Niagara Wins Outright!

It is irrefutable that Sacramento is the worst team in basketball, and for tonight, with Marc Gasol expected to be back in the lineup for the Grizzlies, the Kings are actually overpriced by a point and a half according to my numbers. When the teams met on New year’s Eve, the Grizzlies won by 18 points in Sacramento, hitting 14 of 30 three point shots. Now Memphis doesn’t typically shoot that well and wouldn’t be expected to again this evening, but what I do expect from them is to continue their strong run of defensive efforts. They have held six of their L9 opponents to 43% or less from the floor. The Kings have lost six straight games and don’t figure to get it turned around against a stout defensive team. No way. I’ll lay the points with Memphis.

I was on St. Bonnie's early but there defense has gone the way of - The Situation - and is in real trouble in allowing over 78 PPG in their last five outings. Davidson can exploit this at home and has held last four opponents to under 40 percent shooting. 

All my power ratings have Indiana winning outright. Portland is 3-11 ATS as home favorite and the Pacers are 13-3 ATS away when playing with two day's rest. Add in home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Blazers, after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games, playing six or more games in 10 days are 6-26 ATS, I love Indy!

Hard to ever pass a chance to bet against Arizona and Nashville is 18-4 at home off a home win. 

Not that impressed with how Wake Forest plays. They make 9 three's a game but give up 10, which makes no sense. N.C. State is one click away from shooting 50% at home and should be thinking about payback, having lost by 30 in last meeting. 

Both Furman and E. Tenn. State have many positives. Two things having me backing the Paladins. Furman averages three more 3-balls a game and the home team has won seven straight and is 6-1 ATS. 

Clippers really playing well and they are 11-3 ATS after covering the spread in two or more games this season. Also, Denver just 2-6 SU with no rest, losing by 5.4 PPG.

Really like Seton Hall, but their might not be a team that shoots better at home than Creighton and they are 6-0 ATS after not covering the spread. 

Quick turnaround after 18-point loss at Miami. It is also not unusual for teams like the Heat to suffer letdown after long winning streak ends.

I seldom pass up a chance to take the Purple Aces at home at -4 or less or as underdog. This is one of those games. 

Dayton has shot over 62 percent in consecutive games. Back to earth for Flyers and St. Joe's club off two road losses. 

The largest totals move in college buckets is this ACC affair, where the number flew from 123 to 127. The low total was related to Pittsburgh's offense, which has averaged 55.4 PPG in past five outings. However, the Panthers defense has allowed 76.6 PPG in that span and the Syracuse offense at home is capable of reaching that figure and is 11-3 OVER off two OVER's. 

Boston has two ways to win and cover, their defense or taking advantage of New Orleans defense. Though the total of 215 seems tailored to the Pelicans, the C's are 8-1 ATS when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season. Celtics by 7. 

Wisconsin cannot score, that is why they are 1-6 SU and ATS on the road. Purdue is 11-0 and 7-3 ATS at home and 12-3 and 11-4 ATS hosting the Badgers. Boilers by 18. 

I will stick with the hot team. Miami has won seven straight and has shown they know how to play in this role with 10-1 ATS record  after five or more wins the last two seasons. In addition, the Heat are 6-2 SU & ATS in last eight underdog roles and win this contest!

USC averages over 80 PPG and this season when Utah allows 77 or more points, they are 0-6 SU and ATS. 

Minutemen are betting shooting team, play better defense and have knocked off St. Joe's three straight times. UMass also 6-0 ATS after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers.

Off a couple of poor defensive performances, look for the Knicks to be ready to play and improve on 15-8 SU and ATS record over New Orleans.

Sometimes you can catch yourself, as any sports bettor does, overreacting to something that just happened. After watching Blake Bortles play like, well, Blake Bortles, it would be easy to say - He stinks - and want to go against Jacksonville in a big way. Yet in Bortles case, we have history. Other than a few periods of time this season, the former Central Florida product was again a pedestrian signal caller. There was a strong reason why Tom Coughlin and coach Doug Marrone built this team around defense and running game. This was Bortles third straight rough outing and having to play on the road at Pittsburgh, if is very difficult to imagine Jacksonville manufacturing many points. The Steelers on the other hand have a hot Ben Roethlisberger and the running game to take on Jaguars No. 21 run defense. Pittsburgh wins and covers 24-13. 

Another Vegas winner!

Boise State by 6

Tennessee Tech loses by 1. Covers

LSU by 7

The Titans only shot to beat the Patriots is slowing their running game, forcing Tom Brady to make quicker than preferred decisions when passing and running the football. Anything else will lead to certain defeat for Tennessee. Accomplishing all three of those elements is a HUGE task on the road for the Titans. Tennessee might be able to do a couple things on their list, which could slow down the New England offense. One can assume the Patriots probably feel confident they can contain Marcus Mariota's offense and they do not need a ton of points to quell Tennessee. That is why I expect a workman-like effort from the Brady Bunch and they win going away, 28-16, making the UNDER the correct call. 

USA by 4

Kentucky by 6.

W&M by 6

Clemson wins by 8

Dukes win by 5

Play Over, this ends in 150's.

Houston has gotten used to playing without Harden and several players are stepping up. In addition, home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Suns, being outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game, after scoring 105 points or more are 4-13 ATS in next game. 

Charlotte just shot over 51% in losing to Dallas. They have not made over 47% of shot attempts in consecutive games in nearly two months. Utah is no prize, but home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Hornets, after a game where they failed to cover the spread, playing only their second game in seven days are miserable 8-33 ATS. 

San Diego was originally two-point favorite. SDU is sharp 15-3 ATS as road underdog. 

More veteran team that shoots the ball quite well at home and averages three more 3's. Austin Peay just 5-14 (4-10 ATS) at Tennessee Tech. 

I just don't know how you trust Cleveland as a favorite. There defense is awful and Toronto has been playing very good basketball. Just trying LeBron is not good enough. Cavs 3-12 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more.

Good team and well coached. Denver is 1-7 and 2-5 ATS on the road, like usual. 

Towson is better shooting team, has superior defense and hits the glass with more authority. 

Poor showing by OKC last night. I say they bounce back and T-Wolves 0-8 ATS in home games after scoring 120 points or more the last 3 seasons. 

Drake might be in the first place in the MVC and on a five-game winning streak, but those with the money say that stops tonight at Valparaiso. The Bulldogs were taken from +3 to +5 in spite of Valpo being losers of  seven of nine (3-6 ATS). Drake is 6-4 ATS on the road this season and averages 10 three-pointers a game (8 on the road), which has helped them considerably. This Valpo bunch is not as good as others of the past, but I still like their strong home court edge and I'll back their defense to limit Drake and find a way to win and cover.

Brooklyn has covered six straight and is off poor shooting game and faces ordinary Pistons defense. Plus this System of mine; Play On January home teams when the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN), off a loss against a division rival. (24-5 ATS, 82.8%, L5Y)

You will not find any neon signs or heavy promotions concerning LaSalle (7-9, 7-6-2 ATS) at Massachusetts (8-8, 7-6 ATS) tonight in A-10 action. This is a pair of average clubs and their statistics seem to bear that out.

The Explorers average 71 points a game and only convert 42.7 percent of shot attempts. LaSalle welcomed backed five starters, but an overly difficult schedule has held them back from a better record and likely lower shooting stats. Nevertheless, they are 1.5-point road favorites.

Massachusetts scores virtually the same amount as tonight's opponent at 71.1 PPG, though their accuracy is better at 45.3 percent.

Why I like UMass is for the following reasons. First, with such a short number, LaSalle is 2-7 SU away from Philly and the Minutemen are 7-2 SU at home. Along this line of thinking, UMass is 10-5 (9-6 ATS) when hosting the Explorers over the years. Lastly, in home/road differentials, Massachusetts converts three more made 3's a contest, which is the difference in the outcome. 

Davidson averages 5 more three's per game than George Washington and home/road is even greater. 

All three sets of numbers I have call for Boise State to win. Broncos also  9-2 ATS versus teams  outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game.

Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Butler, in a game two teams  outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG, after allowing 75 points or more in three straight games are 17-51 ATS. Also in home/road scenario, Creighton average six more 3's per contest. 

Backing home/road differentials. Wisconsin 1-5 SU and ATS, Cornhuskers 8-0 and 6-1 ATS in Lincoln.

Cavaliers lockdown Syracuse offense (which is not hard) and win going away by at least 15. 

Beat team in hockey is 12-0 after two or more Over's this season. 

Caps 9-2 off an home win scoring 4 or more goals this season. 

Better shooting team in all phases, stronger rebounding team and the play better defense. The Chips should win outright.

Not that there is a good matchup for Buffalo, but Jacksonville really looks to be a poor one. The Bills even with LeSean McCoy only has scored 17.8 points per game on the road this season. Match that up against a Jaguars defense that was second in fewest yards allowed and fewest points conceded. Next, have McCoy at less than 100 percent or not playing at all, that leaves Tyrod Taylor having to survive the NFL's No.2 sack defense, who was also second in interceptions. Next up, let's look at how the Bills are going to stop the Jaguars offense. Though they faltered a bit at the end of the season, Jacksonville was still the league's top rushing offense. They will be mightily determined to play - ground and pound - against Buffalo, who finished 29th in run defense. Make it the Jags 27-10.

BYU wins by 10

COLORADO is 12-0 as a home underdog of +100 to +150 this season. 

Idaho State by 12

The Atlanta Falcons are out to defend their NFC title and how they might accomplish it will be quite different. Last season Atlanta was the top scoring team in the NFL at 33.8 PPG. This season, for a variety of reasons, much has changed and they are down to 22.1 PPG. Normally, this would keep most teams out of the playoffs, but the Falcons defensive improvement has kept them afloat, going from 25.4 to 19.7 PPG allowed. To knock off Los Angeles, the Atlanta defense has to slow the new No.1 scoring offense in the Rams and take away RB Todd Gurley. For the first time in 19 years, Atlanta was in the Top 10 in total and scoring defense and was 7-1 SU when holding opponent under 100 yards on the ground. The Dirty Birds are 5-3 SU on the road and the Rams are only 3-4 SU at home, with the score differentials -1 to +4. Add in Atlanta having kicker edge with Zuerlein out, this becomes tight contest. 

Boise State wins by 5

TAMPA BAY is 16-3 having won 2 of their last 3 games this season. 

Washington is playing better, but is -2.2 in point differential on the road. Memphis has terrible spread record at home, but that is mostly as faves and they are -2.7 point differential at home and playing with two days' rest. 

In reading about Milwaukee, all the players are saying is they should have won at Toronto four days ago. Bucks get there revenge at home. 

I think the Celtics are starting to churn again, especially on offense. The C's take advantage of weak T-Wolves defense and they average four more 3's per game. 

Two West Coast Wise Guys called me and told me to go "Deep" on the Badgers. I had them on list as potential play, but don't feel that strongly. They do and I trust them.

UNC- Wilmington is 1-9 ATS this season and two sets of my power ratings have Towson winning by 14 or 15. 

W&M has +6 edge in three-pointers made against Delaware and the Blue Hens allow foes to make better than 40% behind arc. 

Miami has superior quickness and speed and a huge in-game coaching edge.

The Broncos are a really good MWC club and New Mexico is scuffling on the road. With line now under 10, great value. 

For decades really, Dayton has enjoyed one the best home court advantages. That did not always relate to spread results, but it certainly mattered in the win/loss column. The Flyers only have one starter back from a year ago and now have a mediocre coach in Anthony Grant. Nonetheless, they are still being give the benefit of the doubt versus a quality St. Bonaventure bunch who is a bit underrated from my perspective. Dayton has sunk from +4 to +1.5. For my money, this adds value on the Bonnies, who are 9-0 ATS in away games after scoring 85 points or more the last three seasons. 

Despite the fact Da Bulls are 13-2 ATS in their past 15 games, hoops bettors have more confidence in Toronto and pushed them from -3.5 to -5.5. The Raptors have won 14 of 17 (10-7 ATS) and do have the better team. However, Chicago is 9-1 ATS playing into double revenge and is 8-1 ATS recently versus the Purple Dinosaurs, which includes 4-0 SU and ATS on the south side of Chi-Town.

