It's a given the Suns are going to win Game 3 of their series against the Nuggets, right? After all, Phoenix is down 0-2 and in must-win mode coming home. The Suns are 30-14 at home. The Nuggets are 20-23 on the road.

But on closer inspection, I can't get behind the Suns. There are too many red flags. There's also a hefty point spread tax for backing Phoenix here.

You have to go back to Nov. 11 against the Celtics in Boston to find the last time the Nuggets were this big of underdogs when Nikola Jokic was in the lineup.

Denver beat Phoenix by an average of 14 points in sweeping the first two games of the series in Denver. That's with Devin Booker and Kevin Durant - the Suns' two superstars - having strong performances. Booker is averaging 31 points and seven assists in the series with Durant averaging 26.5 points and 11 rebounds. So it's hard to ask those two to do more than they already are giving.

The Nuggets have two superstars of their own. Jokic has been the best player in the NBA for the past three seasons. He rates a huge edge on Deandre Ayton. Jamal Murray had been as hot as any player until shooting just 3-of-15 from the floor in Game 2. Yet the Nuggets still won that game by 10 points.

Denver has outrebounded the Suns by 13 in the series and has displayed a much stronger rotation and bench. Even with Booker and Durant playing up to par, the Suns have averaged just 97 points in the series.

Now the Suns are not only being asked to cover what I consider an excessive point spread, but do it without point guard Chris Paul. He's out with a groin injury putting Cameron Payne in the spotlight. Payne plays faster than Paul, but he's not nearly as talented, nor does he have big-game, big-minute experience on his resume.

Paul was injured in Monday's Game 2 loss. Payne came in and scored just two points in 17 minutes going 1-for-7 from the floor. Worse, the Suns were minus-16 when he was on the court. That translates to minus-32 if Payne's minutes are doubled from 17 to 34.

Maybe Payne will step up. But I'd rather take the points and go-against him. All the pressure here is on the Suns. Let's see how they hold up. I don't see it going well for them.

We saw it Wednesday night with the Celtics. We'll see it tonight with the Warriors. NBA teams down 0-1 in a series at home in Game 2 don't lose and they cover the spread. The record speaks for itself - 20-1 SU, 19-2 ATS since 2018 in that role.

The Lakers caught the Warriors coming off a Game 7 road win against Sacramento when they defeated Golden State, 117-112, this past Tuesday. The Warriors had beaten the Kings just two days before Game 1.

Golden State will be fully ready and prepared now for Game 2. The Warriors shot just six free throws in that Game 1 loss. The Lakers went to the line 29 times making 25. Even with that unstainable disparity, the Warriors had a chance to tie the game with less than 10 seconds left if Jordan Poole could have made an open 3-point shot.

The Lakers paid a price to win Game 1. They played fragile Anthony Davis for 44 minutes.

LA also upset the Grizzlies on the road in Game 1 of its previous series. The Lakers then went on to lose Game 2 in Memphis by 10 points.

The Warriors have played far better at home this season than on the road. Their home point spread record is an amazing: 40-19-1 ATS in their last 60 home games for 68 percent.

The Celtics were 10 1/2-point home favorites in Monday's Game 1. They lost to the 76ers straight-up. Boston opened double-digit favorites again for today's Game 2.

Maybe the Celtics even the series. But I won't turn down double-digit points with the 76ers to find out.

Boston lost Game 1 despite shooting 58.7 percent from the field, taking advantage of no Joel Embiid - who isn't likely to play here either - to outscore the 76ers, 66-42, in the paint and committed just 10 fouls. Yet lost.

The Celtics can talk about increasing their defensive intensity. The reality is, though, the Celtics were overconfident hosting the 76ers when Philly didn't have league MVP Embiid. Maybe Boston won't be overconfident anymore. The Celtics, however, can't be trusted to suddenly play better defense. Not when they've given up an average of 121.8 points during their last five games.

I don't expect James Harden to shoot 17-of-30 from the field like he did in Game 1. But Harden has his confidence up and he's backed by some underrated 76er scorers who were held back during the regular season by Embiid's dominance. This list includes Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris and Paul Reed.

The 76ers are 12-5 without Embiid this season. Even more impressive is they are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 away games minus Embiid. Philadelphia also is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games.

(Update: Since I released this play last night, the line has come down with word coming that Embiid may indeed play. I like the 76ers getting more than 6 1/2 points with or without Embiid. So the handicap holds.)

Here's the thing about the Nuggets. They were outshot by the Suns, 51.2 percent to 47.5 percent, and outscored in the paint, 60-48, by the Suns during Saturday's Game 1. Kevin Durant had a big game scoring 29 points, hitting 12 of 19 shots from the field, while Nikola Jokic made just 9-of-21 shots from the field.

Yet the Nuggets won Game 1 - and won it by 18 points, 125-107.

Denver is just so tough at home being 38-7 and is peaking. Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon are healthy. Guards Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Bruce Brown and Christian Braun know how to effectively defend Chris Paul, who got a pass in the Suns' first-round series victory against the Clippers with LA minus Paul George and then Kawhi Leonard the last couple of games. George and Leonard not only are great scorers, but excellent defenders.

The Suns had seven more turnovers than the Nuggets in Game 1 and pulled down 11 fewer rebounds.

Then there's Jamal Murray. He's the hottest player in the playoffs during the past two games, averaging 39 points while making 25-of-47 shots from the field and sinking 11-of-20 shots from 3-point range.

The Nuggets have won and covered four in a row against the Suns, including all three games played in Denver. Phoenix is 3-7 in its last 10 road games.

Great season by the Kings, but it's closeout time now for the Warriors. The defending world champions have won the past three games in the series. They need to win this one at home knowing a loss forces them to go back to Sacramento for Game 7.

The Warriors are 12-32 on the road and 35-8 at home, including 2-0 against the Kings during this series. Needless to say, they play far better at home. Their 40-17-1 (70 percent) ATS record in their last 58 home games is proof of that.

But this huge home/road split didn't stop the Warriors from inflicting a huge defeat on the Kings in Game 5 at Sacramento, 123-116, this past Wednesday.

That loss has to be demoralizing for the upstart Kings and a huge reinforced confidence boost for the Warriors.

Golden State has all hands on deck now with Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins and Gary Payton II aiding superstar Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole. The Kings don't have the defense to keep the Warriors in check ranking 25th in scoring defense and 29th in defensive field goal percentage.

The Kings need to keep pace offensively with the Warriors to stay in the game. That's even more difficult for them now with their star guard De'Aaron Fox hampered by a broken finger. The injury affected his shooting as Fox was just 9-of-25 from the floor in Game 5 in his first game dealing with the injury.

Swept the past two games at home, the Panthers find themselves down, 3-1, to the Bruins and on the verge of elimination in this first-round series matchup.

I don't see Florida upsetting the Bruins in Boston in this Game 5. I'm willing, too, to turn a huge lay price into a plus price by laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line with the Bruins. The bonus being this is a closeout spot so the Panthers won't hesitate to pull their goalie early if down by a goal or two near the end of the game. 

The Bruins have been dominant all season. They certainly are dominant at home having won 42 of their last 51 games there. Florida has lost 20 of the past 26 times in Boston. 

Boston, though, will be taking nothing for granted as the road Panthers upset the Bruins in Game 2. The stinging defeat was a wakeup call for Boston. The Bruins beat the Panthers, 4-2 and 6-2, in Games 3 and 4. Boston's last six victories now have all been by more than one goal. 

As a bonus, the Bruins could get back their captain, Patrice Bergeron. He's yet to play in the series after getting hurt in Boston's regular-season finale. Bergeron is Boston's second-leading goal-scorer. 

The Timberwolves got their playoff victory coming from 12 points down in the fourth quarter to beat the Nuggets in overtime at home during Sunday's Game 4 of their series.

So the Timberwolves gained a little pride. The grim reality is they are down 3-1 in the series and back in Denver where they figure to get clobbered.

The Nuggets aren't going to screw around now with this overmatched opponent that could be missing three key rotation players. Minnesota definitely is minus injured Jaden McDaniels and Nat Reid and now Kyle Anderson is questionable with an eye injury.

Expect an intense effort from the now-aroused Nuggets at home. which should insure a double-digit victory. Denver has beaten Minnesota the past three times at home by an average of 24 points, including a 29-point win in Game 1. Denver has also covered six of the past seven times following a loss.

The Grizzlies have been road underdogs 16 times this season. Their record in those games? 0-16 SU, 2-14 ATS.

That's powerful evidence that this isn't a good spot for Memphis.

The Lakers are peaking at the right time. Superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis are both playing at high levels. The Lakers also are getting key contributions from role players Rui Hachimura, Austin Reaves and Dennis Schroder.

The Grizzlies split the opening two games of this series at home. But they couldn't hang with the Lakers during Saturday's Game 3 in LA. The final score of LA winning, 111-101, is misleading. The Grizzlies were never in the game. The Lakers buried them, 35-9, in the first quarter.

Memphis lost by double-digits despite a monster performance from Ja Morant, who scored 45 points while shooting 13-of-26 from the floor. Morant scored more than half of those points during the meaningless fourth quarter.

The Grizzlies are minus big men Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke. Adams led the Grizzlies in rebounding while Clarke was fourth.

James is at his competitive best spurred on in part by being goaded by the stupidity and dirty play of Dillon Brooks, who called James old and not worthy of respect.

The Hawks just didn't beat the Celtics, 130-122, in Friday's Game 3 of this series by riding an overdue great shooting game from Trae Young. They did it by also outscoring the Celtics by 14 points in the paint and grabbing 19 more rebounds.

Atlanta has been good at home, much better than on the road. The Hawks' confidence is up and I give them a coaching edge with Quin Snyder against playoff rookie Joe Mazzulla.

There's also a possibility the Celitcs won't have guard Marcus Smart, who is questionable with a tailbone injury.

If there's a key number in the NBA it's 6. So this is enough points for me to get involved with the Hawks.

It shouldn't be that shocking Golden State is down 0-2 to Sacramento. After all, the first two games of this series were in Sacramento. The Warriors were 11-30 on the road.

But now the Warriors return home. That makes all the difference. Golden State is 33-8 at home. All of the Warriors' statistics are better at home than on the road. Each of Golden State's past nine home victories have been by at least eight points. The Warriors are 39-16-1 (71 percent) ATS in their last 56 home contests.

I'm not worried the Warriors won't have Draymond Green. I'm being objective here since I haven't despised a Golden State player as much as I do Green since Rick Barry (yes I go that far back). Barry was a whiner. Green is a whiner and a dirty player.

I digress. I'll gladly accept the tradeoff of laying fewer points without Green. Because the Warriors won't need Green to produce an all-out effort at home in must-win mode while the Kings come in fat and happy having accomplished what they set out to do in Sacramento.

I'm expecting a professional, focused effort from the defending world champions without having to be concerned about Green's distractions and drama. Golden State went 2-0 at home this season when they didn't have Green.

The Kings are listing their best big man, Domantas Sabonis, as questionable with a bruised sternum. I fully expect Sabonis to play. It's just an unexpected bonus if he doesn't, or is limited.

I had the Clippers plus 7 1/2 in Game 1 of this series expecting a huge performance from Kawhi Leonard. So I wasn't surprised when Leonard scored 38 in the Clippers' upset victory this past Sunday.

But now I'm going the other way for this Game 2 riding the Zig Zag theory. I don't see the Suns losing a second straight home game, which would put them in serious jeopardy for the series.

Kevin Durant also played well in that Game 1. The Suns are 8-1 with Durant in their lineup. They way outnumber the Paul George-less Clippers in star power. The Suns won't be taking the Clippers lightly in this must-win spot.

The Clippers are 2-6 ATS the past eight times following a victory.

Disrespected by the oddsmaker and marketplace all season, Oklahoma City has proven it is far ahead of schedule. The Thunder have covered 57 percent of their games this season going 46-34-3 ATS. They will reach the playoffs if they beat the Timberwolves.

The Thunder upset the Pelicans on Wednesday. I see them doing the same to Minnesota. Oklahoma City is on house money. The pressure is on the favored Timberwolves. Minnesota is banged-up and has chemistry issues. I find the Timberwolves untrustworthy. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.

Only twice in their last 10 games have the Thunder lost by more than five points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is as big as any star Minnesota has.

Rudy Gobert is back from his one-game suspension for throwing a punch at teammate Kyle Anderson. Gobert, though, is not 100 percent due to back trouble. Jaden McDaniels, a top defensive wing, is out. So is Naz Reid. Those are two key rotation players for Minnesota.

The Thunder have covered in six of their last seven visits to Minnesota.

Few expected the Thunder to reach the postseason this season. The Thunder are on house money with all the pressure on the home Pelicans with the loser of this matchup eliminated.

The Pelicans went 9-3 down the stretch to reach this point. That took a lot of physical and mental energy.

Oklahoma City has lost only twice by more than five points during its last nine games. The Thunder have confidence knowing they defeated the Pelicans, 110-96, in New Orleans when the teams last met on March 11.

The Thunder have been strong money-makers all season going 45-34-3 ATS, the third-best spread in the NBA.

I trust them to hang in against the Pelicans.

The Lakers are hot, peaking at the right time. The Timberwolves lack the bodies, maturity and leadership to stay close on the road against the Lakers here.

LA has won nine of its last 11 games with six of those victories coming by 11 or more points. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are in sync. D'Angelo Russell is back contributing.

The Timberwolves are in disarray - and it's not just because star center Rudy Gobert is suspended for this game for throwing a punch at teammate Kyle Anderson. The Timberwolves have three underrated injuries: Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid and Jaylen Nowell. They are all out. Those are the Timberwolves' fourth, sixth and seventh-leading scorers and key complementary players.

So without those three and Gobert, Minnesota is down four of its nine rotation players. It's too much to expect Minnesota to stay within single digits of the hot Lakers on the road minus all those components especially given their team makeup.

The Pacers are out of the playoff race. They aren't likely to have their two best players, Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner.

So why back Indiana?

The Knicks lack motivation and are banged-up. New York is locked into the No. 5 playoff seed in the East.

Julius Randle, New York's best player, is out for the rest of the regular season because of an ankle injury. Star point guard Jalen Brunson, the Knicks' second-best player, is dealing with hand and foot injuries that have caused him to miss seven of the last 15 games.

The Pacers should play hard. Their young players are fighting for jobs. Rick Carlisle is a good coach who demands effort. Indiana upset Oklahoma City at home two games ago and in its last game led the Cavaliers for most of the contest before falling apart during the final four minutes in a 10-point road loss this past Sunday. The Pacers were derailed in that game by Donovan Mitchell, who shot 14-of-25 from the field and scored 40 points. The Knicks don't have a shooter nearly the superstar caliber of Mitchell.

This is what Carlisle was quoted as saying: ''The way we're set up for our young guys, it really is a great opportunity for them. ''... This period of the last 2 1/2, three weeks is very valuable. This creates momentum into next season. We have momentum with our roster.''

Look for the Pacers to hang here if not pull out an outright victory.

(Editor's note: The line has dropped considerably since I posted this play in large part because Brunson has been ruled out. I still would strongly back the Pacers believing Indiana is very live to win this game straight-up.) 

There have been a lot of bad beats in this NCAA Tournament. I don't see San Diego State winning this game. But I could see the Aztecs hanging around. Until the end that is when they start fouling a lot, which allows the Huskies to cover this number.

Then again, the Huskies just could outclass the Aztecs. They are the better all-around team. Both teams are outstanding defensively.

However, Connecticut is averaging 79.8 points in the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies have scored 70 or more points in 30 games. They rank third in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom's numbers. San Diego State can't match that.

Connecticut hasn't allowed more than 70 points in its last nine games - all played in March. The Huskies just held Gonzaga to 54 points and Miami to 59 points. Those were season lows in points for both of those teams.

Much respect to San Diego State for getting to this late stage. But I'm not going against the Huskies here.

I understand the Trail Blazers are fielding a JV lineup these days. But the situation sets up perfect for Portland to cover this large number.

Sacramento clinched a playoff spot following its last game this past Wednesday. That's a big deal for the Kings. They had gone 16 seasons without earning a postseason berth, the longest playoff drought in NBA history.

The team who the Kings beat Wednesday? None other than the Trail Blazers. And the Kings buried them, 120-80.

Hard to believe the Kings are going to have any intensity for this matchup after celebrating their playoff spot and knowing how bad their opponent is.

This is Portland's second-to-last home game. The Trail Blazers should put forth a great effort after Wednesday's humiliation.

Alabama-Birmingham has been the best team in the NIT. I'm going to ride the Blazers here. UAB defeated Southern Mississippi and Morehead State by double-digits in the tournament and then reached this semifinal match by defeating Vanderbilt, 67-59, on the road.

The Blazers have done all this despite their top scorer and best player, senior guard Jordan Walker, shooting just 35.4 percent from the field during the tournament. Walker averaged 23 points during the regular season while shooting 42.3 percent from the floor.

UAB is winning by playing its best defense holding their three NIT opponents to an average of 59.3 points. None of these opponents were able to score more than 60 points on the Blazers.

Utah Valley is giving up an average of 74 points in its last four games.

I see a class difference of more than this point spread between UAB of Conference USA and Utah Valley from the Western Athletic Conference. The Blazers are 15-2 in their last 17 games. Their only losses during this time span were on the road to North Texas in overtime and to Florida Atlantic in the finals of the conference tournament game. North Texas plays Wisconsin in the other NIT semifinal and Florida Atlantic is one of four teams left in the NCAA Tournament.

Not only is this a terrible spot for the Timberwolves, but their two best players could be impacted.

Both Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards played major minutes helping the Timberwolves upset the Warriors, 99-96, at Golden State last night. It's asking a lot for the Timberwolves to pull off a second consecutive upset - and doing it without rest.

Towns has played just twice since missing 51 games with a calf injury. He's on a minutes restriction. He logged 32 minutes against Golden State, which is more than Minnesota wanted to use him. Edwards returned after missing three straight games with a sprained ankle. He logged 35 minutes.

The Timberwolves play at the Suns on Wednesday followed by a home game against the Lakers on Friday. So they could be thinking long-term and hold out Towns and Edwards not wanting to risk those stars getting hurt after playing the night before, especially considering how fast and up-tempo the Kings play. Minnesota is 3-8 ATS the past 11 times following a victory.

Sacramento is 23-15 at home. Minnesota is 17-20 on the road.

The Kings beat the Jazz by eight points at home in their last game two days ago minus De'Aaron Fox. He sat out with a hamstring injury. It's an injury that's not considered serious. Fox is questionable for this matchup. It's a nice bonus if Fox plays. But I still like the Kings to cover even if Fox doesn't suit up.

Miami had a great win against Houston on Friday. But the Hurricanes don't match up well to Texas. The Longhorns are averaging eight more points in the paint than Miami during the NCAA Tournament and playing outstanding defense.

Texas is giving up an average of only 60 points during its last seven games. The Longhorns beat top-seeded Kansas to capture the Big 12 Conference Tournament and are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games. They are a team that has peaked at the perfect time after a mediocre late February stretch. Interim Longhorns coach Rodney Terry has made all the right moves.

Miami, on the other hand, finished its ACC regular season blowing a 25-point lead in a home loss to Florida State and then barely beat Pittsburgh failing to cover as a 7 1/2-point home favorite. Then in the ACC Tournament, the Hurricanes only beat Wake Forest by two points followed by a seven-point loss to Duke. The Hurricanes weren't that sharp either against Drake in the NCAA Tournament.

It's a bonus if Big 12 Tournament MVP big man Dylan Disu is able to play for Texas after suffering a foot injury in the Longhorns' Friday win against Xavier. Miami isn't set up to take advantage if Disu can't play. The Hurricanes do their damage from the perimeter rather than inside.

Texas has other capable scorers, including Marcus Carr, Timmy Allen and Sir Jabari Rice. Carr and Allen have scored more than 2,000 career points.

I want Texas' defense, the outstanding coaching of Terry and the Longhorns' hot point spread mark going for me.

Texas can win either by its defense or offense. They are one of just four schools that rank in the Top 20 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency.

Xavier is heavily reliant on offense. The Musketeers rank 305th defensively. They average 82.1 points, however, which ranks 12th.

Texas, though, is playing outstanding defense. The Longhorns have held their last six opponents - Kansas twice, Oklahoma State, TCU, Colgate and Penn State - to an average of only 58.2 points a game.

Xavier's season-long numbers are skewed. The Musketeers haven't been that potent since losing their second-leading scorer, Zach Freemantle, at the end of January. He was averaging 15.2 points, while shooting 58.5 percent from the floor. Xavier has rarely encountered an opponent as athletic and defensively sound as the Longhorns.

The Longhorns haven't missed a beat since Rodney Terry replaced Chris Beard as head coach in January. The Longhorns upset Kansas to win the Big 12 Conference Tournament. They are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games.

The 76ers have won eight in a row. They've had this game circled for more than three months. Sparked by Zach LaVine's torrid shooting in a 41-point performance, the Bulls upset the 76ers, 126-112, as 5-point road 'dogs on Jan. 6. That snapped Philadelphia's 11-game home win streak. LaVine made 14 of 19 shots from the floor and hit 11 of 13 3-pointers.

I highly doubt LaVine comes close to repeating those numbers. The 76ers rank third defensively and fourth in defensive 3-point percentage. Nobody in the NBA is playing better than Joel Embiid. He's scored 30 or more points in nine consecutive games. Embiid should be rested and raring to go after sitting out the fourth quarter in the 76ers' 141-121 blowout victory against the Pacers this past Saturday.

The Bulls are 4-1 in their last five games, although they needed a lot of good fortune to pull out a double overtime home win against the Timberwolves two games ago. The Timberwolves lost Anthony Edwards early in the game. This is Chicago's third game in four days and fourth game in six days. It's the Bulls' first road game in nine days. The Bulls are 1-6-1 ATS in their past eight away matchups.

Philadelphia has been dominant at home with a 26-10 record. The 76ers have covered seven of the last nine times they've hosted Chicago. The 76ers had covered eight in a row against Chicago until that January defeat.

Death, taxes and Gonzaga making the Sweet 16. The Bulldogs are gunning to make the Final 16 teams in the NCAA Tournament for the eighth straight time. I see them doing it, too, against TCU.

Gonzaga is peaking at the right time as the Bulldogs annually do. TCU is 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when facing an above .500 opponent.

I don't trust the Horned Frogs to stay with Gonzaga in the scoring column. Six-foot-10 star Drew Timme is going to cause problems inside for TCU and the Horned Frogs don't have enough of a strong perimeter game to compensate. They rank a hideous 353rd in 3-point accuracy.

TCU nearly didn't even reach this stage. The Horned Frogs needed a basket with 1.5 seconds left to get past Arizona State in their first round game. TCU is 0-6 ATS the past six times following a victory.

I see this as a kill spot for Seattle. The Kraken are off three straight home losses. Now they go on the road to play the Sharks, who have by far the worst home mark in the NHL at  6-19-9.

The Kraken have played much better on the road going 21-9-3. They've won their last four road games. Their last road defeat occurred to the Sharks, 4-0, on Feb. 20. So no chance the revenge-minded Kraken take the Sharks lightly.

Motivation, on the other hand, could be difficult for the Sharks. They just were eliminated from playoff contention for the fourth straight season following a 6-5 home overtime loss to the Blue Jackets. 

I'm not in love laying this many points in an NCAA Tournament game, but it's justified in this mismatch of Texas versus Colgate of the Patriot League. 
Texas has the outstanding guard play, experience, depth and defense to make a serious run in the tournament. 

Colgate played the 332nd easiest schedule. The Patriot League - a minor conference to start with - was especially terrible this season. The Raiders haven't faced a team with the athletic ability and size of Texas. The best team they played was Auburn and the Tigers buried them, 93-66. shooting 55 percent from the field. 

The Longhorns average nearly 79 points a game. They've been playing great defense, too, holding their last four opponents - Kansas twice, TCU and Oklahoma State - to an average of 55.5 points a game. 

Florida was hoping to get back into the NCAA Tournament. The Gators were on the bubble until mid-February when their best player, Colin Castleton, went down for the season with a broken hand. Without Castleton, their leading scorer and rebounder, the Gators went 2-4. They were blown out by Arkansas and Vanderbilt during this span and then eliminated in the first round of the SEC Conference Tournament, beaten by Mississippi State.

The Gators aren't nearly as good without Castleton and they aren't going to be highly motivated playing in the NIT again after failing to reach the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year.

Central Florida will be the more motivated team. This is the Knights' chance to beat an in-state SEC rival.

The Knights are certainly capable. They have a top-50 defense, while ranking No. 32 in 3-point defense. The Knights are 17-13. Florida is 16-15. Central Florida upset Wichita State and Mississippi on the road. The Knights also upset Oklahoma State on a neutral court. They also lost by one point at Memphis during the regular season and then played the peaking Tigers tough in the American Athletic Conference Tournament losing by five points.

I'm taking the points with Memphis in this American Athletic Conference Championship Tournament game. The Tigers play Houston tough and the Cougars aren't likely to have their leading scorer, Marcus Sasser, for this game. He's doubtful with a groin injury. Even if he were to play he'd be far from 100 percent. 

Sasser averages 17 points a game. No other Houston player averages more than 14 points.

Memphis is the fifth-highest scoring team in the nation led by superstar scorers, DeAndre Williams and Kendrick Davis. They combine to average nearly 58 points a game.

The Cougars beat Memphis in both regular season meetings. But their combined winning margin was five points. Sasser played in both of those games, averaging a combined 16 points.

Houston has the No. 2 defensive team in the country. The Cougars, though, are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. Memphis averages 79.5 points a game, which is fifth-best in the nation.

A key here is the Tigers also have been playing excellent defense. They rank 34th in the country in defensive field goal percentage and have held their last four opponents to an average of 64.7 points.

The Suns don't need Kevin Durant to cover this small home point spread.

Phoenix is 5-1 in its last six games. The Suns' lone loss during this span came to the Bucks by three points on the road. Phoenix's average winning margin during this time frame is 15.8 points.

The Suns are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. Devin Booker is on fire averaging 38 points during his last four games.

The Kings are much improved. Domantas Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox are having superstar-type seasons. But the Kings are not an elite team. They are off a 122-117 home win against the Knicks two days ago where they were outrebounded, 58-42.

The Suns defeated the Kings, 120-109, in the team's last meeting on Feb. 14. Phoenix also beat the Kings on the road by five points in the first meeting this season.

I find this line to be way short given how well Sam Houston State has been playing. 

Not only does Sam Houston State outscore Grand Canyon on the season, but the Bearkats are the fifth-best defensive team in the nation both in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage.

The 25-6 Bearkats are peaking at the perfect time. They've won eight in a row going 7-1 ATS. 

Sam Houston State has held their last seven opponents to an average of 53.7 points in regulation. None of these foes was able to reach 60 points. 
Grand Canyon was three games worse than Sam Houston State during the Western Athletic Conference regular season. The Lopes are 22-11 on the season. 

Sam Houston State is 9-1-1 ATS the past 11 times when playing an opponent with a winning record.  

Nevada had little trouble handling San Jose State during the regular season. The Wolf Pack beat the Spartans, 66-51, at home and 67-40 on the road.

I don't see the Wolf Pack encountering problems in this Mountain West Conference Tournament matchup at neutral site Las Vegas.

Nevada has covered 13 of its last 18 neutral site games.

San Jose State is a one-man show when it comes to scoring. Omari Moore is the Spartans' only player averaging double-figures in scoring. The Spartans will need to hit their 3-pointers to stay in the game. They are not a good long-range shooting team.

Nevada is the deeper and superior team with two excellent defenders, Tre Coleman and Kenan Blackhshear, to limit Moore and clamp down on the Spartans inside.

The Raptors are a mediocre Eastern Conference club that has a losing record on the season, mainly because of a 12-20 road mark.

Only once have the Raptors played an above .500 team during their last 10 games. That was a road game against the Cavaliers. Cleveland buried the Raptors, 118-93.

Denver is 29-4 at home. The Nuggets have lost once at home since Dec. 6. Denver has won each of its last seven home games by nine or more points.

So why should this home matchup be any different?

It shouldn't. The Raptors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games and that includes covering against the Wizards in overtime this past Saturday.

The Raptors have failed to cover on the road against the Nuggets in six of their last seven visits. Playing in Denver's thin mountain air isn't going to help them coming off a Saturday night overtime game that was played on the East Coast.

The Nuggets have covered each of the last six times they've hosted an opponent with a below .500 road record.

Idaho State is 11-20. I'm surprised the Bengals even have that many wins because they are terrible.

Montana has underachieved in going 16-13, 10-7 in the Big Sky. But the Grizzlies have a huge talent edge here along with momentum. The fourth-seeded Grizzlies are very live to capture the Big Sky Conference Tournament.

Montana is 7-1 in its last eight games. Idaho State is 2-5 in its last seven games. Josh Bannan and Aanen Moody give the Grizzlies the two best players on the court.

The Grizzlies were 2-0 against Idaho State during the regular season winning 84-55 at home and 69-61 on the road.

After missing the past 11 games with a knee injury, Stephen Curry is set to return here against the Lakers. Aside from Curry likely to be rusty, the Lakers are in must-win mode and catch the Warriors fat and happy after Golden State just swept its five-game homestand.

So this spot sets up for the underdog Lakers especially given the Warriors' Dr. Jekyll-Mr. Hyde home/road performances. Golden State is 27-7 at home and 7-23 on the road.

The Lakers can't afford to lose home games like they did to the Timberwolves this past Friday. They did get Anthony Davis back for that. I'm expecting a much more focused and intense effort from the Lakers.

The Warriors are playing for the seventh time in 11 days. Every one of their five victories during their recent homestand were come-from-behind wins with four of those games involving double-digit comebacks.

Golden State isn't going to be able to turn the switch on and off like that being on the road, where it has lost the past five times going 0-4-1 ATS.

Back when UNLV was playing much better, the Rebels defeated Nevada, 68-62, at home on Jan. 28. Since then UNLV only has managed to beat three of the four worst teams in the Mountain West Conference. The Rebels were a no-show in their last game, a 91-66 home loss to Utah State this past Wednesday.

If it wasn't for a last-second tip-in in a 54-53 home win against Air Force, the Rebels would be 0-5 in their last five games.

So I don't see the Rebels staying with revenge-minded Nevada.

The 22-8 Wolf Pack need this game to have a good chance of landing an NCAA Tournament berth. Nevada is a perfect 15-0 at home. The Wolf Pack will have a sellout crowd at home on senior night playing their arch-rival. They are the superior team catching a downtrodden UNLV team. Expect a double-digit Wolf Pack victory.

The handicap here is very straightforward. Denver is extremely tough at home and in short revenge. The Grizzlies are terrible on the road.

The Nuggets are 28-4 at home. Their last loss at Ball Arena came on Dec. 6. They've been idle since Tuesday and have revenge for an 18-point road loss to the Grizzlies suffered six days ago.

The Grizzlies are 12-18 on the road. Until they beat the bottom-feeding Rockets in Houston two days ago, the Grizzlies had lost eight consecutive away games going 1-7 ATS in those matchups.

I'm very surprised Kansas City opened as a 'dog to Nebraska Omaha in this Summit League Tournament matchup.

UMKC is 11-20. Nebraska Omaha is 8-22. The Mavericks have lost 10 of their last 11 games. UMKC beat them in both meetings during the regular season, 64-61, on Jan. 26 and 75-59 on the road Dec. 31.

The Kangaroos give up nearly nine points fewer per game than Nebraska Omaha. They also are a much stronger rebounding team than the Mavericks.

UMKC has the best player on the court, too, in Rayquawndis Mitchell.

After winning three in a row, the Lakers lost LeBron James and then lost to the Grizzlies, 121-109, last night in their first game without James.

James remains out. But I believe the Lakers bounce back in this revenge spot against the Thunder. The Lakers have had a game to adjust to James' absence. Oklahoma City also is without its own LeBron James with All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sidelined. He's missed the Thunder's past three games due to an abdominal strain and a right ankle injury. Oklahoma City is 0-3 in those games losing by nine points to the Suns and suffering losses to the Kings by nine and six points.

The Thunder have allowed 123, 124 and 124 points in their past three games. LA is the better defensive team.

The teams met on Feb. 7. James broke the NBA's all-time scoring record in that game, but the Thunder won. The Lakers haven't forgotten. They are a better all-around team following the trade deadline minus Russell Westbrook and with the addition of several good rotation players. 

This line is out of whack. Both teams are 20-9 and battling for third place in the Mid-American Conference. Ball State State was a three-point home favorite against Akron on Jan. 6 and won, 70-63.

Now look at the line.

This should be a very close game. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Cardinals win again. They are in better current form although they got a jolt in their last game losing as road chalk to Eastern Michigan this past Saturday. Before that defeat, though, Ball State had won seven of its past eight games.

The Cardinals should be highly-focused following that wake-up call. They are 16-5 ATS (76 percent) the past 21 times following a loss. Ball State also has covered four of the last five times against opponents with a winning percentage above .600.

Akron, by contrast, is 1-7 ATS the past eight times when it has met a foe with a winning percentage above .600. The Zips' 14-1 home record looks impressive, but they have a losing ATS mark on the season and are 3-3 during their last six games.

The teams have similar statistics. Ball State, however, ranks 43rd nationally in 3-point percentage. That's nearly 100 teams better than Akron in that key category.

Even given home-court advantage, I don't think Stanford should even be favored against Washington let alone laying mid-sized points like this.

So I'm on the Huskies. Washington is 16-13 and 8-10 in the Pac-12. Stanford is 11-17 and 5-12 in the Pac 12.

Washington is playing much better than the Cardinal, too. The Huskies have won three in a row. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six games. Stanford has lost five of its last six games, including the past three.

