8* MONEY MONDAY PLAY on the Red Sox.

I like Martin Perez (0-2, 4.42 ERA) and the Red Sox here over Jorge Lopez (1-3, 6.49) and the Orioles.

Lopez gave up one run over 4.2 innings in a no-decision to the Mariners in his last outing. Lopez has struggled to go deep into games, which doesn't bode well here facing this dangerous Red Sox line-up and going up against the veteran Perez. 

Perez has to be feeling confiden today, as his team has already taken the first three games of this series. Perez is nothing to write home about, but his 5.26 ERA and 4-6 record vs. Baltimore is a whole lot better than Lopez's 0-1, 12.60 ERA in three appearances vs. Boston's record.

The Orioles offense has gone cold, and I like Perez to take advantage.

Lay the price, the play is Boston.

Good luck, Larry

10* PERFECT STORM on the Reds.

Tyler Mahle (1-1, 3.23 ERA), takes the hill for Cincinnati in the opener of this series, while Pittsburgh counters with the volatile Mitch Keller (2-3, 6.29). 

Keller actually comes in off a gem vs. the Padres in his last outing, going 5.2 scoreless. 

While Keller is 1-1 with a 3.41 ERA on the road, he's 1-2 with a 10.59 ERA at home.

Mahle had his last start postponed due to rain. He gave up six runs over six innings, while striking out six in a no-decision to the Cubs in is last outing. Overall he's been extremely solid, especially on the road where he has a tiny 1.93 ERA.

The Bucs broke a lengthy slide yesterday, but they're still just 1-8 in their last nine vs. a right-handed starter.

Cincinnati is 14-6 in its last 20 vs. the NL Central.

I'm laying the chalk here, but expecting a blowout. The play is the Reds.

Good luck, Larry

My MLB 9* ESPN Game of the Month is on the Phi Phillies at 7:08 ET.

The Philadelphia Phillies entered the 2021 season having NOT made the postseason in the previous NINE years. The Phillies won their first four games of the 2021 season but were just 13-15 as the current week dawned this past Monday. The Phillies swept a four-game home series with the Brewers (Mon-Thu) and then crushed the Braves 12-2 Friday night in Atlanta. However, the Braves rallied for FOUR runs in the 12th inning for a stunning 8-7 win last night. Atlanta opened the 2021 season looking for a FOURTH consecutive NL East title (last season led the Dodgers 3-1 in the NLCS before losing THREE in a row) but the Braves opened the season 0-4. They climbed back to .500 at 12-12 but face the Phillies in the final game of this series Sunday night just 16-17.

A pair of hot pitchers will be on the mound Sunday night on ESPN, as Philadelphia ace Aaron Nola (3-1, 2.89 ERA) will be opposed by Atlanta's Huascar Ynoa (3-1, 2.36 ERA). Nola has made seven starts this season with Philly going 5-2. He has an excellent 0.98 WHIP and .218 BAA to go along with his 2.89 ERA. He's familiar with the Braves, having made 21 starts against them (he's 11-6 with a 3.02 ERA / team is 13-8). Ynoa began the current season with just 11 major league appearances (five starts) and a 7.30 ERA. However, he's been a MUCH different pitcher in 2021. He's made seven appearances (six starts), going 3-1 (team is 4-2) with 2.36 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and .187 BAA.

Ynoa's won his last three starts (0.98 ERA) but I don't think he's the equal of Nola, at least not yet. The Braves pulled off a 'miracle' last night and I don't expect a repeat. Phillies take the "rubber match" of the series, as they battle the Mets for first place in the NL East, which looks similar to the NFL's NFC East in 2020. 

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Division Game of the Month (AL Central) is on the Chi White Sox at 7:10 ET.

The Chicago White Sox made the playoffs for the first time since 2008 in 2020, ending a run of SEVEN consecutive losing seasons by going 35-25. The 2021 version is improved from last season and expectations entering the current season were high. The KC Royals made back-to-back World Series appearances in 2014 (lost Game 7 to the Giants) and in 2015 (beat the Mets 4-1) but entered 2021 off five straight non-winning seasons. KC lost 194 games in 2018, 103 games in 2019 and then went 26-34 in 2020 (on pace of 93 losses in a 162-game schedule).KC lost 104 games in 2018, 103 games in 2019 and then went 26-34 in 2020 (on pace of 93 losses in a 162-game schedule).Not much was expected of the Royals in 2020.

The White Sox and Royals are playing a three-game series this weekend in Kansas City and Chicago won Friday's game 3-0. Combined with the Cleveland Indians' loss to the Cincinnati Reds, the White Sox moved into first place in the American League Central at 17-13. As for the Royals, after an 11-3 win on May 1, they were 16-9 and sat atop the AL Central. However, the Royals take the field Saturday having lost SIX in a row. The White Sox will send veteran Lance Lynn (2-1, 1.82 ERA) to the mound on Saturday, after spending 15 days on the IL. KC counters with left-hander Daniel Lynch (0-0, 5.79 ERA). 

Lynch is making just his second career. He took the mound this past Monday and lasted 4.1 innings in an 8-6 loss to Cleveland. He did not get a decision, allowing four hits, four walks and three ERs. The 33-year-old Lynn was a workhorse last season for Texas, leading the majors in starts (13) and innings pitched (84). Many will remember him as an integral part of a St Louis rotation when he won 71 games over a five-year stretch from 2012-17 (he missed all of 2016 with an injury). Lynn may be just 2-2 in his four starts this season for Chicago but he owns a 1.82 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and opponents have batted just .215 against him. In 10 career starts against KC, he's 5-2 with a 3.73 ERA (his teams are 8-2).

Lynn vs Lynch is a mismatch plus the fact that Lynch is a lefty clinches the paly. Chicago was 14-0 against left-handed starters in 2020 (averaging 7.1 RPG) and has continued that success in 2021, going 5-1 while averaging 7.8 RPG. That's 19-1 or a 95% winning rate.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* IL Game of the Year is on the Cle Indians at 6:10 ET.

The Cleveland Indians won the AL Central title from 2016-18 but missed the playoffs in 2019, despite 93 wins. Cleveland was back in the postseason last year (35-25) but was eliminated by the Yankees in the wild card round, Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds ended a six-year postseason drought last season by going 31-29 to earn a wild card spot in the expanded playoffs but were also eliminated right away by Atlanta when the Reds were held scoreless over two games (22 innings). These two Ohio rivals met back in Cincinnati (Apr 16-18) for a three-game series with the Reds taking two of the three. That came as somewhat of a surprise, as the Reds had totaled just 27 runs, hit .196 as a team and struck out 121 times while losing 10 of their last 12 games with the Indians (since July 2018). The teams opened a three-game series in Cleveland last night and Wade Miley pitched the 17th no-hitter in Cincinnati Reds' history, as Cincy's 3-0 win got them to .500 on the season (15-15), while the Indians fell to 17-14.

Luis Castillo (1-3, 6.07 ERA) will take the mound in Game 2 of the series and the team's Opening Day starter has quite an act to follow. The Reds' pitching staff has thrown back-to-back shutouts, having won 1-0 in 10 innings on Thursday at home over the White Sox. The Cleveland Indians will counter with Aaron Civale (4-0, 3.20 ERA). Castillo was BRUTAL in the team's Opening Day loss, lasting just 3.1 innings while allowing 10 runs (eight earned). He rebounded in his next start (seven scoreless innings in an 11-4 home win over Pittsburgh) but in four starts since, he's 0-2 (team is 0-4) with a 5.59 ERA. As for Civale, he's 4-0 in six starts (Cleveland is 5-1) and in just this third season, is looking for a career-high FIFTH win. Civale totaled just SEVEN wins over 22 career starts spanning the 2019 and 2020 seasons.

This sets up as a "great spot" for the Indians. Cleveland had won FIVE in a row and nine of 11 before getting no-hit by Miley. Cleveland had totaled 29 runs during its five-game winning streak (5.8 RPG) and the Cleveland bats have given Civale a run-support average of SEVEN in his first six starts.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the NY Yankees at 1:05 ET.

The Washington Nationals followed the franchise's first-ever World Series win in 2019 with a 26-34 record in 2020, finishing in last-place in the NL East. The Nats are again in last-place in the NL East at 13-15 but the good news is the division is MLB's weakest. No team had a winning record to open the current week and the Nats are just 2 1/2-games out of first place. The Phillies have won FIVE in a row to take over the top spot at 18-15. The NY Yankees made the postseason for the fourth straight time in 2020 but ONLY because of the expanded playoff field. They swept the Indians in the wild card round (2-0) but lost to the Rays in a deciding Game 5 in the ALDS. The Yankees are currently 16-16, fourth of five AL East teams.

Washington won the opener of this three-game series 11-4 on Friday, sparked by six-run eighth inning (included three errors by New York and a three-run HR by the Nats' Josh Harrison. Saturday's pitching matchup will feature three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer (2-2, 2.54 ERA) up against two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber (2-2, 3.03 ERA), Scherzer won Cy Young's 2013, 2016 and 2017 but didn't get his first win of 2021 until his fourth start, He beat the Cards 1-0 on April 21 (6 IP / 9-1 KW ratio) but then gave up seven runs (five earned) in a 9-5 loss at Toronto. However, this past Sunday, he threw his 12th career complete game, allowing a run on five hits in a 3-1 home win over the Miami Marlins (9-0 KW ratio).

Kluber won 18 games three times and 20 games once, in a five-year stretch between 2014-18 for Cleveland. He won two Cy Young awards in that span, in 2014 and 2018 (20-7). However, he fractured his right arm after being hit by a line drive during a game against the Miami Marlins on May 1, 2019 and his season ended after just seven starts. Cleveland traded Kluber to the Texas Rangers on July 26, 2020, Kluber made his Rangers debut but lasted just 1 inning after experiencing shoulder tightness. New York signed Kluber to a one-year $11 million contract on January 27, 2021. Kluber got off to a slow start to 2021 (6.10 ERA in his first three starts), but he has improved upon his previous performances in each of his last three outings, lowering his ERA more than three runs in the process. He's thrown 19.1 innings in his last three outings, allowing just three ERs (1.40 ERA). He's earned wins in his last two starts, including allowing two hits over eight scoreless innings to help the Yankees to a 2-0 victory over the Detroit Tigers this past Sunday.

The Yankees conclude a nine-game homestand this weekend and after opening with FIVE straight wins, have lost their last two. The team's bullpen and defense fell apart Friday but  with "no rest for the weary" (early start on Saturday), I'll back them here against the Nats. Washington is coming off an 11-run outburst but still ranks just 27th in scoring (3.71 RPG).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "Signature" 37-Club Play is on the SF Giants at 9:45 ET.

The San Diego Padres ended a 13-year postseason drought in 2020 by going 37-23. The Padres won their wild card series but got swept 3-0 in the NLDS by the Dodgers As for the Giants, they made a run at the expanded playoffs in 2020 but fell short at 29-31. The Padres have really improved their roster the last couple of years and almost all felt that they would challenge the Dodgers for the 2021 West title (LA has won EIGHT straight division titles). As for the Giants, not much was expected.

However, just a little over 30 games into the 2021 season, the 18-13 Giants sit atop the NL West with the 18-14 Padres just a half-game back. BOTH teams have moved past the Dodgers, who have lost 13 of 17 after a 13-2 starts to find themselves at 17-15. The Padres and Giants have split their first six meetings of 2021, with ALL games being played in San Diego. The first contest of this three-game series from Oracle Park is Friday, featuring Blake Snell (1-0, 3.51 ERA) of the Padres and Anthony DeSclafani (2-1, 2.00 ERA) of the Giants.

Snell was traded Snell to the San Diego Padres last December. after years with Tampa Bay. He won the Cy Young back in 2018  but most knew he was "done with the Rays" after he was pulled by manager Kevin Cash in the 6th inning after pitching a shutout with two hits and nine strikeouts. in Game 6 with the Rays leading 1–0 with one out. The Dodgers then scored two runs in that inning and would go on to win the game 3–1 and the World Series. Snell makes his seventh start of the season (team is 3-3), after picking up his first win of the season last Saturday at home over the Giants in San Diego. He held the Giants to two runs (one earned) on five hits and three walks with six strikeouts in five innings. 

DeSclafani suffered his only loss of the current season in that game, giving up three runs on three hits and two walks with three strikeouts in six innings. DeSclafani began his career with Miami in 2014 but spent the last five season with Cincy. He had a decent 2019 season (9-9 with a 3.89 ERA in 31 starts) but the 2020 season was a 'disaster' (7.2 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in nine appearances, including seven starts). The Giants signed DeSclafani to a one-year contract worth $6 million on December 16, 2020, He's delivered "big time" so far, with a 2.00 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and .189 BAA. The team is just 3-3 in his starts but DON'T blame DeSclafani. 

DeSclafani has made just TWO home starts this season and has pitched 15 scoreless innings, allowing only nine hits with a 17-2 KW ratio. He's made six career starts vs San Diego, posting a 2.57 ERA and 0.97 WHIP (teams are 4-2). in this quick "re-hook" from Saturday, DeSclafani and the Giants are the play, especially as a home dog!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Was Nationals at 4:05 ET.

Atlanta opened the 2021 season looking for a FOURTH consecutive NL East title (last season led the Dodgers 3-1 in the NLCS before losing THREE in a row) but the Braves opened the season 0-4. They climbed back to .500 at 12-12 but entered this week's three-game series in Washington against the Nationals on a four-game losing streak. Washington followed the franchise's first-ever World Series win in 2019 with a 26-34 record in 2020, finishing in last-place in the NL East. The Nats lost their first four games to COVID and then opened 1-5 once they finally got on the field. However, in contrast to the Braves, Washington welcomed Atlanta to Nationals Park on a four-game winning streak that evened its record at 12-12.

However, the Braves have won the first two contests (6-1 and 5-3). Both teams play in the NL East, where only the Phillies own a winning record (just barely, at 16-15). The pitching matchup features a battle of lefties, as the Braves will send Drew Smyly (0-2, 8.05 ERA), while the Nats turn to veteran Jon Lester (0-0, 0.00 ERA). Smyly is no more than a journeyman and has given up five ERs in each of his last three starts. The Braves are 0-4 in his four starts in 2021 (8.05 ERA and 1.53 WHIP). Lester's season was delayed as part of the Nationals' COVID-19 outbreak but tossed five scoreless innings on five hits in a no-decision against the Marlins this past Friday. Unlike Smyly, Lester is FAR from a journeyman. He's made 424 career starts, posting a 193-111 career record with a 3.59 ERA.

Lester is a three-time World Series champion (2007, 2013 and 2016) and was the MVP of the NLCS in 2016. In 11 career starts vs the Braves, his teams have gone 8-3 (he's 7-2 with a 2.30 ERA). I'll back the Nats to avoid the dreaded home sweep!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Oak A's at 3:37 ET.

MLB 2020's expanded playoff field allowed the 32-28 Blue Jays to snap a three-year playoff drought but the Jays were eliminated 2-0 (lost 3-1 and 8-2) quickly by the Rays. Toronto has had to play its 'home games' at the teams spring training facility in Dunedin, Fl and  currently sits at 15-14 as the Jays conclude this four-game series in Oakland. The A's began the current season 0-6 and after splitting their next two games, ripped off 13 consecutive wins to reach 14-7. The A's won the first two games of this four-game set with Toronto, before falling 9-4 on Wednesday. The A's are currently 19-13 (just 5-6 their last 11) but own MLB's best record at 19-13.

The Blue Jays get their ace back on the mound when they try to gain a split of a four-game series against the Oakland Athletics on Thursday afternoon. Hyun Jin Ryu (1-2, 2.60 ERA) is scheduled to come off the injured list and get the start. He went on the IL on April 26 with a glute strain. This will be his sixth start of the season (team is 3-2), after he had a terrific first season with Toronto in 2020. He was 5-2 with a 2.69 ERA in 12 starts (Jays were 9-3).

Mike Fiers (0-1, 4.50 ERA) started the season on the 10-day injured list with a lumbar strain. He was reinstated on April 26 and made his first start of 2021 last Friday, a 3-2 home loss to Baltimore. He allowed three runs, six hits and two walks in six innings. However, here's the bottom line. Since joining Oakland in August of 2018 (from Detroit), Fiers has made 55 regular season starts for the A's, who have gone 39-16 (.709) in those contests! That includes the team going 23-5 (.821) in his 28 home starts! What's more, the A's were 11-3 vs left-handers last season and have opened 9-3 against them in 2020. Ryu is a tough opponent but I'm 'barking' with this home dog.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Getaway Day Game of the Month (NL) is on the Mil Brewers at 1:05 ET.

The Philadelphia Phillies entered the 2021 season having NOT made the postseason in the previous NINE years. The Phillies won their first four games but opened a four-game home series with the Brewers just 13-15 on the season. However, the Phillies have won each of the first three contests and are now 16-15, which finds them atop of the NL East (all other teams are sub-.500). The Brewers have made the playoffs in each of the last three seasons but with FOUR straight losses, have fallen to 17-14 and one game back of The St Louis Cardinals in the NL Central.

Milwaukee looked to avoid the series sweep and a FIFTH straight loss with Brandon Woodruff (2-0, 1.80 ERA) on the mound. The Phillies will counter with Zack Wheeler (2-2, 3.49 ERA). Woodruff allowed three ERs on Opening Day but has recorded five consecutive quality starts. He's pitched six-plus innings in each one with a 1.16 ERA and a 35-7 KW ratio. Zach Wheeler beat Atlanta 4-0 in his first start of 2021, allowing one hit over seven innings with a 10-0 KW ratio. However, he owns a 4.26 ERA over his last four starts, with the Phillies losing FOUR of the five.

The Phillies have appeared in seven straight one-run games and that wears on a team. Plus, I love Woodruff over Wheeler.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Pitching Mismatch is on the Mil Brewers at 7:05 ET.

The Philadelphia Phillies entered the 2021 season having NOT made the postseason in the previous NINE years. The Phillies won their first four games of the current season but their back-to-back wins over the Brewers Monday and Tuesday only got the team back to .500 at 15-15. The "good news" for the Phils is that they play in the NL East, where they are the ONLY team in the division to not own a losing record. The Brewers have made the playoffs in each of the last three seasons but last night's loss was their THIRD in a row and at 17-13, have fallen a half-game back of the 17-12 StL Cardinals in the NL Central.

The two teams continue their four-game series Wednesday night with Freddy Peralta (3-0, 2.25 ERA) taking the mound for the Brewers and Chase Anderson (1-3, 5.40 ERA) for the Phillies. This marks Peralta's fourth season with Milwaukee and after making 15 appearances but just ONE start for them in 202, he's FIVE straight starts after making a two-inning relief appearance on Opening Day. He owns an excellent 1.00 WHIP to go along with his 2.25 ERA this season plus has held opposing batters to a .146 BAA. He has  a 39-11 KW ratio in his five starts with Milwaukee winning FOUR of the five.

Anderson spent time with the Brewers and from 2017-2019 owned a 29-16 record. He's coming off a good start on April 30, going five innings and allowing just one ER in Philly's 2-1 home win over the Mets. However, over his first four starts of 2021, he allowed 12 ERs over a modest 16.2 innings (6.48 ERA), as the Brewers went 0-4 with Anderson taking the loss in three of the games. Pitching edge to Milwaukee in this one, as the Brewers snap their three-game slide and the Phillies fall back under .500.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Cin Reds at 6:40 ET.

The Chicago White Sox went 35-25 in 2020, ending an 11-year postseason drought, while the Cincinnati Reds went 31-19 and also indeed a six-year postseason drought of their own. Neither team made it out of the wild card round and open a brief two-game series Tuesday in Cincinnati. The White Sox are 15-13 to start the current season and the Reds check in at 13-14. Both teams were off on Monday with the White Sox losing the rubber match of their three-game home series 5-0 to the Indians on Sunday, while the Reds won their rubber match of a three-game home series with the Cubs 13-12 in 10 innings (Reds had five HRs). More in a bit.

Taking the mound tonight will be Chicago's Dylan Cease (1-0, 2.96 ERA) and Cincy's Jeff Hoffman (2-1, 3.33 ERA). Cease has shown glimpses of promise during his two-plus seasons in the majors and showed was at his VERY best this past Thursday during an 11-0 Chicago win rout in the nightcap of a seven-inning, doubleheader sweep of the Tigers. Cease allowed just three hits with nine strikeouts and no walks in matching a career high with those seven completed innings. However, let me point out that he had not gotten through the fifth inning in any of his previous FOUR starts in 2021.

Hoffman spent his first five seasons with Colorado (68 appearances / 38 starts), going 10-16 with a 6.39 ERA but he' started very well in 2021 (see above). In particular, he is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in three home starts in 2021. The Reds 'turned a corner' last season and I feel as if Hoffmann can become a solid member of the rotation now that he's away from Coors Field.

'Digging deeper' into this contest and I find that the White Sox went 14-0 (7.1 RPG) against left-handed starters in 2020 and have so far gone 5-1 (7.8 RPG) against lefties in 2021. However, that means Chicago is just 10-11 vs righties in 2021, averaging 4.1 RPG (that's 3 1/2 runs per game LESS!). As noted above, the Reds slugged five HRs and put up 13 runs Sunday at home. Cincy may be just a modest 9-6 at home but the Reds are averaging a whopping 7.8 RPG at home. At basically pick'em, the Reds are very UNDERVALUED in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the NY Yankees at 7:05 ET.

The Houston Astros won 100-plus each season from 2017-2019 (311-175, .649), going to two World Series and winning one (2017). However, the Astros were exposed before the start of the 2020 season with a "sign-stealing" scandal that cost the team's GM and manager their jobs. Of course, COVID delayed the start of last season until late July and with a shortened 60-game schedule and no fans, the scandal seemed to fade into the background behind greater concern. The Astros fell to 29-31 in 2020 but snuck into the expanded playoff field. The Astros then went on a surge that didn't end until they lost Game 7 of the ALCS to the Rays The Yankees went 33-27 last season and if not for the expanded playoff field, would have missed the postseason. New York swept Cleveland 2-0 in the wild card round but then lost Game 5 of the ALDS to the Rays.

The Yankees were on the "other side" of Houston's sign-stealing shenanigans in 2017, with the Astros continuing on to win their first World Series by beating the Los Angeles Dodgers. The teams were set to meet in New York in September, but the COVID-19 pandemic wiped away the original schedule and the clubs never met. This will be the teams' first meeting since that 2017 World Series. Both Houston and New York have gone 8-3 in their last 11 games, with the 15-13 Astros finding themselves second in the NL West (two games back of the A's) and the Yankees are 14-14 (2 1/2-games back of the Red Sox in the AL East / 4th of five teams).

The starting pitching matchup is Zack Greinke (2-1, 3.44 ERA) for Houston and Domingo German (2-2, 4.05 ERA). The Astros are 5-1 in Greinke's six starts in 2021 but he's coming off his shortest outing of the season last Wednesday when he took a no-decision against the Seattle Mariners, allowing four runs on four hits in four innings. He has a 4.56 ER in his last four starts and is 4-5 with a 4.38 ERA in 14 career starts vs the Yankees (teams are 6-8).

German was 18-4 for the Yankees when he was placed on administrative leave by MLB pending an investigation of suspected domestic violence on September 19, 2019. It was confirmed on Sep 25 that he would not be eligible to participate in any baseball action for the remainder of 2019, including the postseason, German made just ONE start in 2020. German. He takes the mound for the fifth time in 20212 tonight. He lost his first two outings (12 hits and seven ERs allowed in seven innings for 9.00 ERA) but  he's 2-0 in his last two starts, allowing just two ERs over 13 innings for a 1.38 ERA. In fact, he enters Tuesday with a 12-inning scoreless streak. 

I'm not saying German is the same pitcher who had a MLB-best .818 winning percentage back in 2019 but his last two starts seem to point to him rounding back into form. Expect more than a few 'Bronx Cheers' from the Yankee-faithful (limited capacity) and for German to win his individual 'battle' vs Greinke.

Good luck...Larry 

My 10* Pitching Mismatch is on the StL Cardinals at 7:45 ET.

Note: This is an "action" play. See below for more details.

The NY Mets surprised all by reaching the 2015 World Series (ended an eight-season playoff drought) but lost 4-1 to the Royals. The Mets made one-game wild card appearance in the 2016 postseason but opened the 2021 season off four straight non-playoff seasons, including going just 26-34 in 2020. The Mets lost Friday at Philadelphia but earned one-run wins Saturday and Sunday to even their record at 11-11. The 2021 NL East resembles the NFC East from the NFL's most recent season (Washington won the division with a 7-9 record), so New York's 11-11 record puts them atop the division (Nats are 12-12). New York stays on the road the next four days, opening a series with the Cards Monday night in St Louis.

The Cardinals were kept off the field from July 30 through August 14 last season but the Cards somehow managed to earn a wild card spot with a 30-28 record. It was the team's SEVENTH postseason appearance over the previous 10 years. St Louis was just 8-10 through April 21 but a weekend sweep of the Pirates in St Louis gives the Cards a four-game winning streak with EIGHT wins in their last 10 games. St Louis is 16-12, one game back of the first-place Brewers in the NL Central.

Mets manager Luis Rojas decided to give staff ace Jacob deGrom an extra day between starts, so deGrom has been pushed back to Tuesday. Lefty Joey Lucchesi (0-1, 6.75 ERA) has been called up from the taxi squad and is expected to start. However, Sean Reid-Foley and/or Robert Gsellman could serve as the "opener," if Rojas decides to go that route. Either way, the Cards own a HUGE "pitching mismatch" here, as the Cards will send veteran Adam Wainwright. Wainwright began as a reliever but has had a memorable career as a starter with the Cards. From 2009-14 (missed the 2011 season with an injury) he finished in the top-three of Cy Young voting FOUR times, with two 19-win seasons and two 20-win seasons.

Looking at Wainwright's 0-3 record with a 4.08 ERA in 2021 does NOT tell the whole story. Wainwright lasted just 2.2 innings (allowed six ERs) in his 2021 debut but over his last four starts, he's allowed just seven ERs over 26 innings (2.42 ERA). That includes him allowing just three runs on 11 hits over 16 innings of his last two starts,, striking out 18 and walking just one. Wainwright spent the weekend in COVID-19 protocol due to contact tracing but rejoins the active roster Monday and is ready to go, with some extra rest. Regardless of who starts for the Mets, Wainwright and the Cards are the play.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Atl Braves at 1:07 ET.

Note: Action play. Toronto says Stripling will start but I'm on Atlanta regardless.

The Toronto Blue Jays' temporary home site (through at least May 24) because of Canada's COVID-19 restrictions is Dunedin, Fla, the Blue Jays' spring-training facility. Toronto is 6-4 'at home' in 2021, after taking the first two contests of this three-game series with Braves (won 13-5 on Friday and 6-5 Saturday in walk-off fashion in the 10th inning). Atlanta opened the 2021 season looking for a FOURTH NL East title (last season led the Dodgers 3-1 in the NLCS before losing THREE in a row) but the Braves opened the season 0-4, climbed back to .500 at 12-12 but have now lost THREE in row (currently 12-15).

Sunday's series finale features Atlanta's Ian Anderson (2-0, 2.48 ERA), while Toronto hands the ball to Ross Stripling (0-1, 7.56 ERA), who returns from a forearm injury that has had him sidelined since early April. Anderson made six starts as a rookie in 2020 and went 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA, striking out 41 and walking only 14 in 32.1 innings (1.08 WHIP). He then made four playoff starts, allowing just two ERs on 11 hits over 18.2 innings (0.96 ERA) with a KW ratio of 24-10 (1.13 WHIP) and an opponent's BA of average .172. Anderson's first start of 2021 went well (5 IP / 1 ER / 7-1 KW ratio in a no-decision) but he struggled over his next two (10.1 IP / 7 ERs / 6.10 ERA). However, the Braves won each of those two starts. He's pitched 13.2 scoreless innings in winning his last two starts (just five hits) and takes the mound with the Braves having won his last four.

Stripling came to Toronto in a 2020 trade with the Dodgers. He made five appearances with the Jays last season, going 0-2 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. He made two April starts in 2021, going 0-1 (team was 0-2) with a 7.56 ERA and 1.92 WHIP. How healthy is he here? Who knows but what we do know is that in seven appearances (four starts) since joining Toronto, he's pitched 24 innings and allowed 18 ERs (6.75 ERA). Backing the Braves and Anderson in this one is an easy decision.

Good luck..Larry

My 9* Pitching Mismatch is on the StL Cards at 6:35 ET.

The Pittsburgh Pirates began the season losing their first two series but visited St Louis last night having gone 4-0-2 in their last six series. However, recent history has NOT been kind to the Pirates in St Louis and despite getting NINE walks from StL pitchers Friday night, lost 7-3. Friday's game marked the first of 19 meetings between the clubs this season and the St Louis win gave the Cards a 13-2 record at PNC Park in Pittsburgh since the beginning of the 2019 season.

It's hard to see much of a change on Saturday, with St Louis sending Jack Flaherty (4-0, 3.18 ERA) to the mound to face Trevor Cahill (1-2, 7.11 ERA). The Cards have won all FIVE of Flaherty's starts to open 2021 and while he surely won't 'run the table,' but Flaherty is coming off a season-best seven-inning outing last Sunday against Cincinnati, allowing just  one run on three hits with a 6-0 KW ratio of a win.

Cahill's career began way back in 2009, when he went 10-13 for the A's. He followed with an 18-8 (2.97) record in 2010, then won 12 and 13 games the next two seasons. However, since 2013 he's gone just 33-49, including an abysmal start to the 2021 season. He owns a 7.11 ERA and 1.42 WHIP through four starts, while opponents are batting .289 against him. In comparison, opponents are batting .190 vs Flaherty in 2021 

I noted the Cards' recent domination of Pittsburgh at PNC Park above but let me get back to Flaherty vs the Pirates. He's 6-1 with a 1.89 ERA in nine career starts (team is 7-2)vs Pittsburgh, posting a 0.94 WHIP with a KW ratio of 58-13 in 57 innings pitched. As for Cahill, he's 1-3 with a 4.02 ERA in 14 career appearances, including SIX starts (0-2 with a 5.34 ERA and 1.55 WHIP / teams are 2-4 in the starts). This is a clear Pitching Mismatch

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL East) is on the Phi Phillies at 6:05 ET.

Friday 'closed the door' on MLB's first month and as May dawns, the NL East resembles the NFC East from the NFL's most recent season (Washington won the division with a 7-9 record. The Mets and Phillies opened a three-game series last night in Philadelphia, with the Phillies eking out a 2-1. That result evened Philadelphia's record at 13-13, while the Mets' suffered a third straight loss to fall to 9-11. The Atlanta Braves (three-time defending NL East champs) opened the season 0-4 and are currently just 12-14, while the Nats are 10-12 and the Marlins 11-14. Bottom line is, the Phillies lead the division with their .500 record. 

Taking the mound for Saturday's game will be New York's Taijuan Walker (1-1, 2.14 ERA) and Philadelphia's Zack Wheeler (2-2, 3.13 ERA). Walker made 82 starts from 2015-107, going 28-28. However, he was limited to just 15 starts from 2018-20, with his Tommy John surgery being the main culprit to his limited action. The Mets signed him to a two-year contract in February and he picked up his first win as a Met in his last outing. Walker threw seven shutout innings in a 4-0 win over the Washington Nationals this past Sunday and I should note that New York has won three of his four starts to open 2012.

Zack Wheeler began his career with the Mets but never fulfilled his promise. He was the prized free-agent signee for Philadelphia in the offseason prior to 2020 and he finished 4-2 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. The Phils went 6-2 in his first eight stars but were winless in his last three with Wheeler posting a 4.05 ERA. Wheeler threw seven scoreless innings (one hit) in his 2021 debut (10-0 KW ratio), a 4-0 win over the Braves. However, he was 0-2 (team was 0-3) in his next three starts, posting a 5.40 ERA. However, he was sharp in his most recent outing (4/26), winning 2-1 at St Louis (8 IP / 1 hit 1 ER / 9-1 KW ratio).

Wheeler has made four starts against his former team with a 3.71 ERA but also note he's had 19 strikeouts against only two walks. The Mets are just 3-7 on the road this season (outscored 53-30), while the Phillies are a solid 9-4 at home, including taking three of four from the Mets. Wheeler leads the Phils to a win over his former team here, as the Phillies move ONE game over .500.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the Oak A's at 9:40 ET.

MLB's first month of the 2021 season comes to an end on Friday, April 30. Yes, it's early, but this fact is somewhat noteworthy. The ONLY 2020 division winner to currently sit atop its division here in 2021 is the 16-10 Oakland A's of the NL West. VERY noteworthy is the fact that the A's began the current season 0-6 and after splitting their next two games, ripped off 13 consecutive wins! The A's return to Oakland off a 4-3 road trip and open a 10-games homestand, beginning with a three-game weekend series with the Orioles.

The Orioles opened the current season with a three-game sweep of the Red Sox in Fenway but have quickly reminded themselves that they are NOT a very good team. Baltimore arrives in Oakland 11-14, coming off a 25-35 (.417) season in 2020. Actually, that was a HUGE improvement as Baltimore was 54-108 in 2019 and 47-115 in 2018, the worst record in MLB over that two-season span.

The surprising John Means (2-0, 1.50 ERA) will get the ball for Baltimore, while Oakland manager Bob Melvin announced that Mike Fiers will make his 2021 debut on Friday. Fiers missed all of spring training with a back and side injury that required an MRI. The 35-year-old starter was reinstated off the 10-day IL on Monday and was initially placed in the bullpen but the A’s decided it wasn’t a good fit. I agree and will expound further in a bit. First to Means. He had just one appearance in 2018 *3.1 IP) but made 31 in 2019 (27 starts), going 12-11 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. However, he slumped to 2-4 with a 4,53 ERA in 10 starts in 2020, with the Orioles losing EIGHT of his 10 starts. He's been terrific so far through five starts in 2021 (team is just 3-2), with 1.50 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and a .171 BAA. Should we believe our eyes? I'm not sure.

Here's what we DO know. Means is a lefty and after going 11-3 vs left-handed starters in 2020, the A's have opened 6-2 against lefties in 2021, giving them a 17-5 mark (77%!). If that's NOT enough, how about this regarding Fiers? Since joining Oakland in August of 2018 (from Detroit), Fiers has made 54 regular season starts for the A's, who have gone 39-15 (.722) in those contests! That includes the team going 23-4 (.852) in his 27 home starts! Good enough for me.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Division Game of the Month (NL Central) is on the Chi Cubs at 7:10 ET.

The Cincinnati Reds broke a six-year postseason drought in 2020 by earning a wild card berth with a 31-29 record (note: Reds would NOT have qualified for the postseason if NOT for last year's expanded playoff field). Meanwhile, the 34-26 Cubs won the NL Central  in 2020 for the THIRD time in the last six years, while making their FIFTH postseason in that six-year span. The 11-13 Reds welcome the 11-14 Cubs to Cincinnati on Friday, as the two NL Central rivals open a three-game series. The Reds opened the current season 9-5 but 'limp' into this series losers of EIGHT of their last 10. The Cubs haven't been above .500 since they were 4-3 back on the morning of April 9. The Cubs and Reds meet for the first time in 2021 (Cubs won six of 10 vs the Reds in 2020). 

Taking the mound Friday night will be Jake Arrieta (3-2, 2.57 ERA) for the Cubs and Wade Miley (2-2, 2.45 ERA) for the Reds. Arrieta began his career with Baltimore but his trade to Cubs gave his career 'life.' He won a Cy Young award in 2015 (22-6 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.86 WHIP) and went 18-8 in 2016 when the Cubs finally won the World Series. He signed with Philly as a free agent but from 2018-20 but was just 22-23 with a 4.36. He's returned to the Cubs for 2021 and has looked pretty good. He has allowed two ERs or less in FOUR of his five starts, earning a decision in each one. He may be a modest 3-2 but he has a 1.18 WHIP and .214 BAA to go along with his 2.45 ERA.

Wade Miley's first big league season was 2011 and he's had just TWO notable ones. He was 16-11 for Arizona in 2012 and 14-6 for the Astros in 2019. He opened the current season 2-0, pitching 11 scoreless innings. He has then allowed six ERs over 11 innings during his last two starts, losing both with 4.91 ERA. Checking the record books, he's 87-87 in his career with a 4.21 ERA.

The Cubs have been 'stuck in neutral' all season, while after a 6-1 start, the Reds are just 5-12. Cincy has lost FOUR in a row at home (outscored 33-23) and will face Arrieta, who is 7-2 with a 3.03 ARA and 0,93 WHIP in 10 career starts vs the Reds (teams are 7-3). That includes Arrieta going 5-0 with a 2.56 ERA in his last six starts at Cincinnati! Cubs Win! Cubs Win!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Getaway Day Rout is on the Oak A's at 1:10 ET.

The Tampa Bay Rays went 40-20 in 2020 (best record in the AL) and advanced to just the second World Series in franchise history (lost 4-2 to the LA Dodgers). The Oakland A's won the West with a 36-24 record (tied for the AL's second-best) in 2020, earning their first division title in seven years. However, it was Oakland's THIRD straight playoff appearance, as the A's won 97 games in both 2018 and 2019. The Rays have been 'stuck in neutral' so far in 2021, as they are just 13-12 after winning the last two nights against the A's. Oakland opened 0-6 and at 1-7, ripped off 13 straight wins before losing 8-1 at Baltimore on Sunday. The A's edged the Rays 2-1 on Monday but as noted above, have lost 4-3 and 2-0 Tuesday and Wednesday.

The teams cap this four-game series with an afternoon tilt at Tropicana Field with Oakland's Chris Bassitt (2-2, 4.13 ERA) going up against Tampa Bay's Shane McClanahan. Let me start with McClanahan, who will make his major league regular-season debut. McClanahan made history in 2020 when he became the first pitcher to make his major league debut in the playoffs (four appearances last just 4.1 innings). Today, McClanahan will become the first pitcher in major league history to have appeared in a World Series game before making his regular-season debut (note: he pitched the ninth inning of Game 3 against the Dodgers on Oct 3, 2020). He's quite a story but let me move on to Oakland's Chris Bassitt.

Bassitt was Oakland's Opening Day starter in 2021, after going 10-5 (3.81 ERA) in 2018 and 5-2 (2.29 ERA) in 11 starts (A's were 8-3!) of 2020's pandemic-shortened season. Bassitt allowed 13 hits and seven ERs over 11.1 innings (5.56 ERA) in losing both games. However, he's 2-0 over his last three starts (A's are 3-0), posting a 3.18 ERA, while also fashioning a 16-3 KW ratio in his last two starts. Bassitt is in his seventh season and has made just two appearances against the Rays (one start) and owns a 1.86 ERA. I like Bassitt and who really knows about McClanahan? That said, we DO know this. Oakland was 11-3 vs left-handed starters in 2020 and has opened 5-2 against them in 2021.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the SF Giants at 9:45 ET.

Colorado snapped a four-game losing streak in the series against the Giants with a 7-5 win on Tuesday. However, more notably, the Rockies won their FIRST road game of the season on Tuesday night, after opening 0-7! Colorado entered last night's game off a 12-0 loss on Monday and had scored just 11 total runs (1,57 per game) in its 0-7 start. Last night's game was tied 4-4 through nine innings but the Rockies hit back-to-back HRs (first was a two-run shot) to finally get that initial road win. The Giants lost for just the THIRD time in 12 home games and with LA also losing, remain tied atop the NL West with the Dodgers at 15-9 (more in a bit).

The pitching matchup for the rubber match of this three-game series will be  Colorado's German Marquez (1-1, 3.45 ERA) and LA's Alex Wood (2-0, 0.75 ERA). Marquez went 11-7, 14-11 and 12-5 for the Rockies from 2017-19, before going 4-6 with a 3.75 ERA in 13 starts (Rockies were 7-6) in 2020. He has been solid for Colorado so far, as he's not allowed more than three ERs in any of his five starts. He lost 4-0 at San Francisco on April 11 (three ERs allowed in 5.2 innings) and is 4-5 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 11 career starts vs San Francisco (team is 5-6).

Alex Wood began his career with Atlanta back in 2013 and has had just ONE notable season (16-3 with a 2.72 ERA for the Dodgers in 2017). He's struggled with injuries since that time He was part of LA's 2020 World Series champions , appearing in two games vs the Rays, pitching four scoreless innings, However, he signed a one year, $3 million deal with the San Francisco Giants prior to this season. His first start of 2021 didn't come until April 18, when he pitched five scoreless innings against the Marlins. He faced Miami again on April 23, allowing one ER in seven innings. His 2-0 start with an 0.75 ERA, 0.50 WHIP (11-1 KW ratio) and .128 BAA is impressive but it's only two starts. His career record vs Colorado is not good, as he owns a 6.35 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, although his teams are 8-4 in those 12 starts.

I'm NOT making a big deal about his lifetime mark, as this Colorado team is as noted, 1-7 away from home in 2021. As for the Giants in 2021, after finishing 14 games back of the Dodgers in 2020's shortened season, 29 games back of LA in 2019, 18.5 games back in 2018 and 40 games back in 2017, San Francisco is tied with LA at 15-9. The Giants are a 'horse' (team) of a different color in 2021 and take the rubber game of this series tonight.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Was Nationals at 7:07 ET.

Full, detailed analysis Tuesday morning by 7:30 ET.

My 10* Game of the Week is on the StL Cardinals at 7:45 ET.

The StL Cardinals were kept off the field from July 30 through August 14 last season but the Cards somehow managed to earn a wild card spot with a 30-28 record. It was the team's SEVENTH postseason appearance over the previous 10 years. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Phillies ended last season just and have not made the postseason since 2011 (a NINE-year drought). The Phillies opened a seven-game road trip in Colorado this past weekend and lost two of three, giving them a 10-11 record as they visit St Louis for a four-games series beginning Monday night. The Cards welcome the Phillies to St Louis a modest 11-10but on an uptick after sweeping the Red in a three-game home series Friday-Sunday.

Tonight's starting pitchers are Zack Wheeler (1-2, 3.80 ERA) for Philadelphia and Adam Wainwright (0-2, 5.03 ERA for St Louis. Wheeler was the prized free-agent signee for Philadelphia in the offseason prior to 2020 and he finished 4-2 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. The Phils went 6-2 in his first eight stars but were winless in his last three with Wheeler posting a 4.05 ERA. He opened the current season with a 4-0 win over Atlanta (seven scoreless innings, allowing one hit with a 10-0 kW ratio) but he's 0-2 in his last three starts (Phillies are 0-3), with a 5.40 ERA. More bad news is that in three career starts vs the Cards, he owns a 5.87 ERA and 1.83 WHIP.

Wainwright began as a reliever but has had a memorable career as a starter with the Cards. From 2009-14 (he missed the 2011 season with an injury) he finished in the top-3 of Cy Young voting FOUR times, with two 19-win seasons and two 20-win seasons. In contrast to Wheeler, he lasted just 2.2 innings (allowed six ERs) in his 2021 debut but over his last three outings, owns a 2.65 ERA and a 23-5 KW ratio. In 14 career starts vs the Phillies, he's 7-3 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.19 WHIP (Cards are 9-5).

Philadelphia 'limps' into St Louis just 2-7 on the road this season, with its pitching staff allowing 6.5 RPG. There is little reason to expect Wheeler to 'stop the bleeding' off his last three efforts. As for Wainwright, he comes in on a roll (see above) and should continue the recent excellence of a StL rotation that brings a 1.43 ERA over its previous six games into this series. There is a LOT to like about Wainwright and the Cards over Wheeler and the Phillies in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Pitching Mismatch of the Month (AL) is on the Oak A's at 7:10 ET.

The Oakland A's won 97 games in 2018 and 2019 but finished second to the Astros in the AL West but went 36-24 (higher win percentage than in either 2018 or 2019) to win the division by SEVEN games. However, Oakland lost 3-1 to the Astros in the ALDS. The Tampa Bay Rays won 90 and 96 games in 2108 and 2019 and then posted the AL's best record in 2020 (40-20), on its way to the franchise's second-ever World Series appearance. Oakland lost its first six games to start 2021 but at 1-7, reeled off 13 consecutive wins before the streak ended Sunday with an 8-1 loss to the Orioles in Baltimore. The Rays started 2-0 in 2021 but then lost EIGHT of 11. A five-game winning streak followed but after losing two of three at home to Toronto this past weekend, the Rays welcome the 14-8 A's to Tropicana Field for a four-game series at just 11-11. 

Monday's pitching matchup will feature Sean Manaea (2-1, 3.04 ERA) of Oakland and Rich Hill (1-0, 8.82 ERA) of Tampa Bay. Manaea won 12 games for the A's in 2017 and 2018 but missed most of 2019 rehabbing an injury and then came the shortened 2020 season. However, during that two-season span he's 8-3 with a 3.33 ERA. Rich Hill started way back in 2005 and was 17-8 the last three seasons with the Dodgers but has been BRUTAL in his first four starts for the Rays. He's allowed four ERs in EACH of his four starts, posting an 8.82 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and opponents have batted .308 against him.

Yes, Oakland's win streak is over but Oakland's starting pitchers posted a 2.78 ERA and its relievers a 2.53 one in that span. Manaea has looked good so far and in three career starts vs the Rays, owns a 2.70 ERA. As for Hill, he'll face an Oakland lineup which scored just ONE run on Sunday but had averaged 6.2 runs during its 13-game winning streak. Hill's struggled mightily so far in 2021 (see above) and it's hardly good news that in his modest two starts vs the Rays, he has a 7.50 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. Pitching mismatch surely applies.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Pitching Mismatch of the Month is on the Col Rockies at 3:10 ET.

The Philadelphia Phillies have not made the postseason since 2011 (NINE-year drought) and came to Colorado on Thursday to open a 10-game road trip with a three-game series with the Rockies. Philadelphia was 9-9, including just 1-5 on the road. Colorado went 3-4 in its first seven games of the 2021 season but then dropped SEVEN in a row. However, the 6-12 Rockies welcomed Philly to Coors Field having won three of four. The Rockies won 5-4 on Friday but the Phillies rebound with a 7-5 win on Saturday. The rubber match of this three-game series at Coors Field will feature starting pitchers Chase Anderson (0-2, 4.15 ERA) for Philadelphia and Jon Gray (2-1, 2.42 ERA) of Colorado.

This marks Anderson's fourth start of 2021 and he has lasted just four innings (twice) and five innings in his other start (Phillies have lost all THREE of his starts). Anderson has made 12 career starts vs the Rockies, going 4-3 with 4.68 ERA (teams are 7-5 in his 12 starts). Gray has had an up-and-down career with the Rockies (45-37 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.34 WHIP entering 2021), showing signs of being an ace and at other times searching for consistency. Gray not only owns a 2.42 ERA in four starts this season but he has a 1.12 WHIP and an opponents batting average of .182. Gray is 3-3 with a 4.14 ERA in seven career starts (Rockies are 3-4).

Now, let's look a little deeper. Let's start with the fact that Philadelphia is just 2-6 on the road with its pitching staff allowing 5.8 RPG. Yes, Colorado is a modest 7-7 at Coors but the Rockies are averaging 5.5 RPG. Now to Anderson and Gray. FIVE of Anderson' 12 career starts vs Colorado have come at Coors, with him posting a 6.66 ERA. As for Gray, in his four career starts against the Phillies at Coors Field, he owns a 1.37 ERA and has gone at least SIX innings in each outing. Want more. THREE of Gray's four starts in 2021 have come at home, where he owns a 1.47 ERA and BAA of just .145. Hence, a Pitching Mismatch!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the LA Angels at 2:10 ET.

The LA Angels entered the 2021 season looking to end a streak of FIVE straight losing seasons (the franchise's longest skid since the 1970s) and SIX consecutive non-playoff campaigns. Most MLB fans would like to see Mike Trout finally get his FIRST playoff victory. He's earned the title of "MLB's best player" but he's been part of just ONE postseason series, with the Angels getting swept 3-0. The Houston Astros won 100-plus each season from 2017-2019 (311-175, .649), going to two World Series and winning one (2017). However, the Astros were exposed before the start of the 2020 season with a "sign-stealing" scandal that cost the team's GM and manager their jobs. Of course, COVID delayed the start of last season until late July and with a shortened 60-game schedule and no fans, the scandal seemed to fade into the background behind greater concern. The Astros fell to 29-31 in 2020 but snuck into an expanded playoff field and took the Rays to seven games in the ALCS before losing.

The Angels opened the season 6-2 and were 8-5 in mid-April. However, they've lost the first three contests of this four-game series in Houston, giving them FIVE losses in their last six to fall to 9-10. The Astros opened the season 6-1 but then lost six straight and NINE of 10, before winning 8-2, 5-4 (10 inn) and 16-2 over LA in this series. Houston is now 10-10 as the Astros attempt to complete the series sweep. However, both teams have seen the Oakland A's 'blow past them' in the AL West by winning 13 in a row. Sunday's pitching matchup is Dylan Bundy (0-2, 4.50 ERA) for LA and Lance McCullers (1-1, 5.27 ERA) for Houston.

Bundy began with Baltimore (showed little) but was 6-3 with a 3.29 ERA in 11 starts for LA last season. He hasn't started well in 2021, going 0-2 in four starts (Angels are 1-3) with a 4.50 ERA. McCullers is in his sixth season with Houston and owns a 33-26 record with a 3.74 ERA. He pitched five innings in each of his first two starts this season (allowed one run in each) but allowed six ERs in just 3.2 innings in his most recent outing on April 14. However, this marks his first start since that poor outing (10-day break).

This play is not based on the starters but more on the fact that I don't expect the Angels to get swept in this four-games series and that those Houston bats had 18 hits and 16 runs in Saturday's win. Angels NEED a bounce-back win here, as they have six road games coming up next week, at Texas and then in Seattle.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cle Indians at 1:10 ET.

The Yankees were favored to win the AL pennant entering 2020 but were just .500 after 42 games of the 60-game schedule. They were able to earn a wild card spot at 33-27 but only because of the expanded playoff field. Cleveland was 35-25 in 2020 and also earned a wild card spot, the team's FOURTH postseason appearance in the previous five years. The Indians won three straight AL Central titles (2016-18) and only non-playoff year in that run was when they won 93 games in 2019. The Indians and Yanks met in a  wild card series last season, with New York winning 2-0 (both games were in Cleveland). The Yanks and Indians opened a four-game weekend series in Cleveland on Thursday with New York just 6-11 and Cleveland at 8-8.

New York has continued its domination of the Indians in Cleveland by winning the first three games of the series, as the Yankees have seven HRs among their 22 hits in winning 6-3, 5-3 and 2-1. The Indians are now on a four-game losing streak, not to mention having gone 3-8 in their last 11 games during which they have been held to three runs or less SEVEN times. The Yankees look for a four-game sweep Sunday afternoon, while the Indians hope to avoid that dreaded four-game home sweep. Jameson Taillon (0-1, 5.40 ERA) will get the nod for New York, while Cleveland counters with Triston McKenzie (0-0, 3.55 ERA).

Taillon's first season was 2016 with Pittsburgh and in 2018, he went 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA in 32 starts (Pirates were 20-12). Taillon's 2019 season was cut short due to a forearm injury and he was shut down for the remainder of the season on August 2 to undergo surgery. He was 2–3 with a 4.10 ERA in 7 starts. His 2019 surgery to repair a flexor tendon as well as UCL revision led him to miss all of 2020. The Pirates traded Taillon to the New York Yankees in January of 2021. He's made three starts for New York so far (team is 1-2) and while he does own a 15-2 KW ratio, he also owns a 5.40 ERA and opponents are batting .283 against him. McKenzie made his MLB debut in 2020 and in eight appearances (six starts) posted a solid 3.24 ERA plus owned an excellent 0.90 WHIP and .179 BAA. He's made three appearances (two starts) in 2021. His ERA (3.55) and BAA (.209) remain good but his WHIP has jumped to 1.50.

Bottom line is this. The Yanks are being careful with Taillon's workload and this marks his first start if 2021 on four days' rest since returning from that second Tommy John surgery. He's had five days of rest between starts one and two and six days off between starts two and three. The Indians are just 6-for-23 with RISP in this series but that seems unlikely to continue. As for the Yankees completing a four-game sweep in Cleveland? That hasn't happened since June 21-23, 1996. Take the small home dog.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* LEGEND Play is on the LA Dodgers at 9:10 ET.

The Dodgers made it EIGHT straight NL West titles in 2020 and then went on to capture the franchise's first World Series win since 1988. As for San Diego, the Padres snapped a 13-year postseason drought in 2020. The Padres won their wild card series over the Cardinals but then were no match for the Dodgers, getting swept 3-0 and outscored 23-9. The Dodgers entered the current season as a big favorite to win the NL West, the NL pennant and even the World Series. However, the Padres have assembled an impressive team and were a 'sexy' preseason team "to watch for!" These two teams met last weekend in San Diego with the Padres avoiding a three-game sweep with a 5-2 last Sunday.

The Dodgers were 13-2 before losing last Sunday and then split a two-game series in Seattle, before losing the first two contests of their four-game home series vs the Padres. LA's 14-6 record is still the best record in MLB but the Dodgers enter Saturday night's game losers of FOUR of their last five. The Padres avoided a three-game sweep at home to the Dodgers last Sunday but followed by losing all three games at home to the Brewers Monday-Wednesday. They came to LA on Thursday just 10-10 but have opened the series with back-to-back wins. Fernando Tatis Jr. hit two HRs and Yu Darvish went seven strong innings as the San Diego Padres earned a 6-1 victory Friday, after a 3-2 Thursday win.

Tonight's starting pitchers are the same as last Sunday's game. Blake Snell goes for San Diego and Trevor Bauer for Los Angeles. Both are former Cy Young winners, with Snell earning his in 2018 with Tampa Bay (21-5, 1.89 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and .186 BAA) and Bauer winning his last season with Cincy (just 5-4 but with a 1.73 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, 100-17 KW ratio and a BAA of .159). Snell has yet to earn a decision in four 2021 starts (team is 2-2 and he owns a 4.11 ERA, 1.37 WHIP but also a .186 BAA). Bauer is 2-0 in three starts (Dodgers are 2-1) with a 2.42 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, 36-6 KW ratio and .114 BAA. In last Sunday's game, Snell pitched five innings (two ERs allowed with a 7-2 KW ratio), while Bauer allowed one run (solo HR) in six innings with a 7-1 KW ratio and left with a 2-1 lead.

Snell complained LOUDLY when he was removed in Game 6 of last year's World Series against the Dodgers but the fact remains that he is not much more than a five-inning pitcher. His longest outing in four starts this season is five innings (twice), going 4.2 innings in a third and getting just TWO outs in a fourth. Bauer has pitched into the 7th inning in three of his four 2021 starts, with last Sunday's effort (see above) being his shortest outing (six innings). In this quick "re-hook," I'm on Bauer and the Dodgers.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the TB Rays at 6:10 ET.

2020's expanded playoff field allowed the 32-28 Blue Jays to snap a three-year playoff drought but the Jays were eliminated 2-0 (lost 3-1 and 8-2) quickly by the Rays. Tampa Bay owned the AL's best record (40-20) in 2020 and the Rays advanced to the World Series. Both teams are 'stuck in neutral' to open the 2021 season, with the Jays moving to 9-10 with Friday's 5-3 win at Tropicana Field, while the loss dropped the Rays to  10-10. Toronto scored four times in the first innings (a three-run HR did most of the damage) off Tampa Bay ace Tyler Glasnow and held on for a 5-3 win. Taking the mound on Saturday will be Toronto's Robbie Ray (0-1, 1.80 ERA), while the Rays' Brent Honeywell Jr. (0-0, 2.70) is expected to serve as the opener for the Rays before yielding to Ryan Yarbrough.

Ray has spent most of his eight-year career with the Arizona Diamondbacks before getting traded to the Blue Jays during the 2020 season. His career record is 49-52, with a 4.23 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. That includes his "15 minutes of fame" in 2017, when he went 15-5 with a 2.89 ERA. The Jays could surely use a 'flashback' season from Ray in 2021. Ray has made two starts in 2021, posting a 1.80 ERA but 1.60 WHIP, as he has more walks (9) than Ks (6) in 10 innings. After Honeywell, left-hander Yarbrough will get the bulk of the innings. This will be his fifth appearance in 2021 (5.40 ERA and 1.34 WHIP) but note that  is 6-1 with a 2.45 ERA in 12 career appearances (five starts) against Toronto.

Toronto is still waiting for George Springer ( signed a team-record six-year, $150 million contract in the offseason) to get on the field and without him, rank just 18th in scoring (4.18 RPG). I don't have much faith in Ray and expect the Rays to bounce back here vs their AL East rivals 

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Month is on the Col Rockies at ET.

The Phillies got a walk-off win Wednesday at home vs the Giants, allowing them to split a six-game homestand. The 9-9 Phillies play in the NL East, MLB's only division without a winning team (Mets are 7-7) After getting Thursday off, the Phillies begin a 10-game road trip with a three-game weekend season in Colorado vs the Rockies. Colorado went 3-4 in its first seven games of the 2021 season but then dropped SEVEN in a row. However, the 6-12 Rockies welcome Philly to Coors Field having won three of four, after taking a two-game home series over the slumping Astros on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The Phillies will send Vince Velasquez to the mound in a spot start, as Matt Moore is in COVID-19 protocols, Colorado will counter with German Marquez, who has made four starts (1-1, 3.57 ERA). Velasquez has made three relief appearances in 2021, pitching a total of just four innings with a 9.00 ERA, and 2.75 WHIP (he's struck out nine but allowed eight walks). His first season was 2015 and has 134 appearances (106 starts), going 28-35 with a 4.75 ERA. He's faced the Rockies seven times, going 2-1 (team is 4-3) but with a 4.91 ERA and 1.58.

Marquez went 11-7, 14-11 and 12-5 for the Rockies from 2017-19, before going 4-6 with a 3.75 ERA in 13 starts (Rockies were 7-6) in 2020. He has been solid for Colorado so far, as he's not allowed more than three ERs in any of his four starts. In four career starts vs Philly, he's 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA (Colorado is 3-1). Colorado was not dominant at Coors Field last season, going just 12-18 but the Rockies did average 5.1 RPG in their home park. Colorado is winless on the road this season (0-6) and while the Rockies are a modest 6-6 at home, they have averaged 5.6 RPG at Coors. As for the Phillies, they are 1-5 on the road with their pitching staff allowing 6.0 RPG. NOT a good spot for Philadelphia!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Min Twins at 8:10 ET.

The Pirates opened the 2021 season having missed the playoffs the previous FIVE seasons, coming off back-to-back seasons of playing .396 baseball (88-134). Minnesota entered the current season off three playoff appearances in the previous four seasons, winning the AL Central in both 2019 and 2020. However, as the two teams open a three-game series at Target Field on Friday, the Pirates are 9-10 and the Twins just 6-11 (last in the AL Central). The Pirates won their season opener but followed with a SIX-game losing streak. However, they head to Minnesota having won EIGHT of their last 12. In contrast, the Twins opened 5-2 but welcome the Pirates to town having lost SIX of seven.

JT Brubaker (2-0, 1.76 ERA) takes the mound for Pittsburgh, while Minnesota counters with J.A. Happ (0-0, 3.12 ERA). Brubaker made his MLB debut in 2020 and in 11 appearances (nine starts / Pirates were 3-6) had a 4.94 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and allowed opponents to bat .262. However, he's making an early case to become Pittsburgh's 'ace.' He's 2-0 in three starts (team is 2-1), with an ERA of 1.76, a WHIP of 1.04 and a BAA of .196. Who is this guy? The veteran Happ hasn't started since April 13 and in two starts in 2021 (both team losses), owns a respectable 3.12 ERA. Happ's pitching for his SEVENTH team and made 11 starts for Pittsburgh back in 20145, going 7-2 with a 1.85 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He's only faced Pittsburgh ONCE since 2012 but in 10 career starts vs the Pirates, owns a 2.95 ERA.

Here's the rub. Happ's had more than a few good moments in a career that began back in 2007, while let's NOT be too quick to hand the moniker of 'ace' on Brubaker, after just three early starts (see above for his 2020 numbers!). Let's NOT forget that Minnesota owned MLB's best home record last season (24-7), so expect the Twins to get things turned around. As for the Pirates, they were just 2-10 vs lefties on the road in 20o2 and have opened 1-2 here in 2021 (that's 3-12). Expect veteran lefty Happ to lead the Twins to a win in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the SF Giants at 9:45 ET.

The Giants' three World Series titles (2010, 2012 and 2014) seem like they came 20 years ago, although San Francisco just barely missed the postseason last year with a 29-31 record. The Miami Marlins entered last year's COVID-shortened season having posted the NL's worst record in both 2019 (57-105) and 2018 (63-98). The Marlins suffered a significant COVID break after the team's opening series and did not play from July 27 through Aug 4. However, the Marlins not only made up all of its missed games but at 31-29 (just two games better than San Francisco), made the expanded playoffs.

Both teams played Wednesday on the East Coast, as Miami completed a 3-2 homestand with a 3-0 win over Baltimore, while the Giants lost 6-5 at Philly to finish 3-3 on a six-game road trip. Both were forced to make the cross-country trip without a day off but at least the Giants are back home. These teams played a three-game series last weekend in Miami, with the Marlins taking the first two games, before the Giants avoided a sweep with a 1-0 win on Sunday. Miami has opened 8-9, while the Giants have surprised with their 11-7 start.

Taking the mound tonight for the first of a four-game series will be Miami's Daniel Castano (0-0, 1.80 ERA) and San Francisco's Aaron Sanchez (0-1, 2.45 ERA). Both pitched in the series in Miami, with Castano allowing one run in five innings of a 4-1 Miami win on Friday and Sanchez going 4.2 innings while allowing just ONE run (Giants would lose 7-6). Castano's first season in "the Bigs" was 2020 and this marks just his ninth appearance (8th start). He owns a 2.86 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in that limited action. Some may remember Sanchez from the 2016 season when went 15-2 for Toronto while winning the American League ERA title (3.00). However, from 2016-19 he was just 10-23, as injuries plagued him. An MRI revealed a torn capsule in his right shoulder in August of 2019 and he missed the rest of the 2019 season and the entire 2020 season. Sanchez agreed to a one-year, $4 million contract with the San Francisco Giants in February of 2021. 

Sanchez has allowed four runs in 14.2 innings of his first three starts for San Francisco (2.45 ERA) but the Giants have given him just ONE run of support while he's been in the game. Expect that to change here, as the Giants have opened 5-1 at home in 2021.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* IL Shocker of the Month is on the Atl Braves at 6:35 ET.

The Atlanta Braves opened the 2021 season looking for a FOURTH NL East title (last season led the Dodgers 3-1 in the NLCS before losing THREE in a row), However, as the Braves take the field tonight at Yankee Stadium to conclude a brief two-game IL series, they are just 7-10 after a 3-1 loos in the Bronx last night. The Yankees were favored to win the AL pennant entering 2020 but were just .500 after 42 games of the 60-game schedule. They were able to earn a wild card spot but after beating the Indians, lost in the ALDS to Tampa Bay in a deciding Game 5. Last night's win gives New York just a 6-10 record, leaving them in last-place in the AL East.

Wednesday's pitching matchup will be Atlanta's Ian Anderson (0-0, 4.70 ERA) facing off against New York's Corey Kluber (0-1, 6.10 ERA). Anderson made six starts as a rookie in 2020 and went 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA, striking out 41 and walking only 14 in 32.1 innings (1.08 WHIP). He then made four playoff starts, allowing just two ERs on 11 hits over 18.2 innings (0.96 ERA) with a KW ratio of 24-10 (1.13 WHIP) and an opponent's BA of average .172. Atlanta has won two of his three 2021 starts but he's yet to earn a  decision and his numbers are NOT what they were in 2020 (4.70 ERA / 1.43 WHIP / .259 BAA).

Kluber won 18 games three times and 20 games once, in a five-year stretch between 2014-18. He won two Cy Young awards in that span, in 2014 and 2018 (20-7). However, Kluber fractured his right arm after being hit by a line drive during a game against the Miami Marlins on May 1, 2019 and his season ended after just seven starts. Cleveland traded Kluber to the Texas Rangers on July 26, 2020, Kluber made his Rangers debut but lasted just 1 inning after experiencing shoulder tightness. New York signed Kluber to a one-year $11 million contract on January 27, 2021. He's had three starts in 2021, pitching four innings twice, while lasting just 2.1 innings in a third start. He's allowed 16 hits and 10 runs (seven earned) in his 10.1 innings for a 6.10 ERA and 2.23 WHIP.

The Yankees snapped a FIVE-game losing streak last night, by scoring twice in the eighth for a 3-1 win. It marked just their THIRD win in their last 11 games. Kluber takes the mound on six days' rest but he's shown us NOTHING so far in his first three starts! Anderson is off to a so-so start but I believe this guy's "the real deal." He comes into this contest with some "good memories,", as his major-league debut came against the Yankees back on Aug 26 of last season, with him allowing just ONE run (on a solo HR) in six innings of a 5-1 Atlanta win.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Pitching Mismatch is on the Was Nationals at 4:05 ET.

The StL Cardinals were kept off the field from July 30 through August 14 last season but the Cards somehow managed to earn a wild card spot with a 30-28 record It was the team's SEVENTH postseason appearance over the previous 10 years. Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals followed the franchise's first-ever World Series win in 2019 with a 26-34 record in 2020, finishing in last-place in the NL East. The Cards are 8-9 and the Nats 6-9 as the teams square off in the rubber match of this three-game series.

Wednesday's starting pitchers are Carlos Martinez (0-3, 7.80 ERA) for St Louis and Max Scherzer (0-1, 2.37 ERA). St Louis turned Martinez into a starter and he won 42 games with ERAs of 3.01, 3.04 and .364 over a three-year span (2015-17). However, he was back in the bullpen in 2019 (all 48 appearances were in relief). He then made just five starts in 2020's shortened season and was just AWFUL, going 0-3 in five starts (Cards were 1-4) with a 9.90 ERA and 2.10 WHIP. Martinez has pitched exactly five innings in each of his three 2021 starts, allowing 13 ERs for a 7.80 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.

Scherzer is a three-time Cy Young award winner (2013, 2016 and 2017) but has yet to earn a win in three starts this season. He went six innings in his 2021 debut and allowed just four hits but all four were solo HRs. However, in his last two starts, he's pitched 13 innings, allowing five hits and one ER (0.69 ERA) with a 15-3 KW ratio. Scherzer is overdue to earn his first win of 2021, while Martinez looks completely 'lost.'  Martinez pitched exclusively out of the bullpen in 2019 and in 2020 and 2021, has made just eight starts, allowing 35 ERs over 35 innings (9.00 ERA). He hasn't won a game as a starter since July 7, 2018!! Sounds like a pitching mismatch to me.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Ultimate Underdog is on the Chi Cubs at 7:40 ET.

The New York Mets made the World Series back in 2015 (lost to KC 4-1) and had a wild card appearance the following year. However, they opened the 2021 season without a playoff appearance the previous four seasons, going just 26-34 in 2020. The Cubs were 35-25 (wild card team) in 2020's pandemic-shortened season, their FIFTH playoff appearance over the previous six years. The Mets and Cubs meet for the first time this season in this three-game series at Wrigley Field. The Mets come in 7-4, sitting in first-place in the NL East. In contrast, the Cubs' 6-9 record leaves them in last-place in the NL Central. The Cubs own MLB's worst team BA (.192) and are averaging just 3.40 RPG (28th of 230 teams). The Mets are hitting .246 as a team (8th) but has produced even fewer runs than the Cubs, averaging 3.08 RPG (last in all of MLB).

Taijuan Walker (0-0, 2.61 ERA) makes his third start of 2021, looking for his first victory as a Met. Jake Arrieta is back with the Cubs and has opened 2-1 with a  3.18 ERA through three starts. Walker made 82 starts from 2015-107, going 28-28. However, he was limited to just 15 starts from 2018-20, with his Tommy John surgery being the main culprit to his limited action. The Mets signed him to a two-year contract in February and he's lasted 10.1 IP with a 2.61 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 12-5 KW ratio (Mets are 2-0).

Arrieta began his career with Baltimore but his trade to Cubs gave his career 'life.' He won a Cy Young award in 2015 (22-6 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.86 WHIP) and went 18-8 in 2016 when the Cubs finally won the World Series. He signed with Philly as a free agent but from 2018-20, was just 22-23 with a 4.36. He returned to the Cubs for 2021 and has looked pretty good. He has made 17 career starts against the Mets and owns a more than respectable 3.28 ERA. BOTH teams have struggled offensively (see above) but I see no reason for the Mets and Walker to be favored over the Cubs here in Wrigley, with Arrieta on the mound.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cle Indians at 6:10 ET.

The Chicago White Sox ended an 11-year postseason drought in 2020 by going 35-25 and earning a wild card spot in the pandemic-shortened season. Cleveland was 35-25 in 2020 as well (also earned a wild card spot) but last year was the team's FOURTH postseason appearance in the previous five years. The Indians won three straight AL Central titles (2016-18) and only non-playoff year in that run was when they won 93 games in 2019. Note: The White Sox have only won more than 93 games TWICE this century, going 95-67 in 2000 and 99-63 in 2005, when they won the World Series (just third in franchise history and first since 1917!)  However, Chicago was a 'sexy' preseason pick to win the AL pennant.

Neither team is off to a good start, as the White Sox are 8-9 and the Indians are 8-7. The teams played a four-game series in Chicago from April 12-15, splitting the four games. The most notable game in last week's series was Wednesday when Carlos Rodon pitched a no-hitter in an 8-0 Chicago victory. He was within two outs of a perfect game but hit Roberto Perez on the back foot on an 0-2 pitch. Tonight's pitching matchup will be a 're-hook' from last Wednesday, with Rodon (2-0, 0.00 ERA) again squaring off against Zach Plesac (1-2, 5.27 ERA).

Rodon came into the 2021 season having made 97 appearances (92 starts) with a 29-33 record and a 4.14 ERA. he had made just 11 appearances (nine starts) in 2019 and 2020, combined. We know about his no-hitter but note that in his first start of 2021, he pitched five scoreless innings, allowing just two hits with nine Ks (6-0 win at Seattle). Rodon should be confident, as in 16 career starts vs Cleveland, the White Sox may be just 8-8 but he owns a 2.59 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.

That's all well and good but following up a no-hit effort can be a VERY tough assignment. Plesac got himself in trouble with his teammates for ignoring COVID protocols in 2020 but he has all the stuff to be a solid MLB pitcher. He was 12-6 with a 3.32 ERA in 2019 and 2020 (team was 18-11 in his 29 starts) and prior to getting just TWO outs (allowed six ERs) opposite Rodon last Wednesday, had allowed just two ERs over 13 innings of his first two starts (1.38 ERA) with a 10-2 KW ratio. Note that "getting to" a right-handed starter has been the exception, NOT the rule for the Whit Sox in 2021. Including last Wednesday's outburst, Chicago is averaging only 3.7 RPG against righties in 11 tries. Plesac comes oy the winner in this rematch.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Was Nationals at 7:05 ET.

The St Louis Cardinals were kept off the field from July 30 through August 14 last season but somehow managed to earn a wild card spot with a 30-28 record (team's 7th postseason appearance in the last 10 years). The Washington Nationals made a memorable run in winning the 2019 World Series but followed by going just 26-34 in 2020, finishing last in the NL East. The pandemic-depleted Nationals opened the 2021 season 1-5 but have won four of their last seven (now 5-8).

These two teams met in a three-game series April 12-14 in St Louis, with the Cards taking two of three. Monday is the opening contest of a three-game series in Washington, as Jack Flaherty (2-0, 4.11 ERA) makes his fourth start of the season for St. Louis, opposed by Washington's Joe Ross (1-0, 0.00 ERA), who makes his third. Flaherty had an easy time of it last Tuesday at home vs the Nats, allowing a just ONE run on three hits over five innings (6-0 KW ratio). The Cardinals' offense exploded for 15 hits in a 14-3 rout, Ross took the mound the next day for Washington and spun six scoreless innings in a 6-0 Washington win.

The Cards have high hopes for Flaherty but I'm not convinced he's a front-of-the-rotation starter. Neither is Ross but after electing not to play in 2020, he has not given up a SINGLE run in 11 innings over two starts. He's made four career starts vs the Cards, going 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA (team is 3-1), including that 6-0 win last Wednesday. He faces a St Louis team that ranks 12th in the NL with a .221 team batting average and 11th with a .304 on-base percentage. The Cards had a pair of offensive outbursts in the past week, but have also scored two or less runs in their last FOUR losses over a stretch of six games.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Late-Breaker is on the Chi Cubs at 7:08 ET.

The Atlanta Braves won the NL East in 2020 (35-25), giving them THREE straight division titles. Atlanta then took a 3-1 lead over the Dodgers in the NLCS, before LA rebounded to win the series in seven games. The Chicago Cubs opened the current season having made the playoffs in FIVE of the last six seasons. Neither team has started well in 2021, as the Braves are 6-9 (last-place in the NL East) and the Cubs are 6-8 (4th-place in the five-team NL Central).

The Braves won Friday's game but the Cubs crushed the Braves 13-4 on Saturday. The rubber match of this three-game series goes Sunday from Wrigley, as Bryse Wilson starts for Atlanta and Kyle Hendricks for Chicago. Atlanta has three starting pitchers sidelined, Max Fried (hamstring), Mike Soroka (shoulder) and Drew Smyly (forearm), so Wilson will make his season debut after being called up from the alternate site Saturday morning. From 2018-20 he made 15 appearances (seven starts) for Atlanta, posting a 5.91 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and .306 BAA. 

Hendricks went 16-8 with a 2.13 ERA (0.98 WHIP) back in 2016 and while he's never matched those numbers, he's been an effective starter. His ERAs have been 3.03, 3.33, 3.46 and 2.88 the last four seasons. He struggled in his 2021 debut (3 IP / 3 ERs) but on April 7, pitched six shutout innings vs Milwaukee (he took a no-decision). He was set to pitch Tuesday but experienced some COVID-19 symptoms and was held out. "He's feeling much better," manager David Ross said Saturday. "Unless something changes, Kyle will pitch Sunday."

Hendricks owns a 2.46 ERA in five appearances (four starts) vs the Braves and I love the pitching matchup of him over the inexperienced Wilson. Chicago entered Saturday's  game last in the majors in batting average (.166), on-base percentage (.267) slugging percentage (.307) and runners in scoring position (.084). However, the Cubs had 14 hits (including six HRs) in their 13-4 win over Atlanta on Saturday (run output was a season high). Cubs won't need that kind of output here with Hendricks on the mound but there is no reason NOT to expect them to 'beat up' Wilson. Cubs Win! Cubs Win!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AL Game of the Month is on the Tor Blue Jays at 2:10 ET.

Toronto made back-to-back appearances in the ALCS in 2015 and 2016 but three losing seasons followed, before the Blue Jays surprised all going 32-28 in 2020. However, Toronto was eliminated by Tampa Bay 2-0 in a best-of-three series. The KC Royals made back-to-back World Series appearances in 2014 (lost Game 7 to the Giants) and in 2015 (beat the Mets 4-1) but entered 2021 off five straight non-winning seasons. KC lost 194 games in 2018, 103 games in 2019 and then went 26-34 in 2020 (on pace of 93 losses in a 162-game schedule).

The Blue Jays and Royals wrap up a four-game series today in KC, after splitting Saturday's doubleheader. KC won Thursday (7-5) and with victory here, can do something they haven't done in four seasons. That is, claim their first series win against the Blue Jays since 2017. In that same vein, the Royals are one of two teams in MLB (the Dodgers are the other) that has not lost a series. The Royals have won two series and split two series, with Sunday's outcome determining if they win or tie their third series of the season. The Royals are 8-5 (lead the AL Central), while the Blue jays are 7-8 in AL East, where the only team above .500 is the 10-4 Red Sox.

Sunday's starters are Robbie Ray (0-1, 3.60 ERA) and Brady Singer (0-2, 6.48 ERA). Ray has spent most of his eight-year career with the Arizona Diamondbacks before getting traded to the Blue Jays during the 2020 season. His career record is 49-52, with a 4.26 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.  That includes his "15 minutes of fame" in 2017, when he went 15-5 with a 2.89 ERA. The Jays could surely use a 'flashback' season from Ray in 2021. Ray made his season debut against the Yankees on April 12, giving up two ERs in five innings. His ONLY prior appearance against the Royals was in the final game of the 2017 season (1.2 IP / 1 ER).

Singer was a rookie in 2020, making 12 starts with a 4-5 record, 4.06 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and .220 BAA. Boy would the Royals like to see those kinds of numbers in 2021. So far, that hasn't come CLOSE to happening. Singer's off to an 0-2 start and he's EARNED that record! He's lasted just 8.1 IP with a 6.48 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and .333 BAA! Let me also note that the KC bats scored 25 runs in the Royals' first two wins of 2021 but since that time, KC is 6-5 while averaging 3.3 RPG. Ray gets the nod over Singer in the starting pitcher matchup, plus Toronto owns a MLB-best bullpen ERA of 2.05. In comparison, KC's bullpen ERA is DOUBLE that at 4.10. Toronto is the bet.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mia Marlins at 6:10 ET.

The Giants' three World Series titles (2010, 2012 and 2014) seem like they came 20 years ago, although San Francisco just barely missed the postseason last year with a 29-31 record. The Miami Marlins entered last year's COVID-shortened season having posted the NL's worst record in both 2019 (57-105) and 2018 (63-98). The Marlins suffered a significant COVID break after the team's opening series and did not play from July 27 through Aug 4. However, the Marlins not only made up all of its missed games but at 31-29 (just two games better than San Francisco), made the expanded playoffs. 

The Giants opened the 2021 season 6-3 but last night's 4-1 loss in Miami drops them to 8-5. Not bad for a team that ranks 28th in spring (3.23 RPG) and 28th in team batting (.203). In contrast, the Marlins got off to a 1-6 start but have since won FIVE of their last six games, including last night's win. Saturday's starters are the Giants' Aaron Sanchez (0-1, 2.70 ERA) and the Marlins' Sandy Alcantara (0-1, 2.45 ERA). Both have pitched well so far but have gotten little support.

Some remember Sanchez from the 2016 season when went 15-2 for Toronto while winning the American League ERA title (3.00). However, from 2016-19 he was just 10-23, as injuries plagued him. An MRI revealed a torn capsule in his right shoulder in August of 2019 and he missed the rest of the 2019 season and the entire 2020 season. Sanchez agreed to a one-year, $4 million contract with the San Francisco Giants in February of 2021. He's pitched five innings in each of his 2021 starts (three ERs allows) but the Giants have lost 3-0 and 3-1.

Miami's Alcantara has felt the pain of non-support in 2021, as well. He's got a 2.45 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and has held opponents to a .159 BAA in three 2021 starts. However, the Marlins scored just TWO runs in his first two starts combined (both team losses) and then gave him just ONE run vs Atlanta (6.1 IP / 3 ERs), before rallying after he left to win 5-3 in 10 innings. Alcantara is considered Miami's ace and is OVERDUE for some support. He shouldn't need much as he owns a 1.32 ERA in three career appearances against the Giants, including two starts. Both starts came in 2019, with him allowing one ER in 13 innings (0.69 ERA). Remember, he's facing a 'tooth-less' San Francisco offense (see above).

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Afternoon Delight (IL Game of the Month) is on the Cin Reds at 4:10 ET.

The Cleveland Indians won the AL Central title from 2016-18 but missed the playoffs in 2019, despite 93 wins. Cleveland was back in the postseason last year (35-25) but was eliminated by the Yankees in the wild card round, Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds ended a six-year postseason drought last season by going 31-29 to earn a wild card spot in the expanded playoffs but were also eliminated right away. Cleveland arrived in Cincinnati on Friday at 7-5 on the season but having won 10 of its last 12 games against the Reds (since July 2018). As for the Reds, they averaged 9.5 runs, batted .320 and posted an OPS of 1.006 while going 5-1 against the Cardinals and Pirates in  their season-opening homestand. However, they followed by totaling just 18 runs, getting shut out twice and batting .206 with a .612 OPS during a 2-4 road trip to Arizona and San Francisco.

Glad to be back home, the Reds' Joey Votto hit a two-run HR to highlight a seven-run third inning, allowing Cincy to cruise to a 10-3 victory. Taking the mound in the second contest of this three-game series will be Cleveland's Triston McKenzie (0-0, 4.70 ERA) and Cincy's Sonny Gray (2021 debut). McKenzie is a promising 23-year-old, who is beginning his first full major league season. He made his first 2021 appearance in relief, then yielded a three-run HR but then allowed just one other hit while striking out six with two walks over four innings of a 4-3 loss to the Chicago White Sox on Monday,

Gray had back-to-back 14-win seasons with the A's 2014 & 2015) but never built on that the next four seasons. However, when he signed with The Reds in 2019, he went 11-8 in 31 starts (teams was 19-12), posting a 2.87 ERA and 1.08. He got off to a great start in 2020 (1.94 ERA through the end of August) but was 'lit up' in four September starts, posting an 'ugly' 8.79 ERA. A strained back muscle has delayed Gray's first start here in 2021 but he's ready to go. He pitched at the club's alternate site in Louisville and threw 84 pitches in a simulated outing last weekend. "When you come back, you hit the ground running -- let's go," Gray told the Reds' official website. "That's kind of where we're at with that." He won't be on a pitch or inning limitation Saturday, according to the Reds.

Gray owns a 3.15 ERA in 10 regular-season starts vs the Indians and takes the mound in front of a team that is 6-1 at home, averaging 9.6 runs and batting .321 with 16 HRs. In contrast, rookie McKenzie is 'begging' for some offensive support, as the Indians have totaled only 10 runs for their starting pitchers while the club has split its last six games. Reds Win! Reds Win!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Reds at 7:10 ET.

The Cleveland Indians won the AL Central title from 2016-18 but missed the playoffs in 2019, despite 93 wins. Cleveland was back in the postseason last year (35-25) but was eliminated by the Yankees in the wild card round, Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds ended a six-year postseason drought last season by going 31-29 to earn a wild card spot in the expanded playoffs but were also eliminated right away. 

Cleveland arrives in Cincinnati having just split a four-game road series against the Chicago White Sox. One day after being no-hit by Carlos Rodon, the Indians bounced back with a 4-2 victory on Thursday and are currently off to a 7-5 start. Cincinnati averaged 9.5 runs, batted .320 and posted an OPS of 1.006 while going 5-1 against the Cardinals and Pirates, its season-opening homestand. However, the Reds followed by totaling just 18 runs, getting shut out twice and batting .206 with a .612 OPS during a 2-4 road trip to Arizona and San Francisco.

Cleveland lefty Logan Allen (1-1, 2.70 ERA) will take the mound at Cincinnati, with the Reds countering with Jeff Hoffman (1-1, 3.86 ERA). Allen entered the 2021 season with just 12 appearances (four starts) and a 5.40 ERA. Hoffman spent his first five seasons with Colorado (68 appearances / 38 starts), going 10-16 with a 6.39 ERA. Both are making their third starts of 2021 and both have been fine (see stats above).

The good news for Cleveland supporters (and bad news for Cincy fans) is the Reds have totaled just 27 runs, hit .196 as a team and struck out 121 times while losing 10 of their last 12 games with the Indians (since July 2018). However, I'm not so sure the past means all that much here. The Reds 'turned a corner' last season and I feel as Hoffmann can become a solid member of the rotation now that he's away from Coors Field. Remember, the Reds averaged 9.5 RPG in its opening six-game home stand (see more stats above) and I expect Cincy's bats to 'wake up' vs the virtually untested Allen.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Phi Phillies at 7:05 ET.

The StL Cardinals were kept off the field from July 30 through August 14 last season but the Cards somehow managed to earn a wild card spot with a 30-28 record  It was the team's SEVENTH postseason appearance over the previous 10 years. Meanwhile, the Phillies opened the 2021 season seeking their first winning season since 2011, with hopes of ending a NINE-year postseason drought. The Cards opened 5-2 but have lost four of five since, while the Phillies began the current season winning FIVE of six at home vs the Braves and Mets but then lost FIVE of six on the road against those same two NL East rivals.

Carlos Martinez (0-2, 6.30 ERA) will make his third start this season for the Cards, while the Phillies counter with Zach Eflin (0-0, 3.46 ERA), who is also making his third start of 2021.St Louis turned Martinez into a starter and he won 42 games with ERAs of 3.01, 3.04 and .364 over a three-year span (2015-17). However, he was back in the bullpen in 2019 (all 48 appearances were in relief). He made just five starts in 2020's shortened season and was just AWFUL, going 0-3 in five starts (Cards were 1-4) with a 9.90 ERA and 2,10 WHIP (you read that right!). In two starts in 2020, he's got a 6.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.

I'm no real fan of Eflin (29-33 with a 4.60 ERA in his career) but he's had two decent starts vs the Braves to open 2021 (3.46 ERA and 1.00 WHIP). My play here is more focused on Philly returning home where the team is 5-1. Thursday's rainout against the Mets meant the Phillies avoided Jacob deGrom and now they get Martinez, who has lost his mojo. The Cards had an "off day" Thursday but here's some bad news, the Cards are just 10-21 the last three seasons after an off day.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Afternoon Delight is on the Min Twins at 1:10 ET.

The Red Sox won the 2018 World Series but missed the postseason in 2019. Then game the COVID-shortened 2020 season in which Boston went 24-36. How bad was last year? The last time the Red Sox owned a winning percentage worse than its .400 from 2020 was 1965, when Boston went 62-100 (.383). The Red Sox opened the 2021 season with THREE straight losses while scoring just FIVE runs but Boston has now won NINE in a row after sweeping the Twins in Wednesday's doubleheader (Boston is averaging 7.4 RPG during its current winning streak). As for Minnesota, the Twins entered the current season off three playoff appearances in the previous four seasons, winning the AL Central in both 2019 and 2020. The Twins started 3-1 this season but will take the field Thursday afternoon at 5-7, leaving them in last-place in the AL Central. More notably , Minnesota has dropped FIVE straight home games for the first time since Rocco Baldelli took over as manager in 2019. The Twins are just 1-for-24 with RISP in their three straight losses to the Red Sox.

