Bears/Lions 12:30: Sure, the Lions have performed well on Thanksgiving in recent years but got to go with the dynamic defense of Chicago to pull this one out for the Bears. Bears will be without QB Trubisky  but Chase Daniel is a veteran back up and much like a coach. He knows the offense well and should do fine. Bears do have a run game behind Howard and Cohen to help him out. On the other hand, Detroit is banged up with RB Kerryon Johnson (knee) on the shelf, Tate off to Philly and Marvin Jones Jr. (knee) out. Stafford has been sacked 30 times thus far this season hand that number should go up after Mack and company are through with him today. Detroit 0-10 ATS as a dog on Thursdays. Bears the call. 

Chiefs/Rams 8:15: Both offenses in the top tier of production and surely the defenses will have their hands full tonight. KC's Mahomes is difficult to rattle on the road (18/3 TD/INT) but he will face the most fierce defensive line yet. If Donald and Suh aren't enough, throw into the mix DE Dante Fowler (acquired from the Jags a few weeks ago) and pressure should come. Rams' defense a bit more sound in all areas of defense including their light but quick linebackers - built more like hybrid LB-defensive backs. And the Rams' corner rotation of Peters, Hill and Shields rise to the occasion more games than not. On the other hand, KC's run stop unit has been shaky (5.1 YPC) but can get after the QB (2nd in NFL in sacks). I do, however, like the offensive line of the Rams which is well disciplined. They've consistently given QB Goff the needed time to pass and pave the way for super star RB Gurley and very good backup Malcom Brown. Goff will be without Kupp (ACL) but has dangerous weapons Cooks, Woods. And don't be surprised if McVay goes to TEs Higbee and Everett to take advantage of the KC linebackers which struggle defending pass. Ultimately, the 41 years of NFL experience for Wade Phillips should pay off as he dials up a way to limit Mahomes, while the Rams' offense pounds the rock and check down in passes to Gurley and the TEs to keep the explosive weaponry of KC off the field. We'll give LAR the edge. 

Vikings/Bears 8:20: Vikings are well rested and eager to take back control of the NFC North. But not so fast if you will. Vikings have yet to beat a winning team this season and underachieved for the most part after high pre-season expectations. Chicago, an over-achiever, is looking to exact triple revenge - going back to October 2016 when they claimed their last defeat of Minnesota. Tonight, we'll look for Trubisky to finally rise as a prime time performer. He's got a great supporting cast and the #1 defense in total yards to help. Chicago also leads the NFL in INTs and 2nd in takeaways with 24. Bears' HC Nagy doing a bang up job and we'll side with him here as a SU winner. 

Eagles/Saints 4:25: Everybody and their brother on the Saints after 7 straight covers and blowout win over Cincinnati. And yes, Brees is on fire, RB Kamara is a matchup nightmare, and the Saints' run stop unit is menacing. Nevertheless, too many points to an Eagles team coming off a loss. Eagles, 7-3 ATS off a SU loss, beaten by an average of 4.4 PPG in their 5 defeats with none greater than a TD. Pederson 5-0 ATS off a SU loss vs an opponent off a double-digit SU win. Yes, Eagles' secondary is thin with CB Darby (ACL) out; however, CB Douglas is capable of rising to the occasion and CB Sidney Jones is back in action. Also keep in mind the strength of the Eagles defensive line which can add Bennett and rookie Sweat to the mix. Saints without OT Armstead, could be an attacking point for Philadelphia. And remember, QB Wentz got in a groove last week and should torch a Saints' pass defense that has given up nearly 300 YPG - worse than the Eagles. And with Saints' killer - Golden Tate now in the mix, Eagles should be in this one. Tate, while with Detroit, caught 35 passes for 485 yards against the Saints. Finally, with New Orleans at 0-7 ATS off a double-digit SU win vs a less than .500 non-division opponent, Eagles the way to go here. 

Houston/Washington 1:00: Well rested Houston, 4-0 ATS off a bye, sports a sweet 20-9 ATS mark as a traveler in November. Their counterpart controls a disappointing 23-32 ATS home mark in November. And the injury riddled Redskins' offensive line won't help matters today against the dynamic presence of the Houston defensive line. And Washington's defense yielded a ton of yards to TB last week but held on for the win. Today, I project a crack in the Washington defense with the well rested legs of QB Watson and company vying for their seventh straight win. Houston 6-0 ATS as a road favorite of less than three points. Buying points or playing this one on the money line is your best bet.

Bucs/Giants 1:00: Giants off a rare win on Monday and eager to stay in the win column. We'll bet on them here. QB Manning flashed some of that old magic with a come from behind win and the winning momentum should continue. Liked the way the offensive line held up for Manning. TB doesn't have the fierce pass rush among the defensive line. Sure, former Giant - Pierre Paul vows to exact some revenge on his former team for releasing him but not sure that will happen. TB defense is injury ravaged and have to go to practice squad to fill positions. Bucs give up 410 YPG and a staggering 6.7 yards per play. Manning and his plethora of weaponry should ring up some more TDs. Bucs have a league worst minus 19 turnover margin. Fitzpatrick had 5 turnovers in his last two games. Sure, he'll ring up lots of yardage but getting in the end zone has been difficult as of late...TB did win this one 25-23 on 10/01/17. Pat Shurmur a sweet 8-1 ATS with revenge vs an opponent off back-to-back losses. Giants deliver.

Green Bay/Seattle 8:20: Both of these teams are clinging to playoff lives and the loser will all but mathematically be eliminated. Seahawks in better shape here. They're getting back Chris Carson (hip) who will rotate with Penny, who came off a breakout game last week vs the Rams. In addition, WR Baldwin shook off the rust of an extended injury last week with a solid game and poised to have another here. Packers' defense banged up with top linebackers Perry and Martinez hobbling. And for the Packers' offensively, loss of Cobb, who reinjured hamstring, takes away another key target for QB Rodgers. Seattle is seeking revenge from last year's 17-9 loss at GB. Home team in this series is 6-1 ATS. Furthermore, Seattle QB Wilson has never lost three straight games in the NFL. And hard to fade Pete Carroll in prime time. As coach Seattle, Carroll is a sweet 22-5-1 ATS in that role!

GB/Seattle 8:20: This series has gone 3-1-1 O/U in Seattle and due for another high scoring affair. Not fond of Norton Jr. as Seattle's DC; after all, the Seahawks are no longer striking fear in opposing teams and scored upon too easily. Only a matter of time that Carroll takes over defensive duties. Rodgers is heating up and will surely do the damage. On the other hand, GB is hurting with injuries to LB corps and the secondary. Seattle's QB Wilson and the now established run game of Seattle should put a dent in the Packers' defense. Heavy "over" signals for GB and Seattle is 9-3 "Over" as non-division favorite of 7 or less. "Over" the call. 

Giants/49ers 8:15: I try to make a legitimate case for the NYG to win/cover this but can't. Giants have been a prime time flop especially against non-division foes on MNF at 0-9 ATS. These teams met last year a Levi Stadium where the 49ers prevailed 31-21. Giants are 2-12 ATS on the road with revenge on MNF. And sure, New York is well rested but don't think they can take advantage of it for they're 10-20 ATS off a bye-week. You can build a case for SF rested; after all, they thrashed Oakland on November 1st in what was a mere scrimmage to them. And the Giants' November ledger doesn't offer much hope either; after all, they're a money burning 11-23-1 ATS this month. 49ers, however, have been money on MNF at 26-6 ATS. QB Mullens was well schooled by Shanahan in his first NFL start. Giants' defense not that much better than the Raiders; consequently, we'll look for Mullens to stay sharp on this home field. Giants just fall short on the offensive end with a patchwork offensive line that hinders their progress. SF the call. 

Chargers/Raiders 4:05: Chargers now have a run game and it's taking Phillip Rivers and the Chargers to new heights. Melvin Gordon is having a great year running behind a well schooled offensive line. The Chargers are producing about 5.2 YPC on the ground. And throw in a healthy WR Keenan Allen to the mix and Rivers will pick you apart. Raiders' defense a patchwork quilt as Gruden releases players and brings in new ones. Oakland hasn't recorded a sack since Week 6 and that spells danger to the Raiders' secondary with the explosive Chargers' offense now in rhythm. Chargers are 3-1 ATS on the road and actually prefer to play on the road. Have you seen their home field in Carson? Usually more than half the people in the 35,000 capacity stadium are travelers. Chargers should deliver here. 

Jaguars/Colts 1:00: Jaguars feeling the heat after many had them as an AFC frontrunner. Now they're sitting in the bottom of the AFC South with Indy after 4 straight losses. On a good note, the Jaguars are coming off a bye in which they are 7-1 ATS; moreover, RB Fournette (hamstring) is back today to drive a struggling run game and help alleviate pressure on QB Bortles. Actually, Bortles has had some big games vs Indy's defense and I wouldn't be surprised if he does well today. Indy's coming off two wins against lightweights - Buffalo and Oakland. Jaguars still have a staunch defense that can bring heat on the QB. Remember, they had 14 sacks in 2 games against the Colts last year and are 6-0 ATS in this series. We'll take the points.

Panthers/Steelers 8:20: Steelers a bit more beat up going into this one on a short week after a hard scrum with division rival Baltimore. Carolina, on the other hand, took care of lightweight TB for their third straight win and cover. Carolina has cleaned up its game since a few turnovers at Washington. Panthers had zero turnovers during their 3 game win streak. Panthers key stars - Newton, Olsen, McCaffrey healthy and C Kalil (ankle) good to go. Pittsburgh more beat up. On the surface their defense appears to have tightened against the run; however, at a closer look, 5 of the 7 teams they've played rank in the bottom tier in rushing yards. Carolina is in a virtual tie with the LA Rams as the #1 rushing team at 5.2 YPC/144 YPG. Favorites between 3' to 10 sport a money burning 21-49-1 ATS mark since 2014 when coming off a game in which they could not force a turnover and facing an opponent off a game committing less than 2 turnovers. Panthers present a much more aggressive opportunistic defense and should deliver. They're 9-0 ATS as a dog vs an opponent off a SU dog win. Carolina the call. 

Titans/Cowboys 8:15: Concerns of generating enough offense keep me from grabbing the points with the Titans here. They have struggled on the true road and rank in the bottom tier of the NFL in yards and points manufactured. Dallas is #3 in total defense and vs the pass. DE Lawrence manages to come alive at home (7 sacks last 5 home games). Mariotta does a bang up job running the offense; however, he doesn't have a consistent vertical threat nor a TE since Walker went down. Surely Stocter, Smith and Firkser are not the answer. And RB Henry hasn't been that consistent running threat. That Tennessee lack of offense should have a wearing down effect defensively throughout the course of this game. Dallas now has a vertical threat in Amari Cooper. And RB Elliot should continue his strong running at home. Cowboys have historically been strong in November at home (41-29 ATS) and off bye weeks (13-6 ATS). We'll look for the coaching shakeup (offensive line) to be their wakeup call and deliver here.

Rams/Saints 4:25: Rams got a scare last week but found a way to finish the Packers off. Today, I expect the same. Sure, the Saints are hot and Brees is putting up big numbers. But love the Rams offense that has been unstoppable all season. And New Orleans top pick - Davenport - who has 4 sacks over the past five games, is out. Give Goff an extra second in the pocket and he'll find one of his many weapons roaming the secondary or hit Gurley out in the flats. On the other hand, now that Aaron Donald is in full stride, Brees will have his most extensive test. And add veteran Suh and new edge rush acquisition - Dante Fowler to the mix, I like the Rams chances defensively of slowing down New Orleans. Note: Saints in weeks 9 through 12 are a money burning 0-9 ATS off back-to-back SU/ATS wins with revenge. Rams the call.  

Chargers/Seahawks 4:05: Seahawks on a nice roll as HC Carroll once again steers his team on a run for a playoff birth. Chargers are also doing well but the benefactor of a soft schedule enabling them to beat the sub-par teams. Anthony Lynn now just 3-8 ATS vs winning teams and 1-6 ATS vs opponents off a SU win. Sure, they're coming off a bye but just 3-8 ATS with rest. Without Bosa (foot) wreaking havoc on QBs, we'll look for elusive QB Wilson to keep getting it done, especially now that the run game (3rd in NFL) is cooking. Seattle the call. 

Bears/Bills 1:00: Scheduling difficulty and personnel problems put Buffalo in bad spot. They're operating on a short week after a strong effort Monday at home vs New England. Bills were in the game for 3.5 quarters but just don't have the firepower offensively to move the ball. And with backup QB Derek Anderson in concussion protocol, that leaves the dreaded Peterson as the only option. Nathan Peterman was mediocre in college at Pittsburgh and he's an interception magnet in the NFL. And surely Bills first year OC Daboll is not comfortable in his role; after all, Bills' QBs have a combined 3 TDs to 13 INTs! With Khalil Mack (questionable) possibly back on the edge on an already pretty tough Bears' defense, we'll look for Bears' DC Fangio to dial up a variety of exotic blitzes to add to Peterman's misery. We'll lay the wood now that Chicago has the balanced offensive attack.

Patriots/Bills 8:15: The Patriots have dominated this series with QB Brady and, barring a sleepwalk performance, should deliver the win. But keep in mind that this Buffalo defense is one of the better ones Brady has faced this year. Buffalo ranks 4th against the pass and have sacked opposing QBs 19 times. Buffalo's defense has kept them in games. On the other hand, Buffalo's offensive weaponry is limited. McCoy remains in concussion protocol, and receivers Benjamin and Jones do not strike fear in secondaries. And veteran QB journeyman Derek Anderson is coming off a miserable three interception game last week as the starter by default; consequently, Buffaloes points will come at a premium despite NE's yielding on the defensive side. NE as a road favorite of more than 8 points sports a 1-10 O/U mark. NE is 0-6 O/U on the road against teams with losing home records. Buffalo is on an 0-5 O/U run. Tread lightly on the "under" for this series is 5-2 O/U in Buffalo. 

Packers/Rams 4:25: Packers' receiving corps getting healthier as Cobb and Allison should be well enough to join TE Graham and red hot Adams; consequently, that should make life much better for QB Aaron Rodgers, who has had immense success against the Rams. Of course, this is no ordinary Rams team of the past. LA is a legit undefeated team with dangerous weaponry on both sides of the ball. Nevertheless, they're struggling to cover against winning teams. Packers a solid 22-11 SU / 20-12 ATS off a bye week. Packers a sweet 9-1 ATGS vs an opponent off back-to-back away games. Pack the call. 

Jets/Bears 1:00: Injuries racking up for the Jets on the offensive end but not as bad as the public perception. Jets still have adequate depth and, among the skill players, RB Crowell is a solid replacement for Powell (neck). Laying double digits a bit of stretch for Chicago; after all, they're 3-7 ATS in their last 10 favorite roles. And with Todd Bowles (Jets' HC) at a sweet 7-0 ATS off a SU/ATS loss vs an opponent off a SU loss, we'll grab the points and the competitive Jets. 

Seahawks/Lions 1:00: Matt Patricia not ready for prime time against Super Bowl winning coach Pete Carroll. Carroll's boys coming off a successful trip to London and well rested. Teams coming off that week of rest after the London gig have a high percentage win rate and we'll gladly take the points here. Defensively, the Seahawks were supposed to be in a major overhaul but are getting healthier (K.J. Wright back) and Bobby Wagner is the highest rated LB in production in the NFL after seven weeks. Moreover, Seattle might not generate lots of sacks but are in the top 7 generating pressure on QBs at 31.7% of the time. Offensively, Seattle's RB Chris Carson has 352 rushing yards and should put a dent in the 30th ranked run-stop-unit of Detroit; consequently, QB Wilson, who's having another fine year, should find Lockett and Baldwin for significant gains. Seattle sports a 10-0 ATS mark as a conference dog off SU/ATS win. Seattle the call. 

Jaguars/Eagles 9:30: Jags and Bortles usually do well in London but going to fade them here. Just when you think the Jags may shake out of their funk, something disastrous happens. As it turns out, a major portion of their secondary: Church, Harrison, Wilson and Hayden were detained last night for not paying their tab at a burlesque club. As bad as their defense has been in recent weeks, this no time for these guys to lose focus elsewhere. We'll look for Philadelphia to get it back in gear after their disastrous collapse last week. 

Miami/Houston 8:20: Not a fan of former Texan QB Osweiler as he'll get a rude awakening from the Houston crowd and the Texans' defense. We'll look for the revved up Houston defense to keep him under duress all night. Dolphins receiving corps lacks a vertical threat and I don't see too many explosive plays touching down. On the other hand, Dolphins' defense has its share of holes and we'll look for playmaking QB Watson to turn up his game as he gets more comfortable with his supporting cast every week. And I like that Houston is 12-0 and 10-2 ATS as a favorite against a team of 4+ points under O'Brien. Houston the call. 

Giants/Falcons 8:15: Giants not as bad as what their record indicates and can't get worse than last game (Phil on 11th). Giants had time to mend bodies and work out fundamental flaws; consequently, we'll look for a better showing tonight. NY 9-0-1 after Thursday game and given a full 10 days of rest, Giants should show up here. Atlanta's defense sorely misses the best OLB in the NFL - Deion Jones (out). And fortunately Atlanta's injury ravaged defense, including along the defensive front, will allow QB Manning to do more than check down to All-World RB Barkley. Giants are a sweet 13-6-2 ATS off a double-digit loss at home. Atlanta has not been a good October team at 1-7 ATS. We'll look for the Giants to show up tonight for a change. 

Giants/Falcons 8:15: Falcons are 24th in stopping the run and their injury ravaged defense is putting immense pressure on QB Ryan to outscore opponents. Tonight, we'll look for the well rested Giants to establish some offense. Sure, heavy "under" trends in this series, but these defenses have been shaky in allowing explosive plays. Giants have some big play talent (Beckham Jr. & Barkley) who can exploit the weak Atlanta secondary. Falcons are on a 5-0 O/U run and 16-5-1 O/U after scoring 30+. Value with the "over".

Cowboys/Redskins 4:25: The Cowboys have gotten the best in this series winning 8 of the last 10 and sweeping last year's series. Today, we'll look for Washington to finally deliver. QB Alex Smith has had success against the Cowboys' secondary to the tune of 665 yards with 6 TD/2 INTs. Cowboys' defensive line is hobbling with injuries but managing to play through it. And LB Sean Lee is still roughing it with a lingering hamstring problem which can drag on for a season. We'll look for Washington to settle in with their assortment of weaponry including Adrian Peterson and TE Jordan Reid. And defensively, with potentially a great defensive line should help limit Prescott and Elliot. And when Cole Beasley is your go-to-guy with virtually no vertical threat, I don't see the Cowboys running away with this. Redskins 8-0 ATS with revenge vs .500 or greater division opponent off a double digit SU win. 'Skins the call.

Broncos/Cardinals 8:20: Can't lay any points with a Broncos team that's repeatedly burned money on the road at 3-13 ATS. Tonight, they'll limp in to Arizona with key injuries across the board: LB Ray, C Jones, RT Veldheer and G Leary (season). The Cardinals are no lock here either. They're coming off a physical battle at Minnesota but I like tenacity of their defense that held together and kept them in the game. QB Rosen should settle in at home and help generate some offense including getting RB David Johnson revved up in the run game; after all, the Broncos' poor run stop unit gave up back-to-back 200 yard rushing games and there is no quick fix on a short week. Edge to Arizona. 

Rams/Broncos 4:05: Broncos' defense got gashed to the tune of 512 yards last week vs New York. Denver is 30th in league against the run and that doesn't bode well against the league's #1 offense. Rams are in a nice rhythm offensively and can't see the Broncos stopping them here; especially, with Cooks and Kupp now ready for action after being in concussion protocol last week. And defensively, Rams should shape up after a disappointing outing at Seattle last week. Suh and Donald licking their chops against turnover prone Keenum (7 INT). And in October, Rams a sweet 12-1 ATS off a SU win vs an opponent off a double-digit SU loss. Vance Joseph a money burning 1-6 ATS as a dog of 3 or more. Rams the call. 

Colts/Jets 1:00: Had the Jets (+3) as my Top Play last week but will fade them here. Jets are erratic after big wins as exhibited by their 0-7 ATS mark off a double-digit ATS win vs an opponent off back-to-back losses. And the Jets are 0-5 ATS after scoring more than 30 points. On the other hand, hard to fade Andrew Luck off a loss. He's 22-7 ATS off a loss including 12-0 SU/ATS when coming off a loss of 14 or more points. And remember the last time Luck faced the Jets - 2016 in a 41-10 whitewashing at NY. With the dog at 5-2 ATS in this series, Indy the call. 

Seahawks/Raiders 1:00: This one in London and Raiders didn't fare well there last time they visited there in 2014. This time, Seattle should deliver. Seattle established the run game last week against a formidable Rams' defense and should slither through holes in a Raiders' defense that allows a generous 4.9 YPC. Offensively, Carr has already thrown 8 INT. Despite Seattle's secondary issues, HC Carroll should find a way to get out of London a winner.

Steelers/Bengals 1:00: Bengals finally in a position to get a win in this series. They've lost four straight at home to Pittsburgh but now playing good football. Bengals making less mistakes in turnovers and penalties than their counterpart. In addition, get back LB Burfict who got some good action in last week. Steelers are always a concern coming off a blowout win under Tomlin. Cincinnati the call. 

Eagles/Giants 8:20: Giants have been competitive virtually all season but fail to close out games. Tonight, in their first division home game where they're seeking revenge from getting swept last year, we'll grab that field goal; after all, Shurmur is a sweet 8-1 ATS with revenge vs an opponent off back to back SU losses. Giants are in a better position to win as well. They have a legitimate big game RB in Barkley, a healthy Beckham Jr., better coached offensive line, and have a better red zone defense (3rd in NFL) giving up 33% TD 5conversions as opposed to 47% at this time last year. And remember, last year, both games were tight; as a matter of fact, the last three games in this series resulted in a win by 5 points or fewer. Eagles will miss RB Ajayi (ACL). Giants are 3-0 ATS as a Thursday Night home dog. Eagles 1-6 ATS off a non-division game vs an opponent off back-to-back losses under Pederson. Giants the call. 

Redskins/Saints 8:15: Well rested Redskins are 6-0 ATS in this series including last year's 31-34 loss at the Superdome. Revenge is in order for Washington and they've gotten some added talent to deliver again. I like Alex Smith who is accurate and rarely turns the ball over. He will have back Chris Thompson - who broke his leg here last year. And, of course, RB Adrian Peterson would love to have a big game to rub in the face of Sean Payton, whom he had a few run ins with while briefly at New Orleans. Moreover, like WR Jamison Crowder - solid 3rd down back to add to the mix with TE Jordan Reed. New Orleans defense gives up over 100 YPG more than its defensive counterpart - Redskins. Redskins' defense has a formidable front line with Payne, Allen and Settle. Don't believe the return of Ingram will be a huge one like last year against these Redskins. And sure, Drew Brees is a future Hall of Famer and has explosive weaponry at his disposal; however, glad CB Josh Norman is back in the mix to help limit those explosive plays. With both teams presenting sub-par MNF records, we'll go with the better defensive team and better ball control team (33 minutes of offense - 3rd in league) to limit Brees and company on the field. Redskins the call. 

Falcons/Steelers 1:00: This has the making of another shootout. Both defenses hit with injuries and really struggling. Atlanta sorely misses one of the best cover linebackers in the NFL Deion Jones (out) and Roethlisberger won't show mercy with his plethora of weapons at his disposal. On the other hand, Matt Ryan should light it up against a depleted Steelers' secondary. Steelers on a 5-1 O/U run. Falcons 5-1 O/U after allowing more than 30 points. With both defenses ranked in the lower echelon of the NFL, while the offenses can still produce, value with the "over". 

Packers/Lions 1:00: Packers in a double revenge mode after getting swept in this series last year. Note, Aaron Rodgers did not play in either game. Today, line swinging in Detroit's favor on account of Rodgers' top three receivers possibly ruled out; however, like Tom Brady, Rodgers doesn't need big name talent to operate at a high level. His rookie receiving corps of Scantling, St. Brown and Moore are on the same page with him. And besides, Rodgers still has TE Jimmy Graham, some quality RBs in Montgomery, Williams and Jones. And besides, #1 receiver Devonte Adams (calf) may be good to go. Packers solid 5-1 ATS off SU win of two TDs or more. And they heat up in October at 12-5-1 ATS. Packers' defense holding up well and should create good field position for Rodgers to operate. Packers the call. 

Denver/NY 1:00: Tough spot for Denver - coming off heartbreaking MNF loss and having to travel cross country to play a fired up Jets team with heavy hearts and desperate for a win. Jets found out mid week that their DC Kacy Rodgers has serious health issues and that should inspire the Jets' players. Todd Bowles will assume the DC duties and his unit should continue to be disruptive and add to their 10 forced fumbles. Bowles was not happy with his defense after they gave up 503 yards last week to Jacksonville. Denver does have a bruising run game but lack firepower through the air as QB Keenum with only 3 TD passes while throwing 6 INTs. We'll look for his counterpart Darnold to outplay him as he is overdue for a big game since that Week 1 magical day in Detroit. Denver defense not what it used to be in terms of forcing turnovers and getting critical key stops. And Denver sports a very poor 1-8 ATS road mark under HC Joseph. Jets a good October team at 6-0-1 ATS and we'll roll with them here. 

Colts/Patriots 8:20: Short turnaround after Sunday for both teams but Colts got the worst of it. They'll be missing six key players including T.Y. Hilton - Luck's favorite target. Sure, Luck is dangerous off losses as I've noted before; however, Belichick has owned him. Luck sports his worst passing rating (65.1) against New England more so than any other team. And the Colts throw the ball 70% of the time with the worst run game in the NFL at 72 YPG. NE will have Edelman back, Gordon should be fine and Gronk should be good to go. Pat's are 5-0 ATS at home after allow less than 10 points. And they're 14-1 ATS as home favorites vs less than .500 opponent off a SU favorite loss. Patriots the call.

Chiefs/Broncos 8:15: Broncos should be quite competitive in this spot as a home dog on MNF. This will be the best defense Chiefs' QB Mahomes has faced. He'll feel the heat of bookends Von Miller and rookie Chubb. Miller has had monster games vs KC. I do realize the Chiefs have the best offensive weaponry in the NFL, but Denver's defense should rise to the occasion tonight. On the other hand, the Chiefs sport one of the worst defenses in the NFL and Denver has a strong run game behind Lindsay and Freeman (4th best in league). Case Keenum is overdue to get on track after five interceptions thrown through first three weeks. Broncos sport a pretty strong 20-3 SU mark throughout the first four games of the season over the last six years and we'll look for Denver to keep this one tight. KC may be reading too many great things about themselves nowadays and due for a letdown. It could come here for the Chiefs are 2-12 ATS on the road off back to back SU wins vs .500 or greater division opponent. Denver the cover.

Ravens/Steelers 8:20: This series has been extremely competitive where the dog has taken the money in 5 of the last 6. Tonight, Ravens should deliver again. They've covered 5 of the last 6 against the Steelers and are in a triple revenge mode. I do realize top corner Jimmy Smith (suspended) will be missed; however, Ravens, which sport the #1 defense in terms of total yards allowed, will do some sort of bracketing on Antonio Brown.  Baltimore had an extra prep day and catching Pitt (off MNF win) on a short prep week. And I don't like Tomlin's 0-7 ATS mark off a SU win. I do like Joe Flacco's reemergence as a standout NFL QB. He finally has a skill supporting cast he's comfortable with in Crabtree, Brown and Snead. And RB Alex Collins is a horse near the goal line. The Ravens are capitalizing on Red Zone opportunities this year (100%) and that doesn't bode well against a Steelers' defense in the bottom tier in total defense and 31st in Red Zone defense since the beginning of 2017. Ravens the call. 

Saints/Giants 4:25: At first glance, most pundits all over Drew Brees and the explosive offense of the Saints. Seems like logical call with NYG still missing a few key components defensively (OLB Vernon; CB Apple); however, NYG defense held up pretty well first three weeks by allowing just 20.7 PPG. One of the reasons is that NY is moving the football now. Their total revamped offensive line is springing RB Barkely and as a result, Manning is completing around 70% of his passes. Manning finally is surrounded by a complete supporting cast and he's back in good form. New Orleans' defense has been atrocious and Eli should find his range again in the comfortable confines of MetLife Stadium. I do like the fact NY is 10-2 ATS at home off a SU dog win vs an opponent off SU dog win. Home team 8-2-1 ATS last 11 in this series and I'll ride the trend.

Saints/Giants 4:25: This one has the making of a shootout and we'll roll with it. Saints' defense giving up 34.3 PPG and should allow an accurate Eli Manning (72% completions) to torch the blitz happy but porous secondary of the Saints' defense. On the other hand, hard to stop Brees and company from doing their damage. Saints' offense putting up 34.7 PPG and that doesn't bode well for the Giants in that they're having trouble sacking opposing QBs. They have just four on the year. This series has resulted in shootouts in 4 of the last 5 played. "Over" easy. 

Seahawks/Cardinals 4:05: Steve Wilks failing to have the command of his team like Bruce Arians did; therefore, we'll look for the Seahawks to smell more blood as they go for the jugular for the second week in a row. Seahawks are 4-0-1 ATS at Arizona and QB Russell Wilson had some big games vs the Cardinals. In addition, it's surely helping that the run game is starting to cook with Carson (off 100+ rush game). And look for Seahawks' defense to lick their chops against rookie QB Josh Rosen. Arizona offensive line not that bad but Arizona receivers not getting needed separation on routes. Fitzgerald is struggling with hamstring issue and David Johnson cannot get untracked (3.4 YPC). Seahawks add another weapon with Doug Baldwin back and I like it. Seahawks the call. 

Texans/Colts 1:00: Winless Texans have been competitive yet early game setbacks stall them out. We'll look for Watson and his cast of talented skill personnel to rise to the occasion today. Houston is seeking double revenge from getting swept last year in this series. The road team is 5-1-2 ATS. Sure, Colts' Luck is always dangerous off a SU loss but his arm strength is not where it should be and Houston's underachieving defense should finally take advantage of it here. Texans 13-3 ATS in Week 4 and should finally get in the win column. 

Vikings/Rams 8:20: I've been riding the Rams all year (3-0 ATS) but will fade them in this spot. Vikings hungry off a loss and clearly overlooked the Bills. Vikings were a mere 3-14 SU vs AFC East prior to last Sunday; therefore, the Bills shocker was not quite so shocking. Tonight, look for Minnesota to come in with laser focus. Vikings are 20-7 ATS vs an opponent off a SU win and 11-1 ATS vs an opponent off a double-digit SU win; furthermore, 8-0 ATS vs a team .700 or greater off ATS win. Rams struggle on Thursdays at 2-9 ATS and are just 1-4 ATS at home with revenge under McVay. Remember, Rams were rolling last year with four straight double-digit wins before running into the Vikings in a 24-7 loss. Sure, Griffen is a big loss and RB Cook is still questionable; however, bigger losses for the Rams with lockdown corners - Talib and Peters out. And let's not forget that K Zuerlein is out. Value with Vikings, especially now that the line moved to +7.5.

Steelers/Bucs 8:15: Bucs' Fitzpatrick tearing it up and will most likely continue slinging the football tonight. Though, TB run game struggling (2.7 YPC) and should eventually be their downfall. Pitt defense should engage in exotic blitz activity while paying special attention to Evans and Desean Jackson - two key TB receivers. Pitt news about Tomlin losing locker room we've heard before and won't put a whole lot of weight in to that. What I will put weight into is that he's 11-2 ATS as a road dog vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. And Roethlisberger still has the arm and some serious weaponry including a James Washington to add to the already potent arsenal. TB defense is banged up and 31st defending the pass. Pitt is 12-8 ATS as a road dog on MNF and still hungry. Pitt the call. 

Dallas/Seattle 4:25: Grabbing the desperate for a win Seahawks at a virtual pick here. Seattle has the 12th man backing them in arguably the loudest stadium in the NFL; moreover, LB Bobby Wagner (groin) will be back on the field. Lockett continues to impress and picking up the slack for the injured Baldwin. QB Wilson has been sacked way too much and the blitz happy Cowboys are surely licking their chops. But last week, Wilson moved the offense when picking up the tempo. That could surely be a viable option today against the over-pursuing Cowboys front seven. Sure, Cowboys looked impressive last week against fading Giants but should underachieve under Garrett here. Seattle is 16-5 ATS in Week 3, and 10-4-2 ATS off a SU loss. Carroll will find a way to win here. 

Chargers/Rams 4:05: Hard to go against the Rams, which we've had for two weeks and I'm not jumping ship here. Rams' offense is cooking with addition of WR Cooks this year. Yet another speed weapon to add to an already dangerous offensive machine. And defensively, now that Donald has gotten into game shape, he's due to blow up immobile QB Rivers. SD's defense allows 29 PPG and DE Bosa not near ready to play. Rams should rev up the engine  around the third quarter again in another win and cover. 

Colts/Eagles 1:00: I know, the Wentz return is fueling overwhelming support on the Eagles. And surely the Colts have not been a good team off SU wins; however, with the change in coaching staff - Frank Reich - can reset the culture. And the former Eagles' OC surely knows what Eagles' play caller - Pederson likes to run and his tendencies. Colts' defense stepped up its game last week vs Washington and should continue vs a rusty Wentz. Moreover, T Jason Peters (quad) not at his best, the Eagles' receiving corps banged up, and Ajayi and Sproles fighting through injuries. Colts' Luck in rhythm with underrated WR Hilton and getting protection. Colts are 4-0 ATS at Philadelphia and 4-1 ATS in Week 3. New era, new Colts as they cover here. 

Bengals/Panthers 1:00: Bengals off a physical battle with Baltimore should be in store for a tough outing here. Panthers are dangerous off a loss (4-0 ATS) and 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3 or more vs an opponent off a double-digit SU win. Moreover, Rivera is a sweet 7-0 ATS at home off a SU/ATS loss vs an opponent off a division game. Bengals have some skill players banged up and should suffer first loss here.

Jets/Browns 8:20: Both defenses pretty solid. Jets have an underrated defense that's allowing just 4.9 yards per play and under 300 yards per game. Browns' QB Taylor takes good care of the ball but quite conservative at times and that should carry over in limiting points here. As for the Browns' defense, it's rock solid. DC Greg Williams runs the exotic fire zone/zone blitz schemes that drive QBs bananas. Veteran QB Brees was disrupted by the Browns blitz schemes last week and Darnold may be in for the same treatment.  Bro1wns have gone "under" in 11 of their last 14 home games. They're also 1-8 O/U as a favorite of 3 or less. "Under" the call. 

Seahawks/Bears 8:15: On the surface, this game is not looking good for Seattle with a host of injuries and six key players unable to practice Thursday. But make no mistake, Pete Carroll finds a way to stick around in these games and we'll back him tonight. Mychal Kendricks was a great acquisition regardless of the insider trading (he admitted it and paid restitution) and he'll help fill the void of Wright (knee) and Wagner (groin). And sure, Seattle's #1 receiver Baldwin is out; however, ex Bear - Marshall and speedster Tyler Lockett can pick up the slack. Highly underrated QB Russell Wilson shines brightly in prime time unlike his counterpart Trubisky - who folded like a chair down the stretch last week at Green Bay. Seahawks 11-2 ATS off a SU non-division loss vs less than .500 foe. Seahawks are 8-3-1 ATS on MNF; moreover, they're 22-4-1 ATS on prime time under Carroll. Sure, Mack is awesome and the Bears' running backs pose a problem, but Seattle will figure it out and deliver. Seahawks 4-1 ATS at Chicago. 

Ravens/Bengals 8:20: While the Ravens aren't mentioning it, in the back of their minds exist the heartbreaking last minute defeat last year in Baltimore to the Bengals. Revenge is in order and Baltimore should be fired up. They shut out Cincinnati 20-0 in Paul Brown Stadium last September and have reloaded a defense that limited Buffalo to 2.8 yards per play last week. Yes, Cincinnati is much more explosive offensively and will be competitive. Offensively, Flacco finally has a receiving corps that can get open. Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead all got the needed separation for TD receptions against the Buffalo secondary. Bengals' Burfict, a key component in stopping the run, will miss four more games due to suspension. Ravens 3-0-1 ATS on Thursdays while the dog in this series is 7-1 ATS. Ravens the call. 

Ravens/Bengals 8:20: This series has gone "under" in 4 of the last 5 matchups including last September in Cincinnati. Bengals are 0-4 O/U on Thursday, 0-5 O/U on Week 2 and 3-7 O/U in their last 10 home games. Ravens' defense coming off a complete knockout of Buffalo - allowing just 153 total yards. Sure, Bengals' offensive skill players are some of the best in the league but question marks arise along the offensive line. As for Baltimore, Flacco has had some horrible games at Paul Brown Stadium (3-6 SU / 58% completions, 6:13 TD:INT ratio). A healthy Dunlap and Atkins tend to create problems for QBs. "Under" the call.  

Redskins/Cardinals 4:25: Gruden overdue to get a win in his season opener. Redskins have lost five straight season openers including four with Gruden in charge. Much of that losing had to do with Kirk Cousins turnover problems.  Enter Alex Smith as the new QB. He has been on of the most winning and accurate passers over his tenure in KC. And he sports strong numbers on opening day and early in the year. Moreover, Thompson and TE Jordan Reed are now healthy targets. And RB Adrian Peterson looked like his old self in the pre-season and should give Smith run support. Defensively, the Redskins bolstered their defensive line with #1 draft choice Payne from Alabama and Tim Settle from Virginia Tech. They'll surely help shore up the run stop unit against Arizona's star RB Johnson who's set to return today. Redskins a bit more along in development with players and continuity in coaching staff. We'll look for Washington to deliver.

Seahawks/Broncos 4:25: Look for the Seahawks to get out of the gate strong this year after a disappointing 2017 season. Seahawks addressed a few key issues over the summer including rebuilding the departed Legion of Boom. Shaq Griffin was a great draft choice as he will start at outside backer. He should do well with underrated man in the middle Bobby Wagner as a mentor. And with six time pro bowl safety Earl Thomas starting today, I feel good about the Seahawks' defense again. And yes, Carroll has some studs on the first line of defense with Clark, Reed, Stephens, Jordan healthy with quality depth brought in from the off-season and through the draft. Someone will emerge! Offensively, the offensive line has had consistency for a change under new Offensive Line Coach - Mike Solari; consequently, one of the best QB's in the NFL Russell Wilson should be firing away. And the exciting RB Chris Carson is back healthy after breaking leg early last season. And let's not forget about the Seahawks' receiving targets led by Doug Baldwin. Seahawks under the radar and I'm looking for them to deliver against Case Keenum and company. Seattle is 5-2 ATS in Denver and I'm taking the points.

Texans/Patriots 1:00: Patriots have virtually owned the Texans until last year when QB Watson went off. Watson (ACL) is back in the fray and healthy to give New England's defense fits. Sure, the Patriots' defense was upgraded this offseason and Hightower is back; however, Texans' best receiver - Hopkins is a threat to any corner NE puts on him. And add Will Fuller (good to go) and the stakes get higher for even better offensive production. NE, on the other hand, has Gronkowski and Hogan as premier go to weapons along with Burkhead out of the backfield. But I like the fact the Texans finally have health on the defensive side of the ball with Watt, Mercilus and Clowney all on the field together to shake things up. With a pretty well rounded secondary, Texans are in good shape to compete here. With Patriots 1-4 ATS in Week 1, Texans have the value.

Falcons/Eagles 8:20: Nick Foles has that Jekyll and Hyde performance level in which when he is good, he is really good; however, when he's bad, he's very bad. Unfortunately for Philly, he's in the Mr. Hyde mode now coming off a disastrous pre-season. He'll be without two of his top four wideouts, including Jeffery. And protection issues which reared their ugly head in pre-season could lead to Vic Beasley and company getting out of the gate with some sacks while the Falcons' dangerous LB Deion Jones eyes down Foles. Falcons have added Calvin Ridley to an already deep WR corps led by Julio Jones. Look for Ryan to establish rhythm, especially with key Philly LB Nigel Bradham suspended. Falcons looking for revenge from last year's playoff loss and have a good situation on Thursday Night (7-1 ATS) to get it. 

Falcons/Eagles 8:20: Heavy under trends in this one with two very good defenses. And Atlanta OC Sarkisian is now 7-19 O/U including in the pre-season with Atlanta. Injuries for the Eagles' receiving corps along with QB Foles unable to establish a rhythm in pre-season should lead to sluggish offensive start. We'll stay "under". 

Eagles/Patriots 6:30: Patriots opened at -5' with Gronk (concussion) inevitably waiting to be cleared; however, heavy action came in on the Eagles at some casinos; consequently, line dropped to -4' and should settle there. Bettors are getting caught up in the stats to where the Patriots - as a favorite - are not dominant winners in the Super Bowl with Brady and Belichick; as a matter of fact, they're just 2-4 ATS in the favorite role. Nevertheless, I'm not falling for the bait and going with the greatest QB of all time and his future Hall of Fame coach. Again, you look at the stats and it becomes worrisome if you're a Patriots' backer. Defensively, they're in the bottom tier of the league in giving up yards. A closer look, however, will tell you they're in the top tier in points allowed. Yes, they bend but don't break - tough in the red zone and limit explosive plays. Patriots find ways of taking away your strength, creating mistakes and let the #1 offense do its thing in a near flawless way when needed. Patriots' Brady at his best when the moment is at its greatest. Moment may be too big for Foles, however. We'll look for Patriots' defense to take away the Eagles' strong run game and put the pressure on Foles - similar to what they did late against Bortles - resulting in 0-6 in Jacksonville's last six third down conversions. We'll look for Patriots' machine to keep rolling and cover here. 

Vikings/Eagles 6:40: Both of these teams are similar in offensive efficiency, defense and special teams; therefore, got to go with the home team in the NFL Conference Championship game which covered eight straight. And the dog in this series is 4-1 ATS; moreover, Minnesota is a mere 1-4 ATS in Philadelphia. Yes, it will depend on Foles managing the game effectively. He did it well vs Atlanta completing 23 of 30 and the Falcons' secondary is pretty good. I do realize Minnesota has the #1 defense across the board but do face one of the best offensive lines with three Pro Bowlers. And no question, Vikings' QB Keenum did an amazing job leading Minnesota to this game. I do have faith in the respectable secondary of corners Mills and Darby plus safeties McLeod and Jenkins. With these teams closely resembling each other, got to go with the home dog.

Jaguars/Patriots 3:05: Been riding Patriots most of year and they continue to do their thing: force other team in to making more mistakes while they capitalize on turnovers and turn efficient play. Sunday, I project it to be difficult for them though. I was all over Jacksonville last week and I'm jumping on them here. The Jaguars' defense was outstanding during the regular season and got them to the playoffs. Last week, the secondary was toasted on explosive plays which made the score a lot closer than it should have been. Sure, Steelers' Antonio Brown and Bryant are vertical threats that toasted the Jaguars' normally sound secondary; however, I don't believe NE's only speed vertical threat - Cooks - has that capability. I do realize that Gronk is a whole different animal in a TE roaming the secondary but Jacksonville has athleticism and speed to limit him; after all, Jax did grab 21 INTs for the season and were 3rd in the NFL in guarding TEs. What Tennessee's defense had a weakness on - covering backs out of backfield - and NE surely exploited it with Lewis and White, Jacksonville has the perimeter speed and coverage skill to track them down. And let's not forget about the dominant defensive line which helped sack the QB 55 times on the year. Most importantly, I'm looking for another sound performance out of Bortles to NOT LOSE the game as opposed to manage it successfully like he did last week. Surely Fournette takes some of that pressure off him. Jacksonville and the generous amount of points the call. 

Jaguars/Steelers 1:05 At first glance, revenge from the earlier season demolition at Pittsburgh fuels the Steelers; however, the fact of the matter is the Jags have given the Steelers fits for some time. Jaguars are 12-5 ATS in this series and 12-5 ATS in Pittsburgh. Steelers' Roethlisberger, who was almost sent into retirement in the earlier season debacle, most likely will be instructed by Haley to pound the rock with Bell; after all, Jags may be #1 against the pass but yielding vs the run (21st in the league). Nevertheless, we'll look for Jacksonville, to be ready for that and shouldn't be too worried about Antonio Brown (calf) who still is not at his most dangerous because of the injury. Offensively, QB Bortles may be a liability passing the ball but does find seams to run successfully and has 1000+ yard rusher Fournette. And without Ryan Shazier manning the middle, the Steelers' defense has not been the same since. Value with the Jaguars for dog in series covered 9 of 10 times.

Falcons/Eagles 4:35: Had the Falcons as the dog last week as my top play but fading them here. Eagles getting no respect as the #1 seed. Sure, Foles is no Wentz but he has a very strong supporting cast to carry him here. If the Falcons have a weakness, it's their pass rush; consequently, Atlanta will have to use blitzes to generate pressure and look for Foles to be schooled to check down to Ertz, Ajayi or Blount. And Algholor and Jeffery can be difference makers too. On the other hand, the Eagles have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL and I look for them to exploit the weak link of the Falcons' offensive line - Garland and Schweitzer. Matt Ryan under pressure has completed a meager 42% of his passes. I do realize Julio Jones had some huge games vs the Eagles in the past but will look for DC Schwartz to bracket him with a now experienced corner Mills and veteran safety Jenkins. And don't anticipate the Falcons to fuel the pass game with their strong run game. Eagles' run-stop-unit the best in the NFL (79.2 YPG). Falcons are 0-6 SU when unable to score more than 20 points and I believe the Eagles get it done here. 

Bills/Jaguars 1:00: Tried to make a case for taking the Bills and the points today; however, with RB McCoy, the offensive engine of Buffalo, running on a sprained ankle against a top tier defense of Jacksonville, the Bills should be forced into a one dimensional offense. And that doesn't bode well for a mediocre, at best, passing game with QB Taylor at the helm. Taylor was a solid QB for most of the season but with McCoy leading the charge. Surely replacements Tolbert or Murphy are not going to pick up the slack. Remember, last season, McCoy was instrumental in Buffalo's win running roughshod on the Jacksonville defense, including a 75 yard scamper. We'll look for Jacksonville's RB Fournette to carry the load and wear the weary Bills' defense down over the stretch of the game. 

Falcons/Rams 8:15: Pretty good value with the defending NFC Champ. Sure, their offense hasn't gelled under OC Sarkisian like it did under Shanahan; nevertheless, Atlanta won 6 of their last 8 games. Falcons' road ledger may seem week at 1-5 ATS but remember, they were favorites in all but two of those games.  Falcons' run-stop-unit has been strong against the run down the December stretch holding their last four opponents to under 100 yards rushing. Falcons are 7-1 SU when holding opponents to less than 100 yards rushing. Rams' RB Gurley had an MVP regular season but believe the run-stop-unit of Atlanta led by one of the most underrated linebackers in the NFL - Deion Jones, can limit Gurley's outside zone and stretch plays. And the Falcons' corners Trufant and Alford are capable of holding their own with the Rams most dangerous WRs' Kupp and Woods. On the other hand, give the advantage to veteran QB Matt Ryan vs Jeff Goff. Goff had a super year surrounded by great talent and coaching. Matt Ryan, however, has the gamesmanship for the big game and a pair of dangerous receivers in Julio Jones and Sanu. With respect to C Trumaine Johnson, he's no match for Jones. And Sanu at 6'2" is a mismatch vs 5'8" Robey Coleman. Furthermore, Falcons' special teams solid and won't be beat by the well managed Rams' special teams. Rams at home were not dominant against upper echelon teams this season and I'm taking the points with Atlanta. 

Titans/Chiefs 4:30: A bit too many points from a team struggling defensively and that hasn't won a home playoff game in over two decades. The loss of their S Berry and top pass rusher Ford dropped the Chiefs to 24th in total defense for the season. Titans can run the football with Derrick Henry while Mariota gradually getting his dangerous legs back after a hamstring issue midway through the season. He also has a solid go-to target in TE Delanie Walker and deep threat Corey Davis overdue for a big game. Defensively, Titans respectable under DC LeBeau. LeBeau should have speedy Adoree Jackson on KC vertical threat Hill with All Pro S Kevin Byard on top. And Tennessee was strong against the run (88 YPG) and we'll look for them to limit NFL rushing leader Kareem Hunt. Road team 7-1 ATS in this series and Tennessee has played well at Arrowhead at 5-1 ATS including an outright win there last season. Tennessee the call. 

Steelers/Texans 4:30: Steelers 6-22 O/U on the road and 1-10 O/U as a traveler against a team with a losing home record. Offensively challenged Houston, 2-7 O/U vs the AFC North, has a scoring range of just 7 to 16 PPG in 6 of their last 7 games. Savage (concussion) was surely not the answer to get the ball in the end zone and Yates is every bit as bad. Steelers' defense despite the absence of versatile MLB Shazier is still stingy allowing points against these low tier teams. They'll have C Joe Haden (leg) back to add depth to the secondary. On the flip end, Houston won't have to worry about the ever explosive vertical threat of Antonio Brown (out). Texans should go 5-14 O/U in December.

Atlanta/Tampa Bay 8:30: This series has gone "over" in three straight. With a few points of value, I expect another offensive display to push this one "over". TB lacks pressure on the QB and sacks; moreover, TB sack leader McCoy ruled out which will allow QB Matt Ryan more time to lock in with WR Jones and company. TB ranks dead last vs the pass. On the other hand, TB QB Winston has some weapons including Desean Jackson, Mike Evans to create explosive plays. Falcons are 5-1 O/U on MNF and 10-0-1 O/U vs teams below .500. "Over" it is. 

Falcons/Bucs 8:30: TB not as bad as record indicates. Sure, they're a major underachiever this year; however, they've been in virtually every game at home with the exception of Carolina where QB Winston threw two costly interceptions. TB does have surrounding talent for Winston, including Desean Jackson who has had some huge MNF games in his six career appearances (690 yards w/ 3 TDs). And Mike Evans is a matchup problem for most corners and WR Godwin is an emerging talent. Atlanta is bit banged up on the defensive end including edge rusher Clayborn (hamstring). I do realize the Buc's defense gives up many yards through the air and not having top rusher McCoy nor LB David will not help matters. Falcons won't have Coleman (concussion) running rampant through the TB defense as he did in first matchup this season. RB Freeman is surely capable of thrashing them too; however, we'll look for TB to nut up tonight. Bucs are 7-0 ATS as a home dog on MNF and we'll take the touchdown.

Dolphins/Bills 1:00: Bills got swept in this series last year including a rare loss at New Era Field on Christmas Eve; however, unlikely to happen today in freezing temperature in Buffalo. Miami sports a money burning 48-67 ATS mark in December. And let's remember they're last two games were at home where they are quite comfortable; however, on the road, Miami has been outscored by 91 points as a traveler in 5 games this year. Buffalo's RB McCoy is running well and Tyrod Taylor will be back behind center. Dolphins coming off a huge win as I projected last Monday. Dolphins 1-6 ATS off a MNF game and should lay an egg here. 

Chargers/Chiefs 8:25: Like the Chargers offense, defense and special teams balance since that disastrous 0-4 start. Chargers have been in every game this season and now rolling on both sides of the ball. QB Rivers is having one of his best years primarily because of a healthy Kennan Allen - who is virtually unstoppable (547 yards/ 4 TDs last 4 weeks). The Chargers' offensive line is blocking well and consequently, RB Gordon is gaining ground while TE Hunter Henry has emerged as the new go-to-guy. With KC deficient in the secondary without S Berry, loose canon CB Peters, and hobbling corner Murray (ankle), the Chiefs' already shaky defense becomes shakier. On the other hand, the Chargers' defense is rolling with a fierce pass rush and opportunistic secondary (15 INTs). They've given up the second fewest points in the NFL. The weather is decent in KC so the fair weathered Chargers should hold up well. And keep in mind that the road team is 5-0 ATS in this series. Furthermore, Chargers are 4-1 ATS in KC and have same season revenge in mind. Chargers 11-2 ATS off SU/ATS win with division revenge. 

Broncos/Colts 8:25: Two teams going nowhere this postseason as they play for the customary "pride" that losers play for this time of year. Denver has not been good on the road. In six road games, they've averaged 16.2 PPG and have been a turnover mess. Sure, they plan to stick to the formula of last week's shutout win over the Jets which entails running the football and establishing good field position without risking interceptions. The Colts do have three rookies in their secondary and defensively rank in the bottom of the league in yards and points allowed; however, Broncos' QB Siemian has failed to respond on the road even given favorable matchups. On the other hand, the Broncos do have the #1 defense in the NFL in terms of yards allowed and face a pedestrian offense ranked in the bottom tier of the NFL in virtually every category. Sure, T.Y. Hilton is a vertical threat but negated by the Broncos' lockdown corners. Broncos have heavy "under" trends while on the road and I'm not going to fade them here. A few points of "under" value added to a high scoring series but without the offensive firepower this season.

Patriots/Dolphins 8:30: I realize the Dolphins have been a prime time disaster; however, at a closer glance, remember they did make a competitive game against Oakland at HOME in Week 9. Dolphins getting a bit more than I anticipated based on their crapping themselves at night. Tonight, however, Gronkowski (suspended) won't be running rampant through their secondary. And defensively, C Malcolm Butler (ankle) may sit to rest for the big showdown with Pittsburgh next week. Dolphins are a strong 6-2 ATS at home against teams with a winning road record. Patriots have also underachieved on the road against teams with a losing home record. And considering the home team is 10-1 ATS in this series, some value is with Miami.