The teams met on Jan. 12 in Seattle and the Huskies easily won, 86-69. The Cardinal could connect on just nine of 29 3-point attempts. It wasn't a fluke. The Huskies rate seventh in the country in 3-point defense while Stanford is 306th in 3-point defense.

I want the Warriors going for me after they lost on the road to the Lakers last night in their first game back from All-Star break. Golden State is home where it has played far better with a 22-7 mark.

The Warriors also have the advantage of having had a game following All-Star break. Houston's last game was nine days ago.

The Rockets entered the break having lost seven in a row. Their last two games - both on the road - were a 19-point loss to the 76ers and a 37-point defeat to the Thunder.

Golden State is the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA at 118.5 points a game. The Rockets rank 26th defensively and 29th in scoring.

Stephen Curry remains out, but Houston is minus its two leading scorers, Kevin Porter Jr. (foot) and Jalen Green (groin).

Defense and a 7-23 road record have been the killers for Golden State. But the Warriors are home here and have made a commitment and priority to playing stronger defense having had ample time during the All-Star break. It's not like the Warriors aren't capable. They had the No. 2 defense last season.

This is the most points Iowa State has gotten all season. T.J. Otzelberger could be the best coach in the country. So I'm going to accept this many points.

Texas is a top-25 offense. Iowa State is a top 15-defense. I trust Otzelberger and the Cyclones' defense to keep this close.

Texas was fortunate to get past Oklahoma, 85-83 in overtime, this past Saturday as a 10 1/2-point home favorite. The Longhorns are 7-21 (25 percent) ATS the last 28 times following a victory.

Iowa State handled the Longhorns at home. The Cyclones beat them, 78-67, on Jan. 17. They can hang here.

There is one team in the Big Ten Conference who is an autofade - Minnesota. The Gophers are 1-13 in the league. They haven't been competitively on the road lately.

The Gophers lost by 35 points to Rutgers and by 20 points to Northwestern in their last two away games. Minnesota is 4-9-1 ATS in their past 14 road contests. 

I see this as a kill spot for the host Illini. Minnesota has lost nine in a row. It's also a difficult situational spot for the Gophers as because of previous postponements this will be just their third game in 16 days. 

Boise State is very tough at home. UNLV is a sliding team with a bad recent history against the Broncos.

So I find this a simple choice: Lay the points with Boise State.

The 20-6 Broncos have won their last 11 home games with all but one of those victories coming by nine or more points. They are 10-3 in the Mountain West Conference.

UNLV is 16-10 with a 5-9 Mountain West record. The Rebels have lost three of their past four games, including home losses to San Jose State and Fresno State as mid-sized favorites. They are 5-9 SU, 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games.

Boise State is 5-1 in its last six games. The Broncos have held opponents to fewer than 60 points a game when playing at home, while averaging more than 74 points shooting 49 percent from the floor and 77 percent from the foul line.

The Broncos have dominated the Rebels winning the past six meetings. This includes an 84-66 road win on Jan. 11.

Maybe it's because Southeast Missouri State has lost three in a row. But I find this line to be well short of my power rankings for these two teams.

The Redhawks are at least a dozen points better than Eastern Illinois given home-court advantage. SE Missouri State has won the last five in the series, including defeating the Panthers, 79-68, on the road Jan. 28.

SE Missouri State is in a five-way tie for second place in the Ohio Valley Conference at 8-6. Eastern Illinois is 9-18 overall and 5-9 in the OVC.

The Redhawks lead the conference in scoring, field goal percentage and have the best turnover margin. They have the best player on the court in Phillip Russell, who leads the Ohio Valley Conference in scoring at 19 points per game while also dishing off 5.2 assists per game.

I don't see Eastern Illinois staying with SE Missouri State. The Panthers average fewer than 70 points per game. They rank last in the OVC in free throw percentage, rebounding margin and 3-pointers made.

The Coyotes are not a good team. But they are respectable at home going 11-8-2 at their new temporary home, Mullett Arena. They have won four of their last six home games and are capable of beating any team at Mullett Arena having proven that with victories against the Bruins, Maple Leafs and Avalanche.

Mullett Arena is a 5,000-seat arena on the Arizona State campus. It is not a normal NHL arena because of its small size. Fans are right on top of the players. Opponents of the Coyotes are not used to this, especially when playing there for the first time. Tampa Bay fits that category. The Lightning probably won't take to the ice until pre-game warmups because they aren't likely to have a morning skate after playing Tuesday night.

And what a game the Lightning had last night in Colorado.

Tampa Bay edged the Avalanche, 4-3, in a shootout. The game had the intensity of a playoff matchup. I doubt the Lightning will go with star goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy in the second of back-to-back games. Tampa Bay's next game is much bigger on the road against the Golden Knights. There's a monster drop off from Vasilevskiy to backup goalie Brian Elliott. So that would be another plus for the Coyotes.

I would recommend taking the Coyotes to win the first period, too, at around a nice plus $1.50 price. The Coyotes have yet to be outscored during the first period in five previous situations where an opponent was playing at Mullett Arena for the first time after playing the day before.

The Hawks want to make a mark before All-Star break hits. The Hornets can't wait until the All-Star break. 

This may be the only time I write this but the Pistons are fat and happy. Detroit won its battle of terrible teams defeating the Spurs, 138-131 in double overtime, at home two days ago.

Prior to that victory, the Pistons had lost 12 of the previous 15 games. I made the mistake of actually backing the Pistons two games ago when they were receiving 13 points against the Cavaliers, who were missing their star backcourt players, Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. Cleveland rolled past Detroit, 113-85, at home.

The Pistons are 0-7 ATS the past seven times following a win.

Toronto is the flip side. The Raptors blew a 13-point fourth-quarter lead at home to the Jazz this past Friday. Toronto had won three in a row prior to that defeat.

The Raptors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home contests when facing a foe with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

This spot sets up for a Toronto blowout.

Hawaii has the better record. Hawaii is the better team. The key question is can the Rainbow Warriors cover this number?

I say they can. Home-court is huge here. Hawaii is 15-3 at home. Cal State-Fullerton is 3-10 on the road. The Rainbow Warriors have won their home games by an average of nearly eight points per game. This has been a home team series with the host covering five of the past six times.

Cal-State Fullerton doesn't have enough scoring to stay within this number. Hawaii ranks 19th in the country defensively allowing 62 points a game. The Titans average fewer than 69 points per game.

The Rainbow Warriors also have revenge motivation. The Titans beat them, 79-72 in overtime, when they hosted them on Jan. 7. Hawaii plays much better at home.

Nevada is extremely tough at home. I know first hand having covered games at Lawlor Events Center on the Reno campus during my sportswriting days. I don't see Fresno State staying within double-digits on the road against the Wolf Pack.

The Wolf Pack average nearly 79 points at home, outscoring  opponents by an average of 14 points. They are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games at Lawlor. 

Fresno State doesn't have the scoring to keep up. The Bulldogs average just 62 points a game, which ranks 353rd in the country. They are terrible at making 3-pointers and bad at defending against 3-pointers. 

The Bulldogs are 3-10 on the road. They have failed to cover in nine of their past 13 away contests. I'm not fooled by Fresno State's two game win streak, upsetting UNLV and defeating San Jose State. During their previous three games before those wins, the Bulldogs lost to Wyoming on the road, fell to Utah State at home and lost to Boise State on the road. They averaged just 56 points during those three matchups. 

Nevada has won and covered three in a row. In their last four home games, the Wolf Pack beat Utah State by 15 points, defeated New Mexico by three in overtime, knocked off San Diego State by nine and rolled past Air Force by 20 despite being in a letdown spot. Utah State, New Mexico and San Diego State are far superior to Fresno State. 

The Wolf Pack are 20-8 ATS the past 28 times at home when going against a foe with a losing road record. 

The Lakers have had some great teams. This isn't one of them. Acquiring D'Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt while getting rid of Russell Westbrook should help the Lakers. Just not right now for this matchup.

The Bucks have won 10 of their last 11 games, including the past eight, in compiling the third-best record in the NBA at 37-17. The Bucks also have the fourth-best mark against the spread mark (ATS) at 29-23-2. They rank No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. Milwaukee's Big Three of Giannis Antetokounmpo - solidly in the MVP running - Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday are all healthy. The Bucks are well-rested, too, following their 127-108 road victory against the Trail Blazers this past Monday.

The Lakers are always going to get respect from the oddsmaker because they are such a public team and have superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis. James broke the NBA's all-time scoring record two days ago at home. That drew the headlines. Oh, yeah, the Lakers lost that game to the Thunder as a 6 1/2-point favorite.

LA surrendered 133 points to the Thunder. Lack of defense has been a problem all season for the Lakers, who rank 28th in scoring defense permitting 118.6 points a game.

Davis has returned from a foot injury. But he hasn't sparked anything while playing second fiddle to James. LA is 3-4 in seven games since Davis has been back.

I find this another case of the Lakers getting too much respect on the line. They didn't make the playoffs last season. They aren't on track to make the postseason this season with a 25-30 record that puts them 13th out of 15 teams in the Western Conference.

The Lakers' ATS mark is similar to their won-lost record at 25-29-1. They are merely a .500 team at home.

LA doesn't have a good record either when stepping up in competition going 8-18-1 ATS the past 27 times versus above .500 opponents.

Milwaukee has revenge motivation for a 133-129 home loss to the Lakers on Dec. 2. The Bucks have covered in four of their last five road games against the Lakers.

Due to playing the Timberwolves at Minnesota on less than 24 hours rest this past Sunday, the Nuggets held out a number of key players, including Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon.

The result was a 128-98 Timberwolves' victory. Welcome to today's NBA where teams combat unfair schedule spots by resting their best players, thus conceding the game before it even begins. The Nuggets had just beaten the Hawks this past Saturday night for their third straight win before deciding to give up against Minnesota the following day.

This sets up a day of reckoning for the Timberwolves here. And I like the Nuggets, who will be back to full strength, to exact vengeance.

Denver is 7-1 ATS the past eight times following a loss.

The Timberwolves now are facing a fatigue factor - playing for the seven time in 12 days and third in five days - while missing players. Minnesota is minus injured Karl-Anthony Towns and suspended Austin Rivers. Kyle Anderson could be out, too, with a back injury. He's missed the last two games.

Don't count Wisconsin out. The Badgers, who have made the NCAA Tournament 22 of the past 23 seasons, have been one of the more disappointing teams but are showing life now. The buy sign is on them. They are healthy and off a confidence-building, 65-60, road win at Ohio State this past Thursday.

Wisconsin has defeated Northwestern 17 of the past 20 times at Kohl Center. The Wildcats have averaged just 51.8 points during those games.

This is a huge revenge game, too, for the Badgers. Northwestern defeated Wisconsin, 66-63, at home on Jan. 23. That snapped a seven-game Wisconsin win streak versus the Wildcats.

You have to go back to 2018 to find the last time Northwestern defeated Wisconsin in Madison. The Wildcats last swept a season series against the Badgers in 1996.

The Wildcats are a terrible shooting team ranking 341st in field goal shooting and their defense is showing slippage giving up an average of 77 points in their last two games against Michigan and Iowa.

Northwestern also is 1-4 ATS the past five times facing an above .500 opponent.

The Bucks and their superstar, Giannis Antetokounmpo, are playing extremely well with six consecutive victories. But Milwaukee has trouble with Miami. The Heat have matched up well to the Bucks. I see another close game here.

Only twice in their last 21 games have the Heat lost by more than five points.

Miami has the No. 2 defense in the NBA giving up 108.1 points. The Heat are 5-1 ATS the past six times on the road when going against a foe with a home winning percentage better than .600.

The Bucks still might be breathing a sigh of relief after a huge come-from-behind national TV win against the Clippers this past Thursday. Milwaukee pulled the game out, 106-105, by scoring the final seven points of the game.

Even with that win, Milwaukee is 3-8 ATS the past 11 times versus opponents with a winning record.

The Heat have covered the past four times against the Bucks, including posting 108-102 and 111-95 home victories on Jan. 12 and Jan. 14. Antetokounmpo and Kris Middleton, who is back healthy, didn't play in those games. Still, the Heat play the Bucks physically, tough and with confidence. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Heat pull out the outright win.

San Diego State couldn't beat Boise State last season and the Aztecs can't cover this inflated number against the Broncos this season.

Boise State held San Diego State to a puny 48.6 points a game in going 3-0 versus the Aztecs last season. Boise is just as strong this season while I have doubts about the Aztecs following their nine-point loss to Nevada this past Tuesday.

The Broncos and Aztecs are tied for first in the Mountain West Conference. Points should be at a premium in this matchup so I'll gladly take this many.

Boise State is playing extremely well going 8-2 in its last 10 games. Its only two losses during this span occurred on the road to New Mexico in overtime by two points and to Nevada on the road by two points.

The Broncos are proven road warriors going 19-6-1 in their last 26 away matchups for 76 percent. They've proven themselves on the road against top competition, too, going 21-8-1 ATS versus opponents with a home winning percentage greater than .600. San Diego State is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 home games.

I'm surprised William & Mary didn't open a mid-range favorite. I rate the Tribe much better than Hampton.

William & Mary has a superior record - 9-14 overall, 4-6 in the Colonial Athletic Association - compared to the Pirates' 5-17 mark and 2-8 CAA record.

The Tribe also proved that by defeating the Pirates, 81-65, as an 8-point home favorite on Jan. 11.

William & Mary is statistically better than Hampton, too, on both sides of the ball. The Pirates rank last in the CAA in shooting percentage and second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage. They also rate last in the league in rebounding margin. But where William & Mary holds a significant edge is 3-point shooting. The Tribe is 38th in the country in 3-point accuracy while Hampton is 344th in 3-pt defense.

The major concern about the Tribe is their lack of road victories. Some of this concern can be eased by the Tribe upsetting UNC Wilmington as a 12-point road 'dog on Jan. 14. Hampton hasn't been a good home team either going 1-5 ATS in its last six home contests.

Anytime the better team is getting points, I'm seriously interested. That's the case here with Northern Illinois. The Huskies are 8-13, 4-4 in the Mid-American Conference. Western Michigan is 6-15, 2-6 in the MAC.

Northern Illinois is 3-1 in its last four games, with all three victories during this span coming as an underdog. This includes an impressive 10-point victory against 17-4 Kent State a week ago.

Western Michigan, by contrast, has lost four in a row. The Broncos also played Kent State and lost by eight points to the Golden Flashes.

Numerous trends all point to the Huskies as the right side. Northern Illinois has covered 15 of its last 22 road games and is 9-2 ATS the past 11 times versus sub .500 opponents.

Western Michigan is 3-9 ATS the last dozen times meeting a foe with a winning percentage below .400.

The underdog is 8-1 ATS the past nine times these teams have met.

This may seem like a lot of points to lay, but I find the gap between these two Summit League teams much wider than the point spread. So I'm on Oral Roberts.

The Eagles have the offense to easily blow out South Dakota, which is weak defensively. Oral Roberts averages 84.5 points. That's fifth-best in the country.

South Dakota ranks 264th defensively allowing 72.4 points per game. The Coyotes have even a worse statistical ranking in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Eagles reach triple-digits in this home game against the 10-12 Coyotes, who are 2-7 on the road.

Oral Roberts, which has won 17 of its last 18 games, is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games when facing a foe with a road winning percentage of less than .400. South Dakota has failed to cover in eight of its past 11 away games.

I don't see the Eagles keeping up with Oral Roberts. They've been held under 65 points in four of their last seven games despite playing in the Summit League, which is a high-scoring conference.

The Bengals are 3-0 against the Chiefs during the past 12 months. They beat them at Kansas City in the playoffs last season. They beat the Chiefs this season with Joe Burrow outplaying Patrick Mahomes. Now Mahomes isn't healthy dealing with a high ankle sprain.

It's time to give Cincinnati its full due. The Bengals are the best team in the AFC.

Cincinnati's underrated defense is peaking at the right time holding their last six opponents to less than 16 points a game. The high-powered Bills, with the second-most points and yards in the NFL, were held to 10 points by the Bengals.

Mahomes will try to gut it out, but the ankle injury will limit his mobility. One of the reasons Mahomes has emerged as the best quarterback in the league is his ability to make plays on the move. Now he's strictly a pocket passer because of the ankle injury.

Burrow is right up there with Mahomes - and he's healthy with better skill position weapons in Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon. The big question with the Bengals was how would their revamped offensive line hold up minus three starters? That question was answered against the Bills last Sunday when the Bengals dominated putting up 27 points, 412 yards and 30 first downs. Mixon had his best rushing game in more than two months.

Cincinnati has been the hottest point spread team since the middle of last season covering 21 of its last 26 games. The Bengals have covered 69 percent of their last 54 road games. The Chiefs are 1-8-1 ATS during their past 10 home games.

Since Dec. 28, the Bulls have beaten many teams much better than the Hornets. The list includes the Bucks, Nets, 76ers, Jazz, Warriors and Hawks. Chicago was riding a three-game winning and covering streak going into this past Tuesday's game against Indiana.

The Pacers were minus Tyrese Haliburton, their best all-around player, and had lost seven in a row. The Bulls built a 21-point lead and looked in full control. But the Pacers stunned the Bulls by scoring 70 points in the second half to win, 116-110.

Chicago has a chance for redemption now playing the Hornets. Not only are the Hornets terrible - with the third-worst record in the NBA at 13-36 - but they are banged-up and in a bad situational spot.

Kelly Oubre and Cody Martin are out for Charlotte. LaMelo Ball missed Charlotte's last game because of an ankle injury. He's questionable as is Gordon Hayward, who has a groin injury. Ball is the Hornets' leading scorer and top assists man. Oubre is the team's No. 3 scorer. Hayward ranks fifth on the team in scoring. Martin is a reliable rotation player.

The Hornets are 5-16 at home. They have lost 10 of their last 13 games.

Charlotte ranks 28th defensively giving up 119.1 points per game. That figure climbs to 123.8 points going by their last eight games. The Bulls rank fifth in the NBA in field goal percentage and free throw percentage.

The spot isn't good either for the Hornets. They just returned from a four-game, seven-day road trip that concluded Tuesday night in Phoenix with a 31-point loss to the Suns. Charlotte has lost and failed to cover during its past five home games.

Samford is the top team in the Southern Conference at 8-0. Furman is 6-2 in the league. Samford has won eight in a row. This should be a very close game so I find this point spread to be out of whack in this mid-range.

Samford is the superior defensive team. The Bulldogs also have back guard Ques Glover, their leading scorer. He returned to action this past Saturday after being out since Nov. 30. Glover really bolsters Samford's rotation. I don't believe the oddsmaker took that into enough consideration in making this line.

Furman has failed to cover six of the last eight times it has met an above .500 opponent.

This has been a road team series, too, with the visitor covering eight of the last 11 times.

Certain high profile schools get too much respect from the linesmaker. North Carolina falls into that group.

Yes, the Tar Heels are 14-6. However, they are 7-12-1 (37 percent) ATS.

Syracuse is coming on winning and covering five of its last seven games. The Orange are 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS during their past 13 games. Only one of those losses was by more than seven points. The Orange are averaging 79.5 points in their last four games. They've scored at least 78 points in 10 of their past 12 games.

The Orange are at their point spread-best against strong competition covering five of the last six times when taking on an opponent with a winning percentage above .600.

North Carolina has been at its worst on the road. Not counting neutral site games, the Tar Heels are 1-4 SU and ATS away from home. Their only road victory came against 2-17 Louisville. North Carolina is 1-6-1 ATS in its past eight road contests versus foes with a winning home mark.

Sure it's a huge plus if Giannis Antetokounmpo can play having been out with knee soreness. But I see the motivated Bucks rolling past the Pistons even if Antetokounmpo can't go.

Milwaukee is in stop-the-pain mode losers of three of its last five games, including 114-102 to the Cavaliers this past Saturday. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS following a non-cover.

The Pistons are the worst team in the Eastern Conference. They are 1-6 in their last seven games. Detroit has lost by 12 or more points in seven of its last eight defeats.

There's also a situational factor working against Detroit. The Pistons just played in Paris this past Thursday where they were blown out by the Bulls, 126-108. So jet lag and concentration could be issues.

From a historical perspective the Bucks have dominated this series winning 15 of the last 16 times. Milwaukee is 2-0 versus Detroit this season with wins by two points and 25 points. Both of those victories were in Milwaukee. The Bucks are 7-1-1 ATS the past nine times meeting the Pistons in Detroit.

Kudos to Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars for staging the third biggest comeback in NFL postseason history in coming from 27 points down to nip the Chargers at home last week.

Unfortunately for the Jaguars, their season ends here.

The rested Chiefs are 10-1 in their last 11 games, winners of a five in a row. Andy Reid-coached teams are 27-4 following a bye. History is against Jacksonville. Wild-card winners who pulled upsets are 17-29 (37 percent) ATS the following week.

The Jaguars are inexperienced in big games and overmatched by the Chiefs - on both sides of the ball.

Kansas City is the top offensive team in the NFL ranking first in points and total yards. Prior to edging the Chargers and Justin Herbert, 31-30, the Jaguars had faced three straight opponents with bad quarterbacks: Jets with Zach Wilson/Chris Streveler, Texans with Davis Mills/Jeff Driskel and Titans with third-stringer Josh Dobbs. The Jaguars faced six above average quarterbacks since Week 4 going against the Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions, Cowboys and Chargers. Jacksonville surrendered an average of 31.1 points in those games.

Now the Jaguars draw Patrick Mahomes, who torched them for 333 passing yards and four touchdowns going 26-of-35 throwing in a 27-17 Week 10 home victory. The Chiefs netted 486 yards in that game, which is the most the Jaguars have allowed all season. The Chiefs built a 20-0 lead. They won't be coasting in this situation if they build up another early advantage.

I don't see Lawrence being able to keep up with Mahomes at this early stage of his career. The Chiefs showed tremendous defensive improvement, ranking 11th in total defense and No. 2 in sacks with 55. They also batted the most passes down from the line of scrimmage. Lawrence wasn't playing that well down the stretch until the second half against the Chargers. He had averaged 197.6 passing yards with a 1-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the last three weeks of the regular season, having trouble against the defenses of the Titans and Jets.

This is the game where Lawrence could really miss his injured left tackle Cam Robinson. Chris Jones produced 15 1/2 sacks and 29 quarterback hits for the Chiefs.

The 76ers are 3-0 on their five-game Western Conference road swing and playing well. But I see them getting tripped up by the Trail Blazers here. It's Philadelphia's fourth game in six days. The 76ers have failed to cover a spread during their last six games in Portland. 