Garrett Richards (0-1, 10.29 ERA) gets the ball for Boston, while Michael Pineda (1-0, 1.64 ERA) will start for Minnesota. Richards is in his 11th season, the first eight in which he pitched for the Angels. He had just one memorable season (13-4, 2.61 ERA in 2014) with LA and his 2018 was ended with Tommy John surgery. He signed with SD in 2019 and returned from surgery to make just three starts (8.31 ERA). he was healthy in 2020 but in 14 appearances (10 starts) was just 2-2 with a 4.07 ERA. He signed a one-year deal with Boston for 2021 (a mere $10 million) and has two starts (both against Baltimore) His 2021 debut was ugly (6 ERs in 2 IP) but he improved in his second (2 ERs in 5 IP).

Pineda's career has been interrupted by injury on a semi-regular basis but he seemed to find a 'home' with Minnesota in 2019. He was 11-5 with a 4.01 ERA before he received a 60-game suspension for testing positive for hydrochlorothiazide. His suspension ran into 2020, when he made five starts, going 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA (Twins were 5-0). He has opened the 20102 season with two good outings, allowing just two ERs over 11 innings (1.64 ERA / 0.91 WHIP).

Boston's win streak will end and why not here? After all, the Twins owned MLB's best home record in 2020 going 24-7. Also note that the Twins saw the return of third baseman Josh Donaldson from a hamstring injury he suffered on Opening Day at Milwaukee on Wednesday. Donaldson was activated from the injured list just before the second game and singled, walked and scored Minnesota's lone run.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Afternoon Delight is on the SF Giants at 3:45 ET.

The Cincinnati Reds won 3-0 Monday night in San Francisco but the Giants bounced back with a 7-6 victory last night. The teams meet in the rubber match of this three-game series this afternoon at Oracle Park. The Reds ended a six-year postseason drought last season by going 31-29 to earn a wild card spot in the expanded playoffs. The Giants' three World Series titles (2010, 2012 and 2014) seem like they came 20 years ago, although San Francisco just barely missed the postseason last year with a 29-31 record (pretty similar to the Reds). 

The teams enter this contest with identical 7-4 records, with Tyler Mahle (1-0, 2.00 ERA) taking the mound for the Reds to face former-Red Johnny Cueto (1-0, 2.51 ERA). Mahle is in his fifth season but has shown little in his two busiest years, going 7-9 (23 starts) with a 4.98 ERA in 2018 and 3-13 (25 starts) with a 65.14 ERA in 2019. He's lasted just nine innings in his two starts this season (allowed just two ERs) but the Reds have won both. Cueto pitched 7 1/2 seasons for the Reds before being dealt to Kansas City in 2015. He signed with the Giants in 2016 and went 18-5 (2.79 ERA) that season but from 2017 through his first two starts of 2021, he has been healthy enough to make just 52 starts, going 15-15! The Giants have won Cueto's first two starts in 2021. He's only faced his former team three times but in his most recent two starts, he's allowed four ERs in 15 innings (2.40 ERA) with the Giants winning both games.

As noted above, both teams are 7-4, with each team being strong at home (Reds 5-1 / Giants 4-1). This is a quick turnaround from a night game to an afternoon affair but San Francisco manager Gabe Kapler employed what he called a "line change," replacing four of his eight starting position players as Tuesday's game went along. I'm "all over" the home team and Cueto, who keeps his former team in check.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Chi Cubs at 7:40 ET.

The Cubs and Brewers (NL Central rivals) meet again in Milwaukee on Tuesday, after the Brewers won 6-3 last night in the first of this three-game series. The Cubs have now lost FIVE of their last six, scoring three or less runs in five of those six. In contrast, the Brewers have won five of their last six games, having scored 24 runs in their last three games and four or more runs in FIVE of their last six games.

The pitching matchup features the teams' respective aces, Chicago's Kyle Hendricks and Milwaukee's Brandon Woodruff. Hendricks has yet to win in his previous two starts of 2021 (he's 0-1 and the team 0-2), as has Woodruff. However, the Brewers are 2-0 in Woodruff's starts with him posting a 2.45 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and a 13-2 KW ratio. These two squared off against each other on April 7 in Wrigley, with BOTH pitching well. Hendricks threw six scoreless innings (6-1 KW ratio), while Woodruff pitched seven scoreless innings, allowing one hit with an 8-0KW ratio.

At the moment, the Cubs are struggling (can't find their offense) while the Brewers are playing well. However, in this quick "re-hook," I'll side with Hendricks, who in 24 career starts (most vs any opponent) owns a 2.72 ERA and 1.04 WHIP vs Milwaukee. The Cubs will break out of their batting slump sometime and I believe Hendricks won't need too much here to earn the "W."

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (AL East) is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:07 ET.

The Yankees and the Blue Jays continue their three-game series in Toronto on Tuesday, after the Yankees won 3-1 Monday behind Gerrit Cole's six-inning effort (allowed just one run on three hits and eight Ks). Kyle Higashioka did all the damage the Yankees needed with two HRs and three RBI, while the Jays managed just five hits in falling to 4-6 (Yankees are 5-5).

Taking the mound on Tuesday will be New York's James Taillon and Toronto's Hyun-Jin Ryu Taillon's first season was 2016 with Pittsburgh and in 2018, went 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA in 32 starts (Pirates were 20-12). Taillon's 2019 season was cut short due to a forearm injury and he was shut down for the remainder of the season on August 2 to undergo surgery. He was 2–3 with a 4.10 ERA in 7 starts. His 2019 surgery to repair a flexor tendon as well as UCL revision led him to miss all of 2020. The Pirates traded Taillon to the New York Yankees in January of 2021. He lasted 4.2 innings in his 2021 debut (allowed two ERs) but had a 7-0 KW ratio.

Ryu pitched for the Dodgers from 2013 through 2019, winning 14 games in three different seasons. The best of those was in 2019 when he went 14-5 with a 2,32 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. He had a strong 2020 season for Toronto, going 5-2, 2.69 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 12 starts (team was 9-3). Toronto made back-to-back appearances in the ALCS in 2015 and 2016 but three losing seasons followed, before the Blue Jays surprised all going 32-28 in 2020. However, Toronto was eliminated by Tampa Bay 2-0 in a best-of-three series.

Ryu was Toronto's ace last season (see results above) and he's had two solid outings in 2021, allowing four ERs over 12.1 innings (2.92 ERA) with a 12-1 KW ratio. The Yankees were just 3-7 on the road vs lefties in 2020 (averaged only 3.1 RPG) and entered last night 0-3 vs lefties in 2021, averaging 3.3 RPG. The Yankees did win vs lefty Robbie Ray on Monday but Ray allowed just a two-run HR in five innings. What Ryu is missing so far in 2021 is a "W" and with some help from the Toronto bats, gets his first win of 2021 right here!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (AL Central) is on the Chi White Sox at 8:10 ET.

The Chicago White Sox made the playoffs for the first time since 2008 last year, ending a run of SEVEN consecutive losing seasons, In 2021, the White Sox are hoping to bring home their first World Series championship since 2005 and only the second since 1917. The Cleveland Indians won the AL Central title from 2016-18 but missed the playoffs in 2019, despite 93 wins. Cleveland was back in the postseason last year (35-25) but was eliminated by the Yankees in the wild card round, The Indians are 5-3 to open the 2021 season but will spend this week on the road, with four games in Chicago against the White Sox (Mon-Thu) and then three games at Cincinnati. The White Sox are just 4-5 to open 2021 but have only played twice at home (1-1). However, the Indians won EIGHT of 10 meetings with the White Sox in 2020.

Cleveland enters on a four-game winning streak after concluding a three-game series of the Detroit Tigers with a 5-2 victory on Sunday. Chicago lost three of its first four games but then went 12-for-39 (.307) with runners in scoring position in winning three of its next four contests. However, the White Sox blew a pair of one-run leads on Sunday in taking a 4-3 loss in 10 innings against the Kansas City Royals. Cleveland's rotation owns a 2.70 ERA and will open this series with Triston McKenzie (0-0, 2.45 ERA). Carlos Rodon (1-0, 0.00 ERA) will get the ball for Chicago.

McKenzie went 2-1 with a 3.68 ERA in six starts last season (Indians were 3-3) and began this season by allowing a run, two hits and four walks in 3.2 innings during last Monday's 3-0 loss to Kansas City. The Indians have said that they will monitor McKenzie's workload closely since he went two years without pitching due to injuries and threw just 33.1 innings last season. Carlos Rodon missed the majority of last season due to left shoulder soreness but opened 2021 with five scoreless innings (allowed just two hits) in last Monday's 6-0 win in Seattle (he settled for a no-decision). Rodon has made 15 career starts vs Cleveland and while he's just 5-4 (team is 7-8), he' owns an excellent 2.83 ERA. The Indians averaged just 3.9 RPG in 13 contests vs left-handers and I'm backing Rodon and the White Sox in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the StL Cards at 7:45 ET.

The Washington Nationals made a memorable run in winning the 2019 World Series but followed by going just 26-34 in 2020, finishing last in the NL East. The pandemic-depleted Nationals of 2021 have opened 1-5 (.167), giving them the worst record in MLB. Washington will try to snap a five-game losing streak when they visit the 5-4 St Louis Cardinals for a three-game series starting Monday. The Cardinals know all about dealing with COVID-19, as the Cards were kept off the field from July 30 through August 14 last season. However, the Cards somehow managed to earn a wild card spot with a 30-28 record

Erick Fedde (0-1, 27.00 ERA) of Washington and John Grant (0-0, 0.00 ERA) will each make their second starts of the season in Monday's game. Faded is in his fifth season with Washington and in 47 appearances (35 starts), is just 8-12 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. He allowed six runs (five earned) of a 7-6 loss to the Atlanta Braves on April 7. His only career start vs St Louis came back in 2018 when he allowed four ERs over five innings of an 11-8 loss (he got a no-decision). Gant is in his sixth season but he's started just 29 times in his 135 career appearances. Gant didn't allow an earned run in four innings during a 4-2 victory over Miami on April 6 (got a no-decision). His most recent starts vs Washington came in 2018 (two), as he allowed just one ER over 9.2 innings (0.93 ERA) with the Cards winning both games.

The Nats are a mess right now, having lost FIVE in a row and enter having averaged 2.83 RPG (28th of 30 teams). Washington was just 15-28 vs righties last season, including 6-14 on the road, averaging 3.9 RPG. The losing continues for Washington, as St Louis wins "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cin Reds at 4:10 ET.

The Cincinnati Reds and the Arizona Diamondbacks meet Sunday at Chase Field in the rubber match of this three-game series. Cincinnati took two of three to open the season vs the Cardinals, then swept the Pirates in their second series. After a 6-5 win on Friday, the Reds coughed up five runs in the fifth inning on the way to an 8-3 loss. Arizona opened the season losing THREE of four in San Diego and then TWO of three in Colorado. As just noted, the Diamondbacks suffered a one-run loss on Friday, before their bats 'warmed' with eight runs on 10 hits yesterday.

Sunday's pitching matchup features the Reds' Jose De Leon and Arizona's Luke Weaver. De Leon is in his fifth season but has shown little promise. However, he had a solid outing in his 2021, pitching five innings in the Reds' 5-3 win over Pittsburgh, allowing two runs on solo HRs. Luke Weaver started with St Louis (2015-17) and was 15-17 with a 4.79 ERA. He showed promise in his first season with Arizona (2019), going 4-3 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 12 starts. However, Weaver was just plain AWFUL in 2020, going 1-9 with a 6.58 ERA, as the D'backs lost 10 of his 12 starts and his 'sorry' ERA was matched by his 1.56 WHIP. His 2021 debut saw him allow three ERs in 5.2 innings at Coors Field, as Arizona beat the Rockies 10-8.

'Leaning' on De Leon is NOT the key to this play and although it's easy to make a case going against Weaver, that is not the key either (but it DOESN'T hurt). The Reds ended a six-year playoff drought last season by going 31-19 and this year's team owns a lineup that will have them competing for a postseason spot again in 2021. The Reds lead all of MLB with a .312 team BA (only THREE other teams are hitting .280-plus), as well as in runs scored with 66 (8.25 per game). Compare that with Arizona, which owns a team BA of .214 (basically 100 points LOWER than Cincy) and averages just 4.75 RPG. It's Cincinnati bats over the Arizona bats, as the Reds open the season with three straight series' wins and move to 7-2. Watch out NL Central!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Chi White Sox at 2:10 ET.

The Kansas City Royals opened the season 2-0 by scoring 25 runs in their first two games against the Rangers, However, the Royals have lost THREE of four while scoring a total of just eight runs after a 6-0 loss Thursday at Chicago (KC has scored FIVE runs in the team's three losses). The Chicago White Sox opened by losing THREE of four in Anaheim vs the Angels but have rebounded to win THREE of four. Both teams are 4-4 after a rare Friday off and a Saturday postponement.

Mike Minor (1-0, 6.00 ERA) starts for KC and Dylan Cease (0-0, 5.79 ERA) for Chicago. Minor had a couple of solid seasons for Texas in 2018 (12-8) and 2019 (14-10) but was 0-5 (5.60 ERA) in seven starts for the Rangers in 2020 when he was traded to Oakland, where in five appearances (four starts) he was 1-1 with a 5.48 ERA. Naturally, KC signed him to a two-year deal for $18 million (can't make this stuff up). Minor picked up the victory in his start with KC, despite allowing four ERs in his first three innings, before settling down with three more shutout innings as the Royals came from behind to defeat the Texas Rangers 11-4.

Two White Sox starters have ERAs of 0.00, while the other three are over 4.00. Cease's ERA is 5.79 ERA after getting no decision in a 7-4 loss to the Angels. He struggled in the first inning of his April 4 start, allowing a 451-foot HR to Shohei Ohtani, before settling down. He finished allowing three runs on five hits in 4.2 innings. Cease has made 26 starts for Chicago the last two seasons (9-11) with a 5.00 ERA.

However, my play on Chicago has little to do with Cease. The Royals have only had one close game (decided by one or two runs) in their six decisions. They scored in double figures in their first two games and secured their third win with a 3-0 shutout. Yet, they have scored a total of five runs in their three losses. Meanwhile, the White Sox's four wins have come by at least four runs, with three of them coming by six runs. That's in stark contrast to their four losses, which have come by one, two, three and four runs. More notably, Minor is a lefty and Chicago was 14-0 vs left-handed starters last season (averaged 7.1 RPG) plus has opened 3-0 against them in 2021, averaging 9.3 RPG. You want to 'step in front of that train?' Not I.

Good luck...Larry

My free play is on the NY Yankees at 1:10 ET.

The Rays/Yankees rivalry is gaining momentum quickly, as Tampa Bay won the AL East by SEVEN games over New York in 2020 and then eliminated the Yankees in the ALDS by edging the Yankees 2-1 in the deciding Game 5 of the ALDS. Tampa Bay pounded the Yankees 10-5 in Friday's home opener and then won 4-0 on Saturday. The Rays are 12-2 in the last 14 regular-season meetings and 15-4 including their five-game victory in last season's ALDS.

The Yankees' 3-5 start leaves them in last-place in the AL East as they look to avoid a three-game sweep Sunday afternoon at Tropicana Field. New York's Jordan Montgomery (1-0, 0.00 ERA) will take the mound nearly four years to the day of his major league debut also against Tampa Bay. Speaking of Tampa Bay, the Rays will use an opener in Brett Honeywell, who has been called up for his major league debut. Honeywell is making his debut after enduring Tommy John surgery in 2018, an operation to repair a broken bone in 2019, a nerve decompression procedure last May and arthroscopic surgery in December. He is 31-19 with a 2.88 ERA in 79 career minor league appearances and is pitching for the first time since 2017 with Triple-A Durham.

Montgomery knows a little bit about missing time due to injury. This is his second season since recovering from missing most of 2018 and 2019 due to Tommy John surgery. He was 2-3 with a 5.11 ERA in 10 starts (team was 5-5) last season. However, there were reasons to be optimistic about Montgomery, who pitched well during spring training going 3-0 with 0.90 ERA in three starts. He made his 2021 debut this past Monday in New York's 7-0 home win over Baltimore, pitching six scoreless innings with a 7-0 KW ratio. Let me also add that Montgomery started a postseason game for New York against Tampa Bay in 2020, allowing just one run in four innings of a 5-1 Yankees win. I'll back the Yankees to avoid the three-game sweep.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET.

The Atlanta Braves opened the 2021 season with a three-game series at Philadelphia against the Phillies. The Braves are looking for a FOURTH NL East title (last season led the Dodgers 3-1 in the NLCS before losing THREE in a row), while Philadelphia opened the season seeking its first winning season since 2011, with hopes of ending a NINE-year postseason drought. The Phils swept the Braves 3-0 in the season's opening series for both teams, holding the Braves to just THREE runs. The Braves fell to 0-4 with a 6-5 Tuesday loss at Washington but then swept a Wednesday doubleheader (again, 7-inning games this season) by beating the Nats 7-6 and 2-0. As for the Phillies, they took two of three from the Mets and visited  Atlanta for this three-game series at 5-1.

Friday's contest marked Philly's first road game of the season and was also the Braves' first home game. The starters were Zach Wheeler and Charlie Morton, who squared off against each other last Saturday in Philadelphia. Wheeler out-pitched Morton in that 4-0 Philly win, throwing seven shutout innings (allowed just ONE hit) with a 10-0 KW ratio. Morton pitched six innings, allowing three ERs on six hits in five innings. However, Morton and the Braves turned the tables last night, winning 8-1. Morton allowed just ONE run in six innings, while Wheeler allowed three runs in 4.2 innings plus Philly's bullpen allowed FIVE runs in 3.1 innings.

The pitching matchup for Saturday is Zach Eflin (0-0, 1.29 ERA) of Philadelphia and Ian Anderson (0-0, 1.80) for Atlanta, the same pair who dueled last Sunday. Eflin made 10 starts last season and went 4-2 with a 3.97 ERA, striking out 70 and walking only 15 in 59 innings. In two starts against the Braves in 2020, Eflin was 2-0 with a 2.92 ERA, striking out 14 in 12.1 innings. He was excellent last Sunday vs the Braves, allowing just four hits and one ER in seven innings (8-1 KW ratio). Anderson made six starts as a rookie in 2020 and went 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA, striking out 41 and walking only 14 in 32.1 innings (1.08 WHIP). He countered Eflin last Sunday by allowing four hits and one ER over five innings (7-2 KW ratio).

I had Morton and Atlanta over Wheeler and Philly in last night's quick "re-hook." I'm back again with the very same set-up here. Anderson also made four playoff starts in 2020, allowing just two ERs on 11 hits over 18.2 innings (0.96 ERA) with a KW ratio of 24-10 (1.13 WHIP) and an opponent's BA of average .172. This guy's the "real deal," while Eflin is 29-33 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.36 ERA in his 90 career appearances (85 starts). Want more? After last night's win, Atlanta is a MONEY-MAKING 54-21 in its last 75 games as a home favorite (72%). Second verse, same as the first.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the NY Yankees at 1:10 ET.

It's not Red Sox/ Yankees but the Rays/Yankees rivalry is gaining momentum quickly. Tampa Bay won the AL East by SEVEN games over New York in 2020 and then eliminated the Yankees in the ALDS by edging the Yankees 2-1 in the deciding Game 5 of the ALDS. Both teams enter Saturday's contest 3-4, after the Rays pounded the Yankees 10-5 10-5 in Tampa Bay's 2021 home opener on Friday afternoon. Tropicana Field's domed stadium had 9,021 fans in attendance for the unveiling of the two banners representing the clinching of the AL East Division and the AL pennant.

Getting the ball for the middle contest of this three-game series will be New York's Domingo German (0-1, 9.00) and Tampa Bay's Chris Archer (0-1, 13.50), German was 18-4 for the Yankees when he was placed on administrative leave by MLB pending an investigation of suspected domestic violence on September 19, 2019. It was confirmed on Sep 25 that he would not be eligible to participate in any baseball action for the remainder of 2019, including the postseason, German made just ONE start in 2020. German will make just his SECOND start since Aug. 20, 2019 on Saturday, after being roughed for four runs (three earned) in two innings of relief last Saturday.

Chris Archer was considered one of the stars of Tampa Bay's rotation from 2013 through 2018 but he was clearly overrated (see his stats during that time, if you don't believe me). He was traded to Pitts during the 2018 season and went 3-3 with a 4.30 ERA. he then imploded in 2019, going 3-9 with a 5.19 ERA and 1,41 WHIP in s 23 starts (Pirates were 8-15), Archer missed all of 202 with a health issue but signed a one-year, $6.5 million contract with the Tampa Bay Rays on Feb 2, 20201. Archer lasted just TWO innings in his 2021 debut at Miami on April 4), allowing four runs (three earned).

My belief is that Archer is 'done,' so I'll back the Yankees to bounce back from Friday's shellacking. I'm giving German the benefit of the doubt, remembering his 18-4 season in 2019, when he had a MLB-best .818 winning percentage (note: Yanks won BOTH of his 2019 starts vs Tampa Bay).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL East) is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET.

The Atlanta Braves opened the 2021 season with a three-game series at Philadelphia against the Phillies. The Braves are looking for a FOURTH NL East title (last season led the Dodgers 3-1 in the NLCS before losing THREE in a row), while Philadelphia opened the season seeking its first winning season since 2011, with hopes of ending a NINE-year postseason drought. The Phils swept the Braves 3-0 in the season's opening series for both teams, holding the Braves to just THREE runs.

Braves fell to 0-4 with a 6-5 Tuesday loss at Washington but then swept a Wednesday doubleheader (again, 7-inning games this season) by beating the Nats 7-6 and 2-0. As for the Phillies, they took two of three from the Mets and head to Atlanta for this three-game series at 5-1 (both teams had Thursday off). Tonight's contest marks Philly's first road game of the season and it's also the Braves' first home game. The starters are Zach Wheeler  and Charlie Morton, who squared off against each other last Saturday in Philadelphia.

Wheeler out-pitched Morton in that 4-0 Philly win, throwing seven shutout innings (allowed just ONE hit) with a 10-0 KW ratio. Morton pitched six innings, allowing three ERs on six hits in five innings. In this quick pitching 're-hook,' I'm siding with Morton and the Braves. The Braves signed Morton to a one-year contract and hope that Morton can deliver like he did for Houston (14-7 and 15-3 in 2017 and 2018) and for Tampa Bay, when he went 16-6 in 2019. Moston was just 2-2 in nine starts in 2020 but he then led the Rays to wins in his first three playoff starts, allowing just one ER over 15.2 IP (0.57 ERA), before losing Game 3 of the World Series.

The Atlanta bats have been relatively quiet so far but in 21 home games at night vs righties last season, averaged 7.1 RPG. Atlanta is also a MONEY-MAKING 53-21 in its last 74 games as a home favorite. Expect Morton and Atlanta to prevail in this first game of the series, after their opening series in Philly went so poorly.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL West) is on the Col Rockies at 3:10 ET.

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies sure got no favors from the scheduling 'gods,' who sent the D'backs to San Diego to open against the Padres, while the Rockies opened with a four-game home series against the defending world champion Dodgers. Both teams lost THREE of their four respective games then had Monday off, before opening a three-game series at Coors Field on Tuesday. The D'backs took Tuesday's game 10-8 in 13 innings, before the Rockies won 8-0 on Wednesday.

Taking the mound for Thursday's rubber game of this three-game series will be Arizona's Merrill Kelly (0-1, 6.75 ERA) and Colorado's Jon Gray (0-0, 1.80 ERA). Kelly (32 years old) is in his third major-league season after a lengthy stint in South Korean baseball. He made his major-league debut in 2019, finishing 13-14 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 32 starts as a rookie for the Diamondbacks. He was limited to five starts in 2020, going 3-2 with a 2.59 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. He struggled in his 2021 season debut, lasting just four innings (made 94 pitches!) while giving up three runs on five hits and three walks.

Jon Gray has had an up-and-down career with the Rockies (45-37 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.34 WHIP entering 2021), showing signs of being an ace and at other times searching for consistency. However, Gray pitched very well in his first start Saturday against the Dodgers. He left after facing one batter in the sixth, having shut out the defending champs through five innings, but full-body cramps forced him out of a game (Colorado was leading 2-0 at the time). 

Neither pitcher has had any success against the team they are facing in this one but note that while both Arizona and Colorado are 2-4, the D'backs have been outscored 36-22 (-14), the Rockies have scored 37 runs while allowing 36 (+1). Arizona was just 9-21 on the road in 2020, averaging a measly 3.8 RPG. The D-backs have opened 2-4 on the road in 2021 and are averaging 3.7 RPG, despite scoring 10 runs on Tuesday (other five games have seen them average 2.4 RPG). Colorado was not dominant at Coors Field last season, going just 12-18 but the Rockies did average 5.1 RPG in their home park. Colorado has played all six of its games this season at Coors, averaging 6.2 RPG with 11 HRs. Colorado gets the "W" and picks up the series win.

Good luck...Larry

 My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Chi Cubs at 2:20 ET.

The 2-3 Brewers and 3-2 Cubs meet this afternoon at Wrigley Field for the rubber-game of their three-game series. The Cubs won two of three from Pittsburgh to open the season and then beat the Brewers 5-3 on Monday, before the Brewers bounced back with a 4-0 shutout win on Tuesday. That win snapped a three-game Milwaukee slide, which had won Opening Day at Minnesota, before dropping the last two of that series and the first game at Wrigley on Monday.

Today's pitching matchup features an Opening Day "reset" for Brandon Woodruff of Milwaukee and Kyle Hendricks Chicago, six days after each started the season for their respective teams. Neither staff ace pitched well, as Woodruff lasted just four innings, giving up three early runs as Milwaukee fell into a 3-1 hole before rallying for a 6-5 victory in 10 innings. Hendricks had an even shorter opener than Woodruff, lasting just THREE innings while giving up three runs on four hits with three walks and four strikeouts.

Woodruff made 13 starts last season, going 3-5 with a 3.05 ERA and 0.99 WHIP (Brewers were 6-7 in his starts). However, he was 11-3 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 22 starts in 2019, with the Brewers going a MONEY-MAKING 18-4. Woodruff is 0-1 with a 4.65 ERA in eight career appearances against the Cubs (six starts / team is 4-2). Hendricks did not have a start shorter than 4.1 innings last season, while posting a 2.88 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 12 starts last season (he was 6-5 and the Cubs 7-5). He's faced the Brewers 23 times in his career (most vs any opponent) and while he's 9-6 (Cubs are 13-10), he's posted a 2.84 ERA over 136.1 innings (that's some pretty good pitching!).

I expect a BIG bounce-back effort here by Hendricks, who had a 1,85 ERA (.195 BAA) at Wrigley last season, after posting a 2.04 home ERA (.206 BAA) in 2019. Cubs Win! Cubs Win!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Chi White Sox at 10:10 ET

The Chicago White Sox made the playoffs for the first time since 2008 last year, ending a run of SEVEN consecutive losing seasons, In 2021, the White Sox are hoping to bring home their first World Series championship since 2005 and only the second since 1917. However, Chicago opened the season with a four-game series in Anaheim against the Angels and lost THREE of four (more later). Seattle went 89-73 in 2018 but followed by falling to 68-94 in 2019 and then went 27-33 in last season's 60-game schedule. The two teams opened a three-games series in Seattle last night with Chicago winning 6-0, as Yasmani Grandal led the way with a HR and three RBI.

Taking the mound tonight will be Chicago's Lucas Giolito (0-0, 3.38 ERA) and Seattle's James Paxton, who will make his 2021 season debut. Giolito is considered Chicago's ace. He was 14-9 (3.41 ERA / 1.06 WHIP) in 2019 for a White Sox team that was just 72-89. He was a more modest 4-3 in 12 stars last season in 12 stars (Chicago was 7-5) but again posted a solid ERA (3.48) and an excellent WHIP (1.04). He made one playoff start last season, allowing just two hits and one ER over seven innings with an 8-1 KW ratio. Giolito got a no-decision in his 2021 season opener but allowed two ERs on two hits with an 8-2 KW ratio in 5.1 innings.

The 32-year-old Paxton returned to the Mariners as a free agent this February after spending the past two seasons with the New York Yankees. He began his career with Seattle, where he notched 41 victories across his first six seasons from 2013-18. "It's great to have him back," Mariners manager Scott Servais said. "I know what he's going to mean to our ballclub this year. We've got to keep him healthy, keep him going, making every turn. You're going to look up at the end of the year and he's going to have a big season. There's no question in my mind." I tend to disagree. I've always believed that Paxton is overrated  and even in his two best seasons with Seattle (12-5 in 2017 and 11-6 in 2018), allowed more hits 364 than innings pitched (296.1). When he went 15-6 for the Yankees in 2019, he allowed 186 hits in 150.2 innings. He made just five starts for New York last season with an ERA of 6.64 and a WHIP of 1.48.

For those of you who were NOT with me last night on the White Sox, I give you a heads up! The fact that Paxton is a lefty does NOT bode well for him or Seattle. The White Sox went 14-0 vs left-handed starters in 2020, averaging 7.1 RPG. The White Sox did drop THREE of four games vs the Angels to open the season but looking closer, you'll find that the three losses came against right-handed starters (scored only 10 combined runs) while the "W" was against the left-handed Heaney, a 12-8 Chicago win. Last night vs another lefty (Sheffield), the White Sox won 6-0. Why 'get off this train' now?

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Col Rockies at 8:40 ET.

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies sure got no favors from the scheduling 'gods,' who sent the D'backs to San Diego to open against the Padres, while the Rockies were tasked to open with a four-game home set vs the defending world champion Dodgers. Both teams lost THREE of their respective games, Arizona opening with a win before losing three in a row, while the Rockies lost the first three, before salvaging the final game of the series. Both teams had Monday off and tonight opened a three-game series at Coors Field.

Luke Weaver (1-9, 6.58 ERA in 2020) is making his first start of the season for Arizona, while Colorado counters with German Marquez (0-0, 2.25 ERA in 2021). Weaver was just plain AWFUL in 2020, as the D'backs lost 10 of his 12 starts and his 'sorry' ERA was matched by his 1.56 WHIP. Meanwhile, Marquez went 11-7, 14-11 and 12-5 for the Rockies from 2017-19, before going 4-6 with a 3.75 ERA in 13 starts (Rockies were 7-6).

Colorado was not dominant at Coors Field last season, going just 12-18 but the Rockies did average 5.1 RPG in their home park. In Weaver, they get to face a pitcher coming off a MISERABLE 2020 season (see above) and one who has posted a 7.40 ERA in six career games against the Rockies, including five starts. Weaver will take the mound for an Arizona team that was just 9-21 on the road in 2020, averaging a measly 3.8 RPG. As noted, the D-backs have opened 1-3 on the road in 2021 and had scored just a total of just five runs in their first three games, before scoring seven times in a one-run loss on Sunday. That still leaves them averaging just 3.0 RPG. Blowout Alert!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Chi White Sox at 10:00 ET.

The Chicago White Sox made the playoffs for the first time since 2008 last year, ending a run of SEVEN consecutive losing seasons, In 2021, the White Sox are hoping to bring home their first World Series championship since 2005 and only the second since 1917. However, Chicago opened the season with a four-game series in Anaheim against the Angels and lost THREE of four (more later). The White Sox head to Seattle for a three-game series beginning Monday to face a Mariners team that opened by taking TWO of three from the Giants. Seattle went 89-73 in 2018 but followed by falling to 68-94 in 2019 and then went 27-33 in last season's 60-game schedule.

Taking the mound tonight will be a pair of lefties, Chicago's Carlos Rodon and Seattle's Justus Sheffield. Chicago had high hopes for Rodon (third overall pick in the 2014 draft) when the White Sox named him their Opening Day starter in 2019. However, he has made just 11 appearances over the past two seasons, mainly because of Tommy John surgery in May 2019 on his left elbow. He was non-tendered during the offseason before re-signing with the White Sox on Feb 1. He then earned a spot in the rotation by posting a 1.32 ERA in four spring training appearances (13.2 innings in which he also posted a 16-1 KW ratio). Sheffield was 4-3 with a 3.58 ERA in 10 starts last season (team was 6-4, winning his final four starts of 2020). The jury is still out on Sheffield, as entering last season he had made just 11 MLB appearances (seven stars), posting a 6.70 ERA. His only previous start against the White Sox came in 2019, when he allowed six runs on seven hits in 4.1 innings.

The fact that Sheffield is a lefty does NOT bode well for him or Seattle. The White Sox went 14-0 vs left-handed starters in 2020, averaging 7.1 RPG. I note at the top that the White Sox dropped THREE of four games vs the Angels but looking closer, you'll find that the three losses came against right-handed starters (scored only 10 runs) while the "W" was against the left-handed Heaney, a 12-8 Chicago win. Adding to that "perfect" stat, is that Rodon has made three career starts vs Seattle, going 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA (Chicago is 3-0). LOTS to like about Chicago in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Pitching Mismatch of the Month (AL West) is on the LA Angels at 9:38 ET.

The Houston Astros won 100-plus games each season from 2017-2019 (311-175, .649), going to two World Series and winning one (2017). However, the Astros were exposed before the start of the 2020 season with a "sign-stealing" scandal that cost the team's GM and manager their jobs. Of course, COVID delayed the start of last season until late July and with a shortened 60-game schedule and no fans, the scandal seemed to fade into the background behind greater concern. The Astros fell to 29-31 in 2020, having to rely on a bevy of talented young pitchers to carry them in a season when ace Justin Verlander made just one start. However, the Astros just 'ran over' the A's in Oakland to open the 2021 season, sweeping the four-game series against the defending AL West champs while outscoring them 35-9, becoming just the fourth team in MLB history to score at least eight runs in its first four games to start the season.

Houston heads to Anaheim for a brief to-game series against the Angels. The Angels opened the 2021 season HOPING to end a streak of FIVE straight losing seasons (the franchise's longest skid since the 1970s) and SIX consecutive non-playoff campaigns. Most MLB fans would like to see Mike Trout finally get his FIRST playoff victory. He's earned the title of "MLB's best player" but he's been part of just ONE postseason series, with the Angels getting swept 3-0. However, after four games, the Angels are 'smiling.' LA  took THREE of four from the White Sox, who were a 'sexy' pick to win this year's AL pennant.

Monday's pitching matchup features Houston's Luis Garcia and LA's Jose Quintana. Garcia will be making just his SECOND career major league start. Garcia made five appearances last season, four out of the bullpen, including one against the Angels in which he gave up one run in 4.1 innings. As for Quintana, he's making his Angels debut after signing as a free agent after nine years in Chicago, 5 1/2 with the White Sox and 3 1/2 with the Cubs. Quintana was limited to just four games (one start) and 10 innings last season because of a freak injury when he cut his thumb while washing dishes. He ultimately had surgery on the thumb and missed two months. Quintana pitched for Joe Maddon in 2017-19 with the Cubs. "He's a guy who normally eats up innings," Maddon said. "He has a repeatable, compact delivery and a nice arm stroke. His success, to me, relies on good game planning. He just needs a little direction on how to attack people ... how to use the really good stuff he already has."

Garcia is at best an "unknown quantity," while Quintana has been an effective starter for parts of his MLB career. It sure doesn't hurt that in his SEVEN career starts vs Houston he owns a 2,53 ERA with his teams having gone 6-1. Make that 7-1 after tonight.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Month (AL West) is on the Oak A's at 4:07 ET.

The Houston Astros won 100-plus each season from 2017-2019 (311-175, .649), going to two World Series and winning one (2017). However, the Astros were exposed before the start of the 2020 season with a "sign-stealing" scandal that cost the team's GM and manager their jobs. Of course, COVID delayed the start of last season until late July and with a shortened 60-game schedule and no fans, the scandal seemed to fade into the background behind greater concern. The Astros fell to 29-31 in 2020, having to rely on a bevy of talented young pitchers to carry them in a season when ace Justin Verlander made just one start. The Oakland A's won the West in 2020 with a 36-24 record (tied for the AL's second-best), earning their first division title in seven years.

The A's won SEVEN of the teams 10 regular season meetings in 2020 but then the Astros won the ALDS 3-1. The 2021 schedule has the teams opening with four games in Oakland While Oakland fans wasted no time on Opening Day reminding the Houston Astros of their 2017 cheating scandal, the Astros have done all their 'talking' on the playing field, taking the first THREE of this four-game series in dominating fashion.8-1, 9-5 and 9-1, out-hitting the A's 36-17. Adding insult to injury, Houston's bullpen has limited the A's to three ERs on nine hits in 12.1 innings (2.19 ERA), while the Astros have 'lit up' Oakland's relief staff to the tune of 17 hits and 13 ERs in 12.1 innings (9.49 ERA).

So why take the A's here? First off, I like Sean Manaea (3.27 ERA in 13 career regular-season starts against the Astros) over Jose Urquidy (just 12 MLB starts the last two regular seasons) plus will note that Houston was just 0-4 in its only four away day games vs lefties last season, averaging just 2.0 RPG. Obviously, that's a small sample size but what isn't is that the A's were 22-10 (.688) at home last season, in line with the team's three-year home record of 130-70 (.650). A's avoid the dreaded four-game home sweep here!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Bounce-Back Game of the Week is on the Atl Braves at 1:05 ET.

It's true that the rest of the NL East has improved themselves entering 2021 but the Braves are still favored to win their FOURTH straight NL East title. The Braves and Phils split 10 games last season but the Phillies prevailed 3-2 on Opening Day at Citizens Bank Park (Braves were held to just seven hits)  and after taking Friday off, the Phils bested the Braves again 4-0 on Saturday (braves were held to just ONE hit). The Phillies have limited the Braves to a combined TWO runs and eight hits with 24 strikeouts in back-to-back wins. What's going on? 

Atlanta looks to 'stop the bleeding' (more accurately, the Braves need to HIT!) by sending Ian Anderson to the mound to face Zach Eflin. Eflin made 10 starts last season and went 4-2 with a 3.97 ERA, striking out 70 and walking only 15 in 59 innings. In two starts against the Braves in 2020, Eflin was 2-0 with a 2.92 ERA, striking out 14 in 12.1 innings. Anderson made six starts as a rookie in 2020 and went 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA, striking out 41 and walking only 14 in 32.1 innings (1.08 WHIP). 

The Braves scored 348 runs last season (5.80 RPG), just ONE run less than the world champion Dodgers scored. BTW...The Braves led the Dodgers 3-1 in the NLCS, before LA came back to win the next three. Speaking of the postseason, Anderson made four playoff starts, allowing just two ERs on 11 hits over 18.2 innings (0.96 ERA) with a kW ratio of 24-10 (1.13 WHIP) and an opponent's BA of average .172. Looking to avoid a sweep, Atlanta has just the pitcher to lead the way, Meanwhile, expect MVP Freddie Freeman (0-for-7) and Marcell Ozuna (0-for-3 with three strikeouts on Saturday) bats to finally 'wake up!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM of the Month is on the Chi White Sox at 9:07 ET.

The Angels scored two runs in the bottom of the eighth inning Thursday night, turning a 3-2 deficit into a 4-3 win over the White Sox. However, Chicago bounced back Friday with a 12-8 win, pounding out 13 hits (including Jose Abreu's grand slam), while securing the "W" with a five-run 9th (led 7-6 after eight innings). Saturday's pitching matchup features Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb. Lynn came to the White Sox in a trade from the Texas Rangers for pitcher Dane Dunning and a minor leaguer. The 33-year-old was a workhorse last season, leading the majors in starts (13) and innings pitched (84). Many will remember him as an integral part of a St Louis rotation when he won 71 games over a five-year stretch from 2012-17 (he missed all of 2016 with an injury).

Alex Cobb will make his debut with the Los Angeles Angels, after being acquired in an offseason trade with the Baltimore Orioles. Cobb was just awful in his last three seasons in Baltimore, going 7-22 with a 5.10 ERA in 41 starts. However, that's in stark contrast to his stay with Tampa Bay, when he went 48-35 with a 3.50 ERA in 115 starts. Cobb played for Maddon in the first four years of his career (2011-14) and had the best season of his career in 2013, when he went 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 22 starts. The Angels are hoping a reunion with manager Joe Maddon will help the right-hander rediscover the success he had early in his career.

"Hope" is LA's theme here in 2021. The Angels enter the 2021 season HOPING to end a streak of FIVE straight losing seasons (the franchise's longest skid since the 1970s) and SIX consecutive non-playoff campaigns. Most MLB fans would like to see Mike Trout finally get his FIRST playoff victory. He's earned the title of "MLB's best player" but he's been part of just ONE postseason series, with the Angels getting swept 3-0. If only wishing could make things true!

The Chicago White Sox did much more than 'hope' in 2020, as they made the playoffs for the first time since 2008 and ended a run of SEVEN consecutive losing seasons by going 35-25. The 2021 version is improved from last season and expectations are high (and well-deserved), as the White Sox look to bring home their first World Series championship since 2005 and only the second since 1917. I'm a "big fan" of Lynn, who made  three starts against the Angels in 2020, going 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 17-5 KW ratio. It's Lynn over Cobb here.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Atl Braves at 4:05 ET.

It's true that the rest of the NL East has improved themselves entering 2021 but the Braves are still favored to win their FOURTH straight NL East title. The Braves and Phils split 10 games last season and on Opening Day, Philadelphia shut down Atlanta's offense (Braves were held to just seven hits) at Citizens Bank Park in a 3-2 win. Taking the mound for Atlanta on Saturday will be Charlie Morton, while Philadelphia counters with Zack Wheeler.

The Braves signed Charlie Morton to a one-year contract and hope that Morton can deliver like he did for Houston and Tampa Bay in recent seasons. He's a 14-year vet (37 years old) and he's expected to help stabilize the staff until ace Mike Soroka returns and provide leadership to a young, talented rotation. Zack Wheeler was the prized free-agent signee for Philadelphia in the offseason prior to 2020 and he finished  4-2 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. The Phils went 6-2 in his first eight stars but were winless in his last three with Wheeler posting a 4.05 ERA.

The two pitchers had very different results this spring, as Morton did not allow a run in 10/1  innings during three appearances in the Grapefruit League, while Wheeler posted a 5.03 ERA in 19.2 innings. The Phillies fared poorly vs righthanders in 2020 (just 15-23 overall), while the Braves averaged 6.1 RPG vs righties over 48 games in 2020. I'm expecting Morton to help this Atlanta rotation and for the Braves' offense to bounce-back off a poor Opening Day effort.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner of the Month is on the Chi White Sox at 9:38 ET.

The LA Angels enter the 2021 season looking to end a streak of FIVE straight losing seasons (the franchise's longest skid since the 1970s) and SIX consecutive non-playoff campaigns. Most MLB fans would like to see Mike Trout finally get his FIRST playoff victory. He's earned the title of "MLB's best player" but he's been part of just ONE postseason series, with the Angels getting swept 3-0. The Angels opened the 2021 season last night with a 4-3 home win over the Chicago White Sox, who last year made the playoffs for the first time since 2008 and ended a run of SEVEN consecutive losing seasons, In 2021, the White Sox are hoping to bring home their first World Series championship since 2005 and only the second since 1917.

The Angels scored two runs in the bottom of the eighth inning last night, turning a 3-2 deficit into a 4-3 win. Taking the mound tonight in the second contest of this four-game series will be a pair of lefties, Chicago's Dallas Keuchel (6-2, 1.99 ERA in 2020) and LA's Andrew Heaney (4-3, 4.66 ERA). Keuchel has had more success against the Angels than any other team, going 12-2 with a 3.39 ERA in 17 career starts (teams 1are 13-4). As for Heaney, he is 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA in five career starts vs the White Sox (teams are 4-1) but in his last two meetings with Chicago (both in 2019), he allowed 10 hits and seven ERs over 13 innings (4.85 ERA).

However, here's the 'clincher.' The Angels were just 2-5 at home vs lefties in 2020 (1-4 in night games), averaging 3.4 PG. Meanwhile, the White Sox were  PERCET 14-0 (averaging 7.1 RPG) in 2020. Keuchel over Heaney, who has dealt with injuries and inconsistency since coming from Miami in a three-team trade before the 2015 season, just seems to "make sense!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Sea Mariners at 10:10 ET.

The Giants finished just ONE game out of a spot in the expanded playoffs during Gabe Kapler's first season after he replaced the retiring Bruce Bochy, who retired. San Francisco didn't make any major moves this offseason but will get Buster Posey back behind the plate after he opted out of the 2020 season. San Francisco re-signed Kevin Gausman (more in a bit) and added Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani and Aaron Sanchez to bolster the rotation. Kinda brings back memories of Glavive, Maddux and Smoltz.

As for the Mariners, they believe they are on the cusp of playoff contention. Kyle Lewis is Seattle's first Rookie of the Year since Ichiro Suzuki in 2001 and combined with Gold Glove winners JP Crawford and Evan White, gives the Mariners a solid defensive foundation. The starting rotation has potential if Jim Paxton can rediscover his past form and if the Mariners may have a star in rookie Chris Flexen. 

Giants will start right-hander Kevin Gausman (3-3, 3.62 ERA in 2020), while Seattle counters with left-hander Marco Gonzales (7-2, 3.11 ERA). As noted, the Giants re-signed Gausman and one wonders what they expect from him. He's made 203 big league appearances (164 starts) with a 50-66 record and 4.31 ERA. He's NEVER had a winning season in eight years. Meanwhile, Gonzales' 7-2 record in 2020, followed a 13-19 season in 2019. That gives him a .645 winning percentage (20-11) for a Seattle team that's gone just 95-127 (.428) in that span.

I have NO faith in Gausman, while I believe Gonzales will win 15-plus games for the improved Mariners in 2021. Note that the Giants were just 5-1 vs lefties in road night games last season. Seattle wins "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My MLB 10* Opening Day Game of the Year is on the Oakland A's at 10:07 ET.

The Houston Astros won 100-plus each season from 2017-2019 (311-175, .649), going to two World Series and winning one (2017). However, the Astros were exposed before the start of the 2020 season with a "sign-stealing" scandal that cost the team's GM and manager their jobs. Of course, COVID delayed the start of last season until late July and with a  shortened 60-game schedule and no fans, the scandal seemed to fade into the background behind greater concern. The Astros fell to 21-39 in 2020, having to rely on a bevy of talented young pitchers to carry them in a season when ace Justin Verlander made just one start. Houston lost George Springer to the Blue Jays (he signed a $150 million, six-year contract) but Altuve, Bregman and Correa are still around. Houston opens the season in Oakland, as it seeks to win its fourth AL West title in five seasons.

The Oakland A's won the West with a 36-24 record (tied for the AL's second-best), earning their first division title in seven years. The A's also lost a key player to the Blue Jays, as SS Semien (33 HRs and 92 RBI in 2019) signed a one-year deal in Toronto. Speaking of young pitchers, Oakland's rotation is anchored by Montas, Manaea and Luzardo. Oakland also signed Trevor Rosenthal to take over as closer, hoping he returns to the form which saw him earn 93 saves for StL in 2014 and 2015.

Houston ended Oakland's season with a 3-1 series win in the ALDS (Played in Los Angeles) but EIGHT of the teams' 10 regular-seasons meetings last year were held in Oakland. The A's took seven of the 10 en route to the AL West regular-season crown, as the Astros finished SEVEN games back. Note that all three Astros wins were in seven-inning affairs, as the teams played two doubleheaders, one in each city. Zack Greinke (3-3, 4.03 in 2020) and Chris Bassitt (5-2, 2.29 ERA) get the Opening Day start. Greinke is 9-3 (3.16 ERA) in 18 career starts vs Oakland but his teams are just a modest 10-8. Bassitt has made nine career stats vs Houston, going 3-2 with a 3.91 ERA (team is 5-4).

Looking at just last season, Greinke had a good first start against Oakland (6 IP and zero ERs in a no-decision) but in his last three, allowed 11 ERs over 15.2 innings for a 6.32 ERA. Bassitt made four starts vs Houston, going 1-1 (team was 2-2) but in the two wins (both in Oakland), he allowed just one ER in 14 innings. The A's outscored the Astros 38-25 in 10 regular season meetings but then faltered in the playoffs. Drawing the Astros to open the 2021 season has to have the A's poised to exact some revenge and jump start the new season. The A's were 22-10 (.688) at home last season, in line with the team's three-year home record of 130-70 (.650).  The fact that the A's will be able to have fans at the Coliseum, with state rules allowing 20% capacity to start the season, can't hurt.

Good luck...Larry 

My 9* Afternoon Delight is on the Atl Braves at 3:05 ET.

It's fair to say that the rest of the NL East has improved themselves entering 2021 but aren't the Braves still favored to win their FOURTH straight NL East title? Atlanta bolstered its pitching rotation by signing veterans Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly to one-year contracts and when Mike Soroka (a 13-game winner and All-Star in 2019) is fully recovered, the rotation could be one of baseball's best. Max Fried was fifth in NL Cy Young Award balloting, while Anderson also has the makings of a future ace after a stellar rookie season. The offense is led by MVP Freeman and Ozuna providing a powerful 1-2 punch in the middle of the lineup. Meanwhile, the Phillies are seeking their first winning season since 2011, with hopes of ending a NINE-year postseason drought. Everyone returns everyone in the starting lineup and Nola and Wheeler are a formidable 1-2 punch atop the rotation but overall, the rotation has little depth. Then there's the team's bullpen, dismal bullpen and its 7.06 ERA. Many additions have been made in that regard and things have to get better, as it couldn't get worse.

Max Fried is making his first Opening Day start for Atlanta, coming off a 2020 season in which he went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 11 starts (Braves were 10-1). Aaron Nola will make his FOURTH consecutive Opening Day start for the host Philadelphia Phillies, the most by a Philadelphia pitcher since Hall of Famer Steve Carlton took the mound for 10 openers in a row from 1977-86. Nola was 7-5 with a 3.28 ERA in 12 starts in 202 (Phils were 5-7 in his starts). Fried has made five career starts vs Philly and is 3-1 but owns a 5.40 ERA (Braves are 4-1). However, note that he made two starts against them last season, allowing just one ER in 10 innings for an 0.90 ERA. He beat Nola 11-2 in one of those starts, as Nola allowed four ERs in just 2.3 innings. Nola is 11-6 (3.05 ERA) in 20 career starts vs the Braves, with Phily going 12-8.

The Braves came within one win of the World Series, taking a 3-1 lead in the NLCS before the Dodgers rallied to win the last three games. That bitter disappointment has only strengthened the Braves' resolve this season and I'm backing them here on Opening Day behind Fried, who started 16 games for Atlanta last season (including the playoffs), with the Braves going 14-2!!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the TB Rays at 8:08 ET.

Following Tampa Bay's improbable 8-7 Game 4 win, the Dodgers took Game 5 by a 4-2 score and now stand ONE win away from the team's first World Series title since 1988. LA staked Clayton to a quick 3-0 lead scored twice in the third to close within a run. Then came the game-turning bottom of the 4th. The Rays had first and third with no outs but Kershaw got a pop up and a strike out. Then, instead of relying on a two-out hit from Kevin Kiermaier, Margot broke for home. Kershaw stepped off the rubber and got the ball to Barnes just in time. The Dodgers extended the lead to 4-2 in the 5th and three LA relievers pitched 3.1 scoreless innings to seal the win.

The Game 6 pitching matchup is a rematch of Game 2, when Blake Snell takes on Tony Gonsolin. The Rays staked Snell to a 5-0 lead and he didn't allow a hit through four innings, while striking out two Dodgers in each of the first four innings. However, Snell's dreams of a no-hitter ended in the 5th. He walked Kiké Hernandez with two out and served up a two-run HR to Chris Taylor. A walk to Mookie Betts and a single by Corey Seager ended Snell's night. However, four relievers held off the Dodgers, allowing two runs over 4.1 innings, as Tampa Bay evened the Series at one-all with a 6-4 victory. Snell won the Cy Young in 2018 but was a modest 4-2 in the 2020 regular season with a 3.24 ERA over 11 starts (Rays were 7-4). In five starts during this postseason, Snell is 2-2 with a 3.33 ERA (Rays are 3-2)

I found the choice of starting Gonsolin in Game 2 a little strange. He was 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA in nine games (eight starts / team was 5-3) during the regular season. However, in his two outings this postseason against Atlanta, he'd allowed SEVEN earned runs in 6.1 innings for a 9.95 playoff ERA. Gonsolin threw just 41 pitches in a Game 7 (allowed two runs in two innings) in which the Dodgers won 4-3 to complete their comeback from being in an 0-3 'hole' against the Braves. he was pitching on just two days' rest in Game 2 of the World Series and got just four outs, throwing 29 pitches while allowing a solo HR and one walk. He hasn't pitched since, so he takes the mound well-rested but having allowed eight ERs over just 7.2 postseason innings in 2020, on six hits with almost as many walks (7) as strikeouts (9). His ERA is 9.39 and his WHIP is 1.70.

Up 3-2, LA is a strong favorite to the series, with emerging ace Walker Buehler waiting to pitch on full rest in Game 7. However, I'll discuss a Buehler/Morton rematch on Wednesday, AFTER the Rays win Game 6 on Tuesday.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MLB Game of the Year is on the TB Rays at 8:08 ET.

The 2020 World Series got underway Tuesday night and the Dodgers looked every bit the part of a team with MLB's best record in this COVID-shortened season with an 8-3 victory. Three-time Cy Young award winner Clayton Kershaw shrugged off his rocky playoff history to give up just ONE run on two hits over six innings with only one walk and eight strikeouts. He retired 13 consecutive batters until Tampa Bay's Kevin Kiermaier hit a solo HR in the fifth. In contrast, the Ray's Tyler Glasnow allowed three hits and SIX walks (three would eventually score) in 4.1 innings of work in which he allowed SIX runs (all earned). Cody Bellinger gave the Dodgers an early lead with a two-run HR (two days after his go-ahead HR in Game 7 of the NLCS) and Mookie Betts hit his first postseason HR for the Dodgers in the sixth to open a 7-1 advantage. Betts, Muncy and Taylor each had two hits. Tampa Bay had just six hits, while LA struck out 10 Rays as opposed to allowing just ONE walk.

However, Game 2 told a very different tale, as Blake Snell took charge from the mound in the first four innings, while Brandon Lowe took charge at the plate. Lowe came in batting .083 (4-for-48) with one HR in his previous 13 postseason games but ended his slump in dramatic fashion. Lowe jump started the Rays' offense with a solo HR in the first inning off Tony Gonsolin, then hit a two-run shot in the fifth inning off Dustin May, as the Rays led 5-0 into the bottom of the 5th. Snell didn't allow a hit through four innings, while striking out two Dodgers in each of the first four innings. However, Snell's dreams of a no-hitter ended in the 5th. He walked Kiké Hernandez with two out and served up a two-run HR to Chris Taylor. A walk to Mookie Betts and a single by Corey Seager ended Snell's night. Four relievers held off the Dodgers, allowing two runs over 4.1 innings, as Tampa Bay evened the Series at one-all. The Rays had 10 hits, the first time they reached double digits since Game 3 of their ALDS against the New York Yankees, a single-digit-hit skid that had lasted 10 games. The Dodgers used SEVEN pitchers in the loss but the good news (for both pitching staffs) is that Thursday is an "off day."

Game 3 is set for Friday and it features the best pitching matchup of the series. We could see a rematch of this Buehler/Morton showdown if the World Series is extended to a Game 7. However, that's getting ahead of ourselves. Here's the 'dope' on LA's Buehler. He made 30 starts for LA in 2019, going 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .223 BAA. He only earned ONE win during the regular season (zero losses), as the Dodgers went 7-1 in his eight regular season starts, during which he was bothered in September by some finger issues. He ended the regular season with a 3.44 ERA, 0.95 WHIP (42-11 KW ratio) and an outstanding BAA of .178. However, his longest outing all season was just SIX innings. The Dodgers won both of his first two postseason starts but Buehler only finished FOUR innings in each outing. He squared off against Max Fried in Game 1 of the NLCS and allowed just one run in five innings but also surrendered five walks (LA lost 5-1, when the Braves scored FOUR times in the top of the 9th). He got a second chance against Fried and Atlanta in Game 6 and was excellent, pitching six scoreless innings with a 6-0 KW ratio, as the Dodgers sent the series to a Game 7 with a 3-1 victory. LA has won THREE of his four postseason starts with Buehler posting a 1.89 ERA.

Charlie Morton takes the mound for Tampa Bay and the Rays couldn't be happier that it's him on the mound with the series tied at one-all. Morton's career began back in 2008 with Atlanta but he was with Pittsburgh from 2009-15. In two of those seasons, he was just AWFUL, going 2-12 with a 7.57 ERA in 2010 and 6-12 with a 3.72 ERA in 2014. The Pirates traded Morton to the Philadelphia Phillies but his 2016 season came to an abrupt end on April 23, when he suffered a hamstring injury running to first base in a game against the Milwaukee Brewers. He was placed on the disabled list the next day and on April 27 the Phillies announced Morton would miss the rest of the 2016 season with a torn hamstring. Then, on November 16, 2016, Morton signed a two-year, $14 million contract with the Houston Astros. One would have to ask why? He joined the Astros for the 2017 season with a career record of just 46-71 (.400).

However, Morton turned his career around after signing with Houston, going 29-10 in 2017-18. That got him a two-year, $30 million deal with Tampa Bay and Morton went 16-6, 3.05 ERA in 2019 for the Rays. He made his second All Star team last year plus set career highs in wins (16), ERA (3.05), innings (194.2) and in strikeouts (240). He also led all major league pitchers in HRs/9 innings pitched, at 0.694. Morton was no 'great shakes' in 2020, going 2-2 with a 4.74 ERA in nine starts (team was 5-4). However, he's 3-0 in 2020's postseason, allowing 11 hits and two runs (one earned) over 15.2 innings for an 0.57 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 17-4 KW ratio. In fact, Morton has won all FIVE of his starts in the playoffs for Tampa Bay over the last two years while recording a minuscule 0.70 ERA. Morton pitched 5.2 scoreless innings in Tampa Bay's Game 7 win over Houston, an effort makes him 3-0 in Game 7 appearances, having beaten the Yankees as a starter in the 2017 ALCS and the Dodgers in relief in the 2017 World Series. In 14.2 career Game 7 innings, he's given up just one run and six hits. This is NOT a Game 7 but I'm "all over" Morton and the Rays in this Game 3. 

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the TB Rays at 8:08 ET.

The 2020 World Series got underway last night and the Dodgers looked every bit the part of the team with MLB's best record in this COVID-shortened season. Three-time Cy Young award winner Clayton Kershaw shrugged off his rocky playoff history to give up just ONE run on two hits over six innings with only one walk and eight strikeouts. He retired 13 consecutive batters until Tampa Bay's Kevin Kiermaier hit a solo HR in the fifth. In contrast, the Ray's Tyler Glasnow allowed three hits and SIX walks (three would eventually score) in 4.1 innings of work in which he allowed SIX runs (all earned). Cody Bellinger gave the Dodgers an early lead with a two-run HR (two days after his go-ahead HR in Game 7 of the NLCS) and Mookie Betts hit his first postseason HR for the Dodgers in the sixth to open a 7-1 advantage. Betts, Muncy and Taylor each had two hits. Tampa Bay had just six hits, while LA struck out 10 Rays as opposed to allowing just ONE walk.

Tampa Bay turns to Blake Snell, who won a Cy Young of his own in 2018, in Game 2, while the Dodgers will hand the ball to Tony Gonsolin. Snell was 4-2 in the 2020 regular season with a 3.24 ERA over 11 starts (Rays were). In four starts during this postseason, Snell is 2-2 with a 3.20 ERA. He enters off an outing in Game 6 of the ALCS in which he gave up two runs on three hits with four walks in four-plus innings and was CLEARLY unhappy about being removed. The Houston Astros won that game 7-4 but the Rays rebounded to win Game 7. The choice of Gonsolin seems a little strange to me. However, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said after the World Series opener, "We just feel like we like him in this spot," Roberts referenced Gonsolin's recent bullpen experience, seemingly suggesting the 26-year old could be more of an opener Wednesday, pitching the first inning and perhaps a bit more if he is efficient. The Dodgers would turn it over to the bullpen from there. Alrighty then. 

Here's what I counter with. Yes, Gonsolin was 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA in nine games (eight starts / team was 5-3) during the regular season. However, in his two outings this postseason against Atlanta, he's allowed SEVEN earned runs in 6.1 innings for a 9.95 playoff ERA. Gonsolin just threw 41 pitches Sunday in a Game 7 (allowed two runs in two innings) in which the Dodgers won 4-3 to complete their comeback from being in an 0-3 'hole' against the Braves. Is it fair to say the Dodgers won, DESPITE Gonsolin's pitching? I think so and will back the resilient Rays here in Game 2.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game 1 Series Opener is on the TB Rays at 8:09 ET.

Both LCS went the full seven games, although each followed a different path. The Rays owned the AL's best regular season record (40-20) and looked every bit the part of the AL's No, 1 seed when they opened a 3-0 lead over the Houston Astros in the ALCS. However, the Astros, who were able to make the expanded 2020 postseason field by finishing second in the AL West despite a 29-31 record, did NOT go easily. Houston had won 100-plus games in each of the previous three seasons and the core of that lineup was still around. Houston won Games 4 and 5 by identical scores of 4-3, before forcing a Game 7 with a 7-4 win in Game 6. Houston entered Game 7 looking to join the 2004 Boston Red Sox as the only teams to comeback from an 0-3 'hole' and win a seven-game series. However, the Rays took Game 7 by the score of 4-2 on the strength of Charlie Morton's pitching (5.2 scoreless innings), Randy Arozarena's two-run HR and a solo HR and sac fly from Mike Zunino. Arozarena was named ALCS MVPa and getting back to Morton, he improved to 3-0 in Game 7 appearances, having beaten the Yankees as a starter in the 2017 ALCS and the Dodgers in relief in the 2017 World Series. In 14.2 career Game 7 innings, he's given up just one run and six hits.

The Dodgers owned MLB's best 60-game record this season (43-17) plus posted a plus-136 run differential that was 52 runs better than any other MLB team. It was 76 runs better than their NLCS opponent (Atlanta) but the Braves took a 3-1 series lead. LA fought back to win Game 5 (7-3) and Game 6 (3-1) setting up a winner-take-all Game 7 against Atlanta rookie Ian Anderson. Anderson made his MLB on August 26 and in six regular season starts, posted a 1.95 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and .172 BAA. He took the mound Sunday night having not allowed a SINGLE run in 15.2 postseason innings, with the Braves winning all three of his starts. As for LA, manager Dave Roberts didn't name a starter until late afternoon. It turned out to be Dustin May, who allowed one run in one inning. Gonsolin followed and allowed two runs in two innings but then Treinen, Graterol and Urias combined for six scoreless and HITLESS innings. Trailing 3-2 in the 6th, pinch-hitter Enrique Hernandez tied it with a solo HR and then Cody Bellinger hit a go-ahead HR in the seventh inning, which turned out to be the game-winner. Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager was named NLCS MVP with five HRs and 11 RBI in the seven games. 

So in the end, the team with the best record in the AL and the team with the best record in the NL, will meet in the 2020 World Series. Just the way it should be, right? That makes sense but I should note that it's only the FOURTH time in the wild-card era (since 1995)that the teams with the best record in each league will meet in the World Series. The Game 1 starters will be Tampa Bay's Tyler Glasnow and LA's Clayton Kershaw.

The 6-foot-8 Glasnow opened the 2019 season 5–0 with a 1.75 ERA, earning him American League Pitcher of the Month honors for April. However, after straining his arm against the Yankees on May 10, Glasnow went to the 10 Day IL. He went to the 60 day IL on May 26, before returning in September to make four starts. He did not get past the fifth inning in any of them, finishing the 2019 season with a 6–1 record and a 1.78 ERA in 60.2 innings (0.89 WHIP and .186 BAA) over 12 starts (Rays were 10-2). However, he made two starts in the playoffs against the Astros, losing both while posting a 7.71 ERA. Glasnow opened 0-0 (team was 1-2) over his first three starts of 2020 (5.56 ERA) but he allowed just two ERs or less in SIX of his last eight regular season starts (allowed three and four ERs in the other two), as the Rays won ALL eight of those starts. The Rays then won his first three starts of the 2020 postseason, extending that run of winning starts to 11 in a row. That streak ended in Game 4 of the ALCS when the Astros refused to get swept by winning 4-3. Glasnow allowed four ERs in six innings and takes the mound tonight  2-1 with a 4.66 ERA in four postseason starts (Rays are 3-1). He has struck out 25 in 19.1 innings but has served up six HRs.

Kershaw needs little introduction. He's won three CY Young awards (2011, 2013 and 2014) and Kershaw went 6-2 with a 2.16 ERA in 10 starts in the 2020 regular season (Dodgers were 8-2 in those starts). He opened the current postseason winning his first two starts, allowing three ERs over 14 innings (1.93 ERA) with a 19-1 KW ratio. However, his past playoff woes were on full display in his most recent outing, Game 4 of the NLCS. That contest was tied 1-1 after five innings but after the Braves shut the Dodgers down in the 6th, they sent 11 batters to the plate and scored six runs in the bottom of the sixth-inning, chasing Kershaw and breaking the game wide-open. Kershaw never got an out in the 6th, leaving after allowing four runs in five innings. The 10-2 loss put the Dodgers in an 0-3 'hole' but as we all know, LA rallied with THREE straight wins.

Kershaw's postseason history is a 'broken record.' He is just 11-12 with a 4.31 ERA in 35 career postseason appearances (28 starts) and in his two World Series appearances (2017 and 2018) he is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA in five appearances (four starts). The Dodgers are 1-3 in those four starts, as Kershaw has allowed 21 hits  and 16 ERs over 22.2 innings for a 6.35 ERA.

I just couldn't be comfortable backing Kershaw and Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash has been masterful in 'working' his pitching staff. A Tampa Bay starter has only lasted six innings in just TWO of the Rays' 14 games. That said, Glasnow's two six-inning outings accounted for BOTH of them. I CAN'T resist taking this HUGE price with Glasnow against Kershaw.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game 7 Decider is on the LA Dodgers at 8:15 ET.

The Dodgers fell behind 0-2 in the NLCS but then came a 15-3 win in Game 3, spurred on by a record-setting 11-run 1st inning. However, the Dodgers went meekly 10-2 in Game 4 to fall in a 1-3 'hole.' LA's season was on the brink in Game 5 but Mookie Betts' third-inning, shoestring catch altered the momentum, and then Will Smith's sixth-inning three-run HR put LA up for good at 4-2. The Braves and Dodgers met in Game 6 Saturday night and it was a pitching rematch of Game 1, Fried vs Buehler. Fried opened his outing in Game 6 by getting Betts on a fly ball to center field but Seager hit a HR home run on a 0-1 curveball (note: he now has five HRs and 11 RBI, both records for a LCS in either league), while Turner crushed a sinker two pitches later for a second straight HR. After a walk to Max Muncy and a single from Will Smith, Cody Bellinger delivered a run-scoring single to center for a 3-0 advantage. The Braves had a prime scoring chance in the second inning, opening with singles from Travis d'Arnaud, Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson to load the bases. However, Buehler escaped the jam by striking out Austin Riley and Nick Markakis, before Cristian Pache grounded out. The Dodgers NEVER looked back after that. Buehler pitched SIX scoreless innings (6-0 KW ratio), before three LA relievers closed out the 3-1 victory. Most notably, Kenley Jansen recorded the final three outs of Saturday's win. He struck three batters (on 12 pitchers) in the 9th inning of Game 5 in a non-save situation but last night's effort represented his first save since the Dodgers' first postseason game 17 days ago!

So here we are, getting set for a Game 7 in the NLCS, just like in the ALCS (Tampa Bay won that one, after blowing a 3-0 series lead). Jansen, who faced the bottom of the Braves' order, was helped by a sliding catch from Joc Pederson to open the inning, then got routine fly outs from Nick Markakis and Pablo Sandoval. Six pitches, three outs to force a Game 7. The Braves will start Ian Anderson, who made his MLB on August 26 and in six regular season starts, posted a 1.95 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and .172 BAA. He won his first two postseason starts, pitching 11.2 scoreless innings with a 17-3 KW ratio. In Game 2 of the NLCS, he allowed just ONE hit and no runs over four innings but struggled with his control and walked FIVE. He was removed after those four innings, with the Braves up 6-0. He'll take the mound tonight in this Game 7, having not allowed a SINGLE run in 15.2 postseason innings. However, the pressure will be great for a 22-year-old trying to help the Braves reach the World Series for the first time since 1999 (Anderson was born in 1998!).

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts declined to name a starter for the series finale, although he did admit he would lean on Tony Gonsolin (LA's Game 2 starter) for bulk innings at some point. Roberts essentially threw all of his ingredients on the cutting board, saying that he would even check on the availability of Clayton Kershaw for Game 7. Please God, no! The Dodgers are trying to get to the World Series for the third time in the past four seasons, where they lost in 2017 to the Astros and in 2018 to the Red Sox. LA has won EIGHT straight NL West titles but the Dodgers have not won a World Series since 1988 (Gibson/Hershiser). 

I'll repeat what I wrote in my Game 6 analysis, as it applies here, as well. "Let's NOT forget that LA won EIGHT more games than Atlanta in the regular season plus owned a MLB-best plus-136 run differential, more than DOUBLE that of Atlanta's (plus-60). LA sends this to a Game 7 on Sunday!" Well here we are on Sunday and my bet says LA wins and moves on to the World Series to take on the Tampa Bays Rays, who had the AL's best record (just like LA had the NL's best record). A bonus for LA will be, the World Series will be played at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Tx, where the Dodgers have just spent the last seven days battling the Braves, I don't care which pitcher  LA starts or brings in during the game but "PLEASE NO" Kershaw, unless LA explodes for another 11-run inning!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game 7 Decider is on the TB Rays at 8:37 ET.

Houston's Alex Bregman had several Astros teammates watch the ESPN documentary of the '04 Red Sox's improbable ALCS win over the NY Yankees, when Boston climbed out of an 0-3 'hole' to win FOUR straight. As Saturday dawns, the Astros are trying to create their own biopic. Houston won Game 5 (4-3) when Carlos Correa belted a walk-off HR with one out in the ninth inning. The Astros followed with a 7-4 win in Friday's Game 6 and have now joined those Red Sox as the only clubs in major league history to force a Game 7 after trailing a best-of-seven series by three games. Houston trailed 1-0 through four innings on Friday but a four-run 5th gave them a lead the team never relinquished. Houston extended its lead to 7-1 by the 7th inning and held on for the three-run victory.

All eyes now turn to the starting pitchers for Game 7. Houston's Lance McCullers Jr. and Tampa Bay's Charlie Morton are former teammates, who squared off in Game 2. McCullers pitched a good game but was unable to overcome a throwing error by Jose Altuve in the first inning that led to a Manuel Margot three-run HR (all runs were unearned). He pitched seven innings and allowed just one more run, while striking out 11 without a walk. As for Morton, he pitched five scoreless innings. I had Morton in that game and will play him (and the Rays) again in Game 7 and here's why.

Here's what I noted about McCullers in my Game 2 analysis. He has made 93 career regular season appearances (91 starts), going 33-25 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. His 2020 numbers (over 11 starts) were pretty much in line with his career ones () but look at his away/home breakdown. McCullers made six home starts, posting a 1.42 ERA and .159 BAA but in five road starts, had a 7.33 ERA and .290 BAA. His first postseason start came against the A's and he allowed five ERs in four innings on eight hits (including three HRs) but got bailed out, as Houston scored 10 runs on 16 hits. Then came his Game 2 start. Sure, Altuve's error kept the first inning 'alive,' but McCullers didn't HAVE to give up a three-rub HR!!!

Moron's solid effort in Game 2 makes him 2-0 this postseason, allowing two runs (one earned) over 10 innings for an 0,90 ERA (11-3 KW ratio). He's now 6-2 with a 3.16 ERA over 11 postseason appearances (10 starts). This is a neutral site but I want Morton over McCullers, whose stats AWAY from his home park are VERY worrisome. Kevin Cash has done a masterful job with the Rays all season and while Dusty Baker has produced very good results as both a player and manager in his MLB career, he's yet to win "the big ones" as a manager. Houston's 2-0 sweep over Minnesota hardly counts, as the Twins haven't even won a SINGLE postseason game in their last 18 tries. As for getting past the A's, was that a big deal?  Oakland beat the Chicago White Sox 6-4 in its deciding Game 3 back on Oct 1, ending a NINE-game losing streak in winner-take-all postseason games, a major league record that dated to the 1973 World Series. The A's had also lost SIX straight playoff series since sweeping Minnesota in the 2006 ALDS.

Does MLB history have room for a second team to overcome an 0-3 'hole?' My bet says N-O! The Lightning won this season's Stanley Cup and a win for the Rays here could make for a very special 2020 for the city of Tampa. BTW...I think Tampa fans are also counting on TB 12 to deliver a Super Bowl title, as well

Good luck...Larry 

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Dodgers at 4:38 ET.

The Dodgers' season was on the brink in Game 5 but Mookie Betts' third-inning, shoestring catch altered the momentum, and then Will Smith's sixth-inning three-run HR put LA up for good at 4-2. Let's also not forget SS Corey Seager, who homered twice (the 2nd coming in LA's three-run 7th) in the Dodgers' 7-3, season-saving victory over the Braves. Seager 'flies under the radar' in LA's star-packed lineup but he now has 10 RBI in this NLCS, the most in a LCS since Nelson Cruz (Texas) set the record with 13 in 2011.

LA finally started to reach Atlanta pitching by scoring SEVEN runs in the final three innings of an 8-7 Game 2 loss. Then came a 15-3 win in Game 3 (record-setting 11-run 1st), before the Dodgers went meekly 10-2 in Game 4 to fall in a 1-3 'hole.' LA still trails Atlanta 3-2 and must win Saturday and Sunday to reach the World Series, but Friday's win has to give them a real shot of confidence. The Dodgers will NEED that confidence as Atlanta will send Max Fried to the mound in Game 6, with LA countering with Walker Buehler (a rematch of the Game 1 starters).

Fried allowed just one run on four hits over six innings in Game 1, a contest not decided until the Braves broke open a one-all game with a four-run 9th. Fried delivered an outstanding regular season for an Atlanta pitching staff that was decimated by injuries. He made 11 starts, going 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .211 BAA, as the Braves won 10 of his 11 starts. He pitched seven scoreless innings in his Game 1 start vs Cincy, as the Braves won 1-0 in 13 innings. His Game 1 start vs Miami was not very good, as he allowed four ERs on six hits over just four innings but Atlanta's six-run 7th gave the Braves a 9-5 win. Add in Atlanta's 5-1 win in Game 1 of this series and the Braves enter this game 13-1 in his 14 starts here in 2020.

Here's the 'dope' on LA's Buehler. He made 30 starts for LA in 2019, going 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .223 BAA. He only earned ONE win during the regular season zero losses), as the Dodgers went 7-1 in his eight regular season starts, during which he was bothered in September by some finger issues. He ended the regular season with a 3.44 ERA, 0.95 WHIP (42-11 KW ratio) and an outstanding BAA of .178. However, his longest outing all season was just SIX innings. The Dodgers had won both of his postseason starts but Buehler only finished FOUR innings in each outing, before his Game 1 matchup with Fried. Buehler allowed just one run on three hits over five innings in that contest, although he walked FIVE batters.

 I've played on Fried MANY times this season (I had him over Buehler in Game 1 of this series) but I'll play the Dodgers in this one. The Braves have that great top of the lineup (Acuna, Freeman and Ozuna, two red-hot starters in Fried and Anderson plus a bullpen, that for the most part, has delivered this season. However, the pen allowed LA seven runs in the final three innings in Game 2, did little to 'stop the bleeding' in the Game 3 blowout and then there was last night. A.J. Minter delivered three scoreless innings, after which FIVE Atlanta relievers allowed SEVEN runs! As for LA, which has had bullpen woes, SIX relievers handled seven innings behind starter Dustin May allowed one run on four hits with a 7-1 KW ratio). Blake Treinen dominated over two innings to earn the victory, Brusdar Graterol rebounded after a rough outing in Game 4 to retire all three batters he faced, and Kenley Jansen appeared to exorcise his demons in the ninth, striking out the side to end the game on 12 pitches in a non-save situation.

Do the Dodgers suddenly have late-inning options again? Let's NOT forget that LA won EIGHT more games than Atlanta in the regular season plus owned a MLB-best plus-136 run differential, more than DOUBLE that of Atlanta's (plus-60). LA sends this to a Game 7 on Sunday!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Hou Astros at 6:07 ET.

The Astros were able to avoid getting swept by the Rays by winning 4-3 in Game 4. Altuve hit a solo HR in the 1st and then doubled in a run in the second for Houston but Tampa Bay's Arozarena hit a two-run HR to tie it in the fourth, before George Springer's two-run HR put the Astros up 4-2 in the 5th. Zach Greinke got into trouble in the top of the sixth but Dusty Baker went with his 'gut' and decided to leave Greinke in and he delivered by getting out of the inning. Tampa Bay scored once in the 9th but left a runner stranded on third when the game ended. The two teams went with "bullpen" games for Thursday's Game 5, as neither start saw the third inning. George Springer crushed John Curtiss' first pitch over the fence in left field to give the Astros the lead in a game in which they never trailed. Brandon Lowe homered in the third to tie it for Tampa Bay but Houston went up 3-1 on a two-run double by Brantley. Solo shots by Tampa's Arozarena and Choi sent the game to the 9th tied at 3-all. Astros closer Pressley stranded the potential go-ahead run on second base in the top of the ninth, before Carlos Correa belted a walk-off HR with one out in the ninth inning. The game-ending blast came off Nick Anderson, who had entered a tie game in the bottom of the eighth and had retired all four batters he faced before Correa's blast.

As we head to Game 6, here's the setting. The Rays have now lost two in a row but still lead the best-of-seven series 3-2. As for the Astros, they became just the fourth team out of 39 ever to trail a playoff series 3-0 and even force a Game 6. The 2004 Boston Red Sox (in the ALCS against the NYY), are the only team to win a series after losing the opening three games. The Astros attempt to keep their season alive with a third straight win Friday night, as the Game 6 starters are Houston left-hander Framber Valdez and Tampa Bay lefty Blake Snell. It's a rematch of Game 1, which the Rays won 2-1. Framber pitched six innings in that contest, allowing two runs on four hits and four walks, while striking out eight. Snell earned the win by allowing one run on six hits and two walks over five innings with just two Ks.

Snell, the 2018 AL Cy Young Award winner, has opened each of Tampa Bay's three series, sandwiching a loss to the New York Yankees (5 IP / 4 ERs) with wins over Toronto and Houston (10.2 IP / 1 ER). He has allowed five runs on 13 hits with a 15-6 KW ratio over 15.2 innings for a 2.87 ERA. Valdez will also be making his fourth appearance of the 2020 postseason. He entered Game 1 in the 5th inning of Houston's wild card series with Minnesota, with the Astros down 1-0. He delivered FIVE scoreless innings (and just two hits) to earn a 4-1 win when the Astros broke open a 1-1 tie with a three-run ninth. Framber followed with a 5-2 win over Oakland, pitching seven innings two runs allowed on five hits), before his Game 1 loss to Snell and the Rays in Game 1 of this ALCS.

The Rays looked like a "team of destiny" after winning a deciding Game 5 over the NYY and Cole and then taking a 3-0 lead in this series with Houston. However, after back-to-back 4-3 wins by the Astros, it's Houston, not Tampa Bay, that suddenly owns the positive "mojo" heading to Game 6. 

This is Snell's fifth season in the majors but I don't think he rates much of an edge at all over Framber (in his 3rd season), who has allowed just four ERs on 11 hits over 18 innings this postseason (2.00 ERA) with a 17-7 KW ratio. This Houston team has played 56 playoff games these last three-plus postseasons, winning EIGHT of 10 series. Can they come back and replicate what the  Red Sox did to the Yankees in 2004 (see above)? That is NOT the question here, rather it is can they force a Game 7? That's my bet.

Good luck...Larry

My LCS 10* Game of the Year is on the LA Dodgers at 6:05 ET.

The Braves and Dodgers opened their NLCS on Monday. The Braves led the majors in OPS (.832) and ranked second in team BA (.268), runs (348), HRs (103) and slugging (.483) during the regular season. Checking LA's numbers in those same categories reveals the Dodgers had an .821 OPS, a team BA of .256, scored 349 runs, hit 118 HRs and owned a slugging percentage of .430. However, LA's pitching numbers are dominant by comparison. LA owned a team ERA of 3.02 (Atlanta's was 4.41) with a 1.06 WHIP (Atlanta's was 1.36) and a BAA of .213 (Atlanta's was .247). LA owned a MLB-best 43-17 regular season record, while Atlanta was EIGHT games worse at 35-25. More LA dominance was revealed by LA's MLB-best plus-136 run differential, more than DOUBLE that of Atlanta's (plus-60). 

"Something had to give" in Game 1, as the Braves and Dodgers were both 5-0 this postseason and the pitching matchup featured Fried (Braves were 12-1 in his starts in 2020) vs Buehler (Dodgers were 9-1 in his starts). Game 1 entered the 9th tied at one-all when Austin Riley hit a solo shot to put the Braves up. An Acuna double, an Ozuna single and an Albies HR, all, like Riley's hit, coming after 0-2 counts, gave the Braves a 5-1 win. Game 2 was expected to see Ian Anderson  go up against Clayton Kershaw. Anderson made his MLB on August 26 and in six regular season starts, posted a 1.95 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and .172 BAA. He'd won BOTH postseason starts, pitching 11.2 scoreless innings with a 17-3 KW ratio. However, Kershaw was scratched with back spasms. Gonsolin was an under-appreciated hurler for Dave Roberts' squad this season. However, the jury is still out on how he will fare in his first postseason appearance.

Here's the answer. Anderson allowed just one hit and struck out five in four scoreless innings but his outing was cut short after he gave up five walks and threw 85 pitches. As for Gonsolin, he was fine through three innings but then allowed a two-run HR to Freddie Freeman in the 4th. He was chased in the 5th inning, when Atlanta added FOUR more runs (Gonsolin was charged with five ERs in 4.1 innings). The Braves extended the lead to 7-0 in the top of the 7th but Corey Seager hit a three-run HR in the bottom of the 7th. It was 8-3 entering the bottom of the 9th when the Dodgers scored FOUR times, before Cody Bellinger was left on third base when A.J. Pollock's groundout ended the rally.

So here we are. MLB's most-dominant team this COVID-shortened season is now in an 0-2 'hole' against the Braves, who are a perfect 7-0 in the playoffs. Heading into the 7th inning of last night's game, Atlanta pitching had allowed just SIX runs (five came in Its 9-5 Game 1 win over Miami) through 64 innings, before FIVE relievers allowed SEVEN runs over the last three innings to the Dodgers in Game 2. The Game 3 starters will be Julio Urias for LA (Kershaw is still unavailable) and Kyle Wright for Atlanta.

Urias made 18 appearances (15 starts) for LA back in 2016, going 5-2 with a 3.39 ERA. He then made just eight appearances (five starts) in 2017 and 2018 combined, before making 37 appearances (eight starts) last season, going 4-3 with a 2.49 ERA. He made 11 appearances (10 starts) this season, going 3-0 with a 3.27 ERA and a .220 BAA, as the Dodgers went just 5-5 in his starts. However, he's started twice in the postseason, a short three-inning stint in Game 1 of the wild card round against Milwaukee that LA won 4-2. He then pitched five innings and got the "W" in LA's 12-3 series-clinching Game 3 win over the Padres.

In 2017 and 2018, Wright made 11 appearances (four starts) for the Braves, going 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA. He was hardly much better in 2020, making eight starts and going 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.55 WHIP (Braves managed to go 4-4 in his starts). However, he pitched SIX scoreless innings in Atlanta's Game 3 series-clinching 7-0 win over Miami (allowed three hits with seven Ks). Will the Braves just "keep winning?" I find it hard to believe the Dodgers' offense, which HAD to gain some confidence after last night's seven-run outburst the last three innings, WON'T be able to reach Wright, who is just NOT much of a pitcher, despite his effort vs Miami (see above). Meanwhile, the 24-year-old Urias had a solid season and in two postseason appearances in 2020, has allowed just one run (unearned at that) on four hits over eight innings with an 11-1 KW ratio. This price is typically outside of my 'range' but in the postseason, one HAS to be willing to 'lay a little extra juice' every once in a while. That time is RIGHT HERE!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Astros at 8:40 ET.

The Tampa Bay Rays eked out a 2-1 win in Game 1 on Sunday night and then came back with a 4-2 in Game 2, late Monday afternoon. A two-out throwing error by Astros second baseman Jose Altuve brought Manny Margot to the plate with two on in the bottom of the first and he hit Lance McCullers second pitch over the fence in center to give Tampa Bay a 3-0 lead, one which the Rays never relinquished. Margot then made the "catch of the postseason" in the top of the second, when Houston's George Springer came up with two outs and runners on second and third. Springer hit a fly down the right field line that kept drifting into foul territory toward the wall but Margot made the grab as he hit the wall and then he went over it and fell face first to the concrete below, quickly getting up to hold up his glove, displaying that he made the catch.

The Houston Astros are in desperate need of a win in Game 3, or this ALCS is all but over. Houston manager Dusty Baker insists his message to his team is simple. "I'm not going to have a message other than, 'Hey boys, we got to keep swinging it,'" Baker said Monday after Houston's 4-2 setback in Game 2. "That's all you can do. Talk is cheap. We just got to find some holes." More in a bit.

The pitching matchup will be Ryan Yarbrough for Tampa Bay and Jose Urquidy for Houston. Yarbrough made 38 appearances in 2018 (just six starts) but put together a 16-6 season with a 3.91 ERA. In 2019, 14 of his 28 appearances were starts, as he went 11-6 with a 4.13 ERA. He was mainly a starter in 2020, as NINE of his 11 appearances were as a starter. He was 1-4 with a 3.56 ERA, as the Rays went 4-5 in his starts. Urquidy made nine appearances in 2019 (seven starts), going 2-1 with a 3.95 ERA. He made just five appearances in 2020 (all starts), going just 1-1 (team was 2-3) but posted a 2.73 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and .206 BAA.

