The Heat have dominated the Knicks, winning eight of the past nine times, including going 4-0 SU and ATS at Madison Square Garden.
Miami is the superior team, but the oddsmaker has downgraded the Heat because they have injuries and played on Saturday. 
Chris Bosh, second-string point guard Beno Udrih and third-string point guard Tyler Johnson are all out for the Miami. But the Heat just signed veteran Joe Johnson, who may be able to play, and are 3-2 since the All-Streak break minus Bosh beating three decent Eastern Conference teams - Hawks, Wizards and Pacers. The Heat's lone defeats since break have come against the Warriors by six points and on the road against the Celtics, who have won 10 in a row at home. 
Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine Eastern Conference games and steps way down in class. Fatigue shouldn't be that much of a problem because the Heat played a day game yesterday. Miami has a winning record when playing without rest. They've adjusted to the loss of Bosh with veteran Luol Deng stepping up. Johnson isn't a big loss. 
The Knicks are lottery-bound again. They are a bit fat and happy after beating Orlando, 108-95, this past Friday. Before that game, though, the Knicks had dropped nine of 10. They are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. New York also isn't entirely healthy. Carmelo Anthony, Arron Afflalo and Kristaps Porzingis all missed practice on Saturday with assorted injuries. 

Colorado State defeated Nevada Reno, 76-67, as three-point home favorites three weeks ago. Nevada Reno's star point guard Marquez Coleman played 33 minutes in that game. Colorado State, which often lives and dies with the 3-pointer, missed 24 of 32 from 3-point range in that game. The Rams did get 26 more rebounds than the Wolf Pack.
Now it's rematch time and the Wolf Pack are likely to be missing Coleman, their leading scorer. He has a severely sprained ankle. It would be a surprise if he played. The Wolf Pack are not a deep team. Colorado State is not a good matchup for them. The Rams are an up-tempo, high scoring team that draws the seventh most fouls in the country. They rank 31st in the country averaging 79.9 points a game. 
The Wolf Pack have struggled with the higher scoring teams in the Mountain West Conference while faring better versus the grind-out type teams. This is the wrong opponent at the wrong time for Nevada-Reno. 

Montana is in position to grab its first regular-season win at Weber State since 2004. Weber State heavily relies on guard Jeremy Senglin and big man Joel Bolomboy. The duo has  accounted for 46 percent of the Wildcats' scoring. However, the 6-foot-9 inch Bolomboy suffered a knee injury in the Wildcats' last game and the senior power forward is not expected to play. 
This is a huge loss for the Wildcats, who don't have anyone averaging double figures in scoring aside from Senglin and Bolomboy. Losing Bolomboy also hurts the Wildcats defensively as he is their leading rebounder and shot blocker. He also averages 17.6 points a game. 
Montana ranks among the top 40 in defensive rebounding. The Grizzlies have won seven of their past eight games, including the last five. This is the first time they've been an underdog in a Big Sky Conference game all season. Martin Breunig, the Grizzlies' 6-8 senior forward, should be in line for a big game without Bolomboy to hinder him. Breunig leads the Grizzlies in scoring at 19 points a game. 
Weber State has failed to cover in its last six games, including the past three at home. The Wildcats are overrated and vulnerable missing Bolomboy. 

Even a well-coached, veteran team such as the Spurs can be excused if they are anxious to finally get home. This marks the final game of the Spurs' annual "Rodeo Road Trip." They are 6-1 in their last seven games, all on the road. 
The Rockets have covered the past six times at home versus San Antonio. Houston should have its confidence up, too, after overcoming a 21-point second-half deficit to defeat red-hot Portland on the road this past Thursday. The Spurs are just 4-9 ATS the past 13 times facing Houston. 
Both James Harden and Dwight Howard are playing well. Harden is averaging 34.4 points in five games following All-Star break. Howard has posted five double-doubles in his last six games. 

This is a big revenge spot for Indiana. The Hornets whipped the Pacers by 23 points on Feb. 10. That was the game, though, where the Hornets lost Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, their best defender, for the season. 

Despite that injury the Hornets were riding high winning five in a row until falling 114-103 on the road to the Cavaliers two nights ago. I could envision the Hornets letting down after their streak was snapped.
Paul George is having a huge season for the Pacers. George had 22 points in the Feb. 10 loss, but rookie forward Myles Turner contributed only 10 points. Turner is playing much better now averaging 17 points since the All-Star break. 
Indiana is at its point spread best versus Eastern Conference opponents going 21-10-1 ATS for 68 percent. 

San Antonio is a very good team without Kawhi Leonard. But when they have Leonard, the Spurs rank with the Warriors as the top team in the NBA. Leonard came back last night after missing three games with a calf injury and helped spark the Spurs to an easy 16-point win against the Kings. Leonard will be less rusty now that he's had a game.
Yes, the Spurs played last night. But they were idle the previous two days. So there shouldn't be a fatigue factor. The Spurs are at least several tiers higher than Utah. The Spurs have a huge coaching, guard and bench edge. 
San Antonio gives up the fewest points per game in the NBA and has the highest margin of victory. When Leonard is in the lineup, the Spurs allowed just 92 points a game. The Jazz average 98.4 a game, which ranks 26th. 

Considering the class difference and matchup - the Spurs are 2-0 versus the Jazz this season winning by 25 and 37 points - San Antonio should easily be able to cover this number. 

South Carolina is a dominant 14-1 at home this season. The Gamecocks have covered 14 of their last 17 at home, including going 9-3 ATS this season. 
Tennessee is coming off an impressive 81-65 home victory against LSU. However, the Volunteers haven't won back-to-back SEC games all season and are 0-6-1 ATS following a straight-up victory. They also aren't likely to have have leading scorer, Kevin Punter. He missed the victory against the Tigers because of a stress fracture in his foot. Teams often play well the first time without their star player with the rest of the team stepping up wanting to prove something. It's more difficult the second time without a star especially following a victory. 
Punter scored 36 points when Tennessee defeated South Carolina, 78-69, at home on Jan. 23. So this is a huge revenge spot for the Gamecocks, who lead the SEC in rebounding and have a substantial frontcourt height advantage. 

First off, UNLV isn't very good on the road. The Rebels are 2-8 in true away contests this season. They've failed to cover in their last four road matchups.
Second, the Rebels are near depleted. Already down big men Stephen Zimmerman and Ben Carter, their two leading rebounders, the Rebels now won't have key reserve Dwayne Morgan, who had been averaging close to 20 minutes. He's out with a shoulder injury. That leaves the Rebels down to six scholarship players.
The third key factor here is the situation. UNLV is off a crazy overtime victory against in-state rival Nevada this past Saturday at home. The Rebels tied the game on a 3-pointer by Patrick Macaw right before the buzzer sending the game into overtime. 
The spot is a double edge sword because not only do the Rebels have to come down from that high, pulling out a game against their most hated rival, but Boise State is rested, ready and has revenge. The Broncos last played on Wednesday. They blew a 76-61 lead to lose on the road to New Mexico in their last game. 
So not only are the Broncos itching to erase that stench, but have payback for a 10-point road loss to the Rebels. UNLV had Zimmerman and Carter in that matchup. The two combined for 28 points and 19 rebounds in that game. 
Boise State is up-tempo. The Rebels are going to be hard-pressed to keep up with the Broncos being short-handed and at a tough road venue. 

The Warriors aren't just great at home. They also are an NBA-best 25-5 on the road, including 18-11-1 (62 percent) ATS on the road. The Warriors also are 12-5 following a non-spread cover. 
Atlanta already has lost six more games than it did all of last season. The Hawks aren't in good form either losing and failing to cover in four of their last five. Both teams are playing for the third time in four days, but the Warriors have the stronger bench. 
Hawks point guard Jeff Teague is dealing with a wrist injury. The Warriors have a couple of their big men out, but the Hawks are not a good rebounding team. Atlanta also is missing backup big man Tiago Splitter, out for the year after hip surgery. 

The Pistons have covered 64 percent of their home games this season and have revenge for an embarrassing 115-99 road loss to New Orleans from last month. 
While Detroit is a top home team, New Orleans is a terrible road team. The Pelicans are 6-21 away from home, 11-16 ATS. The Pistons have covered nine of the last 11 times against opponents with a losing road mark. New Orleans also is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games versus Eastern Conference opponents.
The Pistons upgraded themselves at the trade deadline. Their main pickup, Tobias Harris, scored 21 points off the bench this past Friday against the Wizards in his Detroit debut. 
New Orleans is the longest of shots to get a playoff berth. Detroit, on the other hand, is very much in playoff contention. The Pistons can't afford to be flat here at home with a road game against the Cavaliers on Monday. 
I see the Pistons going all out to halt their four-game losing streak. Anthony Davis is an outstanding big man, but Detroit's Andre Drummond is having as good as any season a big man is having. He is leading the league in rebounding and has a higher field goal percentage than Davis. 

This is a battle for first place in the Big West Conference and one of Irvine's biggest home games ever. A rare sellout crowd is expected. 
The Anteaters have revenge for a road loss to Hawaii. Before that loss, Cal Irivne had covered four in a row versus the Rainbow Warriors. The Anteaters are 10-1 at home this season and have covered 10 of their last 14 Big West games.
Cal Irvine ranks 42nd in the country in defense holding foes to less than 66 points a game. The Anteaters have a big rebound/shot blocking edge at center with 7-foot-6 Mamedou Ndiaye. 
Hawaii also could be without guard Aaron Valdes, its second-leading scorer. He's been sick with the flu so even if he plays he may still be under the weather.

Golden State is the best team in basketball. The Warriors haven't dropped two in a row all season - and I don't see it happening here. The Warriors should be extremely focused and fired-up following a shocking 137-105 road loss to Portland Friday night. The Trail Blazers are tough at home and brought their "A" game. The Warriors were rusty and not as focused as they should have been coming off All-Star break. 
The Clippers are off a hugely-satisfying 19-point home win versus San Antonio two nights ago. The Clippers are more bullies than elite. I question their mental makeup and heart. The Clippers are 5-12-1 ATS against foes who have a winning percentage above .600. They are 6-13 ATS at home versus opponents who sport a winning road mark. I don't see the Clippers being able to beat the Spurs and Warriors in a row even at home. 
Golden State has covered 64 percent of its road games this season and is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 Pacific Division games. The Warriors still will be fresh, too. This is just the Warriors' second game in 10 days and none of their players logged more than 30 minutes last night. 
There are plenty of All-Stars in this matchup, but none the caliber of Stephen Curry, who is having one of the greatest seasons in NBA history. No one can guard Curry certainly none of the Clippers' weak backcourt defenders. Golden State has defeated the Clippers four consecutive times, including winning both meetings this season. 

The Wizards started slow last season, but ended up finishing 10 games above .500, earned the No. 5 spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs and swept the Raptors in the first round. 
Now, though, at the All-Star break the Wizards find themselves in 10th place, three games away from the playoffs. Basically the Wizards have nearly the same roster. I expect them to make a move now that Bradley Beal is healthy and John Wall is having a superstar-type season. Wall suffered a bruised knee in the Wizards' final game before the break, but showed he was OK scoring 22 points on 10-of-14 shooting in the All-Star Game. 
Utah is 26-26. The line is priced too low in my opinion because the Jazz entered break winning seven of their last eight games. But those victories came on the road against the Mavericks in overtime, at the Suns and the rest were at home versus the struggling Bulls, Bucks, Nuggets, Timberwolves and Hornets. That's not exactly Murder's Row. The Jazz have failed to cover in nine of their last 13 away games. 
This matchup could be a season-defining moment for the Wizards. They can't waste any time getting things turned around especially taking a home loss to this mediocre opponent with their trumped-up recent record. 
This game was supposed to be played last month, but a massive snowstorm caused a postponement. Because of that, Washington has to play Detroit at Verizon Center on Friday and then at Miami on Saturday. That's three games in three days. 

Tulane is coming off a 94-87 overtime home win against Memphis as seven-point 'dogs. Does this suddenly make the Green Wave a good team? No. Tulane is six games under .500 on the season and just 3-10 in the Atlantic Athletic Conference despite that victory. The Green Wave are 1-6-1 ATS the past eight times they have gone against an opponent with a winning record. 
Houston is much the superior team. The Cougars proved that when they routed the Green Wave, 63-45, as 10 1/2-point home favorites on Jan. 5. Tulane's previous two home games before upsetting Memphis were against Central Florida and South Florida. The Green Wave lost both of those games straight-up as a home favorite. They lost by eight to Central Florida and by 13 to South Florida. 
Houston averages 78.6 points per game. The Cougars hold foes to less than 70 points a game while compiling an 18-7 record. They are 5-1 in their last six games. 
Tulane holds foes to 70 points a game, but doesn't have the offense to keep up with Houston ranking 304th in scoring at 66.7 points a game and 327th in shooting percentage at 40.3 percent. Houston is the better team and also peaking while Tulane is a letdown mode after its biggest win of the season.  

Ball State is favored on the road for the first time since its opening away matchup back on Nov. 13 against Bradley, who beat the Cardinals, 54-53. 
Since then the Cardinals have been road 'dogs eight straight times. The last being this past Saturday when they upset Central Michigan - the team picked to capture the Mid-American West Division - 75-63 as eight-point 'dogs. 
Ball State is 0-5 ATS the past five times following a victory. The Cardinals have a bigger game on deck hosting Northern Illinois on Friday. So this is a potential trap spot for the Cardinals, who have lacked consistency all season. Since the beginning of MAC play, the Cardinals haven't won more than two consecutive games. 
Ball State is 9-19 ATS in its last 28 MAC matchups and 1-4 ATS the past five times when playing at Miami of Ohio. The Red Hawks should have defeated Ball State in the first meeting as 6 1/2-road 'dogs on Jan. 16. Ball State came back from 14 points down to win, 48-46. 

The Red Hawks not only have revenge motivation but focus shouldn't be a problem either after they were embarrassed, 93-49, on the road against Toledo this past Saturday. Prior to that the Red Hawks had won and covered three of four, including the past two two. 

At stake here is sole possession of second place in the Horizon League, which means a lot because the top two seeds in this conference tournament draw double byes. 
If you go by the Pomeroy ratings, you'll find Oakland ranked 101st and Wright State rated 138th. Oakland is the superior team and Wright State's home-court isn't enough to offset that edge even acknowledging that the Raiders have won 10 in a row at Nutter Center. 
Wright State last played at home nine days ago. The Raiders are off a huge road win against Horizon League leader Valparaiso this past Saturday, The Raiders, 13-point underdogs in that game, won on a last-second putback basket by Biggie Minnis. 
It may take a while for the Raiders to come down after that victory. They are 4-10 ATS following a cover and have failed to cover in five of their last six games played on Monday. 
Oakland is the highest scoring team in the league averaging 87.1 points a game, which ranks second nationally. The Golden Grizzlies are No. 1 in the conference in free throw percentage and 3-point percentage. Oakland guard Kay Felder leads the league in scoring at 24.7 per game. He had 33 points when the Grizzlies buried the Raiders, 89-63, on Jan. 22. Wright State failed to slow the tempo down in that matchup. 
The Golden Grizzlies are the only team in the Horizon League without a conference road loss. They've won their past six away games and are 21-4-1 ATS following a victory. They have too much offense for Wright State, averaging nearly 20 points more per game than the Raiders. 

Normally I don't get involved with All-Star games, but this game is an exception.

The West roster isn't just better than the East roster - it's vastly superior. LeBron James is the only player on the East I would rate as among the top 10 players in the game. The West has Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Kawhi Leonard, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, James Harden and Chris Paul. 

The East can't come close to matching that talent and depth. The West also has a huge coaching edge with Gregg Popovich, one of the greatest coaches of all time, against novice Tyronn Lue, who shouldn't even be coaching in this game. 

The West has multiple teammates playing - Durant, Westbrook from the Thunder, Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge from the Spurs and Curry, Green and Klay Thompson from the Warriors. These guys are all used to playing with each other. 

These huge edges are more than enough to overcome the randomness factor that can pop up in exhibition games. 

Illinois State is coming off three wins and covers, the last two as double-digit 'dog winners against MIssouri Valley Conference leader Wichita State at home -  coming from 18 points down to do it - and winning at Evansville this past Thursday. The victory against Evansville moved Illinois State into second place in the league. Now the Redbirds get a well deserved home rest stop against Bradley, which is second-to-last in the conference.
The Redbirds are laying a huge number- an opening 18 to 18 1/2 points - in this rivalry matchup. The Redbirds haven't been favored by more than 8 1/2 points all season. Their largest victory margin versus a board foe is 13 points. 
The two teams met on Jan. 20 and Illinois State won, 55-52, as an 11-point favorite. Bradley shot 31.2 percent from the floor. The Braves shoot 36.7 percent on the season. 
The Missouri Valley is a conference known for well-coached, disciplined teams that play strong defense. Illinois State certainly fits that mold giving up less than 67 points per game. But the Redbirds also only score 67 points a game. Bradley doesn't score much, but the Braves surrender less than 70 points a game. The Braves are giving up an average of just 56 points during their last two games. 
Bradley is going to play at a slow, deliberate pace. The total is low. So taking this many points in a rivalry matchup is huge especially against a foe in a letdown spot. 

Cal-Northridge can't match Cal-Irvine's defense, but the Matadors average more points, shoot better from the floor and have a far better free throw percentage than Irvine.
The Anteaters are 8-1 at home, but the Matadors have covered the last five times they've been on the road versus opponents with a home winning percentage above .600. Northridge has covered four of its five Big West road contests.
The Matadors last played on Wednesday defeating Cal-State Fullerton, 75-67, at home. Irvine had to play on Thursday in Honolulu losing a Big West showdown battle with host Hawaii, 74-52. The Anteaters have a quick rematch with Hawaii hosting them next Saturday.
Meanwhile, the Anteaters have to get their sea legs back under them, along with their mental focus, returning back to California for this matchup. It's not a great spot for the Anteaters and Northridge has enough going to keep it close. 

New Orleans doesn't have the defense to control the Thunder. The Pelicans rank 24th both in points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. Oklahoma City ranks No. 2 in the NBA in scoring at 109.9 points a game and has been averaging 112.4 points during its last 15 games. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are each playing at high levels and the Thunder have the big bodies in Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams to slow down Anthony Davis. Durant is averaging 36.3 points during his last three games.
The spot is ripe, too, for Oklahoma City. New Orleans has won two in a row. Those victories were against Minnesota and Utah. Now the Pelicans jump way up in class following a narrow 100-96 home win against the Jazz last night. New Orleans is 5-11 ATS following a cover. This is the Pelicans' third game in four nights. Their depth is down with Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans out. 
The Thunder are 13-2 in their last 15 games with their lone loss during their last seven games coming on the road to Golden State. 

I like Brad Stevens a lot. But there exits a huge talent gap between Stevens' Celtics and the Clippers. LA has enough star power to go 18-4 despite not having Blake Griffin the last 22 games. The Clippers don't need Griffin to beat Boston on the road especially given the circumstances of the matchup. 
The Clippers have been on the East Coast the past three days after getting away with a lackluster performance in a 98-92 overtime win against the 76ers this past Monday. The Celtics, on the other hand, are crossing a time zone flying into Boston in the wee hours of the morning following a bizarre 112-111 road loss to Milwaukee on Tuesday night. The Celtics clawed their way back from 18 points down in the final quarter to tie the game only to lose on a free throw by Khris Middleton with less than a second left after a deadball foul had been called.  
The Clippers have won 12 of their past 14 away contests. They feast on Eastern Conference foes going 11-3 in their last 14 games against them. They've covered 72 percent of their past 27 games versus Eastern Conference opponents.  LA received its wakeup call against the 76ers during its last game. The Clippers have covered each of the last eight times following a non-cover and also are 9-2 ATS when playing on one day's rest. 
Because of Doc Rivers and Paul Pierce, the Clippers get extra motivated when they play the Celtics especially in Boston. The Clippers are 5-1 ATS during their past six trips to Boston winning each of the four meetings since Rivers left the Celtics to become LA's coach. 
The Celtics have a strong bench. They are better than most teams when playing without rest. But Jamal Crawford - a streak shooter - has been the hottest reserve player in the NBA averaging 22 points during his last five games. 
The Clippers are at their best in these type of matchups, beating up a weaker Eastern Conference foe. The Clippers have the talent edge, are in a good spot already being in Boston before the Celtics arrive and have the motivation knowing they can't get away with being flat against this caliber of opponent especially when their first two games following All-Star break are against the two best teams in basketball - San Antonio and Golden State. 

The Knicks are broke and interim coach Kurt Rambis isn't going to fix them. Rambis was horrible when he coached the Timberwolves from 2009 to 2011 and he takes over a bad situation that isn't likely to get resolved until next season, certainly not during the brief period before All-Star break. 
The short Derek Fisher era was a disaster for the Knicks. New York was 40-96 during his reign. That's the worst percentage of any Knicks coach lasting longer than a season. Fisher was the Rich Kottie of New York basketball coaches. 
The Knicks are 1-9 in their last 10 games and have dropped five in a row failing to cover any of their last five. Yes, the Wizards are struggling, too. But they are a level above the Knicks, match up well to New York and catch the Knicks in a horrible transition spot. Not only is morale low with the Knicks, but there is dissension among the coaching ranks with the hiring of Rambis. 
New York is well deserving of its losing streak averaging fewer than 96 points during its last 10 games while surrendering more than 106 points per game during its last 15 contests. This the Knicks' final game before having 10 days off for All-Star break. I could very well see them mailing this one in. 
But what about the Wizards? The record shows they are 3-8 in their last 11 games. It also reveals Washington, though, to have played very tough opponents during this span including the Warriors, Thunder, Raptors, Celtics twice, Rockets, Heat and Trail Blazers. 
The Wizards have had three days to stew about blowing a 19-point road lead to the Hornets this past Saturday in a 108-104 loss. The good news is John Wall continues to play at a high level, Bradley Beal is out of his minutes limitation and Nene could return for this game. Unlike the Knicks, the Wizards hold realistic playoff hopes and should have a great deal of urgency for this game. 
Washington hasn't dropped three consecutive road games all season. The Wizards have covered seven of their last nine road matchups. They have played their best against Eastern Conference clubs going 14-6 ATS. They also have beaten the Knicks seven of the past eight times while winning four in a row at Madison Square Garden.

Five times Denver has been an underdog this season. Five times the Broncos have covered winning four of those games straight-up.
The Panthers are this big of a favorite, in part, because of how strong they looked in beating the Cardinals by 34 points in the second of the two championship games. 
Denver holding New England to just 18 points the AFC title game is just as impressive, though. The Broncos held the Steelers and Patriots to an average of 17 points in playoff competition while dealing Tom Brady his lowest quarterback rating of the season. It's not a fluke. The Broncos ranked No. 1 in total defense, pass defense and sacks. 
Carolina's defense isn't as dominant relying on an NFL-best 39 takeaways and plus 20 turnover ratio. The Panthers are down two starters in their secondary and likely to be missing star linebacker Thomas Davis, who suffered a broken arm against the Cardinals. Davis was playing as well as any Carolina defender. Denver lost its starting safeties against New England, but both vowed to play in the Super Bowl. 
Carolina only beat one opponent, Seattle, with a winning record when it was playing outside of Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers lost to Atlanta the last time they were away from home. The Panthers have been to one Super Bowl - back in 2003. They are an inexperienced in this setting and a shaky favorite having nearly blown late leads against the Colts, Packers, Giants and Seahawks in the playoffs when they won 31-24 after being up 31-0. 
The Broncos are 'dogs in this range because of the quarterback matchup. Cam Newton deserves to be the MVP. Peyton Manning is Alex Smith now. But Manning also looked the healthiest he's looked in months. Manning may be the wisest quarterback to ever play. Certainly he's in that discussion. He knows his defense is elite - capable of winning the Super Bowl.
There is no more opportunistic team than the Panthers. The key for the Broncos is not turning the ball over. Manning's regular season statistics show horrific numbers - a 9-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a last-place passer rating. However, the savvy Manning hasn't turned the ball over during the playoffs. He had a 103.8 quarterback rating in the first half against the Patriots. 
Manning has better wide receivers than Newton and is smart enough to stay away from shutdown cornerback Josh Norman. Instead, Manning will ride C.J. Anderson, who has been at least Jonathan Stewart's equal averaging 5.6 yards a carry during his last four games, and let his defense win the game. 
The Broncos just played in the Super Bowl two seasons ago. They are looking for atonement for a 43-8 loss to the Seahawks. The Panthers' defense isn't nearly as dominant as Seattle's was two years ago especially minus starting defensive backs Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere. They also could be down safety Roman Harper and pass rusher Jared Allen. 
Newton and the Panthers are thrilled to be on center stage. How will they handle it? Accuracy isn't Newton's strength. If he comes out tight the Broncos' elite defense surely will take advantage. Wade Phillips is one of the sharpest defensive coordinators of all time. He has two weeks to prepare and major cards to defend against Newton, including a pair of dominant edge pass rushers in Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. 
The bottom line is taking more than a field goal with an elite defense, more experienced big-game team and having one of the sharpest quarterbacks of all-time with a better supporting cast around him. 

Miami is playing well and is healthier than it has been. However, the Clippers are a level higher and have been in Florida since Friday when they defeated the Magic, 107-93. So the Clippers shouldn't be bothered by the early start and difference in time.
The Clippers have won 17 of their last 21 games and have covered in nine of their last 11 road games.
The Clippers beat the Heat at home, 104-90, on Jan. 13 despite missing Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, who was out with an illness. Jordan is back and playing well with 15 or more rebounds in his last six games. Miami's Hassan Whiteside isn't going to be dominant squaring off against Jordan.
The Clippers also have been getting excellent bench production from streaky Jamal Crawford, who has scored 20 or more points in four of his last five games, including the past three. 

This is more than just a case of taking points in a matchup of two bad Sun Belt Conference teams. Both schools ranked in the top 25 in defense, but lack height and struggle to score while playing at a slow pace. 
So points should be at a premium like they were when they met for the first time this season on Jan. 2. Georgia State won that matchup, 58-46. It was the fourth straight time in the series that the road team covered as the line was pick'em. This gives Texas State revenge motivation. 
Now, a month later, Georgia State is nearly a double-digit favorite. Home-court certainly isn't worth that many points. Not only are the Panthers way down from last season, but they are in bad form. Georgia State is 1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS in its last five games with its lone victory during this span coming in overtime by three as an 11-point home favorite against Georgia Southern. That was the last time the Panthers were home, which was back on Jan. 19.
Texas State averages only 67.1 points a game. But that's still higher than Georgia State, which averages just 65.7 points a game. 

The Bulls are due to play better and Utah hasn't won three games in a row all season. 
Chicago should be fired-up after giving up an embarrassing 69 points in the second half during its 120-93 road loss to the Clippers on Sunday. That was a day game giving the Bulls a few extra hours in this second of consecutive games. The Bulls should be accustomed to the time difference as this is their third consecutive West Coast game. Chicago opened its road trip with a 114-91 victory against the Lakers this past Thursday. 
The Jazz are healthier than they have been, but I like the Bulls' talent better especially in the backcourt with Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose. The Jazz have played a very weak recent schedule - having faced the Timberwolves this past Friday in their last game, Hornets twice, Pistons, Nets, Knicks, Lakers and Kings. Detroit is the only one of those teams above .500.
Utah is 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing on two days rest. The Bulls have beaten Utah in seven of the past nine meetings.