The Trail Blazers are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 home games. Philadelphia is 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games when facing an opponent that has a winning home record. 

Portland is playing well, too. The Trail Blazers won and covered both of their home games against the Mavericks this past Saturday and Sunday. They then played the Nuggets tough in Denver two days ago in a loss that had a misleading final score. 

Look for Portland to bounce back being home again catching the 76ers fat and happy. 

The Nets must prove they can win without Kevin Durant. Or at least beat bottom-feeders. This is their chance.

I see the Nets being highly motivated in this matchup against the Spurs, who are 1-8 in their last nine games, including losing five in a row.

Brooklyn had won 14 of 15 games. But then superstar Durant went down with a knee injury and the Nets lost to the Celtics - no shame in that - and then suffered an upsetting, 112-102, home loss to the Thunder this past Sunday. Ben Simmons didn't play in the loss to the Thunder because of back pain.

Simmons has been cleared to play in this game, which is a boost to the Nets' shrinking rotation. Not only do the Nets want to redeem themselves for losing to the Thunder, but this also is the start of a five-game road trip consisting of games against the Suns, Jazz, Warriors and 76ers. Brooklyn doesn't want to start out with a loss to the 13-31 Spurs. So the Nets should be focused.

The Nets give up 11 fewer points per game than San Antonio, which ranks last in all of the major defensive categories, including scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. The Spurs' defense has been especially bad lately. The Spurs are surrendering an average of 130.6 points during their last five games.

The Nets have covered five of the last six games in this series.

Even if Lamar Jackson were to play, the Ravens aren't in the Bengals' class. Jackson is sure to be rusty, too, having been out for more than five weeks. Jackson relies on his mobility and that is going to be affected, too, by his knee injury. If Jackson doesn't start, this line will move much higher.

The Bengals are the hottest team in the AFC winners of eight in a row. They are 10-1 SU, 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games.

Led by Joe Burrow, the Bengals have scored at least 27 points in seven of their last 11 games.

The Ravens have managed five touchdowns in their last 23 quarters. They haven't broken the 17-point barrier in their past six games.

It's not just the quarterback position where the Dolphins are hurting. They have injuries to their best offensive lineman, left tackle Terron Armstead, most elusive running back, Raheem Mostert, and their two stud wide receivers, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

There's just not enough healthy firepower for the Dolphins to stay within double-digits of the Bills.

Buffalo was a coin flip against the Chiefs away from going to the Super Bowl last season. The Bills are just as good - if not better - this season. They are No. 2 in points scored and No. 2 in fewest points allowed.

The Dolphins were life-and-death with the Joe Flacco-led Jets at home last week to even sneak into the playoffs. Miami has a negative point differential on the season. This is the Dolphins' first playoff appearance since 2016. They are just happy to be here.

Josh Allen put up 42 touchdowns for the Bills. The banged-up Dolphins can't match Buffalo's firepower.

The Bills have tremendous motivation to reach the Super Bowl for stricken teammate Damar Hamlin.

The point spread is high - but not high enough. Look for a Bills' blowout.

Abilene Christian hasn't lost consecutive games since Nov. 23, a span of 10 games. I like the Wildcats to bounce back in a big way against UT Rio Grande following a tough 74-72 home loss to Southern Utah, the highest scoring team in the nation. The Wildcats held the Thunderbirds 13 points under their season average, but shot 16 fewer free throws than Southern Utah and missed 20 of 25 3-point shots.

The Wildcats like to play a methodical style stressing defense. That should work far better against struggling Rio Grande, which has lost four in a row.

Abilene Christian ranks in the top 90 in scoring defense giving up 65.4 points per game. The Vaqueros rank 351st defensively, allowing 78.8 points. The Wildcats also commit fewer turnovers and are the better 3-point shooting team.

The spot is right for the Heat to cover this number. Miami is 5-3 in its last eight games. The only bad loss the Heat have during this span is to the Lakers on the road by three points. The other two defeats were to the 27-13 Nuggets on the road by five points and at home to the sizzling Nets by one point this past Sunday. 

There is no way Miami overlooks Oklahoma City, which is four games below .500. Not only have the Thunder won two in a row, but the Heat's next two games are both against the Bucks. So the Heat can not afford a home defeat to this lowly opponent.  

This is only the Thunder's third road matchup in their last 13 games. Oklahoma City is fat and happy having won its last two games, both at home against the Wizards and Mavericks, who were missing superstar Luka Doncic, two days ago. 

The Thunder have lost their last four road contests - falling to the Magic by 11, Hornets by 8, Cavaliers by 7 and Grizzlies by 21 for an average away loss of 11.7 points. 

Oklahoma City is 13-9 at home, but 5-13 on the road. 

Unbeaten Georgia had its scare in its last game, edging Ohio State by one point in the Peach Bowl on New Year's Day. The Bulldogs are 28-1 the past two seasons. During this two-year span, they have won by two touchdowns or more 86 percent of the time.

TCU has been a great story getting to the national title game after being projected as a middle-to-bottom tier Big 12 team. But the Horned Frogs are not in Georgia's class. That's obvious by this point spread. But are Bulldogs two touchdowns better than the Horned Frogs?

Yes, they are.

Georgia is elite on both sides of the ball. They also have far bigger game experience than the Horned Frogs.

The Bulldogs had one of greatest college defenses of all time last season. This season they ranked No. 2 in scoring defense holding foes to 12.8 points. They had the nation's No. 2 run defense and ranked ninth in total defense. TCU can't match that. The Horned Frogs ranked 74th in total defense, 83rd in pass defense and 57th in scoring defense. They don't have NFL-caliber talent at many defensive spots like Georgia does.

Georgia QB Stetson Bennett is going to produce lots of points against TCU. Bennett really came into his own this season ranking in the top-10 in passing yards and completion percentage.

Max Duggan has been outstanding for TCU. But this is the toughest defense by far that he's seen. The Horned Frogs may not have their star running back, Kendre Miller, who is questionable for the game.

The Bulldogs defeated Oregon by 46 points, South Carolina by 41, Florida by 22, Tennessee by 14, Mississippi State by 26 and LSU by 20. Those were some serious whippings. I see Georgia's class difference showing up here.

The Bills are definitely a touchdown better than the Patriots, especially playing at home. Buffalo has defeated New England the past three times by an average of 18.6 points, while outgaining them by average of 143.3 yards. 

Buffalo ranks No. 2 in total yards and fourth in scoring at 28 points a game. The Bills also rank No. 2 in scoring defense and fifth in total defense. The Patriots rank 26th in total offense and are below average in scoring even though their defense has contributed seven touchdowns. Only once in their last 10 games have the Patriots gained more than 328 yards, being held to fewer than 300 yards seven times during this span. 
New England has a good defense, but statistically it is not as good as Buffalo's.

Not only has the Patriots' scoring total been skewed by their seven defensive touchdowns - most in the league since 2017 - but their defensive numbers have been bolstered by having had the good fortune to have played six backup quarterbacks. New England achieved seven of its eight victories going against the following quarterbacks: Mitchell Trubisky, Jacoby Brissett, Sam Ehlinger, Colt McCoy, Zach Wilson twice and Teddy Bridgewater/Skylar Thompson. 

So I find the Bills to be much superior to the Patriots. However, there is a key mental component here: How will the Bills react to their safety, Damar Hamlin, going into cardiac arrest this past Monday night against the Bengals? 

This is a much tougher question to answer. But I believe the Bills will come out hard and try to win big for Hamlin. His condition has shown much improvement allowing the Bills to concentrate. Mario Hamlin, Damar's father, told the Buffalo players to focus on the game because that's what his son would want. The Bills also have less wear and tear on them from Monday's game being called off after just nine minutes rather than the Patriots, who have been involved in close games each of the last three weeks. 

Surprised the spread is so low here? Don't be. The Bulls are in a tough situational spot. Chicago just ended the 76ers' 11-game home win streak, beating Philadelphia, 126-112, on Friday night. The 76ers were minus injured Joel Embiid.

The Bulls also ended the Nets' 12-game win streak with a 121-112 win this past Wednesday.

Back-to-back impressive victories for the Bulls. But now they fly back to Chicago where they'll have the rested Jazz awaiting them.

The Jazz halted a five-game losing streak by rolling past the Rockets, 131-114, on the road this past Thursday. Utah had lost its previous five games by an average of three points with the five defeats occurring by a combined 15 points.

Lauri Markkanen scored a career-high 49 points to lead Utah past Houston. Now Markkanen faces his former team. The Bulls are not only playing without rest, but this is their third game in four days and fourth game in six days.

The Bulls are reliant on their 3-point shooting. Zach LaVine hit 11 of 13 3-pointers against the 76ers. Utah, though, ranks in the top-10 in 3-point defense.

The Hawks are in stop-the-pain mode. They've lost four in a row. Two of those losses were in heart-breaking fashion. One was a double overtime road loss to the Warriors in their last game played two days ago. The other was a one-point loss to the sizzling Nets. 

The Kings return to Sacramento off a 117-115 road win against the Jazz on Tuesday night, scoring the winning basket with 0.4 seconds to play. 
Sacramento's concentration may be off along with a letdown factor following last night's narrow victory. The Kings haven't been home since Dec. 30. This marks their third game in four days and they are coming from Utah's high altitude. It's also the Kings' sixth game in nine days so there is a fatigue factor against them. 

The Kings have failed to cover in their last four home games. The Hawks have won the last three meetings between the two teams, including scoring a 115-106 home win on Nov. 23. 

This is a very low total as befitting two elite defenses. Both teams are 11-2. Mississippi State gives up the fourth-fewest points in the nation at 54.5 points. Tennessee surrenders only 53.2 points per game, third-best in the country.

Scoring is going to be at a premium here so I'll gladly accept this many points with the underdog Bulldogs in what shapes up to be a very low-scoring matchup.

Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last five games versus above .500 foes.

I see the wrong team being favored here. Both teams are off bad losses in their last game. But there's a difference.

Ohio lost 17-7 to Toledo in the Mid-American Conference championship game. The Bobcats displayed a lack of offense minus Kurtis Rourke, their star quarterback. They could manage only seven points and 262 yards in the MAC title game without Rourke, who is out for the season with a knee injury. Rourke was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year and easily Ohio's most important player.

Wyoming let up after clinching a bowl spot losing its last two games to Boise State by three points and getting blown out by Fresno State in its last game. 

I'm expecting a much better performance from the Cowboys, who have won their last three bowl games and are well-coached under Craig Bohl. The Cowboys beat Kent State, another MAC school, in their bowl game last season, 52-38. 

Ohio is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 non-conference games. 

Wyoming has the superior defense giving up 23.4 points a game. Ohio gives up 28.4 points. The Bobcats rank 113th in total defense and 130th in pass defense. 

So what do the Mavericks and Luka Doncic do for an encore after coming from nine points down with 33 seconds left in regulation to beat the Knicks in overtime with Doncic producing 60 points, 21 rebounds and 10 assists?

The answer is they don't have an encore. Instead the Mavericks suffer a massive letdown hosting the Rockets, who have the worst record in the Western Conference.

It's going to be difficult for the Mavericks to come down from the high of that improbable victory against the Knicks on Tuesday and Doncic's historic night. Prior to that game, teams trailing by nine points with under 35 seconds left were 0-13,884 during the last 20 years, according to research compiled by ESPN Stats and Info.

