Raiders/Colts 1:00: Raiders usually slip slide away with the December weather but are defying logic this time around as they control their own destiny with a legitimate shot for the playoffs if they win out. They're off two wins and we're back on them again today. The trendy pick is Indianapolis which is coming off a monster win Christmas Day at Arizona. But Indy not the greatest in the role back at home off back-to-back SU/ATS wins where they're 0-7 ATS. Sure, they're getting back lots of bodies from the Covid list, including - most likely Wentz. And the line is inflated because of it. Raiders' defense impressive last week holding Denver to 18 yards rushing and 150 total yards. And the Raiders' run game looked solid last week as well with Jacobs (129 yards/ 4.8 YPC). The Raiders' offense could surely use TE Waller (Covid/Knee) but Moreau is doing a decent job and Carr is making the best of who he has at his disposal. We'll look for the Raiders to stick around; after all, they're 9-0 ATS on the road vs the AFC South. In the spirit of John Madden - Go Raiders!

Dolphins/Saints 8:15:  This 'total' opened at 40 but whittled down to 37. Still value with the "under". Saints hit hard by Covid and down to their 4th team QB Ian Book. This will be his first appearance, let alone start, in an NFL regular season game. Sean Payton will surely not put him in a role to air it out regularly, especially without his starting T Ramczyk (covid) out; instead, Payton will have him lean on his supporting skill cast including versatile Kamara as a key check down option. Should be tough to get the vertical pass game going with limited vertical weapons, thin offensive line and the ball hawking secondary of Miami. On the other hand, New Orleans' defense (#4 in points allowed) will again need to step up their game like they did vs TB and Brady. Despite some thinning in the secondary, they can get it done vs a mediocre Miami offense (24th total yards). Dolphins 2-5 O/U as road favorite while the Saints are 4-12 O/U off back-to-back SU wins, and they're 2-9 O/U after allowing less than 15 points. "Under" the call. 

Dolphins/Saints 8:15: Yes, Saints ravaged with Covid issues on both sides of ball. But still not ready to lay points with the Dolphins on the road (2-5 as road chalk), especially on MNF (2-8 ATS). Sure, the Dolphins are a popular choice now that they're on a 6 game win streak. A closer look reveals all but one of those wins were against teams below .500. The game they won was vs the Ravens at Miami on Thursday night (Nov 11th). Tonight, Saints will rely on their run game and quick game with 4th team QB Ian Book running the show. He's got Kamara, Callaway and Smith to lean on. Sean Payton will surely find a weakness to exploit in the overly aggressive Miami defense. On the other hand, Saints' defense coming off a superb performance vs explosive TB. Tonight, they face the struggling run game of Miami (30th in league). The Saints are short a few secondary players but still have lockdown CB Lattimore available and a few others who've played significant minutes this season.  Saints a sweet 6-1 ATS after scoring less than 15 points previously, 7-3 ATS in December; what's more, Saints 5-1 ATS on MNF off back-to-back SU/ATS wins in the Payton era. Saints the call. 

Washington/Dallas 8:20: Cowboys are rolling and surely a solid spread winner this season, but Washington is no easy out. Washington didn't have any quit in them with a fierce rally on Dec 12th before a big defensive play by Parsons sealed the deal. We'll look for the Football Team to give their rival a tough time here. Rivera sports a solid 4-2 ATS mark vs Dallas and he's 5-1 ATS with revenge. With Heinicke back at the helm, Washington has a fighting chance. Take the double digits. 

Broncos/Raiders 4:25: Raiders have had Denver's number going 6-2 SU/7-1 ATS in its last 8 in this series, including 34-24 on October 17th. In that game, Raiders got after Bridgewater hitting him a number of times and sacking him five times. Today, interception king - Drew Lock - takes over at the helm as Bridgewater is in concussion protocol. Lock has a tendency to rally his troops and make flashy plays but usually follows up with a late game interception or fumble that proves costly. Raiders still have an outside chance to get into playoffs and I surely trust Carr more than Drew Lock. Of course, Waller (knee) and Ruggs (cut) are no longer around but Carr still has enough weaponry at his disposal and TE Moreau turning into a pretty good target as well. We'll jump on Las Vegas. 

Bills/Patriots 1:00: Bills swept this series last year including the 38-9 whitewashing at Foxborough on December 28th. Patriots got busy in the free agency market bolstering their offensive and defensive line, adding playmaker hybrid edge rusher Judon and linebacker Van Noy. And the draft went well choosing QB Mac Jones; as a result, they're in position to sweep this series and win the AFC East. Bills have had trouble in this spot - coming off a double-digit SU win vs division opponent off SU/ATS loss. Buffalo run-stop-unit was exposed in first matchup Dec 6th, and Pats get Damien Harris (hamstring) back with C Andrews today. TE Hunter Henry could play a key role today as well. Buffalo won't have their starting guards - LG Feliciano and RG Ford (covid). That doesn't bode well for a team attempting to establish their run game. NE 3-1 ATS off losses and we'll hop on Belichick and the Patriots again here. 

Colts/Cardinals 8:15: Good spot for Arizona to get it together here; after all, they're a sweet 15-2 ATS when coming off consecutive SU/ATS losses including a perfect 12-0 ATS vs .600 or less opponent; moreover, if the opponent is non-division, they're a perfect 11-0 ATS. After losing to the Rams, Cardinals got rolled by Detroit but don't get too concerned. Cardinals are 8-2 ATS off losses of 14+. Cardinals should have RB Conner (heel) good to go while QB Murray is overdue to step up his game. Sure, he won't have Hopkins (knee) but TE Ertz, Kirk and A.J. Green is a solid trio of weapons. Indy is a bit banged up including in their secondary with S Sendejo out. Offensively for Indianapolis is a concern with their best lineman G Nelson (Covid) out. In addition, other interior linemen - C Kelly (personal) and G Glowinski (Covid) are declared out at this time. Arizona front line a formidable bunch, including a healthy WLB Chandler Jones, can get after the QB. And Wentz has been vulnerable to the sack. Sure, Jonathon Taylor is playing at MVP level but without his top hogs up front, lanes may close quickly tonight. Arizona not that easy to score against (5th in points allowed) and opportunistic (forced 24 turnovers). Arizona overdue to get on track here. With Colts' Reich just 2-10 ATS off back-to-back SU wins vs non-division foes, Cardinals the call.  

Browns/Packers 4:30: Hard to fade the Packers. They're strong this time of year (4-1 ATS Week 16) and covered 16 of their last 21 home games. Cleveland desperately needs a win to cling on slipping playoff hopes but Green Bay is also looking to secure a win for home field advantage throughout playoffs. Aaron Rodgers is the front-runner for the MVP and he should stay on top of his game despite having a few starting linemen out; after all, Cleveland has a razor thin secondary and their top pass rushers - Clowney (Covid) out with Garrett (groin) hurting. Sure, Rodgers won't have Valdes-Scantling and Cobb - both out; however, he still has plenty of weaponry with Adams, Lazard. St. Brown and RBs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Browns will have Mayfield available but a few linemen out. And Packers' defense, unlike in years past, is well managed under DC Joe Berry. We'll look for them to close at home. Packers are 20-8 ATS off an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in this series. Green Bay the call.

49ers/Titans 8:20: Titans are a dangerous dog but are having their share of problems on the offensive side of ball. Penalties and turnovers are abundant. Tannehill threw 11 INTs over the last 9 games and he's been sacked 41 times - that's tied for most in the NFL with Joe Burrow. Problem could be exacerbated tonight with a healthy Nick Bosa (15 sacks on the year) aligned where Tennessee is thin - on the left side of the line. Tennessee's LT Taylor Lewan (back) and LG Saffold (shoulder/Covid) are out. Tennessee, which has been devoid of explosive plays since RB Derrick Henry went down October 31st. It doesn't look that Julio Jones (hamstring) will be ready tonight but A.J. Brown (chest) should be good to go which is a concern. But SF secondary rising to the occasion over their 5-1 ATS run and they have the defensive line (Bosa with at least 1 sack in 6 straight games) getting to QB. Offensively, SF has playmakers - Kittle and Deebo Samuel along with FB Juszczyk. RB Elijah Mitchell (knee) is out but HC Shanahan has been good at mixing up formations penciling in players to make plays during their run. And Jimmy G is doing well at the helm. Tennessee still controls the lead in their division but SF needs a win to stay in the NFC West race. SF has closed as a road favorite at 4-1 ATS and we'll give the edge to them here and lay a field goal. 

Seahawks/Rams 7:00: By the late portion of last week, nearly half of the Rams' team was under protocol. Protocol restrictions were eased by the league officials a week ago so many of those players will be good to go providing a few negative tests. A few key Rams' players who were listed as "out" as of Monday include SLB Von Miller, TE Tyler Higbee and LT Havenstein - all impact players. Missing the key personnel is one thing, but the disruption of preparation with the Rams' practice facility closed is a concern. Meanwhile, the Seahawks, which still are mathematically alive in the playoff race, went on with business in preparation with limited Covid issues. Seattle is off 2 straight wins and hypothetically could finish at 9-8 providing they win out. It's not unusual for the Seahawks to be strong this time of year; after all, they're 4-1 ATS in December and dangerous vs their division, especially in the dog role; for example, they're 10-1 ATS as a dog vs a division opponent off a SU/ATS win. In addition, they're 9-2 ATS vs division opponent off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. Defensively, Seattle is yielding but not giving up many points. Seattle is 4th in the NFL in scoring defense. Sure, McVay has had Carroll's number; however, Seahawks now in double revenge mode, including last year's playoff loss gives extra incentive to Seattle. With the run game starting to pick up with RB Penny, and QB Wilson getting in better rhythm, Seattle won't be an easy out. Seahawks the call.

