J. Arrieta is in top form and pitching like he has in the past in playoff mode. In his career, Arrieta is 47-17 after giving up two or less earned runs in his last two outings. (Teams record) While the Padres have played better of late, they still have lost 13 of 15 at home and are 13-34  vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better this season. 

M. Boyd's numbers are nothing special for Detroit, but he and his teammates are 7-3 at home and he has a nice 2.93 ERA. The Twins are bringing up minor league pitcher K. Stewart, who's been better recently, but on the season has 4.47 ERA at Double and Triple A. I'll back the Tigers with the Twinkies 21-39 on the road. 

Even if the first-team reps are limited to one series or one quarter, the Vikings appear to have too much on both sides of the ball to let the Broncos gain any separation. Additionally, Minnesota backup quarterback Trevor Siemian will undoubtedly be eager to get a few cracks at Denver’s reserves on defense. Minny has covered five of seven NFLX roadies while the Denver is 2-10 ATS the last few years. 

T. Williams has conceded two runs in his past four starts covering 22 innings for Pittsburgh. The Pirates offense had been in overdrive with 34 runs in their past four contests and hard to imagine T. Blach will slow them down for the Giants. Plus, the Bucs are a solid 17-9 on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. 

K. Freeland is the rarest of pitchers, he likes pitching at Coors and he's 7-2 with a 2.81 ERA in 10 starts there this season. His home ERA is the fourth best in the National League and it ranks as the lowest in Rockies history for a single season. With W. Buehler having an ERA over 5 on the road, the Dodgers scoring just 3.9 RPG vs. LH starters, the Rockies take Game 3 in the series. 

R. Stanek will be the Rays "starter" and maybe last two innings, but you should know his team is 0-6 on the road when that happens. S. Gaviglio has not won a game since May, but he has 2.90 ERA at home the Blue Jays have won four of his seven starts. Even with last night's shutout, the Jays are still averaging 5.0 RPG in their last seven and get the win. 

Padres starting a rookie pitcher and in truth, he's one of their better prospects, but they are 6-27 as a home underdog of +100 or higher this season. In addition, the Phillies fit a 96-31 system of mine tonight.

Extra large pitching disparity with Z. Wheeler against the Marlins J. Urena, especially in Miami. Plus, Marlins are averaging 2.0 RPG in their last seven games. 

Tanaka and the Yankees are 10-0 against the run line in home games vs. an AL team with a slugging percentage .410 or worse in the second half of the season the last three years. 

Baltimore gave a surprisingly weak effort last Thursday and got back-doored by Chicago. I don't anticipate that happening again, especially at home and against a better opponent like the Rams. The Ravens are 8-1 ATS the last three years in August, 7-0 ATS, when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points like it is now and 6-0 ATS if they are off one or more wins. 

What I'm recommending is a Red Sox and Yankees parlay for tonight. 

It is turning into a lost season for the Nationals. With a chance to make headway, even with a victory today, the best the Nats can do is get a split. The Braves A. Sanchez has been stellar all year and he and his teammates are 6-2 on the road and he's 10-1 against Washington. G. Gonzalez has returned to his inconsistent ways of late and he's 5-11 against Atlanta. 

We all know how bad the Royals are and they are up against this system tonight. Play Against AL underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 like KANSAS CITY, scoring 3.6 or fewer runs a game, against a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.33 or lower, with 10 straight games with one or less errors. In the last 21 years these teams are abysmal 4-44 and most importantly, they are losing by 3.8 RPG. 

B. Johnson has pitched well for Boston and he's backed up by the most complete team in baseball. The Red Sox could have lost twice last night but did not, and are 21-4 vs. an AL team with a batting .265 or worse in the second half of the season. Toronto calls up some guy named Mike Hauschild, who on July 30th was released from the Astros Triple-A team. The Jays are 6-21 vs. teams averaging 1.25 or more HR's a game this season. 

The Angels have had their problems with LH starters and are 11-21 and will face one today. But the Tigers have dropped five straight, scoring eight total runs. The Big A has not been kind to the Tigers who have lost 23 of 30 there and 48 of 65. In the Tigers last 41 games they have won only 11 and they are 15 -40 on the road. The Halos offense is not much, but they have scored 60 runs in their past seven home games. 

Massive difference in starting pitchers with Z. Greinke vs. N. Pivetta. Whatever team Greinke has played for, when he's pitched at home, he awesome. How good, what about at 28-6 home games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse or 80-22 as a home favorite of -150 or more. (Team's Record) The Snakes are the play. 

Boston just swept the Yankees in four games, they have the best record in baseball by eight games, yet at this moment they are a falling road favorite to Toronto. The Red Sox have slid from -125 to -105 and the culprit has to be Drew Pomeranz (1-5, 6.56), who is trying to hang on to his starting job. Besides, it's not like Boston cannot get to Blue Jays starter Marcus Stroman (4-8, 5.63) and the Jays bullpen ERA is more than a run higher than the BoSox. Can Toronto win, certainly. But at this price the Sawx make sense and the Jays are 14-26 versus LH starters.

Though D. Rodriguez was fantastic in July for the Giants, C. Morton (12-2) has been special all season for Houston. While San Francisco can be a tough out at home, the champs are 39-18 on the road and 34-11 as a road favorite of -125 or more. Add in they are  21-6 in away games after allowing three runs or less in two straight games this season. 

This will take a little courage because of the size of the number, but look for C. Hamels and Cubs to come through. Some will say the lefty is not the pitcher he used to be at 34, my guess being a playoff contender will get Hamels excited again and he's20-4 vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs a game in the second half of the season for his career. (Team's Record) Add in the Royals are 0-12 in home games vs. a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better, Cubs Win, Cubs Win.

This is more a play against H. Bailey, who is the Matt Cain of this time, a guy with a contract that a team cannot afford to just cut because he's terrible, even if that is what they prefer to do. The Reds and Bailey are 1-13 in his starts and Cincy is  8-26 in road games having lost four of their last five games. Finally, Bailey is 1-5 with a 7.22 ERA in seven starts against the Mets. It is his highest ERA against any team he has opposed more than two times. while N. Snydergaard is 3-0 with a 1.98 ERA in four starts against the Reds.

Orioles pitchers finally slowed Rangers bats yesterday but could not score themselves. Former Blue Jay D. Hutchinson will be the latest reclamation project to start for Texas and he's coming in with 23 scoreless innings at Triple A. I don't have to remind you how bad Baltimore is and I could write a novel about how terrible this team is. Let's take Texas to sweep with the O's 0-10 in road games vs. an AL team with a batting average of .255 or worse. 

C. Buchholz has rejuvenated his career and thrown well for Arizona. Though the D-Backs have split the first two games with the Giants, they have 22 hits and going back seven contests, they are averaging better than 10 hits an outing. With that they are 20-7 after two or more Over's in 2018. 

After losing opener today, Washington bounces back with J. Hellickson, who has a 1.50 ERA against Cincy in four starts. Tough to win two games in one day as a road underdog in both. 

After being whipped twice by Boston, the Yankees are taking a chance on Chance Adams at their starter. This seems to be asking a lot of a pitcher to win against the best team in baseball on the road. I have to admit I'm not a big N. Eovaldi fan, but the Red Sox are 26-5 in day games, 18-3 at home when having won three of four and the Yanks are 5-12 on the road when the total is 10 or higher.

After scoring six runs in three contests, Boston unloaded on Yankees pitching and hung 15 on the scoreboard Thursday night. When looking at Luis Severino's (14-4, 2.94) four-game stretch where he's been hit hard and Rick Porcello (13-4, 4.08) being up and down like a 14-year old at a Bruno Mars concert, the total jumped from 9 to 9.5. Both pitchers are capable of lockdown performances, but I'll agree with the line movement and these pitchers are a combined 30-9 OVER in trends I like to follow. 

With the Cubs playing mediocre baseball, this is the Cardinals or Pirates chance to gain ground on them and Milwaukee, as they open up this series. This opening contest has seen line moves both on the money line and the total. Pittsburgh is up 20 cents to -155. Chris Archer (3-5,4.31 ERA) makes his Bucs debut and his new teammates have won 16 of their last 20. John Gant (3-4, 3.49) will toe the rubber for the Redbirds. I will go for the upset with the Cards with Pitt 0-10 after a loss by six or more to a division rival. 

Not 100% sold on M. Montgomery, but he has 2.89 ERA at Wrigley as a starter this season and the Padres are scoring 3.1 RPG of late. R. Erlin had an ERA over 12 before being pulled as a starter but is forced to start because of injury on a team that was 5-20 in July. The Friars are a dismal 13-32 as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season. 

I actually like watching A. Heaney pitch, but he and the Angels are 2-7 on the road and the lefty has a 5.40 ERA away from home. Besides this, the situation set up well for Tampa Bay, who is 15-4 in home day games and 9-1 at home vs. an AL team with a batting average of .265 or worse in the second half of the season. 

After being swept in Colorado, the A's have gotten right back on track, taking the first two games of the series. I'll say they get the sweep since Oakland is  8-0 vs. teams outscored by 0.5 or more runs a game in the second half of the season and 9-0 if they have a losing record. Toss in the Jays are facing S. Manaea and they are 12-25 vs. lefties. 

S. Gray is coming around and we know how bad Baltimore really is. In addition, run line underdogs with an on-base percentage of .375 or better over their last five games, against an opponent, starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing are 6-33 the last 21 years, losing by 3.7 RPG. 

After an OVER last night, these are two hot offenses. Texas is scoring 7.4 RPG in there last seven outings and the Snakes are at 5.3 RPG. Both starting pitchers have ERA's over 4.75 and though the bullpens are strong in road/home scenarios, I'll forecast at least 10 runs tallied.

San Diego is 5-19 this month and  2-12 in home games after scoring four runs or less in three straight games this season. 

Colorado is playing excellent baseball on 18-6 run and just swept one of the hottest teams in Oakland. T. Anderson has been pitching really well for the Rockies and has a 1.86 ERA in his last three starts. Anderson and his teammates are 7-0 in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse this season. Plus, the Rocks are recently 17-5 against teams with a winning record. 

We will start with the Padres are 8-27 and with last night's loss have dropped 12 straight series. C. Buchholz is pitching incredibly well for the Snakes and in his career is 23-9 in road games after giving up two or less earned runs in his last two outings. (team's record) We'll finish it off with the Friars 6-26 as a home underdog of +100 or higher this season. 

Washington cannot sustain anything. After three strong wins, they score once and lose last night and published reports had a lot of frustration bubbling up. I think they will come to play and are 41-18 after scoring and allowing three runs or less. J. Hellickson is 9-2 when the total is 8 to 8.5 (team's record) the last two years, while J. Urena and the Marlins are 5-15 this season and 3-10 at home. 

Let's start with the Snakes are averaging 5.7 RPG since the All-Star break. Next, let's mix in P. Corbin Corbin has a 2.23 ERA in his last six starts, conceding no home runs and he and his mates are 5-1 in his last six road starts. Let's blend in the Padres are 10-21 vs. LH starters and 2-14 as a home underdog of +125 or more this season. 

V. Velasquez has been very good in recent starts for the Phillies and he has a sharp 2.42 on the road. M. Harvey is pitching like, well like he normally does and is much less effective of late and in the past three years is 8-19 when the money line is +125 to -125. (Team's Record) Lastly, underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher, with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last three games, against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.50 over his last five starts, are 61-163 since 2014. 

Both Oakland and Colorado are playing well, but I trust S. Manaea and A's bullpen more than I trust K. Freeland and the Rockies pen. Also, hard to overlook the Athletics are 35-21 on the road and the Rocks are a .500 home team. 

Texas is folding up like a tent, while Houston's D. Kuechel is starting to find his groove. The Astros are punishing bad teams and are 32-6 vs. clubs that are outscored by 0.5 or more runs game on the season, winning by 3.3 RPG. 

Dodgers clubbing home runs and are averaging 5.9 RPG in last seven. Atlanta has not played well in awhile and has never had much success with C. Kershaw. The Braves are 12-29 in home games after scoring three runs or less in two straight games. 

After winning 11 in a row, Pittsburgh has dropped two straight and will look to avoid a third consecutive setback. Enough bettors are not so certain the Pirates will, even being good-sized home favorites. The Bucs has slid from -170 to -150 against the Mets and are counting on Ivan Nova (6-6, 4.28 ERA) to turn the tide. Nova is 4-1 with a 3.40 ERA in eight starts since being reinstated from the DL and he is presumed to face a seemingly washed up Jason Vargas (2-6, 8.60), who is coming off the DL himself. Despite the Pirates 11-16 record versus LH starter, I'll side with them with New York 1-8 after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more. 

Going with better team here and road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 like MINNESOTA, with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last three games, against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA less than 2.50 over his last five starts, are a miserable 9-55 the last 21 years. 

Washington shows no signs of being anything more than .500 and they are only 6-11 after a win by four runs or more this season. T. Milone steps in as a starter, but the Marlins D. Straily has put together five really good starts, which is his tendency and why he is 17-7 (+14.7 Units) vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season the last three seasons. (Team's Record) 

J. Flaherty has been tough for St. Louis and he's going up a Cincy team that really cooled off in scoring just nine runs in their last four games. The Cardinals are 11-4 against the Reds this season including 7-2 when on the road. Cincinnati is 8-26 after a 5-game span with an OBP of .285 or worse, while the Redbirds are 12-1 after scoring four runs or less in three straight games this season. 

I realize the Rockies have been playing very well. Yet, I cannot overlook G. Cole and the Astros are 16-4 in his starts and Colorado with T. Anderson are 3-7 at Coors Field. Houston is an amazing 24-6 after three or more consecutive road games this season and for Cole's career, he is 27-6 as a road favorite of -125 or more. (Team's Record) 

After losing seven straight, Milwaukee has won two of three after defeating Washington last night. The betting action is on the total, up from 9 to 9.5.  Junior Guerra (6-6, 3.23) is off a rare poor outing and spent some time on the DL, but he's 13-1 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5 the last three seasons. He will face Jeremy Hellickson (4-1, 3.29), who has enjoyed an unexpectedly good campaign and he's 10-3 UNDER this season in his starts. My numbers come up to 8.3 for a total and I'll side with the UNDER. 

I'm coming right back with Oakland, who continues to shine. A's starter Frankie Montas is ready for action on the road and he and his mates are 4-0 in the traveling uniforms this season.  M. Minor has enjoyed a few good outings this season, but his team is 10-22 in home games against right-handed starters and is 2-12 at home off a loss by six runs or more to a division rival the last three seasons. 

As great as Aaron Nola (12-3, 2.30 ERA) has been all season, baseball bettors have decided he's not pitching for the better team. Philadelphia opened as a -115 favorite over L.A., but have been flipped to +100 underdogs. There is still time for this to jump around, but Kenta Maeda (7-5, 3.12) has pitched nearly as well as his counterpart, particularly of late. Though the Dodgers offense has generated at least 10 hits in six straight games, Nola and Phils are 8-0 at home and 9-0 vs. teams who strand 6.9 or fewer runners on base per game this season.

The A's continue to play great baseball with an 11-5 July record. B. Anderson is certainly not a great starter for Oakland, but C. Hamels has an ERA over 10 in his last three starts and is giving up a ton of home runs. Oddsmakers are expecting a lot of runs with the total at 10.5, which I think favors the A's who are 25-9 vs. teams outscored by 0.5 or more runs a game and if they have a lead after seven innings, they are an MLB-best 39-0! 

