Jaguars/Texans 1:00: Hard to lay points with a pathetic Houston team. O'Brien dismissed but surely veteran coaching retread Romeo Crennel no upgrade. Texans run game last in the NFL so pressure on Watson to make plays. Jaguars not good defensively with a number of banged up guys, including corner D.J. Hayden. And they're struggling to generate a pass rush. Josh Allen's absence won't help if he can't go. However, there is light at the end of the tunnel. Jacksonville's QB Minshew II can sling it and the Texans' defense has been pathetic under new DC Weaver. Jacksonville 13-2 ATS as a dog off a SU loss vs an opponent off a SU loss of 8 or less. Throw in double revenge motive from last season's sweep and we'll take the points with Jacksonville.

Jaguars/Texans 1:00: Both of these defenses can't stop anybody. Jacksonville has given up 33, 31, 33 over their last 3 games. Houston has given up 31, 28, 33. And that's not counting September 10th when KC could have easily hung 50+ on them. Instead, ran out a lot of clock late with 34. The arms of Minshew II and Watson should go to work. This series is overdue for a high scoring game and it should come today. "Over" the call.

Bengals/Ravens 1:00: Bengals highly competitive this season thanks to Joe Burrow. He's the real deal. Burrow is distributing the ball well to his weapons including Higgins and Boyd, who are quickly becoming  go to guys. And A.J. Green has yet to be unleashed. Lots of air yardage today vs a Baltimore pass defense that has weakened substantially. And RB Joe Mixon (shin) should be good to go to add to more yardage on the ground and through the air. Ravens' offense not at the level it was a year ago. Ravens 24th in total yardage as defenses figuring out Lamar and company. Moreover, All Pro Geno Atkins back to wreak havoc between tackles. Ravens 0-8 ATS as division home favorites of more than 8 points. And they're 0-3 ATS at home vs the Bengals. Double revenge motive for Cincy and we'll look for them to stay competitive. 

Tampa Bay/Chicago 8:20: Concerned with the TB secondary which was torched last week by QB Herbert and the Chargers. We'll look for TB DC Bowles to address that this week; after all, Foles can air it out. Allen Robinson is a big time receiver; however, Bears' normally strong run game sputtered last week against a good Indy defense and TB's run stop unit allows only 64 YPG (#2 in NFL). Offensively, Brady has gotten in rhythm over the last 3 weeks and that's trouble for opposing defenses. Sure, Bears have a very good red zone defense (#1 NFL) but TB has an explosive vertical game developing. With TE Howard (Achilles) and Godwin out, Gronk should get added time. Brady does have a thinning receiving corps with Miller and Evans on the mend; however, no one, with the exception of Aaron Rodgers, gets more out of young receivers in developmental stage than Brady. Technically, Bears 4-14 ATS vs non division foes when allowing 14+ points under Nagy. And Bears have not been a solid Thursday Night play at 4-11 ATS. TB the call. 

Falcons/Packers 8:50: Trying to build a case to take the points with a desperate Falcons team but can't. Falcons have collapsed late in 2 of their 3 losses and tonight go into Lambeau Field with 5 key defensive players banged up. That's not a good sign against the leading scoring team in the NFL. GB QB Rodgers is off to a sizzling start and he has historically torched Atlanta to the tune of 2165 yards passing with 17 TDs/2 INTs. Packers do, however, have some injury concerns. Leading receiver Lazard (core) is out but star Davonte Adams (hamstring) should be back; after all, he practiced all week. Defensively, DT Kenny Clark (groin) could bolster the front too if cleared. Nevertheless, Packers should have enough depth to hold off the explosive offense of Atlanta with Ridley and Jones probable but nursing injuries. Technically, Falcons have a poor history in October at 2-11 ATS. They're 7-23 ATS after allowing 250+ passing yards. And they're 0-6 ATS on MNF off back to back losses. Quinn is 1-8 ATS as a dog off SU favorite loss. Packers the call. 

Falcons/Packers 8:50: Falcons' defense, last in the league in scoring, has given up 38, 40, 30 points for the first 3 weeks, respectively. And tonight, the Falcons' defense has 5 significant players banged up; consequently, red hot QB Rodgers and the #1 scoring offense should light up the secondary. Having All-Pro Davonte Adams (questionable) back in the fray should help tremendously to offset loss of Lazard (out). And RB Aaron Jones a big part of the GB machine. As for Atlanta, Julio Jones (hamstring) should play. Matt Ryan does manage, like Rodgers, to connect with the next man up. Ryan does have Gurley, Russell Gage, TE Hayden Hurst, and Ridley (ankle) should be good to go too. GB defense has given up its share of points this season (34, 21, 30) and like Atlanta, 3-0 O/U on the season. Heavy "over" trends for each and there still is value with the "over".

Colts/Bears 4:25: Bears finding ways to win games. Nick Foles secured the starting nod by rallying them late last week. However, he won't have RB Cohen (I-R w/ knee) as a big check-down receiver. Foles will face the #1 defense in the NFL. Colts have faced somewhat of a light schedule like Chicago but do look in rhythm on both sides of the ball. And veteran QB Rivers can still sling it, especially if given the time. With edge rusher Mack (knee) hobbling, Rivers should continue his hot run. And keep in mind that Colts' HC Reich was QB coach for Foles in Philadelphia. He knows his tendencies. Reich is 6-1 ATS as a .500 or greater team on the road vs a .500 or greater team. Colts the call. 

Seahawks/Dolphins 1:00: Been riding the Seahawks for a while but going to throw a rare fade on them here. Seahawks banged up defensively while calling up practice squad players for a decimated group including #1 draft choice LB Brooks (knee) who was starting to see more action. And the Seahawks' defense is dead last in yards allowed. Offensively, RB Carson (knee) is out putting pressure on Russell Wilson to cook even more than he already has. That may be a bit too much to ask. Dolphins are banged up a bit too but did have a few days extra rest coming off a big Thursday night win. And Fitzpatrick can still light it up. Seahawks just 2-9 ATS off back-to-back wins vs less than .500 non division foe. A bit much to ask for the banged up Seahawks to travel cross country for an early start. Dolphins 7-3 ATS at home against winning road teams. Dolphins the call. 

Baltimore/Washington 1:00: The Ravens have done well against most teams not named KC. Ravens laid a big egg on both sides of the ball Monday. We'll look for them to bounce back strong. Washington 3-7 ATS as a home dog. Washington won't have DE Chase Young (groin) to help chase down Lamar Jackson. Baltimore the call.

Vikings/Texans 1:00: Can't trust Houston laying points. Both teams have taken on a pretty tough schedule but I believe Vikings are in a better position to come out of their 0-3 hole. Texans having trouble running the football (31st in the NFL) and can't stop the run defensively (last in the NFL allowing 188.3 YPG). QB Watson forced to go to the air repeatedly and constantly under duress because of missed assignments blocking and no deep threat (Hopkins off to Arizona); as a matter of fact, Watson's longest pass completion this season is 38 yards. Zimmer is a good coach and should have his secondary improve from allowing explosive plays against a non-explosive team. Vikings, on the other hand, have weapons Thielen, Delvin Cook and emerging star rookie Jefferson. Not fond of Houston's DC Weaver who is not getting it done. Vikings 19-4-1 ATS in non-division games when coming off a loss under Zimmer; moreover, 9-2 ATS as a less than .500 dog, and 5-1 ATS after allowing 30+ points. Thrown in they're 4-0 ATS in last 4 vs Houston and we'll jump on Minnesota at this price. 

Broncos/Jets 8:20: Both of these teams' offenses are ranked in the bottom of the NFL. Jets' QB Darnell does get back hit favorite target Crowder (hamstring) but his underachieving offensive line isn't giving him much help. Run game, like Denver's, is near the bottom of the league. Broncos' defense has many injuries along the front but picking up veteran DT Timmy Jernigan will help. On the other hand, Jets' underachieving defense should awaken under veteran DC Gregg Williams. Broncos are starting Boise State alum free agent Brett Rypien in place of ineffective Driskell. Broncos, despite their injuries, are well disciplined under head coach Fangio, who was one of the best DCs in the game. Broncos and Jets are averaging a paltry 15 and 12.3 PPG, respectively. Heavy "Under" trends of a combined 7-23-1 O/U after they allow 350+ yards. We'll look for defensive pride to take fold tonight.

Chiefs/Ravens 8:15: Two heavyweights in the AFC but right now, Ravens more in rhythm, especially on the defensive end. Ravens' DC Martindale getting good work out of rookie linebackers Patrick Queen and Malik Harrison to add to an already deep bunch. Calais Campbell headlines a strong defensive line, and Ravens' corners Humphrey and Peters give Martindale flexibility on blitzes. Sure, Mahomes is great, and his skill supporting cast is second to none, especially with rookie Edwards-Helaire added to the mix. However, Chargers did a decent job holding the Chiefs in check last week and Baltimore has a deeper and even more skilled cast of players. Where KC is weak is defensively. They had some issues last season in the first half of the season and DC Spagnuolo has to shuffle his secondary around because of injuries; moreover, DE Okafor is out. KC is 28th in the NFL in yards allowed. That's over 100 more than the Ravens' defense gives up per game. Chargers ran all over them and Baltimore's run game (170 YPG) is rolling with QB Jackson, Ingram and rookie J.K. Dobbins. They open up the play action/RPO game really well. Ravens 6-2 ATS on MNF and although Harbaugh not a great home favorite, he's 9-2 ATS as a home favorite vs a .500 or greater non division opponent off a division game. Ravens hungry to avenge the last two losses to KC and look for them to get the best of KC tonight. 

Packers/Saints 8:20: Saints not a great home favorite at 4-9 ATS. And no crowd in the Superdome further limits New Orleans' advantage. Give Aaron Rodgers the ability to verbally audible and he'll continue to pick apart defenses. I do realize that Davonte Adams (hamstring) is on the mend and will be a game time decision; however, Rodgers is slinging it around to a variety of weapons and RB Aaron Jones has picked up the slack before in Adams' absence. He can do it again. Defensively, Saints looked sluggish against the run Monday, and face another solid offensive line that's actually healthy. Defensively, DT Kenny Clark will get some reps which add to the defensive line depth for GB. They'll give QB Brees trouble. Brees misses his top WR Thomas badly as evidenced Monday. Saints still haven't gotten value out of the TE Trautman whom they traded up for. He caught 1 pass for 15 yards. Packers 7-0 ATS off SU division home win. Lafleur is 5-1 ATS off a division game vs opponent off non-division game. Packers the call. 

Lions/Cardinals 4:25: Lions 0-2, injury riddled yet should have WR Kenny Golladay (hamstring) back for QB Stafford. That gives the Cardinals a bit less of a spread to cover for the line moved down a few points on the announcement. Cardinals' addition of Hopkins (219 receiving yards) has created a matchup nightmare for teams and it will get more difficult for the struggling Lions' defense. Kyler Murray is finding his groove and he is nearly unstoppable when the Cardinals are moving the ball. Expect more offensive fireworks today. Defensively, Arizona getting better every week with lots of young talent blending in with seasoned playmakers Patterson and Baker. LB De'Vondre Campbell (free agent rookie) has already paid dividends and top pick Isaiah Simmons (Clemson) can only get better. Cardinals 7-1 ATS in this series. Cardinals the call. 

Raiders/Patriots 1:00: Raiders coming off a huge MNF win but don't like what I see from the Raiders history off wins. They're 1-15 ATS on the road off back-to-back SU wins. They went nearly the entire week with multiple bodies not practicing including key cog RB Josh Jacobs & TE Waller. Their offensive line is banged up and defensively, they still only have one sack registered. NE hungry to get back in win column after narrow defeat last week to Seattle. NE is 12-2 ATS following a SU in September. Newton is back to his old MVP self and getting pretty good support. Time for Belichick's defense to wake up. We should see it here. Patriots the call. 

Texans/Steelers 1:00: Pittsburgh coming off two struggling opponents face a Texans' team which played two of the best in AFC. Houston needs to shore up its offensive line for Watson has been sacked 8X already. NFL offensive linemen take pride in what they do and should show up today in a pissed off mood vs the aggressive Steelers' front. Houston defense has at times shown some grit but needs consistent aggressive play. Roethlisberger is gradually getting into a groove and surely the Texans don't want him comfortable in the pocket. Texans should snap out of their funk here. They're 8-1 ATS off a double-digit loss at home. Pittsburgh not the greatest home favorite at 2-6 ATS; moreover, just 2-11 ATS as a conference favorite of less than 6 points. And keep in mind that teams which are 0-2 SU to start the season deliver at a 67% clip in Game 3. On the flip side, 2-0 SU teams deliver at just a 45% clip. We'll grab the points here with Houston.

Dolphins/Jaguars 8:20: Jaguars a bit further along in their progress this season. They had a good draft and even picked up a steal with free agent RB James Robinson from Illinois State. He ran well against Indy and grinded out 102 rush yards vs a pretty good Titans' defense last week. He surely helps out budding star QB Minshew. Minshew can sling it and he's got an exciting rookie WR Laviska Shenault Jr. to tear up an injury riddled Miami secondary. And with Shaq Lawson (hip) questionable, a bit more time in the pocket for quick release Minshew is always a good thing. Miami defense 30th in total yards and that doesn't bode well for the productive offense of Jacksonville. On the other hand, Dolphins QB Fitzpatrick is no slouch. He's dangerous when given time and in sync reunited with his old OC Chan Gailey. Jacksonville has an aggressive defense and I like edge rusher Josh Allen who can wreak havoc. Not crazy about Jacksonville as a home favorite  (1-4 ATS) but I do like their September record of 5-0 ATS. With Miami at 0-4 ATS on Thursday nights, they're not quite ready for prime time yet and we'll tread lightly with Jacksonville. 

Saints/Raiders 8:15: With a healthy Michael Thomas, Saints would be a TD and a hook favorite. Without Thomas (out), value still with the Saints. Huge disparity between defenses. Raiders' under DC Guenther have generated virtually no QB pressure including last week (1 sack 4 QB pressures) vs a middle of the pack offense. QB Brees does have some quality options including Emmanuel Sanders and Kamara and Brees has a pretty healthy offensive line. On the other hand, Raiders' are down to their third string RT after Trent Brown (calf) and his backup Sam Young (groin) went down last week. The Raiders can get away with it vs Carolina, but unlikely New Orleans with Cameron Jordan and company. Carr should get hit routinely. And remember, Saints' run stop unit has not allowed a 100+ rusher in 44 straight games. Saints 4-0 ATS as a road favorite and covered 5 of their last 7 in September. And let's not forget that the Raiders are a pathetic 1-7 ATS at home all time vs the NFC South. No crowd noise gives road team a slight edge here and we'll ride the Saints. 

 Patriots/Seahawks 8:20: Disappointed in Seattle's secondary which gave up 434 yards; however, Pete Carroll is a great defensive mind and should straighten things out this week; after all, he's got a great addition to it with Jamal Adams (acquired from Jets) who was stellar last week in multiple coverages and blitzes. Patriots' Cam Newton doesn't have the weaponry Atlanta does. Edelman (knee) and Harry (shoulder) had limited practice this week. Look for the Seahawks to hunker down in assignment football to stop Cam and the read option, which was so effective last week vs Miami. Newton just 2-4 SU vs Seattle. New England's offensive line leaves much to be desired too. Patriots just 1-6 ATS off SU/ATS win vs opponent off double digit SU win. Seattle the call. 

Ravens/Texans 4:25: Texans having a rough start to the season and it won't get easier today. Houston's defense got worked against he explosive Chiefs' offense that could have hung 50 on them. Baltimore's potent offense should befuddle new DC Weaver. With the addition of J.K. Dobbins (draft) in the mix, Ravens should be unstoppable. Defensively, Ravens gave up yardage last week to a potent run game of the Browns and took away the pass; moreover, limited the end zone scoring (6 points). Ravens thumped the Texans 41-7 last year. Ravens have been getting out of the gate fast the last couple of years and 4-0 ATS as a road favorite. Ravens the call.  

Chiefs/Chargers 4:25: Chiefs now 11-1 ATS in September and should deliver again. Chiefs banged up defensively missing DT Saunders, DE Okafor, CB Ward and CB Breeland (suspended); however, playmakers DE Chris Jones, DE Frank Clark, run stopper Nnadi and secondary SS "Honey Badger" Mathieu have enough quality personnel run by Spagnuolo to handle a lethargic Chargers' offense. I don't see Tyrod Taylor and company able to trade points with the explosive KC offense. Big time KC QB Mahomes has a wealth of offensive weaponry with TE Kelce, Watkins, Tyreek Hill and, a new explosive versatile RB in Edwards-Helaire who makes life difficult for linebackers on swing and circle routes. Chiefs have owned Chargers in LA at 7-0 ATS and should louse up the Chargers home opener in their new stadium. Lynn just 1-5-1 ATS off a SU win. 

