At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (452) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (451). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-4) remained winless this season after their 30-16 loss at Green Bay on Monday as a 5-point underdog. Carolina (2-2) pulled off their second straight upset victory last Sunday with their 31-21 win at home against Arizona as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS: Atlanta has had success playing a short week after a game on Monday Night Football as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games at home after playing on MNF. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after losing four in a row. Atlanta’s secondary is a disaster right now with injuries — but head coach Dan Quinn activated rookie A.J. Terrell after he was diagnosed with COVID. Keanu Allen and Ricardo Allen might be able to play with both listed as questionable. The 403 yards they surrendered to the Packers was the lowest amount in their last three games — and not only have they covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game but they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 52 games after allowing at least 375 yards in two straight games. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now the Panthers go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Carolina has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. And in their last 26 games against teams with a losing record, they are just 7-18-1 ATS. The Panthers will be without defensive back Eli Apple who is out with a hamstring injury. Considering that Carolina is last in the NFL with only three sacks on the season, Matt Ryan should have a field day picking apart the Panthers secondary.

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC South opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight trips to Atlanta to face the Falcons. 10* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Atlanta Falcons (452) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (460) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (459). THE SITUATION: Houston (0-4) remained winless last week after their 31-23 upset loss at Minnesota last Sunday despite being a 3.5-point favorite. Jacksonville (1-3) has lost three straight games after their 33-25 loss at Cincinnati last week as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston sacked head coach and general manager Bill O’Brien after Sunday’s loss. The speculation is that J.J. Watt’s frustration with O’Brien finally boiled over which resulted in a verbal altercation between the two. When the star players begin to turn on you, then ownership needed to make a move to change the atmosphere. Because Watt demonstrated leadership to take on O’Brien in a move he had to think would cause waves, I expect a big from him and the rest of the team as they rally around each other and interim head coach Romeo Crennel who is universally-liked on the team. At 73-years old, Crennel not only replaces Pete Carroll as the league’s elder statesman at head coach but he will be the oldest head coach in NFL history. As it is, the Texans have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when staying at home after a loss at home. Houston has also covered the point spread in their last 3 games after an upset loss at home. The biggest problem for this team is their run defense as they rank last in the league by allowing 181.1 rushing YPG. They have allowed all four of their opponents to rush for at least 162 yards this season — but not only have they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yard in two straight games but they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in three straight games. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Jaguars’ defense has issues of their own after allowing the Bengals to rack up 505 yards last week with 205 of those yards coming on the ground. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 30 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards. The Jags will be without cornerback D.J. Hayden who was placed on injured reserve this week with a hamstring injury. Look for Deshaun Watson to have a big game against the inexperienced Jacksonville secondary. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. And in their last 9 games in October, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Teams that fired their head coach midseason have only covered the point spread twice in these last eight situations — but that limited sample size deserves some context. Often these moves are made later in the season when the team is out of playoff contention and planning their offseason. And often the fired head coach was generally liked and respected — Carolina laid an egg in their first game after Ron Rivera was fired late in the year as they appeared dejected with the move by ownership. I suspect the Houston players have had the Wizard of Oz on loop all week because they think that the “wicked witch is dead.” The Texans won both meetings between these two teams last season so they have to think this is a winnable game if they get back to basics. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Houston Texans (460) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (459). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (318) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (317). THE SITUATION: Clemson (3-0) is unbeaten so far this season after their 41-23 victory over Virginia last week as a 27.5-point favorite. Miami (3-0) is also undefeated on the season after they crushed Florida State two weeks ago by a 52-10 score as a 12-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Hurricanes look to be an improved team after second-year head coach Manny Diaz modernized his offense by bringing in former SMU offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee to implement his version of an up-tempo spread offense while matching him with former Houston QB D’Eriq King who transferred to the program in the offseason. Miami is 7th in the nation by averaging 43.3 PPG which is taking a lot of pressure off their usually-talented defense. But after playing UAB, Louisville (now 1-3), and the Seminoles (who are a mess), this is a significant upgrade in competition. Yet the Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Miami generated 517 yards of offense against Florida State after gaining 485 yards against Louisville — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after gaining at least 475 yards in two straight games. We are supposed to believe that this Hurricanes’ defense is loaded — but they did lose 25.5 of their sacks from last season. There are warning signs that this is not an elite unit. Louisville — the team Georgia Tech beat last night — generated 516 yards against them two weeks ago while exposing the Miami defense against both the run (209 rushing yards allowed) and the pass (307 passing yards allowed). The Hurricanes are allowing 3.96 Yards-Per-Carry which is 10th in the ACC in run defense. Miami’s Achilles heel in their bigger games last season was their suspect offensive line that struggled in the run game while surrendering 51 sacks which was the most of all Power Five conference teams. Four starters return from that group who are now coached by Garin Justice. They face a handful of future NFL players from this Clemson front seven that has racked up 27 tackles-for-loss along with 13 sacks already this season. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a win by at least 20 points. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Tigers allowed Virginia to generate 417 yards last week in their comfortable victory — and that lackluster effort is probably just what defensive coordinator Brent Venables needs to get his unit’s attention in practice this week. Clemson tends to raise their level of play at this point in the season. Since 2015, Dabo Swinney’s team is just 12-12-1 ATS against FBS opponents in their opening games through the first weekend in October. The offense averages 34.2 PPG in those contests with 42% of their victories being by at least three touchdowns. Swinney is still learning his team while experimenting with some things — and the schedule is usually pretty soft. However, from the second week of October through the rest of the season since 2015, the Tigers are 29-15-2 ATS with a 40.8 PPG scoring average along with 51% of their victories being by at least three touchdowns. After their 21-20 scare against the Cavaliers last year, Clemson’s next eight regular-season victories were by an averaging winning margin of +42.1 PPG with the team outgaining their opponents by +348 net YPG. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games. Furthermore, Clemson is 6-1-1 ATS in October — and the Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: This is Clemson’s first high-profile game since their 42-25 loss to LSU in the National Championship Game — so I expect Trevor Lawrence and company to be very motivated. This Miami team lacks big-game experience — and this is a program that has lost their last three opportunities to defeat a top-ten team. A paper tiger will be exposed to real tigers. 25* CBB ACC Game of the Month with the Clemson Tigers (318) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (317). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (352) minus the points versus the Texas-El Paso Miners (351). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (2-1) looks to bounce back from their 45-17 loss at BYU last Friday as a 24-point underdog. UTEP (3-1) returns to the field again after they upset UL-Monroe on the road two weeks ago by a 31-6 score as a 10-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Skip Holtz should see his team rebound from what was a tough assignment in Provo last week (we had BYU). Louisiana Tech has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Louisiana Tech usually plays much better at home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in October. UTEP is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread victory. The Miners did generate 512 yards of offense against the War Hawks defense last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Now UTEP stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games.

FINAL TAKE: The Miners are just 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 games against teams with a winning record. Louisiana Tech easily won last year’s meeting between these two teams by a 42-21 score where the Bulldogs were -17.5 road favorites. Expect another blowout win for an angry Louisiana Tech team. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (352) minus the points versus the Texas-El Paso Miners (351). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (358) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (357). THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (1-2) won their first game of the season last week with their 20-17 win at Middle Tennessee as a 7-point favorite. Marshall (2-0) takes the field again for the first time since September 19th where they upset Appalachian State by a 17-7 score as a 6-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky should build off their momentum as they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win. They are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. The Hilltoppers’ defense should keep them in this game. They returned nine starters from last year’s group that was 22nd in the nation by allowing just 20.1 PPG — and they were also 24th in the country by limiting their opponents to only 335.5 total YPG. Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 36 of their last 53 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 14 home games when getting the points. The biggest challenge for head coach Tyson Helton was deciding on his new starting quarterback — and losing all of spring practice to COVID-19 restrictions impaired that effort. Helton seems to have found his answer in Maryland grad transfer Tyrrel Pigrome who completed 21 of 36 passes for 188 yards for two touchdowns while adding another 55 rushing yards in last week’s win. Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring no more than 20 points in their last game. COVID has caused the cancellation of their scheduled games since that upset win over the Mountaineers — they may be rusty when facing hostile competition again tonight. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Thundering Herd have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games when laying the points.

FINAL TAKE: Western Kentucky will also be motivated to avenge a 26-23 loss to the Thundering Herd in last year’s meeting between these two teams as a 3.5-point underdog back on October 26th. Don’t be surprised if the Hilltoppers pull the upset — but take the points for some insurance. 20* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (358) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (357). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (306) plus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (305). THE SITUATION: Georgia Tech (1-2) has lost their last two games after their 37-20 upset loss at Syracuse as a 7.5-point favorite back on September 26th. Louisville (1-2) has also lost two straight games after their 23-20 loss at Pittsburgh as a 3-point underdog two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YELLOW JACKETS: Georgia Tech did outgain the Orange by +96 net yards in the loss — but a -4 net turnover margin did them in with Syracuse returning an interception back for a 43-yard touchdown. Freshman QB Jeff Sims threw four interceptions in that game. Turnovers are holding this team back — they had five turnovers and a -3 net turnover margin in their previous game which was a loss to Central Florida. Second-year head coach Geoff Collins made protecting the football a high priority in the two weeks off since that game. His teams have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing the turnover battle in two straight games going back to his time as the head coach at Temple. The Yellow Jackets are much improved from last year’s group that finished the season just 3-9. Nineteen starters are back from that team with another year under their belt learning new systems on both sides of the football since the eleven-year Paul Johnson era. Sims is a highly-touted recruit with a big arm and great touch — and he is protected by an offensive line that added three transfers from SEC schools to add bulk to that group. Georgia Tech has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss to an ACC rival. And Collins’ teams in his coaching tenure have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a loss to a conference rival. Louisville managed only 223 yards of offense in their loss to Pitt two weeks ago. Junior QB Micale Cunningham struggled by completing only 9 of 21 passes for just 107 yards with three interceptions. That loss came on the heels of a high-profile loss to Miami (FL) —and the Cardinals have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after losing two games in a row against ACC foes. Louisville returned sixteen starters from last year’s 8-5 team in head coach Scott Satterfield’s first year with the program. But the Cardinals stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games away from home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a bye week.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia Tech opened their season with a 16-13 win against Florida State that has not looked as impressive given the Seminoles results since that loss. But don’t underestimate the deflation that the Florida State team felt from blowing their double-digit lead to lose that opening game against a conference opponent. Louisville’s lone win was a 35-21 win against Western Kentucky. But the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games in October — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in expected higher scoring games with the Total set at 63 or higher. 10* CFB Louisville-Georgia Tech ESPN Special with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (306) plus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (302) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-1) lost their first game of the season on Sunday with their 19-11 loss at home to Indianapolis as a 3.5-point underdog. Tampa Bay (3-1) has won three straight games with their 38-31 win at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Nick Foles struggled in his first start in a Chicago uniform but he did look more in synch in the second half of that game where he led the offense to their only touchdown. He completed 26 of 42 passes for 249 yards. He did not get much help from the rushing game last week — but eight penalties that accounted for 103 total yards were killers for the Bears. The Chicago defense played well by limiting the Colts to only 289 total yards. And for the second straight game, the Bears lost the turnover battle. But Chicago has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 home games after enduring a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. The Bears are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Chicago is 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games as an underdog. Tampa Bay has won three in a row against less than the stellar competition with victories over Carolina and Denver before the Chargers last week. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Injuries will likely slow down this team this week. Quarterback Tom Brady did not have his top four wide receivers available to practice on Tuesday. Chris Godwin and Justin Watson are now out for this game with Mike Evan a game-time decision and Scottie Miller likely to play despite being questionable. Tight end O.J. Howard was already lost for the season on Sunday with his Achilles’ injury. This leaves Brady without many weapons — and while he might have been able to manufacture offense with the players he knew very well back in his New England days, playing on a short week with a new cast of characters and a new offense presents a much different challenge. Furthermore, while Brady completed 30 of his 46 passes for 369 yards last week against the Chargers in his best game as a Buccaneer, Tampa Bay is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a game where they passed for at least 250 yards. Furthermore, the Bucs are just 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games when favored — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Look for Chicago to play much better tonight than they did on Sunday. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (302) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (279) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (280). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-3) will be playing with desperation tonight after losing their third straight game last Sunday by a 30-26 score despite being a 2.5-point favorite. Green Bay (3-0) is unbeaten so far this season after they upset New Orleans last Sunday night by a 37-30 score on the road as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta had a 26-10 lead with 6 1/2 minutes to go in that game before surrendering the final 20 points in that game to lose to the Bears. That collapse came on the heels of them blowing a 39-24 lead with 5 minutes left in the game two weeks ago against the Cowboys in their 40-39 loss. The Falcons may not be able to keep a lead — but they remain competitive. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Atlanta is moving the ball on offense — they are scoring 30.0 PPG while averaging 419.0 total YPG. They generated 371 yards last week against the Bears — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They should be able to score against this Packers defense that is last in the NFL by allowing 6.6 Yards-Per-Play. Opposing quarterbacks have racked up a Passer Rating of 113.4 which is the 3rd highest in the league. Green Bay is also allowing opposing rushers to average 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The Falcons’ biggest problem is their defense that is ravaged with injuries in their secondary. They allowed the Bears to gain 437 yards last week after the Cowboys gained 570 yards against them. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Falcons have covered the point spread in 5 straight games on the road. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning three games in a row. The Packers have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games off a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. They will not have the services of their best wide receiver, Davante Adams, who will not play with a hamstring injury despite him participating in practice at the end of the week. Green Bay is dealing with a number of injuries with wide receiver Allan Lazard and linebacker Christian Kirksey out tonight.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Look for them to keep this game close and perhaps pull the upset. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Special Feature with the Atlanta Falcons (279) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (277) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (278). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (0-2-1) enters this game coming off a 23-23 tie with Cincinnati where they were 5.5-point favorites. San Francisco (2-1) returns home after winning their two games in the Meadowlands which concluded with their 36-9 win against the Giants last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: The 49ers are simply being asked to lay too many points in this situation. The Niners return home after winning both their games in the Meadowlands against the Jets and Giants. Those could be the two worst teams in the league this season — so let’s not start engraving San Francisco’ return to the Super Bowl just yet. As it is, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. They return home where they are just 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games when favored. They are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Jimmy Garoppolo remains out with his ankle injury so the offense will be led by backup Nick Mullens. San Francisco is dealing with a long list of injuries but the bigger concerns are on defense. Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, Dee Ford along with cornerbacks Emmanuel Moseley and Akhello Witherspoon are all out for this game. Much has been made of the struggles Carson Wentz is experiencing. He has lowest Passer Rating of all qualifying quarterbacks in the league. He is completing only 59.8% of his passes which is just 28th of qualifying NFL quarterbacks. He is working behind a depleted offensive line riddled with injuries. Yet despite all this, the Eagles did generate 381 yards last week with 185 of those yards coming on the ground. The good news for Wentz is the Miles Sanders has been upgraded to probable to offer him a credible rushing threat that should take some of the pressure off him. The running back has generated 190 rushing yards over his last two games with a crisp 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry average. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Turnovers are holding Philadelphia back as they have given the ball up eight times in their three games while forcing only one turnover this season. But turnovers tend to even out over time. The Eagles had a -2 net turnover margin last week — but they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Additionally, Philadelphia is allowing just 330.7 total YPG — and they are outgaining their opponents by 5.6 net YPG. They are playing better than their record. The Eagles go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: With Baltimore and Pittsburgh on deck, this is a critical game for the Eagles as they look for their first win on the season. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in October. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games in October. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia Eagles (277) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (251) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (252). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (2-1) enters this game coming off a 36-7 win over the New York Jets last Sunday as a 12.5-point favorite. Chicago (3-0) remains unbeaten this season after their 30-26 upset win at Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS MINUS THE POINTS: It seems son for many observers that the undefeated Bears are a home underdog in this situation — especially with this team liberated from Mitchell Trubisky with head coach Matt Nagy moving on to the veteran Nick Foles. Yet Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. And while the Bears generated 437 yards of offense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, while Chicago allowed the Lions to gain 371 yards in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in October. The Bears have not been dangerous underdogs as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when getting the points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record. Indianapolis scored two defensive touchdowns in their dominant win over the Giants — and their defense limited them to just 260 total yards. Philip Rivers was masterful running the offense as he completed 17 of 21 passes for 217 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions. The Colts have won two straight games with this win preceded by a 28-11 victory over the Giants — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Indy has also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after they won two straight games by at least two touchdowns. Indy is favored because of their still underrated defense. They lead the NFL by allowing only 225.3 total YPG — and their defense ranks top-five in run defense, pass defense, sacks, and interceptions.

FINAL TAKE: The Colts have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 road games when favored by no more than 3 points. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Chicago CBS-TV Special with the Indianapolis Colts (251) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (257) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (258). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (1-2) looks to rebound from their 31-13 upset loss at home on Thursday night in Week Three as a 2.5-point favorite. Cincinnati (0-2-1) comes off a tie last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: We had the Dolphins in that game — and Jacksonville did outgain the Dolphins +24 net yards despite only having the ball for 25:38 minutes in that game. The Jags fell behind to trail by a 21-7 score at halftime to get them out of their rushing attack. Look for the undrafted rookie running back James Robinson to have a good game against this Bengals run defense that is allowing 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry while ranking last in the NFL by allowing 182 rushing YPG. Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in the first month of the season. Additionally, the Jags have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents. Cincinnati eked out the tie despite being outgained by -77 net yards last Sunday. But the Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. The Eagles outrushed Cincinnati in that game by a 175 to 48 margin which is a bad sign for now hosting this Jacksonville team. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after being outrushed by at least 100 yards in their last game. Cincinnati surrendered 381 yards to that decimated Philly offense hit hard by injuries — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bengals return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have failed to cove the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when laying the points. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but take the points for some insurance) with the Jacksonville Jaguars (257) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the BYU Cougars (104) minus the points versus the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (103). THE SITUATION: BYU (2-0) enters this game coming off their 48-7 win over Troy last Saturday as a 14-point favorite. Louisiana Tech (2-0) is also unbeaten in their first two games of the season after their 66-38 victory over Houston-Baptist last week as a 23.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: BYU should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. The Cougars had to wait three weeks for that game after their opening win at Navy by a 55-3 score on September 7th. BYU has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after winning their last two games by at least four touchdowns. This Cougars’ offense may be the best one in the five years of head coach Kalani Sitake's tenure at Provo. BYU generated 666 yards of offense while controlling possession for over 40 minutes against the Trojans — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Cougars are scoring 51.5 PPG so far this season while accumulating 622.0 total YPG — so they can certainly cover the point spread tonight. The BYU defense is also playing quite well by holding their first two opponents to just 10 combined points along with just 230 total yards of offense. The Cougars host this game where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Louisiana Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on the road off a game where they covered the point spread as a double-digit favorite. But the defense remains an issue for this team that returned only two starters from last year’s group. The Bulldogs did not have spring practice because of COVID which is very important for the defense with a new coordinator in David Blackwell. They have allowed 34.0 PPG along with 447.07 total YPG this season.

