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Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
05-02-21	Dodgers -1.5 v. Brewers	Top	16-4	Win	100	3 h 42 m	Show
I don't see the Brewers sweeping the Dodgers. Not with a pitching matchup of Julio Urias versus Alec Bettinger. Not with Milwaukee missing 15 players, including Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain and Omar Narvaez. Not with star relief pitcher Josh Hader almost certainly not being able to pitch. Urias has been one of the better pitchers during the last two seasons. His brilliance is overshadowed, though, being on such a strong Dodgers pitching staff. Urias is 3-0 with a 3.23 ERA this season. His last regular season loss was back in 2019. He is 2-1 lifetime versus the Brewers with a 2.86 ERA in four career starts. Bettinger will be making his big league debut. He is considered the Brewers' No. 23 prospect. Hader has pitched an inning each of the last three days, throwing a total of 45 pitches during this span. So I doubt the Brewers use him today.
05-01-21	Nuggets v. Clippers -5	Top	110-104	Loss	-105	10 h 27 m	Show
Early speculation is the Clippers will have superstar Kawhi Leonard for this game. Leonard has played just once during the last three weeks because of a sore foot. The Clippers have been targeting this matchup for Leonard to play. Even if Leonard has to sit out another game, I still like the Clippers to cover. LA is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games. Denver is 8-1 since losing its star, Jamal Murray. The Nuggets, though, have played weak-to-mediocre teams during this stretch. They are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
04-30-21	Golden Knights v. Coyotes +1.5	Top	0-3	Win	100	19 h 14 m	Show
The Coyotes are in desperation, must-win mode win trailing the Blues for the final playoff spot in the West Division. The Coyotes have a winning record in their past nine home games and are primed to give a strong effort here. The Golden Knights, on the other hand, enter this matchup fat and happy. Their playoff ticket is punched and they are off a highly-satisfying, 5-2, home victory against the Avalanche this past Wednesday. The Golden Knights regard the Avalanche as their main competitor in the Western Conference. This is a prime letdown spot for Las Vegas. So this sets up as a great ambush spot for Arizona. But to play it safe, I'm going to lay the juice and take 1 1/2 goals on the puck line.
04-29-21	Warriors -5 v. Wolves	Top	114-126	Loss	-110	14 h 10 m	Show
Break up the Timberwolves. Minnesota is riding a season-high three game winning streak. The Timberwolves upset powerful Utah twice and then got past lowly Houston, 114-107, this past Tuesday. The Warriors, a .500 team in a desperate struggle to earn the final spot in the Western Conference play-in tournament, are the first decent opponent Minnesota plays after stunning Utah twice. The Timberwolves have picked up their game since Karl-Anthony Towns, D'Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards have all been on the court together. But they are overdue for a letdown and I expect the Warriors to bring their "A" game after an embarrassing, 133-103, home loss to the Mavericks this past Tuesday. The Warriors have covered each of the last four times following a defeat.
04-28-21	Hawks +8.5 v. 76ers	Top	83-127	Loss	-115	11 h 2 m	Show
This opening point spread is a case of just looking at the last game's results. Those results from two days ago were the 76ers burying the hapless Thunder, 121-90, while the Hawks were getting upset by the lowly Pistons, 100-86. Before that victory against Oklahoma City, losers of 14 of its last 15 games, the 76ers had dropped four in a row. Philadelphia is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games. The Hawks had upset the Bucks two games ago leaving them ripe for a letdown against the Pistons. Despite multiple injuries, the Hawks have won and covered 11 of their last 15 games. I'm not expecting Trae Young to return to the Hawks' lineup yet. But Clint Capela has been playing as well as any big man in the league. Guard Kris Dunn made his season debut against the Pistons bolstering Atlanta's backcourt depth. It would not surprise me if the 76ers sat out Joel Embiid for this game. Embiid played against the Thunder, but was in pain due to a sore right shoulder. So I'm taking an early position here knowing if Embiid is rested this line will drop sharply.
04-25-21	Kings +9.5 v. Warriors	Top	113-117	Win	100	13 h 50 m	Show
The Kings covered for the eighth time in the past nine meetings against the Warriors when they rolled past Golden State, 141-119, at home on March 25. Sacramento was minus 4 1/2 points in that game. Now look at the spread. Quite a difference. Stephen Curry didn't play in that last meeting. Curry is back anc playing at his highest level, which is considerable. De'Aaron Fox is out for Sacramento due to COVID. Fox is the Kings' best player. Golden State is home this time and will have fans in the stand. This explains the huge point spread differential from the past meeting. But it's not enough to keep me off the Kings. I envision a much closer score than the oddsmaker does. The Kings are in must-win mode trailing the Warriors and Spurs by 5 1/2 games for the final two playoff spots in the West. The loss of Fox is huge. However, it weakens the Kings' bench more than the starting five because star rookie Tyrese Haliburton will move into the starting lineup now. There's a chance the Kings get back big man Richaun Holmes. He's practicing after missing the past five games with a hamstring injury. I'm expecting the Kings to go all out with their starters logging big minutes. The Kings will be well rested having last played this past Wednesday. Sacramento has covered 20 of the past 26 times for 77 percent when playing on three or more day's rest. The Kings have been playing well, too, winning two of their last three games. They have covered their last two road contests upsetting Dallas a week ago and coming within eight points of the Suns on April 15. The Warriors are in a letdown spot coming off a huge and impressive, 118-97, home victory against the Nuggets two days ago. Golden State's depth is down with rotation players Kent Bazemore, Damion Lee, Eric Paschall and James Wiseman all out. So the Kings' backup players won't be so vulnerable.
04-21-21	Nuggets v. Blazers +2	Top	106-105	Win	100	12 h 18 m	Show
The Nuggets are 3-0 since watching the horror of Jamal Murray go down for the season with a torn ACL. Denver has managed to beat the Heat, the hapless Rockets and the Grizzlies in double overtime this past Monday rallying from a 12-point deficit with less than four minutes left in regulation. Now, though, the Nuggets are without Murray and fellow guard Monte Morris. He's out with a hamstring injury. Denver escaped the Grizzlies despite committing 24 turnovers. I don't see the Nuggets escaping on the road here against Portland. The Trail Blazers are off a 113-112 home loss to the Clippers last night. Portland came very close despite not having Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic. Lillard is Portland's best player and Nurkic is their best front-court player. Both Lillard and Nurkic are expected to play against the Nuggets. The Trail Blazers' huge backcourt edge should carry them through.
04-18-21	Maple Leafs -1.5 v. Canucks	Top	2-3	Loss	-114	10 h 10 m	Show
Toronto is one of the best teams in hockey. The Maple Leafs are in rare stop-the-pain mode losers of three in a row, including an embarrassing 5-2 home loss to the Jets in their last game this past Thursday. The Maple Leafs are in a great scheduling spot here. They draw Vancouver, which hasn't played since March 24 because of an outbreak of COVID-19 that affected 22 of its players. Not only have the Canucks not played since then, but they've only been able to practice once during this long idle period. They still could be down as many as seven players. The Canucks certainly could use more time to get ready, but the league is anxious for them to resume their season. The Canucks are not up to par physically or mentally. I can't see them hanging close to the Maple Leafs regardless if Austin Matthews, the NHL's top goal scorer, plays or not after sitting out Thursday with a hand injury. Toronto has won five of the last six times it has been a road favorite. They are in a great spot to add to that record.
04-12-21	Rangers v. Rays -1.5	Top	0-1	Loss	-107	15 h 50 m	Show
I like Tyler Glasnow. We all like Tyler Glasnow. Now here's a chance to back him at home at a low price via the run line in what should be an easy victory for Tampa Bay. Glasnow is in the argument for third-best pitcher in the American League behind Gerrit Cole and Shane Bieber. He should dominate a weak-hitting Rangers club that has scored six runs in their last four games. Glasnow has given up one run in 12 innings that season with 15 strikeouts. The rebuilding Rangers are going with prospect Dane Dunning. He pitched well in his Rangers debut this past Tuesday holding Toronto to one run in five innings. Now, though, opponents have film and a more detailed scouting report on the right-handed Dunning. Tampa Bay is 42-11 in its last 53 home games when facing a righty starter. The Rangers have played their last six games at home where they were the only team in the majors allowing 100 percent fan capacity. Now the Rangers go to a tough and unusual venue, Tropicana Park. Dunning isn't the only young player on the Rangers. So I can easily envision the lowly Rangers struggling in this foreign setting against a much superior opponent. Each of the Rays' last three victories have been by more than one run.
04-11-21	Pistons +12.5 v. Clippers	Top	124-131	Win	100	12 h 17 m	Show
I know it doesn't say much for the Pistons when Jerami Grant is the team's best player and he may not even play after missing the past two games due to a sore knee. But the Pistons aren't as bad as perceived. They are 4-4 in their last eight games. Detroit 13-5 ATS the past 18 times when taking more than 6 points. This does mark Detroit's fifth and final road game of its current away swing. The Pistons, though, have a lot of young players looking to make their mark. They got their rest last night in a poorly played, 118-103, loss to the Trail Blazers. I believe the Pistons will show more energy and effort in this game. Detroit had shot better than 50 percent from the floor in their previous three games before Portland. The Clippers are fat and happy posting a 6-2 mark during their current homestand. It would be hard to blame the Clippers if they took the Pistons too lightly here. LA is still tinkering with its rotation. Serge Ibaka and Patrick Beverley are both out. Rajon Rondo and DeMarcus Cousins are trying to get their footing. Paul George is dealing with a bruised foot. Kawhi Leonard always is a candidate for rest against a sub .500 opponent.
04-09-21	Rockets +12 v. Clippers	Top	109-126	Loss	-108	12 h 55 m	Show
The Clippers enter this matchup against the lowly Rockets fat and happy. LA is riding a three-game win streak, is playing at home for the eighth consecutive game and coming off a highly-satisfying victory against the Suns last night. LA's last four games have been against the Suns, Trail Blazers, Lakers and Nuggets. Now the Clippers get a huge drop in class. The last time the Clippers hosted a below .500 foe was five games ago against the Magic on March 30. Orlando sprung a 103-96 upset in that game. The Rockets are more respectable since getting John Wall and Christian Wood back from injury. They proved that in their last game when they upset the Mavericks, 102-93, at home this past Wednesday. The Rockets displayed tough defense and renewed spirit. So they are capable. I wouldn't be shocked either if Kawhi Leonard sat out. He played 38 minutes against the Suns last night and even got poked in the eye, which he said bothered his vision during the game. If Leonard is indeed rested, this line will go down several points.
04-08-21	Suns v. Clippers -5	Top	103-113	Win	100	19 h 14 m	Show
If there were still any doubt about the Suns not being an elite team it was laid to rest on Wednesday night when Phoenix beat Utah, 117-113, in overtime. Only the Jazz have a better record in the NBA than the Suns. No team has been better against the spread than Phoenix, which has covered 66 percent of its games this season with a 33-17 ATS mark. The Suns have won seven in a row. Yet I'm going against the Suns today. Normally I'd either play on the Suns, or avoid them. They have been the wrong team to fade. Not this time, though. It's not who you play in the NBA when it comes to point spread covers during the regular season, but when you play them. This situation is just too good to ignore the Clippers. Not only are the Clippers an elite team themselves - certainly capable of winning the NBA championship - but they catch the Suns in a horrible spot. The Jazz-Suns Wednesday showdown lived up to the hype. Both teams laid it on the line like it was the seventh game of a playoff series. There was no holding back. The Suns wanted to prove to their fans and to a national TV audience that they indeed are for real. That point was proven, but the price didn't come cheap. Chris Paul, who turns 36 in less than a month, played a season-high 43 minutes against Utah. Devin Booker logged nearly 44 minutes. Deandre Ayton went more than 41 minutes. He hadn't played more than 40 minutes all season. The Suns also played a tight game this past Monday getting past Houston, 133-130, on the road. So they are playing for the third time in four days, all at different venues, and without rest. The Suns are not the deepest of teams. The Clippers are back to full strength with the exception of Serge Ibaka. LA strengthened its rotation by signing DeMarcus Cousins, who says he's in the best shape of his life. The Clippers were idle on Wednesday following an easy, 133-116, home win against the Trail Blazers this past Tuesday. This will be the second meeting between Phoenix and LA. The Clippers defeated the Suns, 112-107, at Phoenix on Jan. 3. Paul George led the way with a season-high 39 points. The Clippers led by 20 at halftime. There was a lot of trash talking in that game. The Clippers have covered eight of their last 10 home games. They are 8-1 ATS the last nine times hosting the Suns. The NBA schedule makers did the Suns no favor scheduling them for this matchup following a home game against the Jazz. The Clippers are going to be up for this game and they have the talent to blow out any opponent, Phoenix included. I can't see the Suns coming up with anything resembling an "A" level performance and effort after Wednesday's tremendous home victory, perhaps the best moment of the season for them. This one goes to the Clippers and I don't expect the score to be close.
04-06-21	Bulls v. Pacers +1	Top	113-97	Loss	-103	8 h 57 m	Show
The Pacers are off a 139-133 road victory against the Spurs this past Saturday. That's significant for several reasons. It halted a three-game Indiana losing streak and the Pacers accomplished that impressive feat minus Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon. Those are arguably Indiana's two best players. So it's not asking too much for the Pacers to just beat the Bulls at home even if Sabonis and Brodgon have to sit out again. Each is questionable. Indiana has had two full days to rest and game plan. The Bulls have dropped their last four road games, including a 120-104 loss to the Spurs on March 27. Indiana has covered six of the past seven in the series.
04-04-21	Grizzlies v. 76ers -3	Top	116-100	Loss	-110	9 h 40 m	Show
The 76ers are dominant at home, the point spread is lower than I anticipated and Joel Embiid is back. This is enough to put me on the 76ers. Philadelphia is 20-4 at home this season. The 76ers have covered 68 percent of their past 52 home games. Memphis is 4-11 ATS the past 15 times when on the road meeting a foe with a winning home record. The Grizzlies have failed to cover during their last four visits to Philadelphia. Embiid wasn't rusty after missing 10 games due to a bruised knee scoring 24 points against the Timberwolves on Saturday.
04-03-21	Houston v. Baylor -5	Top	59-78	Win	100	79 h 35 m	Show
Before Baylor had to pause its season for three weeks due to COVID-19 back in early February, the Bears were right up there with Gonzaga as the best team in the country. I wouldn't put Baylor back in that super elite class where only Gonzaga resides. But I would the Bears at their own Tier 2 level, a class above Houston. I don't want to denigrate the Cougars. Baylor, however, checks all the boxes for me in this matchup. The Bears possess speed, size and shooting. They average 85.3 points. Houston hasn't broken the 67-point mark in each of its last three games and that's facing inferior competition compared to who Baylor has played. The Bears have won their four NCAA Tourney games by an average of 14.2 points, defeating superior foes than who Houston has beaten. The Cougars have had an easy path not playing a team ranked higher than a No. 10 seed. Their tourney victories were against Cleveland State, Rutgers, Syracuse and Oregon State. Baylor not only is high-scoring, but its defense has shutdown capabilities. The Bears could have the best backcourt trio in the nation with Jared Butler, MaCio Teague and Davion Mitchell, who could be the top defensive player in the country. Houston is a tremendous defensive club. No team is more accurate from 3-point range, though, than the Bears, who make 42.9 percent from beyond the arc. So this negates Houston's inside defensive strength.
03-31-21	Bucks -8 v. Lakers	Top	112-97	Win	100	21 h 50 m	Show
Minus LeBron James and Anthony Davis, the Lakers still are capable of dispatching dregs like the Magic and Cavaliers. But they can't hang in against a motivated elite opponent. The Bucks are one such foe. The Lakers draw an angry Bucks team with something to prove having lost three in a row with the latest defeat being a crushing 125-109 road loss to the Clippers two days ago. The Bucks haven't had to travel following that loss because this game is at Staples Center, too. Milwaukee also has revenge motivation for a 113-106 home loss to the Lakers back in January. James was the key in that game scoring 34 points. Davis had 18 points. The Lakers are hoping newly signed Andre Drummond can make a difference. Drummond hasn't played since Feb. 12. His minutes are going to be restricted here and he figures to be plenty rusty.
03-31-21	Flyers v. Sabres +1.5	Top	1-6	Win	100	15 h 22 m	Show
The Sabres won't have a better chance of ending their hideous 18-game losing streak than right here. But can they be trusted? Heck no. That's why I'm backing them on the puck line taking 1 1/2 goals and laying juice believing this is going to be an extremely close game between two teams who are playing terribly. It sure went that way this past Monday night. Buffalo jumped to a 3-0 lead before proceeding to lose, 4-3 in overtime. It may have been the Sabres' most frustrating loss of the season, which is saying a lot since you need a calculator to add up all of their defeats. Now the Sabres get their revenge opportunity. Motivation can mean everything, but it won't work if the talent level isn't there. Fortunately for the Sabres, the Flyers are extremely mediocre with the worst defense and penalty kill in the league. Philadelphia is 5-9 in its last 14 games. If laying 1 1/2 goals, the Flyers would be riding a 16-game losing streak themselves. They haven't won a game by more than one goal this entire month.
03-29-21	Arkansas +8 v. Baylor	Top	72-81	Loss	-106	19 h 28 m	Show
It takes some luck to reach the Elite Eight. It's very difficult to produce an A game in every pressure-packed matchup. Arkansas got away with that against Oral Roberts in its last game. I'm expecting the Razorbacks to play much better against Baylor, which hasn't been the dominant team it was earlier in the season before having to sit out games because of COVID-19 protocols. I consider Baylor closer to the rest of the remaining teams rather than sitting on the top perch alongside Gonzaga. The Razorbacks aren't getting a lot of love despite peaking at the right time covering 10 of their last 13 games. Arkansas has the defense, necessary guard play and coaching to if not spring the direct upset, at least hang closer than this point spread indicates. Arkansas has the capacity to effectively mix up its defensive coverages. This is crucial in facing Baylor. The Razorbacks held all three of their NCAA Tourney opponents - Colgate, Texas Tech and Oral Roberts - below their season scoring averages. Arkansas is now 10th in defensive efficiency going by the KenPom.com ratings. Moses Moody provides the Razorbacks with an upper level guard. He was instrumental in the Razorbacks ranking seventh in the nation in scoring at 83.3 points a game, which is right there with Baylor's 85.3. Eric Musselman is one of my favorite college coaches. His past teams have a history of not getting rattled in the NCAA Tourney when falling behind. I trust Musselman and the Razorbacks to keep this a close game.
03-28-21	Oregon +2 v. USC	Top	68-82	Loss	-104	17 h 59 m	Show
USC reached this point by beating Drake and Kansas holding those two worthy opponents to a combined 29.2 percent shooting from the floor. It was a combination of outstanding Trojans defense and poor shooting by the Bulldogs and Jayhawks. I expect Oregon to shoot much better than those teams. I like the Ducks' ability to adapt and follow Dana Altman's tremendous coaching. The Ducks have shot 52 percent, or better, in five of their last seven games. They surprised Iowa, 95-80, by playing extremely fast. Oregon has the Pac-12's most efficient offense and also ranked No. 1 in 3-point percentage. The Hawkeyes seemed caught by surprise how well the Ducks played in transition. The Ducks hit 11 3-pointers against Iowa. Oregon is now 15-1 when making at least eight 3-point shots. USC ranks 173rd in 3-point defense. The Trojans hold a rebounding edge with their tremendous size. USC defeated Oregon, 72-58, at home on Feb. 22. That was a rare late-season defeat for Oregon, which is 13-2 in its last 15 games. I'm sure the astute Altman learned from that earlier loss to USC. The Ducks have the flexibility to play various effective styles of zone defenses and to also employ a deadly full court press. They can play fast or slow with equal efficiency. Oregon also has the outside shooting prowess to offset USC's size advantage. Oregon holds a free throw edge, too. The Ducks make 71.2 percent of their free throws. USC was the worst free throwing shooting team in the Pac-12 at 64.3 percent. The Ducks have reached the regional semifinal in four of the past five tournaments. They have covered 10 of the last 11 times they've been a 'dog in NCAA Tourney action. USC hasn't reached the Sweet 16 since 2007.
03-25-21	Boise State v. Memphis -4	Top	56-59	Loss	-110	17 h 21 m	Show
There's only one way to look at this game - and it's not backing the Mountain West Conference team, Boise State. Memphis holds a clear class difference on Boise State not fully reflected in the betting line. The Tigers are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Their only losses during this span occurred to Houston, the No. 6 rated team in the nation. Those defeats were by two and three points, respectively. Memphis has taken care of business when favored covering 10 of the last 11 times in that role. The Tigers also are a blazing 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games, including covering in their last seven games. Boise State, on the other hand, played its best ball early in the season. They are far from peak form now. If the Broncos didn't nip SMU, 85-84, in their first round NIT game they would be 0-5 in their last five games. The Broncos played Houston back at the start of the season and lost by 10 points on the road. If the Broncos are going to hang in they'll have to do it without Abu Kigab and Max Rice. Kigab is the Broncos' second-leading scorer and rebounder. He's also considered their best defender. Rice is part of the Broncos' guard rotation and a good perimeter shooter. Both were hurt late in the season. Memphis has a tall frontcourt. The Tigers are an excellent defensive team ranking No. 2 nationally in 3-point defense and ninth in defensive field goal percentage. The Tigers displayed their depth, athleticism and defense in rolling past Dayton, 71-60, as 5 1/2-point favorites in their first round NIT matchup. The Tigers grabbed 18 more boards than the Flyers.
03-24-21	Hornets v. Rockets +3.5	Top	122-97	Loss	-105	15 h 18 m	Show
The record shows 12-30 for Houston. But are the Rockets really that bad? No, not when they are healthy. The Rockets are nearly back to full strength with John Wall, Christian Wood and Victor Oladipo all available. Houston has enough talent to be respectable. However, to get behind the Rockets you have to believe that they believe in themselves. Is the mental aspect there? It should be after the Rockets snapped a humiliating, franchise-worse 20-game losing streak with a smashing 117-99 home win against the Raptors this past Monday. Joy. Relief. Confidence. The Rockets expressed all of those emotions following that victory. Oladipo even sat out that game as the Rockets chose to give him a rest day. Wall and Wood played well against Toronto. This is important in case Oladipo sits out again as his name is being bantered about in trade rumors. Equally important in this handicap is going against the Hornets. I don't find Charlotte a very good team especially now with star rookie LaMelo Ball likely out for the rest of the season after suffering a broken wrist. Ball was instrumental in the Hornets defeating the Rockets, 119-94, last month with 24 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds. Ball was injured this past Saturday. Charlotte beat San Antonio, 100-97, in its last game this past Monday. Teams often play extremely hard in the first game following a major injury to their star player. The Hornets also were fortunate to draw the Spurs in a flat spot playing in their first home game since returning from a five-game road swing. The Spurs looked and played tired in that game. Now it's the Hornets' turn to be tired as this marks their fifth game in eight days. They've been on the road for the past nine days. The Hornets return to Charlotte following this matchup. The Hornets are 2-7 (22 percent) ATS the past nine times after winning their previous game. They also have a history of struggling when playing in Houston going 3-14-2 ATS during their last 19 visits. Stephen Nover Free Wednesday Play Spurs plus 6 hosting Clippers Gregg Popovich in an underdog role and a home one at that. Sign me up for the Spurs here. San Antonio has covered 68 percent of the time it has been a 'dog the past 28 times. The Spurs will have around 3,200 fans for this game, just the third time this season spectators are allowed to attend San Antonio home contests. The Clippers are playing well, but this spot sets up nicely for the Spurs. There is line value because the Spurs lost, 100-97, at home to the Hornets in their last game two days ago. The backstory to that defeat, though, was the Spurs had just returned home following a successful 3-2 five-game road trip that had concluded Saturday night in Milwaukee. The Spurs came out flat against Charlotte and could not recover. I see the Spurs performing much better against the Clippers, a team they dislike because of the presence of Kawhi Leonard. You may recall Leonard forcing his way out of San Antonio during the summer of 2018. That earned him the lasting enmity of the San Antonio population. The Spurs certainly got up for the Clippers when the teams last met on Jan. 5 in Los Angeles. San Antonio won, 116-113, as 7 1/2-point 'dogs. The Clippers enter this matchup off an impressive, 119-110, home victory against the Hawks this past Monday. That snapped the Hawks' eight-game win streak. LA, however, has failed to cover four of the last five times it has been a road favorite.
03-23-21	Stetson v. Coastal Carolina -7	Top	72-77	Loss	-117	15 h 0 m	Show
It's not often I write that the Sun Belt Conference holds a major class difference. But that's the case here with Coastal Carolina going against Stetson of the Atlantic Sun Conference in a semifinal matchup of the CBI Tournament. Coastal Carolina is one of the best teams in the Sun Belt. The Chanticleers are 15-6 while Stetson is 10-13 competing in the Atlantic Sun, one of the weakest conferences in Division I. The Hatters were 3-4 before upsetting disinterested Bowling Green, 53-52, on Monday to reach this semifinal matchup. One win and you're in the semifinals? Hey it's the CBI Tournament. Stetson is 1-4 ATS following a win. The Hatters have a cool nickname, but that's about the only good thing I can say. They are mediocre offensively and well below average on defense. Coastal Carolina ranks 22nd in the country in scoring averaging 80.4 points. The Chanticleers also ranked 10th in defensive field goal percentage. They just beat Bryant, 93-82, on Monday. Bryant averages nearly 20 more points per game than Stetson. The Chanticleers play fast and are strong on the offensive glass ranking 12th nationally in offensive rebounding rate. Stetson ranks 227th in defensive field goal percentage. Coastal Carolina can get sloppy handling the ball, but the Hatters lack the defense to take advantage.
03-21-21	Lakers +10 v. Suns	Top	94-111	Loss	-108	11 h 34 m	Show
Get ready for a new Pacific Division champion because the defending champion Lakers aren't going to be heard from until the playoffs. Down Anthony Davis and now LeBron James, the Lakers are far from elite anymore. Through some 40-plus games in the season, there are just three elite teams in the Western Conference: the Jazz, Clippers and Suns. The Lakers have been erased from that list. But I don't question the Lakers' heart. They've had 24 hours to digest losing James to a sprained ankle, suffered against the Hawks in a 99-94 home loss Saturday. This will be their first full game since James suffered his ankle injury. LA will be highly motivated to perform well against a rising power especially in this first game of James being out. The Suns are an emerging power. Devin Booker is nearing superstar status. Chris Paul still is highly effective. However, the Suns are young and haven't been in this role before laying such a huge number against this opponent. I doubt the Suns bring their "A" game knowing they already defeated the Lakers by 10 points in LA earlier this month when James was playing. I'm expecting a Suns letdown and a huge effort by the Lakers with the result being an LA cover.
03-18-21	SMU v. Boise State	Top	84-85	Win	100	31 h 30 m	Show
Boise State is the No. 2 seed while SMU is the No. 3 seed for the National Invitational Tournament. The higher seed doesn't always mean that team is the better one. But in this case it's justified. SMU averages 67.1 points per game. Boise State trumps that, averaging 76.2 points. The Broncos also give up fewer points per game, surrendering 66.3 compared to SMU's 67.1. Boise State checks another box having senior leadership and a star guard in Derrick Alston Jr. There also is a COVID-19 angle here that works against SMU. This will be just the Mustangs' fourth games since the start of February. SMU last played a regular season game Feb. 8. The Mustangs weren't in action again until this past Friday when they lost 74-71 to Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference Tournament. The Mustangs were 5-point favorites in that game. The combination of COVID-19 and bad weather in Dallas caused the Mustangs to miss the final eight games of their regular season. So I don't see them being anywhere near peak form here.
