My 10* ALDS ‘GOY’ is on the NY Yankees at 8:05 ET.

The Boston Red Sox pounded out 18 hits in routing the Yankees 16-1 in Game 3 of this ALDS. Boston's Brock Holt hit for the first cycle in postseason history (five RBI), as the Red Sox handed the Yankees their worst postseason margin of defeat in the franchise's storied history. Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora saw his decisions work out perfectly. Cora opted to insert Brock Holt into the lineup at second base and started Nathan Eovaldi, who gave Boston seven innings and allowed just one run. Meanwhile, New York's Aaron Boone waited too long to get Luis Severino out of the game. The team's ace allowed seven hits and six ERs in just three innings. Can the Yankees stay alive in Game 4? Boone said the only choice is to immediately erase the drubbing from their minds. "No choice but to flush," Boone said in his postgame press conference. "The good thing around (Game 3) is it's one game, and as awful of a night as it was for us, we got to turn the page, and (Game 4 is) obviously do or die."

Rick Porcello (17-7, 4,28 ERA) and CC Sabathia (9-7, 3.65 ERA) are the Game 4 starters. Porcello bounced back from a poor 2017 season (11-17) to win 17 games. This will be his first start of the 2018 postseason, although he did give up one hit while retiring two batters in a relief stint in Game 1. "This is what it's all about," Porcello said in a press conference. "You get an opportunity to have the ball in Yankee Stadium, Game 4, this is the culmination of the entire season and leads up to your opportunities in the postseason. So I'm definitely looking forward to that and giving us a chance to win." Sabathia hasn't pitched since Sep 27, when he threw five innings of one-hit shutout ball against the Tampa Bay Rays in a 12-1 win. The 38-year-old vet has pitched much better at home with a 3.12 ERA, compared to a 4.23 road ERA (Yanks were 10-5 in his home starts).

Did the Game 3 rout crush the Yankees? I seriously doubt that. In fact, I have to wonder just how Boston can help avoiding a letdown? The 29-year-old Porcello has never recorded a postseason victory, going 0-3 with a 5.33 ERA in 12 career appearances (just four starts). He is 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA in four postseason outings with the Red Sox. Meanwhile, the veteran Sabathia is well-versed in postseason pressure due to 23 appearances (22 starts), while compiling a 10-6 record and 4.20 ERA. What's more, he's 6-0 with a 3.32 ERA. in 11 ALDS appearances (10 starts). This series is headed back to Fenway!

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Cle Indians at 1:35 ET.

The Cleveland Indians lost the first two games of their ALDS to the Astros in Houston, 7-2 and 3-1. That's nothing to be ashamed of, as the Astros went 8-1 at home during their run to last year's World Series title, so that makes Houston 10-1 at home in the postseason since 2017. However, if Cleveland.hopes to have any chance of getting back in this series, it MUST wake up its dormant offense. The Indians finished 3rd in the major leagues in hits during the regular season, 2nd in team BA (.259), 3rd in scoring (5.05 RPG) and 4th in OPS (.767). However, they have managed just six hits (five singles and a HR by Francisco Lindor), to go along with four walks and 24 strikeouts while dropping the first two contests of the best-of-five series and totaling only three runs. Houston’s Alex Bregman has homered in each game of the series (three RBI) and teammate Marwin Gonzalez has recorded five hits in seven ABs, after hitting .247 during the regular season.

The Game 3 pitching matchup features Dallas Keuchel (12-11, 3.74 ERA) going up against Mike Clevinger (13-8, 3.02 ERA). Keuchel did finish over .500 after a slow start to the 2018 season but he did not finish the regular season strong down the stretch. Keuchel was just 1-1 with a 5.76 ERA in his last five starts (Houston went 2-3). The lefty won two games in both the 2015 and 2017 postseasons and sits 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA in eight postseason appearances (seven starts). As for Clevinger, his W-L record (13-8) and ERA (3.02) look fine but the Indians were just 16-16 in his 32 starts this season, leaving him minus-$786 against the moneyline. In Clevinger's three-year career, he has never started a postseason game. He has made six relief appearances in the postseason and is saddled with a 6.43 ERA in those games (a total of just seven innings).

Keuchel is 4-1 with a 2.79 ERA in eight career appearances against Cleveland but that includes him allowing six ERs over 11 innings (4.91 ERA) in two starts against the Indians in 2018. Clevinger is 1-3 with a 3.98 ERA in four career starts against the Astros, including 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA in 2018. The Astros finished September on an 8-2 run and have carried it over to the postseason (10-2 overall run) but manager A.J. Hinch does not expect his team to slow down. “This is not our first playoff series,” he told reporters. “We know it’s not over.”Meanwhile, Cleveland manager Terry Francona told reporters after Saturday's 3-1 loss, “We just need to find a way to win Monday. I’m guessing that Houston will enjoy their off-day more than we will. Other than that, show up on Monday and play for our baseball life. Nobody wants to go home.”

Houston was MLB's best road team in 2018, going 57-24, outscoring opponents 5.23-to-3.04 RPG. however, Cleveland was a strong 49-32 at home, averaging 5.43 RPG. Clevinger was 7-3 with a 3.14 ERA in 17 home starts this season and was outstanding overall in his last 10 starts of the regular season overall, going 6-1 with a 1.76 ERA (Indians were 8-2). This is "do-or-die" for Cleveland and note that Houston was only 3-6 on the road in the 2017 postseason. Cleveland 'lives' to 'fight' another day.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atl Braves at 8:05 ET.

The Dodgers lost the 2017 World Series in seven games and entered the 2018 season having won five straight NL titles. Yes, LA stumbled to a 16-26 start to open the current season but the Dodgers are playing their best baseball of the season at just the right time. They captured the NL West with a 5-2 win over the Rockies in Game No. 163 this past Monday and are now on the verge of reaching the NLCS for the third consecutive year, after beating the Braves 6-0 and 3-0 in this NLDS matchup. The Dodgers have dominated the series by hitting five HRs (led the NL with 235 HRs this season, setting a franchise record), while their pitchers have not allowed a run OR a walk! Starters Hyun-Jin Ryu and Clayton Kershaw have combined for 15 scoreless innings, as LA is now 21-9 since Sep 1.

The Braves entered 2018 off three consecutive 90-loss years, so the team's 90-72 record (won NL East by games eight games), came as quite a surprise. However, the team's lack of experience is showing so far, with no runs scored and just nine hits, while not a single batter has even been able to draw a walk. Atlanta is 0-for-6 with RISP for the series and the Braves return home for Game 3 having scored fewer than two runs in SIX of their last seven contests!

Game 3's pitching matchup will feature LA's Walker Buehler (8-5, 2.62 ERA), while the Braves will turn to lefty Sean Newcomb (12-9, 3.90 ERA). LA's starting staff has been hit hard by injuries this season but rookie Buehler has been a constant in a the rotation since late April  He has posted a 2.31 ERA in 23 starts (he allowed five runs in one relief appearance July 25 at Philly) while holding opposing hitters to a .185 batting average and a .531 OPS. He owns a 1.55 ERA with just 41 hits allowed over 75 1/3 innings in his last 12 starts (87 Ks). Buehler defeated Atlanta 7-3 at home back on June 8, surrendering one run and two hits in 5 1/3 innings in his only career starts vs Atlanta.

The Braves planned to start Kevin Gausman in Game 3 but after seeing the Dodgers succeed against right-handers in the first two games, they decided to turn to Newcomb. After all, he came within one strike of tossing a no-hitter vs Los Angeles back on July 29. However, the 25-year-old struggled after that outing, giving up five or more runs four times in his next eight starts (he went 2-4 but the team 4-4), before finishing the season with 5 2/3 scoreless innings. Newcomb did work two impressive innings of relief in Game 1, allowing one hit with two strikeouts while throwing 17 of his 25 pitches for strikes. 

Yes, Buehler's been outstanding but he is a rookie. Can the LA pitching staff really keep it up? After all, the Dodgers are the first team since the 1921 New York Yankees to open a postseason series with back-to-back shutouts. Sure, the Braves are batting .145 in the two playoff games and have one extra-base hit, but Atlanta did average 4.83 RPG this season at home. I just have to side with the Braves here, if for no other reason than the "due theory." Actually, the Braves are OVERDUE!

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Col Rockies at 4:35 ET.

The Milwaukee Brewers are on the verge of advancing to the NLCS for the first time since 2011, after winning the first two games of this NLDS matchup at Miller Park. The Brewers took Game 1 by the score of 3-2 (10 innings) and then won 4-0 in Game 2. The series now moves to Coors Field and the Brewers take a 10-game winning streak into Game 3, going back to the regular season. In stark contrast, the Rockies are hoping a return to Coors Field after some extended travel, can help ignite an offense that has totaled a modest six runs in four games. The Rockies last played at home this past Sunday but then lost 5-2 on Monday in Los Angeles to the Dodgers in Game No. 163. That forced them to travel to Wrigley Field for the wild-card game on Tuesday, where they beat the Chicago Cubs 2-1 in 13 innings. A day off was followed by Games 1 & 2 of this series in Milwaukee against the Brewers.

Sunday's pitching matchup will feature Arizona lefty Wade Miley (5-2, 2.57 ERA) going up against Colorado's German Marquez (14-11, 3.77 ERA). Miley made a pair of May starts, before going on the DL.He returned on July 12 and the team is a 'healthy' 12-4 in his 16 starts here in 2018. He hasn't suffered a loss since Aug 18 at St Louis but his last two outings have not been good (7 IP / & 7 ERs / 9.00 ERA). A positive note is that Miley is 7-2 with a 3.89 ERA in 14 games (13 starts) against the Rockies in his career. Freeland has been Colorado's ace in 2018 but Marquez has developed into the team's No. 2 starter. He finished 2018 with a career-high 230 Ks over 196 innings and the 23-year-old did not allow more than three ERs in any of his last 13 starts (2.25 ERA), surrendering two or fewer ERs in 11 of those starts.

In order to break Milwaukee's 10-game winning streak, Colorado's bats will need to 'wake up!' The Rockies have gone 2-for-26 (.077) with RISP over their four games this week, including 1-for-12 (.083) in the two losses to the Brewers. Overall in the NLDS, the Rockies are hitting .154 (10-for-65) with nine singles, one triple and 22 strikeouts. Colorado manager Bud Black told reporters, "I think playing at home can get us going. We still need to do what we have to do to win. We've got to pitch well and we have to swing the bats. We have pitched well (in Milwaukee) but we haven't swung the bats. Again, day off (Saturday), get back on the horse on Sunday and see where we are."

Both starters will be making their respective postseason debuts, so it should surely help Marquez being at home. More than just being at home, Marquez should be full of confidence, with a 2.25 ERA and 118-17 KW ratio over his last 13 starts (88 innings). He's also limited opponents to a .204 average and .580 OPS in that span. NO sweep here!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Yankees at 8:05 ET.

