San Antonio has been the better team in this series except for about 18 minutes at the end of Game 2. It not unreal to surmise the Spurs could be up 3-0 over the No. 2 seed. Here are two aspects I cannot overlook for Game 4; Denver is 0-7 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss and San Antonio is 14-4 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less this season. Both angles have a team like the Spurs winning by around 10 points and I concur.

Going with the better team and better pitcher in this one. Jameson Taillon might be 0-2, but he has a solid 3.43 ERA. He certainly a more reliable pitcher than the Giants Derek Holland (1-2, 5.00 ERA), who walk a batter every other inning. San Francisco is 5-17  revenging a loss as a road favorite, while Pittsburgh is s 7-0 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game and 17-1 against teams whose hitters draw three walks or less a game.

Even with all the injuries, the Pinstripes have more than enough offense to batter the Royals Heath Fillmyer and relievers that follow him. Look for Masahiro Tanaka to rebound from a poor outing. Next, let's consider that the Yankees are 19-8 against the run line after batting .200 or worse over a 3-game span, while K.C. is 11-23 against the run line in April road games the last three seasons. The Finisher - AL home teams against the run line with a slugging percentage of .440 or higher, against a team with a bad bullpen (WHIP of 1.55 or higher), batting .225 or worse over their last five games, are 36-15.

Toronto's Marcus Stroman has a super 1.99 ERA, but the Blue Jays are 0-4 in his starts. Oakland has one the best home field advantages in baseball and is 41-14 as a home favorite of -110 or higher. With the Jays averaging just 3.7 RPG, Stroman having a 6.75 ERA against the A's and a 1-12 record in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs a game for his career (Jays Record), it's Oakland.

Two veteran pitchers collide near The Arch in St. Louis and only one still has something left in the tank. Adam Wainwright is no longer dominant, but he's still can mow down opposing batters and in his three starts this season, just one would be deemed below average. Jason Vargas is only an innings-eater at this point of his career and he's had a hard time with that with an ERA over 10. New York has lost four of five as the offense is starting to cool and the Cardinals are 6-0 vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage of .340 or better this season. Make it 7-0. 

Taking my cue from the oddsmakers, who have Houston at -225 on the ML, which means the run line should be -110 to -115. Also, Play On favorites with a money line of -200 or more, an excellent fielding team, averaging 0.5 or fewer errors a game on the season, after scoring one run or less.  Teams like Houston in this spot are an amazing 42-1, and mostly importantly here, they win by 3.6 RPG.

Last week I had a winner for you going against Detroit's Jordan Zimmermann and look for that to happen again tonight. Zimmermann makes too much money to be released or traded (think Matt Cain of the Giants) and except for series of good starts here and there when he commands his sinker, he has better than a 60 percent chance to lose any start. The Tigers beat the White Sox 9-7 yesterday and that outcome usually means bad news for Detroit. Here is the deal, the Tigers are 10-24 after scoring nine runs or more and 3-15 after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more. With the White Sox and their starter, Carlos Rodon, 7-1 vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs a game, take the Pale Hose.

Basketball bettors will be interested to watch some or all of this his contest after Golden State's historic collapse. Nonetheless, it is the total where the action is, down three points to 234. It would seem it's a given the Warriors defense will be ready to play and they are 10-2 UNDER after a loss by six points or less and 12-3 UNDER in road games revenging a home loss, with the overall average total score about 217.

Colorado's Kyle Freeland (1-3, 5.40) has gotten off to stumbling start and his WHIP of 1.41 explains why he's permitting too many hits and free passes. But that has not been the norm for Freeland, as the Rockies are 25-13 in his last 38 starts. Freeland has also shown a proclivity for building on victories as he and his teammates are 17-5 when he pitches if they are off a win. With the Phillies 13-25 in road games vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs a game and 1-6 of late at Coors Field, for MLB picks we will rock the Rockies.

In a series that is this close statistically, it might be a cliche, but the players and coaches realize it's the attention to detail that can be the difference. For NHL picks, we are seeing a very slight edge where Winnipeg's skaters are making a difference. Their overall speed and playmaking are placing more pressure on the St. Louis defense. Goalie Jordan Binnington has played well in three of the games, but after his team took a 7-0 advantage in shots on goal to start the last battle, he faced 39 shots in the final 56 minutes, compared to his teammates having 24. The visiting team might have won six straight between these two, but that ends with the Jets winning by a single goal. 

Milwaukee players still have a bitter taste in their collective mouths since falling in Game 7 at home of the NLCS. Winning the season series against L.A. is not going to replace that anguish, but it becomes a building block if they meet again. 

After a good first start, Julio Urias has been batted around for nine runs (8 earned) in only 8 2/3 innings. His lone loss came to Milwaukee who scored six runs off the lefty and took him deep twice. Zach Davies has allowed one run in his last three starts against Los Angeles, covering 20 innings, all wins for him and his team. The MLB odds have Milwaukee at +104 on the money line and they are superb 20-7 off a loss and 37-14 in Game 1's of series.  

Every team in the NHL handles blowouts differently, some bounce right back and play with gumption and others let them linger (see Tampa Bay this last week). While it seems all the momentum is now with Carolina, they are just 9-19 after a blowout win by five or more goals. Conversely, Washington is 7-1 away from home after a road blowout by three or more scores. The Capitals know how to beat the Hurricanes, having done so a half dozen times this year and if they apply themselves, they will be headed back home to win the series.  

In Houston's last 11 games, their defense has only allowed an average of 101.3 PPG. In Utah's last three games versus the Rockets that have only averaged 95 PPG. Thus, we can figure the Jazz will right around 100 points unless something unusual happens. Since losing to Milwaukee, the Rockets are averaging 121.1 PPG (we tossed out the 149 points against the Suns who did not care) in their last seven outings. When Houston scores 112 or more PPG this season, they are 32-15 ATS and even more importantly they have won by 10.9 PPG. Back Houston. 

Because of how suffocating the defenses can be, each coach has focused on creating more pressure in the offensive and shot attempts have gone up in every game. (61-65-70) The thinking is this could lead a few defensive breakdowns and the last three goals Monday were in direct correlation to that occurring. With Dallas now trailing in the series and playing at home, not sure they want to play as fast with the worst offensive group in the postseason and they could well play it closer to the vest Wednesday. With the Stars 13-4 Under after consecutive setbacks and 35-15 Under against teams scoring 2.85+ goals per game, somebody wins Game Four 2-1 and this confrontation goes Under 5. 

Texas is averaging 6.5 RPG at home and 7.2 RPG in their last five contests playing anywhere. The Angels are at 2.7 RPG on the road and they are starting Matt Harvey who has an ERA over 10. The Rangers Lance Lynn had a poor debut with his new team but has allowed three runs in 13 innings in his last two starts. With the Halos 11-33 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.20 or better, Texas sweeps the series. 

I have a nice situational play for you with Pittsburgh at Detroit. The Pirates have won 16 of 21 games against the AL and in the mix has come nine victories and only two losses versus the Tigers. The Bucs Trevor Williams (1-0, 2.45 ERA) gives his team a solid six innings almost every time out and against Detroit, he on a string of 13 scoreless innings and will face a lineup averaging 2.7 RPG. With Pittsburgh 20-4 vs. AL teams scoring 3.9 or less RPG, you can figure what side I'll be on. 

Milwaukee's offense at home continues to be sensational, averaging 6.9 RPG, after batters St. Louis pitching for 10 and 8 runs so far in this series. They probably will not have as much success against the Redbirds Michael Wacha, whose 5.28 is attributed to one bad outing. However, the ways Brewers are swinging the lumber, if Wacha continues to give up four walks a start, they will take advantage of the situation. Brew Crew starter Corbin Burnes (10.05) has given up nine HR's in just over 14 innings, with eight coming on fastballs. The Cards are 23-9 OVER when having lost three of four and 32-13 OVER as a road underdog of +100 to +150.

The Sharks defense has not had any teeth (pun intended), which is why they finished 21st in goals allowed this season. The conundrum for the Sharks it appears is a lack of trust on the back end from both parties. Netminders Martin Jones and Aaron Dell are playing like they have to cover the entire cage because of defensive miscues, which makes their job even harder. And the defenders are playing as they cannot afford to make one mistake for fear their goalie will be beaten at the uncovered 5-hole or to the glove side even if they have vision. Vegas has taken the last two tilts decidedly by scores of 5-3 and 6-3. The Golden Knights defeated San Jose in last year's playoffs and are 6-2 in their building versus the Sharks. With the visitors to 8-18 on the road after two setbacks, San Jose is a bad bet. 

Doing a little old school handicapping here. San Diego starter rookie left-hander Nick Margevicius (1-1, 1.69 ERA) has never pitched above Class A ball until this season. In his first three starts for the Padres he's has allowed three runs on nine hits with 12 K's in 16 innings. He has surrendered one run in each of his first three starts, becoming only the fourth Padre to accomplish the feat. For years there was a winning capping method to play against an unknown pitcher or one from the back of the rotation after a trio of excellent starts, as he would struggle in the next one. Starters don't go any many innings these days, but this would seem to still offer value. Colorado has ended their slump with back to back victories and sends Jon Gray (0-3, 4.19) to toe the slab. Gray enjoys pitching against the Friars and is 7-1 against the Padres since Sept. 17, 2016, with a 2.56 ERA in nine starts. Gray owns a 4-2 mark at Petco Park with a 2.63 ERA, and a .229 batting average allowed in seven starts. He has won each of his past three starts in San Diego while compiling a 1.42 ERA. With the Pads 14-32 at home vs teams who strand 6.9 or fewer runners on base per game and Gray sharp at Petco, the Rockies rock and sweep the two-game series. 

The difference in playoff experience showed in Game 1 between the Spurs and Nuggets. Look for Denver to be much calmer in this contest, shoot the ball with greater efficiency and make the right defensive adjustments. The Nuggets are 12-3 ATS at home revenging a straight up loss as a favorite, winning by 16.1 PPG. Denver by 10 or more. 

Tampa Bay is the best team in baseball and has Massive edges in starting pitching and the bullpen on Tuesday night. They are also 12-2 against the run line when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season, winning by 3.1 RPG, while Orioles starter Bundy is 3-19 vs. the RL at night, with the O's losing by 3.9 RPG. 

Clutch win by New York on Monday over Philadelphia. Look for the Mets to take Game 2 as well and it begins with the starting pitching. Steven Matz has a 1.65 ERA, with a 19/5 K/W ratio and has only allowed 12 hits in 16 1/3 innings. The Phils Nick Pivetta might throw harder, but his ERA is 9.45 and catches way too much of the dish with 24 hits given up in just 13 1/3 innings. The New York pen is a concern, yet they are 11-5 in road games vs. teams averaging 1.25 or more HR's a game and Matz and his teammates are 15-7 vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse.

This Western Conference series was supposed to be low scoring and this will be the third straight total of 5, and thus far we are 1-0-1 in terms of predictive accuracy. With the teams struggling mightily to even find scoring chances, let alone goals, we'll side with the UNDER, with Dallas 9-1 UNDER after allowing two goals or less in three straight games this season. 

If there is a play against pitcher in baseball right now, Texas' Shelby Miller is the guy. His 9.52 ERA fits his skill and he's 17-34 vs. teams averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game. (team's record) Trevor Cahill is not a great starter, but he's way better than Miller. The Angels are 15-1 as a road favorite of -125 to -175, while the Rangers are 5-16 in Monday home games since 2017.

St. Louis makes a second trip into Milwaukee already this season starting tonight. After being swept in Anaheim, the Brew Crew took the series in Los Angeles. St. Louis arrives in Brew Town after playing they Reds twice in Mexico and they have won six of seven. The Brewers Freddy Peralta (1-0, 6.91) has one outstanding start sandwiched between two poor outings this season but has avoided defeat thus far. St. Louis right-hander Dakota Hudson (0-1, 2.79) will make his third major league start after coming out of the bullpen in all 26 appearances during his rookie year last season. He has not allowed a run in his past two outings and this season and over the last five years in April, pitchers that throw that well have allowed 4.2 runs a start in next outing. Toss in Milwaukee is 17-5 after a game where they had four or less hits and 10-1 home after a loss by six runs or more and they are our pick. 

I'm possibly being stubborn, but how could one the best teams in NHL history during the regular season be down 0-3 to start the playoffs? Of course, I never thought they would have lost two home games and now without their leading point-producer! I might be wrong again but Tampa Bay is 9-0 having lost two of their last three and 11-0 after scoring one goal or less in their previous game this season. 

Any time you win three straight road games against one team, there is a certain level of luck involved, which is exactly what San Diego has done against Arizona. Today, Zack Greinke pitches for the Snakes and he's 12-2 with 2.39 ERA against the Padres and the teams he's played for are 17-6 all told. Plus, home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher, who score 5.0 or more RPG, against an average NL starter (ERA range of 4.20 to 5.20), after a loss by two runs or less, are 117-40. 

I have to back the numbers here. OKC was 4-0 SU and ATS against Portland this season, which tells me there is a matchup issue. The Blazers have lost 10 straight playoff games and are recently 0-7 ATS in them. Getting +3.5 on the hook seems like a bargain.

Jordan Zimmermann started the season with two excellent outings, then reality placed a collect call. The 32-year old was tagged for five runs and taken yard three times by Cleveland in 4.1 innings in his last start, which begins to balance the books on a pitcher who has an ERA over 5.00 in his three previous years in a Tigers uniform. With the Twins 4th in the AL in OPS, they should score runs against him liberally. Know this, Zimmermann and Detroit are 6-20 against foes with a winning record. With Berrios a stud and the Twinkies 24-15 against the run line in home games vs. division opponents, we like Minny by at least two runs.

The Padres are 4th in ERA in the NL and have gotten excellent work from starters and relievers alike. Part of their success is limiting balls put into play, ranked in the Top 3 in strikeouts in the senior circuit. Left-hander Matt Strahm is the probable starter and he's been the weak link at 0-2, with a 7.04 ERA and a WHIP of 2.20. That is contrary to his career ERA of 3.15, however, only 10 of 88 big league appearances have been starts.

If you have never heard of Arizona starter Merrill Kelly (1-1, 2.57), you are not alone. An 8th round draft pick of Tampa Bay in 2010, he never made it above Triple-A with the Rays and had spent the last three years in Korea honing his craft and pitched very effectively there. The Scottsdale native is back home and is pitching well and keeping hitters off balance.

With no Paul Goldschmidt, there were questions about where the offense would come from. However, to this point, the Diamondbacks are averaging over 5 runs per game with David Peralta, Adam Jones, Nick Ahmed, and Ketel Marte all making major contributions. The Snakes are hitting and have averaged 5.7 RPG against lefties, leading to a 4-2 record this season. Expect that to continue and a confident Kelly limits the Padres. Look for the D-Backs to climb to 24-12 in April the last couple of years.

Missed on Atlanta last night but right back with them on Saturday. The Mets are hitting, but Sean Newcomb has a 1.64 ERA to start the season and has a 1.82 ERA in six career starts against New York after permitting three runs in three starts (18 innings) last season. Jason Vargas for the Mets is essentially a washed-up lefty. With Newcomb and the Braves 7-2 after scoring two runs or less and the Bravos 11-4 at home, back Hotlanta. 

Miami is in desperate need of offense. The Marlins are hitting a grotesque .215 collectively and the team's on-base percentage of .271 is lower than what 31 National League hitters have for a batting average. To have any shot at Philadelphia, starting pitcher Caleb Smith (0-0, 4.09 ERA) needs a dialed in performance since he cannot expect much from a bullpen that has an ERA hovering around 5.5.

With Philadelphia averaging over six runs a game on the season, they should tag Smith for at least three runs over five innings. That is when they can go to work on the Marlins relievers and pile up more. Dating back to last year, Zack Eflin and the Phils are 9-3 in the first half of the season in his starts, while Miami has lost 10 of 12 middle games of a series. For MLB picks, make it Phiily.

#64 Predators -155 ML

 The latest NHL odds have the Predators as -1 home favorites and even with the loss Thursday, they have won 10 of 13 first round playoff encounters and they bring the intensity and knot this series at 1-1.

The total in the second game on Saturday has dipped three points to 213. This season the teams were 3-1 Under, with totals ranging from 207 to 218.5. Though the defense is expected to pick up come playoff time, Orlando has played seven OVER's in a row and Toronto has no problem playing faster. Given the spread of around 8, let's go OVER with the Raptors a 113-105 winner.

This becomes a must win for Winnipeg, knowing they would have to win at least twice in St. Louis with a setback. The way the Blues are playing, they definitely have a shot. Yet, this is still a very capable Jets crew and they are 14-2 at home after a loss by a goal in their previous game. Look for another tense one-goal outcome, with Winnipeg emerging as the winner. 

The Islanders were all fired up for their first game at home and they still needed OT to beat Pittsburgh. The Penguins are too veteran a club and New York will not be at the same fever pitch. With Pitt 14-3 revenging a one-goal loss and 24-9 after allowing four goals or more in two straight games, the Pens even the series. 

Atlanta lost the series opener 6-3 last night but look for them to bounce back against the Mets. Zack Wheeler (0-1, 10.24 ERA) is not mowing down many bats for New York and even with that win on Thursday, the Metropolitans are 21-44 against NL teams averaging 5 or more runs a game. Also, teams with an on-base percentage of .375 or better over their last five games, with a bullpen whose WHIP is over 2.00 the last five games, are 4-21 since 2017. 

Tampa coach John Cooper will talk about staying on task, as his team lost their edge. The Lightning is 22-3 after allowing four or more goals and 25-11 when trailing in a series. Cannot see Tampa Bay losing at home again will suggest considering both the puck line (+115) and money line, with the chance for picking up two winners.

Tampa Bay has picked up right where they left off last year with an 11-3 start to the season, including 5-1 on the road. The Rays are doing the committee bullpen again with Ryan Stanek going an inning or two and right now the Tampa Bay bullpen is 3rd in baseball in ERA. The Rays offense has been outstanding away from home at 6.0 RPG and that not just going deep, as they are hitting .302 with an OPB of .379. Toronto has started about as expected at 4-9 and made trades this month already signaling they are looking ahead. With the Rays  26-10 after a win by four runs or more, they take the series lid-lifter. 

Colorado is 3-9 while San Francisco is 4-9. That's bad baseball. There is the potential for this contest to feature scoring because starting pitchers Jon Gray (0-2, 5.68) and Jeff Samardzija (0-0. 2.79) almost never have the word - stingy - used when discussing the pitching prowess. Cases in point, Gray is 10-26 when the total is 7 to 8.5 and Smards is 16-34 at home when the money line is +125 to -125. (There team's record) However, cannot help but notice that oddsmakers have made a line of -120 on Colorado based on overall talent, not current form. The Rockies have the better overall squad and Gray is the better starter if his head is into the game. (Always a debatable situation) Here is something we cannot ignore; Thursday NL road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher, with a team batting average of .245 or worse on the season, are 36-6 since 2015.  

The NHL odds have Washington as -140 ML favorites and this season they swept Carolina 4-0 SU, including winning twice in late March in a home and home series. A lot of higher seeds have not always come to play to open the playoffs, but the thought here is Game 2 might be the trickier contest for Washington, not this one, which makes the Caps our choice.

Kansas City has closed the gap in every game this series against Seattle, yet the fact remains they still have yet to win after dropping three straight. The Mariners are far and away the best team in baseball at the moment at 12-2 and they are crushing the ball even on the road at an amazing 8.5 RPG. With starter Mike Leake and the M's 22-11 when he pitches since last year and his teammates 40-15 vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or fewer runs a game in the same time span, the Mariners toss the Royals overboard yet again. 

St. Louis turned their season around with a coaching change and interim coach Craig Berube and assistant Steve Ott have gotten rave review from the players and those watching the Blues around hockey. They added the necessary structure this team needed and were not afraid to change things up and throwing rookie Jordan Binnington (24-5-1 with five shutouts in 32 games) into the fire was both brilliant and lucky, with him a league-leading 1.89 goals-against average and .927 save percentage. The Blues finished tied for 5th in goals allowed and where Top 10 material for both special teams.

The NHL odds opened with Winnipeg as a favorite. The Jets have lost five of seven while the Blues have won eight of 10. Winnipeg did take the season series 3-1 and has more forward depth, but if St. Louis can slow the Jets down and limit their puck possession, no doubt the visitor can steal the season opener on the road. 

Not going to make this a big deal, Tampa Bay is the best team in the NHL and they beat Columbus all three times this season by a combined 17-3. Take the Lightning. 

Tampa Bay has whipped the White Sox twice and expect more of the same today. The Rays have Sox pitching figured out and Pale Hose pitcher Reynaldo Lopez in two starts has pitched nine innings, allowing 10 runs, 12 hits and walked eight. That sure sounds like more Rays runs. Let's also understand what the oddsmakers are thinking. The Rays are around a -165 ML favorite and normally on the run, they would be +120 to +130, instead they are -105, which means they are trying to discourage you from betting the RL. Know this, AL Road teams against a run line of +1.5, -110 to -1.5, -155 (TAMPA BAY)  allowing 3.9 or fewer runs/game on the season, after scoring 10 runs or more are 20-4 the last five years. Pound Tampa Bay on the RL. 

San Diego continues to play well at 7-4 and their offense continues to show well scoring four to six runs in five of previous half dozen starts. I'm betting that continues against the laboring Giants (3-8) and Derek Holland who has an ERA of 5.00 this season and over 6.00 against the Padres. Joey Lucchesi has pitched well for the Friars (no runs, two starts) and he faces a San Fran team that is 20-42 having lost two of their last three games.

Coach Quin Snyder is still angry at his Utah club for losing to the Lakers on Sunday. The setback ended a seven-game winning streak and was just the club's second loss in 14 games. "Regardless of where you're seeded, you have to play well and play a certain way to win," Snyder told reporters. "We've won some games, so sometimes that masks some things we weren't doing well. Everyone has been talking about the winning streak, but that doesn't mean anything." Since the Jazz has beaten Denver eight straight at home, grab the short number as they win by 6 or more. 

After 11 games, Tampa Bay has surrendered 1.8 runs a game. Talk about shutting down opposing offenses! This afternoon, they will send Charlie Morton to toe the slab against Chicago and he's gotten off to a great start with a 1.64 ERA over 11 innings with 14 K's. Morton has won both career starts against Chicago.  Plus, check out this Rays numbers, 12-2 vs. a team with a winning ptc. below .400, 12-4 in their last 16 road games and 12-3 in Game 2 of a series.

I would parlay this with the Mets and deGrom who is sensational and New York's offense is much better. This reduces risk on separate wagers. 

Expect Corey Kluber to bounce back and Detroit's Jordan Zimmermann is not this good, but he's in one of his early season zones. Both offenses are under 3.5 RPG and both bullpens have been very sharp with ERA's under 2.90. With the Tribe 17-6 UNDER in road games vs. AL teams scoring 3.9 or less runs a game, backing the UNDER. 

Seattle is averaging 7.7 RPG and been even better on the road at 8.6 RPG. That is reason enough to take them against Kansas City and Homer Bailey. The Royals have lost six straight and Bailey is on a string of 20 losses in 21 starts (team's record), including 1-19 as an underdog. Backed with the Royals having a bullpen with an 8.10 ERA, Seattle continues its winning ways. 

Both Oakland and Baltimore were swept over the weekend, but the A's are better equipped to bounce back. Orioles pitchers gave up 14 home runs to the Yankees, while the Athletics suffered two hard one-run losses at Houston. The A's will use change of speed artist Marco Estrada who keeps hitters off balance and he has a 2.76 ERA this season and is 9-3 lifetime against the Birds. The O's counter with Andrew Cashner and he's as inconsistent as ever already, allowing six runs in four innings of first start, followed by six shutout innings. Even if Cashner pitches a little better than expected, Baltimore's bullpen ERA is 7.97, this A's 3.68. Expect Oakland to move to 23-4 playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) on Monday night.

Bonus Play - #811 Texas Tech +1.5

Maybe fate steps in and Virginia goes from the colossal No.1 seed failure ever to national champs in 55 weeks. Maybe the Cavaliers are Cinderella this time, as they squeaked by Oregon, needed OT to beat Purdue and we saw what happened against Auburn. Texas Tech has been dominant, winning by an average of 14 PPG in the tournament and beat the spread by an average 12.4 PPG, the last three as underdogs. I have never seen a team play defense as they do. They give dribbler's no space and they generate turnovers and taps without excessive fouling. Though Virginia seldom turns the ball over, the Red Raiders are +22 for the tournament and have been plus in this category in every game and they cut down the nets tonight.  

It seems crazy that the Angels are -130 ML favorites. However, oddsmakers are thinking like we are that Texas starter Shelby Miller (0-0, 4.91)  could have an outing like his first one with the Rangers. The right-hander went 3 2/3, giving up five hits and walked five, yet, somehow only surrendered two runs. Expect Miller to get in trouble again and the Halos move to 39-16 as a favorite of -125 to -175.

It's Washington and the best rationale we can come up with is Scherzer is too good a hurler to keep suffering losses. Mad Max knows how to close out series with his current teammates and that combination is 28-11 in Game 3 of a series and 11-4 when he takes the ball on a Sunday. Couple that with the Nats blowing a 5-3 lead in the eighth inning to the Mets, falling 6-5 and there is ample reason to suspect the Washington late Sunday afternoon is 7-1 in their last eight series ending contests.

It's not hard to make a case for Texas Tech because of how they play defense and they play the same physical brand of basketball as Michigan State. However, the one aspect that cannot be overlooked is the Red Raiders do have scoring droughts and that will be the difference. The Spartans will protect the ball better in traffic than either Buffalo or Gonzaga did and coach Izzo will find the weakness as to where to attack the Texas Tech defense when they go to double team. The Spartans Cassius Winston will have an all-around superior floor game. Teams like Texas Tech that knocked off a No.1 seed in the Elite 8 and have covered at least three in a row are 1-12 SU and 1-11-1 ATS on Final 4 Saturday. Sparty by 6.

Houston is averaging 2.2 runs a game and headed into Game 2 of their series with Oakland.

The Athletics have done more on offense in averaging 3.9 RPG, but their pitching has been exceptional in permitting only 3.1 RPG.

Houston's Wade Miley gave up three runs in his first start over six innings and since last year, he's saved/revitalized his career as a starting pitcher. His magic formula at 31 years of age a year - The Cutter. If Miley was right-handed, he might have been out of baseball. Instead, he gained trust in the cutter and its created doubts in hitter's mind about his other pitches and he's now more effective.

Oakland's Aaron Brooks was sharp in six shutout innings, giving up only two hits while fanning a half dozen. Brooks might not be that effective, but with the Astros lumber not working and Miley with 1.64 ERA against the Athletics, we'll call for the Houston to move to 32-15 UNDER in April home games since 2015.

Auburn has enjoyed a great run and really been able to impose their will on who they have played since the SEC Tournament started. I'm don't think that continues against Virginia. The Cavaliers play there way and though they can get into some higher scoring games, the majority of the tempo goes their way. Expect Virginia to a better job on boxing out long shots and not letting the Tigers run down rebounds. This will come down to the end against the spread and the Wahoos move to 10-0 ATS when favored by 6 or less. Virginia by 8.

The Cardinals Michael Wacha was 8-2 record with a 3.20 ERA before getting hurt last year. He's picked up right where he left off last season and he's been great against San Diego with a 3-0 record in five starts, 2.32 earned-run average, and a .216 opponents' batting average. And when's he's pitching at Busch Stadium, Wacha is 29-13 for his career.

The Cardinals have not been hitting and that is when they usually break out of it and they are 10-1 after batting .200 or worse over a 5-game span and 13-2 after a game where they stranded three or fewer runners on base.

My apologies to long term members for Friday. After going 82-61 over 36 days, I went sideways and will do my best to get that money back for you. 

Portland has won 11 of 13 SU and is soaring. Denver is 3-4 SU of late and has not looked sharp. With the Blazers 11-3 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more and 10-1 ATS after allowing 90 points or less, an outright upset is possible.

Texas is swinging the bats in averaging 6.4 RPG. There is no reason to believe Felix Pena will cool them off as he's just another pitcher. Lance Lynn was shelled in his first start for Texas, but that's contrary to how he normally pitches in the first two months of the season, having a sharp 31-16 record for April/May, his best two months. With the Angels 6-19 after allowing eight runs or more and 1-12 vs. AL teams with slugging percentage of .440 or better, take Texas.

Boston and Indiana have the same exact record and they are likely to meet in the first round of the playoffs. With just two games left after tonight, the winner probably has home court advantage. The home team is 3-0 SU and the Pacers are 17-5 ATS at home revenging a same season loss. Indiana wins.

With three games to play, San Antonio trails Oklahoma City by one game and would prefer to move up to the No.7 spot out West to avoid Golden State in the first round of the playoffs. Bettors like their chances tonight and moved the Spurs from -5 to -6.5 at Washington. The Wizards have played younger players of late, which is why the spread is so high since San Antonio is 14-25 SU on the road. With the Spurs 1-6-1 ATS of late, I'll take Washington.

Atlanta has gotten very competitive the last few weeks at 5-2 and 6-1 ATS. Orlando has also been playing well, but the Hawks are playing with more confidence than they maybe have all year and are 13-3 ATS on the road off a one or more W's and 8-0 ATS away off an upset win as a home underdog. The Magic win, just by 5 or less. 

The Pirates and Reds open up a four-game series in the Steel City. Both teams are off a frustrating start to the week, failing to win thus far. The starting pitcher matchup of Jordan Lyles for Pittsburgh vs. Taylor Mahle of Cincinnati favors the Pirates, based on results, not ERA. Mahle and the Reds have never beaten the Bucs in four starts and he has a 5.90 ERA against them. Lyles' 5.10 ERA is hardly impressive, but he's 4-1 against Cincy and 5-2 for the different teams he's pitched for. Once again and this will probably be true all year, Cincinnati is 7-23 in April most recently which means an uphill battle. Pittsburgh's stronger offense will pick up the rest of the difference for a winner. 

The CIT championship is on the line, but the real betting action is on the total, lowered three points to 168. Both these teams score a lot of points, as each is over 80 PPG. However, the reason for the total crumbling is the defenses are playing as well as they have all year, which is why they are playing for the title and this will be why this contest will be an UNDER.

Just going with history in the Raptors and Nets. Toronto has won 14 of the last 15, thus, if that continues to play out, the only way the Raptors don't cover if they win the game outright is if the outcome is by one. Toronto by 5. 

Quick turnaround game for the Pistons and Pacers with Indiana having won by 11 on Monday. Besides the motivation factor, Indy is 3-12 ATS after scoring 110 points or more two straight games, while Detroit is  11-3 ATS at home versus teams averaging 23 or more assists a game in the 2nd half of the season. Pistons by 7.

Tampa Bay has completely shut down Colorado and they have scored four runs in losing four in a row. Today that changes and it begins with German Marquez, who is 13-7 in road games playing against a team with a winning record and 10-3 as a road underdog. (Rockies Record) Add in the Rocks are 13-4 after a game where they stranded three or less runners on base and a perfect 10-0 after batting .175 or worse over a 3-game span.                

The Phillies have started hot, Washington, not so much. Philadelphia has a huge pitching edge with Aaron Nola and he and his team are 15-2 vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse the last two seasons. Off last night's win over M. Scherzer, the Phils are 28-12 after scoring eight runs or more. Lastly, the Nats are 3-10 at home playing against a top-level team whose win percentage is 62% or higher. 

Cincinnati has played the Brewers tough but came up one-run short twice. Look for Luis Castillo to come up big today and slow Milwaukee down along with having success against Freddy Peralta. In addition, when I went against the Brew Crew earlier, reliever Josh Hader was not available, just like he will not be tonight. Here is what put me over the edge on the Reds, Play Against division road teams like Milwaukee when the money line is +125 to -125, off two straight wins if the last one was by one run. These teams are 12-40 in the next game.

Golden State's not used to playing meaningful games late in the regular season. They lead Denver by just one game in the West and a win would give them a two-game cushion with five to play. I'm forecasting a complete effort from the Warriors tonight who win by 11 or more. 

Seattle is off to a blazing start at 6-1 and despite moving some players with big names, their offense is in an absolute groove right now scoring better than seven runs a game. At the moment it is difficult to imagine the Halos Trevor Cahill will slow them, as he's nothing more than a journeyman pitcher. The Angels offense is stuck in neutral and they will face Marco Gonzales who is built for this money line with a record of  13-3 mark when the money line is +125 to -125. (Mariners Record)

Always a fan of turnaround games, especially if we catch the loser as a home underdog like the Sacramento. To the Kings' credit, they are not giving up and nearly covered against Houston on Saturday and came back the next night and upset the Spurs on the road. Teams like the Kings are 34-13 ATS revenging a same season loss off an upset win as a road underdog of 10 points or more. The Rockets by just 2. 

Boston pitchers had a tough start to the season in Seattle and now head to Oakland where they have lost five of seven the last couple years. However, that changes tonight as David Price makes his debut and look for him to limit an A's offense that has only averaged 3.8 RPG, while Price has a 3.31 ERA against them. It's not like the Red Sox are not swinging the bats, scoring 6 RPG and they are 13-1 in road games after a combined score of 15 runs or more. 

Coming into tonight, Washington had a three-point lead in the Metropolitan over the New York Islanders. If the Capitals win and the Islanders lose in regulation at home against Toronto, the Caps would be divisions champions for a fourth consecutive year. Washington will have a real chance to at least hold up their part of the bargain, as they have won four in a row, including a much-needed confidence-booster at Tampa Bay Saturday night by a score of 6-3. Everything is clicking for the defending Stanley Cup champs as they have outscored the opposition by a score of 16-7, doing excellent work on both sides the ice. The Capitals come into this game 10-2 in the road games after two wins and take win streak to five.

Break up the Orioles! That's right, Baltimore won the series at Yankee Stadium to start the season and next travel north to Canada. I think the Birds good luck could continue, at least for one more game from that feel good series. David Hess takes the ball for the O's and he's started three times against the Blue Jays and permitted two runs over 19 innings (0.95 ERA). Toronto split four games with Detroit at home but only scored 12 runs. The Jays will counter with Sean Reid-Foley who has undeniable talent but struggles to throw strikes, even in Triple-A and could get himself in trouble versus a Baltimore offense that just scored 14 times against the Pinstripes. This early in the season, anything is possible, why can't the Birds start 3-1?

San Antonio is playing with two days rest at home where they are 7-0 ATS and winning by more than 13 PPG. They face Sacramento who is 3-9 SU and ATS with no rest and when it is away/away in a back to back situation, they have lost by 12.2 PPG. Add in the Spurs are playing with revenge and are 19-1 ATS revenging a loss where the opponent scored 110 or more points, it's the Spurs by at least 13. 

The total for this highly anticipated affair is up to 151. Given that each squad has played the vast majority of their game going Under the number, when one learns these clubs are on a 4-0 Over move against each other, any sports bettor wants to hit the pause button and do more research. Though the series matchup suggests a higher scoring affair, with Duke living on the edge (of the rim) and possibly not at full strength again, that is cause for concern. Plus, when these two are off SU triumph's, the Blue Devils are 21-8-2 Under and Sparty is 27-10-1 Under.

Kentucky has already won and covered against Auburn twice and with the Tigers without their top big man, this becomes a tall order (no pun intended). There is no way Auburn makes 17 3's again and there is a good chance they fall below their average of 11 facing a familiar opponent and facing the law of averages. The Wildcats by 7. 

On Saturday, this was my second choice for baseball picks and this gets moved to the front of the line on Sunday because of the rainout. Sonny Gray is a shell of his former and has ended up in Cincinnati, a team going nowhere. Pittsburgh's Trevor Williams came into his own last year and was 14-10 with a fine 3.11 ERA and he was the only starter in baseball that had 10 scoreless starts going at least six innings. In three career starts against the Reds, he is 3-0 (4-1 all starts) with a sharp 2.22 ERA. Look for the Pirates to knock around Gray and split the series with their division rivals. 

For college basketball picks I'll take Gonzaga. While I love the Texas Tech defense and toughness and Jarrett Culver, Davide Moretti and Matt Mooney, we still have doubts about consistent offense from this team. Conversely, we have no such worries from Gonzaga, who can turn to Rui Hachimura, Brandon Clarke and Killian Tillie (inside or outside) and backcourt studs Zach Norvell and Josh Perkins.  The real deciding factor and it manifested itself when Florida State go within four points Thursday night. Gonzaga is a +7 on the season in rebounding and were +9 versus the Noles. So far in the tournament, they are +38 and they will be why the Zags win and cover and are off to the Final Four. 

This is strictly a matter of matchups and Houston has a decisive edge. This is proven by them winning last two games by 20 and 27 points and when the Rockets are home, they are 11-1 ATS after playing one or more consecutive Under's. Houston by 14. 

Don't look now, but here come the Charlotte Hornets. The Hornets have won a season-high four straight games (4-0 ATS) and they are tied with Orlando in the loss column at 39, which is one behind Brooklyn and Miami who are 38 and they currently hold down the last two spots in the East playoff chase. NBA bettors have noticed and lifted the Hornets from a Pick to -2.5 against LeBron and the Lakers. No doubt it is bit scary backing Charlotte on the road as a favorite with their 11-24 SU record, yet, the way Kemba Walker is playing, not sure on L.A. who can guard him. A nod to the Hornets with the Lakers 8-21 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in five straight games this season. The former Bobcats by 6. 

Hats off to Virginia Tech, but Duke knows it was lucky to beat UCF and is playing with in this case revenge when Zion Williamson did not play in last game. I look for resolve from the Blue Devils to be strong and they will matchup much better this time around at a neutral site. With the Hokies just an average offensive club, it's the Dukies by 10. 

Milwaukee beat St. Louis yesterday thanks to four home runs and Lorenzo Cain bringing a game-tying home run back with two outs in the 9th. The Brewers opened as a -125 favorite but have been bet down to a Pick (-105). The starting pitching matchup is close to even with Jack Flaherty vs. Freddy Peralta. One edge Milwaukee had yesterday that is gone is Josh Hader went two innings in relief and at best would pitch to one batter tonight. Look for the Redbirds to rebound and improve to 18-5 off a one-run loss.

Auburn can run and gun with North Carolina. But can the Tigers combat the Tar Heels size and superior defense? That is where the game changes. The Tar Heels are veterans who know what it takes to win and advance and they will generate 10-15 points just on put-backs and fouls committed by Auburn. With UNC 7-1 ATS versus teams scoring 77+ points a contest after 15+ games and 7-1 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more, it's the Heels by 12.

The latest Blues resurgence has come about by the offense picking up the pace, lighting the red lamp 19 times in only 12 periods. The Blues suddenly high-powered offense has caught the attention of oddsmakers, making St. Louis a -210 road favorite, which is only the second time this season away from The Arch they are listed as a -200 or large fave.  The Rangers have been waving the surrender flag for some time in losing 13 of 15. The level of disinterest could not be any more obvious, just visibly going through the motions. This is pretty easy, St. Louis is 10-3 of late versus losing clubs and the Blueshirts have lost 11 of 12 against those from the West Conference.

The college basketball odds have Michigan as a two-point favorite. There is hardly a weakness to find about either squad. Take away the Wolverines kryptonite, Michigan State, since Jan. 22 they are 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS. Texas Tech lost four of six and only covered one game from Jan.16 to Feb.2. But since losing at Kansas by 16, the Red Raiders are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS.

Coach Chris Beard's team from Lubbock scores a rather pedestrian 73.2 points a game, however, they do find good shots by working the ball and avoiding excessive dribbling. That is why they connect on 47.3 percent from the field. The naysayers will scream, but that's mostly at home, as they are only at 44.7 percent in road/away contests. That is true, yet in T-squared's last five non-home games, they are at 49.3 percent. This could very well be like an NBA game, coming down to the last possession or two against the spread, but in the end, the Red Raiders win the game and cover the spread. 

When I first thought about this matchup, I considered Purdue. Over the last couple of day,s I changed my mind. For starters, Tennessee has more scoring options then the Boilermakers. Purdue needs Carsen Edwards to score when facing better competition and what are the chances he will come close to the game he did against Villanova? While not a fan Rick Barnes, talent matters at this stage and the Vols are the more talented team, plain and simple. Plus, Sweet 16 returnees facing an opponent winning 84 or more percent of their games, are just 4-18 SU and a miserable 6-15-1 ATS. Tennessee by 5.

Florida State mauled Murray State, but here is the thing. The Seminoles shot over 50%  and made 11 three's, four above their average. In four of Florida State's last seven games, they have shot under 40% and Gonzaga holds teams to 38.7%. Though the Noles are long and athletic, the Zags are the most efficient offensive team in the country. Also, it was a year ago in this very same matchup, Gonzaga was upset 75-60. Add defense, great shooting and revenge into a nice a package and the Bulldogs are the choices. For good measure, Sweet 16 returnees facing an opponent winning 84 or more percent of their games, are just 4-18 SU and 6-15-1 ATS.

Cleveland will not be as good a team as last year and start the season without Francisco Lindor or Jason Kipnes in the lineup. I know Corey Kluber is a great pitcher, but his team is 11-11 in 22 starts against the Twins and while it was last year, the Tribe was 16-25 when the money line was -100 to -150. The Twinkies in the home opener. 

Early in the season, I play underdogs nearly exclusively. Though it's early, a divisional game that will matter. The Cardinals roster moves have made them a better team. Miles Mikolas and the Redbirds were 13-3 on the road last year and 12-1 in day games. Milwaukee starter Jhoulys Chacin is 2-7 lifetime against the Cards with an ERA of almost 5.5. St. Louis wins. 

This winner of these former Big 8 conference pals heads to the Big Apple for the NIT semi-finals. Colorado has been lowered from a touchdown underdog to +5. On the season and since Shaka Smart came to Austin, Texas has been a large disappointment. However, the Horns are heading to the cement jungle, because the Buffs are 4-12 ATS as road dogs and having a 1-8 ATS record in away outings after playing two games at home as a favorite. Texas by 9.

Honestly, I had no idea Lipscomb was this good until they lost to Liberty. They are 8-1 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record and  8-1 ATS away versus teams outscoring their opponents by 4+ points a contest. With several quality wins and covers against good teams and facing an N.C. State team on an 0-3 ATS that playing zero defense, this is a two-point game either way. 

The Clippers have won five in a row and 10 of 11 and are surging towards the postseason. Minnesota beat Memphis their last time out which ended an ugly 0-5 SU and ATS run. Not sure what motivation the T-Wolves have at this time. The Clips come into this one 18-6 ATS as road favorite and if we scratch below that surface, they are 14-3 ATS as the sportsbooks choice by six or less. L.A.C. by 5 or more. 

Portland is attracting a lot of action tonight, but I see a Brooklyn team that has covered the last three games of a long road trip and built some momentum. The Nets are also 14-4 ATS in road games off a road win and 15-5 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in three straight contests. Add in this season Brooklyn is 8-2 ATS with two days rest and they end up only losing by a two or three points. 

Brown plays like the color of the uniforms home and away,  completely different. At home, the Bears average 80.9 PPG. On the road, they are nearly the opposite at 66.5 PPG. Defensively, each team does good work in defending well with Brown at 41.4% and LMU at 41.9%. Dress up the Bears as a road underdog and they are 11-1 Under. And if Loyola Marymount is off a contest in which they permitted 55 or fewer points, they are 7-0 Under. 

After playing mostly unfocused hockey on a game by game basis, Winnipeg has turned it up a notch in winning five of six and is the home favorite over the Stars who are fading at 1-4 of late. In making NHL picks, it is impossible to ignore the Stars have lost eight of 10 to opponents with winning records and they have been on the short end of the scoreboard in their last six visits to Winnipeg.

The Blues should be brimming with confidence having beaten Tampa Bay at home 4-3 last Saturday. St. Louis is the favorite and the home team has taken four of five in Vegas' brief existence. In scratching beyond the surface, we find the Knights have lost 11 of 14 as underdogs while tonight's foe is 9-3 against winning teams.

While impressed with UC-Irvine, K-State did not have their best player. Oregon is just playing outstanding basketball and has the size and length to limit the Anteaters. Here is a great 2nd Round nugget; when two double-digit seeds meet, the lower seed, the Ducks in this case, are 10-2 SU and ATS. Oregon by 10.

Houston is a smarter and better defensive team than Iowa State and they are not going to making the same dumb mistakes the Cyclones made against the Buckeyes. Besides, the Cougars are on a mission under K. Sampson are on a mission and beating the Big Ten means something along with advancing. Put a fork in Ohio State who is 3-10 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by 8+ points a game this season. The Cougs by 12.