The state school from South Dakota has an appropriate nickname for they prefer to play in the Jackrabbits. They like to get up and down the floor and the Jackrabbits average 85.7 points a game and their contests average about 125 total shots. Their Summit League rivals to the north are known as the Bison, and they play a more deliberate style. North Dakota State averages 73.8 PPG on 55 attempts. Both clubs are quite accurate from the field at around 48 percent, but N.D. State is the better defensive unit, holding foes to 40.4 percent. With the Bison the better defensive club and most likely able to control the tempo, they have my attention. Plus, I was holding back one fact, North Dakota State is 11-1 SU when hosting their rivals. 

Tulsa is 16-6 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record and my Power Ratings have them winning by 8.

Only one true road game for Arkansas this season (lost by 26 @ Houston), and at Miss. State, the Hogs are 5-13 and 4-13-1 ATS. 

Even in road/home scenario, the Tribe averages three more made 3's a game than James Madison which is the difference. And they are  -0 ATS after a game where they made 50% of their three-point shots or better.

After terrible start, Hawkeyes have found identity and are 13-3 ATS at home versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game. 

The third installment of this playoff battle has a completely different storylines than the previous two. Alabama was thought to have a nearly perfect team, but that was until they went 2-5 ATS down the stretch, and were decidedly beaten by Auburn. The old "Give Nick Saban a month to prepare" was dispelled by Clemson last year in the title game (and largely the year prior). The Crimson Tide might have revenge, but the Tigers want back-to-back titles like Bama did in 2011-12.

For my money, Saban is the greatest college football coach ever, but eventually the tide changes (pun intended) and Dabo Sweeney has a team which has no fear of Bama. Check out these numbers, the underdog in Clemson's last 15 bowl games is 14-1 ATS, which includes Swinney being 7-0 ATS in that role. Finally, Swinney's teams are 9-1 SU after the regular season ends since 2012 and are underdogs as the top seed! Clemson outright!

I understand Baker Mayfield is a great quarterback and his team is loaded offensively. But this Georgia team is loaded in all facets. The Bulldogs will keep Mayfield off the field with their potent running game that averages 264 YPG, at 5.8 YPC. If Georgia runs as expected, Mayfield is standing on the sidelines. And this can happen as four different teams have rushed for over 200 yards against the Sooners. While I think Oklahoma is dangerous, Georgia is just better, the Dawgs by 7. 

Strong Leans - South Carolina, Notre Dame, Tigers/Knights OVER 67

This game has been following me around since the bowl matchups were made on Dec. 3rd. Almost every handicapper I know, (there are exceptions) has been on UCF and I understood why. And it was for the usual reasons, Auburn might be flat or uninterested and Central Florida will want to win for their coach, themselves and make history for being unbeaten. Saturday convinced me what the right choice was. If Iowa State could slow Memphis offense down, which was 2nd best scoring team in the country, why can't a top defense like Auburn contain UCF? The Tigers will have a much stronger pass rush and while I like the Knights QB, he's never seen a D-Line or secondary like this. If USF and Memphis can score 42 or more at UCF, why can't Auburn score in the upper 40's? I am done for now handicapping games in which a team could be flat if they have had more than three weeks to prepare. In a world of everything being instant, why young players hang on to previous disappointment? Bigger, faster, stronger Auburn wins 48-34. 

Buffalo is a long shot to make the AFC playoffs, but they still have chance with a victory. For this to happen, the Bills will need to score more than season average of 18.7 points per game. And I think they will against Miami. If you drop nine points they gave up to Denver, in the Dolphins other nine most recent games they have allowed over 30 PPG. Not every team with motivation wins, however, then the line is +3 to -3 and the home team (Miami) off one or more Under's and on the season is outscored by 5 or more points per game in the first half, in last 76 contests, they have lost by 5.9 PPG. Buffalo by 7.

There is a lot on the line for Carolina and Atlanta conflict. The Falcons are back in the postseason with a victory and very likely out if they falter. The Panthers will at least be a wild card team and with a triumph and good fortune, they might even have a home playoff game next weekend. This leads me to believe defense and careful football will rule the day. Atlanta's offense has not been the same as last year and they are 11-2 UNDER after two or more losses against the spread and 8-0 UNDER off four or more consecutive Under's. With the total at 45, I found the Panthers average score is 42 total points in away games and just below 40 points in NFC South confrontations. No problem backing the UNDER.

When I first thought about this pick, I was squeamish, wondering if I was making the right choice. Mississippi State not having QB Nick Fitzgerald is a big deal, but that offensive line could push Louisville around for 60 minutes. Then I realized that Lamar Jackson will want to go out in style and if this turns into a high scoring contest as expected, that is a decided advantage for the Cardinals, with the Bulldogs not really capable of playing at a frenetic pace. This to me is where the game changes and Jackson will be the difference-maker and the 'Ville builds on three-game winning streak and wins 38-28.

After being thrashed by Duke in Northwestern's second game, the Wildcats looked like one of the most overrated teams this season and were sitting at 2-3 after Penn State shellacking. Then the squad we expected to see showed up and they been gathering momentum ever sense. Northwestern is on 7-0 SU and ATS tear, playing tremendous run defense and running the pigskin down the opponents throats. Kentucky might be getting seven points, but it will not be enough and in their past two contests against stellar rushing teams, they have been ground up for 727 yards. When 'Cats find their stride they can be hard to stop and they are 11-3 ATS away after two or more spread winners. Northwestern by 13 or more.

After losing three in a row in the middle of the season, the Wake Forest offense got white hot and over a four-game stretch was 3-1 and 4-0 ATS and fabulous in averaging 43.2 PPG. I do not see Texas A&M being particularly inspired in this contest, with their future ahead of them with Jimbo Fisher as head coach. Toss in the Demon Deacons are 7-0 ATS in December bowl games, I like them by a touchdown or more. 

In spite of the Milwaukee being 11-0 OVER this month, this total slide two points to 212. The Bucks are simply below average defensively, last in three-point field goal percentage and are poorly coached by Jason Kidd. With the T-Wolves 14-5 OVER when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season. I'll stick with the OVER.

Play On home favorites of -200 or higher like TAMPA BAY off two or more consecutive home wins, with a winning record in the first half of the season. In the last five years these teams are incredible 30-2, 93.7%.

Has Oklahoma City turned a corner? It seems that way, winners of five straight and seven of eight. Basketball bettors now have enough faith in them to take OKC from -2.5 to -4 against visiting Toronto. The Raptors have not exactly been paupers, with a 14-2 record (11-5 ATS) going back 33 days. This should be high quality contest and I'll back the Purple Dinosaurs off their worst shooting game of the season tonight (33.7%).

On FS1 at 6:30 Eastern, Butler (10-3, 7-5 ATS) opens Big East action against Georgetown (10-1, 3-5 ATS). The Bulldogs have played a far more challenging schedule and are a four-point favorite. Butler is considered a middle of the road team in the Big East, while Georgetown is thought be starting over under first-year coach Patrick Ewing. Though Georgetown has not faced as many difficult foes, the changes in this team include a group taking better shots and making them (49.4%). On defense, the overall intensity has picked up in holding opponents to 38 percent shooting and Ewing's biggest coaching contribution, the Hoyas are +9 in rebounding. Big East play could wear down the Hoyas, but for a conference opener at home, the situation appears to help Georgetown and all three of Butler's losses have occurred when not playing at home. 

The Eagles hit the Bronx on an 8-0-1 ATS streak, and with SU wins in five of their last six, including routs of Virginia, Florida State and Syracuse. The Boston College defense has allowed 17 points or fewer in five consecutive games, and held three opponents to 10 or fewer points. B.C. also has averaged 290 yards per game rushing the back end of the season. Iowa has lost five straight bowl games and gave up over 200 yards on the ground to three good running teams, which Boston College fits. The clincher, ACC-Big Ten bowl underdogs are incredible 17-1-1 ATS when these two conferences meet. 

Just 11 days ago Milwaukee gave a poor effort in loss to Chicago at home. I expect a much more focused Bucks team this time around, especially on the defensive end when they allowed Chicago to score 115 points. Two of my sets of numbers have Milwaukee winning by 9 or 10 points, which sounds right to me. 

UtahWins and Covers Byowning time of possession and not making mistakes. Utah normally does a good job in holding on to the pigskin at 32:01 minutes a game. If they play wisely, they could do even more than that against West Virginia, who was only at 27:44 T.O.P. For Utah that would mean running the ball and looking to wear down the Mountaineers defense as the game progresses. The Utes were often very accommodating to the opposition, averaging two turnovers a game. The Utah defense had decent numbers, permitting 23.9 points a game and 353 yards. If West Virginia had Grier and RB Justin Crawford (no-show because of NFL draft), there would be greater concern about the Utes defense, since they struggled against teams that had speed and ability to manufacture points with expediency. Utah will have the quarterback edge with a healthy Tyler Huntley and as long as he limits mistakes, the Utes should be in good shape. In addition, Utes coach Kyle Whittingham knows a thing or two about bowl game preparation, with an astonishing 10-1 SU (8-3 ATS) record. Lastly, Play Against teams like the 'Teers rushing for 4.3 to 4.8 YPR, against an average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games.  Clubs like West Virginia are abysmal 4-26 ATS. 

The Knicks are on a nice little 5-2 SU and ATS run while the Sixers are sinking fast on a 1-9 SU and ATS sojourn. Take those numbers and add in New York is 15-5 SU and ATS at home, winning by 7 PPG at MSG, that sounds about right, the Knickerbockers by 7.

Houston had some ups and downs in Major Applewhite's first year at the helm, losing three times in games they had late leads or were unfocused against beatable competition. Make no mistake, the Cougars have ability with the right mindset. No such problems at Fresno State as Jeff Tedford walked right and fixed the attitude of the players and program and they responded immediately and could have 10-win season after going 1-11. The Bulldogs defense was bullish and is ninth in points allowed at 17.2 PPG. This group runs to the ball and gang tackles with purpose. The offense was what you saw from Tedford at Cal, as they run fairly effectively and throw the ball the same and play with real passion. I will back the more stable Fresno State team to finish 11-2 ATS.

Kansas City has righted the ship and wraps up another AFC West title with a victory over Miami. What we are seeing from the Chiefs is not new when it comes to complete turnarounds. This year's 5-0 start, followed by 1-6 downturn, leading to winning their last two games has more or less been done before by K.C. In 2015, Kansas City won opener and proceeded to drop five in a row. Next, like magic, the Chiefs for some reason got blazing hot and reeled off 10 consecutive wins, including one in the playoffs. Though 10 points might sound like a lot for Kansas City to give to Miami, the Chiefs defense can rattle Jay Cutler in miscues. Additionally, the offense is back to scoring almost 30 PPG in past three outings. The Chiefs continue winning ways with 31-14 victory.

It has been a long year for Denver, but a third consecutive victory would remove some the sting of a tough season. In the Broncos past two wins, we see what they do best. Denver is a run-first offense, which sets up play-action passing and the defense can stifle opposing teams if not placed in terrible field position series after series. Washington hopes - win one, lose two - trend does not continue after beating Arizona. The Redskins were fortunate to come away with the 'W', but as we as NFL bettors understand, any win is a good one. If Washington cannot do better 50 yards rushing, like they have averaged in last three outings, the Skins assuredly will fall to defeat against Denver. Broncos outright!

The Los Angeles Chargers after three strong defensive showing were torched for 30 points against Kansas City and basically lost their chance to win the AFC West. It did not help the Chargers that the offense committed four turnovers, placing them frequently in terrible field position. The Bolts defense should return to normal against a feeble Jets offense that is not the same without Josh McCown. Carson's finest have enjoyed a few shining moments on offense this season, however, 22.2 PPG in hardly dynamic. I'll back the lower score with the Chargers 8-2 UNDER versus AFC competition. 

Utah just lost by 28 at OKC three days ago. Great turnaround spot and Utah 12-5 SU and ATS at home while Thunder 4-12 ATS on the road.

Miami lost another starter last night and is coming off shooting 63%. Good spot for New Orleans who is much stronger offensively.

UCLA is not handled full court pressure and Kentucky can convert quickly off mistakes.