Bengals/Titans 1:00: Revenge game for Vrabel and the Titans. Back on Jan 22nd in last season's post season play, Titans beat the Bengals every way imaginable except on the scoreboard. Titans sacked Burrows an incredible nine times but couldn't close the deal. Bengals most likely won't have superstar WR Chase (hip) back just yet. And Joe Mixon is in concussion protocol. Meanwhile, red hot ever since that blowout MNF loss at Buffalo on September 19th. Titans have won 7 of their last 8 games SU and 8-0 ATS run. Tannehill has been rock solid last two games as Burks (who I mentioned last week would step up) is emerging as a serious receiving threat to fill the void of the departed A.J. Brown (Eagles). And King Henry should get loose against a mediocre Bengals' run stop unit. On the other side of the ball, Titans yield in yardage but tighten in the red zone. It won't help that Autry (6.5 sacks) is out but Titans do get back Bud Dupree to help fill the void. Vrabel a sweet 11-3 ATS as a dog with revenge. Take the Titans. 

Bengals/Titans 1:00: Both of these offenses have gotten into rhythm. Joe Burrow has been on fire over the last few games as the Bengals dropped 42 and 37 on the Panthers and the Steelers, respectively. Meanwhile, Tannehill has been sharp over the last few games as well. Bengals' defense is yielding. Titans are 12-5-1 O/U after accumulating 250+ passing yards previously, and they're 11-5 O/U in November; moreover. Titans are 10-0 O/U at home vs .600 or less non division opponent. Bengals 7-1-1 O/U after scoring 30+. "Over" the call. 

Texans/Dolphins 1:00: Dolphins well rested and relatively healthy after coming off bye week. And that's bad news for a down and out Houston team coming off another loss last week. Houston benched QB Mills and will go with journeyman Kyle Allen. Not much of an upgrade. Look for Chubb and company to give him a rude welcome. On the other hand, yielding Houston defense could be in serious trouble with one of their top corners and #1 draft choice - Stingley (hamstring) most likely out; consequently, the Dolphins dynamic duo of Waddle and Hill should add significantly to their season totals in yards and TDs as they continue to mesh well with QB Tua. And if the Dolphins choose to run, they should be able to gut the worst run stop unit in the NFL that gives up 179 YPG. We'll lay the wood with Miami. 

Patriots/Vikings 8:20: Both of these teams have had their share of problems converting in the red zone. For the Patriots, with Josh McDaniels no longer coordinating the offense, they're reaching the goal line a poor 42.86% of the time - 31st in NFL just below the Broncos.  And over the last 3 weeks, Vikings converting in the red zone just 33.3% of the time. Patriots' defense remains solid against non-running QBs and we're most likely seeing more FG attempts instead of end zone dancing. Pats 3-14 O/U after scoring less than 15 points and 2-7 O/U in November. This series has gone 1-5 O/U in its last 6 meetings, and we'll stay "under" here. 

NY Giants/Cowboys 4:30: Under normal circumstances, NYG would be a nice play here; they've twice responded well the following week off a loss and they're in a revenge mode today from their earlier season 23-16 loss in East Rutherford. Plus, Cowboys have been a turkey on Thanksgiving going an abysmal 1-10 ATS. And Mike McCarthy sports a 1-6 ATS mark after scoring more than 35 points vs an opponent with revenge. For that alone, can't go heavy on Dallas; however, at a personnel standpoint, it's going to be tough for the Giants to move the football with a majority of their offensive line (LG Lemieux, C Feliciano, RT Neal) out and LT Thomas questionable. The Giants couldn't get RB Barkley going last week vs Detroit, running for just 22 yards on 15 carries. If Daniel Jones is expected to go to the air often, it will be big trouble vs the #1 sack team in the NFL. To make matters worse for NY, they lost emerging talented receiver Wan'Dale Robinson (ACL) last week. And the mediocre Giants' defense didn't hold up well vs Detroit last week. The Cowboys' offense is heating up now that Pollard is the full time RB. He's a mismatch nightmare on linebackers. NYG secondary is also in tatters, thinning out weekly. Adore' Jackson (knee) is the latest casualty. Technically, the Giants are just 2-14 ATS on the road with revenge off a SU loss vs a division opponent off a SU win. Sure, this isn't the same old Giants team of recent years, but hard to take the points here with limited horses to work with. We'll tread lightly with the Cowboys. 

Bills/Lions 12:30: Dan Campbell now 9-4 ATS at home leading the Lions. The three home games they lost this year were by a combined 11 points. Lions found the winning formula in their current three game win streak: Hold onto the ball (1 turnover) and defensively create turnovers (7 takeaways). Buffalo's QB Josh Allen not completely healthy with UCL injury. Turnovers have been keeping Buffalo from realizing explosive offensive potential. They're 30th in turning ball over. We'll look for the Lions to do what they do best at home under Campbell: Stay in games. Take the points. 

49ers/Cardinals 8:15: Played in Mexico City at historic Estadio Azteca Stadium. This game started at SF -5' but eventually jumped to 7'/8 where it stands now. Tempted to go with the dog here; after all, Arizona has virtually owned this series to the tune of 7-1 ATS. However, too many injuries on the Cardinals. Their offensive line is thinning and that's a problem vs the fierce pass rush of Bosa and company. QB Kyler Murray (hamstring) is not quite at his top speed and Colt McCoy is most likely to get the nod. I had McCoy and the Cardinals last week vs the Rams and he delivered. But SF defense a different animal. McCoy had quick releases last week on short routes to Hopkins and Moore. The longest completion was for 26 yards. SF sports one of the top defenses in the NFL across the board. Their defensive backs will most likely sit on a lot of those short routes making it a long day for McCoy. Offensively, the 49ers are near full strength with Garoppolo having a wealth of weaponry. Technically, in MNF, Arizona has not measured up well while SF has a rich history of winning. SF well prepared for this one after getting swept last year in this series. And they're looking to make a run for the division lead. Shanahan sports a strong 8-1 ATS mark off a SU win vs an opponent off a double-digit ATS win. We'll roll with SF.  

Cowboys/Vikings 4:25: Vikings last week laid to rest any doubt that they were a serious contender. Winning in Buffalo in mid-November is a validation and that they should be taken seriously; however, linemakers still cautious by making them a dog here. I'll take the points. Vikings have the run game with Cook (146 rush last week) to put a dent in the Cowboys' run-stop-unit ranked 29th (allow 143 YPG). And Cousins is loaded with skill weaponry now that TE Hockenson is in the mix. He clearly takes the pressure off superstar WR Jefferson and Thielen. Defensively, Minnesota is yielding; however, they capitalize on takeaways (16) and limit scoring (21.2 PPG). Za'Darius Smith, a huge off-season acquisition, teams with Danielle Hunter for a combined 15 sacks helps out the ball hawking secondary led by veterans C Patrick Peterson and S Harrison Smith. Prescott will surely be tested once again. In recent years, this series has been tightly contested with the winning margin at just 4 points or less. Cowboys haven't managed close games well in recent years under McCarthy; moreover, Cowboys a disturbing 0-13 ATS as a conference favorite of less than 4 points vs a .666 or greater opponent. Vikings the call. 

Lions/Giants 1:00: Giants playing good football en-route to their 7-2 SU/ATS mark. QB Daniel Jones has not thrown an interception in 6 straight games and RB Barkley is leading the league in rushing (931 yards). Defensively, they're yielding but toughen when it counts most. Giants are #2 in red zone defense allowing TDs just 38% of the time. Detroit, which is on a 2-0-win streak, has been extremely competitive and could easily have had a few more wins notched had it not been for critical late game mistakes. With that said, we'll go with the more well-disciplined team under Daboll to deliver the goods. 

Bears/Falcons 1:00: All of a sudden, the Bears are turning into an NFL offensive powerhouse.  They've notched 33, 29, 32, 30 points in their last 4 games, respectively. And in the process, they've played some pretty good defenses in New England, Dallas, Miami. Coming off a loss at home vs Detroit, Bears should get it done against the yielding defense of Atlanta which is in the bottom tier of the NFL for yardage and points allowed. Versatile QB Justin Fields has been the focal point of the offense launching the Bears to the #1 rushing attack in the NFL. Although Herbert (IR) won't play, Montgomery is very capable of getting the bulk of carries. And don't be surprised if Claypool emerges as a pass threat now that he's been worked in the fray for a few weeks; after all, Atlanta has the worst pass defense in the NFL. Offensively, Atlanta one dimensional as QB Mariota struggling to create a passing game ranked 31st in the NFL. Sure, Bears defense no longer Monsters of the Midway, and getting rid of Roquan Smith is still a mystery to me; however, his replacement Sanborn had 12 tackles, 9 solos and 2 sacks last week. Bears are 6-0 ATS as a dog of less than 6 points vs the NFC South. And they've covered 5 of the last 7 in Atlanta. Falcons started a red hot 6-0 ATS but have dropped 4 straight. Take the Bears today.

Titans/Packers 8:15: Titans' Derrick Henry was held to a season low 57 yards last week against the tough run stop unit of Denver; however, GB defense is yielding against the run (141 YPG allowed). GB is thin at LB with Rashan Gary and De'Vondre Cambell (knee) out. We'll look for Henry to get back on track to help open the play-action game for QB Tannehill. And Tennessee's defense has come a long way since getting torched by the Bills on MNF September 19th. The secondary has tightened holding up well since that disastrous outing in Buffalo. C Fulton should draw emerging weapon Christian Watson. And despite the injuries at strong safety, Andrew Adams is a capable vet to fill the role. And I like how the Titans' are getting after the QB; hopefully, dominating LDE Jeffrey Simmons (ankle) is good to go tonight to add to that pressure on Aarron Rodgers. Simmons is listed as questionable. Titans' defense has been solid against the run (#2) and slowing down RB Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon will be vital in handcuffing Rodgers without one of his favorite targets - WR Romeo Doubs. We'll look for the Titans to keep it tight tonight. 

Commanders/Eagles 8:15: Commanders should put up more of a fight this time around in this NFC East matchup. Eagles delivered a knockout back on September 25th. In that game, QB Wentz got sacked nine times. Commanders have gotten better since and are on a 3-0-1 ATS run with Heinicke in command of the offense. Heinicke is actually 8-2-1 ATS as a starter. And he'll have Washington's #1 draft pick - Dotson - back for this one. Sure, Eagles have the best corners in the NFL in Slay and Bradbury; however, Guardians have good skill weaponry with McLaurin, Samuel, Sims and even throw in speedster Dyami Brown. And if there is a weakness to the Eagles' defense, it's their run stop unit which got gashed by the 32nd rushing team in the NFL last week. Washington's Robinson and Gibson are able bodied running backs that can move the chains. Defensively, Washington might be outmatched with the explosive #1 offense of Philadelphia. The Commanders do, however, come after the QB recording 23 sacks and are in the top echelon of the NFL in pressure rate. The dog in this series is 3-1-1 ATS. We'll look for the revenge minded Commanders to cover. 

Cardinals/Rams 4:25: Analysis to follow...

Analysis to follow...

Seahawks/Bucs 9:30: Seahawks have progressively gotten better every week while TB has not. Seahawks on a 4-0 ATS run while TB is a money burning 0-6-1 in their last 7 games. Seahawks are relatively healthy with limited injuries while TB's offensive line keeps shuffling and top receiver Evans is nursing a sore ankle. Like the Seahawks' run game. Top Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III produced another impressive 100+ yard game last week. And the Seahawks are a sweet 5-1 ATS after rushing for more than 150+ yards. That run game surely opens the pass game for QB Geno Smith who is getting time behind the young but overachieving offensive line. On the other hand, TB run game is the worst in the NFL. And with the reshuffled offensive line, Brady should once again find difficultly getting the ball to his targets while facing the all improving Seattle defense that has made great strides over the last four weeks. Seahawks have had success traveling outside the United States whereas TB was 0-3 in London. We'll grab the Seahawks here. 

Falcons/Panthers 8:15: In this matchup on October 30th, Falcons won but failed to cover in a wild 37-34 OT win. The game for Atlanta was in the balance in the final seconds of regulation when an inexcusable breakdown in coverage cost them the cover. We'll look for Atlanta to learn from it and move forward. Last week, they had control of the game against the Chargers only to lose the ball on a takeaway late to set up the Chargers with a game winning kick for the SU loss and push (+3). Arthur Smith has his team on the cusp of winning games, but turnovers are hurting them. Fortunately, the Panthers are in worse shape. With their head coach fired, benched QB (Mayfield), two defensive assistants fired last week after their latest loss, the Panthers find ways to lose, such as in the waning seconds of the October 30th matchup. They're not ready for prime time yet. Unfortunately for them tonight, they'll see C. Patterson who didn't play on October 30th (knee). Interesting trends favoring Atlanta: Arthur Smith is 4-1 ATS vs an opponent off back-to-back SU losses. The Falcons are a perfect 10-0 ATS on the road off a non-division game vs a division opponent off back-to-back SU losses. Furthermore, Atlanta is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a favorite off a SU loss vs a division opponent with revenge off a road game. Falcons the call. 

Ravens/Saints 8:15: This line went from Ravens (-3) to (-1') after news broke TE Mark Andrews and RB Gus Edwards are out. I won't sweat it. Ravens' TE Likely turned in a stellar performance at Tampa Bay on Thursday the 27th. And veteran journeyman RB Kenyon Drake showed he still had plenty of juice left in him. The Baltimore offensive line is starting to gel as they wore out TB defense late last Thursday. Even RB Justice Hill is averaging 6.4 YPC in a limited role. Sure, Lamar Jackson won't have deep threat Bateman (out), but Duvernay has shown that he's capable of stepping up. Harbaugh has a next-man-up philosophy, and he gets the best out of his players. Saints' defensive secondary won't have star CB Lattimore, so there will be a void in the secondary for QB Jackson to exploit. On the other hand, Ravens' getting depth defensively as RDE Calais Campbell is good to go. And the Ravens absolutely stole Roquan Smith, arguably the best MLB in the NFL, from the Bears. He had a quick cram session and will play tonight. His superior instincts should make a seamless transition tonight. Definitely don't trust Dennis Allen as a HC; after all, he's 1-8 ATS off a SU win. And Andy Dalton has never been a consistent winner at QB. We'll grab the Ravens!

Seattle/Arizona 4:05: Seahawks dramatically turned their season around with a much-improved defense. And QB Geno Smith leads the league in completion percentage. Moreover, the run game is cooking behind rookie Walker III. Meanwhile, Arizona continues its struggles and underachieving under Kingsbury. Seattle won the first game of this division series back on October 16th 19-9 in Seattle. The Seahawks are a much better team now while the Cardinals continue to search for answers. Seattle is 6-2-1 ATS at Arizona and the road team is 11-4-1 ATS in this series. Seattle the call.  

Colts/Patriots 1:00: Colts struggling and making changes. OC Brady fired this week while versatile RB Hines was shipped to Buffalo. And Jonathon Taylor, who was brilliant last year running the rock, is no more (77 YPG). And he's OUT today. Ineffective QB Ryan remains on the bench while 2nd year QB Ehlinger will make his 2nd NFL start. Belichick feasts on rookies or inexperienced QBs and should dial up a solid defensive game plan. And he's a sweet 19-4 ATS at home vs an opponent off a SU loss. Patriots are 12-2 ATS at home off a division road game vs a non-division opponent. We'll look for NE to get it done. 

Chargers/Falcons 1:00: Falcons' secondary is not good and not well coached as exhibited last week in the waning seconds of what should have been a win and cover in regulation. And you would think Chargers' QB Herbert is licking his chops watching the Panthers/Falcons film of last week; however, Herbert won't have his top receiver Keenan Allan (hamstring) nor Mike Williams (ankle). Chargers had to bring up a practice squad player - Keelan Doss - who last played in 2020 with the Raiders in a limited role. Meanwhile, Falcons get back their top playmaker off the IR Patterson to add to an already strong offensive unit. Falcons have been a solid cover team this season and we'll stay on them here. 

Raiders/Jaguars 1:00: Can't trust Josh McDaniels laying points on the road. He's now 0-5 ATS with his less than .500 team against a less than .500 opponent. Jaguars are in games with a solid defense and productive offense (9th) but turnovers are doing them in. Look for them to clean it up today vs a Raiders' team that's not opportunistic defensively (32nd in the league forcing turnovers). And they allow 5 PPG more than the Jaguars do. Jaguars the call. 

Panthers/Bengals 1:00:  Both secondaries have thinned out with injuries. Carolina has S Burris (concussion) out and C Donte Jackson laboring with a sprained ankle. Bengals' QB Burrow should bounce back strong today despite the loss of Chase (hip). He still has Boyd, Higgins, TE Hurst and RB Mixon to go to. Bengals' ground game not good but could start cooking today vs the mediocre run-stop-unit of Panthers (23rd). On the other hand, Carolina will stay with P.J. Walker as their QB. And they should! He's in rhythm with receivers and putting points on the board; moreover, RB D'onta Foreman filling the RB void for McCaffrey (SF). He's running the rock hard and opening up the passing game. Bengals' secondary thinning with Awuzie (knee), Flowers (hamstring), Hilton (finger) all laboring. And the run stop unit of Cincy leaves much to be desired (21st). We got about 3 points of value with this total and I'm going "over". 

Eagles/Texans 8:15: Tried to make an argument for supporting the Texans here; however, I can't. They're bottom feeders of the league in scoring and allowing points. They have trouble running the football (92.4 YPG) aand expecting QB Mills to make plays with limited surrounding talent vs a top tier defense, is an uphill battle. Worse off, top vertical threat Cooks is out. Ball hawking Philadelphia secondary lead by "Big Play" Slay should continue to lead the league in takeaways after this one. Sure, dominant DT Jordan Davis is out, but Marlon Tuipolotu is pretty good and would start on 20 of 32 teams in the league. On the other hand, Eagles' offense is a well oiled machine. The Texans' secondary is one of the best in the league but Eagles also have a very effective run game (150 YPG) and that spells trouble for Houston. I don't like laying big numbers but will in this instance. 

Bengals/Browns 8:15: Trendy pick is the red-hot Bengals off 5 straight covers (4-1 SU). We'll buck the favorite and grab the home dog here. Browns off 4 straight losses and desperately need a win to get on track. We'll look for them to play with urgency here. The disturbing trend for the #3 rush team in the NFL is that they've been beaten in the rush stats for those four straight losses. That's highly uncharacteristic of Cleveland and they'll need to rely more on Chubb and Hunt than the arm of QB Brissett. Not having G Wyatt (out) is a big loss; however, Browns should win the run stats tonight against a mediocre (17th) run-stop-unit of Cincinnati (allow 119 YPG). As for Cincinnati, losing Ja"Marr Chase is a huge loss for Joe Burrow. Although he does have Higgins and Boyd to pick up some of the slack, and C Ward (concussion) is out, the ground game lags (30th) as Joe Mixon cannot get loose this season. And the Bengals' offensive line still is not protecting him well. He was sacked 3X and hurried a lot last week vs the light sacking defense of Atlanta. Cleveland can bring the rush with Garrett, Clowney and company. Browns swept this series last year and Stefanski is 4-0 SU vs the Bengals. Browns overdue to turn in a good performance and it should come here. 

49ers/Rams 4:25: 49ers are 7-0 SU vs the Rams during the regular season but the eighth won't be a charm. 49ers off two straight losses you would think be ready to get it rolling like they did last season after four straight losses, but injuries to key personnel will make it tough here. Major playmaker Deebo Samuel (hamstring) is out and key blocking component FB Kyle Juszcyk (finger). And defensively, SF will continue to miss DT Armstead, and solid run-stopper WLB Greenlaw (calf) won't play. Meanwhile, LA Rams had a bye week to heal up and find a way to finally beat the 49ers. This is a pretty good spot for them to get er done; after all, Rams are 11-4-1 ATS off a bye week, and 9-1 ATS with rest vs an opponent with winning percentage less than .666. Stafford will have an extra target with speedy target Van Jefferson (off IR) to stretch the field. Moreover, having starting C Brian Allen back will help stabilize an offensive line that's been in a state of flux for most of the season.  Dog 7-1 ATS in this series and take the point with the home team. 

Patriots/Jets 1:00: Based on what the Jets have been doing and NE on a short week (off MNF), Jets seem to be the call getting points at home. But a second glance gives the edge to NE. Jets' running back Breece Hall (ACL), who went down last week at Denver, is a big loss for the Jets. Patriots are coming off a disturbing loss at home to Chicago; a game in which their defense was not prepared for Justin Fields' QB Power. Today, Patriots should be well locked in vs their AFC East rival; after all, they've won 12 straight vs the Jets and 15 of last 16, including a blowout sweep last season. Moreover, Belichick is a sweet 13-3 ATS as a favorite vs an opponent off back-to-back SU/ATS wins, 10-0 ATS after allowing 33 or more points, and 12-2 ATS when they're less than .500 vs an opponent off SU/ATS non division wins. And throw in that they're 7-0 ATS off a double-digit loss at home, we'll roll with New England. 

Panthers/Falcons 1:00: Up until last week, Falcons were in every game with a perfect 6-0 ATS mark. Then they faced a geared-up Bengals team with Joe Burrow in top form. Today, they face a Panthers team that's coming off a whipping of a rapidly declining TB team. P.J. Walker is a good backup QB but is no Joe Burrow and doesn't have the vertical game to stretch the Falcons' secondary. Falcons' offense, on the other hand, can move the football. Arthur Smith's ground attack behind Mariota and RB Tyler Allgeier should put a dent in the Panthers' defense. Falcons receiving weapons London and Pitts overdue to have a big game. Falcons covered 5 of the last 7 in this series in Atlanta and we'll grab them here. Falcons the call. 

Ravens/Bucs 8:15: TB struggling and the opportunity for a win would seem to come tonight; after all, going against Brady off two straight losses is like playing with fire; however, TB dealing with injuries to key personnel limits TB success. The strength of TB's defense under Bowles has been stopping the run, forcing third and long when they can bring pressure on the QB while locking down defenders in the secondary. Tonight, TB will be thin in the secondary without corners Murphy-Bunting (quad) and Carlton Davis III (hip); moreover, key playmaker S Winfield Jr. (concussion); consequently, they're vulnerable to explosive plays. Ravens' WR Duvernay, and TE Andrews, which the offense is run through, should be able to exploit that stronghold void. TB run defense, which was at the top of the NFL last season, is now in the lower half tier (17th). Lamar Jackson and company (5th rushing offense) will surely try to establish that run game tonight. On the other hand, TB run game - at the very bottom of the league (64.4 YPG), puts more pressure on Brady, his reshuffled front line, and limited receiving weapons. With the road team 5-0 ATS in this series, we'll grab the Ravens.

Bears/Patriots 8:15: Heavy action on the Patriots and I'm going where the action is going. Patriots off two impressive wins. Their offense is starting to gel for they've outgained 4 of their last 5 opponents. If Mac Jones (ankle) is good to go, that's fine; if not, Zappe has proved to be a dependable backup. Belichick is the master of attacking weaknesses in a team and Chicago has their share. Bears have not been good run-stoppers allowing a generous 163 YPG (31st) and 4.8 YPC (24th). Look for the Patriots to pound RBs Harris and Stevenson between the tackles to take pressure off Zappe or Jones. Inclement weather should dictate a ball control game. As for Chicago and their 30th ranked offense (yards and points), they do run the ball well (171 YPG - 2nd in NFL); consequently, Belichick will surely direct his defensive game plan around stopping Herbert and Montgomery. One dimensional teams rarely beat Belichick. And Chicago's Fields has been sacked 23X this season, that's once every five pass attempts. Judon and company will surely be licking chops with Chicago playing behind the sticks most of the game. Patriots a sweet 18-3 ATS at home vs an opponent off a SU loss. And they're a sweet 14-1 ATS off a non-division game vs a less than .500 opponent off a SU loss of more than 4 points. Patriots the call. 

Bears/Patriots 8:15: Both of these teams have been turnover laden this season (combined 21 turnovers between them). And defensively, they are both opportunistic with a combined 17. The sloppy and cold Foxborough should dictate a ball control offensive attack with few, if any, explosive plays. And Fields has Mooney as his only vertical threat. Surely, Belichick will see to it that he's locked down. Patriots an amazing 1-13 O/U as a non-conference favorite of more than 1 point. Bears 1-10 O/U vs non-conference opponent with line >40 points. "Under" the call.  

Chiefs/49ers 4:25: Both teams coming off a loss but look for KC to deliver here. 49ers' HC Shanahan a money burning 0-12 ATS at home off non-division vs an opponent off a SU loss. Sure, 49ers getting a bit healthier with impact players DE Bosa, LT Trent Williams, CB Ward, SS Hufanga all looking to play after missing time last week; moreover, new acquisition RB McCaffrey should see some snaps. However, Not all good for SF. They're thin at DT with Armstead and Kinlaw. Wouldn't be surprised if KC utilized versatile RB Edwards-Helaire in the running game more to open up the pass game more for Mahomes. With an open date next week, we'll look for KC to pull out all stops and deliver. 

Jets/Broncos 4:05: Both teams bring top tier defenses to the field that play hard and create turnovers. It just so happens that the Jets' offense is turnover prone (9) and the Broncos' offense is stuck in neutral (32nd in scoring points). QB Brett Rypien will start in place of the injured Russell Wilson; consequently, Saleh and the Jets are salivating. Jets are 1-8 O/U off a SU win of 14+, and they're 5-11 O/U after allowing less than 15 points. Broncos on a 1-5 O/U run and 3-7 O/U off a SU loss. This series has gone 1-4 O/U in Denver including the last 3. "Under" the call. 

Texans/Raiders 4:05: Both teams coming off a bye. Texans went into their bye feeling pretty good after knocking off Jacksonville. Las Vegas went into theirs following a heartbreaking loss to KC. Raiders are 0-5 ATS following a bye week. Raiders can hang with top opposition, as exhibited in all their games. They do, however, have finishing games as demonstrated vs the Chargers, Titans, Cardinals, and Chiefs. Moreover, they're 0-4 ATS vs teams under .500. And their coach - McDaniels fits right in for he went 0-4 ATS with Denver as a less than .500 team taking on a less than .500 team. Houston is a team that shows ugly stats at the bottom of the league in offensive production and giving up yards defensively; however, a closer look reveals a strong defensive secondary that's given QBs fits getting in the end zone. Texans have given up just 19.8 PPG and are opportunistic creating turnovers (8). We'll look for Houston to do what they do best - stick around and make it interesting. Take the TD

Falcons/Bengals 1:00: Falcons are a covering machine (6-0 ATS) and I'm staying on them here. They've found ways to win on special teams, creating turnovers and running the football. The #3 rushing team in the NFL should find more room to run against a sluggish run-stop-unit of Cincinnati which is most likely without their top run-stopper MLB Logan Wilson (shoulder). And their defensive interior is thin with Josh Tupou out. Arthur Smith has used veteran journeyman - Marcus Mariota (NFC Offensive Player of the Week) well as his wheels look healthy again. And never mind that Patterson is on the IR, Tyler Allgeier, who was an absolute beast at BYU, is picking up the run slack duty very well. With London and TE Pitts healthy, Falcons once again are dangerous. Cincinnati offense having difficulty unleashing their run game with Mixon (3.3 YPC) and 20th in NFL; consequently, Burrow is a sitting duck most of the game until his big game heroics come into play late. The song remains the same today. Take Atlanta to cover. 

Saints/Cardinals 8:15: Cardinals can't be trusted as a favorite under Kingsbury (8-15) nor on Thursday Night (0-4 ATS). Their offensive line is in tatters with C Hudson (knee) and LG Pugh (ACL) out. Sure, DeAndre Hopkins is back off the suspended list and they just acquired Robbie Anderson from Carolina on Monday. I don't see the chemistry developing this soon with an offense that's already struggling. New Orleans is surely not a comfortable selection either, but they are 13-2 ATS on the road off SU/ATS loss. Saints' offense had problems with turnovers but did clean it up this past Sunday. Winston most likely back at the helm and should have Olave (cleared to play) back in action. Saints have a decent run game (#7) utilizing Hill and Kamara. Saints are actually averaging a full yard per play better than Arizona. We'll give the edge to New Orleans. 

Broncos/Chargers 8:15: Broncos' offense overdue to get untracked. Russell Wilson has been dragged in the mud by the media and fans, and Wilson doesn't take that lightly. He'll eventually get it together and it should come tonight in prime time when he's at his best. And against a defense that is in the bottom tier (31st) in points allowed. Moreover, with Bosa on the IR, Wilson should have a bit more time to operate. On the other hand, Broncos' 3rd ranked defense keeping them in games to date. Herbert's top receiver Keenan Allen (hamstring) still limited in practice as of now. Broncos 12-4 ATS after scoring less than 15 points. Chargers' HC Staley a poor 2-5 ATS off a SU non division win. Take the Broncos. 

Cowboys/Eagles 8:20: Last season, Cowboys swept this series easily. Prescott had some strong games vs Eagles, including 51-26 blowout at Philly in January. Cooper Rush (4-0 as the starter this season) will get the nod. And he should. He's been a solid game manager, as the Cowboys are winning with a respectable ground game, limited mistakes, and great defense. That should be the recipe here. Eagles have had their moments of shaky run stopping, as exhibited vs Detroit when Swift ran all over them. Eagles' offense a legit #1 with explosive skill personnel surrounding QB Hurts. However, this is the best defense the Eagles have faced this season. Hurts is 1-2 SU vs Dallas with 5 turnovers and 3 TD passes. Cowboys 10-1 ATS road run, 6-0 ATS in October, 7-3 ATS in Philadelphia, makes them a dangerous dog. Dallas the call. 

Bills/Chiefs 4:25: Chiefs inability to fortify their secondary, could be their downfall here. Chiefs are in the bottom tier of the NFL in defending the pass - allowing a generous 255.6 YPG. KC no longer equipped with playmaker Tyrann Mathieu (Saints) and #1 draft pick Trent McDuffie on IR, could be in for a long night here. Bills' QB Josh Allen leads the NFL in yards with 1651, should be able to pick apart the secondary. DC Spagnuolo threw everything but the kitchen sink at Josh Allen in the AFC Division round last season, and Allen was unstoppable. It was the breakout game for Gabe Davis. This week, Spagnuolo had to call up secondary reserves for his thinning secondary. And Buffalo offensive line has done a decent job opening holes for the ground game as well as protecting Allen. Don't see KC stopping the #1 offense in the NFL today. Defensively, Bills sport the #2 defense and have gotten healthy over the last few weeks, including adding additional depth to the defensive line as Ed Oliver is good to go. Road team 9-4 ATS in this series. Bills have covered 6 of last 8 in KC. And with the dramatic win over Las Vegas last Monday, we'll take the team that had an extra day of rest/prep. Take Buffalo. 

Panthers/Rams 4:05: Rams usually do well in this role. LA 5-0 ATS at home off SU favorite loss, and they're 13-3 ATS in October as a favorite vs an opponent off double-digit SU loss; moreover, 8-1 ATS off an October SU loss vs less than .500 opponent off SU/ATS loss. Carolina in a breakdown mode after Mayfield (ankle) goes down, Rhule and DC Snow out, while assistant Wilks takes over. Yes, the Wilks that coached the Cardinals for one disastrous season of 3-13. He again has big plans but should see little results here. Despite all the problems with the Rams' offensive line shuffling, Cam Akers situation, and suspect defense, they should roll. 

Bengals/Saints 1:00: Gimmick offenses like the Wildcat might work against the pathetic defense of Seattle, but Bengals will be prepared. Former Bengals' QB Dalton will get the nod and I'm not buying the revenge on former team. Dalton has limited offensive arsenal without Landry, Thomas and Olave. Turnover laden Saints' offense (13) should find a way to lose. We'll look for Cincinnati to bounce back off their loss last week. They're 7-1 ATS on the road and 4-1 ATS in this series. Saints coming off win over Seattle but Dennis Allen a pitiful 0-5 ATS off a SU win. Bengals the call. 

Commanders/Bears 8:15: A dud for Thursday night but leaning on Commanders. Chicago has not covered at home vs Washington in 9 attempts. These teams last met in 2019 with Chicago getting the best of Washington 31-15 on MNF. Now, different coaches, different QBs and personnel. Washington hasn't won since Week 1 at home vs Jacksonville. They played well enough to win last week despite the 3 fumbles and last second interception by Wentz. Wentz does have more electric weapons to go to, including McLaurin, Samuel, and emerging Dyami Brown (groin). Chicago's Fields reliant on Mooney while few others have stepped up. Both QBs have been sacked repeatedly but Washington brings a bit more sacking prowess at nearly 3 sacks per game. Bears' defense has been vulnerable against the run allowing 170 YPG. If Washington can establish the run game with RB Gibson, it would sure take some of the pressure off interception and sack prone Wentz to establish some rhythm in the pass game. We'll count on that. Chicago 0-2 as a home favorite on Thursday Nights; moreover, they're 1-7 ATS on Thursday night vs an opponent off a SU loss. Road team 8-2 ATS in this series. Washington has covered nine straight in Chicago. We'll tread lightly with the Commanders. 

Raiders/Chiefs 8:15: Raiders got their first win last week and established some confidence heading into this week with double revenge from last year's combined score thrashing of 89-23! KC is coming off an emotional upset win at Tampa Bay. More challenging for KC to get up for this one. Raiders' Josh McDaniels 4-1 as a less than .500 opponent vs .500 or greater opponent. And the Raiders are a sweet 7-1 ATS on the road vs a division opponent off a double-digit SU win. Furthermore, they're 6-0 ATS as dogs of more than 4 points with revenge vs an opponent off a SU dog win.  Raiders get back Hunter Renfrow (concussion) this week to add to the receiving arsenal. Look for Carr and company to be competitive here. Raiders the call. 

Bengals/Ravens 8:20: The well-rested Bengals should do well here; after all, last season, Burrow carved up the Baltimore's secondary to the tune of 941 yards, 7 TDs in 2 wins! Back in the day, that would be a good season for a QB. Since then, Harbaugh fired DC Martindale at season end and went in-house with secondary coach Mike McDonald as the DC. The Ravens are now 32nd (last) in the NFL in pass yards allowed (315 YPG). Burrow and company surely licking their chops. Bengals 4-1 ATS at Baltimore, and they're 8-1 ATS vs a division opponent with revenge. Bengals are respectable defensively and rank 4th against the rush and a solid eighth in points allowed (17'). Ravens not a good team in October at 11-27-2 and just 4-12 in Week 5. We'll take the points and the Bengals. 

Cowboys/Rams 4:25: Cowboys (-3) were my Top Play last week and they didn't disappoint. I'm going back on them this week as they visit the struggling Rams on a short week. Dallas has the most menacing pass rush in the league with 15 sacks and that doesn't bode well for the reshuffled line of the Rams. There's no quick fix for blitz pick up in a reshuffled offensive front. Stafford has already been sacked 16X and Kupp and Higbee are his viable options; however, Cowboys' DC Quinn doing a bang-up job with his secondary and I like the Cowboys' chances of limiting explosive plays here. Offensively, QB Cooper Rush has been a great game manager and his offensive line has held up well. Moreover, Cee Dee Lamb (groin) is good to go and Gallup showed that he's back last week with a good game. Cowboys a sweet 10-1 ATS off SU/ATS win vs an opponent off a double-digit SU loss. Cowboys the call. 

Seahawks/Saints 1:00: Last week, I was all over the Seahawks (+4) and they delivered. I'm back on them here. Geno Smith controls the highest completion % in the NFL at 77%. The run game is going well with Penny and the team is brimming with confidence. Moving the football against New Orleans will surely be more challenging than it was last week but like our chances. On the defensive side, Seahawks' defense not good. The players and scheme are fine, just a lack of execution. Defensive minded HC Carroll will figure it out; after all, New Orleans is a giveaway machine with 11 turnovers. New Orleans coach Dennis Allen 0-3 ATS off back-to-back SU losses. Last year, Saints won SU at Seattle 13-10 as 5 point road chalk. Carroll is eyeing revenge and we'll take 5' with the Seahawks here.  

 Chargers/Browns 1:00: This game was a barn burner last year in which a ridiculous late penalty on the Browns cost them the game 42-47. Revenge minded Browns now have the Chargers on their turf and I'm jumping on the home team. Browns daunting run game (#2 in NFL) with Nick Chubb (5.7 ypc) and Kareem Hunt should be a difficult task for the Chargers on this field. And steady QB Brissett won't have to worry about Joey Bosa (groin -out) coming off the edge. Chargers' defense allowing a generous 27 PPG. On the other hand, Browns' defense gets Myles Garrett back today to harass QB Justin Herbert who is dealing with rib cartilage injury. Dog in this series is 7-1 ATS while the Browns have covered 6 of the last 8 in this series. Brandon Staley just 1-5 ATS off SU non-division win. Browns the call. 

Colts/Broncos 8:15: On the surface, Broncos the call; after all, they're at home on Thursday Night and Colts are minus two key players in MLB Leonard (nose/concussion) and RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle). However, Denver has their share of impact player injuries too. Top Rusher one top check down receiver for Wilson- Javonte Williams (IR) is out and WLB Randy Gregory (IR) won't be around pressing QB Matt Ryan. Denver will go with Melvin Gordon III who's a solid RB but fumbles are becoming too frequent. And Russ Wilson not getting the protection he needs. Indy still has impact defensive players DeForest Buckner and Kwity Paye who can get after the QB. Moreover, LB corps still solid with Okereke, Franklin and E.J. Speed and a decent secondary. Offensively, Ryan overdue to get it together. He's got some solid weapons in Pittman Jr., Parris Cambell and #2 draft choice Alec Pierce; moreover, versatile RB Hines can pick up some of the slack for the Taylor void. At a coaching standpoint, Frank Reich has the significant edge. He's 8-2 SU/8-1 ATS coming off double-digit spread loss. Colts are 10-1 ATS off a SU favorite loss vs non-division opponent. They're also 3-1 ATS in their last 4 trips to Denver, and 12-3 in Week 5. Moreover, they're 14-4-1 ATS on Thursdays. Denver a money burning 3-7 Week 5 and 1-6 in October. Take the Colts. 

Rams/49ers 8:15: SF came close to beating the Rams last year in the NFC Championship game and the 49ers can grab a means of revenge here on a grand Monday prime time stage where they're 19-9 ATS. Shanahan has virtually owned McVay in the regular season at 7-2 SU. Garoppolo sports a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS mark vs the Rams including the post-season. SF is one of the few teams that have the secondary strength and pass rush to rattle Stafford and limit Cooper Kupp. Bosa is healthy and Armstead (foot) is good to go. There is a concern about LT for the 49ers as All-Pro Trent Williams (ankle) is out. However, Colton Mckivitz is a capable backup. And the loss of Von Miller (Buffalo) is a relief. 49ers should regain some traction of their offense here; after all, Rams' defense 21st in the NFL vs the pass. Rams 0-4 in Week 4 while SF 5-1 ATS off a SU loss. 49ers the call. 

Seahawks/Lions 1:00: Tale of two teams with contrasting health issues. Detroit will most likely be without two impact players: RB D'Andre Swift and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. Moreover, solid receiver DJ Chark will not play along with LG Jackson. Meanwhile, Seahawks are deep in the secondary, and have former #1 draft choice DE Collier off the IR and active. Most receivers are healthy and a deep backfield of Penny, Walker III and Dallas. QB Geno Smith, who sports a 77% completion percentage, should be able to let er rip a bit more to get some points on the board. Seahawks sport a 3-0 ATS mark in this series including the 51-29 route in Seattle last year. Detroit HC Campbell a good motivator and his guys love him, but game management questionable as he let another close game slip away last week. As for Seattle, Pete Carroll a sweet 12-2 ATS off back-to-back losses. Seahawks the call. 

Titans/Colts 1:00: Road team in this series 6-1 ATS. We get good value with the Titans coming off a big win. They got Derrick Henry going for 143 rush yards vs LV and Tannehill was working the play action nice. We'll look for that winning formula here. So far, Burks has been a solid draft choice to replace departed A.J. Brown. Fortunately, Bud Dupree (hip) returns this week to add to that all important edge rush; after all, QB Matt Ryan has been sacked 4X a game this season. On the defensive end, Titans need to shore up the run defense vs the explosive Jonathon Taylor. Vrabel usually gets his guys up for division foes and has had success vs Indy, especially in Indianapolis at 4-1 ATS. Colts a troubling 1-8 ATS as a favorite of less than 11 points in the second of back-to-back home games vs a less than .500 opponent. We'll look for Tennessee to go to 5-0 ATS in October. 

Browns/Falcons 1:00: These teams are a combined 6-0 O/U this season. We won't fear the higher than normal 'total' for this series and go "over". Falcons' defense most likely won't have an answer to stop the #1 rush offense in the NFL. And Atlanta's secondary leaves a lot to be desired; consequently, efficient pass Brissett should be able to guide the Browns' offense in the end zone often. The Falcons have given up a generous 27 PPG but they have 7 takeaways - which translate into points. On the other hand, Browns' defense missing key bookends - Garrett and Clowney. That's significant for giving Mariota a second more in the pocket to hook up with his array of weapons including Drake London, Patterson and Pitts. Browns' defense has been yielding - allowing 24 PPG. These teams are collectively 13-5 O/U in Week 4. "Over" it is!

Jaguars/Eagles 1:00: Eagles playing lights out ball with an explosive offense and suffocating defense. At the same time, Jaguars overachieving under HC Doug Pederson. We'll take the points with the Jags as Pederson visits his old stomping grounds in which he brought the city its only Super Bowl ring. Jaguars are running the ball effectively behind a much-improved line as James Robinson and Etienne are off to a good start. And Trevor Lawrence (Offensive Player of the Week) is playing with decisiveness locating receivers. On the other hand, Jaguars' opportunistic defense (8 takeaways) has the #1 run stop unit in the NFL allowing just 55 YPG. They'll put to test Jalen Hurts and company today. Eagles should run into trouble in this spot: They're 0-4 ATS as a .500 or greater team vs a greater than .500 opponent, 0-6 ATS at home vs non division opponent off a SU dog win, 3-9-1 ATS in Week 4, and 4-11-1 ATS off an ATS win. We'll take the points. 

Washington/Dallas 1:00: I don't see a falloff in production from the Cowboys, despite coming off a Monday game. Mccarthy a solid 5-1 ATS off back-to-back SU wins vs a less than .500 opponent. Dallas is 4-0 ATS in October and 6-0 ATS vs less than .500 foes. They've dominated the NFC East to the tune of 21-7 ATS. Dec 26th of last year, the Cowboys destroyed Washington 56-14 in this stadium. Cooper Rush (3-0 SU/ATS as a starter) has been solid in his decision making and he's getting time from his offensive line. On the other hand, Wentz has already been sacked 6X. That's bad news as the Cowboys' pass rush has been brutal on QBs thus far (averaging 4.3 sacks per game). Parsons has been virtually unstoppable pressing and sacking QBs. And Washington's tattered offensive line has two linemen - Leno (shoulder) and Schweitzer (concussion) that most likely won't play. And not liking the Washington defense which has been unable to stop anybody this season. In October, Cowboys 9-2 ATS at home vs an opponent off SU/ATS loss. Dallas the call. 

Dolphins/Bengals 8:15: Dolphins on an incredible roll and jumping on the Bengals at -3' is unsettling considering Miami's backdoor capability. However, injuries starting to compile for the Dolphins, especially to key players that shift the value to Cincinnati. Miami impact players: receiver Waddle (groin) and QB Tua (back/angle) still in recovery mode as of today. Defensively, key Miami secondary players - Xavien Howard (groin) and S Brandon Jones (chest) also in recovery mode on short week. Burrow and his explosive receiving arsenal are healthy. Bengals starting to get it rolling off convincing win Sunday. Zac Taylor 7-1 ATS vs non division opponent off back-to-back SU wins. On Thursday, Bengals 4-0 ATS vs an opponent off SU/ATS win. With the home team 5-0 ATS in this series, the 3 and a hook is justified. Bengals the call. 

Cowboys/Giants 8:15: Giants growing in confidence and learning to close out games. Daniel Jones overdue to notch a Prime-Time win after 0-8 SU in that role for his career. Run game with Barkley (236 rush yards) should fuel play action for Jones. Giants' offensive line will need to keep Parsons at bay. He clearly is a game wrecker. He won't be a problem on Evan Neal's side but the other tackle will need help and Barkley will need to improve on his blitz pickup. On the other hand, Thibodeaux (knee) should be good to go along with OLB Ojulari (hamstring). They should help fuel the pass rush that's desperately needed in NY. And they don't need Cooper Rush getting comfortable in the pocket again. He'll be without his starting left guard McGovern and TE Schultz (knee). Dallas is 31st in the NFL in point production at 11.5 PPG. Gallup (ACL) is back to give Dallas that vertical threat but remember, he just had surgery in January. A bit premature to get him going consistently so he'll be on a rep count. Giants have lost 10 of 11 in this series and overdue to get a win. All signs point on a SU win for the G-Men tonight. Cowboys 2-12 ATS vs opponent off back-to-back SUATS wins. Giants the call. 

49ers/Broncos 8:20: In two games under Hackett, the Broncos have not looked like the power house they were projected to be in the AFC West. Mismanagement of the clock, poor decision making, and not getting plays in quick enough have culminated in an 0-2 ATS mark for the Broncos. Now Hackett has brought in a consultant (Rosburg) to advise him on play calling. With that kind of uncertainty at this stage of the game, we'll go with the defensively stout 49ers who lead the league in defending the pass, #2 vs the run, and #1 in total yards allowed. Bosa is a major disrupter when he's healthy and he'll be on the field. On the other hand, SF's Garoppolo, now 35-16 SU as a starter including playoffs, will have another weapon at his disposal as TE George Kittle is ready to go. And Deebo Samuel is happy Jimmy G is back. He can be utilized more in the offense like last season. We'll grab San Francisco here. 

New Orleans/Carolina 1:00: Panthers snakebit in both games this season on last second 50+ yard field goals. Panthers overdue to get untracked here.  Defensively, they're looking for their first takeaway and it should come today; after all, Winston has been sacked 10 times and threw 3 interceptions. He's dealing with back and ankle problems. Panthers won this one 26-7 last September in Charlotte. McCaffrey is supposedly healthy which gives Mayfield another viable weapon. Panthers are 4-0 ATS in Week 3 and the dog in this series is 12-4 ATS. Panthers the call. 

Raiders/Titans 1:00: Both teams really struggling and desperate for a win. Titans choked up a lead vs the Giants and got demolished on Monday night by Buffalo. Today, we'll look for them to respond favorably. Tennessee is 4-0 ATS after allowing 30+ in previous game. And they're 8-0 ATS under Vrabel off back-to-back SU losses vs losing teams. Moreover, they're 4-0 ATS before playing the Colts. On the other hand, Josh McDaniels 0-4 ATS in his coaching career vs an opponent off back-to-back SU losses. Raiders off an epic collapse last week. Carr is repeatedly under duress, and he can't find his #1 receiver Adams. And Hunter Renfrow's absence (concussion) won't help matters as focal point of the Titans' defense will be on Adams. We'll look for the Titans to finally get their run game going with Henry. Play action should start to open up to #1 draft choice Burks. Tennessee the call. 

Ravens/Patriots 1:00: Patriots should do well in this role. They're 17-3 ATS at home vs an opponent off a SU loss. New England finally got Agholor and Meyers involved in the offensive game plan last week. It seemed to open up the run game a bit. Mac Jones should settle in today; after all, the Ravens' secondary allowed a staggering 469 yards and 6 TD passes last week. Belichick should find areas of the Ravens' defense to exploit. At the same time, he'll have the defensive game plan directed on stopping Lamar Jackson. Patriots' defense respectable (4th in total yards allowed) and they're getting to the QB. Baltimore just 1-6-1 ATS in Week 3. We'll take the points with the Patriots at Foxborough. 

Steelers/Browns 8:15: Both teams coming off losses. Browns had an epic collapse late in the final quarter vs the Jets; meanwhile, Steelers couldn't get anything going offensively under OC Matt Canada in their second straight loss. Steelers are staying in the games but just can't get enough offensive production out of Trubisky. He can't get the ball downfield as the Steelers rank in the bottom tier of the NFL in yards per pass. He does have weapons in Claypool, rooking Pickens and TE Freirmuth. And Najee Harris ran roughshod over Cleveland last year in 2 games (279 yards). Browns have some injury concerns with DE Winovich and DE Clowney out. Garrett (neck) should be good to go and that is a concern and a focal point Steelers have to address. And if Trubisky can't get it done, Tomlin could go with Pickett to generate some offense downfield. Defensively, Steelers have to stop RB Chubb. Not having T.J. Watt (pec) is a big loss but Heyward and Highsmith will have to step it up. Steelers Tomlin 5-0 ATS as a less than .500 team off a SU loss vs an opponent off a SU loss. Steelers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings while the dog in this series is 4-0 ATS. Pittsburgh the call. 

Vikings/Eagles 8:30: Cousins and company showed up vs Green Bay in Week 1, we'll look for a solid follow up here; after all, Kirk Cousins is 6-3 SU vs Philadelphia as a member of Washington and Minnesota. And Cousins got over the prime time hump. He was 0-9 on MNF before winning his last 3 MNF games. He has a healthy display of weapons. HC O'Connell lined up Justin Jefferson in various areas of the field vs Green Bay and it worked like a charm. He's a matchup nightmare in the slot (on linebackers) and on top of the numbers. Theilen is overdue for a big game and even former #1 Eagles draft choice Jalen Reagor (drafted ahead of Jefferson) is now with Minnesota to create havoc. Eagles not having Derek Barnett (ACL) will limit the pass rush for Philly. And Eagles did not look good stopping the run last week vs Detroit (allowed 181 yards). Getting Dalvin Cook rolling will surely open up the Vikings' play action pass. Philadelphia, on the other hand, is loaded with offensive weaponry themselves but I like the improved defense under Donatell. Hurts just 6-8-1 SU at home and 0-2 on MNF. We'll take Minnesota. 

Titans/Bills 7:15: I realize the Bills are in a major revenge mode here after Titans have beaten them two straight years - both in Nashville. And surely the Bills looked every bit the pre-season favorite to win the AFC after last Thursday's demolition of the incumbent Super Bowl Champion - Rams. Nevertheless, Titans the call here. Titans, under Vrabel, have a history of dropping games to middle of the road teams yet can up for and defeat the NFL elite. Such be the case tonight. They'll need to shore up a run-stop-unit that allowed Barkley to run roughshod on them. And rookie receivers #1 Burks and #5 Kyle Phillips will need to step up for Tannehill. And King Henry will need to step up his game several notches from last week. Good news is that Bills' DT Oliver (ankle) is out to lessen the deep bench of Buffalo. Not only that, Josh Allen's emerging WR Gabe Allen (ankle) won't be at full strength. Tennessee defense has to up its game several notches. Vrabel 9-1 ATS off non-division vs opponent off double digit SU win. Take the Titans.

Seahawks/49ers 4:05: I projected SF would be laying 7' points in this one. Close to double digits is a bit too much. I'm staying on the Seahawks after their big MNF football win. Seahawks play their division rival tough as exhibited by their 15-5-1 ATS mark in this series; moreover, they're 7-3 ATS at San Francisco. Sure, Geno Smith's name will surface again. Holding up against the fierce SF pass rush led by Nick Bosa is a concern. However, Seattle looking to run the rock as RB Kenneth Walker III is ready to go to add to a deep Seahawks' backfield. And that should alleviate the pressure off Smith, whose regaining confidence. On the other hand, jury still out on Trey Lance for the 49ers. And Kittle did not practice all week. Sure, Jammal Adams Jr. is a big loss but Carroll has depth in the secondary this season. And SF has got their share of injuries in the secondary as well. Another concern is that Shanahan is 0-7 ATS as a less than .500 favorite vs an opponent off a home game. Take the points with the Seahawks. 

Falcons/Rams 4:05: Rams looked extremely mediocre last Thursday to open up the season. Of course, the Bills have a tendency to make teams look a step slow. But Rams showed flaws defensively in run game and in coverage. DC Morris has talent but they underachieve a great deal. Look for a Falcons' offense to kick it in gear again. Last week, they were on the verge of winning outright, and it actually took an unbelievable amount of bad effort to cough up that game but they did. Smith, a solid offensive mind, should be able to clean it up or insert Ridder if Mariota drops the ball, literally, again. Patterson, #1 draft choice - London, Zaccheaus, and Pitts are all dangerous weapons at Mariota's disposal. Need the Falcons' defense to make some plays. Falcons are actually 3-0 ATS at Los Angeles, 13-3 ATS in Week 2, and covered 5 of their last 7 road games. We'll grab the double digits. 

Commanders/Lions 1:00: Lions not ready nor deserved to be a favorite yet. Philadelphia ran all over them (216 yards) last week and it's not going to get any easier vs Washington. Commanders' revamped offense looked good last week as Wentz threw 4 TD passes and distributed the ball well to his multiple weaponry Samuel, McLaurin, Dotson and Gibson (130 all-purpose yards). Detroit does not have the secondary strength to hold up against that firepower. And sure, Commanders' defense has its concerns too. And Swift (144 yards rush last week) is outstanding; however, he's got an ankle issue and may not be at best. Also, Detroit's Center - Ragnow is out. Grab the Commanders to go to 2-0. 

Panthers/Giants 1:00: Both teams started last week sluggishly and had strong finishes, except Giants pulled out a win and Panthers had to watch in horror a last second 58 yard field goal sail through the uprights. Look for Mayfield and company to battle back today. Carolina 10-2 ATS as a less than .500 dog vs a non-division opponent early in the season. NY 1-9 ATS at home vs an opponent off a SU favorite loss early in the season. Carolina a bit more hungry for this one. Panthers the call. 

Chargers/Chiefs 8:15: Chargers a dangerous road dog vs their division at 16-4-2 ATS. And they're 3-0-1 ATS in Kansas City. This line moved a point when Chargers' All Pro WR Keenan Allen (hamstring) was ruled out. Nevertheless, accurate and poised QB Herbert still has a good amount of weaponry at his disposal. DeAndre Carter is on the verge of a breakout year. TE Everett an underrated TE, and Joshua Palmer shows promise in his second year. They do need Mike Williams to step up his game. And the backfield is loaded with Ekeler, Kelley, Spiller and Sony Michel. If a receiver is open, Herbert will find him. And the offensive line, bolstered in offseason, held up well vs Las Vegas. We'll look for them to follow up strong here. Chiefs are dangerous on both sides of ball but do have some secondary issues and I believe they're going to be tested tonight. And let's not forget about Chargers' defensive bookends Bosa and Mack. Keeping Maholmes in pocket will be essential and those two are the best for the job. Chargers very capable of trading points with KC as they've proven in recent years. Road team 16-5-1 ATS in this series and I'm going with the trend. Chargers the call. 

Broncos/Seahawks 8:15: Russell Wilson now at the helm of Denver after piloting the Seattle' offense for 10 seasons. And the Seahawks are equipped with arguably the worst QB situation in the NFL with journeyman Geno Smith as the starter and former Denver cast off - Drew Lock as the backup. But if you think a Pete Carroll coached team is going to roll over, you got another thing coming. Seattle addressed the offensive line in the off-season with a strong draft and #1 pick Charles Cross and #3 pick Abraham Lucas have made strides. Carroll will most likely establish the run game with Penny, Homer and Dallas. #2 draft pick Ken Walker (hernia) most likely not ready. Establishing that run game and setting Geno Smith up with play action would be the plan. On the other side of the ball, Seahawks have solid rookie corners including Tariq Woolen who already worked his way into the starting lineup. Broncos have a rookie head coach Hackett and three novice coordinators. I don't expect the defense to be dominant like it was under defensive mastermind Fangio. Seattle sports an 8-1 ATS mark as a MNF home dog. We'll grab the TD. 

Raiders/Chargers 4:25: Rematch of season finale in which Las Vegas knocked Los Angeles out of the playoffs. Dog in this series is 19-7. Raiders made some notable changes in the offseason that should help them on both sides of the ball. Offensive mastermind - Josh McDaniels now commands the sideline and he's excited to have his QB Carr throwing to arguably the best receiver in the NFL Davante Adams (picked up from GB). Add TE Waller, Renfrow and healthy RB Jacobs to the mix in back of a healthier offensive line, Raiders should be able to trade points with the best of them. Of course, Los Angeles is loaded on both sides of the ball; however, top C J.C Jackson who was acquired from NE in the offseason, had foot surgery on August 24th and won't play. Offensively, Chargers will be dangerous as usual with QB Herbert and his weaponry. But Raiders also addressed their defense in the off-season adding Chandler Jones to the mix to team with Max Crosby as a dangerous edge rushing tandem. Raiders are 5-1 ATS in Game 1 and we'll ride them here as Los Angeles offers no home field advantage. LA is 20-41-1 ATS in home games. Raiders the call.  

Giants/Titans 4:25: Brian Daboll has Bills' QB Josh Allen to thank for launching him to the head coach of NY. Thursday Night, Josh Allen had a seamless transition to new Bills' OC Dorsey as the Bills' offense never looked better. Sure, Giants won big in the draft but still need work to clean up their game. Titans are a mission team this year after getting bounced by Cincinnati in the playoffs last season. RB King Henry is healthy and despite losing A.J. Brown (Philadelphia), Tannehill has a pretty solid receiving corps assembled in Robert Woods (from Rams), TE Austin Hooper (Cleveland) and their #1 draft pick Treylon Burks (Arkansas). Giants 0-5 ATS last 5 road dog roles and 1-4 ATS in this series. Titans the call. 

Packers/Vikings 4:25: Packers have lost 4 of the last 6 trips to Minnesota and I'm confident the Vikings can deliver again. Vikings' underrated QB Cousins loaded with weaponry and they're all healthy for a change. Thielen and Justin Jefferson spearhead one of the best WR duos in the NFL. And when RB Cook is doing his thing, Minnesota is hard to stop. Green Bay made some questionable off season moves including not re-signing one of their best pass rushers - Za'Darius Smith (44' sacks/53 tackles in 91 games). The Vikings, ironically, were glad to pick him up to add to their pass rush with Hunter. New DC Ed Donatell, who studied under one of the best defensive minds in the business - Vic Fangio, installed the 3-4 and more built to handle the teams that air it out. Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers won't have dominant Devonte Adams (Raiders) to throw to. And Lazard (knee) is doubtful. He has rookie #2 draft pick Christian Watson as one of his go-to guys. Vikings addressed the defensive backfield in the draft and have a nice blend of talent to deliver. Minnesota the call. 

Browns/Panthers 1:00: Give the edge to the home team here. Former Brown - Baker Mayfield, now the starter for the Panthers. He had the off-season shoulder surgery which cleaned up his injured left shoulder. His shoulder injury ultimately led to his departure in Cleveland. He won the starting job for Carolina and should have a major chip on his shoulder against his former team today. This is when he is at his best and we'll give him the edge over Browns' signal caller - Jacoby Brissette. Mayfield has a solid cast of weapons including a finally healthy Christian McCaffrey. Browns sluggish in Week 1 games at 6-15-1 ATS. Carolina the call. 

Bills/Rams 8:20: Incumbent Super Bowl Champ Rams find themselves as an underdog and it's highly disrespectful. Sure, understand the hype of the Bills. They're loaded and the pre-season favorite to win the AFC.  They do, however, won't have their best corner - Tre'Davious White (IR). Sure, Buffalo bolstered their secondary through the draft but having to deal with the dynamic All-World WR Kupp and newly acquired but outstanding and highly underrated Allen Robinson will be extremely challenging for them. And throw in a healthy TE Higbee and RB Cam Akers, Rams have the skill talent at QB Stafford's disposal. Sure, Von Miller is a threat but don't discount Rams' OT Noteboom. He's a quality replacement for retired Whitworth. And defensively, let's not forget about the most disrupting force in the NFL - Aaron Donald. And WLB Leonard Floyd is a proven pass rush threat. Moreover, CB Ramsey (should) is good to go to match on Diggs. Bills' offense is a machine with Josh Allen and his emerging talent WR Gabe Davis. Plus #2 draft choice RB James Cook is good. Nevertheless, Rams' DC has deep talent including newly acquired future Hall of Fame Mike LB Bobby Wagner. Sure, Bills got the best of the Rams the last few times, but that was with QB Goff, now at Detroit. Stafford makes a difference. Rams are 5-0 ATS in Week 1 and 10-4 ATS in September. We'll grab the undeserved dog and the points.

Rams/Bengals 6:30:  Much ado about if the Bengals' offensive line can hold up against the formidable Rams' front line.  Hypothetically, if the Bengals decide to employ a consistent deep route passing game, then Burrow will most likely be sacked more often than not. Fortunately for Cincinnati, they have the offensive flexibility to employ a quick pass game with their wealth of skill personnel Chase, Higgins and Boyd; moreover, TE Uzomah (MCL) is good to go to work a Rams' defense that has been vulnerable between the numbers throughout the season. Furthermore, Bengals have 1000+ rusher Mixon and Perine to run under the hard charging Aaron Donald, Floyd and Von Miller. And Burrow has developed a strong track record at quickly processing where his open receivers are. And yes, Jalen Ramsey is a solid corner but it's not within the Rams' defensive system to use him as a lockdown corner. When he has matched up against elite receivers, results were mixed; after all, Tampa Bay's Mike Evans worked him pretty well. And let's not forget that the Rams defense gave up 2,614 yards after catch (YAC) - that's the second most in the NFL! On the other hand, loved how Bengals' DC Anarumo has employed multiple blitz packages on opposing QBs in the playoffs. Hendrickson and company have proved to be a formidable line themselves. And with TE Higbee (MCL) not making the rehab progress the Rams had hoped, one less key target for Stafford to go to in taking off pressure from Kupp. Bengals' secondary has been well disciplined throughout playoffs and pose a serious threat. With Bengals possessing a well-rounded team, including special teams, they're a dangerous Super Bowl dog here and I'm taking the points. 

49ers/Rams 6:40: Defense should take precedence today with relatively healthy defensive bodies across the board. 49ers' defense and special teams playing at an elite level while the Rams' defense finally living up to its potential. SF 1-7 O/U last 8 playoff games and 0-4 O/U as a playoff dog. Rams 4-17 O/U as a home favorite. "Under" the call. 

49ers/Rams 6:40: 49ers have beaten their division rival 6 straight times and I'm taking the points today. 49ers' defense better in every aspect of the game and with the healthy SF defensive line rotation led by Nick Bosa, and the solid run stop unit with healthy MLB Warner, SF has what it takes to slow down the Rams' potent offense. They proved their mettle slowing down the #1 offense in the NFL (Dallas) and then going up to the frozen tundra of Green Bay and knocking the top seed out. Special teams, defense and enough offensive play making. Sure, Garoppolo has been quite mediocre throughout the process but ask any of his teammates who they want on the field with them, and it's a resounding affirmative for Jimmy G. And remember this: Garoppolo sports a 71.7 QBR vs the Rams en-route to a perfect 6-0 mark against them -better than any other NFL QB. He's overdue to post some good numbers today. Rams' defense vulnerable; after all, between the numbers (middle of field), Rams' defense has allowed 77% completions and 7 yards per attempt. Consequently, Shanahan will surely work an effective game plan to utilize his big-time weapons of Kittle, Samuel and even Aiyuk, RB Mitchell and FB Juszczyk to exploit that.  SF the call. 

Bengals/Chiefs 3:05: Amazing season for the Bengals and well deserved but it should end here. Bengals clearly have the skill weaponry to outduel any NFL team as they proved at home vs KC on January 2nd and in playoffs at home vs Las Vegas and on the road in the AFC Divisional Round vs Tennessee. The sack totals on Burrow are a concern, however. Burrow was able to get by with his incredible resilience and ability to find a weakness in coverage. For LV, TE Ozomah came up huge. Against Tennessee, Chase was unstoppable. And Chase absolutely dominated KC's corner Ward, on January 2nd. Today, Chiefs got great news with the return of their S Mathieu (concussion). Chiefs' secondary was torched when he was knocked out of the game early against Buffalo. Chiefs' DC Spanuolo can now be more flexible with his defensive schemes because of him. And a healthy DE Chris Jones helps. And the noise factor in arguably the loudest stadium in the NFL will almost surely play into KC's favor despite Burrow and company practicing with loudspeakers to replicate the noise. Bottom line, Bengals' weakness - offensive line should be deciding factor while Mahomes, unlike Tannehill (3 interceptions last week), will find the creases in the Bengals' secondary with his explosive weaponry. KC the call. 

Bills/Chiefs 6:30: Too much money going on Buffalo as this line softens to a pick. Sure, Bills got their revenge in Week 5 in a convincing 38-20 beatdown in KC. And last week, annihilated New England. Bills are no question serious threat and play well in KC; however, don't believe KC should be a mere pick in this game considering they're still the incumbent AFC Champs with virtually all off those same players healthy. And KC is not the same team they were in Week 5 when they were missing top lineman Chris Jones and CB Ward. Moreover, KC defense has come a long way since; as a matter of fact, KC won 9 of their last 10 games since losing to Tennessee October 24th led by a defense that ranked in the top tier over that time frame. Spagnuolo took Josh Allen out his game in last year's AFC Championship in a 38-24 loss. He'll surely put him to test again with a ball healthy ball hawking secondary. And let's not count out the magic of Mahomes who is equipped with his full weaponry, including welcoming back RB Edwards-Helaire. Andy Reid 16-4 ATS as a favorite off double-digit win and we'll roll with him and the Chiefs here.

Rams/Bucs 3:00: Rams' defense starting to look more like we envisioned when Los Angeles acquired Von Miller November 2nd. He's now in game shape and has 6 sacks in nine games with the Rams. Coupled with Floyd, and the interior presence of Aaron Donald, Rams' present a formidable pass rush vs Brady and his line that is banged up. TB C Jenson (ankle) and RT Wirfs (ankle) are Game Time Decisions. And Brady, who should have Fournette back, is operating without a few of his favorite targets - Antonio Brown (cut) and Godwin (ACL). Gronk and Evans were enough to get by Philadelphia, but the better equipped LA defense presents more problems. Offensively, Rams' QB Stafford got the playoff monkey off his back with a strong showing vs Arizona last week. He'll face the defense with the highest blitz rate in the NFL. However, Stafford actually ranks #1 in passer rating vs heavy blitz teams. TB isn't the same defensive front that ate up Mahomes in the Super Bowl. Pierre-Paul is having a down year (2' sacks) as the Bucs are highly dependent on LB Shaq Barrett (10 sacks). Sure, Whitworth (out) is a loss but his replacement Noteboom has a number of starts under his belt and did a decent job. Now that OBJ is settling in as a serious threat to defenses again, #1 receiver Cupp, TE Higbee, RB Cam Akers and Van Jefferson should give TB secondary some trouble. We'll grab the road team and the points. 

San Francisco/Green Bay 8:15: Had the 49ers last week but fading them here. DE Bosa, LB Warner and QB Garoppolo good to go but questioning how much fight left collectively in this SF team that's playing its 11th road game this season. The cumulative collision effect should take its toll on the frigid frozen tundra tonight where temperatures are expected to be at 3 degrees without windchill. This will be the first game of the season in freezing weather for San Francisco. Sure, the potent ground attack with Mitchell and All-Everything Deebo Samuel seems evident to gash a Packers' run-stop-unit that's been mediocre this season; however, Packers bye-week enabled them to get big time playmaker Za-Darius Smith and Whitney Mercilus off the IR and on the playing field tonight. That defensive front line depth is crucial late in the season and will enable fresh bodies rotated in to disrupt QB Garoppolo who has thrown 5 INT over the last 3 games. And offensively, Packers' LT Bakhtiari, who's been out since October 3rd, practiced in full pads Wednesday and should be good to go to protect Aaron Rodgers backside. Healthy Packers should get it done and get the monkey off Rodgers' back in his 0-3 slide vs SF in the playoffs. Packers the call. 

Bengals/Titans 4:30: Bengals have an awesome future with Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase leading the way; however, Titans are ready to advance now. Well rested Tennessee will have RB Derrick Henry back in the backfield to share carries with Foreman and Hilliard. Ane the offensive line had a chance to get healthy. Not good news for a Bengals' defense that got gashed for 7.4 YPC last week vs Las Vegas. The Bengals lost 3 interior linemen to injury last week and are thin there. Sure, pass rush specialist Hendrickson is back but when that Titans' play action game, RPO game is working, they're hard to stop. And it is working. Tannehill, with the full compliment of his receiving corps, has had the 3rd best QB rating in the NFL with 0 INTs. Sure, defensively the Titans have their secondary flaws; however, their pass rush makes up for secondary deficiencies. The Titans had 35 sacks with 153 QB pressures. And Burrow has been sacked more than any other QB in the NFL with 3.2 sacks per game. Get the ball out quickly is a solution; however, Titans' coverage underneath and vs tight ends has been above average this season. Moreover, RB Mixon has been just average the last few weeks. And with HC Vrabel given 9+ days of rest, he's a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS. Titans the call. 

Cardinals/Rams 8:15: Cardinals very capable of pulling the upset here. Rams' overrated defense got more bad news late in the week with two key secondary components FS Taylor Rapp and SS Jordan Fuller out. They had to bring up 37 year old Eric Weddle to help fill the void. Rams struggled vs playoff teams this season at 2-5 SU. Stafford (0-3 SU in playoffs) was on fire though the first 8 games (310 YPG/22-4 TD/INT) going 7-1 SU but production fizzled in the last 9 (268 YPG/19 TD/13 INT) with a 5-4 record. Road team got the best of this series this season. And Cardinals are at their best on the road at 8-1 SU. RB James Connor should be good to go and defensively, the addition of JJ Watt (off IR) will be an added boost. Cards 18-6-3 ATS as a road dog. Rams don't play the favorite role well at 3-7 ATS and just 1-4 ATS as a playoff favorite. Cardinals the call. 

Steelers/Chiefs 8:15: Steelers got pummeled at KC on December 26th. They come into this one as a double-digit dog. They are professionals and surely will be motivated under seasoned post-season coach Tomblin. They have a fighting chance to cover with very thin margin for error. Roethlisberger clearly in his declining stages of mobility but can still sling it.  Fortunately, his supporting cast has picked it up over the last few weeks. And another weapon added to the offense in Smith-Schuster will help. They'll need to go deep more frequently to test the KC secondary that's given up the big play more than usual this season. And KC defense has lacked the hustle over the last few weeks. Steelers' run game with RB Harris turned it up a few notches the last few weeks, which is a good sign that the Steelers' offensive line is improving. Establishing long drives and keeping Mahomes and company off the field can help immensely. When the KC offense is on the field, TJ Watt will need to be at his best to force errant throws. We'll look for the Steelers to cover the big number.

49ers/Cowboys 4:30: Dangerous matchup for the Cowboys. Cowboys went down the stretch facing only one playoff contender (Philadelphia rested starters) losing to Arizona at home. On the other hand, SF went on a sweet 7-2 ATS run down the stretch including an impressive double-digit comeback win in OT at Los Angeles. SF QB Garoppolo has a wealth of weaponry to go to with versatile Deebo Samuel, and throw in TE Kittle, WR Aiyuk and RB Mitchell. I'll look for HC Shanahan to outwit his old boss - Dan Quinn - who is now the DC of Dallas. Dallas has the explosive offense but clock management a concern in close games. And SF has the disruptive defensive front -(Bosa and Armstead) to give Prescott trouble. SF has a good run stop unit with a healthy MLB Warner and a respectable secondary. 49ers play the dog role well covering 5 of last 6 in that role. SF the call.

Eagles/Bucs 1:00: Eagles not the team they were back in Week 6 when they were beaten 28-22 by Tampa Bay. Back then, they didn't have an identity where they were going offensively. That game was a turning point for the coaching staff. They played to their strength - QB Hurts' legs and integrated zone read and gap QB power schemes to their offense. Hurts and RB Sanders flourished as they became the #1 run offense in the NFL. Moreover, the RPO (run, pass option) game opened up to utilize #1 draft pick Devonta Smith and TE Goedert. Sunday, with inclement weather expected in Tampa, the Eagles should lean on their productive clock eating offense to gain yardage and eat clock. Brady, down a few weapons - Fournette (IR), Antonio Brown (cut), and Godwin (IR), will have to lean on Gronkowski and Evans for big plays. That's a bit easier to manage for a mediocre Philadelphia defense. On the other side of the ball, the Buc's do sport the #3 rush defense but did allow eight 100-yard games this season compared to just 4 last season. And keep in mind that Eagles All-Pro T Lane Johnson and go-to TE Goedert didn't play in the first matchup. Eagles, 10-1 ATS as a dog, 4-1 ATS off a SU loss. TB 1-5 ATS as a playoff favorite. Take the points. 

Patriots/Bills 8:15: Frigid temperatures (2 degrees/14 MPH winds) should turn this game into a ball control defensive battle similar to the December 6th slugfest. Patriots 2-8 O/U as a dog and 1-4 O/U on road as a dog. This series has gone 1-4 O/U in Buffalo. Buffalo 2-5 O/U as a home favorite. We'll look for this one to stay "under". 

Patriots/Bills 8:15: Bills healthier going into this one with almost a clean slate of healthy bodies; meanwhile, Patriots will be without LT Wynn (hip/ankle) which will require offensive line shuffling. Fortunately, this game's weather will be one of the coldest on record (2 degrees w/ 14 MPH winds) and that favors New England. First matchup in this series - December 6th - Patriots threw just 3 passes while gutting the overrated Bills' run stop unit. Surely more passes will be thrown tonight as Patriots' OC McDaniels will find the soft spots in the Bills' defense. Offensively, Bills' QB Josh Allen completed just 49% of his passes over the last 2 games and has the 2nd worst completion % among quarterbacks in freezing game temperatures. Patriots have had success in Buffalo at 7-1 ATS. Sure, Patriots coming off a bad defensive game vs Miami but sport a 24-7 ATS mark after allowing 30+ points, they're 18-6 ATS w/ revenge against conference opponents above .400. This series has gone to the road team at 19-6-2 ATS and the dog at 5-1-1 ATS. Patriots the call. 

Raiders/Bengals 4:30: Impressive 4 game win streak got the Raiders in to the playoffs and they're not going to be a pushover. Keep in mind that in this first matchup back on November 21st, Raiders were in that game 13-16 with 5 minutes left in 4th quarter before some critical mistakes. And during Raiders 4 game run down the stretch, they were able to find ways to win those close games and that means a lot in the NFL. Bengals present a dangerous offense with QB Burrow, virtually uncoverable Chase, Higgins and Boyd; however, Cincinnati's offensive line a concern. Burrow has been sacked 51 times and faces 2 outstanding rushers in Ngakoue and Crosby (leads league in QB pressures). And although Raiders' QB Carr doesn't get the favorable reviews that other QBs do, he makes big throws in key stretches of games. He's equipped with healthy weaponry now that TE Waller is back, along with Renfro and emerging WR Jones. Raiders' Jacobs doing a solid job running the rock and comforting to know Las Vegas is 7-0 ATS after rushing for 150+ yards.  Raiders are a dangerous road dog at 6-2 ATS. Take the points. 

Chargers/Raiders 8:20: Raiders have been through a lot this season but are finding ways to win down the stretch. That's quite unusual for a team that usually packs it in this time of year. Raiders are finding ways to overcome adversity while areas of their game continue to improve. The offensive line, which has been shuffled around all season, is starting to gel. Defensively, Gus Bradley's unit has given up 20 or less in 4 of the last 5 games. And Derek Carr keeps hanging in their to make plays down the stretch. Carr has extra incentive today. After the Chargers' 28-14 win on October 4th, their DE Bosa spouted off about Derek Carr, "Great dude, great player...but we know once you get pressure on him, he kind of shuts down." Carr remembers that and surely will do everything to atone for his underachieving performance that day. He should have TE Darren Waller (knee) available today. And RB Jacobs (ribs) should be good to go. After all, they know there is no tomorrow if they lose. Chargers are the trendy choice here but sport an 0-7 ATS mark as a division favorite off a double-digit SU win. Dog in this series is 18-7 ATS and we'll roll with the vengeful Raiders. 

Patriots/Dolphins 4:25: Dolphins beat the Patriots in Week 1 at New England 17-16. No coach is better in same season revenge than Bill Belichick. He's 18-4 ATS with revenge vs .400 or greater conference opponents; moreover, 15-2 ATS with division revenge off a non-division game. To narrow it down, he's 14-2 ATS in the final two weeks of the season with revenge of a division opponent. Patriots have won 8 of the last 9 at Miami and should deliver here; after all, Patriots can still win the AFC East with a win and if Buffalo loses to the Jets today. We'll look for the Patriots to keep it rolling here. 

Seahawks/Cardinals 4:25: Cardinals can still win the NFC West with a win and getting help from SF. The Seahawks are simply playing out the season. I won't count the Seahawks out in this one. Seattle, coming off a blowout win at home vs Detroit, determined to finish season strong. They do have a few defenders out, including LB Wagner, RDT Woods and SS Neal. Cardinals are not without their share of injuries either. Cards will be without LDE Phillips, RCB Wilson. And offensively, Cardinals thin at RB with Connor (heel) and Edmunds (ankle) limited in practice this week. Russell Wilson starting to get back in rhythm and the run game was cooking last week with Penny (170 yards). We'll look for Seattle to keep this competitive. Pete Carroll a sweet 12-4 ATS as a dog vs .500 or greater division opponent. Arizona just 3-4 SU at home including 0-4 SU slide there. Moreover, a money burning 9-24 ATS as a home favorite. Seattle the call. 

Titans/Texans 1:00: Titans should be locked in here; after all, at stake is a first-round bye. Titans earlier in the year played down to their competition including dropping the first meeting in this series in Week 11 at home 22-13. In that game, the Titans out-yarded the Texans 420-190 but Tannehill threw 4 INTs! Now that the Titans' offensive line is much healthier and Julio Jones and A.J. Brown can be on the field at the same time, Titans should keep the offensive machine working. RB Foreman will get the nod again while Derrick Henry gets ready for playoffs. But no alarm, the mending Titans' offensive line paved the way against a pretty good run stop unit of Miami last week for 132 yards. Texans' run stop unit is worst in the NFL. On the flip side, there is no DeShawn Watson who scared the Titans' last year or even Tyrod Taylor who directed the win in Week 11. Davis Mills, who may be a decent QB down the line, will get the nod. He's struggling with a 32.2 QBR - 29th in the league; he doesn't have a run game (32nd in NFL) to help him out and the Titans' revamped defense is getting after the QB, ball hawking the secondary and stopping the run now. Titans 4-0 ATS after running for 150+ and they're 4-0 ATS after scoring more than 30+. Texans 1-4 ATS off SU loss of 14+. Titans the call. 

Chiefs/Broncos 4:30: I hit with the "under" on December 5th in this series at KC. Today, we'll stay "under" again. Line value added to "under" with both teams coming off poor defensive performances. For the Broncos, they gave up a rare 101-yard kickoff return and a 45 yard TD pass to Mike Williams. That's rare for a Vic Fangio coached program against a division rival. Meanwhile, KC got smoked by the speedy receivers of Cincinnati despite tight coverage. Today, KC secondary matches much better against the Denver receiving corps and surely Drew Lock is no Joe Burrow. Denver defense will have some tough sledding without CB Patrick Surtain II (out); nevertheless, Denver defense gives but is tough to break (#3 scoring defense). Fangio most likely will sit in a Cover 2 shell and force KC to run the football with Edwards-Helaire still out. Broncos are 0-6 O/U after allowing 30+ points and 1-5 O/U in their last 6 dog roles. Moreover, they're 5-20 O/U when the O/U line is set at 45 or over. With Fangio at 0-6 O/U w/ revenge vs division, "Under" is the call.  

Browns/Steelers 8:15: Browns eliminated from playoffs by virtue of LA Chargers winning Sunday. Steelers are holding on for their dear lives to land a playoff spot but must win out and get some outside help next week; as a result of the conclusion of today, this line bumped around. Cleveland opened as a small favorite but as of Sunday evening became a dog. Regardless of the bad news for Cleveland, this is a longtime rivalry and they would like nothing more than to end Pittsburgh's playoff hopes on Monday. Therefore, I see Cleveland showing up to play some football. They have the better offensive line/run game even without Conklin (IR). Chubb ran through a decent Packers' defense last week for 126 yards; moreover, Hunt (ankle) should be back and throw in D'Ernest Johnson (averaging 5.7 YPC), you got a three headed monster thrashing through a poor Steelers' run-stop-unit that gives up 142.7 YPG (31st in NFL).  And Mayfield, who's had a poor year, has most of his receiving targets available. On the other hand, Steelers' run game never got on track this year (87.6 YPG) as Najee Harris has to work for every 3 YPC and a cloud of rubber chips he can muster. And sad to say, Big Ben no longer has that ability to move around the pocket so well, process and react the way he did for so many years. Browns' secondary is thin but I don't believe the old magic of Ben will resurface tonight against a formidable Browns' pass rush with  Garrett and Clowney healthy. Browns the call.

Giants/Bears 1:00: Two offenses ranking in the bottom tier of the league with backup QBs. Dalton should get the start for the Bears. While the Giants will share time with either Fromm or Glennon. If that's not ugly enough, Toney and Slayton are out, their starting center (Price) is out, and Freddie Kitchens is once again calling the plays. No wonder RB Barkley (ankle) may want to sit this one out. With both defenses respectable and keeping them in games, scoring will be at a premium. And throw in the 28 degree weather with high winds and the low set total doesn't look that low after all. Bears 1-6 O/U in their last 7 home favorite roles and the Giants are 6-19 O/U run. "Under" the call. 

Chiefs/Bengals 1:00: Bengals are one win away from winning the AFC North while the Chiefs are looking for that First Round Bye. Always a concern with the Bengals off two straight wins - a spot that has been shaky for a few years, but we've got Cincinnati at home as a dog and they're 9-1 ATS as a dog off a SU win of 14+. And the Bengals are in great hands with Joe Burrow who is maturing into an elite QB. His weaponry is healthy and his line is improving. Moreover, defensively, WLB Logan Wilson is back, the secondary is stepping up their game, and sack master - Hendrickson (14 sacks) is healthy. Sure, KC gets back TE Kelce but RB Edwards-Helaire is out.  Chiefs now a dangerous team but a bit overvalued here considering they're just 4-9 ATS after scoring 30+ in previous game. Bengals the call.

Dolphins/Titans 1:00: Titans A.J. Brown made a huge difference last Thursday. Miami is a blitz happy team and most likely that means man coverage on Brown. Tannehill clearly a more confident QB with Brown in the lineup and Wesbrook-Ikhine is stepping up his game. And fortunately, the Titans' left side of their offensive line is back this week with LG Saffold and LT Lewan returning to protect Tannehill better and improve on the run game with Foreman and McNichols. Defensively is something to get excited over as a Titans' backer. Their sack strong line is healthy and the nine days of rest compared to Miami's 5 days, allowed their secondary to heal their wounds. Miami still has offensive woes starting with one of the worst run games in the NFL (30th). Tennesse is a sweet 6-0 ATS as a favorite after a Thursday game. Miami just 1-4 ATS following a Monday Night game. A win over the Dolphins gives Tennessee the AFC South Championship. Tennessee the call.