My 10* WEEKEND WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (8:40 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to ace Ivan Nova (10-7, 3.62 ERA) who fell victim to hitter friendly Coors Field in his last start, giving up seven runs off nine hits to go along with five strikeouts over six innings in the eventual loss. 

But now Nova transitions to the pitcher friendly confines of Petco where he’ll be looking to improve upon his respectable 5-4, 3.33 ERA record in all “night” games this year and take advantage of the league’s worst offense.

The home side counters with the volatile Dinelson Lamet (4-4, 5.92) who after also getting blown up at Coors Field for six runs over four innings, bounced back with a decent effort against the Giatns on Sunday, allowing two runs over 6.2 innings (gave up eight hits though.) 

To go along with his poor 5.92 ERA, Lamet also sports an ugly 3.48 BB/9, numbers which suggest that rockier times are ahead (is 3-3 with a 5.82 ERA in all “night” games.) 

I think it’s interesting to note as well that Pittsburgh is 11-5 (+8.3 units) this year in all games played on a Saturday, while San Diego is just 6-10 (-2.6 units) in all Saturday games.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Chicago White Sox (7:10 EST).

I simply feel that Corey Kluber is overvalued in this matchup.

Kluber (8-3, 2.74 ERA) comes in off a gem against Toronto on Sunday, allowing one run off five hits and two walks while striking out 14 over seven innings. Kluber has been on a roll over the last month with a stellar 90/10 K/W ratio. Note that he’s 2-2 with a 3.35 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Miguel Gonzaelz (5-9, 4.60) who comes in off a gem himself against the hard-hitting Cubs on Monday, giving up one run off seven hits and three strikeouts over eight innings of work. 

In two starts since returning from shoulder injury, Gonzalez has quietly domianted, giving up just two runs over 13.1 innings (is 3-3 with a 3.58 ERA at home.) 

I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is just 1-5 (-8.8 units) this year as a road fav of -175 or more.

The White Sox are looking towards the future, but I think Gonzalez can match pace with Kluber inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I believe the value swings to the home dog. Play on the White Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST).

I like the home side to build off its convincing 10-3 win yesterday.

The visitors hand the ball to Sean Newcomb (1-5, 4.81 ERA) who gave up three runs and five walks over six innings in a no decision against the Dodgers on Monday. 

The sample size is still too small to properly judge Newcomb, who has looked brilliant at times and really poor in others.

The home side counters with Jerad Eickhoff (2-7, 4.71) who gave up two runs off three hits and two walks while striking out six over six innings in a victory over Milwaukee on Sunday. 

Eickhoff will look to build off that strong performance and improve upon his 2-2, 3.99 ERA record at home.

I’ll point out as well that ATL is just 11-15 (-2.9 units) this season in all road games when the money line is set between -125 and +125, while Philadelphia is 4-2 (+2 units) in its last six in all home games with a money line between +125 and -125.

I think Eickhoff is the correct call in this particular matchup and all things considered, I feel this is a great price in the end. Play on the Phillies.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominators is on the New York Mets (4:10 EST).

I don’t normally “flip flop” on a team (taking a side one night in a series, but then coming back with the other team the next night), but MLB is one the sport where every contest for the most part has to be looked at serparately (because of the starting pitchers) and while I had a play on Seattle last night, I think New York has a much bigger advantage on the mound on Saturday than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Jacob DeGrom (12-3, 3.30 ERA) who gave up two runs off five hits and two walks to go along with eight strikeouts over eight frames of work in the eventual win over the Padres on Monday.

DeGrom is rolling having won eight straight decisions (note that he’s 2-1 with a 2.60 ERA in all “day” contests this season.)

The home side counters with the volatile Yovani Gallardo (4-7, 5.58) who gave up three runs off five hits and three walks over five innings in a no-decision against the Yanks on Sunday. 

Gallardo caught a break, as all three runs he gave up were of the solo home run variety, so it clearly could have been a lot worse. Note that he’s just 1-3 with a 6.02 ERA at home this year.

It’s interesting to note as well that New York is 10-7 (+3.1 units) this season when playing on a Saturday, while Seattle is just 5-11 (-7 units) on all Saturday games. 

I like DeGrom to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart and I look for the Mets to build off yesterday’s win. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (10:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Rafael Montero (1-7, 5.19 ERA) who gave up three runs off seven hits and a walk while striking out four over seven innings in a loss to the A’s on Sunday. 

Montero owns a 1.73 WHIP and is 0-4 with a 6.11 ERA in all “night” games, which clearly doesn’t bode well in this late night West Coaster.

The home side counters with Ariel Miranda (7-4, 4.30) who gave up two runs off five hits and a walk while striking out four over 5.1 innings against New York on Saturday. 

Miranda has stumbled lately, but will now look to get untracked in front of the home town crowd and improve upon his already respectable 3-2, 3.24 ERA record in Seattle.

I’ll point out as well that New York is just 1-2 (-1 units) in its last three as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Seattle is 15-9 (+2.3 units) this year as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mariners.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:15 EST).

All things being equal between these starting pitchers, I don’t think that home field advantage can be overlooked as a big time factor in this matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Robbie Ray (9-5, 3.15 ERA) who gave up five runs off six hits and two walks over five innings in a loss to Washington on Sunday. Ray settled down after a disastrous first inning and is still on track for his best campaign as a pro.

The home side counters with Michael Wacha (7-4, 3.93) who also comes in off an outing to forget on Sunday, giving up five earned runs off six hits over six innings in the 5-3 loss to Chicago. The silver lining was that he struck out six and walked none. 

Wacha though had won four straight previous to that and posted a tiny 1.01 ERA and 0.86 WHIP during that stretch of dominance. 

Wacha is 6-1 with a 2.93 ERA at home and the Cards are 4-2 (+2.2 units) since the All Star break against teams with a winning record.

Arizona is a poor 5-7 (-3.9 units) against clubs with losing records in the second half.

For all the reasons listed above, play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Toronto Blue Jays (12:35 EST).

Sean Manaea has been awfully steady for Oakland this year, but I think Marcus Stroman and the hard-hitting home side still have a much bigger advantage than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

Manaea (8-5, 3.82 ERA) comes in off a dud against the Mets on Saturday, allowing four runs off ten hits while stirking out just two over five innings of work. 

Manaea has been the backbone of the rotation, but still owns just a pedestrian 4-4, 4.01 ERA road record.

Stroman (9-5, 2.98) comes in off a gem against Cleveland on Saturday, giving up one run while striking out seven over eight innings. 

Stroman has now given up just four earned runs over his last 34 innings of work (has been effective at home with a tiny 2.70 ERA as well.)

The best way to properly assess starting pitching is to loko at “recent form.” Stroman comes in on fire and looks determined to close the year strong despite whether his team scuffles or not. All things considered, I think this is a very fair price, play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Twins (10:10 EST).

I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the undervalued underdog, as I expect Alex Wood to have another letdown here after suffering his first loss of the season in spectacular fashion.

The visitors hand the ball to Ervin Santana (11-7, 3.26 ERA) who also comes in off an outing to forget against the Tigers on Friday, giving up five runs with three strikeouts over 3.1 innings. 

Santana has been solid this year and his peripherals suggest it’s no fluke. Also note that he’s been at his best on the road by going 7-2 with a 2.28 ERA thus far.

Wood (11-1, 2.17) was shelled for nine runs (seven earned) off nine hits and four walks over 4.2 innings to Atlanta on Friday. 

His first half numbers were clearly unsustainable and I expect rockier times ahead for the southpaw. 

I think Santana can match Wood inning for innning and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the underdog. Play on Minnesota.

UPDATE: Wood is out and Brock Stewart is in. This line will change significantly obviously, and I clearly still love Santana and the Twins in this spot. Stewart will be on a 50 to 60 pitch limit and it’s been reported that he was stricken with an illness last weekend. PLAY STILL VALID on TWINS.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:15 EST).

Ultimately i feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Jeff Hoffman (6-2, 5.10 ERA) who was shelled for seven runs off nine hits and four walks over three innings in a 13-5 loss to Pittsburgh on Friday. 

Hoffman has regressed significantly over the last month, posting a deplorable 8.44 ERA, 1.88 WHIP and 7/7 K/W over 16 innings spanning his last three starts. 

The home side counters with ace Carlos Martinez (6-8, 3.34) who gave up three runs (two earned) while striking out three over six innings in a no-decision against the Cubs on Friday. 

Martinez has allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of his last eight starts and he’ll now be looking to improve upon his solid 4-3, 2.90 ERA record at home.

I like Martinez to continue his strong play at home and I expect Hoffman to continue to nose-dive. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals (7:05 EST).

I think this one favors the home side. 

The visitors hand the ball to Jimmy Nelson (8-5, 3.43 ERA) who gave up four runs off six hits and a walk while striking out five in a loss to Pittsburgh on Thursday. 

Nelson has been as solid as Milwaukee could have hoped for this season, but if he’s had one clear weakness it’s been his play on the road where he owns a poor 4.96 ERA to this point.

The home side counters with Gio Gonzalez (8-5, 2.83) who also comes in off an outing to forget, giving up four runs off five hits and three walks over 5.2 innings in a 7-0 loss to the Angels on Wednesday. 

It was just the first time since May 25th that he’s not lasted at least six frames and while Gonzalez is just 1-2 at home this year, he owns a tiny 1.95 ERA in the nation’s capital.

I like Gonzalez to bounce back and outlast his counterpart and in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to the hard-hitting home side. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST).

I like the Rangers to respond after falling 4-0 on Monday night. 

The Marlins hand the ball to Dan Straily (7-5, 3.49 ERA) who gave up four runs off nine hits and three walks over five innings in a loss to Philadelphia on Wednesday. 

Straily has been solid across the board, but has been better at home (2.82) than on the road (4.37).

The home side counters with ace Cole Hamels (4-1, 3.78) who gave up seven runs off nine hits and two walks while striking out just three over 5.1 innings against the Orioles on Thursday. 

Hamels peripherals suggest he could be in store for rockier times ahead, but regardless of that, he’s been at this best at home this year with a 3-0, 2.22 ERA record thus far.

I’ll point out as well that Miami is just 7-10 (-3.3 units) in all interleague games this year, while Texas is 10-2 (+10.2 units) in all interleague contests.

I like Hamels to outduel Straily and for the Rangers to bounce back after getting blanked last night. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Kansas City Royals (7:10 EST).

I like Kansas City to build off yesterday’s 11-3 win. I actually had a play on the Tigers yesterday and while I never “flip-flop” on a team (playing on one team one night and then coming back with the other side the next night), MLB is the one sport where each game must be looked at by itself, because for the most part it’s all about the starting pitchers.

And in this case, Danny Duffy (6-6, 3.71 ERA) has much more than just a “punchers chance” in this matchup in my opinion. Duffy most recently gave up four runs while striking out four over five innings in a victory over Detroit on Thursday. 

It wasn’t his greatest start of the year obviously, but he had an early eight-run lead, so was able to throw it in cruise control and pepper the strike zone, which led to a couple of extra runs. To go along with his solid 3.71 ERA, Duffy also sports a 1.28 WHIP and 7.1 K/9 for the season (is 5-3 with a 3.31 ERA in all “night” games as well this year.)

The home side counters with Michael Fulmer (10-6, 3.06) who gave up eight runs off seven hits while striking out two over 2.2 innings in a loss to these very Royals throwing opposite Duffy last week. 

Granted those types of outings have been few and far between for Fulmer this season (and throughout his career), but note that Detroit has struggled in this spot all year by going just 25-37 (-12.1 units) in all “night” games, while conversely, the Royals have looked great by going 33-30 (+6.5 units) in all night contests.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Royals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Chicago White Sox (2:20 EST).

I had a play on the White Sox yesterday in their 3-1 victory as a large underdog and once again I think the visitors have much more than just a “punchers chance” this afternoon as well.

The White Sox hand the ball to Carlos Rodon (1-3, 5.75 ERA) who comes in off a crummy outing against the hard-hitting Dodgers on Wednesday, allowing five runs while striking out four over 3.2 innings of work. It was just his fourth start of the year, so it’s definitely still too early to properly judge the southpaw (note that Rodon owned respectable 3.57 ERA on the road last season.)

The home side counters with the volatile John Lackey (6-9, 5.04) who comes in off his best start of the year, giving up one run off five hits over five innings in a 5-1 win over Atlanta on Tuesday, managing just a single strikeout. 

For the most part though Lackey has been a complete disaster across the board for the defending champs, note that he owns a poor 1-4, 5.05 ERA record at home. 

The Cubs’ pitching remains overpriced. Rodon is being touted as the staff “ace,” but has yet to perform at the level since returning from injury. But here’s the perfect stage and opponent to get untracked against. The value once again swings to the visitors in Game 2, play on the White Sox.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (10:15 EST).

Gerrit Cole hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s coming off a strong outing and has been trending in the correct direciton of late.

The same can’t be said of Giants’ veteran Matt Cain, who will come out of the bullpen to make this start in place of the injured Johnny Cueto.

All things considered, I think the visiting could easily be a much larger fav in this matchup.

Cole (7-7, 4.18 ERA) struck out ten over seven innings and gave up one run in an unfortunate no-decision against the Brewers on Wednesday. 

Cain (3-8, 5.49) has been better at home than on the road this season, but note that the Giants are just 7-10 (-3.8 units) in July, while Pittsburgh is 12-6 (+7.3 units) this month.

These starting pitchers and teams are moving in the opposite directions. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:05 EST).

The visitors hand the ball to Antonio Senzatela (10-3, 4.67 ERA) who earned a win over San Diego on Tuesday despite giving up four runs off four hits. 

Senzatela only most recently rejoined the rotation after being demoted in June following an eight-start stretch in which he was shelled for 33 runs in 44.1 innings of work. 

The home side counters with Mike Leake (6-8, 3.39) who has struggled over the last month. Leake has just a 2-5 record at home despite a very respectable 3.38 ERA.

I like Leake to ‘right the ship’ tonight as I expect Senzatela’s inconsistencies to once again be a major factor. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST).

I don’t think that home field advantage can be overlooked in this one.

The visitors hand the ball to Jason Hammel (4-8, 4.81 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits and a walk over six innings in a no-decision against Detroit on Wednesday. 

Hammel has admittedly looked much better of late, but his Achilles heel has clearly been his play on the road this season, going just 1-4 with a 5.08 ERA. 

The home side counters with Justin Verlander (5-7, 4.54) who comes in off a great performance against the Royals on Wednesday, allowing two runs off six hits while striking out eight over seven innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. 

Verlander has been much better at home (3.59) than on the road (5.32) this year.

KC is just 17-23 (-5.4 units) against its division foes, while Detroit is 23-19 (+4.1 units) against the division.

Verlander continues to audition for other teams and I look for him to build off his latest performance. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

10* Daytime Dominator on the Chicago White Sox (2:20 EST).

I think this one sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the Cubs after their Sunday nighter against the Cardinals.

Miguel Gonzalez and the cross-town rival White Sox will look to sneak away with a winner in the opener as a big dog going away.

Gonzalez (4-9, 4.89 ERA) comes in off a gem against the hard-hitting Dodgers on Tuesday, allowing one run off five hits to go along with five strikeouts over six innings in what turned out to be a 1-0 loss (owns a respectable 4.31 ERA in all “day” games thus far.)

The home side counters with Kyle Hendricks (4-3, 4.09) who makes his first outing back after an extended stint on the DL again. He looked sharp in his final re-hab start but still owns a rather pedestrian 4.18 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season.

I’ll point out as well that the White Sox are 5-2 (+3.2 units) in their last seven “day” contets, while Chicago is 22-23 (-12.4 units) in all “day” games this year.

All things considered, I think the pressure is on Hendricks and the value is on Gonzalez. Play on the White Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the San Francsico Giants (4:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Dinelson Lamet (3-4, 6.40 ERA) who gave up six runs off four this and four walks in a 9-7 road loss at Coors Field on Tuesday. Lamet has 62 strikeouts in 45 innings of work, but his 3.8 BB/9 points to continued regression (is 1-3 with an 8.59 ERA on the road thus far.)

The home side counters with Ty Blach (6-5, 4.36) who held Cleveland to one run off seven hits while striking out three over seven innings on Tuesday. 

Blach has now posted three consecutive quality outings and he has to be feeling pretty confident that he can keep the momentum rolling as he’s 3-3 with a respectable 3.57 ERA at home so far this season.

For the most MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I think Blach should be a much larger fav in this particular matchup.

Play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (1:10 EST).

This has been a competitive series and I think the finale will also come down to the wire. And in a scenario like that, I think JA Happ and the hungry visiting side have much more than just a “punchers chance” this afternoon.

Happ (3-6, 3.55 ERA) comes in off his first truly poor outing of the year, giving up six runs (just two earned) off seven hits over four innings to the hard-hitting Astros on Sunday. 

Previous to that though Happ had posted five straight quality starts (note that he owns a very respectable 3.00 ERA on the road).

The home side counters with Corey Kluber (7-3, 2.86) who missed his last start with a neck injury. It’s hard to say anything negative about Kluber, but it’s yet to be seen if this latest injury is serious or not.

I’ll point out as well that the Jays have in fact excelled in this spot of late by going 7-5 (+2.4 units) in their last 12 against teams with winning records, while the Indians have struggled in this position by going just 5-8 (-10.8 units) in their last 13 against clubs with losing records.

In my opinion, the value is simply too good to turn down in a matchup which I feel is a lot more even than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. Play on the Jays.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (9:05 EST).

Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to David Price (5-2, 3.39 ERA) who comes in off a gem against New York on Sunday, going eight scoreless and posting an 8/0 K/W. Price is a solid 3-1 with a 3.97 ERA on the road this year.

The home side counters with JC Ramirez (8-8, 4.54) who gave up four earned runs off eight hits over six frames in a loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday. Ramirez has been better on the road (7-3, 3.60) that at home (1-5, 5.50) this season.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I absolutely feel that Price is the correct call. Lay the price with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (7:10 EST).

I like the Indians to build off yesterday’s 13-3 victory.

Toronto hands the ball to Marcus Stroman (9-5, 3.10 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits and three walks while striking out five in a no-decision against Boston on Monday. 

It’s hard to point out anything negative about Stroman this season, as he’s been solid across the board. I simply feel this is a bad spot for the hard-throwing right-hander.

The home side counters with Danny Salazar (3-5, 5.40) who makes his first big league start since late May. In his last warm up at Triple-A Columbus on Sunday, Salazar went six scoreless while scattering three hits and posting nine strikeouts (last year he was 5-2 with a 3.99 ERA at home.) 

Toronto’s dealing with injuries to its line-up, which doesn’t bode well in trying to match up against Cleveland’s big bats. I like Salazar to match Stroman inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel the advantage falls to the hard-hitting home side. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (4:05 EST).

I had a play on Chicago yesterday afternoon and the Cubs would fall apart late and give up nine runs in the top of the eighth. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting the defending champs to respond this afternoon.

This pick would be at the very uppermost juice that’d I’ll ever lay, but in this case I think it’s well worth it.

The Cards hand the ball to Adam Wainwright (11-5, 5.08 ERA) who comes in off a decent performance against the Mets on Monday, giving up three runs off six hits over five innings. 

Wainwright has been good at home (7-1, 3.19) and horrible on the road (4-4, 7.68).

The home side counters with Jon Lester (6-6, 4.07) who gave up one run off three hits and a walk while striking out six over seven innings in a victory over the Braves on Monday. It was a big step in the right direction to open the second half and he’ll now look to build upon his respectable 3-3, 3.73 ERA record at home.

No need to overthink this one in my opinion, as Wainwright has been at his worst on the road all year, while Lester has been at his best in “The Friendly Confines.” Lay the price, play on the Cubs.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Colorado Rockies (8:40 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Williams (3-4, 4.69 ERA) who gave up two runs off ten hits and two walks while striking out five over 5.2 innings in a victory over the Cards on Sunday. 

Admittedly, Williams has been a lot better of late, but he has consistently been at his worst on the road this year by going 3-3 with a 5.13 ERA.

Which clearly doesn’t bode well heading to hitter friendly Coors Field. 

Colorado counters with Jeff Hoffman (6-1, 4.33) who gave up four runs off seven hits over six innings in a victory over the Mets on Sunday. Hoffman is 2-1 with a 6.44 ERA at home and 4-0 with a 2.45 ERA on the road.

I’ll point out though that Pittsburgh is just 29-35 (-7.3 units) in all “night” games, while Colorado is 31-28 (+2.9 units) in all night contests.

I like Hoffman to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Minnesota Twins (8:10 EST).

Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. 

Detroit hands the ball to Anibal Sanchez (1-0, 6.08 ERA) who was shelled for five runs off nine hits while striking out three over six innings in a no-decision against Toronto on Sunday. Note that so far he’s 0-0 with a 6.33 ERA on the road this season.

The home side counters with ace Ervin Santana (11-6, 2.99) who gave up two earned runs off five hits while striking out three in a victory over Houston on Saturday. 

Note that he owns a 3.63 ERA at home and 3.48 ERA in all “night” games. 

The only question here is whether or not we think that Santana will have a big mental letdown or if he’ll come in focused on the task at hand? I think it’ll be the latter, as it’s his first start back from the break and he’ll be eager to prove that his first half dominance was no fluke. 