03-17-21	Sharks v. Golden Knights -1.5	Top	4-5	Loss	-100	19 h 44 m	Show
Returning home from a six-game road trip, the Golden Knights were far from sharp when they hosted San Jose this past Monday. Sure enough Las Vega was flat. But the Golden Knights still managed to beat San Jose, 2-1. Now the Golden Knights are more rested and primed to destroy the opponent they hate the most. Las Vegas is the vastly superior team and won't lack motivation. The Golden Knights are third defensively giving up 2.2 goals per game. Marc-Andre Fleury is in the argument for best goalie this season. Las Vegas is a top-10 scoring team. The Sharks give up the most goals per game in the league at 3.5. They also allow the second-most shots on goal. Las Vegas has defeated San Jose five times in a row. The Sharks are 6-13 the past 19 times when playing on one day's rest. The Golden Knights have won 69 percent of their last 52 home contests. Kill spot here so I'm laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line.
03-14-21	VCU +3 v. St Bonaventure	Top	65-74	Loss	-110	9 h 41 m	Show
These are two great defensive teams. So getting points, no matter how few, really matters. I believe Virginia Commonwealth is slightly better than St. Bonaventure so taking points here in this Atlantic 10 Conference Championship Game is a bonus. VCU and St. Bonaventure last met on Feb. 12. The Rams won the home game, 67-64. despite making just 36 percent of their shots. Their superstar, Nah'Shon Hyland, had a bad shooting game making just 5 of 16 shots from the floor. St. Bonaventure shot 44 percent from the field. Yet VCU still won. That's telling. The Rams pulled down 19 offensive rebounds and forced 18 turnovers. I'm expecting the Rams to play their trademark pressing defense, which is going to force turnovers, and to shoot better from the floor especially Hyland. VCU has better depth than the Bonnies. The Rams haven't permitted an opponent to reach 70 points in regulation during their past 11 games.
03-12-21	Akron v. Buffalo -4	Top	74-81	Win	100	10 h 16 m	Show
Akron doesn't force many turnovers and is a below average defensive rebounding team. I don't trust the Zips on offense either. Buffalo ranks fifth in the nation in 3-point defense. The Zips lack the consistency Buffalo has shown. The Bulls have scored 80 or more points in seven of their last nine games. They are averaging 84.6 points during their past six games. On the season, the Bulls rank ninth in scoring at 82.7 points and are the best offensive rebounding team in the country. They can really exploit Akron's weakness in defensive rebounding. The Bulls are peaking at the right time. They are 9-1 in their last 10 games, riding a six-game win streak. Their lone loss during this span came to Toledo, which is the best team in the MAC.
03-12-21	Georgetown v. Seton Hall -2.5	Top	66-58	Loss	-103	14 h 20 m	Show
Kudos to Georgetown for upsetting Villanova on Thursday, 72-71, on a pair of free throws by Dante Harris with 4.7 seconds left. But now the Hoyas have to play a third straight day having also upset Marquette two days ago. Georgetown faces a refreshed and rejuvenated Seton Hall squad. The Pirates knocked off St. John's on Thursday. The Pirates' last played six days ago before defeating the Red Storm. That victory and cover against St. John's pushed Seton Hall coach Kevin Willard's point spread record to 10-0 in Big East Tournament games. The Pirates are 18-7-1 (72 percent) in their last 26 neutral site games. This matchup is being played at neutral site Madison Square Garden. Seton Hall is the better team with the stronger bench and best player on the court in Sandro Mamukelashvili. The Hoyas lack depth, which could prove telling given this being their third game in three days.
03-10-21	Nebraska v. Penn State -6	Top	66-72	Push	0	17 h 26 m	Show
This is the spot where Nebraska really is going to miss its leading scorer and star player, Teddy Allen, who decided not to finish the season. Penn State scores more points and gives up fewer points than Nebraska. That's why the Nittany Lions are mid-sized favorites in this first round Big Ten Conference matchup being played at neutral site Indianapolis. But there's more than just that. I don't trust any of Nebraska's players to step up in Allen's absence. Penn State, on the other hand, has been getting strong performances down the stretch from Myreon Jones, its leading scorer, and Seth Lundy, who is coming off a 31-point scoring game in a 66-61 victory against Maryland this past Sunday. The Nittany Lions enter this matchup with the confidence of winning three of their last four, including that upset road win against Maryland. Another one of Penn State's victories during this recent four-game span was 86-83 against Nebraska. The Cornhuskers had Allen in that game and he torched Penn State for 41 points on 16-of-24 shooting from the floor. Yet Nebraska couldn't win even with Allen at his best. Now the Cornhuskers don't have him. Penn State also is a far better free throw shooting team than Nebraska. The Nittany Lions rank 98th in free throw percentage at 73 percent. Nebraska, by contrast, ranks 333rd in free throw percentage at 63.5 percent.
03-09-21	Cal Poly v. CS-Fullerton -5.5	Top	87-82	Loss	-110	18 h 3 m	Show
This is a play-in game to the Big West Conference Tournament, which is being held at neutral site Mandalay Bay hotel in Las Vegas. The oddsmaker doesn't put much emphasis on the small Big West Conference. The opening number shows this. Cal Poly SLO is absolutely terrible. The Mustangs have lost 17 of their last 18 games. They rank 342nd in scoring at 60.9 points and are 335th in field goal percentage. The Mustangs' scoring has been even worse lately as they are averaging 59.5 points during their past five games. Cal-State Fullerton averages 76.7 points, nearly 16 more points per game than Cal Poly. The Titans hold a huge talent gap. Tray Maddox Jr. is second in the Big West in scoring at 16.5 points per game. Josh Hall is the No. 2 rebounder in the conference and Vincent Lee leads the Big West in field goal percentage making 58.6 percent of his shots. So why did the oddsmaker set such a short line on the Titans? Cal-State Fullerton had a COVID-19 pause after its Feb. 20 game. The Titans didn't play again until this past Friday and Saturday. They lost both of those games to San Diego, a former Division II school ineligible to participate in the tournament since they are transitioning to the Big West. So those games were basically meaningless. The Titans used those matchups to get the rust off and as a tune-up for the tournament. The Titans know they must step up their game with UC Irvine on deck to face the winner of this matchup. The Titans have the perfect patsy to face in the Mustangs.
03-06-21	Butler +13 v. Creighton	Top	73-93	Loss	-110	13 h 28 m	Show
If you're going to have a college basketball coaching controversy don't have it happen right before conference tournament time. Unfortunately for Creighton that's what's going on now with its program. The Bluejays suspended their coach, Greg McDermott, two days ago for comparing his program to a plantation. McDermott's job hangs in the balance and the Bluejays' concentration level for this matchup comes into serious question. Creighton has not been playing well losing 72-60 to Villanova this past Wednesday. The Bluejays fell to Xavier, 77-69, in their previous game before Villanova. Butler, on the other hand, is showing signs of peaking. Unlike Creighton, the Bulldogs just defeated Villnova this past Sunday, 73-61. The Bulldogs also upset Seton Hall, 61-52, in their previous game before meeting Villanova. The Bulldogs are shaping up as a dangerous foe heading into next week's Big East Conference Tournament. They have surrendered just 58.6 points in their last three games. The Bluejays and Bulldogs met back on Jan. 16 when Creighton was playing much better. Yet the Bulldogs won, 70-66. Sparked by Chuck Harris, one of the better freshmen guards in the country, it wouldn't shock me if Butler won this game straight-up again.
03-05-21	Louisiana-Monroe v. South Alabama -5	Top	72-80	Win	100	15 h 47 m	Show
I have this matchup power-rated considerably higher, so high that it merits my strongest Sun Belt Conference play of the season. South Alabama enters this opening round Sun Belt Conference Tournament game in Pensacola, Fla., going 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games. The Jaguars average 11 points more per game than Louisiana-Monroe. The Jaguars have the best player in the matchup by far in guard Michael Flowers, who averages 20.8 points. Russell Harrison is the only player on the Warhawks averaging more than 12 points and he scored less than 13 points a game. South Alabama isn't a deep team, but that shouldn't matter here in this first-round tournament matchup. The Jaguars last played six days ago. Monroe went 5-13 for the worst mark in the Sun Belt Conference West Division. The Warhawks have averaged only 58 points during their last three games. South Alabama has scored at least 70 points in six of its last nine games. The Warhawks commit the most fouls in the Sun Belt and are bad at defending 3-point shots. South Alabama gets to the free throw line and ranks 65th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. So the matchup edges definitely are there for South Alabama.
03-04-21	Thunder +7 v. Spurs	Top	107-102	Win	100	9 h 29 m	Show
It's tough to do after last night's game. I know so well. I had the Thunder plus eight points against the Mavericks on Wednesday attacking the overnight line in the hopes Luka Doncic would be held out. As it turned out this is what I had going in Wednesday's Thunder-Mavericks game: Maximum line value - checkmark. Dallas closed a 5-point favorite. Doncic out - checkmark. He didn't play. Mavericks greatly missing Doncic - checkmark. The Thunder held Dallas to 87 points, which easily was the Mavericks' lowest-scoring game of the season. Thunder getting the cover and the money - No checkmark. Oklahoma City lost to Dallas, 87-78. Words can't adequately express how pissed I was with that result. I bring this up not to vent, although it feels good to unleash this pent-up anger. But to point out in the NBA you can't hold grudges. If the value is there you must get back in the saddle and I see value coming right back with Oklahoma City in this matchup. Yes, the Thunder did play last night. Prior to their game against the Mavericks, though, the Thunder hadn't played since last Saturday. It's San Antonio who has the bigger fatigue issue. This is the Spurs' third game in four days and fourth in six days. The Spurs are playing through a short rotation, too, due to illness. Rudy and Derrick White are out. LaMarcus Aldrdige has been logging short minutes and is questionable for this game. Despite the frustrating non-cover against the Mavericks, the Thunder still have covered 28 of their last 40 road contests for 70 percent. The Spurs are 10-25 (28 percent) ATS the last 35 times as home chalk.
03-04-21	Oklahoma State +12 v. Baylor	Top	70-81	Win	100	7 h 0 m	Show
Oklahoma State is playing extremely well winning five in a row, including three straight versus ranked opponents during this span. The Cowboys shouldn't be nearly this high of a road 'dog against Baylor. The Bears could be in for a letdown after capturing their first conference title in 71 years. The Bears are still rounding into shape following a three-week February shutdown caused by COVID-19. This is just the Bears' fourth game since Feb. 2.
03-02-21	Wisconsin v. Purdue -1.5	Top	69-73	Win	100	17 h 25 m	Show
These two teams are going in opposite directions. Purdue is 9-3 in its last 12 games, riding a three-game win streak. Wisconsin is 3-6 in its past nine games failing to step up time after time when playing upper tier teams, which 23-ranked Purdue is. The Badgers' only February victories were against lower-tier Big Ten teams Penn State, Nebraska and Northwestern. I don't see the Badgers changing course by beating Purdue at Mackey Arena where the Boilermakers are 9-1 this season. Purdue's only home loss was to Michigan, the No. 2 ranked team in the country. Wisconsin is 5-4 on the road. The Badgers have failed to cover the last four times when meeting an above .500 opponent. The Badgers had a great chance to prove themselves versus worthy competition this past Saturday when they hosted No. 5 ranked Illinois. The Illini were missing their star guard, Ayo Dosumu. Yet Wisconsin still lost, 74-69. The Badgers are 0-6 now versus ranked foes in 2021.
03-01-21	Hornets v. Blazers -6.5	Top	111-123	Win	100	20 h 32 m	Show
The timing is terrible for Charlotte in this matchup. The Hornets pulled off a miracle victory on Sunday night nipping the Kings, 127-126. Charlotte trailed by eight points with 53 seconds left. But a combination of Hornets grit and the incompetent Kings choking allowed Charlotte to steal a victory. Even more remarkable is the Hornets pulled this win out despite not having Gordon Hayward nor Cody Zeller. Hayward is Charlotte's leading scorer while Zeller is their best big man. Both are injured. The Hornets' reward? They have to play again tonight at Portland, a place where they have lost the past 12 times going 2-10 ATS. This will be the Hornets' third road game in four days. Portland was idle this past weekend after losing, 102-93, on the road to the Lakers this past Friday. That was the Trail Blazers' fourth loss in a row. Portland's last three defeats, though, have all been on the road to excellent Western Conference teams - Lakers, Nuggets and Suns. The spot sets up perfectly for the Trail Blazers to stop their losing skid in grand style.
02-28-21	Michigan State +2.5 v. Maryland	Top	55-73	Loss	-105	11 h 20 m	Show
Here comes the Spartans. Perhaps given up for dead, Michigan State has emerged as a bubble team for the NCAA Tournament with three straight impressive victories. The Spartans have knocked off Indiana on the road, upset fifth-ranked Illinois at home and then upset Ohio State this past Thursday. The Spartans accomplished all of this during the past nine days. Maryland is playing well, too, with four consecutive victories. But the caliber of the Terps' opposition during this span isn't nearly as impressive. Maryland won three home games defeating Nebraska twice and Minnesota, which is horrible on the road. The Terps' other victory was against Rutgers in their last game. That was a week ago. I'm going to ride Tom Izzo and a hot Aaron Henry with all their momentum and adrenalin facing a Maryland squad that has faced weak competition lately and could be rusty.
02-27-21	Baylor v. Kansas +5	Top	58-71	Win	100	12 h 53 m	Show
Baylor was sailing along until getting hit by COVID-19, which caused a three-week stoppage for the Bears. Baylor finally returned to action against Iowa State this past Tuesday. The Bears had not previously played since Jan. 30. It showed. The Bears were lucky to have drawn Iowa State, the last-place team in the Big 12 Conference with an 0-14 league mark and 2-17 overall record. Baylor's shooting was off while its defense allowed Iowa State to hit 10 of 21 3-point shots. Baylor barely beat the Cyclones as 24-point home favorites winning, 77-72. No way can Baylor get away with that against Kansas. The Jayhawks are coming on as expected. They are 5-1 SU, 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games. During this six-game span, they have held their opponents to an average of 58 points in regulation. Kansas has tremendous motivation that goes beyond just revenge for a 77-69 road loss to the Bears back on Jan. 18. The Jayhawks made this matchup their Senior Night. This isn't just any ordinary Senior Night. The Jayhawks take tremendous pride in winning having never lost a Senior Night game since they started the tradition in 1984. Baylor doesn't have this urgency. The Bears only need to win one of their last four games to clinch the Big 12 regular-season championship. If they lose this game, they still have West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech left to achieve the feat.
02-26-21	Hawks v. Thunder +5.5	Top	109-118	Win	100	8 h 12 m	Show
The Hawks haven't won at Oklahoma City in five years. So I'm not buying the Hawks as this big of a road favorite. Atlanta not only has failed to cover the past three times it was favored, but lost all three of those games straight-up. Atlanta is in action for the third time in four days and fourth in six days. Not helping their fatigue rating is the Hawks also are short-handed. Not only is De'Andre Hunter, who was having a career season, out but Cam Reddish has missed the last two games with a sore Achilles. There isn't a hotter player in the NBA right now than the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 33.3 points and shooting 64 percent from the field during the past three games. The Thunder have a winning ATS mark as underdogs this season.
02-25-21	Northwestern v. Minnesota -4.5	Top	67-59	Loss	-107	19 h 56 m	Show
Northwestern has yet to win in 2021 and I certainly don't expect the Wildcats to end that streak at Minnesota. After starting 3-0 in the Big Ten, Northwestern has lost its last 13 games going 3-9-1 ATS. The Wildcats have lost eight of those matchups by double-digits. You have to go back to the 2016-17 season to find the last time a team opened 3-0 in conference and then lost that many in a row. Minnesota isn't a good road team. But the Gophers are extremely tough at home where they are 13-2 at Williams Arena. They have covered eight of their last 10 home contests. However, their last game was a 94-63 home defeat to fifth-ranked Illinois. The Gophers can't afford a slip-up here if they hope to make the NCAA Tournament. The oddsmaker has opened this line way too low even considering the Gophers have a pair of key injuries with guard Gabe Kalscheur out and center Liam Robbins, the top shot-blocker in the Big Ten, not likely to play due to a foot injury. However, the Gophers have battled injuries all season. Senior forward Brandon Johnson is solid and can supply some of Robbins' inside presence. Marcus Carr leads Minnesota in scoring at 19 points a game. Nobody else averages more than 12 points a game for the Gophers so the scoring is well distributed. Minnesota has beaten third-ranked Michigan, fourth-ranked Ohio State, ninth-ranked Iowa, Purdue and Michigan State all at home. Taking care of business against free-falling Northwestern shouldn't prove difficult for Minnesota especially being in must-win mode.
02-24-21	McNeese State +4.5 v. Southeastern Louisiana	Top	96-91	Win	100	15 h 24 m	Show
It has been a disappointing season for McNeese State. But the Cowboys can gain a measure of self-respect in this revenge spot against Southeast Louisiana, a team they lost to, 92-88, on Jan. 20. Studying the matchup, I firmly believe McNeese State has more edges not to mention huge motivation. So I see outstanding line value. The Cowboys average 82.2 points per game. That's 15 more points per game than Southeast Louisiana. The Cowboys rank 10th in the country in 3-point percentage at 39.8 percent. The Lions, by contrast, are one of the worst from beyond the arc ranking 328th in 3-point percentage. The Lions also give up 76.4 points while ranking 328th in defensive field goal percentage. The Cowboys give up an average of 71.7 points. Southeast Louisiana is vulnerable inside to big man Keyshawn Feazell and to the long-rang perimeter shooting depth of the Cowboys.
02-23-21	Oklahoma -9.5 v. Kansas State	Top	57-62	Loss	-110	15 h 19 m	Show
The teams met back on Jan. 19. It was no contest. Oklahoma won, 76-50. I see a similar-type result here. Kansas State is actually in a fat and happy mood having upset TCU on the road this past Saturday, 62-54, as 6 1/2-point 'dogs. That ended a 13-game losing streak for the Wildcats. Oklahoma isn't going to take the Wildcats so lightly now especially after falling behind Iowa State in the second half during their matchup this past Saturday. The Sooners ended up winning by 10, but they were coasting in the first half with a 21-point lead. The Sooners hold edges across the board against Kansas State, including outscoring the Wildcats by an average of nearly 14 points a game. The Wildcats don't have much of a home-court either. Prior to beating TCU on the road, they lost by 18 points at home to Kansas six days ago. The Wildcats are just 9-23 ATS in their past 32 home contests.
02-21-21	Wolves v. Knicks -2.5	Top	99-103	Win	100	17 h 17 m	Show
Defense. Situation. Coaching. Everything adds up for the Knicks in this matchup. So I'm really surprised the line opened so short. Maybe it's because there's a perception the Knicks are still a bottom-feeder like the Timberwolves. They aren't. The Knicks have made tremendous strides under former Timberwolves coach Tom Thibodeau. New York has become the best defensive team in the NBA ranking first in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Knicks surrender 12 fewer points per game than Minnesota. The Timberwolves are the worst team in the league with a 7-23 record. They rank in the bottom-six both offensively and defensively. They are minus their second-best player, D'Angelo Russell. The Timberwolves are short-handed in the backcourt with Russell and Jarrett Culver both out. Minnesota will be playing its fourth game in six days. The previous three games all were at home. The Timberwolves have lost 12 of their last 14 road contests. The Knicks have been idle since Wednesday when they lost as a road favorite against the Magic, 107-89. That loss kept New York from reaching .500. Thibodeau, a defensive guru, has had extra preparation time to figure out how to adequately replace injured center Mitchell Robinson. The Knicks have won and covered five of their last seven home games. Obviously Thibodeau would like to beat the franchise that fired him midway through the 2018-19 season after he had led them to the playoffs the previous season. Minnesota hadn't made the postseason in 13 seasons before Thibodeau came along. The Knicks shouldn't lack motivation and focus. The stumbling Timberwolves already are in rebuild mode again.
02-19-21	California Baptist +11 v. Grand Canyon	Top	61-71	Win	100	15 h 51 m	Show
I would be surprised to see California Baptist upset Grand Canyon straight-up. The Lancers are the 18th-highest scoring team in the country averaging 81.9 points a game. Grand Canyon is 12-3 compared to California Baptist's 10-7 mark. But the Antelopes' last eight victories have come against Bethesda and three of the worst teams in the Western Athletic Conference - Tarleton, Dixie State and New Mexico State. Oh, yes, the Antelopes haven't played since Jan. 30. So there's going to be a huge rust factor.
02-18-21	Iowa v. Wisconsin	Top	77-62	Loss	-108	14 h 60 m	Show
Wisconsin is 15-7. The Badgers win with defense. Only 20 teams surrender fewer points per game than the Badgers. Iowa is 15-6. The Hawkeyes win with offense. Only two teams score more points per game than Iowa. Look for defense to triumph over defense here. I like Wisconsin at home in this price range. The circumstances favor the Badgers, too. Iowa is getting too much respect following its 30-point dismantling of Michigan State this past Saturday. This is a down year for the Spartans. Now the Hawkeyes go on the road where they have failed to cover five of the last seven times. Wisconsin is mad after blowing a 12-point halftime lead to Michigan at home this past Sunday in a 67-59 loss to the third-ranked Wolverines. I don't see Wisconsin losing a second consecutive home contest. The Badgers are 11-3 in Madison this season. They also are 10-1-2 ATS the past 13 times following a loss.
02-13-21	UL - Lafayette -2.5 v. Louisiana-Monroe	Top	88-72	Win	100	14 h 38 m	Show
UL Monroe is the worst team in the Sun Belt Conference. The Warhawks are 5-15 and had lost 10 in a row until shocking Lafayette, 72-66, as 8 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. The loss dropped the Ragin' Cajuns to 13-7. Lafayette was flat and didn't shoot well making just 39 percent from the field when its season average is 44.7 percent. Monroe went all out playing three of their players at least 33 minutes. Russell Harrison and Koreem Ozier, the Warhawks' two leading scorers, played 36 and 34 minutes. So fatigue could factor against Monroe, which has a short bench, in this quick turnaround especially with travel involved as the venue changes. Only once in the last 10 seasons has Monroe swept Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns are the superior team with better depth and this is a monster short revenge spot for them. Look for Lafayette senior guard Cedric Russell to play much better. He's one of the best players in the Sun Belt averaging 18.6 points. Russell missed 10 of 15 shots from the floor against Monroe. The Ragin' Cajuns average 74.7 points. Monroe ranks 322nd in the nation in scoring at 63.7 points.
02-11-21	Pacers -3 v. Pistons	Top	111-95	Win	100	18 h 40 m	Show
Returning to Detroit after going 0-4 on their West Coast trip, the Pistons upset the Nets, 122-111, at home this past Tuesday. The Pistons are capable of pulling off a surprise like this. Just ask the Lakers. But by no means are the Pistons a good team. They have yet to win consecutive games this season. I don't see it happening today against the Pacers either. Indiana is at low ebb. The Pacers have dropped a season-high four games in a row. They have been held to their lowest scoring performances in each of their last two games. Brooklyn just defeated Indiana, 104-94, at home Wednesday night. Let's look, though, at who the Pacers have lost to during their skid. They were beaten by the Bucks, the Pelicans - who were playing their basketball of the season with four victories in a row until losing to the Bulls on Wednesday - the Jazz, who are the hottest team in the NBA, and the Nets of James Harden and Kyrie Irving. Now the Pacers are dropping way down in class meeting the Pistons. Indiana is playing without rest. However, the Pacers were idle this past Monday and Tuesday before losing to the Nets last night. So there isn't a fatigue factor. Indiana also is 4-1 ATS the last five times on the second of back-to-back games. The Pacers have excelled in this spot going 11-3-1 ATS the past 15 times as a road favorite.
02-10-21	Bucks v. Suns +4.5	Top	124-125	Win	100	13 h 31 m	Show
The Suns showed their improvement last season going unbeaten in the Orlando bubble. The lone team to do that during the rebooted season. Phoenix's improvement has carried into this season. The Suns are 14-9 and have a real shot to make the playoffs for the first time since 2010. Phoenix has the fourth-ranked defense in the league, emerging superstar Devin Booker and underrated team depth. This is a rare nationally televised (ESPN) home game for the Suns, who will be allowing around 1,500 fans into their arena. The Suns have covered eight of the last 10 times they've been underdogs. This will be Booker's sixth game back following a hamstring injury. He's back in top form both scoring and dishing off. The Suns obviously are going to be sky-high for this matchup. Milwaukee is riding a season-best five-game win streak. This handicap isn't a fade on the Bucks. It's far more about the Suns. But Milwaukee has to be a little fat and happy after dismantling the Nuggets, 125-112, at Denver this past Monday to go 3-0 on its current six-game road swing. This also marks the Bucks' fourth game in six days. I'm liking the Suns to cover, if not win, with the expectation they won't have Chris Paul. He missed the Suns' last game, a 119-113 home win against the Cavaliers, this past Monday with a hamstring injury. E'Twaun Moore and Booker stepped up nicely in Paul's absence. The Bucks also are likely to be missing their best point guard with Jrue Holiday in COVID-19 protocol. Word is that Holiday has tested positive for COVID-19. Phoenix is 6-1 in its last seven games and has defeated the Bucks in three of the past four meetings.
02-08-21	Cavs +7.5 v. Suns	Top	113-119	Win	100	10 h 29 m	Show
It's not so much who you play, but when you play them. That's a major handicap when dealing with the NBA regular season. It's a reason why I'm backing the underdog Cavaliers, who are 1-5 in their last six games and coming off three blowout home losses while the Suns are 5-1 in their last six games. Phoenix has opened its current seven-game homestand with victories against the Pistons and Celtics on Sunday. Following this game, the Suns host the Bucks on Wednesday and then 76ers on Saturday. The Suns are fat and happy right now with a pair of far more challenging and marquee matchups on deck. Cleveland, though, is improved. The Cavaliers have talent with Andre Drummond and an underrated backcourt of Collin Sexton and Darius Garland. Yes, the Cavs were blown out at home in their last three games. Two of those losses came to the Bucks and the other came against the Clippers, who had both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in their lineup. Those are "A" level opponents. Phoenix isn't in that class. The Cavaliers want to begin again and this is their chance, the start of a five-game West Coast trip. Cleveland ranks ninth defensively, but 29th in scoring averaging 103.6. The Suns, however, are averaging only 105.5 points in regulation during their past seven games. That's fewer than two points more per game than Cleveland. Phoenix also carries a fatigue rating. This is the Suns' fourth game in six days and second in two days.
02-08-21	Nebraska v. Minnesota -11.5	Top	61-79	Win	100	16 h 26 m	Show
Nebraska has lost 23 straight Big Ten Conference games. Don't expect that streak to end here. Not at Minnesota. The Cornhuskers played for the first time since Jan. 10 because of COVID issues this past Saturday and lost, 66-56, at Michigan State. The obviously rusty Cornhuskers shot just 36.2 percent from the floor and 17.6 percent from 3-point territory. Minnesota is 0-6 on the road, but 11-1 at home. The Gophers have covered six of their last seven home contests. One of their home victories was 81-56 against Michigan State, which just defeated Nebraska.
02-05-21	California Baptist +10.5 v. New Mexico State	Top	85-75	Win	100	17 h 17 m	Show
This line is way off in my view. New Mexico State will be fortunate to beat Cal-Baptiste, which has a better record than the Lobos and far more firepower. Yes, New Mexico State is home and getting close to full strength. But the Lobos are one of the weaker teams in the Western Athletic Conference seeking their first league win. Their home games are being played in a high school gym in El Paso with no spectators allowed. El Paso is 46 miles from Las Cruces, which is where New Mexico State is located. So the Lobos really don't have a home-court edge. Cal-Baptiste leagues the WAC in scoring at 83.5 points. The Lancers have two excellent outside shooters in Ty Rowell and Reed Nottage. They've helped the Lancers rank eighth in the nation in 3-point shooting at 39.9 percent. The Lancers do a good job moving the ball around, too, ranking No. 2 in the country in assist percentage on made field goals and they have a very good rim protector in 6-foot-11 Gorjok Gak. He averages nearly 11 rebounds and two blocks per game, while shooting better than 61 percent from the floor. New Mexico State has been held to fewer than 64 points in three of its last four games. The Lancers had won five in a row until suffering a 79-75 home upset loss to Dixie State this past Saturday. I expect Cal-Baptiste to bounce back in strong fashion. The Lancers haven't had two straight non-covers all season. They also have covered 13 of their last 17 road games.
02-04-21	Colorado State v. Wyoming +8.5	Top	74-72	Win	100	17 h 45 m	Show
This has been a huge underdog series with the favorite being just 1-8-1 ATS during the past 10 meetings. I see that trend continuing here. Wyoming averages more points than Colorado State and the Rams defense has shown signs of slippage lately giving up 76 or more points in three of their last four games. The Cowboys were impressive in their last two games defeating Nevada twice, winning by five and seven points.
02-03-21	Fordham v. Massachusetts -13	Top	54-60	Loss	-105	15 h 13 m	Show
Fordham was the preseason pick to finish as the worst team in the Atlantic 10. The Rams haven't disappointed. They are 1-8 and rank fourth-from-the-bottom in scoring nation-wide averaging 51.2 points. UMass, which is 5-4, averages nearly 30 more points per game than the Rams. The Minutemen have a huge talent edge with one of the top players in the conference, Tre Mitchell. The teams met at Fordham on Jan. 17 and UMass won handily, 65-49. Now the Minutemen catch Fordham at home where they are 20-6-1 ATS the past 27 times. So UMass should romp again. It's not just having destroyed Fordham earlier on the road either. Compare how these teams fared against LaSalle. UMass beat the Explorers twice by 19 and 16 points, respectively. Fordham lost to LaSalle by 27 points.
02-02-21	USC -2 v. Stanford	Top	72-66	Win	100	18 h 8 m	Show
Stanford has the Pac-12's leading scorer, Oscar da Silva. But USC has star 7-foot center Evan Mobley and a much stronger bench. This could factor since the Cardinal have been without three starters - Daejon Davis, Bryce Willis and Ziaire Williams - during the past three games. Those are their No. 2, 4 and 5 scoring leaders. Mobley leads the Pac-12 in rebounding and blocked shots. He's a probable top-three NBA draft pick if he decides to leave USC at the end of the season. A key for the Trojans is that they've been able to get in some much needed practice time and rest having played only twice since Jan. 20. Their last game was this past Thursday when they beat Oregon State, 75-62, as 12 1/2-point home favorites. USC should be primed as it goes on the road. The Trojans have covered nine of their last 12 away matchups.
01-31-21	Cavs -3 v. Wolves	Top	104-109	Loss	-114	18 h 31 m	Show
The Timberwolves have shown they can't function without their best player, Karl-Anthony Towns. He's going to miss his eighth straight game here due to COVID-19 protocols. Minnesota is 2-14 in its last 16 games and 2-6 ATS in its past eight contests. There's a chance the Timberwolves could be minus their second-best player, D'Angelo Russell, too. He's been dealing with a bruised quad. Russell played in the Timberwolves' 118-94 home loss to the 76ers, but shot just 3-of-11 from the floor in 25 minutes. Not only are the Timberwolves a fade in their present state, but the buy sign is on the Cavaliers following their 102-81 loss to the Knicks this past Friday. That was the Cavaliers' second humiliating road loss in a row. They were beaten by 38 points by the Celtics in their previous away game one week ago. The Cavaliers want to make a road statement here. They have the perfect patsy in which to make that statement. It helps, too, the Cavaliers finally are at full strength with Darius Garland and Larry Nance Jr. back in the lineup. Andre Drummond leads the NBA in rebounding and Collin Sexton is the league's 16th-leading scorer averaging 24.6 points. The Cavaliers have underrated talent. Cleveland has covered during five of its last six visits to Minnesota.
01-30-21	Pistons v. Warriors -5.5	Top	91-118	Win	100	19 h 30 m	Show
The Warriors beat the Pistons in Detroit, 116-106, back on Dec. 29 achieving the victory despite not having Draymond Green, their second-best player. Golden State has improved since then with Green back in the lineup going 8-7 since defeating Detroit. The Pistons couldn't stop Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins, who combined for 58 points in the win. Curry leads the NBA in 3-pointers. The Pistons rank 26th in 3-point defense. So Curry and Wiggins could be in line for big games again. Detroit upset both the 76ers and Lakers this week. Both victories came at home. The Pistons caught the 76ers minus Joel Embiid and the Lakers without Anthony Davis. This isn't to downplay the Pistons' upset wins. They were impressive. The 107-92 smashing of the Lakers came just two days ago. I doubt the Pistons play nearly that well in this spot following that hugely-satisfying home win. Detroit has lost its past three road games, including its last one to the Cavaliers, 122-107, this past Wednesday. This marks Detroit's fourth game in six days. The Warriors should be motivated after a flat performance in a 114-93 road loss to the Suns this past Thursday. Golden State has covered the past five times hosting an opponent that has a losing road record.
01-27-21	Utah State -6 v. UNLV	Top	83-74	Win	100	17 h 2 m	Show
Utah State has the second-best league record in the Mountain West Conference at 9-2. The Aggies have covered nine of their past 11 games. But one of those losses and non-covers occurred two days ago against UNLV. The Aggies didn't play well and lost, 59-56, as six-point road favorites to the Rebels. Now Utah State has rapid revenge. UNLV has a short bench. The Rebels primarily use just six players. They had four players log 34 minutes or more in their Monday victory against Utah State. The Aggies should dominate the boards with 7-footer Neemius Queta, one of the best defensive centers in the country. Utah State ranks 15th in the country in defense holding foes to 61 points a game. Neither team shot well on Monday. But the Aggies' numbers were stunningly bad - 33 percent from the floor and just 5-of-22 from 3-point range. UNLV, by contrast, hit 13 of 30 3-pointers. Expect Utah State to play much better.
01-24-21	Bucs +4 v. Packers	Top	31-26	Win	100	132 h 24 m	Show
If there is one NFC team that matches up well to Green Bay and can beat the Packers it's the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay proved that back in Week 6 when it took apart the Packers, 38-10. The Buccaneers shut out the Packers for the final three quarters. It was Green Bay's worst game of the season by far. So what's happened since then? The Packers' defense has improved and Aaron Rodgers put that game behind him to have one of the most magnificent seasons in NFL history. The Packers have the league's No. 1 scoring offense, a good defense and home-field where the weather forecast is for temperatures in the 20s and around a 40 percent chance of snow. But the Buccaneers also have improved. They, too, are peaking at the right time. Tom Brady is in sync with his new offense and receivers. Davonte Adams gives Rodgers the best receiver on the field. But Brady has the four next best receivers with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski. Shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander can only lock up on one of Tampa Bay's trio of excellent wideouts. Tampa Bay has won six in a row. The Bucs haven't lost by more than a field goal in their last nine games. Cold January weather doesn't bother Brady. He's certainly experienced it. Tampa Bay is averaging 36.6 points in its last five games. The Buccaneers put up 30 and 31 points in their playoff victories against two outstanding defensive teams, Washington and New Orleans. Green Bay's defense had just 11 interceptions. The Buccaneers picked off Drew Brees three times last Sunday. The Buccaneers led the NFL in run defense holding foes to 80.6 rushing yards per game, 10 yards fewer than the NFL's second-best run defense, and now they could get back star nose tackle Vita Vea from injured reserve. He's expected to practice this week. The Packers couldn't run on Tampa Bay in their earlier meeting. Aaron Jones was held to 15 yards on 10 carries. Inside linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David also make this a tough game for Green Bay. Those two not only can pressure the quarterback, but they are outstanding in pass coverage. They were dominant in Tampa Bay's victory against the Packers. Not to take anything away from Green Bay's smashing win against the Rams last week, but Aaron Donald only was about 50 percent because of a rib injury. The Packers didn't even need to double team him. The Packers have proven vulnerable to power run teams. The 49ers exploited that weakness in the NFC title game last season and the Colts had that going for them in their victory against the Packers this season. Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette give the Buccaneers a pair of power runners and provide Brady with needed balance. While the Buccaneers have some of the best linebackers in the NFL, the Packers' linebackers are composed of free agents and middle-to-late round draft picks. Then there are special teams. Thus far the Packers have been able to cover up their weak punt and punt return teams. Green Bay ranks 30th in net punt average and 31st in punt returns. They also have a bad long snapper. These are areas that could bite the Packers now that they are playing their toughest opponents.
01-19-21	Seton Hall +10 v. Villanova	Top	74-76	Win	100	14 h 56 m	Show
Seton Hall hasn't played since defeating DePaul 10 days ago. But that's nothing compared to Villanova. The Wildcats haven't seen action in 27 days due to COVID-19. Villanova only was able to start practicing a few days ago and then for a limited time. They have several players questionable for this game, including fourth-leading scorer, guard Caleb Daniels. It would be somewhat surprising if the Wildcats weren't at least somewhat rusty. The Pirates have been turning it up winning eight of their last 10 games. They have the frontcourt to hang against Villanova with Sandro Mamukelashvili and Tyrese Samuel. Seton Hall has proven itself on the road posting upset wins against Penn State, Marquette and Xavier. Villanova has only covered one of its last eight home games.
01-17-21	Bucs v. Saints -3	Top	30-20	Loss	-110	127 h 57 m	Show
I've never bought into that cliche of it's tough to beat a team three times in a season. New Orleans beat Tampa Bay, 34-20, opening week and defeated the Buccaneers far worse in Tampa, 38-3, in Week 9 when Tom Brady was more in sync with his new team. Brady had a 2-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those losses to the Saints. Truth be told, Brady hasn't been that sharp when taking on strong defenses such as New Orleans. The Saints could have the hottest defense during the second half of the season. They've held seven of their last 10 foes to 16 points or fewer. New Orleans defense only had to be on the field for 21 minutes against the Bears last week. I like the Saints' defensive line, perhaps the deepest in the league, to win the battle of the trenches especially with the Buccaneers losing guard Alex Cappa to an ankle injury. Brady doesn't have the mobility to escape a strong pass rush, which the Saints can generate without blitzes. Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU and ATS against playoff teams. The Saints are the steadier team with a highly-efficient offense and the best playmaker on the field in Alvin Kamara. Drew Brees has his top wideouts healthy again, including Michael Thomas. New Orleans has home-field, far more postseason experience than Tampa Bay and the built-in confidence of two previous lopsided victories.
01-15-21	Bowling Green +4.5 v. Buffalo	Top	76-69	Win	100	13 h 42 m	Show
I'm surprised the line is this high as Bowling Green was the preseason pick to win the Mid-American Conference this season. I think the oddsmaker is underrating the Falcons based on them coming off an 88-64 home loss to Ball State this past Tuesday and Buffalo having defeated Bowling Green eight of the last nine times at home. Spectators haven't been allowed in Buffalo home games this season so that knocks down some of the Bulls' home-court edge. Bowling Green should be in bounce back mode. The Falcons had won their first five MAC games. They probably have the conference's top player, senior guard Justin Turner. He scored 33 points when Bowling Green defeated Buffalo, 86-78, back on Dec. 6.
01-13-21	Tulsa +4.5 v. Wichita State	Top	53-72	Loss	-110	15 h 50 m	Show
Wichita State defeated Tulsa, 69-65, as a short road underdog a month ago. Tulsa wasn't playing that well back in mid-December breaking in new players and coming off a 10-day layoff caused by COVID-19. Tulsa had only one day of practice before that game and was out of sync. That was back then. Since that defeat to Wichita State, the Golden Hurricane have won six in a row covering all five of their lined games during this span. Tulsa has defeated four opponents picked to finish above them in the American Athletic Conference preseason poll. Tulsa is 3-0 in road games and has had a week to rest and prepare for this revenge matchup after its scheduled home game this past Saturday against Central Florida was postponed because of COVID issues on the UCF team. The Golden Hurricane have caused scoring problems for foes with their matchup zone defense. Only 13 teams give up fewer points per game than Tulsa, which also ranks fourth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. Wichita State is not a good shooting team. The Shockers rank 290th in field goal percentage at 40.8 percent and are 224th in free throw percentage at 68.5 percent.
01-12-21	Cal-Riverside +15 v. USC	Top	62-67	Win	100	13 h 9 m	Show
Cal-Riverside is good enough to hang in against USC especially with the Trojans banged-up in the backcourt and in a flat spot. USC has played four straight Pac-12 games. This is its only remaining non-league regular season game. The Trojans just returned home after a satisfying Arizona trip beating Arizona this past Thursday and Arizona State this past Saturday. Letting down against a Big West Conference team is a real possibility for USC. Riverside has decent size and will play slow. The Highlanders should have plenty of energy and motivation stepping up in class. This is just their third game since Dec. 10. Riverside surrendered 88 points to Hawaii this past Friday. However, that was the Highlanders' first game in nearly a month. If you discount that matchup, the Highlanders are giving up an average of 57.8 points in their other five games. They own a 57-42 victory over Washington, a Pac-12 team, on a neutral court.
01-12-21	Jazz v. Cavs +11	Top	117-87	Loss	-110	10 h 16 m	Show
Anytime you have Yogi Ferrell drawing minutes you know it's either a YMCA game, or an NBA team that has a serious injury situation and needs a body. Such is the case with the Cavaliers. But this spot sets up well for Cleveland so I'm taking double-digits with the home 'dog Cavaliers. Utah is playing its sixth road game in 10 days. The Jazz are 3-2 on their trip and off double-digit wins against the Bucks and Pistons. They conclude their road swing on Wednesday against the Wizards. The Jazz knows the Cavaliers are short-handed. This is a letdown and rest stop for them. Cleveland is minus Kevin Love, Dante Exum, Darius Garland and Kevin Porter. The Cavaliers also were minus Collin Sexton for a third straight game after he was a late scratch in Monday's 101-91 home loss to Memphis. It's a big plus if Sexton, an underrated guard having a tremendous season averaging 25.1 points, can play. But if he can't, I still like Cleveland to cover. The Cavaliers are playing at a snail's pace. They have an excellent big man, Andre Drummond, to execute this half-court style and frustrate Utah. Drummond gets some help on the frontcourt from Larry Nance Jr. An ugly, low-scoring matchup, which this game figures to be, is a plus for such a large-sized underdog.
01-11-21	Ohio State v. Alabama -8	Top	24-52	Win	100	129 h 9 m	Show
Ohio State has its worst defense of recent years especially in the secondary. Alabama has its most explosive offense ever, which is saying a lot. This combination is enough for the Crimson Tide to defeat the Buckeyes by double-digits and cover the spread. Yes, the Buckeyes have an explosive offense, too. I would take Justin Fields over Alabama QB Mac Jones. The Crimson Tide's defense doesn't have as many dominant players as in the past few years, but their defense still is more talented than Clemson's in the line and secondary. So they are going to get some stops against Ohio State. I don't see Ohio State slowing down Alabama at all. Jones, running back Najee Harris and wide receiver DeVonta Smith were all Heisman Trophy finalists with Smith capturing the award. Smith caught 105 passes for 1,641 yards and 20 TD's. I've watched Alabama football since the days of Joe Namath being under center and I've never seen a Crimson Tide wide receiver have the season Smith had. Oh, yes, Alabama also has the best offensive line in college football even without injured stud center Landon Dickerson. This group is in the discussion for being the greatest O-line in Alabama history. Ohio State ranked just 56th in fewest yards per play and that was playing an easier schedule than Alabama. Just last year the Buckeyes ranked first in that category showing what a drop their defense has experienced this season.
01-10-21	Bears v. Saints -9.5	Top	9-21	Win	100	127 h 14 m	Show
The Bears couldn't do it at home last Sunday against the Packers.They weren't good enough. They aren't good enough to stay close either to the Saints. Chicago made the playoffs only because the league allowed one extra wild card berth this season. The Bears are who they are - an 8-8 team with a single victory against a playoff team. That was by one point against the Buccaneers when they hosted Tampa Bay in Week 5 on Thursday night. The Buccaneers weren't fully in sync then and 43-year-old Tom Brady had to play on a short week. Chicago's defense has regressed to just being slightly above average at best. I'm far from sold on the Bears' offense. Mitchell Trubisky was able to put up excellent numbers during the last quarter of the season because his opponents were the Lions, Texans, Vikings and Jaguars. Those are all bottom-six defenses. The Bears went 2-4 in their North Division. They were lucky to split with the Vikings and Lions, both of whom had terrible seasons. New Orleans swept its South Division, which was more competitive top-to-bottom than the NFC North. The Saints don't have any glaring weaknesses. They scored the fifth-most points and gave up the fifth-fewest points. The Saints have the best shot of any team in the NFC to take down the Packers and capture the NFC Conference championship. The Saints caught a huge break that this game is on Sunday. That extra day means Alvin Kamara will be eligible if he passes COVID protocols. The Saints also expect to get back Michael Thomas. He's an elite wide receiver. New Orleans still averaged 31.8 points in nine games without Thomas. I believe this will be Drew Brees' final season. The Saints really want to win the Super Bowl to close out his era. New Orleans is going to be highly motivated and likely to pour it on the overmatched Bears because of previous postseason failures that were caused in heart-breaking fashion. The Bears are this far on house money. It's house money they didn't earn, or deserve. Deep inside they know that after their Week 17 failure against the Packers. The Bears lack the quarterback, confidence and elite defense to hang with New Orleans.
01-09-21	Hawks -4 v. Hornets	Top	105-113	Loss	-110	15 h 28 m	Show
We're going to find out just how good Hawks coach Lloyd Pierce is with this game. These two teams just met this past Wednesday. The Hornets surprised the Hawks winning as six-point road 'dogs, 102-94. Trae Young had a bad game missing seven of nine shots from the floor and scoring only seven points, which is nearly 19 points below his season average. On the flip side, Gordon Hayward went off for a career-best 44 points. From a situational perspective, this game sets up well for the Hawks. They have been idle for the past two days since that loss to the Hornets. The Hawks have short revenge and are in stop-the-pain mode trying to halt a three-game losing streak after opening the season 4-1. Charlotte just got finished playing its fourth road game in six days, upsetting the Pelicans, 118-110, on Friday night. This will be the Hornets' first home game in eight days, so that's a bad spot for them from a concentration level. It's also the Hornets' sixth game in nine days so Charlotte carries a huge negative fatigue factor. Young is the most talented player on the court. John Collins the best big man. De'Andre Hunter is an underrated player. Atlanta has more firepower than Charlotte. Pierce has all these factors in his favor, but he has to show the coaching acumen to properly prepare the Hawks for what the Hornets did right in the earlier meeting two days ago, which was press and effectively switch defenses. Hayward is a nice complimentary player. Emphasize the word complimentary. There's no way he should score 44 points against any self-respecting NBA team. So the Hawks obviously have to play better defense on him. The oddsmaker believes the Hawks are the superior team making them road chalk. I do, too, but they have to prove it, especially the coach. I believe they will.
01-08-21	Suns v. Pistons +7.5	Top	105-110	Win	100	7 h 20 m	Show
Now that the line has gotten past 7 at some sportsbooks and word has come out that Derrick Rose is OK to play, I'm going to get involved with the home underdog Pistons. Phoenix has continued to play well this season after going unbeaten in the Orlando bubble to finish last season. The Suns are 6-2. The timing isn't the best for Phoenix in this matchup, though. The Suns just defeated the Raptors, 123-115, at home two days ago. They play at Indiana on Saturday. That's a more challenging game for them so they don't want to leave everything on the floor in this matchup. But can the 1-7 Pistons hold up their end and make this a close game? I believe they can. It's a stop-the-pain game for Detroit, which is on a three-game losing streak and just suffered a 130-115 loss to the Bucks in a game where Milwaukee scored 82 first-half points. Rose went out in the second quarter after banging his knee. He didn't return. But he is expected to play today as the injury was not serious. This is important not only because Rose still remains an effective player averaging 15.3 points and 5.4 assists in around 24 minutes per game, but also because Detroit's starting point guard, rookie Killian Hayes, is out after suffering a torn labrum in his right hip. The Pistons would be thin and inexperienced in the backcourt without Rose. The Suns aren't a team to back when laying a large number. Phoenix ranks only 20th in scoring averaging 109.8 points per game. Detroit, by contrast, actually averages more points a game at 111.5. The Pistons have been rough on the Suns, too, winning both games last season and covering 13 of the last 16 at home versus Phoenix.
01-08-21	Central Connecticut State v. Bryant -12.5	Top	64-76	Loss	-108	6 h 46 m	Show
Bryant buried Central Connecticut State on Thursday, 93-68. That score wasn't some fluke. Bryant is far superior. This class difference showed up on the boards and on the scoreboard. The Bulldogs put up 93 points, which is no big deal. They average 92.3 points per game, which is third-best in the nation. They have by far the best record in the Northeast Conference at 8-2, going 8-1 ATEarn a tidy profit before even sitting down for Friday dinner courtesy of basketball guru Stephen Nover, who was 2-0 on his Thursday college basketball plays pushing his three-year CBB mark to 146-105-5! Stephen has feasted on mispriced small conference matchups just like this one. This is his strongest small conference early-game play this season - and it's specially discounted! So take advantage and score a big reward. S in their lined games. CCS is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine tries as an underdog. The Blue Devils average 18 fewer points per game than Bryant.
01-06-21	Bulls v. Kings -6.5	Top	124-128	Loss	-110	18 h 11 m	Show
Despite missing four players, including Lauri Markkanen, because of COVID reasons the Bulls upset the Trail Blazers, 111-108, as 9 1/2-point road 'dogs Tuesday night. Chicago had lost seven in a row to Portland. It was a tremendous gutty win for the Bulls. Chicago came from 20 points down to pull out the win. But that highly-satisfying victory sets up the Bulls for failure today. Chicago is 8-20 ATS following a straight-up victory. The Bulls have a much more high profile opponent after this game against Sacramento. Chicago meets the world champion Lakers on Friday. The Kings aren't going to lack motivation, nor take the Bulls lightly. After opening 3-1 with home victories against the Nuggets and Suns, the Kings concluded an 0-3 road trip with an embarrassing 137-106 loss to Golden State this past Monday. There's a chance the Kings get back potential rookie of the year candidate Tyrese Haliburton for this game. The No. 12 overall pick in the draft, Haliburton has put up excellent across-the-board numbers for the Kings while shooting 52.9 percent from the floor. He's missed the last two games with a wrist injury. I like the Kings even if Haliburton can't play. Sacramento is 10-4-1 ATS in its past 15 home contests. The Bulls, in addition to their letdown factor, carry a heavy fatigue rating and are dealing with a short bench due to COVID. This will be their fifth game in seven days, all at a different location.
01-05-21	Lakers v. Grizzlies +9	Top	94-92	Win	100	17 h 48 m	Show
The Grizzlies' injury list is a long one - Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Justice Winslow and John Konchar. Morant and Jackson are the Grizzlies' two best players. So why get involved with the Grizzlies? Situation. It sets up well for Memphis plus the Grizzlies are getting reinforcements. This is the Lakers' fourth road game in seven days. The Lakers have won the three previous ones, including defeating the Grizzlies, 108-94, two days ago. The Lakers return to LA following this matchup to host the Spurs on Thursday. A letdown, lack of concentration and this being a rest stop all work against the Lakers in this spot. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, have short home revenge. Memphis was hanging in with LA this past Sunday trailing by only two points entering the fourth quarter before falling apart. The Lakers shot 19 free throws to the Grizzlies' eight in that game. So there could be an officiating adjustment to that free throw disparity in this game. Memphis isn't some bottom-feeder even without Morant and Jackson. The Grizzlies nearly made the postseason in the highly competitive Western Conference last season falling to Portland by four points in the play-in game. Jonas Valanciunas is a quality big man and Kyle Anderson is playing well. Key reserve De'Anthony Melton is available now after getting clearance from COVID-19 protocols. The Grizzlies also get Grayson Allen back from an ankle injury and signed Tim Frazier. Allen and Frazier provide needed backcourt depth.
01-05-21	Florida +2.5 v. Alabama	Top	71-86	Loss	-101	13 h 13 m	Show
The last time I got involved in a Florida basketball game was taking 3 points with the Gators on the road against Florida State back on Dec. 12. Things looked good for Florida early. The Gators were leading the Seminoles, 11-3, when Florida State called a time-out. It was at that point Keyontae Johnson, the Gators' star player and preseason pick for SEC Player of the Year honors, collapsed on the court. The Gators obviously were shaken as Johnson was taken to the hospital. They went on to lose, 83-71. Johnson was hospitalized for 10 days. Florida postponed its next four games. Johnson is back with the Gators, although he's not playing. He's helping coach the team. The Gators have played twice since Johnson's collapse beating Vanderbilt, 90-72, on the road and nipped LSU, 83-79, at home this past Saturday. So Florida knows first-hand about adversity this season. The Gators have regained their focus. They can beat Alabama on the road. The Crimson Tide are coming off a huge road win against seventh-ranked Tennessee from this past Saturday night. Alabama beat Tennessee, 71-63, as 10 1/2-point 'dogs. It was the Crimson Tide's first road victory versus a top-10 team in 16 years. So there could be a letdown factor for Alabama even though this is an important SEC battle.
01-04-21	Celtics v. Raptors -3.5	Top	126-114	Loss	-111	9 h 33 m	Show
Both teams have many kinks to work out during this early part of the season. But Toronto has playoff revenge after being eliminated by Boston in the second round of the playoffs. The Raptors are getting more used to their temporary Tampa home and draw the Celtics in a brutal situational spot. This is the Celtics' second consecutive game and fifth in seven days. Toronto still is playing strong defense ranking No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage. Nick Nurse is one of the few coaches who is at the level of Brad Stevens.
01-03-21	Seahawks -6.5 v. 49ers	Top	26-23	Loss	-112	33 h 11 m	Show
Look, I greatly respect the coaching staff of the 49ers especially Kyle Shanahan and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. But the 49ers are out of gas both physically and mentally. It's difficult to keep a team together that misses the playoffs after reaching the Super Bowl the previous season and has the longest injury list in the league. San Francisco is 2-6 in its last eight games with every loss during this span coming by at least eight points. Seattle is coming on especially its defense, which has surrendered the fewest points in the league during the last seven weeks. The Seahawks draw third-string QB C.J. Beathard, who is 2-14 in his 16 NFL appearances. He has a career mark of 17 touchdowns and 23 turnovers while being sacked 43 times. Seattle has the most sacks in the NFL since Week 8. Superstar safety Jamal Adams already has set a single season sack mark for a safety. Aside from tight end George Kittle, Beathard doesn't have his top receiving weapons with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel ruled out. San Francisco is missing some of its top offensive linemen, too, including left tackle Trent Williams. The 49ers' pop-gun, conservative ground-based attack isn't going to produce many points and will be helpless if the Seahawks jump to a big lead, which I anticipate. Seattle has held its past five foes to an average of 12.2 points. Defensively the 49ers not only are missing multiple linemen - as they have all season - but have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. Cornerbacks K'Waun Williams and spiritual leader and warrior Richard Sherman are out. Emmanuel Mosely is questionable. Russell Wilson fired 4 TD passes in the Seahawks' 37-27 Week 8 victory against San Francisco. The Seahawks still have an outside shot at earning the NFC's top seed. So they aren't going to lack incentive.
01-02-21	Cavs +7 v. Hawks	Top	96-91	Win	100	11 h 31 m	Show
The Hawks look improved. But so do the 3-2 Cavaliers, who catch the Hawks in a letdown spot and carrying a high fatigue rating. Atlanta is coming off a satisfying 114-96 revenge victory against the Nets on the road Friday night. Brooklyn had nipped the Hawks in a wild 145-141 game on Wednesday in which Atlanta blew a late lead. So now the Hawks come home to Atlanta where they find the Cavaliers waiting for them. Cleveland should have its intensity up after consecutive losses to the Knicks and Pacers on Thursday. The Cavaliers had opened with three straight victories before these two setbacks. That was their best start in five years. Both defeats are humbling to the Cavaliers, who fell 95-86 to the Knicks and 119-99 to Indiana. I'm looking for Cleveland to bounce back in this spot. The Cavaliers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games going back to last season and also have covered seven of the past 10 times versus the Hawks in Atlanta. The Hawks are 3-9 ATS the last 12 times when playing without rest. This is their third game in four days and fourth in six days. The Hawks could be missing a pair of veterans. Rajon Rondo missed last night's game with a sore knee and sharpshooter Danilo Gallinari has been out with an ankle injury. Keep an eye on Hawks star Trae Young, who has been dealing with a sore calf.
01-01-21	Celtics v. Pistons +10	Top	93-96	Win	100	9 h 15 m	Show
Even with the regular season reduced from 82 to 72 games, elite teams such as Boston seek rest stops on its schedule. One such rest spot is today's game at Detroit against the 0-4 Pistons. The Celtics are coming off consecutive victories beating the Pacers on the road Tuesday and cruising past the short-handed Grizzlies at home on Wednesday. This marks the Celtics' fourth game in six days. The Pistons, by contrast, have been idle the past two days having last played on Tuesday. The Pistons aren't likely to have Blake Griffin, who is in the league's concussion protocol. Rookie point guard Killian Hayes probably is out, too. I'd rather have Hayes out since he's a work-in-progress for the rebuilding Pistons. This might mean giving more minutes to veteran Derrick Rose. It's a bonus if Griffin plays because I like the Pistons in this spot regardless if Griffin plays or sits. The Pistons have hung around in their games. They should have defeated the improved Cavaliers blowing a late lead and losing in overtime. Dwane Casey is a solid coach and the Pistons have been getting strong play from a couple of unsung players, Jerami Grant and Josh Jackson. Boston isn't motivated to run up a score since the teams play again on Sunday and the Celtics don't want to provide the Pistons with any extra motivation.
12-31-20	Knicks v. Raptors -9	Top	83-100	Win	100	17 h 47 m	Show
At 0-3, the Raptors are approaching this matchup with a great deal of urgency. I expect a circle-the-wagons type of performance from Toronto. If opponents treat the Knicks seriously then New York is in trouble. The Raptors won't be taking the 2-2 Knicks lightly even though they've defeated New York eight straight times. The Knicks have shown early improvement under Tom Thibodeau. They may not be quite the laughing stock of the past few seasons, but they still are a bottom-feeder. Toronto led the 76ers by 14 points in the second half during its last game two days ago. But the Raptors lost. The last time Toronto opened so poorly was 15 years ago. The Knicks's bench is extremely banged-up especially in the backcourt. Austin Rivers may be able to return from a groin injury that has kept him out, but Frank Ntiliikna and Dennis Smith are sidelined. Shooting guard Alec Burks, the Knicks' second-leading scorer, is questionable with an ankle injury.
12-31-20	West Virginia -6.5 v. Army	Top	24-21	Loss	-116	23 h 39 m	Show
Army received it's wish to play in a bowl game. Sometimes it's not good, though, to get what you wish. The Black Knights draw West Virginia in the Liberty Bowl. The Mountaineers are a bad fit for Army. The Black Knights had an outstanding season going 9-2, including highly-satisfying victories against rivals Navy and Air Force. But West Virginia is the wrong bowl opponent for them. Army is entirely dependent on running the ball averaging just 36 yards passing a game. Only four teams allowed fewer yards per game than West Virginia. The Mountaineers have a very stout run defense allowing 3.8 yards per rush. They have a pair of NFL defensive line draft prospects in the Stills brothers, Darius and Dante. The Black Knights' glittering 9-2 record doesn't look so shiny on closer examination as three of their victories were against FCS foes Abilene Christian, Citadel and Mercer. Another was against 0-10 Louisiana Monroe. They nipped Georgia Southern by one point. Army's losses came against Cincinnati, 24-10, and to Tulane, 38-12. Those two foes are more in line with the caliber of West Virginia. It's disconcerting to Army that it has been held to 15 points or fewer in three of its last four games. West Virginia faced much better opposition being in the Big 12 Conference. The Mountaineers defeated TCU and lost on the road to Texas by just four points. Unlike Army, West Virginia has a balanced attack. Army didn't face too many passing teams. West Virginia QB Jarret Doege isn't Trevor Lawrence, but he threw for more than 200 yards in every game and has a 13-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Running back Leddie Brown is a good all-purpose back who rushed for nearly 1,000 yards while averaging 5.3 yards per carry. The Mountaineers are the fresher team. They last played on Dec. 5 giving them ample time to game plan for Army's triple option attack. Army beat Navy on Dec. 12 and then followed that up by defeating Air Force on Dec. 19. Those were the biggest games on the Black Knights' schedule. So they might actually be in letdown mode despite this being a bowl game. Army also will be in big trouble if it has to play from behind lacking any semblance of a passing attack.
12-30-20	Portland +4.5 v. Seattle University	Top	68-84	Loss	-105	17 h 56 m	Show
Seattle beat Portland in its season opener coming back from an eight-point halftime deficit. Portland was a 2 1/2-point home favorite in that game. The oddsmaker had it right. The Pilots are the better team. I believe the Pilots still are the superior team. They've gone 6-1 since that loss and have played a stronger schedule than Seattle. The Redhawks are 5-5 and have only two wins versus Division I teams - against Portland and Air Force. The difference could come at the free throw line where Portland ranks 20th in the nation sinking 77.8 percent. Seattle makes less than 69 percent of its free throws.
12-30-20	Wisconsin -7 v. Wake Forest	Top	42-28	Win	100	29 h 52 m	Show
Wisconsin has a far superior defense than Wake Forest. The question with the Badgers is producing enough scoring to cover this touchdown spread. I see that happening against a weak Wake Forest defense and with highly-talented freshman Badgers QB Graham Mertz returning to his pre-COVID-19 form. The Badgers haven't landed a highly rated freshman quarterback like Mertz in well maybe forever. Mertz was living up to the hype, too, with a combined 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the Badgers' first two games - blowout victories against Illinois and Michigan. Then Mertz contracted COVID and Wisconsin's offense went into the tank. Mertz is past the illness now. He doesn't have the skill position weapons of previous Wisconsin teams, but the Badgers have another strong offensive line and running back depth. The Badgers led the nation in time of possession. They also are facing a Demon Deacon defense that allows 31.6 points a game and ranks 107th in total defense. Mertz can pick his spots against a highly vulnerable Wake Forest secondary. Wake Forest wins with its offense. But the Demon Deacons haven't encountered a defense like Wisconsin's. The Badgers give up the fewest yards per game in the nation and rank sixth in scoring defense holding foes to 15.6 points a game. They rank rank sixth in run defense and seventh in pass defense. Sam Hartman is a good, but not a great quarterback. He plays behind a leaky offensive line that allowed an average of 3.2 sacks per game. Wisconsin is 4-1 in bowl games under Paul Chryst. The Badgers' lone bowl defeat under Chryst came last season when they were nipped, 28-27, by Justin Herbert's Oregon team in the Rose Bowl. No shame in that especially seeing how great Herbert has been in the NFL. The Badgers missed games early in the season because of COVID-19 issues. But their season hasn't been nearly as disrupted as Wake Forest's has. The Badgers have played five games in the last six weeks. They defeated Minnesota in their last game on Dec. 19. Wake Forest has only played once since Nov. 14 and that was a horrible 45-21 loss to Louisville on Dec. 12. The Demon Deacons haven't won since October. They played the fewest games of any ACC team this season.
12-28-20	Pistons +9.5 v. Hawks	Top	120-128	Win	100	14 h 3 m	Show
Atlanta is 2-0 with a pair of road wins. But before rushing off to claim how good the Hawks have become, do realize a couple of things: Those victories have been against winless Memphis and winless Chicago, who right now is the worst team in the NBA. Trae Young is shooting 55.6 percent from the floor. Young is an emerging superstar, but he's not nearly that accurate from the floor. He shot 43.7 percent last season from the field. The Pistons should have defeated the Cavaliers in their last game this past Saturday, but lost in double-overtime after leading by eight with three minutes left. Detroit has enjoyed recent success against Atlanta. The Pistons are 4-2 in their last six games against the Hawks, including winning the most recent time. That was a 136-103 blowout victory in Atlanta last January. The Hawks have a number of injured players, including center Clint Capela. Atlanta plays at the Nets on Wednesday. So it's not inconceivable that the Hawks may be looking past the Pistons to a much bigger game. The Hawks aren't good enough to do that and cover a spread this large.
12-28-20	NJIT +12 v. Vermont	Top	81-80	Win	100	3 h 15 m	Show
I'm attracted to the underdog in this America East Conference matchup. The teams just played each other on Sunday and Vermont won, 92-78. So this is the shortest of revenge spots for NJIT. The Highlanders have the best player on the court in Zach Cooks. He made just 7 of 18 shots from the field, though, on Sunday. I expect the Highlanders to shoot better as a team and for Vermont to shoot much worse. Each team averages 73 points a game. NJIT made just 36 percent of its field goal attempts and was 6-of-25 from 3-point range in yesterday's game, while Vermont hit 56 percent of its shots from the floor and made 12 of 23 3-pointers. I see the rematch being much closer.
12-27-20	Browns -9.5 v. Jets	Top	16-23	Loss	-110	79 h 24 m	Show
Cleveland's Kevin Stefanski has turned in one of the best coaching jobs in the NFL this season. The 10-4 Browns are in line to make the playoffs for the first time since 2002. They have a chance to win the AFC North trailing the slumping Steelers by one game. Cleveland hosts Pittsburgh next week. The Browns are far superior to the Jets in talent and coaching. But could the Browns get caught peeking ahead to their showdown against the Steelers against such a lowly opponent? That happened last Sunday to the Rams. They were upset by the Jets a week before meeting the Seahawks for an NFC West Division showdown. It won't happen to the Browns, though. The Jets' shocking victory against the Rams sets up this handicap to Cleveland in two respects: The Browns won't take the Jets lightly after seeing what happened to the Rams and the Jets are fat and happy now that they won't go winless. The Browns also know they must come in with a strong effort because they will be short-handed down their top four wide receivers and linebackers B.J. Goodson and Jacob Phillip due to COVID-19. I made this play before the news broke on Saturday about these six players being out. This would not be my NFL Game of the Year if I would have known that. However, I still very much like the Browns to cover this number. Not only has the line dropped because of this news, giving the Browns more value, but also Cleveland has the right scheme to deal effectively without their top wide receivers. The Browns use more three tight end sets than any other NFL team with Austin Hooper, Harrison Bryant and David Njoku. Any one of these three could start for some NFL teams. Kareem Hunt is a very strong receiver out of the backfield. The Browns can deal without experienced wideouts because they are heavily ground-oriented with two outstanding running backs. Baker Mayfield relies on the run to set up his play-action. Cleveland is the No. 3 rushing team in the league. Nick Chubb and Hunt could be the best running back duo in the league. The Jets are decent in only one area - run defense. However, New York just lost its best player, defensive lineman Quinnen Williams. He's out for the season after suffering a neck injury. So the Browns shouldn't have a problem running, especially with Mayfield playing his finest ball of the season. Mayfield has a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games while averaging more than 300 yards passing during this span. The Jets have surrendered 30 TD passes. The Jets rank last in yards, passing yards and scoring at 14.7 points per game. The Browns have their best cornerback, Denzel Ward, back healthy. Sam Darnold has a pathetic 6-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Linebacker Mack Wilson is a capable replacement for Goodson. Many teams have multiple injuries at this late juncture of the season. The Jets are no exception. This is what Jets coach Adam Gase was quoted as saying, "We're running thin, those practice squad guys will get an opportunity this week." How good can the Jets' practice squad players be when they couldn't beat out the least talented starters/backups in the league?
12-26-20	Robert Morris +3.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne	Top	102-88	Win	100	13 h 2 m	Show
I'm not buying Purdue Fort Wayne being better than Robert Brown. The Mastodons have failed to cover the last six times they've been a home favorite and home-court doesn't mean as much this season with limited or no fans in the stands. Robert Morris went 20-14 last season while capturing the NEC championship. The Colonials could have the best player on the court in AJ Bramah, who averages 18.7 points and seven rebounds a game. The Colonials have covered six of the last seven times they've been an underdog.
12-26-20	49ers v. Cardinals -5	Top	20-12	Loss	-107	59 h 15 m	Show
The Cardinals beat the 49ers, 24-20, back in Week 1 when San Francisco was healthy. Now the 49ers are decimated by injuries and demoralized following a 41-33 loss to the Cowboys last week that eliminated them from playoff contention one season after reaching the Super Bowl. Oh, yes, San Francisco is down to third-string QB C.J. Beathard. Care to know the 49ers' record in Beathard's previous 15 appearances, including 11 starts? It's 1-14. The 49ers are well-coached, but they can't overcome probably the highest and most significant injury list in the league. The 49ers have committed multiple turnovers in eight consecutive games due to sloppy quarterback play. San Francisco is 1-6 SU and ATS in its last seven games. All of the defeats have been by at least eight points. It's obvious the 49ers are out of fuel at this late stage. Not so for the 8-6 Cardinals who are battling for a playoff spot. They rank third in the NFL in yards per game and are 13th in total defense. Sparked by Kyler Murray, the Cardinals have produced 30 or more points in six of their last 10 games.
