At 11:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (201) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (202) in the Bahamas Bowl. Miami (OH) (6-6) won three of their last four games to end their regular season concluding with an 18-17 victory against Ball State as a 2.5-point favorite on November 22nd. UAB (6-6) won two of their last three games after a 37-27 victory at Louisiana Tech as an 18.5-point favorite on November 26th. This game is being played at Thomas Robinson Stadium in Nassau, Bahamas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami (OH) looks to cap off their season under head coach Chuck Martin in his ninth year with the program. Quarterback Brett Gabbert has missed the last two games due to injury — and redshirt freshman Aveon Smith has played well in his absence. Gabbert planned to enter the transfer portal earlier this month — but he has since rescinded that decision. It is unclear if he will play in this game — but his return is a good indicator that there are good feelings inside the program moving forward. The RedHawks have covered the point spread 6 in their last 9 games after a narrow win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after failing to cover the point spread in their last contest. And while Miami (OH) gave up 265 rushing yards to the Cardinals, they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing 200 or more rushing yards in their last game. The RedHawks are a good defensive team that only allows 22.5 Points-Per-Game. They should play better in defending the run considering they ranked 40th in the nation by holding their opponents to 135.8 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and they ranked 22nd in the FBS in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. If Smith is under center again, he offers Miami (OH) a dual-threat option that Gabbert lacks. He led the team with 503 rushing after rushing for 84 yards against Ball State. He also passed for 217 yards with a touchdown pass. UAB may be enjoying the Bahamas with their new head coach Trent Dilfer waiting in the wings. After Bill Clark surprised the program by stepping down in the summer, offensive coordinator Bryant Vincent was tapped as the interim head coach. He led the team to a 6-6 record and this bowl — but it could have been more after they lost all five games decided by one-scoring possession. While the Blazers are better than their .500 record, their motivation now as a double-digit favorite is the more pertinent question at hand. As it is, UAB has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games away from home after only covering the point spread once in their last three contests. And while the Blazers surrendered 467 total yards to the Bulldogs in their last game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing 450 or more yards. After a four-turnover game on the road at Western Kentucky, UAB has only committed three turnovers — and never more than one a game — in five straight contests. But the Blazers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after not committing more than one turnover in three straight games. To compound matters, they will be without their leading rusher, DeWayne McBride who is dealing with an unspecified injury. While senior running back Jermaine Brown ran for 832 yards this season, McBride was the best offensive player on the team with his 1713 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns.

FINAL TAKE: UAB is in a bit of a transition from the Clark era to the hiring of a Super Bowl-winning quarterback in Dilfer whose head coaching experience is at a Nashville private high school. Miami (OH) is an established program under Martin that have a solid record of performing well in the postseason. The RedHawks have covered the point spread in 7 straight games in the postseason — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight bowl games including their 27-14 win against North Texas in the Frisco Football Classic last year. Miami (OH) may not pull the upset — but they should keep this game close. 10* CFB Bahamas Bowl ESPN Special with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (201) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (302) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (301). THE SITUATION: Seattle (7-6) has lost three of their last four contests after their 30-24 upset loss to Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (9-4) has won six games in a row after their 35-7 victory against Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle has been a disaster in stopping the run after allowing 209.5 rushing YPG in their last four games. But they expect to have Kenneth Walker back at running back after he missed last week which will help them control the clock after their defense was on the field for 39:16 minutes against the Panthers. The Seahawks' defense simply got gassed last week by staying on the field while Carolina racked up first down after first down. Seattle should step up their game tonight after failing to cover the point spread in four straight games. They have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games at home after getting upset in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. They stay at home where they are holding their opponents to 22.5 Points-Per-Game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. Seattle has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. And they are 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 games Thursday Night Football. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 63 games on the road after a win by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 41 games on the road after not allowing more than 9 points in their last game. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road to play in a hostile environment for the first time since October 30th (their lone road game last month was in Mexico against Arizona). Brock Purdy has been a pleasant surprise for the team — but as the book gets written on him as he puts accumulates for game tape with the Niners, this will be his first NFL appearance away from the friendly confines of Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games when favored by up to three points. Purdy looks to get the start tonight despite his ribs and oblique injury — the rookie has a hard assignment on a short week and limited practice. Head coach Kyle Shanahan will likely have a run-heavy game plan tonight even without Elijah Mitchell who is back on the Injured List with an MCL injury. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel is out as well with an ankle and knee injury. This team could sure use Jeff Wilson who they traded to Miami after acquiring Christian McCaffrey. Remember when McCaffrey was only going to be just another weapon in this offense to not risk yet another injury? He looks to get a heavy workload tonight — and Seattle knows it. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on Thursday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE:  This is a rematch of the Niners' 27-7 victory at home on September 18th — and Seattle has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with same-season revenge. San Francisco is just 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games against the Seahawks — and they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in Seattle. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (302) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (127) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (128). THE SITUATION: New England (6-6) has lost two games in a row after their 24-10 loss to Buffalo as a 3.5-point underdog back on December 1st. Arizona (4-8) has lost two straight — and four of their last five — after a 25-24 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog two weeks ago on November 27th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England comes off two straight losses — but they were against playoff teams, Minnesota and the Bills last week. Many observers are oh-so quick to criticize Bill Belichick since he has not had Super Bowl contenders since Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay — but the sign of a great coach is that your teams are still playing at a .500 level and contending for playoff spots even without a franchise level quarterback. Winning half the games is the floor for Belichick (23-22 post-Brady) — and there are many highly regarded coaches in the league (Sean McVay, Kevin Stefanski, Matt LaFleur) who would love a .500 record right about now. Expect the Patriots to play well tonight as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games this season after a loss. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss at home. New England gained only 242 total yards while getting outgained by -113 net yards — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 28 games after not generating at least 250 yards in their last game.  And while they have failed to cover the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games on the road after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Now the Patriots go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The thirstiest and lowest-hanging fruit of an argument to make is to criticize Belichick for appointing his former defensive coordinator (and disaster of a head coach in Detroit) Matt Patricia for being tabbed as the team’s offensive coordinator this season. The deeper analytics at Football Outsiders rank New England 25th in Offensive DVOA — ranking 26th in the run game and 22nd in the pass. But “offensive guru” Kliff Kingsbury with Kyler Murray at quarterback ranks 29th in the league in Offensive DVOA -- bottoming out at 27th in the run and 28th in the passing game. The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game at home where both teams scored 24 or more points. Murray is regressing — and it starts with his struggles against pressure. He has been sacked 18 times in his last three starts (all losses) — he got sacked once for every 12 of his dropbacks. His Passer Rating of 12.8 when under pressure is in the NFL. Now here comes Matthew Judon with his 13 sacks this season and this Patriots defense that ranks 3rd in the league by sacking the quarterback in 9.01% of their dropbacks. But it is not just handling pressure where Murray is struggling since he signed his large contract extension — it is when he is not dinking and dunking. In passes of at least 10 air yards (which is still technically considered intermediate), he has completed only 49 of 108 passes for a 45.4% completion percentage with two touchdowns on those throws but six interceptions. Furthermore, the 8.4 yards per attempt he is averaging on those throws is the third worst in the NFL — only Kenny Pickett and Joe Flacco have lower YPA averages. Murray has also lost sixteen of his last twenty starts at home. Arizona is a bad home where they are just 1-5 this season while getting outscored by -6.2 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -74.4 net Yards-Per-Game. The Carnivals have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home in the second half of the season. Furthermore, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Say what you want about Belichick — but the Special Teams remain above average and his defense is elite. New England ranks 3rd in the NFL in Defensive DVOA — and ranking 8th against the run and 4th against the pass. This formula has helped the Patriots cover the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games against teams with a losing record. 25* NFL Monday Night Special Feature with New England Patriots (127) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (120) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (119). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-20 loss at Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Miami (8-4) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 33-17 loss at San Francisco as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins may have an 8-4 record — but they are only outscoring their opponents by +0.8 Points-Per-Game. Five of their eight victories were decided by one scoring possession. They are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 14 or more points. Miami only gained 308 total yards against the 49ers — and their mere eight rushing attempts provided them only 33 yards of rushing. While rookie head coach Mike McDaniel is lauded by many as an offensive genius for the passing plays he can draw up, his teams can get lulled into passing the ball too much and burning his tiring defense. The Dolphins were only on offense for 19:26 minutes against the Niners. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. Miami stayed out west this week for this second game on the road — and they allow their home hosts to score 32.8 Points-Per-Game while getting outscored by -6.6 net Points-Per-Game in their six road contests. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. Los Angeles’ four of six losses have been decided by one scoring possession. They have still covered the points spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Justin Herbert completed 28 of 47 passes for 335 passing yards in the losing effort against the Raiders — and now he gets Mike Williams back this week to join up with Keenan Allen after both wide receivers have missed multiple games this season. While I cannot wait for Herbert to operate in a better-conceived offense next season (most likely designed by Sean Payton), he has a great opportunity to find success tonight against this Dolphins’ pass defense that ranks 23rd in the NFL in Passing DVOA using the analytics at Football Outsiders. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after passing for 250 or more yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: This is the battle of the Game Management Challenged Head Coaches — I shudder at the thought of what the supposed “The Analytics” (that assumes that every statistical moment is the same and that momentum does not exist — it is just “hindsight bias,” a convenient psychological conclusion by these quants to evade what would otherwise be a prima-facie indictment of all their 4th down probability numbers) will compel these coaches to do tonight. The Special Teams DVOA numbers rate Miami as having the worst Special Teams in the NFL — and the Chargers come in at a solid 12th in those rankings. Los Angeles has been an underdog 4 times this season — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of these contests. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Chargers (120) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (119). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (102) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (101). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-9) has lost six games in a row after their 27-23 loss to Seattle as a 7-point underdog last Sunday. Las Vegas (5-7) has won three in a row after their 27-20 victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles is a mess at quarterback with Matthew Stafford out the season with a spinal injury and backup John Wolford questionable with a neck injury. The Rams signed Baker Mayfield two days ago — and it looks like there is a good chance he will play tonight. I waited until this afternoon waiting for the updated report on who will start at quarterback tonight — head coach Sean McVay will wait on that decision until Wolford goes through pre-game workouts to see how his neck responds. If Wolford cannot go, then McVay will turn to either Bryce Perkins or Mayfield who has been in their building for just two days. No matter who is under center tonight, Los Angeles will want to establish the run to slow this game down — and they might have gotten their best game of the season last week from embattled running back Cam Akers last week who scored two touchdowns while running for 60 yards. Frankly, I am not surprised at all about the fall of this Rams team this season — I considered them the most likely Super Bowl winner in (at least) the last twenty years to suffer from a championship hangover. Playing a living in Los Angeles after surviving several close scares in the postseason last year combined with their lack of depth — I was selling this team in August. But I expect some championship pride to show up for this team on national television tonight — and they really do not have much reason to tank since their first-round draft pick belongs to Detroit in the Stafford trade. Granted, defensive tackle Aaron Donald and wide receiver Cooper Kupp are also all for this game — but that is why the Rams are getting six or so points at home. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to a divisional rival. And while they have allowed 26 or more points in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 25 points in four straight games. Las Vegas' three-game winning streak included upset wins at Seattle and Denver before they rallied from a 10-point second-quarter deficit to beat the Chargers last week. The Raiders have gained at least 404 yards in three straight games after generating that amount of yardage last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Las Vegas has averaged 462.3 YPG in those last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after averaging 450 YPG in their last three games. But consistency has remained a problem for the Raiders under quarterback Derek Carr. Las Vegas gained 400 or more yards just once in their first nine games. Running back Josh Jacobs has rushed for 482 yards in those three contests — but he may not be able to maintain that level of effectiveness playing on a short week while being officially listed as questionable with a quad and calf injury. I do expect Jacobs to play — I just remain in doubt about how good he will be on three days of rest. The Raiders stay on the road for the third time in their last four games having scored just 21.7 Points-Per-Game and averaging 308.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their seven contests away from home — and they are just 2-5 on the road. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games against teams with a losing record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 8 games on the road when favored. Furthermore, Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in December — and Los Angeles is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games in December. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Rams (102) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (477). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (5-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week in a 23-17 upset loss at Cleveland as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (4-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 13-0 loss at San Francisco as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay has disappointed this season — and their fundamental flaw on the offensive line this year was made even worse with the lower-leg injury to Tristan Wirfs. I appreciate the impact of this injury. But …  running the ball helps cover the weaknesses of a bad offensive line and the Buccaneers are starting to get nice contributions from rookie Rachaad White who has rushed for 169 yards in the last two games with a 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry average. A veteran quarterback with elite pocket presence helps with a bad offensive line as well — and here comes Tom Brady with the opportunity to still get his team into the postseason with a defense that remains outstanding two years removed from their Super Bowl victory in 2021. The Buccaneers return home after playing their last two games away from home in Germany and then Cleveland last week. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after an upset on the road as a favorite. The Buccaneers are holding their opponents to 18.5 Points-Per-Game and 315.2 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have held their last three opponents to 17.3 PPG and 285.3 total YPG. The DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders ranks Tampa Bay as the 7th best defense in the NFL. New Orleans only gained 260 yards last week in their shutout loss to the  Niners. It is dangerous to fade teams embarrassed by a shutout loss — but the Saints’ issues on offense go much deeper than just a bad day at the office. They are scoring just 12.3 PPG and averaging 256.3 total YPG in their last three games. Alvin Kamara seems to have lost a step — he is averaging only 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry in his last three games with only 163 rushing yards. He has added another 230 yards in the air in those three games — but the problem there is that he serves as a primary receiver for this team that lacks weapons at wideout. The offense misses a number-one option now that Michael Thomas is out the season. And then there are their problems at quarterback with Andy Dalton being given the nod over Jameis Winston since he is less turnover-prone. The Red Rifles’ frontline stats are solid this season — but it is fair to say he lacks juice. Let’s use one of our tools in MLB to break his numbers down further: home/road splits. In his six starts at home at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, Dalton has completed 68.5% of his passes averaging a 7.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with nine touchdown passes and two interceptions. But in his three starts on the road this season, he is completing 63.1% of his passes averaging 7.2 YPA with five touchdown passes and five interceptions. Dalton versus the Tampa Bay defense seems to be the critical matchup that gives the Buccaneers the edge — especially with Kamara faltering as of late. DVOA ranks the New Orleans offense 24th in the league — and their passing attack ranks 24th in the NFL. Not surprisingly, the Saints are bad on the road with a 1-5 record and scoring just 18.3 PPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight appearances on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: I had higher hopes for Dennis Allen as the head coach for the Saints this season — and he enters this month leading a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. I considered New Orleans’ revenge angle for this game and the sustained success they have had against Brady since he moved to Tampa Bay — but I still concluded the Bucs similarly handle them as they did on September 18th when they won 20-10 in New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite. 25* NFC South Game of the Month with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (477). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (475) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (476). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-7-1) has lost two in a row and five of their last six contests after their 24-17 upset loss to Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite on Monday. Dallas (8-3) has won two in a row and four of their last five games after their 28-20 win against the New York Giants as a 10.5-point favorite on Thanksgiving.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: I don’t think much of Jeff Saturday as an interim head coach — but the main benefit of his move from Jim Irsay’s drinking buddy to the leader of the 2022-23 team is that he had the leverage to install Matt Ryan back at quarterback. The Colts began the year as a .500 team — and they are still basically a .500 team. Despite their losing record, they are outgaining their opponents by +9.9 net Yards-Per-Game. The opportunity to take them as a double-digit underdog presents too much value to pass up. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. The Indy defense remains solid — they rank 5th in the NFL by allowing only 308.9 YPG and they rank in the top half of the league at 13th according to the Football Outsiders DVOA efficiency ratings. They have held four of their last six opponents to 20 points or less. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They did outgain the Giants last week by +130 net yards on the strength of generating 430 yards of offense — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home after outgaining their previous opponent by +100 or more yards. And while the Cowboys have averaged 436.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after averaging 400 or more YPG in their last three contests.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Indianapolis Colts (475) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (471) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (472). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 25-24 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Las Vegas (4-7) pulled off their second-straight upset — both requiring overtime — in their 40-34 victory at Seattle as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Raiders are clinging to postseason hopes after losing seven of their first nine games this season in what has been a tumultuous first year under head coach Josh McDaniels. Surviving two straight overtimes is likely to be physically and emotionally draining after upsetting Denver on the road two weeks ago — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after pulling off two straight upsets. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two of their last three games. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road where they scored 31 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 35 or more points in their last contest. The Raiders gained 576 yards last week against the Seahawks after generating 407 yards against the Broncos two weeks ago — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 400 yards in two straight games. Derek Carr completed 25 of 36 passes for 295 yards with three touchdown passes but two interceptions in the win — but Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. Carr struggles against the Rams with a 1-3 record in his last four starts — and he has been sacked 13 times in those games for a sack rate of one in every 9.6 dropbacks. Furthermore, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. Las Vegas has the worst defense in the NFL according to the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher including failing to cover the point spread in seven of those last ten circumstances. Additionally, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when favored including five of their last seven games when laying the points. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win on the road They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Chargers were outrushed in the game by -116 net yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after outrushing their last opponent by 100 or more yards. They did enjoy a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Justin Herbert was exquisite in that game by completing 35 of 47 passes for 274 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions despite still being without wide receiver Mike Williams. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road as an underdog. Furthermore, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against divisional rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders will have revenge on their minds after losing in LA to the Chargers on September 11th by a 24-19 score — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when attempting to avenge a loss and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games when avenging a loss by seven points or less. Los Angeles still remembers losing in Vegas to the Raiders on the last Sunday night of the regular season that cost them a trip to the playoffs last season — but they have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played in the Raiders’ home building in Oakland or on the Vegas strip. 25* AFC West Underdog of the Year with the Los Angeles Chargers (471) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (315) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (316) in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Fresno State (8-4) has won seven games in a row after their 30-0 win against Wyoming as a 14-point favorite last Friday. Boise State (9-3) has won three in a row — and seven of their last eight — after their 42-23 victory against Utah State as a 16.5-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Fresno State’s numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt given the midseason injury to senior quarterback Jake Haener. The gunslinger will be one of the top quarterbacks taken in the NFL draft this spring. In the seven games he finished this year, he averaged 330.7 passing Yards-Per-Game. For the year, he completed 73.5% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes and just three interceptions. Even without Haener under center all season, the Bulldogs ranked 15th in the nation in Success Rate on offense — and they were top 25 in both Rush Success Rate and Pass Success Rate. They scored 30.9 Points-Per-Game and generated 407.0 Yards-Per-Game. They should continue off the momentum they have established since Haener returned to action. Fresno State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home against a conference rival — and they are 27-13-2 ATS in their last 42 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after winning three or more conference games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite in their last game. Fresno State has a good defense that gives up only 20.8 PPG — and they have held their last three opponents to just 14.7 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win by double-digits. Additionally, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a win by 17 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. The Broncos' season turned around after a 2-2 start when offensive coordinator Tim Plough was replaced by former Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach and veteran offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. Freshman Taylor Green took over under center — and he led the team to a 6-1 record. While Green offers a running threat, he is not as dynamic as a passer as he averages only 196.9 passing YPG. He led an offense that averaged 7.25 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after generating 6.75 or YPP in their last game. Boise State gets to host this game on the blue turf at Albertsons Stadium — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games at home when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December — and the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in conference play. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Underdog of the Year with the Fresno State Bulldogs (315) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas State Wildcats (307) plus the point(s) versus the TCU Horned Frogs (308) in the Big 12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Kansas State (9-3) rides a three-game winning streak after their 47-27 win against Kansas as an 11.5-point favorite last Saturday. TCU (12-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 62-14 victory against Iowa State as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINT(S): I suspect the bubble bursts for the Horned Frogs who have been riding a wave of good fortune this season. TCU has been fortunate to play four opponents who were using backup quarterbacks due to injuries. They have rallied to win four of their ten games after fourth-quarter deficits. They have won all five of their games decided by one-scoring possession. They enjoy a +10 net turnover margin on the year — and they have only committed two turnovers in their last four games. Now this team faces the pressure of needing the win to clinch a spot in the College Football Playoff. Do the Horned Frogs still make the playoff with a loss this afternoon? Who knows what this (crooked) committee will do? Before one says, “of course, they do, the one-loss teams are in!” — keep in mind that TCU would be at least a touchdown underdog on a neutral field against both Ohio State and Alabama. The committee faces an existential crisis regarding how they justify their TV show (which promotes their later televised games involving the ranked teams, always positioned for the game to represent a de-facto playoff game). They may decide to dodge the Ohio State versus Alabama question by screwing the Big 12 team — and the analytics will defend that position. The uncertainty adds pressure — and, frankly, the fact that TCU may think they will still can back may only compound matters. I don’t like it. As it is, the Horned Frogs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. They only outgained the Cyclones last week by +47 net yards — they benefitted from a +3 net turnover margin. But now they go on the road where they are only outgaining their opponents by +13.0 net Yards-Per-Game while allowing their opponents to generate 415.7 net YPG. We saw last night with USC how teams with shaky defenses perform under pressure in neutral environments against physical opponents. TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played on a neutral field when favored by seven points or less. Kansas State gets to play the role of the spoiler — and they are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a victory against a Big 12 opponent. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last contest. The Wildcats generated 7.16 Yards-Per-Play against the Jayhawks — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP in their last contest. Kansas State averaged 6.33 YPP in their previous game at West Virginia — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on the road after generating at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. Spencer Howard will be the starting quarterback in this game with Adrian Martinez still not 100%.   What Howard lacks in matching Martinez’s rushing ability, he makes up for in offering a vertical passing threat. Howard has 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions under key situations this season. In his last four starts for the Wildcats, he is leading an offense that generates 6.2 YPP — and Kansas State has outscored their opponents by an average score of 44-15. Martinez should be available as a backup — and he may get to play a few special packages that emphasize his running ability. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas State will be looking to avenge a 38-28 loss at TCU on October 22nd in a game where Martinez got injured in the contest and then Howard got banged up coming in relief which neutralized his effectiveness. The Wildcats held a 28-10 second-quarter lead before Howard got injured and they did not score the rest of the way. But Kansas State has still covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Horned Frogs. 25* CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year with the Kansas State Wildcats (307) plus the point(s) versus the TCU Horned Frogs (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Toledo Rockets (309) minus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (310) in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Toledo (7-5) has lost two straight games after their 20-14 upset loss at Western Michigan as a 10.5-point favorite last Friday. Ohio (9-3) has won seven straight games after their 38-14 win against Bowling Green as a 5.5-point favorite back on November 22nd. This game will be played on a neutral field at Ford Field in Detroit.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS MINUS THE POINTS: Toledo limps into the MAC Championship Game — but keep in mind that they had clinched their spot in this game for weeks. They are dealing with injuries at quarterback with starter DeQuan Finn dealing with upper body and ankle injuries and backup Tucker Gleason hampered by an injury to his non-throwing hand. But Finn did start last week before getting pulled after throwing two interceptions. Expect Finn to play better. This is a step-up game for the Rockets who were projected as the favorites to win the conference title this year. Seventh-year head coach Jason Candle needs to bring this one home with rumblings getting louder in the Toledo fan base that his top-rated conference recruiting classes in five of the last six years should have produced more than one championship. The Rockets’ victory today should start with the play of their defense. They rank 8th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 19th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. They also rank 11th in the FBS in Havoc Rate. They held the Broncos to just 188 total yards but lost that game because of a -3 net turnover margin. Toledo has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing two of their last three games. The offensive effort last week was a disappointment — but they are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games after not scoring more than 20 points. They have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. Ohio has an even more dire situation at quarterback after Kurtis Rourke suffered a season-ending knee injury two weeks ago. Rourke posted a raw QBR of 81 which was the second-best mark of all quarterbacks playing for a Group of Five teams. The Bobcats experience a big drop-off in play with backup quarterback C.J. Harris who completed only 10 of 21 passes for 196 yards last week. While Harris does offer the team a dual-threat rushing option, now Toledo has game tape on how Ohio wants to deploy him. Not much was expected of this Bobcats team that was 3-9 last year in the first season under head coach Tim Ahlin. But the Bobcats have lived on an opportunistic defense that has forced 24 turnovers this year. However, it is difficult to continue to rely on winning the turnover battle as Ohio has a +13 net turnover margin this season. They have only committed one turnover in their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after not committing more than one turnover in three straight games. The takeaways are obscuring the fact that the Bobcats are getting outgained in yardage this season. When playing away from home, Ohio is getting outscored by -4.5 net Points-Per-Game and outgained by -77.7 net Yards-Per-Game. The Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after winning their previous game by 20 or more points.

FINAL TAKE: Ohio has pulled off four upset wins this year — but one of those upsets was not at home against the Rockets earlier this year when they got beat by a 35-23 score. The Bobcats rank 113th in the nation in  Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed — and they give up 441.8 total YPG. Toledo has covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams who allow 425 or more YPG. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Blowout of the Year with the Toledo Rockets (309) minus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (305) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (306) in the Pac-12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Utah (9-3) has won five of their last six games after their 63-21 victory at Colorado as a 30-point favorite last Saturday. USC (11-1) has won five in a row after a 38-27 win against Notre Dame as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES PLUS THE POINTS: Utah will be quite familiar with these circumstances tonight as they are playing in their fourth Pac-12 Championship Game in the last five seasons. This will be a confident team who rallied from 14-0 and 21-7 first-quarter deficits to defeat the Trojans at home by a 43-42 score on October 15th. Head coach Kyle Whittingham should have an interesting game plan to slow down USC’s likely Heisman Trophy quarterback Caleb Williams. While Williams passed for 381 yards and five touchdowns, the Utes sacked him four times and pressured him into some bad throws after that initial quarter. USC only scored 20 points in the final three-quarters of that game. The Utah defense stopped the Trojans in 15 of their 28 third or fourth downs. Since the USC game, the Utes have held their last five opponents to 17.0 Points-Per-Game — and four of the touchdowns they gave up came in garbage time. Furthermore, Utah has given up more than 67 rushing yards only once in those five games. The Utes held the Buffaloes last week to just 185 total yards despite giving the most points since that Trojans game — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. Utah should build off their late-season momentum as they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 20 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. The Utes generated a whopping 662 yards against Colorado — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 or more yards in their last contest. Quarterback Cam Rising completed 17 of 19 passes for 234 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Rising starred in the first meeting with USC by completing 30 of 44 passes for 415 yards. Tight end Dalton Kinkaid was unstoppable by catching all 16 of his targets for 234 yards. The weak link in this game is the Trojans' defense — they are surrendering 33.4 PPG and 475.6 YPG when playing away from home. USC ranks 116th in the nation in Opponents' Pass Success Rate Allowed and 121st in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate Allowed. USC gave up 318 passing yards to Notre Dame last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after allowing 280 or more passing yards in their last contest. They have been fortunate with a +22 net turnover margin on the season with only two giveaways all season — the second-best turnover margin this season is owned by Duke a +15 which is a dramatic gap.

FINAL TAKE: The stakes could not be higher for USC since it appears that a victory would get them into the College Football Playoff. This will be their third-straight high-emotion game after rivalry games against UCLA and Notre Dame. The Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games played on a neutral field. 10* CFB Utah-USC Fox-TV Special with the Utah Utes (305) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (302) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (301). THE SITUATION: New England (6-5) had their three-game winning streak end in a 33-26 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog on Thursday. Buffalo (8-3) has won six of their last eight games after their 28-25 victory at Detroit as a 10-point favorite on Thanksgiving.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England outgained the Vikings by +51 net yards but still lost on the road at Minnesota. The Patriots are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 38 of their last 51 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. New England’s defense is the real deal — they rank 2nd in the league in DVOA and first when weighting those defensive metrics to recent games. They hold their guests to just 15.2 PPG and 264.0 total YPG when playing at home. Additionally, in their last three games, they have held their opponents to only 13.0 PPG and 194.0 total YPG. The encouraging aspect of their loss last week was that Mac Jones played one of his best games of the season by completing 28 of 39 passes for 382 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Patriots gained 409 total yards in that game — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. New England returns home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against AFC opponents. Buffalo will be without Von Miller who is dealing with a knee injury. The Bills score 28.1 Points-Per-Game and 415.9 YPG — but those numbers drop to 24.7 PPG and 393.4 YPG when playing on the road.  

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and New England is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the New England Patriots (302) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (275) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (276). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (3-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 37-20 loss to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (4-6-1) has lost four of their last five games after a 17-16 loss to Philadelphia as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: When observing head coaches like Sean McVay endure a terrible season, it is a remarkable achievement for Mike Tomlin that his Steelers teams have not endured a losing record during his previous 15 seasons with the franchise. That accomplishment is at risk this year — but one thing we can rely on is that his teams will always play hard. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Steelers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing at least 30 points including covering the point spread in five of those last six situations. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after allowing 35 or more points. They are getting solid play from rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett who completed 25 of 42 passes for 265 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions. He is not making many mistakes under center while demonstrating composure and a sense of control that transcends the box score. Running back Najee Harris is heating up as of late as he leads a Pittsburgh rushing attack that has averaged 154 rushing yards per game in their last three contests. Harris has run for 185 yards in the last two games. The Steelers have generated 343.3 total YPG in their last three games which is more than 30 yards above their season average. They have also held their last three opponents to 331.7 YPG which is more than 40 YPG below their season average. After playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road for the next two games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing their last two games at home. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss by six points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a loss at home by three points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread after a loss at home where they covered the point spread as an underdog. This is a bad football team despite their on-face defensive numbers that include them ranking 5th in the NFL by allowing only 307.6 YPG. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders rank the Colts' defense as 30th in the league — those analytics measure efficiency to neutralize the slowing down of the clock by running the football which helps Indianapolis’ frontline defensive statistics. The Indy offense ranks 31st using the DVOA numbers including ranking 30th against the pass and 32nd in the run game despite having Jonathan Taylor at running back. The Steelers have a solid run defense that tanks 14th in the league according to DVOA. The Colts are scoring only 14.7 PPG and 273.3 YPG in their last three games. They have a high school head coach running the team in Jeff Saturday. While the team got an initial boost when the former center for Peyton Manning went from owner Jim Irsay’s drinking buddy to head coach in a win over Las Vegas, the honeymoon is over. Every coach in the room knows he will not be back with the team — so morale is a concern for this group moving forward. Saturday posted a 20-16 record coaching for Hebron Christian Academy in Georgia for three seasons.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (275) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (273) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (274). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (4-7) has lost six of their last seven games after their 27-17 upset loss to Tennessee as a 3-point favorite on November 17th. Philadelphia (9-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season by beating the Colts in Indianapolis by a 17-16 score as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Green Bay will get extra time to rest, heal, and prepare for this game after getting the Thursday night game last week. They have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after playing on a Thursday in their previous game. The Packers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss. I expect this team will get back to running the football tonight. After running the ball at least 25 times in three straight games, they only ran the ball 19 times for 56 yards against the Titans. Green Bay ranks 5th in the NFL by the DVOA ratings at Football Outsiders — and they will be running the ball against an Eagles defense that ranks 26th in the league in run defense according to those DVOA analytics. The Packers go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting up to seven points. After winning the turnover battle in their first eight games this season, Philadelphia has seen the Regression Gods appear by losing the turnover battle in each of their last two games. Perhaps not coincidentally, the Eagles' offense has taken a step back as of late as they are scoring just 22.3 PPG and 312.7 YPG in their last three games — -4.0 PPG and -57.3 YPG below their season average. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Philadelphia returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 45 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 meetings with the Eagles. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Green Bay Packers (273) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (259) minus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (260). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (6-4) has won four of their last five games after their 37-20 victory at Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (7-3) has won seven of their last eight games after their 27-17 upset win at Green Bay as a 3-point underdog on November 17th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINT(S): After an 0-2 start to the season, the reigning AFC champions are clicking now even with injuries to skill players on offense. Running back Joe Mixon is not expected to play again this afternoon — but Samaje Perine stepped up with 82 rushing yards and three touchdown receptions against the Steelers. Wide receiver Ja’Mar Chase is questionable but not expected to play as well — but Joe Burrow continues to roll with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd as reliable weapons in the passing game. They have scored 30.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. Burrow completed 24 of 39 passes for 355 yards with four touchdown passes last week — and Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last contest. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a point-spread victory. Additionally, while the Bengals surrendered 408 total yards against Pittsburgh, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Cincinnati’s no-name defense remains underrated under defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo — they are holding their opponents to just 326.7 YPG. The Bengals also thrive in the hidden yards department — they are the least penalized team in the NFL with only 318 penalty yards assessed against them in their ten games. They go on the road where they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games against AFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Tennessee may be due for a letdown after covering the point spread in eight straight games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after an upset victory by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after a double-digit upset victory as a road underdog. Ryan Tannehill completed 22 of 27 passes for 333 yards against the Packers — but they are 23-49-2 ATS in their last 74 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Titans are eking out low-scoring games despite getting outgained by -54.7 net YPG. At home, they are getting outgained by -28.5 net YPG. Five of their seven victories have been decided by one scoring possession. And while their bend but don’t break defense is allowing only 15.7 PPG in their last three games, they are surrendering 361.0 YPG in those games. Tennessee has the top run defense in the league using the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders — but they are just 13th against the pass using those metrics which is an ominous sign when facing Burrow. Tennessee is also dealing with a bevy of injuries still with defensive lineman Denico Autry out for this game and many other defensive starters listed as questionable.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee will want to avenge their 1816 loss at home to the Bengals in the playoffs last season — but this is still not a good matchup for them. Cincinnati averages 271 passing YPG — and the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after eight games into the season against teams who are averaging 260 or more passing YPG. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (259) minus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UNLV Rebels (198) minus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (187). THE SITUATION: UNLV (4-7) lost for the sixth time in a row after a 31-25 upset loss at Hawai’i as an 11-point favorite last Saturday. Nevada (2-9) has lost nine games in a row after a 41-14 loss to Fresno State as a 22-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS MINUS THE POINTS: UNLV got caught traveling away from the mainland to play in Honolulu last week. They outgained the Rainbow Warriors by a 427 to 369 margin in yards in that game but still lost the game. The Rebels did get a good game out of quarterback Doug Brumfield who completed 23 of 37 passes for 288 yards while adding 55 more yards on the ground. UNLV has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Rebels are a better team than their record indicates. Brumfield missed two games this season due to injury — and they averaged just 7.0 Points-Per-Game in those contests. But when Brumfield is healthy and under center, they are scoring 30.0 PPG. They lost all four of their games decided by one-scoring possession. They played tough against quality competition a 4-point loss to San Diego State, a 7-point loss to Fresno State, and a 6-point loss at California. They also scored 21 points on the road in South Bend against Notre Dame. Returning home to Allegiant Stadium on the Las Vegas strip, UNLV is scoring 35.6 PPG and generating 411.2 total Yards-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Nevada started the season with two straight wins — but they are reeling now after getting scoring only 17 combined points and giving up 82 points to Boise State and Fresno State in their last two contests. Their average losing margin in their nine-game losing streak has been by three touchdowns. They lost to Incarnate Word out of the FCS by 14 points. At this point of the season, it appears that the Wolf Pack are low on morale. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by 20 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Nevada gave up 524 yards last week to the Bulldogs — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. Quarterback Nate Cox is completing only 51% of his passes and averaging just 5.7 yards-per-attempt. They go back on the road where they are gaining only 244.0 YPG.

FINAL TAKE: UNLV will be motivated to end their season on a high note while avenging a 51-20 loss at Nevada to their in-state rival last week. The Rebels have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November — and Nevada has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Game of the Year with the UNLV Rebels (198) minus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (187). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (158) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (157). THE SITUATION: Clemson (10-1) has won two games in a row after their 40-10 win against Miami (FL) as a 19-point favorite last Saturday. South Carolina (7-4) comes off their 63-38 upset win against Tennessee as a 23.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Gamecocks come off their Super Bowl as they rebounded from a 38-6 shellacking to Florida by shocking a Volunteers team that was still dreaming of a possible College Playoff berth before getting creamed by 25 points. South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler had thrown only eight touchdown passes all season before tossing six last week — but I suspect that speaks more about the state of the wretched Tennessee pass defense than it does about a sudden jump in quality in the Gamecocks passing attack. Rattler completed 30 of 37 passes for 438 yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Furthermore, South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a win by 20 or more points. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win at home against an SEC rival. And in their last 11 games after a point spread victory, they are then 1-9-1 ATS. They go back on the road where are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. The Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. They have allowed their last three opponents to generate 492.0 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing 475 or more YPG in their last three contests. South Carolina is particularly vulnerable to good rushing attacks — they rank 128th in Opponent Rush Success Rate and 121st in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. Led by running back Will Shipley, Clemson ranks 18th in the nation in Rush Success Rate behind an offensive line that ranks 20th in the FBS in Line Yards. After suffering their lone loss of the season to Notre Dame, the Tigers have scored 71 combined points in their last two games while averaging 443 YPG. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 50 of their last 76 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. The Clemson defense remains stout as always — they held the Hurricanes to just 98 yards last week. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. Clemson ranks 18th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate while ranking 20th in Opponent Finishing Drives. They also rank 4th in Havoc Rate — and South Carolina ranks 128th in the FBS in Havoc Rate Allowed. The Tigers stay at home where they are 6-0 this season with an average winning margin of +18.7 PPG while outgaining their opponents by +137.0 net YPG. They have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 32 home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: Clemson needs to put up a big number for style points with the playoff committee that is not enamored with them right now — and they need to have their offense clicking before playing the suspect North Carolina defense in the ACC Championship Game next week. The Tigers’ playoff chances remain undervalued since with their strong possibility of only having one loss by the end of next week. Clemson has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November — and South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in November. The Gamecocks have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with Clemson. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Clemson Tigers (158) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (157). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Central Michigan Chippewas (117) plus the points versus the Eastern Michigan Eagles (118). THE SITUATION: Central Michigan (4-7) had their two-game winning streak end in a 12-10 upset loss at home against Western Michigan as a 9.5-point favorite last Wednesday. Eastern Michigan (7-4) has won three of their last four games after their 31-24 upset victory at Kent State as a 7.5-point underdog last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIPPEWAS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): The Eagles are bowl eligible with seven victories — but they cannot win the Mid-American Conference West Division since they trail Toledo by one game with the Rockets controlling the tie-breaker after beating Eastern Michigan earlier in the season. So while they would love to beat one of their in-state rivals that handed them a 31-10 loss last season, the urgency level is not extreme. Frankly, the Eagles have been overachieving all season after benefitting from winning five of their six games decided by one scoring possession — and they have pulled off four upset wins this year. They are getting outscored on the year — and they are getting outgained by -25.3 net Yards-Per-Game. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 games after an upset victory — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three of their last four games. And in their last 11 games when playing with eight or more days between games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these contests. They return home to Ypsilanti where they are just 2-3 while getting outscored by -7.2 net Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -104.0 net YPG. Eastern Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 51 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Eagles have also failed to cover the point spread in their last 5 games played on a Friday. Central Michigan lost their (realistic) chances to qualify for a bowl last week in their upset loss to the Broncos. That game was a mess — starting with a power outage that delayed the game to the Chippewas committing too many penalties and enduring a -2 net turnover margin. There remains a chance that earning their fifth win could set up the possibility of securing a bowl bid despite their losing record, but the probability of that is low. This game is likely the de-facto bowl game for head coach Jim McElwain’s team after a 9-4 campaign with a bowl victory against Washington State last season. Central Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home to a MAC rival. And while they gave up 255 rushing yards to Western Michigan last week, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last contest. McElwain has made a change at quarterback by not relying on sophomore Daniel Richardson who is a pocket passer. Instead, he has been giving snaps to two redshirt freshmen dual-threat quarterbacks, Bert Emanuel, Jr., and Jade Bauer. Emanuel, Jr. is averaging 140 rushing YPG himself — and the Chippewas have won all four of their games when they gain at least 160 yards on the ground. Eastern Michigan allows 159 rushing YPG — and they have given up 160 or more yards on the ground in five of their games this year. Central Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road in the second half of the season. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games in November. The Chippewas have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games played on a Friday.

FINAL TAKE: Central Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 straight meetings with the Eagles — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against Eastern Michigan in Ypsilanti. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Year with the Central Michigan Chippewas (117) plus the points versus the Eastern Michigan Eagles (118). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (110) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (109). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (8-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 40-3 loss at home to Dallas as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. New England (6-4) has won three in a row after a 10-3 win against the New York Jets as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: In the Report on Dallas last week for our NFL Game of the Month, I leaned heavily on the underwhelming analytics for Minnesota this season despite having only one loss at the time. After getting blown out by 37 points, the Vikings are now being outscored and outgained in yardage this season. But I expect a very strong effort from them tonight to get the bad taste out of their mouths from that game. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 45 of their last 66 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 home games after a loss by 21 or more points. And while they trailed at halftime by a 23-3 score, the Vikings have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games at home after not scoring more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. Minnesota only gained 183 total yards in the game while having their offense on the field for just 22:36 minutes of that game — but they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games after not gaining at least 250 yards in their last game. Quarterback Kirk Cousins completed only 12 of 23 passes for 105 yards before getting benched with the game out of hand. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a game where they did not gain at least 150 passing yards in their last game. Now we have a prime-time game with Cousins holding a career 10-18 record as the starter in prime-time games just like this. That said, I do note that Cousins completes 66% of his passes in prime-time with 50 touchdown passes and just 26 interceptions in those 28 prime-time games. The Vikings have a situational edge this week by getting to stay home on a short week — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. New England seemed destined for overtime against the Jets last week before returning a punt for an 84-yard touchdown late in the game to bypass Mac Jones attempt to lead the team on a game-winning drive. Cousins will not have to be great tonight to outduel the Jones-led Patriots’ offense. In their last three games, New England is scoring only 19.3 PPG and 262.7 Yards-Per-Game. The Patriots rank 26th in offense using the DVOA analytics by the Football Outsiders — and they are subpar in both the run and the pass by ranking 24th and 26th in those metrics. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last contest. New England’s defense is keeping them in games — they have allowed 87 combined passing yards in their last two games. But we need to keep in mind that the last two quarterbacks that the Patriots have faced have been Sam Ehlinger and Zach Wilson — and those are two players who have since been benched. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in two straight games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range. Even facing prime-time Cousins is a massive upgrade in talent than what Bill Belichick’s defense has faced in the last two weeks. Minnesota is completing 64% of their passes this season — and the Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 road games against teams who complete at least 64% of their passes.

FINAL TAKE: The flip side of the middling Minnesota analytics is that their two losses this season have come against opponents who entered the week with a combined 16-4 record. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games against teams winning at least 75% of their games. The Patriots are dealing with some injuries on this short week headlined by star left tackle Isaiah Wynn being out for this game. 25* NFL NBC-TV Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (110) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (475) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (476). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-4) has won two games in a row after their 22-16 win against the Los Angeles Chargers as an 8.5-point favorite last Sunday. Arizona (4-6) had lost four of five games before their 27-17 upset win in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, Mexico.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The 49ers held the Chargers to just 238 yards in the victory last week — and that came after holding the Rams to 223 total yards. San Francisco leads the NFL by allowing just 280.6 total Yards-Per-Game. They hold their opponents to just 16.6 first downs per game — also the best mark in the league. The stout San Francisco defense starts with their ability to stop the run. The Niners hold their opponents to 3.43 Yards-Per-Carry and 82.7 rushing YPG — the lowest marks in the league. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. They rushed for 157 yards en route to the 387 total yards they generated against the Chargers. San Francisco has then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against NFC West opponents. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. While head coach Kliff Kingsbury was able to take care of business against the banged-up Rams, his team is absolutely riddled with injuries. Colt McCoy gets the start under center with Kyler Murray dealing with a hamstring. I think McCoy is solid — but he lacks Murray’s play-making and scrambling abilities. While he completed 26 of 37 passes last week in the win against the Rams, Arizona only gained 298 total yards in the game. Wide receiver Marquise Brown is still on Injured Reserve and tight end suffered a season-ending knee injury. The offensive line is also a mess with four protected starters from preseason camp not playing tonight. Left tackle D.J. Humphries and center Rodney Hudson have been declared out — and left guard Justin Pugh and right guard Will Hernandez have missed most of the season with injuries. The Cardinals' defense remains solid with stars line J.J. Watt and Budda Baker anchoring the unit — but they are missing some key pieces as well. Cornerback Byron Murphy is out with a hamstring and nose tackle Rashard Lawrence is on Injured Reserve with a shoulder. This is an 8-13 team since they opened 7-0 last year. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against NFC West rivals.

FINAL TAKE:  The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on Monday Night Football — and San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 straight games on Monday nights. I don’t love laying more than a touchdown to a divisional underdog — but the circumstances warrant it. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (475) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (469) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (470). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (7-2) has won five of their last six games after a 27-17 win against Jacksonville as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-4) has lost two of their last three games after a 22-16 loss at San Francisco as an 8.5-point underdog last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City generated 486 total yards last week in their double-digit win against the Jaguars. They are scoring 30.3 Points-Per-Game and generating 504.7 Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests despite some injuries in their wide receiver corps. Patrick Mahomes will be without JuJu Smith-Shuster and Mecole Hardman due to injuries — but Marquez Valdes-Scantling returns to the field tonight and they acquired Kadarius Toney from the Giants at the trade deadline who should get plenty of reps tonight. And, of course, there is nothing wrong with Travis Kelce. Mahomes has seamlessly led the transition of this offense to one that is more balanced since they traded away Tyreek Hill in the offseason. Led by Isiah Pacheco’s 82 yards on 16 carries, the Chiefs churned out 155 rushing yards last week. The rookie from Rutgers has taken over the starting tailback job and he is poised for a big game against this Chargers defense that allows 5.3 Yards-Per-Carry and has surrendered 191 rushing YPG in their last three games. The Chiefs running the football should make their offense even more dynamic since it will open up more opportunities in the passing game. I do worry about this KC offense when they become too pass-reliant. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 36.5 PPG — and they are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 road games against teams with at least a 50% winning percentage at home. Los Angeles only gained 238 yards last week in their loss to the 49ers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Quarterback Justin Herbert does hope to get his top two wide receivers back tonight after Mike Williams and Keenan Allen have practiced this week after missing multiple games apiece to injury. But much of their problems on offense have been due to the defense being on the field too long given that porous run defense. Herbert and the Chargers’ offense was only on the field for 23:01 minutes against the Niners. Los Angeles does not have much of a home-field advantage at SoFi Stadium which they share with the Rams. There may be as many Chiefs fans in the crowd tonight. The Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road against the Chargers. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (469) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (471) minus the point(s) versus the Minnesota Vikings (472). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday in a 31-28 upset loss in overtime as a 4-point favorite. Minnesota (8-1) is on a seven-game winning streak after their 33-30 upset win in overtime at Buffalo as a 6.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINT(S): Many observers have expressed surprise that the Vikings are home underdogs in this game. Well, the laptops don’t think their 8-1 record corresponds with their underlying numbers. The analytics at Football Outsiders ranks Minnesota as the 17th-best team in the league — ranking a middling 17th on offense and 19th on defense. This is a team that is solid but not spectacular in an area — their run offense ranks 10th in the league using the Football Outsiders DVOA metrics which is their best specific showing. They rank in the teens in Passing Offense, Run Defense, and Pass Defense. They are just 25th in Special Teams DVOA. They are getting outgained in yardage by -25.3 net Yards-Per-Game. All seven of their wins during this winning streak have been by one scoring possession. If they win four of those seven games, then no one bats an eye if a 5-4 team is a home dog to a 6-3 road team. The Vikings were very fortunate to leave Buffalo with a victory last week — it required Josh Allen red zone interceptions, Sean McDermott bypassing chip shot field goals on 4th downs, the Bills’ lacking a four-minute offense, and a miracle fumble recovery on the Buffalo goal line with less than a minute to go. Minnesota may be due for an emotional letdown after that huge comeback victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by six points or less. They did surrender 486 yards in that game with 175 of those yards coming on the ground. The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing 350 or more yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards. And while Kirk Cousins completed 30 of 50 passes for 357 yards, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after passing for 250 or more yards. Cousins has a 2-8 record against Dallas in his career. The Vikings are also dealing with some injuries on defense with defensive end Dalvin Tomlinson out and linebacker Za’Darius Smith questionable with a knee. Dallas, on the other hand, ranks 4th in the NFL using the DVOA metrics with the 2nd best rushing attack and the 4th best pass defense. The Cowboys have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. They did gain 421 yards against the Packers' defense — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining 350 or more yards in their last game. Dallas has averaged 431.5 Yards-Per-Game in their last two contests. And while they gave up 415 yards last week, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after giving up 350 or more yards — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. The Cowboys lead the league with 35 sacks — and Cousins is notorious for struggling if he is under duress. Dallas is staying on the road where they are outscoring and outgaining their home hosts — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 4 straight road games with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. Furthermore, Dallas has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against NFC opponents — and the Vikings are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against conference rivals. The books will likely be vindicated for treating Minnesota as closer to a .500 team this afternoon. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (471) minus the point(s) versus the Minnesota Vikings (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (320) minus the points versus Texas Tech (319). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (4-6) has lost six of their last seven games after a 20-14 upset loss at Oklahoma State as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Texas Tech (5-5) snapped a two-game losing streak in a 43-28 win against Kansas as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa State got upset for the third time this season with their loss to the Cowboys last week. It was also their fifth loss by one scoring possession. The Cyclones are still outscoring their opponents by +5.1 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +89.7 net Yards-Per-Game. They remain motivated to win their remaining two games to become bowl eligible. Iowa State should play hard for head coach Matt Campbell as they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after failing to score more than 20 points. Quarterback Hunter Dekkers struggled by throwing three interceptions last week — but the Cyclones have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after committing at least three turnovers. Iowa State has played six straight Unders due to the strength of their defense — they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing at least four straight Unders. The Cyclones are allowing only 16.7 PPG and 280.8 total YPG. They rank 2nd in the nation in Opponent Explosiveness Allowed and 5th in Points Allowed-Per-Drive. They return home for Senior Night where they are outscoring their opponents by +10.0 PPG and outgaining them by +81.5 net YPG. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 home games after losing three of their last four contests. And while the Cyclones have allowed 57 and 76 rushing yards in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 28 of their last 41 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two straight games. Texas Tech got outgained by 25 yards despite their 15-point victory. But the Red Raiders are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win against a Big 12 rival. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a point spread win — and they are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest. Texas Tech will likely have to call on backup quarterback Tyler Shough to make his third start this season with Behren Morton questionable with an ankle injury. He will have to carry a defense that surrendered 525 yards last week to the Jayhawks. The Red Raiders have given up 35.7 PPG and 465.3 YPG in their last three contests. They go back on the road where they are winless in four contests while getting outscored by -10.5 net PPG. They only score 24.3 PPG on the road this season. Texas Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 23 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa State will have the additional motivation of revenge after getting upset in Lubbock last season by a 41-38 score as a 12.5-point road favorite. The Red Raiders are still only 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings against the Cyclones. 25* CFB FS1-TV Game of the Year with the Iowa State Cyclones (320) minus the points versus Texas Tech (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (398) plus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (397). THE SITUATION: Baylor (6-4) had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 31-3 upset loss at home to Kansas State as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. TCU (10-0) remained undefeated this season with their 17-10 upset win at Texas as a 7.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: We had the Longhorns last week but got stung by the Horned Frogs playing their best defensive game of the season. TCU held Texas to just 199 total yards and made quarterback Quinn Ewers look like a freshman (and Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian as a consistent underachiever in big games). But this Horned Frogs' defense remains a concern. They had allowed at least 24 points in seven straight games before last week. They rank 113rd in Opponent Finishing Drive — and they are just 113th in the FBS in Pass Rush. They stay on the road where they are giving up 398.8 total Yards-Per-Game. The Horned Frogs clinched a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game in two weeks — but they still have tons of pressure on them since they control their fate to make the College Football Playoff. This is a prime letdown spot after the upset win against Texas. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after an upset victory as a road underdog. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by seven points or less to a Big 12 rival. And while they held the Longhorns scoreless in the first half, they have then failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. Quarterback Max Duggan completed 19 of his 29 passes but for only 124 passing yards. TCU managed just 283 total yards of offense despite being on offense for 37:22 minutes of that game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not passing for more than 125 yards in their last contest. Duggan is playing through a calf injury that is impacting his mobility and completely taking away his scrambling abilities. Baylor’s three points and 103 rushing yards were both their lowest marks in those areas since 2020. The defense got caught unprepared for the Wildcats' passing attack after an injury forced Adrian Martinez out of the game early for Will Howard who offers Kansas State a passing threat (despite lacking Martinez’s mobility). Overall, it was just a very flat effort from this Baylor team on both sides of the football. But head coach Dave Aranda has been effective in getting his team ready to play after an underwhelming effort. The Bears have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 21-4-2 ATS in their last 27 games after a point spread loss. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning two of their last three games. They stay at home at Waco for Senior Day where they are outscoring their opponents by +13.4 net PPG and outgaining them by +139.4 net YPG. Baylor has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 home games as an underdog. And while they did not force a turnover last week, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after not forcing at least one turnover in their last game. The Bears and quarterback Blake Shapen have been inconsistent this season. They have been upset three times this season by Oklahoma State, West Virginia, and Kansas State last week. But they have pulled off upsets against Oklahoma and Iowa State. Shapen should play better after throwing two interceptions last week. His turnover-worthy plays are cut in half when he does not face pressure. He should have plenty of time to find open receivers given the suspect TCU pass rush — and the Bears rank 19th in the nation in pass blocking. Baylor also ranks 20th in the FBS in Rush Success Rate — and the Horned Frogs are just 50th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. The Bears have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63-point range.

FINAL TAKE: TCU has been fortunate to play four opponents who were using backup quarterbacks due to injuries. They have rallied to win four of their ten games after fourth-quarter deficits. I thought they would get exposed last week — but we got Sarked. While it is foolish to chase losses, we don’t want to ignore good opportunities simply because of the previous week’s results either. This is a good spot for Baylor who is dangerous in the role of the underdog — so let’s attack. 25* CFB Big 12 Underdog of the Year with the Baylor Bears (398) plus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (397). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (311) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (312). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (6-3) has won six of their last seven games after their 17-10 win at home against Denver as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Green Bay (4-6) snapped a five-game losing streak with their 31-28 upset win in overtime against Dallas as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee will be without four starters tonight (one being their kicker Randy Bullock) — but I am comfortable endorsing them after getting confirmation at noon PM ET from the reports that Jeffery Simmons is expected to take the field. Simmons is their criminally-underrated defensive tackle that anchors their defense that the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders rank as the best against the run in the NFL. Simmons is listed as questionable with an ankle injury and only took part in limited practice on Tuesday — but he has not practiced for weeks but has still played at a high level in their last two games against Kansas City and then the Broncos. I suspected Simmons would play — but on a short week, I wanted further confirmation from the Thursday reports. The Titans expect quarterback Ryan Tannehill to again play tonight after he completed 19 of 36 passes for 255 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions on Sunday. The only loss for Tennessee since September 19th was their 20-17 overtime loss at Kansas City when they had to use rookie Malik Willis under center. The Titans controlled the tempo of that game — 5th-year head coach Mike Vrabel is one of the best in the business in preparing his team to impose their will on their opponent. Tennessee knows who they are and what they want to do — and it all starts with running back Derrick Henry who is playing at a very high level right now. Henry only gained 53 rushing yards on 19 carries against Denver — but that was the first time in his last six games that he did not rush for at least 102 yards. In his last six contests, he has gained 731 yards on the ground with seven rushing touchdowns and a 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry average. With his lighter workload on Sunday, he should be ready for a big performance tonight against a Packers defense now playing with Rashan Gary who suffered a season-ending torn ACL. Green Bay has been one of the worst defensive teams against the rush all season (even with Gary in the front seven). They have the worst run defense in the NFL according to the DVOA analytics. They rank 28th in the league by allowing their opponents to average 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry. It has been even worse for the Packers when playing at home as they rank second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 5.5 YPC and a whopping 171.3 rushing YPG. The Titans’ ability to run puts their defense in a position to better succeed — they have not allowed more than 17 points in five of their last six games (with the Chiefs’ field goal in overtime being the lone exception during that span). Tennessee has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread victory. The Titans have covered the point spread in seven straight games. While some bettors and handicappers may feel that is evidence of them being due for a letdown, that sounds like the gambler’s fallacy to me. The counter-take is that Tennessee remains undervalued by the betting market given their less-than-glamorous formula for success. When it comes to evidence, Tennessee has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after covering the point spread in five straight games. This is what this team does when they get on a roll under Vrabel’s leadership. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after the first month of the season. Green Bay seems more likely to be vulnerable for a letdown after the highly emotional victory against the Cowboys in the Mike McCarthy versus Aaron Rodgers Bowl last week. Playing on a short week only compounds that matter. As it is, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Green Bay found success by finally committing to running the ball for a full game. Rodgers only passed the ball 20 times — and they ran the ball 39 times for 207 rushing yards. For context, the previous fewest pass attempts that the Packers have had in a game was back in September when Rodgers threw the ball 25 times while handing the ball off 38 times — although many of those rushes came in the second half after they took a double-digit lead. Green Bay had success running against a Cowboys defense that got torched for 240 rushing yards by the Bears the previous week. It will be much harder to run the ball with success against this Titans defense (with Simmons in the middle) — especially if left tackle David Bakhtiari and/or right tackle Elton Jenkins are not at 100% or not able to play. Both tackles are listed as questionable for tonight after dealing with injuries all season — so playing on the short week is not a given. The Packers surrendered 421 yards in the victory — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Besides Gary, Green Bay will also be without linebacker De’Vondre Campbell who is out with a knee injury. The Packers' defense has been a disappointment this season — they rank 17th in the NFL according to the DVOA analytics. Green Bay has given up at least 23 or more points in six of their last seven games (and seven of their ten this season). 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Tennessee Titans (311) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (314) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (313). THE SITUATION: Tulane (8-2) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 38-31 upset loss at home to Central Florida as a 1-point favorite on Saturday. SMU (6-4) has won four of their last five games after their 41-23 win at South Florida as a 17.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE MINUS THE POINTS: Tulane should still control their fate to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game if they win their final two games. They should play better this week as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 home games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. The Green Wave did allow 468 total yards to the Knights on Saturday — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after allowing 450 or more yards in their last game. They stay at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +16.5 Points-Per-Game and outgaining their guests by +113.5 net Yards-Per-Game. Tulane’s visitors are scoring only 18.7 PPG and generating 314.0 YPG. The Green Wave have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 36 games at home. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Head coach Willie Fritz is getting reliable play from quarterback Michael Pratt. Even in the loss to Central Florida, Pratt completed 23 of 39 passes for 236 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. He has 17 touchdown passes and just four interceptions this season. He leads an offense that ranks 30th in Pass Success Rate. Tulane should have success against this Mustangs’ defense that ranks 117th in Opponent Pass Explosiveness Allowed. SMU also ranks 119th in Opponent Rush Explosiveness Allowed — and they rank 77th in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed overall. The Mustangs’ Achilles’ heel is their defense as they are allowing 32.6 PPG and 446.4 total YPG. The 23 points that the Bulls scored against them were the fewest points allowed this season — they had allowed at least 29 points in each of their previous nine contests. SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a win by 17 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after winning two in a row against conference rivals. The Mustangs have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last game.  They have covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after winning four of their last five games. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in SMU’s last 20 games in November, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of those games.

FINAL TAKE: Tulane will be motivated to avenge a 55-26 loss at SMU last season as a 14-point favorite on October 21st. The Green Wave have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Month with the Tulane Green Wave (314) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (309) plus the point(s) versus the Northern Illinois Huskies (310). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (4-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 37-21 loss to Ohio as a 2-point underdog last Tuesday. Northern Illinois (3-7) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 24-21 upset victory at Western Michigan as a 1-point underdog as a 1-point underdog last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINT(S): Miami (OH) still has the opportunity to become bowl eligible if they win their remaining two games. An injury to quarterback Brett Gabbert has held this team back — but he played his best game since returning to the field last week by completing 20 of 26 passes for 244 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions last week. The RedHawks were only on the field for 18:40 minutes last week with their defense getting torched for 362 passing yards and 556 total yards by the Bobcats. Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after giving up at least 475 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last contest. Furthermore, the RedHawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after giving up 375 or more yards in their last contest. Additionally, Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to a conference rival. And in their last 6 games after a point spread, the RedHawks have covered the point spread all 6 times. Now they go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Miami (OH) should play better on defense this week — they rank 17th in the nation in Opponent Finishing Drive. The Huskies run the ball on 60.3% of their snaps from center — but the RedHawks have a good run defense. Miami (OH) ranks 22nd in the nation by holding their opponents to just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry — and they have held four of their ten opponents to under 100 rushing yards. Northern Illinois registered their second victory against an FBS opponent last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread 5 straight games after a win on the road. The Huskies have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. And while they rushed for 220 yards in that contest, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Northern Illinois has injury issues at quarterback with the team using their third and fourth-string quarterbacks last week. In two starts this season, Evan Cremascoli has four interceptions while completing just 42% of his passes. Head coach Thomas Hammock called on Justin Lynch to quarterback the final winning drive — he ran for 83 yards with a touchdown in the game. But as a passer, Lynch is completing only 50% of his passes this season while averaging only 5.9 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Huskies are giving up 32.0 Points-Per-Game due to a pass defense that ranks 114th in the nation by giving up 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt. Gabbert should have a good game against this Northern Illinois team that has allowed 28 touchdown passes including at least one in each of the games they have played this season. The Huskies return home where they are just 1-3 this season while giving up 38.0 PPG and 418.8 total Yards-Per-Game. Northern Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games at home including their last four home contests. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 meetings against the Huskies. 10* CFB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (309) plus the point(s) versus the Northern Illinois Huskies (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Commanders (265) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (266). THE SITUATION: Washington (4-5) had their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday in a 20-17 loss to Minnesota as a 3-point underdog. Philadelphia (8-0) remained unbeaten after their 29-17 win at Houston as a 14-point favorite for Thursday Night Football on November 3rd.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMANDERS PLUS THE POINTS: If it is after Halloween, then Ron Rivera has his Washington team starting to click. The Commanders started 1-5 in 2020 before winning six of their last ten games to win the NFC East and make the playoffs. Last year, Washington started the season 2-6 before closing out the year by winning five of their last nine games. The Commanders lost four of their first five games this season — but they have won three of four and just played the one-loss Vikings well in a narrow loss last week. Washington is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record with Rivera as their head coach. It starts with the play of their defense. Even with defensive end Chase Young still out with an injury, the Commanders boast one of the best defensive lines in the league with Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne at defensive tackle and Montez Sweat at defensive end. Those are all first-round picks with both tackles products of Alabama and Sweat a former star at Mississippi State. Washington has held their last five opponents to 17.0 Points-Per-Game with no team scoring more than 21 points. They have held four of their last five opponents to no more than 324 yards — and they have held their last three opponents to 285.7 total YPG. Furthermore, the return of rookie running back Brian Robinson who missed the start of the season after being the victim of a shooting in the preseason. He ran the ball 13 times for 44 yards last week — and while those are not spectacular numbers, his presence opens up other options for the offense with Antonio Gibson who does have to then be the bell-cow running back. Additionally, Taylor Heinicke may be an upgrade at quarterback over Carson Wentz. He gives the team a spark. He is quicker to distribute the football than Wentz who takes too many sacks and melts under pressure. Heinicke is completing 63.0% of his passes for 629 passing yards in three starts with five touchdowns and three interceptions. Last year in 15 starts (16 games), he completed 65% of his passes last year while throwing for 3419 passing yards last season with 20 touchdowns and 15 interceptions while adding 313 rushing yards. Heinicke has a great connection with wide receiver Terry McClaurin who has been targeted at least eight times in each of his three starts for 16 receptions and 242 receiving yards. Heinicke is a solid game manager who avoids the trouble that buries Wentz — and this team has weapons with an energized McClaurin along with Robinson and Gibson out of the backfield. The defense will keep them in games. Washington has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a point spread win. And while they outrushed the Vikings by 81 net yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after outrushing their last opponent by 75 or more yards. The defensive metrics at Football Outsiders rank the Commanders as the second-best run defense in the league. Philadelphia is averaging 391.0 total YPG — but Washington has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams generating at least 350 YPG. The Eagles are completing 68% of their passes behind quarterback Jalen Hurts — but the Commanders have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 55 games in the second half of the season against teams completing at least 64% of their passes including eight of those last eleven circumstances. And while Philly controls the ball for 32:14 minutes per game, Washington has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams who control time of possession for at least 32 minutes per game. Philadelphia gained 360 yards in their win against the Texans last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They held Houston to just 135 passing yards in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. The Eagles are playing great — but one of their keys to success has been dominating the turnover battle which can be fickle as the season moves on. Philly has only committed three turnovers this season while enjoying a league-leading +15 net turnover margin. Now they host a Washington team that has only committed three turnovers in their last four games — and they have forced six turnovers during that stretch. The Eagles are vulnerable. They rank 27th in run defense according to the DVOA metrics. And while they are averaging 391.0 YPG, that mark has dropped by almost 50 YPG in their last three games as they have averaged only 343.0 YPG in those three contests. Philadelphia ranks only 27th in Special Teams DVOA — and the Commanders rank 7th in the league in Special Teams DVOA. Washington is allowing 5.7 Yards-Per-Play — and the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 5.6 or more YPP. Philly has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against NFC East rivals.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Eagles’ 24-8 victory at Washington on September 25th. Wentz was under center in that game — and he was awful. Robinson had yet to be medically cleared at that point of the season. But what was most interesting in that contest was that after the Eagles scored 24 points in the second quarter, the Commanders held them scoreless in the second half. Look for an even better defensive game plan in this rematch against the heavy RPO offense that Philadelphia deploys. Defending the run-pass option requires the defensive players to embrace assignment football — and that is something that can be initially uncomfortable for players trained to attack the football. Washington did a great job in stopping the run in that game with the Eagles only gaining 72 rushing yards on 30 carries. But Hurts torched them in the passing game for 340 yards with 169 of those yards going to DeVonta Smith. Rivera and defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio will have an effective rebuttal tonight. The Commanders have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games when playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Washington Commanders (265) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (263) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (264). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (5-3) has won four of their last five games after their 20-17 win at Atlanta as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (4-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 31-14 upset win at Los Angeles against the Rams as a 1-point underdog on October 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles is riddled with injuries on both sides of the ball — Joey Bosa and J.C. Jackson headline the players missing on defense while the offense is without wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. But the team is still winning with Justin Herbert finding a way to win games. Herbert has found a new reliable receiver in second-year pro Joshua Palmer who he has targeted 22 times in the last two weeks for 17 receptions and 163 receiving yards. Palmer was a third-round pick last year from Tennessee. Running back Austin Ekeler had an off day in the victory in Atlanta as he only had 71 total yards on 21 touches. But Ekeler had been doing everything for this team in the previous three weeks given the attrition at wide receiver — he has 240 rushing yards and another 169 receiving yards with four touchdowns from 65 touches in the previous three games. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road. And while they gave up 201 rushing yards to the Falcons' run-first offense, they have then covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last game. Despite the injuries at wide receiver, Herbert has completed at least 30 passes in three straight games. He has thrown the ball at least 40 times in each of their last three games — and the Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after attempting at least 40 passes in two straight games. The defense has played better lately as they have held their last three opponents to 23.3 Points-Per-Game and 325.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Los Angeles ranks 10th in the league in defending the pass according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. San Francisco is dealing with plenty of injuries of their own — especially on defense. The 49ers' secondary is without Emmanuel Moseley and Jason Verrett for the rest of the season — but the issues on their defensive line might be even worse. San Francisco will be without defensive tackles Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw tonight (after already being without defensive tackle Maurice Hurst for the season) along with defensive end Samson Ebukam. The Niners still have Nick Bosa — but those are three starters on the defensive line they will be without which changes the dynamic for a unit that was ranked 4th in the league in run defense using DVOA. The 49ers have allowed 28.7 PPG and 347.0 YPG in their last three games — much higher than the 18.4 PPG and 285.9 total YPG they are giving up for the season. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers are allowing 25.8 PPG this season — but the 49errs have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against opponents who are allowing at least 24 PPG. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (263) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (254) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (253). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (6-2) had their four-game winning streak snapped with a 20-17 upset loss in New York against the Jets as an 11-point favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (7-1) has won six games in a row after their 20-17 win at Washington as a 3-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: If Case Keenum was the starting quarterback for the Bills today, then I was prepared to endorse Buffalo (especially with the line likely dropping with that confirmation). Instead, it looks like Josh Allen will play despite his UCL injury with the team indicating their doctors do not think he can make things worse for his elbow at this point. With the point spread under six points, I am still endorsing the Bills. We want to play against this Vikings team against a high-quality opponent. Minnesota has won all six of their games decided by one possession which is propping up their record. The laptops don’t love them — they rank just 18th in the overall DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They are getting outgained by -28 net Yards-Per-Game. Now they are playing outdoors in the cold Buffalo air where they have not scored more than 24 points this season. They are averaging just 17 PPG in outdoor stadiums with the Kirk Cousins passing attack averaging a mere 201 passing Yards-Per-Game. Overall on the road, the Vikings are scoring 19.8 PPG and averaging 285.8 total YPG. They are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow win by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games on the road after a win by three points or less. They got outrushed by 81 yards to the Commanders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after getting outrushed by 75 or more yards. Buffalo is 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread loss. Allen has struggled with four interceptions in his last five quarters of play. Perhaps the elbow issue will compel the Bills to run the ball more. I do not think Buffalo’s problem is a lack of quality running backs — they need more conviction to lean on their ground game. They do return home where they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games a home — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams from the NFC. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Buffalo Bills (254) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (253). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (126) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (125). THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (6-3) got upset in the second-straight week after a 30-21 upset loss at North Carolina State as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. North Carolina (8-1) has won five games in a row after a 31-28 win at Virginia as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DEMON DEACONS MINUS THE POINTS: Wake Forest got upset the previous at Louisville by a 48-21 score as a 3-point road favorite. Turnovers have crushed this team in the two losses — they have 11 giveaways and a -10 net turnover differential in the two upset losses. The Demon Deacons have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Returning home will help with the mistakes — they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games against ACC rivals. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after playing a conference opponent. The Tar Heels have an explosive offense that has gained at least 455 yards in five straight games. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 450 yards in two straight games. Additionally, North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 450 yards in four straight games. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games. And in their last 7 games in November, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest will be motivated to avenge a 58-55 loss in Chapel Hill against North Carolina last year — and the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Winston Salem against the Demon Deacons. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (126) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (125). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (200) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (199). THE SITUATION: Texas (6-3) has won four of their last five games after their 34-27 win at Kansas State as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. TCU (9-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 34-24 win against Texas Tech as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas has lost three games this season — and they are still laying a touchdown against an unbeaten Horned Frogs team that is currently fourth in the College Football Playoff rankings. Since 1979, there had been six teams with three or more losses who were listed as a favorite against a team with a 9-0 or better record — and none of those teams were laying more than a field goal. This game presents the fifth time in the College Football Playoff era that a top-five team was listed as an underdog against an opponent not ranked in the top ten. Why are the Longhorns favored? For starters, the laptops love them. They have played well in all their games, win or loss, including impressive performances in terms of efficiency against Alabama and Oklahoma. Their three losses were by a combined 11 points. They lead the nation by generating 7.5 Yards-Per-Play — and they are 7th in the FBS by scoring 3.2 Points-Per-Drive. They are led by running back Bijan Robinson who ran the ball 30 times for 209 yards last week against the Wildcats — and Texas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The Longhorns generated 466 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. And while Texas gave up 329 passing yards to Kansas State, they have then covered the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after allowing at least 325 passing yards in their last contest. The Longhorns still have the better defense in this game — they have not allowed more than 21 points in six of their nine games this season (including the Crimson Tide). TCU sports a big-play offense that leads the nation with 13 touchdowns of 40 or more yards — but Texas has only allowed seven gains of 40 or more yards this season, ranking 3rd in the Big 12. The Longhorns also rank 9th in the nation in pass rush — and the Horned Frogs rank just 85th in the nation in pass blocking. After playing their last two games on the road, Texas returns home to Texas Memorial Stadium where they are holding their opponents to just 18.2 Points-Per-Game while outscoring their opponents by +16.6 net PPG. The Longhorns have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after playing their last two games on the road. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 home games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70-point range. Furthermore, Texas has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70-point range including five of these last six circumstances. TCU has been fortunate to play three opponents who were using backup quarterbacks due to injuries. They have rallied to win four of their nine games after fourth quarter deficits. The Horned Frogs have allowed at least 24 points in seven straight games. They rank 121st in Opponent Finishing Drives and 60th in Points Allowed Per Drive. And while Texas is vulnerable to good pass rushes by ranking 114th in the nation in Pass Blocking, TCU is just 109th in the FBS in Pass Rush. They go back on the road where they are giving up 27.3 PPG and 448.5 total YPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. And while they allowed 157 passing yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last contest. Max Duggan has been quite efficient under center for this team, the senior suffered a calf injury two weeks ago in their game against West Virginia. In the last two weeks, Duggan has only rushed for 20 yards from designed running plays with his calf seeming to limit his mobility.

FINAL TAKE: TCU’s first-year head coach Sonny Dykes was notorious for the “Sonny swoons” in November in his previous stop at SMU. His Mustangs teams from 2019-2021 had a 21-3 straight-up record before November 1st but a 4-8 record after that date. With TCU controlling their destiny to the college football playoff, the pressure is on — and their bubble is at risk of bursting in this night game in Austin where ESPN College Game Day sets up shop this week. 25* CFB Big 12 Game of the Year with the Texas Longhorns (200) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (199). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (119) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (120). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (7-2) rebounded from their loss at Central Florida with a 20-10 victory against Navy as an 18.5-point favorite last Saturday. East Carolina (6-3) has won three in a row after their 27-24 upset win at BYU as a 3-point underdog back on October 28th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati held the Midshipmen to just a field goal in the first half last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than three points in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game —  and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. The Bearcats have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not covering the point spread in four straight games. They generated 6.64 Yards-Per-Play against Navy — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last contest. Cincinnati is 4-0 at home with an average winning margin of +22.0 PPG and an average net yardage differential of +117.3 net Yards-Per-Game. They are scoring 39.0 PPG at home with a 423.8 net YPG mark. Senior quarterback Ben Bryant completed 25 of 35 passes for 299 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. The former backup to Desmond Ridder who transferred to Eastern Michigan to play for a year before returning to the Bearcats is finding his rhythm running the offense. He threw for 298 yards in the loss to the Knights two weeks ago. Cincinnati is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last contest. The Bearcats have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. East Carolina has pulled off two straight upset victories — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 41 of their last 63 games after a win on the road including failing to cover the point spread in four of these last five circumstances. They did rush for 244 yards against the Cougars last week — but they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The Pirates have generated 6.74 YPP and 7.31 YPP in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after generating at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. East Carolina has not committed a turnover in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not committing a turnover in two straight games. They face a challenge from this Bearcats pass defense that ranks 20th in the nation in Opponent’s Pass Success Rate Allowed and 7th in Havoc Rate while leading the American Athletic Conference in sacks. The Pirates stay on the road where they are allowing 411.3 YPG. East Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Furthermore, the Pirates have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in conference play — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played on a Friday night.

FINAL TAKE: East Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against the Bearcats — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at Cincinnati. 25* CFB Friday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Cincinnati Bearcats (119) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (120). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (114) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (113). THE SITUATION: Carolina (2-7) has lost five of their last six games after a 42-21 loss at Cincinnati as a 7-point on Sunday. Atlanta (4-5) has lost two of their last three games after a 20-17 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Falcons only managed 315 total yards last week in their loss to the Chargers. They are a run-first team under second-year head coach Arthur Smith — they are running the football on 61% of their offensive plays from scrimmage. Atlanta ranks 8th in efficiency on offense according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — but this run focus has them averaging only 280.5 total YPG in their four road games which is resulting in just 21.5 Points-Per-Game. The Falcons are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point spread loss. They are allowing 450.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 450 YPG over a three-game stretch. Atlanta ranks 29th in the NFL in Defensive DVOA. In their four games on the road, they are giving up 27.5 PPG and 428.5 total YPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on Thursday Night Football. Carolina will go back to Baker Mayfield under center this week after P.J. Walker only completed 3 of 10 passes last week for a mere nine yards — he had tossed two interceptions. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a loss on the road by 21 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after allowing 40 or more points in their last contest. And while they got outgained by -236 yards to the Bengals last week, they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 home games after getting outgained by at least 100 yards in their last contest. We had Cincinnati in that game last week — frankly, Carolina caught an angry Bengals team that got embarrassed on Monday Night Football by Cleveland. And while the Panthers traded away Christian McCaffrey, they did not unload their valuable assets on defense like defensive end Brian Burns. Carolina allows only 21.2 PPG when playing at home — but they are scoring just 19.6 PPG and generating a mere 285.0 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers are going nowhere this season — but these bad teams playing in front of a nationally-televised audience usually play hard especially if they come off an embarrassing loss themselves. Carolina will want to avenge a 37-34 loss at Atlanta on October 30th — and they have covered the point spread in 45 of their last 66 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they gave up at least 28 points. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Carolina Panthers (114) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (474) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (473). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (3-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 24-0 shutout win at home against Las Vegas as a 1-point underdog. Baltimore (5-3) has won three of their last four games after their 27-22 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 2-point underdog back on October 27th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: The laptops love this Ravens team despite them getting outgained by -4.6 net Yards-Per-Game this season. Injuries continue to hit this team hard. The run game will take a hit with Gus Edwards doubtful to play this week with a hamstring injury — and J.K. Dobbins is already out. That leaves Kenyon Drake and Justice Hill as the primary running backs to complement Lamar Jackson’s rushing skills (BTW, Jackson does not have a rushing touchdown in five straight games). Jackson will also miss wide receiver Rashod Bateman and tight end Mark Andrews for this game. Baltimore did gain 453 yards against the Buccaneers last week (with Edwards the primary ball carrier) — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. They are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point-spread win. The Ravens are scoring just 23.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three contests. Their run defense is vulnerable against a good running back like Alvin Kamara — they rank 24th in the league in run defense according to the DVOA metrics used by Football Outsiders. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by 14 or more points. They held the Raiders to just 183 yards of offense — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last contest. Derek Carr managed only 145 passing yards in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. The New Orleans defense has held their last three opponents to just 285.7 total YPG, They stay at home where they have held their guests to just 20.5 PPG and 296.8 YPG. They are outscoring their opponents at home by +4.3 PPG and outgaining them by a healthy +81.2 net YPG.  

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on Monday Night Football. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New Orleans Saints (474) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (471) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (472). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (5-2) has won five straight games after their 17-10 upset win at Houston as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (5-2) has won three of their last four games after their 44-23 win at San Francisco as a 1-point favorite two weeks ago.

REASONS TO THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: We won’t know who the starting quarterback for the Titans will be until kickoff with Ryan Tannehill a game-time decision with his high ankle injury. If Tannehill cannot go, then it will be rookie Malik Willis under center. Frankly, both options are limited in the passing game, especially given the lack of reliable weapons the team has at wide receiver. It will be the Derrick Henry Show tonight for the Titans — and he is in great form after rushing for 219 yards last week on 32 carries. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Chiefs may rank 3rd in the NFL by giving up only 92 rushing Yards-Per-Game, which comes from only 22 rushing attempts per game by their opponents who typically abandon their running game because they are trailing. Kansas City allows their opponents to average 4.2 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank 17th in run defense Football Outsiders’ DVOA defensive ratings. The Chiefs have allowed at least 100 rushing yards in three straight games with those opponents averaging 127 rushing YPG and 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. Tennessee beat Houston last week even with Willis under center because they controlled time of possession by being on the field for 34:48 minutes and outgaining the Texans by +193 net yards. The Titans have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point-spread victory. Tennessee can stay competitive in this game because of their defense. The Titans have not allowed more than 17 points in four straight games — and those four opponents combined for only 54 points. Their last three opponents have been held to 12.3 PPG and just 279.3 total Yards-Per-Game. The Tennessee defense ranks 10th in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings — and they have the best run defense in the NFL according to those metrics led by the criminally underrated Jeffery Simmons. The Titans lead the league in 3rd Down defense as well. Tennessee has covered the point spread in five straight games — and some bettors who commit the Gambler’s Fallacy prescribe to the belief that this is a reason to fade a team. But Tennessee has covered the points spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in five straight games. Their run game and defense travel as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Titans have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games as an underdog. If I had a nickel for every time I heard this week that Andy Reid’s teams have a 20-3 record coming off a bye. It was never mentioned that the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games coming off their bye week. Winning is one thing — covering a point spread approaching 14 points is quite another — and every square betting tonight’s game knows about Reid’s resume when he gets another week of preparation. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after playing a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Chiefs’ offense has averaged 458 yards in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after averaging at least 450 yards over a two-game stretch. And while the 49ers averaged 6.63 Yards-Per-Play against them two weeks ago, they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.0 YPP. They return home where they are scoring only 25.7 PPG and averaging just 358.0 YPG — and they have failed to cover the points spread in 4 straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Mike Vrabel’s philosophy is designed as the kryptonite to high-flying offenses like the Chiefs. Tennessee dominated Kansas City last year by a 27-3 score while gaining only 334 yards of offense. Reid has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of his last 7 coached games against the Titans. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against AFC opponents — and they have failed to cover the points spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against AFC rivals — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games in Weeks 5 through 9. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Tennessee Titans (471) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (464) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (463). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-4) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 32-13 upset loss as a 3-point favorite on Monday. Carolina (2-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 37-34 loss in overtime at Atlanta on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: The Cincinnati offense struggled to move the football on Monday with wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase out with an injury. They only gained 229 total yards in that game. But the Bengals' anemic effort probably had more to do with Myles Garrett and the inspired Browns' defense along with their shaky defensive line. Now they host a Panthers team that is allowing 26.7 Points-Per-Game. Cincinnati should get their offense going again by running the darn football — they have only gained 189 rushing yards in their last three games. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by 14 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than 14 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not gaining at least 250 yards in their last contest. They return home where they are scoring 27.3 PPG while generating 446.7 total Yards-Per-Game. They are also holding their guests to 18.3 PPG and 286.3 YPG. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They stay on the road where they are 0-3 this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (464) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (463). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (400) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (399). THE SITUATION: Georgia (8-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 42-20 victory in Jacksonville against Florida as a 23.5-point favorite last Saturday. Tennessee (8-0) is undefeated this season after their 44-6 win against Kentucky as a 10-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: This is the third meeting between the Associated Press number one and number two ranked teams in a regular season game since 2006. Only twice previously has the AP’s second-ranked team been an underdog of more than seven points. Tennessee is ranked second in the AP poll given their dynamic offense that Alabama was not able to slow down. But the Volunteers only beat a Gators team that Georgia just decimated by a 38-33 score. Tennessee needed overtime to beat a mediocre Pittsburgh team on the road earlier in the season. Now after signature wins at home against Florida and Alabama, the Volunteers look to continue their breakout season after not enjoying a ten-win season for over a decade. It may be difficult for this team to avoid getting their bubble burst now playing in a hostile environment. As it is, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win at home by 17 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. And while they held the Wildcats to just 98 passing yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last game. The Volunteers have covered the point spread in seven of their eight games this season - but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. They go back on the road for just the third time this season where they have not been as dynamic on offense. Their 37.0 Points-Per-Game and 459.5 Yards-Per-Game in their two road games is impressive — but it is still -12.4 PPG and -93.6 YPG below their season averages. The canary in the coal mine may be the 27 points they were held to at Pittsburgh against the Pat Narduzzi-coached Panthers defense (that is not elite this season). Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. The Volunteers have a good front seven that defends the run well and gets pressure on the quarterback. But the weakest unit in this game will be the Tennessee secondary which is more vulnerable after the season-ending injury to senior cornerback Warren Burrell. The Volunteers give up 301 passing YPG — and they rank 87th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. They rank 55th in the nation in Opponent Quarterback Rating. They are 126th in the nation by allowing 33 pass plays of 10 or more yards. They also rank 80th in Yards Allowed Per Drive. They are giving up 385.5 YPG when on the road. Now they play the defending national champions who lead the nation's Passing Success Rate on both standard downs and passing downs. Led by sixth-year senior Stetson Bennett at quarterback, the Bulldogs lead the nation in Success Rate on offense — and they are 5th in the nation in Points-Per-Drive. Georgia also leads the nation by scoring on 97.87% of their drives inside the red zone. Bennett has the best tight end duo at his disposal in Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington who have combined for 50 receptions and 879 yards. The Bulldogs have an emerging star at running back as well in sophomore Dijon Edwards who has averaged 7.0 Yards-Per-Carry with six touchdowns in the last three weeks. The Bulldogs have scored at least 39 points in six of their eight games. Georgia has not allowed more than 22 points in a game this season — and they have held five of their opponents to 10 points or less. The Bulldogs have the talent in the secondary to slow down the Volunteers' passing attack. Kelee Ringo is an elite man-to-man cover cornerback. Cornerbacks Kamari Lassiter and Daylen Everette often get the man-to-man assignments next to Ringo — and they have combined to allow only 12 receptions on 30 pass attempts with two interceptions. Furthermore, slot cornerback Javon Bullard and free safety Christopher Smith are the top-two graded defensive backs in man-to-man coverage skills with neither missing a tackle in the over 250 snaps they have played this season. Overall, Georgia is second in the nation by allowing 10.5 PPG — and they are giving up only 262.3 YPG. The sack rate is not nearly as high as it was last season — but defensive tackle Jalen Carter has played through injuries this season and may be ready to break out. Carter was widely considered the best player on the Bulldogs' defense last season. Georgia has looked vulnerable at times this year with listless efforts against Missouri and Kent State — but don’t forget the thorough 49-3 shellacking they gave Oregon to begin the season. I suspect the Bulldogs were simply flat in the underwhelming efforts earlier in the year. But they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a win where they did not cover the point spread in as the favorite. And while they gained 555 total yards against the Gators, they have then covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. They host this game at Sanford Stadium where they have won all four of their games by an average winning margin of +34.3 PPG. The Bulldogs' defense holds their guests to just 8.0 PPG and 204.5 YPG at home — and three of their four visitors were held to 10 points or less. They are also scoring 42.3 PPG and averaging 522.0 YPG at home. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Georgia ceiling is higher than what this Tennessee team is capable of — as demonstrated by their wins against Oregon this season as well as their double-digit victories against Michigan and Alabama in the playoffs last year. The Bulldogs crushed the Volunteers in Knoxville last year by a 41-17 score in a game where they registered six sacks and nine tackles for loss. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings against Georgia. 25* CFB SEC Game of the Year with the Georgia Bulldogs (400) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (399). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (310) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (309). THE SITUATION: Houston (1-5-1) has lost five of their last six games after a 17-10 loss to Tennessee on Sunday. Philadelphia (7-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 35-13 victory against Pittsburgh as an 11-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS PLUS THE POINTS: Houston may look overmatched in this game — but there are plenty of ways that a home underdog can cover a point spread in the two-touchdown range when playing on a short week. The Texans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They allowed 354 yards to the Titans last week — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after giving up at least 350 yards in their last game. And while they gained only 43 yards on 18 carries last week, they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. Houston can find success with their ground game tonight. While the Eagles rank 2nd in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders, Philly is only 22nd against the run according to those analytics. The Eagles have allowed 134 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last three games with each of those opponents averaging at least 124 rushing YPG and 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry. Second-year quarterback Davis Mills has a dismal 1-7-1 record in his nine career starts at home — but he has thrown 17 touchdown passes in those games.  On the other side of the ball, the Houston defense has been solid. They are holding their opponents to 22.0 PPG. They have held five of their seven opponents to 23 points or less — and they have played held four of those seven opponents to 20 points or less. Philadelphia is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. And while they generated 401 total yards against the Steelers last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Eagles did acquire Robert Quinn from Chicago last week — but he is replacing the injured defensive tackle Jordan Davis in their defensive line rotation since he was placed on Injured Reserve earlier this week. After playing their last two games at home, Philly goes back on the road where they are generating 342.0 total YPG which is over 50 YPG below their season average. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Four of Philadelphia’s victories this season have been by single digits. It is likely too much to ask of them to win this game by two touchdowns on the road and playing on a short week — especially when they will be satisfied with simply the victory. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Houston Texans (310) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (278) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (277). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (23-20) looks to snap a four-game losing streak after their 23-20 loss at Baltimore as a 6.5-point underdog last week. Cincinnati (4-3) has won four of their last five games after their 35-17 win against Atlanta as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: Cleveland has lost five of their seven games this season — but this team can’t buy themselves a break. Four of their five losses have been by three points or less — and those four losses were by a combined nine points. The Browns are outgaining their opponents by +32.0 net Yards-Per-Game.  Turnovers are killing this team as they have lost the turnover battle in four straight games. But Cleveland has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 36 games after losing the turnover battle in at least three straight games. Now the Browns host a Bengals team that has only forced eight turnovers this season — and they have played three games where they did not have a takeaway. Injuries have played a role for the underperforming defense this season — but they will have both Myles Garrett and JaDeveon Clowney tonight. Cleveland held Baltimore to just 254 total yards last week which was very encouraging for a unit that was tied for 5th in the league last season by allowing only 311.5 total YPG. Cincinnati generated 537 yards in their victory against the Falcons last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after gaining at least 500 or more yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Bengals have played two straight Overs while generating 65 combined points in their last two games — but they will now be without wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase for this contest who is out with a hip injury. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points in two straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after playing two straight Overs. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring only 22.8 Points-Per-Game while averaging just 305.8 Yards-Per-Game and getting outgained by -41.5 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be confident — they have won all four of their games against the Bengals under head coach Kevin Stefanski. Expect a close game. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Browns (278) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (276) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (275). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-1) has won three games in a row after their 24-20 win at Kansas City two Sundays ago as a 2.5-point favorite. Green Bay (3-4) has lost three games in a row after their 23-21 upset loss as a 4-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: I generally do not like to lay double-digits in the NFL (although sometimes it is appropriate). I know what happens if Green Bay covers: they finally run the ball more, they play more two RB sets with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, they use more two tight end sets and play heavy, etc). Frankly, it seems as if Aaron Rodgers is resisting these moves (see his audibles on the one-yard line in the game in London against the Giants). Head coach Matt LaFleur lacks the gravitas to overrule Rodgers’ preferences when it comes to game-planning. Rodgers is working very hard to let everyone know how his team (and the world) continue to let him down. In the meantime, he misses open receivers, freezes out receivers, and throws too many lazy passes because the play is not developing to his delicate standards. Cue: eye roll. Even if the Packers started investing in the tactics I mentioned above, I don’t think they can successfully execute them against this Bills juggernaut. Buffalo has the best-run defense in the league according to the advanced DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. The underperforming offensive line is dealing with injuries to Davi Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins questionable and likely not near 100% effectiveness. Rodgers is without his pet receivers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb for this game who are both out with injuries. Rodgers is dealing with a thumb injury that he will make sure to grab after he makes another bad mental decision — he did not practice on Wednesday with an inexperienced group of wide receivers that he needs every moment of preparation time with nurturing. The 4.2 air yards Rodgers is averaging per completion is the lowest in the NFL. The Packers are converting just 25% of their 3rd downs in their last three games. If there was a switch that Rodgers could simply flip with this challenge, why did he not do it after the upset loss against the Giants? Or the next week in the upset loss against the Jets (when I still thought they could Get Smart)? The loss to the Commanders last week just seemed like the evidence of what this team now is. I still thought the Packers would win the NFC North even after the loss of Davante Adams — but besides the decline of the offensive line and the lack of creativity using their two excellent running backs, the defense has regressed significantly. The Packers rank 25th in the NFL in Defensive DVOA. Maybe — even after all this — Green Bay steps up if they were playing at home at Lambeau. But they are on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games. They gave up 364 total yards to the Taylor Heinicke-led Commanders last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after alloying 350 total yards in their last game. Furthermore, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. To make matters worse: they are catching Buffalo almost completely healthy, rested, and off a bye. The Bills may have the best roster depth in the league — and only defensive tackle Spencer Brown is injured so David Quessenberry, a starter for Tennessee last season, seamlessly steps in. Buffalo is 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a bye week. After their statement win against Kansas City, they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up win. They are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home — and they are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. And guess what? This is just their third game at home this season after beating their previous two opponents at home by an average score of 39.5-5.0 with the Bills generating 483.0 Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: I can live with myself losing a 25* play on Buffalo tonight; however, I would be apoplectic if I followed the "sharp" play and took Green Bay, and then they got buried. That litmus test is usually effective for me. Rodgers has never been a bigger underdog in his career before tonight. He might relish in a blowout loss to let his coach and management know: “I told ya so!” (I have no idea what the “told ya” means …). 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Buffalo Bills (276) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the New York Giants (269). THE SITUATION: Seattle (4-3) has won three of their last four games after their 37-23 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. New York (6-1) is on a four-game winning streak with their 23-17 upset win at Jacksonville last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: These are two similar teams overachieving preseason expectations. Both teams coming off multiple upset victories and now have resumes that include them getting outgained in yardage on the season. I suspect it is the Giants’ bubble that gets burst with the challenging trip out west to play in Lumen Field and their “12th man” with the fans. All six of the Giants’ victories have been by one scoring possession including near-miracle finishes against Tennessee, Green Bay, and Baltimore. Rookie head coach Brian Daboll is doing a fantastic job in game managing — and he has Daniel Jones operating as a junior Josh Allen. But the offense lacks a vertical passing threat. After the season-ending injury to Sterling Shepard, the trade to Kadarius Toney earlier this week, and Kenny Golladay in the dog house, the Giants starting wide receivers are Darius Slayton and rookie slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson. Rookie tight end Daniel Bollinger is out with an injury for this game. The Giants' offensive line will also be missing rookie right tackle, Evan Neal, along with Ben Bredesen. New York is last in the NFL with only seven pass plays of more than 20 yards — the second-lowest mark in the league is then 14 pass plays of 20 or more yards. But the biggest difference between these two teams is on defense. Despite defensive coordinator Don Martindale’s blitz-heavy clever schemes, the Giants rank 29th in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ Defensive DVOA metrics. They rank 30th in Run Defense using those metrics — and they are last in the league by allowing 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry. The Pass Defense ranks 26th in DVOA — and they have registered only one interception this season. The defensive woes start on first down where they are allowing 6.7 Yards-Per-Carry and 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. New York has registered three straight upsets with their last two wins against the Ravens and Jaguars finishing Under the Total — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after playing two straight Unders. Seattle has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 home games after playing a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Seahawks may have the Offensive Rookie of the Year in Kenneth Walker who offers the team an explosive weapon in the backfield since he took over as the bell-cow back after the injury to Rashaad Penny. Walker helped Seattle run for 214 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. Quarterback Geno Smith is poised to win the Comeback Player of the Year award as now a season-veteran who has learned his craft after playing behind Philip Rivers and Russell Wilson for years. Talent was never the issue for this former first-round draft pick. Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron has done a great job with him. On first downs, Smith is completing 81.5% of his passes while averaging 8.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. On third downs needing at least seven yards, he has completed 17 of 22 passes (77.3%). After both D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett were on the injured list this week, it appears both will take the field today. The Seahawks rank 3rd in the NFL in Offensive DVOA. On defense, they are middle of the road — ranking 19th in Defensive DVOA and 17th against the run (both marks higher than the Giants). Overall, Seattle ranks 7th in overall DVOA versus New York ranking 14th (for what that is worth).    

FINAL TAKE: Home field should make the difference in this game where the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. 25* NFC Favorite of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the New York Giants (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.     

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (153) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (154). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (4-3) has lost two of their last three games after a 24-10 loss at Louisville as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. North Carolina (6-1) is on a three-game winning streak after their 38-35 win at Duke as a 7-point favorite two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Tar Heels return to action after their bye week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after their bye week. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing with seven or more days between games. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a win against an ACC rival. North Carolina is 6th in the nation in Yards-Per-Play on offense after generating 536 total yards against the Blue Devils. But they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. And while the Tar Heels have averaged 7.4 and 6.6 YPP in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after generating at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. But the problem with this team is their defense that allows 476.6 Yards-Per-Game. North Carolina ranks 120th in Opponent Rush Success Allowed and 110th in Opponent Pass Success Allowed. They get to host this game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Pittsburgh outgained the Cardinals last week by a 326 to 312 yardage margin but was done-in by a 59-yard fumble recovery defensive touchdown along with a -3 net turnover margin. But Pitt has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last contest. Quarterback Kedon Slovis threw two interceptions and only generated 158 yards in the air — but the Panthers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after gaining no more than 170 passing yards in their last game. Slovis has the opportunity to redeem himself against this Tar Heels pass defense that has allowed four of their six opponents to gain at least 245 yards in the air. Pittsburgh also has one of the best running backs in the country in senior Israel Abanikanda who has 959 rushing yards on 6.1 Yards-Per-Carry. North Carolina allows opposing rushers to average 187 rushing YPG and 4.7 YPC. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Pat Narduzzi has an outstanding pass defense that should slow down the Tar Heels freshman quarterback Drake Mayo and this potent North Carolina passing attack. The Panthers rank 9th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate and 4th in the FBS in Opponent Expected Points Added per Pass Attempt. They gained experience facing an up-tempo offense when they played Tennessee — and they held the Volunteers to only three points in the second half in that game. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Panthers (153) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (154). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Central Florida Knights (146) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (145). THE SITUATION: Central Florida (5-2) had their four-game winning streak snapped with a 34-13 upset loss at East Carolina as a 5.5-point favorite last Saturday. Cincinnati (6-1) has won six in a row after their 29-27 win at SMU last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINTS: Cbentral Florida was done-in by a -4 net turnover margin against the Pirates. They should bounce back in this critical game which will give the winner the driver’s seat to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game. The Knights have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last contest. Central Florida has one of the best rushing attacks in the nation as they generate 242.4 rushing Yards-Per-Game, ranking 6th in the nation. Ole Miss transfer John Rhys Plumlee offers head coach Gus Malzahn the dual-threat capability that he prefers in his quarterback — he is 3rd in the nation for quarterbacks by averaging 72.3 rushing yards per game. The Bearcats have struggled against mobile quarterbacks — Arkansas’ K.J. Jefferson rushed for 62 yards against them and South Florida’s Gerry Bohanan gained 117 yards against them on the ground. Plumlee has used his legs to generate 35 first downs this season. He has also averaged 328 passing Yards-Per-Game in his last three games. The Knights also bring in a stout defense against the run that ranks 11th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. This defense leads the nation in Red Zone defense by allowing only 15 scores in the 26 Red Zone trips by their opponents. UCF hosts this game at the Bounce House where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Cincinnati is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up win. But senior quarterback Ben Bryant is beginning to regress as the season moves forward. The longtime backup to Desmond Ridder has only four touchdown passes in his last three games with three interceptions. They stay on the road this week where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Bearcats are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October — and the Knights have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in October. 10* CFB Cincinnati-Central Florida ESPN Special with the Central Florida Knights (146) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (178) plus the point(s) versus the SMU Mustangs (177). THE SITUATION: Tulsa (3-4) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 27-16 win at Temple as a 14-point favorite last Friday. SMU (3-4) has lost four of their last five games after a narrow 29-27 loss at home to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN HURRICANE PLUS THE POINT(S): Tulsa has been a very reliable underdog under head coach Philip Montgomery. Since 2019, the Golden Hurricane are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog with four upset victories during that stretch — and they have covered the point spread in nine straight games when getting the points. This team needs wins to become bowl eligible so this is a critical game for them this afternoon. Tulsa has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. Led by Davis Brin at quarterback, the Golden Hurricane generated 454 yards of offense against the Owls — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. He has 16 touchdown passes this season while averaging 9.0 yards per completion.  Tulsa ranks 12th in the nation in Finishing Drives. They return home where they are scoring 37.7 Points-Per-Game while gaining 448 Yards-Per-Game — they are outscoring their guests by +10 PPG and outgaining them by +98.0 YPG. Tulsa is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home. The Golden Hurricane are tough to pass against. They rank 21st in the nation by allowing only 165 passing YPG. They rank 19th in Opponent Pass Success Rate — and their opponent completion percentage rate of 53% is 11th best in the FBS. SMU may be without Tanner Mordecai who left last week’s game against the Bearcats with an undisclosed injury that kept him out of practice on Wednesday. If he does not play, we are in great shape since the Mustangs will have to turn to redshirt freshman Preston Stone under center. He completed only 6 of 15 passes for 74 yards in relief last week. SMU only gained 279 yards against Cincinnati while getting outgained by -100 net yards. Even if Mordecai plays and completes the game, the Mustangs are in a tough spot this afternoon. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games on the road after a narrow loss by six points or less. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after the first month of the season. The Mustangs’ defense is vulnerable —  they are giving up 449 YPG on the road. They rank 98th in the nation by giving up 327 passing YPG. They also struggle against the run with opposing rushers generating 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank 123rd in the FBS by giving up 205 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight meetings against the Golden Hurricane. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Underdog of the Year with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (178) plus the point(s) versus the SMU Mustangs (177). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102) minus (or plus) the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (101). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-4) has lost four of their last five games after their 21-3 upset loss at Carolina as a 13-point favorite on Sunday. Baltimore (4-3) has won two of their last three games with their 23-20 win against Cleveland as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: What is going on with Tampa Bay — and can they pick themselves off the mat at this point? They have been ravaged by injuries on both sides of the ball. The offensive line remains a mess and the defensive backfield is banged up — but quarterback Tom Brady at least has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin back. The team misses left guard Ali Marpet who retired in the offseason and linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul who signed with the Ravens as a free agent. The quality of the roster has declined since their Super Bowl victory in 2020. Brady seems distracted with his divorce and desire to attend Robert Kraft weddings. Despite their losing record, the analytics at Football Outsiders still rank Tampa Bay as the 8th-best team in their overall DVOA ratings. They are outgaining their opponents by +22.5 net Yards-Per-Game. I think much of what is going on is simply malaise. The team started strong — despite the injuries — with victories at Dallas and New Orleans. They lost a low-scoring game at home to Green Bay. They lost at home to Kansas City after falling behind the eight-ball early by fumbling the opening kickoff. They rebounded by beating a feisty Atlanta team at home, raising their record to 3-2. They then traveled to Pittsburgh with their rookie quarterback as a 9.5-point favorite — two days after Brady attends the Kraft wedding — and they play flat in a 16-10 upset loss. They stay on the road to play at Carolina as a nearly two-touchdown favorite against a tanking Panthers team who just traded Christian McCaffrey and who were using P.J. Walker at quarterback — and they lacked energy in that embarrassing loss. Evans dropped an early touchdown pass that might have changed the tone of that game. Now after two bad upset losses, I suspect the Buccaneers rally around each other on the short week with the challenge of hosting a good Ravens team. I like how Brady is responding to the adversity by showing positive leadership toward his teammates. He does not show dramatic signs of decline like some of the other older guard of quarterbacks. He is completing 66.9% of his passes while averaging 277.4 passing YPG. His eight touchdown passes are low — but he has only thrown one interception this season. The Tampa Bay passing attack ranks 10th in the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. So, I think the Buccaneers can continue their team trend of covering the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after getting upset on the road as a favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss as a road favorite. They are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The Bucs have lost two of their three games at home — but they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The defense remains stout — ranking 5th in Defensive DVOA with top-11 marks in run defense and pass defense. In their last three games, they have held their opponents to 18.7 PPG and 293.3 total YPG. Baltimore is dealing with attrition as well with defensive end Calais Campbell out with an illness and several other starters questionable going into tonight. Perhaps left tackle Ronnie Stanley along with both starting cornerbacks Marlon Humphries and Marcus Peters all play tonight — but how effective will they be with their injuries and can they play the entire game? The Ravens outlasted the Browns despite getting outgained by a 336 to 254 yardage margin. They are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a win at home. Baltimore is only one of two teams to hold double-digit leads in all their games — but why have they blown those big leads in three of their games? They are getting outgained by -20.1 net YPG. The Ravens rank 23rd in run defense by DVOA — so perhaps this is the opponent that Tampa Bay can get Leonard Fournette going with their ground game. Baltimore has allowed four of their last five opponents to rush for at least 101 yards. The Ravens have not scored more than 23 points in four straight games — and they are averaging only 328.3 total YPG in their last three contests. The passing game has not been as effective with the team failing to gain more than 195 yards in the air in four straight games. Statistically, there was a correlation between Lamar Jackson putting up bigger numbers with Rashod Bateman being healthy and on the field. Bateman was considered the key piece for the offense to move on from Marquise Brown who they traded to Arizona. But Bateman has struggled with drops before missing two games with an injury. He returned in the Browns game and caught four balls for 40 yards — but Jackson only had 120 passing yards in the game. The Ravens have played three of their last four games at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in October. Look for Brady and company to find a way to win this critical game for them. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102) minus (or plus) the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (476) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (475). THE SITUATION: New England (3-3) is on a two-game winning streak after their 38-15 upset win at Cleveland as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Chicago (2-4) has lost three in a row after their 12-7 loss to Washington as a 1-point underdog two Thursdays ago on October 13th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: While many observers pre-judged Bill Belichick’s decision to have Matt Patricia, those of us who were willing to just wait and evaluate the evidence as it develops (and Week One does not offer enough “evidence”) are now not handcuffed by the need to confirm prior assumptions. And guess what? The Patriots’ offense is starting to purr under Patricia’s guidance — even with rookie Bailey Zappe at quarterback. After only scoring 24 combined points in their first two games, New England has scored at least 24 points in four straight games while averaging 28.8 Points-Per-Game during that stretch. They are getting it done by running the football behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL — they are generating 146.5 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last four games. In their two home games, they are averaging 160 rushing YPG on 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry. That level of productivity affords the Patriots the luxury of not having either of their young quarterbacks have to do too much in the passing game — but the team has passed for over 300 yards in two of their last four games. Belichick has yet to name a starter for tonight — but it was Mac Jones working with the first team on Saturday, so that is who I expect gets the nod. Frankly, it does not matter as both are capable in this offense. Zappe completed 24 of 34 passes for 309 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. While Buffalo and Kansas City get most of the attention with their dynamic passing attacks, it is teams like Philadelphia, Dallas, Seattle, and the New York Giants who rank in the Football Outsiders' top ten in offensive DVOA with run-first philosophies on offense. Now they host a Bears’ team that ranks 26th in Run Defense DVOA according to the Football Outsiders metrics. New England are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games after a win by 14 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. Additionally, they are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. And while they generated 399 yards of offense against the Browns, they are then 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, the Patriots are 48-20-2 ATS in their last 70 games in October — and they have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 52 games against teams with a losing record under Belichick’s leadership. In regards to the Bears, it is too easy to criticize the Bears management for not getting Fields more weapons — these observers fail to appreciate that first-year general manager Ryan Poles inherited a salary-cap disaster courtesy of previous general manager Ryan Pace which will take two years to address. Fields is getting better after not being coached well last season under “offensive” head coach Matt Nagy. But this team lacks weapons in the passing game while Fields works behind one of the worst offensive lines in the game. And the Bears' defense has regressed — they rank 21st in the league using the Defensive DVOA metrics. In their three games on the road, the Bears are allowing 25.3 PPG and 392.0 YPG. Chicago is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a loss. They did gain 392 yards last week - but they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They held Washington to just 204 total yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t love laying more than a touchdown in the NFL — but there are times when it is appropriate. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New England Patriots (476) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (474) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (473). THE SITUATION: Miami (3-3) has lost three in a row after their 24-16 loss at home to Minnesota as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Pittsburgh (2-4) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 20-18 upset victory against Tampa Bay as a 10-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS MINUS THE POINTS: The Steelers had not scored more than 20 points in any of their games during their four-game losing streak — they were scoring just 13.5 Points-Per-Game during that losing streak. And they only gained 270 yards against the Buccaneers last week — so it is not as if they discovered the keys to the offensive engine with rookie Kenny Pickett under center. But after an embarrassing 38-3 loss to Buffalo the previous week, head coach Mike Tomlin demanded a better effort from his team against Tom Brady and company. But the Steelers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point-spread win. Now they go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games. Pittsburgh is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against fellow AFC rivals. They rank only 24th in Offensive DVOA according to the analytics at Football Outsiders — and they cannot get their ground game going to help out Kenny Pickett or Mitchell Trubisky as they rank second-to-last in Rushing DVOA. In their three games on the road, they are scoring 14.3 Points-Per-Game. Miami gets Tua Tagovailoa back from concussion protocol for this game which should help get their offense clicking in the Red Zone. The Dolphins to did generate 458 yards of offense last week against the Vikings — and they held Minnesota to just 234 total yards. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last contest. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Dolphins. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Miami Dolphins (474) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (455) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (456). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (3-2-1) has won three of their last four games after their 34-27 win against Jacksonville as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (3-2) returns from their bye week on a three-game winning streak after their 21-17 victory at Washington two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis gets back running back Jonathan Taylor for this game to offer some balance for this Colts offense — and that should put quarterback Matt Ryan in an even better position to succeed. After a slow start to the season behind a struggling offensive line, head coach Frank Reich and the veteran Super Bowl quarterback have put things together in the passing game. Ryan completed 42 of 58 passes for 389 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions in the win against the Jaguars. The emergence of rookie wide receiver Alec Pierce has provided Ryan with a viable receiving option to complement Michael Pittman. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win against a divisional rival. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after winning two of their last three games. And while they ran the ball only 16 times for 45 yards last week, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not rushing for more than 90 yards — and getting Taylor back will be a boon for this offense. The Colts' defense did hold the Jags to just 136 passing yards last week — and they are 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. Indy ranks 10th in the NFL by allowing only 323.7 Yards-Per-Game — and they are third in the league in 3rd Down defense. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in October. The Colts are dealing with some injuries with Shaq Leonard not ready to return to linebacker this afternoon and defensive end Kwity Paye injured — but the Titans have their share of missing starters as well. Left tackle Taylor Lewan and top linebacker Harold Landry III are out the year with injuries. Linebacker Zach Cunningham and right guard Nate Davis are also out for today’s game. The Titans gained only 241 yards in their win against the Commanders — and they got outgained by -144 net yards after surrendering 385 total yards to Washington two weeks ago. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. The draft day trade of wide receiver A.J. Brown has left the offense too one-dimensional. The team signed Robert Woods as a free agent and drafted rookie Treylon Burks from Arkansas — but he is injured and out for today’s game. Ryan Tannehill completed 15 of 25 passes against the Commanders for only 181 yards. Their 136 net passing yards (after sacks) was their third-lowest passing yardage effort this season. They are an unreliable favorite who have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games laying up to three points. Despite their winning record, they are getting outscored by -4.2 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -112.6 YPG  due to an anemic offense gaining only 278.2 YPG. They only generate 25.4 yards per drive on offense while surrendering 37.4 yards per drive — and that -11.75 net yardage difference per drive is last in the league. Indianapolis, on the other hand, has outgained their opponents by +26 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have won their last four games against the Colts after their 24-17 win at Lucas Oil Stadium as a 4-point underdog on October 2nd. But Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against Tennessee at their Nissan Stadium. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (455) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (374) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (373). THE SITUATION: California (3-3) has lost two games in a row after their 20-13 upset loss at Colorado in overtime as a 15.5-point favorite last Saturday. Washington (5-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 49-39 win against Arizona as a 14.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: California has now lost three times to an opponent that was 0-5 or worse on the season under head coach Justin Wilcox — and they scored only 7.7 Points-Per-Game in those embarrassing losses. In 2018, the Golden Bears responded with a 42-point win at Oregon State. Last year, they responded with a 30-point win at Stanford. Cal has simply not been a reliable favorite under Wilcox — but they have been money in the underdog role. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 24 of their 34 games as an underdog — and they have pulled off 13 upsets in those contests. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games as an underdog getting seven or more points including in their 24-17 loss at Notre Dame as a 13.5-point dog earlier this season. They have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home as an underdog getting seven or more points. Cal should play better tonight to redeem themselves from their bad loss at Colorado inspired by playing under an interim head coach. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 7 games after not scoring at least 20 points in their last game, they have covered the point spread in 6 of those games. The Golden Bears have won all three of their games at home this season with an averaging winning margin of +14.0 PPG. Their offense wakes up when playing at home where they are scoring 34.3 PPG and generating 461.3 total Yards-Per-Game — and they are outgaining their guests by +50.6 net YPG. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. They gained 595 total yards against the Wildcats last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. First-year head coach Kalen DeBoer has quickly fixed the offensive woes for the Huskies in the last few years — and bringing in transfer quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. was a great move. Washington is scoring 42.1 PPG — but they now face a Cal defense that ranks 25th in the nation in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate. But the problem for the Huskies now is the complete collapse of what was once a consistently strong defense. Losing three players to the NFL from last year hurt — but this unit ranks 115th in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate and 102nd in Opponent Pass Success Rate. Washington goes back on the road for the third time in their last four games where they are winless this season with two losses by more than seven points. They have allowed their home hosts to score 42.5 PPG and generate 448.0 YPG against them. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Wilcox will remind his team that they lost to the Huskies on the road last season by a 31-24 score. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games in conference play. 25* CFB Pac-12 Underdog of the Month with the California Golden Bears (374) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (373). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Eastern Michigan Eagles (363) plus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (364). THE SITUATION: Eastern Michigan (4-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 39-10 upset loss to Northern Illinois as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. Ball State (4-3) has won three games in a row after their 25-21 win against Connecticut as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Eastern Michigan threw a five-yard interception that the Huskies returned for a touchdown in the opening score of the game — and it was all downhill from there. The Eagles had a -2 net turnover margin in the game — but they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Eastern Michigan has also covered the point spread in 24 o their last 35 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after an upset loss at home to a Mid-American Conference rival. They only gained 29 rushing yards in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards. Now they play a Cardinals team that is allowing 190 rushing yards per game. The Eagles go back on the road where they have already upset Arizona State and Western Michigan this season. They have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. Ball State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. They gained 213 yards on the ground against the Huskies — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for 200 or more yards in their last game. They only gained 147 yards in the air — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not passing for over 170 yards in their last game. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Ball State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Eastern Michigan Eagles (363) plus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (364). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (303) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (304). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (2-4) has lost four of their last five games after their 30-26 loss to Cincinnati as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Arizona (2-4) has lost two in a row after their 19-9 upset loss at Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans has lost four of their six games despite outgaining their opponents by +39.5 net Yards-Per-Game this season. Three of their four losses were decided by one-scoring possession. They outgained the Bengals last week by a 399 to 348 yardage margin in the loss. Turnovers have been a problem — with many of them coming from interceptions from Jameis Winston. The Saints’ special teams are a mess as well with them ranking 31st in the DVOA rankings of special teams units at Football Outsiders. But they play a Cardinals team that ranks just 29th in special teams. And while head coach Dennis Allen has not named a starting quarterback, reports indicate that he will likely tap Andy Dalton as his starter once again this week with Winston not 100% with a back and ankle injury that kept him limited in practice on this short week. Dalton has thrown only one interception in three games this season with a 1.2% interception rate for his 82 passes. That is what this Saints team needs right now — play smart, lean on their defense, and avoid mistakes. They are ravaged with injuries (but so are the Cardinals). Wide receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are out along with tight end Andrew Trainman. Starting left guard Andrus Peat is also out. Winston would not have the skill players he would need to take advantage of his arm strength while perhaps needing to be savvier given the offensive line issues. Dalton is the better option on a short week — and he did work with the starting offense on Tuesday. Furthermore, offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael is going a nice job incorporating Taysom Hill as a weapon at quarterback or running back to throw off opposing defenses — something this Cardinals team will be susceptible to on a short week. The Saints are also without cornerback Marshon Lattimore. The good news is that rookie wide receiver Chris Olave is expected to play. Even better news: running back Alvin Kamara is heating up with 52 touches in the last two games. New Orleans ranks second in the league in Rushing DVOA according to Football Outsiders. The Saints have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing two of their last three games. They have also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 58 games on the road after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. They are outgaining their opponents by +32.0 net YPG in their three road games — and they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 54 games on the road. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after an upset loss as a road favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss as a road favorite. The injury list for the Cardinals is even worse than the Saints for this game on a short week. Wide receiver Marquise Brown is out for at least a month with a foot injury. Quarterback Kyler Murray does get DeAndre Hopkins back from his six-game suspension — but that is probably not a net-plus switch. Arizona is tied for last in the league by averaging only 4.1 air yards per completion — and Brown is more of a deep threat than Hopkins is at this point in his career. Running back James Conner is questionable with a rib injury. Additionally, the offensive line is hit hard with two starters out: left guard Justin Pugh is out the season with a knee, and center Rodney Hudson is out tonight. These issues on the offensive line are one of the reasons why Murray is struggling — but he does seem to be too often bailout out of the pocket and relying on his physical talent which can generate amazing highlight reels while not being the optimal route for efficiency on offense. The Cardinals are generating 19.0 PPG along with 346.0 YPG — and they rank 26th in Offensive DVOA and 26th in the passing game specifically which is an indictment of both Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury. If Kingsbury follows through with his consideration of giving up play-calling duties, then I am not sure what is left for the guy who had a losing record at Texas Tech before falling forward with this gig after getting sacked by his alma mater. The injuries on defense are also significant with linebacker Dennis Gardeck out and cornerback Trayvon Muller and safety Jalen Thompson questionable. The Cardinals rank 20th in Defensive DVOA — and they are allowing 28.0 PPG and 394.7 YPG in their three home games where they are getting outscored by -11.3 PPG. Arizona is winless in their three home games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games at home when favored.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against Arizona. The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. After a 7-0 start last season, Arizona has lost 11 of their last 17 games with everything seeming to be moving in the wrong direction. In an expected close game, I find Dalton, Kamara, and the Saints' defense along with Dennis Allen as more reliable. 25* NFC Game of the Month with New Orleans Saints (303) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (275) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (276). THE SITUATION: Denver (2-3) has lost two games in a row after their 12-9 loss in overtime as a 3-point favorite two Thursdays ago on October 6th. Los Angeles (3-2) has won two games in a row after their 30-28 win at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: I will be holding my nose taking this Denver team — but I suspect we will see an inspired effort from a desperate team who comes off the longest possible break in-between games save for the bye weeks. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after playing on Thursday in their last game. Denver did outgain the Colts by a 375 to 306 margin. Russell Wilson has been a big disappointment this season which was a surprise to me — but while I am skeptical of his long-term potential, he is still a savvy veteran who knows he needs to step it up. He claims some of his struggles are due to an arm injury — and he did get a shot in his right lat last week so perhaps he will have more zip again on his long ball. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after a loss by three points or less. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Denver is playing better on defense than I expected. They were third in the league last year by allowing 18.9 Points-Per-Game — but I thought that number was misleading by the ball-control offense under head coach Vic Fangio. But the Broncos are allowing just 16.0 PPG this year while limiting their opponents to 289.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Furthermore, while ranking just 20th in the defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders last season, they currently sit second in the league in those analytics this year. Denver has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games on the road as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Chargers gained 465 total yards against the Browns with 238 of those yards on the ground. But this team has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has scored at least 30 points in their last two games while playing three straight Overs. But they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after playing three straight Overs. This team is dealing with several crushing injuries. Joey Bosa is on injured reserve hurting the defense that is allowing 28.5 PPG at home. Left tackle Rashawn Slater is out the year with a biceps injury. Wide receiver Keenan Allen was declared out for tonight as he recovers from a hamstring injury that has kept him out so far this season.

FINAL TAKE: Home teams at SoFi Stadium do not enjoy much of a home-field advantage — the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Los Angeles is an unreliable favorite — they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Look for this divisional rivalry to be a close game. 25* AFC West Game of the Month is with the Denver Broncos (275) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (274) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (273). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (5-0) remained the lone unbeaten team this week with their 20-17 victory at Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Dallas (4-1) has won four in a row after their 22-10 upset win at Los Angeles against the Rams as a 5.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: The laptops love this Philadelphia team. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders rank them as the second-best team in the league behind Buffalo. They rank 5th in both offensive DVOA and defensive DVOA according to their metrics. They enjoy the best turnover ratio in the NFL by a mile — their 11 takeaways are the most in the league and their two giveaways are the fewest in the league. Their RPO-heavy offense catches most teams off-guard while exposing defensive rosters designed to stop pass-heavy offenses using three or more wide receivers. They lead the NFL by controlling the time of possession for 33:53 minutes per game. But they combine a ball-control offense with explosiveness — they lead the league with 44 “Big Plays” (a rushing gain of 12 or more yards or a passing gain of 16 or more yards). They are outscoring their opponents by +9.4 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +125.4 net Yards-Per-Game. I am anxious to see the Eagles play against teams that made deep playoff runs last year — but they host a division rival with a backup quarterback tonight. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow win by three points or less. They return home where they have outgained their opponents by +202.0 net YPG this year. Philadelphia is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Dallas only gained 239 total yards last week against the Rams — and they were outgained by -84 net yards in pulling off that upset victory. A +3 net turnover margin including a defensive touchdown played a big role in that win against the defending Super Bowl champions who are facing an existential crisis with the injuries on their offensive line. Dallas has been very fortunate with their schedule after looking hapless in their opening game at Tampa Bay where they only scored a field goal. They got Cincinnati the next week who was dealing with offensive line cohesion issues along with Joe Burrow still rusty after his appendectomy limited his preseason work — and the Bengals almost rallied to win in the second half. They then got the New York Giants, with all due respect to the job Brian Daboll is doing in his first year with that dysfunctional organization. That win was followed up with a game against Washington and Carson Wentz who melts under defensive pressure (and Dallas’ pass rush is elite). This will be the Cowboys’ third game on the road in the last four weeks — a stiff challenge particularly for backup quarterback Cooper Rush. While the faux quarterback controversy provides national headlines for owner Jerry Jones, remember that general manager Jones cut Rush in late August before reclaiming him a day later when the entire league passed on him. Rush has benefited from playing with a lead for almost his entire stint since Dak Prescott got injured. He will likely have to play from behind tonight. The Cowboys rank 29th in the league in third-down offense with Rush under center. To compound the matter, he split time this week in practice with Prescott who flirted with playing in this game. The Dallas defense has helped them play two straight Unders — but the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 road games after playing two straight Unders.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia will have revenge on their mind against this Dallas team that toasted them 41-21 and then 51-26 in their two meetings last season. Admittedly, that 51-26 loss in Week 17 was against an Eagles team resting key starters with their wildcard game already set. Still, surrendering 92 points and losing by 45 combined points has certainly been a strong point of emphasis all offseason. If Philly wants to make a deep playoff run, then taking care of the Cowboys is high on their agenda. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (274) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (260) minus the points versus the New York Jets (259). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (3-2) looks to rebound from a 27-22 upset loss to the New York Giants as an 8.5-point favorite in London last Sunday. New York (3-2) pulled off their second-straight upset victory with a 40-17 upset win against Miami as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Green Bay controlled most of their game with the Giants — they held a 20-10 lead at halftime — but sleepwalked through the second half overconfident that they would always find a way to pull the game out against Daniel Jones. But Aaron Rodgers audibled out of likely successful running plays at the goal line to telegraph his little slant throw that everyone knows he likes — and the Giants’ defense successfully batted the last pass down to steal the game. Players called out Rodgers afterward — and maybe what this team needs is some internal tension to raise the level of urgency. As it is, Rodgers has led the Packers to nine straight wins after losing their last game with the average winning margin being by more than 14 points — and he has nine touchdown passes without an interception in those nine games. Green Bay has been resilient when facing (regular season) adversity — they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a point spread loss. The Packers have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss. Returning home to Lambeau Field will make a big difference where Green Bay has a 24-3 record since the beginning of the 2019 season. Rodgers’ personal record as the starter at Lambeau is 23-1 in his last 24 with 15 straight wins. The Packers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. New York has pulled off two straight upset wins after stunning Pittsburgh on the road two weeks ago. We had the Steelers in that game — Mitch Trubisky gets benched at halftime for Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh run defense collapsed late in that game when the Jets seemed satisfied to just burn time and kick a field goal to force overtime. The fortunate breaks continued last week with Teddy Bridgewater getting injured for the Dolphins in his first series of the game leaving Miami to have to play 7th-round draft pick, Skylar Thompson, at quarterback after not practicing with the first-team offense all week. But remember that it was still a 19-17 game five minutes into the fourth quarter before mistakes by Thompson contributed to the Jets scoring three late touchdowns to produce a final score that was not indicative of how close the game was. New York has skated by facing some of the least threatening quarterbacks in the league: Jacoby Brissett, Trubisky/Pickett, Bridgewater/Thompson. In their two games against Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, the Jets’ defense has surrendered six touchdown passes with only one interception. The Jets should get exposed in this one. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win by three or more touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. Having had action against the Jets the last two weeks, I have seen some of the sketchy plays that second-year quarterback Zach Wilson has made that do not translate into the box score. He benefited from facing an injury-depleted Dolphins secondary — but the assignment is much tougher against this angry Packers defense. New York is still banged up at tackle having to rely on fourth and fifth stringers. Wilson has a 3-6 record in his nine career starts on the road. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 road games against teams wit ha winning record at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Execution should lead to the Packers pulling away in this one. The Jets rank 28th in 3rd Down Defense even with that rogue's gallery of quarterbacks they have played in three of their games — and here comes Rodgers with a chip on his shoulder after last week. The Green Bay defense has held their opponents to converting just 3 of 23 third downs of seven or more yards.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. This is a “relax” game for Rodgers against this Jets’ team playing over their head. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (260) minus the points versus the New York Jets (259). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (170) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (169). THE SITUATION: Utah (4-2) looks to bounce back from their 42-32 upset loss at UCLA as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. USC (6-0) continued their unbeaten start to the season with a 30-14 win against Washington State as an 11.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Ken Whittingham certainly had an attentive group of players this week after the upset loss to the Bruins where they surrendered 502 total yards. Whittingham claimed his team got out-toughed by UCLA — so expect a bruising response by this team against the Trojans.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (184) minus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (183). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (3-3) has lost three games in a row after their 49-0 loss to Texas in the Cotton Bowl as a 7.5-point underdog in the Red River Rivalry last Saturday. Kansas (5-1) lost their first game of the season last week in a 38-31 loss to TCU as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Oklahoma defense has been atrocious the last three weeks by giving up 145 combined points in losses to Kansas State, TCU, and then the Longhorns. But the Sooners are still laying up to 10 points in this game? It looks very easy to take the upstart Jayhawks — but I smell a trap. Oklahoma expects to get Dillon Gabriel back at quarterback for this game coming back from the concussion protocol — he has practiced all week and just needs to continue to not show lingering symptoms. The Sooners have been outscored by a 70-7 margin without Gabriel — getting him back will help both sides of the ball since the offense will be able to sustain long drives. Oklahoma was absolutely humiliated last week and head coach Brent Venables is being torched in the national media. But he did not forget how to coach defense after serving for years as the defensive coordinator at Clemson. I expect to see some improvement even if the six transfers the team brought in on that side of the ball have not worked out. The Sooners have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a loss by 20 or more points. And while Oklahoma only gained 195 yards last week without Gabriel, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not gaining at least 275 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. Gabriel ranks 23rd in the nation in Total QBR this season. He has 11 touchdown passes and another eight “Big Time Throws” as graded by Pro Football Focus with zero interceptions nor turnover-worthy plays. He is complemented by a rushing attack that ranks top-ten in Expected Points Added per play. The Sooners return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 19 points. Kansas is likely without their starting quarterback Jason Daniels who suffered a shoulder injury last week that was described as likely season-ending. There has been talk that he could still play this week — but his effectiveness would be very much in doubt. Backup Jason Dean was solid in relief last week —  but he had only six touchdown passes and six interceptions as the starter last year which is one of the reasons why he lost the starting job to Daniels. The Jayhawks have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a loss by seven points or less to a Big 12 rival. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Kansas has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after allowing 37 or more points. The Jayhawks’ defense remains the weak link under head coach Lance Leipold. In their two games on the road, Kansas has allowed 36.0 Points-Per-Game and 473.5 total Yards-Per-Game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 road games with the Total set at 63 or higher. This team is also 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: This Oklahoma team was considered one of the top-five teams in the country just a month ago. While those accolades were not justified, this team is not as bad as how they have looked in their last three games. Expect a spirited “circle the wagons” effort from them against a Kansas team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Norman. 10* CFB Kansas-Oklahoma ESPN2 Special with the Oklahoma Sooners (184) minus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (183). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Commanders (105) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Chicago Bears (106). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-4) lost for the fourth straight time on Sunday in a 21-17 loss at home to Tennessee as a 1-point underdog. Chicago (2-3) has lost two in a row after a 29-22 loss at Minnesota as a 10-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMANDERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Washington has been a mess this season with Carson Wentz being responsible for seven giveaways with six interceptions including his pick at the goal-line to spoil a potential game-winning drive against the Titans. The Commanders dominated everything but the scoreboard in that game by gaining 385 yards and only giving up 241 yards. That is a good sign for them moving forward as they are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing no more than 250 yards in their last contest. Furthermore, Washington has covered the point spread in 4 straight games when on a four-game losing streak. Chicago rallied against an over-confident Vikings team last week before Minnesota pulled away. The Bears only gained 271 yards in that contest while surrendering 429 total yards. Chicago is 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a point spread victory. They return home where they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games at home as an underdog. This is a limited Bears offense right now with Justin Fields being asked to pass the ball only 88 times in five games this season. Chicago ranks 30th in Passing DVOA offense according to the metrics at Football Outsiders. The Bears want to run the ball — but the Commanders are tough against run by holding their last three opponents to 2.6 Yards-Per-Carry and just 80 rushing YPG. They rank 6th in Run Defense DVOA. Additionally, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in October — and they are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games on Thursdays.

FINAL TAKE: Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Bears — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when playing them in Soldier Field. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Washington Commanders (105) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Chicago Bears (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (480) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (479). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (3-1) comes off a 41-31 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 2-point underdog last Sunday night. Las Vegas (1-3) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 32-23 win against Denver as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City demonstrated that their offense will continue to roll even without Tyreek Hill by overwhelming an outstanding Buccaneers last week. Patrick Mahomes is doing a great job in distributing the football to open receivers — and head coach Andy Reid is willing to dial up the running game against defenses that playing the in-vogue two high safety shell schemes to take away big plays in the passing game. The Chiefs ran for 189 yards against the stout Tampa Bay run defense while generating 417 total yards. They have scored at least 27 points in three of their four games while scoring 41 or more points twice. They are second in the NFL by averaging 32.3 Points-Per-Game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. And while they allowed 376 total yards to the Buccaneers last week, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Raiders will struggle to run the ball against the Chiefs' defense that leads the NFL by allowing only 66 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Admittedly, that number is lower because opponents abandon the ground game — but their opponents are averaging just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry and they rank third in run defense DVOA at Football Outsiders. The 23 points that Las Vegas gave up to the Broncos were the fewest points they have allowed this season. The Raiders’ defense is allowing 25.0 PPG and 357.0 total YPG. They did hold Denver to just 299 total yards — but the Broncos only had 45 offensive plays in the game. They allowed Denver to average 6.64 Yards-Per-Play a week after allowing Tennessee to average 6.69 YPP the previous week. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 6.0 YPP — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing two at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. The Raiders did control the clock for 34:52 minutes against the Broncos last week while generating 25 first downs — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a dominating effort where they gained at least 34 first downs while having their offense on the field for at least 34 minutes. If — and when — Las Vegas falls behind in this game, they will not have the luxury to try to keep Mahomes off the field by controlling the time of possession.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against the Chiefs — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against them at Arrowhead Stadium. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (480) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (477) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (478). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (2-2) won their second-straight game with their 27-15 victory against Miami as a 4-point favorite two Thursdays ago. Baltimore (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 23-20 loss to Buffalo as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bengals have addressed the sack issues that plagued them in their opening two games. After getting sacked an unsustainable 13 times in their first two games, Joe Burrow has only been sacked three times in his last two games for just 20 yards. Cincinnati invested heavily to upgrade their offensive line in the offseason by bringing in center Ted Karras from New England, right guard Alex Cappa from Tampa Bay, and right tackle La’El Collins from Dallas. It may have taken some time after not enough work in the preseason for this group to start developing cohesion. But the other factor was that Burrow was simply holding on to the ball too long looking for his dynamic win receivers to get open. He has done a better job over the last two games in getting the ball out faster. Don’t underestimate the impact of Burrow’s appendectomy in August in slowing down his getting up to speed. But now over his last three games, Burrow has six touchdown passes and no interceptions while posting a 107 Passer Rating. He completed 20 of 31 passes for 287 yards last week — and Cincy has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where they gained at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Now Burrow plays a limping Ravens’ pass defense that he torched for over 900 passing yards against in his two games against them last year. Baltimore is last in the NFL this season by surrendering 315 Yards-Per-Game. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. They gained 371 yards against the Dolphins last week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bengals did give up 378 yards to Miami in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after allowing 375 or more yards in their last contest. Despite that yardage allowed, Cincinnati has been impressive on defense this season. They rank 8th in the league by holding their opponents to just 327.5 total Yards-Per-Game — and the five touchdowns they have conceded is the second-fewest in the NFL. The Bengals are 4th in the NFL by holding their opponents to 86 rushing YPG — and they are 4th in the league in 3rd Down defense. They are holding their opponents to just 17.5 PPG. Cincinnati goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games as an underdog getting up to seven points. Baltimore only gained 295 total yards last week in a showdown with the Bills that many observers expected to be a scoring fest. The Ravens miss Marquise Brown at wide receiver who now plays for Arizona — he accounted for 91 receptions and 1008 yards last year. Rashod Bateman drops too many passes and has not been able to emerge as a legitimate number-one option. The passing attack now runs almost exclusively through tight end Mark Andrews — but the lack of threatening options on the outside is one of the reasons why the Ravens are averaging only 217 passing YPG. Baltimore has lost five straight games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by up to seven points. The Ravens are also 11-27-2 ATS in their last 40 games in October. As seemingly always, injuries have hit this team hard. Baltimore has a long list of players out impacting their depth — and starting left tackle Ronnie Stanley and Bateman are out for tonight’s game. On defense, defensive tackle Michael Pierce is out and cornerback Marcus Peters is questionable.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals scored 41 points in both their victories against the Ravens last year. While Baltimore has been planning for revenge all off-season, Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games against AFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against AFC North rivals. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Baltimore against the Ravens. In Burrow, I Trust -- he should keep this game close (even if he does not lead his team to victory). 25* AFC North Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (477) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (465) minus the points versus the New York Jets (466). THE SITUATION: Miami (3-1) returns to the field after their 27-15 loss as a 4-point underdog at Cincinnati back on September 29th. New York (2-2)  has won two of three after their 24-20 upset win at Pittsburgh as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS MINUS THE POINTS: I needed to get the final active/inactive list for Miami before endorsing this play. The good news is that wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both active and expected to play after both names popped up on the injured list this week. Left tackle Terron Armstead is also active. The bad news is that the Dolphins’ elite cornerback, Xavien Howard, is inactive — but we can live with that against Zach Wilson. Tua Tagovailoa is also out — but that was expected and Teddy Bridgewater is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league. Bridgewater has 63 career starts in the NFL. He completed 14 of 23 passes for 193 yards with a touchdown in relief last week against the Bengals. Miami is 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Dolphins passed for 294 yards last week, they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. They did give up 371 yards to the Bengals — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against AFC East rivals. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Second-year quarterback Zach Wilson demonstrated some moments of brilliance in the fourth quarter last week — but the Steelers also displayed some exasperating defense late in that game (to ruin our play on them where at least a push seemed salvageable before they seemingly let the Jets score on late running plays even though it looked like New York was settling for a field goal to send the game into overtime … still bitter). But Wilson had plenty of shaky moments including two interceptions where his judgment was not good at all. I still worry about his lack of seasoning in the preseason after his injury — and the Jets are still on their fourth and fifth offensive linemen (if my math is right) after getting decimated by injuries at the position. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games against AFC East opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Miami is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games against the Jets — and they have covered 4 straight times against them playing against them at MetLife Stadium. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Miami Dolphins (465) minus the points versus the New York Jets (466). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (409) minus the points versus the New Mexico Lobos (410). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (3-3) has lost two straight games after their 33-16 loss at home to San Jose State as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. New Mexico (2-3) has lost two in a row with their 31-20 loss at UNLV as a 14-point underdog last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Craig Bohl will have Wyoming ready to play tonight following the loss to the Spartans. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss to a Mountain West Conference rival. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not scoring at least 20 points in their last game. Additionally, Wyoming has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two of their last three games. And while they allowed 456 total yards to San Jose State, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after giving up at least 450 yards in their last game. Bohl is in a rebuild this season after losing 12 players in the transfer portal. But he has built a consistent program in his nine seasons in Laramie — and they have two solid victories against Air Force and Tulsa this season. New Mexico has one of the worst offenses in the nation once again this year after ranking 130th last year by scoring just 12.2 Points-Per-Game and 234.9 total Yards-Per-Game. This year, the Lobos are scoring 20.4 PPG and averaging 244.8 total YPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a straight-up loss. They are also 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a point-spread victory. Senior quarterback Miles Kendrick completed 13 of 25 passes for only 163 yards — and New Mexico gained only 277 total yards in the game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games after not passing for more than 170 passing yards in their last contest. They return home where they are only generating 283.6 total YPG — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home. One of their home victories this season was against Maine, an FCS opponent. They did not gain 300 total yards in their home games against Boise State or UTEP.

FINAL TAKE: Bohl will use the memory of their 14-3 upset loss at home to the Lobos last season as a 19.5-point underdog on October 23rd. But New Mexico has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games in October — and they are 10-26-1 ATS in their last 37 games against conference opponents. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Wyoming Cowboys (409) minus the points versus the New Mexico Lobos (410). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (346) plus the points versus the Kent State Golden Flashes (345). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (2-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 24-20 loss at Buffalo as a 3-point underdog last Saturday. Kent State (2-3) has won two of their last three games after their 31-24 win in overtime against Ohio as a 13-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami (OH) outgained the Bulls last week by a 359 to 278 yardage margin but could not pull out the game. The RedHawks have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The team is dealing with the likely season-ending injury to quarterback Brett Gabbert last month, but they are getting solid play from Aveon Smith under center. He completed 14 of 26 for 119 yards last week — but his biggest contributions were with his legs as he scored two touchdowns and rushed for 142 yards on twelve carries. Miami (OH) returns home to play just their second game in front of their home fans all season. The RedHawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 home games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63-point range. Kent State comes off a huge offensive performance where they gained 736 total yards. Quarterback Collin Schlee completed 24 of 37 passes for 398 yards in the victory last week — but the Golden Flashes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 passing yards in their last game. And while they gained 7.67 Yards-Per-Play against the Bobcats, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after generating at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Kent State has won both their games at home — but they are winless in their three games on the road while getting outscored by -24.0 Points-Per-Game. The Golden Flashes are scoring only 15.0 PPG on the road while averaging just 305.7 YPG. They have allowed their three home hosts to generate 495.0 total YPG. Granted, playing at Washington, Oklahoma, and Georgia is a brutal non-conference schedule — but Kent State’s season stats are propped by a 63-10 win at home against Long Island. The Golden Flashes have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Miami (OH) will be motivated to avenge a 48-47 loss at Kent State last year in a pick ‘em contest. The Golden Flashes have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against the RedHawks — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing at Miami (OH). 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Underdog of the Month with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (346) plus the points versus the Kent State Golden Flashes (345). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (302) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (301). THE SITUATION: Denver (2-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 32-23 loss at Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog. Indianapolis (1-2-1) looks to rebound from their 24-17 upset loss to Tennessee as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver had allowed only 36 combined points in their first three games before a desperate Raiders team exposed them for 32 points on Sunday. The Broncos have bounced back to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games at home after a loss on the road to a fellow AFC West rival. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. For the season, Denver is still only giving up 17.0 Points-Per-Game and 284.8 total Yards-Per-Game. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record on the road. Indianapolis gained 365 total yards in their last upset loss to the Titans last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards run their last game. And while the Colts have played all four of their Under the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing at least three straight Unders. Matt Ryan is struggling under center with his new team. Indianapolis is last in the NFL by scoring only 14.3 PPG — and they are generating just 339.8 total YPG. The Colts offense has not scored more than 20 points in a game all season.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are hit hard with injuries for this game being played on a short week. Denver will miss running back Javonte Williams — but at least they have Melvin Gordon along with capable veteran backups in Mike Boone and now Latavius Murray who they signed off the New Orleans practice squad. The Colts will be without running back Jonathan Taylor which is devastating for them since he may be the best back in the league — and backup Nyheim Hines is really more of a third-down back. Indianapolis is also dealing with some significant injuries on defense with linebacker Shaquille Leonard and safety Julian Blackmon out for this game. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow AFC rivals — and Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games for Thursday Night Football. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (302) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (280) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (279). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-2) looks to bounce back from an 11-10 upset loss at Denver as a 1.5-point favorite last Sunday night. Los Angeles (2-1) has won two in a row after their 20-12 win at Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: San Francisco was held back last week by a -3 net turnover margin on the road against the Broncos. Another full week of practice should help Jimmy Garoppolo get back up to speed with the offense after not even working with his teammates in the preseason after Trey Lance was given the starting quarterback job. He was solid last week by completing 18 of 29 passes for 211 yards with a touchdown and an interception — but some areas could be cleaned up. The 49ers have rebounded to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 31 games after suffering an upset loss on the road as the favorite. Additionally, San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at Levi’s Stadium. Despite their losing record, San Francisco remains a very good team on both sides of the ball. They lead the NFL with only two three-and-out drives all season. On defense, they are the only team in the league to be holding their opponents to under 4.0 Yards-Per-Play. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow NFC West rivals. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after winning two games in a row. The Rams did allow the Cardinals to gain 365 yards in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after giving up at least 350 yards in their last contest. And while they averaged 7.5 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 6.5 YPP in their last contest. The reigning Super Bowl champions have been sloppy to start the season — they have seven giveaways in their three games. Matthew Stafford has been the main culprit with five interceptions already — and this comes off a year where he threw 17 interceptions which were tied for the most in the NFL (and remember he had four pick-sixes last year). The injuries are mounting up for the Rams as well. They will be missing two starting offensive linemen in left guard David Edwards and center Brian Allen — and this group had already taken a big step back with the retirement of left tackle Andrew Whitworth in the offseason. The defense is down several defensive backs including starting cornerback Troy Hill. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco swept the two regular-season meetings between these two teams — but they will be motivated to avenge their 20-17 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams in the NFC Championship Game. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against the Niners — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at San Francisco. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games on Monday Night Football. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (280) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (279). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (277) plus the point(s) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (278). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-1) looks to rebound from their 20-17 loss at Indianapolis as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (2-1) comes off a 14-12 upset loss to Green Bay as a 2.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINT(S): We were on the Colts last week — and we were fortunate that Kansas City did not run away with that game. The Chiefs had several blunders on special teams including a muffed punt, a missed extra point, a missed 34-yard field goal, and a failed fake field goal attempt. Kansas City held Indianapolis to only 259 total yards — and they outgained them by +46 net yards despite only having their offense on the field for 26:28 minutes of that game. The Chiefs’ defense is playing quite well by holding their opponents to 21.7 Points-Per-Game along with 314.0 total Yards-Per-Game. They are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Kansas City has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Tampa Bay is getting healthy again at wide receiver with Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, and Russell Gage all expected to join Mike Evans on the field after he was suspended for last week’s game. But those injured players have not practiced this week so the passing game may not be in synch quite yet for Tom Brady. The Buccaneers have not scored more than 20 points this season — they are scoring just 17.0 PPG while averaging 297.3 total YPG. The issue for the Bucs is their beat-up offensive line. After the surprise retirement of All-Pro left guard Ali Marpet, the line is without Ryan Jensen, Aaron Stinnie, and Josh Wells — and Donovan Smith was limited in practice this week. They are using rookie Luke Goedeke at left tackle and the depth is razor thin. Tampa Bay cannot get their rushing game going as they have only gained 106 yards on the ground in the last two weeks after getting a mere 36 rushing yards last week. The Buccaneers do have a great defense that has only given up 27 points all season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. They are also 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams not giving up more than 17 PPG — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (277) plus the point(s) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (261) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (262). THE SITUATION: Seattle (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 27-23 upset loss at home to Atlanta as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Detroit (1-2) comes off a 28-24 loss at Minnesota as a 5.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: The Lions have become America’s Loveable Losers after appearing on HBO’s Hard Knocks — and gamblers are currently infatuated with them after they have covered the point spread in all three of their games this season. But this is a team that is decimated with injuries at their skill positions on offense. Running back D’Andre Swift along with wide receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown (who has been fantastic) and D.J. Chalk are all out for this game. Quintez Cephus and Josh Reynolds will be the starting wide receivers for Detroit in this one. Quarterback Jared Goff has played very well at home at Ford Field for the Lions — but he now faces a Seahawks team that is quite familiar with him during his time in the NFC West with the Los Angeles Rams. While he has a 6-4 record in his ten starts against Seattle, he has only thrown in touchdown passes and has 11 turnovers in those games. He has been sacked once every 19 pass attempts against a Pete Carroll defense. Detroit has been scoring points in bunches — the problem is that they are giving up even more points. The 31.0 Points-Per-Game they are giving up is last in the league — and they are also last in the NFL by giving up ten touchdowns in the Red Zone. All three of their games have seen at least 52 combined points scored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after playing three straight games where 50 or more combined points were scored. Seattle has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss — and they are a decisive 39-19-4 ATS in their last 62 games after a straight-up loss under Carroll. Additionally, the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two in a row. We had the Seahawks last week and lost the play — despite their outgaining the Falcons by a 420 to 386 yardage margin. A late penalty when Seattle was driving may have been the difference in that coin flip game. Now they go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams who lack a winning record at home. And while the Seahawks have allowed 189 and 179 rushing yards in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after giving up 150 or more rushing yards in two straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit has not been favored by more than three points in over three years — and this remains a franchise that has failed to cover the point spread in 54 of their last 85 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (261) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (264) minus the points versus the New York Jets (263). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 29-17 loss at Cleveland as a 3.5-point underdog on Thursday, September 22nd. New York (1-2) looks to rebound from their 27-12 loss at home to Cincinnati as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS:                                    Pittsburgh was only on the field for 23:51 minutes last week against the Browns for that Thursday Night Football game — and that game was closer than the final score indicated with Cleveland scoring a final touchdown on a fumble recovery that they scooped into the end zone. The Steelers actually had a 14-13 lead at halftime. Now after pulling off their Week One upset at Cincinnati, Pittsburgh needs this game to even their record at 2-2. With the extra days off from last week to rest and prepare for this contest, expect a spirited effort from head coach Mike Tomlin’s group. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a double-digit loss to a fellow AFC North rival. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Mitchell Trubisky completed 20 of 32 passes for 207 yards in the loss with no interceptions. What was encouraging for Pittsburgh in this game is that he threw the ball downfield a bit more. While I am expecting Trubisky to embark on a Hall of Fame career anytime soon, this is a quarterback with a career 30-23 record as a starter. Frankly, I worry more about offensive coordinator Matt Canada — the Steelers need to get their talented receiving corps more involved in the game and trust Trubisky (something Tomlin called on after their loss to New England in Week Two). Now after that short week, I expect a better offensive plan — and I also expect Pittsburgh to lean into deploying Trubisky’s mobility. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in October under Tomlin. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games at home at the newly renamed Acrisure Stadium. The Jets get second-year quarterback Zach Wilson back under center after he was out for about six weeks with the knee he injured early in the preseason. In the short-term, New York is swallowing a downgrade at quarterback going from the veteran Joe Flacco to Wilson — especially since the former BYU quarterback has been not practicing after not playing in the preseason. This situation is compounded by the decimation this team has already faced with injuries on their offensive line. The Jets are already on their fifth and sixth-string offensive tackles (in a league where depth at tackle is already lacking — for the good teams). Wilson was raw last year after not playing in a pro-style offense in college. His 69.7 Passer Rating was the worst in the NFL. He played better late in the season — but he needed the preseason to continue his development. He still has issues with his mechanics, footwork, decision-making, accuracy, handling the pass-rush, and his decision-making. Did I forget anything? I understand why the Jets are putting him out there even with their significant issues at offensive line, they need to give him time to grow — but if they wanted to win games in the short-term, the veteran Flacco would be out there, even with his limitations in his 15th season. Are the Jets going to ask Wilson to throw the ball 52 times as they did with Flacco last week? That is a recipe for a disaster — the kid is going to make mistakes. Wilson was 3-10 as a starter last year with only nine touchdown passes and 11 interceptions. He was sacked 44 times behind a better offensive line — he got sacked every 9.7 pass attempts. New York has thrown the ball at least 45 times in each of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after attempting at least 40 passes in two straight contests. The Jets are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE:  The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at Pittsburgh. New York continues their rebuild after 11 straight seasons not making the playoffs versus a Steelers team that has not had a losing season under Tomlin. Maybe Wilson improves this season — but on the road with that offensive line after missing most of the preseason, it is going to be bumpy. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (264) minus the points versus the New York Jets (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (160) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (159). THE SITUATION: Tulsa (2-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 35-24 loss to Ole Miss as a 21-point underdog last Saturday. Cincinnati (3-1) has won three in a row after their 45-24 win against Indiana as a 16.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN HURRICANE PLUS THE POINTS: Tulsa almost pulled the upset against a quality SEC opponent — they were only outgained by a 462 to 457 yardage margin to the Rebels. The Golden Hurricane have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. They have a gunslinger under center in quarterback Davis Brin who completed 7 of 13 passes for 112 yards sharing time last week. The Bearcats can be passed on — they rank 93rd in the nation in Opponent Passing Success Rate Allowed. Tulsa stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 52 games against teams with a winning record. After losing at Arkansas, Cincinnati has padded their statistics with an easy schedule that has included Miami (OH), Kennesaw State, and then the Hoosiers last week. The Bearcats have averaged 329.3 passing Yards-Per-Game in those three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after a three-game stretch. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: Since 2019, the Golden Hurricane has been a point-spread underdog 15 times. They have pulled off the upset victory in four of those games while covering the point spread in 13 of those 15 situations — and they have covered the point spread in nine straight games as a dog. Those two-point spread losses were coin flip losses as well: They lost to Mississippi State in their bowl game in 2020 by two points as a 1-point dog and they lost to Tulane in 2019 by 12 points as a 10-point underdog. They have been getting +16, +13.5, and +22.5 points (last season) against Cincinnati in their last three meetings against them — but they have lost by just 3, 11, and then 8 points respectively in those games after a 28-20 loss in their house last year. The Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Tulsa. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (160) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (159). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Toledo Rockets (196) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (195). THE SITUATION: Toledo (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 17-14 upset loss at San Diego State as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Central Michigan (1-3) looks to rebound from a 33-14 loss at Penn State as a 28-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS MINUS THE POINTS: Toledo returns home after a tough two-game stretch on the road that started with a trip to Columbus to play Ohio State. The Rockets outgained the Aztecs by a 376 to 282 yardage margin but still managed to lose the game. Toledo has bounced back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after a two-game road trip — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after losing their last two games on the road. They are also 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. While the Buckeyes embarrassed them by scoring 77 points, the Rockets have held their three other opponents to just 9.0 Points-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Mid-American Conference opponents. Central Michigan is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a loss. They only gained 88 yards on the ground against the Nittany Lions — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after not rushing for more than 100 yards in their last contest. The Chippewas’ offense may be dependent on the arm of quarterback Daniel Richardson but he is completing only 57.6% of his passes while averaging just 6.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Central Michigan defense is giving up 32.2 PPG — and they rank 84th in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate. The Chippewas have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in October under head coach Jim McElwain.

FINAL TAKE: Toledo should be fired up for this game after getting upset in Muskegon last year by a 26-23 score as a 5-point road favorite against Central Michigan on October 16th last season. The Chippewas have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against the Rockets — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 trips to Toledo. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Month with the Toledo Rockets (196) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (195). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arkansas Razorbacks (192) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (191). THE SITUATION: Arkansas (3-1) looks to rebound from their 23-21 loss to Texas A&M as a 1-point underdog in Dallas last Saturday. Alabama (4-0) comes off a 55-3 win against Vanderbilt as a 40.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAZORBACKS PLUS THE POINTS: Alabama has been vulnerable in true road games as of late. Head coach Nick Saban’s team has only one victory by more than a field in their last five games played in a hostile environment which includes their 20-19 win at Texas earlier this season as a three-touchdown favorite. Two of those narrow victories were the result of a late Crimson Tide score despite them being on average an 18.5-point road favorite in those games. Saban’s decisive edge in recruiting over the last decade has taken a step back with the rise of Georgia competing for those players and now the new era of NILs. This year’s team does not have the same elite talent at wide receiver as they have enjoyed in the past — and the offensive line is a work in progress. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 20 or more points. They went into halftime with a 31-3 lead over the Commodores — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than a field in the first half of their previous game. They rushed for 228 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for 200 or more yards in their last game. And while the Tide has 118 points in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after scoring 42 or more points in two straight games. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 4 road games when favored by 14.5-21 points, they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of those games. Arkansas outgained the Aggies last week by a 415 to 343 yardage margin but an 82-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown for Texas A&M made the difference in the game. The Razorbacks also fumbled on the Aggies’ goal-line to blow a touchdown opportunity. They had a 70% post-game win probability so the result was a major disappointment for head coach Sam Pittman’s team. But there is nothing like the opportunity to upset Alabama to make things right again. Arkansas has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after winning three of their last four games. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog. The Razorbacks have the skill players on offense that can move the ball against the Crimson Tide defense. Running back Raheim Sanders is averaging 6.1 Yards-Per-Carry behind a big offensive and experienced offensive line — and he is averaging 3.9 yards after contact. Junior quarterback K.J. Jefferson is a dual threat who led the team to a 9-4 record last year with six wins against bowl teams. The defense has already registered 20 sacks — and they rank fourth in the nation in Passing Downs Sack Rate. This is an area where Alabama is vulnerable as they rank 87th in the FBS in Passing Down Sack Rate Allowed.

FINAL TAKE: Arkansas will be confident in this game after only losing by a 42-35 score as a 20.5-point underdog last year against Alabama in Tallahassee. The Razorbacks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against SEC opponents. 10* CFB Alabama-Arkansas CBS-TV Special with the Arkansas Razorbacks (192) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (191). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (110) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (109). THE SITUATION: Boise State (2-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 27-10 upset loss at UTEP as a 16.5-point favorite on Friday. San Diego State (2-2) comes off a 17-14 upset win at home against Toledo as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINT: Boise State head coach Andy Avalos fired his offensive coordinator Tim Plough after that loss to the Miners with the offense only generating 177 yards of offense. Senior quarterback Hank Bachmeier entered the transfer portal after the game as well looking for a new school to play for while not burning a year of eligibility by playing a fifth game this season. Frankly, both moves may be addition by subtraction. Avalos brought in former Boise State head coach Dirk Koetter (1998-2000) as his new offensive coordinator. Koetter is a professional offensive coach with extensive NFL as an offensive coordinator and three years as the head coach for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He should have an immediate impact on streamlining the offense from the up-tempo Air Raid system Plough had installed last season. The quarterback will be 6’6 freshman Taylor Green who completed 19 of 27 passes for 155 yards earlier this season against Oregon State. Expect an inspired effort from this Boise State team that got embarrassed last week. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss by 14 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a loss by 17 or more points. Additionally, the Broncos are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They are also 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games after not scoring more than 20 points. San Diego State got outgained by a 376 to 282 margin against the Rockets last week — but they took advantage of a +3 net turnover margin to pull off the upset. The Aztecs forced four turnovers last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after enjoying a +3 or better turnover margin in their last contest. San Diego State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. Quarterback Braxton Burmeister only passed for 65 yards last week, going 13 of 24. He is averaging just 3.6 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — and he has only 230 passing yards for the entire season. The Aztecs are dead last 131st in the nation in Passing Success Rate — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not passing for at least 170 yards in their last game. They are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Mountain West Conference.

FINAL TAKE: San Diego State pulled off a 27-16 upset win at home as a 3-point underdog against the Broncos last season on November 26th — so Boise State will be looking for revenge. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 15 games at home when favored by up to seven points. 10* CFB San Diego State-Boise State FS1-TV Special with Boise State Broncos (110) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (102) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (101). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (1-2) comes off a 27-12 victory in New York against the Jets as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (3-0) remained undefeated this season after their 21-19 upset victory at home against Buffalo as a 4-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS: Miami comes off the emotional high of beating the Bills just four days ago — and they are ripe for a letdown for this game on the road being played on a short week. It’s rookie head coach Mike McDaniel’s first game preparing his team to play on a short week for Thursday Night Football. Even more challenging is that the defense was on the field for a whopping 90 plays in the Miami heat. If the Dolphins were playing on Sunday, then the defensive players would probably not even be practicing on Thursday — but now they are playing another game on this quick turnaround. As it is, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games after upsetting a fellow AFC East rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after upsetting a division rival as a home underdog. With the Dolphins' offense only on the field for 19:20 minutes of that game, they got outgained by the Bills by a 497 to 212 yardage margin — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games on the road after getting outgained by 100 or more yards in their last game. Despite their 3-0 record, Miami is only generating 355.3 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have only gained more than 307 yards in one of their games. They are surrendering a whopping 413.7 total YPG — more than 76 YPG than they did last season when they ranked 15th in the NFL. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 45 games after allowing at least 400 YPG in their last three games including failing to cover the point spread just once in the last five circumstances when those conditions applied. Tua Tagovailoa has played great in the McDaniel offense getting the ball out to his playmakers — but he is far from 100% for this game dealing with a back and ankle injury. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49-point range. Cincinnati was flat against Pittsburgh in their opening game before falling behind at halftime against Dallas by a 17-3 score in their second game. But in their last six quarters, they have looked like the team that reached the Super Bowl by outscoring their opponents by a 41-15 margin. They should build off their momentum from their victory last week as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Bengals have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing two of their last three games. And while their game with the Jets finished Under the 45.5 point Total, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after playing an Under in their last game. Despite Joe Burrow not playing in the preseason as he recovered from his appendectomy and despite the continuing problem with sacks with Burrow getting mauled for 13 sacks in the first two games of the season, this team would still be 3-0 if not losing both of their first two games on the final play of the game. Burrow only took two sacks last week — and he has four touchdown passes and no interceptions in his last two games. He completed 23 of 36 passes last week for 275 yards — and Cincy has covered the points spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. The Bengals are outscoring and outgaining their opponents this year — and their defense has played well by allowing just 18.3 PPG and 310.7 total YPG. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams with a winning record. They enjoy a significant situational edge against a Dolphins team coming off an emotional high but likely to be gassed by the second half tonight. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (102) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (489) plus the point(s) versus the New York Giants (490). THE SITUATION: Dallas (1-1) looks to build off their 20-17 upset victory against Cincinnati as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-0) pulled off their second-straight upset win in a 19-16 victory at home against Carolina as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINT(S): New York opened their season with a 21-20 upset win at Tennessee in a game when they stole the game by converting a late 2-point conversion. But both of their wins have been by a combined four points. They were outgained by a 275 to 265 margin in yardage last week against the Panthers despite being on offense for 35:57 minutes of that game. The Giants averaged a meager 3.96 Yards-Per-Play last week. They only scored six points in the first half against Carolina after getting shutout in the first half against the Titans. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not scoring more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. Additionally, the Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. They return home where they are just 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 games at MetLife Stadium. New York has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow NFC East opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range. Dallas outgained the Bengals last week by a 337 to 254 yardage margin despite only having their offense on the field for 26:12 minutes of that game. While I am not buying the hype from the owner/general manager Jerry Jones about how good Cooper Rush is, it is hard to deny that he has been steady when given the opportunity to play under center for this team. He completed 19 of 31 passes for 235 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. In his five games last year which included one start, he completed 30 of 47 passes for 422 yards with three touchdown passes and only one interception. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore did a good job of helping to put Rush into a position to succeed by getting the ball to playmakers. Dallas has a great rushing combination in Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. The Cowboys go on the road for the first time this season — but they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games away from home. Furthermore, Dallas has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games against NFC East rivals — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in September. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 appearances on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Rookie head coach Brian Daboll has done a nice job in motivating his team and getting them to believe in themselves — but I expect the bubble to burst tonight against a team with a better overall roster. Dallas has won nine of their last ten meetings with the Giants. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against them — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against them in the Meadowlands. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (489) plus the point(s) versus the New York Giants (490). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (488) plus the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (487). THE SITUATION: Denver (1-1) got their first win of the season with their 16-9 victory at home against Houston as a 10.5-point favorite. San Francisco (1-1) comes off a 27-7 win against Seattle as an 8.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLSU THE POINTS: The problem for Denver is getting their offense going under rookie head coach Nathaniel Hackett. Denver is last in the NFL in Red Zone offense. They have yet to score a touchdown in their six Red Zone drives. They are scoring just 16.0 PPG — but they are generating 391.5 total Yards-Per-Game so moving the ball is not the problem. The Broncos are outgaining their opponents by +148.0 net YPG. Wide receiver Jerry Jeudy has been limited in practice sessions this week but it looks like he will attempt to take the field tonight. Denver ranked third in the NFL last year by allowing only 18.9 Points-Per-Game — so their continued good play on defense should continue. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 38 of their last 60 games on the road after a win by two or more touchdowns. They held the Seahawks to only 36 rushing yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games on the road after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last game. The 49ers did gain 373 yards of offense against the Seahawks last week with Jimmy Garoppolo playing most of that game after the injury to Trey Lance. Garoppolo was solid by completing 13 of 21 passes for 154 yards against a Seattle defense that did not game plan for him — and I do expect him to be rusty after not taking part in even the most basic of preseason practices with the team when the organization was planning on trading him. The Niners' game plan will be to run the football with them averaging 182 rushing YPG this year. But the offense will be without both Elijah Mitchell and rookie third-round draft pick Tyrion Davis-Price to injuries meaning Jeff Wilson will be the primary ball carrier. He averaged only 3.7 Yards-Per-Carry last year. San Francisco has held their first two opponents to 204 and 216 total yards this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Hollywood Sports regulars already know that I was not as high on Denver and Russell Wilson as others early in the season. But I think the hype train against their rookie head coach Nathaniel Hackett has now gone overboard. Like Indianapolis and Tennessee earlier today, I expect the Broncos to have corrected a lot of their problems in this third week of the season — and I do not think it will be a seamless transition for the Niners back to Garoppolo after he was dumped and did not practice with the team in the offseason. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (488) plus the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (487). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Commanders (476) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (475). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-1) looks to rebound from their 36-27 upset loss at Detroit as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (2-0) has won their first two games of the season after their 24-7 victory against Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMANDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Washington is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss. And while they allowed 425 yards to the Lions, they are then 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. The Commanders did game 396 yards in the losing effort — and they are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Carson Wentz should be motivated to play at his best in this game in this revenge contest against the organization that drafted but then abandoned him. He is having a great season so far this year. He is second in the NFL by averaging 325.0 passing Yards-Per-Game — and his seven touchdown passes is tied for first in the league. Washington returns home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Philadelphia has been the talk of the league all week after their dominant win against the Vikings on Monday Night Football — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a short week on Sunday after a game on Monday. The Eagles are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a victory by 14 or more points. They are also 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Philly goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: Washington lost both games to the Eagles last season — but both games were played late in the season in December and January when Philadelphia had transitioned to their run-first heavy RPO system. It is a certainty that Washington head coach Ron Rivera dedicated hours and hours devising schemes to address this unique offensive attack — look for plenty of cornerback and safety blitzes from the Commanders to force Jalen Hurts into quick run/pass decisions this afternoon which is something Minnesota failed to do earlier this week. The Eagles are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against their fellow and familiar NFC East rivals. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Matinee with the Washington Commanders (476) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (472) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (471). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (0-1-1) looks to rebound from their 24-0 upset loss at Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (2-0) returns to action after their 27-24 win against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 4-point favorite for Thursday Night Football last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis has been a train wreck so far this season. They entered the fourth quarter of their opening game at Houston trailing by a 20-3 score before scoring 17 points in the fourth quarter to force overtime — but they fired their kicker when he failed to convert the potential game-winning kick in that game as they settled for the tie (ie: half-win). The Colts then managed only 218 yards in getting shutout last week against the Jaguars. Their -3 net turnover margin did not help their cause last week. All of the sudden, Matt Ryan looks old — he has four interceptions and been involved with five fumbles. Injuries have played a role with linebacker Shaquille Leonard out and the wide receiver corps depleted last week. The good news for head coach Frank Reich is that he expects both Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce to return to action after being out last week — so getting these targets back will help Ryan. While the 37-year-old’s arm strength has declined, he did still complete 67.0% of his passes last year for 3968 yards for a bad Atlanta team. After getting shutout last week, this is a “put-up or shut-up” game for this team. Look for the Colts to play their best game of the season against the Chiefs. This remains a team that was 9-8 last year while outscoring their opponents by +5.8 Points-Per-Game. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss to an AFC South rival. Additionally, the Colts have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. Furthermore, Indy is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. This team needs to show more urgency earlier in the game to not dig themselves a hole and require them to abandon Jonathan Taylor and their running game. The Colts only rushed for 54 yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not rushing for at least 90 yards in their last game. After playing the first two games of the season on the road, Indianapolis returns home for their first game of the year at Lucas Oil Stadium where they are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games when an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Kansas City was in danger of getting upset at home last week before they picked off a Justin Herbert pass at the goal line and returned it 99 yards for the game-winning touchdown. That was a 14-point swing. The Chiefs got outgained, 401-319, in the victory. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a narrow win by a field goal or less at home. And while Kansas City has scored 71 combined points in their first two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. I don’t have many bad things to say about the Chiefs — as I expected, Patrick Mahomes is doing a great job spreading the ball around in the post-Tyreek Hill era. But stopping the run can be an issue for this team — they ranked 21st in the league by allowing 117.6 rushing YPG last year. The defense will be without linebacker Willie Gay for this game as he serves out a suspension. Defensive end Mike Danna did not practice on Thursday and is questionable to play with a calf — and he is one of the team’s best run defenders. Running teams like the Colts are the type of team that can give Kansas City problems. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. They shave also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City just wants to leave Indianapolis with the win rather than cover the point spread — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games against teams with a winning record. The Colts have looked as bad as any team in the league in the first two weeks — but they still may have the best roster in the AFC South and this is an urgent situation for them. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (472) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oregon State Beavers (376) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (375). THE SITUATION: Oregon State (3-0) has won their first three games this season with their 68-28 win against Montana State as a 17.5-point favorite last Saturday. USC (3-0) has won their first three games this year after their 45-17 win against Fresno State as an 11.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEAVERS PLUS THE POINTS: We were on Fresno State last week — and they were in play to cover the point spread as a double-digit dog before their NFL-bound quarterback, Jake Haener, got injured and left the game about halfway through the contest. I still consider the Trojans prime-fade territory with all the hype being placed on this team. USC is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while they rushed for 233 yards in that game, the Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they are 5-13-2 ATS in their last 20 games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in Pac-12 play. This will be their toughest test of the season playing on the road in a tough environment against the Beavers. Oregon State has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by 20 or more points. Behind quarterback Chance Nolan, the Beavers have a high-powered offense of their own that should score plenty of points against a defense that allowed Stanford to put up 28 points and 441 total yards against it. Oregon State is scoring 45.7 PPG while putting up at least 34 points in all three of their games — including a victory against Boise State. The Beavers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 31 points in two straight contests. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home. Additionally, Oregon State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Oregon State upset USC last year by a 45-27 score as a 10.5-point underdog in the Coliseum. Now the Trojans travel to Corvallis where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against the Beavers. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Oregon State Beavers (376) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (375). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (380) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (379). THE SITUATION: Washington State (3-0) continued their unbeaten start to the season with a 38-7 victory against Colorado State as a 17-point favorite last Saturday. Oregon (2-1) comes off their best game of the season in a 41-20 victory against BYU as a 3.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Ducks may be due for a letdown after their statement victory against BYU. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. First-year head coach Dan Lanning takes over a program that has been upset in four of their last six games when playing on the road as the favorite — and they were laying at least 8.5 points in all four of those upset losses. Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. Lanning tapped former Auburn quarterback Bo Nix to be his quarterback from the transfer portal — but the junior has a history of nasty home/road splits in his career. Granted, Nix comes off an efficient 13 of 18 passing effort against BYU where he passed for 222 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. In his career playing at home, Nix completes 65% of his passes with 30 touchdown passes and only two interceptions. But when playing on the road, Nix’s completion percentage drops to 55% with 12 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions. On the other side of the ball, Lanning’s plans to transform the Oregon defense remain a work in progress. After serving as the defensive coordinator at Georgia, Lanning inherited a Ducks defense that lost six of their top eight tacklers from a unit that ranked 72nd in the nation by allowing 385.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Oregon ranks 118th in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate this season — and they rank 97th in opponent’s Explosiveness Rate. They are allowing their opponents to average 277.0 passing YPG, ranking 114th in the FBS. BYU passed for 305 yards last week despite missing their top two wide receivers to injury — and the Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Washington State quarterback Cameron Ward comes off his best game for the Cougars last week. The highly-touted transfer from Incarnate Word completed 25 of 35 passes for 292 yards with four touchdown passes in the victory against the Rams. He led the Cougars to a 17-14 upset win against a nationally-ranked Wisconsin team the previous week. Washington State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. But the strength of this team under head coach Jake Dickert has been the play of the defense. The Cougars are allowing just 12.7 Points-Per-Game this season — and they rank 12th in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate with a balanced unit that is 18th in the FBS in opponent’s Rushing Success Rate and 17th in opponent’s Pass Success Rate. Washington State is holding their opponents to 90.7 rushing YPG, ranking 28th in the nation, and they have not allowed a rushing touchdown. They have also registered 14 sacks, the second-most in the nation. They held Colorado State to just 275 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against Pac-12 competition.

FINAL TAKE: Washington State will have revenge on their minds after a 38-24 loss in Eugene against the Ducks on November 13th last season. But Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against the Cougars — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against Washington State in Pullman. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Month with the Washington State Cougars (380) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (379). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (302) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (301). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (1-1) looks to bounce back from a 31-30 upset loss at home to the New York Jets as a 6.5-point favorite last week. Pittsburgh (1-1) looks to rebound from a 17-14 loss to New England as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland has allowed 27.5 PPG despite holding both opponents to 331.5 total YPG. They still have an outstanding defense that ranked 5th in the NFL by holding their opponents to 311.5 total YPG. JaDeveon Clowney will miss this game due to injury but Myles Garrett is expected to play after missing practice on Thursday. And despite not having the services of Deshaun Watson, the offense has been fine under veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett. The Browns are scoring 28.0 Points-Per-Game while generating 380.0 Yards-Per-Game after scoring 26 points in their opening game victory against Carolina. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 after losing at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. And while their first two games have finished Over the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing two straight Overs. The Pittsburgh offense is held back by an offensive line that is still a work in progress — and they are not getting challenging defenses with their vertical passing game under quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. The Steelers are scoring only 18.5 Points-Per-Game — and seven of those points came from a pick-six in their opening week upset win at Cincinnati. Pittsburgh has only managed two offensive touchdowns from the 255.0 total Yards-Per-Game they are averaging. Pittsburgh has played their first two games Under the Total — and not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after an Under but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing two straight Unders. They get outgained by -133 net yards last week against the Patriots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after getting outgained by at least 100 yards in their last game. New England passed for 252 yards against the Steel Curtain defense last week — and they are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after giving up at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And in their last 7 games with a low Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland got swept by the Steelers in their two games last year — so preparing for this game so an urgent concern for head coach Kevin Stefanski. The Browns have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on Thursday Night Football. The reliable combination of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should make the difference in this game. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Browns (302) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (306) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (305). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (0-3) lost their third straight game to start the season after their 42-41 upset loss at home to Charlotte despite being a 20-point favorite last Saturday. Coastal Carolina (3-0) remained undefeated this year after a 38-26 win against Buffalo as a 12-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Expectations were very high for this Georgia State team that returned 15 starters from a group that finished 8-5 including a 51-20 victory against Ball State in the Camellia Bowl. The Panthers won seven of their last eight games to end the season with the team improving when head coach Shawn Elliott turned to former Furman transfer Darren Grainer at quarterback. Elliott has led this young program to three straight bowl games — and this may be his best roster yet in Atlanta. Georgia State does not shy away from difficult schedules — which explains two-thirds of their disappointing start this year. They opened the year in Columbia against South Carolina — and they outgained the Gamecocks but had two of their punts returned for a touchdown in the second half to blow that opportunity to pull the upset. We had them the next week at home against North Carolina — and they had a 28-21 lead late in the third quarter against the Tar Heels before letting the game slip away. They stayed at home to host a Charlotte team that, ironically, was the only team they beat in their first five games last year in a brutal early stretch of games against Army, at North Carolina, at Auburn, and home against Appalachian State. Frankly, the Panthers should have upset Auburn in their building last year. With this showdown against Coastal Carolina on deck, Georgia State was in a letdown sandwich situation where they risked being flat after disappointing results with a game on deck. But the Panthers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a loss by six points or less in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two games in a row at home. Mental mistakes are holding this team back. Too penalties played a role last week as well as a 52-yard fumble recovery that the 49ers returned for a touchdown. Don’t blame the offense too much as they gained 602 total yards and outgained Charlotte by +101 net yards. Grainger completed 22 of 34 passes for 343 yards with four touchdowns and one interception while adding another 54 yards on the ground. The 49ers return Tucker Gregg and Jamyest Williams from a backfield that ranked eighth in the nation by averaging 226.4 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and they have improved on that mark this season by averaging 231 rushing YPG. They gained 259 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Additionally, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 yards. And while the defense gave up 401 passing yards last week, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after giving up at least 325 passing yards in their last contest. Georgia State should be better on that side of the ball with nine of their top 11 tacklers on defense back from last year including three starters in their secondary. Coastal Carolina has looked shaky despite their unbeaten start to the season. They allowed 202 rushing yards on 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry in their opening game against Army — a concerning effort when now playing the Panthers' rushing attack. They were then outgained by Gardner Webb in a 32-27 victory despite being a 32.5-point favorite. Then last week against the Bulls, they entered the fourth quarter trailing by a 19-17 score before recovering a fumble that they returned for a 21-yard touchdown changed the momentum of that game. The Chanticleers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. And while they forced four turnovers last week, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after forcing at least three turnovers in their last contest. Coastal Carolina is led by their third-year starting quarterback, Grayson McCall, who is the two-time reigning Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year. But after 19 starters were back last year for their second-straight 11-win season, the team lost tons of talent on both sides of the ball for this year. On offense, McCall lost 161 receptions accounting for 2645 yards and 24 touchdowns including tight end Isaiak Likely who is developing into the third receiving option already for the Baltimore Ravens. The Chanticleers also lost a 1000-yard rusher in Shermari Jones to graduation and three starters on the offensive line. The defense lost their top-five tacklers — and the linebackers lost five of their top six from last year and seven of the top nine defensive backs. Fifth-year head coach Jamey Chadwell did his best to fortify the roster from the transfer portal but this is a young program as well that just finished a peak cycle. And don’t underestimate the importance of this team only losing six starts to injury last year which helped produce that 11-2 campaign. Now the depth issues for this program get exposed with just seven starters back. They are running the ball in 65% of their snaps — but they only rank 71st in Rushing Success Rate. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in conference play — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: This Georgia State handed the Chanticleers one of their two losses last year — but McCall did miss that game with an injury. But this is a veteran Panthers team with 10 sixth-year super seniors back this year taking advantage of the COVID free-year of eligibility — and they must win this game to save their season. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in conference play. Getting Coastal Carolina on a short week will help because their identity is to win in the trenches on both sides of the ball. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month with the Georgia State Panthers (306) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (292) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (291). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-0) comes off a 38-35 win at Detroit as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (1-0) defeated Green Bay by a 23-7 score as a  2.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia generated 455 total yards against the Lions with 215 of that production coming on the ground. Jalen Hurts completed 18 of 32 passes for 243 yards — and he added 90 yards on the ground on 17 carries with a touchdown. This season is the first year Hurts has had the same offensive coordinator for a second straight season since when he was playing in high school — don’t be surprised if he has a breakout season. The Eagles are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a game where they gained at least 150 yards rushing the football. Philly returns home where they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Minnesota may be due for a letdown after their emotional victory against their arch-rivals in the Packers. But the Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Kirk Cousins had a great game against Green Bay by completing 23 of 32 passes for 277 yards — but Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. But here comes a prime-time game where Cousins tends to shrink in the national spotlight. He has lost nine of his eleven career starts on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when playing on Monday Night — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing the Eagles in Philadelphia. 10* NFL Minnesota-Philadelphia ABC-TV Special with the Philadelphia Eagles (292) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (291). Best of luck for us — Frank.

 At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (287) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (288). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-0) won their opener with a 19-10 upset win against San Francisco as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay looks to rebound from their 23-7 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Packers should be more effective on offense this week after Aaron Rodgers was ineffective in his first game playing without his security blanket Davante Adams. But Rodgers is clearly not comfortable with the two rookies the team drafted, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, and he does not have the same confidence in veterans like Sammie Watkins or Randall Cobb as he did with Adams. Unlike Patrick Mahomes who had his group of wide receivers spend time with him in Fort Worth, Texas to bond and develop some passing chemistry with him, Rodgers did whatever he does in the offseason that is away from football. His tough-love approach to freeze out Watson after he dropped a likely touchdown pass from a bomb from Rodgers in his first target in the game was not the best way to nurture his confidence. The passing game is going to be a work in progress for the Packers for a while. Granted, injuries played a role last week with both starting tackles, David Bakhtiari and Elton Jenkins, not playing and wide receiver Allen Lazard — perhaps the top receiver for the team this season — also out with an ankle. Lazard took part in practice but was limited on Friday — if he plays, he will probably not be 100%. It looks like Jenkins will play but not sure about Bakhtiari who was limited in his first practice this week on Friday. It’s still far from ideal for this team with their best players banged up learning to live life without Adams. Green Bay’s formula for success will be to run the football behind Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon — but the Bears know this. San Francisco stymied the Packers in the playoffs last year by keying on Adams and Jones. As he enters the “get off my lawn” stage of his career, Rodgers has not demonstrated that he is willing to give what the defense gives him. As it is, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a double-digit loss to a divisional rival. And while their defense allowed 395 yards to the Vikings last week, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after giving up at least 350 yards in their last game. The Packers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. Chicago has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win at home. And while they got outgained by -127 net yards last week to the 49ers, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after getting outgained by at least 75 yards. And in their last 10 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range, they have covered the point spread 7 times — and they are 3-1 ATS in those circumstances when playing on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Despite their 6-11 record last year, the Bears only got outgained by -9.3 net yards last season. Green Bay only outgained their opponents by +37.4 net YPG last year — their 13-4 record overall was buoyed by a 6-3 record in games decided by one possession. The Rodgers-to-Adams connection played a large role in that overachievement. I’m not selling my Packers stock, long-term, but beating division rivals by more than a touchdown is a tough business — and I don’t think Green Bay is stable enough to get that done, especially when all they really want (and need) is to win the scoreboard. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (287) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (275) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). THE SITUATION: New England (0-1) looks to rebound from their 20-7 loss in Miami to the Dolphins as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Pittsburgh (1-0) comes off a 23-20 upset victory in overtime at Cincinnati as a 7.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England fell behind early and went into halftime trailing by a 17-0 score. One of those Dolphins’ touchdowns came from a fumble recovery on the Patriots' 2-yard line that they scooped a returned into the end zone. New England had a -3 net turnover margin. It was a disappointing effort — and the critics of Bill Belichick were quick to use this first game as evidence that he is past his prime. Look, I’m not a fan of Matt Patricia — but his impact as the team’s offensive coordinator is overblown. Belichick started as a wide receiver’s coach in the 70s. Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris coached the offensive side of the ball when on the Atlanta Falcons’ staff during the Dan Quinn era. Coaches like Belichick simply think that “coaching is coaching” — and that a defensive coach moving to the other side of the ball is akin to a prosecutor moving into private practice as a defense attorney. It is simply too early to pass judgment — especially when Belichick has declared on many occasions that he does not finish the installation of the offense each season until the end of September. So, let’s not overreact. New England has often struggled when playing at Miami. Tom Brady lost ten of his eighteen starts on the road against the Dolphins when playing for the Patriots. In those ten losses, New England scored just 17.5 Points-Per-Game and averaged 293.5 total Yards-Per-Game. In Brady’s trip to Miami in 2006, the Dolphins shut him out while holding him to 189 total yards. For the record, the Patriots finished 12-4 that season before losing to Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship Game. New England only ran the ball 22 times against the Dolphins — and the strength of this team will be them running the ball and leaning on their outstanding defense. The Patriots were second in the league by allowing 17.8 PPG. Belichick is not receiving enough credit for leading his team into the playoffs last year with a rookie quarterback. They outscored their opponents by +9.4 PPG with them generating 27.2 PPG and ranking 15th in the NFL by averaging 353.4 total YPG. It is telling that despite all the naysayers about this team this week, the bookies still list New England as the road favorite for this game. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a double-digit loss to a divisional rival. And while they held the Dolphins to just 65 rushing yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. Additionally, New England has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in Week Two of the regular season under Belichick — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored. We were on Pittsburgh last week — and it was great to see them benefit from a +5 net turnover margin including a 31-yard interception return for a touchdown. The Steelers got outgained by -165 net yards. It was a huge win for this team — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset victory as an underdog. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a victory by seven points or less. The Steelers only gained 267 yards of offense with quarterback Mitchell Trubisky averaging just 5.1 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. They allowed the Bengals to gain 432 total yards — and not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after getting outgained by at least 100 yards in their last contest. Now Pittsburgh returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. Furthermore, the Steelers will be without T.J. Watt who is on Injured Reserve after tearing his pectoral muscle last week.

FINAL TAKE: While Belichick tends to struggle on the road against the Dolphins, he has a great track record when coaching against Tomlin. New England has beaten Pittsburgh in five of their last six meetings with the average score being 30-18.7 — they have a +68 net point differential in those six games. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 trips to Pittsburgh. The last time New England began the season 0-2 was in 2001 which happens to the season Brady took over as the team’s quarterback. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (275) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (201) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (202). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (1-1) looks to bounce back from a 35-32 loss at home to Oregon State as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. USC (2-0) is undefeated so far this season after their 41-28 victory at Stanford as a 10-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: USC has declared their program back to national prominence after following up their 66-14 victory against Rice two weeks ago with a 41-28 win at Stanford last week. First-year head coach Lincoln Riley was not saying anything to tap the breaks on all the accolades that have been offered to him in the interviews I saw of him this week. But this is the biggest test the Trojans will have so far this season against a Bulldogs team with a senior quarterback who will be drafted into the NFL. The Cardinal program has taken a step back in the last few seasons — so big wins against Rice and them are just not that big a deal. As it is, USC has failed to cover the point seeped in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, the Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Sophomore quarterback Caleb Williams who came over with Riley from Oklahoma completed 20 of 27 passes for 341 yards with four touchdowns last week — but USC is just 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Riley developed a reputation for having his teams underperform in critical games when he was coaching the Sooners. The Trojans led Rice at halftime by a 31-14 score before taking a 35-14 halftime lead last week — but Riley’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after enjoying a two-touchdown lead or better in two straight games. The underlying numbers suggest that this team may soon get a visit from the Regression Gods. USC has enjoyed a +8 net turnover margin this year — despite the expected turnover margin being just +2.5. The bouncing ball from fumbles and tipped passes tends to even out over time. Stanford turned the ball over twice inside the Trojans’ 5-yard line last week — and while the Trojans had a +4 net turnover margin in that game, the expected turnover margin was just +1.6. USC has intercepted six balls despite only having seven pass breakups — and the metrics indicate that teams get one interception per four pass breakups. The Trojans host this game where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against non-conference opponents. Fresno State has 15 starters back from the team that finished 10-3 last year with a victory against UTEP in the New Mexico Bowl by a 31-24 score. The Bulldogs are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a straight-up loss. And while they generated 492 yards against the Beavers last week, they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 42 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Senior quarterback Jake Haener completed 29 of 45 passes for 360 yards in a losing effort. He has an elite group of wide receivers led by Jalen Cropper and Josh Kelly. Haener is a gunslinger who will be able to move the ball against this USC defense that allowed 5.5 Yards-Per-Play and 441 total yards against Stanford. And the Bulldogs should have success running the football. Led by running backs Jordan Mims and Malik Sherrod who combined to average 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry, Fresno State ranks seventh in the nation in Rushing Success Rate. Despite Rice and Stanford being suspect running teams last year, both those teams averaged 6.8 Yards-Per-Carry in non-sack rushing attempts this season — and the Trojans rank 119th in opponent’s Rushing Success Rate. The Bulldogs are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games on the road — and they have covered 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against Pac-12 opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Fresno State will be very motivated to make a statement against the biggest in-state program. They upset UCLA by a 40-37 score in Los Angeles last season with Haener having a big day. USC has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Month with the Fresno State Bulldogs (201) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (193) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (194). THE SITUATION: UTSA (1-1) looks to rebound from their 41-38 upset loss in overtime at Army last Saturday as a 2-point favorite. Texas (1-1) comes off a 20-19 loss at home to Alabama as a 21-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS THE POINTS: Once again, Texas has declared themselves “back” as a national power — this time this proclamation is being made despite not winning their last game. Admittedly, the Longhorns played their best game on defense in a long time — but that may speak more to the state of the Crimson Tide’s offensive line and talent at wide receiver than it does regarding the Texas defense that ranked 100th in the nation last year by allowing 425.6 total Yards-Per-Game. For a defensive unit that was called out last year for not playing hard, coming off a “successful” setback to now host a Group of Five opponent might be a recipe for disaster. As it is, the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing their last game. Second-year head coach Steve Sarkisian has been anointed as a brilliant leader more than one time — only to find another way to fail. After the chaos under his watch as the head coach at USC, he was given another chance as the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons before taking the same job at Alabama under Nick Saban. He took over the Texas program last year after Tom Herman, the previous “savior” who “resurrected the program to national stature” after beating Georgia in the 2020 Sugar Bowl to complete a four-loss season, was fired after four seasons. Despite having 15 starters back, the Longhorns settled for their first losing season in five seasons after the team lost six in a row in the second half of the season. Off-the-field chaos continued to follow Sarkisian  — and the team lost at home to Kansas. But forget all that. A win against UL-Monroe before the “triumph” of losing to Alabama in a close game changes everything … once again. Concerns remain from last week’s game. Texas only rushed for 79 yards on 33 carries despite having junior phenom Bijan Robinson who is now dealing with an injury that may slow him down in this game. They are 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games after not rushing for at least 100 yards in their last game. The bigger news is that freshman Quinn Ewers suffered a broken clavicle that will keep him out for four to six weeks. Redshirt sophomore Hudson Card gets the start for this game after he came on in relief to complete 14 of 22 passes for 158 yards. But he is dealing with a nagging ankle injury that might limit his mobility which is central to his skill set. Card was benched after the section game last year because he was lacking in pocket presence. His confidence could easily get shot if this becomes a close game. UTSA is a very dangerous opponent. The reigning Conference USA champions return 13 starters from the team that finished 12-2 last year. This group is already battle-tested with both of their games this season going to overtime after losing their opening game against Houston despite outgaining them by 101 net yards. The Roadrunners then outgained the Black Knights last week by 28 net yards in pulling out that win. UTSA has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and after gaining 513 yards against the solid Army defense, they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. Defense is a concern for this team after they allowed 485 yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Roadrunners have a sixth-year senior at quarterback with plenty of experience in Frank Harris. He is having an outstanding season. He is averaging 348 passing Yards-Per-Game with six touchdown passes to one interception — and he is adding 46.5 rushing YPG. UTSA has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games in September.

FINAL TAKE: While Texas just played their proverbial “Super Bowl” last week, this is the Roadrunners’ big opportunity to make a statement now. This is the first time that UTSA will be playing at Texas Memorial Stadium as they make the 80-mile trip north from San Antonio to Austin. This team will not be intimidated. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against non-conference opponents under third-year head coach Jeff Traylor — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on turf where their team speed on offense can be better deployed. 25* CFB Underdog of the Month with the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (193) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (194). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (103) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (104). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (1-0) began the regular season with a 24-19 victory against Las Vegas as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (1-0) opened the season with a 44-21 win at Arizona as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory against an AFC West rival in their last game. The Chargers flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Raiders to just 320 yards of total offense. Linebacker Khalil Mack looked rejuvenated in a Chargers uniform after being signed in the offseason from Chicago. He joined linebacker Joey Bosa to combine for 16 hits on Las Vegas quarterback Derek Carr. I am expecting a significant bump in the play of this Los Angeles defense in the second season under head coach Brandon Staley. The team hopes to have free agent cornerback J.C. Jackson take the field tonight after he missed Sunday’s game with an ankle injury. The former New England star is one of the best cover corners in the league. Losing Keenan Allen to a hamstring injury is significant — but with the addition of Sony Michel who was cut by Miami, look for the Chargers to run the ball more with a rotation of Austin Ekeler, Joshua Kelley, Isaiah Spiller, and Michel. I definitely expect Staley to have his defense play a two-high safety zone that frustrated Patrick Mahomes last season. Inexplicably the Cardinals opted to play a single high safety and bring the blitz early and often against Mahomes last week. I like Arizona defensive coordinator Vance Joseph — but I would sure like to hear his rationale for bypassing the two high safeties and opting to blitz on 53% of the Chiefs’ dropbacks. Mahomes punishes the blitz. Opposing defenses found success against him by playing that two-high safety zone defense that takes away the deep ball. With Justin Herbert under center, the Chargers are consistently live underdogs — even on the road. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they are 36-16-4 ATS in their last 57 road games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in September. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Chiefs generated 33 first downs and controlled the clock for 34:42 minutes in their easy win against the Cardinals, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing a game where they gained at least 24 first downs and controlled the clock for at least 34 minutes. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Additionally, Kansas City kicker (and fantasy gem) Harrison Butker is out for this game — they activated Matt Ammendola from the practice squad to kick field goals and extra points (which does not hurt our case for the Chargers).

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers will not be intimidated playing at Arrowhead Stadium — they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road against the Chiefs including last season when they upset them by a 30-24 score as a 7-point underdog on September 26th. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Chargers (103) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). THE SITUATION: Seattle (0-0) begins the post-Russell Wilson era coming off a 7-10 season. Denver (0-0) begins their Russell Wilson era after finishing 7-10 last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Many pundits consider the Broncos as a Super Bowl favorite after their heavy investment in Wilson as their franchise quarterback. Yet this is a flawed football team that has endured five-straight losing seasons. There are depth concerns at wide receiver after Tim Patrick suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason. Wilson is getting a downgrade at wide receiver after enjoying the talents of Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. Jerry Jeudy did not have a touchdown pass last year and Courtland Sutton has failed to seize the mantle as a number one receiver for this team. The Denver defense is overrated with good frontline numbers bolstered by a ball control offense. The Broncos' offense under head coach Vic Fangio ranked 5th in the league by averaging 29.45 seconds per play last year. Their opponent’s average starting position was on the 26.0-yard line, the second-best mark in the league. Denver ranked 3rd in the NFL by allowing only 18.9 Points-Per-Game but they also lead the league by holding their opponents to just 16.2 drives per game. They ranked 8th in total defense — but the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders ranked their defense as 20th in the league which is probably a more accurate measure as to what to expect this season. Now a rookie head coach takes over the team with first-time offensive and defensive coordinators. Maybe this team makes a deep playoff run — but at the very least I expect some growing pains. Maybe Nathaniel Hackett will be an instant success — but I remain puzzled how he is the boy genius as the Green Bay offensive coordinator who gets none of the blame for the Packers' postseason issues while all the blame goes to Aaron Rodgers and head coach Matt LaFleur. Seems pretty convenient  — and Sutton and Jeudy were innocent victims of bad quarterback play. And, of course, Russell Wilson is the only reason why Seattle enjoyed nine-straight winning seasons with Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll holding him back from even more success because he simply would not “let him cook.” To buy into the Denver hype, one must be willing to assess all blame elsewhere. I’m skeptical that it is that simple. If Wilson has lost a step with his mobility and has to rely more on his dropback skills, he may not be quite as good as he was in the past. His size prohibits him from making certain throws on the field. That is not a death knell — Drew Brees was quite effective even in the latter years of his career. But Wilson does not have Brees’ accuracy. Wilson tends to not see open receivers and can be too “all-or-nothing.” Maybe that changes with a better offensive line — but he is adjusting to a new system. Yes, Wilson had input in the offense to have it tailored to his expectations — but that was exactly what we heard last year when Carroll hired Shane Waldron as his offensive coordinator from the Los Angeles Rams (Sean McVay! Sean McVay!). As it is, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road when favored. And in their last 6 games on Monday Night Football, the Broncos are 1-4-1 ATS. Seattle needed the influx of young talent after years of decline in the quality on the roster. Wilson’s big contract did not help the organization’s ability to manage the salary cap. The Seahawks had their first top-ten draft pick in a decade in the spring — and they brought in several rookies who will make an impact tonight. Seattle had 9.3 wins using the Pythagorean model — so this was probably a better team than their 7-10 record suggests. They lost five of their eight games decided by one scoring possession. They outscored their opponents by +1.7 Points-Per-Game. Yes, moving to Geno Smith at quarterback is a downgrade to Wilson with the team likely to draft a rookie in the first round to become their franchise quarterback next year. But Smith did have a Passer Rating of 103.0 last year as compared to Wilson’s 103.1 Passer Rating (albeit playing through an injury). What Smith does offer is the elimination of any pressure to force the passing game to make the quarterback happy as has been the case in the past. Seattle is going to run the football and attempt to control time of possession — the formula that helped Denver produce their good defensive numbers in the past. Rashaad Penny rushed for 671 yards with seven touchdowns in his final seven games last year — and he averaged +2.1 yards-per-carry above the metrics expected yards-per-carry. The offensive line has been significantly upgraded with free agent Austin Blythe from Kansas City at center and two early draft picks in Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas joining the mix. The defense will be better simply by being on the field less. While the offense averaged only 56.1 plays per game, the defense was on the field for 70.6 plays per game. That -14.5 net difference was the 4th worst in the NFL since 1950. It is that dynamic that Carroll gets to address with Wilson gone. No, this is not a Super Bowl team — but the rebuild begins and this defense shapes up to be sneaky better than expected. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games as an underdog. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Wilson will feel some pressure returning to Lumen Field — and he is the one with Super Bowl expectations. Seattle has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in September — and no one knows Wilson better than Carroll who has had the entire offseason to prepare to defend against his former quarterback. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (480). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (0-0) comes off a 13-4 season after losing at home to the Los Angeles Rams by a 30-27 score in the NFC divisional round of the playoffs. Dallas (0-0) lost in the NFC wildcard round in a 23-17 loss at home to San Francisco.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay has significant offensive line issues after former Pro Bowler Ali Marpet retired in the offseason and then center Ryan Jensen got injured during the preseason. But the Buccaneers still have All-Pro Tristan Wirfs at right tackle — and they signed Shaq Mason from New England to replace Market at guard in the offseason. Tampa Bay’s starting offensive line should still be fine — the bigger problem is the lack of any margin for error when it comes to injury since the depth has been depleted. It certainly helps to have Tom Brady under center who not only is one of the best ever with his footwork in his pocket but also has the veteran savvy to manage a pass rush. Brady missed much of the preseason for his mysterious mid-camp “sabbatical” — but the reports out of camp were that he was quite good in his abbreviated time with the team. This is a redemption season for Brady and this team after they seemed to lose focus last year after winning the Super Bowl. The Bucs were flat in the first half when hosting the Rams in the playoffs before almost pulling off a big rally in the second half. The sting of that loss and the reset this organization made by elevating Todd Bowles from defensive coordinator to their head coach should motivate this team. Brady will not have wide receiver Chris Godwin tonight — but he still has a loaded wide receiver room that added Julio Jones and Russell Gage in the offseason along with tight end Kyle Rudolph to complement Mike Evans and Scottie Miller. The Buccaneers’ defense should be outstanding after ranking 5th in the league by allowing 20.8 Points-Per-Game. Injuries played a role in their Super Bowl hangover last year — but this team still outscored their opponents by +9.3 Points-Per-Game. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against NFC opponents. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Dallas has even more troubling offensive line issues. Left tackle Tyron Smith injured his hamstring in the preseason which will keep him out indefinitely — and the Cowboys have historically seen a significant dip in their scoring output when Smith is not available. Frankly, quarterback Dan Prescott is likely playing behind the worst offensive line since being drafted by Dallas. His early success with the team came with him playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Only right guard Zack Martin remains from those units (with Smith injured). They cut right tackle La’El Collins in the offseason. The Cowboys will be relying on rookie first-round draft pick Tyler Smith at left tackle — but he committed 12 penalties in his 12 starts for Tulsa last year. Jason Peters may eventually be their left tackle after he was signed off the street — but the 40-year-old is on the practice squad getting into shape. The Dallas wide receiver room lost two key contributors in Amari Cooper and Cedric Wilson in the offseason — and they will not have the injured Michael Gallup for this game. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. In Brady, I Trust for this one. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (475) plus (or minus) the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (476). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (0-0) comes off a 13-4 season where they lost to San Francisco in the NFC Divisional Playoff round by a 13-10 score. Minnesota (0-0) missed the playoffs after an 8-9 campaign last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINTS: Don’t be surprised to see Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers come out with a chip on their shoulder in this game after an offseason where the team was being discounted after making the decision to not pay the big contract to wide receiver Davante Adams. Certainly, the Packers will miss his 123 receptions for 1553 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. But the Green Bay offense stalled at times last year even with Adams. Green Bay lost at home in the NFC Championship Game despite the 49ers failing to score an offensive touchdown. It was the second-straight time that Aaron Rodgers saw his team get upset at home at Lambeau Field in the postseason. Rodgers has won two-straight Most Valuable Player Awards, but he underachieved in the playoffs for the second-straight season. Since leading Green Bay to the Super Bowl twelve years ago, Rodgers has a 7-9 record in his 16 playoff games. Firing Mike McCarthy and bringing in a head coach who had lunch once with Sean McVay was supposed to be the solution for the Packers’ offense when they hired  Matt LeFleur in 2019. But despite a 39-10 regular season record, the offense has stagnated for this team in the playoffs. The now 38-year-old veteran seems to have become finicky in his later years in the league. His “trust” factor with his wide receivers seems to be much higher than it is for Tom Brady and Peyton Manning back in his day who both seemed to need to a few workout sessions before being comfortable in throwing the ball to (wide open) secondary targets. Of course, Brady and Manning are notorious for vigorous offseason programs designed to facilitate this trust and comfort. That’s not necessarily Rodgers’ thing. He seems to need years of experience and familiarity with his wide receivers before he develops trust. That helps explain why he drew a line in the sand last year for management to support his wishes by acquiring former Packer Randall Cobb as a free agent from Dallas despite his being on the wrong side of 30 years-old. Cobb caught 28 balls for 375 yards last year. It is easy to understand why Rodgers would key-on Adams. The now-former Packer has great hands with a huge catch-radius and runs very precise routes. But when it becomes clear to everyone — including the 49ers defense and the bettors backing the Packers in the NFC Championship Game — that Rodgers is either going to throw the ball to Adams, running back, Aaron Jones, or an occasional lob to the 37-year-old tight end Marcedes Lewis, good defenses are capable enough to stop that. Like a parent hiding the video game console to get their child to do their home work, Rodgers will have to find new receivers to move the ball downfield if he wants to counting to throw the football in 61% of their snaps. Allen Lazard has potential to step up as a primary option (although his availability is in question for this afternoon’s game). Second round pick Christian Watson from North Dakota State has demonstrated flashes of brilliance in college. Amari Rodgers is a second-year player from Clemson who was drafted with fanfare but only caught four balls last year. Sammy Watkins was signed as a free agent from Baltimore with still tremendous albeit unfulfilled upside. Cobb is still around, as is Jones and A.J. Dillon catching balls out of the backfield. Green Bay is going to run the ball and lean on their outstanding defense that may be the best group they had since their last Super Bowl. And Rodgers will throw the ball to open receivers from the schemes of LaFleur and his adjustments at the line of scrimmage. This remains a team that has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in September. Minnesota was outgained by -19.8 net Yards-Per-Game last season. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games at home. They have a rookie head coach in Kevin O’Connell who is implementing new schemes on both sides of the ball. I expect a bumpy road for this team out of the gates. And while I have heard the narrative that Minnesota will finally “Let Kirk Cook” regarding Kirk Cousins getting an offensive coach who will not hurt his feelings and make him feel insecure. But wasn’t that what he had in Washington with head coach Jay Gruden? How did that work out? Maybe the “You like that!” guy who put his team at risk for missing games last year by not getting vaccinated is exactly the type of player who needs some tough love rather than 100% affirmation? O’Connell comes from the Sean McVay school as the Rams offensive coordinator last year. How many interceptions did Matthew Stafford throw on Thursday (answer: three)? Maybe, just maybe, 100% positive reinforcement is the formula  for a ton of interceptions for guys like Cousins.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay will remember their embarrassing 38-3 loss to New Orleans in the opening week of last year’s season. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against NFC North opponents. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Green Bay Packers (475) plus (or minus) the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (476). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (461) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (462). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-0) begins the post-Ben Roethlisberger era coming off a 9-7-1 campaign where they made the playoffs but got soundly defeated at Kansas City in the AFC Wildcard round by a 42-21 score. Cincinnati (10-7) comes off their 23-20 loss to the Los Angeles Rams in the Super Bowl.

THE SITUATION: Not many are giving the Steelers much of a shot this year with many publications picking them fourth in the AFC North with their season victory total topping out in the eight-win range. But Pittsburgh continues to have confidence and the resolve of a winning franchise that sets their own standards. They have not had a losing season in the 15 years under head coach Mike Tomlin. The reports out of training camp were that they were an angry and focused group looking to prove something after their three-touchdown loss to the Chiefs. They are the only team in the NFL to engage in tackling each and every day in practice during the preseason. The retirement of Roethlisberger provides the team the opportunity to reset themselves and look in new directions.  Offensive coordinator Matt Canada appears anxious to modernize the offense with plenty of quarterback run option plays  — something they can deploy with Mitchell Trubisky. I am not expecting Trubisky to play like a Hall of Famer. However, a year removed from his exit from Chicago does have him looking in a better light after the disastrous coaching job Matt Nagy did with Justin Fields last year. Remember, Trubisky had a career 29-21 record with the Bears despite Nagy. Pittsburgh also has a big edge in this opening game with the element of surprise since the Bengals lack game tape of how the new offense will operate. The Steelers have an underrated wide receiver room with Deontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, tight end Pat Freiermuth, and the preseason rookie phenol, George Pickens. With Trubisky under center, Pittsburgh has a quarterback with the arm strength to open up the vertical passing game — something Roethlisberger could not do in the twilight of his career. The defense should be a strength of the team. For the fifth straight season, they led the league in sacks. Despite dealing with a host of injuries, the Steel Curtain improved over the final six weeks of the season where they forced 17 turnovers. Pittsburgh loves spots like this where they are discounted — they are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games as an underdog. Furthermore, they are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games under Tomlin when an underdog against an AFC North rival. I thought Cincinnati should have won the Super Bowl if not for the ill-advised running back rotation of head coach Zac Taylor which convinced him to keep Joe Mixon off the field in crucial down-and-distance situations against the Los Angeles Rams. I love Burrow — but the offense was too often boom-or-bust which I think is a function of Taylor’s play-calling (one of many offensive “geniuses” head coaches who would better serve to let their offensive coordinator call plays so that they can full attention to the game management responsibilities of a head coach. The Bengals brass attempted to upgrade the offensive line with three free agent signings along with a fourth-round draft pick. The group should be better — but since Taylor is a Sean McVay disciple (save for relying on play-action which would have helped the suspect offensive lines of the past perform better), he did not play his offensive line together much in the preseason leaving cohesion issues against hostile competition still an issue. The Cincinnati defense was middling last year — they ranked 18th in total defense by allowing 350.8 total Yards-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is one of the best in the business in play design — but the talent of this unit remains a concern. They ranked 26th in passing yards allowed and 24th in the passing defensive DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders. They ranked 26th in completion rate allowed which may be a problem against a Steelers’ offense that likes to get the ball to their speedy receivers in space to take advantage of YAC (yards after the catch). And then there is the fact that the loser of the Super Bowl has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of the last 22 opening weeks to the new season.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati dominated Pittsburgh in their two meetings last year — winning both games by a combined 65-10 score. Tomlin certainly used this as a constant reminder to his team in the preseason. The Steelers have still covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against division rivals. Expect a close game. 25* AFC North Underdog of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (461) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (462). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (348) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (347). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-0) comes off a 38-31 win at home against West Virginia as a 7.5-point favorite on September 1st. Tennessee (1-0) defeated Ball State by 59-10 score as a 37-point favorite two Thursdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: We had the Mountaineers in that Thursday night game who covered the point spread by a half-point — and Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. The encouraging development for Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi was the play of senior quarterback Kedon Slovis. The transfer from USC completed 16 of 24 passes for 308 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions to outplay J.T. Daniels, the quarterback he replaced for the Trojans when both were in that program. The Panthers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Pitt returns 15 starters from the team that finished 11-3 and won the ACC championship. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Tennessee was dominant on offense last week by gaining 569 total yards against an overmatched Cardinals defense. But the Volunteers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a victory under second-year head coach Josh Heupel. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last game. And while Tennessee held Ball State to just 343 total yards, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Volunteers' defense will likely remain the downfall of this team after they ranked 99th in the nation last year by allowing 421.7 total Yards-Per-Game. They did not register a sack last week — and they missed 11 tackles. Tennessee was flat-track bullies last year that beat up on lesser teams before shrinking against better competition. They scored 53 Points-Per-Game while averaging 7.6 Yards-Per-Play against teams outside ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s top-40 SP+ analytics system — but those numbers dropped to 29 PPG and 6.2 YPP against teams inside the SP+ top-40. While they held their first seven opponents to 22.9 PPG and 4.9 YPP, those defensive numbers exploded to them giving up 39.3 PPG and 6.0 YPP in their last six games when they started playing quality SEC opponents. They lost four of their five games last year against ranked opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played last year with Pitt winning on the road in Knoxville by a 41-34 score. It was that loss that prompted Heupel to make a change at quarterback with Hendon Hooker taking over for Joe Milton — but that angle may be overrated in this rematch since Hooker played for much of that game. This will be a clash of styles between the fast-tempo of the Volunteers' offense facing the ball control slog that the Panthers want to play. Pitt ran the ball on 61% of their plays last week — and this style may frustrate Tennessee who is used to getting their way. The laptops tend to overvalue the Volunteers given their blowout victories against lesser teams in which they play fast and do not take their foot off the accelerator. The Panthers have six All-ACC selections back on defense — and the Pitt defense generated eight tackles-for-loss last week. 10* CFB Tennessee-Pittsburgh ABC-TV Special with the Pittsburgh Panthers (348) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (347). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (322) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (321). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (0-1) looks to bounce back from a 35-14 loss at South Carolina as a 12-point underdog last Saturday. North Carolina (2-0) survived a 63-61 upset win at Appalachian State as a 3.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Tar Heels were very fortunate to leave Boone, North Carolina with a victory last week. The Mountaineers missed a two-point conversion at the end of the game that would have forced overtime. Not only did the Tar Heels get outgained by 82 net yards, but they also surrendered a whopping 649 yards in that game with Appalachian State scoring an incredible 40 points in the fourth quarter alone. Fourth-year head coach Mack Brown brought in Gene Chizik as his new defensive coordinator to fix a defense that ranked 94th in the nation by allowing 418.0 total Yards-Per-Game last year. It is safe to say that remains a work in progress. The 11 starters that returned from last year’s team that settled for a 6-7 record may have learned the wrong lesson last week. They stay on the road this week to play another Sun Belt Conference team who they crushed by 32 points last year — so they may not be completely focused with a bye on deck before a showdown with Notre Dame. As it is, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. This team has not fared well after playing a wild high-scoring game. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game where both teams scored 30 or more points. They did gain 567 yards last week — and they have averaged 8.85 and 9.45 Yards-Per-Play in their first two games. But the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after generating at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. Their defense is a big problem — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Furthermore, North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road games when favored. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against non-conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record. Georgia State should have a chip on their shoulder for this game after losing to an SEC opponent last week in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated. The Panthers outgained the Gamecocks by a 311-306 margin but had two punts blocked in the second half that were returned for touchdowns. Georgia State opened the game by driving inside South Carolina’s 10-yard line before turning the ball over on downs. The Gamecocks also nailed two field goals from beyond 50 yards. But this is a resilient team under head coach Shawn Elliott in his sixth year with the program. The Panthers won seven of their last eight games last year — including a 51-20 victory against Ball State in the Camellia Bowl — to finish the season with an 8-5 record. Fourteen starters return from that group including senior quarterback Darren Grainger. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. And while last week’s game finished Under the 55-point Total, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after playing an Under in their previous game. They should have success running the football against a Tar Heels defense that allowed Appalachian State to generate 6.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Georgia State has four starters back and their top two rushers from last year, Tucker Gregg and Jamyest Williams, from an offense that was 8th in the nation by averaging 226.4 rushing YPG. Grainger is a mobile quarterback who ran for 660 yards last season and who gained 43 yards on the ground last week. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.                         

FINAL TAKE: Georgia State will not be intimidated by hosting a Power-Five team this afternoon. The Panthers outgained a Gamecocks team last week that soundly defeated the Tar Heels in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl by a 38-21 score last season. Georgia State upset Tennessee in Knoxville in 2019 — and they played Auburn tough on the road last season before losing by a 34-24 score. The Panthers will have revenge on their minds as well after getting embarrassed in Chapel Hill to the Tar Heels by a 59-17 score. That game was played early in the season before Grainger took over as the starting quarterback which helped turn their season around. 25* CFB Saturday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Georgia State Panthers (322) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (451) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (452). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (0-0) comes off an 11-6 season where they lost on the road at Kansas City by a 42-36 score in the AFC Divisional round. Los Angeles (0-0) are the reigning Super Bowl Champions after beating Cincinnati in the Super Bowl by a 23-20 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: The Bills are favorites in the betting market to win the Super Bowl this season with the expectation being that they will have a chip on their shoulder after their heartbreaking loss to the Chiefs when their defense allowed a game-tying field goal with just 13 seconds left in regulation. After Kansas City scored a game-tying field goal to force overtime, they won the coin flip and Patrick Mahomes did not let Josh Allen get the ball again by leading the Chiefs on a touchdown drive that ended the game — and prompted a change in the NFL overtime rules (by kicking the can on the inevitable “but why can’t the other team get one more chance” dilemma when removing the clock, even if for good reasons). Allen and the Bills’ offense should be loaded for bear this season. They were 3rd in the NFL last year by scoring 28.4 Points-Per-Game — and they were 5th by generating 408.4 total Yards-Per-Game. Allen was transcendent in the playoffs last year with nine touchdown passes and a Passer Rating of 149.0. The interesting thing about him is that he tended to save his best games for the national spotlight. According to the metrics at Football Outsiders, while he had a DVOA of 27.8% for the season overall, that mark rose to a 43.5% clip when playing in prime-time games on national television. Nine starters return on offense — and while offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is the head coach for the New York Giants, his quarterback coach and now offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey has been considered one of the brightest young offensive minds in the game. He should have more reliable weapons to compliment Stefon Diggs in the passing game this season. Gabriel Davis had a breakout game against the Chiefs in the playoffs with four touchdown catches. Buffalo added slot receiver, Jamison Crowder, from the New York Jets in the offseason. The Bills have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in September. Los Angeles returns to SoFi Stadium where they had the advantage of playing the Super Bowl against one of the weakest opponents in years (decades?) in the Bengals (apologies to Joe Burrow — and we covered with Cincinnati!). Cincinnati had a below-average offensive line and just a middle-of-the-road — but they still were in a position to win that game before head coach Zac Taylor bungled his play-calling and kept Joe Mixon off the field on crucial third and fourth downs. And remember that Matthew Stafford is not the new Baker Mayfield selling everything he can in advertisements (with his T-Mobile smirk dogging Detroit seemingly on perpetual loop) — if only the 49ers’ Jaquiski Tartt catches the wounded duck of a pass he threw up in the 4th quarter of the NFC Championship Game. Remember, Stafford led the NFL with 17 interceptions last year — and four were returned for pick-sixes. He becomes a national goat (the bad kind, not the G.O.A.T. kind) if Tartt catches that ball. This is a game defined by moments — and the Rams were beneficiaries of many fortunate breaks while winning their final three playoff games by just a field goal last year. Los Angeles only outgained their opponents by +27.2 Yards-Per-Game last year — and the roster has sustained some significant losses.

FINAL TAKE: It will be foolish to be committed to a “Fade Rams” campaign — it always is shortsighted to become an ideologue to these initial assumptions. Besides, we bet for or against numbers — not for or against teams. For this opener, I think it is the Rams who are overvalued against a Bills team not laying a field goal. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Buffalo Bills (451) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (172) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (171). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (0-0) returns 12 starters from their team that finished 11-2 after beating Utah in the Rose Bowl by a 48-45 score. Notre Dame (0-0) has 15 starters back from a team that finished 11-2 after a 37-35 loss to Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio State enters this season chippy after losing to Michigan last year and missing the College Football Playoff. Six starters are back on offense from a unit that led the nation by scoring 45.7 Points-Per-Game and 531.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Sophomore quarterback C.J. Stroud erased any doubt if the Buckeyes’ offense would slow down after the departures of Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson in the Rose Bowl — he completed 37 of 46 passes for a whopping 573 yards with six touchdown passes and one interception despite those star wide receivers opting out of that game. Stroud shredded a strong Utah defense under head coach Kyle Whittingham. Sophomore Jaxon Smith-Njigba demonstrated he could handle the top dog responsibilities at wide receiver by catching 15 balls for 347 yards and three touchdowns. Ohio State also returns running back TreVeyon Henderson who ran for 1248 yards and 15 touchdowns last year. Henderson forced 50 missed tackles on his 183 carries. The Buckeyes' offense is going to be just fine. And their defense should be much improved with nine of their top ten tacklers back from a group that allowed 22.8 PPG, ranking 38th in the nation. Fourth-year head coach Jason Day tapped one of the best defensive coordinators in the nation Jim Knowles to come to Columbus to upgrade the defense. Ohio State had the top statistical defense in 2019 while serving as a pipeline into the NFL — so their decline the last two seasons maybe just a product of regression after so much attrition. The Buckeyes are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games in September. Notre Dame is full of optimism under first-year head coach Marcus Freeman — but the 36-year-old may experience growing pains in learning these new responsibilities. He was the Irish’s head coach in the Fiesta Bowl when they blew a 28-7 first-half lead. Eight starters return on defense from a group that ranked 15th in the nation by allowing just 19.7 PPG — but they fall to 43rd in the country in giving up 359.5 total YPG so this may be an overrated group that got exposed by the Cowboys in the bowl game. The loss of safety Kyle Hamilton to the NFL will really hurt. On offense, Freeman has tapped sophomore Tyler Buchner as his starting quarterback. He is a dual-threat QB who too often wanted to run the ball in his time on the field last season. Accuracy is an issue for him — as well as three interceptions in his 35 pass attempts. To compete with the Buckeyes, he will need to be productive with the passing game — and that is a skill set he has yet to demonstrate at a high level. He does have the best tight end in the nation in All-American Michael Mayer — but the Irish lack explosive talent at wide receiver to complement his skills. Senior Avery Davis is out the year with a torn ACL. Perhaps sophomore Lorenzo Styles has a breakout season? It is the lack of skill position talent that played a role in Brian Kelly defecting to LSU before the bowl game. And it is this perpetual lack of top-end talent that explains why Notre Dame tends to fall flat against elite competition after beating up on their usual schedule of Purdue, Navy, and Boston College. The Fighting Irish have lost ten straight games on the road against top-ten teams with an average losing margin of -16.4 PPG. They have lost 11 games in a row on the road against top-five opponents with an average losing margin of -19.6 PPG — and seven of those losses were by 17 or more points. Notre Dame just seems to hit a ceiling against the best teams in the nation. They lost at home to Cincinnati by a 24-13 score last year. They lost 34-10 to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game in 2020 before getting smoked by Alabama in the Playoff Semifinals by a 31-14 score. They got crushed in Ann Arbor against Michigan by a 45-14 score in 2019. They lost to Clemson in the Playoff Semifinals in 2018 by a 30-3 score. Even in 2018 at Miami (FL), they lost by a 41-8 score. This team is no stranger to blowout losses. They have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 road games with the total set in the 56.5 to 63 range. And they may be without their potential All-American center Jarrett Patterson who is dealing with a foot sprain. He was limited in practice this week and is listed as questionable.

FINAL TAKE: Two intangibles favor Ohio State. Knowles was the defensive coordinator for Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl — so not only did he prep extensively against the Irish but the early failures of his defense will remain fresh in his mind. Notre Dame only scored seven points in the scorn half of that game. Additionally, Day has experience coaching against Freeman’s defense back in 2019 when the Irish played Cincinnati. The Buckeyes raced out to a 28-0 halftime lead before cruising to a 42-0 victory. 25* CFB Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Ohio State Buckeyes (172) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (171). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the University of Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (224) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (223). THE SITUATION: UTSA (0-0) returns 13 starters from the 12-2 team that won the Conference USA title before losing to San Diego State in the Frisco Bowl by a 38-24 score. Houston (0-0) has 11 starters back from their 12-2 team that lost to Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game before beating Auburn by a 17-13 score in the Birmingham Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS THE POINTS: UTSA returns eight starters on offense from the unit that finished 11th in the nation by scoring 36.9 Points-Per-Game. Sixth-year super senior Frank Harris is still under center — and he has his top four targets return in the passing game. Harris threw for 27 touchdowns last year while averaging 7.9 Yards-Per-Attempt. The dual-threat QB added 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry on the ground with 24 runs of more than 10 yards. The Roadrunners do lose running back Sincere McCormick to the NFL — but head coach Jeff Traylor brought in Trelon Smith from Arkansas as a transfer who has a career 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry mark. He will run behind an offensive line that has four returning starters and 121 combined starts of experience. UTSA has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home at the Alamodome — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog getting up to seven points. This team has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games in September. Houston comes off an impressive season — but they benefited from playing the 67th hardest schedule in the nation. Senior Clayton Thune returns at quarterback for a team that scored 35.9 PPG — but the Cougars ranked just 58th in the nation by generating 5.8 Yards-Per-Play and they only ranked 68th in Success Rate on offense. Houston only averaged 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry on the ground — and they were just 115th in the nation in Rushing Success Rate. The defense under head coach Dana Holgorsen was quite good as they ranked sixth in the nation by holding their opponents to 301.1 total YPG — but this unit is going to take a step or two back. The Cougars lost two All-AAC players on the defensive line in Logan Hall and David Anehih — and the secondary must replace their starting cornerback duo.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 32 road games when favored by up to 7 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. The Roadrunners are a talented and dangerous home dog who would love to knock off the Cougars. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the University of Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (224) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (223). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Old Dominion Monarchs (156) plus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (155). THE SITUATION: Old Dominion (0-0) returns 17 starters from a team that finished 6-7 last year after a 30-17 loss to Tulsa in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. Virginia Tech (0-0) has 11 starters back from their team that also finished 6-7 after a 54-10 loss to Maryland in the Pinstripe Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MONARCHS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a sneaky hard game for the Hokies who begin the tenure of first-year head coach Brent Pry. The defensive coordinator for Penn State for the last 11 seasons is considered a genius on that side of the ball — but not only will the assistant coach for more than 30 seasons now have the challenge of being the head coach, but he will also no longer have blue-chip recruits on defense to implement his game plans. Recruiting declined significantly for this program under head coach Justin Fuente who was let go before completing his sixth year with the program. Virginia Tech had below .500 season in three of the last four seasons. Seven starters return on defense but this is a major rebuild for Pry and defensive coordinator Chris Marve from a unit that ranked 76th in the nation by allowing 393.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Long gone are the days of Bud Foster with his “lunch pail defense” identity implanted on the defensive unit. The offense was bleak last season with the Hokies scoring only 23.7 PPG. Pry brought in third-year sophomore Grant Wells as a transfer from Marshall to run the offense — but while he demonstrated promise as a freshman with his strong arm, he is too loose with the football with 22 interceptions in his career including 13 last year. Wells will be throwing to a revamped group of receivers after 103 of the 173 catches last year came from players that are no longer on the team including do-it-all running back Raheem Blackshear. It looks like Pry wants the offense to become a run-first attack — and he poached Wisconsin offensive line coach Joe Rudolph to coach the offensive line — but it will take time to build this offense into something like how the Badgers operate. In the meantime, Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road. They will face a feisty and confident opponent in Old Dominion. After not playing in 2020 because of the pandemic, the Monarchs understandably started slowly under first-year head coach Ricky Rahne. But the team kept fighting and won five of their last six games after Rahne made a change at quarterback by turning to sophomore Hayden Wolff. After only averaging 19 PPG and 300.4 total YPG in their first five games, Old Dominion scored 28.1 PPG and generated 399.7 total YPG in their seven contests. Junior running back Blake Watson up his rushing average from 84.8 rushing YPG to 111.7 rushing YPG after Wolff took over as the starting quarterback. Ten starters are back on offense for this team including four on the offensive line. Five of the top six receivers are back as well. On defense, five of the top six tacklers are back from a group that held their final six opponents to 22 PPG. All four starters return on the defensive line from a group that ranked 29th in Expected Points Allowed per opponent rushing attempt and 11th in opponent Rush Explosiveness. The Monarchs also ranked 16th in the nation by giving up just 41 plays of 20 or more yards. Old Dominion has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in September — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: Pry and Rahne coached together at Penn State when Rahne was an offensive coordinator in Happy Valley from 2018-2019. While there will be familiarity between these two coaches, Rahne has the edge when it comes to knowing his players. Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the ACC — and the Monarchs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams outside their conference (as they enter the Sun Belt from Conference USA this season). 10* CFB Virginia Tech-Old Dominion ESPNU Special with the Old Dominion Monarchs (156) plus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (143) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (144). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (0-0) returns 11 starters from the team that finished 6-7 after an 18-6 loss to Minnesota in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. Pittsburgh (0-0) has 15 starters return from their group that finished 11-3 after a 31-21 loss to Michigan State in the Peach Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: West Virginia head coach Neal Brown is on the hot seat in his fourth season in Morgantown — but he made two significant moves for the offensive side of the ball to improve a unit that ranked 87th in the FBS last season by allowing 371.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Brown lured offensive coordinator Graham Harrell to install his Air Raid offense after he was let go from USC when they brought in Lincoln Riley. Harrell is considered one of the brightest young offensive minds in college football (and perhaps the brains behind the Kliff Kingsbury offenses at Texas Tech). But an even bigger get was the acquisition of quarterback J.T. Daniels from Georgia. I think Daniels is a credible Long Shot Bet to win the Heisman Trophy (200-1 odds at the Westgate earlier this week). He graduated early from his high school in South Anaheim and was recruited to play at USC as the High School National Player of the Year. He threw for over 12,000 yards in high school with 152 touchdown passes — and he was groomed to be the Trojans’ immediate starter as a freshman as they began their post-Sam Darnold era in 2018. He had 11 starts in that first year while showing flashes of brilliance including completing 26 of 31 passes in the first half of the Notre Dame game. But injuries held him back — and in his sophomore season with Harrell in his first year at USC as the offensive coordinator, he suffered a season-ending injury in the opening game of the 2019 season. That injury cost him the starting job — so he entered the transfer portal and chose Georgia. But coming off knee surgery, the onset of the COVID pandemic with its impact on practice time did Daniels no favors when competing against the steady hand of senior Stetson Bennett IV. When the Bulldogs fell to 4-2 on the season after a 44-29 loss to Florida, head coach Kirby Smart turned to Daniels as his starting quarterback for the final four games. Not only did Georgia win all four games, but Daniels demonstrated his vast potential by completing 80 of 119 passes for 1231 yards with ten touchdown passes and just two interceptions. The Bulldogs' offense averaged 37.3 Points-Per-Game in those final four games with Daniels’ strong arm unlocking a big-play element to the offense that did not exist with Bennett. Many forget that Daniels began last season as the incumbent starter for Georgia to open the 2021 season. The Bulldogs pulled off a 10-3 upset win in that game — but Daniels did not lead the team to a touchdown drive (Georgia’s defense set the tone that would define their National Championship season by scoring on a pick-six). Daniels completed 22 of 30 passes but in what was a low-risk game plan from offensive coordinator Todd Monken as he passes for just 135 yards. An oblique injury kept him out of the following game against UAB which gave Bennett another chance under center — and the former walk-on and fifth-year senior took full advantage by completing 10 of 12 passes for 288 yards and five touchdown passes. Daniels was ready to play the next week against South Carolina — and he completed 23 of 31 passes for 303 yards with three touchdown passes in the start to lead the Bulldogs to a 40-13 victory. But then a lat injury held him back the next week in a game where he split time with Bennett who continued to play at a very high level while protecting the football. Daniels would only throw 94 passes all season with 68 completions, 722 yards, and seven touchdown passes. He was perched to reclaim the starting quarterback job from Bennett if the Bulldogs ever stumbled — but Georgia had a spot in the playoffs locked before the SEC Championship Game where they lost to Alabama but having it only cost them in the final four seeding. Bennett would lead Georgia to the National Championship and was coming back as a super sixth-year senior. Daniels decided to transfer to a program where he could win the starting job while showing off his talents for the next level. He has three returning starters at wide receiver and a potential rising star in sophomore Kaden Prather who had a big spring. Junior Tony Mathis, Jr. is back at running back after peaching at the end of last season. All five starters return on the offensive line. Defense has been the calling card for Brown’s teams at West Virginia. After finishing fourth in the nation in total defense in 2020, the Mountaineers held their opponents to 350.1 total YPG, ranking 37th in the nation. This unit was 12th in the nation by allowing just 3.78 points per opponent’s quality possession. Four starters return — but Brown brought in seven FBS transfers and three junior college players to bolster the unit in this critical season. Six of the top seven players on the depth chart return on their defensive line which should help them tonight against a Panthers team that will likely return to focusing on their ground game. Pittsburgh is learning to live life without Kenny Pickett under center after he has been their starting quarterback for the last five seasons. Not only did he leave for the NFL, but offensive coordinator Mark Whipple left to become the OC at Nebraska. The Panthers were third in the nation by scoring 41.4 PPG — but without Whipple to challenge head coach Pat Narduzzi to embrace some of the principles of modern football, Pitt may return to “three yards and a cloud of dust”. Given that Narduzzi replaced Whipple with Boston College offensive coordinator and the former OC for Jeff Fisher for the St. Louis Rams, the successful passing attack that the Panthers had last year may be history. Remember, Pitt averaged only 21.2 PPG just two seasons ago. Ironically, Narduzzi recruited Kedon Slovis to transfer over to take over under center from USC — and it was Slovis who took the job away from Daniels in 2019 after his early season-ending injury. Slovis struggled last year during the Trojans’ 4-8 season — he completed 193 of 297 passes for 2153 yards with 11 touchdown passes but eight interceptions in a lost season where they lost four of their first seven games en route to a 4-8 finish with Helton fired midseason. Slovis was eventually benched for yet another highly touted freshman in Jaxson Dart — and he was not in the team’s plans when Riley brought his star sophomore quarterback with him from Oklahoma, Caleb Williams. The Panthers return seven on defense — but they may have lost two much star power from last year’s unit. The decision of former captain Cam Bright to transfer to Washington may be telling. The linebacker led a stout front seven — but this defense too often got burned when playing too aggressively. They ranked 115th in the nation by allowing 264.3 passing YPG — a bright sign for Daniels to open his season on a strong note. Pitt has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games at home when laying 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: The X-factor tonight is Harrell who not only has a previous history coaching Daniels — but he has been Slovis’ offensive coordinator for the entirety of his collegiate career. He will have the insight to help the Mountaineers’ defense. West Virginia has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in September — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB West Virginia-Pittsburgh ESPN Special with the West Virginia Mountaineers (143) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (102) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (101) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (13-7) advanced to the Super Bowl with their 27-24 upset win at Kansas City in overtime as a 7-point underdog on Sunday (January 30th). Los Angeles (15-5) joined them later that evening with their 20-17 victory against San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite. This game takes place in the Rams’ SoFi Stadium, making them the de-facto home team.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: The best player on the field in the AFC Championship Game was Joe Burrow. The stats say he completed 23 of 38 passes for 250 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. He miraculously avoided defensive tackle, Chris Jones, twice on a crucial play to run for a first down in the second half — part of the 25 yards he added on the ground. But his biggest influence remains in his unwavering belief that he will lead his team to a victory. This is what he did at LSU — and he is already doing it in Cincinnati. It is time to jump on board — and the evidence is staring at us. The Bengals have nine games this season against teams who made the playoffs. They won and covered the point spread in 7 of those contests. They beat and covered the point spread twice against Kansas City, Las Vegas, and Pittsburgh — and they beat and covered the point spread on the road against the AFC top-seeded team in Tennessee (that beat Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco, and these Rams in Los Angeles during the regular season). Furthermore, their two losses to playoff teams were against Green Bay and the 49ers by just a field goal in each occasion. The debate over whether or not this Bengals team is battle-tested is over. And while I was already sold on Burrow, the convincing case made by Cincinnati in their victory against the Chiefs was the play of their defense in holding Patrick Mahomes to just a field goal in the entire second half for the second time this month. The Bengals have not allowed more than 21 points in five of their last seven games — those two exceptions were against Kansas City in games where they still pulled off the victory. Cincinnati has now covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Additionally, the Bengals have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games if they are riding a point spread streak of at least three games (they enter the Super Bowl on a 7-0 ATS run). Cincinnati has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Cincinnati is a dangerous underdog playing with house money this early in Burrow’s career after entering the season with 150-1 odds to win the Super Bowl. Matthew Stafford, Sean McVay, and the rest of this Los Angeles team, on the other hand, have the weight of the world on them to win the Super Bowl. For the second straight season, a team will be playing in their home stadium for the Super Bowl — but I do not see the Rams enjoying the same advantage as the Buccaneers did last season. Los Angeles did not have the home crowd edge in their two games with the 49ers this month — it is highly unlikely they will have an overly partisan crowd advantage now. Staying at home in Los Angeles leaves this Rams roster full of big personalities with plenty of distractions that did not exist in Tampa Bay last year — and they do not have a Tom Brady providing executive leadership either. Playing at home may play into the pressure issues the Rams are already facing. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Regarding Stafford and his ability to handle pressure, if Jaquiski Tartt does not drop the wounded duck of a pass that he threw midway through the fourth quarter, the Niners might/probably win that game. The last time McVay had his team in the Super Bowl, they only scored three points in their 13-3 loss to New England in 2018. Looking at the team trends evidence, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after winning two games in a row. And while they have won six of their last seven games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Stafford did pass for 337 yards against San Francisco — but Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. The Rams played ten games against teams who made the playoffs this season — but they won only five of those contests (after winning three games in the postseason) while failing to cover the point spread in 6 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Underdogs have covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 games in this postseason starting in the divisional round of the playoffs. While I don’t consider that actionable evidence by itself, I do think it is illustrative that this NFL season has consisted of flawed teams competing for the championship. I don’t think either of these teams would fare well against the recent Super Bowl winners — but maybe that assessment is still under-appreciating what the Bengals have accomplished. Cincinnati has the edge at quarterback. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the Cincinnati Bengals (102) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.