Vikings/Bears 8:15: Bears playing for pride but even that is questionable at this stage of the season; after all, Chicago is 0-4 ATS off a SU loss of 14+ in their last 4 in that role. They hung with GB for 3 1/2 quarters last week before the flood gates opened. Tonight, it's not going to get easier. Sure, Fields will be a good QB and he does have a few playmakers in WR/PR Grant, Mooney and RB Montgomery. But having Allen Robinson on the Covid list won't help. Moreover, they won't have LT Peters and most likely their RT Borom. That won't bode well against a top tier pass rushing unit of Minnesota and ball hawking Peterson, Smith and Harrison roaming the secondary. Offensively, the Vikings may be fully loaded if Thielen (ankle) is added to the roster. As of today, he is questionable - which is good news for Vikings' backers but bad news for the Bears; after all, they will most likely be without their entire starting secondary - Covid issues. Super rookie - Justin Jefferson uncharacteristically dropped a few last week and should put up big numbers tonight. Cousins has been solid on the road and he's been accurate most of the year; of course, having Delvin Cook in the backfield is always a huge benefit. Don't like laying points with Minnesota; after all, they give up big leads (last week a sweat to the end) but in this instance, Vikings have a clear-cut advantage in personnel and should take advantage of it.  Vikings the call.

Bengals/Broncos 4:05: The Bengals have played pretty well on the road this season with wins at Pittsburgh, Detroit, Baltimore and Las Vegas. They're coming off a narrow OT loss to San Francisco. They're 5-2 ATS off a SU loss; moreover, Joe Burrow is 3-0 ATS off consecutive losses in his career. Bengals' offensive line struggling but Burrow has amazing processing skill to find his talented receiving corps including explosive Ja'Marr Chase. Bengals are 7-2 ATS on the road vs teams with winning home records. Denver, on the other hand, can't be trusted off big wins of 14 points or more where they've gone a disappointing 3-8-1 ATS. We'll look for the Bengals to get it done on a field where they've historically had success (4-0 ATS). Cincinnati the call.

Bengals/Broncos 4:05: This series has gone 1-3 O/U in its last 4 meetings. Denver is a team with a middle of the road offense (#20 scoring) with a well-disciplined defense (#2 scoring defense). Consequently, Denver on a 1-6 O/U run. We'll ride that here. Bengals' offensive line has issues which don't allow Burrow and Mixon to do what they're capable of doing. The Bengals' defense, however, capable of holding their own here. Bengals are 1-4 O/U off a SU loss and 5-14-2 O/U as a road dog. Denver is 4-20 O/U when the OU line is 45 or more. "Under" the call.

Titans/Steelers 1:00: Steelers coming off arguably their worst first half of football in recent memory on the 9th at Minnesota. They did, however, show grit in that second half with a ferocious rally to nearly cover. We'll look for that enthusiastic play to stem over to this game at Heinz Field where the Steelers have gone 4-0-1 SU in their last 5 games there. Steelers 6-1 ATS after allowing 35+ points. Steelers realize they're on the ropes in the playoff race and will need to run the table while hoping for other contenders to fall. Steelers do have a few bodies getting better (LG Haeg, C Haden) and hopefully have Watt (groin) good to go. Fortunately for Pittsburgh's defense, they compete with a much less explosive offense today. Tennessee offense has averaged just 4.6 YPP over their last 5 games. Tennessee offense is simply not rolling with key playmakers A.J. Brown and Derrick Henry on IR. Foreman not getting it done and Tannehill struggling as the numbers support. Pittsburgh has won 3 straight in this series and we'll look for them to deliver here. 

Patriots/Colts 8:20: Both teams well rested coming off bye weeks and have had success doing so. And both running the football well and playing solid defense. Edge to Patriots, however, in a few key factors: Colts may have one of the best Guards in the NFL in Quenton Nelson but collectively, since Trent Brown came back vs the Browns, the Patriots have the best offensive line across the board. Sure, NE top rusher Damien Harris is out, but NE can just feed Stevenson and Bolden the rock without missing a beat vs a Colts' undersized defensive front. Then Mac Jones can go to work. Defensively, Patriots have a way of taking away the key component of a game and we won't put that past Belichick with extra prep time. He surely will have prepped his men to stop the NFL's leading rusher Jonathon Taylor. The Patriots' #1 scoring defense will then surely unleash it's well orchestrated pass rush on Wentz who's been solid limiting interceptions; however, he gets hit (60x) the second most in the NFL behind only Atlanta's Matt Ryan (71). With the ball hawking secondary of NE, Wentz could resort back to his Philly daze. Technically, Belichick 11-3 ATS as a greater than .500 team off a SU dog win vs a greater than .500 team off a SU win. He's also an amazing 41-15 ATS after allowing less than 250 yards in previous game. Colts don't play the home favorite role well at 2-5 ATS and have failed to cover in 7 of their last 10 home games. Patriots the call. 

Chiefs/Chargers 8:20:  In Week 3 of this series, Chargers delivered the goods 30-24 outright at KC as a 6.5 point dog. Chargers forced 4 turnovers in that game snatching two fumbles and picking off Maholmes twice. For the Chiefs, it was part of a miserable 3-4 SU start to the season. Since then, the Chiefs' defense tightened up the bolts and were instrumental in KC's 6-0 SU run by forcing 16 turnovers, allowing just 311.7 YPG and 10.9 PPG. All is not well for this game, however. Star defensive lineman Chris Jones (Covid) is most likely out. KC has stepped up with other linemen during their run and there is a good shot they can attack the Chargers' weakness along the offensive line. Chargers, already playing two backups along their offensive line, most likely will be without LT Slater (Covid). Former Chargers' drop down linebacker Melvin Ingram will be aiming to work LT sub Trey Pipkins. KC secondary much better than week 3 and should do a better job keeping Chargers' star receivers Allen and Williams in check. Furthermore, versatile RB Ekeler (questionable) on a short week to heal a sprained ankle. On the other hand, Chiefs' offensive line gradually getting it together and should start opening holes for Edwards-Helaire against a leaky Chargers' run-stop-unit ranked 31st in the NFL allowing a generous 141 YPG. Consequently, that would open up the passing game for Mahomes, Hill and Kelsey to get back to their high octane game. Technically, Chargers 0-4 ATS as a dog vs opponent with revenge. Road team in this series 15-5-1 ATS. And Coach Reid a sweet 13-3 ATS as a favorite off double digit ATS win. Chiefs the call. 

 Rams/Cardinals 8:15: Rams started season well, then underachieved since October 24th going on an 0-5 ATS plunge before blowing out the Jags last Sunday. Rams, along with Arizona, are arguably the two most talented teams in the NFL on paper. Arizona has lived up to its billing to a certain extent while the Rams are overdue to get it going. We'll look for Los Angeles to deliver here; after all, they haven't lost in Arizona since 2014. They're 6-0 ATS on Arizona's home field. Sure, the Rams are well aware they laid an egg at San Francisco on Monday, November 15th. Yet, they're still 6-2 ATS on MNF on the road vs a division opponent and they're seeking to avenge their 37-20 loss in Los Angeles earlier this season. Arizona is a miserable 1-7 ATS on MNF vs a division opponent and 1-5 ATS as a MNF home favorite. We'll back the Rams here. 

49ers/Bengals 4:25: Bengals coming off a disappointing loss at home to the Chargers.  A game in which they were on their way to making a miraculous comeback before RB Joe Mixon fumbled and the Chargers scooped and scored to put it away. Bengals have resilience in them. Burrow, who practiced this week with sore finger, is a sweet 8-2 ATS off a loss as a starter. Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS as a dog after allowing 35+. They're also 6-0 ATS as a non-division home dog off a SU favorite loss. 49ers who will have Deebo Samuel back, are a money burner as a favorite at 4-11 ATS and 1-4 ATS in December. Samuel, the fuel to the SF offense, is dealing with a groin issue and I'm finding it hard to fathom he'll be able to go full throttle today. We'll look for Cincinnati to deliver here. 

Detroit/Denver 4:05: Had Detroit last week in their epic last second win at home vs Minnesota; today, I'm fading them against a hungry Denver team. Denver's coming off a disappointing divisional loss to KC but still in the playoff hunt. Broncos are 10-1 ATS after scoring less than 15 points. They're also 11-2 ATS vs teams under .500. Moreover, they're 10-1 ATS as favorites of more than 4 points vs an opponent off a SU dog win. Broncos will have Melvin Gordon back today to add to the quality RB depth after Javonte Williams (102 rush yards last week) did a bang up job in KC. Don't see the Lions hanging with a well disciplined Vic Fangio coached defense, especially without a run game this late in the season. And the Lions had nearly a dozen players down with the flu mid week. Broncos should wear them down over the course of this game. Denver the call. 

Ravens/Browns 1:00: Huge scheduling advantage for Cleveland who are coming off a bye in revenge mode from November 28th loss. In that game, they intercepted Lamar Jackson 4X yet still lost the game. Browns had time to rest and get healthy, watch film and prep for a team that's absolutely owned them in recent years. Meanwhile, Ravens coming off loss to Steelers last week and lost their Pro Bowl C Marlon Humphrey (pec). Cleveland absolutely has to win this game to contend for a playoff spot. This time, we'll look for the Browns to establish some semblance of a run game this time around. Bottom line, mid December bye week should pay dividends and give them the win and cover.

Saints/Jets 1:00: Saints way overdue to get untracked after dropping 5 straight games. New Orleans offense, which has been dreadful during their slide, gets a significant boost with Alvin Kamara back. Also LT Armstead returning will help vs a Jets' defense last in virtually every category in the NFL. QB Taysom Hill should find a semblance of a rhythm running the offense this week. And the Jets are severely shorthanded with eight players out of practice as of Wednesday. Jets are 5-14 ATS after allowing 30+ points. Saints a decent road favorite at 17-8 ATS and 9-3 ATS on the road vs teams below .500. Saint the call. 