Lay the very reasonable price, play on the Twins.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Chicago Cubs (2:20 EST).

I think this is a matchup which favors the home side, making this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying.

The visitors hand the ball to Carlos Martinez (6-8, 3.36 ERA) who most recently gave up two runs off five hits and a walk while striking out five over seven innings in a loss to the Pirates on Sunday. 

Previous to his All Star appearance though, Martinez had given up five runs in two outings each to close the first half.

The home side counters with Jake Arrieta (9-7, 4.17) who gave up two runs (one earned) off four hits over 6.2 innings in a win over the Orioles on Saturday. 

Arrieta finished the first half strong by holding his opposition to one or fewer earned runs in three of his last five outings and he certainly has the pedigree and track record to continue his progression in the second half. 

And that’s exactly what I’m expecting here. Martinez struggled in his final two starts before the mid-summer classic and things certainly won’t get any easier in “The Friendly Confines.” Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick in my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (12:35 EST).

I think Jimmy Nelson and the hard-hitting Brewers have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one.

Nelson (8-4, 3.27 ERA) most recently gave up two runs off three hits and two walks while stirking out nine over 6.2 innings in a victory over the Phillies on Saturday. 

Nelson has now given up just 25 earned runs through 87 innings over his last 14 starts and he’s been super sharp in all “day” games by going 4-1 with a 1.58 ERA. 

The home side counters with Jameson Taillon (5-3, 3.06) who gave up four runs off eight hits over five innings in a loss to St. Louis on Saturday. 

Taillon for the most part has been solid, but he’s still a very average 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

I’ll point out as well that Milwaukee is 40-35 (+10 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Pittsburgh is 35-36 (-1.3 units) against right-handed starters.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Washington Nationals (10:05 EST).

Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Gio Gonzalez (8-4, 2.66 ERA) who went 8.1 scoreless innings against the Reds on Friday, giving up four hits and walking six. Gonzalez has to be feeling pretty confident here as he’s 7-2 with a 3.26 ERA on the road so far.

The home side counters with Ricky Nolasco (4-10, 4.82) who gave up one run off two hits and two walks while striking out six over seven innings in a no-decision against the Rays on Friday. 

Nolasco has looked a lot better of late, but he’s just 2-4 with a 4.42 ERA at home and only 4-7 with a 4.76 ERA in all “night” games.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I expect the red hot Gonzalez to get the better of his volatile counterpart. Play on the Nationals.

UPDATE: Nolasco is out and Alex Meyer is in. This play is STILL VALID! Meyer (3-5, 4.18) has good fast-ball velocity (90 MPH range) but has a lifetime 6.1 BB/9 at the major league level. Meyer has been better at home than on the road this year, but is still just 2-5 with a 4.50 ERA in all “night” games. 

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST).

Aaron Sanchez (1-2, 3.94 ERA) gets the call for the visitors and he most recently gave up one unearned run off seven hits over six innings in a victory over Detroit on Friday. 

Over seven starts this year Sanchez owns a poor 1.59 WHIP and 22:15 K/W through 32 innings of work. 

The home side counters with Drew Pomeranz (9-4, 3.75) who gave up four runs off six hits and two walks while stirking out seven over six innings in a no-decision against the Yanks on Friday. 

This was the first time that he’s given up more than two earned runs in any of his last six starts and note that he’s been particularly effective in this spot all year by going 8-3 with 3.61 ERA in all “night” contests thus far.

Sanchez was unbelievable last year, but I’m not a believer quite yet despite a decent outing in his last trip to the mound. Advantage Pomeranz. 

Play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (7:10 EST).

Ultimately I think that Zack Greinke and the hard-hitting visiting side should be much larger favorites than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

Greinke (11-4, 2.86 ERA) comes in off a gem, going seven scoreless with seven K’s in an eventual victory over the Reds on Friday. To go along with his solid 2.86 ERA, Greinke also sports an elite 1.00 WHIP and 10.1 K/9.

Greinke has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as well as he’s 10-3 with a 2.58 ERA in all “night” games thus far.

The home side counters with Tim Adleman (5-7, 4.99) who gave up five runs off seven hits and three walks while striking out four over 4.1 innings in a 5-0 loss to Washington Friday. 

Adleman has gotten progressively worse as the season has worn on, having now allowed at least three earned runs in five straight starts while failing to make it out of the fifth frame in any of them. 

Note that Adleman has been particularly poor at home as well with a 5.09 ERA to this point.

Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests that Greinke and the D-Backs should indeed be much larger favs in this particular matchup. Value swings to the visitors, lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (10:15 EST).

I like the visitors to build off last night’s interleague victory.

The Tribe hand the ball to Mike Clevinger (5-3, 3.00 ERA) who went six scoreless while striking out four in a win over Detroit on Saturday. 

Clevinger enters the second half on fire, posting a 1.67 ERA and 28 strikeouts over his last 27 innings of work. To go along with his solid 3.00 ERA, Clevinger also sports a sharp 1.15 WHIP and .184 BAA through 12 games (note that he’s 4-1 with a 2.56 ERA on the road as well.) 

The home side counters with Ty Blach (6-5, 4.60) who gave up three runs off six hits in a victory over Detroit on Wednesday. 

Blach has been “hit-or-miss” this year, but note that he’s consistently been at his most inconsistent in this spot, going a poor 5-5 with a ballooned 5.50 ERA in all “night” games.

I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is already 14-9 (+1.7 units) this season as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while San Francisco is 17-24 (-10.8 units) at home. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Indians.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Michael Wacha (6-3, 4.10 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits and two walks while striking out nine over 5.2 innings in a victory over Miami on Thursday. 

Wacha closed the first half of the 2017 season on fire by posting a superb 18/3 K/W over 11.2 innings of work. 

The home side counters with Rafael Montero (1-5, 5.77) who gave up four earned runs off eight hits over six innings in a loss to the light-hitting Phillies on Sunday. 

Montero has been particularly horrible at home this year as well, going 0-4 with a 7.11 ERA. 

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I think Wacha has a big advantage over his volatile counterpart. Play on the Cards.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Junior Guerra (1-3, 4.78 ERA), who returns from the DL to make this start. Guerra has so far fallen short of his spectacular 2016 and note that he’s been particularly horrible on the road by going just 1-2 with a ballooned 5.59 ERA. 

The home side counters with ace Ivan Nova (9-6, 3.21) who gave up two runs off three hits and one walk while striking out six over 6.2 innings in a victory over the Cubs on Saturday. 

Nova hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s consistently been at his best in front of the home town crowd by going 6-2 with a 2.63 ERA in Pittsburgh thus far.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, Nova has a clear advantage over his volatile counterpart. All things considered, I do indeed feel this is a great price. Play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST).

I like the home side to build off yesterday’s 3-1 victory.

The vistors hand the ball to Tyson Ross (2-1, 5.33 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits over five innings in a victory over the Angels on Saturday. 

Despite the victory Ross still struggled with his control, throwing just 48 of his 94 pitches for strikes. Note that he’s 0-0 with a 4.09 ERA on the road thus far.

The home side counters with Dylan Bundy (8-8, 4.33) who started the 2017 campaign on fire, but who predictably fell back down to Earth over the last month and a half. The third-year pro though has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as despite a 4-4 home record, he does sport a solid 3.56 ERA in Baltimore so far.

I’ll point out as well that Texas is just 20-26 (-1.3 units) on the road this year, while Baltimore is 25-19 (+5 units) at home. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Orioles.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST).

I had a 10* play on the Cubs in their 8-0 win over the Orioles yesterday, but I think the defending champs will take a step back on Monday night.

The visitors hand the ball to Jon Lester (5-6, 4.25) who gave up ten runs off six hits in a loss to the Pirates on Sunday.

Lester hasn’t matched his spectacular 2016 showing and has been particuarly average on the road this season by going just 2-3 with a 4.96 ERA. 

The home side counters with ace Julio Teheran (7-6, 4.79) who gave up no runs off four hits and two walks while striking out five over seven innings in a victory over Washington on Saturday. 

Teheran entered the break posting two consecutive quality outings and has the track record and pedigree to keep the momentum rolling in the second half.

I’ll point out that Chicago is just 30-39 (-27.2 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Atlanta is 7-4 (+4.9 units) against southpaws this season.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST).

The visitors hand the ball to Marcus Stroman (9-5, 3.28 ERA) who gave up one run off six hits and three walks while striking out six over seven innings in a victory over Houston on Saturday. 

For the most part Stroman has been one of the best in the AL this year, but if he’s had one weakness, it’s been his play on the road where he’s posted a pedestrian 4.14 ERA.

The home side counters with Eduardo Rodriguez (4-2, 3.54) who gave up one run off six hits and no walks while striking out seven over 6.1 innings in a re-hab start for Triple-A Pawtucket this past Sunday. 

Before he was injured Rodriguez was 1-0 with a tiny 1.56 ERA at home. 

I’ll point out as well that Toronto is just 16-21 (-6.2 units) against teams with winning records this year, while Boston is 21-14 (+1.7 units) against clubs with losing records.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Boston Red Sox (8:05 EST).

New York won 4-1 in extra innings last night, but I think that Boston bounces back in the finale of this series.

The visitors hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka (7-8, 5.47 ERA) who gave up five runs off six hits and one walk while striking out five over 4.1 innings against Milwaukee on Sunday. 

Tanaka has been all over the map as far as his game to game consistency is concerned this season, but he’s consistently been at his worst on the road where he’s just 3-4 with a 6.24 ERA. 

The home side counters with David Price (4-2, 3.91) who gave up two runs off five hits and two walks over six innings in a no-decision against Tampa Bay on Sunday, also going on to strike out five. 

Price is hitting his stride, having now posted four consecutive quailty starts with a 26/5 K/W over his last 25 innings of work.

I’ll point out as well that New York is interestingly just 7-9 (-4.4 units) when playing on a “Sunday” this year, while Boston is 9-5 (+1.4 units) in all “Sunday” games.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (1:35 EST).

I like the Cubs to build off yesterday’s impressive 10-3 victory.

The visitors hand the ball to the newly acquired Jose Quintana (4-8, 4.49 ERA), who will be looking to make a good first impression for his new club against a familiar AL opponent.

Quintanta has admittedly been more “miss” than “hit” this season, but it’s worth while to note that he does have 109 strikeouts over 104.1 innings of work thus far.

The home side counters with the volatile Ubaldo Jimenez (4-4, 6.67) who has been atrocious of late, failing to make it out of the fifth inning in three of his last four starts while posting a 7.97 ERA in that span (has a 7.24 ERA at home this year as well.)

I’ll also point out that Chicago is already 12-7 (+2.1 units) this season as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Baltimore is just 2-4 (-1.3 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Cubs.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the San Diego Padres (8:40 EST).

I had a play on San Francisco last night, the 10* pick in my Superstar Triple Play. However, I think that Jhoulys Chacin will continue his strong play at home and get the better of his veteran counterpart, who makes his long awaited return from shoulder injury.

The Giants’ Madison Bumgarner (0-3, 3.00 ERA) struck out eight over six innings in his final re-hab outing. 

Chacin (8-7, 4.32) gave up one run off three hits and two walks while striking out six over six innings in a victory over the Phillies on Saturday. 

Chacin has now allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last six starts and he has to be feeling really confident in this spot as he’s a superb 5-2 with a 1.68 ERA at home.

I like Chacin to outduel his still untested counterpart. Play on the Padres.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Milwaukee Brewers (7:10 EST).

Ultimately I believe this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Aaron Nola (6-6, 3.59 ERA) who has looked brilliant at times this year and really poor in others. Nola though comes in off a strong outing against the soft-hitting Padres on Saturday, allowing two runs off four hits over eight innings. 

The home side counters with Jimmy Nelson (8-4, 3.30) who gave up three runs off seven hits and two walks while striking out six over five innings against New York on Sunday. So far Nelson has 118 strikeouts over 109 innings of work and he has to be feeling very confident in this position as he’s 4-3 with a tiny 2.35 ERA in front of the home town crowd so far this year. 

I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia is just 14-37 (-19.4 units) in all “night” games this year, while Milwaukee is 31-24 (+13.4 units) in all night contests.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Detroit Tigers (6:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Francisco Liriano (5-4, 5.56 ERA) who gave up three runs off nine hits and a walk while striking out four over six innings in a victory over Houston on Thursday. 

Liriano though has been more “miss” than “hit” this season and is a deplorable 1-2 with a 7.20 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Michael Fulmer (9-6, 3.19) who comes in off a third-straight victory after giving up two earned runs over six innings in a 5-3 win over Cleveland on Sunday. Fulmer now owns a solid 1.19 WHIP over 17 first half starts and he has to be feeling pretty confident in this position as he’s 5-3 with a 2.78 ERA in all “night” games this year (I’ll point out as well that Toronto is just 22-32 (-16.6 units) in all “night” games this season).

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Tigers.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (10:10 EST).

Neither pitcher instills much confidence, but I like Johnny Cueto to get the better of his veteran counterpart today.

Cueto (6-7, 4.51 ERA) comes in off an outing to forget against Miami on Sunday, allowing six runs over six innings in the loss.

Cueto has the potential to be traded to a contendor if he can start to turn things around and he has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as note that San Fran is 2-1 (+1 unit) in its last three as a road fav of -125 to -175. 

The home side counters with the volatile Clayton Richard (5-8, 4.66) who gave up one run and one walk while striking out two over six innings in a no-decision against Philadelphia on Friday. 

It was likely his best start of the year, but he still got a no-decision for his effort. Note though that Richard is a poor 4-4 with a 5.40 ERA at home already this season. 

Also note that San Diego is a deplorable 14-23 (-4.8 units) this year against the division.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST).

Jon Gray has looked decent in his two starts back from injury, but I still think that Mets’ ace Jacob DeGrom has a big advantage on the mound tonight.

Gray (2-0, 3.75 ERA) most recently gave up three runs off eight hits over five innings in a win over the Reds on Wednesday. Gray has been decent at home (2.45 ERA) and pretty poor on the road (4.85) thus far.

DeGrom (9-3, 3.65) comes in off a pedestrian outing against the Cardinals on Friday, but still earned the win after giving up four runs with five strikeouts over seven innings of work. 

DeGrom is 5-1 on the road (with just a 4.63 ERA), compared to 4-2 at home with a highly respectable 2.56 ERA. 

I like DeGrom to outduel his inconsistent counterpart and for the Mets to kick off the second half with a solid victory. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST).

In my opinion, this line should in fact be a lot larger.

The visitors hand the ball to Michael Pineda (8-4, 4.39 ERA) who went three innings against Toronto on Wednesday, earning a no-decision after allowing five runs off three hits and striking out just one. 

Pineda has now been shelled for five or more runs in four of his last seven starts. And note, he’s been particularly incompetent on the road this season by going just 2-2 with a ballooned 5.73 ERA.

The home side counters with the surging Drew Pomeranz (9-4, 3.60) who gave up two runs off six hits and five walks over six innings while striking out six in an 8-3 win over Tampa Bay on Friday. 

Pomeranz is on fire, he’s won three straight and has earned a quality start in four of his last five outings while also posting a 1.82 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 25/11 K/W ratio in the process. 

Pomeranz continues his progression, while I believe Pineda’s road woes carry over. All things considered, this is the very definition of “great line value,” play on the Red Sox.

UPDATE: There has been an early morning pitching change with Pineda being swapped out for Jordan Montgomery (6-4, 3.65 ERA). This play is STILL valid! Montomery is being recalled to make this difficult road start, note that he owns a pedestrian 4.01 ERA in all “night games this season. The late change benefits Pomernaz. Play still active! 

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (4:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Homer Bailey (1-2, 12.66 ERA) who after getting absolutely annihilated over his first two starts of 2017, bounced back with his best effort so far by giving up one run over six innings in the eventual 8-1 victory over Colorado. 

The home side counters with Patrick Corbin (6-8, 4.81) who gave up three runs off seven hits and two walks over 4.2 innings in a 4-3 loss to LA on Tuesday. He’d strike out eight. 

Corbin has been hit or miss this year but has consistently been at his most consistent in front of the home town crowd by going 5-2 with a 3.17 ERA.

I’ll point out as well that Cincinnati is just 4-14 (-9 units) against southpaws this season, while Arizona is 43-24 (+17.3 units) against right-handed starters.

I think Bailey regresses again in this tough venue, play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (3:10 EST).

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Carlos Rodon (1-1, 1.59 ERA) who after looking pedestrian in his season debut, bounced back with a win in his second start against the A’s on Monday, allowing two runs off four this with three walks over six innings. 

I think the book is still out on Rodon though obviously as the sample size is simply too small (note that he was just 4-5 with a 4.01 ERA on the road last year).

The home side counters with Kyle Freeland (8-7, 4.09) who comes in off an outing to forget against Cincinnati on Tuesday, allowing five runs off eight hits and two walks while striking out one over 5.1 innings of work. 

Freeland has looked shaky of late, but has to be feeling confident that he can bounce back here, as note that he’s 4-4 with a 3.80 ERA at home (which actually is quite amazing considering it’s at hitter friendly Coors Field.) He’s also 6-2 with a 3.33 ERA in all “day” games.

I’ll also point out that Chicago is just 14-23 (-3.5 units) this year against clubs with winning records, while Colorado is 25-20 (+2.1 units) against teams with losing records. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Colorado Rockies (9:10 EST).

I think Colorado will build off its impressive 12-4 win over the hapless White Sox yesterday.

The visitors hand the ball to Jose Quintana (4-8, 4.45 ERA) who gave up five runs off six hits and two walks over 4.1 innings against Texas on Sunday. 

Quintana has for the most part been a big disappointment this season and he hasn’t been terribly great on the road either, going just 3-4 with a 4.01 ERA.

The home side counters with Jeff Hoffman (5-1, 4.01) who gave up three runs off four hits and three walks with four strikeouts over seven innings in a win over Cincinnati on Monday. 

Hoffman has now given up three runs in just one start in eight tries and he has to be feeling pretty confident in this matchup, as note that the Rockies are 29-21 (+9.2 units) this year following a victory and 16-11 (+8.7 units) against southpaws. 

Conversely, this is a spot in which the White Sox have struggled in, going just 19-27 (-2.3 units) following a loss and only 24-38 (-4.5 units) against right-handed starters.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Texas Rangers (9:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Jesse Chavez (5-8, 4.74 ERA) who held the Mariners to two runs off four hits over five innings. Chavez has a 6.12 ERA and 4.3 BB/9 over his last six starts. 

Note that he’s been particularly horrible on the road as well by going 2-5 with a 6.17 ERA.

Tyson Ross (1-1, 6.41) gets the call for the home side, he most recently allowed four runs off four hits over five innings in a no-decision against the White Sox on Sunday. 

Ross looks to continue his climb back to the top of the mountain and while he’s struggled in his limited time at home this year, it’s still significant to note that he finished with a solid 3.70 ERA in all home contests in 2016. 

I’ll point out as well that LA is just 21-27 (-7.2 units) this year against clubs with losing records, while Texas is 22-19 (+1.1 unit) against teams with losing records.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rangers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Philadelphia Phillies (4:05 EST).

Jhoulys Chacin is perhaps the biggest “Jekyll and Hyde” hurler in the game.

Chacin (7-7, 4.52 ERA) is a stellar 5-2 with a 1.68 ERA at home, but only 2-5 with an atrocious 9.08 ERA away from friendly confines.

Aaron Nola (6-5, 3.73 ERA) gets the call for the home side and he most recently went seven scoreless while notching eight strikeouts in a win over the Pirates on Monday, scattering four hits and allowing a single walk. In his two starts previous to that, Nola gave up three runs and posted 17 K’s spanning 14.1 innings. 

Nola looks to continue his climb back to the top of the mountain and must be feeling confident as he’s a solid 3-2 with a respectable 3.90 ERA at home this year.

I believe Chacin will get torched again on the road and I look for the surging Nola to once again come out on top. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (10:10 EST).

I like Seattle to bounce back off yesterday’s 7-4 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Sean Manaea (7-4, 3.75 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits and two walks while striking out six over 7.1 innings in a loss to the Braves on Sunday. Manaea has been very sharp this year and it’s hard to say too many negative things about him, so I won’t bother. I simply feel this is a bad spot for the A’s overall.

The home side counters with James Paxton (6-3, 3.27) who gave up one run off two hits and two walks while striking out three over 6.1 innings in a win over the Angels on Sunday. 

Paxton has also been incredibly consistent this year, especially at home where he’s 4-2 with a 2.68 ERA.

I’ll point out as well that Oakland is just 1-3 (-1.8 units) in its last four as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Seattle is 12-7 (+2.5 units) this year as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mariners.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST).

I like Boston to bounce back here after yesterday’s 4-1 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to the surging Drew Pomeranz (8-4, 3.64 ERA) who gave up one run over six innings in a victory over Toronto on Sunday. Pomeranz has now gone at least five innings with two earned runs or fewer allowed in seven of his last eight trips to the hill. 

Pomeranz has to be feeling pretty confident he can keep the good times rolling tonight, as he’s a solid 3-2 with a 3.07 ERA away from friendly confines.

The home side counters with Jake Odorizzi (5-3, 4.08) who gave up three runs off five hits and two walks over five innings in a victory over Baltimore on Saturday. 

Odorrizi has been solid of late, but note that he’s just 2-2 with a poor 4.78 ERA in all “night” games this year.

I’ll also point out that Boston is 40-28 (+3.9 units) this season against right-handed starters, while Tampa Bay is just 10-16 (-6.4 units) against southpaws. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

I like Toronto to build off yesterday’s victory.

The visitors hand the ball to Charlie Morton (5-3, 4.06 ERA) who threw a re-hab start in Double-A on Sunday. Prior to his injury Morton had posted a pedestrian 4.06 ERA. 

Morton though had been terrible on the road, just 1-2 with a 6.89 ERA.

The home side counters with Aaron Sanchez (0-1, 3.33) who has finally been reactivated after a finger injury kept him out for most of the year. His latest start in Triple-A was mediocre, but he still threw a mid-90’s fastball.

Houston has been one of the best teams in the AL over the first half, while Toronto has been one of the worst. That said, for the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I believe that Sanchez has a major advantage over his volatile counterpart.

Great value, play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Chicago Cubs (2:20 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Williams (3-3, 4.67 ERA) who gave up two runs off three hits and a walk while striking out three over six innings against San Francisco on Sunday. Willams has looked a lot better of late, but regression seems imminent considering he owns a poor 4.85 ERA on the road and a 5.44 ERA in all “night” games.

The home side counters with Eddie Butler (4-3, 4.18) who gave up four runs off five hits and three walks over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Reds on Saturady. 

Butler has been a bit unpredictable this year, but he’s consistently been at his best in front of the home town crowd with a 2-1, 3.18 record/ERA.

I’ll point out that Pittsburgh is just 12-17 (-3.9 units) against the division this year, while Chicago is 21-14 (+1.4 units) against divisional foes.

I like Chicago to bounce back after yesterday’s humbling 11-2 defeat to the Brewers. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Houston Astros (7:10 EST).

I feel Lance McCullers and the hard-hitting visiting side should in fact be much largers favs in this spot.

McCullers (7-1, 2.69 ERA) gave up three runs off six hits and two walks while striking out six over five innings in a no-decision against the Yanks on Friday. 

McCullers has to be feeling pretty confident that he’ll return to the winners circle tonight as he’s already 3-1 with a very respectable 3.02 ERA on the road thus far.

The home side counters with the volatile Francisco Liriano (4-4, 5.66) who was shelled for five earned runs off seven hits and three walks over six innings in a loss to Boston on Saturday. 

Note that so far Liriano owns a pedestrian 4.62 ERA at home and a 6.30 ERA in all “night” games.

I’ll also point out that Houston is 40-21 (+10.8 units) in all “night” games, while Toronto is just 21-31 (-16.9 units) in all night contests.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Astros.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (6:05 EST).

Here’s a great spot to pull the trigger on the slight home dog, as I like the Phillies to bounce back after yesterday’s 5-2 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Chad Kuhl (2-6, 5.26 ERA) who gave up one run off two hits and one walk while striking out three over six innings in a no-decision to the Giants on Saturday. Kuhl has looked better of late, but note that he’s still a poor 2-6 with a ballooned 6.98 ERA in all “night” games this season.

The home side counters with Jeremy Hellickson (5-5, 4.48) who gave up four runs off seven hits and two walks over seven innings while striking out four in a no-decision against the Mets on Saturday. 

Hellickson owns a 4.60 ERA at home and will look to take advantage of the fact that the Phillies are 3-1 (+2 units) in their last four when the money line in the game is set between +125 and -125.

And note, this is a spot in which Pittsburgh has struggled in, going just 16-23 (-8 units) againg clubs with losing records.

For all the reasons listed above, play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Supestar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Royals (10:10 EST).

Jason Vargas is getting little respect from the oddsmaker’s in this matchup.

Vargas (12-3, 2.22 ERA) continued his dominant season on Friday by giving up one run off two hits and four walks over seven innings while striking out four in an 8-1 win over Minnesota on Friday. The southpaw threw 60 of his 100 pitches for strikes and has now posted a quality outing in 12 of 16 trips to the hill this season. 

Note that Vargas has been particularly effective in this spot all year as well by going 5-2 with a 2.74 ERA on the road and 8-3 with a 2.33 ERA in all “night” contests.

The home side counters with Ariel Miranda (7-4, 3.82) who gave up zero runs over seven scoreless innings in Friday’s 10-0 win over LA. Miranda dominated the month of June with a 2.21 ERA and 0.76 WHIP, but I’ll point out that Seattle is just 28-29 (-2.7 units) this year in all “night” games.

Conversely, the Royals are 28-25 (+7 units) in all night contests.

Between these very evenly matched pitchers, I think this will prove to be the difference. Great value, play on the Royals.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST).

Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but I think that Andrew Cashner will take advantage of familiar surroundings and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Doug Fister (0-1, 4.91 ERA) gave up three runs off four hits and three walks over five innings in a no-decision against the Blue Jays on Friday. In two starts for his new team Fister has posted a poor 4.91 ERA (has an even worse 5.40 ERA on the road as well.)

Cashner (3-7, 3.87) has been on the DL after suffering an arm injury, but has thrown a recent bullpen session and has been given the green light on Wednesday night. Cashner has been far from perfect this year, but he’s consistently been at his best in front of the home town crowd with a solid 3.10 ERA.

I like Cashner to outduel the inconsistent Fister and all things considered, I do indeed feel that this is fantastic line value. Play on Texas.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (7:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Jayson Aquino (1-1, 9.00 ERA) who has been recalled from Triple-A Norfolk to make this start. So far Aquino has struggled in his limited time in the big leagues, which isn’t completely surprising considering his mediocre numbers in the minors (4.46 ERA and 55/24 K/W through 66.2 innings of work). 

The home side counters with Matt Garza (3-4, 4.36) who gave up two runs off six hits while striking out three over five innings in a no-decision against the Marlins on Friday. 

Note that the Brewers’ veteran has excelled in this spot over any other this season, going 2-1 with a respectable 3.52 ERA in all “night” games this year.

I’ll point out as well that Baltimore is just 9-12 (-2.9 units) on the road this season when the money line in the contest is set between +125 to -125, while Milwaukee is 7-1 (+5.4 units) this year as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New York Yankees (1:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Marco Estrada (4-6, 4.86 ERA) who has regressed as the season has progressed, going 0-4 with an atrocious 9.11 ERA and .353 BAA over 27.2 innings in June. 

Note that Estrada has been particularly poor on the road as well, going 2-4 with a 4.83 ERA. 

The home side counters with Michael Pineda (8-4, 4.05) who gave up three runs over six innings in a 13-4 win over Houston on Friday. 

Pineda has been far from perfect this year, but he’s consistently been at his most consistent in front of the home town crowd by going 6-2 with a 2.91 ERA thus far.

In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Boston Red Sox (8:05 EST).

I think David Price can match Yu Darvish inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to the hard-hitting visiting side.

Price (3-2, 4.61 ERA) comes in off his best start of the season, giving up three runs while striking out seven over seven frames in a victory over the Twins on Thursday. Price has now given up three runs or fewer in five of six starts and owns a respectable 1.27 WHIP and 7.9 K/9. 

Darvish (6-6, 3.11) gave up three runs off seven hits and a walk over six innings in a 5-3 loss to Cleveland on Wednesday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Darvish, as he’s been solid this year. I simply feel this is a bad spot.

As note that Texas is just 25-34 (-8.6 units) this season in all “night” games, while Boston is 32-25 (+2.1 units) in all night contests.

I think Price continues his progression and outduels Darvish on the road. Play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Houston Astros (7:35 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Brad Peacock (5-1, 2.72 ERA) who gave up one run off two hits while striking out seven over five innings in a win over the A’s on Thursday. 

Peacock laboured through parts of that outing, but still managed to find a way to win. To go along with his solid 2.72 ERA, Peacock also owns a respectable 1.23 WHIP and 13.2 K/9. 

Note that Peacock has been especially sharp on the road as well this season, 3-0 with a 2.82 ERA.

The home side counters with Sean Newcomb (1-2, 1.48) who went six scoreless against the Friars on Tuesday. Newcomb has looked good over his first four big league starts, but we think his numbers are unsustainable and are poised for regression in facing the league’s No. 2 offense.

And I’ll point out that Houston is 37-19 (+11.8 units) this year following a victory, while ATL is already just 4-7 (-3.2 units) after three or more consecutive wins.

I think Newcomb comes back down to Earth tonight and I look for Peacock and the hard-hitting Astros to take advantage. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Milwaukee Brewers (4:10 EST).

Ubaldo Jimenez is coming off a strong outing, but for the most part has been a complete train-wreck for the Orioles.

Jimmy Nelson hasn’t been perfect for Milwaukee this season, but he’s been pretty damn good and he enters this one off a gem. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a rout from start to finish.

Jimenez (3-3, 6.48 ERA) went eight scoreless against the Jays on Thursday, walking one and striking out eight. Previous to that though he’d allow nine runs over 2.1 innings to Tampa Bay. 

Jimenez owns an unimpressive 1.48 WHIP and 7.6 K/9 and is just 2-3 with a 6.02 ERA on the road.

Nelson (6-4, 3.43) struck out 11 over seven frames in an 11-3 win over Cincinnati on Thursday. Nelson owns a 2.64 ERA at home and is 2-1 with a 1.29 ERA in all “day” games.

I’ll point out as well that Baltimore is just 10-14 (-4.9 units) in all “day” games this season, while Milwaukee is 22-21 (+4.3 units) following a victory.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:15 EST).

Jeff Locke has been a train-wreck for Miami this year and while Adam Wainwright’s best days are clearly behind him, the veteran has looked great over his last two outings. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a blowout from start to finish in this one.

Locke (0-4, 5.52 ERA) comes in off a sub-par outing against the Mets on Wednesday, allowing three runs off four hits and two walks over five innings in the 8-0 setback. So far Locke has failed to complete six innings in any of his starts and he’s also given up at least three runs in five straight trips to the mound (is 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA on the road.) 

Wainwright (8-5, 5.17) gave up two runs off eight hits and one walk over six innings in a 4-3 win over Arizona on Wednesday. 

Wainwright has posted back-to-back solid performances and has the pedigree and track record to suggest that he’ll be able to close the first half of the season strong.

I’ll point out as well that Miami is just 17-22 (-6.6 units) this year against clubs with losing records, while St. Louis is 21-15 (+2.4 units) against teams with losing records.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST).

Ivan Nova has been solid this year for Pittsburgh, but I don’t think that home field advantage can be overlooked as a major factor in this one.

Nova (8-5, 3.08 ERA) gave up two runs off seven hits and two walks over five frames in a 6-2 victory over Tampa Bay on Wednesday (striking out just one.)

Note that he’s 2-3 with a 3.49 ERA on the road this season.

Aaron Nola (5-5, 4.13) comes in on top form with back-to-back gems, most recently giving up two runs off five hits and four walks while striking out nine over seven innings in a victory over the Mariners on Tuesday. 

Nola finished June with a 35/11 K/W ratio over 33.1 frames of work. Note that he’s completed at least six innings in four of his last five starts as well.

As solid as Nova has been this year, I think Nola continues his incredibly hot recent surge and all things considered, I do indeed feel this is a very fair price. Play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (7:05 EST).

Marcus Stroman has been the bonafide “ace” for the Blue Jays this season, but I still think that the correct call in this one is on Masahiro Tanaka and the hard-hitting home side.

Stroman (8-4, 3.41) posted a 3.69 ERA and had 28 strikeouts over 31.2 innings of work in June. Stroman is in the top ten in almost every positive statistical category there is for AL pitchers as we head into the break.

Tanaka (6-7, 5.56) put together a career year in 2016, but struggled over the first 2.5 months this season. 

Tanaka though has started to resemble his former self of late, most recently he gave up two runs off six hits with two walks and five strikeouts over six innings in a 12-3 win over the White Sox on Wednesday. Tanaka has now posted three quality starts in his last four trips to the mound and has a sharp 32/7 K/W and 2.92 ERA over 24.2 innings in that stretch. 

I’ll point out as well that Toronto is just 13-23 (-14 units) against the division this year, while New York is 20-13 (+6.5 units) against divisional foes.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Yankees.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:05 EST).

Max Scherzer has been dominating this year, but so too has his counterpart. I think Carlos Martinez can at the very least match Scherzer inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to the home side.

Scherzer (9-5, 2.06 ERA) comes in off a win against the Cubs on Tuesday, giving up one run off two hits over six innings. Scherzer is dominating in every facet of the game right now, but I simply feel this is a bad spot for the hard-throwing right-hander. 

Martinez (6-6, 2.88) gave up two runs off four hits and three walks while striking out ten over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision against Arizona on Tuesday.

Martinez has now posted a quality outing in 11 of his past 12 trips to the hill and has also struck out ten or more batters in four of his 16 starts this season (is 4-1 with a 1.85 ERA at home as well.)

For all the reasons listed above, play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (4:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel that this is a bigger mismatch than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to German Marquez (5-4, 4.38 ERA) who was rocked for five runs off seven hits and two walks while striking out two over just four innings in a loss to the Giants on Monday. 

Marquez has looked brilliant at times and very poor in others, note that he’s 0-3 with a ballooned 5.09 ERA in all “day” games this season.

Taijuan Walker (6-3, 3.50) gave up five runs (three earned) off six hits and five walks over 6.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision against St. Louis on Tuesday. 

Walker has struggled a bit of late and despite just a 1-2 record in all “day” contests this year, he does sport a highly respectable 2.30 ERA in such instances.

Walker has been far from perfect, but I’m still giving him the big nod in this particular matchup. And that’s enough for me to pull the trigger on the home side.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Boston Red Sox (1:05 EST).

Joe Biagini has been the victim of some poor run support this year, but despite that fact, I still believe that this one favors Drew Pomeranz and the hard-hitting visiting side.

Pomeranz (7-4, 3.81) gave up one run off four hits while striking out seven over five innings in a 9-2 win over the Twins on Tuesday. 

Pomeranz is now finally starting to hit his stride in the Junior Circuit, enjoying his best stretch since coming over to the Red Sox by going 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA over his last seven trips to the hill (note that he owns a very respectable 3.32 ERA on the road so far this year as well.)

Biagini (2-7, 4.05) struggled mightily in June, going 1-4 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over 26 innings. 

And I’ll point out that Boston is 38-27 (+3 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Toronto is just 6-13 (-10.7 units) against southpaws.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (10:05 EST).

Neither pitcher instills much confidence, but I think Ricky Nolasco is going to carry the momentum over from his best start of 2017.

The visitors hand the ball to Sam Gaviglio (3-2, 3.38 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits over six innings in a loss to Houston on Saturday, walking three and striking out three. Gaviglio has been decent in his role as starter, but still owns just a 5.40 ERA in all night contests this year.

Nolasco (3-9, 4.86) left his last start early after taking a line drive off the leg, but looked dominant before that in throwing six scoreless. 

I’ll point out that Seattle is just 27-27 (-1.2 units) this year in all “night” games, while LA is 34-29 (+8.9 units) in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (10:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Tyler Chatwood (6-8, 4.32 ERA) who gave up four runs over three innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Saturday. Chatwood now owns a miserable 77/50 K/W ratio and is just 3-7 with a 5.31 ERA in all “night” games.

The home side counters with Zack Greinke (9-4, 3.08) who comes in off a gem against Philadelphia on Monday, giving up one run over five innings to go along with five strikeouts. To go along with his solid 3.08 ERA, Greinke also owns a stellar 114/22 K/W ratio (he’s also 7-0 with a 2.68 ERA at home this season.)

In my opinion, Greinke and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this spot. Play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:15 EST).

I like Michael Wacha to get the better of Gio Gonzalez this evening.

Gonzalez (7-2, 2.87 ERA) gave up one run off two hits over six innings in a loss to the Cubs on Monday. The southpaw labored through the performance, needing 113 pitches to get through the six frames. 

While he’s 6-1 on the road this year, he owns a poor 4.06 ERA away from friendly confines.

Wacha (4-3, 4.50) gave up one run off five hits and one walk over six innings in a win over Cincinnati on Monday, also going on to strike out five. After a shaky stretch, Wacha looked a lot better in this one and he’ll now be looking to improve upon his very respectable 4-1, 3.26 record/ERA in St. Louis.

I’ll point out as well that Washington is interestingly just 5-6 (-4 units) this year when playing on a Saturday, while St. Louis is 6-5 (+1.3 units) in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:15 EST).

Neither of these starters instills a ton of confidence, but I don’t think that home field advantage can be overlooked in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Tanner Roark (6-5, 5.15 ERA) who gave up six runs off nine hits over six innings against Cincinnati on Sunday. Roark has now been blasted for 19 earned runs over his last 13.2 innings of work and owns a pedestrian 4.95 ERA on the road this year.

Mike Leake (5-6, 3.12) comes in off a no-decision to Pittsburgh on Sunday, giving up three runs off six hits while striking out two over six innings. 

Despite his 1-4 record at home, Leake does own a respectable 3.44 ERA in St. Louis (and a 2.98 ERA in all “night” games).

I think Leake and the Cardinals could easily be much larger favs in this spot. Roark is steadily regressing and all signs point to another meltdown here. Play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST).

These veteran starters are enjoying resurgent campaigns, but ultimately I think that home field advantage will prove to be a major factor in the final outcome.

Ervin Santana (10-4, 2.80 ERA) went six scoreless against the Tribe on Sunday. Previous to that though Santana had allowed 11 runs over two starts. 

It’s hard to say too many negative things about Santana, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that Jason Vargas has the advantage at home today.

Vargas (11-3, 2.29) gave up two runs off eight hits while striking out two over seven innings in a win over Toronto on Saturday. Vargas has won six straight decisions and is 6-1 with a 1.92 ERA at home this year. 

I’ll point out as well that Minnesota is just 1-3 (-2.2 units) in its last four against southpaws, while KC is 3-1 (+2.3 units) in its last four against right-handed starters.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Royals.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Doug Fister (0-1, 4.50 ERA) who made his debut for the Red Sox on Sunday, giving up three runs off seven hits and three walks over six innings against LA on Sunday. 

It was a decent first outing for Fister. Note that he was 9-6 with a pedestrian 4.61 ERA on the road last year.

The visitors counter with Marco Estrada (4-6, 4.89) who gave up three runs off five hits and four walks while striking out six over seven innings in a loss to KC on Saturday. 

Estrada had looked shaky before this latest decent effort, but he has the pedigree and track record to continue to progress as the season reaches the half-way point.

Estrada has struggled at times this season and looked brilliant in others and while he’s been far from perfect, I still believe he should be a much bigger fav in this particular matchup. I think Fister takes a step back in his second startl lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST).

A couple of volatile hurlers go head-to-head in this one, but I don’t think that “home field advantage” can be overlooked in this spot. 

The visitors hand the ball to Seth Lugo (2-1, 3.72 ERA) who earned a win against San Francisco is in his last start Friday despite giving up four runs off seven hits and three walks over 5.2 innings of work. 

Lugo is in the starting rotation out of necessity, but owns a poor 6.35 ERA in all “night” games this year.

Jose Urena (6-3, 3.33) actually comes in off a great outing against Chicago on Friday, giving up zero runs off five hits and three walks over six innings in a victory. 

Urena has now given up just three runs over his last 18 innings spanning three starts and note that he’s been particularly sharp at home by going 3-2 with a 2.98 ERA.

New York will continue to struggle until it can get some of its starting rotation back. Urena and the Marlins take advantage here and all things considered, I do indeed feel this is a very fair price.

Play on Miami.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (7:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound that what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Jimmy Nelson (5-4, 3.50 ERA) who gave up four runs off six hits and three walks over five innings in a 5-4 loss to the Braves on Friday. Nelson now has a 68/14 K/W ratio over 58.1 innings over his last nine outings to go along with a 2.78 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. 

The home side counters with Homer Bailey (0-1, 43.20) who was annihilated in his first start back to the rotation, allowing eight runs off six hits and three walks while striking out two over just 1.2 innings in a loss to Washington Saturday. 

I don’t think there is any need to overthink this one. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and while Nelson has hardly been perfect this year, he’s still putting together one of the strongest campaigns of his career. 

All things considered, I think Nelson and the Brewers offer great value in this matchup.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

I played the Pirates on Wednesday and I think this is a matchup which favors the home side as well on Thursday.

The visitors hand the ball to Chris Archer (5-4, 3.75 ERA) who earned a win Friday against Baltimore despite giving up five runs off eight hits over six innings. Archer has now failed to post a quality start in two of his last three outings and note that he owns a pedestrian 4.17 ERA on the road thus far.

The home side counters with Jameson Taillon (3-2, 3.33) who gave up two runs off four hits and two walks while striking out seven over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision against St. Louis on Friday. To go along with his highly respectable 3.33 ERA, Taillon also sports a sharp 46/18 K/W over 51.1 innings of work.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and often the best indicator we have when trying to properly assess a starter is “recent performance.” All things considered, I think we’re getting great value on Taillon and the home side in this one.

Play on Pittsburgh.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

Adam Wainwright (7-5, 5.75 ERA) is clearly not the same pitcher he was three years ago. Wainwright comes in off a decent outing, giving up two runs off two hits and two walks over seven innings on Friday in what turned out to be a no-decision in a 4-3 loss to Pittsburgh. 

Wainwright has been hit or miss all year, but he’s been at his absolute worst on the raod, going 2-4 with an atrocious 9.48 ERA. 

