The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (10:10 EST).

I think this is a bigger mismatch on the mound that what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Jordan Zimmermann (5-5, 5.35 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits while striking out six over eight innings in a 2-1 loss to Arizona on Wednesday. Zimmermann has been better of late, but note that he’s consistently been at his most inconsistent on the road this year by going 0-3 with a balllooned 6.35 ERA.

The home side counters with Ariel Miranda (6-3, 4.17) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Twins on Thursday, giving up six runs off ten hits over four innings in the eventual setback. Previous to that though the southpaw had allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last six outings, so I’m not reading too much into one crummy peformance.

And that Miranda has been at his absolute best in front of the home town crowd this year, so far 3-1 with a very respectable 2.14 ERA.

I’ll point out as well that Detroit is just 9-14 (-5.1 units) this season in road games with a money line in the +150 to -150 range, while Seattle is 10-4 (+4.4 units) as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mariners.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (8:40 EST).

I think the hard-hitting home side offers great value in this spot. Coors field is the “great equalizer” of ballparks and I look for German Marquez to take advantage.

The visitors hand the ball to Zack Greinke (8-3, 3.00 ERA) who gave up five unearned runs off five hits and two walks over 5.2 innings against Detroit on Tuesday. 

Greinke has now posted just one quality start in his last four trips to the hill. 

Marquez (5-3, 4.19) comes in off a gem against Pittsburgh on Wednesday, allowing one run off four hits over five innings in the 5-1 victory. Marquez has struggled with consistency at times this year, but he continues to put together a strong campaign.

I think Greinke has another letdown in this tough venue and as mentioned off the top, I look for Marquez to take advantage. Play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Twins (8:10 EST).

I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. 

The visitors turn to Derek Holland (5-6, 3.79 ERA) who comes in off a decent start against Baltimore on Tuesday, giving up one run off eight hits over six innings in the victory. It was a battle for Holland, who allowed double-digit baserunners for a fourth consecutive start. 

Note that Holland is a pedestrian 3-3 with a 4.63 ERA on the road this year.

The home side counters with ace Ervin Santana (8-4, 2.56) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Mariners on Wednesday, giving up five runs off nine hits over five innings. 

Santana’s peripherals suggest that rockier times are coming, but he’s been consistent at home this year with a 3.23 ERA.

And I’ll point out as well that this is a spot in which the Twins have done well in this year for bettors, going 9-7 (+2.6 units) against southpaws, while Chicago has struggled in this position by going a poor 19-29 (-1.5 units) against right-handed starters. 

I like Santana to outduel his inconsistent counterpart. Play on Minnesota.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (7:35 EST).

I like the Giants to bounce back after yesterday’s loss and take advantage of a struggling Julio Teheran.

The visitors hand the ball to Matt Moore (2-7, 6.00 ERA) who will clearly be eager to get back into the winners circle tonight. Most recently he was shelled for eight runs off 11 hits while striking out seven over just three innings in a loss at Colorado on Thursday. 

Moore has been horrible on the road (0-4, 9.24) and respectable at home (2-3, 3.07). Suffice it to say, I think this large home-road discrepancy begins to stabilize though. 

Teheran (6-4, 4.86) gave up two runs off six hits while striking out three over seven innings in a 13-2 win over Washington on Wednesday. 

Teheran for the most part has been solid this year, but note that he’s consistently been at his most inconsistent in front of the home town crowd, just 1-4 with a ballooned 7.25 ERA.

I like Moore to match Teheran inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to the visitors. Play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (7:05 EST).

I like the Indians to build off last night’s lop-sided win as they look to take advantage of a struggling Chris Tillman.

The visitors hand the ball to Josh Tomlin (4-8, 5.83 ERA) who gave up four runs off seven hits and two walks while striking out seven over five innings in a victory over the Dodgers on Thursday. Tomlin’s low strand rate and high opponents’ BABIP both suggest that so far he’s been the victim of some bad luck this year. 

Tilllman (1-5, 8.07) though has been terrrible in every facet of the game this season, most recently getting shelled for five runs off 11 hits and one walk over 5.1 innings in a loss to the White Sox on Thursday. The right-hander has now allowed 14 earned runs over his last two starts spanning just 6.2 innings of work. 

I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is 11-6 (+2.7 units) this season as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Baltimore is just 14-20 (-7.3 units) following a loss. 

I think Tomlin and the Tribe offer great value in this spot. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the odddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Leake (5-6, 3.14 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Brewers on Wednesday, allowing six runs off nine hits and two walks to go along with three strikeouts. 

Leake posted a 1.91 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over his first nine starts and has since given up 18 runs over his last 24.2 innings of work.

Note though that the right-hander has been at his best on the road this season, so far 4-2 with a 2.95 ERA.

The home side counters with the volatile Jeremy Hellickson (5-6, 4.91), who after putting together a decent April, has been an absolute disappoinment ever since, going just 1-5 with a 6.89 ERA and a poor 23/20 K/W ratio spanning his last 47 innings of work. 

Note that Hellickson has consistently been at his most inconsistent at home as well, just 2-2 with a 5.21 ERA.

I’ll also point out that St. Louis has done well in this spot for bettors by going 17-12 (+2.2 units) against clubs with losing records, while Philadelphia has struggled in this position by going just 12-34 (-17.8 units) following a loss.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the San Francisco Giants (7:30 EST).

Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Johnny Cueto (5-6, 4.57 ERA) who comes in off a loss to Kansas City on Wednesday, giving up five runs off ten hits and three walks with five strikeouts over six innings of work. Cueto was done in by the long-ball (giving up three of them).

I’ll point out though that Cueto was 10-2 with a 2.78 ERA on the road last year and while he’s struggled away from friendly confines this season, his track record suggests that he’ll be able to get things under control. A matchup against the inconsistent Braves’ line-up is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked in my opinion.

The home side counters with RA DIckey (4-5, 5.12) who gave up eight runs off eight hits across five innings in a loss to Washington on Tuesday. Dickey for the most part has struggled this season in every facet of the game.

Both teams have also struggled with consistency at the plate this year, so I’m calling that area a “wash.” However, I’m giving Cueto the nod on the bump in this matchup and in my opinion, that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the visitors. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Reds (7:10 EST).

I think Scott Feldman and the Reds offer great value in this spot against the inconsistent Jake Odorizzi.

Feldman (5-5, 4.29 ERA) comes in off a 6-2 loss to San Diego, giving up four runs while striking out six over five innings of work. Prevoius to the sub-par effort though he’d thrown a gem, giving up zero runs over seven innings to St. Louis. Feldman had a blow up in the first inning against the Padres and then settled down completely after that. I think he carries over that momentum here.

Odorizzi (4-3, 3.77) was blasted for five runs off five hits and three walks over four innings in a fortunate no-decision to Toronto on Wednesday. He struggled with control, thowing only 55 of his 99 pitches for strikes while also issuing at least three free passes for the fourth time in his last five starts. 

Odorizzi’s poor 5.22 FIP suggests that even more unstable times are on the horizon as well. 

I like Feldman to outduel his inconsistent counterpart and I look for the Reds to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (8:05 EST).

I’ve been back and forth on this series, which isn’t something I normally do. However, I feel that Joe Musgrove is definitely the correct call here, as I expect David Price to continue his slow progression after his major elbow surgery. 

Price (1-1, 5.09 ERA) gave up thre runs off four hits and four walks while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision against the Phillies on Tuesday. It was the second straight outing in which Price has walked four batters. Note that he owns an uninspiring 5.29 ERA on the road so far this year.

Musgrove (4-5, 4.81) returned from the DL to give up two runs off five hits and one walk over five innings in an eventual loss to Texas on Monday. He has been improving as the season has progressed and has posted a quality start in four of his last five trips to the hill. 

Musgrove has a significant advantage in throwing at home today and I believe he’ll do more than enough to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Play on the Astros.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Royals (3:35 EST).

Jason Vargas is dominating this year and he isn’t getting nearly enough respect in this matchup. 

Vargas (9-3, 2.10 ERA) gave up one run off five hits and a walk over seven innings in an 8-1 win over San Francisco on Tuesday, also striking out six. Note that he’s been particularly effective on the road, 4-2 with a 2.45 ERA thus far (also an amazing 2-0 with a minuscule 0.96 ERA in all “day” games).

The home side counters wth JC Ramirez (6-4, 4.19) who comes in off a strong outing as well, going 6.2 innings against the Yanks on Tuesday and allowing two runs off five hits with three walks while striking out seven in what turned out to be a no-decision. 

Note though that previous to that Ramirez had been struggling, giving up 11 runs off 18 hits over 9.1 innings spanning two starts. 

Also note that he’s an uninspiring 2-5 with a 5.05 ERA at home as well.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and that’s what I’m primarily basing this selection on. Great value on the red hot Vargas, play on Kansas City.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (3:10 EST).

I had a play on the Rockies yesterday and I think they also offer great value in this spot as well.

The visitors turn to Ty Blach (4-4, 4.24 ERA) who gave up seven runs off ten hits and a walk over 5.2 innings in an 8-1 loss to Kansas City on Tuesday. Blach has been serviceable this year, but he’s struggled on the road in going just 2-2 with a ballooned 6.04 ERA. 

The home side counters with Tyler Chatwood (6-7, 4.16) who comes in off a gem against the Pirates on Tuesday, giving up one run off six hits with one walk while striking out five over six innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision.

Chatwood threw 65 percent of his 79 pitches for strikes and he’s currently riding an awesome streak which has seen him allow just three earned runs across 20 innings spanning three starts. 

Chatwood has struggled at home, but it’s an even playing field for everyone that comes to Coors.

And certainly it’s not going to be easy on Blach, who struggles on the road no matter where he is, let alone in the thin air of Colorado.

I’ll point out as well that San Francisco is just 8-16 (-10.7 units) this year in all “day” games, while the Rockies are 20-8 (+13.2 units) in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on Colorado.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Boston Red Sox (8:15 EST).

While he’s predictably struggled this year off a career best campaign in 2016, I think Red Sox starter Rick Porcello offers great value in this spot.

Porcello (3-8, 4.67 ERA) comes in off a dud against the Phillies on Monday, giving up five runs off ten hits while striking out four across six innings in an eventual no-decision. Porcello was rocked for four runs in the first inning and then settled down after that. 

While he’s just 1-3 on the road, it should be noted though that Porcello owns a respectable 3.76 ERA away from friendly confines.

The home side counters with David Paulino (0-0, 6.59) who was shelled for five runs off six hits and two walks while striking out four in a 12-6 loss to the Angels on Sunday. Paulino is filling in for Dallas Keuchel, but not doing a very good job of it obviously.

Over his last 13.2 innings of work Paulino has allowed ten runs off 19 hits.

The correct call here is Porcello, as the reigning AL Cy Young award winner gets untracked in this favorable matchup. Play on Boston.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (4:05 EST).

I simply feel that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Zack Godley (2-1, 2.44 ERA) who gave up two runs off two hits and a walk over 6.2 innings while striking out four in an eventual 3-2 victory over Milwaukee on Saturday. 

Since taking over Shelby Miller’s spot in the rotation, Godley has posted a 2.44 ERA and tiny 0.99 WHIP (he’s 2.84 ERA on the road thus far).

The home side counters with the volatile Jerad Eickhoff (0-7, 5.09) who comes in off a no-decision against Boston on Monday, allowing four runs off seven hits across six frames of work. 

Note that Eickhoff has been at his absolute worst this year when throwing in front of the home town crowd as well, so far 0-2 with a 5.46 ERA.

I’ll point out as well that Arizona is 31-18 (+12.6 units) this season against right-handed starters, while Philadelphia is just 14-33 (-17 units) in the same position.

In my professional opinion, this is the very defenition of “great line value.” Play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Colorado Rockies (3:10 EST).

The Rockies look for a third straight win in this four game series. Colorado took Game 1, 10-9 and then followed it up with a 10-8 victory last night. The San Francisco pitchers have struggled at Coors Field so far and I don’t think anything will change this afternoon with Matt Cain up next.

