Andrew Luck has been amazing, the Colts offensive line and tight ends have been sensational and the defense has held up. We have all heard Luck has never lost at home to Tennessee, until Sunday. Marcus Mariota is healthy and confident. Both the offensive and defensive line are capable of dominating and this is a very physical football team that is all too aware of past failures in Indy. All three of my power ratings have the Titans winning, I concur.

Houston has won six in a row in this battle of first place teams. After years of horrible health luck, the Texans are holding up and added Demaryius Thomas to take the place of Will Fuller to help Deshaun Watson. That is something the entire team notices about a commitment to winning. Washington has taken Houston place for injuries and they have them everywhere. That is why Houston has a decisive edge against the battered Redskins O-Line. Consider Washington could only score 30 points against crummy defenses like Atlanta and Tampa Bay. The Texans hit a few big plays, limit what Alex Smith can do and Houston improves to 18-6 ATS vs. defenses allowing a completion percentage of 64% or higher. Texans by 7.

Because Oregon gets five points for being at home, oddsmakers are telling us they think Arizona State has the better team. I'm not sure about that, especially in Eugene. I give coach Edwards all the credit in the world, I never thought he could make the Sun Devils even an average team. But last week ASU played with expectations and barely beat UCLA at home and those expectations of knowing of two more wins places them in the Pac-12 championship. With the Devils 15-30 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70 and 2-11 ATS in road games after a win by three or fewer points, the Ducks waddle to a nine-point win.

Central Florida has not lost in almost two complete seasons. During the regular season, the Knights have only played teams that had to score to challenge them or those they were completely superior to. Though UCF played Cincinnati last year and blasted them 51-23, the comparison is in name only. This Bearcats team is 9-1 with their only loss in OT at Temple. This Cincinnati squad is physical on both sides of the ball and has more than enough speed to keep up with the Knights. ESPN Game Day is going to Orlando and this is the featured ABC telecast. Do not expect the Bearcats to have any sort of stage fright, as Cincy is 12-6 ATS as conference road dogs. All the pressure is on UCF and keep in mind they beat USF and Memphis by only seven points apiece to close last season. This is a three-point game either way.

Tennessee fans are still acting like it's 1996 to 2006 when they still mattered nationally. Four head coaches later (one interim), Vols fans were ready to cut bait on new head coach Jeremy Pruitt after a 3-5 start and four blowout losses to superior teams talent-wise. While defeating Charlotte and Kentucky is not going to raise an eyebrow in Knoxville, if they upset a solid Missouri club, that means extra practices and a bowl game, which is what coach Pruitt wants as he starts building his program. This would also be a great way for the Tennessee senior's to go out after nothing but tumultuous season's. Missouri got their bowl berth last week against Vanderbilt at home and has more natural rivalry game next week with Arkansas to get the juices flowing. The Vols bring the passion and send the home fans happy at least for one night.

As the season has gone on, Nebraska has gotten better and Michigan State, especially on offense, has gotten dramatically worse. The Cornhuskers have won two straight and covered five in a row and can score on anybody. The Spartans are averaging 19.3 PPG in conference and while I expect them to surpass that total, they are not built for shootouts. Understand this, when the line is +3 to -3 and a team like Michigan State has gone under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season, they are 6-25 ATS when this all comes together. The Children of the Corn will be on streaks of 3-0 SU and 6-0 ATS. 

Northwestern is 0-4 outside the Big Ten, yet won the West Division with two weeks to play. Not exactly sure what that means but if we follow the Wildcats we will learn. While coach Pat Fitzgerald will preach continual improvement for his Northwestern team, the players know they are playing for the Big Ten championship regardless of how they play at Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are another strange Big Ten squad. One week after losing to Illinois and giving up 55 points, which led to firing defensive coordinator, Minnesota inexplicably holds Purdue to 10 points in 48-10 rout, crushing any chance for them to win their division. It's Senior Day for the Gophers and a victory means a bowl game, thus, motivation is a key component in this clash. Yes, we realize the Wildcats are 11-3 ATS on the road and we also realize Minnesota is 10-1 ATS off an upset win over a conference rival as a double-digit underdog. Minny by 6.

Buffalo is playing better but Winnipeg is 18-4 at home after playing two consecutive home games the last two seasons. 

Memphis has been tough at home but Sacramento is playing with a lot of confidence and is not backing down, giving great effort. Both my power ratings have this as 3.5 or less point out, let's grab the Kings. 

Penn is shooting lights out and I don't see where Northern Iowa has anywhere near the scoring options. Quakers by 6 or more. 

Iowa has an experienced team that can score from anywhere on the floor, Oregon has length and tremendous potential, but they are not there yet. If this game was being played in late January, the Ducks might get the call. Let's not also forget that Oregon is on a 0-6 ATS tournament game down. One point game either way. 

I actually have a two-parlay for you tonight. I taking the Flyers and Wild. This reduces risk and offers a good payout. 

Southern Miss has Doc Sadler as their head coach and he's a proven winner. He has a backcourt that will be among the best in C-USA and they will have a sizable edge over Troy. The Golden Eagles appear to have fixed last year's defensive woes and are playing the way Sadler prefers and Troy is 0-7 ATS in home games against Conference USA opponents. 

Kent State stinks as 2-8 record shows but they are getting some run because they are 6-4 ATS and 3-0 ATS at home. The Golden Flashes have flashed from +14 to +11.5 against Toledo. My question is can Kent State score enough to keep pace with the Rockets? I don't think they will and found out the Flashes are 7-23 ATS after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game.

The Nets will miss C. LeVert, but not necessarily in the first game, where others take it upon themselves to step up. Miami actually has even more injuries and is on a 0-3 SU and ATS skid. Brooklyn has been playing scrappy basketball, they are back home from a four-game road trip and have covered three straight over Miami. The Nets win this one!

Nebraska has a more veteran lineup and at this point of the season is further along. As noted in the material here, the Cornhuskers are 15-2 ATS at home games the last two seasons and favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, in a game involving two teams who had good records (60% to 80%) from last season, with 3+ more starters returning from last year than opponent is 26-6 ATS, 81.6 percent.

FIU has a backcourt duo of Brian Beard and Trejon Jacob and they should have a huge edge over Milwaukee. When breaking down the frontcourts, FIU has a size and experience difference also. Milwaukee has already lost twice and is coming off a tumultuous off-season and it might take them a year to overcome what happened to the program that brought one starter and one of its Top 7 scorers from last year. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, after two straight wins by 15 points or more, with four starters returning from last year, in the first five games of a new season, are 24-7 ATS since 2014. FIU by double digits. 

Two good wins San Diego, whose shot the ball well and rebounded with authority. No question Washington is a step up in class, but SDU is 15-4 ARS as a road underdog and keep this around 5. 

The Spurs have won 14 straight over the Kings. There is talk Sacramento is ready to break the streak at home, but San Antonio knows how to beat them and while the Kings offensive is much improved they are still allowing over 116 PPG. The Spurs have held four of past five foes under 95 points and win by 6. 

If Cal-Davis cannot shoot and gets blown out by two WCC teams at home, how can they possibly deal with the pressure Arkansas will bring? They cannot, Hogs by 22. 

Troy covered at St. Louis as a +12 point underdog and they are only getting six at Pittsburgh? It sure seems like the oddsmakers are trying to tell us something and the Trojans are 7-0 ATS off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. Troy falls by 2 or 3. 

Let's begin with the obvious, Philadelphia is home off a bye week and Dallas is on the road having played on Monday. In breaking the game down further, Dallas remains limited offensively for a variety of reasons. It starts with the offensive line. For a period of about five years, the Cowboys had the premier offensive line in the NFL. They might not have been No.1 in various graders eyes each and every year, but they were in the Top 3 the entire time. Age and injuries have lowered the Dallas O-Line to where it is now considered just above average. Even with Amari Cooper, Cowboys lack in consistent playmakers and with Dak Prescott more under pressure with a lesser running game and receivers who cannot create separation, that limits Dallas. Philadelphia has felt the effects of being a Super Bowl champion. But the bye week has to be a large help and allow the coaches to find ways to improve the offense. The Eagles are not going to repeat as champions but they are nicely positioned to repeat as NFC East champions. Look for them to beat Dallas by 10 or more.

The Jets are 23-4 in home games against teams allowing 2.85 or more goals a game and the Devils are 0-6 having lost two of three and 1-6 on the road this season. 

The Herd is 15-3 ATS after a road game where both teams scored 75 points or more and favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who outscored opponents by four or more points/game last year, after scoring 95 points or more, are 37-10 ATS. My numbers have them winning by 11.5 to 13 points.

Matt Ryan is hot and has the weapons to put up points on a banged up Cleveland defense that surrendered 33.8 PPG in their previous four outings. Along that same line, Cleveland is 1-8 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in three straight games 3-13 ATS in home games after two straight losses by 14 or more points. Atlanta by 13. 

Nobody would have guessed at the beginning of the season Jacksonville would be an underdog in this AFC South showdown. But the Jaguars to this point have morphed into the teams from earlier in this decade and are making a lot of mistakes. Indianapolis has some real positives and there are those who think they might even become a playoff team. For my money, the week off will help Jacksonville refocus and with L. Fournette back, the running game should pick up, which makes B. Bortles a better quarterback. In addition, the Jags defense, though underperforming, matches up well with Colts offense. In this contest, underdogs having been beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, against an opponent after going over the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 28-7 ATS, winning by two points a game. The Jaguars outright.

South Florida has been exposed as a fraud, losing by more than 20 points twice after a 7-0 start. With USF having allowed almost 294 YPG on the ground on average over their past four games. Cincinnati should have no troubles getting their average of 236 or quite possibly more. The Bearcats real strength is its defense and while the Bulls will put up a fair amount of points, Cincy is 8-0 ATS off a blowout win by 35 points or more over a conference rival and wins by 21. 

Late info, plus, conference road favorites (LA MONROE) who are an average rushing team(+/- 40 RY/G), going against a team who is outrushed by 80+ YPG after 7+ games, are 37-11 ATS, winning by 16.7 PPG. 

Iowa was in position to beat both Penn State and Purdue on the road and failed to do so. That left them two games behind first place Northwestern in the Big Ten West Division and giving them almost no hope of reaching the conference title game. While we expect the Hawkeyes to be geared up back at Iowa City, the passion is not likely to sustain with little to play for. Northwestern has everything to play for and they hold the tie-breakers over Wisconsin and Purdue, their closest competitors. The Wildcats are in their best role, a road underdog.  The 'Cats are 28-15 ATS as a road dog catching and 7-0 ATS in away games after gaining 3.75 or fewer yards a play in their previous contest. Iowa by 1. 

Duke is 6-3 on the season but three of those setbacks have occurred in the Blue Devils past five games. Duke has been out-gained in each of their past five outings and that is seldom a mark of a team that is going to cover 10 or more points. North Carolina is hardly a charming proposition at 1-7 and 3-4 ATS. However, being just eight miles from Durham, the Tar Heels do bring some positives. Namely, they are 9-1 ATS after five or more consecutive losses and 5-1 ATS as an underdog. The Heels are also 11-2 SU at Duke and 6-0 ATS after allowing 31 points or more in three games in a row. Duke by only 6. 

Kansas State has basically owned Kansas at 22-4 SU record and 18-8 ATS mark. That includes an 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS mark at home. Kansas earlier this season ended their long road losing streak, but it still continues in the Big 12, where they are 0-43 (13-29-1 ATS), last winning in 2008. Since the day Bill Snyder arrive at the Little Apple, beating Kansas has been a priority. K-State by 17. 

After losing to Georgia, Florida was primed to finish 10-2 and play in a New Year's Day bowl. Evidently, they did not know they actually had to play and win those games to accomplish that, as they were mauled by Missouri in Gainesville 38-17. The Gators lack strong quarterback play and dangerous playmakers. Their defensive front seven is smallish and looks to be wearing down. South Carolina's last four contests have been decided by 12 total points and the Gamecocks have won three of them. At this juncture, South Carolina players believe they can stay in any contest and Florida is 2-12 ATS after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games. A three-point game either way. 

I'm smelling blowout city with Louisville at Syracuse. The Cardinals players have given up some time ago and a coaching change is coming. Louisville is 1-8 ATS this season and 3-12 ATS under B. Petrino 3-12 ATS vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG. The Cards are also 0-7 ATS in road games versus teams averaging 425 or more YPG. Let's make the final score 49-20, Orange. 

Vancouver is trying to work their way thru a series of injuries. With this, they have played fairly well for the first halves of games but had trailed off in the second half. Boston is 5-1 in their own rink and when they have two days off, they are on a 14-1 roll and so it goes....

Florida is back from Helsinki where they split two games with Winnipeg in what has been a disappointing start to the season at 3-8 SU. Nonetheless, the Panthers have been jacked up from -135 to -155 home favorites over Edmonton. The Oilers are 0-2 on the road trip but those came in back to back nights at Washington and Tampa Bay. With a day off and stepping down in class against a team they are 10-4 in their building, let grab the underdog Oilers. 

This appears to be a hunch bettors special. Detroit has lost five in a row and is 3-6 ATS on the season. Yet, the Pistons have gone from -1 to -3 point favorites at Orlando. The Magic had lost six or seven, but have won their past two and is 4-0 SU and ATS against Detroit at home recently. The Pistons have a better roster, but they are 6-19 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 the last three seasons. 

Tough spot for Edmonton, having lost at Washington last night. Tampa Bay is 34-12 at home off two or more road wins and 12-2 against goalies saving 93% or more of shots against.

Four starters back and a team that is well-coached and wins big games. E. Tenn. State has quite a bit of new talent, but not one starter back. I have a nice system that involves the favorite having two or starters edge to start the season, that shot over 45% last year and held foes to under 42% shooting. (39-19 ATS) Georgia State by 11.

When you break down the standard numbers with these teams, you have two weak offenses going up against two underrated defenses. Dallas has played well at home this season at 3-0 and 2-1 ATS but history shows them at 15-31 ATS as a home favorite. Tennessee is only 1-3 SU on the road, but 2-2 ATS and the margin of the losses had been -1.5 PPG. The Titans have lost three straight but are 13-4 ATS off one more setbacks and with Marcus Mariota having two weeks off to get healthier, I'm forecasting a three-point outcome either way. 

Orlando is playing very poorly, on a 0-4 SU and ATS decline and the average loss has been by 17.2 PPG, three which were at home. San Antonio, on the other hand, has won four straight (3-1 ATS) behind DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge. The Magic come into this game 4-17 ATS versus teams scoring 110+ points/game, while the Spurs are 18-6 ATS at home after one or more consecutive Under's. The Spurs by at least 12. 

This nonconference clash will be one of the more enthralling contests of Week 9 because of how the teams are playing. The Chargers arrive in Coffee Town on a four-game winning streak (2-2 ATS) with a pair of blowouts and two victories by three points. Seattle dropped their first two games of the year, but made changes in their offensive style of play and have won four of five with the only setback by two points to the 8-0 L.A. Rams. For this game I am looking at a red hot Seahawks running game that is averaging 173 YPG in their past four games. Against the three-best running offense the Chargers have faced they have allowed 155.6 YPG. This allows Pete Carroll's crew to control the tempo, keep the defense fresh and Philip Rivers on the sidelines. Seattle is a tough place to win for those who seldom visit and the Seahawks are 6-point winners. 

Pittsburgh lost the first game and is revenge-mode. At this time, the Steelers have found themselves on both sides of the ball. Baltimore looked poised to be a contender, but they have turned into frauds playing against better teams. When the spread is +3 to -3 and teams like the Ravens playing a conference game have gone under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, they are 7-22 ATS, losing by 3.6 PPG. Pitt wins! 

Not exactly the perfect week to fire your coach and OC with Kansas City coming. Even if you include Baltimore somehow scoring only nine on Cleveland, in their last five games the Browns are allowing 30.1 PPG. That is not a good number going up a Chiefs offense that averages 36.2 PPG and 36.7 PPG on the road. With Cleveland 2-12 ATS vs. teams with a completion percentage of 64% or higher and K.C. 8-1 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards a play in their previous game, it's the Chiefs by 14.

Ryan Fitzpatrick had another great showing as a relief pitcher last week. But as a starter, Fitz usually shows why he's played with eight different teams. The Tampa Bay defense is 32nd in points allowed and 29th in total defense. Carolina leads the NFL in with 28 explosive rushing plays (12 or more yards) this season. If the Bucs have to worry about the run, Cam Newton can go over the top for big passing plays. When teams like the Panthers are off two consecutive games where they committed no turnovers,  against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse, they are 25-5 ATS. Carolina by 17. 

The Lions traded G. Tate which signifies they are not serious about winning. The Detroit run defense is last in the NFL so expect a heavy dose of L. Murray. Minnesota realizes this is a big game with Chicago playing Buffalo. The Vikings are 20-8 ATS as a home favorite, 14-4 ATS  having won two out of their last three games and 14-5 ATS playing against a team with a losing record. Vikes by 9. 

The Cal Bears have a really good defense. That's good. The Bears also have a well below average offense. That's bad going against Washington State. The only two teams California has scored more than 24 points against are Idaho State and Oregon State. The Cougars are 100 percent legit and 7-0 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games and 7-0 ATS after gaining 475 or more total YPG over their last three outings. The Cougs by 17. 

After losing three of four, Mississippi State played a quality game and beat a solid Texas A&M crew. That win satisfied bettors enough that they have pushed the bell-clangors from -19.5 to -23 against Louisiana Tech. At this point not saying that is wrong, but coach Skip Holtz road dog teams are 13-6 ATS. Plus, these SEC Bulldogs have Alabama on tap. L.T. covered at LSU earlier this year and road teams after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, against an opponent after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 33-9 ATS. Miss. State wins but by 17 or less. 

Florida was pushed around by a stronger Georgia team last week. But a look at the Gators schedule the rest of the way finds four winnable games that should provide the motivation to finish 10-2. Motivation should not be an issue for Florida since they lost 45-16 at Missouri last year. The Tigers are a disappointing 0-4 in the SEC (0-3-1 ATS) and are running out of reasons to press on. In addition, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points having lost two out of their last three games, against an opponent having won four out of their last five games are 15-37 ATS. Gators by 20.

Purdue's hot streak ran cold in a loss at Michigan State and they will have to match wits with another physical football team this week in Iowa. The Hawkeyes were going in for the go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth quarter at Penn State when a receiver made a mistake which led to an interception at the goal line. With a matchup versus Northwestern next and two winnable closing games, Iowa needs this victory to have a chance to win the Big Ten West. With the Hawkeyes 34-14 ATS off a road loss and 27-12 ATS if it happened at conference school, Iowa wins outright.

UMass lost their starting quarterback and he's been a big part of their offense. With Ford out for UMass, Liberty has the better offense and they are well coached by Turner Gill. Two things to know about the Flames, they are 11-2 ATS as underdogs and if you drill down they are 9-1 ATS as road dogs. Liberty by 5. 

These are the two lone unbeaten teams in the AAC East and something has to give. We know that Central Florida continues to be an outstanding squad for a second straight year and has a point differential of 26.3 PPG. Temple's season looked over after starting 0-2, both home losses. Playing at Maryland seemed like another defeat, but they dominated 35-14 and are 5-1 and 6-0 ATS since. The Owls average better than two turnovers a game and if they do that in Orlando, they are toast. But if Temple plays physical defense and keeps the game in the 20's, they will move to 9-1 ATS after five or more consecutive wins against the spread.

Charlotte's offense has been up and down in their last five games. Because OKC's defense is not particularly good, at worst the Hornets should have an averaging shooting night which should equate to about 115 points. The Thunder are coming off two home wins in which they shot over 50% each time. I'm not certain they can do that again and are more likely to land under 110 points. OKC is also a miserable 6-23 ATS having won two of their last three games and end up losing by 5 or more. 

The NY Rangers are not very good anymore and have started the season 0-5 on the road and they are  5-22 in away games after one or more losses. San Jose has played eight of their first 11 on the road and is finally back at the Shark Tank. Expect the Sharks to add another win to 18-4 mark at home after allowing three goals or more in two straight games.

This is the final stop for Washington on a five-game road trip and they are 1-3 SU and ATS and 1-5 SU and ATS on the season. The Wizards are playing zero defense, which helps Memphis who is shooting great at home and horrible on the road. The Grizz control the tempo like the usually do and move to 18-4 and 16-6 ATS when Washington pays a visit. 

I'm going to ride the hot hand with Sacramento who is young and exciting in winning and covering three straight. The Kings are playing excellent defense and generating a number of turnovers. Orlando has lost four of five and is shooting poorly.  With the Magic 5-16 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points the last three seasons, this is a one-point game either way. 

Minnesota is just 6-30 lifetime against LeBron James, but that was against much better teams James played on. My power ratings have the T-Wolves winning by either six or seven points and they are 10-1 ATS at home after three or more consecutive Under's. 

Calgary has lost four of their last five games, while Toronto is playing like they are supposed to winning seven of their past nine. Plus, the money line is reasonable for a team like the Maple Leafs having won 15 of previous 18 at home against the Flames. 

If you know anything about Aaron Rodgers, he loves being counted out. Green Bay might have as tough a slate four of a next five weeks as any team will have all season and Rodgers has made mention of the that a few times. While this seems impossible to slow down the Rams, the Packers are 11-2 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games. It might not make sense but it's the NFL and Pack ends up losing by six or less. 

The Colts being ridden from -1.5 to -3 at Oak-Town is not so much a play on Indianapolis, but rather against the Raiders. Oakland is a mess and Jon Gruden might have a long term view, but the older players want to win today, not in three years. Coach Frank Reich of the Colts does not have a great deal of talent on his roster, but they play hard all four quarters. It is hard to overlook Oakland is 10-23 ATS as a home underdog of three points or less. Indy by 6.

Seattle turned the corner once they decided to become a running team and let the offensive line block, instead of relying on R. Wilson to do everything. This has made the Seahawks a better team and improved their defense with not as many three and outs by the offense. Detroit has gone thru a similar transformation, but there is still something still unsettling about the Lions. Detroit made a trade to beef up their weak run defense but will the impact be immediate? Plus, let's not lose sight of the fact the Lions are 16-39 ATS after having won three out of their last four games and 4-13 ATS off a double digit road win. Seahawks outright! 

Jacksonville is in disarray. The team and coaches have lost faith in B. Bortles (again) and the defense is not playing up to last year's standards. The Jaguars have been outscored 90-28 in their last three games and they come in 0-6 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse. Here is what you need to know about Philly; favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they committed one or less turnovers, against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are, 26-11 ATS winning by a whopping 11.6 PPG. Eagles by 10. 

Texas A&M is not the program they want to be yet, but Jimbo Fisher is adding one key element. After losing to Clemson by two, the Aggies have won three straight by 13 total points. Granted, that is hardly domination, but it proves they know how to win the game is on the line. Mississippi State is rudderless, having lost three of four and their new head coach is unhappy QB Nick Fitzgerald can only run and not pass. Know this, when the line is +3 to -3 and teams like the Bulldogs have gone under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season, they are 5-24 ATS since 2009. 

Let's start with this, Stanford is 5-0 SU this season when holding teams to 13 points or fewer, and 0-3 when teams score more. Any takers on Washington State scoring that few of points? That's what I thought. The Cardinal only beat Arizona State because of +3 turnover margin. Washington State is for real and they can drive Stanford crazy with defensive reads and doing the opposite of expected. In addition, teams like WASHINGTON ST. who score 34 or more PPG, against a team allowing 16-21 PPG after 7+ games, after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half, are 30-9 ATS. The Cougs win outright. 

N.C. State can pass but they cannot run, averaging 3.8 YPR. Syracuse has a balanced and more prolific offense, which averages 42.6 PPG. The Wolf Pack opened as an underdog before being shifted to a favorite and that will not suit them because they are  8-20 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less. With N.C. State  2-9 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival, Syracuse wins outright!

Maybe it will turn out differently, but Penn State is laboring, particularly on defense. The Nittany Lions could not hold a two-score lead at home against Ohio State. The following week they again failed at home versus an overrated Michigan State squad and last week they permitted 28 points and 554 yards to a so-so Indiana bunch in victory. Iowa is Iowa, they show up every week and stop the run and have enough offense to keep things close. It might be best to wait and see if you can grab the Hawkeyes at +7, but either way, Iowa is 19-5 ATS vs. teams scoring 37 or more points a game.

Iowa State was going nowhere, then enter QB Brock Purdy. With the ability to pass, the running game opened up and the defense enjoyed working with a lead and the Cyclones are as dangerous as any team in the Big 12. With Texas Tech 5-17 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points and Iowa State 15-4 ATS since last season and 7-0 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56, they win by 10. 

Both these ACC squads are 5-2 and the winner stays in the chase to win a division title with future conference games ahead. This matchup is your classic - power vs. speed - confrontation, with a couple twists. Miami has the overall speed edge, but not as much on defense as usual, as Boston College has gone away from their plodding offensive style to more explosive methods and generating big plays. The Eagles are also not the better defensive team like in past years. Being able to get the hook without buying is a plus. Here is the key situational play: Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like the Hurricanes, who are off a close road loss by three points or less, with a winning record on the season, playing another winning team, are 13-39 ATS since 1992.

Lane Kiffin was more than happy to take all the credit for winning C-USA championship in his first year at Florida Atlantic. The assumption was he could take all the leftovers in fertile Florida market of football players and have great success. This year, with the offensive talent down a bit, FAU has not been nearly as strong as 3-4 record shows and even with that, they are well below market expectations at 1-6 ATS. Give Skip Holtz some points in almost any game and he turns into money for backers. A case could be made Holtz's Louisiana Tech squad is the better team, besides the fact the Bulldogs are 5-2 (4-3 ATS). With Holtz 32-15 ATS a road underdog in his career, we will take the points and make a side that Louisiana Tech winning outright.

This more a play against the Kings than on the Wild, let me explain. Los Angeles has minus-15 goal differential, with only Detroit being worse. The Kings rank 28th in goals-against (32) and penalty-kill percentage (70.8), and sits at 29th in goals for (17), assists (29), shooting percentage (6.77) and power-play percentage (10.0). Toss in they are 1-9 after allowing four goals or more in two straight games, I'll back Minnesota. 

With all the injures Ben Simmons has suffered, his team knows how to play and win without him if he cannot go tonight. Detroit has won their first two games but they haven't been overly impressive. They defeated two of the projected weaker teams in the Eastern Conference, Brooklyn and Chicago, both of whom were playing without two of their starters. Philly swept the Pistons last year 4-0 SU and ATS and is 21-9 ATS when playing with two days rest the last three seasons. The Sixers by 6.

Arizona wraps up a four-game road trip in which they are 1-2 and they have been idle the last two days in Columbus and are 2-14 when playing with two days' rest. The Blue Jackets lost at home to Chicago, two days after the Coyotes had beaten the Blackhawks, and Columbus is  13-2 at home after playing two consecutive home games the last three seasons. 

This is pretty simple, even with this year's away setbacks, Dallas is 20-14-1 ATS as a road dog. Dress Washington up as a home favorite and in the last 26 years, they are 43-70 ATS. With Dallas having the running game churning, they are 8-1 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards. For good measure, division road underdog off a nonconference win of 10 or more points are 14-3 ATS. Dallas by 6. 

Jacksonville is in a funk. The Jaguars proved last year how to make B. Bortles a better QB, supply him with a strong running game. The Jags have gone from 1st to 18th running the ball which places Bortles in more obvious passing situations and again he his turning the ball over. Houston's offense is not perfect, but they are gathering momentum. The Texans have gone from 0-3 to 3-0 and while those victories were hardly impressive, winning builds confidence. Jacksonville is 10-23 ATS at home after gaining 75 or less rushing yards loses outright. 

There is going to be a lot of bettors backing Chicago. It's going to be the wrong side and here's why. New England has scored 38, 38 and 43 points in their last three games, which means Tom Brady has the offense clicking. The Bears defense is not quite the same without Khalil Mack at 100% and the Patriots will look to work Chicago's linebackers in the passing game, before going deeper down the field. New England is 9-1 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards in three consecutive games, while Da Bears are 2-10 ATS at home after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points. Pats by 7. 

Both Minnesota and the Jets are 2-0 SU and ATS in recent games. In the NFL, one thing that is very hard to do is win and cover a three-game homestand, like New York is on. Mike Zimmer will design defenses that will be hard for Sam Darnold to read and over 60 minutes he will make a couple bad reads that will cost him. Kirk Cousins remains in excellent form and he has the weapons to exploit a depleted Flyboys secondary. With the Vikes a sharp 13-4 ATS against the AFC, it's Minny by 8.

I was very high on North Texas coming into the season but was mystified how they lost at home to Louisiana Tech. Previous to that game I was surprised that UAB fell to Coastal Carolina 47-24 as 8.5-point road favorites. However, since then the Blazers have rattled off four straight wins and covers, including laying out Louisiana Tech 28-7 on the road. It goes without saying what coach Bill Clark has done in never giving up on UAB football after the university shut it down, but his teams are 14-5 against conference competition and they win by 6. 

Kentucky averages 223 YPG on the ground, they are at home and rested. Against four Power 5 programs, Vanderbilt has allowed 257 YPG rushing and is 0-4 and 1-3 ATS. The Wildcats are not like their hoops buddies, but this is a good football team and with Vandy a less than dandy last in third-down conversions in the SEC, Kentucky faces a Commodores team that is on a 1-9 ATS SEC downer and is 0-6 ATS after being outrushed by 150 or more yards in last game. The only reason this is not a 10-star game is the 'Cats are 1-8 ATS as faves.  

Oregon expended a lot of energy last week in win over Washington. Washington State has figured out how to play the Ducks, beating them three straight times and they are on an 8-0 ATS run. The Cougars have enjoyed a week off and they should give them ample time to prepare. What I like about this Cougars defense is they rush the passer which covers up weaker elements of their defense. Washington State is 8-0 ATS after gaining 325 or more passing yards in two straight games and wins by 7. 

Just looking at stats is one way to handicap games, but you can miss things compared to watching games. When Wyoming faced New Mexico State in Week Zero, you could see they had a good defense, but the Cowboys has offensive shortcomings. Six days later, Utah State almost upset Michigan State in East Lansing and the Aggies had a dynamic offense. Fast forward to today and what looked true has played out for Wyoming and Utah State. The Aggies are for real and are  6-0 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards over their last three games. Conversely, Wyoming is  4-13 ATS after scoring 14 points or less.

Definitely, have lost value with Buffalo going from +3 to -1, but the line adjustment is accurate. Toledo is not up to its usual standard and its best win as a 3-3 team is over Nevada at home. The Bulls are 6-1 and upset Temple in Week 2 and the Owls have not lost since. When home teams like the Rockets are matched up with the line is +3 to -3, off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival, against an opponent off a home win by 17 points or more, they are 20-49 ATS.

I like the upgrades Washington made to their team in the off-season. Miami comes into this game off a loss to Orlando and probably will again be without James Johnson (sports hernia), Dion Waiters (left ankle), Wayne Ellington (left ankle), and Justise Winslow (right hamstring). That leaves a short bench for the Heat to work with. While it is true the Wizards were 11-22 ATS as a home favorite last year, this is a new season and divisional road underdogs off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are on a 2-24 ATS slide. 

Milwaukee has better talent on its overall roster and Charlotte is lacking punch to score in the paint. Though the home teams have covered five in a row, the Hornets are 10-24 ATS as an underdog since last year and 2-14 ATS as a home dog the past three years. Bucks by 6. 

Winnipeg is one of the favorites to advance to the Stanley Cup this season and they are in some fantastic spots Tuesday. The Jets are 19-2 at home against teams who kill less than 81 % of power play chances (Oilers are 31st in the NHL) and they are 25-7 also at home playing against a team with a losing record.

Denver nearly beat Kansas City but failed and the following week they were crushed by the Jets. Now they come home to face the best team in the NFL. The Rams are the full package. Defensively, they have had a few shortcomings but I don't anticipate Denver's offense to be able to expose them. The Broncos are struggling against the run and the pass and they are 0-7 ATS vs teams averaging 5.65 or more yards per play losing by 14 PPG. Rams by 14. 

In spite of Pittsburgh and Baltimore appearing to have more overall talent, it is Cincinnati who is first place in the division and whose played more consistently over 60 minute segments in building a 4-1 SU and ATS. Pittsburgh is off their most complete team performance of the season in drubbing Atlanta 41-17. The Steelers offense was more cohesive, in sync and didn't have the minor breakdowns that have plagued them all season. Let's be honest, the Pittsburgh linebackers and secondary are nothing special, but there ticket to success is pressure and when force the opposing quarterback to make quick decisions, they reduce their exposure to big  plays. Even though it is incredibly tempting to go against Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati, the Steelers are 23-5 SU and 20-7-1 ATS in the Queen City. Steelers outright.

By all appearances the Falcons are in a world of hurt at 1-4 SU. The defense is weak and injured and their season is literally on the brink. Tampa Bay is changing quarterbacks after Ryan Fitzpatrick used up his 15 minutes of fame. As bad as Atlanta has looked, do you really think that Jameis Winston is going to stroll in and lead his team to victory? I think not! Consider this, when the line is +3 to -3 and a team gives up 14 or more points in the first half per game and in their last game they scored three points or less in the first half, they are 11-33 ATS. Dirty Birds by 7.

Minnesota is off a nice victory over Philadelphia and Arizona is off their first win of the year. While the Vikings at -10 look imposing, let's not lose sight of the fact that the Cardinals were outgained by 237 yards last week. Arizona  is playing their second straight road game and with the total at 43, they are 1-9 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49. With the Vikings 13-5 ATS playing against losing teams, it's Minny by 17.

This is the time of year all football betting experts start looking at undefeated teams and look where they might falter. This is a natural one for 5-0 Colorado since they are 0-9 since the turn of the century when facing USC. But before we write off the Buffs, let's consider their confidence and having a strong-armed quarterback in Steven Montez, who can keep them in any contest. It's not like this is a vintage Trojans club, which is actually being outscored on the season. Colorado might falter, but USC is 5-14 ATS since last season.

There are those that think this spread is too high because of the Wyoming defense and those that think that have a point. However, two elements are being ignored. Fresno State is highly efficient on offense and is No.4 in the nation in Yards Per Point. The Bulldogs are averaging 40 PPG and they just scored 21 at Nevada, thus, it's not hard to imagine at home they reach 35 to 40. The Cowboys only score 17.5 PPG and Nevada allows 15. Fresno State is 15-3 ATS the last two years and 8-1 ATS after playing their last game on the road. The Bulldogs by 21. 

In most football bettors eyes, each of these clubs has been a disappointment in various ways. Each is staring at a second defeat in the middle of October already and there were few bright spots to fire up the alumni. This does not mean either cannot play the Big Ten championship in December, but they need to start assembling winner performances. Wisconsin is 5-2-1 ATS in the Big House in recent visits and they are 11-1 ATS on the road since 2016. Make the total in the 42.5 and 49 point range away from home (48 at last look) and Bucky Badger is a perfect 12-0 ATS.

Illinois is 3-2, which for them is really good, considering their lousy football history. The Fighting Illini have won the games they were favored and lost the ones they were not and are 3-2 ATS altogether. One could make a case for Purdue being at least 4-1 if not 5-0 if they could have closed out their first three contests, all losses, by a total of eight points. The Boilermakers are deserving favorite, but the Illinois defense by Big Ten standards is improving and the offense is putting together a solid run game with explosive plays. The Illini defense is generating better than two turnovers a contest and Purdue will make miscues. Illinois falls, but by just 7.

In other Pac-12 action, Washington could all but punch their ticket to the conference title game with a victory. But don't overlook Oregon, who would be 5-0 except for blowing a lead and losing to Stanford. The Huskies offense is more workmanlike than treacherous and the Ducks led by QB Justin Herber, are primed at Eugene to strut their stuff. Having been thoroughly embarrassed in being blown out 118-24 the past two years by Washington, Oregon is ready and this is a two-point outcome either way. 

By all appearances, Louisville has thrown in the towel already. Bobby Petrino cannot recruit like he used to, he lost his safety blanket when the AD was fired and the players are going thru the motions. Boston College lost to an undervalued N.C State last week but covered. The Eagles are forcing almost three turnovers a game which is about how often the Cardinals are turning it over. Like Papa John's which has its headquarters in Louisville, the Cardinals are not relevant anymore and are  0-7 ATS in road games vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG the last three seasons and they lose by 20. 

Duke's pass defense let them down on Sept. 29th and they were upset by Virginia Tech at home 31-14. That will not happen versus Georgia Tech's option, because the Yellow Jackets have 17 pass attempts in their last three tilts. However, the Jackets have scored 129 points in their past two games and posted over 900 yards rushing, which is they are favored at home. But Duke has a quality front seven on defense and while they might not be Clemson, they are in the Top 4 of the ACC. With the Blue Devils 12-4 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less and if drill down further, they are 6-0 ATS when catching 3 or less away from Durham, it's the Dukies outright.

Philadelphia and New York are both under .500. The Eagles are favored in this Thursday night game on FOX but this season is 0-4 ATS in that role. The Giants record as an underdog is better than their overall record (2-3 ATS vs. 1-4 SU), but they too are a phony. New York's stated goal was to be a more physical team, running the ball with rookie Saquon Barkley. Because their offensive line is horrible, the G-Men are 31st in rush attempts and 28th in rushing and have already given up on what was going to be their identity. Both these NFC East rivals commit more than more than two turnovers a game and force just one, thus, each is more inclined to beat itself than to earn a victory. As for a choice, there is now too much value on the better team at -1 and I'll take Philly because road favorites off two losses are 32-10 ATS against losing teams.

I'm not normally a Puck Line player, but giving out -275 this early in the season is even a stretch for me.  Vancouver is in the midst of 6-game road trip and they have lost the first two by 2 and 3 goals. Tampa Bay has only played one game so it is easy to assume they want to get in the swing of thing quickly. The Lightning covered the puck line against the Canucks in both games last year and that continues tonight. 

This is Winnipeg's home opener and they should be fueled with anticipation. The Jets are 17-3 at home after a road game and 18-4 on home ice after a road setback. Bet Winnipeg. 

Fate and stupid baseball prevented the Dodgers from sweeping series. That won't happen Monday as I get back part of yesterday loss. Even with the win, Atlanta is 6-16 vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs a game in the second half of the season and 5-12 in home games against left-handed starters. With M. Foltynewicz and the Braves 1-9 playing against a team with a win percentage of 54% to 62%, this series ends today.

The Cowboys won at home against Detroit, but not surprisingly failed to cover the number. Dallas is 0-2 SU and ATS on the road and has tallied just 21 points. Yet, let's look Houston's defense. In spite of being as relatively healthy as they have been in years, the Texans are permitting 27 PPG and 382 YPG against offenses averaging 325. In other words, this should create opportunities for Dallas to move the ball and score. In addition, the Cowboys running game is starting to churn and they are 8-1 ATS after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in two straight games. Add in Dallas is 6-0 ATS versus opponents allowing 375 or yards a game and I'll gladly take the points. 

Let's start with this: Play Against NL underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (ATLANTA) scoring 4.5 or more runs/game, after scoring three runs or less in two straight games. (78-14, 84.8%, L5Y)

Plus, the Braves are 0-8 at home in a playoff game, when facing elimination. And the Dodgers are 40-25 vs. LH starters, S. Newcomb is 5-9 at home (Braves record) and W. Buehler is throwing great.