The Ravens were one of my OVER picks for season win totals and they look the part. Joe Flacco is having one his best years and is helped with two quality tight ends and wide receivers who can get open. Flacco was also motivated by Baltimore taking Lamar Jackson in the first round. On defense, the Ravens are 2nd in total defense and tied for third in scoring defense. Look for them to create at least two Baker Mayfield turnovers and turn those into points. We know the Browns are 4-12 ATS as a home underdog,  but you might know the Ravens are 8-1 ATS off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog.

Carolina can keep Big Blue guessing with their use of RB Christian McCaffrey and that should be a big boost. Two games ago, he was a go-to player in the passing attack and then he turned into a major rushing threat in the next game. In three previous games against the Giants, quarterback Cam Newton has accounted for 10 touchdowns (eight passing, two rushing).On defense, the Panthers will force Eli Manning into mistakes because of having no offensive line. The Panthers should see an opportunity to overpower the Giants along the line of scrimmage. Carolina comes in a sharp 10-2 ATS at home after allowing 6.5 or more yards a play in their previous game. The Cats by 13. 

I was amazed as anyone the Badgers have gone down as a favorite against Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are reeling and Wisconsin should be refreshed off a bye. Almost impossible to imagine to the Badgers don't grind the Children of the Corn down to bite-size morsels and send Nebraska to 2-11 ATS after one or more straight up losses. 

I'm a big fan of what Mark Stoops is doing at Kentucky. Unfortunately, on Saturday night in Aggie-Land the joy ends. We saw what kind of team Texas A&M can be against Clemson. The Aggies have been staunch against the run, which is the Wildcats offense for all intents and purposes. Watch for the Aggies to slow Kentucky, make big plays in the passing game and win by 13. 

Here is the game, Georgia Southern is 6th nationally in rushing yards and USA is 120th in trying to stop the run. It won't happen immediately, but over four quarters South Alabama will fall to 1-13 ATS after a game where they committed one or less turnovers and lose by 17.

Syracuse is stronger on both lines and will be able to run the ball in particular on Pittsburgh. There is a significant edge at QB for the Orange, which is more than enough of an edge for point differential. Besides this, road favorites at this price the current total are 11-1 ATS. The Cuse by 7 or more.

Nothing to quibble about in understanding who is the stronger team, it's Oklahoma. But this is not breaking news as the Sooners have been an -8.5 to -16.5 points favorite each of the past five years in the Red River Rivalry and failed to cover the spread each time, losing twice. This Texas team is still not the most stable mentally, sometimes lacking confidence, other times playing too overconfident. This Longhorns squad has risen to the moment in their two biggest challenges, USC and TCU and won both games. Not forecasting a "W" for the Horns, but they are 7-0 ATS vs. teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards per attempt.

Play On NL home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like the LA DODGERS, who are scoring 4.7 or more runs a game, against an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or lower, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better. In the last 21 years, teams like the Dodgers are 46-4 in this spot. 

While the "Holy War" receives and deserves most of the attention as the rivalry in the state of Utah, don't sell this one short, especially for Utah State. The Aggies are a lot like other schools in other states, down the list of where recruits want to play. Annually, they have players that thought they were more than good enough to play at BYU or Utah but were passed over. Utah State has more than enough offense to give the Cougars a hard time at 51.5 PPG, with BYU checking in at 21.4 PPG. With Utah State 10-5 ATS against their state rivals, expect them to cash.

My first impulse was to consider Indianapolis with the points. Underdogs of seven or more are a respectable 6-6 ATS this season. But when breaking down the matchup, that is where Indianapolis becomes less attractive. In both New England losses, which were on the road, the one element that was in play is teams ran at the Patriots with a great deal of success. Miami tried that but New England made adjustments in gap control and because they built an early lead, they were able to dictate the tempo. The Colts are 29th in rushing and to think they will take advantage of the Pats seems foolish. New England's perimeter players are not near what they were even last year. Granted, they have more big-play potential, but they often do not create much separation on regular passing plays. That was partly why they emphasized the ground game more last Sunday and look for them to do the same this week. It will be New England by 17.

Though Oakland has a fine 47-34 road record, the Yankees are 53-28 at home. Because of injury the A's are doing the bullpen thing and while this has produced a good team ERA in those games in September, the fact remains they were 4-5. Luis Severino was not as good in the second half as in the first half of the season, yet his last three starts he had a 2.08 ERA and at home, he and teammates were 13-2 this season. Take New York.

During the regular season in hockey, I play almost all favorites, it's just my method. With the changes Toronto has made, they are the favorites to win the Eastern Conference. Montreal has made a number of mistakes in the front office and those are playing out on the ice. My Game Estimator has the Leafs winning 4-2 and that works for me. 

Pittsburgh got into the win column on Monday night largely due to three interceptions. Once again the pass defense was ineffective in allowing Ryan Fitzpatrick to throw for 411 yards. The Steelers rank 28th in pass defense and the issue is multifaceted. They are having problems staying with speedier wide receivers. Opponents are exposing them with underneath routes because their linebackers struggle to play in space, which leaves room for tight ends and backs to work in the 5 to 10-yard range. On offense, Pittsburgh was sharp at Tampa Bay and timing of the offense was more normal. Save a flat first half against Cincinnati, the Baltimore offense is much improved on the passing end. Joe Flacco is playing faster and making quicker decisions and he has better pass-catchers. The offensive line and run game are not synced up yet, but teams are trying to the Ravens to throw. When the point spread in this series is three or less like this game is, the underdog is solid 9-5-3 ATS and I'll back the Birds. 

It looked peculiar to see this game open as a Pick. Sure, Oakland is 0-3 and has been outscored 64-17 in the second half in the new Gruden era. But come on, Cleveland is 2-32-1 SU the last two-plus seasons and has not won back to back games since the middle of the 2014 season. For whatever reason, everybody's all excited about the Browns, yet the fact remains road underdogs like Cleveland, after three or more consecutive wins against the spread, in the first half of the season are 7-27 ATS. Raiders by 7.

The Dolphins will attempt to keep their perfect record intact when they head on the road to take on the Patriots in this AFC affair. Everyone wants to know what's wrong with New England. It starts with the personnel department and success. All those years of drafting late and not having as many players work out like in the past is catching up to them. This is particularly true on defense, where the talent level and effort is the lowest in years. Yes, Miami is 3-0 & ATS, but there is some smoke and mirrors. The Dolphins are being outgained by 53 yards a game which fits the profile of a losing team, not an unbeaten one. While I'm the first to admit New England at this many points looks challenging, betting against Tom Brady at home seldom works (64-9 SU regular season since 2009) and the Pats are 8-0 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games. New England by 16)

Toledo yet again might be the best team in the MAC. The Rockets can score and have a lot of firepower. But Fresno State is a different animal. Coach Jeff Tedford is an offensive coach and while his team does still score over 40 PPG, the defense is holding foes to 16 PPG which is below those teams normal average. Tedford is raisin country is 13-3 ATS, winning by 12.5 PPG and duplicates what he has accomplished with the Bulldogs. 

Washington State was sent out by sportsbooks as a 1.5-point favorite, but after baking awhile, they came out of the oven at +2. No question a case could be made for Utah, who is 16-7 ATS off a home loss and 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record. But if you have seen the Utes, they still lack a consistent passing offense, which is to their detriment. This Cougars offense can still wing it and they are No.2 nationally in passing. And Washington State seems to be an improved defensive squad. With Mike Leach teams 14-4 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games, it's the Cougs by 7.

Under Gus Malzahn, Auburn is not known for stability. They often play to the level of competition and are not thought of as tough-minded. Malzahn's best Auburn squad was his first, which was 75 percent Gene Chizik recruits from the prior years. In his time at Auburn, Malzahn is 10-16-1 ATS in non-SEC contests and 5-13-1 ATS when favored by 20 or more points. Southern Miss has a long history of facing big-time opponents (this goes back to the Brett Favre days when he beat Alabama and Auburn in the same year) and they have covered the number the last three times against the Tigers. The Golden Eagles are No.9 in passing in the country and an inferior team that can throw and score always has a shot to cover when catching large points. Auburn by 23. 

With Western Michigan having the overall stronger football program and beating Miami-O five straight times (covering the last four), the Broncos have been ridden from +3 to -2. Another good reason to support Western Mich. is the fact they have the superior offense, more than doubling the Redhawks output. (36.7 vs. 17.2 PPG) With the total at 53.5, Miami-O is 0-7 ATS at home when the total is between 49.5 and 56. The Broncos by 8.

There will be a lot of talk about Clemson and revenge. Given the Tigers place in college football does a game against Syracuse make the pulse rise? I say probably not, especially against a spread this high. In spite of how good the Clemson defense is, the Orange have a extremely balanced offense and they cannot take everything away. There is no chance of an upset, but road teams like the 'Cuse averaging 6.2 or more YPP, against a team with an excellent defense (4.2 or less YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-9 ATS. Clemson by 20. 

These two programs appear to be headed in opposite directions at the moment and it appears that the Chip Kelly era is going to get off to a slow start in Westwood. Kelly does not have the right players to run is his offense which is why they are averaging 17.3 PPG. The UCLA defense has been a mess for years and that continues with them allowing 37.7 PPG. Colorado has a nicely balanced offense led by QB Steven Montez that averages almost 500 YPG and scores 41 PPG. With the Bruins 2-10 ATS in September the last few years and 11-28 ATS after scoring seven points or less in the first half of two straight games, it's the Buffalos by 14. 

Boston is 14-2 SU and 14-2 on the RL vs. the Orioles. The Birds are 2-10 against the run line after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games and their starter D. Bundy is 3-17 on the RL after dark, with his team losing by 4 RPG. 

The student against the teacher on Sunday Night football. Bill Belichick goes against already beleaguered Matt Patricia. One week after it looked like New England defense was better than last year, Jacksonville carved them up like a turkey for 377 yards passing and it was the Super Bowl all over again for the Patriots. It is starting to appear the Patriots are still a very good football team, but the best team in the AFC, that is no longer guaranteed. Patricia cannot be blamed for wanting perfection after his time in New England and if Detroit is that soft mentally and physically, they need new players. However, Patricia is supposed to be a defensive genius and his run defense is permitting 5.6 yards a carry and 179 yards a game. Allow the Pats and Tom Brady to run the ball and they will pick any team apart. With Lions still having no running game and Matthew Stafford not as accurate thus far as the past few years, it's New England by 10.

Let's be honest, nothing much to fear about Seattle. But the same goes for Dallas also and the Seahawks are back home where they always play better. When the Cowboys do not score, they are not very good and they are 12-28 ATS in road games off two or more Under's. Seattle, on the other hand, is 10-2 ATS after two or more losses and is 11-2 ATS in September home games. The Hawks by 6. 

The LA Rams are like Hollywood movie premiere, there is talent everywhere. On offense, there is Jared Goff and Todd Gurley and revamped offensive line that even stronger. The receivers complement each other and all have a place in the Rams passing tree. On the defense, the line can dominate like no other in the NFL and the secondary is superb, But Los Angeles will support a winner and the Chargers can achieve more notoriety with the upset. Philip Rivers is a proven commodity and RB Melvin Gordon is turning into a Top 5 running back if he's not already there in NFL scouts eyes. Rivers over the years has never been shy about passing the pigskin to a variety of receivers and already after just two games, six different pass-catchers have chunk plays of 20+ yards. And Rivers is 11-3 ATS when catching  7 or more points, including playoff games. With the Rams 3-12 ATS after allowing less than 200 yards on offense, thy win, by just 3. 

What Baltimore team shows up? The one against Buffalo or the non-caring one against Cincinnati. Let's go the presumption it's the Game 1 crew and they will find 2-0 fraud in the Broncos. Denver moves the ball and is 4th in total offense, but is 24th in yards per point which is points scored per 100 yards gained. This has been achieved at a Mile High, not where they sell crab cakes. The Broncos are also 1-9 SU and ATS on the road of late and Vance Joseph is not among the best coaches in the NFL and he's 4-12-2 ATS. With Baltimore a solid 13-5 ATS in September home games, give the -5 because they are winning by double digits. 

College football has conference numbers that make no sense. You might have two fairly evenly matched teams but one always seems to struggle against the other. Take is Pac-12 encounter, where Washington is 1-10 SU versus Arizona State and is incredible 0-11 ATS. The fact is the Huskies have only been favored in the last two, thus, part this is not an impossible outcome. Still, name another matchup that finds one team on an 11-0 spread roll? Watch for the Sun Devils to fall, but just by 14 points. 

LSU is coming off an emotional win over Auburn and does not stand to gain much by beating Louisiana Tech. No question some Bulldogs players thought they were good enough to play at LSU and they will be motivated. Next, let's start with Skip Holtz being 30-15 ATS as an underdog coach in his FBS career and follow that up with road underdogs like LOUISIANA TECH, in a game involving two good running teams,  both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in last contest, are 37-12 ATS. LSU wins by 17.

Defeating Southern Utah does not count for much, which is what both these Pac-12 clubs have done for their lone victory. Arizona looked ridiculously bad in losses to BYU and Houston. Whatever Kevin Sumlin thought he might be walking into in a positive sense, that has not worked out. Oregon State was coming off a 1-11 campaign and new coach and former player Jonathan Smith has been working overtime to change the culture. Though they lost 77-31 at Ohio State, the Beavers hung 721 yards on the Buckeyes. Last Saturday, after trailing 30-7 at Nevada, OSU missed a 33-yard game winning field goal on the last play of the game. With the Wildcats 0-8 ATS in road games after two contests where 60 or more total points were tallied, we'll side with the eager Beavers who could win.

Kansas State is not what they used to be in Bill Snyder's first tour of duty, but for whatever reason the Wildcats have enjoyed a good success against West Virginia with a 5-1 ATS mark, winning four times. Snyder's teams have always thrived as road underdogs with a 20-10 ATS record and West Virginia under Dana Holgersen is 4-15 ATS with two weeks between games. The Mountaineers win by 12. 

Clemson's defense is allowing 89 rushing YPG, leads the ACC in sacks, and is sixth in the country in tackles for loss. How do you disrupt the option, generate penetration and use the speed on the outside to stay in the lanes. The option that Georgia Tech runs doesn’t work against this. The Yellow Jackets have no passing game and Clemson knows exactly what to do. The Tigers have more than enough offense and is 11-2 ATS away after playing two nonconference games. Clemson by at least 21.

Hard to explain how Maryland played last week in being throttled by Temple. Minnesota is making real progress under coach P. J. Fleck but the offense is not there despite a 3-0 record. If you saw last year's game as I did, the Terps have a huge speed edge and are coming off a bad loss and they should be excited to get back and play to make amends. The Turtles are a solid 26-13 ATS in home games after a loss by 17 or more points and win by 6. 

SMU cannot run, throw or play very good defense. That's a problem. Navy, of course, can run and they are second in the nation in doing so at over 355 yards on the ground. This type of offense is demoralizing to face over four quarters and Navy have beat up on SMU at 11-2 and 10-3 ATS, which includes 6-0 and 5-1 ATS in Dallas. I have a Super System that says home underdogs after allowing 37 points or more in two straight games, against opponent after allowing seven points or less in the first half of two straight contests, are 6-28 ATS. Navy by 17. 

This is how it works, you struggle, you struggle some more and when it seems impossible, you break through and everything opens up. That's where Cleveland is. After two games the Browns have a +6 turnover margin, which for any other normal team would mean a 2-0 record at this point. But these are Hue Jackson's Browns we are talking about and if there is a way to not win a game, undoubtedly, they will find it. Look for the kicking game to improve against the Jets this week, because, well, like Cleveland, it cannot get any worse. The New York Jets came crashing back to earth in a home loss to Miami and that fitting for Sam Darnold's Hall of Fame jacket will be put on hold for the time being. Cleveland is a favorite for the first time in exactly one year (-1 at Indianapolis, lost 31-28). Look for the Browns defense to harass Darnold just like they have Pittsburgh and New Orleans and QB Tyrod Taylor to make plays and Cleveland wins comfortably by 13 points, ending their 19-game winless streak.

The Reds come into this game 8-24 after batting .200 or worse over a 3-game span and they are 12-34 after scoring one run or less in last outing. C. Anderson has been a dependable starter for Milwaukee and he and the Brew Crew are 20-11 after dark and the Brewers are 49-25 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. At less than 2 to 1 odds, back the Brewers. 

For the New York Giants and Dallas, it is already about urgency. The loser will be 0-2 to start the season and they will have to climb out of a hole. Each team struggled in the trenches on both sides of the ball, unable to run with any consistency and largely pushed around on the defensive end. So who do you take in this confrontation of true adversaries? The G-Men and here is why. The Dallas offensive line is no longer a strength, stripping them of their identity. No defense this season has to go out of their way to game plan for the Cowboys' receivers. Saquon Barkley is a star waiting to happen, though Ezekiel Elliott is his equal for now. But what about Odell Beckham Jr. under the Sunday night lights? Who stops him for the Cowboys? This will be about making big plays and Blue Blue makes more, going up against a Dallas crew that is 1-9 ATS in home games after scoring 14 points or less in last game. 

It's interesting to see the oddsmakers are not "shadowing" the Patriots thus far and putting up what are realistic numbers. Not that New England has not been good enough to take on what comes there way, because they are 29-10 ATS record the last three seasons. Here is what I cannot get past - Tom Brady vs. Blake Bortles with a spread like this. By no means am I saying this is the same Jacksonville of the past, but when I see the Pats challenged and having a 13-3 ATS road record of late, I like them in this spot by six or more. 

Oddsmakers made Miami a one-point favorite before the Jets played on Monday night. After Gang Green made Detroit look sickly, the Flyboys were flipped to field goal home favorites. That to me is too much on the Jets and if you watched Miami last week, they looked more like the playoff team from 2016 running the ball and executing the short passing offense. In addition, they can heat up the pass rush and I think they give S. Darnold some deceptive looks and a turnover or two leads to scores and Miami who wins outright! 

Ryan Fitzpatrick was sensational last week for Tampa Bay. So why is he playing for his eight different NFL team? Because if you know anything about him, he just as likely to throw three picks this week against Philadelphia who will pressure him more and has the secondary to make him miserable. Two elements to ponder, the Bucs are 3-12 ATS off a win over a division rival as an underdog of six or more and the Eagles are on a roll of s 7-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. Philly by 7 or more.

Boy, Ohio State has really missed Urban Meyer! The Buckeyes are one of the four most talented teams in the country and that will show on Saturday night. If this game was in TCU, this might be trickier, but there will be thousands of Buckeyes fans in Dallas and any home field edge will be negated. TCU will be very competitive into the third quarter when Ohio State talent starts to matter and cranks up the defense and the running game and win this matchup going away by 19. 

It's the conference opener for these two MAC squads that are both 2-0. This is their first matchup in four years in a crossover contest among the divisions. Each team arrives feeling really good about itself, winning on the road as underdogs. In terms of whom to choose, here is why Eastern Michigan is the right choice. The Eagles have been money the last few years at 20-7 against the spread. They can hang inside the number on the road as their 12-2 ATS record proves and give them a bone (points) away from home and they are 7-0 ATS, losing by less than a point per game (0.9).

Kansas State was flat out pummeled by Miss. State and has to regroup. UTSA's defense has permitted over 1,000 yards in two games and has to go on the road again. The Wildcats should find a nice offensive rhythm and the defense will want to hit somebody after being shoved around last week. Coach Bill Snyder teams are 12-0 ATS after being outrushed by 200 or more yards and 9-0 ATS after allowing 300 or more rushing yards in last game. K-State by 26. 

After a strong opener, UAB could not stop the run against Coastal Carolina on the road and got hammered 47-24 as 8.5 point favorites. Sportsbooks have made the Blazers a home underdog which could work to their advantage. UAB has a nice history on the receiving end of points with 27-11 ATS mark. Third-year coach Willie Fritz has upgraded the Green Wave program to the point they could be bowl eligible. However, old habits die hard and this is still a Tulane team that is 14-57 SU on the road over a long period. Let's call for UAB outright.

Baltimore played a near flawless game against Buffalo in blowing them out 47-3 as 7.5 point favorites. This was a continuation of what we saw in the preseason from the Ravens and Joe Flacco taking his job more seriously since Baltimore drafted Lamar Jackson in the first round. Besides the attitude adjustment by Flacco, he's become more dutiful in his footwork and is not making as many off-balance throws, they were 50-50 balls for interceptions. Cincinnati had to come from behind to oust Indianapolis but showed more courage than recent Bengals teams. Cincinnati figures to be fearless at home against Baltimore since they have a 14-8 and 13-9 ATS record at home against them. The Baltimore defense received a lot of praise for their effort last week, but the Bengals Andy Dalton on a bad team is better than what Buffalo has a quarterback right now. These Thursdays tilts are always challenging, but I'll back the Birds since they are 10-1 ATS after scoring 40 or more points. 

Boston is starting to hit again and David Price always pitches well against Toronto. Price is 20-3 lifetime against the Jays and 19-9 on the RL. Speaking of the RL, the Blue Jays are 5-13 against the run line in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season, losing by 2.8 RPG. The Red Sox, they are 18-4 against the run line vs. AL teams allowing 4.9 or more runs/game in the second half of the season, winning by 2.9 RPG.

Frankly, could come up with a hundred reasons to be against Baltimore, but let's go with these two. The Birds are 1-17 when playing with a day off this season and M. Fiers of the A's is 10-2 if his team is off a victory this season. (team's record) 

Philip Rivers will attack a Chiefs secondary that is banged up and ranked 29th against the pass and 25th against the run a year ago.  Rivers has to be salivating since he's lost eight straight to K.C. (2-6 ATS). Look for Rivers to attack that pass defense through the air and the reason is two-fold. Not only does it allow the Chargers to play with a lead if successful, but it could put the Chiefs in a hole in which they are forced to pass. The Chargers would love to make the Chiefs one-dimensional and be forced to rely on the production of rookie quarterback Patrick Mahomes in the face of the Chargers' pass-rush combo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. The Bolts by 6. 

Not exactly a marquee matchup, but I will side with what appears to be the better team coming into the season. Tennessee looked lost in the preseason and while that is not a great barometer, the Titans look like a team searching for answers. M. Mariota is working with another new offensive coordinator this year which is supposed to tailor the offense to his skills. We will see. R. Tannehill looks to employ the running game and converting on short passes. Tennessee upgraded it secondary, but time will tell on this. Miami's a rotten home favorite but is a very respectable 27-17 ATS as an underdog of three points or less. Fish win. 

Sticking with history in the battle for the Victory Bell. Cincinnati has won 12 in a row over Miami-O. There is nothing to suggest based on that alone the Redhawks should be favored on a neutral field. Watch Miami throw for yards, but find the end zone hard to reach, while the Bearcats pound away on the ground and wear their in-state rivals down. Cincy by 3. 

Southern Miss was the far more impressive team last against a weaker opponent. Yet Monroe put up 554 yards last week which shows their diverse offensive potential and they have 17 starters back. Southern Miss comes into this contest 3-14 ATS at home after outgaining foe by 225 or more total yards. The point spread is right in the Warhawks wheelhouse since they are 20-8 ATS as a road underdog of seven points or less. The clincher, in the first two weeks of the season, teams like Monroe that closed out last season with three or more straight losses, returning 8+ offensive starters and a QB, against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters are 26-4 ATS.

Southern Miss was the far more impressive team last against a weaker opponent. Yet Monroe put up 554 yards last week which shows their diverse offensive potential and they have 17 starters back. Southern Miss comes into this contest 3-14 ATS at home after outgaining foe by 225 or more total yards. The point spread is right in the Warhawks wheelhouse since they are 20-8 ATS as a road underdog of seven points or less. The clincher, in the first two weeks of the season, teams like Monroe that closed out last season with three or more straight losses, returning 8+ offensive starters and a QB, against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters are 26-4 ATS.

Let's face it, betting against Georgia is not a particularly wise move these days. Yet, this South Carolina crew has a bit of an edge about them and coming into the season and they were a spotlight team that might be taking flight this season. The Gamecocks have a good offensive unit and coach Will Muschamp always has the defense ready to go. Not calling for the outright upset, just like the 'Cocks as 9-4-1 ATS home roosters.

If Navy's defense could not contain Hawai'i's offense (they surrendered 59 points), what chance would they have against high-powered Memphis? The Midshipmen rarely have two clunkers in a row and coach Ken Niumatalolo has been great at getting his team's attention right away and is 14-3 ATS after scoring and allowing 30 points or more in their last outing. There is nothing really bad to say about Memphis, other than the fact they are 4-14 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game. Memphis might win, just by four or less.  

Lane Kiffin's FAU crew was humbled at Oklahoma and needs to deliver a superior effort. But Air Force is not just any road underdog and in recent years, they have covered the spread at Michigan, Michigan State, and Boise State. Those places are far more intimating and the Falcons are 7-2 ATS the last few years catching points.

Atlanta and Philadelphia were largely sleep-walking thru the NFL preseason. In surmising this contest, going to be a little trendy, as in looking at the trends. Since 2000, the Super Bowl champions the opening week of the season are 11-6-1 ATS (15-3 SU). This makes sense on a couple levels. It starts with the champs being at home in a celebratory situation. Their confidence is high and starting a new year, they do not want to be the team stumbles early and everyone talking about the old - hunter vs. hunted - scenario. Also, I know the preseason is not supposed to matter, but the Falcons were 0-4. This might not matter in a few weeks, but for my money, consider that conundrum and their 1-8 SU and ATS record in Philly. 

Tampa Bay is 8-2 against Toronto this season and is stroking the horsehide right now to the tune of 5.7 RPG. The Jays are not hitting, scoring 3.7 RPG in their last seven. The Rays are a solid 22-17 against LH starters and they are facing R. Borucki, who has a 10.03 ERA in his past three starts. Add in the Rays are 18-6 after a win by four runs or more this season and we should have a winner! 

C. Hamels is pitching fantastic and 35-40 percent of the crowd will be Cubs fans in Milwaukee, which will give it home crowd feel there. With Hamels 22-8 after giving up one or less earned runs in last outing the last two seasons (Team's Record), the Cubs are good value. 

More than one sportsbook has Ed Orgeron as their first coach fired in 2018. New LSU quarterback Joe Burrow could not get playing time at Ohio State and transferred to the bayou. Take those two giant chips on people's shoulders and add in a strong running game and a defense that is only lacking in game experience and we might have an upset brewing. Orgeron likes to meddle a bit, but he has high-priced assistants he just needs to leave alone and get his Tigers ready to play. Orgeron, either as a head coach or an assistant, always performed best when the least was expected from his squads. LSU can win this game and remember, the half point hook could be very important. 

Hawai'i gave up 653 yards to Colorado State! And most importantly for this game, 5.3 YPC. The Rainbow Warriors offense looked great last week and as usual, Navy has a bunch of players to replace and the Hawai'i passing game has a few explosive guys. If this is short of 70 points I'll be shocked. Navy wins 42-31. 

There is a lot of talk about the strength of the SEC, especially at the top these days, with several weaker clubs a couple rungs down. There is a presumption since this game is in SEC territory (Atlanta), it will be like a home game for the Tigers. But Auburn has just one O-Line returning and if they push a very good Washington defensive front around, they would be an upset. The Huskies secondary is again oozing talent and playing in the Pac-12, they see plenty of exceptional pass receivers. No question the pressure is on Washington to stand up for the conference and it's time for QB Jake Browning to have a breakout performance.

Iowa for years was money during the nonconference part of the Hawkeyes schedule when coach Kirk Ferentz was doing his predecessor Hayden Fry imitation. But those days are gone with Iowa just 13-18-1 ATS in the role the last seven years. NIU's been down a bit the past three years with QB injuries but Marcus Childers fits their system. The offensive line is always tough and on defense, the Huskies are strong in the trenches and in the secondary. With NIU 13-4 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points recently, Iowa escapes by 8.

Washington State is not New Mexico State, but Wyoming showed right away what kind of defense they have, permitting one score with 76 seconds remaining when leading 29-0. The Cougars have to break in a new quarterback and have just four offensive starters back. Coach Mike Leach's team will move the ball because they always do, but look for Wyoming to force turnovers and turn those into points. With the Cowboys 16-6 ATS at home after out-gaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game, expect a minor upset in Laramie.

The Big Ten made a deal with networks to play games on days other than Saturday's, which will bring them in even more money. The winner of this game stays in contention for the bridesmaid spot behind Wisconsin in the Big Ten West. QB Clayton Thorson is loved by NFL scouts for his arm and demeanor. He's coming off a major injury, but limited reports have his mobility in good form. Northwestern is the bigger stronger team and is 8-3 ATS (6-5 SU) at West Lafayette and under coach Pat Fitzgerald, they are a sharp 27-15 ATS as road underdogs.

I've made a lot of money backing the Giants D. Rodriguez, picking him in the right spots. With the D-Backs 2-10 revenging a shutout loss and San Fran 11-1 in home games after allowing two runs or less in two straight contests, it's the Giants.

The White Sox are having their best month of the season, but that takes a detour tonight. Chicago is at a huge disadvantage in the starting pitching matchup and the Yankees are 22-12 on the RL after a one run win and 25-13 on the RL after batting .200 or worse over a three-game span. New York by at least three runs. 

No matter the outcome of the suspended game, the Cubs come ready for the regularly scheduled afternoon encounter. Chicago has the second-best record against LH starters in the majors at 19-9 and they are the top scoring team at 5.7 RPG, winning by an average 1.6 runs. Fade the Mets.

With more questions than answers about Anaheim and Colorado knowing how to win on the road 37-29 +18.1 units, I'll surmise that J. Gray and Rockies set a franchise record with 10 consecutive victories when he is there starter. 

Cardinals bullpen was hammered, which gave me my lone loss yesterday. While A. Gomber has a name like you would read in some children's book, he and St. Louis are 5-0 in his starts, including 4-0 on the road. Contrast that with T. Anderson for Colorado, as he and the Rockies are 3-10 at Coors Field and Anderson and his teammates are 0-7 at home vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage .315 or worse this season.

The Cowboys return 18 starters from a year ago, but one person who is missing is first round pick Josh Allen, while New Mexico State lost two of their best offensive players in school history and their quarterback. Even with Allen, Wyoming was 125th in offense last year and this group will be far more experienced and presumably will play better. Both teams return a number of defensive starters but Wyoming's might be the best in MWC and Top 5 in all of the West.

The Cowboys have not always thrived in the role as road favorites and are 5-10 ATS since 2007, but New Mexico State is 2-8 ATS in their first lined home game of a new campaign and 16-25-2 ATS as a home underdog the last decade. Both teams have to find quarterbacks, but I'll side with Wyoming because their personnel losses were not as steep and they have a sounder all-around squad. Wyoming by 6 or more.  

St. Louis is blistering hot with an 18-4 record this month. At this exact moment, only Oakland is close to them of late. J. Gant is nothing great, but G. Marquez has an ERA over 6 at Coors and is backed by a poor bullpen and the Cards are 17-3 after a 5-game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better this season. 

Oakland got back on track yesterday and with M. Fiers I expect them to continue to roll. Let's keep this simple, The A's are 41-13 playing against a team with a losing record, the Twins are 12-30 playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. 

It is a given Baltimore is outstanding in the preseason under Harbaugh and they are 9-1 ATS the last three years. Miami comes into this contest 1-9 ATS in home games after two or more losses against the spread. Also, home teams when the line is +3 to -3,  off a road loss, winning 25% or less of their games in the preseason are 5-20 ATS. Ravens by 7. 

Tennessee has been horrible thus far and I don't see them getting well against Pittsburgh away from home. My Super system says underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like TENNESSEE, after allowing seven or more passing yards per attempt in two straight games are a deplorable 4-21 ATS. Steelers by 10. 

Though not 100 percent healthy, Houston has as many able bodies as they have had in some time and just won a big series at Seattle. The offense has put together three double-digit hit games in their last four and seems to be coming back around. The money is on the Astros, who have been jettisoned from -140 to -165 against Andrew Heaney (7-7, 4.11) and the Angels. There is conjecture Mike Trout could return tonight, which would lower the line, but with the 'Stros 38-13 as a road favorite of -125 or more and 9-0 away after a game where they had 17 or more hits and they have to get the call.

As I have stated several times, I don't like to make things too complicated during NFLX. Both teams have something to prove and should be motivated to play well. Because both teams play in the same stadium, somebody has to be the 'road' team and that is the Giants this. With the visitor a remarkable 11-0-1 ATS, I'm not bucking that trend as the G-Men win. 

I am quickly becoming a non-fan of the Denver coach, but I'll let that go this contest. I'm already less of a fan of Jay Gruden and I see the Broncos wanting to avoid being 0-3, especially coming off a game in which they should have won handily last week. With Denver 13-0 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite, let's call for them to win outright. 

For all intents and purposes, Tampa Bay has one true starting pitcher in Blake Snell and is 12th in the AL in runs scored, yet is six games over .500. Their unconventional approach has worked and they have seen their odds slide against the baseball best team from +140 to +125. Diego Castillo (3-2, 3.37 ERA) will be the Rays "starter" and Boston counters with Hector Velazquez (7-1, 2.74), who will have a somewhat similar role, but the Red Sox hope he goes a few more innings. Tampa Bay has a shot since they are 11-5 as home underdogs of +125 or larger, but the BoSox are 9-0 after seven or more home games.

I'm a big Kyle Freeland fan and he and the Rockies are 9-2 at Coors. Plus, Play Against NL underdogs with a money line of +150 or more like SAN DIEGO, hitting team .255 or lower, against an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or lower, whose batting .225 or worse over their last 10 games. Since 2014, these underdogs are 20-93! 

J. Gray is dialed in and really pitching well and he and his teammates have won his last eight starts. The Padres come into this contest 3-11 against the run line off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, while the Rocks are a convincing 11-2 against the run line after two straight games where they stranded five or less runners on base this season. 

Evidently, Boston is not as bulletproof as most thought, losers of three in a row for the first time since April and losing both games at home to Cleveland. With Carlos Carrasco (15-6, 3.33) taking the mound for the Indians, the Tribe opened as a -125 favorite but has slid to -110. Brian Johnson (4-3, 4.00) will be the Red Sox starter and he's 3-0 this month. It is hard to conceive Boston would be swept at home even against a pitcher as tough as Carrasco because of their 71-27 record against RH starters and 44-18 mark at Fenway.

Oakland is strictly play on or pass right now and they are playing with absolute confidence. They have won 14 in a row against losing teams. And road underdogs like Texas of +150 or more, hitting .260 or lower against an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or lower, with a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits a start, are 44-133 the last 21 years. 

Strong pitching matchup with C. Kluber vs. R. Porcello. Kluber should be able to tame Boston bats who have not scored in 17 straight innings and the Indians are  21-9 UNDER in road games having won four of their last five games. Kluber has also allowed just four runs in 22+ innings against the Red Sox. Porcello has been a bit up and down of late but pitched well in the big games and is 14-4 UNDER at home against winning teams of late. I'll call for a 4-2, 4-3 final score and an UNDER play. 

For MLB picks, Philadelphia has my vote. New York and Vargas are 2-12 in his last 14 starts and the Phils are 19-7 against losing teams. As long as Pivetta gets off to a good start, the Phillies bats should do the rest.

The Giants offense has been pathetic in averaging 2.3 RPG of late. The Cincy offense has come alive of late with 10 or more hits in four of their last five outings. San Fran starter A. Suarez has a 6.06 ERA in his last six starts. I'll take the Reds who are 8-2 after seven or more home games and the Giants 11-25 after four or more road games. 

The Bears have been terrible with seven turnovers in two games. While they might not keep up that pace, they are clearly having problems moving to more tempo offense with RPO elements involved. Whether it was starters or not, the Denver defense should not allow 42 points at home like they did last week. Look for an inspired Broncos defense, for a team that is 13-1 ATS off a home loss, versus Chicago who is 5-11 ATS on the road. Denver by at least 7.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

Flying with the Redbirds again who are just playing better baseball them Milwaukee.  M. Mikolas has been a stud for the Cardinals and  NL road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like MILWAUKEE, hitting .255 or lower, against an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start are 39-103 since 2015. 

Seattle has a run differential of San Francisco and little by little they are creeping back to what they really are, a pretty good team, but not a playoff one. Since the sweep of Houston, the Mariners have scored 11 runs in four games and they are 1-8 in home games after a loss by six runs or more and a lousy 3-10 in August home games since last year. With R. Hill of the Dodgers 13-3 in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse (Team's record), it's L.A. 

Though the Cards win streak was snapped, I still like this team right now. Besides this, I think J. Flaherty is in better overall form than F. Peralta. The Redbirds have rebounded from tough defeats and is 13-3 after a one run loss this season. 

Teams, even in the NFL preseason don't like being embarrassed. That is why I like Atlanta at home to come back and bring the emotion as a collective group after being hammered 17-0 nothing last week. Keep these in mind, the Falcons are 13-3 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points, while Kansas City is 6-18 ATS off a home loss.

I was impressed with how Nix pitched for the Padres in his debut, but C. Buchholz has thrown well all year. After a good stretch against quality teams, San Diego was swept by the Angels and come into this contest,  2-13 at home after scoring four runs or less in three straight games and 1-12 at home games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.15 or better this season.

Everyone thinks the Redskins suck and they are losing players as fast as quarterbacks are leaving LSU. While you cannot read a whole lot about NFLX results, the Redskins lead New England 17-10 going into the fourth quarter before being blitzed 16-0. Everyone was all excited about the Jets last week but that was at home and with Jay Gruden the No.6 pick on first coach to be fired at sportsbooks, he and his team need a victory of any kind.  Plus, Washington is on an 8-1 ATS in first NFLX home game, while Gang Green is 1-6 ATS in initial NFLX roadie. 

Real simple, Cleveland is hot in all facets, offense, defense and fielding. Reds offense has gone ice cold in averaging 3.0 RPG in last seven outings. Plus, NL underdogs with a money line of +150 or more like the Reds, scoring 4.5 or more runs a game, after scoring three runs or less in two straight games, are awful 14-68 since 2014. 

I'm no C. Archer fan and he's 2-10 in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season the last two seasons. (Team's Record) In addition, J. Berrios and the Twins are 8-3 at home and Minny is 8-0 in home games vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season the last two years. 

J. Barria pitching well for the Halos and I think he can contain Padres lineup. Angels offense is surviving without Trout and get this, they are 15-1 vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season the last 20 years. 

Oakland slowed Seattle last night, ending their four-game winning streak, but Mariners cut a 7-1 deficit to one in the last two innings before falling. James Paxton (10-5, 3.63) will try and bring Seattle closer in the standings to the A's. Paxton struck out a career-high 16 batters against Oakland on May 2, throwing seven shutout innings and that is enough to change baseball bettor's minds, moving the M's from -110 to -125. Oakland will not go easy, since their starter, Mike Fiers (7-6, 3.40), has been, well, on fire, lowering his ERA more than a run the past two months. But Fiers has an ERA over 6 versus Seattle and the Mariners are 15-7 at Oak-Town. 

Philadelphia split a pair with Boston at Fenway and the lone defeat was 2-1. While the Red Sox are the best team in baseball, those betting baseball have dropped Boston from -150 to under -130 in the City of Brotherly Love. Rick Porcello (14-5, 4.17) is back to his Detroit days, with nobody certain with how he will pitch start to start. The Phils Nick Pivetta (7-9, 4.51) is not exactly like taxes (something you can count on), so that makes this another nasty pick. Let's take the best team in baseball, who is 43-20 on the road and know that Porcello and the BoSox are 10-0 in interleague action the last two seasons. 

M. Mikolas continues to shine for the Cardinals at 12-3 and he's one the top bets for pitchers at +7.3 units this season. St. Louis is playing excellent baseball right now and won five straight series. Washington should have swept the Cubs but their bullpen gave two away and last night's was a "Tommy Boy" special for the Nats, "That's going to leave a mark."

Another pitcher at the end of the line is B. Colon. In the last two years, the team's he's started for are 3-16 as an underdog of +125 to +175. Arizona woke up yesterday after two crummy games at Cincinnati. Z. Greinke pitches for the Snakes and this combo is 21-6 against losing teams.

M. Clevinger might only have a .500 record but he has a 3.37 ERA, but he's been even sharper of late and he's down to 2.69 ERA on the road. The Reds H. Bailey, he and his team are 1-14 in his starts this year and in last awful outing, he first blamed a faulty scouting report before kind of blaming himself. Good spot for Tribe scalping. 

Banking on D. Rodriguez to continue to pitch well for the Giants, who are 8-3 when he takes the ball. His success plays in this: road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like the Pirates, with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last three games, against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.50 over his last five starts, are 34-111 in since 2014.