My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Min Twins at 7:10 ET.

The Cleveland Indians entered the 2019 season having won THREE straight AL Central titles but their 93 wins left them EIGHT games back of the 101-61 Minnesota Twins (first 100-win season for the Twins since 1965). The two AL Central rivals continue their four-game series in Minnesota on Saturday, after the Indians won 2-0 on Thursday, before the Twins rebounded with a 4-1 win last night.

The 5-3 Indians will send Carlos Carrasco (1-0, 3.00 ERA) to the mound, while the 5-2 Twins counter with Kenta Maeda (1-0, 3.60 ERA). Carrasco and the Indians beat KC 9-2  this past Sunday, as Carrasco won his first start in 423 days! Carrasco took the mound back on May 30, 2019 against the Chicago White Sox but days later was diagnosed with chronic myeloid leukemia, a blood disorder that threatened his life. He spent the next three months battling leukemia before returning in September to pitch out of the bullpen. He made 11 appearances, allowing 18 hits and 11 ERs in 15 innings (6.60 ERA). However, the 18-game winner in 2017 looked like his old dominant self in Sunday's victory. He allowed two runs and five hits before he was lifted after allowing a leadoff double in the seventh. Carrasco retired the first 10 Royals he faced and finished with 10m Ks!

Maeda has something to prove in 2020 as well, although it's hard to match the dramatic return of Carrasco. Maeda had solid success as a starter in his first two seasons with the Dodgers (won 29 games), but was moved to the bullpen last season. Note that he excelled in relief during last year's run to the World Series. It should be noted that only former teammate Kenley Jansen has made more postseason appearances over the last four seasons and Washington closer Sean Doolittle is the only pitcher with more than 10 postseason games to have a better ERA than Maeda's bullpen ERA of 1.64. However, Maeda made it clear in an interview with the Minneapolis Star Tribune prior to the season that he prefers a starting role. He made a solid impression in his Twins debut last Sunday at Chicago, when he struck out six White Sox hitters and allowed two runs in five innings during a 14-2 victory.

Carrasco's comeback has everyone rooting for him but I'm not one of them in tonight's contest. Shutting down the Royals, one of four MLB teams to lose 100-plus games in 2019 is one thing, shutting down the Twins is another. Minnesota's lineup scored the second-highest run total in the majors (939) in 2019, while leading all teams in HRs (307 represented a major league record!) and RBI. Carrasco is 7-10 with a 4.10 ERA in 26 career appearances (21 starts / team is 8-13) against Minnesota, including 4-4 with a 4.29 ERA in 13 appearances and 10 starts at Target Field. Maeda faces the Indians for the first time in his career and makes his Target Field debut on Saturday night. I'll root for Carrasco some OTHER time!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Month is on the Col Rockies at 8:10 ET.

Taking the mound in the opener of this three-game series will be San Diego's Garrett Richards (0-0, 0.00 ERA) and Colorado's Jon Gray (0-0, 1.93 ERA). Richards spent his first eight seasons with the Los Angeles Angels (45-39 with a 3.54 ERA over 170 appearances, including 115 starts), before San Diego signed him to a two-year deal before the 2019 season. It's more than fair to call the move a risk for the Padres, as Richards' 2018 season was cut short due to Tommy John surgery. In fact, He didn't pitch until late in 2019, making three starts (0-1 with a ERA / team was 1-2). Richards pitched five shutout innings, allowing just one hit and three walks with six strikeouts in San Diego's 4-3 loss to Arizona last Sunday. "It's just fun,'' Richards told FS San Diego. "I’m having fun playing baseball again. It’s not rehab anymore. It feels good to be back out there and pitching pain-free.” Richards will be facing Colorado for the first time in his career. 

In contrast, Gray is VERY familiar with the Padres, as he's 10-4 with a 2.97 ERA. He has 139 strikeouts in 115.1 innings covering 20 games (19 starts). Unlike most Colorado pitchers, Gray is one of the few who has thrived in the thin air of Coors Field. He was 6-2, with a 3.46 ERA in 13 games (12 starts / Rockies went 8-4) last season. Colorado has been the worst road team in MLB since 2010 but dominated Texas and Oakland with a National League-best 1.84 ERA (Note: Colorado's team ERA was an NL-worst 5.56 mark last season, as only Baltimore (5.59) had a higher ERA in all of MLB.

Yes, there won't be any fans in the stands for Colorado's home opener BUT the Rockies have won FOUR consecutive season series vs the Padres, including 24-13 at Coors Field during that span. Colorado has won FOUR straight since losing its season-opener 1-0 at Texas, outscoring opponents 21-9. Make it FIVE straight wins, tonight!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Atl Braves at 7:10 ET.

Tampa Bay took both games against the Braves at Tropicana Field (Mon & Tue) but as the teams switched venues to SunTrust Park on Wednesday, the Braves beat the Rays 7-4.  Atlanta's All-Star 1B Freddie Freeman, who entered Wednesday’s home opener 2-for-14 on the season, went 4-for-5 with a double, HR, and three RBI. The loss dropped the Rays to 4-2, while the Braves evened their record at 3-3 with the win.

The teams play the final contest of this four-game set on Thursday, as Ryan Yarbrough (0-0, 0.00 ERA) takes the mound for Tampa Bay and Max Fried (0-0, 3.60 ERA) gets the ball for Atlanta. Yarbrough made 28 appearances last season (14 starts), going 11-6 with a 4.13 ERA. He threw 5.1 scoreless innings last Saturday against Toronto, as the Rays won 4-1 (Yarbrough settled for a no-decision). He's now made NINE consecutive stars without earning a win (Rays are 5-4 in those games). Fried went 17-6 in 2019 (first season as a full-time starter), as he finished second in the NL with 17 wins. His first outing of 2016 was last Saturday at the Mets, when he surrendered two runs on two hits with two walks and five strikeouts in five innings (note: he didn't surrender a hit until the fifth inning and the Braves won, 5-3).

Most feel as if the Rays have one of MLB's best bullpens and the team's relievers had pitched to a 2.70 ERA across 26.2 innings in the first five games of 2020, but four Tampa relievers allowed  five runs (four earned) on six hits in just three innings last night.Fried finished 9-3 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 15 home starts in 2019 (Braves were 11-4), and after the All-Star break pitched to a 3.63 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while going 8-2 across 13 appearances (12 starts / Braves were 10-2). Fried gives Atlanta the edge here at home, where the Braves went 50-31 in 2019.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Mets at 7:07 ET.

The Red Sox vie for a split of a four-game, home-and-home set at the Mets on Thursday night, sending Martín Pérez (0-1, 7.20 ERA) to the mound to face New York's Steven Matz (0-0, 1.50 ERA). Perez spent his first seven seasons with Texas, going 2-7 with a 6.22 ERA in his final year with the team (2018). He signed with Minnesota in 2019 and made 32 appearances (29 starts), posting a 10-7 record with a 5.12 ERA and owned MLB's highest WHIP among starters at 1.52. Boston signed him as a FA in December and he was thrust  into the No. 2 role in Boston's tattered starting rotation due to injuries and trades, Should it have been a surprise that he struggled his Boston debut? He allowed five runs (four earned) and six hits over five innings to take the loss in Boston's 7-2 Saturday loss to the Orioles.

In contrast, Matz was superb in his season debut against Atlanta last Saturday, although he saw his chance for a win disappear when the bullpen could not hold a one-run lead in the ninth inning. Matz worked six strong innings, allowing only one run on two hits while striking out seven. Matz was awful away from home last season (3-8, 6.62 ERA and .293 BAA) but was terrific at Citi Field, going 8-2 with a 2.31 ERA and .230 BAA.

The Red Sox won last night but NOT because of its pitching staff, as Boston pitchers allowed 15 hits. The Red Sox 'survived' because the Mets went 3-of-14 with RISP, while leaving 11 men on base. The New York bats should 'LOVE' facing Perez and as noted above, Matz is tough to beat at Citi Field.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cin Reds at 6:40 ET.

The Cubs were listed as favorites to win the NL Central (+230) with their longtime rivals the Cards at (+240). However, the Reds (at +230) were listed as co-favorites with the Cubs, despite the fact that Cincinnati last made the postseason back in 2013, having averaged a paltry 69.7 wins per season over that six-year playoff drought. Both teams won their respective season openers but while Chicago sits at 4-1 (in a four-way tie for MLB's best record with Cleveland, San Diego and Tampa Bay), Cincinnati enters tonight's contest on a FOUR-game slide. The Cubs have taken the first two contests of this four-games series, 8-7 (Mon) and 8-5 (Tue).

This contest will be the third of a four-game set, featuring Kyle Hendricks (1-0, 0.00 ERA) and Sonny Gray (1-0, 1.50 ERA) squaring off on the mound. Hendricks has not been nearly the pitcher the last three years that he was in 2016, when he owned the lowest ERA in all of MLB (2.13), won 16 games and started Game 7 of the World Series. He's won a modest 32 games from 2017-19, including 11 last season when he lost 10 games and posted a 3.46 ERA. However, Hendricks sparkled in his 2020 debut, allowing three hits and striking out nine without a walk during a complete-game effort in the Cubs' 3-0 victory over Milwaukee on Friday. Hendricks became the first Cubs pitcher to throw a nine-inning shutout on Opening Day since the 'legendary' Bill Bonham accomplished that feat back in 1974.

Gray put together a pair of 14-win seasons for the Oakland A's in 2014 and '15 (2.91 ERA over those two seasons) but struggled the next four seasons from 2016-18 with the A's and Yanks (going 26-32 with a 4.59 ERA, before revitalizing his career with the Reds in 2019 (11-8, 2.87 ERA in 175.1 innings, allowing just 122 hits while striking out 205). Gray allowed one run on three hits with nine strikeouts over six innings in Cincy's Opening Day 7-1 win over the Tigers.

Hendricks had plenty of trouble with Cincinnati last season, going 1-1 with a 5.16 ERA in four starts (Cubs were 1-3), while Gray was 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA against Chicago over five starts (Reds were 4-1) last year with 37 strikeouts in 30 innings! Reds snap their four-game slide, tonight!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Tex Rangers at 4:05 ET.

The Arizona Diamondbacks went 85-77 last season but that left them 21 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West, as well as four games out of the NL's last wild card spot. Arizona is not expected to end LA's 'hold' on the NL West (Dodgers have won seven straight division titles) but with MLB expanding its postseason field from 10 to 16 teams, the D'backs have to feel like a playoff berth is MORE than realistic. The D'backs opened the season by losing THREE of four at San Diego but after a 4-1 win last night in Texas, have a chance to wrap up their season-opening six-game road trip with a .500 record.

The D-backs scored three unearned runs with two outs in the first inning and went on to beat the Rangers 4-1 on Tuesday. Texas opened its season with a 1-0 win over Colorado but has since lost THREE in a row. The offensively-challenged Ranger managed only three hits Tuesday and have scored just SIX runs in their first four contests. Texas is batting just .174 as a team, including 5-22 (.227) with RISP while leaving 25 runners on base.

Veteran left-hander Madison Bumgarner (0-1, 4.76 ERA) gets the ball in the series finale for the Diamondbacks and the Rangers will counter with righty Lance Lynn (1-0, 0.00 ERA). Bumgarner went 9-9 with a 3.90 ERA in 2019 for the Giants, before signing a five-year, $85 million free agent contract with the Diamondbacks in December. He hardly needs an introduction, as he opened the 2020 season with a 119-92 record (3.13 ERA) in 11 seasons (286 starts) with the Giants. He also owns three World Series rings (2010, 2012 & 2014), along with a World Series MVP in 2014 (two wins and one save / 0.43 ERA, 0.48 WHIP and 17-1 KW ratio). Bumgarner completed five scoreless innings in his club debut Friday before surrendering three runs and retiring just two batters in the sixth to take the loss.

Lance Lynn was a solid part of the St Louis rotation from 2012 to 2017. He missed the entire 2016 season due to injury but in those other five seasons, he won 71 games. He signed a FA deal with Minnesota in 2018 and a flop, going 7-8 with a 5.10 ERA. He was traded during the season to the Yankees and went 3-2 with a 4.14 ERA. Texas took a chance on him in 2019 and he responded by winning a team-high 16 games. He'll be counted on heavily again in 2020's 60-game season, as after Mike Minor (14-10, 3.59 ERA), no other Texas pitcher won more than SEVEN games. Lynn made his first-ever Opening Day start last Friday and was outstanding. He held Colorado to two hits over six scoreless innings with nine Ks (Rangers won 1-0).

Lynn went 10-1 at home last season and is 6-1 (3.38 ERA) in 11 career starts vs the D'backs (teams are 8-3). I had Lynn last Friday and will back him again, here. Bumgarner pitched well in his first start but then imploded (see above). I don't expect much from Texas in 2020 but the team's bats are overdue to break out. This is the first time in club history that the Rangers have scored two runs or fewer in each of the first four games of the season. That changes RIGHT HERE!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Pitching Mismatch of the Month (IL) is on the StL Cardinals at 8:10 ET.

The NL Central race figures to be a 'sprint to the finish line' between the Brewers, Cards, Cubs and Reds in this 60-game season. St Louis finished either 1st or 2nd in the division over an eight-year span from 2009-16, before falling to back-to-back 3rd-place finishes in 2017 and '18. The Cards rebounded in 2019 to capture the NL Central (91-71) and reached the NLCS where they were swept by the red-hot Nationals. Minnesota did not reach the postseason over a six-year span (2011-16), going a woeful 59-103 in 2016. However, the Twins were a wild card team in 2017 (85-77). Minnesota slumped to 78-84 in 2018 but in 2019 went 101-61, earning the franchise its first 100-win season since 1965, a year the Twins lost a seven-game World Series to Sandy Koufax and the LA Dodgers. Minnesota's lineup scored the second-highest run total in the majors (939), while leading all teams in HRs (307 represented a major league record!). Both teams have started 2-1 in 2020 and the Cards open a seven-game road trip Tuesday night in Minnesota The contest will serve as the Twins' home opener, as Minnesota begins an eight-game homestand. The Twins put up 27 runs in taking two of their first three games, while the Cards beat the pathetic Pirates Friday and Saturday, but missed out on a chance to sweep Pittsburgh Pirates with a 5-1 loss on Sunday.

Tuesday's pitching matchup features Carlos Martinez (4-2, 3.17 ERA in 2019) and Homer Bailey (13-9, 4.57 in 2019 with KC & Oak). Martinez posted a 42-27 record with a 3.24 ERA in 94 games (92 starts) from 2015 to 2017 but dealt with shoulder discomfort in 2018 (33 appearances but just 18 starts in going 8-6 with a 3.11 ERA). He last started a game on July 30, 2018, before going on the injured list due to right shoulder discomfort. He spent the rest of the 2018 season, as well as the entire 2019 campaign, in the bullpen to limit the wear and tear on the shoulder. He made 48 appearances in 2019 (zero starts) with 24 saves.

Bailey made 31 starts while splitting the season between Kansas City and Oakland in 2019, marking his most starts since making 32 for the Cincinnati Reds in 2013. His 2019 numbers were not all that impressive but when one takes into consideration that he was coming off a 1-14 record with a 6.09 ERA in 2018 with Cincinnati, his 2019 season could sure be seen as a "bounce-back" season, Clearly, the Twins viewed it as such, signing him to a one-year, $7 million deal in the offseason. 

Minnesota has a 'scary-good' lineup but by all reports, Martinez earned a spot in the rotation with a strong showing in summer camp. He had a procedure done on his right shoulder after the 2019 season and then went on an offseason conditioning regimen focused on regaining a starting role. He was rewarded with the No. 5 spot in the rotation after allowing two hits and one run in four innings in a 6-3 exhibition victory over Kansas City last Wednesday. As for Bailey, a stint in the AL was good to him but a closer look at his 2019 season reveals that he posted a 5.55 ERA in five starts against NL opponents in 2019, including getting ripped for five runs on four hits (including two HRs) over just 1.2 innings at St. Louis on May 22. That effort should NOT come as a surprise, as the Cards have been "too much to handle" for Bailey in his career, as he's gone 6-16 with a 5.80 ERA over 28 lifetime starts against St Louis (team record is even worse, at 6-22). HUGE "pitching edge" here for the Cards.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Was Nationals at 6:05 ET.

The series continues tonight as Tanner Roark (10-10, 4.35 ERA in 2019) squares off against Austin Voth (2-1, 3.30 in 2019). Roark spent his first six seasons in Washington before being traded prior to the 2019 season. He split last year between Cincinnati and Oakland while reaching double digits in victories for the FOURTH time in the last six seasons. He faced the Nationals once in 2019 and was saddled with the loss after giving up four runs over six innings (6.00 ERA). Voth had two stints in the majors last season and put together an impressive September. He posted a 2.35 ERA in five September outings (four starts), finishing the season by holding opponents to a .213 BAA. He has never faced the Blue Jays.

The Nats are looking to reverse a stumbling 1-3 start and the team needs to hit better "when in counts." There was no shame in getting shut down by Cole (last Thursday) but after a 9-2 victory over the Yankees (Sat) in their only win so far, the Nats have gone an abysmal 3-16 (.188) with RISP in back-to-back losses, stranding 17 men on base! The Nats should be eager to face former teammate Roark and as for Voth, I expect a solid effort. He held opponents to a .198 BAA at home.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chi Cubs at 6:40 ET.

The Cubs entered last season off FOUR consecutive playoff appearances in which the team averaged 96.8 wins per season (famously won the World Series in 2016). Chicago looked to be in good shape for a wild card berth with a month left in the 2019 season (led the Brewers by five games) but Chicago lost FIVE of seven to Milwaukee in late August and early September, before completely 'imploding' by losing 10 of its final 12 regular season games (Cubs would finish FIVE games back of the final NL wild card spot). The NL Central 2020 race shaped up as the most wide-open division in MLB (not counting Pittsburgh, naturally), with the Cubs listed at +230 to win the division, the Cards at +240 and Brewers at +350. That trio could be considered "the usual subjects." However, the Reds (at +230) were listed as co-favorites with the Cubs, despite the fact that Cincinnati last made the postseason back in 2013,  having averaged a paltry 69.7 wins per season over that six-year playoff drought.

Monday's pitching matchup features two lefties, veteran Jon Lester of the Cubs (13-10, 4.46 ERA in 2019) and Wade Miley (14-6, 3.98 in 2019 for the Astros) for the Reds. Chicago is hoping that Lester can follow in the footsteps of Kyle Hendricks on Friday and Tyler Chatwood from Sunday, as that duo combined to allow just ONE run over 15 innings in the Cubs' two victories. Lester struggled with his consistency in 2019 while posting his highest ERA since 2012 (see above) and is entering the final season of a six-year, $155 million deal signed with Chicago prior to the 2015 campaign,

Miley won 16 games with Arizona back in 2012 (his first full season in the majors) and much was expected of him. However, little went right for him until he made the most out of pitching for Houston in 2019, going 14-6 with a 3.98 ERA over 33 starts (Houston went in those starts). He turned his 2019 campaign with the Astros into a two-year, $15 million deal with the Reds and makes his first start for his new team, here.

Nick Castellanos hit .321 with 16 HRs, 21 doubles and 36 RBI over 51 games after being dealt to the Cubs last season and turned that into a four-year, $64 million deal from the Reds. He was fairly 'quiet' vs the Tigers (3 for 10 with no HRs and one RBI) but of more concern to Cincy is that Cincinnati's other key offseason pickup, Mike Moustakas (4-for-8 with a HR and four RBI in his first two games as a Red), was placed on the injured list Sunday after waking up ill. It's uncertain if he tested positive for COVID-19 (note: CF Nick Senzel was also held out of Sunday's game?). The 36-year-old Lester has won 190 career games and made at least 31 starts in 12 consecutive seasons. He struggled vs the Reds last season (0-1 with a 4.02 ERA in three starts / team was 1-2) but in 19 career starts vs Cincy, his teams have gone 15-4! "He's prepped and locked in when he steps on the mound," first-year Cubs manager David Ross told the club's official website and my bet is on the vet! Cubs win! Cubs win!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Was Nationals at 6:05 ET.

The Washington Nationals won the franchise's first-ever World Series in 2019 but their title defense is off to a slow start after dropping two of three to American League favorites the New York Yankees. Washington's Achilles heel last season was the bullpen and the relief corps let the team down in the series finale on Sunday, when starter Patrick Corbin exited with a 2-1 lead after 6.1 innings, only to watch Will Harris and Sean Doolittle each allow a run en route to a 3-2 loss. The Nationals lost Juan Soto (.282 / 34 HRs / 110 RBI) before the season opened (positive COVID-19 test) but more importantly, they miss Anthony Rendon (.319 / 34 HRs / 126 RBI) in the middle of the lineup after the MVP candidate left for the LA Angels via free agency.

The Nationals host the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday in the opener of four straight in Washington, with the Blue Jays serving as the home team in the last two contests. The Blue Jays can't play their home games in Canada and are currently waiting as Buffalo's Sahlen Field is getting MLB-ready. The team announced on Sunday that the Blue Jays' first game in Buffalo won't be until August 11 against Miami. Toronto opened the season by beating the TB Rays 6-4 on Friday but followed with back-to-back losses Saturday and Sunday (Rays won each game in their last at-bat).

Monday's pitching matchup features Toronto's Trent Thornton (6-9, 4.84 ERA in 2019) and Washington's Anibal Sanchez (11-8, 3.85 in 2019). Thornton was a rookie last season and made 32 appearances, including 29 starts. He was held to an innings limit late in the season but should be a regular starter in this year's 60-game season. Sanchez is making his first appearance since the Word Series and is looking to continue a late-career resurgence that saw him combine for a 3.39 ERA over 55 games in 2018 and 2019.

One always has to be somewhat worried about Washington's bullpen but as noted above, Toronto's bullpen allowed Tampa Bay to win Saturday and Sunday in its last at-bat. Toronto's bullpen allowed eight ERs over 8.2 innings (8.31 ERA) over the weekend vs the Rays. Closer Ken Giles faltered after getting two outs in the ninth on Sunday (then allowed two runs, sending the game to extra-innings) and in the process, injured his elbow. He will undergo an MRI to determine the severity of his injury. I'm backing the rejuvenated vet Sanchez in this one, as the Nats win "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the  Month (AL West) is on the Oak A's at 4:10 ET.

The Houston Astros are expected to win the AL West but the Angels and A's may have "other ideas." Both teams believe that they can make a run at Houston and with the expanded playoffs, BOTH teams are legitimate wild card contenders. Oakland won Friday night's opener 7-3 in dramatic fashion, as Olson hit a game-winning grand slam in the 10th inning. The Angels bounced back Saturday, winning 4-1 win behind a solid start from newcomer Dylan Bundy (6.1 IP / 3 hits / 1 ER / 7-0 KW ratio).

The rubber match of the series is Sunday, as Shohei Ohtani (DNP in 2019) takes on Mike Fiers (15-4, 3.90 ERA in 2019). Ohtani, the two-way phenom from Japan, was 4-2 with a 3.31 ERA in 10 starts for the Angels in 2018 before serving exclusively as a designated hitter (and pinch hitter) last year following Tommy John surgery. He served as the Angels' DH on Friday night (1-for-5). It's expected that he will pitch once a week - ideally each Sunday - and will not be in the lineup the days before or after each outing (he sat out Saturday). Ohtani will be returning to the scene of his first career start on April 1, 2018, when he defeated the Athletics with six solid innings. He then struck out a career-high 12 Oakland hitters in a rematch one week later at home (2-0, 2.08 ERA).

Fiers set career highs in wins (15), starts (33) and innings pitched (184.2) last year in his first full season in Oakland. Since joining Oakland in August of 2018 (from Detroit), Fiers has made 43 regular season starts for the A's, who have gone 31-12 in those contests! Oakland lost Saturday to LA but takes the field having won EIGHT of its last 10 home games vs the Angels. That should NOT be a surprise, as while the A's have gone 102-60 at home in 2018 and 2019, the Angels are 72-90 away from Anaheim in that span. This marks Ohtani's first start since September of 2018, while Fiers is 13-3 in his career at Oakland Coliseum and went 3-0 (3.04 ERA) in four starts against the Angels in 2019 (Oakland won all four games). Oakland, behind Fiers, is the play.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Chi Cubs at 2:20 ET.

The Cubs looked to be in good shape for a wild card berth with a month left in the 2019 season (led the Brewers by five games) but Chicago lost FIVE of seven to Milwaukee in late August and early September, before completely 'imploding' by losing 10 of its final 12 regular season games (Cubs would finish FIVE games back of the final NL wild card spot). The Brewers grabbed the final NL wild card spot, besting the Mets by three games but then 'coughed up' an early three-run lead in a 4-3 loss to that Nationals (not sure it made Milwaukee feel any better that Washington went on to win the World Series). Joe Maddon, who guided the Cubs to a long-awaited World Series championship in 2016, decided to cut ties with the club and first-year manager David Ross takes over for the Cubs, Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell begins his sixth season with the Brewers and saw his team edge the Cubs for the Central title in 2018 (swept Colorado 3-0 in the NLDS before losing the NLCS to the Dodgers in seven games) plus won 89 games last year. The really good news for Milwaukee is that it will have the luxury of a healthy Christian Yelich, whose bid for back-to-back NL Most Valuable Player awards was derailed when he suffered a fractured kneecap with just under three weeks left in the 2019 campaign (Yelich has won the past two NL batting titles while hitting 80 HRs during that span).

The two NL Central rivals have split the first two games of this three-game set, with the Cubs winning 3-0 on Friday night (Ross allowed Hendricks to stay in and get his CG shutout win!) and the Brewers rebounding with an 8-3 win on Saturday afternoon. Sunday's pitching matchup features Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta (7-3, 5.29 ERA in 2019) and Chicago's Tyler Chatwood (5-3, 3.76 in 2019). Peralta worked primarily a starter as a rookie in 2018 (14 of 16 appearances were starts), but worked mainly out of the bullpen last season, making 31 of his 39 appearances in relief. Chatwood has been a starter for much of his career but after making 20 starts for Chicago in 2018, he made 33 of his 38 appearances out of the bullpen in 2019. This will be Peralta's first career start against the Cubs. He has faced Chicago three times in relief, going 1-0 with a 5.79 ERA. In contrast, Chatwood is 4-3 with a 2.91 ERA In 12 career games (six starts) against Milwaukee.

The Brewers have had trouble mustering offense at Wrigley Field since the start of the 2018 season, failing to produce more than two runs in 13 of 20 visits. The Brewers finally snapped out of that funk in Saturday's 8-3 rout but note that Chatwood was particularly strong against the Brewers in 2019, limiting them to two runs in 14.1  innings for a 1.26 ERA. let's also not forget that the Cubs owned the second-best home record in the NL (51-30) in 2019. Cubs win! Cubs win!

Good luck...Larry 

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Min Twins at 2:10 ET.

Minnesota won the AL Central in 2019 by EIGHT games over Cleveland, finishing 101-61. It earned the franchise its first 100-win season since 1965, a year the Twins lost a seven-game World Series to Sandy Koufax and the LA Dodgers. Minnesota's lineup scored the second-highest run total in the majors (939), while leading all teams in HRs (307 represented a major league record!) and RBI. The White Sox the White Sox scored a pathetic paltry 708 runs, the third-worst number in the AL behind division rivals Detroit and Kansas City. Chicago finished the season 72-89, 28.5 games back of the Twins. It represented the team's NINTH losing season in the 11 years since the White Sox last made the postseason (2008).  However, only the Astros and Yankees had a higher difference in divisional win percentage and non-divisional win percentage than the White Sox. With division games (40 of 60) accounting for two-thirds of the 2020 season, the White Sox could be much more dangerous than last season's record indicates. The White Sox added key veterans like catcher Yasmani Grandal and left-handed pitcher Dallas Keuchel in the off-season, to go along with a budding young core featuring reigning AL batting champion Tim Anderson (.335).

The AL Central foes have split the first two contests of this three-game series. The Twins won 10-5 on Friday, before the White Sox 'returned the favor' with a 10-3 victory on Saturday. The White Sox beat the Twins at their own game on Saturday, including FIVE home runs (note: Chicago hit five HRs in a game only ONCE in 2019. Sunday's rubber match will feature Kenta Maeda (10-8, 4.04 ERA in 2019 with the Dodgers) of Minnesota going up against Chicago's Reynaldo Lopez (10-15, 5.38 in 2019). 

Maeda has solid success as a starter in his first two seasons with the Dodgers (won 29 games), but was moved to the bullpen last season. Note that he excelled in relief in last year's run to the World Series but the trade to Minnesota gives Maeda the opportunity to return to a full-time starting role. Lopez has made at least 32 starts in each of the last two seasons for the White Sox but his ERA went from 3.91 in 2018 to 5.38 last season. He allowed 203 hits in 184 IP, while allowing WAY to many HRs (35).

It can't be good news for Chicago that Lopez lost all three of his starts against Minnesota in 2019, posting a 9.60 ERA while allowing five HRs and 20 runs over 15 innings. He is now 1-4 with a 5.71 ERA in seven career starts (team is 2-5) against the Twins, allowing EIGHT home runs in 41 innings (remember, Minnesota hit a MLB record 307 HRs in 2019!). Maeda will be making his second career start against the White Sox, having allowed one run on five hits over five innings in a July 19, 2017 road start that the Dodgers won, 9-1. Maeda made his main mark with the Dodgers in the bullpen in the playoffs. Only former teammate Kenley Jansen has made more postseason appearances over the last four seasons and Washington closer Sean Doolittle is the only pitcher with more than 10 postseason games to have a better ERA than Maeda's bullpen ERA of 1.64. However, Maeda made it clear in an interview with the Minneapolis Star Tribune this week that he prefers a starting role. He's gets his first chance here and in Lopez, he may just have the 'perfect' opposing starter!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the StL Cards at 2:15 ET.

Taking the mound on Saturday afternoon will be Pittsburgh's Trevor Williams (7-9, 5.38 ERA in 2019) the Cards' Adam Wainwright (14-10, 4.19 ERA in 2019). Williams had a surprising 2018 (14-10 with a 3.11 ERA that ranked 7th-best in the NL) but he struggled with a right strain injury in 2019, as his ERA jumped more than TWO runs (see above). St Louis converted Wainwright to a starter in 2007 and over the next seven seasons, he twice won 20 games and two other times won 19 games. During those four seasons, (2009, '10, '13 and '14), he twice finished second in the Cy Young voting and twice finished third. Injuries limited him to less than 10 starts in TWO of the next four years (2015-18) but at 37, he made 31 starts in 2019. He won five decisions last September to finish with his most victories (14) since winning 20 in 2014. Wainwright drew the season's second start on the strength of the throwing program he maintained during the pandemic shutdown.

Wiliams slumped last season but he was 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in two starts against the Cardinals. Then again, he is 4-4 with a 5.19 ERA in 14 career appearances against St. Louis, including 11 starts (team is 4-7). Wainwright was 3-0 with a 3.41 ERA in five starts against the Pirates in 2019 (Cards were 4-1), which comes as no surprise. He is 18-7 with a 3.91 ERA in 44 career games against the Pirates, including 38 starts (Cards are 26-12). Pittsburgh tied for the National League lead in team batting average last season (.265) but finished 11th in runs (758). Wainwright and St Louis is the play.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Pitching Mismatch of the Month (AL) is on the Min Twins at 8:10 ET.

My 9* Pitching Mismatch (AL) is on the Min Twins at 8:10 ET. Minnesota won the AL Central in 2019 by EIGHT games over Cleveland, finishing 101-61. It earned the franchise its first 100-win season since 1965, a year theTwins lost a seven-game World Series to Sandy Koufax and the LA Dodgers. Minnesota's lineup scored the second-highest run total in the majors (939), while leading all teams in HRs (307 represented a major league record!) and RBI. The White Sox the White Sox scored a pathetic paltry 708 runs, the third-worst number in the AL behind division rivals Detroit and Kansas City. Chicago finished the season 72-89, 28.5 games back of the Twins. It represented the team's NINTH losing season in the 11 years since the White Sox last made the postseason (2008). However, only the Astros and Yankees had a higher difference in divisional win percentage and non-divisional win percentage than the White Sox. With division games (40 of 60) accounting for two-thirds of the 2020 season, the White Sox could be much more dangerous than last season's record indicates. The White Sox added key veterans like catcher Yasmani Grandal and left-handed pitcher Dallas Keuchel in the off-season, to go along with a budding young core featuring reigning AL batting champion Tim Anderson (.335).

Getting to tonight's pitching matchup, it's Juan Berrios (14-8, 3.68 ERA in 2019) for the Twins and Lucas Giolito (14-9, 3.41 ERA in 2019) for the White Sox. Berrios matched his career-high win total en route to earning his second straight All-Star berth while reaching 200 innings for the first time in his four-year career. Giolito posted a horrific 6.13 ERA in 2018 but turned things around in a big way last season (see above), joining Berrios on the AL All-Star team. Giolito opens the 2020 season as Chicago's ace.

While I acknowledge Giolito's massive improvement from 2018 to 2019, Berrios continued his domination of the White Sox last season, winning four of five decisions to boost his lifetime numbers against them to 11-2 with a 2.40 ERA (Twins are 12-2 in his 14 starts vs Chicago). Add to that the fact that the Twins owned a 50-26 record within the division last season (including a 13-6 mark against the White Sox) and the play is to back Berrios and the Twins in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Tex Rangers at 8:05 ET.

The official opening of Globe Life Field was scheduled for March 31 against the LA Angels. However, COVID-19 had other plans. The Texas Rangers play their first regular-season game at their new ballpark in Arlington (cost of $1.2 billion) against the Colorado Rockies on Friday, Texas is coming off a 78-84 season (29 games out of first-place), while Colorado went 71-91 in 2019, 35 games back of the Dodgers. It seems like 'light years' ago but it was actually 2010 and 2011 when Texas played in back-to-back World Series (lost San Francisco in 2010 and St Louis in 2010). As for the Rockies, they have played in the postseason just five times in their 27-year history, reaching the World Series just once (2007 loss to the Red Sox).

Tonight's pitching matchup features Colorado's German Marquez (12-5, 4.76 ERA in 2019) and Lance Lynn (16-11, 3.67 ERA in 2019) forTexas. Marquez had his 2019 season cut short when he was shut down last August with inflammation in his pitching arm. Marquez leads a young rotation and will make his first Opening Day. He has never faced Texas and is 38-24 with a 4.32 ERA in 96 career games (93 starts). Similar to most Colorado starters, his road ERA is 3.72 ERA, while it's 5.01 at Coors Field (note: he was 7-3 with a 3.67 ERA in 15 road starts last season).

Lance Lynn is also making his first start on Opening Day. He was a solid part of the St Louis rotation from 2012 to 2017. He missed the entire 2016 season due to injury but in those other five seasons, he won 71 games. He signed a FA deal with Minnesota in 2018 and waas flop, going 7-8 with a 5.10 ERA. He was traded during the season to the Yankees and went 3-2 with a 4.14 ERA. Texas took a chance on him in 2019 and responded by winning a team-high 16 games. He'll be counted on heavily again in 2020's 60-game season, as after Mike Minor (14-10, 3.59 ERA), no other Texas pitcher won more than SEVEN games.

Colorado has typically been a poor road team (was 28-53 in 2019) and while Texas struggled on the road as well I(33-48), the Rangers were 45-36 at home last season. Globe Life Field's 40,300 seats will be devoid of fans tonight (the only cheering will come from piped-in crowd noise) but behind Lynn, I expect the Rangers to win their 'home opener!'

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL Central) is on the Chi Cubs at 7:10 ET.

The Cubs looked to be in good shape for a wild card berth with a month left in the 2019 season (led the Brewers by five games) but Chicago lost FIVE of seven to Milwaukee in late August and early September, before completely 'imploding' by losing 10 of its final 12 regular season games (Cubs would finish FIVE games back of the final NL wild card spot). The Brewers grabbed the final NL wild card spot, besting the Mets by three games but then 'coughed up' an early three-run lead in a 4-3 loss to that Nationals (not sure it made Milwaukee feel any better that Washington went on to win the World Series). Joe Maddon, who guided the Cubs to a long-awaited World Series championship in 2016, decided to cut ties with the club and first-year manager David Ross takes over for the Cubs, Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell begins his sixth season with the Brewers and saw his team edge the Cubs for the Central title in 2018 (swept Colorado 3-0 in the NLDS before losing the NLCS to the Dodgers in seven games) plus won 89 games last year. The really good news for Milwaukee is that it will have the luxury of a healthy Christian Yelich, whose bid for back-to-back NL Most Valuable Player awards was derailed when he suffered a fractured kneecap with just under three weeks left in the 2019 campaign (Yelich has won the past two NL batting titles while hitting 80 HRs during that span).

Taking the mound will be Brandon Woodruff (11-3, 3.62 ERA in 2019) for Milwaukee and Kyle Hendricks (11-10, 3.46 ERA in 2019) for Chicago. Woodruff had a breakout season in 2019, making the All Star team. He posted his 11th victory in his first start after the All-Star break but then suffered an oblique strain that sidelined him for nearly two months. He made just three starts (including that wild card game vs the Nats) after returning on Sep 17. Of note is, the Brewers were a MONEY-MAKING 18-4 in his 22 regular season starts in 2019.

 It seems hard to believe that Kyle Hendricks has already been with the Cubs for five-plus seasons. He's accomplished quite a bit in his time with Chicago, starting Game 7 of the World Series in 2016, a season in which he owned the lowest ERA in all of MLB (2.13). He has never finished a season with a WHIP higher than 1.19. Hendricks will make his first Opening Day start in this one, as will Woodruff (note: Woodruff continues the trend of the Brewers having had a different Opening Day starter in each of the past six years). 

Woodruff has yet to beat the Cubs in five appearances (three starts), posting a 6.75 ERA (his ERA is 7.10 in those three starts). Meanwhile, the Cubs owned the second-best home record in the NL at 51-30 and Hendricks was superb at Wrigley Field in 2019, posting a 2.04 ERA and .206 batting average in 14 starts. Cubs win! Cubs win!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* World Series Game 7 Decider is on the Hou Astros at 8:08 ET.

Houston lost Games 1 and 2 at home but the team's bats 'woke up' in Washington, scoring 19 runs in winning all THREE games played in D.C. Meanwhile, Washington hitters disappeared, scoring just ONE in each home contest. In Games 3 and 4, the Nats were an abysmal 1-19 with RISP and left 21 men on base. The big story of Game 5 was Scherzer's late scratch but that didn't explain Washington getting just FOUR hits (lone run came on a Soto HR) in Game 5 or the team going a combined 8 of 62 (.129) at the plate in Games 4 and 5. I passed Games 1 & 2 but then ca$hed 10* plays on Houston in Game 3 (MLB Game of the Year) and Game 4. My Game 5 play was made "no-action" because of the late pitching change but I 'nailed' my 10* Game of the Week play in Game 6 on the Nats, when they won 7-2! I noted HOF manager Earl Weaver famous quote, "Momentum is only as good as tomorrow's starting pitcher," Taking Strasburg over Verlander. Now it's Game 7, as Max Scherzer takes on Zach Greinke.

Scherzer is apparently recovered from the neck injury that scratched him from Game 5, as he threw Tuesday afternoon and pronounced himself ready to make the Game 7 start. "Max will pitch until his neck decides he can't pitch anymore," Washington manager Dave Martinez said in a press conference. "I can't see myself telling Max, 'you're only going to go 75 pitches.' He's going to want to go out there and go as long as he can." Scherzer struggled in the wild card game early but settled down, as the Nats rallied to win 4-3. He's pitched one inning of relief plus made three postseason starts since, going 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA over 19 innings in those starts (25 Ks). Greinke was awful in Game 3 of the ALDS at Tampa Bay (six ERs allowed in 3.2 innings of a 10-3 loss) but pitched better in Game 1 of the ALCS (three ERs over six innings with a 6-0 KW ratio), although Houston lost, 7-0. He has yet to complete five innings in each of his last two postseason starts but the Astros have won both games (8-3 & 4-1), with Greinke allowing just two ERs over nine innings.

The road team has won EACH of the first six games of this seven-game series. It's likely you've already heard that's NEVER happened before in World Series history. Can (will?) the Nats make it 7-for 7 for the road team in the 2019 World Series? No one knows how effective Scherzer will be and I'm betting on Houston, which I believe is MLB's best team (owned MLB's best home record in the regular season. The Astros won a club-record 60 games at home this season and endured a losing skid of more than two games at Minute Maid Park only once (Sept 10-12 against the Oakland Athletics), prior to the World Series. Greinke has been one of MLB's best home pitchers since 2011 and the Astros acquired Greinke from the Arizona Diamondbacks at the July 31 trade deadline with just this kind of moment in mind (Greinke went 8-1 over 10 starts with the Astros). He was a heralded acquisition at the trade deadline but has yet to deliver a "signature" pitching performance for the Astros. Game 7 would serve as a timely reminder of Greinke's stellar resume and validate what Houston surrendered (four minor-leaguers) to secure his services from the Arizona Diamondbacks.That's the bet!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MLB Game of the Week is on the Was Nats at 8:07 ET.

The Houston Astros waited 55 years for their first World Series championship (2017) but the the Astros are now just ONE win away from claiming their second in a three-year span. Houston dropped the first two games of the 2019 World Series at home but rebounded to win Games 3, 4 and 5 in Washington, outscoring the Nats 19-3!

Houston bats 'woke up' in Washington, while Washington hitters disappeared. In Games 3 and 4, the Nats were an abysmal 1-19 with RISP and left 21 men on base. The big story of Game 5 was Scherzer's late scratch but that doesn't explain Washington getting just FOUR hits (lone run came on a Soto HR) in Game 5 or the team going a combined 8 of 62 (.129) at the plate in Games 4 and 5.

Houston returns home needing ONE win to clinch the series and the Astros were an MLB-best 60-21 during the regular season at Minute Maid Park and 5-1 in the postseason, before losing the first two of the World Series the Nationals last week. After winning Games 1 and 2, the Nationals had won EIGHT straight postseason games in 2019 but as already detailed above, it all 'fell apart' for them when they returned to D.C. However, as HOF manager Earl Weaver famously said, "Momentum is only as good as tomorrow's starting pitcher." With that in mind, here's the Game 6 starters.

Stephen Strasburg has made five appearances (four starts) in the 2019 postseason, going 4-0 with a win in relief, while the Nats are 4-0 in his starts. He owns a 1.93 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, upping his career record in the playoffs to 5-2 with a 1.34 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in eight appearances (seven starts). Justin Verlander pitched very well in Winning Game 1 of the ALDS (seven scoreless innings, allowing one hit with an 8-0 KW ratio) but he's 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA over his last four playoff starts (including a 12-3 setback in Game 2), with the Astros going 1-3 in those starts. Verlander's World Series woes are well-documented but worth repeating. He's 0-5 with a 5.73 ERA over six starts (teams are 1-5). He has surrendered 24 runs on 30 hits over 33 World Series innings and has issued 11 walks and seven HRs with 36 strikeouts. Not exactly the kind of numbers one would expect from a future Hall of Famer.

Strasburg was the top pick of the 2009 MLB Draft and he went 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA, leading the National League with a career high in wins, while also striking out a career-best 251. He CAN'T win the World Series for the Nats in Game 6 but he can get them to a Game 7 and that's my bet!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Hou Astros at 8:07 ET.

I had the Houston Astros as my MLB Game of the Year in Game 3 and Houston won, 4-1. Have the Astros "made it a series?" Time will tell and Game 4 will provide the answer. The top-three hitters in Houston's lineup each had three hits and each scored two runs, while Altuve also had two RBI. Greinke could only give Houston 4.2 innings, as he once again struggled, allowing seven hist and three walks. However, he continually worked out of trouble, allowing just one run. Five Houston relievers were able to pitch 4.1 scoreless innings. Was is it Houston's pitching or the failure of Washington's bats? The Nats were an abysmal 0-of-10 with RISP and left 12 men on base, as they saw their EIGHT-game postseason winning streak snapped. Washington's Sanchez was hardly the same pitcher we last saw in Game 1 of the NLCS, when he took a no-hitter in the 8th inning. He allowed 10 hits and four ERs in 5.1 innings.

The Game 4 starters will be Jose Urquidy and Patrick Corbin.Houston manager A.J. Hinch said after Game 3 that Urquidy will be the starter and will go as far as he can, before turning it over to the bullpen. He is well-rested as he last pitched Oct 19, a night in which he struck out five in 2.2 innings of relief and gave up one run and three hits against the New York Yankees in Game 6 of the ALCS (Houston won 6-4, clinching that series). Urquidy's only other appearance this postseason was Oct 8 against the Tampa Bay Rays when he pitched 1.1 scoreless innings in Game 4 of the ALDS.Corbin has been used out of the bullpen FOUR times this postseason , alongside two starts. He was solid in Game 1 of the ALDS at the Dodgers (6 IP / 1 ER) but Washington lost, 6-0. He got the win in Game 4 of the NLCS against St Louis but it sure helped that the Nats scored SEVEN times in the first inning. He did have 12 Ks but lasted only five innings, while allowing four ERs.

A.J. Hinch said on the FOX broadcast after Game 3. "Jose Urquidy has been really good for us. He's started a little bit, and he's been in the 'pen, and we're going to turn it over to him in the first inning (of Game 4), give him an opportunity to go as deep as he can." Urquidy made nine regular season appearances (seven starts / team was 4-3), posting a 3.95 ERA with an excellent 40-7 KW ratio. Corbin had a strong finish to the season (9-2 over his last 19 starts / team was 13-6) but he owns a 6.91 ERA in his six 2019  postseason appearances plus has a 5.21 ERA in three career starts vs Houston.

In taking the Astros in Game 3, I noted Houston was MLB's best road team the last three regular seasons (157-86, .646) and I'll note here that the Houston lineup draws a lefty in Corbin, and Houston was 38-11 vs left-handers in 2019 (is 2-1 in the postseason vs lefties). A win Saturday would move the Nationals one victory away from their first World Series title but a loss would set another matchup against of Cole and Scherzer, with the series tied at two-all. That would be great for baseball and my bet says that;s EXACTLY what we should expect.

Good luck...Larry

My  MLB 10* Game of the Year is on the Hou Astros at 8:07 ET.

The Washington Nationals, who were just 19-31 after their first 50 games of the 2019 season, are now just TWO wins away from the franchise's FIRST-EVER World Series title. The Nats have stunned just about everyone (maybe not themselves) by winning the first two games of the World Series in Houston and can now take a commanding 3-0 lead when they host the Astros on Friday. Washington became the 26th team to win Games 1 and 2 on the road in a best-of-seven series under the 2-3-2 format and only three clubs, the last being the 1996 Atlanta Braves in the World Series, have lost. Houston was a prohibitive favorite to win its second World Series title in three seasons instead finds itself in a virtual MUST-WIN in the first World Series game played in the nation's capital since 1933.

The Game 3 pitching matchup will be Zach Greinke and Anibal Sanchez. Greinke went 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA in 10 regular-season starts (Houston was 8-2) with the Astros after being acquired from Arizona at the trade deadline. However, he lost his first two postseason outings at Tampa Bay in the ALDS and against the Yankees in Game 1 of the ALCS, allowing 12 hits and nine ERS over just 9.2 innings for an 8.38 ERA. He started Game 4 of the ASLCS as well, with the Astros winning 8-3 but he was far from sharp. He allowed just one run but three hits and four walks with five strikeouts and was pulled after 4.1 innings.

Sanchez was a pleasant surprise last season after signing with Atlanta during spring training, going 7-6 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. However, he signed a two-year deal in the off-season with Washington. Sanchez opened 0-6 with a 5.10 ERA through nine starts (team was 3-6). He suffered a left hamstring strain in May that cost him 10 days on the injured list and he missed one start. However, he returned to the rotation to help fuel Washington's surge after the team went 19-31 in its first 50 games. Sanchez would go 8-0 with a 3.21 ERA over a 16-start unbeaten stretch from May 29 through Aug 30 (he allowed three ERs or less in 13 of those 16 starts with the Nats going 11-5) but then faltered in his first two starts of Sep. He lost 8-4 at home to the Mets and then 5-0 at Minnesota (6.75 ERA), before winning his final three regular season starts (2.37 ERA). Sanchez pitched well in Game 3 vs the Dodgers (5 IP / 1 ER / 9 Ks), leaving with a 2-1 lead after five innings but watched Patrick Corbin and the bullpen allow SEVEN runs in the sixth inning of a 10-4LA win. However, Sanchez was just FOUR outs away from a no-hitter in Game 1 of the NLCS, when Jose Martinez singled. He did get the win in a 2-0 Nats victory.

The problem is, Sanchez has NOT pitched, since Oct 11. It's easy right now to argue that this is Washington's time but I will NOT sell the Astros short, just yet. Houston is in the World Series for the second time in three seasons and the team's road play has been a big reason for that. Houston is a MLB-best 157-86 (.646) on the road from 2017-19! As for Greinke, he's an "ace" and while he hasn't shown it yet in this postseason, it's my bet he comes through here for Houston. He has dominated the Nationals in his career, going 6-1 with a 1.27 ERA over nine starts (teams are 7-2). The latest meeting came at Washington on June 13 when Greinke was a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks. He gave up just two hits over 7.1 scoreless innings as Arizona earned a 5-0 victory. The Astros ain't 'dead' just yet!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* ALCS Game 4 play is on the NY Yankees at 8:08 ET.

Wednesday's ALCS contest was rained out, so Game 4 now goes tonight. The New York Yankees won Game 1, as Tanaka pitched six scoreless innings and 22-year-old Gleyber Torres (in his second season) singled, doubled and homered while driving in five runs!  However, New York's lethal offense has been held to just THREE runs the last two games, with Aaron Judge's two-run HR accounting for all the scoring in Game 2's 11-inning loss, while Torres provided New York’s only run in a 4-1 setback Tuesday when he hit a solo HR. Verlander and Cole combined to allow two ERs in 13.2 innings (1.32 ERA) and Houston relievers have allowed just one ER in 6.2 innings (1.35 ERA). Houston is a little worried about its offense as well, as while the Astros led the majors with a .275 BA in the regular season, they are hitting only .217 in the postseason, averaging a VERY modest 3.25 RPG.

My 10* ALCS Tie-Breaker is on the Hou Astros at 4:08 ET.

My 10* LEGEND Play is on the Hou Astros at 8:08 ET.

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Hou Astros at 8:08 ET.

The New York Yankees and Houston Astros jockeyed for the top spot in the American League for much of the regular season, so it is only fitting that they will meet in the 2019 ALCS. It's a rematch of the 2017 ALCS when the Astros outlasted the Yankees in seven games. New York comes in off a 3-game sweep of the Twins (outscored Minnesota 23-7), while the Astros were forced to play all FIVE games to eliminate the Rays, (Houston won Games 1 & 2 , lost Games 3 & 4 and then prevailed 6-1 in Game 5).

The Game 1 starters will be Masahiro Tanaka (11-9, 4.45 ERA) and Zack Greinke (18-5, 2.93 ERA). Tanaka did not have a very good season but he was excellent against the Twins last Saturday, allowing a single run on three hits with seven strikeouts over five solid innings. He is 4-2 with a 1.54 ERA in six career starts in the playoffs, including two in the 2017 ALCS against Houston in which he let up just two runs across 13 total innings. Greinke had a very good season pitching for Arizona and Houston (see above), going 8-1 in 10 starts (team was 8-2) for the Astros after the trade. However, Greinke was awful in Game 3 at Tampa Bay, allowing six runs on five hits (including three HRs) in just 3.2 innings.

I realize that Tanaka has a good postseason record but he was very poor on the road in 2019, posting a 6.05 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and .287 BAA. Greinke has faced the Yankees twice this season, allowing three runs on seven hits over 12.2 innings (2.13 ERA). One HAS to believe he will be HIGHLY-motivated after that 'ugly' effort vs the Rays. It sure won't hurt his confidence that the Astros are 63-21 at home this season (3-0 at home this postseason), outscoring opponents on average, 6.00-to-3.88 RPG. Let me also remind all that in thae2017 ALCS, the home team won all SEVEN games, with the Astros holding the Yankees to just THREE runs in the four games in Houston. What changes here?

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NLCS Game 1 Opener is on the St Louis at 8:08 ET.

The Yankees made short work of the Twins and the Astros, the team with MLB's best record in 2019, were able to put away the Rays with a 6-1 Game 5 win on Thursday, as the two ALDS matchups were won by the AL's two-best teams. However, form didn't hold over in the NL, where the two underdogs prevailed in the NLDS matchups. Both series went a full five games, with the St Louis Cardinals winning 13-1 at the 97-win Atlanta Braves and the wild-card Washington Nationals overcoming a 3-0 deficit to win 7-3 (10 innings) at the 106-win Los Angeles Dodgers. The NLCS opens Friday and while the Nationals won 93 games, the 91-win Cardinals won the NL Central which earns them the home field advantage in the seven-game series.

Taking the mound for Game 1 will be Anibal Sanchez (0-0, 1.80 ERA) and Miles Mikolas (1-0, 1.50 ERA). Sanchez was a pleasant surprise last season after signing with Atlanta during spring training, going 7-6 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. However, he signed a two-year deal in the off-season with Washington. Sanchez opened 0-6 with a 5.10 ERA through nine starts (team was 3-6). He suffered a left hamstring strain in May that cost him 10 days on the injured list and he missed one start. However, he returned to the rotation to help fuel Washington's surge after the team went 19-31 in its first 50 games. Sanchez would go 8-0 with a 3.21 ERA over a 16-start unbeaten stretch from May 29 through Aug 30 (he allowed three ERs or less in 13 of those 16 starts with the Nats going 11-5) but then faltered in his first two starts of Sep. He lost 8-4 at home to the Mets and then 5-0 at Minnesota (6.75 ERA), before winning his final three regular season starts (2.37 ERA). Sanchez pitched well in Game 3 vs the Dodgers (5 IP / 1 ER / 9 Ks), leaving with a 2-1 lead after five innings but watched Patrick Corbin and the bullpen allow SEVEN runs in the sixth inning of a 10-4 LA win.

Mikolas was an All-Star selection last season for the Cards, going 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA (Cards were 24-8 in his 32 starts, giving him an outstanding plus-$1,418 moneyline mark). However, one season after tying for the NL lead in wins, his 14 losses in 2019 were tied for the most losses. St Louis went 17-15 in his starts (-$132), quite a drop-off from his 2018 numbers. Mikolas pitched reasonably well at home (3.01 ERA / 1.05 WHIP / .247 BAA) but struggled badly on the road (5.40 ERA / 1.42 WHIP / .297 BAA). Mikolas got the nod in Game 1 of the NLDS and held Atlanta to one run on three hits over five innings without factoring in the decision. He came out of the bullpen in Monday's Game 4 and earned a victory with a perfect 10th inning when Yadier Molina provided a walk-off RBI sac fly in the bottom of the inning.

The Nats' turnaround has been something (76-38, .667 after their 19-31 start) but don't be too quick to dismiss the Cards' excellent play after the All Star break, as St Louis went 47-27 (.635) after the break. Washington is playing in the franchise's first NLCS since the Montreal Expos lost in five games to the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1981. Meanwhile, the Cards have played is six World Series since 1982, winning three titles. The Expos became the Nationals in 2005 and after failing to advance to the NLCS in four previous tries (all since 2012), the Nats FINALLY won an NLDS matchup. In stark contrast, the Cards have made the playoffs 13 times since 2000 and have now advanced to the NLCS for the 10th time in that span. Maybe it is "finally Washington's time" but seeing is believing. I've got the Cards in Game 1.

Good luck...Larry

My 7* Game 5 Decider is on the LA Dodgers at 8:37 ET.

The Nats are best-known for their playoff failures but after a 19-31 start in 2019, Washington finished on a 74-38 run. The Nats beat the Brewers in the wild card game & now it's a deciding Game 5 vs the Dodgers (the NL's best team all season, finishing with 13 more wins than the Nats). The Dodgers made short work of the Washington Nationals in Game 1 by winning 6-0. However, LA's bats went quiet in Game 2 against Stephen Strasburg (6 IP / 1 ER / 10Ks) and three relievers, falling 4-2. Those LA bats remained quiet again in Game 3, as LA entered the sixth inning of Game 3 behind 2-1. However, the Dodgers scored SEVEN times with two outs in the sixth inning on Sunday, en route to a 10-4 victory that gave them a 2-1 lead in the best-of-five series. Game 4 saw two 35-yerar-old Washington players, Scherzer (7 IP / 1 ER) and Zimmerman (3-run HR in the 5th), help the Nats tie the series up at two-all with a 6-1 win in Game 4.

It's a terrific pitching matchup in Game 5, as Stephen Strasburg (2019 postseason: 2-0, 1.00 ERA ) squares off against Walker Buehler (2019 postseason: 1-0, 0.00 ERA). Strasburg had the best regular season of his career (18-6, 3.32 ERA / 1.4 WIP / .210 BAA). and while he's a modest 3-2 in the postseason (five appearances / four starts), let's look closer. His postseason ERA is 0.64, the lowest in playoff history with a minimum of four starts (also owns an 0.82 WHIP).

Hard to argue too strongly against Strrasburg but Buehler has earned his way past Kershaw to become LA's 'ace.' Buehler was 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA over 30 regular season starts (team was 20-10) with a 1.04 WHIP, .223 BAA and 215-37 KW ratio. Buehler allowed just one hit and three walks while striking out eight across six innings of a 6-0 victory in Game 1 on Thursday. He is 7-1 with a 2.68 ERA in 15 starts at Dodger Stadium this season and 11-5 with a 2.52 ERA at home in 33 career games (29 starts) including the postseason.

Recapping from above, the Dodgers were 13 wins better this season than the Nats plus LA's run-differential was an NL-best plus-273, compared to Washington's plus-149. The Dodgers will take the field with a 60-23 record at Chavez Ravine, outscoring opponents on average, 5.41-to-3.31 RPG. The Expos became the Nats in 2005 but the franchise has yet to advance to an NLCS matchup. Why start here, especially against Buehler? He dominated in Game 163 last year, when the Dodgers handled the Colorado Rockies 5-2 in a regular-season tiebreaker to win the NL West, pitching six scoreless innings of one-hit ball. Including his Game 1 start of this series, Buehler takes the mound having allowed just one ER over his last three postseason starts (0.51 ERA) with a 22-3 KW ratio!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NLDS Clincher is on the StL Cardinals at 5:02 ET.

The Braves were down 1-0 going into the 9th inning of Game 3 but back-to-back run-scoring hits allowed them to rally for a stunning 3-1 victory. Atlanta led Game 4 by one run in the 8th on Monday but this time it was the Cards turn to rally, tying it in the bottom of the 8th and winning it in the bottom of the 10th. That set up this Game 5 in Atlanta, as the Braves look to win their first postseason series since 2001.

Game 5 is a pitching rematch of Game 2, as Jack Flaherty squares off against Mike Foltynewicz. The Cards could hardly blame their Game 2 loss on Flaherty, who gave up a first-inning run and then two-run HR in the seventh (8-1 KW ratio) in his postseason debut. Flaherty has been the Cards best pitcher post-July 4th, as he ended the regular season allowing two ERs or less in 15 of his last 16 starts. In those final 16 starts, he allowed just 11 ERs over 92.1 innings for an 0.91 ERA!

Foltynewicz dominated the Cardinals in Game 2, striking out seven with no walks and three hits allowed in seven scoreless innings to earn his first career postseason victory. That effort continued his revival since returning from a mid-summer trip to the minors. The 28-year-old owned a 6.37 ERA when he was sent to the minors in late June. He returned in early August and hardly impressed in his first two starts, allowing seven ERs over 11.1 innings (5.56 ERA). However, over his last nine starts (including Game 2 of this series), he's 5-1 with a 1.69 ERA dating to Aug 17, allowing 10 ERs on 35 hits in 53.1 innings with a 48-13 KW.

Both pitchers are 'on fire' but I always look to "play on" the loser of the first meeting in a quick "re-hook" situation. What's more, history is on the Cards side. The Braves squandered numerous chances to clinch the series in Game 4, which hardly bodes well for a franchise that hasn't advanced to a League Championship Series since 2001. Five more teams own that distinction (Cincinnati, Pittsburgh San Diego, Seattle and Washington) but while those five franchises have made a total of 14 postseason appearances in that time frame, the Braves have made NINE, all by themselves. As for the Cardinals, they have won FOUR series this century in which they were a loss away from elimination (the 2004 NLCS, the 2011 NLDS, the 2011 World Series and the 2013 NLDS). Cards win and then await the Was/LAD winner.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* MLB Las Vegas Insider is on the Min Twins.

The New York Yankees have outscored the Minnesota Twins 18-6 at Yankee Stadium Friday and Saturday to take a 2-0 lead in this ALDS. The Twins have now dropped a record 15 consecutive postseason games, 12 of them to the Yankees.Is Game 3 just a formality? The Yankees look for their third straight ALDS sweep against the Twins behind right-hander Luis Severino (1-1, 1.50 ERA) Minnesota will try to stay alive with veteran Jake Odorizzi (15-7, 3.51 ERA).

Severino was New York's 'ace' in 2018, going 19-8 witha 3.39 ERA in 32 starts (Yanks were 24-8, +$658). However, he missed most of 2019 with shoulder and lat issues. He made his 2019 debut on Sep 17 and threw nine scoreless innings over his first two starts but then allowed two runs in just three innings at Texas in his last outing on Sep 28. Is he ready for primetime (the postseason)? He hasn't been in the past, as he's struggled in the playoffs. He owns a 6.26 ERA in his six career postseason starts (Yanks are 3-3), working beyond five innings only ONCE.

Odorizzi was a disappointing 7-10 (4.49 ERA) in his first season with Minnesota last year (was signed as a FA away from Tampa Bay) but opened 2019 by going 9-2 with a 1.92 ERA through June 9 (team was 10-3 in his starts). Odorizzi was an All-Star for the first time in 2019 but missed a chance to pitch in his first All-Star Game due to a blister on his right middle finger. He struggled for all of July but went 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA in five August starts (Twins were 4-1) and 1-1 with 3.27 ERA in four September starts (Twins were 3-1). He finished the season with Minnesota going 21-9 in his 30 starts, earning a profit of $1,031.

OK, Minnesota has lost 15 straight postseason games and 10 in a row at home. That said, aren't the Twins due (overdue)? Severino has hardly pitched in 2019 and owns a poor playoff history, including a dismal outing against the Twins in the 2017 Wild Card Game when he allowed three runs while recording just ONE out! Meanwhile, Odorizzi has allowed three ERs or less in each of his final 10 starts in the regular season, finishing with six innings of one-run ball in a 4-2 win at Detroit on Sep 24. Minnesota gets off the schneid with a "W" in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Was Nationals at 6:40 ET.

The Los Angeles Dodgers made short work of the Washington Nationals in Game 1 by winning 6-0. However, LA's bats went quiet in Game 2 against Stephen Strasburg (6 IP / 1 ER / 10Ks) and three relievers (including Scherzer, who struck out all three batters in a one-inning effort), falling 4-2. Those LA bats remained quiet again in Game 3, as LA entered the sixth inning of Game 3 behind 2-1. However, the Dodgers scored SEVEN times with two outs in the sixth inning on Sunday, en route to a 10-4 victory that gave them a 2-1 lead in the best-of-five series. Cody Bellinger recorded his first two hits of the series in the sixth inning while Russell Martin lined a two-run double and Justin Turner launched a three-run homer during the uprising for Los Angeles, which had scored three runs in its previous 14 innings. Juan Soto’s two-run HR in the first inning held up for the Nats until they went to the bullpen in the sixth and were ONE strike away from getting out of the innings. It was NOT to be and now the Nats are ONE loss away from ending another postseason in disappointing fashion.

Rich Hill (4-1, 2.45 ERA) will take the mound for LA and Max Scherzer (11-7, 292 ERA / 0-0, 4.50 this postseason) for Washington. Hill gave up one run on one hit and six walks with 11 strikeouts over 5.2 innings in three starts in September (team was 3-0), after missing almost three months with a forearm strain. He made only 13 starts in an injury-interrupted season but LA did go 10-3. As you can see, LA limited his pitch counts since his return. The 39-year-old is 1-2 with a 3.04 ERA in 12 career postseason appearances (11 starts), with all but one occurring with the Dodgers.

Manager Dave Martinez decided to pull back Scherzer from a Game 3 start, giving the three-time Cy Young Award winner an extra day after striking out the side in one inning of Game 2 on Friday. The 35-year-old started the wild-card game on Tuesday and was reached for three runs in the first two innings (two HRs) but settled down before leaving after five innings. Scherzer is 4-5 with a 3.78 ERA in 18 career playoff games but his teams are just 4-10 in his 14 starts (hardly deserved a win in the wild card game).

Washington looked like it was in "good shape" into the 6th inning for Game 3 and again, was just ONE staike (or made out) away from leading no worse than 2-1 into the 7th but......Scherzer has NOT performed all that well in the postseason but if not now, when? Hill has been critical of getting pulled early in recent playoff starts but says he is not worried about whether the Dodgers will limit his innings. "Pitch count, whatever it is, I can't control that," Hill told reporters. "Whatever I can give the team, I'm going to give the team. And the decision that's made is going to be made obviously beyond my control. So that's first and foremost. And my expectations are to go out there and have the ball come out of my hand the way I want it to every time. So that's something that hasn't changed in a long time for me, and that's been pretty consistent, and it will be (Monday)."

Sound good but I think Washington can (and will) get to him. It's about time for Scherzer to pitch like a three-time Cy Young winner and if he does, we are headed to a Game 5 in LA featuring Strasburg and Buehler (great matchup). My bet says we're back to Chavez Ravine on Wednesday for Game 5.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Series G.O.Y. is on the StL Cards at 3:07 ET.

The Atlanta Braves lost Game 1 at home to the Cardinals 7-6 (Cards won the 9th inning, 4-3) but then won 3-0 in Game 2, as the red-hot Mike Foltynewicz (7 scoreless innings) out-dueled the equally red-hot Jack Flaherty (7 IP / 3 ERs). However, the Braves seemed 'dead in the water' in Game 3 at St Louis, entering the 9th inning down 1-0 (veteran Wainwright pitched 7.2 scoreless innings) and looked as if they would be facing elimination in Game 4. However, Dansby Swanson and Adam Duvall came through to push the team within one win of its first appearance in the NL Championship Series in 18, delivering back-to-back run-scoring hits as the Braves rallied for a stunning 3-1 victory. Cardinals closer Carlos Martinez got the blown save and the loss and has struggled mightily in the series, surrendering six runs on five hits and three walks over just 2.1 innings.

It's now the Cards facing elimination in Game 4 but the good news is that they will have Daniel Hudson (16-7, 3.35 ERA) on the mound. Hudson emerged as an anchor of the Cardinals' rotation while making 32 starts. He tied for third in the NL in victories and 11th in ERA, while recording the most wins by a rookie since Justin Verlander registered 17 with Detroit in 2006. The Cards were just 3-5 in his first eight starts but then won 19 of his last 24, with Hudson allowing less that three ERs in 22 of them! He finished the regular season by going 6-1 with a 1.86 ERA over his final nine starts, holding opponents to a .146/.268/.264 slash line. Hudson, who went 9-2 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 17 home starts (team was 13-4).

Atlanta held back on announcing who will start but it looks like Dallas Keuchel (8-8, 3.75 ERA). I don't get it. Many feel that Keuchel has provided Atlanta with needed veteran presence, giving up two ERs or less in SEVEN of his last nine starts. However, the Braves were just 10-9 in his 18 overall starts and Keuchel struggled on the road, with a 5.01 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and .296 BAA in nine starts. In 10 home starts he owned a 2.74 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and .239 BAA. He got the Game 1 start and gave up one run on five hits with three walks over 4.2 innings.

Why not Teheran here, as he gave up two of fewer ERs in 21 of his 33 regular-season starts? 'LOVE' Hudson over Keuchel (on THREE days' rest) in this spot.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the TB Rays at 1:05 ET.

The Houston Astros are on the verge of sweeping their ALDS matchup with the Tampa Rays. Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole combined to allow five hits and strike out 23 over 14.2 innings in Games 1 and 2 plus some timely hitting have Houston one win away from moving on the ALCS for a THIRD consecutive year. Tampa Bay entered MLB back in 1998 and opened with 10 straight losing seasons. However, the Rays would make a World Series run in 2008, where they lost 4-1 to the Phillies. That began a stretch of four postseason appearances in the next six years. However, the Rays surprised by earning a wild card berth in 2019 (first postseason appearance since 2013), beating the A's 5-1 in Wednesday's wild card game. The Rays have scored just THREE runs in the two losses and clearly have 'a big hill to climb' to get back into the series

Taking the mound for Game 3 will be Zack Greinke (18-5, 2.93 ERA) and Charlie Morton ( (16-6, 3.05 ERA / 1-0, 0.00 ERA in the postseason). Greinke will get first crack at clinching the best-of-five series for the Astros and he went 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA in 10 starts (Astros went 8-2) after being acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks at the trade deadline.Is it a concern that he's pitching for the first time since Sep 25? The good news for Tampa Bay is that it has its best pitcher taking the mound in this elimination game. Morton's last three season have been remarkable. He entered MLB back in 2008 with Atlanta and when the Astros signed him a two-year, $14 million contract after the 2016 season, Morton owned a career record of 46-71 (included him going 2-12 with a 7.57 ERA with Pittsburgh in 2010). What were the Astros thinking? Well, Morton went 14-7 for Houston in 2017, helping them to the franchise's first-ever World Series title. He followed with a 15-3 season in 2018, then the Rays signed Morton to a two-year, $30 million contract before the 2019 season. All Morton did during the regular season to go 16-6 (22-11 in team starts). Doing the math, after opening his career 46-71 in nine seasons, he's 45-16 these last THREE seasons.

Morton pitched the Rays into the ALDS with a very good performance in the Wild Card Game against Oakland on Wednesday, scattering five hits and an unearned run over five innings to earn the win. Morton has not taken a loss in his last five postseason appearances, four of which he made for the Astros in 2017 and 2018. He went the final four innings of the 2017 World Series-clinching victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 7. As for Greinke, I do NOT think it's good news that he hasn't pitched in almost two e=weeks. I'll also note that Greinke's worst start since joining Houston came against Tampa Bay back on Aug 29, when he was reached for five ERs on six hits over 5.2 innings. "These guys do a good job of controlling the situation," Rays manager Kevin Cash told reporters. "I don't think there's a real message. They know what's at stake. They've played so well all season long. We're going to have to have some things go in our favor now going forward, but we're capable of playing a really good game on Monday and see where that takes us."Rays 'live' to 'fight' another day.

Good luck...Larry

My 7* Late-Breaker is on the LA Dodgers at 9:37 ET.

The Dodgers took care of the Nats 6-0 in Game 1 of their NLDS, as Walker Buehler pitched six shutout innings and Max Muncy drove in three runs. Gavin Lux (first career playoff at-bat) and Joc Pederson both added eighth-inning HRs. We now move to Game 2 which features the marquee pitching matchup of Stephen Strasburg (18-6, 3.32 ERA) going up against Clayton Kershaw (16-5, 3.03 ERA).

Strasburg won a career-high 18 games in 2019 but is in a tough spot here, as the Nats needed him their wild card game vs the Brewers on Tuesday. Strasburg pitched three scoreless innings of relief to pick up the win, throwing 34 pitches (26 for strikes) while allowing two hits and striking out four. He now comes back on short rest to face the Dodgers, who are now 60-22 (outscoring opponents 5.45-to-3.30 RPG) at home in 2019, after last night's win. Delving a little deeper, the Dodgers are 44-11 vs righties at home (+$2,200), while averaging 5.8 RPG. Strasburg may own a 2.66 career ERA vs LA in 11 starts but he's just 3-5 and the Nats 3-8.

OK, let's state up front that Kershaw owns a 4.32 ERA in 30 playoff appearances. Now to the "good stuff." The Dodgers went 21-7 in Kershaw's 28 starts this season (+$788 ranked 13th-best among all starters) and that includes a 13-3 record in his home starts (note: 15 of those starts came at night, with LA going 13-2). Kershaw's had no problems with the Nats in his career, going 13-3 with a 2.65 ERA in 18 starts (LA is 15-3). With Strasburg having made his first-ever career relief appearance on Tuesday, it's not likely he'll pitch deep into this game. Them it's the worst bullpen in the NL (5.68 ERA). LA goes up 2-0 and the Nats will hope that Scherzer can pitch better than he did vs Milwaukee.

Good luck...Larry

My MLB 10* Game of the Week is on the Atl Braves at 5:02 ET.

Full, detailed analysis by 9:00 ET Thursday morning.

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Oak A's at 8:09 ET.

The Tampa Bay Rays take MLB's second-best road record (48-33) into tonight's wild card game in Oakland against the A's, who own MLB's 4th-best home record (52-29). Tampa Bay entered MLB back in 1998 and opened with 10 straight losing seasons. However, the Rays would make a World Series run in 2008, where they lost 4-1 to the Phillies. That began a stretch of four postseason appearances in the next six years. This wild card game marks the team's first postseason appearance since 2013. The Athletics moved from Kansas City to Oakland in 1968 and developed into a "mini-dynasty" by winning three consecutive World Series titles from 1972-74. A second "mini-dynasty" arose from 1988 to 1990, when the A's played in THREE straight World Series again, but this time lost TWO of the three. Oakland has not been able to keep up with the exploding salary situation since 2000 but this postseason appearance marks the team's 10 playoff appearance in that span. The kicker? The A's have won just ONE series (wild card or ALDS) in their previous NINE postseason appearances. Both teams finished the regular season strong, with Tampa Bay going 20-6 before losing its last two games, while Oakland went 18-6 before also dropping its last insignificant game at Seattle.

Charlie Morton (16-6, 3.05 ERA) will get the ball for the Rays, while the A's turn to Sean Manaea (4-0, 1.21 ERA). Morton's last three season have been remarkable. He entered MLB back in 2008 with Atlanta and when the Astros signed him a two-year, $14 million contract after the 2016 season, Morton owned a career record of 46-71 (included him going 2-12 with a 7.57 ERA with Pittsburgh in 2010). What were the Astros thinking? Well, Morton went 14-7 for Houston in 2017, helping them to the franchise's first-ever World Series title. He followed with a 15-3 season in 2018, then the Rays signed Morton to a two-year, $30 million contract before the 2019 season. All Morton has done this year is go 16-6 (22-11 in team starts). Doing the math, after opening his career 46-71 in nine seasons, he's 45-16 these last THREE seasons.

Manaea was chosen by Oakland manager Bob Melvin for this wild card start over Mike Fiers, who went 15-4 this season, including a 12-game win streak and a no-hitter. However, Fiers has had a rough September, winning only ONCE in five starts and compiling a 7.84 ERA. Manaea won 12 games for the A's in both 201 and 2018 season but suffered a torn labrum late in 2017. He needed surgery and missed the end of 2018 and almost the entire 2019 season. He was able to return to the mound September of 2019 and has made five starts. In his first start (at the NYY on Sep 1), he allowed just one hit over five scoreless innings, but the A's would go on to lose, 5-4. However, he would then win his last four starts of September and enters this game 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and .160 BAA.

So what's the play? Here's something I left out, above. Despite Morton's excellent season numbers, I will NOT ignore that over his last five road starts, he's allowed 22 ERs on 34 hits in just 26.1 innings for a 7.52 ERA. Oakland advances to the ALDS where, unfortunately, the Astros await.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on the Atl Braves at 3:05 ET.

The Atlanta Braves wrap up the regular season looking to avoid getting swept by the Mets, as they prepare for an NLDS meeting with the Central Division winners (StL or Mil). New York was 40-50 at the All-Star break but has 45-26 in the second half, including winning 13 of 19 games since Sep 8. However, this contest ends their season. However, the great news is that first baseman Pete Alonso set the big-league single-season rookie record with his 53rd homer in Saturday's 3-0 victory. Alonso’s third-inning solo shot provided the final piece of his likely NL Rookie of the Year campaign and he enters the season finale with 120 RBI, 102 runs scored and a .945 OPS.

Taking the mound today will be Mike Soroka (13-4, 2.60 ERA) for Atlanta and Noah Syndergaard (10-8, 4.30 ERA) for the Mets. If Alonso is the ROY, then Soroka is surely the rookie Pitcher of the Year. He has been extra special away from home, going 7-1 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, while allowing opponents to bat .195 in 15 road starts. Syndergaard wraps up the season with his career-high 32nd start plus enters Sunday having pitched 190.2 innings (another career high). However, he has limped toward the finish by allowing four ERs in each of his last four starts, posting a 6.97 ERA in that span.

Soroka is looking to nail down a start in Game 3 of the NLDS (would be on the road) and he's won both his starts against the Mets this season. In a meaningless game, the "play" is Soroka over Syndergaard.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on the Pit Pirates at 3:05 ET.

The Cincinnati Reds lost 5-4 in 15 innings in the series opener at Pittsburgh on Friday, extending their skid in Pittsburgh against the Pirates to 11 games. The Reds needed 12 innings on Saturday but won 4-2, ending that 11-game skid in the Steel City (dated back to June 2018). The Reds ended a five-game overall losing streak on Saturday as well, while the Pirates saw a four-game winning streak snapped. Both teams finish disappointing seasons on Sunday as 74-87 Cincinnati will end the year with its SIXTH straight losing season and 69-92 Pittsburgh has dropped off the earth after going 82-79 in 2018.

Tyler Mahle (2-12, 5.34 ERA) gets the nod for the Reds and Trevor Williams (7-8, 5.52 ERA) for the Pirates. It's Mahle's 25th birthday and he hopes to record his first win since May 31. However, just why should we expect that.? He lasted only 2.1 innings vs Milwaukee on Wednesday, getting roughed up for eight runs and seven hits (including three HRs), to run his winless drought to 13 appearances. He has made 14 road starts in 2019, going 0-8 with the Reds losing 12 of the 14!

OK, Williams is not much better. He gave up three runs or fewer in 12 of his final 13 outings in 2018 and opened 2019 with a 2.59 ERA in his first five starts (Pittsburgh won FOUR of the five). However, he enters Sunday with a 5.52 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and .286 BAA. That said, the Pirates are 14-11 in his starts in 2019 (the Reds are 6-18 in Mahle's starts, including 2-12 on the road) plus he is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA against the Reds this season. What's more, as noted above, the Reds had lost 11 straight at PNC Park before Saturday's win. Pirates start a new winning streak at home vs the Reds right here!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on the Tex Rangers at 3:05 ET.

The final game in the 26-year history of Globe Life Park will take place Sunday when the host Texas Rangers take on the New York Yankees on the last day of the regular season. The Rangers will leave behind the stadium in which they made eight playoff runs and won seven AL West titles. Texas made back-to-back World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011 but lost both. Texas enters this game 77-84, after beating the Yankees 9-4 on Saturday. As for New York, the Yankees will playing their final tune-up before hosting Minnesota for Game 1 of the ALDS on Friday.

The Yankees will use an opener in the finale (Chad Green) before giving some innings to Masahiro Tanaka (11-8, 4.47 ERA), who figures to start one of the first three games of the playoffs. Texas counters with Lance Lynn (15-11, 3.76 ERA). Tanaka has pitched well at Yankee Stadium in 2019 (8-3 with a 3.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .238 BAA) but he's been awful on the road. In 15 away starts, his ERA balloons to 6.16, his WHIP to 1.39 and his BAA to .282. Lynn won 71 games for the Cards in a five-year span from 2012-17 (he missed the 2016 season) but his 2018 season, split between the Twins and Yanks, was a flop (10-10, 4.77 ERA). Texas was "in the wild card hunt" just after the All Star break but the team finally folded. Lynn had gone eight straight starts without a win before picking one up at Oakland last Sunday, when he held the Athletics to two runs in 5.1 innings with 12 strikeouts against one walk in an 8-3 win.

Here's the catch. Yes, Lynn was 0-5 (team was 0-8) in that sttretch but since the start of August (nine starts, including his most recent win), he allowed three ERs in SEVEN of the nine, striking out 66 in 53 innings. The Rangers have been money-makers at home this season (44-36, +$1,4-03) and vs righties in home days games, are 10-3, averaging 7.3 RPG. Green and Tanaka are both righties and I noted Tanaka's road numbers above. NY has NOTHING to play for so back Lynn (this marks a career-high 33rd start) at this GREAT price!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET.

The Atlanta Braves have clinched the NL's second seed (will host the NL Central winner in one of the two NLDS), so their focus will be on getting their lineup in order as they open a three-game series at Citi Field with the Mets on Friday.Ronald Acuna Jr. will sit out the Mets series with a left groin strain that he suffered in Tuesday’s loss at Kansas City but first baseman Freddie Freeman, who missed the Kansas City series with a bone spur in his right elbow, is expected to return Friday. The Mets were eliminated from playoff contention on Wednesday but have clinched their first winning season since 2016. All eyes will be on likely NL Rookie of the Year Pete Alonso, who enters the final three games of the season with a big-league best 51 HRs, one off Aaron Judge’s rookie record of 52 set in 2017. Alonso is also attempting to become the first Mets player to lead the majors in home runs, as he leads Cincinnati third baseman Eugenio Suarez by two.

Getting the starts will be Dallas Keuchel (8-7, 3.59 ERA) and Marcus Stroman (9-13, 3.23 ERA).Many feel that Keuchel has provided Atlanta with needed veteran presence, giving up two ERs or less in EIGHT of his last nine starts. I'm not so sure I agree. The Braves are just 10-8 in his 18 overall starts and in eight road starts, he owns a 4.76 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and .291 BAA. I will note however, that Keuchel has faced the Mets twice since joining the Braves in late June, going 1-0 with no runs allowed on nine hits with 14 strikeouts in 13 innings. The Mets acquired Stroman from Toronto at the trade deadline and he's gone 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA in 10 starts (Mets are 7-3). The Mets won Stroman's first four starts and lost his next three, but enter this contest having won his last three. Has Stroman been "all the Mets had hoped he'd be?" I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

Not sure there is any kind of pitching edge in this one but Stroman is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in three career starts against the Braves, including his only start against them with the Mets coming on Aug. 15 in Atlanta. He allowed three runs (two earned) in 5.1 innings of a 10-8 win in that one. I doubt Keuchel will pitch more than five innings but I can see Stroman, who will become a free agent after the 2020 season, pitching very well. Again, all eyes will be on Alonso and I "have a feeling" this could be a big night for him. Not much for the Braves to play for here.

Good luck...Larry

My 7* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atl Braves at 8:15 ET.

Full, detailed analysis by 11:00 ET Tuesday morning.

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Reds at 6:40 ET.

The Milwaukee Brewers begin a season-ending six-game road trip tonight in Cincinnati with the first of three games with the Reds.The Brewers are 15-2 in their last 17 games, including an impressive 10-2 since losing 2018 MVP Christian Yelich for the season. Milwaukee is a MLB-best 17-4 in September and enters Tuesday 3 1/2 games back of St Louis in the NL Central, a half-game back of the 86-69 Nats for the No. 1 wild card spot but a full FOUR games clear of the Cubs for that second wild card spot with just SIX games remaining (a playoff spot seems pretty safe). As for the Reds, they have already secured a SIXTH straight losing season but at 73-83, they can match their highest win total since 2014 (76) by going 3-3 this week or exceed that win total by winning four or more games (note: Reds cap their season with three games at the sad-sack Pirates, who currently own a nine-game losing streak).

Adrian Houser (6-7, 3.83 ERA) takes the mound tonight for the Brewers against the Reds' Sonny Gray (11-7, 2.80 ERA). Houser entered the 2019 season with just nine career appearances, all in relief. He's made 33 appearances this season, including 16 starts. This marks his 11th consecutive start. Houser has allowed two ERs or less in SEVEN of his last 10 but he hasn't pitched past the fifth inning in any of his last FIVE. Houser has made 17 road appearances this season, posting a 4.42 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and .281 BAA. Houser's only career start vs the Reds came back in July 1 at Cincy, when he allowed three ERs over five innings of an 8-6 Milwaukee win (he settled for a no-decision).

Sonny Gray made the NL All Star team this season and continued his second-half surge with last Tuesday's  4-2 win at Wrigley against the Cubs (6.2 IP / 2 ERs / 9 Ks). He enters this contest 6-2 with a 1.91 ERA in 13 starts since the All-Star break, holding opponents to a .164 average and recording 96 strikeouts in 80 innings.The Reds lost his first two post-break starts (despite Gray posting a 2.08 ERA) but Cincy has won NINE of his last 11 starts. Gray could pitch Sunday at Pittsburgh but this may be his last start of 2019, a season in which he has "re-found" himself  by showing the form that made him a 14-game winner for the  A's in 2014 and '15. Sure, the Brewers are MLB's 'hottest' team but oddsmakers have made them the underdog here, because of the pitching matchup (or should I say, mismatch?). Gray is 2-0 with a 1.78 ERA in five career starts vs Milwaukee (FOUR have come here in 2019), with his teams going a PERFECT 5-0! Make that 6-0 after tonight!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the Cle Indians at 6:37 ET.

Bryce Harper's three-run HR catapulted the Philiies to a 9-4 win last night in Cleveland. However, the 79-74 Phillies remain FIVE games behind the Brewers for the NL's second wild card with only NINE nine left to play. Time is running out on Philadelphia but the team has no one to blame but itself, as the Phillies are just 32-31 since All Star break. Cleveland built a 4-1 lead after two innings last night but managed just ONE hit the rest of the way to see its five-game winning streak come to an end and the loss dropped them to 91-64, ONE game behind Tampa Bay for the AL’s second wild card. The rubber match of the three-game series goes tonight, carried on ESPN.

Vince Velasquez (7-7, 4.89 ERA) and Adam Plutko (7-4, 4.34 ERA) step to the mound tonight. Let's note that Velasquez is unbeaten in his last six outings (3-0 / team is 5-1) but add that his ERA in that stretch is 6.84. I'll also add that he has not completed more than five innings in any of his last SEVEN starts. Velasquez is 1-1 with a 1.46 ERA in two career outings against the Indians. Plutko is 3-1 with a 3.76 ERA over seven starts  (Indians are 5-2) since Aug15 and takes the mound tonight having allowed two ERs or less or in FIVE of his last six starts. Plutko will be facing Philadelphia for the first time in his career.

The idea that Velasquez has pitched well because he's unbeaten in his last six starts is folly (6.84 ERA, remember?), as he's just been lucky to get some excellent run support. I saw someone post that Fangraphs had Philly's chances of securing a playoff spot at 0.3% and that may be generous. Philadelphia is a 'dead team walking!' Meanwhile the Indians are just ONE back of Tampa Bay and VERY much 'alive' to make their FOURTH straight playoff appearance. Home teams wins this one "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the SD Padres at 10:10 ET.

The Arizona Diamondbacks begin their final road series of the 2019 season tonight in San Diego.A six-game losing streak from Sep 8-13 effectively took Arizona out of the running in the National League wild-card race and now it looks as if Ketel Marte, a 2019 All Star (.329 / 32 HRs / 92 RBI), will be sidelined indefinitely while dealing with back inflammation. The Diamondbacks enter the weekend needing to make up FIVE games (with just nine remaining) in order to grab the second wild card,. Considering that FOUR teams are between the 78-75 D'backs and that final wild card berth leaves their chances at "slim and none!"The 69-84 Padres are already guaranteed a better record than last year's 66-96 finish but they enter having lost SEVEN of their last eight on the way to the team's NINTH consecutive losing season.

Taking the mound tonight will be Merrill Kelly (11-14, 4.49 ERA) and Eric Lauer (8-9, 4.60 ERA). Kelly has been Arizona's best starting pitcher in September, going 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA in three starts, after working seven scoreless innings in a 1-0 win over Cincinnati last Saturday. The 30-year-old began September with a similar performance at home against San Diego (9/3), striking out nine while pitching seven scoreless innings of a 2-1 Arizona win. Lauer's road struggles continued in last Saturday's 11-10 loss at Colorado, as he allowed six runs (four earned) over just 2.1 innings, leaving him with a 4-6 record and 6.27 ERA in 14 starts away from home (Padres are 7-7). However, here at Petco Park (in 14 starts), Lauer's ERA is 3.22, that's THREE full runs lower than his road ERA.

That, coupled with Kelly's 5.89 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 15 road starts in 2019 (D'backs are 5-10), help set up this play. I noted earlier that Kelly pitched seven scoreless innings against the Padres on Sep 3 but will add that in his other three 2019 starts against the Padres, he's lasted just 12.2 innings, allowing 18 hits and 11 ERs for a 7.82 ERA. Getting back to Lauer, he's 2-2 with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP against Arizona in five career starts (Padres are 3-2). The away/home dichotomy of tonight's two starters puts me on San Diego in this one, buoyed by Lauer's sold numbers against Arizona and Kelly's struggles against the Padres prior to that Sep 3 outing.

Good luck...Larry

My MLB 10* Rivalry Game of the Year is on the Chi Cubs at 7:15 ET.

The St Louis Cardinals came out of the All Star break at just 44-44 but won 12 of 15 to open the second half. The team then hit a 2-8 skid but has since gone 27-12 and with 10 games left in the regular season, own a THREE-game lead over the Brewers and Cubs in the NL Central. Chicago opened its final homestand of the season (10 games) last Friday but after FOUR straight wins, have lost back-to-back games to the Reds and the Cubs are now 'fighting for their lives' with the Brewers for that final NL wild card spot plus would need to outplay the Cards by THREE games with just 10 to go, to catch St Louis atop the division (tall order). However, the Cubs do control their own destiny this weekend, as the Cards visit Wrigley for four games.

Taking the mound in tonight's series opener will be Jack Flaherty (10-8, 3.05 ERA) and Kyle Hendricks (11-9, 3.26).Flaherty lost 5-2 to the Milwaukee Brewers last Saturday, when he struck 10 and gave up three runs and five hits over six innings. This marks Flaherty's 31st start and he's 6-3 with a 1.07 ERA over his last 13 starts (going back to July 7) with opponents are hitting just .152 against him during that stretch. However, the Cards are a more modest 8-5 in that stretch plus St Louis checks in only 15-15 in all of his 2019 starts (minus-$670 at $100/game!). 

Hendricks can 'feel Flaherty's pain' as he's pitched MUCH better than his 11-9 won-loss record or 15-13 (-$237) moneyline mark. Going back to July 2, Hendricks has allowed two ERs or less in 12 of his last 14 starts. He's allowed just one ER in FIVE of his last six starts. What's more,he is 3-0 with an 0.39 ERA vs St Louis in 2019, allowing just one ER in 23 innings!

The Cards are a sub-.500 team on the road (36-38), while the Cubs, despite back-to-back losses to the Reds the last two nights, are 51-26 at Wrigley, outscoring opponents 5.29-to-3.86 RPG. The clincher? The Cubs are 6-0 at Wrigley vs the Cards in 2019, outscoring them 40-16! Cubs win! Cubs win!

Good luck...Larry

My 7* Daytime Dominator is on the Atl Braves at 12:10 ET.

The 93-60 Braves have all but locked up the NL East (current nine-game lead over the Nats gives them a "magic number" of ONE!) but they are FIVE games back of the Dodgers for the NL's best overall record with just NINE games left to the regular season. Atlanta is 60-31 since June 7 but after 5-4 and 4-1 losses the last two nights to the Phillies, the Braves enter Thursday's "getaway day game" looking to avoid being swept for the first time since late July. Philadelphia won for the third time in five contests, despite finishing with four hits and committing three errors. As I've often noted recently, Philadelphia has basically been 'stuck in neutral' since the All Star break, going 31-29.Philly is lucky to still be this close as heading into Thursday, the 78-72 Phils are in a virtual tie with the 79-73 Mets, THREE games back of the Brewers and Cubs for the NL's second wild card spot.

Thursday's pitching matchup features Aaron Nola (12-5, 3.62 ERA) and Mike Soroka (12-4, 2.57 ERA). In one sense, Nola has provided the stability Philadelphia’s rotation has lacked for much of the season, as he is tied for first in the NL in starts (32), third in in innings pitched (191.2) and sixth in strikeouts (216). However, here's another take. Nola was Philly's Opening Day starter, coming off a 17-6 (2.37 ERA) season in which the Phils went 22-11 in his starts, giving him MLB's 12th-best moneyline mark of +$983. He enters this contest 12-5 in 32 starts on the season but note that Philly is a modest 18-14 in his starts, leaving him 'under water' in the moneyline standings (-$261). Nola takes the mound this afternoon winless (0-2 / team is 0-5 ) with a 4.15 ERA over his last five starts.

Soroka allowed five HRs in just 11 innings in two starts to open September but rebounded last Friday at Washington, allowing one hit with three walks and four strikeouts in six shutout innings of a 5-0 win over Scherzer.. The 22-year-old continues building a case for Rookie of the Year honors, ranking second in the NL in ERA, tied for fifth in WAR for pitchers (5.7) and eighth in WHIP (1.09). It has to be noted that Soroka has been better on the road in 2019 (1.35 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 15 road outings), compared to a 4.18 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 12 home starts.

However, I'm "all over" Atlanta and Soroka in this one. Atlanta has not been swept in a series since falling in a two-game set to Kansas City back on July 23-24  but now enters this contest having dropped three games in a row for the first time since July 16-18. Expect Soroka (18-9 in team starts) to 'stop the bleeding,' as the Phillies wild card hopes take a HUGE 'hit.'

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET.

The Philadelphia Phillies used two infield singles and two HRs to produce a five-run 4th inning, then made it stand up for a 5-4 win last night in Atlanta. The 93-59 Braves have all but locked up the NL East (current nine-game lead over the Nats) but the loss drops them FIVE games back of the Dodgers for the NL's best overall record (Atlanta's chances of catching LA are fading quickly). As for the 77-72 Phillies, they are in a virtual tie with the 78-73 Mets, FOUR games back of the second wild card spot (Brewers and Cubs are both 82-69). The fact is, Philly is lucky to still be this close, as last night's win was just their THIRD in their last seven games. Philadelphia has basically been 'stuck in neutral' since the All Star break, going 30-29.

Zach Eflin (8-12, 4.20 ERA) and Julio Teheran (10-9, 3.50 ERA) take the mound tonight for the middle contest of this three-game series. Eflin was banished to the bullpen after losing four successive starts in July, while posting a 12.64 ERA. However, he got another shot at the rotation with Jake Arrieta undergoing season-ending elbow surgery. Eflin didn't like being demoted to the bullpen but he took responsibility. "It's ultimately not my decision," Eflin said. "If I don't like it, I should pitch better. I hadn't been really doing my job. Going to the bullpen is another opportunity for me. It's a challenge. I'm a fan of challenges." Eflin allowed just one run in 5.2 innings over four relief appearances and in five starts since returning to the rotation, has posted a 2.84 ERA.

Teheran had one of his few subpar outings this season last Thursday against the Phillies, surrendering five ERs on five hits (including three HRs) of a 9-5 loss. The 28-year-old had allowed just three ERs over 25 innings of his previous four starts, giving him a 1.08 ERA. Looking back further, Teheran's outing at Philly last Thursday was just the 4th time in his last 24 starts (going back to May 5) in which he had allowed five runs or more. In that 24-start span, he's posted a 2.94 ERA with a .215 BAA (Braves have gone 16-8 in those outings).

I sure expect a bounce-back effort by Teheran and as for Eflin, let me add that in TWO of his five recent starts, he hasn't completed four innings. Want more? In three starts against the Braves this season, Eflin is 0-3 with an 11.57 ERA, allowing 20 runs (12 earned) while lasting only 9.1 innings. His longest outing against the Braves in those three starts is 3.2 innings! Atlanta wins "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the StL Cardinals at 7:45 ET.

The Washington Nationals' lackluster September play has left the team little margin for error in its quest for a wild card spot, as the 2019 season now has less than two weeks left. Washington opened its three-game series in St Louis against the Cards last night with a 4-2 loss. Anthony Rendon hit his 34th HR but Washington was limited to four singles otherwise. Washington came to St Louis having lost THREE of four in Atlanta, won TWO of three in Minnesota and lost TWO of three at home to the Braves, in the team's previous three series. The Nats' lead over the Chicago Cubs for the first wild card was reduced to one-half game with the loss plus the Brewers lurk just ONE game back of the Cubs. St Louis got its six-game homestand off on the wrong foot by dropping TWO of three to Milwaukee over the weekend but last night's win allowed the Cards to maintain a two-game lead over the Cubs in the NL Central (Milwaukee is three back).

Patrick Corbin (12-7, 3.20 ERA) and Miles Mikolas (9-13, 4.28 ERA) will square off in tonight's second contest of the series. Corbin won double digits in victories three times with Arizona (2013, '17 & '18) and is two wins shy in 2019 of his single-season career high of 14 (2013 & 2017).Corbin logged his NL-best 22nd quality start in Thursday's 12-6 win at Minnesota, allowing three ERs on nine hits over six innings. However, a closer look at Corbin's season reveals that he's been significantly worse on the road than at home in 2019. He owns a 2.00 ERA, 0.93 ERA and .193 BAA in 14 home starts (Nats are 11-3), while pitching to a 4.45 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and .256 BAA in 16 road starts (team is 7-9).

Mikolas was an All-Star selection last season for the Cards, going 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA (Cards were 24-8 in his 32 starts, giving him an outstanding plus-$1,418 moneyline mark). However, the Cards are just 16-14 in his 2019 starts (minus-$175). Then again, Mikolas' woes have come away from Busch Stadium. The second-year pitcher owns an 'ugly' 6.80 ERA in 16 road starts (as well as a poor 1.40 WHIP and .298 BAA) but in 14 home starts, his ERA is 2.91, his WHIP is 1.01 and opponents are batting a more modest .241 against him.

Corbin's road numbers up against Mikolas' home numbers make for a strong edge to the Cards and St Louis is 30-11 at home against the Nationals since Busch Stadium III opened in 2006. More notably, St Louis is 19-6 its last 25 at home. Cards win and with the Cubs and Brewers both playing at home vs losing teams (Reds and Padres, respectively), the Nats will really start to 'sweat.'

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the StL Cards at 2:15 ET.

The St Louis Cardinals returned from the All Star break just 44-44 but except for a five-game West Coast swing in which the team went 0-5 vs the A's and Dodgers from Aug 3-7, they have been the NL Central's best team. St Louis welcomed Milwaukee to town on Friday night for an important three-game series. The Cards were 38-20 since the break, including 24-9 since that five-game skid. The Brewers came to St Louis tied with Chicago in the NL Central,  four games back of the Cards. Milwaukee posted a 19-7 record last September to erase a five-game deficit before it won the division in Game 163 and the Brewers had opened this September 9-2 and on a SEVEN-game winning streak. St Louis snapped Milwaukee's seven-game run with a 10-0 victory on Friday but Mike Moustakas and Yasmani Grandal each hit two-run HRs on Saturday, as the Brewers' 5-2 win allowed them to climb back within four games of the division-leading Cardinals, although they remain one behind the Cubs, who won Friday and Saturday,

It's the rubber match of this three-game series on Sunday, as Chase Anderson (6-4, 4.57 ERA) takes the mound against Michael Wacha (6-7, 4.97 ERA). Anderson has been consistent this season for Milwaukee but NOT in a good way. He has completed six innings only TWICE in 24 starts this season, working exactly four innings in each of his last THREE outings. A closer look reveals that while he's been solid at Miller Park (3.68 ERA / 1.08 WHIP / .212 BAA), he's had all sorts of troubles away from home. In 13 road appearances (11 starts), his ERA balloons to 5.72, his WHIP to 1.60 and his BAA to .293..

Moving over to Wacha, he is NOT the pitcher who made such a big 'spalsh' in the 2013 postseason (Cards made it to the World Series where they lost 4-2 to the Red Sox), or the one who went 17-7 (3.38 ERA) in 2015. His last win came back on July 19 (in relief), with his last win as a starter coming all the way back on June 21. However, let me note that after returning to the rotation full time on Aug 5, Wacha has pitched well except for that Aug 5 start in LA vs the Dodgers (six ERs allowed in just 3.2 innings). He enters this contest with a 3.04 ERA over his last six starts.

I see little reason NOT to think that the StL bats will continue Anderson's road woes and will add that Wacha is 1-0 with a 1.67 ERA in three starts against the Brewers this season (Cards are 2-1) and is 6-0 with a 3.62 ERA in 14 career appearances against them. Cards win this one "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Phi Phillies at 1:05 ET.

I played Bos over Philly on Saturday and noted the following in my analysis. "Scoreboard watching has become a second job for the Philadelphia Phillies but as for the Boston Red Sox, "not so much!" The defending champs come to Philly for a two-game IL series with a 77-70 record, leaving them 10 games out the the AL's second wild card spot with only 15 games left to play. Can you say 'dead in the water?'  As for the Phillies, despite being 'caught in neutral' since the All Star break (Phils are just 29-27), Philadelphia remains 'alive' in the NL wild card race at 76-70. The Nats own the No. 1 spot, 3 1/2 games ahead of the Cubs (No. 2). Milwaukee is one game back of Chicago, Philly 2 1/2 games back, the Mets three games back and we'll still list the D'backs at 4 1/2 back, but NOT for much longer (Arizona has dropped SIX straight games)."

I backed the Red Sox because of Eduardo Rodriguez and he delivered 6.2 solid innings, allowing one run. Boston won it 2-1 on a sac fly in the 9th. 76-71 Philadelphia, hoping to reach the postseason for the first time since 2011, now sits 3 1/2 games behind the Chicago Cubs for the second NL wild-card spot plus also finds themselves 'looking up' on Milwaukee (down 2 1/2 to the Brewers) and the New York Mets (just a half-game back of the Mets). Boston's win gives them a 78-70 record but leaves the Red Sox 10 games out the the AL's second wild card spot with only 14 games left to play. Boston's only role the rest of the way will be as a "spoiler."

Taking the mound for the final contest of this two-game series will be Rick Porcello (12-12, 5.83 ERA) and Jason Vargas (6-7, 4.31 ERA). Porcello has allowed six runs and two HRs over four innings in EACH of his last two starts (13.50 ERA). He is nearing the end of a nightmare campaign in which he currently has the highest ERA in the league among qualified starters. Philly hands the ball to Vargas, who was a trade-deadline acquisition from the Mets. The problem is, he is still seeking his first win since joining the Phillies, having gone 0-2 with a 5.01 ERA in eight starts (team is 3-5), giving up at least four runs in half those outings.

Yes, Philadelpha is just 4-6 in its last 10 games (29-28 since the break). After Sunday, the Phils will take to the road for a pivotal 11-game stretch, including five against the wild-card-leading Washington Nationals. However, the Phillies will NOT have to face Rodriguez today but instead draw Porcello, who has served up 30 HRs this season, the second-highest total of his career (see above for more of Porcello's 2019 woes). Vargas is in the final guaranteed season of his contract and really NEEDS to start getting in the win column. Facing a weak pitching opponent like Porcello is a plus (note: Philly is 13-7 in home days games vs righties in 2019), as is Boston's poor 20-27 (-$1,830) record against lefty starters in 2019. GREAT price here on Philly and Vargas.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (AL West) is on the Oak A's at 8:05 ET.

It's been the "Year of the Home Run" in MLB 2019 and the Oakland Athletics are "doing their part."The A's opened their three-game series at Texas against the Rangers last night with a 14-9 win while hitting five HRs. It was Oakland's fourth straight win, a stretch in which the A's have hit 14 HRs. More importantly, the victory kept them atop the race for the first wild card in the American League (A's are 88-60, the Rays 88-61 and the Twins 86-61). The Rangers were 50-42 back on July 12th (and right in the wild card chase) but Texas has steadily faded since that time and now sits 74-75, coming into tonight's game on a 24-33 stretch.

Saturday's contest is a 'battle of team aces,' as Mike Fiers (14-4, 3.97 ERA) matches up against Mike Minor (13-8, 3.08 ERA).Fiers suffered his first loss since May 1 when he gave up NINE runs and nine hits (including five HRs) in one inning of work at Houston just this past Monday. "I felt great, there's no excuse," Fiers told reporters before later wondering if he was tipping his pitches. "I just have to laugh about it. It's one of those games where you feel like they're on everything you threw." It was a truly an 'ugly' performance but doesn't Fiers deserve a 'mulligan?' Fiers notably threw a no-hitter back on May 7, beating the Reds 2-0. When he took the mound this past Monday at Houston, he had allowed three ERs or less in 21 of his 23 previous starts (streak began two starts before his no-hitter). Starting with his no-hitter, he had gone 12-0 over his previous 21 starts, with the A's going 16-4 with a suspended game (A's would win the resumption of that game).

Minor has pitched well for the so-so Rangers. He ended August by allowing 13 ERs in his final three starts (0-2 / team was 1-2), covering 19.1 innings (6.05 ERA) but he has turned things around this month by going 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA in two outings. There's catch, though. Both of those wins came on the road and Minor will take the mound tonight in Arlington, having posted a 7.00 ERA over his last five home starts.

Oakland is fighting for a playoff spot and has won 18 of its last 24 meetings with Texas. What's more, the left-handed Minor (the one with a 7.00 home ERA his last five starts) will face an Oakland lineup which is 29-12 vs lefties in 2019, including 17-8 on the road while averaging 6.67 RPG This game is a pick'em?

Good luck...Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:05 ET.

Scoreboard watching has become a second job for the Philadelphia Phillies but as for the Boston Red Sox, "not so much!" The defending champs come to Philly for a two-game IL series with a 77-70 record, leaving them 10 games out the the AL's second wild card spot with only 15 games left to play. Can you say 'dead in the water?'  As for the Phillies, despite being 'caught in neutral' since the All Star break (Phils are just 29-27), Philadelphia remains 'alive' in the NL wild card race at 76-70. The Nats own the No. 1 spot, 3 1/2 games ahead of the Cubs (No. 2). Milwaukee is one game back of Chicago, Philly 2 1/2 games back, the Mets three games back and we'll still list the D'backs at 4 1/2 back, but NOT for much longer (Arizona has dropped SIX straight games).

Saturday's pitching matchup features Eduardo Rodriguez (17-6, 3.73 ERA) and Aaron Nola (12-5, 3.70 ERA).Rodriguez had his four-game winning streak, as well as his six-start unbeaten run end Monday vs the Yankees, despite allowing just one run and five hits with nine strikeouts in six innings (Yanks would win, 5-0). The 26-year-old has emerged as the staff ace this season and enters this contest having allowed just four ERs over his last five starts, a span of 32.1 innings (That's an ERA of 1.11).

Nola was Philly's Opening Day starter, coming off a 17-6 (2.37 ERA) season in which the Phils went 22-11 in his starts, giving him MLB's 12th-best moneyline mark of +$983. He enters this contest 12-5 in 31 starts on the season but note that Philly is a modest 18-13 in his starts, leaving him 'under water' in the moneyline standings (-$143).Nola allowed four runs, six hits and four walks while striking out seven over six innings of a 7-2 loss to Atlanta on Monday and takes the mound tonight winless (0-2 / team is 0-4 ) with a 5.01 ERA over his last four starts.

Nola has been an underachiever in 2019, while Rodriguez has been the team's biggest "money-maker" for the second straight season. He was 19-4 in team starts in 2018 (+$1,387) and here in 2019, his team record is 22-8 (+$1,328), which is the No. 2 mark among all MLB starter. Sure, the Phils have something to play for but you couldn't tell it by their 29-27 record since the break. Boston is the play.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the StL Cardinals at 8:15 ET.

The St Louis Cardinals returned from the All Star break just 44-44 but except for a five-game West Coast swing in which the team went 0-5 vs the A's and Dodgers from Aug 3-7, they have been the NL Central's best team. St Louis is 38-20 since the break, including 24-9 since that five-game skid. The Cards welcome the Brewers to St Louis with a four-game lead over Milwaukee (and Chicago) in the division.Milwaukee posted a 19-7 record last September to erase a five-game deficit before it won the division in Game 163 and the Brewers have opened this September 9-2 and enter this series on a SEVEN-game winning streak.

Taking the mound for tonight's series opener will be Adrian Houser (6-5, 3.59 ERA) and Adam Wainwright (11-9, 4.16 ERA). Houser entered the 2019 season with just nine career appearances, all in relief. He's made 31 appearances this season, including 14 starts. This marks his NINTH consecutive start. Houser has allowed just one ER in SIX of his last eight starts but he's really no more than a five-inning pitcher. He takes the mound tonight off three straight no-decisions (team is 1-2), lasting only 13.1 innings. Wainwright was one of the NL's top starters from 2009-14, winning 19 or 20 games FOUR times during that stretch (note: he did not pitch at all in 2011). He was limited by injury to just eight starts in 2018 but he's making his 28th start of 2019 in this one. Wainwright has struggled all season on the road (6.03 ERA in 14 outings) but in his 13 home starts, he owns a 2.43 ERA.

Wainwright is a veteran who is well-familiar with the Brewers, posting an impressive 2.57 ERA in 34 career starts (Cards are 22-12). I'm backing the vet here in the first contest of this HUGE 3-game series, against the virtually unknown (and untested) Houser. What's more, the Brewers will play the rest of the season without last year's NL MVP, Christian Yelich (broken kneecap). Yelich leads the team in BA (.329), HRs (44) and RBI (97).

Good luck...Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Dodgers at 7:10 ET.

New York put together one of the hottest streaks in team history from July 25-Aug 10, winning 15 of 16 games to pull within a half-game of a wild-card spot (note: the Mets gained EIGHT games in the wild-card race during that span). However, the Mets lost SIX in a row from Aug 23-29, as their wild card hopes took a big hit. In fact, the Mets were four games behind the Chicago Cubs for the second wild card in the NL on Sunday, after losing for the 10th time in 15 road games. But, New York has regrouped by outscoring Arizona 26-4 during a four-game sweep Mon-Thu. Thursday's 11-1 victory moved the Mets within just TWO games of the Cubs and Milwaukee, teams significantly weakened by the respective losses of Javier Baez and Christian Yelich over the last few days. The Dodgers have no such concerns about qualifying for the playoffs, as they clinching their SEVENTH straight NL West crown on Tuesday. 95-93 Los Angeles trails the New York Yankees by two games for the best record in the majors and extended its lead over Atlanta for the best mark in the NL to four games following Thursday's 4-2 win over Baltimore.

Clayton Kershaw (13-5, 3.06 ERA) and Noah Syndergaard (10-7, 4.06 ERA) will square off Friday night at Citi Field. Kershaw was 13-2 (2.71 ERA) through his first 22 starts in 2019 (Dodgers were 18-4!) but the three-time Cy Young winner has lost THREE in a row, while posting an 'ugly' a 6.19 ERA. Kershaw is coming off a start last Friday against San Francisco, after pitching a season-low four innings Friday. The three-start losing streak is his first since June 17-27, 2015. Syndergaard has had a strange year. Here's an example. He won 7-3 at Washington on Sep 2, pitching seven scoreless innings while allowing three hits and striking out 10. However, in his previous start, he allowed 10 runs (nine earned) in just three innings of a 10-7 home loss to the Cubs. He then followed his outstanding Sep 2 effort vs the Nats, by lasting just five innings and allowing four ERs in taking a no-decision as the Mets loss at home to the Phillies on Sep 8.

Can the Mets continue their recent surge? I sure don't trust Syndergaard, who recently made waves by publicly requesting to pitch to backup catchers Tomas Nido or Rene Rivera instead of Wilson Ramos. Syndergaard's ERA fell to 5.09 ERA in 15 starts with Ramos following Sunday's loss to Philadelphia but  manager Mickey Callaway intends to stick with his starting catcher. Think this is a positive situation? Getting back to Kershaw, the Mets seem like the perfect "bounce-back" opponent, as he's 10-1 with a 2.21 ERA over 16 career starts vs the Mets (Dodgers are 14-2, an 88% winning situation).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL East) is on the Atl Braves at 7:15 ET.

Dallas Keuchel pitched six solid innings and three relievers held the lead in a 3-1 Atlanta victory Wednesday in Philadelphia. The team's 19-4 run the last 23 games has pushed Atlanta's lead to 9 1/2 games over the Washington Nationals in the NL East. As for the Phillies, they have been 'stuck in neutral' since the All Star break (28-27) but have to consider themselves lucky that they are still in the wild card hunt. At 75-70, Philadelphia is tied with the Mets (and a half-game ahead of Arizona), TWO games back of Chicago and Milwaukee (Cubs and Brewers are tied for the NL's second wild card spot).

Atlanta goes for the series win tonight, having won two of the first three games.Julio Teheran (10-8, 3.31 ERA) gets the ball for the Braves, while the Phillies counter with lefty Drew Smyly (4-6, 6.20 ERA).Teheran continued Atlanta’s recent run of excellent starting pitching by holding Washington to one run on three hits with one walk and eight strikeouts over six innings this past Saturday in a 5-4 Atlanta win. He has allowed just three ERs across 25 innings in his last four starts, giving him a 1.08 ERA and a .167 opponents batting average by allowing just 14 hits allowed in that span.

Phily picked up Smyly after Texas released him and one had to wonder why. Smyly had gone 1-5 with an 8.42 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in 13 games (nine starts) with Texas before being released,. However, the lefty signed with the Phillies on July 21 and is 3-1 with a 3.93 ERA in nine starts (team is 7-2). Smyly has pitched VERY well in two September starts, allowing just one run on eight hits with 14 strikeouts over 12.1 innings (0.73 ERA) while beating Cincinnati and the New York Mets.

Looking a little closer at Smyly's record with Philly and one sees that the team is 5-0 in his road starts (2.60 ERA) but 2-2 in his home starts (5.56 ERA). That hardly bodes well against an Atlanta team which is 16-7 vs lefties in night games this season, including 8-3 on the road. Meanwhile, Atlanta has won 16 of Teheran's last 23 starts, giving him a 19-11 record in team starts on the season (+$702 moneyline mark ranks 15th-best). While he's pitched slightly better at home on the season, let me note that in his last FIVE road starts (going back to June 29), he's posted a 2.17 ERA. The Braves have safely put away the NL East title but the team's recent hot steak has them just THREE game back of the Dodgers for the NL's best record (and homefield advantage). Atlanta wins AGAIN!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Arz D'backs at 1:10 ET.

The Arizona Diamondbacks won 11 of 12 contests from Aug 25-Sep 7, jumping to the front of the line in a long list of contenders chasing the last wild card in the National League. However, after last night's 9-0 loss at Citi Field, Arizona has suddenly dropped the first three of this four-game series with the Mets, as well as FOUR in a row, overall. The Mets can relate. New York put together one of the hottest streaks in team history from July 25-Aug 10, winning 15 of 16 games to pull within a half-game of a wild-card spot (note: the Mets gained EIGHT games in the wild-card race during that span). However, the Mets are just 13-14 since Aug 11. Here's how the wild card standings look as of this morning. The Nats own the No. 1 spot by 3 1/2 games over the Cubs and Brewers, who are tied for the No. 2 spot. Chicago and Milwaukee are two games up on Philadelphia and New York, with Arizona 2 1/2 games back.

The Mets go for the four-game home sweep, as Arizona sends rookie Alex Young (7-3, 3.38 ERA) to the mound up against New York's Marcus Stroman (7-13, 3.42 ERA). Young posted a franchise rookie record with 12 strikeouts while scattering two hits over eight innings in Saturday's 2-0 win versus Cincinnati. The D'backs haven't won since! Young has been great for Arizona and he's thrived on the road. His ERA of 2.29 is more than two full runs lower than his home ERA (4.60), plus his road WHIP is .096 and BAA checks in at .194. The Mets were thrilled to trade for Stroman before the trade deadline but he's been a disappointment. The Mets did win his first four starts with the Mets but he pitched a modest 19.2 innings in those four outings, while posting a 5.1`2 ERA. However, his so-so pitching  (I'm being VERY kind here) has caught up to him, as the Mets have lost his last three starts (6.43 ERA).

Young has never opposed the Mets, while Stroman is 1-1 with a 4.61 ERA in just two career starts against the Diamondbacks. "Big game" for both teams, as time is clearly running out and there is room for just ONE of five teams in this battle for the second wild card spot. I want the red-hot rookie, over the struggling veteran, as the D'backs avoid the four-game sweep.

Good luck..Larry

My 7* Pitching Mismatch is on the Cin Reds at 10:10 ET.

The Seattle Mariners opened September with an 11-3 win at Texas, before losing the final SIX contests of their 2-8 road trip. Seattle began its six-game homestand on Tuesday by ending that six-game losing streak,when Kyle Seager hit a two-run HR in the eighth inning to give the Mariners a 4-3 win. Kyle Lewis hit a solo shot in his major-league debut and Dylan Moore also went homered, as THREE of the Mariners' four hits were home runs. Tuesday marked the first contest of a nine-game road trip for the Reds, who fell to 27-43 on the road in 2019.

Wednesday's pitching matchup features Sonny Gray (10-6, 2.75 ERA) and Marco Gonzales (14-11, 4.37 ERA). Gray struggled during his 1 1/2-year tenure with the New York Yankees but after a very poor start with the Reds (0-4 with a 4.15 ERA over his first NINE starts of 2019 with the Reds going 3-6), he's reverted back to the form he displayed with Oakland that made him one of MLB's most promising pitchers. Gray is 10-2 over his last 19 starts (Reds are 15-4), allowing three ERs or less in 17 of those starts. He posted an 0.74 ERA in six August starts and then allowed one ER over six innings of a 4-3 win in his first start of September. Gonzales has done a credible job pitching for the sad-sack Mariners, but he has been ineffective since recording his career-high 14th victory back on Aug 25. He's surrendered 11 runs (nine earned) on 14 hits over just 11 innings in his last two starts (7.36 ERA).

Gray is just 'ON FIRE' and he has an strong history against the Mariners (remember, he started with the A's), posting a 2.71 ERA in 11 career starts. Gonzales is in "over his head" here and it hardly helps that he's pitching for a team which hasn't posted consecutive wins in THREE weeks (since Aug 17-20).

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chi Cubs at 10:10 ET.

Kris Bryant hit a pair of two-run HRs and Jason Heyward also homered twice and drove in three runs for the Cubs, who rallied from a 6-2 deficit in the third inning to tie it at 8-all in the 8th inning. However, with the bases load in the bottom of the 10th, the Cubs gave up a four-pitch walk which allowed the Padres to win 9-8. The loss followed a 10-2 Chicago win on Monday. The Cubs' fourth loss in their last five games cut into their lead in the race for the National League's second wild card. Milwaukee is just one game back, Philadelphia is two games behind Chicago plus  Arizona is  2 1/2 games back playing at New York (Mets are three games back!). As for the 67-77 Padres, they will finish with a losing record for the NINTH straight season.

Tonight's pitching matchup features veteran Cole Hamels (7-6. 3.95 ERA) and rookie Chris Paddack (8-7, 3.54 ERA). Hamels left his June 28 start after one inningbecause of a strained left oblique. He owned a 2.98 ERA over 17 appearances at the time. He would miss FIVE weeks and in seven starts since returning to the rotation, he 1-3 with a 7.12 ERA (Cubs are 3-4). Paddack started strong in 2019, going 4-2 with a 1.93 ERA thru May 20 (San Diego was 7-2 in his nine starts). However, the season would take a toll on the 23-year-old, who won just THREE times in his next 13 starts. However, he has rebounded in his last two starts, allowing just one run on nine hits while registering 16 strikeouts over 12.1 innings in a win over San Francisco a no-decision against Arizona.

Yes, the Cubs have struggled all season on the road (just 30-43) but Chicago is still "right in" the wild card race. Chicago hitters have battered San Diehgo pitchers for 18 runs on 24 hits in the first two games of this series and I wouldn't want to be Paddack in this one. As for Hamels, the veteran (and former World Series MVP) knows more than just a little about pitching in big games. He's got an outstanding 9-2 (2.45 ERA) in 18 career starts against the Padres, with his teams going 14-4. What's more, Hamels grew up 25 miles away from Petco Park and has thrived in his returns to his hometown ballpark, where he is 5-1 with a 2.01 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in nine outings at the downtown San Diego stadium. Cubs win! Cubs win!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET.

The Arizona Diamondbacks won 11 of 12 contests from Aug 25-Sep 7, jumping to the front of the line in a long list of contenders chasing the last wild card in the National League. However, after last night's 3-2 loss at Citi Field, Arizona has suddenly dropped THREE in a row. The Mets, who are responsible for Arizona's last two losses, can relate. New York put together one of the hottest streaks in team history from July 25-Aug 10, winning 15 of 16 games to pull within a half-game of a wild-card spot (note: the Mets gained EIGHT games in the wild-card race during that span). However, the Mets are just 12-14 since Aug 11. Here's how the wild card standings look as of this morning. The Nats own the No. 1 spot by 2 1/2 games and the Cubs the No. 2 spot, one game up on Milwaukee, two up on Philadelphia,  2 1/2 up on Arizona and three up on New York.

The third contest of this critical four-game series features a pair of lefty starters, Robbie Ray (12-7, 4.03 ERA) and Steven Matz (9-8, 4.00 ERA). Ray went just 13-27 in his first two seasons with Arizona (2015 & '16) but then went 15-5 (2.89 ERA) in 2017, as Arizona went 20-8 (+$1,166) in all his starts (3rd-best ML mark that season). However, he was just 6-2 over 24 starts in 2018, as Arizona went 11-13. Ray has been up and down in 2018 plus Ray missed 10 days with a back injury in August. He was removed from his most recent outing (allowed 3 ERs in 4.1 innings on Sep 6) with a blister on his left middle finger. Reportedly, he's fine (we'll see). We do know that he owns 2-0 record with an 0.82 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in four career starts against the Mets (teams are 3-1).

Matz suffered through a brutal June, as the Mets lost FIVE of his six starts (76.36 ERA). He was sent to the bullpen (and made two relief appearances) to open July but returned to the rotation after the All Star break. He's been excellent save ONE start, since. Matz has allowed two ERs or less in NINE of his 10 second-half starts, including allowing just six ERs over 33.2 innings (1.60 ERA) in five home starts in that stretch. That's mirrors what been the case for Matz' 2019 season. He owns a 6.08 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and .291 BAA in road games in 2019 but a 2.11 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .228 BAA in home games.

I had the Mets last night and "the situation" is just right for them to win again, tonight!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET.

The Mets put together one of the hottest streaks in team history from July 25-Aug 10, winning 15 of 16 games to pull within a half-game of a wild-card spot. The Mets gained EIGHT games in the wild-card race during that span. However, the Mets opened a four-game home series with the D'backs last night just 11-14 since Aug 11. As for Arizona, when the the Diamondbacks traded Zack Greinke at "the last second," it was assumed that the team had "given up" on the 2019 season. A 3-7 stretch from Aug 14-24 seemed to confirm that premise but all of a sudden, the D'backs had "come alive," with 11 wins in their last 13 games after that 3-7 slump. New York rookie Pete Alonso hit a pair of solo HRs last night (he leads all of MLB with 47) as the Mets took the series opener, 3-1. It was just New York's SIXTH victory in its last 16 contests, while Arizona has now dropped back-to-back outings after winning five in a row and 11 of its previous 12. The wild card standings look like this. The Nats own the No. 1 spot and the Cubs the No. 2 spot, two games up on Milwaukee, 2 1/2 up on Arizona, three up on Philadelphia and four up on New York.

Zac Gallen (3-4, 2.50 ERA) will take the mound tonight for the D'backs, opposed by the Mets' Zack Wheeler (10-7, 4.33 ERA). Gallen lost a no-hit bid in the seventh inning and exited after allowing just that single over seven scoreless innings last Wednesday in a 4-1 victory against San Diego. The 24-year-old is 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA in six starts since being acquired from Miami (D'backs are 5-1). Gallen didn't factor into the decision in his only start against the Mets back on July 13, when, as a member of the Miami Marlins, he allowed two runs over five innings in Miami's 4-2 loss.

Many expected Wheeler to be moved at the trade deadline but that didn't happen. He responded by delivering 15 consecutive scoreless innings in back-to-back 4-0 and 5-0 wins to open August. Wheeler allowed just one run in five innings of an 8-4 win at Washington on Wednesday, improving to 4-1 with a 3.42 ERA in eight starts since coming off the injured list in late July. The Mets are 6-2 in those eight starts, as he's allowed three ERs or less in all six of those team wins (note: both losses came against the Braves!).

There's nothing bad to say about Gallen's efforts since coming to Arizona but there could be a "let down" off his terrific last outing (see above for a reminder). As for Wheeler, since coming off the DL he's NOT been up to the challenge of pitching against the Braves (11 IP / 18 hits / 10 ERs / 8.18 ERA) but in his other six starts, he's posted a 1.98 ERA. Wheeler's had good success vs Arizona in his career, going 3-1 with a 2.82 ERA in six starts (Mets are 4-2). Situation is "just right" to play the Mets!

Good luck...Larry

My 7* Weekly Wipeout is on the SF Giants at 9:45 ET.

The 2019 MLB regular season has just THREE weeks left and the 69-74 Giants not only need to make up 7 1/2 games in order to earn the second wild-card playoff berth in the National League but in order to do so, they would need to pass FIVE other teams. The 62-81 Pirates have no such concerns, as their 7-38 start out of the All Star break took them out of any wild card aspirations by August (currently sit 14 1/2 games  back).  However, the teams open a four-game series tonight in San Francisco with something in common. Both Pittsburgh and San Francisco each recorded a total of just ONE run over the weekend. The Pirates lost 10-1 to the Cardinals on Saturday, and then managed only five hits in a 2-0 setback on Sunday.The Giants eked out a 1-0 victory over the LA Dodgers on Saturday, before getting blanked 5-0 in the finale of that three-game series on Sunday.

Monday's pitching matchup will feature Trevor Williams (7-6, 5.16 ERA) and Madison Bumgarner (9-8, 3.81 ERA). The Pirates won Williams' first FOUR starts (2.59 ERA) but he enters this start of 2019 with a 5.16 ERA and a .282 BAA..However, Williams posted his third consecutive quality start by allowing two ERs in six innings of Pittsburgh's 6-5 win over Miami this past Wednesday. He has 12 strikeouts against two walks while allowing just one HR during this solid three-start stretch (he's 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA / team is 3-0).

As for Bumgarner, after a 1-4 (4.30 ERA) start through six outings (team was just 1-5), the three-time World Series champ has seen the Giants go 18-6 in his last 24 starts, as he allowed three ERs or less 18 times. The Giants won Bumgarner's last start 9-8 but he pitched poorly at St Louis, allowing six ERs over five innings. Here's the bottom line with him in 2019. He's got a 5.06 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and .280 BAA on the road but a 2.83 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and .213 BAA at home.

The Giants postseason hopes may be all but 'dead,' but Bumgarner has been a steady money-maker since the beginning of May (see above). That's the bet!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:10 ET.

The Red Sox bested the Yankees 6-1 on Friday (beating NY ace German) but the Yankees won 5-1 on Saturday and then again 10-5 last night on ESPN, homering THREE times. New York now has 268 HRs in 2019, eclipsing the team single-season home run record it set just last year. The Yankees look to win win their fifth consecutive series by taking tonight's series finale (New York hasn't lost a series since being swept in Oakland from Aug.20-22.). The Yankees are 94-50, tied with the Astros for the AL's best record, with both teams ahead of the NL's 93-52 Dodgers (by 1 1/2 games) for MLB's best overall record. The defending champion Red Sox are 76-67 and with just 19 games remaining, are all but eliminated from serious wild card consideration (sit EIGHT games back of the second wild card spot).

It's a 'battle' of red-hot lefties tonight in Fenway, as James Paxton (12-6, 4.16 ERA) and Eduardo Rodriguez (17-5, 3.81 ERA square off. Paxton's last start in Fenway came back on July 26, when he was ripped for seven ERs in just four innings of a 10-5 loss. A the time, he was 5-6 with a 4.72 ERA. However, he hasn't lost since, winning SEVEN consecutive starts to match the career-high victory total he registered in 2017 with Seattle (12-5, 2.98 ERA). Paxton is coming off an outstanding outing against Texas on Tuesday in which he allowed one hit and one walk while recording a season high-tying 12 strikeouts over seven scoreless innings of a 10-1 win. He's got a 2.98 ERA in his seven-game winning streak and he's 4-1 with a 3.32 ERA in seven career starts against the Red Sox (teams are 5-2).

Rodriguez is also coming off a scoreless effort, a seven-inning 6-2 victory over Minnesota on Wednesday in which he scattered five hits and issued four walks while registering eight strikeouts en route to extending his winning streak to four starts. Rodriguezlast lost opposite Paxton on Aug 2, when he surrendered four runs on five hits and a season-high six walks in 6.2 frames of 4-2 New York win. That defeat dropped Rodriguez to 6-5 with a 4.03 ERA in 17 career games (15 starts / teams are 8-7) vs New York.

Yes, Boston is basically done for the season but this contest marks its FINAL game of 2019 against the hated Yankees. In a year in which Sale has imploded and Price has been on and off the DL, Rodriguez has become Boston's 'ace.' Undoubtedly, he's been the team's biggest "money-maker" for the second straight season. He was 19-4 in team starts in 2018 (+$1,387) and here in 2019, his team record is 22-7 (+$1,428), which is the No. 1 mark among starters. Rodriguez is 8-1 in 14 Fenway starts, with Boston going 12-2. This is his "playoff game" and I'm betting he delivers the "W!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the Was Nats at 1:20 ET.

Washington Nationals lost their FIFTH straight game back on May 23 and sat 19-31. However, the Nats then went on a 56-27 run to get them withing 'shouting distance' of the Braves in the NL East plus put them in prime position in the NL wild card race. However, the Nats opened the week by dropping TWO of three to the Mets in Washington and they now have lost the first three of a four-game series in Atlanta against the Braves. Atlanta's 5-4 win on Saturday marked a season-best NINTH straight, while the Braves also set a modern-day franchise mark with their 13th consecutive home victory. The 89-54 Braves now lead the 78-63 Nats by 10 games in the division and their magic number to clinch the NL East is 11. The Nationals still own the No. 1 wild card spot but their margin over the Cubs is just two games, while the Nats are only 3 1/2 games clear of the NL playoff 'cut line!'

Max Scherzer (9-5, 2.60 ERA) takes the mound for Washington and Mike Soroka (11-3, 2.53 ERA) for Atlanta. Scherzer originally hit the IL on July 13 before returning to pitch against the Rockies on July 25, allowing three runs in five innings and throwing a season-low 86 pitches. Four days later, Scherzer landed on the IL again, where he remained until returning on August  22. He was 9-5 with a 2.41 ERA through 20 starts at that time, with 189 strikeouts in 134.1 innings. However, the Nats had gone 0-5 in his six no-decisions, leaving him 9-11 in team starts, minus-$1,089 against the moneyline. Scherzer was limited in his first two starts after missing almost a month with a back injury, allowing three ERs on 10 hits over 8.1 innings (3.24 ERA) in two no-decisions The good news for Scherzer was that the Nats won BOTH of those contests. Scherzer's third start back was Tuesday against the Mets, when he gave up four runs on five hits with one walk and seven strikeouts in six innings. However, there was good news, as he reached 90 pitches.

Soroka's had quite a rookie season, as his 2.53 ERA is third-best in MLB and the Braves have gone 17-8 in his starts. Looking closer, we find that while's he's been terrific on the road, he's has problems here at SunTrust Park. Soroka owns a 1.44 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and .203 BAA on the road, while his ERA balloons to 4.02 at home, with his WHIP climbing to 1.32 and his BAA a to .275. The Braves are due to lose sometime and I think this is the perfect spot. True, they've won the first three games of this series but the scores have been 4-2, 4-3 and 5-4. The Nats have made a terrific turnaround in 2019 but it's "slipping away." They enter on a four-game slide, the team's longest since Washington lost FIVE in a row May 19-23, leaving them 19-31 on the season (see above). Scherzer is a true ace and "gets the job done against a rookie struggling in his home park.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Pitch-Perfect Play is on the Cin Reds at 1:10 ET.

When the the Arizona Diamondbacks traded Zack Greinke at "the last second," it was assumed that the team had "given up" on the 2019 season. A 3-7 stretch from Aug 14-24 seemed to confirm that premise but all of a sudden, the D'backs have "come alive." Arizona began this week with a three-game home sweep of the Padres and have then opened a seven-game road trip with wins in the first two of a three-game series this weekend in Cincinnati. 75-67 Arizona now looks to finish off a road sweep of the Reds on Sunday afternoon, having won FIVE in a row and 11 of their last 12 contests to move within 1 1/2 games of the Chicago Cubs for the NL’s second wild card. The 66-77 Reds are 'buried' in the NL wild card race (11 games back) and the team's only role the rest of September will be as a "spoiler."

Arizona sends Mike Leake (11-10, 4.71 ERA) to the mound, while Cincy counters with Anthony DeSclafani (9-8, 4.10 ERA).Leake has earned victories in his last two starts, allowing six ERs over 13.2 innings (3.95 ERA). However, he was winless in his first four outings (0-2 / team was 1-3 / Leake's ERA was an 'ugly' 8.02) with Arizona, after going 9-8 in 22 starts (Mariners were 11-11) with a 4.27 ERA while with Seattle. I'm not quite sure what Arizona thought it was getting with Leake? DeSclafani gave up just three hits in seven innings (with 8 Ks) against Philadelphia on Monday but two of the three hits were HRs, as he took the 7-1 loss (he allowed four ERs). That game followed him allowing just two ERs in his previous three starts over innings 18 innings (1.00 ERA and 20 Ks). The 29-year-old has 147 strikeouts over 142.2 innings on the season but has served up a career-most 27 HRs in 27 starts this season.

Here's the rub. No doubt Arizona is on a roll but why trust Leake and his 4.71 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and .290 BAA on the entire season? In his six starts with Arizona, his ERA is 6.423, his WHIP is 1.54 and his BAA against is .338 Want more? Yes, he hasn't faced the Reds since pitching for St Louis in 2017 but he's is 0-5 with a 4.75 ERA in eight career starts against them, with his teams going 0-8 (that's a 100% "go-against!). DeScalfani is good enough to help Cincy avoid the sweep here!

Good luck...Larry

My 7* Weekly Wipeout is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET.

The Philadelphia Phillies ended last weekend with a Sunday victory against the New York Mets and then extended their winning streak to three games with a pair of lopsided victories at Cincinnati Monday and Tuesday. However, the tables quickly turned, as the Reds bested the Phils 8-5 on Wednesday and then 4-3 (11 inn.) on Thursday afternoon, as Philly had to settle for a four-game split versus the Reds. The 72-67 Phillies are now FOUR games back of the second wild card spot in the NL and find the D'backs a half-game closer to the Cubs than they are. Philadelphia comes to Citi Field for a three-game series with the Mets, who after taking TWO of three at Washington, are 71-68 and tied with the Brewers. Both teams are just ONE game back of the Phillies but are FIVE back of the Cubs

Zach Eflin (8-11, 4.33 ERA) will get the ball for Philly, opposed by the Mets' Steven Matz (9-8. 4.04 ERA). Eflin was banished to the bullpen after losing four successive starts in July, while posting a 12.64 ERA. However, he got another shot at the rotation with Jake Arrieta undergoing season-ending elbow surgery. Eflin turned in his best start in nearly three months this past Sunday night, allowing one run on three hits in seven innings of a no-decision against the Mets (Phils avoided a three-game sweep with a 5-2 win). Matz improved to 4-2 with a 2.73 ERA in nine starts since returning to the rotation right after the All Star break. Here's the deal with Matz in 2019. He's been awful on the  road (6.08 ERA / 1.56 WHIP / .291 BAA) and very good at home (2.01 ERA / 1.06 WHIP / .224 BAA).

The Phillies have been 'stuck in neutral' since the All Star break (just 25-24), while the Mets are 25-12 in their last 37 games, although just 4-8 in their last 12.That said, the Mets showed everyone something in Wednesday's 8-4 afternoon win at Washington, after they had lost the night before when they blew a SIX-run lead in the ninth inning! Mets take this one "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Arz D'backs at 7:10 ET.

When the the Arizona Diamondbacks traded Zack Greinke at "the last second," it was assumed that the team had "given up" on the 2019 season. A 3-7 stretch from Aug 14-24 seemed to confirm that premise but all of a sudden, the D'backs have "come alive." Wednesday's 4-1 victory over San Diego completed a three-game sweep of San Diego and the D'backs open a seven-game road tripwith NINE wins in their last 10 contests. Arizona begins it trip with three-games this weekend in Cincinnati against the Reds.The 66-75  Reds are buried' in the NL wild card race (11 games back) but did Arizona a favor by winning its second straight contest on Thursday (4-3 in 11 innings) against the Phillies, to salvage a four-game split with wild-card hopeful Philadelphia. The 73-67 D-backs are now a half-game ahead of the Philllies, trailing the Cubs by 3 1/2 games in the 'battle' for the NL's second wild card spot.

Taking the mound Friday night will be Robbie Ray (12-7, 3.97 ERA) and Tyler Mahle (2-10, 4.72 ERA). Ray missed 10 days with a back injury, but returned Aug 25 at Milwaukee to earn a 5-2 win (pitched a scoreless five innings). However, he struggled in his second start since this past Saturday at home vs the Dodgers. He allowed four runs on eight hits in five innings but was able to claim a win in Arizona's 6-5 victory. Ray is 7-1 in 10 starts since the start of July, with the D'backs winning EIGHT of the 10.

Mahle made his first big-league start since July 19 last Sunday at St Louis. He was placed on the DL after that July 19 start. He returned Sunday (after making three minor league starts) with the team having gone 4-15 in his 19 previous starts this season and his minus-$1,038 moneyline mark was the third-worst among all starters. In particular, he was 0-8 with a 5.58 ERA and .300 BAA in 11 road starts, with the Reds going 0-11. Surprisingly, Mahle allowed just one ER on two hits in 6.1 innings on Sunday at St Louis. He left with a 3-1 lead but the bullpen gave up single runs in each of the last three innings and the Cardinals won 4-3. And so it goes for him...Reds are 4-16 in his 20 starts, giving him MLB's 3rd-worst moneyline mark (-$1,138)

Mahle has been better here at home but the fact remains that he is in search of his first win since May 31, having gone 0-5 with a 5.32 ERA in his past nine starts (Reds are 1-8 in those starts). As noted above, Ray comes in pitching well since the start of July and he's fared better on the road than at Chase Field, limiting the opposition to a .228 BAA away from home. The Diamondbacks averaged 7.8 runs in Ray's five August starts and expect Arizona to make it 10 wins in its last 11 here against the Reds and the "not ready for primetime" Mahle.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:10 ET.

The Minnesota Twins held an 11 1/2 game lead in the AL Central in early June but the Indians caught and passed them by July 24th. However, the Twins are again pulling away in the AL Central. Surging Minnesota has won NINE of 10 to open a 6 1/2-game over the Indians, losers of four of their last five. Minnesota had built a six-run lead last night but had to hold on for a 6-5 victory last night at Fenway, keeping the Red Sox 5 1/2 games out of the second wild card spot in the AL.

The three-game series continues tonight with Jose Berríos (11-7, 3.57 ERA) taking on Eduardo Rodriguez (16-5, 3.97 ERA). Many consider Berrios to be Minnesota's ace but he just earned his first victory in nearly a month last Thursday with a quality start at the Chicago White Sox, striking out eight and giving up three runs seven hits over six innings in a 10-5 win. That outing ended an awful four-start stretch from Aug 6-23 in which he allowed 20 ERs on 32 hits (including six HRs over 21.1 innings (Berrios went 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA and the Twins lost three of the four).

With Sale and Price hurt (both have been HUGE underachievers in 2019, as well), Rodriguez has been a staff mainstay. Rodriguez labored at Colorado last Wednesday but won his third straight start despite lasting only five innings and allowing three runs on nine hits over five innings (Boston won 7-4). Rodriguez has been Boston's biggest money-maker for the SECOND straight year. He was 19-4 in team starts in 2018 (+$1,387) and here in 2019, his team record is 21-7 (+$1,328), which is the second-best mark among starters.

The defending champs are clearly 'on the ropes,' 5 1/2 games out of the second wild card spot with just 22 games remaining. Boston has two more games with Minnesota here and then hosts the Yankees for four games at Fenway Fri-Sun (doubleheader set for Sat). The Red Sox almost have to win FOUR of those six to have any chance of staying in the wild card chase. Yes, Boston is only 34-35 at home but the Red Sox are averaging 5.93 RPG at Fenway. NEEDING a win, it's best to have your biggest "money-maker" on the mound. That's the case here for Boston.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Was Nationals at 1:05 ET.

The Mets put together one of the hottest streaks in team history from July 25-Aug 10, winning 15 of 16 games to pull within a half-game of a wild-card spot. The Mets gained EIGHT games in the wild-card race during that span . However, after last night's almost unbelievable 11-10 loss, the Mets are just 9-12 since Aug 11 (3-8 their last 11), leaving them FIVE games back of the NL's second wild card spot (THREE teams are between them and the Cubs). I'm sure most have heard about Tuesday's Mets/Nats game. For those who haven't, here's what STATS reported. Washington is the first team to allow five or more runs in the top of the ninth and get even more in the bottom of the inning for a walk-off win since the Red Sox back on June 18, 1962, against the Washington Senators. Mets manager Mickey Callaway lifted reliever Seth Lugo after he pitched a perfect eighth inning. Lugo routinely gets six outs per outing, but Callaway thought the lead was safe enough to go deeper into the bullpen. OOOPS! The Washington Nationals own MLB's best record since the team sat 19-31 after 50 games. Washington managed just three hits and no runs through the first eight innings of its series opening 7-3 Labor Day loss against the visiting NY Mets but rebounded with 11 runs on 15 hits last night.

The rubber match of the three-game series goes Wednesday afternoon with Zack Wheeler (9-7, 4.41 ERA) taking on Anibal Sanchez (8-6, 3.80 ERA). Wheeler settled for a third straight no-decision on Friday despite allowing only one over six innings at Philadelphia (Mets won 11-5). Wheeler is well thought of but he remains nothing more than a .500 pitcher. The 29-year-old is 0-2 with a 7.94 ERA in four starts against the Nationals this season (team is 1-3) and enters this contest 4-10 with a 5.17 ERA in 17 career starts against Washington (Mets are 6-11).

Sanchez was a pleasant surprise last season after signing with Atlanta during spring training, going 7-6 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. However, he signed a two-year deal in the off-season with Washington. Sanchez opened 0-6 with a 5.10 ERA through nine starts (team was 3-6). He suffered a left hamstring strain in May that cost him 10 days on the injured list and he missed one start. However, he's returned to the rotation to help fuel Washington's recent surge. He's unbeaten in his last 16 starts, going 8-0 (3.21 ERA) with the Nats going 11-5. Sanchez has allowed three ERs or less in 13 of those 16 starts. Sanchez had a rare poor start on Aug 17 but has bounced back strong in his last two, allowing just four hits and three ERs over 13.1 innings (2.03 ERA).

One wonders just how the slumping Mets can regroup so quickly after last night's crushing loss. As for the Nats, they are 59-28 (.678) since that 19-31 start and will enter this contest having won 20 of their last 26 games. Expect Washington to ride the positive 'mojo' of that seven-run ninth inning into Wednesday afternoon's series finale against the visiting Mets, as Sanchez stays unbeaten through 17 starts. The Nats win again and drive another 'stake' into New York's ' playoff heart.'

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Division Dominator (NL East) is on the Was Nationals at 7:05 ET.

Washington Nationals own MLB's best record since the team sat 19-31 after 50 games. However, Washington managed just three hits and no runs through the first eight innings of its series opening 7-3 Labor Day loss against the visiting NY Mets. Washington's 7-3 loss ended the team's four-game winning streak in which the Nats had scored 31 times (7.75 RPG). For the Mets, they won for just the THIRD time in 10 contests and find themselves tied with the 70-67 Brewers, a half-game back of Arizona, 1 1/2 games back of Philadelphia and most importantly, FOUR games back of the Cubs (owners of the NL's second wild card spot).

The middle game of this three-games series tonight will feature a pitching matchup of Jacob deGrom (8-8, 2.66 ERA) and Max Scherzer (9-5, 2.46 ERA). Jacob deGrom won last year's NL Cy young award, while Max Scherzer was the 2016 and 2017 Cy Young winner in the NL. DeGrom won last year's award despite going just 10-9 (1.70 ERA / 0.91 WHIP / .196 BAA). It's been a second straight year of excellent pitching numbers for deGrom (1.02 WHIP and .214 BAA) but again, he's just 8-8 and more importantly, the Mets are 10-17 in his starts, as his moneyline mark of minus-$1,829 is the SECOND-worst among all starters in 2019. DeGrom saw his nine-game unbeaten streak end this past Thursday when he allowed four runs on five hits over seven innings of a 4-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs. That said, while deGrom may have been unbeaten in that nine-game stretch (from July 5-Aug 23) with a 1.22 ERA, the Mets were just 5-4 in that span.

Scherzer's had similar problems to deGrom in 2019, pitching well but lacking run support. Scherzer originally hit the IL on July 13 before returning to pitch against the Rockies on July 25, allowing three runs in five innings and throwing a season-low 86 pitches. Four days later, Scherzer again landed on the IL again, where he remained until returning on August 22. He was 9-5 with a 2.41 ERA through 20 starts at that time, with 189 strikeouts in 134.1 innings. However, the Nats had gone 0-5 in his six no-decisions, leaving him 9-11 in team starts, minus-$1,089 against the moneyline. Scherzer has been limited in his first two starts after missing almost a month with a back injury, allowing three ERs on 10 hits over 8.1 innings (3.24 ERA) in two no-decisions The good news for Scherzer was that the Nats won BOTH of those contests.

So what we have here is two of MLB's best pitchers who have pitched in "hard-luck" for most of the season (for deGrom, it's been two straight years). However, the edge goes to the Nats, who are 58-28 (.674) since May 24. In contrast, we have the Mets. They put together one of the hottest streaks in team history from July 25-Aug 10, winning 15 of 16 games to pull within a half-game of a wild-card spot on. The Mets gained EIGHT games in the wild-card race during that span. However, the Mets are just 9-11 since Aug 11 (3-7 their last 10) and I'll back Scherzer and the Nats in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Phi Phillies at 6:40 ET.

The Philadelphia Phillies are running out of time in the wild card race. The Phiilies has been pretty much 'caught in neutral' since the All Star break, as after Monday's 7-1 series-opening triumph over the Reds, the team is 24-22 since the break. Philly's71-65 record has them 2 1/2 games back of the Cubs for the NL's second wild card spot with Arizona lurking one game behind them plus the Brewers and Mets sitting 1 1/2 games back of the Phils. Not surprisingly, Cincinnati did little offensively in Monday's 7-1 setback, after playing back-to-back doubleheaders Saturday and Sunday in St Louis. As September opens, the 64-74 Reds are pretty much regulated to playing "spoiler," as they are in fourth-place in the division, 13 1/2 games back of the Cardinals and also sit 10 games back of the NL's second wild-card spot.

The second contest of the four-game series goes tonight, as Vince Velasquez (6-7, 4.86 ERA) squares off against Lucas Sims (2-1, 4.99 ERA). Velasquez gave up two runs on five hits in five innings this past Wednesday against the visiting Pirates and earned the win in the 12-3 victory. In his previous start on Aug 23, the Miami Marlins chased him after just 2.1 innings but he escaped with a no-decision in a 19-11 loss. However, that Aug 23 start was an outlier for Velasquez as of late, as he has allowed three ERs or less in SIX of his last seven starts. Velasquez owns a 3.27 ERA in those six starts, with the Phillies going 4-2. Velasquez has made just one career starts vs Cincy, having faced the Reds twice in relief this season, throwing 2.1 scoreless innings.

Alex Wood was scratched Monday for this start, due to a re-occurrence of his back issue. The start will instead go to Sims. It will be his 18th appearance of 2019 but only his third start. His last start came back on July 24th and in his two starts of 2019, he's pitched 12 innings while allowing nine ERs (6.75 ERA). Sims was a former first-round pick but this will be a tough spot for him, as he threw 36 pitches in relief this past Saturday in St Louis. The Reds have lost FIVE of six and this contest marks the team's SIXTH game in the last four days!

This is a HUGE series for the Phillies, as they will NEED to take at least THREE of four in Cincy vs the Reds (a sweep would be more like it), Philadelphia heads to New York for a three-game weekend series against the Mets, then returns home for six games against Atlanta (four) and Boston (two). After that, it's 11-game road trip to Atlanta, Cleveland and Washington. Not sure the Phils can survive that stretch but for tonight, I'm "all over them."

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Pitch-Perfect Play is on the StL Cardinals at 1:05 ET.

The St Louis Cardinals entered the All Star break at 44-44, leaving them 3 1/2 games behind the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central. However, the Cards would go 12-3 to open the second half. They regained a share of first place on July 25 and stayed there until Aug 2, when a five-game losing streak on a West Coast swing (Aug 3-7) saw them fall four games back on Aug 8. However, the Cards welcomed the Reds to St Louis this weekend for a four-game series, having won 15 their last 19 contests. The Reds came to town after taking three of four in Miami but note that the Marlins are the NL's worst team. The Reds entered the series at 63-70 Reds and at best, can play "spoiler," the rest of the way.

Friday's game was rained out, meaning the teams would play back-to-back doubleheaders Saturday and Sunday. St Louis cruised to a 10-6 triumph in Saturday's first game and then rallied for two runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to steal the nightcap 3-2. The 75-59 Cards are now 2 1/2 games up on the Cubs for the division lead, while the Reds are 63-72 and as noted above, 'done' for the month of September. It's another doubleheader today, with Tyler Mahle (2-10, 4.93 ERA) and Miles Mikolas (8-13, 4.32 ERA) squaring off in Game 1.

Mahle will be making his first big-league since July 19 when he gave up four runs in 5.1 innings in a no-decision against the Cardinals (Reds lost, 12-11). He was placed on the injured list after that outing and with good reason/ The team is 4-15 in his 19 starst this season and his minus-$1,038 moneyline mark is the third-worst among all starters. in particular, he's 0-8 with a 5.58 ERA and .300 BAA in 11 starts, with the Reds going 0-11 (that's a perfect 100% "go-against).

Mikolas won for the first time in six starts this past Tuesday at Milwaukee, allowing just one run in six innings and striking out a season-high 10 in a 6-3 win. Mikolas was an All-Star selection last season, going 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA (Cards were 24-8 in his 32 starts, giving him an outstanding plus-$1,418 moneyline mark). However, the Cards are just 14-13-10 in his 2019 starts (minus-$212). Then again, Mikolas' woes have come away from Busch Stadium. The second-year pitcher owns an 'ugly' 6.11 ERA in 14 road starts (as well as a poor 1.46 WHIP and .308 BAA) but in 13 home starts, his ERA is 2.80, his WHIP is 1.04 and opponents are batting a more modest .244 against him.

Mahle is back in the majors after making three minor league starts but why should his 'luck' change (especially on the road)? Sweeping back-to-back doubleheaders in no easy chore but this Game 1 sure seems "ripe for the taking." As for Mikolas, his home numbers are outstanding and while 2019 has NOT gone like 2018, this makes his 28th start, the MOST of any St Louis pitcher. Pitching at home, Mikolas could become important to the Cards come October.

Good luck...Larry

My 7* Weekend Wipeout is on the LA Dodgers at 8:10 ET.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 'light years' behind the Dodgers in the NL West (18 games back) but after taking the opener of a four-game series with LA 11-5 on Thursday, the D'backs eked out a 5-4 win last night, giving them a FIVE-game winning streak. The team's recent surge has pushed Arizona three games over .500 (69-66) for the first time since mid-June and within 4 1/2 games of the second wild-card spot in the NL. As noted, the Dodgers' lead in the division is safe plus LA leads Atlanta by 5 1/2 games for the NL's best record. However, LA's back-to-back losses leave them at 88-49, a half-game back of the Astros and Yankees (both 88-48), for MLB's best overall record (to the winner goes homefield advantage throughout the entire postseason).

Two lefties square off tonight at Chase Field, Clayton Kershaw (13-3, 2.76 ERA) and Robbie Ray (11-7, 3.86 ERA). Kershaw saw his seven-start unbeaten streak he was 6-0 with a 1.84 ERA and LA was 7-0) come to end last Sunday against the New York Yankees. He gave up three runs (on solo HRs) over seven innings but struck out 12 (a season-high). Kershaw owns a 2.78 ERA in 33 career starts vs Arizona (he's 17-9 but the team a more modest 19-14). Ray owns a modest record on the season but he has come on as of late. The D'backs were just 8-10 in his first 18 starts but they 7-2 (he owns a 3.35 ERA) over his last nine (he is 6-1). Ray returned from a back injury (hadn't pitched since Aug 14) with five scoreless innings while allowing just three hits and recording six strikeouts in a 5-2 win at Milwaukee on Sunday. Ray is 7-6 (3.17 ERA) in 20 career starts vs LA (teams are 11-9).

However, Ray is 0-2 with a 4.07 ERA over three starts vs LA in 2019 and he's in the WRONG place at the WRONG time, here. Kershaw is coming off allowing three HRs last Sunday and the Dodgers are off back-to-back losses, while 'fighting' the Astros and Yanks for MLB's best record (important goal). After losing the first two of this four-game set (and with rookie Dustin May scheduled for Sunday's finale), LA needs its ace to "step up!" That's my bet.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Phi Phillies at 4:05 ET.

The New York Mets ended a six-game losing streak with Friday's 11-5 win in Philly, scoring all 11 runs in the final three innings. With the victory, New York remained FIVE games behind the Chicago Cubs in the race for the second NL wild card. The Phillies have alternated off losses and wins in their last seven game, which has pretty much been the case for them the last six or seven weeks (Philly is 22-21 since returning from the All Star break). Philadelphia sits 1 1/2 games ahead of the Mets and 3 1/2 behind the Cubs.

It's a matchup of lefties late Saturday afternoon, as Steven Matz (8-8, 4.06 ERA) takes on Jason Vargas (6-6, 4.09 ERA). Matz was sent to the bullpen at the the beginning of July (made two relief appearances) but returned to the rotation after the All Star break. He's allowed two ERs or less in SEVEN of his eight post-break starts. He was 6-0 in 10 home starts (Mets were 8-2), with a 2.07 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and .235 BAA, before suffering a hard-luck 2-1 home loss this past Sunday against Atlanta. He's back on the mound here but NOT at home and that's been an issue all season. He's 2-7 in 13 road starts (team is 4-9), posting a 6.28 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and .209 BAA. It's also not a good sign that Matz is 1-4 with a 6.15 ERA in nine appearances (eight starts / team is 2-6) in his career against the Phillies.

Philly hands the ball to Vargas, who was a trade-deadline acquisition from the Mets. Vargas was with the Mets for only the first FOUR games of their 15-1 surge from July 25 through August 10 that allowed them to move from tied for 13th in the NL to within a half-game of the second wild-card spot. He is the final guaranteed season of his contract and is still looking for his first win since joining the Phillies. He has allowed two runs in THREE of his five starts with Philadelphia but has yet to compete seven innings (team is 2-3 and Vargas owns a 4.34 ERA with the Phillies). Vargas is 0-2 with an 8.31 ERA in three career appearances (two starts) against the Mets, who are one of just two teams, along with the Milwaukee Brewers, he's never beaten. Then again, that's hardly much of a sample size.

Let me remind you here that Matz owns 'ugly' numbers on the road in 2019 (see above), as well as a poor record vs Philly, in a much bigger sample size. Let's also remember that the Mets seemed headed for a SEVENTH straight loss, before last night's late-inning 'explosion.' Hard to see that happening again, as New York has scored a total of just

My 9* "Best Bet" Situational Stunner is on the SF Giants at 10:15 ET.

The San Francisco Giants surprised many by winning SIX of seven entering the All Star break and then returning from the break to go 8-1. That 14-2 run allowed the Giants to climb into the National League wild card race. However, the Giants have lost SEVEN of their last nine after losing a 5-3 decision in Thursday's opener of a four-game home series with the Padres, dropping San Francisco SEVEN games back of the Chicago Cubs for the second wild-card spot. The Padres had lost six of their previous eight contests and the win leaves them no better than 62-71 on the season, 10 games back of the NL's second wild card spot.

The pitching matchup for tonight's second contest of the series will feature Dinelson Lamet (2-2, 4.30 ERA) and Madison Bumgarner (8-8, 3.71 ERA). Lamet made 21 starts for the Padres in 2018, going 7-8 with a 4.57 ERA. He's made just nine starts here in 2019 (all since July 4th) and while he takes the mound tonight riding a seven-start unbeaten streak, he's just 2-2 with a 4.30 ERA on the season (Padres are 3-6 in his starts). Bumgarner gets the nod for the Giants and after a 1-4 (4.30 ERA) start through six outings (team was just 1-5), the three-time World Series champ has seen the Giants go 16-6 in his last 22 starts, as he allowed three ERs or less, 17 times.

The Giants postseason hopes may be all but 'dead,' but Bumgarner has been a steady money-maker since the start of May. Let me close by noting that while he's struggled on the road (4.68 ERA / 1.32 WHIP / .272 BAA), he's been VERY good here at Oracle Park (2.95 ERA / 0.93 WHIP / .215 BAA).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET.

The Mets were just 40-50 at the All Star break but after a three-game home sweep of the Indians from Aug 20-22, New York had ripped off 27 wins in 37 contests and sat 67-60. The Mets welcomed the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves to Citi Field last Friday for a three-game series, having gone 14-2 at home since the break. However, the Mets lost all THREE, including a pair of 2-1 games, one which lasted 14 innings in a contest the Mets struck out 26 batters. New York was off Monday but lost its FOURTH straight home game last night, 5-2 against the Cubs. The Cubs own the NL's second-best home record (44-22) but have struggled on the road in 2019, as last night's win gave Chicago a 26-39 record away from Wrigley Field. Despite the four-game slide, the Mets are hanging around in the NL wild card race, three games back of the Cubs, who are three games back of the Nats for the No. 1 wild card spot.

It's an excellent pitching matchup tonight, as Kyle Hendricks (9-9, 3.20 ERA) takes on Noah Syndergaard (9-6, 3.71 ERA). Hendricks went on the injured list on June 15 with right shoulder inflammation but returned on July 2. He's made 10 starts since his return and while he's allowed two ERs or less in NINE of them, the Cubs are just 3-7 in those starts. Hendricks turned in a excellent performance against San Francisco on Thursday, earning the victory with seven scoreless innings of three-hit ball while striking out seven in a 1-0 victory. However, as just noted, his solid pitching has often NOT resulted in a team win. The Mets' Syndergaard also spent mid-to-late June on the DL but since his June 30 return, the Mets have won SEVEN of his 10 starts. The Mets are 4-1 in his last five starts (1.35 ERA) and he owns a 1.82 ERA in eight starts since the All-Star break, a stretch in which he is a perfect 8-for-8 in quality starts.

The Mets HAVE to snap their current losing streak if they have any hope of staying in the wild card race. Syndergaard is the pitcher they WANT on the mound and Hendricks is MORE than vulnerable. He's often pitched in poor luck in 2019 but what HAS been consistent is his dramatic away/home dichotomy. Hendricks owns a 1.79 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and .189 BAA in Wrigley but in all other venues, he owns a 4.76 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and .288 BAA. Mets win! Mets win!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* ("Best Bet")Situational Stunner is on the Phi Phillies at 6:05 ET.

The Pittsburgh Pirates were very much in the NL wild card chase at the All Star break but then lost 30 of their first 38 coming out of the break to end all postseason hopes. Pittsburgh did sweep the Reds in a three-game home series this past weekend and has now split a pair of one-run games in Philadelphia Monday and Tuesday. The Phillies lost TWO of three in Miami to the Marlins over the weekend (Miami owns the NL's worst record) and now need to avoid the same fate Wednesday at home vs the Pirates, as the teams play the rubber match of the series tonight. Philadelphia has been 'stuck in neutral' since the break, having gone 21-20. That leaves them 10 1/2 games back of the NL East-leading Braves and at 68-63, two games back of the second wild card spot (Cubs), with the Mets (one back), Brewers (1 1/2 back) and Arizona (two back) breathing down their necks.

Rookie Mitch Keller (1-2, 7.24 ERA) takes the mound for Pittsburgh, while Philadelphia counters with Vince Velasquez (5-7, 4.93 ERA). Keller was selected in the second round of the 2014 draft (was currently listed as Pittsburgh No. pitching prospect) but has hardly looked "ready for primetime" in his six 2019 starts. He's allowed 39 hits in just 27.1 innings, posting a 7.24 ERA, 1.83 WHIP and .339 BAA in all situations. In three road starts, those numbers get even worse (hard to believe), as he owns a 9.75 ERA, 2.33 WHIP and an almost unbelievable .400 BAA!

Velasquez began his career with the Astros in 2015 but he's been with the Phillies since 2016. He's made 116 career appearances (93 starts) and checks in with a career record of 25-33 with a 4.66 ERA. He'll take the mound tonight off a truly 'ugly' outing in his last start. He surrendered an early SEVEN-run lead last Friday at Miami, allowing a season-high seven runs in just 2.1 innings of a no-decision at Miami (Marlins would win, 19-11). "I feel pretty embarrassed," the 27-year-old said. "I'm pretty embarrassed and disappointed and I take full responsibility for the whole outcome of the game." That's an UNDERSTATEMENT, as Miami owns the NL's worst record, while ranking 29th in scoring (3.73 RPG), 28th in team BA (.241) plus 30th in both OPS (.668) and HRs (111).

I'm sure no big fan of Velasquez but I do see this as a great "bounce-back" opportunity for him against a team that is just 5-15 on the road since the break. As for his mound opponent tonight, Keller recorded his best performance of his young career last Friday, allowing one run and striking out nine in six-plus innings of a no-decision against Cincinnati. See above for a reminder of just how bad his 2019 numbers are, which INCLUDE his effort last Friday. The Phillies have disappointed so far but they remain "right in" the running for a wild card spot. This is a game the team really needs to win, with the Mets coming to town for three games this weekend.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Division Dominator (NL Central) is on the Mil Brewers at 7:05 ET.

St. Louis Cardinals entered the All Star break at 44-44, leaving them 3 1/2 games behind the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central. However, the Cards would go 12-3 to open the second half. They regained a share of first place on July 25 and stayed there until Aug 2, when a five-game losing streak on a West Coast swing (Aug 3-7) saw them fall four games back on Aug 8. However, after completing a four-game home sweep of Colorado over the weekend, the Cards have won 13 of their last 16 and open this series against the Milwaukee Brewers at 71-58. That gives them a 2 1/2 game lead in the division over the Cubs. The Brewers welcome the Cards to Miller Park with a 67-63 record, leaving them 4 1/2 games back of the Cards in the NL Central and tied with the NY Mets, TWO games back of the Cubs for the second wild card spot.

Adam Wainwright (9-9, 4.51 ERA) takes the mound for St Louis, opposed by Milwaukee's Gio Gonzalez (2-1, 3.64 ERA). Wainwright is set to face Milwaukee for the second time in less than a week, after he allowed five runs on eight hits and four walks in a 5-3 loss in St Louis last Wednesday. Wainwright's seen plenty of the Brewers in his career, going 16-10 (2.53 ERA) over 33 starts (team is 21-12). The three-time All-Star has struggled all season-long away from home, posting a 6.64 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and .294 BAA in 12 road starts (as opposed to a 2.67 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and .247 BAA in in 12 home starts).

The Brewers picked up Gonzalez in September of 2018 and the veteran lefty went 3-0 (2.13 ERA) in five starts (Brewers were 5-0). Gonzalez has had some injury issues this year (nothing new, there) and has made just 12 starts. He is winless over his last eight starts dating back to May 15 and did not factor into the decision for a seventh straight outing Tuesday at St.Louis, after allowing one run on three hits and four walks over six innings (Cards won 9-4). While Gonzalez has just ONE win in his 12 starts in 2019, note that the Brewers are 8-4 in those starts, including going 4-1 here in Miller Park. Gonzalez owns a 3.11 ERA in 11 career starts against St Louis.

I'm not even close to giving up on Milwaukee, which won the NL Central last season at 96-67, then swept the Rockies 3-0 in the NLDS, before taking the LA Dodgers to seven games in the NLCS. Could the Cards be ready for another "mini slump" (like in early Aug)? Wainwright just allowed five runs on eight hits and four walks in a 5-3 loss in St Louis this past Wednesday against the Brewers and I expect his road woes to continue tonight at Miller Park.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Phi Phillies at 7:05 ET.

The Philadelphia Phillies lost TWO of three in Miami to the Marlins over the weekend (Miami owns the NL's worst record). The Phillies return home this week for three games with the Pirates and then three with the Mets. Philadelphia has bee 'stuck in neutral' since the break, having gone 20-19. That leaves them at 67-62 and 11 1/2 games back of the NL East-leading Braves. Philly's only realistic playoff hopes now are in earning one of two NL wild card berths. Philadelphia is currently 1 1/2 games back of the Cubs (owners of the second wild card spot), tied with the Mets, who as noted, are coming to Philly Friday through Sunday. Pittsburgh fell out of playoff contention by going a disastrous 8-30 out of the break but all of a sudden, swept a three-game home series against the Reds over the weekend.

Taking the mound for tonight's series opener will be Pittsburgh's Joe Musgrove (8-12, 4.74 ERA) and Philadelphia's Jason Vargas (6-6, 3.99 ERA). Musgrove ended April with just a 1-2 record through six appearances (five starts) but owned a 1.54 ERA. However, his ERA had climbed over 4.00 by late-May and has remained there. Musgrove takes the mound tonight winless in his last four starts,after allowing six runs (five earned) on seven hits in five innings of an 11-1 loss to Washington this past Wednesday. He's 0-3 (team is 1-3) in August, allowing 18 ERs over just 21 innings (7.71 ERA). Philly hands the ball to Vargas, who was a trade-deadline acquisition from the Mets. Vargas has yet to earn a win in four starts (he's 0-1 and the team 1-3) but it would be unfair to say he's been a flop. A closer look reveals the lefty has had just one poor start, allowing four ERs over five innings of a 6-1 loss at Arizona. In his other three outings (all at home, like tonight), he's allowed two ERs in each one (3.00 ERA).

I wouldn't sell Vargas short, just yet. He will take the mound against a struggling pitcher (in Musgrove) and against a Pittsburgh team which is 4-14 on the road since the break. What's more, the Pirates are just 12-22 (4.2 RPG) against lefties on the season, including 6-12 on the road. More good news comes Philly's way in that Bryce Harper will return to the lineup on Monday after leaving for Las Vegas on Wednesday night to be with wife Kayla for the birth of their son. Harper is batting .290 with nine HRs and 20 RBI with a 1.139 OPS in his last 17 games.Pittsburgh just may be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Phillies. For tonight, that's my bet!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout is on the Sea Mariners at 4:10 ET.

The Toronto Blue Jays snapped their six-game losing streak with a 5-4 win last night in Seattle. Seattle had won FIVE of its previous six but as the teams get set for the rubber match of the three-game series on Sunday, both are 'buried' near the bottom of the standings in their respective divisions. 53-79 Toronto is 31 1/2 games back of the Yankees in the AL East, while 55-75 Seattle is 28 1/2 games back of the Astros in the AL West. Little was expected of the Jays this season (and they've 'delivered' on those expectations!) but in a 'time long ago,' the Mariners opened the 2019 season 13-2!! So much for that.

Sunday's pitching matchup will feature Clay Buchholz (0-2, 6.57 ERA) of Toronto and Marco Gonzales (13-10, 4.30 ERA) of Seattle. Buchholz will be activated from the injured list to make his sixth start of the season but first since May 5 because of a strained muscle in his upper back. The now 35-year-old has been hampered by injuries over the last three seasons, making a total of just 23 starts for three different teams. He has worked more than five innings just ONCE in his five outings of 2019 and in his most recent start (May 5), got hammered for seven ERs on eight hits over just four innings of a 10-2 loss at Texas. In three road starts in 2019, Buchholz owns an 8.56 ERA, 1.90 WHIP and .345 BAA. Anyone seriously expect a good outing from him? Yes, Seattle has 'fallen off a cliff' after its 13-2 start (has played .365 baseball since!) but Gonzales has been 'under the radar good' this season. Gonzales recorded his career high-tying 13th win this past Monday, when he gave up three runs on five hits in five innings at Tampa Bay in a 9-3 win. He enters this contest on a five-start unbeaten streak at home, during which he has gone 4-0 with a 2.31 ERA.

Buchholz has been battling a Grade 2 teres major muscle strain in his upper back but will "give it a go" after three rehabilitation starts. Here's the bottom line. Buchholz pitched for Boston from 2007-16, playing on World Series winners in 2007 and 2013. He made the All Star team twice, in 2010 (17-7, 2.33 ERA) and in 2013 (12-1, 1.74 ERA in just 16 starts) but "that pitcher" no longer exists. Just like Seattle is no longer a 13-2 team! However, Seattle does own a starter in Gonzales, who unlike Buchholz, comes into this contest in solid form. Seattle takes this one "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the NY Mets at 1:10 ET.

The Atlanta Braves won the NL East last year and have been the division's best team again in 2019. That said, the Braves haven't "stood pat," as they've bolstered their roster with waiver-wire pickups this month due to injuries. Those newcomers continue to pay dividends, as Francisco Cervelli had three hits with three RBI in his Atlanta debut Saturday, while Billy Hamilton singled as a pinch-hitter and scored in Saturday’s 9-5 victory that extended the Braves winning streak to SEVEN in a row, allowing the Braves to maintain their six-game lead in the NL East over the Nats. The Mets have lost just three of their 13 series since the All-Star break but with Saturday's defeat, TWO of those series' losses have come against the Braves. Yes, the Mets are 27-12 since the break but at 67-62, they are tied with the Brewers (two games back of the final wild card spot), with both teams a half-game back of the Phillies.

Taking the mound for the series finale will be Dallas Keuchel (4-5, 4.14 ERA) and Steven Matz (8-7, 4.18 ERA), squaring off in a battle of left-handers. Keuchel, a former Cy Young winner (2015) and World Series champ (2017), signed with the Braves in early June and he's made 12 starts. In six of his starts he's allowed two ERs or less and seven times, he's pitched at least six innings. However, a closer look reveals this trend. Keuchel has been dominant in six home starts, going 2-1 (team is 4-2) with a 2.29 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and a .196 BAA. However, in six away starts, he's 2-4 with a 6.40 ERA, 1.79 WHIP and a .331 BAA. OUCH!

Matzwas sent to the bullpen at the the beginning of July (made two relief appearances) but returned to the rotation after the All Star break and to be sure, he's helped fuel the Mets second-half surge. He's allowed two ERs or less in SIX of his seven post-break starts, posting a 2.81 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 41.2 innings. Like Keuchel, his away/home dichotomy provides a stark contrast. Matz is 2-7 in 13 road starts (Mets are 4-9), posting a 6.28 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and .290 BAA. However, he's 6-0 in 10 home starts (Mets are 8-2), with a 2.07 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and .235 BAA.

The Mets can't win this series but a win here will be a big confidence-builder and guaranrtees they won't lose any ground in the wild card chase (could gain with losses by by the Cubs, Phillies or Brewers). Looking at Keuchel's AWFUL road numbers and Matz's outstanding home numbers, why NOT play the Mets? What's more, it doesn't hurt that Matz is 5-1 with a 3.39 ERA in 11 career starts against Atlanta.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Mil Brewers at 7:10 ET.

The 66-62 Milwaukee Brewers are fighting to stay in the race for the second National League wild card and opened their three-game home series vs the D'backs with a 6-1 victory on Friday night. Milwaukee is in the midst of a stretch of 25 straight games against teams in contention in their respective leagues and Friday's victory gives hem a modest 4-5 record in that stretch. Clearly, the Brewers will have to play better, as they are three games back of the Cubs for the second wild card spot (Milwaukee will play Chicago seven times over the next two weeks) but also have two teams in between them (Mets and Phillies). Many thought that Arizona "threw in the towel" when it dealt Greinke at the trade deadline (note: Greinke has gone 4-0 with the Astros) and after getting just two hits last night, Arizona has fallen 5 1/2 games back of the Cubs by losing SIX of nine (64-65).

Zac Gallen (2-3, 2.45 ERA) takes the mound for Arizona, opposed by Milwaukee's Chase Anderson (5-3, 4.54 ERA). Gallen is a rookie who came over from the Miami Marlins at the trade deadline. He's been excellent in three starts, allowing just three ERs over 15 innings (1.80 ERA), with Arizona winning all three games. Gallen faces Milwaukee for the first time. Anderson will be trying to bounce back after getting hammered for a career-worst 10 runs on nine hits (including three HRs) in only 2.1 innings at Washington on Sunday (Nats won, 16-8). However, let's NOT fail to note that he had allowed three ERs in each of his previous 10 starts!

Gallen has looked good but he's got a limited resume and I'm of the belief that Arizona is headed 'south!' Meanwhile, I'm not even close to giving up on Milwaukee, which won the NL Centarl last season at 96-67, then swept the Rockies 3-0 in the NLDS, before taking the LA Dodgers to seven games in the NLCS. Anderson has pitched "better than his record" and should be primed for a bounce-back effort off his most recent outing (see above). Looking for some "extra motivation? Note that Anderson will square off against his former franchise for the sixth time (he pitched for Arizona in 2014 & 2015) and owns a 2.10 ERA in five previous starts against the D'backs.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET.

The Atlanta Braves opened their important three-game series at Citi Field with the NY Mets last night with a 2-1 win in 14 innings. It was Atlanta's SIXTH straight win, while the Mets lost for just the SECOND time in their last 15 home games and the defeat snapped their five-game winning streak, dropping them to 27-11 since the All-Star break. The Braves remained SIX games up in the NL East over the Nationals, while the Mets fell 10 games back in the division, although they remained just two games back of the Cubs in the race for the NL's second wild card spot (note: Phillies are just a half-game back of the Mets and the Brewers are just one game back).

Tonight's pitching matchup is Max Fried (14-4, 3.84 ERA) vs Zack Wheeler (9-7, 4.40 ERA). It marks a "re-hook" from an Aug 13 game in Atlanta which the Braves won 5-3. Fried beat the Mets in that one, allowing one run on six hits over six innings. However, Fried saw his five-start win streak end with a no-decision this past Sunday against the Los Angeles Dodgers. He survived allowing three runs on five hits in a 38-pitch first inning but then gave up just three hits in the next four innings as the Braves rallied for a 5-3 win. The 25-year-old has had a memorable season. He opened the season with two relief appearances but has since made 24 consecutive starts (team is 18-6 and his moneyline mark of plus-$976 ranks 7th-best among all starters).

Many expected Wheeler to be moved at the trade deadline but that didn't happen. He responded by delivering 15 consecutive scoreless innings in back-to-back 4-0 and 5-0 wins to open August. However, the Braves ended that streak when they pounded out 12 hits and scored five runs over just five innings in that Aug 13 contest (see above). Wheeler fared better in his last start Sunday at Kansas City, allowing four runs (three earned) on four hits over five innings. Wheeler, has gotten the job done for the Mets here at Citi Field, as the team is 8-3 in his home starts (remember: Mets are 13-2 their L15 at home!).

I like the "quick turnaround" situation here and while I've "played on" Fried quite a bit this season, I believe this is a great spot to go against him. Incredibly, the Braves struck out 26 times in Friday's 2-1 win (14 inn)., making the Mets the fifth team to record 26 strikeouts in a game (just the second to lose). NOTHING went right for the Mets last night, as they had the heart of the order up in the ninth, loaded the bases in the 10th and had the winning run on third base with one out in the 11th. Coming away "with nothing," all three times. In fact, New York's only run cnme on deGrom's sixth-inning HR, as the Mets went 1-for-9 with runners on base following that blast. Expect a different result, tonight!

Good luck...Larry

My 7* Daytime Dominator is on the LA Dodgers at 4:05 ET.

The Los Angeles Dodgers welcomed the New Yankees to Dodger Stadium for a crucial three-game series beginning last night. LA owned a two-game lead over NY for the best record in the majors, with home-field advantage throughout the postseason going to the team with MLB's best record. LA was coming off back-to-back walk-off home victories over Toronto (giving them a major league-best 12 on the year) and opened the series with MLB's best home record (51-16, outscoring opponents on average, 5.43-to-3.10 RPG). Meanwhile, the Yankees had matched a season worst by losing FOUR in a row, after opening a nine-game West Coast trip by losing all three contest in Oakland (Tue-Thu). Ryu took the mound last night for LA, with the Dodgers having gone 11-0 in his Chavez Ravine starts in 2019. No wonder, as he owned an 0.81 ERA, allowing just 52 hits over 77.2 innings (.189 BAA) plus had 74-10 KW Ratio (0.80 WHIP). Yes, the Yankees owned a dangerous lineup but they had totaled just NINE runs in three straight losses at Oakland to start a six-game trip plus had managed just 27 runs in their last seven games (3.86 per),.

So what happened Friday night? Didi Gregorius collected five RBI on a grand slam and a solo shot, as New York homered FIVE five times in a 10-2 win in the series opener. Ryu allowed nine hits and seven ERs over just 4.1 innings, just the THIRD time in 24 starts this season in which he has allowed more than two ERs. Go figure? The Yankees now trail the Dodgers by just ONE game in the battle for MLB's best record, as CC Sabathia (5-7, 5.01 ERA) takes the mound this afternoon against Tony Gonsolin (1-1, 3.00 ERA).

The 39-year-old Sabathia is coming down the stretch of his impressive 19-season career. He returned from the injured list due to knee tendinitis this past Sunday and gave up four runs on four hits over just three innings of an 8-4 home loss to Cleveland. CC has lost three straight starts and is winless over his last FIVE, a stretch during which he is 0-3 (the Yanks are 1-4) while posting a 7.77 ERA and has allowed 10 HRs. Sabathia is 1-0 with a 0.84 ERA in three career starts against Los Angeles (teams are 3-0) but is that really relevant here? More in a bit.

While Sabathia owns 556 career starts, 251 wins and 3,073 strikeouts, Gonsolin will be making his fourth major-league start and fifth appearance. The 25-year-old lasted just four innings against Atlanta on Sunday, when he gave up one run and five hits in a 5-3 loss. Gonsolin has looked sharp so far, posting an 0.94 WHIP with a 15-1 KW ratio, while holding opponents to a ,225 BAA. In his lone home start (an 8-0 win on Aug 5 vs StL), he allowed just two hits over six scoreless innings. Yes, LA got pounded last night here at home but remember, the Dodgers are 51-17 at home, outscoring opponents on average, 5.38-to-3.21 RPG. Getting back to CC, he's been just AWFUL on the road this season, going 1-5 in nine road starts (Yanks are 2-7), with a 6.95 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and .314 BAA. Of yeah, ONE last thing. The Dodgers are 14-1 (93%) in home day games. That's good enough for me.

Good luck...Larry

My 7* Pitch-Perfect Play is on the LA Dodgers at 10:10 ET.

The 85-44 Los Angeles Dodgers enter a crucial three-game series against the visiting 83-46 New York Yankees on Friday, owning a two-game lead for the best record in the majors f(home-field advantage throughout the postseason will go to the team with MLB's best record). LA is coming off back-to-back walk-off home victories over Toronto (giving them a major league-best 12 on the year) and will open the series with MLB's best home record (51-16, outscoring opponents on average, 5.43-to-3.10 RPG). Meanwhile, the Yankees have matched a season worst by losing FOUR in a row, after opening a nine-game West Coast trip by losing all three contest in Oakland (Tue-Thu).

The first game of the series features two lefties, New York's James Paxton (9-6, 4.53 ERA) and LA's Hyun-Jin Ryu (12-3, 1.64 ERA). Paxton was just 5-6 with a 4.72 ERA through his first 18 starts of 2019. However, he has won each of his last four starts, although his ERA is just a so-so 3.80 in that span. Ryu allowed four runs on six hits (including two HRs) over 5.2 innings while losing 4-3 to Atlanta in his last outing (Aug 17). To put it mildly, that start was an outlier for Ryu in 2019. He entered last Saturday's outing having allowed just TWO runs over a six-start span (39.2 innings / 0.45 ERA). Almost unbelievably, Ryu has allowed two ERs or less in all but TWO of his 23 starts in 2019. Read that again, S-L-O-W-L-Y! He owns a 1.64 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and .223 BAA for the season, with the Dodgers going 17-6, +$815 in his starts (11th-best moneyline mark).

However, let me now get to "the good stuff!" Here in Chavez Ravine, the Dodgers are a PERFECT 11-0 in Ryu's starts and no wonder. He owns an 0.81 ERA, has allowed just 52 hits over 77.2 innings (.189 BAA) plus has 74-10 KW Ratio (0.80 WHIP). He'll take the mound against a dangerous New York lineup but one which totaled just NINE runs in three straight losses at Oakland to start a six-game trip plus one that has managed just 27 runs in its last seven games (3.86 per), FIVE of which have been losses.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Bos Red Sox at 10:10 ET.

The Boston's wild card hopes took a hit when the Red Sox dropped two games at home Tuesday and Wednesday to the Philadelphia Phillies. However. Boston managed to pick up a win on Thursday afternoon, when it finished off a suspended game against the Kansas City Royals by pushing a run across in the 10th inning to grab a 5-4 victory and avoid a three-game slide. The 68-61 Red Sox are currently SEVEN games back of the AL's second wild card spot, as they open an eight-game road trip by visiting the San Diego Padres on Friday. The Padres return home off back-to-back losses at Cincinnati on Tuesday and Wednesday. San Diego's wild card chances are clearly on 'life-support,' as the Padres are not only NINE games back of the second wild card spot but SIX teams are ahead of them!

Eduardo Rodriguez (14-5, 4.10 ERA) will take the mound for Boston, opposed by San Diego rookie Chris Paddack (7-6, 3.44 ERA). Rodriguez snapped a three-start winless streak with a strong effort against Baltimore this past Saturday, scattering four hits over 7/1 scoreless innings to earn a 4-0 win. With Sale and Price hurt (both have been HUGE underachievers in 2019, as well), the Venezuela native has been a staff mainstay (more later). Rodriguez is making his first career start against San Diego but is 6-2 with a 3.61 ERA in 13 interleague starts. Paddock is making his first start against Boston. He started strong in 2019, going 4-2 with a 1.93 ERA thru May 20 (San Diego was 7-2 in his nine starts). However, the season has taken a toll on the 23-year-old, who has just THREE wins in his last 12 starts. He's looked 'lost' lately, allowing 13 ERs on 20 hits over 14.2 innings in his last three outings (7.98 ERA).

Paddack will face a Boston lineup which is 25-16 on the road vs righties, averaging 5.5 RPG. Meanwhile, the left-handed Rodriguez faces a San Diego lineup which is just 10-17 vs lefties on the season, averaging only 3.9 RPG. Getting back to Rodriguez, he's been Boston's biggest money-maker for the SECOND straight year. He was 19-4 in team starts in 2018 (+$1,387) and here in 2019, his team record is 19-7 (+$1,128). Getting him at pick'em vs a slumping Paddack is a bargain.

Good luck...Larry

My 7* Las Vegas Insider is on the Tex Rangers at 8:10 ET.

The Rangers and White Sox opened a four-game series last night in Chicago, with the White Sox cruising to a 6-1 victory. Texas entered the series having won THREE of four at home (all in walk-off fashion) but the loss dropped Texas to just 25-39 away from home on the season. The White Sox are now just 31-31 at home but they have dominated the Rangers lately here at Guaranteed Rate Field, winning 11 of the last 13 meetings. The teams continue their series tonight but both are just "playing out the string." The 63-66 Rangers are 12 games back of the second AL wild card spot, while the 58-69 White Sox are 16 games back.

Veteran Lance Lynn (14-8, 3.60 ERA) takes the mound for Texas, opposed by Chicago rookie Dylan Cease (2-6, 5.93 ERA). Lynn won 71 games for the Cards in a five-year span from 2012-17 (he missed the 2016 season) but his 2018 season, split between the Twins and Yanks, was a flop (10-10, 4.77 ERA). However, he has "settled in" with Texas. He made the 2019 All Star game and while he is winless in his last three outings, he allowed just 12 hits over 17 innings in that span, posting a 2.65 ERA. Chicago's Cease won his MLB debut back on July 3rd but he has lost SIX of seven starts since the All Star break. The 23-year-old has served up at least one HR in each of his eight major-league starts (10 on the season) and issued 21 walks in 44 innings. Cease may be one of the White Sox's prized young arms but the reality is he comes into this contest with a 1-6 record (6.00 ERA) in his last seven starts, up against a veteran pitcher who has held opponents to three ERs or less in 20 of his 26 starts in 2019. I've got Lynn and Texas in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the Oak A's at 10:07 ET.

The Oakland Athletics opened a nine-game homestand last Thursday by taking THREE of four against the AL West-leading Houston Astros. After a Monday "off day," the A's got off to a good start vs another division leader, posting a 6-2 victory over the AL East-leading New York Yankees. Oakland now seeks its SEVENTH victory in its last nine contests when it hosts the Yankees on Wednesday for the middle contest of a three-game series. The 83-44 Yankees own a dominating 10-game lead in their division, while the 72-53 A's find themselves EIGHT games back of the Astros in their division. However, Monday's win pulled Oakland even with Tampa Bay for the AL's second wild-card spot.

Tonight's pitching matchup will feature J.A. Happ (10-7, 5.40 ERA) going up against Mike Fiers (11-3, 3.46 ERA). Happ's been a disappointment for New York but did deliver his best performance in nearly a month last Wednesday, allowing two runs on six hits in five innings of a 6-5 victory over Baltimore. Then again, it was against the Orioles! Let's note that his 5.40 ERA is almost 1 1/2 runs higher than his career ERA (4.01) and his .276 BAA is 25 points higher than his lifetime mark (.251). I guess one could point to his 4-1 record and 3.96 ERA in nine starts (teams are 7-2) and two relief appearances against Oakland in his career but one could easily file that under "old news," just as easily.

Fiers escaped with a no-decision against Houston last Thursday, after surrendering five runs and six hits (including 4 HRs!) over six innings but the A's would win, 7-6. Fiers will take the mound tonight looking to claim his 10th consecutive winning decision. He is unbeaten in his last 18 starts, a stretch that began with a no-hitter against the Cincinnati Reds back on May 7. The A's are 13-4 in those 18 starts, with one suspended game (Qakland led 5-3 at the time). Most impressively, Fiers had allowed three ERs or less in ALL 17 of those starts (had allowed two ERs or less 13 times) , prior to his last outing! Fiers is 9-0 with a 2.40 ERA in 18 starts since throwing that no-hitter vs the Reds.

Let me remind everyone here that Fiers was acquired by the A's (from Detroit) in early August of 2018 and Oakland went 8-1 (+$812) in his nine starts. Add that to his 13-8 (+$1,085) moneyline record with the Tigers and Fiers was MLB's top MONEY-MAKER among all starters in 2018 (21-9, +$1,897). He's followed that season with the one I just detailed above, including a 16-9 record in team starts (+$766). Pretty impressive, right? What's more, the A's are an impressive 21-10 at home vs lefties in 2019, averaging 5.5 RPG. That includes a 9-3 (75%) record in night games. Oakland should have little trouble here vs Happ, who hasn't won on the road since June 6 at Toronto (note: Happ owns a 4.31 ERA in six games, including five starts in Oakland).

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Pitching Mismatch Of the Month is on the Tex Rangers at 7:05 ET.

The Texas Rangers edged the LA Angels 8-7 (11 inn.) on Monday and then split a doubleheader with them on Tuesday, with a 3-2 win in 11 innings Tuesday night.The team's second straight 11-inning win moved the 62-65 Rangers into a virtual tie with the 63-66 Angels for third place in the AL West but both teams are 19 games back of the Astros. As for any wild card hopes, that 'ship has left port' as well, as both teams are 11 games back of the final spot. At stake is nothing more than this. The Rangers haven't won a series since sweeping Detroit to open August and have not taken a series from a team other than the Tigers since June 21-23 against the Chicago White Sox.

Taking the mound tonight will be LA's Patrick Sandoval (0-1, 5.79 ERA), squaring off against the Rangers' Mike Minor (11-7, 2.94 ERA). Sandoval pitched a solid five innings of relief in his MLB debut back on August 5 (2 ERs) but has struggled in back-to-back starts, allowing seven ERs over nine innings (7.00 ERA), with almost as many walks (5), as Ks (7). There was lots of talk that Minor would be moved by the trade deadline but he's still in Arlington. He did see his personal three-game winning streak come to an end Friday against Minnesota, giving up four runs (three earned) in seven innings. However, he's had some season for Texas, allowing three ERs or less in 19 of his 25 starts.

Minor recorded his first career shutout with a three-hitter against the Angels back on April 16 and is 3-0 in six career starts vs LA (teams are 4-2), while posting a 2.55 ERA. Minor over Sandoval is a clear "Pitching Mismatch."

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Cin Reds at 12:25 ET.

The San Diego Padres and Cincinnati Reds have opened their three-game series by splitting a pair of 3-2 contests. San Diego won Monday and Cincinnati returned the favor last night. The one-run loss ended the Padres' modest three-game road winning streak, while the Red won for just the THIRD time in their last 10 contests. Each 59-66 team has less than 40 games remaining in their seasons and each sit EIGHT games behind the second wild card spot with FIVE teams ahead of them. The rubber game of the series goes early this afternoon, with the Reds looking to clinch their first season series over the Padres since 2012.

Wednesday's pitching matchup will feature Matt Strahm (5-8, 5.21 ERA) and Luis Castillo (11-5, 3.10 ERA). Strahm began the season in the starting rotation, going 3-7 with a 5.42 ERA prior to the All Star break (15 games) but has been used exclusively out of the bullpen since. He hasn't pitched more than two innings in 14 relief appearances since the break and will likely serve as "an opener" in this one. Castillo has already set a career high for wins and boasts a strong 3.10 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and .201 BAA during his All-Star 2019 campaign. However, he was roughed up at home Friday night when he allowed a career-worst eight runs, allowing three HRs among the nine hits he gave up (in just 4.1 innings). Then again, Castillo entered that contest 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA in his previous three starts

As noted above, Strahm "wont be around long," before turning it over to a San Diego bullpen which owns a 4.68 ERA (19th in MLB) and has a MLB-high 24 blown saves (tied with the Nats). Expect a strong "bounce-back" effort from Castillo, who has allowed three ERs or less in 20 of his 25 starts in 2019 and here at Great American Ball Park, owns a 2.97 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and .195 BAA.

Good luck...Larry

My 7* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Reds at 7:10 ET.

The 59-65 San Diego Padres beat the 58-66 Cincinnati Reds 3-2 last night and the teams meet in the second contest of this three-game series tonight at Great American Ball Park. The Padres have won three straight (all on the road) and are one win shy of matching a season high for consecutive victories on the road. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has now lost SEVEN of its last nine. The season has less than 40 games remaining and both teams are all but out of any serious playoff consideration, as San Diego is SEVEN games back and Cincinnati EIGHT games back of the NL's final wild card spot.

On the mound tonight will be San Diego's Cal Quantrill (6-3, 3.23 ERA) and Cincy's Sonny Gray (8-6, 2.98 ERA). Quantrill is having an impressive rookie season. This marks his 18th appearance, and his 13th start. The 24-year-old has lost just ONCE in his last 14 outings (nine starts). His MLB debut was May 1 and the Padres lost his first three starts (Quantrill was 0-2), posting a 5.40 ERA. However, in the above-mentioned span, he's shaved more than TWO runs off his ERA. He owns a 61-19 KW ratio, 1.12 WHIP and .230 BAA on the season. As for Cincy's Gray, he's pitched MUCH better than his won-loss record reflects. He's allowed two ERs or less in SIX of seven starts since his All-Star appearance (Reds are 6-1) and going back over his last 16 starts, he is 8-2 and the Reds have gone 13-3. That's quite a turnaround from him going 0-4 with a 4.15 ERA over his first NINE starts of 2019 (Reds were 3-6).

As noted, Quantrill has been impressive but Gray is on quite a roll. He's allowed just 98 hits in his 132.2 innings this season, posting a 154-50 KW ratio. That gives him a 1.12 WHIP and he boasts a .206 batting average against. He enters tonight's game 5-1 with a 1.59 ERA in his last nine outings (Reds are 7-2). Gray gets the Reds "even" in this series.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:10 ET.

The Boston Red Sox welcome the Philadelphia Phillies to Fenway for a two-game IL series tonight. Boston currently owns MLB's longest-active winning streak (a modest five in a row) but at 67-59, find themselves a WHOPPING 16 games back of the hated-Yankees in the AL East. There are still 36 games left in Boston's season, so at least the Red Sox can hope (dream?) about a wild card berth. Boston is SIX games back of that second AL card spot. The Phillies are coming off Saturday and Sunday home losses to the Padres leaving them 64-60. Their division hopes are fading VERY quickly, as Philadelphia is NINE games back of Atlanta in the NL East. However, the disappointing Philies (along with the Mets), are just TWO games back of the Cubs for the NL's second wild card spot.

Tuesday's pitching matchup will be Philly's Aaron Nola (11-3, 3.56 ERA) and Boston lefty Brian Johnson (1-1, 6.45 ERA). Nola was Philly's Opening Day starter, coming off a 17-6 (2.37 ERA) season in which the Phils went 22-11 in his starts, giving him MLB's 12th-best moneyline mark of +$983. He enters this contest 11-3 in 26 starts on the season (team is 17-9 but a modest plus-$385), although he's lost just ONE decision since June 21. He's 5-1 over his last 10 starts (team is 8-2), allowing one ER or less in SEVEN of those 10 starts. Johnson takes the mound tonight in place of Chris Sale, who reportedly received positive news on Monday after his meeting with Dr. James Andrews confirmed a previous diagnosis of inflammation on his ailing left elbow. Johnson last pitched Wednesday, when he allowed one unearned run on three hits in 2 .2 innings of a no-decision at Cleveland (Red Sox won, 5-1). This marks his 11th appearance of 2019 (sixth start).

One can easily make the argument that Phily owns a pitching edge here with Nola over Johnson but note that Nola's road ERA (4.63) is more than 1 1/2 runs higher than his home ERA (2.94). Nola will take the mound against a Boston lineup which has scored 38 runs during its five-game winning streak (7.6 per) and one which has averaged 6.05 RPG in Fenway this season. Yes, Johnson is hardly a quality starter, but the lefty faces a Philly lineup which has gone just 5-15 against left-handed starers on the road in 2019 (that's a 71% "go-against), while averaging a WOEFUL 3.4 RPG. Boston makes it SIX straight wins, tonight!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the StL Cardinals at 7:45 ET.

The St Louis Cardinals came out of the All Star break by losing to Arizona but then won 12 of their next 14 to take over the top spot in the NL Central at 56-47. The Cardinals still held a slim lead in the division at 58-50 in games played through August 1 but a winless five-game West Coast trip in which the team totaled just SEVEN runs (two losses to Oakland and three against the LA Dodgers), left the Cards at 58-55. However, the Cards rebounded to win FIVE in a row, before splitting a four-game series at Cincinnati this past weekend. As the Cards get set to welcome the Brewers to St Louis (for three games), they are 66-57 (.533), a mere percentage point ahead of the 66-58 (.532) Cubs for the NL Central lead. Milwaukee comes to town off a 15-14 (14 inn) win at Washington on Saturday, followed by a 16-8 loss on Sunday. The 64-60 Brewers are two games back of the Cards and Cubs in teh division. They are also tied with the Phillies and Mets, two games back of the final wild card spot and 3 1/2 games back of the No. 1 wild card spot (held by the Nats).

That sets the stage is set for this important three-game series. Zach Davies (8-5, 3.74 ERA) will take the mound for Milwaukee, opposed by the Cards' Dakota Hudson (11-6, 3.82 ERA). Davies will come off the injured list to make his first start since August 2. He opened the season 7-0 (2.41 ERA) after 13 starts (team was 9-4) but he has since gone 1-4 over his last 10 outings (team went 4-6). Davies lost THREE in a row, allowing 17 ERs on 20 hits over just 13 innings in a three-start stretch before back spasms landed him on the DL. How will he fare here?

Hudson rebounded from a rough three-outing stretch to deliver six scoreless innings in a 6-0 win at Kansas City on Wednesday. He was 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA over his previous three outings (team was 1-2) , while giving up 19 hits and seven walks in just 11.2 innings. However, the rookie had posted an 8-1 record and 3.13 ERA over a two-plus month stretch from mid-May to late July (Cards won 11 of his 12 starts in that stretch).

Here's what Davies had to say regarding his back stiffness. "I think I'll be tight and sore in between starts. That's the nature of it," he told MLB.com. "But we can manage it. We can work on it and be good to go for each start from here on out. I've talked to a lot of people, and it's kind of based on my mechanics. I think it blocked me out and put a lot of stress on my lower back. Getting back to the last couple of months of 2017 with my motion and mechanics is where I want to be, and where I think I'll be healthy." That's hardly a convincing argument to me plus let me add that Milwaukee used 10 pitchers in Saturday's extra-inning affair and four in the series finale, as the staff combined to give up 30 runs and 37 hits with 14 walks over the two games. Instead, Ill back Hudson, who has remarkably allowed three ERs or less in 22 of his 24 starts in 2019. Blowout alert!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* LEGEND Play is on the Tex Rangers at 3:05 ET.

The Twins boosted their major league-leading total to 240 HRs in Saturday's 12-7 victory, getting two-run shots from Miguel Sano and C.J. Cron. Minnesota began the week in Milwaukee on Tuesday, a half-game behind the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central but the Twins enter Sunday's contest with a 2 1/2-game lead. They go for a four-game sweep in Texas today, looking to cap their current trip at 5-1. Minnesota is 39-22 on the road this season, percentage points better than the 40-23 TB Rays for MLB's best road mark. Texas has now lost NINE of its last 11 to fall three games under .500 for the first time since May 18. By opening 0-3 in this series, Texas falls to 1-10-3 in its last 14 series.

Martin Perez (8-5, 4.57 ERA) will take the mound for Minnesota, while Lance Lynn (14-8, 3.54 ERA) gets the ball for Texas. Both pitchers will be matched up against their former teams, as well as one another. Perez spent the bulk of his career with the Texas Rangers before joining Minnesota this year, while Lance Lynn made 20 starts for the Twins a year ago. Perez was signed as an undrafted free agent with Texas in 2007 and went 43-49 with a 4.63 ERA for the Rangers. However, Texas let him leave after a 2018 season in which he went just 2-7 with a 6.22 ERA in 22 appearances, including 15 starts. His most recent 2019 win came against Texas, 15-6 on July 5th in Minnesota. The lefty is coming off a solid outing in his last start (6 IP / 1 unearned run) but in his previous four, had given up 19 ERs over just 21 innings (8.14 ERA).

Lynn won 71 games for the Cards in a five-year span from 2012-17 (he missed the 2016 season) but his 2018 season, split between the Twins and Yanks, was a flop (10-10, 4.77 ERA). However, he has "settled in" with Texas. Lynn opened the second half with a 5-0 win over the Astros but then lost B2B starts with a 6.23 ERA (note: he did strike out 18 in 13 innings). Lynn has rebound from that two-start 'hiccup,' allowing just one ER in each of his last four outings. He may be just 2-2 but don't blame him, as his ERA is 1.44 in that span and he's struck out 32 in 25 innings.

Perez spent seven seasons pitching in Globe Life Park in Arlington but Sunday afternoon will mark the first time the left-hander makes a start for the visiting side. Despite the Rangers' struggles, I don't want any part of Perez in this one. His 7-1 (2.95 ERA) start to the 2019 season (through May 23) is "in the rear-view mirror." He owns just ONE win in his last 13 starts, as his ERA has ballooned almost two full runs, from 2.95 to 4.57. As for his mound opponent, Lynn is 9-1 at home in 12 starts (team is 10-2). Lynn beat Toronto 8-5 back on May 4 (allowed five ERs in six innings) but since then, he's allowed three ERs or less in 15 of his last 18 starts! There's a reason that the slumping Rangers are the favorite against MLB's best road team and that reason is Lynn over Perez!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Phi Phillies at 1:05 ET.

The Phillies have brought back former manager Charlie Manuel as their hitting coach and it provided immediate dividends. However, Phildelphia came up short in its fifth attempt at a season-high five-game winning streak last night. The Phillies squandered an early three-run lead in Saturday's 5-3 setback to the Padres but can still earn a series win with a victory in Sunday's rubber match. The 64-59 Phillies are EIGHT games back of the Braves in the NL East but are tied with the Brewers, just ONE game back of the Cubs for the NL's second wild card spot. The Padres won for the just the SECOND time in six games, giving the team a 12-20 record since the break. San Diego is all but out of wild card consideration, as the Padres are 7 1/2 games back of the final berth, with a 'TON' of teams ahead of them.

A pair of lefties will take the mound on Sunday, Joey Lucchesi (7-7, 4.25 ERA) for San Diego and Jason Vargas (6-6, 4.03 ERA) for Philadelphia. Lucchesi has not won since before the break (July 7), going 0-3 (team is 0-6) in that span (5.23 ERA). His struggles actually go back further, as he's got just ONE win in his last nine outings (Padres are 1-8), posting a 5.10 ERA. Vargas will make his fourth appearance for the Phillies, since being acquired at the trade deadline from the Mets. He remains in search of his first win with the Phillies, although he has recorded two quality starts in his first three tries.

Here's the bottom line. The Phillies have clearly underachieved in 2019 but the team is still "right in" the wild card race. Meanwhile, the Padres lost touch with the Dodgers in the NL West long ago and as noted earlier, the team's wild card chances are on 'life-support.' Vargas has had in moments during a career which began in 2005 (this is his SEVENTH team), while Lucchesi has looked 'lost' for EIGHT weeks. What's more, while he owns a 2.91 ERA and 1.08 ERA in Petco Park, his road ERA is a bloated 6.15 in 10 away starts (Padres are 3-7). Philadelphia with Vargas is the bet.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Phi Phillies at 7:05 ET.

Bryce Harper hit a walk-off grand slam against the Chicago Cubs in Thursday's 7-5 win, then launched a three-run shot Friday in Philadelphia's 8-4 victory over San Diego. Bringing back former manager Charlie Manuel as hitting coach earlier this has provided immediate dividends. The Phillies have scored 26 runs in three games since Manuel rejoined the club and Harper, in particular, has 'lit it up.' He's 6-of-12 with four HRs and 10 RBI in his last three games. The Philies continue their series with the Padres tonight, going their season-high fifth straight win. Philadelphia is SEVEN games back of the Braves in the NL East but at 64-58, is tied with the Cubs for the NL's second wild card spot.As for the Padres, they are 11-20 since the break and at 56-65, are all but out of the wild card hunt (sit 7 1/2 games back of that second spot with a plethora a teams in betwen). Adding insult to injury, the team's fading playoff hopes (I'm being kind here) took a major 'hit' when rookie sensation Fernando Tatis Jr. was placed on the 10-day injured list with a stress reaction in his back that is expected to end his season.

Tonight's pitching matchup features Dinelson Lamet (1-2, 3.86 ERA) and Zach Eflin (7-11, 4.49 ERA). Lamet returned from Tommy John surgery on July 4 (he hadn't pitched since 2017) and has struck out 49 and walked 16 in 35 innings over seven starts. He's got a solid ERA and his WHIP is 1.26 plus he's holding opponents to a .214 BAA. Those numbers are fine but he has pitched more than five innings in just ONE of his seven starts. Turning to Eflin, he was banished to the bullpen after losing four successive starts in July, while posting a 12.64 ERA. However, he is getting another shot at the rotation with Jake Arrieta expected to undergo season-ending elbow surgery.

Here's the bottom line. Eflin didn't like being demoted to the bullpen but he took responsibility. "It's ultimately not my decision," Eflin said. "If I don't like it, I should pitch better. I hadn't been really doing my job. Going to the bullpen is another opportunity for me. It's a challenge. I'm a fan of challenges." Eflin allowed just one run in 5.2 innings over four relief appearances and now gets another chance to start. He'll take the mound for a team "on a roll' and with a great opportunity to "make hay" vs the slumping Padres. His mound opponent will likely go no more than five innings (if he's lucky) and will then turn it over to a bullpen with a 4.80 ERA (ranks 22nd in MLB) and one which owns 24 blown saves, the MOST on any big league club. So how is this game a pick'em???

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the Was Nats at 7:05 ET.

The Washington Nationals sat 19-31 back on the morning of May 24 but ended the first half on a 28-11 run. Washington split its first 22 games back from the break but have now won EIGHT of 10 (including FIVE straight), after last night's 2-1 win over Milwaukee. The Nats had just THREE hits but the team's five-game winning streak matches its longest of the season. At 66-55, the Nats improved to 11 games over .500 for the first time since June 9, 2018, closing within 4 1/2 games in the NL East of Atlanta. Washington holds down the top wild-card spot in the National League, while the 63-58 Brewers are one game back of the second wild card spot (two games back of the 1st-place Cards). Milwaukee lost for just the third time in its last nine contests on Friday, going 2-for-10 with runners in scoring position and leaving 13 on base (don't win many games that way!)..

Saturday's pitching matchup is Jordan Lyles (7-8, 4.71 ERA) and Anibal Sanchez (7-6, 3.75 ERA). The 28-year-old Lyles was acquired by the Brewers just hours before he was supposed to start for the Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati on July 29. This his second tour of duty with Milwaukee, as he went 1-0 with a 3.31 ERA in 11 relief appearances for the Brewers last year. Lyles began the 2019 season just 31-52 in his career, while posting a 5.28 ERA. However, he went 5-1 with a 2.81 over his first nine starts (Pirates won EIGHT of the nine). However, Lyles took the mound on July 31 for Milwaukee, with an 0-6 record in his previous eight outings (Pittsburgh was 0-8!), owning a bloated 9.57 ERA over his last nine starts. So what's he done with teh Brewers? He's 2-1 while allowing five runs (three earned) on eight hits over 17 innings (1.59 ERA).

Sanchez was a pleasant surprise last season after signing with Atlanta during spring training, going 7-6 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. However, he signed a two-year deal in the off-season with Washington. Sanchez opened 0-6 with a 5.10 ERA through nine starts (team was 3-6). He suffered a left hamstring strain in May that cost him 10 days on the injured list and he missed one start. However, he's returned to the rotation to help fuel Washington's recent surge. He's unbeaten in his last 14 starts, going 7-0 with the Nats going 10-4. Sanchez has allowed three ERs or less in 12 of those 14 starts, allowing four ERs in the other two.

I'm "all over" Washington and Sanchez isn this one, as I'm not even remotely 'sold' on Lyles' recent good outings. Lyles hasn't faced Washington this season, but has made 10 appearances (two starts) in his career against them, going 0-2 with a 5.55 ERA. Nats win with "room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Chi Cubs at 1:35 ET.

The Pittsburgh Pirates came out of the All Star break 44-45, very much alive in the NL wild card hunt. However, last night's 3-2 win over the Cubs was juts the team's SEVENTH in 32 games in the second half. ALL playoff hopes have been wiped away and the Pirates can only play the role of spoiler through Sep 29. That was the case last night, as they scored two runs in the bottom of the ninth to 'steal' a victory. It was the FOURTH straight loss for the 64-58 Cubs, who fell out of a tie with the St Louis Cardinals for first place in the NL Central. It also marked the second straight walk-off loss for Chicago, following Thursday's 7-5 loss to the Phillies when Bryce Harper ended the game with a grand slam.

Taking the mound this afternoon will be Jon Lester (9-8, 4.43 ERA) and Steven Brault (3-1, 4.33 ERA). It's hardly been a good season for the veteran Lester. He opened 3-1 with a 1.16 ERA after seven starts (Cubs were 5-2) but then lost three straight, allowing 16 ERs over just 14 innings. Lester did rebound with an excellent seven-start stretch from mid-June to late July, posting a 2.91 ERA (he was 4-1 and the team 5-2) but enters this contest with a 10.93 ERA over his last three starts. Moving to Brault, he has not factored in the decision in 13 of his 17 appearances, including NINE of his 11 starts. Brault came off the injured list on Aug 6, after missing a month due to a shoulder strain. It's no surprise that he has since notched two no-decisions, allowing two runs in 5.1 innings against the Milwaukee Brewers on Aug 6 and four runs in 4.2 innings at St Louis last Sunday. The Pirates lost BOTH games, just as they did in the two starts he made prior to going on the DL.

Yes, Chicago is now 23-39 on the road (only the Marlins own a worse road record in the NL), plus came to Pittsburgh 0-10-2 in their last 12 road series. However, as noted, the Pirates are a woeful 7-25 since the break. The Cubs are now ONE game back of the Cards in the division and are tied with Philadelphia for the second wild card. Chicago has LOTS to play for and I'll back the veteran Lester (a three-time World Series champion) here in Pittsburgh. He's 10-6 (3.18 ERA) in 20 career starts vs the Pirates (teams are 12-8) and is 3-0 with a 1.31 ERA in his last four starts at PNC Park. As for Brault, he has no career decisions (there's a SHOCKER!) and a 7.53 ERA in 12 career appearances against the Cubs, including three starts (team is 1-2). Cubs win! Cubs win!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Pitching Mismatch of the Month is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET.

The Atlanta Braves host the Los Angeles Dodgers in a three-game series starting Friday at Atlanta, in a meeting of division leaders. However, it may not be a meeting of "equals," as the Dodgers are 81-42 (tied with the Yankees for MLB's best record) and they own a WHOPPING 19 1/2-game lead in the NL West. Meanwhile, the 72-51 Braves own a much more modest 5 1/2-game lead over the Washington Nationals in the NL East. Perhaps both teams were looking ahead to this weekend series on Thursday, as LA fell for just the THIRD time in 15 games with a 13-7 setback at Miami (Marlins own the NL's worst record), while the Braves rallied from a late deficit against the Mets, only to fall 10-8.

The pitching matchup for tonight features Kenta Maeda (8-8, 4.12 ERA) and Mike Soroka (10-2, 2.32 ERA). LA owns MLB's lowest ERA (3.36) but of the team's six pitchers who have made at least 10 starts, Maeda is clearly the staff's "weak link." Maeda is off an excellent outing last Saturday against Arizona, striking out six while allowing three hits with no walks in seven shutout innings in a 4-0 victory. However, it ended an 11-start winless streak (team was 4-7). Maeda owned a 5.23 ERA in his previous12 games (11 starts), before Saturday.

Atlanta rookie Mike Soroka has put together a remarkable first full big-league season, ranking second in the NL in ERA and eighth in WHIP (1.08). He lost his first start of 2019 (4-1 back on April 18), when he allowed just one ER over five innings in that contest. He then won his next 10 decisions over a 15-start run (Braves were 13-2), before losing 5-3 to Washington back on July 20. He's had four straight no-decisions since that loss but has continued to give Atlanta solid efforts in almost every start this season. In fact, Soroka has surrendered one earned run or less in 14 of his 21 starts this season, as well as allowing more than three ERs just THREE times in those 21 starts.

Atlanta may not be quite in LA's 'class,' but Soroka over Maeda gives them a HUGE edge. Maeda has made 12 appearances each at home and on the road in 2019 and here's the 'tale of the tape.' He owns a 2.84 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and .176 BAA at Dodger Stadium but an ERA of 5.66, a WHIP of 1.37 and a BAA of .243 on the road. Soroka make this an easy choice!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Was Nats at 7:05 ET.

The Washington Nationals sat 19-31 back on the morning of May 24 but ended the first half on a 28-11 run. Washington split its first 22 games back from the break but have now won SEVEN of nine (including FOUR straight) to reach 65-55. Washington enters the weekend 5 1/2 back of the Braves in the NL East but the Nats are currently the NL's No. 1 wild card team, 1 1/2 games ahead of the Cubs (2nd wild card) and 2 1/2 up on the Brewers and Phils. Those 63-58 Milwaukee Brewers vist D.C, tonight for the first of a three-game series, as the teams continue to fight for postseason positioning. Milwaukee still has its sights set on the NL Central title (Brewers are currently just ONE game back!) and is beginning a stretch on Friday in which it will play six of seven series against contending NL teams, with the lone outlier being a two-game set against AL-powerhouse Houston. The Brewers visit Washington having won SIX of their last eight.

Adrian Houser (5-5, 4.00 ERA) takes the mound tonight for Milwaukee, opposed by Washington's Patrick Corbin (9-5, 3.41 ERA). Houser is coming off his best start of the season last Saturday against Texas, when he allowed just one run on three hits while striking out 10 in six innings to earn the3-2 win. However, he has bounced back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation this season and is 1-5 with a 6.00 ERA in his nine starts in 2019, with the Brewers going 3-6.

Corbin earned double digits in victories three times with Arizona (2013, '17 & '18) and could have reached the 10-win mark in 2019 his last time out. However, he was let down by the bullpen at the New York Mets last Sunday. He finished without a decision while allowing two runs on three hits and striking out eight in six innings (Mets scored twice in the 8th to win 4-3). Corbin last lost back on June 11 and takes a 10-game unbeaten streak into this start, having allowed three ERs or less in EIGHT of his last 10 outings (Nats are 7-3 in that stretch, with Corbin posting a 2.45 ERA in that span).

Milwaukee has fared poorly on the road vs lefties in 2019 (7-12, averaging just 4.1 RPG) and I expect Corbin to give them all sorts of trouble. Houser is off an excellent start but that effort was the EXCEPTION, not the rule in his nine starts this season (6.00 ERA). The Nats have scored SEVEN or more runs in THREE of their four wins during their current streak and should have little trouble reaching Houser.

Good luck...Larry