Football Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
09-23-17 | Arkansas +3 v. Texas A&M | 43-50 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 12 m | Show | |
At 12:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Arkansas Razorbacks (395) plus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (394). Arkansas (1-1) comes off a bye week with plenty to prove after their 28-7 loss to TCU back on September 9th as a 3-point underdog. The Razorbacks have then bounced back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home. Furthermore, Arkansas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. And in their last 4 games coming off a bye week under head coach Brett Bielema, they have covered the point spread all 4 times. This team will also be playing with revenge on their minds after suffering a 45-24 upset loss to the Aggies last September as a 7-point favorite. |
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09-22-17 | Utah v. Arizona +4 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
At 10:30 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the Arizona Wildcats (308) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (307). Arizona (2-1) enters this game with a bit of momentum after rebounding from their loss at home to Houston by crushing UTEP on the road last Friday night by a 63-16 score. Now the Wildcats return home in a critical game for Rich Rodriguez and this Arizona program. Many bettors will be shying away from this Wildcats team that was last in the nation by being outscored by -10 PPG against the point spread last season. Last year’s 3-9 season has put Rodriguez on the proverbial hot seat this year. But remember that under Rodriguez, Arizona had secured wins over Top-Ten teams in four straight seasons before last year. While this undefeated Utes team does not quite find themselves at those lofty heights (although they are ranked in the Top-25), this is a game that the Wildcats absolutely need to win help reverse the negative slide this team has been in since going 10-4 in 2014. Fourteen starters returned this season led by junior quarterback Brian Dawkins. Arizona did outgain the Miners by 292 net yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 175 yards. The Wildcats have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games played on a Friday night. |
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09-22-17 | Virginia +13 v. Boise State | 42-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
At 8:00 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (305) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (306). Boise State (2-1) will be looking to build off their 28-14 win over New Mexico last Thursday as a 16-point favorite. The Broncos have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. And while the Boise State offense managed only 264 yards of offense in that contest, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after failing to generate at least 275 yards of offense. Junior quarterback Brett Rypien did not play last week as he was going through the concussion protocol — he has been upgraded to being listed as probable for this contest. But it is unclear what head coach Bryan Horsin will do with his offense when considering that the inconsistent Rypien has no touchdown passes and an interception while Kansas graduate transfer has a 5:1 touchdown to interception ratio while adding 179 rushing yards on the ground. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 11 games at home, Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of these games. |
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09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers +3 | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
At 8:25 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (302) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (301). San Francisco (0-2) looks for their first victory of the season tonight after their tough 12-9 loss on the road in Seattle on Sunday as a 13.5-point favorite. The 49ers have now covered the point spread in 4 straight games against fellow NFC West opponents. Additionally, San Francisco typically plays this Rams’ franchise tough. Not only have they covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against “Los Angeles”, but they have also covered then point spread in 11 of their last 16 games at home against the Rams. Furthermore, the underdog has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in this series. |
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09-21-17 | Temple +20.5 v. South Florida | 7-43 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
At 7:30 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (303) plus the points versus the South Florida Bulls (304). Temple (2-1) enters this early important American Athletic Conference contest coming off a 29-21 win over UMass as a 14.5-point favorite last Friday. The Owls have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. Temple has also covered the point spread in 25 of their last 33 games against AAC opponents. The Owls should keep this game close after upsetting the Bulls last season by a 46-30 score as a 6-point underdog last October 21st. The key to success in that game was running the ball 51 times for 319 yards against this suspect South Florida defense. Temple still has running back Ryquelll Armstead who exploded for 210 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries in that upset victory last year. The Owls have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Temple has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. |
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09-18-17 | Lions v. Giants -3 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (290) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (289). New York (0-1) will be playing with a sense of desperation tonight having lost their opening game of the season in a 19-3 loss in Dallas as a 6-point underdog. Less than 13% of the teams that start the season with two losses have gotten off the mat to make the playoffs — so this is an important contest for the Giants that entered that contest with the Cowboys with deep playoff aspirations. New York has bounced-back to go 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, while the Giants managed only 233 yards of offense last week, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last contest. Dallas won the yardage battle in that Sunday Night by a 159 net yards. But not has New York covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after being outgained by at least 100 yards in their last contest but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after being outgained by at least 150 yards. The Giants will likely have the services of Odell Beckham tonight as he has been upgraded to probable despite his leg injury. His presence on the field not only helps Eli Manning by giving him his favorite target but it also will likely compel defenses to provide only single coverage against their new wide receiver Brandon Marshall. New York returns home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record, the Giants are 5-2-1 ATS. |
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09-17-17 | Packers v. Falcons -3 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (208) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (207). Atlanta (1-0) returns home to host a rematch with the Green Bay Packers who they last crushed when these two teams met by a 44-21 score in the NFC Conference Championships last January. The Falcons will also be playing their first game in the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium so except an electric atmosphere for this nationally televised game. Atlanta was listless last week in their 23-17 win on the road in Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite. But the Falcons have then rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win. Furthermore, while the Falcons offense did generate 372 yards of offense, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And in their last 7 games in the month of September, Atlanta has covered the point spread 5 times. |
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09-17-17 | Eagles +6 v. Chiefs | 20-27 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 38 m | Show | |
At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (271) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (272). Kansas City (1-0) has been the toast of the NFL over the last ten days after their opening night of the regular season beatdown of the Patriots by a 42-27 score despite being 8-point underdogs. Now the Chiefs return home where they have precarious favorites as they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games a home fave. Kansas City has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Additionally, expect a letdown from the Chiefs’ offensive explosion in that game after they generated 537 yards of offense against the Patriots. KC has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games. After producing three touchdowns of over 20 yards last week, it is highly unlikely that Alex Smith and company will see similar results today. |
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09-16-17 | Tennessee v. Florida -5 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 1 h 49 m | Show | |
At 3:30 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (166) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (165). Florida (0-1) has had an extra week to bounce-back from their opening game loss to Michigan in AT&T Stadium on September by a 33-17 score. The Gators were 4.5-point underdogs in that game — and they are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a point spread loss. Florida has also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games for a bye week. This team needs to improve on the offensive side of the football — but facing a stout Wolverines defense did not help. The Gators managed only 11 rushing yards on 27 carries against Michigan — but they are then 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. If Florida needed any extra motivation, they will have it with the memory of losing to the Volunteers team last September by a 38-28 score. |
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09-16-17 | UCLA v. Memphis +3.5 | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
At 12:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (138) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (137). UCLA (2-0) has a challenging trip east for this early kickoff on Saturday as the Bruins’ body clocks will think it is 9 AM. The team enters this game coming off a 56-23 win over Hawai’i last Saturday as a 24-point favorite. But UCLA has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a win by at least 20 points. Now this team goes on the road for the first time all season where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games. Furthermore, UCLA has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Pac-12. Defense is a concern for this team after they allowed the Rainbow Warriors to outgain them last week by surrendering 515 yards of offense. Of course, that defensive effort was after their opening game against Texas A&M where they executed that miracle 4th quarter comeback to steal that game. UCLA is allowing their opponents to average a whopping 331 rushing YPG along with 6.3 Yards-Per-Carry. Road favorites who have allowed at least 5.5 YPA in their last two games have then failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 31 games (84%) when these conditions applied. |