FINAL TAKE: Louisiana Tech has not fared well when they appear vulnerable to getting blown out — they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games as an underdog getting 21.5 to 30 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games getting 21.5 to 28 points as the dog. 10* CFB Friday Night Discounted Deal with the BYU Cougars (104) minus the points versus the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Jets (102) minus the point(s) versus the Denver Broncos (101). THE SITUATION: New York (0-3) has lost their first three games this season after their 36-7 loss at Indianapolis on Sunday. Denver (0-3) is also winless so far this season with their 28-10 loss at home to Tampa Bay on Sunday as a 6-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS MINUS THE POINTS: New York has failed to cover the point spread in their three games this season — and rumors are flying that head coach Adam Gase may lose his job if his team loses tonight. The Jets have looked like the worst team in the league — and bettors are avoiding them tonight. But this team has cord the point spread in 26 of their last 43 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games and this includes them covering the spread in four of these last six situations. And while the New York defense has allowed at least 27 points in all three of their games, they have then covered the point spread in 3 straight games after allowing at least 25 points in their last game. The injuries have ravaged both teams, which is not a surprise considering neither of these teams has yet to win a game. But the news has been encouraging for the Jets side of things as the week has moved forward. Starting tackle George Fant, wide receiver Jamison Crowder, and cornerback Quincy Wilson have all been upgraded from questionable to probable. Those additions — especially Fant and Crowder — are important. Quarterback Sam Darnold has struggled this season but he should play better after throwing two pick-sixes last week. He will be the better quarterback on the field tonight. The Denver offense was considered a work in progress even before being hit hard by the injury bug. Quarterback Drew Lock is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. Jeff Driskel led an offense that generated only 226 yards last week. He was relieved by Brett Rypien in that game — and after the former undrafted QB out of Boise State completed 8 of 9 passes for 53 yards (and an interception in the end zone), head coach Vic Fangio named him the starter for this game despite it being played on a short week. Wide receiver Cortland Sutton is on the IR with an ACL injury while running back Phillip Lindsay is questionable with his injury. The defense is also riddled with a long list of injuries with Von Miller’s ankle injury that put him on IR being the most significant. They have forced only two turnovers this season. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss. And while they allowed 353 yards last week to the Buccaneers, they have are then just 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Denver opened as a small road favorite in the 2-point range before being bet too small underdog by today. The injury updates this week have mostly gone in the Jets’ direction. The Broncos have nine players on IR and linebacker Jeremiah Attaochu has been ruled out for tonight’s game. Either way, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the New York Jets (102) minus the point(s) versus the Denver Broncos (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (490) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (489). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-0) enters this showdown coming off a 33-16 win at Houston last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Kansas City (2-0) rallied from a 17-6 deficit in the 3rd quarter to defeat the Chargers in Los Angeles in overtime by a 23-20 score as an 8.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore comes into this game as the top team in the league in point differential with their 38-6 opening week against Cleveland. The Ravens have now won fourteen straight games in the regular season — and the 22 points they have allowed are the fewest in the league going into Week Three. Baltimore should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Ravens have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Baltimore has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in two straight contests. They return home to M&T Bank Stadium where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Kansas City is showing signs of a Super Bowl hangover — the successful Patrick Mahomes’ rally against the Chargers last week was the fourth time in their last five games where he had to lead his team back from a double-digit deficit. I think the hole they dug themselves in last week is a canary in the coal mine regarding the champs thinking they can turn on and off their switch. This Ravens team is the wrong group to do that against. The Chiefs were outgained by the Charger by 65 yards — and rookie quarterback Justin Herbert led an offense that racked up 479 yards against their defense in his first game as a professional. Not great, Bob. Run defense was one of the liabilities for Kansas City last season in their Super Bowl run — and they are allowing 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry this season which is resulting in 150.4 rushing YPG. They are allowing their opponents a 62% Success Rate in their ground game as well which is 30th in the league. Baltimore is averaging 168 rushing YPG so far this season while averaging 34 rushing attempts per game. The Chiefs are also just 22nd in the NFL in Explosive Play Rate allowed while ranking last in Explosive Pass Play Rate allowed. The tackling for the Kansas City defenders has been shoddy — a product of the lack of a normal preseason along with perhaps some champions’ complacency. These are all bad signs for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss where they failed to cover the point spread — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by 6 points or less. And in their last 8 games on field turf, the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has had this game circled all offseason after losing to the Chiefs last year by a 33-28 score on September 22nd — and that was after they lost to them in December of 2018 against Mahomes by a 27-24 score in overtime. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (490) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (489). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (488) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (487). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (1-1) looks to rebound from their 34-24 upset loss in Las Vegas against the Raiders on Monday as a 4-point favorite. Green Bay (2-0) has started the season unbeaten after defeating the Lions at home in Lambeau Field last week by a 42-21 score as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Sean Payton was livid with his team after they committed ten penalties accounting for 129 yards with five of those penalties accounting for first downs for the Raiders. The Saints are the most-penalized team in the league with 248 penalty yards after two games. Payton kept his team in Vegas overnight to discuss the mistakes his team has been making. Expect this team to come out on fire. As it is, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. New Orleans has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 38 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Drew Brees is getting plenty of criticism this week for not throwing the ball downfield. Is he losing arm strength? Yeah, probably — but that is probably an overrated quality (at least, Brett Favre and Phill Simms say so). Certainly Brees misses wide receiver Michael Thomas who will be out for this game with his ankle injury. But even without Thomas last week, Brees led an offense that averaged 7.44 Yards-Per-Play — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after averaging at least 6.5 Yards-Per-Play in their last contest. The problem for New Orleans besides the penalties — or, another result of the penalties that kept FIVE drives alive — was that they only had the ball for 23:42 minutes in that game. The Saints gained 424 yards on Monday — and they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. The short week should not be a problem as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games when playing with six days or less of rest. And in their last 41 games against teams with a winning record, New Orleans is 27-13-1 ATS. Before we crown the Packers the Super Bowl Championship for scoring 85 points in their first two games, lets remember that they did this against an injured Detroit defense and a Minnesota defense that lost five starters from last year’s team. Remember, Green Bay was outgained last season by their opponents but made it to the NFC Championship Game because they were 9-1 in one-possession games. They were closer to an 8-8/9-7 team, in practice, that a 13-3 team. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Additionally, they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers may be without Rodgers’ favorite target in Davante Adams after he injured his hamstring which kept him out of the second half last week against the Lions. Adams is going to try to play it looks like (and he is my fantasy line up tonight for Guinea Pig Nation) — but I am not optimistic. But Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Saints. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the New Orleans Saints (488) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (487). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (485) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (486). THE SITUATION: Dallas (1-1) looks to build off their miracle 40-39 victory over the Falcons in Atlanta last Sunday where they were 3-point favorites. Seattle (2-0) comes off a 35-30 victory at home over New England last Sunday night as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas should be emboldened from their late rally which saw them score 16 points in under five minutes to play in that game. The Cowboys did dominate Atlanta by generating 570 yards while outgaining them by +190 net yards. Dallas has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a win at home where they scored at least 31 points. And while the Cowboys trailed by a 29-10 score at halftime, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 road games after trailing by at least two touchdowns in their also game. And Dallas has also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 road games after allowing at least 35 points in their last contest. Seattle comes off an emotional win on national prime-time television against the Patriots. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and there will not be fans in the stand for this game given COVID-10 precautions. The Seahawks are also just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against fellow NFC opponents. While Russell Wilson is getting all the headlines, Seattle’s defense is a growing problem. New England outgained them last Sunday by a 464 to 429 margin. The lack of a credible pass rush is allowing opposing quarterbacks to tee-off against the Seahawks’ secondary. Seattle is last in the NFL by allowing 416 passing YPG — and the 485 total YPG they are allowing is also last in the league. Pay Dak his $$$! Prescott completed 33 of 47 passes for 450 yards in orchestrating the Cowboys’ comeback last week — and that offense was at its most effective when it was running through him rather than Ezekiel Elliott.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home when favored. The Cowboys are dangerous underdogs who have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games — and this includes them covering the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Dallas-Seattle Fox-TV Special with the Dallas Cowboys (485) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (486). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (462) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (461). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce back from their heartbreaking 35-30 loss at Seattle last Sunday night as a 4.5-point underdog where they failed to convert on the goal-line on the final play of the game that would have given them the victory. Las Vegas (2-0) comes off a triumphant 34-24 upset victory at home on Monday Night Football against New Orleans as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders earned an emotional win in their debut in their new Allegiant Stadium (down the road from the Hollywood Sports office) — but they now find themselves in a letdown situation after their perfect 2-0 start to the season. On a short week, Las Vegas has to make their second trip out east in three weeks to play at a 1 PM ET start — during a pandemic! — with the old 10 AM PT body clock problem. As it is, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 28 games after an upset victory as a home underdog. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win at home. The Raiders did generate 377 yards of offense against the Saints defense — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But the bigger concern is that they were outgained by -47 net yards with New Orleans generating 424 yards despite only having the football for less than 24 minutes in that game. The Saints also gifted the Raiders 129 yards from their ten penalties with five of them directly producing first downs. New Orleans averaged a whopping 7.44 Yards-Per-Play on Monday. They are allowing 6.54 YPP after two games. They are also just 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. New England should respond with a strong effort as they are 48-23-1 ATS in their last 72 games after a straight-up loss in the Bill Belichick era. The Patriots’ offense looks fantastic under the direction of (a completely healthy again) Cam Newton. After rushing the ball 15 times for 75 yards with two touchdowns in the opening week, he torched the Seahawks for 397 passing yards by completing 30 of 44 passes — and he added another 44 yards on the ground with two more rushing scores. These are all great signs for Belichick whose teams have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 42 games after scoring at least 30 points. New England outgained Seattle by a 464-429 margin despite losing on the scoreboard. The Patriots are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. New England needs to tighten things up on defense — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last game. Belichick is the best in the business in having his defense take away the opposing offenses’ best weapon — so that means plenty of attention Raiders’ tight end Darren Waller who caught 12 passes for 103 yards on Monday. Las Vegas receiving corps drops off after Waller and first-round draft pick Henry Ruggs III is still dealing with an injury. The Patriots return home where they are a decisive 43-21-3 ATS in their last 67 games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the total set at 45.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have been a great early story to the season — but they remain a team that averaged only 15 PPG over their final seven games while never topping 24 points so I am not completely sold that this is now a 30 PPG scoring attack despite scoring 68 points so far this season. This is also a team that got blown out by a 42-21 score to Tennessee, a 40-9 score at Kansas City, and a 34-3 score in New York to the Jets (!) in the final six weeks of the season. 25* NFL Blowout Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (462) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (395) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (396). THE SITUATION: Florida State (0-1) takes the field again after suffering a 16-13 upset loss at Georgia Tech two weeks ago on September 12th as a 13-point favorite. Miami (2-0) is unbeaten so far this season after they defeated Louisville on the road by a 47-34 score as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES PLUS THE POINTS: Things started well in the first game under first-year head coach Mike Norvell. Junior quarterback James Blackman led the offense to 10 points in their first two possessions — but then things went off the rails. Blackman turned the ball over twice on fumbles while throwing an interception and two others drives were stopped by failed 4th down conversions. The Seminoles generated 438 yards of offense but scored only three more points the rest of the way to suffer the upset despite outgaining the Yellow Jackets by +221 net yards. Florida State should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after suffering an upset loss to an ACC rival — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games after a loss by a touchdown or less against a conference foe. The Seminoles have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a game where neither team scored more than 17 points. Florida State will be a bit healthier for this game with FAU transfer Meiko Dotson and Hamsar Nasirildeen bolstering their defensive backfield after missing the Georgia Tech game. The team will also be inspired to play for Norvell who is not making the trip to Miami given quarantine protocols after he tested positive for COVID-19. I do think think his absence will negatively impact the Seminoles. He was able to work with the team remotely to help establish game plans and purpose for this showdown. While Norvell always has called the offensive plays going back to his four-year tenure as the head coach at Memphis, offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham who was his OC and quarterbacks coach for two seasons at Memphis will take on those responsibilities. Dillingham was the offensive coordinator for Auburn last season. Tight ends coach Chris Thomsen will handle the head coaching responsibilities with his head coaching experience at Abilene Christian from 2005 to 2011. Miami may be due for an emotional letdown after their big won on national television last week against the Cardinals. The Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win over a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Hurricanes defeated Louisville despite getting outgained by -31 net yards. Second-year head coach Manny Diaz has to be happy with his new-look offense behind transfer QB D’Eriq King as they generated 485 total yards last week — but Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. And while the Hurricanes also gained 495 yards against UAB in their opening game, they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after gaining at least 475 yards in two straight games. But the defense is an issue despite their 18 tackles-for-less that they have generated this season. Louisville torched them for 516 yards last week but it was the three takeaways and their +3 net turnover margin that made the winning difference in that game. Yet the Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not committing a turnover in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has not been a reliable favorite as of late as they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games when laying 10.5 to 14 points. Florida State has lost the last three meetings between these two teams after getting upset last year in Tallahassee by a 27-10 score as a 3-point underdog. Look for a close game between these in-state rivals. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Florida State Seminoles (395) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (396). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (455) plus the points versus the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (456). THE SITUATION: Middle Tennessee (0-2) is winless so far this season after getting crushed at home to Troy by a 47-14 score as a 1.5-point underdog last Saturday. UTSA (2-0) is unbeaten this season after they defeated Stephen F. Austin on Saturday by a 24-10 score as a 17-point favorite. This game was scheduled just last Saturday after Memphis canceled their game with the Roadrunners due to COVID-19 and the Blue Raiders had an open date today after Old Dominion canceled their football season last month.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Middle Tennessee is struggling — having their two high-profile transfer running backs in Amir Rash from Florida State and Martell Pettaway from West Virginia opt-out to play this season left head coach Rick Stockstill without a credible rushing attack to complement dual-threat quarterback Asher O’Hara. Opposing defenses are not being punished for backing off defending the Blue Raiders ground game to pay more attention to O’Hara’s running threat or their passing attack. And the Middle Tennessee defense is getting pounded. The Blue Raiders managed just 241 yards of offense last week against the Trojans while being on offense for just 24:15 minutes of that game. Well, in Stockstill I trust to right-the-ship. Middle Tennessee has rebounded to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a loss by at least four touchdowns. And while the Blue Raiders were outgained by a whopping 255 yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after being outgained by at least 225 yards. Furthermore, Middle Tennessee has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest. The Blue Raiders have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to gain more than 275 yards in their last game. Better production on offense will take the pressure off the Middle Tennessee defense that allowed 496 yards last week. The Blue Raiders have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 475 yards in their last game. And while they also allowed 42 points to Army in the opening game of the season, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 31 points in two straight games. UTSA has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Roadrunners remain a team that was just 4-8 last season — and those four victories were against teams that accrued only three victories against FBS opponents last season. UTSA has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games in September. Furthermore, the Roadrunners are just 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Don’t be surprised if junior quarterback Chase Cunningham gets more snaps under center for Middle Tennessee as he is a better pure passer than O’Hara. UTSA has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 home games when laying the points. 10* CFB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (455) plus the points versus the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (301) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-2) is winless in their first two games of the season after their 31-28 loss at home to Buffalo last Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. Jacksonville (1-1) comes off a 33-30 loss at Tennessee as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: There sure is a lot of love all of the sudden for this Jaguars’ team that was considered to be “tankin’ for Trevor” to get the opportunity to draft Trevor Lawrence as their franchise quarterback. But second-year QB Gardner Minshew is completing 75.4% of his passes with six touchdown passes and undrafted rookie running back James Robinson has emerged with 164 rushing yards to make their supporters understand why they released Leonard Fournette in training camp. Yet Jacksonville has still failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to an AFC South rival. And while Minshew threw for 339 yards against the Titans defense, the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. Keep in mind that it was Minshew’s two interceptions on Sunday that helped the Titans overcome being outgained by a 480 to 354 yardage margin to the Jaguars. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 43 of their last 69 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 100 yards. Minshew may be without one of his top targets in wide receiver D.J. Chark who is listed as questionable with a chest injury. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home game when favored. And not only have the Jaguars failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after surrendering at least 30 points. Miami has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and the have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two straight contests to AFC East rivals. In head coach Brian Flores I trust to get this team focused on a short week. Remember, this team was supposedly “tankin’ for Tua” last year before they rallied from an 0-7 start to the season by then winning five of their last nine games. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is inconsistent but it was the good version of him on Sunday as he completed 31 of 47 passes against an outstanding Bills defense for 328 passing yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. Getting wide receiver DeVante Parker healthy and back on the field is a big help for Fitzmagic — Parker has 78 catches for 1227 receiving yards with 10 touchdown passes in his last sixteen games. The Dolphins generated 410 yards of offense last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Miami has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: There is inherent value with the underdog in this one — and the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as the dog. Miami has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month is on the Miami Dolphins (301) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (290) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (289). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (1-0) comes off a 34-30 win at Carolina where they were 3-point favorites. New Orleans (1-0) enters this game coming off a 34-23 win at home to Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: This is one of the rare instances in professional sports where the home field advantage will be at it’s most diminished. Not only will there be no crowd support tonight given COVID-19 restrictions but head coach Jon Gruden’s team lacks a familiarity and comfort level edge (which I think is under-appreciated) since will be their very first game played at Allegiant Stadium. I have studied home advantage closely — especially over the summer when handicapping European soccer that began the crowd-free experiences in the globe’s Project Restart. Psychologists do make an argument that there is an edge for home teams given their sense of territoriality. It is a theory — and impossible to quantity since it is difficult to accurately measure this motivation. This Raiders team will certainly want to establish that their new “Death Star” is their “turf.” Las Vegas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home as an underdog — and while the “home” part is not a strong lagging indicator for this game, it is telling that they have performed better when their opponent lacks a home crowd and familiarity advantage. And while the Raiders did allow 260 passing yards last week to the Panthers, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And in their last 5 games on Monday Night Football, Las Vegas (as the Oakland Raiders) are 4-1-1 ATS. The final score for the Saints was a bit deceiving with one of their touchdowns being score from a 36-yard interception. New Orleans had a +3 net turnover margin — but they managed to generate only 271 yards of offense. This team has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games after enjoying a +3 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Saints averaged just 4.1 Yards-Per-Play against the Buccaneers which was the 2nd lowest average of all teams in Week One. Quarterback Drew Brees completed just 18 of his 30 passes for only 160 yards. His adjusted completion percentage was just 24th best in the league last week after missing a handful of open receivers. Maybe it was just one bad week without the benefit of the preseason — or maybe Father Time is beginning to catch up with the 41-year old. Brees will not have the benefit of his favorite target in Michael Thomas who is out with an ankle injury. The Saints did add wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders in the offseason — and I expect them to use running back Alvin Kamara as a slot receiver in passing downs — but this is an offensive not at full strength without their best weapon in the passing attack. Thomas caught a whopping 149 catches last year for 1725 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win over an NFC South rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit win over a divisional foe. The Saints were outgained in that contest against the Buccaneers by -41 yards last week. Tampa Bay was 2nd in the league last year with +15 net turnovers — but what happens to this team if they do not win the turnover battle?

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the first two weeks of the new season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in Week Two of the season under head coach Sean Payton. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Las Vegas Raiders (290) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (289). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (287) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (288). THE SITUATION: New England (1-0) won their opening game of the season last week with their 21-11 win over Miami as a 7-point favorite. Seattle (1-0) also won their debut to the 2020 season with their 38-25 victory over Atlanta where they closed as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England should build off their momentum from last week as they are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games after a point spread win. The new-look Cam Newton run offense was clicking on all cylinders last week as they generated 357 total yards of offense on the strength of 202 rushing yards on 42 rushing attempts. The analytics folks tend to dismiss time of possession — perhaps that is one of the reasons they tend to replicate coin flips when making ATS prognostications? I assign plenty of value to the Patriots’ controlling the clock for 34:49 minutes last week. Not only does that keep the opposing offense off the field, but it keeps your own defense relatively fresh with one or two fewer defensive possessions they have to play in the game. That makes a big deal when coaching-up younger players. It is telling that New England is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they are also an impressive 42-20-2 ATS in their last 64 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Cam Newton looked like a young man fully-healthy again with the mental reset of playing in a new environment. Don’t underestimate how much injuries have slowed him down since his Super Bowl run with Carolina a few years ago. Newton was an efficient 15 of 19 for 155 yards while averaging 8.2 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt last week. He also ran the ball 15 times for 75 yards with two touchdowns. When he is healthy, he is simply money in short-yardage situations. And don’t sleep on the New England defense despite losing a handful of players who opted-out this season. The Patriots’ secondary remains elite led by cornerback Stephon Gilmour. The front-seven is a work-in-progress which is why controlling possession is so important. New England limited the Dolphins to just 169 yards of offense last week while averaging a mere 4.6 Yards-Per-Play — and they forced three turnovers. Since the start of 2019, the Patriots lead the NFL in these defensive categories still: allowing 13.9 PPG; allowing only 275.5 total YPG; 28 interceptions; opponent Passer Rating of 61.7. New England has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. It is not often that Belichick-coached teams are underdogs — and New England is 34-15-3 ATS in their last 52 games when getting the points. Seattle defeated the (now 0-2) Falcons last week despite being outgained by -123 net yards in that game. The Seahawks surrendered a troubling 506 yards to Atlanta in that game. Seattle has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win. The defense improved significantly with the acquisition of Jamal Adams — but this team remains suspect with both their offensive and defensive lines. The Seahawks are just 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has the reputation for having a strong home-field advantage — but they will be without their “twelfth man advantage” with no fans in the crowd raising the decibel levels. As it is, the Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (287) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (272) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (271). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 21-11 loss at New England as a 7-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (1-0) comes off a 27-17 win at home against the New York Jets as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami struggled to generate offense against the tough Patriots defense — they managed only 169 yards of offense last week. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick struggled with three interceptions last week. But Fitzmagic has a nice track record when facing the Bills. In his last four games against Buffalo, Fitzpatrick is averaging 297.3 passing YPG while completing 68.8% of his passes with four touchdown passes and just one interception while posting a Passer Rating of 100.1. Head coach Brian Flores usually gets every ounce of talent from his roster — and he should have his team play hard this afternoon. The Dolphins have rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss on the road. Miami has also been a dangerous underdog under Flores as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when getting the points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as the underdog. Additionally, the Dolphins should have a home edge with the Bills traveling to muggy South Beach. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after a win at home against an AFC East rival. The Bills have also failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 30 games after a double-digit win over a divisional foe. Buffalo has sky-high expectations this season with New England perhaps taking a step back in the post-Tom Brady era. But the Bills are loaded with injuries — especially at linebacker with starters Matt Milano and stud Tremaine Edmunds out for this game. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has won the last three meetings between these two teams after sweeping both games last year. The Bills won in South Beach in the most recent encounter on November 17th by a 37-20 score as a 7-point favorite. Flores probably had Buffalo as his number one work priority in the offseason — and in Flores I trust. 25* AFC East Game of the Month with the Miami Dolphins (272) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (102) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (101). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (0-1) got shellacked in Baltimore against the Ravens by a 38-6 score as a 7-point underdog. Cincinnati (0-1) began the Joe Burrow era on Sunday with a disappointing 16-13 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: It is already a gut-check moment for this Cleveland team who cannot afford to start the season 0-2 with two losses against divisional rivals. This team is ravaged with injuries on both sides of the football (especially on defense) — but they did get some good news that wide receiver Jarvis Landry will likely be able to play tonight. This team is loaded with talent so the injuries are not nearly as devastating as what the Bengals are also facing. The formula for success should be to run the football with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt against a suspect Cincinnati defense to set up the play-action pass to Landry and Odell Beckham. Falling behind by a 24-6 score by halftime took Cleveland out of what they want to accomplish on offense with their running game. Yet Chubb and Hunt were the only running backs in Week One to average over 3.0 Yards-After-Contact (Chubb: 3.5 Yards-After-Contact average; Hunt: 3.3 Yards-After-Contact average) — so the potential is there for them to dominate this Bengals defense. If and when the Browns take the lead, they will get the Bengals to play from behind which will afford Myles Garrett and company to expose a weak and depleted offensive line to attack a rookie quarterback playing on a short week. That recipe is easier to execute than asking a new head coach Kevin Stefanski to have his team ready to play a 14-win Baltimore team with new schemes and a new coaching staff without the benefit of preseason games in the opening week of the season. Cleveland should respond with a better effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least four touchdowns to an AFC North rival. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last game. Additionally, the Browns are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games at home as a favorite. Cincinnati only generated 295 yards of offense last week against the Chargers’ defense. Burrow completed 23 of 36 passes for 193 yards with no touchdown passes and an interception — but he was not given much time. Burrow averaged only 2.21 seconds per throw in his 36 attempts which is not much time for a rookie quarterback. The Bengals have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL — and that unit will be without right guard Xavier Su’a-Filo who is out with an ankle injury. Now the rookie quarterback is challenged with learning from his mistakes on Sunday while preparing for the Browns defense on a short week. Rookie quarterbacks have a dismal record in the first half of the season when playing on a short week for Thursday Night Football. These rookie QBs have only won once in seven starts while throwing ten interceptions to just one touchdown. Cincinnati is also banged up on defense with defensive tackles Geno Atkins and Mike Daniels out tonight and starting cornerback Trae Waynes already on injured reserve. Moving forward, the Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after playing a low-scoring game that finished Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing on Thursday Night. The Browns will play much better tonight simply by substituting out a loaded Ravens team for this Bengals group. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Browns (102) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (477) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (478). THE SITUATION: Dallas (0-0) begins the new era of head coach Mike McCarthy tonight as he replaces Jason Garrett after his ten-year tenure ended with the Cowboys’ 8-8 finish last season. Los Angeles (0-0) looks to get back to the playoffs after missing the postseason last year despite their 9-7 record.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): I was leaning to taking Dallas in this game before conducting my deep dive — and I am more convinced after that survey while being pleasantly surprised that the steam has been on the Rams to make them a small favorite in many spots. I think the oddsmakers were right to install Dallas as the initial favorite. They deserved better last season. They outscored their opponents by +7.0 PPG while outgaining them by +104.5 net YPG. Those are numbers that usually equate with teams that finish in the 11-5 range. What happened? The Cowboys endured five net close losses in their six games decided by one possession. That is the ultimate reason why Garrett is gone a former Super Bowl-winning head coach is now in charge. McCarthy is not enlisted to win more close games but to also oversee his team pulling away in games they are winning so they do not get decided by one or two bad breaks. Dallas was a very good road team last year who outgained their opponents by +65.8 YPG away from home. This consistency also made Dallas a very live dog. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when getting the points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games on the road with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Los Angeles hosts this game but does has only the thinnest of home-field advantages. Without fans, these home teams lack the energy that a crowd can offer. In the NFL, that does play more of a role than the other sports taking place right now because loud stadiums disrupt the quarterback’s ability to communicate at the line of scrimmage. The noise the NFL is allowing home teams to pipe into their stadium is so minimal it has little effect. Prescott will be able to audible verbally at the line of scrimmage tonight without any issues. But the Rams are also making their debut in their new SoFi Stadium — so they do not even get the underrated advantage of familiarity when playing at home. Head coach Sean McVay’s team has had two practices in their new facility — big deal.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles was actually outgained and outscored when playing at home last year — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Would the Rams be favored if this game was being played on a neutral field? I don’t think so — and this is essentially what SoFi Stadium is for McVay’s team without cheering fans in the stadium nor a sense of familiarity or comfort in the confines. Dallas crushed LA last December 15th by a 44-21 score. While I do not expect another 23-point win, are the changes between these two teams that dramatic? I think this Cowboys team is better with McCarthy leading the way. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Dallas Cowboys (477) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (476) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (475). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (0-0) returns to the field again after losing in overtime in the NFC Divisional Playoffs to Minnesota last year by a 26-20 score. Tampa Bay (0-0) comes in with big expectations after signing Tom Brady in the offseason to upgrade their team that finished 7-9 last season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Buccaneers are a trendy Super Bowl pick with Brady joining a team loaded with offensive talent along with an underrated defense. But I suspect that it will take some time for this team to begin to gel on offense. Tampa Bay could have used preseason games to help get Brady and his offense in synch against hostile competition. Brady had a tendency to start slow with the Patriots — they were just 4-4 ATS in their last eight games played in September. He may not have one of his best weapons available to him either with wide receiver Mike Evans listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. In theory, Brady improves this team because he will eliminate all the interceptions that Jameis Winston threw over the years. But on the other hand, the Buccaneers were 3rd in the NFL last year by scoring 28.6 PPG while averaging 397.3 total YPG — and there is no guarantee that this offense maintains that level of productivity under Brady who does not have as strong an arm as Winston. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC South opponents. The Buccaneers are also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road as an underdog. New Orleans has a big edge in continuity with Drew Brees and the entire coaching staff returning to make one last push for another Super Bowl championship. The Saints have few weaknesses with all their units on both sides of the ball being at least considered above average — and they have an elite offensive line along with their special teams. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games in the first half of the season. They also have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Brady inherits a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with the Saints. The continuity edge for New Orleans should help them exceed point spread expectations in this Week One showdown. 10* NFL Tampa Bay-New Orleans Fox-TV Special with the New Orleans Saints (476) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (452) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (451). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (0-0) kicks off the 2020-21 season at home after their 31-20 triumph in the Super Bowl over San Francisco. Houston (0-0) has the first crack at them with revenge on their minds after losing to them at Arrowhead Stadium by a 51-31 score. There will be fans in the stadium tonight with capacity capped around 22% given concerns social distancing protocols.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: If the importance of coaching staff will be even more significant after an offseason adapting to COVID-19 and the lack of preseason games, then assign a big advantage to Andy Reid and his assistants. Reid’s success coming off bye weeks have become legendary — but he usually also gets his team to outperform expectations early in the season. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games in September — and this includes them covering the point spread in four of their last five opening games to a new season. The Chiefs will also have the benefit of continuity with twenty of their twenty-two starters back from last year’s championship team along with the entire coaching staff. Kansas City is without their Super Bowl starting running back in Damien Williams who opted out due to COVID-19 concerns — but they addressed that issue by drafting LSU running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the first round. The rookie has been compared to pass-catching running backs like Darren Sproules — but assistant coach Kevin Faulk made the eye-popping comparison to Barry Sanders which would make this offense downright scary if even close to being accurate. The Kansas City defense did improve in the second half of the season under first-year defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo — they led the NFL after Week Ten by holding their opponents to just 11.5 PPG with Baltimore being the next stingiest by limiting teams to only 13.3 PPG during that span through the regular season. Spagnuolo runs a complicated system that takes time for defenses to master — so a big jump in competency for this unit now in his second season is likely. The Chiefs are led by safety Tyrann Mathieu who may very well have been the most valuable player on defense in the league last year. Kansas City will have the advantage of familiarity playing at home tonight where they are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games. The Chiefs are also 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games when favored. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Texans’ big move in the offseason was trading wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona for running back David Johnson. Houston has an interesting set of wide receivers that are probably underrated — but it will take for them to gel with quarterback Deshaun Watson. Brandin Cooks was brought in from the Rams but he is listed as questionable with a quad injury for this game. The absence of Hopkins in being Watson’s go-to receiver will have its biggest impact early in the season. And while I think head coach Bill O’Brien is too often a punching bag for pundits, a fair assessment would be that he may face bigger obstacles in getting his team ready to play this season. The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in the opening two weeks of the season. Furthermore, Houston’s 10-6 regular season record was deceptive of a team that was both outscored and outgained by their opponents during the regular season. The Texans survived +5 net close victories decided by one-scoring possession last year. They only held a lead for just over 37% of their games last year as well.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 appearances on Thursday Night Football. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (452) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the South Alabama Jaguars (235) plus the points versus the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (236). THE SITUATION: South Alabama (0-0) returns fifteen starters from last year’s hard-luck 2-10 team. Southern Mississippi (0-0) returns eleven starters from last year’s team that finished 7-6 after losing to Tulane in the Armed Forces Bowl by a 30-13 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS: Welcome to pandemic college football — and these are two teams that were not able to hold spring practices given COVID-19 concerns. It is always a challenge for players to learn new systems when the offensive and defensive coordinators change — but not to have spring practice to begin making these changes will likely lead to sloppy play. 5th-year head coach Jay Hopson has two new coordinators in offensive coordinator Matt Kubik and defensive coordinator Tony Pecoraro. This adjustment is a big challenge for the Golden Eagles. The defense also lost three of their top returning starters from each level of the defense with defensive end Jacques Turner, linebacker Racheem Boothe, and free safety Shannon Showers all decided to transfer after the pandemic hit to alter the college football season. The lack of a crown also takes away a big part of the Southern Miss home-field advantage — this team begins the season on a 21-8 straight-up run at “the Rock.” The Golden Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games when laying 14.5 to 17 points. The offense returns eight starters led third-year starting quarterback Jack Abraham. Interceptions are a problem for the senior has he threw fifteen picks last year with eleven coming in his final seven games — and that is not an ideal situation for a QB facing hostile competition for the first time with a new coordinator without the benefit of spring practice. Abraham will be without his key weapon from last year in wide receiver Quez Watkins who left early for the NFL after his junior season. South Alabama does have the benefit of continuity with offensive coordinator Kenny Edenfield and defensive coordinator Greg Stewart both back this season. This is a critical season for third-year head coach Steve Campbell who is just 5-19 in two seasons at South Alabama. The Jaguars were better than a two-win team last year. They outgained Nebraska in their opening game but lost due to giving up three touchdowns from the Cornhuskers defense and special teams. They lost to a good Georgia Southern team in overtime. They missed a field goal with 1:08 left in the game in a 2-point loss to Texas State. They outgained UL-Lafayette by a 467 to 391 margin a loss. And they closed out their season strong with an upset victory over Arkansas State in their home finale. Campbell may have found his answer at quarterback in sophomore Desmond Trotter who started the last four games of the season. The offense averaged 26 PPG along with 409 YPG under Trotter which was big improvements over the 14.6 PPG and 290.4 total YPG they were averaging in their first eight games. The defense returns six of the top eight tacklers from last season. Campbell also brought in eight junior college transfers including three from his former coaching location at Mississippi Gulf Coast who won the national junior college championship last season. South Alabama has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 road games in the first half of the season as an underdog. The Jaguars have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting 14.5 to 21 points.

FINAL TAKE: South Alabama has a big edge in continuity from last year — and I do not think the gap between these two teams was a large as the point spread suggests. Southern Miss has lost their last four home openers when hosting an FBS opponent. 10* CFB South Alabama-Southern Miss CBS Sports Network Special with the South Alabama Jaguars (235) plus the points versus the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (236). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (102) minus the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (101). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-4) has won eight straight games with their 35-24 victory over Tennessee on January 19th in the AFC Conference Championship Game as a 7.5-point favorite. San Francisco (15-3) joined them in the Super Bowl later that day with their 37-20 victory over Green Bay as an 8-point favorite. The Super Bowl will be played on a neutral field in Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Frankly, I began to consider Kansas City a team of destiny when they rallied from their 24-0 deficit to Houston to win that game by a 51-31 score in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. With New England losing to the Titans that weekend, it just looked like the seas were beginning to part for head coach Andy Reid to finally win his first Super Bowl after long being considered one of the dean’s of NFL coaches. Reid has led his teams to victory in twenty-one of their last twenty-four games after a bye week with his teams also posting a 19-9 ATS record after a bye week in his coaching career. After everything went as I expected in both Conference Championship Games, I was prepared to officially endorse the Chiefs in this game — but I decided to wait to watch the line movement for a few days while also clearing my head to help ensure I was not succumbing to confirmation bias. The best argument for the San Francisco side of the equation relates to the success of underdogs in the Super Bowl coming in with the better defense. So I looked at the Chiefs record against Top-Ten defenses (as decided by the weighted DVOA metric at Football Outsiders). Kansas City faced three top-seven defenses this season: at New England (#4th in DVOA weighted defense); home to Minnesota (#7th in DVOA weighted defense); home to Baltimore (#2nd in DVOA weighted defense). The Chiefs won all three games with the average score being 27.3-22.3. Furthermore, Kansas City averaged 408.7 YPG in those three games with 288 of those yards coming in the air at a 7.71 Yards-Per-Attempt clip — and those numbers compare pretty favorably to their 29.8 PPG, 383.4 total YPG and 283 passing YPG at a 7.9 YPA season average entering this game. The most telling game seems to be the Chiefs’ 33-28 win against the Ravens since the Baltimore team’s physical presence along with their emphasis on a power rushing attack is similar to the San Francisco formula for success. I then looked at how Kansas City performed against Top-Ten rushing attacks (as defined by DVOA). The Chiefs had five games against Top-Eight rushing offenses according to DVOA. I threw out the loss to Green Bay since that was one of the two games that Patrick Mahomes missed due to injury. Kansas City was 2-2 in those other four games as they defeated the Ravens while losing to Indianapolis and splitting two games with the Titans. The average score in those two games was 28.3 to 26.8 in favor of the Chiefs. And while they allowed 173.3 rushing YPG in those four contests with opposing rushers averaging 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry, that did not stop the Mahomes-led offense to average 440.3 total YPG (almost 60 YPG above their season average). With those past results, I am unpersuaded that the elite 49ers defense nor their ability to effectively run the football will significantly slow down Mahomes and this powerful KC offense. It is hard to then ignore that the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least two in a row by double-digits. Kansas City has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game including those last four situations. San Francisco is riding high after their easy win over the Packers where they raced out to a 24-0 halftime lead. But the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 35 of their last 54 road games after a victory by at least 14 points. Furthermore, San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. The red flag regarding the outstanding 49ers’ defense is they have tended to struggle against mobile quarterbacks. In looking at their four games against NFC West rivals Seattle and Arizona with Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray along with their game against Baltimore with Lamar Jackson, San Francisco did win just three of those games with the average scoring being 26.2-23.8 (and while that is still a winning margin, it is -9.9 net PPG plummet from their +12.3 PPG net differential for the season). The Niners held the offenses in those five games to 318 YPG which is still very low — but it is also +39 YPG more than their season average. Those quarterbacks completed 67.5% of their 154 combined passes in those games while averaging 192.0 passing YPG which was +22.8 passing YPG above their season average. Perhaps most importantly for this game, the quarterbacks ran for a combined 284 yards in those five games on 43 carries for 6.6 Yards-Per-Carry average while adding 56.8 rushing YPG. What is critical about these rushing numbers is that they are more likely to occur on 3rd and 4th downs and/or in the Red Zone. Mahomes is usually frugal when deciding to run the football — but he did average 15.6 rushing YPG this season on 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry. This is an area where he may take advantage of the Niners’ outstanding four-man rush. Mahomes will likely also pick on 49ers’ cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon who Pro Football Focus ranks as the 50th of the 95 cornerbacks who had at least 300 snaps this season. Witherspoon has wilted at times this season when his confidence gets shaken while struggling in the Red Zone — and this Chiefs’ offense is loaded with weapons that will preclude the Niners from hiding Witherspoon. The Niners did bench Witherspoon in the playoffs for undrafted free agent Emmanuel Moseley — but at 5’11 and 190-lbs, he is a matchup nightmare against the 6’5 and 260-lb Travis Kelce even if his player was an improvement over Witherspoon. Kansas City is 5th in the NFL by averaging 281.1 passing YPG — and the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after eight games into the season against teams who average at least 260 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Once I concluded that the San Francisco defense is not likely to slow down Mahomes and this Chiefs’ offense, the edge Kansas City has at quarterback will likely be the difference. Jimmy Garoppolo is a fine QB who has executed quite well on 3rd down and deserves tons of credit for outdueling Drew Brees in the Niners’ 48-46 win in New Orleans. But Garoppolo is still a bit inexperienced in big games when compared to Mahomes who was winning a coin flip away from winning the AFC Championship Game in overtime last year against the Patriots from reaching the Super Bowl. There are also some throws that Garoppolo struggles with as he continues to develop. While it doesn’t mean everything, it does something that head coach Kyle Shanahan asked Garoppolo to throw the ball only 14 times after his bad interception in the NFC Divisional Playoff round game against Minnesota. Frankly, probably every QB in the NFL right now is at a disadvantage to Mahomes. KC also has a decided edge in Special Teams in this game. With the point spread closer to pick ‘em than the hook, look for Superman Mahomes to fulfill what seems to be his destiny while finally codifying Reid in the pantheon of the elite head coaches in NFL history. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (102) minus the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (312) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (311). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (14-3) has won three straight games after they dispatched of Minnesota last week by a 27-10 score as a 7-point favorite. Green Bay (14-3) has won six straight games with their 28-23 win over Seattle last week as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning at least three games in a row. This Green Bay team has been difficult to figure out when considering that they are being outgained this season. The Packers have seen ten of their opponents win the yardage battle against them which is a hard way to win fourteen of one’s seventeen games. The football analytics community is well behind other sports (most notably, basketball) in appreciating that, while winning or losing close games often is a function of luck (or, better phrased: coin flip situations that can go either way that then have a disproportionate impact on the outcome of the game), there are attributes that help teams win close games. Free throw proficiency helps teams win close games in basketball. Outstanding quarterback play helps teams win close games in football. Aaron Rodgers may have seen his productivity decline since 2016 — but he is still very good in crunch time (and he avoids negative plays like interceptions). So, having said all that regarding my appreciation for this Packers’ team, this is a bad matchup for them. San Francisco controls the clock on offense for 32:01 minutes per game — and Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams who average at least 32 minutes per game on offense. The Niners are 2nd in the NFL by averaging 29.9 PPG — and the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 24 PPG. And while the San Francisco defense holds their opponents to just 5.2 Passing Yards-Per-Attempt, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who do not allow more than 5.2 YPA in the passing game after eight games into the season. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win at home. The 49ers have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The San Francisco defense flexed their muscles in that game by holding the Vikings to just 147 total yards. The 49ers have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 200 yards in their last contest. And while their game last week finished well below the 44.5 point total, San Francisco has then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Niners defense ranks 2nd in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 281.8 total YPG — and this unit has been fortified with the return of Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford from injuries. The 49ers get to host this game in Levi Stadium where they are 7-2 this season with an average winning margin of +13.2 PPG. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The 49ers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay is looking to avenge a 37-8 loss at San Francisco back on November 24th. A concern with this Packers team is that they are soft on the offensive and defensive line — and the physical 49ers were able to expose that vulnerability. Maybe (probably). I am persuaded with Green Bay failing to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when attempting to avenge a loss where they surrendered at least 28 points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least four touchdowns. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (312) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (313). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-4) rallied from a 24-0 deficit last Sunday to crush Houston by a 51-31 score. Tennessee (11-7) comes off a 28-12 upset win at Baltimore as a 10-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: I suspect that the Titans are due for a huge emotional letdown after pulling off two straight upset victories. Tennessee has been on the road for three straight weeks — and pulling off three “must-win” games away from home is a very difficult achievement. Asking this team to pull this feat on the road for a fourth consecutive week is simply a bridge too far. As it is, the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Tennessee has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after pulling off an upset win by at least 14 points on the road as an underdog. Furthermore, the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least three straight games. The formula for success for this team is to run Derrick Henry against the suspect Chiefs run defense. However, that is a plan that will not work if Kansas City takes an early lead which I expect them to do on their home field. Even during their three-game winning streak, Tennessee has been outgained by -33.0 YPG. And in their ten games on the road, the Titans have been outgained by -2.3 net YPG despite their 7-3 record away from home. Additionally, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Kansas City should build off their momentum from last week as they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Chiefs are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a victory by at least two touchdowns. Kansas City generated 434 yards of offense against the Houston defense in that win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. But the Chiefs defense did look vulnerable by allowing 442 yards to the Texans. However, Kansas City is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The Chiefs get to host this game in Arrowhead Stadium where they have outscored their opponents by +6.6 PPG. They have also outscored their last three opponents by +17.7 PPG while putting up 36.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. The Chiefs average 281.1 passing YPG — and the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after eight games into the season against teams who average at least 260 passing YPG. 20* NFL Tennessee-Kansas City CBS-TV Special with the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, January 13th, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (283) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (284) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Clemson (14-0) reached the National Championship game for the second straight season with their 29-23 win over Ohio State on December 28th as a 2.5-point favorite. LSU (14-0) joined them earlier that day with their 63-28 blowout win over Oklahoma as a 16.5-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE CLEMSON PLUS THE POINTS: The various Power Ranking quantitive analytical forecasts for this game have things closer to a pick ‘em — LSU entered the playoffs overvalued and those inclinations were rewarded with their blowout victory over the Sooners. Both semifinals games were an interesting example of how one or two big plays can dramatically swing the balance of the game. Clemson was on the verge of being blown out by the Buckeyes before a targeting penalty was called on a questionable hit on quarterback Trevor Lawrence. That resurrected a dead drive which the Tigers then scored a touchdown to completely reverse the momentum of that game. Oklahoma might have seen the same fortune if an obvious pass interference call was made to sustain an early drive for them — instead, the refs missed it and a frustrated defense was soon called for targeting themselves which not only fueled another LSU touchdown but resulted in an undermanned Sooners’ defense seeing a key defensive back ejected from the game. And the route was on. LSU has now covered the point spread in three straight games after gaining a whopping 532 total yards against an Oklahoma defense missing several key pieces via team suspension and then that in-game ejection. But LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. I am still not sold on this LSU defense that has surrendered 29.3 PPG along with 429.6 total YPG in their seven games away from home. They held their last three opponents to just 15.0 PPG but those games were against a tapped-out Texas A&M team along with an offensively-challenged Georgia group before the Sooners. LSU allowed more than 450 yards in four of their games with Texas, Florida, Ole Miss, and Alabama all scoring at least 28 points against them. Clemson took their first big punch to the mouth this season but got off the mat to defeat an Ohio State team I think is at least as talented as LSU. The quants that measure in-season performance mostly rated Ohio and LSU as the better team — but those quantitative assessments do not take into account anything from last season. Dabo Swinney returned twelve starters from last year’s perfect 15-0 national champion squad including is a phenom at quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. I am just not going to hand out any demerits for the Tigers' failure to overly impress the College Football Playoff committee by failing to generate enough style points against teams like Syracuse and North Carolina early in their schedule. Given that Clemson was likely to reach the playoff even if they suffered an early-season loss, it was reasonable for Swinney to prime his team to play their best football in the second half of the season. Clemson has now allowed only 42 combined points in their last three playoff games over the last two seasons. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 bowl games. Clemson has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record including their last seven contests against winners — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. The Tigers are rarely the underdog — but they have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 55 games when getting points. Swinney’s teams at Clemson have also covered the point spread in 8 of their 9 postseason games as an underdog while pulling the upset six times. Additionally, Clemson has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on a neutral field as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: LSU will have a geographical advantage with this game being played 81.3 miles away from their Baton Rouge campus. I just do not assign much value at all to the potential crowd noise that a team may enjoy on a neutral field. The familiar environment along with the routine of being at home play as much (or more) of a role for home-field advantage than potential crowd noise — especially in a dome where the audience cheering and yelling tends to get drowned out. However, I think the championship experience that this Clemson team enjoys over LSU’s players and coaching staff gives them another big edge. 25* CFB National Championship Game *A-List* Special with the Clemson Tigers (283) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (307) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (308). THE SITUATION: Seattle (12-5) snapped a two-game losing streak last week with their 17-9 upset win at Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog. Green Bay (13-3) has won five straight games after they closed out the regular season with a 23-20 win at Detroit as a 13.5-point favorite back on December 29th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Even with all their injuries at running back and on the offensive line, Seattle generated 382 yards of offense against the solid Eagles defense that had been holding their visitors to just 273.6 YPG before that game. In Russell Wilson, we trust. He completed 18 of 30 passes for 325 yards with a touchdown while adding another 45 yards on the ground. Wilson did not throw an interception in that game either — and his mere 5 interceptions this season on 516 passes for a microscopic 1% interception rate will likely play a big role in this game. How did the Packers win 13 games despite getting outgained in yardage this season? One of the reasons is certainly their +12 net turnover margin — but they are unlikely (don’t jinx it, Sawyer) to enjoys a turnover advantage against this Seahawks’ team that emphasizes minimizing negative risk under head coach Pete Carroll. The Seahawks are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after gaining at least 300 passing yards in their last game. Seattle is a dangerous underdog given the high level coaching of Carroll and the playmaking of Wilson with that combination leading to an incredible 11-2 mark in one-scoring games (something I do not think is merely a fluke since it is precisely Carroll’s formula for success this season with a somewhat limited roster). The Seahawks is 34-16-3 ATS in their last 53 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, Wilson has led his teams at Seattle to a 26-13-2 ATS mark an underdog in his career which includes covering the point spread in ten of these last twelve situations as the dog. Wilson has also seen his team cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games with seven outright upset victories as an underdog getting at least 4 points. The Seahawks are road warriors this season with an 8-1 record away from home while outscoring their home hosts by +4.3 PPG due to their defense allowing just 19.8 PPG. Seattle is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games on the road — and they are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a win on the road. The Packers return home to Lambeau Field after playing their last two games on the road — but not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after playing a game on the road, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing two straight games on the road. And while Green Bay has covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Packers were a bit more fortunate to pullout all eight of their games decided by one scoring possession. I do give credit to Aaron Rodgers for that success — the football analytics community is a few laps behind the basketball community in beginning to appreciate that winning close games is not purely an issue of luck. But avoiding bad luck in winning one-possession games is at least somewhat a result of good fortunes. The Pythagorean-calculated win total for Green Bay drops to 9.8 wins. Additionally, the Packers have only defeated one team with a quarterback that led his team to the playoffs — Kirk Cousins. Green Bay defeated Kansas City when Matt Moore was playing for an injured Deshaun Watson while losing by a 34-27 score to Philadelphia and getting blown out by a 37-8 score to San Francisco.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers game failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Seattle has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games as an underdog. 10* NFL Seattle-Green Bay Fox-TV Special with the Seattle Seahawks (307) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (305). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (12-4) ended the regular season winning six straight games with their 31-21 victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 10-point favorite. Houston (11-6) has won three of their last four contests with their 22-19 win over Buffalo in overtime last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. The Chiefs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They should build off the momentum of their six-game winning streak as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit win against a divisional rival. And in their last 7 games after a home win against an AFC West foe, Kansas City has covered the point spread 6 times. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has not had as spectacular a fantasy season this year — but he still leads a potent offense that is 5th in the NFL by scoring 28.2 PPG while leading a passing attack that is also 5th in the league by averaging 281.5 passing YPG (despite their dynamic wide receiver, Tyreek Hill, missing some games). But the impressive aspect of this Chiefs’ team is the bump in the play of defensive coordinator’s Steve Spagnuolo unit in the second year in his system which has become commonplace after similar results occurred at his previous spots (including with a Super Bowl-winning NY Giants team). Kansas City has held its last six opponents to just 11.5 PPG — and their last three opponents have scored only 9.0 PPG while averaging just 283.7 total YPG. The Chiefs ended the season 8th in the NFL in opponent’s Expected Points Added per play and 7th in opponent’s EPA on pass plays. Kansas City now retains big situational advantages getting an extra week to rest and prepare while staying at home for three weeks. Head coach Andy Ryan has seen his teams cover the point spread in 18 of their 27 games coming off a bye week in his career. The Chiefs are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games at home. And in their last 10 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points, Kansas City has covered the point spread in 7 of these games. Houston may be due for a letdown as they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Frankly, this is a team that has been carried by Deshaun Watson who is frequently asked to overcome a shaky defense and a head coach in Bill O’Brien who does not always put his team in the best position to succeed given his tactical decisions. The Texans are being outscored this season by -0.5 PPG. They are also being outgained by -26.3 YPG — and this gets worse on the road where they have been outgained by -48.0 net YPG when playing on the road. Houston’s defense is below average as they allow 388.3 total YPG which is 28th in the league — and they have surrendered 442.3 total YPG over their last three contests. The Texans have spent much of the season trailing in their games which is very strange for a team that won eleven games in the regular season. And this Houston team has been outscored by a 34-0 score in the first half of their last two playoff games under O’Brien’s command after going into halftime last week at home by a 13-0 score to the Bills. Mahomes will punish this Texans team if they continue to be that anemic in the first half of this one. Now after playing their last two games at home, Houston goes on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the October 13th encounter between these two teams in Arrowhead Stadium as well where the Texans pulled off a 31-24 upset victory as a 3.5-point underdog. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss decided by a touchdown or less — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with same-season revenge from an upset loss. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (304) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (303). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (14-2) has won twelve games in a row with their 28-10 upset win at Pittsburgh to end the regular season as a 2-point underdog back on December 29th. Tennessee (10-7) has won their last two games after their 20-13 upset victory at New England as a 4.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: It was a very emotional victory for head Mike Vrabel who led his Titans team into Foxboro to defeat his former team where he starred as a player. They survived that game despite managing only 272 yards of offense while being outgained by -35 net yards — and remember that the score looks more decisive only because of their pick-six interception return for a touchdown that ended the game. If the Patriots convert a touchdown late in the first half when they were on the 1-yard line rather than settle for a field goal, then the complexion of that game probably changes. Don’t be surprised if this team experiences an emotional letdown after two monster games where they had to defeat Houston on the road to even make the playoffs before knocking off the reigning champions on the road last week. Tennessee benefited from winning the turnover battle in these last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after enjoying a +1 or better net turnover margin in two straight games. Derrick Henry has led the way for this team as they have rushed for 245 and 201 yards in these last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in two straight contests. The Titans have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Consistency has been a problem for this team as they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning at least two in a row. Tennessee has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. This is a very difficult assignment now facing a playoff team on the road for the third consecutive week. The Ravens are outscoring their opponents by +15.2 PPG — and the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +10 PPG. And while Baltimore leads the NFL by scoring 33.2 PPG, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 28 PPG. The Ravens were an underdog last week with the Steelers because they rested key players including quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Ravens still scored four touchdowns with Robert Griffin III under center against a good Pittsburgh defense that needed a win along with a Titans loss to reach the playoffs. So here comes a rested Jackson along with Mark Ingram whose injured calf is improving late this week who leads an offense that leads the NFL by scoring 33.2 PPG while ranking 2nd in the league by averaging 407.6 total YPG. What makes this Ravens’ offense so difficult to stop is their ability to play in “13” personnel with one running back and three tight ends who can all catch the ball. While the formation helps a heavy rushing attack, all three of those tight ends can catch the ball while offering Jackson a huge target down the field. Jackson faces a Titans’ defense that ranks 24th in the NFL by allowing 255.0 passing YPG. Baltimore also boasts the NFL’s top rushing attack that averages 206.0 rushing YPG. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory by at least two touchdowns. But while the Baltimore offense gets most of the credit, don’t sleep on this Ravens defense that is 3rd in the NFL by allowing 17.6 PPG and 4th in the league by giving up only 300.6 total YPG. And since the team acquired Marcus Peters with Jimmy Smith getting healthy again to give the defense two elite cover cornerbacks, the Ravens have boasted the top statistical defense in the NFL in points allowed and yardage allowed. Those two cover corners provide the Ravens the luxury to place eight defenders in the box to slow down Henry rushing out of the backfield.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams from the AFC. The Ravens have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 playoff games under head coach John Harbaugh. Tennessee is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Baltimore. 10* NFL Tennessee-Baltimore CBS-TV Special with the Baltimore Ravens (304) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (302) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (301). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (13-3) closed out the regular season winning their last two games after their 26-21 victory at Seattle for Sunday Night Football back on December 29th as a 3.5-point favorite. Minnesota (11-6) snapped a two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 26-20 upset win in overtime at New Orleans as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: That was a huge emotional victory for tat Vikings team on the road and particularly for Kirk Cousins who may have permanently removed the proverbial money that has been on his back regarding his failure to step up in big games. Cousins was solid but not spectacular against the Saints by completing 19 of 31 passes for 242 yards with a touchdown pass. But this situation is eerily similar to Minnesota’s miracle victory over New Orleans in the playoffs two years ago under head coach Mike Zimmer which was then followed up by them being completely flat on the road to another number one seed in the NFC at Philadelphia with the Eagles crushing them by a 38-7 score. As it is, the Vikings have only covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. Frankly, I don’t think Minnesota wins that game if Drew Brees does commit that rare fumble that he suffered in what looked like a go-ahead drive midway through the 4th quarter. And then winning the coin flip in overtime helped tremendously as the Vikings then scored a touchdown to negate Brees get another chance with the football. Despite the victory, Minnesota is still only scoring 18.3 PPG over their last three contests while averaging just 267.0 total YPG over that span which is far below their 25.4 PPG and 353.5 total YPG season average. They did get running back Dalvin Cook back last week after he took the last couple of games off to close out the regular season — but he is still averaging just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry in his last seven games. The Vikings wide receivers are also less than 100% this week with Stefan Diggs dealing with an illness and Adam Thielen suffering an ankle injury that may slow him down. These are not great developments for a team that is used to playing on artificial turf as they did again last week. But when playing on grass as will be the case in Levi Stadium, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games. San Francisco secured their bye week and home field throughout the NFC playoffs with their clutch victory on the road against the Seahawks. The 49ers held Seattle scoreless in the first half of that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. QB Jimmy Garoppolo was very sharp in that game as he completed 18 of 22 passes for 285 yards while leading an offense that generated 398 total yards. The Niners are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. San Francisco has won five of their last seven games — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The 49ers are 2nd in the league by scoring 29.9 PPG — and that number rises to 32.4 PPG at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +12.8 PPG and outgained their guests by +108.3 net YPG. San Francisco is also 2nd in the NFL by limiting their opponents to only 281.8 total YPG — and they will be getting the heart and soul of their defense back for this game in Kwon Alexander who has missed half the season with his chest injury.

FINAL TAKE: Teams unfamiliar with this Niners team has struggled as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against non-divisional opponents. San Francisco has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Minnesota’s victory last week was just their first win on the road against a team with a winning record all season. It was also just their first playoff win on the road since 2004. Yet the Vikings have still failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (302) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (279) plus the points versus the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (280). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (8-5) has won six of their last seven games after winning the Mid-American Conference Championship Game on December 7th with their 26-21 upset victory over Central Michigan as a 5.5-point underdog. Lafayette (10-3) saw their six-game winning streak snapped in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game on December 7th with their 45-38 loss at Appalachian State as a 5-point underdog. This game is being played at Land Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after pulling off an upset win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a victory over a Mid-American Conference rival. The RedHawks have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread win. And in their last 26 games after winning four or five of their last six games, Miami has covered the point spread in 20 of these contests. This team is better than their numbers suggest as they endured a brutal non-conference schedule that skewed their statistics with games at Ohio State, Iowa, and Cincinnati. The RedHawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. Lafayette has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after a narrow loss by 7 points or less against a Sun Belt Conference opponent. The Ragin’ Cajuns are led by junior quarterback Levi Lewis who led an offense that completed 64.7% of their passes — but the RedHawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who complete at least 62% of his passes. Louisiana has failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60% to 75% range. And while the Ragin’ Cajuns have scored at least 31 points in seven straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 31 points in three straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has covered the point spread in their last 4 games when playing on a neutral field. Look for the RedHawks to keep this game closer than expected as a double-digit underdog. 10* CFB Lending Tree Bowl ESPN Special with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (279) plus the points versus the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (148) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (147). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (9-7) has won four straight games with their 34-17 win at New York against the Giants as a 4-point favorite. Seattle (11-5) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Both of these teams are hit hard by injuries. The good news for Philadelphia is that it looks like tight end Zach Ertz, running back Miles Sanders, and cornerback Jalen Mills will take the field today. Yet even relying on former practice squad, head coach Doug Pederson and his offensive coaching staff have been making things work. Over their last three games, the Eagles have scored 29.3 PPG along with averaging 415.3 total YPG. The foundation has been quarterback Carson Wentz who has asserted himself as the leader of this team. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a double-digit victory. The coaching staff has been forced to be innovative with all their injuries but they are finding ways to move the football. For example, since Week Fourteen, Wentz has completed 28 of his 31 screen passes for 237 yards which is the most in the NFL over that span. Pederson is not stranger to coaching his team up in the playoffs as an underdog — over the last three seasons, he has lead his team to four upset wins in five playoff games when getting the points. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 playoff games as the underdog. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games in January. Furthermore, Philadelphia has held their eight visitors to just 16.7 PPG along with only 273.6 total YPG which has helped them cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog. Seattle has been the beneficiary of turnover luck and mossed field goal luck which has helped them overcome getting outgained in yardage this season. And while the Seahawks are 7-1 on the road this year, they are being outgained by -6.8 net YPG overall in those games. Seattle has lost their original top three running backs on their depth chart to injury. Left tackle Duane Brown is also out with his biceps injury which takes away the most effective offensive lineman from a unit that ranks just 24th in Adjusted Sack Rate. The Seahawks are being outgained by -74.7 net YPG over their last three games given a slowed-down offense that is scoring only 21.3 PPG while averaging 333.3 total YPG during that span. Russell Wilson’s potential MVP campaign has waned in the second half of the season. After posting 100+ QB Ratings in eight of his first nine games, Wilson has registered just one game earning a QBR of 100 or better over his last seven starts. Seattle did not score in the first half last week against the 49ers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread after failing to score at least a field goal in the first half of their last game. They also are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against NFC opponents. And in their last 7 games in the playoffs, the Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Seattle’s 17-9 victory in Philly back on November 24th. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 52 games when looking to avenge a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 52 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score at least 14 points. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Philadelphia Eagles (148) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (147). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (146) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (145). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (10-6) has lost two straight games with their 21-19 loss to Chicago at home last week as a 5-point underdog. New Orleans (13-3) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 42-10 win at Carolina last Sunday as a 13.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Vikings have not won on the road in the playoffs since 2004 — and they have lost eleven of their last thirteen road games in the playoffs going back to 1988. And with zero wins on the road against a team that finished with a winning record this season, I don’t think this team has the confidence to hang with the Saints when playing in the Big Easy in what will be a very energetic environment. A blind-spot with analytics in sports across the board is the tendency to treat every statistical moment as the same. But as we saw yesterday when the Buffalo Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen went on tilt late in that game where the urgency of the moment compelled him to make ill-advised backward pitches. The pressure of the playoffs impacts even professional athletes (ask the Houston Rockets when they were missing 28 3-pointers in a row in a Game Seven against Golden State). Maybe if Kirk Cousins had not gone 12 of 21 for just 126 yards in a critical game at home against Green Bay two weeks ago, I would feel better about his progression as a quarterback. Cousins clearly feels the pressure of leading this team that has Super Bowl talent at most other positions. I just cannot get over numbers like this: Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against teams with a winning record; they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. They are scoring only 22.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 261.0 total YPG over that span. They are also just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a point spread win. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Ever since their 26-9 loss at home to Atlanta on November 10th, the Saints have been dynamite on offense as they have scored at least 26 points in all seven games while scoring at least 34 points in each of their last four contests. Quarterback Drew Brees has a sensational 15:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those last four games — and he is completing 75.9% of his passes with 19 touchdown passes and a Passer Rating of 125.9 since Week 11. Furthermore, since Brees’ return in Week Eight after missing five games earlier to injury, New Orleans has ranked 3rd in the NFL in Expected Points Adder per play. The emergence of tight end of Jared Cook as a viable deep threat for this offense has made a big difference. Cook has six catches of at least 20 yards since Week Eleven. New Orleans is scoring 28.4 PPG at home while averaging 420.4 total YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 38 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when facing the Saints. Look for the Saints to pull away to cover this point spread. 10* NFL Minnesota-New Orleans Fox-TV Special with the New Orleans Saints (146) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (144) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (143). THE SITUATION: New England (12-4) looks to rebound from their 27-24 upset loss to Miami at home last week as a 17.5-point favorite. Tennessee (9-7) clinched the final spot in the AFC playoffs last Sunday with their 35-14 win at Houston as a 10-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England blew the opportunity to claim the second seed in the AFC playoffs last week which would not only have given them this week off but would have also ensured they played at home next week. The Patriots have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset loss to an AFC East rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. The Dolphins Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for 326 yards to lead his team to the upset victory — but New England has then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards. This remains an outstanding Patriots defense that leads the NFL by allowing only 14.1 PPG and just 275.9 total YPG. Frankly, I think the rumors of the reigning Super Bowl champions have been overly exaggerated. Losing home field advantage certainly does not help their chances. And the Patriots have been challenged on offense without Rob Gronkowski and a viable deep threat (Antonio Brown fit that role perfectly) which was then made worse with injuries to their offensive line and at fullback which hurt their running game. Even with all these issues, New England is scoring 27.3 PPG over their last three games. The Patriots gained 352 yards against the Dolphins defense last week — and they are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. New England was 6-2 at home this season where they outscored their guests by +10.2 PPG while outgaining these opponents by +82.1 net YPG. The Patriots are 42-20-3 ATS in their last 65 games at home — and they are 17-8-3 in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. New England has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in the playoffs — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games in the playoffs. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Titans have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Ryan Tannehill led the Tennessee offense to 467 yards of offense last week — but they are then 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Titans are also 16-37-1 ATS in their last 54 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Tannehill has been a revelation for this Tennessee team — but Bill Belichick and the Patriots coaching staff are very familiar with him after facing him twice a year during his time in Miami. New England won all six of their games against Tannehill as a starter when playing the Dolphins with just five touchdown passes and ten interceptions while posting a low 70 Passer Rating in those six games.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Patriots. And while New England is typically laying more than a touchdown when playing at home, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when laying 3.5 to 7 points. 25* AFC Playoff Wildcard Game of the Year with the New England Patriots (144) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (143). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (141) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (142). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (10-6) enters the playoffs having lost their last two games along with three of the last four games with their 13-6 loss at home to the New York Jets last Sunday as a 1.5-point underdog. Houston (10-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 35-14 loss at home to Tennessee as a 10-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss to an AFC South rival. While Houston had nothing to play for in that game, the fact that they surrendered 245 rushing yards to the Titans is a significant cause for concern. The Texans are allowing 121.1 rushing YPG which is 25th in the league — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Houston stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Texans have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games as a favorite. Houston is being outscored and outgained by their visitors when playing at home — and they are also being outscored and outgained overall this season given their suspect defense that is just 28th in the league by allowing 388.3 total YPG. The Texans will be without wide receiver Will Fuller for this contests who has been downgraded to doubtful with his groin injury. Fuller plays a critical role in this offense with his speed giving Houston the ability to stretch the field. In their 325 passing plays with Fuller on the field, the Texans averaged 7.0 yards per passing plays with 31 plays that gained at least 20 yards — but in their 303 passing plays without Fuller, they averaged just 5.8 yards per play with just 17 plays gaining at least 20 yards. Buffalo rested quarterback Josh Allen and some of their key starters in their game with the Jets with them locked-in as the 5th seed in the AFC playoffs. The Bills have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread setback. Buffalo has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Buffalo plays outstanding defense — they rank 2nd in the NFL by allowing only 16.2 PPG and they rank 3rd in the league by giving up just 298.2 total YPG. The weakness of this team is with Allen in the passing game — but he has been more effective on the road this season. He leads an offense that is scoring 21.5 PPG while averaging 340.5 total YPG which are both better than their overall season marks. The Bills were 6-2 on the road this season while outscoring their opponents by +5.9 PPG. Buffalo is 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games on the road — and they are also 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 games on the road as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: While Deshaun Watson is the better quarterback in this game, the best unit in this contest belongs to the Bills’ defense. Buffalo is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Buffalo-Houston ABC-TV Special with the Buffalo Bills (141) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (278) plus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (277) in the Armed Forces Bowl. THE SITUATION: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (7-5) enters this bowl game off two straight losses after their 34-17 loss at FAU on November 30th as an 8-point underdog. Tulane (6-6) has lost three straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 37-20 loss at SMU as a 3-point underdog on November 30th. This game is being played at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Southern Mississippi has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Golden Eagles lost that game with the Owls due to quarterback Jack Abraham throwing for turnovers which accounted for their -4 net turnover margin in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after suffering a -4 or worse net turnover margin. Look for Abraham to respond with a strong effort after playing his worst game of the season. Abraham completed 67.5% of his passes for 3329 passing yards while averaging 8.7 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. Southern Miss did hold Florida Atlantic to just 156 passing yards in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last game. The Golden Eagles were solid when playing away from home this season where they were only outgained by -2.4 net YPG. Overall, Southern Miss outgained their twelve opponents by +59.7 net YPG. Tulane has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a double-digit loss to an American Athletic Conference rival. And while they have played three straight Unders, the Green Wave have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing at least three straight Unders. Tulane was a much better home team this season where they won five of their six games. But the Green Wave were 1-5 on the road where they were outscored by -11.2 PPG. Tulane also scored just 24.0 PPG over their final three games of the regular season which was -9.3 PPG below their season average. Head coach Willie Fritz has his team deploy a spread triple option that he brought over from his tenure at Georgia Southern — but the Golden Eagles will benefit from the extra time to prepare for this specific offense in this bowl game. As it is, it has been tough to run on this Southern Miss team as they held their opponents to averaging just 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry which translated into 111.8 rushing YPG which was 14th lowest in the nation. And while the Golden Eagles average 8.8 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt overall this season, the Green Wave have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games against opponents that average at least 8.5 YPA. Furthermore, Tulane is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games played on grass.

FINAL TAKE: The Green Wave have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games against opponents with a winning percentage in the 51% to 60% percent range. 10* CFB Armed Forces Bowl ESPN Special with the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (278) plus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (276) plus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (275) in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. THE SITUATION: Nevada (7-5) looks to bounce-back from their 33-30 upset loss to UNLV on November 30th as a 6.5-point favorite. Ohio (6-6) has won two games in a row with their 52-3 win over Akron as a 27.5-point favorite on November 26th. This game is played on Boise State’s blue home field.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK PLUS THE POINTS: The Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a win by at least 20 points. Ohio has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. And while the Bobcats generated 603 yards of offense against the Zips, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Ohio has been an unreliable favorite as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when laying the points. Nevada is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. The Wolf Pack are getting better play from their freshman quarterback Carson Strong who completed 100 of 151 passes over the last month of the season for 951 yards. The Nevada defense also improved as the season went on as they allowed only 24.7 PPG along with 350.7 total YPG which was -7.4 PPG and -47.0 net YPG below their season average. The Wolf Pack are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral field — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.

FINAL TAKE: The Nevada defense will be undermanned with suspensions removing three of their top ten tacklers. But as an underdog in the touchdown range, the Wolf Pack should still keep this game close. 10* CFB Famous Idaho Potato Bowl with the Nevada Wolf Pack (276) plus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indiana Hoosiers (288) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (287) in the Gator Bowl. THE SITUATION: Indiana (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak to end the season with their 44-41 win in overtime at Purdue on November 30th as a 7-point favorite. Tennessee (8-4) has won five in a row after their 28-10 win over Vanderbilt as a 24-point favorite on November 30th as a 24-point favorite. This game is being played at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOOSIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Indiana has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Hoosiers have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win on the road against a conference rival. And while Indiana has won five of their last seven games, Indiana has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Some bettors have been scared off this Hoosiers team because they have not defeated a team with more than five victories this season — but all five of their losses were against teams that were ranked at the time. Indiana has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after winning three straight games against SEC rivals. The Volunteers outgained the Commodores by +138 net yards in their last game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 net yards. And while Tennessee had covered the point spread in six straight games before their contest with Vanderbilt, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, the Volunteers have played four straight Unders — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after playing at least three straight Unders. Furthermore, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams outside the SEC. And in their last 13 games as the favorite, the Volunteers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee will be without their top wide receiver and emotional leader of the team in Javan Jennings who will be suspended for the first half of this game. Expect a close one where the Hoosiers have the opportunity to pull the upset. 10* CFB Gator Bowl ESPN Special with the Indiana Hoosiers (288) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (269) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (270) in the Sugar Bowl. THE SITUATION: Baylor (11-2) enters this bowl game coming off a 30-23 loss to Oklahoma as a 9-point underdog in the Big 12 Championship Game back on December 7th. Georgia (11-2) comes off a 37-10 loss to LSU on December 7th as a 7.5-point underdog in the SEC Championship Game. This game is being played in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The reports I am getting from the Big Easy is that this Georgia team has shown little from their body language and attitude since arriving for this bowl game that they have recovered from that devastating loss to the Tigers. The Bulldogs are a peculiar football program in that they perceive themselves as a true blue blood despite not having the historical resume to back up that claim. This is a team that expected to be in the College Football Playoff after making the National Championship Game two years ago. After losing in the SEC Championship Game last season, they were completing unmotivated to play Texas in last year’s Sugar Bowl and were upset by a mediocre Longhorns team by a 28-21 score. My initial reaction to their opportunity to return to New Orleans for another Sugar Bowl this season was that this was their chance for redemption. But the attrition rate of players unable or unwilling to play in this game speaks loudly about the importance (or lack thereof) to play this Baylor team that was 1-11 last year. Georgia is missing three starters on their offensive line with two skipping the game for the NFL and one player suspended due to academics. The Bulldogs are also thin at wide receiver with their star, Lawrence Cager, likely out with the ankle injury that kept him out for the previous two games, along with Dominick Black with a torn ACL that he suffered versus LSU. Defensive tackle Tyler Clark along with running back Brian Herrien did not make the trip. And running back D’Andre Swift is questionable with the bruised shoulder he suffered against Georgia Tech that limited him to five snaps against LSU. For a team that was already lacking elite talent at the skill positions, these losses are devastating. The Bulldogs have averaged just 348.7 total YPG over their last three games which is -61.5 net YPG below their season average. Junior quarterback Jake Fromm may be hiding an injury himself — or he simply is suffering from a lack of confidence that has worsened with the lack of help from his teammates. After being the highest-graded quarterback by Pro Football Focus after the first six weeks of the season, Fromm has completed only 47% of his passes over his last five games. The defense has played at an elite level for most of the season — but they were exposed by LSU who generated 481 yards against them QB Joe Burrow passing for 349 yards. Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 325 passing yards in their last game. The Bulldogs have not had more than one takeaway in eight games as well — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not getting more than one turnover in five straight contests. This is not a good matchup for Georgia either. The Bears average 6.4 Yards-Per-Play along with averaging 6.4 Yards-Per-Carry — and they have both failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams that average at least 4.75 YPC but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games against opponents who average at least 5.9 YPP. After enduring a 1-11 season last year, this Baylor team is excited with this opportunity to play in prime-time in a New Year’s Six Bowl game. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. And while the Bears managed only 265 total yards against the Sooners, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. Oklahoma outgained Baylor by -168 net yards — but Baylor has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after being outgained by at least -125 yards. The Bears have an outstanding pass rush which will challenge this Bulldogs’ offensive line that will be elevating three backups to starting positions. Baylor has 43 sacks this season and PFF ranks their pass rush as the 14th best in the nation. The Bears also generated 23 sacks rushing just three players which leaves eight defenders against the pass in those situations. Moving forward, Baylor has covered the point spread in 35 of their last 52 games against teams with a winning record. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 bowl games.

FINAL TAKE: Baylor has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games as an underdog — and this includes them covering the point spread in 8 straight games with five outright upset victories in that span. And head coach Matt Rhule has seen his teams cover the point spread in 34 of the last 48 games he has coached as the dog while leading his team to sixteen upset wins. 10* CFB Sugar Bowl ESPN Special with the Baylor Bears (269) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (267) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (268) in the Rose Bowl. THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (10-3) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 7th with their 34-21 loss to Ohio State. Oregon (11-2) has won their last two games with their 37-15 upset win over Utah as a 6.5-point underdog in the Pac-12 Championship Game on December 6th. The Rose Bowl is played in Pasadena, California.

FINAL TAKE: The Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams outside the Pac-12 — and the Badgers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Big Ten. 10* CFB Rose Bowl ESPN Special with the Wisconsin Badgers (267) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Minnesota Golden Gophers (265) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (266) in the Outback Bowl. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (10-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 38-17 loss to Wisconsin as a 3-point underdog on November 30th. Auburn (9-3) has won two straight games after their 48-45 upset win over Alabama as a 3.5-point underdog on November 30th. This game is being played on Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN GOPHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Look for the Tigers to suffer from the hangover of their huge win over their arch rivals in the Iron Bowl. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a win at home over an SEC rival. And while the Tigers have covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Auburn has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when played on a neutral field with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. Minnesota has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. The Golden Gophers have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. Moving forward, Minnesota is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams outside the Big Ten.

FINAL TAKE: This Golden Gophers team has been a feisty underdog under head coach P.J.Fleck. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as a dog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field as an underdog. 10* CFB Outback Bowl ESPN Special with Minnesota Golden Gophers (265) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (266) in the Outback Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (262) minus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (261) in the Alamo Bowl. THE SITUATION: Utah (11-2) looks to pick themselves off the after laying the proverbial egg in the Pac-12 Championship Game in their 37-15 upset loss to Oregon on December 6th. Texas (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak to close out their regular season with their 49-24 win over Texas Tech as a 9.5-point favorite on November 29th. This game is being played on a neutral field in San Antonio.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: Utah should respond with a strong effort with this high-profile game on New Year’s Eve to remove the stink from their embarrassing loss to the Ducks. The Utes have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Utah has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after suffering an upset loss. The Utes were serious contenders to make the College Football Playoff because they a legitimate outstanding team this season. They lead the nation by allowing only 256.2 total YPG — and they are 4th in the nation by only giving up 13.2 PPG. The offense is as prolific as any unit in the Kyle Whittingham era as they are 25th in the FBS by scoring 34.0 PPG. Senior quarterback Ty Huntley if 5th in the FBS in Passing Efficiency while proving his offense with a threat with his legs. Senior running back Zack Moss averages 6.2 Yards-Per-Carry. The Utes have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Utah has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games as a favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points. Texas may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Expectations were sky-high for this team after last year’s bowl game where the Longhorns upset Georgia. In hindsight, more attention should have been paid that the Bulldogs were completely disinterested in that game after failing to make the College Football Playoff before seeing a handful of their best players skip the game to prepare for the NFL draft. Head coach Tom Herman has been very dangerous when motivating his team when they are playing the role of the underdog — his teams are 11-5 ATS with ten upset victories when getting the points. But he seems to be using this game entirely to prepare for an important 2020 season as he sacked both his offensive coordinator Tim Beck and his defensive coordinator Todd Orlando. This lack of continuity will be very difficult for his team to overcome even with a few extra weeks to prepare. As it is, the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games played on a neutral field wit the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. Texas has been fortunate with turnovers to close out their regular season as well as they have only committed two turnovers (in separate games) over their last four contests. But the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after playing four straight games where they did not commit more than one turnover.

FINAL TAKE: I would worry about some teams not taking this bowl game seriously after suffering the emotional letdown of not making the College Football Playoff — but not a Whittingham-coached team. Whittingham is 11-2 straight-up in bowl games — and the Utes have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 bowl games. The route may be on … lay the points. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Utah Utes (262) minus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (261). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (259) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (260) in the Arizona Bowl. THE SITUATION: Georgia State (7-5) stumbles into this bowl game having lost three of their last four games after their 38-10 loss at Georgia Southern as a 6.5-point underdog back on November 30th. Wyoming (7-5) has also lost three of their last four games with their 20-6 loss at the Air Force as a 13.5-point underdog on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field in Tuscon.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Panthers offense has been slowed down since quarterback Dan Ellington suffered a partially torn ACL in the ninth game of the season against Louisiana-Monroe. Ellington has played through the injury but it limited his mobility. The month off since their loss to the Eagles should help the healing in the process — but Ellington is going to have to defeat the Cowboys with his passing. Ellington did have two 300-yard passing games this season en route to his 2291 passing yards — and he threw 21 touchdown passes. Wyoming has a great defense but they were vulnerable against the pass as they surrendered 265.1 passing YPG which was 112th in the nation. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against teams that allowed at least 250 passing YPG. The Panthers also need to play better on defense after allowing Georgia Southern to rush for 279 yards — but they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Wyoming managed only 225 total yards in their loss to the Falcons in their last game. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Furthermore, Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after a game where no more than 29 combined points were scored. Wyoming has their own issues at QB after redshirt freshman Sean Chambers suffered a season-ending knee injury. Chambers was effective with his legs as he averaged 6.7 YPC which accounted for 567 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Redshirt sophomore Tyler Vander Waal was ineffective in his absence under center with things being so bad that he decided to enter the transfer portal after the Air Force game. That leaves little-used freshman Levi Williams as the Cowboys’ quarterback for this game. Wyoming has scored only 14.7 PPG while averaging just 280.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Cowboys were a much better team at home where they were 6-1 in the high altitude air in Laramie. But this team was just 1-5 on the road where they only scored 18.3 PPG while averaging only 294.5 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Wyoming failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. A Georgia State team focused on passing the football may be a blessing in disguise for them because they won four of their five games when Ellington passed for at least 200 yards. 10* CFB Arizona Bowl CBS Sports Network Special with the Georgia State Panthers (259) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Navy Midshipmen (258) minus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (257) in the Liberty Bowl. THE SITUATION: Navy (10-2) has won their last three games after their 31-7 triumph over Army as an 11.5-point favorite on December 14th. Kansas State (8-4) has won their last two games after their 27-17 upset victory over Iowa State as a 4-point underdog on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field in Memphis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MIDSHIPMEN MINUS THE POINTS: Navy is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread win. The Midshipmen should not be taken lightly in bowl games as they have covered the point spread in 5 straight bowl game appearances. One of the reasons for this success is that the spread triple option travels — Navy scored 38.5 PPG in their six road games while averaging 446.5 total YPG in those contests. The Midshipmen also play very solid defense — they ranked 22nd in the nation by holding their opponents to just 326.2 total YPG. Navy held their opponents to -89 YPG below their opponent’s season average. They are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December — and they are 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against teams outside the American Athletic Conference. They have outscored their last three opponents by +15.4 net PPG. And they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games as the favorite. Kansas State may be due for a letdown as they have registered two straight upset victories with a 30-27 win at Texas Tech as a 2-point dog preceding their upset victory over the Cyclones to close out the regular season. But that was 31 days ago which risks them being rusty against an opponent that played a very big game for them two weeks ago. The Wildcats can struggle to move the football as they are just 93rd in the nation by averaging 374.7 total YPG. Kansas State was also outgained in their five road games by -93.6 net YPG. The Wildcats averaged just 332.0 total YPG away from home which was -42.7 net YPG below their season average — and they surrendered 425.6 YPG on the road which was -61.6 YPG more than they allowed overall this season. Kansas State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning two of their last three games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral field as an underdog, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: The service academies have won ten of their last twelve bowl games. While it would be foolish to just zombie bet on Army, Navy, or the Air Force in bowl games, the success of these programs in bowl games comes from their consistency of play from week-to-week along with using spread triple-option rushing attacks that are not weather dependent to succeed. And while their opponents benefit from the extra weeks to prepare, these are sophisticated offensive attacks that leave play-callers plenty of options to counter against the defensive adjustments while expanding the plays in the playbook. 10* CFB Liberty Bowl ESPN Special with the Navy Midshipmen (258) minus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (257). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (255) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (256). THE SITUATION: Florida State (6-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on November 30th with their 40-17 loss at Florida as a 17-point underdog. Arizona State (7-5) has won their last two games with their 24-14 win over Arizona on November 30th as a 12-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES PLUS THE POINTS: Florida State managed only 250 yards against the Gators offense — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. And while the Seminoles surrendered 390 passing yards to Florida, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. This team is playing under interim head coach Odell Haggins who took over the team after Willie Taggart was sacked in November. The players play hard under Haggins as he is 4-1 as an interim head coach with Florida State which includes a 42-13 victory over Southern Mississippi in the Independence Bowl two years ago. Over their last three games, the Seminoles have scored 34.3 PPG while averaging 433.0 total YPG which is +5.6 PPG and +29.8 net YPG above their season average. Florida State is 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 bowl games — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games as an underdog. Arizona State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. The Sun Devils secured five wins against Power-Five teams this season but with a low margin of victory in those contests of just +5.4 PPG. This team was outgained this season overall in yardage behind an offense that was just 89th in the nation by averaging a mere 379.6 total YPG. Arizona State scored only 20.6 PPG while averaging just 301.6 total YPG in their five games on the road. Pass defense is also an issue for this team as they ranked 115th in the nation by allowing 270.1 passing YPG. These characteristics make the Sun Devils unreliable favorites as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games when laying the points. Arizona State has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the Pac-12 — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field as the favorite. The Sun Devils have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 bowl games.

FINAL TAKE: Both teams are missing significant players in this game who decided to skip for preparation for the NFL draft. Florida State will be without a scholarship player at running back given injuries along with Cam Akers' decision to bypass the game. The Seminoles have been jumpstarted on offense as of late by quarterback Jordan Davis who they have used in their running game. But Arizona State will be without their 1000-yard rusher in Eno Benjamin and 1000-yard wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk who are skipping this game for the NFL draft. The Sun Devils’ losses are probably the bigger blow for an offense that was not much without them. 10* CFB Sun Bowl CBS-TV Special with the Florida State Seminoles (255) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (286) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (285) in the Belk Bowl. THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (8-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on November 29th with their 39-30 upset loss at Virginia as a 1.5-point favorite. Kentucky (7-5) has won three in a row after their 45-13 win over Louisville as a 3.5-point favorite on November 30th. This game is being played in Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOKIES MINUS THE POINTS: Virginia Tech will have something to prove on defense in what will be the last game for their legendary defensive coordinator Bud Carson before he enters retirement. The Hokies surrendered 492 yards to the Cavaliers with 311 of those yards coming in the air. Virginia Tech has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they are 6-0-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Despite that performance against Virginia, the Hokies defense steadily improves as they held their last four opponents to just 276 YPG while keeping these foes -115 YPG below their season average. This is a team that bottomed out early after a 45-10 loss at Duke in late September. The team moved to sophomore Hendon Hooker under center after that and he led the team to six wins in seven starts while leading the offense to average 36.8 PPG. Hooker completed 62.1% of his passes while throwing 11 touchdown passes to just two interceptions and he added another five touchdowns with his legs. Virginia Tech has covered the point spread in five of their last six games — and they have then covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Additionally, the Hokies have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. Kentucky has won five of their last seven games while covering the point spread in six of their last seven contests. But the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after winning five or six of their last seven games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. This Kentucky coaching staff had to scramble after the season-ending injury to junior quarterback Terry Wilson — but they found an answer in converting speedster wide receiver Lynn Bowden to the QB position. This tactic worked as having their best offensive player touching the ball on every snap helped them in those final seven games with his 1235 rushing yards propelling the offense to average a whopping 352 rushing YPG. But Bowden and company will now be facing a stour Hokies run defense that ranked 27th in the nation by allowing 123.3 rushing YPG — and giving Carson three weeks to prepare for this system in his swan song should mean this Virginia Tech defense will be very prepared. Kentucky has scored 95 points in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 42 points in two straight games. The Wildcats are limited in their passing attack behind Bowden as they averaged just 117.1 passing YPG which is 126th in the nation. This team also scored just 14.5 PPG along with 325.7 total YPG in their four true road games.

FINAL TAKE: Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field. Virginia Tech has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field. 10* CFB Belk Bowl ESPN Special with the Virginia Tech Hokies (286) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (285) in the Belk Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (251) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (252) in the Orange Bowl. THE SITUATION: Virginia (9-4) looks to bounce-back from their 62-17 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game where they were 29-point underdogs back on December 7th. Florida (10-2) has won three straight games with their 40-17 win over Florida State as a 17-point favorite on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Virginia has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while they surrender 211 rushing yards to the Tigers in the ACC Championship Game, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Virginia has a potent offense in the fourth season under head coach Bronco Mendenhall. Virginia was 42nd in the nation by averaging 32.4 PPG. They are led by senior quarterback Bryce Perkins who led the ACC by averaging 304.6 total YPG from his passing and running. He completed 27 of 43 passes for 266 yards against Clemson while adding another 58 rushing with his legs. Over their last three games, the Cavaliers have averaged 459.3 total YPG which is +69.0 net YPG above their season average. Virginia has played five straight games Over the Total — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after playing at least three straight Overs. The Cavaliers have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with at least two weeks of preparation. Florida has covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. The Gators have not allowed more than 256 total yards in three straight games as well — but they have failed to then cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games are not allowing more than 275 yards in three straight contests. Florida has become primarily a passing team on offense behind junior Kyle Trask — they are 16th in the nation by averaging 300.4 passing YPG. But the Gators have not rushed for more than 77 yards in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in two straight contests. Florida was not as dominant on the road this year where they only outscored their opponents by +3.2 PPG while being outgained in those six games by -8.0 net YPG. The Gators have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with at least two weeks of rest and preparation.

FINAL TAKE: Florida scored an emotional 41-15 victory over Michigan in last year’s Peach Bowl in what was revenge to two recent losses to the Wolverines. Now after a 10-2 season where they lost their two biggest games against LSU and Georgia, being a two-touchdown favorite may be uninspiring for this team now. The Gators have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral field. 10* CFB Orange Bowl ESPN Special with Virginia Cavaliers (251) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (252) in the Orange Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Illinois Fighting Illini (249) plus the points versus the California Golden Bears (250) in the RedBox Bowl. THE SITUATION: Illinois (6-6) stumbled into the postseason with two straight losses after suffering a 29-10 upset loss at home to Northwestern as a 6.5-point favorite back on November 30th. California (7-5) has won their last two games with their 28-18 upset win at UCLA on November 30th as a 1-point underdog. This game will be played in Levi’s’ Stadium in Santa Clara.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING ILLINI PLUS THE POINTS: Illinois managed only 160 yards of offense in that loss to the Wildcats which was their de-facto bowl game in what was otherwise a very disappointing season for them. The Illini were only on the field of 18:42 minutes in that game with Northwestern controlling time of possession. But Illinois has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to generate at least 275 yards of offense in their last game. They also have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after playing their last two games against Big Ten opponents. This has been a breakthrough season in the fourth season under head coach Lovie Smith with this team pulling off upset victories over Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Purdue while also playing Michigan and Iowa on the road pretty tough. The Illini have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as the underdog. Injuries have held back this team but they look to get their best quarterback back in Brandon Peters for this game after clearing the concussion protocol that kept him out in that loss to Northwestern. The former Michigan QB had 17 touchdown passes to just 7 interceptions in ten games while posting a nice QBR of 129.7. But the underappreciated element of this Illini team is their opportunistic defense that generated 22 sacks with 18 forced fumbles, 12 interceptions and four defensive touchdowns. Smith was the defensive coordinator for a St. Louis Rams’ team that went to the Super Bowl before taking the Chicago Bears to a Super Bowl as their head coach — he knows a thing or two about coaching defense. Illinois has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Fighting Illini have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field. Cal may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. The Golden Bears also had injury issues at quarterback with them being a perfect 6-0 when sophomore QB Chase Garbers played the entire game. While Garbers is healthy, I am not sure he will still not split time between him and fellow (graduate transfer) redshirt sophomore Devon Modster who has potential after transferring from UCLA. The Bears benefited from four close wins decided by one scoring possession this season. They are an unreliable favorite laying close to a touchdown when considering they were outscored this season while being outgained by -62.5 net YPG. While their defense held their opponents to just 22.1 PPG which was 33rd in the nation, they surrendered 385.5 total YPG which was a bit out of whack with those scoring numbers since that total defensive mark drops to 63rd best in the FBS. Cal allowed 415.8 total YPG in their six games away from home where they were outgained by -97.3 YPG. They also were outgained by -36.0 net YPG over their last three games despite winning two of them. The Golden Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as the favorite. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: Cal has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 bowl games. This contest will be played within an hour of their Berkeley campus. But if you think a big crowd is coming from their students over Christmas break — and that they will make enough noise to play more than a small role in this game — well, I have some property in the Florida swamplands that you may be interested in purchasing. Much of a home-field advantage comes from actually playing on a team’s home field — and this game is being played in the home of the 49ers. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Year with the Illinois Fighting Illini (249) plus the points versus the California Golden Bears (250) in the RedBox Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Western Michigan Broncos (245) plus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (246) in the First Responder Bowl. THE SITUATION: Western Michigan (7-5) looks to bounce-back from a 17-14 upset loss at Northern Illinois as a 10-point favorite that ended their regular season on November 26th. Western Kentucky (8-4) has won their last three games after their 31-26 win over Middle Tennessee on November 30th as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: That was an excruciating loss for head coach Tim Lester’s team as it cost them an opportunity to play in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game. Western Michigan defeated both of those participants, Miami (OH) and Central Michigan by at least two touchdowns so there is a case to be made that they were the best team in the conference overall this season. But the seventeen returning starters from last years' 7-6 team have the opportunity to improve on that record while redeeming themselves from their ugly 49-18 loss to BYU in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. The Broncos should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Western Michigan has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss to a MAC opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival. Furthermore, the Broncos have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. Western Michigan did outgain the Huskies in that game by +98 net yards while also winning the first down battle by a 16 to 9 margin. The offense is led by senior Jon Wassink who leads an attack that finished 19th in the nation by averaging 457.3 total YPG while also averaging 24th in the FBS by scoring 34.2 PPG. Defense was the Achilles’ heel for this team — but they did hold their last three opponents to 366.7 YPG which was -47.9 net YPG below their season average. Wassink should get plenty of time to throw this afternoon behind an offensive line that Pro Football Focus grades as the 28th best pass protection unit in the nation. PFF also grades the Hilltoppers’ pass rush as just 80th best in the country. Western Kentucky surrendered 301 passing yards in their victory over the Blue Raiders a month ago — and they are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. This team under first-year head coach Tyson Helton pulled off five upset wins this season while defeating four teams that qualified for bowl games. But the group might be satisfied with their accomplishment — and they have a rookie head coach leading them into this bowl game. The Western Kentucky defense has been shaky down the stretch as they allowed their last three opponents to average 398.0 YPG which was +60.2 net YPG above their season average.

FINAL TAKE: The Hilltoppers relished in the role of the underdog this season after going just 3-9 in last year’s disastrous campaign — but this program has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as the favorite. 10* CFB First Responder Bowl with the Western Michigan Broncos (245) plus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (246). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (130) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (129). THE SITUATION: Seattle (11-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 27-13 upset loss at home to Arizona as an 8-point favorite lat Sunday. San Francisco (12-3) has won two of their last three games with their 34-31 win over the Los Angeles Rams as a 7-point favorite last Saturday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Much is at stake in this game with the winner taking the NFC West crown with the loser taking the 5th seed in the playoffs and a date on the road next week. If the 49ers win this game, they also secure the top seed in the NFC side of the playoff bracket. Seattle is a M*A*S*H unit right now with their stable of running backs decimated by injuries and left tackle Duane Brown out with a bicep injury. The Seahawks had to resort to signing former players Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin off the street to serve as the running backs this week. While this is not ideal, if there is one position (outside of kicker) where a team could sign a player off the street and still see success that week, it is at running back — and both players are familiar with the playbook already. In head coach Pete Carroll and quarterback Russell Wilson, we will trust in this one to develop a game plan that puts his offense in a position to succeed even with this attrition. Seattle is 37-18-14 ATS in their last 69 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss at home. The Seahawks have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. The offense has struggled as of late with the offensive line not giving Wilson enough time in the pocket — he has been sacked 26 times over the last six games. Yet Seattle has scored at least 27 points in three of those contests. The Seahawks are also just 4-3 at home this season — but it would be foolish to diminish the home field edge they will enjoy tonight. Seattle is 33-15-3 in their last 51 games as an underdog — and they have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games at home as the dog. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Niners play on defense has collapsed since the injury of the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Kwon Alexander. After holding their opponents to just 11 PPG in their first seven contests, they have allowed their last eight opponents to average 26.5 PPG. This defense has become even more banged up as the season goes on with this unit now missing defensive lineman Dee Ford and safety Jaquiski Tartt. The Niners have allowed their last three opponents to score 35.3 PPG while averaging 383.3 total YPG which is -105.9 net YPG above their defensive season average. San Francisco has allowed their last three opponents to score at least 29 points — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 41 of their last 62 games after allowing their last two opponents to score at least 25 points. The Niners allowed the Rams to pass for 323 yards last week — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. This team does not embrace the role of the favorite as they are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games when laying the points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road as the favorite. San Francisco is also just 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games against teams from the NFC with this including them going 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against fellow NFC West foes.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers will be looking to avenge a 27-24 upset loss at home in overtime to the Seahawks back on November 11th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss at home. San Francisco is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Seattle to play the Seahawks. 25* NFC West Game of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (130) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (129). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (132) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (131). THE SITUATION: Denver (6-9) has won three of their last four games with their 27-17 win over Detroit as a 9.5-point favorite last Sunday. Oakland (7-8) remained alive in the AFC playoff race last week with their 24-17 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders need to win this game and then see Tennessee and Pittsburgh lose with Indianapolis winning (for strength of victory tie-break implications) and then a little more help to bolster their strength of victory tie-breaker resume (like New England winning) — so the pressure is on head coach Jon Gruden’s group. The Steelers and Titans are both on the road so this playoff scenario is not completely out of the realm. But I do not expect Oakland to play well. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 47 of their last 74 games after an upset victory — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in seven of these last nine situations. Oakland has also failed to cover the point spewed in 23 of their last 32 games after an upset victory over an AFC West rival — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in these last four situations. Additionally, the inconsistent Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after a point spread victory. Oakland enters this game far from at full strength with rookie phenom Josh Jacobs out with his shoulder injury and the offensive line banged up with left tackle Trent Brown out and guard Richie Incognito questionable with an ankle. The Raiders defense is also depleted with injuries to safety Karl Joseph and defensive end Arden Key making the season-ending suspension to linebacker Vontaz Burfict even more devastating. There is a reason why this team had lost four straight games before they upset a reeling Chargers team. Oakland stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after losing three of their last four games. The Raiders are being outscored by -10.8 PPG away from home while allowing their home hosts to score 29.9 PPG. Oakland is 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 road games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, Oakland has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams from the AFC — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. Denver is playing for next season as they hope to build momentum under first-year head coach Vic Fangio and quarterback Drew Lock. The rookie has played well since getting a look under center — he completed 25 of 33 passes last week for 192 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions in leading the Broncos to victory. Denver is completing 65.3% of their passes over their last three games while averaging 233 passing YPG on a solid 6.9 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt average with Lock taking the vast majority of those snaps. The Broncos are scoring 22.7 PPG while averaging 330.0 total YPG over those last three games which is a nice improvement over their 17.7 PPG and 302.6 YPG season averages. Any bump in offensive production makes this a much better team given the outstanding defense this team still plays. Denver ranks 10th in the NFL in both allowing only 20.1 PPG and surrendering just 327.7 total YPG. The Broncos are even stingier at home where they hold their visitors to just 18.3 PPG along with only 300.6 total YPG. Denver has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games with the Total set at 38.5 to 42. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Denver will be motivated not only to build momentum for next season but also to play the role of spoiler for the Raiders’ playoff hopes. The Broncos will also be looking to avenge a 24-16 upset loss in Oakland back on September 9th where they were 3-point favorites. Denver has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* AFC West Game of the Year with the Denver Broncos (132) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (243) minus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (244) in the Fiesta Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Clemson (13-0) remained undefeated this season with their 62-17 win over Virginia as a 29-point favorite in the ACC Championship Game on December 7th. Ohio State (13-0) won the Big Ten Championship that same day with their 34-21 win over Wisconsin as a 16.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The quants that measure in-season performance mostly rate the Buckeyes as the better team entering this game — but those quantitative assessments do not take into account anything from last season. Dabo Swinney returned twelve starters from last year’s perfect 15-0 national champion squad including is phenom at quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. I am just not going to hand out any demerits for the Tigers failure to overly impress the College Football Playoff committee by failing to generate enough style points against teams like Syracuse and North Carolina early in their schedule. Given that Clemson was likely to reach the playoff even if they suffered an early season loss, it was reasonable for Swinney to prime his team to play their best football in the second half of the season. The Tigers displayed the balance on offense that will make it very hard for any defense to slow them down this postseason. In generating 619 yards of offense against the Cavaliers, Clemson rushed for 211 yards while adding another 408 yards in the air. Lawrence leads a loaded offense that is 4th in the nation that scores 46.5 PPG while also ranking 3rd in the nation by averaging 547.7 total YPG. Lawrence has not thrown an interception since October 19th while producing the highest Pro Football Focus quarterback grade over the last four weeks of the regular season in all of college football. Since Week Nine of the regular season, Lawrence leads the nation with 20 touchdown passes while averaging 11.1 Yards-Per-Passing Attempt which is also best in the nation. His 214 Efficiency Rating over that span is also best in the nation. Where Lawrence has improved from leading the Tigers to the national championship as a freshman was with his mobility — he rushed for 407 yards on 77 carries while reaching the end zone seven times. Over their last three games, Clemson is scoring 50.7 PPG. The Tigers also have the nation’s top statistical defense that holds their opponents to just 10.6 PPG along with only 244.7 total YPG. Clemson allowed only 19 combined points in their two playoff wins last season. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 bowl games. Clemson has also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record including their last six contests against winners — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games as the favorite. Clemson leads the nation by allowing only 138.5 passing YPG — and Ohio State has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against opponents that do not allow more than 150 passing YPG. I do give the edge to the Tigers at quarterback with Lawrence versus the Buckeyes’ Justin Fields. Not only does Fields lack playoff experience but he can also stand in the pocket a tick or two too long — he has been sacked nine times. Fields is very good — but he may not be at full strength either with an injured knee that has required him to wear a brace over his last few games which has limited his mobility. Ohio State has averaged 534.5 total YPG over their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 450 YPG in their last two contests. The Buckeyes allowed just 12.5 PPG this season — but they surrendered 21.0 PPG over their last four games and they have not played a team with as much speed as the Tigers. Ohio State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning five straight games. The Buckeyes have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams from the ACC.

FINAL TAKE: Nick Saban was on the record after seeing his Alabama teams lose the National Championship to Clemson last January by a 44-16 score that he has never faced off against a better coached team than that group. All those Tigers coaches are back. Swinney has built the best program in the country in terms of recruiting and production — there is a reason they have won 28 games in a row while enjoying a 71-4 run over the last five seasons where they have reached the playoffs all five times. I like first-year head coach Ryan Day — but this Buckeyes team does not recruit quite as well as the Tigers and this is their first playoff experience since 2016. 10* CFB Clemson-Ohio State ESPN Special with the Clemson Tigers (243) minus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (244). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (241) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (242) in Peach Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (12-1) has won five straight games after defeating Baylor as a 9-point favorite by a 30-23 score on December 7th in the Big 12 Championship Game. LSU (13-0) remained undefeated this season by defeating Georgia by a 37-10 score as a 7.5-point favorite to win the SEC Championship on December 7th. This game will be played in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS PLUS THE POINTS: This Oklahoma team is a very dangerous underdog in this spot. This is an experienced group of players and coaching staff that is more familiar with the playoff atmosphere this game will have then that of LSU. This will be the fourth CFB Playoff in the last five years for this program. And quarterback Jalen Hurts has starting experience in the CFB Playoffs with Alabama — and he is very familiar with the LSU defense as well given his two previous starts against the Tigers. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings against teams from the SEC. The Sooners may be a more dangerous underdog this time around than they have been in the last two College Football Playoff Semifinals due to the improvement of their defense under first-year defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. After allowing 33.3 PPG along with 6.1 Yards-Per-Play last season, Oklahoma improved to giving up just 24.5 PPG along with only 5.3 YPP this year. The Sooners’ defense was 25th in the nation by allowing 330.6 total YPG fueled by a pass defense that limited their opponents to just 198.5 passing YPG which was 23rd in the nation. And this is a unit that will be very familiar facing the spread passing attack that the Tigers’ installed this season. Over their last three games, Oklahoma allowed only 21.0 PPG along with just 268.0 total YPG. The Sooners are still a very potent football team on offense as they averaged 43.2 PPG while totaling 554.2 YPG which ranked 6th and 2nd in the nation. Third-year head coach Lincoln Riley has seen his team average 41 PPG over the last two College Football Playoff Semifinals against outstanding defenses from Alabama and Georgia. In many ways, Riley’s schemes are just fancy window dressing for Oklahoma’s old school wishbone offense — they are 11th in the nation by averaging 257.2 rushing YPG. Riley is a master at designing run plays that best put his offensive line in a position to succeed. Hurts has rushed the ball at least 20 times in four of his last five games since the team suffered their lone loss of the season to Kansas State. Hurts also completed 71.8% of his passes for 3634 passing yards with 32 touchdown passes and just 7 interceptions. Hurts offers the team a genuine deep passing threat to keep opposing defenses honest as he ranked 6th in the nation with 30 completions of 30 or more yards. This combination of characteristics has helped the Sooners cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog. Oklahoma has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. And while the Sooners have not covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. When it comes to LSU, I worry about teams that achieved so many goals in the regular season to now let their guard down just a bit. The Tigers enjoyed their best regular season in years by going undefeated to win the SEC which, of course, included a victory over Alabama. Quarterback Joe Burrow went through an emotional Heisman Trophy celebration. Does this group think they are a team of destiny now? They are facing a very feisty Sooners’ team that will be playing in this game for a third straight season. This Tigers defense is not elite after ranking just 32nd in the nation by allowing 341.3 total YPG. Even worse, in their six games away from Death Valley, LSU allowed 29.5 PPG along with 447.5 total YPG. The Tigers have struggled against teams with mobile quarterbacks like Ole Miss who jacked them for 614 total yards with 404 of that production coming on the ground. LSU gained 481 yards against the outstanding Georgia defense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And while the Tigers have not committed a turnover in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not committing a turnover in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: While LSU is the top seed in these Semifinals, bare in mind that no number one seed has gone on to win the National Championship. I appreciate that the Sooners are out a few key players due to suspension and injury — most notably defensive end Ronnie Perkins and safety Dellarin Turner-Yell. The MVP for this Oklahoma defense is their coordinator in Grinch — and he has had time to adjust. I expect this team to rally around each other after Riley had the guts to suspend players. LSU has a big injury of their own with running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire questionable with a hamstring injury he suffered last week. At the end of the day, the Tigers are simply overvalued by the public in being asked to lay around two touchdowns. 25* College Football Playoff Game of the Year with the Oklahoma Sooners (241) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (242). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (237) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (238) in the Camping World Bowl. THE SITUATION: Iowa State (7-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped to end their regular season with their 27-17 upset loss at Kansas State as a 4-point favorite on November 30th. Notre Dame (10-2) has won five straight games with their 45-24 win at Stanford as a 17.5-point favorite on November 30th. This game will be played at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa State should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. The Cyclones have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss to a Big 12 rival — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after a loss. This is a dangerous football, especially as an underdog. Head coach Matt Campbell’s team played six bowl teams this season — and they saw four of their losses decided by just 11 combined points. Iowa State suffered heartbreaking losses to Oklahoma by 1-point and Baylor by 2-points. Led by sophomore quarterback Brock Purdy, the Cyclones are tied for 20th in the nation by averaging 458.7 total YPG fueled by a passing attack that is 8th in the FBS by averaging 318.3 passing YPG. Iowa State has been tough away from him where they are outscoring their opponents by +3.8 PPG while outgaining them by +51.0 net YPG despite a 2-3 record on the road. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Iowa State has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on a neutral field as an underdog. Furthermore, the Cyclones have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games with the Total set int he 49.5 to 56 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when playing with at least two weeks of rest and preparation. Notre Dame has now covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. The Fighting Irish have not committed a turnover in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after not committing a turnover in at least two straight contests. The Notre Dame offense had been clicking on all cylinders to close out the regular season as they have scored at least 38 points in their last four games. But the Irish have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after scoring at least 31 points in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games after scoring at least 31 points in four straight contests. The Irish have also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after winning at least eight of their last ten games.

FINAL TAKE: After losing their two biggest games of the year at Georgia and Michigan, it is hard to see this Notre Dame team being that excited to face the Cyclones. They have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 bowl games including failing to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 bowl games. Iowa State can salvage their season after some tough narrow losses with a victory over a blue blood like the Irish. 10* CFB Camping World Bowl ABC-TV Special with the Iowa State Cyclones (237) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (238). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (235) plus the points versus the Air Force Falcons (236) in the Cheez-It Bowl. THE SITUATION: Washington State (6-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in the Apple Bowl with their loss at Washington by a 31-13 score on November 29th as a 7.5-point underdog. Air Force (10-2) has won seven straight games with their 20-6 win over Wyoming as a 13.5-point favorite on November 30th. This game is being played at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Falcons may be due for a letdown in this bowl game as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win at home over a Mountain West Conference rival — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win over a conference foe. Air Force has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And while the Falcons have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three contests. Air Force has been helped by only committing one turnover in each of their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. The historical team trends regarding the respective personalities of both teams suggest this clash of styles is not favorable for the Air Force. The Cougars allow their opponents to average 456.8 total YPG — but the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games against teams who allow at least 450 YPG. And while the Air Force controls the clock on average of 33:43 minutes per game, Washington State has covered the point spread in 28 of their last 42 games against opponents that average at least 32 minutes with the football per game. The Falcons average 292.5 rushing YPG — but the Cougars have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games against teams who average at least 230 rushing YPG. Additionally, Washington State has covered the point spread in expected higher scoring games as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Washington State is reliable in the role of the underdog where they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Pac-12. 10* CFB Friday Late Show Bailout with the Washington State Cougars (235) plus the points versus the Air Force Falcons (236) in the Cheez-It Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (234) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (233) in the Holiday Bowl. THE SITUATION: Iowa (9-3) has won three straight games with their 27-24 win over Nebraska as a 4-point favorite back on November 29th. USC (8-4) has also won three straight games with their 52-35 win over UCLA as a 12.5-point favorite back on November 23rd as a 12.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at SDCCU Stadium in San Diego.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a narrow win by 3 points or less against a Big Ten rival. And while the Hawkeyes have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. This Iowa team lost their three games by a combined 14 points. This is a typical Kirk Ferentz team that is very physical with an outstanding defense and playmakers on offense. The Hawkeyes are 5th in the nation by allowing only 13.2 PPG — and they are 11th in the FBS by giving up just 304.3 total YPG. Iowa held their opponents to -81 YPG below their opponent’s season average. The offense is led by senior quarterback Nate Stanley who will be using this opportunity to bolster his NFL draft prospects. Iowa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when given at least two weeks to prepare under Ferentz. The Hawkeyes are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December. And in their last 8 games against teams outside the Big Ten, Iowa has covered the point spread 6 times. USC may be due for a letdown after avenging their 2018 loss to cross-town rival UCLA as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home by at least 17 points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 19 games after a win at home over a Pac-12 opponent. Additionally, USC is just 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory so consistency is an issue for this team. This team has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning at least three straight contests. Complacency is also an issue for this program — while the program decided to retain head coach Clay Helton for a sixth season, the Trojans then brought-in the bottom rated recruiting class earlier this month. While this remains a talented team tonight, this is a group that makes too many mistakes under Helton’s leadership. USC is 111th in the nation by averaging -0.58 net turnovers per game. The Trojans are also tied for 111th in the nation by averaging 7.25 penalties per game — and they rank 124th by surrendering an average of 71.33 penalty YPG. These are the type of teams that Ferentz’s teams exploit — Iowa has covered the point spread in 35 of their last 55 games against teams that average at least 60 penalty YPG. USC also is suspect on defense with a unit that has been riddled by injuries all season. The Trojans are 84th in the nation by allowing 415.4 total YPG while also ranking 99th in the FBS by surrendering 248.9 passing YPG. USC allows their opponents to average +13 YPG above their season average — and they have allowed their last four opponents to average 34 PPG. UCLA passed for 383 yards against them a month ago — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. The Trojans rank 111th in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate on offense — and the Hawkeyes faced only one team (Rutgers) with a worse opponent Success Rate all season. USC is loaded on offense behind freshman QB Kedon Slovis and three uber-talented wide receivers. But this passing game will be tested by an Iowa defense that ranked 11th in the nation by allowing just 184.2 passing YPG. USC has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams outside the Pac-12. The Trojans have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games played in December including failing to cover their last 5 December contests.

FINAL TAKE: USC has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight bowl games while also failing to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 minor bowl games. Iowa has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 minor bowl games under Ferentz. This will be an emotional game for this Iowa program after their legendary coach, Hayden Fry, passed away ten days earlier. Ferentz took over the program from Fry in 1999 — and a victory tonight would secure the Hawkeyes’ first 10-win season since 2015. 25* CFB FS1-TV Game of the Year with the Iowa Hawkeyes (234) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (233). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (232) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (231) in the Texas Bowl. THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (7-5) has lost their last two games after being humiliated by LSU by a 50-7 score as an 18-point underdog back on November 30th. Oklahoma State (8-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on November 30th with their 34-16 loss to Oklahoma as a 14-point underdog. This game will be played on a neutral field in Houston’s NRG Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: Texas A&M played a brutal schedule this season with their five losses all occurring against teams that are currently ranked in the top thirteen teams in the nation. Head coach Jimbo Fisher has a young team that he is trying to build into a national championship contender — so erasing the bad taste from everyone’s mouth from getting shellacked by the Tigers is important. The Aggies have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. A -3 net turnover margin to LSU certainly did not help matters — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Despite facing three of the top offenses in the nation in Clemson, Alabama, and the LSU, this Texas A&M defense held their opponents to -78 YPG below their season average. Overall, they rank 31st in the nation by holding their opponents to just 340.8 total YPG. The Aggies were very competitive in their previous game in Athens in what ended up being a 19-13 loss to Georgia. That is a brutal final two games on the road — and Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. This Aggies’ offense led by junior dual-threat QB Kellen Mond scored at least 30 points in six games this season when not facing Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, LSU, and Auburn’s stout defense. Oklahoma State was a shell of itself by the end of the season given the season-ending injuries to quarterback Spencer Sanders and All-American wide receiver Tylan Wallace. In their last two games with former Hawai’i transfer Dru Brown under center, the Cowboys averaged just 18 PPG while averaging only 305 YPG. This is not a good sign for a Mike Gundy coached team who has seen his team play three straight Unders as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after playing three straight Unders. Defense is an issue for this team after they allowed 418.1 total YPG this season which was 87th in the nation. While Oklahoma State was 4-2 on the road, they only outgained those opponents by +4.0 net YPG due to their defense giving up 454.5 total YPG. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning four of their last five games.

FINAL TAKE: Fisher has led his team to victories in six of his eight bowl games. Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games outside the SEC. They are also 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games when favored. 10* CFB Texas Bowl ESPN Special with the Texas A&M Aggies (232) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (231). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (227) minus the points versus the Temple Owls (228) in the Military Bowl. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (6-6) has won their last two games to become bowl eligible with their 41-0 win at North Carolina State as an 11-point favorite on November 30th. Temple (8-4) has won three of their last four games with their 49-17 win over UConn as a 26-point favorite to close out their season on November 30th. This game will be played on a neutral field in Annapolis, Maryland.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS MINUS THE POINTS: North Carolina should feed off the momentum from decisively defeating their in-state rival to secure bowl eligibility with their sixth victory of the season. The Tar Heels have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. This is certainly a battle-tested North Carolina team that took the reigning National Champions in Clemson to their closest game of the season in that 21-20 loss. The Tar Heels have played ten Power-Five conference opponents, along with one of the best Group of Five football programs in Appalachian State this season. North Carolina suffered six losses decided by one scoring possession including two of those losses in overtime. The Tar Heels are led by freshman quarterback Sam Howell who led an offense that ranked 24th in the nation by averaging 285.0 passing YPG. Howell threw for 35 touchdown passes while tossing just 7 interceptions. Howell was also third in the nation with 18 touchdown passes of more than 20 yards — and he was 9th in the nation with an Adjusted Completion Percentage of 49.4%. This is a talented North Carolina offense that should benefit from the extra weeks of practice and preparation for this game. They averaged +111 net YPG above the average opponent’s YPG season defensive average. The Tar Heels were also effective on the road where they outscored their opponents by +6.0 PPG while outgaining them by +111.3 net YPG. Additionally, North Carolina has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as the favorite. Temple has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning three of their last four contests. The Owls have not faced nearly as competitive a schedule as the Tar Heels with just two Power Five conference opponents in Maryland and Georgia Tech who were both bottom feeders in their conferences. Yet Temple was outscored away from home by -4.4 PPG while being outgained in their five games on the road by -15.0 net YPG. I am not a big fan of junior quarterback Anthony Russo who led an offense that averaged -26 YPG below their opponent’s season defensive average. The supposed calling card for this Owls team is their defense that ranked 43rd in the nation by allowing just 23.5 PPG while also ranking 46th in the FBS by giving up only 364.8 total YPG. Yet North Carolina’s defensive numbers are comparable as they allowed 24.6 PPG (49th in the nation) and 381.6 total YPG (61st in the nation) despite facing a vastly superior schedule. Temple has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: It is worth mentioning that Temple head coach Rod Carey lost all six of his bowl games during his tenure at Northern Illinois. Frankly, I worry that this consideration would be overvalued by the betting public — but with a few more tickets going the Owls’ way (as of this writing) as an underdog, that concern does not deter me from investing in the Tar Heels. Perhaps Carey is not as averse to prepare his teams for bowl games? I suspect his bad record says more about the talent he had with the Huskies. Mack Brown has a 13-8 bowl record in his long career — and he should be motivated to lead his team to victory since he has not overseen a bowl victory since 2012. I suspect that Brown’s tenure at ESPN makes him value these postseason games a little more than other coaches — and a victory would fuel the momentum of the resurrection of the Tar Heels program. However, the bottom line is that this North Carolina roster is more talented and better tested than this Temple team. 10* CFB Military Bowl ESPN Special with the North Carolina Tar Heels (227) minus the points versus the Temple Owls (228). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Eastern Michigan Eagles (226) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (225) in the Quick Lane Bowl. THE SITUATION: Eastern Michigan (6-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on November 29th with their 34-26 upset loss at home against Kent State as a 4-point favorite. Pittsburgh (7-5) has lost two straight games after their 26-19 upset loss at home to Boston College as a 9-point favorite on November 30th. This bowl game will be played at Ford Field in Detroit.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Eastern Michigan should respond with a strong effort under sixth-year head coach Chris Creighton as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a point spread loss. The Eagles should be very motivated to play well in this bowl game a little less than an hour away from their Ypsilanti campus. This the third bowl game for this program in their last four years but they are fortunate to get the invitation with their 6-6 record coming out of the Mid-American Conference. Ten starters returned from last year’s 7-6 team that lost to Georgia Southern in the Camellia Bowl by a 23-21 score. The Eagles should be able to score points behind quarterback Mike Glass III who completed 67.8% of his passes with 22 touchdown passes. Eastern Michigan averaged 37.7 PPG along with 478.3 total YPG over their last three contests. The Eagles generated 409 yards in their loss to the Golden Flashes — and they have then covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Getting their senior running back, Shaq Vann back has also helped this offense. After missing three games midseason, Vann has returned to rush for 556 yards in his last six games while scoring all eight of his touchdowns over that span. The Eastern Michigan defense has also played better to close out their regular season — they have held their last three opponents to 21.7 PPG along with 376.3 total YPG. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as a double-digit underdog. Eastern Michigan has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games against teams outside the MAC. Pittsburgh has been an unreliable big favorite as they are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a double-digit favorite. Eight of their games this season were decided by one scoring possession with them winning five of those contests to secure their bowl eligibility. The Panthers enter this bowl game disappointed after a late-season slide took them out of contention to win the Coastal Division of the ACC. This team limps into this game having scored just 17.7 PPG over their last three contests while being outscored by -9.3 PPG in those last three games while surrendering 369.3 total YPG which is -66.8 net YPG above their season average. Injuries on the defensive side of the ball along with the continual slide away from the typical offense that head coach Pat Narduzzi likes to implement likely explains that decline of play. While the Panthers averaged 5.6 Yards-Per-Carry last season, they averaged just 3.5 YPC this season. They are also passing the ball 53% of the time which is uncharacteristic of a ground-and-pound Narduzzi offense. Quarterback Kenny Pickett completes only 60.9% of his passes while tossing just 10 touchdown passes with 9 interceptions.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 bowl games. 10* CFB Quick Lane Bowl ESPN Special with the Eastern Michigan Eagles (226) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (225) in the Quick Lane Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (223) minus the points versus the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (224) in the Independence Bowl. THE SITUATION: Miami (6-6) has suffered two straight upset losses after their 27-17 loss at Duke as a 9.5-point favorite on November 30th. Louisiana Tech (9-3) snapped a two-game losing streak on November 30th with their 41-27 win over UTSA as a 21-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field in Shreveport, Louisiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES MINUS THE POINTS: The Bulldogs are a trendy pick as an underdog behind seventh-year head coach Skip Holtz that has overseen a perfect 5-0 record straight-up in bowl games in his tenure at Louisiana Tech. And with this game being played just about an hour away from the Bulldogs’ campus in Ruston, some observers fancy some level of home-field advantage for Louisiana Tech. Well, the Bulldogs are not very familiar with the stadium and they will need the sparse crowd to be very loud to make a tangible difference even with the majority of the ticket-goers rooting for them. Louisiana Tech played the 141st most difficult schedule this season which means there were a handful of FCS opponents that had a more challenging slate of games this season. The Bulldogs played only one Power-Five conference opponent in Texas who crushed them by a 45-14 score in their opening game of the season. Their best victory is probably against Southern Mississippi depending on one’s feelings about Florida International. Yet this team was still outscored in their last three games by -4.3 PPG while being outgained in these contests by -45.4 net YPG. It is telling that Louisiana Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams from the ACC. The Bulldogs have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after winning eight of their last ten games. Observers are questioning the motivation level for this Miami team playing in a lesser bowl game — but I expect a highly motivated group under first-year head coach Manny Diaz. Diaz needs to end his first season as a head coach on a positive note after ending the season with two straight upset losses to that FIU team (in embarrassing fashion on a neutral field) before the loss on the road to the Blue Devils. The Hurricanes are also missing a handful of players who are either injury or skipping this game to prepare for the NFL draft. In that respect, the practices for this bowl game have been the first practices for the 2020 season for Diaz. Miami has tons of depth on their defensive line so losing two of those players in that rotation are not as devastating as they would be if the Hurricanes were playing one of the better Power-Five conference programs. The core of the team that was ranked 13th in the nation by allowing just 307.6 total PPG remains. Diaz has also used the bowl practices as an opportunity for a new quarterback competition between redshirt freshman Jarren Williams and redshirt sophomore N’Kosi Perry who split time this season along with former Ohio State transfer Tate Martell who had to leave the team twice this season but who has been back with the team this month. The Hurricanes defeated five bowl teams this season in what was a vastly superior strength of schedule than the Bulldogs. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. And while Louisiana Tech averages 277.3 passing YPG, Miami has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who average at least 250 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Louisiana Tech is also not at optimal strength with two-time All-American cornerback Amik Robertson skipping this game to prepare for the NFL draft. He leaves a defense that was just 98th in the nation by allowing 247.8 passing YPG. I trust the oddsmakers on this one with them installing the Hurricanes as around a touchdown favorite. Miami has lost eight of their last nine bowl games so I do expect their players to be motivated to end this season on a high note under their first-year head coach. And I do not think highly of the argument that Louisiana Tech retains much of an advantage at all in that their bus ride to a near-empty stadium will have been only around an hour. 10* CFB Independence Bowl ESPN Special with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (223) minus the points versus the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (224). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the BYU Cougars (221) minus the point(s) versus the Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors (222) in the Hawai’i Bowl. THE SITUATION: BYU (7-5) saw their five-game winning streak snapped back on November 30th with their 13-3 upset loss at San Diego State as a 4-point favorite. Hawai’i (9-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped on December 7th with their 31-10 loss at Boise State as a 14-point underdog in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. Hawai’i hosts this game in their Aloha Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINT(S): BYU has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. BYU has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Cougars outgained the Aztecs by a decisive 416 to 269 yardage margin but they suffered a -3 net turnover margin in that contest— and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after enduring a -3 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Quarterback Zach Wilson should benefit from the extra time to rest and prepare for this bowl game after missing four games during the season. He returned to play the last three games of the season — and he should be fired up to play in this bowl game after completing all 18 of his passes last year in BYU’s 49-18 thrashing of Western Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Despite their difficulties to score points against the stout San Diego State defense, they have still averaged 33.7 PPG in their last three games along with 497.7 total YPG which +59.0 Net YPG above their season average. BYU has also held its last three opponents to just 15.7 PPG along with only 277.3 total YPG. BYU has also been a good road warrior despite their 3-3 record as they are outgaining their home hosts by +98.8 net YPG. Additionally, the Cougars have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against Mountain West Conference opponents. Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 44 of their last 52 games after a straight-up loss — and they are just 17-43-1 ATS in their last 61 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Rainbow Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road by at least 21 points. Hawai’i has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a loss to an MWC rival. Quarterback Cole McDonald completed just 20 of 36 passes for 241 yards with no touchdown passes and one interception against the Broncos as he continued to be inconsistent in the second half of this season. The Rainbow Warriors run-and-shoot offense has been too loose with the football as they are averaging -1.0 net turnovers per game which listed for 124th in the nation. Hawai’i also has a suspect defense that ranks 91st in the nation by allowing 426.1 total YPG due largely to a suspect run defense that ranks 105th in the nation by allowing 200.8 rushing YPG. The Rainbow Warriors are 6-2 at home but they are allowing their visitors to generate 461.0 YPG. Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home. The Rainbow Warriors have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Hawai’i is just 4-4 straight-up in their eight opportunities to play in the Hawai’i Bowl on their home field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those games. The Rainbow Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 bowl games. Hawai’i is playing their third bowl game in Hawai’i over the last four seasons — so their motivation is a question. BYU has won their first two bowl games under head coach Kalani Sitake. 10* CFB Hawai’i ESPN Special with the BYU Cougars (221) minus the point(s) versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (222). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (482) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (481). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (10-4) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 39-10 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 1-point favorite. Green Bay (11-3) has won three in a row with their 21-13 win over Chicago as a 4-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota will be without their top two running backs tonight with Delvin Cook and Alexander Mattison dealing with injuries. The Vikings still have capable running backs tonight with former Cincinnati Bearcat Mike Boone along with a former first-round draft pick in Ameer Abdullah so I am not very concerned about Minnesota having to dig deeper into their depth chart. Boone was great in the preseason so he should be fine as the lead back tonight. The Vikings are very tough to beat at home where they are 6-0 for the first time since 2009. They are outscoring their guests by +13.5 PPG while outgaining these foes by +53.6 net YPG. The Vikings have a great defense that ranks 6th in the NFL by allowing just 18.5 PPG. The Vikings defense is even better when playing at home where they are holding their opponents to just 14.2 PPG along with only 314.7 total YPG. Minnesota is 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Vikings are also 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games as the favorite. This team has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams from the NFC — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games in December. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. This Packers team has been grinding out victories in close games this season — they have six net close wins decided by one scoring possession. But Green Bay is being outgained by -35.7 net YPG this season — and they have been outgained by -19.0 YPG over their last three contests. And while the Packers are 4-2 on the road this year, they are being outscored in those games while also being outgained by -107.3 net YPG in those contests. Green Bay is averaging only 271.0 total YPG away from Lambeau Field. First-year head coach Matt LeFleur has this team running the ball more — but he has been very predictable with his game planning. Not including the first quarter (with initial scripted plays), quarterback Aaron Rodgers is completing less than 60% of his passes with only four touchdown passes over his last eighteen (non-first quarter) quarters. Those unimpressive numbers suggest LeFleur is getting out-schemed as the game moves forward. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games on the road as an underdog. Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota will be looking to avenge a 21-16 loss at Green Bay back on September 15th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities to host the Packers. 10* NFL Green Bay-Minnesota ESPN Special with the Minnesota Vikings (482) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (219) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights in the Gasparilla Bowl. THE SITUATION: Marshall (8-4) enters this game coming off a 34-27 win in overtime over Florida International as a 10-point underdog back on November 30th. Central Florida (9-3) comes off a 34-7 win over South Florida as a 24-point favorite on November 29th. This game is being played at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD PLUS THE POINTS: In head coach Doc Holliday we trust in bowl games — he has led Marshall to six straight bowl victories. The Thundering Herd has covered the point spread in 7 straight bowl games. This team is playing better defense to close out the season. Over their last three games, they have held their opponents to just 20.3 PPG along with only 335.0 total YPG which is over 27 YPG below their season average. Marshall has covered the point spread in 6 straight games when playing on a neutral field. Additionally, the Thundering Herd has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games as an underdog. And in their last 7 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range, Marshall has covered the point spread 6 times. Central Florida may have some difficulties getting motivated to play as a double-digit favorite with this bowl being played in their home state. They generated 539 yards of offense in their win against the Bulls with 307 of those yards coming in the air. But the Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Central Florida has averaged 493.3 total YPG over their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after averaging at least 450 YPG over their last three games. They are averaging 33.0 PPG over those last three contests as well which is -10 PPG below their season average. The Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after averaging 31 PPG in their last three games. This team has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three of their last four games. Additionally, UCF has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a neutral field as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as the favorite. This is the first non-New Year’s Six Bowl game that this will be playing in since 2016. Expect the Thundering Herd to keep this game closer than expected. 10* CFB Gasparilla Bowl ESPN Special with the Marshall Thundering Herd (219) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (480) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (479). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (10-4) has won four straight games with their 23-3 win over Denver last Sunday as a 10-point favorite. Chicago (7-7) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week in their 21-13 loss at Green Bay as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago was eliminated from the playoffs last week with that loss to the Packers along with Minnesota’s victory — so there is a question regarding their motivation tonight. However, the opportunity to play the role of the spoiler on national television with the weight of the pressure of the high expectations they entered the season with will likely be liberating for this group. The Bears outgained Green Bay last week by +123 net yards but a -3 net turnover margin spoiled their effort. Chicago suffered a -2 net turnover in their win against Dallas the previous week — and they have covered the point spread in 10 straight games at home after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover in two straight games. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has played better as of late — he has averaged 299 passing YPG over his last four games while averaging 2.0 touchdown passes per game. Trubisky is also being more aggressive with his legs in critical situations — he rushed for 29 yards last week. Chicago returns home where they are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 games — and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bears are also 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 36 home games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The Bears still have an elite level defense as they rank 3rd in the NFL by allowing only 18.1 PPG — and they rank 8th in the league by giving up just 324.8 total YPG. Chicago’s defense is even tougher at home where they are allowing just 17.1 PPG along with only 299.7 total YPG. Kansas City may be due for a letdown after covering the point spread in four straight games as well as six of their last eight games. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Kansas City has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning four of their last five games. Despite their four-game winning streak, the Chiefs are averaging only 341.3 total YPG which is over 40 YPG below their 384.4 total YPG season average. Kansas City will also be undermanned in their secondary tonight with cornerback Morris Claiborne out with a shoulder injury.

FINAL TAKE: It will be chilly in Chicago tonight with temperates dropping to the mid-30s — and the Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in December. 10* NFL Kansas City-Chicago NBC-TV Special with the Chicago Bears (480) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (217) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (218). THE SITUATION: UAB (9-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on the Conference USA Championship Game with their 49-7 loss at FAU as a 9-point underdog. Appalachian State (12-1) won the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game that day with their 45-38 win over UL-Lafayette at home as a 5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS PLUS THE POINTS: UAB probably played their worst game of the season in that loss to the Owls.  Look for head coach Bill Clark to have his team ready to respond with a strong effort tonight. The Blazers are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. UAB surrendered 585 yards in that game to FAU playing at home — but they have responded to then cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Blazers have been a strong defensive team this season as they rank 9th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 294.1 total YPG. UAB also only managed 223 yards on offense in that game — but they are 12-5-2 ATS in their last 19 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. The Blazers are also 23-9-2 ATS in their last 34 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. This is a team that has been riddled with injuries all season. The incumbent starting quarterback, Tyler Johnston III, has missed four games this season. But the two weeks of rest and preparation will help this team get closer to full strength which includes a healthy Johnston. Admittedly, UAB has benefitted from a soft schedule this season — but so has Appalachian State. Remember, the Mountaineers last loss was against a Georgia Southern team that just got upset this afternoon to a Liberty team which had generally considered to have played the weakest schedule in the nation. The analytics folks who crunch strength of schedule into their laptops before projecting their (albeit flawed) point spread projections tend to have Appalachian State as a -12 to -18.5 point favorite — so we are getting value from most of the projections that take seriously strength of schedule. This Mountaineers team was outgained in four of their victories this season — and they lost the first down battle by a whopping 106 to 63 margin in those four games. They forced three turnovers by the Ragin’ Cajuns in their win two weeks ago — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after securing at least three takeaways in their last game. These big favorites in bowl games have been known to not bring their A-Game when traveling — and who knows what the mental shape of this team is with head coach Eli Drinkwater leaving the program to take the Missouri job. Offensive line coach Shawn Clark has been named the new head coach — but this team has been susceptible to letdowns under much less dramatic situations than winning the Sun Belt Championship before seeing their head coach leave them. The Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning at least five games in a row. Appalachian State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning three in a row against conference rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Too many points to lay against an extremely well-coached team that has had a very captive audience since they embarrassed themselves on national television two weeks ago. While Appalachian State is the better team (and program), the divide is not as large as the point spread suggests. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the UAB Blazers (217) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (451) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (452). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Sunday with their 44-21 upset loss at Dallas as a 1-point favorite. San Francisco (11-3) has lost two of their last three games with their 29-22 upset loss at home to Atlanta as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles was embarrassed last week on the late window game on national television. They should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Rams have covered the point spread in 11 go their last 17 games after suffering an upset loss by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in all 3 of their games after being upset this season. They need to get the ball to running back Todd Gurley more after he only rushed the ball 11 times last week. While Gurley seems to have lost his lateral speed, the Los Angeles offense has been at its most effective when they remained committed to running the football to better set up their play-action passing for quarterback Jared Goff. After experiencing a midseason slump, Goff has averaged 333.7 passing YPG over his last three games while tossing two touchdown passes in each contest. The Rams’ improvement this week needs to be on the other side of the football after surrendering 475 yards to the Cowboys while falling behind by a 28-7 score at halftime. The Los Angeles defense has not allowed more than 20 points in ten games this season so they should respond with a strong effort. The Rams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Surprisingly, LA has been a better road team this season after having a significantly better at home last year. In their six true home games, the Rams are 3-3 while being outscored by -3.9 PPG and outgained by -13.4 net YPG. In their eight games away from the Los Angeles, the Rams are 5-3 with an average winning margin of +6.2 PPG while winning the yardage battle by +69.1 net YPG. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. San Francisco is also looking to rebound from an upset loss — but injuries on defense have changed the dynamic of this team. Losing linebacker Kwon Alexander took away the heart and soul of that unit — and that group has suffered a string of injuries ever since that late-October season-ending injury. The 49ers have allowed 25.9 PPG over their last seven games after limiting their first seven opponents to a mere 11 PPG. They have picked off only one pass over those last seven games and they have managed only three sacks over their last three games. San Fran has allowed 75 combined points over their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 61 games after allowing at least 25 points in two straight contests. The Niners have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. San Francisco stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range. Additionally, the 49ers are just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home games as the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games this season when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games against fellow NFC West foes — and they have a more important game on deck with Seattle next week that will likely determine the NFC West champion so they may be caught looking ahead. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against divisional opponents — and they will be motivated to avenge a 20-7 upset loss at home to the Niners back on October 13th as a 3-point favorite. The Rams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. 25* NFL Network Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Rams (451) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Liberty Flames (209) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles in the Cure Bowl. THE SITUATION: Liberty (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak on November 30th with their 49-28 win over New Mexico State as a 14.5-point favorite. Georgia Southern (7-5) has won two of their last three games as well as eight of their last ten contests with their 38-10 victory over Georgia State as a 6.5-point favorite on November 30th. The Cure Bowl game takes place on a neutral field in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FLAMES PLUS THE POINTS: Liberty generated 486 yards of offense against the Aggies to close out their regular season — and they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. These Flames are a high-scoring offense led by senior quarterback Stephen Calvert who threw for 26 touchdown passes while tossing just five interceptions. Calvert has a dynamic target in wide receiver Antonio Gandy-Golden who has 1333 receiving yards with nine touchdown receptions. Calvert leads an offense that is tied for 31st in the FBS by scoring 33.7 PPG while averaging 442.5 total YPG which is 34th in the nation. Calvert leads a passing attack that is 21st in the FBS by averaging 290.5 passing YPG. He should have success this afternoon against a suspect Eagles pass defense that allows their opponents to average 240.6 passing YPG which is 91st in the nation. This team is comfortable in getting into high scoring affairs. They have seen 82 and 77 combined points scored in their last two games — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after playing two straight games where at least 70 combined points were scored. Liberty has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. This team has a veteran head coach in Hugh Freeze who has dealt with adversity this season after contracting a staph infection that led to him coaching a handful of games from his bed. Look for this team to rally around their coach in this game. The knock-on this Flames team not affiliated with a conference is that they reached seven wins on one of the softest schedules in the nation. But also keep in mind that Liberty upset the same Buffalo team that easily defeated Charlotte in yesterday’s Bahamas Bowl — and Georgia Southern deploys a similar run-oriented style of offense. Being an independent also required the Flames to endure a difficult late-season four-game road trip that included trips to BYU and Virginia — so this is a battle-tested group. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games against non-conference opponents. Liberty has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games as an underdog. Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win over a Sun Belt Conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. And while the Eagles did not commit a turnover in their last victory over the Panthers, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after not committing a turnover in their last game. Georgia Southern has won four games decided by one scoring possession with two of those victories coming in overtime — so this team was a couple of bad breaks from bot even being bowl eligible. The Eagles were outgained by -43.0 net YPG overall this season — and they were outscored by -12.5 PPG in their six games away from home while being outgained by -124.5 net YPG in those contests. Georgia Southern deploys a spread triple offense that is effective in running the ball — but things are not as smooth if quarterback Shai Werts has to throw the football with the Eagles averaging just 72.8 passing YPG which is last in the FBS with Werts averaging below 11 passing attempts per game in his ten contests.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia Southern returned fourteen starters from last year’s 10-3 team that won the Camellia Bowl over Eastern Michigan by a 23-21 score. Their motivation to prepare for this bowl game may not be as high in these preceding weeks — and the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with at least two weeks of rest and preparation. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Game of the Year with the Liberty Flames (209) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles in the Cure Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Central Michigan Chippewas (207) plus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (208) in the New Mexico Bowl. THE SITUATION: Central Michigan (8-5) looks to bounce-back from being upset in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game to Miami (OH) by a 26-21 score despite being a 5.5-point favorite. San Diego State (9-3) looks to build off their 13-3 upset victory BYU as a 4-point underdog on November 30th. The New Mexico Bowl takes place in Albuquerque.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIPPEWAS PLUS THE POINTS: Central Michigan was upset by the Red Hawks despite outgaining them by +83 net yards in that game. The Chippewas limited Miami (OH) to just 272 total yards in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Central Michigan has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. This team is led by MAC Coach of the Year, Jim McElwain, who is very familiar with Rocky Long’s coached-teams at San Diego State after his tenure in the Mountain West Conference as the head coach at Colorado State. Long deploys a tricky 3-3-5 defense that McElwain has spent many hours dissecting even before this bowl matchup was announced. This team has steadily improved this season after suffering a 1-10 record last season. Former Tennessee quarterback Quentin Dormady has completed 71% of his passes over his last three games and will not shrink under the scrutiny of this game given his previous starting experience in SEC play. Over their last three games, the Chippewas are averaging 467.3 total YPG while outgaining their opponents by +120 net YPG. This team has a stout defense that ranked 20th in the nation by allowing only 115.1 rushing YPG — and they rank 38th in the nation in total defense by giving up one y351.7 total YPG. Central Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams outside the MAC. San Diego State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. And while the Aztecs surrendered 338 passing yards to the Cougars which is not a good sign for this game considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. San Diego State upset BYU despite being without their starting quarterback Ryan Agnew. While Agnew has recovered and will play in this game, he leads an anemic offense the did not score more than 20 points in five games this season. Don’t be surprised if Long uses this game to get his freshman QB Carson Baker more playing time after he started against BYU. This is an offense that is 119th in the nation by averaging just 19.0 PPG while also ranking 115th in the FBS by averaging only 329.3 total YPG. And over their last three games, the Aztecs are scoring only 13.3 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: San Diego State was embarrassed last season in their bowl game against Ohio which ended in a 27-0 loss. But the Aztecs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in December. Expect Central Michigan to keep this game close. 10* CFB New Mexico Bowl ESPN Special with the Central Michigan Chippewas (207) plus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (208). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (456) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (455). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (7-7) has won four straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 38-17 win at Detroit last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Houston (9-5) has won three of their last four games with their 24-21 upset win at Tennessee last week as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Texans may be due for an emotional letdown on this short week after pulling off that big upset victory that was critical for their AFC South title aspirations. But Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after pulling off an upset victory over an AFC South foe. Furthermore, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a narrow win by 3 points or less against a divisional rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. Houston was outgained by the Titans by -58 net yards after surrendering 432 total yards. Defense has been an issue for this team as they have allowed 27.0 PPG over their last three contests along with 423.7 total YPG which is -44.6 YPG worse than their season average that already ranked 28th in the league. This is not a good sign for this team as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. And while Houston has allowed their last two opponents to average 7.24 and 6.65 Yards-Per-Play, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 6 YPP. The Texans are unreliable as a favorite considering that they are being outgained in yardage overall this season. They are also being outscored and outgained on the road while being outscored and outgained in their last three contests despite winning two of those games. Seven of Houston’s victories this season have been decided by one scoring possession — and they have four net close wins decided by one possession. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when favored. They are also just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games in December. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after scoring at least 35 points in their last game. The Buccaneers are significantly undermanned at wide receiver for this game with both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out for this game. But in head coach Bruce Arians I trust when it comes to devising an offensive game plan with a week to prepare. Expect a creative use of tight ends and running backs in the passing game. The under-appreciated aspect of this Bucs team is the continuing improved play of their defense that ranks tops in the NFL by allowing only 73.3 rushing YPG under defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Over their last three games, Tampa Bay is allowing only 21.0 PPG along with just 282.0 total YPG. This solid play on defense helps explain why the Bucs are outgaining their opponents by +50.0 net YPG this season. Of course, Winston’s turnovers tend to ruin the good work this team does in the yardage battle — but the Texans have only had three takeaways over their last five games. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when getting no more than 7 points as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games in December. While quarterback Jameis Winston has not been in many games that had playoff implications, he does seem to relish the role of playing the spoiler. Expect a close game where Tampa Bay has a late chance to pull the upset. 10* NFL Houston-Tampa Bay NFL Network Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (456) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Kent State Golden Flashes (203) plus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (204) in the Frisco Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kent State (6-6) has won three games in a row with their 34-26 upset win at Eastern Michigan as a 4-point underdog on November 29th. Utah State (7-5) has won three of their last four games with their 38-25 win at New Mexico as a 12-point favorite on November 30th. This bowl will take place in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN FLASHES PLUS THE POINTS: Kent State became bowl-eligible by pulling upsets in their last three games of the season. The Golden Flashes upset Buffalo by a 30-27 score getting +6.5 points before stunning Ball State by a 41-38 score as a +3 point dog before their upset win against the Eagles to close out the regular season. Some may look at those results and expect this team to experience an emotional letdown after reaching the mountain of a bowl game. However, this is a team that continued to improve and develop during the regular season after facing a very difficult non-conference schedule that featured Wisconsin, Auburn, and Arizona State. At 32-years old, Sean Lewis is the youngest head coach in the FBS in his second-year with the program. The Golden Flashes have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. And while Kent State has covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. Over their last three games, the Golden Flashes are scoring 35.0 PPG while averaging 456.3 total YPG which is +7.6 PPG and +62.7 YPG above their season average. This team is led by an underrated junior quarterback in Dustin Crum who beat out a former Auburn transfer in Woody Barrett during fall practice. Crum threw 18 touchdown passes this season while tossing just two interceptions while completing 68.2% of his passes and averaging a robust 8.2 Yards-Per-Attempt. His 156.07 Passer Rating was tops in the Mid-American Conference. The dual-threat QB also led the team with 560 rushing yards entering this game. Crum’s offensive talent should keep Kent State competitive in this game. The Golden Flashes have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Kent State has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. This team has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games as a dog when facing a non-Power Five opponent. The Golden Flashes have rushed for 266 and 253 yards in each of their last two games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after rushing for at least 225 yards in two straight games. Kent State is 44th in the nation by averaging 181.3 rushing YPG — and they will be facing an Aggies defense that has been vulnerable against the run by allowing 197.8 rushing YPG which is 103rd in the FBS. Utah State has allowed 297 and 276 rushing yards in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 225 rushing yards in two straight games. Additionally, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against conference opponents. This is a team that appears to be a prime candidate to be taking this bowl game lightly. They are distracted after four players were busted for pot possession on Saturday including their junior quarterback Jordan Love. This program peaked last season with their 11-2 campaign that ended with a 52-13 win over North Texas in the New Mexico Bowl. That team averaged 48 PPG — but with only two starters back on offense and their offensive guru in head coach Matt Wells leaving the program for Temple, the scoring plummeted to just 28.3 PPG this season (68th in the nation). Love had an uninspiring 17:16 touchdown-to-interception ratio after boasting a 32:6 ratio last season — yet he is still bailing on his senior year to enter the NFL draft while the iron remains (relatively) hot. The Regression Gods were expected to visit this team this season — but even with former head coach Gary Andersen returning to the program, this team was outscored and outgained in yardage this season. Three net close victories by one scoring possession were essential in them becoming bowl eligible. The Aggies were outscored by -7.0 PPG when playing on the road while being outgained by -113.0 net YPG. Utah State was also outscored by -6.7 PPG over their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: Losing their All-American linebacker, David Woodward, midseason certainly did not help the development of the Aggies in Andersen’s return to the program. Utah State ranks 96th in the nation by allowing 431.4 total YPG. This is Kent State’s just third bowl game appearance in program history with this being their first bowl opportunity since 2012. They should be fired up — and their skill on offense should keep this game close. 10* CFB Frisco Bowl ESPN Special with the Kent State Golden Flashes (203) plus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (204). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Charlotte 49ers (202) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (201) in the Bahamas Bowl. THE SITUATION: Charlotte (7-5) has won five games in a row with their 38-22 win at Old Dominion to close out their regular season on November 30th as a 10.5-point favorite. Buffalo (7-5) has won their last two games as well as five of their last six contests with their 49-7 win over Bowling Green as a 28-point favorite back on November 29th. This game is being played in Nassau in the Bahamas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: Charlotte is a team that got significantly better as the season went on under first-year head coach Will Healy. After allowing at least 30 points in five of their first six games against FBS opponents, the 49ers did not allow more than 22 points in their final four games while holding both their last two opponents in Marshall and the Monarchs to below 5.0 Yards-Per-Play. Charlotte had nine starters back from a defense that ranked 22nd in the nation last year by holding their opponents to just 337.3 total YPG last season but it took that group some time to adapt to the new 4-2-5 scheme implemented by defensive coordinators Brandon Cooper and Marcus West. The extra defensive back helped as the 49ers limited their opponents to just 198.3 passing YPG which was 23rd in the nation. Slowing down the run will be critical against the Bulls but this was a group that was 9th in the FBS two seasons ago by allowing just 105.7 rushing YPG so don’t be surprised if they deploy some of their familiar 5-2-4 looks that they used two years ago with three returning starters on that defensive line. Healy’s bigger assignment in his first season was improving an offense that scored just 21.7 PPG (tied for 113th in the FBS) last season. Mission accomplished: Charlotte raised that mark 31.6 PPG this season which was tied for 41st best. The offense is led by senior running back Benny LeMay who led a ground attack that averaged 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry while ranking 24th in the nation by averaging 213.3 rushing YPG. LeMay missed two games midseason but came back to put together back-to-back 100 yard plus rushing games to end the regular season. The improvement in the offense can be traced to the improved play of sophomore quarterback Chris Reynolds who completed 62.2% of his passes while throwing 21 touchdown passes to 10 interceptions while adding 757 rushing yards with 6 rushing touchdowns. Over Reynolds' last five games, he threw 9 TD passes with two games where he passed for 336 and 354 yards while adding a minimum of 94 rushing yards in each contest. Over their last three games, the 49ers outscored their opponents by +12.3 PPG while outgaining them by +122.3 net YPG. Charlotte has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win over a Conference USA rival. They also have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. And in their last 12 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points, the 49ers have covered the point spread 8 times. Buffalo may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point sped in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory by at least four touchdowns. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Bulls were an impressive 6-1 at home this season — but they were only 2-4 away from home while being outscored by -2.8 PPG in those games. The weakness of this team is when they have to rely on their passing attack. Sophomore Kyle Vantrease did not win the starting quarterback job out of camp but took over after the season-ending injury to redshirt freshman Matt Myers. Vantrease averaged only 155 passing YPG in his seven starters. More telling, while Buffalo averaged just 18.7 passing attempts per game in their seven wins, that number rose to 26 passing attempts per game in their five losses — so the ability of the 49ers to slow down their rushing attack looks critical. The Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams outside the Mid-American Conference — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games played on a neutral field. Buffalo has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when getting at least two weeks to prepare.

FINAL TAKE: This is Buffalo’s first back-to-back bowl appearance in program history after playing and losing in last year’s Dollar General Bowl to Troy by a 42-32 score after blowing a 4th quarter lead. Buffalo is looking to win their first bowl game in their fourth try this afternoon. This will be the first bowl game for Charlotte in just their fifth year in the FBS — and the players will be excited to trigger the strobe light post-victory ritual that has been implemented by Healy. The first five Bahamas Bowls have all been decided by 4 points or less — expect another close game in the sixth incarnation of this bowl game. 20* CFB Bahamas Bowl ESPN Special with the Charlotte 49ers (202) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (201). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (333) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (334). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-7) has lost three straight games with their 38-35 loss at Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. New Orleans (10-3) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 48-46 upset loss at home to San Francisco as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Saints may have a hard time recovering from the physical and emotionally draining experience of that showdown with the 49ers last week — and facing another physical team with this Indianapolis team will be a tough test. As it is, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games coming off a loss at home in their last game. And while the Saints have won nine of their last eleven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight home games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. Injuries are beginning to play a bigger role with this team. Not only is the offensive line banged up, but now they have lost defensive linemen Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins may be out for the rest of the season. The Saints stay at home where they are 5-2 in the Superdome but they are only outscoring their visitors by +2.5 net PPG. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when laying 7.5 to 10 points. The Saints have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in December. Indianapolis will be playing with desperation tonight to keep their playoff hopes alive — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. The Colts have allowed 69 combined points over their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 25 points in two straight games. Indianapolis is also 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The encouraging aspect of this team is they are finding success on offense despite being without wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (who is not likely to play tonight). Getting Marlon Mack at running back last week helped — and the Colts are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Indianapolis stays on the road where they are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 appearances on Monday Night Football. Look for Indianapolis to keep this game closer than expected. 10* NFL Indianapolis-New Orleans ESPN Special with the Indianapolis Colts (333) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (334). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (321) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (322). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (9-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 24-17 loss at home to Baltimore as a 6.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (8-5) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last eight games with their 23-17 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Buffalo should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss. And while the Bills could only manage 209 yards of offense against the tough Ravens’ defense, they are then 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Buffalo has a team that is built to play well on the road with their strong defense and good running game. The Bills are 2nd in the NFL by allowing just 16.3 PPG — and they rank 3rd in the league by holding their opponents to just 296.3 total YPG. Buffalo is also 5th in the NFL by averaging 135.3 rushing YPG. Buffalo is 5-1 on the road this season while outscoring their home hosts by +7.8 PPG. The Bills are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Buffalo has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Buffalo has has six games decided by one scoring possession this season — they are 3-3 in those games. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has had nine games decided by one scoring possession where they have won six of those contests — so a double bad breaks going the other way and this could be a 6-7 football team. The Steelers are being outgained by -20.8 net YPG. Pittsburgh is getting it done despite having an anemic offense. Since Week 10, the Steelers are scoring only 16.6 PPG which is tied for 28th in the league during that span while averaging a mere 289.0 total YPG which is also 28th in the NFL. Even worse, Pittsburgh has turned the ball over 10 times since Week 10 which is tied for fourth worst during that span and their quarterbacks have a Passer Rating of just 74.5 in those games which is 29th. Rookie QB Devlin Hodges has been a gamer for this team — he completed 16 of 19 passes last week for 152 yards. But as the game tape grows on him, good defenses will begin to devise more specific game plans. Bills’ head coach Sean McDermott is one of the brightest defensive minds in the business — they held the juggernaut Baltimore offense led by likely league MVP Lamar Jackson to just 257 total yards last week. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a win by 6 points or less. And while Pittsburgh has responded from an 0-3 start with eight wins in their last ten games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning eight of their last ten contests. Furthermore, they managed only 135 net passing yards last week — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to pass for at least 150 net yards. The Steelers do expect to get running back James Conner back for this game but wide receiver Juju Smith-Schuster has been downgraded to doubtful as he continues in the concussion protocol.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played five straight Unders with them winning five of their last six games decided by one scoring possession. Look for the Steelers good fortunes to run out tonight. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the Buffalo Bills (321) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (330) plus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (329). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-7) has lost three straight games after their 31-24 upset loss at Chicago back on December 5th where they were 3-point favorites. Los Angeles (8-5) has won two straight games as well as five of their last seven with their 28-12 win over Seattle as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas is being given zero respect by many bettors right now with the oddsmakers installing them as a 3-point favorite before bet down to a home underdog against this hot Rams team. Look for the Cowboys to respond with an inspired effort. Dallas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after dropping three of their last four contests. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. And Dallas should benefit from the extra days off since playing that Thursday night game as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing on a Thursday night. The Cowboys did out gain the Bears by +26 net yards in that loss. In fact, Dallas has outgained each of their last nine opponents — and only New Orleans has won the yardage battle against them all season (by just 9 yards)! Perhaps the talent on this roster has been overrated — but the coaching and special teams on both sides of the ball in key circumstances have also let this team down. Despite losing their last three games, the Cowboys have outgained those opponents by +45.0 net YPG. This character certainly makes Dallas unreliable when laying points — but the flip side is that they do offer value as an underdog (especially if they will come close to winning the yardage battle). Not surprisingly then, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 38 home games as a dog getting up to 7 points. Look for Dallas to get their rushing attack going after they managed only 82 rushing yards on just 22 carries against the Bears. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards. While the Rams’ defense has been outstanding this season, they are only middling against the run by allowing 104.3 rushing YPG which is 12th in the league. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 contests after covering the point spread in three of their last four. Quarterback Jared Goff has played better as of late by leading his offense to average 303 passing YPG over their last three games — but the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after averaging at least 275 passing YPG over their last three contests. And while Los Angeles has averaged 502 total YPG in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after averaging at least 500 YPG in their last two contests. Furthermore, the Rams have only allowed 19 combined points over their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas will have the extra motivation to avenge last year’s loss in the playoffs in Los Angeles by a 30-22 score. The Cowboys host this rematch where despite being just 3-3 this season they are outscoring their guests by +7.5 PPG and outgaining them by +118.5 YPG. 10* NFL LA Rams-Dallas Fox-TV Special with the Dallas Cowboys (330) plus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (329). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (313) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (314). THE SITUATION: Houston (8-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week at home against Denver in an embarrassing 38-24 loss despite being an 8-point underdog. Tennessee (8-5) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 42-21 win at Oakland as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS PLUS THE POINTS: Houston should respond with a strong effort this afternoon — they have not lost two straight games in their last twenty-seven contests. The Texans have been consistently reliable this season coming off a loss this season. They have won all four of their games after a defeat so far this season while averaging 28.3 PPG along with 409.8 total YPG fueled by a ground game that has averaged 130.3 rushing YPG in those contests. Houston has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 ames after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss as a favorite laying at least 6 points. Additionally, the Texans are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread loss. And Houston has covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after playing a game on their home field. The Texans did end up outgaining the Broncos by 23 net yards but could not dig themselves out of the hole from their 31-3 halftime deficit. Houston has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Tennessee has been one of the hottest teams in the league since Ryan Tannehill has taken over as the starting quarterback — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning at least three games in a row. The Titans have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Furthermore, Tennessee is just 16-36-1 ATS in their last 51 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Tannehill was spectacular against the porous Raiders’ defense as he completed 21 of 27 passes for 391 yards while leading an offense that generated 552 total yards. But the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 350 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 500 yards in their last game. But a concern for this team is their defense after they allowed Oakland to gain 355 yards. Tennessee is just 19th in the NFL this season by allowing 361.5 total YPG — and they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Opponents have found success in the passing game against this Titans defense that allows 259.9 passing YPG which is 25th in the NFL — and their secondary is banged up entering this game. Tennessee is also being outgained at home by -44.9 net YPG when playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans are just 16-33-1 ATS in their last 50 games against fellow AFC South opponents — and they are just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games against the Texans. And wide receiver Will Fuller is expected to play again for the Texans — and they have won eleven of their last fourteen games with a healthy fuller complement wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Expect a close game where Houston will be in a position to pull the upset. 25* AFC South Underdog of the Year with the Houston Texans (313) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (303) plus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (304). THE SITUATION: Army (5-7) saw their two-game winning streak snapped back in their last game back on November 30th in their 52-31 loss at Hawai’i as a 2.5-point underdog. Navy (9-2) has won two straight games after their 56-41 win at Houston as a 9-point favorite back on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field in Philadelphia’s Lincoln Financial Field.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Army outgained Hawai’i by +46 net yards but managed to lose the game — although allowing a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown reversed what could have been a 45-38 score late in the 4th quarter. The Black Knights did rush for 411 yards in that game —and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games away from home after rushing for at least 275 rushing yards in their last contest. This Army team has improved on offense as the season has continued — they have generated at least 500 yards of offense in three straight games while averaging 47.0 PPG along with 575.2 total YPG in those games. But the Black Knights need to play better on defense after surrendering 492 yards to the Rainbow Warriors. Army has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 50 points in their last game. The Black Knights do have a good defense that allows only 22.3 PPG and just 337.8 total YPG which ranks 34th and 29th best in the nation. This was a disappointing season for an Army team that returned eleven starters from last year’s group that finished 11-2 after winning their final nine games. Monken has made this program into a juggernaut as they had won 29 games in their previous three seasons. The Black Knights endured four close losses decided by one scoring possession including a double-overtime loss at Michigan. But a victory over Navy offers this team an opportunity to salvage their season. Army is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games in December. The Black Knights are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on a neutral field as an underdog. Navy enjoyed a +5 net turnover margin against the Cougars but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after having at least a +3 net turnover margin in their last game. And while the Midshipmen have played five straight games where at least 66 combined points were scored, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing at least four straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored. Navy is also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a bye week. The Midshipmen have slipped on defense to close out this season — they have allowed 40.3 PPG along with 427.0 total YPG over their last three contests. Navy has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the American Athletic Conference. Additionally, the Midshipmen are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Army has won the last three meetings between these two teams — and the seniors will be motivated to graduate with an undefeated record against the Midshipmen. Navy will be very motivated to end their losing streak to the Black Knights — but this should be a close game with Army having covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog. Together, these team trends produce our specific 58-17-4 ATS combined angle for this situation. 10* CFB Army-Navy CBS-TV Special with the Army Black Knights (303) plus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (502) minus the points versus the New York Jets (501). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (11-2) has won nine straight games after their 24-17 win at Buffalo last Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite. New York (5-8) has won four of their last five games with their 22-21 win at home against Miami last week as a 5-point favorite.

THE SITUATION: In theory, I don’t love laying all these points in an NFL game. However, in practice, NFL teams laying at least 14 points are 20-13 ATS in these last 33 situations since the start of the 2017-18 season with favorites laying at least two touchdowns this season being 6-3 ATS. This is the first favorite laying at least 14 points since Week 8 when Minnesota was laying around -16.5 points for a Thursday night game against Washington. We took the underdog Skins that night in the Vikings’ 19-9 victory — but I am taking the chalk in this game under these different circumstances. The Jets are a M*A*S*H unit with a whopping fifteen players on Injured Reserve or otherwise out for the rest of the season. Those missing players do not include safety Jamal Adams cornerback Brian Poole, defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, and tack Chuma Edoga who are four more starters declared out or doubtful for this game. This is bad news for a team that is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. The Jets now go back on the road where they are just 1-5 while scoring just 15.5 PPG and averaging a mere 239.7 total YPG. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Jets are 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 road games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a double-digit underdog. And New York is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December. The Baltimore defense ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing just 18.2 PPG and 6th in the league by limiting their opponents to only 314.6 total YPG. The Ravens have also held their last three opponents to just 13.3 PPG along with only 253.7 total YPG. Baltimore’s defense starts with their outstanding secondary that might have become the best unit in the league with the midseason trade of cornerback Marcus Peters. Not only do strong cover skills help the pass rush, but it also gives defensive coordinator Wink Martindale the freedom to take more chances with the blitz. The Ravens lead the NFL by blitzing on 54.5% of the time — and now they face Sam “I see ghosts” Darnold tonight. In that Monday night game against the Patriots on October 21st when Darnold was caught on mic admitting he was seeing “ghosts” in the backfield against the Patriots blitz, he completed just 8 of 16 passes for only 66 yards with no touchdown passes and three interceptions when facing a blitz. For the season, Darnold ranks 30th of 32 quarterbacks with a 48.2 Passer Rating when facing the blitz. Defense is consistent on a week-to-week basis — and so are strong rushing attacks which is what this Baltimore team possesses behind Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram as they lead the NFL by averaging 200.8 rushing YPG. Perhaps this is why the Ravens have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Baltimore returns home where they are 5-1 this season with an average winning margin of +8.5 PPG. This team is also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games under head coach John Harbaugh when playing on a Thursday night.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning at least seven games in a row. And while Baltimore has covered the point spread in six of their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. 10* NFL NY Jets-Baltimore Fox-TV Special with the Baltimore Ravens (502) minus the points versus the New York Jets (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (159) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (160). THE SITUATION: New York (2-10) has lost eight games in a row with their 31-13 loss at home to Green Bay last week as a 6.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (5-7) has lost three games in a row after their embarrassing 37-31 upset loss at Miami last week as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Giants have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Eli Manning will be back under center for this game with rookie Daniel Jones out with an ankle injury. I expect Manning to be solid tonight and careful with the football after not playing for most of the year. The Giants have been a reliable road team relative to point spread expectations. New York has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games as an underdog. The Giants’ defense has also played better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 317.0 total YPG. The Giants are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. The Eagles surrendered 409 yards of offense to the Dolphins last week but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Philadelphia did gain 386 yards in the loss — but they have then failed to cover the point spread 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Eagles are limited in what they can accomplish on offense with DeSean Jackson on Injured Reserve with his abdominal injury. They lack a credible vertical threat without Jackson which allows opposing defenses to cheat their strong safety into the box. Philadelphia is scoring just 16.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 328.3 total YPG. The Eagles return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles will probably win this game — but the Giants should revel in the opportunity to play the role of spoiler. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL NY Giants-Philadelphia ESPN Special with the New York Giants (159) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (160). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (157) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (158). THE SITUATION: Seattle (10-2) has won five games in a row with their 37-30 win over Minnesota as a 3-point favorite for Monday Night Football. Los Angeles (7-5) has won two of their last three games after their 34-7 win at Arizona last Sunday as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The Rams bounced-back from their embarrassing 45-6 loss at home to Baltimore by crushing the Cardinals — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in their last game. Arizona has the worst defense in the NFL by allowing 426.3 total YPG — and they have surrendered 482.7 total YPG over their last three games in what are Texas Tech-like numbers for rookie head coach Kliff Kingbury so I am not ready to read too much into the Rams’ offense after that effort. Remember, the Rams had averaged 10.7 PPG in their previous three games before that date while averaging a mere 270 YPG in those contests. So while QB Jared Goff completed 32 of 43 passes for 424 yards, it is telling that LA is then 13-27-2 ATS in their last 42 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Rams return home where they are scoring just 19.4 PPG while averaging just 313.4 total YPG. Los Angeles is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Seattle has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after a home game where both teams scored at least 24 points including seven of these last nine situations. The Seahawks got it going with their ground game as they outrushed the Vikings by +140 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least 75 yards. Seattle is a perfect 6-0 on the road where they are outscoring their home hosts by +6.8 net PPG. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they are 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 8 straight road games with the Total set in the 45 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams will be looking to avenge a 30-29 loss in Seattle back on October 3rd — but they have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 40 of their last 58 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 10* NFL Seattle-LA Rams NBC-TV Special with the Seattle Seahawks (157) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (158). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (156) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (155). THE SITUATION: Oakland (6-6) has lost two straight games after their 40-9 loss at Kansas City last week as an 11-point underdog. Tennessee (7-5) has won three games in a row with their 31-17 win at Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Oakland has been outscored by a humiliating 74 to 12 margin over their last two games with trips to coach weather New York against the Jets before their trip to a chilly Kansas City last week. Perhaps the playoff talk for this team was premature — but this is still a hardworking and well-coached team. They should rebound with a stronger effort today as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. They did outgain the Chiefs last week by +73 net yards so that final score was much worse than the reality on the ground where a Kansas City interception return for a touchdown along with some big plays on offense made the difference. Now Oakland returns home to the Coliseum where they are 4-1 this season to begin a final two-game homestand before moving to Las Vegas next season. The Raiders have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home. Oakland has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games as the underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games when getting 3 points or less. Tennessee has won five of their last six games behind quarterback Ryan Tannehill who has jumpstarted the offense — but this team looks primed for an emotional letdown after defeating an AFC South rival on the road. The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They only gained 292 yards of offense last week against the Colts in a game where they were outgained by -99 net yards — and they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. They are also 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Now this team goes back on the road for just the third time in their last seven contests after playing four of their last six games in Nashville. UPDATE: Runnin back Josh Jacobs has been declared inactive for this game with his shoulder that now looks like he re-injured last week. He has been dealing with a shoulder injury for weeks that has not stopped him from playing. While disappointing, the Raiders remain a 25* play — Oakland has serviceable replacement level players at running back while this is a bounce-back situation for QB Derek Carr (and the Raiders defense) playing back at home after two bad games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee is being outgained on the road by -20.0 YPG — and they are just 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 road games as the favorite. 25* AFC Underdog of the Year on the Oakland Raiders (156) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (147) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (148). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-6) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests after their 31-17 loss to Tennessee last week as a 1-point underdog. Tampa Bay (5-7) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 28-11 win in Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis is just ravaged with injuries on offense with wide receiver T.Y. Hilton along with tight end Eric Ebron and running back Marlon Mack all on the shelf with injuries. There is no question that the Colts are limited with their skill position players to help out quarterback Jacoby Brissett. But even with those limitations last week, Brissett still completed 25 of 40 passes for 319 yards while leading an offense that generated 391 yards against the Titans defense. Indianapolis outgained Tennessee by +99 net yards. Look for head coach Frank Reich to inspire a big effort from his team to stop this losing streak in this winnable game. The Titans have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games. The Colts are also 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games against teams with a losing record at home — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 4 road games as an underdog. Tampa Bay has been consistently inconsistent this season as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 18 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Now this team returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games. The Buccaneers are very unreliable when laying the points as well. Not only has Tampa Bay failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as the favorite but they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 home games when laying the points.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers won the turnover battle against the Jaguars last week with a +3 net turnover margin — but that was the first time they had more takeaways than giveaways in seven games. Tampa Bay has turned the ball over 28 times this season for an ugly 2.3 turnovers per game margin with Jameis Winston throwing 20 interceptions this season. That Indy loss last week was their first loss this season decided more than 6 points. 20* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Indianapolis Colts (147) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (141) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (142). THE SITUATION: Carolina (5-7) has lost four games in a row with their 29-21 upset loss to Washington as a 10.5-point favorite last week. Atlanta (3-9) has lost two in a row with their 26-18 loss at home to New Orleans on Thanksgiving as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Carolina fired their long-time head coach, Ron Rivera, this week in this lost season. Perry Fewell takes over as the interim head coach in a role he also served on an interim basis in Buffalo back in 2009. Scott Turner has also been elevated to the interim offensive coordinator with his father, Norv, installed as an assistant to the head coach. Now the everyone’s job on the line, look for an inspired effort from this Panthers’ team today — and they also will have an element of surprise with the changes that will come from the assistant coaching staff changes. Carolina has bounced back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while the Panthers surrendered 362 yards to the Skins last week, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Carolina has been a solid road team this season — they are 3-3 on the road while averaging a healthy 25.2 PPG. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, while Carolina has only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 37 of their last 56 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. The Falcons are playing for next year with an offensive line that was not fixed in the offseason (albeit, injuries did not help). Atlanta has allowed 40 sacks this season after the Saints dropped Matt Ryan nine times last week. The Falcons are just 1-5 at home this season where they are scoring only 17.3 PPG while being outgained by -10.9 PPG. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as the favorite. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Atlanta has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina will also be motivated to avenge an ugly 29-3 upset loss at home to the Falcons as a 4.5-point favorite. The Panthers have covered the point spread in a decisive 39 of their last 54 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 25* NFC South Underdog of the Year with the Carolina Panthers (141) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (119) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (120). THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (10-2) has won four straight games after their 38-17 win over Minnesota as a 3-point favorite. Ohio State (12-0) defeated Michigan in Ann Arbor last Saturday by a 56-27 score as an 8.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field in Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Wisconsin played the Buckeyes close for 35 minutes in the first meeting between these two teams before they game got out of control late in a 38-7 loss on October 26th. Ohio State had just a 10-7 lead in the 3rd quarter of that game. The Badgers’ physical style of defense and running the football has helped them go 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games in the Big Ten Championship or a bowl game as an underdog with Wisconsin pulling the upset five times. The Badgers has scored at least 37 points in each of their last three games — and they are tough to handle when they get their offense going. Wisconsin has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 37 points in three straight games. They generated 453 yards in their win against the Golden Gophers — and they are 23-10-1 ATS in their last 34 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Additionally, the Badgers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. And while Wisconsin has only covered the point spread twice in their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 34 of their last 48 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Ohio State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after winning at least five games in a row. They dominated the Wolverines last week with 28 first downs while controlling the clock for 36:25 minutes — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after holding the ball for at least 34 minutes and gaining at least 24 first downs in their last game. The Buckeyes did show some vulnerability in that game as they surrendered 305 passing yards to the Michigan offense — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 280 passing  yards in their last game. Quarterback Justin Fields did not leave that game 100% either with a knee injury which may limit his mobility tonight.

FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin has covered the point spread in 8 straight games on the road when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. With superstar running back Jonathan Taylor, the Badgers have the ability to control the clock to stay competitive with the Buckeyes. 10* CFB Wisconsin-Ohio State Fox-TV Special with the Wisconsin Badgers (119) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (120). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (117) plus the points versus LSU Tigers (118). THE SITUATION: Georgia (11-1) has won six straight games with their 52-7 win over Georgia Tech last week as a 28.5-point favorite. LSU (12-0) remained undefeated this season with their 50-7 win over Texas A&M last week as a 17.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Bulldogs’ biggest question mark is with their skill players on offense. Wide receiver Lawrence Cager is out the season with an ankle injury and wide receiver George Perkins will miss the first half in this game to serve out a suspension. Furthermore, running back D’Andre Swift is dealing with a shoulder injury but it looks like he will be able to play in this game. Georgia did generate 500 yards against the Yellow Jackets — and they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Bulldogs have a veteran quarterback in Jake Fromm who has the experience of a National Championship Game as well as two prior SEC Championship Games. But is the Georgia defense that should keep them in this game. They rank 2nd in the nation by allowing just 10.4 PPG — and they rank 4th in the FBS by limiting their opponents to only 257.0 total YPG. The Bulldogs also may very well have the best special teams unit in the nation. This combination of elite defense and special teams has helped Georgia cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games against conference opponents. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 9 games played on a neutral field, Georgia has covered the point spread in 8 of these contests. LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. And while the Tigers held the football for 34:38 minutes against the Aggies while generating 31 first downs, LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 24 first downs while controlling the clock for at least 34 minutes in their last game. The Tigers also gained 553 yards in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Remember that while LSU has been explosive on offense often this season, they narrowly got by Auburn by a 23-20 score — and the Tigers are a defense-first run team like the Bulldogs. LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia is a dangerous underdog that has covered the point spread in 5 straight games when getting the points since 2016 with them pulling the outright upset three times. 25* CFB Power-Five Conference Championship Game of the Year is with the Georgia Bulldogs (117) plus the points versus LSU Tigers (118). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (115) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (116). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (9-4) has won four straight games with their 52-31 win over Army last week as a 2.5-point favorite. Boise State (11-1) has won five straight games after they defeated Colorado State on the road by a 31-24 score as a 13.5-point favorite. The Broncos earned the right to host this Mountain West Conference Championship Game with their better record.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Don’t be scared off going against home teams in conference championship games. Home teams are now just 18-20 ATS in the thirty-right times that one has hosted a conference championship contest. Only one home team covered the point spread last year in the Conference Championship games (Central Florida) with the three other home teams failing to cover the point spread with Middle Tennessee and this Boise State team losing outright despite being a home favorite. The Broncos are not a reliable big favorite as they have failed to covert point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when laying 10.5 to 21 points. Boise State has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when laying 10.5 to 14 points. With freshman quarterback Hank Bachmeier still recovering from his shoulder injury, 5th year senior quarterback Jaylon Henderson will make his fourth straight start for this team. The Broncos are averaging 43 PPG in his three starts with the 31 points they put up last week being their lowest number — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 31 points in two straight games. Boise State was outgained by 35 yards last week by a mediocre Rams team that then let their head coach go. The Broncos surrendered 289 passing yards with Colorado State averaging 6.32 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last contest. This leaky pass defense presents a scary proposition when facing the Rainbow Warriors’ junior quarterback Cole McDonald that leads an offense that is 6th in the nation by averaging 332.5 passing YPG. It will be a chilly night in Boise with temperatures in the 40s — but I watched McDonald complete 31 of 36 passes for 373 yards on a cold night in Reno earlier this season against Nevada. Hawai’i has four receivers with at least 50 catches. I was also impressed with the Rainbow Warriors’ ability to move the football against a strong Army defense in what was a lame-duck game for them with this MWC Championship Game already clinched. Hawai’i gained 492 yards against the Black Knights while only having the ball for 24:40 minutes in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. The Rainbow Warriors did surrender 411 rushing yards to Army’s spread triple option — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 375 rushing yards in their last game. The Hawai’i defense has improved — they held their last two conference opponents in UNLV and San Diego State to just 18 combined points along with only 4 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. The Rainbow Warriors have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road with the Total set at 63 to 70 including covering the point all three times in that situation this season.

FINAL TAKE: Boise State won the first meeting between these two teams at home by a 59-37 score back on October 12th. But Hawai’i has covered the point spread in their last 5 opportunities to exact same-season revenge. The Broncos may be taking the Rainbow Warriors lightly while dreaming of the Cotton Bowl as the Group of Five representative in the New Year’s Six bowls — but this team has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in December. Hawai’i is a very dangerous underdog giving the potency of their offensive attack. 25* CFB Underdog of the Year with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (115) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (116). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (114) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (113). THE SITUATION: Memphis (11-1) has won six straight games with their 34-24 win over Cincinnati last week as a 13.5-point favorite. The Tigers get to stay at home for this immediate rematch for the American Athletic Conference Championship Game.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Bearcats may have held back some of their tricks last week with their spot in this game already clinched. Quarterback Desmond Ridder did not play last week with his shoulder injury but Cincinnati got better play in the passing game with freshman Ben Bryant completing 20 of 32 passes for 229 yards. Ridder will be back under center for this game but he has just a 64.6 Passer Ratlin in his last two games against South Florida and Temple. Despite their 10-2 record, the Bearcats only outgained their opponents by +8.5 net YPG. They won all four of their close games decided by one scoring possession. Cincinnati also struggled on the road where they were outgained by -55.3 net YPG. The Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 games in December, Cincinnati is just 0-5-1 ATS. Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They get to stay at home where they have lost only once since the 2017 season. The Tigers are a perfect 6-0 at home this year with an average winning margin of +15.7 PPG. Memphis has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home. They also have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has lost the last two American Athletic Conference Championship Games to Central Florida — so this should be a very determined team to finally climb the hump to with a conference title. 10* CFB Cincinnati-Memphis ABC-TV Special with the Memphis Tigers (114) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Atlantic Owls (112) minus the points versus the UAB Blazers (111). THE SITUATION: FAU (9-3) has won five straight games with their 34-17 win over Southern Mississippi last week as a 9-point favorite. UAB (9-3) has won three straight games with their 26-21 win at North Texas last week as a 3.5-point favorite. The Owls host this Conference USA Championship Game.

REASONS TO TAKE FAU MINUS THE POINTS: The Owls have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after a win by at least 17 points. And while FAU has scored at least 31 points in six straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 31 points in three straight games. This team has steadily improved under head coach Lane Kiffin. They have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after the first month of the season. In Kiffin’s two teams that were bowl eligible at FAU, they are 18-6-1 ATS in those 25 games with an average winning margin of +24.1 PPG. The Owls have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 home games when laying 7.5 to14 points, FAU has covered the point spread in 5 of these games. UAB has played one of the softest schedules in the nation this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They have won their last two games by 6 points or less — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning two straight games by 6 points or less. And while the Blazers are outgaining their opponents by +161 YPG at home, they are only outgaining their opponents on the road by +27 YPG while being outscored by -5.0 PPG. UAB has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7games on the road as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Blazers have been outscored by -21.7 PPG against the three teams they have faced that are bowl eligible. They also got crushed by a 37-2 score to the Southern Miss team that FAU just clobbered. 20* CFB UAB-FAU CBS Sports Network Special with the Florida Atlantic Owls (112) minus the points versus the UAB Blazers (111). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (109) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (110). THE SITUATION: Baylor (11-1) has won their last two games with their 61-6 win over Kansas last week as a 14-point favorite. Oklahoma (11-1) has won four in a row with their 34-16 win at Oklahoma State as a 14-point favorite last Saturday. The Big 12 Championship Game is being played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. With Utah’s loss last night, Oklahoma may be in the driver’s seat to earn the fourth and final spot in the College Football Playoff with a victory in this game. But with high expectations comes more pressure as the Utes found out last night. This Sooners team has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They have benefited from three net close victories decided by one scoring possession. Oklahoma has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of 9 games against Big 12 opponents this season. And in their last 13 games played on a neutral field as the favorite, the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread 10 times. Baylor has picked themselves up off the mat after blowing a 28-3 lead against the Sooners in their 34-31 loss at home back on November 16th. The Bears have outscored their Kansas and Texas by a combined 69 points. Baylor generated 507 yards against the Jayhawks — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games in December. Baylor has also covered the point spread in 23 of the last 32 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog when playing on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: Baylor head coach Matt Rhule thrives when preparing his team in the role of the underdog. In his coaching career going back to his time at Temple, Rhule’s teams are 33-14 ATS with sixteen upset victories. Rhule’s Baylor teams have covered the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog with five upset victories included. 10* CFB Baylor-Oklahoma ABC-TV Special with the Baylor Bears (109) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (107) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (108). THE SITUATION: Lafayette (10-2) has won six straight games with their 31-30 win over UL-Monroe as a 20.5-point favorite last week. Appalachian State (11-1) has won four straight games after their 48-13 win at Troy last week as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINTS: Lafayette has raised their level of play after losing to the Mountaineers by a 17-7 score back on October 19th. They have scored at least 31 points in each of their last six games with an average winning score of 40-15. The Ragin’ Cajuns should enter this game with confidence — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. Lafayette has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. And while they gained 522 yards last week to the Warhawks, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. The Ragin’ Cajuns have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning three straight games in conference play — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games at home after playing two straight Sun Belt foes. The Mountaineers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points. And while they dominated the Trojans last week by holding the ball for 34:30 minutes while generating 27 first downs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after playing a game where they held the ball for at least 34 minutes while gaining at least 24 first downs. Appalachian State hosts this Sun Belt Championship Game but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games when laying up to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Mountaineers may be in line to earn the Group of Five bid to a New Year’s Six bowl — and they may get caught looking ahead when hosting a team that they have defeated by double-digits in their last three meetings including last year’s Sun Belt Championship Game by a 30-18 score. But Lafayette head coach Billy Napier has led his teams to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and his teams have pulled the upset in three of their last four games as a dog getting less than 7 points. 20* CFB Lafayette-Appalachian State ESPN Special with the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (107) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (103) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (104). THE SITUATION: Oregon (10-2) reached the Pac-12 Championship Game with their 24-10 win over Oregon State last Saturday as a 20.5-point favorite. Utah (11-1) joined them with their 45-15 win over Colorado as a 27.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at Levi Stadium in Santa Clara.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: Oregon has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. And while the Ducks went into halftime with a 17-3 lead over the Beavers last week, they have then covered the point spread in a decisive 44 of their last 58 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. The Oregon defense should keep the Ducks in a close game tonight. First-year defensive coordinator Andy Avalos has done a fantastic job with a unit that returned seven starters from last year’s squad. Oregon ranks 10th in the nation by allowing just 15.8 PPG. It starts up from for the Ducks with nose guard Jordan Scott who leads a defensive line that holds their opponents to only 106.1 rushing YPG which is 10th in the nation. This stout run defense forces opponents to pass — and Oregon has picked off 17 passes this season. The Utes’ senior quarterback Tyler Huntley will be challenged by the toughest defense that he has faced all season in this Ducks’ unit. Huntley completed 14 of 17 passes last week against the Buffaloes for 165 passing yards — but Utah has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not passing for more than 170 yards in their last contest. The Utes are a senior-laden squad that will be looking to redeem themselves from losing to Washington by a 10-3 score in last year’s Pac-12 Championship Game. But this group is also facing the pressure of needing this win to keep their College Football Playoff aspirations alive — and these expectations are new to this program that has not won more than 10 games in the Kyle Whittingham era. Strength of schedule is also an issue for this Utes team whose best opponent may have been the USC that they lost to by a 30-23 score. Utah’s most impressive wins were at Washington an BYU. Oregon is, by far, the best team that the Utes will have faced all season.

FINAL TAKE: I have thought that the Ducks’ quarterback, Justin Herbert, has been a bit overrated which is why I have faced Oregon in some of their big games this season. But I think Herbert is much more dangerous leading his team in the role of the underdog — and the Ducks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on a neutral field as an underdog getting up to 7 points. 10* CFB Oregon-Utah ABC-TV Special with the Oregon Ducks (103) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (102) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). THE SITUATION: Chicago (6-6) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 24-20 win at Detroit last Thursday on Thanksgiving Day as a 5.5-point favorite. Dallas (6-6) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 26-15 upset loss to Buffalo as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: After starting the season with three straight wins by double-digits, the Cowboys have lost six of their last nine games. Frankly, if Dallas was going to step-up, the moment was last week at home against a solid Bills team. And they outplayed the Bills by winning the first-down battle by a 32 to 22 margin while outgaining them by +70 yards. Yet this team is finding ways to lose. Dallas has not forced a turnover in four straight games. And while they have gained a healthy 418.7 total YPG over their last three contests, that has translated into just 19.7 PPG. Rookie offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is getting outfoxed by veteran defensive coordinators on big downs. The Red Zone success rate for scoring touchdowns in these last three games is just at 45.5% which represents a decline from their 54.8% touchdown success rate in the end zone for the season. Kicking woes are certainly playing a part in the malaise with this team after placekicker Brett Maher missed two gimme-field goals last week. Maher has missed five of his eleven field goal attempts from 30 to 49 yards which is the second-worst in the league. Head coach Jason Garrett is clearly on the hot seat but perhaps the players are ready for a change. Now this team goes back on the road where they are scoring 24.0 PPG while averaging 398.0 total YPG which is not nearly as impressive as their 27.7 PPG scoring mark at home where they also generate 468.1 total YPG. The Bears average only 281.8 total YPG — but Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 road games against teams who do not average more than 285 total YPG. And while the Cowboys surrendered 356 yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The team got more bad news this week with their star linebacker, Leighton Vander Esch, declared out for tonight’s game with a neck injury. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on Thursday Night Football. This has also been an unreliable team in expected close games as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by up to 3 points. Chicago has gotten back to winning helped by facing a weak schedule — but that has given this team confidence. The Bears have then covered the point spread in 6 of the last 9 games after a win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 6 points or less. Mitchell Trubisky has been playing with more confidence and verve as well as of late. Over his last four games, he has completed 94 of his 145 passes (65%) for 979 yards with eight TD passes and just four interceptions for a solid 91.1 Quarterback Rating. Over their last three games, the Bears are averaging 340.3 total YPG which is almost 60 YPG above their 281.8 total YPG season average. Just average production on offense will make a big difference for this team that is still playing outstanding defense. Chicago ranks 4th in the NFL by allowing 17.3 PPG while also ranking 7th in the league by giving up just 319.7 total YPG — and this team holds their visitors to just 16.0 PPG along with only 281.7 total YPG when playing at home. This elite defense makes this team a very dangerous home dog — they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games at home while going 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games as the underdog. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set at 42.5 to 49. And while the Cowboys average 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry, Chicago has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 home games against teams who average at least 4.5 YPC.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog getting up to a field goal. These are two playoff teams from last season who had deeper metrics that predicted the downturn we are now witnessing. However, Chicago is feeling a little better about themselves right now — and Dallas is a dome team favored on the road in cold weather with temperatures expected in the low-40s. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Chicago Bears (102) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (476) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (475). THE SITUATION: Seattle (9-2) has won four straight games as well as seven of their last eight games with their 17-9 win at Philadelphia as a 1-point favorite last week. Minnesota (8-3) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 27-23 win over Denver at home as a 10-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: With Seattle being around a field goal favorite at home in this NFC showdown, I expect Russell Wilson to outduel Kirk Cousins. The Seahawks have won twenty of their last twenty-two games in Prime-Time. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Seattle returns home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Wilson is leading an offense that is 3rd in the league by averaging 385.4 total YPG. The Seahawks defense has been playing better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to 22.3 PPG along with 354.7 total YPG which is -1.6 PPG and -15.6 YPG below their season averages. This Seattle defense has also been more opportunistic as of late as well as they have forced sixteen turnovers over their last six games as well triggering eight takeaways in their last two games. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in four of their last six games — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Additionally, Seattle has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in Weeks 10 through 13 of the regular season under head coach Pete Carroll — and they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 appearances on Monday Night Football. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win. The Vikings have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 road games after a straight-up win at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Minnesota does have an elite roster — but they have still failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. Cousins has lost eight of his last twelve starts over the last two seasons against teams with a winning record as well. And despite their string of victories, there are some warning signs for this team. The offense is averaging just 331.0 total YPG over their last three games which is -47.6 net YPG below their season mark. The Vikings are also allowing 24.3 PPG along with 404.7 total YPG over those last three contests which are +5.7 PPG and +66.1 YPG above their season average.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 appearances on Monday Night Football — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Seattle to play the Seahawks. I am not standing in the way of that evidence. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year is on the Seattle Seahawks (476) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (473) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (474). THE SITUATION: New England (10-1) has won their last two games after their 13-9 win over Dallas last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Houston (7-4) has won three of their last four games after their 20-17 win over Indianapolis two Thursdays ago as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The weather played a role for the Patriots gaining only 282 yards last week against the Cowboys. But the ability of Tom Brady to move the ball down the field should improve with Isaiah Wynn healthy again at left tackle. Wide receivers Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett will be both be active for this game as well — and rookie first-round draft pick N’Keal Harry continues to get more involved with this offense after being injured for the first part of the season. New England has also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after covering the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. The Patriots’ defense is leading the way for this team — that unit ranks number one in the NFL by allowing only 10.6 PPG and they are second in the league by giving up just 256.4 total YPG. New England goes back on the road where they are outscoring their home hosts by +16.3 PPG. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a close win at home by 3 points or less. The Texans outgained the Colts by +100 yards in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 100 yards. Houston stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Despite winning two of their last three games, the Texans have been outgained by -35.0 net YPG over that stretch. New England’s shutdown cornerback, Stephon Gilmore will likely neutralize Texans’ wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins — and while Will Fuller has played better as of late, the Patriots’ discipline on defense should contain him. This Houston team has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans are just 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games in December — and the Patriots have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in December. Look for Brady to do what it takes to outduel Deshaun Watson. 10* NFL New England-Houston NBC-TV Special with the New England Patriots (473) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (461) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (462). THE SITUATION: Oakland (6-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 34-3 upset loss in New York against the Jets as a 3.5-point favorite. Kansas City (7-4) has won two of their last three games with their 24-17 win over the Chargers in Mexico City back on November 18th as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Andy Reid is renowned for his amazing 22-4 straight-up record after a bye week but he has led the Chiefs to a milder 5-3 record in his eight games coached after a bye week in Kansas City. More importantly for our purposes, the Chiefs are just 4-4 ATS in those 8 games after a bye week under Reid’s leadership — so we should not be scared off betting against this team simply because Reid has had more time to prepare. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games when playing after a game on Monday Night Football. The Chiefs were outgained by -128 net yards to the Chargers due to their leaky defense allowing 438 yards in that game. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Furthermore, the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. Oakland should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Raiders have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Oakland should have success running the football behind rookie phenom Josh Jacobs against this Chiefs’ defense that ranks 30th in the NFL by allowing 143.1 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders will also be looking to avenge a 28-10 loss to Kansas City back on September 15th. The Chiefs are just 2-2 at home this season where they are actually being outgained by -17.4 net YPG. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Oakland Raiders (461) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (462). Best of luck for us — Frank.