Zack Godley (3-1, 2.53) gave up three runs off four hits and a walk while striking out eight over seven innings in a win over the Rockies on Thursday. Considering the game was at Coors, clearly his performance was an absolute gem. 

To go along with his very respectable 2.53 ERA, Godley also sports a tiny 1.00 WHIP and 8.2 K/9 through nine starts and is 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

I’ll point out that the Cardinals are just 27-31 (-9.9 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Arizona is 39-20 (+18.4 units) against right-handed starters. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout WInner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

Blake Snell got destroyed in the majors over the first two months and was sent to the minors. Snell did well in Triple-A and is now back in the bigs for his first start since. 

Ivan Nova on the other hand has been very solid from the get-go and I think his long-term consistency and true dominance in front of the home town crowd will ultimately prove to be the difference today.

Snell (0-4, 4.71 ERA) posted a 2.66 ERA in five wins in Triple-A, but there’s no denying his struggles at the major league level, where he owns a poor 1.62 WHIP so far.

Nova (7-5, 3.05) hasn’t been perfect this year, but “duds” have been few and far between. That said, he’ll definitely be looking to get back on track after allowing four runs while striking out five in a loss to the Brewers on Thursday. 

Nova has to be feeling pretty confident here though, to go along with his 1.08 WHIP, he’s also 5-2 with a 2.53 ERA in Pittsburgh. 

I’ll point out that Tampa Bay is just 6-13 (-7.4 units) in all road games this year when the money line is between +125 and -125, while Pittsburgh is 9-4 (+3.4 units) as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Diego Padres (10:10 EST).

While neither of these starters instills much confidence, I don’t think that “home field advantage” can be overlooked in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Sean Newcomb (0-2, 1.96 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits over six innings in a no-decision against San Francisco on Wednesday. Newcomb has looked decent in his three starts this year, but his ERA is unsustainable given his pedestrian 13/7 K/W ratio spanning 18.1 innings of work. 

The home side counters with Jhoulys Chacin (6-6, 4.95), who comes in off a gem against the Cubs on Tuesday, allowing two runs over six innings while also striking out six. Chacin has now posted three straight quality starts and note that he’s a sparkling 4-1 with a minuscule 1.72 ERA at home so far this year.

I think these road/home performance trends carry over here, play on the Padres.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (8:10 EST).

New York almost blew a 6-1 lead in the bottom of the night last night, but held on for the 6-5 win. I think “The Evil Empire” also has an advantage on the mound tonight and I look for it to find a way to deliver the goods once it’s all said and done.

Luis Severino (5-3, 3.30 ERA) most recently gave up five earned runs over six innings while striking out five in a loss to the Angels on Thursday. Severino has looked a little shaky over his last two starts, but note that he’s a sparkling 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA on the road this season.

The home side counters with Jose Quintana (4-8, 4.69) who went 6.2 scoreless innings while stirking out nine in a win over the Twins on Thursday. Quintana has looked better of late, but note that he’s still just 1-4 with a ballooned 5.94 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year.

I’ll also point out that the Yankees are already 23-16 (+3.2 units) this season following a victory, while Chicago is only 16-25 (-3.9 units) following a loss.

For all the reasons listed above, play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NL SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST).

Robert Gsellman is only in the Mets starting rotation because of massive injury to the unit.

Gsellman (5-5, 6.04 ERA) would give up eight runs (seven of them earned), off nine hits and three walks over 4.1 innings to the Dodgers on Tuesday. The struggling right-hander would allow four home runs in that one as well. 

Unfortunatley for Gsellman, a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track, as he’s a horrible 2-2 with a ballooned 7.71 ERA away from friendly confines this season.

Dan Straily (5-4, 3.43) hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s been solid and he comes in off a gem against Washignton on Wednesday, allowing one run off three hits and one walk while striking out six over six innings.

Straily has now given up three free passes over his last five starts and note that he owns a solid 2.17 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year.

I’ll point out as well that New York is just 11-13 (-2 units) in June, while Miami is 13-10 (+4.8 units) overall this month.

These starters and teams are moving in opposite directions. Play on the Marlins.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

Neither pitcher instills much confidence, but Kevin Gausman has been horrible on the road, while Joe Biagini has been pretty good in front of the home town crowd this season. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting these road/home performance trends to carry over here.

Gausman (3-7, 6.47 ERA) comes in off perhaps his best start of the 2017 campaign, allowing three runs off six hits and two walks while striking out nine in a loss to the Indians on Wednesday. To go along with his unsightly 6.47 ERA, Gausman also owns a poor 1.88 WHIP. And note that he’s posted a deplorable 1-4, 9.00 ERA on the road so far.

Biagini (2-6, 4.45) comes in off a 7-5 win over Texas on Wednesday, allowing four runs off seven hits while walking five over six innings of work. The performance snapped a four-game losing streak. Note that Biagini owns a highly repsectable 2.93 ERA in Toronto this year.

Both starters and each of these teams have struggled this year. However, Gausman’s complete ineptitude on the road is the difference maker in this one. Lay the price with confidence, play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the San Francisco Giants (10:05 EST).

The Giants will be desperate here, they’ve lost five in a row and nine of their last ten.

The visitors hand the ball to German Marquez (5-3, 3.92 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits and two walks over six frames in a 4-3 win over Arizona on Tuesday. 

It was the first time that Marquez has made it through six innings though since May 23rd and note that if he’s had one clear weakness this year, it’s been his play in all “night” contests, going a poor 2-3 with a 6.19 ERA.

The home side counters with Jeff Samrdzija (2-9, 4.74) who gave up three runs off six hits over seven innings while striking out eight in a no-decision to Atlanta on Wednesday. It was his third quality start in his last four trips to the hill. 

Samardzija is quietly flying under the radar right now as he owns a ridiculous 82/4 K/W raito over his last 74.1 innings of work. 

I’ll point out that Colorado is just 2-6 (-4.8 units) this year after allowing ten runs or more, while San Francisco is interestingly, 6-3 (+5.2 units) when playing on a Monday.

I think the hungry home side finally gives Samardzija some support. Play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

8* Weekly Wipeout Winner on Washington Nationals (7:05 EST).

I think Gio Gonzalez and the hard-hitting home side have a clear advantage tonight.

The Cubs hand the ball to Eddie Butler (3-2, 4.19 ERA) who gave up one run off five hits and three walks while striking out four over four innings in a no-decision to San Diego on Wednesday. Butler took advantage of a favorable matchup in that one, but has been pretty pedestrian overall in a starters role with a 4.19 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over 38.2 innings. 

Butler is 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA at home, but only 1-1 with a 5.63 ERA on the road.

Gonzalez (7-1, 2.96) gave up three runs off six hits and two walks while striking out eight over seven innings in a 12-3 win over Miami on Tuesday. The southpaw threw 71 of his 101 pitches for strikes and won his fourth straight decision and posted his fifth straight quality start. 

Gonzalez is 6-1 with a 4.06 ERA on the road and is 1-0 with a 1.66 ERA at home.

I’ll point out as well that Chicago is just 13-17 (-8.4 units) this season against clubs with winning records, while Washington is 9-5 (+3.4 units) against teams with winning records.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Nationals.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:05 EST).

Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Chad Kuhl (2-6, 5.46 ERA) who has for the most part been a disater this year. While he does come in off a win against Milwaukeeon Tuesday, he’s still just 2-6 with a ballooned 6.95 ERA in all “night” games. 

The home side counters with Mike Leake (5-6, 3.03), who has been far from perfect this season, but who has been much more consistent that Kuhl. Leake also comes in off a gem, giving up one run off three hits and two walks over six innings. Leake owns a 3.30 ERA at home and 2.82 ERA in all “night” contests.

I’ll point out that Pittsburgh is just 14-18 (-4.6 units) this year against clubs with losing records, while St. Louis is 19-14 (+1.6 units) against teams with losing records. 

After yesterday’s 7-3 defeat, I ilke St. Louis to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Diego Padres (4:40 EST).

Neither pitcher instills much confidence, but I think home field advantage can’t be overlooked in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Jordan Zimmermann (5-5, 5.25 ERA) who gave up three runs over 6.2 innings in a 5-4 loss to Seattle on Tuesday. Zimmermann has looked better of late, posting four straight quality starts, but note that he’s been at his absolute worst on the road this year, so far 0-3 with a ballooned 5.98 ERA.

The home side counters with Clayton Richard (5-7, 4.20) who come in off a strong outing against the Cubs on Monday, holding the defending champs to two runs off five hits and three walks while striking out three over six innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. 

Richard is a respectable 4-3 with a 4.01 ERA at home this year. 

I’ll also point out that Detroit has really struggled in this spot for bettors all season by going a poor 14-21 (-8.4 units) when playing against a team with a losing record, while conversely, this is a spot in which San Diego has done quite well in, going 15-14 (+3.7 units) against teams with losing records. 

I like Richard to outduel his volatile counterpart. Play on the Padres.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (4:10 EST).

I think the Mariners will bounce back here after yesterday’s 5-2 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Francis Martes (2-0, 5.02 ERA) who makes a spot start in place of Brad Peacock. This is Martes’ third career major league start, having gone 5.2 innings of three run ball against Oakland on Tuesday. 

The home side counters with Ariel Miranda (6-3, 4.04) who gave up two runs off four hits with two walks and three strikeouts in a no-decision against Detroit on Tuesday. 

Miranda has struggled at times this year, but he’s consistently been at his best at home with a 3-1, 2.20 record/ERA.

If Houston has had one weak spot this year, it’s been its play against southpaws, currently -2.8 units for the season. The M’s on the other hand have struggled in almost every statistical category there is this year, but note they’re +1.8 units against right-handed starters.

I think Miranda is the correct call in this one, play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (4:05 EST).

I absolutely feel that Matt Moore and the Giants should be much largers favs in this particular matchup. Great value on the home side.

The Mets hand the ball to Rafael Montero (0-4, 6.49 ERA) who in two starts this season has posted a horrible 10.80 ERA over a total of 6.2 innings. 

Moore (3-7, 5.82) comes in off a great outing against the Braves on Tuesday, giving up three runs off seven hits over seven innings. Moore is just 2-3 in San Francisco this year, but does own a very respectable 3.07 ERA.

Recent form suggests that Moore is the correct call in this one. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (10:10 EST).

Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Lance McCullers (6-1, 2.58 ERA) who has been on the DL since June 12th. McCullers recently threw a couple of bullpen sessions this week though and he’s been cleared to go.

When McCullers faced the Mariners on April 4th, he was dominant in allowing one earned run off five hits and two walks to go along with seven strikeouts over six innings of work. Note that he’s a solid 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA on the road thus far.

