This truly has been the season in hell for Michigan State and Mark Dantonio. It's the first time in 25 years the Spartans have dropped five games in a row.
Before the season began, oddsmakers lined this game as Michigan minus four. Now look at the spread! Sure Jim Harbaugh has resurrected Michigan and Michigan State may be the most disappointing team in the nation along with Notre Dame. 
But the Spartans still have great athletes and Dantonio hasn't all of a sudden become a lousy coach. If there is one time for the rest of this season that Michigan State gets up for a game this will be that time.
The Spartans have beaten the Wolverines seven of nine times under Dantonio, including the past five. Michigan is 0-8 ATS the past eight times these two teams have met.
Michigan State usually is at its best in a 'dog role. Since the middle of the 2011 season, the Spartans are 12-2-1 ATS when catching points. 
Michigan has played only one road game - and that was against pathetic 2-6 Rutgers. The Wolverines play their home games on FieldTurf. This game is on a grass field. The Wolverines are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on grass. 

Detroit has won and covered in its last six games versus the Magic, winning those games by an average of 15.5 points per game. 
But now the Magic have retooled with a new coach and a more physical frontcourt. Will it make a difference? Maybe down the road, but not here. 
This is Orlando's second game. The Magic have seven new players. It's going to take them a while to get in sync. The Magic didn't look good in their opener, a 108-96 home loss to Miami that no longer has Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh and Luol Deng. 
The Pistons are off a bad loss, too, opening with a 109-91 road defeat to Toronto. Fiery Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy ripped his team's lack of defense and rebounding in that game. Look for the Pistons to come back strong at home where they covered 63 percent of the time last season. 

The Wizards are dangerous when motivated and their star backcourt is healthy. Both factors are in play here.
The Randy Wittman era mercifully ended in Washington. New coach Scott Brooks is an upgrade as the Wizards have the talent to not only make the playoffs - which they embarrassingly failed to do last season - but win a playoff series or two. That's because they have a backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal. Wall is an elite point guard while Beal is a tremendous talent who has had trouble staying healthy. He averaged 17.4 points last season in 55 games and starts this season at 100 percent. 
The Wizards should get improvement from young players Otto Porter and Kelly Oubre Jr. I'm expecting a better year, too, from big man Marcin Gortat. 
The Hawks lost Al Horford and gained way past-his-prime Dwight Howard. That's a downgrade. Atlanta also has a major question at point guard entrusting Dennis Schroder to replace departed All-Star Jeff Teague. Schroder is a wild card. He's backed up by unheralded Malcom Delaney. I give the Wizards a huge backcourt check mark in this matchup. 

Miami has won six of its last seven season-openers, including the past five. That's a nice history going into this matchup, but no longer do the Heat have any of their Big Three as LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh are all gone. 
Still, look for the Heat to make it six straight season-opening victories. Miami is down. but not as much as perceived. Goran Dragic is good and in line for his best season with Wade gone to the Bulls. Hassan Whiteside is a top-six big man. Justice Winslow holds a lot of promise. The Heat have depth and a system in place. Eric Spoelstra has been the head coach since 2008. 
Orlando holds promise, but is in transition right now. The Magic have a new coach, Frank Vogel, and are breaking in seven new players. The Heat have an identity. The Magic are seeking one.
Vogel is changing the Magic installing a slowdown, smashmouth style. It's going to take time for this system to work. Orlando went 2-5 in preseason. One of those defeats was 107-77 to the Heat in Miami. Whiteside and Winslow - two of Miami's three best players - didn't even play. The Magic aren't going to be able to dominate the boards against Whiteside, who led the league in blocks and was No. 3 in rebounding last season. 
Note, too, that the Magic won't have physical big man Bismack Biyombo for this game. He's serving a one-game suspension for flagrant fouls committed accumulated during last season's playoffs when he played for the Raptors. 

Oddsmakers are high on Utah projecting the Jazz to win 47 1/2 games. Utah was 40-42 last season. Utah could very well be improved, but this isn't the time to jump on the Jazz.
The Jazz are trying to combine youth with a number of imported veterans, including point guard George Hill, Boris Diaw and Joe Johnson. It's going to take time for the mix to get in sync. Things are made far worse for Utah because of injuries. Out until at least mid-November is the Jazz's best offensive player, Gordon Hayward. He has a broken finger. Guard and sixth man Alec Burks is out, too, with a knee injury and big man Derrick Favors is questionable with a knee injury. 
Those three players averaged close to a combined 50 points per game and all were a key part of Quin Snyder's rotation. If the oddsmaker knew now what he didn't know a month ago, Utah's win total would have been lower. This is what Hill was quoted as saying about his team: "It's tough because we don't have a full roster right now. And without a full roster, it's kind of hard to see exactly where we're at. Our focus right now is to get everybody healthy. ..." 
The Trail Blazers are poised to start fast with nearly everyone back from their 44-win team of a year ago, a team that reached the second round of the playoffs by beating the Clippers and then proved competitive against the Warriors. 
Portland holds a huge backcourt edge with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. The Trail Blazers' backcourt was upgraded, too, with swingman Evan Turner joining the team.
The two teams just met in a dress rehearsal this past Wednesday at Salt Lake City. Portland won, 88-84, on the road. The Trail Blazers won despite getting only eight free throw attempts compared to the Jazz making 19 of 23 free throws. 
Portland beat Utah in three of four regular season meetings last season. Lillard didn't play in the game the Trail Blazers lost to the Jazz. Portland is 5-1 SU the past six times hosting Utah, going 2-0 last season winning by an average of nine points. 

The Falcons are playing well, but face both a physical and mental letdown returning home from back-to-back road games against the bruising Broncos and Seahawks. 
This game figures to be a shootout between Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan. The Chargers are 2-4, but could be undefeated with better luck. They have outscored their opponents by 18 points. So their record is highly misleading.
The Chargers' confidence is up, though, after they beat the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos. That occurred last Thursday so the Chargers have had ample time to rest and prepare. Rivers can definitely take advantage of a soft Falcons defense that has multiple injuries at linebacker and doesn't rush the passer well.
San Diego has covered 20 of the last 29 times it has been a road 'dog. Mike McCoy has been under fire as Chargers head coach, but his team has covered eight of their past 10 games. 

West Virginia has been a nice surprise, but I like TCU here. I'm not sold on West Virginia's defense, nor the Mountaineers' ability to control the trenches. The Horned Frogs have 21 sacks.  
The line is too high here based somewhat on the Mountaineers' 48-17 road victory against Texas Tech last week. That was West Virginia's best game of the season. The Mountaineers will be hard-pressed to duplicate that effort. They have failed to cover seven of the last eight times they've gone against an above .500 foe. 
TCU averages 40.2 points per game. The Horned Frogs have a balanced offense and a pair of standout defensive players in linebackers Ty Summers and Travin Howard. 
It's significant that the Horned Frogs were idle last week. Not only are they 12-1 following a bye, but they could have key reinforcements playing in this game.
There is optimism at TCU that the Horned Frogs will have star receiver and kick returner KaVontae Turpin back from a knee injury plus center Austin Schlottmann returning from a foot injury. The Horned Frogs could further be bolstered by having cornerback Julius Lewis and offensive lineman Trey Elliott available for the first time this season. Both have missed the season due to injuries.  

This line is off. These teams aren't even, which the oddsmaker is insinuating opening the game Houston minus 3 with home-field usually worth a field goal. 
The Texans have a strong defense. They rank fifth in fewest yards allowed and are No. 1 in pass defense. 
The Colts have a defense for the ages - the dark ages. It's one of their worst ever, which is saying a lot. Indy just allowed the Bears and backup quarterback Brian Hoyer to roll up 522 yards in a six-point home win that was closer than the score may indicate. 
The Texans beat the Bears by nine points opening week and the Bears have regressed since then due to multiple injuries. 
I'm not a fan of Brock Osweiler. But the Texans' offensive line should be much improved with the return of left tackle Duane Brown. Osweiler has a top-five wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins and a solid running back in Lamar Miller. 
The Colts are giving up 29.6 points a game, fourth-worst in the NFL, and are 30th in yards given up. 
Indy wins games by outscoring opponents in shootouts. The Colts have been fortunate to draw below average defenses in four of their first five games. Their offensive line is inexperienced and can't protect Andrew Luck, who already has been sacked 20 times. The Texans have a strong pass rush even without injured J.J. Watt with emerging stars Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus. 
Look for the Texans to dominate both lines of scrimmage - and the game. 

I like the Chiefs a lot here for three main reasons: They are the superior team. The situation. And the line value with the Raiders opening the favorite. 
Oakland is much improved. Granted. But the Chiefs have won five of the past six meetings. They have the better defense and superior ground attack. Derek Carr is an emerging star. Alex Smith wins, though. The Chiefs are 13-3 in their last 16 games with Smith behind center. 
The Raiders are facing a triple whammy here. They are fat and happy riding a three-game winning streak, including holding off San Diego this past Sunday for a big AFC West Division victory. 
The Chiefs are off their worst loss since Andy Reid took over - an embarrassing 43-14 nationally televised Sunday night loss to the Steelers. That was two weeks ago. The Chiefs were idle last week. So they will have had two weeks to stew about that defeat. 
No coach is better off a bye than Reid. His Eagles and Chiefs teams are 15-2 after being idle the week before. That's 88 percent for a 17-game sampling. 
Oakland has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 home contests. The Raiders are 7-23 ATS the past 30 times laying points, including failing to cover the past five times they've been home chalk. 
The Raiders may not have their best running back, Latavius Murray, again. The Chiefs' star running back, Jamaal Charles, should be ready now for full-time duty. Smith has weapons with Charles, Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin. The Raiders give up the most total yards and passing yards in the NFL. They also rank 27th in run defense. 

Colorado isn't used to be in this lofty role - and the Buffaloes don't deserve to be nearly two touchdowns favorite here against a Pac-12 foe that isn't any less talented, bigger and faster than they are.  
The Sun Devils have dominated this series winning the past seven times, covering six of the seven. 
Arizona State holds a special teams edge and can stop Colorado's ground attack. The Sun Devils rank fifth nationally in run defense and first in the Pac-12. 
The Sun Devils average 39.7 points and 434.8 yards per game. So they will present a supreme challenge to the Buffaloes especially with starting quarterback Manny Wilkins able to play. 

San Diego has lost its last 10 AFC West matchups. I don't see that streak ending with this game. 
The Chargers are banged-up in the secondary - missing two of their three best cornerbacks in Jason Verrett and Brandon Flowers - and Philip Rivers doesn't have several of his key offensive weapons, including Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead. The Chargers' offensive line is going to have problems handling Von Miller, who already has 6 1/2 sacks, and the rest of the Denver pass rush. 
The Falcons were able to run on the Chargers. I don't see the Chargers doing that. Melvin Gordon has found the end zone this year, but he's far from an elite running back. 
Denver is fuming from losing at home to Atlanta. The Broncos defense did their job even though it permitted more than 20 points for the first time in 10 games. The Broncos were done in by the inexperience of rookie quarterback Paxton Lynch starting his first NFL game. Denver's blocking was below par, too, minus right tackle Donald Stephenson and tight end Virgil Green.
Word is both Stephenson and Green will be ready for Thursday game. Another key is that regular quarterback Trevor Siemian also will be ready. 
Broncos coach Gary Kubiak is expected to miss the game, hospitalized because of complex migraines. I see this as even more incentive for the Broncos to win one for their coach especially coming off a home loss. 
San Diego may have the worst home field advantage of any team in the league. The Chargers find ways to lose nearly every week having blown leads to the Chiefs, Colts and Saints. Now they draw the defending champs, a team that really knows how to win. 

The Chargers are 1-3, but have outscored their opponents by 13 points. The Raiders are 3-1 and have outscored their foes by two points.
The Chargers have led by double-digits at halftime in three of their games. They have blown three fourth-quarter leads. They are a frustrated bunch who are averaging more than 30 points a game and have a decent secondary.
Philip Rivers has a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and is on pace to throw for 4,440 yards. He's having another splendid season. Melvin Gordon has rushed for six touchdowns. The Chargers will get their points against a Raiders defense that ranks in the bottom-three in total yards, rush yards and pass yards. 
The Raiders are returning from their third long trip in four weeks. They aren't as desperate as the Chargers, who also have double-revenge motivation. 

Life as an independent isn't easy these days. BYU is experiencing that. The Cougars have played one of the toughest schedules in the country and now play in the Eastern Time Zone for the second time in two weeks. 
The timing and opponent are especially bad for BYU. Michigan State not only is in circle-the-wagons mode - 0-2 in the Big Ten for the first time since 2007 following consecutive losses to Wisconsin and Indiana - but causes a matchup nightmare problem for the Cougars. 
The Spartans always have a strong run defense under Mark Dantonio. That's the case again this season as the Spartans rank 15th versus the run. BYU just surrendered 53 points at home to Toledo of the Mid-American Conference. The Cougars, inconsistent all season, rank 97th in total defense. They rely on their running spearheaded by Jamaal Williams. The Spartans are going to key on him and quarterback Taysom Hill isn't a strong enough passer to carry the Cougars in this extremely tough road setting. Hill needs to be set up by Williams not the only way around. 
Not only have the Cougars been traveling the country, but they've yet to have a bye. They get the chance to host a rare SEC foe next Friday when Mississippi State visits Provo in a game that will be televised by ESPN. That's the game the Cougars will be pointing to. 
It's Michigan State, the defending Big Ten champion, that has the urgency this week. The Spartans have the talent, desire and right scheduling setup to beat the Cougars by double-digits. 

