All Sports Archive |
Date |
Match Up |
Rating |
Score |
Result |
Profit |
Lead Time |
Analysis |
04-12-18 |
Angels -129 v. Royals |
|
7-1 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 35 m |
Show
|
Plain and simple the Halos are mashing, scoring 6.6 RPG. With the Angels 21-6 after three straight wins by four runs or more and 13-3 after sweeping a three-game series on the road against a division rival, the Halos get the call.
|
04-11-18 |
Kings +120 v. Golden Knights |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 12 m |
Show
|
I think L.A. gets a split in Vegas in first two games, going after it from the start.
|
04-11-18 |
Reds v. Phillies -110 |
|
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 50 m |
Show
|
The Reds are averaging 3.1 RPG, the bullpen has an ERA of nearly seven and tonight's starter Luis Castillo is 0-2, with ERA of 9.00. Philly is playing well, starter Nick Pivetta has thrown well and Cincy is 2-13 after batting .200 or worse over a 3-game span the last two seasons.
|
04-11-18 |
Wild v. Jets -170 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 11 m |
Show
|
Winnipeg was the best home team in the NHL and Minnesota has injuries.
|
04-11-18 |
Diamondbacks -113 v. Giants |
|
7-3 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 54 m |
Show
|
The Snakes are playing excellent baseball and NL favorites with a money line of -110 or higher, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP was 1.25 or better last season, with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.00 the last five games are 75-24 the past 20 years!
|
04-10-18 |
A's v. Dodgers -120 |
|
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 51 m |
Show
|
The A's look very much like the team I saw in spring training and are 4-7. The Dodgers at 3-6 are playing like a club that thought they were going to win the World Series last fall. So what do you in this Cali confrontation? Those making large wagers have driven the Dodgers down 35 cents to -120. Why, it's like the Red Lobster combo platter. Oakland's Sean Manaea has pitched well early and Hyun-Jin Ryu has thrown like someone who has spent a lot of time on the DL in recent years. However, the Dodgers at this price at home are too good to pass up
|
04-10-18 |
Astros v. Twins +144 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
144 |
3 h 49 m |
Show
|
World Series champion Houston has risen 20 cents to -155 over Minnesota, which is about as surprising as tonight Yankees/Red Sox game being nationally televised. The Astros have started 9-2 and are thought to have a real chance to repeat as champs. In spite of the 'Stros excellence, my Line Tracker system gives the Twinkies a 60% chance to win and I will side with the underdog.
|
04-10-18 |
Angels -137 v. Rangers |
|
11-1 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 45 m |
Show
|
Good spot for Angels who are better in all facets against Texas.
|
04-10-18 |
Reds v. Phillies OVER 7.5 |
|
1-6 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
Those betting baseball are looking at Aaron Nola pitching for the Phillies tonight against a Cincy lineup that is averaging 3.3 RPG and they adjusted the total downward from 8 to 7.5. However, hittable Homer Bailey is starting for the Reds and the Cincinnati bullpen has an ERA of almost six. With Cincy about a +185 road underdog, let's consider the OVER with the visitor 21-8 OVER as road pooch of +150 or more.
|
04-09-18 |
Diamondbacks -113 v. Giants |
|
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 24 m |
Show
|
Arizona is again starting the season hot at 7-2 and they have a decided starting pitching edge. Also, NL favorites with a money line of -110 or higher like the Snakes are 71-24 with a starting pitcher whose WHIP was 1.25 or better last season, with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.00 the last five games.
|
04-09-18 |
Thunder v. Heat +4.5 |
|
115-93 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 42 m |
Show
|
While the Thunder need a victory, Miami was very upset about how they played in a pathetic 24-point loss to the Knicks. Expect a more inspired effort from the Heat who are 27-12 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite, while OKC is 5-21 ATS having won two of their last three games this season. Expect a two-point game either way.
|
04-09-18 |
Blue Jays v. Orioles -113 |
|
7-1 |
Loss |
-113 |
2 h 13 m |
Show
|
Baltimore took three of four in the Bronx and that momentum continues at home against Toronto. The O's are 24-8 at home vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage .320 or worse.