This will be Yarbrough's first career playoff start, while Urquidy has started twice this postseason. He was solid in Houston's 3-1 Game 2 win over Minnesota (4.1 IP / 2 hits / 1 ER) but allowed four HRs in 4.1 innings of a 9-7 Game 3 loss to Oakland. Tampa Bay is looking like a team of destiny and manager Kevin Cash has masterfully used his deep and talented bullpen. However, the main core of this Houston team has been together for the last FOUR seasons and I expect them to bounce back here. Dusty is right when he said his team has just "got to keep swinging it! The Astros left seven runners on base over the first four innings in Game 2 and for the series. have scored just three runs and left 21 runners on base. Meanwhile, the Rays are up 2-0, with a modest 10 hits (team BA of .169). For at least this contest, it's Houston's 'day!'

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Pitchers Showdown is on the Atl Braves at 8:08 ET.

The Braves beat the Marlins 3-0 in Game 3 last Thursday, giving Atlanta a three-game sweep and its first trip to the NLCS since 2001. In the process, the Braves became just the SECOND team in MLB history to throw four shutouts in their first five playoff games, joining the 1905 New York Giants behind Hall of Famers Christy Mathewson and Joe McGinnity. The Braves have already pitched the most postseason shutouts in franchise history and are one shutout shy of tying the MLB record for most in a postseason set by the 2016 Indians over 15 games. Atlanta draws the LA Dodgers in the NLCS, who completed a three-game sweep of their own last Thursday with a 12-3 win over the Padres. Los Angeles advanced to its fourth NL Championship Series in five years and the team with MLB's best regular season record in 2020 (43-17), will be making their 14th NLCS appearance, matching the St Louis Cardinals for the most. 

The Braves led the majors in OPS (.832) and ranked second in team BA (.268), runs (348), HRs (103) and slugging (.483) during the regular season. Checking LA's numbers in those same categories reveals the Dodgers had an .821 OPS, a team BA of .256, scored 349 runs, hit 118 HRs and owned a slugging percentage of .430. However, LA's pitching numbers are dominant by comparison. LA owns a team ERA of 3.02 (Atlanta's is 4.41) with a 1.06 WHIP (Atlanta's is 1.36) and a BAA of .213 (Atlanta's is .247). LA owned a MLB-best 43-17 regular season record, while Atlanta was EIGHT games worse at 35-25. More LA dominance is revealed by LA's MLB-best plus-136 run differential, more than DOUBLE that of Atlanta's (plus-60).

So why take Atlanta? I really believe Fried over Buehler gives them a starting pitcher edge plus the Dodgers are really concerned over closer Kenley Jansen's recent woes. Fried delivered an outstanding regular season for an Atlanta pitching staff that was decimated by injuries. He made 11 starts, going 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .211 BAA, as the Braves went 10-1 in his starts. He pitched seven scoreless innings in his Game 1 start (5-0 KW ratio) vs Cincy, as the Braves won 1-0 in 13 innings. However, his Game 1 start vs Miami was not very good, as he allowed four ERs on six hits over just four innings (4-0 KW ratio) but Atlanta's six-run 7th gave the Braves a 9-5 win. Bottom line is the Braves are 12-1 in his 2020 starts!

Buehler made 30 starts for LA in 2019, going 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .223 BAA. I realize the Dodgers went 7-1 in his eight regular season start, when he was bothered in September by some finger issues. He ended the regular season with a 3.44 ERA, 0.95 WHIP (42-11 KW ratio) and an outstanding BAA of .178. However he earned just ONE win, as his longest outing all season was just SIX innings. The Dodgers have won both of his postseason starts but Buehler has gone just FOUR innings in each outing. I'm backing Fried and the Braves at this price.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the TB Rays at 4:07 ET.

Michael Brosseau hit a dramatic home run off Aroldis Chapman with one out in the eighth inning, as the Tampa Bay Rays beat the New York Yankees 2-1 Friday night in the decisive Game 5 to reach the ALCS for the first time in 12 seasons. The Rays dominated the regular-season series with the Yankees 8-2 and were the AL's No. 1 seed and making the victory even more 'sweet' was that Tampa Bay's $29 million payroll (28th out of the 30 major league teams) was dwarfed by the Yankees, who had the third-largest payroll at $84 million. Waiting for the Rays were the Houston Astros, who followed three straight 100-win seasons by going just 29-31 during this year's COVID-shortened season but were able to get into an expanded 16-team playoff field by virtue of finishing second in the AL West. The Astros then swept AL Central champs Minnesota 2-0 in the wild card round and eliminated AL west champs Oakland 3-1 in an ALDS matchup.

Game 1 of the ALCS was last night and the Rays won 2-1. The Rays took a 1-0 series lead on the back of two timely hits and a pair of critical double plays, the latter coming with the bases loaded and one out in the top of the eighth inning. Randy Arozarena his fourth HR of this postseason. and Mike Zunino plated the go-ahead run with a first-pitch single in the fifth inning. Blake Snell allowed a solo HR in the first inning but that was all he allowed in five innings. The Rays' bullpen then produced another exceptional effort, as four relievers combined for FOUR scoreless innings. Houston wasted a solid effort by Valdez (two runs in six innings with eight Ks), as the Astros left 10 men on base and went 2 of 8 with RISP.

The Game 2 pitching matchup features Lance McCullers and Charlie Morton. McCullers has made 93 career appearances (91 starts), going 33-25 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. His 2020 numbers (over 11 starts) are pretty much in line with his career ones but look at his away/home breakdown. McCullers has made six home starts, posting a 1.42 ERA and .159 BAA but in five road starts, he owns a 7.33 ERA and .290 BAA. His lone postseason start against the A's he allowed five ERs in four innings on eight hits (including three HRs). He got bailed out though, as Houston scored 10 runs on 16 hits. Yes, this is again a neutral site, but his stats AWAY from his home park HAVE to be worrisome.

Charlie Morton went 14-7 (2017) and 15-3 (2018) for Houston and then 16-6 for Tampa Bay last season, after signing as a free agent. His 2020 season has been a disappointment. He went 0-1 (0-2) in two July starts with an 8.00 ERA but the rest of his regular season may have gone better than most people think. The Rays won FIVE of his last seven starts, as he never allowed more than three ERs in any start (3.72 ERA). His lone postseason start was Game 3 vs the Yankees and he delivered a solid effort in Tampa Bay's 8-4 win. He allowed two runs (just one earned) over five innings with six Ks. Morton is no stranger to postseason pressure. He earned the win for the Astros in Game 7 of the 2017 World Series and is 5-2 with a 3.50 ERA in 10 all-time playoff appearances (nine starts). I 'love' Morton over McCullers (plus Tampa Bay's bullpen is ALWAYS ready!) and expect the Rays to go up 2-0.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Series Game of the Year is on the NY Yankees at 7:10 ET.

The Tampa Bay Rays went an AL-Best 40-20 during the regular season and captured the AL East title for the first time since 2010. In the process, the Rays took EIGHT of 10 from the Yankees but I doubt anyone on Tampa Bay expected their ALDS with their hated rivals would be a 'walk in the park.' The Yankees won 9-3 ion Game 1, while the Rays rebounded to win Games 2 and 3, 7-5 and 8-4. However, the Yankees didn't flinch under the pressure of an elimination game, as Luke Voit and Gleyber Torres hit impressive HRs, while Jordan Montgomery and three relievers combined on a three-hitter. The Yankees beat the Rays 5-1 Thursday night to even the best-of-5 series at 2-all.

The Yankees are trying to reach the ALCS for the THIRD time in four seasons following eliminations by the Astros at that stage in 2017 and last season. Meanwhile, the Rays are trying to advance to the ALCS for the first time since 2008, when they made it to their only World Series. Somewhat ironically, the pitching matchup of Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow is a rematch of last year's ALDS Game 5 between Houston and Tampa Bay. Cole pitched eight innings of one-run ball for the Astros in a 5-1 victory. while Glasnow was allowed four runs early, getting pulled after getting just EIGHT outs! Cole allowed three ERs over six innings of Game 1 with eight Ks and was backed by four HRs as the Yankees won 9-3 in the series opener. Glasnow had 10Ks in just five innings of Game 2 but allowed four ERs. However, the Rays won 7-5. Then again, don't ignore the fact that Game 2 was the Rays' 10th straight win when Glasnow pitches. He won his FIFTH straight start and SEVENTH consecutive decision.

I'm NOT sure why MLB decided to play the four Division Series WITHOUT a day off (Championship Series will be contested without any days off, as well), as it has taxed the pitching staffs of all teams and in particular any that are forced to "go the distance." That's the case here with the Rays and Yanks. Cole will pitch on three days' rest for the FIRST in his career, while Glasnow is being asked to pitch on TWO days' rest. Cole signed a nine-year, $324 million contract in December and a game like this is why the Yankees signed him. Cole was DOMINANT in the 2019 postseason (4-1 record with a 1.72 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in five starts for Houston) and he's pitched Game 1 of New York's first two postseason series in 2020 and while his ERA of 3.46 is higher than expected, DON'T ignore that he's had 21 Ks against just two walks, while the Yankees have won 12-3 and 9-3. Glasnow made two starts in the playoffs against the Astros last season, losing both while posting a 7.71 ERA. In two postseason starts in 2020, the Rays have won both and Glasnow owns an 18-3 KW ratio but he's also allowed six ERs over 11 innings (4.91 ERA).

With a shortened season, Cole has NOT been overworked and while I'm no fan of working on three days' rest, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt (plenty of other big time pitchers have come through in situations like this over the last decade). However, Glasnow pitching on two days' rest makes absolutely NO sense to me and makes me wonder just how "little faith" Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash has in Blake Snell. Yankees win and set up a Houston/New York ALCS which should be a real "grudge match!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Rout (Part 4) is on the NY Yankees at 7:10 ET.

The NY Yankees became the first team in American League history to hit a grand slam in back-to-back playoff games in Game 1 (9-3 New York win), while setting a franchise record by hitting at least three HRs in three consecutive postseason games. Giancarlo Stanton hit two HRs in Game 2 giving him five HRs in his team's first four playoff games (tying an MLB record held by Juan Gonzalez of the Rangers, in1996) but the Rays hit four HRs in Game 2 plus more importantly, four Rays pitchers struck out 18 Yankees, an MLB postseason record for a nine-inning game and a postseason record for Yankees batters. That allowed Tampa Bay to win 7-5 and even the series at one-all. Giancarlo Stanton hit a two-run HR in the eighth inning of Game 3 to become the first player with a HR in each of his team's first five games of a single postseason (has six HRs and 13 RBI in those five games) but it wasn't enough, The Rays' Randy Arozarena homered for the THIRD straight game on Wednesday, while Kevin Kiermaier and Michael Perez also went deep for the Rays, who beat Yankees 8-4 to move within one victory of reaching the ALCS for the first time in 12 years.

Wednesday's starting pitchers were veterans Charlie Morton Masahiro Tanaka. Morton got the win after holding the Yankees to two runs (one earned) on four hits in five innings. He struck out six and walked two in winning his FIFTH straight postseason decision. Tanaka took the loss after allowing five runs on eight hits in four-plus innings. He struck out four and walked one. One could hardly describe Game 4's starters as veterans. The Yankees will send Jordan Montgomery (46 career starts, 13-10 with a 4.14 ERA) makes his postseason debut in Game 4, after going 2-3 with a 5.11 ERA in 10 regular-season starts this year (Yanks were 5-5). The Rays will use side-arming right-hander Ryan Thompson as their opener on Thursday. Thompson is a rookie who made 25 regular season appearances (just ONE start, as an "opener"), going 1-2 with a 4.44 ERA and 1,41 WHIP  He's making his third appearance of the postseason, pitching 3.1 innings, including two innings in Game 1 against the Yankees. It's expected that Ryan Yarbrough (1-4 with a 3.56 ERA in 11 regular season appearances, including nine starts) could see extended work in hopes of getting the ball to high-leverage relievers Pete Fairbanks and Nick Anderson, who did not pitch Wednesday.

The Rays posted the AL's best record during the regular season (40-20) and took EIGHT of 10 from the Yankees. They have now won TWO of three in the ALDS. Is this their year? It could still be but I'm backing the Yankees in this game. Montgomery pitched into the 6th inning in two of his last three regular season starts (pitched 4.2 innings in the other one) and that's what the Yankees need here. The Yankees have scored 40 runs in their six postseason games and I expect them to push this to a deciding Game 5, when they can hand the ball to Gerrit Cole but remember, with NO days off, Cole would be pitching on just three days' rest. Back to the present. Take the Yankees.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Rout (Part 3) is on the TB Rays at 7:10 ET.

The NY Yankees became the first team in American League history to hit a grand slam in back-to-back playoff games in Game 1, while setting a franchise record by hitting at least three HRs in three consecutive postseason games. Giancarlo Stanton hit two HRs in Game 2 and has now hit five HRs this postseason, tying an MLB record held by Juan Gonzalez (Rangers, 1996) for HRs by a player in his team's first four playoff games. However, the Rays hit four HRs in Game 2 and more importantly, four Rays pitchers struck out 18 Yankees, an MLB postseason record for a nine-inning game and a postseason record for Yankees batters. Starter Tyler Glasnow allowed three hits and four runs in five-plus innings, while walking three. His 10 strikeouts surpass the previous Rays postseason record of nine done three times. It was the Rays' 10th straight win when Glasnow started. He won his FIFTH straight start and SEVENTH consecutive decision.

It's now Game 3 of the best-of-five series with the teams tied at one game apiece. The Rays will 'play the road team' in this one and send Charlie Morton (2-2, 4.74 ERA in the regular season) to the mound, while the Yankees counter with Masahiro Tanaka (3-3, 3.56 ERA). Morton went 14-7 (2017) and 15-3 (2018) for Houston and then 16-6 for Tampa Bay last season, after signing as a free agent. His 2020 season has been a disappointment. He went 0-1 (0-2) in two July starts with an 8.00 ERA but the rest of his regular season may have gone better than most people think. The Rays won FIVE of his last seven starts, never allowing more than three ERs in any start (3.72 ERA). Morton is 4-2 with a 3.83 ERA in 10 career starts vs the Yankees and this will be his first postseason start of 2020 (last start was Sep 24 vs Philly). However, he is no stranger to postseason pressure. He earned the win for the Astros in Game 7 of the 2017 World Series and is 4-2 with a 3.70 ERA in nine all-time playoff appearances (eight starts).

This is Tanaka's SEVENTH season with New York. He was 75-43 (.636) his first six seasons (3.75 ERA and 1,13 WHIP). Season 7 has not measured up. He made 10 regular season starts, going 3-3 with 3.56 ERA (1.17 WHIP) as the Yanks were just 5-5. He started Game 2 of the Yankees wild card series with Cleveland and lasted only four innings, allowing five hits, three walks and six ERs (Yanks won anyway, 10-9!). Tanaka has an 11-5 career mark and 3.31 ERA in 21 starts versus the Rays. He also is no stranger to the postseason, making nine starts with a 5-3 record and 2.70 ERA.

Not sure what NYY manager Bob Boone was doing with Garcia in Game 1. He became the youngest starter in NYY postseason history at 21 years old, 140 days and threw 27 pitches (16 strikes) and allowed one hit, a solo shot  but was pulled after ONE inning. Say what? TB manager Kevin Cash has one of MLB's best and deepest bullpens (3.37 bullpen ERA led all AL teams this regular season. I favor Morton over Tanaka but 'LOVE' the Rays bullpen over the Yankees.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Rout (Part 2) is on the TB Rays at 8:10 ET.

Game 1 of the ALDS between the Yankees and Rays was expected to be a pitchers duel between Cole and Snell. That wasn't the case. Cole was solid but hardly spectacular (6 IP/ 3 ERs / 8 Ks) and Snell had a less-than-impressive outing ( 5 IP / six hits, including 3 HRs / 4 ERs). It was 4-3 Yanks into the 9th when New York broke the game open on the strength of Stanton's grand slam. The Yanks would score FIVE runs in the top of the 9th for a 9-3 win and a 1-0 series lead. The Bronx Bombers became the first team in American League history to hit a grand slam in back-to-back playoff games, while setting a franchise record by hitting at least three HRs in three consecutive postseason games. New York's goal in Game 2, after recording 31 runs and a major league-record 11 HRs in their first three postseason contests, is to push the top-seeded Tampa Bay Rays to the brink of elimination on Tuesday in Game 2 of the best-of-five ALDS.

The starting pitching matchup is New York's 21-year-old rookie Deivi Garcia (3-2, 4.98 ERA), going up against Tampa Bay's 27-year-old Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 4.08 ERA). Garcia's made just SIX starts in 2020 and earned his first career win Sep 9 at Toronto, 7-2 (7 IP / 2 ERs). That win was VERY noteworthy, as it snapped New York's five-game losing streak and a stretch in which the Yankees had lost 15 of 20, falling to the edge of the expanded playoff field. The Yankees made the postseason with room to spare but in Garcia's final three starts of 2020, he pitched 16.2 innings, allowing 21 hits and 13 ERs for a 7.02 ERA.

Tampa Bay will counter with 6-foot-8 right-hander Tyler Glasnow. Glasnow opened the 2019 season 5–0 with a 1.75 ERA, earning him American League Pitcher of The Month honors for April. However, after straining his arm against the Yankees on May 10, Glasnow went to the 10 Day IL. He went to the 60 day IL on May 26, before returning in September to make four starts. He did not get past the fifth inning in any of them, finishing the 2019 season with a 6–1 record and a 1.78 ERA in 60.2 innings (0.89 WHIP and .186 BAA) over 12 starts (Rays were 10-2). However, he made two starts in the playoffs against the Astros, losing both while posting a 7.71 ERA. 

Glasnow opened 0-0 (team was 1-2) over his first three starts of 2020 (5.56 ERA) but he allowed just two EERs or less in SIX of his last eight regular season starts (allowed three and four ERs in the other two, as the Rays won ALL eight of those starts. He then made up for his poor 2019 playoff starts, by pitching six innings and allowing just two ERs if an 8-2 Tampa Bay win that closed out the Blue Jays 2-0 in the wild card round. He'll take the mound tonight with the Rays having won his last NINE starts. 10 straight makes for a nice round number and that's my bet.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oak A's at 4:37 ET.

The Houston Astros opened the 2020 season off three straight seasons of 100-plus wins (101, 103 and 107), making the World Series in 2017 and 2019 (won the first, lost the second). The team's season figured to be marred by criticism of "sign stealing" but COVID-19 pushed all other storylines to the 'back-burner.' The Astros opened 15-10 but would go 14-21 the rest of the way and became one of two teams to make the 2020 postseason field with a losing record (29-31). The Astros drew a great wild card matchup in Minnesota, whose postseason 'nightmare' continued. Houston eliminated the Twins 2-0, as the Twins have now lost an incomprehensible 18 consecutive postseason games with a total of seven rounds lost. Houston manager Dusty Baker, who took his fifth different team to the playoffs with teh Astros, advanced for the first time in seven rounds since winning the 2003 NLDS with the Chicago Cubs.

The Oakland A's won the AL West in 2020 for the first time since 2013. The AL West champions lost the opener of its wild card series 4-1 to the White Sox but then won on consecutive days at home in Games 2 and 3 (5-3 and 6-4), advancing to an ALDS against the rival Houston Astros. Oakland snapped a NINE-game losing streak in winner-take-all postseason games, a major league record that dated to the 1973 World Series. The A's had lost six straight playoff series since sweeping Minnesota in the 2006 ALDS, starting with when Detroit swept Oakland in that year's ALCS. It was a humongous relief for a club that won 97 games each of the past two seasons only to lose the division to Houston and then the AL wild card game both years.

The A's got the better of the Astros 7-3 in the season series but fell in Game 1 of this ALDS Monday night, 10-5. The teams combined for six home HRs (three each) but the Astros out-hit the A's 16-8, overcoming a 5-3 deficit to score the game's final SEVEN runs from the 6th-inning on. It's a matchup of left-handed starters in Game 2, Framber Valdez (5-3, 3.57 ERA) for Houston and Sean Manaea (4-3, 4.50 ERA) for Oakland. Valdez made 11 appearances in 2020, including 10 starts (team was 6-4). However, he gets the nod in this one because he pitched five scoreless innings in relief of Zack Greinke for the victory in Game 1 vs the Twins, keeping the bullpen fresh for the rest of the series. Valdez became the first reliever with five shutout innings in a playoff game since Madison Bumgarner did so for the Giants in Game 7 of the 2014 World Series.

Manaea did not pitch in Oakland's 2-1 series win over the Chicago White Sox in the wild-card round and will take the mound for the first time since his last regular season start, which was back on Sep 23. Ironically, that Sep 23rd start came right here at Dodgers Stadium, when he beat LA 6-4, allowing three ERs in six innings. Manaea won 12 games in back-to-back seasons for Oakland in 2017 and 2018 (no-hit the Red Sox on 4/21/18) but was limited to just FIVE starts in 2019 after rehabbing from shoulder surgery that took place in Sep of 2018. However, he made his 2019 season debut in September and went 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA and 0.78 WHIP (30 Ks in 29 .2 innings. Big things were expected in 2020 but he flopped in his first four starts, going 0-2 (team was 1-3) with a 9.00 ERA. However, Manaea has gone 4-1 over his last seven starts (team is 6-1), posting a 2.77 ERA. He's Oakland's best starter but for some reason, has yet to be used this postseason. The A's are basically in a "must-win" situation and it's my belief (bet) that they have the "right man for the job!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the NYY Yankees at 8:07 ET.

I don't want to compare the Yankees/Rays rivalry with the Red Sox/Yankees but the disdain the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees share for each other is hardly a secret. Tampa Bay claimed its third-ever division title by winning EIGHT of 10 meetings, outscoring them 47-34. Tensions boiled over in the ninth inning of New York's 5-3 win back on Sep 1 at Yankee Stadium, when closer Aroldis Chapman threw a 101 mph fastball up and in at infielder Michael Brosseau's head, nearly prompting a benches-clearing incident. Now, after some hostile moments in the regular season, the stakes are significantly higher in this five-game ALDS being played in San Diego.

Petco Park has been known as a pitchers' park and it seems only fitting that the team's two aces will square off. Gerrit Cole (7-3, 2.84 ERA in the regular season) takes the mound for New York, while Tampa Bay counters with Blake Snell (4-2, 3.24 ERA). You may have heard that Cole signed a nine-year, $324 million contract in December. The Yanks won his first five starts of 2020, lost his next four and then won his last three. Cole would go 3-0 while pitching seven innings in each one of his final three regular season starts. He gave up a modest 10 hits over those 21 innings and two ERs for a 0.67 ERA and a 24-3 KW ratio. He then was DOMINANT in New York's 12-3 rout of Cleveland (and likely Cy Young winner Shane Bieber). while Bieber got "Bronx-bombered"  (allowed 7 ERs over 4.2 innings) and Cole allowed two runs in seven innings with 13 Ks against not a single walk!

Snell won the AL's Cy Young award in 2018, going 21-5 with a 1.89 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and .178 BAA, He was Tampa's Opening Day starter for the 2019 season and defeated Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros. 5–1. However, he was placed on the injured list on April 16 after breaking a toe on his right foot while moving furniture in his bathroom and missed two starts. He returned but on July 25 it was announced that Snell would undergo arthroscopic surgery to remove loose bodies from his left elbow. Due to multiple trips to the disabled list, Snell finished with a 6–8 record  last season (4.29 ERA / 1.27 WHIP / .241 BAA). Snell's been healthy this season, going 4-2 (3.24 ERA / 1.20 WHIP / .228 BAA) in 11 starts, with the Rays going 7-4 in those starts.

Cole was not very good vs the Rays in three tries in 2020, taking a no-decision in an 8-4 Yankee win and then losing the next two, He's 2-3 with a 3.12 ERA in nine career starts vs the Rays (teams are 5-4). Snell has n]made two starts vs the Yankees in 2020, pitching just three innings in a 1-0 Tampa Bay win and then five innings while allowing three ERs in a 6-3 victory. However, he's just 4-6 with a 4.31 ERA in 18 career starts vs New York (team is 9-9).

Cole was DOMINATE in the 2019 postseason (4-1 record with a 1.72 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in five starts for Houston) and then was terrific in his showdown with Bieber. As for Snell, he pitched 5.2 scoreless Indians in Game 1 vs Toronto (9-2 KW ratio) but that was just his fourth postseason appearance (2nd start). He owns a 0.82 ERA and 0.64 WHIP but he's pitched just 11 postseason innings. The 'Big Dog' here is Cole and he's my play.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game 1 Series Opener is on the Oak A's at 4:07 ET.

The Houston Astros opened the 2020 season off three straight seasons of 100-plus wins (101, 103 and 107), making the World Series in 2017 and 2019 (won the first, lost the second). The team's season figured to be marred by criticism of "sign stealing" but COVID-19 pushed all other storylines to the 'back-burner.' The Astros opened 15-10 but would go 14-21 the rest of the way and became one of two teams to make the 2020 postseason field with a losing record (29-31). The Astros drew a great wild card matchup in Minnesota, whose postseason 'nightmare' continued. Houston eliminated the Twins 2-0, as the Twins have now lost an incomprehensible 18 consecutive postseason games with a total of seven rounds lost. Houston manager Dusty Baker, who took his fifth different team to the playoffs with teh Astros, advanced for the first time in seven rounds since winning the 2003 NLDS with the Chicago Cubs.

The Oakland A's won the AL West in 2020 for the first time since 2013. The AL West champions lost the opener of its wild card series 4-1 to the White Sox but then won on consecutive days at home in Games 2 and 3 (5-3 and 6-4), advancing to an ALDS against the rival Houston Astros. Oakland snapped a NINE-game losing streak in winner-take-all postseason games, a major league record that dated to the 1973 World Series. The A's had lost six straight playoff series since sweeping Minnesota in the 2006 ALDS, starting with when Detroit swept Oakland in that year's ALCS. It was a humongous relief for a club that won 97 games each of the past two seasons only to lose the division to Houston and then the AL wild card game both years.

The A's got the better of the Astros 7-3 in the season series but it should be noted that they had the advantage of getting eight of the 10 games at home because of a joint walk-out on a scheduled game at Houston on Aug. 28 and a coronavirus-caused postponement two days later. Zack Greinke was considered to be the logical choice for Houston in Game 1 but instead it will be Lance McCullers Jr (5-3, 3.93 ERA). The A's will counter with Chris Bassitt (5-2, 2.29 ERA).

McCullers has made 93 career appearances (91 starts), going 33-25 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. His 3202 numbers (over 11 starts) are pretty much in line with his career ones but look at his away/home breakdown. McCullers has made six home starts, posting a 1.42 ERA and .159 BAA but in five road starts, he owns a 7.33 ERA and .290 BAA. Yes, this is a neutral site, but his stats AWAY from his home park HAVE to be worrisome.

Now look at Bassitt. He made 11 starts in 2020 (record above), with the A's going an impressive 8-3 in those contests. Most notably, he came up HUGE in Game 2 of the wild card series with the A's facing elimination. He gave the A's seven strong innings (7 IP / 1 ER) of a must-have 5-3 victory. That shouldn't have come as a surprise, as in four September starts he was 3-0 (team was 4-0) with a 0.34 ERA and a 25-5 KW ratio. A's grab the Game 1 win.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Wild Card Game of the Year is on the StL Cardinals at 7:08 ET.

San Diego's powerful offense finally burst to life in the 6th-inning of Game 2, after slumbering through a 7-4 loss in Game 1 and a listless first five innings last night. The Cards led 6-2 heading into the bottom of the sixth but the Padres hit five HRs while plating NINE runs from the 6th to the 8th inning. The Padres are the first team in postseason history with five HRs from the sixth inning onward in a game and Thursday's victory marked the team's 23rd comeback win of 2020. The teams now come back and play a "winner-take-all" Game 3 on Friday night.

The Cardinals had to play 53 games in 44 days, including 11 doubleheaders, just to reach the playoffs. Both staffs figure to be strapped after the clubs combined to use 17 pitchers last night but the Cards will be able to send Jack Flaherty to the mound, who last pitched on Sep 25th. He's well-rested and gives the Cards a HUGE edge, San Diego's Game 1 and 2 starters (Chris Paddack and Zach Davies) lasted only a combined 4.1 innings, forcing the Padres to use eight relievers on Wednesday and seven more on Tuesday, for a total of 13.2 innings. SIX San Diego relievers have worked in both games.

Flaherty is NOT the same pitcher as he was in 2019 when he finished fourth in the National League Cy Young Award voting. He went 11-8 in 33 starts last year with a 2.75 ERA, a league-leading 0.97 WHIP and a .192 BAA. He's 4-3 with a 4.91 ERA in nine starts in 2020, posting a 1.22 WHIP and a .221 BAA. The Padres are calling this a "bullpen game" but as noted above, the bullpen just may be 'gassed!' The latest word is that Adrian Morejohn will "open" for San Diego and he's made 14 career appearances (six starts), posting a 6.26 ERA, 1.54v WHIP and .307 BAA. However, who knows who SD will start (doesn't matter).

Flaherty is 1-0 in three career starts against the Padres with a 1.10 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP and a .200 BAA. Last night's victory was the Padres' first postseason win at Petco Park, which opened in 2004. The first four losses were to St Louis, which eliminated the Padres in the division series in 2005 and 2006 (the last time the Padres made the postseason), as well as in 1996 when the Padres played at Jack Murphy Stadium.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Late-Breaker is on the Oak A's at 3:10 ET.

The A's bounced back from a 4-1 Game 1 loss to take Game 2 by the score of 5-3. That sent the series to a deciding Game 3 on Thursday but which pitchers the White Sox and A's would send to the mound for that deciding game was unknown until about 12 noon ET. The White Sox have chosen 25-year-old rookie Dane Dunning (2-0, 3.97 ERA), who made seven starts in the regular season. The A's have chosen Mike Fiers (6-3, 4.58 ERA). With that pitching matchup set, I've released a Late-Breaker on Oakland.

The A's have gone 6-1 in Dunning's seven starts but in his most recent two, he's allowed eight ERs on nine hits over seven innings. He's never faced the A's and this marks his first postseason start. The A's considered lefty Sean Manaea but chose NOT to tempt fate, as the White Sox ran their record to 15-0 when facing lefty starters this season when they beat Oakland starter Jesus Luzardo in the series opener. Instead, it will be Fiers. Here's the rub with him. Since joining Oakland in August of 2018 (from Detroit), he has made 54 regular season starts for the A's, who have gone 39-15 (.722) in those contests! That includes the team going 23-4 (.852) in his 27 home starts!

Oakland avoids Chicago's perfect record against lefties this year by choosing Fiers, plus how can one argue with the team's W/L record when he's started at home? One last thing, The White Sox have won just 21 of 47 games started by opposing right-handers this year.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Cin Reds at 12:08 ET.

The Atlanta Braves entered this 60-game season off back-to-back NL East titles and added a third by going 35-25 to earn the NL's No. 2 seed. The Cincinnati Reds came into 2020 off SIX consecutive losing seasons (having lost 94-plus games four different years) to go 31-29 and earn the NL's No. 7. Cincinnati won 11 of its last 14 games to make the postseason for the first time since 2013. The Braves led the majors in OPS (.832) and ranked second in team BA (.268), runs (348), HRs (103) and slugging (.483). In stark contrast, the Cincinnati offense ranked last in the majors with a .212 average this season.

Game 1 was Wednesday and featured a terrific pitching matchup of Trevor Bauer vs Max Fried. The result? Wednesday's starters combined to throw 14.2 scoreless innings and strike out 17 batters in a game eventually won 1-0 by Atlanta in 13 innings. NO postseason game had ever gone so deep into extra innings before the first run was scored and the teams combined for a playoff-record 37 strikeouts. "Winning that first game in a short series is huge," Braves manager Brian Snitker said. "It certainly adds to the stress (if you don't)." The Braves have lost 10 consecutive postseason series openers, including a wild-card game, since a victory in 2001, which was also the last year they won a playoff series.

Taking the mound and hoping to continue Atlanta's pitching momentum will be Ian Anderson (3-2, 1.95 ERA), the Braves' first-round draft choice in 2016 He'll be opposed by Cincinnati's Luis Castillo (4-6, 3.21 ERA). Castillo started strong in 2019 with an 11-4 mark and enjoyed his first All-Star selection (was 8-3 with a 2.29 ERA at the break). His 11th win came on August 5 but he won just FOUR of his last nine starts (Reds were just 4-5 in those games). However, his 15 wins were fifth-best in the NL and his 226 strikeouts tied for 12th in strikeouts per nine innings (10.7). Castillo set the bar high on the heels of his breakout season in 2019, claiming before the season that he'd like to capture the National League Cy Young Award in 2020, However, he didn't earn his FIRST win of 2020 until his eighth start of the season. He was 0-5 with a 4.10 ERA through his first seven starts (Reds were 1-6). Castillo got things straightened out in September and was a key figure in Cincinnati's surge, He went 4-0 with a 1.26 ERA and a 33-9 KW ratio in his first four September starts, before losing 7-3 on Sep 26 at Minnesota (4 IP / 4 ERs)

Anderson made six starts since being promoted in midseason. He began his career by beating the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. In his final regular-season outing on Sep 24 against the Miami Marlins, Anderson pitched 5.2 innings and allowed three runs, all unearned. The Braves were 3-33 in his six starts but he also owns a 1.08 WHIP and .172 BAA to go along with his sub-2.00 ERA. The question has to be, is he ready for primetime? Castillo's big moment this season came when he threw a two-hit complete game against the Cardinals, jump-starting a streak of 12 wins in 16 games that pushed the Reds into the playoffs. This will be his FIRST postseason start but he's got 90 career starts on his resume, to Anderson's SIX.

I won with Atlanta in Game 1 but let's be honest. The Braves were VERY lucky. The Red out-hit the Braves 11-6, left 13 men on base by going 1 of 12 with RISP. Cincinnati loaded the bases in the 11th inning against reliever Darren O'Day but Tyler Matzek struck out Mike Moustakas to end the inning. They had runners on the corners with no outs in the 12th before Matzek struck out the next three batters. They had the bases loaded with one out in the 13th and again failed to push home a run. Are you kidding me?

This series is headed to a deciding Game 3 on Friday, when the Braves will again face the 'demons' of their playoff series since 2001. However, that's Thursday's 'story.' Today at "high noon," the Reds win!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Tor Blue Jays at 4:07 ET.

MLB's 60-game schedule was limited to regional play, so SEVEN of the eight wild card series featured teams that haven't met since 2019! The exception is the series between AL East rivals Toronto and Tampa Bay. Of the four AL games played on Tuesday, the top-seed Rays were the only higher seed to win (three of four road teams won). Former Cy Young winner Blake Snell took a no-hitter into the sixth inning, shortstop Willy Adames made splashy defensive plays and Manuel Margot delivering a two-run HR, the AL East champions opened the playoffs Tuesday with a 3-1 victory over the eight-seeded Toronto Blue Jays.

The Jays are in a win or go home scenario on Tuesday, as Hyun-Jin Ryu (5-2, 2.69 ERA) will take the mound against Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 4.08 ERA). Ryu went 14-5 (2.32 ERA) with the Dodgers last season, the THIRD time in five full seasons with LA that he won 14 times. Ryu was signed as a free agent in the offseason and has been one of MLB's better offseason acquisitions. He got off to a slow start in July's two starts, allowing eight ERs on 13 hits in nine innings (8.00 ERA) but the Rays would go 9-3 in his 12 starts, justifying his FA signing. Glasnow opened the 2019 season 5–0 with a 1.75 ERA, earning him American League Pitcher of The Month honors for April. However, after straining his arm against the Yankees on May 10, Glasnow went to the 10 Day IL. He went to the 60 day IL on May 26, before returning in September to make four starts. He did not get past the fifth inning in any of them, finishing the 2019 season with a 6–1 record and a 1.78 ERA in 60.2 innings (0.89 WHIP and .186 BAA) over 12 starts (Rays were 10-2). His ERA (4.08 to 1.78), his WHIP (1.13 to 0.89) and his BAA (.200 to .186) are all higher this season but the Rays have gone 9-2 in his 11 starts, including having won EIGHT in a row entering this contest.

So why take Ryu? Ryu has pitched n]better on the road all season, with a 2.20 ERA and .195 BAA, compared to a 3.15 ERA and .269 BAA. He's also made eight postseason appearances while with the Dodgers, while Glasnow made two starts in the playoffs against the Astros in 2019, losing both while posting a 7.71 ERA. Glasnow didn't face the Blue Jays this season but he's 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA in six career starts against them (team is 2-4). This series is headed to a deciding Game 3.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Atl Braves at 12:08 ET.

The Atlanta Braves entered this 60-game season off back-to-back NL East titles and added a third by going 35-25 to earn the NL's No. 2 seed. However, the Braves have dropped NINE straight postseason series since beating Houston during the 2001 NLDS, not including an additional one-game 2012 NL wild-card loss against St Louis.

As for the Reds, they came into 2020 off SIX consecutive losing seasons (having lost 94-plus games four different years) to go and earn the NL's No. 7. Cincinnati won 11 of its last 14 games to make the postseason for the first time since 2013. 

Checking in on the two teams we find that the Braves led the majors in OPS (.832) and ranked second in team BA (.268), runs (348), HRs (103) and slugging (.483). First baseman Freddie Freeman is an MVP candidate after batting .341 with 13 HRs and 53 RBI, while Marcell Ozuna wasn't far behind in batting .338 plus led the NL in HRs (18) and RBI (56). in Stark contrast, the Cincinnati offense ranked last in the majors with a .212 average this season. The Reds were seventh with 90 HRs, with Eugenio Suarez hitting 15 (led Cincy with 38 RBI) and Nick Castellanos hitting 14 home runs. However, over Cincy's last 27 games, he homered ONLY four times while batting .170.

Pitching has carried the Reds this season and the Reds send their ace Trevor Bauer to the mound, although Atlanta counters with its ace, Max Fried. Bauer posted an NL-best 1.73 ERA along with a 0.79 WHIP (100-17 KW) and .159 BAA. However, he is just 5-4 in his 11 starts, while the Reds were just 6-5. As for Fried, he delivered an outstanding regular season for an Atlanta pitching staff that was decimated by injuries. He made 11 starts, going 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .211 BAA. The Braves went 10-1 in his starts.

I noted Atlanta's playoff woes at the top and the Braves CAN'T expect to win this series if they DON'T win Game 1. Fried sustained an ankle injury early in his most recent start on Sep 23 but he's "good to go" for Wednesday. More good news for Atlanta comes with the news that leadoff hitter Ronald Acuna Jr.(14 HRs in 46 games) is expected to be ready for Game 1 despite a wrist issue. It seems like many (most) think Bauer will win the NL';s Cy Young award but I'd vote Fried and will add that over the last two seasons, the Braves are 32-9 (-plus 18.1 units) in his regular season starts. Make that 33-9 after today's contest.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oak A's at 3:00 ET.

MLB's pandemic-shortened regular season was limited to regional play and as the postseason begins, SEVEN of the eight wild-card series involve teams that haven't played any meaningful games against each other since last year (the lone exception being Tampa Bay taking Toronto in an all-AL East matchup). The Oakland A's will host the Chicago White Sox in Game 1 of this best-of-three series and the two teams are not only meeting for the first time this season but also for the first time EVER in postseason play. 

The White Sox were coming off a 72-89 season in 2019 but at 35-25, earned the first AL wild-card spot (No. 7 seed). Chicago tied Cleveland for second in the AL Central (both teams finished just ONE game back of the first-place Twins) but the Indians won the tiebreaker thanks to an 8-2 head-to-head record. Chicago's playing postseason baseball for the first time since 2008. The A's enter the 2020 season off back-to-back wild card appearances in 2018 and 2019, jumping out to a 12-4 start and NEVER looking back in the AL West. Oakland finished 36-24 (AL's No. 2 seed) while cruising to its first AL West title since 2013, SEVEN games ahead of the second-place Astros. 

Game 1's starting pitchers are Chicago's Lucas Giolito (4-3, 3.48 ERA) and Oakland's Jesus Luzardo (3-2, 4.12 ERA). Giolito struggled in his rookie season (2018) with a 10-13 record (6.13 ERA and 1.48 WHIP). However, he went 14-9 in 2019, lowering his ERA by more than 2 1/2 runs (3.41) and his WHIP to 1.06. He was named Chicago's Opening Day starter but lasted just 3.2 innings while allowing seven ERs in a 10-5 loss to the Twins. However, he pitched well enough over his next nine starts (2.54 ERA) to have the White Sox go 7-2. Giolito went winless in his last three starts (Chicago was 1-2) due mostly to getting just seven runs of offensive support, allowing eight ERs in 17.2 innings (4.08 ERA). He's 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in two career starts against the A's.

Luzardo made just six relief appearances in 2019, posting a 1.50 ERA and 0.67 WHIP but he pitched a total of just 12 innings. He made 12 appearances in 2020 (nine starts), with the A's going 6-3 in those starts (his ERA was 3.83). Looking a little closer we find that Luzardo has pitched well at home this season, going 3-1 in six starts (team was 5-1) with a 2.40 ERA and a .215 BAA. He shut out three of his six home opponents, the Rangers (8/4), D'backs (8/19) and Giants (9/19), over 17.1 innings. Luzardo pitched three innings of one-hit, shutout relief in last year's loss to the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL wild-card game in his only previous postseason experience.

As noted, the A's played in the postseason in each of the last two seasons, while the White Sox are in the playoffs for the first time since 2008. The White Sox were 32-16 and had the best record in the AL on Sep 15 but 'limp in' having lost NINE of their last 12. The A's were a combined 102-60 (.630) at home in 2018 and 2019 but improved their home winning percentage in 2020's shortened season, going 22-10 (.688). There is little margin for error in these best-of-three series and I want the home dog in this Game 1.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Min Twins at 2:00 ET.

The Minnesota Twins won the AL Central in 2019 at 101-61, the team's first 100-win season since 1965. The Twins repeated as NL Central champs in 2020's 60-game schedule, going 36-24 (one game ahead of the White Sox and Indians). Minnesota is the AL's No. 3 seed and gets to play this best-of-three series at home against the AL's No. 6 seed. It's hard to believe but that No. 6 seed is the 29-31 Houston Astros, one of TWO teams in MLB 2020 to make the expanded playoff-field with a losing record (Milwaukee Brewers are the other). With allude respect to Milwaukee, the Brewers didn't enter the current season coming off THREE straight division titles (AL West), while winning 101, 103 and 107 games, respectively from 2017-2019. The Astros made the World Series in both 2017 (won) and 2019 (lost).

Game 1 of the series will feature Zach Greinke (3-3, 4.03 ERA) going up against Kenta Maeda (6-1, 2.70 ERA). Greinke won the AL's Cy Young award back in 2009 with KC (16-8, 2.16 ERA) and from 2011-19 he was one of MLB's top starters. However, he's NOT had a good season in 2020 and is 5-9 with a 4.64 ERA in 24 career appearances (20 starts / teams are just 5-15!) against the Twins, including 1-4 with a 5.14 ERA in seven starts at Target Field. He also has NEVER had much success in the postseason. He's made 16 postseason starts, going 3-6 with a 4.21 ERA, which is 0.84 higher than his career ERA of 3.37 in the regular season. Maeda had solid success as a starter in his first two seasons with the Dodgers (won 29 games) but was moved to the bullpen last season. However, Maeda made it clear in an interview with the Minneapolis Star Tribune prior to the season that he prefers a starting role. The Twins placed him in the starting rotation right away and Maeda has made that decision look VERY good, as the Twins are 8-3 in his starts and he owns a 0.75 WHIP (MLB-best!) and .168 BAA to go along with his solid 2.70 ERA.

Yes, the Twins have lost 16 straight postseasons and you may have heard that Houston manager Dusty Baker has become the first manager in baseball history to lead FIVE different teams to the postseason. Baker had previously taken the Giants (1997, 2000, 2002), Cubs (2003), Reds (2010, 2012, 2013), and Nationals (2016, 2017) the playoffs. Here' what has been left out regarding Baker's postseason record. His 2002 Giants led the Angels 3-2 in the World Series and were up 5-0 in Game 6 entering the bottom of the 7th. However, the Angels would rally for a 6-5 win and capture the World Series in Game 7. Baker moved to the Cubs in 2003 and in the NLCS vs Miami, led 3-1 before losing THREE in row. Game 6 was the infamous "Steve Bartman game," when the Marlins scored EIGHT runs in the top of the 8th inning to erase a 3-0 deficit. One cue, Baker's Cubs lost Game 7. Since that debacle, Baker's teams have lost all FOUR postseason series he's managed in, plus lost one "winner-take-all" wild card game. You really want to back a Baker-coached team? 

Getting down to brass tacks, after being MLB's best road team the previous three seasons from 2017-19 (157-86, .646), the Astros went a deplorable 9-23 (.281) on the road in 2020. They compiled a 5.66 team ERA. Meanwhile, the Twins were a MLB-best 24-7 (.774) at home, producing a 2.89 team ERA. Here's the clincher. Greinke's made five road starts in 2020 and the Astros have lost ALL five, while Maeda has made five home starts, with the Twins winning ALL five (1.91 ERA / .109 BAA). That's 100% against and for!

Good luck...Larry

 My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the Min Twins at 3:10 ET

The Twins won the AL Central title last season with a 101-61 record (franchise's first 100-win season since 1965) and can secure their second consecutive divisional title with a home win on Sunday over the Reds. 36-23 Minnesota can also claim the NL Central's top spot with a loss by the Chicago White Sox (35-24) to the Chicago Cubs. Cincinnati, clinched its first postseason berth since 2013 with a 7-2 victory in Friday's series opener and are likely headed to Atlanta to play the Braves in the wild-card series starting Wednesday.

Reds manager David Bell debated whether to bring Cy Young candidate Trevor Bauer (NL-best 1.73 ERA) back on three day's rest but instead will start Sonny Gray (5-3, 3.73 ERA). In the end, he felt it was more important to line up his postseason pitching rotation rather than to potentially move up in the National League seeding. The Twins will counter with veteran Rich Hill (2-2, 3.27 ERA).

Gray put together a pair of 14-win seasons for the Oakland A's in 2014 and '15 (2.91 ERA over those two seasons) but struggled the next four seasons from 2016-18 with the A's and Yankees going 26-32 with a 4.59 ERA, before revitalizing his career with the Reds in 2019 (11-8, 2.87 ERA in 175.1 innings, allowing just 122 hits while striking out 205). Gray was one of the best pitchers in the majors through the end of August, going 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA, a 55-15 KW ratio and a BAA of just .180. However, he got 'blown up' in his first two starts of September vs St Louis and the Chicago Cubs, allowing 11 runs, 11 hits, and six walks, while striking out five in just four innings. Only three days after his Sep 10 start, he was placed on the injured list with a mid-back strain. He returned to the mound Tuesday and looked just fine. He pitched five innings and allowed just one run but the Reds wasted his solid effort, never scoring again after taking a 2-0 first-inning lead in a 3-2 loss.

Hill's been "around the block," as this is his 16th season. He owns a 67-44 career record with a 3.80 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He had a pretty good stint with the Dodgers from 2016-19, going 30-16 with his ERAs ranging from 1.83-to-3.66 and his WHIPs from 0.79-to-1.13. He battled arm woes for most of 2019 and he signed a one-year deal with Minnesota in the offseason. He was outstanding in his Minnesota debut back on July 29, holding the visiting Cardinals to two hits and a walk over five innings in a 3-0 victory. He threw 68 pitches, 41 for strikes. However, he then went on the IL for three weeks, He returned on Aug 19 and the Twins lost his next FOUR starts (5.06 ERA). However, his two most recent starts have seen him post a 2.25 ERA over 12 innings with 12 Ks.

Gray owns a 5.30 ERA in seven career starts vs the Twins (teams are 2-5), while Hill owns a 5-3 record and 3.34 ERA in 12 career appearances and 10 starts (teams are 6-40 vs the Reds. This game has a postseason atmosphere and Gray's ONLY postseason appearance was back in a 2017 wild card start for Colorado vs Arizona, when he was able to record just FOUR outs while allowing four runs on seven hits. In comparison, Hill has made 12 appearances (11 starts) for the Dodgers in the postseason the last four years, posting a 2.70 ERA over 50 innings with 62 KS. Oh yeah, Minnesota is a major league-best 24-6 at home this season and a Sunday win would give Minnesota the highest single-season home winning percentage (.806) in MLB history. That's my bet!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Min Twins at 7:10 ET.

The 30-28 Cincinnati Reds clinched their first playoff berth since 2013 with Friday night's 7-2 win at Target Field over the Twins. The team stuck around after the final out on the field to celebrate and with good reason. After all, when St Louis beat the Reds 16-2 back on Sep 1, Cincinnati was a mediocre 15-21. However, the Reds have rebounded to go 15-7 since then, including 10-2 in their last 12 games. The  series continues tonight at Target Field but it's the Twins, not the Reds, who have MUCH more to play for over the weekend. The 35-23 Twins own a one-game lead over both the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians (both are 34-24) heading into the final two games of the regular-season. Minnesota can clinch home field advantage for the wild-card round by winning one game or Cleveland losing one game but can also claim the AL Central title by finishing with two victories. The White Sox own the tiebreaker over the Twins but Minnesota owns the head-to-head tiebreaker with Cleveland or if there should be a three-way tie for first.

Tonight's starting pitchers are Luis Castillo (4-5, 2.86) and Michael Pineda (2-0, 3.18 ERA). Castillo started strong in 2019 with an 11-4 mark and enjoyed his first All-Star selection (was 8-3 with a 2.29 ERA at the break). His 11th win came on August 5 but he won just FOUR of his last nine starts (Reds were just 4-5 in those games). However, his 15 wins were fifth-best in the NL and his 226 strikeouts tied for 12th in strikeouts per nine innings (10.7). Castillo set the bar high on the heels of his breakout season in 2019, claiming before the season that he'd like to capture the National League Cy Young Award in 2020, However, he didn't earn his FIRST win of 2020 until his eighth start of the season. He was 0-5 with a 4.10 ERA through his first seven starts (Reds were 1-6).

However, Castillo has been a key figure in Cincinnati's September surge, going 4-0 with a 1.26 ERA and a 33-9 KW ratio in four starts. Pineda made his MLB debut with Seattle back in 2011 but was traded to the Yankees in 2012. Injuries kept him sidelined until 2014 when he made 14 starts, going 5-5 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. However, from 2015-17, he was just 26-26 with an ERA of 4.56. Tommy John surgery sidelined him in July of 2017. Pineda signed a two-year, $10 million contract with the Minnesota Twins in December of 2017 but would not pitch at all in 2018 due to a torn meniscus in his right knee.. He was 11-5 (4.01 ERA) for Minnesota in 2019 but his season was cut short when he received a 60-game suspension for testing positive for hydrochlorothiazide.

He returned to the mound on Sep 1, 2020, making his first start since Sep 6 of last season. He hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his four starts this season and comes in off an 8-1 victory over the Cubs in Wrigley Field last Saturday when he allowed one run on four hits over five innings. He's 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 21-4 KW ratio in his four September starts (Twins are 4-0!). Castillo is red-hot but the Reds could be a little drained off last night's playoff-clinching win, while the Twins have the AL's No. 3 seed clearly in their sights!  Minnesota suffered just its SIXTH loss in 29 games at Target Field in 2020 (Twins are a MLB-best 23-6 at home) and I'm betting this is the perfect situation for them to grab a VERY important win!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Phi Phillies at 7:07 ET.

The Phillies lost 6-4 Friday night 6-4 at Tropicana Field to the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays have already clinched the AL East but can clinch the AL's overall No. 1 seed with a win here. Philadelphia can still make the playoffs but the Phillies need help. Here's what Philly knows for sure. Friday's loss combined with Miami's 4-3 win over the Yankees in New York in 10 innings meant the 28-30 Phillies can only finish tied with the 30-28 Marlins, who hold the tiebreaker edge and are guaranteed second place and a playoff spot for the first time since 2003. The Phillies can't finish any better than third in the NL East this season and there is just ONE wild card spot left in the NL. Either the 29-27 Cards or 28-30 Brewers will nail down the No. 2 spot in the NL Central, so the Phillies are 'fighting' the loser of that race plus the 29-29 Giants for that final wild card spot.

Tonight's pitching matchup features Philly's Zack Wheeler (4-1, 2.67 ERA) and Tampa Bay's John Curtiss (3-0, 1.85 ERA).Wheeler signed a $118 million free-agent contract after completing last season with the Mets and was acquired by Philadelphia to pitch in big games like this. Wheeler was 4-0 with a 2.47 ERA through his first eight starts (Phils were 6-2), having allowed two ERs or less in SIX of those eight starts. However, he's 0-1 over his last two starts (team is 0-2) with a 3.46 ERA. He has never faced the Rays The Rays send Curtiss to mound to be used as an "Opener." this is his 17th appearance of 2020 but just his third 'start.' He was used for just 1.1 innings in each of his first two. His ERA (1.85), WHIP (0.86), KW ratio (25-3) and BAA (.202) are ALL impressive numbers but note that he's pitched a total of just 24.1 innings.

The Phillies are hardly a favorite to grab that final NL wild card spot but "hope springs eternal" heading into this contest. Is Wheeler really the "big time" starter the Phillies think he is? I'm NOT sure about that but I do expect him to pitch VERY well here.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Playoff Hopefuls Showdown in on the StL Cardinals at 7:07 ET.

The Milwaukee Brewers and the St Louis Cardinals split a Friday doubleheader, with the Brewers winning the first game 3-0 and the Cardinals winning the nightcap 9-1. The 28-30 Brewers are on the brink of elimination in the NL wild-card race and have quite frankly been playing catch up all season, since they have never reached the high side of .500. They must now win their last two games to have any chance of participating in postseason baseball. Meanwhile, the 29-27 Cardinals are still in the hunt for the NL Central's second-place playoff slot.

Taking the mound will be Milwaukee's Brandon Woodruff (2-5, 3.43 ERA) and St Louis' Adam Wainwright (5-2, 3.05 ERA). Woodruff had a breakout season in 2019, making the All Star team. He posted his 11th victory in his first start after the All-Star break but then suffered an oblique strain that sidelined him for nearly two months. He made just three starts (including a wild card game vs the Nats) after returning on Sep 17. Of note is, the Brewers were a MONEY-MAKING 18-4 in his 22 regular season starts in 2019. The Brewers are just 5-7 in Woodruff's 12 starts in 2020, despite the fact that he's allowed three ERs or less in 11 of those 12 starts.

St Louis converted Wainwright to a starter in 2007 and over the next seven seasons, he twice won 20 games and two other times won 19 games. During those four seasons, (2009, '10, '13 and '14), he twice finished second in the Cy Young voting and twice finished third. Injuries limited him to less than 10 starts in TWO of the next four years (2015-18) but at 37, he made 31 starts in 2019. He won five decisions last September to finish with his most victories (14) since winning 20 in 2014. Wainwright drew the season's second start on the strength of the throwing program he maintained during the pandemic shutdown. Wainwright's been excellent this season, allowing three ERs or less in EIGHT of his nine starts. He's pitched into the sixth inning in all but one start, the exception being a five-inning effort in a doubleheader game (7 innings). 

Wainwright is 18-10 with a 2.45 ERA in 43 career appearances against the Brewers, including 36 starts (Cards are 24-12). These two squared off in the first half of a doubleheader back on Sep 16, a game the Cards won 4-2, as Wainwright pitched ALL seven innings, allowing two runs with a KW ratio of 9-1. Wainwright's had a very good career and here at 39-years-old, he's posted the lowest BBA of his career (2.12), 40 points lower than his career average of .252! Wainwright wants another postseason run and increases the Cards' chances by winning here. Bye-Bye Brewers!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on the Min Twins at 8:10 ET.

The Cincinnati Reds were just in 2019 but 75-87 (16 games out of first in the NL Central) but they enter Friday having won NINE of 11. At 28-28, Cincy is in a dogfight for both second place in the National League Central and/or a wild-card berth. Had the season ended after their 6-1 victory over visiting Milwaukee on Wednesday night, the Reds would have been the No. 8 seed heading to Los Angeles to open their best-of-three wild-card series with the Dodgers on Wednesday.

The Minnesota Twins won the AL Central title in 2019 with a 101-61 record, the franchise's first 100-win season since the 1965 season (lost a seven-game World Series to the Dodgers and Sandy Koufax). The Twins have been a little streaky in 2020 but clinched a playoff berth for the second year in a row along with securing the team's third postseason appearance in the last four years with an 8-1 Saturday win at the Cubs. 35-22 Minnesota moved a half-game ahead of the Chicago White Sox for first place in the AL Central with its fourth straight win, 7-6, over visiting Detroit on Wednesday night. While the Twins had an off day yesterday, their advantage stretched to a full game after Chicago lost at Cleveland on Thursday.

Taking the mound tonight will be Cincy's Tyler Mahle (2-2, 3.57 ERA), while Minnesota counters with Jose Berrios (5-3, 3.72 ERA). Mahle was AWFUL in 2019, going 2-10 with a 5.14 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and .266 BAA. He's been MUCH better in 2020's nine appearances (eight starts). His ERA is down to 3.57, his WHIP to 1.10 and his BAA is down 75 points to .191. Mahle is 2-1 with a 3.10 ERA in his last five starts (Reds are 4-1).

Berrios went 14-8 in 2019, matching his career-high win total (was also 14-8 in 2017), en route to earning his second straight All-Star berth while reaching 200 innings for the first time in his four-year career. However, his 2020 season has been up-and-down. However, he is 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA in four September starts (team is 3-1) with 22 strikeouts and six walks in 22 innings.

The "clincher" is the fact that Minnesota owns a major league best 23-5 home record and Berrios' five home starts, he owns a 2.67 ERA and .168 BAA. What's more, the Twins are looking to secure a top-four seed so they can open their AL wild-card series Tuesday at Target Field. Twins win! Twins win!

Good luck...Larry