Chris Sale left the mound to a standing ovation and then waited along with anxious Red Sox fans while the Boston bullpen frittered away most of a five-run lead. I noted in taking Game 1 "over 7 1/2," that Boston relievers had a cumulative 4.84 ERA over the team's last 126 1/3 innings this season. Last night, five Boston relievers allowed two inherited runners to score plus allowed two runs in 3 2/3 innings (that would be a 4.91 ERA!). However, Sale was able to savor the first postseason win of his career, after Boston held on for a 5-4 victory over its longtime rivals in Game 1 of the ALDS. J.D. Martinez hit a three-run HR in the first and Boston added more two runs in the third, which was good enough.

Game 2's pitching matchup will feature New York's Masahiro Tanaka (12-6, 3.75 ERA) up against Boston's David Price (16-7, 3.58 ERA). Tanaka has been consistently inconsistent in 2018, as evidenced by him allowing eight ERs over eight innings in his last two starts of the regular season, after giving up just one ER over 21 innings during a three-start winning streak. All told, the Yankees went 16-11 in his 27 starts but his moneyline mark sits at minus-$490. Tanaka is 8-4 with a 4.35 ERA in 18 career outings vs the Red Sox but that includes him going 1-0 with a 7.58 ERA in four starts against Boston this season (Yanks were 2-2).

David Price began slowly in 2018 but Boston won 19 of his last 23 starts. He finished with 16 wins and an impressive moneyline mark of plus-$1294 (Boston was 22-8 in all of his starts), which ranked 8th-best among all MLB starting pitchers. Price has seen plenty of the Yankees in his career, going 15-14 with a 4.90 ERA in 42 career appearances (41 starts) against them. However, that include Price going 0-3 with a 10.34 ERA in four starts against New York (Boston was 1-3) in 2018.

I noted in my Game 1 analysis of this series that Boston won the season series 11-8 and those games averaged 11.47 RPG (one of major reason I played "over"). I'm tempted to go over again here but while the total was just 7 1/2 Friday, it is 9 for this Game 2. While I'm not completely 'sold' on Tanaka, I will note that he is 7-1 with a respectable 3.47 ERA and excellent 0.98 WHIP on the road in 2018. However, the "clincher' is, just how can one back Price in the postseason? For all his regular season prowess, he's an abysmal 2-8 with a 5.03 ERA in 17 appearances. NINE of those have been starts and he's 0-8 and his teams 0-9!! Anyone about to say "he's due?" Not I.

P.S. Don't forget about that AWFUL Boston bullpen!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Hou Astros at 2:05 ET.

It seems like MLB's newest 'toy' is to employ an "opener," a strategy (gimmick?) and it's already been used this postseason by Oakland and Milwaukee. However, the pitching matchup for Game 1 of the ALDS between the Cleveland Indians and Houston Astros will have "none of that," as a pair of former Cy Young winners square off.  For Cleveland it will be Corey Kluber (20-7, 2.89 ERA), who took home Cy Youngs in 2014 and 2017, going up against Houston's Justin Verlander (16-9, 2.52 ERA), the AL's MVP and Cy Young winner back in 2011 while with the Tigers. The defending champion Astros won a franchise-best 103 games in winning the AL West by six games over the Oakland A's. The Indians won a more modest 91 games in 2018 but had little trouble in winning their third straight AL Central title, out-distancing the second-place Twins by 13 games.

Both starting pitchers own impressive numbers, along with his 2.89 ERA, Kluber owns an 0.99 WHIP and .223 BAA. As for Verlander, along with his 2.52 ERA, his 0.90 WHIP and .200 BAA stand out. That said, both pitchers have not been moneymakers in 2018 with the Indians going 21-12 in Kluber's starts (minus-$190). The Astros were 21-13 in Verlander's starts but his losses were much greater (minus-$928). Then again, both come in pitching very will. Kluber recorded a 2.80 ERA during his final starts, going 4-0 (team was 4-2) to reach 20 victories for the first time and strike out at 200 for the fifth straight year. Verlander was 3-0 over his last five starts (Astros were 5-0), posting a 1.09 ERA and a 50-4 KW ratio.

Looking closer, after being a star in the 2016 postseason (4-1, 1.83 ERA), Kluber was awful in the 2017 postseason in giving up nine ERs over 6 1/3 innings (12.79 ERA). Verlander came up big for the Astros in leading them to a World Series title last year and during his career, Verlander has made 10 appearances in LDS contests (nine starts), going 6-0 with a 2.29 ERA. I'm with Verlander in this one and will note that the Astros were 8-1 at home in the 2017 postseason.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Playoff Payoff is on the Chi Cubs at 8:05 ET.

The Chicago Cubs took the field on Monday afternoon tied for the best record in the National League but after a 3-1 home loss to the Brewers, find themselves playing for postseason 'survival' tonight against the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies also lost a one-game tiebreaker for the NL West title, 5-2 in LA against the Dodgers. Colorado missed a chance to capture its first division title in franchise history but the Rockies are in the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for the first time in 26 years!

Tonight's pitching matchup features a pair of lefties, Kyle Freeland (17-7, 2.85 ERA) of Colorado and Jon Lester (18-6, 3.32 ERA) of Chicago. Freeland has delivered a breakout season, closing on a run of 11 consecutive quality starts in which he went 8-0 with a 2.18 ERA (Rockies were 10-1). Freeland ended the regular season with MLB's second-best money line mark (plus-$1,486) as the Rockies were 23-10 in all of his starts. Lester is a 34-year-old vet and he went 6-1 with a 1.71 ERA over his last eight starts (Cubs went 7-1), throwing six scoreless innings to beat Pittsburgh 3-0 in his regular-season finale.Lester didn't finish too far behind Freeland in the moneyline standings, as with the Cubs going 24-8 in his starts, he earned $1,415 (5th-best).

The Rockies had won nine of 10 games prior to Monday’s loss, when they were held scoreless until the ninth inning. The Chicago bats were equally 'silent,' as Anthony Rizzo’s solo HR accounted for the Cubs’ lone run. Kyle Freeland 9-1 with a 2.41 ERA in 14 starts (Colorado was 12-2) since the All-Star break and has not lost since Aug 1. Those are impressive numbers but he is 0-2 in a pair of career starts against the Cubs (4.15 ERA). What's more, he's being asked to start on three days' rest.

Lester may be just 1-3 against the Rockies but he owns a 2.25 ERA in those five career starts. More importantly, he's no stranger to October baseball, as he’s set to make his 26th postseason appearance, including his 22nd postseason start. In that span, he owns an impressive 2.55 ERA over 148 innings with a 124-39 KW ratio. Experience counts. Cubs Win! Cubs Win!

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Atlanta Braves (7:05 EST).

The Braves are waffling down the stretch and they just lost two of three to the Mets. I had the Mets in last night’s victory in New York as my underdog MONSTER.

But I think Atlanta will bounce back in Philadelphia tonight with what I feel to be the far superior starter on the hill for it. 

The Braves turn to Mike Foltynewicz (12-10, 2.88 ERA) who hasn’t been perfect this season, but who is definitely putting together his best overall campaign of his career. 

Note that Foltynewicz has excelled on the road all year as well, going 7-6 with a 2.32 ERA.

The home side counters with Jerad Eickhoff (0-0, 9.00) who returns to the rotation today and will make his first start of the season because of injuries. 

Atlanta is in a dog fight for home field advantage and after its lacklustre series in The Big Apple, I’m expecting the team to play with much more desperation this evening. 

Note that Foltynewicz has a 2.08 ERA in five starts against the Phillies this year and he’s 5-3 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.236 WHIP in 12 career appearances against them. 

I love Foltynewicz in this spot, great value. Play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* UNDERDOG MONSTER is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST).

I had a play on the Mets last night and I think they offer great value in a minor upset role here as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Julio Teheran (9-8, 4.03 ERA) who (like his team), has been waffling a bit down the stretch. He was 11-13 with a 4.49 ERA overall last year, so he’s made strides this season, but note that he’s still just 5-5 with a 4.63 ERA on the road.

The home side hands the ball to Jason Vargas (6-9, 6.25) who for the most part has struggled this season. He was 18-11 with a 4.16 ERA while with KC last year.

Vargas comes in off a decent outing against the Reds though and note that he’s been at his best at home with a somewhat respectable 4.38 ERA.

Note as well that the Braves are a poor 21-23 (-2.7 units) against left-handed starters this year, while the Mets are surging to the finish line, so far 15-9 (+6.8 units) in the month of September.

I think Teheran stumbles and I like the Mets to take advantage. Play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks 10* (9:40 EST).

Here’s another one where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor.

The visitors hand the ball to Ross Stripling (8-5, 2.84 ERA) who gave up three runs off four this over 3.1 innings in a loss to St. Louis on Sunday. Overall Stripling has been great and it’s difficult to find too many faults with the hard-throwing right-hander. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

The home side counters with Zack Greinke (14-11, 3.21) who comes in off a shaky start as well, giving up four runs off eight hits with two walks over seven innings in a loss to Houston on Sunday. 

Greinke has been grinding a bit down the stretch, but note that he’s consistently been at his best at home by going 6-4 with a  2.32 ERA. 

Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is 7-2 in its last nine National League night home games in which it’s an underdog in the +105 to +125 range.

I look for Greinke to continue his strong play at home. Play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets 8* (7:10 EST).

Atlanta might have the bigger offense, but this is mismatch on the mound which favors the him eside.

The visitors hand the ball to Sean Newcomb (12-9, 4.04 ERA) who was rocked for five runs off six hits over three innings in a loss to the Nationals on Sunday. 

Newcomb has now failed to complete five innings in three of his last four starts and I think his regression continues here.

The visitors hand the ball to Jacob DeGrom (9-9, 1.77) who continues to put up Cy Young like numbers and efforts almost every time he takes the mound.

DeGrom looks to close out the season strong and take advantage of this favorable situation, as note that he has a minuscule 1.66 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Newcomb is in for another long night at the end of the season here. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

This is an 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals.

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The Brewers’ Jhoulys Chacin (14-8, 3.61 ERA) has been fantastic overall this year, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight (owns a pedestrian 4.01 ERA in all night games.)

The home side counties with John Gant (7-6, 3.53) who for the most part has also been better than the the Cards were likely hoping for this season. Gant now looks to close strong and improve upon his already impressive 4-2, 2.46 ERA in all night contests.

I’ll point out as well that despite being 90-67 (+17.5 units) overall, the Brewers are still just 37-38 (-4.2 units) this season against the division. The Cardinals are 87-70 (+5.3 units) overall, except they’re a sharp 40-31 (+4.8 units) against the division.

