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Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
11-01-17	Bucks +3.5 v. Hornets	Top	121-126	Loss	-108	12 h 3 m	Show
I prefer the Hornets taking points rather than laying especially against this opponent. The Bucks have beaten Charlotte during the past three meetings, including 103-94 at home 10 days ago. The Bucks beat the Hornets by nine points despite missing injured point guard Malcolm Brogdon, who is back from a sprained ankle. Giannis Antetokounmpo gives Milwaukee the best player on the court. Antetokounmpo has scored at least 28 points in every game while filling up all the statistical categories. He had 32 points and 14 rebounds in the earlier victory against the Hornets. Milwaukee lost at home to Oklahoma City last night. The Bucks were flat in that game. But only Kris Middleton logged more than 30 minutes. Look for a much stronger effort and performance from the Bucks here. Milwaukee is 7-1-1 ATS the past nine times when playing without rest. The Bucks also have covered in their last six visits to Charlotte.
10-30-17	Spurs +3.5 v. Celtics	Top	94-108	Loss	-107	10 h 20 m	Show
When the games mattered, the Spurs did not lose three in a row during the regular season all last season. But now the Spurs have dropped consecutive games falling to the Magic and Pacers. I don't see them losing three straight. San Antonio has beaten Boston 11 in a row with six coming at TD Garden. Yet the oddsmaker sees no Kawhi Leonard and a hot Boston club that has won four in a row. The Celtics' win streak, however, has come against the 76ers, Knicks, Bucks and Heat minus Hassan Whiteside. The Bucks are the only one of that group with a winning record. The Spurs have a deep bench, Pau Gasol is playing better and LaMarcus Aldridge is off to a great start scoring more than 20 points in each of the Spurs' six games
10-25-17	Pacers v. Thunder -14.5	Top	96-114	Win	100	20 h 10 m	Show
Not only are the Thunder far superior to the Pacers - especially with big man Myles Turner out for Indiana - but the spot sets up perfect for Oklahoma City. The Pacers just stunned the Timberwolves, 130-107, on Tuesday night. Now this young Pacers squad has a second straight road game playing at Chesapeake Energy Arena, one of the toughest venues in the league. The Pacers then return home and don't play again until Sunday. They've been on the road since Saturday. I can't see the Pacers producing a strong effort here. I do see the Thunder motivated for a kill spot. Oklahoma City has been sitting around stewing since losing 115-113 at home on Sunday to Minnesota when Andrew Wiggins banked in a 3-pointer at the buzzer to give the Timberwolves a stunning victory. The Thunder were victimized by several bad calls at the end in what was one of the worst officiated games of the season. A subplot to this matchup is Paul George going against his former teammates. George will be psyched for this matchup as he didn't like how his exit was handled by the Pacers. This would be a tough matchup for the Pacers even if they had Turner, their best player, shot-blocker and rim-protector. Without Turner, who remains out with a concussion, the Pacers may be the worst team at defending the paint. Minnesota scored more than half of its 107 points in the paint against Indiana last night. Russell Westbrook, George and Carmelo Athony can take advantage. These three superstars would like to put on a show for their home fans. This is a golden opportunity for them.The stage is set.
10-24-17	Astros +1.5 v. Dodgers	Top	1-3	Loss	-135	12 h 50 m	Show
As great as he is, Clayton Kershaw does not have a good history in the postseason. He's 6-7 with a 4.40 ERA in 21 playoff appearances, including 17 starts. If minus 1 1/2 runs were attached to Kershaw's last 11 starts the Dodgers would be just 6-5 in those games. Kershaw is going against a Houston offense that led the majors in runs, batting average and slugging percentage. The Astros also hit the second-most home runs. This is remarkable in that they had the fewest strikeouts of any team. The Astros also can run finishing eighth in stolen bases with 88. Jose Altuve gives Houston the best player in baseball. The Dodgers are in a vulnerable spot in this Game 1. LA hasn't played in four days. Batting practice can't make up for that long delay. The Astros have had two days off. Their batteries are still charged up after they got past the Yankees in seven games by winning Games 6 and 7. The Dodgers were fortunate to have met the Diamondbacks, who lacked playoff experience, and sleepwalking Cubs in the postseason. The Astros are a clear step up, winner of 101 games and with two studs heading their rotation, Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander. Keuchel goes here. The AL Cy Young Award winner of two seasons ago, has a lifetime playoff mark of 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA in six career postseason appearances, including five starts. Houston is 11-3 the past 14 times Keuchel has pitched on the road. Given Kershaw's poor postseason history, the starting pitching matchup is far closer than this price indicates. The Astros have the better offense and are in good spot with the Dodgers possibly being rusty and overconfident after dominating the NL playoffs. I do give the Dodgers a checkmark for their late-inning relief pitching. So I believe the best way to play this game is taking the Astros on the run line especially in what's being projected as a low-scoring game.
10-22-17	Pelicans -3.5 v. Lakers	Top	119-112	Win	100	18 h 41 m	Show
The Lakers not only were last in the NBA defensively in giving up points per 100 possessions last season, but they had the worst mark in that key defensive category this decade. LA's defense doesn't look much better this season either. But all the publicity is about rookie point guard Lonzo Ball. He is an exciting talent. But he's also a poor shooter - 13-for-33 from the floor - and he doesn't play much defense. Same with his backcourt mate Brandon Ingram. They could be the worst defensive backcourt in the NBA. The Lakers were blown out in their opener by the Clippers and then defeated the Suns, who could be the worst team in the NBA. Now they get the Pelicans. New Orleans is dropping way down in class. The Pelicans opened with a road loss against the unbeaten Grizzlies, who just upset the Warriors last night, and then lost at home to the Warriors, 128-120. The Pelicans played well in that defeat. They would have beaten many teams with that display just not the defending world champions. The Pelicans are putting a lot of emphasis on getting their first victory here. They should dominate the frontcourt with Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. Both monsters are off to strong starts as they get more and more comfortable with each other. Davis is averaging 34 points and 17.5 rebounds while Cousins is putting up 31.5 points and12 rebounds per game.
10-22-17	Jets v. Dolphins -3	Top	28-31	Push	0	127 h 49 m	Show
The linesmaker opened this game Miami minus 3 at home. This basically is saying then that these two teams are even if you factor in about a three-point home field edge for the Dolphins. My checkmarks give the Dolphins far more edges than the Jets. The situational element also favors Miami. The Jets are coming off a huge effort and a near-victory against their arch-rival the Patriots. The Dolphins have quick revenge after being embarrassed by the Jets in Week 3. The Jets thoroughly outplayed the Dolphins in their 20-6 win. The Dolphins were lucky they weren't shut out. But there were extenuating circumstances. Hurricane Irma had caused the Dolphins to not play opening week. The Dolphins then went to the West Coast and beat the Chargers in Week 2. Then they had to fly to the East Coast to play the Jets. Miami's offense still was a work in progress so early in the season with Jay Cutler getting in sync with his new team. The Dolphins' offense isn't good by any means. But they have some stability now with all that back-and-forth traveling, including a trip to London in Week 4, finally ending. The Dolphins showed a lot of heart coming back from a 17-0 halftime deficit to upset the Falcons on the road this past Sunday. Cutler did enough for Miami to win that game and Jay Ajayi had his best game of the season with 130 yards rushing. Ajayi will be the best running back on the field. Jarvis Landry is the best wideout of the two teams. DaVante Parker would be the second-best wideout if he's recovered from an ankle injury. Josh McCown is not better than Cutler. The Dolphins definitely have the better defense ranking third in fewest points allowed per game and 11th in fewest yards given up. The Jets were extremely fortunate to beat the Browns two weeks ago. Cleveland outgained New York by 202 yards and had eight more first downs. The Browns were done in by three turnovers and two missed field goals. This is the spot to recognize the Jets for being who we thought they were - a terrible team.
10-15-17	Patriots -9.5 v. Jets	Top	24-17	Loss	-110	129 h 8 m	Show
There's actually a bit of line value in taking the Patriots with the Jets riding an improbable three-game win streak. Credit to the Jets for beating the Dolphins and Jaguars. They were fortunate, though, to defeat the winless Browns. The Jets are putting forth an effort. They will give their best shot here in this division rivalry. However, they are no match for the Patriots. The talent gap between these two offenses is the size of the Grand Canyon. Tom Brady remains a top-three quarterback. He's leading the NFL in passing yards and has the second-highest quarterback rating. The Patriots have outstanding wide receivers and excellent running back versatility and depth. Rob Gronkowski should be able to play this week, too. The Jets have a popgun offense made worse in that their best runner, Bilal Powell, isn't expected to play. The Patriots are on extra rest since they played last Thursday. The Patriots' defense finally showed some improvement against a dangerous Tampa Bay offense. Belichick should be able to make further fixes with the added preparation time. The Patriots' disappointing cornerbacks shouldn't have any problems handling the Jets' non-descript wide receivers. This is a kill spot for the Patriots. They're not going to let up against this hated foe either.
10-14-17	New Mexico +2 v. Fresno State	Top	0-38	Loss	-110	34 h 44 m	Show
Fresno State went 1-11 last season and 3-9 two years ago. But now there actually is bowl talk surrounding the Bulldogs. Why is this? Because Fresno State is 2-0 in the Mountain West Conference. The Bulldogs are improved from last season. But let's not jump ahead of ourselves with this team. Fresno State's two conference victories have been against Nevada and San Jose State, one of the worst teams in the country. Nevada is way down, too, this season. Fresno State shouldn't be favored against New Mexico. The Lobos had a bye last week. They rolled past Air Force, 56-38, two weeks ago in their last game. The Lobos put up 509 yards on just 50 offensive snaps against Air Force. I don't see Fresno State being able to handle New Mexico's unique option schemes. Look for the Bulldogs to get exposed here.
10-12-17	Eagles v. Panthers -3	Top	28-23	Loss	-115	65 h 53 m	Show
OK, I'm sold now that Cam Newton is the MVP Cam Newton of two years ago. He's thrown for 651 yards and accounted for seven touchdowns during the last two weeks. Carolina is averaging 30 points during this span. The Eagles' secondary is well below average and their pass rush is down without injured Fletcher Cox. He's missed the last two games and isn't likely to return to the lineup on a short week. Carolina has held five of its last seven opponents to 20 points or less at home. The Eagles are short on running backs with Wendall Smallwood injured and Darren Sproles out for the season. The Eagles also will be without right tackle Lane Johnson, one of the best offensive tackles in the NFL. He suffered a concussion this past Sunday. Philadelphia has failed to cover in seven of its last 10 away contests. It's a big disadvantage for the road team playing on Thursday because of the short week. In the Eagles' case, this is made worse by facing a non-division foe.
10-09-17	Edmonton -7 v. Montreal	Top	42-24	Win	100	102 h 35 m	Show
Edmonton overachieved when it opened the season 7-0. But the Eskimos aren't as bad as their current six-game losing streak shows with five of the defeats coming to Calgary, Winnipg and Saskatchewan. Those teams own the three best records in the CFL. Look for the Eskimos to halt their losing streak against Montreal, the worst team in the CFL. The Alouettes haven't been good for a few years. They've struggled offensively, but had a decent defense. Now their defense has fallen apart surrendering an average of 38 points per game during their last seven games, all losses and non-covers. Montreal's offense remains bad, too, failing to break the 20-point barrier in all but one of those seven defeats. Montreal management tried to shake things up firing head coach Jacques Chapdelaine and defensive coordinator Noel Thorpe a couple of weeks ago. That hasn't helped. The Alouettes have lost their last two games by a combined 62 points. Edmonton needs to improve its ground attack. The Eskimos took a key step to doing just that trading for C.J. Gable, who just gained 157 yards on 18 carries and scored two touchdowns for Hamilton last week. Gable should rev up Edmonton's offense. The Eskmos have covered six of the last seven in the series.
10-03-17	Twins +1.5 v. Yankees	Top	4-8	Loss	-105	29 h 58 m	Show
The Yankees have loads of young talent. But that young talent is now on the playoff stage for the first time with all the pressure on them. The Twins aren't flashy. They don't have the power, or rising superstarts, the Yankees do. But they don't beat themselves and are tough on the road going 44-37. The pitching matchup is 23-year-old Luis Severino, making his first playoff start, against veteran Ervin Santana. This isn't a fade on Severino, who had his breakout season. But more a value play to get 1 1/2 runs with the Twins figuring Santana will keep them in the game. Santana went 10-3 on the road with a 2.71 ERA in 17 away outings. He's been solid versus the Yankees the past three seasons posting a 3.16 ERA in 25 2/3 innings.
10-01-17	Bengals -3 v. Browns	Top	31-7	Win	100	96 h 56 m	Show
The Bengals are down this year. But they still are two levels higher than the Browns, who are 1-18 in their last 19 games. The Bengals have dominated this series winning and covering the last five times with every win during this span occurring by at least 13 points. Cincinnati has a much stronger defense than Cleveland and its skill position players are superior, too. The Browns have no wide receiver near the level of A.J. Green. Corey Coleman is Cleveland's top wideout and he's out. Joe Mixon also is better than any running back Cleveland has. I'm not an Andy Dalton fan, but he rates much higher than rookie Deshone Kizer. Dalton has thrown nine TD passes with no interceptions during his last four games against the Browns. The Browns were missing their best defensive player, linebacker Jamie Collins, last week due to a concussion. It's an added plus for the Bengals if Collins is out again.
09-30-17	San Jose State v. UNLV -12	Top	13-41	Win	100	93 h 18 m	Show
UNLV received a lot of bad publicity for losing to Howard in its first game. The Rebels were caught looking ahead to a revenge game against Idaho the following week. The Rebels beat Idaho and then were bashed by Ohio State this past Saturday. But now there couldn't be more of a difference as the Rebels go from on the road against the Buckeyes to hosting San Jose State. The Spartans are one of the worst teams in the country. The Rebels are a borderline bowl team. They can't afford a loss here and are aware of the spread after losing to Howard as a 45-point favorite. The Rebels have the offense to pour it on the Spartans, who give up 45.2 points per game and whose defense has been on the field the most of any team in the country by a wide margin. Utah State just beat the Spartans by 51 points this past Saturday. UNLV isn't strong defensively, but San Jose State averages fewer than 17 points a game and has quarterback problems. This is a lay-up game for the Rebels and they won't take their foot off the gas with the recent loss to Howard still fresh.