The Mavericks have been terrible as mid-sized-to-big favorites. They are 3-15-1 ATS when laying 5 or more points. They also are 1-8-1 ATS the past 10 times against sub .500 foes.

The Rockets are capable of springing upsets. They have defeated the Bucks, Suns and Bulls during their last nine games. Houston shouldn't lack motivation after getting buried by the Celtics in their last games two days ago.

Houston has covered in four of its last five visits to Dallas.

When last spotted, Coastal Carolina was losing 45-26 to Troy in the Sun Belt Conference title game. The Chanticleers were hammered by James Madison, 47-7, in their previous game before losing to Troy. That put Coastal Carolina's ATS record to 2-8 against opponents with a winning record. 

Coastal Carolina will have an interim coach, too, for this game. Its head coach, Jamey Chadwell, left Coastal Carolina on Dec. 4 to become head coach at Liberty. The Chanticleers also will be without its best offensive lineman, Willie Lampkin, and top pass rusher, Josiah Stewart.  

East Carolina played a tougher schedule than Coastal Carolina and has a more explosive offense behind five-year veteran Horton Ahlers. The Pirates rank 24th in total yards. They've committed only two turnovers! Coastal Carolina ranks 101st in scoring defense allowing 30.1 points, which is what East Carolina averages per game. The Chanticleers are 124th in pass defense. 

The Pirates are 13-5-1 ATS against above .500 teams. They have the more stable coaching staff, too, under Mike Houston. 

I don't see Kwahi Leonard and Paul George allowing the Clippers to lose to the Pistons. LA was on a 5-1 SU and ATS run until its last game - a 119-114 loss to the hot 76ers on the road. The Clippers blew a 20-point lead.

Now the Clippers are stepping way down in class. Detroit has the worst record in the NBA. The Pistons have lost five in a row. The Pistons have lost by six or more points in 13 of their last 14 losses. The Clippers should maintain their full intensity after blowing a 20-point lead in their last game.

The Clippers are 11-4 ATS the past 15 times versus opponents with a winning percentage below .400.

The Clippers rank No. 3 on defense. They give up 10 points fewer per game than the Pistons, who rank 29th defensively.

The collapse of the Rams from Super Bowl champions to one of the worst teams in football is complete. They are the Rams in name only. There's really nothing Sean McVay can do with such limited weaponry and a mediocre defense that is without Aaron Donald. 

Russell Wilson had his best performance of the season when he last played two weeks ago throwing for three TD's and 247 yards in a 34-28 loss to the Chiefs. Wilson rates a strong edge on Baker Mayfield and a Rams attack that ranks 30th in rushing, has backup wide receivers and has gone through 12 different offensive line combinations with scrubs manning all the spots. 

Denver has one of the best defenses in the league ranking No. 3 in total yards and scoring defense. 

The Rams managed only 156 yards last Monday against a Packers defense that isn't nearly as good as Denver's. The Rams have also become mediocre on defense giving up 24 or more points in five of their last six games. 

No Tyler Lockett, but the Seahawks still have enough firepower to compete against the high-powered Chiefs with Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker, DK. Metcalf, Noah Fant and Marquise Goodwin. The Seahawks were averaging 28.3 points in their last three games before having to face the 49ers' top-ranked defense.

The Seahawks are in must-win, desperation mode after going 1-4 in their last five games. None of Seattle's last six losses, though, have been by more than eight points.

The Chiefs win, but don't cover spreads. Since Week 2, they are 10-3, but just 2-10-1 ATS. Kansas City is 0-5-1 ATS the past six times laying more than seven points.

Pete Carroll has done one of his best coaching jobs. The Seahawks are on a mini-bye having last played Thursday. I expect Carroll to have a good game plan. The extra rest certainly can't hurt either.

This bowl game is a real letdown for Baylor, which beat Mississippi in the Sugar Bowl last season and had high expectations this season. Those expectations were not met as the Bears finished just 6-6. 

Air Force is one of the most unique and difficult teams to defend and practice against because the Falcons run the triple-option. The Falcons are the No. 1 rushing team in the nation. They have the third-leading rusher in the country, fullback Brad Roberts, and quarterback Haaziq Daniels, who has accounted for 20 touchdowns while averaging more than 20 yards per completion. 

Air Force is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 non-conference games because the Falcons are so unique and hard to prepare against. Baylor is just OK stopping the run. That's not good enough especially when combined with a perceived lack of motivation.

Baylor averages 33.6 points a game. I just don't see the Bears having the ball that much. Air Force led the nation in time of possession at 36:22. No team limited the opposition to fewer plays than Air Force. Look for the Falcons to control the ball, eat clock keeping Baylor's offense from getting into any kind of rhythm. 

The Bills are in a perfect spot to exact their revenge for an oddball, 21-19, road loss to the Dolphins back in Week 3. Buffalo lost to Miami despite outgaining the Dolphins by 285 yards. That game was played in brutally humid South Florida conditions back in September.

This matchup is just the opposite with a winter storm watch issued. Cold, possibly heavy snow and gusting winds are in the forecast. The warm-weather Dolphins with their warm-weather QB, Tua Tagovailoa, are not equipped for this type of weather element. The Dolphins rely on precision passing timing with Tagovailoa getting the ball out fast to speedsters Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Tagovailoa has never even played in temperatures below 37 degrees.

The Dolphins have been exposed as big-game frauds the past two weeks by the 49ers and Chargers. They managed just a combined 521 total yards of offense in those games. The Chargers were minus several of their best defenders, including safety Derwin James and pass rusher Joey Bosa.

MIami is giving 31.4 points on the road this season while going 1-5 ATS in their last six away matchups.

Josh Allen is much more comfortable in cold weather games. I expect the Bills to score against a mediocre Miami defense and the Dolphins' offense unable to counterattack.

Both teams are 11-2, are conference champions and each own 10-game win streaks. Troy won the Sun Belt. Texas San Antonio captured Conference USA.

The difference is Troy continues to be underrated by the linesmaker. The Trojans are 10-3 ATS. I believe they should be favored in this Cure Bowl matchup in Orlando, Fla.

Troy has the necessary defense to slow down the Roadrunners, who average 38.7 points. The Trojans rank eighth in scoring defense giving up 17.5 points per game and are 19th in total defense giving up 325.3 yards a game. The Trojans recorded 39 sacks, bad news for San Antonio's sixth-year QB Frank Harris. Linebacker Carlton Martial was the best defensive player in the Sun Belt.

The Roadrunners don't have nearly as good a defense as Troy, nor do they have the bowl pedigree having lost each of the past two seasons in bowl games. Troy has won its past four bowl games.

The Trojans got their offense in gear behind QB Gunnar Watson and running back KImani Vidal. The Trojans averaged 42.3 points in their last three games. The Roadrunners rank 90th in total defense and 101st in pass defense.

I like the Cavaliers to cover against the Spurs even if they remain without Donovan Mitchell and Kevin Love. So I'm going to take an early position on them anticipating the line would climb if Mitchell were to play.

Cleveland blew a 17-point lead to the Thunder, but still won by eight points this past Saturday despite not having Michell and Love.

The Spurs are on a min-winning streak having beat the Rockets and upset the Heat this past Saturday on the road. But the Spurs still are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games and own the worst home mark in the NBA at 4-10.

San Antonio is a below average rebounding team. The Spurs also give up the most points in the NBA. The Cavaliers should dominate the boards and inside scoring with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. The Spurs have been without their best rebounder and shot blocker, Jakob Poeltl, who has missed the past five games with a knee injury.

Cleveland has covered during each of its last four visits to San Antonio.

The Dolphins are 8-1 SU, 6-3 when Tua Tagovailoa starts and finishes a game. The one loss came this past Sunday at San Francisco when Miami ran into the top defense in the league.

The Chargers give up the third-most points in the NFL. They are likely to face the Dolphins' record-setting wide receiver tandem of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle without safety Derwin James and cornerback Bryce Callahan. James is in the discussion for best safety in the league. Miami had produced 30 or more points in four straight games prior to the 49ers.

The Chargers aren't going to be able to slow down Miami. Justin Herbert has too many injuries around him to keep up with Miami's high-powered offense. LA is averaging 21.4 points in its last seven games.

LA has not defeated an above .500 team all season. The step up is too high for the Chargers.

I don't get Cal Poly being favored here even though the Mustangs are home.

Portland State has a winning record, has beaten Oregon State twice and is the 10th-highest scoring team in the country averaging 85.3 points.

The Vikings have covered 10 of their last 14 road games. They are battle tested having played some tough teams, including Gonzaga, and hold a backcourt edge with Jorell Saterfield and Cameron Parker. Those two are combining for nearly 32 points a game.

Cal Poly shoots much worse from the floor than Portland State and ranks 313th in scoring. The Mustangs average 19 fewer points per game than the Vikings.

In the Zig and Zag world of the NBA, this spot sets up for the Jazz. Utah knocked off the Warriors by one point at home on Wednesday, but then the Jazz were beaten by an aroused Timberwolves squad, 118-108, last night. It was emotional for Minnesota because of Rudy Gobert returning back to Utah to face his old teammates.

The Jazz are 10-3-2 ATS following a double-digit home loss.

Denver, on the other hand, stole a victory at Portland last night, 121-120, on Jamal Murray's 3-pointer in the final second. Denver is 8-19 ATS following a victory.

It's a plus if the Jazz get back Lauri Markkanen, who missed last night's game due to illness. But back for Utah is point guard Mike Conley.

Death, taxes and the Bruins beating the Coyotes. Those are about the only three certain things in life. 

Boston has defeated Arizona 19 straight times. 

I'd be shocked if the Bruins didn't make it 20 in a row against the Coyotes, who haven't defeated Boston in 12 years. The Bruins are tied for the most points in the NHL. They rank first defensively and second in goals scored per game. 

The key question is can Boston beat Arizona by more than one goal so as to reduce laying such high vigorish? 

Yes. This is the Coyotes' first home game after a record-tying 14 consecutive road games that began back on Nov. 5. Not surprisingly, Arizona ran out of gas losing its last six games with the most recent defeat occurring two days ago to Edmonton by six goals. This marks the Coyotes' fifth game in nine days. They also have the distraction of finally being home after being gone close to five weeks. 

The Bruins rolled past the Coyotes, 6-3, at home in the first meeting between the two teams this season. Boston has won by multiple goals in 11 of its last 12 victories. 

Josh Jacobs, Davonte Adams and Maxx Crosby have lifted the Raiders back into playoff contention leading Las Vegas to three straight victories. The Raiders got hot last season to sneak into the playoffs and they're showing signs of repeating that this season.

The Rams, on the other hand, are as dead as Jimmy Hoffa.

Sean McVay thinks so little of backup quarterbacks Bryce Perkins and John Wolford, who has a neck injury, that the Rams claimed Baker Mayfield on waivers. The Browns gave up on Mayfield and now the Panthers had their fill of Mayfield.

Whoever is behind center for the Rams has to deal with backups - some fourth and fifth-stringers - at just about every offensive position. The Rams have had to use a different offensive line in every game because of multiple injuries. LA has no ground game and is minus its two best wideouts, Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson.

The Raiders are playing much better defense, limiting opposing running backs to 3.07 yards during the last three weeks, which is the third-lowest mark during this span. Las Vegas also has 11 sacks during its last three games.