12-24-20	Hawaii +11.5 v. Houston	Top	28-14	Win	100	25 h 41 m	Show
This has been a college football season like no other. Houston certainly can attest to that. The Cougars had eight games postponed/canceled/rescheduled because of COVID-19. They have played just once since Nov. 14 -and that was a 30-27 loss to Memphis as 7-point road favorites. Originally scheduled to be played in New Mexico, this bowl game is now being played in Frisco, Texas, which is near Dallas. Hawaii is excited to come to the mainland and play. It's only their second bowl game outside of Hawaii in 28 years. Houston isn't nearly as excited. The Cougars could be down up to 20 players because of opt outs, COVID-19 issues and academic ineligibilities. Houston has been particularly hard hit on defense. Sacks leader Payton Turner, tackles leader Grant Stuard and linebacker Terrance Edgeston all are out. Because of this the Cougars shouldn't be double-digit favorites. I don't like the track record of Cougars coach Dana Holgorsen in bowl games. He's 0-6 ATS in his last six bowl games dating back to when he was coaching at West Virginia. Hawaii is from the Mountain West Conference while Houston comes out of the American Athletic Conference. AAC teams went into Wednesday 0-2 in bowl games with Tulane losing as a short favorite to Nevada and Central Florida getting blown out by BYU. Note that Hawaii defeated Nevada, 24-21, on Nov. 28. The Rainbow Warriors don't have the high-powered attack of past seasons. But neither does Houston. The Rainbow Warriors do have a balanced attack and haven't lost the turnover battle in their past five games.
12-23-20	Florida Atlantic +9.5 v. Memphis	Top	10-25	Loss	-116	13 h 54 m	Show
I'll take these many points with a much superior Florida Atlantic defense against a Memphis squad that doesn't win bowl games, nor cover games. Memphis has a potent offense. However, Florida Atlantic gives up the ninth-fewest points in the nation and ranks 17th in sacks. Only twice in eight games did the Owls surrender more than 24 points. The Tigers failed to cover in any of the four games they were favored against Division I foes. They scored only 10 points versus Navy and 21 against Tulane in two of their past three games. Memphis has lost straight-up and failed to cover each of the last five years in its bowl games, too. Florida Atlantic has a balanced attack. I don't think the gap is nearly this wide as the point spread indicates. It wouldn't surprise me if the Owls pulled an outright upset. Of Memphis' seven victories, five of them were by a combined eight points.
12-22-20	Warriors v. Nets -6.5	Top	99-125	Win	100	37 h 36 m	Show
I see this line closing higher so I'm going to lock in now with the Nets. It's no joke. The Nets are serious contenders to win the Eastern Conference with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant each healthy and an excellent collection of talented role players. Brooklyn looked good in preseason going 2-0 beating the Celtics and Wizards by a combined average of 14 1/2 points. Golden State isn't at Brooklyn's level. Yes, Stephen Curry is back. That's enough to elevate the Warriors into a playoff contender. But that's it. Klay Thompson is out long-term and Draymond Green isn't expected to play in this game due to a foot injury. The Nets have much the stronger bench.
12-21-20	Murray State -3 v. Austin Peay	Top	70-74	Loss	-110	17 h 35 m	Show
The teams played against each other two weeks ago and Murray State won, 87-57, as 3 1/2-point home favorites. The Racers have dominated this series winning eight of the past nine times. They are 8-1-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings against Austin Peay. Murray State averages 18 more points per game than the Governors. Austin Peay has been one of the worst point spread teams going 2-13-1 ATS the past 16 times, including 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games. The Racers have too much offense again for Austin Peay. The price is cheap to back them.
12-19-20	Bills -6.5 v. Broncos	Top	48-19	Win	100	78 h 18 m	Show
The Bills are coming together as an elite team with their defense playing much better. Buffalo was very strong defensively the previous three seasons. However the Bills began this year slowly giving up 26.5 points during their first 10 games. But following their Week 11 bye, the Bills have yielded 18.7 points in their last three games. Denver has scored 21 or fewer points in six of Drew Lock's last nine starts. Lock has been picked off 13 times during this span. Josh Allen has turned the corner in this his third NFL season. He has accounted for 35 TD's proving to be both a throwing and running threat. The Broncos are without their best pass rusher, Von Miller, and have a cluster injury problem in their secondary minus their two top cornerbacks, suspended A.J. Bouye, and injured Bryce Callahan. Denver also is without injured cornerback Duke Dawson.
12-18-20	Nebraska v. Rutgers +6.5	Top	28-21	Loss	-104	38 h 33 m	Show
On the surface this game doesn't hold much interest. Nebraska is 2-5 enduring another disappointing season under Scott Frost. Rutgers is 3-5. But the game actually means something to Rutgers because the Scarlet Knights has never won more than three Big 10 games since joining the conference in 2014. "This Nebraska game is everything," Rutgers coach Greg Schiano said. Schiano has done a nice job with the Scarlet Knights. The game means more to them than the Cornhuskers. I also believe Rutgers is the better team. Nebraska averages just 22.4 points. The Cornhuskers have been favored twice - and lost straight-up both times to Illinois and to Minnesota last week. Nebraska has had multiple turnovers in five of its seven games. Rutgers leads the Big 10 in tackles for losses. Rutgers has defeated Michigan State, Purdue and Maryland. All of those wins came on the road, too.
12-14-20	Longwood +3.5 v. Radford	Top	66-67	Win	105	14 h 22 m	Show
This is the Big South Conference opener for both schools. Longwood is 1-3. Radford is worse at 1-4. I disagree about the Highlanders being favored even though they are home. Radford is 3-7-2 ATS in its last 12 home games. The Highlanders have back only one of their top seven scorers from last season. The Lancers are 6-1 ATS in their past seven road contests and 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 overall games. Longwood has held three of its first four foes to fewer than 70 points. Freshman guard Justin Hill has looked good for the Lancers. His 6.2 assists per game is second-best in the nation for a freshman. He and Juan Munoz give the Lancers a strong backcourt edge.
12-13-20	Chiefs -7 v. Dolphins	Top	33-27	Loss	-110	95 h 15 m	Show
Brian Flores is a leading contender to win Coach of the Year honors as somehow the Dolphins are 8-4. But I see them getting exposed here by the Chiefs. Miami's talent level, especially on offense, can't compare to the Chiefs. The Dolphins haven't broken 20 points in their last three games and that's going against the Broncos, Jets and Bengals. They've faced some bad quarterbacks during their last eight games: Brandon Allen, Ryan Finley, Sam Darnold, Drew Lock, Joe Flacco and C.J. Beathard. Now the Dolphins get Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City has won seven in a row. Mahomes' numbers during this win streak are 71.5 percent completions for 2,341 yards and an 18-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Rookie Tua Tagovailoa can't keep up. His statistics look better than how he has played. We're not talking about Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow here. The Dolphins lost to the Broncos three weeks ago. Kansas City beat Denver twice winning by an average of 16.5 points. Kansas City has won its last 11 road/neutral site games. The Chiefs have covered 67 percent during the past 19 times they've been chalk.
12-13-20	Massachusetts -3 v. Northeastern	Top	75-78	Loss	-112	10 h 55 m	Show
These two teams opened their seasons just two days ago facing each other in the front end of a home-and-home series. It was no contest. UMass built a 20-point lead and easily handled Northeastern, 94-79. The Minutemen also defeated Northeastern last season by nine points. Tre Mitchell of UMass was the best player on the court scoring 31 points. The sophomore guard averaged 17.7 points last season. Northeastern is in rebuild mode having lost its two top scorers from last season. The Huskies are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games. The Minutemen are ranked 119th in Ken Pomeroy's highly-respected college basketball ratings while the Huskies are placed at 182nd. I see no reason why UMass shouldn't win and cover again in this short turnaround.
12-09-20	Furman +4 v. Cincinnati	Top	73-78	Loss	-110	13 h 22 m	Show
If you go by the highly respected KenPom.com ratings you'll see that Cincinnati is ranked 63rd and Furman right behind the Bearcats at 64. The Paladins are favored to win the Southern Conference. They have played only low-major opponents so far, but the results have been impressive: 4-0 with an average victory margin of 31.2 points. Furman had one of the 100 most efficient offenses in the country last season. The Paladins were among the top 10 best mid-majors in the country. So this isn't going to be an easy opponent for Cincinnati, especially given that the 1-1 Bearcats aren't playing well defensively and don't have a set rotation. This quote from Cincinnati coach John Brannen is telling: "I'm really learning our team," Brannen said following the Bearcats' 77-69 loss to Xavier this past Sunday. "We don't have a rotation yet. Those are things that we're learning." Furman guard Mike Bothwell is playing at a very high level averaging nearly 22 points a game. The Paladins have covered five of their last six road games. The Bearcats are 0-7 ATS at home going back to last season and 1-6 ATS after not covering in their previous game.
12-06-20	Rams -2.5 v. Cardinals	Top	38-28	Win	100	133 h 8 m	Show
The Cardinals are an improving team that is struggling right now held in check the past two weeks by the Seahawks and Patriots, neither of whom's defense can compare to the Rams. Kyler Murray may not be 100 percent. The Rams are the best team in football if you go by yardage, having the largest differential in the league. LA ranks in the top-five in all of the major defensive categories. Aaron Donald is the most disruptive lineman in the NFL and Jalen Ramsey is that rare cornerback who can handle DeAndre Hopkins. LA's balanced offense can control clock and take advantage of a mediocre Arizona defense that has multiple defensive line injuries and is minus its star pass rusher, Chandler Jones. The Rams have owned the Cardinals beating them the past six times going 5-0-1 ATS. Arizona would be 0-4 in its last four home contests if not for a successful Hail Mary against the Bills and an overtime victory against Seattle. Under Sean McVay, the Rams have won 21 of 31 road games going 19-12 (61 percent) ATS.
12-05-20	Indiana v. Wisconsin -14	Top	14-6	Loss	-110	76 h 13 m	Show
The Badgers ended up having two weeks to stew after their upset loss to Northwestern since last week's game against Minnesota was cancelled. Wisconsin is 15-5 ATS following a bye for 75 percent. Wisconsin catches a huge break in that Indiana lost its starting QB, Michael Penix, for the season due to a knee injury suffered last week against Maryland. The Hoosiers' strength was their passing attack. Their ground game had been disappointing until playing the Terps. The Badgers give up the fewest yards in the nation. They also rank No. 2 in run defense. Only two teams allow fewer points per game than Wisconsin, which has held its opponents to an average of 11.7 per game. I don't see the Hoosiers being able to dent Wisconsin's defense with a backup QB and mediocre ground attack. The Hoosiers have thrived on takeaways coming up with 18, including a nation-best 16 interceptions. Wisconsin is a ground-and-pound team, though, with its best quarterback prospect, Graham Mertz, in a long time. Mertz is back healthy and because of his passing skills, the Hooisers won't be able to stack the line, or play their safeties in the box to load up on the run.
12-04-20	Oregon v. Seton Hall +3	Top	83-70	Loss	-103	13 h 23 m	Show
Oregon may have the higher ceiling, but right now these teams are very even. I consider this a pick''em type game so I'll gladly accept points with the underdog Pirates. This game is at neutral site Omaha, Neb. The Pirates have covered a highly impressive 81 percent of their last 22 neutral site games. Due to COVID-19 issues, Oregon has been able to play only one game. The Ducks' opener against Eastern Washington was postponed. Oregon is breaking in four new starters. The Ducks are without Will Richardson, one of their best players. He's out with a thumb injury. So Oregon really needs to get into action. Seton Hall already is battle tested. The Pirates defeated Iona, but lost 71-70 to Louisville as a 5-point 'dog and fell 76-63 to Rhode Island.
12-03-20	Louisiana Tech +2 v. North Texas	Top	42-31	Win	100	11 h 22 m	Show
Louisiana Tech currently is a slight road underdog to North Texas. But the Bulldogs shouldn't be. They have had four weeks to prepare and catch North Texas down in the dumps following a demoralizing 49-17 road loss to Texas San Antonio, probably the Mean Green's biggest Conference USA rival. Louisiana Tech is a dangerous 4-3 team with two of its defeats coming to Top 15 teams Marshall and BYU and the other defeat coming to Texas San Antonio, 27-26. The Bulldogs haven't played in the last four weeks. But the rust factor is more than offset by being fresh, having good practices and deep preparation for North Texas. The Mean Green, on the other hand, are playing on just five day's rest. Louisiana Tech is averaging better than 30 points per game and has some excellent skill position talent, including wide receiver Smoke Harris and running back Israel Tucker. They can take advantage of a Mean Green defense that ranks last in Conference USA in scoring defense giving up 41 points a game and also is at the bottom in rush defense and pass defense. The Bulldogs buried North Texas, 52-17, last season. North Texas has covered just four of its last 14 home contests and is a dreadful 1-11 ATS versus above .500 opponents.
12-01-20	Kentucky v. Kansas -4.5	Top	62-65	Loss	-110	17 h 37 m	Show
Both teams are replacing key players. But Kansas' rebuild job is further along and far less daunting than Kentucky's. The Wildcats are likely to get better as the season progresses, but right now they are extremely inexperienced and not ready for an opponent the caliber of Kansas. Kentucky, starting four freshmen, was exposed by Richmond two days ago losing, 76-64, as 6 1/2-point favorites. The Wildcats were 0-for-10 from 3-point range and committed 21 turnovers. Keion Brooks Jr. is Kentucky's only returning starter and he has a leg injury. The Wildcats have missed 18 of 26 3-pointers on the season. Kansas had a good test in its opener falling, 102-90, to top-ranked Gonzaga. The Jayhawks rebounded to beat Saint Joseph's, 94-72, this past Friday. Kansas showed good depth in that game. Christian Braun and redshirt freshman point guard Dajuan Harris were sharp in that game. The Jayhawk are ahead of the Wildcats right now. Kansas has shown offensive efficiency while Kentucky's defense and outside shooting have not been impressive.

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