Football Archive |
Date |
Match Up |
Rating |
Score |
Result |
Profit |
Lead Time |
Analysis |
12-01-19 |
Browns v. Steelers +2.5 |
Top |
13-20 |
Win
|
100 |
37 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (472) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (471). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (6-5) has won five of their last six games with their 16-10 win in Cincinnati last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Cleveland (5-6) has won three straight games with their 41-24 win over Miami last week as an 11-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: There is the old saying: “Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned.” A pissed off Mike Tomlin might come in a close second. The Pittsburgh head coach was seething after the Thursday night game back on November 14th between these two teams that ended with the ugly fight on the field that resulted in the Browns’ star defensive end Myles Garrett being suspended indefinitely for using his helmet as a weapon. The rough-house did not start then — Cleveland had already knocked out the Steelers’ top two wide receivers in that game with cheat shots to the helmet. The Browns beat-up Tomlin’s team before the final events of that game. And Tomlin will have his team ready to respond. I don’t quote players or coaches often in my Reports but here is Tomlin this week: “We love being in hot-button games. We love being in hotly contested AFC North games … To be quite honest with you, we're not a group that runs from these types of games. We're the type of group that runs to these types of games. We view it as an honor to be the consistent team in these battles.” Add into this volatile mix that the Steelers are a home underdog to the Browns for the first time since 1989 and Tomlin has a treasure trove of items to motivate his team. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog. They also are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up win. Now they return home after playing their last two games on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Tomlin has also benched the ineffective Mason Rudolph at quarterback by tapping Devlin Hodges as the starter. Hodges is a gunslinger who broke FCS passing records at Samford before wowing coaches who have loved his moxie. It is hard to bench a high draft choice for an FCS guy — but Tomlin’s move in this situation speaks to his coaching staff’s confidence in his skills. In a previous start this season in a victory against the Chargers, the Pittsburgh offensive playbook seemed closer to the one Ben Roethlisberger uses as compared to the lack of a vertical passing game that has been a problem with Rudolph. Hodges completed 15 of 20 passes in the win over the Chargers — and he has completed 27 of his 40 passes this season for a 67.5% completion percentage while averaging a healthy 8.0 Yards-Per-Attempt for 318 passing yards. He has thrown only one interception this season. Injuries have hurt this team on the offensive side of the ball with wide receiver Juju Shuster now declared out for this game as he recovers from his concussion and running back James Conner not doubtful with his shoulder. But the Steelers did rush for 159 yards last week — and they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh is scoring 24.3 PPG in their six home games — and they are holding their visitors to just 17.8 PPG along with only 290.2 total YPG. This Steelers’ defense has developed into a top unit with the continued development of rookie linebacker Devin Bush and the midseason acquisition of cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick — they rank 6th in the league by allowing just 320.6 total YPG. Pittsburgh has held its last three opponents to only 14.3 PPG along with just 281.6 total YPG. Cleveland has been inconsistent this season with their talent on paper not matching their mental discipline nor leadership from their rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a win by at least two touchdowns. And while Cleveland’s win over the Dolphins came on the heels of their victory over the Steelers, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two straight games by double-digits. The Browns gained 467 yards against Miami — but they are 13-30-1 ATS in their last 44 games after gaining at least 350 yards and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Browns go back on the road where they are just 2-3 while scoring only 19.6 PPG. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. This also remains a team that is just 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings of these divisional rivals. Tomlin’s teams have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against AFC North foes. And in the Steelers’ last 43 opportunities to avenge a loss where they scored no more than 14 points, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 29 of these games. 25* AFC North Underdog of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (472) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-30-19 |
Alabama -3 v. Auburn |
Top |
45-48 |
Loss |
-114 |
11 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (397) minus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (398). THE SITUATION: Alabama (10-1) enters their final game of the regular season coming off a 66-3 warmup victory over Western Carolina last week as a 58.5-point favorite. Auburn (8-3) hosts this year’s Iron Bowl coming after their 52-0 shutout victory over Samford last week as a 45.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS: The big question for Alabama is just how much of a drop-off will they experience without Tua Tagovailoa who suffered a season-ending hip injury in their win over Mississippi State. But it is pretty much situation normal for Alabama to thrive under head coach Nick Saban when they have the proverbial “game manager” under center. What made Tagavailoa such an exciting talent is that Saban had never had a quarterback quite so dynamic as him in his thirteen-year tenure in Tuscaloosa. Tagavailoa broke the NCAA record in passing efficiency last year before producing another outstanding season this year before suffering an ankle injury midseason. But remember that Alabama did plenty of winning with A.J. Mccarran and Greg McElroy as the signal-caller. Here is something that I have never written or uttered before: I think this offense will benefit from the experience of offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. I was not a fan of his work as the OC with the Atlanta Falcons — but his Red Zone issues there did get better over time. But Sarkisian is unquestionably a wily veteran at this point in his career which includes him serving as the offensive coordinator for Alabama in the 2017 National Championship Game where they lost to Clemson by a 35-31 score. I have confidence that he can dial-up a game plan to help put sophomore Mac Jones in a position to succeed. The Crimson Tide may very well have the most talented wide receiver group in the nation with four future NFL players in Jerry Judy, Henry Ruggs III, DeVonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle. Auburn has an outstanding defense but it is difficult for any unit to provide ample coverage to all that talent. Don’t be surprised if Sarkisian has plenty of new schemes that get the ball quickly to these talented skill position players in ways different than the skills Tagovailoa offered. It is not as if Jones lacks talent himself — of course, he was highly recruited coming out of high school (Phil Steele ranked him his #25th incoming QB). Jones has completed 28 of 34 passes for 510 yards with six touchdown passes and no interceptions in his two starts this season against Arkansas and Western Carolina. And he will get help from running back Najee Harris who has quietly averaged 6 Yards-Per-Carry. I still see an offense very similar to the one that Saban won four National Championships here at Alabama before he called on Tagovailoa to come in relief in the second half to rally his team to defeat Georgia two years ago for his fifth championship for the Crimson Tide. Alabama has still averaged 530.7 total YPG over their last three games — and they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after averaging at least 450 YPG over their last three contests. And while the Tide has averaged 8.5 Yards-Per-Play and 9.49 YPP in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP in two straight games. Furthermore, the Alabama defense will be playing with a chip on their shoulders to make things happen. While injuries early in the season required younger players in the front seven to take on more playing time, this unit ranks 10th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 315.4 total YPG. The Crimson Tide has forced 25 turnovers this season — and they lead the nation by averaging +1.55 net turnovers per game. The weak link for this Auburn team is their offense that ranks just 54th in the nation by averaging 427.2 total YPG. While the Tigers have speed to burn at the skill positions, they are not nearly as talented at the wide receiver positions with reliable ball catchers. Furthermore, freshman quarterback Bo Nix has struggled in big games in his rookie season without the elite talent at his disposal that Jones will enjoy. In losses to Florida and LSU, Nix completed just 26 of 62 passes with just two touchdown passes and four interceptions. And while the Tigers forced Georgia to punt eleven times when hosting the Bulldogs, they still only managed 14 points in that loss. Nix completed 15 of 23 passes last week against Samford — but don’t be fooled by those numbers as he generated only 150 passing yards in that warmup game. Pro Football Focus rated that performance as the lowest-graded of all SEC quarterbacks last week — so it is safe to say that he is not entering the biggest game of his career with tons of momentum. As it is, Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a win at home. Additionally, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win at home by at least 17 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home by at least 28 points. Auburn’s play on defense has helped them play four straight Unders — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after playing at least two straight Unders. The Tigers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 9 points in their last game. Auburn played LSU close in a 23-20 loss — but they also survived one-possession games in wins over Oregon, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss.
FINAL TAKE: Alabama has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Some pundits think the Tide needs a big win in this game to keep their playoff hopes alive but I suspect that all they need is a victory to remind the Playoff Committee and the potential audience in the National Semifinals that this team was on-target for one of the best seasons in college football history before their surprising 44-16 loss to Clemson in the championship game. This team remains chippy for the opportunity for a rematch — and that drive should lead them to victory this afternoon. 25* College Football Game of the Year with the Alabama Crimson Tide (397) minus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (398). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-30-19 |
Ohio State v. Michigan +9.5 |
|
56-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (368) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (367). THE SITUATION: Michigan (9-2) has won four straight games after their 39-14 win at Indiana last week as a 10-point favorite. Ohio State (11-0) looks to remain unbeaten heading into their clinched slot in the Big Ten Championship Game next Saturday after their 28-17 win over Penn State last week as a 20-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES PLUS THE POINTS: Michigan is playing their best football at this point of the season. Since the halftime of their eventual loss at Penn State, the Wolverines have outscored their opponents over those last 18 quarters by a 180 to 52 margin. Over their last four games, this team is scoring 41.5 PPG. In large part, the team finally began to click with the new system of rookie offensive coordinator Josh Gattis. But Gattis also saw improvement in his first year calling plays by adjusting to the Michigan talent while also adding some plays where the quarterback was under center to improve their ability to execute in situation football. However, the under-appreciated element to this improvement was the improved health of some of the key players on offense. Junior wide receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones did not play early in the season as he recovered from an injury while quarterback Shea Patterson finally got back to full health after battling a chest injury that impacted both his throwing motion and his mobility for the first half of the season. Turnovers were a killer for this team early in the season as well — but this team has committed only two turnovers in those 18 quarters since halftime in Happy Valley. Michigan should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 37 points in their last game. Additionally, the Wolverines have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home where they are a perfect 6-0 this season with an average winning margin of +24.3 PPG. Michigan once again has an elite defense that is 4th in the nation by allowing just 267.0 total YPG. They hold their visitors to just 11.5 PPG along with only 226.2 total YPG this season in the Big House. This defense was exposed last season against the Buckeyes when they used their speedy wideouts to quick crossing routes than defensive coordinator Don Brown’s man-to-man schemes could not keep up with. Florida then burned the Wolverines in the Peach Bowl with similar concepts. But Brown adjusted for the Notre Dame game this season by deploying zone concepts that stymied the Irish’s crossing schemes in their dominant 45-14 victory. Michigan has now covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. Ohio State has looked dominant this season — but the talk that this may be one of the best Buckeyes’ teams ever is premature. Despite having some potentially scary moments against the Nittany Lions, this Ohio State team has not endured the proverbial punch in the face that truly measured their character to handle adversity. The Buckeyes have not covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 28 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Ohio State has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning at least five games in a row. Additionally, the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in November — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when favored by 7.5 to 10 points. And while Ohio State has not allowed more than 3.75 Yards-Per-Play in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing four straight opponents to average more than 4.25 YPP. The Buckeyes have failed also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Michigan as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Ohio State was the home underdog last season which helped motivate them to crush the Wolverines by a 62-39 score as a 4-point dog. The underdog has covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 meetings in this rivalry game. As if Michigan was not motivated enough to avenge that loss, but their long-time defensive coach, Greg Mattison, defected to Columbus in the offseason to become the co-defensive coordinator for the Buckeyes to pour fuel on the fire of this rivalry. With temperatures in the low-30s for this game, expect a close game. 20* CFB Ohio State-Michigan Fox-TV Special with the Michigan Wolverines (368) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (367). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-29-19 |
Appalachian State v. Troy +11.5 |
Top |
48-13 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Troy Trojans (342) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (341). THE SITUATION: Troy (5-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their ugly 53-3 loss at Louisiana-Lafayette as a 13-point underdog. Appalachian State (10-1) has won three straight games with their 35-13 win over Texas State last week as a 28-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS PLUS THE POINTS: What happened to Troy last week. For starters, they ran into a juggernaut which is that Ragin’ Cajuns team that may very well be the best non-Power Five in the nation this year. Senior quarterback Kaleb Barker also suffered his worst game of the season by throwing two picks and completing just 15 of 32 passes. This team endured a -3 net turnover margin in that contest — but not only have they covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin but they also have covered 18 of their last 24 games after suffering a -3 or worse net turnover margin in their last contest. The Trojans were also completing a gauntlet of a schedule that had them on the road for the second straight week as well as the fourth time in five games. Troy should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a loss by at least 20 points and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a loss by at last four touchdowns. The Trojans have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to score at least 20 points. This is a proud, veteran team that returned thirteen starters from last year’s group that finished the season 10-3. Barker leads a passing attack that remains 12th in the nation by averaging 314.0 passing YPG. They return home where they are scoring 47.8 PPG while averaging 520.0 total YPG. They are outscoring their guests by +17.4 PPG while outgaining them by +132.8 net YPG. Troy has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 home games after allowing at least 37 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home after allowing at least 50 points in their last contest. Appalachian State has clinched their date with Lafayette next week in the Sun Belt Conference championship game next Saturday — but they need to win this game to secure hosting that game. The Mountaineers also have a chance to represent the Group of Five schools in their automatic bid for a New Year’s Six Bowl — so they will have much to play for in this contest. Yet the pressure of the moment might put this team in a difficult situation. As it is, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning at least eight of their last ten games. And while they outgained Texas State last week by +260 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 net yards.
FINAL TAKE: Troy has the talent to hang with the Mountaineers as they crushed the lone team to beat Appalachian State this year by a whopping 49-28 margin. The Trojans should put up plenty of points as they have not scored at least 30 points only twice this season. Things could have been much different for this Troy team that has lost all three of their games decided by one scoring possession. The opportunity to pull the upset offers the Trojans not only redemption from last week but a sixth win on the season to become bowl eligible while also giving them a measure of revenge from their 21-10 loss to the Mountaineers last season. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year with the Troy Trojans (342) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (341). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-29-19 |
Virginia Tech v. Virginia +3 |
Top |
30-39 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (316) plus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (315). THE SITUATION: Virginia (8-3) has won three straight games after their blowout 55-27 win over Liberty last Saturday as a 16.5-point favorite. Virginia Tech (8-3) has won three games in a row with their 28-0 win over Pittsburgh last Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: The winner of this game between these two teams with 5-2 conference records wins the Coastal Division and will advance to the ACC Championship Game next week. Virginia is 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Cavaliers raced out to a 24-14 halftime lead in that contest against the Flames — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Virginia is tough to beat when they get their offense cranking given the consistency of their defense. The Cavaliers rank 22nd in the nation by allowing only 323.2 total YPG. Virginia stays at home for this rivalry game where they are a perfect 6-0 while scoring 41.2 PPG. They are outscoring their guests by +20.0 PPG at home while outgaining them by +97.2 net YPG. The Cavaliers are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Over their last three games, Virginia is scoring 42.0 PPG while averaging a robust 476.3 total YPG. Under fourth-year head coach Bronco Mendenhall, the Cavaliers have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 10 points to an ACC rival in their last game. The Hokies have pitched two straight shutouts but these were not against the most powerful offenses in the league against the Panthers and Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech held Pittsburgh to just 177 total yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. But this remains a team that is allowing 394.0 total YPG in their four road games which is why they are being outgained by -24.0 net YPG away from home. The Hokies only generated 263 total yards last week in the win with redshirt sophomore quarterback Hendon Hooker passing for 153 yards. But Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not passing for more than 170 yards in their last game. The Hokies offense is averaging just 381.4 total YPG which is 86th in the nation. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Virginia Tech has dominated this series having won fifteen meetings in a row going back to 2003. The Hokies pulled off a 34-31 upset win over the Cavaliers last year as a 5.5-point favorite. But with Virginia Tech feeling as much pressure in this game as the Cavs — look for the home dog to finally earn a big win in this rivalry (but take the points for some insurance). 25* CFB ACC Game of the Year with the Virginia Cavaliers (316) plus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (315). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-28-19 |
Saints v. Falcons +7.5 |
|
26-18 |
Loss |
-140 |
1 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (310) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (309). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (9-2) has won their last two games after their 34-31 win over Carolina last Sunday as a 10-point favorite. Atlanta (3-8) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 35-22 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after suffering an upset loss as a home favorite. And while the Falcons surrendered 446 yards to the Buccaneers last week, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Falcons had found success after their bye week to begin the month by running back to running the football. In their upset wins over New Orleans and Carolina, Atlanta ran the ball 34 and 26 times. The Atlanta defense also started playing better when head coach Dan Quinn relinquished the defensive play-calling to his assistants while moving Rakeem Morris from offense back to defense (where he built his reputation that eventually got the head coaching gig in Tampa Bay) to coach the defensive backs while calling plays on 3rd down. The Falcons have held their last three opponents to just 15.7 PPG. The Falcons stay at home where they are scoring only 17.2 PPG. They will have Devonta Freeman available to run the football but Jones is a game-time decision at wide receiver. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on Thursday Night Football. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread. The Saints have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning at least eight of their last ten games. The Saints remain banged up with their offensive line with left tackle Terron Armstead and left guard Andrus Peat both out for this game. Remember that this New Orleans offense slowed down significantly last season when Armstead went down with an injury. New Orleans is averaging just 317.4 total YPG in their five games on the road which is -51.5 net YPG below their season average.
FINAL TAKE: This is the Saints’ fourth straight game against an NFC South opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing at least their last two games against a divisional rival. New Orleans will want to avenge their 26-9 loss at home to the Falcons back on November 10th — but Atlanta can play loose with the opportunity to play the role of spoiler once again to their arch rival. Expect a close game. 10* NFL New Orleans-Atlanta NBC-TV Special with Atlanta Falcons (310) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-28-19 |
Ole Miss +2.5 v. Mississippi State |
|
20-21 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (311) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (312). THE SITUATION: Ole Miss (4-7) has lost four of their last five games with their 58-37 loss to LSU back on November 16th as a 21.5-point underdog. Mississippi State (5-6) has won two of their last three games with their 45-7 win over Abilene Christian last Saturday as a 37-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS PLUS THE POINTS: Mississippi has nothing to play for but pride as well as spoiling the bowl plans of their arch-rival. This is a similar setup to Northern Illinois’ upset win over Western Michigan on Tuesday. Expect this Rebels team to play inspired football. They have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Ole Miss has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points in their last game. And while the Rebels surrendered 716 total yards to the Tigers’ powerful offense, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Mississippi is better than their losing record — they are outgaining their opponents by +25.1 net YPG but have been snake-bit by losing all four of their games decided by one scoring possession. The Rebels have been clicking as of late under offensive coordinator’s Rich Rodriguez’s run-oriented spread offense. They have averaged 495.3 total YPG over their last three games after ripping the LSU defense for a whopping 614 yards of offense. Ole Miss has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against SEC opponents. Mississippi State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by at least 20 points. And while they gained 577 yards last week against an FCS opponent, Mississippi State has then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Bulldogs host this game but they are just 3-3 at home where they are outscoring their opponents by just +2.5 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Look for a close game that Ole Miss has the opportunity to pull the outright upset in the Egg Bowl. 10* CFB Ole Miss-Mississippi State ESPN Special with the Mississippi Rebels (311) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-28-19 |
Bills v. Cowboys -6.5 |
Top |
26-15 |
Loss |
-106 |
6 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (308) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (307). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-5) has lost two of their last three games with their 13-9 loss in New England on Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. Buffalo (8-3) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 20-3 win over Denver last week as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas is feeling the heat this week with owner (and general manager!) Jerry Jones making his frustration with the coaching of Jason Garrett after the loss to the Patriots last week. Expect this team to play with a sense of urgency in this game. Many pundits have noted that the Cowboys are 0-4 this season in their four games against teams with a winning record. However, these “experts” are not observing that Dallas has actually outgained these four winning teams by +84.2 net YPG. The Cowboys outgained the Patriots last week by +39 net yards. Dallas also outgained Minnesota by +228 net yards while winning the yardage battle with Green Bay by +230 net yards. New Orleans is the only one of the four winning teams that the Cowboys have faced that outgained them in yardage — and they only managed to so so by 9 yards. Put another way, if a pundit’s hot take this week had been that Dallas is averaging 396 total YPG against teams with a winning record while holding these winning teams to just 311.8 total YPG, then taking the Cowboys would start to look pretty, pretty, pretty good (to quote Larry David). Garrett’s in-play decision-making is probably not helping matters. Dallas also has the worst Special Teams unit as measured by Football Outsiders (for what that is worth). But they are hosting a Bills team that FO ranks only at 26th in Special Teams this season. Frankly, I suspect Dallas’ 0-4 record versus teams with a winning record speaks largely to some bad luck that is due for regression. The Cowboys have played their last two games on the road — and now they return home where they are outscoring their opponents by +11.2 net YPG while outgaining these opponents by +128.6 net YPG. Dallas’ offense has been tough to stop at home where they are scoring 30.2 PPG while averaging 475.6 total YPG. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in November. And it is not as if these Bills are battle-tested. Buffalo has only faced one team with a winning record — and they lost to the Patriots at home by a 16-10 score. So the Bills are scoring only 21.0 PPG while averaging 352.7 total YPG — ranking 21st and 18th in the NFL — despite playing ten of eleven teams that do not have winning records. This lack of quality of competition puts the development of quarterback Josh Allen in his second season into a bleaker perspective. Buffalo did outgain the Broncos on the ground last week by 145 net yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +150 yards. The Bills win last week came on the heels of their 37-20 win in Miami the previous week as a touchdown favorite — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two games in a row. Buffalo has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after winning two straight games where they also covered the point spread as the favorite. This is a challenging situation for this team to be plashing their third game in eighteen days on the road on a short week of rest and preparation. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a Thursday. And in their last 13 games played with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 8 times.
FINAL TAKE: Having watched Dak Prescott a bunch this season, I have been impressed — he passes my “eyeball test” when it comes to whether Dallas should sign him to a long-term deal. The Cowboys are more desperate and have the better quarterback — look for them to secure a decisive win at home. 25* NFL Thursday Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (308) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-26-19 |
Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois +10.5 |
Top |
14-17 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (304) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (303). THE SITUATION: Northern Illinois (4-7) has lost two of their last three games after their 45-17 upset loss to Eastern Michigan last Tuesday as a 3.5-point favorite. Western Michigan (7-4) has won three straight games with their 37-34 win in overtime at Ohio two Tuesdays ago as a 1.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: The Broncos need to win tonight’s game to clinch a spot in the Mid-American Conference championship game as the winner of the West Division — so this team will be feeling the pressure to succeed. But Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less to a MAC foe. This team has had an extra week to rest and prepare for this crucial game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after their bye week. Western Michigan has only won once away from home this season in five games — they are being outscored on the road by -12.8 PPG due to their defense surrendering 40.4 PPG along with 518.0 total YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Western Michigan has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points. Northern Illinois will have a losing season under first-year head coach Thomas Hammock. This game is about their pride and the opportunity to play the role of spoiler. The Huskies can also take some solace in the opportunity to avenge their 28-21 upset loss at Western Michigan last season. Northern Illinois has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to a conference rival. The Huskies have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Despite last week’s loss, Northern Illinois is still outscoring their visitors at home by +7.0 PPG while outgaining them by +94.7 net YPG. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 home games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Northern Illinois has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog getting 7 to 14 points.
FINAL TAKE: Western Michigan has not won in Dekalb since 2007 — they are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games against the Huskies while failing to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played at Northern Illinois. 25* CFB Tuesday ESPNU Game of the Year with the Northern Illinois Huskies (304) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-25-19 |
Ravens v. Rams +4 |
Top |
45-6 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (276) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (275). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-4) has won three of their last four games with their 17-7 win over Chicago last Sunday as a 5-point favorite. Baltimore (8-2) has won six straight games with their 41-7 win over Houston at home last week as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a handicapper play tonight — with the public and the so-called “sharps” on the side of the Ravens, this appears to be a situation where taking the contrarian route will prove to be fruitful. Los Angeles has been playing better football as of late. They have outscored their last three opponents by +6.0 PPG while outgaining these foes by +39.3 net YPG. The Rams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. And while Los Angeles has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The conventional wisdom on the Rams has been their play-action offense has been slowed down since the tail end of last season when defenses started playing 6-1 fronts. But head coach Sean McVay has begun to change the identity of his offense to rely more heavily on his rushing attack. Los Angeles has averaged 30 rushing attempts over their last four games. A commitment to running the football has many non-tangible advantages (that continue to elude the football analytics community). Run-blocking is an easier skill to accomplish — so more running helps to put a struggling offensive line in a better position to succeed. With two second-year players entering the starting lineup this season, the play of the offensive line has been an issue. More running of the football also decreased the pressure and expectations on quarterback Jared Goff. During their three-game losing streak earlier in the season, Goff attempted a combined 117 passes in losses to Tampa Bay and Seattle — and that was simply asking too much of this quarterback. Running the football also burns time off the clock which keeps the team’s defense rested. The Rams have held their last three opponents to just 11.3 PPG along with only 313.7 total YPG. The acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey has certainly helped this talented unit play even better. Ramsey will have the assignment of blanketing the Ravens’ Marquise Brown which will likely eliminate the Baltimore deep passing attack. Led by Aaron Donald, Los Angeles has an outstanding run defense that ranks 4th in the league by allowing only 89.1 rushing YPG. The Bears only ran for 74 yards last week — and the Rams have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Goff will benefit from the return of wide receiver Robert Woods who missed the last few games due to personal issues. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks has also been upgraded to probable after getting cleared from the concussion protocol. Moving forward, the Rams have lost the turnover battle in two straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after having -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams from the AFC. Baltimore has looked invincible as of late with wins over Seattle and New England followed up by 36 and 34 point blowout victories over their last two games. The Ravens have covered the point spread in their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games while also failing to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. Baltimore had a 28-10 halftime lead over Cincinnati two weeks ago before taking a 14-0 halftime lead over the Texans last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after having double-digit halftime leads in two straight games. The Ravens dominated Houston last week by generating 25 first downs while holding the ball for 36:19 minutes and totaling 491 yards of offense. But Baltimore has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 450 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a game where they held the ball for at least 34 minutes while gaining at least 24 first downs. The Ravens also held the Texans to just 110 passing yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Baltimore has been vulnerable against opposing passing attacks as they are allowing 238.8 passing YPG which is 17th in the NFL. And while Baltimore has only allowed 20 combined points in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after holding their last two opponents to 14 or fewer points.