Steelers/Vikings 8:20: Both teams in desperation mode and still in playoff hunt. Minnesota in a bit more dire need of a win after two straight losses, including embarrassing outright defeat Sunday at Detroit. The Vikings, one game behind Washington and SF for the final NFC Playoff spot, has been atrocious defensively over the last four weeks - allowing 29 or more points in 4 of the last 5 weeks. That is highly uncharacteristic of a defensive minded Mike Zimmer coached team. Help is on the way though. Vikings will get back perennial All-Pro C Patrick Peterson, and important LBs Kendricks and Barr. Fortunately, banged up interior line of Pittsburgh stays banged up with B.J. Finney and Joe Haeg remain out. And protecting Big Ben and unleashing RB Najee Harris has been a problem for most of the year. Offensively, Minnesota will miss Thielen (out) but Justin Jefferson is a matchup nightmare and K.J. Osborn is a decent secondary or third option along with TE Conklin. And Dalvin Cook (shoulder), the engine that fuels the Minnesota offense, could actually play, which would be awesome. He's upgraded as questionable with limited practice. Bottom line, Kirk Cousins, underrated QB, should be able to work the struggling Steelers' secondary. Technically, Vikings not a good favorite, but 7-1 ATS at home off a SU loss vs a greater than .500 opponent. Moreover, Zimmer is a sweet 11-2 ATS off back-to-back SU losses vs non-division foes. Furthermore, Vikings 5-0 ATS on Thursdays off a SU loss. Steelers a money burning 1-5 ATS on Thursdays vs an opponent off SU loss. Take the Vikings. 

Patriots/Bills 8:15: Bills have alternated wins and losses since October 10th. Sure, they're still an elite team but have their flaws. One of them is the offensive line. Bills' offensive line mediocre at this time of year. Since October, each time the Bills have lost the run game, they've lost the game: Tennessee, Jacksonville and Indianapolis all out run them and proceeded to win. NE now has their run game cooking with Harris and Stevenson behind a physical offensive line and Mac Jones is on with his receiving corps. Bills' top corner Tre'Davious White (ACL) is troublesome. On the other side of the ball, Patriots are locked in as the #1 defense in points allowed and #2 in takeaways. And Belichick has his edge rusher in Judon. Moreover, he's got a lock down corner in J.C. Jackson who should get the assignment on Bills' Diggs. And let us not forget that the Patriots got swept in this series last year including an embarrassing 38-9 demolition on their home field. Belichick doesn't take that lightly and now has the personnel to seek revenge. Belichick a sweet 14-2 ATS with revenge vs a division opponent in December. Take New England. 

Broncos/Chiefs 8:20: Both of these teams turning up the heat defensively. Love how the Broncos held the potent Chargers' offense to 13 points last week. Broncos have the #3 scoring defense in the NFL allowing just 17.8 PPG. Chiefs are actually turning it up defensively holding their last 4 foes to 17, 7, 14 and 9 points, respectively. Broncos have a more conservative ball control offense and will be without RB Melvin Gordon. This series has gone "under" in 3 of the last 4 games. Denver is 3-15 O/U when the 'total' is set at above 45 vs a conference opponent. Broncos are also 4-14 O/U vs the AFC West. Chiefs are coming off a bye week and 3-11-1 O/U in that role. These teams are a combined 14-30 O/U in December. We'll stay "under". 

Vikings/Lions 1:00: Lions stick around in games and dangerous as a dog; moreover, they're 5-0 ATS as a division home dog. The Lions traded blow for blow with Minnesota in Minneapolis on October 10th in a 19-17 SU loss but cover as an 8 point dog. Vikings do not play the favorite role well at 1-8 ATS and 0-4 ATS in December. Not having Delvin Cook (shoulder), who is the driving force of that offense, will put more pressure on QB Cousins to produce. Of course having Jefferson and Thielen is always a huge plus. And surely the Detroit defense leaves much to be desired; however, Minnesota defense struggling itself; as a matter of fact, they're 30th in yards allowed and yielding vs the run. Detroit won't have explosive RB Swift but Jamaal Williams a productive backup. Minnesota has a big void at MLB without Kendricks (63 solo, 4 sacks, 2 INTs). Detroit QB Goff has some solid weapons including TE Hockenson. We'll look for the well rested Lions to give that extra revenge effort and deliver its 3rd straight cover in this series. 

Giants/Dolphins 1:00:  Dolphins starting to roll and I don't see a setback here; after all, they're getting back DeVante Parker (activated) and C Deiter (activated). Meanwhile, Giants lose QB Daniel Jones (neck) and Shepard and Toney are doubtful. Can't have confidence in Mike Glennon who's record as a starter leaves much to be desired. Couple him with new OC Freddie Kitchens and that's a disaster waiting to happen. Dolphins' defense has been rock solid over the last 4 games allowing an average of just 11.5 PPG. Offensively, Tua starting to get in rhythm with his receivers. Giants are thin in the secondary and won't have an additional playmaker - CB Adoree Jackson (out). Miami a sweet 10-2 ATS at home vs less than .500 foes, 7-1 ATS vs an opponent off a home game, and 9-2 ATS off non-division vs less than .500 foe. Giants 3-12 ATS on the road vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Miami the call.

Chargers/Bengals 1:00: Tough schedule for the Chargers - Coming off a loss at Denver and now have to travel to Cincinnati. Bengals sport a 6-1 ATS mark in this series and they're coming off two strong wins at Las Vegas and home vs Pittsburgh where they grinded out 159 and 200 yards rushing, respectively. That doesn't bode well for the Chargers' yielding run-stop-unit that's last in the NFL allowing 145 YPG. Joe Mixon should continue to set things up for Joe Burrow. Burrow slinging the ball to multiple weapons -Chase, Higgins, Boyd and TE Uzomah. Chargers without C Asante Samuel won't help matters. December football means you got to be able to run the rock. Chargers ran for a mere 72 yards on the ground last week. Bengals control the #4 run stop unit in the NFL and can rush the passer.  LAC a money burning 2-12 ATS off a double-digit SU division road loss. We'll lay a field goal with Cincinnati. 

Cowboys/Saints 8:20: A few points of value with this Over/Under. Saints are limited in offensive weaponry. QB Taysom Hill should get the start but he doesn't have a lot of explosive options to go to. Kamara (knee) practiced on a limited basis this week and he is surely the best option for Hill to hook up with; however, he's been out 3 weeks and just had a few practices. Dallas' interim HC Quinn, who is also the DC, should adjust his defensive plan accordingly. The Cowboys' defense has given up more than enough explosive plays this year. Tonight, if Quinn has his deep defenders keep everything in front of them, he should be able to limit Saints' scoring. Dallas, on the other hand, should have Prescott's top receiver - Lamb - and on a limited basis - Cooper. Cowboys' run game, however, a concern. Just 64 rush yards last week and New Orleans' run-stop-unit allows just 91.9 YPG (#3). Saints' defense allows a respectable 22.6 PPG. Cowboys will be without both their offensive line coaches and HC McCarthy. Shouldn't affect play calling duties. Dallas, however, will be without RT Steele (Covid) and LT Smith really struggled last week after getting back into action recoverin from injuries. Technically, Dallas is 2-10 O/U vs the NFC South, 1-4 O/U as a road favorite and on a 1-4 O/U run. Saints 0-9 O/U Thursday run and this series is 1-4 O/U. We'll stay "under". 

Seahawks/Washington 8:15: Lots of bad news in the press on the Seahawks: riddled by injuries, Russ Wilson not in rhythm with receivers, defense struggling to make plays. Pete Carroll will have none of it. He's looking at going 7-0 down the stretch to make playoffs. I won't bet against him. Carroll is 14-2 ATS off back-to-back losses and the undisputed king of NFL coaches in Prime Time. Seattle a sweet 11-3 SU on MNF. Worried about the Seahawks going to the Eastern Time Zone? Seahawks a sweet 14-2 SU the last 16 with Carroll in that situation. Washington a money burning 5-12 as a home favorite on MNF and just 1-4 ATS in their last 4 at home. We'll grab the Seahawks.

Rams/Packers 4:25: Rams getting a bit too much credit by the odds-makers here. Sure, they're coming off a bye week and heavily determined to bounce back off two straight losses. Yet, the underachieving Rams control a mediocre defense given all the talent. Their defensive unit got worked at home vs Tennessee and embarrassed on Monday Night in San Francisco. Today, it's not going to get easier vs Aaron Rodgers and company on the near frozen tundra in Green Bay with the projected forecast at 35 degrees game time. Warm weathered Rams had difficulty on the West Coast in its last two games. Sure, Rodgers' toe is broken but it didn't stop him from dropping 385 yards passing with 4 TDs at Minnesota last week. And even if RB Aaron Jones is unable to go, AJ Dillon is an equally effective back. Packers covered 6 straight in this series and I expect a 7th. 

Chargers/Broncos 4:05: I know the Chargers are the sexy pick here; however, this series has been decided by 3 points or less over the last 3 meetings, including 19-16 Chargers win in Carson, CA last year. Denver, 15-7-1 ATS off a bye week; moreover, 15-2 ATS off a bye off SU loss. They had a week to stew over sluggish home performance vs Philadelphia. Fangio's boys 9-3 ATS as a dog off a SU/ATS loss. Denver had that extra week to heal up a beat up offensive line that's still missing guys but should be able to control the line of scrimmage; after all, Chargers' DT Joseph (Covid19) is out on a defensive front that's part of allowing a generous 145 YPG (32nd in the NFL!). Should allow Melvin Gordon III to make up for that late fumble on the 14th. And C Asante Samuel will be missed as Denver not short on playmakers in space: Sutton, Jeudy and Patrick all healthy and should help QB Bridgewater visit the end zone. Defensively, edge rushing extraordinaire - Bradley Chubb is off the IR and ready to give QB Herbert fits. Denver a sweet 9-1 ATS after scoring less than 15 points should deliver here. 

Bucs/Colts 1:00: Bucs coming off a big MNF win to get back their MOJO after a two game slide; however, that was at home, now they fly to Indianapolis on a short week, and without their starting LG Marpet (out). Meanwhile, Colts coming off a huge win last week at Buffalo as a 7 point dog. Their run game is cooking as RB Jonathon Taylor gashed a very good Buffalo run-stop-unit. Sure, they face the #1 run-stop-unit in the NFL today and get back NT Vita Vea but Indianapolis' offensive line is much better than the Giants' offensive line. And Wentz is at his best, like any solid quarterback in the NFL, when that run game is working. With TY Hilton healthy with his skill teammates Pittman Jr., reserve RB Hines, and even Pascal, there is more than enough quality offense to work the thin TB secondary. And don't discount the Indy defense. They're an opportunistic bunch led by All-Pro LB Darius Leonard. TB just 5-15-2 ATS off a SU win of 14+, 0-6 ATS as a road favorite. Colts a dangerous 4-0 ATS as a dog and we'll grab them here!

Titans/Patriots 1:00: Titans a dangerous dog but limited in skill personnel for interception prone Tannehill. The Titans already without WR Julio Jones and RB Derrick Henry, now won't have A.J. Brown (on IR). That leaves the Titans going deep on their bench to go against the premier secondary in the NFL that's playing exceptionally well. Tannehill, who threw 4 INTs last week, should have an even more difficult time with the well disciplined Patriots' defense. On the other hand, Titans' defense riddled with injuries and facing a well oiled offensive machine with QB Mac Jones and company. No question that Belichick is still fuming inside losing to Vrabel in the playoffs two seasons ago in the playoffs on January 4th 2020 in Foxborough with Tom Brady. We'll look for the master to teach his disciple a lesson today. Patriots 40-15 ATS after allowing less than 250 yards, and 21-8 off a win by 14+. New England the call. 

Bills/Saints 8:20: See a defensive battle here. Saints' offense stuck in neutral without any playmakers (Kamara and Michael Thomas out). Should see versatile Taysom Hill manage the offense but limited with skill support. And Buffalo #1 defense (total yards) stewing after allowing Jonathon Taylor to run all over them. Bills 1-8 O/U off SU loss and 2-5 O/U off double-digit loss at home. Buffalo offense lackluster lately without a run game. New Orleans' defense, which is #3 vs the run, was also embarrassed last week as the Eagles ran roughshod on them. Saints' Cam Jordan and company should buckle down here. Saints 4-9 O/U after allowing more than 350 yards, and 0-9 O/U on Thursdays. We'll stay "under".  

Raiders/Cowboys 4:30: Cowboys are 4-0 ATS off a SU loss and covered 6 of their last 7 at home. I expect the Cowboys to come out firing on all cylinders here; after all, they get their starting LT Tyron Smith back and that's big news protecting Prescott's backside. And leading receiver Lamb (concussion protocol) should be good to go. Raiders' defense was very yielding to Joe Mixon last week. Look for Pollard to eat lots of field turf today to set Prescott up for play action. On the other hand, Raiders starting their late season collapse again as they seem direction-less under interim HC Bisaccia. Over the last two weeks, Raiders' offense on 3rd down attempts went 1 for 7 and 1 for 9, respectively. We'll look for the Dallas defense to step up its game today. Cowboys the call. 

Giants/Bucs 8:15: At first glance, seems like the Giants could be a big play here; after all, they're a ridiculous 20-6 ATS as a road dog, covered 5 of last 7 on MNF, traded blow for blow with TB last season on November 2nd in a 25-23 loss as a 13 point home dog, and they're a ridiculous 12-1 ATS as a conference road dog of 5 or more points. Furthermore, they're coming off a bye-week which offers a huge advantage this time of year to rest and heal. And remember, explosive RB Barkley makes his return, dominant WR Golladay finally should be showcased against an inferior TB secondary that's been scorched the last few weeks. And hard studying Daniel Jones should be prepared under the tutelage of OC Garrett. And defensively, DC Patrick Graham had a solid plan in check last year to successfully disrupt Brady and company for about 57 minutes. But hold everything. After a further look, the Buccaneers have been crushing teams at home and a pissed off Brady is not one to go against off two straight losses; after all, he's 51-15 SU off a loss. As a Giants' backer, however, Brady won't have vertical threat Antonio Brown (ankle) for explosive scores. Bad news for the G Men is that TE Gronk (ribs) should be back. Defensively, however, TB secondary has issues, 350 pound NT beast Vita Vea (knee) is doubtful, and Richard Sheman is on the IR with other important TB secondary cogs. Technically, TB just 1-5 ATS on MNF. Giants should stay in this one. 

Ravens/Bears 1:00: Ravens, already decimated by injuries, had their QB Jackson under the weather for most of the week. He did practice with team Friday and that surely influenced the line. We'll grab the near TD with the home team here. Bears showed some moxie at Pittsburgh November 8th as the run game averaged 5 YPC and Fields threw for 278 yards. Baltimore is the worst pass defense in the NFL. They already lost C Marcus Peters and will be without S Deshone Elliot. The Bears are coming off their bye week and that's always a plus this time of year. Defensively, Bears won't have Mack (out for season) but still have a solid defense led by LB Roquan Smith. Bears are an amazing 15-1 ATS as a home dog of more than 4 points off back-to-back losses. And Chicago sports an 9-2 SU and 8-2-1 ATS mark in their last 8 games vs AFC North opponents. We'll grab the points and the Bears.

Washington/Carolina 1:00: Lots of hype on the return of Cam Newton as the starter. Sure, he ignited a spark as a gadget player around the goal line last week en-route to an easy win over Arizona; however, inserting him as a starter after several years away with a new coaching staff, including a new OC, is a tall order. Washington defense has underachieved this year and Chase Young's season ending injury hurts but they stepped up last week vs the incumbent champs and definitely capable of delivering today. Washington's HC Rivera, who was fired after the 2019 season, is eager to not only revenge last year's 20-13 loss at home but to stick it to the franchise that let him go. Washington defense improving and starting to become the defense they were projected to be in pre-season. DC Del-Rio will have a solid game plan this week to limit McCaffery and keep the heat on Newton. Offensively, Washington should have Curtis Samuel back to add to a respectable receiving corps for QB Taylor Heinicke. Technically, Washington is 4-1 ATS in Week 11, 10-4 ATS off a SU win, and 9-1 ATS off a SU dog win. Carolina 4-12 ATS at home, 1-6 ATS as home chalk, and 1-6 ATS as a home favorite of more than 1 point vs a less than .500 opponent. With Washington 5-2 ATS at Carolina, we'll grab the points with the road team.

Colts/Bills 1:00: Revenge game for the Colts. They've had plenty of time to stew over their 27-24 loss at Buffalo last January in the AFC Wild Card. Although the defense is down a few notches from last year, the Colts are in a better place as a team than a year ago. They've won 4 of their last 5 and covered 5 of their last 7. Wentz has settled in as a solid signal caller, especially on the road (4) where he's thrown for 974 yards, 6 TDs and 0 INTs. He's got a solid supporting cast, including a pretty healthy offensive line now that LG Quenton Nelson is back. Jonathon Taylor is averaging 6.9 YPC with 7 TDs in his last 5 games. And with T.Y. Hilton back in the fray, Wentz has a great variety of targets to go to in Pittman, Pascal, TE Doyle and versatile backs Hines and Taylor. On the other hand, Colts defense down a notch from last year but making plays. And hopefully All-Pro linebacker Leonard (ankle) is good to go. Colts are 8-2 ATS last 10 on the road and sport a solid 17-8-1 ATS November ledger. We'll take the points. 

Saints/Eagles 1:00: Not sold on the Eagles and don't give up on the Saints. Eagles coming off a comfortable win over the Broncos in what was perhaps their most complete game of the year. Eagles a young team and with youth comes inconsistency. Saints have a veteran team, winning culture and lots of pride. After last year's losing effort, in a game in which the Eagles ran all over them, the Saints' #1 run stop unit in the NFL should show up big and take away what Philly does best - run the rock. On the other hand, Saints no longer the explosive offense now that Brees has departed, but Siemian is tutored well under Sean Payton. Siemian has been an efficient passer with 5 TD passes and 0 interceptions in his 3 games. Deonte Harris has emerged as his go to guy and Mark Ingram II is capable of keeping the run game going. Eagles are a poor 1-5 ATS as home chalk, and 0-5 SU in their last 5 home games. Saints are 4-0 ATS off a SU loss and a sweet 24-8 ATS as a road dog. Other than the disastrous September 19th game at Carolina (my Top Play that week), the Saints have been competitive in every game this season. Today, they deliver.    

Patriots/Falcons 8:20: Statistically, Falcons sport a solid mark on Thursday but Patriots cancel that out with a 5-1 ATS mark on Thursday as a .500 or greater team vs a non division opponent. Patriots are actually 8-1 SU/ATS all time as favorites of fewer than 7 points vs the NFC South.  Falcons' defense has been sketchy most of the year under Pees (former Belichick disciple). They allow 48% conversions on 3rd down, have trouble getting to QB (1.2 sacks per game), and are 31st in the NFL in scoring defense (29.2 PPG). That won't cut it vs a surging NE offense with a physical offensive line that's beating defensive fronts to the punch with a running game led by Damien Harris (probable) and the emergence of QB Mac Jones who has been outstanding during NE's winning run. On the other hand, Falcons' offense doesn't have the weaponry to put a significant dent in the Patriots' defense. Falcons, already without Calvin Ridley (personal), most likely won' have Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) ready to go on a short week. And Belichick is the master of taking away the strength of a team's offense in which for Atlanta is TE Kyle Pitts. With the Falcons' pedestrian run game (29th in league with 82.9 YPG) not clicking, I don't see Atlanta visiting the end zone on the Patriots' #2 scoring defense in the NFL. We'll lay the near TD here. 

Rams/49ers 8:15: Rams having issues on offensive line that are preventing them from being the elite offense they're capable of. Tennessee surely exploited it last week. And much ado about nothing regarding bringing in Beckham Jr. He had one practice and surely will be used sparingly. What's of more concern is loss of Robert Woods (ACL). SF's defense at its best when edge rusher Bosa is healthy. Secondary injuries have mounted so 49ers' d-line will have to be at its best. On the other hand, Rams' defense under DC Morris not what it was last year under Staley yet still productive. Top receiver - Samuel should be matched up by lock down corner Ramsey. SF 1-4 O/U as a dog and 7-19 O/U off double-digit SU loss at home. They're also 5-15-1 O/U after allowing 30+ points. Rams are 1-4 O/U off a double-digit loss at home, 1-4 O/U November and 2-12 O/U when the O/U line is above 50. It's currently at 50.5. This series is 2-6 O/U in SF and we'll stay "under". 

Seahawks/Packers 4:25: The "total" elevated on news Russell Wilson (finger) and Aaron Rodgers (Covid19) were cleared. Sure, both offenses immediately upgraded but can't ignore the stats: Green Bay's defense has been the best it has been in years under new DC Joe Barry. Packers' defense #5 in the NFL in total yards allowed and #6 in total points (20 PPG) allowed. Russell Wilson is magical on the field but he's limited as the Seattle run game can't get generated (21st in league) as injuries mount in the backfield. On the other hand, Seattle defense has improved the last few weeks showing an ability to make stops in crucial moments. Both these teams are a combined 3-14 O/U this season. We'll look for a lower scoring game on the frozen tundra today.

Eagles/Broncos 4:25: All over the Broncos last week and staying on them here. Eagles coming off a loss at home to the Chargers and now have to travel mile high to Denver. Broncos feeling good about themselves after blasting the Cowboys in Dallas last week. Broncos' Fangio a sweet 12-1 ATS vs non-division foes off non-division game, and they're 8-0 ATS vs a less than .500 foe off a SU loss. Broncos 4-1 ATS last 5 in this series. Broncos should add C Pat Surtain (knee) back in the lineup; moreover, TE Noah Fant is activated off the Covid19 list - a big addition considering Tim Patrick (knee) is questionable. Denver's defense (#2 in points allowed) keeps them in games. And unlike last year when Drew Lock would throw an interception late to cost them a close game, Teddy Bridgewater does a nice job of managing the clock and making plays. Eagles are about a year away from closing out games on the winning end and we're staying on the Broncos here. 

Vikings/Chargers 4:05: Vikings are a solid road team and dangerous dog. We'll grab them here. Dalvin Cook is reasonably healthy for this time of year and should find holes in a LA run stop unit that is yielding (162 YPG) dead last in the league. Underrated QB Cousins should work well off the play action. His targets - Jefferson and Thielen hard to stop. On the other hand, Herbert and company tear it up offensively. And sure, S Harrison is out and that is a concern but Minnesota has shown that they can get after the QB this year (3.4 sacks per game). Zimmer a sweet 11-2 ATS off back to back SU losses vs a non division foe. Minnesota has covered there last 3 on the road and have covered 4 straight in this series. Minnesota the call.

Jacksonville/Indianapolis 1:00: Division game in which Jacksonville has dominated the series to the tune of 9-1 ATS. Thought this line, however, would be shifted higher to the Colts. Last two games in Indianapolis had the Colts beating them SU by 20 and 14, respectively with the ATS money going to Jacksonville. The Jaguars, of course, coming off the monster upset of Buffalo but unlikely to follow up here. Buffalo played sloppy football with 12 penalties accumulating 118 yards. Colts are a disciplined offense under Reich. And unlike Buffalo, should be able to get the run game going with Jonathan Taylor (821 rushing yards/8 TDs). And with vertical threat T.Y. Hilton (concussion) back on the field, the Colts should continue to roll offensively. And the Colts, who are well rested off last Thursday's win, should be able to clean up secondary issues against the 31st ranked offense in terms of points scored (16.5 PPG). Reich a sweet 10-2 ATS as a favorite vs an opponent off a SU win. We'll roll with Indy. 

Ravens/Miami 8:20: We have to be leery of TD+ favorites at this stage of the season; after all, dogs have been covering cross the board over the last week. However, hard to go with a Miami team in the bottom tier on both sides of the ball. Moreover, Baltimore has dominated this series to the tune of 9-0 ATS including the 59-10 whitewash in Miami in 2019. Baltimore's QB Jackson, who's improving dramatically on his passing game, should have his full receiving arsenal now that Sammy Watkins is good to go. And RBs Freeman and Bell are turning back the clock in run production off a solid game vs Minnesota. As for Miami, Tua has a fractured middle finger and going to be difficult to spin the ball. Brissett should get the nod. He does have a few good targets in TE Gesicki and WR Waddle; however, run game ranks last in the NFL and that should be trouble vs the aggressive defense DC Martindale employs. We'll lay the points but tread lightly. 

Bears/Steelers 8:15: Steelers' offensive line starting to gel a bit. They helped the run game grind out over 100 yards vs a good Browns' run-stop-unit. Steelers should be able to get RB Harris going to open up the play action game for Big Ben. Roethlisberger has a healthy list of weaponry, including Johnson, Claypool, Washington and TE Freirmuth. Bears' secondary wearing thin as S Eddie Jackson nursing a hamstring. And without Khalil Mack (foot), yardage should be had. On the other hand, don't see the Bears' pedestrian offense run all over Pittsburgh's respectable run-stop-unit. Bears' QB Fields should have a decent career but he's struggling in his early stages. And even though Montgomery (Questionable) is cleared to go, Steelers' DC Butler should have his men prepared; after all, Bears' run game (#6 in NFL) fuels an offense ranked 32 in the NFL. Steelers' Tomlin 24-4 vs rookie QBs. Bears 0-4 ATS on MNF vs an opponent off SU/ATS upset win. Steelers sport a solid 14-9 ATS mark on MNF and we'll lay the TD here. 

Falcons/Saints 1:00: Saints' uncertainty at QB gives way to a tightly contested division game here. Saints most likely will go with Siemian. Atlanta HC Smith actually mentored Siemian when they were together in Tennessee. We'll look for the yielding Atlanta defense to shape up today; after all, Siemian is limited in weaponry outside of versatile RB Kamara. Saints coming off big win over TB last week now face a hungry division opponent off a tough loss last week. Saints haven't played the favorite role well lately at 1-4 ATS. This is a double revenge game for Atlanta with last year's sweep. Look for the Falcons to heavily contest it today. 

Broncos/Cowboys 1:00: Value with the Broncos here. Sure, everything's seemingly great in Dallas nowadays as they sit atop the division, well rested and get QB Prescott back. But keep in mind there are some key injury concerns with the receiving corps: Cooper (hamstring), TE Jarwin (hip) placed on IR Wednesday, and Cee Dee Lamb (ankle). Moreover, their key lineman - LT Tyron Smith - who protects the back of Prescott on pass plays - is OUT. Bridgewater (23-5 ATS on the road) has enough weaponry - Gordon, Jeudy, Sutton - to make plays behind a patchwork but scrappy offensive line. And defensive minded Fangio gets the most out of his defensive personnel. Fangio and the Broncos are 11-1 ATS vs non-division foes off non-division games. Cowboys just 3-7 ATS as non-conference home favorites of 10 or less. We'll take the double digits. 

Bills/Jaguars 1:00: Hard to imagine the Jaguars, which are in the bottom tier of most categories offensively and defensively, hanging with the Bills which are in the top tier offensively and defensively. Jaguars have been turnover laden offensively and their top yardage producer - RB Robinson is battling a heel injury. Defensively, Jaguars have just 11 sacks on the year and should have problems containing QB Josh Allen for 4 quarters; after all, besides a wealth of riches at his disposal: Diggs, Singletary, Beasley, Sanders, he may have TE Knox back for this one as well. Buffalo a good November team (9-1 ATS) and do well in Jacksonville (4-1 ATS). We'll roll with Buffalo.

Raiders/Giants 1:00: Giants had a huge opportunity to win last Monday's game at Kansas City. A drive stalling taunting penalty cost them; nevertheless, they covered the big number for me. Today, I'm back on them. Sure, Barkley likely won't play and they've got more injury concerns on both sides of the ball; however, Daniel Jones doing a decent job managing the offense and he still has enough weaponry to keep the ball moving with TE Engram, WRs Toney and Slayton and, perhaps, Golladay (knee/hip) who would be gravy if he's good to go. Giants' defense is yielding but making plays and gives them a chance here. Raiders, of course, will be without vertical threat Ruggs (released) and will have to travel cross country in a rough spot. Raiders a dismal 1-16 ATS on the road off back-to-back wins. Sure, they're coming off a bye week; however, just 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off byes. Giants 5-1 ATS in November and 6-1 ATS after allow less than 90 yards rushing. We'll grab the points with the G-Men. 

Jets/Colts 8:20: QB Mike White became a cult hero in NY on Sunday tossing for 405 yards, 3 TDs in his first NFL start; however, he's not going to sneak up on the Colts tonight. He did throw 2 INTs on Sunday to add to the Jets 15 turnovers on the year. Colts control an opportunistic defense (#1 in NFL capturing turnovers). The ruckus Indianapolis crowd should make Mike White uncomfortable, along with a DeForest Buckner and company, in his first NFL road start. Jets haven't been a good road team (15-33-3 ATS as a traveler) going 14-33 ATS in their last 47 games as a road dog. The Colts are coming off a devastating loss to the Titans but the Colts are a sweet 8-0 ATS off a SU favorite loss. Reich and Colts also sport a 10-2 ATS mark as a favorite vs a foe off a SU win. Colts' offense should percolate against a Jets' defense that allows a generous 29.4 PPG. Colts' QB Wentz won't have Hilton but has explosive weaponry RB Jonathon Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. to add to explosive plays vs the yielding Jets' defense. We'll lay the wood here with Indy. 

Giants/Chiefs 8:15: Chiefs have to address defensive issues - allowing 29 PPG and 406 YPG - both at the bottom tier of the league. Giants clearly no offensive juggernaut but do get a few more playmakers back this week in Toney and Shepard. And Daniel Jones is protecting the ball better this season and starting to connect with his TE Engram. On the other hand, Mahomes is having trouble protecting the ball with 9 INTs and 2 fumbles. Giants bring an aggressive front line led by Leonard Williams (sacks in 3 of last 4 games). Giants have done some good work on the road with an outstanding 22-7 ATS mark as a road dog. KC sports a money burning 4-13 ATS mark as chalk. We'll look for NY to hang around. Take the double digits. 