09-29-17	White Sox v. Indians -1.5	Top	1-10	Win	100	7 h 36 m	Show
The Indians are 34 games ahead of the White Sox in the AL Central. Cleveland is 41-10 in its last 51 games. But don't expect the Indians to coast. That's because they are only one game ahead of Houston for the No. 1 seed in the AL playoffs. The key here to avoid such heavy juice is to lay 1 1/2 runs with the Indians. Cleveland's last five victories have all been by more than one run. That should be the case again today in a pitching matchup of Mike Pelfrey versus Trevor Bauer, who has finally lived up to his vast promise. Bauer has 16 victories and been a moster during the second half of the season going 9-1 with a 2.69 ERA during his last 13 appearances, including 12 starts. It's a mystery how Pelfrey stays in a big league rotation. He's one of the worst starters in baseball. He's 3-11 this season with a 5.52 ERA. He's made three appearances against the Indians this season and is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA. The Indians faced him three weeks ago and got to him for seven runs on eight hits in four innings. The White Sox have lost 37 of their last 52 road games and are 0-7 in Pelfrey's last seven starts.
09-24-17	Ravens v. Jaguars +4	Top	7-44	Win	100	127 h 44 m	Show
Forget perception. These two teams aren't that far apart. Baltimore hasn't made the playoffs the past two seasons. The Ravens have a below average offense made worse by several key injuries. The Jaguars are better coached now and an ascending team with plenty of defensive talent. There's also another major factor here: This game is at Wembley Stadium in London. Jacksonville is trying to establish London as a second home base. The Jaguars have played the last five years in London, winning the past two times. Baltimore has never played an overseas game. Anyone who has flown overseas can tell you how much a physical toll the time difference makes. There's also a mental focus. The Ravens are riding high at 2-0 and have arch-rival Pittsburgh on deck next week. This is a flat spot for them. The Jaguars, on the other hand, are in a foul mood after laying an egg at home against the Titans this past Sunday. The Jaguars know they can play well against this opponent having defeated the Ravens on the road in 2015. They nearly beat the Ravens in Baltimore last season losing 19-17 on a 54-yard field goal with 1:04 left. Blake Bortles is more game manager these days with heavy duty rookie Leonard Fournette to keep defenses honest. Joe Flacco isn't 100 percent after missing August recovering from a herniated disc in his back. He's alerady lost his most reliable running back, Danny Woodhead, and top offensive lineman, Pro Bowl guard Marshal Yanda, to injuries.
09-23-17	Rutgers v. Nebraska -13.5	Top	17-27	Loss	-110	97 h 51 m	Show
Before Mike Riley perhaps slinks back off to Oregon State, his Cornhusker should stop-the-pain given their home field advantage and lowly opponent, Rutgers. Nebraska is coming off back-to-back non-league losses to Oregon and a double-digit home upset loss to Northern Illinois. The last time the Cornhuskers lost two in a row non-conference games was 1957. Riley and Nebraska are under extreme pressure to perform better. Fortunately the Cornhuskers draw Big Ten patsy Rutgers. The last time the Scarlet Knights won a Big Ten game was 2015. Rutgers has lost 14 consecutive Big Ten contests. The Cornhuskers have underachieved all season. But they certainly have the talent to bury Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are in a different frame of mind after snapping a nation-long 11-game loss streak with a victory against Morgan State.
09-22-17	Marlins v. Diamondbacks -1.5	Top	11-13	Win	100	10 h 14 m	Show
The Marlins face a double whammy here going against a dominant Zack Greinke on the road and pitching Adam Conley. The Diamondbacks have been absolutely dominant when Greinke takes on sub .500 teams winning 22 of the last 26 times. Arizona is 13-1 the past 14 times Greinke has pitched against opponents with a losing record at Chase Field. Greinke has a 1.56 ERA in his last five stats. Lifetime versus the Marlins, Greinke is 5-0 with a 2.75 ERA. Greinke has a 1.23 ERA this month and has held opposing hitters to a below .200 average at home this season. Conley has stuggled most of the season and is in bad form with a 5.96 ERA in his last five starts. He's allowed seven homers in his past four starts. That bodes bad for him at hitter-friendly Chase Field against a powerful Diamondbacks lineup featuring Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock and J.D. Martinez.
09-17-17	Packers v. Falcons -2.5	Top	23-34	Win	100	128 h 14 m	Show
Maybe the Packers will finish as the best team in the NFC, but right now the Packers defense isn't ready for Atlanta. Green Bay's defense showed improvement in Week 1. That was at home, though, against Seattle, which has one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Now the Packers go on turf to take on the Falcons playing their first regular-season game in their new $1.5 billion dollar stadium. The last time these two teams got together was in the NFC championship game, also in Atlanta. The final was Atlanta 44, Green Bay 21. The score wasn't even that close. The Falcons bolted to a 31-0 lead and coasted. The Falcons also beat the Packers during the regular season in Atlanta last year. Matt Ryan threw for a combined 680 yards in those two contests versus the Packers, while accounting for eight touchdowns. Ryan has his main weapons back. The Packers' young and inexperienced secondary isn't nearly ready for this kind of early road test. Look for Julio Jones to have a monster game. Defensive guru Dan Quinn has Atlanta's defense on the upswing. Aaron Rodgers isn't going to be able to keep up with Ryan. The Packers' offensive line isn't as good as it was last season. They are going to have a great degree of difficult playing in this setting especially if star right tackle Bryan Bulaga remains out with an ankle injury.
09-11-17	Chargers +3.5 v. Broncos	Top	21-24	Win	100	71 h 20 m	Show
San Diego is in bounce-back mode after putting a league-high 21 players on the injured reserve last season. Philip Rivers is a stud quarterback and the Chargers have the pass rushers with Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram and a good secondary to keep the Broncos' offense in check. Trevor Siemian can't compare to Rivers. He's coming off a 3-5 record during the past eight games where he had a 10-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Siemian is lucky he doesn't have any real competition in Denver because he's one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. Denver averaged a mediocre 22.2 points in 2015. That average sank to 20.8 last season when the Broncos also finished 27th in total offense. Their offense doesn't look any better this season unless Jamaal Charles can somehow recapture his magic. The Chargers have more firepower with Melvin Gordon, a healthy Keenan Allen and emerging tight end Hunter Henry not to mention the still reliable Antonio Gates. Denver's defense remains top tier, but it did lose T.J. Ward.
09-10-17	Giants +4.5 v. Cowboys	Top	3-19	Loss	-110	1090 h 53 m	Show
The Cowboys couldn't solve the Giants' defense last year averaging just 13 points versus New York in two games. The Giants won both of those games. They've now covered five in a row against Dallas winning three and losing the other two by just one and three points, respectively. The Giants have many of their same starters back on defense, including a strong secondary that is able to negate Dez Bryant and take advantage of Dak Prescott's inexperience. On the flip side, the Cowboys have a vulnerable secondary that Eli Manning can exploit with his improved receiving group that now includes Brandon Marshall to go with Odell Beckham Jr. and emerging Sterling Shepard. A lot went Dallas' way last year. You could make a strong argument the Giants are the better team. They were a hot 9-2 down the stretch last season before being eliminated in the playoffs by the Packers. Dallas' home field advantage is not worth this many points as the Giants very well could win this game straight-up.
09-09-17	Minnesota +2.5 v. Oregon State	Top	48-14	Win	100	58 h 3 m	Show
Minnesota is the right side here. The Gophers aren't flashy. But they don't need to be here. They will control the trenches and dominate ball possession with a solid ground game featuring Rodney Smith running behind a strong offensive line. Oregon State has yet to show it can stop the run. The Beavers were pushed around by Colorado State and by Portland State, a FCS school. Oregon State's 58-27 opening week loss to Colorado State looks even worse with the Rams losing to Colorado, 17-3, last week. Oregon State was fortunate to beat Portland State winning, 35-32, as a 26 1/2-point home favorite. Portland State ran for nearly 300 yards against Oregon State. Minnesota's P.J. Fleck is an upper tier coach. He's sharp enough to play the cards he's dealt with - and that's to grind. That formula sets up well for this matchup. The Gophers don't have to do anything fancy here. Oregon State's home field advantage is reduced, too, for this game because school isn't in session yet and there is an air quality warning due to forest fires in the area that could lower attendance.
09-07-17	Chiefs v. Patriots -8.5	Top	42-27	Loss	-110	51 h 51 m	Show
There's a double-digit class difference here especially with the Patriots playing at home where they have covered 75 percent of their past 26 games. The Chiefs overachieved to finish 12-4 last season. They ranked 13th in points scored and 20th in yards gained. They also gave up the eighth-most yards. The Chiefs achieved their sterling record by big plays from special teams and a league-best plus 16 turnover ratio. The Patriots aren't going to make mistakes, or get beat on special teams. No team is better coached than New England. New England won the Super Bowl and looks even better on paper this season. Even losing Julian Edelman, Tom Brady still has a wide assortment of weapons, including deep threat Brandin Cooks, a healthy Rob Gronkowski and four verstailte running backs. The Chiefs can't come close to matching that firepower. The Patriots upgraded their secondary, too, signing cornerback Stephon Gilmore. Alex Smith threw for more than 300 yards just once in 16 games last season. He's done that just four times in his last 65 games. So the Chiefs are not a good backdoor type team. Kansas City had a chaotic off-season, too. There were surprising upper management changes with general manager John Dorsey getting fired. Former stalwarts Jamaal Charles, Jeremy Maclin and nose tackle Dontari Poe all moved on. Derrick Johnson and Justin Houston have to prove they are completely healthy.
09-05-17	Cubs -1.5 v. Pirates	Top	3-4	Loss	-105	10 h 3 m	Show
The Cubs are looking to redeem themselves after an embarrassing 12-0 loss to the Pirates Monday. They have the right pitching matchup to accomplish just that. Kyle Hendricks led the NL in ERA last season. He's become steady again posting a 2.31 ERA in eight starts since coming off the DL. He hasn't allowed more than three runs during any of those eight outings. Hendricks has a 2.45 ERA in two starts versus Pittsburgh this season. The Cubs have a deeper bullpen, too, than the Pirates and their top bullpen arms are rested. The Pirates are in rebuilt mode. So they've elected to skip Ivan Nova's turn in the rotation in order to look at youngster Steven Brault, who isn't ready to become a big league starter yet. Brault has a 5.93 ERA in 13 2/3 innings. This is his first start of the year. Brault made seven starts for the Pirates last season posting a 4.26 ERA. He holds a hideous 9.35 lifetime ERA versus the Cubs in four appearances.
09-04-17	Edmonton +10.5 v. Calgary	Top	18-39	Loss	-110	7 h 17 m	Show
The Eskimos are calling this their biggest game of the year. The line is inflated so the Eskimos with this many points are the right side. Edmonton has lost two in a row after opening 7-0. I don't see the Eskimos being flat a second straight week. The Eskimos are starting to get their injured players back, including wide receiver Brandon Zylstra. Wide receivers Adarius Bowman and Vidal Hazelton both are expected to play now, too, along with offensive lineman Simeon Rottier. The Stampeders are the best team in the CFL. But Calgary hasn't played an above .500 opponent during its last four games. I don't see the Stampeders winning by double-digits here.
09-01-17	Colorado State v. Colorado -6	Top	3-17	Win	100	133 h 6 m	Show
This is a tough spot for Colorado State having opened with a victory this past Saturday against Oregon State in impressive style at their new $220 million dollar stadium. The Rams have to travel to Denver for this neutral site game with one less day of normal practice time. That's going to hurt them against the up-tempo Buffaloes especially in high altitude. Colorado buried the Rams, 44-7, last year. While I don't see the score being that lopsided again, Colorado is a clear right side and should win by double-digits. Don't be fooled by the Rams returning nine starters on defense. Their defense still is inexperienced and not good. The Buffaloes have a high powered attack with excellent receiving depth, a stud running back in Phillip Lindsay and an upgrade at quarterback with Sefo Liufau. Colorado State isn't going to be able to trade points with the Bufaloes.
08-31-17	Buffalo +24 v. Minnesota	Top	7-17	Win	100	11 h 19 m	Show
There's some hype here this being P.J. Fleck's first game as head coach of Minnesota. I like Fleck. But his Gophers are far from a powerhouse. They can't cover a number this high against an improved Buffalo squad. Fleck inherits a very young team with only four players on offense and four on defense who have started double-digit games during their careers. Nearly half of Minnesota's players are either freshmen or redshirt freshmen. The Gophers have a solid ground attack, but are untested at quarterback. Denny Croft and Conor Rhoda both should play under center. They've combined for only 34 career throws and one start. Minnesota ranked 111th in passing offense last year. Buffalo should be much better than its 2-10 mark of last season. Tyree Jackson is a dual threat quarterback, who flashed last season. His new quarterback coach is Jim Zebrowski, who was fired at Minnesota following the 2015 season. So he'll know the Gophers. The Bulls took their lumps defensively last season being extremely young. They return eight defensive starters.
08-25-17	Saskatchewan +6 v. Edmonton	Top	54-31	Win	100	33 h 33 m	Show
Saskatchewan is coming on and this spot sets up well for the Roughriders. The Roughriders have won three of their last five and off probably their most impressive performance of the season beating BC, 41-8, two weeks ago. Saskatchewan was idle last week. Both their offensive and defensive line played well for Saskatchewan in that win against BC. Kevin Glenn has thrown 14 TD passes in seven games. Edmonton lost for the first time this season falling on the road to Winnipeg last week. The Eskimos may be down following that defeat. They also have a huge look-ahead matchup for their next game when they meet Calgary with first place in the Western Division at stake. Given their lengthy injury list, it's not surprising the Eskimos finallly lost after opening with seven consecutive victories. They have close to 20 players hurt, including JC Sherritt, Adarius Bowman, John White, Brandon Zylstra, Almondo Sewell and Marcus Howard. The Roughriders have lost 15 straight road games versus division foes. Expect that to change with Chris Jones in charge. This is just Jones' second year as Roughriders coach. He's one of the top coaches in the league. Edmonton has failed to cover in 10 of its last 14 home games. The Eskimos also haven't covered during their past three games against the Roughriders with two of the past three going into overtime.
08-20-17	Saints v. Chargers -3	Top	13-7	Loss	-105	55 h 3 m	Show
The Saints and Chargers conducted a joint 2 1/2-hour practice session on Thursday. The Chargers outplayed the Saints by a wide margin during seven-on-seven drills. Philip Rivers and Los Angeles' offense was much sharper than Drew Brees and New Orleans' offense. The Saints wide receivers had trouble separating themselves from the Chargers' talented cornerbacks and Brees didn't have enough time to find them. That's one indication how this preseason game might turn out. But of equal, if not stronger importance, is the motivation angle. This is the Chargers' first season playing in Los Angeles. They laid an egg at home in their first preseason game falling to the Seahawks, 48-17, last Sunday. The Chargers also have a first-year head coach, Anthony Lynn. The Chargers won't play at home again until Sept. 17. Their next three games are all on the road. So this becomes much more than just a preseason game for the Chargers. Lynn wants to get the new fans on his side and build interest. Lynn wants to win this game very bad. Saints coach Sean Payton doesn't. Payton is one of those coaches like Mike Tomlin who doesn't care about preseason. That's reflected in the Saints losing and failing to cover in their last eight August preseason games, including losing to the Browns, 20-14, last week. Payton isn't going to take any chances with Brees, nor even with second-stringer Chase Daniel. This means likely big minutes for Garrett Grayson and Ryan Nassib. These are very bad quarterbacks. I like Rivers and his backup quarterbacks - Kellen Clemens and Cardale Jones - better.
08-19-17	Bears v. Cardinals -3	Top	24-23	Loss	-100	28 h 48 m	Show
Not only are the Cardinals the much better team, but they are home and have the advantage of having already played two preseason games while the Bears have only been in action once. Arizona is giving up an average of just 15 points in its two games. The Bears' defense isn't nearly as good. Cardinals quarterbacks Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton and Blaine Gabbert can take advantage of a vulnerable Chicago secondary. Gabbert played well in Arizona's first preseason game versus Dallas. Stanton looked the best he's ever looked with the Cardinals last week against the Raiders. By contrast, Mike Glennon looked horrible for the Bears. While Palmer and Stanton know their team's system, Glennon is rusty and has yet to get comfortable with the Bears. Backup rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky played great in the Bears' 24-17 home loss to the Broncos last week. Trubisky caught the Broncos by surprise since they had no film on him. The Cardinals have an idea about Trubisky now. So I'm not expecting Trubisky to perform nearly as well on the road against an aggressive Cardinals defense.
08-18-17	Dodgers v. Tigers +1.5	Top	8-5	Loss	-100	13 h 34 m	Show
It wouldn't shock me to see the Dodgers lose this game. The spot is ripe for the Tigers to pull an upset here. But I'm not crazy enough to stand in the Dodgers' way. They are a mind-boggling 50-9 in their last 59 games. That's why I'm taking the Tigers plus 1 1/2 runs on the run line. The Dodgers were idle Thursday. That could cool them off. This also is their first game away from the West Coast in 12 days. It's a three-hour time difference for them. The pitching matchup is lefty Rich Hill versus Jordan Zimmerman. Hill is vulnerable at big chalk because of his tendency to develop blisters and leave games early. The Tigers have a winning home mark and also a winning record against southpaws. Detroit was idle Thursday, too. The Tigers have won 18 of the past 26 times following an off day. The Tigers also have other impressive trends that fit this situation: They have won 69 percent of their last 131 interleague home games. They are 29-10 the last 39 times they've gone against a lefty starter at Comerica Park. Zimmerman is a pitcher I have always liked. Injuries and a switch to the American League have derailed him. But he's still effective when he's healthy, which he is now. He's turned in three quality outings during his last four starts. Zimmerman has experience handling the Dodgers, too, having made eight starts against them when he was with the Nationals. Zimmerman has a 2.11 ERA during his past four starts versus the Dodgers.
08-11-17	Steelers v. Giants -3.5	Top	20-12	Loss	-110	17 h 1 m	Show
Mike Tomlin is one of those coaches who doesn't care about preseason. That's evident in how he approaches these exhibition games - and in his record. The Steelers have lost and failed to cover in 13 of their 17 preseason games during the past four years. That includes going 0-4 SU and ATS in their preseason openers. They lost three preseason games by double-digits last season. I don't see anything being different here. Tomlin not only is holding out Ben Roethlisberger, but also second-string QB Landry Jones. Rookie Josh Dobbs is going to see the majority of snaps behind center for Pittsburgh. He'll be followed by Bart Houston. The Giants aren't going to play Eli Manning, but they have a much stronger quarterback rotation with Geno Smith and Josh Johnson. Not only are these two battling to win the backup job, but both are mobile quarterbacks. Having a mobile quarterback is huge in preseason where plays often break down. It's not just the Steelers' poor track record and quarterback disadvantage that makes the Giants an attractive favorite here. Pittsburgh has been hit hard by injuries during training camp with a dozen players hurting. The Steelers are extremely thin at cornerback. The Giants' short passing game can take advantage. The Giants have had a spirited training camp. They want to avoid a sluggish start they had last August. They will be the more motivated team.
08-04-17	Winnipeg v. Ottawa -2.5	Top	33-30	Loss	-110	29 h 16 m	Show
Winnipeg is 3-2. Ottawa is 1-4-1. But the Redblacks are favored here. What does that tell you? It tells me the oddsmaker believes the Redblacks are going to win. And I fully agree. The defending Grey Cup champion Redblacks have played a very tough schedule. They are better than their record having gone 5-1 ATS. Their average losing margin is 2.5 points a game. Their record could be just the opposite with a few breaks. This time Ottawa is in a good spot. The Redblacks had a much needed bye last week while Winnipeg is coming off a victory for the ages nipping Montreal, 41-40, last Thursday. The Blue Bombers scored two touchdowns in the final 48 seconds to pull out the victory scoring on the final play after recovering an on-side kick. I respect Winnipeg's offense, but the Blue Bombers have a porous defense. Giving up 40 points to the Alouttes is downright scary. The Blue Bombers are surrendering an average of 35.8 points per game during their last five games and must deal with the league's top quarterback-to-receiver tandem in Trevor Harris and Greg Ellingson. The Redblacks have won four of the last five meetings against the Blue Bombers, too.
07-28-17	BC +2 v. Edmonton	Top	26-37	Loss	-105	19 h 18 m	Show
The teams met opening week at BC and the Eskimos won, 30-27, as 4 1/2-point road 'dogs. Edmonton still hasn't lost. The Eskimos are 4-0. So why fade the lone unbeaten team in the CFL? The short answers are the Lions are the better team right now, Edmonton is due to lose with its four victories coming by a combined 12 points for an average win of three points and BC revenge motivation. The Eskimos have covered only three of their last 12 home games. BC has won four in a row. The Lions have won and covered all three of their road games beating Toronto by 13, Montreal by seven and Hamilton by 15. BC has improved since its Week 1 loss to Edmonton. QB Travis Lulay has been a revelation filling in for injured starter Jonathon Jennings. The Lions are averaging 43 points during their last two games with Lulay behind center. BC's secondary also has shown major improvement. Edmonton struggled versus winless Hamilton last week before pulling out a 31-28 win. The Eskimos have injuries on defense and will be minus suspended cornerback Garry Peters against BC.
07-26-17	Twins +1.5 v. Dodgers	Top	5-6	Win	100	8 h 5 m	Show
The Dodgers are just 5-4 in their last nine games if asked to lay 1 1/2 runs - and that's not with righthander Brock Stewart pitching. Stewart is making his first start of the year with Clayton Kershaw and Brandon McCarthy sidelined. Stewart made five starts last year and had a 6.38 ERA. He made four minor league starts this year and didn't complete four innings in any of them. This is likely to be Stewart and a bunch of middle relievers for the Dodgers. I feel fortified to step in against the Dodgers in this situation - especially backed by 1 1/2 runs. The Twins have the fifth-best road record in the league at 26-19. They are 21-8 in their last 29 road games versus a righty starter. MInnesota is going with two-time All-Star Ervin Santana, who is having one of his best seasons going 11-7 with a 3.26 ERA. Santana isn't pitching as well as he did during the first two months of the season, but he's a tough veteran who knows how to pitch and should be pumped for this matchup. The Twins have won seven of Santana's last nine starts and should have slugging third baseman Miguel Sano back in their lineup.
07-22-17	Rangers v. Rays -1.5	Top	4-3	Loss	-100	14 h 40 m	Show
The Rays lost a tough one at home to the Rangers Friday. I expect them to bounce back strong today with Chris Archer on the mound. So does the oddsmaker. I'm not going to lay that high vig, but I want the Rays going for me today so I'm playing them on the run line at a plus price. Archer has had eight quality starts in his last 11 outings. He pitches deep into games, too, going at least six innings during his past 11 starts. This is important because the Rays bullpen, while strong at the end, are vulnerable in middle relief. Tampa Bay has won seven of Archer's last 10 home starts. The Rangers' current linup is batting just .206 career-wise against Archer. The free-swinging Rangers are a bad fit against Archer, who ranks fourth in the majors in strikeouts. Look for the Rays to go to town against Andrew Cashner, who is 2-6 with a 4.33 ERA on the road this season. The Rangers have dropped seven of their past nine road games when Cashner has started. The Rays have hit the fourth-most homers in baseball and rank in the top five when going against righthanded pitchers.
07-21-17	Winnipeg +4 v. BC	Top	42-45	Win	100	19 h 57 m	Show
Winnipeg has covered in five of its last six visits to British Columbia. Yet this is a huge revenge spot for the Blue Bombers, who were nipped 32-31 during their last visit to BC. That came in the playoffs last season and ended the Blue Bombers' year. Both teams are playing well. But this is a good spot for Winnipeg, which has covered the past seven times it has met a foe with a winning mark. BC could be a bit fat and happy coming home after being on the road for three straight games - all victories. These games all were in the Eastern time zone being in Toronto, Montreal and Hamilton. British Columbia is in the Pacific time zone. The last time BC played at home was opening week. The Lions lost that game to Edmonton, 30-27, as 4 1/2-point favorites. The Lions will be minus their outstanding quarterback, Jonathon Jennings. He got hurt against Hamilton last week. So career backup-type Travis Lulay took over and proceeded to throw for 436 yards, most in CFL history for a quarterback coming off the bench. That certainly was impressive. It also came against a bad Hamilton defense. Winnipeg will be prepared for Lulay, who isn't nearly that good. The Blue Bombers do an excellent job of disguising their coverages and also are opportunistic on defense. An outright Blue Bombers victory would not be a surprise.
07-13-17	Toronto v. Winnipeg -3	Top	25-33	Win	100	79 h 37 m	Show
Winnipeg didn't get the job done against Calgary this past Friday losing 29-10 after leading at halftime. Then, again, the Blue Bombers never beat the Stampeders having lost 17 of the past 18 times to them, including nine straight at home. Calgary probably was the best team in the CFL last season. The Stampeders are likely the best team this year. So there's no shame in losing to them. The Blue Bombers' offense is much better than they showed against the Stampeders. I see them bouncing back to beat Toronto, a very bad road team. The Argonauts are off a rare road victory. They nipped Ottawa, the defending Grey Cup champion, 26-25, as four-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. Toronto had failed to cover in its previous six road contests. The Argos also are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 overall games. They are 1-4 ATS following a victory. Winnipeg is playing for just the third time. This is Toronto's fourth game and the Argos played this past Saturday. So they are traveling again having played only five days ago. Winnipeg is the fresher team. Blue Bombers QB Matt Nichols has played well since becoming the starter in Game 6 last year. Sparked by Nichols, the Blue Bombers went 11-7 and qualified for the playoffs for the first time since 2011. Nichols is off his worst game, though. So he should be highly motivated, especially at home, to play much better this weak against a much weaker opponent. Nichols has a lot going with 10 returning starters, including his entire offensive line. He has all-star running back Andrew Harris and veteran wideouts Darvin Adams, Clarence Denmark and Weston Dressler. The Blue Bombers are opportunistic defensively leading the league in takeaways last season with 59. Toronto ranks third-from-the-bottom in scoring per game this season.
07-08-17	Royals +1.5 v. Dodgers	Top	4-5	Win	100	13 h 14 m	Show
The Dodgers are the hottest team in baseball going 24-4 in their last 28 games. So why try to buck them here? Let me state the reasons: The Royals may be the second-hottest team at 18-7 in their last 25 games. They are 11-4 in their last 15 road games. The Royals have the hotter starting pitcher going. Kansas City needs this game knowing it faces Clayton Kershaw and a likely loss on Sunday. Oh, yes, I'm taking 1 1/2 runs with the visiting Royals. The Dodgers would be 1-4 in their last five games if laying 1 1/2 runs. Each of their last three victories have been by exactly one run. Ian Kennedy, a native of Southern California, is pitching for the Royals. He is 3-0 with a 2.22 ERA in his last four starts. Kennedy is overlooked, but he has been outstanding. Kennedy hasn't surrendered more than six hits during any of his 15 starts. He's holding opponents to a .201 batting average, fourth-best in baseball behind only Max Scherzer, Kershaw and Chris Sale. Those are the three best pitchers in the majors. Kansas City has won each of Kennedy's past five road starts, too. The Dodgers are pitching righy Brandon McCarthy. He's been on the DL with a knee strain since June 25. McCarthy looked terrible in his last start, which came at home against Colorado. McCarthy only went three innings giving up five runs (four earned) on four hits and two walks. He also uncorked three wild pitches in one inning. There's a huge question mark about McCarthy's effectiveness now. He shouldn't be this high of a favorite - and taking 1 1/2 runs is added insurance. McCarthy has a 4.05 career ERA against the Royals in 14 appearances, including six starts. Kansas City has won 12 of the last 17 times it has faced a right-handed starter.
06-07-17	Warriors -3 v. Cavs	Top	118-113	Win	100	42 h 1 m	Show
This is supposed to be the Cavaliers' game to win, right? The Zig/Zag theory points that way and so does the normal situational thinking of Cleveland down 2-0 in the series now returning home in a must-win spot. The oddsmakers think that way, too, having made a six-point adjustment in the line. There's just one problem with all this pro-Cavaliers thinking. It's entirely faulty because Cleveland simply isn't in Golden State's class. The Warriors have won by 22 and 19 points, respectively. Oh, I fully expect the Cavaliers to play as hard as ever at Quicken Loans Arena. They probably will produce their best game of the series - but it won't even be enough to even cover the spread. The Cavaliers couldn't come within 19 points of the Warriors in Game 2 and that was playing with exceptional intensity and coming up with 15 steals when Golden State had only five. The Warriors also will be highly motivated remembering the Cavaliers rallying from a 3-1 deficit last year to caputre the championship in seven games. They aren't going to give the Cavaliers any hope of that occurring again by letting up. The addition of Kevin Durant - who has more than lived up to his superstar status - has made the Warriors a team for the ages. They are in the discussion as greatest team ever with tremendous firepower and excellent defense. Cleveland can't defend the Warriors. It's that simple. The Cavaliers can't match Golden State's scorers and they lack elite defenders. LeBron James doesn't have nearly enough help to deal with Durant, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and Co. Tristan Thompson is boxed out. J.R. Smith is a bust. Kyle Korver and Deron Williams have been exposed. Tyronn Lue is a weak coach. So just forget this must-win talk surrounding the Cavaliers. The bottom line here is this is a cheap lay price.
05-20-17	Warriors v. Spurs +7.5	Top	120-108	Loss	-115	13 h 47 m	Show
Sure it's a monster plus if Kawhi Leonard plays today. Not only is he the best two-way player in basketball, but the mental lift he would provide would be enormous. I think Leonard will test his injured ankle and give it a try. The teams last played on Tuesday. So he's had three full days of recovery. Doctors found no structural damage to his ankle. If he plays, this spread is well worth getting involved. However, I'm not counting on Leonard playing. Yet I still believe the Spurs are worth backing in a home underdog role down 0-2 in this Western Conference Finals and in must-win mode. The Spurs can't help but be super fired up especially after taking a verbal beating from their Hall of Fame coach, Gregg Popovich, after being embarrassed 136-100 in Game 2. The Spurs are a prideful, veteran crew that showed it could win without Leonard when they buried the Rockets by 30 points on the road to close out their semifinal series. Golden State has lost a staggering 25 of 27 times at AT&T Center. This includes a 2-3 mark under Steve Kerr. So the Spurs' home-court advantage can not be underestimated. The Warriors also could be minus Andre Iguodala and starting center Zaza Pachulia. Their potential absence is being overlooked in all the hoopla surrounding Leonard's status. That would really hurt the Warriors' defense and leave their bench thin. Both are questionable due to injuries. Iguodala had the best plus-minust average in the league of all reserves who played in at least 50 games.
05-19-17	Cavs -5 v. Celtics	Top	130-86	Win	100	14 h 7 m	Show
Can the Celtics end the Cavaliers' 12-game playoff win streak? No. Boston clearly is outclassed here. The Cavaliers rolled past the Celtics, 117-104, in Wednesay's series opener. The scary thing about that 13-point victory was the Cavaliers were rusty having not played for nine days previous to that. The 13-point final also was misleading. The Cavaliers blew out Boston. The Celtics scored a lot of meaningless points during the second half when the outcome was not in doubt. LeBron James is playing great. The Celtics have no answer for him. But Kyrie Irving only scored 11 points on Wednesday. He's capable of much bigger things. The Celtics just can't match up to the Cavaliers especially in the frontcourt. Sure Brad Stevens is going to make some adjustments. But just what can Stevens do? He doesn't have the personnel to stay competitive with the Cavaliers. The Celtics have some fatigue. They just finished a grueling seven-game series against the Wizards. This marks their third game in five days. The Cavaliers are totally fresh and won't be rusty now.
05-18-17	White Sox +1.5 v. Mariners	Top	4-5	Win	100	12 h 20 m	Show
This has the makings of a being a wild game with a pitching matchup of Dylan Covey versus Sam Gaviglio. Covey is off his best start striking out a career-high nine batters in a 5-4 win against the Padres this past Saturday. Covey did that in just 4 1/3 innings as he was lifted after reaching 91 pitches. He won't have to deal with Robinson Cano, who is on the DL. This isn't a play on Covey, though. Rather it's a fade on Gaviglio and a Mariners bullpen that lacks a clear-cut closer. I'd rather take insurance with plus 1 1/2 runs - especially with the White Sox being the visitor and getting an extra at bat against Seattle's vulnerable bullpen - then take a chance on a straight-up White Sox victory. The White Sox just got swept three games by the Angels. They remain on the West Coast. If you give them 1 1/2 runs, the White Sox would 13-9 in their last 22 games. That's a winning percentage of 59 percent. Seattle would be 2-8 in its last 10 games if laying 1 1/2 runs. The Mariners have allowed five or more runs in six of their last nine games. Seattle averages 4.8 runs per game. So if the White Sox put up four-to-six runs that should do the trick especially with the added 1 1/2 run line cushion. This shouldn't be too much to ask of the White Sox. Gaviglio will be making his first big league start. He last pitched one week ago throwing two innings of relief giving up one run on two hits. Seattle has four-fifths of its starting pitching rotation on the DL. Gavilglio is a desperation option.
05-17-17	Cavs v. Celtics +5	Top	117-104	Loss	-110	11 h 18 m	Show
If Boston is ever going to steal a game in this Eastern Conference Finals this is its opportunity. The Celtics are home, playing well and have momentum. The Cavaliers last played on May 7. Being idle a full nine straight days is way too much especially at this juncture of the season. Not only does this prolonged time off potentially slow down the Cavaliers' mometum, but strongly suggests a rust factor. The key is are the Celtics good enough to take advantage? They weren't two years ago when the Cavaliers swept them. They are now. Boston has covered nine of its last 11 games, including its past five home contests. The Celtics have played three strong games in a row in blowing out the Wizards in Game 5, falling by one point on the road and then winning by double-digits in Game 7 at home on Monday. This is a short turnaround for the Celtics, but they were idle yesterday and didn't have to do any traveling having finished off the Wizards at home. The Celtics are not an old team either. They have enough legs, momentum and energy - fired-up by everyone completely ruling out their chances to win this series - to produce a strong effort here and take advantage of Cleveland's long layoff. During the regular season, the Celtics were 2 and 4-point favorites, respectively, in their two home games versus the Cavaliers. Now look at the spread. OK, this is the playoffs and the Cavaliers won't be holding back. But I'd still say this is line value. The Celtics also get a coaching edge with Brad Stevens against Tyronn Lue. LeBron James is going to bring it. He's the King. But Isaiah Thomas has raised his game to superstar level and he hasn't tailed off in the playoffs averaging 25.4 points during the postseason. Thomas is coming off a monster Game 7 clutch performance against the Wizards where he had 29 points, 12 assists and committed only two turnovers. Al Horford is having a strong playoffs, too, averaging 16.1 points, 7.5 rebounds, 5.8 assists and shooting 63.9 percent from the floor. Horford's confidence is sky high in his outside shooting as he's made 21 of 36 3-pointers for 58.3 percent. Horford being hot from 3-point range is the Celtics' secret weapon and a matchup problem for the Cavaliers, who wouldn't be able to pay such strict attention to Thomas.
05-14-17	Spurs +10.5 v. Warriors	Top	111-113	Win	100	32 h 13 m	Show
These two teams met at Oracle Arena to begin the season way back on Oct. 25. The Spurs were 8 1/2-point underdogs for that one. Final score: San Antonio 129, Golden State 100. OK, much has changed since then with one of them being Tony Parker is out with a ruptured quad. But not everything has changed to the detriment of San Antonio and for the betterment of Golden State. Mike Brown is now the acting coach for the Warriors with Steve Kerr ill. Brown is a much better assistant coach than head man. He can't compare to Gregg Popovich when it comes to head coaching. I've been following basketball for more than 50 years and Popovich is the best head coach I've ever seen. Certainly he's in the top-five all-time. The Spurs are riding the momentum of beating Houston, 114-75, as 8 1/2-point road 'dogs to close out that series. That happened on Thursday. So the Spurs won't be rusty, but also have had two full days of rest and preparation. Golden State, on the other hand, hasn't played since Monday. That's too much time off between games. The Warriors very well could lose their edge because of the extended time off. Golden State has failed to cover seven of the last nine times when having had three or more days off. If the Warriors come out rusty, off-kilter and cold they won't even win the game let alone cover this monster double-digit point spread. The Spurs outrebounded the Warriors, 55-35, in that opening night victory. Golden State gave up 21 offensive rebounds, the most it allowed all season. Now the Warriors have become more cohesive since then, but rebounding remains a crucial area. The Spurs have a height advantage and two dangerous low-post scorers in Pau Gasol and LaMarcus Aldridge, who got hot late in the Rockets series showing his criics that he is not overrated. "If we give up offensive rebounds and they take more shots than us, it's going to be hard for us to win," Kevin Durant was quoted as saying when asked about this series. Golden State has reached the NBA Finals each of the last two seasons. Neither time, though, did they meet the Spurs in the playoffs. So playing such a mentally tough and well-coached team in the playoffs is going to be a new experience. San Antonio is 13-6-1 the past 20 times when meeting a foe with a winning percentage above .600. I respect the heck out of the Warriors. They have super talent. But the Spurs are not exactly chopped liver. As great as Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant are, I would take Kawhi Leonard over anybody as far as being a two-way player. Leonard should be close to full strength, too, having been idle the past two days. Popovich has the necessary defenders to throw at Curry, Durant and Klay Thompson with emerging Jonathon Simmons, Danny Green and Patty Mills, who is replacing Parker at point guard. Parker is a savvy veteran, but Mills is underrated and in his prime. Parker was over-the-hill. The Spurs also have Dewayne Dedmond, a below-the-radar player who has the necessary athleticism to bother Golden State. The Spurs can milk their size. The Warriors can't do that. They need to hit their outside shots. San Antonio ranked No. 2 in fewest points allowed per game. The Spurs also rated fourth in defensive field goal percentage and fifth in 3-point defense. Given all these factors plus the situation, it's my strong belief that this point spread is way out of whack.
05-07-17	Celtics v. Wizards -4.5	Top	102-121	Win	100	32 h 3 m	Show
After outplaying the Celtics for stretches during the first two games of the series, the Wizards broke through this past Thursday in Game 3 winning by 27 points. I like the Wizards to win again at Verizon Center, where they covered 57 percent of the time during the regular season and are 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS during the playoffs. The Wizards blew out the Celtics in Game 3 despite their dynamic backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal missing 20 of 31 shots from the floor, including nine of 11 3-point attempts. Wall has logged a ton of minutes so having an extra day of rest with two full days in between games should help him. The Wizards' frontcourt outplayed the Celtics and now Washington has big man Ian Mahimmi back in the rotation. It's telling that the Wizards rolled past the Celtics at home in Game 3 despite poor shooting from their backcourt, which is the strength of their team.
05-05-17	Cavs -2.5 v. Raptors	Top	115-94	Win	100	16 h 10 m	Show
The Raptors found themselves down 2-0 in their Eastern Conference Finals playoff series against the Cavaliers last year after losing the first two games in Cleveland. Toronto returned home and beat Cleveland by 15 points holding the Cavaliers to 84 points. Will history repeat itself? No. There are too many differences from last season starting with how great the Cavaliers are playing. Cleveland is averaging 120.5 points in the series winning by 11 and 22 points, respectively. LeBron James is playing at an "A" level, which is the highest form of basketball. His teammates also are playing at peak efficiency. The Cavaliers aren't going to forget what happened last season when they went to Toronto up 2-0 in the series. They will be mentally focused to go with their outstanding court performances. Not only do the Raptors face a supreme challenge of slowing down the Cavaliers - something they have yet to do - but they likely will be without All-Star point guard Kyle Lowery. He didn't practice Thursday after suffering a badly sprained ankle during the third quarter of Wednesday's Game 2. Even if Lowery can give it a go, his effectiveness is going to be extremely limited. He only kept playing on the ankle in Game 2 because it didn't stiffen up. "Kyle is our driving force, our point guard, our leader," DeMar DeRozan was quoted as saying about Lowery. "So for us not to have him anything close to 100 percent, it would be difficult on us." DeRozan is the Raptors' other key player and he's cold scoring only five points in Game 2. DeRozan is frustrated, but the Cavaliers can just keep clamping down on him giving him no space while none of Toronto's guards and wings step up. DeMarre Carroll and Patrick Patterson are a combined 3-for-17 shooting from the floor. Yes, the Raptors will be super motivated. But it's asking too much of them to turn around their offense - just like a light switch - especially with Lowry hurt, while suddenly slowing down the unstoppable James and putting an end to the Cavaliers' hot shooting from 3-point range. All of that would simply defy logic - and basketball.
05-04-17	Celtics v. Wizards -5	Top	89-116	Win	100	21 h 30 m	Show
Call it playing the Zig/Zag theory if you care to. But I want the Wizards going for me at home down 0-2 in their series against Boston. Not only only has the home team covered each of the last six times these two teams have met, but the Wizards have played the Celtics tough controlling each of the first two games for various stretches. The Wizards should have easily covered in Game 2, but lost in overtime by 10 points. Isaiah Thomas had a came for the ages pouring in 29 of his 53 points during the fourth quarter and overtime in memory of his 23-year-old sister, who died on the eve of the playoffs. This time it's the Wizards' turn to play with great emotion. They have been outstanding at Verizon Center this season covering 57 percent of their home games. As great as Thomas has been, I would take John Wall over him as the best player on the court. The key for the Wizards is getting better front court production. That should happen here with Marcin Gortat and Markieff Morris being able to avoid foul trouble at home. Morris proved he had overcome a sprained ankle suffered in Game 1 by playing a strong Game 2. However, he fouled out in just 27 minutes.
05-01-17	Rockets v. Spurs -5.5	Top	126-99	Loss	-115	15 h 5 m	Show
It's not a coincidence the Spurs have a strong record of success in the opening game of a playoff round. Gregg Popovich is the best coach in the NBA and he's ready to go, well prepared. San Antonio opened with a 29-point home win against Memphis this season in their first series game. Last year, the Spurs beat both the Grizzlies and Thunder by 32 points apiece in their respective series openers, both in San Antonion. Then, two years ago, the Spurs defeated the Clippers by 27 points when they played their first series home game. Now the Spurs host the Rockets, who have failed to cover in 11 of their last 14 games. The Rockets were able to take advantage of the Thunder in their first-round playoff series despite shooting just 28.4 percent from 3-point range. The Rockets live and die more than any team with 3-point shots leading the league in attempts at 40.3 per game. San Antonio not only ranks fifth in 3-point defensive field goal percentage but led the league in 3-point accuracy making 39.1 percent from beyond the arc. The Spurs shot 41 percent from 3-point range against the Grizzlies in their first-round series. The Grizzlies were a much stronger defensive team than the Thunder. Then there is the Kawhi Leonard factor. The Rockets ranked 26th defensively. The Spurs, by contrast ranked No. 2 defensively, giving up 11 fewer points than Houston per game. The Rockets have no one who remotely can guard Leonard, who averaged 31.2 points in the series against the Grizzlies while shooting 54.8 percent from the floor and making 59 of 61 free throws. There isn't a better two-way player in basketball. The Rockets' main man, James Harden, has been bothered by an ankle injury. He shot just 13-of-41 for 31.7 percent from the field in Houston's last two games.
04-30-17	Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics	Top	111-123	Loss	-105	9 h 23 m	Show
Let's rewind to each team's opening playoff series. The Wizards showed a lot of heart and ability to make necessary adjustments in beating the Hawks. John Wall played great and a number of role players came through. The Wizards enter this Game 1 with a lot of well-earned confidence. The Celtics lost the first two games of their series against the Bulls with both defeats coming at home. Then Chicago lost point guard Rajon Rondo. The Bulls were forced to fill his spot with a pair of stiffs, Isaiah Canaan and Jerian Grant. The result was four straight losses. Now Boston, which could have been eliminated if Rondo didn't get injured, has to step up and deal with Wall at point guard instead of Canaan. Wall averaged 29.5 points and 10.3 assists against the Hawks. The All-Star is playing his finest ball making a strong statement that he is a superstar. The Celtics' big scorer is Isaiah Thomas, who doesn't play defense nearly as well as Wall. Thomas averaged nearly 29 points during the regular season, but was held six points below his average against the Bulls. Thomas' shooting was off, especially from 3-point range where he missed 23 of 26 during the last three games. It's understandable that his mental focus is affected by the recent death of his sister. The Wizards should be more effective in the frontcourt, too, where they don't have to deal anymore with Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard. I find Al Horford overrated and Kelly Olynyk, Tyler Zeller and Amir Johnson are lunch-bucket role players. Note, too, that Boston has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 home games.
04-29-17	Phillies +1.5 v. Dodgers	Top	5-6	Win	100	16 h 20 m	Show
The Phillies are better than perceived winners of six of their last seven. If given 1 1/2 runs, they would be 15-3 in their last 18 games. They have a higher winning percentage than the Dodgers. The pitching matchup pits Zach Eflin against Brandon McCarthy. Eflin is way below the radar screen. He's retired 33 of the last 39 batters he's faced and holds a 2.25 ERA. Philadelphia is 7-3 in his last last 10 starts. The Dodgers have never faced him giving Eflin a surprise element. McCarthy also has a 2.25 ERA, but has gotten far more publicity pitching for the Dodgers and going 3-0. McCarthy isn't nearly this good a pitcher. He's due for regression and has never beaten the Phillies. Philadelphia has scored four or more runs in 15 of its last 19 games. The Dodgers rank 21st in runs scored at 4.2 per game.
04-28-17	Clippers +6.5 v. Jazz	Top	98-93	Win	100	18 h 17 m	Show
I'm not ready to write off the Clippers. Not with them getting this many points in a must-win spot down 3-2 in the series. The Clippers' three losses in the series have been by a combined 13 points, an average of 4.3 points per defeat. The Clippers led by seven points with seven minutes left before losing Game 4 and they erased an 11-point Utah fourth-quarter lead in Game 5 before falling. The Clippers outscored the Jazz during the fourth quarter of Game 5. Now I like the Jazz. But I don't see their entitlement to lay this many points. What have they accomplished to earn this right? The last time Utah won a playoff series was seven years ago. They don't have the experience, or proven background, to close out a series favored by this many points. Just two years ago, the Clippers beat the Spurs on the road, 102-96, in a first-round playoff series after losing Game 5 at home. Yes, the Clippers accomplished that with Blake Griffin, who won't play today because of a toe injury. Griffin isn't the Clippers' best player, though. Chris Paul is and he gives the Clippers not only veteran leadership but the best player on the court. Big man DeAndre Jordan is the Clippers' second most valuable player. He can neutralize Rudy Gobbert. That matchup is a standoff. But Paul makes the Clippers very dangerous in this spot. The Clippers also have back guard Austin Rivers. He played 18 minutes in Game 5 after being out nearly a month with a hamstring injury. The Jazz have been fortunate that Joe Johnson has stepped up for them. He's Utah's second-leading scorer in the series averaging 18.2 points shooting 53.4 percent from the floor. During the regular season, Johnson averaged 9.2 points and shot 43.6 percent from the field. So he's due to cool off.
04-27-17	Spurs v. Grizzlies +4.5	Top	103-96	Loss	-115	15 h 43 m	Show
There are no secrets this late in the second-round of the playoffs. Each team has won on its home-court. I see that pattern continuing here. The Grizzlies have beaten and covered the last four times they've hosted the Spurs, including Games 3 and 4 of this series. Kawhi Leonard is a monster. But Marc Gasol and Mike Conley give the Grizzlies the second and third-best players on the court. Conley provides the Grizzlies a backcourt edge as Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli are past their prime. Memphis' role players step up better at home, too. The Spurs were impressive in Game 5. But that was in San Antonio and the Spurs shot 52.5 percent from the floor, hit 14 of their 28 3-pointers and shot nearly 82 percent from the foul line. I don't see that happening in Memphis. The Grizzlies ranked third in fewest points allowed per game and also were third in defensive field goal percentage during the regular season.
04-26-17	Bulls +8 v. Celtics	Top	97-108	Loss	-110	16 h 23 m	Show
I'm not expecting Rajon Rondo to play in this Game 5. But I still like the Bulls to cover the number. Emotions and tensions have been raised in this series now that it's down to a two-out-of-three. Boston lacks the playoff experience and postseason record to close out teams let alone win by decent-sized margins such as this point spead. The Celtics are 2-5 SU and ATS in the playoffs under Brad Stevens. Their two victories occurred in overtime and by eight points, both against Atlanta. The Bulls, led by Jimmy Butler and Dwayne Wade, are 2-0 at TD Garden in the series. Boston has covered just one of its last nine home games. The Bulls, by contrast, have played well on the road covering eight of their last 10 away contests, including going 7-0 ATS the last seven times facing foes with a winning home mark. Chicago also is 7-1 ATS in its next game following a loss where the Celtics are 8-18 ATS after winning in their previous game. Stevens adjusted well following the Bulls winning the first two games of the series. His major change was going with a smaller lineup inserting Gerald Green into the starting five. The Celtics held the Bulls to a combined 40.1 percent shooting from the floor in evening the series by winning the last two games in Chicago. The Bulls now have had two games to get used to Boston's new lineup and not having Rondo to run their offense. The Bulls aren't a great shooting team, but they still shot 44.4 percent from the floor during the season.
04-25-17	Thunder +7.5 v. Rockets	Top	99-105	Win	100	21 h 32 m	Show
Have to believe the Thunder can keep this game close trying to stave off elimination after having the Rockets edge them out in Oklahoma City this past Sunday. Houston has failed to cover in 10 of its last 13 games. Only once during their last 13 games have the Rockets won by more than seven points. Russell Westbrook is playing at the top of his game, while James Harden is dealing with an ankle injury. Harden was held to 16 points on 5-of-16 shooting from the floor on Sunday. He missed all seven of his 3-point shots. The Rockets, though, were bailed out by 34-year-old Nene, who scored 28 points on 12-of-12 shooting from the field. The Thunder's role players are due to play much better especially against such a vulnerable defense as the Rockets. Victor Oladipo, Steven Adams, Enes Kanter and Andre Roberson are all better than they've show so far in the series.
04-24-17	Wizards +2.5 v. Hawks	Top	101-111	Loss	-107	11 h 43 m	Show
The Wizards are the better team and John Wall is the best player on the floor. The major question, though, is Washington mature enough to win on Atlanta's home court? I believe they are. The Wizards have a huge backcourt edge with Wall, who is averaging 31 points and 10 assists in the series, and Bradley Beal. They have helped force the Hawks to commit 51 turnovers so far in the series. The Hawks came back to soundly beat Washington, 116-98, at home in Game 3. But now the Wizards will be much better prepared. I see the Wizards having the poise to match the Hawks' intensity, which was at its peak in Game 3.
04-23-17	Rockets +1.5 v. Thunder	Top	113-109	Win	100	12 h 59 m	Show
After losing the first two games in Houston, Oklahoma City needed to step up at home in Game 3. The Thunder did that - but barely winning 115-113 on Friday. Look for the superior team - Houston - to play better in this Game 4 and get the victory. The Rockets should play with more of a sense of urgency especially early after letting the Thunder build too big of a lead. Houston also is due to shoot better from 3-point range after hitting only 10 of 35 in Game 3 for 28.5 percent. The Rockets shot 35.7 percent from beyond the arc during the regular season. Russell Westbrook is a Triple Double machine. He's going to get his numbers. But James Harden is just as good and the Rockets have the better scoring role players with Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson and Lou Williams. I don't envision Taj Gibson having another monster performance like he did for Oklahoma City on Friday. The Rockets have dominated the Thunder from a pointspread perspective going 11-2 ATS during the past 13 meetings, including 6-0 ATS during the past six at Oklahoma City.
04-22-17	Spurs -3.5 v. Grizzlies	Top	108-110	Loss	-110	15 h 50 m	Show
If Golden State isn't the best team in the NBA than San Antonio is. The Spurs showed their dominance during the first two games of the series winning at home by 29 and 14 points, respectively. On Thursday, the teams played Game 3. Everything set up for the Grizzlies in that matchup. The Grizzlies were playing at home for the first time, David Fizdale had set up the officials by bitterly complaining after Game 2 and the Grizzlies' Big Three of Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Zach Randolph all stepped up. The Grizzlies also got "A" type performances from their young role players. Game 3 was Memphis' time to win and the Grizzlies did just that, 105-94. Gregg Popovich, who I have long regarded as the best coach in basketball, may have hoisted the white flag in that game in order to set up a victory in this Game 4. A disgusted Popovich pulled all five of his starters less than a minute into the second half with his team trailing by nine points. All of this leads me to strongly believe the prideful and superior Spurs are going to step up here. If they do, the Spurs will win handily even if the Grizzlies can somehow conjure up a second straight "A" game performance, which I don't see happening. Memphis is 1-5 ATS following a victory, didn't play well down the stretch losing four of their last five regular-season games and has lost 10 of their last 11 playoff games to the Spurs.
04-19-17	Thunder +8 v. Rockets	Top	111-115	Win	100	12 h 2 m	Show
It's rare to see the Thunder getting this many points. But that's what happens after the Rockets destroyed the Thunder, 118-87, in Sunday's Game 1. I don't see a repeat. James Harden is a strong MVP candidate and Houston has the No. 2 ranked offense. But their defense isn't nearly as good as it looked in Game 1. Not only did Russell Westbrook have a rare off-game, missing 17 of 23 shots from the floor while committing nine turnovers, but shooting guard Victor Oladipo made only one of 12 shots from the floor. Oklahoma City's front line also played poorly losing the rebound battle by 15 boards. I see the prideful Westbrook and Oklahoma City bouncing back. The Thunder's underrated frontcourt shouldn't get outrebounded by the Rockets and Westbrook is due some calls in his personal battle with Harden, who schooled him in the opener of the series. Oklahoma City improved its road play down the stretch winning seven of its last nine regular season away contests while going 6-3 ATS. The Thunder also have covered five of the last six times when playing on two days rest. Until shellacking the Thunder, the Rockets had failed to cover in their last nine games.
04-15-17	Bucks v. Raptors -7	Top	97-83	Loss	-103	28 h 36 m	Show
Forget Cleveland and Boston. The best team in the Eastern Conference right now very well could be Toronto. The Bucks have been playing well, but their playoff inexperience can really hurt them in this opening game especially playing in Toronto. The Raptors have dominated the Bucks beating them seven of the last eight times with the lone loss coming when the Raptors were missing Kyle Lowery. The Raptors won 10 playoff games last season. They are better this season with Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker added to the mix upgrading their defense. Lowery and DeRozan also enter the playoffs far less fatigued than last season due to missing time with injuries. Lowery missed 21 games during the second half of the season because of a wrist injury. Toronto finished the post All-Star break ranked in the top-five in defense and rebounding. No other team can make that distinction. By contrast, Milwaukee ranked 19th defensively and 24th in rebounding. The last time the Bucks won a playoff series was 2000-2001. The Raptors are 25-4 the past 29 times holding an opponent under 100 points. The Bucks finished the regular-season averaging just 88.2 points during their past five games.
04-14-17	Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Dodgers	Top	1-7	Loss	-100	15 h 34 m	Show
The Diamondbacks and Zach Greinke are playing much better than they did last season. Arizona is 7-3 with a new found sense of confidence and optimism. Greinke is past his shoulder issues that plagued him last season. He's 1-0 with a 2.31 ERA in his two starts this season. Compare this to Clayton Kershaw, who is 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA after giving up four runs on eight hits in six innings against the Rockies during his last start. That outing was at Coors Field. Kershaw figures to be much better at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Against Arizona, though, Kershaw has been good but not dominant sporting a lifetime mark of 12-8 with a 2.75 ERA. The total is less than seven here so few runs are expected. Asking the Dodgers to win by more than a run is asking a lot especially when LA gets one fewer at bat being the home team. The Dodgers just flew in from Chicago where they lost, 4-0, to the Cubs on Thursday. This is their first home game in more than a week. The loss to the Cubs completed a six-game road trip. Discount a 10-run performance against the Rockies at Coors and the Dodgers have scored seven runs in their last five games. While the Dodgers were changing two time zones, the Diamondbacks have been resting. They were idle Thursday. The Diamondbacks rank No. 2 in runs scored and batting average. Just two years ago, Greinke finished second in the National League Cy Young voting while pitching for the Dodgers. Greinke certainly won't lack motivation going against his former team and Kershaw. Arizona has won 10 of Greinke's last 13 road starts. The Diamondbacks are the better offensive team, have their own stud pitcher going and are in a good spot taking on an opponent that just concluded a long road trip. Kershaw is again way overpriced. Taking 1 1/2 runs with the visiting Diamondbacks is good insurance.
04-13-17	Maple Leafs v. Capitals -1.5	Top	2-3	Loss	-100	16 h 52 m	Show
Expectations are high again for the Capitals entering the Stanley Cup, something they have failed to capture during this past decade despite winning seven division titles. I see the Capitals, 11-2-1 in their last 14 games, opening their first-round series with a victory against the Maple Leafs. So does the oddsmaker, who has made Washington better than a 2-to-1 favorite. I won't lay those odds instead taking a plus price on the puck line in the belief this game will be a blowout. Even it is tight, the Maple Leafs will be pulling their goalie earlier than usual if down by a goal late in the game thus increasing the chances of a multple goal winning game for Washington. This is just the third time the Maple Leafs have made the postseason since 2003-04. Toronto has some exciting young talent, but lacks the Captials' defense and playoff experience. Opening on the road makes it even more difficult for the Maple Leafs. Washington has won 76 percent of its past 78 home games, including going 32-7-2 this season. The Capitals have dominated the Maple Leafs winning seven of the last eight meetings. The Capitals had a down goal-scoring year from Alex Ovechkin - at least by his high standards - but still scored the third-most goals in the league. The Maple Leafs were fifth in goals scored, but are not used to the increased tight-checking that goes on in the playoffs. The Capitals also possess a huge edge in the nets with Braden Holtby, who had a career-best 2.07 GAA while leading the NHL with nine shutouts.
04-12-17	Spurs +4 v. Jazz	Top	97-101	Push	0	9 h 16 m	Show
Gregg Popovich said he won't be resting players against Utah tonight. I take Popovich at his word especially since the Spurs are 1-3 in their last four games. Popovich doesn't want his team entering the playoffs flat plus the postseason won't start for a few more days so there's a rust factor he wants to avoid. So expect a strong effort from the Spurs. It's a bonus they are getting this many points. Utah knows it's not going to overtake the Clippers to earn the fourth-seed in the West and get first-round home-court advantage. Not when the Clippers are 15 1/2-point home favorites against the Kings tonight. Either way, the Jazz will be meeting the Clippers in the first-round of the playoffs. The Jazz have bigger priorities. They need to get the rust of point guard George Hill, who played on Monday against the Warriors after missing six games with a strained right groin. The Jazz have to get three starters - Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors and Rodney Hood - all healthy along with backup point guard Raul Neto. All of them missed Utah's last game. It's not a given they all will play against the Spurs. Hayward would be especially missed being the Jazz's top offensive player. The Jazz have a terrible track record, too, versus Western Conference foes going 8-22-1 ATS the past 31 times facing them.
04-10-17	Nets +11 v. Celtics	Top	105-114	Win	100	8 h 4 m	Show
Boston isn't playing well enough to cover this inflated number. The Celtics have surrendered 114 or more points in four of their last five games. The Celtics have failed to cover during their last five home games and are 2-6 ATS the past eight times meeting below .500 teams. On tap for Boston is a revenge game against the Bucks at home on Wednesday. Brooklyn has been under the radar going 11-11 in its last 22 games, including going 4-1 in its last five games. The Nets have been getting contributions from unsung players such as Caris LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie and Rondae-Hollis Jefferson. Brooklyn is more respectable with Jeremy Lin healthy. Brook Lopez is having a nice season, too. The Nets have covered in seven of their last nine away contests. Only once in their last 14 games have they lost by double digits. They rank 12th in points per game so they have the offense to take advantage of Boston's recent defensive woes.
04-09-17	Wolves -4.5 v. Lakers	Top	109-110	Loss	-110	15 h 49 m	Show
There are many reasons why I like the Timberwolves to cover this number. Some are obvious with the main one being Minnesota is the superior team. Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins easily give the Timberwolves the two best players on the court. Ricky Rubio is having his finest career stretch averaging 19 points and 10 assists during his last 10 games. This, though, is build into the line. That's why Minnesota is a road favorite. To beat the line and cover the spread, though, we have to go beyond the obvious and look past the numbers. The Lakers have won three in a row beating the Kings, Spurs and Grizzlies. They haven't won four in a row all season. Prior to their win streak, the Lakers had lost 18 of 20. So what is going on? Have the Lakers really improved? No. They rank with the Nets, Suns and Kings as among the four worst teams in the NBA. During their win streak, the Lakers defeated the Kings, who are in tank mode, too. The Lakers beat the Spurs because Gregg Popovich didn't want his Spurs to win that game. That may have been the most bizarre game of the season, but I don't question Popovich, the best coach in the game. The Lakers did play hard in upsetting the Grizzlies at Staples Center, but Memphis was missing four rotation players, including their best big man, Marc Gasol. It's in the Lakers' best interest to LOSE. This is something management is well aware of and why the Lakers have been giving minutes to inexperienced bench players such as Tyler Ennis, Corey Brewer, Tarick Black and Thomas Robinson. Even long-ago washed-up, mental patient Metta World Peace has averaged 13 minutes of playing time during the last two games. The Lakers now only have the third-worst record in the NBA passing the Suns. If the Lakers can sneak behind the Suns again to finish with the second-worst record instead of the third their chances of winning the lottery go from 47 percent to 56 percent. Improving their lottery odds is far more important to Lakers management than seeing their team win a meaningless April game against the Timberwolves. So you have to question LA's motivation here. That won't be the case with the Timberwolves and their fiery coach Tom Thibodeau. Minnesota entered its current four-game road trip winning three of four. But the Timberwolves are 0-3 on their road trip losing to the Warriors, Trail Blazers and Jazz. Those teams are all extremely hard to beat at home. Thibodeau will be coaching hard - like he always does - and doesn't want to end this road swing going 0-4. The Timberwolves are stepping way down in class after their first three away contests. Thibodeau also will be reminding his team about their last visit to Staples Center against the Lakers. That was on March 24. The Timberwolves blew an eight-point lead with around 2 1/2 minutes left and lost in overtime.
04-07-17	Heat +6 v. Raptors	Top	94-96	Win	100	8 h 29 m	Show
Only twice in their last 16 games have the Heat lost by more than four points. I don't see Miami getting blown out here in a revenge spot from a 101-84 home loss to the Raptors and with the team back in sync following a blowout road victory against Charlotte in their last game. The Heat need every victory in their playoff quest. The Heat have covered 13 of their last 16 versus opponents with a winning record. They are 8-2 ATS on the road the past 10 times versus an above .500 home team. Erik Spoelstra has done a great job with Miami. I wouldn't argue if he were named Coach of the Year. This is Toronot's second game with Kyle Lowry back a point guard. So there's still an adjustment period.
04-06-17	Nets v. Magic -2.5	Top	107-115	Win	100	18 h 15 m	Show
Orlando doesn't have much, if anything to play for this season, except for this game. The teams just met this past Saturday in Brooklyn and the Nets defeated the Magic, 121-111. Brooklyn has been playing its finest ball of the season. I acknowledge that. But the Nets still are one of the three worst teams in the NBA if not the worse. I like Orlando's talent much better than Brooklyn's especially with Aaron Gordon beginning to play better. Orlando is 2-2 in its last four home games with one of those lossess occurring to the Thunder in overtime. Only once in their last six visits have the Nets covered in Orlando. The Magic had also won five straight versus the Nets until losing on Saturday. The Magic won't lack motivation in this revenge spot. The Nets are due for a flat spot having won three in a row. They host the Bulls on Saturday in their final home game. So the spot is ripe for the Magic. They have home-court and the better talent. Add it up and it should result in a cover for the Magic.
04-05-17	Raptors +1 v. Pistons	Top	105-102	Win	100	8 h 45 m	Show
Toronto has won eight of its last 10. The Raptors are the No. 3 playoff seed in the East. They are clearly superior to the Pistons even without injured Kyle Lowery. Yet the Pistons currently are favored. I understand the reasoning. Detroit is home, extremely well-rested having last played on Friday, in must-win mode and draw the Raptors without rest. Toronto was blown out by 19 points on the road against the Pacers last night. However ... none of those factors hold up under scrutiny. Detroit realistically has no playoff shot being 2 1/2 games out. The Pistons need to sweep the rest of their games and hope other playoff contenders lose three more games. The Pistons aren't playing well enough for that to happen and their morale is bad. Detroit is 2-9 in its last 11 games and 3-8 ATS. The Pistons' only victories during this span were against the Nets and Suns - two of the three worst teams in the league. Point guard Reggie Jackson is banged-up and so in the doghouse that he's sitting out for journeyman Ish Smith. Playing five days ago also is too long of a layoff at such a late juncture of the season for the Pistons. Look for them to be rusty. The Raptors have much better chemistry. They upgraded their defense at the trade deadline and only DeMar DeRozan logged big minutes last night.
04-04-17	Bucks v. Thunder -4.5	Top	79-110	Win	100	12 h 8 m	Show
Oklahoma City is two levels higher than Milwaukee when playing at home, which is the case here. The Thunder have been dominant at Cheaspeake Energy Arena going 20-8-1 ATS the past 29 times. They've been especially strong versus weaker road teams going 13-4 ATS the past 17 times versus sub .500 road clubs. Oklahoma City has covered eight of the past 10 times as home chalk, but is in stop-the-pain mode with a two-game losing streak. This includes a home loss to the Hornets two days ago in its last game. The Thunder is going for a high seed in the playoffs. Memphis, which would be the seventh-seed if the playoffs began now, is just 1 1/2 games behind the Thunder. Oklahoma City definitely wants to avoid having to tangle with the Warriors or Spurs early in the playoffs. The Bucks could be short-handed in the backcourt if good-looking rookie guard Malcom Brogdon has to miss a third consecutive game because of back pain.
04-02-17	Bulls v. Pelicans -6.5	Top	117-110	Loss	-110	17 h 59 m	Show
It has taken a while, but the Pelicans have gotten in sync with DeMarcus Cousins on board to join Anthony Davis. New Orleans has won eight of its last 11 games going 7-4 ATS. They have won their past six home contests, which is a season high, covering five of those games while beating the spread by an average of 12.6 points during this span. Cousins is playing his finest ball since joining New Orleans averaging 34 points and 12.8 rebounds in his last four games. The Pelicans are 5-1 the past six games when having Cousins in the lineup. The Bulls had to come from behind to hold off the Hawks on Saturday winning by just two points Saturday at home, 106-104. This victory followed a great win by the Bulls against the Cavaliers. Chicago has three more road games following this matchup. Those games look much easier on paper as the Bulls face the Knicks, 76ers and Nets. This is the matchup where the Bulls face the most trouble.
04-01-17	Oregon v. North Carolina -4.5	Top	76-77	Loss	-115	45 h 2 m	Show
Oregon has been riding a lot of momentum. But North Carolina has a height and talent edge. The week layoff takes away Oregon's momentum, too. So I'm going with the Tar Heels. North Carolina has far more Big Dance experience than Oregon. The Tar Heels nearly won the NCAA Tournament last season losing on late basket in the title game. Oregon's last Final Four NCAA Tourney experience came in 1939. This is the matchup where the Ducks are really going to miss Chris Boucher, out for the season after sustaining a knee injury during a semifinal game in the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. Boucher's absence leaves Jordan Bell as the lone quality big man the Ducks have. Bell has had an outstanding NCAA Tournament, but he's not going to be able to hold off the Tar Heels on the boards. North Carolina has the best rebound differential of any team since Michigan State in 2001 at plus 13. No major conference team has come close since then of having that big of a difference on the boards. The Ducks have advanced this far in the tournament by outrebounding each of their opponents. That's not going to happen here.
04-01-17	Hawks +4.5 v. Bulls	Top	104-106	Win	100	6 h 24 m	Show
Things are back looking up for Atlanta. The Hawks took a while adjusting to being without leading scorer and best player, Paul Millsap. The Hawks lost seven in a row during a two-week period from March 13-26. Some of that, though, was because of playing strong competition. The Hawks went up against the Spurs, Grizzlies, Trail Blazers, Wizards and hot Bucks during this span. The Hawks have now won two in a row. Those victories have come against the Suns and 76ers on the road. Yes, the Bulls are a step above those lottery clubs. But Chicago is three games below .500. They aren't very good either and are without Dwayne Wade. Millsap still remains out. But I like this spot for Atlanta. The Hawks have been idle since Wednesday. Sparkplug guard Kent Bazemore is back for Atlanta. He was instrumental in the Hawks' 99-92 road win against the 76ers, who happen to own the best ATS mark in the NBA. I'm expecting a fresh, energectic, well-prepared Hawks squad. The Bulls are coming off a huge Friday home win against the Cavaliers. They still could be on Cloud Nine. Chicago is 2-7 ATS the past nine times playing on one day's rest. The Bulls also have failed to cover in six of their last seven meetings versus the Hawks.
03-31-17	Pistons +10 v. Bucks	Top	105-108	Win	100	12 h 20 m	Show
The Pistons have turned very ugly losing eight of their last 10 games. Reggie Jackson has been ineffective, Andre Drummond is the worst free throw shooter in NBA history for a prominent player and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was arrested on Wednesday for suspicion of drunk driving. So why endorse these losers? Call me a sucker, but I believe the Pistons hang with the Bucks here. Milwaukee has won 17 of its last 23 games. Kris Middleton has made a difference offensively and defensively, too. He's been a big key why the Bucks have played so well since losing Jabari Parker. Yet the Bucks have failed to cover three of the last four times they've been favored. They are 0-3 the last times when laying more than six points. This is just the third time they are favored by more than nine points with the other two times coming against the 76ers and Nets. Speaking of the Nets, the Pistons grabbed a much needed victory by edging them, 90-89, last night stopping their five-game losing streak. The Pistons still retain playoff hopes. This is a must-win spot for them. They are due for a much better performance. I see them playing very hard here. Drummond is going to be brutal at the free throw line, but he's the best rebounder on the court. Underrated Ish Smith is an improvement on Jackson at point guard and Caldwell-Pope won't be suspended. Any punishment to him would occur at the start of next season.
03-30-17	Clippers v. Suns +10.5	Top	124-118	Win	100	11 h 12 m	Show
Writeup available shortly.
03-29-17	Warriors +4.5 v. Spurs	Top	110-98	Win	100	18 h 53 m	Show
No fancy handicap here. I'll take this many points with the Warriors in a double revenge spot and playing more focused with better defense than they were before. Golden State was a rare underdog last night and beat the Rockets. They are 7-2 ATS now versus home foes with a winning percentage above .600. The Spurs are 3-9 ATS following a victory. I respect Gregg Popovich more than any other coach, but the Warriors are at least equal to the Spurs even without Kevin Durant.
03-28-17	TCU -2.5 v. UCF	Top	68-53	Win	100	21 h 58 m	Show
TCU played a more difficult schedule that Central Florida, carries a higher RPI ranking, is playing its best ball and I trust Jamie Dixon and the Horned Frogs' passing ability to dent the Knights' outstanding defense. TCU is an excellent passing team and has a backcourt edge. I really like its ball movement. The Horned Frogs averaged 17 assists per game. Dixon has had ample practice and preparation time to combat the freak presence of ace defender 7-foot-6 Tacko Fall. The Horned Frogs can create good matchups based on their passing ability. Fall has to deal with fatigue never having played this many games before. I just don't believe he'll be as big a factor as perceived and Central Florida doesn't have enough offense to compensate if its defense isn't playing at a high level.
03-27-17	Grizzlies -6.5 v. Kings	Top	90-91	Loss	-103	9 h 12 m	Show
Do you envision the Grizzlies losing to the Kings here? I don't. The question is can the Grizzlies win by enough of a margin to cover this number. I believe the setting is ripe for the Grizzlies to accomplish that even if Marc Gasol remains out. This is Memphis' final game of a four-game road swing. They lost the first three games to the Pelicans, Spurs and Warriors. No shame in losing to San Antonio and Golden State, perhaps the two best teams in the NBA. Now the Grizzlies step down from the elite to the bottom-five. That's what the Kings have become since giving away DeMarcus Cousins, going 3-12 since he departed. The Grizzlies' past 13 victories have all come by at least seven points. That's a promising sign figuring they are going to win this game. Memphis has dominated this series, too, winning 19 of the past 22 times. The Kings have to be fat and happy after pulling out a one-point road victory against the Clippers in their last game yesterday rallying from 18 points down with just five minutes left. That could be the most improbable comeback victory of the season. Now the Kings travel home where they have dropped seven of their last eight.
03-26-17	Kings +13.5 v. Clippers	Top	98-97	Win	100	7 h 42 m	Show
The Clippers have a poor track record in these types of situation. LA just clinched a playoff berth with a 108-95 home win against Utah on Saturday. That was a highyly-satisfying victory for LA. So it's going to be difficult for the Clippers to match that intensity against the struggling Kings. The Clippers are 1-8 ATS the past nine times versus foes with a losing record. They also have failed to cover the last five times following a double-digit victory. The Clippers are a playoff team, but they are not elite status. They've just been mediocre going 9-9 in their last 18 games. This marks their third game in four days and they are off the next two days so there could be a tendency to just win and relax. The Kings have become terrible since trading DeMarcus Cousins. They have a lot of youngsters playing for their futures so at least they should product a full effort.
03-26-17	South Carolina +3.5 v. Florida	Top	77-70	Win	100	9 h 10 m	Show
This game isn't going to be pretty. It's going to be an intense, grind-out, defensive matchup between two SEC foes who know each other well having split their two games this season. So I want South Carolina's defense, senior star guard Sindarius Thornwell and the points going for me. The Gamecocks ranked fifth nationally in turnovers forced per game. They've continued their outstanding defense in the tournament. Thornwell was the SEC Player of the Year and he hasn't disappointed in the Big Dance stepping up even more to average 25.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.0 steals while also making 10 of 22 3-pointers. He'll be the best player on the court. South Carolina displayed its defensive dominance in taking down Baylor, 70-50, on Friday holding the Bears to 30.4 percent from the floor. Florida had a much tougher game on Friday sneaking past Wisconsin in overtime, 84-83, on a 3-point buzzer-beater by Chris Chiozza. The Gators blew a late 12-point lead and it remains open to discussion how much energy that game took out of them both physically and mentally. The short turnaround is a major advantage for South Carolina.
03-25-17	Raptors +1 v. Mavs	Top	94-86	Win	100	17 h 25 m	Show
Toronto is playing with a lot of confidence, winners of four in a row. I consider the Raptors a better team than the Mavericks. That was proven just 12 days ago when Toronto blasted Dallas, 100-78. The Raptors outrebounded Dallas by 21 in that game. The Mavericks have ranked with the Kings as one of the worst rebounding teams since the All-Star break. Dirk Nowitzki can't cut it at center and the league has caught up to the Mavericks' youthful backcourt of Seth Curry and Yogi Ferrell. Their play has tailed way off after being initially surprisingly good. DeMar DeRozan is on fire producing consecutive 40-point games. Serge Ibaka is back from a one-game suspension to further exploit the Mavericks' rebounding weakness. Toronto has proven it can still win without Kyle Lowery going 10-5 in his absence.
03-25-17	Xavier v. Gonzaga -7.5	Top	59-83	Win	100	14 h 41 m	Show
Xavier is on a surprisingly great run. Gonzaga has yet to play its "A" game in the NCAA Tournament. The due factor is going to kick in here. Look for the Bulldogs to roll past Xavier by double-digits. The 11th-seeded Musketeers kept their miracle of winning the NCAA Tournament alive by closing on a 9-0 run to steal a 73-71 win from second-seed Arizona Thursday. Xavier and LSU of 1987 are the only teams in tournament history to take out three top six seeds during their first three games. That takes a big toll, though. And this is a quick turnaround. It has been a great run for Xavier. Much props to the Musketeers, but I see their season ending here. The team has too many imperfections, a size disadvantage with just one starter taller than 6-foot-6 and a key injury that will hurt them here with starting point guard Edmond Sumner missing after being lost for the season with a knee injury sustained in late January. Standout wing Trevon Bluiett isn't 100 percent either from an ankle injury. Critics of Gonzaga said the Bulldogs couldn't handle West Virginia's pressure defense. Gonzaga did. Now the Bulldogs face Xavier's zone defenses. They'll be ready for that, too, with a necessary inside/outside game that ranked No. 2 in the country in field goal percentage and the 3-point accuracy to rank 68th in 3-point percentage.
03-24-17	UCLA v. Kentucky +1	Top	75-86	Win	100	16 h 31 m	Show
Youth will be served here and I side with Kentucky's talent over UCLA. Lonzo Ball has had to face a lot of distractions due in large part to his big-mouthed dad. Ball is a great talent, but Kentucky also has great talent in its backcourt - and more depth there. Much is being mentioned about the Bruins beating the Wildcats, 97-92, at Rupp Arena back in early December. That was an impressive victory for UCLA. It ended the Wildcats' 42-game home win streak. The Bruins also shot 53 percent from the floor while the Wildcats made just 41 percent of their field goals, which was a season-low at the time. Kentucky isn't going to shoot that bad again and the Bruins aren't going to be that hot again. The Wildcats have been playing outstanding defense holding eight of their last nine opponents to 70 or less points. Opponents have shot under 40 percent during this span against Kentucky. It's a big advantage for the Wildcats - even though they lost - to have played UCLA because now they are fully aware of how fast the Bruins' ball movement is. They won't be taken by surprise not to mention they have a huge revenge factor. The Wildcats are the more physical team. They've yet to play a strong game in the Tournament so far. I say that comes here.
03-24-17	Cavs -2.5 v. Hornets	Top	112-105	Win	100	11 h 31 m	Show
The Cavaliers are two levels higher than the Hornets and shouldn't lack for motivation after getting blown out by the Nuggets, 126-113, this past Wednesday. That cut Cleveland's lead to just one game over Boston for top record in the Eastern Conference. LeBron James is as brilliant as ever, Kyrie Irving is having a strong month and the Cavaliers are finally fully healthy with both Kevin Love and Kyle Korver back from injuries. Irving is averaging nearly 40 points in his last two games. The Cavaliers are 3-0 versus the Hornets this season with a winning margin being by an average of 10 points. The Hornets have failed to cover in 10 of their last 14 home contests
03-23-17	Purdue v. Kansas -5	Top	66-98	Win	100	62 h 56 m	Show
Losing in their opening game of the Big 12 Conference Tournament is the best thing that happened to Kansas. That was two weeks ago and extra rest and motivation by that early exit have propelled the Jayhawks to peak at just the right time. Kansas already is arguably the best team in the country and the Jayhawks have played extremely well in the NCAA Tournament blowing by UC-Davis and defeating Michigan State by 20 points. That pushed the Jayhawks' ATS mark to 6-1 when laying points in the NCAA Tourney. Now the Jayhawks get another Big Ten team, Purdue. The Boilermakers lack the Spartans Big Dance Sweet 16 pedigree and while their defense is solid, it ranks among the bottom in steals and forcing turnovers. Kansas has the superior offense and it's in full throttle. The Jayhawks are averaging 87 points during their last five games. The Boilermakers' backcourt can't match Kansas' guard trio of Frank Mason III, Josh Jackson and Devonte' Graham. Those three are averaging a combined 50 points per game. Mason is especially rolling scoring 20 or more points in eight of his last nine games. Technically this is a netural site game being played at Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo. The reality is that it's almost a home game for Kansas being just 35 miles east of Lawrence, home of the Jayhawks. Kansas is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 neutral site games, too, while Purdue is 2-5 ATS the past seven times.
03-22-17	Bucks v. Kings +5	Top	116-98	Loss	-105	8 h 21 m	Show
This is a dangerous spot for the Bucks. They pulled off a road upset of Portland last night. This marks the end of their six-game, 10-day road trip. They are playing without rest with home games against Atlanta on Friday and long-time rival Chicag on Sunday looming. Milwaukee is playing well. But the Bucks aren't nearly mature enough to cover a margin like this if they don't produce at least a high "B" game. Milwaukee is 2-8 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. Sacramento has been idle the past two days. The Kings have been tough at home recently beating the Magic and taking the Wizards and Jazz to overtime during three of their last four home contests. The Wizards and Jazz are both superior to the Bucks.
03-21-17	Georgia Tech v. Ole Miss -5	Top	74-66	Loss	-110	20 h 34 m	Show
Georgia Tech isn't the same team on the road. The Yellow Jackets are 2-10 away from home. Yes, that's right. Georgia Tech has exactly two road victories. Mississippi has covered six of its last seven home games. The Rebels have had to play their first two NIT games on the road. They are coming off an 85-80 victory against heavyweight Syracuse, while Georgia Tech has had the benefit of playing its first two NIT games at home beating disjointed Indiana - which just fired its coach - and lightly regarded Belmont. It's not just having home-court. That's accounted for in the line. I like the way Mississippi is peaking. The Rebels ended the regular season defeating South Carolina, which has reached the Sweet 16. They followed that with a victory against Missouri in the SEC Tournament, a one-point loss to Arkansas and then road wins against Monmouth and Syracuse in the NIT. The Rebels are getting outstanding guard play from Terence Davis and Deandre Burnett. The two combined for 49 points against Syracuse, including hitting 11 3-pointers in burning the Orange's fabled zone defense. This doesn't bode well for Georgia Tech, which relies on defense to win. Davis has been hot for a while averaging 18.3 points during his last 11 games. Ole Miss also has Sebastian Saiz. He led the SEC in rebounding, ranking fifth in the nation. He's shot only 34 percent from the floor, though, during his past four games. He's better than a 46 percent shooter on the season. So he's due to play better giving the Rebels an inside-outside game.
03-18-17	Rockets -2.5 v. Nuggets	Top	109-105	Win	100	11 h 38 m	Show
Denver doesn't have the defense to slow down the Rockets. Houston beat Denver, 128-110, the past time it played at Pepsi Center this past December. I see the Rockets coming out strong again after a poor effort last night in a 128-112 road loss to the Pelicans. Houston is 16-5 ATS following a loss, 21-10 ATS versus foes with a losing record and 5-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Rockets are playing short-handed minus two injured players - Danilo Gallinari, their second-best player, and key reserve Wilson Chandler.
03-18-17	Northwestern v. Gonzaga -10.5	Top	73-79	Loss	-112	28 h 46 m	Show
Northwestern was lucky to escape Vanderbilt in its first round NCAA Tournament game Thursday. The Wildcats are NCAA Tourney novices. This also is their fifth game in 10 days.They are not good enough, nor ready to step up to face an opponent this good. Gonzaga could be the best team in the country and are far more tournament tested. I find this spread short as I see the Bulldogs burying Northwestern. While Northwestern is on Cloud Nine after getting past the Commodores, Gonzaga is in a kill-mood. The Bulldogs defeated South Dakota State by 20 points in their opening Big Dance game nearly covering a 23-point spread despite a flat performance. Bulldogs coach Mark Few was not happy with his team shooting less than 40 percent from the floor, missing 10 of 18 fgree throws and committing more turnovers than assists. Look for guard Nigel Williams-Goss and the rest of the Bulldogs to play far better. Gonzaga is superior to Wisconsin and the Badgers waxed the Wildcats, 76-48, last Saturday in the Big 10 Conference Tournament. Gonzaga is 20-5-1 ATS versus above .500 opponents.
03-17-17	UC-Davis +24 v. Kansas	Top	62-100	Loss	-110	11 h 36 m	Show
UC Davis is a team I've followed being on the West Coast and familar with the Big West Conference. The Aggies are better than perceived. They have athleticism, can play defense - holding their last four foes to less than 40 percent shooting - and have balanced scoring. The Aggies also won't be nearly as rusty as Kansas having defeated North Carolina Central this past Wednesday in the NCAA Tournament play-in game. The Aggies are excited to play in the NCAA Tournament, a first for them. A full effort from them should be forthcoming. Kansas has a different goal and that's to win not just this game but the entire tournament, a feat the Jayhawks are capable of achieving. So Kansas doesn't have the need to go all out every minute of this game with its starters. The Jayhawks also must deal with a rust factor. This is just their second game in 13 days. Kansas last played nine days ago and wasn't sharp losing to TCU in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Conference Tournament. Kansas is a mighty power, but it hasn't defeated an opponent by more than 19 points in its last 22 games. The Jayhawks are 0-5 the past five times laying 13 or more points, which coincides with their not being a strong favorite going 5-12-1 ATS the past 18 times as chalk. Bottom line is the Jayhawks haven't proven worthy of being good in the role of favorite and have no incentive to cover this big of a margin here.