Cain (3-5, 5.22 ERA) was most recently shelled for five runs off seven hits over just four innings in a fortunate no-decision against Minnesota on Sunday. Over his last eight starts Cain has posted a 7.13 ERA and 1.0 K/W ratio. 

Cain has been sharp at home (3-2, 2.77), but horrible on the road (0-3, 8.40).

The home side counters with Kyle Freeland (7-4, 3.57) who comes in off a dud against the Pirates on Monday, allowing five runs off nine hits over 5.2 innings. Despite the sub-par effort, the rookie continues to look solid across the board, also sporting a 1.39 WHIP (and note that he’s been better at Coors Field as well this year with a 3.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP).

Freeland is also 5-1 with a 3.21 ERA in all “day” games.

I’ll also point out that San Francisco is just 8-16 (-10.7 units) in all “day” games this season, while Colorado is 20-8 (+13.2 units) in the same position. 

The bottom line is that the Giants have horrible starting pitching, their Rockies counterparts have clearly been better in this series and I think that trend carries over here. Coors Field is a nightmare and Cain has been at his absolute worst on the road. 

This line could/should easily be much higher. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the New York Yankees (9:35 EST).

I think the hard-hitting Yankees strike back on Friday night after falling 8-7 in Oakland on Thursday.

The visitors hand the ball to Luis Severino (5-2, 2.75 ERA) who comes in off a gem against Baltimore on Saturday, giving up one run off two hits with two walks to go along with eight K’s over seven innings for the victory. He was extremely effecient, needing just 89 pitches. 

Severino has now gone five straight starts with at least seven punchouts and allowing two or fewer runs. Note that he’s been particularly effective on the road this season as well by going 2-0 with a 2.17 ERA. 

The home side counters with Sean Manaea (6-3, 3.67) who gave up two runs off six hits over seven innings in a 7-2 victory over Tampa Bay on Saturday. Manaea has been getting better as the season has progressed.

However I’ll point out that this is a spot in which the A’s have struggled in mightily all year, going just 16-23 (-4.6 units) in all “night” games and only 19-30 (-10 units) against right-handed starters, while conversely the Yanks have excelled in this position by going 25-18 (+3.3 units) in all “night” games and 9-7 (+1.1 units) against southpaws.

I’m giving Severino the slight nod on the mound and the Yanks a big nod at the plate and with those two factors working in our favor, I’m going to lay the price with confidence tonight.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (8:10 EST).

Drew Pomeranz has been “hit-or-miss” all year for Boston and comes in off a dud. Since being re-inserted back into the starting rotation, Houston’s Mike Fiers has been “on fire” and suffice it to say, I think he’s not getting nearly enough respect in this matchup.

Pomeranz (6-4, 4.48 ERA) was most recently shelled for six runs off eight hits and two walks to go along with two K’s over 4.1 innings in an 8-3 loss to Detroit on Sunday. Pomeranz was coming off a decent three-game stretch, but his inconsistencies once again came back to haunt him in this one.

Fiers (4-2, 4.29) most recently gave up one unearned run off two hits and two walks over 7.1 innings against the Angels on Saturday, also striking out eight. Since his return to the rotation he’s given up four total runs over his last three starts combined (all victories), while posting a very respectable 20/6 K/W ratio over that span. 

I’ll point out as well that Boston is just 8-14 (-7.1 units) this season on the road when the money line is set between +125 to -125, while Houston is 3-1 (+1.2 units) in its last four as a home fav between -125 to -175.

Fiers is the correct call here. Great price on the home side.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals (7:10 EST).

I had a play on the Mets last night and they’d fall to the visiting Nationals. I don’t normally “flip flop” on a team from game-to-game, but MLB is different than other sports, as the starting pitchers have to be looked at seperately each night. And that’s the case with this one, as I think Steven Matz will struggle in his second start back from injury, while I look for Max Scherzer to continue his strong play as we head towards the break.

Scherzer (7-4, 2.36 ERA) comes in off a 5-1 loss to Texas on Sunday despite giving up just two earned runs off three hits with ten K’s over 7.1 solid innings of work. Over his last four trips to the mound Scherzer has now given up a grand total of four runs while striking out 48. 

Note that he’s been particularly effective on the road this season as well with a 5-1, 1.95 record/ERA.

Matz (1-0, 1.29) gave up one run off five hits and one walk while striking out two over seven innings in a victory over the Braves on Saturday. Matz looked pretty good in his season debut, but clearly that Nationals present a much stiffer test tonight.

And I’ll point out that New York is just 24-28 (-11.8 units) against right-handed starters this season, while Washington is 6-4 (+1.2 units) against left-handed starters.

For all the reason listed above, play on the Nationals.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST).

The Phillies come in off a big 1-0 win over the Red Sox last night and I think that they’ll carry that momentum over into what sets up as a nice mismatch on the mound for them in the opener of this three game weekend series.

The visitors hand the ball to Patrick Corbin (5-6, 5.38 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing against the Padres on Thurdsay, giving up three runs off eight hits with three walks over 5.2 innings for a victory. To go along with his ballooned 5.38 ERA, Corbin also sports an unimpressive 1.61 WHIP. 

And note that Corbin has been particularly useless on the road this season, going 0-5 with an atrocious 9.00 ERA.

The home side counters with Aaron Nola (3-4, 4.40), who like his counterpart today gave up three runs in his last start, but he’d unfortuantely suffer a loss against the Cards on Sunday, striking out six and walking two over five innings of work. 

Nola has been “hit-or-miss” this season, but note that the Phillies are 4-1 (+3 units) in their last five after shutting out an opponent in their previous game.

I’ll also point out that the Diamondbacks are only 15-17 (-1.2 units) on the road this season.

I think Nola outduels his volatile counterpart and I look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (8:40 EST).

Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe.

San Francisco starter Matt Moore (2-7, 5.28 ERA) has looked a lot better of late after a disastrous start to the 2017 campaign, but he’s still a horrible 0-4 with a 7.94 ERA on the road this year. 

Jeff Hoffman (4-0, 2.33) has taken advantage of his time this season, giving up seven runs through 27 frames of work, posting a tiny 0.74 WHIP and 34 strikeouts with just three walks. 

Note that Hoffman is 2-0 with a 3.29 ERA in all “night” games this year. 

I’ll also point out that San Francisco is just 16-27 (-14.1 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Colorado is 12-8 (+7.5 units) against left-handed starters.

For all the reasons listed above, play on Colorado.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST).

Both of these starting pitchers have looked great at times this year and very poor in others. While neither instills much confidence right now, I think this one favors Justin Verlander and the home side.

The visitors hand the ball to Alex Cobb (5-5, 4.29 ERA) is coming off a win over the A’s on Friday, holding them to one run over six innings. 

While he does own a winning 3-2 record in all “night” games this year, note that Cobb has a poor 5.01 ERA in such instances.

The home side counters with Verlander (4-4, 4.68) who gave up three runs off five hits over five innings in a no-decision against the Red Sox on Saturday. 

Verlander has been one of the league’s biggest “Jekyll and Hyde” hurlers this year though, going a poor 2-4 with a 6.40 ERA on the road, while going a stellar 2-0 with a tiny 2.10 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

I’ll point out as well that Tampa is just 1-3 (-2.1 units) in its last four against clubs with losing records, while Detroit is 3-1 (+2 units) in its last four following a loss.

I look for Verlander to continue his success in Detroit and to easily outduel his volatile counterpart. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST).

Washignton comes in off a deflating 13-2 loss at home to the Braves last night, while New York is off a confidene building 9-4 victory over the Cubs, taking two of three from the defending champs most recently. Gio Gonzalez has been very good for Washington this year, but so to has Robert Gsellman for the Mets. Ultimately I think this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for Washington and I look for Gsellman to take advantage.

Gonzalez (5-1, 2.91 ERA) gave up a single run over six innings while striking out nine in an unfortunate loss to the Rangers on Saturday.

Gonzalez has been good, but not perfect this year. Note that he sports a pedestrian 4.38 ERA on the road and a 4.25 ERA in all “night” games.

Gsellman (5-3, 4.95) comes in off a gem himself, going 6.2 scoreless innings against the Braves on Saturday, allowing just three hits and two walks while striking out four in the victory. 

Gsellman has been far from perfect this season either, but note that the Mets have performed well in this spot for bettors recently, going 3-1 (+2 units) in their last four against southpaws, while Washignton has been scuffling of late by going just 6-7 (-5.8 units) in the month of June.

I think Gsellman can match Gonzalez inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I think the advantage goes to the suddenly surging home side. Play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New York Yankees (10:05 EST)

I like the Yanks to bounce back after yesterday’s 3-2 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Michael Pineda (7-3, 3.39 ERA) who went seven innings and gave up one run off four hits and two walks while striking out eight in a win over the Red Sox on Thursday. 

Pineda had suffered his worst start of the year previous to that gem and now owns an impressive 9.4 K/9 ratio. 

The home side counters with Matt Shoemaker (6-3, 4.22) who earned a win over the Astros on Friday despite giving up four runs over seven frames of work. 

Shoemaker has looked a lot better of late after a shaky start to the campaign, but I’ll point out that the Angels have struggled mightily in this spot for bettors all season, going just 23-28 (-4.2 units) against right-handed starters and 0-2 (-2 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range.

And note that the Yanks have been dominant in this spot, going 29-16 (+11.5 units) against right-handed starters and 25-16 (+6 units) in all “night” contests.

I like Pineda to match Shoemaker inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel that the advantage goes to the hard-hitting Yankees. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SItuational Stunner is on the Minnesota Twins (8:10 EST).

I like the Twins to build off yesterday’s 20-7 beatdown victory and to find a way to get the job done on Wednesday with their “ace” on the mound.

The visitors hand the ball to Sam Gaviglio (2-1, 2.79 ERA) who gave up one earned run off four hits over five innings in a 9-2 win over Tampa on Saturday. I’ll caution in reading too much into one decent outing though as previous to that he’d been shelled for ten runs over 11 innings spanning two starts. Note that he’s been particularly average on the road as well with a 1-1, 4.85 record/ERA.

The home side counters with Ervin Santana (8-3, 2.20) who threw a four-hit shutout in a win at San Francisco on Friday. Previous to that he suffered his worst outing of the year (seven runs in four innings), but he bounced back easily to post his league-leading third shutout of the season. Note that Santana has been particularly tough at home as well with a 3-2, 2.63 record/ERA this season.

I’ll also point out that Seattle is just 21-23 (-2.3 units) in all “night” games this year, while Minnesota is 20-11 (+10.2 units) in the same position.

I’m giving Santana the big nod on the bump in this matchup and that makes this a price that I have no issues at all in laying. Play on the Twins.

Good luck…Larry

This is an 8* Wipeout Winner on the San Diego Padres (3:40 EST).

I like the home side to build off last night’s 6-2 victory. I had a play on the “over” in that one and it would go on to “push” unfortuantely.

Regardless, while neither of these starting pitchers instills much confidence, I think the home side has the advantage.

The visitors hand the ball to Amir Garrett (3-5, 7.40 ERA) who took a line-drive off his pitching hand in his last start and was pulled after just two innings of work. Garrett has been cleared to play this afternoon, but so far he’s been a complete disaster this season. Previous to the shortened start he gave up nine runs off seven hits and three walks over 2.2 innings in a loss to the Braves. 

Note that Garrett has been particularly horrible on the road as well this season, going 2-3 with an atrocious 8.14 ERA.

The home side counters with Jhoulys Chacin (5-5, 5.35) who comes in off a gem against Kansas City on Friday. Chacin could very well be the biggest “Jekyll and Hyde” hurler in the game right now, posting a 10.27 ERA on the road, compared to a 1.58 ERA across 40 innings in front of the home town crowd.

I think Chacin should be a much bigger favorite as he’s been absolutely “lights out” at home this year. Value to the home side, play on the Padres.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (7:10 EST).