I’m banking on Gant getting the better of Chacin. Play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the San Diego Padres (10:15 EST).

I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the visiting underdog.

The Padres hand the ball to Robbie Erlin (4-7, 4.33 ERA), who for the most part has thrown out of the bullpen this year. Erlin’s been better at home than on the road, but no matter where he’s been he’s been sharp in all “night” games, as evidenced by his 3.55 ERA.

The home side counters with the volatile Chris Stratton (10-10, 4.88) who comes in off back-to-back poor outings. Stratton has been downright pedestrian in this position all season by going 8-9 with a  4.94 ERA in all “night” games.

I’ll point out as well that San Diego is a sharp 11-4 in its last 15 National League road games in which it’s an underdog in the +105 to +125 range. 

I’m banking on Erlin getting the better of the inconsistent Stratton. Play on the Padres.

Good luck..Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:15 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Gio Gonzalez (9-11, 4.28 ERA) who has been hit or miss for his new club.

Overall Gonzalez has struggled to re-gain his 2017 form and note that he’s been especially poor on the road by going 3-7 with a 4.93 ERA.

The home side counters with Austin Gomber (6-1, 3.63) who after getting rocked for seven runs against the Dodgers, bounced back with a strong effort against the Braves on Tuesday. He hasn’t been perfect, but the rookie’s been sharp at home with a 3-1, 3.93 ERA.

Note as well that the Cards are 10-5 in their last 15 National League home games when the line in the game is set between +125 and -125. 

I think Gomber is the correct call and there’s no doubt that the price is right. Play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Chicago Cubs (8:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. 

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Chris Archer (5-8, 4.49 ERA) who has been more “miss” than “hit” for his new team. He comes in off a decent outing against the lowly Royals, but note that he’s just 4-6 with a 4.91 ERA in road games.

The Cubs’ Mike Montgomery (5-5, 3.75) has looked brilliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others. Overall he’s been solid though, especially in this spot where he’s posted a sharp 3.32 ERA in all night games.

I’ll point out as well that the Cubs are 7-2 in their last nine National League home games as a favorite in the -125 to -150 range. I’m banking on Montgomery continuing his steady play at home, while all signs point to further regression for Archer.

Lay the price, play on the Cubs.

Good luck…Larry

The second play of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants 8* (10:15 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Bryan Mitchell (1-4, 6.16 ERA) who for the most part has been an absolute disaster this year. Note that he’s been especially terrible in all night games as well with a 1-3, 6.03 ERA record to this point.

The home side counters with Derek Holland (7-8, 3.57 ERA) who comes in off consecutive strong outings and who is a sharp 4-3 with a 3.31 ERA at home.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often recent form is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by Holland suggests to me that he could in fact be a much bigger fav in this particular matchup. Great value on the Giants.

Good luck..Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners 10* (10:10 EST).

Here’s another one where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor.

Daniel Mengden (7-6, 4.00 ERA) who has primarily been used in relief over the second half. He’s looked decent of late, but note that he owns a poor 5.04 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with James Paxton (11-6, 3.83) who returns from a short stint on the DL from flu like symptoms. 

The big southpaw hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s poised to close out strong, note that he’s been particularly effective in this spot as well this season by going 5-4 with a 3.13 ERA at home.

I’m banking on Paxton continuing his strong performances in front of the home town crowd, while I expect Mengden to struggle on the short notice.. Play on the Mariners.

Good luck…Larry

The first play of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals 8* (8:15 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. 

The visitors hand the ball to Chase Anderson (9-8, 3.93 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits with two walks over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Reds on Tuesday. He’d give up four extra-base hits in his short stint on the hill and it was the fourth time in his last eight starts that he’s not made it through five innings of work.

The home side counters with Joe Flaherty (8-8, 3.08) who hasn’t been perfect this year, but who has been extremely consistent in this spot by posting a tiny 2.54 ERA in all home contests.

Recent form displayed by Anderson suggests that he’s getting far too much respect from the oddsmakers on the road in my opinion. Look for Flaherty to take advantage.

Play on the Cards.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (4:10 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up.

The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Freeland (15-7, 2.95 ERA) who is putting together his best campaign ever. Last year he was 11-11 with a 4.10 ERA. He’s been rock solid across the board and it’s difficult to say too many negative things about him, so I won’t even bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place in the wrong time in this one.

And that’s because the Diamondbacks’ Zack Godley (14-10, 4.79) has been at his best at home this year, going 6-4 with a very respectable 3.74 ERA.

I’ll point out additionally that the Diamondbacks are 13-8 in their last 21 National League afternoon home games in which the line in the contest is set between -125 and +125.

I’m banking on Freeland finally faltering and for Godley to deliver the goods on his home field. Play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Milwaukee Brewers (1:35 EST).

Joe Musgrove has been decent for the Pirates this year, but the Brewers’ Wade Miley has been fantastic and I think he’s going to easily out duel his inconsistent counterpart. 

Miley (5-2, 2.08 ERA) has made the most of his time this season and he’ll now look to close strong. Note that he’s 3-2 with a 2.14 ERA on the road.

Musgrove (6-9, 4.06) most recently was rocked for five runs off eight hits while striking out four over six innings against Kansas City on Monday. Over 18.1 innings in September he’s now given up 11 runs. 

Note that Musgrove is just 4-5 with a 4.51 ERA at home as well this year.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by Musgrove suggests that the Pirates are in fact getting way too much respect in this matchup. 

I look for Miley to continue his strong end to the season. Lay the price.

NOTE: There’s been a pitching change for the Pirates and Musgrove is out and Kingham is in. This play is STILL ACTIVE. Kingham (5-6, 4.69 ERA) has been serviceable in his rookie year, but clearly this is a difficult spot start. I think he’ll predictably stumble.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Late-Breaking Play is on the Tex Rangers at 8:05 ET. The Texas Rangers fired manager Jeff Banister and named bench coach Don Wakamatsu interim manager. His first game at the helm was Friday night's opener of a three-game series against the Seattle Mariners, a team he managed back in 2009-10 before being fired. Adrian Beltre homered (his 476th, which makes him 30th all-time in HRs) and registered a season-best five RBI as Texas posted an 8-3 victory in a game halted in the seventh inning due to rain. The Rangers were maybe just due for a good game, after losing four straight games and 16 of their past 22. The 84-69 Mariners are 19 games better than the 65-88 Rangers but with just nine games left to their 2018 season, are 8 1/2 games back of the A's for the final wild card spot.

A pair of lefties will square off on Saturday night, Marco Gonzales (12-9, 4.28 ERA) for Seattle and Mike Minor (12-7, 4.14 ERA) for the Rangers. The two come in headed in different directions. Gonzales has gone without a decision in back-to-back starts since returning from a neck injury plus he had lost four consecutive starts before going on the disabled list, posting a ghastly 10.35 ERA during that stretch. Gonzales takes the mound with Seattle having lost his last six starts (minus-$847 vs the moneyline) and with a 2-1 (5.40 ERA) record in three career meetings with Seattle.

In direct contrast to Gonzales, Minor has won six of his last seven decisions and allowed two runs or less in EIGHT of his nine starts since the All Star break (2.72 ERA in that span).  The 30-year-old has performed well at home this season, going 6-3 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 14 starts.

A small concern for Texas is that Minor is 0-1 with a 7.24 ERA in three starts against Seattle this year and 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA in seven career appearances (four starts). However, I LOVE the way he's pitched since the break plus Gonzales has 'hit a wall' since the start of August (see above for a reminder). Wakamatsu should 'enjoy' being on the field when the team that fired him years ago gets officially eliminated from the 2018 postseason. Texas is a 9*.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cleveland Indians (7:10 EST).

I don’t think that that home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. 

The visitors hand the ball to Rick Porcello (17-7, 4.30 ERA) and he’s enjoyed a resurgent season overall in 2018, but if he’s had one weakness it’s been his play in all “night” games, coming in with the the poor 4.91 ERA in such instances.

The home side counters with Mike Clevinger (12-8, 3.06) who hasn’t been perfect this year, but who continues to put up a consistent effort almost every time he takes the mound. Clevinger has to be feeling confident here as he’s 7-3 with a 3.12 ERA at home (and owns a respectable 3.46 ERA in all night games.)

I think the Clevinger gets the better of his senior counterpart. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies 10* (9:40 EST).

Whether Zack Godley or Zack Greinke throws for Arizona in this one, I like German Marquez in this spot for sure (note that whether it’s Godley or Greinke going, I like Marquez in this one. This play is based entirely around the fact that the Rockies are starting Marquez.)

Marquez (12-10, 3.96 ERA) has been on fire of late, and he’s been especially tough on the road (5-6 with a 5.14 ERA at Coors Field and 7-4 with a 2.74 ERA away from friendly confines.) 

The in-decision of who is actually going to get the start here for the home side only strengthens this play. I’m banking on Marquez continuing his strong end of season form, play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals 8* (8:15 EST).

I don’t think that that home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up.

The visitors hand the ball to Madison Bumgarner (6-6, 3.14 ERA) who was lifted from his last start for precautionary measures with side issues. He’s been given the green light here, but note that while the veteran is a “lights out” 4-2 with a 1.34 ERA at home, he’s just 2-4 with a 5.42 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with John Gant (7-6, 3.53) who continues to throw consistently down the stretch, having allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last seven trips to the hill. 

Note that Gant owns a respectable 3.54 ERA at home so far, along with an elite 2.33 ERA in all night games.

An injured Bumgarner on the road? I’ll take Gant and the hard-hitting home side for what I think is a very reasonable mid-sized price.

Play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets 8* (7:05 EST).

I think this line could easily be a lot larger considering the massive talent discrepancy on the mound tonight.

The Nationals’ Joe Ross has actually looked decent in two straight no-decisions in his first action since July 2017, but Mets’ ace Jacob deGrom has been on an entirely different level all year, easily posting Cy Young worthy numbers to this point.

deGrom (8-9, 1.78 ERA) continues to throw at an elite level every night and note that he’s 5-3 with a 1.91 ERA on the road.

Ross (0-0, 3.60) will be given every opportunity as the season winds down, but I think he’s in well over his head in this spot.

I look for deGrom to out-distance his still un-proven counterpart. Lay the price, play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. 

The visitors hand the ball to Vince Velasquez (9-11, 4.50 ERA) who comes in off consecutive poor outings, most recently against the Marlins on Saturday.

The home side counters with Kevin Gausman (10-10, 3.92) who also comes in off consecutive “ho hum” performances, most recently against the Nationals on Friday. Overall though Gausman’s been sharp for his new club, and note that he’s been at this best in all home situations so far this year with a very respectable 8-6, 3.74 ERA in such instances.

