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Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
09-22-19	Raiders v. Vikings -7.5	Top	14-34	Win	100	130 h 54 m	Show
Jon Gruden doesn't fool me. The Raiders are bad on both sides of the ball. Just like last season. They lack skill position talent and their defense is bottom tier. The Raiders don't travel well either losing 15 of their last 17 road/neutral sites matchups going 3-13-1 ATS in those games. The Vikings have one of the best home fields in football covering 70 percent of their last 54 home games. Note this is an early start time, too. Bad news for the West Coast Raiders. Dalvin Cook is a premier running back. If the Raiders load the box to stop him they become vulnerable to Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. The Vikings are hungry for a win after losing to the Packers last week.
09-21-19	Louisville v. Florida State -6.5	Top	24-35	Win	100	47 h 50 m	Show
With just a one-point overtime victory against Louisiana Monroe, Florida State is desperate for a victory. The Seminoles are 1-2, but could be 3-0 having blown fourth-quarter leads against Virginia and Boise State. Florida State has the athletes and talent especially on offense. James Blackman has come through at quarterback and Cam Akers is one of the best running backs in the country. Scott Satterfield is doing a good job in his first season at Louisville. But he has a major rebuild job to do. The Cardinals are coming off easy wins against two overmatched opponents, Eastern Kentucky and Western Kentucky. This is a step-up game for the Cardinals and it's also an off-surface for them. While I think the Cardinals are improved and on the right track under Satterfield, I don't see them staying within a touchdown of highly motivated Florida State.
09-20-19	Utah -3.5 v. USC	Top	23-30	Loss	-103	75 h 31 m	Show
If USC's Clay Helton isn't the worst head football coach in a major conference than he's certainly in the discussion for that dubious distinction. The Trojans are 7-19-1 ATS (27 percent) in their last 27 games. Utah defeated USC, 41-28, last year with the score not fully indicative of how much the Utes dominated. Utah built a 34-14 lead, had 17 more first downs and nearly 350 more yards than USC. The Utes have the two best skill position players on the field in QB Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss, one of the best running backs in the nation. The Trojans are starting freshman Kedon Slovis at quarterback due to injuries and transfers. Slovis had a passer rating of just 54 and was picked off three times in a road overtime loss to BYU this past Saturday. Utah met BYU in its opener and won, 30-12, on the road. The unbeaten Utes have covered 12 of their last 17 road matchups.
09-19-19	Houston +5.5 v. Tulane	Top	31-38	Loss	-110	33 h 33 m	Show
I'm not buying into any Tulane hype, or that the Green Wave should be a favorite against Houston. The Cougars have one of the top dual threat QB's in the nation in D'Eriq King, who accounted for 50 touchdowns last season and is getting more comfortable operating Dana Holgorsen's offense. Tulane's Justin McMillan is better than some past Tulane QB's and he has a deep group of running backs and wide receivers. But King has plenty of help, too, especially with the return of running back Patrick Carr. Tulane just played Missouri State this past Saturday. That was a cupcake opponent. Houston's statistics are skewed, especially defensively, by having already played high-powered fourth-ranked Oklahoma and 19th-ranked Washington State. So this is a drop in class for the Cougars, who covered against both of those Top-25 opponents. The Cougars rolled past Tulane, 48-17, at home last season. The Cougars were favored by seven in that game. During the previous four seasons from 2014-2017, the Cougars were favored by eight, 27, 21 and 17 points against Tulane. Houston has covered in six of its last seven trips to Tulane. Now the Green Wave not only is expected to beat the Cougars but cover a mid-size margin doing it. I'm not drinking that Kool-Aid.
09-15-19	Chiefs -6.5 v. Raiders	Top	28-10	Win	100	44 h 45 m	Show
Credit to the Raiders for beating Denver in Week 1. Jon Gruden had a good game plan and his defense played hard. But now the Raiders go from Joe Flacco, who I rank with Eli Manning as the worst starting QB in the NFL, to the best, Patrick Mahomes. The Raiders defense is porous and they are now without injured safety Johnathan Abram. The Chiefs should have no problem moving the ball up and down on the Raiders. They don't need Tyreek Hill against such a weak caliber defense. Kansas City averaged 37.5 points against the Raider last season with Mahomes throwing for six touchdowns and averaging 9.3 yards per attempt. Oakland isn't going to be able to keep up with Kansas City. Derek Carr is just a glorified dink-and-dunker. I'm not impressed with his skill position weapons either with Antonio Brown having left. Carr has been picked off nine times in his career by the Chiefs. The Raiders are missing their starting guards. They are one of the few teams that could make the Chiefs defense look good.
09-15-19	Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5	Top	28-26	Loss	-110	116 h 25 m	Show
I want the Steelers at home going for me in this spot. Pittsburgh laid an egg at New England on national television this past Sunday night. Ben Roethlisberger has a strong history of playing much better at home. The Steelers' offensive line is elite. James Connor and JuJu Smith-Schuster are more than adequate replacements from the departed Le'Veon Bell and prima donna Antonio Brown. Seattle is down this season. The Seahawks were life and death to beat a bad Bengals team at home opening week. Seattle is 3-6 SU and 0-8-1 ATS in the first two weeks of the season during the past four plus years. The Seahawks are down because they no longer have their fabled Legion of Boom secondary. All of those guys are gone. Their best defensive lineman, Jarran Reed, is suspended. Seattle is a ground-and-pound team. That style isn't going to work on the road against the Steelers, who won't lack motivation after last Sunday's humiliation to the Patriots. Pittsburgh ranked sixth in run defense and were tied for first in sacks last season. Russell Wilson lost his top wide receiver with Doug Baldwin retiring.
09-14-19	Maryland v. Temple +7.5	Top	17-20	Win	100	24 h 60 m	Show
Maryland is being overrated in this spot following blowout victories against Howard, an FCS bottom feeder, and Syracuse. Both of those easy wins came at home. The Terrapins now hit the road to play a very physical, rested and well-coached opponent. The Owls had a bye last week giving them two weeks to prepare for this nonconference matchup. Temple is averaging just a shade below nine wins per year during the past four seasons. Temple's offense looked good in its opener, a 56-12 romp over Bucknell at home. The Owls may have the best secondary in the American Athletic Conference. The Owls are strong at linebacker, too. They have their top seven tacklers from last season all back. The Owls have covered 11 of the last 14 times they've been home 'dogs winning six of those games outright. A similar situational spot happened last year when the teams met in Week 3. Maryland played Temple that week sporting a 2-0 mark, with one of those victories being an impressive upset win against Texas. The game was at Maryland. Temple won, 35-14. The Owls outgained the Terps by 234 yards.
09-09-19	Broncos +1 v. Raiders	Top	16-24	Loss	-110	148 h 12 m	Show
Von Miller and Bradley Chubb may be the best pass rushing tandem in the NFL. They are in line for big games against a depleted Raiders offensive line that won't have their starting guards and likely going with untested Kolton Miller at left tackle. It's hard to imagine the Raiders getting a ground attack going against Denver minus guards Richie Incognito, who is suspended, and Gabe Jackson, out with a knee injury. I'm not high on Raiders rookie running back, Josh Jacobs. Vic Fangio is an upper level defensive coach and he's had plenty of time to game plan. The Raiders have a bottom-five defense. Indications are that the Broncos' two best playmakers, running back Philip Lindsay and Emmanuel Sanders, are back to health. That's all Joe Flacco needs to game manage a victory here for Denver.
09-07-19	Nevada v. Oregon -23.5	Top	6-77	Win	100	75 h 16 m	Show
Oregon has won 14 straight home openers. The Ducks should have no problem extending that streak to 15 in a row hosting Nevada. Justin Herbert is in the short discussion for best QB in the country. He should find little resistance from a porous Nevada secondary. Oregon is off a brutal 27-21 loss to Auburn in which the Tigers scored the game-winning TD on a 26-yard pass with nine seconds left. Oregon has Montana on deck. So the Ducks should be fully focused for this matchup ready to take their frustrations out on a much weaker foe than Auburn. Nevada is in the opposite spot. The Wolf Pack pulled out a home victory against Purdue as a double-digit 'dog on a 56-yard field goal at the gun in their opener. Purdue had a 14-point fourth-quarter lead against the Wolf Pack, who couldn't stop the Boilermakers' passing attack. The Boilermakers were done in by a 5-0 turnover ratio. That's not likely to happen to a Reno opponent two straight weeks. The Wolf Pack aren't nearly as good as the Ducks and are in a huge letdown spot. Nevada nipped Oregon State at home early in the season last year and then fell, 63-44, on the road to Toledo the following week. Look for a similar pattern here.
09-06-19	Marshall +12.5 v. Boise State	Top	7-14	Win	100	18 h 25 m	Show
Boise State often is overpriced when playing at home. That's the case here especially with the Broncos coming off an upset road victory against Florida State in their opener last week. The Broncos have failed to cover in 16 of their last 23 home games. Freshman QB Hank Bachmeier spearheaded a tremendous Boise State comeback against the Seminoles as the Broncos rallied from a 31-13 deficit. The Broncos, though, are in a big letdown spot and Bachmeier will be challenged by a strong Marshall secondary. The Thundering Herd get a rare chance to play on national TV. They may be the best team in Conference USA. While Bachmeier gets a lot of attention for his heroics, Marshall sophomore QB Isiah Green looked good in his team's 56-17 win against Virginia Military Institute last week. Green is backed by a deep of running backs and receivers.
09-02-19	Notre Dame -18 v. Louisville	Top	35-17	Push	0	30 h 24 m	Show
Notre Dame is going to get its points in this one. Louisville's defense was terrible last season giving up an average of 44.1 points and 483.5 yards a game. The Cardinals ranked among the bottom-four in those important defensive categories. They are on their fourth defensive coordinator in four years. Making it worse, the Cardinals also got poor punting last season. Notre Dame averaged better than 36 points a game last year after Ian Book became its starting QB in Week 4. I can't see Louisville keeping up. The Cardinals have many questions on the offensive side of the ball. New coach Scott Satterfield seems like a good hire based on his track record at Appalachian State. But it's going to take time to fix the huge mess Bobby Petrino left him. Drawing Notre Dame for their opener is a real bad break for the Cardinals, who have failed to cover in 13 of their last 16 home games and are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 nonleague games.
09-01-19	Houston +23.5 v. Oklahoma	Top	31-49	Win	100	20 h 44 m	Show
I'm not buying that Oklahoma is more than three touchdowns better than Houston. In fact, I like Houston QB D'Eriq King more than Sooners QB Jalen Hurts. I regard King as the top QB in college football especially now that he has Dana Holgorsen as his head coach. King has the rare opportunity to showcase his skills in front of a national TV audidence with the game on ABC. Holgorsen is an offensive guru. He was head coach at West Virginia last year. The Mountaineers played Oklahoma last season and narrowly lost, 59-56. The Sooners shouldn't be laying this high of a number to such a strong offense. Oklahoma was last in the nation in pass defense in 2018 while ranking at the bottom in the Big 12 in scoring defense and total defense. The Sooners also have a question mark at kicker as the FBS' all-time leading scorer among kickers, Austin Seibert, has left. This is going to be a shootout of the highest proportions. Houston was very weak against the run last season. And that was with stud Ed Oliver. But the Cougars have defensive line depth, experience at the safety spots and get to go against the Sooners in their first game breaking in four new offensive line starters.
08-31-19	Virginia Tech v. Boston College +4	Top	28-35	Win	100	172 h 41 m	Show
Virginia Tech's defense was historically bad under long-time defensive coordinator Bud Foster last year. The Hokies should be improved as they can't get much worse. But it's going to take time. The Hokies gave up 31 points a game last season, which ranked 85th. They were 98th in yards allowed and their run defense ranked 106th. BC has one of the top running backs in the nation, AJ Dillon. He's fresh and healthy, something he wasn't last year. Eagles QB Anthony Brown has experience and is capable of running the offense. He has improved as a passer. The Eagles won, 31-21, against Virginia Tech last season on the road. I do think the Hokies will be better, but this isn't a good matchup for them and it's the first game. So I'll gladly accept these points.
08-30-19	Purdue -9.5 v. Nevada	Top	31-34	Loss	-110	250 h 47 m	Show
If I could pick one wide receiver to have on my college football team it would be Purdue's Rondale Moore. He's the most exciting player in college football in my view. This is a perfect storm of key factors that point to Purdue beating Nevada by double-digits. Moore heads up a very strong group of Purdue receivers. Even tight end Brycen Hopkins is very good for the Boilermakers. Senior QB Elijah Sindelar is underrated at this point. He's going to have a big season with so many talented receiving targets. Nevada has a very weak secondary. The Wolf Pack also are untested at quarterback, smaller than Purdue and weaker in the trenches. The Boilermakers have been pointing to this game for a long time after being humiliated, 63-14, by Auburn in the Music City Bowl. Purdue has won each of its road openers under Jeff Brohm beating Nebraska, 42-28, last year and Missouri, 35-3, two seasons ago. Those are better teams than Nevada. The Boilermakers can't misfire here knowing Vanderbilt and TCU are up next for them before they enter Big Ten action. So expect a strong, focused effort from the better team that should result in an easy victory.
08-28-19	Twins -1.5 v. White Sox	Top	8-2	Win	100	18 h 57 m	Show
The Twins lead the majors in homers and rank No. 2 in runs. The White Sox are 28th in runs and 26th in homers. Expect the Twins to pad their homer lead with the wind blowing out strong to left field at 13-16 mph and facing 33-year-old Ross Detwiler, who has surrendered 15 homers in 47 1/3 innings this season. Minnesota is 41-22 on the road. That's the second-most away wins in the majors. The Twins are 8-2 in Jake Odorizzi's last 10 road starts. Odorizzi is pitching on six days rest. That's important since he is 5-0 with a 1.00 ERA when he's pitched on extra rest this year.
08-23-19	Browns v. Bucs +3	Top	12-13	Win	100	58 h 10 m	Show
Beating preseason football is about finding teams who care meeting those who don't while also getting value on the line. This pattern fits the Buccaneers right now in their Friday home game against the Browns. Tampa Bay has been preparing for this matchup like it were a regular-season game. Jameis Winston figures to see his most action. The Buccaneers have a deep set of quality wide receivers and a preseason superstar in backup quarterback Ryan Griffin, who has thrown for 531 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions in Tampa Bay's first two preseason contests. Browns coach Freddie Kitchens said he won't reveal how much his starters are going to play Friday, but indications are the Browns won't be treating this exhibition as serious as Tampa Bay. Cleveland is sitting at 2-0 with nothing to prove. The Browns aren't likely to use Odell Beckham Jr. and Myles Garrett because they aren't 100 percent. Cleveland is a false favorite here based on perception with its unbeaten preseason record and tremendous hype. The Bucs are home and the likely team to treat this game more serious than the Browns.
08-22-19	Blue Jays v. Dodgers -1.5	Top	2-3	Loss	-124	20 h 43 m	Show
The Dodgers simply don't lose at home. They have won 79 percent of their last 57 home games going 45-12. No baseball team can match that. Toronto went through its bullpen trying to beat the Dodgers on Wednesday. The Blue Jays came close, but lost, 2-1, in 10 innings. I don't see the Blue Jays being able to hang against the Dodgers a second straight time in a pitching matchup of rookie Jacob Waguespack versus Kenta Maeda. Prior to Wednesday, the Dodgers' last six victories were by an average of 8.3 runs. Waguespack has a 4.20 ERA. The Dodgers rank in the top four in runs and homers. Maeda has a history of pitching much better at Dodger Stadium. That history has held up this season where he is 6-3 with a 2.84 ERA at home. LA has won eight of his past 11 home starts. Toronto has dropped 14 of its last 17 interleague games, including the past eight when going against a righty starter.
08-20-19	White Sox v. Twins -1.5	Top	4-14	Win	100	17 h 59 m	Show
Returning home following a 5-1 road trip, the Twins were knocked off by the White Sox, 6-4, on Monday. It was just the fourth time in the last 15 meetings the White Sox have defeated Minnesota. I don't see the Twins losing a second straight time to Chicago at home. White Sox starter Reynaldo Lopez had been pitching well - until this past Thursday when he was tagged for five earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. The Twins lead the majors in homers and rank second in runs. Nelson Cruz, Minnesota's second-leading home run hitter with 32, has recovered from a wrist injury and is back in the lineup. Lopez has struggled versus Minnesota in his career with a 5.46 ERA in five starts. Twins starter Michael Pineda has been amazing consistent yielding three earned runs or fewer in 15 of his last 16 starts. Pineda has a 3.08 lifetime ERA against the White Sox in six starts. Minnesota has won by more than one run during 10 of its last 11 victories.
08-15-19	Raiders v. Cardinals -3	Top	33-26	Loss	-110	28 h 32 m	Show
Barnum & Bailey otherwise known as the Oakland Raiders' traveling circus visits the desert Thursday. Arizona hosts Oakland looking to go 2-0 in preseason under rookie NFL head coach Kliff Kingsbury. The Cardinals opened with a win and cover beating the Chargers, 17-3, at home last Thursday. Kingsbury certainly wouldn't mind cheering up long-suffering Cardinal fans with another home victory as this will be Arizona's final preseason home game. The Cardinals conclude preseason with road matchups against the Vikings and Broncos. The Raiders have a huge disadvantage playing on the road in a short week after defeating the Rams, 14-3, at home this past Saturday night. It's been a crazy week for the Raiders with Hard Knocks filming and Antonio Brown hogging headlines with his insane antics. So the Cardinals check the boxes when it comes to situation, being the more focused team and motivation in laying positive groundwork for a new coach. Another key in preseason is quarterback rotation. I like what the Cardinals have compared to the Raiders. Kyler Murray played a series last week. He is expected to play longer against the Raiders as the Cardinal need to get their rookie signal-caller more actual game experience. The Raiders don't need to do that with their starter, Derek Carr. I like Murray better than Carr given Murray's mobility and high ceiling. I also prefer Brett Hundley, Arizona's second-string quarterback, much more than Oakland backup quarterbacks Mike Glennon and Nathan Peterman. Hundley is one of the better preseason quarterbacks. He was 10 of 14 for 104 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers last week. The immobile Glennon was picked off twice without throwing a touchdown pass in his 2019 preseason debut last Thursday. As for Peterman, the less said the better. He is not only one of the worst quarterbacks in the league, but in NFL history. This is the start - and possible - end of Peterman's NFL career after two seasons with Buffalo where he compiled passer ratings of 30.7 and 38.4 with a 3-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
08-10-19	Rams +5 v. Raiders	Top	3-14	Loss	-110	10 h 51 m	Show
There is a time when Blake Bortles is useful. That time is now. Bortles is now the backup quarterback for the Rams. He's going to see extended playing time against the Raiders. Bortles loves Sean McVay's scheme and system. The Rams will be holding out their star skill position players. Bortles, though, has worked extensively with the second unit. So he already has a rapport with Mike Thomas and JoJo Natson. The Rams have an underrated running back, rookie Darrell Henderson. He could make his mark in this game as the Raiders' defense doesn't look much better than last season's unti that gave up an NFL-worst 29.2 points per game and had only 13 sacks. The teams have held joint practices the past couple of days and the Rams have come away as the far superior team, which they are. The Rams beat the Raiders, 19-15, at home during preseason last year. The Raiders also have been distracted by the filming of Hard Knocks and Antonio Brown's ridiculous behavior.
08-02-19	Ottawa +7.5 v. Montreal	Top	30-27	Win	100	9 h 26 m	Show
The Alouettes are on a three-game win streak and favored for the first time this season. This isn't a little number either. Montreal hasn't won four straight games since 2014. I'm not sold that the Alouettes can cover a touchdown. They are off a bye. But I don't see that as a good thing. It can slow their momentum. It's a big plus for the Redblacks if they get starting quarterback Dominque Davis back for this game. I think Davis plays. But if he doesn't, I like Ottawa at this price anyways. Backup QB Jonathon Jennings was a lot better in his second start completing 15 of 18 passes and the Redblacks defense has looked better. Ottawa has covered 70 percent of its past 37 road games and is 6-0 ATS the past six times playing at Montreal.
08-01-19	Hamilton v. Saskatchewan -2.5	Top	19-24	Win	100	33 h 40 m	Show
I don't see Hamilton beating Saskatchewan on the road after losing its starting quarterback, Jeremiah Mosaoli, for the season this past Friday after Masoli suffered a torn ACL. The Tiger-Cats have to turn to second-year QB Dane Evans. The Roughriders are back home after a pair of victories against British Columbia. They have momentum and revenge for a 23-17 road loss to Hamilton opening week. The Roughriders have dominated the Tiger-Cats at home going 17-4-1 ATS. Saskatchewan QB Cody Fajardo is ahead of his counterpart Evans. Fajardo has made five CFL starts and is coming off a 21-for-26 passing game and 46 yards rushing.
07-25-19	Calgary -5 v. Ottawa	Top	17-16	Loss	-105	50 h 22 m	Show
I like Calgary in a revenge spot for an opening week, 32-28, loss to Ottawa as a 9-point home favorite. The Stampeders have won three of their last four games since then. Their defense has improved giving up an average of 18.6 points a game during their past three games. Nick Arbuckle has been doing a solid job at quarterback for Calgary replacing injured Bo Levi Mitchell. Ottawa really is struggling offensively scoring 14, 19 and one point during its last three games. The RedBlacks have a long injury list headed by quarterback Dominique Davis. Minus Davis and wide receiver R.J. Harris, Ottawa was held to 12 first downs and 175 yards in its 31-1 loss to Winnipeg last Friday. I don't see the RedBlacks solving their problems, especially at quarterback, in time for this matchup.
07-12-19	Astros -1.5 v. Rangers	Top	8-9	Loss	-126	17 h 39 m	Show
I want the Astros going for me coming off a 5-0 shutout loss to Lance Lynn and the Rangers Thursday night. The Astros are back healthy with the exception of Carlos Correa. They drop way down in class going from facing Lynn to journeyman Jesse Chavez, who I consider more of a relief pitcher than starter Chavez will be making his fourth start. He's getting worse having allowed seven earned in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. He is off a season-high 90-pitch count. The Rangers have one of the worst bullpens in the majors, while the Astros' relief corps is among the best. Astros starter Gerrit Cole was the AL Pitcher of the Month in June. He is 5-0 with a 1.76 ERA in his last eight starts with 70 strikeouts in 51 innings. The Rangers are really missing injured Hunter Pence. They are averaging just 3.7 runs in their last 11 games discounting a 9-3 Fourth of July victory against the Angels. Each of the Rangers' past six losses have come by more than one run.
07-03-19	Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5	Top	4-5	Loss	-115	18 h 9 m	Show
The Dodgers are just too tough especially at home where they have won 43 of their last 55 games. That's a winning percentage of 78 percent. LA is 9-3 in Walker Buehler's last 12 home games. Buehler is pitching on extra rest. The Dodgers are 9-1 the past 10 times Buehler has pitched on five days rest. Buehler faced the Diamondbacks a month ago holding them to one run in eight innings while giving up two hits with no walks and 11 strikeouts. Arizona starter Merrill Kelly has a 4.99 road ERA. He is 0-2 with a 5.29 ERA in his last three starts. The Dodgers' bullpen has been pitching much better than the Diamondbacks' bullpen during the last few weeks. Arizona closer Greg Holland blew a save Tuesday night by walking four straight batters.
06-30-19	Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies	Top	10-5	Win	100	10 h 30 m	Show
There is a Dodgers starter who is capable of pitching well at Coors Field. That starter is Kenta Maeda and he's pitching today. Lifetime against the Rockies, Maeda is 6-3 with a 2.30 ERA. Maeda is 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA at Coors Field. Colorado starter Chi Chi Gonzalez is working his way back from Tommy John surgery. This is only his second big league appearance since 2016. Gonzalez gave up three runs on six hits and four walks in five innings against the Giants on the road this past Thursday. Gonzalez still has a ways to go to get rid of his considerable rust. He goes from a strong pitcher's park in San Francisco to making his second big league start in three years at Coors against one of the best and deepest offenses in baseball. So I see this as a kill spot for the Dodgers, who have lost two in a row to Colorado. If you discount yesterday's 5-3 loss to the Rockies, the Dodgers are averaging 10 runs and nearly three homers a game during their previous five games at Coors.
06-22-19	Twins -1.5 v. Royals	Top	5-3	Win	100	9 h 29 m	Show
Danny Duffy sits unclaimed in the free agent pool in my 12-team American League Rotisserie league. A couple of owners, myself included, picked him up only to discard him after a brief trial period. The unamimous conclusion is Duffy isn't effective anymore. He wasn't good last season with a 4.88 ERA and he's not good this year with a 4.64 ERA. Duffy is going through another bad stretch with a 7.32 ERA in his last four starts. Now Duffy draws the top offense in baseball. The Royals are 5-13 in Duffy's last 18 starts. Kansas City is 1-7 the past eight times Duffy has faced an above .500 team at home. Kansas City is 15-24 at home. Minnesota is 25-13 on the road. It's a big reason why the Twins have the best record in the majors. The Twins' bullpen advantage was on full display when they came from behind to beat the Royals Friday night. Now Minnesota has a monster starting pitching edge with Jose Berrios taking on Duffy. Berrios is an elite level starter, who unlike Duffy, is in great current form with a 1.31 ERA in three starts this month. Minnesota is 12-4 in Berrios' last 16 starts, including winning his past five road starts. It shouldn't be too much to ask the Twins, who will get nine innings of at bats, to defeat the Royals by more than one run so we avoid laying such heavy juice.
06-20-19	Twins -1.5 v. Royals	Top	1-4	Loss	-113	16 h 42 m	Show
There are four American League teams who are terrible this season - Orioles, Royals, Tigers and Blue Jays. They are teams you would like to fade every day if you could, but the oddsmaker makes that hard to do by assigning heavy juice to their opponent. Baseball being baseball it's not responsible money management to lay huge prices. The trick to getting around this is the run line where you are confident of beating these bad teams by more than one run. I see that here with the visiting Twins in a pitching matchup of Jake Odorizzi versus Glenn Sparkman. Odorizzi is have a magical season with a 10-game win streak and 2.24 ERA. Minnesota is 14-3 in his last 17 starts. Odorizzi is backed by the best offense in the majors. Minnesota ranks No. 1 in runs and homers. The Royals are at their worse going against upper echelon teams. Minnesota has the best record in the American League at 48-24 for a .658 winning percentage. The Royals have lost 50 of the last 62 times when going against a foe with a win percentage above .600. Sparkman isn't very good and he's been downright terrible against the Twins with an 0-3 record and 6.75 ERA in his career against them. The Twins just got to see Sparkman this past Satureday and scored five runs off him in five innings. Kansas City ranks 25th in runs and 26th in homers. The Royals also could be without arguably their second-best player, shortstop Adalberto Mondesi. He leads the majors by a wide margin in steals with 27. Thursday Free Play A's plus $1.02 hosting Rays Tampa Bay is a good road team. They Rays also have a solid starter going in Charle Morton. So why go against them? Three reasons: Price, spot and Frankie Montas. The Rays find themselves in a tough situation. They just were swept in New York by the Yankees, a huge letdown for them considering that was a showdown for the AL East Division lead. Tampa Bay was outscored 21-4 by the Yankees in the three-game series. The Rays have lost seven of their last nine games and have to travel from the East Coast to the West Coast. The last time the Rays were on West Coast time was early April. AL East teams often struggle when playing the A's in Oakland. They are used to playing in hitter's parks. The A's, who are 22-17 at home, play in a pitcher's park that has strange dimensions. It is not a popular venue for opposing teams. I like the righthanded Morton. I just like Montas better. Montas has become an All-Star this season giving up three or fewer runs in 13 of his 14 starts. His swinging strike rate has gone from 8.6 percent last year to 11 percent. The Rays have the added disadvantage of never having faced him. Morton is coming off a subpar start where he allowed four earned runs and two homers in six innings against the Angels this past Saturday. Oakland has won six of its last seven games against a righy starter.
06-16-19	Blue Jays v. Astros -1.5	Top	12-0	Loss	-108	11 h 48 m	Show
Toronto has much to celebrate with the Raptors. Toronto has nothing to celebrate, though, with the Blue Jays, losers of 17 of their last 22 games. The Astros have blasted the overmatched Blue Jays, 22-4, in the first two games of this series. I'm expecting the Astros to manhandle Toronto once again so have no qualms about laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line to reduce the heavy juice. Houston is averaging 8.7 runs in its last four games. Each of Toronto's last 10 defeats have been by more than one run. The pitching matchup is Trent Thornton, who has a 4.78 ERA, facing Brad Peacock, who is 4-1 with a 2.01 ERA in his last seven starts with 45 strikeouts in 40 1/3 innings during this span. The Astros are 22-8 in Peacock's last 30 starts, including 6-1 this season during his home starts.
06-07-19	Raptors v. Warriors -4.5	Top	105-92	Loss	-104	13 h 59 m	Show
Perhaps the Raptors do win the NBA Finals. But I don't see the Warriors going down a second straight time at home especially with Klay Thompson expected to play. Call it a rhythm or zig-zag play, but the Warriors are due to shoot better in this series. The Raptors are fat and happy after upsetting the Warriors, 123-109, in Game 3 on Wednesday and knowing Kevin Durant remains out. Before pouring dirt over the Warriors, let's remember just two games ago in Game 2 at Toronto. The Warriors held the Raptors to 37.2 percent shooting from the floor and 28.9 percent from beyond the arc. The result was a 109-104 Golden State victory. I see this Game 4 matchup resembling that Game 2. The Warriors have the big-game NBA Finals-pedigree, a powerful situational edge being home down 2-1 and the quality defense to clamp down on the Raptors, who have been getting far better shooting games from a number of players than what was realistically expected from them.
05-30-19	Warriors +1 v. Raptors	Top	109-118	Loss	-105	82 h 56 m	Show
I give Toronto tremendous credit for overcoming Milwaukee in the Eastern Conference Finals. I also believe the Raptors have the best player on the court in Kawhi Leonard. But Toronto is not in Golden State's class. The Warriors are a level higher. Disagree? Look at the series price. That should tell you what the oddsmaker believes. So I am not buying the Raptors opening a favorite in Game 1 of this championship series. The Warriors know they must win at least one road game to take this series. They will be fully prepared to give a strong effort in this opener. They have had extra prep time from sweeping the Trail Blazers, which helps Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson get healthy. The Raptors lack the Warriors' Championship Series experience having never been to this stage before. You wonder if they still might be on Cloud 9 after taking out the Bucks. The Warriors are 7-3 ATS when playing on three days rest or more. The Raptors are 1-8 ATS in that situation. Golden State always gets off to a good start in the playoffs winning 18 of 19 Game 1's under Steve Kerr, including going 3-0 this season beating the Clippers, Rockets and Trail Blazers by a combined 43 points in its series openers. Toronto, by contrast, lost Game 1 to the Magic and Bucks. There has been some sentiment towards Toronto because the Warriors weren't that sharp despite sweeping the Trail Blazers and Kevin Durant won't be in action. The Warriors have adjusted to Duran't absence, though. Curry and Thompson are shooting more and their bench play has picked up. Golden State's defense has been solid, too. The loss of Durant isn't enough to go against the Warrors at this price point.
05-23-19	Raptors v. Bucks -6.5	Top	105-99	Loss	-107	21 h 31 m	Show
Look, you either believe in the Bucks, or you don't. I do - especially when they are home like here. Milwaukee had the best regular season mark both SU (straight-up) and ATS (against the spread). It has been the same in the playoffs where the Bucks have won and covered 10 of 13 times. The Bucks didn't play up to their capability in Game 3 yet it took two overtimes for the Raptors to put them away at home. I thought the Bucks would play much better in Game 4. The Raptors, to their credit, stepped up and protected their home floor with an impressive 120-102 win. Nick Nurse made some key defensive adjustments and Toronto's role players came through. Now it's the Bucks' turn. Perhaps it's just being glib to say that, but these are the facts: The Bucks are 21-5 ATS following a loss. They have covered 18 of the last 24 times after not covering in their previous game. They also haven't lost three games in a row all season! The Bucks are the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA. They also ranked first in offensive rebounding. They are deeper than Toronto, better on the boards and stronger defensively finishing No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage. In my view, there are only three players who can trump the greatness of Kawhi Leonard. That being LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has the advantage of being at home and healthier than Leonard, who has been hindered by a left leg injury. This is a big spread. I understand that. I hate having to lay more than six, which is a key number in the NBA. But so far the spread has not factored in any of the Bucks' 13 playoff games. The winner of the game covered the spread every time. There's the possibility, too, of the Raptors waving the white flag if they were to fall too far behind by resting Leonard knowing how important he'll be for Games 6 and 7.
05-21-19	Sharks v. Blues -1.5	Top	1-5	Win	181	20 h 52 m	Show
Injuries and the luck factor turning against them leave the Sharks dead in the water for this Game 6 road matchup against the Blues. I don't see San Jose staying alive by beating St. Louis here. Even if the Sharks are hanging in trailing by just one goal there is the strong possibility of an empty net goal taking place since San Jose is in must-win mode down 3-2 in the series. The Blues' superior defense and goaltending with star rookie Jordan Binnington has come alive. The Blues have taken control of the series winning the past two games holding the Sharks to just one goal during this span. The Sharks are 3-7 in their past 10 road contests. San Jose has been the luckiest team in the playoffs. But that luck has run out. The Blues buried the Sharks, 5-0, at San Jose in Game 5. The Sharks have gotten hit hard by injuries with key players captain Joe Pavelski, two-time Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson and Tomas Hertl, their second-leading goal scorer next to Pavelski, all missing significant time in Sunday's Game 5 defeat. Jaden Schwartz has been a monster for the Blues scoring 12 goals during the postseason. Vladimir Tarasenko is stepping up now, too, producing at least one point in five consecutive games.
05-19-19	Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors	Top	112-118	Loss	-109	17 h 52 m	Show
We saw it in Game 3 with the Warriors beating the Trail Blazers by 11 points on Saturday. We're likely to see it here, too, in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The superior team is an underdog on the road yet easily wins straight-up. Maybe the Raptors can break that mold. I doubt it, though. Milwaukee was the best point spread team during the regular season. Milwaukee is the best ATS team in the postseason, too, going 9-1 SU and ATS. The Bucks have outscored the Raptors by 35 points during the last five quarters. What's become clear is the Raptors aren't good enough, nor deep enough, to beat the Bucks. Toronto hasn't solved Milwaukee's offense, nor its defense, averaging 101.5 points in the series, which is 13 points below its season average. The Bucks have too many weapons to go with with Giannis Antetokounmpo for the Raptors to keep up. Kawhi Leonard doesn't have the bench help, nor the veteran step-up that the Bucks have been providing for Antetokounmpo.
05-19-19	Giants v. Diamondbacks -1.5	Top	3-2	Loss	-100	13 h 11 m	Show
The Diamondbacks' last three victories have been by an average of eight runs. I like Arizona to beat the Giants, enough to lay the run line to get a plus price instead of risk laying heavy juice. Drew Pomeranz is coming off the injured list to start for the Giants. Pomeranz has been highly inconsistent and isn't likely to go deep into the game, which would put the Giants' vulnerable middle relievers into action. Lefty Robbie Ray is in great form for the Diamondbacks with a 3-0 mark and 1.98 ERA in his past five starts. His ERA is 1.10 during his last three starts. Arizona is 5-2 versus the Giants in Ray's past seven starts against San Francisco. The Giants are 5-9 versus lefty starters this season. Word is the Giants will be resting Buster Posey and Brandon Belt. Brandon Crawford may also sit out. San Francisco has won just 33 percent of its past 43 road games.
05-17-19	Raptors v. Bucks -6.5	Top	103-125	Win	100	19 h 13 m	Show
The Bucks not only finished with the best record in the NBA during the regular season, but also the best point spread mark covering 60 percent of their games. Milwaukee has been even better in the playoffs winning and covering nine of 10 games. The Bucks even covered a 6.5-point spread in Game 1 against Toronto despite not playing well until the very end. The Bucks were a bit rusty and Giannis Antetokounmpo is capable of much better. Look for the Bucks and superstar Antetokounmpo to step up their game here. If that's the case, Milwaukee should win by double-digits for the eighth time in 11 postseason games. Milwaukee is a dominant home team, is much deeper than Toronto and Malcolm Brogdon and Khris Middleton are strong enough defenders to bother Kawhi Leonard. The Bucks aren't totally dependent on Antetokounmpo like the Raptors are on their superstar, Leonard. The Raptors had to go the full seven game limit with the 76ers in the Eastern Conference semifinals. That took a toll on Leonard, who was babied during the regular season often sitting out games for rest purposes. Now Leonard is dealing with tough defenders and a fatigue factor. Kyle Lowery played extremely well in Game 1 of this series. But Lowery hasn't looked very good up until this point. I doubt he keeps that up. The Raptors have grown too accustomed to watching and waiting on Leonard to close out games. He's not going to be able to do that against this caliber of elite opponent. Leonard needs help and so far key Raptors aren't providing that. Marc Gasol, Pascal Siakam and Danny Green aren't hitting clutch shots. The Bucks have covered five of the last six matchups against the Raptors. They are the superior team with upside considering their Game 1 performance. Toronto had their chance in Game 1 and blew it. Look for the Bucks to win this game much more handily.
05-15-19	Raptors v. Bucks -6	Top	100-108	Win	100	20 h 56 m	Show
I want the Bucks going for me here in this Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. While Toronto has been up and down and fortunate to survive a Game 7 against the 76ers, Milwaukee has been dominant in the postseason just like in the regular season. The Bucks have won and covered eight of nine playoff games with seven of the eight victories occurring by double-digits. Milwaukee's average winning margin is 15.3 points. The Bucks don't want a repeat of their last series when they were ambushed at home by the Celtics in Game 1. Milwaukee hasn't lost since with Antetokounmpo averaging 30 points during the last four games. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard are a trade-off. Both rank among the top five players in the NBA. Milwaukee, though, is getting better backcourt play and is the deeper team. The Bucks have had the proper response for everything the Pistons and Celtics threw at them. It's a huge added bonus for the Bucks that underrated guard Malcolm Brogdon has returned after being out seven weeks with a foot injury. He may be the Bucks' best defender. The Bucks defeated the Raptors in three of four regular season meetings and have covered four of the past five in the series.
05-08-19	Rockets +6.5 v. Warriors	Top	99-104	Win	100	19 h 40 m	Show
Some believed the Rockets were better than the Warriors last season when the teams met in the Western Conference Finals. But then Chris Paul got hurt and had to miss Games 6 and 7. The Warriors took advantage to win those games and the series. Paul is healthy this time around. The Rockets are improved and the Warriors have gotten worse. If there is any separation between the two teams now it is minimal at best, which is proven by no team winning by more than six points during the first four games of the series. These games have all been close down to the wire affairs. Yes, the Warriors are home now. But Houston has momentum and confidence having won two in a row. The Warriors are showing more fatigue. Their bench is struggling with just a combined 18 points during the past two games. Stephen Curry isn't 100 percent. Golden State also doesn't have a good point spread track record at Oracle Arena just 11-23-1 ATS (32 percent) the past 35 times there.
04-30-19	Rockets +5.5 v. Warriors	Top	109-115	Loss	-106	27 h 45 m	Show
The Warriors escaped the Rockets last season in the Western Conference finals winning in seven games. Chris Paul didn't play in Games 6 and 7 last season because of injury. The Rockets lost both of those games. Paul is healthy now, the Rockets are better than they were at this time a year ago and the Warroirs are worse. The Rockets nearly beat Golden State in Game 1, but lost 104-100 because of official's calls that didn't go their way, making less than 30 percent of their 3-point shots and James Harden having a terrible shooting game going just 9-for-28 from the floor. I expect Harden to shoot much better. I also expect more calls to go in Houston's favor after the NBA has come under scrutiny for the unfair officiating against the Rockets when Houston faced the Warriors last year and in Game 1. P.J. Tucker and Clint Capela combined to score only four points on 1-for-6 shooting from the floor in Sunday's game. They should do much better especially Capela. The Rockets could be the most underrated defensive team in the NBA. They finished No. 2 in defensive efficiency during the final 15 games of the regular season. They held the Warriors 13 points below their season average while forcing 20 turnovers and coming up with 14 steals. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson both are less than 100 percent because of ankle injuries. DeMarcus Cousins is out. The Warriors are one of the worst point spread home teams going 10-23-1 (30.3 percent) in their last 34 games at Oracle Arena, including failing to cover 12 of the last 18 times. Houston has covered four of the past five times on the road against Golden State.
04-27-19	76ers +6.5 v. Raptors	Top	95-108	Loss	-104	21 h 44 m	Show
I'll go with the 76ers' superior starting lineup against the Raptors' deeper bench. Toronto's depth may factor later on in this series, but for now both teams are fresh and should have their full energy. Philly has too many weapons for the Raptors. It's going to take Toronto coach Nick Nurse a lot longer to figure out the 76ers than it did the Magic, the weakest of any of the playoff teams. The Raptors don't have enough weapons to contain Joe Embiid, Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, JJ Redick and Ben Simmons, who I'll take over Kyle Lowery in the pivotal point guard matchup. The Raptors have yet to prove they have exorcized their playoff demons. They lost at home in Game 1 to the Magic and are 0-8 ATS the past eight times when playing after three or more days rest. The 76ers are ready to take that next playoff step. They are confident coming off four straight wins and covers against the Nets, who are a better team than the Magic.
04-24-19	Mariners +1.5 v. Padres	Top	0-1	Win	100	13 h 21 m	Show
Padres rookie Chris Paddack is off to a nice start. But he is way overpriced here, enough so where I can take the Mariners plus 1 1/2 runs on the run line without having to lay monster juice. Seattle has won nine of its last 11 road games and has the much superior offense. The Mariners entered their series against the Padres ranked No. 1 in runs scored at 6.4 per game. They have scored 31 runs during their last five games. Seattle has excellent hitting depth with eight players producing at least 14 RBI's. Paddack went six innings, a career-high, in his last outing. He has thrown just 20 innings in his big league career yet is rated a huge favorite by the linesmaker here against Felix Hernandez. Sure "King Felix" is on the downside of a brilliant career, but he still knows how to pitch and he'll be helped throwing at pitcher-friendly Petco Park where he is 5-1 lifetime with a 1.63 ERA in eight starts. San Diego ranked just 27th in scoring entering the series. The Padres are 2-6 in their last eight games and 19-37 during their past 56 home games.
04-20-19	Nuggets v. Spurs -3.5	Top	117-103	Loss	-109	17 h 3 m	Show
The Nuggets haven't won in San Antonio in more than seven years, losing 14 straight times to the Spurs on the road. I don't see that changing here in Game 4 of their playoff series. The Spurs should be up 3-0 instead of 2-1, but blew a 19-point lead midway through the third quarter in Game 2. They are the clear better team and they have a strong home-court history. Second-year guard Derrick White has stepped up big-time for San Antonio giving the Spurs three major weapons along with DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge. The Spurs have those players going for them along with a huge gap in playoff experience. While the Nuggets are involved in their first postseason experience since 2013, the Spurs are in the playoffs for the 22nd straight season.
04-19-19	Raptors -4.5 v. Magic	Top	98-93	Win	100	16 h 19 m	Show
Nice job by the Magic in reaching the playoffs this season and upsetting the Raptors in Game 1. The clock struck midnight, though, for the Magic in Game 2 when they were buried, 111-82, by Toronto this past Tuesday. The Raptors are vastly superior. They could be among the four best teams in the NBA. The Magic can't hang against this type of focused opponent especially when their best player, Nikola Vucevic, can't produce. Vucevic has been held to an average of 8.5 points a game making just six-of-21 shots from the field.
04-14-19	Thunder +3.5 v. Blazers	Top	99-104	Loss	-109	5 h 2 m	Show
If you can't stop Russell Westbrook and Paul George you can't beat the Thunder. Portland couldn't stop either one. Westbrook averaged 29.5 points, 10 rebounds and 8.8 assists against the Trail Blazers this season while George averaged 38 points and 10.5 rebounds. The result was Oklahoma City going 4-0 versus Portland with an average victory margin of seven points. Now the Trail Blazers are without their best big man, injured Jusuf Nurkic, and their second-leading scorer, CJ McCollum, hasn't looked good since coming back late in the season after missing 10 games with a knee injury.
04-12-19	Blue Jackets v. Lightning -1.5	Top	5-1	Loss	-100	20 h 48 m	Show
Tampa Bay was the best team in hockey this season - and it wasn't even close. Perhaps things came too easy for the Lightning in their playoff opener against the Blue Jackets. Columbus has been hot, but there was no excuse except overconfidence for the Lightning blowing a 3-0 lead at home to the Blue Jackets in a 4-3 loss on Wednesday. It was a hard loss for the Lightning. It's a defeat the Lightning should learn from. I expect them to bring a great deal of intensity to this Game 2 matchup. I can't lay this big of juice especially in a Stanley Cup game. But I strongly believe Tampa Bay will win this game by multiple goals so I'm going with the Lightning on the puck line laying 1 1/2 goals and getting a plus price back. Tampa Bay has won by multiple goals in nine of its last 13 victories. The Lightning defense is stronger, too, with the return of Victor Hedman, who missed the last four games of the regular season.
04-09-19	Raptors v. Wolves +7	Top	120-100	Loss	-105	18 h 17 m	Show
This is the Timberwolves' final home game of the season. So a strong effort should be forthcoming from them. Minnesota has been good at home going 25-15 SU, 22-18 ATS at Target Center. Toronto has a losing road point spread mark. This game also means nothing to the Raptors since they are locked into the No. 2 playoff seed in the Eastern Conference. It's the Raptors' final regular season game so obviously they would like to avoid any injury, which could mean sitting out a star such as Kyle Lowery and Kawhi Leonard. The Timberwolves are down to third-string point guard Tyus Jones. He's coming off a career-high in assists, though, and is bolstered by talented scorers, Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Dario Saric Minnesota has covered the past four times against Toronto, too.
04-08-19	Texas Tech +1.5 v. Virginia	Top	77-85	Loss	-106	34 h 33 m	Show
Texas Tech plus 1 1/2 vs. Virginia Great, great job by Chris Beard and Texas Tech reaching the NCAA Tournament title game. Virginia is here, too. The pressure is all on the Cavaliers - and they usually don't respond well to it. The Cavaliers were the first No. 1 seed in NCAA Tourney history to lose to a 16th seed last year. They trailed Gardner-Webb at halftime in their opening NCAA Tourney game this year. Virginia is darn lucky to even survive having nipped Oregon by four points, slipped past Purdue in overtime and received a couple of official's gifts in edging Auburn by one on Saturday winning in highly controversial fashion. Virginia is 2-7 ATS in its last nine NCAA Tournament games. Texas Tech is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games and 11-0 ATS the past 11 times going against a foe that has a winning record. The Cavaliers for the first time are going to face an opponent that can match them - if not exceed them - defensively. The Red Raiders held Michigan State to its lowest point total of the season, something I'm not sure Virginia could have done.
04-07-19	Nuggets v. Blazers -3	Top	108-115	Win	100	18 h 23 m	Show
Portland has short revenge for a 119-110 road loss to the Nuggets on Friday. That victory just about locked up the No. 2 seed in the West for the Nuggets. It gives the Nuggets enough cushion that they feel comfortable sitting out their three best players against the Trail Blazers. Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap are all going to miss this game putting the Nuggets at a huge disadvantage. Those three led the Nuggets to their victory against the Trail Blazers two days earlier scoring a combined 70 points. The Nuggets are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times following a victory. Denver has been a mediocre road team all season with just a 20-19 away record. Portland is 30-9 at home and 12-3-1 ATS following a point spread loss. The Trail Blazers not only have short revenge motivation, but are going for playoff seeding still holding a chance at gaining the No. 3 seed. The Trail Blazers hold the No. 4 seed, one game ahead of the Jazz with Utah holding the tiebreaker. CJ McCollum is probable for the Trail Blazers. McCollum, the Trail Blazers' second-leading scorer, has missed the past 10 games with a knee injury. His presence should serve as added inspiration.
04-06-19	Blackhawks v. Predators -1.5	Top	2-5	Win	120	17 h 11 m	Show
The Blackhawks didn't make the playoffs again, but they did finish the home portion of their disappointing season in style with a 6-1 victory against the Stars Friday night. Now, though, the Blackhawks travel to Nashville to face the Predators in the regular season finale with the Predators needing a victory to lock up the Central Division. I forsee a letdown and fatigue issues for the Blackhawks against the highly motivated Predators. This will be Chicago's fourth game in six days and second in two nights. The Blackhawks are 8-21 the past 29 times playing on zero rest and 3-8 when playing for the fourth time in six days. The Blackhawks also are fat and happy from their impressive victory against Dallas Friday. Nashville is 4-1 in its last five games. The Predators aren't going to screw around after pulling out a 3-2 win against the lowly Canucks at home on Thursday after falling behing 2-0. The Predators have defeated the Blackhawks four of the past five times at home and are 8-3 overall versus them during the last 11 meetings.
04-06-19	Auburn v. Virginia -5	Top	62-63	Loss	-110	102 h 15 m	Show
Auburn is really going to miss Chuma Okeke. He's the Tigers' leading rebounder, top defender and third-leading scorer. The Tigers have gotten away with his absence by their long-range hot shooting. That's not going to work against Virginia. Not only do the Cavaliers give up the fewest points per game in the nation, but they rank in the top five in defensive field goal percentage, 3-point defense and defensive rebounding. The Cavaliers haven't played up to their capabilities in the NCAA Tournament so far. I see them finally bringing their "A" game to the table here. The Cavaliers have covered 75 percent of their 20 non-home games this season. I trust them in this spot against this one-dimensional opponent missing its best player.
04-03-19	Astros -1.5 v. Rangers	Top	0-4	Loss	-109	11 h 4 m	Show
The Astros have dominated the Rangers at Globe Life Park winning 14 of the past 16 times (88%) there. I see this as a kill spot for the Astros so I'm laying 1 1/2 runs playing the run line in order to cut back on the heavy juice. The pitching matchup is Gerrit Cole versus lefty Mike Minor. Cole is an elite pitcher, who is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in five career outings versus the Rangers with four of those starts occurring last season. Minor is a borderline starter, who was hammered in his first start this year giving up six runs on five hits in 4 2/3 innings against the Cubs. The Astros are 39-23 against southpaws since last season, including 2-0 this year.
04-02-19	Nuggets v. Warriors -8	Top	102-116	Win	100	22 h 31 m	Show
I give the Nuggets tremendous credit for their outstanding season. But they are not in Golden State's class. When the Warriors are motivated they can bury any team, including the Nuggets. The Warriors have proven that in the last two meetings defeating the Nuggets by an average of 24 points the past two times. Denver is not a good road team as evidenced by covering only 42 percent of its road games this season. The Warriors will be focused. They are hitting their stride after destroying the Hornets, 137-90, this past Sunday at home. Denver enters the matchup trying to fix its offense. The Nuggets are averaging fewer than 95 points a game during their past five games. Golden State ranks No. 2 in scoring at 117.7 points a game. The Warriors rank No. 1 in field goal percentage. The Nuggets aren't as good as the Warriors and the timing for this showdown matchup isn't good either for Denver.
04-02-19	Wichita State v. Lipscomb +1	Top	64-71	Win	100	16 h 16 m	Show
Lipscomb lacks the name recoginition of Wichita State. But the Bisons are the better team. The Bisons had 14 road victories, most in the nation. So they are well-tested away from home. They are 21-7-1 ATS during their past 29 nonconference games. The Bisons have plenty of experience from last season's NCAA Tournament team. They are 19-3 in their last 22 games and rank in the Top 10 in scoring, scoring margin and assists. I respect Wichita State coach Gregg Marshall. But the Shockers are going to have problems matching up against senior guard Garrison Mathews, who can light things up from the perimeter like he did against North Carolina State in the quarterfinals of this NIT tournament scoring 44 points. Matthews has averaged at least 20 points in each of the past three seasons.
03-30-19	Texas Tech v. Gonzaga -4	Top	75-69	Loss	-109	19 h 13 m	Show
Sure Texas Tech has the capability of upsetting Gonzaga. The Red Raiders play tenacious defense and have a tremendous coach in Chris Beard. But Texas Tech would have to play its "A" game and Gonzaga would have to be off its game. I don't see that happening. Gonzaga has the deep tournament experience, a height advantage, leads the nation in scoring and has a very strong defense, too. Gonzaga ranks No. 1 in the country in scoring, field goal percentage, scoring margin and assist-to-turnover ratio. But the Bulldogs aren't just offense. They also ranked sixth in defensive efficiency, tied for sixth in defensive field goal percentage and were tied for 18th in defensive 3-point field goal percentage. The Bulldogs are deeper than Texas Tech, too, with a 10-man rotation. The Red Raiders are going to have problems up front dealing with Gonzaga's star big men, Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke. Add it all up and Gonzaga has enough edges to cover this number.
03-29-19	Virginia Tech v. Duke -7	Top	73-75	Loss	-104	18 h 11 m	Show
Duke had its scare surviving Central Florida, 77-76, in its last game. The Blue Devils pulled that one out down three points with 14.4 seconds left. Expect a much better performance here from the Blue Devils. Duke is big-game, tournament experienced while Virginia Tech hasn't made the Sweet 16 since 1962. The Hokies are 2-6 ATS the past eight times meeting a foe with a winning record. The Blue Devils were missing Zion Williamson when they fell, 77-72, to Virginia Tech on the road during the second-to-last week of the regular season. Duke won't be flat here. The Hokies aren't beating the Blue Devils a second time this season.
03-27-19	Colorado v. Texas -5.5	Top	55-68	Win	100	19 h 54 m	Show
Texas is home and the superior team. The Longhorns rank 30th, according to Kenpom ratings, while Colorado checks in at No. 63. The key question is how motivated are the Longhorns? They were tremendously disappointed not to make the NCAA Tournament. Colorado, on the other hand, has embraced the NIT with its young players having the attitude of using this tournament to gain valuable postseason experience for next year. Fewer than 1,600 fans showed up for Texas' first round home game in the NIT. Normally the Longhorns draw more than 10,000 fans for their home contests at the Erwin Center. The Longhorns doubled their attendance for their second NIT home game. Now with the Longhorns a win away from going to New York for the semifinals of the tournament, the fans and team are starting to get excited. If motivated, Texas should cover this number against Colorado. The Buffaloes are 5-8 in true road contests. Texas is 14-6 at home. Among the Longhorns' home wins were victories against Purdue, Oklahoma, Kansas, Baylor and Iowa State. All of those teams made the NCAA Tournament. The Big East was much better than the Pac-12 this season. Texas didn't make the Big Dance because it went 1-4 down the stretch, including losing to Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament. Star guard Kerwin Roach was suspended for all those games. Roach is back and off his best game in more than a month scoring 21 points with eight rebounds and six assists in the Longhorns' 78-76 overtime victory in their second-round NIT game against Xavier. That's a very encouraging sign for Texas. And just another reason why I like the Longhorns to cover this number.
03-26-19	Rockets +4 v. Bucks	Top	94-108	Loss	-100	20 h 44 m	Show
You would have to go back to Feb. 21 to find the last time the Rockets lost by more than four points. That's a span of 17 games. Houston is 14-2 in its last 16 games. The Rockets' only two losses during this 16-game span occurred to the Warriors by two points and on the road to the Grizzlies by one point in overtime. The Bucks are shorthanded in the backcourt and close to cruise control leading the Raptors by four games for best record in the Eastern Conference. The Rockets have revenge for a 116-109 home loss to the Bucks from Jan. 9 and are playing for playoff seeding in the Western Conference. So this game is more important to them. In a matchup of superstars, primarily James Harden vers. Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks are missing a key underrated cog with Malcolm Brogdon out with a foot injury. He would have been the best defender against Harden. The Bucks also lost guard Tony Snell to an ankle injury in their win against the Cavaliers this past Sunday.
03-25-19	Longwood +15 v. DePaul	Top	89-97	Win	100	16 h 55 m	Show
If you're going to lay this big of a number in a tournament, you better play at least decent defense. DePaul doesn't. The Blue Demons give up 75.5 points a game, which ranks 276th. Only once in their last 20 games have the Blue Demons won by a margin this big. DePaul is 11-26-3 (29.7 percent) following a victory. Reaching the quarterfinals of the College Basketball Invitational may not be a big deal for some teams, but it is for Longwood, a team from the Big South Conference. The Lancers opened the tournament rolling past Southern Mississippi, as 9 1/2-point home 'dogs. That was the 10th time in their last 11 tries the Lancers had covered in a non-conference matchup. DePaul is the home team here. Yet it should be noted that the Blue Demons won't be on their regular home court. It's being used to host a women's basketball tournament. So this game is being played at a much smaller gym that is the home of the DePaul women's volleyball team.
03-23-19	Murray State +5 v. Florida State	Top	62-90	Loss	-115	16 h 12 m	Show
On the surface, this spread should be higher, right? A good ACC team in Florida State taking on Murray State from the Ohio Valley Conference. But there is more than meets the eye here. Murray State is legitimate and on a roll with 12 straight wins. Racers guard Ja Morant may be the second-best player in college basketball in back of only Duke's Zion Williamson. The Racers didn't just beat but dominated a very strong Marquette squad, 83-64, on Thursday. The Racers are on a mission to showcase their talents and Morant's superstar game - 24.4 points, 10.2 assists and 50.4 percent shooting statistics on the season. Florida State had to endure a rugged ACC slate and reaching the conference tournament title game. So sure the Seminoles are battle tested, but the flip side is they also have a higher fatigue factor. That may have been played a part in their less-than-sterling 76-69 non-cover win against Vermont on Thursday. Vermont sank 16 of 32 shots from 3-point range. That could prove telling against the up-tempo gunning Racers. Florida State relies on its size and defense to beat opponents. The Seminoles don't have a Morant. Murray State, though, has a couple of big man pounders in KJ Williams and Darrell Coward to keep competitive on the boards. The Racers are 8-2 ATS, too, during their last 10 non-conference games. Florida State is 1-6 ATS the past three plus seasons under Leonard Hamilton when laying points in post-season tournament action.
03-22-19	Arizona State v. Buffalo -4.5	Top	74-91	Win	100	13 h 42 m	Show
Buffalo blasted Arizona, 89-68, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last season. I easily can see the Bulls doing the same to a much worse Arizona State squad. The Bulls are the MAC champions. So it's easy to point out they are a mid-major, but Buffalo dominated that conference while the Pac-12 was way down this season. I don't see the Sun Devils being able to keep pace with the Bulls especially with point guard Remy Martin dealing with a groin injury. I'm sure Martin, the catalyst for the Sun Devils, will play but I doubt he will be 100 percent. The Bulls are riding a 12-game winning streak. They are the more rested team having last played on Saturday. ASU had to beat St. John's on Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio to reach this game. This marks the Sun Devils' third game in eight days - all in different time zones. Buffalo is the fifth-highest scoring team in the country at 84.9 points. That's more than seven points better than what Arizona averages. The Bulls certainly aren't going to lack motivation taking on a Pac-12 opponent especially with the added incentive of going against Bobby Hurley, the former coach of Buffalo. Bulls coach Nate Oats was Hurley's lead assistant and recruiting coordinator before replacing his departed mentor. Note, too, that Buffalo is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games against nonconference opponents.
03-21-19	Florida v. Nevada -2	Top	70-61	Loss	-109	21 h 40 m	Show
Nevada has far more talent and experience than Florida. The Gators are lucky to have made the Tournament given that they have 15 losses. The Wolf Pack paid their dues last season. They reached the Sweet 16 and have all their key pieces back. I consider Eric Musselman one of the top coaches in the nation. The spread is lower than I thought. One reason for this could be Nevada getting upset, 65-56, as 10 1/2-point favorites against San Diego State in the semifinals Mountain West Conference Tournament. The Wolf Pack are much better than that. They were missing their second leading scorer and top rebounder, Jordan Caroline, in that game. Carolina is expected to play here. Nevada is 19-6-1 ATS following a loss.
03-20-19	Wizards -2 v. Bulls	Top	120-126	Loss	-113	18 h 9 m	Show
The youthful Bulls may not be fully focused for this home matchup as they just concluded three games on the West Coast with a 116-101 win against the Suns on Monday. Motivation shouldn't be a problem for the Wizards. They are in must-win mode trailing the Heat by 4 1/2 games for the final playoff spot in the East. The Wizards are a respectable 8-10 since trading Otto Porter to the Bulls for Jabari Parker and Bobby Portis. Porter has done well with the Bulls, but sat out Chicago's victory against Phoenix with a sore shoulder. Zach LaVine, the Bulls' best player, has been gutting things out with a thigh and knee injury. There are no guarantees Porter and LaVine play against the Wizards. Washington handled the Bulls, 134-125, at Chicago last month. The Wizards have covered seven of the past eight times when meeting a sub .500 opponent.
03-19-19	Dayton v. Colorado -4.5	Top	73-78	Win	100	28 h 48 m	Show
Unlike the NCAA Tournament, some teams aren't excited about getting to play in the NIT. Dayton is one such team. The Flyers finished their regular season in highly disappointing style losing, 64-55, as 4 1/2-point favorites against St. Louis in their opening game of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament. Indications are the Flyers are not excited about traveling to Boulder, Colo., for this matchup. Not helping matters for the Flyers is their leading scorer, Obi Toppin, is deaing with a knee injury. Contrary to Dayton, Colorado is excited about competing in this tournament. The Buffaloes are young and expect to return all of their main players for next season. They want to use this tournament to gain more big-game experience. The Buffaloes are 10-3 in their last 13 games. They also have covered eight of the last 10 times versus opponents with a winning record. This is what Colorado coach Tad Boyle was quoted as saying about his team and playing in the NIT: "We're playing well here down the stretch. There are a few teams that are leaking oil this time of year, but we're not one of them. I like the way we're playing and really the key for our guys is they are excited, they are going to embrace this. They did not want their season to end."
03-13-19	Jazz -7.5 v. Suns	Top	114-97	Win	100	13 h 50 m	Show
It happened on Sunday, but the Suns still could be celebrating their stunning 115-111 upset win of the Warriors. Phoenix was 17-point road 'dogs. It was the first time the Suns had defeated the Warriors in 19 games having lost 18 in a row to them. The Jazz have won the past four meetings against the Suns by an average of 24.4 points. They whipped Phoenix, 116-88, as 15-point home favories in the previous meeting on Feb. 6. But no way now do the Jazz take the Suns lightly. Utah is in stop-the-pain mode have losting three of four, including two in a row. Utah's defense has been there. But the Jazz's shooting has been off. They hit just 36.4 percent against the Thunder at home on Monday in losing, 98-89. That was the fewest points the Thunder had scored in 27 games. Unfortunately for the Jazz too many of their normally reliable scorers were cold in that game. Donovan Mitchell, who is approaching superstar status, Jae Crowder and Joe Ingles were a combined 15-for46 from the floor in that loss to Oklahoma City. Expect the Jazz to shoot much better against a Phoenix defense that ranks 28th. The Suns have yielded 116 or more points in 18 of its last 22 games. The Jazz are 15-5-1 ATS the past 21 times following a loss and have played better on the road lately covering four of their last five away matchups.
03-12-19	Blazers -2.5 v. Clippers	Top	125-104	Win	100	20 h 43 m	Show
There are reasons why Portland opened a road favorite against the Clippers. The Trail Blazers are the superior team holding a huge starting backcourt edge with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum and also have the best big man in Jusuf Nurkic. It's a strong spot, too, for Portland. The Trail Blazers last played on Saturday while the Clippers are in action for the third time in five days and are playing without rest. LA is in danger of letting down after consecutive impressive home victories versus the Thunder and Celtics. The Trail Blazers have been sharp on the road covering in six of their last seven away contests. Portland also is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings versus the Clippers, while covering in their last four visits against the Clippers.
03-11-19	San Diego +5 v. St. Mary's	Top	62-69	Loss	-109	9 h 18 m	Show
San Diego is playing well going 3-0 SU and ATS in the West Coast Conference Tournament. The Toreros enter this semifinal matchup with a lot of confidence having just destroyed BYU, 80-57, on Saturday. They are 8-3 ATS the past 11 times taking on foes with a winning record. St. Mary's enters the tournament off a disheartening loss to Gonzaga. That was nine days ago. So the Gaels are going to have some rust. Note this game is at neutral site Las Vegas. St. Mary's is 2-7 ATS the past nine times when playing at a neutral site.
03-10-19	Iowa v. Nebraska +1	Top	91-93	Win	100	11 h 25 m	Show
Nebraska plays much better defense at home and as bad as the Cornhuskers have been against the spread lately, Iowa has been worse. The Hawkeyes have failed to cover in their last seven games. Fran McCaffery is back coaching the Hawkeyes after being suspended the previous two games. But Iowa hasn't been good for the past three weeks. If it weren't for a home overtime victory against Indiana, the Hawkeyes would be riding a five-game losing streak instead of a three-game loss streak. The Cornhuskers have revenge for a 93-84 road loss to the Hawkeyes on Jan. 6. Nebraska surrenders 16.3 fewer points per game at home. This is Senior Day at Nebraska and I expect James Palmer and Glynn Watson to play well. This has been a home series with the host covering the last four times.
03-06-19	Louisiana Tech v. Florida Atlantic	Top	72-69	Loss	-108	17 h 22 m	Show
I don't understand this line. But I'll certainly take advantage of it. Louisiana Tech is great when playing at home as evidenced by a 15-1 mark. However, the Bulldogs are 3-10 on the road. They have lost their last eight road games. This includes a 69-61 loss to Florida Atlantic on Jan. 31. The Owls won that game despite shooting just 36 percent from the floor. Florida Atlantic outrebounded Louisiana Tech, 43-31. Louisiana Tech has lost and failed to cover its last two games, falling to Marshall, 90-79, as seven-point home favorites and losing, 83-76, as 1 1/2-point road favorites against Florida International this past Sunday. The Bulldogs are 7-16 ATS the past 23 times following a loss. Florida Atlantic should come in with a lot of energy and confidence. The Owls last played on Thursday when they defeated North Texas, 60-54, as eight-point road 'dogs pushing their record to 17-12. Kudos to first-year Florida Atlantic coach Dusty May as that victory ensured the Owls of their first winning season since 2010-11. The Owls have won and covered three of their last four games.
03-05-19	Utah State v. Colorado State +7	Top	100-96	Win	100	13 h 3 m	Show
Ambush time for Colorado State. The Rams have covered 11 of their last 15 Mountain West Conference matchups, including three of the last four. They draw Utah State off a huge home win from Saturday against Nevada in what was an intense, bitterly fought game. That victory moved the Aggies into first place in the Mountain West and puts them in a letdown spot here. The Rams have revenge motivation and are playing for playoff seeding in the Mountain West Conference Tournament.
03-04-19	Texas +8.5 v. Texas Tech	Top	51-70	Loss	-108	19 h 56 m	Show
Texas Tech and Kansas State are tied for the Big 12 Conference lead with 12-4 league marks. The Red Raiders are 24-5 overall, while Texas is 8-8 in the Big 12 and 16-13 overall. So record-wise this line looks right. But I see this matchup being much closer than what the oddsmaker anticipates. Texas Tech is 16-1 at home, but has a losing home point spread mark. The Longhorns are 4-10 in games decided by six points or less. Their eight conference defeats have been by a combined 30 points for an average loss of 3.7 points. The Big 12 is a tough conference. Texas is a likley NCAA Tournament team with victories against North Carolina, Purdue, Kansas and a 17-point win against Iowa State in its last game this past Saturday. But the Longhorns can't assume anything. So they will be playing hard, too. Note that the Longhorns steamrolled Iowa State despite not having leading scorer Kerwin Roach, who is suspended. It's a plus if Roach is reinstated for this game, but I'm not counting on that. The Longhorns have covered their last four road games. They also are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have won the past three in the series, including 68-62 on Jan. 12, but their average victory margin in these three matchups is four points.
03-03-19	Marshall +5 v. North Texas	Top	85-82	Win	100	6 h 8 m	Show
Revenge, much better current form and line value. Those three factors heavily line up in Marshall's favor here. The Thunder Herd lost 78-51 to North Texas on the road. That occurred on Feb. 7. The Mean Green haven't won since going 0-5 SU and ATS. They are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games. Marshall, by contrast, has started to play better winning its past two games. The Thundering Herd upset Louisiana Tech, 90-79, on the road in their last game this past Thursday. Jon Elmore showed why he's one of the best players in Conference USA by scoring 34 points for Marshall in that victory. Marshall is strong offensively averaging 79.9 points a game, which ranks 36th in the country. That's nine more points per game than North Texas scores per game. Defense is Marshall's weakness. North Texas, however, is struggling to score. The Mean Green are averaging a meager 54.4 points in their last five games, failing to reach the 60-point mark in any of their last five games.
03-02-19	Texas-Arlington -3 v. Troy State	Top	79-66	Win	100	13 h 20 m	Show
Texas Arlington is 10-6 in the Sun Belt Conference. The Mavericks are in must-win mode trailing Texas State by two games for the top spot. The Mavericks host Texas State next Saturday in their final regular season game. Texas State is a small road favorite against South Alabama today in a game that tips off five hours later than this one. Texas Arlington beat Texas State in the first meeting this season. So the Mavericks should be going all out here in order to potentially set up a first-place showing matchup next Saturday. Troy is last in the Sun Belt at 4-11. The Trojans couldn't withstand the suspension of forward Jordon Varnado, their leading scorer and second-leading rebounder. Varnado averages 21.5 points a game. Troy's second-leading scorer, Alex Hicks, averages 12.5 points. The Trojans are 1-5 SU and ATS since losing Varnado. Troy hasn't been good in the Sun Belt for a while now going 3-12-1 ATS in their past 16 conference games. The Trojans have lost the past two times to the Mavericks, including 86-76 this past Jan. 4.
03-01-19	Blazers v. Raptors -5	Top	117-119	Loss	-109	19 h 23 m	Show
Kudos to Portland on a great road trip - so far. The Trail Blazers are 4-0 on their road swing following a 99-92 victory against the struggling Celtics on Wednesday. So you can't blame the Trail Blazers if they feel fat and happy right now. Now, though, Portland draws Toronto. The Raptors went 8-1 in February concluding the month with an impressive 118-95 home blowout victory against the Celtics on Tuesday. Toronto is 26-6 at home. The Raptors draw the Trail Blazers playing in their fifth road game in nine days. So the Trail Blazers have a fatigue factor working against them, which isn't helped by swingman Evan Turner and center Enes Kanter not available to play. Portland has lost in its last three visits to Toronto going 1-2 ATS with its losing margin being 11 points. The Raptors have added motivation for this nonconference matchup. They lost 128-122 to Portland on Dec. 14. Point guard Kyle Lowery missed that game.
02-26-19	Magic -6.5 v. Knicks	Top	103-108	Loss	-110	18 h 26 m	Show
The Knicks pleased Spike Lee by upsetting the Spurs on Sunday halting an 18-game home losing streak. But they didn't necessarily please New York management, which is angling for their team to get the No. 1 overall draft pick. I question the Knicks' motivation especially after putting a stop to the worst home losing streak in franchise history. New York has failed to cover the past five times after covering a spread. The Knicks also are 1-8 ATS the last nine times when playing on one day's rest. Orlando usually is in tank mode, too, at this stage of the season. Not this year, though. They are just one-half game behind Charlotte for the final playoff spot in the East. The Magic have achieved this by winning their past five road matchups, including knocking off the Raptors, 113-98, this past Sunday. That pushed the Magic's record to 8-2 in their last 10 games. Unlike the Knicks, the Magic are 7-0 ATS when playing on one day's rest. They have covered five of the last six times against the Knicks, including burying them by 26 points during their last visit to Madison Square Garden on Nov. 11. It's an added plus for the Magic if Knicks center DeAndre Jordan has to miss another game with an ankle injury.
02-25-19	76ers +1.5 v. Pelicans	Top	111-110	Win	100	22 h 17 m	Show
No Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis probably plays. Know this going in. But don't be intimidated by it. The 76ers have had several games to adjust to Embiid's absence. They still have other stars - Jimmy Butler and Ben Simmons - and won't lack for motivation coming off a 130-115 embarrassing home loss to Portland on Saturday. Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS the past five times coming off a defeat. The Pelicans are not going to make the playoffs. Davis wants out, the team ranks 27th defensively, morale is shot and they don't have much of a home-court advantage anymore. New Orleans is a little fat and happy, too, off a 128-115 home win against the Lakers on Saturday in which Davis didn't play. Even when Davis suits up he doesn't play many minutes anymore because of his trade request issued last month. The Pelicans know Davis won't be with them next season so they don't use him that much. The Pelicans are 3-12-1 ATS following a victory. They are just 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS in their past eight home contests even with that victory against the Lakers. The 76ers have become more respectable on the road winning and covering four of their last six away matchups. This includes a nine-point victory against Golden State.
02-24-19	Magic +9.5 v. Raptors	Top	113-98	Win	100	13 h 20 m	Show
Unlike the past few years, the Magic come out of All-Star break very live to make the playoffs. Orlando is playing well going 7-2 SU and ATS in its last nine games. The Raptors do not have a good history in this type of spot and have failed to cover in two previous meetings versus the Magic, winning 93-91 as seven-point road favorites on Nov. 20 and losing 116-87 as five-point road favorites on Dec. 28. Nikola Vucevic had 30 points and 19 rebounds in that Orlando victory. Vucevic gives the Magic the best big man on the floor. Toronto may not have its full intensity coming off an emotional, 120-117, home win against Kawhi Leonard's former team the Spurs this past Friday. The Raptors have failed to cover 11 of the last 16 times when meeting a foe with a sub .500 record. Toronto also is 10-20 ATS the last 30 times when favored. Orlando has covered in six of its past seven road contests.
02-22-19	Harvard -1.5 v. Brown	Top	79-88	Loss	-113	18 h 38 m	Show
Yale and Harvard are the class of the Ivy League. Harvard buried Brown, 68-47, as six-point home chalk on Feb. 2. So laying this short price on the road is more than fair. The Crimson have covered 71 percent of their last 33 Ivy League games. Brown has only covered 17 percent of its past 13 Ivy League contests. Harvard also covered 68 percent of its last 22 away matchups and is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings versus Brown. Only once in their last eight games have the Crimson lost. That was against Cornell three games ago and came the day after the Crimson went three overtimes in a victory against Columbia.
02-21-19	Rockets -2.5 v. Lakers	Top	106-111	Loss	-109	20 h 11 m	Show
James Harden, Chris Paul and returning Clint Capela trump LeBron James. That's the bottom line here. The Rockets are back to full health. Paul is in shape and playing well again. Capela is expected to play after missing the last 15 games with a thumb injury. Harden is the MVP of the league scoring 30 or more points in 31 consecutive games. Houston is 21-10 in those games. While the Rockets are among the five best teams in the NBA, the Lakers may not even make the playoffs. They are 3-8 in their last 11 games. James has been back for five games since missing 17 games due to a groin injury. But Lonzo Ball remains out with an ankle injury. The Lakers learned one thing during James' absence - Luke Walton can't coach. Houston is 3-0 versus the Lakers this season after going 4-0 against LA last season. The Rockets also have covered in eight of their past 10 road games versus the Lakers.
02-20-19	Villanova -5.5 v. Georgetown	Top	73-85	Loss	-108	18 h 21 m	Show
I want Villanova off a rare loss. I also want to fade Georgtown now that they realistically are not going to get a bid to the NCAA Tournament unless it does extremely well in the Big East Conference Tournament. The Hoyas are 1-3 in their last four games and off a 90-75 loss to Seton Hall. Georgetown is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 Big East Conference games. The Hoyas also are 4-12-1 ATS during their past 17 home games versus opponents with a winning road mark. Star guard Phil Booth had a sub-par game against St. John's this past Sunday in a 71-65 road loss. The Wildcats blew an 11-point second half lead against the Red Storm. Jay Wright isn't taking that defeat lightly. Booth should help the Wildcats exploit St. John's youthful backdourt. Booth, the Hoyas' leading scorer at 18.3 points, didn't have a strong game in the first meeting between the two teams on Feb. 3. Yet the Wildcats still won, 77-65, covering as 11 1/2-point home favorites. Villanova has proven itself on the road covering 69 percent of its last 51 away matchups. The Wildcats also have covered the past four times versus Georgetown.
02-18-19	Illinois +11 v. Wisconsin	Top	58-64	Win	100	18 h 5 m	Show
Missing 17 of 21 shots from beyond the arc, Illinois lost 72-60 to Wisconsin on Jan. 23. Since then the Illini have gone 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS as their talented but inexperienced freshmen have matured and become more consistent. The Illini are beating good teams during this stretch, too, knocking off Michigan State, Maryland and Ohio State on the road. While Illinois is coming on, Wisconsin is slipping. The Badgers have lost consecutive games to Michigan and Michigan State. No shame in that, but the Badgers are showing signs of fatigue. They are not a deep team either. Wisconsin wins with great defense. Illinois ranks No. 13, though, in forcing turnovers. The Illini average four more points per game than Wisconsin and can keep this one close.
02-16-19	Tennessee v. Kentucky -3	Top	69-86	Win	100	21 h 58 m	Show
I understand the Volunteers have won 19 in a row and are 11-0 in the SEC. But I'm not sold on Tennessee, nor its coach, Rick Barnes. If the Vols win this game, I will be. But I don't see them beating Kentucky on the road. Kentucky's freshmen are starting to mesh. The Wildcats have covered eight of their last nine and are 19-7 ATS the past 26 times going against an opponent with a winning record. The Wildcats will be even more determined to win this game after suffering a 73-71 loss at home to LSU this past Tuesday that ended their 10-game win streak. The Wildcats let a nine-point second-half lead against LSU slip, losing on a tip-in at the buzzer. The Wildcats have the talented shooters to exploit Tennessee's lone real weak spot, their 3-point defense.
02-15-19	Northern Kentucky v. Wright State -1	Top	77-81	Win	100	21 h 44 m	Show
This Horizon League showdown is being shown on ESPNU. It's the biggest game of the season for Wright State and I believe the Raiders will be up for the challenge. The Raiders are home and playing their best ball winning seven of their last eight games while going 5-3 ATS. Wright State is 11-2 at home. Northern Kentucky has a losing record on the road and has been very bad point spread-wise away from home covering only three of its last 12 road matchups. The Norse are 1-8 ATS the past nine times when on the road versus an opponent with a winning home record. Northern Kentucky defeated Wright State, 68-64, as 4 1/2-point home favorites on Jan. 11 The Raiders managed to cover despite shooting much worse from the floor than Northern Kentucky, making just three of 15 3-point attempts and shooing seven fewer free throws. Wright State's bench has improved since that defeat. The Raiders also rank 49th in the country in free throw percentage compared to Northern Kentucky, which rates 321st in the nation in free throw accuracy.
02-14-19	Thunder -3.5 v. Pelicans	Top	122-131	Loss	-120	18 h 1 m	Show
A disinterested superstar who scored three points in his last game. A likely soon-to-be-gone head coach. 27th-rated defense. Low morale. Add it all up and you have the New Orleans Pelicans, losers of 10 of their last 14 games. I don't see the Pelicans regrouping for this matchup, their final one before the week-long All-Star break. Anthony Davis, who scored all of three points in 24 minutes during the Pelicans' excruiating painful-to-watch, 118-88, home loss to the Magic on Tuesday, wants out of New Orleans. It's a given the Pelicans are going to deal him. So Davis isn't putting out and the Pelicans are reducing his minutes not wanting to risk him getting injured. Of course this takes a toll on the Pelicans' chemistry. Alvin Gentry isn't going to get through this as the Pelicans are close to falling apart. A 30-point home loss to the 26-32 Magic doesn't bode well for New Orleans. Neither does a 99-90 road loss to the Grizzlies in their previous game. Oklahoma City is an elite team that is a sizzling 11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS. Russell Westbrook is going for his 11th consecutive triple-double and Paul George has been on fire, too, averaging 38.8 points in his last eight games. New Orleans' bottom-four defense isn't going to be able to contain them. The Thunder shouldn't be letting up either since they won't be playing again for another eight days. New Orleans hasn't had much of a home-court edge either losing six of its last seven home games while the Thunder have covered five of their last six away contests.
02-13-19	Bucks -3.5 v. Pacers	Top	106-97	Win	100	17 h 0 m	Show
Indiana lost its first four games after its leading scorer and best player, Victor Oladipo, was lost for the season with a knee injury. Since then the Pacers have rebounded to win their next six games. The teams they beat are the Heat, Pelicans, Lakers, Clippers, Cavaliers and Hornets. Of that bunch only the Clippers are above .500. I don't see the Pacers stepping up in class now that they have to play the Bucks, who have the best record in the NBA and are 13-2 in their last 15 games. The Bucks are "A" level. The Pacers are "C" level. So this point spread is too short in my view. I don't see the Bucks going into All-Star break with a loss. They should have all hands on deck, including superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. He played on Monday when the Bucks whipped the Bulls, 112-99, in Chicago. There are a number of impressive trends pointing in the Bucks' direction such as being 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 road games, 16-5 ATS when playing on one day's rest and 18-6-2 ATS during their past 26 Eastern Conference games.
02-12-19	Spurs -3.5 v. Grizzlies	Top	108-107	Loss	-115	18 h 45 m	Show
This is the Spurs' final game before All-Star break. They won't play again for 10 days. So you know Gregg Popovich will pull out all the stops to prevent San Antonio from losing a season-high fifth straight game. Lack of defense has really hurt the Spurs on their current road swing. But so has the quality of opposition. San Antonio has faced the Jazz, Trail Blazers and Warriors during its past three games, all on the road. Memphis is 5-18 in its last 23 games, 8-15 ATS. The Grizzlies also are the lowest-scoring team in the league. Despite their losing streak, the Spurs still have covered 69 percent of their last 14 games following a defeat. Memphis is 7-17 ATS the last 24 times it has faced an above .500 opponent. The Grizzlies have won three of their last four. Those wins, however, came against the Knicks, Timberwolves and Pelicans. Those are three bad teams with a combined record of 61-108. The Grizzlies are a worse team, too, after trading Marc Gasol.
02-10-19	Magic v. Hawks +2.5	Top	124-108	Loss	-105	19 h 46 m	Show
Orlando is on Cloud 9 after upsetting the Bucks, 103-83, at Milwaukee Saturday night. Even with that great victory, the Magic are just 9-17 on the road this season and 5-9 ATS in their past 14 away contests. The Hawks are in a great spot to get revenge for a 122-103 home loss to the Magic from Jan. 21. Not only do the Hawks draw the Magic in an obvious letdown spot, but also Orlando will be in action for the third time in four days and playing without rest arriving in Atlanta in the early Sunday morning hours. It's the first time the Magic have to play consecutive games since Jan. 18-19. Atlanta is below-the-radar with some excellent young players - John Collins, Trae Young, Taurean Prince and Kevin Huerter. So the Hawks are not at a talent disadvantage against the Magic. The Hawks are a respectable 12-14 in their last 16 games.
02-09-19	St. Mary's +17 v. Gonzaga	Top	46-94	Loss	-110	11 h 36 m	Show
I recall St. Mary's upsetting Gonzaga, 74-71, as 7 1/2-point road 'dogs last season. But while I'm not saying the Gaels can pull a similar upset in Spokane this season, I do believe they can hang in and that this line is inflated based on Gonzaga winning 13 in a row with many of those victories occurring in blowout fashion. The Gaels haven't lost a game in regulation by more than six points since Nov. 21. The Bulldogs are the No. 1 scoring team in the nation. St. Mary's may be down from previous seasons, but the Gaels still are very good. They rank 21st in field goal percentage and surrender fewer than 67 points a game. Gaels' guard Jordan Ford leads the West Coast Conference in scoring at 22.1 points a game.
02-08-19	Bucks -7.5 v. Mavs	Top	122-107	Win	100	19 h 36 m	Show
Maybe the oddsmaker doesn't quite realize how strong the Bucks are and how weak the Mavericks have become. Because this opening line is way short in my view. It's Milwaukee, not Golden State, that has the best record in the NBA at 40-13. The Bucks rank either first, second or third in points per game, rebounding, field goal percentage and 3-pointers. They are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games. The teams met recently - Jan. 21 - with the Bucks winning, 116-106, at home. Since then, the Mavericks have traded four of their top five players. Gone are DeAndre Jordan, Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes and Dennis Smith Jr. Dallas is left with Luka Doncic and a bunch of lottery-type players. The Bucks will have at least four of the five best players on the court in Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Malcolm Brodon and Eric Bledsoe. Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle is left trying to sift out the garbage. It's going to take him a while to figure out his rotation and the Bucks are not the opponent to experiment on. This is a kill spot for the Bucks given how well they are playing, five consecutive victories all by double-digits, and how bad and vulnerable the Mavericks are now the day after the trade deadline.
02-07-19	Hawaii +1 v. Long Beach State	Top	77-70	Win	100	21 h 33 m	Show
I'm usually attracted to the superior team in a pick or underdog spot. That's what we have here with Hawaii against Long Beach State. Hawaii is 4-3 in the Big West Conference. The Warriors are in must-win mode being 2 1/2 games out of first place. They are ranked 189th in the highly respected Ken Pom ratings. Long Beach State is 2-5 in the Big West with five consecutive losses. The 49ers are ranked 37 spots behind Hawaii by Ken Pom. The Warriors are surrendering 15 fewer points per game than the 49ers during the past five games. The two teams just met last Thursday and Hawaii was a 9 1/2-point home favorite. The Warriors shot 41.7 percent from the floor, missed 21 of 28 3-pointers and shot five fewer free throws yet still easily won, 74-57. So what has caused around a 10-point difference in the line? Well Hawaii is leaving the island following a 75-54 home loss to Santa Barbara as 3-point favorites, but that's not nearly worth that many points. The Warriors are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games following three or more straight home games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 matchups versus a sub .500 opponent. Long Beach State is just 3-7 ATS in its past 10 games against foes with winning records.
02-05-19	Lakers -3 v. Pacers	Top	94-136	Loss	-115	11 h 44 m	Show
LeBron. That's the short answer as to why Lakers in this game. LeBron James is set to play in his second game back from injury after missing the Lakers' 115-101 road loss to the Warriors on Saturday. The Lakers are a fractured team right now. James can pull them through. LA has much tougher games on deck in this road trip meeting the Celtics and 76ers in its next two games. The Pacers carry a much higher fatigue rating than the Lakers. They just finished a four-game, six-day road swing that concluded with a 109-107 win against the Pelicans last night. That victory followed a win against the Heat on Saturday. Indiana was 0-4 since losing its leading scorer and top player, Victor Oladipo, with a knee injury for the season before those victories. Oladipo didn't play either when the teams met in the first meeting this season. James did and scored 38 points in the Lakers' 104-96 win.
02-02-19	Lakers v. Warriors -10.5	Top	101-115	Win	100	17 h 60 m	Show
No team can hang with the Warriors when Golden State is home and fully motivated. I see the Warriors playing with a great deal of intensity following a humbling nationally televised home defeat to the 76ers this past Thursday. That halted the Warriors' 11-game win streak and occurred right after Golden State had returned home following a 5-0 road sweep. It was a flat spot for the Warriors and the 76ers took advantage. Golden State has dominated this series defeating the Lakers in eight of the last nine meetings. However, the one loss during this stretch came on Christmas Day when the Lakers humiliated the Warriors, 127-101. That defeat still bothers the Warriors, who should be at full strength to face the Lakers. LA has LeBron James back, but could have a serious problem at point guard with Lonzo Ball out and Rajon Rondo questionable with an ankle injury. James had missed the previous 17 games with a groin injury until returning in the Lakers' last game, a 123-120 overtime win versus the Clippers on Thursday. James had to log 40 minutes in that victory and said his groin felt sore after the game. So if the Lakers fall way behind they may limit James' minutes not wanting to risk him getting reinjured. The Lakers showed they aren't much without James going 6-11 in his absence. The Lakers have failed to cover in nine of their last 12 visits to Oracle Arena.
02-01-19	Grizzlies v. Hornets -4.5	Top	92-100	Win	100	19 h 38 m	Show
The Hornets are the epitome of a good home team, bad road club. Charlotte is 17-8 at home, but just the opposite - 7-18 - in its away matchups. One of the Hornets' few road victories came just nine days ago when they defeated the Grizzlies, 118-107. It was the seventh time in the past eight meetings that Charlotte has covered against Memphis. I'm expecting that trend to continue today. Memphis has hoisted the white flag with losses in 16 of its last 18 games, including a 1-10 record in its last 11 games. The Grizzlies, to their credit, have been competitive in their last four games losing by three to the Kings at home, upsetting the Pacers at home, losing by just three to the Nuggets on the road and falling to the Timberwolves by two in overtime this past Wednesday at home. The last two defeats were especially brutal for the Grizzlies as they blew a 25-point lead against the Nuggets and were knocked off by the Timberwolves when Karl-Anthony Towns hit a 20-footer at the buzzer off an offensive rebound to give Minnesota the victory. I don't see the Grizzlies, with their low morale and trade rumors swirling about their two best players - Marc Gasol and Mike Conley - getting up a third straight time even though they do have a revenge factor. The game is much more important for the Hornets, who currently hold the final playoff spots in the East. Charlotte is off a bad 126-94 road loss to the Celtics on Wednesday. This is the first game of a three-game homestand. Charlotte plays with a lot more confidence at home. The Hornets destroyed the Grizzlies, 140-79, at home last season when Memphis had a better team. I see this opening number clearly being short.
01-29-19	Bucks -6 v. Pistons	Top	115-105	Win	100	21 h 17 m	Show
The Bucks opened their current five-game road trip with a 118-112 loss to the Thunder on Sunday. Milwaukee has yet to lose two consecutive games all season. The Bucks are 12-2 ATS the past 14 times following a defeat. The Bucks have won their next game after a loss by an average of 14.8 points. The Pistons are 2-3 in their last five games, averaging just 97 points during this span. The Bucks rank No. 2 in the NBA in scoring at 117.3. Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond are having tremendous years for Detroit. But the Pistons are getting little from the rest of the players. They have a weak bench made weaker if backup veteran point guard Ish Smith has to miss a fifth straight game due to a groin injury. Detroit is just 1-6-1 ATS the past eight times it has stepped up to face an opponent with a win percentage above .600. The Bucks have owned the Pistons this season winning all three meetings with the average victory margin being 16 points. Big man Brook Lopez has come on making the Bucks extremely dangerous. Lopez's hot shooting from outside has helped free things up for superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. Unlike the Pistons, the Bucks have a deep bench. Lopez scored 25 points - hitting seven 3-pointers - when the teams last met on New Year's Day with the Bucks winning, 121-98, at home.
01-29-19	Tennessee v. South Carolina +9	Top	92-70	Loss	-110	17 h 3 m	Show
Tennessee is finding out that being the top-ranked college basketball team in the country carries a huge target. The Volunteers have had some narrow escapes in two of their last three games beating Alabama by just three points as 13-point home favorites and getting past Vanderbilt in overtime as a nine-point road favorite. I don't see the Volunteers being quite so fortunate on the road against a rugged, well-coached South Carolina squad that has been peaking since SEC play began going 5-1. Going back to last season, the Gamecocks are 11-2-1 ATS during their past 14 SEC contests. This is Tennessee's fourth SEC road game. The Volunteers have trailed in all three of their league road matchups. South Carolina is good at forcing turnovers and rebounding. The Gamecocks will be fired-up, too, under fiery Frank Martin. Tennessee is coming off its third-worst turnover game of the season committing 16 in their last game against West Virginia. South Carolina has covered in four of its last five games versus Tennessee.
01-25-19	Knicks +10 v. Nets	Top	99-109	Push	0	10 h 53 m	Show
The Nets have been a great below-the-radar story winning 18 of their last 23 games to become a solid playoff contender. The Nets have accomplished this with a deep rotation not having any superstars. But now the Nets are laying their biggest number of the season. They are doing this against a long-time division and neighbor rival and they are doing it when they could be without several players to their rotation, one of whom is vitally important. Star reserve Spencer Dinwiddie - who is averaging 17.2 points - is not likely to play because of a thumb injury, Jared Dudley is out with a hamstring injury and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is questionable with a shoulder injury. Dinwiddie scored 25 points when the teams last met on Dec. 8. The Nets beat the Knicks, 112-104, at Madison Square Garden. Despite their turnaround season, the Nets are averaging an NBA-worst 14,258 fans per game. Many of those fans for tonight's game will be Knicks fans. There is a pride element in the NBA. The Knicks upset the Bucks last month. The Knicks will be up for this game. They have covered six of the last seven in the series. The Nets are not a team to lay big points with as 14 of their last 18 victories have been by single digits. Brooklyn has won three of its last four games by an average of three points with one coming in overtime.
01-24-19	Warriors v. Wizards +10.5	Top	126-118	Win	100	11 h 32 m	Show
Just like last season, the Wizards are playing much better without John Wall. How well? They are 8-3 ATS since losing Wall for the season. The Wizards are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven home games. Included among their victories during this current home span are wins against the Bucks by seven and against the 76ers by 17. Milwaukee has a better record than Golden State. The Wizards' only home defeat during this span came in overtime to the Raptors. This is a rare nationally televised (TNT) game for Washington. The Warriors have a more challenging game on deck playing at the Celtics on Saturday. So the Wizards certainly should be the more motivated team.
01-23-19	Nuggets v. Jazz -3	Top	108-114	Win	100	21 h 59 m	Show
Going up against the Jazz in Salt Lake City usually isn't a pleasant experience. It has been especially tough for the Nuggets. Denver has lost seven road games in a row to Utah with the average loss being 14 points. Denver enters this matchup a bit fat and happy following two blowout home victories. Those wins, though, occurred against the Bulls and Cavaliers. Utah, by contrast, is in an angry mood. The Jazz lost 109-104 at home to Portland in their last game this past Monday. The Jazz had won six consecutive games prior to that. Utah is 9-1-1 ATS following a loss. Denver is 2-7 ATS in its past nine road games. Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert are having exceptional months for the Jazz. Mitchell is averaging 29.8 points in his last nine games. Gobert has pulled down at least 13 rebounds in his last eight games. Gobert could be the best rim protector in the Western Conference and can bother Nikola Jokic. The Jazz's banged-up backcourt is in better shape now with Ricky Rubio back from a hamstring injury that had sidelined him for six games. Rubio got some of the rust off in the Jazz's loss to the Trail Blazers, which was his first game back.
01-22-19	Duke v. Pittsburgh +13	Top	79-64	Loss	-105	19 h 25 m	Show
Duke has a Dream Team of freshmen with RJ Barrett, Zion Williamson and Cam Reddish. But Pittsburgh also has some very good first-year players with Xavier Johnson, Trey McGowens and Au'Diese Toney. Duke is coming off a huge marquee home victory against Virginia this past Saturday. Pittsburgh is treating this as its biggest game of the season. The matchup has been sold out for weeks. Jeff Capel is a big reason why the Panthers are sky-high for this matchup. Capel played four seasons for Mike Krzyzewski and then coached under him for seven years while probably being Duke's top recruiter. Capel was named Pittsburgh's head coach last March. This is the first meeting between Capel and Krzyzewski. Capel knows the Blue Devils better than any opponent. He knows Duke's tendencies and has intimate knowledge of the plays the Blue Devils run. Duke is likely to be missing point guard Tre Jones, who was leading the Blue Devils in assists and was their fourth-leading scorer. He suffered a shoulder injury last week and is not expected to play. The Panthers have covered 76 percent of their lined games under Capel. Pitt is 9-3 ATS in its home games. The Panthers have a strong history of covering spreads versus elite competition going 9-2-1 ATS the past 12 times facing opponents with an above .600 winning percentage. I expect this game to be close throughout. But if Duke does build a double-digit lead the backdoor should be open for Pittsburgh because Capel and Krzyzewski are close friends. Krzyzewski would not want to embarrass Capel especially on Capel's home-court.
01-19-19	Heat -2.5 v. Bulls	Top	117-103	Win	100	17 h 58 m	Show
Miami is 0-2 on its current four-game road trip. The Heat meet the Bulls here before concluding their road swing against the revenge-minded Celtics on Monday. This is the spot for the Heat to make sure they don't go 0-4 on this trip. Chicago is 0-9 in its last nine games. The Bulls just completed an embarrassing 0-5 road trip with a 30-point loss to the Nuggets this past Thursday. The Bulls come back home for the first time in nearly two weeks at low ebb and suffering a key below-the-radar injury. Chicago rookie forward Wendell Carter Jr. suffered a thumb injury this week that is going to sideline him two-to-three months. The 6-foot-10 Carter was coming on averaging 10.3 rebounds and 7 rebounds per game. More important, he gave the Bulls their only physical presence in the paint. His toughness is going to be missed especially against a rugged, defensive-minded team such as Miami. The Heat surrender the fourth-fewest points in the league. The Bulls are last in scoring. Miami lost 98-93 to the Pistons Friday night. The Heat made 5-of-19 free throws (26.3 percent) in that game setting a franchise-record for worst free throw shooting in a game with a minimum of 15 attempts. Miami isn't a good free throw shooting team mainly because of Hassan Whiteside, the worst free throw shooter in the league. But missing 19 of 24 free throws is absurd. The Heat also didn't have Josh Richardson, their leading scorer, in their loss to the Pistons. Richardson missed the game due to illness. It's obviously a plus if he plays. But even if he doesn't I like the Heat. Their Friday starting group of Whiteside, James Johnson Rodney McGruder, Justise Winslow and Tyler Johnson had only played two minutes together all season. Now they would get to start a second straight game within 24 hours. The Bulls lost to the Heat as four-point home underdogs, 103-96, when the teams met on Nov. 23. The Heat didn't have starting point guard Goran Dragic for that game either. Chicago has lost its last four games at United Center. Three of those losses were by 17 points to the Nets, 28 to the Magic and 25 to the Timberwolves.
01-18-19	Pelicans v. Blazers -2.5	Top	112-128	Win	100	22 h 39 m	Show
Both matchup-wise and situationally the Trail Blazers hold key edges. Portland plays better defense than the Pelicans, who rank 27th in scoring defense, and also is the stronger rebounding team ranking No. 3 in the category. The Trail Blazers are playing well, too, winning seven of their last 10. Anthony Davis is an absolute monster up front, but Portland big man Josuf Nurkic is playing the best ball of his career coming off a triple/double and the Trail Blazers hold a backcourt edge with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. As for the spot, Portland has a strong home-court. The Trail Blazers have won 19 of their 26 home games this season covering 62 percent. New Orleans is a bad road club losing 18 of its 24 away matchups while going 9-14 (39%) ATS in those games. This also is the Pelicans' fourth road game in seven days. Being bad on the road and weak defensively is a tough combination for the Pelicans to overcome. The Trail Blazers have defeated the Pelicans in 13 of the last 15 regular-season games, including 132-119 at home on Nov. 1 in the lone meeting between the teams this season. Davis, though, did not play in that game. Don't look for the Trail Blazers to take the Pelicans lightly, however. Portland still has bitter memories of the Pelicans sweeping the Trail Blazers in the first round of the playoffs last season.

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