My 9* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the Astros.

I had a play on the Yankees yesterday (my lone winner, as I finished 1-2 overall.) New York held on for the 1-0 victory with ace Gerritt Cole on the mound.

The Yanks took two of three from Seattle in their previous series as well, before laying an egg in the finale with 4-0 loss.

With the All Star break on the horizon, and having alreday won this series, I think the Yanks get clasically caught "looking ahead" here.

The Astros though won't be taking this game so lightly. After a six-game win streak, Houston enters having lost three straight.

I say the home side "comes to play" today as it looks to avoid the series sweep.

This is a starting pitching matchup which favors the home side as well in my opinion.

New York goes with Jameson Taillon (4-4, 5.05 ERA), who earned a win over Seattle in his last outing, giving up one run and striking ou nine over seven innings.

Taillon has been satisfactory this year for New York, but one thing is for certain, he's been much better at home than on the road (is 3-1 with a 3.62 ERA in New York, compared to a terrible 1-3 with a ballooned 8.25 ERA away from friendly confines.)

Framber Valdez (5-1, 2.86) is coming off an outing to forget for the Astros, allowing six runs over five innings in what turned out to be a fortunate no-decision to the A's on Tuesday.

Valdez has been a bit shaky over his last two starts, but he's still 2-0 with a 3.52 ERA at home. I say he settles down here and rises to the occassion.

The Astros are also still 11-4 in their last 15 home games as a favorite in the -115 to -145 range.

Great value here on the revenge-minded home side.

The play is Houston.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* LEGEND is on the Angels.

I like the Angels to bounce back after their 7-3 loss here last night.

And after back-to-back victories, I expect the Mariners to take a predictable step back here. 

Despite their win/loss records, these starting pitchers are pretty evenly matched.

The Angels go with Patrick Sandoval (2-2, 3.86 ERA), who gave up two runs and struck out seven over five innings in a no-decision to the Orioles on Sunday. Over 49 innings Sandoval owns a respectable 53/22 K/W.

The Mariners turn to Chris Flexen (7-3, 3.80), who gave up one run over six innings in a victory over the Rangers on Sunday. 

Flexen has posted five straight quality starts. He's been much better at home than on the road, but as I say, for arguments sakes, I'm going to call the starters a "wash" today. 

Neither has that big of an advantage over the other. LA though has still won five of its last seven games.

It's also 4-0 in its last four vs. a right-handed starter and 4-0 in Sandoval's last four starts.

The Mariners on the other hand are just 2-6 in their last eight after back-to-back victories as underdogs.

Look for the big bats of LA to rebound and for Sandoval to do the rest.

The play is the Angels.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the New York Yankees.

I like the Yanks to build off their 4-0 win here yesterday.

New York has now won four of its last five. Garrett Cole (8-4, 2.91 ERA) will look to get the better of his former teams here.

Cole is coming off an outing to forget against the Mets, allowing four runs over 3.1 innings ni Game 1 of Sunday's doubleheader.

This is a big game and moment for Cole in my estimation. Since MLB started cracking down on pitchers, Cole has actually struggled. He's given up 21 runs over his last 34.1 innings of work.

His early sparkling numbers were unrealistic, but so too is this scuffling patch in my opinion. With one last opportunity to impress before the break, I think Cole steps up and delivers in this spot (he's 5-2 with 3.00 ERA on the road.)

It won't be a walk in the park facing Zach Greinke (8-2, 3.64), who is 6-1 with a 3.24 ERA over his last ten starts. 

One thing I'll point out though, is that Grienke's numbers are deceiving, as note that he's 5-0 with a 2.25 ERA on the road, while 3-2 with a ballooned 5.28 ERA at home.

New York has ground to make up and in my opinion, this one just means a lot more to it.

I'll take Cole at this price vs. his former team and expecting the visiting side to build off its solid victory yesterday here.

The play is New York.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Marlins.

I like the Marlins to bounce back after their 5-0 loss here to the Braves yesterday.

After three straight wins, Miami enters having lost two straight, but with its ace on the mound, it has to be feeling confident this afternoon.

The Braves hand the ball to Max Fried (5-5, 4.66 ERA), who comes in off a loss to the lowly Pirates last Monday, allowing six runs off seven hits over five innings. Fried had an unrealistic 2.63 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over his previous our starts, before then finally coming back down to Earth in that last outing.

Unfortunately for Fried as well, things aren't going to get any easier here, as he's a poor 1-2 with a ballooned 6.65 ERA on the road this season.

Trevor Rogers (7-5, 2.22 ERA), posted eight strikeouts and gave up two runs over five innings in a no-decision against the Dodgers on Monday. Over 97.1 innings of work he now has an impressive 118/32 K/W. 

I think further regression is in the cards for Fried, while all signs point to Miami bouncing back from yesterday's shutout with the superior starter on the mound.

Great value on the revenge-minded home side.

The play is Miami.

Good luck...Larry

The third pick of my STP (a 9*) is on the Cincinnati Reds.

The Reds have been playing well of late, but they'll be out to finish the first half strong and to bounce back after losing two of their last three, including yesterday's series opener here 5-3. 

The Brewers have won seven of their last ten, including two in a row, but I think the visiting side has the starting pitching advantage and that ultimately swings the odds in the visitors favor in my opinion.

Cincinnati hands the ball to Wade Miley (6-4, 3.06 ERA), who gave up two runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Cubs on Sunday. Over 88.1 innings of work Miley has a sharp 72/23 K/W, a 1.15 WHIP and note he's been great on the road with a current 3.00 ERA away from friendly confines.

Eric Lauer (3-3, 4.11) is coming off a win over the lowly Pirates on Saturday, giving up one run over six innings. 

Starts like that though have been few and far between for Lauer of late though, who still owns a 5.40 ERA over six June starts. 

The Reds are also 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge a two runs or greater road loss to an opponent.

That's all I need to know. I like Miley here. I like the Reds in this bounce-back revenge spot.

Great value on Cincinnati on Friday night.

Good luck...Larry

The second pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the Oakland A's.

Oakland hasn't been playing well lately, so it won't be taking anything for granted here.

The A's have lost six of their last ten, but the come in off a much-needed 2-1 win at Houston in last night's three-game series finale and I think they'll carry that momentum over here in this favorable starting pitching matchup.

The Rangers were playing better, but that stretch is now in the rear-view mirror again, as Texas has lost six of its last ten, including a 5-3 defeat here to the lowly Tigers two nights ago.

The A's see Cole Irvin (6-7, 3.56 ERA) toe the slab, and he'll be out to return to the winners circle after receiving a no-decision against the Red Sox last time out, allowing four runs over seven innings.

The rookie continues to impress, especially on the road where he's 4-2 with a 2.57 ERA.

Jordan Lyles (4-5, 4.98) counters for the Rangers, and he's off a win over the Mariners on Saturday, allowing two runs over six innings. 

Lyles has been decent of late, but I'll caution and expect a letdown here, as he owns a poor 5.14 ERA at home, despite a 2-1 record.

The Rangers are 21-23 at home. The A's are 23-17 on the road.

After a shaky stretch, look for Oakland to build off yesterday's win and to keep the foot on the gas until the All Star break.

The play is Oakland.

Good luck...Larry

The first pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the Chicago White Sox.

Dallas Keuchel hasn't been perfect this year, but I still think he'll get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. 

The White Sox have won seven their last ten, including two in a row at Minnesota most recently, while Baltimore enters this series having lost six of ten, including a 10-2 setback here two nights ago to the Blue Jays.

Keuchel (6-3, 4.48 ERA) comes in off an uncharacteristically poor start against the Tigers, allowing seven runs over four innings. With a chance to close out the first half of the season strong, I think that Keuchel gets back on track here in his final outing before the All Star game and in this favorable matchup.

The home side counters with Jorge Lopez (2-11, 6.02) who gave up four runs off seven hits over four innings in a loss to the Angels on Saturday. He's walked four batters in each of his last two starts and he's 1-4 with a 5.59 ERA at home.

Give me Keuchel to go deep and for the White Sox to strike first in this series.

Good luck...Larry 

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Twins.

Minnesota won't be lacking for motivation here as it's lost seven of its last ten, including two straight.

I think the home side finds a way to get the job done in the opener of this series against the Tigers, who come to town having won four of their last five, including a 5-3 road victory in Texas just yesterday afternoon.

The visitors go with Tarik Skubal (5-7, 4.35 ERA), who earned a win over the White Sox last week, despite allowing five runs over five innings. Skubal has been decent in his rookie year, but while he's 2-4 with a 3.75 ERA at home, he's just 3-3 with a 5.67 ERA on the road.

JA Happ (4-4, 6.09) won't be lacking for motivation either. Happ gave up six runs to the Royals on Friday over just four innings. 

Happ has the track record and pedigree to return to form and note that he still owns a respectable 29/10 K/W over his last 34 innings of work.

He's also 1-3 with an 8.40 ERA on the road, compared to 3-1 with a 4.37 ERA at home.

I like Happ over Skubal at home and considering the circumstances that each side finds itself coming into this one, Minnesota is for sure the correct call in my opinion.

Lay the price, the play is the Twins.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* GETAWAY GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Rockies.

Colorado has dropped the first two games of this series, but I expect it to finally bounce back here in the get-a-way game.

The Rockies came into this series having won six of their previous seven, but I think they'll indeed get the job done here with Chi Chi Gonzalez (2-5, 5.52 ERA) on the hill, who comes in off a no-decision agains the Cardinals despite allowing just two runs off seven hits over seven innings.

Gonzalez has actually been better at home than on the road, but the bottom line is his recent form is promising and I think he'll build off that performance here against this "on again, off again" Diamondbacks offense.

The home side counters with the volatile Jake Faria (0-0, 5.25), who was fortunate to earn a no-decision last time out against the Giants, allowing four runs over four innings.

Arizona has now lost all five games in which Faria has made an appearance and I expect that string of futility to continue here as well (he's 0-0 with a 7.71 ERA at home as well.)

I think Gonzalez and the Rockies bounce-back and take full advantage of this favorable spot.

Colorado should in fact be the favorite here, great line value. 

The play is the Rockies.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Phillies.

I had a play on Philadelphia yesterday and I think it'll find a way to get the job done here again as well against the hapless Cubs, who have now dropped 11 in a row.

No one likes going on extended losing streaks, and clearly the Cubs are desperate to "bounce back" here and get off the schneid, but the Phillies can't afford to take the foot off the gas either after a choppy and less than impressive first half.

MLB is an interesting sport, as every single game has to be looked at individually, because of the starting pitchers.

And in my opinion, Zack Wheeler is the correct call today.

Wheeler (6-4, 2.05 ERA) is the best kept secret in the National League, he most recently went 7.2 scoreless against the Padres on Friday. He struck out nine. Over his last two games he's posted an impressive 17/2 K/W. Wheeler is 3-2 with a 2.40 ERA on the road.

His counterpart today is Alec Mills (3-2, 4.85), who gave up two runs over five innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate loss to the Reds on Friday. Mills has only 42 innnings under his belt this season, posting a 35/15 K/W in the process.

The Cubs losing streak is going to end. Just not today. This is a great price on arguably the hottest pitcher in the league over the first half.

I'm banking on Wheeler continuing his recent dominance. 

Lay the short price, the play is Philadelphia.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Cincinnati Reds.

The Royals scored two in the bottom of the eighth and four in the bottom of the ninth yesterday to take a 7-6 victory, snapping a two-game slide.

The Reds had won five in a row coming into that game, but I think they can easily bounce back here in this favorable spot.

The visitors hand the ball to Sonny Gray (1-4, 3.27 ERA), who was limited to 86 pitches on his return from a groin injury. He threw 53 for strikes over five innings, allowing a single run and posting eight strikeouts. Despite his win/loss record, Gray has once again been solid this season, as evidenced by his 73/21 K/W over 55 innings of work.

The home side counters with Brady Singer (3-6, 4.74) who earned a no-decision vs. the Twins on Friday after allowing three runs over three innings. Singer has a decent 83/35 K/W over 79.2 innings, but I think he's overmatched here against the "fresh" and in form Gray.

Cincinnati is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge a road loss in which it allowed seven or more runs in as well.

I think Gray is the correct call here. Good price, the play is Cincinnati.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Rangers.

Texas pulled away for a 10-5 victory over the Tigers yesterday and I believe it'll find a way to "do it again" on Wednesday afternoon as well.

