Bills/Saints 1:00: Bills catching the Saints at the wrong time. Bills, coming off a huge upset win at Miami now have to enter a dome stadium in which Drew Brees can put up big numbers. Brees should torch a Buffalo defense that's in the bottom quarter of the NFL defending the pass. And TE Jimmy Graham (foot) should be ready to go. And keep in mind that the Saints are 5-0 ATS off a bye week and had time to stew over their last second loss at New England. Furthermore, Rob Ryan had an extra week to prep for Thad Lewis and company. The New Orleans defense is in the upper echelon of the NFL. Moreover, the Saints are a sweet 11-0 ATS at home against a non-conference team off a SU dog win. And the Bills are 0-3 ATS in their last 3 vs New Orleans. Saints the call.

Vikings/Giants 8:40: Both teams banged up, playing poorly and hungry for a win. I believe it will come down to who wins the turnover battle. The Giants' Eli Manning is having a horrible year and surely not getting help from his o-line or turnover laden/ineffective running backs; however, he, unlike his counterpart -- newly acquired Josh Freeman -- has Hall of Fame credentials and usually shines when on the grandest stage. MNF is surely a stage with bright lights. Yes, Freeman is dangerous as a road dog (18-10 ATS) but clearly doesn't have time to get in rhythm with his receiving corps and get comfortable with the offense in this limited time. The Giants have some unique pass rushing talent that has sorely underachieved and should unleash that ability tonight. And I do realize the Giants' run game is in tatters. Peyton Hillis is a quality pick up but needs more time to acquaint himself with the system for plays/blitz pick up. Giants are dummying down the system for him. Giants are 4-1 ATS against a team with a losing road record. And they still have a decent October ledger at 26-11-2 ATS after covering last week at Chicago. Vikings have struck out on MNF at 0-5 ATS and we'll fade them here.

Broncos/Colts 8:25: Great value with Colts in Peyton Manning's return. Colts are dangerous off a loss at 9-1 ATS and very strong on their home field at 7-2 ATS. Moreover, they are strong against teams above .500 at 20-9-2 ATS. Monday wasn't truly indicative of how Indianapolis plays. The Colts are fundamentally sound offensively in which they rarely turn over the ball and should get the run game going with Trent Richardson -- who is overdue to get rolling. Sure, Denver is #2 in the NFL vs the run but primarily because teams fall behind early against Manning & company thus abandoning the run game to go to the air to play catch up. We'll look for Indy to stick to their guns and establish a run game mixed with Luck play action. Denver, in games 5 through 8 are 2-13 ATS as a non division favorite against an opponent off a SU loss. Indy is a dangerous dog of 8 or less against an opponent off a SU win of 14 or more points. Colts!

Seahawks/Cardinals 8:25: Good spot for Arizona coming off a loss at home. The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS off a SU loss and have covered 5 of the last 6 as the home team against Seattle. Carson Palmer is adding strength to the offense at the QB position -- an area deficient the last few years; at the same time, rookie RB Ellington is emerging as the starting back behind an improving O-Line. Arizona is a much more sound team on both sides of the ball at home and should give the Seahawks trouble. Seattle's Pete Carroll is just 1-5 ATS as a road favorite vs an opponent off a double-digit SU loss. The Cardinals beat Seattle last year on this field before getting annihilated 58-0 at Seattle in the last quarter of the season. We'll look for the Cardinals to have guns a blazing tonight in revenge.

Colts/Chargers 8:40: Colts showed their mettle on the road with blowout wins at Jacksonville and incumbent NFC Champ SF. Tonight, I'll look for the Colts, which are coming off a big win over Seattle, to follow up with another strong performance. Andrew Luck is emerging as one of the top QBs in the league and he has a solid supporting cast; moreover, RB Trent Richardson is overdue for a breakout performance against a soft SD run stop unit that yields 4.9 ypc. I realize that the Colts run stop unit struggles but does manage to tighten when it counts most -- in the red zone. Indianapolis possesses a defense in the top quarter of the league in allowing ppg (15.8) while SD is in the bottom tier allowing 26 ppg. Colts have been sharp on MNF at 8-1 ATS and 4-1 in October. They're also 11-4 ATS after scoring 30+. Chargers are 0-6 ATS in October and 0-6 ATS at home with a team with a winning road record. Colts the call.

Giants/Bears 8:25: Neither team can generate any sacks -- both at the bottom of the NFL -- and consequently good QBs are posting big numbers on their defenses, respectively. Manning and Cutler are very capable, when given time, of carving up secondaries. The Giants are 8-3 O/U in October and DC Fewell doesn't have any immediate answer to stopping anyone. New accusation Lb Jon Beason will need time to adjust to system. Bears are 6-0 O/U vs losers and 21-6 O/U after accumulating 350 yards the previous game. "Over" it is!

Jets/Falcons 8:40: I find value with a NY team that possesses a top tier defensive unit. The Jets' defense has kept them in virtually every game this year. The Falcons have injury concerns on both sides of the ball. And offensively have been unable to close as indicated by their poor red zone efficiency. We'll look for NY to limit them tonight. On the defensive side of the ball, the banged up Falcons are struggling to get off the field. Sure, the Jets' offense remains putrid and Gino Smith is not the answer but we'll look for OC Mornhinweg to put Smith in a more favorable position to have success this week. Jets' HC Rex Ryan is 4-0 as a dog of 9+. And NY is 8-2 ATS in the second of back to back road games. Jets the call.

Bills/Browns 8:25: So far, the Bills have been competitive in each game this season; one of the main reasons is DC Pettine utilizing his defensive talent successfully. Buffalo harassed Baltimore's Flacco last week compiling 4 sacks and 5 interceptions. Tonight, we'll look for Pettine to find a way to take away TE Jordan Cameron, who has been a big target for QB Bobby Hoyer. Sure, the Bills are banged up in a few areas including RB; however, QB Manuel has been a playmaker and undaunted on the road. The Browns' defensive has been tough but at times overly aggressive and we'll loo for Bills HC Marrone to find ways to exploit it. Browns just 1-4 ATS in Week 5 and we'll take the points here in a lower scoring game.

Raiders/Broncos 8:40: Injuries and suspensions to defensive personnel, and even some offensive personnel should make this exceed the 'total'. The Raiders will miss SS Branch and Denver QB Manning is sure to exploit that veteran void in the secondary. On the other hand, Denver's LT Ryan Clady (foot) is out and the Raiders bring a strong pass rush (tied for #1 in league in sacks). We'll look for turnovers and explosive plays to be the theme. The Broncos gain Champ Bailey but still are not a great team generating a DL pass rush without Von Miller. And LB Shaun Phillips (back) is questionable. The Raiders are using QB Pryor well with healthy RB McFadden: that's a dangerous combination against any defense, especially if not bringing discipline. Series is 5-2 O/U. Broncos are 21-7-1 O/U at home. Raiders are 5-1 O/U week 3. We'll grab the 'over' here and also take the generous 16 points. Raiders are 8-1 ATS as a division dog of 7+ and covered 7 of last 10 road tilts. Value with Raiders and 'over'.

Steelers/Bengals 8:40: The Steelers were bad in Week 1 with no running game. I don't expect this proud franchise to slumber. They'll find a way to make corrections and be competitive tonight; after all, they're 12-5 ATS following a SU loss and still have one of the top NFL quarterbacks in Roethlisberger. Moreover, a healthy Polamalu under DC LeBeau should find a way to limit explosive Green and company offensively. Remember, the Bengals, a big pre-season favorite, are just 1-12 ATS in September as a favorite off a SU/ATS loss. The Steelers are a sweet 13-2-1 ATS at Cincinnati. We'll look for a few tweaks to the Steelers' offensive line and the welcome back addition of RB Dwyer (resigned) should help the Steelers to be competitive in this one.

Broncos/Giants 4:25: Just when things look bad for the Giants, they seem to crawl out from the depth of ruin. We'll look for NY, which is 9-4 ATS in Week 2, to clean up their game here. With 6 turnovers last week, ball control will be of great importance under Coughlin who is a sweet 8-1 ATS as a dog. And Eli was locked in last week and should carry over against a Von Miller-less Broncos' defense that struggled to generate a pass rush among their d-line. I do realize Peyton Manning will be difficult to stop but the Giants can effectively trade points.

Carolina/Buffalo 1:00: Not sure Mike Shula is a good fit for Cam Newton. Newton struggled last week, albeit against a great Seattle defense, but he was uncomfortable and confused at times when receivers were open. Buffalo wasn't intimidated last week against New England as they came after Brady with a lot of Cover 1. We'll look for them to attack Newton in similar fashion. On the other side of the ball, Buffalo looked good with Manuel at the helm and Spiller behind a good offensive line will add for more positive production for this offense. Bills 12-5 ATS in Week 2 while Carolina a mere 4-10 ATS in September. Bills the call.

Eagles/Redskins 7:10: Chip Kelly will add flair to the Eagles' offense and he has speed to work with in Vick, Jackson, Bryce Brown and LeSean McCoy. Just not sure the Eagles' defense can compliment this fast paced offense. Eagles must adapt to new DC Billy Davis' 3-4 scheme and the personnel is not overly impressive and abundant with youth; consequently, we'll look for some lack of discipline against the RG3 led read option, which requires to guard against with assignment football. On the other hand, the Redskins' have more stability defensively under DC Haslett in his fourth year guiding the defense. LB Brian Orakpo's return will help tremendously. The Redskins also did some off-season bolstering of their secondary and should generate more of a pass rush to improve on their poor pass defense from a year ago. We'll look for the Redskins to make it 4-0-1 ATS in Week 1.

Dolphins/Browns 1:00: Value with the Browns, which should finally have some offensive production with OC Norv Turner guiding along some talented personnel. QB Weeden should flourish in his system. The Dolphins acquired a wealth of new talent in the off season but not sure HC Philbin can mesh that talent this early. Miami is a poor 4-15 SU versus the AFC North. And they're notoriously sluggish in September including 1-5 ATS Week 1. Browns DC Ray Horton should have the defense aggressive and get after QB Tannehill. Browns the call.

Bengals/Bears 1:00: We'll take stability over change here. The Bengals have gradually worked their way back to respectability under HC Marvin Lewis and should be ready for a breakout season with a bruising defense in which Pro Bowl LB James Harrison will enhance. The Bears are in a transition mode with converted CFL coach Marc Trestman running the show. It should be a difficult transition to create instant pass protection for QB Cutler against last season's top pass rushing team in the league bearing down on him. Offensively, the Bengals' underrated QB Dalton, who worked through his sophomore slump and is ready to get out of the gate strong with a solid supporting cast. Bears have reloaded their defense after Urlacher's departure, but it should take time to gel. Bengals are 4-1 ATS at Chicago and we'll roll with them.

Ravens/Broncos 8:30: Hard to get extremely excited at a betting standpoint in this one. I understand that the Ravens have lost a lot of key personnel from last year's Super Bowl winner; at the same time, Denver front office filled areas of concern, including bolstering their receiving corps for Manning. However, the front office of Baltimore has a great history of reloading and have had a lot of success in openers under Harbaugh at 5-0 SU/ATS. And with pass rush specialist Von Miller and veteran corner Bailey out, value diminishes even on the Broncos strong home field. And Baltimore does sport a 3-1-1 ATS mark in Denver. We will, however, tread lightly on Denver, which is in a revenge mode and with a more hungry mindset going into this one.

Baltimore/San Francisco 6:30: I've given myself plenty of reasons change my original selection of the 49ers as the winner/cover of this game, including the Super Bowl dog covering 8 of the last 11; however, I'm staying with SF based a variety of factors: first, the SF offense is brilliantly designed to create an extra blocker through their formations and utilize their strengths of speed and brute force. And the Baltimore defense is a step slow up front to effectively counter the read option. If Baltimore does sell out and bring an extra body in the box, SF's Kaepernick can find the perimeter quick and locate his talented receiving corps. On the other hand, the Ravens offense is cooking too, but Caldwell's play calling has been suspect and predictable. SF brings an outstanding defense to the field, including a fierce pass rush with the Aldon and Justin Smith to disrupt Flacco's vertical game. We'll stay on the 49ers.

Ravens/Patriots 6:30: More than a TD given to a team that has covered repeatedly in recent years in this series? We'll take that team in a series that has been decided by 6 points or less in 5 of the last 6 games. Ray Lewis has been a big part of the resurgence of the Ravens' defense down the stretch of the season. He will surely help in limiting the strong zone and power schemes of the Patriots. And S Ed Reed has been a big factor in keeping pass games at bay. We know Brady is great but Flacco feels underappreciated as a playoff QB and that's well warranted. Flacco has repeatedly got it done on the road in the playoffs and we'll bet on him here. And of course, RB Ray Rice helps open that passing game as well. With the dog and road team at 3-0-1 ATS in this seres, and the Patriots at just 2-7 ATS at home in the playoffs, we'll grab the Ravens.

49ers/Falcons 3:00: Falcons may play well at home but have struggled in the biggest of games on their turf. Remember, over the last few years under Smith at home in the playoffs, they lost in the 2010 season playoffs 48-21 against Green Bay, got smothered by the Giants 24-2 last year, and choked away a 20 point lead to the Seahawks to blow the cover last week. Defensively, the Falcons are second worst in the league on yardage given up following initial hit. And they struggle against mobile QBs. Cam Newton had huge games this season vs them (502 pass/202 rush). And Russell Wilson thrashed them in the second half last week. They face the most dynamic runner after contact yet in Kaepernick. And throw in that Atlanta will spy Kaepernick with athletic Kroy Biermann, which takes away a defender in the secondary and rusher at point of attack during pass plays. Keep in mind Kaepernick can pass with a receiving corps that developed well this year. And throw in the physical front line of SF and Gore running behind it, Atlanta's defense should be on its heels. On the other hand, Atlanta's offense is good, but the SF defense has consistently been good when healthy. And DT Justin Smith appears back in form. We'll roll with SF.

*Best Bet* Green Bay (+3) for 3.5 Units ***'Green Bay/San Francisco 8:00: Took the 49ers in the first matchup and they delivered. This time around, with Kaepernick as QB, we'll fade SF. Not that Kaepernick isn't capable of delivering in post-season, because he is, but because the GB defense has gotten healthier and playing better at this stage of the season, especially now with a healthy Clay Matthews and CB Charles Woodson. It was apparent last week against against mobile Joe Webb that GB had the defensive speed and angles of pursuit to shut down running lanes. On the other hand, veteran QB Aaron Rodgers has a healthy receiving corps and an offensive line that's starting to gell. The SF defense, as good as it is, slid in production down the stretch without key component DT Justin Smith (triceps) and I don't believe he is up to speed as of yet. GB is a sweet 11-4 ATS on the road against a team with a winning home record. SF is a sluggish 1-3-1 ATS in playoff home games. GB has played well against SF at this location at 5-0-1 ATS and we'll take the points.

Bengals/Texans 4:30: I realize the Texans had the Bengals number in recent matches; however, the Texans' production has really fallen off after three strong months of football. Houston's 1-3 ATS slide has them searching for answers. They're run game has lost it's luster and I don't see them recapturing it here against a staunch Bengals' defense; moreover, the Bengals are strong in third and long on account of their outstanding ability to rush the passer. Bengals are on a 7-1 ATS tear and realize it's meaningless if they can't win a playoff game. We'll look for Marvin Lewis to notch his first playoff win. Bengals play well on the road (4-0 ATS run) and will get it done.

Cowboys/Redskins 8:30: With the NFC East title at stake, we get value with the Cowboys here. Sure, they've failed in this role repeatedly, including in 2008 at Philadelphia and last year at New York. However, we're going to look for Dallas to be competitive here in this same season revenge scenario. They've done well on the road against teams above .500 at 4-1 ATS, and they're 20-8 ATS after allowing 30+ points. Tonight, they'll have a few players they didn't have in the first matchup: DeMarco Murray to help fuel the run game (heavy winds expected), and Miles Austin who should help support Dez Bryant and TE Witten as an additional target for Romo. Realize Washington's Griffin has been outstanding but surely DC Ryan had enough time and film to diagnose a viable plan. And the Cowboys' defensive personnel is superior to Washington's, although DC Haslett has schemed well during the 'Skins run. Tonight, we'll look for the Cowboys to deliver. In this series, the dog is 23-6 ATS and the road team is 7-2 ATS.

San Francisco/Seattle 8:30: Seattle is a legitimate contender that I've been riding all year in spots and I'm not getting off the train yet; especially after they've dominated at home (6-0). Yes, I've been on SF all year too, but coming off New England and having to travel up north without one of their top defensive players in Justin Smith will be too much to handle at this strong venue. Seattle's cooking on both sides of the ball. And Russell Wilson is utilized extremely well (11 TD / 1 INT) over the last 6 games. The Seahawks are a super 49-19-2 ATS at home and 6-1 ATS in December. The Seahawks will also play with revenge from their 13-6 Week 7 loss. And throw in the fact they're 10-0 ATS at home in December off a non division game against a .500 or greater opponent, and we got ourselves a play.

Saints/Cowboys 1:00: Cowboys have been notorious in recent years for their December collapses; however, we'll look for that trend to end here. Romo has played well over his last 6 games (12 TD / 3 INT) and a healthy DeMarco Murray surely gives the Cowboys the much needed running threat they've sorely lacked for most of the year. On the other hand, the Saints have not had a running game virtually all year and rely too much on Brees to bail them out. And defensively, the Saints remain in the basement. With the Cowboys getting back Claiborne today, and C Brandon Carr (2 INT last 2 games) filling the void well, the Cowboys are poised to hold on for a victory here.

49ers/Patriots 8:30: The Patriots are seemingly unstoppable offensively and smothered 4 of their last 6 opponents; however, the SF defense (#2 total defense) will give them trouble. They have two of the top defensive line players in the game (Aldon Smith/Justin Smith), a vicious linebacking corps and heads up secondary. We'll look for the SF defense to put elusive QB Kaepernick and company in good position to put points on the board. SF is 4-1 ATS on the road against a team with a winning road record. NE is a mere 1-5 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back home games vs .500 or greater opponents. SF the call.

Bengals/Eagles 8:25: Last Sunday, the Eagles instituted a great offensive game plan against the Buccaneers -- a poor pass defending team -- as Nick Foles dropped 381 yards on them. However, Cincinnati gets after the passer for they lead the league in sacks (42). Foles, who hasn't thrown an interception in 14 quarters will be tested by the well disciplined secondary under DC Zimmer. And the Eagles explosive but shaky ball handling RB Bryce Brown will be forced to be utilized. Offensively, the Bengals should get it back together against a fundamentally challenged defense under interim DC Bowles, who, at times, is as confused as his secondary. Cincy is a solid 6-1 ATS in December off a SU favorite loss and 4-1 ATS on the road against a team with a losing home record. The Bengals have covered 8 straight in this series and we'll look for them to get it done again.

Cowboys/Bengals 1:00: Cowboys glaring consistent inconsistencies should surface again today. Dallas sports a poor 5-16 ATS mark off a SU win and control a 7-18-1 ATS mark in December football. Dallas was fortunate to beat a pathetic Eagles team last week but face a much more difficult challenge here. The Bengals' defense, which is getting after QBs this season, is well disciplined under former Dallas DC Zimmer and should give Romo and company trouble. On the other hand, the Dallas' defense has its weak links that Cincy can exploit. Dallas had to go to its practice squad to fill the NG position after Josh Brent was involved in the horrible accident yesterday. The Bengals' Green-Ellis is running hard and the quality offensive line in front of him should pave the way to success. Bengals are 7-1 ATS after allowing less than 15 points in previous game. Dallas is 0-4 ATS at Cincy. Bengals the call.

Broncos/Raiders 8:25: The Broncos are on a seven game run locking up a playoff birth yet still have incentive for a first round bye. On the other hand, the lowly Raiders are on a five game skid and will not see any playoff action this season. Yet value added to the Raiders as a double-digit dog here. Oakland sports a 13-2 ATS mark as a division dog and 11-5 ATS the AFC West. I realize the Raiders got trashed by the Broncos in Denver in Week 4 in a 37-6 whitewash; however, Oakland is 6-1 ATS as a dog of more than 9 points with revenge against an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Sure, the Raiders' defense ranks in the bottom tier in virtually every category. But Peyton Manning, as great as he is, has completed only 55% of his passes in his last two games vs Oakland. It's surely wishful thinking that Oakland's defense will rise to the occasion against arguably the greatest QB in the game, but they're professional and take pride as players at this level. Therefore, we should see improvement. At the same time, the Raiders' offense gets Darren McFadden back to relieve the pressure some off QB Carson Palmer from attempting 30+ passes. We'll look for a more competitive Raiders' team on their home field in prime time. Broncos are just 16-34-1 ATS after scoring 30+ and 12-26 ATS against teams under .500. Value with Raiders as a double-digit dog.

Giants/Redskins 8:40: The Redskins gave the Giants all they could handle in the first meeting October 21st; tonight, we'll look for Washington to continue to build on two strong outings and deliver. The Redskins are 5-0-2 ATS after Dallas and 7-1 ATS as a dog of 3 or more points off back-to-back SU wins. Moreover, they've had an additional three extra prep days for this. The Redskins' zone read option and play action off of it gives fits to defenses and hurt NY in the first meeting. We'll look for RG III and Alfred Morris to continue their effectiveness tonight. On the other hand, Eli Manning, as great as he is, struggles against Washington. Manning has just 2 TDs with 8 INTs in 5 games against Washington. NY is 0-3 ATS at Washington and they're 2-11 ATS on the road in late November/early December against an opponent off a SU dog win. Washington the call.

Browns/Raiders 4:25: Good value with the low posted 'total' based on weather and offensive struggles by both teams. At a close look, however, the teams' defenses are of concern. Oakland ranks near the bottom in most defensive categories. The Browns' run game should be able to get cooking against the soft run stop unit of Oakland. On the other hand, Carson Palmer has had some big games in his career against Cleveland, and now that he has McFadden returning to the backfield, the Oakland offense should show more balance today. Oakland is 15-5-1 O/U in December and 7-2 O/U at home. "Over" the call.

Panthers/Eagles 8:40: Philadelphia's rollover performance at Washington last week pretty much summed up where they're headed this year. In November, if they're unable to be competitive against a division opponent then they're certainly going to continue to struggle. And because of the multitude of offensive injuries, especially along the offensive line, development of young player personnel is limited. Consequently, we'll look for an average Carolina defense to play better tonight. And Carolina's offense should give the confused Eagles' defense trouble. Since Bowles took over as DC four weeks ago, opposing QBs have a passer rating of an outstanding 143.6! We'll look for Cam and company to produce tonight. Panthers 7-2 ATS as road favorites and 6-2 ATS on the road.

49ers/Saints 4:25: The Saints have turned their game up a few notches but now face the top defense in the NFL. Sure, Brees had some big games vs New Orleans and looking to avenge last year's playoff loss; however, the Saints' defense, which struggled early in the year, has shown some improvement in recent weeks but still has week areas in which Harbaugh's troops can exploit. QB controvesy in SF with Kaepernick starting, but the bottom line is the SF system is successful. And the SF defense puts their team in a great position to continually be in a position to win. 49ers 20-8-1 ATS run and still more juice left.

Redskins/Cowboys 4:15: Cowboys have been consistently inconsistent off SU wins at 2-12 ATS. Today, we'll look for sluggishness to resurface against division rival Washington. The Redskins have covered 5 straight at Dallas. Dallas controls an 0-7 ATS mark at home and a mere 1-5 ATS off back-to-back SU wins in November. Sure, the Redskins' defense has been outright poor for most of the season however, they made progress against Philadelphia last Sunday. The Dallas offense is clearly no juggernaut with a running game 29th in the league. The Redskins have a well balanced offense that should be able to put some points on the board and hang tight here. The dog in this series is a profitable 22-6 ATS!