I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia is a horrible 31-37 (-13.4 units) against the division this season, while Atlanta is 43-22 (+23 units) in the same position.

All things considered, I feel this is a very fair price. Play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks 10* (9:40 EST).

Here’s another one where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor.

The visitors hand the all to Cole Hamels (9-9, 3.67 ERA) who has been unbelievable for Chicago since coming over from the Rangers almost two months ago. Hamels has been great, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one though.

The home side counters with Robbie Ray (5-2, 4.14) who after a shaky first half (marred by injury), has looked a lot better in the second.

Ray has to be feeling confident here as as well, as note that he’s 5-1 with a 3.56 ERA in all night contests this season.

Additionally note that the Diamondbacks are 7-2 in their last nine National League home games as a favorite in the -105 to -125 range. 

Play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Diego Padres 8* (9:10 EST).

I don’t think that that home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Chris Stratton (10-9, 4.66 ERA) who has struggled down the stretch for the most part and who has consistently been at his worst on the road by going just 4-6 with a 5.03 ERA. 

The home side counters with Robbie Erlin (3-7, 4.27) who has thrown mostly out of the bullpen this year. Erlin hasn’t been perfect whatsoever this season, but he’s without question been at his best in front of the home town crowd (as his 2.60 ERA will attest too.)

I’m banking on Erlin’s strong home play continuing here and I look for him to easily get the better of the “gas can” Stratton. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets 8* (6:05 EST).

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a starting hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by Mets’ starter Noah Syndergaard suggests that he’s probably being severely undervalued in this matchup.

Syndergaard (12-3, 3.26 ERA) most recently went seven scoreless and struck out six in a win over the Red Sox in Boston on Friday. While he’s 7-1 at home and 5-2 on the road, note that his ERA stands at 3.55 in friendly confines and 2.99 away.

The home side counters with the volatile Zach Eflin (10-7, 4.26) who after an unreal and unsustainable first half, has predictably coming crashing back down to Earth in the second. 

Eflin has shown me nothing of late to suggest that he’s going to suddenly “flip a switch” here. Syndergaard though is clearly rounding into form as the season closes. I’m banking on that trend continuing.

Lay the price, play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the St. Louis Cardinals (12:10 EST).

In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of great line value. Sure the Braves are playing at home, but Joe Flaherty has a major advantage over his inconsistent counterpart.

Flaherty (8-7, 2.86 ERA) most recently gave up one run while striking out eight over six innings in what turned out to be a loss to the Dodgers on Friday. Clearly he threw well enough for the victory, but he’d unfortunately not receive enough support.

Despite the hard-luck setback, the right-hander has still not allowed more than three earned runs in a start since July 31st. Note as well that he’s a “lights out” 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA in all day games.

The home side counters with Touki Toussaint (1-1, 4.67) who has almost as many walks (13) as he does K’s (15) in the majors. The sky in fact could be the limit for Toussaint, but I think he’s completely overmatched in this one.

I like the opportunistic Cards’ line-up to give Flaherty some support this time around. Play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Mariners (8:10 EST).

I think that Mike Leake and the dangerous Mariners have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one.

Leake (10-9, 3.99 ERA) comes in off consecutive strong outings, most recently against the Padres. The veteran has been solid across the board, including on the road with a 6-4, 3.99 ERA thus far.

The home side counters with Gerritt Cole (14-5, 2.88) who gave up two runs off three hits over five innings in a win over Detroit last week. 

Cole’s been fantastic, I simply feel that Leake can match him inning for inning in this one.

And in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel that the value swings to the undervalued underdog. Play on the Mariners.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up. I also think “recent form” will play a big part in the final outcome as well.

The visitors hand the ball to rookie Austin Gomber (5-1, 3.78 ERA) who most recently gave up seven earned runs off nine hits while striking out three over three innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Thursday.

The home side counters with Anibal Sanchez (6-5, 3.01) who most recently gave up one run off shix hits over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision to the Giants on Wednesday. Sanchez sports the sharp ERA along with 1.12 WHIP and note that he’s 4-3 with a  3.27 ERA in all night games this year.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by Gomber suggests that youngster could be running out of gas. I’m banking on Sanchez taking advantage. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the New York Yankees (1:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Nate Eovaldi (5-7, 4.22 ERA) who returns to the starting rotation out of necessity. Eovaldi most recently pitched 3.2 innings after Chris Sale exited his last start early and he looked decent.

But overall he’s been a disappointment, especially on the road where he’s a terrible 2-6 with 5.88 ERA.

The home side counters with JA Happ (16-6, 3.75 ERA) who hasn’t been perfect since coming in a trade from Toronto about a month, but damn near it. 

Happ has to be feeling confident today, as note that he already has a 47:12 K/BB over 46.2 innings for the Yanks.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by Eovaldi on the road suggests he’s getting far too much respect here in my opinion. Play on the Yankees.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Dodgers (10:10 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Jon Gray (11-7, 4.80 ERA) who has looked brilliant at times this season and very pedestrian in others. Note that he’s 6-3 with a 4.78 ERA at Coors Field and only 5-4 with a 5.91 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Hyun-Jin Ryu (4-3, 2.42) who comes in off a loss against Cincinnati on Tuesday, allowing three runs off five hits over five innings. Ryu looks to regain his form after returning from injury in mid August, but a date at home is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked as note that he’s so far an elite 3-2 with a 1.41 ERA. 

I think Gray’s road inconsistencies come back to haunt him here and I look for Ryu to take advantage and to get back on track with a convincing performance in this favorable situation.

Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST).

As awesome as Zack Wheeler has been over the last two months, he still plays for the Mets.

I think Wheeler and the Phillies Jake Arrieta battle into the latter frames, but I look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Wheeler (11-7, 3.23 ERA) just went eight shutout against the Marlins on Wednesday. He now owns a 1.13 WHIP and clearly it’s difficult to say anything negative about Wheeler, I simply feel that he’s finally in the wrong place at the wrong time on Monday.

And that’s because Arrieta (10-9, 3.66 has a sharp 3.30 ERA at home and an an even better 3.10 ERA in all night games.

As I said, I think these pitchers are very evenly matched, but Wheeler plays for an offensively challenged club and I believe that fact will finally catch up to him here.

Great value, play on the Phillies.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the LA Dodgers (8:05 EST).

I’ve played on the Dodgers on each of the last two days (both victories of the “rocking chair” variety) and I believe they’ll find a way to get the job done here as well. 

LA hands the ball to the steady Ross Stripling (8-3, 2.61 ERA) who returns to the starting line-up with a 1.12 WHIP and 108/12 K/W over 18 outings (98 innings) this season.

Note that Stripling owns a 2.56 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with the volatile Adam Wainwright (1-3, 4.70) who returned from the DL on Monday to face the Pirates to give up four runs off seven hits over five innings in the eventual loss. To go along with his horrible ERA, Wainwright also sports a poor 1.74 WHIP.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly asses a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by Wainwright suggests that he’s in way over his head here against the red hot Stripling. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Milwaukee Brewers (7:10 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Ivan Nova (8-9, 4.17 ERA) who returns from the DL to make this start. Nova has been solid at PNC Park so far this year (3.30), but not so much on the road (5.73 ERA).

The home side counters with Zach Davies (2-5, 4.75) who will look to take advantage of this end of season opportunity to throw for the big club. He’s had mixed results so far, but I still think he’ll have more than enough in the tank to get the better of the volatile Nova.

Note as well that the Brewers are 8-4 in their last 12 National League home games as a favorite in the -150 to -175 range. I’m banking on Davies getting the better of Nova, who has been a disaster on the road to this point. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the LA Dodgers (1:05 EST).

I like the opportunistic visiting side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. 

The visitors hand the ball to Rich Hill (8-5, 3.88 ERA) who after a slow start, has gotten stronger as the season has worn on. After finishing 12-8 with a 3.32 ERA last season, the veteran is now also hitting his stride in 2018 (note that Hill is 4-1 with a 3.57 ERA on the road.) 

The home side counters with John Gant (7-5, 3.16) who for the most part has been as solid as the Cards could possibly have hoped for this season. It’s hard to say anything negative about Gant, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

And that’s because the Cards are a poor 2-7 in their last nine day-time National League home games in which the line in the contest is set between +125 and -125.

I like Hill to out-last Gant and for the hard-hitting Dodgers to deliver the goods at the end of the night.

Play on LA.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Dodgers (8:15 EST).

I think this one favors Walker Buehler and the opportunistic visiting side.

Buehler (6-5, 3.09 ERA) gave up four earned runs while striking out seven over six innings in a loss at Colorado on Saturday. The thin air of Coors Field got to Buehler, like it does to so many, so clearly I’m not over-reacting to that performance.  Over his last 58.1 innings of work he’s still given up only 18 earned runs.

The home side counters with Joe Flaherty (8-6, 2.92) who gave up three runs off four hits with four walks over five innings in a loss to Detroit on Saturday. For the most Flaherty has been solid this year, but clearly this latest effort was a big step back.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. 

Recent form displayed by Flaherty suggests that the home side is likely getting too much respect in this match-up. In my opinion we’re getting great value on Buehler and LA.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (8:10 EST).

This is a great situational play in my opinion, as I think Gio Gonzalez will stumble in his first start for his new team.

The Pirates hand the ball to Chris Archer (4-7, 4.56 ERA) and he most recently gave up three runs off five hits with three walks while striking out five over six innings against the Marlins on Friday. So far Archer has struggled in his time in Pittsburgh, but this latest effort was clearly a big step in the right direction (note that he owns a 3.99 ERA in all night games as well.)

Gonzalez (8-11, 4.40) posted a poor 4.57 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over 27 starts for the Nats and I don’t think he’s going to suddenly “flip a switch” in his first start after getting cast away by Washington.

I’m banking on Archer building off his latest performance and I expect Gonzalez to continue his slide into mediocrity. Play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NATIONAL LEAGUE GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Colorado Rockies (3:10 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up.

The visitors hand the ball to Clay Buchholz (7-2, 2.01 ERA) who gave up two runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Braves on Saturday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Buchholz, but clearly at some point regression is imminent in my opinion. 

The home side counters with the equally as hot Kyle Freeland (14-7, 2.91) who comes in off consecutive strong outings and who appears to be getting better as the season wears on. 

Note that Freeland is an amazing 8-2 with a 2.21 ERA at Coors Field.

Buchholz has been awfully good to this point, but I think the veteran finally takes a step back in this difficult road venue.

Freeland on the other hand has proven he can pitch in the thin air and I look for that strong trend to continue. Great price, play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. 

The visitors hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg (7-7, 4.04 ERA) who has struggled with his velocity since returning from injury in early August. Strasburg’s been much better on the road than at home this season, but his recent form is definitely a concern.