Jacobs is the hottest runner in the NFL. He's averaging 179 yards rushing in his last four games. The Rams' defense is far less fierce up front minus Aaron Donald, who is out, along with run-stuffing nose guard A'Shawn Robinson. So Jacobs is in line for another huge performance.

Adams is averaging 137.6 receiving yards in his last three games. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey is the Rams' best player in their secondary and he's been playing poorly.

The Rams put forth a great effort this past Sunday against the Seahawks, a team the Raiders beat. However, the Rams came up short, 27-23, against Seattle. I doubt the Rams produce another ''A'' game. The Raiders are likely to have better, crowd support than the home Rams.

The Pacers may be excused if they are a no-show in this matchup against the Timberwolves. This marks the finale of a seven-game, 11-day road trip for Indiana. The Pacers surprised the Warriors with a 112-104 victory as a 12 1/2-point 'dog this past Monday playing without six players, including Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner and Chris Durate. Haliburton and Turner are questionable while Durate remains out with an ankle injury. 

Indiana is 0-4 ATS following a cover and 0-4 ATS when playing on one day's rest. 

The Timberwolves won their first game without injured Karl-Anthony Towns beating the Grizzlies by eight points. But then in their second game without him, this past Saturday, they fell 135-128 to the Thunder as 5 1/2-point home favorites. The Timberwolves lost their poise in the game. Rudy Gobert was ejected early and Minnesota was whistled for five technical fouls. That was Minnesota's last game. 

I see the Timberwolves bouncing back having had three full days to rest, recuperate and redeem themselves at home. Minnesota is 5-1 ATS when playing after three or more days of rest.

Minnesota also has defeated Indiana the last three times. This includes a 115-101 road win on Nov. 23. 

Cleveland returns home after losing, 92-81, to the Knicks this past Sunday. The Cavaliers are 5-8 on the road, but 10-1 at home. Going back to last season, the Cavaliers are 11-1-1 ATS during their last 13 games at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse.

The Cavaliers average eight more points per game at home and shoot 49.3 percent from the field compared to hitting 46 percent of their field goals on the road.

The Lakers are playing well, winners of three in a row. LA is 2-0 on its current road swing upsetting the Bucks this past Friday and defeating the Wizards on Sunday. The Lakers are 1-6 ATS the past seven times when meeting an above .500 opponent, though.

The Cavaliers should be the more motivated team defending home turf plus taking on LeBron James, their former face of the franchise. The teams met in LA on Nov. 6 and the Cavaliers won, 114-100.

Home field: Check mark to Buccaneers. It's an off-surface, too, for the visiting Saints. They are used to turf not grass. 

Quarterback: Check mark to Tom Brady over Andy Dalton. 

Defense: Check mark to the Buccaneers' fifth-ranked defense compared to the Saints' 21st ranked defense. 

These are three strong handicapping factors as to why I believe the Buccaneers will beat the Saints by more than a field goal. 

The Saints are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four true road games. They haven't won on a grass field all season, including last week when they were shut out by the 49ers at Levi's Stadium. 

Not only is Brady much superior to turnover-prone Dalton, but he has better receiving weapons with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Godwin is coming off his best game of the year since suffering a knee injury last December.

The Saints could be down two members of their secondary with cornerback Marshon Lattimore missing the last seven games due to an abdominal injury and safety P.J. Williams suffering a knee injury last week. 

Brady entered this Week 13 leading the NFC in passing yards. He's been picked off just once since opening week. Dalton has been intercepted six times in his last four games.

Tampa Bay gives up the fifth-fewest points per game in the NFL. The Bucs rank fifth in pass defense and ninth in total defense. The Saints rank 21st in scoring defense. They have the fewest takeaways in the league with just six. 

Much has been made about the Packers' steep descent this season. But look at the Bears. They are 1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS in their last nine games with five consecutive losses. Injuries and trades have made their defense a laughing stock.

Aaron Rodgers has owned the Bears, beating them 24 of 29 times. Rodgers has completed 76 percent of his passes for 1,221 yards with a 16-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last five games versus Chicago.

Rodgers is banged-up. But the Packers finally have their bye next week. So I expect Rodgers to be going all out. He'll be looking at a decimated Chicago secondary that is missing three starters, including both safeties. Chicago has the fewest sacks in the NFC with 16.

Matt LaFleur does one thing consistently right - and that's beat the Bears. He's the only Green Bay coach to win his first seven regular-season games against Chicago.

Justin Fields is expected to start, but he'll be missing his No. 1 wide receiver with Darrell Mooney done for the season with an ankle injury. Fields is a tremendous runner, but the Bears likely will be cautious with him. Fields has an AC-joint shoulder sprain and the Bears have their bye next week.

The Packers also may have finally found a special teams weapon as Keisean Nixon had two 50-plus yard returns against the Eagles last week.

The combination of North Carolina star QB Drake Maye and Clemson being eliminated from the College Football Playoffs helps put me on the underdog Tar Heels. 
South Carolina nipped Clemson, 31-30, as a two-touchdown road 'dog last week ending any Tigers' national title hopes. So this ACC championship game means far less to the Tigers now. 

North Carolina isn't going to be involved in the College Football Playoffs either, but the Tar Heels knew that. They've been pointing to this matchup for weeks knowing they had qualified for this title game. I think that factored in the Tar Heels not playing well in their last two games, upset losses to Georgia Tech and NC State after having won nine of their first 10 games. There was no incentive for them. There will here. 

There's a huge gap in quarterbacks. Clemson's D.J. Uiagalelei has been a major disappointment never adequately replacing Trevor Lawrence. Maye, on the other hand, has put up superstar numbers - 3,847 passing yards and 35 TD passes along with six rushing TD's. He leads the nation in total offense with 4,476 yards. Uiagalelei was terrible last season and he has been inconsistent this season even getting benched in spots. 

Notre Dame defeated Clemson by 21 points. North Carolina fell to the Irish by 13 points. That was the Tar Heels' only defeat of more than four points. 

Spot means a lot in the NBA. This is a good spot for the Pistons. 

Yes those 5-18 rebuilding Pistons, who are minus their top player, Cade Cunningham. He's out with a shin injury.

The Mavericks are off perhaps their most satisfying victory of the season beating the defending world champion Warriors at home on national TV two days ago, 116-113. It was the Warriors who eliminated Dallas in the Western Conference Finals last season. 

After this game, the Mavericks travel to New York to play the Knicks on Saturday. It's a huge revenge spot for the Mavericks. The Knicks embarrassed the Mavericks, beating them by 30 points in Dallas this past March. 

So this game not only is a letdown situation for the Mavericks, but a look-ahead spot, too, for them. I don't expect Dallas to bring its ''A'' game. 
This is the Pistons' third of a four-game homestand. They are 0-2 so far on the homestand with an eight-point loss to the Cavaliers and a 30-point beatdown loss to the Knicks in their last game this past Tuesday. Detroit coach Dwane Casey challenged his team after that loss to the Knicks calling out his players for soft defense and not showing any fight.

Expect the Pistons to go all-out in this one. Detroit has been banged up, but got back underrated Isaiah Stewart against the Knicks. Stewart put up 19 points versus New York. Stewart is the Pistons' top rebounder. 

Still unconvinced? OK, how about this: Despite their 5-18 record, the Pistons have a winning point spread mark. Dallas doesn't. The Mavericks are 5-14-1 (26 percent) ATS. Dallas is 1-10-1 ATS the past 12 times after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. 

The Mavericks also have lost and failed to cover during their last five road games. They are 1-7 away from home with that lone victory occurring in overtime against the Nets in  October. 

The Mavericks have been pointing to this marquee nationally-televised home matchup for a long time. It was Golden State who ended Dallas' season last year beating the Mavericks in five games during the Western Conference Finals. 

The Mavericks committed fewer turnovers than the Warriors during that series, but were done in by cold shooting. 

The Warriors' 27th-ranked defense has regressed very much since then especially on the road. Golden State is 2-9 SU and ATS away from home this season with its only road victories coming against the Rockets and Timberwolves. 

Dallas is on a four-game losing streak. But those losses have come to good teams losing to the Nuggets and then the last three on the road to the Celtics, Raptors and Bucks. 

Now the Mavericks are back home where they have covered seven of the last 10 times when hosting the Warriors.

Since firing Frank Reich, the Colts are 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS upsetting the Raiders on the road and losing to the Eagles by one point at home. The controversial hiring of Jeff Saturday has looked good so far. The players have responded to him.

The most disappointing part of the Colts' season has been their offensive line. If there' one thing Saturday, the long-time former Pro Bowl center for the Colts, knows something about it's an offensive line. He can get it fixed because there is talent there. There is also skill position talent. Jonathan Taylor is back healthy. He's rushed for 231 yards in his last two games.

Matt Ryan is a level higher than rookie Kenny Pickett right now. Pickett has thrown three TD passes and been picked off eight times. He's been sacked 14 times in his last three games.

The Steelers are 3-7 and have lost four straight road games. They entered this week ranked 26th in scoring defense allowing 24.4 points a game. The Colts have the better record and their defense entered the week giving up the 11th fewest points per game at 20. Indianapolis ranked fifth in pass defense. The Colts give up 5.0 yards per play and 307.6 yards per game compared to the Steelers allowing 5.8 yards per play and 375.5 yards a game.

Pittsburgh went into this week ranked 29th in scoring offense, averaging just 16.3 points a game. The Steelers won't have their second-best running back, Jaylen Warren. He's out with a hamstring injury.

Both teams should be highly motivated playing on national TV. But the Steelers' 37-30 home loss to the Bengals last week realistically ended any playoff hope. They are looking at their first losing season under Mike Tomlin. They should be in rebuild mode now.

The Colts have some momentum with the coaching switch to Saturday. They are just two games back in the loss column in the AFC South Division.

The bar is not set high here asking the Colts to win by a field goal.

The Bucs enter this matchup at their most healthy and fresh off a bye. The Browns were hoping to hang on until Deshaun Watson could take over. But that didn't happen. Cleveland is 3-7 with six losses in its last seven games.

Morale is bad with the Browns. So is their defense, which ranks tied for 31st giving up 26.9 points a game. Tom Brady has the passing attack to take advantage along with an upgraded ground attack thanks to more usage from outside threat Rachaad White, who is now properly factored into Tampa Bay's offense.

Tampa Bay has a top-six defense and its offense that has the second-fewest turnovers. Cleveland has only eight takeaways, which ranks 29th. The Buccaneers held Seattle's star rookie running back Kenneth Walker to 17 yards on 10 carries two weeks ago in their last game. Walker had averaged 102 yards rushing during his past five games.

This doesn't bode well for Nick Chubb, who the Browns heavily rely upon. The Buccaneers are going to be tough to run against with the Browns losing emerging center Ethan Pocic to a knee injury.

The Cavaliers come into Milwaukee fat and happy after celebrating Thanksgiving having swept their four-game homestand. They'll find an angry Bucks team awaiting them.

Milwaukee is 9-2 at home this season. However, one of its losses just occurred to the Bulls on Wednesday, 118-113.

The Bucks buried the Cavaliers, 113-98, when the teams last met nine days ago in Milwaukee. That was the seventh time in the last nine tries the Bucks have covered against the Cavaliers at home.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best player in the league averaging 30.5 points, 11.6 rebounds and 5.5 assists. The Bucks get back Wesley Matthews, too, to boost their rotation.