The Bucks dominate the Bulls when playing in Chicago covering 10 of the last 11 times. Look for that trend to hold up in this meeting.

Milwaukee is in circle-the-wagons mode having lost two in a row, both at home. The Bucks are at full strength and are at their best laying points on the road covering seven of the past nine times as road chalk. The Bulls are struggling defensively and are only 1-10 ATS the past 11 times when taking on foes with a winning percentage above .600. 

The Bulls have allowed an average of 128.5 points during their last two games. 

Milwaukee has beaten the Bulls in all three games this season, including 126-98 on March 22 during the past meeting. 

Despite all the upsets, the NCAA Tournament championship game comes down to two familiar teams - North Carolina and Kansas.

No surprise the Jayhawks have reached the title game being the No. 1 Midwest seed.

Kansas deserves to be here. The Jayhawks rank in the top 30 in scoring and have the 20th best 3-point defense. They blew out Villanova in their semifinal game Saturday. The Jayhawks can be devastating both in the paint and from the perimeter.

North Carolina isn't as strong defensively and relies on its 3-point shooting. So this isn't a good matchup, nor spot, for the Tar Heels. North Carolina has way overachieved being a No. 8 seed. The Tar Heels reached their pinnacle with an upset semifinal victory against arch-rival Duke.

Each of the Tar Heels' last five defeats have come by nine or more points. So a Kansas blowout would not be a surprise.

Toronto needs to be careful here. The Raptors are fat and happy having just concluded a 4-0 homestand with the last two games being a blowout of the Timberwolves and a huge overtime win against the Celtics.

Now the Raptors take to the road to face the lowly Magic. The last time the Raptors were on the road they lost by 14 points to the Bulls on March 21.

Orlando has covered six of the last eight times it has been a 'dog. Toronto is 4-10 ATS the past 14 times playing below .400 opponents.

Both meetings this season have been close. The Raptors edged the Magic, 110-109, back in late October and Orlando defeated the Raptors, 103-97, on March 4.

Paul George played for the first time in three-plus months against the Jazz this past Tuesday helping the Clippers defeat Utah. LA rallied from 25 points to win, 121-115. George looked great in scoring 34 points in 31 minutes.

Three things about that, though.

The game was played in LA. The Clippers had lost five in a row before that victory and George still may not have his full conditioning.

The Clippers are 1-5 in their last six road games, 2-4 ATS, with their lone victory during this span coming against the lowly Pistons by four points. The Clippers lost by 12 points to the Nuggets and by 29 to the Jazz during their past two away contests.

If George isn't at peak efficiency - and it's hard to imagine he would be playing in just his second game back - the Bulls would have the three best players on the court in DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic.

Chicago is 26-10 at home. The Bulls are 23-7 ATS the past 30 times as a home favorite. They beat the Raptors by 14 points and Cavaliers by 10 during their last two home contests.

The Clippers are 16-23 on the road. They are 1-6 ATS the past seven times when facing an above .500 team.

This handicap is simple. The Hornets are playing well and have been huge money-makers on the road.

The Nets are off a big Saturday night road victory against the Heat. They are at their point spread worst as a home favorite.

Charlotte is 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in its last seven games. Among the Hornets' victories during this span are wins against the Jazz, Mavericks and Hawks. Charlotte is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 road contests.

Brooklyn has performed much better away from home. The Nets are 16-19 at home. The Hornets have a better road mark at 18-18 than Brooklyn does at home. 
The Nets are dreadful as home favorites failing to cover 22 of the past 27 times (18 percent). 

This is a bad matchup for Miami due to Kansas' height, athleticism and transition defense.

The Hurricanes thrive in transition. That's not going to happen against the Jayhawks, though.

Providence hung against Kansas in its 66-61 loss this past Friday, by getting 16 offensive rebounds. Miami doesn't have the size to do that. The Hurricanes aren't good rebounders on either side of the court ranking 311th in defensive rebounds. Kansas is plus 32 on the boards during the NCAA Tournament.

Miami will need to make its share of 3-pointers. That hasn't been happening for the Hurricanes. They are 13-of-40 from beyond the arc during the tournament.

Arkansas has knocked off outstanding teams all season, culminating with the Razorbacks taking down Gonzaga. 

All the Razorbacks do is win games - 18-3 in their last 21 - and cover spreads - 15-5-1 ATS during this span. 

I get the Mike Krzyewski narrative that things are fated for the Blue Devils to win the national championship in this Krzyewski's final season. I admit, too, that I get a little suspicious whenever I see a referee smile at Krzyewski. 

But I have to go with my numbers and matchup analysis. And it doesn't add up to the Blue Devils being favorites in this point spread range let alone favorites at all. 
I've always liked Eric Musselman. He's doing a fantastic job with Arkansas. He's certainly no slouch as a coach - and his teams cover spreads.

Duke bettors often have to deal with inflated lines. The Blue Devils have failed to cover seven of their last nine NCAA Tournament games. 

Duke is as talented as ever. The Blue Devils don't have that much experience, though. Musselman devised an effective plan to limit Gonzaga star Chet Holmgren. The Razorbacks held Holmgren to 11 points. They held the Zags to nearly 20 points below their season average.

Musselman has had a day and a half to come up with something to thwart Duke star Paolo Bachero. I trust him and I trust Arkansas' defense. 

This is my NBA March Game of the Month.

The 31-42 Knicks are back to being a bottom-feeder this season. The only way they can win is to catch an opponent in a letdown spot. That's what the Knicks did on Wednesday upsetting the Hornets. 

It's not a fluke the Timberwolves are 42-30. They are a much improved team with a lot of young talent.

But I want the Mavericks going for me in this matchup.

Dallas is trying to prevent its first three-game losing streak in more than three months following consecutive losses to the 76ers and Hornets. The Mavericks are 13-3 ATS following a loss. 

Minnesota is off a huge 138-119 home victory against the defending world champion Bucks. 

The Timberwolves defeated the Mavericks in the first meeting this season, 111-105, at home on Dec. 19. The Mavericks beat the Timberwolves, 114-102, in Dallas two days later. It was the eighth time in their last 11 visits to Dallas that the Timberwolves failed to cover.

Dallas is 23-12 at home this season. The Timberwolves are 18-18 on the road. The Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS the past six times they've been a road 'dog. 

The Timberwolves will host the Mavericks on Friday. Dallas has the history, motivation and situation to hold court today by covering this small number. 

Texas beat Kansas and Tennessee this season. The Longhorns certainly are capable of defeating Purdue.

The key is the Longhorns' ninth-ranked defense and the tremendous coaching of Chris Beard.

Purdue coach Matt Painter has gone against Beard twice in the NCAA Tournament and lost both times. Beard bested Painter when he was at Arkansas Little Rock and at Texas Tech in a Sweet 16 victory against Purdue in 2018. Beard led Texas Tech to the NCAA Tourney title game 2019 and Elite Eight in 2018.

I trust Beard to neutralize 7-foot-4 Zach Edey inside and fluster Jaden Ivey forcing him to do too much. On the offensive end, Beard's motion offense can exploit Purdue's defensive liabilities, freeing up Timmy Allen and others to get open looks. The Boilermakers rank 207th in 3-point defense.

Purdue is just 1-8-2 ATS in its last 11 games and 7-18-2 ATS the past 27 times when favored. Purdue had failed to cover in its last six games before burying an overmatched Yale squad in its first-round NCAA Tourney game.

Great upset win by New Mexico State beating Connecticut, 70-63, as a six-point 'dog on Thursday. That halted a 12-game NCAA Tourney losing streak for the Aggies and gave them their first NCAA Tourney victory in 29 years.

Teddy Allen scored 37 points to spark the Lobos. That was 13 points more than his season average. Jabari Rice averages 13.7 points. No other New Mexico State player averages even eight points a game.

Realistically the Lobos have accomplished a major goal. They not only made the NCAA Tournament, but finally won a game.

Arkansas has been a covering machine going 11-3-1 ATS (79%) in its last 15 games. The Razorbacks, however, didn't cover their opening NCAA Tourney game beating Vermont, 75-71, as a five-point favorite. Teams that won but didn't cover in their opening NCAA Tourney game are 57 percent against the spread in their second-round game during the past 229 instances.

New Mexico State still could be floating on Cloud 9 while Arkansas knows what it's like to go deep into the NCAA Tourney reaching the Elite Eight last year before losing to eventual champion Baylor.

There are many red flags waving against the Badgers in this matchup. Wisconsin is 1-8 ATS the last nine times it has been favored. The Badgers enter the tournament losers of two in a row, including a shocking home loss to Nebraska. So they are not in peak form by any means.

Johnny Davis, the Big Ten Player of the Year, was hurt against Nebraska and was terrible when he returned against Michigan State missing 16 of 19 shots from the field in Wisconsin's 69-63 loss to the Spartans in the Big Ten Conference Tournament. If Davis isn't 100 percent, the Badgers are in huge trouble.

Colgate has come on very strong winning 19 of its last 20 games, including the last 15. The unsung Raiders have the veteran savvy, scoring depth and 3-point shooting to defeat the Badgers straight-up. Colgate has made the NCAA Tournament in three of the past four years. The Raiders have five players scoring in double figures and rank No. 4 in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. Wisconsin gave up the highest percentage of open 3-point shots in the Big Ten.

The Raiders are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games. Wisconsin is overhyped right now. The line is inflated, too, because the game is in Milwaukee. But Colgate has the experience to handle that.

I thought the Mid-American Conference was strong this season. Toledo was the class of that conference going 26-7, including 17-3 in league. But the Rockets were upset in the semifinals of the MAC Tournament by Akron. So the Rockets didn't get an NCAA Tournament berth. Instead they are in the NIT.

Unfair? Probably. The key is how will the Rockets react? That's a difficult question. I do think the Rockets, though, will win this game. They catch a huge break getting to be the host team. Toledo is 13-1 at home this season. The Rockets are 12-5 ATS the past 17 times when favored.

Dayton is a slow-paced Atlantic-10 Conference team that averages 12 points fewer per game than Toledo. The Flyers are tough defensively. But they don't have the scoring to keep up with the Rockets with the game in Toledo. The Rockets are the sixth-highest scoring team in the nation at 81.5 points. They rank 16th in field goal percentage and 21st in free throw percentage. They also are 16th in the country in assist/turnover ratio.

Every year there are great spots in the NIT featuring favorites who are overpriced because they are off disappointing seasons and suffer letdowns in their first round game. 

These have been two hot, play-on teams. At this point spread range, though, I have to get involved and back Long Beach State.

All the Beach have done is go 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games. They've won eight of their last 10 games and are 20-7 ATS the past 27 times when getting points.

Santa Barbara is the No. 5 seed in this Big West Tournament. Long Beach State is the No. 1 seed.

Boston playing well. But so is Detroit except the Pistons don't get nearly the attention the Celtics do.

The Celtics are looking for their sixth consecutive victory. The Pistons are looking for their 10th straight point spread cover.

Cade Cunningham is making a spirited bid to earn Rookie of the Year honors scoring 20 or more points in his last five games.

The Pistons upset the Celtics, 112-111, at Boston on Feb. 16 as 12-point 'dogs. Now the line is even higher. That was the seventh straight time Detroit has covered against Boston.

The Celtics host the Mavericks on Sunday in a much more challenging game. So a Boston letdown/look ahead situation could exist. Even if the Celtics take this matchup seriously, the Pistons are playing well enough and the line is inflated enough to back Detroit.

A case of food poisoning and lack of defense makes Duke an unattractive favorite. The Blue Devils lost at home to North Carolina in their final regular season game and were unimpressive in an 88-79 ACC Tournament quarterfinal win against undermanned Syracuse yesterday.

This is what Duke coach Mike Kryzewski said following the Syracuse game: ''We're not playing very good defense right now. We did not against North Carolina and we did not in this game. We're missing a lot of assignments. Kryzewski also said some Duke players were dealing with food poisoning.

Miami is 9-3 ATS as an underdog this season, including upsetting Duke, 76-74, on the road in January.

It's getting to the crucial stage for the Spurs. San Antonio is in stop-the-pain mode having lost four in a row while falling 3 1/2 games out of postseason contention.

San Antonio has played nine of its last 10 games on the road, though. This is the first of seven straight home contests. They are 6-2-1 ATS the past nine times when favored.

The Lakers are off a satisfying, 124-116, home win against the Warriors this past Saturday. LeBron James scored 56 points in that game. James is a freak of nature, but he is 37. How much will he have left for this game?

Prior to defeating the Warriors, the Lakers had gone 1-7 SU, 2-5-1 ATS.

The Spurs have a solid bench and rate a huge coaching edge with Gregg Popovich.

Just because Hartford is playing in its home arena doesn't mean the Hawks should be favored against this opponent, let alone by this many points. 

Albany is 13-17. Hartford is 11-19. 

The teams split their two meetings this season. Albany beat the Hawks on the road, 71-52. Hartford got its revenge this past Tuesday defeating the Great Danes, 67-55. The Hawks shot 13 more free throws in that contest. They also made 13 of 24 3-pointers for 54 percent. Hartford shoots 37.7 percent from beyond the arc on the season. 

The Great Danes are 8-1-2 ATS in their past 11 away games. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering six of the last seven. 

UNLV has come on strong, but the Rebels still failed to finish among the top four teams in the Mountain West Conference. This is UNLV's final regular season game and last matchup before the Mountain West Conference Tournament.

It's a flat spot for the Rebels.

Not so for New Mexico, which has revenge for a 29-point loss to the Rebels earlier in the season.

The Lobos have a winning home record. The Rebels have a losing road mark.

Richmond defeated St. Bonaventure, 71-61, earlier this season. I see the Spiders repeating that performance in the rematch. Taking points is a nice bonus.

St. Bonaventure began conference play slowly before rolling off seven straight wins. However, the Bonnies' streak was snapped in brutal fashion with a 74-51 road loss to VCU this past Tuesday. The Bonnies were minus Osun Osunniyi in that game due to an ankle injury and could be missing him again in this matchup. He averages 11 points and is the Bonnies' leading rebounder.

Richmond is experienced, solid on both sides of the ball, ranks ninth nationally in turnover rate and hasn't lost two straight games since Dec. 30-Jan. 2.

The Spiders also are road tested going 14-5-1 ATS during their past 20 away games, including 8-3 ATS in their past 11. St. Bonaventure is 4-9 ATS the past 13 times against opponents with a winning record.

Campbell is the better team. Power rating-wise, I have the Fighting Camels as a mid-size favorite at a neutral site in this Big South Tournament matchup.

Presbyterian is 12-19. Campbell is 15-12.

The Fighting Camels have a far superior defense giving up fewer than 62 points per game. They rank 22nd in the nation defensively. Presbyterian is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country.

Minnesota is much improved this season. That's evident by the oddsmaker opening this game in the pick range. 

But I really want Golden State in this situation. The Warriors are coming off a frustrating, 107-101, home loss to the Mavericks from Sunday. Golden State let a 21-point lead slip in that game. Needless to say, Steve Kerr was not happy. 

The Timberwolves are off a satisfying, 127-122, road win against the Cavaliers last night. Minnesota is 0-5 ATS the past five times when playing without rest. 

This is a kill spot for Ohio State. The Buckeyes are looking for redemption after getting upset this past Sunday at Maryland.

Ohio State still has much to play for trying to secure a top-four seed into the Big Ten Tournament and the bye into the quarterfinals that goes with it. The Buckeyes are 12-1 at home this season, including 8-1 in the Big Ten. They also are 8-2 ATS following a point spread loss.

Nebraska has been bad again this season going 8-21 with a 2-16 Big Ten record. The Cornhuskers, though, are in a rare flat spot having stunned Penn State as a 10 1/2-point road 'dog, 93-70, this past Sunday.

San Diego State has the No. 2 defense in the country. I have great respect for the Aztecs. But I'm not buying Wyoming as a home underdog.

The Cowboys have won all 14 of their home games this season. They have the two best players on the court in Graham Ike and Hunter Maldonado. Wyoming averages nearly 10 more points per game than San Diego State and also has a respectable defense giving up 65.6 points, which ranks 74th, and is 24th in 3-point defense.