Detroit hands the ball to Casey Mize (5-5, 3.55 ERA), who has been a consistent bright spot for the Tigers all season, but who I think will be overmatched in this difficult road venue.

The Detroit rookie gave up two runs over three innings in a loss to the White Sox on Friday. As I said, Mize has been great, he has a decent 75/27 K/W over 91.1 innnings.

But the Rangers Kyle Gibson (6-0, 1.98) is in the midst of a career best campaign right now. Gibson most recently allowed one run and struck out seven over six innings in a no-decision to Seattle on Friday. 

Gibson has been unstoppable at home this year as well, going 5-0 with a minuscule 1.10 ERA.

I'll be the first to admit, clearly, at some point, Gibson is due for a major letdown. That letdown is for sure on the horizon, but this is an extremely favorable matchup and it's one which I expect the veteran to make the most of.

I believe that Texas should in fact be a much larger favorite considering the talent discrepancy between these starting pitchers.

Lay it, the play is the Rangers.

Good luck...Larry

The first pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the Diamondbacks.

Both Jon Gray of the Rockies and Merril Kelly of the Diamondbacks have been decent of late.

But Kelly's been better and I think he has a major advantage here on home soil.

Gray (5-6, 3.89 ERA) gave up two runs over six innings in a win over the lowly Pirates in his last outing. He also gave up four walks.

Gray's struggled on the road though, going 0-4 with a ballooned 5.43 ERA away from friendly confines.

Kelly (5-7, 4.67 ERA) beat San Francisco on Thursday, allowing three runs with seven strikeouts over seven innings. 

Kelly has won three straight starts, giving up only four runs spanning his last 20 innings of work (to go along with 17 strikeouts.) 

Note that he's also been at his best at home, going 3-2 with a 3.66 ERA.

At this price and considering his opponents road struggles, Kelly is the correct call here in my opinion.

Lay it, the play is Arizona.

Good luck...Larry

The second pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the Texas Rangers.

Detroit's won four of its last five and three in a row. I say the Tigers finally stumble here.

The Rangers are looking to get back on track here, as they've lost three of four, including two in a row.

The visitors see Jose Urena (2-8, 6.22 ERA) toe the slab. Urena most recently was shelled for four runs over 3.1 innings in a no-decision in Game 1 of a double-header vs. Cleveland on Wednesday. 

He gave up four solo home runs in the setback and he's now conceded 11 on the season. 

He's actually been better on the road than at home, but he's still overmatched here facing Dane Dunning (3-6, 4.38), who enters off consecutive decent outings, most recently going four scoreless against Oakland on Thursday.

Over 74 innings of work Dunning has a sharp 79/27 K/W and I believe he'll be the difference-maker for the Rangers this evening.

Considering the talent discrepancy of these starting pitchers, I think this line should/could in fact be much larger.

I'm laying the price and expecting a decisive outcome.

The play is Texas.

Good luck...Larry

The third pick of my STP (a 9*) is on the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Phillies smashed the Cubs 13-3 here yesterday and I expect a similar style beatdown tonight as well.

The visitors see ace Aaron Nola (5-5, 4.44 ERA) take the mound tonight and he'll be out to rebound after allowing seven runs over 4.2 innings in a loss to the Marlins on Wednesday.

The silver-lining was that he'd strike out 11. Over 95.1 innings of work, Nola owns a great 118/22 K/W and that includes a 23/1 mark over his last two starts. I say Nola gets right back on track after that embarrassing effort last time out.

The Cubs counter with the volatile Jake Arrieta (5-8, 5.57), who was shelled for six runs off four hits over just 1.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Brewers on Wednesday.

He's been better at home than on the road, but Arrieta is still just 3-4 with a ballooned 6.98 ERA in all "night" games this season.

I'm banking on the big bats of the Phillies to continue the "hit parade" on Tuesday night and I expect Nola to settle back down and to take advantage of this favorable matchup.

Lay the short price, the play is Philadelphia.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* WEEKLY WIPE-OUT WINNER is on the Rangers.

I played against Texas last night in Seattle's 4-1 win, but now that the Rangers have returned home, I love their chances to get back on track in what I deem to be a very favorable matchup.

The Tigers have been playing better of late, but off a 6-5 win over the White Sox at home and a series victory over their rival, a letdown is imminent on the road in my opinion, a place where they're just 17-24 so far.

Texas is 13-30 on the road, and 20-21 at home.

The Tigers hand the ball to Wily Peralta (1-1, 3.21 ERA), who has 14 innings under his belt so far this season. The book is out on the veteran, as the sample size is still too small.

I say Peralta struggles in a starters role on the road though against this hungry Rangers home side.

Texas goes with Kolby Allard (2-4, 3.46), who has a great 1.08 WHIP and 49/11 K/W over 52 innings of work this year. He's off a loss to the A's despite allowing three runs and striking out five over six innings.

Allard has to be feeling confident he can bounce back here, as he sports a very respectable 3.19 ERA at home this season.

I think this line could/should in fact be larger, and that's why the value swings to the Rangers in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NL WEST GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Giants.

The Giants won here 6-5 last night and I think they'll find a way to get the job done here as well.

San Franisco hands the ball to Anthony DeSclafani (8-3, 2.91 ERA), who enters off a loss despite allowing three runs with six strikeouts, his first setback in over a month. 

DeSclafani though has exceeded expectations to this point in San Francisco, as he's allowed three runs or less in six straight starts.

Note as well that he's 4-2 with a tiny 2.16 ERA on the road this season.

The home side will see Caleb Smith (2-4, 3.08) take the hill, he most recently is coming off a loss to the Cardinals on Tuesday, allowing two runs over five innings. Smith has been decent overall, but he's struggled with command of late, posting a 4.9 K/9 over his last three starts.

The Diamondbacks have been poor in this spot for bettors as well, going just 19-43 this season vs. right-handed starters, while also going only 12-33 this year vs. clubs with winning records.

The Giants on the other hand are 27-15 this year vs. teams with losing records.

I like DeSclafani to coninue his hot hurling on the road and all things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value." 

The play is San Francisco.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* SITUATIONAL MISMATCH is on the Mariners.

Seattle had won three in a row before yestreday's 7-3 setback to the Rangers. With a chance for a series victory and with the superior starting pitcher on the hill for them in my opinion, I like the Mariners to bounce-back on Sunday.

The Rangers hand the ball to Mike Foltynewicz (2-7, 5.17 ERA), who gave up two runs over seven innings in a win over Oakland on Tuesday. He's allowed 19 home runs this year, which ranks second in the majors.

Foltynewicz has also been terrible on the road this year, going just 1-3 with a ballooned 6.37 ERA thus far.

The home side goes with Chris Flexen (6-3, 3.97), who posted a no-decision in his last outing, allowing three runs off seven hits over five innings vs. the Blue Jays on Tuesday.

The rookie has been great this year for Seattle, especially at home where he's 4-2 with a 2.06 ERA.

Look for Flexen to keep flexin' and for the Mariners to bounce-back from yesterday's defeat.

The play is Seattle.

Good luck...Larry

The third pick of my STP (a 9*) is on the Minnesota Twins.

The Twins come in desperate to break a five-game slide. They've lost the first two games of this series, but I believe they'll finally get off the schneid here with a victory.

The vistors go with Kenta Maeda (3-3, 5.56 ERA), who comes in off a loss to the White Sox on Tuesday, allowing seven runs over 4.2 innings. Maeda has been better at home than on the road this season, but I still trust him over his counterpart Brad Keller this afternoon.

Keller (6-8, 6.67), gave up six runs off ten hits over five innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Red Sox on Tuesday. 

Keller owns the highest ERA and WHIP (1.88) among qualified pitchers and considering how hungry Minnesota is here today, I believe those struggles continue for him.

The Twins are also 7-2 in their last nine after a five games or longer losing streak.

All things considered, a great price here on Minnesota.

Good luck...Larry

The first pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Phillies won 4-2 yesterday and I think the offer great value in the small upset role here on Sunday as well.

The Padres send Blake Snell (3-3, 5.29 ERA) to the hill. Snell was placed on the COVID IL out of a precautionary measure last week, but he never tested postitive. 

Snell has been "hit or miss" this year, that's for sure. He's been great at home (3-0, 1.45 ERA), but a disaster on the road (0-3, 10.53).

The home side sends veteran Vince Velasquez (3-2, 4.22) to counter, and he's off a strong start agaisnt the Mariners, holding them scoreless over seven innings. 

Velasquez has been inconsistent as well this year, but he's consistently been at his best at home, coming in with a solid 2-0, 3.99 ERA record here so far.

Philadelphia has its foot on the gas here at home before the All Star break and with a chance at a rare series sweep, I look for it to find a way to deliver on Sunday.

The play is San Diego.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* LEGEND is on the Oakland Atheltics.

The Red Sox managed a 3-2 win here yesterday, but I like the A's to bounce-back and find a way to deliver in this revenge spot on Saturday.

The visitors go with the volatile Garrett Richards (4-5, 4.96 ERA), who was rocked for five runs off 11 hits over just 5.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Royals on Monday. 

Richards got out to a decent start to the season, but he's been trending in the other direction over the last month, as he's now been crushed for 20 runs over his last 16.2 innings of work.

Cole Irvin (6-7, 3.64) has been better than anyone could have expected in his first year for the A's. I think he'll carry his recent momentum over here, as he most recently earned a strong win over a dangerous Giants' team in interleague action last Sunday, going eight scoreless and striking out eight. 

Over five June starts Irvin owns a sharp 2.64 ERA and I don't see any reason why he can't continue his recent form of elite play at home.

The A's are also 7-3 in their last ten in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to two or less runs in.

I'm banking on this 70% trend improving after tonight.

Great value on a red hot hurler and the revenge-minded home side.

The play is the A's.

Good luck...Larry

The first pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the Cincinnati Reds.

Cincinnati beat the Cubs 2-1 yesterday and I believe it'll find a way to deliver on Saturday afternoon as well.

Tyler Mahle has been better on the road than at home for the Reds, but I still trust him over the Cubs' volatile starter today in Adbert Alzolay.

Mahle (7-3, 3.74 ERA), gave up four runs and struck out seven over six innings in a loss to the Braves in his last outing. Over 84.1 innings of work Mahle now owns a sharp 105/27 K/W.

Alzolay (4-7, 4.55) most recently got rocked for six runs off five hits over just three innings in a loss to the Dodgers. It was probably his worst start of the season.

Overall he's just 1-5 with a 5.38 ERA on the road.

These teams are trending in opposite directions. The Cubs have lost seven in a row, while the Reds have won six of ten, including two straight.

With what I believe to be the vastly superior starting pitcher on the hill today for them, I expect the Reds to take advantage.

Lay the price, the play is Cincinnati.

Good luck...Larry

The third pick of my STP (a 9*) is on the Atlanta Braves.

Atlanta won 1-0 yesterday and I think it'll find a way to secure a victory here as well.

The Marlins hand the ball to Sandy Alcantara (4-7, 3.12), who gave up five earned runs over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Nationals in his last outing. He's just 3-4 with a 3.75 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with rookie phenom Kyle Muller (1-1, 2.70), who comes in off a win over the Reds on Sunday, holding them to zero runs over five innings to go along with nine strikeouts. Over ten innings the 6 foot 7 rookie owns a 13/4 K/W.

The Braves can't afford to take the foot off the gas just before the All Star break. They've won three in a row and I say they take advantage of this favorable spot.

Lay the price, the play is Atlanta.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AL WEST GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Rangers.

Texas was the laughing-stock of the league over the first month and a half, but it's playing it best ball of the season right now. I think that trend continues here.

The Rangers have won five of their last six, including yesterday's contest at the A's by a score of 8-3. 

And now they send their ace to the mound in Kyle Gibson (6-0, 2.00 ERA), who earned a win over the Royals in his last outing, going seven scorless and striking out ten. Gibson has now allowed two or fewer runs in his last eight starts, posting a 1.68 ERA in that span.

He's also 1-0 with a 3.14 ERA on the road and 4-0 with a 1.79 ERA in all "night" games.

The Mariners also got off to a terrible start, and they've also been playing much better of late, entering having won seven of their last ten, including two in a row.

They counter with Logan Gilbert (2-2, 4.25), who's last start was suspended in the third inning vs. the White Sox due to a rain-out. 

