Patriots/Dolphins 8:30: I realize this series total has a favorable "over" trend; however, based on the Patriots eight game stretch allowing 17 points or less coupled with Gronkowski (suspended), big part of their offense, out, I'll opt to stay "under". And the Dolphins have no where been an offensive juggernaut this season and a prime time flop. For NE, heavy "under" trends on the road. For Miami, their defense has been poor opening up the door for top heavy in "overs". The Dolphins are, however, 2-5 O/U at home against a team with a winning road record. I believe this one is set a bit high and we'll stay "Under" tonight. 

Ravens/Steelers 8:30: This has historically been a tight series with the dog covering 4 of the last 5. Ravens did get embarrassed in Week 4 at home 26-9. Ravens, however, have been coming on strong winning 4 of their last 5 games and have played well in Pittsburgh 4-1-1 ATS. Ravens lead the league in takeaways at 29 and have held Antonio Brown in check in this series. I do realize Ravens' best corner Jimmy Smith (Achilles) is out but negated with Smith-Schuster out for Pitt. Ravens will do some creative coverages again to limit Antonio Brown. On the other side of the ball is where the Ravens have started to show some life: Flacco's been hitting his mark and RB Alex Collins is surely helping the cause. Let's not forget the Steelers' great Mike linebacker Shazier (back) out and that's a huge loss. Pitt just 2-5 ATS off MNF.  Ravens the call.

Seahawks/Jaguars 4:25: Pete Carroll always finds a way for his troops to stay in games and no different here. Sure, Seattle has a few key injuries (Chancellor, Sherman) and Wagner and Bennett are questionable; at the same time, it is December football and no one is completely healthy with the Jags having their share of injuries too. I'm not completely sold on the Jaguars who suffer the Jekyll and Hyde personality with a 1-5 ATS ledger off an ATS win. And their December ledger is nothing to write home about at 40-54 SU. The Jaguars' defense has been awesome with an awesome sack percentage without blitzing; however, the Seahawks took care of one of the best NFL defensive units last week against Philadelphia; today, Russell Wilson (MVP frontrunner) and company should find a way to work the weakness of the Jaguars' secondary. On the other end of the spectrum, with the game is on the line, Bortles is not the guy you want running the show. I'll gladly take the points with the Seahawks who are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road tilts and 5-1 in Week 14. 

Vikings/Panthers 1:00: Vikings have been rolling on both ends of the ball but this will be their toughest test since Pittsburgh. Carolina's defense was embarrassed at New Orleans last week and will be up for the task today. Sure, Panthers' QB Keenum has been great filling the role as the starter but won't have an easy time against a hungry Carolina defense eager to not only atone for last week's crappy performance but for last year's 22-10 loss to the Vikings in Charlotte. And Cam Newton, who's thrown 6 TD passes with 0 INTs over his last 3 games, gets his C Kalil back for this one. Panthers worked blitz pick-up religiously this week in preparation for the aggressive #2 ranked Vikings' defense. Vikings sacked Newton 8 times last year. Newton does have TE Olsen back for this one to help. Panthers a sweet 6-0 ATS at home off SU/ATS loss vs a non-division opponent and 7-0 ATS as a dog vs an opponent off a SU dog win. Panthers and the points the call.

Saints/Falcons 8:25: The road team in this series is 4-1 ATS and I'm not fighting that trend. New Orleans has put the right pieces in place to be a legitimate playoff contender whereas the Falcons have fallen off a notch or two. New Orleans run game is cooking with Ingram (toe) and super rookie Kamara; consequently, Brees is able to work the play action game. Sure, Falcons secondary get back a few important players but still not sold on their run stop unit which gave up chunks of yardage to Minnesota last Sunday. On the other hand, Saints sack man - Cameron Jordan can work the Falcons' OG void with Levitre (biceps) out. And with Saints' corner Lattimore (ankle) most likely a go, I don't see a shut down on Julio Jones - who underachieved Sunday, but a containment. Falcons do have a nice run game with Freeman but not utilized to the extent he was last year under Shanahan. And Falcons' HC Quinn just 1-6 ATS as a greater than .500 team off a SU favorite loss; moreover, 1-9 ATS vs an opponent off a division game. Saints the call. 

Redskins/Cowboys 8:25: Can't back a Cowboys team that's scored in single digits over last  three games. Sure, former Redskin - Alfred Morris is doing a fine job grinding out 4.5 YPC; however, Elliot would have most likely took some of those second level runs to the house. Prescott desperately misses him; moreover, injuries to top personnel along the Cowboys' offensive line has Prescott throwing 5 INTs over last 2 games; that's one more than all of last year. And Dez Bryant has lost a step and Norman should keep him quiet. Defensively, the Cowboys may have Sean Lee (hamstring) back but secondary issues (0 INTs last 29 possessions) and front 7 problems (0 sacks last 27 possessions) offer no quick fix. Redskins' QB Cousins has thrown for 625 yards, 6 TDs, 0 INTs in last games vs Dallas. And he should have LT Trent Williams (knee) back to protect his back. 'Skins 7-1 ATS in November, 12-4 ATS on road, 9-1 ATS in Dallas; moreover, throw in earlier season 33-19 revenge and we got a play on Washington, even despite injuries. 

Texans/Ravens 8:30: Hard to go against Ravens on prime time; after all, they're 11-1 at night at M&T Bank Stadium and 5-1 ATS on MNF. Ravens will most likely have LT Ronnie Stanley back to keep DE Clowney at bay. Defensively, top graded CB Jimmy Smith should be able to shadow Houston's top playmaker Hopkins. And Houston's QB Savage, making his 5th start, had his best game at home vs the Cardinals last week; however, on the road against a top tier defense will be trouble. And hybrid LB/DE Suggs has historically been a prime time monster and should work LT Chris Clark. Texans' HC O'Brien a poor 3-9 ATS off a SU win; moreover, he's just 1-7 ATS as a dog off a double-digit SU win. With the Texas a MNF flop at 1-9 ATS, we'll look for Flacco to show up and bring home a win and cover for Baltimore. 

Panthers/Jets 1:00: Panthers the trendy pick here after blowout win against Miami leading in to their bye-week. And, of course, they get their All-Star TE Olsen back. Nevertheless, we'll go with the home strong Jets who have played very well in NY and been in virtually every game this season after a rough 0-2 start. McCown has completed 69% of his passes (2nd in AFC) and comfortable with WR Robby Anderson, RBs Powell and Forte. And defensively, Jets have held last three foes to under 90 yards rushing. Jets are at +1 turnover margin thanks to a ball hawking secondary with 10 INTs. Carolina, however, sports a minus 7 turnover margin with Cam Newton tossing 11 INTs. Carolina has struggled in NY and just 2-4 ATS off a bye week. Home team 3-0-1 ATS in this series and we'll take the points with New York. 

Titans/Colts 1:00: Go back to October 16th when the Colts were banged up yet covered for 59 1/2 minutes against the Titans until RB Henry broke loose for a meaningless 72 yard run with 47 seconds remaining. Colts are coming off their bye-week pretty healthy. Keep in mind that the Colts covered three straight leading in to their bye - holding foes to an average of just 298 YPG, including almost upsetting Pittsburgh as a 10 point dog. Colts are 18-11 SU off a bye and dangerous as a dog of more than a point at 15-1 ATS! Tennessee, on the other hand, is a money burning 11-23-2 ATS off a SU loss and 0-9 ATS at Indianapolis. And you've lost your shirt consistently betting on Tennessee with a collective 17-46 ATS overall slide. Colts' QB Brissett is doing a bang up job filling in for Luck (shoulder). He's passed concussion protocol and good to go today. We'll look for the Colts to avenge their earlier season loss. 

Chargers/Cowboys 4:30: Can't get myself to take bait and jump on Cowboys. Without Sean Lee, the Cowboys' run-stop-unit horrific. And with the Cowboys injuries on the front line, Bosa and Ingram should eat up Prescott who misses his pal RB Elliot - who also does wonders in the passing game out of the backfield and in blitz pick up. Chargers' defense opportunistic and creating turnovers; should carry over here to set up QB Rivers, who is in a nice rhythm with Keenan Allen. Chargers 5-1 ATS in November, 4-1 ATS on Thursday and gaining momentum. San Diego keeps it rolling. 

Vikings/Lions 12:30: This series has stayed "under" in 7 of the last 8 in this series; however, this line dictates a higher scoring game today. Earlier in the season, these defenses were healthy and slugged it out to a 14-7 Lions' win at Minnesota. Today, Lions' run-stop-unit gashed in back-to-back weeks with Cleveland and Chicago compiling 200+ yards in week 10 and 11, respectively. Lions 29-14 O/U after allowing more than 150+ rushing in previous game. Vikings don't have Cook (ACL) anymore but Murray and McKinnon picking up the slack. And QB Keenum on target with new sensation Thielen along with Diggs and Rudolph. Detroit should have their defensive struggles; at the same time, the Vikings thin at corner now with Rhodes (calf) laboring. And Stafford has been rolling in the national spotlight games.  Lions 5-1 O/U on Thursday and we'll stay with that trend here. 

Falcons/Seahawks 8:40: Got off the Seahawks last week and covered by a hook with Arizona. Tonight, I'm getting back on Seattle which is 7-0 ATS on MNF as favorites of less than 10 points. Seattle is listed at +1 in some sportsbooks and as high as -1.5 at others. I realize the Seahawks have injuries they're dealing with; most notably, Richard Sherman (Achilles) out for season; however, Pete Carroll prepares his players well and C Jeremy Lane is up for the task. Sure, Julio Jones has had some big games vs Seattle but Carroll will figure out how to limit his catches. Remember, Seattle gets back Earl Thomas (hamstring) and that's a huge plus. Atlanta, however, will be without RB Freeman (concussion) and the Falcons' run game isn't what it was last year; as a matter of fact, Falcons' offense averaging a dozen less points than the 39 PPG put up last year. And the coaching changes show in their production for the Falcons are on a 1-5 ATS slide. Sure, they're coming off a blowout of Dallas but the Cowboys are hurting now as evidenced by their blowout loss at home Sunday night vs Philly. We'll look for the Seahawks' underrated QB Russell Wilson to get it done now that TE Graham (6 TDs in last 5 games) and Baldwin are targeted heavily. Falcons just 6-13 ATS off a SU win of 14+ and lost 4 of last 5 road games ATS. Seahawks get the revenge from last year's NFC Divisional Road Playoff loss.  

Lions/Bears 1:00: Like my chances with the Bears who are 8-1 ATS off a SU loss vs an opponent off back-to-back SU/ATS; moreover, 7-0 ATS at home off back-to-back SU losses vs division opponent off double digit SU win. The Lions could easily be peaking at their big divisional showdown against Minnesota on Thanksgiving. And keep in mind that the Lions' run-stop-unit got run roughshod over last week at home vs Cleveland - giving up 201 yards (6.1 YPC)! Remember, Jordan Howard ran for 197 (5.5 YPC) in two games vs Detroit last year. Bears' QB Trubisky off his best outing (297 yards). Bears' DC Fangio will keep QB Stafford on his heels. Stafford puts up mediocre numbers against Chicago with a 22:17 TD/INT ratio. Lions just 7-18-2 ATS after scoring 30+. Bears the call. 

Rams/Vikings 1:00: Rams a big winner for us this year and we'll continue to ride them here. Offense clicking on all cylinders with Goff especially efficient on the road with 10 TD passes and 0 INTs. And he surely has the great supporting cast of linemen, receivers and backs to keep him and the Rams' offense humming. Surely Minnesota's defense will be quite challenging but not impenetrable; after all, Kirk Cousins work the secondary last week despite a patchwork Redskins' offensive line. Defensively, Rams in top tier across the board including #1 in takeaways. DC Wade Phillips should run a good defensive scheme against former Ram - Case Keenum (9 starts last year). We'll look for Rams to continue their road run.

Bucs/Dolphins 1:00: Dolphins are a prime time flop but should be fine here. QB Cutler has shown progress in finding receivers over last few weeks and RB Drake (196 scrimmage yards last 2 games) has been a strong check down receiver for him. We'll look for Landry and Julius Thomas to have big games today; after all, TB has trouble rushing the passer and a suspect secondary. On the other hand, TB's backup QB Fitzpatrick, coming off a win at home vs the Jets, should resort back to his old ways as a poor traveler. And the Miami defense, which was horrific Monday, should show pride and perform well today. Miami 9-3-1 ATS after allowing 350+ yards in previous game. Miami the call. 

Ravens/Packers 1:00: There's a reason why the Ravens are a slight favorite here on a field they haven't won on beyond this century (0-4 ATS). Ravens are a well rested bunch off a bye week and getting healthy. As we know this season, teams off a bye are 11-4; Baltimore is a sweet 7-2 ATS off a bye under Harbaugh, including 2-1 ATS on the road. They're also 8-1 ATS laying more than a point with rest. And QB Flacco is getting back a few weapons this week in RB Woodhead and WR Maclin. On the other hand, GB coming off a win but even more banged up. The Packers' O'Line has surrendered 30 sacks (bottom tier of NFL) this year and have their versatile QB Hundley laboring with a hamstring issue. Like the ball hawking secondary of Baltimore; moreover, the stingy run stop unit of Baltimore should handcuff GB into forced east/west passing with their top two running backs banged up. Baltimore the call. 

Titans/Steelers 8:25: Steelers underachieved last week and they know it. We'll look for Pittsburgh to deliver on prime time; after all, Pittsburgh is 3-1-1 ATS on Thursday Nights and Roethlisberger sports the best QB rating in the NFL on prime time since 2015 with a 121.7 rating. I realize Tennessee has covered 5 of the last 7 in this series but haven't played in Pittsburgh since September 2013 when Munchak was patrolling the sidelines for Tennessee. Tennessee has been mediocre in their last three road games losing ATS to Houston, Miami and Cleveland. What is glaring mediocre for Tennessee is their pass defense which ranks 19th in the NFL which contributes to 22nd in the league in points allowed. Steelers' talented skill personnel with RB Bell (204 yards rushing last meeting in 2014), Brown and the emergence of Smith-Schuster should deliver the goods. On the other hand, Mariota continues to battle injuries with a lingering hamstring and now ankle problem; consequently, the formidable Steeler defense should not allow Mariota out of the pocket to display his super versatility. With Titans 7-20 ATS on the road, not to be trusted here vs a good prime time team of Pittsburgh. 

Dolphins/Panthers 8:30: Most of what you read on this one is how good Cam Newton is on prime time, Panthers' defense impenetrable and how they'll stuff the pedestrian offense of Miami which has flopped miserably on MNF (0-7). Yes, the Thursday Night Miami debacle at Baltimore is still fresh in our minds. Nevertheless, I have faith that Adam Gase will have his troops competitive here. The Dolphins still have talent on both sides of the ball and fortunate to get back S McDonald back from his eight game suspension. And Suh (knee) should be good to go. Offensively, the Dolphins actually showed promise last week against Oakland with Cutler having his best game and the running game fueled with Drake and Williams. Dolphins 10-1 ATS as dogs of 2 or more vs an opponent off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. Carolina is not in a great spot here at 2-12 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games and 0-6 ATS before a bye. Value with Miami. 

Patriots/Broncos 8:30: Patriots have trouble scoring in Denver as evidenced by their 16, 24, 18 and 16 points scored, respectively, in their last four visits to the mile high city. Denver still has great corners, a solid pass rush and plays run well. Offensively, however, they're struggling bad while the Patriots have cleaned up their early season defensive flaws allowing an average of 13 PPG over their last four games - resulting in four straight "Unders". Denver is 3-10 O/U at home when the O/U line is less than 47 points. Patriots 4-10 O/U on the road. This series has gone 2-5 O/U in Denver and value still remains with "Under". 

Texans/Rams 4:05: I'm still fading the Texans with Savage as the QB. The offense is reduced considerably without Watson and the Rams' defense isn't forgiving. The Rams' defense allows 19 PPG and sound against the run and ball hawking in the secondary. I don't see Lamar Miller establishing a run game against Aaron Donald and company. On the other hand, the Rams are rolling offensively with a plethora of weapons at the disposal for QB Goff. Rams dropping 33 PPG on teams and now that vertical threat Watkins is getting involved, more upside awaits. Don't see the pedestrian Houston offense trading points effectively here. Texans 1-6 ATS on the road against a team with winning home record. Rams the call. 

Steelers/Colts 1:00: I'm going to avoid the ever abundant trap game rumors and lay the wood with Pittsburgh. Colts, which were our Top Play last week answered the bell well off a loss and whipped the Texans; however, as good as the Colts are off losses, they're that bad off SU wins at 1-9-1 ATS. Steelers pose major matchup problems on both sides of the ball. Roethlisberger has torched the Colts secondary over the last three matchups and Indy's secondary is currently depleted. The Colts' defense allows 29 PPG (last in the NFL) and the run-stop-unit is ripe for the picking as well with a healthy RB Bell coming off a bye. On the other hand, Pittsburgh's defense is strong this season and should create lots of problems for Jacoby Brissett who's doing a good job but surrounded by mediocrity with the exception of T.Y. Hilton. Not enough to stay in this game. We'll look for Pittsburgh to stay focused for a change in this spot. 

Browns/Lions 1:00: Matt Stafford is the highest paid QB in the NFL and he looked every bit worth the money at GB last Monday. Hard to imagine the Browns secondary stopping him and his receiving weaponry. On the other hand, the Browns' lethargic offense (31st in the NFL) goes back to Kizer as the QB to add to more inconsistency. Detroit 7-1 ATS off double digit ATS win  vs opponent off back-to-back SU losses. We'll lay the wood with Detroit. 

Seahawks/Cardinals 8:25: Normally, the Seahawks would be the selection here; after all, they're 7-0 ATS on Thursdays, strong off losses and a strong November team; on the other hand, Arizona is 0-6 ATS on Thursdays vs .500 or greater opponents and hasn't won back-to-back games all season. And surely Drew Stanton is no Carson Palmer during the regular season. Nevertheless, I'm looking for a turning of the trends here. Seahawks are ravaged by injuries to key personnel. Their key secondary signal caller Earl Thomas is hobbling with a hamstring; CB Sherman has an inflamed Achilles; C Lane still out with a thigh injury; DL Bennett (heel); G Joeckel (knee); TE Graham (ankle). And the run game is struggling to begin with without Carson (leg) and now Lacy (groin) won't go. Hard to lay nearly a TD on the road with a team that banged up. The Cardinals' establishing a run game with Adrian Peterson and he should continue to bang out yards against a Seattle defense that's suddenly turning into average vs the run; consequently, Drew Stanton (7-3 SU as starter in relief of Palmer) should go to his weaponry of Fitzgerald, Jaron Brown and John Brown. Dog in this series is 4-0 ATS and we'll take the points. 

Lions/Packers 9:30: Packers' QB issue the obvious biggest concern. Hundley has thrown 4 INTs in 58 career attempts. I believe the bye week will help. GB HC McCarthy 9-1 ATS w/ rest. He had time to work with Hundley, who does have a great skill supporting cast in Nelson, Cobb and Adams; moreover, the run game is starting to click with Aaron Jones. Hundley should be more schooled in his progress and development tonight because Detroit does have a ball hawking secondary. We'll look for McCarthy to work to Hundley's strength with some sprint outs, zone read and RPOs (run-pass-options). On the other hand, Packers' defense getting healthy now that promising rookies Biegel and Adams can help the Pack with its pass rush woes. Detroit has trouble converting in the red zone and the Lions' receivers dropping balls at critical times. Also, run game still struggling. We'll give the edge to the Packers on their home field where Detroit has struggled. We'll take the points.

Atlanta/Carolina 1:00: I like the value with a Carolina team getting a bad rap. They're winning games with defense and nothing wrong with that. Now that Kuechly is back in the fold, they're hitting on all cylinders. Atlanta is not the same offense under OC Sarkisian as it was under Shanahan. Sure, they're accumulating yards but labor on the bottom line - scoring points - averaging just 22 PPG - 15th in the NFL. Julio Jones has been a nightmare for Carolina but the #2 defense in terms of yards allowed has schemed well for him. On the other side of the ball, Cam Newton is struggling and now his top receiver - Benjamin - off to Buffalo. But Funchess is ready to assert himself in that role and don't forget about McCaffrey. Today, Newton and company will figure it out against the Falcons middle of the pack (15th ranked) defense. Triple revenge fueling the fire in Carolina and we'll grab the points with Carolina - which is 4-1 ATS at home vs Atlanta.

Baltimore/Tennessee 1:00: Baltimore, as predicted, off that huge Thursday Night win; however, back on the road and this location should be trouble. Baltimore's 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games and 1-4 ATS after a win by 14+ points.  Flacco passed his concussion protocol and good to go; however, he's struggled virtually all season and mistake laden. Baltimore's defense is surprisingly struggling against the run allowing 130+ YPG! Tennessee, which is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 at home, should get Henry and Murray pounding the rock. And now that #1 draft choice Corey Davis is back in action, Mariota has the vertical threat he needs to make Tennessee's offense even more potent. Tennessee the call. 

Colts/Texans 1:00: Mid week, this line dropped sharply from Hou -11 to -7 on the announcement of QB Watson's injury (ACL). Enter Tom Savage and Houston's explosive offense is now reduced to its early in the season pedestrian attack. Savage was merely an average, at best, QB in college. Now, he does have Will Fuller and a some surrounding skill talent; however, he moves like a drunken alligator in the pocket and has yet to throw a touchdown pass. Clearly, the QB running threat taken out of the equation, which worked so well when Deshaun Watson was running the show. On the other hand, Colts' QB Brissett doing a great job and should guide his bunch into the end zone frequently vs a Texans' defense that's allowing 27 PPG. Sure, Colts are even worse; however, they've played the Texans tough in Texas going 3-0-1 ATS there. And let's not forget HC Pagano's record of 14-2 ATS as a dog of more than 1 point off a SU loss. Indy the call.

Bills/Jets 8:25: A bit of "under" value with this series at 1-5 O/U in the last 6 meetings and the Bills at 0-4 O/U on the road. Buffalo has an opportunistic defense yet manages to hold on to the football with a +14 turnover margin (#1 NFL). And their defense ranks #3 in points allowed. On the other hand, the Jets have shot themselves in the foot repeatedly as evidenced by their dubious 14 turnovers; however, defensively, they're respectable and always in games because of it. Jets are 1-6 O/U after allowing 350+ yards. We'll stay "Under" here. 

Broncos/Chiefs 8:30: On the surface, KC seems like the play to get their game back against a team they swept last year; however, not a fan of the Chiefs' defense which has turned into one of the NFL's worst - 29th in yards allowed. It's apparent they're missing S Eric Berry (Achilles). Broncos play the Chiefs tough at Arrowhead - covering 5 of the last 7 there. We'll look for Jamaal Charles, who ran wild on this field as the Chiefs all time leading rusher, should find more running room tonight. He and C.J. Anderson should open up the play action game for struggling QB Siemian. Broncos are 17-8 ATS off a SU loss. KC is 108 ATS off a SU/ATS loss vs a division opponent off a SU loss. The Chiefs do have the explosive offense, for I've backed them most of the year early in the season; however, Denver's defense is still top notch and that should keep the Chiefs from covering. 

Bears/Saints 1:00: Bears' defense was depleted in linebackers weeks ago vs Minnesota yet still managed to cover; as a matter of fact, they've covered 4 of their last 5 games. DC Vic Fangio has done a sensational job preparing his unit. Over the last two weeks, the Bears' defense have been an opportunistic group forcing multiple turnovers and three defensive scores. Sure, Saints' offense running on all cylinders but they most likely will be without their best receiver - Michael Thomas (knee). And Trubisky is getting comfortable in the system and surely offers a different dimension to the offense with his scrambling ability; moreover, run game with Howard and Cohen is solid and should give the underachieving Saints' defense problems; moreover, Trubisky will have Dontrelle Inman from the Chargers and he'll see action. Bears 8-0 ATS off SU/ATS win vs an opponent off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. 

Panthers/Bucs 1:00: Carolina coming off two losses but should get it back together with All-Pro linebacker Kuechly cleared to play. The Panthers' defense so much better with him in the lineup and a legitimate #1 defense. Offensively, Carolina has to clean up their game. They're minus 8 turnover and that's not the makeup off a playoff team. Newton should, however, help ignite the offense against a TB defense that has trouble rushing the passer. Newton's been under duress virtually all year and should find his MOJO here. Panthers 6-2 ATS in the series. And remember that they're 5-1 ATS on the road and 4-0 ATS in Tampa. Panthers deliver. 

Dolphins/Ravens 8:25: Dolphins starting to roll a bit and QB Matt Moore igniting offense after Cutler went down; however, a few offensive linemen banged up on the Dolphins and their O-Line depth is thin. I'm going to look for the defensive dominance, that the Ravens displayed in their first two games, to return tonight. The concern is the offensive side of the Ravens. Flacco is having another miserable year and his receiving corps isn't much of a help. We'll look for Baltimore to jump start its offense with RB Alex Collins. Baltimore getting bad rap by football world now that they've lost 4 of last 5 SU/ATS; however, don't count them out yet. They've covered 7 straight in this series and in desperation mode to save season.

Redskins/Eagles 8:30: 'Skins are 6-1 ATS in this series and 8-2 ATS in Philadelphia. QB Cousins proved he's ready for prime time when he went into Kansas City on Monday October 2nd and diced the Chiefs secondary for 14 of 24 for 220 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INT; moreover, he could have had another TD and a win and cover had it not been a last minute dropped TD pass by WR Doctson. Washington in revenge mode tonight after losing at home September 10th for their biggest loss of the season. We'll look for Cousins and company to deliver tonight. Philadelphia's secondary has been suspect and the Hogs' O-Line has the ability to ward off the outstanding Eagles' D-Line. RBs' Perine and versatile Chris Thompson running the rock well. Need Crowder and Pryor need to step up their game. On the other hand, underrated Redskins' defense can cause problems against the Eagles' smooth running offense. Surely Josh Norman's (rib) absence keeps this from being a top play, but the 'Skins' secondary deep enough to survive. Washington is a solid 7-1 ATS as a dog vs .500 or greater division opposition. With Washington a strong 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games, I like the points here with Washington.

Chiefs/Raiders 8:25: Raiders not the same potent offense of last year. O Line not dominating LOS while Lynch inconsistent  with little gas in the tank; as a result, the play action game not effective with Carr and company. On the other hand, not happy with Chiefs' defense but I like the coaching corrections on Reid's staff and they'll yield yards but limit points. As for the Chiefs, the #2 offense in the NFL should exploit the repeated uncorrectable weaknesses that the Raiders' defense allows. And even with the acquisition of All Pro LB Bowman, Oakland will have trouble stopping the explosive weapons of KC. Chiefs are 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS in this series and a sweet 11-1 ATS off a SU favorite loss against a less than .500 opponent off a SU loss. Chiefs deliver.

Colts/Titans 8:30: Value with the surging Colts off a win against San Francisco. Sure, they've been blown out on the road against the Rams and the Seahawks; however, keep in mind they traded blow for blow with the Seahawks for just over 3 quarters before costly mistakes did them in. The Colts' QB Brissett is settling in as a versatile weapon and he has a pretty good surrounding cast in T.Y. Hilton and emerging rookie RB Mack. The line reflects the presence of Mariota tonight. He has the hamstring issue and that can linger for a season. And DeMarco Murray is struggling to gain ground. Titans want to involve Derrick Henry more. When he carries more than 8 times, they've won. OC Robiskie will most likely pound the rock with him. I'm going to look for the Colts' defense to step up. They haven't put together a full 4 quarters of quality ball yet but overdue. Colts have owned this series at 10-1 ATS and getting too many points here. Colts are 7-1 ATS on the road vs a less than .500 team seeking revenge. And the Titans are 1-6 ATS after scoring less than 15 points. Colts a strong 7-1 ATS vs opponent with revenge on MNF. Take the points.

Rams/Jaguars 4:05: Who would have thought the Rams would be one of the most prolific scoring teams in the NFL at this point of the season with 30.4 PPG? A revamped offensive line, some good off season acquisitions for skill personnel and good coaching. We'll look for Gurley and company to work the Jaguars' shaky run-stop-unit. Last week, the Jaguars sacked Roethlisberger 10 times! Jaguars have been a puzzle. They've looked like world beaters one week and lost the next. They've alternated wins and losses since opening week -- in which I had them pegged to beat Houston. Remember, HC Doug Marrone sports just a 2-9 ATS mark off a SU dog win when facing a non division opponent. And he's 1-7 ATS vs a non division opponent off a SU loss. Today, I'm fading a Jaguars team that's 14-24 ATS in October and just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 at EverBank Field. We'll look for savvy LA DC Wade Phillips to dial up some heat on Fournette and company. Surely, QB Bortles has been less than stellar off big wins. Rams 11-5-1 ATS in week 6 and we'll roll with them.

Browns/Texans 1:00: Texans have been historically sluggish in October and just 1-5-1 ATS in week 6. The Browns are starting to get value and have been good in this spot at 4-1 ATS in week 6. Brownies are also 19-7-1 ATS on the road vs a team with a losing home record. Now, I realize how good QB Watson has been for Houston; however, Browns' defense not all that bad - 5th in NFL yielding yards - and Myles Garrett, coming off a 2 sack performance, is healthy and LB Jamie Collins (concussion) should be back. On the other hand, Texans' defense decimated by injuries to key players. J.J. Watt (leg) and OLB Mercilus (pec)  on the I.R. The Texans yield yards and allow 26 PPG. The Browns look like they'll settle on second year man Kevin Hogan at QB. He went 16 of 19 for 194 yards last week. Browns need to engage the wide-outs more for RB Duke Johnson is their leading receiver! It will help that Clowney (knee) is struggling to stay healthy again and that corners Kareem Jackson and Jackson have hamstring and groin issues their dealing with. And offensively, big play receiver Will Fuller has that hamstring problem coming back. We'll look for the Browns to hang tight. 

Lions/Saints 1:00: New Orleans in a good spot. The well rested Saints are a sweet 8-1 ATS off a bye week and 8-2 ATS in week 6; moreover, teams off a bye week that followed a game played in London are 8-0-1 ATS since 2015. The Saints' defensive talent from off season acquisitions and through the draft is finally starting to gel as anticipated. New Orleans has allowed only 13 points collectively over their last two games. Saints' defense geared to shutting down Stafford and company which ranks in the lower tier of the NFL in yards produced. The Saints' Brees and company bring the 4th ranked offense to the field and looking to exploit Detroit's secondary that's starting to show signs of attrition. And top run stuffer Ngata (biceps) out won't help allay a defense that is dropping each week. Today, the Saints have revenge in mind from a good Lions team that came in to Superdome last season and won 28-13. We'll ride the stats and the Saints who are 16-5 ATS in October. 

Eagles/Panthers 8:25: Both teams playing great but got to go with surging Panthers here. Newton has been sizzling the last two weeks at 137.2 passer rating and fortunately getting good work out of reserve TE Ed Dickson filling in for injured Greg Olsen. In addition, like the Panthers O-Line helping move the football despite injury to RB Stewart. And the Eagles' pass defense ranks near bottom of the NFL. On the other hand, I do realize Wentz is on fire too. He's making accurate throws on 3rd down and leading team well; however, Panthers' defense a different animal. Panthers are #1 in NFC in yards allowed and with a healthy LB Kuechly and the resurgence of ageless Julius Peppers, it's going to be difficult to accumulate points for the Eagles. And having starting RT Lane Johnson (out) won't help. And remember, the Eagles started hot last year before fading fast and hard. For their first tough road test, I'm looking for the Eagles to stumble in this spot. Eagles 1-5 ATS on the road against a .500 or over team. Panthers solid in October at 12-5 ATS. Let's buy that 1/2 a point if available to be on the safe side here because historically the Panthers have not been a good Thursday Night team.

Vikings/Bears 8:30: Injuries on both teams make this a difficult selection process. Vikings' QB Bradford (knee) is back but on borrowed time with lingering soft tissue damage. And the fact he doesn't have Delvin Cook (ACL) in backfield and relying on backups Murray and Mckinnon doesn't give me confidence in their offense. Furthermore, the Vikings' O Line struggled to protect Case Keenum in Pittsburgh, which was their only road game thus far. Keenum was under pressure 46% of his passing attempts. Now at the same time, the Bears are decimated a LB now that the latest Willie Young (triceps) won't play. I'm looking for Bears' DC Vic Fangio to dial up some creative coverages to put the younger reserves in the best position. On the other hand, I do like QB Trubisky who makes his pro debut. Trubisky has the quickness and elusiveness to run more sprint out, boots and waggles. That will only help the already strong run game of the Bears with running backs Howard and Cohen. I also like the fact the Bears are 11-3 ATS at home vs Minnesota and seeking revenge from last season's final game in which they were pounded 38-10 in Minnesota. Bears are 11-2 ATS at home w/revenge off a double-digit ATS loss. With Minnesota sporting a poor MNF traveling record at 1-6 ATS, and 1-7 ATS as a division road favorite off SU/ATS loss, we'll take the points. 

Packers/Cowboys 4:25: Last October, the Packers came in to Dallas decimated with injuries and were blasted. Of course, Green Bay got revenge in the playoffs. Today, Green Bay's defense healthy and equipped to handle Dallas, which has dropped off a few notches in offensive production. And the Packers had an additional three days of rest which gives them an edge. GB is a sweet 9-1 ATS with rest and 11-1 ATS as a .500 or greater dog against a .500 or greater non-division opponent in October. Dallas defense has fallen off in production as it was torched by Los Angeles last week. Not going to be easier with Aaron Rodgers running the show today. GB the call. 

Ravens/Raiders 4:05: Not sold on the Raiders' defense and now their offense is sputtering. Oakland's offense is 28th in the league and that's with Derek Carr! Now that Carr is sidelined with back fractures, EJ Manuel steps in. And we know in recent times how backup QBs in the Raiders' offense have done. Baltimore still has a respectable defense and I'm going to look for the Ravens to get their sputtering offense in gear here. Flacco has had success against the Raiders to the tune of 1,023 yards with 6 TDs and 2 INTs over 3 games. In October, the Ravens are a sweet 7-1 ATS as a road dog off a double-digit ATS loss. Ravens the call.

Cardinals/Eagles 1:00: Cardinals not as bad as line indicates and Philadelphia not as good as line indicates. You do remember how Philadelphia shot out of the gate strong at 3-0 before losing 9 of their next 11. I don't know about another free fall for them but they should have trouble in this spot. Arizona is 6-0 ATS in this series and Arians sports a superb 19-6 SU/ATS mark vs an opponent off a SU/ATS win. Moreover, the Cardinals are 11-1 ATS on the road vs a .700 or greater non division team. Arizona defense showing gradual signs of improvement. On the other hand, Philadelphia's pass defense in the bottom tier of the NFL and vulnerable here; after all, Carson Palmer has rung up some big numbers on the Eagles (905 yards with 6 TDs). We'll take the points.

Patriots/Bucs 8:25: Both these teams exhibiting weaknesses defensively but productive offenses; consequently, still value with the Over. TB ranks near the bottom of the NFL in pass defense and Tom Brady (10 TD/0 INT last 3 games) should dissect  the Bucs' secondary. On the other hand, QB Winston leading the NFL's #3 ranked pass offense with plenty of weaponry. New England's secondary has not communicated well, out of position and poor in pursuit angles. That is uncharacteristic of a Bill Belichick coached defense and should be corrected sooner than later; however, with a short week of prep for a defense that's given up 30+ PPG in 3 of 4 games, that's unlikely tonight. TB 7-0 O/U on Thursdays while the Pat's are 5-1 O/U in its last 5 vs the NFC South. Over it is. 

Redskins/Chiefs 8:30: The Chiefs have been great for me thus far with three straight wins out of the gate; however, a bit concerned here against a good road team in Washington. The Redskins have covered 10 of their last 12 road games. Washington has a run game cooking with versatile Chris Thompson and can pound the Chiefs with Perine too. They even get RB Kelley back for this one. Keep in mind that the Chiefs are yielding defensively (27th ranked in total yards) including 19th in the league against the run. The Redskins' ground game has opened up the pass nicely for Cousins. He's been hitting Thompson, TE Vernon Davis as his favorites. And he'll probably have TE Jordan Reed (shoulder) back tonight. KC misses Eric Berry (Achilles) in the secondary. On the other hand, the Redskins' defense did an outstanding job vs Oakland last week and have the personnel to limit KC. Josh Norman will still need help with explosive Tyreek Hill but Washington overall defensively is sound and aggressive to disrupt Alex Smith and limit Kareem Hunt - whom each have been brilliant thus far. Nevertheless, we'll look for the Redskins to stay in this one. Washington is an amazing 9-1 SU and 8-1 ATS following consecutive wins when facing an AFC West opponent. These teams haven't met since 2013 but are far different in their personnel. Washington the call. 

Colts/Seahawks 8:30: Good spot for the Seahawks on the Prime Time slot where Pete Carroll has thrived. Seattle is overdue for a big game and it should come here. Indy is feeling good after squeaking by the struggling Browns; however, a significant step up at the noisiest venue in the NFL for QB Brissett. Seattle defense was embarrassed last week in Tennessee and eager to atone for that tonight on national TV. T.Y. Hilton, who caught 153 yards and a TD should be locked down by Richard Sherman. And the fierce Seattle pass rush should win the battle of the LOS against a struggling Colts' offensive line. Defensively, the Colts are allowing a generous 30 PPG and that's the perfect elixir for a Seattle offense on the verge of gaining momentum. Seattle is a sweet 22-6-2 ATS after passing for more than 250 yards previously. Seattle has also proven to bounce back strong off SU losses at 7-2 ATS. They've also covered 5 of their last 7 home tilts. Seattle rolls.

Steelers/Ravens 1:00: We'll write off the disastrous performance of the Ravens in London last week. Ravens, after two impressive division wins, laid an egg against the Jaguars who always manage to be sharp in London. In games 1 thru 4, Baltimore is a sweet 8-0 ATS at home off a double-digit SU loss. The Ravens have also won 6 straight at home and they're 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 in this series. Sure, the offense is sluggish; as a matter of fact, worst in the NFL in terms of yardage production; however, Pittsburgh defense in the lower tier defensively against the run. We'll look for Baltimore OC Trestman to find the answers to spark the Ravens' offense today. On the defensive end, we'll look for Baltimore to get back to their division defensive toughness they exhibited the first two weeks. Baltimore's having trouble getting RB Bell generated and WR Bryant (illness) still sluggish. Pitt is 2-9 ATS as a .500 team on the road vs a division opponent off a SU loss of more than 14 points. In this closely contested rivalry where the underdog is 4-0, we'll gladly side with Baltimore. 

Jaguars/Jets 1:00: Not sold on the Jets which are 1-5 ATS off a SU win. And NY will most likely be without versatile RB Forte (turf toe). I was on the Jaguars on opening day when they delivered a beat down in Houston to the Texans. I'm jumping back on them here for they're 5-1 ATS in NY. And RB Fournette is pounding the rock (199 yards rushing); consequently, QB Bortles is flourishing. And I'm liking the Jaguars' defense which is significantly better than the Jets. Remember, Josh McCown is a mere 3-22 in his last 25 starts and he's not going to have an easy time here vs an aggressive Jaguars front 7. Jets a poor 0-5 ATS against an opponent off a double digit ATS win. Jaguars the call. 

Titans/Texans 1:00: Teams that play Seattle the previous week are usually banged up because of Seattle's extreme physical play; consequently, they struggle the following week on the road with a 47-61 ATS mark. Titans have not had success at Houston losing 6 of the last 7 ATS there. And Tennessee is a ridiculously bad 4-21-2 ATS vs a team with a losing record. I like what I saw with Deshaun Watson last week at New England. The rookie did everything he could to pull out a win. He should have an easier time at home against a Tennessee pass defense that is in the lower tier of the NFL - allowing 275 YPG. I'm going to look for the underachieving Texans' defense to step up their game today as well. Houston is tough on division foes at 11-2 ATS off back-to-back away games. And they're 6-1 ATS after allowing more than 35 points. Houston the call.

Bears/Packers 8:25: Packers' offensive line banged up and the offense should struggle against a respectable Bears' defense on a short week. RB Montgomery should once again struggle to generate running yards. And the Packers' receiving corps not fully healthy either as Cobb and Jordy Nelson working to get healthy. On the other hand, the Bears have the potent run game behind Howard and Tarik Cohen; however, Packers don't respect the Bears' QB Glennon and should yield yards but limit points in a variety of defensive packages DC Capers puts on the field. This series has gone 1-4 O/U in its last 5 at Green Bay. We'll look for a defensive game on a short week. 

Cowboys/Cardinals 8:30: Cowboys got their asses handed back to them and lots of squares jumping on Dallas to come back strong tonight. I'm not falling for the bait especially with Garrett's record as a road favorite. Garrett's a money burning 22-38 ATS laying wood on the road and the Cowboys are a mere 1-4 ATS in Arizona. Sure, the Cardinals have been less than impressive in their two road outings and Palmer doesn't have much left in his regular season tank let alone playoff tank; however, Palmer is 15-11 ATS as a home dog in his career and in the Cardinals first game back at Phoenix Stadium, he should settle in against a banged up Dallas secondary. Despite the loss of David Johnson, the Cardinals still have some weaponry of the likes of Fitzgerald and J.J. Nelson. And defensively, Cardinals do their best work at home. Arians is 6-1 ATS as a dog vs opponent off double digit ATS loss and he's 10-2 ATS as a dog of 4 or less off a non-division game. We'll tread lightly since both of these teams have laid clunkers on MNF. Home dog way to go.

Chiefs/Chargers 4:25: Andy Reid usually finds a way to dispatch the lower tier teams of the conference and, surely in the division. Chiefs 10-1 ATS vs less than .500 division opponent off a non division game. And Reid finally has some great offensive skill impact players: explosive vertical threat Tyreek Hill, newfound super RB Kareem Hunt and the second best tight end in the NFL Kelsey. And the offensive line is doing an outstanding job while Alex Smith is enjoying a breakout year: 78% 5 TDs/0 INT. Defensively, Derrick Johnson has made it back from injury and Justin Houston and Chris Jones are ruthless as pass rushers. Reid has owned the AFC West and the declining Chargers are not standing in their way. QB Rivers has struggled against KC to the tune of 5 TD/7 INTs. Chargers are finding new ways to lose games and are not welcomed in Los Angeles -- attendance low. With SD just 1-7 ATS as a home dog of 3 or more with revenge against an opponent over .400, KC the call. 

Seahawks/Titans 4:05: Most analysts and prognosticators on the trendy pick - Tennessee. I'm going opposite with not so trendy Seattle. Yes, offensive line problems has made it a run for your life problem for Russell Wilson. Nevertheless, I'm looking for Pete Carroll to do what he's done so well in the past: take the right corrective action for offensive problems. We'll look for O Line coach Cable to keep chipping away at the offensive line improvement. On the other hand, the Seattle defense continues to find ways of making big plays and I see that occurring Sunday. Seattle is 16-5 ATS in Week 3, 6-2 ATS off an ATS loss, and 5-1 ATS after allowing 150+ rushing yards. Tennessee is 17-35-1 ATS off a SU win and a disastrous 0-13 ATS off a double-digit SU win! Seattle the call. 

Rams/49ers 8:25: Rams have more offense this year but SF will be its toughest test. San Francisco has an imposing front line that can get after the QB and Goff is especially vulnerable on the road. I do realize the 49ers will have to do some shuffling in their secondary with Eric Reid out. Nevertheless, 49ers' defense as an aggregate up for the task. On the other hand, the pedestrian offensive attack of SF (last in the NFL) needs RB Carlos Hyde to get cooking. Hyde, who had 124 yards last week, should be limited by the corrective measures Rams' DC Phillips made after the Rams' defense got gashed last week against Washington. Aaron Donald and company should show improved play Monday. SF 1-11 O/U as division home dogs of less than 10 points. Rams have gone 3-11 O/U in their last 14 road games. This series is 0-4 O/U in SF and 1-4 O/U overall. With these coaching staffs closely connected in a variety of ways, we'll stay "under". 

Detroit/New York 8:30: Heavy "under" trends coupled with two pretty good defenses give us value with staying under 42.5. Detroit is 7-20 O/U on the road, 2-8 O/U on MNF, 0-7 O/U off a SU win and 1-13 O/U on the road vs opponent off a SU loss. NYG 2-7 O/U off a SU loss of 14+, 0-4 O/U last 4 home. The Lions' defense did a nice job against Arizona in Week 1. They shut down the run game, 4.77 yards per play, and a total of 308 yards. Pretty good considering it went to OT. They'll face a Giants' offense that is suffering on account of not addressing the offensive line issues of last season. Still no run game and Manning doesn't have time to get the ball downfield in passing downs. On the other hand, the NY defense remains solid and the strength of the team. At home, we'll look for them to limit Stafford and company. Detroit struggles with the run game and that should allow the Giants to do some creative stunts and blitzes keep Stafford under duress. We'll stay "under". 

Packers/Falcons 8:30: Big revenge game for the Packers as they were embarrassed 44-21 in the NFL Championship in Atlanta last season. Things have changed since. Falcons revamped their coaching staff and as expected, didn't look sharp last week. On the other hand, Packers, which were decimated by secondary injuries last January, strengthened their secondary through free agency and the draft. The Packers patched up some offensive line issues and it showed against Seattle last week as they were able to move the ball with converted receiver Ty Montgomery. Packers 6-1 ATS as dogs over 2 points vs. .666 or greater opponent. With the road team 5-1 ATS in the last 6 in this series, we'll look for the Packers to create problems at Atlanta's new stadium.

Cowboys/Broncos 4:25: Cowboys' defense physically beat up a pedestrian Giants' offense. Broncos offer a more powerful offensive attack with Siemian at the controls. The ground game was cooking with Anderson and Charles, and the pass attack was solid. In other words, Denver has a stable offense but not explosive. My concern is the Denver defense which lost some key players from last year's top ranked defense under former coordinator Phillips (now in LA). The Chargers rallied late on the Broncos and the Denver secondary had several schematic breakdowns. The Cowboys' offense is much more explosive and should be able to take advantage of the weak secondary spots. Cowboys 4-0 ATS in Week 2 and should be able to deliver.

Dolphins/Chargers 4:05: Chargers not thoroughly accepted by the fans of Los Angeles. And it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't fill the 30,000 seat StubHub Center. Chargers on a short week off their MNF loss. Miami, on the other hand, had extra rest because of the hurricane. The Dolphins practiced last week in Oxnard, CA; therefore, they're well acclimated to the west coast and the time change. A concern is the Chargers 0-8 ATS mark vs an opponent with rest and the 1-8 ATS off a SU/ATS division loss in September. The Dolphins have covered 3 of the last 4 in this series including last year's 31-24 win. QB Cutler is not a favorite but Adam Gase worked with him extensively during his best year's in Chicago and should have him ready. He surely has a good supporting cast with RB Ajayi and a talented receiving corps. Defensively, Miami is strong along the line with Suh and sack master DE Wake. Not optimistic about the direction the Chargers are going. And with Gase 4-1 as a dog of less than 6 points, we'll grab the points with the Dolphins.

Texans/Bengals 8:25: Both of these offenses were clunker driven last week. Cincinnati's QB Dalton was sacked five times and threw four interceptions. The run game managed a pedestrian 77 yards. Houston fumbled three times, suffered an amazing 10 sacks and managed just 110 passing yards through the air; as a result, QB Savage was benched and most likely we'll see Deshaun Watson thrown in the fire after he led Houston to their only touchdown. Tonight, no quick fix in offing. Defensively, both of these teams are in good shape. Houston held Jacksonville to 280 yards to 4.7 YPP (yards per play) while Cincinnati held Baltimore to 268 total yards at 4.2 YPP. This series is 0-4 O/U with total point output of 32, 35, 16 and most recently last season 22. Bengals are 3-8 O/U on Thursdays and 0-4 O/U in Game 2. Houston 1-6 O/U vs AFC North. Still value with the "Under".

Saints/Vikings 7:10: Lots of action going on Saints but I'm fading them. Can't side with a defense ranked 31st in the league in points allowed last season. Sure, DC Allen brought in some fresh coaching faces and old (Nolan) coaching faces along with some new player additions bolstering the secondary; nevertheless, the Saints' defense has been at the bottom of the league for three straight years and I'm not a believer in Allen's schemes. Saints have flopped as road dogs in 5 of their last 6 on MNF. Minnesota has five Pro Bowl players on a defense in the upper echelon of the league and two lockdown corners in Rhodes and Waynes; consequently, they can lock down Michael Thomas and Ten Ginn Jr. with Snead suspended. Vikings also have a defensive line that can get after the QB which gives Zimmer extra flexibility on creative stunts without selling out with frequent blitzes. Of course Adrian Peterson acquired in the offseason to help bolster the run game, but the Vikings are clearly up for the task with a strong run-stop-unit. Offensively, the Vikings' QB Bradford will have extra skill weaponry to aid leading WR Diggs. Latavius Murray was a fine addition and top draft pick Dalvin Cook will bolster the run game they lacked last year. With Minnesota 22-7 ATS at home, we'll lay a field goal with the more well rounded team.

Seahawks/Packers 4:25: Heavy action all over the Packers here. I'm going the opposite direction with the vengeful Seahawks. Pete Carroll a sweet 14-1 ATS as a dog with revenge. Seahawks had this one circled on their calendar ever since getting pasted at Lambeau Field 38-10 last December. Today, the Legion of Boom is healthy with key playmaker S Earl Thomas back along with Sherman, Wagner and Chancellor. And with the addition of Sheldon Richardson (Jets), the Seahawks will be fine up front once again. On the other hand, despite Rawls (ankle) questionable, leaner and meaner Eddie Lacy will get a chance to burrow over his former teammates. We'll look for continued improvement in Seattle's weakness -- O Line. Offensive line coach Tom Cable shuffled the line effectively and they're much improved where they were a year ago. Packers' defense was the league worst against the pass last year and despite the acquisitions, will need time for it to improve. Seattle the call.

Raiders/Titans 1:00: Like the Raiders' offense which can trade points with any team in the NFL. Cooper (knee) and Crabtree are healthy and with Marshawn Lynch now pounding the rock, QB Carr should pick up where he left off last season. On the other hand, Titans' offense has some firepower too with improving Mariota surrounded around a strong supporting cast. Raiders' defense still suspect in spots but K-Mack practiced Thursday and should be fine to lead the unit. Raiders are 4-1 ATS in September and 4-1 ATS in Tennessee. Titans a shaky 7-21-2 ATS at home. Value with Raiders who have overcome their Eastern Time zone woes with a 3-0 ATS mark in that role last season!

Jaguars/Texans 1:00: Value added with a Jaguars bunch which should surprise many under new HC Marrone. The Jaguars' defense showed some improvement last year (6th in yards allowed) and should continue their resurgence here. They face a pedestrian offense with Tom Savage at the helm. Remember, Savage was a mediocre QB in college with high expectations at Rutgers, Arizona and Pitt. Sure, he rallied the troops last year for Houston - coming off the bench to help the Texans defeat the Jags SU but not cover the -3'. Today, we got a bolstered Jaguars' offense with bruising #1 draft choice Leonard Fournette. He's got a solid O-Line and a respectable receiving corps with the addition of rookie Dede Westbrook. I know the Texans have the talented defense but they've been shaky early in the season under DC Romeo Crennel. And J.J. Watt coming off two back operations plus spending much of his time doing outstanding volunteer work across the city, may be sluggish; as a matter of fact, I question the focus of the whole team after the devastation in Houston. Surely, helping the city was the center of attention last week. Houston just 1-4 ATS the last 5 at home vs Jacksonville. Jags' Marrone did well (10-4 ATS) against division foes in his tenure with Buffalo. We'll look for a seamless transition here as the road team is 5-1 ATS in this series. 

Chiefs/Patriots 8:30: Value added to the Chiefs who've bolstered their porous run stop unit with the return of defensive captain Derrick Johnson (Achilles). Johnson looked good in preseason work and should help shore up the run-stop-unit which was a weakness after he went down last year on Thursday night win against Oakland. Johnson, Berry and Houston are healthy and that is a big plus for the Chiefs' defense. On the other hand, the Chiefs had to replace RB Spencer Ware (PCL) and rookie Kareem Hunt should fill that role well. QB Alex Smith also has a healthy offensive line, explosive Tyreek Hill and the second best TE in the NFL in Travis Kelce. And KR De'Anthony Thomas can be a game changer. Patriots are still reloading and dangerous, but overvalued here. Chiefs have won 6 straight ATS on the road and I'm really comfortable taking the generous amount here. 

Patriots/Falcons 6:30: At first glance of the opening line, I was a bit surprised; after all, I was thinking New England (-5). I'm going to stand strong by my conviction and stay on New England despite Gronkowski's absence. Yes, I realize Julio Jones and the many other weapons at the disposal of Matt Ryan will be a difficult task, but the best coach in the business in Belichick is the one to have on your side in neutralizing that explosive Falcons' attack. On the flip end, having arguably the greatest QB to stride a Super Bowl playing field on your side is the ultimate comforting feeling. Brady has gotten into rhythm with his cast of receivers and the Patriots' run game is also cooking. Thanks to the Patriots' offensive line coach - Scarnecchia, the Falcons' defense -- which is at times vulnerable, will have its trouble. Scheming, coaching and experience give New England the edge and cover here.

Lions/Cowboys 8:30: After a sluggish season start, Detroit has been a spread darling on a 7-3 ATS run. They have come off two sluggish outings but should do well here. Detroit is a strong 5-1 ATS on MNF and covered 5 of last 6 in this series. Detroit QB Stafford should be able to dissect a vulnerable Cowboys' secondary that has been worked against good QBs with passing games. Detroit has trouble running football but can roll up the passing yards. Detroit a sweet 24-9 ATS after scoring less than 15 points previously. Dallas is historically shaky in this season stretch at 0-5 ATS in December. And they're a disappointing 6-13 ATS at home and 2-8 ATS as a favorite of 3 or more vs a .500 opponent.

Broncos/Chiefs 8:30: Chiefs are normally a great play following a loss under Reid; however, there are concerns on the defensive end. Key defensive components -- LB Derrick Johnson (out) and Justin Houston (questionable w/ Knee) -- are huge as run stoppers and against the pass. Houston is a great pass rusher but don't like that he's slowed with knee problems. Chefs secondary was shaky last week vs the Titans and injuries played a part. Sure, Denver's offense was under fire last week vs New England but I'm going to look for a wake up call instilled tonight. Denver is a strong 15-6 ATS off a SU loss and 14-3 ATS on the road vs division foes. And keep in mind that Denver is 6-1 ATS at KC and seeking revenge from earlier season loss. KC is a money burning 0-7 ATS after allowing 350+ yards and 0-8 ATS as a division home favorite off a SU/ATS loss vs an opponent off a SU loss; furthermore, they're 1-9 ATS off a SU favorite loss vs an opponent with revenge. Denver the call.

Broncos/Chiefs 8:30: Most are pounding the "under" tonight based on the series history and the defensive prowess of these teams; however, at a closer glance, these teams at Arrowhead combined for 63 (2013), 45 (2014) and 55 points last season. Furthermore, 45-21-3 O/U off a SU loss and 7-3 O/U off a double digit SU loss. And this is the lowest total set at Arrowhead all season. The weather is a non factor with unseasonably warm temperatures, light winds and no precipitation projected. KC is an amazing 10-2 O/U at home when the O/U line is less than 40. With key defensive injuries on both sides of ball, we'll look for a prime time surplus in scoring.