My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Boston Red Sox (7:05 EST).

After taking four straight from the Yanks, the surging Red Sox will now look to complete the three-game sweep of the Orioles.

With Toronto having already taken two of three from Seattle, the Orioles’ chances in the division are all but done. I’m not predicting any sort of a revenge scenario today as I think the deflated home side is ripe for the picking.

The visitors hand the ball to Clay Buchholz (7-10, 5.20 ERA) who will look to keep the momentum rolling after allowing two runs off seven hits and two walks in a 7-4 victory over New York on Friday. Buchholz has been consistently inconsistent all year, but he’s been better of late, posting a 4.08 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over the last couple of months, compared to 5.91 and 1.49 respectively over the first half of the season.

The home side counters with Ubaldo Jimenez (7-11, 5.94), who like Buchholz, has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned this year. After tossing three straight quality starts, he most recently was shelled for four runs on Friday. 

Note that home field advantage has been anything but for Jimenez this season as well, posting a deplorable 6.27 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far.

And that’s music to this potent Red Sox line-up, which will continue to push hard to create as much distance as possible. All signs point to another lop-sided destruction, great value on the visitors again tonight. Play on Boston.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Toronto Blue Jays (3:40 EST).

As far as Toronto and its contingent of Canadian fans are concerned, it’s time to break out the brooms and sweep-it-up in the Pacific Northwest this afternoon.

Thousands of fans from the Vancouver area of British Columbia have flocked down to Seattle to support the Blue Jays in this important series, and the visitors haven’t disappointed by posting two straight victories.

I’ve played Toronto in both games and I think the surging Jays will complete the sweep this afternoon.

Aaron Sanchez (13-2, 3.17 ERA) gets the call for Toronto, whose last start was skipped over because of a blister issue that he suffered in a loss to Boston ten days ago. Duds like that have been few and far between for Sanchez this season though, note that he’s 8-1 with a tiny 2.62 ERA on the road thus far.

The home side counters with Felix Hernandez (11-6, 3.79) who gave up six runs off eight hits, including two dingers, over 4.1 innings in a loss to Houston on Friday. It was the second time in three starts this month that he’s allowed multiple homers. “The King” has now been shelled for at least five earned runs in three of his last four starts. Note that his 1.2 HR/9, 3.9 W/9 and 7.3 K/9 are all career worsts.

Toronto’s big bats woke up yesterday and that’s bad news for the volatile Hernandez. Sanchez gets a big nod today against the offensively challenged Mariners and in my opinion, this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” Play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Houston Astros (3:35 EST).

I had a pick on the Astros yesterday and I think the playoff hopeful visitors will find a way to take the finale of this series as well, in what sets up to be another very favorable matchup for them.

The visitors hand the ball to Collin McHugh (11-10, 4.66 ERA), who is surging to the finish line after a mediocre first 3/4’s of the season. Most recently he fired seven shutout innings in a 6-0 win over Seattle on Friday, giving up two hits and striking out six. Over his last four starts he’s gone 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. 

The home side counters with Daniel Mengden (2-7, 5.68), who is poised for a letdown after his best start of his pro career, going seven shutout innings in a 14-5 win over Kansas City on Thursday. Mengden was brutal over his first few starts and has seemingly turned things around, however I think immediate regression is inevitable and note that he’s 0-6 with a deplorable 6.95 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

I don’t think that the oddsmakers are giving McHugh enough respect in this matchup, considering his recent form, but also his past success in this position, as note that he’s 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA in eight career matchups with Oakland. 

He’s also an amazing 10-0 with a very respectable 3.08 ERA in his last 12 starts in the month of September since 2014 (is 2-0 with a 3.31 ERA this year). 

I think the writing is on the wall and a no-doubt, wire-to-wire victory is in the cards. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (10:10 EST).

I had a play on Toronto as a slight dog yesterday. I like the hard-hitting visitors today as well as slight favs.

Toronto hands the ball to ace JA Happ (19-4, 3.27 ERA), who looks to earn his 20th win of the season tonight. Happ most recently earned his 19th victory of the 2016 campaign by giving up two runs (one earned) off three hits over six innings against the Angels on Thursday. Happ’s been far from perfect this year, but the crafty veteran continues to get the job done. Note that he’s 8-2 with a 3.46 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Hisashi Iwakuma (16-11, 3.87), who has won his last two starts after a brutal month of August. 

Iwakuma has gotten better as the season has progressed, but I’m giving the slight nod to Happ in this spot, as his long-term consistency in these situations will prove to be the the difference. All things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting a great price on Toronto again tonight.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (10:05 EST).

I like the Astros to build off yesterday’s 4-3 win as they continue their hunt for a wild card spot.

The visitors hand the ball to Joe Musgrove (3-4, 4.71 ERA) who comes in off a gem against Texas on Wednesday, allowing three runs off five hits and two walks over seven innings. The rookie has now posted two straight quality outings and if history is any precedence, then Musgrove has to be loving his chances today as when he faced Oakland back on August 29th, he’d hold it scoreless over six innings of work.

The home side counters with the volatile Sean Manaea (6-9, 4.23), who makes his second start off the 15 day DL. Manaea has been better at home (3.26 ERA) than on the road (5.77), but note that he’s struggled in all “night” contests, going just 5-7 with a pedestrian 4.50 ERA.

Houston clinched a wild card spot on the final day of the regular season last year. The Astros sit three games behind the Jays and Orioles for the final spot in 2016, meaning that the team will need to string wins together immediately if it has any real shot at contention. 

I think Musgrove has the advantage over Manaea and look for the hungry visitors to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals (7:10 EST).

Despite facing Marlins’ ace Jose Fernandez, I think Washington bounces back after yesterday’s 4-3 setback.

The visitors hand the ball to Tanner Roark (15-8, 2.75 ERA), who could arguably be called the staff’s “ace” this year. Roark has exceeded expectations and he’ll now be looking to improve upon his already impressive 7-3, 3.09 ERA record on the road thus far.

Fernandez (15-8, 2.99) picked up a win despite not being his sharpest last time out, allowing four runs off six hits and two walks over seven innings against Atlanta on Wednesday. 

For arguments sake, let’s call the starters a “wash.” 

The visitors are the much more motivated side today though. Miami has been all but eliminated from post-season contention, with three other team’s ahead of it for the final wild card spot. Washington is eight games ahead of the Mets in the NL East, but the Nats have lost three straight and will be eager to stop the bleeding sooner rather than later.

Washington is headed to the postseason, but desperately wants to be “firing on all cylinders” when it does. I like Roark to match Fernandez and for the visitors to steal this one late, play on the Nationals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Toronto Blue Jays (10:10 EST).

Two teams fighting for a playoff spot collide on Monday night and I think that the hard-hitting Jays are the correct call in this one.

Toronto holds a two-game lead over Seattle in the AL wild-card standings. With a chance to put the Mariners’ hopes to rest, I think the Blue Jays answer the call in this series. 

The home side sends Taijuan Walker to the hill, he’s been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned. Despite back-to-back decent starts, note that Walker owns a pedestrian 4-5, 4.31 ERA at home this year.

The visitors counter with Marco Estrada (8-9, 3.78) who looks to get back on track after a couple of shaky outings. Estrada though has done very well in this spot all season, going 5-2 with a respectable 3.81 ERA on the road thus far.

Seattle managed to beat the Astros yesterday, but has been consistently inconsistent at the plate. Toronto dropped two of three in LA over the weekend, but I think bounces back here in what I feel to be a very favorable matchup. Play on the Blue Jays.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* SItuational Stunner is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:40 EST).

I’ve said it many times before, that ultimately I feel that MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I think that Carlos Martinez and the Cards should in fact be much larger favs.

Martinez (14-8, 3.15 ERA) has been better than St. Louis could have possibly asked for this year and has arguably become the team’s “ace.” Note that he’s been particularly effective in this spot all season as well, going 8-4 with a 3.10 ERA in all “night” games and an even better 8-1 with a 2.35 ERA on the road. 

Rookie Tyler Anderson (5-5, 3.65) gets the nod for the home side and he’s been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned. Most recently he gave up six runs off nine hits over just 4.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Diamondbacks on Monday. It was the sixth time in 17 starts that he’s allowed eight hits or more.

St. Louis trails San Francisco by one game in the hunt for the second wild card spot, so this is a game it can ill afford to “look past.” The Rockies on the other hand come off a very mentally satisfying three-game sweep of the Padres and are now primed for a classic letdown.

All things considered, I think this is a fantastic price, play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Kansas City Royals (2:15 EST).

The Royals smashed the White Sox 10-3 yesterday and I’m expecting the defending champs to carry that momentum over into the finale of this series.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Carlos Rodon (7-9, 4.04 ERA) who was shelled for six runs off nine hits and three walks over five innings in a setback to the Indians on Wednesday. Rodon has looked pretty good at times this year, but also pretty horrible in others. Note that he’s a sub-par 5-7 with a pedestrian 4.30 ERA in all “night” games thus far.

The home side counters with Yordano Ventura (10-11, 4.42) who comes in off a hard-fought loss on Friday, giving up four earned runs off ten hits over seven innings of work. Ventura looks to break into the win column today and improve upon his 6-4, 4.48 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

For arguments sake, lets call these starters a “wash.” The difference today is at the plate. Kansas City now looks to sweep this series and I think its red hot run with the big bats continues. All things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting a very fair price on the Royals this afternoon.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Houston Astros (4:10 EST).

I like the visitors to build off yesterday’s 2-1 victory, pulling even with the M’s in the AL wild-card race and with their sights now set on Toronto and Baltimore.

The Astros hand the ball to Doug Fister (12-11, 4.17 ERA) who has admittedly struggled of late. He’ll benefit greatly though from a Mariners line-up which has managed just one run in the first two games of this series.

Seattle counters with Ariel Miranda (4-1, 4.10), who has won each of his last three starts. Note though that the Mariners have struggled in this position all year, going just 10-14 (-6.4 units) at home with a money line in the -100 to -125 range.

And note that Houston has excelled in this spot, going 10-8 (+3.6 units) as a road dog in the +100 to +125 range. 

I think Fister gets back on track against his former team and the Astros take advantage of the M’s anemic line-up. Play on Houston.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Reds (1:10 EST).

I think the home side bounces back here after yesterday’s 10-4 setback and think that Dan Straily offers great value in this matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Ivan Nova (12-6, 4.03 ERA), who has thrown ridiculously well since being acquired from the Yanks, going 5-0 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in seven starts. Is this turn-around sustainable over the long-term? I think the answer is clearly “no.” Nova has been great for his new team, but regression is imminent in my professional opinion and despite the recent turn-around, note that he owns a poor 5.45 ERA on the road this season.

Straily (12-8, 3.81) has for the most part been a revelation for the Reds as well this year and this is a spot in which he’s excelled in, going a near-perfect 7-1 with a 2.80 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

I think Nova’s road struggles continue here and that Straily’s long-term and proven success at home ultimately proves to be the difference in the end. Great opportunity to pull the trigger on this slight home dog, play on Cincinnati.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (9:05 EST).

Analysis posted at least 3 hours before game time.

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Toronto Blue Jays (10:05 EST).

The Jays finally got off the schneid with a much needed victory after losing two straight at home to the lowly Rays and I think the hungry visitors will keep the momentum rolling this evening as well.

The visitors hand the ball to RA Dickey (9-14, 4.60 ERA) who returns to the rotation out of necessity as ace Aaron Sanchez is dealing with a blister. Dickey was supposed to be used in relief coming down the stretch, but he’ll look to earn another elusive victory and improve upon his very respectable 3.81 ERA road mark.

The home side counters with the equally as volatile Jered Weaver (11-11, 5.25) who comes in off a decent outing against the Rangers on Sunday, allowing two runs off four hits over 6.2 innings of work, lucky to escape with the stat line he did as both runs came off long-balls. Home runs have been a problem for Weaver this year, he’s given up 35 so far, the most in his career. 

Clearly that’s bad news facing the hard-hitting Jays’ lineup. Note that Weaver owns a poor 5.05 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season.

For arguments sake, lets call these pitchers a “wash.” Clearly Toronto has the advantage at the plate, as LA is limping to the finish line, depleted in so many different areas, I can’t see it putting up much of a fight tonight. Play on the Blue Jays.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the LA Dodgers (9:40 EST).

I think LA will bounce back tonight after yesterday’s defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Kenta Maeda (14-9, 3.28 ERA) who comes in off a loss despite a decent showing, giving up three runs off eight hits and a walk over six innings to Miami on Sunday. In his last seven outings he’s gone 5-2 with a very respectable 3.46 ERA. Also note that he’s 12-7 with a 3.35 ERA in all night games and 8-4 with a 3.26 ERA on the road thus far.

The home side counters with the volatile Zack Greinke (12-6, 4.54), who gave up three runs off six hits and four walks over six innings in a 5-3 loss to San Francisco on Sunday. The four walks were a sesaon high. It was a decent performance, but he was fresh off his worst outing of the year. Greinke has had a couple of gems this season, but has for the most part he’s been a big letdown for the Diamondbacks. Note that he owns a poor 5.08 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

Maeda has been rock solid on the road and I expect that trend to carry over here. Play on LA.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Chicago White Sox (8:15 EST).

The Royals come in off four straight deflating losses in a row to the lowly A’s, including an 8-0 shutout on Wednesday and a 14-5 beatdown on Thursday. And now here comes the crafty Chris Sale and the White Sox looking to deliver the knock out blow. In my professional opinion, this is indeed great line value today.