Forget the records here that show Ottawa leading the Eastern Division with a 6-6 record and Saskatchewan last in the Western Division at 3-10. 
Saskatchewan plays in the much superior Western Division and is coming off two straight victories. The Roughriders have covered in their last five games. They still are mathematically alive for a playoff spot. 
Ottawa has failed to cover in seven of its last nine games going 3-6 straight-up. The Redblacks have yet to cover in five meetings versus Western Conference foes. They also are 1-5 ATS at home. 
The Roughriders' offense has picked up behind quarterback Darian Durant and their defense has surrendered less than 20 points per game during their last three games. Roughriders coach Chris Jones has a strong defensive mastermind reputation. His team finally is buying into his intricate defensive system. 
Ottawa is giving up 27.3 points per game. The Redblacks win with offense, but are down perhaps their best offensive lineman, left tackle SirVincent Rogers. The Roughriders also have had two weeks to prepare being idle last week. 
Saskatchewan won the first meeting, 30-29, back in Week 5 as a six-point underdog. The timing is ripe for the Roughriders to pull a similar upset. 

Maybe the oddsmaker hasn't caught on yet. But the Vikings' home field advantage, with their new indoor $16 billion stadium, is worth four points right there and these teams are not even. The Vikings are much better.
So I'm locking into this point spread now as I envision it to go higher during the week when more people start playing attention.
The Vikings are a physical, disciplined team with excellent coaching and a defense that is becoming more dominant week to week, which isn't surprising given the tremendous talent at each position. The Vikings have held the Titans to 16 points, the Packers to 14 points and Panthers to 10 points. 
Since Mike Zimmer came on board - and hiring a top level staff to assist him - the Vikings have covered an amazing 75 percent of their games going 27-9 ATS! 
Minnesota is better off with the more accurate and downfield attacker Sam Bradford at quarterback than it was when Teddy Bridgewater was under center. Adrian Peterson's injury is overrated. He was averaging 1.6 yards per carry. The Vikings are fine with Jerrick McKinnon and Matt Asiata replacing Peterson. They did the job two years ago when Peterson missed the season and are better receiving targets out of the backfield than Peterson. 
The Giants have upgraded their defense, but it doesn't compare to Minnesota's. The Giants remain turnover and penalty-prone. Ben McAdoo can't compare to Zimmer as a head coach. The Giants just lost Shane Vereen for the season further weakening an already well below average ground attack. 

Carolina already has more regular season losses than it did during last year's regular season. That's because the Panthers have gone against two of the top defenses in the NFL - Broncos and Vikings. 
The Panthers actually could be better offensively than a year ago with Kelvin Benjamin in the lineup. Carolina is stepping way down in class defensively taking on the Falcons. The Panthers are at their best when they can bully and dominate the lines of scrimmage. They couldn't do that versus the Broncos and Vikings. They can against the finesse Falcons.
Carolina whipped the Falcons, 38-0, at home last season. But the Panthers won't forget losing 20-13 at Atlanta last season for their lone regular season defeat. This is a revenge spot for the Panthers and they catch the Falcons on a short week.
Even with the Falcons beating the defenseless Saints this past Monday, Atlanta still has covered just four of its last 15 games. Second-year head Falcons coach Dan Quinn hasn't been able to fix a leaky defense, nor upgrade a weak pass rush. 
Matt Ryan is having a big season so far and does play better in a dome setting, which this is. But the Falcons' two top wider receivers are both less than 100 percent. 

There is more than a touchdown class difference here factoring in Cincinnati's home field advantage. This is made more by the Dolphins traveling on a short week and their multiple injuries. 
Miami was life and death with the Browns at home this past Sunday. It took three missed field goals by the Browns, including one at the end of regulation, that allowed the Dolphins to escape with an overtime victory. 
Cincinnati is one of the best all around teams in the NFL. The Bengals protect their home-field well, too, only losing five times during their last 25 games at Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals are off a disappointing home loss, though, to the Broncos. So there is little chance that they'll take the Dolphins for granted, or look past them. Even with that loss to Denver, Cincinnati still is 13-5-2 ATS in its past 20 games. 
The Bengals' defense has been solid, rather than outstanding. But look for the Bengals' defensive level to be raised a notch with the return from suspension of star linebacker and defensive leader Vontaze Burfict. 
The Dolphins are weak defensively in their back seven and could be without all three of their starting linebackers. Miami is vulnerable to A.J. Green and in big trouble offensively with their top runner, Arian Foster, out again and a cluster injury problem in the offensive line. 
Miami very well could be starting third-string center Kraig Urbik. Starting center Mike Pouncey is out at least another week with a hip injury and backup Anthony Steen suffered a high ankle sprain against the Browns. Also out for the Dolphins is starting tight end Jordan Cameron with a concussion. 
The combination of the Bengals' talent edge, home field advantage that is magnified by a short week and the many Miami injuries make the Bengals a solid play as they should win by double-digits. 

Sitting one game behind the Giants for the second wild-card spot in the National League, the Cardinals desperately need to win this home game. The Reds embarrassed the Cardinals, 15-2, on Monday night. 
I see the Cardinals coming back today. So does the oddsmaker because he's opened the Cardinals more than a 2-to-1 favorite to win. So to get around this high juice while keeping the Cardinals in play I'm making this a run line play. The Cardinals have won by more than one run during nine of their last 11 victories. They have the right motivation and pitching matchup to win big here.
Reds starter rookie Robert Stephenson returned to the majors early this month. He's made four starts since then and hasn't won. He's given up four runs in each of his last three starts going less than four innings in two of them. Stephenson has a 5.59 ERA. The Reds' bullpen ranks among the worst in baseball. 
The Cardinals are going with veteran Adam Wainwright, who is pitching on extra rest. St. Louis is 6-0 the past six times Wainwright has pitched on six days rest. 

I want desperate teams, especially taking this many points in a division matchup. It's circle-the-wagons time for the 0-2 Redskins.
This has been an underdog series with the 'dog getting the money eight of the last 11 times. 
The Giants are 2-0 having eked out last-minute victories against the Cowboys and Saints by a combined four points. New York's defense is much improved from a year ago courtesy of a $200 million spending spree. But it's far from dominant and the Giants offense has yet to impress averaging 18 points a game. The Giants have a below average ground attack.
Kirk Cousins isn't Pro Bowl caliber. But he's also better than what he has shown so far this season. He has excellent receiving weapons - especially with a matchup of Jordan Reed against the Giants mediocre linebackers - and has received excellent pass protection. The Giants have a below average pass rush.
The Redskins have moved the ball they've just had trouble putting up touchdowns in the red zone. That should change with better play-calling, including not overusing fade routes that don't work. 
Josh Norman shores up the Redskins' secondary and the coaching staff finally has figured out to move Norman around. That means he's likely to be shadowing Odell Beckham Jr. Norman got inside Beckham's head last season. He's probably the cornerback that Beckham least likes to face. 

I haven't been impressed with Baylor, which has played weak competition and didn't cover any of its three games. Facing Northwestern State, SMU and Rice is not a good non-conference buildup to stepping up against Oklahoma State. It's not stepping out to say the Bears played the weakest non-conference schedule of any Big 12 team.
Baylor's great defensive stats are skewed by this easy schedule. Oklahoma State quarterback Mason Rudolph and and wide receiver James Washington can hurt any defense. An added plus for the Cowboys would be if safety Orion Stewart can't play after injuring his ribs against Rice last week and if cornerback Ryan Reid has to miss a second straight week after sustaining a high ankle sprain versus SMU. 
I believe Baylor quarterback Seth Russell is a real downgrade from recent Baylor quarterbacks. The Bears have had to endure a lot of uncertainty and a coaching change due to recent scandals. It has hurt their recruiting. This is their first big test in the post Art Briles era and I can't see the Bears winning by more than a touchdown against this high quality opponent that has a real chip on its shoulder from getting ripped off against Central Michigan two weeks ago on an extra play that shouldn't have been allowed. 

The wheels are coming off USC under Clay Helton. The Trojans are 1-4 since he was named permanent coach during last season. The Trojans have bad chemistry and face a Utah squad big on revenge after losing to the Trojans, 42-24, last year. The Utes were 6-0 entering that game, ranked seventh in the country. 
The Trojans have some talented playmakers, but they're wasted in a dysfunctional program. Playing a day earlier than usual and at always-tough Rice-Eccles Stadium are big disadvantages for the Trojans. 
USC was pounded by Alabama losing by 46 points. The Trojans already have made a quarterback change. I can't see the Trojans having the necessary focus and discipline to win this Pac-12 road game. They are off a bad road loss to Stanford, a very physical opponent, and now will be playing away from home for the third time in four weeks. The Trojans have failed to cover in 15 of their last 21 away matchups. 
Utah ranks No. 2 in the nation in sacks with 15 and is No. 8 nationally in pass-efficiency defense. The Utes are balanced on offense and strong on special teams. They are in much better shape mentally and physically for this game than USC.

This line is too short. The Bears are much superior to the Eagles. The line doesn't reflect that because it's just Week 2 and the oddsmaker is swayed by how well Eagles rookie quarterback Carson Wentz looked opening week and the Bears losing and not covering versus the Texans.
Wentz, though, went against maybe the worst defense in the NFL - the Browns. He was home, too. Now he makes his road debut and it's on the Monday night national stage against a much-improved, well-coached Bears defense.
Wentz has an aging offensive line and below average wide receivers. He's not likely to have his security blanket either as tight end Zach Ertz has a serious rib injury and is not likely to play. I see Wentz struggling in this spot.
Jay Cutler has physical tools, but is not an elite quarterback. We know that. But Cutler will do better this year with a healthy Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White. I rate Jeffery as the eighth-best wide receiver in the NFL. His presence is huge for Cutler's confidence and the Bears offense. The Eagles secondary can't cover him. 
Cutler is at his best when he's not facing adversity. He won't have to deal with that in this matchup. 

I see this as a clear kill spot for the Panthers and I want to lock in now before the number hits 14 - which it will and then probably still go higher.  
The Panthers hold edges in all areas against the 49ers. Not just minor edges either. The Panthers have all-pros at many positions. The 49ers have below average starters at many positions.  
The 49ers' problems are made more difficult by the scheduling dynamics. The Panthers have had nearly 1 1/2 weeks to sit around stewing about blowing a lead to the Broncos in the opening Thursday night game. Cam Newton is going to have a much easier time against the 49ers defense. 
The 49ers are fat and happy after whipping the Rams at home this past Monday night. Now they have to make a cross-country journey on a short week. Carolina is 19-7-1 in its last 27 home games. 

These two teams met two months ago and Hamilton buried Montreal, 31-7, despite not playing an "A" game, or having quarterback Zach Collaros.
Now the timing is even worse for Montreal. 
The Tiger-Cats scored 11 points versus the Blue Bombers in their last game before Collaros was named the starter. In five games since then, Hamilton is averaging 37 points during its past five games. Collaros has a 112.7 quarterback rating with a 15-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 
Hamilton is off a flat spot having just lost to Toronto, 33-21, after beating the Argonauts, 49-36, at home two weeks ago. The Tiger-Cats are 11-5 ATS the past 16 times following a non-cover. They've won by double-digits the past two times at home following a road defeat. 
But not only is this a play-on spot for Hamilton, but it's a heavy fade, too, against Montreal. The Alouettes are in turmoil. They are 3-8 on the season (2-8 ATS in their last 10 games) and have a lot of dissension. Montreal coach and general manager Jim Popp traded quarterback Kevin Glenn before his team's last game. Second-year man Rakeem Cato is now the Alouettes' quarterback and he's clashed with his receivers. This past Tuesday Cato had to be removed from the practice field after shouting and pushing the team's leading receiver, Duron Carter. The two had gotten into a spat the previous week, too.
This is what Carter was quoted as saying this past Wednesday, "We lost a quarterback (Glenn). It's not helping our team. ... There's no way we can say we're better without Kevin." 
This isn't exactly a ringing endorsement for Cato. Carter had been suspended earlier this season. The players aren't happy with Popp. The locker room, according to sources, is a train wreck. 
Montreal scored one touchdown on offense last week. During the previous five games, the Alouettes have scored fewer than 19 points four times. If you can't score in the CFL you can't cover. 

Minnesota is much superior to Tennessee in all facets except quarterback and that includes coaching. The Vikings have their sights set on reaching the Super Bowl. Their roster is very strong with lots of young defensive talent, Adrian Peterson to take the pressure off Shaun Hill, more wide receiving threats and an upgraded offensive line. 
After losing to a bad 49ers team last year on the road in their opener, the Vikings should be fully prepared this time around. They know they can't take a loss with the Packers and Panthers up next in Weeks 2 and 3. The Vikings rebounded from that defeat to the 49ers to cover their last seven road games. Peterson and an emerging defense are an excellent road formula. 
The Titans have lost 14 of their 16 home games during the last two seasons. Marcus Mariota is a promising second-year quarterback, but the Titans are in a huge rebuilding stage. They have a lot of youth, new starters and lack receiving weapons for Mariota. Their talent level can't compare to the Vikings. 

I'm skeptical of Brock Osweiler and a banged-up offensive line that is likely to be without star left tackle Duane Brown. I'm certainly not swallowing the hype on Osweiler. 
Both teams are slow-motion, grind-out types where points mean something. So taking more than a field goal is big. Last year, all but five of the Bears' games were decided by five points or less. 
The Bears are well coached and fundamentally sound. John Fox is 30-12 ATS on the road in his NFL coaching career and knows the Texans and Osweiler from when he coached the Broncos. The Bears covered six of their last seven away games last season. 
I'm expecting a strong defensive game plan from Fox and his ace defensive coordinator Vic Fangio with so much time to prepare. I'll take their experience, savvy and tricks against Osweiler and a vanilla Houston offense that had to deal with multiple offensive line injuries during preseason and isn't likely to be in sync here.
The Bears offense is ready to take off and become a lot more vertical with a healthy Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White. Jay Cutler is far more effective with a healthy Jeffery. 

Washington State under Mike Leach has been at its best versus strong competition and as a road 'dog, both of which are in play here. The Cougars are 7-1 ATS the past eight times versus above .500 opponents and have covered 12 of the last 15 times as an away underdog. 
The Cougars have proven their road strength by winning at Oregon, UCLA, USC, Arizona and California during the past three years under Leach. 
Certainly the Cougars have the offense to hang with Boise State sparked by quarterback Luke Falk and wide receiver Gabe Marks. They can hurt a Boise State defense that does not have a stellar pass rush nor secondary. 
It's on defense where the oddsmaker doubts Washington State with this line after the Cougars lost, 45-42, to Eastern Washington as heavy favorites during opening week. 
But Eastern Washington has an underrated offense and the Cougars were without their best defensive player, suspended safety Shalom Luani. He's back from suspension now and will play here, which should greatly shore up the Cougars' secondary. 

Saskatchewan isn't going anywhere at 1-9. The Roughriders' season is essentially finished - except for this game. This is going to be their Super Bowl. 
These two teams just met this past Sunday in their annual Labour Day Classic. The Roughriders lost in controversial fashion. They outgained the Blue Bombers, but fell 28-25 on a field goal during the final play of the game. 
Winnipeg probably should not have been in position to win the game because the referees disallowed an interception by Justin Cox with 28 seconds left instead penalizing him for pass interference even though it was reported that Cox had provided textbook coverage on the play.
The Blue Bombers should be feeling fat and happy having won five in a row and returning home for the first time since Aug. 12. They are in a prime ambush spot with the Roughriders in short revenge. 
Winnipeg has played worse at home than on the road. The Blue Bombers are 1-3 SU and ATS at home this season and have failed to cover eight of the past 11 times they've met a foe with a losing record.  

I see the Panthers getting their revenge on the Broncos after losing to Denver in the Super Bowl. Carolina didn't lose the Super Bowl based on talent. The Panthers out-gained the Broncos by 121 yards and had 10 more first downs than Denver.
Certainly the Broncos are worthy of respect despite their less-than-inspiring quarterback situation. But Carolina is the more complete team extremely strong on both sides of the ball. Cam Newton just had his worst game of the season in the Super Bowl.
Newton, of course, is the real deal and gives the Panthers a monster quarterback edge. He has his top receiver weapon, Kelvin Benjamin, back now which wasn't the case in the Super Bowl. 
Denver's defense still is top-notch, but several important players did leave. Carolina lost its great cornerback, Josh Norman. But the Panthers rate far better than the Broncos with a top-three quarterback compared to a bottom-three quarterback. 
The right team is favored here. 

The Nationals return home where they have beaten the Braves 21 of the past 26 times.
This game certainly doesn't figure to be close with unheralded converted reliever Ryan Weber making his first start of the season due to Matt Wisler being out. 
Half of the handicap is fading second-year man Weber, who was 0-3 in five starts last season and has a 5.24 ERA this year. The longest he's pitched this season is 3 2/3 innings. That was back in April. 
The other half of the handicap is playing on Nationals ace Max Scherzer, who is having another superb season and is in excellent form allowing a combined two runs on five hits in his last two starts spanning 16 innings with a 21-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Scherzer has given up fewer than three earned runs during each of his last seven home starts. 
The Nationals have dominated the Braves this year winning 11 of 13 times. 

Winnipeg is hot with four straight victories that have coincided since Matt Nichols was installed as its starting quarterback. Saskatchewan is 1-8, 3-6 ATS. 
But those records can be thrown out in this annual Labour Day Classic. The game is a sell-out in Saskatchewan. It's also the Roughriders' season. If they can't get a win here - in a home game they are going all out to win - then there really is no pulse on the team. 
I'm expecting the Roughriders to play their best game of the year fortified with returning injured offensive linemen and wide receiver Rob Bagg back. 
Saskatchewan has won four of the past five times hosting Winnipeg. The Blue Bombers haven't been favored since opening week. Now they're laying more than a field goal in an annual rivalry Labour Day matchup. I'm not buying it. This marks Winnipeg's third consecutive road game, too. 

First it's important to note this game isn't in Madison. It's in Green Bay at Lambeau Field and LSU expects to have 30,000 fans. The seating capacity is 80,735. So almost half the crowd will be for the Tigers. 
As far as the matchup, it couldn't come at a worst time for Wisconsin. The Badgers need to shore up their offensive line because of injuries. Their best offensive lineman recently retired due to repeated injuries. They also are unsettled at quarterback. It would have been best for Wisconsin to ease into their schedule. That's certainly not the case here.
LSU is an absolute powerhouse with tremendous skill position talent. Leonard Fournette rivals Deshaun Watson as the best player in college football. 
Highly respected Tigers defensive coordinator Dave Aranda knows the Badgers inside-and-out having been their defensive coordinator the previous three seasons before coming to LSU this season. The Badgers hated to see him go. 
Wisconsin is going to lose anywhere from three to six games this season. The Badgers aren't in LSU's class and that point is made worse for Wisconsin by this being the opening game. 

Colorado has its best team since 2007 with 18 returning starters. Colorado State could have its worst team in five years. Yet because some look upon this matchup as some sort of in-state rivalry, the spread is less than double-digits. 
Wrong number. The Buffaloes should roll past the Rams with huge edges in the trenches and in the passing game. 
Colorado is deep at running back and has a top wide receiver in Shay Fields. Colorado State has to replace it's entire defensive front and is thin and inexperienced in the secondary. Senior Buffaloes quarterback Sefo Liufau and Fields should put up big numbers.
The Buffaloes showed defensive improvement last year and that should continue this season. They return nine defensive starters plus get back suspended senior nose tackle Josh Tupou. Colorado State lost its best receiver from last season.  
The Buffaloes have won and covered five of the last six in this series and are in great position to extend that run given the timing of this matchup. 

The last week of preseason is a crapshoot. I usually don't get involved. But I can't see the Vikings being prepared at all to play after seeing quarterback Teddy Bridgewater suffer serious injuries at practice on Tuesday. That had to be devastating for the team. 

The Vikings are shell shocked right now. Playing a game - even a meaningless one like this - has to be the last thing on their mind. Their thoughts are about Bridgewater right now. Not the Rams. 

Vikings coach Mike Zimmer has to be careful how much he plays veteran Shaun Hill in this game now because Hill is the new Vikings starting quarterback. This means most of the quarterback playing time in this game going to undrafted free agent  Joel Stave and Brad Sorensen, who was just cut by the team before Bridgewater went down. 

Rams coach Jeff Fisher has been treating the preseason more serious than other coaches trying to build up momentum and optimism for the Rams in their first year since returning to Los Angeles. The Rams hold a quarterback edge with Case Keenum, Jared Goff and Sean Mannion. All three of those are much better than Stave. 

It's a rough to fade Calgary, but the Stampeders have a bit of a cushion in the West Division and could be in letdown mode.
Even if they aren't, though, Hamilton always plays the Stampeders tough. In all but two of the last eight meetings, the games have been decided by less than a touchdown. Calgary is 3-0 the past three times meeting the Tiger-Cats. However, the combined margin of victory in those three games is by a total of eight points. Hamilton has covered the past five times when playing in Calgary. 
The Tiger-Cats have picked up their game with the return of QB Zach Collaros. Hamilton has scored 31 or more points in four of its last five games. The Tiger-Cats are proven road warriors, too, covering 70 percent of their last 20 away contests.

Both Pittsburgh and New Orleans are 0-2 in preseason. 
Sean Payton wants to change that. Saints starters on both offense and defense are expected to see extended action. The Saints want this game. 
The same can't be said for Mike Tomlin, who isn't crazy enough to risk Ben Roethlisberger to injury especially since Roethlisberger has become more injury prone the last couple of seasons. 
Pittsburgh's 1-9 SU and ATS mark the past three years in preseason isn't a fluke. Tomlin is one of those coaches who does not care about winning these meaningless games.
While Drew Brees should see most of the quarterback action, the Saints also have capable backups in Luke McCown and Garrett Grayson. 
The Steelers lost their veteran backup quarterback, Bruce Gradkowski, to a hamstring injury. That means extended playing time for Landry Jones and Bryn Renner, who has been cut by four teams during the past two seasons and likely is going to be out of the NFL when preseason finishes. 

Montreal has the second-worst record in the Canadian Football League. The Alouettes were 1-5 in their last six games - with all the losses occurring by double-digits - until they upset Ottawa last Friday as nine-point road 'dogs. 
The Alouettes are 0-5 ATS following a win and have failed to cover in six of their last seven home games. I don't think they are very good and a fluke victory doesn't change that opinion. It just sets up a letdown scenario for Montreal against the rested and hot Blue Bombers. 
Sparked by quarterback Matt Nichols, Winnipeg has won three in a row. The Blue Bombers beat Edmonton on the road, Hamilton at home and Toronto on the road by a combined 50 points. All three of those opponents are .500 teams. The Blue Bombers were underdogs in each game. 
The Blue Bombers were idle last week and are expected to get several key injured starters back, including their top receivers. In the meantime, Nichols has found good chemistry with Clarence Denmark, Kris Adams, Jace Davis and Thomas Mayo. 
Winnipeg leads the CFL in takeaways and its secondary can get an added boost with the return of Chris Randle and Macho Harris. 
The Blue Bombers should have plenty of depth now that they are healthier. The timing is right, too, off a bye and catching Montreal in a letdown spot. 
The Alouettes have been favored only once - and that was against the worst team in the league, Saskatchewan - and they shouldn't be favored here. 

Jered Weaver and J.A. Happ are both 33. But that's where the similarity ends.No pitcher has more wins than Happ, who is 17-3 with a 3.05 ERA. Happ has turned his career around to where he's a serious Cy Young candidate. Weaver, on the other hand, has lost his fastball and is on a continuing decline.
Weaver has a 5.47 ERA. The Angels are 6-14 in his last 20 road starts. The Angels have lost 14 times when Weaver has started - all by more than one run. 
The Angels did win on Wednesday. But they are playing the string out losers of 15 of their last 19. The Blue Jays are in a pennant race and draw the Angels here in a get away game where the Angels have to cross the border following the game. 
Toronto is 21-5 in Happ's last 26 starts, including winning the past seven times he's faced a sub .500 opponent. 

If given 1 1/2 runs, the Phillies would be 13-3 in their last 16 games. They still hold playoff hopes and have won their past four games. 
The Phillies just faced Dodgers starter Kenta Madeda eight days ago and got to him for three runs in five innings. This is another quick turnaround look at him. 
Phillies starter Vince Velasquez has been much better when pitching at Citizens Bank Park going 4-1 with a 1.72 ERA in his nine home starts this season. Velasquez is from Southern California and has a strong revenge motivate after the Dodgers roughed him up eight days ago in a 9-3 loss at Dodger Stadium. 
The Phillies' bullpen has been overworked, but got a much needed day off yesterday with the Phillies being idle. 

These two teams just had a joint practice on Friday and the Texans looked good during it reinvigorated from a day off on Wednesday and by the less humid weather than they are used to. 
The Texans are the superior team and I see their energy and focus carrying over into this game. 
Houston holds a strong skill position edge, particularly with its wide receiver depth. That should prove crucial here. I would take Brock Osweiler over Blaine Gabbert. The 49ers could be missing Colin Kaepernick, too, He's missed the last two days of practice with a sore shoulder.
Chip Kelly's top priority is to get his system in place. That's going to take time. 
Taking points is a nice bonus. 

The Packers have lost and failed to cover in five of their last six preseason openers. Mike McCarthy doesn't care about these preseason openers. Hue Jackson does in his Browns coaching debut. 
That's why Jackson is going to play starting quarterback Robert Griffin III a lot. That gives Cleveland a monster quarterback edge since neither Aaron Rodgers nor backup Brett Hundley are expected to play. Hundley remains sidelined with a an ankle injury. 
This leaves the Packers' quarterback rotation left to a pair of undrafted rookies. On top of that, the Packers have a cluster injury problem in their offensive line. So they'll be playing backups in the offensive line. Green Bay lacks depth in its offensive line. 
The Browns are the team with far more motivation with a number of starting spots up for grabs. 

They are in different conferences, but the Saints will have great familiarity with the Patriots since the teams have been jointly practicing. That's a big plus when taking points in a preseason game. The two teams met last preseason and New Orleans jumped out to a 15-0 lead before losing by two points. 
I like the Saints' quarterback situation better than New England's for this preseason matchup. Consider Drew Brees and Tom Brady a wash. Jimmy Garoppolo hasn't looked sharp for New England. The Saints' backups are veteran Luke McCown and second-year man Garrett Grayson, who completed 8 of 12 passes against Baltimore in the Saints' preseason opener last year. Rookie QB Jacoby Brissett figures to play a lot in this game for New England. 
The Saints are working hard at establishing a tough defensive mind set under new defensive coordinator Dennis Allen. The Saints have more to prove during the preseason. This is what Bill Belichick said this week, "We still have things we need to install." The Patriots have lost and failed to cover in their last two preseason openers losing by 11 points to the Packers last year and by 17 points to the Redskins in 2014. 
New Orleans has covered seven of the past nine times when getting points in preseason and is 4-1 ATS in its last five preseason openers. 

The defending Grey Cup champion Eskimos are finding out that repeating isn't going to be easy. They have lost their last two games - both as solid home favorites. It's the first time Edmonton has lost two in a row since 2014. 
Now the Eskimos go on the road to play Ottawa where they are underdogs for the first this season. Look for the Eskimos to bounce back. They won their lone away game this season and are 8-2 ATS following a straight-up loss. 
Edmonton opened its season with a 45-37 overtime loss to the Redblacks so there also is a strong revenge factor. 
There is nothing wrong with Edmonton's offense. Quarterback Mike Reilly leads the CFL in passing yards and touchdown passes per game. Reilly is attacking a banged-up Redblacks secondary down several veteran starters. 
The Eskimos certainly should put up their share of points and they're due to play much better because the talent is there. 

The number is inflated because Ottawa starting quarterback Henry Burris is back after missing five games with a finger injury, while Logan Kilgore makes his first start replacing injured No. 1 quarterback Ricky Ray for Toronto.
These teams just played each other on July 13. The score was tied 20-20 with 2:49 left when the Redblacks returned a punt 75 yards for a touchdown in a 30-20 final.
Burris could be rusty. That's a possibility. But I also believe Kilgore will be ready having had all week to practice with the first unit. Kilgore looked good in preseason and will be coached up by Scott Milanovich, who has a strong reputation for developing quarterbacks.
Also in Kilgore's favor is the Argonauts have improved their ground attack ranking in the middle after finishing last in 2015. Toronto's offensive line is coming around, too, allowing only one sack in its last game, a victory against Montreal, which has a top-four defense. The Argonauts should be primed for a big effort not only because it's short revenge, but also rallying around their replacement quarterback. 

Road teams have been gold this CFL season. B.C. has contributed to that going 2-0 SU and ATS in its two away matchups. The Lions aren't strong at quarterback, but they compensate for that with a league-leading running attack and outstanding defense that ranks No. 1 in fewest yards allowed per game. The Lions' ground attack can take advantage of Calgary's defensive line injuries making it easier for quarterback Jonathon Jennings to pick his spots. 
The Lions upset Calgary, 20-18, opening week as 2 1/2-point 'dogs. Now they are off a bye and the pointspread is doubled. It wasn't a fluke the Lions won the first meeting as they outgained the Stampeders while running off 17 more plays. 
Calgary's only two wins have been against Winnipeg, which has the worst record in the league at 1-4. 
The Lions have outgained each of their first four opponents. The line is inflated because of Calgary's revenge angle and perhaps the oddsmaker not fully buying into the much improved Lions.

Road teams have been gold this CFL season going 13-3-1 and 15-2 against the spread through Thursday. Toronto has been part of this home field problem going 0-2 at their new BMO Field, losing by an average of 16 points to Hamilton and Ottawa. A crowd of less than 10,000 is expected so the Argonauts don't have a strong home field despite their new digs. 
This has been a road team series, too, with the visitor winning nine of the last 10 times. 
Montreal has a strong defense, but the CFL's weakest offense. A large part of the Alouettes' problems on offense have been because of injuries, including an eye injury to quarterback Kevin Glenn. But Glenn has been taking first-team reps this week after missing last week's game and is expected to start. That should give the Alouettes a needed boost.
The Alouettes do have a strong defense. Toronto averages fewer than 24 points a game and ranks last in yards gained. So this is a lot of points for the Argos to lay. 

I want to fade Edwin Jackson in the worst way while getting behind Max Scherzer. Of course the whole world wants to do this, too. So this is a way to get the matchup - laying 1 1/2 runs - without having to risk 3/1 odds. 
The Nationals have lost back-to-back home games with Stephen Strasburg and Tanner Roark. I don't see them dropping a third consecutive game with their third of three aces. 
Jackson is in my top five National League worst starter list even though he nearly threw a no-hitter during his last start. The Marlins cut Jackson this season after he had nearly a 6.00 ERA in eight games with them. The Padres are his 11th team. He has a 4.58 lifetime ERA and 1.45 WHIP. 
Scherzer is one of the five best starters in the National League and he's in typical great form with a 5-2 mark and 1.61 ERA in his last nine starts. He's struck out 81 during this time frame spanning 61 1/3 innings. 
The Nationals have won by more than one run in 11 of their last 13 victories. 

Promising Julio Urias can only hope to be as dominant as Stephen Strasburg is right now. Strasburg is more than living up to his huge ceiling as he tries to become the first pitcher since Roger Clemens in 1986 to open a season 14-0. 
Strasburg has held his past four opponents to fewer than two earned runs compiling a 0.94 ERA. Strasburg has a 1.71 career ERA versus the Dodgers in four starts.   
The 19-year-old Urias has great potential, but he's going through growing pains and he doesn't have the element of surprise on his side nor pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium in this road matchup. The Nationals saw Urias less than a month ago in LA. They'll be ready for him.  

Take the Padres out of Petco Park and they become a dangerous offensive team. San Diego is averaging 7.8 runs in its last six road games. 
The Padres also are 11-7 during their past 18 overall games. The Dodgers are 6-11 in their last 17 games if giving up 1 1/2 runs.
I like the way San Diego starter Luis Perdomo is developing. He has one of the league's highest ground ball rates during the last month and is coming off a six-inning start against the Diamondbacks allowing just two earned runs with five strikeouts and no walks. That was at Chase Field, too, which is far more challenging to pitchers than Dodgers Stadium. 
Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy is on the comeback trail following Tommy John surgery. This only will be his second start of the season. McCarthy has a lifetime 4.82 ERA with the Dodgers. LA is without injured outfielder Joc Pederson and its bullpen carries a heavy fatigue rating after Scott Kazmir went just three innings last night. 

This is just too many points for Edmonton to give up considering the defense and coaching of their opponent.
Saskatchewan surrendered just 186 passing yards and 66 rushing yards to Toronto in its lone game this season. However, the Rough Riders lost because of turnovers - including a fumble return brought back for a touchdown - and bad special teams play. Saskatchewan quarterback Darian Durant looked good in the loss completing 31 of 48 throws for 310 yards and a touchdown. 
Look for Coach Chris Jones to clean that up. You know the Rough Riders are going to be tough under Jones, who knows the Eskimos having coached them to the Grey Cup last season before leaving for Saskatchewan this season along with his coaching staff. 
Edmonton also lost in its lone game this season. The Eskimos really appeared to be missing Jones as they gave up 45 points to Ottawa. The Eskimos not only are minus Jones, one of the top defensive minds in the CFL, but also are in heavy rebuilt mode at linebacker and in the secondary. 

The Braves ended a four-game losing streak by upsetting the Cubs in a rain-delayed, 11-inning makeup game Thursday. Now the Braves draw the rested White Sox, who were idle Thursday, and lefty Chris Sale. 
Atlanta has the worst offense and worst record in the majors. The Braves are 9-22 versus southpaws. This is a kill spot for the White Sox so I'm going to lay a 1 1/2 runs at considerably reduced juice. Matt Wisler has shown some promise, but he's far from Sale's class and is backed by a bad bullpen that also carries a high fatigue rating. 
Chicago is 15-3 in Sale's past 18 starts. The White Sox are 8-1 in Sale's past nine home starts and 8-0 in his last eight interleague starts. 
The White Sox are playing well winning seven of 10, including their past five. 

Calgary is double-digits better than Winnipeg especially when playing at home. 
The oddsmaker opened the Stampeders a little light because Calgary was upset by BC last Saturday, 20-18. That was the Stampeders' first season-opening loss since 2011 and should prove a wake-up call especially after blowing an 11-point second half lead. 
The last time Calgary lost two games in a row in a season was early in 2012. That's the longest streak in Canadian pro football history. Calgary is 21-6 ATS following a loss.  
Winnipeg is a bottom-three team that looked bad in losing at home to Montreal to start the season last week. Drew Willy was sacked five times and didn't look good. The Blue Bombers are averaging just 17.2 points during their last four games. So their poor offensive performance wasn't a surprise. 

The Phillies are playing much better. They've won four of their last six, including the first two games of this series. They would be 7-0 if given 1 1/2 runs during their last seven games.
The Diamondbacks have lost four in a row. They have been terrible at Chase Field dropping 27 of 40. This includes losing eight of the past nine times against a foe with a losing road mark. 
Phillies starter Zach Eflin is pitching better giving up three runs in his last two starts spanning 11 2/3 innings. Diamondbacks starter Archie Bradley is 1-2 at home with a 5.79 ERA. The Phillies just faced him on June 19. The Diamondbacks' bullpen is in disarray, weak in middle relief and closer Brad Ziegler has blown two of his last three save opportunities. 

This is a kill spot for the Astros with everything lining up. But rather than lay such hefty juice, going the run line route makes sense. 
The Reds are force-feeding Cody Reed. It's his first big league start. The Reds are desperate because of a cluster injury problem in their starting rotation. Making matters worse for the Reds is their horrendous bullpen, which has a 6.46 road ERA and is heavily taxed having pitching 21 2/3 innings during the past four days. 
The powerful Astros have the offense to take advantage. They also have Dallas Keuchel on the mound. Houston is 21-6 in Keuchel's last 27 home starts and he's 14-3 the past 17 times when pitching on five days rest. 
Despite winning last night against the Astros, the Reds are just 6-17 in their last 23 road games versus opponents sporting an above .500 home mark. 

It's my belief the Warriors are the superior team here when they have Draymond Green. He returns to action for this Game 6. 
LeBron James and Kyrie Irving took advantage of Green's Game 5 suspension to combine to make an astounding 33 of 54 shots from floor. The rest of the Cavaliers aren't impressive and I don't see James and Irving having a Game for the Ages like they did in Game 5. 
Golden State has proven itself time after time following a loss going 16-1 in those instances! The Warriors are an underdog here making that powerful 94 percent trend even stronger. 
A telling statistic from Game 5 was the Cavaliers coming up with just 15 assists. Cleveland's ball movement wasn't good. Kevin Love continues to be a non-factor and the Warriors own a huge bench edge.
The extra time off from playing on Monday favors the Warriors because they are much better coached with Steve Kerr over rookie coach Tyronn Lue. It's a plus if Andrew Bogut is able to play for the Warriors, but not essential. 
The Warriors are going to have fresh legs and Green, who not only is a tremendous defender but helps open the floor offensively for Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. The importance of Green to Golden State is immeasurable and it will show in this game. 
The Cavaliers, on the other hand, are totally reliant on James and Irving. Those two aren't enough to stop a rested and superior Warriors team from winning. 

As great as Clayton Kershaw is, his record would be just 6-6 in his last 12 starts if the Dodgers were minus 1 1/2 runs. If there is one team that has been competitive against Kershaw it's the Diamondbacks. Kershaw is 11-8 against them with a 2.76 ERA. Kershaw is 1-6 during his last seven starts at Chase Field.
The Dodgers rank 27th in batting average and OPS. They are a predominantly right-handed hitting team, a negative when going against southpaw Patrick Corbin. Only three times in their last 16 games have the Dodgers scored more than four runs. Their bullpen is below average aside from star closer Kenley Jansen. LA already has blown nine saves on the road. 
Paul Goldschmidt, the Diamondbacks' key hitter, has a strong history versus the Dodgers and is batting .391 since May 27. The Diamondbacks are much stronger offensively versus lefties, too. 
Corbin had a 2.97 ERA at Chase Field in 2013 and a 3.11 ERA at home last season with a 44-to-six-strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's had a down season so far this year, but has recently showed signs of regaining his one-time All-Star form. 

Kyle Hendricks hasn't been nearly as good on the road as he has been at Wrigley Field. Hendricks is 1-3 with a 4.37 road ERA compared to 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA at home. This also is the Phillies' third look already at Hendricks having just faced him two starts ago. 
Philadelphia's offense has picked up with the call-up of Tommy Joseph and picking up Jimmy Paredes. 
Phillies starter Jerad Eickhoff is underrated having made seven of 11 quality starts this season. The Phillies' bullpen also is underrated having been quite good this season. 

The Twins are even worse than thought. They are 5-20 in their last 25 games, owners of the worst road record in the American League at 4-19. They have lost the past seven times following an off day. 
I don't see those numbers improving as Minnesota travels to Seattle to take on a hot Mariners club - 7-2 last in its last nine games - and going against Felix Hernandez with rookie Pat Dean. 
Hernandez has some mileage, but is still an elite pitcher. He's in good form, too, with a 2.21 ERA in his last three starts. Hernandez has dominated Minnesota also going 4-0 with a 0.63 ERA in his last five starts against the Twins with a 1.93 lifetime ERA in 17 outings.
The Twins are last in the American League in runs scored. Seattle, on the other hand, is swinging hot bats. If you discount a 5-0 loss to Rich Hill three games ago, the Mariners are averaging seven runs during their last six games. Dean is making just his second big league start. 

Yes, I know this is the Warriors' season and the Zig-Zag fully is in play here, which means Golden State is the side to play following two straight losses.
But it's too difficult for me to turn down this many points considering how much the Thunder have outplayed the Warriors during Games 3 and 4 winning by a combined 52 points. 

Forget about last season when the Warriors won the championship. Forget the Warriors' record regular season. This is the present and simply put the Thunder are outrebounding, outshooting and even outhustling Golden Sate. The statistics for the series bear this out: The Thunder are shooting 45.6 percent from the floor to the Warriors' 44.4 percent, are plus 27 on the boards, plus six in steals, have 14 more blocked shots and have committed five fewer turnovers.

Oklahoma City is the healthier team, has the momentum and its confidence level is at its highest. Contrast this with the Warriors, who are on the wrong end of an elimination game for the first time in Steve Kerr's two years. 

The Warriors are in uncharted waters. Their big men aren't playing well. Neither is Draymond Green. Stephen Curry isn't physically right, maybe playing at 70 percent since returning six games ago from a sprained right MCL. 
The Cavaliers blew out the Raptors last night after losing two in a row. But there's a class difference between those two teams. There isn't a class difference between these two teams. If there is, it's the Thunder being much better than the Warriors right now. 

OK, the Raptors got their measure of respect beating Cleveland, 99-84, at home in Game 3 of this Eastern Conference Final series this past Saturday. 
There is no way a game like that happens to Cleveland in Game 4. I fully expect to see the Cavaliers play their "A" game. Even their "B" game should be enough to cover this number. 
Toronto had its moment. Now things revert back. The Cavaliers buried the Raptors by 31 and 19 points, respectively, during the first two games of this series. The Cavaliers are - and always will be - in control of this series. They totally outclass the Raptors, who have gone as far as they can go. 
LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Co. buried the Pistons and Hawks. The Raptors are next in line. 
Toronto has failed to cover six of the past seven times following a victory. The Raptors also are 4-10 ATS versus foes with a winning record. 

Never before have the Cavaliers blown out a team in the playoffs like they did Toronto in Game 1 winning by 31 points. The Cavaliers have yet to taste defeat in the postseason and they certainly can't be faulted for feeling overconfident in hosting the Raptors in Game 2. 
No, I don't see the Raptors pulling off an upset for the ages here. But I do see a better situation for Toronto and a strong effort forthcoming. That should ensure the Raptors of staying within a dozen points of Cleveland.
Keep in mind, the Raptors were tired and obviously flat in Game 1 this past Tuesday having just finished a grueling seven-game series against Miami on Sunday. The opener against Cleveland was Toronto's third game at a different gym in five days. Only one day to prepare and regroup to face the Cavaliers wasn't nearly enough.
Now the Raptors have been at the same venue for three days. So look for a lot fresher Raptors team especially star guards DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowery, who saw their shortest playing time against the Cavaliers in any playoff game. 
Toronto has proven to be resilient and tough following a loss covering seven of the past 10 times in that instance. Each time the Raptors lost in the playoffs, too, they bounced back with a victory going 6-0 in these spots. The Raptors also are 13-5 ATS the past 18 times versus foes with a winning percentage above .600. 
The Raptors had a better record than Detroit and Atlanta. Yet the Cavaliers were 10 1/2 and 11-point home favorites against the Pistons in the playoffs and minus 7 and 7 1/2 versus the Hawks at home in the playoffs. 
So the Cavaliers certainly are paying a premium for their lopsided Game 1 victory. I'll take the value with an underdog that has much to prove, including a lot of self-respect, following Game 1. 

The Thunder are getting a lot of kudos for knocking off San Antonio. But this is a bad spot for Oklahoma City. Remember what happened to the Thunder when they played at San Antonio in Game 1 of their Western Conference semifinal series? They were blitzed by 32 points.
Now I'm not saying Golden State is going to bury the Thunder like that, but I do believe the timing and matchup is right for the Warriors to win by double digits in this opener of the Western Conference finals. 
The Warriors have a tremendous home floor as evidenced by losing just once at Oracle Arena all season. Golden State went 3-0 versus Oklahoma City during the regular season winning at home against the Thunder by 15 and 8 points, respectively. The Warriors have covered in seven of their last eight home game, including going 5-1 ATS during the playoffs.  
Now much of that is factored into the line. What's isn't built as much into the line is the belief that the Warriors have the versatility, flexibility, superior coaching and athletic talent to take advantage of being off for four full days and counter the Thunder's rebounding edge. 
Oklahoma City was able to beat San Antonio by dominating the Spurs on the boards. That forced the Spurs into a deliberate style where they had to rely on a mediocre perimeter game. San Antonio got out of sync. Some of the Spurs showed their considerable age.
The Warriors' talent are in their prime. Stephen Curry proved he's back from his knee injury averaging 34.5 points, 9.5 assists and seven rebounds during the final two games of Golden State's semifinal victory over the Trail Blazers. Curry and banged-up center Andrew Bogut should heavily benefit from the extra time off between series. 
I expect the Warriors to be in sync and able to hurt the Thunder via fast breaks, something the older and slower Spurs were unable to do. The Thunder aren't going to be able to beat the Warriors like they did the Spurs. That difference is going to manifest itself in this Game 1. There's also the chance the Thunder still are on a big high from upsetting the Spurs and not able to settle down for this much different opponent especially being on the road.  

I can understand a certain respect level for the Spurs and Gregg Popovich. But opening the Spurs a road favorite based on the past four games in this playoff series is just plain wrong. 

Since getting blown out in Game 1, the Thunder has won three of four winning by one on the road, 14 at home and by four points on the road while losing by four points in Game 3 at home. The Thunder has outrebounded the Spurs in each of these past four games. And that's the key to this game and the series.
The Spurs and Popovich are limited in what they can plan and do when Oklahoma City is controlling the boards. The Thunder led the NBA in rebounding this season. They outrebounded the Spurs by 18 boards in Tuesday's Game 5 victory. Unsung Steven Adams is coming up big. There is no fluke to Oklahoma City controlling the backboard. 
This is what Tony Parker was quoted as saying following the Spurs' Game 5 loss: "We know that's (rebounding) the key of the series. We know we have to control the boards. We made a lot of stops tonight (Tuesday), but we just can't get the boards and it's killing us in the end. Control the boards. I think that's the key of the series. We can't keep giving them opportunities to score." 
Popovich has tried to limit superstars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook by playing more half-court offense. The Spurs actually were getting needed stops in Game 5 holding Durant and Westbrook to a combined 20 of 48 (41.6 percent) shooting from the floor. But the Thunder still were able to upset the Spurs in San Antonio by their rebounding dominance. That's not going to change especially with the venue being moved now to Oklahoma City and the Thunder that much more confident. 
San Antonio built a 67-15 regular-season record by steamrolling lesser foes. The Spurs are 2-8 ATS the last 10 times when facing foes with a winning mark above .600. They also have failed to cover seven of the last 10 times following a loss. 
Oklahoma City is playing its finest basketball right now. The Thunder certainly are capable of winning a championship. They are 12-4 ATS the past 16 times meeting opponents with a winning record. 
The Thunder also have covered seven of their last nine games against San Antonio and are 12-3 ATS the last 15 times hosting the Thunder. 

Since Game 1, the Thunder have outplayed the Spurs winning two of the last three. Oklahoma City has the most talented player, Kevin Durant, and is the better rebounding team. Steve Adams has turned into a strong wildcard proving to be highly effective inside against San Antonio. 
The Spurs have much on their plate already dealing with Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka. Now Adams has to be accounted for, too. 
Oklahoma City has covered eight of the past 10 times on the road going against an opponent with a home winning percentage above .600. The Spurs fattened their record during the season burying patsies. They are 2-7 ATS the past nine times hosting foes with a winning percentage above .600. 
Yes, home-court means a lot. I respect the heck out of San Antonio and Gregg Popovich especially when playing at home. But this line is inflated enough to get involved with Oklahoma City. 

The Raptors find themselves in a must-win spot here by virtue of losing Game 1, 102-96, in overtime at home this past Tuesday. A Toronto loss to Miami in this Game 2 could set up a Heat sweep with Games 3 and 4 in Miami. 
The oddsmaker is well aware of this. It's certainly no bargain laying this many points with the Raptors. But I'm confident the handicap will hold. This is Toronto's game to win. 
Toronto is the younger team with much to prove especially All-Star Kyle Lowry. The Heat are the old gunslingers. They managed to thwart off the Raptors' late challenge in Game 1, but Dwayne Wade doesn't have much spring in his step and Hassan Whiteside isn't 100 percent. Both teams had to go the full seven games to win their first-round series. The Heat are the older team and had to come back from being down 3-2 to Charlotte to pull it off. The Heat will be the more fatigued team on Thursday, in action for the third time in five days having gone from home to Charlotte to Toronto.  
Even defeating the Raptors in Game 1, Miami still has only covered three of its past 11 road matchups. 
It's easy to get down on Toronto for not winning at home in Game 1. Still, let's not forget the Raptors had a better season record than Miami by a whopping eight games, won three of four against the Heat during the regular season and is playing at Air Canada Centre where they averaged 104.4 points per game. 
Now this isn't to cast a blind eye to how poorly DeMar DeRozan and Lowry are playing. The Raptors live-and-die with their two backcourt All-Stars. Toronto's backcourt shot just 12-of-35 (34.2 percent) from the floor in Game 1. Lowry had a mere seven points, including a half-court 3-pointer that forced overtime. Miami, by contrast, had its backcourt connect on 20 of 41 (48.7 percent) shots from the field. Yet the Raptors still took the Heat to overtime. 
Lowry and DeRozan didn't play well either in the Raptors' first-round series against the Pacers combining to shoot less than 32 percent from the field. During the season, the Raptors hit 37 percent of their 3-pointers. Only four teams had a higher percentage. 
Toronto's backcourt stars are well overdue to shoot much better. If those two just have their average games, the Raptors should easily prevail given how well some of their other players such as center Jonas Valanciunas are performing.  
I'm not advocating the Raptors are the superior team and should win the series. But I do believe the zig-zag pattern is a fit here. It's a natural letdown spot for the Heat while the Raptors should display a game-of-the-year type mentality. 

A mere 12 hours after dispatching the Chris Paul and Blake Griffin-less Clippers in six games, the Trail Blazers left for the Bay Area to meet Golden State for this Sunday matinee. 
The Warriors are an outstanding team even without injured Stephen Curry. But they also have a nice scheduling edge here, too. Golden State has been idle since Wednesday. Once word came out that Paul and Griffin were out it was a foregone conclusion that Portland would win its first round series. So the rested Warriors should be well prepared for the Trail Blazers. 
Not only do the Warriors have a sense of urgency to play well at home knowing that Curry is likely out at least the next three games, but they won't be taking the underdog Trail Blazers for granted. That's because Portland dealt Golden State its worst loss of the season, 137-105, on Feb. 19 in Portland. It was quite a different story when the teams last met. The Warriors beat the Trail Blazers, 136-111, at Oracle Arena on April 3. 
The Warriors also hosted the Trail Blazers on March 11 and won, 128-112. Portland does not have a good history on the road against the Warriors failing to cover in 21 of its past 28 visits. 
Golden State is tough to game plan against even without Curry because of its versatility and multi-dimensional players. The Warriors, right now, can stake their claim to being among the greatest teams in NBA history. I think Portland's Terry Stotts is one of the more underrated coaches, but he's pressed for time to properly game plan for the Warriors because of the short time span after his team finished off the Clippers. He and his staff had to fully concentrate on getting past the Clippers.  

No Chris Paul, no Blake Griffin. No chance for the Clippers. We know this. They know this. But the Clippers still have enough pride and talent to not go gently into the night against one of the weaker and more inexperienced playoff teams.
We also know the Clippers don't perform well under playoff pressure. The Clippers blew a seven-point against the Thunder in the final minute of their Game 5 Western Conference semifinal game to lose that series two seasons ago and last season blew a three-to-one game series lead against the Rockets. 
But now the pressure is on Portland not the Clippers. Nothing is expected of the Clippers with Paul and Griffin out. So I'm expecting the Clippers to actually step up. 
This is what Clippers coach Doc Rivers was quoted as saying, "I think now that we know what to expect, you'll see a much better game for a full game. We win Game 6, it's right back to our momentum. ... We're still focused and ready to go." 
Usually I don't put much stock in what a coach says. But this quote rings true. 
The Trail Blazers have a lot of youth. They are inexperienced in big games and have a poor recent playoff history especially in a favorite's role. The Clippers still have talent and pride with DeAndre Jordan, J.J. Redick, Jamal Crawford and Paul Pierce. These guys aren't exactly stiffs. 

I don't see upstart Charlotte beating the veteran Heat three straight times. Charlotte got back into the series by winning the last two - both at home.

Now the Hornets visit AmericanAirlines Arena. 
Here is Miami's history at home: The Heat have won and covered their last eight home games. Each win was by eight or more points. They are 13-0 at home during their past 13 first-round playoff games and 13-2 in their last 15 home postseason contests. The two losses during this span were to San Antonio. 
Now here is Charlotte's history on the road and in the playoffs: The Hornets are 2-19 in their last 21 games at Miami. This includes losses in Game 1 and Game 2 of this series by a combined 44 points. The Hornets are 0-9 in their last nine playoff games. 
The Hornets got back into the series by taking advantage of their homecourt and clamping down defensively defeating Miami, 96-80 and 89-85, the past two games. The savvy, veteran-laden Heat are picking their spots. Now is their chance.  
Charlotte has failed to cover eight of the last 11 times following a victory. The Hornets have surrendered an average of 112 points to the Heat in four games at AmericanAirlines Arena this season. 
Miami committed the fourth-fewest fouls in the league during the regular season. Yet the Heat have been whistled for 18 more fouls than Charlotte. I don't see the Hornets getting the benefit of their flops on the road. The Hornets have shot 28 more free throws than Miami in the series, connecting on 82.8 percent from the line. The league has to be aware of that discrepancy. The Hornets are an excellent free throw shooting team, but they aren't that good averaging 79 percent from the line during the regular season.  
The Hornets, to their credit, won these past two games minus injured Nicolas Batum. He's a game-time decision because of an ankle injury. If Batum remains out it's a plus for the Heat. Batum is one of Charlotte's three best players. But even if Batum plays, he could be rusty and could disrupt Charlotte's rhythm. 

Down 3-1 to the Thunder, I don't see the Mavericks' proud veterans mailing in this game. Dirk Nowitzki and Co. have a lot of pride and are much better coached under Rick Carlisle than Oklahoma City is under rookie NBA coach Billy Donovan. 

Wesley Matthews has done an excellent job keeping a frustrated Kevin Durant in check. I'm sure the Mavericks didn't appreciate Durant conking Justin Anderson on the head during the final minute of the Thunder's 119-108 Game 4 victory this past Saturday. 
The point spread is so large because the Mavericks' point guards can't match Russell Westbrook and Oklahoma City has a huge rebounding edge. But Enes Kanter and Steven Adams - although coming off strong performances - are not exactly All-Stars. The bar isn't set that high for Dallas to hang in. 
Oklahoma City does have better depth, but the Mavericks will have had two full days off to rest and game plan. Dallas has covered in nine of its last 12 road games. The Mavericks have proven tough, too, when going against upper tier opponents covering seven of the past nine times versus foes with a home winning percentage above .600.
The Thunder has lost 15 times when leading in the fourth quarter. A lot of that is on Donovan, who gets outcoached. Oklahoma City is a mediocre 6-6 straight-up in its last 12 games. The Mavericks also have a strong history when playing in Oklahoma City covering 71 percent of the time there during their past 29 road trips. 
 

I expect Stephen Curry to play - and play well. He has recovered from his sprained ankle. The Warriors are due for a good shooting game. They averaged an NBA-best 48.7 percent from the floor during the regular season, but have shot just 42.9 percent in Game 1 and 43 percent in Game 3. Houston is not a strong defensive club. Only five clubs gave up more points per game than the Rockets.

The Warriors received their wake-up call and the Rockets got their measure of respect during Thursday night's 97-96 Houston victory. Despite that loss, Golden State still has defeated Houston 14 of the past 16 times. The Rockets are 2-7 ATS following a victory. 

No home-court isn't going to matter. Neither is better execution. The crippled Grizzlies are simply totally overmatched by the Spurs. It's not a fluke San Antonio has held the Grizzlies to an average of 71 points in jumping out to a 2-0 series lead. The Spurs are one of the greatest defensive teams ever. 

San Antonio's average win in the series is by 29 points. So I'm surprised this line opened so short. The Grizzlies, down their two best players - Marc Gasol and Mike Conley - can't compete inside nor outside. They are shooting less than 36 percent from the floor during the series. Memphis is down to using Jordan Farmar and Xavier Munford as its point guards. Those two are a combined 10-of-26 from the field.
The Spurs' bench is easily better than the Grizzlies' starters outscoring them by an average of 16 points. Zach Randolph is the only decent Grizzlies' player still standing and he's totally frustrated shooting 26.7 percent in the series while averaging a puny 8.5 points a game. 
It was easy to see this coming as the Grizzlies are 1-12 in their last 13 games, including losing their past six games. The Spurs have whipped the Grizzlies seven consecutive times, winning the last two in Memphis by an average of 17 points. All together, San Antonio has covered seven of its last nine in Memphis. 
The Spurs have destroyed the Grizzlies despite playing sloppy at times. Don't look for the veteran Spurs to screw around here. They're looking for a sweep and are not going to let up. There is nothing the Grizzlies can do about it given their multiple injuries. They know that. They did well to make the postseason. 

This isn't your normal No. 1 versus No. 8 seed matchup. Cleveland has the big names - LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love - but the talent gap between these two clubs isn't as large as perceived. 
Detroit has the best big man on the floor, Andre Drummond, and has the athletic and tall forwards who can bother James with Tobias Harris, Marcus Morris and Stanley Johnson. At point guard, Reggie Jackson has more playoff experience than Irving. 
The Pistons won three of their four meetings against Cleveland this season. They should be loose having last made the playoffs six seasons ago. All the pressure is on the Cavaliers. 

Another big factor in Detroit's favor is the coaching matchup of Stan Van Gundy, who I consider one of the better coaches in the NBA, against inexperienced Tyronn Lue. The Cavaliers were 30-11 under David Blatt and 27-14 under Lue. The Cavaliers lost straight-up eight times when favored by seven or more points under Lue. 

Brad Stevens has gotten as much of his limited Celtics team as possible. The Celtics lack Atlanta's front-line talent - especially dealing with Al Horford and Paul Millsap - and lack the size to take advantage of the Hawks' rebounding weakness. 

The Hawks aren't as good as their 60-win team of a year ago, but they are better than their 48-win total shows. No team was stronger defensively than the Hawks following the All-Star break. The Hawks allowed just 96.8 points per 100 possessions during that span with San Antonio the next closest at 99.3.

Boston is much worse on the road. The Celtics have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 away matchups. 

 

Phoenix actually is playing well winning back-to-back road games and covering four of its last five. 
The Suns have double revenge motivation having been blown out in their last two games against the Kings - both in Sacramento. 
The spot sets up well for the Suns. The Kings are off an emotional and highly satisfying 114-112 victory this past Saturday night against Oklahoma City. That was the Kings' final home game of the season and their last game ever at Sleep Train Arena as they will be playing in a new downtown arena next season. The Kings drew great crowd support in the victory against Oklahoma City.
I don't see the Kings having nearly the motivation as they go on their final road trip. All-Star center DeMarcus Cousins already has said he won't play on the road trip in order to rest his sore feet. Point guard Rajon Rondo, the Kings' second-best player, has missed missed three of the past four games and also may not play. The Kings' bench scoring is down, too, with Omri Casspi and Marco Belinelli both sidelined. 

We know the Nets are playing the string out. But let's be realistic about the Wizards, too. They are three games below .500 and 3 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot in the East behind Detroit with five games remaining. 
The only consistency the Wizards have shown is an ability to be inconsistent. Lack of effort and low basketball IQ always are in play with the Wizards. This is their first home game since returning from a crucial - and unsuccessful - five-game West Coast trip. The last two times Washington played at Verizon Center it fell by 21 points to the Hawks and lost in double overtime to the Timberwolves. The loss to Minnesota likely doomed Washington to non-playoff status even before the five-game road swing.
I would be surprised if Randy Wittman - someone I regard as one of the weaker head coaches in the league - is back next season for Washington.
But what about the Nets? The bad news is no Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young, their two best players. Both have been shut down for the season. The oddsmaker is spooked by the Nets after seeing them get blown out by the decimated Pelicans, 106-87, two days ago. Bojan Bogdanovic, who may be Brooklyn's best player now, was rested that game and point guard Donald Sloan missed the game due to illness. Both should play against the Wizards. The loss of Lopez is somewhat mitigated in this matchup because the Wizards have gotten smaller this season.
The Nets have a bunch of young, unproven players drawing big minutes now. The pluses in that are fresh legs - important this late in the season - and the ability to play hard with futures up in the air. The Nets aren't tanking either since their prize lottery picks goes to Boston. The backdoor should be wide open, too, with the Wizards playing at the Pistons on Friday in their biggest game of what's left in their season.

After 54 consecutive regular-season home victories, the Warriors finally lost at Oracle Arena knocked off by the Celtics, 109-106, in their last game two nights ago. How will Golden State respond? I believe they respond in a big way with a blowout home victory against Portland, a team that dealt the Warriors their most lopsided loss of the season back in February.
Golden State hasn't dropped back-to-back games all season. The Warriors' average winning margin following each of their losses this season is 13.4 points. They are 19-9 ATS the past 28 times after a defeat. 
The Warriors don't play again until Tuesday when they host the lowly Timberwolves. So a full focused effort should be there. Golden State remains highly motivated to set the single-season wins record. The Warriors still haven't secured the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference either. The Warriors need to win five of their last six games to break the Bulls' 1995-96 record of 72 victories in a season.  
Portland is one of those tough-at-home, bad-on-the-road type teams. The Trail Blazers won their seventh straight home game defeating the Heat Saturday night. But have lost eight of their past nine road matchups. They are playing without rest, which is much rougher this late in the season.  
Golden State leads the NBA in scoring at 115 points per game. Portland has allowed an average of 118.9 points during its past nine away contests. The Trail Blazers don't have a good history either when playing at Golden State failing to cover in 20 of their last 27 visits. 
The Trail Blazers need their best player, Damian Lillard, to have a big game. Lillard, however, is in a slump shooting less than 30 percent from the floor during his last five games. Without a big game from Lillard, the Trail Blazers don't have nearly enough scoring to keep up with the Warriors. 

Since Jan. 10, only Golden State and San Antonio own better home records than Portland's 16-3 mark. Not only do I believe the Trail Blazers are better than the Celtics, but they are home and in a better spot. 
This is Boston's third of five consecutive West Coast games. Brad Stevens has squeezed out all of Boston's talent - there just isn't that much - and the Celtics have been hitting a late season wall going 4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS in their last nine games. Boston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road matchups with the lone cover coming against the 76ers. When stepping up on the road against foes with a winning home record, the Celtics are a terrible 2-12 ATS.
Boston's best player is guard Isaiah Thomas, but he's trumped by Portland's star backcourt tandem of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. Not only is Portland fighting for playoff seeding - with the possibility they might get edged out of the postseason - but they have revenge for an embarrassing 23-point loss earlier this month to Boston in which Lillard and McCollum did not shoot well. 
Portland is averaging 114.4 points during its last 10 home games and has won five in a row at Moda Center. The Trail Blazers are rested having been home for a week. They are 9-2 ATS when playing on two days rest. 

The Warriors are chasing the 1995-96 Bulls for best record in a season. They are far superior to Utah. The spread is low enough to back Golden State.
The line is low because Utah has won eight of its last 10, is trying to hold on to a playoff spot and the Warriors had to play last night beating Washington at home, 102-94. But those aren't strong enough reasons to not fade the Jazz.
Golden State also is playing well winning 12 of its last 13, including five in a row. The Warriors have covered 58 percent of their road games this season despite frequently laying inflated numbers. The Warriors also are 16-2 when playing without rest. Golden State has owned the series winning 10 of the last 11 versus Utah, covering six of the past eight. The Warriors are 3-0 this season against the Jazz with an average winning margin of 14 points.  
Utah can't stay with Golden State offensively ranking 28th in scoring at less than 98 points per game, which includes a 123-75 rout of the Lakers this past Monday. That was a season high in points for the Jazz and could be another reason why this line is lower than I anticipated. The Lakers, though, are pathetic and quit in that game. 
So the Jazz go from the worst to the best. Utah has played only one team that would make the playoffs right now - Oklahoma City - during its last seven games. In addition to playing the Lakers during this span, the Jazz also played the Suns, Bulls, Bucks and Timberwolves. Utah has failed to cover eight of the last nine times when playing an opponent with a winning record. The evidence is just not there for the Jazz to step up against the best team in basketball that has motivated and monster matchup edges.  

I have no doubt Oakland is superior to East Tennessee State. My hesitation about backing Oakland in this Vegas 16 Tournament - the most minor of all the post-season  tournaments - is how motivated will the Golden Grizzlies be after having their sights set on reaching the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011.
That didn't happen because Wright State upset Oakland in the Horizon League tournament semifinals. That occurred back on March 7. The Golden Grizzlies had not played since then until dispatching Towson, 90-72, on Monday. 
Now Oakland gets East Tennessee State, which beat a lackluster Louisiana Tech, 88-83, on Monday. I'm convinced Oakland is past its NCAA Tournament disappointment and will be focused to win this inaugural Vegas 16 Tournament. 
"That's why we wanted to be in this tournament because with the heartbreak of (the Wright State) loss and the expectations of the team, the expectations that we had put on ourselves, I don't think we could have been ready to play four days later in a minor tournament," Oakland coach Greg Kampe was quoted as saying. "So that's why we wanted to be in this and now we're making this a season, and we're going to try to win a season."
A motivated Oakland should destroy East Tennessee State, which hails from the Southern League. Oakland finished second to Valparaiso in the underrated Horizon League. No team scored more points per game than the Golden Grizzlies, who averaged 86.4 points and also had the seventh highest free throw percentage and 13th-best 3-point percentage in the country. East Tennessee State ranks 228th defensively giving up 73.8 points per game. 
Oakland features one of the best guards in the nation in Kay Felder, who led the country in assists with 9.3 a game and was the fourth-leading scorer in the nation at 24.2 points a game. The Golden Grizzlies are an impressive 22-6-1 ATS versus above .500 teams, are 24-5-1 ATS following a victory and have covered in their last six non-league games.

Absolutely must-win spot. Revenge angle. Better team. All of those fit why I like the Wizards to steamroll the Lakers. 
This is the start of a crucial five-game West Coast trip for the Wizards, who have lost two in a row after winning five straight to put their postseason hopes in dire straits. The Wizards have about a 12 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to several analytical websites. A loss to the Lakers would realistically kill any playoff hopes. 
The Wizards do draw the Lakers, Kings and Suns - three teams playing for next season - on this trip. However, they also get the Clippers and Warriors, who are 34-0 at home. So Washington can't afford a slip up here. 
If playoff incentive isn't enough, the Wizards should be sky-high for this matchup remembering how the Lakers beat them, 108-104, in front of a full house at Verizon Center in early December. Kobe Bryant was instrumental in that victory scoring 31 points. I'd be shocked if Bryant even produced a decent game here dealing with a right shoulder injury and shooting less than 36 percent from the field. 
During their five-game win streak, the Wizards held opponents to 41.3 percent shooting and 92.4 points a game. But in their last two games, the Hawks shot 53.6 percent from the floor and the Timberwolves made 53.1 percent of their field goals. The Lakers can't get hot like that. They rank last in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. Only two teams score fewer points per game than the Lakers. 
Making things worse for LA, is emerging point guard D'Angelo Russell isn't likely to play due to a sprained ankle. Few point guards are better than Washington's John Wall, who is going for his ninth consecutive double-double. 
The Lakers are one of the worst home teams in the league at 10-26, 16-20 ATS. They have failed to cover in five of their last six at Staples Center. The Wizards have covered during four of their last five road games against the Lakers. 

These two were long shots entering the NCAA Tournament, but here they are in the Sweet 16. I believe Gonzaga is for real while Syracuse is a tier lower than the Bulldogs catching several breaks to reach this point. 
The Bulldogs made their move winning the West Coast Conference by beating Portland, BYU and St. Mary's by an average of 13 points per game. Then in this NCAA Tournament, the Bulldogs stretched their winning and covering streak to seven in a row beating Seton Hall by 16 points and Utah by 23. Seton Hall had entered the NCAA Tournament off upsets of Xavier and Villanova. 
Syracuse was lucky to have even gotten a bid to play in the tournament losing five of its last six games entering the Big Dance. The Orangemen drew Dayton, which was 4-4 and 1-7 ATS in its last eight games, in the opening round. The Orange then got to meet overmatched Middle Tennessee State. which just two days earlier had posted one of the greatest upsets in NCAA Tourney history defeating Michigan State as a 16 1/2-points underdog. Neither Dayton nor Middle Tennessee State was nearly as good as Seton Hall and Utah.  
The Bulldogs have the height, offensive rebounding, passing skills and shooting ability to beat Syracuse's vaunted zone defense with studs  Domantas Sabonis and Kyle Wiltjer. Sabonis. Gonzaga has scored 82 or more points in five of its last seven games while shooting close to 52 percent from the floor in its last five matchups. The Bulldogs are doing it on the defensive end, too, holding Utah to 42 percent shooting. The Utes averaged 48.8 percent from the field, 10th-best in the nation. Utah could manage just 59 points against the Bulldogs. Seton Hall scored only 52 points. 
I always like to back a team that shoots better from the free throw line than their opponent and that's the case here in a huge way with the Bulldogs. Gonzaga ranks 15th in the country in free throw percentage at 75.8 percent. Syracuse rates 221st at 68.6 percent. 

I'm going to fire now on the Nets anticipating that Tyronn Lue is going to rest some of his key Cavaliers, maybe even LeBron James, which would likely result in a lower number. The Cavaliers are playing for the fifth time in seven days and off a hard-fought 113-104 home win against Milwaukee last night with James and Kyrie Irving each logging at least 37 minutes. 
The Nets' roster can't compare to Cleveland's. But Brooklyn is playing had and with spirit. The Nets' young players are trying to prove themselves. Sean Kilpatrick is providing an upgrade on Donald Sloan averaging 18 points during his last five games and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is back from an ankle injury. These under-the-radar players will give a full effort - something you can't assume the Cavaliers will have in this road flat spot. Cleveland is 3-11-2 ATS its last 16 road games when going against a foe with a losing home record. The Cavs also have failed to cover the last four times following a victory. 
I like the Nets' roster composition and energy much more now with Joe Johnson gone. A key to picking the right spot to back the Nets is making sure center Brook Lopez is playing. Brooklyn is 8-4 ATS the past 12 times Lopez has suit up. 
The Nets have double revenge motivation and have covered the past four times versus above .500 opponents. 

This is a natural letdown spot for the Hornets traveling to play a weak foe less than 24 hours after a stunning 91-88 home victory against San Antonio last night. The Hornets came from 23 points down to pull out the improbable win against the Spurs. There is a fatigue factor, too, for the Hornets playing for the fifth time in seven days.
The Nets have defeated the Hornets six of the past eight times at home. Brook Lopez, the Nets' best player, is expected to play after sitting because of a virus in the Nets' last game, a 115-103 road loss to the Pistons this past Saturday. The Nets are 7-4 ATS the past 11 times Lopez has played. Lopez's presence is huge because the Nets lack an inside game without him. 
Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS following a loss of more than 10 points and also is 8-2 ATS after not covering the spread in its previous game. 

A 94-85 home loss to Utah last night puts the Bucks 10 games under .500 and six games out of the last playoff spot in the East with a dozen games left. So, no, the Bucks aren't going to make the playoffs.
This is something Jason Kidd realizes. That's why he's made the decision to cut back on his starter's minutes and use the rest of the season to evaluate his entire roster. 
That decision helps make the Pistons even a stronger home favorite against the Bucks. 
Detroit defeated Milwaukee, 102-91, on Feb. 27 in the team's last meeting. That was in Milwaukee and the Pistons won despite making just 42 percent of their shots from the floor. The Pistons hold two strong edges on the Bucks - rebounding and point guard play with Reggie Jackson. The Bucks are thin at the key position. Michael Carter-Williams is out for the year. So is O.J. Mayo, who while not a true point guard was taking some of the load off by helping out with the ballhandling. 
The Bucks were outrebounded by the Jazz, 45-27, last night grabbing a laughable two offensive rebounds. Utah ranks fifth in the league in rebounding margin. Detroit is fourth. Andre Drummond is the No. 1 rebounder in the NBA. The Bucks rank 23rd in rebounding margin. 
The spot is good also for Detroit. The Pistons are in the fourth of a franchise-long nine straight home games. They are 20-11-2 (64%) ATS at home this season. Detroit also is 9-2-1 ATS the past 12 times hosting a team with a winning percentage of less than .400. 
The Pistons are mere percentage points out of the final playoff spot in the East. They know the path to the playoffs lies in beating bad teams at home. Stan Van Gundy ripped Detroit's lack of defense in its last game, a lackluster 115-103 win against the Nets this past Saturday. 
Milwaukee is 9-26 in its road games. The Bucks have a losing spread mark away from home. They are playing without rest and finally realizing their playoff hopes aren't going to happen. 

Northern Iowa has a lot of things you look for in an underdog at this point of the season: The Panthers have NCAA Tournament experience, are well-coached, are hot with 13 wins in their last 14 games (12-1-1 ATS), rank 12th in the country defensively, rank 17th in free throw percentage and can make 3-pointers. They also have beaten a number of top teams, including North Carolina, Iowa State, Stephen F. Austin and Wichita State twice.

Yet the Panthers are downgraded because they are a mid-major and because of their miraculous 75-72 first-round upset victory against Texas when Paul Jesperson hit a buzz-beater from beyond half court.

Perhaps the Panthers don't have the fancy talent that some of the major conference teams have. But there are intangibles at work here. Ben Jacobson has been Northern Iowa's coach the past 10 seasons - and he's not going anywhere. He has honed an effective, close-knit system with excellent team work and chemistry. The Panthers are not about individuals. They fit well into a team structure. This might sound like a cliche, but teamwork can't be underestimated with an underdog at this late point of the season.

Texas A&M had not been to the NCAA Tournament since 2011 until this season. The Aggies were lucky to meet Green Bay in the first round, a team that doesn't play good defense at this high level. Northern Iowa holds foes to 63.2 points a game. The Panthers are 8-0-1 ATS the past nine times playing opponents with a winning percentage above .600.

The Clippers are in angry mood after Doc Rivers justifiably ripped his team following a 113-102 road loss to Memphis last night. The Clippers were beaten straight-up as double-digit favorites. 

Now the Clippers draw a team as decimated with injuries as the Grizzlies in the Pelicans. New Orleans has five players out for the season, including key cogs Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon. They soon may be joined by Anthony Davis, the team's one star.
Davis missed the second half of New Orleans' last game this past Friday with knee soreness. He also has a sore shoulder. There is talk the Pelicans may shut Davis down for the season since they aren't making the playoffs. Davis certainly isn't likely to play today. All of this has to be disheartening to an already disheartened Pelicans team. 
New Orleans is 2-9 in its last 11 games. The Pelicans' only victories during this span have come against the Kings. They are 2-7 ATS versus opponents with a winning record and are 1-5 ATS in their last six overall games. 
The Clippers have a good history of bouncing back - 9-2 ATS the past 11 times following a loss - and have defeated the Pelicans in all three meetings this season and 11 of the last 13 times.  

The Clippers are less awesome minus Blake Griffin. They don't have the star power to cover double-digit type road spreads in letdown spots, which this matchup is for them. 

The Clippers just buried the Rockets in Houston two nights ago in a highly-satisfying grudge match victory. Before that game, the Clippers played the Spurs and hosted the Cavaliers in a nationally televised matchup this past Sunday. Now the Clippers get the crippled Grizzlies. This is LA's third of five straight road games. The Clippers play at New Orleans on Sunday and then travel to Golden State in a real test matchup for them. So this looms as a flat spot for the Clippers.
LA is 1-5 ATS following a straight-up win and can be excused if it doesn't take the Grizzlies serious. Memphis is down Marc Gasol and Mike Conley. The Grizzlies' third best player, Zach Randolph, has missed the last seven games with a knee injury. 
The Grizzlies have lost four in a row, three of those coming on the road. They are fighting hard to maintain their playoff spot. This is a stop-the-pain game for the Grizzlies, who always have held a strong home-court. Memphis has won five of its last seven games at FedEx Forum despite its injuries. The Grizzlies have covered 73 percent of their last 22 home contests. They also have covered in 11 of the past 13 meetings versus the Clippers.
There's a chance both Randolph and Vince Carter, who has missed the last four games with a strained calf, return for this game. That would be an added bonus but I like the Grizzlies in this spread range even at far less than 100 percent. 
Lance Stephenson and Matt Barnes, two emotional players and former Clippers, are playing at high levels for Memphis. Stephenson is averaging 23.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 5.8 assists in his last four games, while Barnes has contributed an average of 16 points and 8.2 rebounds during his last five games. Both of these players will be sky-high for this matchup. 

The monster difference between the Big 12 - arguably the best conference in the nation - and the Ivy League doesn't merit this short of a spread. 
Baylor is way too athletic and talented for Yale, which has been able to feast on Ivy League competition while the Bears have gone against some of the best teams in the country. 
There is no chance either of Baylor overlooking the Bulldogs after the Bears were stunned, 57-56, by 14th-seeded Georgia State in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last year. 
Yale hasn't played in the NCAA Tournament since 1962! The Bulldogs also have been distracted by team captain Jack Montague's recent expulsion from the school amid rumors of sexual misconduct. He was the team's fourth leading scorer. 

Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne is well rested and excited about making its first NIT appearance since elevating to Division I status 16 years ago. 
San Diego State is not rested and is not excited about hosting this NIT matchup. It's a huge letdown for the Aztecs to play in the NIT rather than the NCAA Tournament. This is a short turnaround for San Diego State having played for the third time in three days this past Saturday. The Aztecs have had a sellout during their last 72 home games. That streak is going to end here as Viejas Arena only is expected to be half full. I don't see the Aztecs being mentally and physically ready to cover this big of a number. 
San Diego State has the No. 4 defense in the country. However, the Aztecs average only 68 points per game and their Mountain West Conference had a down season this year. San Diego State also has concerns about the health of its backcourt. 
IPFW has an RPI rating of 72, which is comparable to the rating Fresno State had prior to the Mountain West Conference Tournament. The Bulldogs upset the Aztecs, 68-63, to win the Mountain West Conference Tournament. 
The Mastodons have the best player in the Summit league in guard Max Landis. They are well rested since the Summit League's tournament was played the previous week giving the Mastodons an eight-day break to recharge their batteries. 
IPFW can score averaging 80.2 points a game, 26th-best in the nation. The Mastodons rank fourth in the country in 3-pointers made and are eighth in shooting percentage. The Mastodons also are road tested having played 20 times away from Fort Wayne while going 12-4 (75%) ATS in their lined road contests. 

Short-handed New Orleans is way overmatched to begin with and the situation makes it worse.
New Orleans is 1-7 in its last eight games. This marks the depth-shy Pelicans' third road game in four days and fourth in six days. They have lost five players for the season, including two of their top four players in Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon. The Pelicans also could be missing point guard Norris Cole for a fourth straight game. He's dealing with a back problem. 
The Pelicans are 7-26 on the road with five straight road losses. They stand a far better chance of winning away from home in their next game when they meet Sacramento on Wednesday. 
Golden State ranks No. 1 in points per game and 3-point shooting. No guard tandem comes close to making as many 3-pointers as Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. 
The Pelicans rank 25th in points allowed per game, 25th in defensive field goal percentage and 26th in 3-point defensive field goal percentage. They can't stop the Warriors. They can only hope to stay within shouting distance. That's likely going to mean a strong game from their streak-shooting top 3-point man, Ryan Anderson. However, Anderson is in a cold spell missing 23 of 28 shots from beyond the arc during the last five games. 

The Warriors own the best start in NBA history at 59-6. They are 30-0 at home. They have beaten the Pelicans eight times in a row at home. You always worry about a team being overconfident and flat when laying this many points. But I see the Warriors maintaining their intensity. 
Golden State received a wake-up call from the Suns during its last game, a 123-116 home win two days ago. The Warriors trailed by nine points in the fourth quarter in that game. The Warriors do not play again until Wednesday when it hosts the Knicks. So there is no look-ahead negative factor. The Warriors have dominated Western Conference foes, too, ATS-wise going 21-10-1 (68 percent) the past 32 times. 
 

Nearly decimated New Orleans gave it all it had before losing in overtime to Memphis last night. The Pelicans have lost five players for the season, including key cogs Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon. All but one of New Orleans' starters played at least 41 minutes last night. Anthony Davis logged 47 minutes. Top reserve Ryan Anderson went nearly 37 minutes. Point guard Norris Cole didn't play and is questionable for this matchup. 
This is the Pelicans' fourth game in six days. The Bucks have been idle since Wednesday and have a strong revenge motivation after the Pelicans embarrassed them, 116-99, at New Orleans on Jan. 23. The Pelicans shot an incredible 17 of 31 from 3-point range in that win. 
New Orleans is 1-6 in its last seven games and out of playoff contention. The Pelicans are 7-25 on the road, including losing 23 of their past 30 away contests. The Bucks are seven games above .500 at home. 

Both teams have strong offenses, but Fresno State is better defensively and is the fresher team. The Bulldogs also are peaking at the right time winning nine of their past 10, including their last seven games. 
Colorado State isn't as deep as Fresno State and is playing for the third time in three days. The Rams played in the late game last night exerting a lot of energy in upsetting Boise State, 88-81, as a seven-point underdog. 
The Bulldogs have the Mountain West Conference Player of the Year in Marvelle Harris and beat Colorado State during their lone meeting this season, 87-73, at home on nine days ago. 

Phoenix is 3-2 in its last five games and coming off an impressive 109-100 road win against the Grizzlies this past Sunday. But don't for an instant think the Suns are any good. They aren't. Neither are the Knicks. This is bad on bad and the point spread has become out of whack here.
The Knicks opened three-point favorites. Now that's been reversed. This is a clear over adjustment. The Suns not only have failed to cover the last four times they were home favorites, but lost straight-up each time. They also were 0-10 ATS following a victory until upsetting Memphis. 
Carmelo Anthony will be the best player on the court and he's been hot - averaging 26.4 points in his last five games. Star Knicks rookie Kristaps Porzingis should be less rusty, too, after shooting just 3-for-11 from the field in last night's road loss to the Nuggets. He had missed the game before that with a bruised leg. 
The Knicks were bad in that loss. But in their two prior games, they beat the Pistons by 13 at home and lost to the hot Celtics by one point on the road. New York was 3-0 ATS in its last three away contests before laying an egg against the Nuggets.  

Penn has depth and is much improved from last season. The Quakers nearly upset Princeton as seven-point home 'dogs losing 73-71 in overtime back in January. The Quakers blew an 11-point lead with four minutes left.
So Penn has strong revenge motivation for this final game of the season. Keep in mind there is no conference tournament in the Ivy League. That's a bad break for the Tigers, whose hopes of winning the conference were dashed when Yale clinched the title with a victory this past Saturday. 
Princeton is way overpriced in this matchup. Not only has Penn covered 13 of the last 16 in this series, including four of the past five, but the Tigers are 1-4 in their last five home games and 1-5 ATS at home versus foes with losing road records. The Tigers also are 0-4 ATS the past four times following a victory. 

I want the Warriors off their most shocking and worst-played game of the season, a 112-95 road loss to the Lakers Sunday afternoon. The Warriors haven't shot as bad from 3-point range as they did against the Lakers - 4-for-30 - since December of 2013. 
I have to believe the Warriors are going to be in a super kill mood returning home where a victory tonight would break the Bulls' NBA record for consecutive home wins. The Warriors scheduled a shootaround today even though they played yesterday. It's the first time they have had a shootaround the day of a game when playing without rest and it demonstrates how serious they are taking this matchup. 
Golden State is 20-7-1 ATS the past 28 times when playing on the second of consecutive days and also 15-5 ATS the past 20 times after not covering the spread during their last game. 
Orlando couldn't give the Warriors a battle when it was in a much better spot playing at home on Feb. 25. The Magic lost 130-114 as eight-point underdogs. Stephen Curry scored 51 points in that contest, but the rest of the Warriors didn't play that well. It was a flat game for Golden State and they still beat the Magic by 16 points on the road. 
Now the Magic not only face what should be an aroused and embarrassed Warriors squad, but also are off a highly-deflating, 102-84 home loss to the lowly Suns this past Friday. That dropped the Magic's record to 8-21 in their last 29 games and put a stop to any realistic talk about them making the playoffs. This is what Magic coach Scott Skiles was quoted as saying following that defeat. "We should probably stop talking about (the playoff chase) right now because this was a game we had to have." 
Orlando is 4-9 ATS following a double-digit loss at home. 

Yes, Purdue is tough at home. But the oddsmaker isn't giving enough respect to Wisconsin with a line this high. The Badgers have won 11 of their last 12 games - losing only to Michigan State during this span - while going 10-2 ATS. 
The Badgers are playing their best ball after a slow start. They need this game to lock up their 18th consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance and earn a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament. Wisconsin has covered 10 of the past 11 times following a victory.
Purdue is 22-1 SU in its last 23 home games. But the Boilermakers haven't been that sharp failing to cover in five of their last eight games in West Lafayette, including their past three home contests. Purdue caught Wisconsin early in the season before the Badgers caught fire beating them by six points. The last time the Boilermakers swept the Badgers was 2008-09. 
This has been a road series with the visitor covering six of the past seven times. It also has been a close series with three of the past four games decided by six points or fewer. Note, too, that Purdue is 1-6-1 ATS when playing a foe with a winning percentage above .600. 

Detroit played last night, but it's Portland that carries a high fatigue rating in this matchup. The Pistons were idle for two days before losing to the Knicks, 102-89, on Saturday. Now they return home where they have covered 64 percent of their games at The Palace of Auburn Hills. 
Prior to losing to the Knicks, the Pistons had held their previous five opponents to an average of 93.6 points a game. Detroit is a top 10 defensive club and thanks to Andre Drummond one of the best rebounding teams in the league. 
Portland ranks 16th defensively and is at the end of a its six-game road trip. This marks the Trail Blazers' fourth away matchup in six days. Portland stayed hot opening with three victories on their trip, but now have lost two in a row falling to Boston and Toronto. You would have to go back to 2006 to find the last time the Trail Blazers finished a trip of at least six games with a winning record. 
This is statement time for the Pistons if they are serious about making the playoffs. The key for the Pistons is finding their offense. They were held to 81 points on the road against the Spurs this past Wednesday and only managed 89 versus the Knicks last night. Keep in mind, though, the Spurs are the No. 1 defensive team in the league. The Pistons just suffered an off-game against the Knicks as Reggie Jackson, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Marcus Morris, who had been playing well since coming to Detroit, were a combined 8-for-37 from the floor versus New York. 
I envision Stan Van Gundy having the Pistons fired up for this Sunday home game and their offense should step up versus a mediocre opposing defense and tired opponent. 

A month ago Avery Bradley hit a buzzer beater as the Celtics upset the Cavaliers in Cleveland, 104-103. The Cavaliers haven't forgotten. Not only is this a huge revenge spot for them, but it's a great situation, too. 
Both teams played Friday night. The Cavaliers waltzed past the Wizards, 108-83, at home. Kyrie Irving was the only Cleveland player to log more than 31 minutes. Kevin Love received the night off. He'll be fresh. 
Boston, on the other hand, had to rally from eight points down in the final four minutes to nip the lowly Knicks, 105-104, at home last night. The Celtics had to exert a lot of energy to pull out that victory. Now the Celtics immediately fly out to Cleveland for their first road game since Feb. 22. Boston has been outstanding at home, but are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four road games losing to the Timberwolves, Jazz and Bucks. The Cavaliers were idle for three days before rolling past the Wizards. They are far more rested than Boston.
The Celtics rely on fast breaks and the scoring of Isaiah Thomas. However, the Cavaliers rank fifth in defending opponents fast breaks and Thomas is shooting under 32 percent from the field against the Cavaliers in nine games against them since he joined Boston. 
This is statement time for the Cavaliers being the dominant team in the Eastern Conference. They want to prove that to the upstart Celtics and the spot lays out well for them to achieve that. 

Kentucky has much to prove on the road. I see the Wildcats bouncing back following a 12-point road loss to Vanderbilt by solidly defeating fading Florida, which has dropped three in a row and is 0-4 in its last four home games. 
I expect a much stronger defensive effort from Kentucky after John Calipari lit into his team about giving the Commodores too many layups and dunks. Star Kentucky guard Tyler Ulis also is in back bounce mode after a rare terrible performance. 
Florida is 2-8 against top 50 RIP ranked teams. The Gators are surrendering an average of 85 points during their last three games and are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games. 
The Wildcats rolled past the Gators, 80-61, nearly a month ago in the first meeting despite not having third-leading scoring Alex Poythress. The senior forward is healthy for this game. 

Memphis is 10 games above .500 and 4-2 since losing its best player, Marc Gasol, to a broken right foot. The Grizzlies are still a borderline playoff team without Gasol, at their best versus lower tier opponents such as the Nuggets. The Grizzlies have defeated Denver four straight times and are in a great spot to continue that streak.
The Grizzlies should be primed for a strong, concentrated effort after an embarrassing, 111-106, road loss to the Suns on Saturday. This is what Grizzlies point guard Mike Conley was quoted as saying following that loss: "We still feel like we are rolling right now and playing good basketball. For us to come out and not play our best, I think our focus level wasn't where it need to be." 
Denver is 13 games below .500. The Nuggets are headed for worse, too, after losing their best player, Danilo Gallinari. He suffered a severe ankle injury in the Nuggets' last game, a 122-116 overtime loss to the Mavericks. 
Gallinari is the key to the Nuggets. He leads the team in scoring at 19.5 points and also is the man when the offense breaks down -which it often does - by his ability to get to the free throw line when nothing is going on. Gallinari connects on 86.8 percent of his free throws. Even with Gallinari's great free throw percentage, the Nuggets rank 16th in the NBA in free throw percentage at 76.5 percent. Now that mediocre percentage is headed lower with Gallinari sidelined. Denver went 1-5 in December when Gallinari missed six games with another ankle injury. 
The Grizzlies still have the veteran savvy, huge point guard edge with Conley and bench to cover this short road number against a Denver team that could be reduced to a starting lineup of D.J. Augustin, Gary Harris, Kenneth Faried, Darrell Arthur and JaKarr Sampson. Faried is the only legitimate starter of that bunch.