My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Minnesota Twins (8:10 EST).

Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to ace Jose Berrios (11-8, 3.75 ERA) who gave up four runs (three earned) over 3.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision to Pittsburgh on Wednesday. It was his shortest start since April though, so I’m not going to over-react. 

While Berrios has scuffled a bit of late, I’ll point out that he’s still a sharp 8-2 with a 2.79 ERA in all night games this year.

The home side counters with Michael Kopech (0-0, 0.00) who makes his major league debut tonight. Over 24 starts in Triple-A he has a poor 11.1 percent walk rate. 

I’ll point out as well that Minnesota is now 16-7 (+6.7 units) in its last 23 against clubs with losing records, while Chicago is just 11-12 in its last 23 in the same position.

All things considered a great price in my opinion. Play on Minnesota.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Washington Nationals (7:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. 

The visitors hand the ball to Vince Velasquez (8-9, 4.13 ERA) who comes in off back-to-back poor outings. Velasquez has taken a clear step back of late and I believe he’ll struggle again here in the Nation’s capital.

The home side counters with Tanner Roark (8-12, 4.13) who comes in off a strong outing against the Cubs on Thursday, giving up two runs while striking out seven over eight innings in the eventual victory. 

Roark comes in on top form, having gone at least seven innings and allowing two runs or less in four straight starts.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitchers and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by Roark suggests that he’s going to be able to easily out-duel his inconsistent counterpart this evening. Play on the Nationals.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers 10* (10:10 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Austin Gomber (3-0, 2.89 ERA) who went five scoreless against Washington on Wednesday for the win. He’s now posted 11 straight scoreless, but I think he’s poised for some regression in this difficult venue.

The home side counters with Alex Wood (7-6, 3.51) who gave up one run off three hits with six strikeouts over five innings to San Francisco on Tuesday, unfortunate to receive a no-decision. 

The southpaw has now given up one earned run or fewer in three straight starts, while also posting a tiny 2.43 ERA over his last ten trips to the hill.

Gomber takes a step back and Wood continues his dazzling play at home. Lay the price, play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians 8* (7:00 EST).

A prime time match-up features a couple of competent hurlers going head-to-head on Monday night. Despite how good Boston starter Rick Porcello has looked this season though, I think that Indians’ ace Corey Kluber is severely undervalued in this match-up.

Kluber (15-6, 2.68 ERA) gave up one run over seven innings in a win over Cincinnati on Tuesday. He gave up two hits and had seven strikeouts. He hasn’t been perfect, but he’s been very good, especially on the road with a 7-3, 3.27 ERA thus far.

Porcello (15-5, 4.04) gave up one un over seven innings in a win over the Phillies on Tuesday. For the most part Porcello has been sharp this year, but note that he does own the pedestrian 4.77 ERA at home to this point.

I don’t think these pitchers are as evenly matched as the oddsmakers want us to believe. Play on Cleveland.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Chicago Cubs (1:35 EST).

I had a play on the Cubs yesterday and while that pick came up short, I think the visitors will bounce back in the finale of this three game set on Sunday afternoon.

Chicago hands the ball to Jose Quintana (10-9, 4.46 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Brewers on Tuesday, conceding five runs off six hits over five innings. Note that he’s been better on the road (3.99 ERA) that at home (5.00).

The home side counters with Jameson Taillon (9-9, 3.66) who gave up three earned runs off seven hits and a walk over six innings Tuesday in what turned out to be a loss to the Twins. Taillon owns a 3.99 ERA at home, but note that Pittsburgh is just 15-22 (-7.8 units) against southpaws this year. 

The Cubs are 53-41 against right-handed starters. They’re also a solid 33-27 on the road (71-50 overall). 

I like Quintana to bounce back here and match Taillon inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to the revenge-minded underdog, Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atlanta Braves (1:35 EST).

The Braves fell 5-3 to the Rockies as -165 favorites yesterday. I think the home side bounces back in the finale of this three game set though.

The visitors hand the ball to German Marquez (10-9, 4.51 ERA) who struck out seven and walked two in a victory over Houston on Tuesday, ultimately giving up one run over seven innings. After a poor June, Marquez has been sharp since early July and not surprisingly he’s been better on the road than at home. But despite all of that, I still think he’ll have his hands full here.

The home side counters with Anibal Sanchez (6-3, 3.07) who for the most part has exceeded expectations as well this year. Note that he’s 2-1 with a 1.69 ERA in all day games thus far.

From a situational stand point though, this one highly favors the home side, as note that Colorado is just 16-24 (-8.3 units) in all day games, while Atlanta is 25-16 (+12 units) in the same position.

All things considered, a great price. Play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the San Francisco Giants (1:10 EST).

I had a play on the Giants yesterday and while that pick came up empty, I think the visiting side will bounce back in the finale of this three-game set on Sunday afternoon.

San Francisco sends Andrew Suarez (4-8, 4.40 ERA) to the hill, and he most recently went six scoreless with four K’s in an unfortunate no-decision to the Dodgers on Tuesday. 

The home side counters with the volatile Luis Castillo (6-10, 5.04) who was rocked for five runs off five hits with one walk while striking out seven over 5.2 innings in a loss to the Diamondbacks on Sunday. He’s now given up three homers over his last 11 innings of work. 

Despite yesterday’s setback the Giants are still 25-17 (+13 units) in all day games, while the Reds are just 22-26 in the same position.

Suarez has been far from perfect, but I think the rookie is the correct call here as I like the Giants to respond in this bounce back situation and facing the erratic Castillo. Play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (10:10 EST).

I think that this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Rich Hill (5-4, 3.57 ERA) who comes in off back-to-back strong outings and who owns a sharp 1.40 ERA over his last 30.1 innings of work. Note that he’s been particularly effective on the road as well with the 3-1, 3.11 ERA record to this point.

The home side counters with Erasmo Ramirez (0-2, 6.75) who returned from injury to take on the Astros in his last start. Ramirez looked decent, but overall he’s been terrible this season. 

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by Hill suggests he’s going to be able to easily out-duel Ramirez. Lay the price, play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (7:10 EST).

Two starters who have seen better days collide in this one on Saturday night, but for a number of different reasons, I think it favors crafty veteran southpaw Madison Bumgarner and the visiting San Francisco Giants.

Bumgarner (4-4, 2.71 ERA) most recently gave up two runs off seven hits with two walks while striking out four over six innings on Monday. He continues to battle and note that he owns a sharp 2.67 ERA in all night games so far this year.

The home side counters with the volatile Matt Harvey (5-7, 5.19) who gave up two runs off five hits with one walk while striking out seven in a no-decision to the Cardinals on Sunday. He was destroyed for eight runs over three innings in his previous outing. Note that he owns a poor 5.08 ERA at home.

I’m banking on Harvey taking a predictable step back here, and I expect Bumgarner to step up and take advantage. Play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (8*) 7:05 EST).

I think Cubs’ starter Tyler Chatwood will get the better of Pirates’ right-hander Joe Musgrove on Saturday night.

Chatwood (4-5, 5.06 ERA) has been better on the road (3.99 ERA) than at home this year (5.52) and he’ll be getting a second chance in the rotation filling in for the injured Mike Montgomery. 

Musgrove (4-7, 3.49) started his 2018 campaign on fire but he’s predictably come back down to Earth. Most recently he gave up four runs off seven hits over six innings  in a loss to San Francisco on Sunday. 

Musgrove has been much better on the road (2.18 ERA) than at home (4.90) as well.

I’m banking on Chatwood getting the better of Musgrove. Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Houston Astros (4:05 EST).

As good as Trevor Cahill has looked in the early going for the A’s, I still think that Dallas Keuchel and the defending champs have the advantage in this one.

Keuchel (9-9, 3.43 ERA) has struggled at times this year, but he’s been very good since early July, posting a tiny 1.97 ERA over seven starts. Note that he’s consistently been at his best on the road as well with the solid 6-4, 3.00 ERA record thus far.

Cahill (4-2, 3.39) looked very average in his last start, giving up four runs off seven hits over 4.2 innings. It’s hard to say too many negative things about Cahill, so I won’t bother. I will point out though that the Astros are now 8-2 in their last ten road day games in which they’re a favorite in the -125 to -150 range. 

I’m banking on Keuchel getting the better of Cahill in this one. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Mariners (10:10 EST).

I think that Wade LeBlanc and the hard-hitting home side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one.

The visitors hand the ball to Walker Buehler (5-4, 3.32 ERA) who comes in off a win over Houston on Sunday, giving up two earned runs off four hits over 5.1 innings. For the most part Buehler’s been solid this year, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

And that’s because note that the M’s are 7-2 in their last nine as home dog in the +105 to +150 range.

The home side goes with Wade LeBlanc (7-2, 3.80) who gave up one run off two hits with one walk while striking out four over 6.1 innings in a no-decision to the Rangers on Monday. 

He’s been far from perfect this year, but he’s been almost perfect at home this season by going 6-1 with a very respectable 3.50 ERA. 

I like LeBlanc to match Buehler inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I like the hungry home side. Play on the Mariners.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:15 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up. 

The visitors hand the ball to Freddy Peralta (5-3, 4.47 ERA) who for the most part has looked great this season. He’s shown some signs of slowing down of late though, having allowed 15 walks and 16 hits spanning his last four trips to the hill.

The home side counters with Joe Flaherty (6-6, 3.22) who had his start pushed back to Friday. Over 19 starts the 22-year old has exceeded expectations, posting the 3.22 ERA and a 127/36 K/W over 103.1 frames of work. 

I’m banking on Flaherty getting the better of his now scuffling rookie counterpart. Great price, play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Philadelphia Phllies (6:05 EST).

All eyes will be in Philadelphia on Friday night for the much anticipated pitching match-up between the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard and the Phillies’ Aaron Nola. I think Nola is the safe wager here though, as he’s been unbeatable at home to this point.

Syndergaard (8-2, 3.22 ERA) comes in off a couple of strong outings since coming off the DL. It’s hard to say anything negative about Syndergaard, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. 

Nola (13-3, 2.28) comes in off back-to-back strong performances as well. His 0.99 WHIP and 144/40 K/W over 148 innings, combined with his perfect 8-0, 2.07 ERA record at home make the Phillies the correct call here. 

Lay the price, play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Twins (10*) 8:10 EST

The Tigers lost 6-5 at home to the White Sox yesterday afternoon, while the Twins were busy taking care of business in a 6-4 victory at home over the Pirates. While neither of these starting pitchers instills much confidence, I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Francisco Liriano (3-7, 4.42 ERA) who gave up three runs over five innings off six hits with four walks in a loss to these very Twins last Saturday. His peripherals (7.2 K/9 and 5.2 BB/9) suggest that further regression is in store down the stretch.

The home side counters with Ervin Santana (0-1, 6.53) who gave up five runs off three hits over six innings while striking out five in a loss to Detroit last Friday. Santana has struggled since returning from the DL, but the veteran has the track record and pedigree to start reversing that trend and making some positive ground with his numbers. 

Note as well that Minnesota is 33-23 (+7.3 units) at home this year, while Detroit is just 18-41 (-14.8 units) on the road.

I like Santana to put together his best effort yet and to find a way to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price, play on the Twins.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (8*) 7:35 EST

Colorado was busy losing 12-1 in Houston last night after taking the first two games of its inter-league series earlier in the week, while Atlanta pulled away late for a 5-2 win over the Marlins.

I think the home side finds a way to get the job done in the opener of this one as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Jon Gray (9-7, 4.81 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits over eight innings in a no-decision to Milwaukee on Sunday. Gray has been fantastic of late, but regression does seem imminent at some point. Note that he’s still just 4-4 with a  poor 4.99 ERA on the road this year as well.

The home side counters with Julio Teheran (8-7, 4.33) who gave up three runs off five hits and four walks while striking out six over 5.2 innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Sunday. Teheran has been decent overall this season though and has been better at home (4-2, 3.79) than on the road (4-5, 4.93).

I think Gray takes a step back and I like Teheran to take advantage in front of the home town crowd. Play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (8*) 7:05 EST

I had a play on the Cubs yesterday, but I think that the home side bounces back with its ace on the mound.

The visitors hand the ball to Jon Lester (12-5, 3.89 ERA) who comes in off a couple of crummy starts against the Padres and Nationals. Overall Lester has been strong and while it’s too early yet to hit the panic button, recent form displayed suggests that the veteran is running out of gas.

The home side counters with Ivan Nova (7-6, 4.42) who gave up four runs over four innings in a fortunate no-decision to St. Louis on Saturday. Nova’s numbers have all been regressing as well over the last month, but he’s been much better at home (3.25 ERA) than on the road (5.38).

Chicago is still just 10-11 (-2.9 units) in its last 21 against clubs with winning records, while Pitsburgh is 14-10 (+6.2 units) in its last 24 in the same position.

I like Nova to continue his steady play at home and I look for the Pirates to bounce back after yesterday’s defeat by taking advantage of a now scuffling Lester. Play on Pittsburgh.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Reds (7:10 EST).

I think the Reds offer great value in a bounce back roll at home today after yesterday’s humbling 8-1 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Shane Bieber (6-2, 4.24 ERA) who gave up two runs off seven hits with one walk while striking out seven over 5.2 innings in a victory over the Angels on Sunday. Bieber has been better than average this year with a 58/11 K/W over 57 innings of work. But note that his 4.24 ERA and 1.42 WHIP aren’t anything to write home about.

The home side counters with Robert Stephenson (0-1, 6.75) who has been called up to make this start. Stephenson comes in on top form, having posted a minuscule 1.61 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 68/22 K/W over 56 innings spanning nine starts in Triple-A.

Despite yesterday’s setback, note that Cincinnati is still a profitable 10-7 (+4.3 units) this year in all inter-league contests. 

And despite yesterday’s win, note that Cleveland is still a money-burning 3-6 (-5.6 units) in its last nine on the road as a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. 

I like Stephenson to get the better of Bieber. Play on the Reds.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Oakland A’s (3:35 EST).

I had a play on the A’s in their victory yesterday and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done here as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Leake (8-7, 4.11 ERA) who gave up three earned runs off nine hits over 6.2 innings in a no-decision to the Jays on Sunday. Leake’s been decent of late, but I still think he’ll have his hands full today with this difficult opponent/venue.

The home side counters with Brett Anderson (2-3, 4.53) who went seven scoreless against Detroit on Friday, allowing one walk and striking out two in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. It was his third quality start of the year and there’s no reason not to think that the veteran won’t be able to carry that momentum over here as well (note that Anderson sports a very respectable 3.25 ERA in all day games so far this year).

Note as well that Seattle is a sub-par 19-20 (-6 units) this year against southpaws, while Oakland is 47-29 (+21.9 units) this season against right-handed pitching.

Look for Anderson to get the better of his veteran counterpart. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Chicago Cubs (2:20 EST).

I had a play on the Cubs yesterday and while that one came up empty, I like the revenge-minded home side to find a way to get the job done on Wednesday afternoon.

The visitors hand the ball to Junior Guerra (6-7, 3.40 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits over eight innings on a no-decision to Colorado on Friday. 

Guerra is putting together his best campaing of his four year career, but if he’s had one clear weakness it’s been his play on the road where he’s just 3-4 with a 5.01 ERA.

The home side counters with Kyle Hendricks (8-9, 4.02) who gave up two runs while striking out five over six innings in a no-decision to Washington on Friday. While he’s just 4-6 at home, he sports a much better ERA in Chicago (3.29) compared to on the road (4.65).

Note that despite yesterday’s victory, the Brewers are still just 18-30 (-16.1 units) in all day games this year. And despite yesterday’s setback, note that the Cubs are still 36-21 (+5.3 units) in all day contests this season. 

I like Hendricks to get the better of Guerra and for the Cubs to answer for yesterday’s setback. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (8*) 10:10 EST

I think this match-up on the mound favors the hard-hitting visiting side.

The Angels hand the ball to Jaime Barria (7-7, 3.59 ERA) who comes in off back-to-back strong outings, most recently going five scoreless in a victory. Barria has to be feeling confident here as he enters with the highly respectable 3.25 ERA on the road so far.

The home side counters with the volatile Brett Kennedy (0-1, 13.50) who went 10-0 with a 2.72 ERA over 89.1 innings in Triple-A before then getting destroyed in his MLB debut against the Brewers. The sky is the limit for Kennedy perhaps, but I think he’s going to struggle again against this opportunistic and talented Angels’ line-up.

I’m banking on Barria continuing his strong play on the road, while recent form displayed by the Padres’ rookie points to another “long” night. Great price, play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oakland A’s (10*) 10:05 EST

Oakland’s Mike Fiers was “on fire” for the Tigers for well over a month before he was traded and the veteran right-hander has carried that momentum over after two starts for his new team as well.

The Mariners’ James Paxton is putting together another fine campaign, but I think he’ll have his hands full against the surging Fiers and the hard-hitting home side.

Paxton (10-5, 3.63 ERA) comes in off back-to-back strong outings, but note that he still owns a rather pedestrian 4.44 ERA on the road this season.

Fiers (7-6, 3.40) has looked dominant in back-to-back outings as well for the A’s and there’s no reason not to think that the crafty right-hander can’t carry that momentum over here.

Now throw in the fact that the A’s are 25-14 in their last 39 as a home dog in the +105 to +135 range, then there’s no question in my mind that the value in this one is indeed on Oakland.

Play on the A’s.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Nationals (8*) 8:15 EST

I like Gio Gonzalez to get the better of John Gant in this matchup on the mound.

Gonzalez (7-8, 3.89 ERA) has been more “miss” than “hit” over the last month and a half, but he’s coming off a decent outing against the Braves and note that he owns a very respectable 3.99 ERA on the road to this point.

Gant (4-4, 3.89) comes in off a win over Miami on Wednesday, allowing one run over six innings of work. Gant still only has three quality starts out of his 11 trips to the hill this season though and note that the Cards have struggled in this spot as well by going just 2-8 in their last ten at home when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125. 

I like Gonzalez to get back on track and I expect the Nationals to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Play on Washington.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Chicago Cubs (2:20 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup on the mound.

The Brewers go with Jhoulys Chacin (11-4, 3.91 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits and a walk while striking out three over six innings in a win over the Padres on Wednesday. In his previous outing he had been rocked for nine runs with three long-balls. 

It’s hard to say too many negative things about Chacin though, as overall this season he’s been sharp. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

The home side counters with Jose Quintana (10-8, 4.28) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Royals on Wednesday, allowing five runs while striking out four over 6.1 innings of work. 

Quintana has had a couple blow-ups this season, but note that he’s 5-2 with a 3.99 ERA at home.

I’ll point out as well that Chicago is 7-2 in its last nine National League day contests in which its a home favorite in the -150 to -175 range. 

I’m banking on Quintana getting back on track and for the Cubs to take advantage. Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:10 EST).

The Cards won big on the road in Kansas City over the weekend and I think they carry that momentum over here at home against the visiting Nationals, who were in action on Sunday night.

Washington hands the ball to Tommy Milone (1-1, 5.50 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits over seven innings in a victory over the anemic Mets on Monday. So far he’s looked sharp since getting the call up from Triple-A, allowing just four runs over 12 innings of work. However, there’s no question that this represents his most difficult outing so far.

The home side counters with Miles Mikolas (12-3, 2.74) who gave up two runs over seven innings in a victory over the Marlins on Tuesday. To go along with his highly respectable ERA, note that Mikolas also sports an elite 1.07 WHIP (additionally note that he’s been especially tough at home with the 5-3, 2.01 ERA record thus far.)

I’m banking on Mikolas continuing his steady play at home, while all signs point to Milone showing some regression after his decent start. Lay the price, play on the Cards.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cleveland Indians (7:10 EST).

Ultimately I believe that Mike Clevinger and the hard-hitting visiting side could in fact be much larger favorites in this particular matchup.

Clevinger (7-7, 3.38 ERA) most recently gave up three runs off five hits while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision against the Angels on Friday. It was a big step in the right direction after a three-game slump and I think the right-hander carries that momentum over here. Note that he owns a sharp 1.22 WHIP and he has 139 K’s over 139.2 innings of work this season.

The home side counters with Homer Bailey (1-9, 6.19) who was most recently rocked for five runs off 11 hits over three innings in a loss to the Mets on Monday. With a 1.59 WHIP and just 54 K’s over 80 innings of work, Bailey can only be viewed as a complete disaster at this point.

Note that Bailey is 0-5 with a 6.85 ERA at home as well.

I like Clevinger to carry over his recent momentum, while recent form displayed by Bailey suggests he has another long night in store for him against the Tribe’s big bats. Lay the price, play on Cleveland.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New York Mets (7:05 EST).

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and that’s what I’m basing this particular selection on.

And that’s because I absolutely believe that Mets’ ace Jacob DeGrom can easily match Yanks’ ace Luis Severino inning for inning. And in a scenario like that, I in turn believe that the value swings to the hungry underdog.

DeGrom (6-7, 1.77 ERA) gave up two runs off six hits with nine K’s over eight innings in an unfortunate setback to Atlanta on Friday. He now has 14 straight quality starts and note that he’s been particularly effective on the road by posting a 1.91 ERA thus far.

Severino (15-5, 3.11) gave up four runs off seven hits with three walks over 5.1 innings in a loss to Boston on Friday. Severino comes in with zero momentum, having posted a deplorable 8.28 ERA, 1.88 WHIP and 21/7 K/W over his last 25 innings of work.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly asses a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Severino is in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight. Bank on the Mets finally giving DeGrom some support vs. the struggling Severino.

Good luck…Larry 

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Washington Nationals (8:05 EST).