The home side counters with Aaron Nola (16-4, 2.29) who comes in off a victory over the Mets on Friday, giving up three runs off three hits with one walk and striking out eight over seven innings. 

Note that Nola is 9-1 with a 2.21 ERA at home and 10-1 with a 1.84 ERA in all “night” games.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching, and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have.

Recent form displayed by Strasburg suggests that he’s getting far too much respect from the oddsmakers in my opinion. Lay the price, play on the Phillies.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Cleveland Indians (1:10 EST).

Two competent starters collide on Wednesday afternoon, but I think this one favors the big bats’ of the Indians.

The visitors hand the ball to Carlos Carrasco (16-8, 3.41 ERA) who gave up two runs (just one earned) off six hits while striking out 14 over eight innings against the Jays on Friday. Over 168 innings of work Carrasco has 199 K’s and note that he’s been at his best on the road with a 7-4, 2.61 ERA record thus far.

The home side counters with Blake Snell (18-5, 2.06) who continues to put together the best campaign of his career. Snell was 5-7 with a 4.04 ERA last season and while his peripherals suggest that he can maintain a strong form, one has to wonder when the southpaw will finally falter? 

Certainly this is a difficult opponent. Ultimately though I expect that Carrasco can match Snell inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the under-valued, hard-hitting visiting side.

Play on the Indians.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST).

I think that Andrew Suarez and the home side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Foltynewicz (10-9, 2.75 ERA) who comes in off a strong August and who is putting together a great campaign after finishing 10-13 with a 4.79 ERA a year ago.

Foltynewicz has been great, I just think he’ll stumble here in this difficult road venue against Suarez (6-10, 4.33) who comes in off a consecutive strong outings and who appears to be getting better as the season has worn on.

The rookie has also been at his best at home with a 2.97 ERA. 

Additionally note that the Giants are 10-4 in their last 14 National League home games as an underdog in the +125 to +150 range.

Great value, play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:15 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Joe Musgrove (6-8, 3.75 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing against the Reds on Tuesday. He’s been trading good starts with bad of late and I think that trend carries over here.

The home side goes with Miles Mikolas (14-4, 3.06) who will now look to close out his best season ever with another big effort in front of the home town crowd. Note that MIkolas is 8-0 with a 3.86 ERA on the road and 6-4 with a 2.11 ERA at home.

Additionally note that the Pirates are just 2-7 in their last nine National League road games in which they’re an underdog in the +125 to +175 range.

I’m banking on Mikolas finding a way to get the job done here. Play on the Cards.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Chicago Cubs (8:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin (14-6, 3.59 ERA) who has traded good starts with bad of late.

It’s hard to say anything negative about Chacin so I won’t even bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

The home side counters with Jose Quintana (12-9, 4.14) who comes in off consecutive strong outings and who has to be feeling confident that he can keep the good times rolling, as note that he owns a tiny 2.71 ERA in all night games this year.

I’ll point out as well that the Cubs are 10-4 in their last 14 National League home games in which they are a favorite in the -135 to -150 range.

No upsets here, lay the price, play on the Cubs.

Good luck…Larry 

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves 10* (10:15 EST).

Yes Dereck Rodriguez has been fantastic in his very first year and yes Sean Newcomb has started to slide at the most inopportune times for the Braves. But I still don’t think it’s going to matter tonight.

Newcomb (11-8, 3.92 ERA) has struggled over the last month, but he still comes in with a sharp 7-3, 3.12 ERA on the road this year.

Rodriguez (6-2, 2.41) gave up one run over six innings in a no-decision to Colorado most recently. It’s hard to say anything negative about Rodriguez, so I won’t even bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. 

And that’s because note that the Braves are a stellar 60-41 (+20.8 units) against right-handed starters this season, while the Giants are just 26-30 against southpaws.

Newcomb gets back on track with a big effort here. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs 8* (8:05 EST).

Here’s another one where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor.

The visitors hand the ball to Wade Miley (3-2, 2.12 ERA) who gave up one run over six innings in a victory over these very Cubs on Tuesday. Miley’s been unbelievable, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

The home side counters with the steady Jon Lester (15-5, 3.53) who comes in off consecutive victories and who has been at his best in all night games, going 7-3 with a 2.78 ERA.

Note as well that the Cubs are 9-2 in their last 11 night National League home games in which they’re a favorite in the -125 to -145 range. Look for Lester to out-last Miley and for the Cubs to provide the rest. Lay the price, play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (8:10 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. MLB is one of the only sports in which you have to look at each match-up seperately, as for the most part baseball handicapping comes down to the starting pitchers. While I took the Braves last night, there's no question I believe that the home side has the advantage here.

The visitors go with Julio Teheran (9-7, 4.05 ERA) who comes in off two straight strong outings and who for the most part has been solid overall for the Braves this season. Note though that he’s just 5-5 with a 4.56 ERA on the road this year.

The home side counters with the resurgent Clay Buchholz (7-2, 2.05) who gave up one earned run off four hits with two walks while striking out four over five innings in a victory over LA last weekend.

As mentioned off the top, I do indeed think that “home field” is a factor here, as note that Buchholz is a sharp 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far.

I think that Teheran’s road inconsistencies come back to bite him here in this difficult venue, while I expect Buchholz to continue to shine and to come in focused on the task at hand.

Lay the price, play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves 10* (9:40 EST).

Kevin Gausman has been on a tear for the Braves and I think he offers great value in a minor upset role on Friday night.

Gausman (9-9, 3.78) comes in off two straight gems, pushing his record with Atlanta to 5-1 with a victory most recently over the Pirates.

Note that Gausman comes in sporting a tiny 3.60 ERA on the road as well. 

Clearly it won’t be easy, as Diamondbacks’ starter Patrick Corbin (10-5, 3.06) comes in hot as well, most recently going five scoreless against the Dodgers on Saturday. 

It’s hard to say anything negative about Corbin, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that Gausman can match Corbin inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the under-valued underdog. Play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers 8* (8:40 EST).

All things being equal with this one being at Coors Field, I still think that Clayton Kershaw has a major advantage in this match-up.

Kershaw (6-5, 2.40 ERA) comes in off consecutive strong outings and for the most part he has been sharp since returning from injury in late July. Kershaw has to be feeling confident here as he’s 3-2 with a tiny 1.78 ERA on the road thus far.

The home side counters with Jon Gray (11-7, 4.70) who after a shaky start to the 2018 campaign has admittedly looked better of late. 

Note though that the Rockies are a poor 2-8 in their last ten night home games in which they’re an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. 

I think Gray is getting too much respect here. Look for Kershaw to step up and take advantage and lay this price with confidence.

Play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies 8* (7:05 EST).

While he came up short in his last start, I think Aaron Nola gets right back on track here in this favorable matchup and venue. And while he looked good in his last outing, I think Stephen Matz is primed for a predicable letdown tonight.

Nola (15-4, 2.23 ERA) gave up four runs off five hits with two walks while striking out 11 over 5.2 innings in a loss to the Cubs on Sunday. Despite the sub-par effort Nola still comes in sporting an elite 2.23 ERA and 188 K’s over 181.2 innings of work.

Note as well that Nola has been “lights out” on the road with a 6-3, 2.15 ERA thus far.

Matz (5-11, 4.20) gave up one run over seven innings in a win over San Francisco on Saturday. While he’s looked better of late, note that he still owns a shaky 4.20 ERA and 8.7 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. Also note that he’s an unremarkable 4-5 with a 5.01 ERA in all night games this year.

I like Nola to come in with a chip on his shoulder and to continue his amazing season. All things considered, I feel we’re getting great value on Philadelphia in this matchup.

Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 7* PERFECT STORM is on the Cincinnati Reds (6:40 EST).

I don’t normally lay chalk of this size, but in this case I think it’s warranted.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Eric Lauer (5-7, 5.01 ERA) who comes in off an unfortunate no-decision against the Rockies on Thursday, allowing one off no hits with two walks while striking out two over five innings.

The rookie has for the most part struggled this year though, note that he’s just 2-3 with a 5.98 ERA on the road so far.

The home side counters with the under-the-radar Luis Castillo (8-11, 4.83), who after a disastrous first half, has looked a lot better over the second. Since the Mid-summer classic he’s now posted a 3.15 ERA to go along with 46 strikeouts over 40 innings of work. 

Note as well that Castillo is 5-4 with a very respectable 3.69 ERA at home as well.

As mentioned off the top, I don’t typically lay chalk of this size, but everything points to a blowout from start to finish here. I’m laying the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the San Francisco Giants (8:40 EST).

Looks like a great spot to pull the trigger on the underdog in my opinion.

The visitors go with Andrew Suarez (6-9, 4.19 ERA) who gave up no runs off two hits over seven innings, while striking out five and walking none. It was his second straight outing in which he’s gone seven innings without allowing a run and to go along with his respectable ERA, Suarez also sports a sharp 1.27 WHIP and 113/34 K/W over 133.1 innings of work.

The home side counters with Antonio Senzatela (4-5, 4.88) who gave up one run over six innings in a loss to San Diego on Friday. In his previous start he was rocked for seven runs over four innings. So far Senzatela has an unimpressive ERA, to go along with a poor 1.37 WHIP and 46 K’s over 62.2 innings of work.

For the most MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing.

Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Senzatela is getting far too much respect from the oddsmakers in my opinion. Play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry 

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chicago White Sox (8:10 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. 

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Jordan Zimmermann (6-6, 4.22 ERA) who gave up four runs off three hits with one walk over six innings in a no-decision to the Yankees on Friday. Zimmermann for the most part has been a disappointment, especially on the road where he’s just 2-3 with a 4.91 ERA.

The home side counters with Michael Kopech (1-0, 0.82) who gave up one hit while striking out one over three scoreless innings in a rain-shortened outing against Boston on Friday. 

Koepech comes in rested (second straight rain-shortened outing) and on top form and I look for him to easily out-duel the “on again, off again” Zimmermann, who has been downright terrible on the road.

Lay the price, play on the White Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the LA Dodgers (7:35 EST).

As good as Zach Wheeler has been of late, I think he’ll finally stumble in this difficult venue and against this difficult opponent and counterpart.

Wheeler (9-7, 3.37 ERA) gave up one run off four hits over seven innings in an unfortunate loss to the Giants on Friday. Note though that he had zero strikeouts. 

Wheeler was just 3-7 with a 5.21 ERA last season, so clearly the fourth year pro has started to come into his own. Regardless, I think he’ll have his hands full here vs. the Dodgers’ Hyun Jin-Ryu.

Ryu is so far 4-1 with a 2.24 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits over seven innings while striking out five and walking none in a no-decision to Arizona on Friday. 

Over 52.1 innings of work Ryu has the sharp ERA and tiny 0.95 WHIP. Also note that Ryu is 3-1 with a 1.51 ERA t home.

I have a hard time seeing the anemic Mets’ mustering much offense tonight. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago White Sox 10* (8:10 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Francisco Liriano (3-9, 4.96 ERA) who most recently was rocked for five runs off seven hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Yanks on Thursday. After a promising Spring training, Liriano has been a major disappointment since, especially on the road with a 1-6, 4.94 ERA.

The home side counters with Lucas Giolito (10-9, 5.66) who gave up one run off two hits with eight K’s over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision against Boston on Thursday. 

In 47 innings since the All Star game Giolito has 47 K’s. 

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. 

Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Liriano could in fact be getting far too much respect from the oddsmakers tonight. Look for Giolito to continue his progression and lay the price with confidence. Play on the White Sox.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies 8* (7:10 EST).

Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Jake Arrieta (9-9, 3.54 ERA) who gave up four runs off four this with three strikeouts over four innings in a no-decision against Washington on Wednesday. 44 of the 75 pitches he threw were for strikes. Note that Arrieta owns a 7-5, 2.91 ERA in all evening games this year as well.

The home side counters with the volatile Trevor Richards (3-7, 4.26) who gave up three runs off three hits with two walks over 5.2 innings against Boston on Wednesday. The rookie has been decent this season and while he’s been better at home than on the road, note that he’s still just 1-4 with a 4.95 ERA in all night games.

I like the Phillies’ veteran here. Arrieta has the track record and pedigree to finish up the regular season strong and I look for him to make the most of this favorable matchup. Lay the price, play on the Phillies.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates 8* (7:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up.

The visitors hand the ball to Cody Reed (0-1, 3.26 ERA) who gave up one run over 4.2 innings in a no-decision to the Brewers on Thursday. He looked decent in the outing, but clearly the book is still out on the young right-hander as he tries to navigate his way through the end of the season.

The home side counters with Jose Musgrove (5-8, 3.80) who gave up five runs and struck out seven over six innings in a loss to the Cardinals on Thursday. It was likely his worst outing of the season and despite the shaky performance, he still sports an elite 80/21 K/W so far. 

Note as well that while he’s struggled in all day games (6.21 ERA), Musgrove has been sharp in all night contests (2.58).

Bank on Musgrove calmly getting back on track in familiar surroundings and for the Pirates to provide the rest in this favorable matchup. Lay the price, play on Pittsburgh.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Dodgers (8:10 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Jacob deGrom (8-8, 1.68 ERA) who continues to dominate on a night in and night out basis. Clearly he’s pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate, but as is so often the case, I think deGrom will struggle with run support again in this one.

And that’s because the home side goes with Alex Wood (8-6, 3.42) who comes in off back-to-back gems and who seems to be getting stronger as the season wears on. Note that Wood is 6-5 with a 2.59 ERA in all night games.

Note as ell that New York is a poor 2-7 in its last nine night road games as an underdog in the -125 to -175 range.

deGrom throws another strong outing, but it’s not enough as Wood matches pace. Lay the price, play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the New York Yankees (4:05 EST).

I think the hard-hitting visiting side offers great value in this spot.

The Yanks hand the ball to CC Sabathia (7-5, 3.36 ERA) who looked decent in his first start back from the DL vs. the Orioles on Friday. And overall this year Sabathia has once again looked strong, especially in all day games with a 2-1, 2.09 ERA record thus far.

The home side counters with Trevor Cahill (5-3, 3.60) who for the most part has been excellent this season, but who comes in off a poor start his last time out.

While the veteran has exceeded expectations to this point for the A’s, note that Oakland is still a poor 1-7 in its last eight day home games in which it’s a favorite in the +100 to +125 range.

I’m banking on Sabathia out-duelling Cahill and I look for the visitors to take take advantage. Play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Philadelphia Phillies (1:10 EST).

I think that this is a bigger mismatch on the mound that what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Vince Velasquez (9-9, 4.05 ERA) who comes in off a gem against the Jays on Sunday, allowing two runs off three hits while striking out six over five innings in the victory. Over 129 innings he owns a 1.26 WHIP and 142/53 K/W. Note that he’s been especially good on the road with a sharp 2.99 ERA as well.

The home side counters with the volatile Jose Urena (4-12, 4.56) who has been re-activated after his six game suspension. Urena has likely pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate, but he’s still not been spectacular. Note as well that he’s just 1-9 with a 4.95 ERA at home.

When trying to properly assess a starter, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. 

Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Velasquez will easily be able to out duel Urena, who will be on a count in his first start back. Great price, play on the Phillies.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (4:10 EST).

I think that Clay Buchholz and the hard-hitting visiting side have much more than just a “punchers” chance in this one.

Buchholz (7-2, 2.07 ERA) Comes in off back to back gems, moving his WHIP to a tiny 1.09. The veteran has been a revelation and note that he’s 4-2 with a 1.73 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Walker Buehler (6-4, 3.02) who comes in off a decent outing against the Rangers last week, but who comes in with a poor 5.97 ERA in all day contests to this point.

I’ll point out as well that Arizona is now 8-2 in its last ten National League road day games in which it’s an underdog in the +125 to +150 range.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oakland A’s (4:05 EST).

One of these veterans has been exceptional all year, while the other has struggled from the “get go.” Suffice it to say, I think this trend continues here.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Felix Hernandez (8-12, 5.49 ERA) who has been more “miss” than “hit” this year and who has been downright awful on the road with a 4-7, 6.95 ERA to this point.

The home side counters with the steady Edwin Jackson (4-3, 3.03) who likely is pitching “over his head” right now, but regardless of that, note that he’s 3-2 with a tiny 2.68 ERA at home this year.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by these two pitchers suggests that Hernandez is in fact getting too much respect considering how terrible he’s been on the road. Lay the price with confidence, play on the A’s.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs 8* (1:35 EST).

A couple of red-hot starters go head-to-head in this one and I’m banking on the visitors scoring a minor upset here against the white hot Aaron Nola.

And that’s because Chicago hands the ball to the equally as scorching Jon Lester (14-5, 3.67 ERA) who comes in off back-to-back strong outings, albeit a no-decision against the Mets in his last one.

Lester though has been unstoppable on the road this season with the 9-2, 2.95 ERA record thus far.

Nola (15-3, 2.10) comes in off consecutive strong outings against the Nationals and he is a prime candidate for Cy Young this season. It’s hard to say anything negative about Nola, so I won’t bother.

I simply feel that Lester can match Nola inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel that the value swings to the hungry dog. Play on the Cubs.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:15 EST).

The Cards hammered the Reds 12-5 yesterday and I think a similar final result is in store on Saturday as well.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Luis Castillo (7-11, 5.07 ERA) who after a great stretch of posting a 2.10 ERA over five starts, took a step back in his last outing against the Cubs on the road. And now here’s another difficult National League road venue to contend with, as note that Castillo is a poor 2-7 with a 6.55 ERA away from friendly confines thus far.

The home side counters with Daniel Poncedeleon (0-0 2.08) who has been effective in both his time in Triple-A and in the big leagues. Over 92 innings with Memphis this year he posted a 9-3 record, a 2.15 ERA and a .198 BAA.

I’ll point out as well that Cincinnati is a horrible 21-40 (-14.6 units) this season against the division, while St. Louis is 37-27 (+7.2 units) in the same position.

I think Castillo’s struggles on the road continue and I look for the young Poncedeleon to make the most of this opportunity.

Play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST).

Zack Wheeler has been “lights out” for the Mets of late, but I think he’ll finally stumble in this difficult venue.

Wheeler (9-6, 3.46 ERA) went seven scoreless in a victory over Washington on Saturday. Wheeler has been exceptional overall this year, but I’ll point out that the Mets are a horrible 14-21 (-8.3 units) against southpaws this season.

San Francisco is just 67-68 overall this season, but it’s 38-28 (+6.4 units) at home. Southpaw Andrew Suarez (5-9, 4.42) comes in off his best start of the year, allowing three hits with three walks over seven scoreless in a victory over the Rangers on Saturday. 

It was the second time in his last three trips to the hill that Suarez has blanked his opponent. The rookie’s been far from perfect this season, but he’s been at his best at home, as evidenced by his very respectable 3.19 ERA thus far.

I like the Giants and Suarez in this slight upset spot, as regression seems imminent for the over-achieving Wheeler. Play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Oakland A’s (10:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. 

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Leake (8-8, 4.03 ERA) who comes in off a loss to Arizona on Sunday after allowing five earned runs off seen hits over six innings. Leake has been above average overall, but not spectacular whatsoever (especially in all night games where he’s just 4-5 with a 4.96 ERA.)

The home side counters with Mike Fiers (10-6, 3.15) who continues to dominate for the A’s since coming over from the Tigers. Fiers is now 7-2 with a 2.49 ERA in all home situations and I see no reason to believe that he’s slowing down any time soon.

I think that it’s actually Leake that’s getting far too much respect here. Lay this price with confidence, play on the Athletics.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST).

I don’t think the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Jameson Taillon (10-9, 3.49 ERA) who has been solid overall this year and who is difficult to say anything negative about. Taillon’s been fantastic, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. 

I like the Braves to bounce back here after yesterday’s 5-4 home loss to the Cubs. Anibal Sanchez (6-5, 3.05 ERA) gets the nod and he most recently gave up one run off four hits with two walks over six innings in a win over Miami on Saturday. Sanchez exited with a ham string issue, but he’s been given the green light to go tonight and I think he’ll take advantage of familiar surroundings.

Note that Pittsburgh is just 31-36 this season after a loss, while Atlanta is 35-23 (+11.5 units) in the same position.

I look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Atlanta.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oakland A’s. 10* (10:05 EST).

I don’t think that that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. 

The visitors hand the ball to Wade LeBlanc (7-3, 3.92 ERA) who went six innings and gave up one in a no-decision to the Diamondbacks on Saturday. Note though that prior to that LeBlanc had been rocked for 15 earned runs over 20 innings. 

The home side counters with the capable Frankie Montas (5-3, 3.75) who has been called back up to the big leagues to make this start. Montas has excelled in the majors when given the opportunity this year and there’s no reason no to think that the hard-throwing right-hander won’t be able to to carry that momentum over here as well (note that he’s 3-0 with a with a 3.14 ERA in all night games as well this year.) 

I’ll point out that Seattle is just 11-14 in August right now, while Oakland is surging in the other direction with a 17-7 record so far this month. 

Look for Montas to once again make the most of the opportunity presented to him. Play on the A’s. 

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST

Here’s another matchup on the mound where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Montgomery (4-4, 3.62 ERA) who returns from the ten-day DL to make this start. Overall Montgomery’s been sharp for Chicago, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

The home side counters with Mike Foltynewicz (10-8, 2.67) who took a loss against the Marlins on Friday despite allowing just one run off two hits over six innings while striking out eight. 