I like the Cubs to bounce back after yesterday’s 6-1 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Jon Lester (3-4, 4.13 ERA) who most recently gave up four earned runs off six hits and a walk while striking out five over five innings in a loss to the Rockies on Thursday. Letser’s peripherals and track record suggest he can return to form though.

The home side counters with Zack Wheeler (3-3, 3.45 ERA) who gave up one run off six hits and three walks over seven innings in a no-decision against Texas on Wednesday. Wheeler has been decent, not great this season. 

I’ll point out though that from a trend based stand-point, they don’t get much stronger than this, as note that the Cubs are 56-24 (+20.6 units) in their last 80 as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while the Mets are just 4-8 (-5.4 units) this year at home with a money-line between +130 and -130.

I like Lester to get back on track and outduel his counterpart. Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The vistors hand the ball to Jacob Faria (1-0, 1.42 ERA), who was recalled from Triple-A Durham to make this start. Faria gets another crack at the big club with Matt Andriese back on the DL. 

The home side counters with Marco Estrada (4-4, 4.04) who has now been rumored to be on the trading block. Estrada has been solid this year, logging a team-high 78 innings and posting a sharp 90/20 K/W through 13 starts. If the Jays continue to fade, Estrada could fetch a good price.

Note that Estrada is 2-1 with a very respectable 3.89 ERA at home so far this year.

This is a tough spot for Faria. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Lay the price, play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Minnesota Twins (8:10 EST).

Neither starter instills much confidence, but I think the home side will bounce back here after falling 13-8 in San Francisco yesterday afternoon.

I had a play on the Giants in that one. I had a play on Minnesota on Saturday though and it would go on to cash as a slight dog.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Yovani Gallardo (2-6, 6.26 ERA) who was fortunate to receive a no-decision against the Twins on Wednesday after giving up five earned runs off six hits over seven innings. It was the second consecutive start that he’s given up five runs. Note that Gallardo is just 1-3 with a pedestrian 4.55 ERA on the road so far this season.

The home side counters with Adalberto Mejia (1-1, 4.18) who threw opposite Gallardo last week and who gave up three runs with five strikeouts over five innings. Since returning to the rotation in May, Mejia has posted a respectable 3.52 ERA and 19:9 K/W in that span. 

I’ll point out as well that Seattle is just 20-23 (-3.5 units) this year in all “night” games, while Minnesota is 20-10 (+11.4 units) in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Twins.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Chicago Cubs (7:10 EST).

Chicago broke a four-game losing slide with a victory over the Rockies last night and I like the defending champs to find a way to get the job done tonight as well.

The visitors hand the ball to John Lackey (4-6, 5.12 ERA) who gave up five runs while striking out six with no walks over six innings in a loss to the Fish on Wednesday. Lackey is now clearly struggling at 38 years old, but his long-term track record suggests that he can still bounce back (it’s worth noting as well that he’s elevated his strikeout rate from last year, which isn’t typical of pitchers that are on the decline).

The home side counters with the equally as struggling Jacob DeGrom (4-3, 4.75) who was shelled for eight runs off ten hits in a 10-8 loss to Texas on Tuesday. DeGrom’s peripherals suggest that he’s likely been the victim of some bad luck (3.18 xFIP), but that still doesn’t explain how awful he’s been of late, allowing 15 runs over his last eight innings of work. Note that DeGrom is 1-2 with a pedestrian 4.08 ERA at home this year.

I think Lackey can match DeGrom inning for inning and in a scenario like that, the advantage goes to the hungry Cubs’ line-up. Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner on the Colorado Rockies (7:05 EST).

I think this pitching matchup favors the Rockies.

The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Freeland (7-3, 3.21 ERA) who gave up one run off six hits with five K’s over six innings in a victory over the hard-hitting Indians on Wednesday. 

Freeland has been better on the road than at home (not surprising obviously) this season, going 4-0 with a 3.18 ERA away from friendly confines thus far.

The home side counters with Jameson Taillon (2-1, 3.31) who will make his first start since May 3rd after undergoing surgery for testicular cancer. On Wednesday he threw six innings of work with Triple-A Indianapolis and gave up five runs. 

Note that Taillon owns a poor 4.76 ERA in front of the home town crowd to this point.

I’ll point out as well that Colorado has in fact performed very well for bettors in this spot all year, going 29-15 (+13.5 units) against right-handed starters, while Pittsburgh is just 6-11 (-4.8 units) against southpaws.

This is a tough opponent for Taillon to face in his first start back from the DL, while Freeland comes into this one on top form. The value is simply too good to turn down, play on the hard-hitting Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (4:05 EST).

I had a play on the Twins last night and they’d go on to win 3-2 as fairly nice underdogs. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting the home side to bounce back in the finale.

The visitors hand the ball to Nik Turley (0-0, 0.00 ERA) who has been recalled from Triple-A Rochester to make this start. Turley has been great between Double and Triple-A, but clearly he’s been thrown to the wolves in his first start in the big leagues tonight.

The home side counters with veteran Matt Cain (3-5, 4.73) who comes in off an outing to forget in which he gave up five runs off ten hits and two walks over five innings in a 5-2 loss to Milwaukee on Tuesday. 

Cain opened the season promisingly, but is now scuffling. It’s important to note though that he’s 0-3 with a ballooned 8.40 ERA on the road, but 3-2 with a tiny 1.82 ERA. in front of the home town crowd.

I like Cain to continue his dominant ways in San Francisco and expect Turley to struggle in this difficult atmosphere. All signs point to a big bounce back today for the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Junior Guerra (1-0, 1.83 ERA) who gave up two runs off seven hits and one walk over five innings in a no-decision against San Francisco on Monday. Guerra entered that contest with a sparkling 0.95 WHIP, but the ten baserunners he allowed were more than in any of his other starts this season. While his ERA remains elite, his 15:9 K/W ratio over 19.2 innings point to some immediate regression.

The home side counters with Zack Godley (1-1, 2.39), who returns to the big club after a stint in Triple-A. The 27 year old has thrown well for his team, posting a 2.39 ERA and 32:12 K/W ratio through 37.2 innings (six starts). 

Note that Godley has been particularly effective at home as well this year, going 1-0 with a tiny 1.93 ERA.

Guerra’s numbers are unsustainable, a fact backed up by his suspect peripherals. Godley is the correct call here. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Tampa Bay Rays (5:10 EST).

I had a play on the Rays last night and they’d go on to easily win 13-4. I look for the home side to build off that convincing performance and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night on Saturday as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Sean Manaea (5-3, 3.81 ERA) who most recently gave up two earned runs off four hits and three walks over six innings in a 5-3 win over Toronto on Monday. Manaea has looked sharp of late, but note that he’s consistently been at his most inconsistent when on the road, going just 2-3 with a pedestrian 4.44 ERA.

The home side counters with Matt Andriese (5-1, 3.45) who returns from the DL after a mild groin strain. Andriese has pitched 11 games and to go along with his respectable 3.45 ERA, he also owns a 1.28 WHIP to go along with 54 K’s and 21 walks. 

I’ll also point out that Oakland is just 4-13 (-9.2 units) this season on the road when there money line is between +125 to -125, while Tampa Bay is 11-9 (+1.4 units) this year at home when the money line is between +125 to -125. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rays.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Minnesota Twins (4:05 EST).

I’m not one to “flip flop” on a team from game-to-game, but MLB is a different “beast” because for the most part, everything comes down to the starting pitching, so each contest must be evaluated seperately.

And in this case, I definitely think that Jose Berrios has a big advantage over his volatile counterpart today.

Berrios (4-1, 2.76 ERA) bounced back from his worst start ever as a pro against the red hot Astros to pitch a gem in a 3-2 win against the hard-hitting Angels on Sunday, going six frames and allowing two runs and six hits while striking out four and walking two. 

So far Berrios has allowed ten runs over 32.2 innings of work with a 2.76 ERA. Note that he’s 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA on the road this year.

The home side counters with Jeff Samardzija (2-7, 4.29) who gave up two runs off six hits and no walks over 7.2 innings in a win over the Brewers on Monday, also striking out ten. It was Samardzija’s best start of the year and like his counterpart today, he was coming off a complete disaster of an outing previous to his latest gem.

“The Shark” has been better of late, but note that he’s just 1-3 with a pedestrian 4.31 ERA at home this season.

I’ll also point out that Minnesota has done extremely well in this spot for bettors this year by going 23-20 (+3.4 units) against right-handed starters, while San Francisco is just 16-24 (-9.9 units) this season in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Twins.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST).

I like San Francisco to build off its 9-5 win over the Brewers yesterday and I expect Minnesota to stumble in the opener of this three-game interleague series after scoring the 2-1 victory in Seattle late last night.

The visitors hand the ball to Ervin Santana (7-3, 2.44 ERA) who gave up seven earned runs, including three homers over just four innings in a loss to the Angels on Saturday. Santana struggled with control and only struck out two. Santana’s earlier remarkable numbers were clearly unsustainable and I think he’s in line for another rough outing here.

The home side counters with Matt Moore (2-6, 5.22) who also comes in off an outing to forget, giving up five runs over four innings in a loss to Philadelphia on Sunday. 

Moore though has been one of the league’s biggest “Jekyll and Hyde” hurlers in the game this year, posting a 7.94 ERA and 1.91 WHIP on the road, compared to a 2.57 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 7.7 K/9 at home. 

I like Moore to continue his consistent play in front of the home town crowd and I look for Santana to continue to slide as the first half ot the season comes to a close. Play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:15 EST).

Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but I think that Michael Wacha and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Jeremey Hellickson (5-3, 4.50 ERA) who allowed five runs over 5.1 innings against San Francisco on Sunday. Over his last seven starts Hellickson has gone 1-3 with 6.75 ERA and a 17:16 K/W ratio spanning 36 frames of work.

Note that Hellickson is 2-3 with a ballooned 6.43 ERA in all “night” games thus far.

Wacha (2-3, 4.67) gave up six runs off six hits and four walks while striking out five over 4.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision against Chicago on Sunday. Wacha started the year on point, posting a 2.74 ERA over six quality outings, but has since struggled in three straight trips to the mound by going 0-2 with an 11.91 ERA. 

Wacha’s earlier numbers were clearly unsustainable. But I think it’s safe to say that he also isn’t as bad as what his recent little slide would suggest either. 

The moral of the story here is not to overreact. I also point out that Wacha has consistently been at his best in front of the home town crowd this year by going 2-1 with a very respetable 2.94 ERA.

I look for Wacha to outduel his volatile counterpart and for the Cardinals to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Rays (7:10 EST).

I like the Rays to build off yesterday’s 7-5 win over the White Sox, while I expect Oakland to stumble in the opener of this three-game set after getting the day off.

The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Triggs (5-5, 3.36 ERA), who gave up six runs off nine hits and a walk over 3.2 innings in a 13-3 loss to Washington on Friday. Triggs has now given up at least one home run in each of his last four starts, including two on Friday. 

The home side counters with Alex Cobb (4-5, 4.52) who comes in off his worst start of the year, giving up nine earned runs off 14 hits and two walks over five innings in a 9-2 loss to Seattle on Saturday. Cobb is just 1-3 at home, but he does own a very respectable 3.67 ERA in Tampa so far this season.

I’ll point out though that Oakland has struggled in this spot all year for bettors, going just 18-25 (-6 units) against right-handed starters, while Tampa has excellled in this position, going 23-18 (+5.1 units) against right-handed pitchers.

I think Cobb will outduel his volatile counterpart and get back on track after the disastrous outing last time out. Lay the price, play on the Rays.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

Edinson Volquez threw a no-hitter in his last game, but he’s still just 2-7 with a pedestrian 3.79 ERA and 1.58 WHIP.

Volquez had been a disasater previous to the historic feat and suffice it to say, I’m not reading too much into his one decent outing. In fact, I think there is now only one way Volquez can go (and that’s not up!). Note that he’s been at his worst on the road this season as well by going 0-5 with a 5.12 ERA.

The home side counters with ace Gerrit Cole (3-5, 4.27) who will be eager to get back on track after scuffling over his last three starts. He comes in off an outing to forget as well after getting rocked for seven runs over five innings on Friday. 

Cole has been plagued by the home run, but note that he’s been at this best in front of the home town crowd this year, going 1-1 with a very respectable 2.53 ERA.

I’ll also point out that the Marlins are just 2-6 (-2.9 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Pittsburgh is 7-2 (+4.1 units) as a home fav of -125 to -175 this season.

I like Cole to get back on track with a focused effort and am expecting a predictable letdown from Volquez after his gem last time out. This line is could/should easily be a lot higher, play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST).

I had a play on the Mets last night and I am not one to usually “flip flop” on a team from game to game, but MLB is the one sport where the focal point is on the starting pitcher and where each contest has to be looked at individually.

And in this case, I feel that Yu Darvish is well worth the price of admission.

The visitors hand the ball to Zach Wheler (3-3, 3.72 ERA) who despite allowing ten hits and a walk over six innings to go along with two runs and a walk, managed to find a way to victory over the Brewers on Thursday. 

The home side counters with ace Darvish (5-4, 3.13) who for the most part has been very solid this year, especially at home with a 3-2, 3.25 record/ERA.

I’ll point out though that New York is just 10-12 (-2.1 units) on the road this year, while Texas is 17-13 (+2.7 units) at home. 

I like Darvish to easily outduel his counterpart. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST).

I think this is a much bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Jerad Eickhoff (0-6, 5.13 ERA) who was shelled for five runs (four earned) off six hits and five walks over just 2.2 innings in a loss to San Francisco on Friday. 

Note that Eickhoff has been consistently at his worst on the road this year, 0-4 with a 4.80 ERA.

The home side counters with Mike Foltynewicz (3-5, 3.90) who went seven scoreless against the Reds on Friday, scattering two hits and striking out ten in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. 

Foltynewicz has gotten better as the season has progressed, posting a 3.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 24:6 K/W ratio in 28 innings over his last five starts. 

And that’s bad news for the Phillies, who rank 24th in the league in wOVA against right-handed pitchers (.305).

I’ll also point out that Philadelphia is just 3-8 (-4.9 units) on the road this year when the money line is set between +125 and -125, while ATL is 3-1 (+1.7 units) this season as a home fav in the -127 to -175 range.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New York Mets (8:05 EST).

I think this is a much bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to ace Jacob DeGrom (4-2, 3.97 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against Milwaukee on Wednesday, giving up seven runs off eight hits over four innings, also going on to strike out six and walk five. 

DeGrom’s peripherals suggest he’s been the victim of some bad luck of late, as he holds career highs in BABIP (.338) and HR/FB (18.2 percent). Note that DeGrom is 3-0 with a respectable 3.89 ERA on the road this year as well.

The home side counters with the volatile Dillon Gee (0-0, 0.00) who will make his first start ever for the Rangers. Gee has been used out of the Bullpen for Texas, most recently going four innings on Friday.

I’ll point out that New York is already 4-2 (+1.6 units) this year after allowing ten runs or more, while Texas is just 18-25 (-8 units) in all “night” games.

I think DeGrom gets back on track and continues his success on the road. Play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST).

I think this is a matchup which favors the home side.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Jesse Chavez (4-6, 4.68 ERA) who comes in off a good start against the anemic Braves on Wednesday, holding them to one run over seven innings, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his effort. 

Chavez has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned and note that he’s consistently been at his most inconsistent on the road, just 1-4 with a poor 5.46 ERA to this point.

The home side counters with Daniel Norris (2-3, 4.47) who earned a no-decision agains the Royals on Monday after going five innings and givein up three earned runs off six hits while also striking out four. 

Norris has been getting incrementally better with each start this season as he’s now gone at least five innings in four straight outings. He’s also given up three earned runs or less in three of his last four trips to the hill. 

I’ll point out as well that LA is just 1-8 (-7.8 units) already this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Detroit is 3-1 (+2 units) in its last four as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Tigers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST).

Ivan Nova has looked better than Kevin Gausman this season, but the Pirates have given their “ace” little support this year. Gausman has also looked a lot better of late though.

Nova (5-4, 2.92 ERA) most recently gave up three runs off six hits and one walk while striking out three in a loss to the Diamondbacks on Tuesday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Nova really, as for the most part he’s been one of the best in the league to this point. 

Gausman (3-4, 5.92) gave up three runs off eight hits over 5.2 innings while striking out four in a win over the Yankees on Wednesday. Gausman is now 2-1 with a 4.54 ERA at home this year. 

I’ll point out though that the Pirates are just 2-4 (-2 units) in all interleague games this season, while the Orioles are 4-2 (+1.8 units) in the same position.

I think Gausman can match Nova and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the hard-hitting home side. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (10:05 EST).

Toronto heads out West after beating the Yanks 3-2 at home early yesterday afternoon, while the A’s looked primed for a letdown here in my opinion after last night’s deflating 11-10 loss at home to the Nationals.

The visitors hand the ball to JA Happ (0-3, 4.50 ERA) who went four innings and gave up two runs off three hits and three walks with three K’s in a 6-4 win over the Reds on Tuesday. It was Happs first start since April 16th and after allowing two early solo home runs, he’d settle down and allow just a single hit over his final four innings of work. He was 20-4 last season and is expected to be given a longer leash this evening after a pitch count in his first start.

The home side counters with Sean Manaea (4-3, 3.91) who gave up one run off three hits and a walk over seven innings in a victory over the Tribe on Wednesday. Manaea struggled to open the year, but enters this game on an extended stretch of excellence. However I’ll point out that the A’s are just 1-4 (-3 units) in their last five after scoring ten or more runs in their previous game.

Also note that Toronto is 2-1 (+1 unit) in its last three after holding its opponent to two runs or less in its previous outing.

I think Happ can match his counterpart inning for inning and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the dog. Play on the Jays.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST).

I think Ian Kennedy and the Kansas City Royals can finally cool off the red hot Astros in what I believe is a bigger mismatch on the mound that what Las Vegas is leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Fiers (2-2, 4.96 ERA), who gave up two runs off five hits over six innings in a 7-2 win over the Twins on Tuesday. Fiers returned to the rotation to throw a gem, but previous to that he’d pretty much been a disaster this season.

The moral of the story is, let’s not overreact to one decent outing (and note that Fiers owns a poor 5.70 ERA on the road this year as well).

Kennedy (0-5, 5.12) is clearly eager to get off the schneid and notch his first victory of the year, most recently giving up five runs off four hits while striking out four over just three innings in a loss to Detroit on Wednesday. Kennedy posted a 2.30 ERA in April and an 11.30 ERA in May. His home ERA is a pedestrian 4.39.

Neither starter instills too much confidence, but I believe Kennedy has the advantage at home today. The value is simply too good to turn down, play on the Royals.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (8:05 EST).

Miami comes in off a 6-5 win over the Diamondbacks, while Chicago held on for a 7-6 win over the Cardinals last night. Now the Fish have to travel to the Windy City and suffice it to say, I think this sets up as a letdown spot.

The visitors hand the ball to Dan Straily (4-3, 3.56 ERA) who gave up two runs off nine hits and a walk while striking out ten over 6.2 innings in a 10-2 victory over Philadelphia on Wednesday. Straily has been on a tear, but he’s been one of the biggest “Jekyll and Hyde” hurlers in the game this season, going 3-1 with a 2.27 ERA in frot of the home town crowd, compared to just 1-2 with a ballooned 6.00 ERA on the road. 

The home side counters with Eddie Butler (2-1, 4.42) who comes in off his worst start of the year, giving up six runs off seven hits while striking out five over 4.1 innings in an eventual 6-2 loss to the Padres on Tuesday. 

Butler has admittedly been “hit or miss” this season, but he’s consistently been at his best at home with a respectable 3.38 ERA.

I find it interesting to note that Miami is just 15-28 (-14.7 units) in its last 43 games that fall on a “Monday,” while Chicago is 30-14 (+10.4 units) in its last 44 in the same position. 

Butler is playing for his spot in the rotation and I think he can match his volatile counterpart inning for inning. Chicago will look to take advantage of Straily’s road struggles and I look for it to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Lay the price, play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Cleveland Indians (2:15 EST).

The Royals pounded the Tribe 12-5 yesterday. Suffice it to say, I think it’s payback time on Sunday afternoon for Cleveland.

The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Bauer (5-4, 6.00 ERA) who gave up three runs off seven hits and one walk while also striking out 14 in a win over Oakland on Tuesday. After a horrible start to the 2017 campaign, Bauer has looked a lot better of late, not allowing more than three runs in any of his last four outings while also posting a 36:4 K/W ratio. 

The home side counters with Eric Skoglund (1-0, 0.00) who looked great in his debut against Detroit on Tuesday, scattering just two hits and a walk while striknig out five over 6.1 innings. So is Skoglund going to be the next Clayton Kershaw? Maybe.

But note that he’d posted a poor 4.53 ERA over eight starts for Triple-A Omaha before Tuesday’s call-up. 

I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is 13-6 (+2.4 units) in all “day” games this year, while KC is just 5-12 (-7.1 units) in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Indians.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Boston Red Sox (1:35 EST).

I think this is a much bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe as I look for Boston to build off its 5-2 win yesterday with its ace on the mound.

The visitors turn to Chris Sale (6-2, 2.77 ERA) who comes in off his worst start of the year, giving up six runs off ten hits and two walks while striking out nine in what turned out to be a 13-7 win over the White Sox. Sale struggled against his former team, but his offense was on fire, smoking six dingres for the night.

Note that Sale is 2-1 with a 3.48 ERA on the road thus far this season.

The home side counters with Chris Tillman (1-2, 5.87) who has been a disaster of late, posting a ballooned 7.50 ERA, 2.06 WHIP and .358 BAA over his last four trips to the mound. 

Note that Tillman has looked terrible in front of the home town crowd this year, just 1-2 with a 5.79 ERA to this point.

I’ll point out that Boston is 13-8 (+2.6 units) in all “day” games this year, while Baltimore is just 6-9 (-4 units) in the same position.

I don’t usually play favorites of this size, but all signs point to a relatively easy blowout. Lay the price, play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Rays (10:10 EST).

I had a play on the Rays last night and they’d unfortunately fall 12-4 in Seattle. I think the visitors bounce back in Game 2 in what sets up to be a very favorable pitching matchup for them.

Tampa Bay hands the ball to Alex Cobb (4-4, 3.67 ERA) who gave up one run off six hits while walking three and striking out six over five innings in a no-decision against the Twins Sunday. Cobb has been serviceable this year, but note that he’s consistently been at his best on the road, going 3-1 with a 3.67 ERA. 

The home side counters with Sam Gaviglio (1-1, 3.50) who gave up five earned runs off six hits and two walks over five innings in what would turn out to be a 6-5 win over the Rockies on Monday. This could be Gaviglio’s last time in the rotation, with several key members set to return.

I’ll point out that the Rays are 22-16 (+6.4 units) against right-handed starters this season, while the Mariners are just 18-22 (-3.1 units) in the same position.

I think Cobb is the correct call here, play on the Rays.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:15 EST).

I like Baltimore to build off yesterday’s 3-2 victory and take advantage of Boston starter David Price, who is making just his second start of the season.

Price (0-0, 5.40 ERA) is expected to be on a pitch count again today. In his first start against the White Sox he threw 88 pitches. Price should be rolling before too long, but clearly this is a tough second opponent.

The home side counters with Dylan Bundy (6-3, 2.89 ERA) who opened the year on fire in April, but who took a small step back in May, going 3-2 with a 3.92 ERA and 26:14 K/W ratio spanning six starts. Despite that, Bundy’s 1.14 WHIP through 11 games is more than what the Orioles would have hoped for and note that he’s been particularly effective at home, going 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA. 

I’ll point out as well that Boston is just 5-11 (-7 units) this year when on the road when the money line is between +125 to -125, while Baltimore is 12-4 (+7.7 units) this season at home when the money line is set between the same range.

I like Bundy to outduel his counterpart, who I expect will need a few more games under his belt before he returns to top form. Play on the Orioles.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST).

The Astros are on an impressive run right now, but I think that Houston finally has a letdown here.

The visitors hand the ball to ace Dallas Keuchel (8-0, 1.81 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits and two walks while striking out eight over six innings in a 5-2 win over the Orioles on Saturday. 

It’s impossible to say anything negative about Keuchel, so I won’t bother. As I stated off the top, I simply feel this is a bad spot for Houston.

The home side counters with ace Yu Darvish (5-3, 2.97) who gave up three runs off five hits and three walks while striking out four over six innings in a setback to the Blue Jays on Saturday. Darvish made one mistake and Toronto slugger Jose Bautista made him pay with a three-run shot. 

Note that Darvish has been particularly effective at home this year by going 3-1 with a 2.97 ERA. 

Houston is hot, but Texas is 17-10 (+5.7 units) at home. I like Darvish to match Keuchel inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I feel that the value swings to the underdog. Play on Texas.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8:10 EST).

Clayton Kershaw is arguably the best pitcher on the planet right now, but Jimmy Nelson comes in on top form as well. I think Nelson can match Kershaw inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to hard-hitting home side.

Kershaw (7-2, 2.37 ERA) was rocked for four runs off 11 hits (including three dingers) over just 4.1 innings of work, fortunate to receive a no-decision for his sub-par effort most recently.

Kershaw was also shelled for three dingers in a single game earlier in the season as well. 

Nelson (3-3, 3.83) gave up one run off seven hits to go along with a season-high 10 K’s over seven innings in a 9-5 win over Arizona on Sunday. He would not walk a single batter in the dominant effort. 

Note that LA is just 12-13 (-4.8 units) on the road this year, while Milwaukee is 10-7 (+4.4 units) against teams with winning records.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST).

I think the home side offers fantastic value in this matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Gerrit Cole (2-5, 3.65 ERA) who was shelled for four runs off ten hits and a walk while striking out three over five innings in a win over these very Mets on Saturday, fortunate to receive a no-decision for his sub-par effort. Note that Cole is just 1-4 with a pedestrian 4.67 ERA on the road and has now given up nine runs over his last 9.2 innings while striking out just five batters. 

The home side counters with Matt Harvey (4-3, 4.95) who gave up one run off six hits and two walks while striking out four over six innings in a win over Pittsburgh on Sunday. 

Harvey would go on to throw 67 of his 102 pitches for strikes.

It was easily his best outing of the year and I think he can build off it again in this favorable matchup against the soft-hitting Pirates.

I’ll also point out that PIttsburgh is just 13-16 (-2.9 units) this season after a loss, while New York is 2-1 (+1 unit) in its last three following a victory.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (7:10 EST).

I think this is a much bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Zack Greinke (6-3, 3.24 ERA), who comes in off an outing to forget in which he allowed five runs off five hits and two walks with six K’s in a 6-1 loss in Milwaukee on Saturday. 

Greinke though had been red hot previous to that, winning four in a row and five of his last six. Greinke has struggled a bit on the road this year, but note that he’s 6-2 with a 2.76 ERA in all “night” games.

The home side counters with Jeff Locke (0-0, 0.00) who will make his season debut tonight. He was injured in the spring and has worked himself through his re-hab session admirably, posting a 1.77 ERA and 22:2 K/W ratio over seven starts between High-A Jupiter and Double-A Jacksonville. 

I’ll point out though that Arizona is 20-12 (+7.7 units) this season following a victory, while Miami is just 8-12 (-4.4 units) in the same position. 

As good as Locke looked in Double A, I still think that Greinke is being severely undervalued in this matchup. Play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

The Yankees head North of the border on Thurdsay night after falling 10-4 in Baltimore on Wednesday, while Toronto beat Cincinnati 5-4 at home last night. 

The visitors hand the ball to CC Sabathia (5-2, 4.42 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits and three walks while striking out nine over 6.1 innings in a win over the A’s on Saturday. Sabathia has looked brilliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others. Note that he’s 2-2 with a ballooned 6.12 ERA in all “night” games this season.

The home side counters with Marco Estrada (4-2, 3.15) who enters June off a fantastic May, finishing 4-1 with a 3.82 ERA and massive 42:8 K/W ratio over six starts. Estrada comes into the new month sporting a career-best 3.42 FIP through his first 11 games.

Note that Estrada has been especially sharp at home this year by going 2-1 with a 2.32 ERA.

I’ll also point out that New York is just 9-11 (-2.1 units) this season on the road when the money line is set between +150 and -150, while Toronto is now 4-3 (+1 units) after three or more consecutive victories.

The Jays are now one of the hottest teams in the league after a dismal start because they’re getting healthier, with sluggers Troy Tulowitzki and Josh Donaldson both returning to the line-up recently. 

Sabahthia has been pretty good this year, but Estrada comes in on top form. As does Toronto. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Seattle Mariners (10:10 EST).

This series shifts from Colorado to Seattle and suffice it say, I think the Mariners will capatalize and build off yesterday’s 10-4 victory. 

The visitors hand the ball to Antonio Senzatela (7-1, 3.19 ERA) who comes in off a gem against the Cards on Friday, going eight scoreless and striking out three in the 10-0 victory. 

Colorado would go on to turn four double plays behind Senzatela. A closer look at his peripherals though (4.54 FIP and 4.55 xFIP) suggest rockier times are ahead.

The home side countes with flame-thrower James Paxton (3-0, 1.43) who prior to landing on the DL had posted a 1.43 ERA, 0.98 WHIP to go along with 45 K’s over 37.2 innings of work (that includes going 2-0 with a 0.44 ERA at home).

I’ll point out that Colorado is just 2-3 (-1.5 units) in all interleague contests this year, while Seattle is 7-3 (+4.8 units) in the same position.

I think Senzatela’s poor peripherals finally catch up to him here and I look look for Paxton to dominate in his first start back from re-hab. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the New York Yankees (7:05 EST).

Neither of these pitchers has gotten out to the start to the 2017 campaign that they’d hoped for, but I think that New York and Mashario Tanaka will build off yesterday’s 8-3 victory. 

Tanaka (5-4, 5.86) gave up one run off five hits while stirking out 13 over 7.1 innings in an unfortunate loss to the A’s on Friday. As mentioned, Tanaka has struggled this year, but there’s no question that he looked a lot better against Oakland and note that he’s still 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA in all “night” games this season.

The home side counters with the volatile Kevin Gausman (2-4, 6.17), who also comes in off a decent outing, giving up two runs off eight hits while striking out two over 6.2 innings in a 2-0 loss to Houston on Friday. 

It could have been a lot worse for Gausman, as both runs came off solo dingers. Gausman struggled in April and has looked much better of late, but I’ll point out that unlike his counterpart, Gausman continues to struggle in all “night” games this year, just 2-3 with a 5.35 ERA.

I’ll point out as well that New York is 18-10 (+6.6 units) this season following a victory, while Baltimore is 10-13 (-4 units) following a loss. 

All things considerd, I do indeed feel this is a very fair price, play on the Yankees.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Cleveland Indians (6:10 EST).

I like Cleveland to build off yesterday’s 9-4 victory.

The visitors hand the ball to Sean Manaea (3-3, 4.35 ERA) who comes in off his best start of the year, giving up no runs off four hits and one walk while striking out eight over seven innings to earn the victory over the Yanks on Friday. 

I’m not going to read too much into this one start though as this was just Manaea’s second quality start over his last seven outings. And note that he’s been particularly feeble on the road this year by going just 1-3 with a 5.59 ERA.

The home side counters with Mike Clevinger (2-1, 2.82), who after holding the hot-hitting Astros scoreless over seven innings, was unable to keep the momentum rolling in a 6-4 loss to KC on Friday, allowing four runs while striking out six over six innings of work. 

I’ll point out though that Cleveland is now 3-1 (+2 units) in its last four following a victory, while Oakland is only 1-4 (-3 units) in its last five following a loss. 

I like Clevinger to get back on track here and look for him to easily outduel his volatile counterpart. Play on the Indians.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Miami Marlins (1:10 EST).

The bottom line is I think this is a much bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to confirmed “gas can” Aaron Nola (2-2, 4.34 ERA) who was shelled for five runs off six hits and two walks while striking out five over six innings in a loss against the Reds on Friday. 

Nola has now failed to post a quality start in two of his last three outings.

The home side counters with Dan Straily (3-3, 3.83 ERA) who gave up three earned runs off six hits and two walks over 5.1 innings in a victory over the Angels on Friday, also going on to strike out six. 

Straily has been hitting his stride of late, posting a very respectable 2.74 ERA and a tiny 0.91 WHIP. 

Note that Straily has been particularly sharp at home this season as well, going 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA.

I feel Straily isn’t getting nearly enough respect from the oddsmakers in this matchup. Lay the very reasonable price, play on the Marlins.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (10:10 EST).

I think the defending champs will bounce back here after falling 5-2 yesterday.

The Cubs hand the ball to Eddie Butler (2-0, 1.93 ERA) who gave up a single run off four hits and two walks while striking out one over five innings in a victory over the Giants on Thursday. 

Butler has now won two of his three starts and owns a 1.93 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. 

The home side counters with Dinelson Lamet (1-0, 1.80) who held the Mets to one run off three hits over five innings on Thursday. Prior to that call-up start, Lamet looked pretty good in the minors with a 3.23 ERA and 11.45 K/9 ratio.

I’ll point out though that San Diego has struggled mightily in this spot for bettors already this year going just 1-3 (-2 units) in its last four following a victory, while Chicago is 2-1 (+1 unit) in its last three following a loss.

Play the Cubs.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

Robbie Ray has been pretty good this year, but I think Ivan Nova isn’t getting nearly enough respect from the oddsmakers considering how well he’s done this season. I look for Pittsburgh to build off yesterday’s 4-3 victory. 

Ray (4-3, 3.45 ERA) went seven shutout innings with nine K’s in a 4-0 win over the Brewers on Thursday. Ray has turned in back-to-back gems, but previous to that had posted a 6.33 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over a five-start stretch.

Nova (5-3, 2.83) gave up four runs off ten hits and a walk while striking out one over nine innings in a win over the Braves on Thursday. 

These are two hurlers coming in on top form, but note that Arizona is just 6-10 (-4.6 units) this year on the road when the money line is set between +125 and -125, while Pittsburgh is 3-1 (+2.1 units) at home when the money line is in the same range.

I like Nova to outduel Ray and in my opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Washington Nationals (4:05 EST).

Washington fell at home to the Padres yesterday afternoon, while the Giants smashed the Braves 7-1. I think the Nationals get back on track this evening though as I look for Tanner Roark to get the better of his volatile counterpart.

Roark (4-2, 4.32 ERA) comes in off a gem against the Mariners on Wednesday, allowing one run off eight hits while striking out eight over seven innings in the eventual 5-1 victory. 

The home side counters with Matt Moore (2-5, 5.28) who gave up four runs off seven hits over six innings while walking three in an eventual 5-4 loss to the Cubs on Wednesday. 

I’ll point out that Washington is already 4-2 (+1.6 units) this year against left-handed starters, while San Francisco is 12-18 (-7.4 units) against right-handed starters. 

This matchup favors Roark and the hard-hitting Nationals.

Good luck…Larry

This is an 8* Wipeout Winner on the Cleveland Indians (1:10 EST).

Although Josh Tomlin has seen better days, I like the Tribe to bounce back here after yestreday’s 5-2 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Danny Duffy (4-2, 2.92 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits over seven innings in a 6-2 win over the Yanks on Tuesday. 

Duffy has looked better of late, but note that this is a spot in which the Royals have really struggled in this year, going just 4-11 (-7.6 units) in all “day” games.

Tomlin (2-6, 6.70) gave up five runs off nine htis while striking out four over 6.1 innings in a loss to the Reds on Monday. 

Tomlin has been “hit-or-miss” this season (mostly “miss”), but note that if the Indians have done well in one area so far in 2017, it’s been in all “day” games where they’re 10-5 (+1.1 units) thus far.

I like Tomlin to fight and match his hot counterpart and for the hungry home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Texas Rangers (1:05 EST).

I think the Rangers offer pretty good value here to bounce back after yesterday’s 3-1 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Cashner (1-4, 3.18 ERA) who gave up five runs off six hits and four walks over five innings in a loss to Boston on Tuesday. I don’t think it’s time to hit the panic button yet though if your a Cashner fan, as it was the first time he’s allowed more than two earned runs since his first start of the year. 

Prior to this rough outing Cashner had put together four consecutive quality starts.

The home side counters with Joe Biagini (1-2, 3.75) who gave up three runs off five hits and three walks while striking out three over 4.1 innings in a no-decision against the Brewers on Tuesday. Biagini has struggled of late, allowing nine runs over his last 8.1 innings spanning two starts. 

I’ll point out that Texas is 7-4 (+3.4 units) in all “day” games this year, while Toronto is just 1-3 (-2 units) in its last four in the same position.

After losing three straight in Boston and the first two games of this series, enough is enough as far as the Rangers are concerned this afternoon. Play on Texas.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (9:10 EST).

I think the Rockies will build off yesterday’s 10-0 beatdown of the Cards yesterday.

The visitors hand the ball to Adam Wainwright (4-3, 4.81 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing against the Giants on Sunday, allowing one earned run off five hits and three walks over 6.1 innings. Wainwright has looked a bit better of late, but note that he’s now given up at least three walks in all four of his May starts to this point. 

And if Wainwright has had one glaring weakness this season, it’s clearly been his play on the road where he’s an atrocious 1-2 with a 7.11 ERA.

The home side counters with Kyle Freeland (5-2, 3.31) who gave up four runs off five hits and two walks while striking out three over six innings in a win over the Reds on Sunday. Freeland has now given up three earned runs or fewer in eight of his nine starts this year. 

Freeland’s periperhals suggest that rockier times could be ahead, but regardless the rookie has looked sharp to this point, especially at home where he’s 2-2 with a 3.80 ERA (and that’s saying something when Coors Field is involved).

I’ll also point out that St. Louis is just 4-6 (-2.8 units) against southpaw’s this year, while the Rockies are 22-13 (+8.8 units) against right-handed starters. 

All things considered, I think we’re getting a great price here, play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the LA Dodgers (7:15 EST).

I had a play on LA last night and it would go on to beat the Cubs 4-0. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a repeat performance on Saturday night as well. 

The visitors hand the ball to John Lackey (4-4, 4.82) who was shelled for five runs off seven hits over five innings in a loss to San Francisco on Monday. It was the second straight start that the veteran has failed to get into the sixth frame (note the he’d also go on to give up two home runs for the second game in a row as well, while he’d also hit two batters). 

The home side counters with Brandon McCarthy (4-1, 3.76) who gave up one run off three hits while walking one and striking out five over six innings ina  6-3 victory over Miami on Sunday. 

McCarthy has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned of late, but note that he’s been strong in front of the home town crowd to this point, going 2-0 with a highly respectable 3.68 ERA at Chavez Ravine.

I’ll point out that Chicago is just 2-6 (-4.3 units) on the road this year when the money line is between +125 to -125, while LA is 19-8 (+4.8 units) at home this season.

All things considered, I think we’re getting a great price in this matchup. Play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (4:10 EST).

I like Arizona to build off its 4-2 victory last night.

The visitors hand the ball to Zack Greinke (6-2, 2.82 ERA) who went 8.2 innings in a win over the White Sox on Monday, allowing one run off four hits and one walk while striking out a season-high 12. 

So far through ten starts Greinke is on pace for one of his best campaigns of his career. To go along with his sparkling 2.82 ERA, Greinke also sports a tiny 0.97 WHIP. 

The home side counters with Chase Anderson (2-1, 4.25) who gave up six runs off seven hits (including three dingers) while walking three and striking out just two over four innings in a 13-6 loss to the Cubs on Sunday. 

Anderson has been solid overall this year though, but I’ll point out that the Brewers are just 7-9 (-1.2 units) already in all “day” games, while Arizona is 3-1 (+2.3 units) in its last four in the same position.

Recent performance is often the best indicator we have when properly judging starting pitching and in this case I think Greinke has a major advantage. I’m laying the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (4:05 EST).

After yesterday’s 5-2 defeat, I like the Phillies to bounce back this afternoon.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Bronson Arroyo (3-4, 6.75 ERA) who was shelled for six runs over five innings in a setback to Colorado on Sunday. In the disastrous outing he’d give up nine hits (including four dingers), while walking two and hitting one.

Note that Arroyo has been particularly horrible on the road this year by going 0-2 with an 8.05 ERA.

The home side counters with Jerad Eickhoff (0-5, 4.70) who also comes in off a loss to the Rockies on Monday, allowing four runs off nine hits with no walks across six innings. Eickhoff has looked brilliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others, but note Philadelphia is 2-1 (+1.2 units) in its last three following a loss.

And I’ll also point out that the Reds are just 2-4 (-1.8 units) this season when the money line is between +125 to -125. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Phillies.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* Las Vegas Insider on the LA Dodgers (10:10 EST).

I think this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. If this was three years ago, Jake Arrieta would have been a -200 favorite on the road.

But that was then and this is now. Arrieta (5-3, 4.80 ERA) has been hit-or-miss for a while now, although he does come in off a decent outing against the Brewers on Sunday, giving up one run off five hits over six innings. He had lost two straight previous to that and note that he owns an atrocious 11.25 ERA in the first innings of his starts this season. 

Arrieta’s peripherals suggest rockier times ahead as well and note that he’s been particularly feeble on the road this season with a 3-3, 5.73 record/ERA.

The home side counters with Alex Wood (5-0, 1.88) who has been spectacular over his last three starts, allowing just 13 hits while posting a 25:4 K/W across 18.1 scoreless innings of work. For the year he’s posted a 52:13 K/W over seven starts apanning 43 innings.

Note that Wood has been paricularly dominant at home as well going 4-0 with a 1.59 ERA. 

I think Wood should/could easily be a much bigger fav in this matchup. Play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

This is an 8* Situational Stunner on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST).

I think this interleague matchup favors Dan Straily and the home side.

The visitors hand the ball to Jesse Chavez (4-5, 4.61 ERA) who earned a win over the Mets on Sunday despite giving up five runs over five innings. 

Chavez has been particularly pedestrian on the road this year with a 1-3, 4.44 ERA record.

Straily (2-3, 3.70) looked pretty good in a win over the Dodgers on Sunday, giving up three runs off four hits while striking out eight over six innings. To go along with his decent 3.70 ERA, Straily also owns a tidy 1.03 WHIP and 8.9 K/9 ratio. 

Note that Straily has been particularly effective at home this year with a tiny 1.95 ERA.

For this pick I’m primarily focusing on the starting pitchers and in this case, there’s no question in my mind that Straily has a big upper-hand in this matchup. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Marlins.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST).

I think Aaron Nola and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Tim Adleman (2-2, 6.19 ERA) who was supposed to start yesterday, but who got pushed over to today because of rain. 

In his prevoius outing Adleman was shelled for six runs off seven hits and four walks while striking out four over 4.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Rockies on Saturday. 

Adleman has gotten worse as the season has progressed as he’s now allowed 11 earned runs over his las tthree starts. Note that he’s been partcularly horrible on the road as well, going 0-2 with a ghastly 11.37 ERA.

The Phillies counter with Nola (2-1, 3.52) who returned from the ten day DL to allow one run off four hits over seven innings in a 1-0 loss to Pittsburgh on Sunday, striking out five in the process. Nola only needed 89 pitches to get thorugh the seven frames and his fastball topped out at 95.5 MPH. 

MLB handicapping often comes down to getting a proper read on the starting pitching and in this case I feel Nola should/could in fact be a much larger fav. This is classic mismatch, lay the price with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* AL GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Tampa Bay Rays (7:10 EST).

LA has taken the first two games of this series, but I think the home side will bounce back in the finale.

The vistors hand the ball to Ricky Nolasco (2-3, 4.01 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits and three walks over six innings in a loss to New York on Friday, striking out four. Nolasco has been hit-or-miss all year, so far he’s 1-2 with a 3.72 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Erasmo Ramirez (2-0, 3.00) who gave up two runs off six hits and one walk while stirking out five over 5.1 innings in a no-decision against the Yankees on Friday. 

So far Ramirez has given up just two runs over his 9.1 innings of work spanning two starts this year. Note that he was 3-2 with a 2.66 ERA at home last year. 

I’ll also point out that LA is just 16-18 (-2.5 units) against right-handed starterst this year, while Tampa Bay is 18-14 (+4.6 units) in the same position. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rays.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Baltimore Orioles (12:35 EST).

After falling 2-0 yesterday, I like the home side to bounce back and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. 

The visitors hand the ball to Jose Berrios (2-0, 0.59 ERA) who went seven scoreless against Colorado on Thursday, giving up just two hits and striking out 11. 

The sample size is simply too small to properly judge Berrios yet and I find it impossible for the 2nd year pro to continue this blistering pace. Note the he posted a 6.75 ERA in five starts on the road last year.

The home side counters with Chris Tillman (1-0, 3.52) who gave up three runs off five hits and two walks while striking out four over six innings in a no-decision against Toronto on Friday. 

Tillman has given up three or fewer runs in each of his three starts and note that he’s been particuarly sharp at home, going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA.

I’ll point out as well that the Twins are just 8-13 (-5.4 units) in all “day” games this year, while the Orioles are 2-1 (+1 unit) in their last three in the same position.

I think Tillman is the call here as regression seems imminent for Berrios. Play on Baltimore.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Cleveland Indians (7:10 EST).

I believe this is a much bigger pitching mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Carlos Carrasco (4-2, 2.60 ERA) who left his last start early because of pectoral soreness. Carrasco was given an extra two days off and has been cleared to go tonight. 

Note that Carrasco has been particularly nasty on the road this year, coming in 4-0 with a minuscule 1.35 ERA away from friendly confines thus far.

The home side counters with Amir Garrett (3-3, 5.18) who was shelled for six runs off five hits and four walks over just four innings in a loss to the Cubs on Thursday. 

Garrett has been hit-or-miss in his rookie season and note, this is a spot in which the Reds have done terrible in already this year, going just 14-32 (-11.6 units) in their last 46 home games as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range.

I like Carrasco to easily outduel his volatile counterpart, lay the price with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Kansas City Royals (7:05 EST).

I had a play on the Yanks last night, but I think that the visitors will bounce back with their ace coming to the mound on Tuesday.

The Royals hand the ball to Danny Duffy (3-3, 2.97 ERA) who went seven scoreless in Thursday’s victory over these very Yankees, allowing three hits, two walks and posting 10 K’s. 

After back-to-back crummy starts against the White Sox of all teams, Duffy has bounced back with three straight quality outings to push his ERA back under 3.00. During that stretch he’s posted an 18:5 K/W ratio spanning 20.2 innings. 

The home side counters with rookie Jordan Montgomery (2-3, 4.81) who threw opposite Duffy last week and who got shelled for five runs off four hits and three walks over five innings in the eventual 5-1 setback. 

Note that Montgomery owns a poor 4.98 ERA at home thus far, while Duffy has a very respectable 3.24 ERA on the road.

I like Duffy to easily outduel his volatile counterpart again today and I look for the Royals to take advantage and avenge yesterday’s setback.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:35 EST).

Pittsburgh won 1-0 at home over Philadelphia yesterday, while the Braves fell 3-2 at home to Washington. Ultimately I think tonight’s pitching matchup favors the vistors.

The Pirates hand the ball to Gerrit Cole (2-4, 2.84 ERA) who held Washington to one run over seven frames, scattering three hits and striking out three in the 6-1 victory. In his four losses, the Pirates have managed a combined five runs. 

Cole is throwing at an elite level right now, but simply not getting the support. Yet.

The home side counters with Mike Foltynewicz (2-4, 4.10) who gave up three runs off six hits over six innings in a win over Toronto on Wednesday, going on to strike out just one. 

Foltynewicz has been hit or miss this year, but note that he’s just 1-2 with a 6.35 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far.

Also note that Pittsburgh is 10-9 (+2.9 units) this season following a victory, while ATL is just 7-15 (-6.5 units) following a loss.

I like Cole to outduel his volatile counterpart and I expect the Pirates to finally provide their ace with some support. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Rays (7:10 EST).

The Angels come in off a satisfying 12-5 win over the Mets in New York yesterday afternoon, while the Rays are looking to bounce back after a tough 3-2 setback at home to the Yanks. 

I like Tampa to deliver the goods here and think that Jake Odorizzi is getting disrespected in this matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to JC Ramirez (3-3, 3.97 ERA) who gave up two runs over seven innings while striking out two in a win over the light-hitting White Sox on Tuesday. Previous to that he’d been shelled for five runs in four innings. 

Ramirez has regressed as the season has progressed as evidenced by his poor 3.6 K/9 over his last three starts (note that he owns a pathetic 5.12 ERA on the road as well).

The home side counters with Odorizzi (3-2, 3.16) who gave up four runs off seven hits and one walk over six innings in a victory over Cleveland on Tuesday, also going on to strike out five. To go along with his respectable 3.16 ERA, Odorizzi sports a fantastic 0.89 WHIP through 37 innings of work. 

I’ll point out as well that LA is just 8-15 (-6.7 units) on the road this year, while Tampa is 14-8 (+7.4 units) this season following a loss.

In my opinion Odorizzi should be a much bigger fav in this matchup. Play on Tampa.

Good luck…Larry

The third 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (7:05 EST).

This is a pick that’s definitely on the “upper end” of chalk that I’ll lay, but for a number of different reasons I think that Michael Pineda is worth the price of admission in this matchup.

KC comes in off a satisfying 6-4 win in Minnesota last night and hands the ball to Jason Vargas (5-2, 2.03 ERA) who was just annihilated by these very Yankees in Wednesday’s 11-7 loss, giving up six runs off seven hits and two walks over four innings of work. Vargas’ numbers are impressive, sporting a 43:10 K/W ratio over 48.2 innings of work, but regression seems imminent now in my opinion.

Pineda (4-2, 3.42) threw opposite Vargas in that one and earned the win after giving up four runs (three earned) off six hits while striking out five over six innings. 

Pineda has now posted three straight quality starts and his 55:8 K/W ratio over 47.1 innings of work remains one of the best in the entire league.

I’ll point out that KC is just 13-17 (-3.8 units) against right-handed starters this year, while New York is 7-3 (+4.4 units) in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, lay the price with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SUPER SIDE is on the Boston Red Sox (4:05 EST).

I look for the hard-hitting Red Sox to bounce back after yesterday’s 8-3 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez (2-1, 3.05 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits and two walks while stirking out five over six innings in a 6-3 victory over St. Louis on Tuesday. It marked his fifth straight quality outing, a stretch in which the southpaw has posted a 2.40 ERA, struck out 32 and given up just a single home run spanning 30 innings of work.

The A’s rank 26th in the league in runs scored, so yesterday’s outburst was definitely out of the norm. 

The home side counters with Andrew Triggs (5-2, 2.12) who gave up one run over six innings in a no-decision against the Mariners on Tuesday. 

Triggs has been a big surprise in his second year in the league, as he ranks among the best in the AL in several categories. 

I’ll point out though that the A’s are just 9-10 (-1.7 units) this season following a victory, while the Red Sox are 13-7 (+3.8 units) following a loss.

For arguments sake, lets call these starters a “wash.” I think the situation and the numbers swing the scales in favor of the visitors though. Play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (10:10 EST).

I think lefty Robbie Ray and the hard-hitting Diamondbacks offer pretty good value in this spot.

Ray (2-3, 4.57 ERA) comes in off an outing to forget, allowing four runs off six hits and three walks over four innings in a no-decision against Pittsburgh on Sunday. Ray started off with a 3.47 ERA over his first six starts, but back-to-back duds has raised it more than a full point. 

Still, note that he’s 1-1 with a 1.45 ERA on the road this year.

The home side counters with Luis Perdomo (0-0, 4.19) who gave up three runs off five hits while striking out nine in a no-decision against the Brewers on Monday. Perdomo has now posted six straight no-decisions to open the 2017 campaign. Perdomo has been serviceable this year, note that he owns a pedestrian 4.84 ERA in front of the home town crowd though.

I’ll point out as well that Arizona is 18-11 (+7.2 units) against right-handed starters this season and 14-10 (+4.2 units) following a victory, while San Diego is just 5-8 (-1.8) against southpaws this year and only 10-18 (-6 units) following a loss.

For all the reasons listed above, play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:35 EST).

I like the Orioles to build off last night’s 5-3 victory.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Bolsinger (0-2, 6.10 ERA) who gave up six runs off eight hits over four innings in a loss to the Braves on Monday. After a decent debut, Bolsinger made a predictable immediate step back into mediocrity. He was 1-4 with a 6.83 ERA last year, including 0-3 with a 5.14 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with the equally as struggling Kevin Gausman (2-3, 7.19) who was rocked for five runs off nine hits while striking out three in a fortunate no-decision against the Royals on Sunday. 

Gausman was just 9-12 last year, but he posted a very respectable 3.61 ERA. Clearly he’s been a disapointment to this point in 2017. 

Note though, while he was just 3-10 with a pedestrian 4.32 ERA on the road last season, he was 6-2 with a 2.67 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

I’ll also point out that despite its recent surge of late, Toronto is still just 8-14 (-4.7 units) on the road this year, only 11-12 (-3.6 units) following a loss and 11-18 (-9 units) in all “night” games, while Baltimore is 14-9 (+4.8 units) following a victory and 14-3 (+10.6) at home.

I give Gausman the slight nod on the bump and I think that’ll be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the hard-hitting home side. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:15 EST).

I like the Cards to bounce back here after yesterday’s 6-5 setback.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Jeff Samardzija (1-5, 5.26 ERA) who comes in off his first win of the year, holding the soft-hitting Reds to three runs off nine hits over six innings in the eventual 8-3 victory. Samrdzija sports a career-worst 10.7 K/9. 

Note that Samardzija is already a horrible 0-3 with 6.66 ERA on the road this season.

The home side counters with Carlos Martinez (3-3, 3.88) who enters off his third straight win, giving up three earned runs off five hits and four walks over 6.2 innings while also striking out seven against the defending champs on Saturday. It was his fourth straight quality start.

Note that Martinez is 2-1 with a respectable 3.06 ERA at home this year. 

I’ll point out that San Francisco is just 8-15 (-9.8 units) against right-handed starters this season, while St. Louis is 18-13 (+2.5 units) in the same position.

In this clear pitching mismatch, I have no issues at all in laying this reasonable mid-sized price on the revenge-minded Cardinals. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Washignton Nationals (7:35 EST).

I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Gio Gonzalez (3-1, 2.47 ERA) who allowed one run off four scattered hits while striking out five over seven innings in an unfortunate loss to the Phillies on Sunday. 

The Braves counter with RA Dickey (3-3, 4.22) who gave up three runs off five hits and three walks while striking out just one over seven innings in a loss to Miami on Sunday. So far Dickey has given up between two and four runs in each of his seven starts this year. 

Both starters’ peripherals suggest regression is imminent, but I’ll point out that the Nationals are 16-8 (+3.8 units) against division opponents already this season and 23-13 (+4.2 units) against right-handed starters, while Atlanta is just 7-12 (-3.1 units) against the division and only 30-55 (-15.1 units) in its last 88 against southpaws.

I like Gonzalez to outduel his counterpart and I think the Nats also have a huge advantage at the plate. With ATL dealing with key injury issues at the moment, lay the price with confidence. Play on Washignton.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST).

Both teams had a day off yesterday. For a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors Jacob DeGrom and the home side.

The visitors send the volatile Ricky Nolasco (2-2, 4.34 ERA) to the hill, he’s coming off a no-decision against Detroit on Saturday, giving up three earned runs off five hits and four walks over six innings. The 34-year-old has now given up two home runs in each of his last three starts. The four walks represented a season high.

Note that Nolasco was an unimpressive 5-7 with a 4.53 ERA on the road last year.

DeGrom (2-1, 4.07) comes in off an outing to forget, giving up four runs off eight hits with one walk and eight K’s over seven innings in a fortunate no-decision againt Milwaukee on Sunday. DeGrom owns a pedestrian 1.36 WHIP at the moment, but his 67:20 K/W ratio over 48.2 innings of work is impressive. 

Note that DeGrom was 5-3 with a 2.11 ERA at home last year.

I’ll also point out that LA is just 15-16 (-1.5 units) against right-handed starters this year, while New York is 51-32 (+3.2 units) the last two seasons as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST).

I like the home side to bounce back here after last night’s 11-7 defeat to the “Evil Empire.”

The visitors hand the ball to Jordan Montgomery (2-2, 4.19 ERA) who gave up four runs off eight hits and one walk over six innings in a loss to Houston on Friday. Montgomery has just two quality starts out of his last four tries. 

The Royals counter with ace Danny Duffy (2-3, 3.38) who gave up two runs off eight hits and a walk while stirking out six over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Orioles on Friday. 

Duffy has now posted six quality starts in his last eight trips to the hill. Note that Duffy was 7-0 with a 3.57 ERA at home last season.

I’ll also point out that New York is just 1-3 (-2 units) in its last four after scoring ten or more runs, while KC is 2-1 (+1 unit) in its last three after allowing ten or more runs.

I think Duffy will easily outduel his counterpart here, play on Kansas City.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Diego Padres (3:40 EST).

I like the Padres to bounce back here after last night’s 3-1 loss.

The visitors hand the ball to Zach Davies (4-2, 5.80 ERA) who scored a win over the Mets on Saturday despite giving up four runs off seven hits while striking out only two over five innings of work. Davies has looked pretty good of late after a couple of disastrous starts to open the year. Note that he posted a pedestrian 4.39 ERA on the road last season.

The home side counters with Jarred Cosart (0-1, 3.24) who has given up three runs (one earned) over 7.2 innings of work spanning two starts for the Padres this year. 

I’ll point out though that Milwaukee is just 5-7 (-1.6 units) in all “day” games this year, while San Diego is 27-16 (+3.9 units) the last two seasons as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range.

All signs point to a bounce back, play on the Padres.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST).

I like the Rangers to build off yesterday’s 5-1 victory.

The visitors hand the ball to Zach Eflin (0-0, 2.81 ERA) who gave up three runs off nine hits over six innings in a no-decision against the Mariners on Wednesday. 

Eflin was 3-5 with a 5.54 ERA in his rookie year, including just 2-3 with a 6.45 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Andrew Cashner (0-3, 2.43) who went six frames in a victory over Oakland on Friday, giving up one earned run off five hits and a walk, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his effort. 

I’ll point out that Cashner posted a very respectable 3.11 ERA in all home contests last year.

Note that Philadelhia is just 6-14 (-4.6 units) on the road this season, while Texas is 14-8 (+5.1 units) at home.

I’ll give Cashner the slight nod in this matchup and the Rangers a big nod at the plate and with those two factors working in our favor, it makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. Play on Texas.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Cleveland Indians (12:10 EST).

I think the home side will bounce back this afternoon after yesterday’s 6-4 setback.

The visitors hand the ball to Alex Cobb (3-3, 3.65 ERA) who gave up four runs off four hits and three walks over 6.1 innings in a victory over the Red Sox on Friday. 

Cobb has been hit or miss all season so far, note that he posted a horrible 6.89 ERA on the road in his limited time last year.

The Indians counter with Josh Tomlin (2-4, 5.87), who gave up one run off six hits and one walk while striking out seven over eight innings in an unfortunate setback to Minnesota on Friday. 

Tomlin has turned the corner after a disastrous opening to the 2017 campaign, having held the opposition to one earned run in each of his last two outings. 

I’ll also point out that Tampa is just 5-10 (-5 units) this season in all “day” games, while Cleveland is 8-4 (+1.6 units) in the same position. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Indians.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (10:15 EST).

I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and I look for the hard-hitting Dodgers to avenge yesterday’s blowout loss.

The visitors hand the ball to Rich Hill (1-1, 3.38 ERA) who has looked decent in his limited time this year, starting two games and pitching eight innings, allowing three earned runs off seven hits in that span. 

Hill most recently threw five shutout frames in a rehab game at High-A Rancho Cucamonga on Wednesday and note that he was 8-1 with a 1.89 ERA on the road last year. 

The home side counters with Ty Blach (0-2, 4.88) who has been hit or miss all season, most recently coming off a decent outing against the Reds on Thursday, holding them to two runs off five hits over seven innings, walking one and striking out two in the 3-2 loss. Note that he owns a poor 2.3 K/9 strikeout rate so far this season.

Blach has had some success against the Dodgers already this year, but note that LA is already 11-5 (+3 units) this season following a loss, while the Giants are only 4-11 (-8.6 units) following a victory.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (8:15 EST).

I like the hard-hitting Red Sox to take Game 1 of this interleague series.

The visitors hand the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez (1-1, 2.80 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits while striking out five in a win over Milwaukee on Thursday. To go along with his 2.80 ERA, Rodriguez also sports a very nice 1.13 WHIP and 10.7 K/9 with a 30.3 strikeout percentage. 

The home side counters with Lance Lynn (4-1, 2.75) who surprised everyone with a nearly flawless start to the 2017 campaign, but who now comes into this one off his worst outing of the season, allowing four runs off five hits and four walks while striking out five over four innings in a win over Miami on Wednesday. 

Lynn struggled with his command, throwing just 61 of 104 pitches for strikes. 

I’ll point out that Boston is 12-5 (+5.8 units) this season following a loss and already 6-3 (+2.8 units) in all interleague games, while St. Louis is just 2-7 (-6.8 units) when playing with a day off and only 5-6 (-2.1 units) against teams with winning records. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on Boston

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (8:15 EST).

I like the hard-hitting visiting side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

The Yanks hand the ball to CC Sabathia (2-2, 5.77 ERA) who gave up five runs off seven hits and two walks over six innings in a loss to the Reds on Tuesday. All five runs came in the second frame. Sabathia has so far been hit-or-miss in 2017, note that he was 6-4 with a 3.26 ERA on the road last year.

The home side counters with the volatile Jason Hammel (1-4, 5.97) who was rocked for seven runs off 13 hits and a walk over seven innings in a 12-1 loss to the Rays on Wednesday. 

Like Sabathia, Hammel had a pretty good 2016 (finishing 15-10 with a 3.83 ERA), but just like his veteran counterpart today, he’s also been a train-wreck this year.

I’ll point out though that the Yanks are 16-11 (+2.9 units) against right-handed starters this season, while the Royals are only 4-5 (-1.1 units) against southpaws.

I think we’re getting great value on New York in this one.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* AMERICAN LEAGUE UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH is on the Tampa Bay Rays (6:10 EST).

I think Chris Archer and the Rays have much better than just a “punchers chance” in this one.

Archer (3-1, 3.04 ERA) comes in off his strongest performance of the year, going eight scoreless while striking out 11 in a 12-1 win over the Royals on Wednesday. He’s now posted back-to-back starts with 11 K’s. And note that he’s posted a respectable 3.20 ERA on the road so far this year.

The home side counters with Carlos Carrasco (4-2, 1.86) who also comes in off a strong outing, going seven shutout innings against Toronto on Tuesday, walking none and striking out seven in the process. At first glance Carrasco’s numbers are sparkling, but his .211 BABIP suggest some regression is imminent. Note that he owned a pedestrian 4.29 ERA at home last year. 

I’ll point out as well that Tampa Bay is already 4-2 (+3.8 units) this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Cleveland is only 7-8 (-6.6 units) in front of the home town crowd.

Play on the Rays.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New York Yankees (7:35 EST).

Houston took Game 1 of this series on Friday and yesterday’s game was postponed. This is the second game of a double-header and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Masahiro Tanaka and the home side.

The visitors hand the ball to Charlie Morton (4-2, 3.63 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits and four walks while striking out five over 5.2 innings in a win over the Braves on Tuesday. Morton is starting to show “cracks in the armor,” as he’d go on throw just 48 of his 84 pitches for strikes. 

It’s hard to get a read on Morton at this point, as he’s looked quite good at times and pretty poor in others.

Tanaka (5-1, 4.36) gave up four runs off ten hits while walking one and striking out six over seven innings in a 10-4 win over the Red Sox on Monday. 

It was Tanaka’s fifth straight victory and he’s now given up just one walk combined over his last three outings. 

While his 4.36 ERA is pedestrian, his 2.3 W/9 ratio is spectacular. 

Note that Tanaka was 7-1 with a 3.86 ERA at home last season. 

I think the value in this matchup is on Tanaka and the home side, play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the New York Yankees (1:05 EST).

Houston has taken the first two games of this series, but I like the Yanks to bounce back in the third game.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Fiers (1-1, 5.64 ERA) who gave up three runs on four hits (including two dingers) and four walks while striking out one in a fortunate 5-3 win over the Angels on Sunday. 

So far Fiers has given up a major-league leading 14 home runs over 30.1 innings of work. Note that he wasn’t particularly effective on the road last year, posting a poor 4.99 ERA.

The home side counters with Luis Severino (2-2, 3.40) who gave up one run off four hits while walking one and striking out nine over seven innings in an unforuntate no-decision against the Cubs on Sunday. 

Severino now owns an impressive 45:7 K/W ratio in 39.2 innings spanning six starts this year. 

I think the day off yesterday benefits the home side more in this situation, play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Cleveland Indians (4:10 EST).

I had a play on the Tribe yesterday and they’d unfortuantely fall 1-0. With what I believe to be the clearly superior starter on the mound for it today though, I like Cleveland to bounce back this evening.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Jose Berrios (0-0, 0.00) who makes his season debut this afternoon. Berrios was dominant over five Triple-A outings, allowing five runs spanning six starts, a performance which gave him another shot at the big show. 

To say Berrios struggled in his rookie year though would be a bit of an understatement, as he’d post an 8.02 ERA and 1.87 WHIP over 14 starts.

The home side counters with Mike Clevinger (1-0, 0.00) who went six innings of scoreless one hit ball, walking four and striking out five in a spot-start victory over the Royals on Sunday. Before getting the call up on Saturday, Clevinger had posted a tiny 1.50 ERA and 1.10 WHIP to go along with 32 K’s over six starts in the minors. 

Note that he was 2-1 with a respectable 3.54 ERA in all home apperances last season.

I’ll also point out that Minnesota is just 7-10 (-3.4 units) in all “day” games this year, while Cleveland is 7-3 (+1.2 units) in the same position. 

I’m banking on Clevinger outdueling his counterpart, lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST).

Dylan Bundy has been hot of late for the Orioles, but I like Kansas City to build off its 6-0 win in Tampa Bay last night and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Bundy (5-1, 2.17 ERA) gave up three runs off six hits while striking out three over six innings in a win over the White Sox on Saturday. So far he’s been spot on this year, but I’ll point out that he owned a poor 5.21 ERA on the road last season.

The home side counters with Danny Duffy (2-3, 3.50) who has gotten progressively better with each outing in 2017, coming in off his best outing of the year, giving up one run off six hits and two walks while striking out two over 6.2 innings in an unfortunate loss to Cleveland on Sunday. 

Note that Duffy was 7-0 with a 3.57 ERA at home last season.

I’ll point out that Baltimore is already just 2-3 (-1.5 units) this season with a day off, while KC has been turning things around of late, having already gone 6-5 (+2 units) in the month of May.

Play on Kansas City.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago White Sox (8:10 EST).

I think this is a bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin (3-3, 5.26 ERA) who has been hit or miss all year and who comes in off a no-decision against the Dodgers on Friday, allowing one run off four hits and three walks over 5.1 innings. Chacin though is likely the biggest “Jekyl And Hyde” hurler in all of MLB right now, giving up just one total run in three home outings, compared to 23 runs over four road starts. 

Note that Chacin was just 2-6 with a 5.85 ERA on the road last season.

The home side counters with Miguel Gonzalez (3-2, 3.18) who gave up two runs off six hits and one walk while striking out five over 6.2 innings in an unfortunate loss to the Orioles on Friday.

Gonzalez has now allowed three or fewer runs in three of his last four starts and note that he owned a very respectable 3.29 ERA in all “night” games a year ago.

In my opinion, Gonzalez should be a much bigger fav in this matchup. Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (7:10 EST).

The Indians had Thursday off and while Ervin Santana has been hot of late, I still think that the Twins are poised for a letdown here after they held on for a 7-6 win in Chicago just last night.

Santana (5-1, 1.72 ERA) actually comes in off his worst outing of the year and I think is primed for another letdown here as well (the Red Sox blasted him for six earned runs, including four home runs over six frames.)

I’m not overreacting to one poor start, but I do think this is a bad spot for Minnesota regardless.

The home side counters with Josh Tomlin (2-3, 7.12) who comes in off his best outing of the year, giving up one run off three hits while striking out three over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision against Kansas City on Saturday. 

After a couple of disastrous starts to open 2017, Tomlin has settled down and has posted quality outings in three of his last four tries. 

I’ll point out as well that Minnesota is just 1-4 (-3 units) in its last five against right-handed starters, while Cleveland is 12-6 (+3.9 units) in the same position this year. 

Play on Cleveland.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST).

Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but I think this one favors Ty Blach and the home side.

The visitors hand the ball to Bronson Arroyo (3-2, 6.53 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits while striking out four over 5.1 innings in a victory over these very Giants last Friday. Arroyo for the most part has been completely erratic this season and I’m expecting some predictable regression this evening.

Blach is 0-2 with a 5.66 ERA and gave up the ten runs in his team’s loss throwing opposite Arroyo last week. 

Blach has a chance to redeem himself here and I think he’s going to be able to outduel his suspect vetrean counterpart. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (7:05 EST).

I think this is great value on arguably the hottest pitcher on the planet right now.

The visitors hand the ball to Dallas Keuchel (5-0, 1.88 ERA) who gave up two runs over seven innings in a no-decision against the Angels on Friday. 

The home side counters with Michael Pineda (3-1, 3.12) who gave up two runs off three hits and one walk while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision against the Cubs on Friday. Pineda has been solid to start the year, note though that he was just 4-5 with a 4.72 ERA at home last season.

Pineda gave up two solo home runs against the Cubs and while he’s been sharp, I think that Keuchel is on a completely different level right now.

I’m banking on Keuchel outdueling Pineda, play on Houston.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

Toronto has won two series in a row and in my opinion, this opening night matchup against the Mariners also works in its favor.

The visitors hand the ball to Chase De Jong (0-2, 6.75 ERA) who makes his third start of his career today, getting crushed by the Indians in his first outing, only to then rebound against the Rangers last week, giving up one run over six innings. So far he has six K’s and five walks over 13.1 innings of major league work. 

The home side counters with Marco Estrada (1-2, 3.14) who comes in off an outing to forget, giving up five runs off six hits and two walks while striking out seven over six innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday. 

Estrada wasn’t at his best, but note that he came into that one having given up just four earned runs over his previous four starts combined. 

Toronto is starting to find ways to win and I think can full advantage of this mismatch. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry