My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Chi White Sox at 7:10 ET.

Seattle opened this season winning 2-1 and 4-2 at Minnesota but then lost the final two games of that series 10-4 and 4-0, before losing the first of a three-game series in Chicago to the White Sox 3-2 last night. Chicago led the Tigers 3-1 in Detroit on Opening Day but lost 5-4 by allowing two runs in the 8th and 9th innings. However, the White Sox took the last two games of that series 5-2 and 10-1. After a Monday "off day," Chicago won 3-2 in last night's series opener vs Seattle.

Seattle signed reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray (13-7 with a 2.84 ERA in 32 starts in 2021) away from the Toronto Blue Jays to a five-year, $115 million contract in the off season. He allowed one run on three hits over seven innings in a 2-1 win over the Minnesota Twins on Opening Day and gets his second start here, opposed by Chicago's  Dallas Keuchel (9-9, 5.28 in 2021). This will be Keuchel's first start iof 2022 and he is looking for a fresh start after struggling late last season. He posted a 4.25 ERA before the All-Star break before recording a 6.82 mark in 14 games (13 starts) in the second half.

Ray was sharp in his Seattle debut but I'm still somewhat skeptical as to just how good he really is. More importantly, the Mariners are NOT hitting, having scored just 12 runs after five games (2.40 per), while batting .183 (both stats rank 28th of 30 MLB teams!). Keuchel is a solid vet and in 20 career starts vs Seattle, he owns a solid 3.37 ERA and excellent 1.08 WHIP. What's more, he takes the mound for a team that was an AL-best 53-28 at home last season and ione that is averaging 5.50 RPG to open 2022. Great price on the White Sox in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Getaway Day Game of the Week is on the NY Mets at 1:05 ET.

The Mets and Phillies spent a good part of the 2021 season contending in the NL East but both teams were "left in the dust" by Atlanta's second-half surge. The Phillies would finish at 82-80 (6 1/2-games behind the Braves), while the Mets ended the season at 77-85 (11 1/2-games behind the Braves). The Braves have opened a modest 3-3, and as the Mets and Phillies get set to play the "rubber match" of their three-game series on Wednesday afternoon, the Mets are 4-2 and the Phillies 3-2. Philadelphia won 5-4 on Monday but the Mets evened the series Tuesday night when Tylor Megill, pitching in place of injured ace Jacob deGrom, earned his second straight win by tossing 5.1 scoreless innings in New York's 2-0 victory.

Wednesday's pitching matchup is a good one, as Max Scherzer (1-0, 4.50 ERA) is set to be opposed by Aaron Nola (1-0, 6.00 ERA). Scherzer earned the win in his Mets debut on Friday, when he allowed three runs over six innings in New York's 7-3 victory over the Nationals. Nola also won on Friday, even though he gave up four runs in six-plus innings as the Phillies earned a 9-5 Opening Day victory over the Oakland Athletics. All are familiar with Scherzer's career (as well as the HUGE deal he just got from the Mets) but for this particular matchup, let me note that he is 14-4 with a 2.33 ERA in 25 career starts against the Phillies (his teams are 20-5!). Nola also owns a good career record vs the Mets, going 9-3 with a 3.12 ERA in 20 starts, although the Phillies are a more modest 12-8.

Nola went 17-6 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 2018 but has never come close to that since then. Including his Opening Day win here in 2022, Nola's just 27-12 with a 4.12 ERA for the Phillies since the start of 2019 (79 starts). He's really NOT in the class of Scherzer and note that Scherzer was terrific against the Phillies in 2021, going 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA in four starts (Nats were 4-0!). Scherzer is a bargain at this price against a Philadelphia team that hasn't made the postseason for 10 consecutive seasons!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AL/NL Game of the Month is on the LA Dodgers at 7:40 ET.

The Los Angeles Dodgers won 106 games last season but saw their run of EIGHT consecutive NL West titles end when the Giants won 107 games. The Dodgers beat the Giants in an NLDS matchup but lost to the Braves in the NLCS, ending the team's chances to win back-to-back World Series titles. The Twins entered last season off back-to-back years of winning the AL Central but IMPLODED in 2021, finishing 73-89, 20 games behind the division-winning White Sox!

The Dodgers lost TWO of three at Coors Field to open the 2022 season, as an offense billed by some as the best in baseball after adding former National League MVP Freddie Freeman, managed just 11 runs and four extra-base hits over three games. Minnesota also got off to a rough start to its season-opening series, managing just four hits in each of its first two games against the visiting Seattle Mariners while dropping 2-1 and 4-3 decisions. However, the Twins bounced back to win the final two games of the series with a six-homer, 10-4 victory on Sunday followed by a 10-hit, 4-0 win on Monday night.

The Dodgers and Twins will each have a free agent newcomer make his first start when the teams open a two-game series tonight in Minneapolis. Andrew Heaney, who was a combined 8-9 with a 5.83 ERA last season with the Los Angeles Angels and New York Yankees, makes his Dodgers debut after signing a one-year, $8.5 million contract in November. Chris Archer, who went 1-1 with a 4.66 ERA in six appearances (five starts) during an injury-shortened season with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2021, will make his first start for the Twins after signing a one-year, $3.5 million deal on March 28.

Heaney has been around since 2014 but is just 32-38 (4.72 ERA) in his career. Archer is in his 11th season and despite being an All-Star in 2015 and 2017 with the Rays, he hasn't had a winning season since going 10-9 in 2014 (was 9-7 in 2013). Archer has a decent 3.81 ERA in his career but checks in with a career mark of only 61-81. I think most are tired of hearing about Archer's "good stuff" and I am ONE of those people. He's made only three career starts vs LA but at 0-3 with a 6.19 ERA, why should we expect a good effort here, especially against a Dodger lineup that is overdue to have a big game. Meanwhile, Heaney is 1-0 with a 2.95 ERA in three career starts (teams are 3-0) against Minnesota, including 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two starts at Target Field. That win came last July 22, when he outdueled Kenta Maeda in a 3-2 victory for the Angels, allowing two runs on four hits over seven innings while striking out seven.

Dodgers roll!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Chi Cubs at 4:12 ET.

Here's how one preseason magazine summed up the Cubs' situation heading into 2022. "Highly successful early in the 20th century, followed by 100 years of mediocrity, then a six-year burst of winning and now back into the abyss." However, the Cubs opened the season with 5-4 and 9-0 wins, before losing 5-4 on Sunday. The Cubs will spend the current week on the road, beginning with two games in Pittsburgh against the Pirates.

Pittsburgh entered the 2022 season having missed the postseason in each of the last SIX years, with just ONE winning season in that stretch (the 2018 team went 82-79). Pittsburgh opened the season with a four-game series in St Louis. The Pirates lost the first two games, won 9-4 on Saturday and then had Sunday's game rained out. Both teams will be well-rested. The Pirates were scheduled to finish off a four-game series at St. Louis on Monday, but that game was rained out, just like Sunday's was. The Cubs also had a game rained out Friday plus they had Monday off.

Tuesday's starting pitchers will be a pair of left-handers, Chicago's Drew Smyly (11-4, 4.48 ERA with the Braves last season) and Pittsburgh's Jose Quintana (0-3, 6.43 ERA with the Angels and Giants in 2021). Both pitchers began their careers back in 2012 and while Quintana (83-80, 3.84 ERA) has the better overall record (Smyly is 46-39, 4.18 ERA), it's Smyly who is coming off a World Series title with Atlanta last season. 2021 was the best season of his career, making 29 appearances, including 23 starts in which Atlanta went 14-9. As for Quintana, he has made just 33 appearances (just 11 starts) in the 2020 and 2021 season combined, going 0-3 with 6.16 ERA.

Cubs Win! Cubs Win!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Sea Mariners at 7:40 ET.

Seattle finished second in the American League West last season with a 90-72 record, just two games out of a wild-card berth. That extended Seattle's postseason drought to 20 years, as the Mariners last made the playoffs back in 2001, when the team won 116 games, tying a MLB record for most wins in a single season. The Twins entered last season off back-to-back years of winning the AL Central but IMPLODED in 2021, finishing 73-89, 20 games behind the division-winning White Sox! Both teams made big news since last season, as Seattle signed reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray away from the Toronto Blue Jays to a five-year, $115 million contract. As for Minnesota, the Twins signed former Houston shortstop Carlos Correa, arguably the top free agent position player, to a three-year, $105 million deal.

The teams complete a four-game series Monday night at Target Field. Seattle won the first two games 2-1 and 4-3 but then the Twins won 10-4 on Sunday, hitting six HRs (Sanchez had a grand slam0. Taking the mound tonight will be Seattle's Chris Flexen (14-6, 3.61 ERA last season) and Minnesota's Dylan Bundy (2-9, 6.06 ERA with LAA). Flexen' first three seasons were with the Mets (3-11 with a 8.07 ERA and WHIP over 2.00 in 27 appearances, including 11 starts) but he had a breakout year with Seattle in 2021 (see above), as the Mariners went 22-9, in his starts, giving him the best moneyline mark of any starter in MLB at +$1,597. Bundy began his career with Baltimore (four seasons) and spent the last two in LA with the Angels. His career record is just 46-57 (4.72) and his 2021 season was awful. He made  23 appearances (19 starts / team was 8-11) with a 2-9 record and a 6.06 ERA. It's Bundy's Minnesota debut but I'm sure why Minnesota seems so happy to have acquired him, although he does own a 2.43 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in six career starts (3-3 record) vs Mariners.

Flexen has made two career starts vs the Twins (he's 1-0 and his team 2-0) and while it seems unlikely he'll match last season's success, I am confident he will be a solid performer in 2022. One more thing. Seattle was MLB's best moneyline team in MLB in 2021 (+$3,670) and I'll take them here as a slight dog to win the final game of this series.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Division Game of the Month (AL East) is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:05 ET.

The Blue Jays finished just ONE game behind the Yankees for the AL's second wild-card spot in 2021 and many (most?) think Toronto is "the team to beat'' in the AL East in 2022. The Blue Jays scored 20 runs (had seven HRs) in their season-opening three-game series with Orioles but failed to complete a 3-0 sweep on Sunday when they blew a 5-run lead in a 12-6 loss. Monday marks the start of a stretch where 20 of the next 23 games come against the Yankees, Astros and Red Sox, whom the Blue Jays were 22-22 against last season. The Yankees began the season with a three-game home series with the Red Sox, winning 6-5 (11 inn.) on Friday and 4-2 on Saturday, before losing 4-3 last night in the 2022 debut of Sunday Night baseball.

Getting the ball for Toronto will be Alek Manoah, who was 9-2 with a 3.22 ERA in 20 starts, as a rookie in 2021. Jameson Taillon, who underwent offseason ankle surgery, gets the start, as he begins his second season for the Yankees. He said he has not felt any issues since the surgery. Taillon was 8-6 with a 4.30 ERA in 29 starts in 2021 (Yanks were 17-12), coming off a second Tommy John surgery in May 2019. Taillon's a solid starter when healthy (he claims he is to open 2022) but I still favor the Jays behind Manoah, as Toronto was 16-4 in his 20 starts last season, giving him MLB's 9th-best moneyline mark (+$806). Toronto won EIGHT of 10 in the Bronx last season and I have them taking the first contest of this four-game series tonight.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the KC Royals at 2:10 ET.

Cleveland began a new era in 2022 (no longer the Indians, now the Guardians), opening with a four-game series against the Royals in Kansas City. Cleveland lost to the Cubs in the 2016 World Series (led 3-1, before losing the final three games) and followed with THREE more postseason appearances in the next four years (exception was in 2019 when the team won 93 games). However, Cleveland would go just 80-82 in 2021 and looks for a bounce-back season in 2022. The Royals made back-to-back World Series appearances in 2014 (lost 4-3 to the Giants) and in 2015 (beat the Mets 4-1) but have missed the last SIX postseasons, and over the last four years KC is just 217-329 (.397).

The Guardians had trouble scoring runs last season and that was the case in the first two games of this series, as Cleveland lost 3-1 and 1-0 (10 inn,), with a total of just 12 hits in 19 innings. However, the Cleveland bats 'woke up' with Sunday's 17-3 win (22 hits). Oscar Mercado had his first career grand slam and a career-high five RBI. Owen Miller had a career-high four RBI and Jose Ramirez had three hits, three RBI and three runs scored for the Guardians.

Monday's pitching matchup features two young pitchers coming off promising seasons. Cleveland's Aaron Civale was 7-10 (3.69 ERA) in his first two seasons (22 starts) but went 12-5 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 21 starts in 2021 (Cleveland was 14-7). Carlos Hernandez has been overshadowed by Kansas City's quartet of pitchers who were first-round draft picks in 2018 but after appearing in five games (three starts) in 2020, Hernandez proved that he belonged with a solid 2021 season. He made 24 appearances (11 starts), going 6-2 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. The Royals were 8-3 in his 11 starts.

Cleveland's Sunday outburst will NOT carry over and as for Civale, he made 15 starts for Cleveland last season before exiting his June 21 start against the Chicago Cubs with a finger sprain on his pitching hand. He went on the injured list for the next 2 1/2 months. He returned to make six starts and posted a 5.74 ERA. in three career starts vs KC, Civale owns a 5.82 ERA. KC is the play!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Mil Brewers at 2:20 ET.

The Milwaukee Brewers opened the 2022 as favorites to win the NL Central while the Chicago Cubs were seen as also-rans. Here's how one preseason magazine summed up the Cubs' situation. " Highly successful early in the 20th century, followed by 100 years of mediocrity, then a six-year burst of winning and now back into the abyss." However, the Cubs have opened the 2022 season with 5-4 and 9-0 wins, and Sunday look to complete a three-game sweep of the Brewers.

The Brewers own an excellent pitching staff and Sunday' it's Freddy Peralta's turn to get the ball. He was 10-5 with a 2.81 ERA in 27 starts last season (Brewers were 18-9). Peralta is 5-1 with a 3.32 ERA and 59 strikeouts in his career against the Cubs. Chicago hands the ball to Marcus Stroman, who is coming off a 10-13 season with a 3.02 ERA for the Mets in 2021. He made 33 starts and the Mets were 16-17 in his starts. Stroman is 1-1 with a 3.68 ERA in his career against the Brewers.

The Chicago Cubs are off to a flawless start through two games but it's only TWO games. The Cubs look for their first 3-0 start since the 2016 season, while the Brewers look to avoid their first 0-3 start to the season since 2017. Milwaukee is MUCH better than what it has shown so far. The Brewers won 13 of 16 meetings last season against the Cubs, including going 8-2 in Wrigley. NO sweep here!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Division Game of the Month (NL West) is on the Arz D'backs at 8:10 ET.

The San Diego Padres ended a 13-year playoff drought in 2020's 60-game season and were expected to contend for the NL West title in 2021. However, the Padres would finish 79-83, 20 games behind the first-place Giants. The D'backs last made the postseason in 2017 and while Arizona was not expected to be a playoff contender in 2021, no one saw a 52-110 season coming, the second worst in franchise history (the 2004 team was 51-111). No one will be surprised that the D'backs were also MLB's worst moneyline team in 2021 (-$3,941) but more than a few a may be surprised that the Padres (just four games under .500), were the third worst at -$2,738.

The Padres and Diamondbacks meet Saturday from Chase Field for the third contest of this four-game series. The Diamondbacks won 4-2 on Thursday (Opening Day) but the Padres evened things up last night with a 3-0 shutout win. The Padres will hand the ball to Joe Musgrove, who went 11-9 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.08 WHIP (31 starts) last season. Zach Davies will start for the Diamondbacks, coming off a 6-12 season in 2021. He made 32 starts with a 5.78 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. Musgrove clearly had the better season in 2021 (his first with SD) but note that Davies had some good years with Milwaukee (2016-19).

Musgrove has made six career starts vs Arizona, going 2-2 with a 4.24 ERA (teams are 2-4), while Davies is an impressive 5-0 with a 2.79 ERA in seven career starts vs San Diego (teams are 6-1). I'm ''barking' with the home dog here, hoping Davies can rely on some 'muscle memory' up against the Padres.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Cle Indians at 4:10 ET.

Cleveland began a new era in 2022 (no longer the Indians, now the Guardians), opening with a four-game series against the Royals in Kansas City. Cleveland lost to the Cubs in the 2016 World Series (led 3-1, before losing the final three games) and followed with THREE more postseason appearances in the next four years (exception was in 2019 when the team won 93 games). However, Cleveland would go just 80-82 in 2021 and looks for a bounce-back season in 2022. The Royals made back-to-back World Series appearances in 2014 (lost 4-3 to the Giants) and in 2015 (beat the Mets 4-1) but have missed the last SIX postseasons, and over the last four years KC is just 217-329 (.397). The teams played Game 1 of the series Thursday. In a matchup of former Cy Young Award winners, Cleveland ace Shane Bieber and erstwhile Royals star Zach Greinke dueled to a 1-all stalemate before turning the game over to the bullpens on a cold day at Kauffman Stadium. KC's two-run 8th was the difference, as the Royals won 3-1.

Saturday's starting pitchers will be Cleveland's Zach Plesac (10-6, 4.67 ERA in 2021) and KC's Brad Keller (8-12, 5.39 ERA in 2021). Plesac missed a month and a half after suffering a thumb fracture when he "aggressively" ripped off his jersey following a rough outing in late May. He made 15 starts after his injury and went 9-6 in 15 starts. His 4.67 ERA was almost 1 1/2-runs higher than it was in his first two seasons (3.32). However, Plesac's 2021 season was MUCH better than KC's Keller. He gave up 16 ERs over 12 innings in his first four starts and while he eventually found some rhythm, his season-ending ERA of 5.39 was his lowest of the season!

Here's the "clincher." Keller has pitched well vs Cleveland (2.13 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in seven starts) but has little to show for it (he's 1-2 and the Royals 3-4). However, Plesac has DOMINATED the Royals in three-year career, going 6-0 with 2.80 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in nine starts. The Indians are 8-1 in those starts, a winning percentage of 89%! Cleveland (with Plesac) is the play!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* is on the Min Twins at 2:10 ET.

Seattle finished second in the American League West last season with a 90-72 record, just two games out of a wild-card berth. That extended Seattle's postseason drought to 20 years, as the Mariners last made the playoffs back in 2001, when the team won 116 games, tying a MLB record for most wins in a single season. The Twins entered last season off back-to-back years of winning the AL Central but IMPLODED in 2021, finishing 73-89, 20 games behind the division-winning White Sox! Both teams made big news since last season, as Seattle signed reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray away from the Toronto Blue Jays to a five-year, $115 million contract. As for Minnesota, the Twins signed former Houston shortstop Carlos Correa, arguably the top free agent position player, to a three-year, $105 million deal.

Seattle won 2-1 on Friday, as Ray came through by allowing just one run on three hits in seven innings. Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert, who went 6-5 with a 4.68 ERA in 24 starts as a rookie last season, will try to follow the example Robbie Ray set, as Gilbert faces the Twins for the first time in his career. He'll be opposed by Minnesota right-hander Sonny Gray, who went 7-9 with a 4.19 ERA last season in Cincinnati. Gray is 5-3 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 12 career starts against Seattle (his teams are a more modest 6-6). I'll note that Seattle was MLB's top moneyline team in 2021 (+$3,670 at $100/game) and that the Mariners were 16-8 in Gilbert's starts, giving him the third-best momeyline mark among starting pitchers in 2021 at +$1,106.

I took the Twins against the Mariners on Friday and said, "My feeling is that the Twins will put last season's 'nightmare' behind them and will remind all that over the previous three seasons the Twins were 119-74 (.617) at home in Target Field." Ray shut down the Minnesota bats Friday but I'd be surprised if Gilbert replicates his rookie season. Gray is a seasoned vet who owns a 3.61 ERA over nine seasons, allowing fewer hits (1,093) than IP (1,267.1), with 1,221 Ks. Twins are favored here for a reason!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the LA Angels at 9:38 ET.

My 10* Season Opener was on the Astros over the Angels on Thursday night and I cashed, as Houston won 3-1. I pointed out that Houston has been an excellent road team over the last five seasons (save the 60-game 2020 season) and also that Shohei Ohtani had had little success against the Astros, posting  a 6.87 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in five career starts. Ohtani was fine (4.2 IP with one ER and 9 Ks) but the LA bats were shut down. Valdez pitched 6.2 scoreless innings and three relievers allowed just one run over 2.1 IP (Angels had only FOUR hits).

The teams are back at it tonight from Angel Stadium. Jake Odorizzi gets the nod for the Astros and Reid Detmers for the Angels. Odorizzi showed some promise back with Tampa Bay (2013-17) but he has had just ONE winning season since leaving the Rays and that was in 2019 (15-7 with a 3.51 ERA with the Twins). He was 6-7 with a 4.21 ERA with Houston last season. The Angels were originally going to go with Sandoval but will instead try another lefty, Reid Detmers. He made five starts for the Angels last season but was just 1-3 with a 7.40 ERA and 1.79 WHIP.

Clearly, I'm NOT backing the Angels because of Detmers but rather I'm going against the overrated Odorizzi, while expecting the Angels' big sticks to 'wake up.' LA's 1-2-3 hitters last night (Ohtani, Trout and Rendon) combined to go 1 of 11. Handicapping MLB is "about the numbers" but it's also about 'feel.' The bet Friday is on a bounce-back by the Angels.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Min Twins at 4:10 ET.

The Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins will open the season Friday afternoon, after their scheduled Thursday opener was pushed back because of the forecast of rain and snow and highs in the mid-30s in Minneapolis. Seattle finished second in the American League West with a 90-72 record, just two games out of a wild-card berth. That extended Seattle's postseason drought to 20 years, as the Mariners last made the playoffs back in 2001, when the team won 116 games, tying a MLB record for most wins in a single season (one COULDN'T make that up!). The Twins entered last season off back-to-back years of winning the AL Central but IMPLODED in 2021, finishing 73-89, 20 games behind the division-winning White Sox! Both teams made big news since last season, as Seattle signed reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray away from the Toronto Blue Jays to a five-year, $115 million contract. As for Minnesota, the Twins signed former Houston shortstop Carlos Correa, arguably the top free agent position player, to a three-year, $105 million deal.

Seattle will give the ball to the left-handed Ray (13-7 with a 2.84 ERA in 32 starts in 2021) for this Opening Day start, while Minnesota's choice of its Opening Day starter may come as a surprise. The Twins traded with the Reds for starting pitcher Sonny Gray and landed two other veteran free agent starters in Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer. Combined, the trio has started nine Opening Day games -- Archer (4), Gray (3) and Bundy (2) -- but it will be rookie right-hander Joe Ryan who gets the call against Ray on Thursday.

Seattle manager Scott Servais had this to say about Ray. "This guy is the reigning Cy Young Award winner, and he's had a really good camp," Servais told the Seattle Times. "I'm certainly excited to see what he can do for us the next few years." It's not much of a history but I will note that Ray is 1-1 with a 6.91 ERA in four career games and three starts against the Twins, including 1-1 with a 8.59 ERA at Target Field.

As for Ryan, he was obtained from Tampa Bay in a July trade for DH Nelson Cruz, and went 2-1 with a 4.05 ERA in five starts with 30 strikeouts and five walks in 26.2 innings after starring for Team USA in the Tokyo Olympics. He has never faced the Mariners and will be the first rookie to start on Opening Day for the Twins since Tom Hall in 1969. "He's absolutely earned the opportunity to go out there in the first game of the season for us," Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said of Ryan. "He's pitched well from the very first day I've ever seen him pitch, and came into camp in a really good spot, put himself in a good position, and this is the way things fell for him."

My feeling is that the Twins will put last season's 'nightmare' behind them and will remind all that the previous three seasons, the Twins were 119-74 (.617) at home in Target Field. I'm taking the rookie over the reigning Cy Young winner in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Det Tigers at 1:10 ET.

The Chicago White Sox ended an 11-year postseason drought in 2020 with a wild card appearance. The White Sox then ran away with the American League Central title last season with a 93-69 record, winning the division by 13 games. The Tigers finished 77-85 in 2021 (16 games behind the White Sox), as Detroit missed the postseason for the EIGHTH consecutive season. The two teams open their respective 2022 seasons with a three-game series in Detroit.

The White Sox are again expected to be the AL Central's best team but watch out for Detroit, as the Tigers were much improved last year in their first season under manager AJ Hinch. Chicago ace Lance Lynn will miss the first month or two of the season recovering from right knee surgery, so the White Sox will give Lucas Giolito (11-9 with a 3.53 ERA in 31 starts in 2021) the Opening Day start. Detroit will counter with free agent left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez. He was a 19-game winner in 2019 for Boston and went 13-8 with a 4.74 ERA for the Red Sox last season. Rodriguez was sharp in spring training and pitched five-plus innings in his last preseason start.

Giolito is a modest 5-5 with a 4.57 ERA in 14 career starts vs Detroit (team is 8-6), while Rodriguez is 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in his five career starts vs Chicago (Red Sox were 4-1). Rodriguez has been one of MLB's top earners (vs the moneyline) these last few years and I'll back him in his debut with Detroit as a home dog.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MLB 2022 Season-Opener is on the Hou Astros at 9:38 ET.

The Houston Astros remain the team everyone 'loves to hate' and will open the season with a four-game series with the Angels on Thursday night. Houston won the AL West last season with a 95-67 record, capturing the division for the FOURTH time in the last five years. Houston won the 2017 World Series (over the Yankees), lost the 2019 World Series (to the Nats) and then lost it again last season to the Braves. Meanwhile, the Angels are coming off a 77-85 season and the franchise's only World Series title came back in 2002. It seems like even more than two decades to Angel fans, as the team has missed the postseason 11 times in the last 12 years (got swept 3-0 in a 2014 ALDS).

Shortstop Carlos Correa surprised most by signing with the Minnesota Twins (Astros offered $160 million over five years, before he took $105 million over three years from the Twins) but Houston's lineup remains 'loaded' and its pitching staff has a number of rising stars (note: Don't forget about Verlander, who is set to give it a go with a repaired elbow). The Angels feature not only Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon but also the defending American League MVP Shohei Ohtani. Trout and Rendon missed most of last season because of injuries, with Trout playing in just 36 games and Rendon in 58. Trout didn't play at all after May 17, while Rendon's last game was July 4. Ohtani hit 46 HRs with 100 RBI (also 26 SBs) plus went 9-2 with a 3.18 ERA, striking out 156 batters in 130.1 IP.

Tonight's pitching matchup will feature Framber Valdez (11-6, 3.14 ERA last season) and Shohei Ohtani (see above). Much has been made about Houston's 'cheating at home' (rightfully) but in the years; in question (2017-2019), Houston was MLB's best road team, going 156-86 (.645) in that three-year span. The Astros were a solid 44-37 on the road last season and taking a close look at tonight's starting pitchers, Valdez rates an edge over Ohtani. Valdez has made seven career starts against the Angels, going 5-2 with a 4.07 ERA, while Ohtani has been abysmal against Houston in five career starts, going 0-2 with a 6.87 ERA nd 1.73 WHIP in five career starts (Angels are 1-4).

Houston as an underdog is the play!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Division Game of the Month (AL Central) is on the Cle Guardians at 4:10 ET.

It's Opening Day 2022 and Cleveland starts a new era (no longer the Indians, now the Guardians) with a four-game series against the Royals in Kansas City. Cleveland lost to the Cubs in the 2016 World Series (led 3-1, before losing the final three games) and followed with THREE more postseason appearances in the next four years (exception was in 2019 when the team won 93 games). However, Cleveland would go just 80-82 in 2021 and looks for a bounce-back season in 2022. The Royals made back-to-back World Series appearances in 2014 (lost 4-3 to the Giants) and in 2015 (beat the Mets 4-1) but have missed the last SIX postseasons, and over the last four years KC is just 217-329 (.397).

Thursday's starting pitchers will be a pair of two former Cy Young winners but while Cleveland's Shane Bieber is "in his prime," Zack Greinke just signed with KC as a free agent during spring training. Bieber was a rookie in 2018 and in 2019 went 15-8 and was the All Star Game's MVP. In the Covid-shortened 2020 season he went 8-1 in 12 starts (team was 10-2), leading the AL in wins, ERA (1.63) and Ks (122), while posting an 0.87 WHIP and .167 BAA. He won the AL's Cy Young award. Bieber missed a chunk of the 2021 season (7-4 with a 3.17 ERA but 134 Ks in 96.2 IP) with a strained throwing shoulder but is expected to be back at full strength.

Greinke began his career with KC back in 2004 and won the 2009 Cy Young award. He asked for and received a trade prior to the 2011 season. The haul the Royals received in the trade was part of the core that won back-to-back American League championships in 2014 and 2015 (see above). Greinke's had an impressive career since leaving KC, pitching for the Brewers, Angels, Dodgers, D'backs and Astros. He doesn't throw as hard as he did early in his career, but he still has excellent control. That said, he's a modest 14-12 with a 4.12 ERA over the last two seasons.

The Guardians had trouble scoring runs last season but will undoubtedly be a better team than the Royals in 2022. As far as Opening Day, it's Bieber over Greinke, Bieber is 4-0 with a 3.65 ERA in 10 career starts against the Royals (team is 7-3), while Greinke has faced Cleveland 26 times during his career, going 10-8 with 3.53 ERA. It's 'youth over age' in this one.

Good luck...Larry

Note: This game is an "action play." I expect Garcia will start for Houston but one never knows for sure in the postseason these days.

My 10* Game of the Month is on the Hou Astros at 8:09 ET.

Plenty of drama set for tonight's Game 6. "America's Team" is looking to capture its SECOND World Series title since the Barves moved to Atlanta in 1966. Atlanta won the 1995 World Series, the ONLY time the Braves were able to "win it all" in their INCREDIBLE run of 14 consecutive division titles from 1991 through 2005 (excludes canceled 1994 strike season). Standing in Atlanta's way is Houston, "the team everyone loves to hate!" No sense wasting time explaining, ALL know the circumstances.

Here's the set-up. The Braves won Game 1 in Houston, with the Astros rebounding to win Game 2. Atlanta then won Game 3 (my 10* Game of the Year) to take a 2-1 lead and then used a 'bullpen game" to eke out a 3-2 win in Game 4. That Game 4 win gave the Braves a 7-0 home record in the 2021 season and had a chance to clinch the series in Game 5. With Morton out, it was second straight bullpen game for the Braves but Atlanta's Adam Duvall's hit a grand slam in the bottom of the first to give the Braves a 4-0 lead. However, the Houston bats 'woke up,' after scoring a total of just two runs in Game 3 and 4 losses. A stream of timely hits turned the tide for Houston, which scored two runs in the 2nd and 3rd, then added three more in the 5th for a 7-5 lead. The Astros' 9-5 win sent the the series back to Houston.

After splitting a pair of bullpen games, the Braves will turn to Max Fried to start Game 6. Fried went 17-6 in 2019, despite a 4.02 ERA. In 2020's COVID season, he made 11 starts, going 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, as the Braves won 10 of those 11 starts. Fried made 28 starts in 2021, going 14-7 with a 3.04 ERA, as the team went 18-10. Looking a little closer, the Braves won 10 of his last 11 regular season starts and then won BOTH of his first two postseason starts (1.50 ERA). However, Fried allowed five runs on eight hits (including two homers) in an 11-2 rout by the Los Angeles Dodgers on Oct 21 in Game 5 of the NLCS and then surrendered SIX runs on seven hits in five innings of a 7-2 shellacking by the Astros in Game 2 of the World Series. How is his confidence-level entering Game 6?

Dusty Baker is well-liked and ranks 12th in career wins by a manger but the top-11 all have something Dusty doesn't. That's a World Series title. He notably managed the Giants when they blew a a 3-2 lead in the 2002 World Series against the Angels and then the following season, as the Cubs' manager, fell 'victim' to the infamous "Steve Bartman fiasco," as the Cubs let a 3-2 lead slip away against the Marlins in the NLCS. One criticism of Dusty is that he hasn't handled his pitching staffs well and he could be open to criticism again here, as instead of bringing back Urgquidy (on normal rest, off an excellent Game 2 effort), he's decided to go with Luis Garcia, on three days' rest.

Garcia made just five appearances (one start) in 2020 and in only 12.1 IP, posted a 2.92 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. He made 30 appearances (28 starts) in 2021 and was a solid part of the rotation. However, in his two postseason starts, he was 'bombed,' lasting just 3.2 innings while allowing 10 ERs on seven hits and six walks. That's an ERA of 24.55!! However, Garcia pitched 5.2 scoreless inning (one hit with a 7-1 KW ratio) in Houston's series-clinching Game 6 win over Boston and against Anderson in Game 3 of the World Series, allowed one run in 3.2 innings (Anderson and the Atlanta stadff was near-perfect).

A 'quick hook' could be on tap Tuesday for Garcia but we'll see. The Astros are the 47th team to go down 3-1 in the World Series and they're hoping to become just the SEVENTH to bounce back and win. I'm NOT thrileld about the Garcia decision but I just DON'T trust the Braves and their long-standing 'flops' in the postseason going all the way back to 1991. As much as I've liked Fried, his last two outing are REALLY troubling. It's easy to dislike the Astros but the team is relentless. EIGHT of the Houston's nine postseason wins in 2021 have come by four runs or more. Is it finally going to be Dusty's time. My bet is we will get to see if in fact it will, because this series is headed to a Game 7 on Wednesday.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MLB Game of the Year is on the Atl Braves at 8:09 ET.

The 2021 Braves did not have a winning record until their 111th game (56-55) and that's the deepest into a season any World Series team has gone before getting above .500. Atlanta won its fourth consecutive NL East title this season but its 88 wins were the fewest of the 10 playoff teams in 2021.The Astros won 101, 103 and 107 games from 2017-19 but then went just 29-31 in 2020. However, under an expanded postseason, the Astros 'snuck in' and then made it all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS, before falling to the Rays. The Astros rebounded to win the AL West with a 95-67 record in 2021 and have now made the World Series for the THIRD time in the last five seasons (note: Houston has made five straight appearances in the ALCS!). 

Houston's better regular season record gave them the home field edge, meaning the first two games were played at Minute Maid Field. The Astros have the better lineup but Atlanta had an edge in starting pitching. The Braves 'jumped all over' Houston's Game 1 starter, as Valdez allowed five ERs on eight hits over two innings. The Braves would win 6-2 but Charlie Morton was lost for the Series with a fractured leg, so any starting pitching edge for Atlanta disappeared. In Game 2, Atlanta's Max Fried gave up four runs in the second inning on four singles, an error and a wild pitch. He settled down after that, retiring 10 straight batters to keep it close, but Atlanta's bats could never quite get it going against Jose Urquidy (5 IP / 2 ERs), who  became the first pitcher in MLB history to win consecutive World Series starts without walking a batter (2019 Game 4). You can't make that up. The Game 2 victory was Houston's seventh win by five-plus runs during these playoffs, tying the 2007 Red Sox for the most such wins in postseason history.

The Series now moves to Atlanta for three games. Atlanta sends Ian Anderson to the mound, who made six starts at the end of the 2020 season but then was a star in the postseason, as the Braves won THREE of his four starts with Anderson posting a 0.96 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Anderson was 9-5 (3.58 ERA) during the 2021 season and in the current postseason, has three starts with Atlanta winning all three (2.25 ERA and 1.08 WHIP). The Astros counter with Luis Garcia, who had a solid regular season (11-8, 3.30 ERA) but has lasted only 9.1 innings in three postseason starts, allowing 10 ERs (9,64 ERA).

The Atlanta Braves haven't won a World Series home game since closing out the Cleveland Indians in Game 6 of the 1995 World Series but note that Atlanta had lost its previous EIGHT World Series games (1996, 1999), tied for the longest such streak in MLB history, before the Braves snapped that losing streak with their Game 1 victory. I believe the Braves are set to win a World Series home contest in tonight's Game 3 , as the Braves are 5-0 at home in this year's postseason. What's more, Anderson makes his eighth postseason of his career (that consists of 2020 and 2021), having seen the Braves win SIX of his first seven, while he's allowed just five ERs over 30.2 innings for a 1.47 ERA. Braves go up 2-1 with a win here and the pitching options for BOTH teams are "up in the air" for Games 4 and 5. HUGE game here and Atlanta (behind Anderson) is a HUGE play/bet!

Good luck...Larry 

My 10* World Series Came 1 Opener is on the Hou Astros at 8:09 ET.

The Atlanta Braves opened the 2021 season having won THREE consecutive NL East titles and a 2020 season in which it led the Dodgers 3-1 in the NLDS before losing the final three games of that series. The 2021 season was a struggle for Atlanta, one in which the Braves fought through injuries all season, most notably losing Acuna (24 HRs in 82 games) for the entire season right before the All Star break and starter Mike Soroka (13-4, 2.68 ERA in 2019), who hasn't pitched since early 2020 because of Achilles surgery. The Braves didn't have a winning record until Aug 6 but since then (including the playoffs), they've gone 40-21. The Braves not have a winning record until their 111th game (56-55) is the deepest into a season any World Series team has gone before getting above .500. Atlanta's 88 wins were the fewest of the 10 playoff teams in 2921.

Moving over to the Astros, I choose not to rehash the OBVIOUS sign-stealing scheme the team devised on its way to the 2017 championship. The Astros won 101, 103 and 107 games from 2017-19 but then went just 29-31 in 2020. However, under an expanded postseason, the Astros 'snuck in' and then made it all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS, before falling to the Rays. The Astros rebounded to win the AL West with a 95-67 record in 2021 and have now made the World Series for the THIRD time in the last five seasons (note: Houston has made five straight appearances in the ALCS!). I noted key injuries above regarding the Braves and it should be noted that Houston is back in the World Series despite ace Justin Verlander missing the season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. To add insult to injury, Lance McCullers Jr. is likely to miss the World Series after not pitching since leaving Game 4 of the ALDS with forearm discomfort,

The Game 1 starters are set. Charlie Morton goes for Atlanta and Framber Valdez for Houston. Charlie Morton went 14-6, 3.34 ERA in the regular season and has made three postseason starts, allowing two ERs each time, although Atlanta is 1-2. His career history is not good vs Houston, as in 14 career starts, he owns a 5.05 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. Valdez went 11-6 with a 3.14 ERA in 2021 and in three postseason starts, he owns a 4.20 ERA but Houston has won all three games. Most notably, in Game 5 of the ALCS against Boston, he allowed three hits and just one run (on a solo HR) in eight dominant innings. It remains the longest stint of any starter this postseason. FYI...Heading into the World Series, relievers have thrown 54% of postseason innings. For the Astros, it's been 57%, and for the Braves, 49%.

This is a HUGE game for Houston, as Dusty Baker is trying to make-do with an injury-riddled starting rotation. Meanwhile, The Braves are expected to follow with quality starters Fried and Anderson in Games 2 and 3. The Astros are in the World Series thanks to an offense that has scored 67 runs in 10 playoff games, with SIX of their seven wins coming by at least five runs. Forty-five of those 67 runs have come with two outs! I'm "all over" the Astros in this game.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Late-Breaker is on the LA Dodgers at 8:08 ET.

Attention: It sure looks as if Buehler will start for LA but I'm taking no chances. This is an "action" play.

The Braves fought through injuries all season, most notably losing Acuna (24 HRs in 82 games) for the entire season right before the All Star break and starter Mike Soroka (13-4, 2.68 ERA in 2019), who hasn't pitched since early 2020 because of Achilles surgery. Atlanta captured its fourth straight NL East title in 2021 and then eliminated the Brewers 3-1 in the NLDS. Waiting for the Braves in the NLCS was the LA Dodgers, who saw their eight-year run of winning the NL West end when they fell ONE game short of the Giants. The Dodgers survived a 3-1 win over the Cards in the NL wild card game (2-run walk-off HR in the 9ath) and then overcame a 2-1 deficit against the Giants to win Games 4 and 5 to advance to the NLCS.

The first two games of this series were in Atlanta and the Braves won 3-2 and 6-5, each in walk off fashion. As the series moved to Dodger Stadium, the Braves were in good shape but surely remembered that they led the Dodgers 3-1 in the 2020 NLCS (neutral-site series, played in Arlington, Texas) but saw the Dodgers rally by taking the final three games and then go on to capture their first World Series title since 1988. The Braves entered the 8th inning up 5-2 in Game 3 but lost when the Dodgers made a miraculous comeback. Heading into Game 4, the thought could have been, "Here we go again!" However, the Braves hit four HRs and jumped out to a 5-0 lead and won 9-2!

The Game 5 set up was the following. The Braves sent Max Fried to the mound. He went 17-6 in 2019, despite a 4.02 ERA if they can push the series that far. In 2020's COVID season, he made 11 starts, going 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, as the Braves won 10 of those 11 starts. Fried made 28 starts in 2021, going 14-7 with a 3.04 ERA, as the team went 18-10. Looking a little closer, the Braves won 10 of his last 11 regular season starts and had now won BOTH of his postseason starts (1.50 ERA). Doing the math is easy, Fried took the mound Thursday with the Braves having won 12 of his last 13 starts, while the Dodgers went with a bullpen game, hoping to get Max Scherzer for a Game 6 on Saturday in Atlanta.

The Dodgers 'lit up' Fried in Game 5 (4.2 IP / 8 hits / 5 ERs), in an 11-2 win. LA pounded out 11 hits, including three HRs by Chris Taylor, the hero of LA's wild card win. As for LA's "bullpen game," NINE pitchers allowed just two runs on five hits with nine Ks and not a single walk. The victory sent the series back to Atlanta where Max Scherzer was supposed to start for LA. Ah, the best laid plans.

Scherzer will not make his scheduled start in Game 6. "I would just say my arm was dead," Scherzer, a free agent at season's end, said after that start. "I could tell when I was warming up that it was still tired. Scherzer's replacement for the Dodgers is Walker Buehler, who will square off against Ian Anderson. Buehler taking the ball requires him starting on short rest for the second time in his career, after previously doing so in Game 4 of the NLDS against the San Francisco Giants. Starting anyone outside of Buehler would have morphed Game 6 into a bullpen game for Los Angeles, made more difficult because the Dodgers also staged a bullpen game in Thursday's Game 5.

Buehler's 2.47 ERA in the regular season was the third-best ERA in all of baseball (also owned a 0.97 WHIP and .199 BAA during the regular season). Buehler lasted 6.1 innings in Game 1 and allowed three ERs in a 4-0 loss. The Dodgers then brought Buehler back on short rest in Game 4 (down 2-1), for the first time in his career. He delivered 4.1 innings and allowed just one run. The Dodgers would win 7-2 and then beat the Giants 2-1 in Game 5. Buehler started Game 3 in LA and lasted just 3.2 innings, allowing four runs (just two earned).

Ian Anderson starred for Atlanta in last year's playoffs and after a 9-5 season in 2021 (3.58 ERA and 1.24 WHIP) in 24 starts (team was just 13-11), the Braves have won both of his postseason starts. However, he lasted a total of just eight innings (two ERs allowed for a 2.25 ERA). Is Anderson up to the task on the 'BIG stage?' Just the facts, as Joe Friday used to say (I'm really dating myself now). For a FIFTH time in two seasons, the Atlanta Braves will take the field knowing that one victory will launch them into their first World Series in over two decades. Braves fans know all too well that they are 0-4 in their first four tries.

As for the Dodgers, they will take the field having won SEVEN consecutive playoff elimination games (four coming against Atlanta), going back to last year's NLCS. Since the last weekend of the regular season, they have lost Clayton Kershaw, Max Muncy and Justin Turner to injury, yet they keep surviving. As I pointed out in taking LA in Game 5, LA pitchers owned MLB's lowest ERA (3.01) and WHIP (1.10) during the regular season and LA won 106 games to Atlanta's 88. LA led all of MLB in run differential (plus-269 runs), while the Braves owned a differential of plus-134. The Dodgers ARE the better team. The Braves are at home but can they rise to the challenge? Sure they CAN but WILL they? My bet is on the Dodgers and will re-evaluate Sunday for Game 7. See you then.

Once again a reminder. This is an "action" play.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the Bos Red Sox at 8:08 ET.

Before I start, this is an "action" play on the Boston Red Sox, so no need to use listed pitchers!

Houston took Game 1 of this series 5-4 but then Houston pitching got PULVERIZED in Games 2 and 3, losing 9-5 and 12-3. Houston fell behind 8-0 by the second inning in Game 2 and then 9-0 by the third inning of Game 3, as the Red Sox became the first team ever with THREE grand slams in the same postseason series. J.D. Martinez and Rafael Devers each hit one in the Red Sox's Game 2 win and then Kyle Schwarber's second-inning grand slam Monday punctuated Boston's six-run second inning. However, Houston pitchers have 'silenced' the Boston bats in winning Games 4 and 5, holding Boston to THREE runs on eight hits (Red sox went 0-13 with RISP over the two games). Meanwhile, the Astros have totaled 18 runs on 23 hits over the last two games.

The Game 6 starters are expected to be Nathan Eovaldi (11-9, 3.75 ERA in the regular season) and Luis Garcia (11-8, 3.30 ERA). Eovaldi began the current season just 50-56 in his career (4.27 ERA) and his 2021 season ranks as the second-best since joining the majors back in 2011 (he somehow went 14-3 with the NYY in 2015 despite a 4.27 ERA). Eovaldi has made three postseason starts, lasting 5.1, 5 and 5.1 innings, while allowing six ERs (3.45 ERA). He entered Game 4 in the 9th inning and the bottom fell out in that disastrous inning on Tuesday. Eovaldi didn't get the benefit of a potential third-strike call and surrendered four runs on two hits in two-thirds of an inning (part of Houston's SEVEN-run 9th!).

Garcia made just five appearances (one start) in 2020 and in only 12.1 IP, posted a 2.92 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. He made 30 appearances (28 starts) in 2021 and was a solid part of the rotation. However, in two postseason starts, he's been 'bombed,' lasting just 3.2 innings while allowing 10 ERs on seven hits and six walks. That's an ERA of 24.55!! Garcia will take the mound on Friday after exiting his previous start with discomfort in his right knee. Prior to his departure in the second inning, he surrendered a grand slam in the first. "I mean, all I can do is go on his word, go on the trainer's word, and go on (Astros pitching coach Brent Strom's) word," manager Dusty Baker said about Garcia's readiness.. "They said that he didn't feel anything. Now, by that I mean -- like, I try to tell our guys to come clean with me 100 percent. Most athletes, they're going to say I'm doing good even when they're not, but you can usually sense, see a wince on one of their faces after a pitch or whatever.

One more reminder before I go. This is an "action" play on the Boston Red Sox. Who knows if Garcia could be ruled out right before the first pitch? See you for Game 7 on Saturday. 

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NLCS Showdown is on the the LA Dodgers at 8:08 ET.

The Braves fought through injuries all season, most notably losing Acuna (24 HRs in 82 games) for the entire season right before the All Star break and starter Mike Soroka (13-4, 2.68 ERA in 2019), who hasn't pitched since early 2020 because of Achilles surgery. Atlanta captured its fourth straight NL East title in 2021 and then eliminated the Brewers 3-1 in the NLDS. Waiting for the Braves in the NLCS was the LA Dodgers, who saw their eight-year run of winning the NL West end when they fell ONE game short of the Giants. The Dodgers survived a 3-1 win over the Cards in the NL wild card game (2-run walk-off HR in the 9ath) and then overcame a 2-1 deficit against the Giants to win Games 4 and 5 to advance to the NLCS.

The first two games of this series were in Atlanta and the Braves won 3-2 and 6-5, each in walk off fashion. As the series moved to Dodger Stadium, the Braves were in good shape but surely remembered that they led the Dodgers 3-1 in the 2020 NLCS (neutral-site series, played in Arlington, Texas) but saw the Dodgers rally by taking the final three games and then go on to capture their first World Series title since 1988. The Braves entered the 8th inning up 5-2 in Game 3 but lost when the Dodgers made a miraculous comeback. Heading into Game 4, the thought could have been, "Here we go again!" However, the Braves hit four HRs and jumped out to a 5-0 lead and won 9-2!

Here's the Game 5 set up. The Braves will play the local angle, sending Los Angeles-area native Max Fried to the mound. Fried, who gave up two runs over six innings in a no-decision during Game 1, has a 3.00 ERA against the Dodgers in seven playoff appearances against them over three seasons. As for the Dodgers, they will try to keep their season alive with a bullpen game, hoping to get Max Scherzer for a Game 6 on Saturday in Atlanta.

Fried went 17-6 in 2019, despite a 4.02 ERA if they can push the series that far. In 2020's COVID season, he made 11 starts, going 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, as the Braves won 10 of those 11 starts. Fried made 28 starts in 2021, going 14-7 with a 3.04 ERA, as the team went 18-10. Looking a little closer, the Braves won 10 of his last 11 regular season starts and have now won BOTH of his postseason starts (1.50 ERA). Doing the math is easy, Fried takes the mound Thursday with the Braves having won 12 of his last 13 starts.

So why take the Dodgers in a "bullpen" game? LA pitchers owned MLB's lowest ERA (3.01) and WHIP (1.10) during the regular season and LA won 106 games to Atlanta's 88. LA led all of MLB in run differential (plus-269 runs), while the Braves owned a differential of plus-134. The Dodgers ARE the better team. The Braves HAVE been the better team in this series but beware. Prior to last night's loss, the Dodgers had won 18 of 19 at home going back to the regular season! Los Angeles enters this contest having won SIX consecutive postseason elimination games dating to last year. Can you say SEVEN in a row? That's my bet.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Hou Astros at 8:08 ET.

The Astros were able to win Game 1 of the ALCS 5-4 but Houston pitching has been PULVERIZED the last two games, losing 9-5 and 12-3. Houston fell behind 8-0 by the second inning in Game 2 and then 9-0 by the third inning of Game 3, as the Red Sox became the first team ever with THREE grand slams in the same postseason series. J.D. Martinez and Rafael Devers each hit one in the Red Sox's Game 2 win and then Kyle Schwarber's second-inning grand slam Monday punctuated Boston's six-run second inning. Boston has hit 20 HRs this postseason, with Kike Hernandez accounted for FIVE of them en route to posting a slugging percentage of 1.028.

Truth be told, this is starting to feel like a "MUST-WIN" game for the Astros. Houston manager Dusty Baker told reporters on Sunday that he was considering four different pitchers to start Game 4 after a wrath of injuries left Houston's mound corps depleted. He chose Urquidy and that didn't go too well. Now in Game 4, it's veteran Zach Greinke. Greinke won a Cy Young while at KC back in 2011 plus became an elite pitcher with stops in Milwaukee, the Angels, the Dodgers ,the D'backs and now in Houston. The veteran right-hander has pitched only once this postseason, allowing two hits during a scoreless inning of relief in the Astros' 12-6 loss to the Chicago White Sox in Game 3 of the AL Division Series. The 37-year-old was shipped to the bullpen following a mediocre regular season in which he went 11-6 with a 4.16 ERA over 30 games (29 starts).

Nick Pivetta goes for Boston. He entered the season with a 21-30 career record (94 appearances / 73 starts) with a 5.40 ERA. I guess one can say this was his best season, as he was 9-8 with a 4.53 ERA in 31 appearances (30 starts) in the regular season. Pivetta has pitched out of the bullpen twice during the Red Sox's postseason run. He tossed four scoreless innings and registered seven strikeouts to pick up the win in Boston's 6-4, 13-inning victory against the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 3 of the ALDS. However, this marks his first career playoff start.

Will the Boston bats ever 'cool off?' One would think Greinke will be out to prove something here and I'm predicting the veteran will do just that. Note that his 3.45 road ERA was about 1 1/2-runs lower than his home ERA (4.87) and that his mound opponent is entering 'uncharted waters' with this playoff start. I'll add that Pivetta's home ERA in 2021 was 5.40, 1.65 runs higher than his away ERA of 3.75. Houston ties things up here with a "W" and it's the best two-of-three the rest of the way!

Good luck...Larry

My 7* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Dodgers at 5:08 ET.

The Braves fought through injuries all season, most notably losing Acuna (24 HRs in 82 games) for the entire season right before the All Star break and starter Mike Soroka (13-4, 2.68 ERA in 2019), who hasn't pitched since early 2020 because of Achilles surgery. Atlanta captured its fourth straight NL East title in 2021 and then eliminated the Brewers 3-1 in the NLDS. Waiting for the Braves in the NLCS was the LA Dodgers, who saw their eight-year run of winning the NL West end when they fell ONE game short of the Giants. The Dodgers survived a 3-1 win over the Cards in the NL wild card game (2-run walk-off HR in the 9ath) and then overcame a 2-1 deficit against the Giants to win Games 4 and 5 to advance to the NLCS.

The first two games of this series have been in Atlanta and the Braves have won 3-2 and 6-5, each in walk off fashion. As the series moves to Dodger Stadium, are the Braves in control of the National League Championship Series? Don't be too sure. One only has to look back to the 2020 NLCS in which the Braves led the Dodgers 3-1 (neutral-site series, played in Arlington, Texas) but saw the Dodgers rally by taking the final three games and then go on to capture their first World Series title since 1988. Then again, Atlanta got Austin Riley's game-ending RBI single in the ninth inning of Game 1 on Saturday and then topped that effort in Game 2 on Sunday: They rallied for two runs in the eighth inning off LA's 20-game-winner Julio Urias and then won it in the ninth on a RBI single off LA closer Kenley Jansen.

The starting pitching matchup for Game 3 is Charlie Morton (14-6, 3.34 ERA in the regular season) and Walker Buehler (16-4, 2.47 ERA). Morton has made four regular-season starts against the Dodgers, going 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in 22 innings. That includes him going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA vs LA in 2021. He allowed four runs (two earned) in five innings during a 5-2 victory in June and then on Aug 31 game at Dodger Stadium, left with a 2-1 lead after six innings, only to have the home team get to the Braves' bullpen to win 3-2. Morton is 7-4 with a 3.44 ERA in 15 postseason appearances (14 starts).

Buehler's 2.47 ERA was the third-best ERA in all of baseball (also owned a 0.97 WHIP and .199 BAA during the regular season). Buehler lasted 6.1 innings in Game 1 and allowed three ERs in a 4-0 loss. The Dodgers then brought Buehler back on short rest in Game 4 (down 2-1), for the first time in his career. He delivered 4.1 innings and allowed just one run. The Dodgers would win 7-2 and then beat the Giants 2-1 in Game 5. Buehler is 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA in three lifetime starts in the regular season against the Braves and has faced them three times in the playoffs. In last year's NLCS, he gave up just one run over two starts (11 innings / 0.82 ERA), with the Braves beating the Dodgers' bullpen 5-1 in Game 1 and Buehler pitching six shutout innings in a 3-1 victory in Game 3.

LA pitchers owned MLB's lowest ERA (3.01) and WHIP (1.10) during the regular season and LA won 106 games to Atlanta's 88. LA led all of MLB in run differential (plus-269 runs), while the Braves owned a differential of plus-134. The Dodgers ARE the better team. I haven't used this big of a favorite all season (average lay price on the year is about -112) but this IS the Dodgers' game to win!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* ALCS Opener is on the Hou Astros at 8:07 ET.

It's Boston vs Houston in the ALCS. Ironically, Boston manager Alex Cora serves as "the tie that binds" the Red Sox and Astros. He was the Astros' bench coach for their World Series title-winning team in 2017 and the Red Sox's manager during their championship-winning season the following year. His involvement in the cheating scandal saw him suspended for the 2020 season. Houston manager AJ Hinch was fired at Houston and veteran Dusty Baker was brought in. Cora has won all EIGHT postseason series in which he's been involved, 3-0 as Houston's bench coach in 2017 and now 5-0 with Boston. Baker has had a long and storied managerial career (he ranks 12th in all-time wins) but he's the ONLY manager in that top-12, who has NEVER won a World Series title.

That said, I'm not about to argue that this series will be decided by the managers. The Game 1 starters are Chris Sale and Framber Valdez. Sale didn't take the mound until August 14th this season and in nine starts went 5-1 with a 3.16 ERA (team was 7-2). This marks Valdez's fourth MLB season and after going 13-11 with a 4.19 ERA over 45 appearances (23 starts ) in his first three, he had a breakout season in 2021. He made 22 appearances (all starts) and went 11-6 with 3.14 ERA (lowest among Houston starters). 

Sale is considered an elite pitcher but I just don't get it. He typically 'runs out of steam' when playing a full season and here in 2021, lasted just 2.1 innings at Washington (pulled when down 2-0) when the Red Sox needed a win in Game 162. Lucky for him, Boston rallied from a 5-1 deficit for a 7-5 win. Sale was then handed the ball in Game 2 of the ALDS with Boston coming off a 5-0 loss in Game 2. What did "Mr Elite" do? He allowed four hits and one walk and gave up five runs in the 1st inning, AFTER Boston had given him a 2-0 in the trop of the first. Cora had seen enough and Sale was taken out but again, the Red Sox would rally for a 14-6 victory. 

Valdez was very good in the 2020 postseason for Houston, which after a 29-31 regular season record, somehow got them into the expanded playoff field. The left-handed Valdez made four appearances (three starts), going 3-1 with a 1.88 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in the 2020 playoffs.  Valdez started Game 2 of Houston's ALDS against the White Sox and allowed four runs on seven hits in 4.1 innings of a no-decision (note: Houston won 9-4).

I just noted Valdez's postseason effort last year and Sale's postseason numbers are 'UGLY!' In eight appearances (five starts), he's allowed 21 ERs on 28 hits in 26 innings (7.27 ERA). Let me go back to his abbreviated 2021 season and point out that his 3.16 was slightly higher than his career mark of 3.03 and his 1.34 WHIP was the highest of any season in his career (30 points higher than his lifetime WHIP of 1.04). How about his BAA of .269 in 2021 being FIFTY points higher than his lifetime mark of .219! 

One last thing. Valdez owns a 1.59 ERA in four career appearances (two starts) against the Red Sox, including going 2-0 in two starts vs Boston this season, allowing just two ERs over 14.1 innings (1.26 ERA) with 18 Ks! Houston goes up 1-0!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Rout-Part 4 is on the SF Giants at 9:07 ET.

The San Francisco Giants set a franchise record with 107 wins in 2021, while the Dodgers tied their franchise-high with 106 wins. San Fran's one-game edge in the NL West not only snapped LA's eight-year run as division champs but also allowed the Giants to have the home field advantage in this NLCS matchup. By the way, the Dodgers and Giants are going head-to-head in the postseason for the first time in the 131-year history of their New York-born rivalry. This matchup only came about when the Dodgers' Chris Taylor hit a walk-off two-run HR last Wednesday in the bottom of the 9th to allow LA to edge the red-hot Cardinals, 3-1.

I guess it should come as no surprise that this series has 'gone the distance' and that Thursday baseball fans will be treated to a Game 5 "winner-take-all" contest with the victorious team moving on to the NLCS where the Atlanta Braves are waiting. Tonight's starting pitchers are NOT household names but they are two of MLB 2021's most OUTSTANDING starters. The Dodgers' Julio Urias was MLB's only 20-game winner in 2021, finishing the season with a 20-8 record and a 2.96 ERA. He also ended with an elite 1.02 WHIP plus a 195/38 KW ratio over 185.2 innings of work. The Giants Logan Webb finished the regular season at 11-3 with a 3.03 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP and a 158-35 KW ratio. Webb's record is good but not OUTSTANDING. To see that, one has to look 'deeper.'

Webb's last loss came way back on May 5, as over his last 21 starts (including a 4-0 win in Game 1 of this series), he's 11-0 with the Giants going 19-2. The Giants went 21-5 in Webb's regular season starts in 2021, giving him MLB's second-best moneyline mark (+$1,283) among starters. Now that's OUTSTANDING! However, getting back to Urias, he ain't far behind. The left-hander's last loss came back on June 21. He entered Game 2 of this series having gone 8-0 with a 1.77 ERA in his last 11 starts, with the Dodgers winning all 11. After LA lost Game 1, a Game 2 victory was a must and Urias delivered a five-inning, three-hit, one-run effort. LA led 2-1 when he exited and the Dodgers would score four runs in the 6th to pull away for a 9-2 win, Including that contest, Urias is 12-0 over his last 18 starts with LA going 16-2. Take that Mr Webb! Let me also note that pitching away from home was not a concern all season for Urias, as he went 13-2 with a 2.71 ERA in 18 road starts (Dodgers were 15-3). Throw in Game 2 and make it 14-2 with LA going 16-3.

Which starting pitcher and which team will 'BLINK' in Game 5. The Dodgers do own all the recent playoff experience, playing in their NINTH straight postseason and hold the title of defending champs. Yes, the Giants won ONE more game than the Dodgers during the regular season but LA owned MLB's best run-differential at plus-269 (a GREAT indicator of a team's strength), 59 runs better than the Giants mark of plus-210. However, the Giants went 54-27 at home, MLB's second-best home record. Naturally, the Dodgers own MLB's best home record at 58-23 but it's the Giants who are at home for this Game 5 decider! Zeroing in on the Urias/Webb matchup, the two have squared off THREE times in 2021 with the Giants winning all THREE, as Webb allowed four ERs over 16 innings for a 2.25 ERA. I noted Urias' excellent road record but Webb made 13 home appearances (12 starts), going 6-0 with a 1.96 ERA, allowing just 55 hits in 73.1 innings (.213 BAA) with 86 Ks. He then threw 7.2 scoreless innings at home vs the Dodgers in Game 1 of this series.

Bottom line is, I don't believe San Francisco's 'magical' season is ready to end. With Willie Mays watching (note: Joe Posnanski's new book, The Baseball 100, just rated "the Say Hey Kid" as MLB's No. 1 player of all time), this game ends with the Giants on top. Paraphrasing Russ Hodges' classic call after "The Shot Heard 'Round the World,"..."The Giants win the pennant, the Giants win the pennant and they're going crazy!" OK, it's not the pennant but rather the NLDS but you get the point!

Good luck...Larry

 My 10* Rivalry Rout-Part 3 is on the LA Dodgers at 9:07 ET.

Starting in Brooklyn's Ebbets Field & Upper Manhattan's Polo Grounds before moving to "The City of Angels" & the "City by the Bay," the Dodgers/Giants rivalry ranks with the best in ANY sport. The San Francisco Giants set a franchise record with 107 wins in 2021, while the Dodgers tied their franchise-high with 106 wins. San Fran's one-game edge in the NL West not only snapped LA's eight-year run as division champs but also allowed the Giants to have the home field advantage in this NLCS matchup. By the way, the Dodgers and Giants go head-to-head in the postseason for the first time in the 131-year history of their New York-born rivalry. This matchup only came about when the Dodgers' Chris Taylor hit a walk-off two-run HR Wednesday in the bottom of the 9th to allow LA to edge the red-hot Cardinals, 3-1.

The Giants drew 'first blood' with a 1-0 win in Game 1 (I had the Giants) but the Dodgers rebounded with a 9-2 win in Game 2. (I had the Dodgers). I sat out Game 3, as the Giants won a second game in the series by a 1-0 score and now the defending champs need to win Game 4 (at home) and Game 5 in San Francisco, to keep their chances of repeating alive!

The Giants will send Anthony DeSclafani to the mound on Tuesday, while Tony Gonsolin (4-1, 3.23 ERA) was listed as the Dodgers' Game 4 starter but LA manager Dave Roberts said all options would be considered for this win-or-go-home contest. In the late afternoon, he switched to Walker Buehler, coming back on short rest. DeSclafani had a "career year" in 2021 for the Giants. He began the season (his 7th in MLB) with a 37-39 record and 4.29 ERA) but won 13 games (just seven losses) with a 3.17 ERA (a full run lower than his career ERA) and a 1.09 WHIP. The Giants went 21-10 in his starts, giving him a +$923 moneyline mark (7th-best). 

LA pitchers owned MLB's lowest ERA (3.01) and WHIP (1.10) during the regular season plus LA's bullpen has a 1.46 ERA in four playoff games! Buehler lasted 6.1 innings in Game 1 and allowed three ERs entered that contest with a 7-1 (2.49 ERA) career record over the Dodgers in 11 starts (LA is 8-3). Buehler was 16-4 with a 2.47 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and .199 BAA during the regular season. DeSclafani was 0-3 with a 7.33 ERA in six starts against the Dodgers in 2021. Note, SF did win all three of his no-decisions but his career record of 1-8 with a 5.84 ERA in 12 starts against LA hardly inspires confidence. Nor does the fact that this marks DeSclafani's first-ever postseason start. We are headed back to San Francisco for Game 5 on Thursday.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Game 3 Series Tie-Breaker is on the Mil Brewers at 1:07 ET.

The Atlanta Braves fought through key injuries to offensive stars and starting pitchers to win their FOURTH consecutive NL East crown with a record of 88-73 (6 1/2-games clear of the Phillies). The Braves were in third place, 2 1/2 games under .500 on Aug 1 but Atlanta clinched the NL East with a sweep of second-place Philadelphia in the next-to-last series. Meanwhile, the Brewers clinched their FOURTH consecutive playoff berth on Sep 18, but went 4-10 the rest of the way. Three of those victories were in a Central-clinching home sweep of the Mets. 95-67 Milwaukee dropped FIVE of six in a season-ending road trip against the Cardinals and Dodgers to finish, weighing rest against momentum.

I had Milwaukee in its Game 1 win (2-1) but then passed in the series' Game 2 (Braves won 3-0). However, I'm back in action in Game 3. Great pitching and very little offense has been the 'story' so far and will likely be again here in Game 3, as Milwaukee sends Freddy Peralta (10-5, 2.81 ERA) to the mound and Atlanta counters with Ian Anderson (9-5, 3.58 ERA). 

Peralta got overlooked this season by Milwaukee starters Burnes (2.43 ERA) and Woodruff (2.56) but he not only checks in with a 2.81 ERA in his 27 starts (team was 18-9), he also owns a 0.97 WHIP and .165 BAA. Anderson made a HUGE 'splash' at the end of last season, especially in the postseason when he was 2-0 in four starts (Braves were 3-1), while posting a 1.95 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and .172 BAA. His 2021 record is above and I'll add that the Braves were only 16-15 in his 31 starts.

However, Anderson is 4-0 in six starts (team is 4-2) since returning from a seven-week absence due to right shoulder inflammation. He enters having allowed two runs or fewer in three of his past four starts. In contrast, Peralta posted a 1-2 record with a 4.70 ERA in his five September starts (Brewers went 2-3). That said, I'm backing the Brewers here, as the Brewers boasted a 50-31 mark to set a franchise record for road victories, while the Braves finished just 42-38 at home. The Brewers go up 2-1 in the Series Game 3 Tie-Breaker.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the Chi White Sox at 8:07 ET.

The Chicago White Sox broke an 11-year playoff drought in 2020 (35-25) and this season won the AL Central with a 93-69 record, giving the team its first division title since 2008. Chicago's opponent in this ALDS is the Houston Astros, the team everyone now loves to hate. Houston won 101, 103 and 107 games from 2017-19 but a sign-stealing scandal changed the way the team's accomplishments were viewed. The Astros snuck into the 2020 postseason at 29-31 but then made it all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS, before losing to the Rays. The Astros are back in their FIFTH straight postseason, after going 95-67.

This best of five series opened Thursday, with Houston winning handily, 6-1, a game I passed. However, I didn't miss out on Houston's 9-4 Game 2 win, which puts the team ONE win away from an ALDS sweep and a FIFTH straight berth in the ALCS. Houston will visit the Chicago White Sox on Sunday night for Game 3 of the teams' ALDS with a 2-0 lead, clicking on the mound and at the plate. Houston pitchers have allowed just five runs and all 18 hits given up have been SINGLES. The Astros have plated 15 runs, while batting .308, including .421 (8 of 19) with RISP. The two playoff wins makes Houston 6-0 in six games at Minute Maid Park in 2021, as the Astros have outscored the White Sox 42-13!

However, as Chicago shortstop Tim Anderson said, "Ain't nothing like being at home!" The White Sox expect to be buoyed by a fan base awaiting the franchise's first home playoff game since 2008 but they also know they need more than singles to turn the series around. Luis Garcia (11-8, 3.30 ERA) takes the mound for Houston and Dylan Cease (13-7, 3.91 ERA) for Chicago. Looking a little closer at Garcia's numbers we find that in 15 home appearances (13 starts), he's got a 2.39 ERA, folding opponents to a .210 BAA. However in 15 road appearances (all starts), his ERA is 4.24 and opponents are batting .252.

That should give Chicago batters some hope and let me note that the White Sox owned the AL's best home record (53-8) during 2021's regular season. Cease was just 9-11 over 26 starts in 2019 and 2020, so his 13-7 mark in 2021 surely qualifies as a 'breakout' year. Cease's season has 'flown under the radar' when one considers that over his last 15 starts, he's held opponents to three ERs or less 14 times. The exception being him allowing seven ERs at Boston on Sep 11. However, over his final three starts after than one, he allowed just one ER over 14.1 innings (0.63 ERA) with 24 strikeouts against ONE walk.

This series will move to a Game 4 on Monday.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Rout-Part 2 is on the LA Dodgers at 9:07 ET.

I had the Giants as my top-rated 10* in the team's 4-0 win last night. What a season it's been for 24-year-old Logan Webb! Congrats to everyone that joined in, as the Giants were part of my 3-0 Friday sweep in MLB. As I noted yesterday, the Giants had ONE more win in the regular season than the Dodgers but it was enough for the Giants to win the division and earn the home field edge in this best-of-five series. I also noted that after LA opened 4-0 vs San Francisco in the season series, the Giants won 10 of the last 15 meetings. Now, make that 11 of 16! It's been a 'magical' season for the Giants but remember, the Dodgers are the defending champs and the specter of falling into an 0-2 'hole' in this series is to say the least, a daunting one. 

San Francisco drew first blood but I think the defending champs will bounce back here on Saturday night in Game 2. Moments after complaining that his hitters failed to make adjustments in Game 1 of the National League Division Series, Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts took matters into his own hands Friday night and made one himself. The Dodgers will have a new center fielder and first baseman in the lineup on Saturday night. Center fielder Cody Bellinger will be moved to first base for Game 2, with Chris Taylor taking over in center (his two-run walk-off HR got the Dodgers past StL 3-1 in the wild card game).

The starting pitchers will be Julio Urias (20-3, 2.96 ERA) for LA and Kevin Gausman (14-6, 2.81 ERA) for SF. Gausman is coming off a career regular-season campaign BUT he did go winless in his last four regular-season starts, posting a 4.09 ERA. In fact, he had a 4.64 ERA in six September starts, before limiting the Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres to a total of two runs in 13 innings with 16 strikeouts in his last two outings. Gausman went 1-1 with a 3.21 ERA in three starts against the Dodgers this season (Giants did go 2-1 ), giving him a 1-3 record with a 3.99 ERA against Los Angeles in eight career meetings, including seven starts.

As for Urias, he was MLB's only 20-game winner in 2021, finishing the season with an elite 1.02 WHIP and a 195/38 KW ratio over 185.2 innings of work The left-hander enters this contest having gone 8-0 with a 1.77 ERA in his last 11 starts, with the Dodgers winning all 11. Pitching away from home was not a concern all season, as he went 13-2 with a 2.71 ERA in 18 road starts (Dodgers were 15-3). The Giants won ONE more game than the Dodgers during the regular season but LA owned MLB's best run-differential at plus-269 (a GREAT indicator of a team's strength), 59 runs better than the Giants mark of plus-210. 

The Dodgers are averaging 5.17 RPG on the road and after last night's shutout loss, I'm definitely expecting a big response in Game 2. The play is on LA.

Good luck...Larry 

My 10* Rivalry Rout is on the SF Giants at 9:37 ET.

The San Francisco Giants set a franchise record with 107 wins in 2021, while the Dodgers tied their franchise-high with 106 wins. San Fran's one-game edge in the NL West not only snapped LA's eight-year run as division champs but also allowed the Giants to have the home field advantage in this NLCS matchup. By the way, the Dodgers and Giants will go head-to-head in the postseason for the first time in the 131-year history of their New York-born rivalry. This matchup only came about when the Dodgers' Chris Taylor hit a walk-off two-run HR Wednesday in the bottom of the 9th to allow LA to edge the red-hot Cardinals, 3-1.

The starters for Game 1 are quite a duo. Walker Buehler of the Dodgers (16-4, 2.47 ERA) sports the third-best ERA in all of baseball and owns a 7-1 (2.49 ERA) career record over the Dodgers in 11 starts (LA is 8-3). Then there is Logan Webb (11-3, 3.03 ERA) of the Giants. Webb's last loss came way back on May 5, as over his last 20 starts, he's 10-0 with the Giants going 18-2. The Giants went 21-5 in Webb's starts this season, giving him MLB's second-best moneyline mark (+$1,283) among starters.

Walker is an elite pitcher but do you really want to go against Webb? Could the Dodgers have a small mental letdown here? After all, they won 18 of their final 21 games in 2021 games (seven in a row to close the regular season) but still fell ONE game shy of catching the Giants. That forced this 106-win team into a "winner-take-all" one-game wild card contest vs the Cards, a game that wasn't decided until the bottom of the 9th (see above).

Let me add that after the Dodgers beat the Giants in their first four meetings this season, they dropped 10 of the last 15. As for Buehler, he conceded 14 ERs over his final three road starts (lasting just 12.2 innings for a 9.95 ERA), including getting shelled for six runs in his last start at Oracle Park on Sep 5 (lasted three innings). Getting back to Webb, he's faced the Dodgers three times in 2021 (matched up against 20-game winner Urias in each one) with the Giants winning all THREE, as Webb allowed four ERs over 16 innings for a 2.25 ERA.

Giants take Game 1.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mil Brewers at 4:37 ET.

The Atlanta Braves fought through key injuries to offensive stars and starting pitchers to win their FOURTH consecutive NL East crown with a record of 88-73 (6 1/2-games clear of the Phillies). The Braves were in third place, 2 1/2 games under .500 on Aug 1 but Atlanta clinched the NL East with a sweep of second-place Philadelphia in the next-to-last series. Meanwhile, the Brewers clinched their FOURTH consecutive playoff berth on Sep 18, but went 4-10 the rest of the way. Three of those victories were in a Central-clinching home sweep of the Mets. 95-67 Milwaukee dropped FIVE of six in a season-ending road trip against the Cardinals and Dodgers to finish, weighing rest against momentum.

Charlie Morton (14-6, 3.34 ERA) gets the start for Atlanta, while Corbin Burnes (11-5, 2.43 ERA) takes the hill for Milwaukee. Morton is 7-3 in 13 postseason appearances (12 starts), while Burnes will be making his first playoff start (he did make six relief appearances in 2018). As much experience as Charlie Morton brings to the table for the Braves here in Game 1, I still believe Corbin Burnes and the Brewers could in fact be much larger favorites in this spot.

The bottom line is that Burnes finished with the lowest ERA in the majors. He pitched just two innings against the Dodgers on Saturday, allowing three runs but prior to that outing, the first-time All-Star was 9-0 with a 2.28 ERA over his previous 19 starts with the Braves going 17-2. How does one 'step in front of that train?'.

Does it matter that Atlanta is just 3-8 in its last 11 NLDS road games, or that Milwaukee is 5-0 in its last five NLDS home games? That stat surely dos steer me away from taking Milwaukee! 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* "1st Pitch" is on the Hou Astros at 2:07 ET.

The Chicago White Sox broke an 11-year playoff drought in 2020 (35-25) and this season won the AL Central with a 93-69 record, giving the team its first division title since 2008. Chicago's opponent in this ALDS is the Houston Astros, the team everyone now loves to hate. Houston won 101, 103 and 107 games from 2017-19 but a sign-stealing scandal changed the way the team's accomplishments were viewed. The Astros snuck into the 2020 postseason at 29-31 but then made it all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS, before losing to the Rays. The Astros are back in their FIFTH straight postseason, after going 95-67.

This best of five series opened Thursday, with Houston winning handily, 6-1. Lance McCullers Jr. was the star of Houston's 6-1 triumph, throwing 6.2 innings of shutout ball. Chicago's Lynn was ineffective, allowing five ERs while lasting just 3.2 innings. Houston got the job done with its second-best pitcher on the hill on Thursday (at least according to its final regular season ERA) and now it hands the ball to the pitcher with the team's lowest ERA among starters. Framber Valdez was 11-6, with a 3.14 ERA (McCullers' ERA was 3.16) and looks to pick up where he left off in the 2020 postseason. The 27-year-old is 3-1 with a 1.88 ERA in four postseason appearances, including three starts.

Chicago counters with Luca Giolito, who comes off a 2021 season in which he went 11-9, 3.53 ERA. Giolito is 2-3 with a 3.71 ERA in five lifetime starts against Houston and in his only previous postseason start, shut down the A's on two hits over seven innings in a 4-1 win in Game 1 of last year's ALDS. However, it's NOT good news for Chicago fans (bettors) that Giolito owns a 4.31 ERA in day games (was 3.02 in night games) or that Chicago is just 2-10 its last 12 at this field.

Expect the Astros to keep their foot on the gas here and deliver back-to-back victories to open up this series.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Yankees at 1:05 ET.

The Tampa Bay Rays could view this weekend series as a rehearsal for what they hope is a deep postseason run but the Rays and Yankees have developed a real dislike for each other the last decade and 'making life tough' on New York as it looks to clinch the No. 1 wild card spot, sure is playing on the minds of all associated with the franchise. That was the case last night, as the Rays opened the series by holding on for a 4-3 victory. The 99-61 Rays are 6-2 in the Bronx this season and 11-3 there since the start of last season. The loss dropped the Yankees to 91-69 but they lead the AL wild-card race, ONE game ahead of the 90-70 Boston Red Sox and two in front of the Toronto Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners, who are both 89-71.

Full disclosure, I played and lost on the New York Yankees in the opener of this season-ending series with the Tampa Bay Rays last night but while that one came up short, I absolutely expect the home side to bounce back on Saturday. The Yankees have been streaky all year, as they are 8-2 in their last 10 games (counting last night's loss) and that run comes on the heels of them losing 15 of 22. They nearly pulled off a comeback against Tampa Bay's Andrew Kittredge in the ninth inning, but Gary Sanchez and Rougned Odor struck out with two on after Joey Gallo and Brett Gardner hit RBI singles. "We want to clinch, that'd be nice, but we have two more games to do that," Gallo said. "We control our own destiny, but that's up to us." New York's Giancarlo Stanton had two hits, including an RBI single, and he has driven in 14 runs in his past seven games.

The starters for Saturday are rookie Shane Baz (2-0, 1.69 ERA) for Tampa Bay and Jordan Montgomery (6-6, 3.49 ERA) for New York. The Pirates selected Baz with the 12th overall pick of  the 2017 Major League Baseball draft. He was acquired by Tampa Bay from the Pittsburgh Pirates (2018) in the trade that also landed Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows in exchange for Chris Archer (pretty big haul for the Rays, right?). He was promoted to the major leagues until September 20, 2021, to make his debut that same night at Tropicana Field. He started against the Toronto Blue Jays and threw five innings in which he gave up two earned runs on two hits (both were home runs) while striking out five. He followed with 5.2 scoreless innings against Miami in a 3-2 win.

Montgomery is 1-0 with a tiny 1.65 ERA over his past three starts and has now given up one earned run or less in 15 of his 29 starts (Yanks are 17-12 in those starts). That includes each of his last three starts vs Tampa Bay, when he's allowed just two ERs over 17.1 innings for a 1.04 ERA (Yanks have won ALL three). Baz has been great in his first two MLB starts (14-1 KW ratio / 0.56 WHIP and .135 BAA) but this is his first road start and it comes in 'The House that Ruth Built." Tough assignment for the young pitcher. Yanks win (note: they are 8-4 in Montgomery's home starts) and clinch a wildcard spot.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cle Indians at 7:00 ET.

Neither the 78-81 Cleveland Indians nor the 59-100 Texas Rangers are headed to the playoffs. However, while the Indians are barely under .500 and own a run-differential of minus-14, the Rangers are 41 games under .500 with the fourth-worst run differential in MLB at minus-186.

The Indians will send rookie right-hander Eli Morgan (4-7, 5.27 ERA) to the hill, who has quietly turned the corner with his performance of late. He was 2-1 with a 3.27 ERA in September. The Rangers counter with Spencer Howard (0-4, 7.04 ERA), who hasn't even come close to logging enough innings to even qualify for a win this season in seven starts.

The Indians have posted their first non-winning season in NINE years, but Cleveland made five playoff appearances in that span, including losing the World Series to the Cubs in seven games back in 2016. Meanwhile, the Rangers have now missed the postseason for a fifth straight year, going 97 games under .500 in that span.

Let's go Guardians. Get used to the new nickname!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the NY Yankees at 7:05 ET.

Tampa Bay has secured the AL East Crown for the second straight season, as well as its position as the AL's top-seed throughout the playoffs. The only thing it can do in this final series of the year against the Yankees is to try and play spoiler. 91-68 New York welcomes the Rays to the Bronx with a two-game lead over the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners for the No. 1 wild card spot. The Yankees are 8-1 in their last nine after losing 15 of 22 and capped a 5-1 road trip with a 6-2 win at Toronto on Thursday.

I'm NOT saying this ranks with the Red Sox/Yankees but these two teams have developed quite a rivalry in a relatively short time. The visitors hand the ball to Shane McClanahan (10-6, 3.44 ERA), who is 7-3 with a 2.83 ERA in 11 starts since the All-Star Break and leads Tampa Bay's traditional starters in wins. The home side counters with Nestor Cortes (2-2, 2.85), who will make his 14th start of 2021 and is 2-2 with a 3.01 ERA as a starting pitcher this year.McClanahan is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA (seven earned runs in 9.1 innings) in two career starts against the Yankees, including his lone start at Yankee Stadium on June 2, when he allowed a career-high-tying four runs in 3.1 innings. Cortes started against the Rays in Tampa Bay back on July 28, when he allowed one run on three hits in five innings of New York's 3-1 victory. He does not have a decision and owns a 4.41 ERA in six career appearances (one start) against the Rays.

Sure, the Rays would love to play the role of spoiler against the Yankees but the Rays could just as easily decide to  rest some starters in preparation for a deep playoff run. I'm laying the very reasonable price here with a surging Yankees team!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mil Brewers at 7:45 ET.

The 88-69 St Louis Cardinals defeated the Brewers 6-2 Tuesday in the opener a three-game series, a result that allowed St Louis to clinch a berth in the National League wild-card game. "We have a pretty good thing going right now," Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright told Bally Sports Midwest after the victory. "We might as well keep it rolling." That's an understatement! The Cardinals have won 17 straight! The Brewers are 94-63 but clinched the NL Central title on Sunday. However, Milwaukee  has lost SIX of its last nine games. FIVE of those losses have come at the hands of St louis!

The Cardinals will hand the ball to Miles Mikolas (2-2, 4.15 ERA), who gave up two runs over seven innings in a victory over these very same Brewers last Wednesday. However, Mikolas is NOT the same pitcher who went 18-4 (2.83) for the Cards back in 2018, after spending the previous three seasons in Japan. He fell to 9-14 (4.16 ERA) in 2019 and then missed all of 2020 after undergoing surgery to repair a flexor tendon in his right arm. He didn't make his 2021 debut until May 28 but left with more arm issues. He's made five September starts, going 2-1 (team is 4-1) but his ERA is 4.91!

The visitors counter with Adrian Houser (9-6, 3.34 ERA), who gave up one run off five hits over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision to St Louis last Thursday. Milwaukee led 5-0 but lost 8-5! Houser is 2-0 with a minuscule 0.45 ERA in three starts against St Louis this season and is 3-2 with a 2.62 ERA in 10 career outings (seven starts) vs the Cards.

Here's what I said about Houser in his start against St Louis last Thursday. " Expect Adrian Houser to be up to the task of besting Wainwright.  Houser's success this season has been overlooked because of Burnes, Peralta and Woodruff. Here's the 'dope.' The Brewers are 17-7 in Houser's 24 starts in 2021, giving MLB's 10th-best moneyline mark (+$792) among all starters. The Brewers are 12-1 in Houser's last 13 starts. He owns a 1.89 ERA in his three September starts." Well, Hauser did HIS part last Thursday, leaving with a 5-1 lead.

The Cards just clinched a playoff spot last night (EIGHTH in 11 years) and what a spot for a let down. The old saying that "all good things must come to an end" could not be more apt here. Ending the Cardinals streak and finishing the regular season with a couple of victories will go a long way for this Brewers side, which will finish out its regular season with a series in LA against the defending champions Dodgers.

The play is Milwaukee.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Getaway Day Game of the Week is on the Col Rockies at 3:10 ET.

The Rockies and Nationals have long ago been eliminated from postseason consideration and will play the "rubber match" of their three-game series this afternoon at Coors Field. The Rockies broke a five-game slide with last night's 3-1 victory, moving to 47-33 at home (Note: Rockies' home moneyline record of +$1,629 is the best in MLB!). NOTHING about the Nats' 2021 season can be described by the word best. Washington is 65-93 overall, including 30-50 on the road.

The visitors hand the ball to Paolo Espino, who is 5-5 with a 4.01 ERA. He entered this season with just 30 innings of work in his MLB career, posting a 5.10 ERA. He's made 34 appearances in 2021, including 18 starts but while his home ERA is a respectable 3.36, his road ERA is an 'ugly' 5.23. Welcome to Coors Field, Paolo. The home side counters with Peter Lambert (0-0, 4.91 ERA). Lambert was promoted to the major leagues by Colorado on June 6, 2019. He made his debut that same day at Wrigley Field vs the Chicago Cubs, giving up one run over seven innings while striking out nine, leading the Rockies to a 3-1 win. In 19 starts for Colorado, Lambert finished with a 3-7 record. In late July 2020, Lambert underwent Tommy John surgery and would miss the 2020 season. Lambert gave up two runs over four innings against the hard-hitting Giants on Friday. It was his first big league start since Tommy John surgery. "I felt good," Lambert said. "I wasn't exactly as sharp as I would've liked to have been. A few badly located fastballs in fastball counts, and they took advantage."

I expect Lambert to go deeper in today's start and see no reason to expect that Espino's 5.23 road ERA will improve here in his first-ever start at hitter-friendly Coors Field. It's my read that there is GREAT value on Colorado, which is playing its final game of 2021 in front of its fans.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout is on the Hou Astros at 8:10 ET.

The 95-59 Tampa Bay Rays have now clinched the AL East for the second season in a row and now set their sights on clinching the Al's No. 1 seed, as they open a three-game series over the 91-65 Houston Astros. All the Rays need to clinch the AL's best record is ONE win here vs the Astros. The Rays know the Astros well, as they opened a 3-0 lead over Houston in last year's ALCS, only to see Houston, despite its 29-31 regular season record, extend the Rays to a Game 7.

The visitors hand the ball to Michael Wacha (3-5, 5.49 ERA). Wacha is coming off his first relief stint following 12 consecutive starts during which he went 2-3 with a 5.82 ERA. Wacha's days as a quality starter are over. Jose Urquidy (8-3, 3.56 ERA) has the starting assignment for the Astros and is 2-0 with a 4.34 ERA over four starts (Astros are 3-1) since his return from a two-month stint on the injured list with right shoulder discomfort. 

Urquidy had one of his best starts of the season against the Rays back on May 1, pitching seven shutout innings with four hits, one walk and five strikeouts in the Astros' 3-1 victory. That was his first career appearance against Tampa Bay. The Astros are off a bad weekend (lost all three in Oakland but are 8-3 in their last 11 at home and 5-1 in their last six at home here vs the Rays.

I fully expect the Houston bats to "get to" Wacha and for Urquidy to give the Astros a solid start. Houston is the play.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Battle 4 the NL East is on the Phi Phillies at 7:20 ET.

We hear a lot lately about Seattle's push to end MLB's longest playoff drought (19 years since 2001) but the second-longest active playoff drought belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies, who own a NINE-year drought. The current NL East standings look like this. The Braves, winners of the division in each of the last three seasons, are 83-72 and the Phillies are 81-75, 2 1/2-games back. Philadelphia's best (only?) shot of closing in on the Braves will be in this three-game series.

Philadelphia began the 2021 season by sweeping the Braves in a three-game series and could really use another sweep, here. The Phillies are sending ace Zack Wheeler (14-9, 2.79 ERA) to the mound tonight, while the Braves counter with Charlie Morton (13-6, 3.53 ERA). Wheeler has won four in a row but did not receive a decision in his most recent start against Baltimore on Sep 22, when he allowed one run in six innings (Phils did win, 4-3. In his last four September starts, Wheeler has allowed just three ERs in 23.2 innings (1.14 ERA).

Morton was added to the Atlanta staff this season for moments like this. He is accustomed to playoff pressure (he's won five of his last six playoff starts) and has pitched in the World Series with Houston and Tampa Bay. He enters with a 2.95 ERA over his last 18 starts but the Braves have lost each of his last three starts (4.00 ERA). Morton has faced the Phillies 11 times in his career (teams are 6-5) but owns a 5.13 ERA. Meanwhile, Wheeler has faced the Braves 20 times in his career with a 3.19 ERA. That includes Wheeler going 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA against Atlanta in four starts this season (Phils are 3-1), with 34 strikeouts in 26.2 innings. 

Scherzer will likely win the Cy Young (maybe Milwaukee's Burnes) but Wheeler can make a case, as he leads in innings pitched 206.1) and in strikeouts (240), as well as complete games (3) and shutouts (2). It's essentially "do or die" for the Phillies and the Phillies check in at 7-2 in their last nine when playing with a day off. Expect them to answer the call tonight with their ace on the mound.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:07 ET.

There is "no rest for the weary" in this last week of the regular season. The Yankees swept the hated-Red Sox at Fenway Friday thru Sunday, as 89-67 New York took over the No. 1 wild card spot, one game ahead of the 88-68 Red Sox. However, after taking Monday off, the Yankees visit Toronto for the opener of a three-game series tonight. The 87-69 Blue jays are just TWO games behind the Yankees and ONE game behind the Red Sox.

The Yankees lost seven straight from Sep 4-10, went 5-4 over their next nine games but now enter on a six-game winning streak. As for the Jays, they are 20-8 since Aug 28, including winning all FOUR at Yankee Stadium from Sep 6-9. The Yankees will start Jameson Taillon (8-6, 4.41 ERA) tonight, who has been on the injured list since Sep 7 (right ankle tendon). He took the loss Sep. 6 against Toronto after allowing three runs and four hits in seven innings. It was his second straight loss after going undefeated in a career-high 15 straight starts from June 5-Aug 26 (he was 7-0 and the team 11-4). The Blue Jays will go with Hyun Jin Ryu (13-9, 4.34 ERA), who has been on the IL since Sept. 18 (tight neck). Ryu is just 2-4 with a 8.10 ERA in his last eight starts (Jays are 4-4).

Ryu was not in great form prior to going on the IL but he is 2-0, 1.88 ERA, in four starts this season against the Yankees (Jays are 3-1). Getting Ryu from the Dodgers prior to the 2020 season was a great move. He's their 'go-to' guy and I expect him to come up big here, catching the Yankees off that three-game sweep at Fenway.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Sunday Night Game of the Mont is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:08 ET.

The Yankees won 8-3 Friday night at Fenway but trailed 2-1 in the eighth inning of Saturday's contest before Giancarlo Stanton crushed a grand slam over the Green Monster, giving the Yanks a 5-3 win and moving them into a tie with the Red Sox at the top of the AL's wild card standings at 88-67. The No. 1 team gets to host the No. 2 team in a one-game, winner-take-all playoff for the chance to move on to the AL Division Series, where the Tampa Bay Rays will be waiting. Cleary, tonight's result is HUGE but not just for the Yanks and Red Sox, but also for Toronto (two games back) and Seattle (three games back).

Handicapping the race, the Red Sox have a MUCH easier road in the season's last week, as they embark on a six-game road trip against cellar dwellers in the Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals. Meanwhile, the Yankees will visit the Blue Jays after Sunday's series finale before ending their season hosting the first-place Tampa Bay Rays. The Yanks probably need the game more but the LAST thing that Boston wants is to get swept at home against New York this slate in the season.

Jordan Montgomery (6-6, 3.55 ERA) gets the nod for the Yankees, while Eduardo Rodriguez (11-8, 4.97 ERA) gets the call for the Red Sox. Montgomery gave up one run and struck out six over six innings in a 7-1 victory over the lowly Rangers on Tuesday. However, it was just his SECOND win since July 27th. Over his last EIGHT starts, he's posted a 2.93 ERA but the Yanks are just 4-4 in those games. Rodriguez was a big MONEY-MAKER for the Red Sox in 2018 and 2019 (team was 45-12, +$1,712 in his starts) but he sat out in 2020. He's back to 'making money' for backers here in 2021, going 18-11, +$540.

E-Rod is EXACTLY the starting pitcher the Red Sox want on the mound tonight in trying to salvage the series finale. He is 8-6 with a 3.73 ERA in 22 games (20 starts) lifetime against New York, including going 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four starts versus the Yankees this year. Meanwhile, Montgomery is 0-2 with a 3.63 ERA in four starts against the Red Sox this season and 1-2 with a 3.91 ERA in 10 starts (Yanks are 4-6) for his career. Boston avoids the home sweep and sets its sights on clinching the No. 1 wild card sp0t at Baltimore and Washington!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Mariners at 4:07 ET.

The 86-59 Seattle Mariners are three games behind the AL's second wild card spot and with just SEVEN games left to their season, will need a STRONG finish (and get some help) to reach the postseason for first since 2001. As for the Angels, despite owning two of MLB's marquee stars (Trout and Ohtani), they will sit out the postseason for the SEVENTH straight year and for the 11th time in the last 12!

Seattle can only take it "one game at a time" and Sunday, the Mariners send Marco Gonzales (9-5, 4.14 ERA) to the mound to oppose the aforementioned Shohei Ohtani (9-2, 3.28 ERA). Seattle's Chris Flexen owns MLB's best moneyline mark (+$1,458) but Gonzales could be the team's hottest starter. His last loss came back on July 3, with him going 8-0 over his last 13 stars (team is 10-3). In that span, got a 2.95 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP spanning 79.1 innings (he's posted a quality start in EIGHT of his last 10 trips to the mound). There was talk the Angels were going shut down Ohtani for the last two weeks of the season, after he allowed nine hits and six ERs over 3.1 innings at Houston on Sep 10. However, he was back on the mound Sep 19, pitching eight innings and allowing just two ERs with 10 Ks. Ohtani is a MAJOR talent at bat and on the mound but his 9-2 W/L mark is somewhat deceiving, as the Angels are a more modest 13-9, +$57 in his 22 starts

Getting back to Gonzales, he's 8-1 with a 3.62 ERA in 16 career starts vs the Angels (team is 12-4). Then there is Seattle's +$3,419 moneyline record, which trails only the 101-win Giants' by $27! Note, the Giants are 16 games BETTER than Seattle in the standings. Compare that to LA's -$517 moneyline mark and we see an almost $4,000 difference. GREAT value with Gonzales and Seattle!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* "1st Pitch" is on the Bal Orioles at 1:05 ET.

The 56-99 Texas Rangers and the host Baltimore Orioles (50-105) wrap up a four-game series Sunday afternoon. One can see by their respective records, that there is NOTHING on the line in this contest. However, there is a 'winner in EVERY game' and here I believe it's Baltimore.

Dave Dunning (5-9, 4.34 ERA) pitched 34 innings for the White Sox in 2020 and hasn't done much with Texas here in 2021, making 25 appearances (23 starts). He is making his first start since August 20th and reports are that he'll likely throw only two innings before making way for Kolby Allard. Baltimore counters with John Means (6-7, 3.25 ERA) in the series finale (Orioles have won two of the first three).

You may remember that Means threw a no-hitter back on May 5th, blanking the Mariners 6-0. He struck out 12 and didn't walk a batter, missing out on a perfect game only because of a wild pitch! Means is off an excellent outing this past Monday against the Phillies, pitching 6.2 scoreless innings of a 2-0 win. It was his first victory since July 31 but note that in his four start, (prior to the win over Philly, he allowed just two ERs in each outing, posting a 3.00 ERA. On the season (138.2 innings of work), he owns an elite 124/26 KW ratio.

Yes, Means is winless in three career starts vs Texas but in those outings, he owns a minuscule 1.37 ERA! The FOURTH time "is the charm!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the Det Tigers at 6:10 ET.

Two teams that won't be in the playoffs collide on Saturday, when the Royals play the Tigers on Saturday. The KC Royals have faded since a surprising 16-9 start and at 70-83, will miss the playoffs for the SIXTH straight season.  KC won the series opener 3-1 last night, dropping the Tigers  to 74-79.  That said, Detroit fans have to be happy that the Tigers are MUCH more respectable this season, after losing 98, 98 and 114 games from 2017 thru 2019, then going 23-35 (.397) in 2020's COVID-shortened season. The team's .487 win percentage is a big improvement plus the team's moneyline mark of plus-$2,435 is the THIRD-best in MLB!

The Royals will hand the ball to Jon Heasley (0-1, 9.00 ERA), who gave up four runs off six hits (including two HRs) over four innings in his big league debut against the Mariners a week ago Friday (9/17). He was a late replacement for Brady Singer  When Heasley delivered his first pitch, he became the FIFTH Royals pitcher selected in the 2018 draft to pitch for the big league club. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the 2021 Royals are the first team in MLB history to have five pitchers from the same draft class start a game in one season.

The Tigers will counter with Tarik Skubal (8-12, 4.25 ERA) who has posted 162 strikeouts over 142 innings this year. His record belies how well he's pitched since Aug 1. He's made eight starts and while he's 2-2 and the team just 4-4, here is a 'deeper' look. He allowed six ERs in an 8/31 start vs the A's but in his other seven starts since Aug 1, he's allowed two ERs or less in EACH one (2.27 ERA!).

The Royals have won all four of their meetings with the Tigers since the All-Star break but I'll back Skubal (owns a 3.72 home ERA), as the Tigers stop their recent slide against the Royals.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the Oak A's at 4:07 ET.

Oakland broke a FOUR-game slide with a big 14-2 win in yesterday's series opener against the Astros. It was a much-needed win, after Oakland lost all four games (at home!) to Seattle to open the week. The A's won the AL West last season but have fallen EIGHT games behind the division-leading Astros, who own a seemingly safe six-game lead over the Mariners with just nine days left in the regular season. Oakland's only hope of playing baseball after Oct 3 is to somehow earn a wild card spot. However, that too seems unlikely, as the A's are FIVE back of the Red Sox (No. 1) and FOUR back of the NY Yankees (No. 2).

Houston was just 29-31 last season (yet made it all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS before losing) and would surely like to clinch the AL's No. 2 seed, so the Astros could host the White Sox.The visiting side hands the ball to Framber Valdez (11-5, 3.07 ERA), who is off a good start over the Angels, going seven scoreless and striking out six. Previous to that, Valdez had posted two straight starts in which he surrendered four ERs in each outing. The Astros are 13-7 in his 20 starts in 2021 but in his lone start vs the A's, he allowed six runs (five earned) on 10 hits ERs over five innings!

Oakland goes with Sean Manaea (10-10, 4.05 ERA), who is coming off an outing to forget against the Mariners on Monday (allowed four runs over three innings). The A's think highly of this lefty, who won 12 games in both 2017 and 2018. In September of 2018 he was ruled out for the season and for the 2019 season as well, due to shoulder surgery. Manaea did spend the majority of the 2019 season rehabbing his shoulder but made his season debut on September 5 and was 4-0 with 1.21 ERA over five starts (team was 4-1). Manaea does not have a good lifetime record vs Houston but does own a highly respectable 3.60 ERA inn 17 lifetime starts against the hard-hitting Astros

Did Oakland 'shoot its wad' with 14 runs in Friday's win? Not according to this stat. Oakland is a near-perfect 7-1 in its last eight after a 10 runs or greater victory in its previous outing!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mil Brewers at 8:10 ET.

Paul Goldschmidt homered twice and the Cardinals rallied from FIVE runs down for an 8-5 victory Thursday to extend their winning streak to 12 games. The Brewers jumped out to a 5-0 lead but the bullpen failed to hold it, wasting a quality start by Adrian Houser (allowed one run on five hits in six innings). The four-game sweep at the hands of the Cardinals means the Brewers have lost five in a row and seven of nine. Yes, the Brewers led the Central by 14 games back on Sep 12 but Milwaukee has already clinched a playoff spot and  its magic number for clinching the division title is just three.

Milwaukee needs to quickly regroup, refocus and get back on track to lock down the division crown. The Mets visit Milwaukee for three games this weekend and should play the perfect foil. New York was 48-40 at the All Star break but have lost SEVEN of eight to go just 25-39 since the break. That leaves them 7 1/2 games back of the Braves in the NL East and a whopping 10 games back in the wild card race (bye-bye). Rookie right-hander Tylor Megill (3-5, 4.57 ERA) takes the mound for the Mets, while Eric Lauer (6-5, 3.03 ERA) goes for Milwaukee.

Megill made his MLB debut July 23 and by the end of July had made seven starts. He was just 100 but his ERA of 2.04 allowed the Mets to go 6-1. However, since that strong start, he's made nine starts, going 2-5 (team is 3-6) while posting a 6.55 ERA. Lauer is in his fourth season and it's the best of his career. He has a .216 BAA  to go along with his solid 3.03 ERA and over his last 13 appearances (12 starts), he owns a 1.83 ERA.

Milwaukee gets a MUCH-needed "W" in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Division Dominator (AL Central) is on the Chi White Sox at 7:10 ET.

The Chicago White Sox snapped an 11-year playoff drought last season and Thursday earned their first AL Central title since 2008 with yesterday's series-opening 7-2 victory over the Indians (Cleveland won the nightcap 5-3). "The whole thing for me is Fantasy Island," White Sox manager Tony La Russa assessed last night. "Coming back like this. We all know the truth. The first three jobs, the clubs were struggling when I took over. Managers don't walk into a situation like this, with a team so ready to win, so I'm very, very fortunate."

 No reason to think Chicago will take the foot off the gas here, as they send Dylan Cease (12-7, 4.09 ERA) to the mound against Shane Bieber (7-4, 3.28 ERA) Cease looks to close out his regular season strong for the White Sox and he enters off one of the best starts the season, scattering four hits and striking out 10 over five scoreless innings in a victory over the Rangers. Shane Bieber gets the nod for the home side, as he returns here after a three-month absence due to a rotator cuff injury. Bieber won the AL Cy Young award last season (8-1 with a 1.63 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and .167 BAA). His numbers before he got hurt were good but his ERA is double of last season, his WHIP ,38 higher and is BAA .45 points higher. How much does Bieber have and how long will he be allowed to go?

 The White had their "let down" in Game 2 on Thursday and should be challenged by facing Bieber. What's more, since Cease allowed six ERs against Minnesota back on July 5th, he's allowed three ERs or less in 12 of his last 13 starts.

 The play is Chicago. 

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Getaway Day Game of the Month is on the Mil Brewers at 2:10 ET.

The Brewers have lost the first THREE of this four-game home series against the red-hot Cardinals. St Louis has won 11 straight and now has the inside track on the No. 2 wild card, as the Cards' 10-2 win Wednesday gives the team a 4 1/2-game lead on the Reds and Phillies.

St Louis has not clinched the No. 2 spot yet and veteran Adam Wainwright (16-7, 2.89 ERA) will take the mound looking to help the Cardinals complete a four-game sweep at Miller Park. Wainwright is arguably the hottest pitcher in MLB since the All-Star game. The Cards are 11-1 (he has a 1.81 ERA) over his last 12 starts. As for Milwaukee, despite losing Mon-Wed, the Brewers still lead the Cards by 8 1/2-games in the NL Central and only have 10 games remaining. They're going to clinch the division shortly and they'll be at home vs the East winner in the NLDS.

OK, all 'cards' on the table (pardon the pun!). I've played against Wainwright in each of his last two starts and while I've come up short each time, I believe the third time's a charm. I'm  looking for Adrian Houser (9-6, 3.43 ERA) to be up to the task of besting Wainwright.  Houser's success this season has been overlooked because of Burnes, Peralta and Woodruff. Here's the 'dope.' The Brewers are 17-7 in Houser's 24 starts in 2021, giving MLB's 10th-best moneyline mark (+$792) among all starters. Think Wainwright is on a roll? How about this? The Brewers are 12-1 in Houser's last 13 starts. He owns a 1.89 ERA in his three September starts (28 Ks in 19 IP) and owns a 2.93 home ERA on the season.

Yes, the Brewers will soon clinch the NL Central but they sure DON'T want to get swept at home by the Cards at this time of year. Enough is ENOUGH!  No four-game sweep for St Louis today. The play is Milwaukee.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the SD Padres at 10:10 ET.

The Giants continue to go toe-to-toe with the Dodgers, as they currently own a ONE-game lead in the 'battle' for the NL West crown and MLB's best overall record. Meanwhile, the Padres, who were expected to be the NL West team that would 'push' the Dodgers in 2021, have lost EIGHT of their last 10 (including four in a row) after last night's 6-5 loss to the Giants. The 76-74 Padres are now on the brink of elimination in the NL wild-card race, having fallen FIVE games back with just 12 to play.

The second contest of this three-game series is tonight and will feature a couple of pitchers plucked from the scrap heap. The Giants will go with 37-year-old Scott Kazmir (0-1, 6.43 ERA) in the spot normally occupied by the injured Johnny Cueto (elbow). Kazmir was signed to a minor-league deal earlier this year but hasn't won a major-league game since 2016. However, he has won four times this season, three times at Sacramento and once in Tokyo while pitching for Team USA in the Olympics. 

The Padres are turning to Vince Velasquez (3-7, 6.09 ERA), who was added by San Diego last week to help fill out a starting rotation that's been missing injured Blake Snell and Chris Paddack. Velasquez had been released by the Philadelphia Phillies three days earlier. He made his Padres debut last Friday at St Louis in an 8-2 loss, allowing four runs in four innings.

Neither starter instills much confidence but Velasquez has been pitching in the majors regularly, while expecting much of anything from Kamir, is nothing more than wishful thinking. 'Last Chance Saloon' these days for San Diego. The bet says that Kazmir may be "just what the doctor ordered!" 

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout is on the Oak A's at 9:40 ET.

Oakland opened its four-game home series with Seattle having won five in a row but after back-to-back losses Monday and Tuesday, the A's and Mariners are both 82-69, leaving them three games back of the red-hot Blue Jays for the AL's No. 2 wild card spot. The last two games of this series could be a make-or-break situation for one of the teams.

The starting pitchers are Seattle's (12-6, 3.66 ERA) and Oakland's Cole Irvin (10-13, 3.94 ERA). Flexen began his career with the Mets, going 3-11 with an 8.07 ERA. He was designated for assignment in late 2019 and signed a one-year contract with KBO's Doosan Bears, the reigning Korean Series champion. Flexen pitched to a 3.01 ERA with 10.2 K/9 for the Bears in 2020. He then signed a two-year, $4.75 million contract with the Seattle Mariners. He's blossomed into Seattle's 'ace!' Seattle is 19-9 in his 28 starts, giving him MLB's best moneyline mark (+$1,318) among all starters!

Irvin pitched for Philly in 2019 and 2020, making 19 appearances (three starts) in going 2-2 with a 6.75 ERA. He was traded to Oakland in January 2021 and has become a regular in Oakland's rotation. He comes into this big game having allowed just three ERs over 13 innings of his last two starts, giving him a 2.08 ERA and an 11-2 KW ratio.