Wyoming is 23-5 overall and 12-3 in the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State is 18-7 overall and 10-4 in the Mountain West.

The Cowboys are proven, too, against good competition going 22-8-1 ATS versus opponents with a winning record.

Barring winning the Pac-12 Conference Tournament, Colorado won't be going to the NCAA Tournament. So this revenge spot is the Buffaloes' game of the year.
It didn't show in the first meeting because the Buffaloes missed 15 of their 20 3-point shots in a 21-point loss, but Colorado can hang within single digits of Arizona based on their size and home situation. 

The Wildcats have a bigger game on deck playing at USC. 

Colorado has been playing well with five victories in its last six games. This is the Buffaloes' final home game of the season so it's senior night. This has been a home team series with the host covering six of the last seven times.
 
The Buffaloes normally shoot much better from beyond the arch than they did during the first meeting. Arizona is just average defending against the 3-pointer. 

San Diego State is in fourth place in the Mountain West Conference. The Aztecs just lost to first-place Boise State by one point this past Tuesday. The Aztecs have second-place Wyoming on deck following this opponent - San Jose State.

San Jose State is last in the conference.

So San Diego State can't be blamed if they take the Spartans for granted while in the middle of a conference sandwich.

The Aztecs haven't been good lately in this role. They've been favored by 14 points or more three times in their past six games. They are 0-3 ATS in those games.

The Aztecs' 0-3 ATS mark laying big points isn't a fluke. San Diego State plays great defense, but only averages 65.1 points a game. That ranks 306th.

San Jose State hung in during the first meeting between the two teams losing, 72-62, on Feb. 9 as a 17-point home 'dog.

The Spartans should be loose and confident having upset New Mexico, 71-55, as a 5 1/2-point home 'dog during their previous game. That snapped a 14-game losing streak. The Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and have covered in five of their past six road contests.

Northern Arizona isn't very good at 9-18. But 6-20 Idaho State is downright terrible. I find this a short number to lay with the Lumberjacks at home.

Idaho State ranks 326th in scoring at 64.2 points a game. The Bengals are just as bad defensively ranking 340th in defensive field goal percentage.

The Lumberjacks have covered six of their last eight games.

Chattanooga rolled past East Tennessee State, 82-52, as a 7 1/2-point home favorite on Dec. 31.

The Mocs may not win by 30 points again, but they still should easily win this game.

Chattanooga is the top team in the Southern Conference with a 22-7 overall record and 12-4 league mark. East Tennessee State ranks eighth out of 10 teams in the Southern Conference with a 6-10 league mark. The Buccaneers are under .500 on the season overall.

The Mocs are 21-5-1 ATS the past 27 times playing a below .500 opponent. They also have covered 67 percent of their last 55 road games. The Mocs are 5-1 in their last six road contests.

Chattanooga clearly is superior to the Buccaneers outscoring them per game while giving up an average of eight fewer points a game.

The Buccaneers have revenge and senior night playing in their final home game of the season. But Chattanooga isn't going to lack motivation. The Mocs are on a rare two-game losing skid falling twice at home as big favorites during their past two games. They haven't lost three in a row all season. Chattanooga is 20-7-1 ATS after not covering the spread in its previous game.

East Tennessee State defeated The Citadel in its last game. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread six of the past seven times following a victory.

I'll willingly accept this many points with a desperate Michigan State and Tom Izzo. The Spartans are 1-4 in their last five games. They are 8-3 ATS following a loss.

Iowa, in contrast to Michigan State, has won four of its last five. The Hawkeyes are averaging 90.5 points in their last five games.

This has contributed to an inflated line, though.

Points and possessions matter in the rugged Big Ten. The Spartans haven't been an underdog of more than three points in any of their 15 Big Ten games. The Hawkeyes aren't that much better than the Spartans - if they are even better at all.

I don't trust Penn State's weak offense, nor do I trust the Nittany Lions on the road.

Penn State ranks 306th in scoring. Maryland averages five more points per game than the Nittany Lions.

The Terrapins hold a backcourt edge with Eric Ayala and Fatts Russell, both of whom average more points than any player on Penn State.

The Nittany Lions are 1-6 in their Big Ten Conference road games. They have lost their last five away Big Ten matchups.

Maryland has looked good recently. The Terrapins nearly upset Purdue on the road two games ago falling by one point. Maryland then buried Nebraska, 90-74, in its last game hitting 52 percent from the floor while turning the ball over just four times.

The Terrapins have proven themselves at home knocking off Illinois there and losing to Wisconsin by only one point.

Can the Wolverines win road games against Iowa and Wisconsin in a span of four days? I say no.

Michigan upset the Hawkeyes this past Thursday, 84-79. Now, though, the Wolverines draw the 15th-ranked Badgers also on the road.

Wisconsin gives up the fewest turnovers in the nation at 8.6. The Badgers' traditionally strong defense is coming on, too, giving up an average of 63.2 points during the last four games.

Michigan has faced five ranked teams this season - and lost four of those five games.

Kent State is an upper level Mid-American Conference team. But Ohio leads the MAC and is better than the Golden Flashes. So I'm not buying Kent State opening as the favorite.

The Bobcats are 22-4, including 8-3 on the road. They have a better road mark than Kent State's home record. The Golden Flashes are 16-9, 8-4 at home.

Ohio took care of Kent State, 80-72, back on Jan. 7. Bobcats star Mark Sears had a big game with 28 points on 9-of-15 shooting from the floor while grabbing six rebounds and dishing off three assists.

Sears averages 20.1 points, which ranks in the top 20 in the country. He's a tremendous shooter. Ohio ranks 15th in the country in turnover margin and first in the MAC at plus 4.23.

Kent State can't match Sears, nor Ohio's ball protection.

Ohio is ranked 87th in the latest NET rankings. Kent State is ranked 140th.

After suffering their worst loss in seven years losing by 48 points to the Celtics this past Tuesday, I see the 76ers coming out super intense against Milwaukee.

I don't see another Fresno State loss happening here with the Bulldogs home to the Rebels, who are 3-8 ATS during their past 11 road contests. Fresno State has covered nine of its last 11 home games. 

UNLV has been hot from beyond the arc lately. Don't look for that to continue, though, against a Fresno State defense that ranks fifth in the nation allowing only 57.9 points. 

The Bulldogs shoot better from the floor than the Rebels and also are the superior free throw shooting team. Fresno State beat UNLV, 73-68, at UNLV on Jan. 14. That was the seventh time in the last 10 meetings the Bulldogs have defeated the Rebels. 

These teams met on Jan. 17. Hofstra was an eight-point home favorite and beat Drexel, 71-68. Hofstra is the fourth-best free throw shooting team in the nation at 80 percent. The Pride shot just 10 free throws in that game and also made only 4 of 16 3-pointers.

Hofstra is 14-9 and in third place in the Colonial Athletic Association at 7-4. Drexel is 11-10 and 6-5 in the CAA.

There is a point spread difference of around 10 points in this game compared to the earlier meeting. Hofstra is the better team so I'm attracted to taking this many points.

The Pride just defeated UNC-Wilmington in its last game three days ago. Drexel went against Wilmington on Jan. 31 and lost, 70-63.

Cleveland may appear to be in better current form than the Spurs. But the Spurs have played a much more difficult schedule recently and are in an excellent situational spot here.

San Antonio defeated Houston in its last game. That was this past Friday. The Spurs were 1-4 entering that matchup. But their previous five opponents were the Heat, Warriors, Suns, Bulls and Grizzlies.

Cleveland is 6-2 in its last eight games. The Cavaliers' last five games, though, have come against weak opponents - Pacers, Hornets, Rockets, Pelicans and Pistons.

The Cavaliers acquired Caris LeVert, but still may be without underrated Darius Garland, who has missed the last four games because of a sore back.

The Spurs will be playing for the first time in five days. That's more than ample time for Gregg Popovich to come up with a strong game plan for this specific opponent not to mention ensure a lot of energy from the Spurs. San Antonio is 18-8 ATS the past 26 times when playing on 3 or more days rest for a long-term mark of 69 percent.

San Antonio also has covered nine of the last 13 times it has been a road 'dog. Cleveland is 1-6 ATS the last seven times it has been favored.

