The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (10:05 EST).

Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Daniel Gossett (0-1, 9.00 ERA), who was rocked for four runs off six hits and two walks over four innings in a loss to these very Angels on Sunday. Gossett posted a horrible 6.11 ERA and 1.61 WHIP with Oakland last year and note that he was particularly poor on the road, going just 3-7 with a ballooned 6.14 ERA.

The home side counters with Parker Bridwell, who will make his first start of the year, after going 10-3 with a 3.64 ERA last season. Note that Bridwell was particularly effective in this spot last year, going 6-2 with a 3.67 ERA in all “night” contests.

The Angels are mashing the ball early, which doesn’t bode well for Gossett. I think Bridwell will easily out duel his volatile counterpart and all things considered, I do indeed feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on LA.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (4:10 EST).

The visitors turn to Brandon McCarthy (1-0, 3.38 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits and three walks over 5.1 innings while also striking out five in what turned out to be a 15-2 win over Philadelphia on Saturday. 

The veteran right-hander was 6-4 with a respectable 3.84 ERA last year, but if he had one clear weakness it was his performance in all road games, posting a pedestrian 4.67 ERA.

The home side counters with German Marquez (0-0, 0.00) who gave up one unearned run off four hits with four walks while striking out four over five innings in a no-decision against the Diamondbacks on Saturday. 

Marquez was 11-7 with a 4.39 ERA overall last year, including 4-2 with a 3.41 ERA in all “day” games and 6-3 with a 4.59 ERA at home (which is significant at Coors.) 

I think Marquez will outlast his counterpart today and that’s going to make all the difference once it’s all said and done. Lay the price, play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Mariners (4:10 EST).

The visitors hand the ball to James Paxton (0-1, 11.57 ERA), who gave up six earned runs over 4.2 innings in a loss to the Indians on Saturday, also striking out four. Paxton put together a career best campaign in 2017 and he had a decent spring showing, but clearly he was completely out of sorts in that one.

Note that Paxton was 5-2 with a 3.66 ERA on the road last year and 4-1 with a 1.49 ERA in all “day” games.

The home side counters with Kyle Gibson (1-0, 0.00), who went six scoreless against the Orioles on Saturday, striking out six, but also walking five. Gibson had a decent spring as well, but I’ll point out that he was just 6-7 with a 5.72 ERA at home last year and just 3-7 with a 6.51 ERA in all day contests.

For the most MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I think that Paxton has the advantage. The moral of the story here is to not over-react to one decent start, or to one poor one. 

Great value, play on the flame-thrower Paxton to bounce-back and the Seattle Mariners.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chicago White Sox (4:10 EST).

Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the home side. 

The visitors hand the ball to confirmed “gas can” Jordan Zimmermann (0-0, 6.00 ERA), who was shelled for four earned runs off six hits while striking out eight in a fortunate no-decision against the Pirates on Friday. 

Zimmermann was a big disappointment last year and he was particularly poor in this spot by going just 3-6 with a 5.53 ERA on the road. 

The home side counters with James Shields (1-0, 6.00), who gave up four runs off five hits and one walk over six innings in a fortunate victory over the Royals on Thursday. 

Zimmermann’s struggles have been greater than Shields have been, especially on the road. I’m giving Shields the slight nod in this matchup and that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the home side here in my opinion. 

Great price, play on the White Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Washington Nationals (1:05 EST).

The Nationals come in off a 7-1 loss at Atlanta yesterday afternoon, but I think they’ll bounce back in fine fashion in front of the home town crowd here.

The visitors were also in action against Philadelphia on Wednesday afternoon and they hand the ball to Jacob DeGrom (1-0, 1.59 ERA), who gave up one earned run off four hits and a walk over 5.2 innings in a season opening win over the Cards on Saturday.

It’s hard to say too many negative things about DeGrom, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time this afternoon.

Washington counters with Stephen Strasburg (1-0, 1.42) who posted a dominant win in his debut as well, giving up three runs and striking out seven over 6.1 innings over the Reds. Note that Strasburg was 7-3 with a 2.06 ERA in all “day” games last year.

I’ll point out that the Nationals are 6-1 (+4.1 units) in their last seven after scoring one run or less in their previous outing, while the Mets are only 1-4 (-3.2 units) in their last five as a road dog in the -125 to -175 range.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Nationals.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oakland A’s (10:05 EST).

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Doug Fister (1-0, 1.80 ERA), who was 5-9 with a 4.88 ERA last year for Boston, but who picked up a win in his Rangers debut, giving up one earned run off four hits over five innings while striking out three in the eventual 5-1 victory over Houston on Friday.

Note that Fister was just 2-2 with a 4.79 ERA on the road last year and only 4-5 with a 5.06 ERA in all “night” games.

The home side counters with Sean Manaea (0-0, 1.17), who gave up one run while striking out seven over 7.2 innings in an unfortunate setback to the Angels on Friday.

It’s hard to trust Manaea completely, but he had a strong spring and his debut was also solid. Note that he was 6-3 with a 4.01 ERA at home last year. 

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and despite his decent performance in his Opener, Fister has been consistently inconsistent throughout his career and I think that trend carries over here. 

Manaea was a hard-luck loser in his Opener, but I look for the hard-throwing southpaw to out duel his counterpart today and punch one into the win column.

Lay the price, play on the A’s.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (6:05 EST).

The visitors hand the ball to Jake Odorizzi, who went six scoreless in a no-decision against the Orioles on Thursday, giving up two hits and two walks in the eventual no-decision. It was a decent debut for Odorizzi’s new team.

The home side counters with ace Ivan Nova (0-0, 3.60), who gave up two runs off six hits and three walks, while striking out four over five innings in a no-decision against Detroit on Friday. 

A little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered for Nova though, who was 8-2 with a 2.80 ERA at PNC Park in 2017. 

I’ll point out as well that Minnesota is just 77-106 (-19.5 units) in its last 183 following a loss, while Pittsburgh is 83-71 (+11.4 units) in its last 154 following a victory.

I’m banking on home field playing a major factor in the outcome of this one. Play on Pittsburgh.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the New York Mets (1:10 EST).

The visitors hand the ball to Aaron Nola (0-0, 1.69 ERA) who gave up one earned run off five hits while striking out three over 5.1 innings against the Braves on Thursday. Nola was lifted early from that one which had many scratching their heads, leaving some to believe that first year manager Gabe Kapler is likely putting a cap on Nola’s pitch count this year.

The home side counters with Noah Syndergaard (1-0, 6.00), who earned a win in his season debut against the Cards despite giving up four runs off six hits over six innings of work, also going on to strike out ten. Note that Syndergaard was particularly effective at home last year as well by posting a 1.71 ERA.

Nola wasn’t really tested in his opener, but I think he will be here. Syndergaard survived against the hard-hitting Cardinals, but faces a much weaker offense this time around.

All things considered, I think his price could in fact be a lot larger. Great price, play on Syndergaard and the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Baltimore Orioles (8:10 EST).

Clearly Justin Verlander is a better pitcher than Dylan Bundy. Verlander rejuvenated his career with the championship run with the Astros last year, but despite all of that I think he’s vastly over-priced in this matchup.

Bundy was 13-9 with a 4.24 ERA last season and he had a dominant Opening Day, going seven scoreless while striking out seven in an unfortunate no-decision against the Twins.

Verlander went six scoreless in his opening day win over Texas, allowing four hits and two walks to go along with five K’s. 

Again this particular selection comes down to overall “value” though. Bundy comes in on top form and I believe he can easily match Verlander inning for inning. And in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the “value” swings to the undervalued underdog. 

Play on Baltimore.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Milwaukee Brewers (7:40 EST).

The Cards hammered the Brewers 8-4 yesterday, but I think that the home side bounces back on Tuesday night.

The visitors hand the ball to Joe Flaherty, who was 0-2 with a 6.33 ERA in the Cardinals last year. Flaherty then followed up that sub-par effort with a pedestrian spring, posting a 4.60 ERA over 15.2 innings of work to go along with four home runs conceded.

The Brewers counter with Chase Anderson, who was 12-4 with a 2.74 ERA last season and who finished a strong spring stanza with a decent finish, giving up no runs off one hit while striking out six  over six innings in an eventual victory over the Padres. Note that Anderson was particularly effective in this position last year, going 6-1 with a 2.55 ERA in all “night” games and 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA at home. 

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I absolutely believe that Anderson offers great value in this matchup.

Lay the price, play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (10:10 EST).

Ultimately I believe this is a much bigger talent discrepancy on the mound than what this line is suggesting.

Chad Bettis was just 2-4 with a 5.05 ERA in 2017 and he finished the Cactus League with a 4.50 ERA over 18 innings pitched. Note that Bettis was extremely effective in this spot in his last full season, going 5-3 with a 3.57 ERA in all night contests.

The Padres counters with Bryan Mitchell, who was 1-1 with a 5.79 ERA for the Yanks last season. Mitchell was decent in Triple-A last year, but his big league numbers were awful (note that he had a 7.43 ERA in home games.) 

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I’m giving Bettis the clear nod. All things considered, I do indeed feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” 

Play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (10:05 EST).

Cleveland comes in off a 5-4 loss in Seattle, while the Angels enter off the highly satisfying 7-4 win at Oakland last night.

The Tribe hand the ball to Mike Clevinger, who was 12-6 with a 3.11 ERA last season. Clevinger comes in off a strong spring and note that he was particularly effective in these spots last year by going 7-3 with a 2.45 ERA in all road contests.

The home side counters with JC Ramirez, who was 11-10 with a 4.15 ERA last season. Ramirez sported a pedestrian 6.4 K/9 last year and note that he was just 3-6 with a ballooned 4.80 ERA in all home contests.

Let’s call these potent line-ups a “wash” for arguments sake and instead focus in on the starters. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I’m giving the big nod to Clevinger, who I believe is poised for another break-out campaign.

Lay this very fair price, play on the Indians.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (8:30 ET).

You pretty much know what you’re going to get out of Tanner Roark each year, but Sean Newcomb looks ready for a break out campaign. 

Newcomb was 4-9 with a 4.32 ERA last season, but the big southpaw comes in off a red hot spring in which he posted a 15/5 K/W over 15.1 innings of work. 

Roark was 13-11 with a 4.67 ERA last season and he struggled in the spring, getting rocked for 12 earned runs over his final two outings spanning 12 innings of work. 

Washington comes in off the satisfying 6-5 win at Cincinnati last night and I think it’ll stumble here against the rested home side. 

I’m banking on Newcomb’s dominant spring carrying over and I believe Roark’s inconsistencies continue as well.

Great value, play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

This is an 8* Daytime Dominator on the Chicago Cubs (4:10 EST)).

Tyler Chatwood was 8-15 with a 4.69 ERA in 2017 for the Colorado Rockies. Chatwood posted an excellent spring and I think he’s going to carry that momentum over here for his new team.

Note that Chatwood was at his best on the road last year (not surprising obviously), by posting a very respectable 3.49 ERA. Also note that he was 4-3 with a 3.04 ERA in all “day” games.

The home side counters with Tyler Mahle, who was 1-2 with a 2.70 ERA last year. Mahle earned his way into the Reds’ weak rotation because of a strong Cactus League showing, but note that he was blasted in his final tune-up, getting rocked for six run off ten hits over four innings against the Rangers in Texas.

Off the 6-0 defeat yesterday, I expect the the Cubs to come in razor focused here. The Reds enter off a loss to the Nationals and I think they’re ripe for the picking.

All things considered, I do indeed feel this is a fantastic price. Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the LA Angels (4:05 EST).

This is Shohei Ohtani’s first start ever as a pitcher in the majors. Ohtani had mixed results this spring as a pitcher, getting rocked for 15 runs over 8.1 total frames, but posting an elite 19:3 K:BB during that span.

The home side will counters with Daniel Gossett. Andrew Triggs was originally supposed to get the start here, but the A’s flipped the order, with Triggs now going on Monday against Texas. 

Gossett was a confirmed “gas can” last year, finishing with a sub-par 6.11 ERA in 18 starts for Oakland. Gossett is expected to be bounced from the rotation once Paul Blackburn returns.

The pressure is on Ohtani, but he fortunately faces a very winnable scenario here. I think the visitors give their rookie some support, play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Houston Astros (3:05 EST).

The defending champs hand the ball to Gerrit Cole on Sunday afternoon. Cole was 12-12 with a 4.26 ERA with Pittsburgh last year. He stumbled in his final spring start, but in his four previous tune-ups he posted a 1.42 ERA with 15 K’s spanning 12.2 innings of work.

This is Mike Minor’s first start since 2014 and he’s only thrown a total of 120 innings since 2015 after undergoing shoulder surgery. 

Minor was 6-6 with a 2.25 ERA as a reliever last year, but clearly this is a big step up for the eight year pro. 

Cole’s spring performance was encouraging and I believe he’ll have more than enough the tank in his first start of the season to easily get the better of his untested counterpart. Lay the price, play on Houston.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Toronto Blue Jays (1:05 EST).

I think we’re getting great value on Marcus Stroman and the home side in this matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Sonny Gray, who was 10-13 with a 3.55 ERA in 2017. Gray for the most part bounced back from a terrible 2016, but I still think he’ll have his hands full here in this hostile environment and facing Toronto’s young ace.

The home side counters with Marcus Stroman, who was 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA last year. Stroman was tabbed as the Opening Day starter originally, but it was pushed back out of concern for a nagging shoulder issue.

Note that Stroman was particularly effective at home last year by posting a tiny 2.63 ERA.

Gray bounced back last year, but I’m unconvinced that he’s turned the corner until I can see him throw a few times this season. Stroman on the other hand has gotten better each campaign and there’s no reason not to think he’ll be able to carry that progression over here.

All things considered, I do indeed feel this is the very definition of great line value.

Play on the Blue Jays.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST).

Neither of these staters instills much confidence, but I believe that Andrew Cashner is absolutely the correct call in this matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Kirk Gibson, who finished 12-10 with a 5.07 ERA last year. Gibson had a decent spring, finishing with a 1.80 ERA and while he did close 2017 strong, I still think he’s going to struggle to match pace with his counterpart tonight.

The home side goes with Andrew Cashner, who was 11-11 with a 3.40 ERA, to go along with a 1.32 WHIP and 86/64 K/W ratio over 166.2 innings last season. 

Note that Cashner was particularly effective in all home games last year by posting a 2.72 ERA.

For arguments sake, let’s call these line-ups a “wash.” I believe Cashner has the advantage of throwing at home here and all things considered, I do indeed feel this is a very fair price. 

Play on Baltimore.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (4:10 EST).

A couple of elite hurlers go head-to-head on Saturday afternoon in the Pacific Northwest, but for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the visitors.

Carlos Carrasco was 18-6 with a 3.29 ERA last year. Carrasco looked sharp in his limited spring action and while he did take a come-backer off his foot in his final outing, he’s been given the green light to go here. 

Note that the hard-throwing right-hander was particularly effective in this spot last year by going 7-3 with a 2.87 ERA in all “day” games and a “lights out” 11-2 with a 2.65 ERA on the road.

Jamex Paxton was 12-5 with a 2.98 ERA last year. Paxton gave up three runs off six hits and a walk over five innings in his final spring tune-up against the Friars on Sunday. 

I think Carrasco’s road dominance carries over here and I think Paxton takes a step back this season. I’m giving the slight nod to Carrasco on the mound and a big nod to the Tribe at the plate and that definitely makes the visitors the correct call in my mind.

Great price, play on the Indians.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (4:05 EST).

I think Marco Estrada offers great value in this matchup. 

The Yanks hand the ball to CC Sabathia, who posted a 3.69 ERA and 1.27 WHIP last year (his best marks since 2012), however that came at the expense of his strikeout rate, which fell to 7.3 K/9. 

I think last season was an anomaly for the 37 year old and I believe regression will be immediate. 

Estrada finished 2017 well, after a horrible start. In the end he was 10-9 with a 4.98 ERA. Still. his 1.38 WHIP was near elite, to go along with a decent 176/71 K/W over 186 frames of work. 

Note that he was 6-3 with a 4.34 ERA at home last season.

Toronto is dealing with injuries in its line-up, but for the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I think Estrada is the correct call.

Play on the Blue Jays.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST).

Tyler Anderson was 5-6 with a 3.54 ERA in 2016, but then he’d take a step back in 2017 with a 6-6, 4.81 ERA. 

Anderson has dealt with various injuries over the last three years, which has hampered his progression. It’s definitely important to note though that Anderson had a 4.14 ERA and 0.87 HR/9 at hitter friendly Coors Field, compared to a 5.44 ERA and 2.4 HR/9 on the road. 

The home side counters with co-ace Robbie Ray, who was 8-15 with a 4.90 ERA in 2016 and then who was 15-5 with a 2.89 ERA in 2017. Ray appeared in five games this spring and gave up ten runs.

Note that Ray was particularly effective in this spot last year by going 12-4 with a 2.52 ERA in all “night” contests.

Ray may not be able to post the same type as numbers as he did last season, but I think he’ll easily out duel his inconsistent counterpart tonight. And that makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying, play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST).

The Braves roared back for an 8-5 win in yesterday’s season opener against the Phillies and I think the team will carry that momentum over here into this favorable matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Nick Pivetta, who was an unremarkable 8-10 with a 6.02 ERA last year. Pivetta gave up at least one walk and one homer in all four of his spring starts to finish with a poor 5.40 ERA. Note that he was particularly bad on the road last season as well by going 4-7 with a 6.65 ERA. 

The home side counters with Mike Foltynewicz, who was 9-5 with a 4.31 ERA in 2016 and who was then 10-13 with a 4.79 ERA last year. 

Foltynewicz posted  career high 8.4 K/9 last season, while his 1.2 HR/9 was a career low. 

Note that he’d also go on to post a highly respectable 3.95 ERA in all home games last year.

Neither of these staters instils much confidence, but I’m giving Foltynewicz the clear nod in this matchup and all things considered, I do indeed feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” 

Play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Tampa Bay Rays (7:10 EST).

The Rays came back in extra innings yesterday for the 6-4 win (I had TB in that one as a sizeable dog) and I expect the team to carry that momentum over here.

The visitors hand the ball to David Price who was 17-9 with a 3.99 ERA in 2016 and who was then injured for most of 2017, finishing with a 6-3, 3.38 ERA. Price gave up two runs off three hits and a walk over five innings in his final spring tune-up. 

The home side counters with Blake Snell, who was 6-8 with a 3.54 ERA in 2016 and who finished 5-7 with a 4.04 ERA last year. Note though that Snell finished the season on fire by going 5-1 with a 2.84 ERA over his final ten starts. 

Snell then carried that momentum over into a solid spring where he posted a 3.12 ERA over five starts. 

"Last year to this year is completely different," Snell remarked recently. "Just mindset wise. And where I stand right now, it's way different. I think everyone can tell. Just focus. Ready to go. Been waiting for this season a long time, so definitely excited that it's here now."

I think Snell can easily match Price inning for inning and in a scenario like that, there’s no question that the value swings to the dog. Play on Tampa Bay.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Opening Day LEGEND is on the Cleveland Indians (10:10 EST).

I think Corey Kluber and the hard-hitting Indians are well worth the price of admission in this spot.

Kluber was 18-9 with a 3.14 ERA in 2016 and 18-4 with a 2.25 ERA in 2017. He posted a 265/36 K/W over 203.2 innings to go along with a 0.87 WHIP to win the AL Cy Young Award last season. 

Note that Kluber was dominant in his spring time, posting 15 K’s over 8.2 innings spanning three starts. 

The home side counters with Felix Hernandez who was 11-8 with a 3.82 ERA in 2016 and then who was 6-5 with a 4.36 ERA in 2017. 

Hernandez comes in off a decent spring finale, allowing an earned run off four hits and a walk over 3.2 innings while striking out three, but I think he’s in way over his head here.

This isn’t 2013. “The King” is on the decline and he’s facing one of the World’s best right now. Kluber is already locked in on top form and the Indians have something to prove this year. 

Everything points to a blowout, lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 9* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Royals (4:15 EST).

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile James Shields, who was a terrible 6-19 with a 5.85 ERA in 2016 and then 5-7 with a 5.23 ERA in 2017. 

Note that one day after being dubbed the Opening Day starter, Shields would allow seven runs off eight hits and two walks over 3.2 innings in an eventual loss to the A’s. 

The home side counters with ace Danny Duffy, who was 12-3 with a 3.51 ERA in 2016 and who was then 9-10 with a 3.81 ERA last season.

Duffy had a decent spring and he’s been given the green light here after dealing with a minor shoulder issue in his final spring start. Note that Duffy posted a 3.48 ERA at home last season.

The Royals were pathetic offensively last year, but this is a matchup which should provide some Opening Night fireworks for the fans. I don’t normally lay chalk of this size, but I believe Duffy is well worth the price of admission in this matchup. 

Play on the Royals.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Rays (4:00 EST).

I think it’s a great spot to pull the trigger on the home dog on Opening Day. It’s hard to say anything negative about Chris Sale obviously, but Chris Archer shook off a poor 2016 to post a decent 2017 and I think he’ll be able to match his counterpart inning for inning tonight. 

And in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the dog.

Sale was 17-10 with a 3.34 ERA with the White Sox in 2016 and then 17-8 with 2.90 ERA for the Red Sox in 2017. 

Sale’s good to go in 2018, however I think it’s worthy to note that the southpaw was forced to throw a bullpen session on Monday after taking a come-backer off the hip in his final outing of Spring training. 

Archer is dealing with a similar issue, throwing a bullpen session on Monday after aggravating his shoulder. 

Archer though has also been given the green light on Opening Day and as I mentioned off the top, i think he’s going to be able to match pace with Sale against a Red Sox line-up which will have to endure some growing pains and chemistry.

It’s the perfect set of situational circumstances working in favor of the home side on Opening Day. Play on the Rays.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (3:35 EST).

Luis Severino was 3-8 with a 5.83 ERA in 2016, but he’d have a break out campaign in 2017 by going 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA. 

Severino had a decent Spring and he’s always fared well North of the border by posting a 3.60 ERA in 20 career innings in Toronto.

The home side counters with the erratic JA Happ, who was 20-4 with a 3.18 ERA in 2016, before then going 10-11 with a 3.53 ERA in 2017.

Happ was decent in Spring as well and his numbers should stay pretty consistent this season.

Severino though looked particularly good at time this Spring and he’s now backed by the most feared line-up in the Majors.

I give a slight nod to Severino on the mound and a big nod to the Yanks re-worked line-up and that absolutely makes “The Evil Empire” well worth the price of admission in this spot in my opinion. 

Great value, play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 6* Daytime Dominator on the New York Mets (1:10 EST).

While he was injured for the majority of last year, I think that Noah Syndergaard offers great value on Opening Day.

Syndergaard was 14-9 with a 2.60 ERA in 2016 and then just 1-2 with a 2.97 ERA in 2017. Syndergaard comes into his first start of the year off a great final spring tune-up, giving up one run off eight hits over seven innings while striking out five. In all “Thor” would post a 23/6 K/W over 20 spring innings of work. 

The visitors counter with Carlos Martinez who was 16-9 with a 3.04 ERA in 2016 and 12-11 with a 3.64 ERA in 2017. Martinez also looked pretty good in his final spring start, giving up one run over four innings against the Marlins. 

Martinez was just 6-8 with a 4.02 ERA on the road last year though and I think he’ll have a hard time matching pace with Syndergaard at home.

As mentioned off the top, all things considered I do indeed feel this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Dodgers (8:15 EST).

Tonight will be the first Game 7 between two 100-win clubs since the St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Philadelphia Athletics in 1931. The LA Dodgers are looking to secure their seventh World Series title all time, while the Astros are hoping to earn their first in franchise history (Houston's only other World Series appearance occurred in 2005 when it was swept by the Chicago White Sox).

The visitors turn to Lance McCullers Jr, who got the start in Game 3, giving up three runs off four hits over 5.1 innings in the victory. So far McCullers has conceded just six runs over 18.1 innings of work in the playoffs, resulting in a 1.04 WHIP and a 2.95 ERA. 

Houston was 0 for 6 with runners in scoring position in Game 6 and note that it’s now 2-6 in eight playoff road contests.

LA counters with Yu Darvish, who was shaky in Game 3 of the World Series, giving up four runs off six hits and lasting just 1.2 innings. Over 13 innings of playoff work the Japanese hurler has given up six runs, which equates to a 4.15 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Darvish has experience facing the Astros while with the Rangers, going 14-14 with a 3.44 ERA lifetime against them.

Keep your eyes on LA slugger Chris Taylor, who had a RBI double in Game 6 and who has posted four hits with two RBI’s in the last three games. 

Home teams are 27-10 (.730) in the 2017 postseason, with the Astros going 8-1 at Minute Maid Park and the Dodgers going 6-1 at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers moved to LA back in 1958 and have won five World Series titles, in 1959, 1963, 1965, 1981 and 1988. However, the only time the Dodgers have actually clinched a World Series title in Los Angeles or Dodger Stadium was 1963. Make that TWO times, after tonight. Play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* World Series GAME OF THE YEAR is on the LA Dodgers (8:15 EST).

I had a play on the “under” in Game 1, then took the Astros in Game’s 2 and 3, before then taking the Dodgers in Game 4 and then once again back on the Astros (run-line) in Game 5. 

Justin Verlander is a big reason why the Astros are where they are right now, but with their backs against the wall, I expect the Dodgers to respond in a big way tonight and to push this awesome World Series to a pivotal Game 7. 

As mentioned off the top, Verlander is pitching out of his mind right now, posting a 2.05 ERA and 1.04 WHIP to go along with a 4-0 record over 30.2 innings of playoff work. 

LA is countering with Rich Hill, who has given up a total of four runs over his three playoff starts, resulting in a 2.77 ERA (note that Hill has done well against the Astros throughout his career as well, going 3-1 with a 2.68 ERA spanning 40.1 frames of work.) 

A little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered for the Dodgers though, who are 5-1 in the playoffs at Chavez Ravine thus far. 

Verlander has been exceptional, but I think the pressure finally gets to the veteran tonight. Hill has been solid at home all year and I think he offers tremendous value in this elmination spot.

Play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STROM is on the LA Dodgers (8:15 EST).

I had a play on the “under” in Game 1 and then had the Astros in both Games 2 and 3.

Game 2 was a big mental blow for the Dodgers and the Astros were able to carry over that momentum and ride the wave of emotion in front of the home town crowd in Game 3.

However, with their backs against the wall, I think the hard-hitting Dodgers are going to respond here.

Alex Wood might not have pitched in ten days, but I don’t think that’s going to matter once this one gets underway. 

Wood struggled in Game 4 of the NLDS, giving up three runs over 4.2 innings. Wood though put together his finest regular season campaign ever by going 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over 152.1 innings of work. 

Note that Wood was particularly sharp on the road this year as well, going 7-1 with a 2.24 ERA. The Dodgers’ have struggled with offensive consistency over the last two games, but I think the line-up catches a break today in facing the 32 year old Charlie Morton (note that LA is still 3-2 on the road in the playoffs thus far.) 

Morton went five scoreless in the Game 7 win over the Yankees in the ALCS. Note though that he was blasted for seven runs in Game 1 against New York. 

In fact, Morton has given up a total of nine runs over 13 innings during the postseason and owns a horrible 6.23 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Also note that Morton has struggled mightily against the Dodgers throughout his career, giving up 11 runs over 11 innings against them. 

All good things must come to an end. The Astros 7-0 home record is obviously very impressive, but MLB handicapping for the most part comes down to starting pitching. His last outing aside, Morton has been shaky at best this year. While Wood wasn’t at his absolute best in his last start, he’s still been one of the most consistent in the entire league all year. With their backs against the wall and facing a possible 1-3 deficit, I think the value is on the visitors tonight.

Play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Astros (8:05 EST).

I had a play on the under in Game 1 and then played the Astros in Game 2. It was a wild affair in Game 2 and it obviously could have gone either way.

However, I think the momentum is now firmly on the Astros’ side after that big victory and as the series shifts to Houston.

The Dodgers turn to Yu Darvish (10-12, 3.86 ERA) who has so far been lights out in the playoffs, going 2-0 with a 14/1 K/W ratio, while giving up just two runs. I think it should be noted though that while Darvish performed well on the road this year, he was just 8-8 with a pedestrian 4.00 ERA in all “night” games this season.

The home side counters with Lance McCullers (7-4, 4.25) who also comes in off a strong LCS performance, giving up just one earned run while striking out nine over ten innings against the hard-hitting Yankees. 

Note that McCullers was 4-0 with a 3.04 ERA at home and was 4-2 with a 3.62 ERA in all “night” contests this year.

At times I think “momentum” can be a very real, almost “tangible” factor (in every sport and especially in the postseason) and it’s one which I’ve always felt that the books have a hard time properly quantifying into a line. And that’s the case here.

I like McCullers to match Darvish inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the home side. Play on the Astros.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Astros (8:05 EST).

I had a play on the under in Game 1, but I think the value today is on Justin Verlander and the hungry Astros.

Verlander is simply “on fire” right now, coming into the World Series on top form, posting a tiny 1.46 ERA and a almost non-existent 0.93 WHIP to go along with a perfect 4-0 record spanning 24.2 innings of work. 

Verlander has been decent against the Dodgers in his career, giving up six runs over 14 innings to go along with a perfect 2-0 record. 

The home side counters with Rich Hill, who gave up one run over five innings against the Cubs in the NLCS. Hill has had success against the Astros with a 3-1, 2.68 ERA lifetime record, but note that he’s a pedestrian 1-2 with a 4.01 ERA in 25 career playoff frames. 

But the numbers support Verlander and Houston today, as note that Houston is 4-0 in Verlander’s last four starts on four days rest, while LA is just 1-3 (-1.4 units) in its last four after holding an opponent to one run or less in its previous contest.

Kershaw was a difficult challenge, but Hill is not of the same calibre. Houston hit seven home runs against southpaws in the ALDS and ALCS, cmpared to five against right-handed. 

I’m banking on Verlander to continue his amazing form and I look for the Astros to find a way to get the job done in Game 2.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM in on the Houston Astros (8:00 EST).

Neither the Astros nor the Yankees hit much in the first two games of this ALCS series but after back-to-back 2-1 games, the teams returned to New York with the favored Astros up 2-0. However, the Astros' stay in the Bronx was not a pleasant one, as the Yankees stormed to three consecutive wins, 8-1, 6-4 and 5-0. Houston was only competitive in Game 4, grabbing a 4-0 lead heading to the bottom of the 7th but then the team's bullpen imploded.

This series returns to Houston with the Yankees up 3-2 and the Astros one loss away from elimination. The Astros led the majors in scoring with 896 runs during the regular season, (5.53 per), plus led in team batting (.282) and OPS (.823). However, Houston has scored just nine runs through five games (1.80 per), while batting .147 with an OPS of .823. However, as the saying has gone for many a years in MLB, "momentum is never further away than the next game's starting pitcher." 

Houston can't be concerned about if the team has a pitcher good enough to stand up to the pressure of a Game 7 (Astros likey do not), Houston just needs to "get to a Game 7 and who better to have on the mound than Justin Verlander? The former AL Cy Young and MVP winner was 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA, 0.65 WHIP and a 43-5 KW ratio in five regular  season starts for Houston. He's also made three appearances in the postseason (two starts), going 3-0 with a 2.04 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and a 16-5 KW ratio. Enough said?

Not exactly, as Houston will have to break out of its slump, as well. Luis Severino was New York's best starter this year but he has not had his "A-game" this postseason. He was able to get just one out in the wild card game vs the Twins and in Game 2 of this series, was lifted following the fourth inning, when he struggled to get loose and was hit in the wrist by a comebacker. Yes, he was checked out by doctors and quickly cleared. In between those two "mini" starts, he did have a solid effort in Game 4 of the ALDS, yielding three runs on  four hits in seven innings in the Yankees' 7-3 win against Cleveland. However, Severino can't expect to get much run support against Verlander, so the pressure will be squarely on the 23-year-old.

Can the Houston bats, so 'deadly' all year, really remain quiet, again? I think not and in the end, "In Verlander I will trust!" Bring on Game 7.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chicago Cubs (8:00 EST).

The Cubs have taken the lead in each game of their NLCS with the Dodgers and did so again in Game 4, with two solo HRs in the bottom of the second. However, for the first time this series, the Cubs were able to hang on for the win. Chicago and LA combined to hit five solo HRs in Game 4 of the NLCS on Wednesday, with the Cubs "staying alive" with a 3-2 victory. For the Cubs, they have now won five straight games when their backs were against the wall, dating back to last year’s World Series. Recapping, they came from 3-1 down to the Indians in the 2016 World Series, beat the Nats 9-8 in Game 5 of  their 2017 NLDS and last night won 3-2 over the Dodgers, preventing LA from a four-game sweep.

Can the Cubs "do it again tonight?" We'll see. What we know for sure is that Chicago will try to stave off elimination for a second consecutive night by defeating the Dodgers at Wrigley Field on Thursday, which would send this NLCS back to Los Angeles for a Game 6 on Saturday. As for the Dodgers, the Game 4 loss was their first loss of the postseason. Los Angeles had not trailed after the fifth inning in any of its previous six playoff games this year. “We don’t expect anyone to lay down,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters. “They’re the world champs, and you know they’re going to fight to the end.”

The pitching matchup features Clayton Kershaw (1-0, 4.76 ERA this postseason) and Jose Quintana (0-0, 1.59 ERA). We know Kershaw owns a 'shaky' playoff history, going 5-7 with a 4.57 ERA in 20 career games (16 starts) in the postseason. He split two starts against the Cubs in last year’s NLCS and allowed two runs over five innings in a no-decision in Game 1 of this matchup. The Dodgers have the 2017 playoffs' best team but in two postseason starts so far, Kershaw has allowed nine hits (including five HRs) and six ERs over 11.1 innings (4.76 ERA). Once again, he has NOT been the same pitcher we saw in the regular season. 

In contrast, Quintana has been excellent in his first postseason, allowing three runs (two earned) over 11.1 innings in two starts and a relief appearance. He gave up two runs and two hits over five innings in Game 1 and left with the contest tied. The Cubs went 10-4 in Quintana's 14 regular season starts after acquiring him form the White Sox, including winning EIGHT of his last nine. The lefty has been 'money' here at Wrigley, with the Cubs winning EIGHT of his nine home starts at Wrigley (including the postseason)! Talk about a 'live dog!'

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chicago Cubs (9:00 EST).

The Los Angeles Dodgers are one win away from reaching the World Series for the first time since 1988 plus in the process, can end Chicago's 'dynasty' at one WS title in a row.  The Cubs have scored first in every game of the series but have then almost incredibly, failed to score again in all three games of this NLCS. The Cubs are batting .160 as a team in the series, while scoring a total of just four runs on 15 hits (32 Ks with just four walks). It that's not bad enough, the Cubs are a woeful 0-for-11 with RISP in the series.

Let's get this daunting stat out of the way, first. Of the 36 teams in postseason history that have led 3-0 in a best-of-seven series, 29 have completed a sweep. However, let's remember that the Cubs erased a three-games-to-one deficit in the 2016 World Series against the Indians to capture their first championship since 1908. Alex Wood 16-3, 2.72 ERA in the regular season and much like Houston's Charlie Morton, has delivered a "career year" in 2017, out of nowhere .He takes the mound here, for the first time since September 26 and it marks his first-ever postseason start. He's made four less-than-stellar relief outings in past postseasons and had allowed eight runs (four earned) over 5.1 innings over his first three postseason appearances before working two scoreless innings out of the bullpen against the Cubs in last year’s NLCS. Meanwhile, the Cubs' Arrieta has made eight postseason starts over these last three years. 

I went against Morton in Game 3 of the ALCS with Houston up 2-0 and he failed miserably, allowing seven ERs in just 3.2 innings. With the Cubs in an 0-3 'hole' here, I'll go to that same 'well' again, going against Wood, who entered this season 27-30 in his career over 112 appearances (77 starts). No sweep tonight in Wrigley!

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chicago Cubs (9:00 EST).

The Dodgers were MLB's best team during the regular season and they have been MLB's best postseason team so far, as well. LA takes a 2-0 lead and a 5-0 overall postseason mark into Game 3 of the NLCS. Yu Darvish takes the mound at Wrigley Tuesday night, coming off winning Game 3 of the NLDS with the D'backs but reality check, he didn't deliver a "Bob Gibson-like" performance. He pitched five innings, allowing two hits and one run with seven Ks and no walks. How about good but not great, OK? Let's remember, his combined momeyline mark this regular season (Texas and LA combined), was minus-$1302, the third-worst among all 2017 starters. His playoff win over Arizona was his first in three tries, after allowing 10 hits (four HRs) and seven ERs over 11.2 innings (5.40 ERA) in losing twice in the postseason with Texas.

Kyle Hendricks takes the mound inmGame 3 for Chicago and the Cubs have to like their chances. Until Hendricks allowed a three-run HR to Talyor in that deciding Game 5 against Washington (Cubs would win, 9-8), he hadn't given up more than three ERs in 14 starts since the All Star break. In fact, in half of those starts (seven), he had allowed one or zero ERs. Prior to allowing four runs on 10/12 at Washington, Hendricks owned a 1.98 ERA in eight previous postseason starts. I say the Cubs have "just the guy they want" on the mound for this "must-win" contest.

I’m not counting out the Cubbies quite yet. Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the New York Yankees (8:05 EST).

Monday’s game has become the most important one of the entire year for the Yankees and suffice it to say, I’m fully expecting the “Evil Empire” to be up to the task in front of the home town crowd.

The visitors hand the ball to Charlie Morton (14-7, 3.62 ERA) who started in Boston last Monday, giving up two earned runs off seven hits and two walks over 4.1 innings of work. 

Morton has delivered a career season for the Astros and who could have predicted it. He began his career with Atlanta in 2008, spent the next seven seasons toiling for the Pirates and then made just four starts for the Phillies in 2016. He was signed by Houston, despite a career record of 46-71 with a 4.53 ERA. However, he went 14-7 with a 3.62 ERA. The Astros were 16-9 in all his starts (plus-$408) but while the team was 11-5 in his home starts, the Astros were only 5-4 in his road starts.

The home side counters with CC Sabathia (14-5, 3.69) who has been a steadying presence on the mound for the Yanks all year. 

CC Sabathia was 15-6 for the Yanks in 2012 but entered 2017 off a four-year run (2013-16) in which he had gone just 32-39, allowing more hits (642) than innings pitched (604) plus fashioned ERAs between 3.91 and 5.28. No one saw his 2017 season coming. CC finished the regular season 14-5, allowing 139 hits in 148.2 IP. More importantly, the Yankees were 19-8 in his starts, giving him a plus-$1163 moneyline mark which ranked third-best among all starters. 

This marks his third postseason start but first here at Yankee Stadium. CC pitched well against the Indians. Although he went only 9.2 innings in his two starts, he struck out 14 batters and his Game 5 effort was a big reason the Yankees advanced. He now takes the mound in this "must-win" situation and it's good news for New York that CC was 7-2 at home with the Yankees going 10-3 in his home starts this season.

Yanks were only team in MLB with more HRs than the Astros (241-238) and are way over due to break out, after being held to just two runs on 10 hits in the first two games of the ALDS. Do you really trust Morton? I don't.

I think the change in venue is just what the doctor orered for New York, while all signs point to a classic letodwn for Houston. All things considered, I think this is a great price. Play on the Yankees.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Washington Nationals (5:35 EST).

With their backs against the wall, I like the Nationals to respond and take this series back to the Nation’s capital.

The visitors hand the ball to Tanner Roark (13-11, 4.67 ERA) who faced the Cubs once this year and who was excellent in giving up two runs over seven innings in the victory. Roark was serviceable on the road with a 7-5, 4.26 ERA record this season. Roark made his first postseason start in last year’s NLDS against the Los Angeles Dodgers, allowing two runs and seven hits over 4.1 innings in a no-decision. Note that he a solid second half, allowing three ERs or less in 11 of 13 starts.

The home side counters with Jake Arrieta (14-10, 3.53) who makes his first start of the postseason after using a few extra days to strengthen his hamstring. Arrieta hasn't pitched since Sep 26, and he missed 2 1/2 weeks after straining the hamstring during a start on Sep 4. He says he's fine but who really knows? He has made nine career starts vs the Nats but only has ONE win, with a 5.48 ERA!

Note that Washington is 4-1 (+3 units) in its last three after being held to one run or less in its prevoius contest, while Chicago is just 2-6 in its last eight after holding an opponent to one run or less in its previous contest.

I think these pitchers are a “wash,” as either is capable of having a big game on any given night. I’m not counting out the hard-hitting and desperate Nat’s quite yet though.

All in all, this is great value in my opinion. Play on Washington.

UPDATE: Roark is out and Stephen Strasburg (15-4, 2.52 ERA) is in for Washington. This play is STILL VALID! Strasburg was battling an illness leading up to this one, but Dusty Baker is going to go with his ace in this pivotal moment. Note that Strasburg is 8-2 with a 2.26 ERA on the road. Play on the Nationals.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Arizona Diamondbacks (10:05 EST).

With their backs against the wall, I look for the hard-hitting Diamondbacks to battle back and grab Game 3.

LA turns to Yu Darvish (10-12, 3.86 ERA) who was superb in nine starts for the Dodgers this year, posting a respectable 3.44 ERA and an elite 61/13 K/W in that span. 

Darvish was excellent on the road this season as well and really, it’s hard to say too many negative things about the hard-throwing right-hander. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time this evening though.

The home side counters with its ace Zack Greinke (17-7, 3.20) who gave up four runs over six innings in a no-decision in the NL Wild Card Game against Colorado. 

Greinke has not been at his best over the last couple of weeks, but with those shaky performances now behind him, the veteran can settle down at home as he’ll look to improve upon his near-perfect 13-1 (2.87 ERA) record at Chase Field this season. 

I’ll additionally point out that the D'backs are 16-3 in Greinke's home starts in 2017 (includes wild card game), while Darvish owns the third-worst moneyline mark in MLB this year (minus-$1302).

I thnk the shift in venue has a big impact on the Diamondbacks’ confidence. Play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New York Yankees (7:05 EST).

I had a play on New York yesterday and I think the home side will once again take advantage of familiar surroundings.

The visitors hand the ball to Josh Tomlin (10-9, 4.98 ERA) who finished the season strong after an up-and-down overall 2017, posting a 3.52 ERA over 30.2 innings of work in September.

Note that Tomlin was 3-3 with a 4.57 ERA on the road and just 4-7 with a 5.47 ERA in all “night” games. 

The Yanks counter with Luis Severino (14-6, 2.98) who was destroyed by the Twins in the Wild Card Game, lucky that his counterpart Ervin Santana was just as bad.

Starts like that though have truly been few and far between for Severino this season and I think he’s going to bounce back in fine fashion here. Severino has to be feeling pretty confident as he’s 8-5 with a 3.71 ERA at home and 12-4 with a 2.37 ERA in all “night” games.

I’m not counting out New York and think that the home side is well worth the price of admission in this particular matchup. Play on the Yankees.

UPDATE: Tomlin is out and Trevor Bauer is in. This play is STILL ACTIVE: Bauer looked good in Game 1 in Cleveland, goign 6.2 scoreless, while striking out eight. Bauer though owned a 4.54 ERA on the road last year and clearly faces a stiff test with such a quick turnaround. 

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Boston Red Sox (1:05 EST).

I had a play on the Red Sox in their 10-3 win in Game 3 in front of the home town crowd and suffice it to say, I look for them to once again ride the wave of emotion and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

The visitors hand the ball to Charlie Morton (14-7, 3.62 ERA) who has had a lengthy time off between his last regular season start (a 3-2 win over the Red Sox on September 30th.) 

Morton was dominant at home this year (10-3, 3.34) and pedestrian on the road (4-4, 4.17).

The home side counters with Rick Porcello (11-17, 4.65) who posted a 5.93 ERA over his last five starts of the regular season. 

Porcello struggled for the most of the year, but catches a break squaring off against Morton here.

Also note that Boston is 3-1 (+1.9 units) in its last four after scoring ten or more runs in its previous contest, while Houston is just 1-2 (-1.2 units) in its last three after allowing ten runs or more in its previous outing.

I like Boston to keep its hopes alive and take advantage of familiar surroundings once again.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the New York Yankees (7:35 EST).

The Yanks are down but not out in my opinion. I think Masahiro Tanaka will outduel Carlos Carrasco as I expect New York to bounce back in familiar surroundings.

Carrasco (18-6, 3.29 ERA) comes in off a superb season, posting 226 strikeouts over 200 innings of work. It’s hard to say anything negative about Carrasco, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that he’s at the wrong place at the wrong time.

Tanaka (13-12, 4.74) struggled through September, but turned in a gem in his final outing, going seven shutout innings while posting 15 strikeouts. Note that Tanaka has been at his best at home this year by going 9-5 with a 3.22 ERA. 

The Tribe were a great road team, but the Yanks were dominant at home this year as well (52-30.) I’m not counting out the hungry, hard-hitting home side quite yet and in my opinion, this is the very definition of great line value. Play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Boston Red Sox (3:35 EST).

The Red Sox are down, but not out in my opinion.

I like Doug Fister to match the Astros’ Brad Peacock inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I’m backing the desperate home side.

Peacock (13-2, 3.00 ERA) actually comes in off a win against these very Red Sox last Thursday, giving up two runs off four hits over five innings. Peacock is a big reason why the Astros are in the position they are right now and it’s difficult to say anything negative about the hard-throwing right-hander. I simply feel he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Fister (5-9, 4.88), who stumbled his way into the postseason after posting a 9.18 ERA over his final 16.2 innings of work, will now look to turn things around in this pivotal moment. 

Fister has the experience to bounce back in these types of situations and he certainly won’t be intimidated in this spot. Note that Boston is 44-27 (+11 units) this year following a loss.

I’ll also point out that Peacock is 1-1 with an 8.53 ERA and 1.974 WHIP over 12.2 innings in three career starts at Fenway Park (Fister is 5-9 with a 4.35 ERA lifetime at Fenway.)

I’m not counting out the hard-hitting Red Sox quite yet. Great price, play on Boston.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Chicago Cubs (7:30 EST).

Ultimately I believe that Kyle Hendricks and the defending champs have much more than just  “punchers chance” in this one.

Hendricks (7-5, 3.03 ERA) has been “lights out” since the mid-summer classic, posting a tiny 2.18 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 72/19 K/W spanning 13 trips to the hill. 

Note that Hendricks has been particularly sharp in this position all year as well by going 3-2 with a 2.83 ERA on the road and 6-0 with a 2.52 ERA in all “night” games.

The home side counters with Stephen Strasburg (15-4, 2.52) who went 7.2 scoreless innings against the Pirates in his last regular season start. Since coming back from the DL, Strasburg has posted a 0.85 ERA over eight starts. 

It’s hard to say anything negative about Strasburg, so I won’t bother. I simply feel he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time today.

Note that Chicago is 3-2 (+2.2 units) in its last five as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Washington is just 22-23 (-10.6 units) this season as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range.

I think Hendricks can match Strasburg inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to the under-rated defending champion underdog. Play on the Cubs.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Astros (4:05 EST).

A couple of competent hurlers go head-to-head in this one. These pitchers are pretty even and so too are these line-ups. Ultimately though I believe that the home field advantage will prove to be a difference maker in Game 1.

The visitors hand the ball to Chris Sale (17-8, 2.90 ERA) who faltered a bit in the second half after a blistering first for his new team. In the end though Sale finished with a 2.90 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 308 strikeouts.

The home side counters with Justin Verlander (15-8, 3.36) who since coming over to the Astros has posted a 1.06 ERA, 0.65 WHIP to go along with 43 strikeouts in 34 innings of work. 

Note that Verlander was 8-2 with a 2.45 ERA in all “home” situations this season.

It’s hard to believe that I’m giving Verlander the slight nod over Sale here. At the start of the year Sale was untouchable, but the Red Sox’ southpaw has been average over the second half. Verlander on the other hand is peaking at this exact moment and I’m expecting the veteran to take advantage of friendly surroundings. Play on the Astros.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (9:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Moore (1-5, 5.34 ERA) who has given up six runs off 12 hits over his last 8.2 innings spanning two starts. Note that he’s 0-1 with a 5.93 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Ricky Nolasco (6-15, 5.02) who also comes in off an outing to forget, giving up four runs (just two earned though) while striking out four over five innings in a loss to the White Sox on Monday. 

Nolasco has given up just six earned run over his last three starts and owns a pedestrian 4.15 ERA at home this year.

I’ll point out though that Seattle has struggled in this spot for bettors all season, going just 9-18 (-5.2 units) as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while conversely, LA has excelled in this spot by going 19-12 (+2.2 units) as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. 

This line could easily be a lot larger, play on the Angels.

UPDATE: Moore is out for Seattle, and Andrew Albers is in. This play is STILL valid. Albers (5-1, 3.19) was moved to the bullpen and has decent numbers. If he’s had one clear weakness though, it’s been his play on the road where he’s posted a rather pedestrian 4.50 ERA. The sky is the limit for the rookie, but this is a tough spot start. The value remains on the home side.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Daniel Gossett (4-10, 5.82 ERA) who was most recently rocked for seven runs off six hits and two walks in a loss to the Mariners on Monday. 

Gossett was lucky as it clearly could have been a lot worse with each of the hits he gave up being of the solo home run variety. It was the second straight outing in which he’s given up at least six runs (note that he’s 3-6 with a 5.68 ERA on the road and just 1-5 with a 5.63 ERA in all “night” contests.)

The home side counters with Andrew Cashner (10-11, 3.42) who comes in off an outing to forget against the hard-hitting Astros on Monday, allowing eight runs (amazingly though, just one earned), off six hits with two strikeouts over 3.2 innings of work. 

Cashner has been far from perfect this year, but there’s no question whatsoever that he’s been much more consistent with his numbers across the board than his counterpart today.

Also note that Cashner has consistently been at his best in front of the home town crowd this season with a highly respectable 2.70 ERA.

Additionally I’ll point out that the A’s are just 15-22 (-6.6 units) this season on the road when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125, while Texas is 16-5 (+8.6 units) as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. 

This line could easily be a lot larger in my professional opinion. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (7:15 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Taijuan Walker (9-9, 3.54) who comes in off an outing to forget after getting shelled for seven runs (just three earned) off six hits and three walks while stirking out six over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Fish on Saturday. 

Previous to this dud though, Walker had allowed just four runs while stirking out 27 opponents through 28.2 frames spanning a five-game stretch. 

Walker has one last chance to get things dialed in before the playoffs and he takes his solid 3.54 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.3 K/9 into his final regular season outing (note that he’s been at his best on the road with a 6-5, 2.99 ERA record.) 

The home side counters with Jake Junis (8-3, 4.39) who was also crushed in his last outing, giving up six runs off seven hits over five innings in a loss to the Yanks on Monday. Five of his seven hits allowed went for extra bases, including two dingers. Granted starts like that have been few and far between for the rookie, but saying that, note that he still owns a pedestrian 4.15 ERA in all “night” games this year.

Additionally I’ll point out that Arizona is 11-6 (+5.5 units) this season in all interleague games, while KC is just 7-10 (-2.4 units) in the same position.

I like Walker to come in focused and I expect him to get the better of his younger inconsistent counterpart. Play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

This is an 8* PERFECT STORM on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST).

I had a play on Miami last night and I think the Marlins will roll in this matchup as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Luiz Gohara (1-3, 4.63 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing against Philadelphia on Sunday, giving up one run over seven innings for the victory.

Clearly I’m not reading too much into one good performance though, as note that previous to that Gohara had posted a 6.06 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over three starts. 

The home side counters with Dan Straily (10-9, 4.08) who gave up one run off four hits over six innings while also striking out nine in an unfortunate no-decision against the Diamondbacks on Sunday. 

Straily looks for his 11th win of the season and will also be hoping to push his ERA back down under 4.00 (note that he’s 5-3 with a 3.18 ERA at home this season.) 

I’ll point out that ATL is just 12-18 (-9.8 units) in its last 30 against clubs with losing records, while Miami is 30-20 (+9.5 units) in its last 50 in the same position. 

I love Straily in this matchup and expect the veteran to easily outduel his still relatively untested rookie counterpart. Lay the price, play on the Marlins.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oakland A’s (8:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Sean Manaea (11-10, 4.56 ERA) who had his last start skipped over, but who in his previous outing gave up three runs (one earned) while striking out four over five innings in a victory over the Phillies on Sunday. 

Manaea has now given up three runs or fewer in five of his past six outings and owns a solid 4.12 FIP and 7.9 K/9 for the season.

The home side counters with the volatile Miguel Gonzalez (8-12, 4.62) who comes in off a decent outing against these very A’s on Saturday, allowing one run over six innings. Gonzalez though has been more “miss” than “hit” this year and owns a pedestrian 4.56 ERA in all home situations.

Additionally I’ll point out that Texas is just 1-2 (-1.5 units) in its last three against southpaws, while Oakland is 4-1 (+3.2 units) in its last five against right-handed starters. 

All things considered, I think this is a great price. Play on the A’s.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST).

I think that home field will prove to be a big advantage for Eduardo Rodriguez tonight.

The visitors hand the ball to Brad Peacock (12-2, 2.98 ERA), who has been sharp over the last month with a solid 2.35 ERA. It’s hard to say too many negative things about Peacock, as he’s been solid across the board. However, I simply feel he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Rodriguez (6-6, 3.91) comes in off a gem against Cincinnati on Saturday, allowing three hits and two walks while striking out six over eight scoreless innings. 

Rodriguez has been even better than Peacock in September, posting a tiny 2.13 ERA and 30/8 K/W over his last four starts. 

These hurlers and line-ups are clearly very evenly matched, but as mentioned off the top, I believe that in this playoff like atmosphere that home field advantage simply can’t be overlooked a very real factor in this particular matchup. Great line value on the hard-hitting home side, play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST).

In this meaningless end of season contest, I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Julio Teheran (11-12, 4.39 ERA) who gave up two runs over seven innings in a no-decision against the Phillies on Saturday. 

Teheran has been better on the road than at home this year, but he’s still just 7-10 with a 4.77 ERA in all “night” games.

The home side counters with Dillon Peters (0-2, 6.31) who gave up five runs off six hits over four innings in a loss to Arizona on Saturday. Note though that Peters has posted a 2.25 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

I’ll point out that ATL is just 1-4 (-3 units) in its last five against southpaws, while Miami is 4-2 (+2 units) in its last six against right-handed starters.

I like Peters to bounce back in front of the home town crowd and for Teheran to finally show some regression. Play on the Marlins.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atlanta Braves (7:10 EST).

I think we’re getting great value on the superior starter.

The visitors hand the ball to Sean Newcomb (4-8, 4.26 ERA) who comes in off a strong outing against the Phillies on Friday, giving up two runs off four hits with two walks with five strikeouts over 5.1 innings in the eventual victory. 

Newcomb is 3-1 in his last six starts while posting a solid 3.86 ERA. Note that he’s been at his best on the road as well with a 3.66 ERA.

The home side counters with the volatile Robert Gsellman (7-7, 5.38) who was shelled for six runs over five innings in a fortunate no-decision against Washington on Friday.

Gsellman has now walked 15 batters over his last 37.2 innings with just 21 strikeouts in that span. 

Note that Gsellman owns an uninspiring 4.76 ERA at home this season, as well as a 6.62 ERA in all “night” games.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly evaluate and assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have. Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Gsellman has another long night ahead of him.

As mentioned off the top, great value on the underrated Newcomb in this matchup. Play on Atlanta.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Washington Nationals (7:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Tanner Roark (13-10, 4.41 ERA) who makes his final start before the playoffs, most recently giving up three runs off six hits while strking out seven batters through seven innings in a loss to the Braves on Thursday. 

Despite the outcome, Roark finishes the regular season on fire, having allowed two runs or fewer in 11 of his 12 starts since the Mid Summer Classic (note that he’s a solid 7-4 with a 3.84 ERA on the road this season.)

The home side counters with the volatile Mark Leiter (3-6, 4.69) who gave up three runs off five hits over six innings in a no-decision against the Dodgers on Thursday. 

Leiter has admittedly looked better of late, but note that he’s still just 3-3 with a pedestrian 4.01 ERA in all “night” games this season.

I’ll point out as well that Washington is 72-47 (+6.7 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Philadelphia is just 39-74 (-27.7 units) in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, I think Roark and the hard-hitting visiting side are well worth the price of admission in this particular matchup. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Oakland A’s (3:35 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Erasmo Ramirez (5-6, 4.35 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing against the Indians on Friday, giving up one run over eight innings in what turned out to be a disheartening no-decision. 

This is Ramirez’s final start of the year, note that he’s 4-0 with a 2.49 ERA at home, compared to just 1-6 with a 6.09 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Kendall Graveman (6-4, 4.17) who also comes in off a strong outing, giving up one run over seven innings in a victory over the Rangers on Friday. Over 20 innings in September Graveman has posted a sharp 2.70 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.

While Graveman is just 1-4 with a 6.39 ERA on the road, note that he’s 5-0 with a 2.79 ERA at home.

Additionally I’ll point out that Seattle is just 22-29 (-7.3 units) in all day games this year, while Oakland is 33-27 (+8.8 units) in all day games.

In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the A’s.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (10:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to James Paxton (12-5, 3.03 ERA) who gave up two runs over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Rangers on Thursday. This was his second start of the DL and it was actually a lot better than his first. 

But with those two “tune-ups” under his betl, I think we’ll see Paxton return to form here. Note that to go along with his solid 3.03 ERA he also sports a sharp 1.13 WHIP and 10.3 K/9 (is 8-4 with a 3.43 ERA in all “night” games as well.) 

The home side counters with Daniel Mengden (2-1, 3.30) who comes in off a win against the Tigers on Wednesday, going seven scoreless and striking out four. 

Here’s another pitcher whose peripheral’s don’t support his record and ERA. Also note that Mengden owns a poor 5.06 ERA at home this season.

The M’s have been at their best against the worst teams this year, going 36-26 (+2.2 units) against clubs with losing records, while conversely, the A’s have struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 38-41 (-2.7 units) against losing teams thus far.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mariners.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (8:40 EST).

I don’t think that the the home field advantage factor can be discounted in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Jose Urena (14-6, 3.55 ERA) who held the Mets to two runs over eight innings in a 9-2 victory on Wednesday. 

Urena is absolutely defying the odds right now, as his peripherals all suggest he’s been extremly lucky to this point: his K/9 is just 6.0 his BB/9 is a poor 3.2 and his HR/9 is an unremarkable 1.3. 

In other words, regression seems imminent now that he’s about to take on Coors.

The home side counters with Tyler Anderson (5-6, 5.24) who gave up three run off six hits and a walk while striking out six over six innings in an unfortunate setback to San Diego on Thursday. 

Anderson has looked like a different pitcher over three starts since returning from the DL, posting a 1.72 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and 7.5 K/9 (owns a very respectable 4.98 ERA at Coors Field this year as well.)

Additionally I’ll point out that Miami is just 33-45 (-5.9 units) on the road, while Colorado is 43-32 (2.9 units) at home this season.

I think Urena’s “luck” runs out in this tough hitter friendly park. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Kevin Gausman (11-10, 4.61 ERA), who comes in off a gem against the hard-hitting Red Sox on Tuesday, giving up three hits with two walks with seven strikeouts. 

Gausman would go on to induce ten groundball outs and had 24 called strikes as well. Gausman has turned the corner over the last month and will now look to improve upon his respectable 9-6, 3.99 ERA record in all “night” games.

The home side counters with the volatile Trevor Williams (6-9, 4.18) who gave up one run over five innings in a loss to Milwaukee on Tuesday.

Williams has admittedly looked better of late, but I’ll point out that he’s still just 3-6 with a 5.01 ERA in all night games this season.

I think Gausman is flying under the radar here, not getting nearly enough respect from the bookmakers. Williams has been hit or miss all year, while Gausman appears to be peaking right as the season is coming to a close. All things considered, I think this is a great price. Play on the Orioles.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST).

I think that Andrew Cashner and the Wildcard hopeful Rangers have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one.

The visitors hand the ball to Colin McHugh (3-2, 3.44 ERA) who returned from the DL to beat the White Sox on Tuesday, giving up one run over five innings. 

McHugh though has been a complete “Jekyll and Hyde” hurler all season, going a spectacular 2-0 with a 0.83 ERA at home, compared to a 1-2, 5.28 ERA record on the road.

Cashner (10-10, 3.44) most recently gave up three runs off six hits and three walks over six innings in an 8-6 win over the Mariners on Wednesday. 

Cashner has now posted four quality efforts out of his last five trips to the hill and owns a sharp 3.45 ERA over that span. 

And if recent history is any precedence, then Cashner has to be feeling pretty confident in this matchup, as when he faced the Astros back on August 30th he’d hold them to one run over eight frames (note that he owns a 2.71 ERA at home as well.)

I think McHugh’s road struggles continue against this determined home side and I expect the red hot Cashner to take full advantage. Play on the Rangers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to AJ Cole (2-5, 4.43 ERA) who gave up three runs off seven hits and two walks while striking out five over five innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Saturday. To go along with his unimpressive 4.43 ERA, Cole also owns a poor 1.59 WHIP and 37/23 K/W over 42.2 innings of work. 

The home side counters with ace Aaron Nola (12-10, 3.56) who comes in off a confidence building gem against the hard-hitting Dodgers on Tuesday, giving up two runs with eight strikeouts over seven innings of work.

Nola has now posted 13 quality efforts out of his last 17 trips to the hill, while posting a 128/31 K/W over 111 innings in that time frame (note that Nola has been particularly effective at home this season as well by going 9-4 with a 2.98 ERA.) 

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching. Often the best indicator we have to properly assess a starting pitcher is “recent form.” Recent form displayed by these two hurlers suggests that Cole has another long night ahead of him. All things considered, I think this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Phillies.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oakland A’s (4:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage factor can be overlooked in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Martin Perez (12-11, 4.70 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing against the Mariners on Tuesday, giving up one run over six innings. Perez has looked better of late, but still owns just a 6-7, 4.33 ERA record in all “night” games.

The home side counters with Jharel Cotton (8-10, 5.81) who returns from the ten-day DL to make this start. Cotton has been hit or miss this year, but I’ll point out that Oakland is 3-1 (+2.2 units) in its last four against southpaws, while Texas is just 2-4 (-2.6 units) in its last six against right-handed starters.

I like Cotton to outduel his inconsistent counterpart and for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Oakland.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (1:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Doug Fister (5-5, 4.86 ERA), who after a stretch of complete dominance, is coming off back-to-back poor outings, most recently giving up five runs over two innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Orioles on Monday.

The home side counters with Jackson Stephens (2-0, 4.80) who also comes in off an outing to forget, allowing five runs (including two home runs) over 3.2 innings against St. Louis on Tuesday. 

Note that Stephens posted a 4.92 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in Triple-A this year. 

Neither starter instills much confidence right now, but Fister has the pedigree and track record to get back on track with the playoffs on the horizon. Certainly Boston also gets the big nod at the plate in this matchup.

This line could easily be larger in my opinion, play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Twins (12:10 EST).

Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakes are leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Jose Berrios (12-8, 3.94 ERA) who most recently gave up three runs while striking out four over three innings in a loss to the Yanks on Tuesday. Berrios ran his pitch count up early and got the hook. 

Previous to that though Berrios had put together two consecutive quality outings and note that he’s got to be feeling confident in this position, as despite the venue he’s been at his best in all “day” games by going 7-0 with a 3.78 ERA.

The home side counters with the volatile Buck Farmer (4-4, 7.11) who most recently was shelled for five runs over 2.2 innings in a loss to the A’s on Monday. 

Since re-joining the Detroit rotation Farmer has been blasted for 19 runs over 20.1 innings of work (is an absolutely atrocious 1-3 with an 11.65 ERA at home as well.)

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and often the best indicator we have to properly judge a hurler is “recent form.” Recent form displayed by these starters suggests that Farmer has another long afternoon ahead of him.

In my opinion, Berrios and the hard-hitting visiting side are well worth the price of admission in this matchup.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

Both of these starters have looked brilliant at times this year and really poor in others. Ultimately I believe that the home field advantage factor can’t be overlooked in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Lance Lynn (11-7, 3.09 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits with four walks over four innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Cubs on Sunday. This was Lynn’s second consecutive start in which he’s gone five or fewer innings while also giving up three earned runs. 

The home side counters with Gerrit Cole (11-11, 4.13) who gave up four runs off three hits while striking out four over five innings in a loss to the Reds on Sunday. 

Cole has also strung together a couple of duds after an extended streak of excellence, but note that the Cardinals are just 38-40 (-2.7 units) on the road this year, while Pittsburgh is 40-36 (+1.5 units) at home.

I like Cole to outduel his struggling counterpart and get back on track in front of the home town crowd. Play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Boston Red Sox (4:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez (5-6, 4.15 ERA) who gave up three runs off seven hits and one walk across six innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday, also striking out seven. 

Rodriguez has performed well of late, posting a 2.55 ERA and 24/6 K/W over 17.2 innings spanning his last three trips to the hill (note that he owns a very respectable 3.59 ERA in all “day” games this season.)

The home side counters with Robert Stephenson (5-5, 5.01) who comes in off a strong outing against the Pirates on Sunday, going six scoreless while striking out eight. 

Stephenson has been pretty good of late, but note that the Reds are just 8-25 (-15.8 units) against southpaws this year, while Boston is 70-47 (+11.6 units) against right-handed starters. 

I like Rodriguez to outduel his counterpart and for the hard-hitting visiting side to take full advantage. Play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oakland A’s (10:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup on the mound.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Nick Martinez (3-6, 5.47 ERA) who has bounced around from the bullpen and Triple-A all year. To go along with his poor 5.47 ERA, Martinez also sports a 1.35 WHIP and 5.3 K/9 rate, while posting a 5.70 ERA in all road games thus far in the majors.

The home side counters with Kendall Graveman (5-4, 4.39) who went two scoreless innings against the Phillies on Saturday in what turned out to be a rain-shortened no-decision. Over his last two starts Graveman has now allowed just one run over 8.1 innings of work.

Note that while Graveman is just 1-4 with a 6.39 ERA on the road, he’s a spectacular 4-0 with a 2.98 ERA at home. 

Note as well that Texas is just 36-41 on the road, while Oakland is 42-33 (+11.2 units) at home.

I think this line could easily be much higher. Value swings to Oakland.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

Marco Estrada just signed a one-year, $13 million dollar extension with the Jays between this start and his last one. Suffice it to say, I think Estrada comes to play today.

The vistors hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka (12-11, 4.73 ERA) who gave up two runs off eight hits and two walks while striking out eight over seven innings in a victory over Baltimore on Thursday. In his previous outing he was rocked for seven runs over four innings by the Rangers last Friday. 

Tanaka has looked better overall since the All Star break, but note that despite that he’s still just 4-6 with a ballooned 4.16 ERA on the road. 

Estrada (9-8, 4.84) has struggled most of the year, but he’s been turning the corner finally over the last month, posting a respectable 3.60 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over four September starts (note that he’s 5-3 with a 4.01 ERA at home.)

Additionally I’ll point out that New York is just 11-13 (-6.6 units) as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Toronto is 5-4 (+2.9 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range this season.

Great value here, as I expect Estrada to be the difference maker. Play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:05 EST).

I think the hard-hitting visiting side offers tremendous value in this matchup.

The Cards hand the ball to Michael Wacha (12-8, 4.02 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits while stirking out seven over six innings in a loss to the Cubs on Saturday. 

Previous to that though Wacha had allowed just four earned runs over three innings.

The home side counters with Ivan Nova (11-14, 4.20) who was feared that he’d have to miss this start due to a shouder issue, but the 30-year old has now been cleared to go. Nova started off the season on fire, but has dropped off considerably in the second half, posting a poor 6.22 ERA over 11 trips to the mound. 

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and often the best indicator we have to properly judge a hurler is “recent form.” Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Nova has another long night in store for him. The correct call is Wacha in this one, lay the price with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Washington Nationals (7:35 EST).

For this pick, I’m concentrating completley on the starting pitching. Tanner Roark has officially turned a corner and looks to finish up the season strong, while Braves’ veteran RA Dickey is once again stumbling towards the finish line. 

Ultimately I feel that Roark should be a much bigger fav in this particular matchup.

Roark (13-9, 4.43 ERA) gave up two runs off four hits and a walk while striking out seven over six innings in a victory over these very Braves on Thursday. 

Over his past ten trips to the hill Roark has posted a solid 3.19 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 (note that he’s 7-3 with a 3.84 ERA on the road.)

Dickey (9-10, 4.41) was most recently rocked for five runs off eight hits over five innings in a loss to the Mets on Saturday. 

Over three starts in September Dickey has posted a deplorable 10.02 ERA and 2.09 WHIP (note that he owns a pedestrian 4.56 ERA at home as well.)

Additionally I’ll point out that Washington is 65-31 (+23.7 units) this year in all “night” games and 68-45 (+4.6 units) against right-handed starters, while Atlanta is just 46-56 (-2.1 units) in all night games and 52-69 (-9.2 units) against right-handed starters.

I’m expecting Roark to come in razor focused here and I have a hard time seeing Dickey matching pace. Value swings to the hard-hitting Nationals, lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (10:10 EST).

I like the home side to bounce back after yesterday’s 3-1 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Cashner (9-10, 3.40 ERA) who gave up five earned runs over 4.1 innings in a loss to these very Mariners on Thursday. 

Cashner had looked solid over three outings previous to this dud, but note that he’s still just 5-6 with a pedestrian 4.04 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Felix Hernandez (5-4, 4.19) who returned from the DL to face the Rangers last week, going four innings and giving up one run while posting a solid 3/0 K/W in the no-decision. 

With the Mariners sitting just a couple of games back from the Twins for the Wildcard spot, Seattle can ill afford to let any favorable matchups like this one get away. 

I think Cashner’s recent struggles carry over here. Lay the price with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:10 EST).

I like Arizona to get back on track this evening after last night’s setback.

The visitors hand the ball to Robbie Ray (14-5, 2.74 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits over seven innings while striking out ten in a victory over San Francisco on Friday. 

Ray has now posted double-digit strikeouts in four straight trips to the hill and has won all five of his starts since returning from the DL with a 1.39 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and 55/6 K/W in only 32.1 innings of work (note that Ray has been at his absolute best on the road this year as well by going 8-1 with a 1.33 ERA.) 

The home side counters with Dinelson Lamet (7-7, 4.15) who gave up one run over six innings in an unfortunate loss to the Twins on Wednesday. Lamet has looked great in the second half with a 3.00 ERA over 11 starts, but note that his 4.1 BB/9 continues to be an area of major concern (also note that when Lamet faced Arizona in June he was blasted for seven runs.)

I’ll additionally point out that Arizona is 2-1 (+1 units) in its last three after giving up six or more runs, while San Diego is just 1-2 (-1 units) in its last three after scoring six or more runs. 

Enough is enough. I like Ray to outduel Lamet and I expect the now re-focused and hungry hard-hitting visiting side to take full advantage. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

I think the Jays will build off their 5-2 win yesterday.

The visitors hand the ball to Jake Junis (7-2, 4.15 ERA) who gave up one run off seven hits while striking out one over five innings in a no-decision against the Indians on Thursday. Junis has looked decent of late but note that despite a 5-2 record, he still owns a pedestrian 4.75 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Brett Anderson (3-3, 5.73) who gave up two runs while striking out four over five innings in a no-decision against the Twins on Thursday. Anderson has also looked pretty good for his new team, giving up just eight runs over 22 innings of work.

I’ll point out though that KC is interestingly just 1-3 (-2 units) in its last four after scoring two runs or less in its previous contest, while Toronto is 2-1 (+1 units) in its last three after holding its opponent to two runs or less in its previous outing.

I’m going to give Anderson the slight nod in this matchup and that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the home side tonight. Play on the BLUE JAYS.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* Las Vegas Insider on the Colorado Rockies (10:15 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe (both on the mound and at the plate.)

The visitors hand the ball to German Marquez (10-7, 4.41 ERA) who comes in off a poor start against the red hot Diamondbacks on Wednesday, allowing four runs over 3.2 innings of work. 

Marquez has been decent on the road this year though, going 4-3 with a 4.01 ERA.

The home side counters with the volatile Johnny Cueto (7-8, 4.58) who was rocked for four runs off six hits and four walks over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Tuesday. 

This is Cueto’s worst season ever in the majors since his rookie year (1.41 WHIP and just 2-3 with a 4.60 ERA at home.)

Note that Colorado is 39-28 (+15.1 units) against the division this year, while San Francisco is just 23-42 (-20.1 units) against division rivals this season. 

I think Marquez will outduel and outlast his inconsistent counterpart and in a scenario like that, the value absolutely swings to the hard-hitting visiting side. Play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

This is an 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner on the LA Angels (10:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a legitimate factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Clevinger (10-5, 3.21 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits over five innings in a victory over Detroit on Wednesday. 

Clevinger has been on quite the tear of late, allowing just one earned run over his last 23.2 innings of work.

Tyler Skaggs (2-5, 4.37) will have his hands full in this matchup, but he will be feeling confident after throwing seven shutout innings in a 9-1 win over the Astros on Wednesday. 

Skaggs has posted back-to-back strong efforts with an elite 14/2 K/W in that span. 

Additionally, I thnk it’s interesting to note that Cleveland is just 11-12 (-6.4 units) this year on all Tuesday night contests, while LA is 17-6 (+13.2 units) in the same position.

The Tribe just took three of four from the Royals over the weekend and they now have to transition across country for a late night West Coast game. 

LA took two of three from the Rangers this weekend and I think it offers great value in this position. Classic letdown sport for Cleveland, play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST).

The Phillies shocked the Dodgers yesterday and I think they have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Yu Darvish (9-12, 4.08 ERA) who comes in off a strong outing against the light-hitting Giants on Wednesday, going seven shutout innings in the victory. 

Previous to that though Darvish had lost three straight behind a disgusting 9.49 ERA (note that he’s just 7-8 with a pedestrian 4.31 ERA in all “night” games this year.)

The home side counters with Aaron Nola (11-10, 3.60) who gave up one run off four hits while striking out 11 over seven innings in a victory over Miami on Wednesday. 

Nola has now posted a 19/4 K/W over his last 12.1 innings of work and note that he’s been at his best in front of the home town crowd as well by going 8-4 with a 3.01 ERA (is also 10-6 with a 3.83 ERA in all night contests.)

Amazingly, these two teams are moving in opposite directions right now, with LA at 5-12 (-18.6 units) in September, while Philadelaphia is 9-8 (+3.4 units) this month.

I like Nola to outduel Darvish at home. Great value, play on the Phillies.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Matt Harvey (5-4, 5.82 ERA) who allowed five runs off seven hits over 3.1 innings (also four walks) in a setback to the Cubs on Wednesday. 

Harvey has struggled since re-joining the rotation and note that he’s been at his worst on the road all year by going just 2-4 with a 6.18 ERA thus far.

The home side counters with Dan Straily (9-8, 3.95) who gave up eight runs over six innings in a loss to Philadelphia on Wednesday. 

Starts like that though have truly been few and far between for Straily this season (in fact, out of the 29 trips to the hill he’s made this year he’s allowed more than four runs just twice!) and he’ll now look to bounce back and improve upon his respectable 4-3, 3.27 ERA record in front of the home town crowd.

I have zero faith in Harvey and believe this is a golden opportunity for Straily (one which I expect him to take full advantage of.) Lay the price with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST).

Dylan Bundy has been better at home than on the road and I expect that trend to carry Baltimore  to victory tonight.

The visitors hand the ball to Doug Fister (5-7, 3.91 ERA) who was on quite the streak before allowing six runs off six hits over four innings in a loss to the A’s on Wednesday. Over a four-game stretch previous to that he’d posted a 1.50 ERA, but clearly he took a big step back once again.

Note that Fister is just 4-4 with a 4.38 ERA in all “night” games as well.

Bundy (13-9, 4.12) comes in off a gem against Toronto on Tuesday, allowing one run off five hits while striking out eight in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. It was Bundy’s sixth quality effort out of his last seven trips to the hill. To go along with his respectable 4.03 ERA, he also owns a sharp 1.18 WHIP (note that he’s 7-5 with a 3.82 ERA at home.)

I think it’s interesting to note that Boston is just 7-9 (-3.6 units) this season when playing on a Monday, while Baltimore is 12-6 (+5.6 units) in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Orioles.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Twins (7:05 EST).

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching. His last start aside, Yankees’ starter Jaime Garcia has been consistently inconsistent all year.

Twins’ ace Ervin Santana (15-7, 3.45 ERA) on the other hand has been stready all season and he comes in off a gem against the Padres on Wednesday, holding the Friars scoreless over six innings while striking out seven, unfortunate to receive a no-decision. 

Santana had admittedly struggled over three starts previous, but he was able to get back on course with this latest effort and he’ll now be looking to improve upon his spectacular 9-2, 2.74 ERA record on the road.

Garcia (5-9, 4.43) gave up one run off five hits and one walk while striking out four over 4.2 innings in a no-decision against the Rays on Wednesday. 

Despite this decent performance, Garcia still hasn’t completed six frames in any of his six starts for the Yanks (note that he’s just 1-5 with a 4.31 ERA in all home contests this season.)

Additionally I’ll point out that Minnesota is 11-8 (+4.7 units) in its last 19 against teams with winning records, while New York is just 20-21 (-4.3 units) in the same position.

I like Santana to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart. Great value, play on Minnesota.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Washington Nationals (8:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Hyun-Jin Ryu (5-7, 3.59 ERA) who had his last start skipped over to give him some extra rest. Ryu last pitched against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday and was unfortunate to receive a no-decision after allowing one run with five walks over six innings. 

Note though that in his previous start he’d been shelled for six runs over four innings. 

The home side counters with Stephen Strasburg (13-4, 2.64) who comes into this one on top form, most recently going eight scoreless in a victory over Philadelphia on Sunday, allowing two hits and striking out ten. 

Strasburg threw 70 percent of his pitches for strikes and didn’t allow an opponent to get past first. The Nationals’ ace comes into this one having thrown 34 straight scoreless frames with an elite 33/3 K/W over his last four combined starts. 

As solid as Ryu has been, Strasburg comes into this one on a completely different level in my opinion. A very fair price indeed considering that, play on the Nationals.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:05 EST).

I’m going to give Zack Grienke the nod on the mound in this matchup. I’m also going to give the Diamondbacks the big nod at the plate. With those two factors working in our favor, it makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying.

Greinke (16-6, 2.99 ERA) gave up two runs off five hits while striking out six over seven innings in a loss to the Rockies on Monday. Greinke has been better at home than on the road, but he’s been sharp in all “night” games regardless of the venue by going 14-5 with a 2.66 ERA thus far.

The home side counters with ace Madison Bumgarner (3-8, 3.55) who gave up six runs off ten hits over five innings in a loss to the White Sox on Sunday. Over his past two outings he’s now been shelled for 11 runs spanning 11 innings of work. 

Additionally I’ll point out that Arizona is 53-32 (+18.2 units) this year following a victory, while San Francisco is just 39-53 (-14.2 units) following a loss. 

I like Greinke to easily match or go longer than Bumgarner today and in a scenario like that, the advantage definitely swings to the hard-hitting visiting side. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (7:10 EST).

Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Zach Davies (17-8, 3.67 ERA) who gave up one run while striking out six over seven innings in a victory over the Cubs on Sunday. Davies has now given up just five earned runs over his past six starts and note that he’s been particularly effective on the road by going 9-2 with a tiny 2.04 ERA this season.

The home side counters with the volatile Adam Conley (6-7, 5.23) who was shelled for four runs off nine hits with two walks over four innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Braves on Saturday.

Unfortunately for Conley a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as he’s a poor 2-4 with a 7.56 ERA in Miami so far this season.

Additionally I’ll point out that Milwaukee has excelled in this spot for bettors this season, going 41-35 (+11.5 units) following a victory, while Miami has done poorly by going just 36-42 (-3.4 units) following a loss.

This line could easily be a lot larger. Play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Phladelphia Phillies (7:05 EST).

I like the home side to bounce back here off yesterday’s 4-0 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Kendall Graveman (5-4, 4.48 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing against the Astros on Sunday, giving up one run over six innings for the victory. I’m not reading too much into that effort though as previous to that Graveman had been rocked for nine earned runs over his previous ten innings of work. 

Note that Graveman has been horrible on the road as well this year by going just 1-4 with a ballooned 6.75 ERA.

The home side counters with Ben Lively (3-6, 3.86) who comes in off a loss despite giving up just three runs off six hits over eight innings in the eventual 3-2 setback to the hard-hitting Nationals on Sunday (walking just one and striking out seven.)

Since re-joining the big leagues, Lively has a solid 3.94 ERA and a 28/9 K/W over 32 innings of work. 

I’ll point out that Oakland is just 1-2 (-1.2 units) in its last three following a victory, while Philadelphia is 2-1 (+1.1 unit) in its last three following a loss. 

Graveman’s road issues get carried over here and Lively continues his strong form to end the season. All things considered, I feel a great price.

Play on the Phillies.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Toronto Blue Jays (8:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to JA Happ (8-10, 3.73 ERA) who comes in off a strong outing on Sunday, giving up two runs (one earned) off five hits while striking out nine over six innings of work in the eventual victory over Detroit. 

Happ owns a solid 3.73 ERA, 8.8 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 over 125.1 innings this season.

The home side counters with the volatile Bartolo Colon (6-12, 6.41) who was shelled for five runs off six hits over 1.2 innings in a loss to the Royals on Sunday. Colon had looked decent over a ten start stretch in posting a 3.94 ERA, but he came unravelled in this one.

To go along with his poor 6.41 ERA overall, Colon now also has a sub-par 1.62 WHIP and 5.7 K/9 for the season.

Often the best indicator we have to properly judge starting pitching is “recent form.” All signs point to another long night for Colon here, while I expect Happ to continue his recent strong play and to find a way to outduel his venerable counterpart. Play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Kansas City Royals (7:10 EST).

I’m betting against the Indians 22 game win streak here as I think Jason Vargas will build off his last outing and I look for the Royals to bounce back from yesterday’s close 3-2 defeat.

Vargas (15-10, 4.15 ERA) most recently gave up one run off four hits while striking out three over five innings in a victory over Minnesota on Sunday. 

Vargas closed the first half with a 2.62 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, so this latest effort would indicate that the veteran could be poised to finish the campaign strong. He’ll certainly be hoping so and will have his hands full with a suddenly re-focused Trevor Bauer.

Bauer (16-8, 4.33) comes in off a victory over Baltimore on Sunday, giving up two runs off seven hits over six innings of work. Bauer has now posted five straight victories.

But sometimes winning can lead to complacency. 

Of course everyone wants to knock off the Tribe and end their ridiculous win streak and I think that Vargas has much more than just a “punchers chance” in this particular matchup. 

All good things must come to an end and for Cleveland, the bell tolls for thee this evening. Play on the Royals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the LA Dodgers (7:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Alex Wood (14-3, 2.81 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Rockies on Saturday, allowing five runs off eight hits while striking out just two over five innings in a loss to the Rockies on Saturday.

Wood’s earlier numbers were clearly unsustainable over the entire course of the season, but I don’t think it’s time to overreact either. Wood has all the tools in place to return to form and finish strong as his patch of mediocrity could still become distant memory with one last surge. And note, Wood has been as good as they come on the road, going 6-1 with a 2.38 ERA thus far.

The home side counters with the volatile Edwin Jackson (5-5, 4.14) who gave up five runs off seven hits over 3.1 innings in a loss to the lowly Phillies on Saturday. Jackson looked decent in August with a 2.94 ERA, but has since regressed again, allowing ten runs over his last nine innings of work. 

Additionally note that LA is 17-11 this year as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Washington is interestingly 0-1 this year as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range.

I’m banking on Wood bouncing back and I look for him to easily outduel his “gas can” counterpart. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (10:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors look to rebound off of yesterday’s humbling 9-1 defeat and hand the ball to Brad Peacock (10-2, 3.05 ERA) who is 8-2 with a 3.33 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 124/40 K/W in 18 starts this year. 

Note that Peacock has been at his best on the road this season as well by going 6-0 with a 2.95 ERA.

The home side counters with the volatile Ricky Nolasco (6-13, 5.19) who gave up four runs off six hits over 3.2 innings in a loss to Seattle on Friday. 

Nolasco has now served up a home run in three consecutive outings and owns a 1.92 HR/9. 

Note that he’s just 3-5 with a 4.98 ERA at home this year as well.

Recent form is often the best indicator we have when it comes to properly judging starting pitching. I like Peacock to continue his strong play on the road, to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart and I look for the Astros to answer off yesterday’s beatdown loss. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST).

I like the home side to answer after yesterday’s humbling 8-1 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Felix Hernandez (5-4, 4.28) who has been re-activated after spending the last five weeks on the disabled list. 

Hernandez draws a tough opponent in his first start back, as the Texas offense has the fifth best team OPS in MLB since the mid-summer classic (also note that Hernandez is just 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA on the road.)

The home side counters with Andrew Cashner (9-9, 3.19) who gave up one run off four hits and one walk while striking out four over seven innigns in a no-decision against New York on Saturday. 

Cashner has looked great in the second half, posting eight quality starts out of his last ten trips to the hill. And note that he’s been at his best at home as well by going 4-3 with a very respectable 2.23 ERA.

I think the oddsmakers are giving Hernandez much too much respect here. Casnher has quietly been dominating and has a major advantage of being at home in this matchup. Great value, play on the revenge-minded Rangers.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals.

With Miami making a pitching change, I’m dropping the Fish as the first 8* pick of my STP and instead going to go with the Nationals.

Washington opened in the -165 range in this matchup, but has since dropped to a more investable level. And I definitely feel that the value is now firmly on the hard-hitting home side.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Foltynewicz (10-12, 4.74 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits over six innings in a loss to the Marlins on Friday. 

Foltynewicz has now served up 20 home runs in 150 innings of work for a 1.2 HR/9 (note that he’s a poor 5-7 with a 5.40 ERA on the road.)

The home side counters with Tanner Roark (12-9, 4.48) who gave up three runs while striking out six over six innings in a victory over Philadelphia on Thursday. 

Roark is firing on all cylinders of late, posting a solid 3.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 9.1 K/9 over his last ten starts. 

Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests that Foltynewicz has another long night ahead of him. I like Roark to continue his recent surge and i look for him to outduel his volatile counterpart. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Miami Marlins (7:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers even realize.

The visitors hand the ball to the steady Dan Straily (9-8, 3.95 ERA) who gave up four runs (only three earned though) over five innings in a no-decision against the Braves on Thursday. 

Note that Straily has now given up three earned runs or less in 23 of 29 starts overall this season for a 3.95 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 8.1 K/9. 

The home side counters with the volatile Aaron Nola (10-10, 3.71) who gave up three runs over five innings in a no-decision against the Nationals on Thursday. 

Over his last four starts spanning 23.1 innings of work, Nola has posted a 7.33 ERA. 

I’ll point out as well that Miami is 26-17 (+8.6 units) in its last 43 against clubs with losing records, while Philadelphia is just 16-25 (-4.5 units) in its last 41 in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Marlins.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

I had a play on the Orioles last night and they’d suffer a horrible bottom of the ninth loss. While I’m not one to normally “flip-flop” on a team from night to night, MLB is different than all other sports in that each contest much be looked at individually because of the starting pitchers.

And that’s the case here, as I look for Marcus Stroman to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart today and for the Jays to ultimately build off yesterday’s come from behind victory.

The visitors hand the ball to Kevin Gausman (10-10, 4.99 ERA) who most recently was rocked for five runs over three innings in a loss to the Yanks on Thursday. 

Gausman’s strikeout numbers are decent, but to go along with his poor 4.99 ERA he also sports a crummy 1.59 WHIP. 

Stroman (11-7, 3.18) comes in off an outing to forget against Boston, allowing four runs while striking out six over six innings against Detroit on Friday. All of the damage though came on a grand slam to Nick Castellanos. 

I’m not reading too much into that outing, as previous to that Stroman had held the opposition to two or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts. 

A date at home is just what the doctor ordered to get back on track as Stroman has an elite 2.76 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

I think Stroman is the correct call here. Other than the one mistake to Castellanos in his last outing, Stroman was otherwise perfect. He’s been consitent all year and he’s consistently been at his best at home. Toronto is looking to gain positive momentum to the end the season so that it has something to build off for next year. All things considered, I believe this is a great price. Play on the Jays.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Tampa Bay Rays (1:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Jaime Garcia (5-9, 4.43 ERA) who is 0-2 with a ballooned 5.11 ERA in five starts with New York this season.

Note that he’s just 4-4 with a pedestrian 4.52 ERA on the road this year as well.

The home side counters with ace Chris Archer (9-9, 4.00) who comes in off an outing to forget against Boston on Friday, allowing eight runs off nine hits while striking out five over three innings.

Those types out starts though have been few and far between for Archer this year, who will look to get back on track at home where he’s so far posted a respectable 3.30 ERA.

I’ll point out that New York is just 1-2 (-1.5 units) in its last three after scoring one run or less, while Tampa Bay is 3-1 (+2.7 units) in its last four after holding an opponent to one run or less. 

I like the Rays to build off yesterday’s 2-1 win and to find a way to get the job done tonight as well with what I believe to be the far superior starter backing them on the hill. Play on Tampa Bay.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (10:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Justin Verlander (11-8, 3.74 ERA) who gave up one run off six hits while striking out seven over six innings in a 3-1 win over the Mariners on Tuesday. 

Verlander looked sharp in his first start for his new team and he’ll now be looking to improve upon his very respectable 7-5, 3.53 ERA record in all “night” contests. 

The home side counters with Garrett Richards (0-0, 1.13) who earned a no-decision in his first start back from the DL on Tuesday, holding the A’s to one run over 3.1 innings of work. 

Richards was on a pitch count in that one and he’ll be on a count in this one as well. 

Additionally I’ll point out that LA is just 33-39 (-5.7 units) this year following a victory, while Houston is 35-20 (+4.2 units) following a loss.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Astros.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Jon Gray (7-4, 4.07 ERA) who comes in off a big win over the Dodgers on Thursday, allowing one run off four hits over six innings of work. 

Gray has been better of late, but note that he’s still a pedestrian 3-3 with a 4.56 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Taijuan Walker (9-7, 3.33) who gave up one run off four hits over six innings in a victory over the Dodgers on Wednesday. 

Walker has won three straight outings while posting a tiny 0.79 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 21/8 K/W over his last 22.2 innings of work. 

Note that Walker has excelled in all “night” contests as well this season by going 8-4 with a 3.54 ERA.

I’ll point out as well that the Rockies are just 45-46 (-1.3 units) this year in all night games, while Arizona is 59-40 (+14.8 units) in the same position.

All things considered, I feel this is a great price. Play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Dylan Bundy (13-9, 4.12 ERA), who comes in off an outing to forget against the Yankees on Monday, allowing five runs over four innings. It was Bundy’s only loss since the All Star break, as prior to that he’d posted five straight quality efforts with a 2.00 ERA and 45/6 K/W spanning 36 frames of work. 

Note that Bundy has been sharp in all “night” games as well going 10-6 with a 3.32 ERA. 

The home side counters with Joe Biagini (3-10, 5.29) who gave up five runs off six hits over 3.1 innings in a loss to the Red Sox on Wednesday. 

Biagini has for the most part been an absolute disaster this year and note that he’s been at his worst in this postion as well, going just 2-6 with a 5.51 ERA at home and only 3-6 with a 5.70 ERA in all night contests.

Additionally I’ll point out that Baltimore is a solid 32-26 (+8.4 units) against the division this season, while Toronto is just 26-38 (-14.6 units) against the division. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Orioles.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the New York Yankees (7:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch, both on the mound and at the plate, than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to CC Sabathia (11-5, 3.91 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against Baltimore on Tuesday, giving up five runs off eight hits while striking out three over 5.1 innings in what turned out to be a fortunate no-decision. 

Sabathia has admittedly been scuffling of late, but note that he’s been at his best on the road this year by going 7-3 with a 3.25 ERA.

The home side counters with Jake Odorizzi (8-7, 4.58) who comes in off a gem against the Twins on Tuesday, going 6.2 scoreless to earn the victory. 

I’m not reading too much into one decent outing though, as the southpaw had been shelled for 13 runs spanning 12.1 innings over his previous three starts (note that he’s a poor 4-5 with a 4.71 ERA at home this season as well.)

Sabathia is the correct call here as I look for his strong track record of road consistency to get carried over here. All things considered, I think this is a great price. Play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Boston Red Sox (1:35 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to the Alex Cobb (10-9, 3.64 ERA) who has looked very good of late, giving up one run or fewer in five of his last eight starts. 

Note though that if Cobb has had one clear weakness this year, it’s clearly been his perfomance on the road where he’s just 4-5 with a poor 4.91 ERA.

The home side counters with Rick Porcello (9-16, 4.67) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Blue Jays on Monday, giving up seven runs off ten hits over 5.1 innings. 

Porcello has been trading good starts with bad of late, but he’s consistently been at his best in all “day” games this season with a very respectable 2.52 ERA.

Cobb has been the victim of poor run support all season and all signs point to that once again being a major problem for the hard-throwing right-hander. Lay the price, play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the New York Mets (1:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to beileve. 

The visitors hand the ball to Sal Romano (4-6, 4.62 ERA) who has looked better of late, posting a 2.45 ERA over his last four outings. Romano has been hit or miss this season though overall and is just 2-3 with a 4.58 ERA in all “day” games.

The home side counters with ace Jacob DeGrom (14-9, 3.65) who looks to rebound off his worst start of the year, getting shelled for nine runs off ten hits over 3.2 innings in a loss to Philadelphia on Tuesday. 

DeGrom has been scuffling of late, but will now look to “right the ship” at home, a place where he’s posted a very respectable 3.39 ERA at (also note that he has a 3.52 ERA in all day games.)

The moral of this play is that I’m not reading too much into Romano’s last performance and I’m also not over-reacting to DeGrom’s most recent “dud.” 

I like DeGrom to get back on track at home and outduel his young counterpart. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Chicago Cubs (8:05 EST).

I like the Cubs to find a way to take Game 1 of this series.

I had a play on Chicago last night and momentum gets carried over here.

The visitors hand the ball to Jimmy Nelson (11-6, 3.59 ERA) who gave up two earned runs off four hits over 6.2 innings in a victory over the Dodgers on Sunday. 

Note though that the win was his first in five starts. Nelson is putting together a strong overall season, but if he’s had one weakness it’s been his play on the road where he’s posted a pedestrian 4.56 ERA.

The home side counters with John Lackey (11-10, 4.74) who gave up three hits over seven scoreless innings while striking out five in a victory over ATL on Friday. 

Lackey has struggled at times this year and looked brilliant in others, but does own a respectable 3.99 ERA at home. 

I like Lackey to build off his latest performance and I expect him to get the better of Nelson on the road. Lay the price, play on the Cubs.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST).

I don’t think that home field can be overlooked as a serious factor working in favor of Drew Pomeranz tonight.

The visitors hand the ball to Chris Archer (9-8, 3.76 ERA) who had his last start cut short due to a minor shoulder injury. Archer gave up back-to-back home runs and threw eight total pitches before being lifted. 

It’s hard to say too many negative things about Archer, but he if he’s had one small area of weakness then it’s definitely been his play on the road where he’s posted a pedestrian 4.56 ERA.

Pomeranz (14-5, 3.36) gave up four runs off eight hits and two walks while stirking out five over 5.1 innings in a loss to New York on Saturday. 

To go along with his solid 3.36 ERA, Pomeranz also sports a sharp 1.38 WHIP and 9.4 K/9 (has been at his best at home as well by going 7-2 with a 3.26 ERA.)

Additionally I’ll point out that Tampa Bay is just 16-22 (-5 units) this year against southpaws, while Boston is 63-44 (+8.9 units) against right-handed starters.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry