This is a stop-the-pain home game for Florida International, losers of four in a row. The timing is ripe for the Golden Panthers to do just that. Florida International catches North Texas fat and happy after the Mean Green posted a 70-64 road upset win against Florida Atlantic this past Thursday. That victory halted an 11-game losing streak for the Mean Green.  North Texas, though, is horrible on the road going 5-16-1 ATS during its last 22 away contests and has failed to cover the past five times following a rare victory. North Texas isn't used to winning, far less so on the road.  The Golden Panthers won't lack for motivation. They can just remember last year's game when they blew a 12-point lead with around six minutes left in a 77-75 road loss to the Mean Green during their previous meeting. 

Stephen Nover Saturday Free Pick

Northern Illinois plus 4 1/2 at Western Michigan

The combination of getting the better team with the superior defense and a bunch of points puts me on Northern Illinois.

Every NBA team is going to encounter a flat spot during the course of such a long season. It happened to the Celtics last night. They lost to the Kings, 108-92, despite Sacramento not having suspended DeMarcus Cousins. The Celtics committed 18 turnovers, shot 39.7 percent from the floor and only had four fast-break points.  Prior to that game, though, Boston had won seven straight games. The Celtics had reached triple-digits in 25 consecutive games.  I see Boston bouncing back strong in this matchup. Fatigue shouldn't factor since Boston last played on Sunday before losing to the Kings. The Celtics also have won five consecutive times when playing without rest, covering four of the five. The Celtics should be use to West Coast time now.  If they need extra motivation, the Celtics can point to Jan. 21. The Trail Blazers defeated the Celtics, 127-123 in overtime, on that date in Boston despite finishing their own four-game, six-day road trip back then.  The Trail Blazers are off a last-second one-point road victory against the Mavericks two days ago. That was a costly victory for Portland as it lost swingman and key reserve Evan Turner to a broken hand. The Trail Blazers don't have a strong bench, nor good big men to take advantage of Boston's rebounding weakness. Portland is 7-18-1 ATS following a victory.  The Celtics have covered 70 percent of their last 18 road contests. 

The last time the Clippers took the court was this past Saturday. They were pounded and embarrassed by the Warriors on the road on national television losing, 144-98. That was easily the Clippers' worst loss of the season. Now, after three full days to think about that humiliation, the Clippers finally are back in action playing the Suns in Phoenix. LA hosts the Warriors on Thursday and then takes off on a five-game road trip starting with Boston and Toronto. So there is no way the Clippers can look past the lowly Suns. Minus Chris Paul, the Clippers are far from an elite team. But the prideful Clippers have Blake Griffin back, a star center in DeAndre Jordan and excellent backcourt depth. That's enough to cover this spread range against the Suns, who have dropped four in a row allowing an average of 119.3 points during their losing streak.  Griffin is getting the rust off scoring 20 points in 23 minutes against the Warriors in his second game back from missing 18 games with a knee injury. Jordan leads the league in field goal percentage, is No. 2 in rebounding and ninth in blocks. Austin Rivers is having his best season joining J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford to give the Clippers a respectable backcourt even without Paul.  The Clippers certainly don't want to enter their Thursday rematch against the Warriors coming off a loss to the Suns, a team they are 2-0 against this season with the average victory margin being 14.5 points.  The Suns rank second-to-last in defense and usually are at their worst against Western Conference foes going 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games against them.  Wednesday Free Pick Nets plus 2 1/2 hosting Knicks  When you're the Brooklyn Nets, the goals are modest. Beating their cross-town rival and much more glamorous opponent, the Knicks, is a big deal for the Nets. The timing is ripe for Brooklyn to do just that.  Surprised by how short this line is? Shouldn't be. New York averages 106.1 points per game. Brooklyn averages 105.8 points and is the superior free throw shooting team. The Nets play hard, get good ball movement and often are unselfish. They just don't play any defense. So the major part of this handicap is a fade on the fading Knicks.  New York is at low ebb being a season-worst eight games under .500. The Knicks have key injuries - Derrick Rose is out with an ankle injury and Kristaps Porzingis is questionable after missing last night's loss to the Wizards due to a stomach virus - are racked with internal strife, including distracting daily Carmelo Anthony trade rumors that the New York tabloids play up big and the team carries a major fatigue rating.  It's no wonder the Knicks went 5-12 in January.  This marks the Knicks' third game in four days. They lost to Atlanta in four overtimes on Sunday and fell to Washington, 117-101, Tuesday night. The Nets are going to bring energy to this game. The Knicks need to dig deep to find any energy and necessary motivation to match Brooklyn's.  The Nets' roster is unimposing. But the Knicks' roster is mediocre at best not good enough to beat any opponent without playing at least above average. Injuries have robbed Rose of his one-time stardom, but the Knicks' starting backcourt without Rose is Brandon Jennings and Courtney Lee. Jennings has played 90:55 minutes the past three days, while Lee has logged 79:36 during this short time frame. They are going to have problems keeping up with the run-and-gun Nets guards.   The Knicks have lost 10 of 11 times when playing without rest going 4-7 ATS. They also have failed to cover the last six times when going against a foe with a below .400 winning percentage. This has been a home series, too, with the host covering the past six times.     

First off, I like the Raptors even though their leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan, is going to miss a third straight game. The Raptors play better defense without him.The Raptors have hung tough without their star losing 108-106 to the Spurs and 101-99 on the road to the Grizzlies. However, the Raptors are saddled in a season-high five-game losing streak. This is a stop-the-pain game for them being at home against the Bucks, who are sub .500 team and have lost six of their last seven games. The Bucks have given up an average of 112 points in their last seven games. Only three teams score more points per game than Toronto.  Milwaukee has failed to cover 11 of the past 15 times when going against an opponent with a winning home record. The Bucks are 0-2 this season, too, versus Toronto losing by six at home and by 22 at Toronto. 

I see this as a total kill spot for Cleveland.  The Cavaliers just lost as 9 1/2-point road favorite to New Orleans, 124-122, on Monday despite the Pelicans not having Anthony Davis. Following that loss, LeBron James ripped the team saying in part, " ... It's not about how many minutes I'm playing right now, or being fresh down the stretch. We've got to be good right now and we're not winning." I have to believe the Cavaliers are going to be super fired-up for this matchup. They are far superior to the lottery-bound, chemistry-challenged Kings.  So besides a huge talent edge and homecourt advantage, the Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated. They should have their full focus, too, not playing again until Friday when they host the lowly Nets. Cleveland is 19-4 at home and has a winning ATS mark at Quicken Loans Arena. The Cavaliers catch the Kings playing their fourth road game in six days. Sacramento is a bit fat and happy, too, having just upset the Pistons, 109-104, on Monday. Sacramento is 2-8 in its last 10 games with its two victories during this span coming versus the Pistons.  The Kings are 0-4 ATS following a win and 4-9 ATS following a spread cover. They have lost and failed to cover during their last four games against the Cavaliers. 

Cal Irvine easily is the best team in the Big West Conference right now. Now while this proclamation may bring yawns with a who cares attitude, the conference is on the betting board and this matchup provides excellent line value. I like the Anteaters to win by double-digits here. They are 6-0 ATS the past six times in a spread range of laying up to 6 1/2 points. 

San Diego State is healthy and too strong defensively for a down UNLV team.

The Aztecs beat the Rebels by 15 at UNLV last season and then clobbered the Rebels, 92-56, in their final meeting. The Rebels could manage to average only 54 points versus the Aztecs last year and are worse this season. 

The Rebels are shooting only 36 percent from the field in their last five games. By contrast, opponents are hitting 48 percent of their field goals during this span. 

San Diego State has a front court edge with big man Malik Pope. Put it all together and this is a cheap price to lay with a much superior foe. 

I believe the Chiefs are bogus and will get exposed here. 

Steelers minus 10 hosting Dolphins

The Celtics escaped with just a one-point win when these teams last met. The 76ers didn't have Joel Embiid in that game either. The Celtics have been nothing special at home going 9-6 SU and 6-9 against the spread. 

It's a plus if Embiid plays here, but I like the 76ers even without him. 

Philly has covered five of its last seven road games. The Celtics are 4-9 ATS the past 13 times playing a foe with a winning percentage below .400. Boston hosts New Orleans on Saturday so the backdoor could be open for the 76ers if the game should get out of hand, which I doubt happens. 

The 76ers actually have a winning spread and are playing well with two straight victories. Only twice in their last 14 games have the 76ers lost by more than 11 points. 

The Grizzlies are coming off their best December ever while the Lakers are 2-15 in their last 17 games. Marc Gasol may not play because of a sore ankle, but Mike Conley is back in the lineup. 

 The well coached Grizzlies have beaten the Lakers 10 of the last 11 times. Memphis plays at the Clippers on Wednesday and at the Warriors on Friday so it can't afford to take a loss here.  Memphis also has covered in 11 of its last 13 Western Conference games.  The Grizzlies rank No. 2 defensively. They give up 13 fewer points per game than the Lakers. 
 

Minnesota lacks the quarterback, pass defense and strength of schedule to stay within single digits of Washington State.  Washington State's Luke Falk is one of the top quarterbacks in the country. He's completed 71 percent of his passes for 4,204 yards with a 37-to-10 touchdown to interception ratio. The Cougars also have a decent ground attack and their best defense in the five years Mike Leach has been their coach.  Falk has a versatile group of receivers with 10 difference players catching at least one touchdown pass. The Cougars rank No. 2 in passing yards per game.  Minnesota ranks 70th in pass defense. The Gophers also had the second-worst pass defense in the Big Ten, a conference not known for their quarterbacks. Making matters worse for the Gophers is that several of their defensive backs, including two starters, are among 10 players suspended for the game.  The Gophers missed practices by threatening to boycott the game in protest of the suspensions, which stemmed from an incident in an off-campus apartment back in early September. The threaten boycott never materialized. The Gophers don't have the speed nor talent to defend against Washington State's high-powered offense. Minnesota hasn't faced this type of fast-tempo style playing a weak schedule being in the Big Ten.  The Big Ten has been terrible against the spread in bowl play going 32-45 ATS, including 2-5 ATS last season and 0-1 ATS this season with Maryland losing straight-up as a short favorite against Boston College. Minnesota's weak offense can't keep up with Washington State. Mitch Leidner threw just seven touchdown passes and had 12 interceptions. He's one of the weaker quarterbacks in the Big Ten.  

The marketplace has bet this game up - and the move is right. Both teams are strong offensively, but Old Dominion has the superior defense and an edge in this setting.

Knowing they weren't going to beat the Clippers on the road last night, the Pelicans did the smart thing. They rested big man Anthony Davis. Davis should be in for a monster performance against the guard-oriented Suns. New Orleans isn't going to lack for motivation not only looking to put a halt to a losing skid but gain revenge for a 112-111 home overtime loss suffered to Phoenix last month. That may have been the Pelicans' toughest defeat of the season.  While New Orleans is playing without rest, the Suns are in action for the fourth time in six days. Phoenix is 3-6 at home and has failed to cover four of its past five games at home. The Suns have been favored four times this season. Not only have they failed to cover each time, but they were blown out in each instance losing to the Kings by 19 points, Nets by 18, 76ers by 15 and Nuggets by six.  

The Bulls are proven at home. The Trail Blazers have proven to struggle on the road. 
Chicago has covered five of its seven home games this season and seven of its last nine going back to last season. The Bulls knocked off the Cavaliers, 111-105, at home this past Friday. They then suffered a letdown when they played Saturday in Dallas losing 107-82. Dwayne Wade was rested in that game.
The Bulls and Wade should be ready now. If they lose this game they could be looking at a four-game losing streak as they play at the Pistons on Tuesday and host San Antonio Thursday. Chicago has covered the past five times following a straight-up loss. 
Portland is 3-6 SU and ATS in its last nine away matchups. The Trail Blazers' only road victories during this span came against the Mavericks, Nets and Grizzlies. Portland is 0-6 ATS versus above .500 opponents.
The teams played on Nov. 15 and the Bulls slammed the Trail Blazers, 113-88, in Portland. 

Expect the Seahawks to take no prisoners here in a double revenge spot against the Panthers, who beat them in the regular season and playoffs last season. 
The Seahawks are at their finest during the home stretch going 18-4 SU, 16-6 ATS from November through January during the regular season. 
Seattle has the best outdoor home advantage in football and the Seahawks fans will be rocking here in this nationally televised matchup. The Seahawks have gotten healthier while the Panthers are demoralized and extremely banged-up.
Cam Newton is having a down season. The Panthers haven't been able to protect him giving up 32 sacks. Carolina is down to its third-string center. Seattle has star safety Earl Thomas back and elite pass rusher Michael Bennett should be back, too. 
Russell Wilson is finally healthy. That makes him a dual threat. He'll take advantage of a Carolina defense missing its leading tackler and emotional leader, Luke Kuechly, top pass rusher Mario Addison, who leads the team with nine sacks, and free safety Kurt Coleman. All three are injured. 

The host has won all three Mountain West Conference title games. Look for Wyoming to contribute to that trend. 
Wyoming averages nine more points per game than San Diego State and the Aztecs' defense has vanished the last two weeks. 
Just two weeks ago, Wyoming nipped San Diego State, 34-33, in Laramie as 10-point 'dogs. The score shouldn't have been that close, but San Diego State returned two kickoffs for touchdowns and scored another touchdown on a Hail Mary pass. Wyoming outgained San Diego State by 97 yards and had 12 more first downs. Now the Aztecs have to return to Laramie where the temperature forecast is for the teens-to-low 20's. Not exactly San Diego beach weather. 
Wyoming has proven itself at home beating Northern Illinois, Air Force, Boise State along with San Diego State. The Cowboys were at least a touchdown 'dog in all of those games. 
After losing to Wyoming, San Diego State got buried by Colorado State, 63-31, at home last week. The Rams picked up 507 yards in that game. 
The Aztecs heavily rely on running back Donnell Pumphrey. But he's gotten worn down having carried the ball 305 times this season. Pumphrey hasn't run for more than 76 yards in each of the last two games. 
Wyoming has its own outstanding runner, Brian Hill, plus playmaking deep threat Tanner Gentry and quarterback Josh Allen. 

Colorado's had a great season, but now the Buffaloes meet their Waterloo here in the Pac-12 title game.
Washington has the conference's top defense yielding just 17.8 points per game, a big edge in speed and skill position players with Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year quarterback Jake Browning and a special teams advantage in both returns and place-kicking. 
The Huskies also have big-game experience, which Colorado lacks. Add this all up and the Huskies win by double-digits. 
Washington is the fresher team off consecutive blowout victories against Arizona State and Washington State. Colorado is off a tough physical 27-22 home win against Utah last week. The week before the Buffaloes came from trailing late in the third quarter to win against Washington State, 38-24. 
The Huskies have won their bowl game in three of the past four years. Their coach, Chris Peterson, has a history of big game having coached at Boise State. 
Colorado hasn't been on the national stage in years. The Buffaloes' last bowl appearance was nine years ago. Their coach, Mike MacIntyre, did a great job this season but he doesn't have Peterson's bowl and big game resume. 
Style points matter here, too, for the Huskies. They want a college football playoff berth so a big spread win would help that cause. The Huskies already have beaten nine opponents by at least 24 points. 

Sacramento State plays in the Big Sky, a very weak conference. The Hornets haven't covered a game all season. They're likely to get blown out here against a superior Pacific team that is looking to make a strong statement at home under first year head coach Damon Stoudamire. 
Pacific has played the stronger competition and are coming off a road loss to Nevada. This sets up as a kill spot for the Tigers.
Sacramento State coach Brian Katz was quoted as saying this about the matchup: "We haven't played great yet. We think we will, but we haven't at this point. We know Pacific is really good, but I like our group in the long term. By league time, I think we'll be very competitive."
That sure doesn't sound like a coach confident of his team right now. 

Dallas is on a tremendous roll, but that stops here. The Cowboys aren't that strong to be laying this number on the road against this classy of a defense and against this strong of a home field, which ranks among the best in football. 
Stefon Diggs is expected to play, which is huge for the Vikings. Sam Bradford's short passing game will be a lot more effective at home and with Diggs in the lineup. The Cowboys do not have a strong secondary. Their defense relies on their offense to play ball control. 
The Vikings give up the second-fewest points and third-fewest yards. The short time frame also hurts the visiting Cowboys. 

I want San Antonio going for me after the Spurs played their worst game of the season in a 95-83 home loss to the lowly Magic Tuesday night. That loss snapped a nine-game San Antonio win streak and can't make Gregg Popovich too happy. Neither can the fact that the Spurs had their lowest-scoring game of the season and committed a season-high 19 turnovers. 

I have to believe the Spurs are going to be highly motivated for this matchup. Dallas is the perfect patsy, too, with the worst record in the NBA at 3-13. The Mavericks' only victories have come against the Pelicans, Bucks and Lakers. None of those teams have a winning record. 
There is zero chance of the Spurs taking the Mavericks lightly either since Dallas hung with them in a 96-91 road loss on Nov. 21. The Mavericks missed a jumper with 15 seconds left in that game that would have given them the lead.  
The Spurs shouldn't feel fatigued since before last night they had been idle for two days. The Spurs are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games while the Mavericks have failed to cover in seven of their last nine home games and are 0-8 ATS the past eight times at home when hosting an opponent with a winning road mark. 
The Mavericks remain without injured Dirk Nowitzki. They are thin at point guard due to injuries and rank last in all of the major offensive categories - scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point shooting. San Antonio ranks sixth in fewest points allowed. 
Dallas plays at Charlotte on Thursday. The Mavericks stand a better chance of beating that opponent than San Antonio. So the Mavericks may play their bench longer if they fall too far behind in an effort to conserve energy for Thursday. 

Talent-wise the Packers are better than the Eagles. Philadelphia is tough at home, but Green Bay is way overdue to play better. I see that occurring here as the Packers are improved on offense and their defense is getting key players back. Clay Matthews played last week and cornerback Damarious Randall and linebacker Jake Ryan are expected back Monday. 
The Packers have outstanding wide receiver depth. Cornerback is a major weakness for the Eagles. One player Aaron Rodgers will look to target is seventh-round rookie draft choice Jalen Mills. Rodgers has the receiving depth to go after Mills with Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb. It's a plus for Green Bay's offense that tight end Jared Cook is back. James Starks provides enough of a running threat for the Eagles to respect play-action. 
Carson Wentz lacks the playmakers Green Bay has. He's inconsistent as most rookies are and won't be able to match Rodgers. The Eagles have the worst receivers in the league and their best running back, Ryan Mathews, is out. 
Green Bay's defense has been torched the past few weeks. But the Packers' last four games have been against very strong offenses - Redskins, Titans, Colts and Falcons. All of those teams have above average quarterbacks. The Eagles don't. 
Much is made of Green Bay not playing well, but the Eagles are just 1-3 in their last four games. This is the right time now to jump on the Packers. 

The answer is yes I can trust the Titans on the road - against this battered foe whose season is shot.
Tennessee is in must-win mode at 5-6. Marcus Mariota showed potential as a rookie last season and he has burst out into star status during the last seven weeks throwing 19 touchdown passes with just three interceptions during this span. The Titans are averaging 31 points during this time frame. 
The Titans aren't one-dimensional offensively. DeMarco Murray still is an elite running back. He has five 100-yard rushing games this season. 
Injuries have turned the Bears from a slightly-below .500 type team into a bottom feeder ranking among the five worst teams in the NFL. 
Chicago may shut down Jay Cutler, who has no chance of sparking an offense composed of backup receivers and backup offensive linemen. Alshon Jeffery and Zach Miller are Cutler's two top targets. Jeffery is suspended and Miller is likely done for the year after suffering a broken foot this past Sunday. The Bears have multiple offensive line injuries, too, along with key defensive players out or suspended. 
About the only strength Chicago had was its run defense, but that is now a weakness, too, with nose tackle Eddie Goldman missing last week. Mariota and Murray can light up this defense. 
Dick LeBeau has improved Tennessee's defense. The Titans now have a respectable pass rush. Their secondary is vulnerable, but the Bears lack the necessary passing attack to take advantage. 
Chicago's home field advantage is just about nil. The Bears have dropped 12 of their last 15 at Solider Field going 5-10 ATS in those games. 

The numbers are 34, 21, 24, 12, 27 1/2, and 16 1/2. Those are the spreads Oregon has been favored against Oregon State during the last six years. Oregon has won all of those games against arch-rival Oregon State with only one of the victories being by less than 10 points. 
Yes, Oregon fell off a cliff this season, their worst in two decades. But the Ducks still hold a major talent gap, are off a victory that shows they still can be dangerous are treating this matchup as their Super Bowl. 
I want all that going for me and this short spread is a path to involvement. 
Oregon State is having another crummy year at 3-8. That's to be expected. The Beavers are always a lower tier Pac-12 team. What's shocking is Oregon falling to 4-7. The Ducks, though, are coming off a 30-28 upset win of then-11th ranked Utah. 
That victory can't salvage a lost season for the Ducks, but it does give them confidence going into this traditional in-state rivalry matchup. 
Oregon's offense remains potent behind Justin Herbert. It's a big step down in defensive class that Oregon is used to seeing after facing Utah, Southern Cal and Stanford during its last three games. 
The road team has dominated this series going 9-1-1 ATS the past 11 times. Oregon is 5-0 ATS the past five times playing at Oregon State. 

My interest always is raised when I see the better team getting points. That's the case in this matchup. It's a series the Hawks have dominated beating the Jazz nine of the past 10 times. 
Both teams halted losing skids with big victories on Wednesday. The Jazz have back point guard George Hill, but aren't likely to have big man Derrick Favors. 
The Hawks average eight more points per game than the Jazz. Utah is the stingiest defensive team in the league, but the Hawks have a top-seven defense. Atlanta gets excellent ball movement ranking third in assists per game and in assists on made baskets percentage. 
A rejuvenated Dwight Howard provides the Hawks with the necessary inside presence to counter the physical Jazz. Howard ranks in the top-five in the NBA in rebounds, field goal percentage and is eighth in blocks. 
It's a huge NBA menu today with every team in action. This game has the second-lowest total. Points will be at a premium so getting this many is big. 

Only once this season has Air Force been an underdog. That was as a one-point road 'dog to Army, a game the Falcons won, 31-12, three weeks ago.
Now the Falcons are more than a touchdown 'dog to Boise State. No, I'm not buying that. Air Force has defeated the Broncos each of the past two years winning 37-30 in Boise last season and 28-14 at home in 2014. 
Air Force is the fourth-leading rushing team in the country. The Falcons' offense has gotten better with the switch to sophomore quarterback Arion Worthman. Air Force has won four in a row averaging 38 points during this span. 
Boise State has failed to cover eight of 11 games. They are going to have problems with Air Force's triple-option attack especially down two injured starting linebackers. 

Minnesota owned the best defense in the NFL during the first five weeks holding opponents to 12.6 points per game in opening 5-0. 
The Vikings then got cold losing four in a row averaging 14 points a game during this span. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner bailed early this month and there were offensive line injuries. One of the Vikings' defeats during this time frame came to the Lions, 22-16, in overtime. The Vikings were playing their worst ball during this time yet the Lions were going to lose if not for a 58-yard field goal by Matt Prater at the end of regulation that forced overtime. 
Minnesota is playing better now having just defeated the Cardinals, 30-24, at home. The disadvantage of playing on the road on Thursday is mitigated here by the short travel and the Vikings familiarity with the Lions, who they played less than three weeks ago. 
Neither team can run the ball. Matthew Stafford was hot early in the season, but has cooled off considerably. He has not passed for more than 278 yards during his last seven games. The Lions could manage only one touchdown on offense versus the lowly Jaguars at home last Sunday. Stafford is averaging one touchdown pass per game in his last four games. That's not impressive in today's pass happy, offensive-skewed NFL. 
The Vikings hold a strong defensive and coaching edge here. Mike Zimmer is a defensive guru and he knows how to defend Stafford. The Lions are averaging 16.8 points in regulation in five games against the Zimmer-coached Vikings. Not once have the Lions been able to reach 20 points against Minnesota in regulation during the Zimmer era. 
The Vikings are used now to playing indoors on turf. Their offense showed signs of improvement last week more comfortable now that new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur has had a few weeks to get acclimated. 

The Spurs have won six in a row, but Gregg Popovich isn't happy calling out his players after they barely beat injury-racked Dallas, 96-91, two nights ago. 
The Spurs rested LaMarcus Aldridge in that game. Tony Parker didn't play either. 
Charlotte isn't playing well losing four of its past six and may be without big man Cody Zeller, who is better than perceived. He's been out with a shoulder injury. 

It's a mistake for any team to lay this many points to Toronto. The Raptors did play last night losing in controversial fashion to the Kings in Sacramento. They are in a bitter mood following that loss when the referees waved off a game-tying shot by Terrence Ross at the buzzer. This is just a short trip from Sacramento to LA for the Raptors. 
Toronto is 9-1-1 ATS the past 11 times when playing without rest. The Raptors swept the Clippers last season and have covered the past four times in the series. 
Before losing to the Kings, the Raptors had posted road victories against the Thunder and Hornets. They then beat the Knicks at home followed by a four-point road loss to the Cavaliers then a six-point loss to the Warriors and a road win against the improved Nuggets. 
The Clippers aren't better than the Cavaliers or Warriors yet they are laying more points to the Raptors than those teams did. The Clippers carry their own high fatigue rating, too, as this marks their seventh game in 11 days and third in four days. Following this matchup, the Clippers take off an 11-game road trip so their focus could be off. 
The Clippers have star power, but so do the Raptors. Their stars - DeMar Rozan, Kyle Lowry and Jonas Valanciunas - just don't draw the publicity that the Clippers' stars do because they aren't in a major U.S. media market. 

I consider the Patriots to be the team to beat in the Super Bowl. At the other end, I consider the 49ers right there with the Browns as the worst team in the NFL. 
You can talk that this is a long trip for the Patriots and they won't have injured Rob Gronkowski. But the Patriots still should bury this opponent especially given the circumstances.
New England just lost at home to Seattle. That doesn't sit well with Bill Belichick. The Patriots have covered 74 percent of the time following a defeat during the past 43 instances. 
Since Week 1, the 49ers have gone 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS. Their defense has fallen apart due to their best players getting hurt and fatigue from their offense playing at such a fast-tempo. In their last eight games, the 49ers are giving up an average of 35 points and 460 yards.
The Patriots are averaging 32 points per contest since Tom Brady came back from suspension five games ago. Brady has the highest passer rating in the league at 125.5 with a 12-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. LeGarrette Blount has put up the most touchdowns of any non-quarterback. Gronkowski is the best tight end in football. But Martellius Bennett is a top-10 talent. 
San Francisco's offense has improved since Colin Kaepernick took over from Blaine Gabbert. But it remains limited and well below average. The 49ers are not going to be able to keep up with a motivated and mad Patriots squad that has an elite offense. 

Back in the 1990's, I covered the UNLV football team and have retained several key sources. It's a team I follow closely living n Las Vegas. I can tell you first-hand this Rebel team is different than what their previous teams from the past 30 years have been. Tony Sanchez is UNLV's best football coach since Harvey Hyde back in the early 1980's. Another big difference is these Rebels can be counted on for a full effort and can now be trusted on the road. That wasn't the case before Sanchez took over. The Rebels are about two-to-three star players away from being a serious conference contender, but they are vastly improved both talent-wise and mentally under Sanchez.
UNLV hasn't lost by more than 23 points in any game this season and it has played some decent competition, including UCLA, Central Michigan, San Diego State and Colorado State. This is a rare nationally televised game (ESPN2) for the Rebels. Sanchez is an excellent recruiter and needs his team to be competitive to help boost recruiting. 

If the Rebels were to spring the upset they would keep alive their bowl chances. UNLV has proven itself when stepping up. The Rebels just defeated Wyoming, 69-66, in triple overtime racking up 653 yards of total offense, including 401 rushing yards. The Rebels rank 14th in the nation in rushing and found the right quarterback as Kurt Palandech accounted for four touchdowns while throwing for 252 yards and running for another 157 against Wyoming in his first start. 
Wyoming beat Boise State just three weeks ago. The Broncos can be run on. San Jose State proved that rushing for 217 yards against them. So did New Mexico, which piled up 382 yards on the ground.
Boise State is explosive but not the powerhouse of previous seasons. The Broncos often are overpriced especially when playing at home. That's the case again here. The Broncos have failed to cover their last eight home games. They are 7-22 ATS at home the past 29 times facing opponents with a losing road record. Boise State played at Hawaii last week and have a bigger game on deck next week playing at Air Force. That's the Broncos revenge game of the year as Air Force beat them in Boise last season.   

The Broncos are going to need to force turnovers to cover a four-touchdown spread against this underrated opponent. Yet Boise State only has seven takeaways on the season. Just two teams in the entire FBS - which is composed of 128 teams - have fewer takeaways. 

Could Connecticut actually open the season 0-3? Nope. I see a focused Huskies squad shooting much better and having no problem with Loyola Marymount, an average at best team from the West Coast Conference.  

The Huskies were rated 16th in the nation entering the season, but are 0-2 for the first time since 1968 with embarrassing home losses to Wagner and Northeastern this past Monday. Obviously the Huskies have under performed. Taking to the road could be good for the Huskies in this instance. Certainly a strong, motivated effort should be forthcoming here. That should be enough as there is quite a talent gap.
"I'm very positive we can get out of this," Connecticut coach Kevin Ollie was quoted as saying. "I didn't want to be in this position, but I've been here before. I believe in myself, and I believe in this team."
Mike Dunlap is in his third season as head man at Loyola Marymount. The Lions went 8-23 in his first season and 14-17 last year. They should be better this season, but certainly not in Connecticut's class. The Lions are 1-1 this season with a win against Wagner and a loss to Nevada-Reno. 
Connecticut should have its share of fans at the game. Ollie is from the Los Angeles area and the Lions are 10-25-1 ATS in their last 36 home games. 

The Warriors have won four in a row against the Raptors and the spot is ripe for them to continue that winning streak.
After a slow start and transition period to newcomer superstar Kevin Durant, the Warriors have picked up the pace. They have won four consecutive games averaging 122.5 points during this span. 
Golden State is well rested and prepared. The Warriors last played Sunday at home and have been in Canada awaiting the Raptors. Toronto had to fly in from Cleveland in the wee hours of the morning following a tough 121-117 physically draining loss to the Cavaliers last night.
Only two teams play at a faster pace than Golden State. The Warriors are hot and certainly have the scorers to take advantage of a tired Raptors squad.  

Cal State Bakersfield is underrated and getting too many points just based on playing a Pac-12 opponent. The Roadrunners are a tough, physical defensive team. They won the WAC Tournament and made the NCAA Tournament last year giving Oklahoma problems in the first round. 
Bakersfield catches Arizona a bit fat and happy after the Wildcats knocked off then ninth-ranked Michigan State, 65-63, in Hawaii on a layup with 1.3 seconds left to open its season. The Wildcats didn't have Allonzo Trier, their top scorer from a year ago, in that game and he's not expected to play in this matchup.
The Roadrunners have covered 14 of their last 16 games, including their past seven road games. 

Boston College is an opponent Florida State has problems matching up against. The Eagles have trouble with mobile quarterbacks such as Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson. Florida State doesn't present that. Seminoles freshman quarterback Deondre Francois has rushed for under 90 yards on the season. 
The Eagles have held Florida State's offense to an average of 13 points during the past two years. The Seminoles offense could manage just seven points and 217 yards in last year's game winning 14-0 with one of their touchdowns coming on a defensive fumble return. Florida State barely nipped Boston College, 20-17, two seasons ago at home as 16 1/2-point underdogs. 
Boston College's strength is a run defense that ranks eighth in the nation and second in the ACC. Florida State heavily relies on the running of Dalvin Cook. Boston College can contain him. So it's going to be difficult for the Seminoles to cover by a margin of three touchdowns.
Florida State has laid more than six points three times in its last five games, failing to cover each time.  
Boston College upset North Carolina State as a 16-point road 'dog two weeks ago. The Eagles then fell flat and had problems containing Heisman hopeful Jackson and Louisville last week losing by an embarrassing, 52-7. 
Look for Steve Addazio to have his Eagles motivated for this stand-alone Friday nationally televised (ESPN2) game. Boston College is 15-5-1 ATS the past 21 times following a non-cover. 

Rarely, if ever, am I going to recommend playing the Browns this season. Cleveland's talent level isn't better than expansion level and its priority this season is playing for the future not necessarily winning games.
However, this is that rare spot where the Browns are worth backing. 
Baltimore is struggling mightily on offense. The change in offensive coordinators from Marc Trestman to Marty Mornhinweg three games ago hasn't helped. Joe Flacco is having one of his worst seasons with a 76 passer rating, the Ravens' ground game has been ineffective and their offensive line has been banged-up and isn't playing well either. There haven numerous mistakes and penalties. 
The Ravens are playing on a short week after just beating their biggest division rival, Pittsburgh, this past Sunday due in part to a rusty Ben Roethlisberger. The Ravens could manage only 274 yards against a Steelers defense that ranked 27th in total yards entering the matchup. If you discount Mike Wallace's 95-yard touchdown catch, which came on a slant patter where Wallace took advantage of a missed tackle, the Ravens averaged less than three yards per play versus the Steelers. 
The Ravens have been outgained their last five games. Not one of Baltimore's games this season have been decided by more than eight points. 
The Browns are playing for next year, but they sure don't want to go winless. Their defense is better now with Jamie Collins than what it was in Week 2 when they lost to the Ravens, 25-20. The Browns led 20-0 in that game. They won't lack for motivation here and their familiarity with Baltimore is a key playing on Thursday. The Browns beat the Ravens, 33-30, at Baltimore last season. 

The Rockets are playing in their fifth straight road game and just beat Washington last night. The Spurs haven't played in four days. I'd rather have Gregg Popovich than any other coach with extra prep time. The Spurs have used this time to get healthier. 
Houston has played a lightweight schedule. The Rockets lack the defense to keep this game under double-digits. San Antonio has won the last three meetings against the Rockets by an average of close to 16 points per game. 

Count me among those not impressed by Buffalo. I think the Bills' coaching is below par, their passing game is weak and the defense not nearly as good as it was two years ago when Jim Schwartz was the defensive coordinator and before Rex Ryan came on board. 
Seattle has a couple of defensive injuries with Kam Chancellor and Michael Bennett out. The Seahawks still are very strong defensively. Buffalo could be missing two of its key offensive players if LeSean McCoy and left tackle Cody Glenn can't play due to injuries. The Bills actually would be doing the wise thing by holding out McCoy giving his sore hamstring another two weeks of rest since the team has a bye following this game.
Injuries have limited Russell Wilson into being merely a glorified game manager. But Wilson is healthy now restoring his dangerous dual threat capability. I can see a big game coming from him. The Bills aren't likely to have run-stuffer Marcell Dareus. So the Seahawks should be able to run, which makes Wilson even more effective.
The Bills are making a cross country journey into the toughest outdoor venue in the NFL. Since 2013, the Seahawks have won 28 of 32 home games. 

The Ducks have just dominated the Flames in Anaheim beating them a mind-boggling 23 times in a row and 28 of the past 29. The Ducks defeated the Flames at home last season by five, three and two goals.  
Calgary ranks second-to-last in penalty killing and third-from-the-bottom in power play percentage. The Flames average 2.6 goals per game while giving up 3.5. Their best offensive player, Johnny Gaudreau, has a minus 11 ratio and Brian Elliott may be the most disappointing goalie in the league. 
The Flames carry a heavy fatigue ranking, too, playing in their fourth road game in six nights. The Flames' weariness showed in their last game, a 5-0 loss to the Kings. This is Calgary's third game in four nights. 
The Ducks last played on Friday and had an easy 5-1 win against Arizona. The Ducks go on the road for three games following this matchup so they should be focused. 

Love the Chargers as 'dogs, hate them as favorites where they are 1-5 ATS the past six times in that role losing straight-up in four of those games. 
Tennessee just may be the best team in the AFC South Division. Now perhaps that's faint praise, but Tennessee is vastly improved in all areas. 
Backed by a resurgent DeMarco Murray and what now has become a decent offensive line, Marcus Mariota has thrown multiple touchdown passes during the last four weeks. The Titans have scored 26 or more points in each of their last four games. Consequently, San Diego gives up 26.5 points a game to rank 24th in scoring defense. The Chargers also are 24th in pass defense.
Philip Rivers bravely soldiers on as the Chargers are one of the more banged-up teams in the league with a cluster injury problem at linebacker, down their best cornerback and with multiple receiver injuries. Rivers already has been playing minus his best receiver, Keenan Allen, and dependable third-down back Danny Woodhead. 
Dick LeBeau has helped coach up the Titans defense, which should get cornerback Perrish Cox back this week. The Titans' confidence is high after dismantling the Jaguars. They've also had extra time since that victory came last Thursday. 
This isn't a great spot for the Chargers, who have yet to have their bye. The Chargers lost to Oakland on the road in a division game four weeks ago. Then the Chargers upset Denver at home on national television in another division game. That was followed by an upset overtime road win against the Falcons and then last week the Chargers played another AFC West game losing a tough one to the Broncos in a huge matchup. 

Alabama won't finish the season unbeaten. How's that? Because the Crimson Tide are going to lose here in this toughest of tough road settings. Just in case, taking more than a touchdown with LSU is a tremendous cushion. 
Now I certainly respect Alabama. The handicap is based on LSU rather than negativity toward the Crimson Tide although losing defensive back/return Eddie Jackson for the season is a big blow for them. 
I like the way Ed Orgeron has turned around the Tigers. Talent was never the problem for LSU. Coaching was. Now that Les Miles is gone that talent is bubbling to the surface. The Tigers have outgained their past three opponents by an average of 259 yards a game. 
Even suffering with Miles' coaching, the Tigers could be unbeaten. They lost by two to the Badgers playing in Wisconsin and fell by five at Auburn when a last-second game-winning touchdown pass was nullified because the officials ruled time had run out.
Alabama is not going to hold a talent edge here. The situation greatly favors LSU. The Tigers have had two weeks to rest and prepare because of Hurricane Andrew forcing postponement of their game against Florida and having a bye. The Tigers have a top-notch defensive coordinator in Dave Aranda, who was Wisconsin's defensive coordinator until coming to LSU. As a native of Wisconsin, I can tell you the Badgers hated to lose Aranda. 
Alabama hasn't faced this caliber of defense all season. This is a night game, which makes it even rougher when playing at LSU. The Tigers will be treating this as their national championship game. LSU has arguably the best running back in the country, Leonard Fournette. He's been slowed by an ankle injury. But Fournette rushed for 284 yards on only 16 carries against Mississippi during LSU's last game two weeks ago. He'll be 100 percent here.
Mississippi is the one common opponent these two teams share. LSU defeated the Rebels by 17 points at home outgaining them by 191 yards. Alabama played the Rebels on the road and barely escaped winning, 48-43, aided by an 85-yard punt return touchdown by Jackson. The Crimson Tide were outgained by 35 yards in the contest.   

Revenge and Gregg Popovich. That says it all here. I want the Spurs going for me and I'll lay a short road price to get them after Utah dealt San Antonio a 106-91 loss this past Tuesday at San Antonio.
The Spurs haven't played since. They've had three days to stew about that loss and prepare for this short revenge spot. 
The Jazz are playing well.They played a perfect game against the Spurs while San Antonio was flat. I don't see that combination coming up here. The Jazz aren't a strong perimeter team, especially with top scorer Gordon Hayward out. Yet they knocked down 15 3-pointers against San Antonio. 
The line could be higher but Tony Parker won't play for San Antonio. Parker is vastly overrated, though, at this late stage of his career. Parker is in his 16th season and is averaging less than six points a game while hitting only 33 percent of his shot. 
Utah hasn't been good when stepping up in class failing to cover 12 of the last 15 times versus above .500 opponents.

Not surprisingly it is talking a while for the Warriors to get in sync with newcomer Kevin Durant on board. Golden State is 0-3 ATS beating the Pelicans by eight and Suns by six each on the road in its last two games. 
If the Warriors play as poorly as they did against those two lottery teams, they'll lose straight-up to the revenge-minded Trail Blazers. 
Portland has nearly everyone back from last year's 44-win total. The Trail Blazers played the Warriors tough in the playoffs last season covering two of the five games during the series and losing another one in overtime although failing to cover. Portland had a 12-point third quarter lead in that game. 
Golden State is nowhere near reaching its peak yet so it's a ripe time to draw the Warriors. Damion Lillard is outplaying Stephen Curry so far while stating his case as a legitimate MVP candidate. The Warriors are making only 26.7 percent of their 3-pointers while the Trail Blazers ranked sixth connecting on 39.1 percent of their 3-pointers. Portland also is averaging two more points per game than Golden State. 

This is the last stop on the Warriors' three game road trip. They host Oklahoma City on Thursday, which is a much bigger game for Durant going against his former team.

The Vikings are vastly superior to the Bears, a true Super Bowl contender. Chicago is one of the five worst teams in the NFL. 
This is a Monday night home game for the Bears. But they are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games. People in Illinois are excited about the Cubs in the World Series not the Bears. The Vikings are going to have their share of fans for this game so the Bears have a limited home field advantage.
Minnesota is a point spread machine under Mike Zimmer covering 19 of the last 23 times. The Vikings are off an upset loss to the Eagles. Minnesota didn't play well in that game perhaps because it came following its bye week. Look for Zimmer to have the Vikings fully ready and motivated for this matchup. 
The Vikings entered this week ranked No. 1 defensively in fewest yards and points allowed. The Bears have Jay Cutler back at quarterback. That's not necessarily a plus for them. Cutler is a lame duck who the Bears don't want to keep after this season. Cutler's teammates rarely respond well  to him. 
Chicago gives an effort defensively. The Bears just have too many injuries, though, and not enough talent. They rank among the bottom 12 in points surrendered. 
This is a mismatch not fully reflected in the point spread. 

It's rare to get Bill Belichick and his Patriots in a same season revenge game. But that's the case here as the Bills shut out the Patriots, 16-0, in Week 4. New England was forced to play third-string rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett in that game. 
Now Tom Brady is back. The Patriots are going to be extremely fired-up for this game. They had never been shut out at home in the 15-year history of Gillette Stadium before that first Buffalo game. 
Brady has numerous offensive weapons. LeGarrette Blount is having a big year, too, providing the Patriots with a needed power back. 
The situation is quite different than it was four weeks ago when Brady still was under suspension and the Bills had a healthy LeSean McCoy. Not only is McCoy hobbled by a hamstring injury, but the Bills also are without their best receiver, Sammy Watkins. Tyrod Taylor is an excellent running quarterback, but he's not a strong downfield passer. Belichick will be able to defend Buffalo's one dimensional attack. Taylor needs weapons to succeed. He doesn't have them. 
The Bills' 4-3 record is deceiving. Besides taking advantage of New England's dire quarterback problems, they also beat the Rams and 49ers. Miami exposed Buffalo this past Sunday outgaining the Bills by 187 yards and holding a 14-minute time possession edge. 
The Bills don't figure to hang around based on turnovers either as New England quarterbacks haven't thrown an interception all season.
Before losing to the Bills, the Patriots had defeated Buffalo 30 of the past 32 times. The Patriots have rolled past the Bills by a touchdown or more in 21 of their last 27 victories. New England has a bye the following week. The Patriots are 4-0 SU and ATS the past four times before a bye. They will be holding nothing back. This is a kill spot for the Patriots with the talent and situation stacked in their favor. 

Milwaukee is likely looking at being 0-3 if it loses this game. So motivation should be high. The Bucks' starters didn't play well with the exception of Giannis Antetokounmpo when they lost at home in their opener, 107-96, to Charlotte this past Wednesday. 
The Hornets are off to a fast 2-0 start after beating the Heat on the road Friday night. Now the Bucks step way down in class facing the Nets - a team oddsmakers assigned the lowest over/under win total - at home. After this matchup, the Bucks travel to Detroit to play the Pistons on Sunday in a game they will be underdogs in. 
Brooklyn is 2-0 ATS getting a cover in its opener against the overpriced Celtics and upsetting the Pacers at home last night. It's going to be extremely rare to find the Nets in a happy and fat state. This is one of those rare times. 
The Nets are playing in their third game in four days. They have to go back on the road and then come back home to host the Bulls and Dwayne Wade on Monday. Brooklyn is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road contests and 0-6 ATS when playing without rest going back to last season. 
The Bucks have dominated the Nets winning 11 of the past 15 meetings, including all three times last season. This is extremely satisfying for Bucks coach Jason Kidd, who played and coached for the Nets and left that franchise on bad terms. Kidd will hold no qualms about trying to bury the Nets at home.