At this early point in the season, neither Chicago’s or Green Bay’s offense is clicking, for different reasons. The Bears simply aren’t that capable offensively and new QB Mike Glennon is really struggling. The Packers are VERY capable normally, but with so many key injuries already, they look nothing like the unit that closed last season. QB Aaron Rodgers seems to be under intense pressure every time he drops back. All of this leads me to believe that Thursday night’s game figures to be a defensive hard fought battle. The defenses should rule the day, despite their “averageness” as this system indicates: Play Under against the total in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG). The record of the system is 152-92 over the last 5 seasons. On top of that, these teams have gone under the total in seven of the L9 they have played at Lambeau Field, with the Bears averaging 12.2 PPG. Let’s go with the UNDER on TNF.

In looking at Texas' season, this becomes a very important contest to show gains and in this case it means winning. The Longhorns played USC on even terms, but their program does not allow for moral victories and a loss at Iowa State would make new coach Tom Herman's first quarter of the season that much more uncomfortable. With Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State up next, this is 'must win' for Texas. The Cyclones are averaging better than 41 PPG and have the nation's No.18 passing attack at 311.7 YPG, which Texas has been vulnerable to. The key for Iowa State is reaching 28 points, since if they do they are 10-2 ATS the last three seasons. I say they do and might win outright. 

The Houston-Texas MLB contest for Monday sports a total befitting of the teams’ combined offensive potential, along with the hitters’ conditions at the Ballpark in Arlington. However, potential and what is actually happening right now are two different things. The Rangers’ lineup is struggling mightily lately, coming off a 3-game series in which they managed a grand total of 2 runs. Going back even further, looking at the 9-game road trip that they are coming off of, the Rangers scored just 25 runs on 56 hits, not exactly potent. What reason is there to believe the bats are going to wake up tonight against Astros’ RH Collin McHugh, who sports an ERA of 3.44 and WHIP of 1.26 currently. The Astros have also been struggling to plate runs, setting up for a nice system: Play Under - All teams where the total is 10 or higher (HOUSTON) - after 4 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts. System record is 45-18 since 1997. Let’s go with the UNDER in Texas tonight.

There are more than enough bettors that do not believe in Oakland. Even oddsmakers only listed a win total of 9.5 on them coming off a 12-win campaign. Understandably, the Raiders defense has its critics and that will play out over time. Yet, let's look at Washington. Kirk Cousins and his receivers are not only on different pages, they do not appear to be reading the same playbook. The Redskins defense is no better than Oakland's and when in prime time, how does Washington usually play, rather poorly. Derek Carr is not only a rising star, he might be there and not everyone has caught up and he so many weapons even Bush 43 would be impressed. Da Raiders by 10 or more. 

Seattle has one offensive touchdown in two games. Good news, Seattle is 9-0 ATS after scoring 17 or fewer points in two straight outings. Titans RB DeMarco Murray and WR Corey Davis (now Out) are day-to-day with hamstring strains, which could hurt Marcus Mariota in this nonconference clash. Tennessee is alarming 2-10 ATS after gaining six or more YPP in their previous game.

For Atlanta offense, nothing like Packers colors to make Matt Ryan feel confident and find an offensive groove. Falcons fans have to keep fingers crossed Ryan will like playing in Detroit's dome since leading sacker Vic Beasley Jr. has already been declared 'out' with hamstring. The Dirty Birds have a nice 7-3 ATS mark in the Motor City. With the Lions win on Monday night, they made this a far more entertaining matchup. Everyone thought Detroit standing pat defensively was a mistake, after two games that has not been the case. After being just a thrower, Matthew Stafford is now a complete quarterback. In addition, road favorites that outscored opponents by seven or more points a game, after a win by 10 or more points are 4-22 ATS. Detroit outright!

Football bettors, just could not believe their eyes, Cleveland a -2.5 point road favorite and they have been lowered to -1 or a Pick at Indianapolis. The last time the Browns were in this role was 23 away games ago in 2014 (@ Jacksonville, they lost 24-6). While the oddsmakers might be right from talent perspective, typically teams in this spot do not measure up and beat themselves and the Brownies are 1-18 SU on the road of late. 

With a vastly improved offensive line and a still domineering defense, Denver dismantled Dallas. The Broncos head out on the road for initial sojourn and have a good short passing attack that moves the chains with Trevor Siemian as long as the run game is working. Buffalo's offense does not appear to have the tools to slow Denver from reaching 8-0 ATS in September the past three years. Against a better defense like Carolina, we saw the limitations of trading away Sammy Watkins for the Bills, who were nicely positioned to upset the Panthers on last drive. Tyrod Taylor can only do so much and the same is true of LeSean McCoy without downfield passing threat. 

Hard to imagine Stanford could be any more disappointing in losing last two games to USC and San Diego State. Now back home, you know coach David Shaw will be back to the basics and stress fundamentals in preparation for UCLA. The Bruins defense is so bad, UCLA fans are wearing Kesha t-shirts for the song "Praying" as a sign of support and disgust. Quarterback Josen Rosen is doing everything he can to help the team, but no player should have the brunt of responsibility to think they have to lead team to touchdown on every drive or they might lose. I will make the call on the Cardinal, who is 17-4 ATS after losing two of three against the spread and 10-2 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. 

Western Kentucky is nowhere close to the offensive team they were under previous coaches, averaging a mere 20 PPG and they are 1-9 ATS after two straight Under's. If you like that, what about Ball State who is remarkable 32-13 ATS as road underdog since 2007! 

I have been betting the Battle of the Bayou for years, based on this one fact, the visitor is 17-2 ATS. Works for me! 

South Carolina's inability to run the ball and stop the run at home against Kentucky, pinned them with their first loss of the season. That poor showing coupled with losing one of their best wide-outs in Deebo Samuel for the season, has dropped the Gamecocks from -11 to -7.5 against Louisiana Tech. I think this adds tremendous value to South Carolina, as they still have superior size, speed and talent compared to the Bulldogs and at least to this point, this is not usual Louisiana Tech high-scoring team we are used to with 44 total points in past two outings versus FBS competition. South Carolina is 17-5 ATS when hosting FBS foes and is 10-2 ATS at home against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse. The Gamecocks by 14 or more. Grab early before line goes back up. 

For more than one Florida-based team, the three-week layoff is like starting the season completely over and for Florida State, that is especially true having a completely different quarterback in backup turned starter James Blackmon. Returning to action and playing in conference is not a treat, especially against N.C. State, who has a solid defensive front and quarterback in Ryan Finley. The Wolfpack have won last two games and is 8-1 ATS off two or more victories. The Florida State defense is probably going to have to carry the Seminoles until we learn about offense and they are capable of doing so. Florida State is 10-2 when N.C. State visits Tallahassee, but is just 5-7 ATS. 

Arizona runs coach Rich Rodriguez's read option offense and thus far it has been sensational at 328 yards per game, which is good for 4th in the country. Quarterback Brandon Dawkins runs the show and behind him is a very deep stable of running backs, headed by Nick Wilson and J.J. Taylor.

The one better team the Wildcats faced was Houston and the Cougars took away parts of what Rodriguez likes to do and held them to 152 rushing yards on 3.8 yards a carry.

Utah's schedule has not been overly burdensome either, nevertheless, their run defense spearheaded by standout defensive tackle Lowell Lotulelei in the middle of its defensive line, is allowing only 49.3 rushing yards per game, second nationally behind Duke.

Utah has for decades been know for power running game and pedestrian at best passing attack. To date, that has changed under QB Tyler Huntley. The sophomore took the starting job away from incumbent Troy Williams in August and has been masterful as a dual threat in the Utes new more up-tempo scheme implemented by first-year offensive coordinator Troy Taylor.

Besides the strong running attack, Huntley and Utah are averaging 294 YPG via the pass, making them a challenge to stop. Arizona will have to get Huntley out of his comfort zone. Before last week against San Jose State, Utah had been having issues in the red zone, which the Wildcats defense will work to see resurface.

Arizona will be stoked and have offensive moments, but as the game wears on the aggressive Utah defense will keep generating negative plays and force Dawkins to beat them throwing. Huntley and the Utes offense will find weaknesses is the Wildcats defense and pull away to a 12-point victory. 

How do you not take Verlander these days? I'll take a flyer! 

First, Play On AL favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (BOSTON) scoring 4.4 to 4.9 runs/game, against an average AL starter (ERA range of 4.70 to 5.70), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or lower. (114-26, 81.4%, L20Y and 8-0 this season)

Teams like the Red Sox win by 2.5 runs a game in this system and add when Boston is a -200 or higher favorite  this season, they are winning by 3 RPG. 

New England will have a few extra days to contemplate their opening game stunner to Kansas City. Tom Brady struggled on first down passes and a defense with several new moving parts was not close to in sync. Will that could be an issue against Drew Brees in the Big Easy? So much for the improved New Orleans defense that was being talked about in the preseason after they gave 470 yards to Minnesota and reminded people of how Sam Bradford could play five years ago. Great spot for Patriots revival and they are 6-0 ATS after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game and win by double digits.

Tampa Bay finally has their turn to play and they will face Chicago and they have the backing of those betting football, up from -5.5 to -7. What I wonder is as I talked about last week, favorites of a touchdown or more in their first game, since they are not typically a good wager and add in the Bears have already played a game. Plug in Tampa Bay is 0-6-1 ATS as home favorite in Game 1's and teams like Da Bears that had turnover margin of -1 or more a game or worse last season, in conference games are 24-5 ATS.  

Let's be honest, nobody expected to see pair of 2-0 teams when these two SEC partners collide this week. South Carolina was an underdog in both opening games and thanks to QB Jake Bentley and opportunistic defense, the Gamecocks are 2-0 SU and ATS and will play first home game. Coming off a winning season, Kentucky has been less impressive in not covering either victory and they will require more offense to engineer upset. The Wildcats run defense has been terrific in only permitting 58 YPG, but that was against lesser competition, with the pass defense more vulnerable in ranking 98th. I have a system that has the Gamecocks winning by 12. 

Kansas State is facing its toughest task so far on both sides of the ball in Vanderbilt. The improved QB Kyle Shurmur gives Vanderbilt a new element, though he hasn’t faced a defense like Kansas State. Watch the Wildcats sell out to stop RB Ralph Webb and make Shurmur beat him. While Vanderbilt has been impressive early, can hang with an opponent of this caliber? Look for the Commodores to keep it close for a half, but I like K-State to pull away in the second half. Vanderbilt hasn’t beaten an AP ranked non-conference opponent since 1946 (0-18 SU). With K-State 11-3 ATS after allowing nine points or less and 12-2 ATS away after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games, it will be Kansas State by more than a touchdown.

Mississippi State has to not only overcome LSU and it's talent, but those demons in the closet. The Bulldogs are 1-11 and 2-10 ATS in the latest contests played in Starksville between these rivals and even adding more cowbells has not mattered. QB Nick Fitzgerald will need a near perfect game and he's capable if given time and space. The other factor is Mississippi State holding up to the Tigers punishing run offense and not wearing down in the second half. If LSU wants to up their status, this is where they start with domineering road effort. Mississippi State is better than what some believe and with where the line and total are, I have line tracker system that teams like the Bulldogs covering 70% of the time.

The Ducks offense has too much speed for Wyoming and the Cowboys will keep throwing under QB Josh Allen. Cannot see less the 65 points and if one team (WYOMING) has played two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better, in a game involving two squads with a 2.5+ turnovers forced a game, the OVER is 28-4.

Though Notre Dame and Boston College do not meet each other all the time, when they do, it is always intense for this Catholic institutions. In particular for the Eagles, who feel like the little brother in this conflict. Boston College under coach Steve Addazio has been a tough, physical club, that cannot find a quarterback that lift the program. The Eagles are again stunted offensively in averaging 16.5 PPG. The Notre Dame offense was unimpressive versus Georgia, though there defense appears much improved over the last couple seasons. With how both defenses are capable of playing, points will not come easy and besides, B.C. is 7-0 UNDER in home games after scoring 14 points or less and the Irish are 21-9 UNDER away after gaining 100 or less rushing yards.