Gilbert has exceeded expectations for the Mariners this year, but note that the rookie is a poor 0-2 with a ballooned 6.46 ERA at home.

At this price, I love Gibson and the red hot Rangers.

The play is Texas.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the Phillies.

The Philles' game got postponed yesterday.

They most recently lost 11-6 to Miami. The Padres lost 5-4 at the Reds yesterday, breaking a three-game win streak.

I think the better rested home side is the correct call in the opener of this one though.

Chris Paddack (4-5, 4.64 ERA) gave up five runs off eight hits over 2.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision to the D-Backs last Friday. 

Paddack has struggled with consistency from gaem-to-game and I believe that pattern continues here in this difficult road venue.

The home side counters with the steady Zach Wheeler (6-4, 2.20) who went seven shutout innings in a win over the Mets on Sunday. 

To go along with his great ERA, Wheeler also sports a tiny 0.97 WHIP and a massive 130/25 K/W over 106.1 innings. 

And note, he's been particularly tough at home this year, going 3-2 with a 2.06 ERA in Philadelphia.

Wheeler is the most "under the radar" starting pitcher in the National League and I think we're getting fantastic value on him here.

The play is Philadelphia.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NL DOG OF THE MONTH is on the Braves.

Do I think that Atlanta can match its 20-2 win here yesterday over the Mets?

I don't at all. But I do think the Braves are going to find a way to build off yesterday's victory with another one here.

The Mets send ace Jacob deGrom (7-2, 0.69 ERA), who comes in off a no-decision to the Phillies in his last outing, allowing two runs over six innings. 

Clearly, deGrom is having a great year. He's been one of MLB's best over the last five years and it's basically impossible to say anything negative about him.

So I'm not going to bother to try to. I simply feel he's in the wrong place at the wrong time here. I don't trust the Mets' bullpen on the road either and the bottom line is, I think that Braves' starter Ian Anderson can match deGrom inning for inning.

Anderson (5-4, 3.42) will be hungry to return to the winners circle here after allowing three runs and striking out nine in an unfortunate loss to the Reds on Saturday. 

Over 81.2 innings of work Anderson owns a great 88/29 K/W.

Andreson faced the Mets two weeks ago and he conceded no runs over five innings in what turned out to be a 1-0 victory.

As I stated up top, I don't trust the Mets as a big road favorite here, despite deGrom getting the start.

This one has "u-p-s-e-t" written all over it.

The play is Atlanta.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* SITUATIONAL MISMATCH is on the White Sox.

I had a play on the White Sox last night and they won big. I think they're going to roll again here on Sunday in the getaway game.

The Twins go with Jose Berrios (7-2, 3.41 ERA) who gave up three runs over six innings in a no-decision to the the Rangers on Friday. 

Berrios has been a consistent bright spot for this struggling Twins' rotation this season, but I think he's just in the wrong place at the wrong time today.

The home side counters with Carlos Rodon (6-3, 2.06) who will be eager to get back on track after a loss to the Mariners in his last outing, allowing three runs with eight strikeouts over five innings.

Over 78.2 innings of work this season Rodon now owns a tiny 0.90 WHIP and sharp 113/24 K/W over 78.2 innings of work. 

Chicago is also 7-3 in its last ten after scoring ten or more runs in a home victory in its last outing.

I like the home side to keep the foot on the gas this afternoon.

The price is right here, the play is the White Sox.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MLB Division Game of the Year (AL Central) is on the White Sox.

The Twins won the AL Central last season for the second straight season, making it three playoff appearances for Minnesota in the previous four seasons. Meanwhile, the White Sox went 35-25 and grabbed a postseason spot in 2020's expanded playoff field, ending an 11-year postseason drought for Chicago. Entering 2021, Chicago, Cleveland and Minnesota (all made the playoffs in 2020) were expected to contend for the division title or for one of the AL's two wild card spots. That's been the case for the first-place White Sox (46-32) and the second-place Indians (42-33) but the Twins have seen their season "get away from them," as they sit 33-44, 12 1/2 games back of Chicago and 10 back of Cleveland.

The two teams were set to open a four-game series in Chicago on Monday but that game was postponed. The teams took the field last night but while the first-place White Sox were struggling (had lost SEVEN of nine), the Twins were on a "mini roll' with wins in SEVEN of their previous nine. However, the White Sox got the 7-6 win last night. The series continues Wednesday night with Minnesota rookie Bailey Ober (0-0, 4.64 ERA) taking the mound against Chicago's Dylan Cease (6-3, 3.81 ERA). Ober made his MLB debut back on May 18 against the White Sox, allowing four ERs over four innings in a game Minnesota would win 5-4 (he had a no-decision). This marks his sixth start of the season (also of his career) and he's yet to earn a decision (team is 3-2). However, it doesn't inspire confidence that in his most recent start, he lasted a modest 4.1 innings while allowing six hits, two walks and four ERs in a 10-7 team loss.

Dylan Cease is in his third season, going 9-11 with a 5.00 ERA over 26 starts in 2019 and 2020. He's made 15 starts in 2021 but note that the White Sox are 9-3 in his last 12. What's more notable is his home and away dichotomy. Cease owns a 6.08 ERA in eight road starts (team is 3-5) but a 1.63 ERA and .196 BAA in seven home starts, with Chicago going 6-1. Cease and the White Sox are the play.

Good luck...Larry

The third pick in my STP (a 10*) is on the Dodgers.

The Dodgers have won four in a row. They beat the Giants 3-2 here last night in the opener and I expect them to find a way to another victory on Tuesday.

Clearly, this is a much-anticipated starting pitching matchup.

Kevin Gausman (8-1, 1.49 ERA) of the Giants and Walker Buehler (7-1, 2.51) of the Dodgers are for all intents and purposes, completely even in this matchup.

Buehler has a 0.92 WHIP and Gausman has a 0.77.

Both teams have done really well, both at home and on the road, but the Dodgers are 7-1 in their last eight as a home favorite in the -135 to -155 range. 

The Giants managed 11 hits yesterday to the Dodgers 5, and still lost 3-2. I can't see San Francisco getting nearly that many today off of Buehler.

Look for the "small ball" Dodgers to do what they do best and to get another victory at the end of the night.

The play is LA.

Good luck...Larry

The second pick in my STP (an 8*) is on the White Sox.

I had a play on this game yesterday, and it got postponed. But all of the analysis on the pick, directly applies to this one, as it's the exact same situation and pitchers going here:

Chicago has lost seven of its last ten games, so it won't be taking anything for granted in this series, especially against an improving Twins side that's also out to gain ground after a terrible start to the season.

The White Sox come in off a much needed 7-5 home win over the Mariners after dropping the first two games of their weekend series, and I expect them to build off that effort here in what I believe to be a favorable starting pitching matchup.

The vistors go with Kenta Maeda (3-2, 4.85 ERA) who earned a win over the lowly Rangers on Sunday, allowing two runs over five innings. Maeda has been decent, not great this season. 

And while he does own a 2-1 record on the road, his ERA away from friendly confines climbs to a poor 5.43.

The home side counters with Lucas Giolito (5-5, 3.80) who comes in off a strong performance against the Pirates, allowing two runs and striking out seven over six innings, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his effort.

Giolito has gotten progressively stronger with each start and he's now posted a 23/5 K/W over his last 18 innings of work.

He also has 110 strikeouts over 87.2 frames this season (he also owns a 3.35 ERA at home, compared to 5.58 on the road.)

I like Giolito to get the better of Maeda, who I believe will continue to struggle with his road starts.

Lay the reasonable price, the play is Chicago.

Good luck...Larry

The first pick in my STP (an 8*), is on the Padres.

The Padres held on for a 5-4 win over the Diamondbacks two nights ago. They've won nine of their last ten and I think they can keep the good times rolling here in what shapes up to be a favorable starting pitching matchup for them.

San Diego goes with Blake Snell (3-3, 5.29 ERA), who went five scoreless against the Dodgers on Tuesday, striking out five in the process. 

Snell's home and away records are disproportionate. He's 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA at home and 0-3 with a 10.53 ERA on the road. He's not nearly as good as his home record, nor nearly as poor as his road record.

The Reds are off a big 12-4 win over Philadelphia yesterday, but I think they'll take a step back with rookie Tony Santillan on the mound.

Santillan (1-1, 3.29), gave up one run and struck out eight over six innings in a win over Atlanta in his last outing for his first career victory. Clearly the book is still out on the rookie.

I think Snell is the correct call here. Look for San Diego to give their "ace" enough support to pull off a solid victory as the road favorite on Tuesday night.

The play is the Padres.

Good luck...Larry

The third pick of my STP (a 9*), is on the Royals.

I like the Royals to bounce back here after yesterday's humbling 8-0 defeat.

KC won't be lacking for motivation after four straight losses now.

The visitors hand the ball to Brady Singer (3-5, 4.77 ERA), who is coming off a no-decision to the Yankees on Tuesday, allowing two runs over four innings. 

Singer has struggled with consistency from game-to-game, but I still give him the nod here over his inconsitent counterpart Jordan Lyles.

Lyles (2-5, 5.47) returns to the Rangers' rotation to make this start. He's allowed 16 home runs over 77.1 innings of work. He has a 6.01 ERA at home.

I like the Royals to bounce back in the finale of this series and everything points to the Rangers having a letdown after two straight vitories.

Good price, the play is Kansas City.

Good luck...Larry

The first pick of my STP (an 8*), is on the Cardinals.

Neither of these starting pitchers instills a ton of confidence obviously, but I still think the Cards have the advantage here and I look for them to build off their 3-1 victory last night.

The visitors hand the ball to Max Kranick (0-0, 0.00 ERA), who makes his MLB debut today. He had seven starts in the minors and posted a mediocre 4.37 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.

He'll be opposed by Cards' rookie Johan Oviedo (0-3, 4.62), who gave up six runs (although just two earned), over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Tigers on Tuesday.

Previous to that he went seven shutout innings and struck out six in an unfortunate no-decision to the Marlins.

I say Oviedo is not as bad as his last start, and not as good as his first. But I think even his limited time throwing at this level gives him a big "leg-up" on his counterpart today.

This line could easily be higher in my opinion. I'm laying the price, the play is St. Louis.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* 37-CLUB PLAY is on the Giants.

I like the Giants to build off their 2-0 win last night.

The A's hand the ball to Frankie Montas (7-7, 4.79 ERA), who got shelled for eight runs off nine hits over five innings in a loss to the lowly Rangers on Monday. Over his last seven starts Montas is a poor 2-5 with a 4.65 ERA He also owns a 5.11 ERA in all road games and a 5-6, 5.15 ERA in all "night" contests.

Long story short, I do not expect Montas to suddenly "throw a switch" here and solve all his issues from his last start.

Instead, I expect him to struggle throwing opposite his consistent counterpart Alex Wood (6-3, 4.09), who gave up six runs as well in a loss to the Phillies in his last outing. 

Unlike Montas though, starts like that have been few and far between for Wood this year. He still owns a sharp 65/21 K/W over 66 innings this year and at this price, I think he's the correct call in this starting pitching matchup.

I look for San Francisco to take advantage of the shaky Montas at the road and for Wood to bounce-back in friendly confines.

Lay the short price, the play is San Francisco.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* WIPE-OUT WINNER is on the Red Sox.

I like the Red Sox to build off their 5-3 win here yesterday over New York.

The Yankees hand the ball to Jordan Montgomery (3-1, 4.03 ERA), who gav eup one run off three hits over five innings in a no-decision to the A's on Sunday. 

He's been good this year, but note that while Montgomery is 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA at home, he's just 1-0 with a 5.79 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Nate Eovaldi (7-4, 3.90) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Royals, allowing four runs over four innings. Starts like that have been few and far between for Eovaldi all season though and he has to be feeling confident he'll bounce back here as he sports a sharp 3-1, 2.56 ERA record in all "night" contests this season.

It's always a war when these two clubs meet, but all things considered, I believe Eovaldi should in fact be a bigger favorite in this one.

Good value on Boston Saturday.

Good luck...Larry

The first part of my STP (an 8*) is on the Rays.

I like the Rays to build off their 4-3 win yesterday.

The visitors hand the ball to Alex Cobb (5-2, 4.41 ERA), who earned a win over the Tigers on Friday, allowing one run over five innings. 

Note though, while Cobb is 3-1 with a 2.87 ERA at home, he's only 2-1 with a ballooned 6.72 ERA on the road.

I like Shane McClanahan in this spot. He's coming off a strong outing too, allowing one run over six innings with eight strikeouts in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision to the Mariners. Over 44.2 innings McClanahan has a sharp 54/14 K/W (he's also interestingly 2-0 with a 3.73 ERA in all "day" games.)

I think Cobb takes a step back on the road here, while everything points to McClanahan continuing his steady performance at home.

Lay the price, the play is Tampa.

Good luck...Larry

Houston Astros (R) Valdez @ Detroit Tigers (R) Mize +200 1:10 EST

The second part of my STP (an 8*) is on the Tigers in the early game.

This is the opener of a double-header. The Astros are sure playing well, as they've won 11 in a row. At some point Houston's going to have a letdown though, and I predict that's going to come here in the opener.

Houston has posted 25 runs over its last two wins, while allowing just three.

Framber Valdez (4-0, 1.67 ERA) had his Friday start postponed. It's difficult to say anything negative at all about Valdez, so I won't bother. I just feel that Casey Mize is going to be able to match him inning for inning in this abbreviated format.

Mize (4-4, 3.61) gave up three runs and a walk while striking out four in a no-decision to the Angels on Sunday. He owns a great 66:24 K:BB over 82.1 innings.

Detroit is also 7-3 in its last in trying to revenge a home loss in which it allowed ten or more runs in.

I think this is a great spot for a Houston letdown.

The play is Detroit.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* INTERLEAGUE THROW-DOWN is on the Giants.

The Giants have won eight of ten and three in a row and I think they'll find a way to get the job done here in the opener of this interleague series.

The visitors go with Sean Manaea (6-3, 3.01 ERA), who gave up two runs over five innings in an unfortunate loss to the Yanks in his last outing. Here's another difficult road venue in which I believe his team will have problems giving him run support again.

Because they face Johnny Cueto (5-3, 4.05), who enters off a win over the Phillies on Friday, allowing three runs and striking out five over six innings. 

Cueto has been tough at home as well, going just 1-1 with a 5.02 ERA on the road, but 4-2 with a 3.42 ERA on the road. 

I don't trust the A's offense of late. I also think Cueto is the correct call on his home field.

And considering those two big factors working in the Giants' favor, I actually feel that this line could in fact be a bit larger.

That swings the value to the Giants in my opinion in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SITUATIONAL MISMATCH is on the Marlins.

The Marlins lost here 7-3 last night, but I think they'll bounce-back on Friday.

The Nationals hand the ball to Jon Lester (1-2, 3.96 ERA), who earned his first win of the season on Saturday in the second game of a double-heder against the light-hitting Mets, alowing two runs over six innings. 

Lester has been decent, but he's been better at home (3.85 ERA), than on the road (4.54).

The home side counters with Pablo Lopez (3-4, 2.86), who comes in off one of the best starts of his career, going seven scoreless in a win over the Cubs, also going on to strike out seven in the process. He now owns an 85/21 K/W and note that despite just a 1-3 record, he has a tiny 1.91 ERA at home.

Lopez is on fire and I believe he carries that momentum over into this favorable matchup.

Great price, the play is Miami.

Good luck...Larry

The third pick of my STP is a 10* play on the Dodgers.

I like the Dodgers to bounce back after last night's 3-2 loss. LA scored a run in both the eigth and ninth innings, but it just wasn't enough.

But I think the champs bounce back with Trevor Bauer (7-5, 2.45 ERA) on the hill tonight, he most recently earned a win over the D-Backs, going seven scoreless, allowing just three hits and striking out eight. Bauer continues to dominate in almost every statistical category there in pitching and I don't see that slowing down any time soon.

The ome side counters with Joe Musgrove (4-6, 2.28), who also comes in off a strong outing, going seven scoreless against the Reds on Thursday. Musgrove has been on the end of some heartbreaking losses this year, and tonight also sets up as being one of "those" types of nights.

LA has done well in this spot for bettors, going 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it was held to two or less runs in.

Look for LA to get back into the winners circle on Wednesday night.

Good luck...Larry

The second pick of my STP is an 8* play on the A's.

The bottom line is, I think this is a bigger pitching mismatch than what this line is trying to lead us to believe.

The A's smashed the Rangers 13-6 here last night and I expect a similar outcome here as well.

James Kaprielian (4-1, 2.84 ERA) gave up three runs over six innings while also striking out seven in a win over the Yankees in his last outing. 

Here's a line-up which I think Kaprielian can take advantage of for sure. Certainly I like him to get the better of his volatile counterpart Mike Foltynewicz (1-7, 5.59), who gave up four runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Twins on Friday. 

Oakland is also 8-2 in its last ten after scoring 12 or more runs in a victory in its last outing.

As I stated above, this line could/should in fact be larger. I'm laying the price on the Athletics in this one.

Good luck...Larry

The first pick of my STP is an 8* play on the Rays.

I like the Rays to bounce back here after yeesterday's 9-5 loss in which they conceded four runs in the top of the tenth inning.

The Red Sox hand the ball to Garrett Richards (4-4, 4.36 ERA) who was crushed by the Braves on Wednesday, allowing six runs off seven hits over just four innings. It was the second outing in a row that he's given up four earned runs. 

Rich Hill (5-2, 3.64) is coming off a no-decision vs. the Mariners most recently for the homoe side, he gave up four runs and struck out five over five innings. 

Both of these veterans have seen better days. Each started out hot, but each is now scuffling with consistency from game-to-game.

These starters are essentially a "wash." But I don't trust the Red Sox bullpen on the road. I do trust the Rays' pen at home, despite last night extra-innings loss.

Considering the circumstances, I think this line could/should in fact be higher, and that swings the value to Tampa.

The play is the Rays.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* IL TUESDAY BATTLE is on the Tigers.

Detroit won three in a row, and then it lost three in a row.

The Tigers though broke that three-game slide with a 5-3 win over the Angels in their last game.

Now they return home to face a Cardinals team that lost three of four at the Braves over the weekend.

St. Louis has struggled all season, while Detroit has played better of late.

The visiting side goes with Johan Oviedo (0-2, 4.58 ERA), who comes in off seven shutout innings against the Marlins on Wednesday, winning 1-0. It was the first time all season though that he has allowed less than two runs.

Tyler Skubal (4-7, 4.36) allowed three runs with seven strikeouts over six innings in a win over the Royals on Wednesday.

Over 66 innings Skubal has a great 81/31 K/BB.

He also hasn't given up more than three earned runs in any of his last six starts.

I think the Tigers keep the momentum from their last victory rolling here. I also believe that Skubal is the correct call between these starting pitchers.

All things considered, a great price on Detroit in this matchup.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* IL BATTLE is on the Twins.

The Reds aren't playing well. They always play better at home than on the road. They don't play well as a road favorite. They also don't do particularly well in road interleague games.

The Twins have had a disappointing season, but they come in playing their best ball so far and I think they offer great value as a small home dog in this situation.

After winning six in a row, the Reds have lost four straight. All four losses came in San Diego over the weekend, including a close 3-2 setback last night.

The Twins on the other hand come in having won four in a row, including three straight in Texas over the weekend.

JA Happ (3-3, 6.12 ERA) gave up six runs over four innings in a loss to the Mariners in his last start for the Twins. 

Happ opened the season on fire, but he's since come back down to Earth. Clearly though he wont' be lacking for motivation today, and that's important to me here.

Also note that he's done much better at home (2-1, 4.35 ERA), than on the road (1-2, 8.04).

His counterpart is Tyler Mahle (7-2, 3.39), who is coming off a good victory over Milwaukee on Wednesday, allowing one run over six innings. 

Mahle has been a consistent bright spot in the Reds rotation this year. He's also been better on the road than at home.

It's difficult to say anything negative about Mahle. As I say, he's been a bright spot for the Reds this year. Cincinnati's bullpen though has been terrible and its inconsistencies at the plate are always an issue.

I don't trust the Reds as a favorite on the road in this Interleague matchup at all. I look for Happ to match Mahle and for the Twins to ultimately build on their recent momentum.

The play is Minnesota.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* WEEKEND WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Giants.

San Francisco is off a 5-3 win here yesterday and I say it keeps the foot on the gas in this interesting matchup on Saturday afternoon.

The visitors go with ace Aaron Nola (5-4, 3.69 ERA), who gave up zero runs over 7.2 scoreless innings in a victory over the Yankess on Sunday. Previous to that he'd allowed at least three runs in each of his last two outings. 

While Nola is a great 3-1 with a 2.51 ERA at home, he's a poor 2-3 with a 5.05 ERA on the road.

He'll be opposed by the Giants' Alex Wood (6-3, 3.71), who gave up two runs and struck out seven over six innings in a win over the Diamondbacks. 

It was a bounce-back performance for Wood, who had struggled previous to that leading up (note that he's 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in all "day" games.)

Nola is better at home than on the road, and so is his team.

The Giants are undervalued here in my opinion. I think San Francisco has the better bullpen and I expect Wood to be able to easily match Nola inning for inning.

Everything points to a comfortable home side victory here.

The play is San Francisco.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Athletics.

The A's held on for a 5-3 win last night and I believe they'll build off that victory and find a way to get the job done here as well.

The visiting side hands the ball to ace Chris Bassitt (7-2, 3.43 ERA), who gave up two runs over six innings in a win over the Royals on Sunday. He's on top form right now, having won four straight and everything points to that progression continuing on Saturday in my opinion.

The Yanks go with Domingo German (4-4, 3.88), who suddenly comes in struggling, in fact he's off his worst start of the year, getting shelled for seven runs off ten hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Phillies last weekend. He's now 0-2 with a 5.66 ERA over his last four starts. 

Oakland is rolling, as it's 13-2 in its last 15 games and 19-9 on the road overall.

Look for Bassitt to continue to roll here. Great value on the red hot Athletics.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Cardinals.

The Braves fell 10-8 here to the Red Sox last night, while the Cardinals held on for a 1-0 win at home over the Marlins.

After a poor stretch, the Cardinals have now won three in a row and I like their chances to "stun" their opponent in this one.

John Gant (4-4, 3.36 ERA) gets the call for St. Louis, and while he's coming off an outing to forget in which he allowed five runs over 1.2 innings to the Cubs, starts like that have truly been few and far between.

Gant has also been great on the road, going 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA.

Charlie Morton (5-3, 4.50) counters for Atlanta and he's coming off a crummy outing as well, allowing four runs and four walks over four innings in a loss to the Marlins on Friday.

Note that Morton's road ERA (4.32), is better than his home ERA (4.81).

I reserve these releases for just such a situation. I like Gant to bounce back here and I look for the hungry Cardinals to keep the momentum rolling and to earn a hard-fought upset.

The play is St. Louis.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NATIONAL LEAGUE GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Mets.

I think Marcus Stroman, at this price and throwing at home, is the correct call in this particular matchup.

The Cubs go with Kyle Hendricks (8-4, 4.46 ERA), who gave up two runs over six innings in a win over the Cardinals on Saturday. 

Hendricks has won six in a row, but note that he's been plagued by the long-ball of late, allowing eight home runs over just his last four starts alone.

Stroman (6-4, 2.33), is coming off a dominant win as well on Saturday, as he allowed one run over 6.1 innings against the hard-hitting Padres. 

Stroman has won three in a row and he's absolutely been at his best on this field this season, going 3-1 with a tiny 1.91 ERA thus far.

With a chance to sweep the Cubs, and with the much more consistent starter behind them, I like the Mets to get the job done here in the finale.

Lay the short price, the play is New York.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Indians.

Cleveland won 7-2 here yesterday over Baltimore and I think it'll maintain its momentum and post another solid victory in what sets up to be another favorable starting pitching matchup for it.

The visitors hand the ball to Keegan Akin (0-1, 4.13 ERA), who gave up three runs over four innings in a loss to the Rays. The rookie hasn't been anything to write home about so far and he enters with a poor 0-1, 4.43 ERA record on the road.

Aaron Civale (9-2, 3.17) counters for the home side and he just went eight scoreless against the Mariners. Here's another line-up that Civale can take advantage of. Note that he's 4-1 with a tiny 2.62 ERA at home this year. 

Akin hasn't even made it into the sixth inning in any of his starts and I think he'll stumble trying to keep pace with the steady Civale here in this difficult road venue.

All things considered, I believe this line could in fact be a lot larger. There are a plethora of great factors working in favor of Civale and the Indians today.

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Cleveland.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the White Sox.

I had a play on the White Sox yesterday and while that pick came up short, I do think that Dallas Keuchel and the home side offer fantastic value in this spot to bounce back.

Yes, the Rays are on fire. The White Sox were too before yesterday's loss.

But Shane McClanahan (2-1, 4.54 ERA) is off back-to-back poor outings and I think the rookie is destined for further regression here. Last time out he was lucky to earn a no-decision after allowing three runs over three innings to the Nationsl. Over his last 6-1 innings of work he's allowed seven runs and ten hits. Suffice it to say, I think his early sparkling numbers are "smoke and mirrors."

Keuchel (5-1, 4.14) is coming off back-to-back quality starts, most recently conceding tow runs over six innings while striking out eight in a win over the hard-hitting Blue Jays on Thursday.

Keuchel could/should easily be a much bigger favorite in this spot. I say McClanahan continues his spiral down the proverbial toilet with another dud in this difficult road venue.

Lay the short price, the play is Chicago.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* American League NON-DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Royals.

Off their 10-3 defeat here to the Tigers yesterday, I think that Mike Minor and the Royals are going to bounce-back in fine fashion on Tuesday.

The Tigers hand the ball to Casey Mize (3-4, 3.44 ERA), who gave up three runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Mariners on Wednesday. The rookie has been surprisingly steady across the board, but I'll point out that Detroit is a terrible 2-7 in its last nine after scoring ten or more runs in a road victory in its last outing.

Minor (5-3, 4.50) is coming off perhaps his best start of the season, allowing one run and striking out eight over seven innings in a victory over the A's.

Minor has now posted at least seven strikeouts in six of his last seven starts and I think this is another extremely favorable matchup for the surging veteran.

Finally, note that the Royals are 8-3 in their last 11 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they conceded nine or more runs in.

Great price on the revenge-minded home side.

The play is the Royals.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the White Sox.

This is an interesting starting pitching matchup, but I don't think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in it.

Tyler Glasnow (5-2, 2.57 ERA) gets the call for the Rays and he most recently allowed one earned run over seeeven innings in a win over the Nationals on Tuesday. It's difficult to say anything negative about Glasnow, I just think he's overmatched on the road here against Chicago's ace Lance Lynn.

Lynn (7-1, 1.23) will enter motivated after receiving a no-decision in his last outing, despite only conceding a single run and no walks over seven innings vs. Toronto on Wednesday. The hard-throwing right-hander has now allowed one or no earned runs in eight of his 11 starts this season.

Both teams are hot. I'll point out though that the White Sox are 7-1 in their last eight home games with a moneyline attached from -105 to +115. 

I like Lynn to continue his incredible campaign and for Chicago to strike first in this three-game series.

The play is the White Sox.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Marlins.

The Marlins have won three in a row and with a chance to sweep the Braves here at home, I expect them to keep the foot on the gas Sunday.

This is a starting pitching matchup which definitely favors the home side as well.

The visitors go with the volatile Drew Smyly (2-3, 5.82 ERA)who gave up three runs and three walks over four innings in a no-decision to the Phillies on Tuesday. He had zero strikeouts in what has to be considered a decent performance for this confirmed "gas can." 

Over his last four starts Smyly has given up a combined 16 runs and has posted a 17/7 K/W over that stretch.

He faces Pablo Lopez (2-3, 2.76), who looked superb in his last outing, giving up two runs over eight innings with eight strikeouts in a victory over the Rockies. 

Lopez enters on top form, having posted at least eight strikeouts in three of his past four outings (note that he's been particularly effective at home as well with a minuscule 1.22 ERA.)

The Marlins are hungry for victories and have been the Braves' punching bag for years. Look for Miami to complete the sweep and lay this very reasonable price.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* LEGEND is on the Red Sox.

I think Boston will bounce back here after yesterday's 7-2 loss.

Boston has won seven of its last ten overall. It took the first game of this series with the Jays 6-5, before yesterday's setback.

These teams actually play again tomorrow here as well to conclude the four-game series. After that Boston hits the road for two weeks.

The Jays have won six of their last ten, and they hand the ball to Robbie Ray (3-2, 3.36 ERA), who took a no-decision against the White Sox on Tuesday, allowing one run over six innings while striking out 13. Ray's been great overall this year, but if he's had one tiny knock against him, it's been his performance on the road where he's 0-1 with a pedestrian 3.91 ERA.

The home side counters with Martin Perez (4-3, 3.88), who gave up six runs over two innings in a loss to the Astros in his last outing. Previous to that he went eight scoreless against Houston. 

Overall though Perez is enjoying a resurgent season, and interesting to note that he's been particularly effective in all "day" games this season, going 2-0 with a tiny 0.99 ERA thus far.

Ray has been great, but regression seems imminent for the Jays' overacheiving starter in my opinion. 

And Perez looks primed for a bounce-back here in front of the home town crowd, as does his team, which enters having gone 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a five runs or greater home loss to an opponent.

Great value on the hungry home side here!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the Reds.

The Reds are off an 11-5 win here yesterday and I think they keep the momentum rolling with Wade Miley on the hill.

Miley (5-4, 2.96 ERA), is coming off a commanding outing against the Cardinals, allowing no runs over five innings while striking out eight. He'll be far from satisfied though after receiving a no-decision for his effort.

Miley has allowed one or fewer runs in four of his last five starts.

His counterpart today is German Marquez (4-5, 3.91), who also comes in off a strong outing vs. the A's, allowing one run over six innings. 

Marquez has been good over the last month, but I'll point out that he's still just 2-4 with a 4.66 ERA in all "day" games this year.

The Reds are also 7-2 in their last nine off a home win in which then scored ten or more runs in.

Give me Miley at home at this price for sure!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SATURDAY NATIONAL LEAGUE PLAY is on the Mets.

I like the Mets to build off yesterday's 3-2 win.

The visitors hand the ball to Joe Musgrove (4-5, 2.33 ERA), who gave up three runs over five innings in what turned out to be a loss to these very Mets last Saturday. He struck out ten, but deGrom was even better on that day.

But the home side counters with the equally as hot Marcus Stroman (5-4, 2.41), who beat these very Padres last Sunday, conceding a single run with seven strikeouts over seven innings.

In 12 starts this year Stroman has allowed three runs or less ten times. He's also 2-1 with a 2.04 ERA at home.

San Diego has scored just four runs in its past three games and it's scored more than three runs just twice in ten games.

I'll take the consistent Stroman at home and bank on the Mets building on yesterday's win.

Great price, the play is New York.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* WEEKEND WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Atheltics.

I like the A's to build off their 4-3 win here yesterday.

The visitors hand the ball to Jackson Kowar (0-1, 54.00 ERA), who was crushed in his big league debut last week, allowing four runs off three hits with two walks over only 2/3's of an innings.

Clearly, that wasn't how Kowar or the Royals expected that start to go and the only way he can go from here is "up," however I still think its asking a lot vs. this red hot A's side that's looking for any advantage it can get.

Oakland has to be feeling confident here as well with James Kaprielian (2-1, 3.08), who took an unfortunate loss vs. the Rockies in his last outing, allowing two runs with six strikeouts over five innings. And it was at Coors Field as well.

Kaprielian is 1-0 with 0.00 ERA at home and I think he's well worth the price of admission in this matchup on Saturday afternoon.

And so in this battle between young starters, I'm laying the price on the already tested Kaprielian and the hungry home side.

The play is Oakland.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* WEEKLY WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Angels.

The bottom line for this interleague matchup is that I feel that Shohei Ohtani could/should in fact be a bigger favorite in this starting pitching matchup.

Ohtani (2-1, 2.76 ERA) most recently dominated the Mariners for his second win of the season last Friday, allowing two runs, no walks and posting ten strikeouts over six innings. Over 23.2 innings of work he's posted a sharp 30/7 K/W.

Merrill Kelly (2-6, 5.16) counters for the Diamondbacks, and he most recently was shelled for five runs off six hits in what turned out to be a fortunate no-decision for the Brewers. 

Over 70.1 innings Kelly has posted a respectable 62/19 K/W, but I still say that he's clearly overmatched going up against the red hot Ohtani.

The Angels offense is white hot, its off a sweep of the Royals, and it's posted 39 combined runs over its past five games.

Look for LA to open up this IL series with a convincing victory.

Lay this price with confidence.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Indians.

Seattle is off an 8-3 loss in Detroit yesterday afternoon and I expect it to stumble in the opener of this three-game set as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Justin Dunn (1-2, 3.18 ERA), who has been re-activated from the 10-day IL. Previous to the slight shoulder injury he looked good in a win over the Rangers with eight strikeouts over six innings, but I think the extra time off here isn't going help him.

Aaron Civale (8-2, 3.49) counters for the Indians, and he comes in off a win over the Orioles, allowing four runs over six innings, striking out four and walking none. So far Civale owns a decent 58/18 K/W, and note that he's been at his best at home by going 3-1 with a 3.25 ERA thus far.

Look for Civale to outduel his counterpart and for the Tribe to take advantage of this road weary Seattle side.

Lay the price, the play is Cleveland.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NL EAST BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Phillies.

Philadelphia came away with a 2-1 win yesterday, getting a walk off home run in the bottom of the ninth to "steal" it away from the Braves. It was evenly matched throughout.

I expect the "get-a-way" game to be a bit more decisive though, as I look for the Phillies to build off last night's thrilling win.

The visitors hand the ball to Ian Anderson (4-3, 3.64 ERA), who was shelled for four runs over four innings in a loss to the Ddogers on Friday. Overall it's been a strong start for Anderson this year, but if he's had one "knock" against him, it's been his performance in "day" games this year (note that he's 4-2 with a 3.19 ERA in all "night" games and 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA in all "day" contests.)

The home side counters with the stead Zack Wheeler (4-3, 2.51), who gave up two runs with eight strikeouts over eight eight innings in what turned out to be a very unfortunate loss to the Nationals in his last outing. Over 82.1 innings of work thus far Wheeler sports a 0.94 WHIP and a huge 100/18 K/W ratio.

Also note that Wheeler's been at his best in all day games, going 3-0 with a minuscule 1.20 ERA.

All things considered, I believe this line could/should in fact be much larger.

The play is Philadelphia.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* AL SUPER PICK is on the Red Sox.

I like Nate Eovaldi and the Red Sox to bounce back here and avenge yesterday's 7-1 defeat to the visiting Astros.

Houston sends Jake Odorizzi (0-3, 7.16 ERA), who faced these very Red Sox last Thursday and gave up three runs with three walks over three innings. Odorizzi struggled with his command, needing 72 pitches to get through the three innings. He's now failed to pitch five full innings in four of his five starts this season (he's been particularly bad on the road as well, going 0-1 with an 8.78 ERA.)

Eovaldi (7-2, 3.78) has won three straight, allowing a combined four earned runs over that span. He's been better on the road than at home, but I like that trend to start correcting itself here.

I think Boston bounces back easily at home here and all things considered, I believe this line could/should in fact be much larger.

Great value on the Red Sox on Wednesday night.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the Mets.

Both staring pitchers are coming off losses. The Mets are off a loss to the Orioles to open up this interleague series, falling 10-3, but with what I believe to be the vastly superior starter on the hill for it today, I like New York and Taijuan Walker to both bounce back here in this favorable matchup.

Walker (4-2, 2.17 ERA), gave up four runs over five innings in a loss to the Padres in his last outing. It was his first loss since April though. Walker's been better at home than on the road, but he still hasa 3.35 ERA away from friendly confines. 

I like Walker a lot here, especially against the volatile Matt Harvey (3-6, 6.62). Harvey has been hit or miss all year, with his only decent outings coming at the start of the season. Harvey's been better at home than on the road, although barely with a 1-3, 5.23 ERA record.

The Mets are 6-1 in their last seven vs. a right-handed starter and I think that Harvey is for another long night.

Considering the talent discrepancy on the hill for these two starting pitchers, I think this line could/should in fact be much larger.

I have no problem laying this price on the revenge-minded visiting side. The play is New York.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NL GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Phillies.

I had a play on Aaron Nola and the Phillies yesterday, and that turned out to be my only losing MLB pick out of my three.

Suffice it to say, I absolutely think the home side can bounce back here and I think the price is great as well in this one.

The visitors hand the ball to Tucker Davidson (0-0, 2.31 ERA), who is making his second straight start and third start of the season for the Braves. Davidson will likely remain in the rotation out of neccessity. The sample size is obviously very small, and I think that inevitable regression is in store, especially in this difficult road venue.

The home side counters with Zach Eflin (2-5, 4.10), who gave up four runs over five innings in a loss to the Rays in his last outing. Eflin's last start was skipped over to give him extra rest.

Note that while he's 1-4 with a 5.75 ERA on the road this year, Eflin's consistently been at his best at home, going 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA.

Look for the revenge-minded home side to bounce back here in this favorable matchup and for Eflin to continue his strong play at home.

Lay the reasonable price, the play is Philadelphia.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* American League BLOWOUT play of the MONTH is on the Angels.

I think the Angels will build off their big 8-3 win here last night over the Royals.

Kansas City hands the ball to rookie Kris Bubic (1-0, 2.12 ERA) who is already showing signs of major regression after a sharp opening vitory, allowing four runs over four innings in a no-decision to the Twins on Thursday. Clearly, the book is still out on Bubic.

The home side counters with the steady Andrew Heaney (3-3, 4.76), who gave up one run over seven innings, while striking out seven in a victory over the Giants on Tuesday. Heaney has admittedly been better on the road than at home this season, but LA is 7-1 in its last eight after scoring eight or more runs in a home victory in its last outing.

I think the Angels are seeing the ball well right now and everything points to Bubic "getting the hook" early. 

Look for Heaney to build off his last start and to get back on track in front of the home town crowd.

This one has "BLOWOUT" written all over it. The play is LA.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Tigers.

Marco Gonzalez (1-3, 5.01 ERA) comes in off a rare strong start for the Mariners, going four innings against the A's and allowing one run with six strikeouts. 

Gonzalez returned from after a month off from injury and looked fresh, but I'll point out that he's still a disastrous 1-2 with a 6.56 ERA on the road this season.

Matthew Boyd (2-6, 3.90) is coming off an outing to forget for the Tigers, allowing five runs over five innings in what turned out to be a no-decision against the Brewers. 

Starts like that have been few and far between for Boyd the last two years though, and I like him to bounce back here, as note that he owns a sharp 2.80 ERA at home so far this season.

Seattle struggles with consistency on the road. So does its starting pitcher Gonzalez.

Great price on the hungry home side and motivated Boyd.

The play is Detroit.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH is on the Phillies.

I think the Braves are going to stumble here after taking two of three from the defending champs at home over the weekend. 

After a poor stretch Philadelphia has played better of late, especially offensively (plating 35 runs over its last four games, going 3-1 in that span.)

This is a major mismatch on the mound. I don't normally lay chalk of this size, unless it's warranted. And in this case, I love Aaron Nola at home.

Nola (4-4, 3.84 ERA) earned a win over the Reds last Tuesday, allowing three runs over five innings. Nola for sure has been much better at home than on the road this season, and there's no reason not to think that that trend won't continue here (he's 2-3 with a 5.05 ERA on the road and 2-1 with a 2.38 ERA at home.) 

His counterpart today is confirmed "gas can" Drew Smyly (2-3, 5.98 ERA), who gave up three runs over four innings in a no-decision to the Nationals on Wednesday. Over his last three starts he's been rocked for 13 runs and five home runs.

Considering the massive talent discrepancy on the mound between these starting pitchers today, I believe the price here is warranted. 

Lay the price, the play is Philadelphia.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the Padres.

The Padres have now lost six of their last ten after back-to-back home losses to the Mets.

The Friars will now look to turn the page and get back to their winning ways here, against a Cubs team that's primed for a bit of a letdown here in my opinion.

Chicago comes to town after losing two of three in San Francisco, but coming from behind last night for a satisfying 4-3 victory in the finale.

Ryan Weathers (2-2, 2.06 ERA and 0.99 WHIP), gets the nod for the home side here, he most recently lost to these very Cubs on Tuesday, allowing four runs over five innings. 

It was easily his worst start of the year. The good news though is that Weathers has been better at home than on the road witha  tiny 1.98 ERA.

Adbert Alzolay (4-4, 3.63) is coming off a win for Chicago, allowing one run with seven strikeouts over five innings over these very Padres last Wednesday. The rookie's been sharp so far, but I think he's still in over his head here in this difficult road venue.

Despite how well Alzolay has thrown of late, I believe Weathers at home here is the correct call. 

And at this price, I love the Padres to bounce back as well. 

The play is indeed, San Diego.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* 37-YEAR CLUB PLAY is on the Yankees.

Boston won here last night by a score of 7-3, and I think the Yanks will respond here in the finale and avenge that setback.

New York is clearly desperate again here after losing three in a row and seven of its last ten overall. 

Boston enters on the other end of the spectrum, satisfied after three straight victories and winning six of its last ten overall.

And with a single interleague game at home against Miami, before seven games in a row at home against Houston and Toronto, this is also a "look ahead" position for the visiting side.

Clearly, New York can ill afford to look past anyone these days.

Garrett Richards (4-4, 3.75 ERA), is coming off a loss against Houston on Tuesday for the Red Sox. Over a three-game stretch he's posted a poor 14/12 K/W.

Domingo German (4-3, 3.27) has been much more consistent for this inconsistent Yankees team than his counterpart has been for his squad. German most recently allowed thre runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Rays on Tuesday. 

Over 55 innings of work German owns a sharp 52/10 K/W.

I like German for sure in this starting pitching matchup, but I'll also point out that the Yanks are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge back-to-back home losses to an opponent.

All things considered, this line could/should in fact be a lot larger in my opinion.

The value swings to New York in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PITCHING MISMATCH is on the St. Louis Cardinals.

I like the Cards to dig deep here and find a way to deliver in the finale of this four-game series and to break their current four-game slide. In fact, St. louis has lost six of its last seven overall.

After three straight wins in this series, and with a day off before a home series against Milwaukee, I look for Cincinnati to indeed have a predictable letdown here.

Wade Miley (5-4, 3.26 ERA) has been solid for the Reds, he most recently beat the Phillies on Monday, giving up on run over six innings and striking out six. If he's had one "knock" against him this year though, it's been his play on the road where he enters having gone a pedestrian 2-2 with a 4.01 ERA.

The home side counters with John Gant (4-1, 1.60) who received an unfortunate no-decision against the Dodgers in his last outing, giving up no runs and with four strikeouts over six innings. Note that it was his second straight scoreless performance against a quality opponent. 

With Gant on the mound, expect St. Louis to finally get off the schneid here (and this price is fantastic considering in my opinion as well.) 

The play is St. Louis.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Blue Jays.

Toronto won here 6-2 yesterday and I believe there are also many favorable factors working in its favor in the finale of this series.

Houston hands the ball to Luis Garcia (4-3, 2.89 ERA), who gave up one run over seven innings in a win over Boston on Tuesday. Garcia has been fantastic so far, but regression seems imminent here for the rookie in this difficult road venue.

The Jays' Steven Matz (6-2, 4.22) gave up four runs (only two earned) over four innings in Game 2 of a double-header last Sunday, coming away with a no-decision in the end.

Matz has performed well in this spot all season, and there's no reason not to think he can't continue that trend, as he's 2-0 with a tiny 2.11 ERA in all "day" games.

Vladamir Guerrero Jr. is batting .533 with two home runs and five RBI's over four games in Buffalo, and I expect the Jays' slugger is in line for another productive game here as well.

Toronto is playing well on this field and in my opinion, Matz should be a bigger favorite in this matchup despite how well Garcia has thrown of late.

The play is the Blue Jays.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR is the Padres.

San Diego held on for a 2-0 win last night, and I believe it'll find a way to get the job done here as well against Mets' ace Jacob DeGrom.

DeGrom (4-2, 0.71 ERA), went six scoreless against the Diamondbacks on Monday. DeGrom has been dominant both at home and on the road this year. It's hard to imagine though the hard-throwing right-hander keeping up this elite pace for too much longer.

Especially in the warming months in San Diego.

DeGrom is amazing, but I just think that Padres' starter Joe Musgrove (4-4, 2.08) will be up to the task to match his counterpart inning for inning.

Musgrove most recently pitched five innings of relief in a loss in Houston and gave up zero runs in the no-decision. Musgrove owns a 79/12 K/W and 0.76 WHIP.

As I said, I absolutely believe Musgrove can match DeGrom at home here.

The Mets anemic offense couldn't muster up one measley run last night, and I can't see the unit generating much of anything tonight either.

The play here is clear. The play is the Padres!

Good luck...Larry

8* FALSE-FAVORITE on the Braves.

The Dodgers pulled away for a 9-5 victory here last night, but I think that the Braves will bounce-back here on Saturday.

LA goes with Clayton Kershaw (7-4, 3.33 ERA), who enters off his worst start of the season, getting crushed for five earned runs off sevne hits over six innings in a setback to the Giants on Sunday.

Listen, overall Kershaw's been great, but he also certainly hasn't been perfect. 

His counterpart today Charlie Morton (4-2, 4.11) hasn't been perfect this season either, but he enters off a strong outing against the Nationals on Monday, allowing three runs with six strikeouts over six innings. Over 57 innings of work Morton now sports a sharp 67-21 K/W. 

The Braves are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they conceded eight or more runs in as well.

I think the stage is set for the minor upset here. 

The wrong team is favored in this one, I'm rolling with the revenge-minded Braves on Saturday.

Good luck...Larry

9* PITCHING MISMATCH on the Orioles.

I had a play on the Orioles last night, and they ended up winning 3-1 as a slight dog.

Now they're a slight favorite, and I believe for good reason. In fact, I think that the O's could be even bigger favs here.

The inconsistent visiting side hands the ball to Aaron Civale (7-2, 3.28 ERA), who enters off his worst start of the season, allowing four runs with one strikeout over six innings. 

Civale is starting to regress, as both of his losses have occurred over the last four games, and he's conceded at least four runs each time. The ten hits he gave up last time out were also a season-worst. 

Civale is trending in the wrong direction.

Baltimore looks to build momentum now and hands the ball to ace John Means (4-1, 2.05), who allowed three runs while striking out four over five innings in Saturday's Game 2 of a double-header vs. the hard-hitting White Sox.

It was his first loss of the year. Look for Means to continue his red-hot season here in this favorable matchup and improve upon his minuscule 0.80 WHIP thus far.

As I stated off the top, I do definitely think this line could/should in fact be larger. 

Great value here on the hungry Orioles.

Good luck...Larry

10* AL GAME OF THE MONTH on the Blue Jays.

Houston was busy losing 5-1 in Boston yesterday afternoon, while Toronto had the day off after beating the Marlins 6-5 on the road in its most recent action.

As good as Zack Grienke has been this year for the Astros, Hyun-Jin Ryu has been even better though for the Jays.

And at this price at home, I absolutely like Toronto in this spot.

Greinke (5-2, 3.67 ERA) gave up one run over eight innings in a victory over the Padres on Sunday. Over 73.2 innings of work he owns a decent 57/15 K/W.

Ryu (5-2, 2.62) won a rain-shortened contest last time out, allowing two runs with five strikeouts over five innings. So far Ryu has a sharp 58/8 K/W over 58.1 innings of work.

Ryu though has absolutely been at his best at home this year, entering this contest having gone 2-0 with a minuscule 0.90 ERA here so far this season.

I like the way this one sets up for the Jays scheduling wise, and I believe they also have the superior starting pitcher on the hill to open.

As stated off the top, at this price the Jays are absolutely the play in this contest.

Good luck...Larry

8* PITCHING MISMATCH on the Orioles.

Cleveland's been off since June 1st after beating the White Sox 6-5 on the road.

The Tribe have won two in a row, but I think they're going to stumble here in the opener of this four-game series vs. this hungry home side, that's coming off a 6-3 victory at Minnesota in latest action.

After eight straight losses, the Orioles have now won two in a row. Clearly Baltimore can ill afford to come in complacent or satisfied.

This game features two rookie starters, but it's a matchup that I believe favors the home side.

The visitors hand the ball to Jean Carlos Mejia, who had his debut postponed last time out due to inclement weather vs. the White Sox. Over two starts in Triple-A he posted a pedestrian 10/5 K/W.

The home side counters with Keegan Akin (0-0, 4.80), who is looking for his first win still after allowing just one run with four strikeouts over five innings in a no-decision to the White Sox on Sunday. Over 15 innings in the big leagues, the 26-year old now has a great 14/2 K/W.

Look for Akin to get that first win here and outduel his untested counterpart.

The play is Baltimore.

Good luck...Larry

10* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on the Giants.

The Giants had their four-game win streak snapped in an 8-1 setback at the Angels two nights ago.

The Cubs cross the country for this game red hot, as they've won nine of their last ten. That includes a 6-1 victory and series sweep of the Padres yesterday.

After six-straight home victories though, I think that the Cubs finally have their let-down here against this focussed home side.

Chicago hands the ball to Zach Davies (2-2, 4.65 ERA) who gave up one run over five innings in a no-decision to the Cards in his last outing. Davies has been fantastic of late, but his performance on the road certainly has to be called into question, as he's 0-1 with a ballooned 6.56 ERA away from "The Friendly Confines." 

Anthony DeSclafani (4-2, 3.56) is off a no-decision to the Angels, allowing two runs over five innings. DeSclafani has been as solid as San Francisco could possibly have hoped for so far this year, and note that he's allowed no more than three earned runs in any of his ten starts. 

With an extra day off to prepare, I look for the rested home side to get the job done in the series opener.

Great price too. The play is San Francisco.

Good luck...Larry

8* FALSE FAVORITE on the Tigers.

Lance Lynn is have an unbelievable year, but at some point regression is going to creep in.

After having his start delayed yesterday, I think his rythym will be disrupted, and that leaves the door open here for Casey Mize (3-3, 3.28 ERA) and the hungry Tigers.

Who actually come to town in their best form of the season. 

The Tigers have won four of their last five, including a 10-7 victory at Milwaukee two days ago.

Mize gave up one run with no walks while striking out seven over five innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision to the Yankees on Friday. Over 57.2 innings of work Mize has a very respectable 1.11 WHIP, to go along with 47 strikeouts. 

Listen, it's difficult to say anything negative about Lynn whatsoever. He was solid last year as well. 

I just don't trust the White Sox bullpen, or their line-up right now. I believe Mize can match Lynn inning for inning, and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the undervalued underdog in my opinion.

Look for Mize and the Tigers to sneak away with a victory here in the opener of this three game series.

The play is Detroit.

Good luck...Larry

10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Yankees.

New York broke a four-game slide with a 5-3 extra-innings win in Game 2 of this four-game series against the AL East leading Rays and I like it to keep the momentum rolling here in what I believe is a favorable matchup of starting pitchers.

The visitors hand the ball to Shane McClanahan (2-0, 3.29 ERA), who admittedly has looked strong in is limited time. And when I say limited, I mean limited. This is his fourth career start here today. He has a strong 32/7 K/W over 27.1 innings, but the book is still out on the rookie, as the sample size is still much too small in my opinion.

His counterpart today is veteran Jordan Montgomery (2-1, 4.22) who earned a no-decision after a shaky outing last time out, givin gup three runs over five innings against the hard-hitting Jays. 

Montgomery hasn't been perfect this year, but he's consistently been at his best on this field this year, going 1-1 with a 3.08 ERA at home.

It's been a miserable stretch for Yankees fans, but with a chance to take back-to-back games against their No. 1 rival, I think Montgomery is the correct call here, as everything points to regression from McClanahan finally.

Lay the reasonable price, the play is New York.

Good luck...Larry

10* FALSE-FAVORITE on the New York Yankees.

After getting swept by the Tigers in three games, and dropping the opener of this series yesterday by a score of 3-1, I believe that the Yankees will dig deep here and find a way to get back into the win column.

The Rays hand the ball to Tyler Glasnow (4-2, 2.57 ERA), who went eight scoreless against the Royals on Wednesday, striking out 11. Previous to that gem he coughed up five runs over 4.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Jays.

Domingo German (4-3, 3.06) enters off a loss to Toronto, allowed two earned runs, while striking out five over six innings. 

Tampa's the hottes team in MLB, and it's 7-3 here now in the season series with New York.

Clearly the Yanks are the more "motivated" team today.

The Yankees are also 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to one or less runs in.

I say that Tampa finally has a letdown here, and the hungrier home side delivers with this great price.

The play is the Yankees.

Good luck...Larry

7* WEEKLY WIPEOUT WINNER on the Giants.

Both teams come in hot. Both of these starting pitchers though don't. One is struggling, while the other has done well.

The Angels' Dylan Bundy (0-5, 6.50 ERA), most recently was rocked for four runs off five hits over 2.1 innings in a fortuate no-decision against the A's on Sunday. 

Bundy owns a respectable 45/18 K/W, but note that he's consistently been at his worst in this position all season, going 0-2 with a 7.15 ERA in all "day" games.

As I mentioned, both teams are hot. For me this comes down to the starting pitchers though and Johnny Cueto (3-1, 3.86) is going to be the correct call.

Cueto has to be feeling confident here, as he's 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA lifetime in four starts against LA (Bundy is 1-1 with a 4.66 ERA lifetime against the Giants.)

I like Cueto here and I believe he should in fact be a larger favorite. 

The play is San Francisco.

Good luck...Larry

9* PITCHING MISMATCH on the Padres.

At some point Padres' ace Yu Darvish (5-1, 1.75 ERA) is going to have a letdown, but I'm not expecting that to happen here.

This is a favorable matchup for Darvish and the visiting Padres and I believe they'll make the most of it, and build on yesterday's convincing 10-3 victory.

Darvish picked up the win against the Mariners in his last outing, allowing one run with five strikeouts over seven innings (he's been particularly effective on the road as well, going 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA.)

His counterpart is Jake Odorizzi (0-2, 10.13) who returns to the Astros rotation after a lengthy stint on the IL. Odorizzi struggled over his first few starts before getting injured, and while he'll surely be much better on his return, he'll still be on a short leash here.

This favors Darvish for sure, who I expect to easily outduel Odorizzi.

And that's enough for me to swing the pendulum enough in the Padres favor to ultimately pull the trigger on this road chalk.

Lay it, and expect a blowout.

Good luck...Larry

10* WEEKLY WIPE-OUT WINNER on the Mariners.

The Rangers have lost five of their last eight games. The Mariners have dropped seven of their last nine. 

Both teams are equally motivated to win this contest, so let's throw the "motivation" factor out the window. 

The Rangers come to town off a disheartening 9-8 loss at the Angels and I think they'll have a difficult time bouncing back here.

Texas hands the ball to Kolby Allard (1-0, 3.15), who is making his first start of the 2021 season. Note that he's a terrible 1-2 with a ballooned 10.38 ERA in four career appearances vs. the M's, which does include three starts.

The hungry home side counters with Chris Flexen (4-2, 5.09), who is 2-0 with a 5.25 ERA in two career starts against Texas.

Seattle comes in with momentum as well after breaking a six-game slide by taking two of three in Oakland.

All things considered, a fantastic price on the home side here in my opinion.

The play is Seattle.

Good luck...Larry

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Brewers.

After winning nine straight, I think the Padres finally have a small letdown here.

The Brewers have been waffling for a while now, so they can't afford to take the foot off the gas despite back-to-back convincing victories.

It's a great set of situational circumstances working in favor of the home side tonight, and I look for it to make the most of it and post a convincing victory in the opener of this three game set and with a very reasonable line attached to it as well.

Blake Snell (1-0, 3.79 ERA), comes in off a no-decision to the Rockies on Tuesday, allowing one run over six innings. Snell has been great this year for his new team, but if he's had one "knock" against him, it's been his play on the road where he's 0-0 with a ballooned 6.97 ERA.

The home side counters with Brandon Woodruff (2-2, 1.58), who allowed two runs (only one earned) while striking out four over eight innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate loss to the Royals on Tuesday. 

It was Woodruff's eighth straight quality start and to go along with his tiny ERA, he also owns a miniscule 0.74 WHIP and monstrous 65/14 K/W.

I think the hungrier home side finds a way to deliver, and as I said off the top, I do now believe that the Padres will finally stumble after such a long stretch of elite level play.

The play is Milwaukee.

Good luck...Larry

8* LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Jays.

The Jays have lost three straight. That includes yesterday's 9-7 loss in the series opener. Over their last two games they've scored 14 runs, but gone 0-2.

Toronto has the superior starting pitcher on the hill though here and I believe that'll help the home side bounce back in fine fashion on Saturday night.

The visitors hand the ball to Shane McClanahan (1-0, 4.67 ERA), who gave up four runs over five innings to earn a victory over the light-hitting Mets in his last outing. The book is still out on McClanhan though, and clearly he faces his stiffest test to date here on the road vs. the hard-hitting Jays.

Robbie Ray (2-1, 3.79) allowed four runs over six innings, while also striking out nine in a hard-fought win over the Phillies in his last outing. Over seven starts Ray has a very respectable 1.14 WHIP.

Finally, note that Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent in which it allowed eight or more runs in.

Great price on the home side here. The play is Toronto.

Good luck...Larry

10* LEGEND on the Reds.

I had a play on the Reds last night, and they went on to post a convincing 9-4 win over the floundering Brewers.

The victory was significant, as it snapped a four-game slide, and it also made up for a brutal 19-4 loss the day before at home against the Giants.

Now it's the Brewers who enter on a losing streak (3 in a row and six of their last seven). And this isn't a staring pitching matchup that favors the visiting side today either, meaning I absolutely expect Milwaukee's struggles to continue for at least one more game.

The Reds won't be taking anything for granted after such a long period of poor play, instead they'll be more eager than ever to try and string a couple wins together and at the very least, secure the series victory here today.

They also have the better in form and more motivated starting pitcher on the hill today.

Sonny Gray (0-3, 3.86 ERA), gave up four runs (three earned), off five hits over five innings on Monday in a loss to the hard-hitting Giants in his last outing. It was the only time that he's allowed three or more runs in a start this season though and clearly Gray will be hungry to finally get into the winners circle today.

And what better opponent than the volatile Brett Anderson (2-3, 4.50), who gave up four runs off eight hits with three walks while striking out three over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Braves in his last outing (note that the southpaw has been at his worst on the road as well, going 1-2 with a 5.50 ERA.)

The stage is set for Cincinnati to build off yesterday's convincing victory. Great price on Gray and the hungry home side.

The play is the Reds.

Good luck...Larry

10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER on the Reds.

Enough is enough for Reds fans!

Cincinnati comes to the field today prepared to snap a four-game slide, and to atone for yesterday's poor 19-4 loss here at home to San Francisco.

Jeff Hoffman (2-3, 4.67 ERA) is coming off an outing to forget for Cincinnati, allowing five runs (two earned) over four innings vs. the Rockies on Sunday. 

Over 34.2 innings of work, Hoffman owns a 32-18 K/W.

His counterpart today is Milwaukee starter Adrian Houser (3-4, 3.63) who gave up two runs off two hits with five walks in a loss to Atlanta in his last outing. It was his shortest outing of the year, as he threw just 32 of his 65 pitches for strikes.

I like Hoffman to bounce back at home here (wns a 2.70 ERA with no decision in two starts vs. Milwaukee), but further regression seems imminent for Houser in my opinion (note he's 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in three career starts here.)

Milwaukee has lost seven of nine on the road, and they now face a Reds team looking to bounce back after getting outscored 33-9 by the Giants.

Look for the Reds to rally at home.

Good luck...Larry

10* PERFECT STORM on the Chicago Cubs.

Facing your former team is never an easy thing to do, and I believe that Jon Lester will in fact struggle in this spot.

Washington has won three of its last four, but after a 3-0 victory in Arizona just last night, I think the "on again, off again" Nationals are going to stumble in "The Friendly Confines."

Chicago has won two of three. The Cubs are just 6-12 on the road, but they're 13-8 at home. The Nationals are only 7-10 on the road.

Lester (0-1, 2.25 ERA) is coming off a no-decision to the Phillies on Wednesday, he gave up one run and three walks over six innings. The sample size for this season is still way too small to draw any conclusive conclusions.

The home side counters with Adbert Alzolay (1-3, 4.50) who enters off his second straight quality start, giving up three runs over six innings to go along with six strikeouts in an unfortunate setback to the Indians. 

If we look a little closer at Alzolay, we see that his numbers are in fact fantastic, with a 0.88 WHIP and 36/7 K/W over 32 innings of work.

As stated off the top, the stage is set for a collapse by Lester here facing his former team. It's a perfect storm of factors working in favor of Alzolay and the Cubbies.

Lay it.

Good luck...Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Padres (10*).

My 37-Club Play winner on Saturday was the Padres, and they went on to beat the visiting Cardinals by a score of 13-3. The Padres are once again rolling, as they've won five of their last six. I say they complete the sweep here.

The Card go with Kwang Hyun Kim (1-0, 2.74 ERA), who has only given up four earned runs over 20 innings of work. Kim has been great, but clearly the book is still out and the sample size just too small.

Ryan Weathers (2-1, 0.81), has been exceptional in whatever role the Padres have needed himin this season. With a strong bullpen to support, I like Weathers at home in this matchup.

Also note that SD is interestingly 7-3 in its last ten after scoring 12 or more runs in a victory in its last outing.

All things considered, a great price on this one.

I'm on the Padres (again!)

Good luck...Larry 

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Twins (8*).

Minnesota finally broke out of its slump with a tight 5-4 win yesterday, and I think it'll keep the momentum rolling here.

Oakland is 11-6 on the road. The Twins are only 7-12 at home.

Minnesota was picked by many to be among the best in the league, but the Twins have struggled with consistency across the board.

The bottom line is though, one close victory isn't going to solve anything for the Twins, they desperately need to string some wins together and I expect them to once again play with a sense of urgency today.

The A's have a night off before a series at home vs. the Astros, so this also sets up as a look-ahead spot for the visiting side.

I also like Kenta Maeda (2-2, 5.08 ERA), over Chris Bassitt (3-2, 3.54).

Maeda allowed three runs over five innings vs. the White Sox on Tuesday, not factoring into the decision. Note that while he's 1-1 with a 6.38 ERA on the road, he's a "lights out" 1-1 with a 1.96 ERA at home. 

Bassitt's been great, hard to knock anything about his performance right now, I simply think he's in the wrong place at the wrong time here. 

I like the "hungrier" team to win here, and as I outlined, this one sets up as a "trap" for the visitors.

The play is Minnesota.

Good luck...Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Jays (8*).

Philadelphia's bullpen is atrocious. The Jays have the superior stater on the hill today too in my estimation.

You add those two factors together, and in all honesty I believe that Robbie Ray could be a much bigger favorite in this matchup.

Ray (1-1, 3.38 ERA) allowed three runs off five hits to go along with a season-high ten strikeouts in an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Braves in his last outing. Ray has gone at least five innings in every start so far for the Jays, giving up three or less runs each time.

The Phillies counter with the volatile Chase Anderson (2-3, 5.23), who gave up two runs over five innings in a win over the Nationals in his last outing. Overall Anderson has a mediocre 26/15 K/W this season (he's also just 1-1 with a 7.38 ERA on the road.)

Look for Ray to get the better of his counterpart.

Good luck...Larry

10* 37-CLUB on the Padres.

Off last night's 5-4 win, I look for the home side to carry that momentum over into this one, but I believe it'll be a much "easier ride" this evening.

St. Louis sends Adam Wainwright (2-3, 3.80 ERA) to the hill to face the Padres Chris Paddack (1-3, 4.78).

I love going against pitchers that are coming off a big game in their previous outing, and that's the case here with Wainwright, who gave up three hits over 8.1 shutout innings on Sunday vs. the pathetic Rockies.

Note though, while Wainwright is 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA at home, he's a poor 0-1 with a ballooned 6.85 ERA on the road. After his big win last time out, regression is imminent here for the 15 year veteran in my opinion.

Paddack is coming off a no-decision vs. the Giants on Sunday, going three scoreless, while striking out four. Paddack has uncharacteristically struggled at home this season (7.00 ERA), while domianted on the road (3.68), but we can expect these trends to start correcting here.

Finally, note that the Cards are just 2-6 in their last eight in trying to revenge a one-run road loss vs. an opponent.

When considering all of the above factors, I think we're getting a fantastic price on the Padres here.

Good luck...Larry

8* PITCHING MISMATCH on the Twins.

I think the Twins are going to bounce back strong here after losing eight of their last ten and with their "ace" on the mound.

Oakland cashed in for bettors last night as a slight -105 favorite. To say this is a "revenge game" for the home side would be a bit of an understatement as well, as Oakland swept a three-game set from the Twins at home at the start of the season.

Minnesota was dubbed by many to make a serious run at the pennant, but so far the Twins have worst record in the entire Majors.

But winning can lead to complaceny and losing invariably breeds motivation. After a series win in Boston and securing the opening series victory yesterday, I think the A's definitely take a step back here.

Cole Irvin (3-4, 3.29 ERA) and Jose Berrios (3-2, 3.49) or a "wash" here in my opinion. Minnesota though is 7-3 in its last ten after a five games or longer losing streak, and 8-4 in its last 12 in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent in which it was held to one run or less.

Great value on the "hungrier" revenge-minded home side.

The play is Minnesota.

Good luck...Larry

10* PERFECT STORM on the Jays.

I like the Jays "at home" in this one. I think Steven Matz (5-2, 4.86 ERA) is the correct call here over Phillies' starter Vince Velasquez (1-0, 4.18).

Velasquez enters off a strong start, going 5.1 innings and allowing one run off two hits in what turned out to be a no-decision to the Braves last Saturday. Velasquez is in trouble of losing his spot in the rotation if he didn't pick up his performance, and while he's done that over his last two outings, I think it's going to be asking too much from this volatile starter to produce three straight quality outings.

Matz comes in off his fifth win of the year last Saturday, conceding three runs off eight hits while striking out four over five innings over the hard-hitting Astros on Saturday. 

He also didn't walk anyone in the victory for the first time this season.

Philadelphia is better at home than on the road and everything points to that trend continuing here in the opener of this interleague matchup.

It's a PERFECT STORM of factors working in favor of the Jays here.

Good luck...Larry

8* LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Rays.

Considering the talent discrepany between the starting pitchers today, I believe that this line could or should in fact be much larger.

And that swings the value to the undervalued favorite.

New York is primed for a letdown after seven straight victories. Tampa Bay won't be taking anything for granted though, as it just broke a two-game slide with a 9-1 win over the Yankess last night.

David Peterson (1-3, 5.54 ERA) certainly isn't anything to write home about for the Mets. In his last outing he didn't even complete two innings before getting pulled. 

Tyler Glasnow (4-2, 2.27, 0.89 WHIP), gets the nod for the Rays. Glasnow has "struggled" a bit (for his lofty standards anyways), over his last three starts, but a date vs. this anemic Mets' line-up is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked.

Peterson has been the lone disappointment in the Mets rotation, and all signs point to that trend continuing here. New York itself has been overachieving of late. 

Look for the Rays to take advantage and lay the price with confidence.

Good luck...Larry

8* FALSE FAVORITE on the D-Backs.

Trevor Rogers (4-2, 1.89 ERA) has been phenomenal in the early going for the Marlins, but regression does seem imminent in my opinion.

Rogers gave up one run over five innings in a win over the Braves in his last outing. Previous to that he allowed three runs in a loss. The bottom line is though, the sample size is just too small and I think he'll finally struggle in this difficult road venue.

The Diamondbacks counter with Merrill Kelly (2-3, 5.40), who is coming off a loss vs. the Mets on Saturday. Kelly catches a break here though facing this inconsistent Marlins line-up, on his own field.

The Marlins just broke a four-game slide with yesterday's 3-2 win here, but previous to that the Diamondbacks had ttaken the first two games of this four-game series easily. I expect a "return to the norm" here for the home side, which is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent in which it was held to one or less runs in.

Great value on the home side, the play is Arizona.

Good luck...Larry

8* LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Reds.

It hasn't been the best overall start for the Reds in 2021, but they enter having won two of their last three, including a 5-1 victory at Pittsburgh yesterday afternoon.

Luis Castillo (1-4, 6.42 ERA), will try to bounce back in this difficult road venue. Castillo has struggled to this point, but he has the track record and pedigree to return to form and I certainly trust him a whole lot more than his volatile counterpart Chi Chi Gonzalez (1-1, 5.97), who was shelled for seven runs with just one strikeout over four innings in a loss to the Cardinals. 

Over his last two outings Gonzalez has conceded 11 runs off 13 hits spanning 8.2 frames of work.

The Reds have performed well in this spot for bettors as well, going 11-4 in their last 15 as a road favorite in the -135 to -145 range.

The Rockies have also been inconsistent at the plate. This one sets up well for the Reds in the opener of this series.

Lay the price.

Good luck...Larry

8* INTERLEAGUE CRUSHER on the Braves.

Off back-to-back losses to the Jays to open up this three-game interleague series, I like the home side to figure things out and to post a W here in the finale.

I had a free play yesterday on Toronto, and it won 4-1. With a tough series in Milwaukee tomorrow, there's added incentive for the home side to bounce back here.

Toronto has won three of four, but a three-game home series vs. the Phillies sets this up as trap/look-ahead spot for the visiting side.

The starting pitching matchup also favors the home side.

Toronto's Ross Stripling (0-2, 6.61 ERA) gave up three runs off six hits over three innings in a loss to the Astros in his last outing.

Atlanta's Charlie Morton (2-2, 4.98), enters off a crummy outing, allowing six unearned runs over only two-thirds of an inning in a blowout loss to the Phillies. Starts like that have been few and far between for Morton the last couple of years ago, and there's no reason not to think that he can't bounce back here (note he still owns an elite 40/14 K/W over 34.1 innings of work.) 

I like Morton in this matchup and I love the Braves to bounce back after two straight losses in this early contest. 

The price is definitely right too!

Lay it, the play is the Braves.

Good luck...Larry

8* PITCHING MISMATCH on Arizona.

I like Arizona to find a way to win this game.

The Diamondbacks crushed the Fish here 11-3 last time and while it likely won't be quite as lop-sided, I still do expect Arizona to win handily.

Zach Gallen (1-1, 3.04 ERA) used to pitch for the Marlins, going 1-3 with a 2.72 ERA, before being traded to Arizona for Jazz Chisholm.

In 25 starts in Arizona Gallen has been as rock-steady as you could possibly hope for, posting a 2.85 ERA.

Chisolm won't be playing for the Marlins today, he's on the injured list. 

Whoever the Marlins go with tonight (could be Nick Neidert, could be Trevor Rogers, or someone else), this play is based upon Arizona's starter.

The Marlins are a poor 2-9 in their last 11 after allowing ten or more runs to an opponent.

Look for Gallen and the Diamondbacks to get the job done in this one.

Good luck...Larry

8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH.

I definitely like Marcus Stroman (3-3, 2.10 ERA) and the Mets in this matchup. 

John Means (4-0, 1.37) is fresh off a complete-game no-hitter, and I love going against pitchers off such a huge accomplishment. He lost his chance for the perfect game in the third-inning. Hard to say anything negative about Means, I simply don't feel his absurd numbers are realistic or sustainable. Regression is imminent in my opinion.

Stroman won't be lacking for motivation. He's also typically a better home pitcher than on the road (although that's not the case this year, with a respectable 3.60 ERA at home, and a "lights out" 1.50 ERA on the road.) Regardless, Stroman enters with a sharp 29:7 K:BB over six starts this season.

Stroman also has the advantage of having a strong bullpen. Means doesn't. While the Mets have struggled against left-handers somewhat, I look for them to ride their current "ace" to a victory here in front of the home town crowd, as I do believe Means is in line for a big letdown. 

The play is New York.

Good luck, Larry

8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH.

I definitely like Marcus Stroman (3-3, 2.10 ERA) and the Mets in this matchup. 

John Means (4-0, 1.37) is fresh off a complete-game no-hitter, and I love going against pitchers off such a huge accomplishment. He lost his chance for the perfect game in the third-inning. Hard to say anything negative about Means, I simply don't feel his absurd numbers are realistic or sustainable. Regression is imminent in my opinion.

Stroman won't be lacking for motivation. He's also typically a better home pitcher than on the road (although that's not the case this year, with a respectable 3.60 ERA at home, and a "lights out" 1.50 ERA on the road.) Regardless, Stroman enters with a sharp 29:7 K:BB over six starts this season.

Stroman also has the advantage of having a strong bullpen. Means doesn't. While the Mets have struggled against left-handers somewhat, I look for them to ride their current "ace" to a victory here in front of the home town crowd, as I do believe Means is in line for a big letdown. 

The play is New York.

Good luck, Larry