03-16-17	Weber State v. CS-Fullerton +1	Top	80-76	Loss	-110	20 h 10 m	Show
Falling short in the Big Sky championship this past Saturday was a big deal for Weber State. That 93-89 overtime loss stung the Wildcats especially the seniors. Weber State had captured the Big Sky tournament two of the previous three seasons earning the right to play in the NCAA Tournament each time. Now the Wildcats have a short turnaround to travel and play Cal State Fullerton in a first round Collegeinsider.com Tournament game. It's a huge letdown for the Wildcats. I don't see the motivation here. Not so with Fullerton. The Titans finished third in the Big West and reached the semifinals of the conference tournament where they lost to eventual champion UC Davis, a team that just upset North Carolina Central on Wednesday in the NCAA Tournament. Fullerton finished strong winning eight of its last 10 regular season games. The Titans were the hottest team in the league down the stretch. They are excited about hosting this matchup. The Titans have an excellent player in Tre Coggins and are 12-3 at home. The Titans are athletic and play strong defense. Weber State has failed to cover in seven of its last eight road games. This is what Weber State coach Randy Rahe said about the Titans, "... We've got a challenge. We're going to have to play really well to be competitive with them."
03-14-17	CS Bakersfield +10.5 v. California	Top	73-66	Win	100	17 h 29 m	Show
Losses in six of their last nine games cost California an NCAA Tournament bid. The Bears' consolation prize is the NIT and hosting Cal Bakersfield in this first round game just two days after getting the highly disappointing news they won't be in the Big Dance. Do you think the Bears are excited to play in this game? I sure don't. This is what Cal coach Cuonzo Martin was quoted as saying: "(The players) were very disappointed and that's the challenge now: to get guys' energy levels up to play a game Tuesday night. They're very disappointed, but it goes with the territory." Cal has plenty of distractions, too. There are coaching rumors surrounding Martin. Senior Jabari Bird, Cal's leading scorer, is questionable due to a concussion. Sophomore forward Ivan Rabb, the team's No. 2 scorer, is considering entering the NBA draft. Bakersfield is a worthy enough opponent to spring a straight-up upset. The Roadrunners won the Western Athletic Conference regular-season title. They lost in the conference tournament title game to New Mexico State the day after winning a four-overtime semifinal game. The Roadrunners are the type of hard-nosed defensive team that can be most effective against a down-in-the-dumps opponent. They allowed just 63 points per game on 37.3 field goal shooting. Bakersfield is tournament tested, too. The Roadrunners made the NCAA Tournament last season throwing a scare into Final Four participant Oklahoma trailing by just five points with around four minutes left during their opening round game. The Roadrunners have covered seven of the last eight times in an underdog role and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road contests. These two teams last met on Dec. 28, 2014. That was Martin's first year at Berkeley. Bakersfield won, 55-52. The Roadrunners certainly are capable of repeating that feat especially considering the circumstances. Tuesday Free Play Georgia Tech plus 3 hosting Indiana (NIT) Back in November, Indiana was thought of as a possible Final Four contender after pulling off upsets of Kansas and North Carolina while Georgia Tech was considered a lower-rung ACC team. Rewind four months later to now. Georgia Tech has far exceeded expectations nearly making the NCAA Tournament. Indiana still has Final Four hopes - but for the NIT not NCAA. Of course that's disappointing for the Hoosiers. And it's likely they don't take this first-round NIT game as serious as Georgia Tech. Indiana declined to host this game even though it had the opportunity being the higher seed. The company line for turning down playing this matchup at home was renovations to Assembly Hall. The real reason, though, could be apathy and lack of good crowd support with the students off for spring break. The Hoosiers couldn't overcome injuries down the stretch. They lost six of their last eight regular-season games and were eliminated by Wisconsin in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament. So not only is Indiana in bad form, but I can't see the Hoosiers caring much about this game. Another distraction are rumors coach Tom Crean is going to leave Indiana possibly for Missouri. Georgia Tech will be motivated. Yellow Jackets' first-year head coach, Josh Pastner, believes it's a tremendous opportunity not only to play in the postseason, but to defeat a name school with a great basketball tradition. It's a home game for the Yellow Jackets and it's going to be on national television. Pastner is so psyched for this game he's offered to pay for the tickets of any student wanting to attend. As added motivation, the Yellow Jackets want to win so they could meet in-state rival Georgia in the second round if the Bulldogs should beat Belmont on Wednesday as expected. Georgia Tech may have played its most embarrassing home game of the season when it lost to Georgia, 60-43, on Dec. 20. The Yellow Jackets want revenge. The motivation angle works for the Yellow Jackets here, but are they actually good enough to beat Indiana? I certainly believe so with the key being they are playing at McCamish Pavilion. Georgia Tech went 14-4 there against Division I opponents posting home victories against Notre Dame, North Carolina, Florida State and Syracuse. Georgia Tech achieved its success with the nation's seventh most-efficient defense. The Yellow Jackets ranked 15th in defensive field goal percentage. They are led by 6-foot-10 junior center Ben Lammers, the ACC Defensive Player of the Year. He averages 14.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 3.3 blocks per game. Indiana is far more offensively inclined. The Hoosiers need to shoot well to win. They had problems with Wisconsin, the last strong defensive club they faced scoring just 60 points against the Badgers. Keep in mind, too, this was very much a down year in the Big Ten. The Yellow Jackets have been underrated all season. They've covered 12 of their last 16 games. They are a worthy underdog here.
03-12-17	Rhode Island v. VCU	Top	70-63	Win	100	5 h 1 m	Show
I'm going to roll with Rhode Island, which is playing its best basketball. The Rams are peaking winning their last seven games. Included among these victories is a 69-59 home victory against VCU that was achieved five games ago on Feb. 25. The Rams prevailed by double-digits in that win as 3 1/2-point favorites despite making just 35 percent of their shots from the floor. Rhode Island needs this victory to gain an automatic seed into the NCAA Tournament. A loss here to VCU could keep Rhode Island from making the tournament. VCU had to go overtime to beat Richmond in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Saturday. That was the later game, too. Rhode Island had a much easier time waltzing past Davidson by 24 points in the earlier Saturday semifinal game. I like that Rhode Island is hitting its ceiling, has less of a fatigue factor than VCU and is deep in the backcourt.
03-11-17	New Mexico State -2.5 v. CS Bakersfield	Top	70-60	Win	100	12 h 20 m	Show
This is the big rivalry matchup in the Western Athletic Conference. New Mexico State is playing at a high level winning its last four games all by 14 points or more. The Aggies have 27 wins, tying for the most victories in school history. The Aggies have revenge for a buzzer-beater loss to Cal State Bakersfield in the WAC Tournament Finals last season. The Aggies had won the previous four conference tournaments before that defeat. Only one New Mexico State player logged more than 33 minutes in the Aggies' 78-60 waltz over Missouri-Kansas City in Friday night's semifinal in Las Vegas. Bakersfield had it far, far rougher in the other semifinal game Friday night. The Roadrunners nipped Utah Valley, 81-80, in four overtimes! Jaylin Airington, the Roadrunners' leading scorer, played 49 minutes. Dedrick Basile, the team's third-leading scorer, was on the court for 53 minutes. Utah Valley was 6-8 in conference and only seeded fourth because Grand Canyon was ineligible for the postseason. The Aggies play an up-tempo style. The timing couldn't be worse for Bakersfield. I believe the Aggies are the superior team and now they have a huge situational element in their favor.
03-10-17	TCU v. Iowa State -4	Top	63-84	Win	100	9 h 11 m	Show
Tremendous job by TCU in stunning top-seeded Kansas, 85-82, yesterday in the Big 12 Conference Tournament. Unfortunately for the Horned Frogs they have no time to celebrate such a heady accomplishment. Iowa State is by far the superior team and catches TCU in a big letdown spot. The Horned Frogs had never defeated a top-three overall ranked team in 17 previous tries. They had entered the Big 12 tournament riding a seven-game losing streak. TCU was 2-10 the past 12 times versus .500 foes before upsetting the Jayhawks. Now the Horned Frogs' season has been made. The Cyclones are 7-1 in their last eight games, including rolling past TCU, 84-71, at home on Feb. 18. Iowa State has that needed excellent senior point guard in Monte Morris, who is playing with a chip on his shoulder after not being named a finalist for the Bob Cousy Award for nation's top point guard.
03-09-17	Clippers v. Grizzlies -3	Top	114-98	Loss	-105	13 h 56 m	Show
Neither team is playing well, but this game is far more crucial for the Grizzlies and they catch the Clippers carrying a heavy fatigue rating. This marks the Clippers' fifth game in seven days and second in two night. The Clippers have failed to cover five of the last six times when playing without rest. The Grizzlies are two game behind the Clippers for the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference. Memphis is off an embarrassing 122-109 home loss on Monday to the Nets, the worst team in the NBA. Memphis has had two full days to live with that loss. So the Grizzlies should be rested, well-prepared and fired-up. Mike Conley has outperformed Chris Paul recently averaging 29 points during his last five games. The Clippers were outrebounded by 14 boards and outscored by 22 points in the paint by the Timberwolves in a 107-91 road loss last night. That's an ominous sign for the Clippers taking on the physical Grizzlies, who rank fourth defensively and ninth in rebounding margin. The Clippers are 19th in rebounding margin and 13th defensively by comparison.
03-09-17	CS-Northridge v. CS-Fullerton -2	Top	68-81	Win	100	10 h 10 m	Show
These teams have gone in different directions leading up to the conference tournament. Cal State-Fullerton is 8-2 in its last 10 Big West games, covering six of their last seven. Cal State-Northridge has dropped six of its last seven. The Matadors' losses have coincided with losing big man Rakim Lubin to a torn Achilles on Feb. 4. He was the team's second-leading rebounder. The Titans have a size advantage and a very good senior guard in Tre Coggins. Fullerton also holds a talent edge, which was proven when the teams met this past Saturday at Northridge. The Titans beat the Matadors, 86-78. Northridge is 3-13 ATS following a loss.
03-08-17	UNLV v. San Diego State -9	Top	52-62	Win	100	17 h 45 m	Show
I can't see UNLV staying within double-digits of San Diego State in this first round Mountain West Conference Tournament game. The matchup is at Thomas & Mack Center, home of UNLV. But that won't matter. The Rebels lost their fan support weeks ago on their way to losing 12 of their last 15 games. The Rebels are poorly coached, don't play smart and aren't physically tough. Those are all fatal weaknesses going against San Diego State. The Aztecs are well-coached, rank 16th defensively in the country and have reached the tournament finals seven of the past eight years. UNLV is likely to be missing forward Tyrell Green, who is doubtful due to a knee injury. He didn't practice on Tuesday. Green is UNLV's second-leading scorer and No. 3 on the team in rebounding. The Rebels' frontcourt is even more vulnerable to the Aztecs without Green. San Diego State has defeated UNLV 10 consecutive times, including winning both games this season by 13 points each. UNLV is 2-8 ATS the past 10 times when taking between seven and 12 1/2 points.
03-06-17	BYU v. St. Mary's -6.5	Top	50-81	Win	100	18 h 25 m	Show
BYU's lack of depth and inexperience should prove fatal against Saint Mary's especially in such a short turnaround. The Cougars just defeated Loyola Marymount, 89-81, in the quarterfinals of the West Coast Conference Tournament on Saturday. Saint Mary's has shot better than 50 percent during 18 of its 30 games. The Gaels beat the Cougars, 81-68, at home and 70-57 at Provo this season. Both of those games were convincing double-digit wins for the Gaels, who led the Cougars by 25 points in the latter matchup played on Feb. 18. Saint Mary's has been golden in this spread range covering seven of the last eight times when favored between seven and 12 1/2-points.
03-05-17	Canucks v. Ducks -1.5	Top	2-1	Loss	-100	10 h 4 m	Show
This has blowout written all over it so I'm laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line. Vancouver played its guts out in hanging on to a 4-3 road victory against the Kings last night. The Canucks were outshot, 44-21, and outplayed but survived in large part because of outstanding goaltending by Ryan Miller. The Canucks are not in shape for this quick turnaround. They are playing without rest and for the third time in four days. Miller will be exhausted if he has to play again today. If he doesn't than mediocre backup Jacob Markstrom would be in net. Vancouver has lost the past five times following a victory. Even with the win against the Kings, the Canucks are just 9-20-1-2 on the road. Long-term, Vancouver is 20-45 away. Anaheim is 20-7-2-1 at home with wins in four of its last five home contests. The Ducks got the rust off from their bye week beating the Maple Leafs, 5-2, at home this past Friday. The Ducks can't afford to take Vancouver lightly as their next five games are against the Predators, Blackhawks on the road, Blues on the road, Capitals and Blues again.
03-03-17	Wisc-Milwaukee v. Detroit -1.5	Top	85-60	Loss	-110	11 h 13 m	Show
UW-Milwaukee coach LaVall Jordan knew he was going to have it rough in his first season as head coach of the Panthers. He was hired under difficult circumstances and the Panthers had a dreadful season going 8-23 while finishing last in the Horizon League at 4-14. But now can the Panthers turn things around in the conference tournament opening today against Detroit Mercy? No. The Panthers are a dead team losers of nine in a row. They just hosted Detroit Mercy two games ago on Feb. 24 losing 81-74. The Titans aren't exactly as a powerhouse, but they clearly are better than UWM. So I'm surprised at this low of a spread especially with the game being playing at Joe Louis Arena in Detroit. The Titans finished two games better than the Panthers in conference and have the two best players on the court in Corey Allen and Jaleel Hogan.
03-02-17	Hornets -3 v. Suns	Top	103-120	Loss	-110	16 h 46 m	Show
Charlotte made the playoffs last season and can't afford to lose to the Suns in its bid to make the postseason again this season. Right now they're 2 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot in the East. Yes, the Hornets appear down from a year ago. But they've been involved in some games with deceiving scores, have underrated Cody Zeller back in the lineup now and the Suns are the second-worst team in the NBA behind only the Nets. Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum are Charlotte's best players. But Zeller's return makes a difference because he provides defense at center. Charlotte is 23-17 when Zeller has played. He returned to the lineup in the Hornets' last game, a 109-104 win against the Lakers on Tuesday. Charlotte is 3-17 when Zeller hasn't played. Big man Frank Kaminsky also has been playing well for Charlotte averaging 19.9 points and 7.8 rebounds in his last 10 games. The Hornets were five-point road favorites against the Lakers. This line is shorter and the Suns have a better record than the Lakers. Phoenix has made no secret that it is playing for the future giving minutes to youngsters such as Alan Williams, Tyler Ulis and Derrick Jones Jr. at the expense of veterans Tyson Chandler and Brandon Knight. The Suns last played at home on Feb. 15. So their focus and concentration may not be all there especially with so many inexperienced players in the rotation now. The Suns rank 29th in defense. They've allowed triple digits in 22 of their last 23 games. Charlotte ranks 10th defensively yielding an average of eight fewer points per game than Phoenix.

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