Sale (15-8, 3.03 ERA) lost 2-0 to the Royals on Sunday in Chicago and looks to get his revenge on a team that was just outscored 43-12 in four games. Note that Sale is among the best in the AL with 205 K’s, 15 victories, 201 2/3’s innings, .220 opponents batting average, 2.55 road ERA and 9.1 K’s per nine innings. 

The home side counters with Ian Kennedy (11-9, 3.62) who has been lights out since the start of August, going 5-0 with a 2.16 ERA, but who hasn’t really been at his best against the White Sox this year, going 1-1 with a 4.00 ERA in three starts. 

The Royals aren’t out of the playoffs yet, but I simply can’t see them picking up the pieces so quickly after getting hammered so soundly by Oakland. Chicago comes in off a 2-1 win over the Indians and I think it will find a way to get the job done this evening as well with its ace on the mound. Play on the White Sox.

Good luck….Larry

My 10* BLOWOUT OF THE MONTH is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST).

If Tampa Bay could play Toronto a few more times in a year, it would likely be vying for a playoff spot. For some reason the Rays seem to have the Blue Jays’ number this season, but they’ve struggled with most other clubs. 

After taking two of three in Toronto this week, I’m expecting the visitors to come up short tonight against the playoff hopeful Orioles.

While neither of these starters instills much confidence, I think Yovani Gallardo has the advantage.

The visitors hand the ball to Blake Snell (5-8, 3.62 ERA) who gave up three earned runs off six hits and three walks over just 2.2 innings in a 7-5 loss to the Yanks on Friday. Snell is just 1-3 in his last four outings and has seen his decent start to the season go down the proverbial crapper. Note that he’s a poor 1-4 with a 4.00 ERA on the road this year.

Gallardo (5-7, 5.44) had his last start skipped over, but previously looked decent by allowing two runs off five hits while striking out five over five innings in a victory over these very Rays on September 6th. Note that he’s 2-2 with a respectable 3.80 ERA at home this year.

The Orioles just took two of three in Boston and sit one game behind the Red Sox in the AL East. They’re also just one game ahead of Toronto, which is in LA to take on a depleted Angels team this weekend. 

Baltimore has struggled on the road this year, but is 45-25 at Camden Yards and I think it punches another one into the win column with a convincing victory over a satisfied Rays team which just goes through the motions tonight.

Play on the Orioles.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners.

I like Seattle to build off yesterday’s 8-0 victory in what I feel to be a much bigger pitching mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Hisashi Iwakuma (15-11, 3.96 ERA) who gave up two runs off seven hits over 6.2 innings in a win over Oakland on Friday. He’s been decent of late, allowing five runs over his last 13.2 innings spanning two starts. Note that he’s 11-5 with a 3.79 ERA in all “night” games this year as well.

The home side counters with the volatile Jhoulys Chacin (5-8, 5.63) who will make a spot start for an injured Tyler Skaggs. The veteran has been a shell of his former self this year and has been particularly horrible in all “night” games, going 4-7 with a 5.61 ERA.

Seattle looks to sweep the lowly Angels today as it desperately fights for the second AL Wild Card. The M’s are in the thick of the battle and this is a contest which they can clearly ill afford to let slip by. I think Iwakuma offers fantastic value in this matchup. Play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Texas Rangers (8:10 EST).

The Rangers held on for a 3-2 win yesterday and I think they carry that momentum over into the finale in what is another favorable matchup for them.

The visitors hand the ball to Derek Holland, who has been at his best whenever facing the Astros, going 5-2 with a 4.19 ERA in 12 career outings against them. And he’s been even better against them this year, going 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA in two outings thus far.

The home side counters with Joe Musgrove (2-4, 4.78) who comes in off a strong outing, giving up two runs off three hits over six innings innings in an unfortunate setback to the Cubs on Friday. I’ll caution in reading too much into the decent effort though, the rookie has predictably struggled in his limited time this year and in his previous start against these very Rangers he was blasted for five runs. I think his home/road ERA discrepancy will start to “even” out now (has 1.19 ERA at home and 8.71 ERA on the road). 

Houston is crushed after Texas rallied in the top of the ninth with two outs, while the Rangers look to win for a 16th time in the last 19 in this series. Play on the Texas.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (1:45 EST).

After grabbing the opener, the Cubs fell 4-2 in Game 2 yesterday. Suffice it to say, I think the visitors will find a way to get the job done in the finale of this important series and all things considered, do definitely feel we’re getting excellent value in this matchup.

Chicago sends Jon Lester (16-4, 2.51 ERA) to the hill, he comes in off a gem against Houston on Friday, going seven scoreless with seven K’s and zero walks. Lester would go on to give up just one extra-base hit and induce 13 swinging strikes. Over his last eight starts Lester is 6-0 with a minuscule 1.17 ERA. Note that he’s 8-2 with a 3.13 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Carlos Martinez (14-7, 3.05) who also comes in off a strong out against Milwaukee on Friday, giving up two runs over seven innings for the victory. Martinez has posted six straight quality outings and is 4-0 in that span. Surprisingly, if he’s had one “weak” area this year, it’s been his play in front of the home town crowd where he’s a pedestrian 6-6 with a 3.72 ERA.

Lester has arguably been the sharpest in the entire league over the last month and I think that intense focus and momentum gets carried over here. Martinez has been just average at home, which isn’t going to cut it today againts the NL’s most prolific offense. Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cleveland Indians (8:10 EST).

After yesterday’s 11-4 loss, I look for the visitors to bounce back today.

Cleveland hands the ball to Trevor Bauer (11-6, 3.86 ERA) who managed a win in his last start despite not being at his best, giving up five runs over five innings against the Astros on Thursday. Bauer looks to get back on track and finish the best campaign of his career, note that he’s 6-3 with a very respectable 3.13 ERA on the road this season. 

The home side counters with Jose Quintana (11-10, 3.13) how gave up four runs off eight hits over six innings against the Tigers on Wednesday. Quintana has regressed massively of late, having now gone four straight outings in which he’s given up four or more earned runs. Note that he owns a poor 4.44 ERA at home as well.

The first-place Tribe have a shot at home field advantage through the playoffs, but clearly they can ill afford to have to many more “brain farts” like yesterday’s performance. But here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against as Quintana’s recent performance has the southpaw trending in the wrong direction. Play on Cleveland.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST).

I think this is a bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe, both on the mound and at the plate. 

The visitors hand the ball to Dylan Bundy (8-5, 3.82 ERA), who comes in off a poor start versus the Rays. Bundy has been all over the map as far as his recent game-to-game consistency has been concerned and note that he owns a ballooned 5.23 ERA on the road thus far.

The hard-hitting home side counters with Drew Pomeranz (10-11, 3.01) who took a loss against the Padres on Monday despite allowing just two runs with five K’s over 5.2 innings of work. Pomeranz has not given up more than three earned runs since July and over his last seven outings he’s posted a very respectable 2.76 ERA and posted 44 K’s to just 14 walks in 42.1 innings of work. 

The last time Bundy faced the Red Sox was on August 17th and he’d get shelled for five runs off nine hits, including two home runs in 4 1/3’s innings of work. And now Boston is hitting the ball harder than ever. 

As stated off the top, I think Pomeranz has a big advantage on the mound and the Red Sox have a big advantage at the plate. When you add it all up, it makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Cincinnati Reds (7:10 EST).

Matt Garza has struggled with consistency all year, while Dan Straily is putting together one of the best campaigns of his career. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.”

Garza (5-6, 4.36 ERA) comes in off a decent outing against the Cubs on Wednesday, holding them to a single run off three hits over six innings in the eventual no-decision. So has Garza turned the corner? He’s put together two quality starts, but he’s been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency has been concerned this year and note that he’s been at his worst on the road, just 1-5 with a ballooned 5.96 ERA.

Straily (11-8, 3.88) hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s certainly been a lot more consistent than his volatile counterpart. Most recently he gave up three runs off seven hits while striking out six over five innings in a setback to the Pirates on Thursday. Despite scuffling a bit of late, Straily has set personal bests for games played, innings pitched, strikeouts and wins this season. Straily has to be feeling pretty confident that he can bounce back in this spot as well as he’s been at his best in front of the home town crowd, going a near-perfect 6-1 with a very respectable 2.85 ERA. 

Garza has struggled against the Reds, going 4-4 with a 5.04 ERA in 13 lifetime starts. Straily on the other hand is allowing the opposition to hit just .224 against him, good enough for ninth best in the NL. Also note that he’s 1-0 with a tiny 1.35 ERA in three appearances against Milwaukee.

I think these strong pitching trends continue here, play on Cincinnati.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (8:15 EST).

These two teams are battling it out for playoff position, but as I’ve stated many times in the past, for the most MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching an in this case, I think Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs offer fantastic value tonight.

Hendricks (14-7, 2.07 ERA) comes in off another strong outing on Labor Day, holding Milwaukee to one run over six innings, also going on to strike out six. His WHIP fell to 0.99 on the year and he hasn’t given up more than three earned runs since mid May. Note that he owns a 2.04 ERA in all “night” games thus far as well.

The home side counters with the volatile Mike Leake (9-9, 4.61) who returned after a short stint on the DL to post a no-decision against the Pirates on Wednesday, looking unremarkable after giving up three runs off nine hits over 4.1 innings of work. Note that he’s 2-5 with a 4.57 ERA at home and an even worse 6-8 with a 5.05 ERA in all “night” games.

For this pick I’m concentrating entirely on the starting pitching. I feel Hendricks and the hard-hitting Cubbies should be much larger favs than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe, play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (8:10 EST).

Once again we have a big pitching mismatch on our hands in this one, and once again, I think the oddsmakers have undervalued the clearly superior starter. Suffice it to say, I think Carlos Carrasco and the hard-hitting Indians find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Carrasco (11-7, 3.15 ERA) comes in off a hard-fought win over the Astros on Wednesday, allowing four runs while striking out five over 7.1 innings of work. Carasco has excelled in this spot, going 9-4 with a 3.65 ERA in all “night” games and 6-4 with a 2.02 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with the volatile Miguel Gonzalez (3-6, 3.81) who continued his up-and-down season on Tuesday by allowing no runs over six innings in a 2-0 victory over the Tigers. Gonzalez had been shelled in his previous re-hab start though and has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency has been concerned this year. Note that he’s a poor 3-4 with a pedestrian 4.44 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far as well.

I like Carrasco to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart and for the Indians to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. 

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

Gerrit Cole (7-9, 3.55 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, he returns from the DL and will be looking to improve upon his very respectable 5-4, 3.58 ERA record on the road.

The home side counters with Jeremy Hellickson (10-9, 3.90) who comes in off a dud against the Fish on Wednesday, giving up four runs off nine hits over six innings in the setback. That’s now three straight outings in which Hellickson has allowed at least four runs. Note that he’s a pedestrian 8-8 with a 4.31 ERA in all “night” games this year.

Pittsburgh can ill afford not to take advantage of this favorable matchup as it now sits 5.5 games back of St. Louis for the second Wild Card spot. Hellickson is worn out, while Cole returns fresh, in my opinion this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

This is an 8* Daytime Dominator on the Toronto Blue Jays (1:07 EST).

After falling in the opener of this important divisional series, the Jays bounced back with a 3-2 victory yesterday afternoon. Suffice it to say, I think Toronto finds a way to get the job done today as well with what I feel to be a vastly superior starter on the mound for it.

The visitors hand the ball to Clay Buchholz (6-10, 4.99 ERA), who comes in off a decent outing against the soft-hitting Friars on Tuesday, giving up just one run off eight hits while stirking out six over six innings of work. Buchholz’s recent performance has earned him a spot in the starting rotation for now.

The home side counters with ace Aaron Sanchez (13-2, 2.92) who most recently allowed three runs over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Yanks on Tuesday. Sanchez has now posted a quality outing in ten of his last 13 starts. Note that he’s 9-2 with a 2.55 ERA in all night games this year.

If you’ve followed me for any length of time then you know that I feel that for the most part, MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching. In this case, Sanchez should be a much bigger fav in my opinion, this is a pressure packed situation that dramatically favors the home side, so all things considered, I think we’re getting a fantastic price in this matchup. Play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST).

Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but I think this one favors Jordan Zimmermann and the home side.

The visitors trot out Ubaldo Jimenez (6-11, 6.19 ERA) who enters poised for a big letdown after his best outing of the season, holding Tampa Bay to three runs over nine innings in a win on Monday. It was his first victory since late June. I’m not going to read too much into one decent start though, Jimenez has struggled all year and note that he’s been particularly feeble on the road, going 2-7 with a 5.94 ERA. 

Zimmermann (9-5, 4.44) was unbeatable over the first two months of the season, but predictably regressed and then also got injured. Zimmermann returns from the DL and will be looking to improve upon his 4.00 ERA in all “night” contests.

This is a big series for both teams, with yesterday’s 4-3 win the Tigers are now tied with the Orioles for the second wild-card spot. 

I think the time off is going to help Zimmermann (at least in this first start) and have zero faith whatsoever in Jimenez. In my opinion, the value is simply too good to turn down in this matchup, play on the Tigers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New York Yankees (4:05 EST).

Chris Archer has been a lot better since the All Star break after a disastrous start to the year, but Yanks’ ace Masahiro Tanaka has been consistently dominant in this spot all season and I’m expecting those trends to continue this afternoon.

Archer (8-17, 4.06 ERA) most recently gave up two runs off five hits and a walk over 6.1 innings in no-decision against Toronto on Sunday. Archer posted a 3.38 ERA in July and a 3.03 ERA in August, but note that he’s a poor 5-8 with a ballooned 5.79 ERA on the road this year.

Tanaka (12-4, 3.11) has been good at home (6-1, 4.08), but awesome in all “day” games, going a perfect 6-0 with a very respectable 3.02 ERA.

The Japanese hurler has given up two runs or fewer in 19 of his 28 starts this season and over his last 39 innings of work he’s 5-0 with a 2.08 ERA. 

The Yanks come in with plenty of momentum as well after Mark Teixeria’s grand slam led them to a 7-4 victory yesterday. 

The Rays are trending in the opposite direction, after taking the first two from the Jays last weekend, they’ve now dropped five of six. 

I think New York keeps the foot on the gas as its young players continue the surge in the playoff race. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Texas Rangers (10:05 EST).

Texas lost 6-3 in Seattle last night, but I think the hard-hitting Rangers will bounce back here and look for Yu Darvish to outduel his volatile counterpart.

Darvish (5-4, 3.45 ERA) comes in off his first poor start of the season, allowing five runs off seven hits and three walks while also striking out four over four innings in a setback to Houston on Sunday. No need to hit the panic button if you’re a Darvish fan though I don’t think, previous to that clunker he’d held his opponents to two or fewer earned runs in eight of his first ten starts this season. While he’s yet to win on the road this year (0-3), he does own a very respectable 3.03 ERA away from friendly confines.

The home side counters with Tyler Skaggs (3-3, 4.71), who comes in off a win against Seattle on Saturday despite giving up two home runs. Note that he’s 0-1 with a 4.15 ERA at home this year.

Darvish owns a 7-2, 4.00 ERA in 12 career starts against LA, while Skaggs is 2-1 with an atrocious 7.91 ERA in three lifetime outings versus the Rangers. 

I look for these strong pitching trends to continue here, play on Texas.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST).

Clayton Kershaw returns to the Dodgers’ lineup after a stint on the DL to take on Marlins ace’ Jose Fernandez on Friday night. Kershaw is obviously one of, if not the best in the entire business, but Fernandez certainly isn’t far behind him. Fernandez has also proven to be almost unbeatable at home. While Kershaw will be a big boost for LA down the stretch, I think it’ll take at least a couple of starts for the big southpaw to get up to speed and that leaves the back door open for Fernandez and the Marlins tonight.

Kershaw (11-2, 1.79 ERA) threw one re-hab start and looked great. He’ll be on a pitch count today though as his health will be key in the Dodgers’ postseason success: "At this point, it's more of a pitch-count deal, making sure I can contribute and not just kind of go out there," Kershaw explained about his comeback earlier in the week. "We're still working the kinks out."

Fernandez (13-8, 3.03) comes in off an outing to forget versus the Indians on Saturday, allowing seven runs over 5.2 innings. No need to hit the panic button though obviously, he didn’t even allow a run whatsoever over his previous two starts. And note that he’s 10-2 with a 1.91 ERA at home this year.

Miami isn’t out of a wild card spot quite yet and a win today would clearly be a big step in the right direction. I like Fernandez to bounce back in front of the home town crowd and for the Marlins to give him just enough support for the victory.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST).

The battle for a wild card spot continues on Friday night, but I think this is a bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Kevin Gausman (7-10, 3.58 ERA), who has looked briliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others. He enters off back-to-back strong efforts against the Yankees, holding New York to zero runs over his last 13 innings of work. Gausman though has been at his worst on the road this season, going 1-9 with a poor 4.82 ERA.

The home side counters with Michel Fulmer (10-6, 2.77) who for the most part has been much better than what Detroit could have possibly hoped for this year. Note that Fulmer has been very good at home as well by posting a 2.95 ERA.

Gausman is just 1-1 with a ballooned 4.91 ERA in four career starts against Detroit, which sits just one game back of the Orioles, who are two games back of the Red Sox. 

I think Gausman’s road issues continue and I believe Fulmer will bounce back tonight and continue his strong play in front of the home town crowd. Play on Detroit.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the San Diego Padres (10:10 EST).

Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but I think that Clayton Richard and the home side have the advantage.

The visitors hand the ball to Jeff Hoffman (0-2, 6.60 ERA) who gave up four runs off six hits and four walks over six innings in an 8-5 loss to Washington on Friday. He was an absolute disaster in his first outing, so this was actually a huge improvement for the youngster in his second start. 

Richard (1-3, 3.29) gave up one run over five innings in a tough matchup against the Dodgers on Friday, striking out four and walking just one in the unfortunate no-decision. Over his last four starts the veteran has posted a tiny 1.17 ERA spanning 23 innings. Note that he owns a very respectable 3.12 ERA in all “night” games this year as well.

If you’ve followed me for any length of time, you know that for the most part I feel that MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in my professional opinion, Clayton holds a major advantage over his unproven and clearly inconsistent rookie counterpart. I feel the home side should be a much larger fav in this matchup considering the talent discrepancy on the mound. Play on San Diego.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Reds (7:05 EST).

I had a play on the Mets yesterday afternoon and they’d hold on for a 6-3 win in Cincinnati. I also had a free play on the Pirates yesterday and they’d manage a 4-3 victory over St. Louis.

I think it’s a great spot to pull the trigger on the underdog today though as Dan Strailly continues to get little respect from the oddsmakers when considering how consistent he’s been this year.

Straily (11-7, 3.83 ERA) wasn’t at his best in his last start, but still managed to come away with the victory, issuing seven walks to the Cards on Saturday, but only giving up and earned run off three hits over 5.2 innings of work, also going on to strike out five. Note that previous to the seven walks, he’d only given up four free passes over 32 innings spanning six starts. 

The home side counters with Ivan Nova (11-6, 4.34) who gave up two runs off five hits over six innings in a no-decision against Milwaukee on Saturday. Nova has been sharp for the Pirates since coming over from the Yanks, going 4-0 with a 2.89 ERA. 

I think Pittsburgh is primed for a letdown after last night’s emotional victory, as the win snapped an eight-game losing streak. 

Note that the Reds have played the Pirates close this season as well, as Pittsburgh holds a slight 6-5 edge in 11 matchups so far, outscoring Cincinnati by only 40-39. 

The Reds had their chances yesterday too, as they had runners on base in all nine innings, but stranded 12, going just 3 of 13 with runners in scoring position. 

I like Straily, who is 2-1 with a 3.23 ERA in seven appearances and four starts versus the Pirates this year, to match Nova and for the visitors to catch a complacent Pirates team off guard in the opener of this three game set. Play on the Reds.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Texas Rangers (10:10 EST).

Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but I think that AJ Griffin and the hard-hitting Rangers have the advantage in this one as Texas looks to build off yesterday’s 10-7 win.

Griffin (7-3, 4.41 ERA) comes in off a victory over Houston on Friday, giving up three runs off three hits and three walks over 5.2 innings of work, also going on to strike out five. Griffin has had mixed success against the Mariners throughout his career, note that he’s 2-1 with a 4.61 ERA on the road this season.

The home side counters with Ariel Miranda (2-1, 5.76) who managed a win against the Angles on Friday despite allowing four runs with five K’s and three walks over six innings of work. Note that he owns a 4.82 ERA in Seattle.

The Rangers simply can’t be stopped at the plate right now, they’ve scored six or more runs in eight consecutive outings and are averaging 7.5 runs per game over their last 13.

Griffin has room for a small amount of error today considering how well the Texas offense is rolling. The book is still out on Miranda though and all signs point to a rough night for the youngster. I’m backing Texas in this one.

Good luck…Larry 

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Royals (8:10 EST). 

Danny Duffy has come out of no where to surprise everyone this season. He hasn’t been quite as sharp of late, but I think he still offers great value in facing Twins’ volatile starter Kyle Gibson.

Duffy (11-2, 3.13 ERA) most recently allowed four runs off nine hits but would also go on to strike out eight and walk one over 5.2 innings in a no-decision against Detroit on Friday. His previous dominance was unsustainable, but there’s no reason not to think that Duffy won’t finish strong down the stretch (note that he’s 5-2 with a very respectable 2.84 ERA on the road thus far).

Gibson (5-9, 5.31) continued his poor season on Friday, allowing five runs off nine hits in a loss to the White Sox. Gibson has posted just one quality outing since the start of August and is just 1-7 with a ballooned 5.26 ERA in front of the home town crowd to this point.

The defending champs are unable to take the foot off the gas, every night has become a “must win” game for the team in its hopes of returning to the postseason. The value is simply too good to turn down in this one, I’m backing the Royals.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:10 EST).

Philadelphia held on for a 4-3 win yesterday and I believe it will carry that momentum over into this one.

The visitors hand the ball to Jeremy Hellickson (10-8, 3.88 ERA) who continued his average season on Friday against Atlanta, giving up four runs off five hits over six innings, striking out six and walking three. Note that he’s been decent on the road, going 5-4 with a 4.04 ERA.

The home side counters with the volatile Andrew Cashner (4-11, 5.00) who was shelled for six earned runs off six hits and six walks over five innings in a loss on Friday. Cashner has yet to win a game for Miami and is clearly struggling with control issues.

The Marlins continue to spiral into mediocrity, yesterday’s setback was its fifth in a row and tenth in its last 11. Both Justin Bour and Giancarlo Stanton have now been reactivated, but they’ll be used as strictly pinch hitters to begin with.

Hellickson is 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA in four starts agains the Fish this year and in my opinion, he offers great value in this matchup. Play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the New York Mets (12:35 EST).

Anthony DeSclafani has been a bright spot for the Reds this season and he’s been particularly tough in front of the home town crowd, but I think Noah Syndergaard and the playoff hopeful Mets have a bigger advantage than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

Syndergaard (12-8, 2.56 ERA) comes in off an unfortunate loss to Washington on Friday, giving up just two earned runs off three hits. The setback was hardly his fault, he would in fact allow just four baserunners in all. Note that he’s been great in both “day” games (4-2, 2.74) and on the road this year (6-3, 2.63).

DeSclafani (8-2, 2.93) comes in off a no-decision versus St. Louis on Friday, giving up two earned runs over seven innings. The third-year pro has been sharp this year and it’s hard to point to any glaring weaknesses, I simply feel this is a bad spot for the hard-throwing right-hander.

For arguments sake, let’s call these starters a “wash.” But when looking at the motivation levels and the line-ups at the plate, I’m giving a big nod to the visitors in this one. I think Cincinnati’s anemic offense struggles against a red hot Syndergaard, while the hungry Metropolitans do just enough to secure the victory. 

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the San Francisco Giants (8:40 EST).

I had a free play out on the Giants yesterday and they’d unfortunately go on to lose 6-0 to the Rockies. San Francisco is just 4-6 its last ten overall, including only 1-4 in its last five, after also dropping three of four to the Cubs over the weekend. The Giants have pushed the panic button and I think the collective focus that I anticipate them having, finally pays off with a victory tonight: "We have to find a way to come out of this," San Fran manager Bruce Bochy last night. "We couldn't generate the energy level up to get the offense going. Their guy pitched great. I'll give him that, but at the same time, we've been in this for a little while. It's time for us to wake up here.

"We're looking for that magic wand. We are looking for someone to get us going ... to see if somebody can jump start us and get this offense going. We are better than this. This thing is contagious. It has been here awhile, too long."

The visitors hand the ball to Jeff Samardzija (11-9, 4.06 ERA), who received a no-decision against Chicago on Thursday, going four innings and allowing three runs off five hits. Samardzija now looks to get back on track (albeit at hitter friendly Coors Field), note that previous to his latest sub-par effort he’d posted eight straight quality starts. Also note that he’s 9-6 with a 3.85 ERA in all “night” games.

The home side counters with Tyler Anderson (5-5, 3.43) who is poised for a letdown in my opinion after coming off the best performance of his career, going 6.1 shutout innings, allowing six hits and two walks while striking out five in a win over the Dodgers on Wednesday. It was just his first win since August 3rd though, ending a four-game winless slide. Anderson has been pretty good at home, but note that he does own a 4.21 ERA in nine “night” contests this season. 

I like the underachieving Giants to finally put it all together and get off the schneid with a big winning effort.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Tampa Bay Rays (7:10 EST).

The Rays have been relegated to playing spoilers at this point of the season, but I think they’ll bounce back today after falling 7-3 on Monday night.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Yovani Gallardo (4-7, 5.62 ERA), who was shelled for eight runs off six hits over just 1.1 innings in a 14-4 loss to New York on Friday. Gallardo comes in with zero momentum, having lost three straight decisions and this latest setback was the worst of them all. Atrocious play on the road is the main reason for Gallardo’s poor record and ERA, as he’s just 2-5 with a ballooned 7.18 ERA away from friendly confines thus far.

The home side counters with Jake Odorizzi (9-5, 3.56) who went six innings versus the Red Sox on Tuesday and gave up three runs off five hits, while also striking out seven in the eventual no-decision. Odorizzi has been on fire since the All Star Break, going 5-0 with a tiny 2.09 ERA over his last seven outings. Note that he’s been partcularly effective at home this year as well, going 5-3 with a 2.92 ERA.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in my professional opinion, Odorizzi should be a much larger fav in this spot. Great value on the Rays in thsi one.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (8:10 EST).

Zack Greinke hasn’t been a complete disappointment for Arizona this year, but he hasn’t been as domimant as they’d hoped he would be either. “Rookie” Kenta Maeda though has been better than LA could have possibly hoped for. I think this is a matchup which favors the home side.

Greinke (12-4, 4.17 ERA) most recently gave up two runs off six hits over six innings in a win over San Francisco on Tuesday. Greinke owns a respectable 3.66 ERA over his last 16 starts, but his 7.5 K/9 over those 98.1 innings is well below his career average. Note that he owns a pedestrian 4.20 ERA in all “night” games to this point as well.

Maeda (13-8, 3.38) comes in off a tough luck loss at Coors Field on Monday, giving up two runs off four hits, while striking out six and walking just one over five innings. Note that he’s 11-7 with a highly respectable 3.46 ERA in all night games.

I think Greinke chokes against his former team. While he does have seven wins on the road this year, his ERA sits at a poor 5.50. 

Maeda has had a full week’s rest and I think he’ll be the difference here. Play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (1:10 EST).

I had a play on Toronto yesterday and the hard-hitting Jays would rally late and salvage the final game of a three-game set with the Rays. This is an important stretch for Toronto, which leaped into the lead in the AL East race after the Red Sox lost in extra innings last night. And with Boston coming to town next, Toronto can ill afford to take the foot off the gas.

Clearly the Yanks won’t be rolling over, but I think this is one that favors Toronto’s big bats.

The visitors hand the ball to RA Dickey (9-13, 4.43 ERA) who comes in off a sub-par outing against Minnesota on Sunday, giving up five runs (just three earned though) off six hits over six innings while striking out five in an eventual no-decision. Dickey has done a much better job of keeping the ball in the park over the last month, surrendering just one dinger in his last 29 innings of work, leading to a very respectable 3.41 ERA over a five start stretch. And finally note, while he’s just 6-5 away from friendly confines, Dickey does own a very respectable 3.39 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with ace Masahiro Tanaka (11-4, 3.12) whose last start was cut short by rain versus the Royals on Tuesday. Tanaka would give up two runs off four hits over five innings in the no-decision. Tanaka is putting together one of the finest campaigns of his MLB career, but note, while he does own a great 5-1 record at home, his ERA in friendly confines is just a pedestrian 4.17.

Toronto has won 14 of the last 21 meetings between the team’s, including 11 of the last 15 in New York. 

Keep your eyes on Blue Jays’ catcher Russell Martin, who is batting .298 with six home runs and 18 RBI’s at Yankee Stadium since coming to Toronto (he’s also hitting .338 with nine home runs and 24 RBI over his last 18 games). 

The Yanks still have a mathematical shot at making the postseason, but are in fourth place, sitting 6.5 games out in the division. New York comes in with zero momentum after dropping two of three to Baltimore with shutout losses (although the team did win 5-2 in yesterday’s finale). 

Could New York get caught “looking ahead” to back-to-back “cream puff” series on the horizon? Very likely! After Toronto, the Yanks plays two more series at home versus Tampa Bay and Los Angeles, before embarking on an 11-game trip.

I think Dickey will match Tanaka and look for division leaders to finally give him some support for a win in The Big Apple. Play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Seattle Mariners (4:10 EST).

After flirting with one of the AL Wild card spots a couple of week ago, the Mariners have some work ahead of them in the small amount of time left in the regular season to make those dreams become reality. Seattle lost three straight in Texas, but then responded with an 11-8 win over the Angels on Friday. LA returned the favor in yesterday’s 10-3 victory. 

Suffice it to say, I think the home side rallies for a series victory today in what I believe to be a favorable matchup on the mound.

The visitors hand the ball to Matt Shoemaker (9-13, 3.91 ERA), who comes in off a decent outing against the soft-hitting Reds on Monday, allowing two runs off seven hits over seven innings of work. Shoemaker’s record is not entirely indicative of how he’s thrown this year as the fourth-year pro has looked pretty good overall to this point. However, if he’s had one glaring weakness in his game it’s been his play on the road where he’s just 4-9 with a poor 4.72 ERA.

The home side counters with Hisashi Iwakuma (14-10, 4.01) who comes in off an outing to forget versus Texas on Monday, allowing five runs off six hits and a walk to go along with two strikeouts over just three innings of work. Iwakuma has struggled this year. He came into the season on the IL and his transition into the rotation a couple of months into the campaign hasn’t gone smoothly. Note though, he’s consistently been at his best in front of the home town crowd, going 8-3 with a 3.56 ERA thus far. 

I’ll point out that the Angels are just 16-21 (-5.1 units) in all “day” games this year and only 41-57 (-14.3 units) against right-handed starters, while the Mariners are 48-35 (+7.4 units) versus righties.

I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done tonight, play on the Mariners.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Boston Red Sox (4:05 EST).

The Red Sox annihilated the A’s 11-2 yesterday and I think they’ll build off that impressive offensive outburst.

The visitors hand the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez (2-6, 5.35 ERA), who comes in off an outing to forget in which he allowed five runs off four hits in 5.1 innings of work in a loss to the Royals on Sunday. So far Rodriguez has struggled this year, but I’ll point out that in his rookie season he’d post a very respectable 3.71 ERA on the road in eight games.

The home side counters with the volatile Kendall Graveman (10-9, 3.96) who was originally slated to start versus the Angels tomorrow, but who was forced into action early due to an injury to Sean Manaea. Graveman took a loss against Houston in his last start, although he did produce a quality outing. 

Graveman clearly gets the slight nod in this pitching matchup, but Boston’s potent line-up will once again prove to be the difference tonight.

Note that the Red Sox are 5-0 versus the A’s this year, outscoring them 67-19 in the process. Boston is in a tie with Toronto for the AL East lead and I think it continues the hit paradae in Oakland this afternoon. 

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Chicago Cubs (2:20 EST).

Chicago took the first two games of this series before falling 3-2 yesterday. I think veteran John Lackey has a bigger advantage over his counterpart Johnny Cueto than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe though and look for the home side to ultimately find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Cueto (14-5, 2.98 ERA) has been better than what the Giants likely predicted this year, but he comes in off a dud, getting rocked for four runs off five hits and four walks over just 4.2 innings in a loss to Arizona on Tuesday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Cueto, he’s been rock solid across the board, I simply feel this is a bad spot for the crafty right-hander.

Lackey (9-7, 3.41) comes off a short stint on the DL refreshed and ready to go. The veteran is enjoying a solid season with a 3.41 ERA and 156 strikeouts in 158.1 innings of work. Note that he’s been particularly tough in this spot all season, posting a 3.90 ERA in all “day” games and an even better 2.47 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

I think a focused Lackey outduels Cueto and the hard-hitting Cubbies bounce back after yesterday’s setback. Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Toronto Blue Jays (1:08 EST).

I think the hard-hitting Jays will bounce back after falling 7-5 in Tampa Bay yesterday.

The visitors hand the ball to “ace” JA Happ (17-4, 3.23 ERA) who received a no-decision in Baltimore on Tuesday after allowing three runs off six hits and three strikeouts over 6.1 innings. Happ is now winless in two straight following an 11-game win skein, but he’ll clearly be feeling pretty confident that he can return to prominence today as he looks to improve upon his already impressive 9-1, 2.84 ERA record in all “day” games.

The home side counters with the volatile Chris Archer (8-17, 4.10) who gave up three runs off four hits over seven innings in a winning effort over Houston on Sunday. Archer hasn’t been horrible this year, he’s just struggled with consistency from game-to-game. 

Happ is the difference here for me, he’s proven himself in these spots and I think he has a major advantage over his inconsistent counterpart. Toronto salvages the finale of this three-game set before heading to the Big Apple for an important series with the Evil Empire.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Miami Marlins.

A couple of playoff hopeful teams collide again in interleague action tonight and I think the visitors will respond after yesterday’s listless 6-2 setback.

The Marlins hand the ball to Jose Fernandez (13-7, 2.79 ERA) who comes in off a gem versus the Mets on Monday, allowing only three hits and striking out six over six scoreless innings of work. Fernandez has now tossed 13 shutout innings over his last two outings while striking out 15 in the process. Note that he’s 9-5 with a 2.65 ERA in all “night” games this season.

The home side counters with Trevor Bauer (9-6, 3.73) who comes in off his best start since the All Star break, holding the soft-hitting Twins scoreless over six innings. I’ll caution in reading too much into one decent effort though, previous to that he’d posted a 5.20 ERA since the Mid Summer Classic. Also note that Bauer owns a poor 4.28 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year.

If you’ve followed me for any length of time, you know that I feel that for the most part, MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case I think that Fernandez has a much bigger advantage over his erratic counterpart than what the oddsmakers are leading us to beileve. Play on Miami.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Seattle Mariners.

While neither of these starters instills much confidence, I think that Ariel Miranda has the upper-hand over his inconsistent counterpart.

The visitors hand the ball to Brett Oberholtzer (3-2, 5.16 ERA) who makes his second start for his new team. Oberholtzer has actually enjoyed success against the Mariners in the past, but I’ll point out that LA is just 4-9 (-6 units) this year when playing with a day off. 

Miranda gave up three runs over four innings in a loss to the White Sox on Saturday. Note that he’s 1-0 with a 4.26 ERA at home so far this year.

Ultimately I feel that the Mariners have some gas left in the tank for one last push to end the season. Certainly Seattle has to be feeling motivated after getting outscored 29-11 in a three game series loss at Texas earlier in the week: "It was a rough trip," Seattle manager Scott Servais said after. "There is no doubt."

Time is running out and the Mariners already sit four games back in the wild card race. This has become a do-or-die series for Seattle. Past success doesn’t guarantee anything in the future, so I don’t think Oberholtzer has any advantage over the hungry Miranda tonight. 

I look for the Mariners to bounce back and find a way to deliver the goods once it’s all said and done. 

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Astros (8:05 EST).

I like the hungry visitors to steal the first game of this series.

Houston hands the ball to Doug Fister (12-9, 3.60 ERA) and he’s been pretty solid for most of the year. Most recently he gave up four runs (two earned) over 4.1 innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday. Fister has scuffled a bit of late, but note that he’s now reached the 100-strikeout mark for the first time since 2013. Also note that he’s 9-5 with a 3.38 ERA in all “night” games this year and an even better 9-3 with a 3.07 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with AJ Griffin (6-3, 4.39) who has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned this season. Note that he owns a pedestrian 4.10 ERA at home this season.

Texas sits 8.5 games ahead of Houston, which will be leaving everything on the table this weekend to try and secure the series victory. The Astros are only one game back in the AL Wild Card race though and have won ten of their last 12 overall. I’m expecting that momentum to be carried over here in what I feel to be a clear mismatch on the mound. Play on Houston.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST).

I think this is a bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Joel De La Cruz (0-7, 4.66 ERA), whose last start was skipped over. The rookie has made eight starts this year and he’s failed to secure a single victory and unfortunately, his 5.39 FIP points to him being very fortunate that his ERA is only at a ballooned 4.66. 

The home side counters with Jeremy Hellickson (10-8, 3.80) who comes in off an outing to forget versus the Mets on Saturday, allowing five runs off seven hits over four innings. I’m not going to read too much into one sub-par effort though, Hellickson entered that one having posted a very respectable 2.60 ERA over his previous 11 trips to the hill. 

Hellickson will now be looking to improve upon his 3.56 ERA home record. Also note that in two career starts against Atlanta he’s 1-0 with a 3.09 ERA. 

I think the Braves have a letdown here after their 9-6 win at home over San Diego yesterday afternoon and look for Hellickson and the home side to take advantage. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Reds (7:10 EST).

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in my opinion, Anthony DeSclafani offers fantastic value in this matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Alex Reyes (1-0, 0.64 ERA), who gets ready to make his second start of his career. His first was decent, allowing one run off two hits over 4.2 innings, but also going on to walk four.

DeSclafani (8-2, 2.96) comes in off a gem versus Arizona on Saturday, throwing a complete game four-hit shutout with nine K’s and one walk. The third year pro is firing on all cylinders and has to be feeling extremely confident in this spot as he’ll now be looking to improve upon his already impressive 4-1, 2.63 ERA home record.

While the Cards are eying a playoff spot, the Reds look to play spoiler. Clearly the visitors have the advantage at the plate, but I love DeSclafani to keep the momentum rolling. All things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting awesome value on the home side in this matchup. Play on the Reds.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST).

The red hot Royals look to bounce back after coming up just short in yesterday’s 5-4 defeat to the Evil Empire.

The visitors hand the ball to Luis Cessa (4-0, 4.11 ERA) who gave up three earned runs off five hits over six innings in a 14-4 blowout win over Baltimore on Friday. Cessa has been awesome in his short time thus far, but now faces his stiffest test to date in the defending champs at their own field.

The home side counters with Ian Kennedy (9-9, 3.57) who also comes in off a strong outing, holding Boston to two earned runs over 5.1 innings in a 6-3 victory on Friday. It was the sixth time over his last 11 starts that he’s posted at least eight K’s and didn’t give up any home runs. Kennedy has also now notched three consecutive victories. Note that Kennedy has been at his best in front of the home town crowd this year, going a respectable 4-3 with a 3.05 ERA.

The Royals have won seven straight series and will need to win today to make it eight in a row. I think the home side bounces back here as its’ patient line-up will prove to be too much for the Yanks’ rookie hurler. Note that Cessa has already given up seven home runs this year. Kennedy on the other hand is 3-0 with a minuscule 1.11 ERA in August. 

All things considered, I think we’re getting a great price on the home side, play on the Royals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

Toronto took the first game of this important series, but came up short in yesterday’s defeat. But here’s a big opportunity for the Jays to get back into the winners circle in what is another favorable matchup on the mound for them.

The visitors hand the ball to Aaron Sanchez (12-2, 2.99 ERA), who has been recalled from the minors to make this start. Sanchez was sent down only as a precautionary measure as he’s already surpassed his previous high for innings worked. Sanchez should be in the mix for AL Cy Young contention at the end of the season and he has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as he’s 7-1 with a 2.70 ERA on the road this year.

Yovani Gallardo (4-6, 5.69) gets the call for the home side, he was most recently shelled for eight runs off six hits and a walk over just 1.1 innings in a 14-4 setback to the Yankees on Friday. The veteran has now lost three straight starts and while he’s been better at home (3.69 ERA) than on the road (7.18), note that he’s a sub-par 2-4 with a 5.76 ERA in all “night” games thus far.

It’s going to be a battle down to the wire for AL East supremacy and you could make a logical argument for either team to win today. But for this pick I’m concentrating solely on the starting pitchers and in this case, I think a “fresh” Sanchez will easily outduel his struggling counterpart and all other things equal, we are indeed getting a great price in this mismatch. Play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Detroit Tigers (1:10 EST).

The Tigers rallied for a convincing 8-4 win yesterday and while runs are likely going to be much harder to come by this evening, I think this one once again favors the home side.

The visitors hand the ball to ace Chris Sale (15-7, 3.14 ERA), who has been a bit inconsistent since the All Star break (compared to his almost immaculate first half performance anyways). It’s hard to say anything negative about Sale, I simply feel this is a bad spot for the hard-throwing southpaw.

The home side counters with Justin Verlander (14-7, 3.33) who comes in off a strong outing versus the Angels on Friday, striking out eight and walking just one while allowing only two runs off four hits over eight innings in the victory. 

Verlander is throwing at the same level of Sale right now, except he has the superior lineup backing him up. Note that Verlander has posted nine consecutive quality outings and is second in the AL with 189 K’s and tied for fifth for wins.

I’m banking on Detroit to build off yesterday’s impressive performance, play on the Tigers.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (10:05 EST).

I had a play on the Angels last night and they’d go on to crush the anemic Reds 9-2. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar beatdown tonight.

The visitors hand the ball to Tim Aldeman (2-1, 3.68 ERA) who was shelled in a fortunate no-decision on Wednesday, allowing five runs off five hits over five innings. It was just Adleman’s second start since May 19th, having spent most of his time in Triple-A. He’d give up three home runs in the loss to the Rangers. 

The home side counters with Jared Weaver (9-11, 5.31), who comes in off a strong outing in a win over Toronto on Thursday, going 5.2 innings and allowing two runs (just one earned) off five hits while striking out four. Weaver has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concened, but he’s still going to get the nod in this matchup versus his unproven rookie counterpart. 

I’ll point out that Cincinnati is just 5-8 (-2.5 units) this year as a road underdog in the +125 to +150 range, while LA is 10-7 (+1.7 units) this season as a home fav in the -125 to -150 range.

I like the home side to build off yesterday’s impressive offensive performance and all things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting a very fair price in this matchup. Play on LA.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Royals (8:10 EST).

Kansas City held on for an 8-5 win on Monday and I think the defending champs offer good value in this spot as well, despite having to face the Yanks’ best.

Masahiro Tanaka (11-4, 3.11 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, he comes in off a gem versus Seattle on Wednesday, going seven scoreless. He’s now won four straight starts and is clearly on his way to putting together his finest season in the majors. It’s hard to say anything negative about Tanaka, so I won’t. I simply feel that this is a bad matchup for him tonight.

The home side counters with Edinson Volquez (10-10, 4.88) who also comes in off a strong outing, giving up two unearned runs off three hits in a victory over Miami on Thursday. His ERA is the best it’s been since mid-July. It’s been an up-and-down season for Volquez, but he’s been pretty good at home with a 6-3, 4.25 ERA record.

I concentrate a lot on starting pitching when making my picks, but sometimes other factors come into play.  

Kansas City is the hottest team in baseball right now, having gone 18-4 in its last 22 overall (also an AL-best 20-7 in the month of August). The Royals now sit just two games back of the sliding Orioles for the final wild-card spot. Kansas city has 31 games left in the season, with only 12 coming on the road, so expect the Royals to keep the foot on the gas and to take advantage of friendly confines down the stretch. At least that’s what I’m banking on happening again tonight. Play on Kansas City.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

Toronto’s superior pitching and big bats were the difference in yesterday’s 5-1 series opener and I think they’ll once again play a big role in today’s victory as well.

The visitors hand the ball to ace JA Happ (17-4, 3.19 ERA) who comes in off a rare dud versus the Angels on Thursday, allowing four runs off six hits over five innings. Note though that he’d walk just one and strike out six in the mediocre performance. The setback snapped Happ’s 11-game winning streak, so now the crafty southpaw looks to bounce back here and improve upon his very respectable 7-2, 3.32 ERA road record. 

The home side counters with the volatile Ubaldo Jimenez (5-11, 6.62) who comes in off a rare decent outing versus the Nationals on Thursday, allowing one run off five hits while striking out four in a setback to Washington on Thursday. I’ll caution in reading too much into the performance though as it marked just his second six-plus inning outing since early May. Unfortunately for Jimenez, a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to keep the momentum rolling as the beleagured right-hander owns a horrible 6.67 ERA in Baltimore this season.

If you’ve followed me for any length of time, then you’ve heard me say many times before that for the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching. Happ has the clear advantage in this matchup and after faltering a bit in his last outing, I believe the veteran comes into this one razor focused and helps his team earn another cruical victory in its playoff push. All things considered, this is a great price on the hard-hitting Jays.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Angels (10:05 EST).

Dan Straily has been better than expected this season, but I think this is a matchup that favors Matt Shoemaker and the Angels.

Straily (10-6, 3.57 ERA) went six scoreless versus the Rangers on Tuesday and has now posted nine quality outings out of his last ten trips to the hill. Straily has been hot of late, but if he’s had one glaring weakness this year it’s clearly been his play on the road as he’s just 5-5 with a pedestrian 4.27 ERA away from friendly confines.

Shoemaker (8-13, 3.98) also comes in off a strong outing, going six scoreless versus the hard-hitting Jays, allowing just three hits and no walks. Shoemaker’s win/loss record is not indicative of his overall performance this year, note that his 3.08 runs of support per game is the lowest among any AL starting pitcher. But the eight runs he received versus Toronto was obviously well deserved for the fourth year pro.

Both teams are out of the playoff picture, but one has been playing much better of late, while the other has continued to scuffle along. Note that LA has won four of its last five, while Cincinnati has dropped five of its last seven.

For arguments sake, let’s call these starters a “wash.” However, I think the Angels have the advantage at the plate versus the anemic Reds and that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in their favor today. Play on LA.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Dodgers (8:40 EST).

Hitter friendly Coors Field is a difficult spot for every pitcher. That said, I think this is a bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe as I expect Kenta Maeda and the hard-hitting visitors to jump out to an early lead and to never look back.

Maeda (13-7, 3.37 ERA) gave up three runs over five innings in a win over the Giants on Tuesday. It was just the fifth time this year that he’s walked more than three batters. Maeda though has been razor sharp all year as evidenced by his 142:39 K/W ratio in 141.2 innings of work this year. Note that Maeda is 8-2 with a very respectable 3.26 ERA on the road as well.

Colorado counters with Jon Gray (8-6, 4.61) who gave up two runs off four hits with three walks over six innings of work in a no-decision versus Milwaukee on Tuesday. I’ll caution in reading too much into the decent effort though as Gray had posted a deplorable 13.50 ERA over his previous three outings. It also marked the first time in five tries that he’d post a quality start. And note that over 23 innings in August he’s posted an atrocoius 7.83 ERA. Also note that despite a winning 5-1 record, he owns a poor 5.11 ERA over 61.2 innings at his home park this season.

Maeda is the reason I love this pick so much, he’s been particularly awesome of late, going 5-0 with a 3.74 ERA over his last six starts, while limiting the opposition to a .226 average with 30 strikeouts and seven walks over 33 2/3’s innings of work. And he’s been at his absolute best whenever he’s faced the Rockies, going 2-1 with a tiny 1.45 ERA with two walks and 22 strikeouts in 18 2/3’s innings (in two starts at Coors Field he’s gone 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA, issuing a single walk, compared to 13 strikeouts spanning 12 innings of work).

All things considered, I think we’re getting a great price in this matchup, play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:20 EST).

The Cards fell 7-4 at home to the A’s yesterday but have to be feeling pretty confident that they can bounce back this evening by sending Carlos Matinez to the hill.

Martinez (12-7, 3.13 ERA) comes into this one on fire, most recently he’d give up just one run off four hits over eight innings in an 8-1 win over the Mets on Wednesday. He’s been decent at home (3.83 ERA), but spectacular on the road, going a near-perfect 7-1 with a tiny 2.36 ERA.

Zach Davies (10-6, 4.06) gets the call for the home side, he also comes in off a strong outing versus Colorado on Wednesday, ultimately allowing one run off five hits over six innings of work. Davies has been pretty good at home this year as well, sporting a respectable 3.70 ERA.

Davies has been solid, but the Dominican still gets the nod in this matchup.

St. Louis has won 57 of its last 84 versus Milwaukee and that includes a 29-12 record at Miller Park. The Cardinals are already leading the season series 9-3. With just a half game lead over the Pirates in the playoff race, I’m expecting St. Louis to come in razor focused today. Martinez has already faced the Brew Crew twice this year and has given up just a single run over 13 innings. Suffice it to say, I look for that dominance to get carried over into this one and all things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting an excellent price in this matchup. 

Play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Cleveland Indians (3:05 EST).

I played Cleveland on Friday and won. I was then back on the Tribe yesterday and lost. I think the visitors bounce back on Sunday though in what I feel is a bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

Veteran Derek Holland (5-6, 4.92 ERA) gets the call for the home side, he would return from the DL earlier this week and then allow just one run off four hits over six innings in a 3-0 loss to the soft-hitting Reds on Tuesday. 

The visitors counter with Danny Salazar (11-5, 3.90), who has admittedly struggled over the last month: “His last two starts, everybody has those," Cleveland manager Terry Francona assessed last night. "When things like that happen, Mickey (Callaway), our pitching coach, they make sure they have a good solid side day, they pay attention to detail, because that stuff is the fastest way to find your footing again. It doesn't always come back in one lump, but if you have a good solid work week, it generally gives you the best chance on your day to start to succeed."

Note that Salazar is 6-3 with a 3.38 ERA on the road and 4-2 with a 3.40 ERA in all “day” games. 

The moral of this particular selection is to not “overreact.” I’m not going to read too much into one decent start from Holland, whose win/loss record and ERA are completely indicative of his inconsistent play this year, while at the same time, I won’t overreact to a couple of poor outings in a row from Salazar, who has the experience and tools in place to finish off the season strong.

I think Salazar and the hard hitting visitors offer awesome value in this matchup, play on Cleveland.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (2:10 EST).

I think this is a bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Ivan Nova (10-6, 4.55 ERA) who comes in off a gem versus Houston on Tuesday, allowing just one run off six hits and a walk while striking out six in a complete-game effort. Since coming over from the Yanks Nova has given up nine runs over 25.1 innings over four starts which has earned him a 3-0 record. 

The home side counters with Chase Anderson (7-10, 4.99) who gave up three runs off six hits and two walks over five innings in a no-decision versus Colorado on Tuesday. Note that Anderson is 0-3 with a pedestrian 4.42 ERA in all “day” games this year.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I think Nova offers fantastic value against his volatile counterpart. Play on Pittsburgh.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (2:10 EST).

Chris Archer has looked a lot better of late for Tampa Bay, but I think that Doug Fister and the home side have a bigger advantage than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Archer (7-17, 4.11 ERA) most recently allowed two runs off five hits and two walks while striking out six in a loss to Boston on Tuesday. Archer has posted a 2.94 ERA since the All Star break, but if he’s had one clear weakness this year it’s definitely been his play on the road where he’s just 4-8 with a ballooned 5.97 ERA. 

Fister (12-8, 3.59) comes in off a gem versus Pittsburgh on Monday, allowing just three hits while striking out six over seven shutout frames in the eventual victory. Fister hasn’t been perfect this year by any means, but I think he’s been much more consistent that his counterpart and he’ll now looked to improve upon his respectable 3.99 ERA in all “day” games.

I think Archer’s road woes continue and expect Fister to build off his last strong outing. The price is right in this one, play on the Astros.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (1:05 EST).

Momentum is a factor in which I’ve found the oddsmakers have a hard time in properly quanitfying into a line. And that’s the case here.

The Yankees are rolling, while the Orioles continue to crumble under the pressure. The Orioles’ big bats are proving to not be enough down the stretch, as the starting rotation and bullpen continue to be Baltimore’s achilles heel. 

New York was supposed to be in a “rebuilding mode” wasn’t it? The team has been rejuvinated by young players like slugger Gary Sanchez, the rookie would go on to hit his 11th home run in yesterday’s 13-5 win, becoming the the fastest player to reach 11 home runs in MLB history (23 games). 

The Yanks will look for the series sweep tomorrow, but have already assured themselves a third straight series victory, taking two of three from both the Angels and Mariners before locking down the first two of this current one.

Baltimore has lost seven of its last 11, including three straight. 

The visitors hand the ball to Kevin Gausman (5-10, 3.92 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing versus the Nationals on Tuesday, allowing just six hits over six shutout innings. I’m going to caution in reading too much into the decent performance though as he’d allowed 16 runs over his previous 26.2 innings of work, spanning five starts. Gausman has been great at home (5-1, 2.48) and horrible on the road (0-9, 5.32).