The home side counters with Sam Gaviglio (3-1, 3.43) who will get another start in the rotation before some of the starters return from injury. Gaviglio’s peripheral’s (5.89 FIP) suggest he’s been pretty lucky to this point though, which doesn’t bode well in facing this dangerous Astros line-up.

I’ll point out as well that Houston is 26-10 (+11.7 units) against the division already this year, while Seattle is just 13-16 (-2.7 units) against divisional foes.

I’m expecting a rout from start to finish. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:15 EST).

Both starters have been hit-or-miss this year, but Lance Lynn has been dominant in home games and I think he’ll continue his strong play in St. Louis against the volatile Gerrit Cole.

Cole (5-6, 4.28 ERA) comes in off a decent outing against the Brewers on Monday, giving up one run off three hits and two walks while striking out five over seven innings. Cole has looked fantastic at times this year and really shaky in others, especially on the road where he’s just 3-4 with a 5.01 ERA.

Lynn (5-4, 3.33) threw five scoreless against the Brewers before then giving up seven runs off nine hits while striking out five over 4.2 innings in a loss to Baltimore on Sunday. 

As mentioned off the top though, Lynn has consistently been at his most consistent in front of the home town crowd this season with a very respectable 3-1, 1.53 record/ERA.

I’ll point out as well that Pittsburgh is just 13-18 (-5.8 units) this year agianst clubs with losing records, while St. Louis is 19-13 (+2.8 units) aginst teams with losing records.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominators is on the Washington Nationals (4:05 EST).

Joe Ross has been hit or miss this year for the Nationals, but I think he’ll do more than enough to get the better of his counterpart Homer Bailey today.

Bailey (0-0, 0.00) makes his season debut tonight against the league’s No. 1 offense. Bailey didn’t decently during his re-hab, but has been out since undergoing arm surgery in February. 

Note that he was 2-2 with a 5.74 ERA on the road last year.

Ross (3-3, 5.98) gave up four runs off nine hits and one walk across six innings in a loss to the Mets on Sunday. Note though that only two of the runs given up were earned. 

Ross now has two quality starts in his last three tries. 

I think Ross will easily match whatever Bailey does today and in a scenario like that, I’ll take the hard-hitting home side. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Astros (10:10 EST).

I think the Astros and Joe Musgrove offer a lot value in this spot.

Musgrove (4-6, 5.09 ERA) is coming off an outing to forget against Boston on Sunday, giving up five runs off six hits and two walks to go along with seven strikeouts over 5.2 innings. Musgrove looks to return to form in the Pacific Northwest tonight, note that he’s been at his best so far on the road this year by going 2-0 with a 4.24 ERA.

The home side counters with Felix Hernandez (2-2, 4.73) who is being activated from the ten-day DL to make this start. Hernadez just threw six shutout innings in Triple-A Tacoma and has been given a clean bill of health. 

Hernandez has been better at home than on the road this season, but note that Seattle has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 13-16 (-2.7 units) against the division.

Conversely, the Astros have been at their best against divisional foes, so far 26-10 (+11.7 units).

I think Musgrove can match Hernandez inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I do definitely feel that the value swings to the hard-hitting Astros.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Texas Rangers (7:05 EST).

I think Yu Darvish and the hard-hitting Rangers are the correct call in this matchup.

Darvish (6-5, 3.35 ERA) comes in off his worst start of the year, giving up five runs off eight hits over five innings while striking out six in a loss to the Mariners on Sunday.

No need to overreact to one poor outing though, as the five runs allowed was the most he’s given up this season. Also note that he’s been at his best away from friendly confines this year by posting a 3-2, 2.65 record/ERA.

The home side counters with the struggling Masahiro Tanaka (5-7, 6.34) who comes in off another poor outing, giving up five runs off eight hits and a walk while striking out ten over four innings in a loss to Oakland on Saturday. To go along with his atrocious 6.34 ERA, he also owns a horrible 1.49 WHIP. 

Tanaka’s peripherals suggest rockier times are ahead as well (5.65 FIP). Also note that he’s been poor at home, only 3-3 with a 5.88 ERA. 

I’ll point out as well that Texas is 10-8 (+4.2 units) in the month of June, while New York is just 9-11 (-6.4 units) in June.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rangers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (8:15 EST).

JA Happ has looked a lot better for the Jays of late and I’m banking on the veteran carrying that momentum over here.

Happ (2-4, 4.26 ERA) owns a 1.21 WHIP to this point and most recently gave up three runs off eight hits with no walks while striking out nine over seven innings in a win over the White Sox on Sunday. Happ has two quality starts in a row while posting a 17/1 K/W ratio over his last 12.2 innings of work. 

The home side counters with Jake Junis (2-1, 5.56) who owns a 1.72 WHIP to this point after giving up five runs off eight hits while striking out six over five innings in a loss to the Angels on Saturday. 

Note that Junis has been particularly horrible at home as well with a ballooned 7.71 ERA.

I’ll point out that Toronto is 30-25 (+1.2 units) this year against right-handed starters this season, while KC is 8-11 (-1.8 units) against southpaws. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Blue Jays.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST).

Jamie Garcia has looked brilliant at times this year and pretty pedestrian in others. He’s been sharp at home all year though. Matt Cain for the most part has been a disaster for the Giants and he’s been particularly inept on the road. 

All signs point to a blowout for the home side in my opinion, as I expect to see it build off its extra-innings victory last night.

Cain (3-6, 4.99 ERA) has a poor 1.69 WHIP and is 0-4 with a massive 7.46 ERA away from friendly confines this season. 

Garcia (2-5, 3.69) was blasted for six runs in his last start, but previous to that had given up just six earned runs over a dominant six-game stretch (note that he owns a respectable 3.63 ERA in Atlanta thus far as well).

Additionally, note that San Francisco is just 6-16 (-10.6 units) this season on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 to -125, while ATL is 4-2 (+1.4 units) as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (7:10 EST).

I like the defending champs to bounce back after yesterdays loss at home and take advantage of what I think to be a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The Cubs hand the ball to Jake Arrieta (6-5, 4.64 ERA) who gave up three runs (just two earned) off four hits while striking out seven over five innings in a loss to the Pirates on Saturday. 

Arrieta is clearly not the same pitcher as he was in 2014, but all of his peripherals this year point to better times ahead, as his 3.82 xFIP and 79/23 K/W in 73 frames are both excellent.

The home side counters with Jeff Locke (0-2, 4.58 ERA) who also comes in off an outing to forget, giving up three runs off five hits and one walk across four innings on Saturday against the Marlins. 

Locke has now failed to reach the sixth inning in any of his starts this year and it won’t get any easier facing Chicago as the Cubs are ranked second against southpaws with a .343 wOBA vs. lefties.

No need to overthink this one in my opinion. I like Arrieta to get back on track and get the better of his volatile counterpart. Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Milwaukee Brewers (2:10 EST).

I think these starting pitchers are a “wash,” but give the big nod to the Brewers at the plate in this one.

The visitors hand the ball to Ivan Nova (7-4, 2.91 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits and two walks while striking out six over seven innings in a victory over the Cubs on Saturday. While his 1.02 WHIP and 2.91 ERA are fantastic, it may come as a surprise to learn that Nova’s 13.7 percent strikeout rate ranks 79th out of 84 qualified MLB starters. 

The home side counters with Chase Anderson (5-2, 2.92) who gave up three runs off five hits while striking out six over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision against San Diego on Saturday. Anderson has now allowed just four runs over his last five starts combined (34.2 innings). To go along with his respectable 2.92 ERA, Anderson also sports a tiny 1.15 WHIP and 8.3 K/9 ratio.

As noted off the top, these pitchers are very evenly matched. I’ll point out though that Pittsburgh is a poor 25-27 (-1.1 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Milwaukee is 30-26 (+9.3 units) in the same position.

I like Anderson to match Nova and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the hard-hitting home side. Play on Milwaukee.

Good luck…Larry

y 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Seattle Mariners (10:10 EST).

I like the Mariners to build off last night’s win and to take advantage of the volatie Justin Verlander.

Verlander (4-4, 4.50 ERA) comes in off a decent outing against Tampa Bay on Thursday, giving up two runs off six hits with five walks while striking out six over seven innings. 

Verlander has been “lights out” at home this year, holding the opposition to just nine earned runs over 37 frames of work. But he’s been a disaster on the road, so far posting a ballooned 7.22 ERA. 

The home side counters with flame-thrower James Paxton (5-2, 3.23) who comes in off his worst start of the season, giving up seven runs off seven hits and three walks while striking out four over 3.2 innings. 

Paxton’s early season numbers were clearly unsustainable, but I don’t think there’s any need to hit the panic button. Note that he’s still an elite 4-1 with a tiny 2.08 ERA at home this year.

I’ll point out as well that Detroit is a poor 9-14 (-5.1 units) this season when on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 to -125, while Seattle is 10-4 (+4.4 units) this year as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mariners.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Oakland A’s (10:05 EST).

I think Sean Manaea and the home side offer great value in this spot.

The Astros hand the ball to Mike Fiers (4-2, 4.00 ERA) who has looked brilliant at times this year and pretty poor in others. He comes in off a gem against the Red Sox on Friday, giving up one run off five hits over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision.

Fiers has been the beneficiary of ample support this year as his 3-0, 5.40 ERA road record would indicate. 

Manaea (6-3, 4.01) also comes in off a no-decision in his last outing, giving up five runs off eight hits while striking out seven in what turned out to be an eventual 7-6 win over the Yankees on Friday. Despite the five runs given up, Manaea was sharp overall, posting 17 swinging strikes among his 107 pitches, also inducing 11 groundballs. 

Manaea had won five starts in a row previous to that. Note that he’s 3-0 with a 3.97 ERA at home this year.

I’ll point out as well that Houston is a money-burning 9-9 (-3.8 units) this year against southpaws, while Oakland is 22-14 (+8.7 units) this season in front of the home town crowd.

I like Manaea to outduel his volatile counterpart. Play on the A’s.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Washignton Nationals (12:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismtach than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to ace Max Scherzer (8-4, 2.26 ERA) who comes into this one off a gem against the Mets on Friday, allowing one run off four hits and two walks in a 7-2 victory. 

Scherzer has now posted double-digit strikeouts in five straight starts and has 12 quality starts out of his 14 outings overall. Note that Scherzer has been at his absolute best on the road as well, 6-1 with a 1.84 ERA so far.

The home side counters with Dan Straily (5-4, 3.58) who comes in off a strong outing against Atlanta on Friday, going six innings and stirking out eight while giving up no runs. Previous to that though he was coming off his worst start of the year. For the most part Straily has been solid this season, but his periperhals suggest rockier times are ahead.

Meanwhile Scherzer continues to improve as the season wares on. I’m banking on Scherzer to continue his strong play on the road, lay the price.

Good luck…Larry