I'm betting that desperation, excellent defense and fine coaching will keep the Heat inside of this large number in this Game 5 playoff matchup. Miami is eliminated by a loss.

The Heat have held Boston to an average of 102.3 points during the past three games. I regard the Heat's Eric Spoelstra as an elite coach.

The Celtics will be without their star big man, Kristaps Porzingis. He's out with a calf injury.

Miami lost by 14 points in the last game. The Heat shot just 41 percent from the floor, 27 percent from 3-point range and only got to shoot 12 free throws. I expect the Heat to shoot better this game.

Down 2-0 in the series and fresh from hearing Minnesota fans screaming, "Wolves in four! Wolves in four," I expect a monster effort here from the Suns.

Phoenix won all three regular season games against the Timberwolves. The Suns won those games by an average of 15.7 points.

But the Suns have struggled against the Timberwolves during the first two games of this playoff series with both games being in Minnesota. Now, though, the Suns are back in Phoenix in must-win mode.

Devin Booker and Bradley Beal are overdue for big performances especially Booker.

I've never seen Joel Embiid more mad than after the Knicks', 104-101, Game 2 win this past Monday.

Embiid has good reason to be fuming: The Knicks stole the game. The referees blew several calls in the final seconds that cost the 76ers that game as the home Knicks scored eight straight points in the final 30 seconds to pull out the victory.

That puts the Knicks up 2-0 in the series. But now the scene shifts to Philadelphia where the fired-up 76ers will be in Circle-The-Wagons mode in this must-win spot.

Embiid and emerging star Tyrese Maxey will have had two full days to get healthy. The next game isn't until Sunday. So the 76ers will be laying it all on the line here. I want them going for me.

Can Boston just turn it off and on? I'll take this many points with Miami to find out.

Since clinching home-court, the Celtics have covered only once going 1-3-2 ATS. Their straight-up victories during their final six regular season games were by one point against the Kings and wins against the Trail Blazers, Hornets and Wizards whose combined record is 57-189. Boston lost by 13 points to the Bucks and by nine points to the Knicks during their two other games. 

It has been a week since the Celtics last played. 

No such rust, or lack of intensity, with the Heat. Miami had to defeat the Bulls, 112-91, this past Friday in a play-in tournament elimination game to get to this series. The Heat won that game despite not having Jimmy Butler, who remains out.

The Heat made the playoffs as a No. 8 seed last season. They proceeded to win the Eastern Conference, including taking out the Celtics.

No Butler, but the Heat still are the Heat. That means excellent coaching, big-game experience, tough defense and both physical and mental toughness.

I know why the Kings are a road favorite against the Pelicans in this loser-goes-home play-in game. New Orleans won't have injured Zion Williamson, the Pelicans are off two losses to the Lakers and the Kings looked great in eliminating the Warriors, 118-94, at home this past Tuesday.

But these reasons aren't valid enough to change my mind that New Orleans is better than Sacramento and will prove it here. It's an added bonus the Pelicans are home and in an underdog role.

Yes, the Pelicans are off consecutive defeats to the Lakers. They have trouble matching up to LA. Sacramento doesn't have LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Pelicans play with far more confidence against the Kings. They are 5-0 vs Sacramento this season, including a 12-point road victory a week ago.

The Pelicans know how to win without Williamson. They've done it before. This isn't to downplay Williamson's absence, but the Kings have their own injury woes. Starter Kevin Huerter is out for the season with a shoulder injury and sixth man Malik Monk is sidelined with a knee injury.

The Kings smashed the Warriors. But even with that victory, Sacramento is just 5-7 in its last 12 games.

A big reason why the Pelicans are 5-0 against the Kings is superior defense. New Orleans ranks eighth in scoring defense, seventh in defensive field goal percentage and No. 2 in 3-point defense. Sacramento, by contrast, is 17th in scoring defense, 21st in defensive field goal percentage and 29th in 3-point defense.

There's a reason the Bucks and other NBA teams didn't want to draw Philadelphia in the playoffs. The 76ers are the hottest team in the league winning and covering each of their last eight games. This includes a four-point win at Miami on April 4. The 76ers have covered the past nine times they've been favored.

Superstar center Joel Embiid returned this month after being out since February. Philadelphia is 6-0 SU and ATS in the six April games Embiid has played. It's not just Embiid. Tyrese Maxey shot up Miami's zone defense averaging 27.3 points and 8.3 rebounds against the Heat this season.

Miami has a history of stepping up come playoff time. But that perception doesn't fit this season, especially against a 76ers team the Heat have trouble matchup up against. The Heat rank 26th in scoring. They can easily beat the Raptors, but they don't have it in a step-up playoff game such as this one.

Surprised the Bulls opened such a short favorite against the Wizards?

Don't be. The spot sets up extremely well for Washington. The Bulls played last night in Detroit. They were intense, highly-motivated and routed the Pistons, 127-105. That victory was significant in that it clinched the No. 9 seed for Chicago and allowed the Bulls to claim home court edge against the 10th-seeded Hawks. That was what the Bulls were aiming for since that's the best they could finish during the regular season.

So this road game against the Wizards is meaningless. It's also Chicago's fourth game in six days and the Bulls will be playing without rest - at least the Bulls who Billy Donovan chooses to play. As the Bulls coach could be sitting out his key starters, or at least heavily cutting back their minutes in anticipation of the playoffs. 

The Wizards are 15-65. This is their chance to at least finish their home schedule with a victory. Washington is 3-2-1 ATS in its last six home games, including upsetting the Bucks 10 days ago.

(Update: The favorite has flipped since I released this play early in the morning. Still, while some line value has been lost, I expect the Wizards to soundly win this game. The Bulls already have ruled out Andre Drummond and Ayo Dosunmu. DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso are questionable.) 

It's a bonus if Cade Cunningham is available to play. He's questionable after missing the last three games due to knee soreness.

Regardless of his status, though, this is too many points for the 76ers to be laying this late in the season when they carry a high fatigue rating and need to be careful in doling out minutes to their starters.

It's the 76ers' third game in four days and fourth matchup in six days.

The 76ers nearly were upset by the Spurs in their last game this past Sunday, needing overtime to win.

This is Philadelphia's first home game in a week having played its last three games on the road.

Joel Embiid is questionable after missing the Spurs game. If he does suit up, the 76ers are likely to be careful in monitoring his minutes. Same with Tyrese Maxey, who scored 52 points against the Spurs, but logged 54 minutes. The 76ers could get Tobias Harris and Kyle Lowry back, but aren't expected to have De'Anthony Melton and Robert Covington.

By virtue of winning six of their last eight games, the Hawks have clinched a play-in berth. So they don't have huge incentive here.

The Nuggets, on the other hand, are going for No. 1 seeding in the West trailing the Timberwolves by half-a-game for that distinction. Denver won't play again until Tuesday. That should ensure a strong, all-out effort especially since the Nuggets are off a 102-100 loss to the Clippers on Thursday.
 
Denver's previous loss was to the Timberwolves at home eight days ago. The Nuggets followed that defeat by burying the Cavaliers at home by 29 points. 

The Hawks haven't beaten the Nuggets in Denver since 2019.

I understand the Kings just blew a 21-point lead in suffering a 120-109 road loss to the Knicks Thursday night.

But this is a great spot to back the Kings - and yes it's against the Celtics.

This is Boston's first game since clinching home-court throughout the playoffs. The Celitcs will talk about staying motivated, but they can't help relaxing and taking their foot off the gas now that their regular season goal has been achieved.

Boston's priority is to be cautious with its stars. No reason to risk injury, or burn any of them out, now that the rest of the regular season has become meaningless.

The Kings are an underrated adversary.

Even with that defeat to the Knicks, the Kings are 21-17 on the road. They are trying to chase down the Pelicans and Suns for the sixth playoff spot in the West.

Sacramento has quietly, below the radar, picked up its defense holding 11 of its last 13 opponents to 109 or fewer points. During their last 16 games, the Kings have lost by more than eight points just twice.

Sparked by Joel Embiid's return after missing nine weeks due to knee surgery, the 76ers beat the Thunder, 109-105, at home on Tuesday. The 76ers are going to be careful with Embiid. This is going to be a much tougher task for the 76ers playing the Heat in Miami. It's Philadelphia's fourth straight different venue. 

Erik Spoelstra has Miami peaking again at the right time. The Heat have won four of their last five games, including the past three.
 
The Heat should be pointing to this matchup as they go on the road following this game for their next three games facing the Rockets, Pacers and Hawks. 

Terry Rozier has been hot for Miami averaging 27.6 points in his last three games. The Heat's rotation gets a boost with the return of Kevin Love. The 76ers have Embiid back, but may be minus two important cogs, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris. Both are questionable.

The Hawks are riding high after an important, 113-101, win against the Bulls two days ago. The Hawks are at the Mavericks on Thursday night in a challenging matchup.

But first the Hawks need to take care of business at home against the lowly Pistons.