I see a kill spot here for the Warriors after they narrowly escaped the 76ers last night, winning 108-105. The Warriors almost blew a 24-point lead. Look for a more focused effort after that scare especially now that they've settled into East Coast time playing their second of three road games in a row. 
Stephen Curry and Co. would like to prove themselves in the media center of the country with a big performance. The Warriors could be at full strength, too, with center Festus Ezeli possibly returning after missing two games with an injured knee and Andre Iguodala back after being rested for the first time this season in last night's game. 
Golden State is 10-1 when playing without rest. The Warriors also are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 road games and 11-2 ATS following a non-cover. 
The Warriors lead the league in scoring and have been at their offensive-best averaging a staggering 122.3 points in their last seven games. The Knicks are much improved this season, but they have only managed to defeat the hapless Suns during their last five games.  

Boise State is 10-1 at home. New Mexico is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road contests, 2-8 ATS when playing against a home opponent with a winning record. 
The Broncos may just have the best player in the Mountain West Conference in James Webb III. He scored 23 points when the Broncos beat New Mexico, 69-59, on the road last season. The Lobos held Webb in check in last season's rematch at Boise State. However, the Broncos still won, 76-65, because Nick Duncan connected on eight 3-pointers.
Don't expect anything to change now that we've turned the calendar year. Boise State remains a bad matchup for New Mexico because of the style of the two teams. Boise State is an up-tempo team that likes to fire up 3-pointers. The Broncos are especially dangerous at home. Discounting their game against San Diego State, which ranks first in the country in defensive field goal percentage, the Broncos are averaging 86.3 points during their last home contests. 
New Mexico can run, too, but often prefers to set up their big men with inside touches. The Lobos lack Boise State's scoring depth and explosiveness. 
Just two weeks ago, New Mexico lost to Wyoming at home. By contrast, Boise State just beat Wyoming by 10 points on the road a week ago. 

Mercer is frustrated after two straight road overtime losses. The Bears can take advantage of their angry mood being in a kill spot at home against overmatched VMI, which is 6-12 SU and 2-9 ATS. The Keydets have failed to cover during their last seven road games and nine of their past 10 away matchups. VMI's last four road losses have been by an average of 25.5 points.  
Mercer leads the Southern Conference in rebounding, has a very strong defense and can take advantage of VMI's weak defense and short lineup. The Bears are yielding an average of only 56 points per game at home holding opponents to 37 percent shooting from the floor. The Bears' average home victory this season has been by more than 17 points. 

Spot, situation and double revenge motivation factor heavily in this matchup for the Timberwolves. 
Minnesota is home where it has beaten the Suns and Grizzlies in its last two games, rested after being idle on Tuesday and psyched to beat the Thunder after losing to them twice already this month and nine times in a row. 
Oklahoma City is playing its fourth away game in six days. The Thunder had to go overtime to get past the Knicks, 128-122, at Madison Square Garden last night. All but one of the Thunder's starters played at least 42 minutes. Center Steven Adams returned from a two-game absence and logged more than 35 minutes. He might not be able to play nearly that many minutes in this short turnaround. The Thunder are without guard Andre Roberson. He was replaced by Dion Waiters, who played a season-high 42:31 minutes. 
The Thunder's defense is down without Robertson and it will be weakened even more if Adams is limited. The Timberwolves like to compare themselves to the Thunder with their promising second-year players Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine and rookie Karl-Anthony Towns. The hope for the Timberwolves is these players can become stars like Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka. Now here Wiggins, LaVine and Towns have a chance to compete against their benchmark right at home. All three are playing well with Towns averaging 21.8 points and 12.5 rebounds in his last four games, Wiggins is scoring at a 23.5 per game clip in his last four contests and LaVine is averaging 17 points during his last four games. 
Focus, along with fatigue, could be a problem for the Thunder. They return home after being gone for nearly a week following the game and host the Rockets, a far tougher challenge, on Friday. 

Both defenses are very good. The difference - and it's huge - is quarterback. Tom Brady is 38, but remains in the argument for best quarterback in the league. No quarterback threw for more touchdowns. 
Peyton Manning is just a year older than Brady, but he's washed-up done in by multiple neck surgeries and a foot injury that had kept him out of action since Nov. 15 until a lackluster start this past Sunday against the Steelers where he needed a Pittsburgh fumble to put up his lone touchdown. 
Manning is nothing but a glorified game-manager lacking a sterling ground game to fall back on, or set him up to keep pace with Brady. Manning has never been very good in the postseason even in his prime. He is 5-11 in his career versus Brady and 1-5 in the playoffs when the temperature has been under 40 degrees. Denver is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven postseason contests.
The Broncos were just 5-4 straight-up and ATS in Manning's nine starts. Manning finished 35th in passer ratings with a horrendous 9-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 
The Patriots have a top-10 defense, including a top-10 run defense. Their key linebackers did get nicked up against the Chiefs this past Saturday, but Bill Belichick always has versatile defenders and is deep at the position if some of his starters can't go. 
Neither Manning, nor Brock Osweiler, are capable of putting up a lot of points. The Broncos rely on their defense. Ben Roethlisberger threw for nearly 340 yards against them with a sore shoulder and no Antonio Brown. Brady is capable of more with a rejuvenated Rob Gronkowski and healthy Julian Edelman. New England averaged 33 points per game and a 50 percent third down conversion rate with Edelman and only 23 points and a 30 percent third down conversion rate in the seven games Edelman missed with a foot injury.
Edelman is the key to the Patriots' up-tempo, quick-rhythm strike offense that doesn't need a sufficient ground game. The Patriots put up 27 points on the Chiefs defense, which was playing even better than Denver's. New England's offense should be even more well tuned this week with Edelman getting the rust off. The Patriots catch a break with Denver cornerback Chris Harris dealing with a shoulder injury. 
Given the liberal rules that favor offense in this era, Brady has a clear advantage on Denver's defense. Manning is in his dotage, nothing more than a glorified game manager. He won't be able to keep pace. 

San Diego State has won and covered the past five in this series. Look for that string to continue. The Aztecs have won by an average of 17.5 points the past two times hosting Utah State - and that was when the Aggies had Stew Morrill coaching them. 
Not only are the Aztecs - who are undefeated in the Mountain West - taller, but they have the better athletes, too. They are leading the Mountain West Conference in rebounding and also are No. 1 defensively. 
San Diego State beat Utah State, 70-67, in Logan earlier this season and that was with the Aggies getting some homecooking. Utah State made 24 of 29 free throws in that game compared to the Aztecs making 10 of 20.

Utah State was hurt by big man David Collette transferring to Utah. The Aggies' rebounding hasn't been the same. There also is a fatigue factor working against the Aggies this being their eighth game in 22 days. 

Picked to finish fourth in the West Coast Conference, Saint Mary's has been one of the surprise teams going 15-2 despite losing its five senior starters and 80 percent of its scoring and rebounding from last season's 21-10 team. 
The Gaels are No. 2 in the nation in scoring margin winning by an average of 20.5 points a game while ranking third in fewest points allowed per game at 58. Impressive, yes. But a soft home schedule has contributed to Saint Mary's dominance. I believe it's a mistake to make the Gaels a favorite against Gonzaga even though they are 13-0 at home. 
We've been down this road before with these two teams. Gonzaga was an underdog in 2013 and 2014 to Saint Mary's. The Zags won those games by 28 and 17 points, respectively. Simply put, Saint Mary's doesn't beat Gonzaga. The Zags have been the class of this conference since the late 1990s and still are the class of this conference. They have defeated the Gaels eight consecutive times, covering the past seven times. 
Gonzaga is very strong again at 14-4 with its four losses coming by a combined 12 points. The Zags lead the WCC in scoring and rank No. 2 in the league in scoring defense. They have two of the top six scorers in the conference with Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis, who also leads the WCC in rebounding. 
The Zags have won the past three meetings at McKeon Pavilion. Their 13-game road win streak is the longest in the NCAA. Saint Mary's is going to feel the pressure of being the favorite. The Gaels have been involved in two games decided by single-digits and lost both - blowing a late lead to California in a 63-59 road loss and falling to Pepperdine, 67-64, two games ago as an 8 1/2-point road favorite. 
The Gaels blew a 17-point lead at home to Gonzaga when the teams last played on Feb. 21 of 215. The Zags won that game, 70-60. Bottom line: Saint Mary's isn't ready to beat Gonzaga. Getting points is a bonus. 

Washington has revenge for an embarrassing 97-75 home loss suffered to the Heat early this month. Look for the Wizards to get their revenge in a big way as this is a horrendous spot for the banged-up Heat.
Miami is enduring its worst stretch going 1-5, including losing 91-79 to the Bucks at home last night. The Heat had just returned from a six-game road trip that had concluded Sunday night in a blowout loss to the Thunder. Now the Heat go right back on the road.
The Heat have been outscored by 37 points in their last two games. While the Wizards are healthy with Bradley Beal back, the Heat are down several big men and have a cluster injury problem at point guard with starter Goran Dragic and backup Beno Udrih out. This leaves the Heat inexperienced in the backcourt. Dwayne Wade is trying to take over some of the ball handling, but he's bothered by a sore shoulder. John Wall against Tyler Johnson is one of the biggest mismatches of the season. 
The Wizards have been playing better winning four of their last six. However, they are off a double-digit home loss to Portland this past Monday. So the Wizards should be rested and ready. 

Golden State, San Antonio and Cleveland are without question the elite of the NBA right now. The timing of this matchup, though, is well suited for the Cavaliers. 
The Warriors are 37-4, but playing their worst ball dropping two of their last three. The latest defeat being an eye-popping 113-95 road loss to the Pistons this past Saturday. The Pistons are an outstanding home team and were sky-high for the matchup. But Golden State has no excuses being healthy. The Warriors shot a season-low from the floor and had their fewest assists, just 18, of the season. 
While I certainly wouldn't expect the Warriors to be that bad again - perhaps not all season - this is another tough spot for them. The revenge-minded Cavaliers are 15-1 at home, riding a six-game winning streak at Quicken Loans Arena. Cleveland is well rested having completed a 5-1 road trip with an impressive 91-77 victory against Houston on Friday. That followed a tough 99-95 loss to the Spurs that halted the Cavaliers' eight game win streak.
The prideful Cavaliers don't want to lose to the Spurs and Warriors in the same week. They also have payback for an 89-83 Christmas Day loss to the Warriors and for losing to Golden State in the Championship Series while missing Kevin Love and losing Kyrie Irving for the series when he suffered a broken left kneecap in Game 1. Irving was just returning from his injury when the Cavaliers lost to Golden State on Christmas. Now he's healthy as are the rest of the Cavaliers. Irving led the Cavaliers against the Rockets with 23 points. 
LeBron James usually can be counted on in revenge spots. James is on a hot run, too, averaging 25.3 points, 8.8 rebounds and 6.7 assists while hitting 54.8 percent of his shots from the field during the last six games. 

This is a huge letdown spot for the Nuggets, coming off a home victory against Golden State two nights ago. It was only the Warriors' third loss of the season. The Nuggets are 1-4-1 ATS following a cover and 2-7-2 ATS when playing on one day rest.
Denver is better this season with Michael Malone as its coach and Danilo Gallinari healthy. But the Nuggets are far from a good team at 15-24. Denver is 3-1 in its last four games, but they've been fortunate to draw foes that haven't played up to their capability against them. The Nuggets have shot just 39.2 percent from the floor during this span and failed to break 95 points in three of the matchups. 
Miami ranks No. 2 defensively holding foes to 95.5 points a game. The Heat are highly motivated having lost three in a row. This is the fifth of six straight road contests for the Heat, who conclude their road trip with a probable loss on Sunday against Oklahoma City. The Heat's losses during their losing streak have come to the Jazz, when they were playing without rest, to the Warriors, who have yet to lose at home, and to the Clippers, who have won 10 in a row. 
Now the Heat drop way down in class. Miami is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games following a non-cover. The Heat also are 16-5 ATS during their past 21 road games against foes with a losing home mark. 
The Heat are off a bad game. Proud veterans Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh aren't going to let that happen again especially versus a much weaker opponent. The Heat will be without starting point guard Goran Dragic, but they have depth in the backcourt and Denver is weak at point guard with over-the-hill Jameer Nelson and erratic rookie Emmanuel Mudiay, who is one of the worst shooters and most turnover-prone players in the league. 

 

No pearls of wisdom for this choice. The oddsmaker opened San Antonio minus 5 1/2 and the marketplace has driven the number up to seven. That's a buy number for me. It's just too much value to overlook Cleveland.

Yes, San Antonio is great. But the Cavaliers are not exactly chopped liver and they are playing their finest basketball, too. Cleveland has won eight in a row and Kyrie Irving is getting better each game as he rounds into shape. 

A disappointing 0-3 start in Mountain West Conference action has caused a lot of upheaval at UNLV. The school fired head coach David Rice two days ago. This will be he Rebels' first game under interim coach Todd Simon, who is not expected to get the permanent job. 
I like New Mexico in this unique spot mainly for two reasons - the Lobos are playing extremely well and the Rebels' uneasy mental state. The Lobos always have scoring capability, averaging two points more per game than UNLV at 77.4, but now their defense has come around in major fashion.
The Lobos have a poor power rating because of a terrible non-conference record. New Mexico, however, now is playing its best ball of the season going 3-0 in its first three Mountain West Conference matchups. The Lobos are tied for the conference lead in part because they not only lead the league in steals and 3-point defense by a wide margin, but also have been called for the fewest fouls. 
UNLV doesn't take a backseat to any team in the conference in terms of talent, but the Rebels are a mental mess. UNLV is 1-5 in its last six games and morale - both with the players and coaches - is up in the air with the choice of Simon as interim head coach. The Rebels were favored between 4 1/2 and 8 points in each of their first three Mountain West games. They lost all three straight-up. 
The Rebels have yet to find themselves on offense hindered by the lack of a true point guard. They have committed 24 more turnovers than assists in league play. The Lobos are 7-3 ATS the past 10 times they've played a foe with a winning record and have covered in four of their past five visits to UNLV. 

Now that plus 7's are on the board, I'm pouncing on Clemson, unbeaten this season and winners of 17 in a row. 
Alabama is not the dominant monster team that is perceived by many. That perception was fueled by the Crimson Tide destroying Michigan State last week. Credit to Alabama for playing great in that matchup. But Clemson is nothing like the Spartans. Clemson's strengths directly play against Alabama, unlike Michigan State. 
Alabama played its Game of the Year against Michigan State, fueled by Big Ten revenge after a 42-35 bowl loss to Ohio State last season and having three weeks to prepare for the Spartans. Michigan State doesn't have the offensive talent, nor plays the style of offense, Clemson does. The Spartans, in hindsight, were sitting ducks for Alabama. 
Michigan State's Connor Cook is a dropback quarterback operating a pro-style offense. The Crimson Tide is much more geared to stop this type of offense rather than Clemson's option. The Tigers' Deshaun Watson may be the best dual threat quarterback in the country. Unlike Michigan State, Clemson has playmakers at the flanks and it spreads the field. The Crimson Tide are going to encounter problems handling Watson and this type of offense, especially with just one week to prepare. This is especially pertinent in light of Crimson Tide defensive coordinator Kirby Smart shuttling responsibilities after being named Georgia's head coach last month. 
Clemson pushes pace with its up-tempo attack. This keeps Alabama from making its normal substitution patterns thereby reducing its team depth. Look at who Alabama has lost to during the last three years - at home to Mississippi this season- then last season at Mississippi and to Ohio State in the bowl semifinals - also 45-31 to Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl in 2013. 
Clemson rolled past the Sooners, 37-17, this past week. Go back to 2012 and you'll find the Crimson Tide losing at home to Texas A&M and Johnny Manziel. The common denominator is these are spread offenses with mobile quarterbacks none of whom is better than Watson, who is light years ahead of Alabama quarterback Jake Coker. 

Clemson has covered in its last four bowl games. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six neutral site games, while Alabama is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games.  

Kansas City is the hottest team in the NFL winning 10 in a row. The Chiefs beat the Texans by a touchdown at Houston in Week 1 and nothing has changed. The Chiefs still are the superior team.
The Chiefs have played the stronger competition being in a much tougher division. They have a balanced offense with a superior quarterback in Alex Smith, who rates an edge on Brian Hoyer. The Chiefs' defense is holding foes to only 14.5 points during their last 12 games and should have Justin Houston back this week. Houston led the NFL in sacks last season.
The Texans are going to be without their best offensive lineman, left tackle Duane Brown. He's out for the season after suffering a torn tendon in his right quad this past Sunday.
The Chiefs have the best turnover ratio in the AFC at plus 14. Their secondary has a 12-to-20 touchdown-to-interception ratio in their last 11 games. 

The Texans are just thrilled to have reached the playoffs courtesy only of being in the worst division. 

Prop Bet (Taken from Westgate)
Over 5 1/2 Sacks
Look for these two teams to exceed 5 1/2 sacks. Kansas City ranked No. 4 in sacks with 47 while the Texans were No. 5 with 45. J.J. Watt led the NFL in sacks this season with 17 1/2. A year ago, Justin Houston led the NFL in sacks. Houston is expected back for the Chiefs this week after missing the last five games with a knee injury. He had 22 sacks last season. Alex Smith was sacked 45 times this season. Only two quarterbacks were sacked more times. Smith is highly mobile, but also highly conservative. He would much rather go down that take a shot on completing a pass. He is the total opposite of a gunslinger. Brian Hoyer isn't as mobile as Smith and won't have his best pass blocker as left tackle Duane Brown was injured last week and is out for the season. 

Valparaiso and Oakland were picked to be the top two teams in the Horizon League this season in the preseason poll. Now they get together in this nationally televised matchup on ESPN2. 
Valparaiso plays great defense. Oakland has the sixth-best offense in the country averaging 86.9 points a game. It's clearly a case of contrasting styles. So which way to turn? 
Examining the matchup the clear answer is Oakland. 
First let's look at history. The Grizzlies are home. That's huge. The home team has won the past five times in the series. Oakland also is 5-1 against the Crusader at home with the lone defeat during this time frame occurring back in 2010. The Grizzlies have covered 75 percent of their last 17 home contests going 12-4-1 ATS. 
Sticking with history, the Grizzlies also have covered in their last six games versus Valparaiso. Yet, the Crusaders opened as road chalk. Valparaiso has been a road favorite in its last three lined away matchups. They have failed to cover each time losing straight-up to Belmont and Ball State while not covering versus Indiana State. 
The Crusaders have won 20 in a row at home. They are not nearly so dominant on the road just 3-3 straight-up versus board opponents. 
Oakland is going to be especially motivated following a shocking 100-98 home loss to Youngstown State in its last game this past Monday. The Grizzlies were 17-point favorites in that game. They lost on a tip-in at the buzzer perhaps caught looking ahead to this matchup.
That defeat may have factored in the linesmaker opening Valparaiso a road favorite. Oakland, though, has too much offense at home for the Crusaders led by the best player in the Horizon League, Kahil Fielder. The junior guard ranks third in the nation in scoring at 26.1 points and is No. 1 in assists at 9.2. The Grizzlies have six players that average 9.5 points or more. Valparaiso, by comparison, only has two players who average more than 11 points a game. 
The Grizzlies have covered 11 of their past 16 Horizon League games and are battled tested having had non-conference games versus Colorado State, Georgia, Toledo, Washington, Michigan State and Virginia. None of these games were at home yet the Grizzlies upset Washington and Toledo while taking Michigan State to overtime. Oakland covered all of these games, including playing Colorado State, Georgia and Virginia tough. 
Now the Grizzlies get their biggest home game of the season off a shocking upset loss. I'll take them in this spot. Getting points is a nice bonus. 

I'm fine with Purdue even if Michigan's senior star guard Caris LaVert is going to play. He's the Wolverines' best player leading them in scoring, rebounding and assists. He injured his left leg two games ago and missed Michigan's last game this past Saturday. The Wolverines were able to overcome his absence by blowing out Penn State at home. 
The Wolverines are going to find things much tougher here as not only is this a difficult game from a matchup perspective but also from a situation spot, too. Before getting into that analysis, the current status of LaVert is that he's going to test his leg in warmups and then a decision will be made. Even if LaVert plays, you have to wonder if he'll be close to 100 percent. He couldn't finish last season because of surgery on his left foot. 
Purdue is going to be super fired-up after having its 15-game home win streak ended this past Saturday by 23rd-ranked Iowa, 70-63. That was only the Boilermakers' second loss of the season. After falling to Butler, Purdue came back to beat Vanderbilt, 68-55, as six-point home favorites in its following game. 
The Boilermakers have covered 68 percent of their last 22 home games going 15-7. They are 5-0-1 against the spread during their last six meetings versus Michigan. 
The Wolverines are a perimeter team. They rank fifth nationally in field goal percentage and fifth in 3-pointers made and are seven in 3-point percentage. LaVert is hitting 44.6 percent of his 3-point shots. 
If the Wolverines aren't hitting from the outside they're in trouble because they are a weak offensive rebounding team and have a size disadvantage against Purdue. The Boilermakers rank No. 1 in the country in defensive field goal percentage. Only five teams surrender fewer points per game than the Boilermakers' 59.1 average. Purdue has held its last 13 foes below their season average.
Michigan isn't likely to earn any cheap baskets in this hostile environment. Purdue has 7-foot-2 Isaac Haas at center. His backup is 7-footer A.J. Hammons. They've combined to average 4.1 of Purdue's 5.8 blocked shots per game. It's not just these 7-footers. Purdue forward Caleb Swanigan leads the Big Ten in rebounding and senior guard 6-6 Rapheal Davis is a lockdown defender. The Boilersmakers also have 6-7 Vince Edwards and 6-6 Kendall Stephens giving them players with a tremendous wing span. It's a key reason why Purdue ranks 11th in 3-point defense. 
Purdue also is the better free throw shooting team knocking down 74.2 percent, 33rd best in the country. Michigan ranks 110th making 71.5 percent from the foul line. 
The Wolverines' three defeats have come against teams that had interior size where they couldn't compete on the boards, especially on the offensive glass where they rank 327th in the nation. They've suffered blowout losses to Xavier, Connecticut and SMU. All of those losses were by 14 points or more. 

Wake Forest certainly can hang in against Duke given its depth and being battle tested. Duke's depth is down with Amile Jefferson out. The Blue Devils are down to about a six-man rotation while Wake Forest can go 11 deep. 

This could be Wake Forest's best team in the last six years. They Deacons beat LSU on the road - impressive even more now that the Tigers own victories against Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Wake Forest also owns wins against Rutgers, UCLA, Arkansas and Indiana. 

Wake Forest usually is at its best against good competition covering 16 of the last 22 times versus foes with a winning record. 

Rarely do the defensively-challenge Kings find themselves in a letdown spot. This is one of those rare occurrences. The Kings, who rank last in defense surrendering nearly 108 points a game, upset Oklahoma City on the road, 116-104, last night. That ended a 14-game Kings lost streak against the Thunder on the road. 
Now the Kings have to turn around and come to Dallas and face the Mavericks, who should be playing with tremendous urgency. The up-and-down Mavericks have lost two in a row. Dallas goes on the road for nine of its next 13 games following this matchup, including six of their next seven. 
Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last six home contests and 11-5 ATS following a loss. Sacramento is 8-22-1 ATS following a victory. 
The Mavericks have owned the Kings in Dallas beating them the past 21 times at home! The Mavericks are 21-3 in their last 24 overall games versus Sacramento. The Kings, however defeated the Mavericks, 112-98, at Sacramento on Nov. 30. Rajon Rondo was highly motivated in that matchup against his former team. It was no secret Rondo and Dallas coach Rick Carlisle clashed when Rondo was with the Mavericks last season.
Now it's the Mavericks' turn to get revenge on the Kings and in particular Rondo, who wasn't the most popular person when he was with Dallas. Deron Williams still might be out because of a hamstring injury that he re-injured on Saturday. But I actually like J.J. Barea better as the Mavericks' starting point guard and second-string point guard Devin Harris is expected to return today after being sidelined with a sore back. 

 

This is a circle-the-wagons game for Boston following consecutive home losses to the Lakers and Nets. 
The Celtics are in short revenge here as Brooklyn beat them, 100-97, on Saturday. The Celtics also are motivated because they own the Nets' first-round pick this year. 
The Nets are thin in the backcourt after losing point guard Jarrett Jack for the season with a knee injury during their Saturday win against Boston. The Nets were weak at the point to start with and now have serious problems. 
The Nets need to feed Brook Lopez inside. That's a big part of their offense. That's not going to be so easy without an established point guard. 
The Celtics have been big earners on the road going 20-8 (71 percent) ATS during their past 28 away matchups. 

The Raiders have a history of playing their long-time hated division rival tough and I expect that to be the case again. Oakland has covered seven of the past nine times playing in Kansas City. The teams are 5-5 during their past 10 meetings. Only once in the last eight years have the Chiefs swept the Raiders.

Unlike previous seasons, the Raiders under their first-year coach Jack Del Rio have showed resolve while playing much better on the road. They have a winning away mark and have covered in four of their last five road matchups. Not once have the Raiders lost by more than five points on the road this season.

The Chiefs realize that Denver isn't going to lose to San Diego so they won't be winning the AFC South Division title. Both their game and the Broncos game kick off late so the Chiefs will be distracted doing some scoreboard watching. If the Broncos break out early against the Chargers - and they are double-digit favorites at some books - it wouldn't be surprising if Andy Reid starting resting starters in order to have them fresh for next week's playoffs. 

The Raiders really want to finish 8-8. All of their quotes this week point to that - and those quotes come across to me as sincere. I see the Raiders playing with a lot of energy and emotion. They are fortified with extra rest having played last Thursday. The Chiefs are banged up with their two best edge pass rushers, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, questionable. 

Oakland led Kansas City by six points in the fourth quarter when they met four weeks ago. But Derek Carr had a meltdown with three turnovers and the Chiefs won by a misleading 34-20 score. Carr has proven himself this season making giant steps going from game manager to dangerous playmaker. I like him far more than Alex Smith. 

The Chiefs are 9-0 in their last nine games, 7-2 ATS. They also are plus 19 in turnover ratio during this time. They are more about precision and takeaways than some dominant opponent. The Raiders can definitely hang with them if not pull the outright upset. 

Nothing against California. I have great respect for the talent on the Golden Bears. But Colorado is very good, too. The Buffaloes are 11-2 and are as good as many envisioned two seasons ago. The respect, lost last season, hasn't caught to them yet providing value for this Pac-12 opener.
The Pac-12 is strong this season - and balanced. There is a lot of parity. So I see this as too many points Cal is giving up. 
Colorado is No. 1 in the Pac-12 in 3-point shooting. The Buffaloes also are getting a huge season from big man Josh Scott, who is healthy this season unlike last year. This makes the Buffaloes competitive in any road setting. 
Because of their outside shooting, the Buffaloes are averaging 83.1 points a game. Scott has helped them rank No. 2 in the Pac-12 in rebounding margin. Scott is averaging 18.4 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. Colorado has a strong inside-outside game as each of its starting guards are averaging double figures. 
The Buffaloes have covered nine of their last 11 against Cal. The Golden Bears have covered just 32 percent of their last 34 Pac-12 matchups. 

Not only do I like fading a Big Ten team against an SEC foe, but Northwestern doesn't have nearly enough offense to hang within double-digits of Tennessee.
Northwestern won some close games versus mediocre Big Ten opponents such as defeating Penn State by two, Purdue by seven and Illinois by 10 during its past four games. But the Wildcats were smashed 38-0 by Michigan and 40-10 by Iowa. The Wildcats were fortunate enough to not have to play against Ohio State and Michigan State. 
The Wildcats have strong defensive statistics, but I wasn't impressed with the offenses they faced to built those numbers. 
Tennessee came on strong to win its last five games. The Volunteers nearly beat Oklahoma and Alabama leading both in the fourth quarter falling to the Sooners in overtime. 
Volunteers quarterback Joshua Dobbs improved from his sophomore season completing nearly 60 percent of his throws for more than 2,100 yards and 15 touchdowns. He also rushed for 623 yards and another nine touchdowns. Dobbs threw multiple touchdown passes to seven different receivers. 
Northwestern lacks Tennessee's explosiveness - and that includes special teams. The Volunteers had six return touchdowns, three each on punts and kickoffs. Evan Berry led the nation in kickoff returns with 38.3 yards per return and three kickoff return touchdowns. 

Clemson has won 16 in a row and buried Oklahoma, 40-6, last season in a bowl game despite missing Deshaun Watson. So I don't comprehend this line. At worst, these two teams are even.

Yes, three players are suspended for Clemson. The only one, though, with some impact is Deon Cain, the Tigers' second leading receiver. He's a talented deep threat, but the Tigers have other weapons. 
Watson may be the best dual threat quarterback in the country. He has a superb running back in Wayne Gallman and talented receivers. The Tigers averaged nearly 40 points on the season - and they did it facing tougher defenses than Oklahoma did squaring off against Florida State, Boston College, North Carolina State and Notre Dame. 
I like Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield, too, but statistics are skewed from the Big 12 because it's such an offensive-oriented conference with several weak teams. Clemson has a very strong defense headed by lineman Shaq Lawson, who led the nation with 22 1/2 tackles for losses. 

USC is a team few opponents want to match up against in a bowl game. Wisconsin doesn't have the quarterback and skill level to beat the Trojans, especially when traveling to the West Coast to take on USC in its natural environs of Southern California. 
Big Ten teams aren't equipped to handle Pac-12 passing offenses and upper tier quarterbacks. USC has such a quarterback in Cody Kessler. He completed 67.6 percent of his passes this season. If you combine this season with last year, Kessler has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 67-to-11. 
Wisconsin's strength is its defense. But the Badgers don't have enough secondary depth to stop Kessler and a deep USC receiver group that had 10 players haul in double-digit receptions headed by dynamic sophomore Juju Smith-Schuster. He caught 85 passes for 1,389 yards and 10 touchdowns.
The Badgers can't match that because they have a below average quarterback, Joel Stave. He's been picked off six times in his last four games. Mediocre quarterbacking, with the exception of one year or Russell Wilson, is the norm at Wisconsin. The Badgers have always been able to overcome that because of an outstanding ground attack. That hasn't happened this season, though. The Badgers never adequately replaced Melvin Gordon. Wisconsin finished 97th in rushing yards. 
Wisconsin failed to beat a winning team this season. That's telling. USC had no bad losses except to Washington. The Trojans aren't as good as Stanford, Notre Dame and Oregon - all teams they lost to. But the Trojans are better than the Badgers with huge skill position edges at quarterback with Kessler, wide receiver with Smith-Schuster, all around player in Adoree Jackson and even running back with Ronald Jones II.  
USC has never lost to Wisconsin in six previous meetings. The Trojans have covered in nine of their last 12 games versus Big Ten schools. Wisconsin is 1-5 ATS the last six times it has played in neutral site games.  

I've always given credit to Minnesota for being a well-coached feisty team. I like the Gophers - when they are 'dogs not favorites. I'm not a fan of their quarterback, Mitch Leidner. He has just three more touchdown passes than interceptions on the season and completed less than 58 percent of his throws. Central Michigan has the far better quarterback, Cooper Rush, and the superior offense. Only 10 quarterbacks threw for more yards this season than Rush.
Rush threw for multiple touchdown passes in nine of 12 games. He has five players with 33 or more catches. Minnesota has an excellent secondary, but I like Rush especially on the fast track of indoor Ford Field.  
 Central Michigan should have a better following with this game being played in Detroit. Minnesota played two MAC schools and won by three points each time, beating Ohio and Kent State. Both Minnesota and Central Michigan played Kent State. Central Michigan beat Kent State, 27-14, while the Gophers nipped the Golden Flashes, 10-7.
The Chippewas are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games versus the Big Ten and 5-0 versus non-conference foes. 
After Jerry Kill was forced to step down to health issues, the Gophers went 1-4. They finished with only five wins, but earned a bowl bid based on their NCAA Academic Progress Report since not enough teams reached six wins necessary for bowl eligibility. So technically the Gophers don't even deserve to be here. I don't buy them as favorites against the caliber of quarterback they are facing and an opponent as feisty as they are.  

Given Arizona's home field advantage, the line is short here. Arizona ranks with Carolina and New England as one of the three best teams in football. Those three teams are complete teams without a weakness. The Packers are at a "B" level closer to "C" than "A" with their struggling passing attack. The Packers have been outgained on the season. 
Mike McCarthy rarely has led Green Bay to victory in games the Packers weren't expected to win. The Packers are just 17-16 in their last 33 away games with a losing spread mark in those games. This is Green Bay's second West Coast game in a row. 
The Cardinals are 25-4 with Carson Palmer under center. Palmer is backed by three good wide receivers, a reliable offensive line and exciting rookie David Johnson, who already has set a Cardinals first-year mark for most touchdowns in a season with a dozen. The Packers will be without their top cornerback, Sam Shields. 
The Cardinals rank in the top three in points scored, total yards and passing. They are 20-11 (65 percent) ATS when favored under Bruce Arians. The Packers are 3-10-1 ATS as underdogs since 2012.
Green Bay's passing attack is struggling and its ground attack remains inconsistent. Eddie Lacy is having a terrible season. Arizona's defense ranks in the top seven in fewest points allowed, yards given up and rush defense. The Cardinals have held seven of their last eight opponents to less than 100 yards on the ground.
Arizona's pass defense style is tight man press coverage. The Packers' wide receivers have trouble getting separation. Randall Cobb is Green Bay's only receiving playmaker with Jordy Nelson sidelined. So the Packers are going to have problems with this type of defense preferring soft Cover-2 zone types. 
Aaron Rodgers isn't on same page with McCarthy continually being frustrated by the Packers' regression in the passing game. Rodgers also will be without his blindside protector as left tackle David Bakhtiari is out. 

Much is being made of this being coach Frank Beamer's final game for Virginia Tech after 29 years. Truth be told, Beamer should have retired a few years ago because the Hokies have been going downhill. They were just 6-6 this season not clinching a bowl berth until their final regular season game. They are just 16-15 during their last 31 games and 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 non-conference games. 
Tulsa was one of the most improved teams in the country under first-year head coach Phil Montgomery. The Golden Hurricane are very dangerous offensively under the innovative Montgomery and they've been coming on as the players became more comfortable in his system scoring at least 38 points in all but one of their last six games. 
On the season, the Golden Hurricane average 35.9 points per game. Only 13 teams averaged more yards per game than the Golden Hurricane's 502 yards. They also ranked 11th in passing behind quarterback Dane Evans, who has a top target in Keyarris Garrett. Garrett had the second most receiving yards in the FBS with 1,451. 
I detect that Virginia Tech could be a little tight for this matchup trying to give Beamer a sendoff, while Tulsa will be loose without any pressure enjoying their first bowl game in three years. The Hokies also will be without three suspended seniors - starting linebacker Deon Clarke and two reserve receivers. 

The Clippers are a frustrated, bully type team. They've had problem beating elite teams while smashing bad clubs such as the Lakers. 

The Clippers are on a three-game losing streak having lost to the Spurs, Rockets and Thunder, 100-99, this past Monday. They haven't played since. I see the Clippers releasing their pent-up frustrations on the hapless Lakers. 

The Clippers seem to get a sadistic glee in pounding their long-time city rival. They've beaten the Lakers seven straight times winning by an average of nearly 25 points a game. In five of the last seven matchups, the Clippers have won by 23 or more points.

The Lakers have nowhere near the talent to compete against the Clippers facing Blake Griffin, Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan. The Clippers also have a far more talented bench. Note, too, there is no home-court advantage for the Lakers as both teams play at Staples Center. 

Cincinnati hopes to rebound from a disappointing season with a win here in the Hawaii Bowl. Don't look for that to happen. The matchup, spot, coaching and intangibles all clearly point to San Diego State, which enters this matchup red-hot winning nine in a row while coming within 1 1/2 points of also being 9-0 ATS. 
The Bearcats have regressed going from Brian Kelly to Tommy Tuberville. The Bearcats finished a disappointing third in the weak American Athletic Conference. Their loaded offense couldn't compensate for a terrible defense. Cincinnati lost to five of the six good teams on its schedule falling to Temple as a home favorite, Memphis, BYU, Houston and to South Florida by 38 points just two games ago. Only twice did the Bearcats win on the road and that came by three points against East Carolina on a field goal at the gun and a four-point win against Miami of Ohio when they were laying three touchdowns. 
Tuberville brings no confidence. Not only are the Bearcats traveling five time zones - their previous longest trip was to Provo, Utah where they lost by two touchdowns to BYU - but are 0-2 the past two seasons in bowl games under Tuberville. Cincinnati lost by 14 points as a short favorite last season to Virginia Tech and fell by 22 points to North Carolina two seasons ago as a short 'dog. 
San Diego State is far less likely to be distracted and bothered playing in Hawaii. They've won and covered this year and in 2013 at Hawaii. The Aztecs beat the Warriors, 28-14, in a pick'em game back in October when Hawaii was competitive. Unlike Cincinnati, San Diego State won't be leaving winter weather to travel and their time zone change is three hours shorter.
Most important is the matchup factors favor San Diego State, too. 
The line is shorter than I thought it would be possibly due to senior Maxwell Smart not starting for San Diego State due to an ACL injury he suffered two games ago. I'm expecting Smart to play, but I'm fine, too, if backup redshirt freshman Christian Chapman goes. He led the Aztecs to a 27-24 victory against Air Force in the Mountain West Conference title game passing for more than 200 yards.
The Aztecs aren't about throwing, though. They are about defense and D.J. Pumphrey, one of the top running backs in the country and the Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Year. He's rushed for 3,421 yards and scored 39 touchdowns the past two years. Cincinnati surrendered more than five yards per run, ranking 92nd in the nation in rush defense. 
San Diego State ranked in the top 10 defensively in fewest points, yards and rushing yards. By contrast, Cincinnati's defense ranked 89th in fewest points and 82nd in total yards. Redshirt freshman Hayden Moore will be making only his third start for Cincinnati. Gunner Kiel, who had started 23 of the Bearcats' last 25 games, won't play due to personal reasons.  
Moore has some excellent receiving targets, but not only is he facing a top defense but one of the more unconventional ones as San Diego State coach Rocky Long employs a unique 3-3-5 scheme. Moore can expect heavy pressure. 
Add it all up and San Diego State is an easy call. 

This is a stop-the-pain game for the Pacers and the spot sets up right.
Indiana is coming off road losses to Memphis and San Antonio. Now the Pacers return to Bankers Life Fieldhouse for this matchup before going back on the road Saturday. 
The Pacers have been tremendous at home going 10-1, including 8-3 ATS, in their last 11 games. Their only home loss during this span came to Golden State.
Sacramento concludes a four-game, six-day road trip with this game. The tired Kings rely heavily on DeMarcus Cousins, who is mired in a shooting slump making less than 38 percent of his field goal attempts in nine games this month. 
The Pacers aren't going to lack motivation as they lost both games to the Kings last season.  

Pacific is trying to unravel itself from a major mess involving academic misconduct. The fallout being the Tigers are 1-8 with their head coach and an assistant coach suspended indefinitely. There isn't a lot of incentive either even though this is their West Coast Conference opener as the Tigers are under a postseason ban as part of the sanctions. 
Santa Clara has a lot of youth, but also has come on to win four of its last five games. The Broncos have a pair of outstanding players, guard Jared Brownridge and forward Nate Kratch. Brownridge had 44 points in an overtime loss to 10th-ranked Arizona. He's averaging 18.9 points. Kratch is one of the best inside players in the conference averaging 12.4 points and 9.3 rebounds. 
Pacific could be without center and third leading scorer, T.J. Wallace. He has been bothered by a toe injury. Note, too, that the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the series. 

Only once in seven games have the Cardinals lost on the road. They have the passing attack and pass defense to easily cover this number against the Eagles and win their eighth consecutive game.
Arizona is first in yards per game and No. 2 in scoring averaging 31.2 points. Carson Palmer has thrown for 31 touchdown passes, second-highest in the league. The Eagles have surrendered 29 touchdown throws, second-most in the league. In their last six games, the Eagles have permitted 19 touchdown passes with only four interceptions as injuries make their already ineffective secondary worse. Palmer has a healthy receiving group and should have a clean pocket as the Eagles have only managed one sack or fewer in three of their past four games. 
Palmer can rely, too, on big-play David Johnson as his featured running back. The Eagles have yielded an average of 4.92 yards per carry to running backs during their last seven games. 
Arizona is 24-4 with Palmer under center. The Cardinals also are 19-11 (63%) ATS when favored under Bruce Arians, who has extra prep time this week with the Cardinals having played last Thursday. 
The Eagles need an "A" game to hang in against the Cardinals. They haven't produced one all season. The Eagles' ground attack has turned out to be overrated and is a mess right now. Arizona has held six of its last seven opponents to under 100 yards rushing. 
The Eagles haven't scored more than 23 points since Week 9. They struggle against tight man coverage, which the Cardinals are talented enough to play. The Cardinals rank fifth in the NFL in pass defense. Only six teams surrender fewer points per game than the Cardinals, which hold foes to 19.4 points a game. 

New Mexico State had no problem with Texas El-Paso just 17 days ago, winning 73-59 at home. The Miners couldn't stop Pascal Siakam, who scored 24 points and pulled down 23 rebounds. 
This isn't some fluke. The Aggies won the Western Athletic Conference last season and WAC Tournament. They are favored to do it again this season thanks in large part to Siakam, who is the best player in the conference and someone UTEP has problems matching up against. 
Siakam already been named the conference player of the week three times. Siakam ranks in the top 10 in the country in scoring, rebounding and field goal percentage.
The teams have played five times since 2013 with the Aggies going 4-1. Their only loss to UTEP during this span came by one point last season on the road. 
I don't believe UTEP is the better team. So getting points is an added bonus. 

Dallas can't win with a quarterback as bad as Matt Cassel under center against a quality opponent such as the Jets. The Cowboys are 1-6 in Cassel's seven starts. All of the losses except one have been by more than three points. 
Dallas can't win outside of its weak NFC East Division. They are 1-7 in non-division games. 
Dallas is bad at home. The Cowboys are 2-8, including losing five in a row, during their last 10 home contests. 
The Jets underachieved the last couple of seasons. A main reason for that was the poor coaching of Rex Ryan. That's changed under Todd Bowles, a much better coach than Ryan. The Jets have playoff talent. Bowles is getting the most out of it.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is having a career season. He's played as well as any quarterback during the last three weeks posting 100-plus ratings in each game during this span with a combined 9-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

Memphis matches up well to the Mavericks as evidenced by the Grizzlies covering four of the last five in this series, including defeating Dallas, 110-96, at home on Nov. 24.

The smallish, finesse Mavericks have trouble against the taller, more physical Grizzlies in the frontcourt. The Grizzlies outscored the Mavericks by 26 points in the paint during that last meeting and that was without Zach Randolph. Marc Gasol and Randolph are two of the most physical players in the league. 
The Mavericks are a jump-shooting team whose key shooters are on a cold streak. Dirk Nowitzki is just 20-for-55 (36.3 percent) from the field in his last five games while Wesley Matthews has missed 16 of 23 shots from the floor in his last two games. 
Dallas isn't playing well losing eight of its last 13. The Mavericks also are banged up. Backup point guard Devin Harris may not play and Chandler Parsons is dealing with a knee injury. 
The Grizzlies are just 14-13, but have played a difficult schedule. They've been better on the road going 7-5-1 ATS compared to 4-10 ATS at home. They are 3-1-1 the past five times they've been road 'dogs. 

The spot and situation set up perfect for Milwaukee. The Bucks are 5-0 ATS this season when playing without rest. The Bucks will be highly motivated after coach Jason Kidd ripped them for their embarrassing 113-95 loss to the Lakers last night.
Obviously the Bucks were in a major letdown spot still celebrating ending Golden State's 24-0 start during their previous game. The Bucks should be far more intense for this matchup. They won't have leading scorer and rebounder Greg Monroe back after he missed the Lakers game with a knee injury. But the Bucks have had a game to adjust to Monroe's absence. 
The Clippers just returned from a five-game, 10-day road trip that concluded with an overtime victory against the Pistons on Monday night. The Clippers' main stars - Blake Griffin, Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan - all logged major minutes. The Clippers are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home games and have a far bigger game on deck Friday when they play the Spurs on the road. 

The Rockets are 7-3 in their last 10 games snapping out of their early season funk. They match up well to the Kings - particularly James Harden - having defeated them seven consecutive times. Houston is 8-2 in its last 10 visits to Sacramento.
Houston catches a break in that the Kings will be without suspended point guard Rajon Rondo. Harden is averaging 37 points and 11 assists in two games against Sacramento this season - both victories. Career-wise, Harden averages 33 points against the Kings, the highest he averages against any opponent. 
Sacramento defeated the Knicks, 99-97, in its last game. That was back on Thursday, though. Not playing for fourth straight days is too long of a break for an NBA team during this point of the season. The Kings also happen to be 6-19-1 ATS following a victory. 

The Rockets are in double revenge mode against the Nuggets. Houston is much more together and playing far better than the last two times it played and lost to Denver, including being embarrassed at home by 20 points in its opening game. 
The Rockets are 7-2 in their last nine games. The team has responded to interim coach J.B. Bickerstaff. Houston always had the talent, but the right coaching had to come into place. One move that has paid major dividends is starting Patrick Beverly at point guard instead of Ty Lawson, who wasn't a good fit in the backcourt with offensive-minded James Harden. 
Houston is averaging 111.7 points in its last nine games. Denver averages fewer than 97 points a game. The Rockets have reached triple digits in each of their last nine games. 
The Nuggets are not in Houston's class. They haven't been good at home either going 4-7 at Pepsi Center with all of their defeats coming by seven or more points. Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. 
Denver has injuries, too. Starting point guard Emmanuel Mudiay is out leaving washed-up Jameer Nelson to soak up the most minutes. The Nuggets also have injuries in their frontcourt. 

 

Chicago is fired-up and angry after blowing a home game to San Francisco this past Sunday. I like the Bears' coaching edge and situation advantage against Washington, which is traveling on a short week following a home loss on Monday night to division rival Dallas. 
The Redskins have been terrible on the road losing the past nine times while going 2-7 ATS. They are 0-5 away this season outscored by 76 points in these matchups for an average losing margin of 15.2 points. 
During the Jay Gruden era, the Redskins are 1-12 on the road, 4-9 ATS. They have lost by 10 or more points in eight of those 12 road contests. 
Kirk Cousins has a 5-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the road with a completion rate of less than 62 percent. The Bears rank No. 2 in pass defense.
Not only do I like the Bears' passing game more with Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery, but also their ground attack with a two-headed monster of Matt Forte and Jeremy Langford. 
The Redskins are a ground-and-pound team, but they don't run well nor stop the run. The Redskins rank 26th in run defense and 25th in rushing. 

Gonzaga is far from in peak shape. The Bulldogs are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games. They lost to Arizona, 68-63, at home last Saturday and just nipped Montana, 61-58, at home this past Tuesday as 17 1/2-point favorites.
UCLA is more than capable of springing the upset. Just ask Kentucky. The Bruins beat the Wildcats, 87-77, two games ago as 6 1/2-point home 'dogs. The Bruins have had a week to prepare for this matchup having been idle the past six days. 
The Bruins are tough to defend because they have a well balanced lineup. All five of their starters can score. UCLA can hang with Gonzaga on the boards and are a much better free throw shooting team. 
UCLA also has revenge for an 87-74 home loss to the Bulldogs last season. 

Charlotte is playing its best ball winning four in a row. The Hornets are giving up just 90 points per game during this span. Sparked by improved Kemba Walker and newcomer Nicolas Batum, who is enjoying a big comeback season, the Hornets have quietly won 14 of their last 19 and own the second-best record in the Eastern Conference. 
The Hornets' confidence is sky high after burying Memphis, 123-99, on the road last night. The lopsided margin allowed Charlotte to rest its regulars down the stretch. Only Walker logged more than 31 minutes. 
Boston also played well last night - but lost 124-119 in double overtime to undefeated Golden State at home. The Celtics probably should have won the game. It was a monster effort by the Celtics. Boston has good depth and is well coached. However, I can't see the Celtics turning out another strong, motivated performance off this brutal loss and with no rest on the road against a team that is playing as well as Charlotte is. The timing is all wrong for Boston. 
The Hornets have won 10 of their last 13 home contests. They are better than Boston, at home and in a much better situation spot. 

Orlando is much improved, playing far better defense under Scott Skiles than they did under Jacque Vaughn last season. The Magic's young players are developing well under Skills, too.
But the Magic aren't ready to step up against Cleveland as this low spread may indicate. 
The Cavaliers have defeated Orlando 11 consecutive times, winning those matchups by an average of 14.1 points a game. They defeated the Magic, 117-103, at home on Nov. 23. Cleveland has covered in its last six visits to Orlando.
The Magic can now beat bad teams. But they have struggled against elite foes. Their best win is against Toronto. The Magic lack a go-to scorer. They struggle in close games often taking bad shots late in games and losing composure. The veteran Cavaliers can exploit that.  
Orlando has no answer for LeBron James. There's a chance the Cavaliers could also get back Iman Shumpert here. I can't see the Magic having the consistency for four quarters that is necessary to beat an opponent the caliber of Cleveland. 
James is going to get to the free throw line often as Orlando gives up the fourth-most foul shots per 48 minutes in the league. The Magic, however, just rank 28th in free throws attempted. So I envision a disparity in free throw shots between the two teams as the youthful Magic get too pumped for this marquee opponent.
The spot isn't good either for the Magic. The Cavaliers have been idle since Tuesday. Orlando, on the other hand, finished a five-game, 10-day road trip with a 107-104 loss to the Suns this past Wednesday night leaving them little time to get back adjusted to Florida life.  

It's difficult enough being the road team for a Thursday night game. It's especially difficult for the Vikings traveling to the desert following a mentally and physically draining 38-7 home loss to Seattle this past Sunday.
Arizona is 17-4 under Bruce Arians when playing at the University of Phoenix Stadium. The Cardinals have won 14 of their last 16 home games when Carson Palmer has been under center. Palmer has a 38-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio in these games. 
Sparked by Palmer, an MVP candidate, the Cardinals rank first in the NFL in yards and points per game. They draw a battered Vikings defense missing three of their key defenders in injured safety Harrison Smith, nose tackle Linval Joseph and linebacker Anthony Barr. That's too much for the Vikings to overcome especially on a short week with long travel involved when their is limited time to make adjustments. 
The Vikings lack the necessary strong passing game to keep up with Palmer and high-powered Cardinals offense. 

I believe the wrong team is favored. Both teams are .500, but Long Beach State has played a far more difficult schedule, one of the toughest non-conference slates in the country. That's going to help the 49ers here.
Long Beach State is 5-5. But its losses have come to Virginia, Oklahoma State twice, San Diego State and UCLA. Those were all on the road, too. This has made the 49ers battle-tested and underrated. 
The 49ers are an excellent 3-point shooting team with good depth. Nick Faust just was named Big West Conference Player of the Week this past Monday. The Maryland transfer is living up to his billing averaging better than 17 points per game.
Sophomore point guard Justin Bibbins is playing well, too, keeping up the 49ers' tradition of good point guards. Bibbins has done the job replacing three-year starter Michael Caffey, ranking second in the Big West in assists and being 16th in the nation in assists-to-turnovers. 
Pepperdine doesn't have Long Beach State's offense, is undersized and turnover-prone. The 49ers average four more points per game than the Waves and are better from the free throw line. Pepperdine lost by 14 to UCLA on the road earlier this season, while Long Beach State fell to the Bruins by seven in its last game this past Sunday. 
The 49ers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games, while Pepperdine has failed to cover in seven of its last nine games. 

It took the firing of Kevin McHale and getting Ty Lawson out of the starting point guard role, but the Rockets are finally coming on. They've won three in a row and five of their last six. 
Houston has beaten the Nets in 11 of its last 12 visits. The Rockets catch the Nets shorthanded missing two of their rotation players, Andrea Bargnani and rookie Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, who had been providing Brooklyn with a spark. 
Patrick Beverly is a much better point guard fit for the Rockets than the diminutive Lawson because he's unselfish and is a much better defender. James Harden needs to be able to concentrate on his offense. Harden has been playing up to his superstar level since the change. 
The Rockets aren't shy about shooting 3-pointers with Harden. The Nets rank 27th in 3-point defense. 
This isn't a flat spot game either for the Rockets. They have revenge for when the Nets beat them in Houston, 106-98, on Nov. 11 when they weren't playing well. 

The Nets are last in 3-pointers and third-to-last in scoring. They haven't reached triple digits in their last six games. 

Through the course of the long NBA season there are certain up and down spots. Phoenix is in one of the major down spots in its season both physically and mentally. 
The Suns are playing their sixth road game in nine days, fifth in seven days and second in two days. After this matchup in Chicago, the Suns finally get to head back to the desert. where they haven't been since the day after Thanksgiving. 
Not only do the Suns carry the highest fatigue rating, but they are demoralized and down mentally. They are 1-8 in their last nine games, 0-4 in their last four games blowing fourth-quarter leads during each game of their losing streak. The worst was on Sunday when the Suns came from six points down against the always physical Grizzlies with 90 seconds left. 
The Suns managed to tie the score and had the ball for a final shot. However, with less than a second left Brandon Knight lost the ball out of bounds. The Grizzlies then managed to pull off a perfect half-court alley-oop pass to Jeff Green for a dunk and a 95-93 victory. Eric Bledsoe and Jon Leuer each logged more than 40 minutes in the game while Brandon Knight played more than 37 minutes. The Suns do not have a strong bench. 
During their four-game losing streak, the Suns have lost by a combined 13 points. None of their defeats was by more than five points. They are due to get blown out and the Bulls have the capability and situation to do just that. 

Chicago has the fifth highest winning percentage in the NBA. The Bulls beat the Suns, 103-97, on the road on Nov. 18 without Derrick Rose and when Phoenix had Tyson Chandler. The big center has missed the last five games with a hamstring injury and is not expected to play today. Memphis scored 48 points in the paint yesterday against the Suns, who are vulnerable inside without their best rim defender. 

The Bulls shouldn't lack for motivation. They are off an embarrassing, 102-96, home loss to Charlotte from two days ago. The Bulls have won and covered the past five times following a defeat. 

This is a kill spot for the rested Grizzlies against the weary Suns. Phoenix, with its small lineup, doesn't match up well to the physical Grizzlies. Phoenix has lost during its last seven meetings to Memphis.
That's not going to change here. The Suns are playing their fifth consecutive road game and fourth in five days. This is an early start time, too, another negative for the Suns. The Suns are are an up-tempo, guard-oriented team that is running on empty. The Suns also could be without their lone decent big man, Tyson Chandler, for a fifth straight game.  
The Grizzlies are 8-3 in their last 11 games, having stepped up their play. But they are off their most lopsided loss in a month falling to San Antonio, 103-83, at home this past Thursday. They've had two full days to regroup and get psyched up to take their frustrations out on the Suns. 
Phoenix just wants to get home. The Suns have lost seven of their past eight playing no defense giving up 113.4 points per game during this span. The Grizzlies offense has picked up with the recent recent pick up of Mario Chalmers. Before losing to the Spurs, the Grizzlies had scored 101 or more points in five of their last six games. 

The Cardinals have revenge for a frustrating 24-22 loss to the Rams in Week 4 when they had to settle for four field goals in four touchdown-less red zone trips. 
Arizona still is playing at an elite level, while the wheels have come off for the Rams. They've lost four in a row and there's talk Jeff Fisher could be out as coach. 
Carson Palmer ranks among the top three in passer rating, touchdown throws and yards passing. The Cardinals have won in 22 of his last 26 starts. He has a full complement of receivers now, too, with Michael Floyd and John Brown healthy.
The Rams have the worst passing attack. Neither Nick Foles nor Case Keenum, who is likely to be back under center, is NFL-starter quality. The Rams try to compensate with running back Todd Gurley. But with a decimated offensive line and defenses keying on him, Gurley has been held to an average of less than 44 yards rushing per game and 2.8 yards per carry during his last three games. Arizona has a top five run defense.
St. Louis' defense is getting worn down from having to carry such a weak offense. A strong pass rush has been their calling card. However, the Rams have managed just four sacks in their last four games. 
The Rams have one of the weaker home fields in the league due to rumors of their moving and their poor record. 
This game sets up well for the Cardinals and the line figures to keep growing. So my advice is to lock in now. 

Orlando has won five in a row. The Clippers are going to be without star point guard Chris Paul and possibly starting shooting guard J.J. Redick. 
But there still is enough of a class difference that the Clippers should win especially at home. 
Orlando's victories during its win streak have been against the Knicks, Celtics, Bucks, Timberwolves and Jazz minus Rudy Gobert. This is a step-up game for the Magic. 
The Clippers swept last season's two meetings winning by an average of 26 points. Orlando is much improved this season under Scott Skiles, but the gap hasn't been cut nearly enough where the Magic can win this game even without Paul.
The Clippers have a veteran, strong bench. The Clippers can overcome the loss of their starting backcourt and will be fired-up to play after being embarrassed at home by the Pacers in their last game this past Wednesday. 

The Knicks are improved this season, but the Nets are way under the radar screen. The perception is the Nets are one of the  worst teams in the league. They fulfilled those low expectations and increased that perception by losing their first seven games, covering just once.
Since then, however, the Nets have gone 10-1 ATS. During this span they took unbeaten Golden State to overtime on the road, lost by two to the Cavaliers on the road while posting victories against the Rockets, Hawks, Celtics, Pistons and Suns. They have stayed within two points in regulation in eight of their last 11 games. 
Brooklyn has covered six of its last seven away contests and enter this matchup in good form and with the confidence of having gone 4-0 versus the Knicks last season.
The Nets last played on Tuesday when they defeated the Suns, 94-91. During the weekend they lost 90-88 at Cleveland when LeBron James sank a last-second shot and then defeated the Pistons on Sunday. The Nets are a sparkling 8-0 ATS on two days rest. 
The Knicks halted a four-game losing streak by beating the lowly 76ers on Wednesday taking advantage of a favorable situation where Philadelphia had just ended the longest losing streak in pro sports history the night before and were playing the Knicks without their leading scorer and rebounder, Jahlil Okafor. The Knicks have failed to cover the past four times when playing on one day rest. 

This may be the only time all season, but the 76ers are in a letdown spot. Philadelphia got the monkey off its back ending its 28-game losing streak by beating the Lakers, 103-91, at home last night. 
Now the 76ers have to play 24 hours later on the road - and for the third time in four days - against a Knicks team that desperately needs to win this game. The 76ers lack the maturity and experience to play well without rest after an emotional victory. 
New York has been idle since Sunday. The Knicks have lost four in a row after a tough overtime loss to Houston. The Knicks were missing Carmelo Anthony due to illness in that loss. He's expected to play today. 
The Knicks have increased their firepower with Anthony, a now healthy Arron Affalo and good-looking rookie Kristaps Porzingis, who is averaging 17 points and 11.6 rebounds during his last five games. 

The Bucks have revenge for a 103-102 loss to the Nuggets on Nov. 11. The Bucks were minus Michael Carter-Williams and Jabari Parker in that game. 
Denver has lost six in a row. The Nuggets have failed to cover in their last five games.
The Bucks are the deeper team and have shown signs of playing better defense.

The Bucks have the defensive guards and depth to exploit Denver rookie point guard Emmanuel Mudiay, who is on pace to become the first player in league history to shoot less than 35 percent from the field and commit an average of three turnovers a game. 

So why back a San Diego team that is 2-8 and has lost six in a row as a monster 50-Dime play? A combination of Philip Rivers, a due factor and the Jaguars being overpriced.
Jacksonville doesn't beat teams. Opponents lose to them. There's a difference. San Diego is approaching this matchup as a challenge and a test of character. Non-division foes usually treat the Jaguars with overconfidence.
Yes, the Jaguars are better than last season. Their defense is more competitive and Blake Bortles has improved in his second season. But the Jaguars still are not very good. They've gone six consecutive games with at least one turnover. Bortles is always live for a pick-six and has been sacked more than any other quarterback during the last two seasons. The Chargers' pass rush has gotten better recording 18 sacks during their last seven games. 
Rivers makes the Chargers competitive. He's having another super season throwing for the second-most yards in the league while leading the NFL in completions and throwing for 19 touchdowns. 
San Diego was blown out by the Chiefs in their last game. People remember that. Maybe they should also recall the Chargers losing to the then unbeaten Bengals by five points, nearly forcing overtime against the Packers when they were stopped at the 3-yard line on fourth down and goal at the end of the game and falling to Baltimore on the last play of the game. All of those games were on the road.
When it comes to coaching, I like Mike McCoy much better than Gus Bradley. McCoy is innovative and tough on non-division foes not familiar with him. Bradley is too conservative, one of those many coaches who plays not to lose rather than win. 

The won-lost record is terrible, but quietly the Nets have covered seven of their last eight games. They are 4-0 ATS this season when getting 10 or more points.
The Nets are a veteran team that should be motivated going against LeBron James. The Cavaliers aren't so excited about playing the lowly Nets especially after ending a three-game road losing streak by defeating Charlotte, 95-90, last night. James played 38 minutes in that game so he's likely not to log such a high minute count in this matchup. 
While the Cavaliers were playing a tough game last night, the Nets have been idle the past two days. Brooklyn is 7-0 ATS the last seven times when playing on two days rest. They also are 21-7 ATS when going against an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. 
The Cavaliers have failed to cover eight of the last 10 times following a victory. The Cavaliers, still minus Kyrie Irving, have yet to come together. They have a tendency to play to the level of their competition. That's evident in the Cavaliers just beating the winless 76ers by seven and six points this season. 

Michigan State didn't do Michigan any favors beating Ohio State last week ending the Buckeyes' 23-game winning streak. The Buckeyes are going to be super focused now and ready for this game and not just because of the long-time intense rivalry. Ohio State has proven itself on the road covering 71 percent of its last 56 road games. 
Jim Harbaugh has been everything Michigan could have hoped for this season restoring the Wolverines back into elite status. But Michigan isn't in Ohio State's class yet. 
The Buckeyes have won 10 of the last 11 in the series. Urban Meyer won't hold a coaching edge like he has on past Michigan coaches, but he does still have a talent advantage.
Ezekiel Elliott is going to get the ball a lot. He didn't show a lot of class after the Buckeyes fell to the Spartans, but he's one of the best running backs in the country. Elliott has rushed for 3,336 yards the past two seasons and scored 35 touchdowns. Michigan couldn't stop Indiana on the ground two weeks ago as Jordan Howard ran for 238 yards and two touchdowns on 35 carries.. Ohio State has a better ground attack than the Hooisers. The Wolverines aren't going to be able to control Elliott, who will set things up for J.T. Barrett. 
 I'm not a huge fan of Michigan quarterback Jake Rudock, even though he has played well lately. He's not good enough to carry the Wolverines if they don't establish at least a semblance of a ground attack, which I don't see them doing. The Buckeyes have an extremely physical line. De'Veon Smith is the Wolverines' starting running back, but he's a grinder not suited to attack a physical defense. 

The Buckeyes rank 30th in run defense and fifth in pass defense. Only two players in the country have more career sacks than Ohio State's Joey Bosa, who has 25. 

Sometimes the best handicap formula is just the most obvious. Carolina is better than Dallas and it's not even close. 
I understand timing is very important in NFL games. It's not always who you play, but when you play. 
The Cowboys are 3-0 when Tony Romo has been under center. He'll be playing Thursday and shouldn't have any rust after returning last Sunday after missing seven games. The Cowboys are home and in a desperate spot being 3-7. 
I would be surprised if Dallas didn't put forth a full, focused effort and played a good game. I'm expecting that. But it's not going to be enough to beat Carolina. 
It's not just happenstance that the Panthers are 14-1 in their last 15 games. They have a tremendous defense, much superior's to Dallas. Carolina ranks in the top eight in all of the most important defensive categories, including rating in the top five in allowing the fewest yards and points per game. Linebacker Luke Kuechly and cornerback Josh Norman are two of the best defensive players in the league. 
The Panthers have outgained their opponent in 15 of their last 17 games. It's impossible to predict turnovers, but the Panthers are No. 1 in takeaways/giveaways at plus 13. Dallas is second-to-last with a minus nine turnover ratio.
Thanks to Cam Newton's MVP-candidate type season, the Panthers are the third highest scoring team in the NFL at 29.9 points per game. Newton has accounted for 38 touchdowns in his last 15 games. Jonathan Stewart is a much better running back than recycled Darren McFadden. The Panthers received some good news this week in that left guard Andrew Norwell will be back after missing the last three games. He could be the Panthers' first or second-best offensive lineman. 

Not only are the Texans on a short week in an emotionally distracting week following their Monday road upset win against the Bengals, but backup T.J. Yates is their quarterback for this game.
Brian Hoyer is near the bottom among starting quarterbacks. But Yates is far worse. He's a game-managing, dump-off passer who won't have his former security blanket, Arian Foster.
This is a circle-the-wagon game for the Jets, who have lost three of their last four. They have the better skill position players and the superior defense.
The Jets have had extra time to rest and prepare having last played a week ago from Thursday. That's allowed Nick Mangold and a beaten-up secondary to recover along with Ryan Fitzpatrick, who formerly played for the Texans. 

The oddsmaker continues to underrate the Magic and he's doing it again in this matchup. 
Orlando has one of the best spread marks in the league at 8-3-1. The Magic are a respectable 6-6 straight-up. The actually could be 10-2 if they had not blown late leads against the Wizards twice, Thunder and Rockets. 
Still, Orlando has won five of its last seven games. The Magic players are pumped to go above .500 for the first time especially accomplishing the feat at home. 
The Magic have really improved their defense under Scott Skiles going from 25th in defensive efficiency to ranking in the top five. 
Orlando draws the Kings playing in their third road game in four days. This could take a toll on fragile point guard Rajon Rondo, who is playing well but logging huge minutes. Sacramento has a poor road history and that's holding up this season. The Kings have yet to win in four away games.
There's a possibility the Kings could be without their second-best player, Rudy Gay. He suffered a shoulder injury in the Kings' last game. 

The 76ers' losing streak is now at 22, including 0-12 this season following a humiliating 112-85 home loss to Indiana two nights ago. 
Even the 76ers have a certain pride level - and it has kicked in following that dreadful defeat. 
Philadelphia opens a six-game road trip against Charlotte, an improved club but not a power by any means. Charlotte is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 home games versus opponents with a losing mark. 
The 76ers have played better on the road where there has been less pressure and no booing from their disgusted home crowd. The 76ers have responded by covering three of their last four away contests. 
During this span, Philadelphia lost to the Bucks by just four points, to the Cavaliers by six and to the Spurs by nine. The Hornets played the Spurs on the road, too, and lost by 20 points.
The 76ers aren't without talent with rookie-of-the-year candidate Jahil Okafor, Nerlens Noel and point guard T.J. McConnell. 

Orlando is one of the most improved teams in the league as its young talent matures and reaches its potential. The oddsmaker hasn't fully grasped how good Orlando is as the Magic own the best point spread mark in the NBA at 8-3 ATS. 
The Magic are home here and catch Minnesota in a letdown spot.
The Timberwolves upset the Heat, 103-91, at Miami last night. 
The Magic have dominated the Timberwolves winning 11 of the last 13 in the series, including seven in a row at home covering the past five times in those games. 
It's an added plus for the Magic if Victor Oladipo returns to the lineup. 

This is Brooklyn's first home game in 11 days. The Nets just returned from a four-game road trip where they beat the struggling Rockets and nearly upset the Kings and Warriors during their past two games. 
The Nets have failed to cover in their last four home games. I don't like the spot they are in after being gone from home for so long. The Hawks are the superior team and are not going to take the 1-9 Nets lightly after losing 97-96 at home to Utah this past Sunday.
Atlanta is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games. The spread is low because point guard Jeff Teague may be out. He didn't play Sunday versus the Jazz due to an ankle injury. I'm fine if Teague can't play because Dennis Schroder is a reliable backup. 
The Hawks match up well to the Nets, who lack the necessary rebounding to take advantage of Atlanta's vulnerability on the boards. Atlanta has won the past six games in the series, including whipping the Nets, 101-87, in Atlanta on Nov. 4. The Nets couldn't stop the Hawks' pick-and-roll in that game. 

Power-ratings-wise I have Utah favored by more than this line.  Look for San Diego State to have problems containing Utah center Jakob Poeltl. The Utes are going to be tough especially with the improvement made by sophomore forward Kyle Kuzma. 

San Diego State is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games. Utah is a dominant 40-14 the past 54 times at home. 

The Seahawks haven't lost a game coming off a bye since 2012. I don't see them losing at home either in this matchup. Seattle is 4-4. Arizona is 6-2. Obviously this is a must-win spot for Seattle. 
The Cardinals haven't faced a defense of this caliber on the road all season. Their offense is good, but not as powerful as the statistics show. Arizona has won five of its six games against defenses that are ranked among the bottom nine - Saints, Browns, 49ers, Lions and Ravens. 
The one really good defense the Cardinals went against was the Rams - and that was at home. The Cardinals still lost that game. Seattle's defense is picking up steam. Look for the "Legion of Boom" to be in full force. 
The bye week came at a good time for Seattle, which was in need of regrouping. Their offensive line should perform better with left tackle Russell Okung expected back. Then there is the Seahawks' dominant home field advantage. During the last four years, the Seahawks are 28-3 at CenturyLink Field, 20-10-1 ATS. 

Memphis is a disappointing 4-6. But the Grizzlies have taken care of business when playing bad teams beating the Pacers early in the season before Indiana got turned around, beating the Nets and Kings by double-digits and holding a fourth-quarter 10-point lead on Portland this past Friday before winning by just one point.
Nearly all of the Grizzlies' losses have all come to good teams - Warriors twice, Cavaliers, Clippers, Jazz and at the Trail Blazers, who are much stronger at home. 
The Timberwolves are not in that class. After opening the season with consecutive victories, the Timberwolves have reverted back to their losing form and lack of defense. Minnesota has lost its last three games. The Timberwolves are giving up an average of 111.8 points per game during their last four games. They have been without point guard Ricky Rubio in their last three games. Rubio is questionable today because of his hamstring injury. 
The Timberwolves also have been without center Nikola Pekovic. He remains sidelined indefinitely following surgery on his Achilles tendon. The Timberwolves are really going to miss him in this matchup against the physical, frontcourt dominated Grizzlies. Marc Gasol is beginning to elevate his game. He's averaging 28.5 points on 51.5 percent shooting from the floor during the last two games. 
Minnesota has been particularly bad at home going 0-4 SU and ATS at Target Center this season. Going back to last season, the Timberwolves are 0-12, 1-11 ATS at home. 

Memphis has won in seven of its last nine visits to Minnesota. The Grizzlies strengthened their backcourt with the addition of veteran Mario Chalmers, who looked good in his Memphis debut two nights ago. 
The Grizzlies have won 50 or more games each of the last three seasons. They are proven winners and have the same players back. Slow start or not, they remain vastly superior to Minnesota. 

Everything is in place for Washington State to pull the upset and defeat UCLA. Even if that doesn't happen, the Cougars should definitely be able to hang in. To get double-digits is a nice bonus. 
I like UCLA freshman quarterback Josh Rosen. But I really like Washington State sophomore quarterback Luke Falk. He leads the country in passing yards with 3,376. He's also tied for second in touchdown throws with 33 against just seven interceptions. 
The Bruins defense has been hit hard by injuries. There isn't a senior starter left. The Bruins shut out Oregon State last week. I actually believe that works in Washington State's favor. Not only did it perhaps play a part in this inflated line, but it gives the Bruins a false sense of confidence. 
Oregon State has a depleted offense. The Cougars are cooking behind Falk. The team is comfortable in Mike Leach's high octane system this being his fourth season in Pullman. The Bruins haven't had experience dealing with Leach's unique schemes being so young on defense. 
Washington State has won seven of its last eight games while also going 7-1 ATS. The Cougars are 4-2 in the Pac-12 with their defeats occurring to California by six and Stanford by two. The Cougars led by more than a touchdown in the second half against both of those teams. 
Washington State has covered all six of its Pac-12 games. The Cougars are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games. Playing in the Rose Bowl is a big deal to them. UCLA has covered only one of its last six home games and is 3-7 ATS the past 10 times as home chalk. 

California has won its last nine opening games. That streak should easily continue against Rice.
The Golden Bears are going to be extremely strong this season with three of their top scorers back and bringing in a strong recruiting class. The Golden Bears are especially strong in the backcourt where Jordan Mathews and Jabari Bird are now joined by Georgetown transfer Stephen Domingo. 
Cal also has a pair of 7-footers coming off the bench to bolster its already strong frontcourt that will have a huge size advantage in this matchup.
Rice is an extremely young team that is going to be vulnerable early in the season with just one senior and 10 freshmen/sophomores.  

Neither team is playing well. The difference is the Grizzlies are a proven playoff contender with the same solid core that made them one of the best teams in the NBA. The Trail Blazers are a stripped down version that can't match the Grizzlies' front line and lacks depth. 
Add in a favorable situation for Memphis and it's worth the investment to lay the points. 
This sets up well as a stop-the-pain game for the Grizzlies. They've dropped four in a row. The losing streak began in Portland eight days ago when the Grizzlies were blown out in embarrassing fashion, 115-96. 
Memphis then lost road games to the Jazz and Clippers by two points before returning home to lose to the world champion Warriors two nights ago. 
The Grizzlies have proven talent and depth. They have been one of the premier defensive teams. They haven't suddenly stopped being good. They've just run into tough competition. Now they step down in class and have tremendous motivation. 
Portland has lost three in a row. The Trail Blazers are giving up 113.7 points per game during its losing skid. Opponents are shooting better than 52 percent from the field during this time span. 
The Trail Blazers are a bad road team - 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 away contests - and have traditionally struggled at Memphis losing the past seven times there. The Grizzlies are 5-0-1 ATS the last six times hosting Portland. 
Damian Lillard, Portland's best player, is dealing with a torn nail on his right thumb. Portland needs all the big men it can muster against Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and Co. But the Trail Blazers could be without center Meyers Leonard, who suffered a dislocated shoulder in Portland's last game. 

This is the home game the Mavericks have had circled ever since DeAndre Jordan backed out of his word to come to Dallas. After Jordan verbally agreed to sign with the Mavericks in free agency, various Clippers personnel came to his home and convinced him to change his mind. 
The Mavericks did not take kindly to this dirty pool. 
Dallas is down this year. The Mavericks are not in the Clippers' class. They are borderline playoff team at best. But they will be going all out in this matchup. 
The Mavericks played their entire 13-man roster last night in a 120-105 road loss to the Pelicans. The Mavericks were never in that game. Dallas coach Rick Carlisle sacrificed that game to set up this spot. No Dallas starter logged more than 23 minutes last night. 
The Clippers aren't going to be taking this game as serious as Dallas is especially after whipping the Mavericks, 104-88, in LA on Oct. 29. The Mavericks shot just 36.1 percent from the floor in that game and didn't have Chandler Parsons, Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews. All three veterans will be on the floor tonight. 
That was a rough game with four technical fouls called along with a number of hard fouls. Jordan is the worst free throw shooter in the NBA making only 34 percent of his free throws. Jordan is likely to go to the foul line a lot. 
Chris Paul isn't 100 percent due to a sore groin. The Clippers defeated the Grizzlies two days ago. They are 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing on one day's rest. They also have a division road game on Thursday night against the Suns. That's a bigger game for them. It's also my Game of the Week! 

San Diego isn't nearly good enough to overcome its multitude of injuries to beat many teams by more than a field goal, including the Bears. 
The Chargers have lost six of their last seven game. They are on a four-game losing streak. The Chargers' two victories have come by a total of eight points. Those wins were against the Lions and Browns, whose combined record is 3-14. 
Chicago has been better than perceived thanks to excellent coaching from head coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam Gase, both of whom came from the Broncos and are very familiar with San Diego. The Chargers, though, aren't so familiar with the Bears, who they last played in 2011. 
Each of the Bears' last four games have been decided by three or fewer points. Jay Cutler has been much better this season. He's been aided greatly by the well-respected Gase. Having Alshon Jeffery back makes a huge difference for Chicago's offense. The Chargers have surrendered 24 or more points in every one of their games. 
San Diego has zero rushing touchdowns in its last seven games. Chicago hasn't yielded a rushing touchdown in its last five games. Philip Rivers is having another super season, but the Chargers are not balanced and minus their best wide receiver, Keenan Allen. 
Chicago won't have Matt Forte. But Jeremy Langford is an underrated backup and Chicago is far healthier than the Chargers.
San Diego will be without its left tackle and center. The Chargers also could be down a third starting offensive lineman as left guard Orlando Franklin is doubtful. Tight end Ladarius Green isn't likely to play either. 
The Chargers are beat up, too, defensively. Linebackers Manti Te'o and Denzel Perryman are out. Three other key defenders - lineman Corey Liuget, cornerback Jason Verrett and safety Eric Weddle - are questionable. 
Unlike the Bears, the Chargers have not had their bye yet. That comes next week. They are battered and worn down. It's too much to ask them to cover a point spread of more than a field goal. 

The winless 76ers are as bad as they have been during their last two tanking seasons. 
Philadelphia is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games and has lost to Chicago 11 of 12 times, including the last six. 
It's how the serious opposition takes the 76ers in determining the point spread. 
The Bulls have been up and down under first-year coach Fred Hoiberg. They are coming off an embarrassing 102-93 home loss to another bottom feeder, the Timberwolves, this past Saturday. That game went into overtime where the Bulls managed to not score a point during the extra session. Humiliating. 
Chicago doesn't play again until Friday when it hosts Charlotte. 
So I see the Bulls holding nothing back. This is an opportunity to regain their confidence and get Hoiberg a needed victory. The Bulls have far more talent than the 76ers and also a much stronger bench. Chicago is one of the deepest teams in the league, which is a key if this game should reach garbage time. That's always a strong possibility when the 76ers are involved. 

The records show the Lakers to be 1-4 and the Knicks 2-4. 

But there is a class difference here. The Knicks are a level higher than the Lakers and they are boosted by a favorable situation. 
New York is much improved from last season's disaster. The Lakers were a disaster, too, last season - and they remain a bottom five team.
Each of the Knicks' six games have been against a playoff team. Their losses were to the Bucks, Spurs, Cavaliers and Hawks. The Lakers, by contrast, haven't met a playoff opponent yet. Their games have come versus the Timberwolves, Kings, Mavericks, Nuggets and Nets. 
Not only are the Knicks the more battle tested foe, but they are in a very good spot. This is an early start time. It means for the Lakers their biological clocks have to adjust to playing a morning game by West Coast time. 
LA opened its five-game road trip with a 104-98 win against the hapless Nets on Friday night. The Lakers have failed to cover the last six times after winning in their previous game. They also are 0-4 ATS in their last four games at Madison Square Garden. 
New York lost on Friday at home to the Bucks. The Knicks are desperate to reward their home fans as they are 0-3 at home. They are 7-1-1 ATS following a defeat, though. The Knicks went 2-0 versus the Lakers last season - and are much better this year.
There also is the Phil Jackson factor. The former long-time Lakers head coach is the Knicks' president. The Knicks certainly don't want to lose at home to Jackson's old team. 


 

I've never been in the habit of laying points with UNLV, but circumstances make this a bargain spot to back the Rebels.

UNLV is much improved under first-year head coach Tony Sanchez. He's been the best Rebels coach in nearly 30 years. 
The Rebels are far better offensively with quarterback Blake Decker in the lineup. He returned last week from missing two games with a shoulder injury and helped the Rebels hang with Boise State for more than three quarters before their defense caved. 
Now the Rebels step way down in class to host a bone weary Hawaii team in disarray following a 58-7 loss to Air Force last week, the team's worst home loss in school history. Hawaii coach Norm Chow was fired right after that defeat. 
The Warriors return to the mainland for the fifth time in seven weeks. This also marks the Warriors' 10th consecutive week of playing. They have not had a bye all season. 
This would be brutal on any team, but it hits the Warriors even harder because they are undersized and lack depth. Their defense couldn't stand up to Air Force running the ball 83 times. Hawaii's defense was on the field for 45 minutes. Before that game, Hawaii faced five opponents in a row who ran the ball 50 or more times. 

While Hawaii is dealing with extreme fatigue issues and being in disarray with a coaching change this late in the season, UNLV is in revenge mode. The Rebels lost in controversial fashion to the Warriors last year on the road, 37-35, when they were penalized twice for excessive celebration following a go-ahead touchdown with 15 seconds left. The Rebels believed they were homered in that game by a slow moving clock official. Hawaii pulled out that victory with a touchdown pass on the final play.  
So don't expect the Rebels to be sympathetic to the Warriors and their sad plight. 

It's dangerous to step in against Golden State. But this is a clear flat spot for the Warriors.
Golden State is 5-0 beating all playoff teams. The Warriors' last two victories were grudge matches against the Grizzlies and Clippers. 
The Warriors play again on Saturday so they'll want to rest players and reduce starter's minutes. 
Denver is a young, up-and-down team. The Nuggets are capable, though. They proved that upsetting Houston on the road. The Nuggets are not a bottom feeder having defeated the Lakers by 11 points on the road. 
The Nuggets should play hard here after losing by 12 at home to Utah last night. Fatigue is not an issue this early in the season. 
This is an inflated line and needs to be taken advantage of. 

Toledo is unbeaten at 7-0. But I'm not convinced the Rockets are better than Northern Illinois. 
The Huskies very well could have the better skill position players and defense. They are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 road games. This includes a 7-1-1 ATS mark the past nine times they've been a road underdog.  
Northern Illinois quarterback Drew Hare has a 13-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 142 quarterback rating. Toledo quarterback Phillip Ely has a 15-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 128.9 passer rating. 
The Huskies' three losses came to Central Michigan by 10 even though they outgained Central Michigan by 41 yards, by seven on the road to Ohio State and by three on the road to Boston College. 
The Huskies also have defeated the Rockets during the past five meetings.