Memphis has proven it can hang with Golden State taking the defending champions to six games in the playoffs last season, including winning Game 2 at Oracle Arena, 97-90. 

The Grizzlies have their same cast of rough customers that helped them to finish in the top five in defensive scoring each of the last four years. This figures to be a fierce, intense battle with the Grizzlies out for revenge. Memphis has covered in seven of its last 10 visits to Golden State. 

The Warriors haven't seen a defense this good yet. Golden State has looked good in going 3-0. But two of the victories came against 0-3 New Orleans, which ranks last in defense, has injuries and point guard Jrue Holiday playing limited minutes. The Warriors' other victory occurred against the struggling 0-3 Rockets, who rank 25th defensively and 28th in defensive shooting percentage. 

Steve Kerr has yet to return to the bench and big man Andrew Bogut is questionable. 

Both teams are 6-0 and off byes. The Packers' 6-0 is real. The Broncos' 6-0 is bogus. 
Denver has had to battle in every one of its games. The Broncos ranked eighth in point differential despite not having lost.
The Broncos' offense has produced only nine touchdowns. The problems are a below average offensive line, mediocre running backs and a washed-up Peyton Manning. 
Manning should have retired after last season. He ranks 31st in the passer ratings with a 72.5 ranking. He's tied for the most interceptions thrown with 10. He's as smart and savvy as ever, but he can no longer drive the ball and his accuracy is down. To be brutally honest, he's one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league now. Sad, but true. 
The Packers have a monster quarterback edge with Aaron Rodgers. Eddie Lacy and Davonte Adams should be at full strength, too. 
Denver's home field and outstanding defense are definite pluses. However, they can't outweigh Green Bay's considerable offensive edge. Today's game is about offense not defense. The rules ensure that. Manning can't keep up with Rodgers. 

Edmonton is trying to clinch the Western Division. But the Eskimos are going to have problems doing that against Montreal.
The Alouettes are a desperate team trying to keep their prideful streak of making the playoffs a 20th consecutive year. They are in must-win mode.
Montreal looked good last week defeating Toronto, 34-2. That was the Argonauts' worst home loss since 2004. 
The Alouettes are giving up 16.3 points per game during their last three games. Now they're getting a boost on offense from quarterback Kevin Glenn, who will be playing in his third game for Montreal. 
Edmonton hasn't been impressive during the past month going 2-3 ATS. The Eskimos did defeat Saskatchewan by 11 laying nine points last week.
But In their previous four games, the Eskimos won by six laying 11 to British Columbia, won by a point giving six to Winnipeg, won by four against Calgary and won by three in overtime against British Columbia laying nine. 
Edmonton edged Montreal by three points in its earlier meeting this season. 

The Pelicans have revenge for last season's playoffs when the Warriors swept them four games. New Orleans did cover three of those matchups, though.
Now the Pelicans have added revenge after losing this past Tuesday on opening night to Golden State, 111-95. 
So why should things be different just five days later?
The spot, setting, Golden State injuries and Anthony Davis that's why.  
First, the spot. The Warriors just finished a bigger game knocking off Houston on the road last night. New Orleans followed up its loss to the Warriors by playing this Wednesday and had no energy - physically and mentally - in a 112-94 road loss to Portland. 
Second, the setting. This is the Pelicans' home opener. They are desperate to avoid starting 0-3 for the first time since 2004-05. New Orleans finished last season covering six of its last seven at home. New Orleans is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games versus opponents with winning road records. 
Third, Golden State injuries. Andrew Bogut is out. That means the Warriors can't go big against Davis. Coach Steve Kerr isn't on the trip. He's home recovering from back surgery. Star shooting guard Klay Thompson is off to a slow start caused by an ailing back. He might not see action against the Pelicans after playing 24 minutes last night. 
Then there's the Davis factor. He's the best big man in the game. Davis entered this season averaging 30.9 points, 12.3 rebounds and shooting 57 percent from the field in his last seven games against the Warriors.
But he inexplicably missed 16 of 20 shots from the floor versus the Warriors in the first meeting. That's not going to happen a second time. 

Clemson is sitting at 10-0 having destroyed Miami, 58-0, in its last game and with its biggest game of the season on deck versus Florida State on Nov. 7. 
The Tigers are in an ambush spot - and North Carolina State has the right ingredients and personnel to pull off the feat.
The Wolfpack are 5-2 SU and ATS. They have covered eight of their last 10 games going back to last season. They will be tremendously motivated having lost to Clemson each of the last three seasons, including 41-0 last year on the road. That was the worst loss in Dave Doeren's three years at North Carolina State. 
Clemson has its revenge game of the year on deck versus Florida State. That's the game the Tigers are pointing to not this one. 
The Wolfpack rank second in the ACC in total defense and have a very reliable quarterback, Jacoby Brissett. He has a 33-to-six touchdown-to-interception ratio during the past two seasons. 
Clemson has an explosive offense with Deshaun Watson. But the Wolfpack can play keep away. They rank second in the country in time of possession. 
Note, too, that North Carolina State is dangerous on special teams ranking first in the ACC in kick return yardage and punt return yardage. 

Let's not overreact to one game. The line is shorter than normal for this matchup because the Hawks lost their opener on Tuesday at home to the Pistons while the Knicks upset the Bucks on the road last night. 
Yes, New York is improved. And, yes, Atlanta is down a bit from last season. But the Hawks still are way better than the Knicks. The gap has narrowed, but not nearly enough where the Hawks, winners of 60 games last season, should be this short of a favorite against New York, which won 43 fewer games last season than Atlanta. 
The Knicks matched up well to Milwaukee and caught the Bucks minus three of their top eight players, including suspended Giannis Antetokoumpo. New York's depth is improved, but Carmelo Anthony is extremely rusty. He played last night for the first time since February. He's nowhere near the All-Star caliber player he's been. 
The Hawks were ambushed by the Pistons. Detroit played great while Atlanta had an off-night missing 19 of 27 shots from 3-point range. The Hawks have their entire team back from last season with the exception of DeMarre Carroll. Their core of Al Horford, Paul Millsap, Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver is intact. The Knicks can't match that. 
The Hawks added Tim Hardaway Jr., who's expected to play tonight after being inactive against the Pistons. Hardaway played for the Knicks and can provide useful insight. 

The Pelicans have been waiting all offseason for this opening matchup after Golden State ended their season by sweeping them in the playoffs. New Orleans did cover three of the four playoff games and I see the Pelicans covering here, too.
It's always a distraction for the defending champions playing in their first game of the season celebrating ring night. This is especially so for the Warriors, who won their first championship in 40 years and will be without their steady head coach Steve Kerr.
Kerr won't be coaching the Warriors probably for at least the first week as he recovers from two offseason back surgeries. That's significant because it elevates 35-year-old Luke Walton into the interim head coaching spot. Walton was the Warriors' No. 3 assistant last season. He faces a huge challenge of making the right substitutions. This is tricky to do because the Warriors have a lot of depth. Kerr was very good at putting the best lineup on the floor depending on matchup and game flow. 
Alvin Gentry was the Warriors' No. 1 assistant coach last season and he's now the Pelicans head coach. That's a huge edge for New Orleans when playing Golden State. 
Anthony Davis is the best big man in the game. Gentry believes Davis can reach even greater heights in an up-tempo offense, which is his style. The Pelicans won't have Tyreke Evans, but they do have Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon healthy. 

This is my Favorite's Play of the Month. I'm not surprised the line has gone up since I released the play as the Rams clearly are the right side.

The Browns have gone hard three straight weeks losing 30-27 to the Chargers, beating Baltimore in overtime and losing in overtime last week to the Broncos. 

Cleveland doesn't have an abundance of talent. The Browns' skill position players are among the weakest in the league. It takes a supreme effort for the Browns to hang in against most opponents. 
I believe the Browns are out of gas for this road matchup. St. Louis is coming off its bye week. The Rams hold matchup, situation and field edges that should result in more than a touchdown victory. 
The Browns are a grass team. This is their first dome game. Cleveland ranks 30th in total defense, last in run defense. The Rams have a potential superstar running back Todd Gurley. He's healthy now and has rushed for 305 yards in his last two games. 
I'm not a fan of Rams quarterback Nick Foles, but he's still better than Browns journeyman Josh McCown and he has speed at the flanks. The Browns were missing two key members of their secondary last week, cornerback Joe Haden and free safety Tashaun Gipson. Neither practiced on Wednesday. I'm releasing this play Wednesday night as I see the line going higher.
Foles should be able to pick his spots, too, off play-action since the Browns will be keying on Gurley. 
St. Louis has 19 sacks in five games. The Rams have the best pass rushing defensive front in football. McCown plays scared when under pressure. I envision multiple turnovers from him against this defense. 
The Rams are stepping down in class after facing Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Carson Palmer and Aaron Rodgers. They should dominate McCown and his lack of weapons. 
Coaching-wise this is a mismatch, too, between Jeff Fisher and Mike Pettine. 

Utah is in its fifth year in the Pac-12 and can play with the big boys. The Utes are 6-0 and it's a strong 6-0. They are the only team in the Pac-12 South without a loss. 
The Utes beat the Trojans last season, 24-21, and they are in great shape to do it again Saturday. Not only are the Utes a well-rounded power, but they catch USC in disarray. 
The Trojans have talent, like always, but they have under performed and been mismanaged. They are still cleaning up the Steve Sarkisian mess. 
Utah can match USC at the key skill position spots with quarterback Travis Wilson and running back Devontae Booker, who ranks 10th nationally in rushing averaging 130.5 yards per game. 

San Diego State is playing its finest football limiting its last three opponents to an average of 9.3 points per game. The Aztecs have held opponents to 162.7 yards per game this month, lowest in the FBS for October. 
This is a huge game for both teams. But the timing is great for the Aztecs and not just because they are peaking. They catch Utah State traveling on a short week after the Aggies crushed Boise State, 52-26. That was one of the great victories in Utah State history. It also could mean a letdown this week. 
Utah State's lopsided win against Boise State, though, was a bit misleading. The Aggies converted eight turnovers into 35 points. The yardage was even.  
The Aggies have become even more of a running team with Kent Myers replacing Chuckie Keeton at quarterback. San Diego State has become extremely stingy allowing yards on the ground holding foes to 33.3 yards per game this month, best in the nation, and just 1.2 yards per carry this month. 
The Aztecs have a very good runner, D.J. Pumphrey. He's rushed for more than 100 yards in his last three games. San Diego State does not have a dynamic offense, but it is efficient. The Aztecs have scored on 94 percent of their drives inside the red zone. 

Now that Bill O'Brien has figured out what everybody else knew that Brian Hoyer is his best quarterback, the Texans are ready to improve. They start here against one of the worst teams in the NFL - the Jaguars. 
Jacksonville has shown small improvement, but not enough to warrant being favored here especially since Arian Foster finally is fully healthy for Houston. Foster can dominate this game. So can J.J. Watt on the other side of the ball. Jacksonville can't match and has no answer for those players. 
The Jaguars are banged-up. Their best running back, T.J. Yeldon, may not play due to a groin injury and their best offensive lineman, guard Brandon Lindor, is out. The Jaguars gave up six sacks last week in a loss to Tampa Bay. Blake Bortles suffered an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder so he won't be 100 percent. 
Hoyer isn't anyone's idea of a Pro Bowl quarterback, but he's a huge upgrade on Ryan Mallet in terms of accuracy, game-managing and being a leader. Hoyer also has put up decent numbers - a 5-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 62.1 percent completions and 8.21 yards per pass attempt. 
The Jaguars have one of the weakest home fields as reflected in a 7-18-1 ATS mark. 

This is unbeaten Texas A&M's biggest game of the four-year era of Kevin Sumlin. Everything is in place for the Aggies to upset Alabama. 
The Crimson Tide are down a notch. The Aggies are a rising power. This is their chance to prove it - and they get Alabama at home, are rested after being idle last week and hold a powerful revenge incentive. 
The key question is how improved are the Aggies from the team that was humiliated 59-0 on the road by Alabama last year? 
The answer is much improved, enough to beat the Crimson Tide straight-up. 
Since that loss, the Aggies switched quarterbacks to Kyle Allen, hired respected defensive coordinator John Chavis from LSU to improve their defense - which they have - and become more balanced offensively with a power ground attack spearheaded by Tra Carson. 
The Crimson Tide have failed to cover in four of their last five games. They are vulnerable to Texas A&M's up-tempo style. Alabama's major weakness is its secondary. The only team Alabama has faced that is similar in offense to Texas A&M was Mississippi. The Rebels exploited Alabama's secondary throwing for 341 yards and three touchdowns while scoring 43 points in a six-point victory. 
Allen has multiple stud wide receivers - Christian Kirk, Josh Reynolds and Ricky Seals-Jones - to stretch the field plus reliable Carson on the ground to keep the Crimson Tide's defense honest. 

The Aggies rank 15th in the country in scoring averaging 39.2 points per game. Allen has a 13-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. I like him and the Aggies' offense much more than Alabama's offense and its quarterback Jake Coker, who has an 11-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 
Chavis is one of the most respected defensive coordinators in the country. He knows Alabama well from having been at LSU. The Tigers under Chavis held the Crimson Tide to under 22 points in all but one of their last five games. 
Chavis has two star edge pass rushers, Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall, to cause havoc for Coker. Garrett and Hall have combined for 12 1/2 sacks and 16 tackles for a loss while forcing five fumbles. 
The Crimson Tide has had to play Georgia and Arkansas the past two weeks. Texas A&M had a bye last week. The Aggies haven't left the state of Texas all season. They are rested and ready. Their time has come. 

The oddsmaker considers these teams even with this point spread factoring in the Chargers' home field advantage being worth a field goal. 
But San Diego is a touchdown better than Pittsburgh due to the Steelers dropping down at quarterback from Ben Roethlisberger to Michael Vick. Forget the past. The 35-year-old Vick is just a shell of his former self. His sloppy ballhandling and lack of work ethic really hurt him now that his once awe inspiring talent has all but diminished. 
Vick has lost 14 of the last 20 times he's started. The Steelers' defense isn't nearly strong enough to compensate for a mediocre offense with a turnover prone quarterback.
The Chargers should have three of their starting offensive linemen healthy after being out last week. Astute San Diego coach Mike McCoy knows how to get the best of Philip Rivers, who remains in his prime. 

This is a kill spot for the frustrated Chiefs, who are much better than their 1-3 record indicates. The Chiefs have already gone against three undefeated teams - Broncos, Packers and Bengals. 
The Bears are in total rebuild mode. They aren't going to win too many games this season. One of those rare victories came this past Sunday at home against Oakland. Now the Bears are traveling fat and happy to have achieved their first victory.
The Chiefs have a top 10 offense and their defense is stepping down in class. Justin Houston ranks with J.J. Watt as the best pass rusher in football. He'll be going against a Bears offensive line that will be missing its injured starting center and possibly left tackle. 
Jay Cutler is highly turnover prone when pressure is applied to him, which it will against a fierce pass rushing opponent in a very hostile environment. 
Chicago's average loss this season is by 19.6 points. I see a similar result here. The Chiefs have covered five of their last six home games when taking on a foe with a losing record. 

When last spotted Utah was hammering Oregon, 62-20. That was two weeks ago. The Utes were idle last week. They are rested, prepared and have the offense and defense to cover this number against surprising Cal. 
Utah is stronger defensively than the Golden Bears and that defense gets even better with the return from injury of pass rusher supreme Hunter Dimick, who had double-digit sacks last season. 
Quarterback Travis Wilson heads a balanced Utah attack that also features Devontae Booker, who averages 111 yards rushing, and an offensive line that has allowed only one sack all season. 
I'm still leery about Cal's defensive improvement. Let's see how it holds up in this very tough road setting against a good offense. The Golden Bears rely on their excellent quarterback, Jared Goff. He leads the Pac-12 in touchdown passes and passing yards.
But I also like Utah's defense and special teams particularly punter Tom Hackett. I don't see the Golden Bears keeping this one within single digits. 

Seattle's defense is rounding into championship form with the arrival of safety Kam Chancellor last week. 

Detroit has problems offensively. The Lions rank last in rushing, their work-in-progress offensive line has allowed Matthew Stafford to absorb way too much punishment and Calvin Johnson has lost some of his explosiveness. 
Playing in the NFL's loudest outdoor venue can only make these problems worse for Detroit. This is the 0-3 Lions' season. But their offense hasn't found balance and the offensive line hasn't come together. That's not going to happen here against this elite defense. 
Detroit also has road issues covering just one of their last eight away matchups. 
Russell Wilson doesn't lose at Century Link Field. He's won 23 of 25 starts there. The Seahawks won't have Marshawn Lynch, but they are deep at running back and the Lions still will be missing their best defensive player, linebacker DeAndre Levy. 
Much is being made of the Lions in must-win mode. Only the 1992 San Diego Chargers made the playoffs after an 0-4 start. But the Seahawks know they must win this game as their next two games are against undefeated teams - at the Bengals and hosting the Panthers. 

The Saints are desperate at 0-3. They'll receive a huge lift with Drew Brees returning to the lineup. It's a Sunday night nationally televised game at home so the Saints will be super pumped. 
The Saints' offense is better than it has shown. It can expose a vulnerable Dallas defense that has relied on its offense to hide its shortcomings by playing ball control. 
The Cowboys, though, aren't capable of sustaining long drives minus Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray. Backup quarterback Brandon Weeden has lost his last nine starts. 
Weeden needs weapons to succeed, but Dallas just has fringe, role players manning the skill position spots with Bryant out and Murray in Philadelphia. 

Atlanta is a surprising 3-0. The Falcons are fat and happy right now. 
New coach Dan Quinn has improved the Falcons. But they still are more finesse than brawn, vulnerable mentally and physically to the Texans. Houston is a power team. No team runs the ball more than the Texans.
I like Houston's edges in the trenches. The Falcons don't have a dominant blocker who can handle J.J. Watt. The Texans can control the line of scrimmage against the Falcons' defensive line, too.
The Texans are expecting to get back from injury this week star running back Arian Foster and left tackle Duane Brown, their best offensive lineman. Ryan Mallet is getting better as he settles into a starting role. This will be his third start in a row. Alfred Blue had a breakout performance this past Sunday and would be capable if Foster still isn't ready to play.
The Texans rank in the top 12 in yardage both offensively and defensively. The Falcons, on the other hand, rank in the bottom six in yards given up. 
Atlanta could be 0-3 in which case this line would be much different.
The Falcons trailed in the fourth quarter during all three of their games. They took advantage of a sleepwalking, out of sync Eagles team at home opening week, beat a bad Giants team in Week 2 and this past Sunday were able to overcome a big early deficit to defeat Dallas, which was minus Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and several key defensive players. 
The Falcons are ripe for a loss. The Texans are a bad matchup for them. 

Oregon is down this season without Marcus Mariota, but do you believe Colorado can upset the Ducks? I sure don't. 
The Buffaloes, as we know, don't win Pac-12 games having lost 12 straight league contests. They draw an angry Ducks team fresh off a humiliating 62-20 pounding by Utah last week. 
Utah is better than advertised and Oregon still is several tiers above Colorado. I'm fine with whomever the Ducks use at quarterback, Vernon Adams or Jeff Lockie. The Buffs still have to deal with running back Royce Freeman, one of the best sophomores in the country with 450 yards rushing and 23 career rushing touchdowns. 
Oregon has beaten Colorado each of the past five seasons - and none of the games have been close. The Ducks won by 34 points last season and by 41 two years ago. 
Colorado is slightly improved and Oregon is down from a year ago, but the gap still remains at double-digits plus Oregon is going to be highly motivated to get on track with a lopsided victory. 

There are reasons why Detroit is 0-2. Namely the Lions' offense isn't clicking and their defense is much worse than last season. 
Matthew Stafford is far from 100 percent. Denver has the top pass defense in the league and has the pass rushers to take advantage of Detroit's banged-up, refurbished offensive line that hasn't played well. 
On defense the Lions are greatly missing the departed Ndamukong Suh and injured linebacker DeAndre Levy. The Lions surrendered 33 points, 28 first downs and 483 yards to San Diego in Week 1. Then last week the Lions allowed the Vikings 350 yards and 20 first downs. 
Peyton Manning doesn't possess the physical skills he had in his prime. But he's still perhaps the smartest quarterback in the game and is much better in the shotgun. That's the formation Manning should find himself in against the Lions after new Broncos coach Gary Kubiak made the mistake of putting Manning under center opening week. 
Detroit's run defense is down from a year ago. I see C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman producing their best games of the season, which will set up Manning for his still deadly play-action passes. The Broncos also run better out of the shotgun averaging 3.6 yards from that formation compared to 2.7 when Manning is under center. 

Arizona has covered five of the past six times it has hosted UCLA. Now it's the Wildcats' turn to beat the Bruins straight-up.
It's a triple revenge spot for Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez in his fourth season with the Wildcats. Arizona has knocked off six ranked foes during Rodriguez's tenure and is 4-0 ATS as a home 'dog. 
The Wildcats have the offensive firepower and their defense gets a huge lift with the expected return of linebacker Scooby Wright, last year's Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year. He had missed the last two games because of a knee injury. 
The jury still is out on UCLA freshman quarterback Josh Rosen, who threw three interceptions last week. This is his first Pac-12 road start. 
Arizona quarterback Anu Solomon has been much more steady with a 10-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio compared to Rosen's 5-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Solomon has completed better than 68 percent of his throws. He can rely on Nick Wilson, one of the best running backs in the conference, and a deep crop of receivers. 
The Wildcats rank among the top seven teams in the country in points, yards and rushing. They did pad their statistics by burying Northern Arizona last week, but were able to provide some rest to the their starters in the 64-point victory. So they should be fresh for this Pac-12 opener. 
The timing is right, too, for the Wildcats as they catch UCLA without three of its defensive starters, including star linebacker Myles Jack. He suffered a season-ending knee injury in practice this week. 

This isn't just a normal game for the Packers. It's their Revenge Game of the Century. And that's saying a lot since they've been in the NFL since 1921! I've personally closely followed the Packers since 1963, being a native of Wisconsin, and have never seen a bigger revenge game.
The Packers dominated the Seahawks on the road for 55 minutes of the NFC Championship Game this past season. Mike McCarthy's conservative play-calling and being unable to recover an on-side kick cost the Packers the game in which they once held a 16-point lead.
But now things are different. The Packers finally get Seattle in Green Bay. Even without Jordy Nelson, the Packers have eight Pro Bowl-worthy players on offense. Aaron Rodgers put up insane record numbers at Lambeau Field last season: a 28-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 133.2 regular season passer rating, highest in NFL history.
Seattle's defense is down from its previous two dominant seasons. Attrition and defections have chipped away at the Seahawks' defensive line and secondary depth. Two defensive guru coaches - Gus Bradley and Dan Quinn - have left for head coaching jobs. Safety Kam Chancellor, the quarterback of the defense, is holding out.
The Rams - with maybe the worst offensive line and starting two rookie linemen - scored 34 points on the Seahawks. 
Green Bay's defense is middle of the road. Seattle has offensive line problems with a lot of shuffling. It's mediocre at best. So are the Seahawks' wide receivers. Marshawn Lynch hasn't had as many big games away from Century Link Field. 
Seattle isn't nearly intimidating and doesn't play nearly as well on the road. The Seahawks are 2-9 SU and ATS during their past 11 September road matchups. 
This is a kill spot for the Packers. They'll get it done in a big way. 

I tabbed Colorado to be much improved in Mike MacIntyre's third season and I like the Buffaloes strong in this rivalry matchup.
Colorado didn't show well opening week against Hawaii, but bounced back strong last Saturday destroying UMass. Note that this game is at a neutral site - Mile High Stadium in Denver. It's a big revenge spot for the Buffaloes, who blew a 10-point lead in last year's game.
Colorado can run the ball and have a tough rush defense. Only two Pac-12 schools have a better run defense than Colorado statistically-speaking. 
So far I haven't been impressed with the Mountain West Conference. So getting a Pac-12 school at this low price represents excellent line value. No team in the Mountain West has a worst turnover ratio than the Rams, who are minus 5.
Part of this stems from Colorado State undergoing a new offense and new regime under first year coach Mike Bobo. The Rams also are replacing their best quarterback ever, Garrett Grayson. 
I'm not as high on the Rams minus Grayson and their former coach, Jim McElwain. 

Toronto can stake its claim to being one of the best teams in baseball. Certainly, the Blue Jays have the No. 1 offense. 
The Blue Jays have won by more than one run in each of their last 13 victories. 
The Braves can stake their claim to being one of the worst teams in baseball as evidenced by 40 losses in their last 52 games. That's expansion level bad, which the Braves nearly are being in a clear rebuilding stage. 
Atlanta has lost by more than one run during its past 22 defeats. 
Sparked by the return of Edwin Encarnacion, the Blue Jays got back to winning big on Wednesday crushing the Braves, 9-1. 
Toronto should do its customary damage against righty Matt Wisler. The Blue Jays are 25-9 in their last 34 games against a righthander. 
Wisler has been a disappointment. His results haven't matched the hype as he's 5-7 with a 5.60. He hasn't won since July 26. Atlanta is 0-6 in Wisler's last six starts. Twice in his last four starts Wisler has been rocked for seven earned runs while failing to reach the third inning. 
Meanwhile Toronto starter Marco Estrada has been consistently solid. Since the start of June, Estrada has gone 11-5 with a 3.11 ERA. Foes are batting only .204 against him during this span. Estrada has held opponents to three earned runs or less in eight of his last nine starts. 

The Eagles certainly looked sharp in preseason steamrolling the Colts, Ravens and Packers. Now looking good during preseason doesn't necessarily equate to an opening week win, but in the Eagles' case it's not a fluke.

Philadelphia has achieved double-digit victories during each of Chip Kelly's first two years. Now, in Year 3 of Kelly's super high octane offense, the Eagles look the best they ever had under Kelly.

The Eagles' defensive front seven has been upgraded, the secondary is fortified with quality depth at the nickel and dime spots and Sam Bradford is the most talented quarterback Kelly has had at Philadelphia. The Eagles also have the finest running back trio of any team led by defending rushing champion DeMarco Murray. 

The Eagles are ready to state their Super Bowl case with an offense that has yet to be stopped. The Falcons don't have nearly the defense to slow down Philadelphia. 

Defensive guru Dan Quinn, formerly the Seahawks defensive coordinator, makes his head coaching debut for Atlanta. Quinn is trying to overhaul the worst defense in the league from a year ago, a defense that recorded only 22 sacks. Quinn is implementing a 4-3 scheme. Atlanta's defense, at best, is a work in progress right now. 

Quinn brings excellent credentials. However, this is way too tough of a test and way too early for the Falcons to show the necessary major defensive steps to stop the Eagles' already-in-sync powerhouse offense that is better with the highly accurate Bradford. 

The Falcons are going to need to trade points with the Eagles, matching them score for score. I don't see Atlanta being able to keep up. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones get a lot of media attention. They are outstanding. I rate Jones as the best wide receiver in the NFC. 

But the Falcons have a very suspect offensive line that also is learning a new system and Atlanta also lacks a polished ground attack. The Eagles' first three running backs - Murray, Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles - are all better than anything the Falcons have at running back. 

The Eagles not only hold edges offensively and defensively, but on special teams, too. Atlanta's home field isn't nearly enough to compensate for any of that. The spread is cheap here. Lay it. 

The Packers have Jay Cutler's number. Cutler has lost his last seven starts against Green Bay, which has dominated at Solder Field winning 18 of the last 22 times there. The Packers have intercepted Cutler 19 times in 10 games. Cutler has a strong arm and is not without talent, but he's a head case and the Packers are inside his head.
The Packers don't need Jordy Nelson to bury a Bears defense that has ranked among the franchise worst during the past two years. This is saying a lot since Chicago entered the NFL in 1921! 
Chicago has some strong defensive coaches on board now, but they can't fix and rebuild this mess in one year. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has his own system, which he is trying to incorporate. The Bears lack the talent and personnel, however, to make it work. They also are thin at nose tackle with Jeremian Ratliff suspended. 
Green Bay has covered the last five times at Soldier Field and swept the Bears last year winning by an average of 31 points. Except for Nelson, the Packers have all of their offensive starters from last year back. 
The Packers' defense is much better than it looked against the Eagles during their third preseason game. The Bears have a cluster injury wide receiver problem. If Alshon Jeffery plays - which he didn't during all of preseason - his timing with Cutler would be off. The Bears already are down Kevin White and have been without their No. 2 and No. 3 wide receivers, too, as Eddie Royal and Marquess Wilson have been hurt. 

When these two teams last met two years ago at Gillette Stadium, the Patriots buried the Steelers, 55-31. That was the most points the Steelers allowed in their 81-year history. 

Tom Brady threw for 432 yards and four touchdowns helping the Patriots pile up a staggering 610 yards. Now it's two years later. And guess what? Pittsburgh's defense is far more inexperienced and worse than what it was in 2013. Troy Polamalu and Dick LeBeau are gone, too. 

The Patriots received a huge mental lift with Brady's suspension overturned, while the Steelers experienced a huge mental jolt after not expecting Brady to see the field. 

It has been a rough off-season and preseason for Pittsburgh. The Steelers lost All-Pro center Maurkice Pouncey with a broken leg. Star running back Le'Veon Bell is suspended. So is promising wide receiver Martavis Bryant. 

The Steelers' defense has looked terrible giving massive indications they are going to struggle. 

This is the 14th opening Thursday kickoff game. The home team has won 11 of the first 13. The Steelers have only covered one of their last nine September games.

The Royals have won 68 percent of their past 79 home games. They aren't going to lack for motivation here either having lost the first two games of this series to the White Sox by an embarrassing margin of 18-2. 
Prior to Friday, the Royals had beaten the White Sox 21 of 27 times. 
The Royals are the far superior team. They are going with their ace, Johnny Cueto, against call-up Erik Johnson. Cueto has lost his last three starts. But he's always been a strong day time pitcher and has a 13-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during his last three starts. I don't see him losing a fourth consecutive start especially in this pitching matchup and backed by the best bullpen in the majors.
Johnson really struggled when he pitched in the majors last season posting a 6.46 ERA. He's faced the Royals twice before in his career and surrendered 10 runs in 10 innings. 
This is a kill spot for the Royals, whose last three victories have been by an average of 7.3 runs. 



 

Too much of a class difference here for Wisconsin to stay within double digits of Alabama, especially being one-dimensional and lacking a passing attack. 

Nick Saban wants to come out of the gate smoking after losing 42-35 to Ohio State in bowl action last season. Wisconsin, by contrast, lost 59-0 to the Buckeyes.

Wisconsin is in transition with a coaching change to Paul Chryst. Pittsburgh was a slow starter when Chryst coached the Panthers before coming to Wisconsin.

Alabama owns edges all over against the Badgers, who are more inexperienced the perceived defensively.  

Minnesota is not the pushover the oddsmaker and marketplace think it is. Not under Jerry Kill and his long time assistant staff. 
The Gophers have played in bowl games each of the last three seasons, including a New Year's Day Bowl game last season. 
Minnesota has covered nine of the last 13 it has been a 'dog under Kill. One of those non-covers occurred last season at TCU when the Gophers lost 30-7 as 18-point 'dogs. Minnesota had a cluster injury problem in its offensive line in that game and committed five turnovers. 
Now the Gophers are healthy and quarterback Mitch Leidner is more settled down being a junior with 16 starts behind him. 
TCU may very well be overrated by the linesmaker and public. A very good team, yes. A top four team ... no. Among their road games last season for the Horned Frogs was a one-point win against West Virginia, which went 7-6 in 2014, and a four-point victory against Kansas, which went just 3-9. 
If you discount that loss to TCU last year, the Gophers have covered seven in a row as double-digit underdogs the past two seasons. No, I'm not expecting an outright upset. But I do see the Gophers living up to their feisty underdog reputation at home in a revenge spot taking what I believe is an inflated number. 

The Royals are extremely tough at home and the Tigers have almost become an auto fade these days. 
Of course the oddsmaker knows this and that's why he's made this line so high. But to get around that it's safe to lay 1 1/2 runs with the Royals in this huge mismatch.
Detroit is 2-10 in its last 12 games with nine of those 10 defeats coming by more than one run. The Tigers' last three losses have been by a combined 32 runs! 
Don't look for rookie Matt Boyd to get Detroit back on track. The overmatched Boyd is 1-5 with a 7.12 ERA. Boyd has given up six homers during his last three starts. 
The Royals are going with right-hander Edison Volquez, who usually is at his best against bad teams. Kansas City is 10-2 in Volquez's last 12 starts versus under .500 opponents. The Tigers also have dropped seven of their last eight when facing a righty. 

The Eagles are unbeaten in preseason. They've beaten the Colts by 26 points and Ravens by 23 points. 

Now the Eagles can bury another disinterested playoff team from last year, the Packers.

Green Bay just lost Jordy Nelson. The Packers are going to be missing three starting offensive linemen. That likely means they aren't going to risk Aaron Rodgers. 

The Eagles have a great offensive system in place. The Packers are not going to bother game-planning for it. 

Green Bay backup quarterback Scott Tolzien is out leaving untested and not ready for prime time rookie Bett Hundley and Matt Blanchard, who is terrible, to play quarterback for the Packers. Green Bay won't be able to trade points with the Eagles.  

Calgary leads the CFL's Western Division with a 6-2 mark. But the Stampeders have won only one game by more than five points with four of their victories coming by three points or less. 

Calgary wins, but doesn't cover spreads. The Stampeders have covered only one of their last nine games. They are 0-5-1 ATS versus foes with a losing record. One of those non-covers for Calgary occurred last month when it just nipped Winnipeg, 26-25, as 7 1/2-point favorites. 

Winnipeg has a new quarterback, Robert Marve. He made his first start in replacing injured Drew Willy two weeks ago and completed 18 of 29 passes for 203 yards with a touchdown and interception in a 27-20 loss to Toronto.

The Blue Bombers haven't played since giving Marve an extra week to practice and prepare. That's huge. 

Calgary is on the road a second straight week and has a much bigger game on deck when it hosts Edmonton, it's main challenger in the West Division. 

The Stampeders could be without defensive end Charleston Hughes, who has been bothered by a bad back. It would hurt Winnipeg's pass rush if Hughes can't play. 

 Not only do the Blue Bombers have extra preparation time, but they picked up former Stampeders special teams and defensive player, Jasper Simmons. He won't play against Calgary because he doesn't know Winnipeg's system yet, but he can aid in the preparation knowing the Stampeders. 

Motivation is a big key during preseason. The Jaguars have it for this matchup. The Lions don't. 
Lions coach Jim Caldwell has lost 12 of 18 preseason games. Winning meaningless exhibition games isn't a priority for him. Matthew Stafford has thrown 10 passes in Detroit's first two preseason games. I doubt he plays for too long, especially with the Lions breaking in a new right guard. Calvin Johnson isn't expected to play.
This is Jacksonville's final preseason home contest. The game is being televised nationally by CBS. Jaguars coach Gus Bradley and Jacksonville management has different priorities than the Lions. They want to build up sagging fan interest and gain needed confidence.
Bradley hasn't pulled Blake Bortles until late in the second quarter. Bradley is likely to use Bortles and his starters well into the second half in order to prepare for the season and appease the home fans while trying to look good on national TV. 
Jacksonville's offense and defense has played well at times during preseason. The Lions obviously are the better team, but they don't have great depth and lack the home team's motivation. Bortles is much better than Detroit's backup quarterbacks. 

The Nationals are getting well and their confidence up against the Rockies, losers of eight of their last nine games. Every one of the Rockies' losses during this span have been by at least two runs.
Washington has won the first two games of this series by an average of six runs and now has its best pitcher going, Max Scherzer. The Nationals are 8-3 the past 11 times Scherzer has been a road favorite. Scherzer's road ERA this season is 2.41.
The Rockies are going with a bottom of rotation guy, Yohan Flande, who has a 4.19 ERA and owns a 5.87 lifetime ERA against the Nationals in three starts.
Colorado may have the worst bullpen in the majors and Flande hasn't thrown more than 87 pitches in a game all season. Colorado is 2-9 the last 11 times Flande has been an underdog.
The Nationals' last five victories have been by an average of 5.4 runs.
Simply put, this is a kill spot for the Nationals.

Not only do the Steelers have the advantage of having played one game already this preseason, but Mike Tomlin wants to win this matchup after Pittsburgh lost 14-3 to the Vikings during the Hall of Fame Game this past Sunday.
Tomlin held out his offensive stars against the Vikings, but Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, Maurkice Pouncey and Heath Miller are all going to play against the Jaguars. Backup Pittsburgh quarterback Landry Jones should show better, too, after playing the entire Hall of Fame game.
The Steelers have had more time to get into place their system and schemes thanks to having played in the Hall of Fame game. They won't be so vanilla. Jacksonville is 2-6 in preseason during the Gus Bradley era.
The Jaguars lack depth to do well in preseason. That's the situation again with the Jaguars, especially in their defensive line where they already are dealing with an abundance of injuries.
If there was a plus to the Steelers' first preseason game it was the play of their defense, which has gotten considerably younger but now plays faster. The Steelers held the Vikings to an average of three yards per run and stopped them on 10 of 13 third downs.
One of the Jacksonville's priorities is to find a ground game, something it has failed to accomplish during Bradley's coaching tenure. Rookie TJ Yeldon may be the Jaguars' best runner and he might get held out of this game because of a sprained finger.
There is no reason for the Jaguars to risk Yeldon and quarterback Blake Bortles in this their first preseason game.

The Bears are home, have the better backup skill position players and a better coaching staff than the Dolphins.
New coach John Fox is anxious to get the Bears pointed in the right direction after last season's disaster under Marc Trestman. Fox brings an all-star collection of assistant coaches with him - offensive coordinator Adam Gase and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.
I'm not a fan of Dolphins coach Joe Philbin. The Dolphins are experiencing offensive line problems and have nothing to prove here. The Bears do.
Chicago also has the better second-stringers at the skill position spots
Jay Cutler is expected to play a little and he should be fired-up to show the new coaching staff that he can be counted on. Backing up Cutler is veteran Jimmy Clausen, David Fales and Shane Carden, who the Bears like a lot. Ka'Deem Carey and Jeremy Langford are underrated backup running backs to Matt Forte.

As great as Clayton Kershaw is, the Dodgers are just 12-10 in his starts this season. If you give the opponent 1 1/2 runs, the Dodgers are 11-11 with Kershaw on the mound.
Runs are going to be extremely hard to come by in this matchup so asking the Dodgers - the home team - to win by more than one run is a tall order.
The left-handed Kershaw wasn't sharp in his previous outing against Pittsburgh. The Nationals' key right-handed bats are all hot right now with Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond and Jayson Werth picking up their games. They can cause problems for Kershaw. It's an added plus for Washington if Bryce Harper returns to the lineup today as expected.
If Kershaw can't reach the ninth inning the Dodgers are extremely vulnerable as their setup relievers have not been good.
Jordan Zimmerman is one of the better pitchers in the NL and has been for the last several seasons. Washington has won 67 percent of Zimmerman's last 104 starts. Zimmerman has a 2.51 ERA in his last three stars against the Dodgers, who have lost six of the past seven times they've faced Zimmerman. 

Different motivations for these two teams. The Vikings and their pugnacious coach, Mike Zimmer, want to keep proving themselves. Zimmer is stressing winning early even talking Super Bowl.
That talk is crazy, but the Vikings are improved and Zimmer wants to establish a winning mindset early. So I see the justification in Minnesota being favored.
The Steelers returned to the playoffs last season. Their early-season priorities are different than Minnesota's. Mike Tomlin wants to find out who his main running backs are going to be with Le'Veon Bell suspended for the first two games.
Pittsburgh is undergoing massive defensive changes, too, while the Vikings are in the second year of Zimmer's defensive scheme. Long-time defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau no longer is with the Steelers. The Steelers are transitioning to youth on defense and will be going through growing pains early.
Backup quarterbacks are huge when getting involved in preseason and the Vikings own the edge there with veteran second-stringer Shaun Hill, one of the best backups in the league. 

Clayton Kershaw is showing serious signs of matching last year's out-of-this-world pitching numbers. The 27-year-old still is in his absolute prime. He's only given up two earned runs with 43 strikeouts during his last four starts spanning 31 innings.
Kershaw is enjoying the best strikeout rate of his career with a 33.7 percent strikeout rate. He hasn't surrendered a home run in his last four games.
The Mets are in the argument for weakest offense in the majors. They rank last in batting average, second-to-last in OPS and third-from-the-bottom in runs.  
Making this such a strong run line play is the Dodgers offense should do plenty of damage against Mets starter Bartolo Colon and a Mets bullpen that has fatigue issues.
The 42-year-old Colon pitches his best early in the season before he begins to wear down, which is the case now. Colon has yielded 21 runs on 37 hits during his last four starts - all losses - spanning 20 2/3 innings.
Colon doesn't have a good history versus the Dodgers either. The righty has a 2-4 lifetime mark with a 6.03 ERA. The Dodgers trail only Colorado in slugging percentage against right-handers. 

The defending Grey Cup champion Stampeders have not looked good during their first two games. Their lackluster play caught up to them last week as they were upset by Montreal as a 9 1/2-point road favorite.
Toronto, on the other hand, is riding high posting upset victories against Edmonton and Saskatchewan.
Expect things to get back into a natural order with this matchup. Toronto is off an emotional overtime victory and on the road a third straight week. The Argonauts are stepping up in class. They are 1-5 ATS the past six times following a victory.
Bo Levi Mitchell and Calgary's offense are out of the gates slow. But the Stampeders have proven offensive talent, which should pick up now that Mitchell has gotten some of the kinks out and will have speedy wide receiver Jeff Fuller back.
Toronto fill-in quarterback Trevor Harris has been playing well above his head. Expect him to come back down to Earth.
The Stampeders have covered eight of the last nine times they've played a foe with a winning mark and are 23-7 (77%) ATS in their last 30 games following a loss so they have a good history in these type of spots.

Rookie quarterback Rakeem Cato stepped up big last week to spark Montreal to a 29-11 upset win over Calgary, the defending Grey Cup champions. That win came at home and the Alouettes caught the Stampeders in a flat spot.
Now Montreal is in the flat spot and on the road, too. Winnipeg isn't going to take Montreal lightly like Calgary did. The Blue Bombers are off an embarrassing loss to the Tiger-Cats.
The line isn't that high because Blue Bombers quarterback Drew Willy Cato got banged-up last week. He's expected to be fine this week, though. Montreal's defense has been tough the first two weeks but I'm not sold on it. Winnipeg has some dangerous skill position players that I see the Alouettes having problems covering.
Note, too, that Montreal is 2-6 ATS in its last eight trips to Winnipeg and has failed to cover the past four times overall when playing the Blue Bombers.

The won/lost record is skewed by bad run support, but Clayton Kershaw not initially being picked to the NL All-Star team is a joke.
Kershaw is going to be pitching against the Phillies, the worst team in the majors, with a chip on his shoulder. And the Dodgers won't be taking the Phillies lightly after losing, 7-2, to them last night.
If ever there was a kill spot in baseball this is it.
The Phillies are 11-32 on the road, worst in the majors. They are 1-14-1 in their last 16 away series. The Dodgers have won 68 percent of their last 59 home games going 40-19.
Philadelphia has lost 41 games by more than one run. There are 10 teams who haven't lost 41 games all season.
Kershaw still is the best pitcher in baseball. The three-time Cy Young Award winner leads the NL in strikeouts with 147 and has his highest career strikeout-per-nine inning ratio at 11.6. His walks per nine innings are down from his career average of 2.7 and his FIP, a metric that determines the quality of a pitching performance, is No. 2 in the National League.
The southpaw has dominated the Phillies with a 1.73 ERA against them in his last six starts. Philadelphia has lost seven of the past nine times facing a lefty.
The Phillies are starting rookie Adam Morgan, who has a 2.13 ERA in his first two starts. Expect a huge regression from Morgan as the league sees more of him. Morgan was 13-28 in 69 minor league games with a 3.53 ERA.

There is too much value to overlook here on the Cavaliers. The Warriors took advantage of Cleveland's tired legs to blow out the Cavaliers in Game 4.
But the Cavaliers will be fresher in this matchup with two days of rest instead of one. Cleveland is 8-2 ATS the past 10 times when playing on two days rest. If you throw out Game 4, Cleveland would be 17-0 ATS in the playoffs taking this many points. The Cavaliers also are 7-2 ATS following a non-cover.
The Cavaliers are going to shoot better than 33 percent from the floor, which they did in Game 4 while missing 23 of 27 shots from beyond the arc. LeBron James missed 15 of 22 shots from the field. If it weren't for their bad shooting, the Cavaliers were right there with the Warriors in Game 4 outrebounding them and committing fewer than 10 turnovers.
James and Co. won't be intimidated playing at Oracle Arena either. They are 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS in the playoffs on the road. One of those losses and non-point spread covers came in Game 1 at Oracle when the Cavaliers lost by eight in overtime.
Golden State has failed to cover 10 of its last 15 home contests and haven't been overly impressive in the playoffs.
Prop Recommendation:
I would play against Andre Iguodala going under his point total and any prop that features his combined points, rebounds and assists. Iguodala is getting a lot of attention because of his 22-point game in Game 4. But he played more than 39 minutes, which is three minutes more than he's played in any of the other nine previous playoff games Golden State has played in. 
Iguodala averaged just 7.8 points per game during the regular season. Prior to Game 4, he was averaging nine points per game during Golden State's previous nine playoff games.
Iguodala is defensive-minded. He's a good all-around player, but shooting is not his strength. He just happen to have a lucky scoring night in Game 4. 

It's hard to envision the Cavaliers playing much better than they did during the first 48 minutes of Game 1 - and that was before Kyrie Irving suffered a knee injury in overtime. Despite their efforts, the Cavaliers not only failed to win Game 1, but couldn't cover the 5 1/2-to-6 point spread.
By contrast, the Warriors didn't bring their "A" game this past Thursday. They came out tight. Perhaps it was a case of nerves following the long layoff. The Warriors missed 16 of 31 inside shots during regulation.
I'm expecting a much better performance from the Warriors now in Game 2. Golden State is 20-5-1 ATS the past 26 times when playing on two days rest.
On the flip side, I doubt that the Cavaliers can play as well as they did during regulation this past Thursday. That's especially the case with Irving out. Cleveland was plus five points when Irving was on the court and minus 13 when he was on the bench.
As great as he is, LeBron James can't do it alone and Golden State's bench is far superior to Cleveland's. The Warriors proved that in Game 1.  
The Warriors have been strong money-makers in this role going 21-8-2 during their past 31 home games versus opponents with a winning road mark.

Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball - when he doesn't face the Cardinals. The Dodgers are 6-11 against St. Louis the last 17 times Kershaw has gone against the Cardinals.
Kershaw isn't having his typical dominant season either so far with a 4-3 record and 3.73 ERA. He has a 5.69 ERA in his last eight games against the Cardinals.
The Dodgers have key injuries on offense and have scored three or fewer runs in 15 of their last 20 games. LA would be 2-8 in its last 10 games if laying 1 1/2 runs.
Cardinals starter Jaime Garcia has been held back because of injuries not lack of talent. The lefty has been strong in three starts since coming off the DL posting a 2.70 ERA. Note, too, that the Dodgers' OPS versus southpaws is .693 compared to .806 against righties.

Golden State has been minus 9 1/2, or higher, in each of its eight home playoff games versus the Pelicans, Grizzlies and Rockets. The last time the Warriors were this low of a home favorite was Jan. 5.
The Warriors have lost only three times at home all season in 49 games at Oracle Arena.
I believe Golden State is the better team - with an emphasis on team - and the point spread is more than fair.
The Warriors have played the tougher competition being in the West, have the superior coach, possess better 3-point shooters and are better defensively.
Golden State is ready to win the championship. The Warriors have been together the last couple of seasons as they've paid their playoff dues. Their chemistry and togetherness are major keys. An example of this is the Warriors led the NBA in assists per possession and are No. 1 in that category so far during the playoffs.
The Cavaliers were just put together this season. Kevin Love is out. Kyrie Irving isn't 100 percent. His defense can be exploited. Cleveland relies so heavily upon LeBron James. Granted, James is the best player in the world.
But the Warriors can guard James as well - if not better - than any team in the NBA with a combination of Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes and Klay Thompson. Green is a top defender and one of the most underrated players in the league.
The Warriors should win the rest of the matchups particularly in the backcourt with their own superstar, Stephen Curry, and Thompson.
The Cavaliers are more 1-on-1 oriented than the Warriors because of their heavy reliance on James. Green and the tight Warriors defense won't allow James to dominate inside by backing them down. As great as James is, he's still only 12-for-68 from 3-point range during the playoffs for 17 percent.
Cleveland can get away with that versus Eastern Conference foes, including a battered Hawks team that relied heavily on reserves and didn't measure up. But the Cavaliers can't get away with this on the road versus the best of the west.
The Cavaliers have failed to cover in five of their last six visits to Golden State.

I don't believe it's a leap of faith to believe the Hawks can keep things close in this matchup. If the Hawks are going to win a game in this series this is their spot.
Atlanta is in desperate straits down 0-2 with both losses coming at home. The Cavaliers can't help but feel overconfident. This is a letdown for them spot up 2-0 and returning home after burying the Hawks by 12 points two nights ago. The Cavaliers are 4-9 ATS the past 13 times they've played on one day's rest.
The Cavaliers might elect to hold out Kyrie Irving. Even if the hobbled Irving plays, he'll be wearing a knee brace as he deals with aggravated tendinitis.
DeMarre Carroll isn't at 100 percent either for Atlanta and Kyle Korver is out with a sprained ankle. The Hawks' bench, though, is decent and received a lot of work during the latter part of the season. Korver was having a disappointing postseason.
The Hawks are just 10-for-49 (20.4 percent) from 3-point range in this series. So Korver wasn't a big help. Atlanta is a much better shooting team than that.
Yes, the Hawks don't have anyone near the caliber of LeBron James. But they are a skilled and clever team that - up to this point - always had been relentless and prideful. I believe those season-long traits have not completely disappeared.
Atlanta has covered seven of the past eight times following a double-digit loss. They also are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 away matchups versus opponents with a winning home mark.

Not only are the Warriors far superior to the Rockets, but the situation sets up well for them.
Golden State last played on Friday, while the Rockets exerted all of their energy in capturing their series against the Clippers after being down 3-1 clinching this past Sunday.
Certainly I give the Rockets credit for not quitting against the Clippers being down 19 points in the second half on the road in Game 6. But I attribute this more to an epic choke job by LA.
I didn't see a lot of defense from Houston. The Rockets were able to take advantage of the Clippers' reserves playing terrible during much of the last four games.
The Rockets aren't polished and lack the Warriors' precision and defense. Houston also can't come close to matching up against Golden State's backcourt tandem of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. The Rockets really are going to miss underrated point guard Patrick Beverley, particularly his defense, in this series.
Golden State won and covered all four meetings during the regular season against the Rockets with Curry and Thompson combining to average better than 47 points per game while shooting 50 percent from the field.
The point spread may seem high, but the Warriors won 55 percent of their games this season by double-digits. They covered 59 percent of the time when laying 10 or more points.
The Rockets have lost 18 times by 10 or more points. The Rockets are 5-4 during their last nine playoff games. Each of those four defeats came by double-digits with their average losing margin being by 21.5 points a game.

Atlanta played one its best game of the playoffs in Game 4 defeating the Wizards on the road, 106-101, two nights ago. The Hawks shot a series-high 47.1 percent from the floor and sank 9-of-19 3-point shots.
Yet the Wizards - who didn't play up to their full capabilities and were minus John Wall - were within an open 3-point jumper by the normally clutch Paul Pierce of tying the game with seven seconds left.
Now the scene shifts to Atlanta. The Hawks have yet to produce an "A" game for 48 minutes. They've played well in spurts. But lost their mojo down the stretch of the regular season when Mike Budenholzer was resting players. They have yet to rediscover their early-season dominance. The playoffs are about superstars. The Hawks have good players. Not superstars.
The Wizards are at their most dangerous on the road in the playoffs. During the past two seasons, Washington is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS away from Verizon Center in the playoffs. They are 5-0 with Wall during the post-season. Wall has a broken non-shooting hand, but could play. He's a game-time decision. I like the Wizards here even if Wall doesn't play.
Atlanta is 1-4-1 ATS following a straight-up victory. The Wizards have covered in five of their last six road contests. The Hawks couldn't put the Wizards away in Game 4 when they stepped up their game - scoring just one basket during the final 3:30 and that was on a 3-pointer by Teague as the 24-second clock was expiring because he couldn't find a higher-percentage scoring option before time ran out.
I expect the Wizards to perform better. It's an extra bonus if Wall plays. Even if the Hawks continue to play well in spurts - which isn't a given - they still haven't shown enough to close out the Wizards and cover this large of a number. Only twice in their last 20 games have the Wizards lost by more than eight points.  

The last two games have been decided on final shots. These teams are very close.
It's a huge plus if Pau Gasol can play. But even if he can't, I like taking this many points with Chicago. The Bulls are better coached, have a deeper bench and the Cavaliers are minus Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving is severely limited by foot and knee injuries.
Irving has missed 18 of 23 shots from the floor during the last two games. Cleveland is just 2-8 ATS when playing on one day's rest. 

Maybe the oddsmaker considers the Grizzlies beating the Warriors in Game 2 AND Game 3 a fluke. I don't and have the statistics and matchups to back it up.
Some people are holding on too much to the regular season. It doesn't mean anything now. What is meaningful is the Grizzlies have outscored the Warriors by 19 points during the past nine quarters. Memphis has been ahead for nearly 90 of the 96 minutes during the last two games.  
Memphis is the more experienced playoff team, has a taller more physical frontcourt and possess backcourt defensive aces to control Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.
The Grizzlies can score inside with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. Mike Conley provides backcourt scoring. The Warriors, on the other hand, are in trouble when Curry and Thompson go cold. They don't have the Grizzlies' inside-outside game being a small, jump-shooting team.
Memphis scored 14 more points than the Warriors in the paint in Game 3 while owning a 44-39 rebounding edge. The Warriors won't have injured reserve forward Marreese Speights for this game either.
Bothered by defensive whiz Tony Allen, the Warriors missed 20 of 26 3-point shots in Game 3. The key takeaway here is the Warriors just weren't on a cold spell. The flow and pace were clearly in Memphis' favor. The Warriors aren't nearly as dangerous hitting 3-pointers from half-court sets. They are at their best on the open court off turnovers. Yet they couldn't score one point off a Memphis turnover during the first half of Game 3.
The Grizzlies ranked No. 2 in the NBA in fewest points allowed per game. They have a very tough home court and are 5-0 in the playoffs when Conley has played, 4-0 at FedEx Forum.  
Memphis is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six home games. Golden State is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games. It's clear again the oddsmaker/marketplace is misreading these teams.
The Grizzlies are a matchup nightmare for the Warriors - and they are home. This should be a pick'em type of line. Getting points, especially this many, is a generous gift.

Do I have concerns about the Rockets' lack of defense, basketball savvy and mental toughness?
Yes. But I also respect the Zig-Zag theory and the Rockets' star power. The superstars are going to cancel each other out, but I see the Rockets' key secondary players - namely Josh Smith and Trevor Ariza - shooting better while Austin Rivers and J.J. Redick fall back to Earth after playing the games of their life.
Smith is 9-for-31 shooting in the series. Ariza has missed 13 of 17 shots from 3-point range. Smith isn't a high percentage shooter, but he has big time talent while Ariza is underrated and normally a much more reliable shooter and defender.
Pride and the series are on the line here for the Rockets. Houston is 22-8 ATS following a loss. The Rockets haven't been this big of underdogs in more than 10 weeks.
The Rockets are better defensively than they've showed. They ranked sixth in points per possession during the regular season and held Chris Paul to 36.7 percent shooting from the floor during the regular season. Paul isn't 100 percent because of a hamstring aliment. He isn't likely to have the same adrenalin he had in Game 3 when he played for the first time since hitting the game-winning basket in Game 7 versus the Spurs.  
Neither are the Clippers, who are due for a letdown after taking out the defending champion Spurs in an epic seven-game first round series and blowing out the Rockets at home two days ago by 25 points.
Still, the Rockets need to make adjustments. I believe they will plus come out with tremendous intensity. I'm expecting to see Dwight Howard more involved in the offense. Defensively, I expect to see the Rockets go all out to get back on transition while limiting the Clippers' fast-break opportunities.
These teams are close to even talent-wise. The Clippers have been the smarter team. But changes and adjustments are coming from Houston. The Rockets are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games when playing on one day's rest, while the Clippers are 2-8 during their past 10 home games.
So perspective needs to be maintained. The Rockets were this big of favorites during the first two games of the series. Now the line is completely reversed. It's way too much of an overreaction.



 
 
 

This isn't the regular season. The Warriors may be the best team in the NBA, but they have to prove it again. I don't see them having an easy run trying to accomplish it.
Should we overreact to Mike Conley's dramatic return and Tony Allen's outstanding defense in the Grizzlies' surprising 97-90 Game 2 road upset victory?
No, but this spread isn't giving the Grizzlies enough respect. Memphis is strong at FedEx Forum and creates matchup problems for the Warriors.
The Grizzlies have a tall, physical frontline. They also have outstanding backcourt defenders who can keep Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson in check. Allen has 12 steals in his last three games. Conley is playing great two-way basketball. The Grizzlies are 4-0 in the playoffs when Conley has played.
The Grizzlies ranked second in fewest points allowed per game. They tied for the fourth-best home record at 31-10. The Warriors won a league-high 28 road games during the regular season, but went just 14-12 during their last 26 regular season away contests.
Golden State is 2-10 in its last 12 games at FedEx Forum. The Grizzlies are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games versus opponents with a winning record.
Based on their record, the Warriors probably deserve to be a road favorite. But not by this much. I see value here with the Grizzlies - and that's the way I'm going.  

 

Perhaps the Bulls are better than the Cavaliers when Cleveland is minus Kevin Love and J.R. Smith.
But I'm willing to lay this spread with a fired-up LeBron James playing at home knowing Cleveland absolutely can't go down 0-2 in this series having played their first two games at Quicken Loans Arena.
Chicago played well in Game 1 on Monday. So nothing against the Bulls. But Cleveland is a very good defensive team, especially at home. I don't expect the Bulls to make half of their shots from the floor like they did on Monday, nor for Pau Gasol and Derrick Rose to be as successful in executing pick-and-roll plays.
I do expect the Cavaliers to be far less rusty. They had been idle for eight days before meeting the Bulls. I do expect James to shoot much better than of 9-of-22 like he did in Game 1 and to get to the free throw line far more than just twice. James will accomplish this by not settling for so many long jumpers like he did on Monday. He's going to play far more aggressive. He knows all of Tom Thibodeau's defenses. It's just a question of making his shots.
The Bulls have been far less effective when playing with just one day rest, which is the case here. Chicago lost the past two times to Milwaukee in Round 1 when playing on one day's rest.
This is the Cavaliers' season. They are 13-6 ATS the past 19 times following a loss. I expect them to respond with a big effort and I want them going for me today.

Forget the Zig/Zag and the Hawks being the superior team. Neither is going to hold up here.
Washington upset Atlanta in Game 1 despite shooting less than 42 percent from the floor. The Wizards were the more rested team by far, but somewhat rusty. The Hawks were lucky to have drawn the Nets as their first-round playoff opponent.
Atlanta isn't playing well. The Hawks averaged just 20.3 points during the final three quarters against the Wizards in Game 1. The Hawks were settling for low-percentage perimeter shots and not getting to the free throw line.
John Wall gives Washington a point guard edge to go with the Wizards' strong rebounding advantage. Wall has dished off 55 assists during the last four games. He's playing at a far higher level than Jeff Teague.  
Paul Pierce is proving a savvy, veteran presence for the Wizards and Otto Porter has been a surprise off the bench. The Wizards were plus 11 during Porter's time on the court in Game 1 on Sunday.
The facts are the Hawks are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games. The Wizards are 8-1 SU, 9-0 ATS the past two years in road playoff games beating market expectations by an average of 11.8 points per game.
It's time to face that reality.

Despite missing Kevin Love and suspended J. R. Smith, I don't see the Cavaliers falling to the Bulls in Game 1.
The Cavaliers are an elite home team, have had eight days to rest and prepare and have a motivated and healthy LeBron James.
Jimmy Butler was a monster against the Bucks in the Bulls' first-round series. Butler, though, isn't going to be the offensive force he was against Milwaukee having to concentrate and use so much of his energy to guard James.
Tristan Thompson doesn't have Love's offensive game, but he's a beast on the boards and can successfully defend Pau Gasol. The Bulls own the stronger bench, but that's not going to factor much in this opening game because of Cleveland's extended rest and ample preparation time. Veterans Shawn Marion and Mike Miller can be counted on to step up for the Cavaliers in this spot given their vast playoff experience.  
I do expect James and Kyrie Irving to play heavy minutes. The Cavaliers have the shooters and ability, with James' drives to the basket, to spread the floor and make open shots. That style works against Gasol and inside defensive whiz Joakim Noah.    
Irving is a legitimate star. He's overshadowed by James. Derrick Rose was a star, but has yet to prove consistent since returning from injury. James and Irving can be counted on. I can't say the same for Rose.  

Damn the perception. The fact is the Wizards are road playoff warriors. They've proven that the past two seasons going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS. Now they catch a break with the scheduling of this game.
The Hawks are on a short turnaround having finally dispatched the Nets this past Friday. This is an early start game. They've had to travel three times already this week. The Wizards have been idle for a week leaving them fresh and well prepared.  
Forget the regular season. It doesn't mean anything now. The Hawks peaked too early. They lost their mojo by resting starters too much down the stretch. It's a stinging indictment how much trouble they encountered taking six games to dispatch the Nets, who didn't play particularly well and were the worst team to make the playoffs. Atlanta is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine games.
The Wizards have the better point guard in John Wall, have been playing better defense and are a much superior rebounding team. They also are healthy while the Hawks are nicked up with Al Horford bothered by a right pinkie injury and Paul Millsap dealing with a sore right shoulder.
Washington has beaten market expectations by close to 100 points in covering its last eight playoff road games. The Wizards are better than last season, too, now that savvy veteran Paul Pierce is on the team.
This sets up as a perfect opportunity for the Wizards to steal Game 1.

I'm not convinced San Antonio is the superior team, let alone can cover this mid-range spread. The Clippers' stars are in their prime and in a must-win spot. Their NBA championship window can close as fast as aged San Antonio's in today's rapidly changing NBA.
The Spurs should get the Clippers' best effort here. This has been a 'dog series with the underdog covering 13 of the past 17 times. Los Angeles also has proven itself on the road going 12-3-1 ATS during its past 16 away matchups. The Clippers know they can win on the road. They blew a 14-point lead in their last game against San Antonio at home, probably coming within a foolish offensive goaltending violation of beating the Spurs and owning the series lead.
The Spurs nipped the Clippers in Game 5 by making 11 of 23 shots from 3-point range compared to the Clippers hitting only one of 14 from beyond the arc. San Antonio's reserves made 10 of 14 shots from 3-point range. These kind of figures aren't likely to come close to holding up. Certainly Jamal Crawford, the Clippers' top reserve, is due to break out of his shooting slump. He's missed an unbelievable 18 of his last 19 3-point shots during the past four games.

 NFL Draft Props 
Todd Gurley Under 20 1/2 in Round 1
At least one Internet sportsbook has an over/under of 20 1/2 in the first round of when Georgia running back Todd Gurley will be picked. I like under. I believe Gurley will be among the first 15 players selected.
Gurley is ahead of his rehab schedule after suffering a torn ACL this past November. His draft stock has risen considerably because of it. Gurley is a complete package runner. He could be the best running back prospect of the past three seasons.
There is a lot of pre-draft buzz about the Dolphins taking him at No. 14, but Gurley may get snatched up before then. He could go as high as No. 6. A possible landing spot could be to the Browns at No. 12.
The Browns need a featured star running back. Their quarterbacks are Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel. Cleveland failed to reach triple digits in rushing during half of their games last season.

More than 5 1/2 wide receivers being taken in Round 1
I see nine potential first-round wide receivers. Amari Cooper and Kevin White are likely to be among the first eight picks. It wouldn't surprise me to see DeVante Parker, Breshad Perriman and Phillip Dorsett go in the top 20.
Nelson Agholor is fast-rising so it now appears he's going in the first round. Dorial Green-Beckham is too intriguing a prospect to not get picked in the opening round. The Saints and Ravens are picking late in the draft and they both have receiving needs.
Devin Smith and Jalen Strong are worthy of first-round consideration, too.

Now that Dallas got its victory in Game 4 at home, I don't see the Mavericks showing up here.
The Mavericks are old and through. Chandler Parsons is hurt. Rajon Rondo basically has been kicked off the team and Dirk Nowitzki has too much age. The Mavericks lack the athleticism, chemistry and defense to stay close to the Rockets in this close-out match.
Dallas also has a terrible history in Houston having not won there since 2005. The Rockets beat the Mavericks by double-digits in each of the first two playoff games at home.
Even in losing Game 4, the Rockets still put up 109 points on a weak Dallas defense - and that was missing 16 straight shots at one point.
Dwight Howard is fresh after having missed much of the regular season and Houston's other starters actually logged fewer minutes than Dallas's key players during the past game.
Led by James Harden, the Rockets are a dangerous shooting team from beyond the arc. The Mavericks ranked 27th in 3-point defense. The Rockets can  beat the Mavericks inside with Howard, or via the perimeter.

Take away the first quarter of Game 1 and you could say the Nets have been the better team during the past 11 quarters of this series. The Nets served a big wake-up call to the Hawks by finally prevailing in Game 3, 91-83, at home this past Saturday.

Atlanta isn't playing nearly as well as it did earlier this season, averaging 10 points less per game so far in the playoffs than it did during the regular season. But I don't like the makeup of the Nets. Most of their best players are past their prime, they don't have a strong fan base with Barclays Center estimated to be only about 40 percent full at tip-off in Game 3 and Deron Williams isn't physically right. 

The Hawks are due to play much better. Their backcourt players missed 24 of 30 shots from the perimeter in Game 3. The open looks were there, for the most part, the shots just weren't dropping. Kyle Korver, Jeff Teague and Al Horford were only a combined 8-for-33 from the floor. 

The prideful Hawks are extremely well-coached and play with far more precision than Brooklyn. Atlanta's intensity is sure to be up. Cleveland is resting now after sweeping the Celtics and the Bulls are likely to close out the Bucks today. So the Hawks have a great deal of urgency to turn in their "A" game. They can't let this series get knotted at 2-2 and then face at least two more games. 

Williams is battling both injury and ineffectiveness missing 13 of 15 shots from the floor during the last two games while dealing with tendinitis.  

Last Sunday, the Clippers opened their first-round series against the Spurs winning, 107-92, at home.
Now, a week later, the Clippers are middle-range road underdogs. That's what happens when you lose in overtime at home in Game 2 and get blown out this past Friday at San Antonio by 27 points.
These teams, though, are much closer than this point spread especially with Tony Parker hampered by soreness in his right Achilles' tendon, left knee and left quadriceps. Parker is playing, but he's been ineffective missing 21 of 28 shots from the floor.
I'm expecting a huge bounce back effort from the Clippers following their worst playoff defeat in franchise history. The Clippers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games and should be up 2-1 in the series.
San Antonio is a proud champion, but this is not one of its great teams. The Game 3 blowout was unexpected. It would be even more of a shock if the Spurs blow out the Clippers - whose top stars are in their prime - a second time in a row.
Chris Paul gives the Clippers a point guard edge with Parker not 100 percent. Rarely has Paul played poorly in consecutive games. Jamal Crawford and J.J. Redick are due for much better performances, too, after making only a combined 5-of-18 shots from the floor in Game 3.

Golden State wins games. But the Warriors don't cover point spreads. They are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games, 0-6 during their past six matchups. 
New Orleans is full of talent with the best big man in the game, Anthony Davis. The Pelicans match up well to the Warriors, who are a jump-shooting, small team. 
The Pelicans trailed Golden State by six with under a minute to play in Game 1 before losing by seven. The Pelicans blew a 13-point lead in losing Game 2.
Then, two nights ago at home, the Pelicans lost a 20-point fourth quarter lead and fell in overtime. 
Golden State has savvy, heart and playoff experience. The Warriors know how to win. The Pelicans don't. But New Orleans is well past its playoff jitters being in the postseason for the first time since 2011. 
Sure there is a chance the Pelicans quit after being so close to victory in their last game. There also is the chance the Warriors still are celebrating their miracle Game 3 comeback and don't play with their usual concentration, focus and high energy. 
It's very difficult - and somewhat of a guess - to try to figure out a team's psyche. But I do know the Warriors are 0-7 ATS the past seven times following a victory and have failed to cover 19 of the past 26 times when playing on one day's rest.
New Orleans is 20-7 ATS at home versus opponents with a winning record and have covered in their last six home contests. The Pelicans haven't been this big of home 'dogs since Jan. 30. 

Memphis beat Portland, 100-86, in Sunday's Game 1 playoff game. I see the Grizzlies winning again by double digits at home in Game 2. 

The Trail Blazers have a key injury, are suffering from lack of confidence and do not match well against the physical Grizzlies. The Grizzlies could have buried the Trail Blazers by even more as they led by 24 points entering the final quarter. 

Memphis owns Portland. The Grizzlies have won and covered all five meetings this season, winning three of them by double-digits. Portland is 0-4 ATS in its last four visits to FedEx Forum.  

This is where the Trail Blazers really miss Wesley Matthews, their highly underrated, all-purpose swingman. The Grizzlies are able to clamp down on Damian Lillard while their tall, bruising front court players keep LaMarcus Aldridge in check. The Trail Blazers don't have any other consistent scoring weapons. C.J. McCollum certainly isn't ready for prime time and Arron Afflalo has missed the past four games with a sore shoulder. Even if he plays today his shooting can't be relied upon. 

Not only did Mike Conley show he could deal with his painful right heel that had kept him out of the last four games of the regular season, but defensive whiz Tony Allen also played strong, too, in Game 1 for the Grizzlies in his first action since March 27. Allen had three steals. 

Conley should perform even better now that he knocked some of the rust off. Backup Grizzlies point guard Beno Udrih, meanwhile, has been playing extremely well. He had 20 points, seven assists, seven rebounds and did not turn the ball over in 24:12 minutes of action in Game 1. 

The Grizzlies ranked No. 2 in fewest points allowed per game during the season. Portland is a finesse team, extremely vulnerable to the physical Grizzlies.

Lillard missed 16 of 21 shots from the floor and had only three assists in nearly 40 minutes. Portland could manage just six fastbreak points in Game 1 as the Grizzlies controlled tempo. That's not going to change here. If anything it's going to get worse judging by the matchup issues the Trail Blazers face and their sagging body language, which shows a realistic lack of faith against this opponent in this tough setting.   

Detroit is 14 games better than New York. The Pistons average seven more points per game than the Knicks.
The big question is can the Pistons cover a mid-size road number in this matchup? Detroit has the talent and coaching to do it. I also believe the Pistons have the motivation thanks to Stan Van Gundy while the Knicks need to lose this game.
New York has potentially hurt its ping pong lottery chances by winning two in a row, including impressively defeating the Hawks in its last game two nights ago. OK, point made by Derek Fisher.
Now reality has to sink in for the Knicks, who should be fat and happy even though this is their worst season in franchise history. A victory here could severely hurt the Knicks in the long run - something their management is well aware of. If New York beats the Pistons today and the Timberwolves and 76ers also lose, the Knicks would finished tied for the second-worst record with Philadelphia.
That would mean a coin toss between the Knicks and 76ers for the No. 2 lottery seed. If the Knicks were to lose that coin flip they would drop down to the No. 3 seed and in the lottery drawing a team could fall three spots. That means the Knicks could potentially end up with the sixth pick in the draft despite having the worst record in franchise history. But lose here to the Pistons and that scenario is erased.
The Pistons are a lottery team, too, but winning this game won't change their seeding placement. Detroit has revenge for a 121-115 home loss to the Knicks on Feb. 27.
Detroit has a huge talent edge particularly upfront with Andre Drummond and upcoming free agent Greg Monroe, who really would like to shine in this game since there are heavy rumors that he's going to sign with the Knicks following the season. Van Gundy is an extremely prideful man. He doesn't want his season ending on a pair of sour notes with a loss to the lowly Knicks after getting blown out in their previous game against the Cavaliers, 109-97, this past Monday.
The Pistons are 9-0 ATS following a double-digit defeat. The fiery Van Gundy has kept Detroit competitive down the stretch despite not making the playoffs. The Pistons have covered in nine of their last 13 games.

First of all, this line has moved considerably since I first put it out. I like Toronto - even as a short favorite - but I would only recommend the Raptors as a one unit wager now since the early value has been lost.

Here is my analysis on the game:

Outstanding job by the Celtics this season to make the playoffs. But the young Celtics aren't better than Toronto and will be hard-pressed not to avoid a letdown after clinching a playoff spot last night when the Nets lost to the Bulls.
The Raptors are 2-1 versus Boston this season with their lone loss occurring in overtime by one point on a Boston basket at the buzzer 10 days ago at home. Toronto has plenty of incentive trailing Chicago by one-half game for the No. 3 seed in the East, quick revenge and looking to set a franchise record for victories during the regular season.
Toronto is back playing well winning six of its last eight. Star Raptors point guard Kyle Lowry should be less rusty. This will be his third game back after missing seven in a row because of back trouble.
Boston concludes its regular season tomorrow night at Milwaukee. The Celtics are a fantastic 10-1 the past 11 times when playing without rest. However, they are 4-7 during the first of consecutive games, which this matchup is. This record includes three consecutive losses at home. Overall, the Celtics have lost and failed to cover in four of their past six home contests.

Utah cares about this game - with triple revenge motivation and this being its last home game of the season.
Dallas doesn't care. The Mavericks are locked into the No. 7 seed and are expected to rest all of their key players. Monta Ellis, Dirk Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler all are expected to sit out. Reports have them not even traveling to the game. Chandler Parson isn't expected to play either because of a knee injury that has kept him out of the past four games.
Dallas has failed to cover in eight of its last 11 road matchups. This is its third road contest in four days and second in two days. The Mavericks are 0-3 SU and ATS the past three times when playing without rest.
The Jazz are playing well going 18-9 since the All-Star break. Utah ranks No. 1 in defense holding foes to 94.7 points per game. The Jazz have held 19 of their last 24 opponents under 93 points a game. No team has played stronger defense since mid-February.
Utah is an excellent current form winning six of its last eight while going 6-1-1 ATS. The Jazz have scored 101 or more points in three of their last four games.
This is a give-up, meaningless game for Dallas. The Jazz have everything going.

This matchup should have a playoff-type intensity with both teams desperately needing to win in their respective bids to earn a postseason berth - and I want the points with the Western Conference team.
Oklahoma City has won its last five games versus Eastern Conference competition defeating the Raptors, Bulls, Celtics, Hawks and Heat.
The Thunder are minus Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka. That knocks them out of elite status, but they still have talent with Russell Westbrook, Enes Kanter and Dion Waiters. Their record would look much better if they were in the Eastern Conference despite their major injuries.
Oklahoma City got back on track by rolling past Sacramento, 116-103, this past Thursday. Prior to beating the Kings, the Thunder had played the Spurs, Rockets, Grizzlies and Mavericks. That's a brutal schedule. The Pacers aren't nearly as good as the Spurs, Rockets and Grizzlies.
Yes, Indiana is playing well winning four in a row. But the Pacers have taken advantage of a weak schedule having faced six consecutive sub .500 opponents. Now they step up in a chalk role.
 

I see the Dodgers rebounding in a big way after losing to Arizona last night. Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball and he's opposed by Archie Bradley, who is making his first big league start.
Kershaw has given up just one earned run in his last two starts versus the Diamondbacks spanning 15 innings. The Diamondbacks ' offense is heavily reliant on superstar Paul Goldschmidt and he's batting .206 lifetime against Kershaw in 29 at bats. Arizona has lost in six of its last seven games versus southpaws.
Bradley has to not only prove he's big-league ready, but also that's he over a right flexor strain that bothered him last year when he went 3-7 with a 4.45 ERA in 18 minor league starts.

This is an awkward spot for the Bulls. They just returned home following a three-game road trip that culminated in a satisfying victory two days ago against Miami. Following this game, the Bulls have a more challenging matchup on Monday at Brooklyn. This is Chicago's lone home matchup during a one-week span.
That could mean reduced focus since the Bulls head right back to the road after just arriving home yesterday. This isn't necessarily a kill spot for the Bulls, who are playing for the third time in four days. They just want to win and get the rust of Derrick Rose - who has missed 16 of 24 shots from the floor since returning from injury two games ago.
The 76ers won't have Nerlens Noel due to a sprained ankle. But the 76ers still are holding out hope of reaching 20 victories, which is a big deal for them.
Philadelphia has been idle since Wednesday when it was blasted at home by the Wizards, 119-90. So motivation, effort and prep time shouldn't be lacking.
The 76ers have covered 11 of the last 15 times following an ATS loss. They also are 14-3 ATS after losing by 10 or more points at home.
The Bulls haven't been good in this role failing to cover 17 of the past 25 times when going against under .500 teams.

This is the first of a three-game road trip for the Grizzlies, who are locked into a close race for playoff seeding in the West. Memphis could tumble all the way from being the No. 2 seed to being the sixth seed. That could happen if the Grizzlies lose here.
Because after this game, the Grizzlies play a hot and well-rested Clippers team on Saturday and then take on the NBA-best Warriors on Monday.
The Grizzlies are well aware of this. They know this is a game they can not afford to lose. Their motivation should be even more increased having lost at home to the Jazz, 93-82, last month.
Utah is playing well even though it is out of the playoff race. But the Jazz are stepping way up in class here. During their last five games, the Jazz have gone against the Timberwolves, Nuggets, Suns and Kings twice. None of those teams can play defense. Memphis can.
The Jazz need sharpshooter Gordon Hayward to hit his perimeter shots to beat at elite opponent. Hayward has been having a career season, but now has hit the wall. He's missed 11 of 14 shots from the floor during the last two games and Jazz coach Quin Snyder is restricting his minutes.
I don't see any of the Jazz's young and inconsistent shooters stepping up against such a quality defensive foe. The Grizzlies yield 95.1 points per game, second-best in the NBA.

Both teams have playoff incentive. Miami is favored because its home and Chicago is playing without rest.
But the Bulls are the better team and could have their starting lineup intact again if Derrick Rose plays as expected. Rose got some rust off last night, but the Bulls lost to Orlando. That was their third consecutive road loss. They are 0-2 on this road swing, which concludes with this matchup.
Chicago hasn't lost four road games in a row all season. The Bulls desperately don't want to go 0-3 on this road trip either. The Bulls' starting lineup is trying to get back in sync. Chicago is 15-5 when it's regular starters have opened the game.
The Bulls are playing for the second consecutive night. However, they just had a short trip from Central Florida to South Florida and were idle on Monday and Tuesday. So there shouldn't be a fatigue factor. Rose's minutes may be limited, but Miami is far more banged-up.
Several Miami players are battling illness, including Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers. They may not play. In addition, several other key Miami players aren't 100 percent including Hassan Whiteside (hand) and Luol Deng (knee). Remember, Chris Bosh is out for the season. You know Miami is a MASH unit when Dwayne Wade could be their healthiest player right now.
The Heat are just 3-7 in their last 10 games. Miami is only 1-4 in its last five games failing to cover the spread in any of those contests. Chicago is 12-5 ATS after not covering the spread in its previous game.
The Bulls should be embarrassed about losing to lowly Orlando. They have the defensive intensity to take advantage of Miami's weak offense. Only two teams average fewer points per game than Miami.
The Heat are going to need to hit their perimeter shots with defensive ace Joakim Noah patrolling the middle for Chicago. Miami, though, is averaging only 18 percent from beyond the arc in its last three games and has missed 30 of 35 shots from 3-point range in their two matchups this season versus the Bulls, who rank fifth in 3-point defensive field goal percentage.
 

The perception is the Hawks are going to roll over for the Nets. That's not going to be the case here.
The Hawks are vastly better than Brooklyn even not having Paul Millsap for this game. Atlanta is 3-0 this season versus the Nets winning those matchups by a combined 66 points, an average victory margin of 22 points.  
Atlanta has a strong bench and wants to establish a good rhythm going into the playoffs. Losing doesn't foster that. The Hawks blew out the Suns last night. None of Atlanta's players logged more than 27 minutes.
Another reason why the Hawks don't want to lose in this spot is they have the right to swap draft picks with the Nets. They would do that if the Nets missed the playoffs. So the Hawks can hurt Brooklyn's playoff chances with a victory. That might have factored when Atlanta hammered the Nets, 131-99, this past Saturday.
 

These two teams just met this past Sunday and the Clippers blew out the Lakers, 106-78. That game opened as low as Clippers minus 11 1/2. Now look at where the point spread is.
The Clippers enjoy blowing out their long-time city rival. They've beaten the Lakers six straight times and they know they can win this game just by showing up.
The Clippers won't play again until Saturday. That's three straight days off, which is extremely rare this late in the season. So I see the Clippers being overconfident while also not being fully focused thinking ahead of how to spend their upcoming free time.
The Lakers are going to play hard here off Sunday night's embarrassment. This is what point guard Jeremy Lin said following that 28-point loss to the Clippers, "What happened tonight (Sunday) is definitely not a good feeling, so we want to make sure that doesn't happen again on Tuesday."
The Lakers are 11-3-1 (78%) ATS in their past 15 games following a loss. They have covered 63 percent during the past 20 times they've been an underdog.
Shooting guard Jamal Crawford is expected to play for the Clippers after missing the last 17 games with a calf injury. Crawford is an instant offensive player off the bench, but he figures to be rusty here. So his appearance would be a plus for the Lakers since he's a gunner and would take a lot of shots.
One of the keys to the Clippers blowing out the Lakers this past Sunday was they controlled point guard Jordan Clarkson holding him to two points and three assists in 26 minutes. Clarkson struggled versus the Clippers' pressure and seemed taken aback whenever Clippers' big men DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin jumped out to double team him.
Clarkson has had a strong rookie year. Look for him to handle the Clippers much better after studying film and knowing what he's going to be facing. He won't be taken by surprise the second time around. Clarkson is the key cog for the Lakers.
Keep in mind, too, that although the Clippers are the home team this is the Lakers' home-court, too.

First it should be pointed out this isn't a true home game for the Lakers since both teams play at Staples Center.
The Lakers have run out of gas. LA is full of inexperience and lacks talent aside from promising point guard Jordan Clarkson. They need an all-out effort to keep within point spread range.
The Clippers aren't going to allow that to happen. They love to bury the Lakers having won the last five meetings by an average of 27.8 points per game. They are 2-0 versus the Lakers this season with a winning margin of 16 points per game.
The Clippers have their offense rolling with Chris Paul, J.J. Redick and Blake Griffin all playing at high levels. They are averaging 113.7 points in their last nine games. The Lakers can't stop them defensively ranking 28th in points allowed per game and defensive field goal percentage.
The Lakers are 0-2 this month. Both of their defeats were bad losses at home - by 21 points to the Pelicans and by 30 points to the Trail Blazers this past Friday.
The Lakers actually don't want to win. That's because they hold the fourth-worst record in the NBA. If they do not finish with one of the five worst records they would lose their top pick this year to the 76ers because it's not top-five protected.

A lot has changed since Duke defeated Michigan State by 10 points back on Nov. 18 in the Champions Classic.
But two major things haven't changed. Tom Izzo still can't beat Duke. The Spartans are 1-8 versus the Blue Devils under Izzo and Michigan State still has no answer for big man Jahil Okafor.
Both teams are playing strong defense. The Spartans, though, can't match up to Duke's top-end talent.
Okafor destroyed the Spartans in the first meeting. The Spartans can't get around that. If they double-team Okafor, the Blue Devils have the excellent perimeter game to take advantage especially from 3-point range.
The Spartans have overachieved to get this far. Duke is a legitimate top three team with perhaps the second-best talent in the country next to Kentucky. The Blue Devils have the big man, pedigree and coaching to get it done again with a convincing victory. They are 18-7-1 (72%) ATS the past 26 times when facing opponents with a winning percentage above .600. 

All the attention and focus for this matchup is on New Orleans. The Pelicans have won three in a row and are battling hard with Oklahoma City for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.
The Pelicans have blown out their last three opponents, including the Kings last Friday at home, 102-88. Not much is being said about the Kings because they are a lottery team and have lost three in a row. The Kings also will be missing Rudy Gay, their only other star besides DeMarcus Cousins.
But there are some beneath the radar factors that point to Sacramento as being the right side here.
The Kings' last two road defeats were to the Grizzlies and Rockets. Certainly no shame in losing to those Western Conference powers. Those two teams are especially strong playing at home. The Kings played the Rockets extremely tough despite not having Gay, losing 115-111, two nights ago. Sacramento leads the NBA in free throw attempts, but shot nine fewer free throws than the Rockets did.
Sacramento has won its last four home games. The Kings fit the standard category of being much stronger at home than on the road. They have recent revenge, too, having gotten blown out at New Orleans just seven days ago. Even with that loss, the Kings still have defeated New Orleans in four of the last six meetings. The Pelicans have a bad history in Sacramento going 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 visits.
This is the Kings' first home game since March 24. More evidence than a strong effort should be forthcoming.
The Pelicans, by contrast, are in a flat spot. They just buried the Kings a week ago and then they buried the hapless Lakers in their last game this past Wednesday. Following this matchup, the Pelicans are at the Trail Blazers on Saturday. That's followed by a home contest for them against the Warriors and a road game versus the Grizzlies on Wednesday. Those are all far more challenging games and the Pelicans, a youthful bunch lacking veteran savvy, can't help but be looking ahead.
Anthony Davis is a monster. But so is Cousins. This is the rare time where Davis can have his points and outstanding all-around play matched by a fellow big man.

The Bulls are in the hunt for the No. 2 playoff seed in the East. The Bucks are trying to hold on for a playoff spot. Not only is there a major class difference between these two teams, but the Bulls are in much better current form.
Aided by the recent return of Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson, Chicago has won and covered five of its last six. The Bulls are averaging 104.5 points during their last six games while giving up an average of 92.3 points a game during this span.
Milwaukee has dropped eight of its last 10. That mark would be 1-9 if not for Khris Middleton long 3-pointer at the buzzer to nip Miami by one point at home during this time frame. The Bucks are giving up nearly 104 points during their last seven games. They don't have the offense to make up for a defense that has sprung leaks.
Chicago has been idle since Saturday. So the Bulls should be rested and well prepared. The Bulls have dominated the Bucks in Milwaukee winning the past nine times there.
The Bulls are 3-0 against the Bucks this season winning by an average margin of 8.3 points.  

First off, this isn't a fade on San Antonio. The Spurs are making their move playing their best basketball with Kawhi Leonard healthy and Tony Parker at long last stepping up his game.
My handicap is entirely based on the Grizzlies meeting this challenge, getting what I see as an overly generous amount of points.
Memphis has gotten blown out in its last two games by the Warriors and Cavaliers. I rank those as the two best teams in the NBA right now. The Grizzlies aren't in that highest of tiers. But they are an elite team and at the very next level with San Antonio.
The Grizzlies have surrendered 111 and 107 points during those losses to Golden State and Cleveland. They still rank No. 2 in scoring defense. Memphis hasn't allowed three consecutive triple-digit games in regulation all season. This is a stop-the-pain game for them with their pride on the line.
Memphis has proven itself before versus upper tier opponents going 7-2-1 ATS the past 10 times facing foes with a winning percentage above .600. The Grizzlies hold the No. 2 seed in the West, but just by one-half game over Houston. The urgency factor for Memphis can't be underestimated.  
The Grizzlies host Sacramento, which has lost 11 of its last 14 road games, on Monday. That should be a Memphis victory. The Grizzlies then won't play again until Friday. This is the game they need for their self-respect. Their defense and an inflated point spread put me on them in this spot.

The Nuggets are a much improved team since Melvin Hunt replaced clueless Brian Shaw. Denver is 8-6 under Hunt and can prove dangerous in the right spot.
This is a good spot for the Nuggets.
Both Denver and Portland are off excellent victories last night. But the Trail Blazers carry a much higher fatigue rating. This marks their fourth game in five days and first home game following consecutive road wins against the Jazz and Suns.
Portland has a weak bench - made weaker by the absence of Wesley Matthews - and plays again on Monday at home against Phoenix while the Nuggets won't play again until Wednesday. That should ensure an all-out effort by the Nuggets.
Yes, motivation can be a factor for non-playoff teams such as Denver, but the Nuggets have triple revenge incentive. They are a much different team now than the previous three times the Trail Blazers played and defeated them.
Ty Lawson must play well for the Nuggets to be competitive. There are strong indications that is going to happen. Lawson has been performing well putting up 18 points and nine assists in an easy victory against the Jazz Friday night. This is what Hunt said about Lawson following that win, "The kid is playing some of the best basketball I've seen him play. That speed is special. It's a special weapon."
Lawson may be the quickest point guard in the NBA. He's caused Portland problems in the past averaging 24.7 points and nine assists in the first three meetings. Portland has an excellent point guard, too, in Damian Lillard. But Lillard has logged major minutes this season and the four games in five days factor could affect him a great deal against Lawson.
Under Hunt, the Nuggets have gone 7-1 ATS the past eight times following a straight-up victory. They also have covered in five of their last seven road matchups.

I can't see San Antonio losing for the second time in three nights to Dallas.
The big question is can the Spurs cover this high number? I believe they can based on how well they've been playing - especially at home - and given Dallas' current road woes.
The Mavericks are 1-5 in their last six road contests with the lone victory coming against the Lakers, who have the fourth-worst record in the NBA. During this span, four of Dallas' road losses have come by 15 or more points.
Dallas has failed to cover in its last six road matchups and last won at San Antonio during the regular season in 2010, a span of eight consecutive defeats. The Mavericks are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games versus foes with a winning home mark.
Kawhi Leonard is healthy and Tony Parker finally is playing better. Those factors have helped turn the Spurs back into being an elite force. They are 9-1 in their last 10 home games, 7-3 ATS, with the only loss coming to the red-hot Cavaliers when Kyrie Irving went off for 57 points.
The Spurs followed up their loss to the Mavericks this past Tuesday night with a smashing 130-91 victory over Oklahoma City two nights ago. Gregg Popovich is stepping on the gas. I don't see the Spurs regressing here.   

I had North Carolina State upsetting Villanova as the Wolfpack were my sleeper team to reach the Final Four - and I'm not getting off them now against a bogus Louisville team whose backcourt is way inferior to North Carolina State's minus Chris Jones.
The Wolfpack showed they were capable of big things if getting on a roll owning victories against Duke and North Carolina.
North Carolina State has a very strong backcourt - much better than Louisville's - with excellent guards and its frontcourt players are stepping up. This is the winning formula for the Wolfpack as the Cardinals can't match NCS's guard play.
I'm not impressed with the Cardinals. I believe the wrong team is favored. Yes, Louisville stepped up to beat Northern Iowa, 66-53, this past Sunday. But this is not one of Rick Pitino's stronger Cardinal teams. Northern Iowa doesn't have NC State's athleticism. Neither does Cal Irvine of the Big West Conference. Those were the two teams Louisville beat to advance this far in the NCAA Tournament.
North Carolina State has a dynamic, deep backcourt and athletic frontcourt players, the kind that cause problems for the Cardinals.  
Freshman Quentin Snider is replacing the suspended senior Jones. He's played well in the tournament - so far. I think Jones' absence, though, will be particularly noticed in this matchup.
The teams met on Feb. 14 in Louisville - and North Carolina State won, 74-65. The Wolfpack held the Cardinals to less than 30 percent shooting from the floor. That's not a fluke as the Cardinals are not a good shooting team especially from 3-point range where they ranked 312th.

Expect the Heat to play hard in order to make amends for blowing a 16-point fourth-quarter lead last night on the road against the Bucks in an 89-88 loss. Milwaukee pulled out the victory on a 3-pointer by Khris Middleton at the buzzer.
Miami is 4-1-2 ATS the past seven times when playing without rest. This is a crucial game for the Heat especially following that loss to Milwaukee as the Heat, Bucks and Celtics are all fighting for a playoff spot.
The Heat are 0-2 on their current four-game road trip having lost to Oklahoma City, which plays extremely well at home, this past Sunday. Before these past two games, though, the Heat had been playing well having won three in a row defeating the Cavaliers, Trail Blazers and Nuggets.
Miami may not have center Hassan Whiteside, who suffered a cut between two fingers against the Bucks and had to have 10 stiches. If he is able to play it would be a nice plus. But I like the Heat covering this number even if Whiteside doesn't play. Boston has a small front line without Jared Sullinger. The Heat wouldn't have problems matching up to the Celtics in the paint with Udonis Haslem, Michael Beasley and Luol Deng.  
Dwayne Wade will be the best player on the court and he's been playing well.
The Celtics are expected to get back point guard Isaiah Thomas, who has missed the past eight games because of a bad back. Boston went 5-3 in those games. Thomas is a streak shooter who figures to be rusty. He's also a ball hog so it's going to take time for the Celtics to get back in sync with him running things instead of Evan Turner.

Murray State won the CIT Tournament last year and has its sights set on winning the NIT this year. The Racers are tournament tested having lost only one player from last season. The Racers have covered seven of the last nine times on the road going against a foe with a winning home mark.
Old Dominion is overrated. The Monarchs are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times going against an opponent with a winning mark. Their star point guard, Trey Freeman, is limping on a sprained ankle. Even if Freeman were 100 percent, the Monarchs would be hard-pressed to match up against Murray State's strong backcourt.
Against four common opponents - Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee State, Illinois State and UTEP -  Old Dominion went 2-5 while Murray State went 4-0 winning each game by double-digits.
Old Dominion is strong defensively, but Murray State can score on any team. The Racers put up 83 in their last game upsetting a top-40 defensive team, Tulsa, on the road.

Oklahoma City has lost much of its star power and depth. That's not a good combination when laying a big number especially with a huge game on deck tomorrow night.
But that's the situation the Thunder are in minus Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, Nick Collison and now guard Andre Roberson, who suffered an ankle injury on Sunday and will be out several weeks.
The Thunder are playing well having won three in a row, including impressively beating hot Miami at home this past Sunday. This, though, is a flat spot for them especially when they play at San Antonio on Wednesday in a much more challenging matchup.
The Lakers have lost nine of their last 11, but are off a 101-87 home victory against the 76ers this past Sunday. Quietly, the Lakers have been a huge money-maker this month cashing 11 of their last 14, including their last five road games. They have not lost by more than seven points during their last 14 games.

Richmond is playing its best basketball winning eight of its last nine games. The Spiders are 7-1-1 ATS during this span. They have won a school-record 16 home games this season.

Miami has the disadvantage of not only being on the road but facing an unorthodox opponent on short preparation time having played this past Saturday. Richmond has a unique style with a matchup-zone defense and Princeton offense with lots of motion and backdoor cuts.

The Hurricanes rely on their 3-point shooting. However, point guard Angel Rodriguez missed practice on Monday and isn't likely to play due to an injured wrist. Richmond ranks 29th in the country in 3-point defensive percentage.

The Spiders also are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a point spread cover.

Illinois State solidly beat Old Dominion this season. The Missouri Valley Conference, which Illinois State is a member of, was strong this season. Old Dominion could be without its best player.
Yet, the Monarchs are favored. What gives? Old Dominion is playing at home. That's what. The Monarchs own a 22-game home win streak at "The Ted," including going 18-0 this season.
Still, Old Dominion shouldn't rate favorite status in this matchup. Illinois State has a winning road record. One of the Redbirds' road victories occurred against NCAA Tournament entrant Alabama-Birmingham, which defeated Old Dominion in a Conference USA game. A sell out isn't expected. The Monarchs averaged 7,132 fans during the regular season. They had around 4,700 fans for their first round NIT game and as of Saturday afternoon had only sold around 2,500 tickets for this game. NIT games don't excite the home faithful like NCAA Tournament games do.
The Redbirds have covered in six of their last seven nonconference matchups. Old Dominion is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games versus foes with a winning record.
Old Dominion suffered its worst defeat of the season - and lowest point production - in a 64-45 loss to Illinois State in the Paradise Jam on Nov. 23. The Monarchs never could figure out Illinois State's mixed zone defenses. They also were outrebounded by 11 boards. The Monarchs rank 241st in 3-point shooting and 245th in free throw percentage. The Redbirds hold foes to an average of 62.4 points per game.
The Monarch's also may be missing their best player, junior point guard Trey Freeman. He leads the team in scoring and assists. Freeman, a first team All-Conference USA selection, sprained his ankle in practice this past Saturday and is questionable to play. If he does play he's unlikely to be 100 percent.

  

This is not one of Tom Izzo's stronger Michigan State teams. The Spartans have flaws - lacking stars and poor free throw shooting to name two. They are going up against the top defensive team in the country.
Virginia is just as disciplined as Michigan State with a similar grind-it-out offense. The Cavaliers are plain better up and down the rotation especially with their best all-around player, Justin Anderson, having his timing and sea legs back since returning from a broken finger.
Virginia won the always tough Atlantic Coast Conference. Its only defeats were to Duke, Louisville and North Carolina in the ACC Tournament.
Virginia has secretly been hoping for this matchup. The Cavaliers want to revenge last year's 61-59 loss to Michigan State in a Sweet 16 matchup.
The Spartans lack the offensive firepower and go-to guy to successfully score on Virginia's dominant defense that gave up just 51. 2 points per game. The Cavaliers' fierce defense gets all the media attention, but they also ranked 25th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency.

The Bulls have been up and down. Now they are on an up cycle. They've won two in a row beating the Pacers and Raptors at home. Taj Gibson returned in last night's 16-point victory against the Raptors after missing the past 10 games with an elbow injury. All-Star guard Jimmy Butler could return tonight.
Chicago is trying to earn the No. 2 seed in the East. The Bulls can't afford to slip against the lowly Pistons, losers of 11 of their last 12. Chicago is 20-14 on the road. Detroit is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 home games versus opponents with a winning road mark.
The Bulls are not a great team. But they are still several tiers above Detroit even without Butler. Chicago is 9-6 minus Butler. The Bulls look much better when not going against elite Western Conference opponents. The Pistons are definitely a team they can handle.
The Pistons are a dead team. They lost 94-83 in their last game to the 76ers this past Wednesday. The Pistons are one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA and are far less effective inside with Greg Monroe out. Detroit was outscored 40-20 in the paint by the 76ers. Monroe missed that game with a strained knee and is doubtful to play against the Bulls.

Dayton can't match Providence's height, nor the talent level of the Friars' two major stars - Kris Dunn and LaDontae Henton.
Dunn is a great all-around guard, who also was the co-Big East Defensive Player of the Year. Henton led the Big East in scoring and was seventh in rebounding.
Dayton ranked 300th in the country in rebounding. The Flyers, who are 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference matchups, don't have a player taller than 6-foot-6 in their rotation. Providence, by contrast, has four players who are 6-8 or taller, including two 7-footers. This number doesn't even include Henton, who is 6-6.
Dayton needed home-court advantage to reach this level nipping Boise State, a team from what was a weak Mountain West Conference this year, by one point this past Wednesday. The Flyers came from nine points down to accomplish the feat. I doubt the Flyers would have defeated Boise State if they weren't on their home floor.
Providence has covered the last nine times it has played on a neutral floor. The Friars are the better team and catch Dayton, which doesn't have a strong bench, playing for the fifth time in eight days.

Gardner-Webb is well-coached and battled-tested. The Runnin' Bulldogs defeated Purdue on the road and defeated Clemson at a neutral site. They have covered in 11 of their last 16 road games. They also are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 non-league games.
Colorado is going to have to go through an adjustment to deal with Gardner-Webb's up-tempo pace. The Bulldogs love to fire up 3-pointers averaging more than 23 per game. They make 8.1 per game. Colorado is 5-8 when its opponent connects on at least eight 3-pointers.
The Bulldogs will be minus Jerome Hill, their leading scorer and rebounder. Hill had not been shooting well, though, going just 8-for-32 from the field during the last two games.
Colorado isn't motivated for this game playing in the College Basketball Invitational, a third tier tournament. The Buffaloes have a short rotation made shorter by their leading scorer, senior guard Askia Booker, skipping the tournament because he didn't deem it worth his time. That's great for team morale.
The Buffaloes are down to seven normal rotation players because sophomore forward Dustin Thomas, who was averaging nearly 17 minutes per game, won't play either because he is transferring to another school.
Booker's loss is huge as he ran the team. Only three players in the country had a higher percentage of shots their team was involved in than Booker. He accounted for 35.9 percent of the shots Colorado took. 
 

Orlando is a lottery team that has lost eight of its last 10.
But the Magic excel in situations exactly like this, partly because the marketplace usually doesn't care for them.
Orlando has covered 17 of the past 22 times versus foes with a winning home mark. The Magic is 6-1 ATS the past seven times they've been double-digit road 'dogs.
Houston is a bit fat after an impressive road upset win against the Clippers two days ago. The Rockets have more challenging tasks following this matchup hosting improved Denver and playoff-contender Phoenix. There is no reason for the Rockets to go all out against a non-conference lottery foe.
Orlando is vulnerable from 3-point range, which is Houston's strength. However, the Rockets are in a long range shooting slump making just 27.5 percent from beyond the arc during their last five games compared to hitting nearly 35 percent before then.
The Magic have improved a great deal defensively once they got rid of Jacque Vaughn. They are off an embarrassing 123-108 loss to the Cavaliers this past Sunday. This is what Magic coach James Borrego said following that loss to Cleveland. "Tonight (Sunday) was not a great defensive effort. It was probably due to Cleveland and partly our effort, our execution defensively. But we are a defensive team, and I'll continue to say that. Our identity is on the defensive end."
Statistics back up what Borrego says. Even giving up 123 points to the Cavaliers, Orlando still is surrendering nearly three fewer points per game at 99.5 since Borrego replaced Vaughn, while forcing nearly three more turnovers per game, too.
The Rockets historically have trouble with Orlando, too. The Magic have covered nine of the past 10 in the series, including the last four in Houston. The Rockets also may be without starting point guard Patrick Beverley, who is dealing with an elbow injury.

The Lakers actually have been playing excellent defense during their last six games holding foes to an average of 91.6 points per game during this span.
LA isn't winning, but is staying close and covering spreads. The Lakers have not lost by double digits during their past 12 games and are 7-0 ATS following a straight-up loss. They also have covered in their last four road games.
The Lakers are going with a lot of youngsters. So they are one of the few teams with fresh legs at this late stage of the season. Stronger foes also are resting key players, or at least reducing their minutes when they play the Lakers.
Golden State has one of its bigger games of the season on deck when it hosts Atlanta on Wednesday. It's a revenge spot for the Warriors and a pivotal matchup in deciding the NBA's best record. So I'm not expecting big minutes from their starters, or an all-out intense effort. At the very least, the back-door should be wide open.
The Warriors have had trouble gearing up for lottery teams failing to cover eight of the past nine times versus below .500 opponents. Golden State plays five games during the next eight days. So this figures to be a spot where the Warriors will be reducing starter's minutes.

UC Irvine is ready to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time. The Anteaters won the Big West last season by fell in the semifinals of the conference tournament. Lesson learned. They are primed and ready this time. They also draw Hawaii, fresh off an upset of regular-season champion UC Davis.
Hawaii doesn't have enough time to come down after that surprising win. It's also the first time Hawaii has reached a title game since 2002. The Warriors aren't ready to post back-to-back upsets. They are 3-9 in conference tournament games going back to 2005 and 1-4 ATS the past five times they've played foes with a winning record.
The Anteaters are 10-2 ATS the past 12 times they've met a foe with a winning record. They also are 2-0 versus Hawaii this season winning 75-60 at home and 78-72 on the road.

The Pistons were blown out last night by the Trail Blazers losing by 19 points. Detroit is 6-0 ATS following a loss of more than 10 points and 10-3 ATS the next game when they didn't cover the spread during their previous game.
Detroit can match up to the Jazz's tall front line with Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe, both of whom are having solid seasons. Drummond has pulled down 20 or more rebounds in three of the last five games. The Pistons would catch a major break if Utah center Rudy Gobert, who is having a breakout season, can't play after tweaking his ankle during the Jazz's last game this past Thursday.
The line is high here because Utah is playing its finest ball winning nine of its last 11. Detroit has lost nine in a row to fall out of playoff contention.  This is the Pistons' final game of their road swing. I see a bounce back effort after last night's embarrassing defeat. 
This is the fourth time in their last 10 games the Jazz are laying more than seven points. They are 0-3 ATS the previous three times. Utah is 26th in scoring. The Jazz lack the offense to lay a big number.  
The Pistons can stay with the Jazz. In their last eight road games, the Pistons have only lost by more than seven points twice. During this span, the Pistons beat the Hornets by 28 points, lost by three to the Pelicans, lost by five to the Pacers, lost by four to the Wizards and lost by seven to the Warriors.

The Hawks have little to play for these days with the best record in the Eastern Conference all but clinched. That's been evident when the Hawks rested starters in a loss to the 76ers this past Saturday and during a 115-102 blowout loss two nights ago to the lowly Nuggets.
When the Hawks want to play, though, they are an elite team. That was the case a week ago when the beat the surging Cavaliers by nine points.
I see the Hawks wanting to get back on track after that embarrassing defeat to the Nuggets. Atlanta is 8-1 ATS the past nine times following a defeat and has covered 73 percent of its last 27 road games.
Since Feb. 28, the Suns have played three opponents with winning record. In those games they lost by 25 to the Spurs, by 10 to the Cavaliers and by 18 to the Warriors. The losses to the Spurs and Warriors came at home where the Suns have dropped four of six.
Phoenix also might be missing Brandon Knight again. He's dealing with a sprained ankle that caused him to sit out Phoenix's last game this past Wednesday, a victory against the Timberwolves.
The Suns lack the size to hurt Atlanta inside and they give up the second-highest 3-point shooting percentage when playing at home at 38.5 percent. Sparked by sharp-shooter Kyle Korver, the Hawks own the second-best 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA at 38.5 percent.

 

Seattle was 2-0 versus Chicago State during the regular season winning 57-31 at home and 75-67 on the road. This matchup is in Las Vegas.
Seattle tied for being the top defense in the Western Athletic Conference, while the Cougars are one of the worst offensive teams in the nation averaging 58.4 points per game while shooting less than 38 percent from the floor. They also are not a good free throw shooting team either.
The Redhawks' strength is their backcourt where Isiah Umipig averages 16.7 points per game and Jarell Flora averages 14.2. Both average more than Chicago State's leading scorer. The Cougars, in fact, have only one player averaging more than nine points a game.
I can't see offensively-challenged Chicago State staying without double digits of Seattle.

Oregon State was a nice story during the first half of the season. But the Beavers are shot now down to seven scholarship players and losing while failing to cover in six of their last seven games.
The Beavers don't have the size and bench to beat Colorado. They have been outrebounded in 13 consecutive games. The Beavers also haven't shown they can win away outside of Corvallis dropping 11 of their past 13 away games.
Colorado is coming on as Josh Scott, hurt earlier, is playing well. Sparked by Scott, the Buffaloes have averaged 51.3 percent from the floor during the last three games.
This is clearly a case of two schools heading in opposite directions.

Valparaiso is the class of the Horizon League. The Crusaders match up well against Green Bay and get to play at home in this Horizon League Tournament game.
The Crusaders set a single season school record for wins with 27 this season. Valparaiso has better offensive and defensive numbers than the Phoenix and are 14-1 at Athletics-Recreation Center, including winning all eight of its conference games there.
Green Bay, by contrast, is 0-5 during the past four season playing at Athletics-Recreation Center, including losing 63-59 there on Feb. 13.
The Phoenix are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Valpo is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games versus foes with a winning road mark.  
Green Bay needs to score inside to be effective. The Phoenix are going to have problems getting points in the paint, though. The Crusaders have size and athleticism. One of those athletes is 6-foot-10 center Vashil Fernandez, who averages nearly three blocks a game.

The record shows New Orleans and Milwaukee each having 29 losses. But know this: New Orleans is better than Milwaukee. And the Bucks playing at home doesn't change that.
The Pelicans are 7-2 in their last nine games. Every game is a must win spot for them as they battle to grab the final playoff position in the much superior Western Conference.
New Orleans is coming off a win against Memphis this past Friday. That was Anthony Davis' third game back from a shoulder injury. He's averaging 30.3 points and 12.3 rebounds since returning. He's a legitimate MVP candidate. Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans are playing at high levels, too.
Trading for point guard Norris Cole to help fill the void of injured point guard Jrue Holiday was a shrewd move by the Pelicans. Cole is a nice complementary player and knows how to win having collected a couple of rings when he was with the Heat.  
The Pelicans have covered seven of the last eight times on the road when going against a foe with a winning home record.
The Bucks were maybe the biggest surprise team of the first half. But opposing teams have caught up to them and the Bucks have gotten worse after trading point guard Brandon Knight and getting turnover-prone, poor shooting Michael Carter-Williams in return.
Since that deal, the Bucks have gone 3-6. Their only victories during this span were against the Nuggets, 76ers and Wizards. This was before Denver made its much needed coaching change and had lost 13 of its past 15. The 76ers are tied for the second-fewest wins in the league. The Wizards are 4-13 in their last 17 games and were without Bradley Beal. The Bucks needed a career-game from Kris Middleton to get past Washington. 
Before swapping point guards, the Bucks had won eight of nine. The young and inexperienced Bucks haven't fully adjusted to Carter-Williams and have lost some of their chemistry and confidence. The Bucks have turned into an undisciplined, out-of-control team playing not to lose instead of being loose.
The Bucks now step up in class to face a legitimate Western Conference playoff contender that is playing well. Milwaukee is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games versus Western Conference opponents.
The Pelicans have a good track record versus Milwaukee winning 14 of the last 16 in the series, including going 6-2 the past eight times in Milwaukee.