The surging home side counters with veteran CC Sabathia (8-10, 4.33) who comes in off a confidence building gem versus the Mariners on Tuesday, allowing one earned run off three hits over seven innings of work. 

Sabathia started the season on an absolute tear and then came crashing back to earth. The southpaw looked solid in his last outing, so far arguments sakes, lets call these starters a “wash.” 

I simply feel that the momentum the Yankees have right now is a tangible factor and one which I believe will prove to be the difference again this afternoon. Play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cleveland Indians (8:05 EST).

I had a play on Cleveland last night and it would go on to annihilate Texas 12-1. I’m expecting another beatdown this evening, as ultimately I feel that this is a much bigger pitching mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The Tribe hand the ball to Carlos Carrasco (9-6, 3.12 ERA) who comes in off a gem versus the A’s on Monday, going eight scoreless and allowing just four hits while striking out nine. Carrasco would go on to post 18 swinging strikes with seven ground balls and he’ll now be looking to improve upon his impressive 6-3, 1.74 ERA road record.

The home side counters with the volatile AJ Griffin (5-3, 4.68) who gave up three earned runs off seven hits in an 8-2 loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday. Unfortunately for Griffin, a date at home is not exactly what the doctor ordered to get back into the winners circle as he ows a poor 4.79 ERA in Texas thus far.

Carrasco comes into this one red hot and I think he’s going to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart. These two teams are both in the playoff hunt, but the hard-hitting Indians have the clear advantage tonight.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Chicago White Sox (7:10 EST).

I had a play on the White Sox last night and would take the loss on that one as Felix Hernandez outdueled home side ace Chris Sale. Suffice it to say, I like Chicago to respond on Saturday night.

The visitors hand the ball to Ariel Miranda (1-0, 5.49 ERA) who gave up three runs over 5.2 innings of work in a no-decision versus Milwaukee on Sunday. Note that Miranda has been particularly incompetent on the road so far, sporting a hefty 7.71 ERA.

The White Sox counter with southpaw Jose Quintana (10-9, 2.84) who gave up two runs off eight hits and one walk while striking out six in a victory over the A’s on Sunday. Quintana has now posted seven straight quality outings and he has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as he’ll now look to improve upon his already impressive 2.87 ERA home mark.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, for the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in my professional opinion, Quintana offers fantastic value in this matchup. Lay the price on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (8:10 EST).

Despite these starters having similar overall ERA’s, I think this is a bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Drew Smyly (6-11, 4.88) who earned a win in his last start despite getting shelled for four runs off five hits over six innings versus the Rangers on Sunday. It was the eighth time in 24 starts that Smyly has served up multiple home runs in a game. Smyly hasn’t been horrible this year, but he certainly hasn’t been great. And if he’s had one clear weakness this season, it’s been his play on the road where he’s just 3-5 with a ballooned 5.58 ERA. 

Mike Fiers (9-6, 4.41) gets the call for the home side, he comes in off a gem versus the hard-hitting Orioles on Saturday, giving up an earned run off five hits over seven innigns in the eventual 12-2 victory. He’d also go on to strike out seven. Fiers has now posted seven K’s in three of his last four outings and he has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as he’ll now be looking to improve upon his respectable 6-3, 3.36 ERA home record.

This is a big series for Houston which will need to string some series victories together if it has any shot at making a postseason push. I’ll give Fiers the big nod in this matchup and all things considered, I do indeed believe we’re getting a great price in this one. Play on the Astros.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago White Sox (8:10 EST).

One of these starters has to be considered in the Top 5 in the league, while the other has clearly started to decline after a decade of dominance. If you would have told me that I could get Chris Sale at this price at home versus Felix Hernandez before the season started, I would have called you crazy (I jumped on this one yesterday and got -120). 

Hernandez (8-4, 3.26 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, he most recently allowed two runs off seven hits over eight innings in a win over the Brewers on Saturday. Hernandez has certainly looked decent over the last month since returning off the DL and it’s hard to nit-pick too many negative things about the veteran, I simply feel he’s severely outclassed today.

Sale (15-6, 3.15) comes in off a gem versus the A’s on Saturday, scattering just three hits over eight scoreless innings, walking three and striking out eight. Over his last 29.2 innings of work Sale has struck out 32 batters. Sale has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot, as not only is he 10-4 with a 2.99 ERA in all “night” games, but when he faced the M’s earlier in the year, he’d go eight scoreless, allowing only a single hit.

I’m concentraing solely on the starting pitchers today. The price is right, I’m jumping on Sale and the White Sox.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (8:05 EST).

It’s going to be all hands on deck today for the Cleveland Indians as the team continues to lose ground in the wild card race after dropping three of four to the lowly A’s earlier in the week and then getting crushed 9-0 in yesterday’s series opener with the Rangers.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case I think the visitors have a definite advantage today.

The Tribe hand the ball to ace Corey Kluber (13-8, 3.13) who comes in off a no-decision vs. Toronto on Sunday, allowing just two runs off six hits while striking out eight over seven innings. The former Cy Young winner has been stellar since the Mid Summer Classic, going 4-0 with a tiny 1.89 ERA over 47.2 innings of work.

The home side counters with the volatile Martin Perez (8-9, 4.27) who was rocked for six runs off five hits and three walks over six innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday. Perez has now been shelled for four or more runs in a single inning five times in his last nine starts, leading to an atrocious 5.96 ERA over that stretch. 

I love Kluber in this matchup. As decent as Perez has been at home, he comes into this contest with zero momentum. And I think the visitors are going to be the much hungrier team overall and they’ll be especially motivated after yesterday’s embarrassing setback. Play on the Indians.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Seattle Mariners (8:10 EST).

I jumped on this one on Wednesday afternoon and got -144. The line has since come up, but if you can get for -165 or better, then I still love this selection.

The visitors hand the ball to James Paxton (4-5, 3.53 ERA) who comes in off a successful re-hab session in Triple A on Saturday. Despite just a 2-3 record, Paxton has been decent on the road this year in posting a 3.86 ERA. 

The home side counters with Anthony Ranaudo (1-1, 9.42) who will replace Miguel Gonzalez in the rotation for now. Ranaudo has made two starts for Chicago this year, a quality outing versus the Cubs and a much rougher effort against the Indians in which he was shelled for five earned runs over four innings.

There is still a lot of baseball to be played down the stretch and Seattle is still in the hunt for the second wild card spot. After losing two of three to the Yankees this week, including yesterday’s listless 5-0 setback, I’m expecting the hungry visitors to come into tonight’s game focused as they look to get back into the win column and take advantage of this favorable mismatch on the mound. Play on the Mariners.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST).

I think this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to the beleagured Edinson Volquez (9-10, 5.04 ERA) who has been consistently inconsistent all season. He’s been decent at home (6-3, 4.25), but downright atrocious on the road (3-7, 6.18).

Miami counters with Tom Koehler (9-8, 3.82), who gave up two runs over six innings in a no-decision versus Pittsburgh on Friday. Koehler comes into this one with a ton of momentum, having posted six straight quality starts and who has a tiny 1.62 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over his last 39 innings of work. 

Koehler has been pedestrian on the road this year (5-5, 4.19), but better at home (4-3, 3.36).

If you’ve followed me for any length of time, you know that I believe for the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching. Recent performance is sometimes the best indicator we have to properly judge starting pitching and in this case I don’t think that Koehler is getting nearly enough respect from the bookmakers. All things considered I do indeed feel that we’re getting fantastic value on the home side tonight. Play on the Marlins.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST).

I think the hard-hitting home side responds after falling 7-4 to the lowly Braves on Tuesday.

The visitors hand the ball to Juilo Teheran (3-9, 2.90 ERA) who has been excellent this year, but who has been the victim of the worst run support in the National League at an average of 2.77 per contest.

Zack Greinke (11-4, 4.21) gets the nod for Arizona, he’s making his fourth start and first at home, since missing six weeks with a strained left oblique. Greinke most recently had a streak of eight straight winning decisions broken in a loss to Boston on August 14th. 

Greinke is 5-3 at home and has received plenty of support this season. After yesterday’s setback, I think the home side comes into this one focused and finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals.

After falling 7-4 on Tuesday, I’m expecting the home side to find a way to get the job done tonight.

The visitors hand the ball to Jacob DeGrom (7-6, 2.63 ERA) has been as consistent as the Mets could possibly have asked for this season, but he does come into this one off a dud, getting shelled for eight runs off a whopping 13 hits over five innings in a road loss to San Fran on Thursday. If DeGrom has had one weak area this year, it would have to be his play on the road where he’s just 2-4 with a 3.88 ERA.

The home side counters with Carlos Martinez (11-7, 3.24) who has gotten better as the season has progressed, most recently coming off a gem vs. Houston on Wednesday, giving up one run off three hits while striking out seven in the 8-2 win. Martinez now has at least 11 groundball outs in six of his last ten outings and note that he’s been particularly sharp in all “night” games this year, going 6-4 with a 3.48 ERA. 

DeGrom has been the victim of poor run support all season and I have a hard time seeing the inconsistent Mets mustering much offense tonight. All things considered, I feel we’re getting a great price on the revenge-minded home side. Play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Tigers (8:10 EST).

I think this is a bigger mismatch that what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Matt Boyd (4-2, 3.93 ERA) who will look to keep the momentum rolling after the Tigers cruised to an 8-3 win on Tuesday. Detroit is now 8-2 versus the Twins in 2016. 

Detroit is making a late season surge and it’s been deadly at the plate, in all the Tigers would blast out 14 hits on Tuesday with five players posting multi-hit efforts. 

Boyd pitched six shutout frames vs. Minnesota in mid July, stirking out seven and walking just one in the victory. He’s now won each of his last four outings overall. 

Tyler Duffey (8-9, 5.93) gets the call for the home side and in his only start versus the Tigers he’d get shelled for four runs over 6 1/3’s innings back on April 30th at Target Field.

I’m giving Boyd the big nod on the mound and the Tigers the big nod at the plate and all things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting excellent value on the visitors in this one. Play on Detroit.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (3:40 EST).

I think home field advantage will be the difference maker in this evenly matched contest.

The visitors hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka (10-4, 3.24 ERA) who comes in off a strong outing vs. the punchless Angels on Friday, going seven scoreless and striking out nine in the eventual 7-0 victory. Tanaka has been great this year and it’s hard to point out anythinig negative about the Japanese hurler, I simply feel that this is a bad spot for him.

The home side counters with Hisashi Iwakuma (14-8, 3.78) who comes into this one as one of the hottest pitchers in the league right now, posting a minuscule 1.69 ERA and 19:2 K/W ratio in 26.2 innings spanning four starts in August. 

Tanaka and the Yanks beat Iwakuma and the Mariners 4-3 in April. New York’s 5-1 win yesterday dropped the M’s two games back in the AL for the second wild-card spot. 

I love the home side to exact some revenge here and definitely think that the price is right with Iwakuma. Play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Cleveland Indians (3:35 EST).

I’m 1-1 so far in this series, as I took the Tribe in the opener and also in their 9-1 beatdown loss on Tuesday. Suffice it to say, I think the hard-hitting visitors recover and respond in the finale and find a way to get the job done once it’s all said and done.

Cleveland hands the ball to Trevor Bauer (9-5, 3.88 ERA) who looks to get his team back into the win column today. The Indians still have a 6 1/2 game lead over the Tigers for the AL Central lead. With a date vs. the Rangers next, a loss tonight would drop Cleveland a game behind Texas in the standings, so I’m not expecting this team to “look past” this golden opportunity. 

The visitors have to be feeling pretty confident in sending Bauer to the hill, he most recently held the Jays to two runs over eight innings while going on to strike out 13 in the process.

The home side counters with Kendall Graveman (9-8, 4.09) who has been all over the map this season as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned. He’s been decent of late, posting a 3.47 ERA over his last 15 starts. Note though that he’s never beaten Cleveland, going 0-2 with a 3.38 ERA in three career matchups. 

And if immediate recent history is any precedence, then the visitors have to be loving their chances this afternoon as when they faced Graveman earlier in the year, he’d give up four runs over six innings.

Oakland has been relegated to playing spoiler at this part of the season, but after yesterday’s big win, I think the A’s have a predictable letdown and the focused Indians become the beneficiaries. Play on Cleveland.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Dodgers (10:10 EST).

This is a very evenly matched contest and the oddsmakers clearly agree. For a couple of different reasons though, I think that Kenta Maeda and the home side have the advantage.

The Giants send ace Madison Bumgarner (12-7, 2.25 ERA) to the hill, he got a win versus the Mets on Thursday despite not being at his best, allowing four runs over five innings, giving up six hits and three walks. It’s hard to say anything negative about Bumgarner, he’s putting together the finest campaign of his career right now, but I simply feel this is a bad spot for the hard-throwing southpaw.

The home side counters with Maeda (12-7, 3.29) who gave up two runs over six innings while striking out nine with just three hits allowed in a victory over Philadelphia on Tuesday. If recent history is any precedence though, then Maeda has to be loving his chances as in his lone start against San Francisco this year he’d allow just one run off four scattered hits over seven innings to go along with seven K’s in the 3-1 victory back in mid April.

LA comes in with a ton of momentum after hammering the Reds 18-9 yesterday and I’m expecting the home side to continue the recent surge at the plate. Conversely, the Giants are now stumbling to the finish line as they’ve gone just 11-23 since the Mid Summer Classic (note that Bumgarner is already 0-1 with a pedestrian 4.09 ERA in two starts versus the Dodgers this year). 

I think Maeda and the Dodgers do just enough to secure the win today.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cleveland Indians (10:05 EST).

Despite looking shaky in his first outing back from the DL, I think Danny Salazar and the surging Indians offer great value in this spot.

Salazar (11-4, 3.57 ERA) was pulled after the first inning versus the White Sox on Thursday after he gave up three runs and walked three batters over a 34-pitch effort. Coaching staff didn’t want to tax Salazar in his first outing back from injury, but he would be spotted in the bullpen throwing in order to reach his pitch count for the game. I’m not going to read too much into that outing though, Salazar is cleared to go tonight and he’ll be looking to improve upon his already impressive 6-2, 2.67 ERA record on the road to date.

The home side counters with rookie Sean Manaea (4-8, 4.73) who has looked brilliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others. Manaea most recently was shelled for five runs off nine hits over six innings in a loss to Texas on Wednesday. Note that this is a spot that Manaea has consistently struggled in going just 3-6 with a ballooned 5.30 ERA in all “night” games.

I played Cleveland last night and got the 1-0 victory once it was all said and done and suffice it to say, I think the red hot visitors have a prime opportunity to keep the momentum rolling. I’m giving Salazar the nod in this matchup, the Tribe the big nod at the plate and all things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting Cleveland at an excellent price this evening.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST). 

I think this is a bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors turn to Rob Whalen (1-2, 5.73 ERA) who gave up three runs over six innings in a loss to the Nationals on Thursday. It was a decent effort compared to his first two starts, but clearly the book is still out on the rookie. Note that Whalen is 0-1 with a 7.36 ERA on the road thus far.

The home side counters with Archie Bradley (4-8, 5.04) who has struggled this year, most recently lasting just 4.2 innings vs. the Padres on Thursday while going on to give up four earned runs.

Arizona comes in off a 9-8 win in yesterday’s series opener and I think it will build off that performance. For arguments sake, lets call these starters a “wash.” 

But despite their offensive surge yesterday, I think the Braves are at a big disadvantage at the plate. I also think that he oddsmakers aren’t giving the home side nearly enough respect in this matchup. Play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (10:05 EST).

The Indians knocked off the Blue Jays 3-2 yesterday after a two run homer in the bottom of the eighth inning, securing the Tribe the 2-1 series victory. They’ll now look to keep that momentum rolling in what is a clear pitching mismatch working in their favor.

The visitors hand the ball to Carlos Carrasco (8-6, 3.34 ERA) who earned a no-decision vs. the White Sox on Wednesday, going 6.2 innings and allowing five runs off eight hits, but giving up no walks and striking out 11. It was a bit of a mixed bag, but not a horrible effort overall. Carrasco has now posted 28 K’s over his last 20.2 innings of work and he’ll now be looking to improve upon his highly impressive 5-3, 1.97 ERA road record.

The home side counters with Andrew Triggs (0-1, 4.98) who has strung together a couple of decent outings. The book is still out on Triggs though, who clearly draws a tough task in having to face the hard-hitting Indians (note that Triggs owns a poor 4.98 ERA in all “night” games to date).

Momentum is a very real thing and it is a factor in which the oddsmakers often have a hard time in properly quantifying into a line. And that’s the case here i think. The Indians have won eight of their last 11 and I look for them to carry that momenum over into what is a very favorable matchup to open this series. Play on Cleveland.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New York Mets (8:05 EST).

New York is fighting for a wild card spot and managed to pull away for a convincing 9-5 victory yesterday afternoon. Suffice it to say, I think the visitors will build off that win and expect the consistent Noah Synergaard to easily outduel his volatile counterpart Jeff Samardzija.

Syndergaard (10-7, 2.76 ERA) comes in off a hard-fought victory over Arizona on Tuesday, giving up four runs (just two earned) off seven hits to go along with two walks compared to eight K’s over 5.2 innings of work. Syndergaard would induce 16 swinging strikes in that one and has now struck out at least six opponents in each of his last six outings. Note that “Thor” has been excellent on the road this year (5-3, 2.98), but even better in all “night” games (2.77 ERA).

Samardzija (10-8, 4.24) gave up three runs off six hits over six innings in a no-decision versus Pittsburgh on Tuesday. I’m going to caution in reading too much into the decent performance though as it was in fact Samardzija’s first quality outing since early July. Note that he hasn’t struck out more than six opponents since late May and owns a pedestrian 4.13 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year.

The return of slugger Yoenis Cespidis is already paying dividends for New York, after a 15-day stay on the DL and a one-hit performance on his return Thursday, he’d go on to hit a pair of home runs on Saturday. 

I think the hungry Mets find a way to get the job done again in this favorable matchup.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Detroit Tigers (1:10 EST).

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, for the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching. Both of these starting pitchers have endured shaky stretches this season, but Justin Verlander has been much more consistent and I think he’s going to easily outduel his volatile counterpart today.

The visitors hand the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez (2-5, 5.11 ERA) who after a brutal start to the year, has really turned things around of late. Rodriguez though left his last outing after four innings with a left hamstring issue and while he will be making his scheduled start today, one does definitely have to wonder if he’s at 100% or not? Also note that he owns a poor 5.14 ERA on the road thus far.

Verlander (12-7, 3.44) comes in off his first poor outing since the All Star break, allowing five runs (just three earned) over seven innings in a setback to the now red hot Royals on Tuesday. He’d allow an uncharacteristic three home runs. No need to hit the panic button though if you’re a Verlander fan in my opinion, the hard-throwing right-hander is still 4-1 with a tiny 1.98 ERA and 56 K’s over 50 innings since the Mid Summer Classic and note that he’s also 7-4 with respectable 3.39 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season.

For this pick I’m concentrating completely on the starting pitchers and in my opinion, Verlander should be a much bigger fav in this matchup. Lay the price on Detroit.

***UPDATE: PITCHING CHANGE NOTE: Henry Owens (0-0, 5.11) is now getting the call for Boston. Owens is not an upgrade, so this play is STILL VALID. Note that Owens looked horrible in a three start stint for the Red Sox earlier in the year, giving up seven runs off 13 hits to go along with 13 walks over just 12.1 innings of work. Owens has also walked 74 batters in 119.1 minor league innings of work, which works out to be nearly six BB per nine frames.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Kansas City Royals (7:15 EST). 

I think this is a much bigger pitching mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and look for the home side to take full advantage, while it also tries to build off yesterday’s 5-4 victory (I had the Royals yesterday).

Ian Kennedy (7-9, 3.78 ERA) gets the call for KC, he comes in off a confidence building gem vs. the Tigers on Monday, giving up one run off five hits while also striking out five over seven innings in his team’s eventual 3-1 victory. Kennedy is arguably entering this contest throwing at his very best of the entire season, as over his last four starts he’s given up just three earned runs spanning 26 innings of work. 

The visitors counter with the volatile Hector Santiago (10-7, 4.80) who was shelled for five runs off seven hits over five innings in a loss to Houston on Tuesday. Santiago has struggled since coming over to Minnesota, giving up eight runs off 12 hits over just 10.1 innings. 

Kennedy and the defending champs have a big opportunity to string a couple of wins together this evening and I think that at this price, this is an opportunity that is just too good to turn down. Play on the Royals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST).

I think this is a bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and that swings the value onto the revenge-minded home side.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Fiers (8-6, 4.66 ERA) who was most recently shelled for five runs off seven hits to go along with two walks over just 4.2 innings in a loss to Toronto on Sunday. Fiers has gotten worse as the season has progressed and he’s been particularly horrible of late as he’s now allowed four or more runs in four of his last seven starts with an atrocious 2.3 HR/9 ratio in that span. And that’s bad news facing the hard-hitting Orioles today, as they’re the only team in MLB which has more dingers than the Jays!

Chris Tillman (15-4, 3.46) returns to the roation, out since August 11th. Tillman has been the very model of consistency this season and owns a highly respectable 3.58 ERA since the Mid Summer Classic. Tillman has to be feeling pretty confident today as he’s been dominating at home this year, going a near-perfect 8-1 with a 3.74 ERA.

This is a matchup which highly favors Baltimore and it will clearrly be looking to respond after yesterday’s embarrassing 15-8 setback. I’m laying the price on the Orioles.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST).

Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but for a number of different reasons I think this one favors Edinson Volquez and the home side which will look to build off yesterday’s commanding 8-1 victory.

The Twins hand the ball to the volatile Jose Berrios (2-3, 9.32 ERA) and he has for the most part been an absolute disaster this season. Note that Berrios has been particularly horrible in this spot as well, posint a deplorable 8.47 ERA on the road. 

Volquez (9-10, 4.95) most recently gave up four runs off ten hits over six innings in a no-decision vs. the White Sox on Tuesday. Volquez has struggled with game-to-game consistency, but he’s been decent at home, going 6-3 with a 4.00 ERA.

I’ll point out that Minnesota is just 15-29 (-9.5 units) this year vs. division foes, while Kansas City is 31-17 (+16.2 units) in the same position.

The defending champs know how to win the most “important” games (divisional contests) and I think everything points to another lop-sided blowout in their favor tonight as well. Play on Kansas City.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST).

Rick Porcello is putting together the finest campaign of his career. His young counterpart is treading in unchartered waters, but continues to impress with each outing. A couple of the league’s best go head-to-head on Friday night, but I think this one favors Michael Fulmer and the home side.

Porcello is 16-3 with a 3.30 ERA. Fulmer is 10-3 with a 2.25 ERA. Something has got to give today between these two competent starters and I believe it’s going to be a mental issue working against Porcello.

The Tigers managed to come back and win 4-3 in yesterday’s series opener and I think the home side can build off that performance as it looks to give a rude welcoming to Porcello, who returns to Detroit for the first time since being traded in 2014. As much as Porcello is trying to deflect the media attention, I have a hard-time envisioning the veteran not getting affected in some small way.

But for Fulmer it will just be business as usual tonight.

The oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe that this is a very evenly matched contest, but I definitely don’t agree with them. The value is simply too good to turn down on Fulmer and the Tigers today.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST).

I played this game on Wednesday afternoon and got -141 and it’s since come up into the -150 range. As long as you can find a line under -160, I’ll recommend a play on this game as I think Giants’ ace Madison Bumgarner will find a way to outduel Mets’ top guy Jacob DeGrom.

DeGrom (7-5, 2.30 ERA) has been the victim of poor run support this season. Most recently he’d allow just one run off three hits while striking out nine in a no-decision vs. San Diego on Saturday. It’s hard to say anything negative about DeGrom, he’s clearly been the best pitcher for the Metropolitans this year. I simply feel this is another bad spot for the hard-throwing right-hander.

Bumgarner (11-7, 2.11) will be looking to take advantage of the anemic Mets’ offense and he’ll also be trying to build off his most recent gem, giving up just three hits to go along with eight K’s over seven shutout innings in his team’s 6-2 win over Baltimore on Saturday. Note that Bumgarner has been particularly awesome at home this year, going 6-3 with a tiny 1.47 ERA thus far.

I’ll point out that the Mets are just 14-16 (-3.4 units) in their last 30 versus southpaws, while San Francisco is 4-2 (+1.7 units) in its last six as a home fav in the -150 to -175 range. 

As good as DeGrom has been this season, I’m still going to give Bumgarner the slight nod in this matchup. Play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (10:05 EST).

I think Seattle will build off yesterday’s 4-3 victory and expect Hisashi Iwakuma to continue his late season surge and find a way to outduel his counterpart tonight.

Iwakuma (14-7, 3.84 ERA) comes in off a win versus the A’s on Saturday, giving up three runs over 5.1 innings of work. Iwakuma has gotten progressively better as the season has worn on, he’ll now be looking to improve upon his respectable 10-3, 3.62 ERA record in all “night” games.

The home side counters with Matt Shoemaker (6-13, 4.22) who has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency has been concerned this year. Note that Shoemaker owns a pedestrian 5-8, 4.00 ERA in all “night” games thus far.

The Mariners are still in the hunt for the second wild card spot and they’ve been red hot in August, going 12-4 (+8.4 units). The Angels are moving in the opposite direction, clearly just going through the motions at this point, only 3-12 (-9.7 units) this month.

I’m giving Iwakuma the nod on the bump and the Mariners the nod at the plate and all things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting a very fair price on the visitors in this matchup. Play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST).

Despite the fact that Jose Fernandez has proven to be a “better” pitcher at home than on the road, I still think this one favors the Marlins’ ace and have no issues at all in laying what I feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price (I took it Wed. afternoon and got -153).

Fernandez (12-6, 2.81 ERA) most recently held San Francisco to one run over six innings while also going on to strike out six in the eventual no-decision. Fernandez continues to pound the zone, he’s already set a career high in K’s with 198 so far and he’ll now be looking to improve upon his already impressive 8-4, 2.65 ERA “night” game record.

For the most part Dan Straily (8-6, 3.75) has exceeded expectations this season, but he was a little “lucky” in a victory over Milwaukee on Saturday as he’d give up just two runs over 5.1 innings despite getting rocked for ten hits. And if Straily has had one clear weakness this season, it’s clearly been his play in all “night” games, going just 2-5 with a pedestrian 4.28 ERA.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, for the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching. Straily has been good this year, but Fernandez has been better. The Fish are in the hunt for a playoff spot and I think they’ll give their ace the support he needs to earn a hard-fought road victory. Play on Miami.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Reds (7:10 EST).

A couple of starters who have seen better days collide on Wednesday night, but I think this one favors Homer Bailey and the home side.

I had a play on Cincinnati last night and I’m expecting it to carry that momentum over into this one.

The visitors turn to the volatile Andrew Cashner (4-9, 5.10 ERA) who has shown flashes of brilliance at times this year, but who has for the most part been a major disappointment. And note that Cashner has consistently been at his very worst away from friendly confines, going 0-5 with an atrocious 7.03 ERA on the road thus far.

Bailey (2-1, 4.30) comes in off a confidence building gem versus Milwaukee on Friday, striking out 11 over six scoreless frames. Bailey would give up just three hits and a walk while also posting 16 swinging strikes. Bailey makes his season debut at home tonight and will be looking to improve upon his already impressive 21:5 K/W ratio over his 14.2 innings this year.

Miami is hanging around for the second Wild Card spot, but I think a rash of injuries, which includes sluger Giancarlo Stanton and five others, catches up to the team once again tonight. I’ll also give Bailey the nod in this matchup and all things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting a very fair price on the home side tonight. Play on Cincinnati.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Toronto Blue Jays (1:05 EST).

The Blue Jays rallied in the latter innings to crush the Yankees 12-6 yesterday and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar result this afternoon.

Toronto will now look to take a stranglehold on the AL East with another convincing victory today and it has to be feeling pretty confident in sending ace JA Happ to the hill.

Happ (16-3, 2.96 ERA) comes in off a gem vs. the Astros on Thursday, allowing one run off four hits while striking out six and walking just one in his team’s eventual 4-1 victory. Toronto hasn’t lost a Happ start since early June. Note that Happ has given up one or zero runs in five of his last six starts and is the AL leader in victories. 

CC Sabathia (7-9, 4.20 ERA) gets the call for the home side, he’s been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency has been concerned, most recently he’d give up three earnd runs off four hits to go along with three walks over six innings in his team’s 6-3 win over Tampa Bay on Friday. 

I’ll caution in reading too much into the decent effort though as he’d been shelled for eight runs over his previous two starts. Note that this is a spot in which Sabathia has struggled in all year, just 2-6 with a pedestrian 4.78 ERA at home and an even worse 1-6, 5.11 ERA in all day contests.

Happ has been good on the road (6-2, 3.15), but awesome in all day games, going 8-1 with a tiny 2.63 ERA. All things considered, I think this is a very fair price. Play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (10:05 EST).

Jon Paxton was the scheduled starter for the Mariners today, but he’s been scratched. Regardless, I think Seattle will build off yesterday’s 3-2 victory as it continues its hunt for the second wild card spot in the competitive American League.

Ariel Miranda (1-0, 6.00 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors. Miranda would start in 19 games at Triple-A Norfolk before being acquired by the M’s and would post a respectable 3.93 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Note that during his only start in the big leagues, he’d give up two runs over six innings while striking out five. 

The home side counters with the volatile Jhoulys Chacin (3-8, 5.84) who was shelled for seven earned runs in just 1.1 innings in a loss to the Tribe on Thursday. Chacin owns a poor 1.53 WHIP over his 16 starts and has been particularly ineffective in all “night” games this year, going just 3-7 with a ballooned 5.51 ERA. 

Seattle is surging, 11-3 (+8.3 units) in August and everything points to that surge continuing tonight. The Angels are moving in the opposite direction right now, just 2-11 (-9.4 units) so far this month.

For this pick though I’m mainly concentrating on the starting pitching and think that Miranda has a big advantage over his clearly struggling veteran counterpart this evening. All things considered, I think this is a very fair price, play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (9:40 EST).

I had Bartolo Colon and the Mets in yesteday’s 10-6 loss. Clearly I’m not very happy with that result, but I’ll look to bounce back today as I’m expecting the visitors to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night (note, I played this one yesterday afternoon and got -146. The line has since come up. I’ll recommend a play on this as long as you can get for -160 or better).

Before taking two of three from the Padres over the weekend, the Mets dropped three straight to the Diamondbacks at home last week. It’s quadruple revenge time for New York, which looks to bounce back by sending ace Noah Syndergaard (9-7, 2.75 ERA) to the hill, he’d most recently give up three runs and strike out six over five innings in a loss to this very Arizona team on Thursday. Syndergaard has scuffled since the All Star break, but now has a big opportunity to avenge last week’s loss and to improve upon his already impressive 2.96 road ERA.

The home side counters with Braden Shipley (2-1, 2.96) who took the Mets by surprise last Thursday, giving up just three hits over seven scoreless innings of work. Shipley has looked decent by posting three straight quality starts, but note that this is a spot that Arizona has struggled in for bettors all season, going just 34-53 (-16.4 units) vs. right-handed starters. 

It’s a critical period for New York, which needs to start stringing some victories together if it has any hopes at all in playing in the postseason. I think Syndergaard will get the better of his younger counterpart in the end, play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cincinnati Reds (7:10 EST).

Miami won yesterday’s contest 6-3, but is going to be forced to call up Jose Urena (1-3, 6.69 ERA) to make this evening’s start and suffice it to say, everything points to a “long” night for the 24 year old.

Long story short, Urena has been a complete disaster in the big leagues. Urena will need to fill the void left by Adam Conley, but that will clearly be easier said than done. Not only does Urena own the poor 6.69 ERA, but he also has a 1.57 WHIP in 19 appearances and three starts for Miami this year. In his last start back at the end of July he’d get shelled for eight runs over just 4.1 innings. 

The home side counters with Anthony DeSclafani (6-1, 3.11) who has exceeded the Reds’ expectations this year. DeSclafani comes in off his first loss of the season but is surely feeling confident in this position as not only is he 3-1 with a very respectable 3.58 ERA in all “night” games, but he’s also a perfect 3-0 with a tiny 1.93 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: MLB handicapping primarily comes down to the starting pitching. And when judging starting pitching, “recent performance” is often the best indicator we have when looking at a player from start to start. 

In my opinion, DeSclafani should be a much bigger fav in this spot. It’s time to make the books pay for their mistake, play on Cincinnati.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the LA Dodgers (7:05 EST).

I played the Dodgers at -155. That’s about the largest chalk you’ll ever see me lay on a baseball game, but in my opinion, it’s well worth it in this case.

The visitors hand the ball to Kenta Maeda (11-7, 3.31 ERA), he’d allow three runs off six hits to go along with four K’s over five innings to beat these very Phillies a week ago. Maeda has been particularly sharp on the road this year, going 7-2 with a 3.28 ERA thus far.

The home side counters with Vince Velasquez (8-4, 3.94) who was rocked for nine runs off 11 hits and two walks over just 4.2 innings in a loss to these very Dodgers last week. Velasquez has been much better at home than on the road, but note that Philadlephia is a poor 4-6 (-1.5 units) this season as a home dog in the +125 to +150 range.

The Phillies’ bullpen is gassed, they’ve had to use an average of 3.6 relief pitchers per game for nearly five innings per contest over Philadelphia’s last 14 games overall. This is another major factor working in favor of the the Dodgers today as well.

I think LA and Maeda take full advantage of this favorable situation. Play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Seattle Mariners (10:05 EST).

I think Felix Hernandez and the Mariners have a distinct advantage in this matchup.

Fernandez (6-4, 3.39 ERA) comes in off a gem vs. the Tigers on Wednesday, allowing just one run off three hits to go along with eight K’s in what would turn out to be a no-decision in the end. This was by far “The Kings” best performance since coming off the DL following the Mid Summer Classic and he’s now looking to improve upon his respectable 3-2, 3.46 ERA road record.

The home side counters with the volatile Ricky Nolasco (4-9, 5.14) who struck out six Cubs and gave up just two runs over six innings on Wednesday. In his first start for the Angels he gave up three home runs and five runs overall, so this last outing was definitely a whole lot better. Nolasco though has been a shell of his former self this season and note that home field advantage has been anything but for the struggling veteran this year as he’s 0-4 with a 5.30 ERA in friendly confines thus far.

Note that Seattle is 5-2 (+2.4 units) this season as a road fav in the -125 to -150 range and 45-29 (+12 units) vs. right-handed starters, while LA is a horrible 34-51 (-16.5 units) vs. right-handed starters and only 5-8 (-2.6 units) as a home dog in the +100 to +150 range.

I’m going to give Hernandez the big nod in this matchup and that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the visitors today. Lay the price on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New York Mets (9:40 EST).

I think the venerable Bartolo Colon will find a way to outduel his inconsistent counterpart today.

Colon (10-6, 3.35 ERA) comes in off a gem versus these very Diamondbacks, giving up just one run off seven hits while walking one and striking out eight over seven innings of work last week. Colon would get a no-decision for his impressive effort unfortunately though. Colon has been far from perfect this season, but he’s been better than what the Mets could possibly have hoped for before it began and the veteran will now look to improve upon his respectable 6-3, 3.22 ERA road record.

The home side counters with the volatile Robbie Ray (5-11, 4.57) who comes in off a decent outing vs. the Mets on Wednesday, going seven shutout frames in what turned out to be a no-decision in the end. I’ll caution in reading too much into one good performance though, prior to that Ray had thrown just one quality start in his last eight tries. And note that Ray is just 3-5 with a poor 5.40 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year.

With yesterday’s 5-1 win over the Friars, the Mets were able to post back-to-back victories for the first time since before the Mid Summer Classic. Winning is contagious and I think the hungry Metropolitans find a way to get the job done once it’s all said and done this evening. Play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST).

Barring almost a miracle, the Kansas City Royals won’t be going to the postseason again. I think Daniel Norris and the home side take advantage of this inconsistent defending champion. 

Kansas City is coming off an 11-4 win at Minnesota yesterday and I think is set-up for a letdown here. The Royals lost two of three in their first series at Comerica this year and I think they’re going to once again have troubles this week.

The visitors hand the ball to Ian Kennedy. He’s looked a lot better of late, but note that he’s gone winless in his last eight starts overall. 

Detroit comes into this series with a ton of momentum, it’s coming off back-to-back shutout wins over the Rangers, including a 7-0 complete game effort by rookie Michael Fulmer on Sunday. 

Norris will make his second start for the Tigers since returning from Triple-A Toledo, he’d most recently give up one run off seven hits over five innings at Seattle on Tuesday. 

I’ll point out that Kansas City is just 12-15 (-2.2 units) this year versus southpaws, while Detroit is 44-38 (+11.9 units) versus right-handed starters.

I think the price is right here and expect the home side to find a way to deliver the goods once it’s all said and done. Play on the Tigers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the San Francisco Giants (4:05 EST).

I think this is a bigger pitching mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

Wade Miley (7-10, 4.98 ERA) heads to the mound for the Orioles, he comes in off a decent outing versus the Athletics, giving up two runs off six hits over six innings. Miley has looked brilliant at times this year but for the most part has been a major disappointment, his 89:37 K:W ratio along with serving up 19 home runs in 21 starts is a testament to that fact. Note that Miley has been particularly pedestrian on the road this season as well, going 4-5 with a 4.84 ERA.

San Francisco turns to Johnny Cueto (13-3, 2.93), who comes in off an outing to forget versus the Fish on Monday, giving up five runs over five innings, also managing to strike out five. Cueto put together a blistering first half and has predictably regressed in the second, posting a poor 5.02 ERA in five outings since the Mid Summer Classic. 

But I think Cueto has a big opportunity to bounce back today in this interleague matchup as not only is he a very respectable 3-2 with a 3.61 ERA in all day games, but he’s also 5-2 with a 2.63 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far.

I think the home side builds off yesterday’s 6-2 victory and finds a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon in what is another favorable pitching matchup for it. Play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Colorado Rockies (1:35 EST).

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, for the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching. In this particular matchup, I think that Tyler Chatwood and the Colorado Rockies have a distinct advantage.

There is no bigger “Jekyll and Hyde” hurler in the league right now than Chatwood (10-7, 3.58 ERA), who comes into this one off a gem vs. the Rangers on Tuesday, giving up two runs off five hits while striking out eight over 6.2 innings, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his effort. Chatwood has now given up two or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts. Note that he’s just 4-7 with a 5.43 ERA at hitter friendly Coors Field, but a lights out 6-0 with a 1.30 ERA on the road.

Adam Morgan (1-7, 6.65) gets the nod for the home side, he was recalled from Triple-A to make this start. Morgan faced the Rockies at Coors field on July 7th and went five innings and gave up six runs off nine hits. 

Chatwood is 2-1 with a respectable 3.27 ERA in four career matchups vs. the Phillies and I think he’ll add to those numbers with another impressive outing on the road. Play on Colorado.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Chicago White Sox (1:10 EST). 

I think this is an interleague matchup which highly favors southpaw Chris Sale (14-5, 3.16 ERA) and the visiting White Sox.

Sale (14-5, 3.16 ERA) most recently allowed three runs off seven hits to go along with seven K’s over seven innings in a no-decision versus Kansas City on Tuesday. Sale has four consecutive quality road starts but has gone 0-3 for his efforts due to a lack of run support. Sale has been at his best on the road though and I’m expecting that trend to carry over here, note that he’s 7-3 with a very respectable 2.28 ERA away from friendly confines thus far.

The Fish counter with Tom Koehler (9-8, 3.83), who comes in off a decent outing vs. San Francisco, giving up no runs over seven innings of work in the victory. Koehler has been throwing much better of late, but he’s been inconsistent in all day games, going just 2-5 with a pedestrian 4.89 ERA. 

Sure Sale has regressed a little since the his blistering first half, but I still think he’s at an entirely different level than Koehler. Sales dominance on the road, combined with Koehler’s struggles in day contests make the White Sox the correct call in this one.

Good luck…Larry