Foltynewicz has arguably been the hottest pitcher in all of baseball of late, having posted a 1.38 ERA and a strong 36/8 K/W over 32.2 innings in August. 

And note that he’s been particularly dominant at home with the 4-2, 2.63 ERA to this point.

I think Montgomery comes in under a pitch count and that leaves the door open for Foltynewicz to continue his stellar surge in friendly confines. All things considered, a great price. Play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals 8* (7:15 EST).

Here’s a matchup where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor.

The visitors hand the ball to Joe Musgrove (5-7, 3.56 ERA) who comes in off a poor outing against the Brewers on Friday, allowing four runs off six hits over four innings. 

The home side counters with John Gant (5-5, 3.56) who hasn’t been perfect this year, but he does own a very respectable ERA to to go along with a 1.23 WHIP over 84 innings of work.

Gant has been at his best at home as well with a 3.15 ERA to this point.

I’ll point out as well that St. Louis is 7-2 in its last nine night home games as a favorite in the -125 to -150 range. I’m banking on Gant out-duelling Musgrove. Play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Zack Godley (13-7, 4.59 ERA) who was rocked for five earned runs off seven hits with five innings in a loss to the Mariners on Friday. To go along with his bloated ERA, he also sports a poor 1.45 WHIP (also a ballooned 5.75 ERA away from friendly confines.)

The home side counters with the red hot Dereck Rodriguez (6-1, 2.30) who returns from the 10-day DL after a minor hamstring issue. Note that since the All Star Game Rodriguez has posted a tiny 1.35 ERA, 0.66 WHIP and 28 K’s over 33.1 innings of work.

Note as well that Rodriguez is a perfect 4-0 with a 2.01 ERA at home.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. 

Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Godley is getting far too much respect in my opinion. Great value, play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST).

I think that Sean Newcomb and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this spot.

The visitors hand the ball to Diego Castillo (3-2, 3.23 ERA) who has looked pretty good so far in his short time in the big leagues. Note that Castillo is expected to be on a pitch count today (as he has been in each of his appearances.)

Newcomb (11-6, 3.57) most recently comes in off a win against Miami on Thursday, striking out eight over six scoreless innings. He’s slowing down a little after his blistering start to the 2018 campaign, but a date against the light hitting Rays in this spot is just what the doctor ordered to keep the momentum rolling, as note that he’s 8-3 with a 2.77 ERA in all night games so far this season.

I’ll point out as well that Tampa is a horrible 2-8 in its last ten night interleague road games in which it’s an underdog in the +125 to +175 range.

Lay the price with confidence, play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Gio Gonzalez (7-11, 4.35 ERA) who gave up one run off seven hits over seven innings in a loss to the Mets on Friday. Note that since the beginning of June Gonzalez is just 1-9 over 15 starts. Additionally note that he’s just 3-7 with a 4.35 ERA on the road.

Jake Arrieta (9-9, 3.37) gets the nod for the home side and he most recently comes in off a couple of solid outings. Clearly Arrieta hasn’t recaptured his 2015 form, but he’s been solid for his new team, especially at home where he owns a sharp 2.68 ERA thus far.

Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is 7-2 in its last nine home night games in which it’s a favorite in the -105 to -135 range. 

I’m banking on Arrieta continuing his strong play at home and I look for the Phillies to provide the rest. Play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Kansas City Royals (2:15 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Michael Fulmer (3-9, 4.32 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing against the White Sox in his last start. 

But decent starts have been few and far between for the Tigers’ right-hander, who owns an unimpressive 1.33 WHIP and only 93 K’s over 112 innings of work.

Note as well that Fulmer owns a poor 5.71 ERA on the road this season.

The home side counters with Danny Duffy (7-11, 4.85) who gave up two earned runs off six hits while striking out seven over five innings in a no-decision to Tampa Bay on Thursday. 

Like his counterpart today, Duffy has been a disappointment this season, but note that the Royals have excelled in this spot of late, going 5-1 in their last six day home games in which they’re a favorite in the +105 to +125 range.

Look for Duffy to build off his latest performance and find a way to get the job done in front of the home town crowd. Play on Kansas City.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals 10* (8:15 EST).

Here’s a matchup where I believe that the home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor.

The visitors hand the ball to Ivan Nova (7-8, 4.20 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits over six innings in a no-decision to the Braves on Tuesday. Nova’s been decent of late, but note that he still owns a poor 5.78 ERA on the road. 

The home side counters with Jack Flaherty (7-6, 2.97) who comes in off back to back strong outings and who sports a sharp 134:37 K/BB over 20 starts this year. Also note that Flaherty has a highly respectable 2.91 ERA in all home games thus far.

Additionally note that Pittsburgh is already a poor 6-14 (-5.2 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while St. Louis is surging right now, 19-5 (+15.5 units) in the month of August thus far.

Suffice it to say, I look for the Cards to carry that momentum over here in this favorable matchup. Lay the price play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers 8* (7:10 EST).

Ultimately I don’t think that this match up on the mound is as even as the oddsmakers would like us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Junior Guerra (6-8, 3.72 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing against these very Reds in his last start on Tuesday. Guerra surely hasn’t been perfect this year, but note that he comes in sporting a very respectable 3.41 ERA In all night games.

The home side goes with Anthony DeSclafani (6-4, 4.26) who has looked decent of late, but who has been consistently inconsistent in this spot all year by posting a very pedestrian 4.91 ERA in all night contests.

And that doesn’t bode well for DeSclafani, as note that the Brewers are a massive 52-28 (+23.6 units) this year in all “night” games. Conversely note that the Reds are a poor 33-45 (-4.3 units) in all night contests thus far.

All things considered, I think this line could easily be a lot larger. Play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry 

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals 8* (7:05 EST).

These two squared off last week and it was Aaron Nola and the Phillies who came out on top of the low-scoring 2-0 pitchers duel. Suffice it to say, I like Max Scherzer and the Nationals to get their revenge in Philadelphia Tuesday.

Scherzer (16-6, 2.13 ERA) gave up those two runs off two hits over seven innings last week, also going on to strike out ten. Over 181 innings this year Scherzer owns an elite 244/45 K/W and note that he’s been particularly sharp on the road by going 8-3 with a 1.82 ERA thus far.

Nola (15-3, 2.13) went eight shutout innings against Washington last week. It’s hard to say anything negative about Nola, so I won’t even bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

As note that Philadelphia is a horrible 25-26 (-4.8 units) this year against division opponents, while Washington is 7-2 in its last nine road games in which the money line in the contest is set between +125 to -125. 

Revenge is a dish best served cold. Play on the Nationals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New York Mets (8:05 EST).

After getting trounced 15-0 at home by the Nationals, I expect the Mets to wake up and respond in the opener of this three-game National League series.

The visitors hand the ball to Noah Syndergaard (9-3, 3.38 ERA) who looked dominant in a win over the Giants on Wednesday. He hasn’t been perfect this season, but note that he’s 4-2 with a highly respectable 3.32 ERA on the road this year.

The home side counters with Jon Lester (14-5, 3.64) who gave up one run over 5.2 innings in a victory over the Tigers on Wednesday. Lester has the winning 5-3 record at home, but note he owns a very pedestrian 4.45 ERA in “The Friendly Confines.”

I look for Syndergaard to continue his strong play at home and for New York to play with a little pride after last night’s shellacking. Play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Washington Nationals (7:05 EST).

These starters faced off in Washington last week and it was Zach Eflin who got the better of Stephen Strasburg, who made his first start in over a month after a neck injury. With a chance to exact a little immediate revenge, I look for Strasburg to get back on track here.

Strasburg (6-7, 4.23 ERA) gave up five runs off seven hits while striking out five in the no-decision over five innings against the Phillies on Wednesday. 

He has to be feeling confident though that he can bounce back here as he’s 4-2 with a 2.33 ERA on the road this season, compared to only 2-5 with a 5.68 ERA at home.

Eflin (9-4, 3.93) has been sharp overall this year and he’s been better at home than on the road, but I still don’t think it’ll be enough against a Nationals team which is 8-2 in its last ten after scoring 14 or more runs in its previous contest (just beat the Mets 15-0 yesterday afternoon), while Philadelphia is a poor 1-7 in its last eight night home games as an underdog in the +100 to +125 range.

Lay the price, play on Washington.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Sam Gaviglio (3-6, 4.95 ERA) who gave up two runs while striking out seven and walking one in a win over these very Orioles on Tuesday. 

The home side counters with the volatile David Hess (2-8, 5.50) who gave up one run over seven innings in a loss to the Jays on Wednesday. Despite the decent outing, the 25-year old owns a poor 5.50 ERA and shoddy 5.9 K/9. 

And unfortunately for Hess a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as note that the rookie is just 1-3 with a 6.14 ERA at home. 

Note as well that Toronto is a solid 46-39 (+8.6 units) this season against right-handed starters, while Baltimore is just 22-65 (-37.8 units) in the same position. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Jays.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels 10* (4:05 EST).

I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the hungry underdog home side.

The visitors hand the ball to Framber Valdez (1-0, 0.00 ERA) who posted a victory in his major-league debut on Tuesday against Seattle, giving up one run over 4.1 innings. Valdez looked decent, but clearly he faces a difficult task in this tough venue.

The home side counters with Felix Pena (1-3, 4.53) who comes in off a great start against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, giving up four runs off seven hits with two walks while striking out 12 over six innings. Pena has looked sharp of late and I don’t think there’s any reason not to believe that he can’t carry that momentum over here.

I think Valdez is getting far too much respect in this spot. Great value, play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies 8* (3:10 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Austin Gomber (3-0, 2.98 ERA) who overall has been fantastic in his limited time, but who comes in off a bit of a shaky outing against the Dodgers. If the rookie’s had one small weakness it’s been his play on the road where he owns a rather pedestrian 4.01 ERA.

The home side counters with Tyler Anderson (6-6, 4.45) who gave up four runs while striking out eight and walking zero over 6.1 innings in a loss to the Padres on Tuesday. While his ERA is nothing to write home about, note that his peripherals (1.25 WHIP and .241 opponent batting average) are both extremely solid.

Also note that Anderson owns a highly respectable 3.45 ERA at Coors Field.

And finally note that St. Louis is a poor 20-25 (-5.6 units) this year already in all road games when the money line in the contest is between +125 and -125.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers 8* (2:10 EST)

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular selection. 

The visitors hand the ball to Chris Archer (4-6, 4.41 ERA) who left his last start with a leg injury. It was just a precautionary measure and he was looking good before being pulled over five innings vs. the Braves on Monday. 

Archer though is a poor 4-5 with a 4.56 ERA on the road this season.

The home side counters with Chase Anderson (8-7, 3.92 ERA) who gave up two runs and no walks while striking out six over six innings in a victory over Cincinnati on Monday. After a sluggish patch, Anderson has gotten back on track and I think he carries that momentum over here. 

Additionally I’ll point out that Milwaukee has been money in the bank all year long for bettors in this spot, going 16-4 (+10.2 units) as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while conversely, the Pirates have been destroyed in this position all season by going just 5-14 (-6.5 units) as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Colorado Rockies (8:10 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to John Gant (5-5, 3.75 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits with two walks while striking out one over 4.1 innings in a loss to Milwaukee on Sunday. His numbers look decent, but note that he’s managed to complete six innings only twice in his past nine starts. Also note that he’s just 1-1 with a 4.75 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with German Marquez (11-9, 4.42) who comes in off back-to-back strong outings and who is a highly respectable 7-3 with a 3.86 ERA in all night games.

I’ll point out as well that St. Louis is already a poor 19-25 (-6.6 units) this in all road games when the total in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Colorado is 18-13 this season in all home games when the total in the game falls in the same range.

I think Gant takes a step back in this difficult venue. Lay the price, play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Milwaukee Brewers (7:10 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Jameson Taillon (9-9, 3.58 ERA) who gave up one run off five hits over six innings in a no-decision to the Cubs on Sunday. Overall Taillon has been as solid as Pittsburgh could have possibly asked for this year, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight.

The home side counters with Jhoulys Chacin (13-4, 3.58) who gave up four hits over six shutout frames in a victory over St. Louis on Sunday. Chacin comes in on top form, having won six straight and his 13 victories rank sixth overall in the National League.

I’ll point out as well that Pittsburgh is just 28-31 on the road this year, while Milwaukee is 38-25 (+8.2 units) at home.

I like Chacin to continue his incredibly hot play in front of the home town crowd. Play on Milwaukee.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New York Mets (4:05 EST).

I think Zach Wheeler is going to out-duel Tanner Roark at home this afternoon.

Roark (8-12, 4.05 ERA) has been hit-or-miss this year as evidenced by his record and ERA. Note that he’s 4-6 with 4.01 ERA on the road. 

Wheeler (8-6, 3.63) gave up one run over seven innings while striking out ten in an unfortunate no-decision against San Francisco on Monday. He’s now posted a tiny 0.92 ERA and elite 40/7 K/W over his last five starts.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by Wheeler suggests that he’s in line for another dominant evening here. I look for that momentum to continue in this great value position. Play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the San Francisco Giants (4:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Martin Perez (2-5, 6.93 ERA) who comes in off back to back poor outings and who is a brutal 1-4 with a 7.01 ERA on the road. Perez has been consistently inconsistent all season and I don’t think there’s any reason to expect anything different here either.

The home side counters with Andrew Suarez (4-9, 4.68) who enters with a respectable 1.25 WHIP so far this year. The rookie is going through growing pains (understandably), but note that he’s been at his best at home with a very respectable 3.49 ERA thus far.

I’ll point out as well that Texas is just 16-21 (-3.5 units) in all “day” games this year, while San Francisco is 26-18 (+13.2 units) in the same position.

I think Suarez easily gets the better of Perez. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Drew Hutchinson (2-2, 5.71 ERA) who made his third start for the Rangers last Friday against the Angels, giving up two runs off five hits over five innings in the victory. Over three starts though he’s posted a poor 5.71 ERA and 27/21 K/W over 34.2 innings of work.

The home side counters with Derek Rodriguez (6-1, 2.25) who has been cleared to go here after a minor hamstring issue. Over five starts since the All Star game he’s posted a 1.35 ERA and a minuscule 0.66 WHIP with 28 K’s spanning 33.1 innings of work.

I believe Hutchinson will take a major step back in this difficult venue and under the National League format. Play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals 9* (8:40 EST).

I like Miles Mikolas to continue his progression and to get the better of his counterpart Antonio Senzatela on Friday night.

Mikolas (13-3, 2.80 ERA) most recently gave up one run over six innings in a victory over the Brewers on Saturday, allowing five hits, walking and none and striking out seven. Note that he enters 7-0 with a 3.47 ERA on the road.

Senzatela (4-3, 4.47) returned from injury against the Braves on Saturday to make his first start since early August and he’d give up two runs over five innings. 

Senztela has surprisingly been better at home than on the road, but note that the Rockies are a poor 2-8 in their last ten home games when the line in the contest is set between -125 and +125.

Great value on the “better” pitcher. Play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers 8* (8:10 EST).

Here’s a match-up where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. 

The visitors hand the ball to Joe Musgrove (5-7, 3.31 ERA) who has been “on again, off again” with his performances of late. 

The home side counters with Wade Miley (2-2, 2.18) who for the most part has looked extremely sharp for Milwaukee in his limited time. Note that he has a very respectable 1.25 WHIP and a tiny 1.69 ERA in all night games.

I’ll point out as well that Pittsburgh is just 16-22 (-6.8 units) this year against southpaws, while Milwaukee is 15-4 (+9.2 units) this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. 

Bank on Miley outlasting Musgrove and lay this very reasonable price. Play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals 8* (7:10 EST). 

While neither of these starters instils much confidence, I absolutely believe that this one favors Gio Gonzalez and the hard-hitting visiting side.

Gonzalez (7-10, 4.51 ERA) has not been at his best since the All Star break. He’s off back to back sub-par outings, but I still think the veteran will step up and take advantage of this favorable matchup.

Despite all of his struggles this year, there’s no question that he catches a break tonight facing confirmed “gas can” Jason Vargas (3-8, 7.67) who remains in the Mets rotation right now out of necessity, due to so many injuries. 

I’ll point out as well that the home field advantage has been anything but for Vargas this season, who is just 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA in New York.

Washington is 126-80 against the division the last three years, while New York is just 101-103 (-22.7 units) in the same position.

I look for Washington to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Oakland Athletics (8:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Cahill (5-2, 3.12 ERA) who enters off a gem against Houston Saturday, giving up zero runs over seven innings while striking out seven in the victory. Over 86.2 innings the veteran now has a 3.12 ERA and a sharp 1.04 WHIP to go along with 85 K’s.

The home side goes with Kohl Stewart (0-1, 7.71) who gave up three runs off eight hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Tigers in his MLB debut last week. Stewart was then sent down to Triple-A, but he’s been called up to make this difficult start against the red hot A’s line-up.

I’ll point out as well that Oakland is 14-8 in its last 22 night road games in which its a favorite in the -125 to -150 range. 

This line could easily be a lot larger in my opinion. Play on the A’s.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Philadelphia Phillies (1:05 EST).

It’s impossible to say anything negative about either of these starters. I simply feel that Aaron Nola is going to be able to match Max Scherzer inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the under-valued underdog.

Nola (14-3, 2.24 ERA) comes in off another gem, giving up one run off three hits while striking out 11 over seven innings. The hard-throwing right-hander is putting together a career campaign and enters with a  0.98 WHIP and 160/44 K/W over 161 frames of work.

Scherzer (16-5, 2.11) most recently went six scoreless against the Marlins on Friday. Scherzer has 234 K’s over 174.2 innings, but note that the Nationals are just 3-8 in their last 11 home day games as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range.

Play on Philadelphia and the red hot Aaron Nola on Thursday afternoon.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (10:10 EST).

Here’s another one where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Joe Flaherty (7-6, 3.05 ERA) who has been solid overall this season, but who faces a red hot counterpart in Walker Buehler (6-4, 3.19 ERA) who comes in off back-to-back strong outings and who owns an elite 1.01 WHIP so far. 

Buehler has been especially tough at home as well with the 2.17 ERA to this point.

I’ll point out as well that the Dodgers are 7-3 in their last ten home night games in which they’re a favorite in the -150 to -175 range.

I look for Buehler to edge out Flaherty on Wednesday night. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians 8* (7:10 EST).

Ultimately I think that this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The Tribe hand the ball to Carlos Carrasco (15-6, 3.33 ERA) who went seven scoreless in a win over the Orioles on Friday, giving up three hits and striking out six in the commanding effort. He’s now posted six straight quality outings with a 1.33 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and a 49/5 K/W spanning 40.2 innings.

The home side goes with Brian Johnson (4-3, 4.00) who gave up three runs off five hits while striking out two over five innings in a win over Tampa Bay on Friday. Johnson’s made the most of his time in the starting rotation, but I still think he’s in over his head here.

Carrasco has arguably been the best pitcher in all of MLB over the last month and I think he’s being severely undervalued in this spot.

I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is 7-2 in its last nine as a road favorite in the -120 to -175 range. Great price in my professional opinion, play on the Indians.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates 8* (7:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up. 

The visitors hand the ball to Julio Teheran (8-7, 4.24 ERA) who has been more “miss” than “hit” this season. Teheran has been serviceable at best and note that he’s been at his worst on the road with a 4-5, 4.93 ERA.

The home side goes with Trevor Williams (10-9, 3.53) who has been decent overall and who has been particularly sharp of late. Williams has been solid at home as well with a sharp 3.13 ERA. 

Teheran’s road struggles come back to haunt him here, while I look for Williams to continue his steady form in friendly confines. Lay the very reasonable price, play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Chicago White Sox (2:10 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors go with Kyle Gibson (7-9, 3.51 ERA) who gave up three runs over seven innings with five strikeouts and three walks in a win over these very White Sox on Friday. Gibson has been decent of late, but note that he’s still just 1-3 with a 4.01 ERA in all day games.

The home side counters with Carlos Rodon (4-3, 2.69) who gave up three runs while striking out six over eight innings in a win over Detroit on Wednesday. Over the last six weeks he’s gone 3-0 with a 1.60 ERA and 0.93 WHIP spanning seven starts.

Gibson has likely thrown better than what his win/loss record would indicate this season, but Rodon has arguably been the best pitcher in the entire league over the last month and a half. 

I’m banking on Rodon continuing that progression in friendly confines. Great price, play on the White Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the LA Angels (9:40 EST).

Patrick Corbin has been no slouch this year and he comes in on top form. But I think that Felix Pena and the hard-hitting Angels have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one.

Pena (1-3, 4.35 ERA) gave up one run off two hits with four walks while striking out seven over six innings in a victory over San Diego on Wednesday. Pena would go on to fire first-pitch strikes to 17 of 23 batters and induce 14 swing and misses. Over his last 17 innings of work he’s given up five runs with 12 strikeouts. 

Note as well that Pena owns a 1.31 ERA on the road this year.

It’s impossible to say anything negative about Corbin, as he’s won four straight and been consistent all year. I simply feel however that Pena is going to match Corbin inning for inning tonight and in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the dangerous underdog. 

Play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry