My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Milwaukee Brewers (7:10 EST).

I feel that this is a bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

Brewers’ ace Zach Davies may only be six feet tall and 155 pounds, but he’s been a beast this year for Milwaukee and he’s been particularly sharp of late, going 4-0 with a tiny 2.31 ERA over his last six outings. 

Davies has excelled in two starts vs. Cincinnati this year as well, going 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA. 

The visitors counter with the equally as hot Dan Straily, who is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA over his last five starts. 

I’ll point out though that the Reds are just 24-49 (-19.1 units) this year in all night contests, while Milwaukee is 32-27 (+7 units) in front of the home town crowd.

After falling 6-5 yesterday, the Brewers now trail the season series with the Reds by a 6-5 margin. I like the home side to bounce back with its ace on the mound and to even that record up. Play on Milwaukee.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New York Yankees (1:05 EST).

Matt Andriese has been as good as Tampa Bay could possibly have asked for this season, I simply feel this is a bad spot for the Rays’ “ace.” 

The home side turns to its best, Mashario Tanaka (8-4, 3.32 ERA) who comes in off a gem vs. Cleveland on Sunday, giving up just one run off six hits over six innings while striking out eight in the victory. Tanaka would throw 21 of 25 first pitch strikes, consistently pounding the strike zone and keeping the hard-hitting Tribe off balance. Note that Tanaka has been particularly effective in this spot all season, going 3-0 with a very respectable 3.19 ERA in all “day” games.

Andriese (6-3, 2.90) comes in off a dud, allowing three runs off six hits and a walk over 4.2 innings while striking out five in a loss to Minnesota on Sunday. Andriese is on a strict pitch count and he was pulled after only five innings in the setback. 

If this game were being played in Tampa Bay then I’d call these starters a “wash,” but Tanaka has a big advantage in The Big Apple in my opinion, making this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. Play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (7:05 EST).

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, for the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching. I think Jon Gray and the Rockies are well worth the price of admission in this spot.

Gray (8-5, 4.26 ERA) comes in off a rare “dud,” versus the Marlins on Sunday, getting shelled for eight runs off ten hits and a walk over just 3.2 innings of work. I’m not going to overreact to one poor outing though, Gray had been super consistent previous to that, not yielding more than three earned runs in any of his six starts leading up, while posting a tiny 1.64 ERA in that span. And note that Gray has been particularly effective on the road this season, posting a respectable 3.71 ERA thus far.

The home side counters with Jake Thompson (0-1, 12.46) who got rocked for six runs off seven hits over 4.1 innings in his MLB debut versus the soft-hitting Padres. 

Philadelphia continues to struggle at the plate, having scored 431 total runs this year, which is the third-fewest in the league. Also note that the Phillies’ .239 team average is better than just the Mets and their .220 home mark is the worst in MLB.

Colorado though is getting big production from some of its big bats, keep your eyes on rookie outfielder David Dahl, who is hitting .358 for the Rockies.

All things considered, I think this is a very fair price, play on Colorado.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (7:10 EST). 

Utlimately I think this is a bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

Tyler Skaggs (1-0, 2.04 ERA) has been very good in his limited time for the Angels. Carlos Carrasco (7-6, 3.17) though has been very consistent for the hard-hitting Indians from Day 1.

The Tribe clobbered the Angels 14-4 in yesterday’s four-game series opener and they have to be feeling pretty confident here in sending Carrasco to the hill, in his last start he gave up just three runs to go along with nine K’s to just two walks over seven innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate loss to the Yankees. Also note that Carrasco is 1-0 with a 1.36 ERA in seven career appearances versus LA.

Skaggs was untouchable in his first two starts after returning from Tommy John Surgery which caused him to miss all of last season, but in his last trip to the mound at Seattle he’d give up four runs off nine hits over 5 1/3’s innings. 

The Angels have lost seven in a row and there seems to be no end in sight to their issues. I think all signs point to a relatively easy victory for the home side in this one, play on the Indians.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST).

I’m certainly not enamoured by Logan Verrett, but I do think he’s better than his counterpart Paul Clemens. New York will certainly be hungry tonight to stop the slide as it’s fallen to .500 (57-57) with some recent shoddy play, losing two of three to the Tigers, before then dropping all three to the Diamondbacks this week. 

Clemens (1-2, 4.61 ERA) has been inconsistent since coming over to the Padres via trade and owns a pedestrian 4.00 ERA in all night contests this year.

Verrett (3-7, 4.66) has struggled in a starters role as well for the most part, but he’s been decent at home by posting a respectable 3.53 ERA thus far.

I’ll point out that San Diego is a brutal 33-52 (-5.9 units) this season vs. right-handed starters, while New York is already 8-5 (+1.6 units) this year after three or more consecutive losses.

New York isn’t out of the playoff picture yet and I think the team still has some fight left in it. The correct call in this matchup is on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST).

Both Carolos Rodon and Andrew Cashner have looked brilliant at times this year, but they’ve also looked pretty poor in others. I think this one favors Cashner and the home side though.

Rodon (2-8, 4.49 ERA) comes in off a decent outing versus Baltimore on Saturday, giving up two runs off five hits over six innings, not factoring into the decision. Rodon though has struggled in this spot all year, just 1-6 with a ballooned 4.96 ERA in all night games.

Cashner (4-8, 4.96) comes in off an outing to forget on Saturday at hitter friendly Coors Field, giving up seven earned runs off eight hits over five innings. If there was a silver-lining in the rough outing though, it was that Cashner struck out five and walked just one batter. Cashner has been a “Jekyll and Hyde” hurler this year, going 0-5 with a 7.03 ERA in all road contests, compared to 4-3 with a 3.35 ERA in friendly confines.

Slugger Giancarlo Stanton returns to a Fish starting lineup desperate in need of a spark after getting shut down by the Giants this week

Note that the Chicago bullpen is taxed after having to work eight innings after starter Miguel Gonzalez left after just 21 pitches with a strained groin on Thursday. 

I think the home side responds after the poor performance vs. San Francisco and finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night, play on the Marlins.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST).

One of these pitchers has struggled with consistency all year, while the other is putting together the finest campaign of his career. All things considered, I think we’re getting great value on the home side in this one.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Miguel Gonzalez (2-6, 4.09 ERA) who most recently went six innings and gave up four runs off ten hits while striking out just one in a loss to Baltimore on Friday. Last year Gonzalez was 0-4 with a 6.82 ERA in August and in two outings vs. KC this season, he’s 0-1 with a 3.85 ERA and .286 BAA.

Danny Duffy (8-1, 2.98) gets the call for the home side, he’s been a revelation for the Royals this year as he’d come out of the bullpen a few months ago and has made the most of his opportunity. Duffy has excelled in this spot all season, going 4-0 with a 3.67 ERA at home and 7-1 with a 3.40 ERA in all night games.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, for the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, there’s no question that Duffy has a huge advantage over his erratic counterpart. The correct move is on the Royals in this one.

Good luck…Larry

This is an 8* Situational Stunner on the Baltimore Orioles (3:35 EST).

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I think that Baltimore and ace Chris Tillman (14-4, 3.50 ERA) have a bigger advantage in this matchup than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Tillman (14-4, 3.50 ERA) hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s probably been better than what the Orioles realistically expected before the season started. Tillman has been particularly effective on the road, posting a very respectable 3.25 ERA and note that he’s a perfect 5-0 with a 3.46 ERA in all day contests thus far.

Oakland counters with Andrew Triggs (0-0, 5.35), who was recalled on Friday to make this start. Triggs is an unknown for the most part and he’s spent most of his time this year throwing from the pen with Triple-A Tacoma and Seattle. He’s struggled in his limited time when performing for the big club though and I certainly believe he’s being thrown to the wolves today in having to face the hard-hitting Orioles.

For this pick I’m focusing completely on the starting pitching. Tillman is putting together one of his finest campaigns of his career, while Triggs is a deer caught in the spotlight. All things considered, I think we’re getting a great price on the visitors, play on Baltimore.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Detroit Tigers (10:10 EST).

The Mariners rallied late to force extras and then managed to gut out the 6-5 victory in 15 innings last night. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting the visitors to responded this evening.

For my “PERFECT STORM” plays, I’m alway on the look out for a great “situation” to exploit. 

In my opinion, this is a great “situational” play. Seattle is inching its way back into playoff contention and has to liking it chances, as after today’s game vs. fellow wild-card hoepful Detroit, the M’s embark on a 16-game stretch that features five opponents all at or below the .500 mark. 

After last night’s epic walk off victory and with an extremely favorable part of its schedule upcoming, I think the home side has a predictable letdown today.

Detroit plays with double revenge, as it will be looking to avoid the series sweep tonight. The Tigers have to be liking their chances today in sending the resurgent Justin Verlander (12-6, 3.52 ERA) to the hill, over his past seven starts he’s 5-0 with a tiny 1.85 ERA, seemingly now having fully regained his old Cy Young form.

The home side counters with Felix Hernandez (6-4, 3.55) who has looked a bit better of late, but who does own a pedestrain 4.05 ERA in all night contests to date.

I’ll point out that Detroit is 29-23 (+7.8 units) in its last 52 following three or more consecutive losses, while Seattle is already 5-8 (-4 units) this season after three or more consecutive victories.

It is indeed a PERFECT STORM of factors working in favor of the Tigers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST).

There is only one active pitcher who has beaten every single team in Major League Baseball and that’s the Cubs’ John Lackey. The Mets’ Bartolo Colon can join the exclusive club this evening with a victory over Arizona though, while also helping his struggling team string together a couple of wins for the first time in over a month.

New York came out flat in yesterday’s 5-3 series opener: “It's kind of like it's been one step forward and two steps back for us," New York second baseman Neil Walker assessed. "We're playing hard. This is a hard time of the year. This is a grind-it-out (time) of year."

Colon (10-6, 3.46 ERA) has to be liking his chances today as he comes in with a ton of momentum after allowing just one run over seven innings to beat the Yankees 4-1 on Thursday. 

The visitors counter with the volatile Robbie Ray (5-11, 4.83), who has dropped his last three outings and who owns a rather pedestrian 4.25 ERA road record.

I’ll point out that Arizona is a horrible 31-51 (-18.5 units) vs. right-handed starters this year, while New York is 122-88 (+8.8 units) vs. teams with losing records.

I like Colon to complete the historic feat and to outduel his erratic counterpart. Play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Washington Nationals (4:05 EST).

The Nationals took two of three from the Giants over the weekend and had a letdown in yesterday’s 3-1 loss to the Indians. With lowly Atlanta coming to town on Friday, Washington has nothing to look ahead to and I think the focused home side finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Cleveland hands the ball to Josh Tomlin (11-4, 3.81 ERA), who comes in off his worst outing of the season, giving up seven earned runs off nine hits over just 4 2/3’s innings vs. the Yanks. 

Washington likely won’t have slugger Bryce Harper in the line-up, but it still has to be feeling pretty confident in sending Gio Gonzalez (7-9, 4.13) to the hill. Gonzalez started the year on fire and then regressed in June, but the southpaw has once again “righted the ship,” having gone 3-1 with a highly respectable 2.03 ERA over his last five starts, including giving up just two runs over seven innings in a no-decision vs. the Indians on July 16th. Gonzalez has in fact dominated the Tribe throughout his career, in eight lifetime meetings he’s gone 5-0 with a tiny 1.07 ERA. 

With a four game series vs. the Angels at home starting tomorrow, I think the Indians get caught looking ahead and the Nationals take full advantage. 

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (10:10 EST).

Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but I think this one favors Wade Miley and the hard-hitting Orioles.

Miley (7-9, 5.08 ERA) continued his sub-par campaign for his new team on Thursday, giving up four runs off eight hits while also striking out five over five innings versus Texas. 

The home side counters with Zach Neal (1-1, 5.25) who for the most part has been used in relief situations this year. Neal has struggled in almost every facet in his limited time and is being pressed into starting service out of necessity. 

I’ll give Miley the nod in this matchup. I won’t try to convince you that Miley is a great pitcher who has just had some tough breaks this year, as that’s not the case. Miley has struggled with consistency, but if recent history is any precedence, then he has to be loving his chances for a bounce back performance today as he’d face the A’s twice last year and go a sparkling 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA. 

Look for Miley to outduel his younger counterpart and for the visitors to find a way to get the job done once it’s all said and done. Play on the Orioles.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago White Sox (8:15 EST).

While he hasn’t been at his best recently, I’m still going to give White Sox’ ace Chris Sale the big nod in this matchup and all things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting great value on the visitors tonight.

Sale (14-5, 3.12 ERA) took a loss vs. Detroit on Wednesday despite going eight-innings and giving up only two runs off six hits and one walk while striking out ten. Sales’ 14-5 record is impressive, but he’s fallen victim to lack of support many times this year and it could be even better. Note that he ranks in the top five for wins, strikeouts, complete games, WHIP and innings pitched in the AL. Also note that he’s 7-3 with a 2.16 ERA on the road this year.

The Royals counter with Edinson Volquez (8-10, 4.99) who most recently gave up eight runs off 11 hits and three walks in a setback to Tampa Bay on Wednesday. Note that Volquez is a poor 7-9 with a 5.11 ERA in all night games this season.

Chicago has lost four straight Sale starts, but I think that trend ends this evening. The Royals offense isn’t lighting up the scoreboard either this season, in my opinion this matchup highly favors the visitors. Play on the White Sox.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST).

I like the Marlins to bounce back here after losing in extras on Monday. I had Miami in that one and it would let a large mid-game lead slip away, only to then see the Fish tie it and push it into extra innings, before then eventually succumbing. 

Matt Moore (7-7, 4.04 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, he most recently gave up two runs to go along with six walks over six innings in a no-decision vs. the Phillies on Thursday. It was a decent debut, but note that Moore has been poor on the road this year, going just 2-4 with a pedestrian 4.75 ERA thus far.

The home side counters with Tom Koehler (8-8, 4.05), who I think comes in under the radar today, he’d most recently allow just one run off five hits while striking out seven and walking only one in an unfortunate no-decision versus the Cubs on Wednesday. Koehler has now given up just two earned runs in his last 20 innings of work (0.90 ERA). Note that he’s a very respectable 6-3 with a 3.45 ERA in all night games this year.

Moore will surely benefit in working with the likes of Giants’ all star catcher Buster Posey, but it will take time for the two to build any real chemistry. Koehler comes in focused and red hot, the value is simply too good to turn down in my opinion. Play on the Marlins.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Colorado Rockies (3:10 EST).

I had a play on the Rangers yesterday and feel a bit “lucky” to have cashed that one as Texas would rally late. Despite his struggles at home though, I think this one today favors Tyler Chatwood and the Rockies.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile AJ Griffin (5-1, 4.05), who quite frankly has not pitched as well as his decent numbers would suggest. Griffin most recently scored a win over Baltimore on Thursday despite allowing three home runs. All were of the solo variety. Griffin has now allowed 12 homers in his last eight starts and that certainly doesn’t bode well in having to throw at Coors Field this afternoon. 

Is there any bigger “Jekyll and Hyde” pitcher in the league than Chatwood? Chatwood (10-7, 3.63) most recently gave up four runs off nine hits and three walks while striking out six in a home loss to the Dodgers on Thursday. Chatwood owns a 1.30 ERA and 1.01 WHIP on the road, but is just 4-7 with a 5.72 ERA in front of the home town crowd. 

Starting pitching is the focus for this play. Throwing at hitter friendly Coors Field is tough for even the best and there’s no question that Chatwood has endured a rough season there this year. I still feel he’s in a better position here than Griffin though, whose home run issues will prove to be the difference in the end in my opinion (also note that Colorado is 42-39, +4.5 units this season versus right-handed starters). 

With this interleague series shifting back to Texas tomorrow, I’m expecting the Rangers to get caught looking ahead and to take the foot off the gas this afternoon. Play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Detroit Tigers (10:10 EST).

Hisashi Iwakuma has improved as the season has progressed, but I think this one favors Tigers’ ace Michael Fulmer and company.

Fulmer (9-2, 2.42 ERA) went 6.2 innings vs. the White Sox on Wednesday and gave up just one run off five hits while striking out four in the eventual no-decision. Fulmer has now posted five straight outings in which he’s induced double-digit ground outs and he has to be feeling pretty confident that he can keep the momentum rolling tonight as he’s 7-2 with a tiny 2.88 ERA on the road thus far and an even better 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA in all “night” games.

Iwakuma (12-7, 3.99) scattered five hits over 7.1 scoreless innings in a victory over Boston on Wednesday. Note that Iwakuma though owns a rather pedestrian 4.00 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far.

Iwakuma has been consistently inconsistent all year, while Fulmer continues his record-breaking rookie campaign. Fulmer has posted four straight no-decisions, but I think that streak ends behind another solid effort. Play on the Tigers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Texas Rangers (8:40 EST).

The hard-hitting Rangers hand the ball to ace Cole Hamels (12-3, 2.89 ERA) who gave up three runs off four hits while striking out six over seven strong innings vs. the Orioles on Wednesday. Hamels came into that contest having gone a sparkling 3-0 with a tiny 0.84 ERA over his previous three starts and he has to be feeling pretty confident that he can keep the momentum rolling tonight as he’ll be looking to improve upon his already impressive 8-2, 1.90 ERA road record. 

The home side counters with rookie Tyler Anderson (4-3, 3.25) who gave up two runs off six hits over seven innings in a 12-2 blowout win over the Dodgers on Wednesday. Anderson has posted four winning decisions in a row, but he clearly faces one of the stiffest tests of his young career vs. this prolific Texas lineup. 

Despite how good Anderson has looked of late, I’m still giving Hamels the big nod in this matchup and that’s going to be more than enough to pull the trigger on the visitors today. All things considered, I think we’re getting great value on Texas tonight.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST).

A couple of the league’s best collide on Monday night, as Johnny Cueto and the Giants invade Miami to take on Jose Fernandez and the Marlins. As good as Cueto has been this year, I think this one favors Fernandez at home.

Cueto (13-3, 2.73 ERA) gave up four runs off seven hits and one walk over 7.2 innings in a no-decision vs. the Phillies on Wednesday. Cueto seemed to run out of gas down the stretch, note that the veteran has the third-most innings pitched in the NL and fourth most in MLB overall. 

Fernandez (12-6, 2.87) gave up three runs off eight hits and two walks while also striking out eight over six innings in a setback to the Cubs on Tuesday. Fernandez looked pretty sharp overall though as he’d go on to induce 21 swinging strikes in 103 pitches. Note that he’s also now struck out at least seven batters in every outing since June, a stretch of dominance in which he’s posted an awesome 96:14 K:BB in 64 innings of work. Fernandez has been almost unbeatable at home over the last two seasons, he comes into this one having gone a sparkling 9-2 with a tiny 2.11 ERA at Marlins Park so far this year.

I think Cueto’s endurance gets tested here and Fernandez continues his hot run in front of the home town crowd. Lay the price on the Marlins.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (2:15 EST).

Kansas City won 4-2 yesterday, but I think the visitors answer back on Sunday afternoon.

Toronto hands the ball to Marcus Stroman (8-4, 4.74 ERA) who comes in off an unfortunate no-decision vs. Houston on Monday, allowing just one run off three hits and a walk while also striking out a whopping 13 over seven innings of work. Stroman has now posted four quality starts out of his last six trips to the hill and owns a sparkling 43:5 K:BB ratio and a very respectable 3.29 ERA over his last 41 innings of work. And note that this is a spot in which Stroman has excelled in all year as well, going 6-2 with a 3.25 ERA on the road and an even better 4-2 with a 2.04 ERA in all “day” games.

The home side counters with the volatile Yordano Ventura (6-9, 4.83) who comes in off a no-decision vs. the Rays on Tuesday, giving up two runs off six hits to go along with four walks comapred to just two K’s over five innings of work. Ventura has now posted nine walks over his last three starts, two of which have resulted in losses. Unfortunately for Ventura, a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track, he enters this one having posted a pedestrian 4.73 ERA in Kansas City so far this season.

These starters are moving in opposite directions right now. I think Stroman continues his end of season surge and the Blue Jays’ big bats take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* American League GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Texas Rangers (2:10 EST).

Yu Darvish has been throwing consistently and deeper into games since returning from Tommy John surgery and I’m expecting the former All Star to finally put it all together this afternoon.

Darvish (2-3, 3.29 ERA) comes in off a loss to hard-hitting Baltimore on Tueday, giving up three runs off six hits over 6.1 innings while also going on to strike out a season high nine. Over his last three starts the Japanese hurler has now posted a ridiculous 26:2 K:BB ratio.

The home side counters with Joe Musgrove (0-0, 0.00 ERA) who made his first appearance in the big leagues on Tuesday, going on to strike out eight over 4.1 innings. It was an impressive showing in his limited time on the mound, but clearly the book is still out on the rookie. Note that Musgrove split time between Double and Triple-A this year and in ten starts for Fresno, he’d post a pedestrian 3.81 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. 

These are exactly the types of “situations” that I look to exploit. I’m going to give Darvish the nod in this matchup as I think Musgrove is being thrown to the wolves this afternoon. Look for the Rangers to build off yesterday’s 3-2 victory.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (1:10 EST).

I think this is a much bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Jacob DeGrom (7-5, 2.41 ERA) who comes in off a gem vs. the Yanks on Tuesday, scattering four hits with one walk to go along with eight K’s over seven shutout innings. DeGrom enters August on fire, he’d finish July by allowing just three earned runs in five starts and he owns an outstanding 117:26 K:BB ratio this season. DeGrom and the Mets have to be liking their chances today as he’s posted a very respectable 3.02 ERA on the road this season and an even better 5-1, 2.08 ERA record in all “day” games.

The home side counters with the volatile Anibal Sanchez (6-11, 6.26) who opened August with a decent outing vs. the White Sox on Tuesday by going six innings and giving up just one run off six hits with three walks to just two K’s. Sanchez though has been the very model of inconsistency this season and there’s no question that this is a position in which he’s struggled in already, going just 4-5 with a pedestrian 4.98 ERA at home and an even worse 3-5 with a ballooned 6.00 ERA in all day contests.

Detroit narrowly escaped with the 6-5 victory yesterday, but all signs point to a letdown this afternoon. DeGrom is flirting with Cy Young contention, while Sanchez is in the rotation due to necessity. This is a huge mismatch on the mound. Great value on DeGrom and the Mets in this matchup.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the LA Angels (9:10 EST).

After one inning the Mariners had a 6-3 lead in yesterday’s series opener and the home side would eventually hold on to win 6-4 in the end. I think the visitors will answer back on Saturday night.

LA hands the ball to Tyler Skaggs (1-0, 0.00 ERA) who most recently went 5.1 scoreless innings vs. the hard-hitting Red Sox on Sunday, scattering four hits and giving up two walks compared to eight K’s. Skaggs has yet to allow a run in either of his two starts and I think he can keep the momentum rolling this evening.

The home side counters with Taijuan Walker (4-7, 3.66) who returns from the DL to make his first start since July because of a foot injury which will require surgery in the offseason. Walker made one re-hab start with Triple-A Tacoma spanning 4.1 innings and has been given the “green light” to go tonight. 

I think this is a great “situational” play. Skaggs comes into this one on fire, while Walker will clearly need to work through some rust. All things considered, this is a great price in my professional opinion, play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:10 EST).

One of these starting pitchers has been excellent, while the other has been horrible. I’m expecting the hard-hitting Orioles to build off yesterday’s 7-5 victory and for Chris Tillman to continue his impressive campaign.

Tillman (14-3, 3.46 ERA) has for the most part exceeded all expectations this season and he has to be feeling pretty confident that he can keep the momentum rolling as he’ll now look to improve upon his already impressive 9-3, 3.45 ERA in all “night” contests and even better 6-3, 3.13 ERA road record.

The home side turns to the volatile Carlos Rodon (2-8, 4.67) who returned from the disabled list to get rocked for five runs off eight hits and two walks over 6.1 innings in a loss to Minnesota on Sunday. Rodon has now given up at least four earned runs in each of his last three starts and note that he’s been particularly feeble in front of the home town crowd, going 1-4 with a ballooned 5.06 ERA.

Tillman is clearly the superior starter in this matchup and I’ll also give the Orioles the big nod at the plate this evening. With those two big factors are on our side, I do indeed feel we’re getting excellent value on the visitors in this matchup. Play on Baltimore.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Cleveland Indians (1:05 EST).

Cleveland dropped three of four to Minnesota earlier in the week and then opened its series in New York with a 13-7 setback as well. Suffice it to say, I think the hard-hitting Indians come into this one focused and take full advantage of what I feel to be a very favorable pitching matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Corey Kluber (10-8, 3.27 ERA) who went seven scoreless vs. the A’s on Sunday, scattering five hits to go along with two walks and seven K’s. Kluber has now posted back-to-back solid months, he’d go on to finish July with a very respectable 2.51 ERA and 35:10 K:BB in 32.1 innings spanning five starts. Note that he’s been very solid on the road all year as well, going 5-4 with a 3.53 ERA thus far.

CC Sabathia (6-8, 4.15) jumped out to an awesome start to the 2016 campaign but has predictably regressed as the season has progressed, most recently he was shelled for five runs off eight hits with three walks over 5.2 innings in a no-decision vs. the Mets on Monday. The southpaw has now given up four earned runs in seven of his last eight starts and he was touched up for two more home runs for the second time in a row and third time in his last six starts. Unfortuantely for Sabathia, home field advantage has been anything but this season as he’s just 1-5 with a poor 4.82 ERA in The Big Apple.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching. Simply put, these two veterans are moving in opposite directions right now. After yesterday’s loss, I’m expecting the visitors to answer back on Saturday afternoon. Lay the price on the Indians.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (10:10 EST).

I played Boston in its win over Seattle last night, but I think the hard-hitting Red Sox will suffer a letdown in the opener of this interleague series.

The visitors hand the ball to Steven Wright (12-5, 3.20 ERA) who most recently allowed three runs off ten hits to go along with two walks over five innings in a fortunate no-decision vs. the Angels on Sunday. Wright’s solid numbers are not indicative of how he’s performed of late, after an unreal start to the season he’s now failed to post a quality outing in five of his last seven trips to the hill.

The home side counters with Scott Kazmir (9-4, 4.41) who went 6.2 innings vs. the Diamondbacks on Saturday, allowing four runs off eight hits to go along with seven K’s in what would turn out to be a loss for the southpaw. In his previous 13 starts Kazmir had gone 7-0 with 3.73 ERA. Despite the setback, Kazmir was still sharp, throwing 71 percent of his pitches for strikes, which included a massive 18 swinging strikes. 

I think Wright continues to regress and believe his team is set up for a letdown. Kazmir has been extremely solid and there’s no question in my mind that he offers great value in this spot. Play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST).

A couple of red-hot hurlers collide on Friday night, but I think this one favors Justin Verlander and the Tigers.

The visitors hand the ball to Noah Syndergaard (9-5, 2.48 ERA) who wasn’t his sharpest in his last start and who would come away with a no-decision in the end after giving up three runs off six hits and two walks over six innings in what would be a 6-4 win over the Rockies on Sunday. Syndergaard would in fact throw first-pitch strikes to fewer than half the batters he faced in that one.

Verlander (11-6, 3.54) is enjoying a resurgent season and has been particularly dominant over the last month, he’d most recently throw a complete game vs. the Astros on Saturday, allowing two runs off five hits to go along with one walk and 11 K’s. Verlander now has 155 K’s through 147.1 innings of work. In the month of July he’d go 4-0 over six starts and post a tiny 1.69 ERA without allowing more than two earned runs in any of those outings. 

I think the Mets have a letdown here after their 4-1 win in the Big Apple last night, while Detroit comes in focused after falling 6-3 at home to the White Sox yesterday afternoon. 

Play on the Tigers.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

I think the desperate home side takes Game 1 of this three-game weekend series.

The visitors hand the ball to Anthony DeSclafani (6-0, 2.93 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing vs. the Padres on Saturday, allowing one run over six innings to go along with two walks in what would turn out to be a no-decision for the third year pro. DeSclafani’s sparkling record though isn’t entirely indicative of how he’s thrown of late as he’d receive a win in his previous start despite getting rocked for five runs in five innings. Note that he owns a 3.78 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Jameson Taillon (2-2, 3.52) who comes in off a tough loss vs. the Brewers on Saturday, allowing two runs off six hits while also striking out six and walking none over six innings. 

The Reds have been streaking, having won seven of eight series since the Midsummer Classic, but I think they have a classic letdown here. 

Conversely, the Pirates have been scuffling, going 2-3-1 in series since the break, including getting swept in Milwaukee and dropping two of three to Atlanta just this week. Good news for Pirates fans, slugger Andrew McCutchen is expected back in the line-up after being benched for the entire series in Atlanta. 

I like Taillon to battle deep and for the hungry home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* National League GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Washington Nationals (7:05 EST).

A couple of starters which have seen better days collide on Friday night, but I think this matchup favors Gio Gonzalez and the home side.

The visitors hand the ball to Jeff Samardzija (9-7, 4.30 ERA) who was rocked for four runs off seven hits with two walks in a 4-1 setback to these very Nationals in his last start. Samardzija has yet to post a quality outing since the All Star break and owns a horrible 6.29 ERA and a very low 5.3 K/9 over his last 11 starts. Unfortunately for Samardzija, a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track as he owns a pedestrian 4.43 ERA away from friendly confines thus far. 

Gonzalez (6-9, 4.29) had a horrible June, but managed to turn things around in July. Gonzalez owns a 3.43 ERA in all “night” games this year and he has to be feeling pretty confident with his red hot lineup behind him, note that the Nationals had Thursday off, but would sweep the Diamondbacks from Mon-Wed by scores of 14-1, 10-4 and 8-3. 

I had San Francisco yesterday and feel a bit lucky after it managed to get the 3-2 victory in ten innings. Note that heading into yesterday’s game the Giants had the worst mark in the league at 4-13 since the Mid Summer Classic.

I think this one favors the well-rested home side. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Boston Red Sox (10:10 EST).

I think Boston starter Drew Pomeranz will step-up and deliver his best performance since coming over from the Padres.

Pomeranz (8-9, 3.09 ERA) has so far struggled for his new team, most recently allowing five runs off six hit over 5.1 innings in a setback to the Angels on Saturday. A date on the road is just what the doctor ordered for Pomeranz though, he can leave the spotlight behind in Boston and concentrate on delivering a solid performance in a West Coast park, note that he still owns a highly respectable 2.87 ERA away from friendly confines this season.

The home side counters with Ariel Miranda (0-0, 13.50) who was acquired from the Orioles in the Wade Miley trade and who has been recalled from the minors to make this start. Miranda would allow three runs in two innings in his one career major league experience earlier in the season for Baltimore. He owns a rather pedestrian 3.93 ERA and 1.26 WHIP for Triple-A Norfolk. Once Taijuan Walker returns from injury, Miranda will be sent back down.

I think the league’s most prolific offense takes full advantage of this favorable matchup, while I also expect Pomeranz to find a way to outduel his suspect counterpart. Play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the San Francisco Giants (1:05 EST).

I think this is a bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe, swinging the value onto Matt Moore and the Giants this afternoon.

Moore (7-7, 4.08 ERA) makes his first start for his new team. Moore’s record is not indicative of the way he’s been performing over the last month, as he’s posted a tiny 1.60 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over his last five starts, which includes 33.2 innings of work.  

The home side counters with Vince Velasquez (8-3, 3.32) who gave up two runs off seven hits and two walks over six innings in a loss to the Braves on Friday. Velasquez has been as solid as the Phillies could have possibly asked for this year, but he’s been the victim of poor run support all season (note that Philadelphia ranks second-worst in MLB for runs scored). 

For arguments sake lets call these starters a “wash.” I’m going to give the hard-hitting Giants the big advantage in this matchup though and that makes this a situation too valuable to turn down. Play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the St. Louis Cardinals (12:35 EST).

While neither of these starters instills much confidence, I think this matchup favors Mike Leake and the hard-hitting Cardinals.

Leake (8-8, 4.50 ERA) comes into this one off a victory over the Marlins on Friday despite giving up six runs off seven hits over five innings while also going on to strike out three. It’s been a “bumpy” 2016 campaign for the seven-year veteran, but he’s been at this best on the road this season, going 6-3 with a 4.43 ERA thus far.

The home side counters with Brandon Finnegan (6-8, 4.68) who comes in off a decent outing vs. the soft-hitting Friars on Friday, going six scoreless. In his previous start though he’d get shelled for six runs off seven hits (including three dingers) over five innings in a loss to Arizona. Unfortunately for Finnegan, throwing in front of the home town crowd has been anything but an advantage for the third-year pro as he’s just 2-3 with a pedestrian 4.76 ERA in Cincinnati to date.

I’m going to give Leake the nod in this matchup and in my opinion, that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the opportunistic visitors. Play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:10 EST).

Despite his struggles this season, Cards’ starter Michael Wacha has a big advantage over his inconsistent counterpart today.

Wacha (6-7, 4.38 ERA) would hold Miami to three runs over six innings in a 5-4 win on Thursday. After a poor start to the season, Wacha has slowly started to “turn the corner” as he’s now tossed seven quality outings over his last nine trips to the hill. 

The home side counters with the volatile Cody Reed (0-5, 7.07) who was rocked for six runs off five hits over five innings in a loss to San Francisco on Tuesday. In seven starts this year the rookie has eclipsed the five inning mark just twice. Unfortunately for Reed, a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track as he’s a poor 0-2 with a ballooned 7.20 ERA in friendly confines. 

I think Wacha comes in focused and continues his solid stretch, while everything once again points to a disaster for the struggling Reed. Play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals (9:40 EST).

Washington annihilated Arizona 14-1 yesterday and I’m expecting another beatdown tonight.

The visitors hand the ball to Tanner Roark (10-6, 2.96 ERA) who comes in off a gem vs. San Francisco on Thursday, holding it to one run off four hits and three walks with three K’s in the victory. Note that Roark has been particularly effective on the road this year, going 5-2 with a very respectable 3.15 ERA.

The home side counters with the volatile Robbie Ray (5-10, 4.70) who was shelled for five runs off five hits over 5.2 innings in a setback to the Brewers on Thursday. Ray has pitched into the seventh inning just four times all year and note that home field advantage has been anything but, as he’s just 3-4 with a poor 5.17 ERA in friendly confines.

Roark has owned the D-Backs throughout his career, in five games covering 18 1/3’s innings he’s yet to allow an earned run.

The Nationals collected a season-high 19 hits yesterday and all signs point to another explosive performance this evening. Play on Washington.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (8:10 EST).

One of these pitchers has been scuffling, while the other has gotten better as the season has progressed. All things considered I think we’re getting great value on Lance McCullers and the home side in this matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to knuckleballer RA Dickey (7-12, 4.66 ERA) whose win/loss record is probably not completely indicative of the way he’s thrown this year. The veteran though has been struggling of late, most recently he was shelled for seven runs off four hits to go along with four walks over five innings in a setback to San Diego on Wednesday. Dickey would post a third straight loss and he’s now 0-3 with a deplorable 10.44 ERA and 12:9 K:BB in 14.2 innings of work since the All Star break. 

McCullers (6-4, 3.18) is coming off a gem vs. the Yanks on Wednesday, striking out ten and holding them to just one run off five hits over six innings of work for the victory. McCullers has now posted three consecutive one-run outings and five in his last six starts. McCullers has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as he’s already an impressive 5-2 with a tiny 2.28 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season.

In my opinion, there’s no need to look any further into this matchup than the starting pitchers. Dickey has traditionally gotten better after the Midsummer Classic over the last five years, but that’s not the case this season. Clearly age has finally caught up to the wily veteran. McCullers on the other hand is throwing better than he ever has. 

As mentioned off the top, I think we’re getting great value on the home side in this one, play on the Astros.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:10 EST).

Adam Wainwright has made significant strides over the last couple of months and while Dan Straily has been anything but a push over this year, I’m expecting the Cards’ ace to outduel his counterpart and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. 

Wainwright (9-5, 4.16 ERA) missed most of last year due to injury and he’d get off to shaky start to his 2016 campaign, but he has slowly gotten better as the season has progressed. Most recently he gave up fou runs over seven innings while walking one and striking out four in a war vs. the Mets on Wednesday. Since mid May Wainwright has gone at least six innings in 12 of 13 starts and over that span he’s walked just 19 batters. 

Dan Straily (6-6, 3.84) gave up one run off three hits over 7.2 innings in a win over the Giants on Wednesday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Straily this year, he’s putting together perhaps the finest campaign of his career, but if he’s had one weak point this season it’s definitely been his play in all “night’ games, where he’s just 1-5 with a pedestrian 4.46 ERA.

The Reds will be reeling after the departure of slugger Jay Bruce yesterday, an emotional and mentally distracting factor working adversely against the home side and one which we can capitalize on. All things considered, I think we’re getting good value on the Cards in this one.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the the New York Mets (7:10 EST).

The Yanks stole one 6-5 in yesterday’s Subway Series opener, but I’m expecting the Mets to bounce back with their ace on the mound tonight.

The visitors counter with their best option, Masahiro Tanaka (7-3, 3.16 ERA), who most recently was shelled for four runs off seven hits over five innings in a loss to the Astros on Wednesday. Those types of starts have been few and far between for the Japanese hurler this season and he’s likely been the best player on New York this year.

The home side counters with Jacob DeGrom (6-5, 2.56) who comes in off a gem vs. Colorado on Thursday, going seven scoreless and allowing just five hits while also striking out six in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision in the end. DeGrom has been the most consistent starter in the rotation this year and he’ll now look to keep the momentum rolling and improve upon his already impressive 4-2, 2.18 ERA record in front of the home town crowd.

The Mets sit 2.5 games back of the Marlins in the Wild Card race, while the Yanks have become sellers after moving slugger Carlos Beltran and pitcher Ivan Nova yesterday. DeGrom is tough to beat at home, I think he’ll outduel his counterpart and the revenge minded home side will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. 

Play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SIDE OF THE YEAR is on the Seattle Mariners (10:10 EST).

Seattle will be in a foul mood after it let one slip away late in the Windy City last night. Boston on the other hand comes in off a 5-3 win at the Angels yesterday afternoon and I think will have a predictable letdown in the opener in the Pacific Northwest.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Eduardo Rodriguez (2-4, 6.51 ERA) who earned a no-decision vs. Detroit on Wednesday, allowing three runs off nine hits while also walking three. Note that he owns an ugly 6.51 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Rodriguez has looked better since a month long stint in Triple A, but he’s still allowed a homer in nine straight starts and has a poor 2.38 HR/9 rate, the second-highest in the entire league among pitchers with at least 40 innings worked this year. 

The home side counters with flame-thrower James Paxton (3-5, 4.27) who gave up three runs over five innings while striking out six in a loss against the Pirates in his last start. Paxton’s fastball is being clocked in the 97 MPH range this year, which is the best of any southpaw starter. Paxton is extremely effecient, he would issue just his 17th free pass of the season in 11 starts in the loss to Pittsburgh and he’s also only allowed five total home runs. Note that he owns a very respectable 3.81 ERA in all “night” games thus far.

From strictly a starting pitching stand point, Seattle has a big advantage in my opinion. While Paxton has been far from perfect this season, he’s certainly been better than average most nights and he’s coming into this one off a solid outing. Rodriguez on the other hand has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned.

Safeco Field is not a “hitter friendly” park whatsoever. It’s one thing to mash in AL East stadiums and quite another to produce in the AL West. Boston’s hitting advantage is therefore “nullified.” 

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and that’s what I’m doing for my Game Of The Year. I’m keeping it simple, as ultimately I feel that Paxton and the Mariners should in fact be much larger favs in this position.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Kansas City Royals (7:10 EST).

One of these pitchers has been awesome and one has been horrible. All things considered, I think we’re getting great value on Danny Duffy and the Royals in this matchup.

Duffy (6-1, 3.22 ERA) continued his dominant season in a victory over Texas on Friday, allowing just one run off four hits while striking out four over 6.2 innings of work. Note that Duffy has been particularly dominant on the road thus far, going 3-1 with a 2.54 ERA

The home side counters with the beleagured Chris Archer (5-14, 4.42), whose win/loss record is not entirely indicative of how he’s thrown this year, he’s clearly fallen victim to poor run support this season. Archer has also been pretty good in front of the home town crowd this year with an ERA of 2.95. All of that said though, Archer is clearly struggling through the worst campaign of his career, note the he’s just 4-10 with a pedestrian 4.37 ERA in all “night” games to date. 

Archer could also be distracted thinking about other possibilites tonight as well as his name is one of the biggest to be rumored in trade talks.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in my opinion, Duffy has the big advantage in this one. As mentioned off the top, I think we’re getting great value on the visitors in this matchup, play on Kansas City.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Texas Rangers (3:05 EST).

I had a play on the Rangers yesterday and they’d manage to pull of the 2-1 win in extra innings. I think the home side will build off that victory and take advantage of another favorable pitching matchup this evening.

The visitors hand the ball to Dillon Gee (3-4, 4.54 ERA) who gave up five runs off ten hits and two walks in a loss to the Angels on Tuesday. Gee has been horrible in July, allowing 30 baserunners over 16.1 innings of work spanning four starts. And note that Gee has been horrible in this spot all season, going 0-2 with a ballooned 5.82 ERA in all “day” games.

The home side counters with Lucas Harrell (2-2, 3.38) who was acquired via trade with the Braves on Wednesday. Harrell looked decent in his time for Atlanta, posting a 3.38 EA over five starts (3.69 FIP). 

Texas has taken the first three games of this series and can smell the blood in the water today as well. The Royals have issues across the board, while the Rangers are clearly moving in the opposite direction.

I don’t foresee a letdown here and think the Rangers come in focused and find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. All things considered, I think this is a very reasonable price.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (2:10 EST).

Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but I think this matchup favors Francisco Liriano and the Pirates.

Liriano (6-10, 5.38 ERA) is coming off an outing to forget on Tuesday in which he was rocked for seven earned runs off eight hits over just 3.1 innings of work. Liriano leads the league with 66 walks allowed so far this year, but he’s still averaging a strikeout per inning. Note that in Liriano’s previous start he posted a season-high 13 strikeouts.

The home side counters with the volatile Matt Garza (1-4, 5.74) who gave up three runs off five hits and two walks while striking out two over six innings in a no-decision vs. Arizona on Tuesday. I’ll caution in reading too much into the decent performance though, it was in fact Garza’s first quality outing in his last six starts and note that he’s been particularly horrible in this spot all year, posting a ballooned 6.06 ERA in all “day” games.

Milwaukee has officailly moved All-Star catcher Jonathan Lucroy to the Indians for some highly touted prospects and I think that will be a major distraction for the home side today.

I’ll give Liriano the slight nod in this matchup as well. Play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Miami Marlins (1:10 EST).

I like the home side to build off its impressive 11-0 victory yesterday and think it’s a great spot to pull the trigger on the home dog situation.

MIami turns to Andrew Cashner (4-7, 4.76 ERA), who makes his debut for his new team this afternoon. Cashner has been “lights out” in July, posting a 31:8 K:BB in 26.1 innings of work. 

The visitors counter with Carlos Martinez (10-6, 2.87) who gave up two runs off five hits to go along with four walks over five innings in a victory over the Mets on Tuesday. 

Martinez has been awesome this season, but Cashner’s performance over the last month or so has been just as impressive. I’m going to call these starters a “wash” this afternoon.  

These teams now have identical records at 56-48 as they battle for the second wild-card spot in the National League. I like the home side to keep the momentum rolling after yesterday’s explosive effort and all things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting fantastic value in this situation. Play on the Marlins.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST).

I like the home side to build off yesterday’s 8-3 victory. 

The visitors turn to the volatile Ian Kennedy (6-9, 4.41 ERA) who most recently got shelled for four runs off six hits and three walks over five innings in a setback to the Angels on Monday. Kennedy’s 26 home runs allowed are the most in the league and he’s been particularly horrible in this spot all year, going just 3-6 with a poor 4.86 ERA on the road to date.

The home side counters with Martin Perez (7-7, 4.38) who also comes in off an outing to forget in which he gave up five runs off nine hits over six innings in a no-decision vs. the A’s on Monday. Perez has struggled in July, but he has a big opportunity to stop the bleeding today, note that despite the recent shakiness, he’s still 6-1 with a very respectable 2.69 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

This is an interesting matchup, as both veterans come into this one struggling. However, Kennedy has been a disaster on the road this year, while Perez has been dominant at home. All things considered, I think we’re getting a great price on the hard-hitting home side in this matchup, play on Texas.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST).

I think this is a bigger pitching mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors send Jorge De La Rosa (6-7, 5.70 ERA) to the hill, he most recently gave up two runs over 6.1 innings in a no-decision vs. the Orioles on Monday. De La Rosa has looked a bit better of late, but for the most part the veteran has been a big disappointment this year and he’s been especially horrible on the road where he’s gone 2-4 with a 5.74 ERA (he’s also a poor 3-6 with a ballooned 6.23 ERA in all “night” games this season). 

The home side counters with the venerable Bartolo Colon (9-5, 3.35) who gave up one run off three hits while striking out eight over seven innings in a victory over the Cardinals on Tuesday. Colon was unbelievably effecient in that start, needing just 87 pitches to complete his outing. The veteran will be very fresh for tonight’s start. I’ll point out that Colon is 4-2 with a very respectable 3.25 ERA in front of the home town crowd to date.

I think De La Rosa is getting much too much respect from the oddsmakers in this matchup, swinging the value onto the home side. All things considered, I do indeed feel this is a very fair price, play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST).

I think this matchup favors the home side.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Fiers (7-4. 4.69 ERA), he most recently gave up three runs off nine hits over seven innings in a victory over the Angels on Sunday. Fiers though had allowed ten runs over his previous seven innings of work and note that he’s been particularly horrible in this spot all year, going just 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA on the road.

Justin Verlander (10-6, 3.64) gets the call for the home side, he most recently held Boston to just one run over six innings of work, walking two and striking out five in the superb effort. Verlander has now given up just six earned runs spanning five starts in July. The resurgent veteran has to be feeling pretty confident that he can keep the momentum rolling today as he’s 6-2 with a very respectable 3.39 ERA in front of the home town crowd to date.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitchers and when looking more closely at their numbers, there’s no question that Verlander has a big advantage in this matchup. Play on Detroit.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals (10:15 EST).

I think this is a much bigger pitching mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to beileve. 

The visitors hand the ball to Max Scherzer (10-6, 2.92 ERA) who struck out ten Padres on Saturday while giving up just two earned runs off four hits over seven innings, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his stirling effort. Scherzer was sharp as usual as he’d throw 71 of his 99 pitches for strikes while also inducing a whopping 21 swinging strikes in the process. Scherzer has to be feeling very confident in this spot as well obviously as he’s 8-3 with a tiny 2.61 ERA on the road to date.

The home side counters with the volatile Jeff Samardzija (9-6, 4.22 ERA) who was most recently rocked for five runs off eight hits over 5.2 innings in a loss to the Yanks on Sunday. Samrdzija has regressed as the season has progressed as he’s now been shelled for 14 home runs over his last nine starts. 

You can throw the “home field advantage” out the window here, Scherzer has been a machine this season no matter the location and I think he’s going to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart. 

Play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago White Sox (8:10 EST).

I think this is a much bigger pitching mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Jose Quintana (8-8, 2.97 ERA) who comes in off a gem vs. the Tigers on Sunday, going 6.2 scoreless innings and scattering three hits and stirking out four in what would turn out to be an unfortunate no-decision. Quintana though has now held the opposition to one or fewer runs in three of his last four starts and has been particularly effective in all “night” contests this year, going 4-2 with a respectable 3.05 ERA.

The home side counters with the volatile Ricky Nolasco (4-8, 5.40) who received a fortunate no-decision vs. the Red Sox on Saturday after getting shelled for six earned runs off six hits and three walks over just two innings. The 33-year old has now given up 13 runs over three of his last four starts and has been rocked for at least one homer in six of his last seven trips to the hill. Unfortunately for Nolasco, a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to keep the momentum rolling as he’s a poor 0-4 with a ballooned 5.66 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and one of the best indicators we have in judging a matchup is in “recent performance.” In my opinion, Quintana is throwing at an entirely different level than his inconsistent counterpart, play on the White Sox.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (7:10 EST).

Cleveland is the favorite in this contest, but I think the Tribe should in fact be much larger ones.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Kendall Graveman (7-6, 4.15 ERA) who comes in off a strong outing vs. the Rays on Saturday, allowing three earned runs over a complete game victory. Graveman has won four straight, but if he’s had one weakness this season, it’s clearly been his play away from friendly confines, posting a poor 5.25 ERA thus far.

The home side counters with Trevor Bauer (7-4, 3.65) who comes in off an outing to forget vs. the Orioles on Friday, giving up five earned runs off five hits over just four innings of work. Bauer has a big opportunity to bounce back tonight though and improve upon his already impressive 3.39 ERA in all “night” games.

I’m banking on Bauer bouncing back here and give him the slight nod in this matchup because of the home field advantage and the fact that Graveman has been a complete “gas can” on the road this year. And that’s more than enough reason to lay what I feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price, play on Cleveland.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

I think this is a great situational play. Baltimore was forced to play a make up game in Minnesota last night, while Toronto has had a day off to prepare for this critical divisional battle. All things considered I think we’re getting great value on Marco Estrada and the Jays in this one.

The visitors hand the ball to Kevin Gausman (2-7, 3.77 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing vs. the Tribe on Saturday, going seven scoreless. Gausman has been a hard-luck loser this season as he’d once again receive a no-decision for his gem of an effort. For the most he’s been as solid as Baltimore could possibly hope for, but if he’s had one glaring weakness this year it’s clearly been his play away from friendly confines, going a poor 0-6 with a 4.94 ERA thus far.

Estrada (5-4, 2.94) came out of the All Star break with a little extra time off, having his first start skipped over until the final start in the rotation and it paid dividends as he’d give up two earned runs off seven hits and a walk over six innings in an unfortunate 2-1 loss to the Mariners on Friday. 

Estrada has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot though, despite a 2-3 record he’s posted a very respectable 2.50 ERA at home. 

I’ll give Estrada the nod in this matchup as Gausman has been consistently under average on the road. Toronto also benefits from the weird scheduling quirk with the Orioles having played the make-up game from the day before. 

Play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

10* play on the Chicago White Sox (8:05 EST).

I think this is another great “situational” play.

After his recent tirade and team imposed five-game suspension, all eyes will be on White Sox’ ace Chris Sale today. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting the southpaw to respond with a big effort this evening.

Sale (14-3, 3.18 ERA) last piched on July 19th and went eight scoreless, allowing just one hit to go along with six K’s in an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Mariners. Sale has to be feeling pretty confident today as he’s 7-1 with a 2.08 ERA on the road to date.

The home side counters with John Lackey (7-7, 3.79) who after a great start to the 2016 campaign, has steadily regressed, most recently he was shelled for four runs off six hits over eight innings in a setback to Texas on Sunday. Lackey has now given up at least four earned runs in four of his last five starts.

This is a stage and a matchup that favors Sale and I look for him to answer the bell. Play on the White Sox.

Good luck…Larry

8* play on the Minnesota Twins (7:10 EST).

This is a great situational play. Baltimore was supposed to have Thursday off before starting a crucial series vs. the the Blue Jays in Toronto over the weekend, but instead the team has to play a make up game vs. the Twins. 

All things considered, I think we’re getting great value on the home side in this spot.

I simply find it impossible for the Orioles to not get caught “looking ahead” to their matchup vs. Toronto as they sit just two games ahead of the Jays for first place in the AL East. And unfortunately sending confirmed “gas can” Ubaldo Jimenez (5-9, 7.38 ERA) to the mound is never conducive in trying to post a winning result, most recently he was shelled for five runs in just 1 1/3’s innings vs. the Angels on July 8th (Jimenez hasn’t even pitched since that dud).

The home side counters with Kyle Gibson (3-6, 4.67 ERA) who enters off perhaps the best start of his career vs. Boston on Friday, giving up just two hits and one run over eight innings, while not allowing a hit after the first frame. 

I think there are enough factors working in favor of lowly Minnesota today to pull the trigger on the home side in this matchup.

Good luck..Larr

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Milwaukee Brewers (2:10 EST).

After getting crushed 8-1 yesterday, I’m expecting the home side Brewers to respond this afternoon.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Robbie Ray (5-9, 4.53 ERA) who gave up six runs off six hits and one walk over five innings in a setback to the Reds on Saturday. Ray has continued to regress as the season has progressed and has failed to post a quality start in five of his last six outings. 

The home side counters with Zach Davies (7-4, 3.64) who comes in off a gem vs. the Cubs on Saturday, allowing one run off three hits while striking out four over 6.1 innings. Davies has now allowed just three runs over his last 20 innings of work and he’s got to be feeling confident today that he can keep the momentum rolling as he’s 5-3 with a very respectable 3.56 ERA in front of the home town crowd to date.

Arizona has struggled with offensive consistency all season, yesterday’s explosion is definitely an outlier. All things considered, I think we’re getting great value on Davies and the Brewers in this situation.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST).

After getting crushed 13-0 yesterday, I’m expecting the defending champions to bounce back this evening.

The visitors turn to Matt Shoemaker (5-10, 3.99 ERA) who gave up two runs off five hits and one walk in a loss to Houston Friday. Shoemaker has been decent this year, not great. There’s no question that he’s been a victim of poor run support, but he’s also struggled mightily in this spot all season, going just 3-6 with a 4.74 ERA away from friendly confines.

Danny Duffy (6-1, 3.14 ERA) gets the call for the home side, he’d most recently give up just one run off four hits while striking out four over 6.2 innings in a victory over Texas on Friday.

Duffy started the season as a reliever, but he’s made the most of his time in the starting rotation and he has to be liking his chances this evening as he’s 3-0 with a respectable 3.70 ERA in front of the home town crowd to date.

I think Duffy continues his dominant season with another great outing and look for the Royals to respond after yesterday’s big letdown. Play on Kansas City.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8:10 EST).

Milwaukee rolled to a 9-4 victory yesterday and I think the home side is going to carry that momentum over into this one.

The visitors turn to the volatile Archie Bradley (3-6, 4.44 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits and five walks while striking out four over five innings in a loss to Cincinnati on Friday. Bradley has struggled in July, dropping three straight decisions and note that he’s just 1-4 with a poor 5.32 ERA in all “night” games this year.

Jimmy Nelson (6-8, 3.40) is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up four runs (just two earned though) off four hits over five innings vs. the NL hit leading Chicago Cubs on Friday. Despite the mediocre start, Nelson has now held the opposition to two or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts and he has to be feeling pretty confident that he can keep the momentum rolling tonight as he’s posted a sparkling 2.54 ERA in eight outings at home this year.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I simply feel the value on Nelson is too good to turn down. Bradley has shown flashes at times this year, but he’s clearly been regressing as the season has progressed. Nelson on the other hand is putting together one of his better campaigns of his career and I think he’s going to outlast his inconsistent counterpart.

Play on Milwaukee.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:10 EST). 

I had a play on the Mets yesterday, who would pull away for the 3-1 victory. I think St. Louis bounces back today though with its ace on the mound.

The visitors turn to Adam Wainwright (9-5, 4.09 ERA) who struck out eight without a walk while allowing only two runs off seven hits over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Padres on Thursday. Wainwright has returned to his old form, he’s now given up just three runs over 29 innings of work in July (0.93 ERA) to go along with a fantastic 27:5 K:BB ratio spanning four starts this month. Note that Wainwright is 7-3 with a respectable 3.86 ERA in all “night” contests this year.

The home side counters with Logan Verrett (3-6, 4.14) who gave up two runs off four hits and one walk while striking out three over 5.1 innings in a no-decision vs. Miami on Friday. 

Wainwright has a history of performing well after the All Star break, going 51-28 with a 3.01 ERA lifetime in July and his .646 win percentage is third among active pitchers.

Verrett has been decent, but Wainwright is simply on an entirely different level than his counterpart today. Play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Washington Nationals (12:10 EST). 

I made a play on the Indians last night and obviously feel pretty lucky about that one, as the Tribe would come from behind to secure a bottom of the ninth, one-run victory. A couple of the league’s best go head-to-head on Wednesday afternoon and I believe that the visitors will respond after the late collapse.

Washington hands the ball to ace Stephen Strasburg (13-1, 2.83 ERA) who comes in off his first loss of the year, giving up six runs off seven hits over six innings vs. the Dodgers on Thursday. Despite the sub-par result, he’d still go on to strike out ten. Strasburg now has ten double-digit strikeout games to his name this season. With his first loss out of the way, Strasburg can now refocus down the stretch and he’ll be feeling pretty confident in this spot, having already gone a remarkable 6-0 with a 1.99 ERA on the road to date. 

It’s hard to say anything negative about Indians’ starter Carlos Carrasco (7-3, 2.31) who threw six shutout frames vs. the Royals in his last start. I simply feel this is a bad spot for Carrasco, note that Cleveland is just 16-19 (-6.3 units) in all “day” games this year, while Washington is 27-21 on the road and 27-21 (+3.5 units) vs. teams with winning records.

I like Strasburg to outduel his counterpart and for the Nationals to get some interleague revenge after yesterday’s bitter defeat. 

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (10:10 EST).

Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but I think that Bud Norris and the hard-hitting Dodgers have the advantage in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Chris Archer (5-13, 4.60 ERA) who has struggled with game-to-game consistency all season. Archer actually comes in off a decent outing vs. the Rockies on Wednesday, going six strong to pick up his fifth win of the season. Archer has struck out 147 batters this year, which is tops in the AL. However, he’s also walked 51 batters, which also ranks No. 1 in the Junior Circuit. Archer has been consistently inconsistent in many departments all year, but he’s been particularly feeble on the road where he’s just 4-6 with a ballooned 6.37 ERA.

Norris (5-9, 4.56) hasn’t been any better this year, he was most recently shelled for six runs over five innings in a loss to the hard-hitting Nationals on Wednesday. if there was a silver lining in the setback, it was that Norris would post eight K’s in the process. Norris cruised through June and into July with a 1.78 ERA over a six start stretch, but has since come back down to Earth over his last couple of starts. Still, his 18:3 K:BB in that span is very impressive. And note despite a 3-4 record, Norris has posted a very respectable 3.14 ERA in front of the home town crowd to date.

I’m giving Norris the nod on the mound and the Dodgers the nod at the plate and with those two critical factors on our side, this is indeed a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. Play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (8:10 EST).

After falling 2-1 in yesterday’s series opener, I’m expecting the hard-hitting Astros to respond on Tuesday night.

The visitors hand the ball to CC Sabathia (5-8, 4.04 ERA) who after a great start to the 2016 campaign, has since come back down to Earth. Sabathia was most recently shelled for four runs off seven hits in a loss to Baltimore on Thursday. Sabathia owned a 2.20 ERA in mid June, but since then he’s been rocked for four-plus runs on seven plus hits in six starts, going 0-4 with a deplorable 7.46 ERA. 

The home side counters with Doug Fister (10-6, 3.42) who would go seven scoreless vs. Oakland on Wednesday for the victory. Fister is now 9-3 over his last 15 games, while posting 11 quality starts during that stretch. Fister has to be feeling pretty confident that he can keep the momentum rolling tonight as he’s posted a respectable 3.93 ERA at home and an even better 8-4, 3.59 ERA in all “night” games.

Yesterday’s motivation inducing loss coupled with the clearly superior starter makes this a mid-sized price in which I have no issues at all in laying. Play on Houston.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST).

I think veteran Bartolo Colon will bounce back off a rare rocky start to take advantage of this home field opportunity. 

He’ll face Jamie Garcia (7-6, 3.98 ERA), who has looked brilliant at times this year and pretty poor in others. Most recently he would hold the Friars to just a single run over 5.2 innings to earn a victory on Wednesday. Garcia though had given up four runs in consecutive outings and had been torched for four-plus runs in five of his prior seven games. Note that he owns a pedestrian 4.40 ERA on the road.

Colon (8-5, 3.48) was rocked for a season-high six earned runs and lasted just 4.1 innings in Wednesday’s setback to the Cubs. Colon has to be feeling confident that he can bounce back here though as he’s 3-2 with a very respectable 3.54 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season and an even better 8-3 with a 3.31 ERA in all “night” games. 

Garcia picked up a win vs. the offensively challenged Padres in his last start, while Colon succumbed to the best offense in the National League in his last outing. Suffice it to say, I’m not reading too much into either of these starters’ last trip to the mound.

I love Colon to outduel his inconsistent counterpart and all things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting great value on the home side Mets in this matchup.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cleveland Indians (7:10 EST).

I think this is a much bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and look for Danny Salazar and the Indians to take full advantage.

The visitors hand the ball to the consistently inconsistent Gio Gonzalez (6-8, 4.53 ERA) who comes in off his best outing in months, holding the Dodgers to one run off three hits over six innings in his team’s 8-1 victory on Wednesday. It was his first outing since May 18th that he has given up just one run. Unfortunately for Gonzalez, a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to keep the momentum rolling as he’s just 3-4 with a pedestrian 4.85 ERA away from friendly confines this year. 

Salazar (11-3, 2.75) comes in off a hard-fought victory over the Royals on Tuesday, giving up eight hits and a walk to go along with seven K’s over 6.2 innings of work. Salazar has now struck out at least seven batters in 12 of his 18 starts this season. He’s also posted 125 K’s in 110.1 innings and his K/9 ratio now sits at a fantastic 10.2. 

Salazar has to be feeling pretty confident today obviously as he’ll now look to improve upon his already impressive 5-1, 2.83 ERA record at home and even better 7-1, 2.31 ERA in all “night” games.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitchers and in this case, Salazar is the correct call. Play on Cleveland

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Houston Astros (8:10 EST). 

One of these pitchers has struggled with control throughout the season, while the other has gotten progressively better as the season has worn on. In my opinion, we’re getting great value on the red hot Astros and Dallas Keuchel in this matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Michael Pineda (4-9, 5.25 ERA), whose up and down season continued on Wednesday, this time he’s coming off a gem, holding the Orioles scoreless over six innings of work. I’m not reading too much into that effort though, the right-hander had been shelled for ten runs over his previous 11 innings of work. And unfortunately for Pineda, a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to keep the momentum rolling as he’s a poor 1-5 with a ballooned 5.70 ERA away from friendly confines thus far.

Keuchel (6-9, 4.70) gets the call for the home side, he most recently gave up two runs to go along with six K’s over 6.1 innings in an unfortunate no-decision vs. the A’s on Tuesday. Keuchel had a disastrous opening to the 2016 campaign, but he’s clearly on the way back to his old form as he’s now posted six straight quality starts and has gone two outings without allowing a home run. 

Keuchel is 3-1 with a 1.45 ERA in four career starts against New York and I look for the former Cy Young award winner to continue that trend of dominance tonight. Play on the Astros.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST).

A couple of teams hovering just over the .500 mark go head-to-head on Monday night.

The visitors hand the ball to Justin Verlander (9-6, 3.74 ERA) who comes in off a strong performance vs. the Twins last Wednesday, giving up one run over eight innings of work. It’s hard to say a negative thing about Verlander right now, the veteran continues to produce quality starts and has seemingly turned the corner. I just think that his counterpart is just a little bit better. Also note that if Verlander has had one weakness this year, it would have to be his play on the road where he’s posted a rather pedestrian 4.00 ERA.

Drew Pomeranz (8-7, 2.83) will look to bounce back in his second start for his new team after a case of the “butterflies” in his debut, the southpaw would last only three frames and would give up five runs off eight hits in the setback. It was just the second time in his last 18 starts that he’s failed to finish five innings and it was by far his shortest outing of the year. I’m going to give Pomeranz a “mulligan” in that one, clearly he was effected by the moment, but with that awkwardness out of the way, I believe he’ll return to form.

Boston has been the hottest team in July, going 13-5 thus far and homering in 15 consecutive contests. And I think that spells trouble for Verlander, keep your eyes on Red Sox’ slugger David Ortiz, who is 11 for 29 (.379) with two home runs and four RBI’s lifetime off him. Aaron Hill is 5 for 16 (.313) with two RBI’s vs. Verlander as well.

Play on Boston.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago White Sox (2:10 EST).

I think this is a much bigger pitching mismatch than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Anibal Sanchez (5-11, 6.60 ERA) who gave up three runs off seven hits in a loss to the Twins on Tuesday. With the imminent return of Danil Norris and Jordan Zimmermann, Sanchez’s time in the rotation is coming to an end. Note that he’s been particularly horrible on the road this year, going 2-6 with an unsightly 7.55 ERA.

The home side counters with Jose Quintana (8-8, 3.13) who comes in off a gem vs. the Mariners on Tuesday, allowing one run off six hits to go along with seven K’s over six innings. Quintana’s current 8.2 K/9 is the highest of his career and note that he’s been very solid at home this year, posting a 3.25 ERA thus far.

After dropping the first two games of this series, I like the home side to come in focused on Sunday and for Quintana to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart.

Play on the White Sox.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Royals.

After falling 7-4 on Saturday, I like the defending champs to bounce back on Sunday afternoon and find a way to get the job done once it’s all said and done.

The visitors hand the ball to AJ Griffin (3-1, 4.26 ERA) who was rocked for five runs off four hits and three walks over five innings in a no-decision vs. the Angels on Monday. Since joining the rotation on June 25th, Griffin has yet to throw more than five innings. Over his last five starts Griffin has allowed at least one home run, while also walking ten batters and hitting two others in just 23.1 innings of work. Home runs and walks are not a recipie for success.

The home side counters with Edinson Volquez (8-8, 4.72) who comes in off a great outing vs. the hard-hitting Indians on Monday, giving up two runs off four hits to go along with six K’s over seven innings in what would turn out to be an unforutnate no-decision. Since getting rocked for a season-high 12 runs on June 24th vs. the Astros, Volquez has now posted three quality starts out of his last four trips to the hill. Volquez will be feeling confident he can keep the momentum rolling today as he’s a respectable 6-3 with a 4.09 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

For the most MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I think Volquez is getting little respect in this matchup. Play on the Royals.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (1:35 EST).

The visitors hand the ball to Corey Kluber (9-8, 3.42 ERA) who went seven scoreless vs. the Royals on Monday, scattering five hits to go along with eight K’s. Kluber has turned the corner after a rough start to the 2016 campaign and has been particularly effective on the road, going 5-4 with a respectable 3.50 ERA.

The home side counters with Vance Worley (2-1, 3.16) who was rocked for three runs off three hits with four walks over just 4.1 innings in a loss to the Yankees on Tuesday. It was Worley’s third start of the year and he’ll once again be tested today by this explosive Indians lineup.

Worley has been decent as a reliever this season, but his inability to go deep as a starter will prove to be the difference in the outcome of this contest. For arguments sake, lets call these line-ups a “wash.” Kluber though gets the big nod on the bump and all things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting great value in this matchup.

Play on Cleveland.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Oakland Athletics (9:05 EST).

Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but I think Kendall Graveman and the A’s offer great value in this spot.

I had a play on Oakland’s 1-0 win over the Rays last night and I think the team builds off that victory.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Drew Smyly (2-11, 5.64 ERA) whose record and ERA rank the highest among all pitchers who have thrown at least 90 innings this year. Smyly enters this game having given up least four earned runs in five consecutive outings and is a horrible 2-5 with a ballooned 6.28 ERA on the road this year.

Graveman (6-6, 4.25) comes in off a win vs. Houston on Monday, allowing three runs off seven hits and a walk with five K’s over seven innings. Graveman has now posted three straight quality starts and he’s given up just a single home run in his last five trips to the hill. Note that despite a 2-3 record at home, he’s posted a very respectable 2.91 ERA.

No need to overanalyze this one, these two starters are moving in opposite directions and all things considered, I feel we’re getting fantastic value in this matchup. Play on Oakland.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the LA Dodgers (7:15 EST).

I think this is a bigger pitching mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Kenta Maeda (8-7, 3.25 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget in which he gave up five runs off seven hits and a walk over just 4.1 innings in a setback to Arizona on Sunday. Maeda would finish with five K’s in the sub-par effort. Maeda now looks to bounce back and improve upon his already impressive 5-2, 3.31 ERA road record.

The home side counters with Mike Leake (7-7, 4.00) who comes in off his best outing of the year, holding San Diego to a single run off six hits while also posting 11 K’s. I’m going to caution in reading too much into that performance though. Leake’s fastball is still hovering right around the 90 MPH mark and his breaking pitch is not elite level, note that in seven MLB season’s he’s yet to post a K/9 of 7.0 or better. Also note that Leake is just 2-4 with a 4.11 ERA at home this year.

After last night’s marathon win, the Cards fifth straight, I think the home side is set up for a letdown today. I like Maeda to outduel his inconsistent counterpart and all things considered, I do definitely feel that we’re getting great value in this matchup.

Play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST).

The Fish lost 5-2 yesterday and will now look to bounce back with their ace on the mound.

It’s an “ace off” on Saturday night, as New York will send Jacob DeGrom (6-4, 2.38 ERA) to the hill, he’s coming off a gem vs. the Phillies, holding them to just one hit in a complete-game effort. It’s hard to say anything negative about DeGrom obviously, I simply feel this is a bad situation for him.

The Marlins counter with Jose Fernandez (11-4, 2.53) who also comes into this one off a great outing, holding Philadelphia to two runs over 6.1 innings while also striking out 14 in the unfortunate no-decision. Since May 1st Fernandez has allowed more than two runs in just three starts and during that span he’s struck out double-digit batters six times. Note that he’s 8-1 with a tiny 1.53 ERA at home this year as well.

Miami will be eager to bounce back here, it holds just a 1/2 game lead over the Mets for the second Wild Card spot. As good as DeGrom has been, he’s on Fernandez’s turn now, the Miami starter is an incredible 25-1 with a tiny 1.43 ERA lifetime at Marlins Park. I’m banking on his run of dominance in front of the home town crowd to continue, play on the Marlins.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oakland Athletics (10:05 EST).

I had a play on Oakland last night and it would fall 7-3 to Tampa Bay. I think the home side will bounce back this evening though and all things considered, I feel we’re getting an excellent price in this matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Jake Odorizzi (4-5, 4.39 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing vs. Baltimore on Sunday, giving up two runs off seven hits over six innings. I’ll caution in reading too much into the effort though as it was his first quality start since mid June and just his seventh on the season in 20 trips to the hill. Note that Odorizzi owns a poor 5.17 ERA on the road to date.

The home side counters with Sean Manaea (3-5, 5.13) who comes in off an unfortunate no-decision vs. Houston on Sunday, going seven scoreless while striking out six and walking no one. Manaea will now be looking to improve upon his already solid 3-2, 3.93 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season.

I think these starters are moving in opposite directions and love Manaea to build off his latest performance. Play on the A’s.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Tigers (8:10 EST).

One of these pitchers is in contention for “Rookie of the Year,” while the other is likely headed back to the bullpen after this start. Suffice it to say, I think that Michael Fulmer and the Tigers are getting little respect in this spot.

Fulmer (9-2, 2.13 ERA) would receive an unfortunate no-decisoin vs. the Royals on Sunday, going eight innings and allowing just two runs off six hits with one walk and five K’s. Fulmer has now posted three straight quality outings in July and eight quality starts in his last ten trips to the hill. Note that Fulmer has been particularly impressive on the road this season, going 7-2 with a tiny 2.43 ERA.

The home side counters with Jacob Turner (0-1, 18.00) who was shelled for eight runs off seven hits and three walks over just four innings in a setback to the Angels on Sunday. With Carlos Rodon returning from the DL shortly, Turner is expected to return to the bullpen after this start.

I like the Tigers to build off yesterday’s 2-1, rain-shortened victory and for Fulmer to easily outduel his struggling counterpart. Play on the Tigers.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (7:05 EST).

I think the Giants will take Game 1 of this interleague series.

The visitors hand the ball to ace Madison Bumgarner (10-5, 2.12 ERA) who comes in off a rare dud vs. the Friars on Friday, giving up four runs off seven hits over six innings, still managing to strike out nine in the setback. Bumgarner entered that start riding a 15-innings scoreless streak and is a very impressive 5-3 with a tiny 2.75 ERA on the road this year. 

The home side counters with Masahiro Tanaka (7-2, 3.15) who comes in off a gem vs. the Red Sox on Sunday, allowing just one run across six innings of work. Tanaka though had been rocked in his previous start and has been a bit inconsistent over the last month. Also note that despite owning a 3-1 record at home, his ERA is a poor 4.71 in The Big Apple.

San Francisco will be desperate here as it looks to break its five game slide since the All Star break, while New York is now primed for a letdown after its four-game win streak ended in yesterday’s 4-1 loss to the Orioles.

All things considered, I think we’re getting a great price on the Giants in this one.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Oakland A’s (10:05 EST).

A couple of starting pitchers who have seen better days go head-to-head on Thursday night, but I think this one favors the A’s and Sonny Gray.

The visitors hand the ball to Matt Moore (5-7, 4.33 ERA) who actually comes in off a decent outing vs. the Orioles on Saturday, giving up two earned runs over 7.1 innings of work. Moore has looked better of late, but I’m going to caution in reading too much into that quite yet, note that this has been a spot in which he’s struggled in all year, going 0-4 with a poor 5.93 ERA on the road to date.

Gray (4-8, 5.12) gave up three earned runs off six hits over six innings in a 5-4 win over the hard-hitting Blue Jays on Saturday. Gray has now posted four quality starts in his last five trips to the hill and he has to be feeling pretty confident today as Tampa Bay is an atrocious 25-45 (-25.7 units) vs. right-handed starters this year.

I’m banking on Gray outdueling his volatile counterpart and all things considered, I feel we’re getting an excellent price in this matchup. Play on Oakland.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Chicago White Sox (8:10 EST).

A couple of starters who have seen better days collide on Thursday night, but I think this matchup favors James Shields and the home side.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Pelfrey (2-9, 4.95 ERA) who was rocked for five runs off four hits over just 1.2 innings in a setback to Kansas City on Saturday. Pelfrey would walk four and strike out none in the pathetic effort. It was his shortest outing of the year and it won’t get any easier in Chicago this evening as he’s a poor 1-7 with a 5.19 ERA in all “night” contests this season.

Shields (4-11, 5.10) comes in off a gem, giving up just one run over eight innings in an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Angels on Saturday. Shields has been spectacular over the last month in posting a tiny 1.91 ERA and I think he’s being severely undervalued in this matchup.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitchers and in this case, everything points to Shields and the White Sox as the correct call in this particular contest.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Baltimore Orioles (1:05 EST).

After winning four straight, including the first three in this series, I think the Yankees have a letdown today. New York welcomes the San Francisco Giants to town over the weekend and I think it’s going to “look past” the Orioles this afternoon.

Baltimore on the other hand is scuffling and will be determined to salvage the finale of this four game series.

The visitors have to be feeling pretty confident in sending ace Chris Tillman (13-2, 3.29 ERA) to the hill, he’d most recently give up one earned run off four hits and three walks over seven innings in Saturday’s 2-1 win over Tampa Bay. It was Tillman’s third straight seven-inning, one run effort and his third consecutive winning decision overall. I’ll point out that Tillman has been very steady on the road as well this season, going 5-2 with a 3.38 ERA.

The home side counters with the struggling CC Sabathia (5-7, 3.94) who was crushed for five runs off nine hits and three walks over 5.1 innings in his team’s 5-2 loss to Boston on Saturday. The southpaw has now been shelled for 27 runs (25 of them of the “earned” variety) off 39 hits and ten walks over 28.1 innings of work. 

I’ll point out that home field advantage has been anything but for Sabathia this year as he’s just 1-4 with a poor 4.73 ERA in New York so far this season. 

This is a great situational play and there’s no doubt that the price is right. Play on the Orioles.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (7:05 EST).

Neither of these starting pitchers instills much confidence, but I think the home side will build off its two straight victories to open this series and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night once again.

The visitors hand the ball to Yovani Gallardo (3-1, 5.77 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits and four walks over five innings in a no-decision vs. the Angels on Saturday. Gallardo has been consistently inconsistent this season, posting just one quality start in his nine outings this year. And unfortunately a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered for Gallardo to get untracked as he’s a poor 1-1 with a 7.39 ERA away from friendly confines thus far.

The home side counters with Michael Pineda (3-9, 5.56), who will look to return to his June form which saw him post a solid 2.75 ERA. 

Pineda will be backed by a team which has won seven of its last ten and which is 3-2 during what many feel to be a crucial homestand for the Evil Empire, the outcome of which will determine if New York is a buyer or a seller on the August 1st non-waiver trade deadline.

For arguments sake, lets call these inconsistent starters a “wash.” New York though has a chance to move to two games over .500 and continue its surge back into the wild card picture with a victory today. I’m banking on that momentum to be carried over here. Play on the Yankees.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (3:35 EST). 

I think this is a much bigger pitching mismatch than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to veteran Doug Fister (9-6, 3.64 ERA) who comes in off a win vs. the Mariners on Friday, holding them to three runs with three K’s over five innings of work. Fister hasn’t been spectacular this year, but he’s been consistently solid, sporting a respectable 3.64 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP through 111.1 innings of work. And note that he’s been particularly effective on the road this season, 6-3 with a 3.39 ERA thus far.

The home side counters with Daniel Mengden (1-4, 5.54) who was rocked for six runs off six hits with three walks over just 3.1 innings in a very fortunate no-decision vs. Jays on Friday. Mengden has now been shelled 16 earned runs over his last 13.1 innings of work spanning three starts. Note that he’s a horrible 0-3 with a ballooned 6.00 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year (also 0-4 in all “day” games).

After coughing up the late lead yesterday, I think the Astros come in focused and Fister outduels his struggling counterpart. Play on Houston.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (3:10 EST). 

One of these starters has struggled all year, while the other has gotten better as the season has progressed. All things considered, I feel we’re getting fantastic value on the home side in this one.

The visitors hand the ball to Chris Archer (4-13, 4.68 ERA) who was shelled for four runs off seven hits in a 4-3 loss to Baltimore on Friday. Archer has now lost six straight and unfortunately for the beleagured right-hander, a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as he’s a poor 3-6 with an atrocious 6.75 ERA away from friendly confines this season.

Jorge De La Rosa (6-6, 5.50) gets the call for the home side and for the most part he’s been as solid as his team could possibly ask for this season. Note that De La Rosa has been particularly effective in this spot all year by going 4-2 with a 4.41 ERA at home and a very impressive 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in all “day” games.

Until Archer can prove that he’s turned the corner, I will be unconvinced of the Rays’ “ace.” De La Rosa has already excelled in this exact position many times this season and I look for those strong trends to continue here. 

Play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Chicago Cubs (7:05 EST).

It’s an “ace off” on Tuesday night.

The break couldn’t have come at a better time for both Noah Syndergaard and for Jake Arrieta, who will each be looking to start the second half with a victory.

Syndergaard (9-4, 2.56 ERA) though exited his final start before the break with arm fatigue. His fastball was dipping into the low 90’s in the fifth inning which prompted the early exit with arm fatigue. He’s been cleared to go and while it’s hard to say anything negative about the hard-throwing right-hander, I simply feel this is a bad “spot” for him today.

Arrieta (12-4, 2.68) struggled in his final three outings before the break and lost to the Mets on July 2nd after giving up four runs in the sub-par effort. I think Arrieta bounces back though, like Syndergaard he’d not play in the All Star game and had his first start after the break pushed back to the final spot in the rotation as to give him as much rest as possible. 

Arrieta has to be feeling pretty confident in tonight, he’s 4-2 with a miniscule 1.65 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year. 

I like Chicago to build off yesterday’s 4-1 win and for Arrieta to exact some personal revenge at the same time. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the LA Dodgers (7:05 EST).

While I’m not sold on veteran Scott Kazmir whatsoever, I do think he has a major advantage today in squaring off against Reynaldo Lopez, who makes his major league debut this evening. 

Kazmir (7-3, 4.52 ERA) comes in off a sub-par outing vs. the Friars on Friday, giving up three runs off six hits over just three innings of work. The southpaw though would strike out five and escape with a no-decision. Kazmir was looking great before that “dud” of an effort, posting a very respectable 3.18 ERA over his previous three starts (and note that he owns a 5-3, 3.78 ERA in all “night” contests to date).

Lopez (0-0, 0.00) obviously draws a tough opening opponent, he’d make just two starts in Triple A and would strike out 100 batters over 76.2 innings for Double-A Harrisburg.

Lopez has shown promise, but the book is still clearly out on the rookie. Kazmir has enjoyed a few extra days off and I think the veteran will come in focused in his first start following the break and outduel his younger counterpart. Play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New York Yankees (7:05 EST).

While neither of these starters instill much confidence, I think that the situation favors Nathan Eovaldi and the Yankees in this matchup.

Eovaldi (7-6, 5.11 ERA) opened the season on fire, but then struggled in June. Since then though he’s bounced back over his last two outings, allowing just one hit and no earned runs over his last 6.1 innings of work. 

The visitors counter with veteran Vance Worley (2-0, 2.87) who has made just two starts in 20 appearances this year. Worley most recently threw 16 pitches in 1.2 innings on Sunday, so he’ll be making this spot start on short rest. Don’t be fooled by Worley’s record and ERA, his FIP of 3.90 is more than a run higher than his ERA and is more indicative of his pedestrian 1.36 WHIP. 

I’m giving Eovaldi the slight nod in this matchup and that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the home side tonight. Play on the Yankees.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago White Sox (10:10 EST).

Chris Sale (14-3, 3.38 ERA) opened the season with some unreal numbers, but has since come back down to Earth over the last month. 

The break couldn’t have come at a better time for the southpaw though and I believe he’ll lead his desperate team to a victory once it’s all said and done this evening.

The White Sox were swept in LA over the weekend, losing by a combined score of 16-1 in the three games. 

Sale now looks to stop the bleeding, he’s got to be feeling extremely confident as he’s 9-2 with a 3.61 ERA in all “night” games and an even better 7-1 with a tiny 2.33 ERA on the road thus far.

The home side counters with the yet to be proven Wade LeBlanc (1-0, 3.52) who posted his first MLB victory since 2014 with a decent effort vs. the Orioles on Firday, allowing two runs off three hits and a walk over six frames. LeBlanc is in the starting rotation out of necessity and is likely headed back to the bullpen when Felix Hernandez returns.

LeBlanc has done “ok” in his temporary role, but clearly he’s not at the same level as Sale. I think this is a great situational play as the White Sox will be eager to atone for their lacklustre effort vs. the Angels.

Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (10:05 EST).

AJ Griffin (3-1, 3.81 ERA) gets the call for the visitors and he’s struggled of late, despite his winning record. Griffin was most recently shelled for six runs off nine hits over five innings in his team’s eventual 15-5 loss to the Twins on Sunday. Griffin has been scuffling for weeks now as he had posted five straight no-decisions before Sunday’s loss. 

Griffin has now also given up a dinger in four straight outings and he hasn’t even made it out of the fifth inning since May 2nd. 

Nick Tropeano (3-2, 3.12) gets the nod for the home side, he’s coming off a gem vs. the Orioles last Saturday, giving up one run off five hits and one walk while striking out eight over six innings, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for the commanding effort. 

Since returning from the disabled list Tropeano has given up a total of three earned runs spanning two starts and 11 innings of work. I’ll also point out that Tropeano is 3-1 with a very respectable 2.75 ERA in all night contests this year.

The Rangers lost two of three vs. the Cubs in their first series out of the break, while the Angels went on to crush the White Sox, winning three straight by a combined 16-1 score. 

I think the home side keeps the momentum rolling with what I feel to be the superior starter backing it in this matchup. Play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Interleague SHOCKER OF THE MONTH is on the Colorado Rockies (8:40 EST).

One of these starting pitchers has looked great of late, while the other has struggled all season. Suffice it to say, I think Tyler Anderson is getting little respect in this matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Drew Smyly (2-10, 5.47 ERA) who was shelled for seven runs off eight hits and three walks over just four innings in a loss to the Angels in his last start. Smyly has now given up at least four earned runs in seven of his last eight outings and note that he’s been paritcularly horrible on the road, going 2-4 with a ballooned 6.02 ERA to date.

Anderson (1-3, 3.03) has pitched much better than what his win/loss record would indicate and I’m banking on the rookie to continue his solid stretch this evening. Anderson has been particularly effective at hitter-friendly Coors Field, going 1-1 with a 2.63 ERA. 

There’s no need to overthink this one, Colorado has the advantage today both on the mound and at the plate and all things considered, I definitely feel that the price is right. Play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (8:15 EST).

Corey Kluber (9-8, 3.61 ERA) endured and up and down first half, but he has for the most part been extremely solid over the last month and a half. I think the former Cy Young winner keeps the momentum rolling tonight.

Kluber would most recently strike out eight and give up just one earned run off five hits over eight innings in a 10-2 win over the Yanks on Friday. Kluber would throw 68 of his 96 pitches for strikes and it was his third quality outing in his last four trips to the hill. Also note that Kluber has now posted a victory in five of his last seven starts and is a very respectable 6-4 with a 3.18 ERA in all “night” games this year.

The home side counters with the volatile Edinson Volquez (8-8, 4.85) who gave up three earned runs off six hits and a walk over six frames in a 5-3 victory over the Mariners on Saturday. Volquez has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerend and note that he’s just 7-7 with a pedestrian 4.74 ERA in all night contests thus far.

In my opinion, Kluber clearly gets the nod on the mound in this matchup. I’ll also give the hard-hitting Tribe the advantage at the plate and all things considered, I do definitely feel we’re getting a very fair price in this one. Play on the Indians.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Atlanta Braves (1:35 EST).

Atlanta fell 4-3 in yesterday’s series opener, but I think it will find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon with its ace Julio Teheran on the hill.

Teheran (3-8, 2.96 ERA) has obvoiusly pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate this season. The break couldn’t have come at a better time for Teheran though, who comes in off a poor outing vs. the White Sox on Saturday, giving up five runs in the loss. It was the first time in 13 starts that he’d allow more than three earned runs in a game and while he’s 0-4 at home this year, he’s posted a very respectable 3.23 ERA (note that he’s been even better in all “day” games with a 3.14 ERA).

The visitors counter with Jon Gray (5-4, 4.67) who was yanked in his last start vs. the Yankees on Wednesday after four innings due to arm fatigue. Gray has been giving the “green light,” but note that he’s just 2-4 with a pedestrian 4.63 ERA on the road this year.

I’m banking on the Braves to bounce back and supply their ace with just enough support to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. Play on Atlanta.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Detroit Tigers (1:10 EST).

Detroit lost 8-4 in yesterday’s series opener, but I think it will find a way to get the job done this afternoon.

I was on the Royals in that one. KC was favored, but I thought Danny Duffy was severely undervalued in that matchup.

I think that Michael Fulmer is also getting little respect from the oddsmakers today. 

Fulmer (9-2, 2.11 ERA) most recently gave up two runs (just one earned), off five hits over six innings in a win over Cleveland on Wednesday. Fulmer still hasn’t given up more than one earned run in any of his last nine trips to the hill and over that stretch of dominance he’s posted a tiny 0.72 ERA to go along with 51 K’s to just 18 walks in 50.1 innings of work. 

The visitors counter with Yordano Ventura (6-7, 5.15) who has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency has been concerned this season, he most recently allowed three runs off six hits over seven innings in a loss to the Mariners on Friday. While it was a decent outing for the oft-maligned Royals’ starter, it’s important to note that he’s struggled mightily in this spot already this year, going 2-5 with a poor 5.67 ERA on the road to date.

I’m banking on Fulmer outdueling his volatile counterpart and for the Tigers to bounce back after getting clobbered on Saturday. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (7:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger pitching mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Brandon McCarthy (2-0, 2.70 ERA) who gave up three runs off three hits over five innings while striking out six in a 4-3 win over the Padres on Saturday. McCarthy has looked sharp in his two starts, going five innings in each to go along with his solid 2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. 

The home side counters with the volatile Archie Bradley (3-5, 4.64) who would give up two runs off seven hits and two walks over six innings in a 4-0 loss to San Francisco on Sunday. Bradley has looked decent over the last month, but he still owns an elevated 1.41 WHIP and his 1-3, 5.87 ERA record at home leaves everything to be desired.

McCarthy has another favorable matchup here and I think he’ll make the most of it, look for the Dodgers to chase Bradley early and for the visitors to indeed find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Play on LA.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Royals (7:10 EST).

I think this is a much bigger pitching mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. 

The defending champs hand the ball to Danny Duffy (4-1, 3.11 ERA), who has been extremely sharp in this spot already this year, going 3-1 with a 3.83 ERA in all “night” games and 2-1 with a 2.04 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with the volatile Mike Pelfrey (2-8, 4.58) who looked decent in a start vs. the Blue Jays on Friday, giving up one earned run off six hits with three walks over six innings of work. Pelfrey has looked a bit better of late, but note that he’s just 2-2 with a 5.70 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

Duffy has been “lights out” in this position all season and I think those two strong trends (night games and road dominance), continue this evening.

Play on the Royals.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SHOCKER OF THE MONTH is on the Seattle Mariners (4:10 EST).

I think the home side is severely undervalued in this matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Lance McCullers (4-3, 3.79 ERA) who would give up three earned runs off seven hits and four walks over four innings in a 3-2 loss to the A’s on Saturday. It was the ninth time in his ten total starts this season that the 22-year old has issued multiple free passes. Note that McCullers is 1-1 with a 6.89 ERA on the road this year.

The home side counters with veteran Hisashi Iwakuma (9-6, 4.25) who looked sharp in a gem of a performance vs. the Royals in his final outing before the break. Iwakuma has to be feeling pretty confident that he can keep the momentum rolling today as he’s 5-2 with a 4.74 ERA at home and an even better 7-3 with a 4.15 ERA in all “night” games. 

I got down on this line right away and have the M’s as nearly a “pick em” (-110). I believe this line will likely climb higher closer to game time, but regardless, in my professional opinion this is a clear pitching mismatch. Play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (2:20 EST).

Yu Darvish returns from re-hab assignment and is being tossed to the wolves in this early start. I think Jason Hammel will find a way to outduel his counterpart this afternoon. 

Darvish (2-0, 2.87 ERA) threw six rehab starts and posted a 1.20 ERA to go along with 19 K’s in 15 innings of work. It would be difficult to say anything negative about Darvish to this point, so I’m not going to. I simply feel this is a tough first start for the japanese pitcher and his room for error will be extremely low.

This is a matchup which favors Hammel (7-5, 3.46) whose last start before the break was cut short after having cramping in his pitching hand on Thursday. Hammel exited the game after allowing two runs off three hits and only walk while striking out six over five innings in a no-decision vs. the Braves.

Hammel has to be feeling pretty confident that he can bounce back here as he’s 3-1 with a tiny 2.89 ERA in front of the home town crowd and an even better 3-2 with a 2.56 ERA in all “day” games.

In my opinion, this is a great situational play and all things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting a very good price in this matchup.

Play on the Cubs.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cleveland Indians (8:10 EST).

Cleveland opens the second half of the season with a 6.5 game lead over the Tigers in the AL Central

The Tribe have been getting the job done with above average starting pitching and a stacked line-up which has the ability to put a ton of runs on the board.

The visitors hand the ball to Carlos Carrasco, who despite just a 3-2 record, has givein up two earned runs or fewer in each of his last six outings. 

The Twins on the other hand sit 20 games out of first place. Minnesota has looked better of late, but handing the ball to the volatile Ervin Santa is not what the doctor ordered to keep the momentum rolling. Santana has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned this year and note that he’s a poor 0-4 with a 5.82 ERA in all “night” contests this season. 

I like the division leaders to make this a statement game this evening and expect Carrasco to outduel his inconsistent counterpart. Play on the Indians.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Tampa Bay Rays (7:10 EST).

A couple of starters which have seen better days collide in Tampa Bay to open the second half.

The visitors hand the ball to Yovani Gallardo (3-1, 5.82 ERA) whose perfomance to date is not indicative of his win/loss record. Gallardo comes in off a decent outing, receiving a no-decision vs. the Angels on Saturday after giving up two runs off six hits and four walks while striking out two over five innings. 

Note though that Gallardo only has one quality start in his nine outings this season. He’s also been horrible on the road, going 1-1 with a ballooned 7.83 ERA thus far.

The home side counters with Chris Archer (4-12, 4.66) who I think has been better than what his win/loss record indicates. Don’t get me wrong, Archer is clearly struggling this year, but there’s also no question that he’s been the victim of some untimely occurences as well. Case and point, despite just a 1-6 record in Tampa Bay, Archer owns a very respectable 2.70 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

Archer’s regression has clearly been the more surprising, as Gallardo’s numbers have been declinging across the board for a couple of years. 

Ultimately though I think the break came at a great time for Archer and with a chance to redeem himself in the second half, I’m expecting him to find a way to outduel his volatile counterpart this evening. 

Play on the Rays.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout WInner is on the New York Mets (7:05 EST).

New York has been hit hard by the injury bug this year, but I think it will find a way to get the job done once it’s all said and done this evening.

Despite dropping their last three before the break, the Mets are in a second-place tie with Miami in the NL East. 

The Phillies got off to a surprising 24-17 start to the season, but would then drop 26 of their next 32, before recovering to win 12 of their last 17 before the break.

The visitors hand the ball to Bartolo Colon (7-4, 3.33 ERA), who is 4-2 with a very respectable 3.04 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Jeremy Hellickson (6-6, 3.92) who for the most part has been as solid as the Philliies could have asked for over the first half. Note though that he owns a poor 4-5, 4.50 ERA in all “night” contests this year.

The break couldn’t have come at a better time for New York, I think it comes into this one focused and I expect Colon to do just enough to outduel his counterpart. All things considered, I do indeed feel this is a very fair price, play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Cardinals are the better team, but the Brewers have the better pitcher on the mound today.

The visitors turn to Mike Leake (5-7, 4.33 ERA) who was shelled for five runs off nine hits to go along with just three K’s over six innings in a loss to Pittsburgh on Tuesday. Leake has given up at least three runs in every game since late May. His numbers aren’t completely terrible, but they certainly aren’t great either, posting just 66 K’s in 104 innings thus far (note that he owns a pedstrian 4.25 ERA on the road). 

The home side counters with Junior Guerra (6-1, 2.93) who comes in off a dominant outing vs. the hard-hitting Nationals on Monday, going 7.1 innings and giving up no runs off two scattered hits while striking out seven in the 1-0 victory. Guerra enters the final game of the first half having thrown 15.1 innings of shutout ball. 

And that’s bad news for the Cardinals, as Guerra now looks to improve upon his already impressive 4-1, 2.48 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season.

I think the oddsmakers are giving Leake way too much respect in this matchup, Guerra is on fire and I look for him to carry that momentum over into this one.

Play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (1:10 EST).

I think the Trbie will bounce back in the finale of this three game set and after dropping yesterday’s contest in extra innings.

The visitors turn to ace Masahiro Tanaka (6-2, 3.12 ERA) and he comes in off a gem vs. the White Sox on Tuesday, going seven shutout innings by scattering six hits with six K’s. His strikeouts are down this season, but he’s giving up fewer home runs and inducing more ground balls. It’s hard to say anything negative about Tanaka, I simply feel this is a bad spot for him.

The home side counters with Carlos Carrasco (5-2, 2.47) who also comes in off a strong performance after giving up one run off three hits while striking out five over six innings in his team’s 12-1 win over the Tigers on Tuesday. Carrasco has now posted three straight straight victories and five consecutive quality outings. Note that Carrasco has been particularly effective at home by going 2-0 with a 3.34 ERA this season.

For arguments sake, I’ll call the starters a “wash.” Ultimately I think that Cleveland is going to be the “hungrier” team, the Yanks are content with their win last night and are already looking ahead to the break and to the end of their road trip. 

All things considered, I think this is a very fair price. Play on the Indians.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Kansas City Royals (4:15 EST).

Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but I think Edinson Volquez has the clear advantage over his inconsistent counterpart.

The visitors hand the ball to Wade Miley (6-5, 5.36 ERA) who actually comes into this one off a decent start for a change, giving up just two runs off seven hits with two walks over six innings at Houston on Monday. I’ll caution in reading too much into the decent performance though, it was in fact just the first time in five starts that Miley had managed to go deeper than five innings. Miley also dodged a potential early disaster in the first inning when only one run scored after he loaded the bases. Miley has struggled in this spot all season as well, owner of a poor 5.23 ERA in all “day” games and an even worse 5.63 ERA on the road. 

Volquez (7-8, 4.87) comes in off a loss as well, giving up four runs off four hits with five K’s over six innings at Toronto on Monday. Volquez was cruising though into the seventh inning, before giving up three of his four runs in the frame. He’ll now look to improve upon his 5-3, 4.22 ERA in front of the home town crowd so far.

I’m giving Volquez the slight nod in this matchup. Certainly he’s struggled this year, but Miley’s issues are much greater in my opinion. All things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting a great price on the home side in this matchup. Play on the Royals.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (8:10 EST).

Vince Velasquez (7-2, 3.34 ERA) has been as solid as Philadlephia could possibly ask for to open the 2016 season. The second year pro is coming off a win over the Royals on Sunday, giving up two runs off five hits over six innings. 

If Velasquez has had one weakness this year though, it’s clearly been his play on the road where he’s just 2-5 with a poor 4.96 ERA.

The home side counters with Jon Gray (5-4, 4.81) who battled some arm fatigue in his last start, but who for the most part has also been very consistent for his team this season. He’ll be looking to improve upon his 3-0, 5.05 ERA record in front of the home town crowd.

It’s difficult for even the best pitchers to throw at hitter-friendly Coors field and I think Gray has the big advantage here over his counterpart. Velasquez has struggled with consistency away from friendly confines and I think he’ll get the hook early in Colorado tonight.

Play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (8:10 EST).

I think this is a much bigger pitching mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The A’s send Daniel Mengden (1-4, 3.48 ERA) to the hill, he most recently was rocked for four runs off seven hits with four walks over five innings in a loss to the Pirates on Sunday. Mengden has been decent in his limited time on the mound, but clearly struggled with control in his last start. 

The home side counters with Colin McHugh (5-6, 4.50) who will be looking to finish the first half with a .500 record. McHugh got off to a disastrous start to the 2016 campaign, but has slowly been turning the corner over the last month and a half, he’d most recently allow two runs off five hits while striking out nine over 5.2 innings in a loss to Chicago on Sunday. 

McHugh has now given up two or fewer earned runs in each of his last four starts and owns a 4.30 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far.

I like McHugh to outduel his unproven counterpart and for the Astros to take full advantage of this matchup. All things considered, I believe this is a very fair price.

Play on Houston.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST).

In what should be an epic pitchers duel between a couple of the best in the business, I think the home side will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. 

The Mets won the series opener yesterday when Wilmer Flores hit a go-ahead three-run dinger in the fifth inning to give his team the eventual 9-7 victory. 

New York is trying to run down Washington before the All Star break, sitting three games behind in the NL East: “With the next three games, we've got to do everything we can to get as close as we can heading into the break," Mets manager Terry Collins said last night. "It's a big series for us."

Washington played without first baseman Ryan Zimmerman yesterday because of an undisclosed injury and he’s expected to sit again tonight.

It’s hard to say anything negative about Stephen Strasburg obviously, so I won’t. Noah Synergaard is also putting together the finest campaign of his career and is one of the best in the league when throwing in front of the home town crowd. I’m calling the starting pitchers a “wash.” 

I simply feel that New York will be the “hungrier” team today and that home field advantage can’t be overlooked in these types of games. All things considered, this is a very fair price in my opinion. Play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST).

James Paxton is struggling, while Danny Duffy is surging. All things considered, I think we’re getting great value on the home side in this matchup.

Paxton (2-3, 4.24) comes in off a fortunate victory over the Orioles on Saturday, as he’d give up four runs off nine hits with two walks over 5.2 innings. Paxton has now allowed 12 earned runs over his last three starts combined spanning 18.1 frames. And note that he’s been particularly horrible in this spot all season, going 1-2 with a 5.19 ERA on the road.

Duffy (4-1, 3.14) has quietly been dominating, most recently allowing two runs off seven hits while striking out eight and walking zero over 8.2 innings in a victory over the Phillies on Saturday. Duffy has now thrown at least eight innings in each of his last two starts and over his last 16.2 frames of work, he’s given up just four runs with 16 K’s to no walks. Note that Duffy has been strong in this position all season, going 2-1 with a 3.96 ERA in all night contests.

Kansas City will be especially motivated after returning home off a 3-game sweep at the hands of the Blue Jays. Play on the Royals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cleveland Indians (7:10 EST).

These two starting pitchers are moving in opposite directions as we close in on the All Star break and I don’t foresee anything changing this evening. All things considered, I think this is a very fair price on the surging Trevor Bauer.

The visitors hand the ball to the struggling Ivan Nova (5-5, 5.06 ERA) who comes in off a fortunate no-decision vs. the Rangers on Monday, allowing four runs over five innings, giving up six hits and walking three. Nova was downright horrible in June, he recorded just one quality outing and would fail to complete six innings in any of his last three starts. Nova has also given up at least one home run in each of his last ten starts and has been particularly horrible on the road this year, going 2-3 with a ballooned 6.17 ERA. 

Bauer (7-2, 3.02) came in in relief in Friday’s 2-1, 19-inning game vs. the Jays and would throw five innings of two-hit, shutout ball. Bauer has now posted four straight victories and has to be feeling pretty confident that he can keep the momentum rolling tonight as he’s 5-0 with a very respectable 2.47 ERA in all “night” games this year. 

I think Bauer should be a much larger favorite vs. the volatile Nova, lay the price with confidence.

Good luck…Larry