While Cole Hamels has looked decent in two appearances for his new club, I think he’s going to stumble on the national stage facing Washington’s high-powered line-up and squaring off against Cy Young candidate Max Scherzer.

Scherzer (15-5, 2.28 ERA) most recently gave up one run off four hits over seven innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision to Atlanta on Tuesday. His peripherals suggest that he can maintain his form (0.90 WHIP) to the end and note that he’s got to be feeling confident in this spot as he’s so far 8-3 with a 2.00 ERA on the road.

Hamels (7-9, 4.38) gave up one run to the Royals over six innings in his last start.

I think Hamels though will not be able to match pace with Scherzer and I look for the Nationals to build off their big win on Saturday. Overall a fantastic price in my opinion, play on Washington.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Diego Padres (9*) 3:40 EST

I like the home side to bounce back and take the finale of this three-game series.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Jake Arrieta (9-6, 3.11 ERA) who comes in off a gem against the Diamondbacks on Monday, going eight scoreless while striking out four. His peripherals (poor 9.8 percent K/BB rate) suggest that his numbers are unsustainable down the stretch though and I’m expecting regression sooner, rather than later. 

The home side counters with Joey Lucchesi (5-6, 3.70) who gave up three runs (just two earned) while striking out nine in an unfortunate no-decision to the Cubs on Sunday. The hard-throwing southpaw comes into this one sporting an impressive 87/28 K/W so far.

The Phillies are 64-51 overall this season, but just 26-33 (-4.6 units) on the road. I think that Lucchesi can match Arrieta inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel that the value swings to the hungry underdog home side. Play on the Padres.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8*) 1:35 EST

I like Milwaukee to build off yesterday’s 4-2 victory.

The visitors hand the ball to Chase Anderson (7-7, 3.81 ERA) who gave up four runs off five hits with four K’s over five innings in a no-decision on Tuesday. Previous to that he’d posted three straight quality efforts and he still comes in sporting a very respectable 100/48 K/W over 125.1 innings of work. Additionally note that Anderson owns a sharp 2.59 ERA in all road games this season.

The home side counters with Sean Newcomb (10-5, 3.15) who gave up one run off five hits over six innings in a no-decision to Washington on Tuesday. Over his last three starts the 25 year old has conceded just three runs. I’ll point out though that if he’s had one “weak” area, it’s been his play on the road where he owns a rather pedestrian 3-3, 4.50 ERA record to this point.

These teams are moving in opposite directions right now, as Milwaukee is 9-6 (+4.2 units) in its last 15 against clubs with winning records, while Atlanta is just 8-12 (-2 units) in its last 20 in the same position. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cincinnati Reds (8*) 1:10 EST

I like the Reds to build off their 6-3 victory yesterday.

The visitors hand the ball to Zack Godley (12-6, 4.35 ERA) who comes in off a couple of strong outings. Godley has admittedly been much better of late, but note that he’s 6-2 with a 3.33 ERA at home, compared to 6-4 with a  5.96 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Luis Castillo (6-9, 4.91) who gave up two runs off six hits with two walks while striking out three over 5.1 innings in a tough-luck loss to Washington on Sunday. He’d go on to throw 61 of his 88 pitches for strikes and he’s now allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last four trips to the hill.

Arizona is the “better” team here overall clearly, but note that it’s still just 17-21 (-6.6 units) in all day games this season. The Reds have struggled all year in most statistical categories, so that’s why it’s important to note that they’re now a solid 14-8 (+10.2 units) in their last 22 against teams with winning records.

I’m banking on Castillo getting the better of Godley. Play on Cincinnati.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:15 EST).

I think that Joe Flaherty and the hard-hitting visiting side could easily be a lot larger favorites in this one than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The Cards hand the ball to Joe Flaherty (5-6, 3.27 ERA) who went six scoreless against the Pirates on Sunday, allowing three hits and posting seven strikeouts. To go along with his very respectable ERA, Flaherty also sports a sharp 1.10 WHIP and 11.0 K/9. 

The home side counters the volatile Danny Duffy (7-10, 4.70) who was most recently rocked for six runs off eight hits with one walk over six innings in a loss to Minnesota on Sunday. To go along with his poor ERA, Duffy also owns a pedestrian 1.48 WHiP. 

Additionally I’ll point out that St. Louis is 10-6 on the road this year as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while KC is just 6-10 as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range.

This one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion. Lay the price, play on the Cards.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Mariners (7:10 EST).

I played James Paxton and the Mariners in the opener of this series (a victory) and I’m back on the visiting side here as well, as I think that Wade LeBlanc and the hard hitting M’s have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. 

LeBlanc (6-2, 3.81 ERA) gave up one run off two hits with one walk while striking out four over 6.1 innings in a no-decision to Texas on Monday. LeBlanc bounced back from a rough start in his previous outing and while he’s been far from perfect, his 1.15 WHIP and 90 K’s over 113 innings are both respectable.

The home side counters with Charlie Morton (12-2, 2.81) who gave up one run off three hits with three walks while striking out eight over seven innings in a victory over San Francisco on Monday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Morton, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that LeBlanc can match his effort inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I do indeed believe that the value swings to the hungry dog.

Play on the Mariners.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Minnesota Twins (6:10 EST).

Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to the steady Kyle Gibson (5-9, 3.60 ERA) who gave up six runs off seven hits and three walks while striking out three over five innings. Starts like that though have been few and far between for Gibson this year and to go along with his very respectable overall ERA, he also sports a sharp 1.24 WHIP and 135/56 K/W over 140 innings (note as well that he owns a very respectable 3.23 ERA on the road.)

The home side goes with Francisco Liriano (3-6, 4.37) who gave up two runs off five hits with two walks over five innings in a loss to Oakland on Sunday. Liriano has struggled overall this season though, coming in with a pedestrian 73/51 K/W over 90.2 inning (note that he has a poor 5.08 ERA at home as well.) 

Additionally I’ll point out that Minnesota is 12-4 (+6.6 units) in its last 16 against teams with a losing record in the second half of the season.

I’m banking on Gibson carrying over his steady play on the road, while I expect Liriano to once again take a step back at home. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Chicago Cubs (4:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Tanner Roark (6-12, 4.21 ERA) who comes in off a strong outing against the anemic Reds on Sunday, giving up one run off seven hits while striking out two in the eventual victory. Roark has looked decent with three straight victories, but I’ll point out that he’s still a horrible 2-6 on the road to this point.

The home side counters with Jon Lester (12-4, 3.44) who comes in off an outing to forget on Sunday, allowing five runs off eight hits with two walks in a 10-6 loss to the Padres on Sunday. 

Lester has admittedly struggled over the last month after an unbelievable start to the 2018 campaign, but the veteran has to be feeling confident here as he’s still 5-2 with a respectable 3.41 ERA at home this season. 

I’ll point out as well that Washington is just 12-19 (-15.2 units) against southpaws this year (also only 22-23 in all day games), while Chicago is 35-20 (+5.6 units) this season in all day contests and 50-39 against right-handed starters.

I’m banking on Lester getting the better of Roark. Great price, play on the Cubs.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (9*) 7:35 EST

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Freddy Peralta (5-2, 3.54 ERA) who gave up two runs off two hits with two walks while striking out eight over six innings in a victory over the Rockies on Saturday. Overall the rookie has been solid across the board, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

The home side goes with Kevin Gausman (5-9, 4.47) who gave up three runs off six hits over five innings in a loss to the Mets on Saturday. 

Gausman will look to earn his first win for his new team this time around though and take advantage of the fact that Atlanta is 28-22 at home overall and 14-9 (+5.4 units) at home when the money line in the contest is between +125 and -125. 

Milwaukee is 66-52 overall, but just 3-5 in August and I think further regression is in store here in the opener of this difficult series. Play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (8*) 7:10 EST

I like Zach Wheeler to out-duel the volatile Jose Urena in this one.

Wheeler (6-6, 3.89 ERA) most recently gave up three hits and one walk while striking out nine over seven innings in a victory over Atlanta on Saturday. 

Wheeler was on top form in that one, throwing 73 of his 104 pitches for strikes, while also generating 16 swinging strikes. Over his last 38.2 innings of work Wheeler has now given up just 11 earned runs, while posting 39 K’s. Note that he’s 3-1 with a 3.81 ERA on the road as well.

Urena (3-11, 4.66) most recently got rocked for six runs off eight hits, including three dingers in a loss to the Phillies on Saturday. It was the third time in his last four trips to the hill that the declining right-hander has given up at least five or more earned runs. 

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. 

Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Urena will not be able to match pace with the red hot Wheeler. Great price, play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (8*) 7:10 EST

Ultimately I believe that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to think.

The visitors hand the ball to Clay Buchholz (5-1, 2.68 ERA) who gave up two runs off seven hits with two walks and eight K’s in a victory over the Giants on Saturday. It was his fourth straight victory, a stretch in which he’s allowed no more than three runs in any start. Note that he’s been particularly tough on the road as well with a 3-1, 2.10 ERA record to this point.

The home side counters with Anthony DeSclafani (5-3, 4.98) who gave up one run off six hits with a walk over seven innings in a victory over Washington on Saturday. DeSclafani though has been very lacklustre at home with the 2-2, 5.85 ERA record to this point.

I think Buchholz is the correct call here. Great value overall considering how well the veteran has performed on the road. I’m expecting a rout from start to finish, so lay the very reasonable price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* MLB GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Tampa Bay Rays (7:05 EST).

For a number of different reasons, I think that Blake Snell and the visiting side could easily be much larger favorites in this particular matchup North of the border.

The Rays hand the ball to ace Snell (12-5, 2.27 ERA) who returned from the ten-day DL to make a start against the White Sox last Thursday and he looked good in his limited time, giving up one run over four innings. Snell has been solid on the road as well with a 6-4, 3.34 ERA record so far.

The home side counters with the volatile Marco Estrada (5-8, 4.65) who comes in off his best start of the year, allowing one run over seven innings in a victory over the Mariners on Saturday. Starts like that have been few and far between for Estrada over the last two seasons though and his 10.4 percent K/BB rate this year is his worst since 2008. Note that he’s just 2-4 with a 4.90 ERA at home.

I’ll point out as well that Tampa is already 15-10 (+4.4 units) this year on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 to -125, while Toronto is just 9-15 (-6.5 units) at home with a money line in the same range.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rays.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Mariners (8:10 EST)

Justin Verlander has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last year, but James Paxton hasn’t been too shabby either in that span. I think Paxton and the hard-hitting Mariners have much more than just a “punchers chance” on Thursday night.

Paxton (9-5, 3.51 ERA) most recently allowed three runs off eight hits over seven innings while striking out seven and issuing one walk in an unfortunate loss to Toronto on Saturday.

Paxton was on top form, generating 17 swinging strikes on 105 pitches. Note that he’s 4-2 with a 3.84 ERA on the road as well and 7-2 with a 2.98 ERA in all night games.

Verlander (11-6, 2.19) most recently gave up one run while striking out 14 over 7.2 innings in a victory over the Dodgers on Friday. It’s basically impossible to say anything negative about Verlander, so I won’t even bother trying. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

And that’s because Houston is just 1-4 in its last five as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Seattle is 47-30 (+15.8 unit) against right-handed starters. 

I like Paxton to match Verlander inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel that the value swings to the hungry dog. Play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (9*) 10:05 EST

I had a play on the Dodgers last night and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done on Wednesday as well.

The visitors hand the ball to ace Clayton Kershaw (5-5, 2.55 ERA) who gave up two earned runs off five hits and two walks while striking out seven over six innings in a victory over Milwaukee on Thursday. Kershaw has now posted six straight quality starts, going 4-1 with 35 K’s over 38.1 innings of work in the process. Note that he owns a tiny 1.94 ERA on the road as well so far.

The home side goes with the newly acquired Mike Fiers (7-6, 3.48) who was on fire for the Tigers before the trade, posting a 2.10 ERA over six starts. Fiers is enjoying a resurgent campaign after going 8-10 with a 5.22 ERA last season. 

I think it’s important to note that LA is 35-25 against clubs with winning records this year, while Oakland is just 27-32 in the same position. 

I love Kershaw in this spot, as I think Fiers will stumble in his first outing for his new club. Lay the price, play on LA.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Boston Red Sox (7:05 EST).

Boston pulled away/held on for the 10-7 win in the opener of this three game series yesterday and I think the visitors will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night here as well.

The Red Sox hand the ball to Brian Johnson (2-3, 3.74 ERA) who earned a win over the Yanks on Thursday despite allowing five runs off six hits. The silver-lining behind the rather pedestrian effort was that he’d go on to strike out 11. Note that he owns a 2.22 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Mike Hauschild (1-0, 0.00) who went six scoreless to earn a win over Seattle in his big league debut last week. Clearly it was a great start to his career, but I’ll caution in reading too much into one decent performance, as note that Hauschild would post a poor 4.88 ERA and 1.55 WHIP over 97 innings at Triple-A Fresno.

I’ll point out as well that Boston has been dominant in this spot for bettors all season by going 62-23 (+27.2 units) vs. right-handed starters, while Toronto comes in having gone just 14-26 (-11 units) against southpaws this year. 

I like Johnson to find a way to get the job done here and for the hard-hitting Red Sox to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (8*) 4:05 EST

The Angels hammered the Tigers 11-5 yesterday and I think another blowout is in the cards this afternoon as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Blaine Hardy (4-3, 3.25 ERA) who struck out six and went seven scoreless in a victory over the A’s on Friday. Hardy has been excellent in a starters role and it’s difficult to say too many negative things about him, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

The home side counters with Jaime Barria (6-7, 3.84) who gave up three runs off six hits and two walks over five innings in a no-decision to Cleveland on Friday. Barria has been solid as a starter as well this year and he has to be feeling pretty confident here as he sports an elite 2.15 ERA in all day games this season.

I’ll point out as well that Detroit is just 9-19 (-5.9 units) as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range this year, while LA is 17-10 this season as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. 

All things considered, I feel this line could in fact be a lot larger. Play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (8*) 3:40 EST

I think the Diamondbacks will bounce back here after yesterday’s late loss to the Phillies.

The visitors hand the ball to Vince Velasquez (8-8, 3.80 ERA) who went 6.1 scoreless while striking out seven in a victory over the Marlins on Friday. After a rocky stretch, Velasquez has gotten back on track and it is in fact quite difficult to say too many negative things about the right-hander. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

The home side counters with Patrick Corbin (8-4, 3.31) who comes in off a strong outing as well last Friday against San Francisco, conceding three runs off seven hits over six innings while striking out eight and walking zero. Corbin sports an elite 1.06 WHIP and 174 K’s to go along with 12 quality starts this season.

I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia is still just 25-31 (-3.6 units) on the road this year, while Arizona is 7-2 in its last nine after scoring one or less runs in its previous outing. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Dodgers (10:05 EST).

I think Rich Hill can carry over his recent momentum and I like the hard-hitting visiting side to do the rest.

Hill (4-4, 3.63 ERA) gave up one run off six hits and a walk while striking out four over six innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision to Milwaukee on Wednesday. 

Hill has now allowed only two earned runs while striking out 23 over his last 19 innings of work. Since returning from the DL in mid June he’s posted a tiny 2.36 ERA and all signs point to the veteran continuing his progression.

The home side counters with Sean Manaea (10-7, 3.38) who gave up one run off five hits over six innings while striking out five in a victory over Toronto on Wednesday. It’s hard to say too many negative things about Manaea, as for the most part he’s been as solid as Oakland could have possibly asked for this season, so I won’t even bother trying. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

And that’s because note that the Dodgers are 10-4 in their last 14 as a road fav in the -105 to -125 range. I think this one favors the National League team. Play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (9:40 EST).

I think Nick Pivetta offers great value in the underdog role here. 

Pivetta (6-9, 4.75 ERA) comes in off a great start against the Marlins on Thursday, giving up two runs off four hits with zero walks and striking out seven over six innings in what ultimately turned out to be a no-decision. 

Pivetta ranks 14th in the entire league with 141 K’s over just 113.2 innings of work this year. 

The home side counters with Zack Greinke (12-6, 2.96) who gave up two runs off four hits over six innings in a loss to San Francisco on Thursday. It’s hard to say too many negative things about Greinke, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

And that’s because note that the Phillies are 7-2 in their last nine as a road dog in the +150 to +225 range. Everything points to an upset, play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

I don’t think that the the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. 

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Drew Pomeranz (1-5, 6.56 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits while striking out three over five innings in a loss to Philadelphia on Tuesday. He threw just 50 of his 95 pitches for strikes and hit two batters. He also had diminished velocity at 89.1 MPH.

The home side goes with Marcus Stroman (4-8, 5.63) who comes in off an outing to forget against the A’s on Wednesday, giving up seven runs off 11 hits over five innings. He gave up more runs in this “dud” than in his previous four outings combined, so I’m not going to over-react to one poor performance.

Both starters have struggled this season, but I look for Stroman to get back on track in friendly confines and easily get the better of the “gas can” Pomeranz. Play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Houston Astros (3:45 EST).

I think this one favors the surging Dallas Keuchel and the defending champs.

Keuchel (9-9, 3.61 ERA) most recently gave up three runs off eight hits and a walk over seven innings in a win over the Mariners on Wednesday. It was his fifth quality start in his last six trips to the hill and I think he carries over that consistent momentum here (also note that he’s 4-1 with a 3.86 ERA on the road this season.) 

The home side counters with Madison Bumgarner (4-4, 2.97) who gave up one earned run off seven hits and three walks while striking out five over five innings in a victory over Arizona on Thursday. 

Bumgarner was perhaps a bit “lucky,” as he allowed ten base runners in the victory and he only generated 11 swinging strikes on 101 total pitches. Also note that his 3.7 BB/9 over 66.2 innings leaves everything to be desired.

Bumgarner’s peripherals suggest that his numbers are unsustainable and I look for the Astros to take advantage. Play on Houston.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST).

I think the home side will find a way to get the job done here in the opener of this three-game National League series.

The visitors hand the ball to Jake Arrieta (9-6, 3.32 ERA) who gave up one run over seven innings in a win over Boston on Tuesday. For the most part Arrieta has been as good as Philadelphia could have possibly asked for this season, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

The home side counters with Zack Godley (12-6, 4.46) who went seven scoreless against Texas on Tuesday, giving up two hits and one walk to go along with ten strikeouts. 

Godley looked dominant in producing 19 swinging strikes. Note that he’s posted a 2.73 ERA and a 36/8 K/W over his last 29.2 innings of work. 

I’ll point out as well that Arizona is 7-3 in its last ten as a home fav in the -125 to -150 range. The value is simply too good to turn down, play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (9*) 9:40 EST

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. 

The visitors hand the ball to Joe Musgrove (4-5, 3.63 ERA) who gave up one run off five hits over six innings in a loss to the Mets on Sunday. Musgrove has admittedly been decent since the All-Star Game, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this difficult venue.

The home side counters with Kyle Freeland (9-7, 3.20) who gave up three runs while striking out five over 5.1 innings in a loss to St. Louis on Wednesday. 

Freeland’s been far from perfect, but he’s still given up three or fewer runs in eight of his last nine starts and note that he’s been particularly effective at hitter friendly Coors Field, sporting an awesome 6-2, 2.45 ERA at home thus far.

I think Musgrove stumbles and I like Freeland to continue his steady play in front of the home town crowd. Great price, play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8*) 7:10 EST

I like St. Louis to build off yesterday’s 2-1 win at Pittsburgh, while I look for Miami to have a letdown here after its 5-3 loss at Philadelphia.

The visitors hand the ball to Luke Weaver (6-9, 4.75 ERA) who gave up two runs while striking out three over 2.2 innings in a no-decision to the Rockies on Wednesday. It was his shortest start of the year, but Weaver clearly catches a break here facing the Marlins’ anemic line-up. 

The home side counters with the volatile Wei-Yin Chen (3-8, 5.86) who has been better at home than on the road, but note that he’s still a terrible 1-7 with a 5.86 ERA in all night games.

I’ll point out as well that St. Louis is 15-10 in its last 25 as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Miami just 3-7 in its last ten as a home dog in the +125 to +200 range.

I think Weaver can out-duel his inconsistent counterpart and I like the Cardinals’ big bats to do the rest. Lay the price, play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (8*) 7:10 EST

I don’t normally lay chalk of this size, but in this case I think it’s well justified. 

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Homer Bailey (1-8, 5.87 ERA) who gave up two runs over eight innings in a setback to Detroit on Tuesday. Bailey’s shown some life in back-to-back decent performances, but I’ll caution in reading too much into this recent stretch of competency. And that’s because he’s still just 1-5 with a 6.06 ERA in all night contests this year.

The home side counters with Noah Syndergaard (6-2, 2.98) who gave up three runs while striking out four over seven innings in an unfortunate loss to Washington on Wednesday.

Syndergaard returned from injury and looked pretty good. Suffice it to say, i think the hard-throwing right-hander continues his progression in this favorable matchup and in friendly confines (note that he owns a sharp 1.22 WHIP and 87/16 K/W so far this season as well.)

Look for a rested and focused Syndergaard to easily get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Texas Rangers (3:05 EST).

I don’t think that that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Yefry Ramirez (1-4, 4.59 ERA) who gave up six runs off six hits over five innings in a loss to the Yanks on Tuesday. Overall the 24 year old has been decent, but he was clearly in over his head in that particular matchup. 

I’ll point out as well though that while he’s 1-2 with a respectable 3.86 EA at home, he’s a poor 0-2 with a ballooned 6.30 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Martin Perez (2-4, 6.50) who gave up four runs (just one earned) off six hits with two walks while striking out five in a no-decision to the Diamondbacks on Monday. In his previous outing he’d give up one run over six innings with four K’s against the red hot A’s. 

Clearly Perez has been a disaster over his short time this season, but it’s also quite clear that he’s starting to turn the corner with his overall level of play.

And I think the veteran will continue his progression here as he faces the perfect opponent to get untracked against. Lay the price, play on the Rangers.

NOTE: There’s been an over night pitching change for the Rangers. Perez is out and rookie Drew Hutchinson (1-1, 4.64 ERA) is in. The Rangers signed him earlier this week and he went 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA over 42 innings at Triple-A and he’s thrown 23 consecutive scoreless innings. Note that this play is STILL ACTIVE.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Kansas City Royals (2:10 EST).

Danny Duffy started the 2018 campaign horribly, but he’s quietly turned things around over the last month. Suffice it to say, I absolutely believe that the crafty southpaw offers much more than just a “punchers chance” in this particular matchup.

Duffy (7-9, 4.50 ERA) most recently went six scoreless against the White Sox on Tuesday, striking out seven and walking two. Over his last six starts he’s managed to post three scoreless efforts going 3-2 with a very respectable 3.38 ERA in that span.

The home side counters with the volatile Ervin Santana (0-0, 6.10) who most recently gave up four runs off six hits over 5.1 innings in a no-decision to the Indians on Monday. Over 10.1 innings spanning two starts since coming back from injury, Santana has allowed seven earned runs. 

It’s the perfect opponent for Duffy to take advantage of and to continue his considerable momentum against. And I think he’s up for the task. Great value on the hungry dog in this one, play on the Royals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Atlanta Braves (1:10 EST).

While far from perfect this season, I still think that Julio Teheran and the hard-hitting visiting side offer great value in this one.

Teheran (8-7, 4.46 ERA) most recently conceded three runs off four hits with four walks over five innings in a victory over Miami on Monday, also going on to strike out four. 

Admittedly the veteran hasn’t been at his best of late, but I still don’t think there’s any need to panic or over-react.

Especially facing Mets’ starter Corey Oswalt (1-2, 5.27) who has been called up from Triple-A Las Vegas to make this start in place of the injured Steven Matz. 

Oswalt has posted the poor 5.27 ERA over 27.1 big league innings and I think the rookie will struggle against Atlanta’s opportunistic sluggers.

I base my picks on many different things, but for the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I think that Teheran is the correct call. Look for Oswalt to take another step-back on the short-notice. Lay the price, play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (9*) 9:10 EST

A couple of competent hurlers go head-to-head in this one, but I think that Kenta Maeda has the advantage with being able to throw in front of the home town crowd.

The visitors send Lance McCullers (10-6, 4.06 ERA) to the hill and he gave up four runs off six hits while striking out 11 over 5.1 innings in a loss to the Rangers on Sunday. 

McCullers was 1-3 in July and he comes in having lost three straight, giving up 15 runs over 13.2 innings in that span.

The home side counters with Kenta Maeda (7-6, 3.48) who gave up four runs off seven hits and three walks over 4.2 innings in a loss to the Brewers on Monday. 

Over his previous ten starts though Maeda had posted a 2.34 ERA and 0.99 WHIP to go along with an elite 10.8 K/9, so I’m not going to over-react to one poor outing.

McCullers on the other hand has clearly been struggling across the board and I think that trend carries over. All things considered, I do indeed believe that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this matchup. 

The visitors hand the ball to Dylan Bundy (7-9, 4.53 ERA) who gave up three runs off four hits in a win over Tampa Bay on Sunday. I’m going to caution in reading too much into one decent outing though as note that it was his first win since mid June and he also gave up 15 runs over his previous three outings. 

The home side goes with Mike Minor (7-6, 4.73) who gave up two runs off four hits and a walk while striking out eight in a win over the Astros on Sunday. Minor’s been far from perfect this year, but he’s consistently been at his best in front of the home town crowd by going 4-2 with a 3.55 ERA thus far.

Long story short, I’m banking on Bundy taking a predictable step-back here, while Minor looks poised to build off his recent performance. All things considered a very fair price in my opinion. Play on the Rangers.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8*) 7:10 EST

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Anderson (6-3, 3.69 ERA) who gave up three runs off three hits while striking out five over six innings in a no-decision to St. Louis on Monday. Anderson has been decent over the last month, but I still think he’s in over his head here.

The home side counters with Freddy Peralta (4-2, 3.61) who gave up one earned run over four innings in a no-decision to the Dodgers on Monday. Peralta faced the Rockies in his big-league debut back on May 13th and he’d give up one hit while striking out 13 over 5.2 innings. 

I’ll point out as well that Colorado is just 2-7 in its last nine as road dog in the +125 to +150 range, while Milwaukee is 7-3 in its last ten as a home favorite in the -125 to -150 range. 

I like Peralta to take advantage of familiar surroundings and to help his team find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (8*) 7:10 EST

Here’s another one where I think that the home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this matchup on the mound. 

The visitors hand the ball to Kevin Gausman (5-8, 4.43 ERA) who makes his first start for his new team after posting a 1.38 WHIP over 124 innings for Baltimore. Note that Gausman was particularly average on the road by going 0-2 with a 4.78 ERA.

The home side counters with Zack Wheeler (5-6, 4.11) who went six shutout innings in a victory over Pittsburgh on Sunday, allowing five hits, one walk and posting seven K’s. 

Wheeler has now produced back-to-back quality starts, while posting a 10/2 K/W in that span. 

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. 

Recent form displayed by Wheeler suggests that we’re getting awfully good value on the under-valued home side tonight. Play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Boston Red Sox (4:05 EST).

Considering the massive talent discrepancy on the mound, I absolutely believe that this line could in fact be a lot larger.

The visitors hand the ball to Chance Adams, who makes his big league debut in a very difficult stadium. Over 29.1 innings in Triple-A he’s posted a 3.07 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP and a 30/17 K/W.

The home side counters with Nathan Eovaldi (4-4, 3.80) who was brilliant in his debut for the Red Sox on Sunday vs. the Twins, going seven shutout innings, while striking out five. Over 11 appearances this year Eovaldi has a tiny 0.94 WHIP and 58 K’s over 64 innings of work.

Adams has looked pretty good at the Triple-A level, but clearly he faces an extremely difficult task here. Eovaldi on the other hand comes in confident and I think he’ll take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Astros (10:10 EST).

I think Justin Verlander and the defending champs offer great value in this spot. 

Verlander (10-6, 2.24 ERA) comes in off a tough-luck loss against the Rangers on Saturday, allowing two runs off nine hits and a walk over five innings while striking out seven. He’ll be extra motivated here as he’s dropped four of his last five decision.

Verlander has to be feeling confident in this spot though as he’s 8-2 with a minuscule 1.81 ERA on the road thus far. 

The home side counters with Alex Wood (7-5, 3.68) who comes in off a win over Atlanta on Saturday, allowing one hit and four walks over 5.2 scoreless innings of work. Wood looks poised for a letdown here after six straight winning decisions though in my opinion.

Note as well that Houston is 7-2 in its last nine as a road favorite in the -105 to -125 range, while LA is just 10-16 in its last 26 as a home dog in the +100 to +125 range.

I expect Verlander to get back into the winners circle and get the better of his inter-league counterpart. Lay the price, play on the Astros.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Miami Marlins (7:05 EST).

As decent as Vince Velasquez has been of late, I absolutely believe that the under-rated Jose Urena and the hungry visiting side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one.

Urena (3-10, 4.40 ERA) comes in off a gem against Washington on Sunday, going six scoreless, allowing one hit and striking out five in the victory. To go along with his pedestrian ERA, he owns a respectable 1.23 WHIP and 98/34 K/W over 118.2 innings of work.

Velasquez (7-8, 4.02) gave up two runs off six hits with five walks over five innings in a no-decision to the Reds on Saturday. As mentioned off the top Velasquez has been sharp over the last month or so, but despite that I’ll point out that he’s still a terrible 5-5 with a 5.31 ERA at home this season.

For arguments sakes, let’s call these starters a “wash.” In a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the hungry underdog. Play on Miami.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

I think Chris Archer offers great value in his first start for his new team.

The visitors go with John Gant (3-4, 3.49 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits with two walks over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Cubs on Sunday. So far he’s only gone past 5.1 innings twice in eight starts this year.

Archer (3-5, 4.31) will be pitching in six days rest. Over his last eight starts Archer has posted a 2.70 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 50 K’s spanning 43.1 innings of work and there’s no reason not to think that the veteran won’t be able to carry that momentum over here in this pitcher friendly park.

I’ll point out as well that St. Louis is a money-burning 39-39 (-8.2 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Pittsburgh is 43-36 (+7.4 units) against right-handed starters.

I like Archer to get off on the “right foot” for his new team. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the St. Louis Cardinals (1:15 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Antonio Senzatela (4-3, 5.01 ERA) who gave up one earned run off five hits and four walks while striking out six over 5.2 innings in a win over the A’s on Saturday. Senzatela has made four straight starts and over those 24 innings of work he’s conceded 11 runs. 

And oddly enough, note that Senzatela has been much better at home (3-0, 3.00 ERA at hitter friendly Coors Field), compared to just 1-3 with a ballooned 7.08 ERA on the road. 

The home side counters with Miles Mikiolas (11-3, 2.83) who gave up two runs off six hits and one walk with two K’s over six innings in a victory over the Cubs on Saturday. 

Mikolas comes in red hot, having conceded three or fewer runs in seven straight outings. Note that he’s 5-3 with a 2.09 ERA at home as well.

Additionally I’ll point out that the Rockies are just 14-22 in all day games so far this season, while St. Louis is 24-20. 

All things considered, I do indeed think we’re getting great line value on Mikolas and the home side. Play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

I like the home side to build off yesterday’s 5-4 victory as it looks to take advantage of Cole Hamels’ first outing as a member of the Chicago Cubs.

Hamels (5-9, 4.72 ERA) comes in on eight days rest after allowing seven runs off nine hits with two walks over five innings in a loss to Oakland on Monday. Hamels has actually been much better on the road this year than in home confines, but I still think he’s in over his head in his first start for his new team.

The home side counters with Nick Kingham (5-5, 4.80) who comes in off an outing to forget as well against the Mets on Thursday, allowing six earned runs off seven hits with four walks while striking out one over three innings in the eventual setback. 

Kingham though has been much better at home (3-2, 3.91 ERA) than on the road (2-3, 5.54) this season.

I’ll point out as well that Chicago is just 14-16 (-2.7 units) this year in all road games when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Pittsburgh is 7-2 in its last nine at home when the money line falls in the same range.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Reds (1:10 EST).

I lost with the Reds last night, but I think they’ll find a way to bounce back here.

The visitors hand the ball to Sal Romano (6-8, 5.04 ERA) who earned a win over St. Louis on Wednesday, conceding two runs off seven hits and a walk with five K’s over six innings of work. The hard-throwing right-hander would throw 66 of his 99 pitches for strikes and I look for him to carry that momentum over here in this favorable venue.

The home side counters with Mike Fiers (7-6, 3.54) who went 6.1 shutout innings against the Red Sox on Saturday. Fiers has been on top form of late, but his peripherals (6.7 K/9 on the season) point to regression sooner rather than later in my opinion. 

I’ll point out as well that despite yesterday’s loss, the Reds are still 10-4 (+7.4 units) in all inter-league contests this season, while the Tigers are still only 2-9 (-6.2 units) in the same position.

Great spot to pull the trigger on the hungry dog. Play on the Reds.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (9*) 10:10 EST

I had a play on Houston in its 2-0 loss last night, but I think it’ll bounce back here in the second game of this three-game set.

The visitors hand the ball to Charlie Morton (11-2, 2.89 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits and four walks while striking out five over six innings in a no-decision to Colorado on Wednesday. While it wasn’t his best overall effort, he was still in line for the victory when he handed the game over to the bullpen. To go along with his sharp ERA, note that Morton also owns an elite 11.5 K/9. 

The home side counters with Mike Leake (8-6, 4.15) who gave up two runs off four hits over 6.1 innings in a no-decision to San Francisco on Wednesday. Leake has been decent of late, but I’ll point out that he’s still just 3-4 with a pedestrian 4.80 ERA at home this season.

I’ll point out as well that Houston has responded well in this spot for bettors by going 7-2 in its last nine after getting shutout in its previous outing. 

All things considered, I think this line could in fact be a lot larger. Great value, play on the Astros.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cincinnati Reds (8*) 7:10 EST

Neither starter instills much confidence, but I think the Reds can take the opener of this inter-league series. 

The visitors go with Homer Bailey (1-7, 6.29 ERA) who gave up two runs off five hits with two walks and eight K’s over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision to the Cardinals on Tuesday. There’s no sugar-coating an overall disappointing season for Bailey to this point, but clearly this latest effort was a big step in the right direction.

The home side counters with the volatile Matt Boyd (5-9, 4.53) who gave up two runs off seven hits while striking out seven over six innings in a victory over Kansas City on Wednesday. Boyd struggled down the stretch of the first half and he’s looked decent of late, but note that he’s still just 3-6 with a 5.01 ERA in all night games this year.

Note as well that Cincinnati is a sharp 10-3 (+8.4 units) already this season in all inter-league contests, while Detroit is 1-9 (-7.2 units) in the same position. Great value, play on the Reds.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple play is on the Washington Nationals (8*) 7:05 EST

I like the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night in the opener of this National League series.

The visitors hand the ball to Steven Matz (5-8, 3.79 ERA) who earned a win over Pittsburgh on Thursday despite giving up four earned runs off three hits with two walks over six innings. Over his last 17.1 innings of work Matz has now conceded 12 earned runs.

The home side counters with Tanner Roark (4-12, 4.55) who gave up three hits and a walk over eight scoreless in a victory over Milwaukee on Wednesday, also going on to strike out 11. 

Overall Roark has struggled this season, but clearly this was a big step in the right direction. 

Both teams have been a disappointment this year, but I think Roark has the major advantage throwing in friendly confines and I expect him to build off his latest gem. Matz has been poor overall this season as well, especially on the road.

Lay the price, play on the Nationals.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Astros (10:10 EST).

Houston struggled at home against Texas over the weekend, perhaps looking ahead to this matchup in the Pacific Northwest to open the new week. Whatever the reason, I do believe that the defending champs will bounce back in the opener of this interesting American League matchup.

The visitors go with Gerrit Cole (10-2, 2.54 ERA) who gave up two runs off five hits and a walk while striking out nine over seven innings in a no-decision against Colorado on Tuesday. Cole owns an elite 12.4 K/9 and note that he’s been particularly effective on the road by going 6-1 with a 2.56 ERA thus far.

The home side goes with James Paxton (8-4, 3.70) who has been on the DL since before the All Star break. After an unbelievable start to the 2018 campaign, which included a no-hitter in Toronto, Paxton has come back down to Earth of late, posting a ballooned 5.70 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over a six start stretch of futility.

Houston is 35-18 on the road this year, while Seattle is just 23-26 against clubs with winning records. I’m banking on Cole getting the better of Paxton and for Houston to set the tone in this series early. Play on the Astros.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors go with the volatile Wei-Yin Chen (3-7, 5.65 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits over six innings in a victory over Atlanta on Tuesday. Chen has admittedly looked better over the last month, but that’s not saying much after how terrible he started the 2018 campaign. To go along with his poor ERA he also owns an uninspiring 1.49 WHIP and 61/31 K/W.

The home side counters with Julio Teheran (7-7, 4.42) who comes in off an outing to forget throwing opposite Chen Tuesday, giving up nine runs off seven hits over 4.1 innings. He’ll look to get his revenge here though and improve upon his respectable 1.25 WHIP and 101/53 K/W over 110 innings of work this season. Note as well that Teheran is 3-2 with a 3.99 ERA at home this year.

Additionally I’ll point out that the Marlins are just 14-23 (-3.6 units) this season against the division, while ATL is 29-15 (+16.6 units) against divisional foes.

I expect Teheran to get back on track in front of the home town crowd and for the Braves to take the opener of this three-game National League series. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:10 EST

Philadelphia fell 4-0 in Cincinnati yesterday afternoon, while Boston got the better of Minnesota 3-0 at home. I think though that the visitors offer great value here to take the opener of this inter-league series.

The Phillies go with ace Aaron Nola (12-3, 2.42 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits over five innings, walking two and striking out five in a no-decision to the Dodgers on Tuesday. Note that it was just the fourth time over 21 trips to the hill this season that he’s failed to complete the sixth inning. 

To go along with his sharp ERA, Nola also sports an elite 0.99 WHIP and 136 K’s over 134 innings of work this year.

The home side counters with David Price (11-6, 4.17) whose last start was cut short due to rain, throwing only 14 pitches. Price and the Red Sox have been great this year and it’s difficult to say too many negative things about either.

I simply feel that Nola will be able to easily match/better Price inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I firmly believe that the value swings to the hungry dog. 

Everything points to an upset in the opener of this interesting inter-league series. Play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Chicago Cubs (8:05 EST).

The Cubs have dropped the first two games of this series, but I think the visitors will bounce back in the finale.

The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Hendricks (6-9, 4.05 ERA) who took a loss against Arizona despite allowing three runs and posting eight K’s over five innings. Hendricks has the track record and pedigree to return to form and I think he’ll carry over the momentum from his latest performance into this one.

The home side counters with John Gant (3-3, 3.44) who was used in an inning of relief against Cincinnati last week. Gant looked decent in his previous full start, however he struggled in his one inning of work in relief, giving up two runs and issuing two walks.

Chicago is 27-24 on the road, while St. Louis is just 25-25 at home. The Cardinals are also a horrible 29-31 (-9.6 units) in all night games, while the Cubs are 7-2 (+5.2 units) in their last nine night contests. 

I look for the revenge-minded Cubs to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Good luck…Larry

The third pThe third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (9*) 3:10 EST

I had a play on the Rockies in their win last night and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done here as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Frankie Montas (5-2, 3.54 ERA) who was most recently rocked for four runs off five hits over five innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Rangers on Tuesday. While his ERA is respectable, his peripherals over his limited time in the big leagues point to regression (1.41 WHIP and 33:17 K/BB over 53.1 innings.) 

The home side goes with German Marquez (8-8, 5.00) who had his three start win streak snapped in his last appearance on July 21st against the Diamondbacks, giving up six runs off eight hits over five innings. Marquez has been better on the road than at home (not surprising considering it’s Coors Field we’re talking about), but I still think he’ll have more than enough to get the better of his counterpart this afternoon.

The A’s have exceeded expectations overall this season, but the National League format isn’t working out for them this time around. This is a difficult venue and I think the visitors will struggle again. Note as well that Oakland is just 27-30 against teams with winning records this year, while Colorado is 29-20 (+11.5 units) this season against clubs with winning records. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on Colorado.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (8*) 1:35 EST

The Pirates got the better of Mets’ ace Jacob deGrom 5-0 yesterday and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done at the end of the night here as well. 

The visitors go with the volatile Zack Wheeler (4-6, 4.33 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits over seven innings in a victory over the punch-less Padres on Tuesday. 

Wheeler though has been all over the map as far as his game to game consistency is concerned this season and note that he owns a pedestrian 4.65 ERA on the road thus far.

The home side counters with Joe Musgrove (4-4, 3.90) who gave up two runs off five hits with one walk over seven innings in a win over Cleveland on Tuesday. 74 percent of his pitches went for strikes and the veteran would also induce 12 ground ball outs. I look for him to carry that momentum over here.

I’ll point out as well that New York is just 21-25 on the road, while Pittsburgh is 30-25 at home. Home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this matchup. Lay the price, play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals (8*) 1:10 EST

The Nats came up short in yesterday’s 2-1 setback, but I think the visitors will bounce back here.

Washington sends Jeremy Hellickson (4-1, 3.44 ERA) to the hill and he most recently gave up three runs off seven hits over five innings against Milwaukee on Tuesday. To go along with his respectable ERA, note that Hellickson also owns a sharp 1.09 WHIP and 52/13 K/W over 68 innings. 

Note as well that Hellickson has consistently been at his best on the road by going 4-1 with a 2.83 ERA.

The home side counters with Jose Urena (2-10, 4.63) who was most recently rocked for five runs off six hits over four innings in a loss to Atlanta on Monday. Urena has started to regress as the season has worn on, also having given up ten runs over his previous two trips to the mound.

I’ll point out as well that Washington is 42-28 as a road favorite of -125 to -175, while Miami is just 18-31 in its last 49 as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range.

I expect Hellickson to easily out duel the struggling Urena and I look for the Nationals to bounce back after yesterday’s slim setback. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the San Francisco Giants (9:05 EST).

Milwaukee pulled away for a 3-1 win last night, but I think that San Francisco will find a way to get the job done here. 

The visitors hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin (9-3, 3.58 ERA) who gave up one run and struck out nine over five innings in a victory over Washington on Monday. His peripherals (2.05 K/W over 120.2 innings pitched) suggest rockier times could be ahead though.

The home side counters with Johnny Cueto (3-1, 2.76) who gave up four runs off six hits (including three homers) in a no-decision to Oakland on Sunday. 

Cueto’s early season numbers were unreal and unsustainable and he’s predictably come back down to Earth since returning from a short stint on the DL. However, I think he gets back on track here and improves upon his very respectable 2.12 ERA record in all night games this year.

The Giants are only 52-53 overall this year, but they’re 32-22 at home. Back to back losses in front of the home town crowd have been few and far between this season and I don’t expect that to change here. I look for Cueto to bounce back in friendly confines. Play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the San Diego Padres (8:40 EST).

Arizona managed the 6-2 win last night, but I think Tyson Ross and the home side offer great value to bounce back in the underdog role on Saturday.

The visitors hand the ball to Patrick Corbin (7-4, 3.13 ERA) who gave up one run off six hits over seven innings in a victory over the Cubs on Monday. In his final start before the break though he’d post a season-low three K’s. Cobin’s been solid overall and it’s hard to say too many negative things about him, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

Ross (6-8, 4.29) most recently gave up two runs off five hits while striking out five over five innings in a victory over Philadelphia on Sunday. Over his last 11.1 innings of work he’s allowed four earned runs and I’m expecting the veteran to carry that momentum over here.

I think Ross can build off his recent performances and match Corbin inning for inning in this one and in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe the value swings to the revenge-minded underdog. Play on the Padres.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Colorado Rockies (8:10 EST).

Colorado held on for a 3-1 win over the A’s last night and I think it’ll find a way to get the job done in this matchup as well.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Brett Anderson (2-2, 5.46 ERA) who gave up two earned runs off six hits and a walk over six innings in a victory over Texas on Monday. Note though that it was only the second time in six starts that he’s reached the sixth inning. Also note that he’s just 1-1 with a 6.41 ERA in all night games thus far.

The home side counters with Anthony Senzatela (3-3, 5.55) who gave up four earned runs off five hits with six K’s over six innings in a loss to Arizona on Sunday. Over 35.2 innings of work he’s posted a 1.32 WHIP and respectable 26/11 K/W.

It’s hard to say too many negative things about the A’s, as they’ve exceeded expectations with the 61-44 overall record. Note though that they’re just 27-29 this season against clubs with winning records. 

Colorado is 54-47 overall this year, including 14-5 (+11.2 units) in its last 19 against teams with winning records.

I like Senzatela to get the better of Anderson. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (9*) 10:05 EST

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Wade LeBlanc (6-1, 3.44 ERA) who comes in off a gem against the White Sox on Friday, allowing one run off four hits over seven innings. Previous to that though he’d given up four earned runs over consecutive setbacks. LeBlanc has exceeded expectations to this point and it’s hard to say anything negative about him, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. 

The home side counters with the steady Andrew Heaney (6-6, 3.66) who gave up one earned run off four hits over six innings while striking out four and walking two in a victory over Houston on Sunday. To go along with his solid ERA, note that Heaney also sports a sharp 1.15 WHIP and a 106/32 K/W over 108.1 innings of work this season. Note as well that he’s been particularly awesome at home with the 6-2, 2.31 ERA record thus far.

Seattle has surprised a lot of people this year, but I don’t think that LeBlanc will be fooling the home side tonight. I look for Heaney to outlast LeBlanc and I expect the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price, play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Chicago Cubs (8:15 EST).

The Cubs came from behind to knock off the Diamondbacks at home 7-6 yesterday afternoon and I look for Chicago to carry that momentum over here in the opener of this National League series. St. Louis had the night off.

The visitors go with Mike Montgomery (3-3, 3.73 ERA) who gave up one run over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision to these very Cardinals on Saturday. He’d go on to throw 54 of his 87 pitches for strikes and he’ll now look to improve upon his already impressive 2.68 ERA record on the road this season.

The home side counters with Luke Weaver (5-9, 4.79) who returns from the minors to make this start. Weaver closed the first half strong, but he’d stumble in his first start back from the break, giving up three runs over four innings, allowing 12 base runners, along with seven hits and five walks. Note that he’s been particularly poor at home as well this year with the 0-4, 5.32 ERA record. 

These teams are moving in opposite directions right now, as Chicago is 13-7 (+3.8 units) in July, while St. Louis is just 9-12 (-3.4 units) so far this month. I believe those trends continue here and I predict Montgomery will easily get the better of his volatile counterpart. Play on the Cubs.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (8*) 8:10 EST

Toronto isn’t a road favorite a lot anymore. But tonight it is for good reason. Could Marcus Stroman be traded from the Blue Jays? Possibly. Regardless, I do indeed feel that Stroman can carry over his recent momentum and I expect him to easily get the better of his volatile counterpart.

Toronto had the night off last night, while the White Sox were hammered 12-8 at the Angels yesterday afternoon. 

Stroman (3-7, 5.42 ERA) most recently gave up one run off five hits with seven Ki’s over seven innings in a win over Baltimore on Saturday. Stroman has now posted a 16/4 K/W over his last three starts and given up just five earned runs in that span. 

The home side counters with Reynaldo Lopez (4-8, 4.13) who was rocked for five runs off five hits with four walks while striking out only one over five innings in an 8-2 loss to Seattle on Sunday. 

Lopez has struggled of late (1.63 WHIP and 6.03 ERA over his last six trips to the hill) and I think he’s in over his head in this matchup as well.

Toronto’s been better at home than on the road this season, but it’s still 35-30 (+6.3 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Chicago is 29-48 (-9 units) in the same position.

I think Stroman is the correct call here. Lay the price, play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Rays (8*) 7:05 EST

Neither of these starters has “lit the world on fire,” this season but Chris Archer has been better than Andrew Cashner overall and I think he’ll get the better of his volatile counterpart this evening.

Archer (3-4, 4.30 ERA) most recently allowed four runs (just three earned) while striking out 13 over six innings in a no-decision to the Marlins on Sunday. Over 90 innings of work this season Archer owns a respectable 99/29 K/W. Note that he owns a very respectable 3.75 ERA on the road as well.

Cashner (2-9, 4.40) gave up one run off six hits with one walk while striking out two over 5.2 innings in a no-decision to the Jays on Sunday. Cashner’s season numbers are less impressive, with the pedestrian 4.40 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 83/44 K/W over 106.1 innings. Note that he’s 0-5 with a 5.01 ERA at home this season as well.

Neither of these teams have been very kind to bettors this year, but I’ll point out that Tampa is 24-18 (+4. units) against clubs with losing records, while Baltimore is just 13-41 (-21.2 units) this season against teams with winning records.

Archer is the correct call here in my opinion. Play on Tampa.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST).

The Dodgers lost 7-3 at Philadelphia last night, while Atlanta had the night off to prepare for this one.

The visitors hand the ball to Rich Hill (3-4, 4.26 ERA) who gave up one run off five hits over six innings in a victory over the Brewers on Friday. Previous to that though he had been rocked for six runs over 12 innings. Hill had a fantastic 2017, but his numbers are serviceable at best this season (4.26 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 69/24 K/W over 61.1 innings of work.) 

The home side counters with Anibal Sanchez (5-2, 2.76) who gave up three runs off six hits and three walks while striking out eight over six innings in a win over Washington on Friday. 

Sanchez comes into this one on top form, having posted four straight quality starts (note that he owns a sharp 1.99 ERA at home thus far as well.) 

I like Sanchez to out duel the volatile Hill and for the rested Braves to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Atlanta.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

The Mets closed their series at the Padres with a 6-4 win yesterday, but I think they’ll stumble in the opener on the road in this one.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Stephen Matz (4-8, 3.65 ERA) who was crushed by the Yankees on Saturday, allowing five runs off nine hits over five innings in the loss. Matz has been serviceable this year, but this latest effort definitely leaves concerns moving forward in my opinion. 

The home side counters with Nick Kingham (5-4, 4.11) who gave up two runs off four hits with three K’s over seven innings in a victory over Cincinnati on Saturday. Kingham comes into this one on top form, having posted thee straight quality outings to go along with a 2.89 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 17/4 K/W spanning 18.2 innings. 

And note that Kingham has been especially good in front of the home town crowd with the 3-1, 2.90 ERA record thus far.

The Mets are 9-9 in July, but the Pirates are now 14-6 (+10.4 units) this month. I like the home side to carry its momentum over in the opener of this series. Lay the price, play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Kansas City Royals (7:05 EST).

The Royals fell 8-4 at home to the Tigers, but I think they offer fantastic value in this bounce back spot as a massive underdog. The Yanks have the best offense in the league, but Jake Junis looked much better in his first start back from the DL and in the second half and I think he’ll outlast his volatile counterpart tonight.

Junis (5-10, 5.03 ERA) posted quality outings in six of his first seven trips to the hill this season and then he’d injure his back and his season would take a turn for the worse. After going on the DL and coming back from the All Star break though, Junis looked sharp against the Twins last weekend, giving up one run off four hits with six K’s over four innings in a no-decision. 

Junis has had issues this season, but so too has Yanks’ starter Sonny Gray.

Gray (7-7, 5.34 ERA) earned a win over the anemic Mets last weekend, giving up three runs and three walks over 5.1 innings. He may have won back-to-back starts, but clearly his win/loss record could be a lot worse this year if not backed by MLB’s No. 1 offense. 

Note that Gray is a terrible 3-3 with a 7.62 ERA at home this season as well. 

I think Junis can match Gray inning for inning (at least) and in a scenario like that, I think the odds swing in favor of the hungry dog. Play on Kansas City.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oakland A’s (8:05 EST).

Oakland mounted an improbable come from behind 13-10 win over the Rangers last night and I think it’ll find a way to get the job done here as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Edwin Jackson (1-2, 2.93 ERA) who gave up three runs off four hits with six K’s over six innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate loss to the Giants on Friday. The veteran though has been solid overall, having posted a quality effort in four of his five trips to the hill for his new team. Over 30.2 innings he’s posted the 2.93 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP to go along with 23 K’s.

The home side counters with Martin Perez (2-4, 8.05) who gave up five runs off ten hits while striking out four over 5.1 innings in a no-decision to the Indians on Friday. 

Perez for the most part has been a disaster this year, especially at home where he’s gone 1-1 with a ballooned 10.05 ERA.

I’ll point out as well that Oakland is 33-21 (+19 units) on the road this year, while Texas is just 20-31 (-10.8 units) at home. 

Look for Jackson to continue his steady play and for Perez to slide again as the A’s jump all over this dejected Rangers side. Play on Oakland.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Royals (9*) 2:15 EST

I think the Royals will build off yesterday’s 5-4 victory.

The visitors hand the ball to Matt Boyd (4-9, 4.62 ERA) who gave up one run over five innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision to the Red Sox on Tuesday. Boyd stumbled down the stretch of the first half and he comes into this one with the sub-par 1-6, 5.77 ERA record on the road.

The home side counters with Danny Duffy (6-8, 4.40) who gave up one run off five hits while striking out four over seven innings in a win over the Twins on Friday. Duffy has now allowed just one earned run to go along with 21 K’s over his last 20 innings of work. He’s also posted quality efforts in five of his last seven outings. 

I think the oddsmakers are slow in recognizing how well Duffy is throwing right now. Boyd had a decent outing in his first start back from the break, but I think he’ll stumble again here on the road. 

All things considered, a very fair price. Play on Kansas City.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals (8*) 2:10 EST

I had a play on Milwaukee last night and it would come from behind to knock off the Nationals. On Wednesday though I think the visitors will bounce back and find a way to get the job done.

The Nats hand the ball to Tanner Roark (3-12, 4.87 ERA) who gave up four runs with five K’s over five innings in a loss to New York in his last start before the break. Roark’s win/loss record isn’t entirely indicative of how he’s performed this year, as he comes in sporting a 1.40 WHIP and a 98/43 K/W over 114.2 innings of work to this point. Also note that while he’s just 1-6 on the road, he’s posted a very respectable 3.62 ERA away from friendly confines this season.

The home side counters with Freddy Peralta (4-1, 2.65), who has been called up to make this start. Peralta has looked sharp in his limited time in the big leagues, but clearly the rookie draws a tough task this afternoon.

I think Roark gets back on track here with a solid effort after the break, while I believe the rookie Peralta will stumble finally against this revenge-minded and talented Nationals’ line-up. Play on Washington.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (8*) 12:35 EST

Philadelphia battled from behind and won 7-4 yesterday and I think it’ll find a way to get the job done here as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Walker Buehler (4-2, 3.45 ERA) who has been called up to make his first start of the second half. Buehler was decent in Triple-A, but he’s expected to be on a pitch count in this one. 

The home side counters with Jake Arrieta (7-6, 3.47) who gave up five runs off six hits while striking out two over 3.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Padres on Friday. He’d give up four runs in the first and then was never able to catch up after that. Arrieta hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s been solid in all home games with a  3-2, 3.02 ERA record to this point.

I think Arrieta will bounce back at home (or at the very least, outlast his counterpart) and I look for the hungry Phillies to build off yesterday’s victory. Play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8:10 EST).

I don’t normally “flip flop” on a team (take one team one night and then go on the other team the following night), but as i’ve stated many times in the past, clearly MLB is the one sport in which you have to look at each game individually, because of the starting pitchers.

And that’s the case on Tuesday, as I think the Brewers will in fact build off yesterday’s 6-1 victory with another winning effort.

The visitors hand the ball to Jeremy Hellickson (4-1, 3.29 ERA) who put together a phenomenal first half (considering he was 8-11 with a 5.43 ERA a year ago.) I have doubts on whether Hellickson can maintain his first half pace over the second though.

The home side counters with Junior Guerra (6-6, 3.23) who was far from perfect over the first half, but who was solid none-the-less. Note that Guerra was especially good at home with a sharp 2.55 ERA as well. 

The Nationals are now 26-25 (-3.1 units) on the road this year and 49-50 overall. Milwaukee on the other hand is 32-20 (+10.3 units) in all home games and 57-45 overall. 

I think Guerra out-duels Hellickson, who looks poised for a “second half swoon.” Play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST).

The Phillies look to bounce back after yesterday’s slim defeat with their ace on the mound. 

The visitors hand the ball to Kenta Maeda (7-5, 3.12 ERA) who after going 13-6 with a 4.22 ERA last season, has so far looked just as good this year as well. It’s hard to say anything negative about Maeda, so I won’t even bother trying.

I simply feel that he’s completely outclassed in this one.

Philadelphia comes in confident sending Aaron Nola (12-3, 2.30) to the hill. Nola lost 2-0 to Miami in his final first half start, but he’s still thrown five straight quality starts and note that he’s been unbeatable at home to this point, going 8-0 with a tiny 1.71 ERA in friendly confines thus far.

Maeda has been great, but Nola’s dominance at home is the difference maker in this one. All things considered, I do indeed feel that this is a very fair price. Play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST).

I like the Orioles to bounce back here after yesterday’s 5-3 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Drew Pomeranz (1-3, 6.81 ERA), who after a lengthy stay on the DL and a few games in the minors, makes his return to the big leagues tonight. Pomeranz looked good in the minors, but I have a hard time seeing how he can be such a big favorite right out of the gate here, despite the Red Sox’ superior hitting line-up. Note that he’s 0-3 with a 6.46 ERA in all night games this season.

The home side counters with Yefry Ramirez (0-3, 3.09) who closed the first half with a gem against Texas, allowing only two hits with three walks and seven K’s over five scoreless innings of work. 

Ramirez now looks to build off his best start in the majors and improve upon his respectable 3.09 ERA and 24/9 K/W over 23.1 innings of work.

This one has “u-p-s-e-t” written all over it. Play on Baltimore.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Atlanta Braves (12:10 EST).

I think the Braves will build off yesterday’s 12-1 beatdown victory and find a way to get the job done on Tuesday afternoon as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Julio Teheran (7-6, 4.00 ERA) who went 6.1 scoreless in a victory over Arizona in his final first half start. He also had six K’s. He also only needed 79 pitches to get through the outing. Over his last two trips to the mound Teheran has now allowed one run spanning 13 innings of work. Note that he owns a respectable 3.86 ERA on the road thus far as well.

The home side goes with Wei-Yin Chen (2-7, 5.75) who gave up one run off five hits and one walk while striking out eight in a loss to the Phillies in his final start before the All Star game. Previous to this gem though he’d been rocked for seven runs over 4.1 innings. 

Chen’s ERA is horrible and his 1.50 WHIP and 57/28 K/W over 72 innings is nothing to write home about either. 

Additionally I’ll point out that Atlanta is already 21-13 (+11 units) this year in all day games, while Miami is just 14-20 in all day contests.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals (9*) 8:10 EST

Milwaukee was annihilated 11-2 at home by the Dodgers on Sunday and I think it’ll suffer another letdown here as well.

Washington was busy at home with Atlanta over the weekend, but I look for it to get the job done here with veteran Gio Gonzalez on the mound.

Gonzalez (6-6, 3.72 ERA) had his Saturday start postponed due to rain. In his final outing before the break he’d give up two runs with four K’s over six innings in a no-decision to Pittsburgh. He stumbled down the stretch before the break, but I think he’ll rebound here. 

The home side counters with Jhoulys Chacin (8-3, 3.68) who gave up two runs over 5.1 innings in a no-decision to the Pirates in his final first half start. Chacin has been sharp this year, but I think he’ll struggle against the Nationals’ big bats.

Note as well that Milwaukee is just 2-6 in its last eight against left-handed starters, while Washington is 38-31 against right-handed starters this season. 

Lay the price, play on Washington.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cincinnati Reds (8*) 7:10 EST

For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Luis Castillo and the home side.

The visitors hand the ball to Daniel Poncedeleon (0-0, 0.00 ERA) who makes his season debut here. Poncedeleon posted a complete game shutout in Triple-A action most recently, part of a four-game win streak. Clearly the sky is the limit for Poncedeleon, but I still think he’ll have his hands full in this one.

Castillo (5-8, 5.49) looked decent in his final outing before the break, giving up two runs off five hits over five innings in what turned out to be a no-decision against St. Louis on Saturday. 

Castillo has been far from perfect this season, but he’s been at his best at home so far this year with a  3-3, 4.10 ERA record thus far.

No excuses for Castillo in this one, who showed flashes of his 2017 brilliance over the first half, but who for the most part was a disappointment for Cincinnati. 

But here’s the perfect opportunity to get back on track. He’s rested out of the break and he’s facing a rookie in his debut. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (8*) 7:10 EST

Sean Newcomb started the year on fire for the Braves, but the crafty southpaw stumbled before the break. Jose Urena has pitched much better than what his win/loss record would indicate, but I still think he’s in over his head here.

Newcomb (8-5, 3.51 ERA) had his first start back from the break postponed due to rain in Washington over the weekend. In his final start before the break he’d concede three runs over six innings in a loss to Arizona. 

The break though couldn’t have come at a better time for Newcomb, as I predict he comes out refocused with the extra time off. Note that he’s still 5-3 with a 3.79 ERA on the road this season and 6-2 with a 2.48 ERA in all night games.

Urena (2-9, 4.39) was rocked for five runs off four hits with four walks over four innings in a loss to Philadelphia in his final first half start. 

As mentioned off the top, Urena has been better than what his win/loss record would point to, but note that he’s still 0-7 with a 4.26 ERA at home this year.

I like Newcomb to at the very least match Urena and in a scenario like that, I think the hard-hitting Braves have a major advantage. Lay the price, play on Atlanta.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Atlanta Braves (1:35 EST).

The Braves/Nationals was postponed on Saturday due to rain. Atlanta was one of the biggest surprises over the first half of the 2018 MLB season and I think it offers great value as a big underdog in this matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Foltynewicz (7-5, 2.66 ERA) who earned a win over Toronto in his final start before the break, giving up five runs off six hits while striking out six over seven innings. Note that he had a shutout going into the seventh frame. To go along with his elite ERA, Foltynewicz also owns an elite 120/42 K/W over 101.2 frames of work (note as well that he’s 3-1 with a 1.61 ERA in all day games this season.)

The home side counters with ace Max Scherzer (12-5, 2.41), who got the start for the NL in the All Star Game after posting a 2.41 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 182/34 K/W over 134.2 innings of work over the first half. It’s impossible to say anything negative about Scherzer, so I won’t bother.

I simply expect that Foltynewicz, who comes in rested and on top form, will be able to match Scherzer inning for inning.

And in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the undervalued underdog. This one has “u-p-s-e-t” written all over it. Play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Cleveland Indians (3:05 EST).

The Tribe smashed the Rangers 16-3 yesterday and I think another beatdown is in the cards on Sunday afternoon as well.

The visitors hand the ball to the steady Mike Clevinger (7-5, 3.47 ERA) who gave up five runs over six innings in a loss to the Yankees in his final start before the All Star Game. The break couldn’t have come at a better time for Clevinger, who definitely appeared to be running out of steam after an overall successful first half. 

Clevinger though has to be feeling confident here, as he comes in with a 4-2, 2.61 ERA record on the road thus far.

The home side counters with the volatile Yovani Gallardo (3-1, 8.60) who gave up six runs off seven hits over five innings in a loss to the Red Sox in his final start before the break. To go along with his atrocious 8.60 ERA, note that Gallardo also owns a horrible 1.71 WHIP and pedestrian 20/13 K/W over just 30.1 innings of work.

I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is 17-10 (+3.9 units) against left-handed starters this year, while Texas is 28-39 (-6.8 units) against right-handed starters. 

I’m expecting Clevinger to easily out duel his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Indians.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Cincinnati Reds (1:10 EST).

For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Matt Harvey and the home side.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Ivan Nova (5-6, 4.38 ERA) who left after 3.2 innings in a no-decision to the Brewers in his final start before the All Star Game, giving up one run off seven hits. 

Nova’s been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned, but one thing which is definitely certain is that he’s been much better at home (2.92 ERA), than on the road (5.94).

Harvey (5-5, 4.63 ERA) entered the All Star Game off four straight victories, giving up one run over five innings while striking out five in a victory over St. Louis in the final one. Harvey has quietly been dominating of late, giving up two earned runs or fewer over five straight trips to the hill. 

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Nova’s inconstancies are poised to rear their ugly head again here. Harvey on the other hand is enjoying a resurgence of sorts and I don’t think there’s any reason not to believe that he won’t be able to carry that momentum over here, especially with a little extra time off to rest. Great price, play on the Reds.

Good luck…Larry