| All Sports Archive | |||||||
| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
| 11-29-20 | Browns -7 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-25 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
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The Browns don't have to do much here versus such an undermanned opponent. Baker Mayfield can just hand the ball off to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, while easily picking his spots against a dead Jacksonville team that is staggering with injuries. Jacksonville gives up the second-most yards per game in the NFL and yields nearly 30 points per contest. If not for a fluke victory against the Colts at home opening week, in which they were totally outplayed statistically, the Jaguars would be winless and ranking among the worst teams of all time. They haven't won since Week 1 with six of their defeats occurring by at least eight points. And now the Jaguars have to deal with their longest injury list. Jacksonville had one decent pass rusher, Josh Allen. He's out. The Jaguars have a cluster injury problem in the secondary down their three top cornerbacks. On offense, the Jaguars will be minus their top wide receiver, D.J. Chark, plus their best lineman, guard Andrew Norwell. Jake Luton proved to be as terrible as expected. So now the Jaguars turn to their third-string QB journeyman stiff Mike Glennon. Cleveland doesn't need Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward to take advantage of Glennon's lack of downfield throwing skills and no mobility.
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| 11-27-20 | Notre Dame -4.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 48 h 48 m | Show |
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The Irish can't afford to slip up here in their hopes of reaching the national title game. And they shouldn't because they are much too balanced for North Carolina. Both teams have outstanding offenses. But North Carolina is much more vulnerable on defense especially when stopping the run. The Tar Heels also come up with very few takeaways. Notre Dame ranks fourth against the run and are in the top 11 in total defense and scoring defense - and that's after playing Clemson. The Irish have scored 40 or more points in five of their eight games, while holding foes under 14 points five times. The Tar Heels can't match that. I don't see Sam Howell being so effective when the Irish take away North Carolina's ground attack. The Irish have covered the last six times they've been favored by a touchdown or less.
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| 11-26-20 | Utah State v. South Dakota State +2.5 | Top | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
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Utah State lost, 85-69, to Virginia Commonweath as a short favorite on Wednesday in its first round game in the Crosscover Classic in Sioux Falls, S.D. It was the fourth straight time the Aggies have failed to cover laying points. Utah State has a lot of inexperience this season. Aggies coach Craig Smith is using the early part of the season to experiment and get playing time for his inexperienced team of which nine members enter the season having never played a minute for the Aggies. So there is a huge unknown quality to Utah State. Not so with South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits have been one of the best spread teams in the country covering 20 of their last 26, including losing 79-71, to West Virginia as 11-point 'dogs in their first game of the tournament on Wednesday. The Jackrabbits were hanging tough trailing by four points during the second half, but could not get closer. They have covered six of the last eight times as a 'dog.
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| 11-25-20 | Eastern Illinois +19.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 67-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
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Wisconsin should be very good again this season returning nearly its entire rotation from its 21-10 team of last season. The Badgers, though, needed a late 15-0 run to beat Eastern Illinois, 65-52, last season. The Panthers had kept the game close trailing by just 46-43 with less than nine minutes remaining. Eastern Illinois went 17-15 last season and returns its top seven scorers, including Josiah Wallace. He was the fifth-leading scorer in the Ohio Valley Conference last season averaging 19.6 points. |
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| 11-22-20 | Chiefs -6.5 v. Raiders | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -100 | 88 h 31 m | Show |
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Patrick Mahomes alone is enough to be confident in the Chiefs beating the Raiders by more than a TD. Mahomes is firmly in the MVP discussion with a 25-to-1 TD-to-interception ratio. Mahomes has accounted for 15 touchdowns in five career games against the Raiders and their defensive coordinator, Paul Guenther. The Raiders are among the bottom-four in sacks, sack ratio and quarterback hit rate. So Mahomes is going to have time to operate. If you throw out a heavy wind game against the Browns, the Raiders have given up more than 30 points per game during their last six games. But, wait, there is more. The Chiefs have monster revenge. The Raiders dealt them their lone loss. Kansas City also is off its bye. No coach is better with an extra week during the regular season than Andy Reid, who is 18-3 in this role. The Chiefs' defense has been playing better allowing 17 or fewer points in three of their last four games. The Raiders were missing three starting offensive linemen in their last game and their defense is dealing with COVID protocols with seven players affected, including safety Jonathan Abram.
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| 11-21-20 | Florida International +7.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 21-38 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
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Florida International's 0-4 record is a bit deceiving and Western Kentucky can't score. The Hilltoppers are near the bottom in college football in points and yards per game. They are averaging 11.6 points in their last six games and haven't scored more than 24 points in a game all season. The Panthers nearly upset 21st-ranked Liberty, losing 36-34 on the road. They were impacted by COVID-19, but are coming out of that now. Western Kentucky hasn't won a game by more than 3 points all season. The Hilltoppers are 5-17-1 ATS the past 23 times when laying points and have covered just 20 percent of their past 11 games going 2-8-1 ATS. Florida International, on the other hand, has covered 12 of the last 17 times it has been a 'dog.
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| 11-20-20 | Syracuse +20 v. Louisville | Top | 0-30 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
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I'll take nearly 3 TD's against a Louisville team that is 2-6 and has lost six of its last seven games. The Cardinals are without their star running back Javian Hawkins, who opted out of the season, and could be minus their star wide receiver, Tutu Atwell, too. He's questionable due to injury. Syracuse isn't good either. But the Orange will be at full strength for the first time in a month. That will aid their rotation depth. They also are off a bye, which will help freshman QB JaCobian Morgan. Syracuse hung in against Boston College in its last game, losing 16-13 as 14 1/2-point 'dogs. Morgan was 19-of-30 for 188 yards and a TD in that game. If there's one thing Syracuse does well it is come up with takeaways forcing 17. That ranks second nationally. Louisville, by contrast, has committed 18 turnovers. Only three teams have lost the ball more.
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| 11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 40 h 27 m | Show |
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The Cardinals are riding high after pulling out a 32-30 home win against the Bills this past Sunday on a 43-yard TD pass from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins with two seconds left. The Seahawks are at low ebb having lost three of their past four games, including the last two. Now, though, is the time to buy low on Seattle and fade Arizona in this spot. The Cardinals have to travel on a short week still basking in their near-miracle victory against the Bills. Arizona exerted a ton of energy in that game coming back from a 23-9 deficit midway through the third quarter. Fans won't be permitted into the stadium, but Seattle still is in a highly favorable situation not having to lose a day of practice to travel and in short revenge. The Cardinals nipped the Seahawks, 37-34, in overtime on Oct. 25. The Cardinals tied the game on a 44-yard field goal as time expired to force the OT. Russell Wilson threw three interceptions yet the Seahawks still should have won that game outgaining Arizona and controlling the clock for nearly 10 more minutes than the Cardinals. Seattle didn't have superstar safety Jamal Adams, nor pass rusher Carlos Dunlap, in that game either. The Seahawks haven't lost three straight regular season games in nine years. They have covered 68 percent of their last 51 games following a loss. The Seahawks have a history of being very tough in nationally televised games with the best record in the NFL in primetime games since Carroll took over Seattle in 2010. |
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| 11-15-20 | Eagles -3 v. Giants | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -114 | 124 h 15 m | Show |
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The Eagles started to get healthier before their bye last week and now could have Miles Sanders and right tackle Lane Johnson joining left tackle Jason Peters, Dallas Goedert and Jalen Reagor, who all recently returned from injuries. Daniel Jones is 6-16 as a starter with 36 turnovers. It's not close between him and Carson Wentz, who threw 3 TD passes when the Eagles beat the Giants, 22-21, three weeks ago. That was the eighth straight time the Eagles have defeated the Giants. The short point spread does not accurately reflect how much superior the Eagles are to the Giants, whose only two victories have been against Washington.
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| 11-14-20 | Notre Dame v. Boston College +14 | Top | 45-31 | Push | 0 | 106 h 5 m | Show |
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This is the mother of all letdown spots for Notre Dame and I'm going to take advantage of it by grabbing two TD's with home underdog Boston College. The Irish are still celebrating Brian Kelly's first win against a top-five program with their 47-40 double overtime win against Clemson this past Saturday. Boston College is good enough to pull the outright upset. The Eagles lost by just six points on the road to Clemson. They have been a tremendous underdog going 19-7-1 ATS the past 27 times in that role, including covering the past five times at home. BC coach Jeff Hafley has improved the Eagles defense making it respectable, while Notre Dame transfer QB Phil Jurkovec has a big arm, is athletic and can run. The Eagles aren't lacking in skill position talent with Jurkovec, Zay Flowers, David Bailey and Hunter Long. Boston College is going to treat this game like a Holy War taking the matchup much more serious than Notre Dame.
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| 11-13-20 | Iowa v. Minnesota +3.5 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -103 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
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I trust Minnesota's offense. The Gophers have outstanding skill position talent with Mohamed Ibrahim, who leads the Big Ten in rushing, Rashod Bateman - who is in the argument for being the best wide receiver in the Big Ten - and QB Tanner Morgan. Minnesota has produced 85 points in its last two games, both on the road against Maryland and Illinois. Now the Gophers get Iowa at home in a major rivalry matchup with the Floyd of Rosedale Trophy at stake. Personally, I feel the loser of this game should own the hardware since it's a trophy of a pig. But these teams really care about owning the trophy. Iowa is coming off a 49-7 blowout of Michigan State. But I don't trust Iowa's offense the way I do Minnesota's. Michigan State is down this season. Minnesota's defense can handle Iowa QB Spencer Petras, who is completing just 54 percent and has a 2-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Petras isn't a running threat like other QB's Minnesota has faced and had trouble containing. He's also not an accurate enough passer to keep up with the Gophers' high-powered attack.
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| 11-12-20 | Colts +1 v. Titans | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
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If you're judging this matchup just by skill position talent it's no contest. The Titans easily have the three best players in this area with Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown. So why then is this game a pick'em given the Titans' skill position edge and being the home team on a short week? It's because the Colts own the far superior defense, have a better offensive line and have the advantage on special teams. These edges outweigh the Titans' skill position players and put me on the Colts. Tremendous credit goes to the Colts for building a defense that ranks No. 1 in total yards giving up 290 yards per game and the third-fewest points at 20 per game. Indy also ranks No. 3 in run defense. Henry hasn't faced the Colts since they upgraded an already good defensive line with DeForest Buckner. I also rate Darius Leonard as the best linebacker in the league. Tannehill is better than Philip Rivers, but he's not an elite quarterback and he won't be that effective with play-action if Henry isn't churning out yards. The Bears held the Titans to 4.1 yards per play last Sunday. The Colts' defense is rated higher and their offense is better than the Bears. Indy's run defense surrenders just 3.3 yards per carry. The Titans are without their best offensive lineman, injured left tackle Taylor Lewan. Guard Rodger Saffold might be Tennessee's second-best offensive lineman and he's questionable with a shoulder injury. The Colts' offense doesn't scare anyone with Philip Rivers in his NFL dotage. But Indy has produced points when going against non-elite defense such as the Titans averaging 34 points against the Lions, Bengals, Jets and Vikings. Rivers is playing better, producing two of his three highest passer ratings during the past three games with six TD passes during this span. T.Y. Hilton, the Colts' top wide receiver, is expected to play. The Titans rank 25th defensively giving up more than 100 yards per game than Indianapolis. Tennessee allows opponents to convert on 55.4 percent of their third downs, which is the worst figure in the NFL. That mark was even higher, but the Titans held the woeful Bears offense to 2-of-15 on third down. Then there's the kicking game. It favors Indy. Colts rookie Rodrigo Blankenship has come through making 17 of 19 field goals. By contrast, Titans place-kicker Stephen Gostkowski has the worst mark in the league for field goal accuracy making just 11 of 18. Field position always is important and the Titans won't have their All-Pro punter Brett Kern. He missed his first game since 2009 last week with a wrist injury, ending a string of 180 straight games. Kern has the seventh-highest punting average in the league. Kern also is the Titans' holder on extra points and field goals. Ryan Allen replaced Kern against the Bears and did an excellent job punting. But can he do it again? He's not a sure, reliable entity like Kern.
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| 11-11-20 | Toledo +3 v. Western Michigan | Top | 38-41 | Push | 0 | 17 h 21 m | Show |
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Both Toledo and Western Michigan looked great in its opening-week Mid-American Conference victories last week. But I'm not putting much stock into those wins because they were layups against horrible opponents, Bowling Green for Toledo and Akron for Western Michigan. What I am putting stock in is Toledo's recent history against Western Michigan, the Broncos holding less of a home field advantage than perceived and Rockets' redemption from last year's disappointing season. The Rockets finished 6-6 last season, their worst mark since 2009. They weren't invited to a bowl game. I'm expecting that to change this season. The Rockets have a healthy QB in Eli Peters and a pair of quality senior running backs, Bryant Koback and Shakif Seymour. Toledo has experience in the defensive line and secondary. I like the Rockets' talent on both sides of the ball. Western Michigan had to replace its starting QB and also lost MAC Offensive Player of the Year running back LeVante Bellamy. The Broncos haven't been able to beat the Rockets since PJ Fleck left for Minnesota. Toledo has won the last three in the series, including 27-point victories each of the last two years. Western Michigan is tough at Waldo Stadium, but no public attendance is allowed for the game. The Broncos were fortunate to play many weak teams at home last season. That's not the case here. |
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| 11-10-20 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -9.5 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
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I believe Buffalo is the best team in the MId-American Conference and the Bulls did nothing to dispel that notion rolling past Northern Illinois, 49-30, during the MAC's opening week. The Bulls are very well-coached under Lance Leipold. They've been hot since the middle of last season covering eight of their last nine games. They also have covered 77 percent of their past 22 home games. Miami of Ohio has high expectations, too. But the Redhawks were fortunate to get past Ball State, 38-31, at home last week scoring the game-winning TD with 10 seconds left following a Ball State turnover. The Redhawks could be without their starting QB, Brett Gabbert. He's questionable after suffering a head injury against Ball State. Sophomore AJ Mayer replaced Gabbert and played well. However, Mayer, who did not throw a pass last year, would be on the road and meeting a far stronger defense. The Bulls also have film on him now. I don't see MIami of Ohio slowing down the Bulls' strong ground attack, nor being able to put up enough points to stay within double-digits. |
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| 11-09-20 | Patriots v. Jets +10 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
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At double-digits, I'm involved with the Jets. And, yes, my hand is firmly holding my nose. The handicap is completely anti-New England rather than pro Jets in any way although the Jets certainly won't lack motivation. This is the rare national stage for them. They are home, hate the Patriots and do not want to become the first Jets team in team history to open 0-9. The line has been adjusted upward because Joe Flacco is going to start instead of Sam Darnold. Flacco has been washed up for years. But he's a veteran and Darnold hasn't played well. So there's really not that much of a difference. Darnold has been spooked by the Patriots and Bill Belichick so I would have had little confidence in him. Stephon Gilmore, the Patriots' best defensive back, is out with a knee injury. Forget the past two decades. New England is terrible. The Patriots have worse skill position talent than even the Jets. New England ranks 29th in scoring and 30th in total yards. The Patriots are averaging 12.2 points in their last four games. They could have kicking problems, too, as Nick Fok is questionable with a back injury. If Folk can't kick, rookie Justin Rohrwasser would be promoted from the practice squad. The Patriots' puny offense certainly can't withstand any missed field goals. The Patriots shouldn't be laying double-digits to any team - even to the Jets.
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| 11-06-20 | San Jose State v. San Diego State -9 | Top | 28-17 | Loss | -106 | 42 h 47 m | Show |
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I like the job Brent Brennan has done and is doing at San Jose State. The Spartans aren't a joke anymore. But they aren't good enough to stay within double-digits on the road against San Diego State. This is the 2-0 Spartans' first road game. They face the premier defense in the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State also is 2-0 beating UNLV and Utah State by a combined margin of 72-13. The Aztecs held those two foes to a combined 6.5 points and 200 total yards of offense. I don't see San Jose State QB Nick Starkel - who is the Ryan Fitzpatrick of college football with his journeyman background - getting the better of the Aztecs defense. Starkel has played at Arkansas, Texas A&M and Texas. The Spartans can't match the Aztecs on defense. The Aztecs have an excellent running back, Greg Bell, and a balanced offense. |
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| 11-05-20 | Packers -7 v. 49ers | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
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The combination of injuries and COVID have destroyed the 49ers for much of the season. This situation is at its worst for the 49ers in this Thursday game. Not only do the 49ers have a cluster injury problem in their defensive line and injuries in their secondary, but their offense is now devastated, too. San Francisco has to play this game minus starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo, star tight end George Kittle, left tackle Trent Williams plus be without its top running back, Raheem Mostert, and its three top wide receivers! Talk about a depleted roster. Green Bay is likely down its three best running backs as Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon are out and I don't expect Aaron Jones to play either. But Aaron Rodgers can overcome this because the Packers have a diverse offense with many short passing options. The Packers are averaging 31.3 points, third-best in the NFL. 49ers QB Nick Mullens operating an offense devoid of weapons will not be able to match Rodgers. |
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| 11-04-20 | Buffalo -10 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 49-30 | Win | 100 | 56 h 45 m | Show |
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Buffalo is favored to capture the Mid-American Conference, which kicks off their abbreviated season Wednesday. The Bulls' opponent is Northern Illinois, which was picked last in both the MAC Coaches Poll and Media Poll. Closely examining this matchup, it's apparent oddsmakers opened this line too short. Buffalo hasn't lost in more than a year. The Bulls' 2019 season culminated with a 31-9 blowout victory against Charlotte in the Bahamas Bowl. The Bulls held five of their last six foes to three touchdowns or fewer. The Bulls held opponents to less than three yards per run last season. Northern Illinois lacks an explosive offense and has a weak defense. The Huskies are extremely young, too, with 67 percent of their roster being freshmen. Buffalo has multiple good running backs and a strong offensive line. The Bears have the experience and talent gap to easily cover this margin.
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| 11-01-20 | Vikings v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -112 | 150 h 60 m | Show |
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The Packers crushed the Vikings, 43-34, on the road opening week. The game wasn't nearly as close as the final score. The Packers led 29-10 in the fourth quarter and went on cruise control. Green Bay had 522 total yards and owned the ball 41:16-18:44. The Vikings couldn't stop Aaron Rodgers and Davonte Adams. Nothing has changed from that except the Packers have proven they are indeed for real while the Vikings have gone into rebuild mode with a 1-5 record. Minnesota signaled its intentions to begin a rebuild by recently trading stud defensive lineman Yannick Ngakoue knowing Dannielle Hunter was not going to return this season. Rodgers can attack a youthful Vikings secondary that ranks among the bottom-four while having a clean pocket. Green Bay has the fewest turnovers in the league with only two. Kirk Cousins, on the other hand, is on pace to throw 27 interceptions. The Packers are 8-0 in NFC North Division games under Matt LaFleur. The line has dropped due to Green Bay injuries. But left tackle David Bakhitari is expected to play and the Packers have a deep roster with one of the best backup RB's in Jamaal Williams. |
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| 10-30-20 | Minnesota -19 v. Maryland | Top | 44-45 | Loss | -112 | 58 h 53 m | Show |
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So much for any Maryland improvement this year. The Terps were crushed 43-3 in their opening game last Saturday. No, it wasn't by any of the Big Ten powers. That 40-point loss came to Northwestern! Minnesota is a better team than the Wildcats. Maryland surrendered 325 yards rushing to Northwestern. Minnesota running back Mohamed Ibrahim is superior to any of the Wildcat running backs. The Gophers have a huge edge in the passing game with QB Tanner Morgan and Rashod Bateman, who could be the best wide receiver in the Big Ten. The Gophers were hoping to defeat Michigan in their opener last Saturday. Didn't happen because the Wolverines had too many edges in the trenches. That won't be the case for the Gophers against this foe. Minnesota should control the line of scrimmage and its skill people are dangerous enough to make this game more of a blowout than the oddsmaker envisions. The Terps need their offense to at least be competitive. It wasn't against Northwestern generating just an early field goal. Taulia Tagovailoa didn't resemble his brother Tua at all. He was a major disappointment. He ended up getting yanked after throwing three interceptions. I have zero confidence that Maryland coach Mike Locksley can fix things, especially in such a short period of a time. |
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| 10-23-20 | UL-Lafayette v. UAB +3 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
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Louisiana Lafayette is 0-5 ATS the past five times it has been favored. I don't see that changing in this matchup. Alabama-Birmingham has the better rushing attack with Spencer Brown, the superior defense and is home. UAB has covered 72 percent of its past 26 home games. The Ragin' Cajuns have an up-tempo attack. They play fast and can run the ball well, too. But I like the Blazers ability to maintain ball-control and win the time of possession battle pounding away with Brown. The Blazers have rushed for more than 200 yards in three of their five games, while going 4-1. Brown has run for 472 yards with six TD's. UAB's offensive line, which has four returning starters, has permitted only three sacks. Lafayette surrendered 212 rushing yards in a 30-27 upset loss to Coastal Carolina in its last game. |
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| 10-20-20 | Rays +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -129 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
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Clayton Kershaw is one of the greatest pitchers of his generation - when it comes to the regular season. Kershaw just isn't the same pitcher in the World Series where he's 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA. All together, Kershaw has made 35 postseason appearances and has a losing record with a 4.31 ERA. Kershaw also has been dealing with back problems. Kershaw is going to have to deal with the hottest power hitter in the playoffs, Randy Arozarena. He's smacked seven homers in 55 postseason at bats. So there's an excellent chance Tampa Bay can keep this game within one run, if not win outright. If given 1 1/2 runs, the Rays would be 11-3 in the playoffs. LA would be 4-5 in its last nine games if minus 1 1/2 runs. The teams were idle on Monday. The Rays are 9-2 following an off day. Tampa Bay is pitching Tyler Glasnow. He's prone to the long ball, but is a huge strikeout pitcher. He struck out 91 batters in 57 1/3 innings during the regular season and has fanned 25 in 19 1/3 postseason innings.
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| 10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +1.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -109 | 85 h 22 m | Show |
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If Dak Prescott didn't get hurt, Dallas would be at least a field goal favorite. Now they are home underdogs despite the Cardinals not playing that well and being on the road for a third straight game. The Cowboys, as it turned out, made a shrewd move signing Andy Dalton. He is a decent QB when surrounded with weapons. Dalton certainly has them here with arguably the best running back in the NFL, Ezekiel Elliott, and the top wide receiving trio in the league with Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb. They could torch a Cardinals secondary whose cornerbacks have been struggling. Dallas is without both of its starting offensive tackles. The Cardinals, though, suffered a major loss themselves when star pass rusher Chandler Jones was lost for the season. They don't have anyone who can rush the passer nearly as well as Jones. The Cardinals have received very little from heralded first-round draft pick Isaiah Simmons. He's been non-existent up to this point. Even with Jones, the Cardinals ranked in the bottom-five in pressuring the quarterback. I'm expecting the Cowboys to be super up for this Monday night home game wanting to show the nation they can win in their first full game without Prescott. Dalton will have had a full week of practice working with the first unit. He should be up for the challenge against a mediocre defense that just lost their best player. The Cardinals are 1-2 in their last three games. Their only win during this span was against the Jets. Their losses came to the Lions and Panthers. Arizona is 3-2 on the season. The three opponents they've defeated have a combined mark of 3-12. |
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| 10-17-20 | Central Florida -2.5 v. Memphis | Top | 49-50 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
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Central Florida has had two weeks to stew and think about its previous game - a home game the Knights lost straight-up to Tulsa as three-touchdown favorites. The ramifications of that stunning loss are two-fold: The Knights should come out extremely fired-up and ready. They also have discount value as the marketplace has knocked them down to being less than a field goal favorite. Central Florida is better than Memphis. But that loss to Tulsa hurt the Knights' prestige. They'll look to gain it back here against a foe they are 13-1 lifetime against with 13 straight victories. The teams didn't meet last year, but Central Florida beat the Tigers a combined four times during the 2017 and 2018 seasons. UCF has too much speed and skill position talent for the Tigers to handle. Knights sophomore QB Dillon Garbriel is one of the more underrated players in the country. Memphis is down from previous seasons because of coaching upheaval and lost talent. The Tigers don't have the defense to keep UCF in check, nor enough offense to keep up with the Knights. The Tigers' home field advantage is reduced, too, because only around 10,000 fans will be allowed into the 61,008-set Liberty Bowl due to COVID-19 restrictions. |
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| 10-15-20 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State -3 | Top | 52-59 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
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Oddsmakers are projecting another Sun Belt Conference shootout in this matchup. We do have two good offenses going here. But Arkansas State has better defensive players and its defense has gotten healthier. Defensive lineman Forrest Merrill is a pro prospect and linebacker Justin Rice won Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Week honors last week. Arkansas State is holding foes to 3.6 yards rushing. The Red Wolves have played four games this season, including the past two weeks. Georgia State only has played twice. The Panthers were idle last week. So Arkansas State should be the more in sync team. Arkansas State has a strong home field advantage. The Red Wolves have been above .500 at Centennial Bank Stadium during each of the last 15 years. They are 44-10 in their last 54 home games. They also are 16-5 during their last 21 midweek games. Centennial Bank Stadium holds around 31,000. There will be seating for 12,000, which would give the Red Wolves about 40 percent fan capacity. Georgia State is 2-10-2 ATS in its last 14 away contests. Arkansas State has covered in four of its last five home games. The Red Wolves have revenge for a 52-38 road loss to Georgia State last year. Arkansas State had won the previous six meetings. Georgia State is breaking in a new quarterback. The Panthers have committed five turnovers in their two games. That's a red flag and another reason why I like Arkansas State to get the cover.. |
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| 10-14-20 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Braves | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
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The Braves have captured the first two games of this NLCS matchup. But this sets up to be the Dodgers' spot. Given Clayton Kershaw's uncertain status following a flare-up of back trouble, Julio Urias might be LA's most reliable pitcher. Urias was 3-0 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.14 WHIP during the regular season. He's followed that up by being unscored upon in eight innings of postseason work striking out 11 while issuing just a single walk. Urias is a blazing 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.64 WHIP during his last three appearances spanning 14 innings. Atlanta has some vulnerability when you get past its first couple of starters. That's the case here with Kyle Wright getting the start. He was 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.55 ratio during the regular season. Wright pitched much better in his one playoff appearance shutting out the Marlins in six innings of work. The Dodgers aren't the Marlins. No team scored more runs and hit more homers than the Dodgers. The Dodgers have professional hitters who can take a walk if need be. Wright lacks good control as evidenced by his walking 24 batters in 38 innings.
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| 10-10-20 | Kansas State +9 v. TCU | Top | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
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Gary Patterson is a good coach, but not when it comes to covering the spread as a home favorite. TCU stunningly has failed to accomplish that 21 of the past 27 (22 percent) times in that role. I don't see the Horned Frogs changing that trend in this matchup. TCU has a young team and is off a huge road victory against Texas as a double-digit 'dog. So a letdown is very possible. Kansas State is 6-1 ATS the past seven times as a road 'dog. The Wildcats have shown they are an underrated team upsetting Texas Tech and Oklahoma during their last two games. The line is too high here. This could be a reaction to K-State QB Skylar Thompson getting injured last week. Thompson could be ready to go here. Even if he isn't, though, I'm fine with backup QB Will Howard, who threw for 173 yards against Texas Tech after replacing Thompson. The Wildcats have an intriguing weapon in 5-foot-5, 168-pound fresham all-purpose back Deuce Vaughn. He's the only player in the Big 12 to lead his team in rushing and receiving and is the only player in the country to have both 200 rushing and receiving yards. Some of the Horned Frogs' home field edge is reduced because of limited capacity. Only 12,000 spectators will be allowed into 46,000 Amon Carter Stadium because of the pandemic. |
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| 10-10-20 | Arkansas v. Auburn -13.5 | Top | 28-30 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
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Congrats to Arkansas' first-year head coach Sam Pittman in the Razorbacks upsetting then-No. 16 Mississippi State, 21-14, as 16 1/2-point road 'dogs last week. That was the Razorbacks' first SEC win following 20 straight conference losses. Don't expect the Razorbacks to make it two straight SEC victories. Not only do the Razorbacks face the challenge of a second straight league road game, but they have to refocus while drawing an angry Auburn. The Tigers lost to third-ranked Georgia last week. Arkansas has an improved defense. Still, the Razorbacks remain far inferior to Auburn. The Tigers blew out Arkansas, 51-10, on the road last year. There isn't a 41-point difference this season. But the gap still is more than two touchdowns.
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| 10-04-20 | Bills -2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 125 h 14 m | Show |
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Only Kansas City and Baltimore are better AFC teams than Buffalo. The Bills are several levels higher than the Raiders especially with Las Vegas dealing with a cluster injury problem at wide receiver and in its offensive line. The spread is short because the Bills are traveling cross-country fresh off a victory while drawing the Raiders in an angry mood following their loss to the Patriots. Don't overthink these situational factors, though. Buffalo is far better than Las Vegas on both sides of the ball with Josh Allen developing into an elite force in this his third season. Allen already has set a Buffalo team record by accounting for a dozen TD's through three games. The Bills are healthy again at linebacker. Their defensive line has tremendous depth and their secondary is very good. Derek Carr could be down two starting offensive linemen and three wide receivers. Buffalo is giving up just 17.2 points in its last 10 away matchups. The Bills also have covered 78 percent of their past 11 road contests. |
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| 10-03-20 | Oklahoma -7 v. Iowa State | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 56 m | Show |
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I want Oklahoma going for me in a bounce-back spot after the Sooners were upset by Kansas State at home last week even though they outgained the Wildcats by 117 yards.The Sooners may have gotten complacent in that game with a 35-14 lead. The Sooners haven't lost consecutive regular season games in 21 years. Iowa State has talent, but the Cyclones aren't in the Sooners' elite class. The Cyclones already were beaten by Louisiana-Lafayette as 12-point home favorites and defeated TCU by three points. Oklahoma has dominated this series winning 20 of the last 21 meetings. The Sooners have won 24 in a row at Iowa State.
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| 10-01-20 | Broncos +2 v. Jets | Top | 37-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
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Welcome to the Toilet Bowl. There are three AFC teams who are 0-3. These are two of them. The third is the Texans, who have played at the Chiefs, Ravens and at the Steelers. There has been drastic line movement in this matchup with the Jets now the favorite. Much of this line change is due to the Broncos switching quarterbacks going from backup Jeff Driskel to third-stringer Brett Rypien with Drew Lock out. I actually prefer Rypien over Driskel, who is 1-8 as an NFL starter. Denver is making the long journey to the East Coast. But much of this disadvantage is off-set by this being a night game and fans not being allowed in the stands at MetLife Field. The Jets have lost by a combined 57 points, an average of 19 points a game. They've lost to the Bills, battered 49ers and Colts. Denver has two close losses, falling to the Titans by two and to the Steelers on the road by five points. Tennessee and Pittsburgh are each 3-0. Even with the Broncos going with a reserve QB, I still rate them superior to the Jets. Denver has the best pass rusher, Bradley Chubb, and more weapons than the Jets with Melvin Gordon, Noah Fant and Jerry Jeudy. The Broncos also might get back talented all-purpose back Phillip Lindsay. Sam Darnold has regressed. Perhaps he's seeing ghosts again confused by Adam Gase's complex offense. Gase has a history of getting underachieving performances from players who have thrived when they have gotten away from him. Ryan Tannehill and Kenyan Drake are two prime examples. Darnold might fall into that category, too. There's an intangible element here. Speculation is Gase could get fired if the Jets lose this game. Gase is not popular with some of his players. This leaves you to wonder if some Jets are secretly hoping they lose this game in the hopes Gase gets canned? If that were to happen, an interim Jets coach would have 10 days to get ready for the next game so the timing would be good. |
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| 09-30-20 | Heat +5 v. Lakers | Top | 98-116 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 39 m | Show |
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Maybe LeBron James is the Chosen One and his Lakers the anointed world champions. That's probably how this NBA Championship Series is going to get played out. But Miami will make LA sweat and earn it. The Lakers have been idle for four days. They lost the opening game in their playoff series against Portland and Houston. There's going to be a feeling-out process here in this Game 1. There could be Lakers rust. Eric Spoelstra is a top-notch coach. Miami will be well-prepared. The Lakers will need to hit a fair amount of 3-point shots to dent the Heat's 2-3 zone defense. Anthony Davis will have to deal with Bam Adebayo, who is the best defender an opponent can have to square off against Davis. James is going to be facing a swarm of wing players who are accomplished defenders and have experience guarding him - Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala. Spoelstra coached James in Miami. This will be James' stiffest test of the postseason. Let's forget the regular season. Erase it. Concentrate on the bubble where the Heat raised their game to an unprecedented level sweeping the Pacers, stunning the Bucks and taking out the Celtics. The Heat's intensity and variety of defenses help them bottle up Giannis Antetokounmpo and then Jayson Tatum. The Heat have been tremendously underrated in the bubble covering 12 of their last 15 games. The Lakers haven't faced this strong of a defense. Portland ranked 27th defensively. Denver was 16th, Houston 15th. James and Davis are the two best players on the court. But the Heat have the next best three in Butler, Abebayo and Goran Dragic, who is having a strong postseason. I'll take the Heat's bench over LA's reserves. None of the Lakers' bench players has been able to match the instant offense of unconscious rookie Tyler Herro. Miami is likely to play more zone defense than the Lakers are used to. The Lakers rank 21st in 3-point shooting percentage. By comparison, the Celtics ranked 13th. There is no home-court in the bubble. This is strictly matchup basketball where coaching is magnified. If the Heat don't steal this first game, they should at least take LA to the wire. |
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| 09-29-20 | Blue Jays v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 110 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
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Normally the Blue Jays would go with their top pitcher, Hyun Jin Ryu, in Game 1 of this playoff series. But Ryu is coming off a 100-pitch game against the Yankees this past Thursday. So Toronto doesn't want to use Ryu on only three day's rest. Instead the Blue Jays are going with Matt Shoemaker, who has pitched just three innings since Aug. 21 because of right shoulder injury. Shoemaker has a 4.71 ERA and figures to be rusty. He last pitched eight days ago. Tampa Bay is extremely tough at Tropicana Park. The Rays have won 40 of the last 53 times there for 75 percent. Tampa Bay is hot, too, going 9-2 in its past 11 games. Blake Snell gets the call for the Rays. Snell won the Cy Young Award three seasons ago and has been a solid 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA this season. He has a career 2.81 ERA versus Toronto in 13 starts. |
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| 09-27-20 | Raiders v. Patriots -6 | Top | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 76 h 53 m | Show |
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Just a terrible spot for Las Vegas. The Raiders are traveling cross-country off a monster home upset win against the Saints this past Monday night. The Patriots may have the best secondary in football. The Patriots also have limited their opponents to the third-fewest snaps. Derek Carr has gone against Bill Belichick twice. Carr has completed less than 60 percent of his throws, has fewer than a 5.0 YPA and has a 1-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those two combined games. The Raiders also could be without both of their starting offensive tackles. Richie Incognito is out with an Achilles injury and Trent Brown is dealing with a calf injury. Cam Newton appears to be a perfect fit for New England. He looked great against Seattle last week throwing for 444 yards and three TD's. Newton remains a huge running threat. The Raiders are giving up 27 points a game. Las Vegas is catching New England off a loss. The Patriots have covered 70 percent of their last 60 games following a defeat. |
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| 09-23-20 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
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The premise of my handicap on this Game 4 matchup begins with a quirk - the teams have been idle for three full days. The key is figuring out who benefits most from that weird scheduling. I've always thought the Celtics were the better team in this series. I still do. Yet Boston is down 2-1 in the series because of not executing an end game blowing double-digit leads in both of their Game 1 and Game 2 losses, Miami's bench outplaying the Celtics' reserves and Erik Spoelstra out-coaching Brad Stevens, which is tough to do. I don't look at the Celtics losing their new-found momentum with this lengthy time off following their 11-point victory in Game 3 this past Saturday. Instead it's a break for Boston. The Celtics have a starting five and star players advantage on Miami. The Heat don't present the elite defense Toronto did during Boston's previous series. The Heat lack the quickness and defensive studs to counter the size and athleticism of the Celtics' guards and wings. The Heat could exploit their depth and versatility during the first couple of games because they were less fatigued than Boston. The Celtics entered the series having played 10 games in 21 days with their starters logging heavy minutes. The return of Gordon Hayward from an ankle injury also holds a big impact. Not only is Hayward a playmaker who gives the Celtics a fourth excellent option to go with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker, but his ability to log at least 30 minutes keeps a much lesser player like Semi Ojeleye off the court. The Celtics can now go with their starters for 40 or so minutes and not worry about weariness because of the extra time afforded them. When the Celtics have their best five players on the court, the Heat are not a match for them. It's not that big of a fluke the Celtics have covered 73 percent of the time during the past 27 instances when playing on 3 or more day's rest. Rarely does Stevens get out-coached. He may be the best coach in the Eastern Conference. But Spoelstra is in that best coach discussion, too. I think Stevens figures things out during the long break. Putting defensive ace Marcus Smart on Goran Dragic was one good adjustment already made. The Celtics outscored the Heat, 60-36, in the paint in the last game. Boston has four stars. Miami has two with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, who is proving himself once again in this series. There's not much else Spoelstra can do. His team isn't as talented as Boston, isn't as good defensively and their conditioning edge has been removed by the long break. |
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| 09-20-20 | Chiefs -8.5 v. Chargers | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -106 | 86 h 27 m | Show |
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The Chiefs came on to capture the Super Bowl last season. They are even better this year. Their defense has been solid since the middle of last season and the offense is even scarier with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire being an upgrade on their previous running backs. He's just one of two new players to Kansas City's formidable starting lineup. Having lineup and coaching continuity is vital this season. The Chiefs have that. The Chargers hold little home field advantage. Their offensive line is banged-up and quarterback Tyrod Taylor can't keep up with Patrick Mahomes. The Chargers have little back-door cover capability if falling behind by double-digits. The Chargers' O-line already is banged-up missing two starters last Sunday. Kansas City has the pass rushers with Chris Jones and Frank Clark to take advantage. The Chiefs put up 34 points on the Texans last Thursday. Kansas City's offense hasn't even rounded into top shape yet. The Chargers have a better defense than Houston, but losing star safety Derwin James hurts them. The Chiefs have dominated the Chargers beating them 11 of the last 12 times. Kansas City is just on a great point spread roll period going 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 games. I'm not going to overthink this matchup. I'm just going to roll with the Chiefs. |
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| 09-19-20 | Central Florida -7.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 49-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 54 m | Show |
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Central Florida has been one of the most impressive teams in the country during the last three seasons going 35-4 while covering 64 percent of its away contests during this time frame. The Knights are proven road warriors covering 14 of their last 18 away matchups, winning 10 road games by more than a touchdown during this three-year span. The Knights start out fast, too, going 9-0 ATS during the first three games of the season the last three years. The Knights draw Georgia Tech, which is playing a non-conference game here. The Yellow Jackets opened their season upsetting fellow ACC foe, Florida State, 16-13 on the road as nearly two-touchdown 'dogs. So this is a potential flat spot and letdown spot for Georgia Tech. Not to take anything away from Georgia Tech, but Florida State did not play well. Central Florida has a much stronger offense than Georgia Tech, which still is in rebuild mode under second-year coach Geoff Collins.
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| 09-18-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 56 h 49 m | Show |
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Right before the NBA shut down, the Lakers were playing better than any team posting a late February victory against the Celtics and early March wins against the Bucks and Clippers. It has taken six months and playing in a bubble, but the Lakers are back to being the best team in the NBA. LeBron James is on a mission. I haven't seen a mega-superstar so committed to winning a championship since Michael Jordan. The Lakers can win going big, or win playing small ball. Their defense is top-notch and they have tremendous versatility to go with James and fellow superstar Anthony Davis. The Lakers handled Damian Lillard, the hottest player in the bubble, and they held the high-scoring Rockets to 99.3 points per game during the last three games of that series. The Nuggets are not in the Lakers' class. The Nuggets are still on Cloud 9 after coming from a 3-1 deficit to pull out a shocking series win against the heavily favored Clippers. They beat the Clippers in Game 7 on Tuesday night. I don't think the Nuggets will be ready for this Game 1 matchup. It comes too soon for them. The Lakes have been idle for six days. Yes, the Lakers lost Game 1 to Portland and Game 1 to Houston before winning the rest of the games in those series without another loss. LA has learned its lesson. Look for the Lakers to come out fully ready after those previous Game 1 mishaps. |
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| 09-17-20 | Bengals +6 v. Browns | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 43 h 16 m | Show |
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Normally it's a huge disadvantage to be the road team for a Thursday game. But Cleveland's home edges are reduced. There won't be close to 70,000 screaming Browns fans at FirstEnergy Stadium. Instead seating capacity will be limited to 6,000. The Bengals know the Browns well being heated division rivals. Cincinnati also has coaching continuity. This is something the Browns don't have with first-year head coach Kevin Stefanski and a new offensive system. The Bengals displayed promise and hope in their 16-13 opening week loss to the Chargers. They led the Chargers in the fourth quarter. Cincinnati was done in by poor place-kicking. That game should have at least reached overtime. The Browns, though, also are dealing with kicking woes bringing in Cody Parkey to replace Austin Seibert, who the Bengals promptly picked up maybe to pick up some secrets about the Browns. Cleveland is likely to run the ball a lot at the Bengals. The Browns weren't able to pound away opening week because they fell too far behind the Ravens. Getting smashed by Baltimore, 38-6, surely does not help the Browns' fragile morale. The Bengals should be able to throw effectively on the Browns, who are without active linebacker Mack Wilson and already have a depleted secondary down three projected starters. Safety Grant Delpit is out for the season, while cornerbacks Kevin Johnson and Greedy Williams didn't play in Week 1 and aren't likely to be ready here during this short turnaround. The Browns probably are going to be forced to use special teams player Tavierre Thomas as a slot cornerback. Thomas played just three defensive snaps last season and 28 defensive snaps this past Sunday. The Bengals have a deep wide receiving group with A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, John Ross and Auden Tate. Joe Burrow is at his best operating a spread-type offense, which the Bengals are smart enough to employ. Burrow can negate Myles Garrett and Cleveland's other pass rushers by effectively throwing short passes and using top-10 running back Joe Mixon on the ground. Cincinnati has covered nine of the last 11 in this series and also is 8-3 ATS the past 11 times as a road 'dog. The Browns aren' good enough, nor trustworthy enough, to lay nearly a touchdown against a much-improved division foe. |
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| 09-16-20 | Diamondbacks v. Angels -1.5 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
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An excuse is hardly needed to fade the sinking Diamondbacks. But I have an excellent excuse in this matchup - Dylan Bundy. Even with their victory against the Angels on Tuesday night, the Diamondbacks still have lost 20 of their last 26 games with five of their past six defeats occurring by multiple runs. Bundy has become an ace. All it took was getting out of the AL East and a huge hitter's park in Baltimore to joining the Angels and their pitcher-friendly park. Bundy is 5-2 with a 2.48 ERA that shrinks to 2.29 if you just go by his last three starts. The Angels just faced lefty Madison Bumgarner last night, reaching him for eight earned runs and 13 hits in 5 1/3 innings. Now the Angels draw a second straight southpaw in Caleb Smith, a youngster who has yet to prove he can consistently pitch effectively away from Marlins Park after being dealt to the Diamondbacks by the Marlins at the trade deadline.
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| 09-13-20 | Cowboys v. Rams +3 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 108 h 19 m | Show |
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The public appeal of the Cowboys and the market being down on the Rams after last season's disappointment have produced a mispriced line here. The Rams should not be a field goal home 'dog to Dallas. Although there will be no fans in the stand, the Rams have extra motivation for a 44-21 embarrassing loss they suffered to the Cowboys last season and this being the first game at their new SoFi Stadium. Jared Goff is close to an elite quarterback - when he's playing at home where he has a 31-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio the past two seasons compared to a 22-to-17 ratio on the road during this time span. Goff is a pocket passer. The Cowboys don't have their full complement of star pass rushers yet. Dallas' secondary is the most vulnerable part of its defense. Dallas has a high-powered attack. However, the Cowboys' offense may need time to get into gear. Mike McCarthy didn't coach last year. He had a shortened offseason and no preseason to to implement his style. The Cowboys are down two of their offensive linemen from a year ago being minus center Travis Frederick and right tackle La'el Collins. Then there is the Cowboys record as a road favorite. It's not good. Dallas lost straight-up laying points on the road last season to the Eagles, Bears, Jets and Saints, who were using Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. |
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| 09-12-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 96-119 | Win | 101 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
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The Rockets are cooked. They know it and they can't really do anything about it. LeBron James is on a mission to bring the Lakers to the NBA Championship Series. The Rockets have firepower. But the Rockets don't match up well to the Lakers, are outcoached and LA has a huge confidence and psychological edge. This has built up through the last three games, all won by the Lakers after they lost Game 1. The final score in LA's 110-100 Game 4 victory on Thursday was misleading. The Lakers dominated the Rockets leading by 23 points in the fourth quarter before letting up, which they won't do in this potential close-out game. The Lakers outscored the smallish Rockets, 62-24, in the paint, grabbed 26 more rebounds and held a 19-2 fast-break points edge. Even if he were a good coach, which he isn't, Mike D'Antoni doesn't have the lineup flexibility to make proper adjustments. The Rockets have just one style and the Lakers have countered and exposed it. The Lakers have dictated their style and pace the past three games. That's not going to change. The Lakers should have a killer attitude, too, after the Rockets threw a bit of scare into them in Game 4 by cutting the margin to just five points with around a minute left. James and fellow superstar Anthony Davis are getting the necessary help from their teammates. Rajon Rondo has been coming up big. James reminds me of Michael Jordan in not just terms of basketball greatness, but in leadership and obsession to win a title willing his teammates to perform at peak efficiency. This is what James said following Game 4: "Obviously, we've got to be better. We got to close out games the right way." Never mind that the Lakers still won by 10. James wasn't happy. I don't think the Rockets' heads are all there. Danuel House Jr. being kicked out of the bubble for a violation of health doesn't help their focus. House averaged 11.4 points and 5.8 rebounds in the playoffs. His departure further exposes the Rockets' lack of depth and fatigue issues. |
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| 09-09-20 | Raptors +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
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I see too much overreaction to the Celtics in this Game 6 following Boston's, 111-89, blowout victory against the Raptors on Monday. It was surprising how little energy the Raptors came out and exerted in that loss, which puts them on the verge of elimination. Zero chance the Raptors come out lethargic in this one with their season on the line. Boston has more star power, but there is not a class difference between these two teams. The Raptors are the No. 1 defensive team in the league. They are well-coached, battle-tested having won the championship last season and will play with tremendous energy. Yes, Toronto got buried in Game 1 and Game 5. But they won two of the other three games and had a chance to tie at the buzzer in the other one. The Celtics are an elite Eastern Conference team. So is Toronto. It is a mistake to disrespect the Raptors. |
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| 09-06-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
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Lakers minus 5 1/2 vs. Rockets We've seen this occur before with the Lakers. Just like in LA's previous playoff series, the Lakers were ambushed in Game 1. LA lost to Portland and now was blown out by the Rockets in the series opener. The Lakers responded by destroying the Trail Blazers by 23 points in Game 2 while winning the next four games in that series. Part of that Game 2 victory was because the Trail Blazers were tired and in a letdown spot. That could happen to the Rockets, too, since they were coming off a grueling 7-game series against the physical Thunder. LA hadn't played in six days before Game 1. The rust should be off now for the Lakers, especially their reserve and role players who were outplayed. It shouldn't have happened, but the Lakers also were caught off guard by the Rockets' speed. They won't be anymore. LeBron James won't let it happen again. |
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| 09-05-20 | Raptors v. Celtics +1 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -106 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
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It took a miracle play with a half-second left, but the Raptors got their victory against the Celtics. That happened in Game 3 on Thursday when OG Anunoby hit a long corner 3-pointer to pull out a 104-103 Raptors win. The Celtics still are fuming about that loss. I consider Boston the superior team and the Celtics sure won't be lacking incentive after two days of watching and hearing about the Raptors' tremendous in-bound play to Anunoby. The Celtics are 6-1 ATS and 5-2 SU versus the Raptors this season. The Celtics have the star power Toronto lacks without Kawhi Leonard. The Celtics have several go-to player options. The Raptors don't have anyone proven to carry them in playoff crunch time since Leonard departed. Boston leads this series yet hasn't played its best basketball yet. That "A" game is due to come right here. The spread couldn't be lower, but note Boston has covered 75 percent of the time in 24 instances of being an underdog this season. The Celtics also have covered six of their seven playoff games. If the 76ers didn't hit a couple of meaningless long 3-pointers in the final 30 seconds off a loss, the Celtics would have an unbeaten postseason spread mark. |
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| 09-04-20 | Rockets +6.5 v. Lakers | Top | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
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The Lakers very well could be the best team in the NBA - if they are on their "A" game. I don't think we see that here, though. We certainly didn't see it in the Lakers' Game 1 series matchup against Portland. The Trail Blazers upset the Lakers, 100-93, as 6 1/2-point 'dogs in that series opener. LA opened that series having finished with the worst offense of any of the bubble teams. The combination of LA stepping up its game and Portland running out of gas and being severely banged-up resulted in the Lakers winning the next four games. This brings us to this stage. The Lakers have been idle since Saturday. Six days between games is too long. So there is likely to be some rust. The Rockets struggled with the Thunder before dispatching them in Game 7 on Tuesday. It's a short turnaround after a physical and emotional series. But the Rockets do have a full day to rest and recuperate. They are in a bubble, too. So they should have their full focus and concentration. James Harden is thrilled to be rid of rookie defensive ace Lugentz Dort. There isn't a player in the league who can guard Harden as effectively as Dort. Certainly the Lakers don't have one. The closest might be Alex Caruso. If the Lakers try him on Harden they're going to give up offense. Caruso is 5-for-28 in 3-point shooting since play resumed. I'm confident Harden will return to his normal dominant self free of the pesky Dort. The key is Russell Westbrook. He was plenty rusty returning from a quad injury. But he's had three games now to get back into shape. Westbrook presents a tough matchup for the Lakers. The Rockets are 2-0 against the Lakers in their last two meetings, one of which came in the bubble. Houston won those games by an average of 13 points. The Lakers have failed to cover nine of the last 13 times they've been favored. |
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| 08-31-20 | Heat +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 115-104 | Win | 100 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
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The Bucks lost to the Magic in the first game of their opening series. So they are certainly capable of losing to the Heat, who are much superior to the Magic and match up well to the Bucks. I envision a very tough series for Milwaukee, whose mental focus might not all be there. The Heat have playoff experience, added several strong pieces right before bubble play began and Erik Spoelstra is one of the better coaches in the league. The Heat have proven they can play with the big boys of the East going 8-5 versus the Bucks, Raptors, 76ers and Celtics. They dominated the Pacers going 7-1 against them. The Heat played tremendous in sweeping the Pacers in their first-round series winning all four games by nine or more points. Miami beat the Bucks in both of its meetings before the restart. The Bucks defeated the Heat, 130-116, in their lone bubble matchup. That score is highly misleading, though. Miami led by 17 points at halftime. The Bucks really wanted that game since they were off back-to-back losses and Miami didn't have Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic. Now the Heat are healthy. The Heat are a dangerous foe to Milwaukee because of several reasons. Bam Adebayo could be the most improved player in the league. He's a tremendous defensive player and did one of the best jobs of any player in the league in defending Giannis Antetokoumpo. The Bucks' lone defensive weakness is 3-point defense because they stress inside defense stacking the paint. The Heat shoot 37.9 percent from 3-point range. That was second best in the NBA. Milwaukee led the NBA in scoring. The Bucks did it by being strong on the fast break and also scoring from inside the paint. The Heat gave up the fewest fast-break points in the NBA and also rank among the top-five in paint protection. So it's not some fluke that Miami beat Milwaukee two of three times.
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| 08-30-20 | Clippers v. Mavs +10.5 | Top | 111-97 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
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Only once have the Mavericks been a double-digit underdog this season - and they beat the Bucks straight-up on the road in that game. But the combination of the Clippers coming off a 43-point victory against the Mavericks and Dallas being without injured Kristaps Porzingis has caused the oddsmaker to make the Clippers favored by more points in this game than in any other during the series. Maybe the oddsmaker also is thinking Luka Doncic could be hobbled by an ankle injury. If that's the case it would be a mistake. The Clippers buried the Mavericks this past Tuesday. The teams have been idle since giving Doncic much needed recovery time. "The extra two or three days is a plus, certainly. In practice today, he looked pretty good, so going into tomorrow, I don't think he's going to be limited," Dallas coach Rick Carlisle was quoted as saying on Saturday about Doncic. Doncic's guts and heroics have been an inspiration for the Mavericks. They are facing elimination in this game down 3-2 so an all-out effort should be forthcoming. But what about the Clippers' motivation? I have to question it. LA can't be blamed if feeling overconfident coming off its 154-111 Game 5 win. The Clippers also know Porzingis won't be playing. Along with possible overconfidence, the Clippers could lack focus following the events of the past few days. They, along with the Lakers, reportedly were two of the clubs that voted to end the season. How much of their hearts will be in this game? On top of that the Clippers are being asked to cover double-digits. I don't see it. |
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| 08-28-20 | Mariners +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
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The Angels aren't playing well, losing 11 of their last 14 games and Andrew Heaney is in bad form with a 9.00 ERA in his last three starts. So I'll take a 1 1/2 runs with the Mariners, who have won five of their last six. If given 1 1/2 runs, Seattle would be 9-3 in its last 12 games. The Mariners are going with Nick Margevicius, who is showing potential in his last two starts joining the rotation in place of injured Kendall Graveman. Margevicius has a 10-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in those outings and is coming off a victory against the Rangers. |
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| 08-25-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 111-154 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
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Dramatic victory by the Mavericks on Sunday nipping the Clippers, 135-133, in overtime at the buzzer on a 3-pointer by Luka Doncic. That Dallas victory evened this playoff series at 2-2 and had Clippers coach Doc Rivers calling his team emotionally weak. It's too bad Dallas can't savor that victory longer. But the Mavericks can't. I don't see them being able to step up again in such a short time frame against a superior foe that isn't going to lack motivation and should be fully aroused. The Clippers are the deeper teams. That's going to matter more and more as the series continues. Doncic is playing on a tender left ankle. Kristaps Porzingis is a game-time decision with a sore knee. He missed Sunday's game, which put an extra burden on Doncic and the rest of the Mavericks. The Mavericks still won with tremendous effort and grit after falling behind by 21 points. But the bill for that effort comes due here. Dallas is 1-5 ATS the last six times following a victory. Even with that win and cover, Dallas still is 2-6 ATS the past eight times versus the Clippers. Paul George is way overdue to shoot better. He's missed 21 of 25 shots from beyond the arc during the last three games. The looks and open floor are there for George. It's not the Mavericks' mediocre defense that is causing George to miss. So a correction is coming. If George plays his normal stellar game, the Clippers should prevail by double-digits. Since I wrote this word has come down that Porzingis won't play. The line has gone up because of it but I still would lay single-digits with the Clippers. |
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| 08-24-20 | Lakers -7.5 v. Blazers | Top | 135-115 | Win | 100 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
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No doubt the Lakers are the superior team. That's not the question here, though. The question is can the Lakers cover this mid-size number? Yes for three big reasons: 1. LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Trail Blazers can't control either one. They don't have the elite defense to do that. 2. Injuries. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are both playing hurt and at less than 100 percent. Big man Zach Collins is out making the task of guarding Davis even more difficult. 3. A heavy fatigue factor working against the Trail Blazers. Portland has had to play every matchup, including an extra play-in game, like it was a Game 7 matchup. This has taken a huge mental and physical toll. The Trail Blazers have one the thinnest benches in the league, made worse by injuries. Their starters are exhausted because they've had to go extra minutes while not having the customary two days off between games, nor a home playoff game to get a crowd lift and raise spirits. Take a look at the foul situation from Saturday's Game 3. The Lakers shot 43 free throws to Portland's 19. Was the officiating bad? I didn't think so. The Trail Blazers are just a tired team so they can't play playoff-caliber defense without fouling. The Lakers made only 65 percent of their free throws. They also committed 17 turnovers. So LA didn't come close to playing its "A" level game. Yet the Lakers still won by eight points after winning by 23 points in Game 2. Portland is out of gas since its Game 1 upset win. That got the Lakers' attention. So don't expect a letdown from LA. The Lakers know to keep their foot on the gas here.
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| 08-22-20 | Lakers -7 v. Blazers | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
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The Trail Blazers are heavily reliant on Damian Lillard. There are two major concerns about Lillard in this Game 3 series matchup. It's not just Lillard playing with a dislocated finger. It's how the Lakers defended him during their 111-88 victory this past Thursday. They boxed him at the top of the key, limiting his space to shoot. It threw off Lillard's long-range shooting. If Lillard is hampered - both physically and strategically - Portland is in trouble. I don't trust the rest of its players to step up. CJ McCollum is dealing with a broken bone in his back. He's 4-for-13 from 3-point range in the series. Carmelo Anthony has missed 17 of 21 shots from the floor in the series and Jusuf Nurkic is 8-of-21 from the field. On top of this, big man Zach Collins is out with an ankle injury. He's done for the playoffs. The Trail Blazers lack the defense to contain Anthony Davis. The Lakers destroyed the Trail Blazers by 23 points in Game 2 with LeBron James contributing only 10 points. Davis tore the Trail Blazers to shreds with 31 points playing less than 30 minutes. Portland could put Wenyen Gabriel on Davis with Collins out. The problem is Gabriel contributes no offense. The Trail Blazers were minus 11 during Gabriel's 21 minutes on the court. I'm not expecting to see the Lakers squad of Game 1, the one that missed 32 of 37 shots from 3-point range and lost 100-93. The Lakers have huge matchup edges now and smell blood. The Trail Blazers are banged up, don't play defense and are carrying a heavy fatigue load. They had to gut their way through eight seeding games and then the play-in game in two weeks to reach the playoffs. Many times Lillard had to carry them with monster scoring performances. Portland's players have logged far more tough minutes than the Lakers. The Lakers are the fresher and superior team.
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| 08-21-20 | Celtics -5 v. 76ers | Top | 102-94 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
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You can pull out the fork. The 76ers are finished. Mentally fragile, missing star Ben Simmons, unable to win away from Philadelphia and totally outcoached by the Celtics, the 76rs aren't rising to upset Boston in this Game 3 after losing by eight points and 27 points during the first two games of this series. Minus Simmons, a tremendous two-way player, the 76ers are not only lost on offense but clueless defensively. They don't have the answers, nor the coaching acumen to stop the Celtics' pick-and-rolls and accurate perimeter shooting. It doesn't matter if the Celtics are minus Gordon Hayward. They are a deep team and the 76ers can't slow down Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker. The 76ers are 12-28 away from home. They quit in Game 2. They don't have the matchup answers, nor ability to come up with an effective defensive game plan to stop the Celtics. Maybe the 76ers put forth a supreme effort here down 0-2 in the series. Maybe. But the Celtics still have way too many things in their favor to not cover this mid-range point spread number.
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| 08-20-20 | Thunder +3 v. Rockets | Top | 98-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
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Whenever the Thunder are underdogs they get my first look - and in this case last look. I want the Thunder going for me today after the Rockets ambushed them, 123-108, on Tuesday. Oklahoma City is 41-20 ATS as an underdog. That's a long-term covering rate of 67 percent. The Thunder also are 10-2 ATS the past 12 times they played after losing by more than 10 points. Houston was an underdog in Game 1. The Rockets have failed to cover eight of the last 11 times they've been favored. The Rockets fired 52 shots from 3-point range in Game 1. They connected on 38 percent. Houston shot 48 percent from the floor and made 89 percent of its free throws. The Rockets live-and-die with the 3-point shot. But Oklahoma City is ranked No. 3 in the NBA in 3-point defense holding foes to 34 percent. On the season, the Rockets shot 45.1 percent from the floor and made 34.5 percent of their 3-pointers. They also are a 79 percent shooting free throw team. So the Rockets were hotter than normal in Game 1. I see the Thunder being more prepared for the Rockets' various perimeter looks and for Houston to not overachieve with its shooting like it did in the opener. The Thunder surrenders six fewer points per game than the Rockets. Remember, too, that Russell Westbrook is out with a right quad injury. While Westbrook is sidelined, the Thunder could get back defensive ace Lugentz Dort. He's been out with a knee injury and is questionable for today's game. That would just be an added bonus if he were to play.
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| 08-19-20 | Mavs +6.5 v. Clippers | Top | 127-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
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The Mavericks are a dangerous team. Their record is 43-32. They have lost 13 times since Feb. 7 with more than half of those defeats occurring by 4 or fewer points. The Clippers beat the Mavericks, 118-110, this past Monday to open this series. Dallas lost by eight points despite opening the game being outscored, 18-2. The Mavericks lost despite a bogus ejection of Kristaps Porzingis, their second-best player and top big man, less than three minutes into the third quarter. LA has the better defense and more bench strength. However, the Mavericks finished with the highest-rated offense in NBA history. The Clippers are still working a number of their players back into the rotation after they missed the final regular season games in the bubble. This list includes Montrezl Harrell and Patrick Beverley.
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| 08-18-20 | Magic v. Bucks -12 | Top | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
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Now it's time for the Bucks to get serious. The Raptors and Celtics, their main competitors for the Eastern Conference crown, each won their opening playoff games on Monday. Both covered the spread, too. A combination of urgency, Orlando injuries and the Magic's poor history of stepping up versus strong competition bodes well for the Bucks covering even as double-digit favorites. The Magic are 3-12 ATS the last 15 times going against above .500 opponents. The Bucks owned the Magic this season going 4-0 with a winning average margin of 17 points. The Bucks not only led the NBA in points per game at 118.7, but also gave up the fewest points in the paint. The formula to beat the Bucks is to be hot from 3-point range and be able to control Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Magic rank 25th in 3-point accuracy and lack a defensive stopper to deal with Antetokounmpo. Aaron Gordon is best suited to guard Antetokounmpo. Gordon, however, is doubtful due to a hamstring injury. Even if he plays, he won't be 100 percent. Not ideal when taking on arguably the NBA's best player. Gordon isn't the only player hurt for Orlando. Jonathan Isaac is out as is backup point guard Michael Carter-Williams. Both are strong defenders. The Magic are likely to fall behind and they lack the necessary firepower to get back into the game. This hurts them, too, if things turn into a fourth quarter garbage affair because the Bucks have an excellent bench. So I doubt Orlando's back-door capability.
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| 08-17-20 | 76ers v. Celtics -5.5 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
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The feeling here is the Celtics have been laying in the weeds. They are going to be dangerous in these playoffs and are a much better team than the 76ers especially with Philly missing injured Ben Simmons and with Joel Embiid once again not 100 percent. Boston is 22-14 away from home. Philadelphia is 12-26. But the 76ers' problems don't end there. The Celtics own edges at four of the five starting spots with Simmons out. Philly's lone matchup edge is Embiid against Boston's lunch-pail centers Daniel Theis and Robert Williams. Embiid suffered a bruised hand last Wednesday, too. So he might be hampered. The Celtics are loaded with athletic wing players. Simmons was the 76ers' best defensive player. Boston can set up mismatches all across the court and savvy coach Brad Stevens knows how to do that especially given extra time. The 76ers can't counter a playmaker like Kemba Walker, nor do they have the scorers to match Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Gordon Haywood. The 76ers didn't have enough time in the bubble to build the on-court chemistry needed to beat a high caliber opponent with their new starting lineup of Tobias Harris, Al Horford, Embiid, Josh Richardson and Shake Milton. Those five had limited minutes together during three of their last four seeding games. It doesn't bode well for the 76ers that they surrendered 53 points to T.J. Warren and 51 to Damian Lillard during the seeding games.
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| 08-15-20 | Rangers v. Rockies -1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
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Lance Lynn isn't pitching this game for Texas. That's a buy sign on Colorado especially with German Marquez taking the mound. Marquez tamed the Rangers when he faced them opening day limiting Texas to one run on two hits in 5 2/3 innings. But Lynn beat the Rockies that day, 1-0. Lynn also defeated the Rockies, 3-2 on Friday. Marquez has been solid all season not giving up more than two earned runs during any of his four starts. He has a 2.08 ERA and knows how to pitch at Coors Field. The same can't be said for Kyle Gibson, who is scheduled to make the start here for Texas. Gibson is 4-11 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 20 career interleague starts. This horrible mark doesn't include any games at Coors Fields either. This is the first time Gibson will pitch at the best hitting park in the majors. Gibson surrendered four runs on nine hits in 4 1/3 innings against the Mariners during his last start five days ago. The Mariners rank 26th in scoring averaging fewer than four runs per game. The Rockies lead the majors in runs scored at 5.5. They also are No. 1 in batting average. So Gibson is stepping way up in class. The Rangers by the way, rank 28th in runs at 3.6. The Rockies are 9-4 during their last 13 home games while the Rangers are 3-9 in their past 12 road contests.
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| 08-08-20 | Orioles v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
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The world champion Nationals were embarrassed, 11-0, by the lowly Orioles on Friday in the first game of this rivalry interleague series. Look for the Nationals to get their revenge today. Not only were the Nationals humiliated at home, but there is a strong sense of urgency. That loss dropped the Nationals to 4-6. The regular season is just 60 games. Baltimore is 32-82 in its next game following a victory. The Nationals are finally at full strength and have the superior starting pitcher going in a matchup of Thomas Eshelman versus Austin Voth. Eshelman is a fill-in for John Means. So this could turn into a bullpen game for the Orioles. Voth had tremendous success in his previous start against the Orioles. That came last July when he beat them, 8-1, giving up one run on four hits and one walk in six innings.
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| 08-03-20 | Phillies v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
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Yankees minus 1 1/2 runs minus $1.55 (run line) hosting Phillies Coming off eight days of being idle due to Coronavirus concerns, the Phillies are back in action against the best pitcher in the American League if not all of baseball - Gerrit Cole. Good luck with that. This is a huge mismatch and it's priced accurately that way. But the juice can be reduced to a more manageable level by backing the Yankees on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs. The Yankees are in the argument for best team in baseball opening 7-1. The Phillies appear way down this season. They've played only three games going 1-2. The three starting pitchers the Phillies have drawn are Sanday Alcantara, Caleb Smith and Robert Dugger. Now their rusty bats have to go against the dominant righty Cole. Philadelphia is 1-8 the last nine times it has faced a righty starter. The Phillies are starting Jake Arrieta, who is on the downside of his career and coming back from an elbow injury. . The Yankees have won six in a row. Cole is riding a career-best 18-game win streak. He hasn't lost in his last 24 starts. New York has been dominant as a home favorite winning 45 of the last 57 times in that role for 79 percent. All of the Yankees' victories except one this season have been by more than one run. |
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| 08-02-20 | Mavs -5.5 v. Suns | Top | 115-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
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The Mavericks are several tiers above the Suns. They are a tremendous scoring team and are a bit below-the-radar even though they are 40-28. Dallas has lost by four or fewer points in six of its last eight defeats. Dallas still is steaming from its last game, a 153-149 overtime loss to the Rockets two days ago. The Mavericks blew a 3-point lead with three seconds left in regulation. Dallas is 20-7-1 ATS following a loss. The Mavericks now step way down in class. The Suns were only invited to Orlando to fill out the number of teams. On top of this, Phoenix is a bit fat and happy after opening the rebooted season with a 125-112 victory against the Wizards, who are the worst team in the reboot. The Suns lack the Mavericks' depth especially with Kelly Oubre Jr. and Aron Baynes both out. Phoenix is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games.
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| 08-01-20 | 76ers v. Pacers +5.5 | Top | 121-127 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
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Talent-wise, the 76ers do hold an edge on the Pacers especially with Indiana missing emerging star Domantas Sabonis. He's out due to plantar fasciitis in his left foot. But there other factors that point to this being a very close game. Each team is 39-26. So it's an important matchup for playoff seeding. A loss wouldn't be devastating for the 76ers, though, because they drew a very easy schedule in this reboot of the season. Philadelphia's next four games following this one are against the Wizards, Magic, Trail Blazers and Suns. None of those teams has a winning record. The 76ers were practically unbeatable at home. But away from Wells Fargo Center, Philly went just 10-24. There are many questions for the 76ers such as: Can they be trusted as mid-sized neutral site chalk against a solid playoff team like the Pacers? Is Shake Milton a reliable point guard? Can Ben Simmons make the transition to power forward and be as effective without handling the ball so much? Is Joel Embiid fully healthy after missing the 76ers' last two scrimmages with a strained right calf? The Pacers have solid depth and Victor Oladipo is expected to play. He was just rounding into his All-Star form when league play was halted. |
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| 07-31-20 | Kings v. Spurs +3.5 | Top | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
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The Spurs are in serious danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 1997. This is a must-win spot for them. Sacramento needs to win, too, to keep its outside chances alive. San Antonio is 27-36. Sacramento is 28-36. The Spurs' best big man, seven-time All Star LaMarcus Aldridge, is out. The Kings' top big man, Marvin Bagley III, is out. Sacramento's best player is DeAaron Fox. He leads the team in points, assists and steals. Fox has been dealing with a sprained ankle. He may not be 100 percent. Certainly he's going to be rusty. Center Jakob Poeltl has looked good when Aldridge has been missing. The Spurs actually were outscoring opponents by 4.5 points per 100 possessions when Poeltl was on the floor instead of Aldridge. This is the first game back for each team since March. It's a no-brainer that Gregg Popovich gives the Spurs a monster coaching edge against Luke Walton especially in these circumstances. The Kings are much better in an underdog role. They are just 5-12 (29 percent) the past 17 times when laying points.
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| 07-30-20 | Clippers +3 v. Lakers | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 137 h 28 m | Show |
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I believe the better team is the underdog especially with the Lakers being without guards Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley. The Clippers are at full strength and have the strongest bench in the league. The clubs met three times this season. Every game was at Staples Center, which is the home floor for each of them. So neither team had a home court edge. This is significant because they are now playing at neutral site Orlando. The Clippers beat the Lakers two of three. The Clippers are 7-1 during their last eight games with that lone defeat occurring to the Lakers, 112-103. Note the Clippers were 2 1/2-point favorites in that contest. So the line value is obvious. Bradley and Rondo played significant roles in that win. Bradley had one of his best games of the season with 24 points while Rondo dished off seven assists. Bradley is an ace defender so his big scoring game was an added bonus for the Lakers. Bradley, though, isn't playing because of Coronavirus concerns and Rondo is sidelined following thumb surgery.
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| 07-30-20 | Jazz v. Pelicans -2.5 | Top | 106-104 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 19 m | Show |
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I'm going to take an early position on this game by locking into this number not knowing for sure if Zion Williamson is going to play. Even if Williamson is unavailable, I still like the Pelicans to cover this short number. New Orleans has all of its players healthy. The Pelicans still have loads of star power with Brandon Ingram, Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball, who was playing his finest ball when the season shut down. The Pelicans have far more motivation than Utah. The Pelicans can't afford to lose. The Jazz can. Utah already has its playoff ticket punched even if it were to lose every game in Orlando during this reboot. So the Jazz are using these reboot games to tinker and fine tune for down-the-road playoff competition. Winning is not paramount to them at this stage. The Jazz need to find scoring having lost their second-leading scorer, Bojan Bogdanovic, for the season due to a wrist injury. Utah is going to greatly miss Bogdanovic's long-range shooting and marksmanship. There's also the question if Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, their two best players, can get along. They were feuding following the season being postponed after Gobert tested for Coronvirus. Their games do not complement each other. The Pelicans won all of their scrimmages, including impressively defeating the Bucks, 124-103. They have looked crisp and sharp.
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| 07-25-20 | Tigers v. Reds -1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
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Luis Castillo is a serious Cy Young Award candidate and the Reds appear to be one of the most improved teams in baseball. The Tigers remain the Tigers - a team that went 47-114 last year and had the worst offense in the league. Detroit has dropped 23 of its last 31 interleague road games. I don't see Ivan Nova changing that trend. Nova, the Tigers' scheduled starter, doesn't miss many bats. That's dangerous against a slugging Reds team that has added power hitters Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas and is playing in their offensive-friendly ballpark.
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| 03-11-20 | Kansas State v. TCU -1.5 | Top | 53-49 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
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TCU was 2-0 versus Kansas State during the regular season. I don't see that pattern changing in their Big 12 Conferernce Tournament game. The Horned Frogs have played better down the stretch even defeating Baylor three games ago. TCU has a chance to draw an NIT bid with a good tournament showing. Kansas State is not going anywhere with a 10-21 record, 3-15 mark in the Big 12. The Wildcats actually are a little fat and happy having halted a 10-game losing streak with a 79-63 home win against Iowa State this past Saturday on their senior day. TCU is the better and more motivated squad. The Horned Frogs also have revenge incentive. Kansas State defeated them, 70-61, in the Big 12 Tournament last year.
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| 03-10-20 | Nets +11.5 v. Lakers | Top | 104-102 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
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The Nets are a pesky underdog. They have covered five of the last six times getting points and are in an excellent spot to cover the spread again. The Lakers are coming off impressive victories against the Bucks this past Friday and rival Clippers two days ago. The Lakers host the Rockets on Thursday in a much bigger matchup than this one. That makes this a major letdown situation for the Lakers. Brooklyn is playing its second game under interim coach Jacque Vaughn having opened his era with a 110-107 home win against the Bulls this past Sunday. One of Vaughn's changes from former Nets coach Kenny Atkinson was starting and giving more minutes to center DeAndre Jordan at the expense of Jarrett Allen. Jordan helped the Nets outrebound the Bulls, 50-31. He is a better defensive player, rebounder and shot-blocker than Allen. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are going to receive all the attention, but Jordan knows the Lakers well from his many years with the Clippers. Brooklyn has an underrated backcourt, too, with Spencer Dimwiddie and Caris LeVert, who is averaging 28.8 points in his last four games.
Tuesday Free Play Timberwolves plus 12 1/2 at Rockets It has been eight years since the Timberwolves beat the Rockets in Houston. I don't expect Minnesota to end that 13-game road losing streak to the Rockets. I do expect, though, the Timberwolves to hang within single digits. Houston isn't playing nearly well enough to be laying this many points to any NBA opponent. The Rockets are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games losing to the Knicks on the road by two, falling to the Clippers by 15 at home, dropping a road game to the Hornets by nine points and getting blown out at home by 20 points to the Magic two days ago. The Rockets have been cold with their 3-point shooting and are minus-36 rebounding during their losing streak. That's the danger of going with the smallest lineup in the NBA. Houston also could be minus Eric Gordon, its third-leading scorer. He's questionable with a knee injury. The major part of my handicap is a fade on the Rockets. But the Timberwolves do offer a top-10 offense. They have produced at least 115 points in 11 of their last 14 games. D'Angelo Russell is an accomplished scorer and shooting guard Malik Beasley is one of the more underrated players in the league producing nine 20-point performances in 13 games since coming from Denver. Sure there's a chance the Rockets take their frustrations out on the Timberwolves. Keep in mind, though, the Rockets are playing their third game in four days and have a far bigger matchup on deck against the Lakers on Thursday. Houston is not a deep team either. So even in a worst case scenario for the Timberwolves of the Rockets getting things together, the backdoor should swing open if late-game garbage time should occur. |
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| 03-09-20 | Coastal Carolina +5 v. Appalachian State | Top | 65-70 | Push | 0 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
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Coastal Carolina averages nearly 10 more points per game than Appalachian State. That showed when the teams last met 10 days ago at Appalachian State. The Chanticleers won, 84-77, as 4-point road 'dogs. The Chanticleers average nearly 80 points on the road. The Mountaineers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home agmes and 1-8 ATS the past nine times when favored. I really like Coastal Carolina point guard DeVante Jones. I also like the way the Chanticleers stepped up defensively in their last game nipping Texas-Arlington, 63-62, as 5.5-point road 'dogs in their first round Sun Belt Conference Tournament game this past Saturday. The Mountaineers have short revenge, but Coast Carolina certainly isn't going to lack incentive knowing it needs to win this Sun Belt Conference Tourney to qualify for the NCAA Tournament.
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| 03-07-20 | Penn State -7 v. Northwestern | Top | 69-80 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
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Penn State needs to get well and Northwestern is the perfect remedy. The Nittany Lions are in a kill mood after losing four of their last five games, including a 79-71 loss to 17th-ranked Michigan State this past Tuesday. Before meeting the Spartans, the Nittany Lions played at Iowa, hosted Rutgers, played at Indana and hosted Illinois. Now they are dropping way down in class. Northwestern has lost 13 of its last 14 games with its one win during this span coming in overtime against Nebraska when the Cornhuskers missed a mind-boggling 22 of 30 free throws. Each of the Wildcats' last six losses have been by eight or more points. Northwestern is on pace to lose its most Big Ten games in 30 years. The Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games, too. The teams met on Feb. 15 and Penn State had no problem handling Northwestern winning, 77-61.
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| 03-06-20 | Ohio +2 v. Miami-OH | Top | 67-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
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Wrong team favored. Ohio buried Miami of Ohio, 77-46, when it hosted the Redhawks on Feb. 8. I don't see anything that has changed now a month later. Miami of Ohio being home doesn't alter that. The Redhawks are 3-7 in their last 10 games, scoring 65 or fewer points in seven of those matchups. They are last in the Mid-American Conference East Division with a 5-12 record. The Bobcats have held eight of their last 10 opponents to 69 points or fewer, while averaging 71.1 points. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. Jason Preston has been hot for the Bobcats scoring at least 18 points in five of his last six games.
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| 03-05-20 | Portland v. Santa Clara -7 | Top | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 18 h 1 m | Show |
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Portland enters tournament play on one of the worst runs in the nation going 0-14 SU, 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games. The Pilots have scored 65 or fewer points in nine of their last 11 games. Santa Clara averages 75.8 points a game. Santa Clara buried Portland, 85-61, on the road in the first meeting this season on Feb. 1. Santa Clara hosted the Pilots in a rematch on Feb. 29 and just won by five, 73-68. Portland, a bad shooting team, made 10 of 24 from 3-point range and sank 80 percent of its free throws. The Pilots are a 67.5 percent shooting free throw team. Now the stakes are raised with this being a first-round West Coast Conference Tournament game at neutral site Las Vegas. I don't see Portland being able to stay within single digits this time around.
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| 03-04-20 | Florida State v. Notre Dame +2.5 | Top | 73-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
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I like Notre Dame as a home 'dog in revenge. Florida State nipped the Irish, 85-84, as a 9-point home favorite on Jan. 25. The Seminoles may not be completely recovered from a last-second, 70-69, road loss at Clemson this past Saturday. The Irish need a victory to boost their NCAA Tourney chances. The had won three straight until an 84-73 road loss to Wake Forest on Saturday. Notre Dame has never lost to Florida State at Purcell Pavilion. The Irish give up the fewest turnovers per game and have a huge inside advantage thanks to John Mooney, who is tied with Tim Duncan for the single-season record of 15 double-doubles in ACC competition. This has been a 'dog series, too, with the favorite just 1-5 ATS the last six times.
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| 03-03-20 | Cleveland State v. Oakland -7 | Top | 59-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
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Oakland is home for this first-round Horizon League Conference Tournament matchup. The Golden Grizzlies are peaking winning five of their last six. Their scoring has increased since star guard Rashad Williams returned from injury 13 games ago. Oakland has scored 68 or more points in each of its last 10 games. Cleveland State averages 64.3 points and ranks 329th in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Vikings are terrible long-rang shooters, which impacts their ability to come from behind. While Oakland is on the upswing, Cleveland State enters the tournament having lost three of its past four. The Vikings are 0-2 to the Golden Grizzlies this season losing by an average of nine points.
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| 03-02-20 | North Carolina A&T -1 v. South Carolina State | Top | 76-65 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
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I have found one college basketball game I like on the Monday board and it comes from the small Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference. North Carolina AT&T opened the slightest of favorites against South Carolina State. The Aggies are not a good road team, but they still are superior to South Carolina State. The Aggies rolled past the Bulldogs, 78-63, in the first meeting a month ago despite missing 16 of 19 shots from 3-point range. The Aggies are tied for first in the conference with an 11-3 mark. They are 15-14 overall and have won eight of their last 10. South Carolina State is 11-16 overall and 6-9 in conference. The Aggies hold a huge backcourt edge with Kameron Langley and Ronald Jackson. They have helped the Aggies score 71 or more points in 14 of their last 15 games. I find this a very cheap price to get the much better team.
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| 03-01-20 | Pistons +7.5 v. Kings | Top | 100-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
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The Kings just defeated the Grizzlies in Memphis two days ago. That was a big victory for the Kings. Sacramento concluded its four-game road trip going 3-1. Now, though, the Kings could run into an ambush and may also be short-handed. Sacramento may not have its full concentration and motivation returning home to face the lowly Pistons. Sacramento has failed to cover seven of the last 10 times it has been a home favorite. So the Kings are not good in this home favorite role. The Kings could really be in trouble if their two top point guards, De'Aaron Fox and Cory Joseph, both are out. Each is questionable. Fox has been battling an abdominal injury while Joseph has a bruised heel. Detroit has been getting strong contributions lately from youngsters Christian Wood and Brandon Knight along with a steady hand from rejuvenated veteran Derrick Rose. The Pistons are playing loose and had their confidence restored with a 113-111 road win against the Suns on Friday.
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| 03-01-20 | Florida International +5 v. Charlotte | Top | 67-52 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
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This should be a closely contested game as these two teams are nearly even in the Conference USA standings and playing for tournament seeding. Florida International outscores Charlotte by nearly eight points a game and forces the most turnovers in Conference USA. Turning the ball over is a weakness for Charlotte. The 49ers have scored fewer than 69 points in four of their last six games and are going to have problems scoring inside facing the Panthers' ace shot blocker Osasumwen Osaghae. I also like the Panthers having revenge motivation for a blowout loss suffered to the 49ers on Jan. 25.
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| 02-28-20 | Nets -2 v. Hawks | Top | 118-141 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
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The Nets have dominated the Hawks this season winning and covering all three meetings. Brooklyn's winning margin against Atlanta this season is 13 points. Brooklyn is trying to hold on to the No. 7 seed in the East. This is important since the 8th seed would face the Bucks in the first round. The Nets are in stop-the-pain mode having lost two in a row. The Nets are a better team than the Hawks and should be fully focused knowing their next two games are on the road against the Heat and Celtics, which loom as likely losses. I would suggest locking in now if you can because the line would skyrocket up if Trae Young can't play. He's been battling an illness and didn't practice Thursday. |
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| 02-27-20 | Arizona State +4 v. UCLA | Top | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
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Arizona State romped past UCLA, 84-66, at home as six-point favorites three weeks ago. The Bruins have gone 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS since then. But Arizona State also has been playing well winning its past seven games. So I have to get involved taking these points. The Sun Devils can hold their own inside against the Bruins and have top-notch guards in Remy Martin and Alonzo Verge Jr. They both average more than 20 points a game. Martin ranks second in the Pac-12 in scoring while also averaging four assists a game and 1.6 steals.
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| 02-26-20 | Bradley -3 v. Illinois State | Top | 74-71 | Push | 0 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
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Bradley buried Illinois State, 75-63, as 8 1/2-point favorites on Jan. 22. The Braves accomplished that despite not having their two top scorers, Elijah Childs and Darrell Brown. Both are back for the Braves. It was the fourth straight time Bradley has defeated Illinois State. Illinois State plays better at home and is the host team. However, the Braves are the superior team and the spot sets up well for them. Illinois State is off an upset home win against Drake in their Senior Day game. The Redbirds are fat and happy after that win. They also are locked into the No. 9 seed for the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, which opens next week. Bradley still has a shot at being as high as a No. 2 seed. The Braves rank 27th in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. Illinois State ranks last in the MVC in assist-to-turnover ratio and is ninth in the conference in scoring at 65.8 points. So not only is Bradley much better, but the situation is ripe, too, for the Braves. Considering this, I believe this line is way too short as I expect the Braves to win by double-digits again. |
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| 02-25-20 | Thunder -6.5 v. Bulls | Top | 124-122 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 41 m | Show |
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Considering the Bulls' massive amount of injuries, I would rate the Thunder three levels higher than Chicago. So I don't mind laying these road points. Oklahoma City has been a top road team covering 22 of its last 27 away games for 81 percent. The Thunder have covered their last 13 away games! This is the Thunder's first road matchup since the All-Star break. The Thunder have looked great coming off break beating the Nuggets, 113-101, and Spurs, 131-103. They are 3 1/2 games out of being the No. 3 playoff seed in the West. Chicago is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games. The Bulls still are far from healthy being without Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter Jr., Wendell Carter Jr., Kris Dunn and Denzel Valentine. They are extremely thin up front. Zach LaVine and promising rookie Cody White are it for the Bulls right now. The Thunder have a deep rotation, including three very good guards. Oklahoma City is 20-6 ATS the past 26 times versus sub .500 foes. The Bulls have covered only 31 percent of their last 58 home games.
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| 02-24-20 | Magic +3.5 v. Nets | Top | 115-113 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
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Brooklyn is 8-4 in its last 12 games. Orlando is 3-9 in its past 12 games. Note, though, that half of the Nets' victories during this 12-game span were against below .500 foes. The Magic have played a far tougher schedule during their last 12 games drawing the Thunder, Heat twice, Celtics, Bucks, Clippers and Mavericks. The Magic have struggled versus elite teams, but are 8-3 SU and ATS the past 11 times when meeting below .500 foes. This includes a 101-89 home win against the Nets on Jan. 6. Orlando gives up five fewer points than Brooklyn. The Magic have been idle the past three days. This is a huge game for the Magic as they trail the Nets by 2 1/2 games for the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. That's important because the 8th seed would draw the Bucks in the first round.
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| 02-23-20 | Pistons v. Blazers -4.5 | Top | 104-107 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
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I don't want to minimize Portland not having Damian Lillard here. It's a big loss. But Detroit has nothing anymore. The Pistons have gotten rid of Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson and Markieff Morris. The Pistons have lost five in a row. I can't see them being competitive on the road against a borderline Western Conference playoff team that has motivation. The Trail Blazers can't afford to take the Pistons lightly. And they won't minus Lillard and being 3 1/2 games back of the final playoff spot in the West. Even minus Lillard, the Trail Blazers still have the three best players on the court in CJ McCollum, Hassan Whiteside and Carmelo Anthony. Portland is a top-eight scoring team that averages nearly 114 points. Detroit has no firepower anymore. The Pistons are averaging 96.6 points during regulation in their last five games.
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| 02-22-20 | Fresno State v. Nevada -6.5 | Top | 76-78 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
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Nevada-Reno should keep rolling. The Wolf Pack have won four in a row. Their scoring has taken off as the Wolf Pack have produced 86 or more points in six of their last eight games. The Wolf Pack own a strong home-court edge, too, winning 19 straight Mountain West home contests. They are 11-2 at home this season. Fresno State isn't playing nearly as well, isn't as good as Nevada and is a poor road team. The Bulldogs beat Air Force at home in their last game. However, they were 1-3 in their previous four games before that with the lone victory coming in overtime against a pathetic San Jose State squad. The Bulldogs are 4-9 on the road. They don't have the firepower to hang with the Wolf Pack, who are averaging 77.5 points and rank 12th in the nation in 3-point shooting.
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| 02-21-20 | Celtics -6.5 v. Wolves | Top | 127-117 | Win | 100 | 19 h 60 m | Show |
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Boston comes out of the All-Star break winning eight of its last nine. Minnesota is 1-15 in its last 16 games and lost 115-108 at home to the Hornets nine days ago the last time it took the floor. The Celtics won't have Kemba Walker. They will Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward along with a much strong bench than the Timberwolves. Brad Stevens versus Ryan Saunders is a monster coaching mismatch. The Timberwolves will be minus Karl-Anthony Towns. That leaves them D'Angelo Russell, who is learning the Timberwolves' system, and a bunch of garbage, including a very thin front line. This is the first of a four-game road swing for Boston. The Celtics face the Lakers, Trail Blazers and Jazz after this matchup. Stevens knows the Celtics can't screw up this first leg of the road trip. Boston is 5-1-1 ATS the past seven times when playing on three or more days rest. Minnesota is 4-10 ATS the last 14 times in similar situations. The Celtics also have won and covered the past six times they've met the Timberwolves.
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| 02-20-20 | Murray State -4 v. Eastern Illinois | Top | 60-63 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
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Eastern Illinois had won four in a row when it played on the road against Murray State on Jan. 30. Murray State beat the Panthers for the fifth straight time, 73-70. Since that loss, Eastern Illinois has gone 1-4 SU and ATS. The Panthers are not playing well like they were at the end of last month. Murray State is 13-2 in its last 15 games. The Racers are tied with Austin Peay on top of the Ohio Valley Conference. They are clearly better than Eastern Illinois, which is 5-9 in conference and has a losing overall record. The Panthers have failed to cover in their last four home games. The superiority of Murray State is illustrated by the KenPom ratings, which have the Racers ranked 153rd in offensive efficiency and 141st in defensive efficiency compared to Eastern Illinois, which is rated 242nd in offensive efficiency and 249th in defensive efficiency.
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| 02-19-20 | Valparaiso v. Drake -4 | Top | 75-77 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
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Drake has a size advantage with 7-footer Liam Robinson and is a very strong 13-1 at home. Valparaiso is just 4-8 on the road. The Crusaders, however, nipped Illinois State, 65-62, on the road in their last game this past Saturday for their second straight victory. Valparaiso hasn't won three Missouri Valley Conference games in a row all season. The Crusaders are averaging 59.7 points in their last four games. Drake has scored a minium of 71 points in six of its last eight games.
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| 02-18-20 | Nevada -1.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 88-74 | Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
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If you toss out a 73-64 road loss to Boise State, Nevada is averaging 89.6 points during its last six games. New Mexico has surrendered 78 or more points in eight of its last 10 games and five of its past six games. The Wolfpack have a backcourt edge with Jalen Harris and Jazz Johnson. Nevada forces a lot of turnovers and New Mexico commits a lot of turnovers. New Mexico lost its low post edge when double/double machine Carlton Bragg was dismissed from the team in mid-January. The Lobos didn't have Bragg when they were slaughtered by Nevada, 96-74, in Reno on Jan. 25. The Wolfpack are ascending while the Lobos are going downhill. New Mexico is 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS in its last six games. The Wolfpack have won three in a row while covering seven of their last eight.
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| 02-17-20 | Iowa State v. Kansas -16 | Top | 71-91 | Win | 100 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
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Iowa State is real down this season. Poor play on the road and the loss of star guard Tyrese Haliburton for the season are factors the Cyclonces can't overcome. The Cyclones are 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS in true road games. In their last two road games, they lost by 29 at Oklahoma and by 15 at West Virginia. By comparison, Kansas just trounced Oklahoma by 17 points at home this past Saturday and two games ago defeated West Virginia on the road by nine points. That's a good current comparison showing the difference between Iowa State and Kansas and why I feel confident laying this many points with the Jayhawks. Kansas destroyed Iowa State, 79-53, on the road in the first meeting between the teams, too. The Jayhawks are 10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS since losing to Baylor. They trail the Bears by one game for first place in the Big 12 with six games left to play. So I'm not expecting a letup from Kansas especially after Iowa State beat Kansas in the Big 12 Conference Tournament last season. If there's a letdown it probably would come from Iowa State as the Cyclones are coming off an 81-52 home win against Texas from Saturday.
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| 02-16-20 | Memphis +4 v. Connecticut | Top | 61-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
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I'm often attracted to the better team receiving points. That's the case here. Memphis is 17-7 and defeated Connecticut, 70-63, at home on Feb. 1. It was the Tigers' fourth straight victory against the Huskies. Despite their excellent record, Memphis has had a number of close losses. The Tigers have lost to Georgia, SMU and South Florida by a combined nine points. They just lost in overtime at Cincinnati in their last game this past Thursday. The Tigers blew a 10-point lead with six minutes left against the Bearcats. The Huskies are 13-11, but are not playing well losing eight of their last 12. The Huskies are going to have problems controlling Memphis' Precious Achiuwa inside.
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| 02-15-20 | West Virginia v. Baylor -5 | Top | 59-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
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I don't see Baylor's 21-game win streak ending at home to West Virginia. The Bears have too much guard depth for the Mountaineer and flexibility with the ability to win playing either slow or fast. West Virginia has scored just 49 and 59 points during its last two games shooting under 32 percent in each. The Bears have held nine of their last 13 opponents to 57 points or fewer. The Mountaineers have lost and failed to cover in each of their last three road contests losing by 10 points to Oklahoma, by eight to Texas Tech and by 16 to Kansas State.
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| 02-14-20 | Illinois-Chicago +11 v. Wright State | Top | 58-75 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
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Wright State is on top of the Horizon League standings at 11-2, while Illinois-Chicago is 7-6. But that doesn't mean Wright State is strong as a favorite. In fact, the Raiders are most decidedly not going 4-11-1 ATS as favorites of five points or more. Illinois-Chicago is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games. The Flames are road tested, too, winning four of their past six away games with the two losses coming by a combined three points. This has been a 'dog series with the underdog covering four of the last five times. That has meant Illinois-Chicago. The Flames have won and covered the past three times versus Wright State, including 76-72 at home this season as six-point 'dogs.
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| 02-14-20 | Fairfield +3 v. Marist | Top | 57-53 | Win | 100 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
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I have found an underdog spot I like between two lower tier teams from the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Fairfield and Marist are two of the lowest-scoring teams in the nation. Fairfield averages 59.7 points. Marist averages 60.7 points. Fairfield has the better defense ranking 45th in the nation in scoring defense. The Stags have gone 7-5 in their last 12 games. They have proven themselves away from home with a neutral floor victory against Texas A&M and road win against Oakland. Marist is 6-15 on the season. The Red Foxes have been favored just twice this season, both times back in November. They lost both of those games straight-up.
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| 02-13-20 | Arizona v. California +10 | Top | 68-52 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
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Arizona is highly talented. The Wildcats also are widely inconsistent and don't play that well on the road where they have failed to cover 10 of the past 14 times. California is a bad road team, but 10-3 at Haas Pavilion. The Golden Bears have covered five in a row at home and own Pac-12 home victories against Washington, Stanford and Oregon State. Point guard Paris Austin has stepped up his play recently for the Bears, who also have been clamping down defensively holding their last six foes to an average of 62.5 points a game. The Wildcats are coming off their worst shooting game of the season, a 65-52 home loss to UCLA this past Saturday. Cal's slow play can frustrate the Wildcats.
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| 02-12-20 | Cal-Irvine -4 v. Cal-Riverside | Top | 63-59 | Push | 0 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
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Cal Irvine is the best team in the Big West Conference. The Anteaters have covered 68 percent of the time during the past 26 instances they have been favored. I want them going for me in this short point spread range off a loss and against a mediocre UC Riverside squad, who has just one player averaging in double figures. That's Arinze Chidom and he's scores 11.1 points a game. The Anteaters had a four-game win streak snapped by UC Santa Barbara this past Saturday. The Highlanders have lost five of their last seven games. They are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when taking on an above .500 opponent. They also have failed to cover four of the past five times as a home 'dog. Cal Irvine beat the Highlanders by 16 points when the teams met earlier this season.
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| 02-11-20 | Bulls v. Wizards -2.5 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
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Down four of their five best players, it's no wonder the Bulls have lost five in a row. Chicago is missing injured Lauri Markkanen, Kris Dunn, Otto Porter and Wendall Carter. Now the Bulls have to face a below-the-radar Wizards squad that has won seven of their last 10 home games. Washington has gotten key role players Rui Hachimura, Davis Bertans and Mo Wagner healthy and improved itself at the trade deadline picking up Shabazz Napier. The Wizards have beaten far better teams than the Bulls during their last 10 home contests, including knocking off the Mavericks, Nuggets and Celtics. Washington won't lack motivation either after blowing a 12-point lead at home in a loss to the Grizzlies this past Sunday. The Bulls are 4-8-1 ATS the past 13 times when taking points. Chicago averages nine fewer points per game than Washington.
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| 02-11-20 | Northern Illinois +8 v. Ball State | Top | 59-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
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Points really matter here as this figures to be a grind-out type of matchup as evidenced by the total. Northern Illinois has won five in a row. The Huskies have held their past five opponents to an average of 56.2 points a game. Ball State is an inconsistent shooting team and not as good from the foul line as Northern Illinois. The Cardinals have allowed 67 or more points in three of their last five games and are 6-14 ATS the past 20 times when going against foes with a winning record. The Huskies are 9-2 ATS, by contrast, when playing an above .500 opponent. They also have covered in their last five road contests. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog going 5-0-1 ATS in the past six meetings.
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| 02-10-20 | Baylor -6 v. Texas | Top | 52-45 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
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Probably some team is going to end top-ranked Baylor's win streak, which sits at 20 in a row. But I highly doubt Texas is going to be that team. The Longhorns don't have it this season. They just blew a 31-19 halftime lead at home to Texas Tech on Saturday losing, 62-57. Texas also lost a pair of starters to injuries in that game, Kai Jones and Jase Febres. Neither is expected to play today. Both are guards. Jones is Texas' second-leading scorer although none of its players average more than 13 points a game. Baylor is 7-0 in true road games. The Bears also rolled past the Longhorns, 59-44, at home on Jan. 4. Baylor whipped Texas by 15 points in that game despite being outshot from the floor and making just 5-of-15 free throws. It was the eighth time in the last nine meetings Baylor has beaten Texas.
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| 02-09-20 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin -1.5 | Top | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
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Wisconsin is very strong at home as evidenced by its 10-1 mark in Madison. The Badgers do their best at home against strong opponents. I'm expecting a focused, strong effort from the Badgers after they suffered an embarrassing, 70-52, road loss to Minnesota this past Wednesday after knocking off Michigan State at home in their previous game. The Badgers shot a season-low 28.4 percent from the floor against the Gophers. The Badgers shot just 38 percent from the field in the first meeting this season against Ohio State. Wisconsin missed 17 of 23 shots from 3-point range in that game yet still won, 61-57, on the road despite being outshot. Ohio State is coming off a 61-58 road win against Michigan this past Tuesday. I don't see the Buckeyes pulling off consecutive away victories against the Wolverines and Badgers.
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| 02-08-20 | Gonzaga -6 v. St. Mary's | Top | 90-60 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
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Gonzaga is the class of the West Coast Conference and I expect the Bulldogs to get the job done against the Gaels. Saint Mary's is just 6-13 ATS in its last 19 home games. The Gaels also have been a poor underdog going 4-12 ATS the past 16 times in that role. Gonzaga should be a lot sharper than it was when it beat Loyola Marymount this past Thursday, 85-67. The Bulldogs missed 14 of 15 shots from 3-point range in that victory. That was a fluke, though, as the Bulldogs were leading the nation in 3-point shooting previous to that. The Gaels don't have the firepower and scoring depth Gonzaga does. The Bulldogs were averaging 12 more points per game than St. Mary's, leading the nation in scoring and ranking No. 2 in field goal percentage. The Bulldogs haven't forgotten losing to Saint Mary's in the WCC tourney last season. They have owned the Gaels beating them 15 of the past 19 times.
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| All Sports Archive | |||||||
| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
| 11-29-20 | Browns -7 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-25 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
| 11-27-20 | Notre Dame -4.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 48 h 48 m | Show |
| 11-26-20 | Utah State v. South Dakota State +2.5 | Top | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
| 11-25-20 | Eastern Illinois +19.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 67-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
| 11-22-20 | Chiefs -6.5 v. Raiders | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -100 | 88 h 31 m | Show |
| 11-21-20 | Florida International +7.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 21-38 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
| 11-20-20 | Syracuse +20 v. Louisville | Top | 0-30 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
| 11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 40 h 27 m | Show |
| 11-15-20 | Eagles -3 v. Giants | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -114 | 124 h 15 m | Show |
| 11-14-20 | Notre Dame v. Boston College +14 | Top | 45-31 | Push | 0 | 106 h 5 m | Show |
| 11-13-20 | Iowa v. Minnesota +3.5 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -103 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
| 11-12-20 | Colts +1 v. Titans | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
| 11-11-20 | Toledo +3 v. Western Michigan | Top | 38-41 | Push | 0 | 17 h 21 m | Show |
| 11-10-20 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -9.5 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
| 11-09-20 | Patriots v. Jets +10 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
| 11-06-20 | San Jose State v. San Diego State -9 | Top | 28-17 | Loss | -106 | 42 h 47 m | Show |
| 11-05-20 | Packers -7 v. 49ers | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
| 11-04-20 | Buffalo -10 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 49-30 | Win | 100 | 56 h 45 m | Show |
| 11-01-20 | Vikings v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -112 | 150 h 60 m | Show |
| 10-30-20 | Minnesota -19 v. Maryland | Top | 44-45 | Loss | -112 | 58 h 53 m | Show |
| 10-23-20 | UL-Lafayette v. UAB +3 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
| 10-20-20 | Rays +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -129 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
| 10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +1.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -109 | 85 h 22 m | Show |
| 10-17-20 | Central Florida -2.5 v. Memphis | Top | 49-50 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
| 10-15-20 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State -3 | Top | 52-59 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
| 10-14-20 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Braves | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
| 10-10-20 | Kansas State +9 v. TCU | Top | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
| 10-10-20 | Arkansas v. Auburn -13.5 | Top | 28-30 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
| 10-04-20 | Bills -2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 125 h 14 m | Show |
| 10-03-20 | Oklahoma -7 v. Iowa State | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 56 m | Show |
| 10-01-20 | Broncos +2 v. Jets | Top | 37-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
| 09-30-20 | Heat +5 v. Lakers | Top | 98-116 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 39 m | Show |
| 09-29-20 | Blue Jays v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 110 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
| 09-27-20 | Raiders v. Patriots -6 | Top | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 76 h 53 m | Show |
| 09-23-20 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
| 09-20-20 | Chiefs -8.5 v. Chargers | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -106 | 86 h 27 m | Show |
| 09-19-20 | Central Florida -7.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 49-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 54 m | Show |
| 09-18-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 56 h 49 m | Show |
| 09-17-20 | Bengals +6 v. Browns | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 43 h 16 m | Show |
| 09-16-20 | Diamondbacks v. Angels -1.5 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
| 09-13-20 | Cowboys v. Rams +3 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 108 h 19 m | Show |
| 09-12-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 96-119 | Win | 101 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
| 09-09-20 | Raptors +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
| 09-06-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
| 09-05-20 | Raptors v. Celtics +1 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -106 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
| 09-04-20 | Rockets +6.5 v. Lakers | Top | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
| 08-31-20 | Heat +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 115-104 | Win | 100 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
| 08-30-20 | Clippers v. Mavs +10.5 | Top | 111-97 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
| 08-28-20 | Mariners +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
| 08-25-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 111-154 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
| 08-24-20 | Lakers -7.5 v. Blazers | Top | 135-115 | Win | 100 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
| 08-22-20 | Lakers -7 v. Blazers | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
| 08-21-20 | Celtics -5 v. 76ers | Top | 102-94 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
| 08-20-20 | Thunder +3 v. Rockets | Top | 98-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
| 08-19-20 | Mavs +6.5 v. Clippers | Top | 127-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
| 08-18-20 | Magic v. Bucks -12 | Top | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
| 08-17-20 | 76ers v. Celtics -5.5 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
| 08-15-20 | Rangers v. Rockies -1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
| 08-08-20 | Orioles v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
| 08-03-20 | Phillies v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
| 08-02-20 | Mavs -5.5 v. Suns | Top | 115-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
| 08-01-20 | 76ers v. Pacers +5.5 | Top | 121-127 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
| 07-31-20 | Kings v. Spurs +3.5 | Top | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
| 07-30-20 | Clippers +3 v. Lakers | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 137 h 28 m | Show |
| 07-30-20 | Jazz v. Pelicans -2.5 | Top | 106-104 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 19 m | Show |
| 07-25-20 | Tigers v. Reds -1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
| 03-11-20 | Kansas State v. TCU -1.5 | Top | 53-49 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
| 03-10-20 | Nets +11.5 v. Lakers | Top | 104-102 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
| 03-09-20 | Coastal Carolina +5 v. Appalachian State | Top | 65-70 | Push | 0 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
| 03-07-20 | Penn State -7 v. Northwestern | Top | 69-80 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
| 03-06-20 | Ohio +2 v. Miami-OH | Top | 67-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
| 03-05-20 | Portland v. Santa Clara -7 | Top | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 18 h 1 m | Show |
| 03-04-20 | Florida State v. Notre Dame +2.5 | Top | 73-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
| 03-03-20 | Cleveland State v. Oakland -7 | Top | 59-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
| 03-02-20 | North Carolina A&T -1 v. South Carolina State | Top | 76-65 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
| 03-01-20 | Pistons +7.5 v. Kings | Top | 100-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
| 03-01-20 | Florida International +5 v. Charlotte | Top | 67-52 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
| 02-28-20 | Nets -2 v. Hawks | Top | 118-141 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
| 02-27-20 | Arizona State +4 v. UCLA | Top | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
| 02-26-20 | Bradley -3 v. Illinois State | Top | 74-71 | Push | 0 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
| 02-25-20 | Thunder -6.5 v. Bulls | Top | 124-122 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 41 m | Show |
| 02-24-20 | Magic +3.5 v. Nets | Top | 115-113 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
| 02-23-20 | Pistons v. Blazers -4.5 | Top | 104-107 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
| 02-22-20 | Fresno State v. Nevada -6.5 | Top | 76-78 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
| 02-21-20 | Celtics -6.5 v. Wolves | Top | 127-117 | Win | 100 | 19 h 60 m | Show |
| 02-20-20 | Murray State -4 v. Eastern Illinois | Top | 60-63 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
| 02-19-20 | Valparaiso v. Drake -4 | Top | 75-77 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
| 02-18-20 | Nevada -1.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 88-74 | Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
| 02-17-20 | Iowa State v. Kansas -16 | Top | 71-91 | Win | 100 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
| 02-16-20 | Memphis +4 v. Connecticut | Top | 61-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
| 02-15-20 | West Virginia v. Baylor -5 | Top | 59-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
| 02-14-20 | Illinois-Chicago +11 v. Wright State | Top | 58-75 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
| 02-14-20 | Fairfield +3 v. Marist | Top | 57-53 | Win | 100 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
| 02-13-20 | Arizona v. California +10 | Top | 68-52 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
| 02-12-20 | Cal-Irvine -4 v. Cal-Riverside | Top | 63-59 | Push | 0 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
| 02-11-20 | Bulls v. Wizards -2.5 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
| 02-11-20 | Northern Illinois +8 v. Ball State | Top | 59-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
| 02-10-20 | Baylor -6 v. Texas | Top | 52-45 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
| 02-09-20 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin -1.5 | Top | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
| 02-08-20 | Gonzaga -6 v. St. Mary's | Top | 90-60 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