The Brewers have lost seven straight and have to face Clayton Kershaw tonight. Milwaukee has averaged 3.3 RPG in this dreadful stretch and faces an excited Dodgers club that is fired up to have Manny Machado. While C. Anderson for the Brew Crew has 1.67 ERA in his past three outings, he's 2-7 with a 5.44 ERA against Dodger Blue. (Team's record) For the clincher, Kershaw and his L.A. mates are 36-5 vs teams who strand 6.9 or fewer runners on base per game most recently. 

Philadelphia was not hitting much on the road before the break, but now back home, look for the Phillies to bust out. Philly is 30-16 at home and averages 4.6 RPG in their building compared to 4.1 away from home. Plus, starter Jake Arrieta (7-6, 3.23 ERA) is getting into his crunch time mode with a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts and he faces a faltering Padres team that has lost 16 of 21. 

With the Friars 21-43 vs. a team with a bullpen WHIP of 1.35 or better, who is 11-29 as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season, Philadelphia improves their home record. 

Atlanta's just not hitting and S. Newcombe is throwing like a tired pitcher. Arizona is 20-14 vs. LH starters and think about this; Z. Greinke is 59-19 vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season for his career. (Team's Record) 

Philly is 22-9 having won three of their last four games and has their ace A. Nola pitching, who is 12-2. Nola and the Phils are 11-1 vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse and NL home teams like Miami, with a team on-base percentage .310 or worse on the season, with an on-base percentage of .375 or better over their last five games, are 16-43 in their next contest since 2014. 

Detroit has lost five straight and is 15-33 on the road. Houston is 15-4 in G. Cole's starts and they are 31-5 vs. teams outscored by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season, winning by 3.6 RPG. 

Colorado is playing well in winning 10 and 13 and are finally playing well at Coors having won nine of 12. I think they will continue to keep winning for at least one more night with their offense up to usual standards at home and the Mariners offense is scuffling in scoring only 3.7 RPG in their last seven. 

Neither Atlanta or Arizona is playing well, but I'll give the edge to Braves because of this. Though the D-Backs remain a decent play as an underdog, they are 6-16 after scoring two runs or less in two straight games and are 2-10 vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.05 or better this season. 

J. Guerra know how to pitch for Milwaukee and he can navigate a Pirates team that is averaged 3.7 RPG of late and he is backed up by a solid bullpen. Guerra and the Crew are a solid 16-8 when he pitches off a Brewers loss and they are 10-3 having lost three of their last four. 

Colorado had a big night Wednesday with 19 runs, but for the season they are 23-19 UNDER at home and when facing LH starters like R. Ray, they are 22-14 UNDER. According to reports, Ray had his best bullpen session of the season and could have a sharp outing. The Rockies K. Freeland is one the premier UNDER hurlers in baseball and is 19-4 UNDER when the total is 10 or higher and 16-4 UNDER is day games. 

Coming right back with the Redbirds. Neither starting pitcher is impressing anyone, thus, the edge goes to the better team, St. Louis in this case. The Cards are also really swinging the lumber, averaging 6.9 RPG in the last seven, while the White Sox continue to labor. Lastly, L. Weaver and the Cardinals are 8-0 at night on the road.

Coming right back with the Redbirds. Neither starting pitcher is impressing anyone, thus, the edge goes to the better team, St. Louis in this case. The Cards are also really swinging the lumber, averaging 6.9 RPG in the last seven, while the White Sox continue to labor. Lastly, L. Weaver and the Cardinals are 8-0 at night on the road.

The Cardinals M. Mikolas (9-3, 2.63 ERA) continues to pitch great, the same is not true of the White Sox D. Covey (3-4, 5.54 ERA). He's tasted adversity as of late with a 0-3 record and a 13.20 ERA in his last four starts. The Redbirds offense has perked up in averaging 5.7 RPG in their last seven, while the Pale Hose has lost five straight, nine of 11 and are  2-15 vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's a start this season. 

I would rather pay the higher price for A. Nola in Game 2 against the Mets on the road. Nola has been extremely sharp everywhere of late and he and the Phils are 10-1 vs. a NL team with an on-base percentage .325 or worse this season. (Team's Record) Plus, New York is 2-19 as a home underdog of +125 to +175.

Betting against the Orioles continues to be quite profitable. They face Sabathia in the opener and are 10-20 against lefties. In addition, the O's are 2-18 as a home underdog of +100 or higher, losing by 2.5 RPG and 3-20 after scoring one run or less this season, losing by 2.4 RPG.

The Cubs don't quit and their last eight wins have been in come from behind fashion. That will not a problem today as they get after L. Castillo and J. Lester works his magic. The Cubs are 14-3 when Lester starts this year and are 27-8 after batting .315 or better over a 5-game span.

Boston is really good and Kansas City is flat out horrible. This season the Royals have played 24 games against teams with .620 or better win percentage and they have lost those games by 3.8 RPG on average. 

Though the Brewers J. Guerra has an outstanding 2.67 ERA and is backed by a great bullpen, he's only 5-5 this season. Milwaukee is in the midst of a great season but is only 9-9 vs. LH starters. I'll back the Braves who are 20-10 in days games and 9-1 after two straight games with no home runs this season. 

The K.C. young starter has been sharp, but he's not faced the Red Sox lineup. Look for D. Price to have a bounce-back game versus the worst lineup in baseball. I have a Super System to play against the Royals and the average margin of victory is 3.9 RPG.

I understand J. Arrieta has not been particularly good of late for the Phillies. But Philadelphia is on a 7-1 tear while Pittsburgh has dropped five of six. Arrieta is also 12-6 with a 3.01 ERA in 22 career starts against Pittsburgh. The Phils have won all five games against the Bucs this season and are 20-8 after scoring 8 runs or more.

I have never thought J. Samardjiza was anything better than a No.5 starter and him having a 10-27 mark playing against a team with a winning record the last three seasons (Team's Record) proves that point. C. Martinez is coming around and St. Louis is a perfect 10-0 in road games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.65 or worse.

For the time being, Kenta Maeda (5-5, 3.36) has shed his up and down tendencies and been quite effective of late. Maeda figures to suppress an Angels offense that is averaging 3.1 RPG in their last 10 contests. Nonetheless, the total in the opening battle in this I-5 series has risen from 8.5 to 9. Among the reason why is a Dodgers offense that has heated up again, which at 6.3 RPG in their last seven. With Dodger Blue at a robust 5.5 RPG on the road and 12-4 OVER in away games after a victory, the OVER makes sense. 

Reports out of Detroit have J. Zimmermann having a good change and getting command of the slider again. I think Zimmermann pitches well, the Tigers score on B. Colon and get a victory. 

M. Gonzales has not been fantastic against the Angels, but Seattle has won both his starts and the two combined are 6-2 at home. The team from Anaheim has struggled all year against LH starters, putting together a 6-15 record. Finally, consider the Mariners are 18-4 as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season and that Gonzales is 9-0 after giving up one or less earned runs in his last start. (Team's record) 

M. Minor pitching surprisingly well, but so is G. Cole and that Houston bullpen has been airtight of late. Cole is 19-3 as a favorite of -150 or more the last seasons (Team's Record) and the Astros are 19-3 in road division games.

As previously expressed, I'm no fan of W. LeBlanc, still, the Angels are 6-14 vs. LH starters. Also consider LeBlanc and the M's are 6-0 at home and he's 12-0 in home starts the past three years. (Team's record) Lastly, when A. Heaney starts and his team is off a loss, they are 1-9. 

It's a given how bad the Orioles are. In addition, teams like Philly off two consecutive one run wins over a division rival, that is starting a pitcher who gave up two or less earned runs in his last two outings are 31-11.

Twins bullpen a disaster right now and starting pitcher J. Odorizzi seldom has back to back strong outings. Look for Brewers to further expose Twinkies relievers, as Minny is 2-10 after a 5-game span where the bullpen ERA was 7.00 or worse this season. 

Both the Cards and D-Backs are coming in off being swept at home. The Snakes caught a Giants team at the wrong time and matches up against the Cardinals where they have overall pitching edges. Plus, here is an angle worth noting. In the last two years, R. Ray and the Diamondbacks are 14-0 after he gave up one or less earned runs in his last outing.

I thought the Padres would win the series going in against Pittsburgh and I like the fact T. Ross and his team are 11-5 when he pitches and is 5-1 at home.

F. Peralta has thrown very well for Milwaukee, which is not what you can say about M. Harvey for the Reds. The Brewers bullpen had a rotten day and as a team, they bounce back and the Crew is 11-2 after a loss by four or more runs. 

C. Sales is in a great groove and S. Gray is a wild card each time he takes the ball. Red Sox even up series with a victory.

Nats bats finally came alive last night and J. Hellickson is back from the DL for them. Also, teams like the Phillies off a loss by eight runs or more to a division rival, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.00 or lower over his last three starts, are 8-21 since 2016 and 0-6 this year. 

Everyone is down on J. Chacin after one bad outing. RELAX! He is still 12-4 vs. teams outscored by 0.5 or more runs/game the last two seasons. (Team's Record) Plus, the Reds are 2-13 playing with triple revenge. 

T.Skaggs against A. Cashner is a mismatch for starters and the Halos are 18-3 vs. teams outscored by one or more runs a game on the season. 

This is strictly a matter of not trusting J. Teheran and the Braves bullpen, especially lately. M. Mikolas is capable of slowing Atlanta's offense and the Cardinals have won nine last 12 against the Braves. 

With two of the best teams in baseball having two of the best offenses in the sport, the total in the series opener has been bumped from 9 to 9.5. Here is why this looks like wrong way action to me. The Yankees this month are 22-4 UNDER and are facing Eduardo Rodriguez (9-2, 3.86), who is 11-1 UNDER as a road underdog of +100 or higher and 8-2 UNDER against the Pinstripes. C.C. Sabathia will toe the rubber first for New York and he is 17-7 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5 since last year and is 26-14 UNDER versus Boston.

A. Nola does not win every time (Phillies 11-5 this season), it just seems like it. At home, Nola and the Phillies are a perfect 7-0 this season. The Washington bats are cold in averaging 2.5 RPG in their last seven outings and they have been shutout three times. T. Roark until recently was not pitching poorly, but he has been of late with an ERA over 8 in his past three starts. With Philly 16-4 vs. a NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better, let's take the home team. 

I know this seems boring, but I'm on Seattle again. Baltimore had the game won and still found a way to lose it last night. That's what bad teams do and today they are starting a no-name pitcher and the Mariners are expected to get some very good swings against him. The M's are 12-4 in M. Leake starts, while the O's are 6-22 after three or more consecutive losses this season. 

After years of being an automatic pick for baseball bettors, after two injury-plagued seasons and being on a weaker squad, Madison Bumgarner (1-2, 3.20) is no longer revered. He and Giants opened as -160 home faves and now are hanging out in the minus low 140's as they prepare to face Colorado. Mad Bum will face a pretty good lefty in Kyle Freeland (7-6, 3.55) and he's only 5-16 the last two seasons. (Giants record) This is not all Bumgarner's doing since San Francisco has only averaged 2.8 RPG in his starts in this period. With the Rockies on a three-game slide and San Fran winners of six of seven, I'll take my chances with the home team. 

St. Louis is tearing up Cleveland and are playing very well. J. Flaherty is pitching well and the Cards offense is white hot. I'll back the Cards with Indians just 13-19 against winning teams this season. 

I remember hearing about Andrew Heaney (4-5, 3.43) when he came to the Angels in 2015 from Miami. Though he didn't throw as hard as reported, he had smooth, repeatable delivery. After a couple of injury-filled seasons, it's good to see him pitching to his potential. However, I cannot justify him and the Angels dropping from +150 to +120 underdogs at Boston tonight. I'm well aware Rick Porcello has a 5.51 ERA against the Halos and the team's he pitched for have lost 11 of their past 15 against them. Still, Anaheim has lost seven of 10 and had been outscored 36-4 in four beat-downs against Boston. And Heaney and the Angels are 1-5 on the road this year. 

Certain baseball bettors are a glutton for punishment evidently. For a third straight day, they have lowered Seattle as a favorite, this time from -125 to a Pick (-105) against bumbling Baltimore. As stated many times here, I think Wade LeBlanc (3-0, 3.26) is pitching way over his head and was finally exposed at Boston last week (11 hits and 6 runs). Nevertheless, given the choice between LeBlanc and Orioles starter Alex Cobb (2-9, 6.56), the former draws my approval. Maybe the Birds finally win, but I cannot back a team that is 1-15 after scoring three runs or less in three straight games. 

Some influential bettors are ignoring certain facts and focusing on the peripherals. Seattle has lost six of eight and their best pitcher James Paxton (6-2, 3.72), has 7.54 ERA in his past three starts. Baltimore is the worst team in the AL, but their starting pitching choice Kevin Gausman (3-6, 4.38) has a 3.04 ERA in four starts against the Mariners. The M's have slid from -165 to -140, yet, how do you overlook the Birds are 5-23 after scoring three runs or less in two straight games and Gausman being 4-18 as an underdog of +100 to +150? (Orioles record) 

After losing the first two contests of their homestand, Cleveland frolicked the rest of the way and starts their road excursion on a seven-game winning streak. The Indians have punished the Twins, White Sox and Tigers in this stretch, outscoring them 52-8! #Ouch

Mike Clevinger (6-2, 3.00 ERA) will be the Indians choice for the series opener and he's pitched extremely well in his past three starts. The right-hander has thrown at least into the seventh inning in this trio of starts, allowing 14 hits and just four runs in 21.1 innings. Clevinger has fanned 26 and walked only six in this period. On the road this season, the 27-year old has 2.27 ERA and opposing batters are hitting just .185 against him when playing in their own park.

With Michael Wacha on the DL, manager Mike Matheny give the ball to John Gant (1-2, 4.39), who will make his fourth spot start of the year. Both bullpens are in the bottom third of baseball in ERA, but Cleveland has proven to be better at saving games (66.6% vs. 58%).

 There is little reason to believe Cleveland's offense cannot stay hot against Gant and Cards bullpen. Clevinger has a 1.69 ERA of late and St. Louis is  0-7 in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better. Take the Tribe. 

Texas might have been shutout yesterday, but they should score some runs against the Padres J. Lucchesi. C. Hamels has been in very good form of late and faces a San Diego lineup scoring 3.5 RPG against lefties. Over the last two years, the Friars are 2-16 in road games vs. a starting pitcher who gives up one or more HR's a start.

A nice step down in class for Seattle after a rough week. As many of you know, I'm no fan of A. Cashner and while King Felix is no longer the king, the Mariners are the better team and are 21-8 when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. 

I definitely prefer the pitching matchup overall, plus, Sunday NL road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 like the Cardinals, hitting .255 or lower, against a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.33 or less, are a miserable 11-51 since 2014. 

In winning six of seven, the A's offense has scored 6.1 RPG. They are going up against a White Sox bunch that continues to struggle and is 5-21 having lost four of their last five games this season. 

Cleveland has allowed six runs in their last five games and T. Bauer has been excellent all year long. With the Indians 21-6 at home against Detroit, their offense on fire and averaging 5.2 RPG against LH starters, I'll step up and say the Tribe win by at least three runs. 

I have been a fan of S. Newcombe all year and when his team is off a loss by two or less runs this season, they have won by 2.8 RPG the next time out in 11 games. Baltimore, well you know how bad they are. 

With last place Cincinnati having won four in a row and seven of nine, enough bettors are giving them a chance in Game 2 of their series with the Cubs. The Reds have been lowered from +145 to +130. This might not be the best decision on the side play with Jose Quintana (6-5, 4.06 ERA) having a 2.70 ERA versus Cincy and Chicago 3-0 against them. Though Cincinnati's Luis Castillo (4-8) has thrown well twice against the Cubs, his velocity is down and his ERA is 5.77 compared to last year's 3.12.