The Purple Aces are tough at home and Illinois State has spotty offense.

Eagles backcourt can dominate Richmond.

South Florida went toe to toe on the road with unbeaten Central Florida, but lost in the waning moments by seven. If you have not seen Quinton Flowers play quarterback, you have to watch. Flowers runs the No.9 offense in the country that is equally adept at running (265 YPG) as it is at passing (243 YPG). Flowers is a true dual threat and the running backs and receivers have outstanding speed and they do everything in a hurry, averaging 84 plays a game. South Florida's defensive looked good in allowing 343 YPG and should know what to expect. South Florida has edges they can exploit against a pedestrian Texas Tech defense with their speed. Plus, Flowers gives the Bulls a decided edge at quarterback.

Charlotte and Milwaukee do a home and home the next two nights, starting in the Brew City. The Hornets have been scuffling for some time now and are 2-11 and 3-8-2 ATS on the road. The Bucks are off ego-building win over Cleveland in which they built a big lead, lost it all but were clutch in the last two minutes. I think this carries over playing at home and Milwaukee's finest is 28-13 ATS at home games after a combined score of 215 points or more in two straight games. Bucks by 8 or more. 

The Chippewas were 8-4 and 7-5 ATS this year and closed their season white-hot with a 5-0 SU and ATS finish. What changed for the Chips, their offense found another gear. Against mostly stronger competition, Central Michigan averaged mere 21.8 points a contest. They enter this bowl contest on a major roll at 41.2 PPG. What set the table was the continued development of the running game, which averaged 178 YPG, after being at 119.5 YPG. This will be important against Wyoming who has been somewhat vulnerable to the rush in allowing 172 YPG. The Chippewas were 5-2 SU and ATS on the road this season, which usually matters in bowls and they are 9-2 ATS after two or more straight spread winners.

While the Final Four participants will be excited to play their games, I'm not sure a there will be squad more ready to play than UAB. With a football program that was closed down, coach Bill Clark never lost faith, the Blazers were born again and were 8-4 SU and ATS. This is a treat beyond words for them and this is their chance to say thanks for all that never gave up hope. Ohio U. lost their last two games and chance to win the MAC East and while the Bahamas is a nice secondary place to play, not certain about the Bobcats intensity. Also MAC bowl teams are 4-15 ATS off a loss by six or less points. Look for UAB to slide under the oddsmakers number in a three-point game either way. 

Idaho has a veteran squad back, shoots the three-ball well and plays defense. These are characteristics UC-Irvine has struggled against this season. In addition, favorites  like the Vandals off an upset win by 15 points or more as a road underdog, against opponent off two or more road losses, are 10-2 ATS the past three years. 

I have really been impressed with the speed of several C-USA teams and no doubt FIU being from Florida has the same qualities. Temple is a nice club, but they lost six times for a reason. Also, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like FIU, after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games are a sharp 32-9 ATS.

Here is why I am on Tampa Bay. Home favorites of -200 to -300, after allowing four goals or more, against opponent after scoring three goals or more in three straight games are 103-21, 83.1%. Plus the Lightning are 10-0 after two or more consecutive Over's this season. 

Basically same winning situation as last week (Mavs) with Golden State. Warriors facing team that has trouble scoring and pulls away for the cover. 

Valpo is solid club and faces 3-7 UC-Riverside who is 1-8 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more the last three seasons, losing by 11 PPG.

Toronto playing excellent basketball while Charlotte continues to struggle. Dinosaurs are 19-8 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in three straight games.

I have long been a fan of Oakland University and there coach Greg Kampe. I liked how the Golden Grizzlies play on both ends of the floor and they are entertaining to watch. Unfortunately, the recruiting has fallen off a bit and Oakland U. is not getting the same kinds of athletes they were a few seasons ago and that plays a part into 6-5 (3-5 ATS) start to the season. No question, Oakland facing Syracuse, Kansas and Michigan State has not helped their record.

Sportsbooks have sent out the Golden Grizzlies as four-point favorites over Towson. The Tigers are expected to finish in the Top 3 of the Colonial (CAA) and have reeled off 10 straight wins after losing season opener. Towson has not played nearly as arduous a schedule as Oakland, but shoots 47.3 percent and connects on highly effective 39.4 percent of three's. The Tigers have a +8 edge in rebounding and have held opposing teams to 37 percent accuracy.

Will playing less challenging slate hurt Towson tonight, possibly. Nevertheless, the Tigers are 12-4 ATS after two or more wins the last two seasons and I like their chances of reaching 6-1 ATS on this season.

With St. Mary's 0-3 ATS at home this season and Dayton 6-0 ATS on the road against teams making 48 percent or more of shot attempts, the Gaels have slide from -11 to -8.5. I will disagree with this line movement because I do not believe the Flyers are up to usual standards this year and I am not a fan of coach Anthony Grant. Also, all three of St. Mary's non-covers were by 17 or more points. I will back the Gaels in this matchup, who win by 12 or more.

Cavs on 18-1 SU run and are short favorite against a Bucks team that has little depth with injuries and is poor defensively. Unless Giannis Antetokounmpo goes off, Cleveland the play. 

Ducks waddling and Rangers solid at home.

Minnesota has been quite inconsistent and Jimmy Butler is going to try and play with back issue. Portland is 4-0 ATS on the road trip and winners of the last three. The Blazers defense has been sharp and they are 12-2 ATS in away games off an upset win as an underdog and finish the trip on a high note. 

Baltimore had to be immensely disappointed they failed to knock off Pittsburgh when they had the chance Sunday night. Nonetheless, there were several positives. Joe Flacco and the passing offense showed a pulse and the offensive line whipped Pittsburgh in running the ball for 152 yards. The Browns have in recent games done a great deal right, but crucial mistakes are destroying them. With a 3-10 ATS record this season and 2-9 ATS as a home underdog of seven points or less hard to see Cleveland changing much again versus Ravens defense.

After being run over by the Rams the previous week, Arizona could have lost to first place Tennessee and hardly anyone would have noticed. But the Cardinals showed moxie and determination and "kicked" the Titans 12-7, thanks to four field goals. Arizona can continue drive to finish with a winning record in Washington, but it should be noted they are 1-5 ATS on the road this season. That might not be a problem if the Redskins put up a third stinky performance. Washington has numerous injuries and has played like a team mailing it in the past two weeks, which reflects poorly on coach Jay Gruden. Let's remember, home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like the Redskins, allowing 24 or more points a game, after a loss by 10 or more points, are 11-33 ATS since 2008.

The Rebels are running again and they are betting shooting team, average seven more shoot attempts, rebound better and play stronger defense.

Even in the loss to the New York Jets, you could see Kansas City was going to find a victory soon and they did at home against Oakland with ease. The L.A. Chargers will not be as soft as a comforter, like the Raiders for the Chiefs. Philip Rivers is back to his salty self and with receivers having returned, the Bolts offense (and defense) has gone into another gear during this four-game winning streak in averaging 32.7 PPG and their talented defensive front seven has shut off opposing running games like a faucet the past three contests. I am well aware the Chargers have dropped seven in a row to K.C., nevertheless, they look like the better club and take control of the AFC West with a win and cover.

On my video I said be patient on Camellia Bowl total because it could keep dropping and it has. Look for both teams to score at least 30 points for easy OVER.

Went against Charlotte last night and coming right back at them. The Hornets are having shooting problems and are 5-15 ATS in home games playing on back-to-back days the last three seasons. Blazers outright!

Top team that will grind Oklahoma down over 40 minutes.

The Cure Bowl will not be laden with excitement with Georgia State taking on Western Kentucky. Nonetheless, for my money the edge go to the Hilltoppers.  Georgia State was outscored 270-217 this season and having watched them twice, their quarterback is either fairly accurate or not at all, especially when facing pass rush. Western Kentucky was not up to its usual standards offensively, having problems in the red zone and with turnovers. However, Mike White is still a good quarterback and his team should be able to put up at least 30 points on a not so speedy defense. All three of my models have the Hilltoppers winning by at least nine points and I will back that up. 

Drake just lost by one at Minnesota despite shooting 36.5%. Iowa is just another team that turns the ball over a great deal and Drake is 11-2 ATS versus teams  outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game the last three seasons. 

Veteran Hokies team will not be intimidated at Kentucky and they average 5 more three's per game.

Very solid club shooting 53% and Milwaukee is 0-7 ATS vs. teams connecting on 46% or higher.

Charlotte has lost eight of 10 and is 3-6-1 ATS and not played well at all. Miami has not been great in losing five of eight, but there offense has stabilized in last four games and there is not any good reason the Hornets will shoot better this evening. The Heat just lost to Portland and is 16-5 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite the last three seasons. All my numbers have this as one or two-point outcome!

Despite some injuries, I think Golden State has more than enough to put Dallas away. As is the case with the Warriors, Durant and Thompson spearhead the team and bench players relish the extra playing time, especially. A couple of my power ratings have Golden State by 15 and I concur. 

Anyone betting hockey knows how bad Arizona is this season at 7-26. Tampa Bay is the complete opposite at 22-8 and against goalies with a save percentage of 91.5 percent, they are 10-2. Finally, make opposing the team from the Western Conference, Tampa Bay is superb 11-1. 

Blues coming off shutout and they are 6-0 after playing game in which three or fewer goals were scored. Plus, Anaheim is injury-riddled; great situation for St. Louis. 

The Clips have not been very good all year, but they have won their last two contests and are facing a very depleted Orlando team who has to rely on bench players tonight. With the Clippers gathering a little momentum and having beaten the Magic seven times in a row, L.A. wins this one.

The Golden Knights are super 11-2 at home and Carolina is dismal 2-13 in road games against teams  outscoring their opponents by 0.3+ goals a game.

If you follow the Racers, almost every year they score points and this year they are over 84 PPG. What make Murray State a better quality team is when they play defense and this group is holding foes to 39.7% shooting. With St. Louis a horrible shooting club and 3-11 ATS after three consecutive non-conference games, it is Murray State by 6 or more. 

Edmonton is going with backup goalie who is 2-6 this season as a starter, while Columbus has owned this month with recent 17-2 December record since last year.

Cleveland is 2-11 ATS as home favorite and 0-8 ATS when handing out 10 or more points. Atlanta slides under number. 

The Bearcats have lost two straight and Miss. State is 8-0, but the Bulldogs have played the third-easiest schedule out of 351 teams and this is their FIRST away game. Cincy by at least 15. 

I like where Baltimore is going but Pittsburgh has endured a rough week. With reports Ryan Shazier might be done playing football, the Steelers rally around their fallen teammate and beat Ravens by 13. 

Lose one game in one of the most difficult places to play in the NFL and suddenly you are a bum. OK, maybe I'm taking this a little too far, but how else do you explain that Philadelphia was considered the best team in the NFL last Sunday afternoon and now they are a rising road underdog to the L.A. Rams. Of course I realize the Rams are a very good team, but I did not get the notice they suddenly have a home field advantage unless those that came dressed as empty seats the past two years have been closet fans. Plus, do not overlook the Eagles performance last week. Yes, they lost turnover battle 2-0, yet they hardly played poorly in outgaining the Seahawks by 115 total yards. Philly is 9-3 ATS this season and 13-3 ATS vs. teams scoring 29 or more points a game in the second half of the season.

With Houston 1-5 SU in past six games, it might have been a bit disconcerting to see them climb from -1 to -3 (now -2.5) even against San Francisco. Sure the 49ers lost their initial first eight contests, but they have won two of three and are making strides. Besides, if you saw the highlights of Houston's game, they had players dropping left and right to injury. But here is a question for you as a football bettor, do you really believe the Niners can win two straight road games after surprising Chicago? I certainly do not and San Fran is  0-7 ATS vs. teams scoring 24 or more points a game.

We all understand the G-Men stink and are a rotten team, yet when you factor in coaching change, Manning unquestionably will be laser-focused and it is home game against Dallas, anything less than New York's best effort would be a stunner. G-Men cover, maybe win outright.

Portland State is 7-0 ATS and wins outright.

Spurs are 10-0 UNDER teams allowing 106+ points/game and 8-0 UNDER in road games when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season. 

K- State by 14

Utah by 10

Lightning wins by 2 goals.

Akron by 6.

Wizards by 6.

The Army/Navy game always holds a certain appeal and now it has more gusto with both teams having winning records again and Black Knights finally ending long losing streak in last year's battle. I will admit, I always have pulled for the Army, not sure exactly why, but have not bet on them many times over the years in this matchup. That will change in this year's contest. As noted in the game previews here, this is the lowest Navy (-3.5) has been favored in this game in 15 years. Army has covered six of the last eight meetings and they have gone from a team hoping they could win, to knowing they can after last year. The Black Knights of the Hudson outright.

Valpo Wins Outright.

Central Mich. by 8 or more.

Iowa is surprisingly bad and in their six lined games this season is allowing 80 PPG. That will not work in Ames and the Hawkeyes are 2-9 ATS in road games versus teams making 45% or more of their shots. Cyclones by 10.

More of a play against Arizona who is just a terrible club. Boston lost last contest to red-hot Nashville squad, but they have won six of eight and the Coyotes are 1-16 in road games revenging a home loss by three or more goals.

One of the best home teams in football has blown up as a home underdog. That is correct, Seattle has been sent from +3.5 to +6 (now +5.5) versus the best team in the NFL, Philadelphia. The last time the Seahawks were a home underdog was 2012, 47 games ago (includes playoffs). A lot of pride in that Seattle uniform, making this a field goal or less outcome.

I went against Carolina and lost last week. Lessoned learned. As I mentioned here last week, Carolina was my favorite win totals pick for the season and now I just need one more victory in five games to secure a winner. That could very well happen this Sunday. The Panthers were tested by the Jets in was a flat game for them and they still prevailed. While revenge is hardly a sole reason to back any team, I think it matters this week since Carolina was smacked 34-13 at home by New Orleans. This Carolina club more closely resembles the one that went to the Super Bowl almost two years ago, with a defense that can take away offensive layers and offense that is continuing to evolve. While I really am impressed with the Saints have accomplished, with the chance of having three defensive starters out or at least a couple not close to 100 percent, the Panthers at +5.5 is too good to pass up. 

Wide receiver Keenan Allen return for the Chargers Philip Rivers was like getting the band back together. The Los Angeles offense the past couple weeks has functioned more like when Rivers was younger and Allen presence has freed up other players, with Rivers is taking full advantage of this. With Cleveland the second-worst defensive team in allowing points at 26.3 PPG, it would seem Carson, CA's favorite football team should exploit this. With the total at 43, the Browns have shown the ability to give points away and score in the fourth quarter of games that are over, which could provide a backdoor cover if necessary. Additionally, road teams like Cleveland scoring 17 or less points a game, after tallying that many or less in two straight contests are 28-5 OVER the next time out. 

Among the lowest scoring teams in the league are San Francisco at 17 points a game and Chicago right behind them at 16.1 PPG. In spite of this, neither team has played an inordinate amount of low scoring contests, though the Bears are close at 7-4 UNDER. However, if you subtract each club's highest scoring total in their past five outings, the Niners come in at 10.7 PPG and Chicago at 11.7 PPG. Maybe Jimmy Garoppolo provides a spark for San Fran, but the average score for both teams in road/home situations is below 40 points, which leads to an UNDER play. 

No lack of motivation for unbeaten Wisconsin, being an underdog against 10-2 Ohio State. The Badgers are in the college football playoff with a victory and while it is probably true the Buckeyes have better overall talent, against the same six foes each team played, Ohio State only had 0.2 PPG edge. Both teams offenses starts by running the ball and while the Buckeyes will get their fair share of yards, Wisconsin's defense allowed 54 YPG in November, for 1.7 YPC. Also, as long as QB Alex Hornibrook does not start making poor choices throwing, the Badgers can cover the six points. Big Ten title game dogs are perfect 6-0 ATS!

An Auburn sweep of Georgia all but assures they will be the first team with two losses in the College Football Playoffs, yet considering who they would have beaten, not many will complain. One major difference, no home cooking for the Tigers, as the crowd will be pro-Georgia in Atlanta. Auburn is the hottest team in the country and has shown they can win the line of scrimmage against the Bulldogs and they have a hot QB in Jarrett Stidham. If Georgia has anywhere close the same problems in the trenches, they will be beat again. But I do not think they will and with coach Kirby Smart off the Saban coaching tree, you know this week has been intense for the linemen. Look for the Dawgs to create third and short on offense and third and long on defense to win and my guess is Auburn's Kerryon Johnson's shoulder injury is a real deal. After thinking they blew chance to reach CFP, Georgia advances with victory.

TCU coach Gary Patterson was hoping for another shot at Oklahoma, firmly convinced the mistakes made in trailing Oklahoma 38-14 at the half were correctable and also having setting away from Norman. This is still not a good matchup for the Horned Frogs with top two running backs gone for the year and QB Kenny Hill not in the same class as Baker Mayfield as a big game performer. And it will not help standout safety Nick Orr will miss first half because of targeting call in last game. The Sooners loss to Iowa State reset their mental focus and the Oklahoma offense is all but unstoppable against Big 12 competition. Boomer Sooner by 12.

If you plan on watching the AAC championship, you better set aside most of the afternoon. Central Florida and Memphis have tremendous offenses and are the Top 2 scoring teams in the country. UCF has never lost to Memphis, with a perfect 10-0 record (6-4 ATS), which includes a 40-13 stomping back in September in Orlando. In that contest, the Tigers lost the turnover battle 3-1 and to win this championship they will have to flip that number in their favor. All the pressure is on UCF at home and they have only covered one of their last four contests, while Memphis is rolling since losing to the Knights with a 7-0 and 6-1 ATS (spread loss was by half point) record and road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, in a game involving two teams averaging 440 or more YPG, after gaining 525 or more YPG over their last three outings, are 33-9 ATS.               

In many cases, a large favorite like Florida Atlantic at home in a conference championship, in which they won previous contest by 38 points, would lead to football bettor preferring the underdog. Complacency would seep in being at home and though they might win, they would fail to cover. I do not see that happening with Lane Kiffin, because he wants all the credit he can garner and going to a school like Florida Atlantic that was picked to finish 3rd to 5th in their division in Conference USA, only boosts Kiffin's stock. That is not the only rationale, as the Owls have the nation's No.6 rushing offense and averages 6.0 yards a carry, while the North Texas defense permits over 200 yards a game rushing and 4.8 YPC. FAU wins the C-USA title by 14 or more points. 

Tigers holding up well without Porter and is better squad than most realize. Important key in my mind, Central Florida cannot shoot from behind the arc, making three a game at just over 21%. Mizzo by 7 or more.

After finally waking up, Cleveland has been playing much better defense which has fueled nine-game winning streak. The Cavs have everything they need to take out Atlanta offensively and as long they keep up same defensive effort, they should be good and win by 10 or more. 

Both these teams are 10-10 and their matchup opened as a Pick. Later, oddsmakers adjusted Miami to a two- point favorite and also pushed the total up two digits to 203. (since changed) The Heat is 6-5 SU and ATS on the road this season and is on a 6-0 SU and ATS run at Madison Square Garden against the Knicks, winning by whopping 16.5 PPG. The Under is 5-1 in those contests. However, this is a better New York squad, who has played very well at home with 9-4 and 10-3 ATS mark. For my money, this looks like a matching pair, either Miami and Under or New York and Over. I'll say the Knicks finally get their revenge. 

Wake Forest is 2-4 and only favored because they are home. Illini have more skillful and veteran team and is Illinois is 9-1 ATS after scoring 85 points or more in three straight games. Illini outright!

The Islanders have won 11 of 13 on home ice off a road game. 

Rangers have gotten into good groove in winning 10 of 12. 

Two of the three shutouts Baltimore has have come against backup quarterbacks and this week they face Tom Savage, whose had a penchant for turnovers. In Houston's last four outings, they have 10 turnovers, which could be a Ravens feast! The Texans defense has been beatable all year in surrendering 26.2 PPG and this seems a great time to feed RB Alex Collins the rock, which would help Joe Flacco in the passing game. With Flacco and the Birds 6-0 ATS after winning by 20+ points and Houston 1-9 ATS under the Monday night lights, it's Baltimore by double digits. 

Philadelphia has the top scoring offense in the NFL at 32 PPG and they are 6-4 OVER on the season, so where does the idea of a lower score come into play? The Chicago defense has not played poorly and is middle of the pack at 22.1 PPG allowed. Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense has piled up the points, yet I wonder off big Dallas victory and having a three-game road trip on deck starting in Seattle, if we will Philly at its best. The Bears are 27th in ringing up points at 17.4 PPG and it would take quite an imagination to think they will push past that figure, with Philadelphia holding opponents to 16.6 PPG in last half dozen contests. 

Marcus Mariota might not be the franchise quarterback Tennessee envisioned after deplorable performance in Pittsburgh. Mariota had four interceptions and played like a rookie instead of a three-year veteran who knows the ropes. The Titans have four winnable contests on tap starting this week but can you really trust a team that is 6-15 ATS in road games and 0-7 ATS away after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored? One can only assume that Andrew Luck will be ready for 2018 campaign. While that is in the future, Jacoby Brissett has established himself as someone who can play at this level and though he makes mistakes, he's made strides to make the Colts more competitive than anyone would have imagined. Also, the Indianapolis defense has stepped there play and held last three opponents to 19.3 PPG. Indy by 1!

This is not your typical Air Force team. They are not running the triple option with normal precision and have committed at least two turnovers in seven of their 11 contests. During their current three-game losing streak, the Flyboys are being outscored 31-11. Utah State on the other hand is playing well and are 3-1 SU and ATS, with only setback to Boise State, which is hardly a disgrace. With the Falcons a two-point favorite and being 3-11 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half, let's call for Utah State to win the game. 

After betting against South Carolina in opener versus N.C. State, the Gamecocks caught my eye in how they played and what they do right. After that I wagered with them three other times, all as underdogs and cashed three tickets. South Carolina is taking care of the details on offense and defense which keeps them in contests. They convert on the big third downs and play great defense when they need that same third down stop. While I believe Clemson is the better squad, in spite of rivalry game, this means far more to the Gamecocks with the Tigers playing for a third consecutive ACC title and realistically having an opponent who can really challenge them in Miami. Because the game is in Columbia, the home team players will be talking about last year's 56-7 beat down and be ready to play and cover the number. 

This contest is known as - The Civil War - and based on the fact Oregon is 25-point favorite, this should not be much of a contest in Eugene. Oregon State's 58-27 loss to pedestrian Colorado State club in their opener set the table for a rotten season at 1-10 (3-8 ATS). The Beavers defense is being shredded for 40.6 PPG which would be disastrous against Oregon. The Ducks got their regular starting quarterback Justin Herbert back from a broken collarbone and they ambushed Arizona 48-28 last week. When Hebert has played, Oregon has averaged 49.3 PPG and Oregon State is not built for shootouts.

Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points like ILLINOIS, after allowing 37 points or more in last game, against opponent after allowing seven points or less in the first half of two straight games, are awful 9-39 ATS. 

N.C. State is a deserving 16-point home favorite over their cross-state rivals North Carolina. The Wolfpack have the better offense and defense coming in this contest and should handle the Tar Heels with ease. However, after starting 6-1, N.C. State has dropped three off four and while there is nothing wrong with losing to Notre Dame and Clemson, if the Wolfpack was really that good, they should not have struggled with Boston College and lost to Wake Forest the last couple games. On the other end of the spectrum, UNC is coming off consecutive wins and is on a 3-0 ATS run which, includes a cover over Miami-Fl. While I am not calling for upset, the Heels are 8-4 SU and ATS in Raleigh and cover the spread.

Currently, there is four-way tie for first place in the Sun Belt Conference and either visiting Appalachian State or Georgia State will remain in the hunt after this confrontation. Both teams are rested and coming off byes. The Mountaineers average 30.7 PPG on the season, yet when on the road, the offense is not as potent and they slide to 25 PPG. Additionally, on defense, App. State allows better than 11 PPG more away from home, which all leads to disappointing 0-5 ATS road record. Though Georgia State's pass offense is good enough to be ranked 28th nationally, they only average 21.9 PPG (26.3 PPG in SBC), but they are capable of outburst and I will call for them to win this skirmish outright.  

The Commonwealth Clash features two teams not playing their best football of the season. Virginia Tech has lost two of three and not covered their past three games. Virginia has dropped four of five and been turning the ball over with great regularity. So who the edge, the Cavaliers. The Hokies have NOTHING to play for, Virginia, oh, just losing 13 in a row to their state rival, that's all. Home underdogs in this spread and total range have covered 22 of the last 32 times this has come up and this is three-point game either way. 

The first game of the day is Minnesota at Detroit and if the Lions have any hope of chasing down the Vikings it has to win this contest. If Detroit does not win, they would be three games behind Minnesota in the NFC North race and join the masses in the NFC trying to hunt down a wild card slot. Those betting football are not liking the Lions chances and have pushed them from a Pick to +3. Minnesota is one of the top teams in their conference and are No.5 in the NFL in total offense and No.4 in total defense. While Detroit is expected to play the Vikings close, Minnesota is 11-2 ATS after three or more consecutive spread covers. Vikes by 6

Notre Dame covers

Bucks Cover

Nashville Wins

#102  Akron -15

Back in sync on offense, Kent State down.

#742 Texas A&M -4

They are good enough to win the SEC.

#739 Oklahoma St. -12

Pittsburgh is really awful.

Talk about bad timing. If Oakland could ever use a home game, this would have been the week, coming off a bye, trying to make a playoff push and taking on New England. Instead, they surrendered another matchup to Mexico City. With the Patriots staying at altitude this week in Denver before traveling south, they will look forward to Raiders defense that 22nd against pass and has yet to register an interception. New England is incredible 9-2 ATS as away favorites. Though the Raiders had questions coming into the season after 12-4 campaign, now there is even more and the solutions are not evident besides the clichéd, "everyone has to play better". Patriots by 12.

When I first saw this game I was going to pass on two slumping 3-6 teams. Then I started working the numbers. Turns out in all six scenarios, they have Denver winning by 5 to 7 points. While it might not be my favorite game of the week, it would be foolish by me to ignore the numbers.

With a victory at Lambeau Field, Baltimore is in the thick of the wild card race at 5-5. There is nothing striking about the Ravens, being a better than average defensive crew and below average offensive team with Joe Flacco rather ordinary and not having many game-changing players to alter scoreboards quickly. Flacco has averaged 5.38 yards per attempt on the road this season, worst in NFL. Since the start of the 2015 season, Flacco has thrown 21 interceptions away from home, tied for second most in the league. Baltimore opened as favorites, yet are 1-8-1 ATS in nonconference contests since 2015. When coach Mike McCarthy finally took the shackles of Brett Hundley in crucial fourth quarter against Chicago, he responded with three sharp passes and running for first down. Packers win at Lambeau.

In Los Angeles, the winner of the Victory Bell is a really big deal in this cross-town rivalry. Nationally, the game itself is not particularly important, however, what makes this storied rivalry worth watching is the quarterback clash of Sam Darnold against Josh Rosen. Though Rosen will have a chance to shine, chances are he will be in usual come from behind mode. The UCLA defense is among the worst in the country, ranked 123rd in points allowed (38.6 PPG) and 124th in yards allowed (499). With USC having stopped turning the ball over three times a game, with just two in assembling 3-0 SU and ATS win streak, I do not see how the Bruins end up being within 20 points and the Trojans win 51-28.

Sometimes you just have to follow the numbers. Missouri has won four in a row, covered six straight and has outscored the opposition by eye-popping 37.2 PPG. (not a misprint) In this period the Tigers offense has averaged 53.7 PPG. Vanderbilt on the other hand has lost six of seven (1-5-1 ATS) after 3-0 start to the season. All six setbacks have come in the SEC where they have been carved up like Thanksgiving turkey for 46.1 PPG. In putting these numbers together for comparison, it is not real difficult to see what is the right side to back.

I think oddsmakers had it right to begin with, making Marshall a -1.5 point road favorite. Since Tuesday, the money has flowed towards UTSA, who is now at -1. Statistically, the teams are very similar, with the Roadrunners have an overall better defense, thought some the numbers have come against a weaker schedule. Drilling down we find Marshall is as good edge on both sides of the ball in a category known as - Yards Per Point. Basically whatthis tells us is the Thundering Herd is more efficient on offense and stingier on defense. Now let's close this out with Marshall 4-1 ATS on the road this season and UTSA is 0-4 ATS at home, which is hard to ignore.

Central Florida is three wins away from undefeated 12-0 season and returning to a Super Six bowl for the first time in four years. The Knights have the top scoring team in the country at 48.6 PPG and their defense is no slouch in permitting only 20.7 PPG. Still there are signs of stress since they are handing over two touchdown spread on the road to Temple. UCF has not covered a spread since Oct. 14th (0-2-1 ATS) and they are facing Owls crew who has improved since September and is 5-1 ATS, after 0-4 spread start. Temple has the passing offense to stay in the game and if the Knights allow 199 or more rushing yards like they have in past five games (on average), the Owls can put a scare into them.

After holding four straight Big 12 foes to 27 total points, TCU was torched for 38 points in 30 minutes against Oklahoma. The Horned Frogs mission is to win out and get another shot against the Sooners in Big 12 championship. TCU did not figure to have an easy time with Texas Tech on the road as they have permitted 32.2 PPG against the four best offenses they have taken on and the Red Raiders match that profile in scoring 38.2 PPG. It has also been a bad week on the injury front for TCU, first losing leading rusher Darius Anderson (season), then QB Kenny Hill not even travel with team and two other defensive starters are not expected to play. The Frogs are 1-4 and 0-5 ATS in Lubbock since 1993. With detractors calling for a new head coach at Texas Tech, Kliff Kingsbury needs to beat TCU and Texas next week to save his job. The line will be coming down so grab the Red Raiders as early as possible. 

In the history of betting terms, Auburn is in absolutely the classic situation. Last week the Tigers laid waste of No.1 Georgia 40-17. This opened up all sorts of possibilities for Auburn playing undefeated Alabama at home next Saturday, having a chance to win the SEC West and SEC championship a week later in rematch with Georgia. Playing UL- Monroe at home as a 37-point chalk-laden favorite is the very definition of a - sandwich game. The Auburn players know that beating the Warhawks by 30 or 50 means nothing and though Monroe has not faced a defense close to this, they are still averaging 37 PPG. This sure looks like a 45-17 Auburn victory and non-cover. 

The Sharks have won seven of eight and are one of the top defensive teams in the NHL. Florida has won a couple times recently but is 2-10 off a home win scoring four or more goals. Also, favorites off a road win by one goal, winning 60% to 70% of games, playing a team with a losing record in the first half of the season are 43-8, 84.3%, the last five seasons.

Red Storm have an abundance of talent that needs the right coaching to win more games. While I am not sure Chris Mullen is the right coach, this is a team with a lot of weapons. Nebraska is picked 13th in the Big Ten and while they might finish a slot or two higher, the Cornhuskers still have to work out the kinks and are 13-29 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more.

Pelicans have shot over 50% four straight games, that cannot continue. New Orleans is also just .500 at home, while Toronto is outscoring home teams by 2.5 PPG and is 15-3 ATS after failing to cover four of their last five.

Utah on 1-5 SU and ATS downer, 0-4 SU on the road while Knicks are 6-3 and 7-2 ATS at home.