Florida Atlantic is going through a high profile stretch of games. The 15th-ranked Owls just competed in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden last week. They meet St. Bonaventure Saturday in the Basketball Hall of Fame Classic in Springfield, Mass. and will take on top-ranked Arizona in the Las Vegas Desert Classic on Dec. 23.

But before those marquee matchups, the Owls have this game against Florida International. I don't see the Owls getting too motivated for the 3-7 Panthers.

I have this game power-rated much lower than this inflated point spread. Florida International is playing better, winning two of its last three games. The Panthers took the Owls to overtime when they previously met last Jan. 11.

The Panthers force the second-most turnovers in the nation and are second in steals led by guard Arturo Dean, who leads the country in steals per game at 4.5.

Oklahoma City ranked among the top three point spread teams last season. The Thunder are in the top-three again this season covering 14 of their 20 games for 70 percent. This includes a 3-0 ATS record against Golden State this season.

The Thunder have defeated the Warriors in two of those three meetings. They are in much better current form and hosting Golden State. I expect them to win by a solid margin.

Oklahoma City is 8-3 in its last 11 games. The Thunder won't lack motivation following a 110-101 road loss to the Rockets this past Wednesday.

Golden State snuck past Portland, 110-106, as a 12 1/2-point home favorite this past Wednesday. The Warriors have lost 10 of their past 15 games even with that victory against the 6-14 Trail Blazers.

The Warriors rank 19th defensively. The Thunder are averaging 128 points in regulation against Golden State.

The Hawks are an excellent fade when laying points. Atlanta is 2-9 ATS (18 percent) this season as chalk.

The spot also sets up well for the Nets, who are in better form than Atlanta.

Brooklyn is 4-1 in its last five games. The Nets last played on Saturday. They should be rested and ready for this short revenge game. The Hawks edged the Nets, 147-145, in overtime when they hosted them on Nov. 22.

This is the Hawk' first game since returning from a five-game road trip. Atlanta is 3-6 in its last nine games.

Saint Mary's was a ranked team opening the season. But a 3-5 start has removed the Gaels from Top-25 status. The Gaels are in position to take their frustrations out hosting Cleveland State.

The Vikings are 0-3 on the road. Their previous away game was against fellow Horizon League team, Youngstown State this past Wednesday. The Vikings were 2 1/2-point 'dogs. They lost, 94-69. They have played much worse on the road averaging fewer than 70 points while giving up an average of 80.7 points. Earlier this season, the Vikings were seven-point road favorites against Eastern Michigan - and lost straight-up by seven points, 69-62.

Saint Mary's still is an elite defensive team ranking 14th in fewest points allowed per game at 61 points. I don't see Cleveland State having much success being on the West Coast facing this upper tier defense.

The records are almost identical. The Suns are 12-9. The Lakers are 12-8.

The Lakers are the home team in this quarterfinal Western Conference matchup of the NBA's in-season tournament. LA is 2-0 vs Phoenix this season. The Lakers beat the Suns, 122-119, in the latest meeting Nov. 10.

So why do I like the underdog Suns?

I find Kevin Durant and Devin Booker to be the deadliest scoring duo in the NBA. The pair are averaging a combined 59 points per game. Booker missed the two earlier games against the Lakers. Yet even without Booker, the Suns nearly beat the Lakers in their previous meeting building a seven-point fourth quarter lead.

Now Booker finally gets to play against LA. He's a difference maker. Since losing to the Lakers, the Suns have gone 8-2. Phoenix is the better team with those two in the lineup. They'll prove it here.

This game has more meaning than the usual early December regular-season matchup. It's a Western Conference quarterfinal game of the NBA in-season tournament with the winner advancing to the semifinals of the tournament Thursday in Las Vegas.

There's more pressure on the home Kings. They haven't fared well in the role of favorite going 4-7 ATS this season, including losing five times straight-up as chalk.  

The Pelicans, conversely, have thrived as underdogs covering the last six times in that position winning five of those games straight-up.

The teams have met twice already this season. Both games were in New Orleans. The Pelicans won each time by 36 and five points, respectively.

The Kings had problems defending against Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Those two stars are reinforced by CJ McCollum and Trey Murphy III both healthy after being out. So the Pelicans will have all four of their leading scorers. Williamson, Ingram, McCollum and Murphy average a combined 86 points a game.

The spot sets up well for the 49ers to get a measure of revenge from their, 31-7, loss to the Eagles in the NFC title game last season when Brock Purdy was knocked out of the game.

I find the 49ers to be the most complete team in the NFC when healthy, which they are now. The Eagles rank 29th on pass defense. That is a potentially fatal flaw.

Philadelphia also isn't as healthy as San Francisco with a banged-up receiver corps.

San Francisco is the more rested team having last played on Thanksgiving while the Eagles defense was on the field for a staggering 92 plays in their overtime victory against the Bills last Sunday. Buffalo produced 505 yards against the Eagles.

The 49ers have much to prove here. The Eagles, on the other hand, actually have a bigger game on deck when they face the Cowboys on the road next Sunday night.

This is the Big Ten Conference title game. But nothing was bigger for Michigan than beating Ohio State last week. So this matchup is actually a letdown for the Wolverines.

Iowa's offense has gotten better, but obviously this handicap is all about the Hawkeyes' outstanding defense and Michigan being in a letdown spot.

So I'll take this many points given these factors.

The Hawkeyes rank fourth in the nation in scoring defense holding opponents to 12.2 points a game. Only Penn State has scored more than 16 points against Iowa this season.

Michigan isn't going for style points in this matchup. The Wolverines have become heavily ground-oriented. They'll be content to stay on the ground - like they did against Penn State and Ohio State - and grind out a victory while the clock keeps moving. This is tremendously conducive when taking an underdog getting this many points.

It's difficult enough being the visiting team when playing on Thursday night. But it's even worse for the Seahawks because Geno Smith isn't 100 percent and the opponent is Dallas.

The Cowboys have been invincible at home winning 13 in a row. They are 5-0 SU and ATS this season at AT&T Stadium. All five of the Cowboys' home victories have been by at least 20 points. These wins have come against the Jets, Patriots, Rams, Giants and Commanders.

Not good competition. But then again Seattle isn't very good right now. Seattle is 1-3 in its last four games with the lone victory during this span coming against Washington. Smith is cold and dealing with a sore elbow. Kenneth Walker III, the Seahawks' best runner, isn't expected to play. The Seahawks have only scored three touchdowns offensively during their last four games.

I don't see Smith keeping pace with Dak Prescott, who is the hottest quarterback in the NFL with an 18-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

I'm buying low here on Davidson after the Wildcats were slaughtered by Saint Mary's, 89-55, five days ago. Before that game, Davidson had not lost by more than three points all season.

Saint Mary's can do that to an opponent. Davidson is much better than that.

Charlotte is 3-0 at home, but the 49ers have played easy competition in those games: Maine, Utah Valley and Georgia State.

This is going to be a low-scoring game where every basket counts. Charlotte nipped Davidson by two points in overtime last year. So the Wildcats also have revenge motivation.

Davidson doesn't rely on one scorer. The Wildcats have a balanced attack. They play extremely slow. Charlotte plays at even a slower tempo, ranking 352nd out of 362 Division I teams in pace.

Points are going to be at a premium. So glad to get even this many.

Fading New Mexico State in an obvious letdown spot is the major part of my handicap. The Aggies not only have punched their ticket to face Liberty in the Conference USA championship game, but could also have trouble getting up for this game after what happened last week.

What happened last week was the Aggies upsetting Auburn, 31-10, as 25-point road 'dogs. Never in 27 previous attempts had New Mexico State defeated an SEC opponent.

Jacksonville State has won three in a row. The Gamecocks are 8-3 and rank third in the nation in rushing entering this week. 

The Lions, to the surprise of their many cynics, are living up to their considerable preseason hype. They are 8-2. Detroit hasn't been that good through 10 games since 1962. The Lions happened to host the Packers that year, too, in their annual Thanksgiving game. Detroit dealt Vince Lombardi's Packers their only defeat of that season in that Thanksgiving matchup.

After that game, Lombardi said the Packers would never again play the Lions on Thanksgiving. The Packers should have followed Lombardi's wishes because this is a terrible situational spot for them.

As the Lions ascend, the Packers descend. Green Bay is 2-5 in its last seven games. The short week really hurts the Packers here as they won't have Aaron Jones and may not have A.J. Dillon, who has a groin injury. The Packers are in free agent country without those two running backs. They also could be without two of their better receivers with Dontayvion Wicks and tight end Luke Musgrave questionable.

The Packers have been depleted in the secondary with possibly all four starters out. They were hoping to get some of them back, but this early-week game is a hindrance to that. Expect Jared Goff to have a much better game than he had against the Bears last week. Goff was on his way to his worst game of the season throwing a season-high three interceptions against the Bears. Yet Detroit still pulled out a five-point victory.

Green Bay was much more optimistic when it hosted the Lions in late September. That was on a Thursday, too. The Packers laid an egg falling behind, 27-3, at halftime before losing, 34-20. The poorly coached Packers defense couldn't contain straight-ahead runner David Montgomery, who rushed for 121 yards and powered to three touchdowns.

It was the fourth straight time the Lions have defeated Green Bay. Look for the Lions to make it five straight victories in convincing fashion.

I can't see Rice hanging in against New Mexico in this neutral site matchup in Henderson, Nevada as part of the Ball Dawgs Classic Tournament. Rice has lost three in a row and ranks 339th in scoring defense giving up 82.3 points and 346th in defensive field goal percentage.

The Lobos have a height advantage and a fast-paced, prolific offense that can exploit the Owls' defensive holes.

New Mexico ranks 58th in the latest KenPom rankings, while Rice is rated 200th.

Down all of their best backcourt scorers with Damian Lillard traded and Anfernee Simons, Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson each hurt, the Trail Blazers are tough to get behind. Portland has lost seven in a row and is the lowest-scoring team in the NBA. 

I get that. 

But this spot is good for the Trail Blazers taking this many points. 

Phoenix just won a pair of 3-point road games at Utah - always a difficult place to win at - with the last one coming in overtime this past Sunday. That gives the Suns three straight victories. They've been gone from Phoenix for nearly a week. Now they return home perhaps distracted by the upcoming holiday and knowing they have a marquee home game on deck against Golden State on Wednesday. I don't see the Suns fired-up for this matchup. 

The most motivated player on the court could be Portland center Deandre Ayton, who played for the Suns for five seasons before being traded to the Trail Blazers in late September. Ayton could look for his shots more against his former team. That would be a good thing. 

The Trail Blazers certainly will want to give a better accounting of themselves after an embarrassing, 134-91, home loss to the Thunder in their last game two nights ago. If you discount that game, the Trail Blazers would be 5-4 ATS in their last nine games. 

The Suns are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games. They haven't won by more than 13 points in eight of their past 10 games with one of those victories being by 14 points against the Pistons.

As inconsistent as the Chargers are, I don't see them losing to the Packers. 

Poorly coached on defense and way too inexperienced on offense, the Packers are rapidly heading toward lower-echelon status with their only victory in their last six games coming against the Brett Rypien-led Rams at home. 

Justin Herbert can light up a vulnerable, banged-up Green Bay secondary that was forced to start inexperienced backup cornerbacks Carrington Valetine and Corey Ballentine last Sunday. 

Jordan Love has an 8-to-13 touchdown-to-giveaway ratio in his last seven games. The Chargers can protect their secondary because they have some excellent pass rushers and Green Bay's offensive line has regressed to mediocre status.

The Chargers catch a weather break, too, with the forecast calling for temperatures in the high 40's with no rain and little wind.

The 5-6 Cavaliers aren't good enough to overlook any opponent, especially when they might be without their assist leader and third-leading scorer, Darius Garland. He's questionable with a neck injury that kept him out of Clevaland's last game. That was a 14-point road victory against the Trail Blazers this past Wednesday.

But as the Cavaliers return from a long four-game road trip that concluded in Portland, it might be difficult for Cleveland to have its full focus and motivation against the Pistons because Detroit has lost nine in a row.

The youthful Pistons have played tough teams close recently, though. Detroit's last four results have been a six-point loss to the Hawks, an 11-point defeat to the Bulls, an eight-point loss to the 76ers and a two-point defeat to the Bucks. The Bucks, 76ers and Hawks are all better than Cleveland and they beat the Pistons by fewer points than this point spread.

Detroit is 3-1 ATS when catching more than eight points this season.

Oklahoma is looking for a strong season in its final year in the Big 12 Conference. That means a return to the NCAA Tournament, something that didn't happen last season. So the Sooners will look to win by lopsided margins.

The Sooners did just that in their first two games beating Central Michigan by 30 points and Mississippi Valley State by 39 points, covering both games. This matchup sets up as another blowout for Oklahoma.

The Sooners' strength is 3-point shooting. Texas State's major weakness is 3-point defense and making 3-pointers. The Bobcats finished 310th in 3-point field goal percentage last season and 314th in defending against 3-pointers.

This also is the Bobcats' third consecutive road contest. Oklahoma has been home all season.

The Seahawks are far from an elite team. But they are not nearly as bad as they appeared against the Ravens this past Sunday. Credit to Baltimore, which looked like the best team in football with that 37-3 victory.

Now the Seahawks drop down from playing the best defense to one of the worst - and they get the Commanders at home. Washington was terrible defensively before they dealt Chase Young and Montez Sweat away. Now the Commanders don't have a pass rush to go with their vulnerable secondary.

Pete Carroll is going to have the Seahawks ready to play following the debacle against the Ravens.

Geno Smith can look good against a bottom-five defense given the weapons Seattle has.

Seattle's defense had been looking pretty good until that Ravens game. The Seahawks had held their previous four opponents to an average of 12.5 points. Washington has become a one-dimensional passing team. Sam Howell has good statistics because the Commanders have become so heavily pass-oriented. But he's average at best and the Commanders have trouble protecting him giving up 44 sacks, second-most in the NFL.

Note, too, the situational aspects. Not only are the Seahawks returning home following a humiliating loss, Washington is fat and happy after beating Bill Belichick's Patriots. This marks Washington's second consecutive road game and an East to West travel itinerary. The Commanders' last seven games all have been played on East Coast time.

Texas holds numerous edges against TCU. The Longhorns' offense still kept humming the past two games under backup QB Maalik Murphy producing 68 points and more than 800 yards of offense in beating Kansas State and BYU. But Murphy committed four turnovers. The Longhorns survived a scare from Kansas State last week before prevailing in overtime. 

The Longhorns keep all of their offensive edges, but should play a much cleaner game with starting QB Quinn Ewers looking good in practice this week and cleared to play. Ewers has accounted for 18 TD's with three interceptions. He should have success throwing against the Horned Frogs' 83rd ranked pass defense. 

TCU is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games. The Horned Frogs were hammered by Kansas State, 41-3, two games ago. I don't see them doing much against a Longhorns' defense that holds foes to fewer than 18 points a game and ranks 33rd in fewest yards allowed. 

The 4-5 Horned Frogs have been one of the most disappointing teams in the nation. 

Both teams played and won Wednesday night. Giannis Antetokounmpo received some unexpected extra rest. Antetokounmpo logged only 22 minutes because he was tossed midway through the third quarter against the Pistons after making a slam dunk basket. Apparently the referees thought people were paying to watch them instead of Antetokounmpo.

The Bucks and Antetokounmpo should be extra fired-up because of that. The Bucks are 5-2. Indiana is 5-3. Milwaukee is the better team and has played the tougher schedule. The Pacers have only met one opponent that has a winning record.

The Pacers rank first in scoring, but are a bottom-five defensive team. They also carry a high fatigue ranking. This will be their fifth game in seven days.

The Bucks held Khris Middleton out of last night's game for knee injury management in the hopes he'll be ready for this more important game.

Miami of Ohio has the second-best overall record in the Mid-American Conference behind 8-1 Toledo. The 7-2 RedHawks' only losses have been to the Miami Hurricanes opening week and Toledo.

Akron is 2-7. The Zips' lone win in the MAC came last Wednesday in dramatic style. The Zips staged a highly unlikely rally by scoring 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to pull out a 31-27 victory against rival Kent State in their annual Wagon Wheel game. Akron scored the winning TD with 26 seconds left.

The Zips treated that matchup like their Super Bowl since they won't be going to a bowl game. It was the first time Akron claimed the Wagon Wheel since 2018.

So not only is Miami of Ohio a much better team than Akron, but the Zips are in a monster letdown spot.

Akron had lost by 27 points to Bowling Green in its previous game. Miami of Ohio defeated Bowling Green, 27-0.

Miami of Ohio holds opponents to just 19 points a game. Akron allows more than 29 points per game and ranks in the bottom-10 defensively in points allowed, yards allowed and run defense.

The Redhawks lost their starting QB Brett Gabbert for the season in their loss to Toledo. Miami of Ohio, though, wins in the trenches. The Redhawks beat Ohio, 30-16, as a 7 1/2-point road 'dog in their first full game last week without Gabbert. New starting QB Aveon Smith was 7-of-11 passing for 103 yards with one TD and no interceptions in that game.

I believe this number is too short. Vanderbilt came on strong last season, winning 10 of its last 11 regular-season games to earn an NIT bid where the Commodores reached the quarterfinals. Vanderbilt defeated five eventual NCAA Tournament participants down this stretch.

The Commodores have a deep and athletic backcourt headed by returning guards, Ezra Manjon and Tyrin Lawrence.

Presbyterian is off a 5-27 season in which it lost its last 18 games. The Blue Hose was picked to finish last in the Big South during the league's preseason poll. Their two top scorers transferred and they are breaking in eight new players. The Blue Hose lack the athleticism to slow down Vanderbilt's guards.

The Chargers looked great in their last game destroying the Bears at home, 30-13. But the buy sign rarely is on the Chargers because of Brandon Staley. It certainly isn't on then here with the Chargers road chalk against the Jets on Monday night.

Only once in their last 10 games, have the Chargers won two in a row. The Jets have played the tougher schedule and are 3-1 at home this season with point spread covers against the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles. They've beaten the Bills and Eagles straight-up, teams better than the Chargers.

Justin Herbert is off his finest game of the year. However, he was facing the Bears, who have no pass rush and entered this Week 9 ranked third-from-the-bottom in pass defense.

The Jets' defense is really hitting their stride with cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed back from injuries. The Jets rank fifth in pass defense. They've held their last three opponents to an average of 15 points a game.

Minus All-Pro center Corey Linsley, Herbert was sacked five times by the Chiefs two weeks ago. Herbert also is without two of his three best wide receivers with Mike Williams and Josh Palmer both out.  

Zach Wilson should have one of his better games. The Chargers give up 24 points a game and rank 31st in pass defense.

Defense trumps offense. That's what it comes down to in this matchup, especially with Alabama in a revenge spot.

LSU nipped the Crimson Tide, 32-31, in overtime at home last season. Now the Tide gets the Tigers in Tuscaloosa.

Alabama is 7-1 with a lone loss to Texas. Since that defeat, the Crimson Tide have rolled to six consecutive victories going 5-1 ATS.

The Crimson Tide rank in the top 17 in fewest points allowed and fewest yards given up per game. They are giving up just 15.1 points in their last six games.

LSU is the best offensive team in the country. Daniels is moving up on the Heisman Trophy list. But the Tigers are similar to USC, a great offense with a poor defense. LSU surrendered 31 points to Arkansas and 55 points to Mississippi. By comparison, Alabama held Mississippi to 10 points and Arkansas to 21 points.

The Tigers' defense is improving. However, Alabama's offense also has shown improvement. A key here is LSU injuries on defense. The Tigers will be without defensive tackle Mekhi Wingo and three of their best defensive backs.

I find excellent value getting Bowling Green at home laying less than a touchdown to Ball State. 

The Falcons have the better record because they are the superior team. Ball State has a terrible offense. The 2-6 Cardinals average a puny 16.1 points a game and rank 127th in total yards. They have used three quarterbacks, with none of them being any good. 

Ball State just snapped a four-game losing streak by beating Central Michigan, 24-17, this past Saturday as a 5-point home 'dog. That was the Cardinals' first MAC win in four games and makes them a little fat and happy going on the road for this short turnaround game. 

Bowling Green ranks in the top-30 in defensive total yards and pass defense. The Falcons are opportunistic, ranking fifth in takeaways with 12. The Falcons don't have an outstanding QB either, but they have a stud running back in Terion Stewart. He averages 6.1 yards per carry and has gone over 100 yards rushing in four of his last five games.

The Falcons are 4-4 and 2-2 in the MAC. They have played a tough schedule. Their losses are to unbeaten Michigan, unbeaten Liberty and to Ohio and Miami of Ohio, two of the top teams in the MAC. Bowling Green owns an impressive 38-27 road victory against Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets have defeated a pair of top-20 teams in North Carolina and Miami. 

Ball State is a big drop in class for Bowling Green.

Both the Raiders and Lions were humbled last week. The Lions were destroyed, 38-6, by the Ravens while the Raiders were embarrassed by the Bears, 30-12, who were giving rookie QB Tyson Bagent his first NFL start.

The Lions are a legitimate, good team. The Raiders aren't. I like the Lions to bounce back in a big way hosting their first nationally televised Monday night home game since 2018.

Detroit had won four consecutive games, all by double-digits, before losing to the Ravens.

Jared Goff plays much better at home inside a dome where cold and wind don't factor. The Lions remain without injured David Montgomery, but rookie Jahmyr Gibbs stepped up against the Ravens amassing 126 total yards and showing why he was a first-round draft pick.

Detroit's defense is much improved, especially against the run. But the Lions have trouble against mobile QB's. Lamar Jackson really hurt them last week. Jimmy Garoppolo is anything but mobile. He's also turnover-prone. The Raiders entered this Week 8 committing the most turnovers in the NFL with 15. Garoppolo has eight interceptions in just five games.

Las Vegas averages just 16 points a game and entered this week last in rushing, which doesn't say much for the highly disappointing Josh Jacobs.

The Bears are the Packers' oldest rival. But it's the Vikings who the Packers want to beat more than any other team. It has been that way for years. The spot sets up perfect for Green Bay to do just that.

The Vikings are coming off a stunning upset home win against the 49ers this past Monday now. That was their second win in a row having beaten the Bears during the NFL debut of rookie QB Tyson Bagent two weeks ago.

Minnesota is weak defensively, lacks a good ground attack and its passing game is down several notches without Justin Jefferson. The Vikings are an average team at best. They come into Green Bay on a short week flush with short-term success. They'll find a desperate Packers team with their season and manhood hanging in the balance following three straight losses, two coming on the road to the Raiders and Broncos, whose combined record is 5-9.

The Packers are an average team like the Vikings, but this is a great spot for them. They haven't played at home in four weeks and they get their best offensive player, Aaron Jones, back from injury. Jordan Love desperately needs Jones especially against the blitz-happy Vikings.

Love isn't as good as he looked during the first three games. But he isn't as bad as he's looked during the last three games.

Kirk Cousins is more turnover-prone than Love. The Vikings have committed 14 turnovers, which is second-most in the NFL next to the Raiders.

We saw North Carolina implode last season losing its last four games after a 9-1 start. The pattern continues this season. The Tar Heels were upset, 31-27, by visiting Virginia as a 24-point favorite last week. That halted the Tar Heels' six-game win streak to start the season and raises serious concerns about North Carolina. 

I think Drake Maye is the best quarterback in college football. But his surrounding talent isn't that good. Neither is North Carolina's defense. Virginia is a very weak offensive team.

Georgia Tech thrives as an underdog. The Yellow Jackets are 9-2 ATS (82 percent) the last 11 times when getting points. Georgia Tech was a heavy underdog to North Carolina each of the last two years. The Yellow Jackets not only covered against the Tar Heels the past two seasons, but beat them straight-up! 

The Yellow Jackets already have scored upset victories against fellow ACC opponents, Miami and Wake Forest, this season. They certainly are capable of not only covering this double-digit spread, but winning straight-up. 

Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are superstars.Their presence, though, makes the Mavericks overrated. Doncic may be the best player to have in fantasy basketball, but Dallas isn't that good. The roster is very mediocre once you get past Doncic and Irving.

The Mavericks had a losing record last season after acquiring the disgruntled Irving from the Nets. Dallas finished last season losing 18 of its last 25 games. The Mavericks haven't been good in the favorite's role either, 4-10 ATS the past 14 times as chalk.

The Nets enter this matchup after blowing a six-point lead to the Cavaliers with 84 seconds left in their opener. Brooklyn doesn't have the superstars anymore, but it has underrated scorers. Ben Simmons finally is healthy, too.

If the Nets need extra motivation, they have it up against Irving for the first time since he left Brooklyn.

This has been a close series with the past five games all being decided by four points or less.

I find this line to be short. The Celtics are an elite team and they got better during the off-season acquiring Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday.

The Knicks had their best season in a decade last season, but still are several rungs below the Celtics and did nothing to improve themselves in the off-season.

The Nuggets came together in impressive fashion last season winning 16 of 20 playoff games to capture the NBA championship. One of Denver's victims was the Lakers. 

After the Nuggets swept the Lakers, Denver coach Michael Malone said, "If anybody is still about the Lakers in the NBA Finals, that's on them. They've gone fishing. We're still playing.''

That flippant remark didn't sit well with the Lakers, especially LeBron James and Anthony Davis. 

Now the long wait is over for the Lakers. They get a rematch with the Nuggets on opening night. The Nuggets will be raising their championship banner and getting their rings among the many pre-game festivities - and distractions for them. 

The Lakers certainly should be the more motivated and focused team. They also have a healthy James and Davis and a deeper bench than the Nuggets, who lost key reserve Bruce Brown and Jeff Green.

The Vikings played their first game without Justin Jefferson this past Sunday. They managed only 220 yards of total offense, reaching the red zone just once. Yet they managed to win because they were playing the Bears, who had lost Justin Fields to injury during the game.

The 49ers don't need Christian McCaffrey to beat the Vikings.

San Francisco is in a huge bounce-back spot after getting upset by the Browns in Cleveland last Sunday. That game was played in windy conditions, which bothered Brock Purdy. This game is being played in a dome and Purdy is stepping down in defensive class going from the No. 1 defense to a below average one that will be minus one of its best interior players with Marcus Davenport out.

The 49ers were averaging 33.4 points looking like the best team in the NFL before running into the Browns. Even with that loss, San Francisco has covered 13 of its last 17 games.

The Vikings are going to struggle to dent a 49ers defense that gives up the fewest points per game, ranks No. 3 in fewest yards allowed and has 11 takeaways. San Francisco has the best turnover ratio in the league at plus 8, while the Vikings are minus 7 in takeaways/giveaways.

This is the lowest football total of the season. So taking more than a field goal where points are going to be at an absolute premium certainly makes sense. 

But that's not just why I like Minnesota so much. 

Iowa is the most bogus Top-25 team in the nation. The Hawkeyes somehow are 6-1 despite being outgained by an average of 50 yards per game! The Hawkeyes have only outgained one of their opponents and that was 2-5 Western Michigan, a bad MAC team. 

Yes, Iowa has a great defense as it usually has. But the Hawkeyes have no offense. They've lost their starting QB, Cade McNamara, and now tight end Erick All, one of their best players, also is done for the season. 

Minnesota doesn't have a QB edge too often, but they do here with strong-armed Athan Kaliakmanis against Deacon Hill, who might be the worst starting QB in the country. Hill was 6-for-14 for 37 yards against Wisconsin last week. His average attempted pass was for just 2.2 yards. The Hawkeyes still managed to beat the Badgers, whose quarterback Tanner Mordecai, was injured in the game. 

Minnesota is well rested having had a bye last week. The 3-3 Gophers are a mediocre Big Ten team. They can't step up against the conference's Big Three of Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. But they are capable of beating any other Big Ten team, including the much-overrated Hawkeyes.

This is a lot of points to lay in a division matchup for the Chiefs. Aside from walloping the Bears, the Chiefs haven't looked that sharp offensively. Discount that Bears game and the Chiefs are averaging 21.7 points in their four other games.

Denver's defense is way down from previous seasons. But it's not as bad as the Dolphins, with their 4X100 team of relay runners, made it look during that 70-20 Week 3 Miami victory.

Patrick Mahomes is still getting acclimated to his young wide receiving group. They are not making Mahomes look good. Mahomes already has thrown four interceptions. Travis Kelce is likely to play, but he's not 100 percent. The weather conditions favor more running than usual with the wind factor at 15-25 mph. The total has gone way down because of that.

Isiah Pacheco has emerged as Kansas City's top runner. Nothing against Pacheco, but backing Denver I'd rather see much more of him than Mahomes. The Broncos are expected to get back from injury their best running back, Javonte Williams.

As bad as the Broncos were last season, they played the Chiefs tough in both games losing, 34- 28 and 27-24. The Broncos are supposed to be better coached this year.

Certainly the Broncos won't lack motivation knowing they have a chance to redeem themselves for their disappointing season. Note that two of Denver's four losses were by a combined three points. If the Broncos would have won those games and not blown a second-half lead against the Jets last week, they would be 4-1 and the point spread would be much lower.

 I'm buying low on the Bengals. This is a circle-the-wagons game for them. A loss to the Cardinals would put Cincinnati at 1-4 with its next three games against the Seahawks, 49ers and Bills.

Joe Burrow is supposed to be the healthiest he's been all season, according to Zac Taylor, and the Cardinals are a bottom-five caliber opponent.

Even if he's just 75 percent, Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase should enjoy success against an Arizona defense that gave up 31 points to the Giants and allowed Brock Purdy to go 20-of-21 passing while averaging 13.5 yards per completion last week.

The Bengals have also been a major disappointment defensively. I expect a turnaround as Joshua Dobbs is the worst QB and his skill position weapons are the worst the Bengals have faced all season.

The Cardinals aren't demoralized yet. They have played hard. But they could be the least-talented team in the NFL. The Bengals won't be overlooking them as other opponents have.

To say Sam Houston State is struggling transitioning into the FCS would be an understatement. The Bearkats are 0-5 and have by far the worst offense in the nation averaging 9.5 points and 219.8 yards a game.

These numbers include a surprising performance against Jacksonville State last Thursday when the Bearkats almost upset the Gamecocks losing, 35-28, in overtime.

But while the Bearkats are off a tough overtime loss, Liberty was idle last week. The Flames are 4-0 SU and ATS. They are prime contenders to win Conference USA. They've produced 33 or more points in each of their games. All of their victories have been by double-digits. QB Kaidon Salter has an 11-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's only been sacked three times.

Sam Houston State ranks 116th in run defense. So Liberty should have its way both on the ground and through the air.

Jacksonville State is 4-1 while Middle Tennessee State is 1-4. Yet the Blue Raiders are the favorites. 

Surprised? Don't be. Middle Tennessee State is the right side. 

The Blue Raiders have played a far tougher schedule than Jacksonville State going against Alabama, Missouri - who they lost to by just four points on the road - Colorado State and Western Kentucky. 

Middle Tennessee State desperately needs to win this home game to even its Conference USA record to 1-1. 

Jacksonville State had to come from two touchdowns behind to defeat winless Sam Houston State in overtime, 35-28. Sam Houston State entered that matchup as the most punchless team in the nation having scored 10 points during its first three games. 

That game was played this past Thursday. So the Gamecocks will be playing a second consecutive road game within the span of six days. 

How wretched are the Bears? 

The winless Broncos, who just lost by 50 points, are road favorites against them.

And Denver is the right side. 

Chicago is the worst team in the NFL right now. Worse, the Bears know it. They have dissension, multiple injuries on their offensive line and in the secondary and Justin Fields isn't on the same page with the coaching staff. As exciting as he is, Fields remains an unpolished project who is not accurate and holds the ball too long. He's been sacked 13 times. The Bears have one sack by comparison. 

The Broncos have looked as bad with Sean Payton as they did with Nathaniel Hackett. Maybe that should reduce Payton's considerable ego. But Payton can coach. Russell Wilson is playing better than last season and Denver's defense still is better than Chicago's. The Bears don't have nearly the speed or passing accuracy to light up the Broncos' defense the way the Dolphins did. 

The Bears have lost 13 straight games. They are 1-16 SU, 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games. 

One team finally gets back on track here - and it's not the Bears. 

New York picked a bad time to play its worst game of the season. That came this past Sunday in Game 1 of its semifinal playoff series against Connecticut. The Sun whipped the Liberty, 78-63. While it was the Liberty's worst showing of the season, it was the Sun's most consistent game of the season, according to their coach, Stephanie White.

Connecticut is the best defensive team in the WNBA. But New York is the second-highest scoring team in the league and also ranks No. 2 in field goal percentage. The Liberty got the better of the Sun in all four of their regular-season games, winning by an average margin of 15 points.

The Liberty are 35-9 counting the postseason. They haven't lost two straight games all season. The Liberty won their next game following a defeat by an average of 16.3 points.

So I see New York beating the Sun by double-digits.

The record shows both the Eagles and Buccaneers to be 2-0. But the Buccaneers are at least two levels behind Philadelphia.

The Eagles, too, are on an extra rest having played in the Week 2 Thursday game. The Eagles are due to play better as their players adjust to new coordinators. The extra rest and practice time should come in handy for them here.

Tampa Bay has beaten the winless Bears and winless Vikings. The Buccaneers are plus 5 in turnover ratio during these victories. The Buccaneers' defense still has good players, but it's not great anymore. I'm not buying the early hype on Baker Mayfield either. He's looked better than he did the previous couple of seasons, but he's still Baker Mayfield with severe limitations.

The Eagles not only have the edges at the skill positions - Jalen Hurts is 19-1 in his last 20 regular-season starts - but also have the advantage in the trenches. Philadelphia is the second-leading rushing team and ranks No. 1 in run defense. Mayfield isn't going to have a run game to keep the Eagles' pass rushers honest. The Eagles easily led the NFL in sacks last season with 70.

Through the first six quarters of their season, the Giants were outscored, 60-0. They regrouped to pull out a 31-28 victory against the Cardinals - the worst team in the NFL. Scoring 31 points in the second half to pull out that road victory in the Arizona desert has to take a lot out of the Giants both physically and mentally. They lost their superstar running back, Saquan Barkley, to an ankle injury, too, in that win.

The NFL did the Giants no favor by making them the road team for a Thursday game against the 49ers, who are one of the three-best teams in the NFL.

I don't see how the Giants can stay within single-digits of the 49ers given the short-week circumstances and the quality of the defenses.

Brock Purdy is 10-0 in games he has started and finished for the 49ers. The Giants surrendered four TD's and nearly 400 yards to the pop-gun offense of the Cardinals. Now they go from Joshua Dobbs and his cast of grunts to Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk backed by a real coaching staff.

Daniel Jones needs weapons to be successful. He won't have his main one, Barkley. His wide receivers don't frighten anyone least of all the 49ers.

This one isn't going to be close.

Good job by Minnesota taking this WNBA playoff series to a deciding third game. The Lynx are home, but should be bigger underdogs than this. Connecticut is a much better team than Minnesota.

The Suns showed that in Game 1 winning by 30 points. The Lynx, though, pulled out an 82-75 win this past Sunday to even the series.

Now the Lynx have the Sun's full attention.

Connecticut led the WNBA in defense and had the fourth-highest scoring offense. Alyssa Thomas is a strong MVP candidate. She's like the Oscar Robertson of the WNBA with her ability to record triple-double games.

Minnesota ranked ninth in scoring and was second-to-last on defense.

Trends favor Connecticut, too. The Sun are 4-0 ATS the past four times following a loss and are 15-5-1 the last 21 games when playing on two days rest.

The Lynx are 2-5 ATS the last seven times after covering and are 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing with two days rest.

Technically the Padres haven't been eliminated yet from the playoffs. Realistically yes, though, trailing by 5 1/2 games for the final NL wild-card spot with 11 games to go.

The underachieving Padres waited too long to put together their first five-game win streak of the season.

But the Padres want to achieve some kind of distinction from their disappointing season. That would be to get Blake Snell the Cy Young Award. Snell is a strong candidate for that honor with a 14-9 record and the league's lowest ERA at 2.43 and 217 strikeouts in 167 innings.

Snell is 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his last three starts - and that was going against the Dodgers, Astros and Giants. The feeble Rockies are batting .231 on the road. They rank second-to-last in slugging percentage and on-base percentage away from Coors Field.

Snell should dominate a youthful, rebuilding Colorado lineup while his teammates should batter Colorado starter Ryan Feltner and a Colorado bullpen that has the highest ERA in the majors at 5.29.

Feltner hasn't pitched since May 13 when he sustained a skull fracture after getting hit in the head by a line drive. Feltner is 2-3 on the season with a 5.86 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. The Rockies probably will have Feltner on a pitch count.

San Diego is averaging eight runs per game during its last eight games. That hot-hitting definitely should continue here.

The timing for this matchup couldn't be worse for the Jets. They have to travel on a short week following their roller-coaster emotional Monday night home upset overtime victory against the Bills. Their opponent happens to be the Cowboys, who I rank with the 49ers as being the best teams in the NFL right now. 

Dallas may have the No. 1 defense in the league after adding star cornerback Stephon Gilmore during the off-season. The Cowboys have a devastating pass rush led by Defensive MVP favorite Micah Parsons. Dallas sacked Daniel Jones seven times in its 40-0 destruction of the Giants this past Sunday night. The Cowboys generated pressure on 62 percent of Jones' dropbacks, the fourth-highest pressure rate in the last five years. 

If Aaron Rodgers didn't get hurt against the Bills, he probably wasn't going to survive this game given the Jets' uncertain offensive line play. Zach Wilson has had two years to show he isn't a bust. So far he's done nothing to dispel that. His inaccurate dink-and-dunk approach isn't going to be anywhere close to keeping up with the Cowboys' high-powered offense that has been upgraded with Tony Pollard becoming the lead running back and addition of now-motivated wide receiver Brandin Cooks. 

Yes, the Jets' defense is good. But they aren't going to be able to sustain the motivation and emotional edge they had against the Bills. 

Kudos to Texas for upsetting Alabama on the road last week. That victory vaulted the Longhorns into a top-five rating in the AP poll for the first time since 2010.

It also puts the Longhorns in danger of letting down against Wyoming, especially since they have a bigger game on deck when they play at Baylor next week to begin Big 12 Conference play.

Texas has great skill position talent, but Wyoming isn't getting enough respect.

The Cowboys are a solid Mountain West Conference program under Craig Bohl. They've gone bowling five of the past six years, not including the 2020 shortened Covid season.

Wyoming is 2-0. The Cowboys are 8-2-1 ATS the last two plus seasons when taking a field goal or more. They've already scored one major upset this year defeating Texas Tech, 35-33 in overtime, as 13 1/2-point home 'dogs.

The Cowboys are not flashy. But they have a solid defense, can run the ball effectively and have a competent QB in Andrew Peasley.

Are the Jets ready for prime time? The answer is yes and they'll prove that here.

Buffalo could only average 18.5 points in its two games against the Jets when the teams split last season. The Jets defense looks even better this season and their offense is far better with Aaron Rodgers on board.

The prideful Rodgers is at his best when he feels he has something to prove after being with the Packers for 15 seasons. During his time in Green Bay, Rodgers was a home underdog just eight times as a starting quarterback. The Packers covered seven of those eight games.

Rodgers is rejuvenated and has better weapons than he's had with emerging superstar wide receiver Garrett Wilson, running backs Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook along with his two Green Bay security blankets, Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb.

Buffalo's defense is down from last season with linebacker Tremaine Edmunds gone, edge pass rusher Von Miller injured and the secondary aged and banged-up.

I like the Jets' roster better than Buffalo's.

Jets fans haven't been this excited about their team's Super Bowl chances since Joe Namath was making bold predictions. New York's home field is worth more than it normally is given these Monday night and Rodgers' Jets debut circumstances.

Getting points is just a bonus.

Desperation versus exhaustion should spell a win and cover for host Ottawa.

The Redblacks are in circle-the-wagons mode having lost five in a row with three of those defeats coming by a combined seven points. They have double revenge against Hamilton and fully realize this is their last week at getting an opponent that has a losing record. The rest of Ottawa's schedule is against foes that currently all have winning records.

There should not be any excuse for the Redblacks because this is a golden spot for them. They were idle last week, while the Tiger-Cats are on a very short week having played rival Toronto this past Monday. The Tiger-Cats went all out trying to come back from a 17-0 deficit before losing to the Argonauts, 41-28.

Hamilton gives up the second-most points per game in the league at 27.5 while ranking third-from-the-bottom in total defensive yards.

Ottawa dual threat Dustin Crum is a good enough quarterback to take advantage.

I'll take this tradeoff of probably no Travis Kelce for a drop in the betting line.

Patrick Mahomes can make any receiving group look good. The guys he has minus Kelce are not big names, but they all have special skill-sets and talents. I include Kadarius Toney (yes he's currently healthy), Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes Scantling, Rashee Rice and running back Jerick McKinnon out of the backfield on this list.

Keep in mind, too, who Mahomes is facing. The Lions came on strong at the end of last season, but their defense is very weak. Detroit gave up the most yards last season and ranked 28th in scoring defense. The Lions' new look secondary is vulnerable to Mahomes.

The Chiefs are 5-0 SU, 4-1 with Mahomes as their starting quarterback opening week, winning by an average of 13 points. The Chiefs have scored at least 33 points in each of their last five season-openers.

It's not a fluke the Chiefs are 9-1 in their season-openers under Andy Reid, who could be the best coach ever with extra time to prepare. The Chiefs won six of those nine games by double-digits.

Player Prop:

David Montgomery Over 51.5 yards rushing.

The Lions are looking to have a balanced offense. That's why they signed David Montgomery and drafted Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick. Montgomery is going to get the most carries. The Lions already have said they don't want to overuse Gibbs early in the season and that he'll be used a lot for catching passes.

Jamaal Williams led the Lions in rushing last season with 1,066. That was 11th-highest in the NFL. It comes out to 62.7 yards per game. Detroit preferred Montgomery above Williams.

The Chiefs finished 11th in run defense, giving up 107.2 yards rushing per game. That number shoots up 20 yards higher if star defensive lineman Chris Jones doesn't play and Jones is a holdout.

Look for Montgomery to get enough carries to go Over this number.

Thanks to Mike Elko, Duke is more than a basketball school when it comes to sports. Elko has turned the Blue Devils around. Duke went 9-4 in Elko's first season last year after going a combined 5-18 the previous two seasons. The Blue Devils capped off their magical season beating UCF, 30-13, in the Military Bowl.

This will be one of the Blue Devil's biggest home football games ever having the national spotlight on them for Labor Day.

Clemson hasn't been the dominant power of a few seasons ago. Sure the Tigers have star power. But Duke is no one-year fluke. The Blue Devils have star power, too, including QB Riley Leonard. The dual threat QB accounted for 33 TD's and more than 3,600 yards of total offense last season.

Duke retained nearly 100 percent of its offensive production from last season and some very good defensive players, including lineman DeWayne Carter and safety Brandon Johnson. The Blue Devils ranked 28th in rush defense in 2022 and 37th in scoring defense holding foes to 22 points a game.

Phoenix has packed in its season, failing to make the playoffs. The Mercury have lost seven in a row. They are 1-17 on the road. This is their second-to-last road game of the season.

Diana Taurasi and Sophie Cunningham are both out with injuries. Those are Phoenix's second and third-best players.

Minnesota is 18-19 and looking to clinch a playoff spot.

South Carolina covered four of its last five regular-season games last year as an underdog, including upsetting then No. 5 Tennessee and No. 7 Clemson straight-up.

So the Gamecocks are more than capable of beating North Carolina straight-up as a small 'dog. 

There's been a lot of preseason publicity about North Carolina QB Drake Maye. He could be a top-three Heisman Trophy contender. The strength of South Carolina's defense is its secondary, though. The Gamecocks have three starters back from a secondary that led the SEC in interceptions last season.

South Carolina also has a very good QB, too, in Shane Rattler. He's a gunslinger and facing a Tar Heels secondary that ranked 111th in pass defense.

The Gamecocks also get the special teams checkmark thanks to coach Shane Beamer, who like his father, Frank, has outstanding special teams. 

I'm not impressed with Miami coach Mario Cristobal. The Hurricanes covered exactly one game last year during his first season as head coach with them. Cristobal is back, but Miami is breaking in new coordinators on both sides of the ball.

The Hurricanes also have a much bigger game on deck when they host Texas A&M in Week 2. I doubt they'll want to show much in this game.
Miami of Ohio is a legitimate sleeper in the MAC. The RedHawks could have the best defense in their conference. They return 16 starts, including nine on defense.

The RedHawks' offense should be improved with a healthy Brett Gabbert at quarterback. He played only four games last year.
Miami will be satisfied with a victory. I don't see the blowout that this point spread projects.

Coaching, not talent, has been Nebraska's downfall during the last five years of the ill-fated Scott Frost era.

Finally the Cornhuskers brought in a legitimate college football coach in Matt Rhule. Nebraska went 4-8 last year with five of those defeats coming by an average of four points. So now with a huge coaching upgrade and the superior quarterback, I see the Cornhuskers hanging in - if not pulling the outright upset - against Minnesota.

The Golden Gophers are a good, but not great team. They also lost a number of key players, including career rushing leader Mo Ibrahim and QB Tanner Morgan, who was a four-year starter. I wasn't a fan of Morgan and am even less enthralled with Minnesota's new starting QB, Athan Kaliakmanis. He has a big arm, but lacks accuracy. He had a 3-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio last year and a completion percentage of only 54.1 percent.

Minnesota is a grind-out type of team. Not the kind that can easily cover big point spreads. The Gophers beat Nebraska, 20-13, on the road last season and Nebraska should be better this season.

Jeff Sims gives Nebraska an experienced athletic dual-threat at quarterback. Sims compiled more than 5,600 yards of total offense in three seasons at Georgia Tech. Sims now gets to play behind an experienced offensive line with better skill-position talent.

So look for a close game here.

The White Sox are garbage. They are 28 games below .500 because they rank 25th in runs, 26th in ERA and have a dreadful bullpen.

Baltimore is the opposite. The Orioles are an American League-best 82-49. They have been the most profitable team for bettors.

One reason for this is a below-the-radar pitcher named Dean Kremer. His 4.31 ERA may look unimposing, but Baltimore is 12-3 in his home starts this season. Kremer has made three starts this month at Camden Yards. He's 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA in those outings.

The Orioles crushed the listless White Sox, 9-0, on Monday. That was Baltimore's eighth win in its last 10 games. The Orioles can't afford a letdown with just a 2 1/2-game lead on the Rays in the AL East Division.

The White Sox are 5-11 in their last 16 games. They've lost by more than one run during each of their past seven defeats. During this span, the White Sox's average loss is by 7.7 runs.

I don't see the White Sox getting turned around against this opponent with rookie Jesse Scholtens on the mound. He's 1-6 with a 4.15 ERA. Scholtens is 0-2 with a 7.80 ERA in his last three starts. The White Sox's bullpen, which lacks a legitimate closer, has the fifth-highest ERA in baseball.

So I see another kill spot for the Orioles setting up this run line winner.

Edmonton is the worst team in the Canadian Football League and has lost 22 straight home games.

But I'm counting on the Elks to put an end to those two horrible marks.

Edmonton is riding momentum for the first time this season following a 24-10 road upset victory against Hamilton last week. That road upset win looks even more impressive after Hamilton upset BC - the third-best team in the CFL - as a 12-point road underdog Saturday night.

The Elks finally appear to have a decent QB in dual-threat Tre Ford. He threw for 174 yards and two TD's while rushing for 60 yards on five carries in Edmonton's win against Hamilton. The Elks are averaging 26.5 points in their last two games versus Hamilton and Winnipeg, which has the most victories in the CFL this season and gives up the second-fewest points, with offensive coordinator Jarious Jackson taking over the play-calling for Edmonton.

Edmonton gets to go against an Ottawa defense that gives up the most passing yards and third-most overall yards.

The Redblacks are 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS in their last four games.

So the arrow finally is pointing up for an Edmonton home victory.

Vanderbilt buried Hawaii, 63-10, in last year's season-opener in Hawaii. No, the Commodores aren't likely to win by 53 points again. But they should be able to cover this margin at home.

The Commodores went 5-7 last season, while posting SEC upset victories against Florida and Kentucky during the last three weeks of the season. Vanderbilt has a number of good returning veterans on offense. Hawaii had one of the worst defenses in the country in 2022 giving up 34.7 points - ranking 124th - and were 115th in total defense.

After averaging fewer than 20 points a game last season, Hawaii is going to a run-and-shoot offense in Timmy Chang's second year as the Rainbow Warriors' head coach. It's going to take time for this new offense to click.

Vanderbilt holds edges all across the board.

Certain coaches don't care about preseason. The Chargers' Brandon Staley is one such fellow.

The Chargers' only victory during their last seven preseason games came against the Rams, whose coach, Sean McVay, cares even less about preseason than Staley.

This is a lot of points to lay in an exhibition game. But it's justified.

The 49ers are expected to play starters. They also have much better depth than the Chargers and a far stronger quarterback rotation with Brock Purdy, Sam Darnold and Trey Lance.

The Chargers can't risk an injury to Justin Herbert, or any of their other stars, because they are so thin with a major talent dropoff from starters to reserves.

That means LA will be going with a quarterback rotation of Easton Stick and seventh-round rookie draft choice Max Dugan.

The 49ers are home and have fierce competition in their secondary that needs to be sorted out. They'll also want to showcase Lance so they'll be doing all they can to make him and their offense look good.

It's well noted that Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in 16 years as Steelers head coach. It's not so well known that Tomlin also has a great record in preseason. Pittsburgh is 17-4 SU, 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 preseason games.

The Steelers have looked impressive again this preseason. They are 2-0, scoring 27 points in each of their victories against the Buccaneers and Bills while holding those two foes to an average of 16 points.

Pittsburgh has unleashed an aggressive passing attack that has worked well. Kenny Pickett has led the Steelers to three touchdown drives of longer than 25 yards. The Steelers have a much better QB rotation than Atlanta and are the deeper team across the board. Pittsburgh backup QB Mitch Trubisky is arguably better than Atlanta starting QB Desmond Ridder. He certainly has more experience mobility. Mason Rudolph is a plus as far as third-string QB's go when it comes to preseason.

The Falcons had 13 penalties for 102 yards during their 13-13 lackluster home tie with the Bengals last week. Falcons coach Arthur Smith wouldn't commit to playing any of his starters against the Steelers after using his starters against Cincinnati.

In the wacky world of preseason football what counts heavily are the quality of backup quarterbacks and how serious the head coach is about wanting to win the game.

We have clear indications in this matchup - and they point to a Saints victory and likely cover.

New Orleans coach Dennis Allen isn't afraid to go with his regulars. Both Derek Carr and second-string Jameis Winston played opening week for the Saints. The Saints beat the Chiefs, 26-24, with Carr and Winston each leading a TD drive. Carr and Winston, who could be the best backup QB in the NFL, are expected to play again today. Allen wants to build momentum after New Orleans went a dismal 7-10 in his first year as its head coach last season.

Look for Alvin Kamara to get touches, too. Kamara is suspended for the first three games. So Allen needs to get him reps.

Chargers coach Brandon Staley has an opposite approach about preseason - and for good reason. The Chargers have great starting talent, but are thin depth-wise. They can't afford injuries, which they were hit with last season. So Staley is likely to use his second and third-stringers throughout the game. That includes undistinguished reserve QB's Easton Stick and Max Duggan.

Staley's preseason record is 2-5. The Chargers went 0-3 SU and ATS in preseason last year, losing by an average of 12.6 points. If there's one coach who cares even less about winning during preseason than Staley it's Sean McVay and the Rams. The Chargers happened to play the Rams last week in their opener and won, 34-17.

But the oddsmakers know the real story. That's why they made the Saints more than a field goal road favorite here.

Prize rookie QB Bryce Young is going to play just like he did during Week 1 of the preseason last week. That's a good thing for the Giants. Young and the youthful Panthers in their first year under Frank Reich looked terrible in a 27-0 loss to the Jets this past Saturday.

I don't expect the Panthers, traveling on a short week with a makeshift offensive line, to fare much better this week.

Not only are the Giants home, but have had an extra day having played last Friday. They are off a 21-16 road loss to the Lions. New York led 13-3 at halftime. The Lions pulled the game out by scoring a TD with less than two minutes left. The Giants had built a 13-3 halftime lead. However, that lead was cut to 13-11 when the Giants surrendered a 95-yard punt return TD.

Young played three series for the Panthers last week. Carolina produced a meager 16 yards during that time. Second-year Carolina QB Matt Corral, who missed his rookie season after suffering a Lisfranc injury last August, is equally inexperienced. He, too, didn't play well against the Jets getting sacked four times and throwing an interception.

Carolina's QB game plan is expected to be the same - play Young for a few series and then go with Corral for the rest of the game. They are behind a very much work in progress Carolina offensive line.

I not only like the Giants' defense - which allowed only one TD drive to the Lions last week - better than Carolina's offense, but also New York's QB rotation of veteran Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito. The Giants have a lot of competition and unsettled spots at wide receiver, so they should be on the attack.

The Panthers' reserve defenders gave up 14 points to the Jets' third-string offense in the fourth quarter.

Being able to stop the run and run the ball effectively with a mobile quarterback is a strong combination when taking double-digits on the road against an overrated opponent.

That's how I see things in backing the Ottawa Redblacks against Toronto.

The Redblacks are No. 1 in the CFL both in rushing and run defense. Ottawa's QB Denny Crum has given the team a huge lift with his exciting play since taking over from injured Jeremiah Masoli. Crum averages 8.5 yards per carry, highest in the CFL. Crum should present a strong dual threat as Toronto ranks eighth out of nine teams in the league in pass defense.

Only once have the Redblacks lost by double-digits. They are capable of springing a major upset like they did against Winnipeg, also as a double-digit 'dog. The Redblacks defeated Calgary three weeks ago, too.

Calgary upset Toronto last week. That loss looks worse now for the Argonauts after BC thrashed Calgary, 37-9, last night.

That was the Argos' first loss of the season. They are 6-1 and have played only two above .500 opponents. The Argos rank sixth in total yards and yards allowed. That's below average.

Toronto will have Chad Kelly at quarterback. Kelly suffered an ankle injury last week, but has been cleared to play. However, Kelly - like Crum - relies on mobility and that mobility could be compromised by his ankle injury. Toronto also is banged-up on defense.

Discount road losses to the Aces and Liberty, the league's two powerhouses, and Atlanta is 10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games. 
The Dream are a couple of tiers ahead of Seattle and should cover against the Storm. 

Seattle is 2-13 at home this season. The Storm have lost their past six home contests. They also are without injured Gabby Williams. This is a huge loss. She could be the Storm's second or third-best all-around player. I don't believe this line has fully accounted for her absence here. 
9
The Storm just played two days ago. They are close to being a one-person scoring show with Jewell Loyd, the WNBA's top scorer. Loyd averages 11 more points than the second-highest scoring Seattle player. Loyd had an off-shooting night and the Storm lost at home to the Sun by 12 points this past Tuesday.

Atlanta has been idle since dispatching Indiana by nine points at home this past Sunday. The Dream defeated the Storm, 85-75, in Atlanta when the teams last met on July 12 for the first time this season. Loyd didn't play in that game, but Williams did. 

Indiana had the worst record in the WNBA last season and the Fever have the worst record in the league this season.

The Fever are 2-14 in their last 16 games. They have failed to cover in their past five games.

The Sparks are a disappointing 10-18. But they've been hit hard by injuries. So at least they have an excuse. Now, though, the Sparks are getting healthy. They just beat the Mystics, 91-83, on the road this past Sunday. That was the Sparks' fifth straight cover.

LA is the better team. It's not too much to ask the Sparks to merely win this game.

The lay price is high here for the Braves even on the run line. It should be. Because the Braves hold all the edges - and these are big edges. 
Let's start with the obvious. Atlanta has the best record in baseball at 70-39. Pittsburgh is 11 games below .500. 

The Braves are the road team. So they'll be assured of getting nine innings of at bats. 

The pitching matchup pits an ''A'' pitcher against a ''D'' type pitcher with Spencer Strider facing Osvaldo Bido.

Strider is 12-3 with a 3.61 ERA. He leads the majors in strikeouts. If he wins this game, he'll be tied for the most victories in the majors. Strider has been at his best, too, on the road where he's 7-1 with a 2.93 ERA. 

Bido is 2-2 with a 5.18 ERA. Bido is not in good form with a 7.27 ERA in his last three starts. He pitches worse at home where he's 0-2 with an 8.40 ERA. 
The Braves rank either first or second in runs, batting average, homers and OPS. The Pirates rank among the bottom-seven in those major offensive categories. 

Atlanta won't lack motivation having lost two straight games. If you discount a one-run game against the Angels, the Braves are averaging eight runs per game during their last eight games. 

Each of the Braves' last 11 victories have been by more than one run. 

Atlanta hasn't been this large of an underdog all season. The Aces are having a record-breaking season, but this is too many points for them to lay.

The Dream have picked up their game winning nine of their last 12. Like the Aces, they have star power with three All-Stars.

Atlanta won't lack motivation. Las Vegas, on the other hand, is off a highly-satisfying 13-point home revenge win against Dallas this past Sunday. The Aces' next game is a marquee matchup on the road against New York, the other superpower in the WNBA. So this is a sandwich spot for the Aces, who once again will be without injured starter Candace Parker.

The teams last met a month ago in Atlanta. The Dream covered for the fourth time in the last five meetings between the two teams. Las Vegas only was able to win, 92-87.

It took to the end of July. But the Padres, with their $250 million payroll, finally showed something sweeping the Rangers three games at home.

That puts San Diego five games out of a wildcard spot. It probably means the Padres won't be sellers before Tuesday's trade deadline.

It also means the Padres will be taking this game very seriously since it's the day before the trade deadline.

There's no reason the Padres shouldn't be riding their new-found momentum with a multiple-run road victory here, especially being assured of getting nine innings of at bats. The Rockies have the worst record in the National League. Colorado also just dealt two of its four best power hitters, C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk, for prospects.

The Padres should score a boatload of runs going from Petco Park to Coors Field and drawing Austin Gomber, who has a 7.19 home ERA. Gomber has pitched 10 innings against the Padres this year and given up 10 runs.

Underrated Seth Lugo draws the start for San Diego. Lugo is in good form giving up two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts. Lugo faced the Rockies once this season and held them to one run in seven innings.

There are three elite teams in the CFL - Toronto, BC and Winnipeg. The other six CFL teams are all below .500. Calgary is 2-4. Montreal is 2-3.

The Stampeders have a higher ceiling than Montreal. Their won-lost record is a bit misleading with two of their losses coming to BC and Winnipeg. The other two defeats occurred in overtime by a combined five points.

Montreal has lost three in a row. Those defeats were to Toronto, Winnipeg and BC by an average of 12.6 points.

This really is a must-win spot for the Stampeders since their next four games are against Toronto, BC, Winnipeg and Toronto again. Calgary can't take a loss here to the Alouettes with that murderous schedule ahead of them.

The Stampeders rank fifth in both offense and defense yardage. They are the fourth-highest scoring team. QB Jake Maier is off his finest game throwing for 450 yards and four TD's in a 43-41 overtime loss to Ottawa last week.

I like the Stampeders to win the battle of the trenches in this one. The Alouettes have allowed a league-worst 26 sacks in just five games.

Calgary has covered 75 percent of its last 21 road games going 15-5-1 ATS.

Seems strange to say, but the Redblacks might have found their best quarterback in Dustin Crum following season-ending injuries to starter Jeremiah Masoli and Tyrie Adams.

You may recall Crum from his Mid-American Conference days with Kent State. He was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year in 2021. Crum rallied Ottawa from a 25-6 deficit to a 31-28 upset overtime victory against Winnipeg last week. Crum accounted for 261 yards passing and another 103 yards rushing. This was against a Blue Bombers defense that gives up the second-fewest yards per game in the CFL.

Ottawa is now 2-3, same as Calgary. The Stampeders needed to pull out a 33-31 win against Saskatchewan last week to reach that mark. The Stampeders have not shown to be very good this season.

Calgary is giving up an average of 28 points its last three games. The Stampeders haven't faced many mobile QB's such as Crum either.

Ottawa ranks No. 2 in the CFL in fewest points allowed per game. The Redblacks defense should hold up against Calgary QB Jake Maier, who ranks in the bottom half among the passing yardage leaders in what has been a down year for CFL quarterbacks.

The Redblacks not only hold quarterback and defensive edges, but also get the checkmark on special teams. Calgary has given up a league-worst seven big return plays on special teams. The Stampeders have fared poorly spread-wise at home, too, covering only 25 percent of their last 28 home games going 7-21 ATS.

There are three powerful teams in the Canadian Football League this season - BC, Winnipeg and Toronto. 

Saskatchewan is at least two tiers below the Lions and could sink even more with its starting quarterback, Trevor Harris, out with injury. 

The Roughriders are 3-2. But two of those victories were against 0-6 Edmonton and the Roughriders only beat the Elks by a combined five points.

BC ranks No. 2 in points per game and yards per game. But the Lions really shine on defense, which is bad news for untested Saskatchewan backup QB Mason Fine. 

The Lions have the best defense in the CFL ranking No. 1 in fewest points and yards allowed. They also are No. 1 in pass defense and have the second-most sacks. 

BC also has a scheduling break coming off a bye. The Lions have film on Fine since he played after Harris suffered a serious knee injury in last Saturday's loss to Calgary. 

The Roughriders are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games and 0-5 ATS in their past five games versus above .500 opponents. BC has covered its last five home games.

The Dream are playing their best ball, riding a six-game win streak. They are home and will have three of the four best players on the court in All-Stars Rhyne Howard, Cheyenne Parker and Allisha Gray. Those three are averaging a combined 51 points per game. 

Minnesota can't stop strong offenses. The Lynx's last two games were against the Wings and Aces. They lost those games by an average of 32 points giving up an average of 110 points in those defeats. 

Atlanta ranks No. 3 offensively averaging 86.6 points. The Dream are averaging 91.8 points in their last six games. 

The Lynx have multiple injuries. They will be without their leading rebounder, Jessica Shepard, along with missing guards Aerial Powers and Rachel Banham. 

Saskatchewan is 3-1 this season while Calgary is 1-3. But don't be deceived by those records.

The Roughriders own two victories against 0-5 Edmonton by a combined five points. Their other win was a 29-26 upset overtime win against Calgary three weeks ago.

Look for the Stampeders to get their revenge in this rematch. The Stampeders' other two losses were to powerful BC and Winnipeg, whose combined record is 8-2.

Saskatchewan is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games and has failed to cover its last four home games.

"We know we have to be better,'' Roughriders coach Craig Dickenson admitted.

Calgary is in near must-win mode. This is the Stampeders' fifth game. Their offensive line and QB, Jake Maier, should start showing improvement by this stage. Calgary is more talented than Saskatchewan. The Roughriders are dealing with a heavy injury list, too.

The Roughriders had a dozen players held out of practice among them kicker Brett Lauther, defensive back Rolan Milligan and defensive lineman Anthony Lanier II.

The Stampeders are 11-2-1 ATS the last 14 times following a loss. They have covered in six of their last eight visits to Saskatchewan.

This price is too short. Unbeaten Toronto has outscored its three opponents by an average of 17 points in going 3-0 SU and ATS.

Montreal opened with victories against Ottawa and Hamilton - whose combined record is 2-6 - but got crushed the past two weeks when stepping up in class losing to BC by 16 points and to Winnipeg by 14.

Toronto is another step-up game for Montreal. I don't see the Alouettes hanging within single digits.

The Argonauts should dominate the line of scrimmage. They are averaging nearly four sacks a game and have a ballhawking secondary. Montreal hasn't been able to protect QB Cody Fajardo giving up more than five sacks per game.

Toronto has the top rushing attack in the CFL with AJ Ouellette and Andrew Harris along with an athletic QB in Chad Kelly.

Montreal is the home team, but this spot is very much against the Alouettes. Toronto is off a bye. The Alouettes had to play in Vancouver this past Sunday and then make the nearly 3,000-mile trip back to Montreal. All of this on a short week with this being a Friday game.

Seattle is the coldest team in the WNBA having lost eight of its last nine, including six in a row. The Storm, though, gave it an excellent comeback effort in their last game coming from 25 points down in the third quarter to lose to the Mystics in Washington, 93-86.

Unfortunately for the Storm that road game was last night. So the Storm will be playing without rest and are in action for the fourth time in seven days. That's a brutal stretch for any basketball team, especially an WNBA one, whose players have to fly commercial instead of charter.

The Storm now visit a rested Atlanta team that has been idle since Sunday. The Dream are playing their best ball winning five in a row, the last four by double-digits.

Led by Rhye Howard, Allisha Gray and Cheyene Parker - all All-Stars - the Dream is the No. 3 scoring team in the league. Seattle is the worst defensive team in the league.

The Storm heavily rely on Jewell Lloyd to do their scoring. Lloyd, though, logged more than 35 minutes last night. She is playing on a tender ankle, too.

Atlanta is the far superior team right now and the situation is another huge minus for the Storm.

Coming off a bye, 1-2 Calgary has a chance to get back into contention in the tough West Division. Teams off a bye are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS this season in the CFL.

Winnipeg is 3-1. But its offense and defense have yet to both play well in a game. The Blue Bombers gave up an average of 29.3 points during their first three games. They held Montreal to three points in a 17-3 win last week. The Alouettes average just 20 points. They rank fourth-from-the-bottom in points and yards gained per game. Montreal picked up 363 yards despite scoring only three points. There was bad weather in that game, too.

So I'm looking for the Stampeders to put up their share of points against a Blue Bombers defense that ranks below average in opponent yards per play. Calgary QB Jake Maier has played much better after struggling opening week against BC's top-ranked defense. The Stampeders have scored 26 points in each of their past two games while averaging 418 yards during this span. Maier averaged 310 yards passing in the last two games while throwing four touchdowns.

Calgary suffered wide receiver injuries, but gets back Reggie Begelton this week from a rib injury that kept him out of the Stampeders' last game.

The Blue Bombers have scored just 23 points in their last two games.

There are some strong trends that favor Calgary: The Stampeders are 11-1-1 ATS after not covering in their previous game, which they failed to do with an overtime loss to Saskatchewan, and they are 12-3-1 ATS during their last 16 road games.

These teams are close to even. But Calgary's home field isn't worth this many points. Saskatchewan has a quarterback edge, too, with Trevor Harris against Jake Maier. The Stampeders also have a pair of key skill position injuries.

So I find good value taking Saskatchewan at more than a field goal.

Calgary showed a good run defense against Ottawa last week. However, the Roughriders can hurt the Stampeders through the air. Harris has four quality receivers. He passed for 413 yards and three TD's in a 45-27 shootout loss to Winnipeg last week. Saskatchewan opened its season with a 17-13 upset road victory against Edmonton.

The Stampeders have just one TD pass in their two games. Maier will be without star running back Ka'Deem Carey again and wide receiver Reggie Begelton is out, too. Begelton is Calgary's leading in receptions and receiving yards.

Calgary has failed to cover during 20 of its past 27 home games.

Winnipeg and Saskatchewan each opened the season with victories. But that's where the similarities end.

The Blue Bombers are much better than the Roughriders. So I have no qualms laying a touchdown with them on the road. The Blue Bombers came within two points of winning the Grey Cup last season going 16-4 on the season, including playoffs.

Winnipeg has most of its core players back, including QB Zach Collaros, RB Brady Oliveria and WR Dalton Schoen. The Blue Bombers have defeated Saskatchewan seven straight times, including going 3-0 last season. They rolled past the Roughriders by a combined 52 points during the past two meetings.

Collaros was in good form in Winnipeg's, 42-31, opening week victory against Hamilton throwing for 354 yards and three TD's. The Blue Bombers compiled 499 yards of offense. Hamilton's 31 points were misleading. Defense and special teams played a big role in accumulating that total. The Blue Bombers held Ticats' QB Bo Levi Mitchell to 200 yards passing, picking him off twice.

Saskatchewan was 6-12 last year, 3-6 at home. The Roughriders nipped Edmonton, 17-13, on the road in Week 1. The Roughriders forced three turnovers, but gave up 202 passing yards. The Roughriders also suffered some key injuries. Wide receiver Derel Walker, who scored their lone TD last week, is out with a knee injury and QB Trevor Harris suffered a bruised hip late in the game.

Harris is likely to play, but he may not be 100 percent. I don't see him and Saskatchewan's offense keeping up with Winning's attack. I expect the Blue Bombers to be sharper in Week 2 after committing four turnovers against Hamilton yet still winning by 11 points.

The Golden Knights have mostly dominated this series. So their being up 3-1 is not a surprise.

Las Vegas has outscored Florida, 17-9, made far fewer mistakes, has a decided edge in expected goals, is the much deeper and healthier team with Matthew Tkachuk battling a shoulder injury that has greatly reduced his minutes.

The Panthers haven't been able to penetrate the middle of Las Vegas' tall and physical defense. Adin Hill has stepped up in net outplaying Sergei Bobrovsky throughout much of the series. Florida ranked 10th in power play goal percentage during the regular season. But against Las Vegas, the Panthers have failed to score in 13 power play opportunities.

The Golden Knights held on to nip the Panthers, 3-2, this past Saturday in Florida in Game 4. Now the Panthers have to regroup and do it with a hobbled Tkachuk, who has been their best player.

I don't see it happening, especially not at Las Vegas where the Panthers have lost the past seven times. I don't even see it being a close game. So I'm laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line turning huge minus juice into huge plus juice.

It's no fluke the Nuggets are on the verge of clinching the NBA championship with a 3-1 series lead. But the Heat have earned the right to be backed taking this many points.

Miami has pulled off three double-digit fourth-quarter comeback wins in the postseason. They won Game 2 in Denver down by seven points in the final period. They are a well-coached, tough team both physically and mentally.

So I will accept this many points knowing that if key role players Gabe Vincent and Max Strus combine for two points while shooting a combined 1-for-10 from the floor and 0-for-7 from 3-point range, the Heat are likely to lose by double-digits. That was the case in Game 4 with Denver winning, 108-95.

The Nuggets were sharp in their 108-95 road win in Game 4 this past Friday. They shot 49 percent from the floor and hit 14 of 28 3-point shots for 50 percent. That's going to be difficult to repeat. So is Aaron Gordon scoring 27 points while making 11 of 15 shots from the field and hitting three of four 3-pointers after he made just five 3-pointers during his previous eight games.

The Heat, by contrast, made 8-of-25 3-pointers for 32 percent in Game 4. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are playing great. Bam Adebayo, though, is producing strong numbers for Miami and Jimmy Butler is off his best all-around game in this series with 25 points, seven rebounds and seven assists.

It boils down to faith. I have it in Butler, Miami coach Erik Spoelstra and Vincent to keep things close with their season on the brink.

The Diamondbacks have four in a row - all by at least four runs - in going a season-best 14 games above .500. The Tigers have lost eight in a row, averaging a measly 2.1 runs per game during this losing skid.

The pitching matchup is Zac Gallen versus lefty Joey Wentz. Gallen is at least a "B'' tier pitcher. He's 7-2 with a 2.75 ERA. That ERA shrinks to 2.35 during day games. Wentz is one of the worst starters in baseball with a 1-6 record, 7.49 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. What he's still doing in the Tigers' starting rotation remains a mystery to me.

The Diamondbacks rank in the top-10 in batting average and slugging percentage against southpaw pitching.

So I'm going to lower the heavy juice by backing the Diamondbacks on the run line in the belief they win this game by more than one run.

Update: The Tigers are going to open with 28-year-old Will Vest as an opener. He hasn't recorded more than six outs in any of his 20 appearances. Vest is likely to go just one or two innings followed by Wentz. So my handicap and play has not changed. However, you may have to re-bet the game if you listed pitchers.

Let's be realistic about the Heat. They don't have the height, nor the offense, to match up to Nuggets' superstars Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray.

If Miami gets demoralized and its role players aren't hitting their perimeter shots, the Heat are dead in the water. That's what happened in Game 3 this past Wednesday when the Nuggets won, 109-94, on the road. The Nuggets outrebounded the Heat, 58-33, and outscored them by 26 points in the paint.

So it's easy to see why the Heat are a home 'dog for this Game 4.

Discount Miami at your own peril, however. The Heat have been resilient all through the postseason. Just when you want to count them out they re-emerge. I see the Heat doing that again in this spot. I certainly don't expect the Heat to make 49 percent of their 3-point shots like they did in their Game 2 upset. But Bam Adebayo, Gabe Vincent, Kevin Love and Max Strus should all combine to shoot much better than the 12-for-43 (28 percent) they hit from the floor in Wednesday's loss.

Jokic and Murray played their ''A'' games in Game 3. Not so with Miami's stars. Jimmy Butler couldn't even reach five assists. He and Adebayo were a combined 18-for-45 (40 percent) from the field. They are due to shoot better while Jokic and especially Murray can't play much better than they did on Wednesday.

Eric Spoelstra has bolstered his already strong reputation during this postseason. He just could be the best coach in the NBA. So the Heat have that going. I expect they'll have super defensive intensity, which they lacked in Game 3 especially when they started falling way behind.

The Heat have covered seven of the last nine times following a loss. I'm banking on a strong bounce effort from Miami.

The Heat are the first play-in team to ever make the NBA Championship Series. But they need more time to rest and recuperate after upsetting the Celtics on the road this past Monday in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

Even if they had ample time to prepare, though, I don't see the Heat staying within double-digits of the home Nuggets in Thursday's Game 1.

The Nuggets have been idle since May 22. They've won six in a row and are 42-7 at home this season, including 8-0 in the playoffs.

If the Heat thought Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were a load, wait until they encounter Nikola Jokic and James Murray. Jokic is the best player in the NBA and Murray had a series for the ages in Denver's four-game sweep of the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. Murray led all scorers in that series averaging 32.5 points while shooting 52.7 percent from the floor, hitting 40.5 percent of his 37 3-point attempts and sinking 19-of-20 free throws.

The Nuggets outrebounded the Lakers and they surely will out-rebound the undersized Heat.

Chicago has proven to be underrated this season. The Sky are the only unbeaten spread team left in the WNBA at 4-0 ATS. They are road 'dogs to Atlanta. I don't believe the Dream should be favored.

The Dream just lost at home straight-up to Indiana, the worst team in the WNBA, as a seven-point favorite. The Fever had lost 20 straight games dating back to last season.

Chicago is the No. 3 defensive team in the league giving up 73.5 points. Atlanta ranks eighth defensively surrendering 84 points.

Chicago has injuries to rotation players Morgan Bertsch and Rebekah Gardner. However, the Sky have a deep roster and are well coached by James Wade.

Spencer Strider ws outstanding as a rookie last season and he's tough again this season with a 4-2 record and 2.97 ERA. Oh, yes, Strider also leads the majors in strikeouts with 97.

Strider has dominated the Phillies with a 4-0 lifetime mark with a 1.27 ERA and 34 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings.

The Phillies have dropped 13 of their last 19 games to the Braves in Atlanta.

Philadelphia has been held to three runs or fewer in eight of their last 13 games.

I don't see Dylan Covey, making his first start with the Phillies, and a below average Phillies bullpen being able to keep this game close.

Judging by the first three games of this series, Denver clearly is the superior team. The Nuggets have a huge height advantage, they are the more physically imposing team, are getting better play from their bench than LA is and have the look of a champion while the Lakers are worn down - physically and mentally.

The Nuggets proved they could win on the road, beating the Lakers, 119-108, in LA. this past Saturday night. Denver was in control all the way. So I see the wrong team being favored.

The Lakers did a remarkable job to even reach this point. There were 12 teams ahead of them in late February. LA became the first team to advance to the conference finals after being eight games under .500.

But 13 playoff games against the Grizzlies and Warriors and now three games against the Nuggets with just one day spaced out have taken a huge toll. It's caught up to 38-year-old LeBron James, fragile Anthony Davis and the rest of the Lakers.

The Lakers don't have the height to contest the Nuggets. Nikola Jokic is averaging 27 points, 14.7 rebounds and 11.3 assists in the series. LA can't stop him. Jamal Murray is averaging 35 points, 7.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists. They have been the two best players in the series. The Lakers have no answers for either one.

Denver's support cast has outplayed the Lakers, too. Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown have hurt the Lakers not just with their scoring, but with their defense.

The Lakers are averaging 105.5 points in the last two games. That's 12 points down from their season average.

Getting points with Denver is just an added bonus.

Maybe if Brad Stevens would immediately fire Joe Mazzulla and install himself as coach again the Celtics might have a chance to beat the Heat. But since that isn't going to happen, the Heat are likely to keep winning especially now that they are the home team.

There are five things we've learned from the first two games of this Eastern Conference Finals, which the Heat lead, 2-0:

Jimmy Butler is the best all-around player on the court. Grant Williams is an idiot. Jaylen Brown is not a star. Bam Adebayo is the best big man on the court. Mazzulla is hugely overmatched by Erik Spoelstra on the sidelines.

The Heat won the first two games of this series on the road by an average of 6 1/2 points. The Celtics aren't playing championship caliber defense giving up an average of 117 points to Miami.

Maybe the Celtics turn on their defensive switch. I don't see it. I have absolutely zero faith in rookie coach Mazzulla. Miami has the momentum and is the more confident team. The Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. They have won all five of their playoff home games.

Getting points with the Heat is just a bonus.

The Nuggets and their coach, Michael Malone, believe they are being disrespected by the national media who tend to play up the high-profile Lakers.

Yes, perhaps Nikola Jokic should have won a third straight MVP award.

But the Nuggets can't be considered a great team if they can't win on the road. Denver has yet to prove that. The Nuggets finished the regular season an embarrassing 19-22 away from home and are 2-3 SU and ATS in their five playoff road games.

The Lakers are 6-0 SU and ATS at home during the postseason. They've covered five of the past six times they've hosted Denver.

The Nuggets lead the series 2-0 by virtue of winning both of their home games. However, the Nuggets didn't cover either game winning by six and five points, respectively. Denver had to hang on to win these games despite Jokic playing at the highest level and Jamal Murray averaging 34 points.

The teams have each won four of the eight quarters played. The Lakers have been to the free throw line 12 more times than the Nuggets. And this was in Denver. Now the scene shifts to LA where the Lakers are in must-win mode and the Nuggets have played much worse away from Denver.

The Lakers aren't just a two man team of LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura have stepped up, combining to average 41.5 points per game.

The oddsmaker seems to be anticipating Celtics money making Boston this big of a favorite. The Zig/Zag is in full force here with the Celtics down 0-1 in the series and playing at home. 

But I'm not buying into it. There's too much value on the Heat - just like in Wednesday's series opener - to turn down this inflated point spread.
The Celtics outscored Miami in three of the four quarters in Game 1. Yet the Heat still won, 123-116. 

The Heat are playing with tremendous confidence. They are not the No. 8 seed that had to beat the Bulls in a play-in game to even reach the playoffs. It's wrong to think of them in that context. Certainly the Bucks and Knicks don't think that way now. 

Miami is an extremely well-coached, a strong defensive team - No. 2 in the league in fewest points allowed - that is being willed to win by Jimmy Butler. He's the best all-around player on the court. The Heat also have the best big man, Bam Adebayo. 

These teams know each extremely well, which should portend a much closer game than the oddsmaker projects. Only twice in their last 20 games have the Heat lost by more than nine points. I certainly want Erik Spoelstra going for me rather than rookie coach Joe Mazzulla. 

Miami has covered eight of the last 10 times when playing on one day's rest. The Heat also are 6-1 in their last seven games following a cover and are 14-5 ATS the last 19 times playing the Celtics in Boston.

The Lakers shot 55 percent from the floor in Game 1 of this Western Conference Finals series against the Nuggets on Tuesday. They hit 46 percent of their 3-point shots and were 23 of 26 from the foul line. LeBron James and Anthony Davis played at their superstar best combining to go 23-for-39 from the field for 59 percent.

Yet the Lakers still lost by six points, 132-126.

The Lakers couldn't overcome Nikola Jokic - the best player on the planet - a huge size disadvantage and Denver's strong home-court edge.

The Nuggets are 7-0 in their home playoff games. The 132 points is the most points they've scored in their dozen playoff games this spring.

The Game 2 point spread, however, opened lower than it was in Game 1.

So I'm going Nuggets not forgetting Denver is a No. 1 seed. LA is a seventh-seed.

Lakers coach Darvin Ham prefers to go with a small, three-guard oriented lineup. That's not going to work against the Nuggets, who have a frontline of 6-foot-11 Jokic, 6-10 Michael Porter Jr. and 6-8 Aaron Gordon. The Nuggets slaughtered the Lakers on the boards, 47-30.

Ham isn't a moron. He knows he can't go small against the Nuggets. But to do that, he and the Lakers have to adjust on the road. LA also is trailing in a playoff series for the first time having opened with road wins against the Grizzlies and Warriors. All of this could put the Lakers out of their comfort zone.

Jokic was unstoppable with 34 points, 21 rebounds and 14 assists. The Lakers have no antidote for him. Meanwhile James and Davis could be pressed to repeat their top-notch Game 1 performances particularly Davis, who was 14-of-23 from the field and made all 11 of his free throws scoring 40 points.

Denver is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games - and that includes not covering against the Lakers in Game 1. LA is 1-4 ATS in its last five away games. The Lakers also are 4-10-1 ATS during their past 15 games in Denver.

Prop Bet

Rui Hachimura OVER 11 1/2 points

Here's the thing about Rui Hachimura. When he plays, he's an underrated scorer. Lakers coach Darvin Ham figured out in Game 1 that he couldn't play his usual small lineup of three guards against the much taller Nuggets.

It took Ham a half to realize that. Hachimura, a 6-foot-8 rotation forward, played the entire fourth quarter. That's a strong sign Hachimura is going to draw big minutes in this Game 2. He responded by scoring 17 points in Game 1. So I look for him to score at least a dozen points in this game. 

Sure the Knicks could upset the Heat in Miami. But it would take a repeat of their Game 5 performance this past Wednesday when their Big Three of Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle and RJ Barrett combined to score 88 points on 27 of 52 shooting from the floor for 52 percent, while sinking 11 3-pointers.

And, realistically, I don't see the Knicks duplicating that feat. Not in Miami where the Heat have dominated in the postseason. Miami is 4-0 SU and ATS at Kaseya Center in the playoffs. This includes two victories against the Bucks by a combined 27 points and two wins against the Knicks by a combined 27 points never trailing except for 24 seconds.

It's not a fluke either. The Heat have established they are the superior team.

The Knicks gained some self-respect and redemption with their 112-103 Game 5 victory. But that's as far as they go. The Heat have covered seven of the last 10 times they've hosted the Knicks.

The NBA playoffs often are decided by three things - superstars, coaching and defense. The 76ers have the edge on Boston in all three of these categories. That's why they are going to end this series with a home victory today. Getting points with Philadelphia is just a bonus. 

Let's start with star power. The 76ers have a pair of superstars, Joel Embiid and James Harden. Tyrese Maxey is stepping up and Tobias Harris can be counted on. Boston has one superstar, Jayson Tatum. Jaylen Brown certainly is good, but he falls short of being a superstar. The Celtics don't have a reliable third wheel who can produce points the way Maxey and Harris can. 

Now, let's talk coaching. Doc Rivers is a proven winner. The Celtics know that better than any team. Maybe Rivers is more of a player's coach than a master strategist. But pitted against rookie coach Joe Mazzulla, Rivers is Red Auerbach, Phil Jackson and Gregg Popovich rolled into one. 
The 76ers' coaching edge isn't tiny, but huge. 

From 2004 through the end of last season, the Celtics had strong coaching with Rivers, Brad Stevens and Ime Udoka. The Celtics, however, made the decision to suspend Udoka for this season for what they labeled ''violations of team policies.'' 

Udoka's chief assistant was 34-year-old whiz kid Will Hardy. Unfortunately for Boston, Danny Ainge poached Hardy for Utah. So the Celtics named Mazzulla, a lesser assistant coach, as their interim coach even though he had no NBA head coaching experience. 

When the Celtics got off to a hot start, the team removed the interim label making Mazzulla permanent head coach. Boston may want to rethink that move. Playoff coaching is different then regular season coaching. Miami's Erik Spoelstra is a master in that difference. Milwaukee's Mike Budenholzer wasn't. Mazzulla isn't either. This is a fatal weakness. The Bucks knew it. That's why they fired Budenholzer even though he had the best regular-season winning percentage of any Bucks coach in Milwaukee history.

It's not just Mazzulla's highly noticeable deficiency in failing to take timeouts at the proper time. Mazzulla hasn't proven adept at developing the right rotation, nor in making  adjustments. Udoka, aided by Hardy, were able to mitigate the Celtics' offensive inconsistencies, by stepping up defensively. The Celtics have yet to show that ability under Mazzulla.

Boston gave up an average of 122.5 points in its last four games to the Hawks during its first-round series. I have no faith in Mazzulla that he can lead the Celtics to a road victory against the 76ers with the season on the line after losing Game 5 at home by 12 points. 

Because I don't trust the Warriors on the road.

Golden State has lost 33 of its 46 road games this season. If you go back to the end of last season, the Warriors are 17-37-1 ATS (31 percent) ATS in their last 55 away contests. They also have failed to cover during their last four road games against the Lakers.

LA destroyed the Warriors, 127-97, at home in Saturday's Game 3. That pushed LA's postseason home record to 5-0. All of the victories have been by six or more points.

The Lakers have peaked at the right time going 16-5 since March 17. I trust their defense more than the Warriors when Golden State is on the road. LeBron James and Anthony Davis received extra rest from Saturday's blowout victory.

The Orioles upset the Braves as better than a 2-to-1 underdog on Friday. I don't see Baltimore doing that again today in a matchup of Kyle Bradish versus Spencer Strider.

Strider is emerging as one of the best pitchers in baseball. He's 4-0 with a 2.57 ERA. Strider is tied for the National League in strikeouts, too.

Bradish is 1-1 with a 6.13 ERA and 1.84 HIP. He's been bashed for 10 earned runs in his last two starts versus the Red Sox and Tigers in seven innings.

The Braves have won by more than one run during nine of their past 10 victories.

Discount their two play-in games and this will be the first time in eight playoff games the Heat are favored. Justified? Yes. They are home and I fully expect Jimmy Butler to play having had five days to deal with his sprained ankle.

But this doesn't mean Miami is the right side.

The Knicks are 38-16-1(70 percent) in their last 55 road games. Julius Randle showed he was past his ankle injury by scoring 25 points, pulling down 12 rebounds and dishing off eight assists in the Knicks' 111-105 Game 2 win this past Tuesday. Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett and Mitchell Robinson are playing at high levels, too, for the Knicks. Josh Hart has been a key role player for New York also.

Butler was superman in leading Miami to a stunning upset of Milwaukee in the Heat's first round matchup. Butler, however, may not be as effective because of his sore ankle. Remember, too, the Heat are without their third-leading scorer and most accurate 3-point shooter with Tyler Herro out.

The Heat fluctuated from being 6-to-10 point road underdogs to the Knicks in Game 2. Now they're currently four-point favorites. So I see plenty of line value to the Knicks. Miami is 11-28-1 ATS (29 percent) in their last 40 games following a point spread cover.