Both Utah State and Wyoming are playing well. But the Cowboys are the superior team and are at home with a short point spread.

Wyoming is a perfect 10-0 at home. The Cowboys have outscored opponents by an average of 20.3 points at home.

The Cowboys average 84.1 points at home. That's 12 points higher than what Utah State averages on the road.

The Aggies have won five in a row so perhaps that's why the spread is shorter than I anticipated. However, four of those victories were achieved at home. The Aggies also played some weak competition during this time frame posting wins against UNLV, San Jose State and Air Force.

Utah State has a losing road mark.

Wyoming is 10-1 in its last 11 games and 19-3 overall. The Cowboys trail Boise State by one-half game for the top spot in the Mountain West Conference. They can't afford a loss here especially following their tremendous, 61-59, road upset win against Fresno State this past Sunday night.

The Cowboys feature two of the best players in the conference, Graham Ike and Hunter Maldonado.

These are two of the best teams in the Mountain West Conference. Fresno State has the sixth-best defense in the country.

But Wyoming is the more complete team. Fresno State also is coming off two easy matchups.

The Cowboys have won nine of their last 10 games. They are 26-9 ATS in their last 35 road games, including covering the past four. This has been a road team series with the visitor going 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times.

Wyoming averages nearly 10 more points pre game than Fresno State. The Bulldogs have one of the best players in the conference, Orlando Robinson. But Wyoming has two of the three best players on the court in Graham Ike and Hunter Maldonado.

I find this to be a buy-low spot on the Trail Blazers following Portland's, 96-93, home loss to the lowly Thunder last night. 

There aren't many easy games in the Big 12 Conference. And this one isn't going to be easy for Texas Tech especially after the Red Raiders won an emotional, 77-64, home game against 23rd-ranked Texas this past Tuesday.

West Virginia is in a desperate situation with six straight losses and possibly missing its best player, point guard Taz Sherman. He's in concussion protocol and questionable for this game.

With or without Sherman, though, I like West Virginia in this spot.

The Mountaineers played well in their last game, an 81-77 road loss to Baylor this past Monday. They shot a season-best 54.2 percent from the field. Look for the Mountaineers to give Texas Tech their best punch. I doubt the Red Raiders can produce another ''A'' game after beating Texas.

Should be a great game: Ohio at Toledo to decide the Mid-American Conference and No. 1 conference tournament seed.

That game, though, is Tuesday. Before that Toledo is being asked to cover what I see as an inflated road number against Ball State.

The Rockets have won nine in a row. But this definitely is a look-ahead spot for them, which could produce a flat effort.

Ball State had won and covered three in a row until getting buried by Ohio in its last game. The Cardinals average a healthy 74 points a game.

The Cardinals have covered eight of their last 11 games. The Rockets have allowed 173 3-point field goals. Ball State has made 180 3-pointers, ranking 69th in 3-point accuracy.

The combination of their 3-point shooting, home-court and catching Toledo in a flat spot should mean a cover for the Cardinals.

I really hope Dejounte Murray plays. But even if he doesn't the Spurs have enough depth and a huge edge in coaching to cover this short number against the Rockets. San Antonio is in stop-the-pain mode losers of three in a row.

The Rockets enter San Antonio fat and happy after a 115-104 home victory against Cleveland this past Wednesday. Houston has lost its previous four games.

The Rockets are 6-17 ATS the past 23 times as a 'dog. They are 2-6-1 ATS during their past nine meetings against the Spurs.

Houston was no match for San Antonio when the teams just met on Jan. 25. The Spurs buried the Rockets, 134-104, dominating the paint with 82 points.

Every point figures to matter in this matchup of elite defenses. Texas has the No. 1 defense in the nation holding foes to 54.5 points. Defense is a Chris Beard trademark as Texas Tech well knows about its former coach. The Red Raiders allow the 19th-fewest points in the country. 

So I'm attracted to the road 'dog receiving this many points. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering eight of the last 11 times. 

I trust Beard's defense and the Longhorns' motion offense to find some open looks from 3-point range. I also trust the Longhorns to control their turnover count facing Texas Tech's full-court pressure. 

It comes down to what should be a low-scoring matchup, as the oddsmaker anticipates, where Texas definitely can stay within two possessions. 

The teams just met 10 days ago in Golden State. The Rockets nearly pulled the upset losing, 105-103.

That victory was the start of a five-game win streak for the Warriors. Golden State has won three of those games by a total of eight points.

The Warriors are off a big emotional win against the Nets from two days ago. They are at the Spurs on Tuesday in a revenge spot.

So this looms as a potential flat spot for the Warriors, who remain without Draymond Green.

Houston only has played twice since losing to the Warriors 10 days ago. The Rockets' last game was this past Friday. That should ensure a rested, full effort and an added bonus if Kevin Porter Jr. and Christian Wood are able to return to the lineup.

Notre Dame is hot, winning nine of its last 10 games. But Virginia is just the team to beat the Irish.

The Cavaliers are a bad matchup for Notre Dame as evidenced by Virginia defeating the Irish 16 of 18 times in the series, including the past six times.

Notre Dame relies on its perimeter shooting especially from long range. The Irish rank 27th in 3-point percentage. Notre Dame is very much a rhythm team.

Virginia disrupts that rhythm. No team plays slower than the Cavaliers. Virginia's defense is at its best clamping down on open shots, especially catch-and-shoot 3-point shots like Notre Dame likes to launch.

On the flip side, Virginia guards Kihei Clark and Reece Beekman are adept at patiently beating half-court sets. Given four days to prepare, Virginia's elite coach Tony Bennett should have an excellent game plan.

Virginia is 5-3 SU and ATS in its last eight road/neutral site games. Notre Dame is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 home games versus foes who have an above .500 road mark.

Kudos to the Clippers for coming back from a 35-point deficit against the Wizards to pull out a victory three days ago. That was the second-largest comeback in NBA history. 

Kudos again to the Clippers to beat the Magic two days ago in an obvious letdown spot after trailing by 14 points against Orlando. 

Now, though, the Clippers step way up in class against the team with the best record in the Eastern Conference - Miami. The Heat are 17-5 at home this season. They have covered nine of their last 11 games. 

LA is 10-13 on the road even with its consecutive away victories versus the Wizards and Magic. This marks the Clippers' third game in four days and sixth road game in 10 days. 

The Heat have taken off now that Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro are back in the lineup joining Jimmy Butler. The Clippers are missing their two best players, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Also out is their third-leading scorer, Marcus Morris. 

I see a double-digit Heat victory. 

Penny Hardaway was one of my favorite NBA players when he played for the Orlando Magic. But as a head college basketball coach, Hardaway has to rank among the bottom 10. He actually could be in the argument as the worst coach.

Yes Hardaway's Memphis team has had injuries. But the Tigers have underachieved so much they may not even make the NCAA Tournament. Memphis 5-12-1 ATS on the season. The Tigers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games.

Until beating Tulsa in their last game, the Tigers had lost three in a row.

East Carolina is off an embarrassing, 79-36, road loss to Houston this past Saturday. I find this line inflated because of that loss.

Before that defeat to the Cougars, East Carolina had lost in overtime as an underdog to Central Florida and upset Memphis, 72-71, as a 7-point home 'dog. That was less than two weeks ago. Memphis shot 50 percent from the floor in that game while East Carolina made 40 percent of its field goals. Yet the Pirates still pulled it out.

The Pirates may be without third-leading scorer Brandon Suggs, who scored the game-winner against Memphis in the first meeting. The Tigers, though, are far more banged-up. They will be without their leading scorer, Deandre Williams, and likely NBA lottery pick and leading team rebounder Jalen Duren. He is questionable with a hand injury. Also out are Landers Nolley II and Jayden Hardaway. Nolley leads the Tigers in assists.

No player is performing better lately than Joel Embiid, who has scored at least 38 points and pulled down 12 rebounds in four straight games. The 76ers catch the Lakers playing their fourth road game in six days.

The Lakers welcomed Anthony Davis back with a 106-96 victory against the Nets two days ago. Davis, though, is working his way into the lineup. I don't see the Lakers being able to sustain that momentum against this tough opponent. LA is 7-20 AT following a cover.

The Lakers are 2-1 on their current road trip having opened with a victory against the Magic, However, during their previous four away contests the Lakers lost to the Heat by six points, were blown out by the Nuggets by 37 points, lost to the Kings by nine and fell to the Grizzlies by five points.

The Kings should be fired-up after being embarrassed, 128-75, by the Celtics last night. The Kings ended up playing all 13 of their rostered players. No Sacramento player reached the 30-minute mark. So fatigue should not be a factor. 

Prior to that loss to the Celtics, the Kings had gone a respectable 2-4 with their four defeats occurring by a combined 15 points, which is less than four a game. 
Atlanta is in a fat and happy mood, winners of four in a row, including a blowout of the Hornets on the road in their last game four days ago. The Hawks' intensity level could be down here.

The Hawks have not been good as home favorites either, failing to cover 11 of the last 14 times in that role.

There's a chance the Kings get back injured De'Aaron Fox, who I consider their best player. He's been out two games with a sore left ankle. It's a nice bonus if Fox plays, but I'm not counting on that. 

New Orleans has been strong at home winning and covering seven of its last nine. The Pelicans catch a schedule break here hosting a short-handed and tired Indiana squad that is concluding a five-game road trip.

The Pacers are playing for the fifth time in eight days. They are minus their two best players with Domantas Sabonis and Malcolmb Brogdon both out. They've been without Caris LeVert, maybe their third-best player, too. He's questionable. 

Those are Indiana's top three scorers. The Pelicans have held five of their last seven opponents to 105 points or fewer. 

New Orleans enters this home matchup on a winning note beating the Knicks, 102-91, this past Thursday in New York. That was a big confidence builder for the Pelicans after they were blown out during the first two games of their road trip by the Nets and Celtics.
 
The Pelicans have been idle since that game giving them three full days of rest and preparation. The extra time also may allow Brandon Ingram to play. He's questionable after turning his ankle against the Knicks. 

Even if Ingram is out, I still like the Pelicans. 

Do you really think the Rams can beat the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers at home traveling cross-country on a short week having just played this past Monday night?

I don't and I'm willing to lay a field goal to back that opinion.

Free of the Lions, Matthew Stafford picked up his first playoff victory knocking off a slumping Cardinals team that hadn't been good since late October. Tom Brady, by comparison, has 35 postseason victories. He's won 21 of his 25 home playoff games.

The Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS as home chalk. They are 8-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of 19.3 points. The Rams are 2-5 ATS versus above .500 opponents.

Brady doesn't have reliable Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown anymore. But he still has a deep wide receiving corps, a rejuvenated Rob Gronkowski and could be getting his two best running backs in Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones.

The Rams' defensive line has come on strong. Aaron Donald is a force. But they have holes in their secondary. Losing safety Jordan Fuller late in the season is a key injury. If the Rams have to trot out 38-year-old formerly retired Eric Weddle they're in trouble.

The Buccaneers' defense is back to being formidable with the return to health of linebackers Lavonte David, Shaquil Barrett and edge pass rusher Jason Pierre-Paul.

These are two of the top 14 teams in the nation, according to the latest The Associated Press rankings. But we're getting a buy-low spot on Michigan State since the Spartans were upset by Northwestern at home in their last game this past Saturday, while the Badgers just defeated Northwestern, 82-76, three days ago.

Michigan State had won nine in a row prior to losing to the Wildcats. Wisconsin is riding a seven-game win streak.

The Badgers are playing extremely well. But the Spartans should never be underestimated. They are 8-2 in their last 10 games against Wisconsin. The Badgers nipped the Spartans, 64-63, at home last season. Michigan State is 7-3-1 ATS versus foes that have a winning percentage above .600.

Both teams give up less than 66 points a game. The Spartans rank 30th in defensive field goal percentage, though, while Wisconsin is 217th.

I see Michigan State winning this game so getting this many points is a nice bonus.

The oddsmaker is downgrading the Knicks because they've lost two straight home games, sleepwalking through a loss to the Hornets during an early start on Martin Luther King Day and then blowing a late lead in a 112-110 loss to the much improved Timberwolves on Tuesday.

Prior to those defeats, though, New York had won five consecutive games at Madison Square Garden with the last two being blowout wins against the Mavericks and Spurs.

The Pelicans are a drop in class for New York. The Knicks are a much stronger defensive club than New Orleans giving up six fewer points per game.

New Orleans is 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS in its last five road contests. The Pelicans are averaging under 100 points during their last three games.

I don't think the Knicks should be a home 'dog to the Timberwolves. New York couldn't get awake for yesterday's early-start Martin Luther King home game against the Hornets losing by 10 points after trailing by as many as 23 points.

 Look for the Knicks to be more awake for this game after Monday's embarrassment.  Prior to that loss to the Hornets, the Knicks had won five straight at Madison Square Garden with the last two being blowout victories against the Mavericks and Spurs.  The Timberwolves are looking good to the oddsmaker right now because they just rolled past the short-handed Warriors, 119-99, at home this past Sunday night. Keep in mind, though, that before that victory Minnesota had lost and failed to cover consecutive road games against the Pelicans and Grizzlies.

The Cardinals lost their edge with a late October Thursday night home loss to the Packers. They have yet to regain it and I don't see that changing in this matchup. 
Arizona is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games. The Cardinals' defense has been below par the second half of the season. Their secondary has given up 14 TD passes with just one interception during the last five games. 

Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, who had a superstar season, can take advantage. Stafford threw for a career-high 41 TD passes in his first year with Rams offensive guru coach Sean McVay while Kupp led the NFL in receptions, receiving yards and receiving TD's, emerging as the top wide receiver in the NFL. Stafford had no problem in two games against the Cardinals this season, completing 69 percent for 567 yards and a 5-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

The Rams are going to get their points here. I don't see the Cardinals keeping up. I give a huge plus to Aaron Donald and a Rams defense line that is peaking against an Arizona offensive line that has sprung leaks and doesn't have a quality healthy running back left. 

This puts tremendous pressure on Kyler Murray, who hasn't been the same dominant force he was earlier in the season before missing four games. Minus superstar wide receiver and security blanket DeAndre Hopkins, the Cardinals are far less dangerous through the air and in the red zone. Arizona's offense mainly consists of a bunch of 5-yard passes for Murray, which isn't going to get the job done. 

McVay is 5-1 against Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury. During these six meetings the Rams have held Murray in check. Murray's averaged 233.2 passing yards, 6.8 yards per attempt with eight all-purpose TD's and nine turnovers along with being sacked 18 times. 

I rate the Buccaneers two levels higher than the Eagles. Given home field advantage and having more playoff experience, the Buccaneers should win this game handily.

Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl last season. The Buccaneers could be even better this season. They set a franchise record with 13 victories. Tom Brady had one of his greatest seasons, which really says a lot given how many outstanding years he's had. Brady passed for 5,316 yards - third most in NFL history - and set a Tampa Bay record with 43 TD passes.

The Eagles are not battle tested. They've met only three teams at .500 or above since November and went 1-2 SU and ATS against them. The Eagles went 1-6 ATS on the season when they faced above .500 opponents. Nick Sirianni is in his first season as Eagles head coach. Second-year QB Jalen Hurts has never been in a playoff game. He also is dealing with an ankle injury.

Philadelphia led the NFL in rushing. But Tampa Bay has been one of the best run defenses for the past three seasons. Hurts is a better runner than thrower.

The Buccaneers built a 28-7 lead against the Eagles in their earlier matchup this season. The Eagles scored a couple of late TD's to make the final a respectable, but misleading 28-22. The game closed with Brady taking a knee inside the Eagles' 10-yard line.

The Eagles have been huge money-burners when getting points going 3-14 ATS the last 17 times as an underdog.

The timing is right to buy low on the Spurs in this home spot. San Antonio is in circle-the-wagons mode saddled with a four-game losing streak. The Spurs are off a 128-124 loss to the Rockets two days ago, which opened their seven-game homestand. 

Dejounte Murray could be the most underrated player in the NBA. The Spurs certainly are capable of winning this game straight-up. There's the chance their rotation could be bolstered if Derrick White and Doug McDermott return today from COVID-19 protocol. 

The Cavaliers are much improved. But they are far from elite. Their 111-91 victory against Utah on Wednesday comes with an asterisk as the Jazz were missing several players, including their star center and key to their team, Rudy Gobert. 

This marks Cleveland's fifth road game in eight days. The Cavaliers close their road trip tomorrow at Oklahoma City.

The Cavaliers had opened their road swing beating shorthanded Portland. They then lost by 14 to the Warriors, nipped the lowly Kings by one point before knocking off Utah. Cleveland is 4-5 in its last nine games, 2-6-1 ATS. 

Marquette isn't as bad as it looked early in the Big East Conference, but the Golden Eagles aren't as good as their recent performances - blowout victories against Georgetown and Providence - may indicate.

On the flip side, DePaul isn't as bad as its four-game losing streak may appear. The Blue Demons have lost their last two games to Villanova and St. John's. Certainly no shame in that.

Overall, DePaul is 9-5 while Marquette is 10-6.

So there's line value with DePaul. The Blue Demons also match up well to Marquette because of their height and superior rebounding. The Golden Eagles give up a lot of easy inside shots. The Blue Demons are the 17th-best offensive rebounding team in the nation.

The Golden Eagles can't get anything going in transition without controlling the boards.

Marquette hasn't been good as chalk either, failing to cover 13 of the last 18 times when favored.

The stage and pressure is too much for the Raiders with a chance to reach the playoffs for only the second time in 19 years.

I give checkmarks to the Chargers in nearly every category with a major one at QB with Justin Herbert, who already has set a Chargers franchise record with 35 TD passes this season.

The Chargers' secondary is healthy for one of the rare times this season and underrated run-stuffer Justin Jones also has returned to the lineup.

Special teams have been a weakness for the Chargers. But that area was shored up in late October with the signings of kicker Dustin Hopkins and kick/punt returner Andre Roberts. Hopkins is 17-for-18 in field goals. Roberts leads the league in yards per kickoff return.

Kudos to the Heat for beating the Trail Blazers, 115-109, this past Wednesday in their last game.

However, I don't see the Heat keeping up with the Suns today. This is Miami's fifth of a six-game road trip and the team has 12 players on its illness/injury report list, including Jimmy Butler.

Meanwhile the Suns are expected to get reinforced with Deandre Ayton, Jae Crowder and JaVale McGee. All are off the COVID-19 list. Ayton is the Suns' leading rebounder and No. 2 scorer.

The Suns own the best record in the NBA at 30-8. They are playing well with three straight wins and covers, winning by an average of 22 points during this span. The Suns shouldn't lack intensity since they won't play again until Tuesday and won't be home again until Jan. 22.

Northern Iowa has looked good in its last two games, blowout victories against Evansville and Valparaiso.

The Panthers have the outside shooting, especially from 3-point range, to hang tight with high-scoring Missouri State, which has a below average 3-point defense.

Northern Iowa has dominated the series winning eight of the last 10 meetings, including six of the past seven.

The Panthers have the frontcourt size to win the rebounding battle, which would prove pivotal.

Butler is being too undervalued here after looking bad during the second half of its, 71-56, home loss to Seton Hall this past Tuesday.

The 'dog has covered four of the past five times in this series.

Xavier has to deal with a rust factor having not played since Dec. 21. Butler is the 31st-ranked defensive team in the country.

This figures to be a low-possession type game where every point matters. That's evident by the low total. I can't see Xavier producing an ''A'' game, which will be needed to cover this mispriced point spread.

The dynamics are in place for Indiana to beat Ohio State in this marquee Big Ten matchup.

The Hooisers are home following a 61-58 road loss to Penn State this past Sunday. Indiana is 9-0 at Assembly Hall with seven of those victories occurring by double-digits.

Ohio State got past Nebraska, 87-79, in overtime this past Sunday. That was the Buckeyes' first game since Dec. 11 because of COVID-19 issues. Indiana is a bad matchup for Ohio State at this stage of the Buckeyes' season as they try to round back into shape.

Indiana has a size advantage and should control the boards especially if Kyle Young, the Buckeyes' top defensive rebounder, can't play after missing the Nebraska game due to illness not related to COVID.

I'm expecting a good performance from the Pelicans here now that their two best players, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas, have returned to the lineup. Both played last night in a 115-104 home loss to the Jazz. Each was rusty, not shooting well. The rust should be off now.

The Suns have COVID issues. They could be minus coach Monty Williams along with starters Deandre Ayton - their best big man - and underrated Jae Crowder. Two backups could be out, too. Williams, Ayton and Crowder all missed the Suns' last game, a 133-99 road win against Charlotte.

The Pelicans are prepared for this step up in class having faced the Cavaliers, Bucks and Jazz during their last three games. New Orleans is 7-3 ATS as a home 'dog.

The Nuggets, like most NBA teams, are dealing with COVID issues. But they still have Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon just returned to the lineup following a hamstring injury. Denver also catches Dallas in a vulnerable spot.

So I'm going to go ahead and take the points with the road 'dog.

The Mavericks got Luka Doncic back in their 95-86 road win against the Thunder on Sunday. Doncic had missed 10 games. He was playing for the first time in 23 days, logging 31 minutes wearing a knee brace. Not surprisingly, he felt sore after the game. So Mavs coach Jason Kidd has to be careful how he uses Doncic in this back-to-back spot.

The Nuggets are the more rested team. This is their second game in six days. Dallas is in action for the fifth time in eight days. The Mavericks just concluded a five-game road trip so their concentration level could be off returning home following the holidays. Dallas hasn't been a good spread home team failing to cover in 14 of its last 20 home games.

Aaron Rodgers is making a strong case to repeat as MVP throwing for 16 TD passes without an interception in his last five games. This includes a four-touchdown, 385-yard passing game against the Vikings. The Vikings pulled that game out, 34-31, as Kirk Cousins nearly matched Rodgers.

Now Cousins is out due to COVID. The line has skyrocketed because of that to where the Packers are laying two TD's instead of one. 

Minnesota has played close games every week. But that was with Cousins. The Vikings aren't going to be able to keep up with Rodgers now that Sean Mannion will be their quarterback. Minnesota also is without its second best receiver, Adam Thielen. 

The Vikings' defense has been disappointing a second straight season giving up 30.4 points in their last five games. The revenge-minded Packers are going to put up their share of points here. 

I consider Mannion a stiff. I don't see him being able to elevate the Vikings, who have morale issues because of Cousins. Mike Zimmer has lost much of his luster, too. He could be on the way out. 

The Raptors were one of many NBA teams ravaged by COVID. But now they should be back at nearly full strength getting back Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby and Scottie Barnes. That's a combined scoring mark of nearly 55 points. These key cogs will join Pascal Siakam, Gary Trent Jr. and Malachi Flynn, who returned in the Raptors' last game three days ago, a 114-109 home loss to the 76ers.

The Raptors are rejuvenated now and should be sky high being home to take on the Clippers, who are in a flat spot after beating the Celtics, 91-82, on the road two days ago. The Clippers are 2-8 ATS following a point spread cover. The Clippers are minus their two best players with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George both out. They also are missing Nicholas Batum and possibly Reggie Jackson.

The Clippers have yet to get it together this season. They were 1-5 before upsetting the Celtics.

I see a class difference of more than a touchdown here. Current form counts for something, too.

The Badgers went 7-1 down the stretch. They led the nation in total defense and were sixth in scoring defense surrendering 16.4 points per game. 
Arizona State went 3-3 in its last six games, 2-4 ATS. The Sun Devils' only win against a Bowl team was against UCLA. Wisconsin posted victories over Bowl teams Purdue by 17 points and 20 against Iowa. 

The Sun Devils are 96th in passing offense. Their QB, Jayden Daniels, hasn't lived up to lofty expectations. 

The game is in Las Vegas. But Arizona State won't have a crowd advantage because the Badgers travel extremely well with tremendous fan support. 

Opt-outs and transfers can greatly impact a bowl game. We saw it happen with Nevada in the Quick Lane Bowl on Monday when Western Michigan blew out the Wolf Pack, 52-24. Nevada was missing its star QB plus all of its best receivers. 

Oregon is down around 30 scholarship players, including star defensive lineman Kayvon Thibodeaux. The Ducks did not look good down the stretch either losing a pair of games to Utah by the combined score of 76-17. 

Oklahoma is a top-12 team in scoring and yards. I much prefer Sooners freshman QB Caleb Williams to the Ducks' inconsistent signal-caller, Anthony Brown. Williams took the starting job away from Spencer Rattler, who was considered a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender before the season. Williams threw for 1,670 yards with an 18-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

The game is being played in San Antonio, Texas. That's a plus for Oklahoma, which is the closer school and should have a higher fan turnout. 

Both teams are 7-7. But I consider the Broncos to be the superior team. I like the Broncos' defense, coaching, running backs and wide receivers better than the Raiders. I also give Denver a checkmark at tight end if Darren Waller has to miss another week.

Denver has held opponents to 17 points or fewer in six of its last eight games. The Raiders have managed 16 points or fewer in six of their last seven games. Hunter Renfroe has emerged as the Raiders' most productive offensive player. He does his damage from the slot. However, the Broncos get back cornerback Bryce Callahan this week from a knee injury. He's one of the better slot coverage corners. He gives the Broncos a strong secondary to go with cornerback Patrick Surtain and safety Justin Simmons.

Drew Lock is going to start for injured Teddy Bridgewater. I welcome that change from a Denver standpoint. Lock doesn't have Bridgewater's accuracy, but he's more of a downfield threat. He is better equipped to take advantage of the Broncos many receiving weapons, which include Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and Noah Fant. Lock has been turnover-prone in the past. The Raiders, though, have a league-low five interceptions, only three by their cornerbacks. The Raiders' secondary also is dealing with COVID-19 and injuries. Safety Jonathan Abram is out for the season.

I also give the Broncos a strong running back edge with Melvin Gordon and good-looking rookie Javonte Williams. They can take the pressure off Lock. The Raiders have only eight sacks in their last six games.

I want the Titans going for me in a Thursday night home underdog role desperately needing a victory. The Titans have cobbled together a serviceable ground attack without Derrick Henry and they're getting back their two best wide receivers, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones.

That's huge for Ryan Tannehill, who has suffered without his two top targets. The 49ers are banged-up in the secondary. They also will be missing their leading rusher, Elijah Mitchell.

San Francisco is ground-oriented. The 49ers set up the pass via running the ball. The Titans, however, rank No. 2 in run defense. Tennessee has improved very much defensively. Discounting giving up 36 points to the Patriots, the Titans have held their past five opponents to an average of 15.6 points. They just held the Steelers to 168 total yards last week. That was the least amount of yards Tennessee has permitted in 11 years.

The 49ers are on a nice roll, but I don't consider them an elite NFC team worthy of beating a similar-caliber AFC team.

This is the revenge game of the year for Oklahoma City. The Grizzlies broke an NBA record for largest victory margin when they buried the Thunder, 152-179, at home on Dec. 2.

The Thunder surely will be highly motivated. They have some confidence, too, after nipping the Clippers, 104-103, this past Saturday. Lugentz Dort, one of the more underrated players in the league, is back for the Thunder after being out with an ankle injury. 

Oklahoma City is 8-2 ATS the last 10 times as an underdog. 

Memphis could be coming back to earth after falling, 105-100, to the Trail Blazers on Sunday. The Grizzlies were 10-1 going into that game. Memphis still is without injured Ja Morant. This will be the Grizzlies' fourth game in six days, too. So there's a fatigue issue with them.

No team has been worse as a big home favorite than the 49ers under Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco has failed to cover the last 10 times they've been home chalk when laying 5 or more points. All together, they are 4-15-1 ATS in this role.

The Falcons have been at their best on the road winning six of eight games away from Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Cordarrelle Patterson has emerged this season as a rushing/receiver threat rather than just a dangerous kick returner. His presence relieves much of the pressure on Matt Ryan to have to win this game himself. The Falcons' ground game has picked up thanks to Patterson, averaging 132.6 rushing yards the past three games.

Atlanta remains in the playoff hunt so a hard effort should be a given.

San Francisco has been hard hit by injuries in the secondary and at running back. The 49ers are ground-oriented with a game-manager type QB in Jimmy Garoppolo. They are not geared to covering big margins like this.

This line originally was set too low because Fresno State was going to be without its coach, Kalen DeBoer, and star QB, Jake Haener. DeBoer is headed to Washington to take over the Huskies' program. But Haener isn't going with him as originally thought. 

Haener has decided to stay at Fresno State and not transfer after the Bulldogs named highly-respected QB guru Jeff Tedford as their new head coach replacing DeBoer.

The Bulldogs are far more talented than UTEP, strong on both sides of the ball. Talent-wise, the Bulldogs are easily two TD's better than the Miners. Motivation is a key. UTEP will have it playing in-state and not having been to a bowl since 2014. 

Fresno State went 9-3. The Bulldogs were hoping to land a bigger bowl spot. But now that Tedford is their coach, I believe the Bulldogs will produce a strong effort as they have many returning starters. They won't want to embarrass interim coach Les Marks knowing Tedford will be closely following things. So that motivation angle is heavily reduced. Fresno State also has more bowl experience. 

Fresno State has a balanced attack with several good running backs. Haener is one of the better QB's on the West Coast. He passed for 3,810 yards and 32 TD passes. He has a pro caliber wideout in Jaylen Cropper. Haener's passing efficiency mark of 158.1 was the best in the Mountain West Conference and 15th best in the nation. 
UTEP was respectable on defense ranking 53rd in scoring defense giving up 24.8 points a game. But the Miners are well below average offensively ranking 89th in scoring at 25.2 points and 71st in total yards. 

The Miners have little backdoor ability if they should fall behind, which is highly likely. 

Nearly three months ago, the Chargers and Chiefs played in Kansas City. Justin Herbert threw a TD pass to Mike Williams with 32 seconds left to give LA a 30-24 victory. 

Surprised the Bucks are a home 'dog to the Pacers? Don't be. Giannis Antetokounmpo is out and Khris Middleton also may miss this game because of a knee injury suffered against the Celtics this past Monday.

Still, I want the Bucks going for me.

The Bucks are off a bad 117-103 loss to the Celtics. They lost that game with Antetokounmpo in the lineup. Milwaukee has a deep bench that can withstand its two best players being out at home against a mediocre opponent. The Bucks' rotation gets a boost with defensive specialist Donte DiVincenzo expected to make his season debut after being out with an ankle injury.

This is just Indiana's second road game since Nov. 23. The Pacers lost to the Timberwolves in their last away matchup back on Nov. 29. Indiana is 3-10 on the road. The Bucks have won their last eight home contests.

The Bucks also are 2-0 versus the Pacers this season winning those games by an average of 14 points.

As good as the Cardinals have been this season they still haven't done much at home. Arizona has lost its past two home contests - to the Packers and Panthers - and has a losing spread mark at home. The Cardinals would have a losing straight-up mark at home, too, if they didn't nip the Vikings by one point.

No brilliant handicap here. Just a huge class difference. The Warriors are the best team in basketball with a 21-4 record. They rank first defensively and are No. 3 in scoring.

The 76ers are 14-12 with a losing home record. They've been without superstar center Joel Embiid, but even with him they still aren't within two levels of Golden State.

The teams met on Nov. 24 at Golden State and the Warriors won, 116-96. The 76ers didn't have Embiid and Tobias Harris in that game. They should have them here although Embiid is dealing with abdominal pain after just returning from the COVID-19 list.

Sure Embiid and Harris bolster the 76ers a lot. Just not enough to keep them in this point spread range.

The Warriors have been idle since Wednesday. They are 14-3 ATS during their last 17 games versus above .500 opponents so they haven't been just fattening up on bad teams. The 76ers have failed to cover in their last six home games. The game is being nationally televised by ABC so the Warriors should be pumped especially with Stephen Curry in pursuit of the all-time 3-point record.

There doesn't figure to be many points scored in this matchup and what few points are likely to be scored by Army. 

The Black Knights are better than Navy on both sides of the ball. Army ranks 20th in scoring and gives up the 16th-fewest yards per game. The Black Knights are the second-best running team in the nation averaging 301.2 yards. They are No. 1 in average time of possession. They've converted on close to 49 percent of their third down plays and 71 percent on fourth down. 

Navy has a decent run defense. But the Midshipmen have no offense ranking 115th in scoring at 20.4 points a game, 126th in total yards and last in passing yards. They've also turned the ball over 31 times, which is the fifth-highest mark in the country. 

Army shut out Navy last season, 15-0. The Black Knights are 8-3 with a four-game win streak. They've beaten Navy in four of the past five seasons. Jeff Monken has been Army's coach for eight seasons. This is one of his strongest Army teams. 

This is one of Ken Niumatalolo's weaker Navy teams with a 3-8 record. 

Spirits will be high, but I see Army grinding out a double-digit victory with Navy unable to put up enough points to keep this close. 

One thing's for sure here: The Lakers won't be taking the young, rebuilding Thunder for granted.

This is the third meeting between the teams. The Lakers are 0-2 versus Oklahoma City blowing leads of 26 and 19 points.

LA has been playing better after a disappointing November going 3-2 in its last five games. During this span, the Lakers blew out the Kings on the road and Celtics at home. They lost by four to the Clippers, who played their "A" game in that matchup, and last night were flat in a road loss to the Grizzlies.

The Thunder return home winners of two straight road games beating the Pistons and Raptors. It's a rare situation where the Thunder are fat and happy. They also haven't been home in nine days so their focus could be off.

Before their two-game road win streak, the Thunder had lost eight in a row, including a mind-boggling 73-point loss to the Grizzlies three games ago.

It's never easy to be the NFL Thursday night road team especially in a non-conference matchup when you don't know your opponent. The Steelers not only find themselves in that role, but also off a huge Sunday victory against the Ravens.

The Vikings, on the other hand, are seeking redemption after becoming the first team to lose to the Lions this season. It's no consolation for the Vikings that they outgained the Lions by nearly 50 yards.

Minnesota had a number of key people out, or injured in that game. The Vikings' defense will get a huge boost with the expected return of linebackers Eric Kendricks, their best defender, and Anthony Barr. Both missed the Lions game.

It's a plus if Dalvin Cook can play. But I don't see the Vikings needing him to cover this small spread. Alexander Mattison is one of the better backup running backs and Kirk Cousins is having a huge statistical season with a 25-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Steelers still are likely to be down their best cornerback with Joe Haden expected to miss a fourth consecutive game.

The Steelers' ground attack has regressed. It's going to be rough on ancient Ben Roethlisberger to perform well behind a bad offensive line on a short week.

The Timberwolves have shown major improvement this season going 7-1 from Nov. 17-Nov. 29. However, they are 0-3 in their last three games with road losses to the Wizards and Nets and then a bad home loss to the Hawks this past Monday.

Minnesota is going to be up for this game. The Timberwolves aren't likely to get injured D'Angelo Russell back here, but Patrick Beverley is expected to play for the first time in six games. Russell and Beverley are Minnesota's two top point guards. Lack of ball movement hurt the Timberwolves in their loss to Atlanta. That should change with Beverley's return. Beverley also is a top-notch defender. He's one of the more unsung players in the NBA.

The Timberwolves have the scorers to compete with Utah thanks to Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards.

Utah is fat and happy on a four-game win streak. The Jazz haven't been great in this role lately going 2-5 ATS the past seven times as a favorite and covering just one of their past five road games. The Timberwolves are 6-2 ATS the last eight times meeting a foe with a winning record.

I want the Lakers going for me in this revenge spot and catching Boston fat and happy.

The Lakers have begun to play better winning four of their last seven games as LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook get more acquainted. The Celtics can't match that star power especially if Jaylen Brown has to miss a third straight game due to a hamstring strain.

The Lakers have been idle since Friday when they suffered a frustrating loss to the Clippers, 119-115. They have been pointing to this matchup since losing, 130-108, on the road to the Celtics on Nov. 19.

Boston is off a 145-117 waltz against the Damian Lillard-less Trail Blazers this past Saturday. The Celtics have been up-and-down under first year head coach Ime Udoka.

The Raiders are a difficult team to figure out. But this is an extremely tough situational spot for Washington, off a narrow home win against the Seahawks this past Monday.

Washington has to travel cross-country now on a short week. The Raiders, by contrast, are on extra rest having played last Thursday. 

Las Vegas got its offense back in gear picking up 509 total yards and scoring 36 points against the Cowboys during its Thanksgiving upset victory. 

A special teams checkmark goes to the Raiders, too. Daniel Carlson has been one of the better kickers in the league making 24 of 27 field goals, while Washington is unsettled at kicker. 

The teams just met Wednesday in LA. The Kings won, 124-115. That put their record at 3-3 under interim coach Alvin Gentry, who replaced overmatched Luke Walton. The Kings are a better team under Gentry. They also have been idle since that Wednesday victory.

The Clippers, however, will be playing for the sixth time in nine days. They are off a highly-satisfying, 119-115, tough win against the Lakers last night. 
Paul George rolled his ankle against the Lakers. So he may be out. He's LA's best player with Kawhi Leonard sidelined. The Clippers haven't been consistent all season adjusting to life without Leonard. 

The rested Kings could get back Harrison Barnes, who is having a career year averaging 19 points and 7.2 rebounds. 

This game sets up well for Sacramento with the situational aspects outweighing the Clippers' revenge spot. 

It has been six years since Alabama last was an underdog. I understand why Georgia is favored here. But these teams are much closer than what the market perceives.
Georgia is 12-0. The Bulldogs have the best defense in the country. No debate there. 

The Crimson Tide, however, have faced the more difficult schedule. While the Bulldogs drew Vanderbilt, Missouri, South Carolina, Georgia Tech and Charleston Southern, Alabama had to play LSU, Mississippi and Texas A&M. 

Yes, Alabama had some close calls. Yet the Crimson Tide still lost only one game going 11-1. They know how to win and certainly are battle-tested. They also desperately need to win this game while Georgia doesn't. If the Crimson Tide loses their season is done. Georgia can take a loss and still would make the College Football Playoffs. 

I'm also attracted to getting this many points with the superior quarterback. Alabama gets that important check mark with Bryce Young. 

A battle of two mediocre Big Sky Conference teams isn't going to excite too many people. I rate Idaho State the better team plus the Bengals are home. So I find value in backing Idaho State at this short number. That makes this game worthwhile, at least, for me. 

Idaho State was picked to finish sixth in the Big Sky. Portland State was chosen to finish seven in conference by the coaches and eighth by the media. This helps reinforce my belief that Idaho State is the superior team. 

The Bengals went 8-6 in the Big Sky last season. Portland State went 6-8. Idaho State won the lone matchup last season beating the Vikings, 64-57, on the road. 
The Vikings are in transition with a new coach, Jase Coburn, and only one returning starter from last season. The Vikings are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country ranking 356h. 

Look for the Mavericks to bounce back against the Pelicans, a team they beat at home, 108-92, as 9-point favorites on Nov. 8. That was the sixth time in the last eight meetings Dallas has covered against New Orleans. 

The Mavericks are 1-5, though, in their last six games and off a 114-96 home loss to the Cavaliers two nights ago. The Cavaliers are improved and Dallas had open looks in that game. The Mavericks just couldn't hit their shots.

The Pelicans rank 26th in defensive field goal percentage and 27th in 3-point defense. I see the Mavericks hitting their shots in this one. They catch the Pelicans returning home following a successful 2-1 West Coast trip. Both of those wins were against the Clippers. The Pelicans seem to have the Clippers' number.

But this isn't a good spot for New Orleans. The Pelicans last were home on Nov. 24. So their focus could be off. They remain without Zion Williamson. 

I'm surprised at this low point spread. Detroit is 0-5 and one of the worst defensive teams in the country. Northeastern gives up 19 fewer points per game than Detroit.

The Huskies are 3-4. This is only their second home game of the season. Detroit is their easiest opponent so far.

The Titans lost, 98-84, to Hofstra in their last game this past Saturday. The Titans shot 51 percent from the floor and still lost by 14! That tells you how bad Detroit is.

I would feel confident laying double-digits with Northeastern against this foe. So this is a bargain price.