It's impossible to say anything negative about Flexen but I'm confident in what we'll see tonight from Oakland's Irvin, who has now allowed three or fewer runs in EIGHT of his last nine trips to the mound. Oakland's been to the postseason in each of the last three years, while Seattle's last playoff appearance was back in 2001 (19-year drought!). So far, Seattle has looked the better team in this series (A's have scored just two runs in each of the first two) but the bet here is that's about to change.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Dominator (NL Central) is on the Mil Brewers at 7:40 ET.

The St Louis Cardinals battled through serious COVID issues in 2020 to make the postseason for the SEVENTH time in the last 10 years. The 2021 Cards  have surged to 12 wins in their last 13, including 10 in a row after beating the Brewers 2-1 last night in Milwaukee. The 81-69 Cards are now FOUR games ahead in the race for the NL's No. 2 wild card spot. The Brewers managed to make the expanded playoff field in 2020, despite a 29-31 record. However, the Brewers are currently 91-60, 9 1/2-games up in the NL Central over the Cards (it's the second-largest division lead in MLB).

While the Brewers have all but clinched the division title, I believe Milwaukee is in need of a win here. The Brewers have lost FIVE of their last seven, including each of the first two of this four-game series against the surging Cardinals. The visitors hand the ball to Miles Mikolas (1-2, 4.50 ERA), who is nowhere near the pitcher he was back in 2018, when he went 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA to finish 6th in the Cy Young voting. He followed with a 9-14 (4.16 ERA) in 2019 and then missed the entire 2020 season due to undergoing surgery to repair a flexor tendon in his right arm. He's been limited to just seven starts in 2021 and while he's off a good outing against the struggling Padres on Friday (pitched 5.2 scoreless innings in his first victory of the year), his sample size is small for 2021. We do know this. His home ERA is 3.21 but his road ERA is 8.59!

Milwaukee's Brett Anderson (4-8, 4.18 ERA) has been around since 2009 and has pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate. He's been reactivated off the 10-day IL after a minor shoulder issue. He owns a 3.04 ERA in five career starts against St Louis and beat them 9-3 back on April 11 (allowed one run on five hits and two walks in five innings).

My mother taught me to never stand in front of trains, but in this case, Mikolas and the Cards are going to finally get derailed by this revenge-minded Brewers side which is 7-2 in its last nine when trying to avenge back-to-back home losses against an opponent. It's a GREAT price on Milwaukee.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AL Wild Card Showdown is on the Oak A's at 9:40 ET.

Seattle earned a crucial 4-2 win here yesterday, ending Oakland's five-game winning streak. The two wild card contenders are back at it again tonight, playing the second contest of which will be a FOUR-game series. Boston is the AL's No. 1 wild card team, with Toronto 1 1/2-games back of the Red Sox. The Yankees trail the Jays by just a half-game and then comes Oakland (two back) and Seattle (three back). Clearly, this is a crucial series.

The Mariners hand the ball to the red-hot Marco Gonzales (8-5, 4.05 ERA), who is off a no-decision against Boston last Wednesday, conceding three runs off three hits over six innings. Gonzales started off the season in terrible form, but post July 4th, he's made 11 starts and gone 7-0 with a 2.70 ERA (team is 8-3). Since the beginning of August, he's posted a 2.37 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and 39/10 KW ration over 57 innings. Regression at some point will be imminent for the clearly overachieving Gonzales and his home ERA (3.60) is better than on the road ERA (4.61).

The A's counter with Paul Blackburn (1-2, 4.94 ERA). Blackburn's in his fifth season and has made just 27 appearances (24 starts) with a 6-9 record (4.94 ERA) in his career. Blackburn is off a 7-2 win last Thursday at KC (allowed two ERs in five innings), giving him his first victory since June 29, 2018.

Sure the starting pitcher 'nod' goes to Seattle but as noted above, Gonzales is overdue for a "clunker." Oakland is just ONE game ahead of Seattle in the wild card race, so this now becomes a crucial bounce-back spot for the home side. Manaea gave up four runs on eight hits in five innings in yesterday's loss and it marked the first time in three games A's starting pitchers had allowed a run. In fact, Oakland starters had been 6-1 over the previous 12 outings!

Oakland's been to the postseason in each of the last three years, while Seattle's last playoff appearance was back in 2001 (19-year drought!). I'm backing the A's.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:10 ET.

The Rays are chasing their second straight AL East title and have just about clinched things, as Tampa Bay is 93-58. The Rays own a seven-game lead over the second-place Red Sox, with just 11 games left to play. In contrast, the Blue Jays are simply chasing a wildcard spot.  Boston owns the No. 1 wild card spot, with Toronto 1 1/2-games back. However, the Jays are just a half-game better than the Yankees  plus Oak (2-back) and Seattle (3-back) may still have something to say about which team plays past Oct 3.

Alek Manoah (6-2, 3.39 ERA) starts for Toronto and he's been very consistent all season long. He's made 17 starts and the Jays have gone 13-4, giving him a +$615 moneyline mark. Over 93 innings of work, Manoah owns an elite 102/31 KW ratio .He enters on top form , most recently going eight scoreless and striking out 10 without walking a batter in a victory over Tampa last Monday. He may be just 1-0 in his last five starts but the Jays are 5-0!

Drew Rasmussen (3-0, 2,57 ERA) gets the call here for Tampa, and he's off five scoreless over Toronto last Tuesday. The rookie has made 18 appearances but just eight starts. However, he's been sharp so far in his spot starts and has become a regular lately, making six starts in a row. He owns a 1.567 in that span (team is 5-1) but he's never pitched more than five innings

Holding back Toronto's big bats in back-to-back starts is a tall order, even for the elite in this league. I had a play on Toronto last night and while that one came up short, I believe the Jays have what it takes to bounce back on the road in this important contest. After all, the Rays are just 9-10 in September, while Toronto's playoff 'push' has seen them go 18-5 since August 28.

The oddsmakers in Las Vegas are certainly trying to lead us to believe that these teams are very evenly matched tonight and in the end, I'm betting on Manoah over Rasmussen.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:10 ET.

I appreciate the Tampa Bay Rays. How can you not if you're a fan of baseball? Great pitching. Great starting pitching and a strong bullpen. The Rays are the masters of playing "small ball." The Rays were AL champs last season and they've defied the odds again this year despite a rash of injuries and are on the verge of securing the top spot in the AL again in 2021. Tampa is 92-58 and 6 1/2-games up in the AL East, The Rays welcome the 85-64 Toronto Blue Jays to Tropicana Field for a three-game series that begins tonight. While the Rays are almost assured a spot in the postseason, the Jays are still not. This game (and series!) "means more" to Toronto.

Robbie Ray (12-5, 2.64) is coming off his 12th win of the year on Wednesday, allowing one run and striking out 13 over seven innings over these very Rays (he's made seven career starts vs Tampa Bay, posting a 2.45 ERA). Ray is on pace to have his best season since he went 15-5 (2.89 ERA) in 2017 with Arizona. As for Tampa Bay, it is countering by calling up No. 20 overall prospect Shane Baz to make his Major League debut Monday. Baz becomes the sixth current or 2021 preseason Top-100 prospect to play for the Rays this season alongside Wander Franco, Vidal Bruján, Shane McClanahan, Luis Patiño and Josh Lowe. This 22-year-old has earned his promotion to "The Show." posting a 2.06 ERA with 113 strikeouts and 13 walks in 78.2 innings between Double-A Montgomery and Triple-A Durham. He was even better at the higher level with a 1.76 ERA with 64 Ks in 10 starts (46 innings) after joining the Bulls on June 15. 

Despite how well Shane Baz has performed in the minors, this is still a MAJOR mismatch on the mound between starting pitchers. As noted above, Ray owns a 2.45 ERA in seven career starts vs Tampa Bay but let me add that FIVE of those starts have come in 2021 and he's posted a 1.85 ERA. One could argue that this game and series are Toronto's most important of the entire season, Considering that the  Blue Jays are 15-3 in September, while the Rays are just 8-10, it's the 'PERFECT' setup for a Toronto win.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the Sea Mariners at 2:10 ET.

The KC Royals have faded since a surprising 16-9 start and at 67-80, will miss the playoffs for the SIXTH straight season. However, they can still have a say in other teams' chances to play past Oct 3. That's exactly what KC did on Saturday, beating the Mariners 8-1 (Seattle won Friday's game 6-2). The Mariners arrived in KC having lost four of their last five (had also lost three straight series!) and now find themselves in a critical situation in Sunday's rubber match. Seattle is FOUR games back of the No. 2 wild card spot in the AL (held by the Blue Jays) and also would have to first climb over the A's and Yankees.

Seattle almost "can't afford" NOT to take Sunday's finale and with what I feel to be the superior starting pitcher on the hill for them, I like the Mariners to respond to yesterday's defeat. The Mariners hand the ball to rookie Logan Gilbert (5-5, 4.97 ERA), who has seen Seattle go 13-8 in his starts (+$856 moneyline record is 8th-best among all MLB starters!). He had an awful August (0-3 with a 9.17 ERA in five starts / team was 0-5) but in three September starts, he owns a 2.35 ERA. He enters off likely his best start of the season, allowing two runs and striking out nine over six innings, unfortunate to earn a no-decision for his effort.

The home side counters with volatile rookie Jackson Kowar (0-3, 11.50 ERA), who was shelled for five runs off three hits with four walks over just one inning in an unbelievably fortunate no-decision against the A's on Tuesday. Kowar has made six appearances (five starts) and to go along with that 'ugly' ERA, he owns a 2.17 WHIP and a .333 BAA! In THREE of his five starts, he's lasted 0.2, 1.1 and 1.0 innings!

Considering the massive talent discrepancy and recent form of these starting pitchers, plus the fact that Seattle owns MLB's second-best moneyline mark (only the Giants are better), I think that the Mariners could/should in fact be much larger favorites in this important contest.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* "1st Pitch" is on the Cin Reds at 1:10 ET.

It's all hands on deck for Cincinnati! The panic button has been pressed. The Reds need a winning streak here to finish off the regular season and stay in the mix, after losing SIX of their last 10. The Reds currently trail the Cardinals by two games for the NL's wild card spot plus are just a half-game ahead of both the Phillies and Padres. Meanwhile, the Dodgers, who have won EIGHT consecutive NL West titles, find themselves TWO games behind the Giants. Both SF and LA have clinched playoff spots but there is a HUGE difference between winning the division and having to play a one-game, lose-or-go-home wild card game.

The Reds won Friday night but lost 5-1 to the defending champs on Saturday. A win here would be a HUGE boost for Cincy's confidence and I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the hungry home underdog. Clayton Kershaw (9-7, 3.33 ERA) toes the slab for the visiting side, and he most recently returned from injury and gave up one run over 4.1 innings in a no-decision to the Diamondbacks on Monday (it was his first start since July 3rd!). It's difficult to say anything negative about the veteran, but if he's had one knock against him, it's definitely been his play on the road where he's 4-4 with a 4.12 ERA (compared to 5-3, 2.75 at home). Also note that while LA is 12-7 in his starts, he's -$48 vs the moneyline.

The Reds counter with Wade Miley (12-6, 3.09 ERA), who enters off his worst start of the season, allowing six runs over five innings in a loss to the Pirates on Tuesday. However, Miley could be headed for a career season (his career began back in 2011), topping his 14-6 (3.98 ERA) for Houston in 2019. It was just the second time this season he's conceded six or more runs. I say it's too early to hit the panic button on Miley and he should feel confident that he can bounce back here as he's 7-3 with a 2.88 ERA in front of the hometown crowd this season.

The Dodgers have a night off Monday, before back-to-back favorable road series at Colorado and Arizona. I say they get caught looking ahead here as well. This one means A LOT to Cincinnati. I like the Reds to dig deep and for Miley to bounce back at home. The play is the Reds.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the SD Padres at 7:15 ET.

The SD Padres broke a 13-year playoff drought going 37-23 in 2020 and were expected to be the Dodgers' main competition in the NL West in 2021. However, it's been the Giants battling with LA for the division's top spot, while the Padres find themselves in a life-and-death struggle to earn the NL's No. 2 wild card spot. The Padres broke a five-game slide with two crucial wins at San Francisco earlier this week, but they then came out flat and fell 8-2 in the opener of this series with the Cards yesterday. San Diego has now lost SEVEN of 10 and at 77-71, are 1 1/2-games back of 77-69 St Louis, which has won EIGHT of 10, including SIX in a row (note: Cards have made the postseason in SEVEN of the last 10 years)..

The final two games of this series are HUGE for both teams, as the Reds are also in the hunt for that No. 2 spot with a 76-71 record. Yu Darvish (8-10, 4.32 ERA) starts for the Padres and Adam Wainwright (16-7, 2.88 ERA) for the Cards. Darvish has been a major disappointment for San Diego, after the team won 11 of his first 12 starts in 2021. The Padres are just 5-10 over his last 15 starts, with Darvish coming off of his worst outing of the season. The San Francisco Giants had four HRs and scored EIGHT runs in four innings off him during their 9-1 victory last Monday. In contrast,  Wainwright has defied the odds (and age) to put together his best season since he won 20 games twice and 19 games twice in a five-season span from 2009-14 (he sat out all of the 2011 season). Wainwright has gone 9-1 (team is 10-1) over his last 11 starts, posting a 1.72 ERA.

I won't even bother trying to 'knock' Wainwright. I will say this, though. St Louis is just 3-7 in its last 10 after five or more straight victories, while San Diego is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a five runs or greater loss to an opponent. Darvish has all the talent in the world and even in this disappointing season, his WHIP is just 1.09 and his KW ratio is 177-36!

While many will likely be riding the Cardinals' recent surge (as well as Wainwright's), I say the value has now swung the other way. The play is San Diego.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Mariners at 7:10 ET.

Here's how I opened my analysis Friday (Signature 38-Club Play on Seattle). The KC Royals have faded since a surprising 16-9 start and at 66-80, will miss the playoffs for the SIXTH straight season. However, they can still have a say in other teams' chances to play past Oct 3. One of those teams is the Seattle Mariners, who visit Kauffman Stadium for a three-game series with the Royals starting tonight. The Mariners come to KC having lost four of their last five (have also lost three straight series!) and are now FOUR games back in the AL's five-team 'scramble' for two wild card spots. If Seattle is going to play in the postseason, it's going to not only have to win some games, but it's also going to have to win some series. Here's the perfect opponent to get untracked against.

Seattle would win 6-2 but KC made a pitching change, so I had to settle for a no-play (it happens). Brady Singer was scratched and Jonathan Heasley made his MLB debut. Seattle spoiled it, reaching Heasley for four ERs in four innings. Seattle can't afford to take its foot off the gas, as it has to keep winning games, especially against teams like Kansas City, which is essentially eliminated from playoff contention. The Mariners will send Yusei Kikuchi (7-8, 4.23 ERA) to the mound to face Kris Bubic (4-6, 4.99 ERA) in a battle of left-handers. Kikuchi is off a gem against the Diamondbacks last Sunday, allowing one run and striking out eight over five innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. Expect Kikuchi to carry over that 'mojo' in this one against KC. Bubic gave up three runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Twins this past Sunday. All things considered, he's been serviceable in 2021, as the Royals are 13-14 in his starts. However, in his lone appearance against the M's this season, he conceded five runs off nine hits over four innings.

Seattle remains three games back of that No. 2 wild card spot, as FIVE teams are in a 'scramble' for two spots. A series sweep of KC would surely help. Note that with Seattle's win last night, the Mariners are now 7-0 in their last seven road games against teams with losing records. As I did last night, I'll also remind all that Seattle's moneyline mark of +$2,877 (at $100/game) is second to only San Francisco's mark of +$3,215. Pretty impressive, since the Giants are 16 games better than Seattle in the W/L department. All things considered, this is a GREAT price. The play is Seattle.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "Signature" 38-Club Play is on the Sea Mariners at 8:10 ET.

The KC Royals have faded since a surprising 16-9 start and at 66-80, will miss the playoffs for the SIXTH straight season. However, they can still have a say in other teams' chances to play past Oct 3. One of those teams is the Seattle Mariners, who visit Kauffman Stadium for a three-game series with the Royals starting tonight. The Mariners come to KC having lost four of their last five (have also lost three straight series!) and are now FOUR games back in the AL's five-team 'scramble' for two wild card spots. If Seattle is going to play in the postseason, it's going to not only have to win some games, but it's also going to have to win some series. Here's the perfect opponent to get untracked against.

Chris Flexen (11-6, 3.73 ERA) gets the ball for the Mariners. He began his career with the Mets, going 3-11 with an 8.07 ERA. He was designated for assignment in late 2019 and signed a one-year contract with KBO's Doosan Bears, the reigning Korean Series champion. Flexen pitched to a 3.01 ERA with 10.2 K/9 for the Bears in 2020. He then signed a two-year, $4.75 million contract with the Seattle Mariners. He's blossomed into Seattle's 'ace!' He's off a rare poor effort last Saturday against Arizona, allowing five runs over five innings. Note though, that in 27 starts this year Flexen has conceded more than four runs just five times. Seattle is 18-9 in his 27 starts, giving him a moneyline record of +$1,227 ($100/game) that is No. 1 among all MLB starters.

The home side counters with Brady Singer (4-10, 4.85 ERA), who after posting his best start of the season (going seven scoreless against the White Sox), would then promptly get shelled in his next trip to the hill, allowing six runs off seven hits over four innings to the last-place Twins. Singer has made 25 starts in 2021 with KC going 8-17, giving him a moneyline record of -$766.

Seattle is 6-0 in its last six road games against teams with losing records and with Flexen on the mound, this is a VERY favorable spot (and a GREAT price) for the Mariners to bounce back. Seattle does indeed earn 38-Club Play status!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Getaway Day Game of the Week is on the Oak A's at 2:10 ET.

Toronto and New York are 82-64 and Boston is 83-65, placing them in a virtual tie atop the AL wild card standing (only two get in). The 78-67 Oakland A's 3 1/2-games back, so the A's can't afford to look past any opportunity for  a win. That was the case last night as well, when the A's beat KC 12-10 (10* Las Vegas Insider win for my clients), one night after blowing a six-run lead in a 10-7 loss in the series opener.

This afternoon contest closes out the series, with Oakland going with Paul Blackburn (0-2, 5.24 ERA) facing KC rookie Daniel Lynch (4-4, 5.37 ERA).

Blackburn's in his fifth season and has made just 26 appearances (23 starts) with a 5-9 record (5.61 ERA) in his career. He's faced the Royals twice and he owns a 1-0, 4.50 ERA record against them.

This selection is NOT about the starting pitchers. The Royals have d=faded since a surprising 16-9 start and at 66-79, will miss the playoffs for the SIXTH straight season. As noted, Oakland still has a viable chance to make it into its FOURTH straight postseason. The A's on the other hand are 12-4 in their last 16 on this field.

Look for the 'hungry' Athletics to go up early and then never look back.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the SD Padres at 9:45 ET.

It's been quite a season for the Giants, who hadn't been relevant since 2015. San Francisco was the first team to clinch a playoff spot on Monday (9-1) and beat the Padres 6-1 again last night, giving them NINE straight wins and MLB's best overall record (95-50), as well as its best moneyline mark (+$3,354 at $100/game).

As for the 74-70 Padres, they are one game back of the Cards, who own the NL's No. 2 wild card spot (Reds are a half-game back of the Cards and a half-game ahead of the Padres). It's now or never for San Diego, which needs to string some wins together immediately. The Padres have lost SEVEN of their last 10, including FIVE straight (includes the first two games of this series). Over their last three games, the Friars have managed just TWO total runs, while conceding 23.

Perhaps the Giants really are the most undervalued team. By the bookmakers that is. I'm amazed that night and night out the team with the best record in baseball is so affordably priced (see above!). Such was the case last night again. However, in this case, I believe that San Diego's Joe Musgrove isn't getting nearly enough respect in this particular starting pitching matchup.

Musgrove (10-9, 2.93 ERA) gave up three runs over six innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Friday. Clearly, Musgrove's win/loss record is not indicative of his overall play this season, as to go along with his 2.93 ERA, he also sports a 1.03 WHIP and 180/45 KW ratio over 159.2 innings of work (he's 9-6 with a 2.61 ERA in all "night" contests this season as well.). In contrast, the contented home side hands the ball to Dominic Leone (3-3, 1.41 ERA), who will only cover one to two innings before making way for the bullpen. With Johnny Cueto on the 10-day injured list due to a right elbow strain and Alex Wood on the COVID-19 injured list after testing positive for the coronavirus, the Giants a short of starting pitchers.

Musgrove and the desperate Padres are the correct call here. All things considered, the visitors should in fact be the favorite in this game

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Oak A's at 8:10 ET.

KC made a pitching change and I've re-posted with new pitcher for KC.

The KC Royals lost 104 games in 2018, 103 in 2019 and then went 26-34 in 2020. The Royals are currently 66-78 and will miss the postseason for the SIXTH straight year, after back-to-back World Series appearances in 2014 and 2015 (won in 2015). As for the A's, they are in a five-team 'scramble' for one of the two AL wild card spots. Toronto, the NY Yankees and Boston are in a virtual three-way tie, while Seattle sits three back and Oakland 3 1/2-games back, after losing THREE in row.

This will likely be a bit of "public" play, but regardless, after three straight losses and with their most consistent starter of late on the mound this evening, I like the Athletics to finally bounce back here with a solid victory. In contrast, the Royals are primed for a letdown after winning FOUR of their last five. Oakland hands the ball to Sean Manaea (9-9, 3.79 ERA), who is off a win on Thursday over the White Sox, giving up one run and striking out nine over seven innings. It was his second straight game with nine strikeouts and Manaea has allowed just three ERs in those last two starts (14 IP / 1.93 ERA).

The home side was set to counter with Mike Minor (8-12, 5.05 ERA), who has admittedly looked much better over the last month, posting a 28/4 KW ratio since the beginning of August. However, after KC won four of his first five starts of 2021, the Royals are a money-burning 6-17 in his last 23 starts! The left-handed Minor should have all sorts of trouble here vs an Oakland team that is 39-17 in its last 56 road games vs a left-handed starter.

However, a PC came through at 2:00 ET and the Royals will turn to Carlos Hernandez (6-1, 3.29). He was was initially scheduled to start Thursday but who has been moved up to start today. He's made 22 appearances, including nine starts. He's got MUCH better numbers than Minor (1.09 ERA in his last three outings) but I'm sticking with my original position.

I say Oakland's three-game slide ends here with Manaea on the mound and the scheduling change definitely won't help the rookie hurler either. Lay the price and expect a solid victory for the A's.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Afternoon Delight is on the TB Rays at 3:07 ET.

The Rays got the job done last night  how they normally do it, by getting great pitching from starters to closers and playing smart baseball overall.

 Toronto went on a wild hitting streak which saw them post 44 runs over a three-game span, so I believe further regression is now in order here as well in the finale of this three-game series. Note that despite Toronto's 15-3 run, the Jays are NINE games back of the Rays and just +$406 vs the moneyline Y-T-D.

Tampa hands the ball to Michael Wacha (3-4, 5.37 ERA), who is 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two career outings against Toronto.

 The Jays counter with Robbie Ray (11-5, 2.69), who is 1-2 with a 2.68 ERA in six career appearances vs. the Rays.

 There is little doubt that Ray has had the much better season but Wacha comes in off a strong outing against Detroit on Friday, allowing one run over six innings. The bottom line is, I think the veteran can carry over that momentum and match the red hot Ray inning for inning tonight.

All good things must come to an end. That's how the old saying goes right? I say Toronto's big win streak is going to start to fade into the rearview mirror now after such a long stretch of extended great play. ALL the pressure is on Toronto, as the Jays are in a virtual three-way tie with the yanks and the Red Sox for the AL's two wild card spots. There will be NO margin of error over these last 19 days of the regular season

Look for Tampa, which owns MLB's third-best moneyline mark of +$1,857 to build off yesterday's solid win, as it once again offers great value in an underdog role on Wednesday night.

Good luck...Larry 

My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Sea Mariners at 10:10 ET.

 I believe Seattle carries that momentum over. Great value on the Mariners to keep things rolling in a positive direction here at home against this wounded Red Sox side (as noted yesterday, a recent breakout of COVID-19 has seen over a dozen players and staff hit the IL).

 Natahan Eovaldi (10-8, 3.57 ERA) takes the mound for the Red Sox, while the Mariners counter with Tyler Anderson (6-9, 4.20 ERA).

 Eovaldi went seven scoreless against the Rays in his last outing and he's been great of late, posting a 2.05 ERA over his last five starts. However, He owns a 4.67 ERA in five career outings vs Seattle.

Anderson gave up four runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Astros on Wednesday. Anderson only has one victory in eight starts for the Mariners but he has posted a 3.83 ERA and amassed 34 strikeouts over 44.2 innings.

 As I noted yesterday, Seattle owns MLB's second-best moneyline record (+$2,986 at $100/unit). Only the Giants are better at +$3,302 (note: San Francisco's 94-50 record is 16 games better than that of Seattle!). I say the momentum that Seattle has created is real. Boston is limping towards the finish line and I expect that trend to continue here. Once again, the "PRICE is Right" on Seattle.

 I love the home side in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the TB Rays at 7:07 ET.

The Toronto Blue Jays were 69-62 after Aug 31 but have gone 12-1 in September, after Monday's 8-1 win over the Ryays in the opener of a three-game series. 89-55 Tampa Bay is still EIGHT games ahead of Toronto in the AL East but Toronto's surge has them atop the wild card standings, albeit by just ONE game over the Yankees and Red Sox (Mariners and A's are also lurking). How does that saying go? All good things must come to an end?

At some point, the Toronto Blue Jays are going to falter and lose a few games and in my opinion, that slide starts here and now.

The Jays have gone 15-2 in their last 17 games, scoring a staggering 52 runs over their last four games alone.

As noted, Tampa Bay still leads the AL East (owns the AL's best record) but it'll be eager to now break Toronto's big run and to avenge yesterday's humbling setback.

I base my picks on many things. I often base my MLB picks on just the starting pitchers, but that's not the case with this particular selection.

I think that these starters are evenly matched. Drew Rasmussen (2-1, 3.25 ERA) has a 65/23 KW ratio over 61 innings so far this season for Tampa.

He gave up one run over five innings in an important victory over Boston in his last outing. He's 2-1 with a 2.73 ERA on the road this year.

Jose Berrios (11-7, 3.52) has won three straight for the Jays. He's been fantastic of late as well, conceding just six runs over his last three starts combined.

As I said, these pitchers are evenly matched, and this selection is not based on either.

Tampa has responded well in this spot for bettors though, going 8-2 (80%) in its last 10 in trying to avenge a five runs or greater road loss to an opponent.

Great value going against the Jays here.

The play is Tampa.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Late-Breaker is on the Sea Mariners at 10:10 ET.

80-63 Toronto and 81-64 Boston currently own the two AL wild card spots but the 79-64 Yankees are just ONE game back, while Seattle and Oakland (both 77-66) are two games back of New York and THREE back of Toronto and Boston. That's FIVE teams vying for two playoff berths. The Red Sox and Mariners open a VERY important three-game series tonight in Seattle.

The Red Sox have remained in the race, despite having to deal with a recent breakout of COVID-19 which has seen over a dozen players and staff hit the IL. Boston comes to town with zero momentum, losing two of three at the White Sox over the weekend, giving them FIVE losses in their last seven games. Seattle had won SEVEN of nine but then dropped back-to-back home games to the sad-sack D'backs Saturday and Sunday at home. "No one expected us to even be in this spot, regardless. We've got nothing to lose," Seattle shortstop J.P. Crawford remarked after Sunday's tight 5-4 loss to Arizona.

Eduardo Rodriguez (11-8, 5.15 ERA) gets the nod for the Red Sox, while the Mariners counter with rookie right-hander Logan Gilbert (5-5, 5.10 ERA). Rodriguez has had success against the Mariners in the past, but I say that was THEN, and this is NOW. Boston is just 5-12 in its last 17 road games against teams with winning records and Seattle is 11-5 in its last 16 as a home underdog.

More notably, Seattle owns MLB's second-best moneyline record (+$2,872 at $100/unit), as only the Giants are better at +$3,204 (note: San Francisco's 93-50 record is 16 games better than that of Seattle!). The "PRICE is Right" on Seattle.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NL Game of the Month is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET.

This is a big game and a big series for each playoff-hopeful club. In my opinion, the home-field advantage can't be overlooked as a very real deciding factor though.

The Cardinals are 73-69, just ONE game back of the NL's No. 2 wild card spot (SD and Cincy are tied), while the 72-72 Mets are TWO games back of the Cards, with just THREE weeks to go.

St. Louis turns to Adam Wainwright (15-7, 2.98 ERA), while New York counters with Rich Hill (6-6, 3.82 ERA).

Hill will be especially motivated here, as he remains winless since coming over to the Mets, despite pitching well. Last Wednesday he gave up one run over six innings in a loss to the Marlins. In nine games, eight starts for the Mets he's posted a 3.71 ERA and gone 0-2 (Mets are 3-5 in his starts). As for Wainwright, he lost his first game after the All Star break to leave him 7-6 in 18 starts (team was 9-9), despite a respectable 3.71 ERA. However, he's 'turned back the clock' since that time, going 8-1 with a sub-2.00 ERA in his last 10 starts (Cards are 9-1).

Wainwright is 6-6 with a 4.95 ERA in 15 regular-season games against the Mets, while Hill is 4-1 with a 4.38 ERA in nine career games against the Cardinals.

Stepping in front of Wainwright is NOT easy to do but St. Louis though is just 2-8 in its last 10 after a shutout home victory over an opponent (2-0 win yesterday over the Reds), and I expect that trend to continue here.

I like the Mets to strike first in this important National League series on Monday night.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Reds at 2:15 ET.

The Reds have been trading wins and losses over their last five games and after yesterday's 6-4 loss here in St. Louis, I expect this pattern to continue.

St. Louis has another tough series against the Mets up in New York starting tomorrow.

The home side hands the ball to the volatile JA Happ (8-8, 6.20 ERA), who gave up four runs off seven hits over five innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Tuesday.

Happ is in terrible form, as he's been shelled for 11 earned runs over his last two outings spanning just six frames of work.

The Reds saw Happ on September 1st and they lit him up for seven runs, so I am expecting another "long day" for the veteran here.

The Reds definitely have the advantage in this starting pitching matchup as they see Sonny Gray (7-6, 3.88) toe the rubber. He most recently allowed three runs and struck out eight over five innings in a no-decision to the Cubs on Monday.

Over his last eight starts Gray has been "on point," posting a 2.89 ERA and sparkling 0.92 WHIP (Res are 6-2 in those starts).

He's been at his best on the road as well, going 3-4 with a 4.65 ERA at home but 4-2 with a 3.05 ERA on the road.

Look for Gray to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart and lay the reasonable price on Cincinnati.

Good luck...Larry

Larry's 10* 'Battle 4 New York' is on the NY Yankees at 7:40 ET.

The NY Yankees won 13 straight from August 14 through August 27 to reach 76-52. However, they have collapsed in the two weeks since, dropping 11 of their last 13. Their 10-3 loss last night to the Mets marked the team's SEVENTH straight loss. As for the Mets, they were 55-46 through July 28 but then lost 21 of 28 to fall to 62-67. That said, the Mets have 'righted the ship, winning NINE of 13 after last night to get back to .500 (71-71).

The Yanks currently still own the No. 2 wild card spot but the Blue Jays are just a half-game back with Seattle and Oakland just one game back. The Jays keep winning and the Yankees keep losing. It's going to be a dog-fight until the end for the wild card spots in the American League this season. I like New York to dig deep and to finally get off the schneid with a victory in Game 2 of this "Subway Series." The visitors hand the ball to Corey Kluber (4-3, 3.69 ERA), who gave up two runs with five strikeouts over four innings in a no-decision to Baltimore last weekend. It was his second start back from injury. He has a 1.28 WHIP and 66/28 KW ratio.

The Mets counter with Taijuan Walker (7-9, 4.15 ERA), who enters in terrible form, most recently allowing six runs over 4.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Nationals on Sunday. Walker's fantastic start to the 2021 campaign is now fully in the rear-view mirror, as he's gone 0-6 over his last eight starts (Mets are 1-7).

Finally, note that New York is a sharp 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it conceded 10 or more runs in. This is a great price on a desperate team.

ENOUGH is ENOUGH! The play is the Yankees. 

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL West) is on the SD Padres at 10:10 ET.

The stage is set for a minor upset in this National League West contest on Friday night.

I like San Diego to dig deep and 'steal' the opener of this series at Chavez Ravine.

This isn't about the starting pitchers. Joe Musgrove is 10-8 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.01 WHIP for the Padres, while Jose Urias is 16-3 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.05 WHIP for the Dodgers. Sure, Urias has that flashy 16-3 record but Musgrove has similar numbers across the board.

For me, this one comes down to the recent form of each team. These teams are suddenly moving in opposite directions and I expect that trend to continue. At least for one more game anyways.

The Padres have won three of their last four, but they can ill afford to take the foot off the gas with just a one-game lead in the wild card race.

The Dodgers enter having lost two straight to the Cardinals, another team in a dog fight for a wildcard spot. LA is now second in the NL West behind the surprising Giants.

The Dodgers are a playoff 'lock,' while the Padres are in a life-and-death struggle for that final wild card spot. the more desperate team. The value swings to this undervalued underdog.

The play is on the Padres.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Cin Reds at 8:15 ET.

The Reds will be desperate here as they've lost EIGHT of their 11 games, having now fallen one game back of the Padres for the final NL wild card spot.

Cincinnati is coming off a 10-inning loss to the Cubs; "Obviously a tough, tough loss," Reds manager David Bell remarked after. "But we have a lot left ahead of us, and we put it behind us and we move forward. We just have to keep playing."

The Cards split their most recent four-game series with the Dodgers and they sit three games back of San Diego in the race.

The Reds hand the ball to Tyler Mahle (11-5, 3.76 ERA), who is 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA in three starts against St. Louis this year (Reds are 3-0). He gave up four runs over five innings in a win over the Tigers in his last outing.

The home side counters with the volatile Jon Lester (5-6, 4.89), who is 2-1 with a 4.62 ERA in seven starts (Cards are 4-3) since coming over from Washington.

Lester's actually pitched well of late, and he's had success against the Reds in the past, but I still like Mahle in this spot.

The Reds are also 7-2 in their last nine off a loss and playing with a day's rest.

Look for Cincinnati to finally get back into the winner's circle tonight.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Yankees at 7:05 ET.

I had a play on New York last night, and that came up short  did have the Jays on Monday). I say that the Jays big run finally ends here though, as I look for the Yankees to dig deep and find a way to avoid the "DREADED" four-game sweep at home to their surging rival.

The Jays are right back in the wildcard conversation now after SEVEN straight wins, but as the old saying goes, all good things must come to an end.

New York will be hungry for sure to get back on track here, as the Yankees own the No. 2 wild card spot (Jays are 1 1/2-games back).

The Jays hand the ball to Jose Berrios (2-2, 3.73 ERA), who gave up three runs off four hits and struck out seven over six innings in a big win over Oakland last weekend. He had an inconsistent August, and while he's looked better of late, I just feel that he's in the wrong place at the wrong time today.

The home side counters with Nestor Cortes (2-2, 2.67) who gave up one run with seven strikeouts over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision to the Orioles on Friday.

Over his last 24 innings of work, he's conceded seven runs. Over 67.1 innings of work overall this season he owns a respectable 71/21 KW ratio

Finally, note, the Yanks are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge back-to-back losses to an opponent.

I think we're getting great value on the hungry home side.

The play is New York.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:10 ET.

Boston's losing valuable ground in the American League Wild card race, as it's now lost three in a row.

That includes two high-scoring losses here to AL East-leading Tampa at home to open this series.

The Rays came from behind to win 11-10 in 10 innings in the first one, before then holding on for a 12-7 victory yesterday.

Tampa continues to find ways to win, despite dealing with several key injuries to its lineup.

Boston though is 7-2 in its last nine after three or more straight losses in a row. It's also 8-3 in its last 11 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it allowed ten or more runs in.

Tampa hands the ball to Shane McClanahan (9-5, 3.76 ERA), who is off a loss to these very Red Sox on Thursday, allowing four runs off eight hits over five innings. The rookie's been great, but he draws a difficult assignment here, in a difficult road venue as well.

Boston counters with Nathan Eovaldi (10-8, 3.73), who allowed three runs off six hits with nine strikeouts over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision to the Indians on Friday.

Over 156.2 frames of work this season, Eovaldi now owns a sharp 163/28 KW ratio and he's a highly respectable 6-3 with a 3.09 ERA at home this season.

Enough is enough for Boston. The value has now finally swung the other way in this series.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Year (AL East) is on the NY Yankees at 7:05 ET.

 And that includes the first two games of this series. Toronto is desperate for victories as well as it tries to play catch up against the Red Sox, Yankees, and A's and it enters having won nine of its last 10, including six in a row.

 A letdown is now imminent though in my opinion for the visiting side after such a long stretch of great play.

 Toronto hands the ball to Alek Manoah (5-2, 3.63 ERA), who has been fantastic overall this season for Toronto, but who enters off a troublesome start against the A's last Friday, allowing six runs off five hits over five innings, fortunate to escape with a no-decision.

 After a great start, is Manoah now starting to finally regress a little? It definitely wouldn't surprise me if it continued. Especially considering the circumstances, the opponent, and the venue.

 The home side counters with Luis Gil (1-0, 0.00), who is in the rotation out of necessity, but who may earn a permanent spot if he continues to throw so well.

 Over three starts Gil has allowed zero runs (15.2 innings), while also posting an 18/7 KW ratio.

 Despite the slide, New York is still 23-9 in its last 32 vs. right-handed starters.

 The Jays on the other hand are just 2-5 in their last seven as a road underdog.

I think Toronto's streak ends here. Great value on the revenge-minded home side.

 The play is New York.

 Good luck...Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cle Indians at 6:10 ET.

Cleveland won't be going down without a fight this year. It's out to break a two-game slide (has lost four of its last five).

That includes the first two of this home series against the lowly Twins, who are in full rebuild mode.

Cleveland is interestingly 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge two straight home losses to an opponent.

This is a starting pitching matchup that favors the home side  as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Joe Ryan (0-1, 5.40 ERA), who gave up three runs over five innings in a loss in his MLB debut against the Cubs on Wednesday. He was decent in the minors, but there's no question that he draws another tough opponent and difficult venue in his second big league start.

The home side counters with Triston McKenzie (4-5, 4.62), who has quietly been getting better and better with each start.

He most recently earned a win over Kansas City on Thursday, allowing one run off two hits with six strikeouts over six innings.

McKenzie has now posted four straight quality outings, posting a 1.33 ERA in that span.

I say Minnesota leaves town content having already secured a series victory.

This line could/should in fact be much larger in my opinion. Great value today on revenge-minded Cleveland.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MLB Game of the Week is on the Mil Brewers at 7:40 ET.

Off a humbling 12-0 loss here yesterday, I like Milwaukee to dig deep and answer back here on Tuesday.

Philadelphia has been playing better of late, as it's won eight of its last ten, including two in a row. However, I don't trust Aaron Nola on the road.

 Nola (7-7, 4.54 ERA) most recently was rocked for six runs off six hits with two walks over four innings in what turned out to be a fortunate no-decision to the Nationals.

 It was his third time in his last five starts that he's failed to complete at least five frames. And unfortunately as eluded to above, while Nola is a respectable 4-3 with a 3.34 ERA at home he's a poor 3-4 with a 6.01 ERA on the road.

 The home side counters with Eric Lauer (4-5, 3.43), who has likely pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate this season. He is coming off a decent outing against the Giants, allowing one run off three hits with one walk and four strikeouts over seven innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision for him.

 He is 1-2 over his last eight outings, despite posting a sharp 2.54 ERA.

The Brewers have done well in this spot for bettors as well, going 8-2 in their last ten in trying to revenge a shutout home loss against an opponent.

 And yesterday's setback was an absolute beatdown!

 Look for the focused Brewers to get back on track with a convincing victory of their own on Wednesday night.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Division Dominator (AL East) is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:10 ET.

Boston let a big lead slip away late to the Rays yesterday, and it would eventually lose 11-10 in extra innings.

With that frustrating loss fresh on the front of their collective minds, and with what I feel to be the superior starter on the hill for them, I think the Red Sox will answer back here on Tuesday night.

 The visitors hand the ball to Drew Rasmussen (1-1, 3.38 ERA), who most recently faced the Red Sox last Wednesday, giving up one run over four innings in what turned out to be a no-decision.

Rasmussen has been good since being moved from the bullpen out of necessity in mid-August, but the sample size is still too small in my opinion to draw any firm conclusions, and there's no question he draws a tough assignment today in this difficult road venue.

The home side counters with Eduardo Rodriguez (11-7, 4.88), who is coming off a win over the Rays on Thursday, posting six strikeouts over seven scoreless innings.

Boston is 7-1 in its last eight in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it conceded ten or more runs. I say this strong trend continues, as I look for Rodriguez to continue his progression here in this favorable matchup. Note: Boston is 17-9 in "E-Rod's" starts in 2021.

Boston, at basically pick'em, is the play. 

Good luck...Larry

My 7* MLB Tuesday Opener is on the Cle Indians at 6:10 ET.

Cleveland's lost three of its last four, including a 5-2 setback here in the opener of this series (I had a 10* play on the "under" in that one, congrats to any that joined!)

And after losing four straight, the Twins are once again poised for a letdown here after back-to-back victories.

The visitors hand the ball to John Gant (4-9, 3.98 ERA), who gave up two earned runs off three hits over five innings in a loss to the Cubs on Tuesday. Over 25 innings of work with the Twins, Gant now owns a poor 6.00 ERA.

 He'll be opposed by Aaron Civale (10-2, 3.32), who returns from a rehab stint in the minors, allowing one earned run over three starts while striking out 12 batters. He reached 80 pitches in his last outing, so he's been given the green light to return here and there's no reason not to think he can't carry over his recent form. The Indians are 12-3 in his 15 starts in 2021 (ML record of plus-$818 is 7th-best). 

 I don't trust Gant on the road against this revenge-minded home side. Civale is the correct call.

 All things considered, "the PRICE is Right!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* 1st Pitch is on the Tor Blue Jays at 1:05 ET.

This is a big series. More so for Toronto. It could be a case of too little too late, but Toronto isn't going down without a fight in its pursuit of a wild card spot.

The Jays have rebounded and are playing well now, as they've won four in a row and seven of their last eight. That includes a crucial sweep of the A's at home over the weekend.

Now they have a chance to catch the team that's sitting right ahead of them with another big effort to open up the week.

The Yanks are now trending in the other direction, as they've lost SIX of their last eight, after winning 13 in a row.

That includes losing two straight at home to Baltimore here, which culminated in Sunday's disappointing 8-7 setback.

The recent form of these two line-ups plays a big part in my decision tonight.

I also like the way this one sets up for Jays' starter Hyun-Jin Ryu (12-8, 3.92 ERA), who gave up three runs over six innings in a loss to the Orioles on Tuesday. Ryu wasn't great in August, but he's been solid on the road all season, entering with a 6-4, 3.37 ERA record away from friendly confines.

