My 9* NL Rivalry Game of the Month is on the SD Padres at 10:10 ET.

The Padres have lost eight of ten, including two in a row. That includes a 5-2 loss here to the Dodgers in yesterday's series Opener.

The Dodgers have won nine of their last ten. 

One of these teams enters Wednesday's contest feeling pretty good about itself. 

The other, not so much.

I believe this one does finally set up well for the desperate Padres though.

The defending champs hand the ball to Walker Buehler (13-2, 2.11 ERA), who gave up two runs over seven innings in a win over the Mets on Friday. 

Difficult to say anything negative at all about Buehler, so I won't bother.

I just feel that San Diego starter Blake Snell (6-5, 4.82), will be able to match Buehler inning for inning.

Snell is 1-0 with a 2.35 ERA in three starts against the Dodgers already this year (and in 28 1/3 innings against them lifetime, he's posted a tiny 2.30 ERA.)

Look for the revenge-minded and desperate Padres to finally deliver a quality victory (and at a great price!)

The play is San Diego.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:07 ET.

I've played the White Sox over the first two games of this series. The Jays won the first game (so I lost with that one), while the Sox then bounced back with a 5-2 victory on Tuesday.

In the finale of this AL series on Wednesday, I like the home side to bounce back and answer.

The White Sox hand the ball to Lucas Giolito (9-9, 3.77 ERA), who is off a no-decision to the Rays on Friday, allowing two runs over seven innings. 

Giolito has been sharp since the All Star break, but I simply feel he's in the wrong place at the wrong time today vs. this revenge-minded Jays side.

Toronto counters with Robbie Ray (9-5, 2.79), who gave up on e run and struck out 11 over eight innings in an unfortunate no-decision to the Tigers on Friday. Over 145.1 innings of work the right-handers owns a sharp 178/36 K/W.

I like Ray to come out with a chip on his shoulder here after getting a no-decision for his superb effort last time out. 

Toronto is 8-2 in its last ten in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it was held to two or less runs. Expect this strong trend to continue on Wednesday.

Great value here on the hungry Blue Jays.

Good luck...Larry

The 3rd pick in my STP is a 9* on the Chi White Sox at 7:07 ET.

I had a play on Chicago, and while that one came up short, I believe the hungry White Sox will rally and find a way to bounce back here North of the border on Tuesday.

The visitors hand the ball to Dylan Cease (9-6, 4.06 ERA), who allowed three runs and struck out five over six innings on Thursday against the Athletics. He received a no-decision, but it was his third quality start in his las five outings. Over 130.2 innings of work, Cease has posted 170 K's and 53 walks.

He'll be opposed by Jose Berrios (1-1, 3.86), who is also off a no-decision in his last trip to the hill, allowing three runs over five innings against the Nationals on Wednesday. So far he owns a 19/8 K/W over 21.1 innings since coming over from Minnesota.

Despite the setback last night, the White Sox are still 9-4 in their last 13 on the road against Toronto in this building.

There's no doubt that Berrios is tough, but Chicago is no stranger to his performances after he spent so long in the AL Central. 

I'm banking on Cease and the White Sox getting back into the winners circle here.

Great value on the undervalued underdog.

Good luck...Larry

The 2nd pick of my STP is an 8* the Phi Phillies at 7:05 ET.

The Phillies are healthy. They haven't been playing great. They need to start winning games immediately though if they have any shot at a Wildcard.

They're off a 7-5 win at San Diego on Sunday night and I say they carry that momentum over here.

The Rays continue to overachieve, as they have a slew of injuries right now. I say this finally catches up to them this evening on the road in this interleague matchup.

The visiting side hands the ball to Drew Rasmussen (1-1, 3.64 ERA), who is in the rotation today out of necessity. He has bounced around in many different roles. I simply feel he's in over his head here on the road against this desperate Phillies side.

The home side counters with Ranger Suarez (5-4, 1.47), who gave up three runs and struck out two over 4.2 innings in a 4-2 loss to the Diamondbacks on Wednesday. He's 4-0 with a 1.37 ERA at home this season.

All things considered, I would call this the very definition of "great line value."

The play is Philadelphia.

Good luck...Larry

The 1st pick of my STP is a 7* on the Oak A's at 3:37 ET.

The A's can't afford to lose any more games. They've lost seven of ten, including three in a row.

That includes the opener of this series with Seattle as well by a score of 5-3 yesterday.

The Mariners are now only two games back of Oakland in the Wildcard race.

Enough is enough though as far as the A's are concerned. I think the home side will dig deep and finally get off the schneid this afternoon though.

The visitors go with Chris Flexen (10-5, 3.65 ERA), who continued his strong rookie season against the Rangers on Thursday, allowing two runs while striking out five over seven innings.

Flexen has been fantastic. One thing I'll point out though, while he does sport a great 4-1 win/loss record on the road, his ERA goes from 2.72 at home, to a poor 5.01 away from friendly confines.

The home side counters with Cole Irving (9-11, 3.57), who gave up three runs over six innings in a win over the White Sox on Thursday. 

Irvin hasn't been at his best of late, but I don't think there's any reason to hit the panic button. 

Oakland is 7-2 in its last nine after three or more consecutive losses in a row. Expect this strong trend to continue here in this crucial contest.

Lay the price, the play is the A's.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (AL West) is on the Sea Mariners at 9:40 ET.

This is an interesting series and matchup. Marco Gonzalez is flying "under the radar" here though, and while most of the public will likely back the home side Athletics at this price, it's my opinion that the value actually lies on the visiting side today.

Oakland is now 3.5 games back of Houston in the West, while the Mariners sit three games back of the Athletics. 

Seattle has to be feeling confident it can make up ground with Gonzalez (5-5, 4.10 ERA) on the mound, as he's gone 2-0 with a minuscule 0.67 ERA in four August starts. He's unbeaten over his last seven trips to the hill, going 4-0 with a 1.87 ERA since early July.

That included a home win over the A's in late July. He's 6-3 with a 3.77 ERA in 13 career appearances against Oakland.

The A's counter with the volatile Paul Blackburn (0-1, 5.06), who is in the rotation out of necessity with Chris Bassitt now on the injured list. 

Blackburn is 1-1 with a 7.20 ERA in two career starts against Seattle.

Oakland's bullpen was terrible over the weekend in losses in San Francisco. I say Seattle takes advantage.

And with the clearly superior starter on the mound, there's no doubt in my mind that we're definitely getting great value on Seattle here.

And that's the play, the Mariners.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chi White Sox at 7:07 ET.

Both teams have been scuffling. Both teams are desperate for victories.

Each has plenty of issues to work on. 

The bottom line for this pick though, is that I think we're getting great value here on Lance Lynn the veteran.

Lynn (10-3, 2.26 ERA) was ejected from his latest outing against the A's on Wednesday. He gave up one run and struck out four over four innings. The umpires wanted to check his gear for foreign substances, and Lynn lost it and threw his gear out onto the field, which led to the ejection.

It was the first such thing to ever happen to him. Note that Lynn is 4-1 with a 2.50 ERA on the road this season.

The home side counters with Alek Manoah (5-2, 3.34), who has been reinstated off the bereavement list. Manoah has been great in his rookie season, but will this off-field, real World distraction throw a monkey wrench into his current form/chemistry?

As I say, I trust Lynn the veteran here. Lynn's throwing a chip on his shoulder as well after the most recent ejection. 

Manoah could still be mentally distracted here. 

Great value on Lynn and the hard-hitting White Sox on Monday night.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Sunday Night Game of the Month is on the LA Angels at 7:10 ET.

It's not the most exciting Sunday night matchup, but I really like the way this one sets up for the revenge-minded Angels, who will be eager to avoid the three-game series sweep.

The visitors hand the ball to Jose Suarez (5-6, 3.88 ERA), who gave up two runs and struck out six over five innings in a loss to the Yankees on Monday. Suarez has struggled of late, but he has to be feeling confident here, as note that he's 0-3 with a 5.68 ERA at home, while going 5-3 with a 3.07 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Cal Quantrill (3-2, 3.24), who gave up three runs off eight hits over five innings in what turned out to be a no-decision to the Twins.

Quantrill's been sharp. It's difficult to say anything negative about him. I'm not going to bother. I simply feel that he's in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

I believe that Suarez can match Qunatrill inning for innings, and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the hungry and undervalued underdog.

LA is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge back-to-back road losses against an opponent.

Look for that strong trend to continue here.

The play is the Angels.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* 'Battle 4 the Bay' Part 2 is on the SF Giants at 4:07 ET.

The Giants came from behind to knock off the Atheltics last night. Oakland won the first game of this cross state rivalry.

However, I think this one does set up well for the visiting side, who I expect to get an early lead in this one, and then never look back.

The visitors hand the ball to Logan Webb (7-3, 2.92 ERA), who is off a win over the Mets on Tuesday, going eight innings and allowing two runs and sriking out eight. He's now struck out at least eight over his last three starts and he owns a sharp 1.64 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in that span.

The A's counter with Frankie Montas (9-9, 4.04), who gave up three runs off eight hits with three walks over five innings in a loss to the White Sox on Monday. Overall Montas has been good this year and starts like that have been few and far between.

Note though that he's just 4-6 with a 4.42 ERA at home this season.

I think Webb is the correct call here. Recent form is an important factor that I always take into consideration when judging starting pitching and in my opinion, Webb is going to get the job done here.

Lay the short price, the play is San Francisco.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Series 'Rubber Match' is on the Chi White Sox at 1:10 ET.

The White Sox won 7-5 in extra innings in the opener of this series, before then falling here 8-4 yesterday.

I like the way this one sets up for Reynaldo Lopez and the visiting side on Sunday afternoon though.

Lopez (2-0, 1.08 ERA) has been fantastic in filling in for Carlos Rodon, who is out with injury. So far he's gone eight scoreless frames, allowing just two hits while striking out eight.

He'll be opposed by confirmed "gas can" Chris Archer (0-1, 6.23), who has gotten the call back to the big leagues after a stint on the injured list and couple re-hab starts with Triple-A Durham. 

Archer has been recalled out of necessity. The bottom line is I don't trust Archer at all, and he'll be under a "short leash" anyways.

Considering all of the above information, I really do feel we're getting a great price here on Chicago.

And that's the play!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* 'Battle 4 the Bay' is on the SF Giants at 4:07 ET.

I had a play on Oakland last night, but I think the league-leading Giants will respond on Saturday.

The visiting side hands the ball to Kevin Gausman (12-5, 2.40 ERA), who gave up three runs and posted seven strikeouts over five innings in a win over the Mets on Monday. 

It was his third straight victory. Gausman had a poor July (for his lofty standards), but he's rebounded in August with three straight wins, striking out 20 over 16 frames and conceding just five runs in that span (also note that he's 6-2 with a 1.56 ERA on the road.) 

The A's counter with Sean Manaea (8-8, 3.77), who has been terrible in August, going 0-2 with a ballooned 12.27 ERA over three starts. 

The current form of these starters makes San Francisco the correct call here in my opinion.

I love Gausman in this matchup, the play is the Giants.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Chi White Sox at 1:10 ET.

I had a play on the White Sox last night. I think they'll find a way to get the job done again here on Saturday afternoon.

Chicago hands the ball to Dallas Keuchel (8-6, 4.48 ERA), gave up two runs and two walks and struck out two over five innings in a victory over the dangerous Athletics on Monday.

It's been a grind for Keuchel in the second half, but this was a big step in the right direction. I think he carries that momentum over here.

The home side counters with Luis Patino (2-3, 4.73), who gave up two runs and two hits to go along with five walks over just three innings in no-decision to the light-hitting Twins on Sunday.

I think Keuchel is the correct call here. The Twins are also 7-3 in their last ten road games as an underdog in the +115 to +135 range.

Great value here on the hungry visiting side.

Good luck...Larry

The 3rd Pick of my STP is an 8* on the Oak A's at 9:40 ET.

I think we're getting great value here on the hungry home side which just broke a four-game slide last night with a 5-4 victory at the White Sox.

Conversely, after a long stretch of winnings, the league-leading Giants are desinted for a bit of a mental letdown here in this interleague contest. as their three-game win streak was just snapped in a 6-2 loss at home to the Mets in their latest action.

The Giants hand the ball to Alex Wood (10-3, 4.14 ERA), while the home side counters with James Kaprielian (6-4, 3.33)

It's a very even pitching matchup, but I like the way it sets up for Oakland from a situational stand point.

The A's are also 8-2 in their last ten interleague home games as the underdog.

As stated off the top, great value here on Oakland.

Good luck...Larry

The 1st Pick of my STP is an 8* on the Chi White Sox at 7:10 ET.

Both teams hungry for a win here.

I think the White Sox' advantage with this starting pitching matchup will be the difference in the end though.

I like how this sets up for Lucas Giolito (9-9, 3.83 ERA), who gave up three runs over four innings, despite also striking out eight in a loss to the Yankees on Sunday. New York is crushing the ball right now, so I'm giving Giolito a "mulligan" on that one.

Note that he's 5-3 with a 3.80 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with the volatile Michael Wacha (2-4, 5.91), who was shelled for seven runs off 11 hits over five innings in a 12-0 loss to the Twins on Saturday.

Wacha has been regressing for a while, but he's been particularly poor of late, allowing 30 hits and 18 earned runs over his last 14 frames of work.

Yes, the Rays are tough at home. But this is a major starting pitching mismatch.

I'm laying the short price, the play is the White Sox.

Good luck...Larry

The 2nd Pick of my STP is a 9* on the LA Angels at 7:10 ET.

Cleveland is stumbling towards the finish line. 

LA though is now 62-61 and looking to build on a three-game win skein.

These teams are moving in opposite directions.

This is a starting pitching mismatch as well.

The Angels hand the ball to Jaime Barria (2-1, 4.71 ERA), who is off a crummy outing against the Astros on Saturday, allowing three runs over three innings. He'll be feeling confident here though, as he faced Cleveland earlier in the season in relief, allowing one hit over four scoreless innings. 

Cleveland counters with confirmed gas-can Sam Hentges (1-4, 7.95), who allowed three runs over two innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Tigers on Saturday.

LA has the momentum and the superior starter on the hill.

In my opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value."

The play is the Angels.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the StL Cardinals at 7:45 ET.

I had a play on the Cardinals last night. They lost 2-0. This is a big series for both teams, but more so for St. Louis, which now sits 11 games back of the Brewers in the division.

The Cardinals are gunning for a Wildcard spot and obviously won't be lacking for motivation today. I like the revenge-minded home side to dig deep here and find a way to deliver.

The visitors go with Freddy Peralta (9-3, 2.26 ERA), who gave up two runs over five innings in the first game of a double-header against the Cubs. Hard to find any fault with Peralta, he's been "on point" all season. I simply feel that he's in the wrong place at the wrong time today.

St. Louis counters with Jack Flaherty (9-1, 2.65), who gave up only two hits over six shutout innings in a win over the Royals on Friday.

It was his first appearance since May 31st and he didn't look like he missed a single day. Over 68 innings this year, Flaherty now owns a 72/20 K/W. He's 4-0 with a 1.44 ERA at home.

I like Flaherty and the revenge-minded, much "hungrier" home side.

The play is St. Louis.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Rout is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:05 ET.

Boston lost both games of the double-header here in New York yesterday, falling 5-3 and 2-0. 

Suffice it to say, I think the hungry visiting side will dig deep here and find a way to win on Wednesday.

The Sox swept the Orioles at home previous to that. 

New York has won five in a row. A letdown does seem imminent at some point, especially with the lowly Twins coming to town for a four games series tomorrow.

I think Boston has the superior starting pitcher on the hill as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Nick Pivetta (9-5, 4.20 ERA), who enters off a win over Baltimore in Friday, allowing one run over six innings. Over 124.1 innings of work he now owns a 1.25 WHIP and 139/52 K/W through 23 starts. 

He's also been great on the road so far, going 5-3 with a 3.09 ERA.

He'll be opposed by the volatile Andrew Heaney (7-8, 5.78), who was shelled for seven runs over five innings in a loss to the White Sox on Thursday. He actually received a no-decsion for his poor effort, despite also allowing three home runs.

Finally, note that the Red Sox are 7-3 in their last ten in trying to revenge back-to-back losses to an opponent.

I like the revenge-minded visiting side to deliver today.

The play is Boston.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Getaway Day Game of the Week is on the SD Padres at 3:10 ET.

The Padres aren't playing well right now. They've lost six of their last ten, including the first two games of this series.

Enough is enough!

Neither of these starting pitchers instills a ton of confidence, but for a number of different reasons, I like San Diego to dig deep here, to avoid the three-game series sweep, and to finally get back on the winning track with a convincing effort.

As I said, the starting pitching matchup leaves everything to be desired. San Diego hands the ball to the newly acquired Jake Arrieta (5-11, 6.88 ERA), while the home side counters with Chi Chi Gonzalez (3-6, 6.06).

I give the slight nod to Arrieta here though, not only because it's his first start for his new team, but also because Gonzalez is making his first trip to the mound after being ont he COVID 19 list (is expected to make only 70 to 80 pitches today.)

Arrieta was brought in out of necessity. He's here to just eat innings until Yu Darvish and others can return.

However, this is a big opportunity for the veteran and his team will be ultra focussed to break its current slide as well.

Considering all of the above information, I absolutely feel that the Padres could/should in fact be much larger favorites in this spot.

Lay the short price, the play is San Diego.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Oak A's at 8:10 ET.

After losing three of its last four, including two in a row (including yesterday's series opener here by a score of 5-2), I like the A's to get back on track with their "ace" on the mound.

The White Sox snapped a two-game skid with yesterday's win. They've been inconsistent of late though, with just two wins in their last six games. 

The visitors hand the ball to Chris Bassitt (12-3, 3.06 ERA), who went six scoreless in a win over the Indians on Thursday, striking out six. 

He's now worked into at least the sixth inning in eight of his last tne starts, a period in which he's posted an elite 62/12 K/W over 63.1 frames of work.

Bassitt has been a beast on the road as well, going 8-0 with a 3.47 ERA.

He'll be opposed by Reynaldo Lopez (1-0, 1.35), who makes his second turn through the rotation for the injured Carlos Rodon. He struck out four over three scoreless innings vs. the Twins last week. 

Last year he was 1-2 with an 8.39 ERA at home. I say regression is in order for Lopez tonight.

All things considered, I actually believe that the A's should/could in fact be favored by a lot more in this spot.

Great value on Oakland.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the StL Cards at 7:45 ET.

This is a big series. This is a big opening game. These teams have split their season series to this point, but St. Louis sits ten games back of the first placed Brewers in the playoff race.

Both teams have been playing really well lately as well. St. Louis was just 6-0 on its most current road trip through Pittsburgh and Kansas City.

Beating up on the Royals and Pirates is one thing, but doing the same to the Brewers is quite another. Milwaukee has gone 6-1 in its last seven.

As I say, clearly these teams are evenly matched right now. These starting pitchers are evenly matched too.

Corbin Burnes (7-4, 2.23 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors. He's given up one or zero runs in seven of his last eight trips to the hill.

Burnes dominated the Cards in his lone start vs. them this season, but for his career he's a pedestrian 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA in nine appearances, including six starts, against them. 

Adam Wainwright (11-6, 3.27) blanked the Pirates in his last start, striking out seven in the complete game effort. He's allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. He faced Milwaukee once this season as well and dominated, holding it to one run over five innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision.

Wainwright though has 'owned' the Brewers throughout his career, going 18-11 with a 2.48 ERA in 45 appearances and 38 starts. 

St. Louis is the "hungrier" team today. It is also playing its best baseball of the season right now (note that the Cardinals have posted four or more runs in 11 consecutive games.)

Give me the hungry home side in a slight upset on Tuesday night.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Division Dominator (NL East) is on the Mia Marlins at 7:10 ET.

Atlanta's been playing well, but I think it finally has a letdown here.

The Braves have won eight of ten and four in a row. That includes a 12-6 victory here in yesterday's series opener.

Previous to yesterday's setback though, the Marlins had won four straight. Miami won't be in the playoffs, but it plays better at home and I think it offers great value to bounce back here and pull off the slight upset on Tuesday night.

The Braves hand the ball to Huascar Ynoa (4-2, 3.02 ERA), who enters off the injured list to make this start. In in his final rehab start he struck out seven over 4.2 innings, but he also allowed three runs off four hits. 

The rookie has been better than expected for Atlanta. But he's coming off the injured list and a questionable re-hab start. He's also just 1-2 with a 4.69 ERA on the road.

This one spells disaster for ATL bettors in my opinion.

Because the Marlins counter with ace Sandy Alcantara (7-10, 3.52), who enters off a gem against the Padres on Wednesday, aloowing no runs over seven innings while striking out seven. 

Previous to that he got shelled for ten runs at Coors Field, but note that Alcantara owns a 2.60 ERA at home, compared to 4.43 on the road.

The Marlins are also 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they conceded ten or more runs in.

I love Alcantara in this spot. The play is the Marlins.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL West) is on the SD Padres at 8;40 ET.

The Padres snapped a four-game slide with an 8-2 win at Arizona last night.

San Diego can't afford to take the foot off the gas though, or look past any opponent. I say the Padres find a way to win here at Coors Field.

The Padres hand the ball to Ryan Weathers (4-5, 4.72 ERA), who is off an outing to forget against the Marlins on Wednesday, allowing six runs (including three home runs) over 4.2 innings. 

The silver lining was that he struck out seven.

Weathers has hit a tough stretch, but he draws a favorable opponent here (albeit in an unfavorable park.) 

One last thing about Weathers though is that he's 2-4 with a 6.61 ERA at home and 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA on the road.

And he'll be opposed by Antonio Senzatela (2-9, 4.71), who gave up three runs off nine hits over six innings in a loss to Houston on Wednesday. 

It was his ninth straight start in which he's conceded at least seven hits. 

This is an important series for the Padres, who are trying to catch the Giants and Dodgers, while also holding on to their current Wildcard spot. 

Colorado is just 1-5 in its last six in the underdog role. Expect that trend to continue here.

I like San Diego to strike first in this series on Monday night.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Signature 37-Club Play is on the Tor Blue Jays at 4:10 ET.

Toronto has some work to do. It's 5-5 in its last ten.

It's now lost three straight, including both games to open this series in Seattle.

It's scorching in the Pacific Northwest right now, but the Jays' big bats have gone quiet. I say that ends today though. Toronto has the superior starting pitcher in this matchup and it's much more motivated to break out of this scuffling stretch.

Considering these motivational factors working in its favor, I absolutely believe that Toronto is undervalued by the bookmakers in this spot, and that makes this pick a prime candidate for my 37 CLUB PLAY release.

The Jays turn to Steven Matz (9-7, 4.28 ERA), who is off a loss in a double-header format to the Angels on Tuesday, allowing four runs (two earned) and striking out five over five innings. 

There were plenty of silver linings. It was a third straight start he's avoided giving up a home run and he's now posted a 3.45 ERA over his last six outings (one last thing to mention about Matz, is that he's excelled in all "day" games, going 4-2 with a 2.68 ERA, compared to 5-5 with a 5.20 ERA in all night contests.) 

He'll be opposed by Logan Gilbert (5-3, 4.05), who is off a no-decision to the Rangers on TUesday, allowing two runs over six innings. 

Gilbert did decently against a terrible Rangers' line-up, but he's a poor 1-2 with a 4.79 ERA at home this season. 

Gilbert's been OK. Not great. He's in the wrong place at the wrong time today for sure.

Finally note, the Jays are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge two straight losses against an opponent.

For all the reasons listed above, the play is Toronto.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* MLB "1st Pitch" is on the Phi Phillies at 1:05 ET.

The Phillies won here 6-1 yesterday. I say they find a way to clinch the series this afternoon with their "ace" on the mound.

Aaron Nola (7-6, 4.35 ERA), has had much better campaigns. Nola has always been a "Jeckyll and Hyde" hurler, being much better at home than on the road, but he's been particularly poor away from friendly confines this season.

Nola is 3-4 with a 5.59 ERA on the road, while he's 4-2 with a 2.99 ERA at home. 

The Phillies themselves play much better overall in front of the home town crowd as well, as they're 25-32 on the road this season, and 36-24 on the road.

The Reds have started to slide back down into mediocrity again, as they've now lost four of their last five.

And I don't think that Sonny Gray (4-6, 4.40) is the answer that the Reds need right now. Gray is off a good outing against the Braves on Tuesday, but he's been consistently inconsistent all season (especially in all "day" contests, where he's a poor 1-3 with a 5.01 ERA.)

Considering the talent gap on the mound today, I truly believe that this line could/should in fact be much larger.

Lay the price, the play is Philadelphia.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Sea Mariners at 10:10 ET.

I had a free play on the Mariners last night. Seattle managed to secure the 3-2 victory and now I think it'll find a way to deliver again on Saturday night.

At first glance, this starting pitching matchup looks even. But the recent form of Seattle starter Yusei Kikuchi 

Hyun Jin Ryu (11-5, 3.62 ERA) is off a fortunate no-decision to th eRed Sox on Sunday, allowing seven runs off ten hits over three innings. 

Ryu has put together another solid campaign, but there's no doubt he's been regressing the last two months. He's posted a pedestrian 4.14 ERA since the start of the July, a stretch which has seen him pitch four superb games, and three terrible ones.

Kikuchi (7-6, 3.73) has been solid all year as well. He's been hot since the All Star game. Most recently he went five scoreless and struck out six in an unfortunate no-decision to New York last weekend. Since the Mid-Summer classic he's posted a 2.86 ERA and 1.41 WHIP spanning 22 innings of work.

Both teams are pushing for a playoff spot. I don't think that the home field advantage can be overlooked here either.

Fantastic value here in my opinion on Kikuchi and the home side.

The play is Seattle.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MLB Grand Slam is on the Chi White Sox at 7:10 ET.

The White Sox won in dramatic fashion in the bottom of the ninth in the Field Of Dreams Game over New York two nights ago, and I believe they'll carry that momentum over here.

Jameson Taillon (7-4, 3.82 ERA) gets the nod for the Yankees. He's coming off a good outing against the Royals, giving up one run over six innings. 

Taillon has been excellent over the last two months, posting a 1.25 ERA since the start of July. 

I'll point out though, while he's 4-1 with a 3.23 ERA in front of the home town crowd, he's a pedestrian 3-3 with a 4.67 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Dylan Cease (9-6, 3.99), who gave up three runs over five innings, while striking out ten in a win over the Cubs in his last outing. Cease has been locked in since the All Star break, posting 38 strikeouts over his last 32.2 innings of work.

And there's no question at all that he's been better at home than on the road, going 4-4 with a 5.89 ERA away from friendly confines, and 5-2 with a 2.21 ERA here in Chicago.

I like Cease to continue his progression here and for Chicago to build off its big Field Of Dreams victory.

Lay the short price, the play is Chicago.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the StL Cardinals at 8:10 ET.

St. Louis has won five of its last six, including three in a row. I say it keeps the momentum rolling here in this favorable matchup.

Kansas City is just 2-4 in its last six, and it's coming off a 5-2 loss here against the Yanks in its most recent action.

The visitors hand the ball to Jack Flaherty (8-1, 2.90 ERA), who has finally been cleared to return to action after straining his oblique in late May. He has to be feeling confident here, as he's 3-0 with a 0.95 ERA in three career outings against the hapless Royals.

Mike Minor (8-10, 5.39) counters for KC. He's coming off a loss to these very Cardinals in St. Louis last week, allowing four runs off seven hits over five innings. 

Minor is 2-3 with a ballooned 6.11 ERA lifetime against the Cardinals. 

KC is just 15-37 in its last 53 home games agaisnt St. Louis, while the Cardinals are 4-1 in their last five on the road.

I think a rested Flaherty is the correct call here.

Lay the price, the play is St. Louis.

Good luck...Larry

10 ET.

St. Louis has won five of its last six, including three in a row. I say it keeps the momentum rolling here in this favorable matchup.

Kansas City is just 2-4 in its last six, and it's coming off a 5-2 loss here against the Yanks in its most recent action.

The visitors hand the ball to Jack Flaherty (8-1, 2.90 ERA), who has finally been cleared to return to action after straining his oblique in late May. He has to be feeling confident here, as he's 3-0 with a 0.95 ERA in three career outings against the hapless Royals.

Mike Minor (8-10, 5.39) counters for KC. He's coming off a loss to these very Cardinals in St. Louis last week, allowing four runs off seven hits over five innings. 

Minor is 2-3 with a ballooned 6.11 ERA lifetime against the Cardinals. 

KC is just 15-37 in its last 53 home games agaisnt St. Louis, while the Cardinals are 4-1 in their last five on the road.

I think a rested Flaherty is the correct call here.

Lay the price, the play is St. Louis.

Good luck...Larry

The 2nd pick of my STP is an 8* on the Cle Indians at 7:10 ET.

Neither of these clubs will be in the playoffs. 

But after sweeping the Orioles earlier this week (I had a play on Detroit in all three games!), I believe the Tigers are finally destined for a letdown here.

Cleveland won't be lacking for motivation after three straight losses. 

Zach Plesac (6-4, 4.84 ERA) gets the nod for the visiting side, while the home side counters with Tyler Alexander (2-1, 4.35.)

Alexander is off a win over these very Indians last week, holding them scoreless over five innings. Plesac faced the Tigers and allowed five runs over four innings.

Both Plesac and the Indians play with immediate revenge here.

Note, that despite the uncharacteristically poor outing against Detroit, Plesac still has to be feeling confident here, as he's 3-1 with a 1.82 ERA in six career starts against the Tigers.

Cleveland is 10-6 so far in this season series and I like it to add to that record with a victory on Friday as well.

Lay the short price, the play is the Indians.

Good luck...Larry

The 1st pick of my STP is a 7* on the LA Dodgers at 7:10 ET.

The Dodgers are rolling their way towards the playoffs, but off a 2-1 loss at Philadelphia yesterday, I think they'll bounce back here in this favorable matchup.

The Mets have won three in a row, after losing four straight. In my opinion, a letdown is imminent here.

LA hands the ball to Julio Urias (13-3, 3.41 ERA), who is off a no-decision to the Angels on Saturday, allowing three runs over five innings. 

Urias enters on top form overall though, as he's now allowed four runs or less in eight straight starts. 

The Mets counter with Tyler Megill (1-2, 3.20), who is off a loss to the Phillies on Saturday, allowing four runs over four innings. 

Megill has now allowed four dingers over his last three starts, which has led to an 0-2 record and a ballooned 5.40 ERA over his last 15 innings of work.

LA is 7-2 in its last nine off a road loss as well in which it was held to one or less runs in.

I like LA to bounce back from yesterday's loss in fine fashion here.

Lay the price.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AL Game of the Month is on the Tor Blue Jays at 9:38 ET.

This is the fourth game of a four-game set. The Blue Jays bats are hot right now and I think that trend will continue here.

Toronto lost the first game 6-3, but it's since bounced back to win the next two, 4-0 and 10-2 yesterday.

Jose Berrios (8-5, 3.23 ERA) allowed one run and struck out six in a no-decision to the Red Sox in his last outing. He's allowed just two walks over his last four starts. He's also allowed just one run over his last three outings. 

He'll be opposed by Shohei Ohtani (6-1, 2.93) who gave up one run over six innings in a victory over the Rangers on Wednesday.

These starters are a "wash." Ohtani simply doesn't have an advantage over Berrios here, who enters on top form.

This one comes down to these line-ups, and Toronto's bats have once again woken up.

I like Berrios to easily match Ohtani and for the Jays' sluggers to do the rest.

Lay the short price with confidence, the play is Toronto.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Getaway Day Game of the Month is on the Det Tigers at 4:05 ET.

Break out the brooms gentlemen, because the Tigers are out to sweep this road series in Baltimore this afternoon.

I've been on the Tigers each of the last two games and I think this hot hitting line-up will once again get the job done, despite facing Orioles' ace John Means.

Means (5-3, 2.79 ERA), gave up two runs off eight hits over five innings in what turned out to be a no-decision against the Rays on Friday. It's difficult to say anything negative about Means.

However, it should definitely be noted that he's been much better on the road (4-2, 1.99 ERA), than at home (1-1, 4.50).

Detroit counters with Matt Manning (2-5, 6.33), who gave up six runs over four innings in a 6-1 loss to the Indians on Friday. There were a copule of silver linings for the rookie though, as he kept the ball in the yard and didn't give up a walk. He won't be lacking for motivation, and he does catch a break here facing this weak O's line-up.

Miguel Cabrera will be in the line-up for Detroit today. He's still seeking his 500th home run. Momentum is a very real, tangible factor in sports, and the Tigers enter with a TON of it this afternoon.

Look for Detroit's hot hitting line-up to be the difference maker here.

Great value on the "surging" Tigers.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "Signature" 37 Club Play is on the Det Tigers at 7:05 ET.

I had a play on the Tigers yesterday and they eventually pulled away for the victory. I like the way this one sets up for them as well.

Now granted, Matt Harvey (6-10, 6.13 ERA) has lookeed much better of late, posting a 0.83 ERA over his last 22.1 innings of work.

But does anyone think these sparkling numbers are sustainable? We're talking about Matt Harvey here. They're completely unrealistic and I think a hard crash is imminent here.

And unfortuantely for Harvey, friendly confines is NOT what the doctor ordered to get untracked, as he's actually been better on the road than at home this year (is 4-4 with a 5.68 ERA on the road, and 2-6 with a 6.79 ERA at home.)

Tarik Skubal will try to take advantage. Skubal (7-10, 4.32) has exceeded expectations in his rookie year. He's off a solid outing against the Red Sox, holding them scoreless over five innings.

Dominating the Red Sox' line-up is one thing, and dominating the Orioles' line-up is quite another. Here's a much more manageable matchup for Skubal.

Detroit is also 7-1 in its last eight against teams with a winning percentage under .400, while Baltimore is a woeful 18-37 in its 55 at home.

I look for Detroit to maintain its momentum.

Lay the short price, the play is the Tigers.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Reds at 7:20 ET.

The Reds have now lost two in a row after winning five straight. The Braves have been playing better, as they've won seven of their last ten, including two in a row.

And that includes yesterday's series opener here by a score of 3-2. Suffice it to say, I think that the hungrier Reds will find a way to bounce back here and to avoid a three-game slide at the same time.

The visitors hand the ball to Wade Miley (9-4, 2.75 ERA0, who is off a 10-0 win over the Pirates, holding them scoreless over seven innings, striking out five. 

Miley enters on top form, having posted five quality starts out of his last six trips to the hill, to go along with a 2.06 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 24/16 K/W in that span. 

The Braves counter with Touki Toussaint (1-2, 4.43), who is off a no-decision to the Cardinals after allowing three runs over five innings. He's been adequate. Not great. 

I think Miley has a huge advantage here. The veteran isn't showing any signs of slowing down. In fact, he's gotten progressively stronger as the season has worn on. 

I believe this progression continues here in this favorable matchup.

The play is Cincinnati.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Phi Phillies at 7:05 ET.

The Phillies eight game win streak came to a crashing halt in yesterday's 5-0 setback here to the Dodgers.

Suffice it to say, I think the home side offers great value to bounce back here on Wednesday night.

The defending champs hand the ball to David Price (4-1, 3.53 ERA), who gave up two runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Angels on Friday. Price has been solid in every respect. It's still a small sample size though, and there's no doubt he draws a tough opponent today in a tough road venue.

And he draws a tough opponent in Kyle Gibson as well. Gibson (8-3, 2.79 ERA), who despite a sub-par 12/14 K/W over his last 18.2 innings, has still maintained a tiny 2.41 ERA in that span.

Gibson has struggled against the Dodgers in the past. Many have. Price has done well against the Phillies in the past. Again, many have as well.

That was then, and this is now. Gibson hasn't been perfect this season, but he's quietly putting together one of the best campaigns of his career. Price has so far been up to the task, but I believe that Gibson can match him inning for inning.

And in a scenario like that, I'll take the hungrier, and also revenge-minded home side at a price like this every time.

The play is Philadelphia.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* "Best Bet" Situational Stunner is on the Det Tigers at 7:05 ET.

Neither team is anything to write home about. Each has looked better since the All Star break.

Detroit's probably looked a bit better than Baltimore and this is a starting pitching matchup which I think favors it.

I look for the hungry Tigers to indeed step up here and find a way to post a victory.

The visitors hand the ball to Casey Mize (6-6, 3.57 ERA), who gave up four runs over five innings in a loss to Boston on Wednesday. Previous to that he gave up one run over seven innings to these very Orioles. He's been solid on both the road and at home and I believe he'll easily outduel his counterpart this evening.

Keegan Akin (0-5, 7.16) returns to the Orioles' rotation. Previous to being demoted he posted an 8.14 ERA and 1.83 WHIP over his final 48.2 innings with Baltimore.

Akin's going to get lit up again here against this streaky Detroit hitting line-up in my estimation.

In fact, I'd go so far as to call this the very definition of "great line value."

The play is Detroit!

Good luck...Larry

My 7* Weekly Wipeout is on the Oak A's at 7:10 ET.

Despite being on the road, I think that Oakland could/should in fact be a much larger favorite in this spot.

The A's turn to Sean Manaea (8-7, 3.26 ERA), who is off an uncharacteristically poor outing against the Padres on Tuesday, allowing five runs and striking out four over five innings. 

The silver lining behind the "stinker" was that it was the first time he's given up that many runs since allowing seven all the way back on May 13th to the Red Sox. 

No need to hit the panic button if you're a Manaea fan obviously. Note that he's 4-4 with a highly respectable 2.64 ERA away from friendly confines.

The home side counters with Triston McKenzie (1-5, 5.89), who gave up three runs over five innings in a loss to Toronto on Thursday. It was a decent outing, but note that he's still a pathetic 0-4 with a 6.60 ERA in all night games this year. 

I look for a focussed Manaea to deliver the goods in this bounce back spot.

Lay the price, the play is Oakland.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL Central) is on the StL Cards at 7:05 ET.

I like JA Happ (0-0, 3.60 ERA) to find a way to build off his last outing and post a victory here for his new team in this favorable matchup.

Happ is off a no-decision to the Braves on Wednesday, giving up two runs and four strikeouts over five innings. It was a marked improvement over his final three starts for the Twins which saw him post a combined 11.25 ERA.

Steven Brault (0-0, 2.25), gets the call for the Pirates. He gave up a run over four innings in a no-decision to the Brewers on Wednesday. It was his season debut. He'll be under a leash again today, and I simply don't trust Brault on the road, or this Pirates bullpen down the stretch.

Pittsburgh has lost five in a row and is just 5-15 in its last 20. 

Finally, note that Brault is 1-2 with a 4.95 ERA in 12 appearances against the Cardinals, while Happ is 5-3 with a 2.63 ERA in 11 career starts against the Pirates.

Lay the short price, but expect a decisive outcome.

The play is St. Louis.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* 'Best Bet' Weekend Wipeout is on the SF Giants at 2:10 ET.

The team with the best record in MLB will go for a series victory on the road today. I think the Giants offer great value to do just that after their 9-6 win here last night.

San Fran hands the ball to Johnny Cueto (7-6, 3.83 ERA), who gave up three runs and posted seven strikeouts over five innings in what turned out to be a loss to Arizona on Tuesay. 

Previous to that he held the Dodgers scoreles over six innings. Cueto wasn't at his best last time out, but note that he's definitely been his most consistent in all "day" games this year, going 5-3 with a 2.93 ERA (compared to 2-3 with a 4.78 ERA in all "night" contests.) 

The home side counters with Brett Anderson (4-5, 3.67), who has admittedly been on fire of late, posting a 1.31 ERA ove rhis last four appearances, but who I believe is in line for some regression finally today. 

San Francisco has won 35 of its 59 road games this year. It's been very comfortable away from friendly confines this season and I expect it to find a way to get the job done in the finale in Milwaukee this afternoon.

Lay the short price, the play is the Giants.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AL Non-Division Game of the Month is on the Sea Mariners at 1:05 ET.

Seattle is just 3-6 on its current ten-game road trip. This is the final game of that contest. 

New York has won the first three games of this series. It's never swept the Mariners in a four-game series though and I don't expect that trend to get broken today.

I think the Yanks get caught looking ahead to their upcoming six-game road trip, starting in Kansas City tomorrow night.

I also think that Seattle has the superior starting pitcher on the hill. 

Yusei Kikuchi (7-6, 3.89 ERA) has struggled against the Yanks in the past, but I still say he's the correct call here. He comes in on top form. He most recently allowed two runs over six innings in a win over the Rays. Over 120.1 innings this year he owns a sharp 129/40 K/W. 

He's also been at his best in "day" games (4-4 with a 4.97 ERA in night contests, compared to 3-2 with a 2.19 ERA in day games) and on the road (he's 2-4 with a 4.57 ERA at home and 5-2 with a 3.36 ERA on the road.)

He'll be opposed by Luis Gil (1-0, 0.00) who remains in the rotation out of necessity. Gil's debut was a great one, as he went six shutout innings. It came against the Orioles though and I simply can't see the rookie duplicating those sparkling results.

Gil could go on to become the next Jacob deGrom, but in my opinion the door is wide open here for some immediate regression.

The Mariners are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge three straight losses to an opponent.

I say New York has the letdown here and Seattle rallies in its final game of its ten-game swing.

The play is Seattle.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Division Game of the Month (AL Central) is on the Det Tigers at 7:10 ET.

Detroit's been exchanging wins/losses over its last four games. Off a 6-1 loss here yesterday, I think this pattern will continue.

Detroit hands the ball to Tyler Alexander (1-1, 4.77 ERA), who gave up two runs over four innings in a no-decision to Baltimore on Sunday. Over 54.2 innings of work he now owns a 45/14 K/W. 

He'll be opposed by Elijah Morgan (1-3, 6.75) who gave up two runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Jays on Monday. Morgan's a rookie. Hard to know what you'll get from game to game. Note that he's 1-2 with an 8.94 ERA at home.

Detroit has done well in this spot for bettors, going 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it was held to one or less runs in.

I think Alexander is the correct call here between these two young starters. I look for Detroit to get the monkey off its back here and post a much-needed victory in this series.

The play is the Tigers.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM of the Month is on the Col Rockies at 8:10 ET.

Colorado smashed the Fish 14-2 here last night. I expect another decisive victory this evening as well for the home side with what I believe to be the clear superior starting pitcher going for it.

The Marlins hand the ball to Jesus Lazardo (3-4, 6.70 ERA), who is coming off a win over the Mets on Monday, allowing three runs over five innings. Luzardo has consistently been at his worst on the road this season though, going 1-2 with a ballooned 8.24 ERA away from friendly confines.

The home side counters with Austin Gomber (8-6, 4.04), who gave up four runs over one inning in a loss to the Padres on Sunday. In his previous start against San Diego, he shut it out over eight frames. It was clearly his worst start of the season, or perhaps even his career.

Starts like that though have been few and far between for Gomber of late, who is still 4-1 with a tiny 1.99 ERA at home.

Gomber has excelled at Coors. I don't expect the same fate for Lazardo. 

Lay the price, expect a rout.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cle Indians at 7:10 ET.

I think the talent discrepancy between starting pitchers today absolutely justifies in laying this reasonable mid-sized price.

The Tigers have been playing well of late, but everything points to a letdown here with confirmed "gas can" Matt Manning (2-4, 5.59 ERA) taking the hill for the visiting side.

He most recently was rocked for five runs off seven hits with two walks over five innings to the lowly Orioles on Saturday. 

Manning has been pedestrian at best this year, and he's been terrible on the road, going 0-3 with an 8.41 ERA. 

Cal Quantrill (2-2, 3.40) continued his consistent season last time out, allowing one run over six innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision to the White Sox on Sunday. It was his fourth consecutive trip to the hill in which he's allowed fewer than two runs.

I love Quantrill in this matchup. The stage is set for a blowout home side victory.

Lay the price, the play is Cleveland.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NL Game of the Week is on the Atl Braves at 8:15 ET.

I won with the Braves yesterday and I expect them to find a way to deliver here as well in what I believe to be another favorable starting pitching matchup.

Atlanta hands the ball to Drew Smyly (7-3, 4.40 ERA), who gave up three runs and struck out six over four innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Thursday. Smyly wasn't at his best obviously, but he still sports a highly respectable 83/34 K/W over 92 innings this season (he's been at his best on the road too, going 5-2 with a 4.24 ERA.) 

The home side counters with JA Happ (5-6, 6.77), who make his season debut for the Cardinals tonight. Happ has been terrible. Somehow he kept a spot in the Twins' rotation and somehow he was traded to St. Louis. There's nothing positive to say about Happ this season, as he's struggled in every facet. I don't expect him to simply "throw a switch" and solve all his problems in St. Louis. 

Finally note, the Cards are just 1-5 in their last six vs. southpaws, while the Braves are 4-1 in their last five road contests vs. lefties.

All things considered, a great price in my opinion.

The play is Atlanta.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:10 ET.

I had a play on Boston yesterday and while that pick came up short, I look for the Red Sox to get back on track here.

Overall it's been a great year for the Red Sox, but obviously they're going to be eager to break this five-game skid, which represents their longest one of the season. 

Detroit's had a bad campaing overall, but it's been playing well of late. Howver, after two straight victories, I expect a letdown here finally. 

The Red Sox hand the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez (7-6, 5.60 ERA). He gave up six runs in a loss to Toronto last Thursday. He hasn't found his overall form from a year ago, but he'll be feeling confident facing the Tigers, as he's 4-1 with a 2.91 ERA in six career starts vs. them.

Casey Mize (6-5, 3.41) has been exceptional for Detroit this year. Clearly, the rookie has exceeded expectations. It's difficult to say too many negative things about Mize, so I'm not going to bother. I simply feel he's in the wrong place at the wrong time today.

As note, Boston is 8-3 in its last 11 after playing to five or more straight losses in a row.

The Red Sox left nine runners on base last night. I don't expect that to happen twice. 

I believe that desperate Boston will find a way to deliver today.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Division Dominator (AL East) is on the Mia Marlins at 7:10 ET.

The Mets are floundering and overpriced in my opinion. I love the Marlins at home here.

New York has lost seven of ten and three in a row, while Miami has won two in a row after a four-game slide.

Carlos Carrasco (0-0, 2.25 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors. He most recently allowed one run off three hits over four innings in a no-decision to the Reds on Friday. Carrasco has so far been under a short leash. He'll likely see more time today.

The home side counters with Zach Thompson (2-4, 2.33) who is also coming off a strong outing, allowing one run and striking out five over six innings. He was very unfortunate to receive a loss for his effort. 

Over 38.2 innings of work though Thompson now owns a sharp 41/14 K/W (he's been at his best at home too, going 2-2 with a 2.12 ERA.)

Miami is 7-3 in its last ten in this series. I think it'll extend that run here.

The correct call is Thompson in my opinion at this price. Carrasco has yet to be truly tested since his return from injury and I think he'll struggle in that role today.

Great value play here on the Marlins.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout is on the Col Rockies at 8:40 ET.

I like the Rockies and Kyle Freeland to continue to add to the Cubs' miseries tonight. Chicago has lost six of its last ten and five of its last six.

Colorado hasn't been playing much better and has been out of contention for a while now, but I still think this is a matchup which favors the home side.

Chicago hands the ball to Zach Davies (6-7, 4.39 ERA), who was shelled for four runs over six innings in a loss to the Reds in his last outing. Note that he's an unremarkable 2-3 with a 4.48 ERA on the road.

Freeland (1-6, 4.52) gave up one run over six innings and struck out six in an unfortunate loss to the Padres on Thursday.

Freeland has "turned the corner" and I look for him to build off that mometum, as note that he posted an impressive 2.40 ERA over five July starts. 

Finally, note that the Rockies are a whopping 14-3 in their last 17 as a favorite, while the Cubs are a poor 1-8 in their last nine against a right-handed starter.

This one has rout written all over it.

The play is Colorado.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "Best Bet" Situational Stunner of the Month is on the Atl Braves at 8:15 ET.

The Braves been trading wins and losses over their last ten games and off a 2-1 setback to Milwaukee at home two nights ago, I expect this strong pattern to continue.

St. Louis has been trading wins and losses over its last five games. Off a 7-3 win here two nights ago against Minnesota, all signs point to this pattern continuing as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Max Fried (7-7, 4.32 ERA), who is off an unfortunate loss after allowing two runs over seven innings to the Mets. He also struck out nine, which was a season high. Over 91.2 innings Fried owns a very respectable 94/32 K/W.

He'll be opposed by Jon Lester (3-5, 5.02), who started off the season OK with the Nationals, but who makes his season debut here for the Cardinals struggling overall. He's been decent over his last two outings, but note he's still 0-4 with a 7.07 ERA on the road (true, technically this is a home game for Lester, but because it's just his first start here as a member of the Cards, I believe his road record should be taking into account in this first matchup.)

St. Louis is also just 1-5 in its last six vs. southpaws, while Atlanta is 4-0 in its last four as a favorite.

The Braves haven't throw in the towel and this is definitely a starting pitching matchup which works in their favor.

Look for Atlanta to step up and take advantage.

Lay the short price, the play is the Braves.

Good luck...Larry

The 2nd pick of my STP is an 8* on the Cin Reds at 7:10 ET.

The Reds have been playing well of late and I expect that momentum to get carried over here.

The Twins have been terrible all year and I think they'll struggle again in this one.

Kenta Maeda (4-4, 4.40 ERA) comes in off a strong start against Detroit, allowing one run over six innings. 

Maeda has been better of late, but while he owns a sharp 2.53 ERA at home, that balloons to 5.70 on the road.

Tyler Mahle (8-3, 3.71), counters for the home side. He is off a win over the Cubs on Wednesday, going six scoreless. 

Mahle's actually been better on the road than at home, but note that he's 4-0 with a 2.90 ERA in all night contests.

Cincinnait is also 5-0 in its last five against right-handed starters, while Minnesota is interestinly just 1-9 in its last ten when the total in the contest is set between 9 and 10.5 (does this stat really matter? It certainly doesn't hurt!)

The Reds are locked in and playing their best ball of the season. Expect that trend to continue here in this favorable matchup.

The play is Cincinnati.

Good luck...Larry

The 3rd pick of my STP is a 7* on the TB Rays at 7:10 ET.

After falling 8-2 yesterday, I like the home side to bounce back in fine fashion here.

Seattle sends Yusei Kikuchi (6-6, 4.01 ERA) to the hill, who continued his proverbial slide down the crapper in his last outing, getting shelled for four runs off seven hits over five innings. 

Over his last four games Kikuchi now owns a terrible 7.71 ERA.

The home side counters with Luis Patino (2-2, 4.26), who comes in off a strong outing against the Yanks in his last outing, striking out eight over six scoreless. 

Over 31.2 innings of work he has 36 strikeouts. 

Finally, note that Tampa is 7-1 in its last eight in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it was held to one or less runs in.

Look for Patino to continue his strong play and for Kikuchi to contine to struggle.

Lay the price with confidece, the play is Tampa.

Good luck...Larry

The first pick of my STP is a 9* on the Bos Red Sox at 7:10 ET.

After taking two of three from the Yanks, the Red Sox enter having lost five in a row. That includes two straight to division rivals Toronto and three straight to division rival Tampa.

Boston won't be lacking for motivation today.

Detroit has been playing better over the the last month. It broke a two-game slide with a 6-2 win over Baltimore two nights ago, but I think it'll have its hands full here with this determined visiting side.

Garrett Richards (6-6, 5.15 ERA), is out to turn things around after a poor stretch. He most recently allowed four runs over four innings in a loss to the Jays. In eight career appearances against the Tigers though, Richards is 2-2 with a 3.46 ERA.

He'll be opposed by Wily Peralta (3-2, 3.64), who was most recently shelled for five runs over his last 5 2/3's innings of work.

He's also 0-0 with a 5.16 ERA in four career appearances against Boston.

The Tigers ended a 17 games in 16 days stretch with a win, but with a day off, I think they have a classic letdown here.

Look for Richards to continue his consistent play against the Tigers and for Boston to get back into the winners circle with a much-needed victory.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AL East Game of the Month is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:08 ET.

Boston comes in hungry to break a four-game slide and to avoid the three-game series sweep here in Tampa. 

The Rays come in complacent after three straight victories and with the lowly Orioles coming to town tomorrow for a new series.

The visitors hand the ball to Nick Pivetta (8-4, 4.51 ERA), who gave up four runs and struck out six over five innings in a no-decision to the hard-hitting Blue Jays on Monday. Pivetta hasn't been great or terrible over the last month, but pedestrian is probably the best word to describe his performance.

That said, the second-year pro has been fantastic on the road this season, going 5-2 with a 3.22 ERA.

The home side counters with Shane McClanahan (4-4, 3.93), who is off a loss to the Yankees on Tuesday, conceding three runs over six innings.

With last night's win, the Rays have taken over the lead in the AL East by a half game. 

I think Pivetta can outduel his rookie counterpart here in this important game (also note that Boston is 7-2 in its last nine after a three games or longer losing streak.)

For all the reasons listed above, I'm playing Boston.

Good luck...Larry

The 3rd pick of my STP is an 8* on the LA Angels at 4:07 ET.

The Angels eked out a 1-0 win here last night and I think they'll find a way to earn a series win here on Sunday.

This is a battle of rookie starters that make their respective MLB debuts.

However, that's where the similarities end between these two young hurlers.

The form in which Angels' starter Reid Detmers enters makes him the correct call in this matchup. Detmers comes over from Triple-A Salt Lake, where he made one start, going six scoreless and striking out nine. 

The Athletics' Daulton Jefferies posted a 5.19 ERA and 1.29 WHIP across 59 frames in Triple A action (Jefferies actually made his MLB debut for the A's late last year, so this is his second ever MLB start, and first of the season.)

LA trails Oakland by six games for the Wildcard spot and I look for it to build off yesterday's victory.

Lay the short price, the play is LA.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the SF Giants at 4:05 ET.

The Giants have been alternating wins and losses over their last five games, but I say that pattern gets broken today after their 8-6 win yesterday.

Houston's three-game win skein is snapped and with a night off before a two-game set at the defending champs, this also sets up as classic letdown/look-ahead spot in my estimation.

I like the league leading Giants to take advantage.

The Astros hand the ball to rookie Luis Garcia (7-5, 3.19 ERA), who is starting to show some cracks in the armor of late, most recently conceding six runs over four innings to the Mariners. He was lucky to escape with a no-decision. 

While he's 4-3 with a 2.25 ERA at home, Garcia is just 3-2 with a 4.59 ERA on the road. 

The home side counters with Logan Webb (4-3, 3.36), who gave up one run to go along with five strikeouts over six innings, unlucky to earn a no-decision vs. the Dodgers on Tuesday.

Webb owns a 70/22 K/W over 67 innings of work and he's 2-0 with a 1.61 ERA at home.

Look for Webb to continue his red hot play at home and for Garcia to continue to regress in thid difficult road venue.

The play is the Giants.

Good luck...Larry

The 2nd pick of my STP is an 8* on the StL Cardinals at 2:15 ET.

I like the Cards to bounce back here in the finale of this interleague series. St. Louis took the first game by a score of 5-1, and then Minnesota won 8-1 yesterday.

The visitors hand the ball to Michael Pineda (4-5, 3.86 ERA), who gave up two runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Tigers on Monday. 

Pineda has been a consistent bright spot in the Twins' rotation this year, but if he's had one knock against him, it's been his play on the road where he's just 2-2 with a pedestrian 4.98 ERA.

The home side counters with Adam Wainwright (8-6, 3.51) who continues to enjoy a resurgent season, most recently allowing two runs over seven innings in a victory over the Tribe. 

He's now gone into the seventh inning six times in his last ten starts and over that span he's posted a 2.86 ERA and a 62/15 K/W over 66 frames of work (he has a 4.98 ERA on the road and a 2.70 ERA at home as well.) 

Look for St. Louis to bounce back here behind a superior start from Wainwright.

Lay the price, the play is the Cardinals.

Good luck...Larry

The 1st pick of my STP is a 9* on the Mil Brewers at 1:20 ET.

I had a play on the Braves last night and they went on to crush the Brewers by a score of 8-1.

Tonight though I think the value has swung back the other way.

The visitors hand the ball to Brett Anderson (3-5, 3.86 ERA), who comes in off a super strong outing against the Pirates on Tuesday, going six scoreless. 

He's now allowed just two runs over two starts since the All Star break and I believe he'll carry over that momentum here. 

The Braves counter with Charlie Morton (10-3, 3.72), who gave up three runs over five innings in a win over the Mets on Tuesday. Morton has been great of late, but the Brewers are 20-6 in their last 26 vs. right-handed starters.

Milwaukee is also 8-2 in its last ten as a road dog.

The Braves are only 26-26 at home, while the Brewers are 33-18 on the road.

This one has slight upset written all over it.

The play is Milwaukee.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET.

The Braves have been trading wins and losses over their last ten games.

After a 9-5 loss here in the opener of this series, I believe this pattern will continue.

The Brewers have been playing well over the last few weeks, but after four straight wins, I say the "letdown" happens today.

The Braves fly under the radar here at home as the underdog.

These starting pitchers are more evenly matched than what Vegas is trying to lead us to believe in my opinion.

The Brewers hand the ball to Brandon Woodruff (7-5, 2.14 ERA), who gav eup three runs over seven innings in what turned out to be a loss to the White Sox.

Clearly, Woodruff has been superb this year. I just think that Braves rookie hurler Kyle Muller (2-3, 2.55) can match him inning for inning.

Muller earned his second career win last time out, striking out three over five scoreless against the Mets. 

He's been better at home than on the road, but I still think he can match his counterpart here.

The Braves though have done well in this spot for bettors, going 8-3 in their last 11 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they conceded eight or more runs in.

Great value on the hungry home side.

The play is the Braves.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cin Reds at 7:10 ET.

The Cubs are on the verge of being eliminated from playoff contention, while the Reds are well on the way to securing a spot.

These teams are moving in opposite directions right now and I expect that trend to continue.

Cincinnati has won seven of ten and four in a row. I like going against "streaks/runs," whether those are winning or losing, but right now I think the Reds are "locked in." 

Rich Hill (6-4, 3.95 ERA) makes his second start for the Cubs. In his first he allowed three runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Jays. 

Hill is going to have his hands full though with a red hot Jonahthan India, who had two home runs and three RBI's in yesterday's 6-2 series opeing victory.

The Mets got some crushing news as well when they learned that star pitcher Jacob deGrom will be shelved for the season with injury.

New York's prospects aren't looking great right now, and I think that Reds' starter Wade Miley can take advantage.

Miley (8-4, 2.86) is 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA in his last ten outings.

Too many uncertainties for this Mets organization, while the Reds come in playing arguably their best baseball of the season.

All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value." 

The play is the Reds.

Good luck...Larry

NOTE: This is a play on the GIANTS, wrong side chosen by mistake.

My 8* AL West/NL West Showdown is on the SF Giants at 4:05 ET.

The Giants own the best record in baseball and they'll be eager to get back to their winning ways after dropping the opener of this interleague series yesterday by a score of 9-6. 

The Astros have won eight of ten and three in a row.

San Francisco has won six of ten, but it's dropped two of its last three.

I say the Giants are the "hungrier" team today. San Francisco also is set to welcome slugger Kris Bryant to the line-up today, as he comes over in a trade from the Cubs. 

The home side will clearly be motivated today and it has a pitcher on the mound that can match Houston's inning for inning.

The Astros hand the ball to Zach Greinke (10-3, 3.48 ERA), while the Giants counter with Alex Wood (9-3, 3.65).

Both are coming off strong outings. Each has enjoyed success against their opponent today in the past. They're evenly matched in my books.

San Francisco though has been resilient in this position for bettors, going 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it allowed eight or more runs in.

Considering all of the situational and motivational factors I see working in favor of the Giants today and which are listed above, I think we're getting unbelievable value here on the home side.

The play is San Francisco.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "Signature" LEGEND Play is on the LA Angels at 9:38 ET.

The Angels trail the Athletics for the Wild card spot and they've lost six in a row to Oakland coming into this series. 

Clearly, the home side won't be lacking for motivation today.

LA has been trading wins and losses over its last four games, and after yesterday's 4-0 series opening defeat here to the A's, I look for this pattern to continue.

I say these starting pitchers are evenly matched. Their numbers certainly point to that being the case, as Oakland starter Chris Bassitt is 10-3 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, while LA's Patrick Sandoval is 3-4 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.

This is a double-revenge spot for Sandoval as well, who has already gone up against Bassitt twice this year, losing 6-2 and 6-0. 

Sandoval in his last outing though struck out 13 in a win over the Twins and he's a big reason why I like the home side here. 

Bassitt is 5-3 with a 3.88 ERA in 11 appearances against LA.

As I said, these starters are essentially a "wash," but I'll give Sandoval the slight edge for throwing at home here. Does the "double revenge" factor matter? I don't think it hurts!

Finally, note that LA is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge a shutout home loss to an opponent. 

A great situational play here on the Angels.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:10 ET.

Toronto snapped a two-game slide with a big 4-1 win here yesterday and with its ace on the mound, I think the visiting side will find a way to deliver again here on Thursday.

Hyun-Jin Ryu (9-5, 3.44 ERA) gave up three runs and struck out four over four innings in a no-decision to the Mets on the weekend. It was just the third start this year that he's failed to pitch at least five innings.

No need to hit the panic button obviously. Note that Ryu is 5-3 with a 3.44 ERA on the road as well this season.

The home side counters with Eduardo Rodriguez (7-5, 5.23), who has pitched much better over the last month, but he was just pulled from his last start after one inning due to migraine issues.

He's been given the green light here, but I say, advantage Ryu!

Note as well that Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine after holding its opponent to one or less runs in a road victory in its last outing.

Look for Ryu to go deep and for Toronto to post a second straight victory.

The play is the Jays.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Getaway Day Game of the Week is on the SF Giants at 3:45 ET.

The Giants are the No. 1 team in MLB, but they'll be eager to get back into the winners circle after yesterday's humbling 8-0 defeat here to their rivals.

LA is undermanned right now, but it still managed to get the job done, bouncing back from a 2-1 series opening defeat.

The Giants are 7-3 in their last ten in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were shut out in, so Johnny Cueto (6-5, 4.09 ERA) has to be feeling confident he can help his team bounce back today.

Cueto most recently allowed three runs and struck out seven over five innings in a no-decision to the Pirates on Friday. Over 16 starts the veteran owns a respectable 77/17 K/W. 

And while Cueto is only 1-2 with a 5.13 ERA on the road, he's 5-3 with a 3.45 ERA at home.

He'll be opposed by David Price (4-0, 3.35), who gave up three runs and struck out four over five innings in a no-decision to the Rockies in his last outing. In his limited time, Price has been sharp. Regression does seem imminent though in my opinion.

I say it's Cueto that outduels Price. I like the Giants in this bounce-back revenge spot after getting blanked on Wednesday.

The play is San Francisco.

Good luck...Larry

The 1st pick of my STP is on the Cin Reds at 8:05 ET.

The Cubs are sellers at the trade deadline, while the Reds are in the hunt.

Off their 7-4 win here yesterday, I like the visiting side to find a way to step up here and get the job done as well.

Cincinnati hands the ball to Tyler Mahle (7-3, 3.92 ERA), who earned a no-decision against the Cardinals on Friday, allowing two runs over five innings and striking out five. Mahle has been scuffling a bit of late after a red hot start, but he's definitely been at his best on the road this season, going 2-2 with a ballooned 6.07 ERA at home, but 5-1 with a tiny 2.28 ERA on the road.

The Cubs counter with Zach Davies (6-6, 4.30), who allowed two runs off seven hits over five innings in a win over the Diamondbacks on Friday. 

Davies has turned the corner with his performance over the last month, but I'll point out that he's 3-1 with a 2.85 ERA in all day contests, while only 3-5 with a 5.29 ERA in all night games.

Chicago has actually lost four of the last five games started by Davies. Mahle has held the Cubs to two or less runs in his last three vs. them and I believe he's the correct call again here.

Great value here on the hungry visitors, the play is Cincinnati.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the TB Rays at 7:10 ET.

Off yesterday's 4-3 defeat, I like the Rays to battle tough here and rebound with a victory in this revenge spot on Wednesday night.

New York has been alternating wins/losses over its last four games and I think that pattern continues with rookie Nestor Cortes (0-0, 1.95 ERA) starting this one.

Nestor has a sharp 34/10 K/W over his first 27.2 innings, but he returned from the injured list in his last outing and looked pedestrian by allowing three runs over two innings. 

This is a big test for Cortes here now in this difficult road venue and I say that he stumbles. Tampa comes in focussed now to break a two-game slide.

Michael Wacha (2-2, 5.16) gets the nod for the home side. He's been inconsistent this year, but it's not entirely his fault as he's had to move around a lot this year, from the rotation, to the bullpen and then back again. In his last outing he allowed three runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Orioles.

Wacha's been his most consistent at home though, going 1-0 with a 3.99 ERA.

The Yanks are set to welcome back Aaron Judge, but I think that it'll be Nelson Cruz and the revenge-minded home side that find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Lay the short price, the play is Tampa.

Good luck...Larry

My MLB 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Angels at 9:38 ET.

The Angels have now won three in a row after yesterday's 6-2 win here over Colorado.

I say that LA keeps the momentum rolling.

The Rockies enter this one on the other end of the spectrum, losers of three straight. 

Everything points to this slide continuing in my opinion.

The visitors see Austin Gomber (7-5, 3.74 ERA) toe the slab tonight, and he's off a win over the Mariners, allowing three runs over six innings. 

In 16 starts this year though Gomber has served up multiple home runs.

The Angels counter with Jose Suarez (4-3, 2.85), who is coming off a loss to the A's, allowing four runs and striking out four over six innings. 

The rookie has been strong overall though, and I absolutely think he's the correct call in this starting matchup, especially as he'll be at home.

I think Colorado's offensive issues continue and I expect the Angels to take advantage.

Lay the price, the play is LA.

Good luck...Larry

The 3rd pick of my STP is a 7* on the Chi White Sox at 8:10 ET.

The White Sox come in highly motivated here. They did break their three-game slide with a 3-1 win at Milwaukee, but they then returned to the losers circle after a 4-3 defeat here in yesterday's series opener.

Enough is eough for the White Sox, who have now dropped four of their last five.

The Royals are playing their best baseball of the season, but I expect this to be the spot where the "letdown" happens.

Chicago hands the ball to Dylan Cease (7-6, 4.21 ERA) who gave up three runs and struck out five over five innings in a loss to the Twins on Wednesday. Cease has been better at home than on the road, but I still say he's the correct call in this bounce-back revenge spot for the White Sox.

Brad Keller (7-9, 5.84) is coming off awin over the Brewers last week for the Royals, allowing three runs over six innings, but outings like that have been few and far between for the Royals' Opening Day starter. 

KC is still just 17-36 in its last 53 vs. right-handed starters, while Chicago is 51-19 in its last 70 vs. teams with losing records (and 6-2 in its last eight on the road.)

I like Cease to go deep and for the White Sox to get back into the winners circle.

Lay the price, the play is Chicago.

Good luck...Larry

The 1st pick of my STP is on the Mil Brewers at 7:05 ET.

The Brewers have had a night off after falling 3-1 at home to the White Sox in the finale of a three-game series. Milwaukee won the series 2-1. I believe the Brew Crew bounces back here though in this favorable position.

Milwaukee turns to Brett Anderson (2-5, 4.26 ERA), who is coming off a strong outing against the Royals on Tuesday, allowing two runs and striking out three over five innings. Anderson has to be feeling confident here, as his team has won seven of ten in this season series so far.

Slugger Lorenzo Cain is also expected back in the line-up tonight for Milwaukee. 

Tyler Anderson is just 2-2 with a 5.82 ERA in four career starts against the Brewers. 

Brett Anderson is 4-1 with a 2.82 ERA in seven career outings against Pittsburgh.

I think the Brewers are well worth the price of admission in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My MLB 10* Game of the Week is on the Mia Marlins at 7:05 ET.

This is the opener of a brief two-game interleague series.

The Marlins are off back-to-back wins at home over the Padres and I expect them to keep the momentum rolling here. Both teams are out of the playoff picture, but each is competing.

Baltimore has been playing well of late also, but after a series sweep at home over the Nationals this weekend, I believe a letdown is in order here for the Orioles.

The visitors hand the ball to Sandy Alcantara (5-9, 3.23 ERA), who hasn't pitched since July 16th, as he's been on the bereavement list. 

That's significant to note, because in 12 appearances that Alcantara has pitched with at least six days of rest between starts, he owns a sharp 2.60 ERA. 

Spenser Watkins (2-0, 1.65) has looked great in his limited time for the Orioles. He's conceded one run or fewer in his first three major league starts. 

Watkins looks primed for regression at some point though, and in my estimation, that time is now.

Yes, the Fish are a poor 19-34 on the road, but the Orioles are a terrible 16-30 at home.

Miami is 9-3 though in its last 12 interleague road games.

I say Watkins takes a step back and the well rested Alcantara steps up and takes advantage.

Lay the reasonable price, the play is Miami.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL Central) is on the Cin Reds at 8:05 ET.

This is the opener of an important four-game series for each club. As of Monday morning, the majority of the public money is on Chicago in this one, and that's likely going to get even more lop-sided as the first-pitch approaches.

But I say this one sets up well for Cincinnati.

The visitors took two of three from the Cardinals at home over the weekend, but they're out to bounce-back after yesterday's 10-6 defeat.

The Cubs took two of three from the Diamondbacks here over the weekend, including yesterday's 5-1 victory.

The Reds roll with Wade Miley (8-4, 2.72 ERA) to open things up, and he most recently allowed one run while striking out eight over seven innings in a win over the Mets. It was the 11th time this season that he's gone into the sixth inning or beyond (and note, Miley's been at his best on the road, going 5-2 with a 2.93 ERA at home, and 3-2 with a 2.52 ERA away from friendly confines.)

The home side counters with Kyle Hendicks (12-4, 3.61), who gave up two runs over six innings in what turned out to be a no-decision against the Cardinals. 

Hendricks has been a bright spot for the Cubs this year. Interestingly, his home ERA (3.92), is slightly higher than his road (3.34).

Miley is 2-1 with a 4.88 ERA on four career starts at Wrigley, and 7-4 with a 4.29 ERA in 13 career matchups vs. the Cubs. Hendricks is 6-5 with a 4.24 ERA in 20 career outings against Cincinnati. The starters are a "wash."  

The trade deadline is quickly approaching and the Cubs are sellers. The Reds though are still pushing for a spot.

Chicago is out of contention and after yesterday's victory, I say a letdown here is imminent.

I like Miley to match Hendricks inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to the under valued underdog.

The play is the Reds.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MLB Sunday Night "GAME OF THE Month" play is on the Chi White Sox at 7:08 ET.

The White Sox have lost six of their last ten, including three in a row. 

With their ace on the mound, I think they finally get off the schneid.

Lance Lynn (9-3, 1.94 ERA), is coming off a no-decision to the Twins on Monday, unforutnate because he conceded just a single run and struck out four over seven innings. He's 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA on the road.

Brandon Woodruff (7-4, 2.04) gets the nod for the Brewers. He gave up two runs over five innings in a no-decision to Cincinnati on Saturday. 

It's hard to say anything negative about Woodruff, as like his counterpart, he's enjoying a resurgent season. I simply feel that he's in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

With a night off before a three-game series at lowly Pittsburgh, I think the home side gets caught looking ahead.

The White Sox can't afford to look past anyone right now. Look for Lynn to "right the ship" in the finale of this interleague series.

The play is the White Sox.

Good luck...Larry

The 3rd pick of my STP is on the Oak A's at 4:10 ET.

Oakland won the opener of this series, but since then it's been all Mariners.

After back-to-back losses, I expect the A's to dig deep here and find a way to post a "W" in the finale.

Note that Oakland 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge two straight losses to an opponent.

The visitors hand the ball to Cole Irvin (7-9, 3.42 ERA), who went seven scoreless in a win over the Angels on Monday. Over 113 innings he owns a sharp 1.18 WHIP and 81/20 K/W. 

The home side counters with the volatile Marco Gonzalez (2-5, 5.69), who gave up two runs over vive innings in a win over the Rockies in his last outing. Starts like that have been few and far between for the third-year pro though this season, and note that he's 0-2 with a 5.34 ERA at home. 

For all the reasons listed above, lay the reasonable price on the revenge-minded Athletics.

Good luck...Larry

The 2nd pick of my STP is an 8* on the NY Yankees at 1:10 ET.

New York will be hungry here to win the final game of this four game series. I think the Yanks will indeed do just that, as they face a starting pitcher that they've enjoyed plenty of success against in the past.

New York hands the ball to Domingo German (4-5, 4.71 ERA), who enters off a no-decision to the Phillies on Tuesday, allowing two runs and striking out five over four innings. While he's 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA at home, he's 4-3 with a 4.39 ERA on the road.

Boston counters with Martin Perez (7-6, 4.16), who lost to these very Yankees last weekend, allowing three runs over four innings. Perez is 2-4 with a 7.04 ERA in nine career outings against the Yankees.

German is a more respectable 2-2 with a 4.58 ERA in nine appearances against the Red Sox.

Look for German to outduel his inconsistent counterpart and for the Yankees to leave town with a series split.

Great value here on New York.

Good luck...Larry

The 1st pick of my STP is an 8* on the Bal Orioles at 1:05 ET.

Baltimore has looked decent since coming out of the All Star break, as it's won five of its last six, including two in a row. That includes taking the first two games of this series.

I say the the Orioles keep the foot on the gas for one more game with their ace on the mound as they go for the rare series sweep.

The Nationals are sliding down the proverbial crapper, as they've lost seven of ten, inluding three straight. 

With Paolo Espino (2-2, 3.00 ERA) taking the hill for the Nationals, things aren't going to get any easier today either in my opinion.

Espino went five scoreless against the Mets in his last outing. It was a step in the right direction, but he's still has a poor 5.28 ERA in 15.1 innings, across four appearances this month. 

The home side counters with John Means (4-3, 2.72), who is out to atone for a poor outing in his last trip to the hill, allowing five runs over five innings in a loss to the Rays. 

Over 76 innings though Means has a 0.87 WHIP and 71/13 K/W and he's been fantastic in all day games this year, going 3-2 with a 1.54 ERA.

Look for Means and the home side to take advantage of this favorable matchup.

Great price, the play is Baltimore.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" 37-Club Play is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:10 ET.

I had a play on the Mets last night. It was my Interleague Game of the Month. After back-to-back losses though, as Toronto lost 13-4 in its final game in Boston before coming here, I expect the Jays to bounce back on Saturday night.

And Toronto has to be feeling confident here in handing the ball to ace Hyun-Jin Ryu (9-5, 3.32 ERA) who went seven scoreless in a win over the Rangers in his last outing. 

Ryu is 5-1 with a 1.23 ERA in nine career starts against the Mets. New York has issues with its offense at the best of times, and it definitely has issues with elite level pitching.

Taijuan Walker (7-3, 2.99) was shelled for six runs over just one-third of an inning in what turned out to be fortunate no-decision against the Padres last Sunday. It was the shortest outing of his career.

Walker is 0-3 with a 3.96 ERA in four career starts fo the Jays. Toronto has an opportunity here to do what the Mets did to Steven Matz yesterday, and that's score some runs against their former teammate.

And that's exactly what I'm expecting Toronto to finally do here. Note that the Jays are a strong 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge a shutout road loss to an opponent.

All things considered, I think we're getting a great price in this one.

The play is Toronto.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the KC Royals at 7:10 ET.

I like the Royals to keep the foot on the gas and build on their three-game win streak.

That includes a 5-3 victory in the opener here against the Tigers, who are primed for a letdown in my opinion after their seven-game win streak was snapped in yesterday's setback.

Detroit's Casey Mize (5-5, 3.44 ERA) went four scoreless against the Rangers on Monday, in what turned out to be a no-decision.

Mize though hasn't gone past the fourth inning in any of his last three starts and I think he'll have his hands full here with this focussed home side.

Which counters with Carlos Hernandez (1-1, 4.91), who enters off a strong outing against the Orioles on Sunday, allowing two runs over four innings. While he's 0-0 with a 6.55 ERA on the road, he's 1-1 with a 3.80 ERA at home.

Look for home field to prove to be a big difference-maker today between these two rookie starting hurlers.

The play is Kansas City.

Good luck...Larry

The 2nd pick of my STP is a 7* on the Cin Reds at 7:10 ET.

The Reds lost here 7-0 to the Mets two nights ago, but I think they'll bounce back in the opener of this one.

It's been a poor re-start for Cincinnati, as it's lost five of six since the All Star break. Clearly, the Reds won't be lacking for motivation tonight.

They face a contented Cards team that has won five of seven since the All Star game, including two in a row over the Cubs. Both were tight 3-2 victories. 

St. Louis is 28-20 at home, but it's just 21-28 on the road.

The Reds are only 24-25 at home, but everything points to a comfortable victory today.

St. Louis hands the ball to Wade LeBlanc (0-2, 4.31 ERA), who has struggled for the most part over four starts this season, posting a poor 9/8 K/W spanning 18 frames of action.

The Reds counter with Tyler Mahle (7-3, 3.93), who is coming off an outing to forget against the Brewers on Friday, allowing fiver runs over six innings. He did strikeout eight. 

Over 100.2 innings of work Mahle owns a sharp 126/38 K/W. His home and away records are disproportional. 

I think Mahle is the correct call here.

This one sets up great for both the Reds and their hungry starting pitcher throwing with a chip on his shoulder.

Lay the price, the play is Cincinnati.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Rout is on the NY Yankees at 7:10 ET.

Off a 5-4 loss here in ten innings yesterday and with its ace on the mound, I like New York to bounce back in Bean Town on Friday night.

The visitors hand the ball to Gerritt Cole (10-4, 2.63 ERA) who is coming off a win over Boston on the 18th, allowing one run and striking out 11 over six innings. Over his last 15 innings of work Cole has conceded just one run and eight hits.

And he has to be feeling confident here, as he's been at his best on the road, going 6-2 with a 2.55 ERA away from friendly confines.

The home side counters with the volatile Eduardo Rodriguez (7-5, 5.19), who comes in off a decent start against the Yanks, allowing zero runs over 5.2 innings and striking out eight in the victory last Friday. 

Rodriguez though has struggled with game-to-game consistency and despite his strong showing last week, I think he's completely overmatched here.

Cole isn't getting enough respect in my opinion.

The play is New York.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* IL GAME OF THE MONTH is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET.

The New York Mets are hungry for a win here agasint their former teammate.

The Mets have won three of their last four, including a 7-0 win at Cincinnati two days ago.

The Jays are off back-to-back home losses to the Red Sox, falling 13-4 and 7-4 respectively.

Steven Matz (8-4, 4.43 ERA) is coming off a strong outing against the lowly Rangers in Game 3 of Sunday's doubleheader, allowing three hits over five scoreless innings. He's yet to go six innings in any start since May 25th though and note that he owns a poor 5.69 ERA in all night contests this season.

The home side counters with Tylor Megill (0-0, 2.63) who will be hungry for his first win. Most recently he went six scoreless against the Pirates.

Over 24 innings of work Megill has a sharp 28/9 K/W. 

The Jays could be caught looking ahead here as well to a crucial four-game series at the Red Sox after this.

Matz has struggled with consistency from game-to-game and facing your former team, especially on the road, is never an easy task.

I like Megill to build off his recent performance and to finally get off the schneid with a victory here.

A great situational play here in my opinion and the price is great as well.

The play is the Mets.

Good luck...Larry

The 1st pick of my STP is a 7* on the Phil Phillies at 7:05 ET.

I like the Phillies to bounce back from yesterday's 7-2 defeat.

Philadelphia is hungry now to break a three-game slide.

The Braves have alternated wins/losses over their last six games and I expect this pattern to continue here.

The visitors hand the ball to Max Fried (7-5, 4.29 ERA) who went seven scoreless in a victory over Tampa last Saturday. 

If Fried has had one knock against him this season though, it's definitely been his play on the road where he's a poor 2-2 with a ballooned 6.43 ERA.

Zach Wheeler (7-5, 2.44) toes the rubber for the home side and he most recently allowed four runs over six innings and struck out seven in a hard-fought win over the Marlins. 

Over his last 43.1 innings of work Wheeler has a 2.28 ERA and 1.11 WHIP (he has to be feeling confident here as well as he's 4-2 with a 2.16 ERA at home.)

I love the revenge-minded home side in this spot.

Lay the price with confidence.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Min Twins at 8:10 ET.

I think Kenta Maeda and the hungry home side are well worth the price of admission in this one.

The Angels have lost three straight and I expect that slide to continue. At least one more game anyways.

Minnesota won't be lacking for motivation here. It's played six games since the break and it's gone just 2-4. It's off a 7-2 win at Chicago yesterday and I expect them to build off that peformance with another victory here at home.

The Angels hand the ball to Andrew Heaney (5-7, 5.56 ERA), who enters in terrible form, as over his last five starts he's gone 1-4 with a ballooned 8.49 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. 

I can't see Heaney suddenly "flipping a switch" and correcting all of his issues. This is his worst statistical campaign of his career by far and I think he'll struggle to keep pace with Maeda (4-3, 4.71), who most recently conceded three runs and struck out eight over five innings in the second game of a double-header against Detroit, not factoring into the decision.

Maeda has struggled this year as well, but he's been getting progressively better with each outing over the last month, as his latest victory saw him top at least seven strikeouts for a third straight time.

Over 72.2 innings of work this year Maeda now owns a respectable 79/24 K/W and everything points to his continued progression this evening.

Considering the current form of these starting pitchers, I say we're getting great value on the home side.

Lay the price, the play is Minnesota.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Rout-Part 2 is on the StL Cardinals at 7:15 ET.

As soon as I saw this starting pitching matchup, I loved it. I would have probably made this a top-rated 10* release if St. Louis lost yesterday, but regardless, I still think this is fantastic value on a great in-form hurler.

St. Louis hands the ball to Kwang Hyun Kim (5-5, 2.87 ERA), who looked strong in his first start out of the break, going five scoreless against the hard-hitting Giants on Saturday. Kim has now posted 19 straight scoreless innings over his last three starts and he's won his last four straight trips to the hill.

Chicago sees Adbert Alzolay (4-9, 4.59) take the hill, and he enters off a decent outing, giving up two runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Diamondbacks on Saturday. 

Alzolay is a respectable 3-3 with a 4.18 ERA, but a pedestrian/poor 1-6 with a 5.12 ERA on the road.

Kim is 1-0 with a 0.93 ERA in two previous starts against the Cubs, while Alzolay is 0-4 with a 5.84 ERA in five starts since returning from the IL on June 21st.

These starters are moving in opposite directions and all signs point to those trends continuing here.

Great value on the home side in this one.

The play is St. Louis.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* WIPEOUT WINNER is on the White Sox. 

This is the finale of a four-game series. Minnesota took the first game by a score of 3-2, but Chicago has taken the next two, winning 5-3 and 9-5.

I think the White Sox will find a way to secure the 3-1 series victory on Wednesday night.

The Twins hand the ball to Michael Pineda (3-5, 4.11 ERA), and he gave up five runs off 12 hits over 5.1 innings in a loss to these very White Sox in his final start before the break. Pineda has now conceded three or more runs in three of his last four outings and a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get things turned around, as he's just 1-2 with a 5.50 ERA away from friendly confines thus far.

Dylan Cease (7-5, 4.15) is coming off a loss to the Astros on Friday, allowing three runs and striking out ten over six innings. 

Cease pitched well enough to win, but didn't. He'll be feeling confident here though, as while he's a poor 3-4 with a 6.31 ERA on the road this season, he's a "lights out" 4-1 with a 2.16 ERA at home.

Cease is the correct call here. The Twins bullpen is questionable as well.

I'm laying the price, and expecting a decisive home victory.

The play is the White Sox.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Getaway Day game is on the NY Mets at 12:35 ET.

The Mets have lost three of their first five games since the All Star Break, including yestreday's contest here 4-3.

With its ace on the mound though, I think that New York will find a way to get the job done in the finale.

Marcus Stroman (6-8, 2.78 ERA) is off a loss Friday against the Pirates, allowing two runs over five innings. 

Stroman's been a bright spot in the Mets rotation and he has to be feeling confident here as he's a solid 4-3 with a 3.20 ERA in all day games.

The home side hands the ball to Jeff Hoffman (3-4, 4.61), who will move back to the bullpen when others return from the injured list. Hoffman has been decent in his limited time, but h hasn't appeared in a game since May 26th due to a sore shoulder. Over six appearances and four career starts against the Mets though, Hoffman is 1-1 with a 7.43 ERA>

Stroman is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in two career outings against the Reds.

Look for the Mets to respond after yesterday's narrow defeat.

The play is New York.

Good luck...Larry

The third pick of my STP (a 9*) is on the Yankees.

New York took two of three from the Red Sox over the weekend and I like them to find a way to take Game 1 of this interleague series on Tuesday night as well.

Philadelphia took three of four at home from the Marlins, but I believe a predictable letdown is in order here now that the Phillies hit the road.

Aaron Nola (6-5, 4.53 ERA) was placed on the COVID IL before the break, but he's off and back in the rotation. 

While Nola is 3-2 with a 3.56 ERA at home this season, he's just 3-3 with a 5.42 ERA on the road. Nola is having a "down" year for his lofty standards, but he's always pitched much better at home than on the road throughout his career.

New York counters with Domingo German (4-5, 4.72), who pitched a scoreless relief inning during a loss to the Red Sox last Friday.

German is just 1-3 with a 6.56 ERA in all "day" games, but a solid 3-2 with a 3.50 ERA in all "night" contests.

Look for New York to build off its series win over the Red Sox with a victory in this opener.

Great value on the Yankees on Tuesday night.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Marlins.

The Marlins have now lost three in a row after yesterday's humbling series opening 18-1 loss to the Nationals.

With their bona-fide ace on the mound though, I like the Fish to bounce back finally.

The Nationals are in trouble with their starting rotation, and I say that comes back to bite them tonight.

Miami hands the ball to Trevor Rogers (7-6, 2.31 ERA) who plays with revenge here after losing his only other start against the Nats earlier thi syear, allowing three runs over five innings. 

Rogers has a significant advantage over counterpart Paolo Espino (2-2, 3.33) who is 0-0 with an 11.25 ERA in two career meetings against Miami.

Espino is being pressed into service out of neccessity here and I definitely think he's outclassed.

And the fact that the Marlins are 7-1 in their last eight in tryihng to revene a road loss of ten or more runs doesn't hurt either obviously.

I look for a rested Rogers to bounce back and deliver a victory here for the hungry visiting side.

The play is the Marlins.

Good luck...Larry

The second pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the Brewers.

Kansas City has lost eight of its last ten and I believe it's in over its head here as well in the opener of this interleague series on Tuesday afternoon.

The Royals hand the ball to Mike Minor (6-8, 5.67 ERA), who was shelled for six runs off nine hits over four innings in a loss to the Tribe in his final outing before the break.

Minor had lost four in a row and posted a poor 11/8 K/W over those 20 innings of work. Minor has struggled in every facet, as note that he's conceded a home in seven of his last eight starts.

The Brewers come in confident after crushing the Reds oveer the weekend in three straight games.

Milwaukee hands the ball to Brett Anderson (2-5, 4.33), who will be eager to return to the winners circle after an unfortunate no-decision back on July 8th, going four scoreless against the Mets in the first game of a double-header.

Note, while he's 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA on the road, Anderson is 1-1 with a 2.86 ERA at home.

Look for Anderson to continue his sharp play at home and for the Brewers to make the most of their inconsistent opposing starting pitcher.

Lay the price with confidence, the play is Milwaukee.

Good luck...Larry

The first pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the Athletics.

After two straight losses, the A's bounced back and won the opener of this series 4-1 yesterday.

I think they make it two in a row here in what I believe to be a very favorable starting pitching matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Jose Suarez (4-2, 2.04 ERA), who gave up one run over five innings in a win over the light-hitting Mariners on July 13th.

The rookie has been sharp early with a 33/15 K/W over 35.1 innings, but I expect regression to happen sooner, rather than later.

The A's counter with James Kaprielian (4-3, 2.90), who gave up two runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Rangers back on July 10th. 

Kaprielian has for sure been at his best at home this year as well, going 2-2 with a tiny 1.38 ERA.

Kaprielian could/should in fact be a much larger favorite in this spot in my opinion and that swings the value to the home side.

Lay the price, the play is Oakland

Good luck...Larry

My 9* BEST BET Rivalry Rout is on the Giants.

Off back-to-back losses in which their offense was held to one run in each, I like the Giants to find a way to get the job done on the road and pull off the slight upset here against the defending champs.

San Fran beat St. Louis 7-2 in the opener, but then lost 3-1 and 2-1. 

The Dodgers failed to sweep at Colorado yesterday, falling apart in the latter frames of yesterday's 6-5 defeat.

Here's a great spot for the Giants to bounce-back in as they catch the Dodgers off a road loss and returning home. 

Kevin Gausman (9-3, 1.73 ERA) has been the Giants' ace all season and this is his first start of the second half. He has to be feeling confident despite the tough road start, as note that he's 5-2 with a minuscule 1.36 ERA away from friendly confines this season. 

Tony Gonsolin (1-0, 2.13) has excelled in his time in the Dodgers' rotation and it's difficult to say too many negative things about him, so I won't bother. I do just think he's in the wrong place at the wrong time though, facing a Giants team which is 8-3 in its last 11 after back-to-back road losses.

I like a rested Gausman to get the better of Gonsolin and for the Giants to bounce back here after consecutive poor outings.

The play is San Francisco.

Good luck...Larry

The third pick of my STP (a 9*) is on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Pittsburgh opened up the second half with consecutive wins over the Mets, but New York rallied late in last night's 7-6 Pirates' loss. 

I think Pittsburgh takes another predictable step-back here as well in this difficult road venue. 

Arizona comes in on the other end of the spectrum, as it lost its first two opening gamees at home to the Cubs, before than rallying for a 6-4 victory here last night.

I like the D-Backs to carry that momentum over here.

The Pirates hand the ball to Chase De Jong (1-3, 5.59 ERA), who was shelled for five runs over five innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Mets about two weeks ago. Over 38.2 innings De Jong owns an unimpressive 33/17 K/W.

Caleb Smith (2-5, 4.54) was annihilated in his final outing before the break, allowing nine runs to the Dodgers over one inning. 

Smith looks to reverse his fortunes here at home in this favorable matchup. Note that he's 1-4 with a 5.55 ERA on the road, while going 1-2 with a 3.93 ERA at home. 

Expect Arizona to build off last night's win and for the Pirates to stumble in the opener of this road series.

The play is the Diamondbacks.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* LAS VEGAS INSIDERS is on the Reds.

The Mets bounced back from a pair of losses at Pittsburgh to avoid the three-game sweep with a late 7-6 come-from-behind victory against the Pirates last night, but I think they'll stumble again here.

The Reds certainly won't be lacking for motivation though after three straight losses at home to Milwaukee to kick off the secondhalf.

That included an 8-0 setback yesterday.

This though is a starting pitching matchup which favors the home side and it's the primary reason I like the Reds here. That and the price.

Also note that Cincinnati is 7-1 in its last eight after three or more straight home losses in a row.

The vistors hand the ball to Jerad Eickhoff (0-1, 4.97 ERA), who has made three appearances in 2021 for the Mets spanning 12.2 innings and he's posted the unspectacular ERA to go along with a poor 1.66 WHIP.

The home side counters with Vladimir Gutierrez (4-3, 4.29), who gave up one run over six innings in a no-decision to the Brewers in his last outing. Of the nine starts he's made this year, five of them have been quality. 

I like Gutierrez over Eickhoff. I think the Reds find a way to get back into the winners circle after getting swept and in this favorable spot.

And as mentioned, the price is great too.

The play is Cincinnati.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AL BLOWOUT OF THE MONTH is on the A's.

Oakland took the opener of this series by a score of 5-4, but then Cleveland bounced back with the big upset 3-2 victory on Saturday.

The A's though are poised to win this series on Sunday with the superior starting pitcher on the hill though.

The visitors hand the ball to Zach Plesac (4-3, 4.31), who came off the injured list to make a final start before the break, and he'd go four innings against the Royals and concede three runs. 

Note that despite a 3-2 record on the road, Plesac's ERA balloons to 4.98 away from friendly confines.

Oakland counters with ace Chris Bassitt (10-2, 3.28), who gave up one run over seven innings in a win over the Rangers in his last outing on July 12th. While he's 6-0 with a 3.88 ERA on the road, he's 4-2 with a 2.55 ERA at home.

One final note of interest sees the A's having gone 7-1 in their last eight in trying to revenge a one run home loss to an opponent in which they were held to two or less runs in.

Expect Bassitt to easily get the better of Plesac and lay this price with confidence.

Good luck...Larry

The third pick of my STP (a 9*) is on the Chicago White Sox.

I had a play on Chicago yesterday in its big 10-1 victory and I think it's going to carry that momentum over here.

The Astros go with Framber Valdez (5-1, 2.98 ERA), who was a bit shaky in his final start before the break, allowing three runs and six walks off six hits in a no-decision to the Yankees.

In fact, Valdez's numbers are "smoke and mirrors" for the most part now, as the 27-year old southpaw has now conceded 14 earned runs with a pedestrian 28/15 K/W over his last five outings.

Chicago counters with Carlos Rodon (7-3, 2.31) who threw a gem in his final start before the All star game, allowing one run and striking out six over six innings in a victory over Minnesota on Tuesday.

Rodon has now struck out at least eight batters in nine consecutive starts and to go along with his tiny ERA, he also sports a sharp 0.96 WHIP.

I love Chicago in this spot and don't think that Rodon is getting nearly enough respect.

In my opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value."

The play is Chicago.

Good luck...Larry

The second pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the Royals.

After yesterday's 8-4 defeat, I like the home side to bounce back and to deliver a series victory on Sunday afternoon.

The Orioles hand the ball to the volatile Matt Harvey (3-10, 7.70 ERA), who gave up six runs off nine hits over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Blue Jays in his final outing before the break. 

Harvey has been down right terrible no matter where he's thrown and I don't expect that trend to change here.

The home side counters with Carlos Hernandez (1-0, 4.98), who has a decent 30/15 K/W over 21.2 innings of work. 

Hernandez has made 12 appearances this year, and none have been starts.

Until today.

I think the 6'4", 250 pound rookie is the correct call here against "gas can" Harvey.

Finally, note that the Royals are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they conceded nine or more runs in.

Great value on the hungry home side.

The play is KC.

Good luck...Larry

The first pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the New York Mets.

There was an overnight pitching change for the Mets, as Jacob deGrom has been replaced by Taijuan Walker.

I liked New York with deGrom going on the runline option, and I also like the Mets and Walker here as well, but in this case I believe the visiting side is well worth the price of admission on the money line.

Walker (7-3, 2.50 ERA) gave up two runs off four hits over five innings in a no-decision to the Pirates in his last start back on July 9th. 

Walker is putting together the best season of his career, as he enters the second half with a highly respectable 1.03 WHIP and impressive 89/30 K/W over 90 innings.

The home side counters with the volatile JT Brubaker (4-9, 4.47), who comes into this one with zero momentum, having lost four straight now after allowing six runs over five innings to these very Metropolitans back on July 10th.

Over his last 23.2 innings of work, Brubaker has now conceded a ghastly 16 runs. 

Look for Walker to fill in nicely here and deliver with another solid performance.

Lay the price, the play is New York.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Chicago White Sox.

I had a play on the White Sox yesterday, and while that pick came up short, I expect the home side to bounce back here on Saturday night.

The visitors hand the ball to Jake Odorizzi (3-4, 3.61 ERA), who gave up two runs over six innings in what turned out to be a loss to the Yankees in his last start back on July 10th. 

Over 47.1 innings of work, Odorizzi sports a respectable 44/12 K/W, but I think he's in over his head here against the White Sox' Lucas Giolito (7-6, 4.15) who gave up two runs over 5.1 innings in an 8-3 win over the Orioles on Saturday. 

The Astros have the best overall offense in the league right now, but the White Sox aren't far behind at fourth.

I think regression is in order for Odorizzi, and I believe the break came at the wrong time for the veteran. Who entered on a roll, but who I expect will indeed take a step back finally.

Giolito continues to grind out wins. He's been better at home than on the road. The White Sox play with revenge here.

It's a PERFECT STORM of factors working in favor of the White Sox in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Nationals.

I had a play on Washington last night, and it obviously came up short in its 24-8 loss to the Padres.

After that humbling setback, I think that the Nationals dig deep and find a way to respond on Saturday night against Blake Snell, who has been a disaster on the road this year.

Washington's losing streak has now been extended to five games after yesterday's beatdown.

Snell (3-3, 4.99 ERA) went on the ten day IL just before the break, so this will be his first start in 13 days. He could be on a short leash. 

As I mentioned above though, while he's 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA at home, he's a terrible 0-3 with a 9.22 ERA on the road.

That leaves the door open here for the hungry Patrick Corbin (6-7, 5.40), who is coming off a victory in his final start befor the All Star game, allowing two runs over six innings vs. the Padres. 

Note that Corbin has been better at home than on the road as well, going 1-4 with a 6.32 ERA away from friendly confines, and 5-3 with a 4.72 ERA in the Nation's capital.

Coming into that contest, the Padres offense had been inconsistent. I say San Diego comes back down to Earth here on Saturday.

I like Corbin in this spot. Great value on the hungry home side.

The play is the Nationals.

Good luck...Larry

The third pick of my STP (a 9*) is on the Angels.

I've won a few times with Chris Flexen and the Mariners this season, but I think Andrew Heaney can, at the very least, match his counterpart inning for inning tonight.

But this is a hitting matchup which favors the home side in my opinion, and it's worth laying the price in the end.

Flexen (8-3, 3.51 ERA) went seven scoreless against these very Angels in his final outing before the break. 

Flexen has been unbelievable over his last four starts, but if he's had one clear weakness, it's been his play on the road this year.

Despite a winning 2-1 win/loss record, Flexen sports an atrocious 6.97 ERA away from friendly confines this season.

Heaney (5-6, 5.38) is coming off a much needed victory over the Red Sox in his final start before the break, giving up three runs with five strikeouts over six innings. Over 77 innings of work Heaney owns a 94:26 K:BB and I think he can build off his latest victory. 

The Angels' David Fletcher has a 24-game hitting streak going. Last Sunday against the Mariners he was 4 of 5 with four RBI's. 

Look for Fletcher and the home side to deliver another victory here to open up the second half.

Lay the price, the play is LA.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the White Sox.

I think these starting pitchers are more evenly matched than what this line is suggesting, and to me, that swings the value to the undervalued home underdog then.

And to say this is a "revenge" game/series would be an understatement, as the Astros took all four games at home over the ChiSox in June, winning by a combined margin of 27-8.

The Astros see Lance McCullers (6-2, 2.94 ERA) take the hill. He's had success against the White Sox in the past, going 3-1 with a 2.37 ERA.

Dylan Cease (7-4, 4.11) counters for the home side. Cease has struggled in two career outings against the Astros (0-2, 7.71 ERA), but off a great final outing to end the first half (allowing two runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Orioles), I like Cease in this spot. 

Finally note, while Cease is a poor 3-4 with a 6.31 ERA on the road this year, he's an amazing 4-0 with a 1.83 ERA at home.

The White Sox have won five in a row and I expect them to deliver in the second half opener at home.

Great value here on Chicago.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Braves.

This is a very intriguing opening interleague series to kick things off in the second half, but I think that this opening contest is one which favors the home side.

The Rays see Michael Wacha (2-2, 4.87 ERA), gave up one run over six innings in Game 1 of a double-header vs. the Indians last Wednesday. Wacha though has been consistently inconsistent all year, as he's allowed at least five runs in two of his last four appearances (note as well that he's just 1-2 with a ballooned 5.86 ERA on the road this season.) 

The Braves counter with Charlie Morton (8-3, 3.64), who enters the second half on top form, most recently posting eight strikeouts over seven scoreless in a win over the Marlins in his final outing before the break.

Over 99 innings of work, Morton owns an elite 114/33 K/W, and he's 8-2 with a 2.91 ERA in all "night" contests this season.

Ronald Acuna Jr. is out of the lineup for the Braves after suffering and ACL tear on Saturday for the Marlins, but now it's just "next man up" for the Braves.

Freddie Freeman has a .274 average, along with 19 home runs and 50 RBI's for the Braves over the first half and I expect the veteran slugger to pick up the slack in the second for his fallen teammate.

Finally, note that Wacha is 0-4 with a 4.91 ERA in seven career appearances against the Braves.

I think this line could/should in fact be much larger.

Great value here on Atlanta at home to open up the second half.

Good luck...Larry

The first pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the Nationals.

I like Erik Fedde and the Nationals to pull off the minor upset to open up the second half.

The visitors see Chris Paddack (4-6, 5.40 ERA) toe the rubber tonight. 

Paddack actually lost to Washington in his last outing before the break, getting shelled for nine runs off nine hits over two innings. 

Paddack has actually been better on the road than at home, but he's still a poor 2-3 with a ballooned 6.23 ERA in all "night" games this season.

Fedde (4-6, 4.59) struggled against the Padres last week as well, allowing six runs over five innings. 

But I trust this Washington bullpen more right now. The Padres were struggling at the plate over the final month of the first half, and they were playing sloppy defense as well.

In my opinion, the stage is set for a minor upset in the Nation's capital on Friday night.

The play is the Nationals.

Good luck...Larry