This is Atlanta's fifth game in eight days. The Hawks remain without superstar Trae Young. So I find value in a point spread this high to back Detroit.

The Pistons are much more respectable with Cade Cunningham in the lineup. He's averaging 22.7 points and 7.5 assists.

Detroit has a winning ATS mark in its last eight road games and has played the Hawks tough during its two meetings this season, losing by six points each time.

The timing is right for the Bulls to cover this road number - if not pull off a surprising upset.

The Timberwolves return home fat and happy after an impressive, 111-98, road win against the defending champion Nuggets Friday night.

The Bulls enter this matchup off an embarrassing, 125-108, road loss to the Nets Friday night.

Chicago defeated Minnesota earlier in the season. The Bulls can do it again. Even with that loss to the Nets, the Bulls are 9-5 SU and ATS in their last 14 away games.

The Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS the past five times they have been favored by eight or more points. There's a chance, too, Minnesota could be minus Rudy Gobbert and Anthony Edwards. Both are questionable with injuries.

The teams met just six days ago in LA. The Lakers won a wild, 150-145, shootout. But it wasn't so much the Lakers winning that irked the Pacers, it was how Los Angeles prevailed.

There were 31 fouls called on the Pacers in that game. The Lakers made 38 of 43 free throws. Only 14 fouls were whistled against the Lakers. The Pacers shot just 16 free throws, which were 27 fewer than the Lakers!

The Pacers are doubly mad after losing by 26 points to the Bulls on the road this past Wednesday. They are home now and rested having been idle the past two days.

The Lakers are very much in a situational disadvantage and not just because of the short revenge angle. This marks LA's third game in four days and fourth in six days. It's also the Lakers' third consecutive road game.

There's also the possibility of LeBron James not playing. He's questionable with a sore ankle.

Notice the low total here. It's justified. Houston is the top defensive team in the nation. Texas A&M also is strong defensively. The pace is going to be extremely slow. It means points are going to be hard to come by. So grabbing double-digits is the way to go especially given the line value and various edges that are in favor of the underdog Aggies.

Texas A&M has picked up its offense at the right time averaging 90.2 points in its last five games. The Aggies rank third in the nation in offensive rebounding and are a better free throw shooting team than Houston.

It takes good guards to beat Houston. Texas A&M has that. The Aggies also are healthier than the banged-up Cougars.

The two teams played each other this season. The game was played in Houston and the Cougars won, 70-66, failing to cover as a 7-point favorite. Now the game is at a neutral site and the point spread is much higher.

The Aggies have proven themselves against some elite opponents beating Tennessee, Kentucky and Iowa State. The Cougars just met Iowa State in the finals of the Big 12 Tournament championship game and lost big, 69-41.

I have tremendous respect for Creighton. The Bluejays are strong on both sides of the ball and have an elite defensive center in Ryan Kalkbrenner. But I'm going to ride Oregon's momentum. The Ducks are at their peak, have a tremendous coach, Dana Altman, and a dominant center, N'Faly Dante.

Sparked by Dante stepping up the past few weeks as he's gotten fully healthy, the Ducks won the Pac-12 tournament - beating Arizona in the semifinals - and then knocking off South Carolina by 14 points in their opening NCAA Tournament game.

This game holds special meaning for Altman, a native of Nebraska who spent 16 seasons coaching Creighton leading the Bluejays to seven NCAA Tourney appearances.

Akron couldn't handle Creighton's height and shot poorly in losing to the Bluejays in the first round. Creighton, though, is stepping up in class with Oregon.

The Bluejays have to contend not only with Dante, but Oregon's hot-shooting guards. Dante missed the start of the season, but he's averaged 19.9 points on 84.1 percent shooting from the floor during his last seven games.

Florida Atlantic was ranked as high as No. 7 this season in The Associated Press Top 25 before slipping out. The Owls were superior to Northwestern back then and they still are much the better team especially given the Wildcats' injury situation.
 
The Owls reached the semifinals of the NCAA Tournament last season before losing to San Diego State by one point on a buzzer beater. Florida Atlantic returns that experience and is in an angry mood after a stunning upset loss to Temple in the American Athletic Conference Tournament. 

Northwestern was fortunate to even be picked for the NCAA Tournament. I have Florida Atlantic ranked way ahead of the Wildcats in my power ratings. Not helping matters for Northwestern is injuries. Senior guard Ty Berry is out. He's the Wildcats' fourth leading scorer and center Matthew Nicholson is dealing with a knee injury.

Tremendous kudos for North Carolina State to win the ACC Conference Tournament as a No. 10 seed. The Wolfpack accomplished that by winning five games in five days. Great feat, but reality catches up to North Carolina State here. The NCAA Tournament committee did the Wolfpack no favors by making them play in Pittsburgh on Thursday.

Grant McCasland continued a recent Texas Tech tradition of strong coaching. The Red Raiders were riding a hot streak until running into second-ranked Houston in the Big 12 Conference Tournament semifinals.

The Big 12 may be the best conference in the country this season, while it was a down year for the ACC.

Some teams aren't happy to have to settle for playing in the NIT. Appalachian State isn't one of those teams. The Mountaineers are excited to compete and even more excited to go against a bigger name in-state school, Wake Forest, a team they have never beaten. It's a quick 80-mile trip for the Mountaineers to meet the Demon Deacons in Winston-Salem, N.C.

"Playing in the postseason is a huge deal,'' Appalachian State coach Dustin Kerns was quoted as saying. "This is another stair taken upwards in the evolution of our program. No one on our team has ever played in the NIT, so this will be a great experience for everyone."

Appalachian State has the motivation and is good enough to upset Wake Forest straight-up. The Mountaineers rank 30th defensively and fourth in defensive field goal percentage. Each team averages 78 points a game. The Mountaineers are the stronger defensive team.

The Mountaineers can contain Wake Forest's pick-and-rolls and they have elite rim protector Justin Abson, who was the NCAA's fourth-leading shot-blocker. The Mountaineers defeated James Madison, a team getting a lot of love in the NCAA Tournament, twice this season.

The Mountaineers have won 16 of their last 18 games. Wake Forest is 2-4 SU and ATS in its last six games. Appalachian State and Wake Forest last met two years ago and Wake Forest won by one point.

No Donovan Mitchell for the road Cavaliers. But that doesn't justify this high of a line.

Cleveland is better than Indiana. The Cavaliers have lost five fewer games and rank in the top-five defensively. Cleveland gives up an average of 109.6 points per game. Indiana ranks second-to-last in points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. The Pacers surrender an average of nearly 12 more points per game than the Cavaliers.

Cleveland has covered five of the last six times it has been an underdog. During their last seven games, the Cavaliers have beaten three teams with better records than Indiana - the Celtics, Timberwolves and Pelicans in New Orleans.

So I find this line out of whack.

It took a layup at the buzzer to force overtime and then a great effort in overtime for Wisconsin to upset Purdue, 76-75, in a Big Ten Conference Tournament semifinal game Saturday.

But now the Badgers go from getting past the best big man in the Big Ten in 7-foot-4 Zach Edey to perhaps the most talented player in the conference, Illinois' Terrence Shannon Jr.

The Badgers entered the Big Ten Tournament losing eight of their last 11 games. The Badgers beat Maryland and banged-up Northwestern. Their victory against Purdue was a gutty effort. However, I don't see the Badgers pulling off a second straight upset in two days with some of their energy zapped from such a physical and emotional tussle with the Boilermakers.

Illinois also is not a good matchup for Wisconsin. The team's met once this season at Wisconsin on March 2. Illinois won, 91-83. Now the teams are on a neutral court in Minneapolis.

The Illini are explosive and talented, none more than the dynamic Shannon. Illinois is going to get its points. The Illini rank 12th in the country in scoring at 83.9 points a game. The way to beat Illinois is exploit its weak 3-point defense that ranks 259th.

Wisconsin, though, is a below average 3-point shooting team. The Badgers rank 192nd in 3-point accuracy at 33.9 percent. The Illini didn't have nearly the tough time with Nebraska in their semifinal Saturday game as the Badgers did in upsetting Purdue.

I'm going to roll with Nevada, which has won 10 of its last 11 games. The Wolf Pack also won both regular-season games against Colorado State, 77-64, at home and, 77-74, on the road where they led nearly the entire game. Nevada defeated the Rams on the road minus Kenan Blackshear, its best all-around player. Blackshear is healthy now.

The Wolf Pack get a scheduling edge, too, with the Mountain West Conference Tournament being in Las Vegas.

Matchup-wise, Nevada has a size advantage in the low post with Nick Davidson and has a trio of excellent defensive guards to hound Colorado State's star point guard Isaiah Stevens.

Colorado State has been out of sync when playing Nevada due to the Wolf Pack slowing things down and playing excellent perimeter defense. The Rams were just 12-of-41 (29 percent) from 3-point range in their two games against Nevada while the Wolf Pack made 14-of-31 shots from beyond the arc for 45 percent. This isn't surprising since Nevada is a top-50 3-point shooting team while the Rams ranked second-to-last in the Mountain West in 3-point accuracy.

Big road win for the Pacers on Tuesday night defeating the Thunder, 121-111. Indiana also beat the Magic in Orlando this past Sunday.

But now's the time to sell high on the Pacers as they return home to host the Bulls playing without rest following that 2-0 road trip. It's the Pacers' first home game in six days and just their second game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse since Feb. 28.

Oh, yes, the Pacers are 1-8 the past nine times when playing the second of back-to-back games. They've lost to far worse teams than the Bulls during this span when playing without rest.

The Bulls have won eight of their last 11 road games with two of those defeats occurring to the Cavaliers by three points and to the Magic in overtime.

There's a negative perception of the Bulls because Chicago is missing Zach LaVine, Lonzo Ball and Patrick William. But the Bulls still have star power with DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic along with emerging Coby White, who has quietly averaged 19.6 points, 5.2 assists and 4.7 rebounds a game.

No Stephen Curry for the Warriors here while the Spurs are expected to get back rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama, their top scorer, and Devin Vassell, their second-leading scorer.

I know that going in. But it doesn't matter. I like the Warriors to soundly beat the Spurs in this rapid revenge spot.

The Spurs stunned the totally flat Warriors, 126-113, at San Francisco this past Saturday as 12 1/2-point underdogs. Curry didn't play and he remains out with an ankle injury. The Warriors have the rest of their stars back in action, though, including Klay Thompson and Chris Paul.

Golden State is holding onto the 10th playoff spot in the West, giving it a place in the play-in tournament. The Warriors, however, can't afford to take the 14-50 Spurs lightly. Golden State's next two games are on the road against the Mavericks and resurgent Lakers, who are off home victories against the Timberwolves and Bucks.

The Warriors are 8-1 SU and ATS during their past nine road games with the only defeat in this span coming to the Celtics. They've defeated the Spurs four straight times in San Antonio. The Spurs haven't been home in eight days. So their concentration level could be off and their motivation down after having just upset the Warriors.

Yes, San Diego is a much better team than Cal Poly SLO. That's why the point spread is as high as it is. But motivation also matters in this season-finale. San Diego has it. Cal Poly doesn't and that is why the Tritons will bury Cal Poly by far more points than even this lopsided point spread.

The Mustangs are one of the worst teams in the country with a 4-27 record. Their last victory was on Dec. 21. They are an embarrassing 0-19 in the Big West Conference.

San Diego is 20-11 and 14-5 in the Big West, which is the second-best mark in the league. However, the Tritons are ineligible to play in the conference tournament, NCAA Tournament and NIT. That's because they transitioned from Division II to Division I when they joined the Big West in 2020. There is a four-year transition period before the team can be eligible to play in those postseason tournaments. This is the final year the Tritons have to wait.

So look for San Diego to come out strong with this being its final game. The Tritons were upset by Cal-Davis at home in their previous game this past Thursday. They certainly don't want to close their season with another disappointing performance. They should come out focused and they have the perfect patsy to make amends.

The overmatched Mustangs just want their horrendous season to close. They are a terrible defensive team and the sixth-lowest scoring team in the nation averaging a puny 62.9 points a game. San Diego averages nearly 15 more points per game than the Mustangs.

Regardless if Giannis Antetokounmpo plays or doesn't, I like the Warriors to soundly beat the Bucks. 

The Warriors could be back to full strength and are off an utterly humiliating, 140-88, nationally televised road loss to the Celtics this past Sunday afternoon. 

I want Golden State going for me at home following that embarrassment. 

The Bucks, by contrast, are fat and happy having defeated the Clippers, 113-106, at home this past Monday despite not having superstar Antetokounmpo. He missed that game due to Achilles soreness, which has rendered him questionable for this game. 

Despite the loss to the Celtics, the Warriors are 11-3 in their last 14 games. They are expected to get back Brandin Podziemski and Andrew Wiggins, who had missed the past four games because of a personal matter. Wiggins is the Warriors' fourth-leading scorer and an ace defender. Podziemski is Golden State's fifth-leading scorer and is second on the team in rebounds per game. 

Not only could the Bucks be minus Antetokounmpo, but they are down their third-best player, Khris Middleton. He's out with an ankle injury. 
The Warriors have won and covered against the Bucks at home each of the past three seasons.

I don't get this line. Yeah the Celtics have won 10 in a row and own the best home record in the NBA at 28-3. But the Warriors are much improved from earlier in the season and playing their best ball.

Golden State has won eight consecutive road games. The Warriors are 6-1 in their past seven overall games. Only once in their last 20 games have the Warriors been defeated by more than nine points.

The Warriors are used to being on center stage and they won't be intimidated by the Celtics, who they beat in overtime when they played them earlier this season at home.

"...We've just gotten healthy and found a groove," Warriors coach Steve Kerr was quoted as saying. "... It took us a while, frankly, just to figure out our team. We were leaning on what we were two years ago when we won the championship early in the season and that wasn't working. ... We've got a good bit of momentum going and we're just going to try and keep it going.''

This is a nationally televised game (ABC) and should have playoff-type intensity.

Marist opened the smallest of favorites. Still, The Red Foxes opened as a favorite - and that's wrong. Fairfield is the superior team.

Fairfield leads the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) with a 12-5 mark. Marist is in fourth place with a 10-6 mark. The Red Foxes have three fewer overall victories than Fairfield.

Marist lost, 69-60, to Saint Peter's as 3 1/2-point road 'dogs in its last game this past Sunday. Fairfield defeated Saint Peter's, 64-62, on the road and whipped them, 76-67, at home.

The Staggs also rolled past Marist, 82-61, as short home favorites back on Jan. 7. Fairfield has the healthier frontcourt and holds a strong backcourt edge on the Red Foxes. The Staggs have the top guard depth in the MAAC. They forced 18 turnovers against Marist in the first game. That wasn't unusual. Marist has a turnover problem and the Staggs' guards are excellent defenders.

Marist has a stingy defense that is aided by its offense's half-court slow, deliberate style. However, Fairfield averages 12 points more per game and ranks 10th in the nation in 3-point accuracy. Caleb Fields, one of four good guards Fairfield has, burned the Red Foxes for 33 points while hitting 10-of-18 3-pointers in the first meeting.

The Staggs are in excellent current form, too, winning six of their last seven games, including going 3-0 SU and ATS in their past three games. The Staggs have won outright five of the last six times they've been underdogs. Marist has a losing ATS record the past nine times it has been favored.

Fairfield has defeated Marist each of the previous five seasons on the road. This includes a 70-61 away win last year.

The good news for the Lakers is they are off their best comeback win of the season. They came from 21 points down in the fourth quarter to upset their in-city, division rival the Clippers, 116-112, last night. LeBron James led the rally scoring 19 of his 34 points in the fourth quarter.

The bad news for the Lakers is they have a game today. Yes, the opponent is the Wizards, who have lost 11 of 13 games since replacing Wes Unseld Jr. with interim coach Bran Keefe.

But the Wizards are rested, play at the fastest tempo in the NBA and are 5-4 ATS in their last nine games.

The Lakers are 1-3 ATS in their last four games and have failed to cover three of the past four times when favored. The Lakers are down several big men on their rotation with Jarred Vanderbilt and Christian Wood both out. James played 37 minutes last night. Anthony Davis logged 36 minutes. It wouldn't shock if either was rested, or had their minutes reduced tonight.

This is a huge spot for former Laker Kyle Kuzman, who has emerged as arguably the best player on the Wizards. Backed by Kuzman, look for the Wizards to be motivated for this matchup after being idle yesterday. The spot sets up nicely for Washington.

Colorado State has yet to lose at home in seven Mountain West Conference games this season. But it wouldn't shock me if the Rams lost straight-up to Nevada.

The Wolf Pack are a tough matchup for Colorado State. That was proven in the first game between these teams on Jan. 24. The Wolf Pack won, 77-64, as 4 1/2-point home favorites. That was the most points the Rams allowed in regulation during their last 19 games. 

Nevada took advantage of its height advantage to make 56.8 percent of its shots inside the paint. 

The Rams are heavily reliant upon point guard Isaiah Stevens. But Stevens had trouble against the Wolf Pack's 38th-ranked defense making only four-of-16 shots from the field. Nevada held Colorado State to just 26.1 percent from 3-point range as the Rams missed 17 of 23 shots from beyond the arc. This wasn't a fluke as the Wolf Pack have some of the Mountain West Conference best perimeter defenders in Tre Coleman, Daniel Foster and Kenan Blackshear. They are a big reason why the Wolf Pack give up just 66.3 points a game. 

The Wolf Pack have held six of their last seven opponents to 66 or fewer points. Discount an 83-82 loss to New Mexico and Nevada is surrendering an average of only 61.6 points in its last six games.

Never count out Stephen Curry and the Warriors. Golden State is making its move winning 10 of its last 12 games. This includes a 2-0 mark since the All-Star break with double-digit home victories against the Lakers and Hornets.

Look for the Warriors to continue their momentum against the defending world champion Nuggets.

Denver also is 2-0 coming out of All-Star break. However, the Nuggets' victories were against two patsies - the Wizards and Trail Blazers. Denver had gone 0-3 in its three previous games with a pair of losses to the Kings and one to the Bucks.

Now the Nuggets face another real opponent. The Warriors should be extremely motivated. Not just because they have triple revenge having gone 0-3 to the Nuggets this season losing those games by an average of four points. But because they are playing their best ball, are home and need to prove they can beat the Nuggets.

Jamal Murray is questionable for the Nuggets. Murray, Denver's second-leading scorer, missed the Nuggets' last game because of shin splints.

This is only the second time Duke is an underdog this season. The first came against North Carolina on the road. The Blue Devils lost to North Carolina. Since that defeat, though, Duke has won and covered five in a row.

Wake Forest is 14-0 at home, the only ACC team without a home loss. But the 17-9 Demon Deacons aren't as good as the 21-5 Blue Devils, who are 12-3 in the ACC compared to Wake Forest's 9-6 league mark.

I was far more impressed with Duke's 84-55 road victory against Miami this past Wednesday than Wake Forest's, 91-58, home victory against Pittsburgh, which shot just 29 percent from the field vs the Demon Deacons.

Duke handled Wake Forest, 77-69, as seven-point home favorites on Feb. 12. So I find plenty of line value on the Blue Devils as an underdog.

Troy is 7-1 in its last eight games. However, that one defeat came at home to Arkansas State, 82-71, last Thursday. 

The Trojans were 6 1/2-point favorites in that matchup. Now, a week later, they opened as underdogs to Arkansas State. 

I'm not buying that. It's not just rapid revenge for Troy. The Trojans are the superior team. Troy is 18-9 and 11-3 in the Sun Belt Conference, tied for second one game behind Appalachian State. Arkansas State is 13-4 overall and 8-6 in the Sun Belt. 

Both teams average 79 points. The difference comes on defense. Troy gives up 69.4 points a game. Arkansas State permits 78.4 points per game, which ranks 334th. The Red Wolves also are 300th in defensive field goal percentage. 

Don't expect Troy to have a second straight off-shooting game against Arkansas State. So I'll take the points with the superior team.

Air Force is the worst team in the Mountain West Conference. The Falcons are 1-11 in the conference and have lost 14 of their past 15 games. Guess who that one victory came against? Yep, it was against UNLV.

The Falcons stunned the Rebels, 90-58, as 10 1/2-point road 'dogs on Jan. 23. Air Force is 0-6 SU and ATS since then. Air Force made 14 of 28 3-pointers against the Rebels. 

Not only do the Rebels have revenge, but they also are in a kill mood after blowing an 11-point second-half lead in a 69-66 home loss to arch-rival Nevada this past Saturday. That loss snapped a five-game UNLV win streak. 

The Rebels are 14-10 on the season, 7-5 in the Mountain West Conference. They are a much better team than Air Force and should have huge motivation. Air Force ranks 315th in scoring at 67.9 points per game. The Falcons rank 337th in defensive field goal percentage and 354th in 3-point defense. 

Oh, yes, the Falcons also are 0-8 SU and ATS in their last eight home games.

There is no team Nevada gets more motivated to play then its in-state rival, UNLV. The Wolf Pack had lost four in a row to UNLV - until this past Saturday night.

Nevada rallied from nine points down to nip the Rebels, 69-66, as two-point road 'dogs. It was a very satisfying victory for the Wolf Pack. But it also puts the Wolf Pack in a letdown spot for this matchup against Wyoming.

The Cowboys are a respectable .500 Mountain West Conference team that has a winning overall record and a winning league road mark. They are not an easy opponent for Nevada. The Cowboys proved that back on Jan. 20 when they upset the Wolf Pack, 98-93, as seven-point home 'dogs. Now the line has doubled, which I find way too high.

Having gone just 9-9-1-5 in LA, the Kings have burned the most money at home of any team in the NHL.

Don't be shocked if the Kings fail to win at home again even against Columbus. This is a horrendous situational spot for Los Angeles.

The Kings returned to Southern California after winning their last three games of a four-game road trip. This marks their fifth game in eight days and first in the Pacific time zone since Feb. 10.

Contrast this with the Blue Jackets, who are in action for only the third time in 10 days. They last played this past Saturday at San Jose where they nipped the Sharks, 4-3.

Columbus has the fourth-fewest points in the NHL. So the Kings can't help but feel cocky and confident. However, if you give the Blue Jackets plus 1 1/2 goals, they would be 12-8 in their last 20 games.

Maybe it's because Houston dominated Texas this past Saturday holding the Longhorns to their lowest point total of the season in an 82-61 victory. But I find this line way too high on the Cougars.

So I'm on the Cyclones.

Yes, Houston has a 19-game home win streak and is ranked first in the country defensively. Iowa State, however, ranks seventh defensively in the nation, averages more points per game than the Cougars and is a better free throw shooting team.

The Cyclones have had the Cougars' number, too, winning seven of the past eight times. This includes a 57-53 home victory against Texas on Jan. 9 when the Cyclones were a much shorter underdog.    

Iowa State's T.J. Otzelberger is one of the top-five coaches in the country, in my view. The Cyclones are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. Texas had failed to cover in its past four games before its victory against Texas.

Canisius is nothing great. But Siena is the Washington Generals of college basketball. Canisius is 9-15. Siena is 3-21 in its last 24 games. The Saints very well could be the worst offensive team in the country.

The Golden Griffins average 71.8 points a game. That's nearly 12 points more per game than the Saints.

Siena is averaging 60.1 points. That miniscule average shrinks even more to 54.2 points in its last eight games.

The Saints rank 360th in scoring, 354th in free throw accuracy, 348th in field goal percentage and 358th in 3-point percent.

Siena's below-average defense can't make up for its lack of offense. The Saints rank 278th defensively allowing 75.2 points a game.
Canisius defeated Siena, 67-63, on Jan. 12. The Saints have gotten worse since then losing eight of their last nine games.

There hadn't been this much excitement about Indiana State since Larry Bird played for the Sycamores. Unfortunately for the 23rd-ranked Sycamores they are coming off a stunning home upset loss to 12-14 Illinois State this past Tuesday.

Indiana State coach Josh Schertz ripped his team following that defeat calling them soft and lacking toughness.

I'm expecting the Sycamores to be fired-up and to bury Southern Illinois even if Jayson Kent, their leading rebounder, can't play.

Southern Illinois was no match for Indiana State when the teams met earlier this season on Nov. 28. The Sycamores buried the Salukis, 77-48. Southern Illinois ranks 239th in defensive field goal percentage. The Salukis have allowed their past three opponents to shoot at least 50 percent from the field. Indiana State is the third-best shooting team in the country and ranks eighth in points per game at 84.9.

Despite their Top 25 ranking, Indiana State is not a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. The Sycamores lead Drake by just one game in the Missouri Valley Conference.

Princeton has the best overall record of any team in the Ivy League at 17-3. Brown has one of the worst records at 6-16 with a 3-9 road mark.

The teams met two games ago on Feb. 3. Princeton beat the Bears, 70-60, covering as seven-point road favorites. The Tigers accomplished that despite a bad shooting game. They shot 44 percent from the floor and 27 percent from 3-point range. The Tigers' season average is 46.3 shooting from the field and 36.1 percent from beyond the arc.

Brown then lost as a 4 1/2-point home favorite to Columbia, 83-69, in its last game. I don't see Brown staying within this number on the road to Princeton. The Bears lost by double-digits to the Tigers at home when Princeton wasn't shooting well.

Princeton is 8-0 at home. The Tigers permit only 64.7 points per game, which ranks 23rd in the nation. The Tigers also are the second-best free throw shooting team in the country making 79.9 percent.

Brown is below par on both sides of the ball. The Bears average just 70 points and could be the worst free throw shooting team in the land making only 64.7 percent.

Big Ten Conference basketball is all about defense and protecting your home floor. Both of these key factors are in play for Rutgers in this matchup.

The Scarlet Knights have won their last three games posting upset victories against Wisconsin at home and road wins against Michigan and Maryland. It's not a coincidence that these three victories have all come since Iowa State transfer Jeremiah Williams became eligible and played in his first three games for Rutgers. Williams sparked the Scarlet Knights to their, 78-56, upset of 11th-ranked Wisconsin this past Saturday by scoring 18 points, dishing off seven assists and grabbing five rebounds.

Williams provides offense and all-around play to the Scarlet Knights, who give up the 28th-fewest points in the nation and rank 13th in defensive field goal percentage.

Northwestern is much better at home than on the road. The Wildcats are 1-5 in their Big Ten away contests.

This is enough line value for me to take the Trail Blazers given the probable return of Anfernee Simons and the favorable spot Portland is in.

Minnesota is fat and happy off an impressive, 121-100, road victory against the Clippers last night. The Timberwolves can't be faulted if they take the lowly Trail Blazers, a team they buried, 116-93, at home on Jan. 12, not very seriously.

Portland, though, is well-rested and off a tremendous defensive performance. The Trail Blazers held New Orleans to 93 points in their last game this past Saturday. That was 23 points below the Pelicans' season average. However, the Trail Blazers didn't have Simons, their top player and leading scorer, so they couldn't muster up enough offense to win.

Simons is expected to return today from his left ankle sprain. That's huge. It's an extra bonus if Scott Henderson also can play for Portland. He's questionable with a foot sprain.

Portland has been home for eight days, idle for the past two full days. Minnesota is playing its fourth consecutive road game. The Timberwolves have a losing ATS mark when playing in the second of back-to-back days.

The Trail Blazers are 4-3 in their last seven home games with straight-up upset victories against the Bucks, 76ers, Pacers and Nets during this span.

When the Timberwolves rolled past the Trail Blazers in the team's first meeting, Portland was at the tail end of a seven-game road trip and had just played the Thunder the previous night. Now it's the Timberwolves who have a fatigue rating.

Note, too, the teams meet again in Portland on Thursday. So the Timberwolves may hold back some things knowing they have to play this same opponent in their next game.

You have to go back 12 years to find the last time Duquesne won at Dayton. I don't see the Dukes ending their long road losing streak here against the Flyers.

Dayton is ranked 16th, but coming off an ugly, 49-47, road loss to VCU this past Friday. The Flyers held VCU scoreless during the final 5:57, but still couldn't win because of their cold shooting. This was highly unusual since the Flyers rank seventh in 3-point shooting percentage.

That loss has put Dayton in a bounce back spot, while Duquesne is fat-and-happy after upsetting St. Bonaventure this past Saturday.

The Flyers' DaRon Holmes II leads the Atlantic 10 in scoring at 19.4 points per game. Holmes, though, is off a terrible performance against VCU. I expect the Flyers and Holmes to bounce back strong against Duquesne, which is a well below average shooting team. Dayton gives up the seventh-fewest points in the country at 64.3.

Prior to losing to VCU, the Flyers had gone 16-1 with one of those victories during this span coming against Duquesne, 72-62, on the road on Jan. 12.

This is an important game for playoff seeding in the East. The Bulls rank ninth while the Hawks are 10th, one game behind Chicago. The Bulls are the superior defensive team and have a winning point spread mark. They are 7-4 ATS in their past 11 games.

The Hawks give up 123.7 points a game. That ranks second-to-last in the NBA. The Bulls rate 11th defensively, allowing 11 fewer points per game than Atlanta.

Atlanta has the worst point spread mark in the NBA at 17-36 (32 percent) ATS. The Hawks are very bad in this role going 6-16 ATS when favored by more than 1 1/2 points. It's also Atlanta's third game in four days.

Dayton is 18th-ranked in the country, leads the Atlantic 10 Conference and has won 16 of its last 17 games. But this matchup against VCU holds special meaning for the Flyers.

It's their revenge game of the year. VCU defeated Dayton, 68-56, in the Atlantic 10 title game last season.

VCU is good again this season at 15-8, 7-3 in conference. But 19-3 Dayton is better. The Flyers are a better offensive team than they were when they lost to VCU last season. The Flyers average three points more per game than the Rams and rank fifth in the nation in 3-point accuracy. Dayton's DaRon Holmes II leads the A-10 in scoring at 19.7 points per game.

The oddsmaker agrees that Dayton is the superior team, opening the Flyers a road favorite. I'm going to back Dayton on the money line with the line as short as it is.

The Lakers have picked up their pace winning eight of their last 12 games. This includes three straight victories to close out a six-game road trip. 
Sometimes it's dangerous to back a team playing their first home game following a lengthy road trip. That certainly was the case with the Clippers last night. They lost to the Pelicans by 11 points as a 6 1/2-point home favorite. The Clippers had been playing well, too.

But this is a different case and much different situation. The Clippers only had one day of rest after returning to Los Angeles. The Lakers concluded their road swing this past Monday giving them two full days of rest and preparation. 

This also is the Lakers' biggest game of the season and it isn't just because they're playing the defending world champion Nuggets. 

It's a special night because the Lakers organization will be honoring the late Kobe Bryant before the game unveiling a statue of him. The game is going to be heavily attended with many dignitaries. It is being shown nationally on TNT. 

"Win one for Kobe,'' will be the Lakers' motto. So I'm expecting maximum motivation and effort. 

The Nuggets are off back-to-back home victories against the 15-35 Trail Blazers. Not exactly a worthy opponent. Denver has lost in its two previous road games, falling to the Thunder and getting blown out by the Knicks.

The Pelicans are in prime position to ambush the Clippers.

The Clippers returned to Los Angeles on Tuesday after finishing a seven-game, 11-day road trip with a victory against the Hawks in Atlanta this past Monday night. There were 293 points scored in the Clippers' crazy, 149-144, victory against the Hawks. Kawhi Leonard and James Harden each played more than 37 minutes in that game. 

Now the Clippers have to get used to being home having played in a different arena for the past seven games. LA has to be feeling good having gone 6-1 on its road trip. The Clippers are not only in a letdown spot, but their concentration could be off having been gone for so long. They also might be dealing with dead legs in action for the third time in four days and fourth time in six days. 

New Orleans is playing well, too, riding a three-game win streak. The Pelicans don't have nearly the fatigue factor LA does. This is just the Pelicans' second game in five days.  

The teams are meeting for the third time this season. The road team has won each of the first two games. Attendance could be less than normal for the Clippers because of the heavy rains that hit southern California. 

I want Houston going for me at home after it was smashed, 78-65, by Kansas on the road this past Saturday. That was the Cougars' worst regular-season defeat in two years.

Even giving up 78 points in that game, the Cougars still rank first in the country in fewest points allowed per game at 54 and in defensive efficiency. Oklahoma State is the worst team in the Big 12 Conference. The Cowboys only average 71.1 points, which ranks 259th. They also rank 314th in free throw percentage.

The Cowboys are actually a little fat and happy, though, after upsetting Kansas State at home this past Saturday. That was just their second win in their past nine games.

Texas has a strong record as a big favorite covering 62 percent of the past 104 times when they've been chalk of more than 10 points.

This is Kentucky's game to win and I see the Wildcats doing just that. Getting any points with the Wildcats is just a bonus.

Kentucky defeated Tennessee in both meetings last season. Kentucky won those games by a combined 19 points. The Wildcats close their regular season at Tennessee. So it is paramount they beat the Volunteers in Lexington, Ky.

Both teams got caught peeking ahead to this marquee matchup in their last game. Kentucky blew a four-point home lead with 20 seconds and lost in overtime to Florida this past Wednesday. That was just the Wildcats' second home loss in 12 home contests. Tennessee looked far worse, though. The Volunteers lost, 63-59, to South Carolina as a 14-point home favorite this past Tuesday. Tennessee is going to have to play far, far better than that to stay competitive against the Wildcats.

The Wildcats own the deeper bench and have a highly-underrated shooting guard in Antonio Reeves. Not only is he an elite defensive player, but he's scored 19 or more points in eight of the last 10 games.

Points are going to be hard to come by in this matchup between the Magic, who ranked fifth in the NBA defensively, and the Timberwolves, who give up the fewest points per game. That's why the oddsmaker has set a low total. So I find this to be a lot of points to get.

The Timberwolves are a bit fat and happy after a blowout victory against the Mavericks two days ago.

Orlando has the best point spread mark in the NBA at 31-17, which is 64.5 percent. The Magic have held two of their last three opponents to 98 points, the Spurs and Suns. That was 18 points below the Suns' season average.

It's gut check time for Colorado State after consecutive road losses to Wyoming and Nevada. The Rams are in the NCAA Tournament hunt with a 15-5 record, but blew an 11-point lead with 1:11 left to fall to Wyoming in overtime this past Saturday in their last game. 

The Rams are home now where they are 10-1, including 3-0 in Mountain West Conference games and with a victory against 19th-ranked New Mexico. San Diego State has been idle for a week. The Aztecs are 0-5-1 ATS in true road games and have been known to struggle when playing in high altitude venues, which Moby Arena is. 

The Aztecs are 16-4, but have feasted on weak competition going 14-0 vs Quad 2 or lower opponents and 2-4 against Quad 1 foes. 
Colorado State is the seventh-best shooting team in the country. San Diego State is the second-worst shooting team in the Mountain West ahead of only Boise State. The Aztecs are the worst 3-point shooting team in the conference. 

San Diego State could be rusty, too, having been idle for a week. The Aztecs have a bigger game up next when they host 17th-ranked and Mountain West leader Utah State.

It's easy to cite revenge for Washington State when going with the Cougars to beat Colorado at home in this matchup. The Buffaloes beat the Cougars, 74-67, in Boulder on Dec. 31.

But it's more than that. Washington State has come together a lot more since that defeat going 5-2 in their last seven games. The Cougars are strong at home and Colorado is coming off a road win against Washington this past Wednesday. I don't see the Buffaloes knocking off both Washington and Washington State on the road. Prior to defeating Washington, Colorado had played four true road games. The Buffaloes lost and failed to cover in each of those contests.

Washington State is 9-2 at home. The Cougars won and covered against Utah and Arizona during their last two home games.

The Cougars are a better defensive team than Colorado and can take advantage of the Buffaloes' weak 3-point defense.

Kent State is far superior to Ohio in two key categories - 3-point shooting and free throw shooting. The Golden Flashes also are home for this Mid-American Conference matchup. That's a key, too. Ohio is 0-5 SU and ATS in its five true road games.

The Bobcats lost on the road this past Tuesday to Akron, 67-58, as an 8-point 'dog. The Bobcats remain a fade on the road until they prove they can cover a true away game.

Kent State has the better overall record, although both teams are 3-4 in the MAC. The Golden Flashes rank 54th in 3-point accuracy. Ohio is 199th in 3-point defense. Kent State also makes 76 percent of its free throws compared to Ohio, which ranks 221st in free throw percentage at 70.4 percent.

A disappointing season turned tragic for Golden State when assistant coach Dejan Milojevic died of a heart attack last Wednesday. The Warriors haven't played since.

The Warriors will honor Milojevic, showing a video tribute of him before the game.

Look for the Warriors to treat this matchup as their Super Bowl. I'm expecting a highly-motivated home performance from Golden State in memory of Milojevic.

Golden State did hold a full practice on Tuesday. Draymond Green also has been getting better since coming back from suspension. This will be his first home game since his Dec. 14 suspension for striking Jusuf Nurkic in the face.

Then there is the opponent. It's Atlanta, which has the worst point spread mark in the NBA by far at 11-32 ATS (25.5 percent).

The Hawks also are going to be without their best player, Trae Young. He missed the Hawks' last game, a 122-107 road loss to the Kings this past Monday, because of a concussion.

While the Warriors should be full of energy, the Hawks are playing for the fourth time in six days. It's also their fourth straight different venue.

Houston is finding out the hard way that winning on the road in the Big 12 Conference is tough. The Cougars are ranked fourth in the country, but they are 0-2 SU and ATS on the road in the Big 12 losing to Iowa State and TCU.

BYU has one of the best home-courts in the country. The Cougars slaughtered Iowa State, 87-72, at home a week ago. BYU lost at Texas Tech in its previous game this past Saturday after blowing a 16-point halftime lead. But at home, BYU is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS, outscoring foes by an average of nearly 30 points a game.

The Cougars are the 11th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 85.3 points. That's 11 points more per game than Houston averages. The Cougars also could be without J'Wan Roberts, a key defender and their leading rebounder.

Cleveland is one of the hottest teams in the NBA riding a seven-game win streak. During this span, the Cavaliers have held their opponents to an average of 98.4 points. That figure would easily lead the NBA in defense if it were season-long. Orlando ranks 25th in scoring and has the second-worst 3-point shooting percentage.

The Magic got back Franz Wagner on Sunday. He scored 19 points in 28 minutes to help the Magic defeat the Heat in a Southeast Division showdown match between the first and second place teams in that division. Wagner had missed the previous eight games with an ankle injury. He's Orlando's second-leading scorer at 20.8 points. The Magic could choose to hold Wagner out of this matchup not wanting to risk him playing in a back-to-back situation so early in his recovery.

This also marks the Magic's seventh game in 11 days. Orlando is 2-5 in its last seven games even with the impressive victory against Miami.

The Cavaliers have defeated their last four opponents - Hawks, Bucks, Bulls and Nets - by an average of 22 points. It's not too much to ask them to just win against a tired, low-scoring Orlando team.

Iowa is much improved since an 87-68 road loss to Purdue back on Dec. 4. The Hawkeyes are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. They have won and covered three in a row beating Rutgers, Nebraska and Minnesota by an average of 12 points.

This is only Purdue's third true road game. The Boilermakers lost to Nebraska on the road, 88-72, three games ago. Iowa defeated Nebraska, 94-76, at home eight days ago.

Purdue is playing consecutive true road games for the first time this season. The Boilermakers are the 13th-highest scoring team in the nation. Iowa ranks fifth in scoring averaging two more points per game than Purdue at 87.1.

Maybe I'm a sucker, but I can't turn down taking points with the better team. That's what I find in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference matchup between Marist and Mount St. Mary's.

Marist is 8-6. The Red Foxes have a strong 10-4 ATS record. Mount St. Mary's is 6-10 and has a losing ATS mark.

The Red Foxes are a strong defensive team, holding foes to 62.6 points a game. That ranks 10th-best in the country. Mount St. Mary's is below average in scoring, rebounding, 3-point shooting and free throw percentage. The Mountaineers also surrender nearly 10 more points per game than Marist.

The Mountaineers are 2-4 in their last six games, including losing and failing to cover in their last two. The Red Foxes halted a four-game losing skid with a confidence-building, 83-60, victory against Rider.

If you discount an 82-61 loss to Fairfield, Marist is giving up an average of only 58.3 points in its last nine games. I don't see Mount St. Mary's scoring too many points. So receiving multiple points looms large.

Troy enters this matchup riding a lot of momentum and has significant edges on South Alabama in several key areas.

The Trojans are on a six-game winning and covering streak. They lead the Sun Belt Conference with a 5-0 mark. South Alabama is 2-3 in the Sun Belt. 

Troy averages 81.4 points a game. That's nearly seven points more per game than South Alabama. The Trojans also are the superior rebounding team and 3-point shooting team. Troy ranks 119th in 3-point accuracy. The Jaguars, by contrast, rank 298th in 3-point accuracy. Troy ranks 52nd in the nation in rebounding while the Jaguars are 252nd. 

Not only is Troy superior to South Alabama on paper, but also in the respected kenpom.com ratings where the Trojans are ranked 141st compared to the Jaguars being 205th. 

So I don't find it too much to ask of the Trojans to just win this game. 

The bar is set low for Holy Cross in this Patriot League matchup. Holy Cross is 4-13. Lafayette is 5-12, but leads the Patriot League with a 4-0 mark. The Crusaders are 1-3 in league making this a crucial home game for them.

Lafayette is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation. The Leopards average only 60.2 points per game on 39.3 percent shooting from the floor and 27.7 percent from 3-point range. Holy Cross averages five more points per game than Lafayette.

The Crusaders have the best player on the court in Joe Octave. He averages 15 points and 6.6 rebounds. The Crusaders snapped a three-game losing streak with a 69-66 overtime road win against Lehigh as a 10-point 'dog. So the Crusaders should bring in confidence for this key league game.

The Leopards are 2-8 in their 10 road/neutral site games.

I make Holy Cross the favorite in this matchup. So getting these many points is a bonus.

Wisconsin remains the lone unbeaten team in Big Ten play. But no team goes unbeaten through the conference schedule in this rugged league. So the Badgers are on borrowed time. That time could be up in this matchup.

Penn State is 4-2 ATS in its Big Ten games. The Nittany Lions upset Michigan at a neutral site three games ago. Since then, however, the Nittany Lions have lost to second-ranked Purdue and Northwestern. So this becomes a circle-the-wagons home game for Penn State, which upset Ohio State at home and nearly upset Maryland on the road losing in overtime.

This is just the Badgers' fifth true road game. They are 2-2 in those away contests with their defeats coming to Providence by 13 and to Arizona by 25.

The teams played two close games last season with Wisconsin edging Penn State, 63-60 and 79-74.

The Eagles catch two major breaks here. This game is on Monday night so they get extra rest. They also draw the Buccaneers.

The Eagles are at low ebb right now dropping five of their last six games. They certainly won't lack motivation now that the playoffs are here. Tampa Bay, winner of the weak NFC South Division, is one of the worst teams in the postseason. 

The Bucs are last in rushing and Baker Mayfield is banged-up. Tampa Bay has produced a combined 22 points in its last two games going against the Panthers and Saints. 

Philadelphia played a much more difficult schedule than Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers only went 1-5 in games vs playoff teams. The one victory came against the Packers. 

The Buccaneers hosted the Eagles back in Week 3. It didn't go well for Tampa Bay. The Eagles won, 25-11. The Buccaneers could only manage 12 first downs and 41 yards rushing. 

The Packers surprised many people sneaking into the playoffs as the final wild-card team. But that is their ceiling.

Dallas could be the best team in the NFL when playing at home. The Cowboys have won 16 games in a row at AT&T Stadium. That includes an 8-0 mark this season with the average winning margin being 21.5 points.

Green Bay is the youngest team in the NFL. The Packers had no Pro Bowl players. None. They are 28th in run defense. Star cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable with an ankle injury. Joe Barry is one of the worst defensive coordinators in the league. He will not have answers, nor innovations, to slow down Dallas' high-powered attack.

The Cowboys were the top-scoring team in the NFL. Dak Prescott was first in touchdown passes. He has a 22-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home. CeeDee Lamb is right there with Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase and Tyreek Hill as the best wide receiver in football.

Before closing out their regular season facing the Vikings' rookie fourth-string quarterback and the Bears, the Packers surrendered 34 points to the Buccaneers at home. They made Baker Mayfield look like Joe Montana. Then Green Bay gave up 30 points to the Panthers. Carolina ranked last in yards gained and second-to-last in points. The Panthers were shut out in their final two games after playing Green Bay.

The Packers, Jordan Love and their many young receivers are in the development stage. The Cowboys have gone 12-5 each of the last three seasons making the playoffs each year. They are far ahead of the Packers at this juncture.

I'm selling high on the Gophers right now. 

Picked to finish last in the Big Ten Conference by the media, Minnesota is a surprising 12-3 and tied for second in the Big Ten with a 3-1 league mark. The Gophers are off narrow victories against Michigan and Maryland. They've won seven in a row.

But I see reality closing in on Minnesota. The Gophers' next four games are this one at Indiana, then Iowa followed by a road game at Michigan State and then Wisconsin. 

Minnesota only has played two true road games. Indiana is 8-1 at home this season.

The Hooisers should be highly motivated for this matchup after losing, 66-57, on the road to Rutgers this past Tuesday. Indiana was an embarrassing 4-of-15 from the foul line in that loss. 

The 11-5 Hooisers are not a good free throw shooting team, but they do connect on 48.4 percent of their field goal attempts. That rates 35th in the country.

Portland is going through another tough period with four blowout losses and a victory during its last five games. So why back the Trail Blazers here? The complex answer is when things don't seem to make sense in the NBA, that's usually the right side to be on.

Then there's this: Oklahoma City just beat Miami, 128-120, on Wednesday night. Playing the physical, usually ultra-competitive Heat rarely is easy. The last three teams who played the Heat failed to cover in their next game. Oklahoma City will be playing without rest and is in action for the third time in four days. The Thunder have a more challenging matchup on deck when they host the much-improved Magic on Sunday.

The Trail Blazers should be up for this contest after getting buried by the Knicks at New York this past Tuesday. Prior to that game, Portland upset Brooklyn on the road as a 9 1/2-point 'dog. By comparison, the Thunder played at the Nets this past Friday and lost.

Portland has a winning ATS mark on the road this season. The Trail Blazers own outright away victories against the Raptors, Pacers and Cavaliers. They've lost road games by six or fewer points to the Bucks, Lakers, Clippers, Jazz and Kings. I look for them to hang in during this one.

The Eagles don't need to beat the Giants unless the Cowboys happen to lose to the Commanders. That's not going to happen. The Cowboys are two-touchdown favorites in that game. So the Eagles will be the NFC's No. 5 seed.

Both the Dallas and Philadelphia Sunday games go later in the afternoon. The Eagles will be monitoring the Cowboys-Commanders matchup. If that game goes as expected with Dallas winning, Eagles coach Nick Sirianni is going to want to pull Jalen Hurts and other starters not wanting to risk injury.

But even if the Eagles starters play the entire game - which I don't anticipate - the Giants are capable of beating Philadelphia straight-up.

New York would be 4-3 in its last seven games if not for a one-point loss to the Rams this past Sunday. Tyrod Taylor is the right quarterback choice. The Giants' offensive line has gotten healthier. Darren Waller has returned at tight end.

The Eagles' defense is gassed. They are giving up 31.5 points a game during their last six games. They miss Jonathan Gannon, their defensive coordinator from last season who now coaches the Cardinals. Gannon's Cardinals ran for 221 yards and never punted in beating the Eagles, 35-31, this past Sunday at Philadelphia. Saquon Barkley is better than James Conner or any runner Arizona has.

BYU is 12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS, ranks fourth in the nation in scoring, 12th in the country defensively and has a winning margin of 28.9 points, which leads all Division I teams.

And the Cougars haven't even been 100 percent - until now. Expected to play is defensive ace Fousseyni Traore, who is the Cougars' sixth-leading scorer. He had missed December because of a hamstring injury.

The 12th-ranked Cougars are ready to make their Big 12 debut against Cincinnati, another newcomer to the esteemed Big 12 Conference.

BYU is a legitimate 12-1. All of its victories have been by at least nine points. The Cougars average 90.4 points and hold their foes to an average of 61.5 points.

Cincinnati is 11-2, but that record is bogus given the soft schedule the Bearcats have played. This is just the Bearcats' third true road game of the season.

Cincinnati failed to cover as 12 1/2-point road favorites against Howard needing overtime to win, 86-81. The Bearcats lost on the road to Xavier, 84-79, as one-point underdogs. Cincinnati also has played one neutral site game. That was against Dayton. The Bearcats were 5 1/2-point favorites and lost, 82-68.

Given their road woes and soft schedule, I don't see the Bearcats staying within double-digits of the powerful Cougars.

The Timberwolves are off consecutive losses to the Knicks and Pelicans at home. They have not lost three in a row all season.

Timberwolves coach Chris Finch called out his team for not playing harder and with not enough purpose. I believe the Timberwolves show up here with a lot of determination and motivation.

Houston is No. 2 in the NBA in defense. The one team ahead of the Rockets is Minnesota. The Timberwolves give up the fewest points per game and rank first, too, in fewest points allowed per 100 possessions.

The Rockets are 2-0 in their last two games. Those victories have been against the Pistons, the worst team in the NBA, and to the sagging Nets, who have lost five in a row. The Rockets had lost their previous three games - all when stepping up in class with losses to the 76ers, Suns and Pacers. This is a step-up-in-class game for Houston.

This is both a play on Dallas and fade on Detroit. The spot intersects perfectly.

The Cowboys return home following a close road loss to the Dolphins. Dallas has been absolutely dominant at home and very strong, too, off a loss.
Dallas is 7-0 at home. The Cowboys' average winning margin at home is 24.4 points. Dallas also is 8-1 SU and ATS the past two seasons following a defeat.

The Lions are in a major letdown spot after capturing their first division crown in 30 years.

Dallas is second in the NFL in scoring at 30.1 points a game. Detroit also has a good offense. The difference is defense. The Cowboys give up the fifth-fewest points per game at 19.1. The Lions have permitted an average of 26.8 points during their last nine games. Detroit ranks 24th in scoring defense and 23rd in pass defense.

Dak Prescott has a 122.5 passer rating at home and a home mark of 20 touchdown passes and only two interceptions.

There's also a 10-figure gap in turnover ratio. Dallas is plus 8 in takeaways/giveaways while the Lions are minus-2.

North Carolina State has plenty of momentum entering this bowl game. I'm going to ride that here as Kansas State was hit hard by players transferring and opting out. I see a wrong favorite here.

The Wolfpack won and covered their last five games. They won four of those games as underdogs beating Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech and North Carolina. Kansas State, on the flip side, lost three times as a favorite falling to Missouri, Oklahoma State and Iowa State. The Wildcats are 2-2, 1-2-1 ATS in their last four games.

I'm not a huge fan of North Carolina State QB Brennan Armstrong. But he's an experienced, dual threat who played well against North Carolina in the Wolfpack's last game passing for 334 yards and three touchdowns helping North Carolina State pile up 504 yards in a 39-20 victory.

Now the Wolfpack drop down from facing Drake Maye, maybe the best quarterback in college, to drawing freshman Avery Johnson. He's replacing the Wildcats' starting QB Will Howard, who was one of around 15 Kansas State players leaving. The Wildcats also lost All-Big 12 tight end Ben Sinnott and star safety Kobe Savage. They also won't have offensive coordinator and play-caller Collin Klein. He left for Texas A&M to be the Aggies' offensive coordinator after coaching at Kansas State for seven years.

Only 16 teams ranked ahead of North Carolina State on run defense. The Wolfpack also ranked third in the country in takeaways with 17.

Since 2021, Baltimore is 9-2-1 ATS as an underdog. Lamar Jackson is having an MVP-type season. Jackson is 19-1 against NFC opponents. The Ravens are one rushing touchdown shy of their franchise-best of 24 running TD's.

So as good as San Francisco is, I'm not turning down this many points with Baltimore.

This may be the game of the year. But as strange as it may sound, this is not a crucial game for the 49ers. San Francisco can lose to Baltimore and still earn the No. 1 NFC seed in the playoffs by winning its final two games. Those games are against the 4-11 Commanders and Rams at home.

My handicap is based almost entirely on being pro-Ravens rather than anti-49ers. But San Francisco did give up 234 rushing yards to the Cardinals last week. The 49ers hadn't allowed that many yards on the ground in six seasons. Perhaps a possible red flag? The Ravens are the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL. They've run for at least 100 yards in 30 straight games.

Both teams have Super Bowl-caliber defenses. The Ravens have surrendered 20 touchdowns, which is the fewest in the league. Baltimore has permitted one touchdown or fewer in nine games. That's by far the best mark in the NFL.

Brock Purdy is a pocket passer. He has outstanding weapons that he utilizes well. Jackson is his own weapon. He's the most mobile quarterback the 49ers have faced and by far the best dual-threat they've seen.

Look for the Rockets to take care of business at home against the Hawks. Houston is 2-10 on the road, but has won 11 in a row at home.

The Rockets are the far superior defensive team, ranking in the top-three in a number of major categories, including scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.

The Hawks give up an average of 15 more points per game than Houston.

Atlanta has failed to cover in seven of its last eight road games, losing those games by an average of 11 points. The Hawks also are banged-up with Jalen Johnson out and Bogdan Bogdanovic questionable with an ankle injury.

The Nets are a team I like to get behind. This is a spot to back them. Only the 76ers have a better point spread record than Brooklyn. The Nets are 17-7-1 (71 percent) ATS.

Brooklyn is superior to Utah in all facets. The Nets are looking to conclude their five-game West Coast trip with a victory after consecutive losses to the Warriors and Nuggets. No shame in losing to those two opponents on the road. There would be shame, though, if they lost to the Jazz.

The Jazz are 5-10 in their last 15 games. Two of Utah's past three victories have occurred against the Trail Blazers, one in overtime. Portland is 6-19.

Utah is down some of its firepower with Jordan Clarkson, Keyonte George and John Collins all sidelined. Clarkson and George are out while Collins is questionable due to illness.

Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are pissed. It's not a good time to be playing the Chiefs especially if you have a punchless offense like the Patriots do.

The Chiefs are still mad and fired-up about the way they lost to the Bills last week. They are going to be up for this game. Kansas City has too much offense for New England.

The Patriots and Bailey Zappe didn't suddenly get good by virtue of their 21-18 victory against the Steelers last week. Pittsburgh is terrible going 1-4 in its last five games averaging 13.4 points during this span.

New England's defense is sound, but it's going to break under the weight of the Chiefs' well-designed attack and the ineptitude of the Patriot offense. The Patriots had scored a combined 13 points during their previous three games before beating the Steelers. New England is the lowest-scoring team in the NFL averaging 13 points a game. Zappe is not a starting-caliber quarterback and the Patriots remain without their one decent skill position player, injured Rhamondre Stevenson.

This also was the week where news broke about this possibly being Bill Belichick's last season in New England. Belichick hasn't had the locker room all season. So this distracting news is going to be more of a negative than a motivational factor.

When it's dreck vs dreck like it is in this matchup, take the points. 

The Chargers beat the Raiders, 24-17, in Week 4. That was Aidan O'Connell's quarterback debut in the NFL. Khalil Mack welcomed O'Connell into the league by sacking him six times. O'Connell had three turnovers in that game. Nothing has changed. O'Connell still holds the ball too long and is mistake-prone. 

Only once in their last seven games have the Raiders scored more than 17 points. Las Vegas is averaging 11.5 points in its past four games. Jimmy Garoppolo is just an older version of O'Connell, a statue who also has thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes.  

The Chargers are vulnerable on pass defense. However, they rank No. 2 in the NFL in sacks with 43. The questionable status of Josh Jacobs is getting a lot of attention. But the Raiders definitely will be without two starting offensive linemen, left tackle Kolton Miller and center Andre James. Las Vegas' quarterbacks are immobile. Missing two starters from the offensive line, including perhaps their best one in Miller, does not bode well. 

Chargers quarterback Easton Stick shouldn't be worse than O'Connell or Garoppolo. This is his fifth season as the Chargers' backup. He's learned from Philip Rivers and Justin Herbert and is well ingrained into the Chargers' system. Stick was a huge star for FCS power North Dakota State from 2015-18. No Keenan Allen, but the Chargers at least get Josh Palmer back. 

Stick should be able to move the ball throwing short against the Raiders' soft zone coverages they heavily use. Austin Ekeler has lost his juice as a runner, but he still is one of the best at catching the ball out of the backfield. 

Maybe now that the pressure is off, the Chargers will loosen up and play better. The disadvantage of being the road team on Thursday is lessened here because the Chargers only had a short distance to travel and are well-acquainted with their AFC West Division rival. 

Florida Atlantic is going through a high profile stretch of games. The 15th-ranked Owls just competed in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden last week. They meet St. Bonaventure Saturday in the Basketball Hall of Fame Classic in Springfield, Mass. and will take on top-ranked Arizona in the Las Vegas Desert Classic on Dec. 23.

But before those marquee matchups, the Owls have this game against Florida International. I don't see the Owls getting too motivated for the 3-7 Panthers.

I have this game power-rated much lower than this inflated point spread. Florida International is playing better, winning two of its last three games. The Panthers took the Owls to overtime when they previously met last Jan. 11.

The Panthers force the second-most turnovers in the nation and are second in steals led by guard Arturo Dean, who leads the country in steals per game at 4.5.

Oklahoma City ranked among the top three point spread teams last season. The Thunder are in the top-three again this season covering 14 of their 20 games for 70 percent. This includes a 3-0 ATS record against Golden State this season.

The Thunder have defeated the Warriors in two of those three meetings. They are in much better current form and hosting Golden State. I expect them to win by a solid margin.

Oklahoma City is 8-3 in its last 11 games. The Thunder won't lack motivation following a 110-101 road loss to the Rockets this past Wednesday.

Golden State snuck past Portland, 110-106, as a 12 1/2-point home favorite this past Wednesday. The Warriors have lost 10 of their past 15 games even with that victory against the 6-14 Trail Blazers.

The Warriors rank 19th defensively. The Thunder are averaging 128 points in regulation against Golden State.

The Hawks are an excellent fade when laying points. Atlanta is 2-9 ATS (18 percent) this season as chalk.

The spot also sets up well for the Nets, who are in better form than Atlanta.

Brooklyn is 4-1 in its last five games. The Nets last played on Saturday. They should be rested and ready for this short revenge game. The Hawks edged the Nets, 147-145, in overtime when they hosted them on Nov. 22.

This is the Hawk' first game since returning from a five-game road trip. Atlanta is 3-6 in its last nine games.

Saint Mary's was a ranked team opening the season. But a 3-5 start has removed the Gaels from Top-25 status. The Gaels are in position to take their frustrations out hosting Cleveland State.

The Vikings are 0-3 on the road. Their previous away game was against fellow Horizon League team, Youngstown State this past Wednesday. The Vikings were 2 1/2-point 'dogs. They lost, 94-69. They have played much worse on the road averaging fewer than 70 points while giving up an average of 80.7 points. Earlier this season, the Vikings were seven-point road favorites against Eastern Michigan - and lost straight-up by seven points, 69-62.

Saint Mary's still is an elite defensive team ranking 14th in fewest points allowed per game at 61 points. I don't see Cleveland State having much success being on the West Coast facing this upper tier defense.

The records are almost identical. The Suns are 12-9. The Lakers are 12-8.

The Lakers are the home team in this quarterfinal Western Conference matchup of the NBA's in-season tournament. LA is 2-0 vs Phoenix this season. The Lakers beat the Suns, 122-119, in the latest meeting Nov. 10.

So why do I like the underdog Suns?

I find Kevin Durant and Devin Booker to be the deadliest scoring duo in the NBA. The pair are averaging a combined 59 points per game. Booker missed the two earlier games against the Lakers. Yet even without Booker, the Suns nearly beat the Lakers in their previous meeting building a seven-point fourth quarter lead.

Now Booker finally gets to play against LA. He's a difference maker. Since losing to the Lakers, the Suns have gone 8-2. Phoenix is the better team with those two in the lineup. They'll prove it here.

This game has more meaning than the usual early December regular-season matchup. It's a Western Conference quarterfinal game of the NBA in-season tournament with the winner advancing to the semifinals of the tournament Thursday in Las Vegas.

There's more pressure on the home Kings. They haven't fared well in the role of favorite going 4-7 ATS this season, including losing five times straight-up as chalk.  

The Pelicans, conversely, have thrived as underdogs covering the last six times in that position winning five of those games straight-up.

The teams have met twice already this season. Both games were in New Orleans. The Pelicans won each time by 36 and five points, respectively.

The Kings had problems defending against Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Those two stars are reinforced by CJ McCollum and Trey Murphy III both healthy after being out. So the Pelicans will have all four of their leading scorers. Williamson, Ingram, McCollum and Murphy average a combined 86 points a game.

The spot sets up well for the 49ers to get a measure of revenge from their, 31-7, loss to the Eagles in the NFC title game last season when Brock Purdy was knocked out of the game.

I find the 49ers to be the most complete team in the NFC when healthy, which they are now. The Eagles rank 29th on pass defense. That is a potentially fatal flaw.

Philadelphia also isn't as healthy as San Francisco with a banged-up receiver corps.

San Francisco is the more rested team having last played on Thanksgiving while the Eagles defense was on the field for a staggering 92 plays in their overtime victory against the Bills last Sunday. Buffalo produced 505 yards against the Eagles.

The 49ers have much to prove here. The Eagles, on the other hand, actually have a bigger game on deck when they face the Cowboys on the road next Sunday night.