The home side counters with Jameson Taillon (8-5, 4.44), who gave up six runs over four innings in a loss to the Angels on Tuesday.

Taillon has struggled lately as well, failing to record a quality outing in four straight starts.

Toronto's momentum carries over for at least one more game. Great value here on Ryu and the desperate visiting side.

 The play is the Blue Jays.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* IL Game of the Month is on the Sea Mariners at 4:10 ET.

Seattle has won four in a row, including the first two in this series. I say the M's keep the foot on the gas here in this interleague series finale with their ace on the mound.

Arizona has nothing to play for. Playing the role of spoiler can be fun and a motivational reason to play at the end of the season, but less so in Interleague action.

The Mariners will feel confident handing the ball to Chris Flexen (11-5, 3.52 ERA), who is off a no-decision to the Astros on Monday, allowing two runs off eight hits and two walks with four strikeouts over six innings.

It was an August to remember for Flexen, who took to the hill six times and went who went 2-0 with a 2.68 ERA spanning 17 frames (note that he's 3-0 with a 2.98 ERA in all "day" games as well.)

Arizona counters with Tyler Gilbert (1-2, 2.93) who was shelled for five runs off eight hits over five innings in a loss to the Padres in his last outing.

Gilbert threw a no-hitter in his first MLB start, but since then he's been rocked for nine runs over his last 15 outings.

I say this steady slide down the proverbial toilet continues here against this playoff hopeful and surging Mariners side.

All things considered, I think we're getting fantastic value on the better team and starting pitcher.

Need more convincing? Seattle owns MLB's No. 1 moneyline mark at plus-$2,969 (at $100/game) and Flexen is MLB's top-money-earner among starters at 17-8, plus-$1,246! The play is Seattle.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the SD Padres at 8:40 ET.

San Diego needs to start stringing some wins together. It's out to stop a two-game slide, including a 6-3 loss here in the opener of this series with Houston.

I had the Astros in that one last night. Congrats to any who tailed me.

But here I think the value has swung the other way on the revenge-minded and hungry home side.

The visitors hand the ball to Framber Valdez (9-4, 2.94 ERA), who gave up two runs over seven innings in a win over the lowly Rangers on Saturday. It's hard to find too many faults with Valdez, he's been solid both at home and on the road.

But I like Joe Musgrove (9-8, 2.85) at home in this one. Musgrove is coming off another fantastic performance, this time allowing three hits with nine strikeouts over nine shutout innings in a win over the Angels on Friday. Over 148.1 innings of work this year, Musgrove owns a great 169/39 K/W.

Musgrove has allowed just two earned runs over his last three home starts and I expect him to once again be on top of his game.

The play is San Diego.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL Central) is on the Mil Brewers at 7:10 ET.

Off back-to-back losses, including a humbling 15-4 setback here to the Cardinals in the opener of this current series, I like the Brewers to bounce back on Saturday.

The Cardinals have been playing better of late, but I still think this is a matchup that favors the home side. And the price is nice too.

St. Louis hands the ball to Kwang-Hyun Kim (6-6, 3.23 ERA), who is off a no-decision to the Pirates on Sunday, allowing one run over four innings. He's thrown over five innings just twice over his last six appearances though.

The home side counters with Adrian Houser (7-6, 3.69), who comes in off an outing to forget, allowing five runs over five innings in a loss to the Twins on Saturday.

It was likely his worst start of the season (previous to that he'd conceded just one earned run over 16.2 innings.)

 Houser though has been at his best at home, posting a 4.41 ERA on the road, and a 2.99 ERA in friendly confines.

The Cards have struggled in this spot for bettors as well recently, as they're 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a starter with a WHIP higher than 1.30, and just 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.

I like the revenge-minded home side to come in focused.

Lay the price, the play is Milwaukee.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Hou Astros at 10:10 ET.

The San Diego Padres play in the NL West and after losing 14 of their last 19 games find themselves a whopping 13 1/2-games behind the SF Giants and LA Dodgers, who are tied atop the division at 85-49. The Houston Astros won 100-plus games from 2017 through 2019, making it to two World Series (won in 2017). However, the Astros were just 29-31 in 2020 but made the expanded postseason field. Houston then shocked all by making it all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS, missing a THIRD World Series appearance in four seasons by ONE game. It's no surprise the 68-55 Astros lead the AL West here in 2021 but they arrived in San Diego coming off back-to-back shutout losses against the Seattle Mariners while seeing their division lead fall to 4 1/2 games over Oakland.

The starting pitchers for Friday are Jose Urquidy (6-3, 3.38 ERA) for Houston and Jake Arrieta (5-12, 7.13 ERA). Urquidy has missed the last two months due to a shoulder injury and this marks his first major league outing since June 29. He figures to be on a pitch count but I agree with Astros manager Dusty Baker who said, "We missed Urquidy, he's one of the main guys on our pitching staff and it's great to have him back." As for Arrieta, it's NOT 2015, when he won the Cy Young in the NL for the Cubs in going 22-6 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. He's been a sub-.500 pitcher since 2018. The Padres took a flier on Arrieta after he was released by the Chicago Cubs in mid-August. This marks the second start for his new team and the first didn't go well, as he allowed five ERs over 3.1 innings in a 7-5 loss to the Colorado Rockies on Aug 18. He exited that game with a mild left hamstring strain and is now deemed ready to return.

A huge part of San Diego's fall from being 17 games over .500 on Aug 10 to 81-73 (eight games over .500) is suspect starting pitching. Right now, Arrieta is a 'poster boy' for a suspect starting pitcher. Arrieta should provide the Houston bats a PERFECT opportunity to 'wake up,' coming off back-to-back shutouts. BETTER UP!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Division Dominator (NL Central) is on the Chi Cubs at 8:05 ET.

Off back-to-back 3-1 and 3-0 wins at Minnesota, I like the Cubs to keep the positive momentum rolling here. The Cubs have now won three of their last four.

 Pittsburgh has lost four of its last five, including two in a row.

The Pirates hand the ball to Mitch Keller (4-10, 6.75 ERA), who was rocked for seven runs off six hits over five innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Cardinals on Thursday.

He's been better at home than on the road, but I absolutely do not trust the one-year pro here in this spot (he's still just 2-3 with a 5.51 ERA on the road.)

The home side counters with Keegan Thompson (3-3, 3.09), who is coming off an outing to forget, allowing five runs over two innings in a no-decision against the White Sox on Friday.

 It was easily his worst start of the season. I say it's way too early to hit the panic button. Note that he still owns a sharp 45/26 KW over 46.2 frames of work.

The clincher? While Thompson is 0-2 with a 5.09 ERA on the road, he's 3-1 with a 1.44 ERA at home.

 This line could/should in fact be a lot larger in my opinion. The value is on Chicago at home over the Pirates on Thursday night.

Good luck...Larry

My 7* Las Vegas Insider is on the SF Giants at 9:45 ET.

As the season winds down, the Giants are starting to stumble, while the Dodgers continue to win.

San Francisco will now be eager and focussed to end a three-game slide, and to avoid the rare home sweep.

The Brewers are in a race themselves, but everything points to a classic letdown for the visiting side in my opinion.

Milwaukee hands the ball to Brett Anderson (4-8, 4.27 ERA), who has been on the ten-day IL due to a hip issue. He hasn't missed a start and has been cleared to go. Note, while he's 1-3 with a 3.50 ERA at home, he's 3-5 with a 5.00 ERA on the road though.

The Giants counter with Kevin Gausman (12-5, 2.49), who gave up two run off six hits and struck out two over six innings, while walking none in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision to the Braves on Friday. Over 152 innings, he owns a 176/46 K/W.

Gausman actually has better road numbers than home this year, but overall he's been fantastic wherever he's thrown.

And in my opinion, this price does not properly reflect the talent discrepancy between these starting pitchers.

I'm laying the price on the revenge-minded home side.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:10 ET.

I like Boston to bounce back here after three straight losses, including the first two games of this series.

The hungry visiting side hands the ball to ace Chris Sale (3-0, 2.35 ERA), who gave up two runs and struck out eight over six innings in a win over the Twins last week. To go along with his perfect record and shiny ERA, Sale also owns an elite 1.04 WHIP and 21/3 K/W over 15.1 innings of work.

Tampa counters with Drew Rasmussen (1-1, 3.46 ERA), who is off a no-decision to the Phillies on Tuesday, allowing one run and striking out one over five innings. 

Hard to get a firm read on the rookie, as the sample size is just too small. One think for sure, his 5.5 K/9 isn't turning any heads.

One of these teams has overperformed considering all of the injuries it's gone through. The other is coming off three straight losses and has one of the best starting pitchers in the World on the mound tonight

All things considered, I believe this line could/should in fact be much larger.

The play is Boston.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Getaway Day Game of the Week is on the Col Rockies at 2:05 ET.

Colorado has lost the first two games of this series, but I expect it to bounce back in the finale with what I feel to be the superior starting pitcher on the hill for it.

The Rockies hand the ball to Kyle Freeland (5-6, 4.17 ERA), who is coming off a great win over the Dodgers on Friday, allowing two runs and no walks while striking out seven over six innings in the victory. 

Freeland was a mess to start the season, posting a 9.58 ERA over his first five starts. He's lowered it to 4.17 after Friday's super result and I say there's no reason not to think that the veteran can keep the progression rolling strong here in this favorable matchup. After all, the Rockies have won his last SEVEN starts.

The home side counters with Kohei Arihara (2-3, 6.59), who has been activated off the IL by the Rangers to make his first start since early May. 

The bottom line here is, I don't truest Arihara whatsoever, while Freeland has proven that he's turned the corner with his form many weeks ago.

All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value."

The play is Colorado.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Grand Slam is on the Atl Braves at 10:10 ET.

The Braves are in desperate need of a victory. They've been trading wins and losses over their last five games. 

They're off a 5-3 loss here last night in this series opener and while it won't be easy, I do think they'll bounce back here and deliver the goods on Tuesday night.

Walker Buehler (13-2, 2.02 ERA) has been superb for the Dodgers. He has to be considered for the NL Cy Young award at this point. 

Buehler dominated the Braves in last year's NLCS, holding them to one run over 11 innings. 

Buehler is fantastic, but I expect the Braves' Charlie Morton (12-5, 3.60) to match his counterpart's effort inning for inning tonight.

And in a scenario like that, I believe that the value swings to the hungry underdog.

Morton gave up four runs over four innings to the Yanks in his last outing, but previous to that he'd posted a tiny 2.63 ERA over 48 innings of work. 

Look for Atlanta to rally here. It's interesting to note that the Braves are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge a two runs or greater road loss to an opponent.

I believe the hungrier, revenge-minded visiting side is the correct call here.

Play on Atlanta.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* play is on the Chi Cubs at 8:10 ET.

Neither team will be in the playoffs.

I think that the home side is vastly over-priced here though, which swings the value to the visiting side.

The Cubs lost two of three at the White Sox most recently, while Minnesota held on for a 3-2 victory here at home against the Tigers in a one-game make-up scenario.

Chicago hands the ball to Zach Davies (6-10, 5.00 ERA), who gave up two runs over five innings in the first game of a double-header against the Rockies last week. 

Admittedly, Davies hasn't been at his best of late. His last start though was a big step in the right direction. 

John Gant (4-8, 4.00) makes his third start for the Twins since coming over from St. Louis. 

Minnesota's relievers though rank bottom seven in ERA, hits allowed, runs allowed, home runs allowed and batting average. 

Chicago isn't much better, but I like the way this one sets up for Davies and I think the veteran can build off his last performance.

Finally, note that the Cubs are 7-2 in their last nine in playing a home team with a winning percentage of .400 or less.

The play is Chicago.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "Signature" 37-Club Play is on the SF Giants at 9:45 ET.

The Giants are a rare underdog at home here, and I am ready to take advantage.

Johnny Cueto (7-6, 3.73 ERA), gets the nod for the home side. San Francisco has the best overall record at 84-46, the best home record at 42-19 and No. 1 overall ML record at +$2920. 

Note that this is just the second career start for Corbin Burnes (8-4, 2.30) vs SFG, while Cueto's made 23 career starts vs Mil (11-4, 3.05 ERA and teams are 17-6 in those outings.)

Burnes has been great, but he's coming off a really mediocre outing against the Reds on Tuesday, allowing four runs off seven hits and three walks over five innings. Was that a sign of things to come?

Cueto has been much better at home than on the road (6-3, 3.10, compared to 1-3, 4.49) and I expect him to at the very least, match his counterpart inning for inning.

Finally, note that the Giants are 7-1 in their last eight as a home dog in the +115 to +135 range.

Good value here on the undervalued home side. The play is San Francisco.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Division Dominator (AL East) is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:10 ET.

The Rays continue to defy the odds, play sound and logical baseball and simply find ways to win on an almost nightly basis.

This is a starting pitching matchup that favors the visiting side though, and I believe it'll find a way to take advantage.

Nick Pivetta has faced Tampa Bay three times this year (16.1 IP / 3 ERs / 1.65 ERA). Pivetta (9-6, 4.57), gave up four runs with five strikeouts over five innings in a no-decision to the Twins in his last outing. He's been at his best on the road though, going 5-4 with a 3.59 ERA.

The home side counters with Luis Patino (3-3, 4.53), who has been solid in his rookie year. Patino has been good at home, but I still think it's significant to note that he's just 1-3 with a ballooned 6.19 ERA in all night games.

The Rays have a comfortable lead, while the Red Sox are fighting tooth and nail for a Wildcard spot. I say that Pivetta is the correct call here in a contest what will for sure have a "playoff like" atmosphere around it.

The play is Boston.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the NY Yankees at 7:08 ET.

After winning 13 in a row, the Yanks finally fell 3-2 in Oakland last night. With what I believe to be the superior starting pitcher on the hill in the night-cap finale on Sunday, I look for New York to bounce back comfortably.

The A's can't afford to lose any ground, but they've been consistently inconsistent over the last three weeks. Expect this scuffling trend to continue tonight.

The Yankees hand the ball to Jordan Montgomery (5-5, 3.69 ERA), who allowed one run over five innings in a victory over the Braves on Monday.

Montgomery enters this one on top form, as he's now conceded just five runs over his last 25.1 innings of work, posting a tiny 1.78 ERA in that span.

Oakland counters with Paul Blackburn (0-1, 4.09), who gave up two runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Mariners on Monday.

I definitely like Montgomery in this starting pitching matchup. Also, note that the Yankees are 13-3 in their last 16 on the road still.

This is just Blackburn's third MLB appearance this season, so I say he's in well over his head today.

Lay the price, the play is New York.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Grand Slam is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET.

The Braves came from behind to squeak out a tight 6-5 win here last night the Giants, and I think they'll once again find a way to do that here on Saturday as well.

San Francisco hands the ball to Logan Webb (7-3, 2.84 ERA), who gave up one run over six innings in a win over the A's on Sunday. 

Webb has been great. It's difficult to say too many negative things about him. It's interesting to note though, while he's 5-0 with a 1.72 ERA at home, he's a much more pedestrian 2-3 with 4.08 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Huascar Ynoa (4-3, 2.89), who gave up three runs off four this over six innings while also striking out nine in an unfortunate loss to the Yanks last weekend. 

Over his last 11.2 innings of work, Ynoa owns a sharp 13/2 K/W.

Ynoa has also been at his best when throwing at home, as he's 1-2 with a 3.78 ERA away from friendly confines, but 3-1 with a 2.16 ERA in Atlanta this season.

The Braves have considerable ground to make up. This one means a lot more to the home side.

I'm banking on ATL finding a way to deliver once it's all said and done.

Good luck...Larry

My 7* Weekend Wipeout is on the Mil Brewers at 7:10 ET.

The Brewers have now lost two in a row after yesterday's 2-0 series opening loss here yesterday.

I like Milwaukee to bounce back on Saturday though in what I feel is a significant starting pitching mismatch working in its favor. 

The Brewers hand the ball to Adrian Houser (7-5, 3.44 ERA), who gave up one run over four innings in a win over the Nationals on Sunday. Over his last four outings Houser has now conceded one earned run, which translates into a 0.54 ERA. 

The home side counters with the volatile Charlie Barnes (0-3, 6.56), who was shelled for seven runs off eight hits over five innings in a loss to the Yankees on Friday.

Barnes now owns a poor 11/10 K/W over his first 23.1 innings of work, and I believe he'll have his hands full here with his revenge-minded Brewers side.

As note, Milwaukee is 7-1 in its last eight in trying to avenge a road loss against an opponent in which it was held scoreless.

Get down as fast as you can on this one, as I anticipate this line to continue to move up until first pitch.

The play is Milwaukee.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Oak A's at 9:40 ET.

The Yankees keep winning.

The A's keep losing ground.

Oakland made it close, but it was "no cigar" in the end for the home side in yesterday's series opener, as the A's fell 6-5 to the "Evil Empire." 

Streaks, both winning and losing, don't last forever. I say today is the day that the Yanks take a mental step back.

New York hands the ball to Gerrit Cole (12-6, 2.92 ERA), who went six scoreless against the Twins in his last outing. 

Overall, Cole has been sharp this season. I have a difficult time finding anything negative to say about him, so I've decided I won't bother trying. The bottom line is, I simply feel that Cole (and the Yanks), are now finally in the wrong spot at the wrong time.

The home side counters with Sean Manaea (8-8, 3.77), who gave up two runs and struck out three over five innings in a no-decision to the league-leading Giants in his last outing. 

It's been a poor August for Manaea, but a decent season overall. He'll look to build off his last effort, note that he's 4-3 with a 3.61 ERA at home this year.

I say the Yanks aren't as good as their current win streak would indicate, while the A's are much better than their current scuffling slide shows as well.

I look for the hungry home side to dig deep and find a way to deliver in this important contest on Friday night.

The play is Oakland.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Grand Slam is on the Cin Reds at 7:10 ET.

The Reds are very much in the hunt for the second Wildcard spot. Here's a favorable matchup which I think they can take advantage of. In this first game anyways.

The visiting side hands the ball to Wade Miley (10-4, 2.88 ERA), while the home side counters with rookie Zach Thompson (2-5, 2.97).

Cincinnati has won five of its last seven games. Miley is 2-2 with a 1.86 ERA in six career starts against Miami. 

The Reds have also gone a sharp 15-8 in all of Miley's starts this season. And at this time of year, his veteran knowledge is invaluable. 

The Marlins on the other hand have lost seven of Thompson's last eight starts. His ERA has been steadily climbing over the last three months. 

Miami will also be without center fielder Lewis Brinson tonight, who left yesterday's 7-5 win over the Nationals with a sprained left thumb. 

It's a perfect storm of factors working in favor of Miley and the Reds today. The price is great in my opinion considering all of the above situational and trend based stats working in favor of the visiting tonight.

Lay the price, the play is the Reds.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker's Error "Best of the Best" is on the Oak A's at 9:40 ET.

The storyline heading into this one is that the Yanks are on fire. They've won 11 straight.

Can anyone say "letdown" spot?

New York has admittedly looked great since the All-Star break, but a late night West coast road game here against this now desperate A's team is not what the doctor ordered for the Yankees to keep the good times rolling in my opinion.

For argument's sake, I think these starting pitchers are completely even. Jameson Taillon (8-4, 3.94 ERA) has been superb ever since he came over to New York.

And James Kaprielian (7-4, 3.25) has been a consistent bright spot for Oakland all season long.

It would not be hard to write a convincing argument for either of these starters to step up here and dominate.

This pick is a situational one for me. I think the desperate home side (which is 7-2 in its last nine home games as a home underdog in the +101 to +110 range) is the correct call.

All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value."

The play is Oakland.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the SF Giants at 7:10 ET.

San Francisco owns the best record in the league. It's on a mission to finish ahead of the Dodgers it appears, who also just keep on winning.

The Giants have won seven of their last ten, including four in a row. That includes yesterday's series opening victory by a score of 3-2. 

Of course, at some point San Francisco will have a bit of a letdown, but I don't think that'll be today in this favorable starting pitching matchup.

The visitors hands the ball to Alex Wood (10-4, 4.11 ERA), who is off a loss to the A's on Friday, allowing two runs over five innings. He struck out nine. Wood hasn't been at his best over the last month, but he'll look to turn things around againts the soft-hitting Mets on the road, a place where he's 3-2 with a 4.29 ERA in.

The home side counters with the volatile Carlos Carrasco (0-2, 8.82), who has given up at least three runs in three straight games. 

Unfortunately, a date at home is not what the doctor ordered for Carrasco here to get back on track, as he's 0-1 with a ballooned 14.14 ERA in friendly confines.

Get down on this one as quickly as you can, as the price is sure to creep higher and higher before this one starts. And for good reason!

The play is San Francisco.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Getaway Day Game of the Week is on the Chi White Sox at 3:07 ET.

Both teams need victories. Toronto won the opener of this four-game series by a score of 2-1. Chicago then took the second game by a score of 5-2.

The Jays then rallied and held on for a 3-1 victory last night.

These teams have been trading wins throughout this series and I expect that trend to continue here.

The White Sox hand the ball to Carlos Rodon (9-5, 2.38 ERA), who is off the ten-day IL and who threw a bullpen session earlier in the week. 

Rodon has to be feeling confident here, as he's 6-2 with a 2.21 ERA away from friendly confines this season.

The home side counters with Hyun Jin Ryu (12-6, 3.54), who owns a 111/29 K/W over 140 innings of work this season. He's off a dominant win over the Tigers on Saturday, holding them scoreless over seven.

These starters are a "wash" in my opinion. And in a scenario like that, I feel that the value swings to the undervalued underdog.

Also note that the White Sox are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which they were held to one or less runs.

Look for Chicago to get back into the win column after yesterday's loss.

Good luck...Larry