Rams/Eagles 1:00: Eagles have owned this series but that should change today. Rams looked like the 2018 version last Sunday at home vs Dallas. Their offensive line is back to moving defensive linemen downhill while downhill RB Brown is gobbling up grass and yardage. Speedy draft pick Cam Akers is a good changeup. And when the Rams run game is going, QB Goff is at his best. We'll look for more of the same today. Eagles' banged up on both sides of the line. Brooks and Dillard are on the IR while Lane Johnson (ankle) should return. And T Jason Peters still shaking off the rust after missing 10 preseason days (contract); consequently, Aaron Donald will be breathing down Carson Wentz neck most of the day. On the other side of the ball, Eagles' defensive line has a rash of injuries stemming from last week's loss vs Washington. McVay 9-2 ATS off a SU/ATS win vs an opponent off an away game. Rams and the points the call. 

Bengals/Browns 8:20: Bengals were competitive vs Los Angeles last week. Burrow was sharp on the Bengals' final drive going 8 of 11 including clocking the the final throw to put his team in position to tie game. Bengals' K Bulloch (calf) is OK but the Bengals grabbed K Seibert off the waiver wire as a back up after Browns released him Monday. Bengals do have some problems defensively with their line not healthy and Browns should move the ball on them; however, Browns got beat up vs physical Ravens' and won't be at their most physical tonight. Bengals' have a good offensive skill set and should be able to pick apart a beat up secondary. We'll look for Cincinnati to hang around here. Bengals are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 in this series and 5-1 ATS the last 6 at Cleveland. Bengals the call. 

Bengals/Browns 8:20: Browns should be able to move the football against a Bengals' defense that's thin on the defensive front; after all, Cincinnati won't have ultra dominant DT Geno Atkins roaming the Browns' backfield; moreover, his backup - Mike Daniels is out too. Mayfield has a plethora of weapons to go to including a strong run game with Chubb and Hunt. Bengals were run on vs the LAC on Sunday. We'll look for the play action game to open up as well. As for the Bengals, Joe Burrow showed on Sunday that he belongs in the NFL. And the Browns' depleted secondary (no Greedy Williams or Kevin Johnson) can be worked. Burrow has good skill weaponry with A.J. Green, Ross, Boyd and even explosive rookie Tee Higgins should get a chance to make plays. Browns' secondary not as good as the Chargers. And look for RB Mixon to be the workhorse to free up the pass game. Bengals will need to slow the charges of Browns' edge rushers Garrett and Vernon. This series went 4-0-1 O/U last 4 matchups. And the Browns are 4-0 O/U in their last 4 after scoring less than 15 points. "Over" it is.

Steelers/Giants 7:15: Not sold on the Giants after coming off a 4 win season. They cleaned house and added Belichick disciple Joe Judge. Other than Vrabel at Tennessee, and mediocre Bill O'Brien, former Belichick guys have not fared well as head coaches - Crennel, Josh McDaniels, Patricia and Flores are all struggling. And talking about mediocrity, former head coach Jason Garrett will be the offensive coordinator- surely not keeping DCs' up at night. Giants did have a pretty good draft and will put to test #1 pick LT Andrew Thomas. And RB Barkley is one of the three top backs in the NFL despite playing behind a poor offensive line. QB Daniel Jones was sacked 38 X and registered 18 fumbles last year. He's got a few weapons in Shephard and Slayton with Tate likely out with hamstring. We'll look for the hungry Steeler defense to neutralize the Giants' offense. Steelers' defense pretty healthy and added more depth with LB Blake Martinez (from GB) and Corner Logan Ryan (from Tennessee). S Minkah Fitzpatrick was the missing piece that elevated the Steelers' defense last year. We'll look for the Steelers' defense to deliver tonight. And offensively, QB Roethlisberger is back and TE Eric Ebron was a big pick up in the off season to add to a pretty good receiving corps. And RB McFarland was a good draft out of Maryland. He's added to a deep backfield behind a physical Steelers' O line. They'll need to win the battle vs the strength of the Giants' defense - defensive line. We'll bet on the Steelers which are 5-2 ATS on MNF.

Tampa Bay/New Orleans 4:25: New Orleans should continue to be successful this season but don't like them in Game 1. Saints are 1-5 SU / 0-6 ATS in season openers under Payton. And TB is loaded on both sides of the ball including future Hall of Famers QB Brady and TE Gronk. Moreover, the offensive line was bolstered in the off season and the recent addition of RB Fournette gives TB a ridiculous load of skill talent. Defensively, TB is in good shape as well with a strong defensive front, good linebacker corps and expected improved secondary. Arians a seasoned veteran coach can win on the road now that he's got his QB.

Cardinals/49ers 4:25: Arizona gave San Francisco a tough time last year in this division series. Kyler Murray completed 72% with a 4 TD and 0 INT. With the addition of DeAndre Hopkins to an already good receiving corps, SF's secondary will have its work cut out for them; moreover, Arizona bolstered their line with draft pick Josh Jones who should immediately help. And defensively, Cardinals got immediate help in the secondary for CB Patterson with Dre Kirkpatrick. And I'm sure DC Vance Joseph is loving versatile LB Isaiah Simmons acquired in the draft. He can cover lots of field and play the run. Defense should be an upgrade for Arizona. SF will still be a force in the NFC West; however, Super Bowl losers just 6-15 ATS in Game 1. We'll put our money on Kingsbury who is 15-7-1 ATS as a dog of 7 or more in college and pro; moreover, 6-0 ATS w/ revenge in the NFL. 

Seahawks/Falcons 1:00: Seahawks needed to fill void left with Clowney and they did by bringing back LB Bruce Irvin and DE Mayowa. Moreover, Pete Carroll bolstered his secondary with S Jamal Adams and C Dunbar to add to Diggs and Griffin. And top draft pick Jordyn Brooks should pay immediate dividends as a run stopper and can cover ground in the secondary. Atlanta, meanwhile, didn't really address the glaring weakness on their offensive line which failed to protect Matt Ryan last year. On the other hand, Falcons' secondary is left thin with injuries and suspensions; consequently, bad news with one of the best QBs in the NFL Russell Wilson leading the show with a seasoned supporting cast of skill weapons and linemen. Seattle the call.

Dolphins/Patriots 1:00: Not going to put a whole lot of stock into Miami's off season upgrades. Belichick still has a pretty good nucleus to build around. And a healthy Cam Newton should flourish in OC Josh McDaniels' system. The concern is the Patriots' offensive line with their longtime coach Dante Scarnecchia retiring. From what I hear, Patriots penciling a respectable fit and progress is shaping up with their off-season acquisitions. Defensively, however, Patriots should not miss a beat despite the losses of LB Hightower and Chung. CBs Gilmore and McCourty lead a very good secondary under Belichick. Dolphins will go with cagey veteran QB Fitzpatrick who does have a pretty good supporting cast. Running game was horrible last year but will improve with revamped offensive line and RBs Jordan Howard and speedy Matt Breida. But it will take time for Miami to gell. Remember, they're 1-7 ATS in New England and Belichick is still fuming about losing to his former assistant Flores in the last game of the season in 2019. Patriots the call. 

Texans/Chiefs 8:20: Texans look to be in pretty good shape despite the trade of one of the best receivers in the NFL in Hopkins. Versatile QB Watson now has Randall Cobb and Brandin Cooks, two really good acquisitions. And, of course, a healthy vertical threat in Will Fuller adds plenty to the mix; at the same time, consistency in the Texans' offensive line will help with all five offensive linemen from a year ago returning, including important cog Tytus Howard who only played in eight games last year. Every year the Texans' line has improved for Watson; moreover, now that RB acquisition David Johnson (trade from Arizona for Hopkins) is healthy, a run game will certainly take pressure off Watson. If you recall, Johnson was dangerous out of the backfield as a receiver at Arizona too. KC defense has its share of holes and they weren't consistently good vs the run last year. Sure, offensively, KC is loaded and will put up points. Texans new DC Weaver does have a better secondary to operate with this year and surely former KC cast offs including hybrid defensive back Eric Murray will help. Texans stewed all winter, spring and summer over giving up 24 point lead in last year's playoffs. We'll look for a competitive revenge game here with very little crowd noise at what is usually one of the loudest venues in the NFL.  Road team 9-3 ATS in this series and we'll grab the Texans.

49ers/Chiefs 6:30: 49ers game plan is pretty basic: Offensively - do what they do best and pound the rock behind FB Kyle Juszczyk with frequent play action. Yes, the stage is not too big for QB Jimmy G, and Kittle should have a big game. 49ers rushed for 471 yards in the post-season and KC's stop unit is vulnerable - ranked 26th in the league. With Mostert and company running the rock and eating clock, Mahomes can stay off the field. When he does get on the field, the 49ers do have the #1 pass defense in the NFL allowing just 169 YPG. Simple enough game plan that other teams have employed, but SF has the personnel and the coaching to stay with it and execute throughout 4 quarters. SF the call. 

Packers/49ers 6:40: Yes, I know the sequence. 49ers demolished Green Bay in November 37-8 and Aaron Rodgers and company are out to avenge the defeat. Only problem is the Packers' offensive line may not be able to hold up again against the league's most brutal front four. Bosa, Ford, Armstead, Buckner now all healthy and with line stunts, don't need much help with blitzes. Rodgers was brutalized in that game and I don't see a significant difference here. And teams that won 20+ point blowouts in regular season meeting the same team in playoffs have gone 22-14 in the second game. Sure, SF hasn't been a good TD favorite but they're the better team across the board and we'll lay it here. 

Titans/Chiefs 3:05: Chiefs really concerned about Titans and they should. Reid is a money burning 1-8 SU vs Tennessee! And Tennessee won at KC earlier in the season 35-32. Today, I like the formula of Tennessee, which is the January Playoff way: run the football and work off play action while playing solid defense and creating turnovers. Tennessee runs the football better than any team right now. Henry has gutted two good defenses with 182 (NE) and 195 (Balt) yards. And KC's defense is vulnerable (26th vs run). Henry only gets better as the game wears on and KC does not have the defensive depth (Chris Jones still out) to stop him. Moreover, one of the reasons Henry will continue to be successful is QB Tannehill. His play action to his underrated enormously athletic receiving corps has been tearing up secondaries and KC is won't have an easy time. On the other hand, I do appreciate the KC offensive arsenal which is loaded; however, Vrabel has his boys creating turnovers and limiting explosive plays. Houston made the mistake of abandoning the run game too early and inappropriate special teams miscues after jumping out to 24-0. Tennessee more disciplined and better coached. Tennessee the call. 

Seahawks/Packers 6:40: Last week, Seattle went in to Philly with three offensive line starters injured, and deep in to their depth chart in TE and RB yet still managed to come out with a win. Much of the credit to Pete Carroll, a highly underrated HC. Today, him and his great QB Wilson will find a way to put points on the board. Fortunately, Metcalf has stepped up his game to compliment Lockett as a deep threat. Would love to see the "Beast Mode" amped up but that may be a stretch; however, he still is dangerous around the goal line. And Homer is doing a pretty good job. Sure, GB's QB Rodgers is always a threat and RB Aaron Jones dangerous running and receiving. Seattle's defense not what it used to be but Clowney (probable) and the addition of S Diggs have helped tremendously in these games. We'll look for Pete Carroll to find a way once again. 

Texans/Chiefs 3:05: Hard to lay double-digits with a KC defense that gives up lots of ground. Houston has a run game, as exhibited in the first matchup Oct. 13th, when they outrushed and outthrew the Chiefs at Arrowhead. The moment isn't too big for QB Watson for he shined again last week vs a very good Buffalo defense. And now that Fuller should be good to go to compliment Hopkins, Houston has a fighting chance here. Moreover, KC's top pass rusher Chris Jones (calf) is still not at his best. On the other hand, the Texans' defense does need work and not a fan of DC Crennel; however, Mercilus and Watt looked good last week and we'll look for them to follow up strong here. Reid, of course is awesome, off bye weeks and KC is well rested; however, interesting to note that Reid is 0-8 ATS at home off a division game w/ revenge. We'll take the points. 

Analysis to follow...

Analysis to follow...

Seattle/Philadelphia 4:40: Going to ride the road team here again in this round. Seattle, which already beat Philadelphia in Philly on November 24th, did their best work on the road this season. I'm not a fan of their defense but they have playmakers and control a +9 turnover margin. On the other hand, the Eagles, which control a minus 3 turnover margin, is depleted in weaponry with Sanders, Agholor now out. And T Lane Johnson is struggling with an injured ankle. Seattle, which has a host of injuries too, should have DE Clowney back to wreak havoc on Wentz. And QB Russell Wilson is 4-0 SU vs Philadelphia in his career. He is limited in weaponry as well but is a big time playmaker with Lockett, Metcalf and TE Hollister at his disposal. And few talk about this but keep in mind that Pete Carroll has never lost 3 games in a row as a coach. And he's been coaching a long time. Seattle the call. 

Vikings/Saints 1:05: Everybody and their brother on Saints today. I know, the revenge from the 2018 Minneapolis Miracle, and New Orleans is on a blistering 3-0 SU/ATS run with an offense that looked unstoppable with Brees throwing 15 TDs/0 picks in the month of December. However, Minnesota has played New Orleans tough under HC Zimmer. Zimmer's defense held Brees in check the last 3 meetings in which the New Orleans QB was held to under 300 yards per game in each with a combined 7 TDs/3 INTs. Sure, Michael Thomas is the most dangerous target and surely Minnesota will keep him heavily weighted in their scheme. Kamara's numbers are down this year for he doesn't have Mark Ingram around to take the pressure off. Also, Minnesota has gotten healthy on both sides of the ball and not short on defensive playmakers as LB Kendricks is back to join forces with Harris, Hunter and S Harrison Smith. Offensively, Thielen (hamstring) is finally reaching stride after his lingering hammy issue. And Dalvin Cook, arguably one of the top backs in the NFL, gives life to the play action pass game for Cousins - who is at his best when Cook is behind him. Saints just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home favorite roles and this one is a little pricey. Like the road team in the Wild Card round and it applies here. Take the points. 

Titans/Patriots 8:15: Despite the rumblings of Patriots' demise, they're hosting a playoff game in January and that's bad news for visitors. Patriots 6-1 ATS in January and 6-2 ATS as a playoff home favorite. Sure, the Titans have dangerous offensive weaponry in A.J. Brown, Jannu Davis, RB Henry and QB Tannehill who leads the league in passer rating. And on paper, it doesn't look good for New England as Brady is having one of his worst years ever, limited weaponry, and a defense that got torched by Miami in the finale; however, as we know, this game isn't played on paper and great teams aren't always great, they're just great when they have to be. Patriots 22-6 ATS after allowing 250+ through the air. Yes, they'll make the adjustments and deliver. Titans a shaky 1-17 ATS off a double digit SU win vs conference opponent and just 1-4 ATS in Foxborough. 

Bills/Texans 4:35: Buffalo has played well on the road all season with 6 road wins and history dictates that means a lot come playoff time. The Bills can run the football now that they've found their featured back in Singletary (5.1 YPC). That, of course, opens up the play action for QB Josh Allen. He's got some good weapons including vertical threat John Brown and possession guy Cole Beasley. In addition, defense is where Buffalo has been consistently strong unlike Houston which occasionally shuts down a team. Sure, Watson is really good and he's got Will Fuller (groin) back to add to a dangerous arsenal with Hopkins; however, for the record, Watson struggled last time he faced Buffalo (sacked 7X with 2 INT's and fumble). Always fearful of Texans laying points. We'll back the road team here. 

Pittsburgh/Baltimore 4:25: Steelers still in the playoff hunt and Baltimore secured the #1 seed. Ravens decided to rest many starters including their inevitable MVP QB Lamar Jackson. And remember, their top RB Ingram, who significantly boosts the run game, is out (calf). Now, backup QB RG III, who had that one good year in Washington as a rookie, takes over at the helm. He's seen limited action in garbage time for Jackson and did not fare well. The zone read game is clearly not going to scare any defense let alone Pittsburgh's - loaded with former #1 draft choices. Pittsburgh the call. 

Redskins/Cowboys 4:25: Cowboys lost control of division with loss at Philadelphia last week. Amazingly, they're still in the race and can win the NFC East with a win here and an Eagles loss. Cowboys usually beat up weak teams as their 5-1 ATS mark vs teams under .500 indicates. Redskins will be with QB Haskins (hamstring) and talented rookie WR McLaurin. Keenum a good backup but got to believe the Cowboys' defense can step up their game. Offensively, Cowboys' RB Elliot should have a big game vs the Redskins 29th run stop unit. Bottom line, Washington is looking forward to the #2 pick in the draft (with a loss) while the Cowboys desperately clinging on to their playoff lives. Cowboys should move to 15-3 ATS the NFC East. 

Browns/Bengals 1:00: Browns really started to struggle defensively when they lost DE Myles Garrett for the season. Their pass rush never was the same and today, I don't see them shaking QB Dalton. Bengals' are 4-1 O/U following scoring 35+; moreover, they're 5-1 O/U after allowing 350+ yards. Browns will lean on RB Chubb to continue eclipse the 1500 yard rushing mark and open up the pass game for Mayfield. He should do fine even without OBJ (injured). This series is 6-2 O/U in Cincinnati. Cincinnati has secured the #1 pick in the draft regardless of the outcome. We'll look for a higher scoring affair. 

Chargers/Chiefs 1:00: What could be Philip Rivers final game for the Chargers, I project him going out strong. He's put some big numbers up vs KC (353 yards on 11/18) but has thrown lots of interceptions (20 in 11 games vs KC). He and his mates do seem to play better on the road, especially RB Ekeler with 8 straight road TDs! KC doesn't have much to play for here and an early lead by the Patriots (vs Miami) could have HC Reid resting starters late in this one; after all, KC is locked in the #3 seed with a win and a Patriots win. With a KC loss and a Texans win, KC would fall to the #4 spot. Nevertheless, a bye is pretty much out of the question for the Patriots most likely won't lose to Miami in Foxborough, especially this late in December. KC's run defense not that great; after all, they've allowed six runner to crack the 100 yard mark this season and give up an average of 130 YPG. We'll look for Melvin Gordon to work on his yardage incentive$ as the season draws to a close. And still like the Chargers' pass defense that can be stingy. With Rivers at 14-4-2 ATS as a division road dog, take the points with the vengeful Chargers.

Packers/Vikings 8:15: Plenty to fight for in this matchup but we'll grab the points with the road team. GB is looking to capture the NFC North and looking to sweep their arch-rival; as a matter of fact, in the September 15th matchup, won by GB 21-15, the Packers were out-totaled in yardage as Devin Cook ran roughshod over them for 154 yards on 20 carries including a 75 yard TD burst. Tonight, one of the most explosive backs in the league - Cook - will not play due to injury. And his backup is out as well which leaves little used Mike Boone. Cousins has been awesome since the loss to GB mostly in part with the play action on account of the effectiveness of Cook who also was significant as a receiver. GB, on the other hand, has RB Aaron Jones and WR Davante Adams healthy and doing damage. We'll look for QB Aaron Rodgers to step up his prime time game and deliver. Minnesota only 1-7 ATS as a favorite of less than 6 off a SU non-conference win; moreover, Cousins has yet to deliver on MNF (0-8 SU). GB the call. 

Cowboys/Eagles 4:25: Battle of mediocrity in the NFC East ensues today. We'll look for the Eagles to cross the threshold on to control of the division. Cowboys, blew out the Eagles October 20th as Elliot and Cooper had big numbers. Sure, they've had the Eagles number lately but don't count the Eagles out and do not underestimate Dallas HC Garrett's mediocrity. Dallas is coming off a blowout over Los Angeles. They did that as a rare dog but repeatedly underachieve as a favorite. They're due for a fall here. Prescott operating with a sprained throwing shoulder and Eagles' defense, which plays the run well, should step up their defensive game. Offensively, Wentz starting to play better and does have TE Ertz and RB Sanders to go to. Eagles hit with injuries so will need their young talent to step up their game. We'll look for them to be ready for the challenge. Eagles 10-2 ATS in December off division vs a division opponent off a double-digit SU win, 7-1 ATS off the Redskins. Eagles the call. 

Cardinals/Seahawks 4:25: Been riding the Seahawks for the past few years but will fade them in this spot. Seahawks usually make things too interesting winning by close margins as a heavy favorite. Seattle, currently the #1 seed in the NFC, do have SF on deck and stacked with key injuries. Seahawks' defense has not been good under Norton Jr. and face a pretty good Arizona offense. Kyler Murray is having a pretty good year and has some weaponry including future HOF WR Fitzgerald. Moreover, RB Drake was a good pickup from Miami. He's done well in his six games with Arizona. Sure, Arizona defense gives up points but do have sack specialist Chandler Jones and S Budda Baker give big play ability to them. And remember, Seattle depth is thin on both sides of the ball. Defensively, still without Clowney (core), S Diggs (ankle) , top run stopper Woods (suspended), and LB Wagner on the mend. Arizona is a sweet 5-1-1 ATS as a road dog and has covered 4 straight in Seattle. Arizona the call. 

Raiders/Chargers 4:05: Raiders are banged up with RT Brown and RB Jacobs out, G Ingognito in a boot. Then again, no club is healthy at this time of the year and the Raiders do have some depth. Raiders should battle their division rival tough after their disappointing home finale last week. Carr is actually having a pretty good year hitting 70% of his passes with a 19/8 TD/INT mark. His counterpart, Rivers, has that interception problem and I can't trust the Chargers laying over a TD because of it. Moreover, as I mentioned many a times, their tempory home field in Carson brings no home field advantage. There will surely be at least half the sparse crowd rooting for Oakland. Raiders sport an 8-1 ATS mark as a road dog off a SU loss vs less than .500 opponent. Chargers a money burning 0-5-1 ATS as home chalk and 0-8 ATS at home after allowing 35+. With the dog in this series at 16-5 ATS, we'll roll with Oakland.

Ravens/Browns 1:00: Both of these teams went in different directions following the Browns September 29th 40-25 blowout win at Baltimore. Baltimore proceeded to hang 33.7 PPG on opponents while allowing just 15.7 PPG in their blistering 10 game winning run; meanwhile, the Browns underachieved substantially and will sit out another playoff session. Baltimore, while revenge on mind, will play for a playoff bye and the #1 AFC seed. Browns 2-15 ATS off non-division vs opponent with revenge. We'll look for Lamar and the Ravens' offensive juggernaut to roll. 

Analysis to follow...

Analysis to follow...

Colts/Saints 8:15: Will take the points with a Colts team that has a tendency to stick around and fight. Sure, the Colts are looking for their first SU win since November 17th; however, they've lost 4 of their last 6 by 4 points or fewer. And consider this, Indy sports a sweet 11-2 ATS mark vs teams above .500. Brissett has done an admirable job at the controls. He has an underrated offensive line that should spring 1000+ yard rusher Mack against a Saints defensive front missing two key players in Rankins and Davenport (out for season). And even without Hilton (questionable), others step up such as Pascal. Colts have done well in the red zone where they convert 64% of the time. Saints defense struggles in the red zone allowing nearly 60% conversion. Colts defensively, they'll need to step up like they did vs KC earlier in the year. Colts are 23-9 ATS in December and 5-1 ATS on MNF. Saints struggle at 1-5 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games vs non division opponents. And coming off the physical battle with SF, they won't have an easy time here. 

Jaguars/Raiders 4:05: Both of these defenses are nearly non-existent over the last few weeks. Makes way for a shoot out with Minshew III and Carr. Jaguars are allowing tons of yardage on the ground and Raiders' RB Jacobs (shoulder) is begging to get back on the field for this one. Heavy "over" trends for both teams and this series is 4-1 O/U. Over the call. 

Dolphins/Giants 1:00: Not a fan of the Giants' defense lead by a lame duck DC Bettcher. Giants' defense confused at times, out of position, stupid penalties and poor tackling; nevertheless, Dolphins out of the their element here this time of year. Dolphins off a crushing controversial loss and sport a 21-33 ATS in December and 1-4 ATS in Week 15. With a defense in the bottom of the NFL in points allowed (31), Eli Manning should bring back the old magic to keep him above .500 in his outstanding career. Giants are 6-1 ATS after the Eagles, 5-2 ATS off a double-digit loss at home, 4-1 ATS in Week 15, and 7-2 ATS vs teams below .500. NY should get it done here as Manning outguns Fitzpatrick. 

Broncos/Chiefs 1:00: Broncos was a big play for me last week and I'm staying on them here. They're 2-0 SU with QB Drew Lock at the controls as he's finding a rhythm uplifting the offense significantly. Chiefs' defense leaves much to be desired. A good mix with RB Lindsay, against a KC run-stop-unit ranked 28th in the NFL, should open up some more successful play-action for Lock. Denver's looking to avenge their embarrassing 30-6 home loss in Week 7. Denver 6-0 ATS off back-to-back SU ATS wins (last as a dog). KC coming off a huge win over NE and we'll bet their a little sluggish in this one.

Patriots/Bengals 1:00: The only incentive Cincinnati has at this stage is to tank and lock in Joe Burrow as their franchise QB. Patriots in a bad mood after a rare 0-2 skid and should take it out on the floundering Bengals. Bengals' Mixon running well but Belichick's defense should step up their game here taking away the biggest threat. As for QB Dalton, he lost another weapon in Tate (knee) last week. With limited weaponry and a poor defense, a good bounce back game for the incumbent champs should ensue. 

Dolphins/Giants 1:00: Offense should be at a discount today in East Rutherford. With a reasonable December forecast in the offing, gunslingers Fitzpatrick and Manning should be airing it out vs vulnerable secondaries. Fitzpatrick will have Parker and Wilson - both cleared - to operate with against a Giants' secondary - now missing CB Jenkins (released) - that's been torched repeatedly. Giants defense ranks in the bottom tier in yards and points allowed. And Eli Manning still has some juice with a healthy Barkley, Golden Tate and newfound weapon Darius Slayton helping him out. Should find plenty of green grass leading to the end zone vs a Dolphins' defense dead last in points allowed. Giants 5-1 O/U after scoring less than 15 points. These teams are a combined 15-5 O/U off a SU loss. "Over" easy. 

Jets/Ravens 8:20: Jets are winning games but against lightweights. And when they did beat up some winning teams - Dallas 10/13 and I had them against Oakland on Nov 24th, it was at East Rutherford. Going on the road is a different story. The Jets are in the bottom of the NFL in offensive rushing and it will hurt them here. Baltimore brings a hard charging defense that's quite opportunistic (+8 turnover margin). And Darnold is at his most vulnerable on the road. On the other hand, Lamar Jackson and company are cranking it up and the #1 rushing team in the NFL at 200.9 YPG is rolling over defenses. Sure, NY has a good run-stop-unit but Q. Williams (neck) is a big defensive line force who will be missed; moreover, the Jets' secondary will be without 3 of their starters. Remember, Jackson has thrown 28 TD passes this season including 16 over the last 5 games. Baltimore juggernaut should continue to roll in prime time as they vie for the #1 seed.

Giants/Eagles 8:15: This series has gone "over" in 6 of the last 7 meetings and I expect another high scoring game here. Eli Manning returns and there might be a bit more magic left; after all, he's got some decent receivers to go to in Golden Tate and Darius Slayton along with now healthy RB Barkley. He faces a Philly defense that struggles against the pass. And remember, the Dolphins hung 37 on them last week. As for the Giants' defense, Wentz and company should thrash them. Giants haven't stopped any team worth note all season. They allow 28.3 PPG - bottom tier of NFL. Giants are 7-1 O/U on the road and 5-1 O/U after scoring less than 15 points previously.  "Over" easy.

Seattle/Los Angeles 8:20: Seattle has been doing their best work on the road (6-1 ATS) and, as a I mentioned before, Pete Carroll is the prime time king. Seattle won this matchup in Week 5 yet are playing better at this stage of the season. Mid season arrivals - Clowney and Josh Gordon are making big contributions. And RB Penny adding to the potent run game with Carson behind a strong offensive line. OC Shottenheimer doing a good job mixing it up as QB Wilson continues to play at a high level. Rams want revenge from earlier season defeat; however, they're just 1-10 ATS at home with revenge off a division road game. We'll ride the Seahawks here. 

Broncos/Texans 1:00: Broncos on a nice 4-1 ATS run and most likely found their future QB in Lock who did some good things last week against the Chargers. They've covered 5 of their last 7 road dog roles. Sure, Watson is playing great but him and his mates should have a bit of a letdown off that huge win against New England last week. Houston is a mere 1-8 ATS at home vs the AFC West and just 1-5 ATS as home chalk. We'll look for Denver to keep it tight here. 

49ers/Saints 1:00: 49ers fought a hard battle last week and nearly pulled off a win vs the hottest team in the NFL. San Francisco's defense exhibited its quickness last week doing a pretty good job against the MVP frontrunner - Lamar Jackson. 49ers' defense will have another stern test against a potent New Orleans' offense. I believe the #1 defense in the NFL is up for the challenge. Saints didn't look all that sharp last week vs a weak Atlanta defense. Saints will face a significant upgrade in front four and secondary. Saints miss RB Ingram (Baltimore) ranking 17th in rushing this year. That will be a problem against this hard nosed SF defense. On the other side of the ball, the 49ers have a strong run game with a loaded backfield and Garoppolo has sharpened in recent weeks after TE Kittle got back in the lineup. 49ers a strong road team at 5-1 ATS and I like them here.

Colts/Bucs 1:00: Colts are a respectable 6-2 ATS on the road, 3-1-1 ATS as a road dog, and 5-0 ATS off a double-digit loss at home. Reich is a quality coach at figuring out what needs to be done. He put them on a nice roll down the stretch last year and should be able to rebound here; after all, Colts are 7-1 ATS on the road vs the NFC South, 5-0 ATS in this series. Colts actually outgained the Titans last week but 3 turnovers did them in. We'll look for refined play here vs a Bucs team that's 8-20 ATS as home chalk, 2-10 ATS in Week 14 and failed to cover in their last 5 home games. Colts' defense had a winning formula at KC vs the potent Chiefs offense on October 6th. We'll look for Indy to force Winston in mistakes today. And with the emergence of Pascal at WR, Brissett and company should work a TB pass defense that allows 282 YPG. Bucs a dismal 2-13 ATS off back to back away games and should succumb here. 

Cowboys/Bears 8:20: Cowboys have the overall talent edge but still unable to put it together. They haven't defeated a winning team all season and now laying points on the road vs a .500 team. We'll take the points with a Bears team that's 6-1 ATS off back-to-back wins vs a conference opponent. Bears' offense not a juggernaut by any stretch but Trubisky showed promise last week at Detroit as receivers other than Robinson and Cohen are starting to create separation. Also, RB Montgomery not the back Jordan Howard was, but starting to excel as the season progresses. Dallas does have the #1 offense but unable to capitalize and finish in the end zone. Tonight, they face a pretty good defense under Pagano that needs to show the passion of their former DC Fangio. We'll look for that to emerge tonight in a much needed win for Chicago to stay in the playoff race. 

Vikings/Seahawks 8:15: Vikings are well rested and that usually helps this late in the season for a contending team. Minnesota, however, is a mere 2-8 ATS following a bye. They're also a dismal 2-10 ATS on MNF. Throw in Thielen as a scratch and that will surely help Seattle's secondary. Not a fan of this year's Seattle defense but they've become increasingly opportunistic forcing 16 takeaways over the last 6 games. And now that Penny broke out as the lead horse in the backfield, him and Carson can help QB Wilson stay on path as an MVP candidate. Seattle is 5-1 ATS at home vs Minnesota. Sure, Zimmer and company in a revenge mode from last year but I'm staying with the prime time coaching king - Pete Carroll. Seattle the call. 

Patriots/Texans 8:20: Patriots' offense should finally step up their game tonight; after all, they face a Romeo Crennel defense that's in the bottom tier in passing yards allowed, red zone defense, 3rd down efficiency to name a few. Without DE Watt (IR), the Texans' struggle to create a pass rush. Overrated Crennel will attempt to blitz forcing man coverage and QB Brady will pick the weak Texans' secondary apart. Sure, the Patriots had some sickness this week but should be up to speed tonight. And they'll get back a few receivers (Sanu & Dorsett) for Brady. New England has virtually owned the Texans and Belichick loves going against his old former assistants. Patriots' defense should continue to find ways to disrupt offenses and we'll look for them to keep Watson in check. Patriots the call. 

SF/Baltimore 1:00: Baltimore on a big roll with 7 straight wins outscoring foes 135 to 26 in the process. Rams were the latest victim as Wade Phillips' defense looked lost in assignments as Baltimore gashed them with Ingram and Lamar Jackson. And surely the Rams' defensive personnel was a step slow to the speed of Baltimore. Today, SF's #1 defense in terms of total yards allowed and passing yards, has the speed to contain Jackson providing assignment football is coordinated correctly. Based on how SF played mobile QBs this year, and they've faced a few good ones (Wilson, Murray), we'll look for them to do a decent job here. On the other side of the ball, Garoppolo has been in nice rhythm over the last 5 games with 13/4 TD/INT. And TE Kittle should be good to go after resting a few practice days while RB Breida should be back; moreover, T Staley (finger) possibly good to go as well. Furthermore, the SF defense is relatively healthy and the fastest defense Lamar Jackson and company has faced. Armstead and Bosa are nightmares as the bookends. DC Saleh has been dialing up good schemes. We'll look for SF to keep it tight here. 

Bucs/Jaguars 1:00: Last week, Jaguars ran into a vengeful Titans team but should rebound in this spot. Jaguars' QB Foles usually flourishes when the odds are stacked against him. He is now 0-2 in his return to the lineup and questions abound about going back to Minshew III. We'll look for him to torch the Buccaneers' poor secondary which is in the bottom tier of the NFL. On the other hand, Bucs are 0-5 ATS off a SU win and Arians is 1-7 ATS on the road off a division game vs a non-division opponent. Winston putting up big numbers but throwing way too many interceptions. We'll look for Jax to deliver here as a dog. Dog in this series 7-1 ATS. 

Browns/Steelers 1:00: Browns will miss DE Garrett (suspended) more than the Steelers will miss QB Rudolph (fined and benched). Hodges stepped in nicely in place of Rudolph (benched) to deliver the win. Steelers looking to avenge the loss at Cleveland on the 14th. Cleveland hasn't won in Pittsburgh since 2003! I don't like Cleveland laying points here. They're 0-7 ATS after a win of 14+ and just 6-21-1 ATS vs teams above .500. Pittsburgh a sweet 11-1 ATS at home off a division game with revenge against a division opponent. And the Browns are thin at OT with Robinson in concussion protocol. Not good vs a good edge rush team of Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh the call.

Ravens/Rams 8:15: At first glance, Ravens appear to be the call; after all, they're coming off four straight dominating wins. And three of four of those vs very good teams: Seattle/New England/Houston. The press has Lamar Jackson as the front runner for MVP and that isn't far fetched by an stretch. But not so fast. LA Rams' DC Wade Phillips had the fortune of watching film on Jackson gobbling up yardage on the previous opponents and, similar to a pro golfer standing behind a foe as he putts on an undulated green, can use that to formulate a plan of action. Rams have a good run stop unit (#4 allowing 89 YPG) and improving secondary. We'll look for Phillips' defense to find a way to corral Jackson while taking away running lanes he's so accustomed to hit. On the other hand, Rams' offense showed promise last week as Gurley stepped up his game (97 yards on 25 carries). Ravens' defense is 25th vs the run and Gurley can be the gateway to getting QB Goff comfortable in the pocket again. And he may have that tonight with Cooks and Woods back in action; consequently, that should take the pressure off Kupp who can now be that great possession guy again. Rams have been underrated virtually all season and quietly accumulated a 7-3 ATS mark this season. I'll take them here. 

Packers/49ers 8:20: Packers coming off a bye this late in the season is a good thing. They're in great position for the playoffs and they get a chance to get their bodies rested and the injured back on the field. GB a sweet 22-12 SU off a bye week and they've covered 3 of 4 on the road this year. And they've had success at SF at 7-2-1 ATS. SF, on the other hand, showing signs of attrition. They've gone just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games. Sure, TE Kittle will help Garoppolo tonight, but we'll grab the points in prime time with Aaron Rodgers. Shannahan just 2-10 ATS at home after scoring more than 22 points. GB the call. 

Raiders/Jets 1:00: Raiders getting much praise and sitting well in the AFC West; however, a closer look reveals they've beaten teams with a combined 7-23-1 record. Surely the Jets fall in to the loser category as well but this is a tough spot for Oakland. They have to travel cross country to cold and rainy East Rutherford for an early game - clearly out of their element. Raiders are just 1-3 ATS at MetLife Stadium vs the Jets. Sure, the Jets' offense leaves much to be desired but now that Sam Darnold has gotten back, the Jets are coming off two solid wins with some offensive firepower; moreover, even RB Bell has scored a TD in his last 2 games. And the Jets' defense is no joke. They're improving dramatically. Jets' HC Gase 6-1 ATS at home vs opponent off back-to-back SU wins. We'll take the field goal with the home team. 

Panthers/Saints 1:00: Saints suffered a brief bump in the road on November 10th vs Atlanta; however, bounced back nicely vs TB last week. Meanwhile, Carolina running out of its magic as QB Allen has 3 TDs with 8 INTs over his last 4 games. Won't get easier today vs a stout New Orleans defense that can get after QBs. Allen has been vulnerable to sacks during losing streak. We'll look for Drew Brees to keep it rolling as Michael Thomas continues to break recepeption records and RB Kamara should follow up an impressive return last week with another big game. 

Bucs/Falcons 1:00: These teams heading into the opposite direction with TB plummeting on an 0-6 ATS slide while the Falcons have reversed course to grab three straight covers including a 2-0 SU/ATS roll in impressive fashion. On comes another NFC South Division rival that is beatable. Falcons' QB Ryan should torch the TB defense that allows an NFL worst 31.3 PPG. On the the other hand, now that the Falcons have found their pass rush, Winston will again be vulnerable. He's thrown 18 INTs this season and fumbled 8X over his last 5 games. Falcons 7-3 ATS after allowing less than 15 points previously. Home team in this series 4-0 ATS while the favorite is 11-5-1 ATS. Falcons the call. 

Colts/Texans 8:20: This one I delayed until knowing if T.Y. Hilton (calf) is good to go. Hilton has been a nightmare to Houston; in 8 games, he's caught 46 passes for 1018 yards and 7 TDs! He remains questionable but based on reports, he should go. Moreover, the Colts are well guided under Reich. Consider this: The Colts are an amazing 10-1 ATS vs teams above .500. QB Brissett stepped in nicely last week and so did backup RB Jonathon Williams behind perhaps the strength of their team - Offensive Line. Texans' defensive front not the same without DE Watt. Texans just 2-8 ATS vs winning teams and not a good home favorite at 1-4 ATS. Moreover, Texans just 2-7 ATS on Thursday compared to Colts 12-4-1 ATS mark. Yes, Watson and Hopkins is a lethal combination but like the way the Colts' defense is playing now. Colts the call.  

Analysis to follow...

Bears/Rams 8:20: Rams offensive line in tatters and that doesn't bode well against a hungry Bears' front. Goff has succumbed to much pressure this year and it surely won't get easier tonight. He'll be missing one of his key vertical threats in Cooks and RB Gurley still showing signs of lingering injury issues. And defensively, Rams' secondary not what it was a year ago. Rams got shut down in Chicago last season (6-15) and want revenge; however, the numbers don't stack up under McVay: He's 1-4 ATS with revenge vs an opponent off a division game.

Bills/Dolphins 1:00: Dolphins have turned it up several notches since early season blowouts; as a matter of fact, Miami has covered 5 straight including 2-0 run SU. They're looking to avenge earlier season loss. With QB Fitzpatrick under center at home, always dangerous getting points. Miami running the rock well and should deliver here. Buffalo showing signs of slippage on a 1-2-1 ATS slide including vs Miami Week 7.  

Jets/Redskins 1:00: Redskins play like they're throwing in the towel and having a bye week this late in the season won't do them any justice. Redskins 1-7 ATS in their last 8 following a bye. Callahan has given the keys to Haskins to finish the season. That's like throwing a sheep into a wolves den. Haskins clearly not grasping the heavily detailed offense Callahan is known to employ. Jets' defense devours the run (#2) and should be unleashed from all angles on Haskins today. On the other side of the ball, Darnold is a much better quarterback than his counterpart and has a pretty good supporting cast in RB Bell (overdue for a big game vs Redskins' 28th defense vs run) and speedy receivers to work a poor Redskins' defense that doesn't put a whole lot of pressure on QBs. Redskins were outgained 52-18 during their 3 game slide and that gap should widen after today. Jets the call.  

Texans/Ravens 1:00: Texans off a big win in London followed by a bye week should result in money today. Texans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 bye weeks under O'Brien; moreover, teams off wins in London followed by a bye are a sweet 6-1 ATS. Texans' secondary held up well in London and now had a chance to get healthy. Corners: Conley, Joseph and Roby are good to go and now Hargreaves (acquired from TB) is joining mix. The Texans had extra time to construct a game plan to contain Lamar Jackson. Baltimore overdue to fall and it should come here. Ravens just 1-6 ATS vs the AFC South and sport a poor 1-10 ATS mark off SU/ATS win vs opponent off a double digit SU/ATS win. Furthermore, Ravens 5-12-2 ATS off a SU win of 14+. And remember that Houston has a playmaker of its own in QB Watson who is quietly have an amazing season too: 70% completions/18 TDs/5 INTs. Texans a dangerous dog here. 

Steelers/Browns 8:20: Browns have covered 4 of the last 5 in this series but ALL as a dog! Now the Brownies are cast in a role where they've not been good: At home and as a favorite. Browns are a money burning 9-23 ATS at home, 7-19-1 ATS in November, and 1-4 ATS off a SU win. Steelers on a sweet 6-1 ATS run and I'm going to continue to ride them here. Steelers' defense starting to play up to its potential, especially after finding missing piece - S Fitzpatrick - a few games back. We'll look for the Steelers' Heyward, Dupree, Watt to disrupt Mayfield's game. And former Browns' CB Joe Haden is turning back the clock playing great football. Offensively, Rudolph getting the job done while his receiving mates including former college buddy - Washington - turning up their game! Steelers a strong prime time team including 4-0-1 ATS on Thursday; moreover, they're 13-2 ATS off SU/ATS win vs less than .500 division opponent off SU win. Pittsburgh the call. 

Seahawks/49ers 8:15: 49ers clearly look like world beaters at 8-0; however, a closer look reveals weaknesses that Seattle can exploit. 49ers' defense, as good as it is, does allow 4.7 YPC. Seattle's offensive game starts with the run and Seattle has a deep backfield led by Chris Carson (764 yards). And up until now, the best QB the 49ers faced was the Rams' Goff - who isn't having that good of a season. Russell Wilson is playing at MVP caliber and he will show up in Prime Time just like the Prime Time king of coaches - Pete Carroll. And remember, the 49ers' best tackler LB Kwon Alexander (out) will not play; moreover, offensively, SF most likely will be without Garoppolo's favorite target - TE Kittle (knee/ankle). Carroll 10-1 ATS as a dog vs .500 or greater division opponent. And SF has been a money burner off a bye at 0-8 ATS. I like those numbers! 

Seahawks/49ers 8:15: Both teams have their share of weaknesses defensively and we should see them emerge tonight. Seattle's defense leaves much to be desired vs the run and through the air. Meanwhile, the 49ers' defense is rock solid but allows lots of yardage on the ground; consequently, that should ignite a Seahawks' offense that thrives on play action with Wilson. We'll look for a night with explosive plays. Seahawks 13-5 O/U in their last 18 games. They're 8-2 O/U on the road vs a team .500 or greater. SF has gone Over in 8 of their last 11 against winning teams. And this series has gone "over" in 5 of the last 7 . "Over" it is. 

Panthers/Packers 4:25: Packers were overdue for a stinker and it hit last week at Los Angeles. Today, look for the Packers to bounce back strong in this spot. Carolina has been winning - on a 3-1 SU/ATS run but not confirmed in out-gaining opponents. They've been beaten in the stats in their last 4 games. It will be difficult for them to create turnovers and stay in this one at Lambeau Field where Rodgers and company should lock in. Carolina's defense has allowed 9 rush TDs over that stretch and that should allow RBs Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams to get rolling. GB defense needs to step up and should turn it up a notch on Carolina's QB Allen. 

Rams/Steelers 4:25: Going to be tough for fair weathered Rams to go into Heinz Field in November and grab a win. Sure, Rams have been road warriors but catching a surging Pittsburgh team that's dangerous in November (74-45 SU). Rams have a long history of struggling in November (43-71 SU) and won't have an easy time here. They're coming off wins over lightweights Atlanta and Cincinnati. Today, grinding out those points will be difficult to come by against a surging Pittsburgh defense. 

Bills/Browns 1:00: Browns have failed to cover at home (0-3 ATS) and on a dismal 0-4 ATS slide. Hard to lay points with a team in the lower echelon of the league in points scored (25th) and points allowed (23rd). Sure, the Bills have compiled a winning record against losing teams but they didn't make the schedule. And remember, Bills traded punches toe to toe with NE covering the number. Bills have the #3 defense in the NFL in terms of yielding yardage. Technically, Browns a poor 1-8 ATS in their last 8 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Bills 4-1 ATS in this series and should make a game of it.

Detroit/Bears 1:00: Lou Holtz once said, "You're never as good as everyone tells you when you win, and you're never as bad as they say when you lose."  The Bears were over-hyped in the pre-season coming off a spectacular 2018; this year, the media is ripping them a new ass and that finally brings some value back to Chicago. Trubisky overdue for a quality game and it should come here; after all, Detroit has the 30th ranked pass defense, allowed 400+ yards in 5 of 8 games this season. Bears' RB Montgomery starting to pick up his game. We'll look for Allen Robinson and RB Cohen to turn up their games a few notches here. On the other hand, Chicago still has a pretty good defense. Bears 3-1-1 ATS last 5 at home in this series and should deliver. 

Chargers/Raiders 8:20: Chargers' QB Rivers is a sweet 9-4 at Oakland Coliseum where he's thrown for 1,217 yards, 8 TDs and only 1 INT. He should torch an Oakland pass defense in the bottom tier of the NFL allowing 300 yards per game; at the same time, LA has gotten their run game cooking with Gordon grinding out 80 yards last week vs the Packers. Gordon has hit 4 straight games of 120+ vs Oakland! Sure, Raiders' offense cooking but liked how the Chargers got after Rodgers and the Packers Sunday. Bosa and Ingram are menacing on the edge and the Raiders' offensive line is hurting. Chargers 4-0 ATS in prime time and 4-0 ATS in Oakland. Chargers the call. 

Cowboys/Giants 8:15: Heavy Dallas supporters for this one but we'll take the touchdown with the home team. Cowboys not a great prime time team and struggle on MNF (4-10 ATS). Giants are seeking to avenge their opening day loss and should be competitive here. Giants' QB Daniel Jones now at the helm and showing signs of maturity as the season progresses. And he has speedster Slayton and a healthy RB Barkley will surely help. Cowboys' pass defense (9th) leaves much to be desired. And linebacker depth thinned with Vander Esch (neck) on the mend. He covers lots of ground on pass plays. Defensively for the Giants, they have their flaws; however, secondary playmakers Peppers and Bethea can make plays; moreover, the Giants have 22 sacks on the year and add Leonard Williams (ready to go). We'll look for NY to hang tough here. 

Packers/Chargers 4:25: Packers rolling and Aaron Rodgers' favorite target Davante Adams should be back today. Chargers barely eked out a win last week at Chicago and come home to a city (Carson) where they get little fan support; as a matter of fact, there will be more GB fans in this stadium than Chargers' supporters. GB 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Chargers' run game (69 YPG) can't get going even with Gordon back. And Chargers will have to adapt to new OC after Whisenhunt let go earlier this week. Technically, Chargers 2-10 ATS as a home dog of more than 3 points vs an opponent off SU/ATS win.

Bears/Eagles 1:00: Revenge spot for Chicago, which is stewing about last season's playoff last second FG doink. Bears still haven't corrected the doinks (FG miss in last seconds last week) but do remain very competitive under competent HC Nagy. Bears' QB Trubisky starting to gather confidence, especially since rookie RB Montgomery grinding out yardage. And WR Allen Robinson II continues to shine. Remember, he had a huge day vs Philadelphia last January. And Philadelphia's pass defense (21st in NFL) leaves much to be desired. On the other hand, Chicago's defense still strong under new DC Pagano. Technically, Bears 5-0 ATS vs opponent off SU dog win. And they're 18-4 ATS before Detroit. Eagles' HC Pederson just 1-6 ATS at .500 or greater off non-division game vs opponent off back to back SU losses. Bears get er done.

Houston/Jacksonville 9:30 am: This one is going off early in London. Should not be a problem for Jacksonville; after all, they've done this trip for 4 straight years going 3-1 in the process including a competitive loss. As for Houston, their first trip here. it will be a difficult trip for the Texans who come here banged up - secondary still on the mend, WR Fuller (hamstring) out, J.J. Watt (season ending pec tear). Yes, QB Watson is magical but only so much magic he can do on his own. His offensive line is hobbling and that doesn't bode well for a dominant d-line of the Jaguars and collectively as a team ranked #3 in the NFL in sacks. On the other hand, Jag's QB Minshew II showing magic of his own. And he's got a run game with Fournette to help aid his game. Dog in this series 10-4 and we'll look for Jacksonville to exact revenge from 9/15.

San Francisco/Arizona 8:20: SF has been Arizona's whipping boy for some time. The 49ers haven't beaten Arizona since Jim Harbaugh was patrolling the sidelines back in 2014. This year, however, the 49ers have what it takes to deliver. Their defense is allowing a meager 224 YPG on just 4.4 yards per play! Arizona's QB Murray is doing a decent job taking care of the football but is limited in weaponry tonight. With RBs' Johnson and Edmonds out, the Cardinals had to grab Drake from Miami. 49ers a bit banged up but Garoppolo starting to get in rhythm and Arizona defense leaves much to be desired. SF 9-0 ATS in Games 9-12 on the road off a SU win vs a less than .500 opponent off a non-division game. SF the call. 

Panthers/49ers 4:05: A defense and a ground game in the top tier of the NFL usually equates with success in the standings. Such be the case of the 6-0 49ers which has choked out all of its opponents. Carolina's QB Allen has been outstanding but will face his toughest test to date: Nick Bosa and Dee Ford have been nightmares for the opposition. If there is a defense which can contain McCaffrey, this is the unit. Carolina overdue to fall flat and it should come here. Panthers a dismal 1-7 ATS rested vs a .500 or greater team.