FINAL TAKE: While the Rams have not looked as formidable this season as they did last year in making their Super Bowl run, they still are loaded with talent on both sides of the football. And they have plenty of big-game experience. Look for defensive coordinator Wade Phillips to dial-up a scheme that slows down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ vaunted rushing attack. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Rams (276) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-24-19 |
Packers v. 49ers -2.5 |
Top |
8-37 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (272) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (271). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (9-1) looks to build on their 36-26 win at home over Arizona last Sunday where they were 10-point favorites. Green Bay (8-2) has won five of their last six games with their 24-16 win over Carolina two Sundays ago where they were 5-point favorites.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: It is foolish to finish handicapping many of these NFL games without first getting the final M*A*S*H* unit reports for both teams. Philadelphia was tempting to me this afternoon — but they simply lacked the reliable healthy targets on offense to make that a worthwhile play even with the avalanche of public money going on the Seahawks. San Francisco looks like they will be in decent shape tonight with both tight end George Kittle and wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel healthy enough to play. Although Jimmy Garoppolo continues to improve after completing 34 of 45 passes for 424 yards with four TD passes last week against the Cardinals even without those weapons. The 49ers will look to run the ball more tonight after they attempted only 19 rushes for 34 yards last week. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in their last contest. They should have tons of success running the ball again this Packers defense that is allowing 126.9 rushing YPG which is 25th in the NFL. The problem for this Green Bay defense is they play a Wide-Nine technique that puts tons of pressure on their interior linemen who struggle to hold the line of scrimmage. Those defensive tackles are vulnerable to double-teams — and their Wide-Nine spaces out defenders who could come in to help. The Packers are allowing 4 Yards-Per-Carry on both 1st and 2nd downs which is setting up effective play-action pass opportunities. Green Bay is also 31st in the NFL in Tackles-For-Loss. San Francisco should have great success running the football as they rank 2nd in the league by averaging 149.0 rushing YPG. They are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they enjoy a situational advantage by playing at home for their third straight week. The Niners are 4-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +14.4 net PPG due to their stifling defense that limits their guests to just 17.8 PPG along with only 250.2 total YPG. Green Bay is just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a point spread win — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a bye week. This team traveled just yesterday to the west coast from Milwaukee with head coach Matt Nagy not trusting his players to not party all night as they did in their trip to Los Angeles where they preceded to lay an egg against the Chargers. Don’t be surprised if this team struggles with jet lag. More importantly, one of the reasons we took the Chargers in that game three weeks ago was that the underlying members are not great for this team cruising with just two losses. Five of their wins are by one scoring possession — and the Packers are actually being outgained this season by -18.7 net YPG which usually translates into a 4-6 record after ten games. And while Green Bay is 3-1 on the road, they are being outgained by a whopping 399 to 276.5 yardage margin in those four games. Furthermore, the Packers are being outgained by 78.0 net YPG over their last three contests. Somehow this team continues to win despite leading the league with 2 false starts on offense.
FINAL TAKE: The challenging travel arrangements for the Packers compounds the fact that this is the team’s fourth road game in their last five games. That is not a good sign for a team that faces an opponent that will look to out-muscle them in the trenches. Green Bay is also just 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games in November. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (272) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-24-19 |
Dolphins +12.5 v. Browns |
|
24-41 |
Loss |
-128 |
1 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (251) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (252). THE SITUATION: Miami (2-8) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 37-20 loss to Buffalo as a 7-point underdog. Cleveland (4-6) has won two straight games after they defeated Pittsburgh on November 14th by a 21-7 score.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: The Browns has been inconsistent this season — they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Cleveland has also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. This team benefitted from playing a depleted Steelers' offense that lost more players in that game after some questionable cheap shots that left Pittsburgh without their three best offensive weapons to complement quarterback Mason Rudolph who was starting in just his second game on the road. The Browns held the Steelers to just 236 yards of offense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 250 total yards. Cleveland stays at home where they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games. The Browns have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 26 games in November, Cleveland is just 7-18-1 ATS. Miami should respond with a strong effort this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Despite the tanking strategy by management, rookie head coach Brian Flores has this team playing hard — and they are dangerous with the savvy veteran in Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. Over their last three games with Fitzpatrick back as the starting quarterback, the Dolphins are scoring a healthy 20.7 PPG. The Miami defense is also playing better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 22.3 PPG along with only 348.3 total YPG which is -46.2 net YPG below their season average. The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after the first month of the season. Miami has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 20 road games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 14 points. And in their last 5 games against AFC opponents, the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 4 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be without their top three pass rushers in this game with Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi suspended for this game after last week’s debacle at the end of the Steelers game and with Olivier Vernon out with a knee injury. This takes a big chunk out of the talent edge this Browns’ roster has against many teams. When considering that Cleveland gives back 103 yards in penalties when playing at home, take the double-digit underdog. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Miami Dolphins (251) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-24-19 |
Giants +7 v. Bears |
Top |
14-19 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (257) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (258). THE SITUATION: New York (2-8) has lost six straight games after their 34-27 upset loss to the Jets two weeks ago back on November 10th as a 3-point favorite. Chicago (4-6) us reeling as well with five losses in their last six games after their 17-7 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bears are a risky favorite laying close to a touchdown against any NFL opponent right now because of the utter collapse in the confidence of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. The third-year pro completed 24 of 43 passes last week for 190 yards while leading his offense to just 267 total yards. Chicago is 28th in the NFL by averaging 16.9 PPG — and they are 30th in the legacy by averaging only 262.7 total YPG. Things do not get better at home where they are scoring only 16.0 PPG while averaging winning just 277.8 total YPG. It has become clear that head coach Matt Nagy has lost confidence in Trubisky as he has taken plays out of the playbook — yet the stubborn offensive “genius” is unwilling to adapt the play-calling to Trubisky’s skill set because (and I am paraphrasing) he was not hired by the franchise to deviate from his basic offensive principles. We all can be geniuses if Patrick Mahomes is the one executing our chicken scratches in the sand. With defenses daring the Trubisky to throw the ball down field as they stack the box, the Bears are scoring a mere 13.7 PPG while averaging 219.0 total YPG over their last three games. Chicago rushed for only 74 yards last week — and they have not topped 81 rushing yards in each of their last three games. That is a bad sign for this team moving forward as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to top 99 rushing yards in their last two games. Furthermore, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after not averaging more than 225 Yards-Per-Game over their last three games. Additionally, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The defense has been helping the offense out as of late with the Bears winning the turnover battle in two straight games — but this team has failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 53 games after enjoying a +1 or better net turnover margin in two straight games. New York has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing six games in a row. This team should benefit from their bye week — and head coach Pat Shurmur certainly used the time to vigorously prepare for this game with him being on the hot seat for next season. Expect running back Saquon Barkley to also benefit from the extra week off after he was embarrassed with just one rushing yard against the Jets in 13 carries. The Giants managed only 23 rushing yards overall in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 42 road games after only rushing for up to 75 yards in their last game. Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones has been playing better as of late Since Week Eight, Jones has completed 65.6% of his passes while averaging 280.0 passing YPG with 9 TD passes and only one interception. He has a nice Passer Rating of 100.6 over that span. He will not have tight end Evan Engram for this game as he still deals with his injured foot but wide receiver Sterling Shepard is set to return to the field after clearing the concussion protocol. The Giants have been a good road team relative to the point spread as of late — they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games away from home while also covering the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a losing record at home. New York has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games on the road as an underdog — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. And while the Giants have lost the turnover battle in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after having a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: The Giants just 27th in the league in total defense — but facing Trubisky will help them this afternoon. Chicago cannot even bank on piling up field goals with kicker Eddie Pineiro having missed three straight field goals along with four of his last seven attempts. New York has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Bears — expect a close game. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (257) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-23-19 |
San Diego State +2 v. Hawaii |
|
11-14 |
Loss |
-109 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 11:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (215) plus the point(s) versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (216). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (8-2) looks to build off their 17-7 win over Fresno State last Friday as a 2-point favorite. Hawaii (7-4) has won their last two games with their 21-7 win at UNLV as a 6.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS PLUS THE POINTS: I have been waiting on two of these late games for updated information. For Boise State-Utah State, I tried to get a better read on the injury front for both teams dealing with injuries at quarterback (and some other key positions) — but with no new information, I am not risking being on the wrong end of who ends up playing and who sits between two head coaches not revealing much about the status of their players. For this San Diego State situation, I wanted to watch line movement (which I often do with some of the plays released close to kickoff). With the Aztecs still listed as a dog in most locations, this is a simple value play behind the strength of Rocky Long’s program. San Diego State is 8th in the nation by allowing 13.7 PPG — and they are 8th in the FBS by allowing just 270.1 total YPG. This is one of the best defensive units Long has had in his nine years with the program. The Aztecs held the Bulldogs last week to just 206 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Defense travels — and San Diego State is 5-0 on the road while holding their home hosts to just 13.6 PPG along with only 294.6 total YPG. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. San Diego State has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games played on field turf. Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. They did hold the Rebels to just 237 yards of offense — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 275 total yards. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Now this team returns home where are just 17-37-1 ATS in their last 55 games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 24 games against teams with a winning record, Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: These teams trends indicate this is a solid value play — and the situation is improved with San Diego State motivated to avenge a 31-30 upset loss at home last season to the Rebels as an 18.5-point favorite. The Aztecs are still 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Warriors — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against them in Hawai’i. San Diego State needs this win to clinch their spot in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game as well. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the San Diego State Aztecs (215) plus the point(s) versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (216). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-23-19 |
Tennessee v. Missouri -2.5 |
|
24-20 |
Loss |
-117 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Missouri Tigers (196) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (195). THE SITUATION: Missouri (5-5) has lost four games in a row with their 23-6 loss to Florida last week as a 6.5-point underdog. Tennessee (5-5) has won three games in a row with their 17-13 upset win at Kentucky as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: After winning five of their first six games, this Missouri team has fallen off the map by losing their last four games by an average score of 25-7. Part of the problem has been that three of those games were all on the road in a row before they finally returned home last week. Then hosting a talented Gators team was not what the doctor ordered for this team last week who was outgained by -130 net yards. The Tigers’ offense has been the problem as they have averaged only 259 total YPG during their losing streak. Some of that decline can be explained by the hamstring injury to quarterback Kelly Bryant. While the former Clemson quarterback did return last week, he only passed for 204 yards after completing 25 of 39 passes. Perhaps Bryant was rusty — or perhaps he is still slowed with that injury. Or, perhaps facing the Gators stout defense was the problem. Now on Senior Night with this team needing one more victory to become bowl eligible, look for the Tigers to play their best offensive game in their last five games. Remember, they were scoring 38.8 PPG while averaging 474 YPG after their first six games. Missouri has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after losing four games in a row. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 home games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Missouri is much better at home where they are 5-1 this season with an average winning margin of +21.2 net YPG due to an offense that averages 34.7 PPG along with 427.5 total YPG. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games as the favorite. Missouri has also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Tennessee may be due for a letdown after pulling the upset two weeks ago. The Volunteers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. And while Tennessee has covered the point spread in five straight games as well as six of their last eight contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight contests. The Volunteers did surrender a whopping 302 rushing yards to the Wildcats — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 300 rushing yards in their last game. Missouri did average 6.43 Yards-Per-Play despite only being on offense for 18:23 minutes in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP. Now this team stays on the road where they are just 1-2 with an average losing margin of -16.3 net PPG due to their anemic offense that scores just 11.0 PPG in those games while averaging 255.3 total YPG. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games played on turf.
FINAL TAKE: Missouri does have a strong defense that should stifle this Volunteers offense. The Tigers are 19th in the nation by allowing just 19.5 PPG — and they also rank 9th in total defense by giving up just 297.6 total YPG. Tennessee scores only 23.9 PPG while averaging 343.5 total YPG which is 101st and 109th in the nation. 20* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Missouri Tigers (196) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (195). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-23-19 |
Oregon v. Arizona State +13.5 |
Top |
28-31 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arizona State Sun Devils (152) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (151). THE SITUATION: Arizona State (5-5) has lost four straight games with their 35-34 upset loss at Washington State last week as a 1-point favorite. Oregon (9-1) still has College Football Playoff aspirations after their 34-6 win over Arizona last week as a 27-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUN DEVILS PLUS THE POINTS: The Ducks have clinched the Pac-12 North title so they will be playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game in two weeks. With the season-ending injury to Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, Oregon might have the inside track to claim one of the four playoffs spots if they win the rest of their games — but a loss in Tempe who ruin those ambitions. Don’t be surprised if the Ducks feel the pressure in this nationally televised game at night against a feisty Sun Devils team. As it is, Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a victory by at least three touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Quarterback Justin Herbert completed 20 of 28 passes last week for 333 yards — but Oregon is just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. And while the Ducks held the Wildcats to only 240 total yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Oregon defense has taken a step back over the last month. While allowing just 14.8 PPG and 306.1 total YPG this season which ranks 10th and 14th in the nation, the Ducks have allowed their last three opponents to score 21.7 PPG while averaging 347.0 total YPG. Oregon also allows their home hosts to average 22.0 PPG while averaging 346.5 total YPG. The Ducks have thrived with a +1.30 net turnover margin per game which is tied for second-best in the nation — but the bouncing ball can be fickle especially with the pressure on in hostile environments. Arizona State has covered the point spread in 8 of their 13 games as an underdog under head coach Herm Edwards with the Sun Devils pulling off six straight upset victories. This team has been a double-digit underdog three times in those games with them finished 2-1 ATS while upsetting Michigan State this season as a +15.5 point underdog. Additionally, since 2014, Arizona State has been a double-digit do eleven times — and they have covered the point spread 9 times while pulling off the outright upset six times. The Sun Devils should respond well from their disappointing loss last week as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a loss by 3 points or less on the road. Arizona State has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games at home after a game where both teams scored at least 31 points. The Sun Devils should be able to keep up with the Ducks with their offense that has averaged 30.7 PPG over their last three games. Freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels experienced some growing pains against the outstanding Utah defense four games — but he has since completed 69% of his passes with 9 touchdown passes and no interceptions in his three games since that start.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Expect a close game with the Sun Devils in a position to pull the upset. 25* CFB Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Arizona State Sun Devils (152) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (151). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-23-19 |
Michigan v. Indiana +10 |
Top |
39-14 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indiana Hoosiers (122) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (121). THE SITUATION: Indiana (7-3) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 34-27 loss at Penn State as a 15-point underdog. Michigan (8-2) has won three games in a row with their 44-10 win at home against Michigan State as a 13.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HOOSIERS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a challenging sandwich game for the Wolverines where they may be caught dealing with the emotional letdown of their big in-state rivalry game with the Spartans while possibly looking ahead to their showdown with Ohio State next week. As it is, Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. The Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games preceding their big rivalry game with the Buckeyes — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in these last three situations under head coach Jim Harbaugh. That win against Sparty came on the heels of their 38-7 win at Maryland as a three-touchdown favorite — but the Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in two straight games as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, Michigan has covered the point spread in six of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in at least five of their last six games. The Wolverines offense has played better as of late — whether as a result of a better understanding of rookie offensive coordinator Josh Gattis’ principles and/or the improved health of quarterback Shea Patterson who was banged up early in the season. Patterson completed 24 of 33 passes last week for 384 yards — but not only has Michigan failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 375 yards in their last game. The Wolverines have scored at least 38 points in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after scoring at least 31 points in three straight games and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 37 points in three straight contests. The Michigan defense has also played well as they have not allowed more than 14 points in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing at least 14 points in three straight contests. Now the Wolverines go back on the road where their scoring drops to 28.7 PPG. Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Indiana has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win — and they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Peyton Ramsey was very effective last week as the new starting quarterback after the season-ending injury to Michael Penix, Jr. Ramsey completed 31 of 41 passes for 371 yards against the Nittany Lions’ defense while leading the Hoosiers to 462 yards of offense. Indiana has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards. This is a dangerous team in the third season under head coach Tom Allen. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against ranked opponents under Allen but remain hungry to pull the straight-up upset having lost their last seventeen games against ranked foes. The Hoosiers are balanced on both sides of the football as they rank 30th in the nation by averaging 448.0 total YPG while also ranking 18th in the nation by allowing just 316.3 total YPG. They return home where they are 4-1 with an average winning margin of +7.3 PPG due to an offense that scores 33.0 PPG. Indiana has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: It is Senior Day in Bloomington with the Hoosiers honoring sixteen seniors whose career will be capped by pulling the upset this afternoon. The Wolverines are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Indiana which includes a loss in Ann Arbor in overtime in Allen’s first year with the program. 25* CFB Big Ten Underdog of the Year with the Indiana Hoosiers (122) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (121). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-22-19 |
Colorado State +6 v. Wyoming |
|
7-17 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (113) plus the points versus Wyoming Cowboys (114). THE SITUATION: Colorado State (4-6) had their three-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 38-21 loss at home to the Air Force as a 10-point underdog. Wyoming (6-4) has lost their last two games with their 26-21 loss at Utah State last Saturday as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Colorado State should respond with a strong effort after their bad loss last week as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Rams have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread setback. Junior quarterback Patrick O’Brien did have a good game against the Falcons as he completed 28 of 43 passes for 347 passes in the loss. Colorado State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. O’Brien is leading an offense that is 12th in the nation by averaging 315.7 passing YPG — and he should have success with his arm against a Cowboys defense that is allowing 282.1 passing YPG which is 120th in the FBS. Colorado State goes back on the road where they are scoring 33.0 PPG while averaging a robust 455.4 total YPG. The Rams have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Colorado State has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against conference opponents. Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 7 points or less to a Mountain West Conference rival. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss. Wyoming was fortunate to be in as close a game as they were with the Aggies last week as they were outgained by -103 net yards after surrendering 448 total yards. The Cowboys scored on a 10-yard interception which helped them keep it closer than expected. But Wyoming still committed four turnovers in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games after committing at least four turnovers in their last game. Moving forward, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning two of their last three games.
FINAL TAKE: Despite their 6-4 record, the Cowboys are being outgained by -26.4 net YPG this season. The Rams, on the other hand, are outgaining their opponents by +69.3 net YPG. The offensive prowess of this Colorado State team should keep this game close. 10* CFB Colorado State-Wyoming ESPN2 Special with the Colorado State Rams (113) plus the points versus Wyoming Cowboys (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-21-19 |
Colts v. Texans -3.5 |
|
17-20 |
Loss |
-100 |
11 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (110) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (109). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-4) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 33-13 win over Jacksonville as a 2.5-point favorite. Houston (6-4) saw their two-game winning streak end on Sunday with their 41-7 loss at Baltimore as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: The Texans should respond with a strong effort after their embarrassing effort on Sunday as they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread loss. They also are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games are failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Quarterback Deshaun Watson completed 18 of 29 passes against the Ravens for just 169 yards in that game with Houston only finishing with 110 net passing yards — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to pass for at least 150 passing yards. Now the Texans return home where they are 3-1 this season where they are outgaining their opponents by +44.5 net YPG. Houston has been playing much better defense as those where they are holding their visitors to just 21.0 PPG along with only 332.2 total YPG. They were gouged for 263 rushing yards to the Ravens’ rushing attack last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. And while Houston has given up 408.3 total YPG over their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after allowing at last 400 YPG over their last three games. The Texans have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win at home. And while the Colts have won four of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The Indianapolis offense will be hampered with injuries for this game being played on a short week. Running back Marlon Mack will also be out several weeks after fracturing his hand last week in the third quarter after leading the team with 108 rushing yards. And while wide receiver T.Y. Hilton and tight end Eric Ebron has practiced yesterday and are expected to play tonight, their respective effectiveness remains in question as they are dealing with their calf and ankle injuries. Even backup running back, Jordan Wilkins, is slowed with a hamstring injury. QB Jacoby Brissett completed 15 of 24 passes for 148 passing yards last week — and Indy has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for no more than 150 passing yards in their last game. These are far from optimal conditions for an offense that ranks 21st in the NFL by averaging 343.8 total YPG — and that number drops to just 330.7 total YPG that they average on the road. The Colts go back on the road after playing their last two games at home — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of the last 7 games after a two-game homestand. And while Indianapolis has not allowed more than 90 rushing yards in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in three straight games.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Colts’ 30-23 win over the Texans back on October 20th in Indianapolis where they were 1.5-point favorites. Houston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 28 points. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Houston Fox-TV Special with the Houston Texans (110) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-20-19 |
Toledo +9.5 v. Buffalo |
|
30-49 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Toledo Rockets (105) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (106). THE SITUATION: Toledo (6-4) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Wednesday with their 31-28 upset loss at home to Northern Illinois as a 1.5-point favorite. Buffalo (5-5) had their three-game winning streak end last Thursday in their 30-27 upset loss at Kent State where they were a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bulls were leading 24-6 to the Golden Flashes in the 4th quarter last week in a game I gave up on (we had Kent State) — yet they collapsed to lose that game. Not only did that loss help Miami (OH) clinch the Mid-American Conference East Division but it put Buffalo’s bowl aspirations in jeopardy as they will likely have to win their last two games to reach seven wins to ensure a bowl bid this year. This is a situation ripe for a big emotional hangover after last week’s disappointing finish. As it is, the Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a loss by 7 points or less against a Mid-American Conference rival — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less to conference opponent. Buffalo did rush for 245 yards last week in the loss but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. But now the Bulls return home where they are averaging only 346.7 total YPG which is -21.3 net YPG below their season average which ranks 98th in the nation. Buffalo is 5th in the nation in run defense by allowing just 88.4 rushing YPG. They have not allowed more than 119 rushing yards in each of their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in at least three straight games. Buffalo has covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 32 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Toledo should respond better to their upset loss last week with one win ensure they will be invited to a bowl game. The Rockets have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset loss to a conference rival as a home favorite. Furthermore, Toledo has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Rockets did generate 508 yards last week while outgaining the Huskies by +64 net yards. Toledo has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Rockers have outgained their last three opponents by +56.7 net YPG due to their offense averaging 498.3 total YPG. Junior quarterback Eli Peters continues to improve — he completed 26 of 38 passes for 300 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions last week against Northern Illinois.
FINAL TAKE: Toledo has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 26 road games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. Expect a close game with the Rockets having the opportunity to pull the upset. 10* CFB Toledo-Buffalo ESPN2 Special with the Toledo Rockets (105) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-19-19 |
Eastern Michigan +5 v. Northern Illinois |
|
45-17 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Eastern Michigan Eagles (103) plus the points versus the Northern Illinois Huskies (104). THE SITUATION: Eastern Michigan (5-5) had their two-game losing streak with their 42-14 win at Akron last Tuesday as a 17-point favorite. Northern Illinois (4-6) has won two of their last three games with their 31-28 win at Toledo last Wednesday as a 1.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: The Huskies remain alive in the Mid-American Conference West division race as they tied for third place with a 3-3 record but just one game behind Central Michigan and Western Michigan with a game with the Broncos on deck next week. Northern Illinois may get caught looking ahead to that important showdown. As it is, the Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. The Northern Illinois defense has shown cracks as of late — the Rockets generated 508 yards of offense last week after the Huskies surrendered 627 yards the week before against Central Michigan. Northern Illinois allowed those two opponents to average 8.20 and 6.68 Yards-Per-Play — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. The Huskies have not done well when favored as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points. Eastern Michigan may be out of the MAC West race with their 2-4 record but they remain motivated to win one more game to become bowl eligible for the third time in four seasons. The Eagles have been capable road warriors as they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games away from home. Led by senior quarterback Mike Glass III, Eastern Michigan is scoring 28.8 PPG whole averaging 403.0 total YPG in their six games on the road. Led by a rushing attack that churned out 252 yards last week, the Eagles generated 498 total yards of offense. Eastern Michigan has then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 200 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. The Eagles are dangerous underdogs as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road when getting the points. Eastern Michigan has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games when getting 3.5 to 7 points.
FINAL TAKE: Eastern Michigan is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games played at Northern Illinois. They should revel in the opportunity to spoil the Huskies’ MAC championship game aspirations. 10* CFB Eastern Michigan-Northern Illinois ESPN2 Special with the Eastern Michigan Eagles (103) plus the points versus the Northern Illinois Huskies (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-18-19 |
Chiefs v. Chargers +6 |
|
24-17 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (476) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (475). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (6-4) has lost two of their last three games as well as four of their last six contests after their 35-32 upset loss at Tennessee as a 5-point favorite last week. Los Angeles (4-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped two Thursdays ago with their 26-21 upset loss at Oakland as a 1-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after suffering an upset loss. Additionally, the Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after a close loss by 3 points or less. Los Angeles is also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a point spread setback. The Chargers are playing better football as they get relatively healthy and running back Melvin Gordon gets himself into playing shape after ending his contractual holdout. Gordon comes off his best game this season with 108 rushing yards against the Raiders. The Chargers have an underrated defense — they are 6th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 19.4 PPG and they are also 6th in the league by limiting these foes to only 318.6 total YPG. Los Angeles has held its last three opponents to just 17.7 PPG along with only 283.3 total YPG. Improved run defense has been fundamental to Chargers’ playing even better on that side of the football. After getting gouged for 162 rushing yards at Chicago three weeks ago, Los Angeles held the Packers to only 45 rushing yards before limiting the Raiders last week to just 78 rushing yards. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in November — and they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher including covering the point spread in these last five situations. Kansas City has failed to cove the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by 6 points or less. The suspect Chiefs defense gave up 371 yards to the Titans last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 total yards in their last game. Kansas City is 23rd in the NFL by allowing 369.5 total YPG. The Chiefs have surrendered 29.7 PPG over their last three games. Kansas City’s biggest vulnerability with their defense is in stopping the run as they are allowing 148.1 rushing YPG which is 30th in the NFL. The Chiefs lean on Patrick Mahomes to bail their defense out — and they have averaged 453.5 YPG over their last two contests. But Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after averaging at least 450 YPG in their last two games. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games in Week 10 through 13.
FINAL TAKE: The Chargers practiced all week at the football facilities at the Air Force Academy in Colorado where the altitude is similar to what they will experience tonight in Mexico City. Don’t be surprised if the Chiefs struggle a bit in the second half of this game. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games as an underdog. 10* NFL Kansas City-LA Chargers ESPN Special with the Los Angeles Chargers (476) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-19 |
Bears v. Rams -6 |
|
7-17 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (474) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (473). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-5) snapped their four-game winning streak last week with their 20-10 win at home over Detroit as a 6-point favorite. Los Angeles (5-4) had their two-game winning streak end last week with their 17-12 loss at Pittsburgh as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles should rebound with a strong effort. They are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The Rams rushed for only 88 yards in that game against the Steelers — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not rushing for at least 90 yards in their last game. Los Angeles is getting better play from their defense since the acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey. They have held their last three opponents to just 12.3 PPG along with only 299.3 total YPG. The Steelers rushed for only 42 yards last week — and the Rams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the NFC — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games after win by no more than 7 points against an NFC North rival. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky completed 16 of 23 passes for 173 yards and three touchdowns passes — but if you think those numbers are a refection of a sudden improvement in his play, the ole eyeball test suggested otherwise during this game. The Bears only held a 7-6 lead at halftime against the Lions team playing without Matthew Stafford. Chicago only had 13 first downs in that game while being outgained by -131 net yards due to their stagnant offense that managed only 226 yards against a Detroit team that entered that game ranked second-to-last in total defense. Trubisky looks lost in his third season as a professional — and perhaps the bigger indictment of his development is that head coach Matt Nagy has lost confidence in him as evidenced by his conservative play-calling. The Bears are 29th in the league by averaging 262.2 total YPG — and they are scoring just 16.7 PPG while averaging 259.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Chicago defense allowed a Lions; offense playing with the injured Stafford to gain 357 yards last week — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bears’ rushing attack did not do much to help Trubisky out last week as they managed only 81 yards on the ground. Chicago has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards. Furthermore, the Bears only gained 164 yards the previous week in Philadelphia against the Eagles — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Head coach Sean McVay and the rest of this Rams team will have revenge on their mind from their embarrassing 15-6 loss in the frigid December weather in Chicago at night last season. It was just a short week ago where the conventional wisdom had evolved that the Rams had turned the corner from their slow start with a two-game winning streak. Look for LA to earn a decisive victory. 10* NFL Chicago-LA Rams NBC-TV Special with the Los Angeles Rams (474) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-19 |
Falcons v. Panthers -4 |
|
29-3 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (456) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (455). THE SITUATION: Carolina (5-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 24-16 loss at Green Bay last week as a 5-point underdog. Atlanta (2-7) snapped their six-game losing streak with their 26-9 loss at New Orleans as a 14-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS: Carolina should respond with a strong effort as they have consistently done under the leadership of head coach Ron Rivera. The Panthers have covered the point spread in a decisive 62 of their last 100 games after a loss on the road including covering point spread expectations in seven of these last ten situations. And while Carolina has won five of their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 30 of their last 44 home games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Panthers have only covered the point spread once in their last three games but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three contests. Quarterback Kyle Allen completed 28 of 43 passes for 307 yards against the Packers while displaying grit by almost leading his team to victory in the snowy conditions at Lambeau Field before seeing his last-minute drive fall one yard short as time expired. Carolina gained 401 yards against Green Bay — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. And while Carolina endured a -2 net turnover margin, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Atlanta will likely suffer a letdown after their emotional upset win in the Big Easy last week. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. This team stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games when playing at least two straight games away from home. The Falcons running game is in shambles with Devonta Freeman out for this game with his ankle injury. With his primary backup, Ito Smith, on Injured Reserve, it looks like the primary ball-handling chores will go to Brian Hill whose experience escapes me right now (and no time to check …). Quarterback Matt Ryan will also be without the most productive tight end in fantasy football in this game in Austin Hooper — and remember that this team traded away Mohamad Sanu which leaves the supporting cast with this loaded offense suddenly a bit thin. The Falcons defense played their best game of the season last week by limiting the Saints to just 310 yards after head coach Dan Quinn handing over playcalling duties to his assistant coaches (Raheem Morris is now responsible for calling the plays on passing downs). That one trick pony worked as a surprise last week against New Orleans but now Rivera and company can adapt. Atlanta is 28th in the NFL by allowing 28.8 PPG. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has won six of the last seven meetings between these two teams — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in Carolina against the Panthers. 10* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Carolina Panthers (456) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-16-19 |
Oklahoma v. Baylor +11 |
Top |
34-31 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (38) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (381). THE SITUATION: Baylor (9-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 29-23 win in overtime at TCU as a 1-point favorite. Oklahoma (8-1) survived a 42-41 win at home against Iowa State as a 14-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Baylor demonstrated grit to rally from a 9-0 halftime deficit on the road to a good Horned Frogs team before pulling that game out in overtime. The Bears may lose this game — but they will go down fighting in what should be a one-possession game. Baylor has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. The Bears have struggled on offense over the last two weeks by scoring only 26 combined points in regulation over their last two games. But this remains a team that is 26th in the nation by averaging 35.3 PPG — and they score 38.4 PPG at home in Waco while generating 490.6 total YPG. Turnovers have played a role in these last two games as they have given the ball up five times in those contests. They now host this Sooners team that has not earned even one takeaway in their last five games. And what has kept head coach Matt Rhule’s team undefeated this season is the strong play of their defense. Baylor ranks 17th in the nation by allowing only 19.0 PPG — and they are 31st in the nation by allowing just 337.4 total YPG. The Bears have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in November. Oklahoma had failed to over the pint spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. The Sooners defense has been the Achilles’ heel for this program in the Lincoln Riley era — and they have allowed 903 yards of offense which has translated into 99 combined points in their last two games. The Cyclones generated 477 yards against them last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. But new concerns have developed with their offense as of late. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has become too reliant on wide receiver CeeDee Lamb as his go-to target — he has caught thirteen balls over the last two weeks — which has made the Riley offense a bit too predictable. The play of the offensive line has not been as strong as in previous seasons either with Hurts facing pressure from opposing pass rushers. Now this team goes on the road where they are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games — and they are just 1-3-1 in their last 5 road games against teams with winning record at home. Furthermore, the Sooners are just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma is just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 road games under Riley when favored in a regular-season game. Baylor is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog in the Rhule era with five of those games resulting in an outright upset victory. The Bears are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games as a dog. 25* CFB Big 12 Underdog of the Year with the Baylor Bears (38) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (381). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-16-19 |
Minnesota v. Iowa -3 |
Top |
19-23 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (336) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (335). THE SITUATION: Iowa (6-3) saw their two-game losing streak snapped last Saturday with their narrow 24-22 loss at Wisconsin as a 7.5-point underdog. Minnesota (9-0) remained undefeated last week with their 31-26 upset win over Penn State as a 6.5-point home underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: It was tempting for a majority of bettors last week to fade the Golden Gophers considering a slew of factors that had them fortunate to still be unbeaten heading into their showdown with the Nittany Lions. Minnesota had orchestrated a slew of comeback victories albeit against dubious opponents like Fresno State in which they needed double overtime to win that game. Their strength of schedule had been very light with Nebraska possibly being their best opponent (according to the laptops) and Illinois offering their stiffest defensive challenge. Remarkably, the Golden Gophers had not played a full game against a team that did not need to use their backup quarterback since the second game of the season. But I still considered Minnesota a dangerous home underdog against an (overrated) Penn State team in what was their biggest game yet in the P.J. Fleck era as a head coach. Fleck is a great football coach who has quickly put his stamp on the culture of this Golden Gophers program after previously building Western Michigan into a non-Power Five conference powerhouse. Yet Minnesota was very fortunate to pull off the upset last week as they needed three interceptions in the Red Zone to stifle Nittany Lion drives and overcome getting outgained by -58 net yards. The Minnesota defense was exposed along the way by surrendering a whopping 518 yards at home to the Penn State offense. This Golden Gophers team has now won all five of their games decided by one scoring possession. But the assignment gets even tougher with this trip to Iowa City to play in Kinnick Stadium where they have not won more than once in the last thirty years. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 road games as an underdog getting no more than 7 points. The Golden Gophers has had Lady Luck on their side all season — they are 13th in the nation by averaging +0.78 net turnovers per game this year. But the bouncing football can be fickle as to where it travels — especially in hostile environments. Minnesota has won the turnover battle in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after enjoying a +1 or better turnover margin in at least two straight contests. Iowa is just 1-3 in games decided by one scoring possession — so a few lucky breaks going their way would have dramatically changed the stakes they have in this game. Yet they can still play the role of spoiler which this Hawkeyes program often relishes when playing at home. They return home after playing their last two games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after a two-game road stand. Iowa plays outstanding defense — they rank 4th in the nation by allowing just 11.7 PPG. They are 10th in the nation in total defense by surrendering only 288.9 total YPG with a balanced unit that is 20th in the FBS against the run (111.3 rushing YPG) and 10th against the pass (177.6 passing YPG). Their three losses have been decided by a mere 14 combined points. They are 4-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +20.0 PPG due to their offense that plays much better in those friendly environments where they are scoring 30.8 PPG along averaging 453.0 total YPG. Iowa has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games as the favorite — and they are a perfect 6-0 straight-up while covering the point spread in 5 of those 6 games when favored by no more than 3 points since 2015. The Hawkeyes also do a great job in protecting the football as they have only committed two combined turnovers in their last three-games after turning the ball over once against the Badgers. Iowa has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. And while the Hawkeyes have won the turnover battle in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning the turnover battle in at least two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Iowa won last year’s battle for the Floyd of Rosedale Trophy with their 48-31 win at Minnesota in a game where junior quarterback Nate Stanley passed for 314 yards with four touchdowns. Stanley will certainly be confident he can lead his team to another victory today. Look for the Gophers’ luck to run out and their bubble to burst. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Iowa Hawkeyes (336) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (335). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-16-19 |
Indiana +16 v. Penn State |
|
27-34 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indiana Hoosiers (326) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (325). THE SITUATION: Indiana (7-2) takes the field again after their 34-3 win at home over Northwestern two weeks ago as an 8.5-point favorite. Penn State (8-1) suffered their first loss of the season last week with their 31-26 upset loss at Minnesota as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HOOSIERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Nittany Lions had their bubble burst last week with that defeat to the Golden Gophers. As it is, Penn State is 2-12-3 ATS in their last 17 games after a straight-up loss. The Nittany Lions have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after an upset loss against a Big Ten foe where they were favored by at least 6 points. Penn State has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by 7 points or less against a conference rival. I have considered sophomore quarterback Sean Clifford a bit overrated after a soft opening five games to the season that fluffed up his numbers. Clifford completed only 23 of 43 passes last week while throwing three devastating interceptions in the Red Zone. The Nittany Lions have faced three quality defenses over the last three weeks against Michigan, Michigan State, and the Gophers — and they are scoring 27.3 PPG along with averaging 367.7 YPG which is -9.8 PPG and -65.1 YPG below their season average. Penn State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in November. Indiana has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after winning four of their last five contests. This team suffered a tough injury with the season-ending shoulder injury to sophomore Michael Penix, Jr. But head coach Tom Allen has a capable backup in junior Peyton Ramsey who made all twelve starts last season for this team. This is a team on the rise under Allen’s leadership who have played Michigan and Ohio State very tough over the last few seasons. The Hoosiers are an ugly 1-48 straight-up in their last forty-nine games against ranked opponents but they are also 7-3 ATS in those last ten opportunities with three straight point spread covers versus ranked opponents. Indiana ranks 33rd in the nation by scoring 33.0 PPG. But what makes this team dangerous is their play on defense as they are allowing only 20.0 PPG which is 23rd in the nation — and they also rank 16th in the nation by allowing only 310.2 total YPG. The Hoosiers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow Big Ten foes.
FINAL TAKE: Indiana is already destined to break their 27-year bowl drought later this season — but this is an opportunity to finally register a signature victory. Penn State may be hungover from their deflating loss last week — and they may be looking ahead to Ohio State next week. 10* CFB Indiana-Penn State ABC-TV Special with the Indiana Hoosiers (326) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (325). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-16-19 |
Michigan State +14 v. Michigan |
|
10-44 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (387) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (388). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (4-5) has lost four straight games with their 37-34 upset loss at home to Illinois as a 15.5-point favorite last week. Michigan (7-2) comes off a 38-7 win at Maryland two weeks ago as a 21.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINTS: Michigan State may have hit rock bottom last week by blowing a 31-10 4th quarter lead. But there is nothing like the opportunity to find redemption by playing a bitter rival. As it is, the Spartans have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. If there was a silver lining in that game with the Fighting Illini, it was that Sparty got their offense going by generating 526 yards against a solid Illinois defense. Michigan State scored 28 points in the first half last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games on the road after scoring at least 24 first-half points in their last game. Sparty generated 27 first downs last week while controlling the clock for 37:44 minutes in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 24 first downs while controlling the clock for at least 34 minutes in their last game. Now this team goes back on the road after playing their last two games at home. Michigan State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing their last two games at home — and they have coved the point spread 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set at 42.5 to 45. Michigan has responded to their 7-point loss at Penn State with a 45-14 win at home against Penn State before last week’s victory. But the Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after winning their last two contests by at least four touchdowns. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after scoring at least 37 points in two straight games. And while Michigan has covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Wolverines return home to the Big House where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range. Michigan has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a bye week.
FINAL TAKE: Michigan State has covered the point spread in 10 of the last 11 meetings against the Wolverines while pulling the upset eight times. Sparty has also covered the point spread in their last 5 games against Michigan when playing in Ann Arbor. 10* CFB Michigan State-Michigan Fox-TV Special with the Michigan State Spartans (387) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (388). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-15-19 |
Louisiana Tech v. Marshall -3.5 |
|
10-31 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (316) minus the points versus the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (315). THE SITUATION: Marshall (6-3) has won four straight games with their 20-7 win at Rice as an 11.5-point favorite back on November 2nd. Louisiana Tech (8-1) has won eight straight games with their 52-17 win over North Texas last Saturday as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD MINUS THE POINTS: Upon my first look at this game, this appeared to be a letdown situation for this Louisiana Tech team who has their last four games by more than two touchdowns including a 42-21 win at UTEP two weeks ago. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a victory over a conference opponent by at least 35 points. Louisiana Tech has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning their last two games by at least 21 points. And while the Bulldogs held the Mean Green last week to just 74 rushing yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing at least 100 rushing yards in their last game. But this situation became worthy of investment after the Louisiana Tech Athletic Department suspended quarterback J’Mar Smith, wide receiver Adrian Hardy, and linebacker James Jackson for internal violation of their guidelines. Hardy is the team’s leading receiver but the loss of Smith is devastating. The three-year starting quarterback was completing 65.1% of his passes with 14 touchdown passes and just four interceptions during his senior year while averaging 8.2 Yards-Per-Pass Attempt. He will be replaced by redshirt freshman Aaron Allen who has attempted only nine passes this season. Playing in Joan C. Edwards Stadium for this nationally televised night game was already going to be a difficult assignment before asking their backup quarterback to make his first career start. The Bulldogs average 38.1 PPG this season — but that number drops almost 10 full points to 28.5 PPG in their four games on the road. Louisiana Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 27 road games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. Marshall covered the point spread two weeks ago for just the second time in their last six games — but they have then covered the point spread in 31 of their last 46 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games including covering point spread expectations in five of these last seven situations. The Thundering Herd returns home after the benefit of a bye week where they are 4-1 this season. Marshall is scoring 32.0 PPG at home this year while outgaining their opponents by +76.0 net YPG — so it will be asking a lot of Allen to keep up with the Thundering Herd offense. Marshall is 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams control their fate to win their respective divisions in Conference USA to reach the conference championship game. It is possible that a Marshall victory could set up a rematch of these two teams in that Championship Game. Led by ten-year head coach Doc Holliday, the Thundering Herd have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a Friday night. 10* CFB Louisiana Tech-Marshall CBS Sports Network Special with the Marshall Thundering Herd (316) minus the points versus the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (315). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-14-19 |
Steelers +3 v. Browns |
|
7-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (309) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (310). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (5-4) has won four straight games with their 17-12 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Rams as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. Cleveland (3-6) snapped their four-game losing streak on Sunday with their 19-16 win at home over Buffalo as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: There are some situational aspects to this game which I think I give the Browns the edge. However, in what is considered a coin flip outcome by the oddsmakers, I think there are some overwhelming intangibles where the Steelers have the edge. First, Mike Tomlin and his staff have a significant advantage in preparing for this game on a short week. Rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens is experiencing growing pains going from a running backs coach at the beginning of last season to now being a deal head coach and offensive coordinator for the first time (for an entire season) this year — and his job is complicated by all the personalities on his roster along with the unreasonable expectations placed on this squad which would be a challenge for even the most savvy veteran NFL coach. Second, Cleveland gives away tons of yardage in their mistakes via penalties. They are averaging nine penalties a game which is accounting for 78 YPG — and they have averaged 10 penalties per game over their last three contests which has accounted for 99 YPG. The Browns have been consistently inconsistent as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Third, Cleveland’s proclivity to make mistakes extends to turning the ball over — they are averaging 1.9 turnovers per game with a -0.90 net turnover margin per game. The Steelers are second in the league with 26 takeaways which have all taken place after the first week of the season. Pittsburgh averages 2.9 takeaways per game with that number rising to a 3.7 average over their last three games. There is a reason this underachieving franchise is now 5-21-2 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. The Browns are also just 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home as the favorite. Furthermore, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as the favorite. And while the Browns gained 368 yards last week against the Bills, they are then just 12-30-4 ATS in their last 46 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh’s winning culture has helped them go 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a point spread victory. The Steelers are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on Thursday night. Pittsburgh has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games as a dog getting up to 7 points. The surging Steelers’ defense is holding their opponents to just 16.7 PPG over their last three games along with only 288.0 total YPG over that span. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow opponents from the AFC North. With James Connor returning to the field to jumpstart their running game, look for Pittsburgh to be in position to pull the upset (but take the points for some insurance). 10* NFL Pittsburgh-Cleveland Fox-TV Special with Pittsburgh Steelers (309) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-14-19 |
Buffalo v. Kent State +6 |
|
27-30 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Kent State Golden Flashes (312) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (311). THE SITUATION: Kent State (3-6) has lost three straight games after their 35-33 loss at Toledo back on November 5th as a 3-point underdog. Buffalo (5-4) has won three straight games with their 43-14 win at Eastern Michigan as a 1-point favorite on November 2nd.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN FLASHES PLUS THE POINTS: There are a few reasons to suspect that this Kent State team is a bit better than their underlying numbers suggest. Their non-conference schedule including road games at Arizona State, Auburn, and Wisconsin. When only looking at their conference statistics, the Golden Flashes are outscoring their opponents by +9.8 PPG while outgaining them by +38.8 net YPG. Second-year head coach Sean Lewis oversaw a 2-10 team last year that suffered four losses by one scoring possession. Fifteen starters are back from that team — and they have lost three straight games by a touchdown or less. But these losses were against three of the better teams in the Mid-American Conference in Ohio, Miami (OH), and then the Rockets last week — so this team has been very competitive after a very tough non-conference schedule. Kent State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing their last two games to conference foes. Additionally, the Golden Flashes have endured a front-loaded schedule that had then play away from home in six of their first nine games. Now they return home to play for only the fourth time this season — and just their third time at home in conference play. Kent State has covered the point spread in three of their last four games — and they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. Furthermore, the Golden Flashes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in MAC play. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 28 points. And while they raced out to a 29-7 halftime lead in their last game against the Eagles, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enjoying a halftime lead of 17 or more points. The Bulls held Eastern Michigan to just 25 rushing yards which helped them outrush them by +227 net yards. But Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +225 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last contest. And while the Bulls have not allowed more than 73 rushing yards in each of their last three games after allowing Ohio to generate 186 rushing yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Buffalo had eight starters return from last year’s 10-2 team that blew out this Golden Flashes team by a 48-14 score — but Kent State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Buffalo-Kent State CBS Sports Network Special with the Kent State Golden Flashes (312) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-13-19 |
Northern Illinois +3 v. Toledo |
|
31-28 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (307) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (308). THE SITUATION: Northern Illinois (3-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 48-10 upset loss at Central Michigan as a 1-point favorite back on November 2nd. Toledo (6-3) has won their last two games after their 35-33 win over Kent State as a 3-point favorite back on November 5th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Northern Illinois is realistically out of the Mid-American Conference West division title race — but they still have bowl aspirations. Look for this team to respond with a strong effort after their embarrassing loss to the Chippewas under first-year head coach Thomas Hammock. The Huskies have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. And while they managed only 251 yards of offense against Central Michigan, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. Northern Illinois 615 total yards in a terrible defensive effort in that game with 288 of those yards in the air — but they have then covered the point spread in 36 of their last 51 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. This was a surprising effort considering that they had only allowed 244.5 total YPG in their last previous two games. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 road games played in November. Furthermore, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog getting up to 3 points. Toledo may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a win at home. The Rockets have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a narrow win by 3 points or less against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 35 points in a win over a Mid-American Conference foe. And while Toledo generated 289 rushing yards in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. But defense remains a big concern for this team that ranks 118th in the nation by allowing 467.7 total YPG. The Rockets have allowed at least 33 points in three straight games while surrendering an average of 487.3 total YPG in those contests. Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 7 games after allowing at least 31 points in two straight games. And while the Rockets have played three straight Overs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games after playing at least two straight Overs — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in six of these last seven situations.
FINAL TAKE: Toledo is being outgained by -18.5 net YPG this season but they have won all five of their close games that were decided by one scoring possession. Northern Illinois has lost three games decided by 8 points or less this year. While defending their MAC Championship from last year is likely no longer in the cards, the Huskies can still play the role of spoiler against their Mid-American Conference rival. 10* CFB Northern Illinois-Toledo ESPN2 Special with the Northern Illinois Huskies (307) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-12-19 |
Western Michigan v. Ohio +1 |
|
37-34 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Ohio Bobcats (304) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Western Michigan Broncos (303). THE SITUATION: Ohio (4-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped last Wednesday with their 24-21 upset loss at home to Miami (OH) as a 7-point favorite. Western Michigan (6-4) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four games with their 35-31 win over Ball State last Tuesday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BOBCATS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Ohio outplayed the Redhawks in that game last week — they outgained them by a 374 to 278 yardage margin while controlling the clock for over 36 minutes and they won the first down battle by a 25 to 14 margin. A -2 net turnover margin played a big role in the Bobcats downfall. But Ohio has rebounded to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. The Bobcats have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after winning two of their last three games. Additionally, Ohio has covered the point spread in 37 of their last 55 games against teams with a winning record. Western Michigan may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a victory over a conference rival. Additionally, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning two of their last three games. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 0-4 this season with an average losing margin of -16.8 PPG. Western Michigan allows their home hosts to score 42.0 PPG along with averaging 537.2 total YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Western Michigan has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. And in their last 5 games in November, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: The weather will be very cold tonight in Athens with the temperatures dropping into the teens. Ohio has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 expected close games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* CFB Western Michigan-Ohio ESPN2 Special with the Ohio Bobcats (304) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Western Michigan Broncos (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-11-19 |
Seahawks +6 v. 49ers |
|
27-24 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (273) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (274). THE SITUATION: Seattle (7-2) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 40-34 win over Tampa Bay last week in overtime as a 4-point favorite. San Francisco (8-0) remained unbeaten two Thursdays ago with their 28-25 win at Arizona as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after playing a game where both teams scored at least 30 points. The Seahawks have also played 6 straight games on the road Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. Russell Wilson should keep his team within one scoring possession (at least) in this game — he leads an offense that is tops in the NFL in the 2-minute drill. Seattle has scored at least 27 points in their last two games as well as in seven of their nine contests this season — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. Wilson completed 29 of 43 passes last week against the Buccaneers for 378 yards with five touchdown passes and no interceptions — and the Seahawks are 27-12-3 ATS in their last 42 games after a game where they generated at least 250 passing yards. Seattle goes back on the road where they are 4-0 this season with an average winning margin of +7.5 PPG. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record at home. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 6 straight road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Moving forward, the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games in November. Seattle is also 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games played on Monday Night Football. San Francisco generated 411 yards last week against the Cardinals — but they are 14-30-1 ATS in their last 45 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after playing a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Furthermore, this franchise has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning at least eight straight games. San Francisco has only covered the point spread once in their last three games as well — and they have failed to cover the point spread 8 of their last 12 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. The Niners also lost the heart and soul of their defense last week with the season-ending chest injury to linebacker Kwan Alexander. Now they return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home laying no more than 7 points. San Francisco is also just 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 8 games against teams from the NFC West, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread 6 times.
FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings with the 49ers — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against the Niners in San Francisco. 10* NFL Seattle-San Francisco ESPN Special with the Seattle Seahawks (273) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-19 |
Vikings +3.5 v. Cowboys |
|
28-24 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (271) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (272). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-3) looks to bounce-back from their 26-23 upset loss at Kansas City last week as a 5.5-point favorite that snapped their four-game winning streak. Dallas (5-3) has won two straight games with their 37-18 win in New York against the Giants last Monday as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Minnesota should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road. The Vikings have also rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. This is a dreaded prime-time game for quarterback Kirk Cousins. He has 5-12 straight-up record as the starting QB in televised prime-time games — but the underlying numbers are not bad that accompany those seventeen starts. Cousins was very sharp in his prime-time game last month against Washington where he completed 23 of 26 passes for 285 passing yards on Thursday Night Football. Wide receiver Adam Thielen is out for this game — but Minnesota is likely to lean heavily on their dynamic rushing attack with Delvin Cook leading the way for them to average a robust 153.0 rushing YPG which is third in the NFL. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 18 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And the field turf will not be anything new for this team that plays on this same surface for their home games — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games played on field turf. The Vikings will lean on their defense that ranks 4th by allowing only 17.6 PPG while also ranking 8th by giving up just 320.9 total YPG. Dallas dominated the Giants last week by outgaining them by a 429 to 271 yardage margin — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +150 net yards in their last game. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a short week after a game on Monday Night Football. Dallas has benefited from a soft schedule so far this season that has included the Giants twice along with the Jets, Washington and Miami who entered the day with a combined 6-30 record with none of those four teams having won more than two victories. Of course, the Cowboys lost to that Jets team that later handed the Dolphins their first win of the season. Dallas’ only win against a team with a winning record this year was against the Eagles — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 36 home games when favored to up to 3 points, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have covered the point spread in their last 4 meetings with the Cowboys. Look for a close game where Minnesota will have the opportunity to pull the upset. 10* NFL Minnesota-Dallas NBC-TV Special with the Minnesota Vikings (271) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-10-19 |
Ravens v. Bengals +11.5 |
|
49-13 |
Loss |
-125 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (202) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (201). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (0-8) returns to the field after their bye week after a 24-10 loss in London to the Los Angeles Rams as a 12-point underdog. Baltimore (6-2) has won four games in a row after their triumphant 37-20 win over New England last Sunday night as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: Nothing like taking a winless NFL team after a dreary Saturday in College Football! I would hate myself more for not endorsing this play (and the Bengals cover) than I will if the Ravens blow out this team today. If we are not willing to invest in this fantastic “play-against” situation, then it is time to get out of the business. Baltimore’s value with the betting public will never be higher after they pulled off two straight upset victories with their win over the Patriots preceded by a 30-16 upset win at Seattle as a 3-point underdog two weeks ago. But the personality of this team suggests they will suffer an emotional letdown. Not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least two touchdowns but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after winning two straight games by at least 14 points. The Ravens have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. And while the Baltimore defense surrendered 268 passing yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. Baltimore has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games against AFC North opponents. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against fellow AFC North foes. They have had the benefit of their bye week to prepare against the Ravens’ ground game behind Lamar Jackson. They also should have a specific offensive game plan for rookie quarterback Ryan Finley who takes over for Andy Dalton. I like Finley from his NC State days — and he played well in the preseason. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Cincinnati has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing at least eight straight games. They do return home where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And while they allowed 372 passing yards to the Rams in London, the Bengals have then covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games after allowing at least 300 passing yards in their last contest.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch from the Ravens’ 23-17 win last month on October 13th played in Baltimore. But this Baltimore team has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games played in Cincinnati. Hold your nose if it helps (I will …) but this is too many points to pass up for a home dog in a divisional matchup playing with revenge and off their bye week. 10* NFL Big Dog Surprise with the Cincinnati Bengals (202) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (201). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-10-19 |
Lions v. Bears -1 |
Top |
13-20 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (266) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (265). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-5) has lost four games in a row with their 22-14 loss at Philadelphia as a 5-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (3-4-1) has lost four of their last five games after their 31-24 loss in Oakland last week as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Taking Chicago was on my short list of sides to still consider this morning after taking into account the final injury reports — and, lo and behold, Matthew Stafford will not playing in this game with doctors ruling him out because of some broken vertebrae in his back. That makes a potentially good play into a great situation. Stafford has been quietly having an MVP level season for this Lions team that ranks 5th in the NFL in total offense. Jeff Driskel will be the quarterback under center for this team despite him not taking part in training camp as he signed with the team during the regular season. Driskel played in nine games with five starts last year for the Bengals where he completed 59.7% of his passes but averaged only 5.7 Yards-Per-Attempt. It is not encouraging that he was cut by Cincinnati after their second preseason game this season after completing just 13 of 27 passes for 136 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. I also assign zero credibility to the fact that he was picked up by the Lions as their management has been disorganized with many/most of their personnel decisions (not involving former Patriots players) — Detroit has rolled through at least three backup quarterbacks this season with Tom Savage, David Fales, and Josh Johnson (offhand) who have all been cut since. Perhaps Driskel is an upgrade over that list of names (perhaps) but he did not have the benefit of training camp to learn the Darrell Bevell offense. Quite simply, Plan A for this team has been Stafford at quarterback — and Plan B is to not worry about Plan B. For a fragile team about ready to form a mutiny against head coach Matt Patricia, this is not a good turn of events. As it is, Stafford was holding things together for this team that has collapsed on the defensive side of the football. The Lions are allowing 27.1 PPG (27th in the NFL) while ranking second-to-last by giving up 424.1 total YPG. They have allowed 33.0 PPG over their last three contests along with 441.0 total YPG — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. Their beleaguered secondary is also 31st in the NFL by surrendering 288.4 passing YPG after giving up at least 277 passing yards in five straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 275 passing yards in three straight contests. Additionally, Detroit is just 13-27-2 ATS in their last 42 road games against teams with a losing record at home — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November. The Lions are also 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow NFC North opponents. This defense may be just what the doctor ordered to get quarterback Mitchell Trubisky back on track. Chicago managed just 164 yards of offense last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after failing to generate at least 200 total yards in their last game. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score at least 15 points in their last game. And while Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after not covering point spread expectations in three straight contests. Returning home will help this team as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And look for the Bears’ defense to help by forcing Driskel and this Lions’ offense (without their injured running back Kerryon Johnson) to force mistakes and turnovers in this one. Chicago has lost the turnover battle in three straight games — but not only have they covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after suffering a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games but they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 22 games after losing the turnover war in three straight contests. This is also a team that has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams from the NFC North — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Detroit is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Bears after getting swept last season — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games at Soldier Field playing the Bears. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Chicago Bears (266) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-09-19 |
Nevada v. San Diego State -17 |
|
17-13 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (198) minus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (197). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (7-1) has won four straight games with their 20-17 win at UNLV as a 10.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Nevada (5-4) snapped a two-game losing streak last week with their 21-10 win over New Mexico as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS MINUS THE POINTS: San Diego State are favorites in the 17-point range despite having an offense that averages just 21.8 PPG. That may make it look easy to take the underdogs in this contest but I am going to trust the wisdom of the oddsmakers in setting this line. The Aztecs are not going to surrender many points in this game — they rank 8th in the FBS by allowing just 14.1 PPG and they also rank 12th in the nation by surrendering just 283.5 total YPG. Additionally, San Diego State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. While the Aztecs are playing very conservatively on offense, the flip side of that coin is that they have only turned the ball over four times this season — and never more than once in a game. San Diego State has then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not turning the ball over more than once in their last game. The Aztecs are also 11-5-1 in their last 17 games played in November. Nevada may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a victory at home. The Wolf Pack have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. Now this team goes back on the road — with a redshirt freshman quarterback in Carson Strong who has thrown more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (5) this season — where they are just 1-3. Nevada is being outscored by -27.2 PPG and outgained by -135.5 net YPG on the road this season as they are scoring just 14.0 PPG in these games while allowing their home hosts to generate 449.5 total YPG along with 41.2 PPG. The Wolf Pack have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. Nevada has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games when laying 17.5 to 21 points. Furthermore, the Wolf Pack are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Mountain West Conference opponents — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: San Diego State will also be looking to avenge a 28-24 upset loss at Nevada last October 27th where they were laying two points. But the Wolf Pack are just 2-5-1 ATS still in their last 8 meetings with the Aztecs which includes them being 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games played at San Diego State. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the San Diego State Aztecs (198) minus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (197). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-09-19 |
Wyoming v. Boise State -12.5 |
Top |
17-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (156) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (155). THE SITUATION: Boise State (7-1) rebounded from their 3-point loss at BYU last week with a 52-42 win at San Jose State last Saturday as a 16.5-point favorite. Wyoming (6-2) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 31-3 win over Nevada as a 12-point favorite two weeks ago.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: Wyoming’s victory over the Wolf Pack was preceded by a 23-10 win at home over New Mexico the previous week — but that might be setting them up for a letdown now. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two straight games by at least 10 points against fellow Mountain West Conference opponents. Now Wyoming goes back on the road where they are just 1-2 this season while being outgained by -98.0 total YPG. This Cowboys team typically enjoys a nice home-field advantage when playing in the high altitude in Laramie — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games on the road after winning two of their last three games. Compounding the matter for this Wyoming team is that they lost their starting quarterback, Sean Chambers, to a season-ending knee injury in that victory over Nevada. Tyler Vander Waal takes over again under center after completing just 3 of 10 passes against the Wolf Pack after the Chambers injury. Vander Waal was initially the starting quarterback last year but after an 0-4 start where the Cowboys were scoring only 11.5 PPG, he was benched for Chambers. Vander Waal made nine starts last year but eclipsed 200 passing yards only twice in those games. Perhaps the biggest spark that Chambers provided this team was with his mobility — he has rushed for 567 yards with 10 touchdowns on the ground this season. Wyoming is only completing 40.6% of their passes this season so the lack of mobility with Vander Waal limits the Cowboys’ effectiveness in obvious passing situations. Wyoming will be challenged by a stout Broncos run defense that is tied for 23rd in the nation by allowing only 116.3 rushing YPG. Boise State should build off the momentum of their victory last week as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Boise State has not covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The Broncos did generate 468 yards last week — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. But the defense has been an issue for this team as of late as they surrendered 497 yards to the Spartans. Boise State is 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Broncos have not allowed more than 123 rushing yards in four straight games which should serve them well against this Cowboys team — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in four straight games. Boise State returns home where they are 4-0 with an averaging winning margin of +18.8 PPG. The Broncos are scoring 37.0 PPG at home while limiting their guests to just 18.2 PPG along with only 302.2 total YPG — they are outgaining their visitors by +148.0 net YPG. Boise State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in November.
FINAL TAKE: Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. With the Broncos still controlling their fate to reach the Mountain West Conference championship game, look for them to secure a dominant victory against an undermanned Cowboys offense. 25* CFB Saturday Night ESPN Game of the Year with the Boise State Broncos (156) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-09-19 |
Iowa v. Wisconsin -7.5 |
|
22-24 |
Loss |
-103 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (194) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (193). THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (6-2) has lost two straight games after their 38-7 win at Ohio State two weeks ago as a 14.5-point underdog. Iowa (6-2) has won two straight games after their 20-0 win at Northwestern as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS MINUS THE POINTS: It was just three short weeks ago that this Wisconsin team was considering as possible one of the best this football team has ever assembled in school history. Then the Badgers were upset at Illinois as a 29-point favorite in what was considered them looking ahead to their showdown with the Buckeyes. In hindsight, that Fighting Illini team appears to be much improved under former NFL head coach Lovie Smith than we realized at the time. Wisconsin then did not have the talent to keep up with Ohio State for 60 full minutes two weeks ago — but this team should be ready to play good football again this afternoon especially with their Big Ten Championship Game aspirations still very much alive. The Badgers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Wisconsin has also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after their bye week. The Badgers return home to Madison for the first time since October 12th where they shut out Michigan State by a 38-0 score. Wisconsin is 5-0 at home this year where they are scoring 41.2 PPG while averaging 450.2 total YPG — and they are holding their guests to only 5.8 PPG along with just 177.0 total YPG. The Badgers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. And while they held the Wildcats to just 202 total yards two weeks ago, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 275 total yards in their last game. Now this team goes on the road again where they are scoring just 13.7 PPG along with averaging only 292.0 total YPG. The Hawkeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November under head coach Kirk Ferentz.
FINAL TAKE: The Hawkeyes have not been a very good underdog as of late. Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when they were getting the points as the dog. Iowa has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road as the underdog where they (obviously) also lost all seven games. 20* CFB Iowa-Wisconsin Fox-TV Special with the Wisconsin Badgers (194) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (193). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-09-19 |
LSU v. Alabama -5.5 |
|
46-41 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (168) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (167). THE SITUATION: Alabama (8-0) takes the field again after their 48-7 win over Arkansas as a 32-point favorite two weeks ago. LSU (8-0) comes off a 23-20 win over Auburn back on October 26th where they were 11.5-point favorites at home.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS: It looks like Tua Tagovailoa will play in this game after taking part in practice this week. Head coach Nick Saban has been cagey about his status — his mobility will likely be not at 100%. Tagovailoa underwent the same tight rope procedure on his ankle as he did last December which allowed him to play in the National Semifinals against Clemson. Most importantly for the Crimson Tide offense, Tagovailoa should be able to execute the Alabama passing attack that ranks 5th in the nation by averaging 338.0 passing YPG. The Crimson Tide are scoring 50.6 PPG while averaging 504.4 total YPG at home this year. They have scored at least 35 points in all eight of their games this season — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 31 points in at least five straight games. This offense has also done an outstanding job of protecting the football as they have only turned the ball over five times this year while never turning the ball over more than once in their eight games. Saban’s teams are very tough to beat when they protect the football as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not turning the ball over more than once in three straight games. The freshmen linebackers who have been pressed into duty early this season are also continuing to improve. Over their last three games, the Tide are surrendering just 277.7 total YPG which is -29.8 total YPG better than their season average. LSU did gain 508 yards against the Auburn defense two weeks ago — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Don’t be surprised if the Tigers get off schedule in this game and face more 2nd/3rd and long situations than they have been used to. LSU is not gaining positive yards in 17% of their rushing attempts this season (38th in the nation) — and quarterback Joe Burrow is getting sacked on 6% of standard passing downs which is 81st in the FBS. Joe Brady is getting plenty of accolades of him bringing in a sophisticated passing attack to this team after serving as an assistant offensive coach for the New Orleans Saints — but the shotgun heavy scheme has struggled in the Red Zone close to the goal line. The Tigers rank 50th in the Success Rate once inside the 10-yard line — and they rank 80th in Success Rate when reaching 1st-and-Goal. This is not a good sign for a team that has scored only 26 combined points in their last four meetings with Alabama. LSU has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 road games when getting 3.5 to 7 points.
FINAL TAKE: Saban has a big edge in coaching expertise with his staff over the Tigers under Ed Orgeron (even with Brady who is not calling plays). The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Tide. And Saban makes sure the LSU showdown occurs in as optimal of conditions as possible. This is Alabama’s third straight home game as they have been at home in Tuscaloosa since their game at Texas A&M on October 12th. The Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 52 games after playing their last two games at home. And the Tide have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after their bye week. The extra time will help them scheme against the Brady passing attack — but they were already familiar with that approach which is not uncommon outside the LSU football offices before this season. 10* CFB LSU-Alabama CBS-TV Special with the Alabama Crimson Tide (168) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (167). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-08-19 |
Washington -9.5 v. Oregon State |
|
19-7 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (115) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (116). THE SITUATION: Washington (5-4) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 33-28 loss at home to Utah last Saturday as a 3-point underdog. Oregon State (4-4) has two games in a row with their 56-38 upset victory at Arizona as a 4.5-point underdog last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: The Beavers have won two straight games via upset as they preceded their victory over the Wildcats with a 21-17 upset win at Cal as a double-digit dog. Oregon State may be due for an emotional letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Beavers did not force a turnover against Arizona last week either — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after a game where they did not force a turnover. Now after playing their last two games on the road, this team returns home where they are just 1-3 with their lone victory being against FCS opponent Cal-Poly SLO. Oregon State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Behind sixth-year senior quarterback Jake Luton, the Beavers can put points up on the board — they are averaging 33.6 PPG. But defense remains a problem for this Beavers team that returned nine starters from a unit that was 128th in the FBS by both allowing 45.7 PPG and by giving up 536.8 total YPG. Oregon State has only mildly improved on that side of the ball this season as they are allowing 32.4 PPG along with 439.3 total YPG which is tied for 104th and 104th respectively. Moving forward, the Beavers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played in November — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a Friday night. Washington had not allowed more than 20 points in each of their first five games but they have surrendered 68 combined points in their last two contests. The Huskies have played three straight games Over the Total — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after playing at least two straight Overs. Washington needs to get back to running the football after Salvon Ahmed ran the ball only 14 times last week. Ahmed is still averaging 89 rushing YPG this season — and while the Huskies managed only 53 rushing yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. While Washington’s inexperienced defense that returned only two starters from last year has taken a step back by allowing 375.3 total YPG (55th in the nation), the offense should score plenty of points against the suspect Beavers’ defense. Georgia transfer Jacob Eason leads an offense that is scoring 34.9 PPG which is 29th in the nation — and the Huskies are 39th int he nation by generating 257.3 passing YPG. Washington also averages 36.3 PPG along with 407.0 total YPG when playing on the road. Eason completed 29 of 52 passes for 316 yards against the stout Utah defense last week — and the Huskies have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Washington has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing on a Friday night — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Washington-Oregon State FS1-TV Special with the Washington Huskies (115) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (116). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-07-19 |
Chargers v. Raiders +2 |
|
24-26 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (108) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Chargers (107). THE SITUATION: Oakland (4-4) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 31-24 win over Detroit as a 2.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (4-5) has won two straight games after their 26-11 upset win at home over Green Bay on Sunday as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): The Chargers have pulled off two straight upset victories as they proceeded their win over the Packers with a 17-16 upset win at Chicago where they were getting a field goal. But this team is likely to suffer an emotional letdown now playing on a short week. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after an upset victory in their last game as a home underdog. The Chargers are also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Chargers are playing better defense as of late as they have surrendered only 27 combined points in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight games. Furthermore, while Los Angeles held Green Bay to only 184 yards of offense last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last contest. Additionally, the Chargers are just 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games against teams from the AFC. Oakland will be playing in just their fourth true home game of the season after a five-game stretch which were all played away from Oakland Coliseum were two road games sandwiched their game in London where they were the technical home team. The Raiders have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in their last 3 home games as the underdog getting up to 3 points. Furthermore, Oakland has allowed at least 388 yards in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 contests after allowing at least 375 yards in two straight games. Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn recently replaced his offensive coordinator, Ken Whisenhunt, for a faltering offense — and while tapping Shane Steichen as the new OC, he called on the offense to commit to running the ball more. This focus on running the football will play into the Raiders’ strength on defense as they rank 7th in the NFL by allowing just 92.5 rushing YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have won the last four meetings between these two teams after sweeping this AFC West series in the last two seasons. But with this being an emotional night in Oakland’s Coliseum in the last meeting between these two teams in this venue, expect a close game where the Raiders will have the opportunity to pull the upset. 3* NFL LA Chargers-Oakland Fox-TV Special with the Oakland Raiders (108) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Chargers (107). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-07-19 |
Temple -1.5 v. South Florida |
Top |
17-7 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (111) minus the point(s) versus the South Florida Bulls (112). THE SITUATION: Temple (5-3) has lost two in a row after their 63-21 loss to Central Florida back on October 26th as an 11-point underdog. South Florida (4-4) has won three of their last four games with their 45-20 win at East Carolina as a 1-point favorite on October 26th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a critical game for first-year head coach Rod Carey with the bad loss at home to Central Florida preceded by a 45-21 loss at SMU the previous week. Carey does have the benefit of extra time and preparation for this game to right the proverbial ship of this Owls team. He inherited a group that has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Temple has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 58 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Owls managed only 266 yards of offense against the Knights — but they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. Temple also surrendered 614 yards to Central Florida in that loss — but they have then covered the point spread in 37 of their last 53 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. This remains a quality team that upset the Memphis team last month that handed the Mustangs their first loss of the season last week. The Owls have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in November. South Florida may be due for a letdown for this game as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. This team is also just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a bye week. The Bulls’ success against the Pirates in their last game was propelled by their rushing for 347 yards which took the pressure off redshirt freshman quarterback Jordan McCloud who has been pressed into duty after the September season-ending injury to returning starter Blake Barnett. McCloud only attempted 12 passes in that victory — but South Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The Bulls are averaging just 172.9 passing YPG which is 110th in the nation. Now South Florida returns home where they are just 2-2 this season with an average losing margin of -8.3 PPG along with being outgained by -118.5 net YPG. The Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing at home.
FINAL TAKE: South Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They raced out to a 7-1 start last season before folding down the stretch with six straight losses where they were outscored by -19.2 PPG under head coach Charlie Strong. Look for Temple to rebound with a big win for them on the road. 5* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Year with the Temple Owls (111) minus the point(s) versus the South Florida Bulls (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-06-19 |
Miami-OH v. Ohio -7 |
|
24-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Ohio Bobcats (106) minus the points versus the Miami (OH) Redhawks (105). THE SITUATION: Ohio (4-4) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 34-21 upset win at Ball State as a 1.5-point underdog back on October 26th. Miami (OH) (4-4) has also won three of their last four games after their 23-16 win at Kent State as a 2.5-point underdog two Saturdays ago on October 26th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BOBCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio opened the season by losing their first three games with a very challenging non-conference schedule at Pittsburgh and Marshall while hosting a tough Louisiana-Lafayette team. But their 75-year old head coach Frank Solich continues to teach with his staff always developing his players for what usually results in stronger second halves of the season in his fifteen years with the program. The Bobcats won six of their last seven games last year culminating in a 27-0 win over San Diego State in the Frisco Bowl. Ohio’s upset victory over the Cardinals on the road last week is likely a harbinger for more good things to come for this team. The Bobcats bad covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after pulling off an upset victory — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 straight games at home after an upset victory. Furthermore, Ohio has covered the point spread 6 of their last 9 games after winning two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after winning two of their last three games. The development of skill players on offense was a concern for this team entering the season — but Ohio has scored at least 34 points in each of their last three games while averaging 38.3 PPG and 485.3 total YPG in those contests. Those numbers are very close to last year’s 40.1 PPG and 466.8 total YPG averages that ranked 12th and 14th in the FBS. The Bobcats still have quarterback Nathan Rourke under center — the senior is averaging 284.9 total YPG this season after rushing for 127 yards last week in the win at Ball State. Solich will want his defense to play better after they allowed 240 rushing yards last week. Ohio has allowed their last two opponents to average 6.42 and 6.43 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games — but the Bobcats have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 6.25 YPPG and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Additionally, Ohio has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after playing at least three straight against conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games in the second half of the season. Miami is also showing the benefits of a difficult non-conference schedule. The Redhawks opened the season with losses to Iowa, Ohio State, and Cincinnati but have pulled off two straight upset victories in a 27-24 win against Northern Illinois two weeks ago as a 2-point underdog before their upset win last week against the Golden Flashes. But this team may be due for a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games after a bye week. And while the Redhawks offense averaged 6.49 YPP in their last game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Miami is quarterbacked by a true freshman in Brett Gabbert (Blaine’s brother) — but he is completing only 53.1% of his passes while throwing five touchdown passes along with five interceptions. Those are ominous numbers for a team staying on the road where they are 1-4 this season while being outscored by -24.6 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Solich should have his team ready to play tonight with the memory of their 30-28 upset loss to Miami last year by a 30-28 score despite being a 4.5-point favorite. Look for Ohio to avenge that loss with a decisive victory. 10* CFB Miami (OH)-Ohio ESPN2 Special with the Ohio Bobcats (106) minus the points versus the Miami (OH) Redhawks (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-05-19 |
Ball State +7 v. Western Michigan |
|
31-35 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Ball State Cardinals (103) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (104). THE SITUATION: Ball State (4-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped back on October 26th with their 34-21 upset loss at home to Ohio where they were 1.5-point favorites. Western Michigan (5-4) has won two of their last three games with their 49-10 win over Bowling Green on October 26th as a 26.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Michigan has been consistently inconsistent as of late — they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points. The Broncos stay at home for what is their last home game of the season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Furthermore, Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when favored in the 3.5 to 10 point range — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight home games when favored by 7 points or less. Ball State has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after suffering an upset loss as a home favorite. The Cardinals did average 6.38 Yards-Per-Play against the Bobcats after averaging 8.66 YPP in their 52-14 blowout win over Toledo in their previous game. The Cardinals have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. Junior quarterback Drew Plitt has been steady by completing 64.9% of his passes for 1977 yards with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions — but he has thrown only one interception over his last three games. He should keep Ball State in a position to win this game against this Broncos defense that ranks 99th in the nation by allowing 252.3 passing YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Ball State has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 26 road games as an underdog getting 7 points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in Kalamazoo against the Broncos. 10* CFB Ball State-Western Michigan ESPN2 Special with the Ball State Cardinals (103) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-04-19 |
Cowboys v. Giants +7.5 |
|
37-18 |
Loss |
-115 |
24 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (476) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (475). THE SITUATION: New York (2-6) has lost four straight games after their 31-26 loss in Detroit to the Lions as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Dallas (4-3) snapped their three-game losing streak back on October 20th with their 37-10 win over Philadelphia for Sunday Night Football as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys may be due for an emotional letdown after their long layoff from their big success on national television. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after a blowout win at home by at least three touchdowns. The Cowboys raced out to a 27-7 halftime lead over the Eagles in that game but they might not be a good sign for them in this game considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. The Dallas offense slows down when away from AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys are scoring 27.1 PPG along with 437.9 total YPG this season — but those numbers drop to just 21.0 PPG along with 376.0 total YPG on the road this year. Dallas is also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after holding their last opponent to 14 points or less. The Cowboys are 5th in the NFL by giving up only 17.7 PPG — but they have allowed their last three opponents to score 22.7 PPG which makes getting another touchdown or so with the point spread very attractive. This defense will also be without one of their best players in linebacker Leighton Vander Bosch who is likely out with a neck injury for this game. Dallas has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on Monday Night Football. New York should play well in this divisional rematch as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after losing at least four straight games. The Giants’ loss in Detroit last week came on the heels of a 27-21 loss at home to Arizona the previous week. The Giants went into halftime against the Lions trailing by a 17-13 score after trailing to the Cardinals after the first 30 minutes by a 17-14 margin. New York has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 25 points in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 20 games after allowing at least 17 points in the first half of their last two contests. The Giants did generate 370 yards against the Detroit defense — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. This offense is getting healthy once again with Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram back on the field after missing time with injuries. And while wide receiver Sterling Shepard will likely not play in this game as he re-entered the concussion protocol, they have an emerging target for rookie Daniel Jones in fellow rookie wideout Darius Slayton who starred at Auburn. The New York run defense was then fortified at the trade deadline with the Giants acquiring the 300-LB defensive lineman Leonard Williams from the Jets. New York has played much better on defense when playing at home this season — their four visitors are scoring just 17.2 PPG while averaging only 308.2 total YPG. The arrow is pointing up for this Giants team that is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
FINAL: This is a rematch of the Cowboys’ 35-17 victory at home over the Giants back on September 8th — and New York has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road to their opponent. 10* NFL Dallas-NY Giants ESPN Special with the New York Giants (476) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-03-19 |
Patriots v. Ravens +4 |
|
20-37 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (474) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (473). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (5-2) returns off their bye week after winning their third straight game in a row with their 30-16 victory at Seattle as a 3-point underdog. New England (8-0) remained undefeated last week with their 27-13 win over Cleveland as a 10-point favorite. Baltimore (5-2) returns off their bye week after winning their third straight game in a row with their 30-16 victory at Seattle as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: Head coach John Harbaugh will have his team very prepared this showdown — Baltimore has won nine of their last eleven games straight-up when playing after their bye week and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games when playing with two weeks off between games. The Ravens have only covered the point spread once in their last six games — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Quarterback Lamar Jackson completed 9 of 20 passes in that win over the Seahawks for 143 yards — but Baltimore is 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games after failing to pass for at least 150 yards in their last game. Jackson does get his best deep threat back for this game in Marquise “Hollywood” Brown who has been out for weeks with his ankle injury. Jackson is also a big threat with his legs as he rushed for 576 yards this season while averaging 6.94 Yards-Per-Carry. Baltimore is 2nd in the NFL by averaging 30.6 PPG — and they also rank 2nd in the league by averaging 434.9 total YPG. The Ravens defense should also have success in stuffing the Patriots rushing attack and force Tom Brady to beat them with his depleted wide receiving corps — they rank 3rd in the league by allowing only 84.3 rushing YPG. Over their last three games, Baltimore has held its opponents to just 18.7 PPG along with only 288.7 total YPG. New England has thrived off a very easy schedule to start the season. Remember, the best team they have faced has been a Bills team they played on the road where they won by just a 16-10 score. the Patriots are averaging just 342.5 total YPG over their last three games which is -27.4 net YPG below their season average that ranks just 16th in the league. New England has a banged-up offensive line — and they lack reliable deep threats from their wide receivers from a group that has moved on from both Antonio Brown and now Josh Gordon. Remember that the Patriots have scored four defensive touchdowns while adding another two special teams touchdowns this season. Take away those 42 points (with the extra point) — and the Patriots scoring average of 31.2 PPG drops to 25.95 PPG. They face a Ravens team that has not committed a turnover in four of their seven games — so they are unlikely to be gifted the ball the way the Browns, Jets, and Giants have over the last three weeks where New England forced 13 combined turnovers. The Patriots have won the turnover battle in five straight games — and they have enjoyed a +5 and +3 net turnover margin in their last two games. But New England has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after having a +1 or better turnover margin in at least five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enjoying a +3 or better turnover margin in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: The 27-13 final score for the Patriots last week looks like it was an easy victory over the Browns — but they only outgained Cleveland by a 318 to 310 mark in yardage. Their +3 net turnover margin in that game helped them overcome losing the battle of the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football — and this is an area of strength for the Ravens. Expect a close game with Baltimore in a position to pull the upset. 10* NFL New England-Baltimore NBC-TV Special with the Baltimore Ravens (474) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-03-19 |
Packers v. Chargers +4.5 |
|
11-26 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (472) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (471). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-5) looks to build off their 17-16 upset win in Chicago last week as a 3.5-point underdog. Green Bay (7-1) has won four straight games with their 31-24 win in Kansas City as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. Green Bay is also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. This Packers team looks to have plenty of fans in Los Angeles for this game — but it would be a mistake to say they will have the “advantage” since much of the inherent edge for home teams comes from the familiarity of playing on that field in that specific stadium at least nine times a season (including preseason games). Green Bay is 7-1 this season being outgained by their opponents overall in yardage. They are surviving because their +8 net turnover margin — but the Turnover Gods are fickle. The Packers have enjoyed three net close victories by one scoring possession. And while they are 3-0 away from Lambeau Field this season, they are being outgained by -77.4 net YPG due to their offense only averaging 307.3 total YPG. Los Angeles enters November where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games. They were outgained by 126 rushing yards last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after being outrushed by at least 100 yards in their last game. Getting a healthy Russell Okung back into the mix full time should help get their ground game going. And this is still Phillip Rivers under center — and he has been the quarterback for the vast majority of the 61 of the team’s last 109 games they have covered as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. While the Chargers are 3-5 this season, they are outgaining their opponents by +10.5 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Green Bay is just 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games in November. They are laying too many points to pass up with a veteran team that made the playoffs last year. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Chargers (472) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-03-19 |
Titans v. Panthers -3 |
Top |
20-30 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (458) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (457). THE SITUATION: Carolina (4-3) saw their four-game winning streak crumble last Sunday in an embarrassing 51-13 loss at San Francisco as a 4-point underdog. Tennessee (4-4) has won two straight games with their 27-23 win over Tampa Bay as a 2-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINSU THE POINTS: Carolina should respond with a strong effort after this big loss. Tight end Greg Olsen addressed the team about the importance of responding with a strong effort for this game with the memory of this team going on a seven game losing streak after getting humiliated in Pittsburgh last season by a 52-21 score. The Panthers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a loss on the road by at least 21 points. Carolina went into halftime trailing by a 27-3 score as they were never competitive in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after trailing by at least 14 points at halftime of their last game and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after trailing by at least 21 points at halftime of their last contest. Kyle Allen had his worst game as a starter for this team as he threw three interceptions while completing just 19 of 37 passes for 158 yards. The Niners were the first team to pick off an Allen pass this season — the former high school phenom (before a disjointed college career marred by tough internal competitions with Kyler Murray and head coaches jumping ship on him to bigger programs) is still completing 62.3% of his passes this season with 7 touchdowns and just those three interceptions. A healthy Murray under center is in a much better position to execute the schemes of offensive coordinator Norv Turner than a gimpy Cam Newton has been able to in the past. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 14 points. Additionally, Carolina has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. This remains a ream that has covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 home games after winning at least four of their last five games. Tennessee comes off a perfect 2-0 home stand with their win against the Buccaneers preceded by a 23-20 win over the Rams. But the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning their last two games by 6 points or less. This inconsistent Tennessee team is also 14-29-1 ATS in their last 44 games after a point spread win. The Titans did show some cracks with their defense as they allowed 389 yards to the Bucs — and they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The bigger concerns for this team is on offense with a group that ranks 27th in the NFL by averaging just 299.0 total YPG. Ryan Tannehill has replaced Marcus Mariota under center — but this team is still scoring just 16.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 284.3 total YPG over that span. With defenses being able to stuff the box to stop the Titans running backs, Tennessee has not managed more than 97 rushing yards in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in three straight games. Now this team goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Titans are just 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games in November. Carolina has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against non-conference opponents. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Carolina Panthers (458) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (457). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-03-19 |
Texans v. Jaguars |
|
26-3 |
Win
|
100 |
35 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (453) minus then points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (454). THE SITUATION: Houston (5-3) has won three of their last four games after their 27-24 win over Oakland last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Jacksonville (4-4) has won two straight contests with their 29-15 win over the NY Jets last Sunday as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINT(S): Houston has covered the point spread in 6 straight games away from home after a straight-up win. The Texans are also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Houston has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after they won at least three of their last four games. This team has lost their star linebacker, J.J. Watt, to a season-ending pectoral injury. But this Texans team is winning because of their offense that ranks 4th in the NFL by averaging 395.0 total YPG. Head coach and acting general manager Bill O’Brien was chastised by many for the trade with the Dolphins that brought over Laremy Tunsil but he has played like a top-ten left tackle in the league while stabilizing what has too often been a leaky offensive line for star quarterback Deshaun Watson. Houston has averaged 417 YPG over their last three games — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after averaging at least 375 YPG over their last three contests. The Texans have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November. Jacksonville followed up their 27-17 win at Cincinnati with their 14-point win against the Jets. But not only have the Jaguars failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after a double-digit win but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after winning their last two games by at least 10 points. Jacksonville was favored in both those games as well but they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after covering the point spread in two straight games where they won straight-up as the favorite. Gardner Minshew completed 22 of 34 passes for 279 yards against the Jets defense but the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Jacksonville has generated 389 and 460 yards in their last two games. However, they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 road games after gaining at least 375 yards in two straight games. The concern with this Jags’ offense is their productivity in the Red Zone as they are scoring touchdowns in just 35.7% of their trips inside the 40-yard line which is 30th in the NFL. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has won sixteen of their last twenty-one games going back to last season — and Watson is 15-5 in his career when starting after September. This is a rematch of the Texans’ 13-12 victory at home over the Jaguars back on September 15th. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread 9 of their last 14 games when attempting to avenge a loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread 10 of their last 14 games against fellow AFC South opponents. 10* NFL Houston-Jacksonville London Calling Special with the Minshew should have success in this Texans defense missing Watt that was already allowing 276.1 passing YPG which is 28th in the NFL. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-03-19 |
Fresno State +2.5 v. Hawaii |
|
41-38 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (395) plus the points versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (396). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (3-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 41-31 upset loss to Colorado State as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday. Hawai’i (5-3) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 45-31 win at New Mexico where they were laying 10 points as the favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Fresno State should bounce-back with a strong effort as they are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a loss. The Bulldogs allowed the Rams to generate 500 total yards in that game with 322 of those yards in the air. Fresno State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 40 yards in their last contest. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 22 games against teams with a winning record, Fresno State is 16-5-1 ATS. Hawai’i has not been consistent as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. They also are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while the Rainbow Warriors surrendered 500 yards to the Lobos, they are then 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 games after giving up at least 450 yards in their last game. Hawai’i returns home where they have not retained much of a home-field advantage.
|
11-02-19 |
Army +17 v. Air Force |
|
13-17 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (363) plus the points versus the Air Force Falcons (364). THE SITUATION: Army (3-5) has suffered four losses in a row after their 34-29 upset loss to San Jose State last Saturday as a 10-point favorite. Air Force (6-2) has won their last three games with their 31-7 win over Utah State as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: This has been a frustrating stretch for sixth-year head coach Jeff Monken with his team suffering three straight upset losses. Army were road favorites against Western Kentucky then Georgia State and lost both of those games before coming home last week and playing flat in their loss to the Spartans. The Black Knights were still suffering the emotional letdown of two straight upset losses in the first half of that game as they went into halftime trailing by a 23-10 score. Army eventually outgained San Jose State by a 429 to 403 yardage margin but lost the turnover battle. Nothing like facing a fellow service academy opponent to raise the spirits of this Black Knights’ team with the Commander’s Trophy still very much alive for this team that finished 11-2 last season after rattling off nine straight victories. Army has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after suffering an upset loss at home. And while the Black Knights rushed for 326 yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight road games after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last game. Army has only covered the point spread twice this season — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Now the Black Knights go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Air Force’s victory over the Aggies feel well below the 60 point Total in that game — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Falcons have each of their last three games while covering the point spread as the favorite. But Air Force has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering point spread expectations in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning and covering the point spread in three straight contests as the favorite. The Falcons have not allowed more than 82 rushing yards in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in three straight contests. The last team to topple that mark was Navy in the first Saturday of last month who upset the Falcons by a 34-25 score — and Army will be operating a similar offense of that of the Midshipmen in this game. Air Force has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Army enjoyed three net close wins decided by 8 points or less last season — but they have already lost three games decided by one scoring possession including a double-overtime heartbreaker at the Big House against Michigan. This remains a talented Black Knights team that defeated the Falcons last year by a 17-14 score. Expect a close game with Army playing their best game in a month. 10* CFB Army-Air Force CBS Sports Network Special with the Army Black Knights (363) plus the points versus the Air Force Falcons (364). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-31-19 |
49ers v. Cardinals +12 |
Top |
28-25 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (302) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (301). THE SITUATION: Arizona (3-4-1) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 31-9 win at New Orleans as an 11-point underdog. San Francisco (7-0) remained undefeated this year with their 51-13 blowout win over Carolina as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: The final score is not indicative of how close Arizona’s game was last week as they entered the fourth quarter trailing by just a 17-9 score before the Saints pulled away by scoring two final touchdowns. The Cardinals have bounced back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least 21 points. Arizona only had the ball for 22:01 minutes in that game which provides some context as to why they only generated 237 yards of offense. The Cardinals are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Arizona needs to tighten up on defense after allowing New Orleans to gain 510 total yards of offense. The Cardinals have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 500 yards in their last game. This team had been playing better under rookie head coach Kliff Kinsbury who has shown promise with his offensive schemes by not staying rigid with the Air Raid offense that he deployed at Texas Tech while incorporating more two-tight end formations to embrace the sophistication of the NFL. Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray continues to improve as well — he is completing 64.8% of his passes while throwing for 1768 passing yards in his first eight starts. Murray will not be complemented by a talented running back in Kenyon Drake who was acquired from Miami at the trade deadline to replenish an injury-depleted backfield. San Francisco may be due for a letdown playing on a short week after their dominant win on Sunday. The 49ers are just 15-32-4 ATS in their last 51 games after a win by at least 14 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 52 games on the road after win by at least two touchdowns. San Francisco has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Niners rushed for 232 yards which helped them gain 388 total yards. But San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game — and they are just 14-30-1 ATS in their last 45 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The 49ers defense has been outstanding this season — the 13 points that the Panthers scored on Sunday was the most they have allowed in their last four games. But they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 17 points in four straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona won’t lack for confidence in this game after sweeping the 49ers in their two meetings last year. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against division rivals — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 road games when favored by 7.5 to 10 points. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Arizona Cardinals (302) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-31-19 |
Georgia Southern v. Appalachian State -14 |
Top |
24-21 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Appalachian State Mountaineers (304) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (303). THE SITUATION: Appalachian State (7-0) remained undefeated this season with their 30-3 win at South Alabama last Saturday as a 27.5-point favorite. Georgia Southern (4-3) has won three straight games after their 41-7 win over New Mexico State as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Appalachian State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after win on the road against a conference rival. The Mountaineers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by at least 20 points. This is a loaded team for first-year head coach Eyah Drinkowitz with fifteen starters back from the group that finished 11-2 last year. Reigning Sun Belt Conference Offensive Player of the Year, quarterback Zac Thomas, is completing 66.7% of his passes this season while averaging 7.6 Yards-Per-Pass Attempt. Appalachian State is 9th in the nation by averaging 41.0 PPG. While Thomas has kept opposing defenses honest with his arm, the Mountaineers are 14th in the nation by averaging 244.1 rushing YPG. On defense, Appalachian State is 18th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 19.0 PPG. The Mountaineers held the Jaguars last week to just 139 total yards — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Appalachian State has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Mountaineers return home where they are 4-0 while outscoring their opponents by +27.5 PPG due to their offense that is averaging 51.5 PPG along with 476.0 total YPG. Appalachian State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Georgia Southern is considered better than their record given injuries they sustained in the early part of the season — headlined by three-year starter Shai Werts at quarterback. Werts’ return to the field helped trigger their three-game winning streak — but this team was fortunate to survive a two overtime game with South Alabama and a three overtime thriller with Coastal Carolina before their easy win over the Aggies last week. The Eagles have rushed for at least 310 yards in three straight games while outrushing all three of these opponents by at least 175 yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 225 yards in two straight games and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after outrushing their last two opponents by at least 125 yards. But Georgia Southern is one dimensional as they are averaging just 48.7 passing YPG which is last in the nation. They will be trying to run against a solid Mountaineers run defense that holds their opponents to just 3.89 Yards-Per-Carry. Now the Eagles go back on the road where they are just 1-2 while being outscored by -17.4 PPG and being outgained by -139 total YPG. Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing on field turf.
FINAL TAKE: Appalachian State has won thirteen straight games with their last loss being at Georgia Southern where they were upset by a 34-14 score despite being an 11-point favorite back on October 25th. The Mountaineers should be very motivated to avenge that loss — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games when laying 10.5 to 21 points. 25* CFB Thursday ESPNU Game of the Year with the Appalachian State Mountaineers (304) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-28-19 |
Dolphins v. Steelers -14 |
Top |
14-27 |
Loss |
-101 |
3 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (278) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (277). THE SITUATION: Miami (277) has lost their first six games of the season after their 31-21 loss at Buffalo last Sunday as a 17-point underdog. Pittsburgh (2-4) has won two of their last three games with their 24-17 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 6-point underdog two weeks ago back on October 13th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS: There are two technical handicapping angles (for my eyes only) that compel me to love this situation for the Steelers. However, I am reticent to lay so many points in the NFL. But, what I like so much about these NFL primetime games is that I can invest a few hours of time to address and solve concerns I have regarding a handicapping situation. So, I went back to 2017 to look at how double-digit favorites perform. The bottom line reads that favorites laying 10 or more points are just 37-43 ATS since the start of the 2017 season. But, looking deeper, when these favorites are laying at least 14 points, these teams become a profitable 20-13 ATS including 6-3 ATS this season. Now, 20-13 ATS is not a reason to take favorite laying 14 or more points. However, that is enough for me to remove my predisposition to avoid otherwise good situations only because the point spread is so high. Pittsburgh is coming off a bye and needs this victory to stay competitive in what is a still wannabe AFC North division. They are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a point spread victory. The Steelers are also a decisive 50-24-2 ATS in their last 76 games in October which includes them covering the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games played in October which is likely a testament to the continued improvement this team makes under Mike Tomlin and his coaching staff. The defense is certainly playing better as they have held their last three opponents to just 19.0 PPG along with only 292.3 total YPG. Pittsburgh returns home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 appearances on Monday Night Football. Miami is last in the NFL by scoring 10.5 PPG and averaging just 258.7 total YPG — it might not take many points for the Steelers to be covering this point spread. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, Miami is 7-24-1 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 12 road games as the underdog. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as a double-digit underdog.
FINAL TAKE: I have often worried about this Steelers team in situations where they can get complacent. But with Ben Roethlisberger out the season and Mason Rudolph returning at quarterback, I think the sense of urgency should still permeate their locker room. Ryan Fitzpatrick is back as the starting QB for Miami — and he has thrown five interceptions already this season. Pittsburgh is 2nd in the league with 15 takeaways (all since Week Two) — and they are undefeated in their six games against Fitzy as a starter. Finally, I suspect Tomlin will not take the foot off the accelerator tonight as he looks to boost Rudolph’s confidence with a big offensive effort. Lets lay the wood. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (278) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-19 |
Packers v. Chiefs +5.5 |
|
31-24 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (216) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (215). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (5-2) snapped a two-game losing streak two Thursdays ago with their 30-6 win at Denver as a 3-point favorite. Green Bay (6-1) has won three straight games after their 42-24 win over Oakland as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas City will be without Patrick Mahomes who was not cleared to play by the Chiefs medical staff — so it will be Matt Moore under center for this team. Moore is capable to run the Andy Reid offense albeit without the mobility and dynamic playmaking ability of Mahomes. Moore has 30 career starts under his belt whose 46 career touchdown passes are more than his career 36 interceptions. He will benefit from a full week of practice — and he has a healthy Tyreek Hill back at wide receiver with whom he connected for a touchdown last week. Moore was 10 of 19 for 117 yards with that TD and no interceptions in relief last week. The Chiefs should build off their momentum (and extra time to rest and prepare) after that win over the Broncos. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win over an AFC West foe — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win on the road. The Chiefs have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Now KC returns home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record on the road. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a double-digit victory — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. And while the Packers have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the spread in two of their last three contests. Green Bay is also just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. This Packers offense is scoring only 22.0 PPG on the road while averaging just 274.0 total YPG away from home — and this is just their third game on the road this season. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. QB Aaron Rodgers will likely still be without his top target in wide receiver Davante Adams who is listed as doubtful with his turf toe injury.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas City is not often an underdog anymore in the Mahomes era — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as the dog. The Chiefs remain loaded with talent even without their starting quarterback while this Packers team is a bit overrated when considering that they have a 6-1 record despite being outgained in yardage (-7.6 net YPG). 10* NFL Green Bay-Kansas City NBC-TV Special with the Kansas City Chiefs (216) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (215). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-19 |
Giants +7 v. Lions |
Top |
26-31 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (251) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (252). THE SITUATION: New York (2-5) has lost three games in a row with their 27-21 upset loss at home to Arizona last week as a 3.5-point favorite. Detroit (2-3-1) has also lost three in a row with their 42-30 loss at home to Minnesota last week as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss to a divisional rival. While the loss to the Vikings was deflated, the players on this team were then dealt what they consider to be a sucker punch by management when starting safety Quandre Diggs was traded to the Seattle (who are overjoyed in snagging him). Diggs was a captain of this team — and the Lions only received a fifth round draft pick in return — which is why many players spoke out in anger about this move. Strong organizations could handle these kind of rifts but this is not the Detroit Lions who already had a shaky relationship with second-year head coach Matt Patricia. Don’t be surprised if this team comes out very flat as a touchdown favorite after this recent series of events. The Lions had been playing well by covering the point spread in four straight games before that double-digit loss to Minnesota — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 53 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The play of the defense has collapsed as of late which is not a good sign for Patricia who got this head coaching gig by being considered a defensive guru. After holding their first three opponents to 20.3 PG along with 397.4 total YPG, they have allowed their last three opponents to score 33.0 PPG while averaging 463.0 total YPG with that latter number being last in the NFL over that span. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. Injuries are also beginning to impact this team. Cornerback Darius Slay is not available with a hamstring injury which challenges this defense even further — and starting running back Kerryon Johnson was placed on Injured Reserve with a knee injury. The Lions have been outrushed by -85 and -114 yards in their last two games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after being outrushed by at least 75 yards in two straight games. New York has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing three in a row. The Giants need to get off to a faster start after allowing Arizona to take a 17-14 halftime lead last week. Minnesota took an 18-7 halftime lead against them in the previous week — but New York has then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 17 first half points in two straight games. This team does have running back Saquon Barkley healthy along with tight end Evan Engram — and rookie quarterback Daniel Jones has been solid. Jones completed 22 of 35 passes last week for 223 yards while adding 35 rushing yards as he displays mobility that Eli Manning was not able to offer this offense. The Lions do not have an elite pass rusher so Jones will benefit from the lack of pressure. The Giants have been a reliable road team as of late as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a losing record at home. New York has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. The Giants need to limit turnovers as they have lost the turnover battle in two straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after enduring a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. And while New York has allowed at least 27 points in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 25 points in three straight contests.
FINAL TAKE: The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 52 of their last 83 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. With this unstable Detroit team beginning to show the signs of fracture, expect a close game from a Giants team that is optimistic about the future with Jones under center. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the New York Giants (251) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-19 |
Jets +7.5 v. Jaguars |
Top |
15-29 |
Loss |
-145 |
3 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (259) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (260). THE SITUATION: New York (1-5) looks to rebound from their embarrassing 33-0 loss at home to New England on Monday Night Football as a 9.5-point underdog. Jacksonville (3-4) comes off a 27-17 win at Cincinnati last Sunday as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: New York and quarterback Sam Darnold hit rock bottom last week against the outstanding Patriots defense. Darnold was “seeing ghosts” by leading an offense that generated only 154 total yards — and the Jets committed a whopping six turnovers for an insurmountable -5 net turnover margin. But this was also the team that had just defeated Dallas the previous week by a 24-22 score. Darnold had looked like he had turned a corner in his development before last week. Over his last four games last season, Darnold had a Quarterback Rating of 99.1 while throwing six touchdown passes and just one interception. And then in his two starts this season, Darnold had a QBR of 97.6 while completing 69.9% of his passes for 513 yards with three touchdown passes and just one interception before the debacle against the Patriots. I expect a bounce-back effort this afternoon. The Jets have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after playing on Monday Night Football. New York has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Jets have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 15 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Jacksonville may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit victory on the road. Furthermore, the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. And while the Jags benefited from a +4 net turnover margin last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after enjoying a +3 or better turnover margin in their last game. Jacksonville generated 460 yards of offense last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Despite that offensive output, rookie Gardner Minshew is regressing as a quarterback after his fantastic start. Minshew completed 66.7% of his passes with a 105.6 Passer Rating while averaging 255.8 passing YPG with nine touchdown passes and one interception in his first five starts. But over his last two games, Minshew has just a 68.9 Passer Rating while averaging only 209 passing YPG while completing just 47.5% of his passes with one TD pass and an interception. Now this team returns home where they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars did suffocate the struggling Bengals rushing attack to just 33 rushing yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the New York Jets (259) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-19 |
Arizona State -2.5 v. UCLA |
|
32-42 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arizona State Sun Devils (209) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (210). THE SITUATION: Arizona State (5-2) looks to bounce-back from a 21-3 loss at Utah last Saturday as a 16-point underdog. UCLA (2-5) looks to build off their 34-16 upset win at Stanford two Thursdays ago as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUN DEVILS MINUS THE POINTS: Arizona State should respond with a strong effort after playing poorly against the Utes. The rain certainly played a role in their difficult in moving the football — the Sun Devils managed only 136 yards of offense in that game. Arizona State has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Sun Devils have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Arizona State has covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after they failed to cover the point spread. The Sun Devils play outstanding defense as they rank 18th in the nation by allowing only 18.1 PPG. UCLA benefited from facing a Cardinal offense playing a third-string freshman quarterback — that is one of the reasons we had the Under in that contest. But the Bruins are 4-15-2 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up win — and they are 4-14-2 ATS in their last 20 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, UCLA has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. And while the Bruins have gained 455 and 492 yards in each of their last two games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after generating at least 450 yards in two straight games. UCLA returns home where they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games at home — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: UCLA is 0-3 at home this season are they are being outscored by -20 PPG and being outgained by -119.6 net YPG. Look for the Sun Devils to bounce-back with a focused effort. 10* CFB Saturday Nigth Discounted Deal with Arizona State Sun Devils (209) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (210). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-19 |
Missouri -9.5 v. Kentucky |
Top |
7-29 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Missouri Tigers (157) minus the points versus the At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Missouri Tigers (157) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (158). THE SITUATION: Missouri (5-2) looks to bounce-back from their 21-14 upset loss at Vanderbilt last Saturday as a 21-point favorite. Kentucky (3-4) comes off a 21-0 loss at Georgia last Saturday as a 23.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: It took me some time to get exactly to the bottom of the Kentucky quarterback situation. Junior quarterback Terry Wilson suffered a likely season-ending knee injury in the first month of the season. Junior Sawyer Smith became the starter under center after but he got banged up with shoulder and wrist injuries that compelled head coach Mark Stoops to move wide receiver Lynn Bowden, Jr. to be his starting quarterback given the season-ending injury to freshman Nik Scalzo who was third on the depth chart to the begin the season. This is a case of Stoops putting the football in the hands of his best offensive talent — and he did look dynamic in rushing for 99 yards on 17 carries against the Bulldogs defense last week. But Bowden only completed 2 of his 17 passes in that game for 17 yards. Admittedly, the weather conditions were challenging for the passing game with the rain and high winds — but how much can we expect in the passing game from a converted wide receiver. Smith was suited up to play in that Georgia game but Stoops indicated that he did not feel comfortable playing him in that bad weather. Smith is on the injured list this week as questionable with a bye week coming up for Kentucky — so what is the deal with them at QB this week? Mum is the word as of this late afternoon — but I have decided this situation is worthy of a strong investment. I suspect both quarterbacks will play tonight. Even is Smith plays, he is completing only 46.2% of his passes while averaging just 5.7 Yards-Per-Attempt with four TD passes and five interceptions. I don’t have confidence in Bowden operating the passing game — so this is a one-dimensional offense that will be playing Mizzou. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Now the Wildcats return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games in the second half of the season. Kentucky has covered the point spread in two straight games as well as five of their seven games this season. But the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Kentucky is covering point spreads due to their defense ranks 47th in the nation by allowing just 23.3 PPG. And while the Wildcats have allowed just 122 and 35 passing yards in each of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after not allowing more than 125 passing yards in two straight contests. Missouri should be primed for a big effort as they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after an upset loss on the road where they were laying at least 7 points. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss while they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Senior quarterback Kelly Bryant played one of his worst games in a Missouri uniform by completing just 13 of 26 passes for 140 yards — but the former Clemson quarterback did rush for 72 yards. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Mizzou should score their share of points — but it is their outstanding defense that should lead the way for them tonight. The Tigers are 14th in the nation by allowing just 16.6 PPG — and they rank 7th in the nation by giving up just 270.1 total YPG. This is a balanced defensive unit that ranks 26th in the nation in run defense and 6th in the nation in pass defense.
FINAL TAKE: Missouri should be able to rely on the cover skills of their defensive backs to then stuff the box to stop the Wildcats run while shadowing Bowden for his potential running plays from the pocket. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. 5* CFB SEC Game of the Month with the Missouri Tigers (157) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (158). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-19 |
Oklahoma State +10.5 v. Iowa State |
Top |
34-27 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (169) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (170). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (4-3) has suffered two straight upset losses after their 45-27 loss at home to Baylor last Saturday as a 5.5-point favorite. Iowa State (5-2) has won three straight games with their 34-24 win at Texas Tech as a 10-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma State feels like they left one slip after holding a 4th quarter lead over the Bears before allowing them to score 21 straight points over the final 10 minutes of that game. That loss came on the heels of a 45-35 upset loss at Texas Tech as a 9.5-point favorite the previous week. The Cowboys should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset loss by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a double-digit loss a tome. And while the Cowboys have lost three of their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing three of their last four games. Oklahoma State needs to tighten up on defense after allowing 536 yards to Baylor last week — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Turnovers are also killing this team — they have turned the ball over eight times over the last two weeks and their -2 net turnover margin last week was punctuated by allowing a 20-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. The Cowboys are tied for 123rd in the nation with a -1.29 net turnover margin per game — but the Regression Gods tend to intervene when numbers like that get too skewed. Oklahoma State has not forced more than one turnover in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to force more than one turnover in three straight contests. The Cowboys are led by running back Chuba Hubbard who leads the nation with 1265 rushing yards this season — he is averaging a remarkable 180.7 rushing YPG. He leads the way for an Oklahoma State offense that is 7th in the FBS by averaging 519.9 total YPG. This offense travels — they are scoring 39.2 PPG while averaging 516.0 total YPG away from home. The Cowboys are dangerous underdogs with their powerful offense — they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games as the underdog. Oklahoma State has also covered the point spread in 35 of their last 53 games with the Total set in expected high scoring games with the Toal set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Iowa State has won three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They are also just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win. Sophomore quarterback Brock Purdy completed 23 of 32 passes for 378 yards last week against the Red Raiders while leading the offense to 564 total yards. But the Cyclones have failed to move the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 375 passing yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 525 total yards in their last contest. Additionally, Iowa State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Cyclones may not be able to help themselves to look ahead to their off week coming up after this game before showdowns with Texas and Oklahoma — and they are feeling good about themselves with their new Top-25 ranking. But the Cowboys will remember their 48-42 upset loss at home to Iowa State last season as a 10-point favorite. Expect a close game where Oklahoma State will be in a position to pull the upset. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (169) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (170). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-19 |
Oklahoma v. Kansas State +24 |
|
41-48 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas State Wildcats (182) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (181). THE SITUATION: Kansas State (4-2) snapped a two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 24-17 upset win over TCU where they were 4.5-point underdogs. Oklahoma (7-0) remains unbeaten last week with their 52-14 win over West Virginia as a 33-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas State can keep this game close because they are a very good defensive football team that has not allowed more than 31 points all season. The Wildcats hold their visitors to just 15.5 PPG at home this season while limiting them to just 302.0 total YPG. Kansas State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. First-year head coach Chris Klieman’s team will have a situational edge with this being their third straight game at home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. The Wildcats have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games getting more than 14 points as the underdog. Additionally, Kansas State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win at home by at least four touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games after a win against a conference opponent. The Sooners are once again putting up huge offensive numbers this season as they have scored at least 34 points in all seven of their games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after scoring at least 31 points in at least four straight contests. And in their last 8 expected high scoring games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range, Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: The Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when laying more than two touchdowns. 10* CFB Oklahoma-Kansas State ABC-TV Special with the Kansas State Wildcats (182) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (181). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-19 |
Redskins +17.5 v. Vikings |
|
9-19 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (101) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (102). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-6) enters this short week coming off a 9-0 loss at home in torrential rain against San Francisco as a 10-point underdog. Minnesota (5-2) has won three straight games with their 42-30 win at Detroit last Sunday as a 2.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SKINS PLUS THE POINTS: This is simply too many points for an underdog on a short week that has a solid defense. I know that Washington is an ugly team to take in this situation — but that explains why the line keeps rising with bettors preferring the “better” team. Washington has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a game where no more than 14 combined points were scored. And while the Skins have only covered the point spread once in their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Washington has also covered the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games on the road after losing five or six of their last seven contests. Furthermore, the Skins have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Minnesota has won three games in a row all by at least 12 points — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after at least two straight wins by double-digits. And while the Vikings have been favored (and covered the point spread) in their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after three straight games as the favorite. Despite the recent success of their three-game winning streak, the Minnesota defense has 400 and 433 yards in each of their last two games. The Vikings have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 400 yards in two straight contests.
FINAL TAKE: This remains Kirk Cousins playing in a primetime game where he has a 4-12 straight up record in his career. And this primetime game also offers a stage for Adrian Peterson to earn a measure of revenge against his old team in the Vikings. Minnesota can struggle with complacency — it is too much to expect them to cover this big point spread. 10* NFL Washington-Minnesota Fox-TV Special with the Washington Redskins (101) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-19 |
Patriots v. Jets +11.5 |
|
33-0 |
Loss |
-135 |
4 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Jets (476) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). THE SITUATION: New York (1-4) looks to build off their 24-22 upset win at home against Dallas last Sunday as a 7-point underdog. New England (6-0) comes off a 35-14 win at the New York Giants as a 16.5-point favorite two Thursdays ago back on October 10th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: New York played much better with Sam Darnold back under center after missing three games after contracting mononucleosis. The second-year quarterback completed 23 of 32 passes for 338 yards with two touchdown passes while leading the Jets’ to 382 yards of offense in their upset victory over the Cowboys. Darnold seemed to have taken a big step in his development in the last quarter of the season last year. Over his last four games, Darnold had a Quarterback Rating of 99.1 while throwing six touchdown passes and just one interception. In his two starts this season, Darnold has a QBR of 97.6 while completing 69.9% of his passes for 513 yards with three touchdown passes and just one interception. While the Jets are scoring only 12.6 PPG this season, that number does bump up to 18 PPG in Darold’s two games which looks pretty good when adding the ten or so points as the underdog in this game. New York has covered the point spread in a decisive 35 of their last 55 home games after playing a game at home in their last game. The Jets are also 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, New York has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games in the month of October. New England was a 16-point favorite in their 33-7 win at Washington two weeks ago before their easy win at MetLife against the Giants last week. But the Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning their last two games by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in two straight games as a double-digit favorite. And while New England has outgained their last two opponents by 214 and 222 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after outgaining their last two opponents by at least 150 net yards in both contests. Furthermore, while the Patriots lead the NFL by averaging 31.7 PPG this season, that number drops to 25.9 PPG when taking away their three defensive touchdowns and two additional touchdowns coming from special teams. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 road games when favored by 7.5 to 12 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to the Meadowlands to face the Jets on the road. Expect a closer than expected contest in this rematch from New England’s 30-14 victory in Foxboro back on September 22nd again a New York team playing without Darnold. The Jets have covered the pint spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least two touchdowns. 10* NFL New England-NY Jets ESPN Special with the New York Jets (476) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-19 |
Eagles v. Cowboys -2.5 |
|
10-37 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (474) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (473). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-3) looks to bounce-back from their 24-22 upset loss in New York against the Jets as a 7-point favorite. Philadelphia (3-3) also looks to rebound from a 38-20 loss at Minnesota where they were 3.5-point underdogs.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: This is one of those games where careful handicappers and bettors wait for the final active/inactive reports before making a final call. The good news for Dallas is that they look to get a handful of important players back tonight. Most importantly, their outstanding left tackle, Tryon Smith, will be protecting Dak Prescott’s blind side tonight as he returns from his ankle injury. Offensive linemen La’el Collins and Zack Martin have also been upgraded to probable which is critical for this team — the offensive line is the straw that stirs the drink for this team as it both fuels the ground game for Ezekiel Elliott while also protecting Prescott who is a much better passer when his jersey is clean. Prescott will also have his top two receiving targets in Amari Cooper and Randall Cobb for this game. The Cowboys have pulled off the rare and dubious feat of being upset in three straight games — usually, these teams eventually become underdogs. It is telling that Dallas remains favored for this NFC East showdown tonight. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing three of their last four contests — and they have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against fellow opponents from the NFC East. The Cowboys did manage to generate 399 yards last week even with their injuries on offense — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They return home where they are scoring 30.0 PPG while averaging 511.0 total YPG. Dallas did surrender 326 passing yards to the Jets last week — but they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 300 yards in their last game. Philadelphia is also feeling with a bevy of injuries but the news is not as good for them. On offense, wide receiver DeSean Jackson, running back Darren Sproles, and left tackle Jason Peters are all out. Sproles is a nice change-of-pace back but the Eagles have other options. The absence of Jackson really hurts as he is the team’s most credible deep threat which opens up the field for Carson Wentz. Peters is an All-Pro left tackle. On defense, Philly looks likely to get cornerback Jalen Mills back on the field but his partner Ronald Mills remains questionable with his hamstring. But linebacker Nigel Bradham is out along with nickel back Avonte Maddox. The defense is already without starting linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill and defensive linemen Tim Jernigan and Malik Jackson. The depth this team enjoyed at the beginning of the season is already being severely tested. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road. Philadelphia allowed 447 yards to the Vikings last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They stay on the road for a second straight week where they are allowing 29.5 PPG along with 435.0 total YPG. On offense, the Eagles are only averaging 349.3 total YPG which is 20th in the NFL. Philly has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing on field turf.
FINAL TAKE: Wentz has not been as nearly as successful when playing on the road where he has lost fourteen of his twenty-three starts. In this gut-check game for both teams, look for the home field to make the difference. 10* NFL Philadelphia-Dallas NBC-TV Special with the Dallas Cowboys (474) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-19 |
Saints v. Bears -4 |
Top |
36-25 |
Loss |
-107 |
5 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (472) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (471). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-2) returns to the field again after getting embarrassed in London back on October 6th in their 24-21 upset loss to Oakland as a 6.5-point favorite. New Orleans (5-1) has won four games in a row with their 13-6 upset win at Jacksonville as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Chicago should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. And while the Bears managed only 236 yards of offense, Chicago has then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. Chase Daniel was the starting quarterback across the pond but Mitchell Trubisky will be back under center with the additional time to rehab his bum shoulder. Trubisky has struggled this season but I think he will benefit from the time off to regain perspective about his role in the offense. That game with the Raiders flew over the 40 point total — and Chicago has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a game that finished Over the Total. The Bears also get one of their important offensive weapons back in Taylor Gabriel who scored a touchdown in his last game on Monday Night Football before suffering a concussion that has kept him out this month. Chicago returns home where they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 7 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Chicago has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams from the NFC. New Orleans will be without running back Alvin Kamara who is dealing with an ankle. While Teddy Bridgewater has been solid in relief of the injured Drew Brees, the absence of Kamara leaves this Saints’ offense lacking star power on the offensive side of the football. That is not a good sign when facing this elite Bears defense that is allowing only 13.8 PPG along with just 312.2 total YPG. New Orleans is scoring only 18.3 PPG on the road while averaging just 278.3 total YPG. The Saints outgained the Jaguars by +100 yards last week after winning the yardage battle against Dallas by +205 yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 30 games after outgaining their last two opponents by +100 net yards. And while the Jaguars managed only 75 rushing yards last week, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: The Saints’ 5-1 record is accompanied by a mere +4.0 net YPG margin this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Chicago Bears (472) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-19 |
Vikings -2.5 v. Lions |
Top |
42-30 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (457) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (458). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (4-2) has won two straight games after their 38-20 win over Philadelphia last week as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Detroit (2-2-1) looks to bounce-back from a 23-22 loss at Green Bay on Monday Night Football as a 3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKING MINUS THE POINTS: Don’t be surprised if the Lions are emotionally flat in this game after they feel they were jobbed by the referees on Monday night. This is a losing franchise that has little experience with successfully picking themselves off the mat when facing adversity. That narrow loss came on the heels of their 34-30 loss at home to Kansas City in their previous game before a bye week where everything was focused on the Packers. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after losing two straight games by 6 points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing their last two games where they did cover the point spread in both games. The Lions have met point spread expectations in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. Detroit has won the turnover battle in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after having at least a +1 net turnover margin in three straight contests. Now the Lions return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games as an underdog getting up to 3 points. They host a Vikings team that has owned them as of late. Minnesota swept the divisional series last season while not allowing Detroit to score more than 9 points in either contest. Matthew Stafford has lost his last three starts against the Vikings with only two touchdown passes in those three contests — and two of those games were at home at Ford Field. Minnesota has seen much better play from their quarterback since wide receiver Adam Thielen called him out publicly for his need to be more aggressive in the passing game. Kirk Cousins has responded with two straight 300-yard passing games with six touchdown passes. He has completed 78.5% of his passes in those games while averaging a healthy 11.4 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Vikings are very tough to beat when they get their offense cranking since their defense has not allowed more than 21 points all season. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. Minnesota has generated 447 and 490 yards over their last two games — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 375 yards in two straight games. The Vikings go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams who are not winning more than 50% of their games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games when playing in a dome. Furthermore, Minnesota has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota is 17-8-3 ATS in their last 28 meetings with the Lions — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Detroit. Look for the Lions to find a way to lose another one. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (457) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-19-19 |
Western Michigan v. Eastern Michigan +10 |
|
27-34 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Eastern Michigan Eagles (348) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (347). THE SITUATION: Eastern Michigan (3-3) has lost two straight games after their 29-23 loss to Ball State last week where they opened as a 2-point favorite and closed around a 1.5-point underdog. Western Michigan (4-3) looks to build off their 38-16 win over Miami (OH) as a 12-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after a point spread win. Western Michigan has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Western Michigan was actually outgained by a 365 to 310 yardage margin to the Warhawks but used a +2 net turnover margin and a 74-yard interception return for a touchdown to earn the win. Now the Broncos go back on the road where they are 0-3 this season while getting outscored by -20.0 PPG due to a defense that is allowing their home hosts to average 44.7 PPG along with 534.0 total YPG. Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road. We had Eastern Michigan last week after playing four of their first five games on the road but they disappointed with flat effort fueled by a -3 net turnover margin. The Eagles have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss. Eastern Michigan has also covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a loss by a touchdown or less against a Mid-American Conference rival. This remains a team that has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles will be motivated to avenge a 27-24 loss at Western Michigan last October 6th. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the month of October. 20* CFB Big Dog Surprise with the Eastern Michigan Eagles (348) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (347). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-19-19 |
Army -4 v. Georgia State |
|
21-28 |
Loss |
-109 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (323) minus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (324). THE SITUATION: Army (3-3) has lost their last two games with their 17-8 upset loss at Western Kentucky as a 5-point favorite last Saturday. Georgia State (4-2) comes off a 31-21 win over Coastal Carolina as a 3.5-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINTS: Army should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. The Black Knights have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a game where neither team scored more than 17 points. Remember, this is the same team that almost pulled the upset at Michigan in the Big House. Army has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. They are also 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Now they stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Blacknights will hope they get their ground game going to get their defense off the field. The Hilltoppers gave them a piece of their own medicine by being on offense for almost 39 minutes in that game. But this Panthers’ team is not familiar with the spread triple-option run by the military academies. And, as it is, Georgia State is allowing their opponents to average 200 rushing YPG while averaging 5.6 Yards-Per-Carry. The Panthers are just 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread win. This team does not possess much of a home-field advantage — they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home. And in their last 6 games against teams outside the Sun Belt Conference, Georgia State is 1-4-1 ATS.
FINAL TAKE: The Panthers are likely to suffer a letdown after pulling off the upset against a conference opponent. Georgia State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games in the second half of the season. 20* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Army Black Knights (323) minus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (324). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-19-19 |
Oregon v. Washington +3 |
|
35-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (368) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (367). THE SITUATION: Oregon (5-1) has won four games in a row with their 45-3 win over Colorado last Friday as a 23.5-point favorite. Washington (5-2) comes off a 51-27 win at Arizona last Saturday as a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: The Ducks may be due for a letdown after their easy win at home against the Buffaloes. Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread win as a double-digit favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Ducks are averaging 36.0 PPG on offense led by their NFL prospect at quarterback in Justin Herbert. But in their two games on the road — both against quality defenses — Oregon sees their scoring average drop to just 21.0 PPG along with averaging only 326.0 total YPG. A big concern for this team is their Red Zone offense where they rank just 102nd in the nation. The Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Oregon did generate 527 yards of offense against Colorado — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. This Washington team also plays very good defense — they rank 28th in the nation by allowing only 19.6 PPG. Visitors are scoring only 17.0 PPG at Husky Stadium while averaging just 336.7 total YPG. The Huskies return home where are 3-1 this season while outscoring their opponents by +19.5 PPG.
|
10-19-19 |
Purdue v. Iowa -17 |
Top |
20-26 |
Loss |
-112 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (344) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (343). THE SITUATION: Iowa (4-2) has lost two straight games after their 17-12 loss at home to Penn State last Saturday as a 3.5-point underdog. Purdue (2-4) comes off a 40-14 upset win over Maryland last Saturday as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa has faced a difficult track as of late with a trip to Ann Arbor to face Michigan in which they lost by a 10-3 score where they were 4.5-point underdogs before hosting the Nittany Lions last week. The Hawkeyes outplayed Penn State for most of that game as they outgained them by a 356 to 294 yardage margin. A -2 net turnover margin played a large role in dooming Iowa last week. Iowa should respond with a big effort this afternoon. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after only covering the point spread once in their last three games. Iowa should get their offense going again against this suspect Boilermakers' defense after facing two of the toughest defenses in the nation. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Iowa has only rushed for 71 combined yards over their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to rush for at least 125 yards in two straight games. Iowa is still averaging 32.0 PPG at home this season where they are generating a robust 475.7 total YPG. Senior quarterback Nate Stanley is leading an offense that is averaging a healthy 256.0 passing YPG. Purdue may be just what the proverbial doctor ordered as they are allowing 29.8 PPG — and they rank 104th in the nation by allowing 444.5 total YPG due to a porous pass defense that is giving up 278.0 passing YPG which is 112th in the nation. The strength of this Hawkeyes team is their defense — they rank 5th in the nation respectively by allowing only 10.2 PPG and just 260.8 total YPG. At home in Kinnick Stadium, Iowa is limiting their guests to just 8.5 PPG along with 220.0 total YPG. The Hawkeyes did not force a turnover last week — but they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 home games after failing to force at least one turnover in their last game. Iowa has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. Purdue came off a surprising performance at home against the Terrapins — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after an upset victory by at least three touchdowns. The Boilermakers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win by at least 20 points. This Boilermakers team is ravaged with injuries right now — headlined by their senior quarterback, Elijah Sindelar, out the season with a collarbone injury and their All-American wide receiver, Mondale Moore, still out with a leg injury. Redshirt freshman Jack Plummer stepped up last week by completing 33 of 41 passes for 420 yards with three touchdown passes to lead an offense that generated 547 total yards. But the assignment is much tougher this week on the road against this Hawkeyes defense. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards. And the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Purdue is also undermanned on defense with senior defensive tackle Lorenzo Neal and senior linebacker Markus Bailey (who bypassed leaving early for the NFL last year) out for the season. These absences hurt a defense that is giving up 34.5 PPG. Iowa should come close to scoring at least 35 points in this game — and their defense will not allow many points to a freshman quarterback. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Iowa Hawkeyes (344) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (343). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-18-19 |
UNLV v. Fresno State -14.5 |
Top |
27-56 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (316) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (315). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (2-3) looks to bounce-back from their 43-24 loss at Air Force last Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog. UNLV (2-4) looks to build off their 34-10 win at Vanderbilt as a 16.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: The Rebels pulled off one of the biggest victories in the five-year tenure of head coach Tony Sanchez — but he is still on the hot seat with this being a “bowl or bust” season for him. UNLV is due for an emotional letdown after pulling off that upset against a team from the SEC. The Rebels have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after an upset victory as a road underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win as a double-digit underdog. UNLV has also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after a win on the road. As it is, the Rebels have been consistently inconsistent under Sanchez as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread victory. Defense remains an issue for this team that has allowed at least 30 PPG and over 420 total YPG in every season since 2008. This year, UNLV is tied for 108th in the nation by allowing 32.8 PPG — and they are also giving up 431.8 total YPG which is 98th in the nation. In their two conference games this year, the Rebels are allowing 45.5 PPG along with 502.5 total YPG. This sketchy defensive play will put the pressure on redshirt freshman quarterback Kenyon Oblad who will once again be under center given the knee injury suffered by Armani Rogers in late September. Rogers is available to play tonight but Sanchez tapped Oblad as his starter yesterday. UNLV had failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 road games against teams who are not winning more than 50% of their games at home. The Rebels are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games in conference play. Fresno State went into halftime last week with a 24-22 lead before getting dominated by the Air Force ground game that kept the Bulldogs off the field. They had only 13 offensive plays in the second half while averaging just 1.3 Yards-Per-Play. The Bulldogs managed only 12 first downs in that game while being on offense for just 20:31 minutes — but this team has covered the point spread 8 of their last 12 games after failing to generate at least 13 first downs and being on offense for at least 26 minutes. Fresno State is also 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games after a straight-up up loss. They should be able to run the ball behind Ronnie Rivers (253 rushing yards this season) to get the tempo of the game back in their favor — UNLV ranks 113th in the nation by allowing 209.7 rushing YPG. The Bulldogs managed only 268 yards last week — but they are 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. Fresno State is scoring 34.5 PPG at home while averaging 408.0 total YPG — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games at home. They are also 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Third-year head coach Jeff Tedford has done a great job with this program — his teams won 22 games in his first two seasons. This year would be a challenge with only nine starters returning from last year’s Mountain West Conference champions. Fresno State crushed UNLV in Las Vegas last year by a 48-3 score — and they are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games in the month of October. With two non-conference losses against quality teams in Minnesota and USC, the Bulldogs still can salvage their season in their second MWC game — but it starts with a big win tonight. 25* CFB Friday CBS Sports Network Game of the Year with the Fresno State Bulldogs (316) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (315). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-18-19 |
Pittsburgh v. Syracuse +4 |
|
27-20 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Syracuse Orange (312) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (311). THE SITUATION: Syracuse (3-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Thursday with their 16-10 loss at NC State as a 4.5-point underdog. Pittsburgh (4-2) has won three straight games with their 33-30 upset win at Duke as a 3.5-point underdog back on October 5th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ORANGE PLUS THE POINTS: This is a critical game for this Syracuse team that is finishing a run of four games at home in five contests — they will then be on the road for three of their next four contests. The Orange remain winless in ACC play with losses to Clemson and the Wolfpack last week. But this is a team that has still covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning two of their last three games. The Orange did not commit a turnover in that game against NC State — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. Syracuse entered this season with high expectations with thirteen starters back from last year’s 10-3 squad that defeated West Virginia by a 34-18 score in the Camping World Bowl. This was considered the best roster yet for head coach Dino Babers in his four years with the program. Over their last three games, the offense has picked up under quarterback Tommy Devito has they are scoring 34.3 PPG along with averaging 430.3 total YPG. The Orange have also held their last three opponents to just 17.3 PPG along with only 353.0 total YPG. Syracuse has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Pitt benefited from six Blue Devils turnovers in their victory almost two weeks ago. But the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after forcing at least five turnovers in their last game. Pitt survived that game despite committing four turnovers of their own. The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 41 road games after committing at least three turnovers in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after turning the ball over at least four times in their last game. A 26-yard interception return for a touchdown made the winning difference against Duke — but Pitt only rushed for 69 yards which were their second-lowest rushing total of the season. The Panthers have then failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 37 road games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in their last contest. Pitt is scoring only 21.5 PPG this season which is 107th in the nation. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their five boarded games this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games.
FINAL TAKE: Syracuse will also be motivated to avenge a 44-37 upset loss in overtime last year where they were 3-point road favorites. Look for another close game with the Orange having a good chance to pull the upset (but take the points for some insurance). 10* CFB Pittsburgh-Syracuse ESPN Special with the Syracuse Orange (312) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-19 |
Chiefs -3 v. Broncos |
|
30-6 |
Win
|
101 |
7 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (303) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (304). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (4-2) has lost two games in a row after their 31-24 upset loss at home to Houston on Sunday. Denver (2-4) has won their last two games with their 16-0 shutout win over Tennessee as a 1-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City is struggling with a bevy of injuries — but they did get Patrick Mahomes’ favorite target back last week in wide receiver Tyreek Hill. After suffering two straight upset losses at the hands of the Colts and then the Texans last week, look for the Chiefs to get back to their winning ways tonight. Kansas City is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games against teams from the AFC. Additionally, the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against teams from the AFC West. And while Kansas City surrendered 472 yards of offense to the Texans last week, they have then covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 games on the road after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. The Chiefs have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Denver is scoring just 17.7 PPG this season which is 26th in the NFL — and they are averaging only 336.2 total YPG which is also 25th in the league. The Broncos are likely to settle for field goals with the Chiefs scoring touchdowns to pull out this game. Denver has played their last two games Under the Total which has helped them win both games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after playing their last two games Under the Total. The Broncos are also 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing 14 or fewer points. Additionally, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against fellow AFC West opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 meetings with the Broncos — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against them in Denver. 10* NFL Kansas City-Denver Fox-TV Special with the Kansas City Chiefs (303) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-16-19 |
South Alabama v. Troy -14.5 |
Top |
13-37 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Troy Trojans (302) minus the points versus the South Alabama Jaguars (301). THE SITUATION: Troy (2-3) has lost two straight games after their 42-10 loss at Missouri as a 25.5-point underdog back on October 5th. South Alabama (1-5) has lost four straight games with their 20-17 loss in overtime to Georgia Southern as a 10-point underdog back on October 3rd.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS MINUS THE POINTS: Troy needs to establish some momentum in Sun Belt Conference action after suffering two previous upset losses to Southern Mississippi and against conference rival Arkansas State already this season. Thirteen starters returned from last year’s team that finished 10-3 after a 42-32 win over Buffalo in the Dollar General Bowl. Things have been a bit rocky for first-year head coach Chip Lindsey who took over for Neal Brown who took the head coaching job at West Virginia. But talent remains on this team — and a conference championship is still in reach as well as another bowl appearance. The Trojans have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Getting senior quarterback Kaleb Barker back under center will help — he was knocked out of the game with the Tigers but he has been upgraded to probable with the extra time to prepare for this game. Troy has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game — and they are 36th in the nation in both scoring (34.6 PPG) and total yardage (450.8 YPG). The Trojans return home where they are scoring 42.7 PPG while averaging 521.7 total YPG. Troy needs to tighten up on defense — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The weakness for the Trojans defense is against the pass where they are allowing 308.6 passing YPG which is 124th in the FBS. But the Jaguars are not a dynamic passing team as they average just 149.0 passing YPG which is 121st in the nation. Their quarterback, Cephus Johnson, is completing only 53.6% of his passes with five touchdown passes and five interceptions. South Alabama will have trouble running the ball against this Troy defense that is 14th in the nation by allowing just 93.9 rushing YPG. The Trojans are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games against Sun Belt foes. The Jaguars come off their best game of the season in that narrow loss to the Eagles — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. South Alabama gained only 247 yards in that game — and 135 of those yards came on two long plays. The Jaguars had only four first downs against the Georgia Southern defense (four — not a typo!). On paper, the South Alabama defense looks stout as they rank 35th in the nation by allowing just 199.3 passing YPG — but those numbers are skewed after last week when the Eagles were happy to rush the ball 66 times for 310 yards. The Jaguars are 106th in the nation by allowing 200.8 rushing YPG. Troy should be able to pass the ball against this South Alabama pass defense that allows opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.3% of their passes while averaging 8.5 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. Now the Jaguars go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home. South Alabama has turned the ball over 13 times already this season — so this nationally televised night game in a hostile environment could be challenging for them.
FINAL TAKE: Troy won last year’s Battle of the Belt last season at South Alabama by a 38-17 score — but they will still be motivated to avenge a 19-8 loss at home to the Jaguars despite being a 19-point favorite in 2017. This shapes up to be a “get right” game for Troy against a weak South Alabama team whose only win was against Jackson State. 25* CFB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Troy Trojans (302) minus the points versus the South Alabama Jaguars (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-14-19 |
Lions +5 v. Packers |
|
22-23 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (275) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (276). THE SITUATION: Detroit (2-1-1) takes the field again after their 34-30 loss at home to Kansas City as a 7.5-point underdog two weeks ago back on September 29th. Green Bay (4-1) comes off a 34-24 upset win in Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit has gotten healthy with the benefit of their bye week. The Lions have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a bye week. The eye test suggests that the Lions played pretty good defense to slow down Patrick Mahomes. Head coach Matt Patricia has proven himself one of the best schematic defensive coaches in the league — and it is telling that the Chiefs have scored only 37 combined points in their last two games since that game with Detroit. Bill Belichick also used some of the Patricia blueprints in the Lions’ defensive game plan against the Rams in last year’s Super Bowl. Detroit has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. And while the Lions allowed 438 yards to the Chiefs in that game, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Detroit did generate 447 yards in that contest. The Lions are a surprising 6th in the NFL by averaging 387.5 total YPG — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Matthew Stafford is finding success in an offense that is asking him to do less — he completed 21 of 34 passes for 291 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions against Kansas City. Detroit has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now the Lions go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road — and they are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread win. The Packers defeated the Cowboys despite being outgained by a 563 to 335 margin. A +3 net turnover margin played a big role in Green Bay pulling off that upset. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Packers have won four of their five games despite being outgained by -39.6 net YPG. Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow NFC North foes.
FINAL TAKE: The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing on Monday Night Football — and the Lions have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on Monday Night Football. Detroit has won four straight games against the Packers while winning three of their last four games in Lambeau Field — so they will be confident playing this game. Expect a close one where the dog will have a chance to win outright. 10* NFL Detroit-Green Bay ESPN Special with the Detroit Lions (275) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-13-19 |
Steelers +7 v. Chargers |
Top |
24-17 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (273) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (274). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-4) looks to rebound from their 26-23 loss in overtime last week at home against Baltimore as a 7.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (2-3) looks to bounce-back from a 20-13 upset loss at home to Denver as a 4-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Chargers are overvalued right now with bettors remembering their nice playoff run last season. Injuries have devastated this team. The defense is playing without their best player in safety Derwin James. The offensive line is down two starters with left tackle Russell Okung on the PUP list with his heart issue and now center Mike Pouncey being played on Injured Reserve this week with a neck injury. Los Angeles was outgained by -104 net yards last week to a winless Broncos team. They do have running back Melvin Gordon back — but Austin Ekeler was doing quite fine (or better?) as they lead running back in his absence. Quarterback Philip Rivers may be showing the signs of his age — the Charters offense only generated 246 yards last week. The Chargers have then ailed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Los Angeles stays at home where they simply do not have much of an advantage playing in a smaller soccer stadium in front of a fan base that is more enamored with the Rams. The Chargers are 1-2 at home this season where they are being outscored by -2.7 PPG and outgained by -18.3 net YPG. Los Angeles is 11-28-1 ATS in their last 40 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Pittsburgh will be relying on Devlin Hodges as their quarterback with Mason Rudolph not yet having cleared the concussion protocol. I first learned about Hodges when handicapping preseason football which requires getting a good grasp on every backup QB. Hodges broke the all-time passing yards record in the FCS last year playing for Samford. He has impressed NFL scouts with his moxie and ability to operate practice squad offenses. The Steelers were so impressed with him from raining camp that they felt comfortable trading away Josh Dobbs despite the possibility that they would need their third-string QB. And Hodges was confident and effective in relief last week as he completed 7 of 9 passes for 68 yards while adding another 20 yards on the ground in leading the offense to a scoring drive and getting his team into overtime. I suspect the Steelers’ coaching staff do not feel they will miss a beat with him under center when compared to Rudolph. And this Pittsburgh franchise still thinks they can make the playoffs with them just two games behind the Ravens. Remember, Indianapolis made the playoffs last year despite a 1-4 start. Pittsburgh has one of the most underrated defenses in the league right now who have forced 12 turnovers since Week Two. The Steelers defense has also given up no more than 139 passing yards in two straight weeks. This organization was very high on what their defense would do this season after they drafted Devin Bush in the first round which provided them speed at the linebacker position that they have lacked since the injury to Ryan Shazier. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home. The Steelers are also 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread win. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of October — and they are a decisive 49-24-2 ATS in their last 75 games in October.
FINAL TAKE: Bet against this Steelers franchise as a road underdog at your own peril. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 63 of their last 104 road games when getting the points — and this includes them covering the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games when getting up to 7 points. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (273) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-13-19 |
Falcons -2.5 v. Cardinals |
|
33-34 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (267) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (268). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (1-4) has lost three straight games after their 53-32 loss at Houston last week as a 4-point underdog. Arizona (1-3-1) earned their first victory of the Kyler Murray (and Kliff Kingsbury) era with their 26-23 upset win at Cincinnati last week as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a “gotta have it” game for this Atlanta team. The urgency of the situation compelled head coach Dan Quinn to keep his team out west to prepare for this game. I like the road trip workweek mentality — and it should help this team address some of their problems on defense. The biggest problem for this team is they have been once again hit by the injury bug with the Regression Gods paying them back for their Super Bowl season three years ago where their starting five on the offensive line played every game. The Falcons have bounced back to cover the pint spread in 9 straight games after a loss by at least three touchdowns. Atlanta surrendered 592 yards last week with 166 of those yards being on the ground. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 53 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. And while Houston averaged a whopping 7.49 Yards-Per-Play last week, Atlanta has covered the point spread in 34 of their last 51 road games after a game where they allowed at least 6.5 YPP. While this Falcons team may be permanently damaged with their psyche after blowing that Super Bowl game against the Patriots, Quinn has not forgotten how to coach defense. Not many individuals have served as defensive coordinator for a Super Bowl champion and then later served as the head coach for a second team to reach the Super Bowl. He should have his team prepared for the Texas Tech offense that the Cardinals operate. The offense is still clicking behind Matt Ryan. They gained 373 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. I don’t give Arizona much credit for defeating a Bengals team riddled with injuries and down to their fourth left tackle. Yet they still allowed that offense to generate 370 total yards — and they are just 11-24-1 ATS in their last 36 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Cardinals are 28th in the NFL by allowing 27.6 PPG — and they are 29th in the league by allowing 408.0 total YPG. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they are 4-13-2 ATS in their last 19 games after a straight-up win.
FINAL TAKE: Look for the Falcons’ veteran experience to make the difference in this one. 10* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Atlanta Falcons (267) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-13-19 |
49ers v. Rams -3 |
Top |
20-7 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (266) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (265). Los Angeles (3-2) looks to bounce-back from their 30-29 loss at Seattle as a 1.5-point underdog two Thursdays ago back on October 3rd. San Francisco (4-0) remained one of two undefeated teams this season with their 31-3 win over Cleveland as a 5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles should benefit from the extra time to prepare for this game. Excluding last year’s Super Bowl, head coach Sean McVay has won ten straight games when coaching with extra days to prepare with his offense scoring 37 PPG — and the Rams are 8-1-1 ATS in those ten games. The Rams have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. Los Angeles will be without running back Todd Gurley for this game but they have talent behind in Malcolm Brown who starred at Texas along with their rookie Darrell Henderson who was a juggernaut at Memphis. The Rams managed to rush for only 82 yards against the Seahawks — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards. Now they return home where QB Jared Goff usually plays much better than on the road. Los Angeles is scoring 33.5 PPG at home while averaging 449.0 total YPG. The Rams have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles has to tighten things up on defense after allowing 429 yards in their last game. 262 of those yards were in the air — but the Rams have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Niners have been anointed to the Super Bowl by many after their dominant performance in primetime on Monday. But San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. The 49ers have also failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after playing on Monday Night Football. San Francisco generated 446 yards of offense in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Additionally, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 14 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 34 road games after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. This team was already playing with their left tackle Joe Staley — but their vaunted ground game has taken two more big hits for this game with both right tackle Mike McGlinchey and blocking fullback Kyle Juszczyk both out for this game with knee injuries. This is a team that has benefited from an easy early schedule against four teams that have combined for a 4-15 record after the Buccaneers loss this morning. The Niners are just 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams from the NFC West — and Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC West foes. The Rams have a significant experience edge when it comes to playing in high profile games as of late. They should pull away for a comfortable win. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Rams (266) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-13-19 |
Saints v. Jaguars -2.5 |
|
13-6 |
Loss |
-111 |
1 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (260) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (259). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (2-3) looks to bounce-back from their 34-27 loss at Carolina last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. New Orleans (4-1) has won three straight games after their 31-24 win at home against Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS MINUS THE POINTS: At first glance, it might look easy to take the Saints coming off three straight victories with two of them against quality competition in Dallas and Seattle despite being without Drew Brees under center. Teddy Bridgewater has proven himself very capable as the starting quarterback for this team. Yet after two upset wins against the Cowboys and Seahawks and then grinding out a win against a divisional rival that always plays them tough, this Saints team may be due for an emotional letdown against an unfamiliar AFC opponent. All four of New Orleans wins have been by one scoring possession — so they are living dangerously. This team has given up more points than they have scored this season — and they are being outgained by -15.2 net YPG. The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a game against an NFC South rival. This is also a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on grass. In their two games on the road, they have generated just 244 and 265 yards of offense. Remember, that win in Seattle was fueled by a defensive touchdown and a special teams touchdown that helped them overcome getting outgained by -250 yards! Star running back Alvin Kamara will play in this game despite an ankle injury but he does not appear to be playing at 100%. Jacksonville returns home after playing their last two games on the road — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams who are not winning more than 50% of their games on the road. The Jaguars are very happy with the play of rookie Gardner Minshew. He is only the third quarterback in the Super Bowl era to post a Quarterback Rating over 100 after his first three starts. Minshew has nine touchdown passes to zero interceptions in his career after completing 26 of 44 passes for 374 yards with two TD passes last week — and he added another 42 yards on the ground. The Jaguars generated 507 yards last week against a good Panthers defense while averaging 6.76 Yards-Per-Play after gaining 455 yards at Denver the week before while averaging 6.1 YPP — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. Running back Leonard Fournette vowed to have a big year this season and he has rushed for over 100 yards in his last two games while accumulating 305 yards after contact which is tops in the league. The Jacksonville defense has to play better after allowing 445 yards to the Panthers. Carolina averaged 7.67 YPP in that game — but Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 7.0 YPP in their last game. The good news for this defense is that Jalen Ramsey will be back on the field again after having a heart-to-heart this week with the owner.
FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars are favored in this game because the underlying numbers suggest these teams are much closer to being even — especially with Brees still out. Let’s trust the numbers. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars (260) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (259). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-13-19 |
Seahawks v. Browns +1 |
|
32-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (256) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (255). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (2-3) looks to rebound from their 31-3 loss at San Francisco last Monday night as a 5-point underdog. Seattle (4-1) comes off a 30-29 win over the Los Angeles Rams back on October 3rd two Thursdays ago.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Young but talented teams tend to be inconsistent. I look for Cleveland to bounce-back with one of their better efforts of the season this afternoon. The Browns have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, Cleveland has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Quarterback Baker Mayfield plays better when humbled rather than when overconfident. The Browns have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Look for the Cleveland defense to play better — and they are getting Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams back in their secondary for this game. The Browns have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Cleveland defense is 5th in the NFL by limiting their opponents to converting on just 31.3 of their 3rd downs. And led by Myles Garrett, the Browns are tied for 6th in the league with 16 sacks — and they are 7th in the NFL by allowing only 206.4 passing YPG. This is a tough assignment for a Seahawks team that is without two starters on their offensive line in Duane Brown and D.J. Fluker who are dealing with biceps and hamstring injuries respectively. Don’t be surprised if the Seahawks suffer a letdown traveling east for this early kickoff after they defeated Arizona by a 27-10 score before their big win over the Rams. Seattle has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning their last two games against NFC West foes where they scored at least 24 points in both games. The Seahawks have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning four of their last five games. Seattle held the ball for over 35 minutes of that game while churning out 25 first downs against LA — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a game where they controlled the clock for at least 34 minutes while getting at least 24 first downs. And while Russell Wilson completed 17 of 23 passes for 268 yards in that win, the Seahawks are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Cleveland matches up with Seattle when it comes to overall talent. Look for the Browns to take a page out of the Seahawks playbook by running the ball and controlling the clock to keep Wilson off the field. Cleveland opened as a small favorite and now find themselves bet down to a small underdog in many spots. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but take the points for some insurance) Underdog Special with the Cleveland Browns (256) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (255). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-12-19 |
Florida v. LSU -13 |
|
28-42 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (180) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (179). THE SITUATION: LSU (5-0) remained undefeated this season with their 42-6 win over Utah State as a 27-point favorite last Saturday. Florida (6-0) is also one of the remained unbeaten teams in the nation after they upset Auburn at home by a 24-13 score as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Gators forced four Auburn turnovers last week to help them win that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after forcing at least three turnovers in their last game. But now after playing their last three games at home, this Florida team goes back on the road to play just their second game this season in a hostile environment. This will be a challenge for junior quarterback Kyle Trask who has taken over the starting job after the season-ending injury to the incumber QB in Feleipe Franks. Head coach Dan Mullen would like to support Trask with a good ground game in this road game — but the Gators are averaging just 139.8 rushing YPG this season which is 89th in the nation. Florida has not rushed for more than 138 yards against a Power Five conference opponent this year — and they will be facing a stout LSU defense that is limiting opposing rushers to just 2.64 Yards-Per-Carry. The Tigers are allowing only 19.8 PPG along with just 287.8 total YPG. And while the Gators have held their last three opponents to no more than 269 yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in three straight games. LSU has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points. The Tigers held the Aggies to just 168 total yards last week — and they are both 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after not allowing more than 275 total yards in their last contest. The Tigers’ offense should overwhelm the limited Gators offense. Quarterback Joe Burrow is leading an offense that leads the nation by scoring 54.6 PPG while also leading the nation by converting on 56.9% of their third downs. The Tigers are also second in the FBS by generating 571 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: LSU has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games in SEC play. Look for Florida to experience a big letdown after their upset win last week. 20* CFB Florida-LSU ESPN Special with the LSU Tigers (180) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (179). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-12-19 |
Penn State v. Iowa +3.5 |
|
17-12 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (204) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (203). Iowa (4-1) looks to bounce-back from their 10-3 loss at Michigan last Saturday as a 4-point underdog. Penn State (5-0) remains unbeaten this season with their 35-7 win at home over Purdue last week as a 28.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: The Nittany Lions have risen to the top ten in the national rankings with their undefeated started supported by some nice statistics. But this Penn State has also benefited from a soft early schedule with Pittsburgh probably representing the best team they have faced so far this season. This will be the first ranked opponent that the Nittany Lions have faced this season — and this will be a big challenge for a team that returned only twelve starters from last year’s 9-4 group that lost to Kentucky in the Citrus Bowl by a 27-24 score. Sophomore quarterback Sean Clifford has played well leading the offense — but let’s remember that it was Tommy Stevens that was expected to be the starting quarterback this season until he surprised the program by transferring to Mississippi State in the spring. Clifford is leading a team that has lost twenty-two of their last twenty-four road games against ranked opponents. The Nittany Lions defense has looked very good so far this season after limiting (an injury-riddled) Purdue offense to just 104 total yards. The Boilermakers averaged just 1.86 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after limiting their last opponent to no more than 3.25 YPP. Penn State has also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 29 road games after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. Furthermore, while the Nittany Lions have only allowed 17 combined points over their last three games with those opponents averaging just 209.3 YPG, that is not a good sign for them moving forward. Penn State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 225 YPG over their last three contests. Additionally, the Nittany Lions has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on field turf. Iowa should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last contest. Turnovers played a huge role last week with senior quarterback Nate Stanley throwing three picks and the Hawkeyes forcing only one turnover themselves. But turnovers can be fickle — and Iowa has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last game. The Hawkeyes return to Iowa City where they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a game that finished Under the Total. Iowa is also 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games when playing on field turf. They should once again play outstanding defense — they rank 5th in the nation by allowing only 254.3 total YPG while ranking 4th in the nation by giving up just 8.8 PPG. Furthermore, the Hawkeyes will put pressure on the first-year sophomore quarterback to make plays as they are 11th in the nation by allowing just 85.6 rushing YPG. Those defensive numbers are against better competition than what Penn State has faced with Iowa facing the Wolverines and Iowa State already this season. Stanley should play better at home as well where the three-year starter has thrown 8 touchdown passes with zero interceptions in three wins this year.
FINAL TAKE: Iowa will also have revenge on their mind from a 30-24 loss at Penn State last October 27th. The Hawkeyes lost a narrow 21-19 game in a night game two years ago in the last time they hosted the Nittany Lions as a 12.5-point underdog. 10* CFB Penn State-Iowa ABC-TV Special with the Iowa Hawkeyes (204) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (203). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-12-19 |
USC v. Notre Dame -10 |
Top |
27-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (200) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (199). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (4-1) enters this rivalry game coming off a 52-0 shutout win at home against Bowling Green last Saturday as a 45.5-point favorite. USC (3-2) returns to action after their bye week that came after a 28-14 loss at Washington as a 12.5-point underdog two Saturdays ago.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH MINUS THE POINTS: The Trojans are an imploding program in what appears to be a lame-duck final season for fifth-year head coach Clay Helton. Under his watch, USC has now lost seven of their last eleven games. The Trojans have also won just two of their last fifteen games as an underdog under Helton — so there is little chance that USC will be in a serious position to win this game tonight. The Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games as the underdog. And while the USC defense played well two weeks ago in their two-touchdown loss to the Huskies with the Total set in the 59 range, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The good news for this team is they get their freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis back after he cleared the concussion protocol. The bad news is that he is only the starter because sophomore J.T. Daniels suffered a season-ending knee injury — and the team needs him to play a veteran in a very challenging environment on the road in South Bend for this nationally televised night game. USC is just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games on the road — and they are just 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Trojans have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games outside Pac-12 play. And in their last 7 games in the month of October, USC has failed to cover the point spread 5 times. Notre Dame has won sixteen of their last eighteen games under head coach Brian Kelly with those two losses being on the road after Georgia last month and on a neutral field in the College Football Semifinals against Clemson. They should build off the momentum of their big win last week as they are covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least four touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. The Irish generated 573 yards of offense in that win — and not only are they 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring at least 40 points but they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after generating at least 475 yards of offense in their last game. They have a big edge under center with senior quarterback Ian Book who is leading an offense that is scoring 41.0 PPG (51.0 PPG at home) — and they will probably get their top rusher in Jafar Armstrong back for this game after he has been out since Game One with a groin injury. Notre Dame has covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Irish also boast a strong defense that has registered ten sacks over the last two weeks while allowing only 14.8 PPG this season.
FINAL TAKE: It will be cold in South Bend tonight with winds in the 10 to 20 MPH range. Don’t be surprised if turnovers play a big role to help the Irish — they rank third in the nation with thirteen takeaways while leading the nation with their +10 net turnover differential. USC has a net -7 turnover margin this season — and they have not won the turnover battle in a game since the opening week of the 2018 season against UNLV which is the longest streak in the nation. 25* CFB Saturday NBC-TV Game of the Year with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (200) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (199). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-12-19 |
Ball State v. Eastern Michigan -1 |
Top |
29-23 |
Loss |
-112 |
15 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Eastern Michigan Eagles (142) minus the point(s) versus the Ball State Cardinals (141). THE SITUATION: Eastern Michigan (3-2) looks to bounce-back from their 42-16 upset loss at Central Michigan last Saturday as a 4-point favorite. Ball State (2-3) looks to build off their 27-20 upset win at Northern Illinois last Saturday as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Eastern Michigan should respond with a strong effort after last week’s disappointing performance. The Eagles have rebounded to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after a loss to a Mid-American Conference opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss to a conference foe. Furthermore, Eastern Michigan has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss while covering the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 28 of their last 39 games after a blowout loss by at least 20 points. This team has become a physical and nasty team under head coach Chris Creighton in his sixth season with the program while also embodying his mental toughness. Creighton has resurrected this program that had only won five combined games in his three seasons before going 19-19 since the start of the 2017 season. The Eagles could have had an even better record over that span as they were just 6-11 in games decided by one scoring possession entering the fall. Eastern Michigan lost five of their six games by 7 points or less last year. Additionally, the analytics for this team are skewed right now with four of their first five games being on the road. The Eagles will be playing just their second game at home this season where they have a nice home-field advantage when playing at the “Factory.” Eastern Michigan is led by a dynamic senior dual-threat quarterback in Mike Glass III who would have likely led this team to a better record last year if not for an injury that limited him to just eight games. Glass is completing 66.8% of his passes this season with 13 touchdown passes and just 5 interceptions while leading the Eagles to average 265 passing YPG. Glass led this team to an upset win at Illinois. Eastern Michigan has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in there 56.5 to 63 point range. Ball State may be due for a letdown after their upset win on the road against the Huskies last week as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. The Cardinals eked out that game despite being outgained by Northern Illinois by -120 net yards after managing to generate a mere 269 yards of offense. That is not a good sign for them this week as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after being outgained by at least 125 net yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. This team stays on the road for their third straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games as an underdog. Ball State has scored only 7 (at NC State) and 3 points in the first half of these last two games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to score more than a touchdown in the first half of their last two games. And in their last 6 games in expected close contests where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread 5 times.
FINAL TAKE: Eastern Michigan should be confident in this game after crushing the Cardinals at Ball State by a 42-20 score last season. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Ball State. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Month with the Eastern Michigan Eagles (142) minus the point(s) versus the Ball State Cardinals (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-12-19 |
Memphis v. Temple +4.5 |
|
28-30 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (128) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (127). THE SITUATION: Temple (4-1) has won two straight games after their 27-17 win at East Carolina back on October 3rd as a -12.5-point favorite. Memphis (5-0) remained unbeaten last Saturday with their 55-33 win at UL-Monroe as a 16-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: Temple has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss — and this team has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with extra days of rest after a Thursday night game. Their lone loss this season was on the road at Buffalo where they were upset by a 38-22 score. Three interceptions played a large role in giving up all those points to the Bulls — but they have not allowed more than 17 points in any of their other four games this season. Temple is allowing only 17.2 PPG along with just 292.4 total YPG — and those numbers plummet to just 10.3 PPG along with just 285.3 total YPG when playing at home this year. Seven starters returned on defense from last year with this group allowing opposing rushers to average just 3.2 Yards-Per-Carry while opposing quarterbacks are completing only 45.9% of their passes while averaging just 167 passing YPG. Now this team returns back home for Homecoming Week where they are 3-0 while outscoring their guests by +23.0 PPG due to their offense that is scoring 33.3 PPG and averaging 481.3 total YPG. The Owls have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games as a dog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Temple gained 490 yards last week on the road against the Pirates — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Owls are also 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games in the month of October. Memphis have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after a double-digit win on the road. The Tigers have also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after scoring at least 50 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after a game where at least 80 combined points were scored. Memphis defeating the Warhawks last week despite being outgained by -40 net yards due to their props defense allowing 575 total yards. After an opening week 15-10 win against Ole Miss, the Tigers have scored at least 35 points in each of their next four games — but they failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 31 points in four straight games. Now this team plays their second straight game on the road — as well as their third game in their last four contests away from home e— and they are just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games played on grass.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 54 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Look for the Tigers to be in a barn-burner against this confident Owls team at home who have the best defense that they have faced all season. 20* CFB Memphis-Temple ESPN2 Special with the Temple Owls (128) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (127). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-11-19 |
Virginia v. Miami-FL -2 |
|
9-17 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (110) minus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (109). THE SITUATION: Miami (FL) (2-3) looks to rebound from their 42-35 loss at home to Virginia Tech last Saturday as a 14-point favorite. Virginia (4-1) suffered their first loss of the season two weeks ago with their 35-20 loss at Notre Dame as a 10.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES MINUS THE POINTS: A -5 net turnover margin did Miami in last week against the Hokies. The Hurricanes trailed by a 28-0 score at one point of that game in the first half but did almost rally to steal that game. They dominated Virginia Tech by outgaining them by a 563 to 337 yardage margin. They averaged 7.22 Yards-Per-Play in that game with sophomore quarterback N’Kosi Perry taking over for an injured freshman quarterback Jarren Williams. Perry will get the start in this game with Williams dealing with a bum shoulder — but Williams also threw three first-half interceptions to help place the Hurricanes in the hole from which they could not pull themselves out. Perry started six times last season — so he has experience. Miami should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 6.75 Yards-Per-Play. The Hurricanes have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after suffering a net turnover of -5 or worse in their last game. Expectations were high for this team entering the season with first-year head coach Matt Diaz with twelve starters back from last year’s team that suffered five net upsets last year. All three of Miami’s losses this year have been by one scoring possession to good football teams in Florida, North Carolina, and then the Hokies last week. They are outscoring their opponents by +10.8 net PPG while outgaining them by +166.4 net YPG. The Hurricanes have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games when favored by no more than 3 points. Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games after winning four of their last five games. The rushing numbers are the biggest concerns for the Cavaliers coming out of that game with the Irish as they managed only 4 net rushing yards while being outgained on the ground by Notre Dame by -153 net yards. Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after being outrushed by at least 125 yards. The Cavaliers stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Six starters returned for this team on offense including senior quarterback Bryce Perkins — but explosiveness was an issue for this offense last year which remains a question going into the season. That offense ranked 81st in the FBS by averaging just 384.8 total YPG — but this year’s unit has seen that number decline to just 363.6 total YPG. Furthermore, Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a Friday night.
FINAL TAKE: Miami will also have revenge on their minds after being upset on the road at Virginia last year despite being a 7-point favorite by a 16-13 score. It has been a disappointing start for the Hurricanes this season — but a victory tonight would be their biggest win of the year. 10* CFB Virginia-Miami (FL) ESPN Special with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (110) minus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-10-19 |
Giants +17.5 v. Patriots |
|
14-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Giants (103) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (104). THE SITUATION: New York (2-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 28-10 loss at home to Minnesota as a 5.5-point underdog. New England (5-0) returns home after playing their last two games on the road after their 33-7 win at Washington as a 15.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York should respond with a strong effort — they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. Admittedly, the Giants are a M*A*S*H unit right now. The Giants were already without star running back Sequon Barkley with his knee injury but the injuries began to mount in that game with the carry-over being significant for this game being played on a short week. Barkley’s backup, Wayne Gallman, is out tonight having not cleared the concussion protocol leaving the rushing duties to Jon Hillman who came off the practice squad a few weeks ago. Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones is also without his top two receiving threats in wide receiver Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram as they deal with a concussion and MCL injuries respectively. But at least this team got wide receiver, Golden Tate, back last week after he served his four-game suspension. And this is a team playing with optimism given the hope that rookie quarterback Daniel Jones provides for the future. The Giants had the best statistical offense in the preseason with Jones getting plenty of experience playing with the backup weapons so there will be familiarity for this offense when it takes the field tonight. New York managed only 211 total yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to gain at least 250 total yards in their last contest. The Giants were outrushed by 147 net yards to the Vikings last week — but they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after being outrushed by at least 75 yards in their last game. Additionally, New York has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Patriots will be leaning on their defense for this game given the injuries this team is experiencing on offense. Wide receiver Phillip Dorsett is out with a hamstring injury while wide receivers Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman are both listed as questionable with a knee and chest injury. The targets for Tom Brady in the passing game were already a big question mark for this team as they transition away from the Rob Gronkowski era. The lack of an elite weapon in the passing game is why the team took a chance on Antonio Brown before he proved to be too much trouble for what he offered. It was the Brown signing that compelled the Patriots to trade away wide receiver Demaryius Thomas early in the season when it looked like they had too many bodies at that position. Now this team could use a reliable healthy body at that position with their first-round draft choice, N’Keal Harry, on Injured Reserve with a knee injury. New England is scoring 31.0 PPG this season — but that includes their defense scoring four times already this year with another touchdown scored by their special teams via a blocked punt. Take away those five defensive/special team scores and the Patriots scoring average drops by a full touchdown to a 24.0 PPG clip — and those 17 or so points they are laying tonight begins to look pretty thin. The defending Super Bowl champions have also benefited from an easy early schedule. Take away their 16-10 victory over Buffalo where they were outgained by a 375-224 margin and out-first downed by a 23 to 11 gap, the remaining four teams on the New England schedule consisting of Pittsburgh, Miami, the Jets, and the Skins are a combined 1-17. Throw in some 20 MPH winds with light rain and the Patriots content with an easy win where the team remains healthy — and I will hold my nose while investing in the value of all those points with the dog.
FINAL TAKE: The Giants have covered the point spread in 5 straight meetings with the Patriots — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Foxboro to face New England. 10* NFL NY Giants-New England Fox-TV Special with the New York Giants (103) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-09-19 |
Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette -1.5 |
|
17-7 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (102) minus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (101). THE SITUATION: Louisiana (4-1) has won four straight games after their 37-24 win at Georgia Southern as a 3-point favorite back on September 28th. Appalachian State (4-0) remains undefeated this season with their 56-37 victory over Coastal Carolina as a 14.5-point favorite on September 28th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Louisiana should build off the momentum of their big win on the road as they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. This is a team on the rise in head coach Billy Napier’s second season running the program after previously serving as an assistant to both Nick Saban and Dabo Sweeney. After this program averaged just 5.3 incoming freshmen rated as a 3-star or better from 2016-18, Napier nabbed twenty-two 3-star or better recruits for his 2019 class. Fifteen starters returned from last year’s group that lost to the Mountaineers in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. This year’s team started the year with a strong showing in a neutral field 10-point loss to Mississippi State. The Ragin’ Cajuns have since won their last four games including last week’s win against an Eagles team that won ten games last year as well as a 45-25 win at an Ohio team that was the preseason pick to win the Mid-American Conference. Louisiana is averaging 314.5 rushing YPG which leads the nation. The Ragin’ Cajuns are averaging 44.4 PPG while generating 540.2 total YPG. Louisiana has scored 159 combined points over their last three games while averaging 559 total YPG in those contests. The Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 31 points in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 20 games after averaging at least 475 YPG in their last there games. And while Louisiana has generated at least 275 rushing yards in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in two straight contests. But the difference in this team this season is their significant improvement on the other side of the line of scrimmage. After allowing 34.2 PPG along with 435.9 total YPG last season, seven returning starters under second-year defensive coordinator Ron Roberts is now allowing only 21.4 PPG along with just 345.2 total YPG against a challenging schedule so far this season. Louisiana also leads the Sun Belt Conference in Pass Efficiency defense. Now after playing their last two games on the road, the Ragin’ Cajuns return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Louisiana has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Appalachian State may be due for a letdown after covering the point spread in three of their first four games. The Mountaineers failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Appalachian State has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning at least four straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in three of these last four games. The Mountaineers remain a powerful offensive team but they have taken a step or two back on defense. Appalachian State was 4th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 15.5 PPG but they lost five starters from that group including very good players on their defensive line and their two starting cornerbacks. The Mountaineers are allowing 29.0 PPG this season with their opponents averaging 420.2 total YPG which is more than 130 YPG more than last year. Not only did Coastal Carolina put up 39 points against them but Charlotte scored 41 points against them earlier this season. The biggest decline has been with their run defense as they are allowing opposing rushers to average 4.3 Yards-Per-Carry which is 0.8 YPC higher than last year — and this inferior run defense will play right into the hands of the Louisiana ground game. Additionally, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of October.
FINAL TAKE: Louisiana has certainly had this date circled on their calendar after losing twice to the Mountaineers last season. The Ragin’ Cajuns did win the first down battle in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game by a 16-13 margin in that 30-19 loss. Louisiana has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* CFB Appalachian State-Louisiana ESPN2 Special with the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (102) minus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-07-19 |
Browns +5 v. 49ers |
|
3-31 |
Loss |
-107 |
4 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (477) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (478). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (2-2) looks to build off their 40-25 victory in Baltimore against the Ravens last Sunday night. San Francisco (3-0) takes the field again after their 24-20 victory over Pittsburgh as a 6-point favorite back on September 22nd.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: San Francisco generated 436 yards of offense against the Steelers — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The 49ers have also failed to covet the point spread in 6 straight games after their bye week. This team entered the regular season with significant concerns about the health of quarterback Jimmy Garappolo with his returning from knee surgery. Now this team has been overhyped with the two weeks of remaining one of the two remaining undefeated in the league. Yet the Niners have benefited from an easy schedule that has featured Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, and Mason Rudolph. San Francisco has also won their first three games despite committing eight turnovers. The 49ers turned the ball over five times in their win against the Steelers while winning that game despite a -3 net turnover margin. The 49ers have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. San Francisco stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games when favored by no more than 7 points. San Francisco has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of October. Cleveland got back to their ground game going last week in their win on the road against the Ravens. They rushed for 193 yards in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Browns generated 528 yards of offense in that game while averaging 6.5 Yards-Per-Play — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 6.5 YPP in their last game. Cleveland stays on the road this week where they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Browns are still dealing with injuries in their defensive backfield with Denzel Ward and Phillip Gaines still out with injuries — but this team has veterans that played well against the Ravens last week in their absence. San Francisco is also dealing with some significant injuries with left tackle Joe Staley and defensive back Ahkello Witherspoon both out for this game. 10* NFL Cleveland-San Francisco ESPN Special with the Cleveland Browns (477) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-19 |
Colts +12 v. Chiefs |
|
19-13 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (2-2) looks to rebound from their 31-24 upset loss at home to Oakland as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (4-0) remained undefeated last week with their 34-30 win at Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis should bounce-back with a strong effort in this game — they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 38 of their last 56 games after a straight-up loss. And while they have played two straight games where at least 51 combined points were scored, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing at least two straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. Jacoby Brissett has proven himself as a legitimate starting quarterback with over 900 passing yards in his first four starts with 10 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. It looks like Brissett will have the benefit of his wider receiver T.Y. Hilton on the field for this game with the reports indicating he will play despite his quad injury. He should be able to keep his team close in this game (as a double-digit underdog) against this Kansas City defense that is allowing 259 passing YPG this year. The Chiefs have been even worse with their run defense as opposing rushers are averaging 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry which is translating into 150 rushing YPG. The Colts have finally developed a strong offensive line — and while that group cannot salvage Andrew Luck’s career, they will help the Indy offense in the ground game and in giving Brissett time to pick apart the Kansas City defense. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. The Colts are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams with a winning record at home. Kansas City was actually outgained by the Lions last week by a 447 to 438 yardage mark — their controversial 100-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown ended up playing a critical role in that win. The Chiefs surrendered 447 yards to the Detroit offense — and they have allowed their last three opponents to average 402 total YPG. Kansas City remains undefeated because of their dynamic offense as they have averaged 474.0 total YPG along with 468.3 total YPG over their last three contests. But the Chiefs have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games after averaging at least 450 YPG in their last three games. Furthermore, Kansas City has scored 28 points in all four of their games this season — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after scoring at least 25 points in four straight contests.
FINAL TAKE: Don’t underestimate what this game means to Colts’ head coach Frank Reich after his team lost in Kansas City last January 12th in the AFC Divisional Playoffs with their 31-13 loss. Yet Indianapolis has still covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 meetings with the Chiefs — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played in Arrowhead Stadium. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Kansas City NBC-TV Special with the Indianapolis Colts (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-19 |
Ravens -3 v. Steelers |
|
26-23 |
Push |
0 |
3 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (451) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (452). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-2) looks to bounce-back from their 40-25 upset loss at home to Cleveland last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (1-3) looks to build off their 27-3 victory at home over Cincinnati on Monday as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: The Steelers finally earned their first win of the season on Monday — but I expect them to suffer a letdown having to play on a short week. Pittsburgh is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games played after Monday Night Football. And while the Steelers held the listless Bengals to just 175 yards of offense, they are then 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after not allowing more than 250 total yards in their last game. At first glance, it looked like quarterback Mason Rudolph had a great game as he completed 24 of 28 passes for 229 yards — but a handful of those completions were forward lateral jet sweep routes that are just glorified run plays. Head coach Mike Tomlin admitted that the offense reached into their bag of gimmicks to provide some spice to their offense. Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh and his staff have now had a week of practice to deal with their wildcat look with Jaylen Samuels under center along with the other tricks they employed against the Bengals. Overall, Pittsburgh passed of 260 yards in that game — but they are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. While the demise of the Steelers was overblown going into Monday with their opponents currently owning a combined 11-1 record, this team still has some significant problems that help account for their 0-3 start. The Pittsburgh offensive line has struggled which has hurt James Connor’s ability to get the ground game going. The lack of a proven true number one wide receiver has also put pressure on the rushing attack — and there has yet to emerge a reliable second wide receiver to complement JuJu Smith-Shuster. And, of course, Rudolph is not nearly the quarterback that the injured Ben Roethlisberger is. Furthermore, the Pittsburgh pass defense had allowed at least 268 passing yards in their three losses before getting to play the Bengals without their top wideout A.J. Green. Baltimore will be feisty to earn a win after dropping their last two games to Kansas City and the Browns last week. The Ravens have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an AFC North rival. And while Cleveland outgained them by 133 net yards in that game, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games on the road after being outgained by at least 100 net yards. Baltimore needs to play better on defense after allowing 528 and 503 yards of offense in their last two games. The Ravens should tighten up on that side of the field as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at last 450 yards in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after allowing at least 375 yards in two straight contests. Both of their last two games finished Over the Total — but Baltimore has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing at least two straight Overs. The Ravens have been a good team on the road under Harbaugh — they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road while also covering the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Ravens usually bring their “A-Game” when facing the Steelers. Baltimore is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against Pittsburgh — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing the Steelers on their Heinz Field. 25* NFL AFC North Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (451) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-19 |
Bills +3 v. Titans |
|
14-7 |
Win
|
109 |
2 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (469) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (470). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (3-1) looks to bounce-back from their 16-10 loss at home to New England last week as a 7-point underdog. Tennessee (2-2) looks to build off their 24-10 upset win on the road in Atlanta as a 3.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: The Titans may be due for a letdown after that upset victory last week. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after an upset victory on the road by at least two touchdowns as an underdog. Tennessee got their offense going by generating 415 yards of offense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. While this offense will get a shot in the arm with the return of left tackle Taylor Lewan after he served his four-game PED suspension, this remains a group that is averaging just 321.5 total YPG. Marcus Mariota is just 30-30 in his sixty career starts — and he has thrown 29 interceptions in those 30 losses which does not speak well when facing elite defenses. The Bills have one of the best secondaries in the business. Tennessee is also due for a visit from the Regression Gods as they have fumbled eight times this season but has only turned the ball over once in those mishaps. The Titans hang their hats on their defense that ranks fourth in the league by allowing just 15.5 PPG. But Tennessee did allow 422 total yards to the Falcons last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Titans return home for just their second game all season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. Tennessee is also just 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Buffalo is 2-0 on the road this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. The Bills played well against the Patriots last week as they outgained them by +151 net yards while winning the first down battle by a 23 to 11 margin. Surrendering a blocked punt for a touchdown played a role as well as having their quarterback get knocked out with a head injury. The Bills frustrated Tom Brady all day as he completed just 18 of 39 passes for only 150 yards. Buffalo is fifth in the league by allowing 15.7 PPG — and they rank second in the NFL by giving up just 286.7 total YPG. Head coach Sean McDermott has ten starters back from last year’s defense that led the league in total defense. McDermott should have his team ready to play as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss at home where they covered the point spread as the underdog — and the Bills have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after failing to score more than 14 points. The good news for Buffalo is that Josh Allen has been cleared from the concussion protocol to be able to play in this game. The Bills have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Neither of these teams has allowed more than 20 points — and, considering that the last three meetings between these two teams have been decided by just one point, a very close game is likely. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Buffalo Bills (469) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-05-19 |
Baylor v. Kansas State -1.5 |
|
31-12 |
Loss |
-109 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas State Wildcats (328) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (327). THE SITUATION: Kansas State (3-1) looks to rebound from their first loss of the season last week at Oklahoma State as a 4-point underdog. Baylor (4-0) comes off a 23-21 upset victory at home against Iowa State last Saturday where they were 2.5-point underdogs.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas State has rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after a point spread loss. First-year head coach Chris Klieman hopes the resiliency of this program under the stewardship of their longtime head coach Bill Snyder will continue under his command. He inherited fourteen starters from last year’s final Snyder team led by junior quarterback Skylar Thompson. The Wildcats offense struggled last week by generating only 244 yards on the road against the Cowboys — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 20 points. Now Kansas State returns home to Manhattan where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Baylor may be due for an emotional letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. And while they did not commit a turnover last week, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Junior quarterback Charlie Brewer did pass for 307 yards in that win — but the Bears are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. And in their last 6 games on the road with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range, Baylor has failed to cover the point spread 5 times.
FINAL TAKE: The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Manhattan to face Kansas State. The Wildcats need this win to stay alive in the race to make the Big 12 Championship Game. Expect a spirited effort from Klieman’s team. 10* CFB Baylor-Kansas State ESPN2 Special with the Kansas State Wildcats (328) minus the points versus the Baylor Bears (327). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-05-19 |
TCU v. Iowa State -3 |
|
24-49 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (374) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (373). THE SITUATION: TCU (2-2) looks to bounce-back from their 23-21 loss at Baylor as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. TCU (3-1) looks to build off their 51-14 win over Kansas last week as a 14.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa State entered this season with high expectations as they returned sixteen starters led by their sophomore quarterback Brock Purdy who finished 8-5. The Cyclones scored 30.9 PPG in their last nine games after Purdy took over as the starting quarterback. This is a very well-coached team under fourth-year head coach Matt Campbell. But after a narrow 18-17 loss at home to in-state rival, Iowa, followed by their upset loss at Baylor last week, this is a team desperate for a high profile victory. Iowa State is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after losing two of their last three contests. Now this team returns home where they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Cyclones are also 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games played in the month of October which includes seven straight point spread covers under Campbell’s leadership. TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of October. The Horned Frogs have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a point spread victory. TCU had three quarterbacks combine for 306 passing yards in their win over the Jayhawks — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. This looks to be a bounce-back year for head coach Gary Patterson in his nineteen years with the program after an injury-ravaged season left the Horned Frogs with a 7-6 record. Twelve starters returned from that group that did benefit from the experience after all those injuries. Patterson is using a true freshman as his starting quarterback in Max Duggan — but this is a tough assignment in playing just his second game in a hostile environment. Duggan will be playing an Iowa State defense that has allowed only five touchdowns in the twelve opponent Rez Zone trips this season. Duggan will be supported by a stout defense that ranks 4th in the nation by allowing only 246 total YPG. But TCU has only forced one turnover over their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not forcing more than one turnover in two straight games. The Horned Frogs have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing no more than 20 points in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: TCU’s lone loss this season was a 7-point favorite at home against SMU. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with the Cyclones. With Iowa State desperate for a win and with the more experienced quarterback, look for them to secure the victory. UPDATE: Thunderstorms have delayed the start of this game for two hours to 2 PM ET. The weather report indicates the rain should slow down as the afternoon moves on. I think inclement weather helps the more experienced quarterback in Purdy even if the rain is heavier than expected. 10* CFB TCU-Iowa State ESP2 Special with the Iowa State Cyclones (374) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (373). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-04-19 |
New Mexico v. San Jose State -6 |
|
21-32 |
Win
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100 |
1 h 30 m |
Show
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At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Jose State Spartans (310) minus the points versus the New Mexico Lobos (309). THE SITUATION: San Jose State (2-2) looks to bounce-back from a 41-24 loss at Air Force last Friday night as a 19.5-point underdog. New Mexico (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 17-10 loss at Liberty last Saturday as a 7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS THE POINTS: This Lobos team is a mess in the eighth season under head coach Bob Davie. It is a minor miracle that the former Notre Dame head coach has survived this long in Albuquerque after being suspended by the school for the unethical treatment of some of his players. Davie has also head health issues this season. This is a program that has suffered two straight 3-9 campaigns. They lost their last six games last year by an average of -25.6 PPG while being outgained by -276 YPG. Despite covering the point spread against Liberty (another team with an ailing head coach), the Lobos were outgained by -104 net yards. New Mexico has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. The Lobos has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last contest. Now this team stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in expected high scoring affairs with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. The Lobos rank 129th in the FBS by allowing 526 YPG — and they are allowing 380 passing YPG with thirteen touchdown passes allowed and just one interception. Fifth-year senior quarterback Josh Love should have success passing the football against this defense — he is leading a Spartans offense that is averaging 284.8 passing YPG. We had a big play on Air Force last week and I left that game impressed with the improvement of this San Jose State team in the third year under head coach Brent Brennan. The game was closer than the final score — and things could have gotten very interesting if the Spartans had converted at least one of their four failed fourth-down attempts. Brennan has this team playing with energy and confidence. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home for a very winnable game. They are doing a good job of protecting the football as they have committed only one turnover in each of their first three games before not giving the ball to Air Force last week. San Jose State has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. The Spartans have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against Mountain West Conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: San Jose State has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 37 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Friday Late Show Bailout with the San Jose State Spartans (310) minus the points versus the New Mexico Lobos (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-04-19 |
Central Florida v. Cincinnati +4 |
|
24-27 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 52 m |
Show
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At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (308) minus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (307). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (3-1) has won two straight games after their 52-14 win at Marshall as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. Central Florida (4-1) looks to build off their 56-21 win at UConn as a big 42-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a victory by at least four touchdowns on the road in their last contest. The Bearcats raced out to a 28-0 halftime lead in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after taking a lead of at least 24 points at halftime of their last game. Head coach Luke Fickell feels very good about his team in his third year with the program after having fourteen starters return from last year’s team. His team’s lone loss this season was at Ohio State where they were just physically outmatched. But they get to host this big game where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games contests. They have also only allowed 27 combined points over their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight contests. They are getting good play from their sophomore quarterback Desmond Ridder who has completed 64.3% of his passes for 815 yards with eight touchdown passes. He should be able to keep up with the Knights’ true freshman quarterback in Dillon Gabriel who has thrown for 1336 passing yards this season. But his two interceptions this season were both on the road in the Knights’ 35-34 upset loss at Pittsburgh where they were laying 10 points. Gabriel will be facing a good Bearcats’ pass defense that is allowing only 167.0 passing YPG and no touchdown passes in their last two games. Gabriel completed 11 of 16 passes last week for 281 yards in that easy win over the Huskies — but UCF has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The offensive line is an issue for this team that returned thirteen starters from last year’s group that finished 12-1 in head coach Josh Heupel’s first year with the program. After allowing only 19 sacks last season with junior QB McKenzie Milton under center for a vast majority of their games, the Knights have allowed nine sacks already this season with a freshman taking the snaps. Milton is out the year after suffering a knee injury in last year’s final regular-season game. Now this team travels away from Orlando — and they are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games played on field turf. And in their last 12 road games laying 3.5 to 7 points, UCF has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these contests.
FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati played their worst game of the season last year in a 38-13 loss at UCF last November 11th as a 6.5-point underdog. This is the game that Fickell has had circled on his team’s calendar. Don’t be surprised if they pull the upset — but take the points for some valuable insurance in what should be a close game. 10* CFB UCF-Cincinnati ESPN Special with the Cincinnati Bearcats (308) minus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-03-19 |
Rams v. Seahawks |
|
29-30 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 50 m |
Show
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At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (302) minus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (301). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-1) looks to bounce-back from their 55-40 loss to Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 9-point favorite. Seattle (3-1) comes off a 27-10 win at Arizona on Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINT(S): Seattle bounced-back from their loss at home to New Orleans by getting back to their ground game on the road in Arizona. After quarterback Russell Wilson threw 50 passes against the Saints in their 76 offensive plays from scrimmage, head coach Pete Carroll got his team back to almost a 50-50 run/pass ratio with 27 rushing attempts and 28 pass attempts for Wilson. Seattle actually outgained the Saints by a whopping 515 to 265 yardage differential in that game but surrendering a special team's touchdown and a defensive touchdown helped New Orleans seize and maintain the lead in that game. Carroll credits his team's courage to commit to the run last season as the reason why they rallied from an 0-2 start to make the playoffs. While it may be boring, running plays up the middle lull the strong safety into the box which makes him a step behind in providing double coverage in the deep shots they then want Wilson to take. Now the Seahawks return home where they will be very motivated to play better at home this week after their loss to the Saints — and they will also be looking to avenge getting swept by this Rams team last season. In fact, Los Angeles has won their last two visits to Seattle as well as three of their last four games there — so this is a critical game on the Seahawks calendar. Seattle has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games against fellow teams from the NFC. The Seahawks have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the month of October. And Seattle has been outstanding when playing on Thursday nights on the Carroll regime as they are 7-0-2 ATS in their last 9 games played for Thursday Night Football. Los Angeles has struggled in these contests as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 appearances on Thursday Night Football. The Rams are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Los Angeles is struggling to find themselves on offense after Todd Gurley ran the ball only five times last week despite head coach Sean McVay proclaiming he wanted to get his running back 25 touches. Gurley did not even get his first touch in that game until their fourth possession in the eighteenth offensive play of the game. In fact, Gurley has rushed the ball only 19 times in the first half in the first four games of the season with that mark rising to 30 combined carries in the second half so far this year (with a nice 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry mark). Jared Goff completed 45 of 68 passes in that game for 517 yards — but the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game where they generated at least 350 yards. They are also just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. The failure to establish Gurley as a viable option has ruined the team’s play-action passing attack from which Goff thrived last season. He has a low 60 Passer Rating on play-action passes this season because defenses are not taking the bait on the potential handoff to the running back. Goff has also not been nearly as effective in the passing game on the road. Los Angeles is averaging 298 passing YPG this season with Goff completing 64.2% of his passes while averaging 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt — but those marks drop to just 219 passing YPG into their two road games this season with Goff completing just 61.7% of his passes while averaging just 5.7 YPA. Additionally, the concerns of this Rams offense has much to do with their reconfigured offensive line after they let two veterans in Robert Safford and John Sullivan go in the offseason to make room for two of their 2018 draft choices in Joseph Noteboom and Brian Allen. This line has taken a few steps back this season with Pro Football Focus rating them as the lowest-graded unit in the league this season. All the passing from Goff also leads to turnovers — he had three interceptions against the Buccaneers after throwing two interceptions the previous week at Cleveland. Goff has six interceptions on the season which has played a direct role in the Rams’ having a -2 and -3 net turnover margin over their last two games. Los Angeles has then failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 31 games after having a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: While the Rams have won six of the last eight meetings between these two teams straight-up, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Seahawks — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 trips to Seattle to face this team. 10* NFL LA Rams-Seattle Fox-TV Special with the Seattle Seahawks (302) minus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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10-03-19 |
Temple -11.5 v. East Carolina |
Top |
27-17 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 55 m |
Show
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At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (305) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (306). THE SITUATION: Temple (3-1) looks to build off their 24-2 victory over Georgia Tech last Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite. East Carolina (3-2) has won three of their last four games after they upset Old Dominion on the road on Saturday by a 24-21 score as a 3-point dog.
REASONS TO TAKE TEMPLE MINUS THE POINTS: First-year head coach Mike Houston deserved credit for already matching East Carolina’s win total from last season. But two of the Pirates’ wins so far this season were against FCS opponents in Gardner Webb and William & Mary. The Monarchs are not a very good team this year either — and it is likely that their 32-point loss to Navy along with their 28-point loss to NC State is more indicative of where this team is at after winning only six games in their previous two seasons. This football program made a mistake in letting Ruffin McNeil go after six seasons back in 2016 after a disappointing 5-7 record in a year where they outgained their American Athletic Conference opponents by +26.5 net YPG while suffering three net close losses decided by one scoring possession. The subsequent Scottie Montgomery era was a failure with three straight 3-9 seasons. Houston inherited fourteen starters but the talent level of this roster needs to be upgraded to hang with the better teams in the conference. East Carolina is just 9-31-1 ATS in their last 41 games against American Athletic Conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 53 games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, this Pirates team is due for a letdown after their upset win last week as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. They return home for this contest where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Temple should build off the momentum of their victory last week as they have over the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a double-digit victory. Their lone loss was at Buffalo this year — but they have still covered the point spread in 43 of their last 63 games on the road which includes them covering the point spread in six of their last eight road games against teams with a winning record at home. First-year head coach Rod Carey inherited fourteen starters from last year’s team that finished 8-5 with a loss in the Independence Bowl under an interim head coach to Duke. The Owls are outscoring their opponents by +13.3 PPG while also outgaining these foes by +149.5 net YPG due. Temple is allowing only 17.2 PPG while holding their opponents to just 283.7 total YPG. They have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games against conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The Owls should overwhelm the Pirates even as a double-digit favorite on the road. Temple has covered the point spread in their last 6 meetings with East Carolina — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a Thursday night. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Month with the Temple Owls (305) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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