|
04-08-18 |
Dodgers v. Giants UNDER 8 |
|
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 11 m |
Show
|
Clayton Kershaw has a 1.58 ERA against the Giants in all starts and Ty Blach of San Fran has a 1.51 ERA versus the Dodgers in five starts. Kershaw is 22-9 UNDER if his team is off a loss of late and Blach is 11-2 UNDER against the NL West. Play UNDER.
|
04-07-18 |
Nets v. Bulls +6 |
|
124-96 |
Loss |
-108 |
8 h 17 m |
Show
|
I usually avoid bad NBA games like this. However, in this case, we have the Nets 27-14 ATS in away games, but here is the rub. Brooklyn is -5.0 in points per game. In the role of a road favorite, they are 2-1 SU and ATS but the margin of victory is just +2.7. With the Bulls 3-2 SU and 4-0-1 ATS of late, I say they cover and possibly even win the game outright!
|
04-07-18 |
Padres v. Astros -1.5 |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-130 |
7 h 15 m |
Show
|
Houston has started the season fast and has a huge pitching edge in this Saturday contest. The Astros are 12-2 against the run line vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs game on the season the last two years, winning by 3.9 RPG.
|
04-07-18 |
Diamondbacks -103 v. Cardinals |
|
3-5 |
Loss |
-103 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
|
The Snakes have come out of the gate hot again and their pitching has picked up right where it left off a season ago. Zack Greinke is 13-5 against St. Louis and the D-Backs are 24-10 after allowing one or fewer runs.
|
04-06-18 |
Pelicans -11 v. Suns |
|
122-103 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 1 m |
Show
|
Talked to those in my network and all are completely convinced New Orleans comes to play still needing wins to secure a playoff spot, while Suns just want the season to end. I will trust their judgment and know the Pelicans are 11-2 ATS as a road favorite this season.
|
04-06-18 |
Stars v. Ducks -162 |
|
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 49 m |
Show
|
Anaheim is fighting for playoff positioning and is superb 12-2 after playing three consecutive home games this season.
|
04-06-18 |
Cubs -141 v. Brewers |
|
4-5 |
Loss |
-141 |
3 h 54 m |
Show
|
The Cubs offense finally opened up yesterday in whipping Brewers 8-0 and I can see that carrying over again. Hendricks normally pitches well in Milwaukee and the Brew Crew offense is laboring. The Cubs are 72-36 on the road with a money line of -100 to -150.
|
04-06-18 |
Cavs v. 76ers UNDER 224 |
|
130-132 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
|
An extremely important game for seeding purposes for both teams in the East. However, the wagering action is focused on the total where the total is up two points to 224. With and without Joel Embiid, the Philadelphia offense has been on fire during their long winning streak and is averaging over 116 PPG in their past nine battles. For 43 minutes last night, the Cleveland defense was dreadful, but they picked it up when it counted and they had a huge come from behind win against Washington. I suspect we will see a great deal of defensive intensity tonight in Philly and the Cavs are 11-1 UNDER when playing on back-to-back days this season.
|
04-06-18 |
Reds v. Pirates +111 |
|
3-14 |
Win
|
111 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
From a common sense standpoint, Cincinnati being flipped from +120 to -120 over Pittsburgh makes no sense. The Reds are 1-4 while Pittsburgh is a sizzling 5-1. Cincy starter Luis Castillo (0-1, 10.80 ERA) was pounded in his first outing and Pirates hurler Trevor Williams tossed six no-hit innings to begin his season. Castillo has more ability and had a bad outing and has thrown well twice against the Bucs. Nevertheless, I cannot overlook the Reds are 5-18 after batting .225 or worse over a five-game span.
|
04-05-18 |
Wizards v. Cavs -5.5 |
|
115-119 |
Loss |
-108 |
6 h 41 m |
Show
|
Other than one dull showing at Miami, Cleveland is 9-1 and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. Washington is really laboring and is trying to blend John Wall back into the action. Make it the Cavs by 10.
|
04-05-18 |
Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -117 |
|
3-1 |
Loss |
-117 |
5 h 52 m |
Show
|
Had an easy winner with the Cards last night and they will take down a hot Arizona club tonight. Snakes starter Robbie Ray was awful in his first outing of the year and has a 6.52 ERA against the Redbirds in three careers starts, all losses for his team. Adam Wainwright is 8-3 against the D-Backs with a fine 2.56 ERA and he and St. Louis is 18-4 vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs a game on the season.
|
04-04-18 |
Cardinals -112 v. Brewers |
|
6-0 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
|
St. Louis should be up 2-0 over the Brewers but gave up two ninth inning bombs to lose last night. Look for the Redbirds to bounce back with Carlos Martinez on the hill. He will face Jhoulys Chacin who hasn't fared well against St. Louis, going 0-5 with a 6.10 ERA in six career starts. look for the Cards to move to 19-7 18-7 in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw three walks or less a game.
|
04-03-18 |
Orioles v. Astros -1.5 |
|
6-10 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 28 m |
Show
|
Houston is playing like World Series champions and hammers Baltimore yet again for a run line winner. The O's are 1-12 in road games after scoring three runs or less in three straight games, losing by 3.5 RPG.
|
04-03-18 |
Hornets v. Bulls +5 |
|
114-120 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
|
Not that the Bulls are very good, but Charlotte has not been a great deal better in the second half of the season and Chicago is 10-0 ATS after two or wins this season. The Bulls outright!
|
04-03-18 |
Wizards v. Rockets -7.5 |
|
104-120 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
Washington is struggling, while Houston is off their worst shooting game of the season. With the Rockets motivated and road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Wizards 11-33 ATS off a double-digit loss as a favorite of is points or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, it's Houston by 11.
|
04-03-18 |
Nets v. 76ers UNDER 225 |
|
95-121 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 36 m |
Show
|
With no Joel Embiid, will the Philadelphia offense, defense or both be affected? Basketball bettors might not know that answer, but they know this Atlantic Division clash should be much higher scoring than what the oddsmakers sent out and moved the total a whopping four points from 221 to 225. Two of the three matchups have been OVER's this season, but I like how the way 76ers defense has played in allowing about 101 PPG recently and will side with the UNDER.
|
04-02-18 |
Michigan v. Villanova -7 |
|
62-79 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 35 m |
Show
|
I’ve been riding Villanova for most of the tournament and there is no point in stopping now. Quite frankly, these are two different level teams taking the court tonight. Villanova is an elite program & team looking for its second title in three years. The Wildcats’ steady point guard play and unbelievable shooting gives them big edges on Michigan. The Wolverines enjoy the edge inside, but only a minimal one, as whatever ‘Nova lacks in size, it makes up for in athleticism. This Villanova team also appears quite hungry. With Michigan not having beaten a top 4 seeded team en route to the title game, I question the readiness. Truthfully there’s only one game in which I thought Michigan looked really strong, that being against A&M. With Big East schools owning a perfect 5-0 SU & ATS record in championship games since ’01 and Big Ten teams being winless at 0-6 SU & ATS in such contests, it all seems to be pointing to ‘Nova. Despite all of the incredible championship games we’ve recently witnessed in sports, I don’t see another one here. Villanova by double digits.
|
04-02-18 |
Nationals -114 v. Braves |
|
8-1 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 44 m |
Show
|
Washington handled Cincinnati with ease in sweeping the Reds on the road and building on last year's sensational 51-32 away record. I'm looking for that to continue for the Nationals who are 8-0 in road games with a team slugging percentage of .430 or better on the season and are 12-6 at Atlanta the past two years.
|
04-01-18 |
Pacers +3 v. Clippers |
|
111-104 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
|
|
03-31-18 |
Kansas +5 v. Villanova |
|
79-95 |
Loss |
-101 |
9 h 33 m |
Show
|
This should be an epic battle with Nova. The teams have a lot of similarities and I cannot see where Kansas should be this large an underdog. With the Jayhawks rested I see them playing on even terms and will have for either team to win by two or three points.
|
03-31-18 |
Raptors v. Celtics +4.5 |
|
99-110 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 24 m |
Show
|
Toronto probably has the better team at this point but is on a 0-7 ATS bender. Boston has been playing really well and is 7-0 ATS revenging a loss of 10 points or more this season. Celtics Outright!
|
03-30-18 |
Clippers +6.5 v. Blazers |
|
96-105 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 3 m |
Show
|
Though Portland is playing great, they are too overvalued in this spot tonight against a Clippers team that has won three straight and is 24-14 ATS on the road. The Blazers winning might not be a surprise but I see the Clips covering having a 7-0 ATS record in road games after covering three of their last four against the spread.
|
03-29-18 |
Yankees v. Blue Jays +140 |
|
6-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
15 h 57 m |
Show
|
Happ is soft-tosser and is 8-2 SU against the Yankees. New York might too excited, providing Toronto the chance for an early upset.
|
03-28-18 |
Celtics +8.5 v. Jazz |
|
97-94 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 11 m |
Show
|
Despite missing too many players due to injury, Boston has won four in a row and will try and make it a 4-0 road trip. Because of said maladies and Utah playing well also, oddsmakers have inflated line that is four points higher than it normally would be. With this in mind, the Celtics have been road warriors all year and are 27-10 and 26-11 ATS away from Bean Town and keep this one close.
|
03-28-18 |
San Francisco v. North Texas -3 |
|
55-69 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 6 m |
Show
|
The Mean Green have immediate revenge from two nights ago versus San Francisco. After scoring 90 or more points in three straight games, North Texas was cooled off Monday and tallied just 62. I expect them to reach 80 points tonight and send the Dons to 2-10 ATS when the line is +3 to -3, setting up Friday title game. UNT by 6.
|
03-27-18 |
Bucks v. Clippers -3.5 |
|
98-105 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 19 m |
Show
|
Not that I love the Clips, but the Bucks cannot be trusted and are 10-19 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points and are 13-25 ATS after two or more wins. Clippers by 8.
|
03-27-18 |
Mississippi State +2.5 v. Penn State |
|
60-75 |
Loss |
-104 |
5 h 15 m |
Show
|
Though I have liked how Penn State has been playing, they have only shot over 41 percent once in past seven outings and Miss. State has held three of last four foes under 36% accuracy. Bulldogs outright!
|
03-27-18 |
Nuggets +8.5 v. Raptors |
|
110-114 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 19 m |
Show
|
I know Denver stinks on the road but Toronto is laboring at 0-6 ATS. Plus, the Raptors fit a negative system of mine in which home favorites in this price range are 7-27 ATS. Toronto wins by six or less.
|
03-25-18 |
Texas Tech v. Villanova -6.5 |
|
59-71 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 38 m |
Show
|
The Red Raiders have been a solid defensive club all year and it will be imperative they dictate the tempo of the game in order to possibly engineer the upset and or cover the spread. That's where the problem comes in. Teams can hang with the Wildcats and then they go on 10-0 run over 120 seconds. That is when the pressure builds for the trailing team, just ask West Virginia. Nova wins by 11.
|
03-24-18 |
Florida State v. Michigan -4 |
|
54-58 |
Push |
0 |
8 h 59 m |
Show
|
After going 0-7-1 ATS, Florida State has won and covered three straight. However, I had Michigan in the Final 4 and made a small wager on them after they won the Big Ten tourney to be national champs. This team expertly controls tempo and is excellent in converting turnovers into points. The Seminoles might have more size, but the Wolverines have better guards and more ways to score. Michigan by 7.
|
03-24-18 |
Loyola-Chicago +1 v. Kansas State |
|
78-62 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 20 m |
Show
|
In case you were wondering, this is a historic matchup, as a nine-seed has never faced an 11-seed in a regional final. For college basketball picks, it makes more sense to go with the power conference team. But Loyola keeps finding ways to win, is far more consistent and is 7-0 ATS after three straight games where both teams score 70 points or less this season. With a nun sitting courtside and having a healthy respect from them in my youth (my knuckles have arthritis from all the wooden ruler whacks), I'll back the Ramblers and sprinkle a little holy water around just before game time.
|
03-24-18 |
Flames v. Sharks -169 |
|
1-5 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 17 m |
Show
|
Pretty simple, San Jose has won six in a row while Calgary has dropped four straight. Plus, the Flames are 0-6 after allowing four goals or more in a loss to a division rival.
|
03-23-18 |
Jazz v. Spurs OVER 194.5 |
|
120-124 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 60 m |
Show
|
These are two of the hottest teams in the NBA, but the focus for tonight from hoops bettors in on the total, up from 193.5 to 195. This would appear to be an incorrect line move as these are the Top 2 scoring defenses in the Association. However, upon closer inspection, the Jazz and Spurs have played seven straight OVER's. Plus, when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points and road team's like Utah have won eight or more of their last 10 games and are playing on consecutive days, the OVER is 27-6 the last five years.
|
03-23-18 |
West Virginia v. Villanova -5 |
|
78-90 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 50 m |
Show
|
With Jay Wright having these many days to break down West Virginia press, I expect him to use what Kansas does. Villanova has more than enough ball-handlers and finishers to score an ample amount of points against the Mountaineers and they end up winning by 10.
|
03-22-18 |
Texas A&M v. Michigan -2.5 |
|
72-99 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 46 m |
Show
|
In my Final Four bracket, I had Michigan coming out of the West and I'm not changing my mind now. Texas A&M is back to how they were playing early in the season, but the Wolverines have an edge at the guard position and this is an underrated defensive club, who is sneaky good when fast-breaking. Make it Michigan by 6.
|
03-22-18 |
Loyola-Chicago v. Nevada +1.5 |
|
69-68 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 16 m |
Show
|
Have to admit, I really like both teams in this game. But why I am choosing Nevada is they have so many ways to score. Also, when they start making shots they also defend better. As the spread suggests, this will not be easy, but the variety the Wolfpack have on offense will be the difference in the end.
|
03-21-18 |
Utah +6.5 v. St. Mary's |
|
67-58 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 45 m |
Show
|
Utah comes into this contest 8-2 ATS off a home win and is the stronger, more physical team that has more quickness. St. Mary's has struggled against clubs like the Utes and are 1-7 ATS versus good teams with a shooting percentage defense of 42% or lower this season. Two point game either way.
|
03-21-18 |
Pacers v. Pelicans +1 |
|
92-96 |
Win
|
101 |
3 h 43 m |
Show
|
Both teams are playing pretty well, but I prefer how New Orleans who is shooting the ball and defending and they find a way to knock off the Pacers.
|
03-20-18 |
Thunder -4.5 v. Celtics |
|
99-100 |
Loss |
-108 |
3 h 57 m |
Show
|
Oklahoma City brings its six-game winning streak (5-1 ATS) to Bean Town to face the injury-plagued Celtics. Boston is almost as beat-up as Facebook these days, and are up from two points as home underdogs to +4.5 to the Thunder. Not having Kyrie Irving really affects the C's offense, the same is true without Marcus Smart on defense and their depth has been depleted. While this seems like a big number for OKC to beat, Russell Westbrook is playing on another level and he leads his team to the win and covers.
|
03-19-18 |
Western Kentucky +5 v. USC |
|
79-75 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 24 m |
Show
|
USC needed OT to beat UNC-Asheville. The Trojans are without their two best players and Western Kentucky is a solid squad. One point outcome either way. The Hilltoppers are 10-3 ATS having won 3 of their last 4 games this season.
|
03-19-18 |
Pistons v. Kings +3.5 |
|
106-90 |
Loss |
-102 |
5 h 57 m |
Show
|
Kings playing about as well as they have all season, while Pistons just are not very good. The half-point hook is a bonus with Sac-Town.
|
03-19-18 |
LSU v. Utah -4.5 |
|
71-95 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 54 m |
Show
|
LSU cannot handle success and is 2-8 ATS after covering two of their last three against the spread this season. Utah by 7.
|
03-19-18 |
Mercer -2 v. North Texas |
|
67-96 |
Loss |
-103 |
3 h 55 m |
Show
|
Mercer was flipped from underdog to favorite and its deserving, being on a 9-1 SU and ATS move. Mercer by 6.
|
03-19-18 |
Bulls +5 v. Knicks |
|
92-110 |
Loss |
-103 |
2 h 28 m |
Show
|
Bulls covering spreads and playing well. Expect them to cover.
|
03-18-18 |
Florida State v. Xavier -5.5 |
|
75-70 |
Loss |
-103 |
9 h 10 m |
Show
|
Florida State is like a lot of teams that are the next tier down in college basketball, you never know what you are going to get. That is why I prefer the consistency of Xavier and the star power that have to win by 8 or more.
|
03-18-18 |
Maryland-Baltimore County v. Kansas State -10 |
|
43-50 |
Loss |
-108 |
8 h 16 m |
Show
|
Kansas State knows what they are up against and priority one will be to frustrate UMBC. If they can accomplish this and build a working margin, they start to take away the belief from these underdogs that they can retrieve another victory. Once disappointment sets in, the Wildcats will end up winning by 13.
|
03-18-18 |
Clemson +1.5 v. Auburn |
|
84-53 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 41 m |
Show
|
The shine is off the Auburn apple and they do not play as well when they are forced into lower scoring defensive games. Clemson's defense and ability to be more consistent on offense makes them a winner.
|
03-18-18 |
Drake v. Northern Colorado -7 |
|
72-81 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 30 m |
Show
|
|
03-17-18 |
Cavs v. Bulls +6.5 |
|
114-109 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 20 m |
Show
|
Chicago has been playing better at 4-3 and 5-2 ATS and why should any basketball consider the Bulls with this many points against a Cleveland team this 12-39 ATS as a favorite! Cavs win by two 2 and fall to 8-23 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
|
03-17-18 |
Seton Hall v. Kansas -4.5 |
|
79-83 |
Loss |
-103 |
5 h 40 m |
Show
|
The Jayhawks are back to playing like we expected and Seton Hall will be worn down by Kansas relentlessness. Also, the Pirates are pathetic 0-8 ATS after playing a game where both teams score 80 points or more.
|
03-17-18 |
Pacers +4.5 v. Wizards |
|
102-109 |
Loss |
-103 |
4 h 19 m |
Show
|
Indiana is a solid 19-14 ATS on the road, while Washington is 7-19 ATS as a home favorite this season. This will be a two-point game either way.
|
03-17-18 |
Buffalo v. Kentucky -5.5 |
|
75-95 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 20 m |
Show
|
Buffalo most likely is not going to connect on 15 of 30 three's like they did Thursday night. Kentucky has faced Auburn, Ole Miss and others that like to play fast, which will help them. Being on an 8-1 SU and ATS streak, the Wildcats defense has gotten even better in holding teams under 40 percent and we have seen Coach Cal always demanding coming out on three-point shooters with their length, while still having rim protectors. Expect a good, fun contest, but it will be the Wildcats by 8.
|
03-17-18 |
Alabama v. Villanova -11 |
|
58-81 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 14 m |
Show
|
Alabama is like a yo-yo, up one minute up and down the next. High quality Jay Wright teams have put teams like this away the last several years. I also like the fact Top 4 seeds favored by 10 or more points are close to unbeatable at 37-1 SU and extremely profitable with a 25-13 ATS mark the past 16 tournaments. The clincher, neutral court favorites scoring 76 or more PPG, against teams averaging 67-74 PPG after 15+ contests, after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half, are 10-2 ATS the last several seasons.
|
03-16-18 |
Heat v. Lakers -4 |
|
92-91 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 26 m |
Show
|
No Whitehead means no win for Miami against red-hot Lakers.
|
03-16-18 |
Clippers v. Thunder UNDER 224 |
|
113-121 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 54 m |
Show
|
Play UNDER on March home teams when the total is 210 or higher like OKLAHOMA CITY, after four or more consecutive wins. These teams are 39-8, 83.0 percent the last five years including 11-2 this March.
|
03-16-18 |
College of Charleston +9 v. Auburn |
|
58-62 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 37 m |
Show
|
Similar to how Greensboro hung around Gonzaga, Charleston has the same ability to do the same with Auburn. Charleston is solid in all areas, plays with complete confidence, which is something the Tigers no longer have. Auburn probably wins but by five or less.
|
03-16-18 |
Kansas State +1.5 v. Creighton |
|
69-59 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 58 m |
Show
|
Most every power rating I have says Creighton wins by two. I have one that measures recent performance and that one has Kansas State by two. When considering recent play, the Wildcats being the stronger defensive squad and the Bluejays road woes (5-9 SU and 4-10 ATS), I'll side with the small underdog. I would also like to add coach Weber in his career is 10-1 ATS in away games after a setback by 15 or more points.
|
03-16-18 |
Texas v. Nevada +1 |
|
83-87 |
Win
|
102 |
23 h 37 m |
Show
|
Nevada has won 24, 28 and 27 games in their three seasons and they run some the best offense in the country in averaging 83.1 points a game. The Wolfpack do not play overly fast in putting up this many points, with 60 attempts a game. But because they are eighth nationally in offensive efficiency and drain almost 40 percent of three-balls, they are an offensive force. Granted, the Wolfpack are feeling the effects of long season, but they still have four players averaging 13.5 to 19.5 PPG. Unless one of their players is injured during the game and cannot play, not sure how Texas keeps up, which is why I'll support Nevada.
|
03-15-18 |
South Dakota State +8 v. Ohio State |
|
73-81 |
Push |
0 |
16 h 44 m |
Show
|
Ohio State has speed and quickness edge but South Dakota State can put up a ton of points. As noted elsewhere, No. 5 seeds coming off a loss are 6-20-2 ATS in opening round games the last eight years including 2-15-2 ATS with a win percentage of .727 or greater.
|
03-15-18 |
Loyola-Chicago +1.5 v. Miami-FL |
|
64-62 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 56 m |
Show
|
A Loyola-Chicago (28-5, 20-9 ATS) home game became the hottest ticket starting in February for any winter event in the Windy City. Having seldom even come close to competing in the Horizon League or now the Missouri Valley, this team had a season for the ages. However, this is no miracle, as this veteran team works hard and intelligently on both ends of the court and plays aggressively throughout. Coach Porter Moser has a group of young men who have bought into guarding for the entire shot clock on each enemy possession. Each defensive rebound is treated as a chance to pressure the opposing team, but once the Ramblers set up in the halfcourt offense, they are very efficient, converting on 46.8 percent of shots on the road and 38.6 percent on three's. At least one double-digit seed will play in the Round of 32. Loyola has every element necessary to pull this off. A defense that can generate multiple stops and force opponents to become nervous on offense. A veteran team that will not get rattled and one that will move the ball to find the best shot available. Clayton Custer (13.7 PPG) was the POY in the MVC and center Cameron Krutwig (10.5) is a presence in the lane on offense and a fine position defender. The Ramblers roll to Saturday in Boise.
|
03-15-18 |
Iona +21 v. Duke |
|
67-89 |
Loss |
-115 |
15 h 55 m |
Show
|
I'm willing to go against No.2 seeds like Duke who are 1-13-1 ATS when favored by 18 or more points in both team's first game.
|
03-14-18 |
Arizona State v. Syracuse +2 |
|
56-60 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 32 m |
Show
|
My power ratings have Syracuse winning by 3,3 or 4 points. The Orange's can slow ASU offense and the Cuse can take advantage of a weak Sun Devils defense.
|
03-14-18 |
Niagara v. Eastern Michigan -8.5 |
|
65-83 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
Eastern Michigan has been playing great the last part of the season and would have done more in the MAC tourney, but got beat by a three in the final seconds but still covered on a game I had on them.
|
03-13-18 |
Nuggets v. Lakers +2 |
|
103-112 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 22 m |
Show
|
The Lakers are just playing well and Denver is 11-20 SU on the road. With L.A./1 12-2 ATS after scoring 110 points or more two straight games this season, they win the game.
|
03-13-18 |
Rider +11.5 v. Oregon |
|
86-99 |
Loss |
-102 |
5 h 48 m |
Show
|
Rider has the attributes to hang with Oregon and unlike a lot of these games in the first round of the small tournaments, the schedule differential is not as severe. Oregon wins, just by 6 or less.
|
03-13-18 |
Hornets v. Pelicans -5 |
|
115-119 |
Loss |
-102 |
3 h 52 m |
Show
|
New Orleans has lost last two, but they are 11-2 ATS when the Hornets/Bobcats visit the Big Easy. Also, Charlotte is 0-8 ATS after three or more consecutive Over's this season.
|
03-13-18 |
Boston College v. Western Kentucky -4.5 |
|
62-79 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
Underrated club out of C-USA and would like nothing more to beat and an ACC club, even if Boston College.
|
03-11-18 |
Rockets v. Mavs +10 |
|
105-82 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 8 m |
Show
|
James Harden is not expected to play and Houston is 12-24 ATS after playing two consecutive road games where he plays or not. With Dallas playing better and 5-2 ATS, they deserve a look.
|
03-11-18 |
Jazz -2.5 v. Pelicans |
|
116-99 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 8 m |
Show
|
A. Davis will play, but he's not 100 percent, besides, home underdogs like New Orleans after having covered four or five of their last six against the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are just 9-36 ATS.
|
03-11-18 |
Texas-Arlington v. Georgia State -2 |
|
61-74 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
|
UT- Arlington got there big win yesterday and they will be struggling against Georgia State's stifling defense.
|
03-11-18 |
Kentucky v. Tennessee -1.5 |
|
77-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 5 m |
Show
|
Here are two things Kentucky and Tennessee fans know. The Wildcats have won 18 SEC conference titles since the Vols last won there's in 1979. But this Tennessee has already beaten Kentucky twice this season and as luck would have, the last time the Vols had a 3-0 sweep of their rivals was...drumroll....1979 when they won the SEC. Look for history to repeat itself and the tougher more physical Volunteers defeat Big Blue.
|
03-10-18 |
USC v. Arizona -3.5 |
|
61-75 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 49 m |
Show
|
Ultra-talented Arizona club continues to play to potential and knocks off USC by 6.
|
03-10-18 |
Wizards +5 v. Heat |
|
102-129 |
Loss |
-102 |
6 h 8 m |
Show
|
With Washington 12-3 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record Miami 1-8 ATS at home off a home win this season, I will definitely grab the points.
|
03-10-18 |
San Diego State -4 v. New Mexico |
|
82-75 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 39 m |
Show
|
A big physical team that has peaked at exactly the right time. Aztecs by 9.
|
03-10-18 |
Davidson v. St Bonaventure +3.5 |
|
82-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
|
Davidson is a great shooting team and is very well-coached, but the Bonnie's have better athletes and are 15-5 ATS in away games after scoring 80 points or more. St. Bonnie's Outright!
|
03-10-18 |
Alabama v. Kentucky -4.5 |
|
63-86 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 51 m |
Show
|
Kentucky is gathering momentum and this is Alabama's third game in three days and they are expected to be without one key player. Wildcats by 10.
|
03-09-18 |
Southern Utah v. Eastern Washington -7.5 |
Top |
70-82 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 7 m |
Show
|
Southern Utah loses Cinderella status and is tripped up by HOT Eastern Washington who wins by 12.
|
03-09-18 |
Butler v. Villanova -8 |
|
68-87 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 3 m |
Show
|
Butler defense not good enough to contain Villanova, especially on the road.
|
03-09-18 |
Butler v. Villanova OVER 149.5 |
|
68-87 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 3 m |
Show
|
Look for plenty of points as this total is closer to 160 than 150.
|
03-09-18 |
Eastern Michigan +2 v. Toledo |
|
63-64 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 39 m |
Show
|
Underrated Eagles are playing as well as anyone in the MAC and stun Toledo to each MAC Finals.
|
03-09-18 |
Louisiana-Monroe v. Georgia Southern -3.5 |
|
55-63 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 10 m |
Show
|
Georgia Southern a solid club and they win by 6 over UL-Monroe club who has peaked.
|
03-09-18 |
Temple +11.5 v. Wichita State |
|
81-89 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 42 m |
Show
|
The Owls played Wichita State close twice, no reason to think that cannot happen again. Shockers win by 8 or less.
|
03-07-18 |
DePaul v. Marquette -5 |
|
69-72 |
Loss |
-109 |
5 h 55 m |
Show
|
Golden Eagles in revenge mode win by 10.
|
03-07-18 |
Fordham v. George Washington -6 |
|
72-78 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 45 m |
Show
|
Backing better team that wins by 10.
|
03-06-18 |
Heat +4 v. Wizards |
|
113-117 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 14 m |
Show
|
Miami is in really good form while the Wizards have lost three straight. The Heat is 14-6 ATS as a road underdog of six points or less this season.
|
03-06-18 |
Northeastern +2 v. College of Charleston |
|
76-83 |
Loss |
-101 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
Charleston has beaten Northeastern twice this season but as the point spread points out, not much difference between these teams at the present time. I'll take the underdog Huskies who playing with revenge of a home loss, off a win by 20 points or more over a conference rival, when the line is +3 to -3 (32-14 ATS)
|
03-05-18 |
Magic +9.5 v. Jazz |
|
80-94 |
Loss |
-103 |
7 h 25 m |
Show
|
Utah shooting remains a concern and Orlando is 8-3 ATS catching 9.5 or more points this season.
|
03-05-18 |
NC-Wilmington v. Northeastern -7 |
|
52-79 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 49 m |
Show
|
Northeastern in excellent form and though UNC-Wilmington is 11-20, they had trouble with them twice and will not take them lightly with a date to the championship game on tap.
|