The timing is right for the Timberwolves to upset the Trail Blazers.
Minnesota has lost four in a row, including all three during its current homestand. This is the Timberwolves' final game at Target Center before heading out for four consecutive road games - all likely losses since they face the Clippers, Suns, Thunder and Spurs.
The Timberwolves are off an embarrassing blowout loss to the Nuggets in their last game. Flip Saunders said it was his team's most disappointing loss in two months. Following an off day and then a day of practice should ensure a fresh and motivated Timberwolves squad for this matchup. Nikola Pekovic and Gary Neal are expected to play.
This will be Portland's first game since finding out that Wesley Matthews is out for the season after suffering a ruptured Achilles tendon on Thursday against the Mavericks. Matthews isn't just Portland's third-leading scorer and top 3-point shooter. He brings a strong all-around game and is a steady force having played in 153 straight games. Matthews is an underrated player and his loss is going to be felt. LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard are the stars, but Matthews has been the unsung glue for Portland.
 The Trail Blazers' weak bench is made worse by the Matthews' injury since it elevates Arron Afflalo into the starting lineup. Afflalo is having a down year so far. That may change since he's now with the Trail Blazers and not the Nuggets. But he's still going through an adjustment period.  
The Timberwolves usually play better defense at home. They also have capable scorers. Rookie Andrew Wiggins is averaging 20.9 points in his last seven games. Minnesota has covered five of the past six times at home.
Portland is in a weird spot and not just because of the shell shock over losing Matthews. The Trail Blazers just hosted the Mavericks on Thursday and blew them out. After this game they fly back to Portland for consecutive home games. So this is an odd situational element and also marks Portland's third game in four days. That's rough on any team especially one with weak reserves.

The defending champion Huskies don't have it this season. That was made evident after they suffered a grueling 54-53 home loss to Memphis just two days ago. Memphis won despite not having its leading scorer, Austin Nichols.
That game didn't finish until late Thursday night. Connecticut starters logged 165 floor minutes. Now the demoralized Huskies have this quick turnaround to Philadelphia knowing their only realistic hope of defending their NCAA title is to win the American Athletic Conference tournament. An early start time here certainly doesn't help fatigued Connecticut either.
The Huskies are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games. They have lost and failed to cover in five of their last seven conference road matchups falling 30 points below market expectations in these games. The Huskies actually would best be served by not wasting energy because a victory isn't going to improve their NCAA chances. They're going to need to win the AAC Tournament so they should scale back the minutes of their starters in preparation for achieving that long-shot goal. So I'm certainly not expecting to see the Huskies' "A" game here.
Temple needs this game more than Connecticut in terms of trying to land an NCAA Tournament berth. The Owls are 21-9. They have covered eight of their last 11 AAC games. They defeated Connecticut, 57-53, on New Year's Eve on the road in overtime. The setting is much better here for the Owls.
The atmosphere should be highly favorable for Temple. This is the last home game for Will Cummings and Jesse Morgan. The Owls also played two days ago, but their starters logged 35 fewer minutes than Connecticut's starters did on Thursday. Temple not only is the better team but is in better shape for this matchup mentally and physically.

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Utah is nothing special on the road. The Utes are just 6-5 away from home. Washington State has been keeping its last few games close as five points or less has been the winning margin during its past three games.

The Cougars are capable at home owning victories against Stanford and Oregon. They are 5-1 ATS the past six times when hosting an opponent that has a winning road record. 

Colorado State 98, Nevada 42. That was the score of the first meeting. It was the largest margin of victory in a Mountain West Conference game. And the Rams did this without having their leading scorer and rebounder, J.J. Avila.
Of course I'm not expecting Colorado State to win this rematch by 56 points even with Avila back. But the Rams should prevail easily by double-digits.  
Colorado State is a bubble team that can't afford a slip up here. The Rams create big match up problems for the Wolf Pack with their four-guard offense and up-tempo style.
The Rams average nearly 73 points per game. Nevada doesn't have the offense to stay with them. The Wolf Pack lost by 32 points to Boise State, by 16 to Utah State at home and by 13 on the road to the Aggies. Those two teams are similar to Colorado State.

The Suns are worse than their overall won-lost record. Their players realize they aren't going to make the playoffs after some early season promise so morale and chemistry are down. Phoenix has dropped 10 of its last 13. The Suns are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.
The Magic have become rejuvenated defensively under interim coach James Borrego. Since Borrego replaced inept Jacque Vaughn nine games ago, the Magic have given up an average of 92 points per game. Not one opponent has reached triple digits against them during this past nine-game span.
Orlando is 7-3-1 ATS in is last 11 games and can take advantage of the Suns' 28th-ranked defense and minus 2.2 rebound differential.

This is a lot of points to be taking with a hot Jazz squad especially with such a low over/under total.
Utah is playing its best defense of the season holding its past five foes to an average of 82.8 points per game. The Jazz are 6-2 in their last eight games - and their wins have come against solid opponents. During this span, Utah has defeated the Pelicans, Trail Blazers, Spurs and Bucks.
The Jazz have the height and physical front line to match up to the Grizzlies with Derrick Favors and underrated Rudy Gobert.
Memphis isn't playing well right now. In their last three games, the Grizzlies lost by 12 points to the Kings, lost by 18 to the Clippers who were missing Blake Griffin, and nipped the Timberwolves by four.
The Grizzlies also have a bigger game on deck Wednesday when they play on the road against the Rockets.  

Forget their season record. The Timberwolves are much better now with a healthy roster, except for Nikola Pekovic who is questionable, and the addition of Kevin Garnett.
Garnett is near the end of a great career, but the team's all-time leader in points and rebounds can still inspire and provides much needed leadership and a winner's mentality. Garnett's return to Minnesota also has rejuvenated the fan base. Garnett purchased 1,000 tickets for this game to be given out to fans.
The Timberwolves have the talent to upset the Blake Griffin-less Clippers and they catch LA in a vulnerable scheduling spot. The Clippers are off impressive road victories against the Grizzlies on Friday and Bulls on Sunday. After this game, the Clippers fly back to LA to host Portland on Wednesday in a much more challenging contest for them.
Despite these recent victories, the Clippers still are 6-13 ATS during their past 19 road contests. They also haven't done well when playing on Monday failing to cover seven of the past eight times on that day.
Minnesota has covered its past four home games and in six of its last seven versus Western Conference foes.

The bloom is off Oregon State and I don't see the Beavers getting it back in this road setting.
The Beavers are 1-4 in their last five games. Never a strong offensive team, the Beavers averaged 49.7 points in those four losses. Oregon State can't play on the road either losing and failing to cover in eight of its 10 away matchups, including the last five.
Oregon State's latest road defeat came this past Thursday to Stanford, 75-48. The Cardinal scored 47 second-half points.
Cal is celebrating senior day and has beaten Oregon State four consecutive times at home. The Golden Bears are unlikely to make the NCAA Tournament, but hold matchup edges to go with their home-court advantage against Oregon State.
Aside from Gary Payton II, the Beavers can't match Cal's talent level. Tyrone Wallace is one of the top guards in the nation. He and Jordan Mathews are one of the better guard tandems in the West.
The Golden Bears also can exploit a size advantage. Their up-tempo backcourt can take advantage of Oregon State's depth issues that are made worse by getting worn down this late in the season.

Both teams played last night, which favors the deeper Hawks. 

Miami isn't close to Atlanta's level. It has been more than a month since the Heat even beat an above .500 team. Their last five victories have been against the 76ers, Knicks twice, Magic and Celtics before the Isaiah Thomas trade. 

The teams met twice this season and the Hawks won both times by double-digits. Miami has fared much better on the road than at home where it is 10-16 SU, 8-16-2 ATS. The Hawks, by contrast, have covered 20 of their last 26 road contests. 

The Heat are minus Chris Bosh and have ball-handling problems that the Hawks can exploit. 

The road and a weak bench are a combination that will sink the Beavers here. Aside from beating Washington State in early January, Oregon State hasn't won a Pac-12 road game going 1-6. The Beavers have lost their last four away matchups by a combined 70 points!
The Beavers' weak bench figures to get exposed by Stanford, a veteran squad that also can take advantage of the Beavers being without suspended 6-foot-7 forward Victor Robbins.
Oregon State has failed to cover in seven of its last nine games.  
 

The Suns are not a playoff team - and they know it. Their frontcourt is nothing special and their backcourt isn't deep anymore.
Until they beat hopeless Denver last night, the Suns were 1-8 in their last nine games, losing five in a row. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Western Conference matchups.
The Suns lose part of their home-court edge having to play last night in Denver while the Thunder was idle. The Suns come home tired. Oklahoma City has covered in six of its last eight visits to the desert.
The Thunder have covered in their last seven games. They are 4-0 since the All-Star break beating market expectations by 30 points during this span.
No player has had a better February than Russell Westbrook. Serge Ibaka is playing at a high level now, too, and can help Oklahoma City's front line take advantage of the Suns' mediocre inside players. The Suns give up the third-most points in the NBA, have the sixth-lowest rebounding percentage in the league and are undergoing trade-transition trouble with nearly one-third of their roster revamped.

The timing is right to ride the red-hot Cavaliers and fade the Warriors in this matchup. Cleveland is 17-2 in its last 19 games and has won 10 in a row at home. They catch the Warriors in the middle of a six-game road swing and not playing up to their earlier high standards. In their last two games, the Warriors allowed the Pacers to shoot better than 48 percent from the floor and then allowed the Wizards to make 53.2 percent of their field goals this past Tuesday.
Going back even further the Warriors only beat the 76ers by five points, Timberwolves by three and struggling Spurs by 11. Maybe in the end the Warriors prove to be the best team, but right now they are in a down cycle.
The Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated for this matchup especially with a revenge factor and being on the road during four of their next five games. Cleveland was missing LeBron James when it lost to Golden State last month and entered that matchup on a three-game losing streak.
The key to beating the Warriors is limiting their fast breaks and defending well against the 3-pointer. The Cavaliers allow less than 10 fast break points at home, which leads the league. The Cavaliers have held their last three opponents to 22 percent from 3-point range.

Here's the short answer: South Dakota is playing well and Denver is terrible on the road.
South Dakota has won five of its last six, including its last four. The Coyotes are playing consistent yet still are capable of more. This is what South Dakota coach Craig Smith was quoted as saying following the Coyotes' last game: We are consistently starting to play our best, but I am not sure if we've had our best game. But we've show more consistency in the last two weeks."
South Dakota has the better offense, better athletes and stronger bench. Denver is in real danger if it gets into foul trouble. The Coyotes have a winning record in the Summit League, while Denver is five games below .500 in league play. South Dakota has covered six of the past eight times versus opponents with a losing mark.
South Dakota defeated Denver, 74-69, on the road on Jan. 4. The Coyotes achieved this despite making just 41.8 percent of their shots from the floor while the Pioneers connected on 53.5 percent of their shots from the field. Denver also hit 17 of 20 free throws for 85 percent. The Pioneers are a good free throw shooting team, but not nearly that good. The Pioneers average fewer than 63 points per game.
Denver won its last game, beating Western Illinois on the road. Western Illinois is tied for last in the Summit at 3-11. The Pioneers are 4-13 ATS the past 17 times following a victory. That was just their second road win in 11 away matchups this season. They are 2-8 ATS in their lined road contests this season. The Pioneers have failed to cover the past three times they've been underdogs.


 

Look I'm not fooled by the Pistons' 23-33 record. They are better than that and have been playing well going 18-10 in their last 28 games, including posting decisive victories against the Bulls and Wizards following All-Star break.
But I'm not sold on the new-look Pistons stepping up in this matchup against a vastly superior opponent that is the hottest team in basketball. The Cavaliers have come together winning 16 of their last 18. During this time, the Cavaliers are shooting a league-best 47.9 percent from the field while averaging 108.6 points.
The Cavaliers have adjusted to their new faces, Timofey Mozgov, J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert. They have fit in well supporting  superstars LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love.
The Pistons are on their third starting point guard with newcomer Reggie Jackson, who will be making just his second  appearance with Detroit. Jackson likely will be joined in the starting lineup by another Detroit newcomer, Tayshaun Prince. The Cavaliers are the wrong team - at the wrong time - for the Pistons to make these adjustments against.
Cleveland is 7-2 ATS on one day's rest and has covered 11 of the past 15 times following a win.  

You have to go back to mid-December to find the last time the Spurs dropped three in a row. The Spurs are 0-2 out of the All-Star break losing to the Clippers and Warriors. Now, though, they step way down in class.
Utah is off an impressive 92-76 win against Portland this past Friday in its first game following All-Star break. That was the Jazz's second consecutive home victory. They haven't won three in a row at home all season.
The young Jazz are a lottery team and very inconsistent. They are 11-15 at home with a .500 spread record in Salt Lake City.
San Antonio's offense is down this season. Tony Parker has yet to fully get going. But the Spurs still average 97.6 points on the road. The Jazz have lost 30 of the past 34 times when giving up 97 or more points.  
The Spurs have a huge edge in talent with Parker, a still highly effective Tim Duncan at 38 and Kawhi Leonard. They aren't going to lack for motivation either off back-to-back defeats.
When the teams last met on Jan. 18 in San Antonio, the Spurs held the Jazz to their lowest point total in 16 years winning 89-69.  

The Hawks haven't lost three in a row all season. They will, though, if they lose this matchup. I don't see that happening.
Atlanta wasn't playing up to its early high standard right before the All-Star break and then came out of the break getting blasted 105-80 by the Raptors at home.
I see the Hawks hunkering down here, improving their defense and comfortably beating the Bucks. Milwaukee is playing well, but its lineup is different now with Brandon Knight gone. Until Michael Carter-Williams is ready to return from a toe injury - and it won't be here - the Bucks are way below average at point guard.
The Bucks' strength is coaching, versatility and a strong bench. The Hawks have all of those traits, too, plus a far better starting lineup with four All-Stars. The Hawks have won during their last five visits to Bradley Center.
There are several distractions the Bucks face, too. They were active at the trade deadline so adjustments have to be made. Also Larry Sanders was let go ending an on-going saga. Milwaukee was fortunate to draw totally messed-up Denver for its first game following the All-Star break. This is a huge step up in class.  
Atlanta received a wake-up call from the Raptors. The Hawks haven't been playing well - which is a big reason why this line is so low. But I see a full, focused effort from the more talented team. That should result in an easy Hawks cover.

UAB has qualified for the Conference USA Tournament. The Blazers are coming off a huge emotional home victory against Western Kentucky this past Thursday, 71-66. They are a decent, but far from outstanding team.
Marshall has a bad record but has been coming on. The Thundering Herd had won and covered three in a row until suffering an embarrassing 90-51 road loss to Middle Tennessee State this past Thursday where they were outscored 50-7 at one juncture of the second half.  
This is what Marshall coach Dan D'Antoni was quoted as saying following that humiliation: "We've got to be a little more disciplined and a little more tougher minded. I thought when things went bad you could see them kind of drooped. You could see the droop. That was something we did early in the year and don't want that to come back."
I see Marshall, which is still trying to qualify for the Conference USA Tournament, giving a full, all-out effort here and getting good line value due to its blowout loss in its last game. The Thundering Herd are 11-5-1 ATS following a loss. They also are 3-0 ATS this season when off a loss of more than 20 points.
The Blazers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. This has been a road team series with the visitor going 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.

I'll go with the borderline playoff team from the Western Conference against the borderline playoff team from the much inferior Eastern Conference.
The Pelicans are a .500 club playing in the far more difficult division while Miami is 23-30.
The Heat have been a better road club. They are 9-15 SU at home, 8-15-1 ATS. Miami is 2-8-1 during its past 11 home contests versus opponents with a losing road mark.
This has become a crucial game for the Pelicans after losing last night to the Magic. Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson each returned from injury, but both were rusty against the Magic. They should both be much better today. The Heat have no one near the caliber of Davis.
New Orleans has covered 13 of the past 16 times when playing without rest.  
Dwayne Wade is back for Miami from a hamstring injury, but his minutes may be limited since he played last night. The Heat had an easy time since they played the Knicks, who are now without Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire. The Pelicans are several tiers above the Knicks.
Goran Dragic could make his Miami debut here. However, there is going to be an adjustment period for Dragic, Wade and the rest of the team. Chris Bosh remains out and his health concerns must be a team distraction.

Nobody is saying the Nets are a good team. But despite an awful record, the Nets are just one game out of a playoff spot. Brooklyn can't compete against elite teams, but can be trusted to take care of business against bottom feeders.  
The Lakers are 1-15 in their last 16 games going 3-12-1 ATS. They have dropped six in a row, rank last in defense and are in the midst of more lineup changes. Winning is not paramount with the Lakers. Improving their lottery position is.
Minus Kobe Bryant, the Lakers have no one to push and motivate.  
The week-long All-Star break should prove beneficial to the veteran-laded Nets especially for Joe Johnson and Deron Williams. Brooklyn retained Brook Lopez so it has a scoring advantage inside against the Lakers.
The Nets improved themselves at the All-Streak break trading Kevin Garnett for Thaddeus Young, who is averaging 14.3 points this season and ranked in the top three in steals last season. Young should be available against the Lakers.
The Nets give up nearly seven fewer points per game than the Lakers and their defense is going to be improved with Young's presence. Brooklyn ranks 14th defensively despite not having a player ranked in the top 50 in steals.  
Brooklyn has four more road games on this Western Conference road trip. This is the Nets' easiest matchup. They can't afford not to be ready.

I see the Kings and their fans motivated and energized for the first time in a long period with the coaching switch to George Karl, who makes his Sacramento coaching debut here.
The Kings have a huge frontcourt edge with DeMarcus Cousins, who is averaging a career-high 23.8 points and 12.5 rebounds. The Celtics are further hampered inside with Jared Sullinger out with a foot injury. Sullinger is Boston's leading scorer and rebounder. The Celtics lack size minus Sullinger.
Boston's lacks the frontcourt depth to adequately replace Sullinger. The Celtics' backcourt was upgraded at the trade deadline yesterday with the acquisition of Isaiah Thomas. He is not expected to play tonight. If Thomas does play, it will be an adjustment with all new teammates. The Kings also know their former teammate.   
The Celtics have lost in their last three trips to Sacramento and are 1-4 ATS the past five times playing the Kings on the road.

Oregon State has overachieved all season at home. But the Beavers are no match for Utah either from a height, depth and talent standpoint.
The Utes have won their Pac-12 games by an average of 22.8 points per game. They rank No. 1 in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Oregon State doesn't have the offensive to stay with the Utes even at Gill Coliseum. The Beavers have failed to cover in six of their last seven Pac-12 contests.
The only thing keeping this spread under double-digits is Oregon State's unbeaten home mark. Look for that to get erased in a big way in this matchup, though.

I like Doc Rivers, but no coach is better with extra preparation time than Gregg Popovich.
This, of course, is the first game for both teams since the All-Star break. The Clippers entered the break 3-5 in their last eight games. They are not in great form especially defensively where they have surrendered an average of 110.4 points during their past five games.
San Antonio plays at Golden State on Friday. The Spurs are not going to be favored in that matchup. No way does Popovich want his team losing their first two games following All-Star break.
The Spurs also will be extra motivated by an embarrassing 105-85 home loss to the Clippers during their last meeting on Jan. 31. That was the Clippers' widest margin of victory ever against San Antonio. The star of the game was Blake Griffin, who scored 31 points and pulled down 13 rebounds.
Griffin is expected to be out at least another two weeks after having surgery last week to remove a staph infection from his right elbow.
The Spurs are the better defensive club, giving up four less points per game than the Clippers. San Antonio, though, is averaging 103.9 points per 100 possessions down from 108.2 from last season when they won the championship.
Tony Parker hasn't had a great year. Look for Parker, who had been dealing with a sore hamstring, to be rejuvenated following the long break and up for the challenge of squaring off against fellow star point guard Chris Paul.
The Spurs have a long history of starting to peak following the break. The Spurs have shown signs of coming on winning 13 of their last 17. They are fresh following the All-Star break, are a prideful, extremely well-coached team with revenge and draw the Clippers minus their star inside scorer, Griffin.
All of this should result in the Spurs winning this game by more than a basket.   

Northwestern has some much needed confidence after upsetting Iowa this past Sunday, can take advantage of Minnesota's weakness in 3-point defense and has proven itself on the road in the Big Ten.
The Wildcats have had only one bad conference road loss in six trips. They covered at Wisconsin. They beat Rutgers, which defeated Wisconsin at home. The Wildcats also took Michigan State to overtime in East Lansing and lost hard-fought road games to Michigan and Maryland by a combined three points. They are 6-1 ATS in their past seven road matchups.
Minnesota's defensive weakness is 3-point defense. The Gophers give up 35.7 percent shooting from beyond the arc, ranking them 241st. Northwestern ranks fifth in the Big Ten in 3-point shooting at 35.8 percent.
The Gophers were blown out in their last game by Indiana, which leads the Big Ten in 3-point shooting. Prior to that game, the Gophers had won three in a row beating Iowa, Purdue and Nebraska. The Hawkeyes ranked ninth in the league in 3-point shooting while the Boilermakers were 12th and Cornhuskers 14th.
Before meeting Indiana, the Gophers had played just one of the Big Ten's top five 3-point shooting teams and that was Maryland. The Terrapins made eight 3-pointers in beating the Gophers, 70-58, at home. Northwestern lost to the Terrapins by one point on the road.  
Minnesota has failed to cover in 11 of its last 14 Big Ten games. Its last two meetings against Northwestern have been decided by a combined seven points.

Yes, it's a great rivalry, but that can't hide the fact these teams are going in opposite directions.
Michigan State is off its best week of the season blowing out Northwestern on the road and defeating then 23rd-ranked Ohio State this past Saturday. This is the time where Tom Izzo has his Spartans starting to peak. I don't see them taking a step back against a banged-up and demoralized Michigan squad that has lost three overtime contests during its past six games.
Michigan has lost five of its past six, including its last four. The Wolverines have a short bench and are minus their best players as Derrick Walton and Caris LeVert remain out. Their perimeter game really is hurting without those two.
The Wolverines are averaging 57 points during regulation in their last three games. Michigan State ranks 54th defensively giving up 61.2 points. I don't see the Wolverines putting up enough points to get the cover.  
Note, too, that Michigan has failed to cover in nine of its last 13 home games.

The record shows Virginia to be 23-1 and Pittsburgh having lost four of its five ACC road games. The Panthers probably aren't going to get an NCAA Tournament bid - unless they beat Virginia here on the road.
But there is far more behind the records that indicate the underdog Panthers are the right play in this matchup.
Pitt is playing its finest ball. In their last five games, the Panthers have gone 4-1 with their only loss during this span coming to Louisville in which they led by six with 12 minutes left. Pittsburgh has knocked off Syracuse, Notre Dame and North Carolina by 13 points in its last game during this span.
The Panthers aren't going to lack for motivation even coming off the huge win against the Tar Heels just two days ago. That's because they likely need a win - or at least to play a close game - to impress the NCAA Tournament committee that they are capable of playing well on the road since they lack quality road victories.  
This is what Pittsburgh coach Jamie Dixon was quoted as saying about his team, "You're seeing guys improve. They're playing with a lot of confidence. We're getting better at the right time."
Virginia is not the same since losing forward Justin Anderson, its best player and defender. He's missed the past two games with a broken finger and remains out. Since Anderson was lost, the Cavaliers beat North Carolina State, 51-47, as a 7-point road favorite and nipped Wake Forest, 61-60, at home as an 18-point favorite this past Saturday. The Demon Deacons had the ball at the end with a chance to win.
Virginia was 3-of-23 from 3-point range in those two games. Anderson is by far the Cavaliers' best 3-point shooter. North Carolina State and Wake Forest are a combined 10-16 in ACC games.
The Panthers played the Cavaliers tough during their two meetings last season losing 48-45 on a 3-pointer at the buzzer and falling 51-48 in the ACC Tournament semifinals. The Panthers shot a combined 34.4 percent from the floor in those two games and still lost each time by just three points.
No, the Panthers aren't going to shoot 64.9 percent from the floor and score 89 points like they did versus North Carolina two days ago. But they are more than capable of keeping this far closer than this spread indicates especially with Anderson out for the Cavaliers.

This is a huge game for Illinois and the Illini will be up for the challenge remembering last year. That was when they were 13-2, ranked No. 23 and lost by 25 points at Madison. That loss derailed the Illini for the rest of the season.
Wisconsin is outstanding, obviously capable of winning the NCAA championship. So this isn't a fade on the Badgers. It's just a strong belief that Illinois can keep this close. The Illini have reached a high point in their season with four straight victories pushing their record to 17-8.
Illinois is capable owning victories against Baylor and Maryland, two teams that rank in the top 15 in the RPI standings. The Illini also have senior guard and leading scorer Rayvonte Rice back. He had missed nine games with a broken hand and team suspension, but got some rust off against Michigan in the Illini's last game. Rice averaged 21.5 points in two meetings against the Badgers last season.

Usually it's prudent to avoid Oregon State on the road. Play on the Beavers at home, but certainly not away. That's not the case here, though.
Oregon State is hungry to establish its credibility away from Corvallis. It desperately needs a road win and the timing is right here. USC is really struggling. The Trojans last won on Jan. 7. They've lost nine in a row and are likely to be without point guard Jordan McLaughlin, who injured his surgically repaired left shoulder during USC's 80-75 home loss to Oregon this past Wednesday.
McLaughlin, the Trojans' team leader in assists, steals and minutes played, is difficult to replace. USC is thin and weak shooting in the backcourt. Making matters worse for the Trojans is Oregon State has one of the best defensive backcourts in the country. Gary Payton II has 70 steals and is one of the top all-around guards in the country. He has at least one steal in 24 straight games.
USC has covered just 31 percent of its last 62 home games. Oregon State has beaten USC eight of the past 11 times and is 7-2 ATS the last nine times against foes with a losing mark.

Here's what you need to know about the Horizon League. Valparaiso, Green Bay and Cleveland State are all tied for first and all are undefeated in conference play at home, a combined 17-0.
I want Valpo going for me at home and in a revenge spot. The Crusaders lost 51-50 on the road to Green Bay on Jan. 23. Valpo fell by one point on the road to the Phoenix despite shooting less than 35 percent from the floor and missing 16 consecutive shots in the second half.
Look for the Crusaders to be far more in sync at home where they are 11-1 on the season. Since that loss to Green Bay, the Crusaders have won four in a row. The Phoenix, on the other hand, have failed to cover in four of their last five Horizon League games.
Green Bay's senior point guard Keifer Sykes might be the best player in the Horizon League. But Valpo has the more balanced lineup and a star, too, in Alec Peters. He's averaging 17.3 points and is on pace to become the first sophomore in program history to score 1,000 points in a season for the Crusaders. Valpo hasn't lost all season when Peters reaches double figures.

Stanford has the offense to hang with Utah. The Cardinal rank 34th in the country in scoring at 74.9 points per game. They also rank 14th in 3-point shooting despite senior Chasson Randle missing 13 of 15 shots from beyond the arc during the last two games.
Randle leads the Pac-12 in scoring and made 7 of 10 shots from 3-point range when the Cardinal beat Utah, 61-60, in last season's regular-season finale.
Stanford is doing a great job getting to the free throw line shooting 26 more free throws than its opponents during the past six games.
The Cardinal have lost their four Pac-12 games by an average of five points. They are 5-1 ATS the past six times facing an opponent with a winning percentage above .600.

The Spurs shouldn't lack motivation as they have revenge for a blown 18-point lead in a 105-104 home loss to the Pistons last month.
San Antonio was missing Kawhi Leonard in that game and Tony Parker missed the second half. The Spurs are healthy now.
Detroit has failed to cover in 21 of its last 30 home games. The Pistons are 3-11 ATS in their past 14 home contests versus foes with a winning road mark.
The Pistons are fat and happy heading into break having defeated the Hornets on the road last night in big fashion. The Pistons have a huge backcourt disadvantage minus Brandon Jennings, who scored the winning basket in their earlier victory against San Antonio.  

The Nets are an old, veteran team composed of one-time stars past their primes. They are vulnerable to athletic, deep teams.
Memphis isn't especially athletic, nor does it have a deep bench. The Grizzlies' strength is rebounding and physical play. They are much more of an Eastern Conference team than a racehorse Western Conference opponent. Brooklyn has defeated Memphis in two of its past three meetings.  
The Nets can hang with them matchup-wise and won't lack for motivation. The veteran Nets have a lot of prideful players. This is their last game before All-Star break. The Nets are battling for a playoff spot and also some of their veterans - Deron Williams, Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson come quickly to mind - are playing for their futures. There are trade rumors swirling around them. So a strong effort should be forthcoming.
The Grizzlies aren't looking to cover a double-digit margin. They have a more important game and tougher opponent on deck Wednesday when they play the Thunder in Oklahoma City.
 

This marks the Clippers' final game of their eight-game road trip that started Jan. 28. The trip has turned into a disaster with Blake Griffin and J.J. Redick out. The Clippers have lost and failed to cover in their last four games. They have a high fatigue rating here.
But they also are catching far too many points here in a step-up spot against an overrated foe that is 3-11 against the Western Conference's seven other teams in playoff position.
Dallas is 5-16-1 ATS in its last 22 games versus Western Conference foes and has covered just 40 percent of its home games this season.
The Clippers have been hurt on the boards, outrebounded by 46 during their last three games. The Mavericks are not a good rebounding team, though, and will have trouble dealing with DeAndre Jordan, who has averaged 16.4 points and 15.2 rebounds in his last five games versus the Mavericks.

The won-lost records show Toronto better than San Antonio at 34-17 compared to the Spurs' 32-18. But make no mistake, there is a class difference between these two clubs.
The Spurs are far superior to the Raptors. The defending world champions finally appear healthy now for the first time.
This is the opening game of the Spurs' annual rodeo road swing - nine consecutive away matchups. San Antonio just concluded a 5-1 homestand and has won nine of its last 11. The Spurs won't be home again until March 4. They certainly want to start their trip out right.  
The Spurs are a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS this season when beginning a road trip of two or more games. No coach is more dangerous with a day of extra preparation time than Gregg Popovich. The Spurs have added incentive here, too, because their next victory would give Popovich his 1,000th win. Popovich is not the type of guy who wants that distraction and hoopla to linger with his team. The Spurs want to achieve that milestone for Popovich as soon as possible.
Toronto took advantage of a tired Clippers squad to post a 123-107 win two days ago. Prior to that, however, the Raptors lost games to the Bucks and Nets, two borderline playoff teams in the much weaker Eastern Conference.
The Raptors have failed to cover in seven of their last nine home games and are 3-12-1 ATS on one days rest. They also are only 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games when facing a foe with a winning road mark.
San Antonio not only has a winning road record - straight-up and ATS - but has won seven in a row versus the Raptors, including the past four in Toronto. The Spurs are far better than the Raptors on one day rest covering 23 of the past 34 times during those instances.

Matchup-wise Orlando is the more talented team. They have the best frontcourt player in Nikola Vucevic and a huge backcourt advantage.
Throw in a huge situational spot for the Magic and it's worth laying this number.
The Magic are desperate to end their 10-game losing streak and five-game home losing skid. Orlando is better than its 15-37 record with Vucevic, Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris and Elfrid Payton. The Lakers can't match that young talent.
On Thursday, the Magic addressed their underachieving ways by firing coach Jacque Vaughn and his young assistant coaches. A coaching change usually brings short term positive results especially one needed as much as this.
Interim coach James Borrego, who is 37, will be anxious to prove himself now that he has a chance. It's probably not a coincidence the Magic made the coaching move right before playing the Lakers, who have lost eight in a row on the road and 11 of their past 12 overall games. The Lakers' morale can't be too good after blowing a late six-point lead in regulation during their last game falling in overtime to the Bucks on the road. That loss had to sting Lakers coach Bryon Scott, who doesn't like Bucks coach Jason Kidd. The feud stems from when Scott coached Kidd when they were with the Nets.  
Orlando has added incentive because the Lakers blew them out earlier this season. The Lakers likely won't be nearly as motivated coming off the matchup versus Kidd's Bucks and with a national TV game coming up next against LeBron James and the Cavaliers on Sunday.
The Magic have been competitive in their last two games against far superior competition going against the Thunder and Spurs on the road. They lost to both of these teams by seven points, covering each game. Now they drop down in class to face the bottom-five Lakers.
 

Oregon State has been one of the biggest overachieving and surprise teams of the season. But while the Beavers are 12-0 at home, they simple lack the depth and offense to lay this many points in a Pac-12 matchup. Some regression has happened. More should follow.
The Beavers are last in the Pac-12 in scoring at 54.6 points per game and last in offensive efficiency. Their point total goes down to 45.6 a game if you factor just Pac-12 matchups.
They have just a seven man rotation, which is starting to wear thin. None of their top seven players are shooting 50 percent.
Washington State is playing better defense, does a good job of getting to the free throw line, has two excellent key players and is off a confidence-building 89-88 win against Stanford this past Saturday that halted a four-game losing streak.
The Cougars' 6-foot-10 forward Josh Hawkinson is one of only two players in the conference to average a double-double scoring 15.1 points per game and a Pac-12-best 10.8 rebounds. Senior guard Davonte Lacy averages 17.7 points per game and has scored 49 points in his last two games.
 

Sandwich spot here for Duke. The Blue Devils are off a huge road win against Virginia and then host Notre Dame on Saturday in a huge revenge game. 

Georgia Tech's record is misleading. The Yellow Jackets have lost seven ACC games by seven points or less, including falling to North Carolina State by one point in overtime on a 3-pointer at the buzzer in their last game. In their previous game, they upset Miami on the road winning by 20 points.

Georgia Tech is a proven road commodity covering 12 of its last 16 away matchups. Duke is just 4-10-2 ATS in its last 16 ACC games. 

The Trail Blazers are 2-8 SU and ATS in their last 10 games and have lost three in a row. This skid is not deceiving. The Trail Blazers are not playing well.
It's too big a leap of faith to believe the Trail Blazers can just turn it on here and bury the Jazz.
Utah is 6-6 in its last 12 road games. The Jazz have covered 10 of their last 14 road contests. They are loose, feel no pressure and are off a confidence-building 110-100 home victory over powerful Golden State. That game was back on Friday so the Jazz have had plenty of time to come down from that high while preparing for this matchup. The Jazz have had good point spread success in Portland covering seven of the past 10 times there.
Portland is down two big men with Robin Lopez and to a much lesser extent Joel Freeland both being out. The Jazz have a physical, tall front line that's helped them post nearly a plus nine rebounding margin per game during the last five games.
LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard are Portland's two best players. The team has a weak bench. Aldridge is holding up so far, but the heavy minutes he's been playing have caught up to Lillard as we near All-Star break. The point guard is shooting just 33 percent from the floor during the last 10 games.
This is Portland's first home game since Jan. 24. The Trail Blazers have a bigger game on deck hosting Phoenix Thursday. Utah has been idle since Friday so it's a good spot, too, for the Jazz.