Time to speak the truth, Pac-12 basketball sucks and there is ample discussion at this time that this power conference might only send its tournament champ to the Big Dance. However, put a point spread on a game and that changes the dynamics. Washington visits Salt Lake City and the Huskies have been altered from a Pick to a two-point road favorite. Washington is an ordinary shooting team but plays good defense. The Utes are only a .500 team but they have shot the ball better lately and earned a road split in Arizona, covering both games. With Utah 5-1 SU at home and the Huskies only 2-4 SU and ATS away from Seattle, it's the Utes outright. 

San Antonio is playing outstanding basketball and is 16-4 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 the last 2 seasons. Spurs Win! 

No comparison in talent and experience between Denver and South Dakota State. Jackrabbits by at least 20. 

After losing three in a row, Boston has won seven of nine (7-2 ATS), including four in a row. Miami had a similar stretch leading up to Christmas at 7-2 (8-1 ATS), but since Santa Claus returned to the North Pole, the Heat have cooled off at 3-4 (3-3-1 ATS). NBA bettors have jumped on the C's and pushed from -1 to -2.5. There is a case to be made for choosing the Heat since they are 18-5 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite. Nevertheless, the Celtics are 14-2 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more and if you the C's like I do, the SU winner of a Boston game is 29-0 ATS the last two months. 

Hofstra is a real solid club and one the best bets in CBB this season at 12-3 ATS and 6-0 ATS on the road like they are in this contest. Hofstra by 6. 

Play On home teams as a favorite (FAIRFIELD) scoring 67-74 PPG, against a weaker offensive team (63-67 PPG), after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games. Teams like the Stags are 46-16 and they win by 9. 

#532 Jazz -9

Line is juiced because Orlando is in a very tough scheduling spot, which is why this is not a higher rated play. No matter from the spread perspective, the Jazz by 12 or more. 

#820 Arkansas +2

Seen Florida enough to know they are just another SEC team. Arkansas almost always plays well at home and catching points is a bonus against a Gators team who has not played a true road game since their season opener nearly two months ago. The Hogs outright! 

#816  Syracuse -3

Clemson relies on taking good shots and connects on over 48 percent of them, while being a good rebounding team at the same time. Syracuse doesn't shoot well, but its tenacious 2-3 zone is as tough as ever and they get just enough offense to keep winning. Hoops bettors are not sold on the Orange having a great advantage at the Carrier Dome over the Tigers and have lowered the 'Cuse from -5 to -3. Look for the Syracuse zone to give Clemson too much trouble and the Tigers slip to 1-10 ATS in January road games. 

#782  Georgia -1.5

The Bulldogs are off one of their worst losses in decades at Tennessee. Back home and wanting to rebound after shooting 32%, Georgia comes to play and beats Vandy by at least 5. 

#62 Vegas -270 ML

The Golden Knights have won six straight and the Rangers are 1-12 away after a road loss by three or more goals. 

#511 Kings -3

Sacramento is much improved and that shows by them being 12-3 ATS playing against a team with a losing record this season. Kings by 6 over Suns. 

#636  Evansville +6

I always inspect Evansville as a home underdog as they have been very good to me over the years and the Aces are 11-3 ATS off a road loss. A two-point game either way with Loyola-Chic. 

#52 Capitals -205 ML

The Caps are back home and 19-3 having lost three of four. The Flyers are 5-15 playing their 3rd game in 5 days this season. 

#612  Bowl. Green -3.5

The Falcons are 7-0 and 5-0 ATS at home while Ohio U. is 1-4 and 0-5 ATS on the road. With the total at 143 the Bobcats are 0-7 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season. Bowling Green by 7. 

#629 Ball State -12

The Cardinals can shoot and score, with Eastern Mich. is 1-9 ATS this season and 0-6 ATS as a road underdog of 10 or more points late. Ball State by 17. 

This we get, Alabama will score on Clemson. They are too talented offensively not to with this may be the best Crimson Tide offensive team ever and certainly the finest during the Nick Saban era. However, the Crimson Tide will not go up and down the field all night on the Tigers, who will generate a lot of pressure and stall Bama drives more than they are accustomed too.

Clemson will ring up points as both teams have talented quarterbacks who deliver the ball on time and hit receivers accurately where they can catch the pigskin and run. The Tigers are capable of being just as explosive and there are a few holes Clemson can exploit in the Tide's secondary. This is what makes the total of OVER 58 attractive for college football picks.

Concerning the side going with Clemson at +6, because of the depth of their defensive line to create havoc and their ability to make big plays on offense. Clemson 33-31.

This we get, Alabama will score on Clemson. They are too talented offensively not to with this may be the best Crimson Tide offensive team ever and certainly the finest during the Nick Saban era. However, the Crimson Tide will not go up and down the field all night on the Tigers, who will generate a lot of pressure and stall Bama drives more than they are accustomed too.

Clemson will ring up points as both teams have talented quarterbacks who deliver the ball on time and hit receivers accurately where they can catch the pigskin and run. The Tigers are capable of being just as explosive and there are a few holes Clemson can exploit in the Tide's secondary. This is what makes the total of OVER 58 attractive for college football picks.

Concerning the side going with Clemson at +5.5, because of the depth of their defensive line to create havoc and their ability to make big plays on offense. Clemson 33-31.

San Antonio as a team has found their groove and is really playing well. Detroit is off a loss in which they lead by 18 at home to Utah. The situation also fits with the Spurs 13-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 and the Pistons at 20-40 ATS when the line is +3 to -3.

Philadelphia as the Super Bowl champs will get a shot at defending their title. Nick Foles is once again working his late season magic and the Eagles have won five of six with the only loss at Dallas in OT.  The Philadelphia defense was in shambles after its secondary was wiped out. Coach Doug Pederson and his defensive coordinator decided there was only so much they could do. Philadelphia made a full commitment to stop stopping the run and on obvious passing downs did everything they could to help their depleted secondary with a pass rush and blitzing and they found ways to win.

The Bears are for real and as aggressive offensively and defensively as any team in the league thanks to coach Matt Nagy. The Chicago defense was No.1 in points allowed and No.3 in points allowed. On offense, Nagy understood the strengths and weaknesses of all his players and built an offense that was not total around QB Mitchell Trubisky, but about all the components and asked his QB to just execute.

While the Philadelphia story is compelling, this Chicago team is the best one playing this weekend and they handle they send the Eagles packing and win cover the spread.

#816 George Mason -5.5

St. Bonnies winless on the road, losing by over 13 PPG and George Mason 18-5 ATS in home games after allowing 60 points or less two straight contests. 

There is something about Philip Rivers on the road as compared to at home that is different. There is a level of prickliness that stands out and he's edgier and even more combative. A rather strong case was being made that the Chargers were the best team in the AFC until they lost to Baltimore two weeks ago. Now, we get to take the Bolts away from home, where they are 7-1 SU and ATS in true road games and have quick, turnaround revenge in their favorite role. If you had told me Baltimore would have 467 yards of offense, including 296 yards rushing, with their defense against Cleveland, that sounds like a 17-point win over the Browns. Instead, the Baltimore barely hung on to win the AFC North. Twice, Baker Mayfield threw for over 300 yards on the Ravens and the L.A. Chargers coaches need to go to school on this, which is make quick reads and throws towards the near sidelines and use misdirection to connect down the middle of the field to soften up the Baltimore defense. Could not be more impressed with the job John Harbaugh did in transitioning the Ravens offense, however, Chargers familiarity will help and Baltimore is 0-6 ATS after allowing seven points or less in the first half of two straight games.

#804  Marquette -7.5

Xavier not the same team this year, Marquette off a bad loss and the Golden Eagles 10-0 and 8-2 ATS at home winning by 19.9 PPG. 

Duke by 20

Pistons win by 1.

Florida wins by 15.

Kent State by 9

Arkansas wins by 2.

South Florida loses by just 2.

Just four weeks ago Indianapolis went into Houston and defeated them 24-21, one week after an ugly 6-0 loss at Jacksonville. The Colts arrive back in H-Town wholly confident, being just the third NFL team since the Super Bowl era to start 1-5 and make the playoffs. Andrew Luck has been the catalyst, but first-year coach Frank Reich deserves a great deal of credit along with the GM in building an offense that Luck is most comfortable in, which features tight ends a great deal.

Houston started 0-3, then on a 9-0 tear before closing 2-2 to win the AFC South. QB Deshaun Watson has been less dynamic than he was in his rookie season, coming back from knee surgery. The Texans offense had a tendency to run hot and cold and that cannot happen against Indy or Houston is done. On defense, the Texans were 5th in fewest points but were 29th in red zone defense.

With all the bad luck the Texans have endured with injury's over at least six years, it would a nice story to finally see them win. But the Colts are riding a 9-1 streak, have the better quarterback and at this moment are the better team. The call here is with the Colts. 

Evansville loses by just 2.

Samford by 10

#544 Blazers +1

This is strictly a trendy bet. OKC is 7-20 ATS against division foes, while Portland is 15-5 ATS at home vs. those same division opponents. Toss in the Blazers are 11-1 ATS at home after three or more consecutive Under's, winning by 10.7 PPG and the home team is my play. 

I like Washington in this spot, being 17-3 off two straight losses and 6-0 with same season revenge. 

#533  Magic +5

Orlando is playing better again at 3-1 SU and ATS, while Minnesota has the opposite record in the same span. The Magic are an excellent 11-5 ATS on the road and  7-0 ATS in away games after playing a road game this season. 

#662 Memphis -6.5

Tigers are like the football team, they score a lot and give up a lot. Wichita State is really down this year and cannot shoot. Memphis by 11.

#614 Detroit +5

Detroit makes 10  three's a game, hangs around and is 10-3 ATS. Grab the points.

#686 Furman -7.5

High quality club at their level and they are 14-5 ATS vs. losing teams, beating them by over 16 PPG. 

While Kansas has tremendous talent, Oklahoma has a matching record because they have played more like a team, which is why I will forecast the Sooners stay in the game. Oklahoma is also 9-1 ATS vs. winning teams and comes up short by 5 or less. 

Loyola-Chicago's offense has been all over the place in recent games, either very hot or chilly. Indiana State has a more stable offense and scores more easily than the Ramblers. The magic of last year is gone for Loyola and they are 4-13 ATS at home after a combined score of 125 points or less in two straight games. The Sycamores lose by 4 or less. 

Dallas has been terrible on the road at 2-14 SU, but oddsmakers only have them at this spread in part because they feel they are the better team and the Mavs are 10-3 SU and ATS at Charlotte. The Mavericks pick up a third road win! 

We all know about Urban Meyer leaving and supposedly the players want to win the Rose Bowl for the coach. However, Washington will have a say in how this plays out. With Ohio State's offense back at full throttle, the Huskies will not be able to match points. Buckeyes win 35-24.

The first game of the new year features two excellent defensive clubs, who do a great job in limiting points. Mississippi State is 9-3 UNDER this year and 11-2 UNDER after two straight wins by 17 or more points.

N.C. State has the No.6 passing game in the country, yet struggles to run, making them one dimensional. Texas A&M has a better-balanced offense, plays better defense and faced a tougher schedule, making them the play.

#566 Spurs +1.5

San Antonio on 10-2 ATS run, and is 14-5 and 13-6 ATS at home, also being 4-1 SU and ATS as a home underdog.

All indicators are Northwestern is not as good as their 8-5 record. Nonetheless, the Wildcats hang around and are 6-0 ATS after being outgained by 125 or more total yards in their last game.

#762  Idaho State 

I'm not saying the line is wrong, but no way I'm backing Eastern Washington at 1-10 ATS. 

#754  Providence -2.5

Love that Creighton has shot over 60 percent in back to back games. Friars by 6. 

Michigan State has the better defense but also has an unproductive offense. Oregon can score and move the chains but are they tough enough to win in the trenches on both sides of the ball? We will say no and Sparty wins the game.

The Cleveland and Baltimore game is more interesting than most realize. Yes, the Ravens just need a victory to win the AFC North and they are on a real roll at 5-1 SU and are at home. But just the opening spread of the Browns at +5 at Baltimore tells us Cleveland is here to play. The outcome of this matchup will really come down to the Cleveland defense and winning on third down. If they can force Lamar Jackson into third and longs more than half the time, they will have chances. Unfortunately, Baltimore believes in themselves and are confident, especially on defense. They will cause Mayfield in a couple bad decisions and take care of the rest. The Ravens by 10.

By all accounts, Detroit has given up and scored 15 PPG in their last nine starts. With the Lions 2-10 ATS versus teams averaging 5.65 or more yards a play in the second half of the season since 2016, it's Green Bay by double digits.

Houston has let the No.2 seed in the AFC slide away twice. A loss against lowly Jacksonville will be would cost them the division and a home game next week. The Texans finally step up against a Jaguars team that is 4-18 ATS after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game. Houston by 10.

#543 Denver -4.5

Nuggets are 10-0 ATS after 2 or more Under's this season, while when the Suns are on the back end of playing two straight nights, they are losing by 14.3 PPG. Denver by at least 10. 

#650 Seton Hall -3

I think St. John's is a phony 12-0 (4-8 ATS) and they are 2-12 SU and ATS at Seton Hall. 

Simple deduction, this comes down to Alabama making three more stops, turnovers or making special teams plays. The Crimson Tide do this and that is a difference of 13 to 17 points against an overmatched Oklahoma defense. All Alabama has to do from there is hold a slight edge. The Tide rolls 52-31.

#533  Rockets 

Harden carrying Houston and New Orleans just playing mediocre basketball and they are 1-5 SU and ATS with nor rest. Rockets by 6. 

As good as the Clemson defense is, the secondary is vulnerable if the opposing team has time to pass and the quarterback is on target. Ian Book is an accurate thrower and Notre Dame has the receivers to make plays and often big ones. Defensively, the Fighting Irish can rush the passer and if they can make QB Lawrence jittery in the pocket, that can affect his accuracy. Look for Notre Dame to stay in the game, put pressure on the Tigers, who end up escaping by 7 or less.

#632  Ariz. State 

Arizona State proved how good they were last week in beating Kansas and they are a legit Top 20 club. With their speed and quickness, they handle a Princeton team that is 1-10 ATS of late. 

#824  Loyola- Marymount -7

This team is 11-2 and just suffered an ugly loss to UC-Riverside. Loyola comes back focused and ready and wins by at least 12. 

Iowa State is not going to be intimidated by Washington State passing offense playing in the Big 12. The Cougars might not be sharp from the outset looking to overcome the disappointment of not playing for the Rose Bowl. With Mike Leach 3-8 ATS as bowl favorite, take the Cyclones and consider the UNDER with two good defensive clubs.

#514  Pacers - 6.5

Pacers are solid  23-11 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and all three of my power ratings have them winning by 9 or more. 

A bit late to the party for value, but still like this game. West Virginia failed to win the Big 12 and now will be without starting QB Will Grier who is moving on to the NFL. This is Syracuse's first bowl game in five years and could win 10 games for the first time since 2001. Add in Dana Holgorsen is 0-5 ATS as a bowler and the Orange sold all their tickets for this Orlando bowl and it's the 'Cuse who cover.

Minnesota played better defensively in their last three games, but Purdue, Northwestern and Wisconsin do not come anywhere close to matching the kind of speed Georgia Tech has on offense. Add in it how difficult it is to simulate the option offense the Yellow Jackets use and you can see Georgia Tech just wearing the Golden Gophers down. From what I understand the Jackets players like their coach Paul Johnson and they will look to send him into retirement a winner. With Georgia Tech 7-0 ATS against teams allowing 5.9 or more yards a play, make it the Rambling Wreck by 10. 

The opening NBA odds had this primetime Pacific Division battle at 234.5. With this high a total that would suggest Golden State would dictate the tempo because of their offensive prominence. The Warriors are third in the league in scoring at over 115 PPG, though the Los Angeles Lakers are not that far behind, ranked 9th, at a touch beyond 113 PPG.

At this point, we don't need to rehash the principle players in the game, because we all know who they are. What we have to keep in mind is that LeBron, Steph, Kevin and Draymond all relish the spotlight and they will do go all out to shine like stars. If the Lakers expect to stay in this contest, they will have to keep the score down, because chances are they not going to hang with Golden State unless James has 50 for the Lakers. With the Lakers on a 19-7 UNDER roll, going to back the lower score.

Boston has moved on from a three-game losing streak. At home the Celtics are still 10-5 and 9-6 ATS, winning by 8.5 PPG. Philly is 6-9 and 5-10 ATS on the road losing by 5 PPG. With the C's 12-3 ATS at home vs. division opponents the last two seasons, they win by 9. 

After scoring only 50 points on their three-game road trip, there is general media consensus that New Orleans will return home and just keep scoring 38 PPG like they did before they left the Big Easy. While the Saints might not score 16 PPG, Dallas provided the blueprint to limiting Drew Brees and the Saints by doubling Michael Thomas, stop the run on early downs and read the keys to understand when screen plays are coming. 

Pittsburgh had a gut check victory over nemeses New England last week but to keep a hold of first place in the AFC North, they could use another upset. The Steelers run defense has been improved in last three contests,  but their pass defense against teams that have what would be deemed as a professional NFL quarterback remains an issue. Pitt has to pressure Brees up the gut.  On offense, Pittsburgh does not have to run for 5 YPC, just stay on schedule at 3 to 4 to keep the chains moving and let Ben Roethlisberger do the rest.

It's hard to ignore just how good the Saints have been and they are 10-2 ATS at home off two road wins, but something is a little off and Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS this season after surrendering 99 or fewer rushing yards.

Minnesota's impressive win over Miami keeps them in the playoff hunt. Last week the Vikings ran the ball and mixed in the pass. Detroit has gotten better and against the run, but as long as Minnesota just gets three to four yards running, their passing offense can generate big plays. Detroit is averaging 15.6 PPG of late, with Matthew Stafford not playing well and not getting much help. Motivated Vikings move to 17-5 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record and win by 9.

Green Bay's season ends next week but it turns out they have motivation. The last Packers team to go winless on the road was in 1958 and that is all Aaron Rodgers and other players have been talking about, not wanting to be the first 0-8 Green Bay team away from home. It won't be easy, but it's the Pack by 7. 

Jacksonville is a complete disaster and I don't see how or why they play well at Miami. The Dolphins are not good, but they are 6-1 SU and ATS at home. The Jags have covered one game since October and it will not be two as they lost by 7 to 10 points. 

Hawai'i can score and but they are not very good on defense. Louisiana Tech is solid defensively but has issues on offense. To date in the bowls, the majority of teams with better offenses have won the bowls before Christmas and look for that to continue. I'm well aware of Skip Holtz's record as an underdog, but I don't see the Bulldogs matching points. Hawai'i by 5.

One cannot help but begin to wonder if the Los Angeles Chargers are a team of destiny, at least on the AFC side. Kansas City's defense makes them seem beatable and New England, Houston and Pittsburgh all have flaws. In terms of completeness, the Chargers have a better team than any of these clubs and as we have seen against the Steelers and against the Chiefs last week, a Philip Rivers team is NEVER out of a game. Baltimore is resembling college team with how they are running the ball. The Ravens are averaging 230.8 YPG rushing in winning four of their last five since Lamar Jackson has taken over at quarterback. And it's not just the yards but the commitment to running, with an unheard of 46+ rushing attempts to per game over this stretch. Coach John Harbaugh appears to be borrowing from former Ravens coach Brian Billick, who went to Trent Dilfer at QB in 2000 and relied on his defense and running game to win a Super Bowl. I think the Chargers win, but impossible to ignore Baltimore is 18-7-4 ATS in road games vs. a team with a winning home record and the visitor is 4-1 ATS in recent meetings.

#726  South Dakota St. -7.5

South Dakota is an excellent team, especially on offense and is not bad on defense either. Montana has not played well on the road (1-5 ATS) and lacks its usually potent offense. The Jackrabbits by 11 or more. 

#662  Miss. State -13

The Bulldogs are legit and 9-2 ATS after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games. Wright State is 1-8 ATS away after two straight games where they made 10 or more 3-point shots. Miss. State by 17.

#521 Nuggets +1.5

Denver has won four straight and has been a momentum club this year, with a 15-5 ATS mark off two or more wins. Nuggets outright.

Army's formula is simple, get to the edges to create big plays against Houston defense that tackles poorly and is undisciplined. Once the Black Knights establish the outside run, they can use misdirection and run the ball in the A-gaps for big plays also. The Cougars gave up 401 rushing yards to Memphis to close out the regular season and allowed well over 900 yards over the last three games. The Cougars have speed but Army has discipline which is why they have only given up 18 PPG. Houston has lacked mental toughness all year and loses by 13.

Sharp football bettors thought oddsmakers made an egregious error on the total of the Armed Forces Bowl and dropped it from 67.5 all the way down to 59.5. Since Tuesday, the number has come up a little to 60. Because of Houston's quick-strike ability and just pathetic tackling defense, the oddsmakers made a higher total. Bettors are looking at Army's No.1 time of possession offense and them permitting only 18 PPG and thought differently. While the opening total probably was too high, this adjustment is too large. Houston's defensive players allowed 36 points and 522 yards to a below average Navy squad that runs a similar offense. Though Army held Oklahoma to only 28 points this season, they did so by having the pigskin for 87 plays the Cougars defense will wear out long before then. Houston's speed on the perimeter will allow them to make enough large gains throughout the contest. Lastly, keep in mind Army is 20-9 OVER as a favorite and Houston is  17-4 OVER as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Grab the OVER

#631  St. Mary's -1.5

After a slow star,t the Gaels players are now more familiar with each other and playing as a team. Plus, a nice history lesson, St. Mary's is 24-8 ATS as a road favorite of three points or less.  

#687 Ohio State -6

Ohio State should systematically take UCLA apart over 40 minutes and win by 10, being the superior TEAM. 

#624 Nebraska -19

The Huskers are playing superb basketball, they are 18-2 ATS at home the last couple years and 10-2 ATS after allowing 60 points or less. Nebraska by 23. 

The total in Saturday's bowl lid-lifter came down once Tigers leading rusher Darrell Henderson decided to his over 1,900 yards and 22 TD's and call it a college career and is heading to the NFL. From our perspective, we have two defenses conceding more than 31 PPG and two offenses that can generate big plays. Take the OVER.

The T-Wolves are really struggling at home, while the Spurs have gotten into a nice groove on both sides of the court and are playing back to normal at home. Having lost by 29 at Minny 23 days ago, San Antonio is 10-0 ATS revenging a road loss. Spurs by 10. 

Baylor has been a terrible 3-point shooting team thus far and is 1-10 ATS after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less. The Ducks are more consistent on offense, while still being strong defenders and are 12-3 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half of last game the last three seasons. Oregon outright! 

IUPUI is the better offensive and defensive team against Morehead State and is 9-2 ATS having won two of their last three games the last couple of years. The visitor by 5 or more.

With Chicago 1-12 off a win against a division rival and 4-12 off a win by exactly one goal, I'm on Dallas. 

Marshall's run game is ordinary, but the USF defensive front has been lit up way too often over the second half of the season, giving up 220 yards or more six times in the last seven games and getting destroyed for way over 300 in three of those. The Bulls are allowing over five yards per carry. USF lost their starting quarterback and Marshall defense is like attack dogs, with three or more sacks seven times this year, and oh by the way, the Bulls O-Line has permitted 34 sacks. Marshall is 11-2 ATS as a bowler and coach Holliday 5-0 SU and ATS. The Thundering Herd by at least a touchdown. 

The Maple Leafs is 8-1 after playing a game where eight or more total goals were scored and they have quick turnaround revenge from losing to Florida five days ago. 

OKC is 4-13 ATS revenging a straight up loss as a road favorite. Two-point game either way. 

Ohio U. opened as a 4.5-point favorite, but as game time neared, they were down to -3 or -2.5, depending on the sportsbooks. There is a belief that San Diego State's No.4 run defense will really slow Ohio's No.9 running game. With the Aztecs having allowed 214 yards to the Air Force and 199 yards to UNLV on the ground, I'm less convinced and I'll give points, especially at -3 or less. 

The Rockets can score and defend, while Cornell is 4-14 ATS after one or more wins the last three seasons. 

Samford is a good squad (10-1 ATS) and Tennessee is off two big emotional wins over Gonzaga and Memphis and plays flat to win by 15.

There might be more talented teams than the Sooners, but right now, no team is playing together more as a unit on both ends of the floor. Oklahoma will break down the Creighton defense and force them to take tough shots. Okie by 10. 

Iknow the oddsmakers have Missouri State favored, but I cannot back a team that is 0-6 SU and ATS on the road and 2-10 ATS as a road favorite the last three seasons. The Red Wolves outright. 

The Nets have won five straight and are on 6-0 ATS run. What takes me off them is they have shot 51% or higher in three straight contests and unless you are Golden State, that does not keep happening especially when you are at 45% for the season. Super System: Play On road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA LAKERS) after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half, against opponent after scoring 100 points or more in two straight games. (23-4 ATS, 85.2%) Lakers by 6.

Siena is giving up over 50% on shot attempts and Charleston values possessions and makes almost 47% of attempts. Super System: Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Siena after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season are 13-35 ATS in this spot. Charleston by 9.

As the season has played out for the Dolphins, they are more lucky than good. When reviewing point differentials, here is what we mean. Here are the point differentials of the AFC's 7-6 teams.

Baltimore +80 - Indianapolis +49 - Miami -55

The Dolphins very negative number is closest to Atlanta and Tampa Bay at -51, who are 4-9 and 5-8 respectively. The Fins wins have been by an average of +5.4 PPG and their losses by -15.5 PPG.

Minnesota is far from perfect, yet, we find the Vikings are 14-5 ATS after a road loss and 14-5 ATS vs. the AFC. Miami, they are 0-7 ATS after allowing 375 or more total yards in four consecutive games. Let's grab the Vikes who win by 10 or more. 

With Green Bay averaging barely over 20 PPG on the road and Chicago permitting only 19 PPG anywhere they play, the total in this NFC Norris Division rivalry (Chris Berman reference) has fallen like the temps in the Windy City from 46.5 to 44.5. Over the weekend the total went back up to 46 I'm not seeing Green Bay with its O-Line problems or Chicago generating enough offense and will take the UNDER. This season when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points and a team like the Packers have lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, the UNDER is a solid 16-8.  

#676 St. Mary's +3

The Gaels are coming out of early season slump and are 7-1 ATS after playing as a favorite. LSU is  2-11 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in five straight games. St. Mary's outright. 

Let's start by saying Appalachian State is the better team, having more speed on defense and being physically stronger on both lines. If former coach Scott Satterfield was going on the sidelines, we would probably have taken App. State. But he took the Louisville job and like the coach at Utah State, they had less than two weeks to sort everything out for preparation. Let's make New Orleans the destination and the Mountaineers could be easily unfocused. Middle Tennessee faced three SEC teams this season and is not going to be intimidated by App. State. Coach Rick Stockstill's son is playing final game at QB, so you know he will be ready. The Blue Raiders are 4-1 ATS as an underdog of 17 points or less and 11-3 ATS after one or more straight up setbacks. Snap up the points.

#636 Toledo -13.5

My numbers have the Rockets winning by 18 to 22.5 points.

Houston has two ways they can go after first loss in 10 games, be angry about it or be meek. I'm thinking the former and their defense has the ability to overwhelm the Jets O-Line. The biggest weakness of the Texans of late is pass defense, but Gang Green is 30th throwing the ball. Despite the Jets winning last week, they were still out-gained by 120 yards. For whatever reason, the Flyboys are 1-10 ATS vs. defenses allowing 260 or more passing yards a game after 8+ contests. Plus, road favorites with a completion percentage of 60% or better, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in three straight games, are 45-18 ATS, winning by 9.9 PPG. Houston by 12.