East Carolina is a bad team and will likely be without their regular starting quarterback. They fired defensive coordinator after two games and by all appearances are a mess. Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points like the Pirates, after allowing 37 points or more last game, against opponent after allowing seven points or less in the first half of two straight games are 8-33 ATS. 

Tonight’s Colorado-Arizona game is the continuation of a potential wild card preview series. The price of it is showing a contest that would seem to be a hot versus not matchup, as the D-Backs are about 21 cents underpriced according to my numbers. The Rockies have come on of late, and the D-Backs have lost three out of four. However, it’s way too premature to suggest that Arizona is cooling off after its torrid stretch of the last few weeks. In fact, I wouldn’t say they’ve cooled at all considering they have scored 20 runs or 5.0 runs per game in this recent 1-3 stretch. Two of the losses just happened to come by a run. For tonight, the D-Backs go with Taijuan Walker, who has been outstanding in his last four starts, allowing two runs in his last 22-2/3 innings for an ERA of 0.79 with 21 K’s in that span. Let’s ride him and Arizona tonight.

Minnesota has been a covering machine the last couple years are 23-10 ATS and 13-4 ATS at home. Even with this, the Vikings offense is still a big question mark in my mind and while Sam Bradford has moments, he has a lot of poor ones also. The offensive line made changes, yet not certain if this amount to real upgrades for Minnesota. New Orleans has been stuck at 7-9 and while they probably are still no better than a .500 club, they are a good matchup against the Vikes. They can both run and throw on the Minnesota defense and while the preseason is not a precursor to future results, the defense, finally, looks improved and if they can create enough third and longs, they know where Bradford will be in the pocket. Saints a heavenly 13-4 ATS as dogs lately.

The first game of a new season can be made too much of, yet for these division partners it means a great deal to start with a W. Scouts are saying Baltimore's No. 7 defense from a year ago should be even better and it might need to with QB Joe Flacco's balky back a real concern, despite coach John Harbaugh insisting Flacco "..will be ready for Cincinnati." The Bengals after five consecutive winning seasons fell to 6-9-1 in 2016 and firmly believe if healthy can win the AFC North and return to playoffs. Andy Dalton has looked comfortable and when his Bengals are home against the Ravens, they are 14-7 SU and 13-8 ATS. Cincy by 9

Are those betting football reading too much into the preseason where Oakland looked poor on defense or are they believing this is a real problem and not willing to over look it even if the Raiders offense is loaded? Oakland has been switched from -1.5 to +3 despite their 11-2 ATS road mark in the AFC. Raiders not among the AFC favorites by mistakes as they win outright!

For my NFL systems, it says that Week 1 non-divisional conference games featuring a road favorite and a total greater than 41 are 22-4 UNDER (84.6%) the total since ’99. Considering that the home teams in this particular system have scored just 14.6 PPG in the 26 contests, it would seem that these teams are home dogs for a good reason…they can’t score. The result is obvious, UNDER’s. Atlanta went OVER the total at a 16-2-1 clip last season. It would be insane to take them under in their first game of week 1, right??? WRONG. According to the system it would be the right thing to do. Let’s look at a key points…1) Chicago is breaking in a new quarterback and will probably be looking to establish the run more to avoid getting into a shootout with the Falcons. 2) Atlanta has a new offensive coordinator after losing Kyle Shanahan to San Francisco. 3) The Falcons typically were able to play faster on turf, the Bears will host this game on grass.  It might get close, but I see this game a low 40’s game, not a high 40’s. Go UNDER

BYU was severely outclassed by LSU in 27-0 whitewashing, gaining a mere 97 yards on offense and never crossing midfield, while being thrashed for 497 yards. The Tanner Mangum of two years ago has disappeared and unless he returns, the Cougars offense will misfire frequently. Utah arrives in Provo with an 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS mark against BYU and low scoring has prevailed with the UNDER 8-2-1. The Utes have Top 30 talent and never have a problem getting up for the Holy War, which we are thrilled is back on again. Plain and simple, Utah has better athletes and BYU lacks perimeter players that can shake loose which does not help Mangum. Utah by 7.

In what could be the first of two matchups between these teams, this will be one of the premier collisions of the Pac-12 campaign. Stanford routed Rice, but USC needed all four quarters to put a away a pesky Western Michigan bunch, as the Trojans were gouged for 263 yards on the ground. If USC permits anywhere close to that many yards rushing again in this contest, they will get beat. The Cardinal are expected to push Washington in the Pac-12 North and might have the horses to do so, with improvement on both sides of the line of scrimmage. What to watch for, the team with the most rushing yards has won 10 of last 11 confrontations. A three-point game either way.

Did you watch Nevada at Northwestern game? They hung in with the Wildcats and made plays on offense as defense. Being home and having crossed key number of 10 (up from 8), I have no problem supporting the Wolf Pack against Toledo club that is 1-7 SU west of the Mississippi River. 

In an evening loaded with great games, this matchup might be the most telling about future results for both squads. Kelly Bryant was ready for first game as new Clemson signal caller, but Kent State is not Auburn. Bryant will have to show poise when under duress and stick with the game plan as the Auburn defense is built to be disruptive and they just held Georgia Southern to 78 total yards. Clemson is only 2-7 ATS in Death Valley versus Top 25 foes since 2007. QB Jarrett Stidham had as good debut for Auburn and now arguably will face the best defense he will see before Alabama. The Tigers from Alabama are 13-4 ATS after rushing for 350+ yards and can engineer upset. 

While I like TCU's squad, for my money Arkansas is a little further along at this point and is not feeling the effects of a rugged SEC season yet ahead. The Horned Frogs have added size in the middle of the defensive line, yet this is not Bret Bielema's old teams, where they would line up and try and turn opponents into ground chuck running the ball. The last couple Razorbacks clubs can throw the ball well (sometimes a little too much), which enhances the ability of the offensive line. TCU's Kenny Hill is just a slightly above average quarterback in my opinion and he will do enough to help and hurt his team in given games. It will be the Hogs by seven or more in Fayetteville.

If this were a bowl game, the sponsor would be Nordstrom's 'Last Chance' outlet stores, because this where coaches Kevin Sumlin and Jim Mora are with their respective schools. Sumlin and Texas A&M probably need a 10-win season for him to keep his job and that could a real challenge considering the division that play in the SEC and that fact they are on fourth different starting QB in four years. Aggies are a sorry 15-35 ATS as road underdogs. After a 4-8 downer year, Mora's UCLA bunch needs to be playing USC for Pac-12 South title in late November or he has job issues. At least he has a quarterback in Josh Rosen and I think that will be enough to carry UCLA to a touchdown or more victory. 

Minnesota might not have a high team batting average, but teams like them know how to close out a series against an ordinary pitcher. Consider, Sunday AL home favorites with a money line of -150 or more, hitting .260 or less as a team, against an average AL starting pitcher (ERA range of 4.70 to 5.70) are 40-8, 83.3%, the last 20 years.

While everyone acknowledges Alabama is the best team in the country to start the season, they do have a couple areas of vulnerability. As great as the Crimson Tide are, a quality quarterback who can throw down the field or move the pocket can have success versus Bama as long as the offensive does the job. Florida State has those components to test the Tide as quarterback Deandre Francois is a fearless leader who can get knocked around and still keep playing. While Alabama is the benchmark of college football, it is not like the Seminoles are new to the grand stage and they will not be intimidated. Any power ranking you design or look at say the same thing, Alabama is a three-point or less favorite over Florida State and I will gladly take the seven points.

Nevada has a new coach, is changing schemes on both sides; that is a lot to work with. Though Northwestern's Pat Fitzgerald is a notorious lousy home favorite, he is just as well known for being an UNDER coach. He is 26-11 UNDER as a home favorite and 29-13 UNDER in nonconference clashes. One more aspect, in September, the Wildcats the last two years are a perfect 8-0 UNDER! 

The Wolfpack have better quarterback, better overall defense and ability to create pressure on defense. N.C. State is 15-5 ATS are a favorites and has hounded nonconference foes to 11-2 ATS mark. 

California has more playmakers on offense and ways to exploit a still questionable UNC defensive front. The Golden Bears defense is not going to turn into Alabama's defense just because they changed coaches and philosophy and the Heels will find the end zone. Fedora's Chapel Hill clubs are only 12-11-1 ATS out of the ACC and despite the 9:20 am start for Cal players, I will take the Bears at +13. 

On the opening night of the college football season, one of my picks for the college football playoff will take on its first challenge as Ohio State travels to Indiana as a 21-point favorite. The Buckeyes have had their problems with the Hoosiers, losing their L6 against the spread in the series. However, Indiana has undergone a ton of changes for 2017, and all six of those competitive games between IU and Ohio State came under Kevin Wilson, who impressed Urban Meyer enough to that Meyer hired him as his new offensive coordinator. Expectations are high in Columbus this season, and they should be, as 15 starters are back for Meyer, including QB JT Barrett and six of the front seven on defense. The last time the Buckeyes brought back that many starters was in 2012, Meyer’s first season with Ohio State. That team finished 12-0. I see the Buckeyes getting off to a strong start, beating the 21-point number.

Heisman Trophy candidate quarterback Mason Rudolph and the best receiver in college football James Washington play of Oklahoma State. The offensive line is versatile and experienced. They have the pass-blocking skills to afford Rudolph the time to find an open receiver and open holes for RB Justice Hill and other Oklahoma State backs. Defensively, the Cowboys were 82nd nationally against the run a year ago and are breaking in new defensive tackles, but do return MLB Chad Whitener and they have two stellar safeties. Okie State under coach Mike Gundy's 35-19 ATS record as home favorite, winning by 22.6 PPG.

Oklahoma State has the better team, they also have a distinct edge at quarterback. Plus, favorites of 10.5 to 21 points like the Cowboys, who scored 35 or more points a game last season, playing in a nonconference contest between two teams from FBS football, are 23-4 ATS since 2007, winning by an average of 22.7 PPG.

The Angels are hopeful that Mike Trout can return to the lineup today from his stiff neck injury. Either way, and considering the Halos have put back-to-back wins together without him, they are underpriced today against the Athletics. Oakland has been one of the worst road teams in the majors this season, 21-43 right now. They are also taking on a L.A. team that is right in the thick of the playoff chase, and one that has dominated lesser foes in late season games at home recently: LA ANGELS are 19-4 in home games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was LA ANGELS 5.6, OPPONENT 3.3. Parker Bridwell, today’s Angels’ starter, is in the midst of a nice rookie season and has demonstrated great control while going 7-2. He is a solid choice with the Angels today.

Two of the best pitchers in the American League go head-to-head tonight in New York when the Yankees’ Luis Severino squares off with the Indians’ Corek Kluber. The Yankees are a -110 home favorite and while I don’t think that line is an egregious miss by oddsmakers, I do feel that Cleveland as an underdog with Kluber on the hill is tough to pass up. Let’s quickly look at the basics for each team of late. The Indians are a a bit hotter having won four straight games, their bats have been a bit more lively of late having pounded out 51 hits over the L4 games, and their bullpen has been a bit better than the Yankees, not only lately but all season long. Look at this trend showing how Cleveland tends to ride hot streaks: FRANCONA is 33-11 against the money line after 2 straight wins by 4 runs or more as the manager of CLEVELAND. Kluber has been dominant, seemingly for the last 3-1/2 years. He is as good as underdog as you can get.

Charley Strong landed on feet after being fired at Texas, taking over South Florida, who off an 11-2 (8-5 ATS) campaign, is ranked 19th in the AP Poll and is the favorite to win the AAC. The Bulls feature quarterback Quinton Flowers, who is a tremendous athlete and can destroy defensive containment. USF averaged 285.3 yards per game on the ground (5th nationally), thus, it is not a stretch to think they will reach 300+ rushing yards against San Jose State run defense that was 122nd last year and has holes in the defensive front seven. Toss the hard to figure 3-3-5 and 4-2-5 multiple defenses South Florida will use and it sure seems like a big victory. If this was not South Florida's first game with Strong as coach, I could see the Bulls being disinterested. But that is not case and with Strong's defensive background, he will be watching Bulls players for running to the ball and gang-tackling. When thinking about college football picks, look for Flowers to pile up the rushing yards, San Jose State to wear down and falter in the second half, as the Bulls run wild and win by 27. 

Let's not complicate this, Z. Greinke and the D-Backs are 22-5 playing against a team with a losing record, winning by 2.0 RPG. Next, in his career Greinke 23-3 at home vs. a NL team with an on-base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season, winning by 2.5 RPG. (Team's Record) With a great history against better San Francisco teams than this one, Arizona wins by at least two runs.

Been thinking about this game for days. I expect Seattle to get off to a very fast start this season and looked very strong thus far and are 15-4 ATS after two or more consecutive wins against the spread and are 10-2 ATS in home games after allowing 14 points or less  in last game. Kansas City surprised me last week, but they still are 18-40 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. Have to do this one, Seattle by 10. 

New England is the defending champions do not need to worry about winning, but with how competitive Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are, you know they will want to win after being 0-2 SU. Besides, Detroit has largely accomplished their preseason goals and I cannot fathom the Patriots being 0-3 in the preseason and not covering one spread. 

Carolina has gone from a Pick to -1.5 in this conflict of .500 clubs. I happen to agree with line move as I expect the Panthers to be real contenders again in the NFC South and they have the better overall team. Carolina wins against Tennessee last week except for 3-0 turnover deficit. Cam and 'Cats win by a touchdown.

Because NFL Preseason stats and trends aren’t broadcast that widely, it’s very quietly known that Philadelphia has won and covered its L8 home games in the exhibition season, including last week versus Buffalo. In all of those contests, the Eagles were favored by between 3 & 4 points. Going back a bit further, they are 11-1 SU and 10-1-1 ATS in their L12. Furthermore, in the three games during that 12-game stretch in which the line moved towards the host Eagles, they are a perfect 3-0 SU & ATS with a winning margin of 23.7 PPG. For tonight’s game, the line opened at Philly -3, now it sits at -3.5. Naturally, the QB edge goes to the hosts as well, with starting QB Carson Wentz figuring to see a lot of action with backup Nick Foles sidelined. The Dolphins of course go with Jay Cutler & Matt Moore. Cutler also figures to see a lot of time as he acclimates himself to his new team. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a relatively easy Eagles win.

Frankly, it was a miracle the Dodgers lost last night. This is still the best team in baseball and they are 49-15 playing against a team with a losing record this season. Add in their starter Hyun-Jin Ryu  30-8 playing against a team with a losing record in his career (Team's Record) and L.A. is the play.

No idea what Tom Koehler is still doing as a starting pitcher and that is why the Jays lose to Rays today. 

I was perplexed to see this total in AL action sink from 9 to 8.5. Both offenses have been ringing up 5.5 or more RPG of late and each starting pitchers have been troubling in exact situations. Boston's Doug Fister (2-6, 5.56) struggles in the traveling gray's with a 7.27 ERA on the road. Cleveland's Carlos Carrasco (12-5, 3.76) has thrown much better in his past two outings after a bumpy stretch, yet has a 4.80 ERA at home and against the Red Sox checks in at an unsightly 6.43. With Carrasco 25-11 OVER as a home favorite the last few years, I'll grab the OVER. 

Brew Crew have won six of seven, as its offense has perked up recently in scoring 5.9 runs a contest. Brewers starter Zach Davies is 7-0 on the road with an impressive 2.52 ERA and the team has won nine of his 12 away outings. We know how dreadful the Giants have been all year and they are 22-41 vs. a NL team with an on-base percentage .325 or worse this season. Milwaukee continues winning ways. 

Neither Mike Leake or Ivan Nova have been pitching well of late, but I do like Nova and the Bucs are 8-2 at home and Leake is 13-28 in road games vs. a NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season. (Team's Record) 

Danny Salazar of Cleveland has been on fire since returning from the disabled list on July 22nd. In five starts since, he has gone 32-1/3 innings striking out 46 hitters while allowing just 5 earned runs. His ERA during that stretch is just 1.39 and his WHIP is a minuscule .835. Even still, the Indians only earned him two wins during that stretch. Today, he and the sizzling Indians finish off a set against Kansas City and are moderately priced at -154 as a favorite. That seems a low price to pay for as good as Salazar has been in combination with the Indians winning eight of their L9 games. The bullpen and bats have also been stellar of late and historically, under Francona, when Cleveland is on a roll, it stays on a roll: FRANCONA is 31-10 (+18.9 Units) against the money line after 2 straight wins by 4 runs or more as the manager of CLEVELAND. Let’s go with the Tribe today.

Tampa Bay has been in a real rut offensively, averaging 2.2 runs per contest going into Saturday. Today we will have a precise indication of just how bad this slump really is when they face Seattle's Yovani Gallardo. The seemingly almost washed up Gallardo is only 31, but he's dropped about 5 MPH on his fastball since his prime with Milwaukee and has a 5.84 ERA. The Rays Blake Snell (4.79 ERA) is not exactly missing a myriad of bats as his 4.89 ERA suggests. With the total at 9.5, my pal Gallardo is 14-4 OVER in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a contest since last year.

One has to believe new head coach Kyle Shanahan wants to change the culture of San Francisco and knows the roster will take longer. That is why he, like many new coaches want to win now, to help set the right tenor for when the regular season starts. Evidently bettors agree and have taken the 49ers from -1 to -3. One aspect I worry about, Denver also has a new coach in Vance Joseph and he has the superior squad and he wants to win also to establish himself and the Broncos are 12-3 ATS as a road underdog of three points or less.

Kansas City put in a rather desultory performance in losing to San Francisco last week 27-17, and was outgained by 247 yards. With Cincinnati winning by 11 in Week 1, the money is follow the Chiefs, who have been flipped from +2 to -3. While I understand the logic, K.C. like Dallas has long placed little value on preseason game outcomes, instead trying to have best roster possible and is 0-7 ATS away off a home loss by 10 or more points.

#951 Cardinals -120 ML

St. Louis offense is hot and has edge in starting pitchers.

Do I really have to explain! Dodgers steamrolling. 

Cubs offense scoring, Quintana not great but has excellent against Jays. Toronto starting N. Tepesch? Enough said. 

When you think of Arizona playing Minnesota, even ardent baseball fans cannot visualize an instance of these two teams on the same field ever. Of course it has happened and I can foresee the outcome falling below the sportsbooks post of 9. Zack Godley has been a consistent starter all season and is sporting a fine 2.95 ERA. Statistically, Ervin Santana is having one of his best seasons at 34 and his 3.28 ERA is well below his career-norm of 4.04. To further support this line of thinking, the D-Backs are 25-9 UNDER on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 and Santana is 17-7 UNDER as an underdog of +150 or lower. 

The Texas Rangers offense has hit another gear, averaging better than 11 hits a contest and 6.9 runs in their last seven games. They will face somebody named Reynaldo Lopez (3.00) for the White Sox and if he got any sleep after watching Texas highlight's from last night, I would be shocked. The total of 11 might sound high even with how the Rangers are swinging the lumber, nonetheless, Texas starter Tyson Ross is not exactly mowing down opposing batters with a 7.10 ERA in eight starts. Don't be afraid of big number. 

This could be a rather intriguing contest, as these teams scrimmaged on Tuesday and several skirmishes broke out. The wagering action is following Tampa Bay, who has gone from +2.5 to a -1.5. This likely follows the path of preseason games where one team underperforms, the Buccaneers in this case (23-13 loser at Cincinnati), while the other club overachieves, like Jacksonville last week in 31-24 upset at New England where the offense piled up 447 total yards. This also fits a very solid preseason system for Tampa Bay, as road teams having scored 14 points or less in last game, facing opponent who scored 30 points or more, are 25-8 ATS. 

It is really hard to go against John Harbaugh this time of year, especially on the road or as underdog, with Baltimore 13-5 ATS and 14-5 ATS in those respective situations. 

Lance Lynn (10-6, 3.12) has put together a strong season for St. Louis, but many feel that will not be good enough versus a blistering Boston bunch that has won 11 of 13. The Cardinals have flown from +125 to +140 at Fenway. While Lynn would seem to give the Redbirds a real chance for a win, the Red Sox are a sensational 24-5 at home in inter-league games the last three seasons. 

Last evening St. Louis and Boston totaled 14 runs with the Red Sox a 10-4 winner, as the team's pounded out 25 hits and the famous Green Monster in left field got plenty of background shots on television. Tonight's total has been set at 9.5, but I'm not sure it will be threatened with Lance Lynn (3.12) facing  Eduardo Rodriguez (3.80). Lynn has a 1.45 ERA in his past seven starts and has held opponents to two runs or fewer in an major-league-best 18 starts and one or fewer in 12 starts, which ties him for the major league lead. Rodriguez is 5-1 UNDER at Fenway Park this season and if his team is off a victory, the left-hander is 15-4 UNDER. 

There are several main principles I also try to keep as religion in my betting process. One of them is to never overlay points or money with bad teams. If you are having to overpay for these teams you are making bad decisions. For tonight, there is a bad team that seems badly overpriced, San Diego. Now granted, I am not going to be spewing any information about how potent the Phillies are as the underdog here, other than to say that their starter Mark Leiter, is on a pretty good run of late. Leiter has made three starts for the Phillies this season and has a 3.31 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 16 strikeouts over 16.1 innings. San Diego is just 4-9 in its L13 games so it’s not exactly as if the Padres are playing well. On top of all this, 79% of the betting public at a noted sportsbook is on the Padres. Let’s go with the Phils tonight.

With Jacob deGrom (3.21) facing Sonny Gray (3.39), it seems safe to say there will be quite a few more people in the bar at Trump Tower in New York than on base at Yankee Stadium tonight. Both pitchers have been dialed in for some time now and with the total at eight, this does not appear anything they cannot overcome. While both the Mets and Yankees are capable of hanging crooked numbers in several games, they have become inconsonant. For example, the Yanks are 18-9 UNDER after batting .225 or worse over a five- game span, while the Metropolitans are 19-7 UNDER vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs a game in the second half of the season since last year.

Though Kansas City was losing the first three times on their current road trip eight-game road trip, they were coming out of their offensive funk and have tallied 6.6 runs per contest thus far as they travel to Oakland. The Athletics bats have been in good form also in ringing up 5.6 RPG in their last seven ballgames. A Jake Junis (4.70 ERA) vs. Jharel Cotton (5.72) matchup does not inspire the thought of a low score with the MLB odds at 9.5. Here is something you should consider; AL teams hitting .260 or less, against an opponent with a bullpen ERA 4.50 or higher, batting .305 or better over their last five games, are 34-8 OVER since 2013. 

Both Houston and Arizona are going through a rough patch. Those sensational offenses we witnessed before the All-Star break have cooled and the continual winning with it. The Astros have only scored 17 runs in their past half dozen tries and trying to solve the array of pitches from Zack Greinke (3.14) is never a simple process. Since winning wild 10-8 contest at Wrigley Field, Arizona have averaged 3.77 RPG. While it is true they have faced some tough pitching staffs in that stretch, every team does. Collin McHugh (5.32) has been either good or bad since returning from the DL for Houston and with the D-Backs 11-2 UNDER playing against a foe with a 54% to 62% win percentage, I will support the UNDER 9. 

For those unfamiliar with living in the south desert of Arizona, this is the so-called - Monsoon Season - where from basically July 4th until the end of August, the majority of time there is a chance of rain. Otherwise, you can literally go months without moisture on the ground. My educated prediction is that a Jake Arrieta vs. Zack Godley will be in keeping with sparse production in terms of base-runners plating. After a slow start, Arrieta has only given as many as three earned runs just once in his last seven starts. And with all the pitching prospects the Arizona was thought to have developed over the last five years, Godley is emerging the best of the bunch with a super 2.94 ERA. With the Snakes a -110 to -115 opening favorite and total of 9, you has to ponder in the Cubs past 30 games in which their money line was -125 to +125, the average total runs scored was 7.7 per game, which explains my outcome.

Today’s line in the Cincinnati-Milwaukee game is quite strange considering the pitching matchup in the contest, where yesterday’s game closed, how it finished. The Reds go with Sal Romano today, and he currently owns a +5.30 ERA and +1.6 WHIP, not exactly road favorite type numbers. He is almost that today in terms of pricing. Milwaukee goes with Matt Garza, who prior to his last start had been on a bit of a roll, having not allowed more than four runs in any of his prior 10 starts. He apparently also called a players’ only meeting for the team on Thursday so is clearly taking a leadership role with this team. Milwaukee was a -156 favorite last night with only a slightly better pitching advantage, and figures to get a mental boost from the 6-5 extra inning walk-off win. Let’s go with the Brew Crew today.

Often, when a team plays in the Hall of Fame contest, this is the week they dial it back, thus, it was confounding to see Arizona be switched from +1 to -3 in this contest. Both want to look at a lot of players, which can change dynamics quickly. I would rather take this many points than given them and am well aware the visitor is 5-0 ATS when these two collide. 

Big number on Aaron Nola and Phils but oddsmakers know what they are doing. 

Yesterday's pitching match was pretty good, but today's is much better with Drew Pomeranz (3.36 ERA) going against Luis Severino (2.91) on FS1 at 4:05 EDT. With rare exception, both have been in very good grooves and especially so lately, with the Boston lefty sporting 2.50 ERA in his last three starts and Severino downright stingy at 0.96 in the same amount of games. With the total posted at 8.5, the Yanks are 12-4 UNDER in the second half of the season versus winning teams. 

The Angels bats were ready last night and knocked around James Paxton, who had been on a major roll and finished off Seattle with Mike Trout's bases clearing double in the ninth inning for the victory. With the total at 9.5, that seems low considering we are talking about starting pitchers Ricky Nolasco (5-12, 5.09 ERA) for Anaheim and Marco Gonzales (0-0, 12.27) for the M's. Both clubs are averaging nearly five runs a contest in their past seven games and with two starting pitchers like this, each team will have an excellent opportunity to reach that same level of scoring by the sixth inning. 

R. Hill and Dodgers do not allow many runs and C. Richard gives up plenty. When the Dodgers face teams that allow 5 or more runs a game, they win by 3.1 RPG this season.  

Acknowledging of course that Kansas City will be a better team than San Francisco come regular season time, I have to honestly question the motivation of the Chiefs to cover a 4 or even 4.5 point favorite line in week I of the preseason. That’s what they are laying tonight against San Francisco. Typically, HC Andy Reid’s teams just go about their business at this time of year, they worry more about staying healthy than winning. The Chiefs as a franchise are just 35-60 ATS in their L9 preseason games. Starting QB Alex Smith figures to get a series maximum in this game before turning it over to Tyler Bray and Patrick Mahomes, a pair of inexperienced guys. At that point, what edge do the Chiefs really have over a San Francisco team that figures to be motivated to establish a winning culture under first year head coach Kyle Shanahan. He goes with Brian Hoyer, who figures to play much longer in order to entrench himself as the starter. Motivation is always big in these games. I would surmise the 49ers have more.

You are going to hear a lot about Denver winning 22-0 last year against Chicago and the Bears have revenge. Skip it. These are different teams and the Bears have two new quarterbacks trying to find their way. Denver on the other hand has two QB's, according to reports desperately fighting to win the starting job and unless it is a complete smokescreen, new HC Vance Joseph has stated this game's results will go a long way in determining who will start Week 1. Talk about motivation! Denver is 6-0 ATS of late in their first preseason contest and comes away the winner.  

I never have a problem backing Baltimore John Harbaugh in August since he is 23-13 ATS. Taking this further, with the total at 37.5, Harbaugh and company is 14-4 ATS when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. From one of my pals in the D.C. area, he told me Harbaugh is no fan of Washington's Jay Gruden and who love to stick it to him. 

Lance Lynn has quietly enjoyed one of the best starting pitcher runs in MLB of late, putting together six consecutive quality starts while going 4-0 with an ERA of 1.21 and WHIP of 0.964. His team is also heating up and has closed to within 1.5 games of the front running Cubs in the NL Central. The Cards have won five straight games while scoring 42 runs and pounding out 51 hits in the L4 contests. The Royals are spiraling the opposite way, having lost eight of their L10 games. Ironically, for tonight, my price finds St. Louis about 12 points higher than the -145 listed. With Lynn in the midst of a nice campaign, take a look at this angle: N. YOST is 43-99 against the money line in road games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better in all games he has managed. I love finding spots where hot teams are underpriced. This looks like one of them.

I have been hard on K. Gausman all year and deservedly so, but he is 5-0 with a 2.87 ERA in his past eight starts for Baltimore and pitching like the organization always felt he was capable of. The Halos are down to pitching Troy Scribner with so many pitchers on the DL this season. The Birds lost last night, but they are still 10-2 vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage .320 or worse in the second half of the season. Orioles take the series!

One of the lesser touted trade deadline deals this summer involved the Baltimore Orioles, who quietly obtained Jeremy Hellickson from the Phillies. Hellickson wasn’t exactly having a great year but his current WHIP of 1.23 is certainly respectable and in his first start with the O’s, he held the Royals scoreless on five hits in seven innings. That type of success may have been predictable as Hellickson was quite reliable in his first five years in the AL with Tampa Bay. Perhaps it is a good sign of things to come, as he and the O’s look to creep back into playoff contention. After three straight wins while scoring 23 runs on 37 hits, it looks like the iron may be striking hot for backing them. There is also this little trend to consider: BALTIMORE is 10-1 (+9.2 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in the second half of the season this season. The Angels meanwhile have lost three in a row and their pitching is floundering. Let’s take the O’s to outscore the Angels tonight.

#915-16  Astros/White Sox Over 9.5

Here is what you need to know about Houston and the Chicago White Sox. The Astros are the best team in the AL, they average a mind-boggling 6.9 runs per game on the road (Washington is second in baseball at 5.4) and they have been without two of their best hitters, George Springer and Carlos Correa for some time. They will face Derrick Holland (5.27), who is not the same pitcher we remember in Texas before injuries and he has 6.63 ERA in his past three starts, walking nearly a batter an inning, which is making his problems far worse. Dallas Keuchel is 9-1, with a 2.15 ERA, but after a lengthy bout on the DL recovering from a neck ailment, the left-hander has shown signs of vulnerability, allowing a total of six earned runs in eight innings (6.75 ERA) over the two starts. When I look at those MLB odds of 9.5 on the total and uncover Holland is 14-3 OVER vs. teams outscoring foes by one or more runs a game and Houston is 12-4 OVER on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season, I really do not have to do any more research.

The New York Yankees have been hanging around first place all season, which has been rather startling considering they were supposed to do this possibly next season in the remodeling process. Among the reasons for their success has been CC Sabathia (9-4, 3.81 ERA), who looked to be going the way of Matt Cain, an older ace with a big contract too expensive to release, who could barely get hitter's out. Sabathia figured out a new way to pitch, got healthy and has pitched beyond expectations.  J.A. Happ (4-8, 3.92) will go for Toronto and he appears to finally getting healthy and he has a great track record versus the Yankees. With total at 9.5 (now 9), the Yankees big man is 13-4 UNDER versus teams averaging 1.25 or more homer a game and Happ is 16-5 UNDER in home night games since 2015.  

The Dodgers have won 43 of their last 50 games, the best 50-game stretch in 105 years! I don't how you bet against them, especially with a System like this: Play Against home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (NY METS) with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game, with a cold starting pitcher whose WHIP is 2.00 or higher over his last three starts. (55-13, 80.9%, L5Y)

The Big A in Anaheim has for a long time been known to favor lower scoring games. Though Anaheim is quite a ways inland from the Pacific Ocean, the nightly heavier air keeps enough fly balls in the park. Yet in the last three seasons when rival Oakland comes to town, the game could be played in a dense fog (OK a slight exaggeration) and these two clubs would still score runs. No doubt the pitching staffs for both teams have not been great and this the key rationale behind them having 17-6-1 OVER record. Today, a scuffling Sal Manaea (5.17 ERA, L3G) is opposed by a seemingly always scuffling Rick Nolasco (5.40 ERA, L3G). With the A's a +115 underdog and the total at 9, Manaea is 11-3 OVER in that role this campaign. 

One of the hottest pitchers in the league is underpriced today, and strangely enough, it comes against one of the league’s worst lineups. That pitcher is Gerrit Cole, and his opponent for today is San Diego. The Padres are 12-games under .500, have lost back-to-back games, and are just 19-33 on the road in 2017. They are also a very poor underdog: GREEN is 30-63 against the money line as an underdog of +125 to +175 as the manager of SAN DIEGO. Cole has been stellar of late, with five straight quality starts in which he has compiled a WHIP of 1.09 with 34 K’s in 32 innings. He has also thwarted poor lineups: COLE is 12-3 against the money line vs. a NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. (Team's Record). Let’s go with Cole & the Pirates tonight.

Milwaukee and Tampa Bay remain in playoff contention in part because of how well their starting pitchers have performed, with both in the Top 7 in the majors in ERA. Two hurlers who have made huge contributions will start this evening, Zach Davies for the Brewers and Alex Cobb for Tampa Bay. Davies is 6-0 on the road this season with a sterling 2.83 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Cobb was knocked around in his last start at Houston, but for the season has an excellent 2.58 ERA when pitching under the dome in Clearwater. Add in the Brew Crew is 15-2 UNDER after scoring four runs or less in three straight games this season, this will be low scoring affair.

I just cannot see how you back Phillies on the road at 16-39 and after a slow start, Colorado is 19-7 at Coors Field. The Phillies are 9-26 after scoring four runs or less in three straight games and have lost 47 of 67 after losing previous contest. The Rockies will Rock!

There is quite an attractive underdog betting system available for tonight in the NL Central duel between St Louis and Cincinnati: It says to Play on All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 after being shut out in a loss to a division rival, a bad team (38% to 46%) playing a team with a losing record. The record of the system is 64-35 in its L99 games, good for 64.6%. That is certainly noteworthy on an underdog. Tonight that underdog is the Reds. St. Louis isn’t in much of a place right now to be a road favorite, as they are just floundering along, 3-4 in their L7 games and sitting 2-games under .500 overall. Starter Mike Leake has also been wildly inconsistent of late. Cincinnati starter Asher Wojciechowski hasn’t been unstoppable, but his WHIP of 1.12 and his 35 K’s in 34 innings certainly show potential to be.  Let’s ride him and the Reds tonight in the underdog role.

As we are all aware, baseball's a fickle sport. Philadelphia off five straight wins flew to Anaheim and has scored one time in two games versus two below average Angels starters and been whipped twice. They will attempt to salvage one game in the series, but have blown up from +130 to +150 underdogs. With suddenly no offense and Jerad Eickhoff (2-7, 4.56) hardly inspiring confidence, this is easy to understand. They will take on the Halos best pitcher, Parker Bridwell (5-1, 2.83), who is making the most of his opportunity, having just turned 27. Though the Angels offense is hardly reliable at 4.2 RPG, in their past eight contests they have averaged 6.2 RPG.

Colorado right-hander German Marquez has gotten back in a good groove with a 3.05 ERA in his past three starts. Though the Rockies fell last night, they have still scored five runs in each of the first two games in this series and should be able to knock Mets starter Rafael Montero (1-7, 5.56) around.

Consider that info and this system: Home favorites like the Rockies with a money line of -125 to -175, batting .290 or better over their last 20 games, against opponent starting pitcher who is working on five or six days rest are 41-10 since 2013.