Jaguars/Seahawks 4:05: Thought this line would be tilting more on the favorite side of Seattle. I do realize Jaguars are coming off a bye week while Seattle is on a short week. And I also realize Geno Smith is a career backup for a clear cut reason, but he still has a decent surrounding cast of players. And going against a soft Jaguars defense will feel great compared to the formidable unit (New Orleans) Seattle faced Monday. Seattle desperately needs a win here going into their bye week. Then there may be better days ahead as the quick healing Russell Wilson most likely will be back. Carroll should keep his men focused here; after all, he's 14-3 ATS off back-to-back SU losses. Seattle the call. 

Dolphins/Bills 1:00: We won't let the number scare us. Bills coming off disappointing loss to Tennessee on the 18th. They had an additional week to stew over that loss and get healthier. Bills are at the top of the league on both sides of the ball whereas the Dolphins are at the bottom tier of the NFL on both sides of the ball. Bills 10-2 ATS with rest off SU loss. Bills roll. 

Titans/Colts 1:00: Hard to get off the Titans' bandwagon now. They've knocked off top tier teams of Buffalo and Kansas City and already control a win at home vs Indianapolis in Week 3. Tennessee is 3-1 ATS at Indy. King Henry continues to find ways to beat teams and Tannehill has the play action game working. Moreover, the Titans' defense has shaped into a solid unit - making big time plays when needed. Titans 5-2 ATS as a road dog while Indianapolis is a mere 2-5 ATS in their last 7 as a home favorite. Tennessee the call.

Panthers/Falcons 1:00: Had the Falcons (-1') last week in a narrow win over Miami. What appeared to be a solid cover late in the game turned out to be a sweat down the stretch because of a shaky defense (#30 scoring defense allowing 29.6 PPG). Today, I'm fading the Falcons who appear to be gaining momentum; a closer look, however, reveals the their light schedule enabling them to get back into contention; after all, they've taken on the last four teams going a combined 6-21! Giants, Washington, Jets and Dolphins not exactly murderer's row of the NFL. And they were outgained in 3 of those last 4 games. Sure, Carolina is struggling offensively. Rhule will figure it out. He's 8-2 ATS on the road. Darnold should get back in rhythm with his skill guys; after all, he's got some pretty good targets in DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, and versatile back Chuba Hubbard - who's no McCaffrey but has skill. Carolina looked crappy vs an underrated Giants' defense last week; today, Carolina delivers. Panthers 21-6 ATS as a road dog off a SU favorite loss. 

Packers/Cardinals 8:20: Close to going on Cardinals here; after all, they're undefeated, have a wealth of riches at the disposal of Kyler Murray, including recently picked up TE Ertz. And they do have the #4 ranked defense; however, Arizona has disappointed as a home favorite (9-20 ATS) routinely. And under the Thursday Night Lights, the Cardinals are 1-5 ATS vs .500 opposition. Moreover, Cards are 0-5 ATS off a double-digit ATS win vs a less than .700 non-division opponent. As for the Packers, sure, they're down a few receivers including QB Rodgers' top target Adams and another key wideout in Lazard - both on Covid 19 protocol. There is a possibility Adams could be on the field providing he has two negative tests prior to kickoff. If he's not available, Rodgers still has versatile RB Aaron Jones behind a relative healthy offensive line to dent a mediocre run-stop-unit (18th in NFL) of Arizona which will not have J.J. Watt (out). There's also quality receivers in veteran Randall Cobb, TEs Tonyan and Mercedes Lewis. And keep in mind that Aaron Rodgers is 6-0 SU without the services of Davante Adams. Defensively, GB is much better than in years past under the leadership of DC Joe Barry. Barry (out Covid19 list) went over the defensive plan via Zoom meetings and is well in hand with his assistants. Packers 5-1 ATS on Thursdays vs an opponent off a SU win. We'll back the Pack!

TAKE SEATTLE (+4):

Saints/Seahawks 8:15: Saints coming off a bye week but still have injuries, especially receiving corps where they're thin. Seahawks defense shaky under Norton Jr. but have playmakers in secondary with safeties Diggs and Adams who can make plays. Saints at the bottom tier in NFL in pass game so Carroll will surely have good defensive plan to disrupt error prone QB Winston. On the other side of the ball, Seattle's offensive line is relatively healthy and Penny comes off the IR. He may have a big game to help Geno Smith out. Smith has some great targets in Metcalf, Lockett and Swain. We won't count the Seahawks out even without Wilson. Pete Carroll usually finds ways to win these games; after all, he's 13-2 ATS off back-to-back SU losses. Moreover, on MNF, Seattle is a sweet 7-1 ATS as a home dog, 5-0 ATS off back-to-back SU losses! Seattle the call. 

Colts/49ers 8:20: Value with a Colts team that's on a 3-0 ATS run. Indy has covered in their last 3 trips to San Francisco. Wentz is now starting to be the QB Indianapolis thought he could be. Under his old tutor with Phily, now Colts' HC Reich has Wentz playing well. Tonight, he won't have vertical threat - Hilton (out); however, LG Quenton Nelson is good to go. That's good news for the the run game led by Jonathon Taylor (472 yards rushing w/ 4 TDs). And there is Pittman Jr., Pascal and RB Hines who are having success in the improving Colts' offense. 49ers not having success closing out games. And they're a ridiculous 0-14 ATS as a home favorite vs less than .500 opponent. Colts the call. 

Eagles/Raiders 4:05: Eagles had a few more prep days for this and should make the best of it. Dog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings while the road team is 4-1 ATS. Raiders have yet to get their run game established. Eagles have not been good against the run and outrushed in 4 of 6 games. But Raiders run game produces just under 80 yards a game. Eagles do play the pass well and can pressure the QB with limited blitzing. On the other hand, Eagles' offense overdue to get cooking. And surely Philadelphia plays better on the road. We'll grab the Eagles.

Bengals/Ravens 1:00: Baltimore has blown out Cincinnati in the last 3 meetings but look for this one to be competitive. Bengals have been in every game this season and look to take over first place the AFC North with a win here. Thanks to a much improved defense, the Bengals are no longer a pushover. And the Burrow - Chase connection is tough to stop when Mixon is running the rock well. Baltimore has been suspect in the secondary (26th in the NFL) because of injuries. Bengals have covered 3 of their last 4 at Baltimore and we'll ride them here. 

Falcons/Dolphins 1:00: Scheduling advantage for the Falcons here. Both of these teams played in London recently; however, Falcons played there on the 10th and had a bye week while Miami played there last week. Falcons are relatively healthy and veteran QB Ryan is getting in good rhythm with #1 draft choice TE Pitts. On the other hand, Miami ranks at the bottom tier of the league in most categories offensively and defensively. Miami has regressed significantly from a year ago and key players (C Xavien Howard / WR Parker) are limited in practice. I'm going to back the well rested Falcons with the better QB and defense.

Broncos/Browns 8:20: Browns' got offensive line injuries, top running backs - Chubb (calf), Hunt (calf) - out and QB Mayfield (shoulder) out. Surely the defensively stout Broncos, also eaten by the injury bug to their linebacker corps, are hungry to shut down the Browns' struggling offense. Browns' offense is fueled by their outstanding run game behind Chubb and Hunt. Replacement RB E'Ernest Johnson respectable in 38 career games but not the Pro Bowl caliber of the aforementioned. And behind a patchwork offensive line, it will be difficult for QB Keenum to get the play action going. Browns a money burning 4-26 ATS after running for less than 90 yards in previous game. On the other hand, look for QB Bridgewater (foot) to play. And star WR Jeudy off the IR and practicing. Should be good to go. Browns' defense is solid despite having a few bad games vs formidable offenses. Broncos' offense surely not explosive but can put together sustainable drives. Denver's Fangio a sweet 11-1 ATS vs non division foe off a non division game. And Fangio is a sweet 9-1 ATS off a division game. Broncos are 13-6 SU on Thursday and should deliver.

Denver/Cleveland 8:20: Both defenses got worked the last few weeks but against very good offenses. Denver had the duty to stop Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Las Vegas - and weren't able to match points with their offensive production. On the other hand, Cleveland is coming off two explosive offenses in LA Chargers and Arizona. Offensive injuries contributed to a stall out in offensive production for them. Tonight, on a short week. a patchwork Cleveland offense led by Case Keenum should struggle to engineer successful drives vs the well disciplined unit that Fangio puts on the field. On the other hand, Cleveland defense should get back to being solid on the defensive end against a significant drop off in offensive talent. Browns 3-10 O/U after a double-digit loss at home. Broncos a proud 0-5 O/U after allowing 30+ points previously and 6-21-1 O/U after allowing 350+ yards previously. "Under" the call. 

Buffalo/Tennessee 8:15: Buffalo established itself as the class of the AFC with a resounding win over KC last week. And their defense is much more formidable than last year's. They are at the top of the NFL in multiple categories. But hold everything. Tennessee is by far the best running team they face. Derek Henry ran roughshod over them last year en route to a 42-16 demolition. Tennessee has the #2 rushing team in the NFL at 168 YPG. And Julio Jones surely offers an additional threat to compliment A.J. Brown (questionable). Titans' defense yielding but can make stops at key times in games. Tannehill and company should be able to stay in this one. On MNF, Tennessee is 16-3 ATS as a dog vs an opponent off SU/ATS wins. Buffalo on MNF, however, just 2-7 ATS off back to back SU wins. We'll grab the points here. 

Seattle/Pittsburgh 8:20: I won't discount the Seahawks and Pete Carroll. They're 33-15-4 ATS off a SU loss and 12-5 ATS as a dog. Sure, defense is sluggish and Russell Wilson is on the IR. Nevertheless, Seattle pulled off some nice extended drives under Geno Smith. And the Seahawks manage to make necessary stops when needed. Seahawks should rally behind Geno Smith as he puts together a performance vs his former team. Seahawks' defense will have one less weapon to worry about as Smith-Schuster went down with season ending shoulder injury last week. Steelers do not play the favorite role well at 0-6 ATS.  And remember that Pete Carroll remains the Prime Time TV king at 10-3 ATS. Seattle the call. 

Raiders/Broncos 4:25: Raiders in a disarray after the demise of Gruden. Interim HC Bisaccia will have his work cut out for him keeping LV focused. Raiders' not getting it done offensively: run game shoddy (78 YPG) and just 19 PPG. Denver defense under Fangio rock solid #2 in points allowed at 15.2 PPG. On the other hand, Broncos no offensive juggernaut themselves but Bridgewater has been good managing the offense (7 TD/1 INT) and Melvin Gordon III should be good to go behind a solid offensive line. Raiders 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, and 1-6 ATS after rushing for less than 90 YPG. Fangio looking for double revenge from last year's Raiders' sweep. We'll lay the points.

Raiders/Broncos 4:25: Raiders hot start has fizzled with Gruden's exit. Raiders are producing just 19 PPG and can't generate a run game (78 rush yards per game). Denver's defense in good hands under defensive mastermind Fangio. On the other hand, Denver's offense struggling on 3rd down. And having their top 2 receivers - Jeudy and Hamilton out won't help matters. Raiders play the pass well (#3 in NFL). Heavy "under" trends by Denver, including 6-21-1 O/U after allowing 350 yards through the air, and they're 8-17 O/U at home. Raiders 2-7 O/U as a road dog. This series is historically low scoring at 1-8 O/U and 1-5 O/U in Denver. Fangio determined to avenge last year's season sweep and should deliver. He's 0-5 O/U with revenge vs division. "Under" the call. 

Vikings/Panthers 1:00: Carolina, coming off two tough losses, should get it together today. They're seeking to avenge last year's 28-27 loss to the Vikings. Panthers' Matt Rhule 4-0 ATS off SU/ATS loss w/ revenge. Vikings, a mid-level defense and solid producing offense - just can't put it consistently in the end zone (20th in points scored). Carolina defense is stingy allowing just 17.4 PPG (#3 in NFL). And offensively, Darnold due to get back on track. He has good skill weapons in Moore, Anderson and McCaffery's (IR) replacement - RB Chuba Hubbard. Minnesota not a good favorite at 0-7 ATS and 0-4 ATS off a SU win. Carolina the call. 

Dolphins/Jaguars 9:30: This one in London. Jaguars eager to break their 20 game losing streak and it should come here. Miami not the defense they were last year and it gets worse. Top corner Xavien Howard is out for the 30th ranked defense in total yards and points allowed. Should allow Lawrence to settle in with his weaponry. And keep in mind that RB James Robinson is running the rock (5.8 YPC) to more pressure off of Lawrence. As for the Miami offense, they're struggling. Tua should be back at the controls but his weaponry is limited with explosive vertical threats Parker and Fuller out. Jaguars the call. 

Bucs/Eagles 8:20: Gladly take the TD and the Eagles here. Eagles post a strong defensive front despite the loss of Brandon Graham for the season. Javon Hargrave and Fletcher Cox lead a strong defensive front while the secondary is solid in C Darius Slay and Steven Nelson. Linebacking corps average but getting better. TB run game not the greatest (26th in NFL) so Eagles can get away with a Nickle Back to help to stall out the dangerous Tom Brady and company. Gronk (ribs) will be out again and their C Jensen struggling with a hip injury. Defensively, TB won't have one the better LBs in the NFL Lavonte David (22 tackles, 1 sack) and edge rushing beast Pierre-Paul still struggling with shoulder problem; consequently, we'll look for the Eagles' offense to be able to move the football. TB not a good road favorite at 1-4 ATS and just 2-7 SU on Thursdays. They're also just 1-5 ATS off SU win of 14 or more and 1-5 ATS in Week 6. Eagles are 5-1 ATS on Thursdays, 6-2 AGTS in Week 6 and 5-2 ATS as a home dog; moreover, Philadelphia a sweet 7-0 ATS home off a SU dog win. Eagles the call!

Colts/Ravens 8:15: Colts play the run well. Lamar and company ran for 110 yards last year on Indianapolis. Tonight, Ravens looking to go 43 straight games of 100+ rushing yards. Indy won't make it easy on them for they take pride as run stoppers, especially with a healthy Darius Leonard in the lineup. Indy a strong 6-1 ATS at Baltimore. They're also 6-1 ATS w/ revenge off a SU/ATS win playing on MNF. Baltimore defense has some injuries and not the lockdown unit they're used to being. Interesting stat - Week 5 Indy is 11-3 ATS while Baltimore at the opposite end of the spectrum at 4-11 ATS. We'll look for Wentz and company, despite loss of WR Hilton and C Quenton Nelson, to hang around. Indy the call. 

Bills/Chiefs 8;20: Bills, off a breakthrough year in 2020 offensively, still possess a potent offense with Josh Allen and Diggs; however, this year, their defense is much improved (#1 in multiple categories). That should make a difference tonight. Bills can make stops whereas the KC Chiefs' defense has tailed off drastically - in the bottom tier of the NFL in multiple categories. Chiefs can still win games but not covering especially in one score games - 10-2 SU but 1-10-1 ATS in that category since last season. Bills the call. 

49ers/Cardinals 4:25: I was on the Cardinals (+4) last week at Los Angeles and delivered. Now it's time to get off the Cardinals, which inevitably struggle in this spot. Cardinals' Kingsbury 1-5 ATS vs a foe off a SU favorite loss. Of course, the 49ers are coming off a loss at home as a slight favorite to Seattle last week. 49ers won't have Garoppolo (calf) but Trey Lance is good to go. 49ers' run game with Mitchell and Sermon should assist Lance in moving the football vs the yielding run stop unit of Arizona (26th in NFL). Lance won't have TE Kittle (IR) but has some good targets, including Deebo Samuel to fuel the pass game. 49ers have played Arizona tough beating them in Arizona the last 2 times. Arizona a scary 0-15 ATS as a .500 or greater team at home off a division game and playing another division foe. We'll take the points. 

Browns/Chargers 4:05: Browns sport the #1 run game in the NFL behind Chubb and Hunt which square off vs a Chargers' defense that allows 140 YPG (29th in NFL). Should allow Mayfield to work his play action game to Higgins, Peoples-Jones, Hooper and Beckham Jr. - overdue to be unleashed. On the other hand, Browns making life miserable on QBs with edge rushers' Garrett (6 sacks) and Clowney - both questionable but good to go. Browns also, however, play the run well allowing just 66.5 YPG (3rd in NFL). Browns have covered 3 straight in Los Angeles. Chargers 4-10-1 ATS as home chalk. We'll grab the Browns. 

Dolphins/Bucs 1:00: Value with the underdog here. Miami has not looked good as a team since opening day win at New England. Defense has underachieved and the offense ranks at the bottom of the NFL in multiple categories. Meanwhile, TB 3-1 SU/1-3 ATS coming off big win over New England. Nevertheless, we'll look for the underachieving defense of Miami to step up. More importantly, need Miami offense to show it can move the football with Brissett the the controls. Miami 6-1 ATS after rushing for less than 90 yards per game. Miami is 7-1 ATS off a SU loss and 5-0 ATS as a road dog. TB's Arians is 1-6 ATS as a home favorite vs a non division foe and the Bucs are 0-9 ATS before a Thursday night game. Wouldn't put it past the Bucs to overlook the hapless Dolphins. Take the double digits. 

Rams/Seahawks 8:20: At first glance, Rams the call; after all, McVay's Rams have covered 4 of the last 5 in this series. But let's not forget Pete Carroll is the NFL Prime Time king, especially on Thursday Night with a 10-1 SU run including 9 straight. Moreover, Carroll is 12-2 ATS as a dog vs greater than .500 division opponent. Seahawks' defense is ugly on paper (last in total yards allowed) but game is not played on paper. Rams' defense seemed impenetrable after first three games but allowed Arizona to roll all over them - as I predicted Sunday. Rams 0-8 ATS on the road off double-digit SU division loss. Tonight, look for competitive game with the all dangerous home dog delivering.  

Raiders/Chargers 8:15: Both teams much improved from a year ago. Chargers finding ways to close out games successfully and the Raiders' defense is tremendously improved. Chargers coming off a huge division win at KC could find problems here, however. Raiders, 4-0 ATS run on MNF, possess the #1 offense in the NFL and will most likely have RB Josh Jacobs back for the first time in a few weeks. Chargers have injury concerns defensively with starting LB Kenneth Murray and RDE Justin Jones out. On the other hand, Raiders' much improved defense relatively healthy under DC Gus Bradley. And let's not forget Gus Bradley ran the Chargers' defense last year and saw a lot of QB Herbert in practices. This series has been relatively close in scoring with the dog covering 18 of the last 24 games. Road team has covered 4 of last 5. And Las Vegas covered 9 of the last 12 in Los Angeles. With the much improved defense of the Raiders and the offensive rhythm of Carr and company, we'll take the points. 

Ravens/Broncos 4:25: Heavy "under" trends on both sides. Broncos are 6-18 O/U vs teams with a winning road record. Ravens on a 4-11 O/U run vs AFC foes. Both head coaches defensive oriented with ball control a priority. That equates to running football, eating clock and great red zone defense in which each team has success at. Fangio is a tremendous defensive mind and will have a great defensive plan vs Lamar Jackson despite defensive injuries. Fangio always gets the best out of his guys. On the other hand, Ravens getting healthy defensively as they get back three key components off Covid19 list: LB Justin Houston, NT Brandon Williams, DT Madubuike. "Under" the call. 

Steelers/Packers 4:25: Never count the Steelers out under Mike Tomlin. Steelers a dangerous 16-1 ATS as a dog of less than 7 points vs an above .500 team; moreover, 14-2 ATS as a road dog vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Now that TJ Watt is back in the fray, look for QB Rodgers not to have the comfort in the pocket he did the last two games. And not sold on the Packers' defense which allows nearly 28 PPG. Consequently, we'll look for Big Ben to establish some offensive rhythm despite the loss of Claypool (hamstring). Still enough weaponry to do damage with Washington, Najee Harris, Smith-Schuster, TEs Freiermuth, Ebron. GB's Lafleur just 1-6 ATS off SU/ATS non-division win vs less than .500 foe. Steelers the call.

Cardinals/Rams 4:05: Rams have owned Arizona in the McVay era but Kingsbury could be catching LA at the right time to cover. Rams, of course, coming off big win at home vs TB. It was  a bruising battle while Arizona was on the road cruising by lightweight Jacksonville. Arizona is relatively healthy with a wealth of riches defensively and plenty of weaponry at QB Kyler Murray's disposal. Rams' defense has underachieved statistically in allowing total yards - more specifically pass yards - mid to bottom tier of NFL. Consequently, we'll look for the #2 offensive in the NFL (Arizona) to be able to trade points effectively today. Arizona does their best as a road dog at 9-3-2 ATS. We'll grab the points. 

Seahawks/49ers 4:05: Seahawks overdue to get back on the winning track; after all, QB Russell Wilson and HC Pete Carroll have not lost 3 straight in their professional career. Seattle sports a 32-15-4 ATS mark off a SU loss and 9-3 ATS as a road dog; moreover, 13-5-1 ATS vs SF. Most teams have their share of injuries but SF hit extremely hard in the defensive backfield which could factor heavy here. Seattle, which has been very productive in the first half of each game, must find ways of finishing and Carroll should figure that out this week. SF a money burner as a favorite at 5-21-1 ATS. We'll grab the Seahawks!

Jaguars/Bengals 8:20: Jaguars need to clean up a few things to be competitive and it should come here. Bengals coming off a healthy win over Pittsburgh and could easily overlook Jacksonville with GB on deck. Jacksonville still has some dangerous weaponry in Shenault, Marvin Jones and Chark. And Robinson is doing a decent job as a RB (5.2 YPC). QB Lawrence should have a bit more time to find his targets; after all, Cincinnati not a great pass rush team. On the other hand, look for Jacksonville to generate pressure on Joe Burrow. Steelers couldn't sack him and he picked the secondary apart. Jaguars have enough secondary talent to hold off Chase and company to stay in this game. Jaguars the call.  

Eagles/Cowboys 8:15: Both teams banged up a bit but Dallas' defense has areas of depth concern on defensive front and secondary. Eagles are running the rock well with Hurts and RB Sanders. And remember, Eagles no longer dependent on TE Zach Ertz (good to go) as only go-to receiver. Devonta Smith, Reagor and Watkins emerging trio. Sure, Eagles will miss DE Brandon Graham (Achilles) but do have defensive depth in their #6 defense (total yards). Cowboys' McCarthy 1-7 ATS as a favorite vs opponent off a non-division game. Cowboys 7-17 ATS in MNF. Eagles 13-6 ATS as a road dog on MNF and they're 6-2 ATS off an ATS loss. Back the Eagles tonight.

Bucs/Rams 4:25: These teams met last season in late November with the Rams getting the best of Tampa Bay in Florida 27-24. So far, both defenses underachieving ranking as bottom feeders against the pass; however, Los Angeles secondary a bit more stable and disciplined; moreover, they have the most dominant interior pass rusher in the game - Aaron Donald who immobile QBs have nightmares over. Brady, of course, a different animal and has most of the answers. However, he has one less vertical threat at his disposal in AB (out). Moreover, Brady doesn't have that run game  (31st in NFL at 67 YPG) to open up the pass game. This is the most formidable defense TB has faced this season. On the other side, QB Stafford a major upgrade over Goff (Detroit) and he's off to a great start. Stat of note: TB HC Arians 1-10 ATS as a .500 or greater team off a division game vs .500 or greater opponent. Rams the call. 

Jets/Broncos 4:05: Fangio has finally assembled a team that suits him: great defense, solid run game, efficient passer (Bridgewater). On the other hand, Urban Meyer in a rebuild and his team not entirely on board. Broncos 18-3 SU/17-3-1 ATS in their last 21 home openers versus non-division foes. Broncos the call.

Bears/Browns 1:00: Bears' defense is creating turnovers, solid vs the run. Cleveland's offense is fueled by the run game and their offensive line is a bit banged up. Sure, Beckham Jr. makes his return but the loss of Landry (IR) hurts a bit more. And the Cleveland defense is underachieving this year, especially vs the pass. We'll look for Justin Fields to get it done in his first NFL start. Browns struggle vs the NFC North at 1-12 SU/2-11 ATS including 0-7 ATS slide. Chicago sports an 8-0 SU/6-1-1 ATS mark vs the AFC North including 3-0 ATS vs Cleveland. Take the points here. 

Chargers/Chiefs 1:00: Both teams coming off losses - Chargers 17-20 to the Cowboys and Chiefs 35-36 to the Ravens. Chargers should get their explosive offense back on track vs the yielding KC defense which has allowed a staggering 469 YPG (last in NFL). Chargers' defense got a good word that game changing DE Joey Bosa was upgraded to Questionable today. KC has had trouble with the Chargers. LA 3-1-1 ATS in this series including an outright in the last regular season game of last season. Chiefs 1-7 ATS as a home favorite of 7 or more after scoring 35 or more points. Chargers a sweet 15-4-2 ATS as road dogs in division games including 9-1 ATS vs opponents not coming off a double-digit win. We'll roll with the Chargers.

Panthers/Texans 8:20: We'll lay the wood with the Panthers here; after all, they control the #1 defense in many categories across the board in the NFL. That does not bode well for Houston backup David Mills, who actually has a future as an NFL baller but not enough time to prep after starter - Taylor went down. Panthers' defense has sacked QBs 10 times! On the other hand, Houston has many holes to fill defensively and should be tough to stop Darnold and versatile RB McCaffrey. Panthers 7-0 ATS on the road and like where they're going. 

Lions/Packers 8:15: Lions a dangerous backdoor cover team as evidenced in Week 1 vs SF. Goff can clearly sling it. He's got a good supporting cast of skill personnel including TE Hockenson, RB Swift, WR Williamson. Green Bay defense did not look good vs New Orleans and that's trouble laying double digits. Offensively, Rogers and company will most likely get back in rhythm but not sold on them here blowing out Detroit. Detroit has covered 7 of the last 8 in this series, 8-3 ATS in September and 6-2 ATS on MNF. We'll grab the double digits. 

Vikings/Cardinals 4:05: Heavy support for Arizona here; however, Arizona has a brief history of underachieving under Kingsbury despite the immense talent. And the Cardinals are just 4-9 ATS as chalk. Minnesota came roaring back last week at Cincinnati only to lose in OT. RB Cook was upset with late fumble. Look for the Vikings to snap back here. They're 27-10-1 ATS after less than 90 yards rushing the previous week. And their 38-17 ATS off a SU loss. Zimmer is dangerous as a dog and we'll grab him and the Vikings.

Patriots/Jets 1:00: Patriots in a ornery mood after dropping opener to Miami. The number of defensive breakdowns didn't sit well with Belichick; consequently, he'll have it figured out vs rookie QB Zach Wilson. Belichick 21-6 vs rookie QBs in his tenure in New England. On the other hand, Mac Jones proved he belonged in the league vs a very good Miami defense. Jets were swept in this series last year. And Patriots in September are 10-2 ATS off a SU loss vs a foe w/ revenge. With the Patriots 5-2 ATS in Week 2, we'll lay the points. 

Broncos/Jaguars 1:00: Fangio has been building a formidable defense over his brief tenure and that was with key pieces missing. This year's unit is a lot more healthy and dangerous with Von Miller now healthy. And throw in Bradley Chubb (questionable), they're outright scary. And now that Bridgewater has settled in as the starter, the run game is cooking and less interceptions. Fangio works teams that are less than .500 off s SU loss as his 8-0 ATS mark indicates. Rebuilding Jaguars will have to wait for their rebuild. Broncos the call.

49ers/Eagles 1:00: Eagles, flying under the radar, came out with guns a blazin' last week at Atlanta. Devonta Smith showed he was the real deal with 6 catches for 71 yards and a TD. Hurts looked good in the well balanced offensive attack under Sirianni. Sure, SF put some points up too but against a suspect Lions' defense. Moreover, Lions came roaring back for the back door cover vs a SF defense that doesn't have the same bite it did under former DC now Jets' HC Robert Saleh. What's more, the defense has injuries to key personnel including C Verrett. Philly 7-2 ATS last 9 in this series at home. SF, not a good favorite at 9-25-1 ATS. Eagles the call.

NY/Washington 8:20: The concern for the Giants is not only the offensive line shuffling and that they rushed for a measly 60 yards vs the Broncos, but their defense allowed the Broncos to gash them for 165 yards. Washington, in good hands with Tyler Heinke, should utilize Antonio Gibson, Mckissic and Jaret Patterson to control clock and open up the play action game to McLaurin and Dyami Brown. Giants' offense has some great skill players in Golladay, Shepard and Slayton but fierce Washington front should be trouble for QB David Jones, who struggles in crunch time. Giants swept this series last season but Rivera is 5-1 ATS w/ revenge and 5-1 ATS vs division. We'll roll with Washington. 

NY/Washington 8:20: Giants couldn't unleash their run game last week (60 yards) and most likely won't this week with dynamic RB Barkley (questionable) on limited, if any, reps. Washington defense doesn't give up many points and held up well last week vs an explosive Chargers' offense after an opening drive TD. NY offensive line shuffling won't help vs arguably the best defensive front in the NFL. On the other hand, NY defense keeps them in games and doesn't allow explosive plays. And without Curtis Samuel, Washington's QB Heinicke has one less vertical threat in a conservative offense. Heavy "under" trends on both of these teams and we'll stay "under" despite the low set total. 

Analysis to follow...

Analysis to follow...