At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (201) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (202). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (3-3) takes the field again after their 30-14 upset win at home over West Virginia as a +4.5-point favorite two Saturdays ago. Texas Tech (5-2) has five of their last six games with their 48-16 win over Kansas last Saturday as a -17.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa State is due for a big letdown after pulling off their second straight upset victory against a Big 12 rival. Before upsetting the Mountaineers two weeks ago, the Cyclones traveled to Stillwater to upset Oklahoma State by a 48-42 score as a 10-point underdog. Iowa State has then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after pulling off two straight upset victories. The Cyclones have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset victory by at least two touchdowns as a home underdog. Iowa State has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 after an upset win as a home underdog against a Big 12 rival. This Cyclones team does not boast a prolific offense as they rank 100th in the nation by scoring just 24.7 PPG and totaling 360.2 total YPG. Texas Tech can score — they rank 6th in the nation by scoring 43.9 PPG and they also rank 4th in the FBS by averaging 551.9 total YPG. The Red Raiders have covered the points spread in 12 of their last 14 games after playing a game at home — and this includes them covering the point spread in five of their last six games after a win on their home field. Additionally, Texas Tech generated 553 yards of offense in their win against the Jayhawks — and not only have they covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game but they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after generating at least 525 yards in their last game. This Red Raiders team has covered the point spread in two straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three contests. Now Texas Tech goes back on the road where they have a 2-1 record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games away from home. The offensive firepower of this Red Raiders team helps them be a dangerous underdog. Texas Tech has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa State is due for a letdown in this spot — and they are hosting a team they soundly defeated by a 31-13 score last October. The Red Raiders’ high-powered offense should keep them competitive in this game. 20* CFB Texas Tech-Iowa State ESPN2 Special with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (201) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (206) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (205). THE SITUATION: Clemson (7-0) remained undefeated last week with their 41-7 blowout win over NC State as a -17.5-point favorite. Florida State (4-3) has won three of their last four games with their 38-17 win over Wake Forest as a -10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES PLUS THE POINTS: The Tigers took care of business against the undefeated Wolfpack last week — but this team may be ripe for a letdown now. Clemson has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after winning at least six straight games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning at least seven straight games in a row. The Tigers did generate 471 yards in that win over NC State — but they are 2-5-1 ATS In their last 8 games are gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Clemson has also failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after winning at least three straight games in a row against fellow ACC opponents. Now this team goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games when they are laying more than two touchdowns. Florida State is steadily improving under first-year head coach Willie Taggart. The Seminoles typically build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. Florida State has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning three of their last four games. The Seminoles generated 471 yards of offense against the Demon Deacons with their quarterback Deondre Francois completing 28 of 40 passes for 341 yards with two TD passes. Florida State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Seminoles defense is improving as well as they have not allowed more than 115 rushing yards in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in at least two straight games. They host this game where they are 3-1 at home this year — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Florida State will be looking to avenge a 31-14 loss to Clemson last year where they were getting 16 points as a road underdog. The Seminoles remain loaded with talent as they move in the new direction under Taggart. The Tigers have a freshman quarterback playing in a hostile environment with very high stakes at this point of the season with the College Playoff Rankings coming out on Tuesday. Expect a closer game than expected. 10* CFB Clemson-Florida State ABC-TV Special with the Florida State Seminoles (206) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (205). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (188) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Purdue Boilermakers (187). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (4-3) has lost two of their last three games after losing their rivalry game at home against Michigan last Saturday by a 21-7 score as a 7.5-point underdog. Purdue (4-3) has won four straight games after their huge 49-20 upset over Ohio State last Saturday night as a 12-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): That was the biggest wins in the first two years in head coach Jeff Brohm’s tenure at Purdue to upset the Buckeyes at home on national television. A letdown for this team is likely. As it is, the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least 20 points. After losing their first three games of the season to Northwestern, Eastern Michigan and Missouri, Purdue has won their last four contests. This team has raced out to fast starts in their last three games with halftime leads of 20-7 at Nebraska followed by a 29-7 lead at Illinois before taking Ohio State to the locker room at halftime with a 14-3 lead last week. But it is difficult to sustain these opening leads — and this Boilermakers team has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after leading by double-digits at halftime in three straight games. Purdue is led by quarterback David Blough who is leading an offense that is 6th in the nation by averaging 337.6 passing YPG. The Boilermakers have averaged at least 328 passing yards in three straight games — and they have generated at least 516 total yards in those contests. But Purdue has then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after passing for at least 300 yards in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in three straight games. Blough passed for 378 yards last week against the Ohio State defense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after passing for at least 375 yards in their last game. This team goes on the road for just the third time this season after relatively easy trips to Nebraska and Illinois — and it will be challenging to maintain their high level of proficiency in the passing game in the cold Michigan air this afternoon. The Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 road games as an underdog getting 7 or fewer points. Michigan State has lost three times this season which is a disappointment to head coach Mark Dantonio after he returned nineteen starters from last year’s team that finished 10-3 with a 42-17 win over Washington State in the Holiday Bowl. The Spartans were completely stymied on offense last week against the stout Wolverines defense as they managed only 95 total yards. Junior quarterback Brian Lewerke is out for this game after suffering a shoulder injury — so redshirt freshman Rocky Lombardi will be under center for this game. The 6’3 signal caller has a similar profile as Lewerke with his strong arm and mobility — so I do not expect much of a downgrade in the Michigan State offense. Lombardi will be throwing against a vulnerable Boilermakers’ pass defense that ranks 127th in the nation by allowing 296.4 passing YPG. Purdue allowed 546 yards in their win over the Buckeyes last week — and they rank 103rd in the nation by allowing 433.1 total YPG. The Spartans need to win this game in the trenches by flexing their muscles on defense. After returning nine starters and 86% of the tackles from last year’s unit that finished 7th in the nation by allowing 297.6 total YPG, this year’s group has taken a step back by allowing 355.3 total YPG which is 44th in the FBS. The Michigan State run defense has been outstanding as they second in the nation by allowing only 79.6 rushing YPG — but they are getting torched in the passing game by allowing 275.7 passing YPG which is 116th in the nation. The Sparty pass defense has improved in the last two weeks as they have allowed only 404 combined passing yards in their last two games against Penn State and Michigan. While the secondary has seen an injury to returning starter Josiah Scott at cornerback, Michigan State returned all five starters from their secondary last season so these have been proven players. Expect the Spartans to respond with a strong effort this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread setback. Michigan State has only covered the point spread twice in their seven games this season — but they have then covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games.

FINAL TAKE: Purdue has benefitted from both a light and favorable schedule away from home so far this season — and their reliance on their passing attack will be harder to execute as the weather changes. Michigan State has underachieved at home this year — but this remains a talented team that will be angry after last week’s loss to the Wolverines. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Michigan State Spartans (188) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Purdue Boilermakers (187). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (120) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (119). THE SITUATION: UCLA (2-5) has won two straight games with their 31-30 win over Arizona last Saturday as a 10-point favorite. Utah (5-2) has won three straight games after their 41-28 win over USC as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: Utah has registered double-digit victories in three straight games against Stanford, Arizona, and USC in a stretch where they have averaged at least 41 PPG. But head coach Kyle Whittingham’s team may be due for a letdown now as a double-digit road favorite — especially against a struggling UCLA team that they crushed by a 48-17 score last season. The Utes are 3-2 in Pac-12 play so far this season — but they are still an unimpressive 31-37 straight-up in their last sixty-eight games against Pac-12 competition over the last seven and a half seasons. Utah did hold the Trojans with their rookie quarterback J.T. Daniels to just 132 passing yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing no more than 170 passing yards in their last game. The Utes go back on the road where they may have a 2-1 record but they are only outgaining their opponents by +0.4 net YPG. Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 road games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. UCLA is playing better football in winning their last two games this season. First-year head coach Chip Kelly has cleaned house by removing many of the players he inherited from the bloated and underachieving Jim Mora era. This is now a very young team that Kelly and his staff are coaching up. The improvements are most pronounced on offense where they have scored 34.0 PPG in their last two games while averaging 405.5 total YPG. Kelly got a boost last week with the healthy return of quarterback Wilton Speight who completed 17 of 27 passes for 204 yards with two touchdown passes. The graduate transfer from Michigan may not be mobile but he can operate the Kelly up-tempo offense that emphasizes an efficient passing attack similar to the one that Nick Foles successfully executed for Kelly in his first year with the Philadelphia Eagles. Speight will likely get the start in this game after missing time since the opening game of the season after he took the practice snaps with the first team this week. Freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson is dealing with an arm issue which makes his questionable tonight but Kelly has said he might be under center for parts of this game. The Bruins’ defense has been opportunistic in their last two games as they have forced eight turnovers. UCLA leads the Pac-12 with a +6 turnover margin — and the atmosphere of this nationally televised night game may help coax some mistakes by the Utes. The Bruins have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. UCLA has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 24 games after losing five or six of their last seven contests, the Bruins have covered the point spread in 16 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Utah is primed for a letdown after three easy victories — especially after the highs of defeating Stanford and USC. Expectations are low for this young Bruins team right now — but there remains talent which makes them dangerous as they continue to develop under Kelly and his coaching staff that have not forgotten how to coach. Lastly, the ability for Kelly to call on their 31-point loss to the Utes last year will surely be a good motivator. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the UCLA Bruins (120) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (119). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (122) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (121). THE SITUATION: Colorado State (3-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Friday with their 56-28 loss at Boise State as a +23.5-point underdog. Wyoming (2-6) has lost four in a row with their 24-16 loss at home to Utah State as a +13.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Colorado State actually outgained the Broncos in that game by 489 to 472 yards. The Rams allowed a 74-yard punt return for a touchdown along with a 44-yard kickoff return for a touchdown while enduring a -3 net turnover margin to lose control of keeping that game close. Colorado State did not force a turnover in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game where they did not force a turnover. The Rams went into the locker room trailing by a 35-0 score — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. And while they allowed Boise State to pass for 322 yards in that loss, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last contest. Colorado State had covered point spread expectations in their previous two games before last week — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive of 55 of their last 85 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Head coach Mike Bobo is making a change at quarterback as he has tapped sophomore Collin Hill to be under center tonight after he completed 12 of 14 passes in relief last week for 135 passing yards. Hill won the starting job as a freshman last year but his career has been derailed by two torn ACLs over the last two seasons. He looks to be a big upgrade over K.J. Carta-Samuels who has been lackluster as the starter this year as a grad transfer from Washington. This is a team that defeated Arkansas and New Mexico on their home field — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as an underdog getting 3 points or less. Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score at least 20 points. The Cowboys went into halftime with a 10-3 deficit against the Aggies — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they are just 1-3 with their lone winning being against an FCS school in Wofford. Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Cowboys are scoring only 14.5 PPG away from home while generating a mere 292.2 total YPG on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 road games when laying the points. They have only covered the point spread once this season — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams opened as a small favorite but the betting action has been on the Cowboys which makes this a very nice value situation in the Battle for the Bronze Boot. 10* CFB Friday Late Show Bailout with the Colorado State Rams (122) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (121). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (103) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (104). THE SITUATION: Miami (4-3) has lost three of their last four games with their 32-21 loss to Detroit as a 3-point underdog on Monday. Houston (4-3) has won four straight games with their 20-7 upset win at Jacksonville last week as a +3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: The Texans are prime candidates for an emotional letdown after their big upset win on the road on Sunday. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after an upset win — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after an upset win over an AFC South rival. Furthermore, this inconsistent Texans team has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning their last two games under head coach Bill O’Brien. The Texans upset the Jaguars despite generating only 272 yards of offense with quarterback DeShaun Watson completing just 12 of 24 passes for 139 passing yards. The second-year pro is clearly not at 100% as he deals with a collapsed lung and broken rib. These injuries have limited his dual-threat capabilities as he has rushed for only 15 yards in his last two games. Houston returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games. The Texans have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against AFC opponents. And in their last 8 opportunities to play on a short-week on a Thursday, Houston has failed to cover the point spread 7 times. Miami has gotten surprisingly better play out of quarterback Brock Osweiler who seems to perform better in the role of relief pitcher rather than the heir apparent starter. Osweiler is completing 67.5% of his passes while averaging 8.2 Yards-Per-Attempt while tossing six TD passes to just two interceptions while Ryan Tannehill completed 65.9% of his passes while averaging 7.5 YPA with eight TD passes but 5 interceptions in his five starts before suffering his shoulder injury. Osweiler did a better job of getting the ball out of his hand as he did not take a sack against the Bears defense two weeks ago (but he did take four sacks last week against the Lions with his team playing from behind). On defense, the Dolphins have allowed their last two opponents to average 8.02 and 7.53 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 6.5 YPP. Miami dumped a few of their high-profile players with high salaries in the offseason — but I liked these moves because they left this group under head coach Adam Gase feisty with a better team environment.

FINAL TAKE: We need to remember that we are not betting for or against teams: we are betting for or against point spreads. Asking the Texans to win by a touchdown or more is simply too much to ask of them. Somehow, look for this Dolphins team that has embraced the concept of being the whole being stronger than the individual parts to keep this game close. 10* NFL Miami-Houston Fox-TV Special with the Miami Dolphins (103) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (112) minus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (111). THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (4-2) looks to build off their 22-19 win at North Carolina back on October 13th as a 6.5-point favorite. Georgia Tech (3-4) looks to bounce-back from their 28-14 upset loss at home to Duke two Saturdays ago as a -1.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOKIES MINUS THE POINTS: Virginia Tech survived that game in Chapel Hills against the Tar Heels despite allowing 287 passing yards. The Hokies have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. After playing three of their last four games on the road, Virginia Tech returns home where they will be playing just their third game this season. The Hokies have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on their home field. This team will certainly benefit from the extra week to prepare for the unique Yellow Jackets spread triple option. The last time that Virginia Tech faced Georgia Tech off a bye week was in 2015 where they upset them on the road by a 2-point underdog by a 23-21 score. Defensive coordinator Bud Foster’s defense limited the Jackets rushing attack to just 161 rushing yards with subpar a 3.43 Yards-Per-Carry. Foster’s defense this season ranks 27th in the nation by allowing ply 123.0 rushing YPG — along with just 3.7 YPC. Foster’s defense will certainly benefit from the extra week to prepare for this offense. As it is, the Hokies have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a bye week. Georgia Tech (3-4) has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Yellow Jackets are just 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games away from home. Georgia Tech has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Virginia Tech will be motivated to avenge a 28-22 upset loss to this Georgia Tech team last year. This is an undervalued team as it not many upper echelon Power Conference teams that have only played at home twice this late into the season. The bye week should once again help Foster work his magic with his perennial outstanding defense. 10* CFB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Virginia Tech Hokies (112) minus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (111). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (113) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (114). THE SITUATION: Baylor (4-3) looks to bounce-back from a 23-17 loss at Texas back on October 13th as a 14-point underdog. West Virginia (5-1) also looks to rebound from a 30-14 upset loss at Iowa State as a -4.5-point favorite two Saturdays.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Baylor should play well tonight as they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. While the Bears have lost two of their last three games, they should gain confidence from playing the Longhorns close in Austin in their last game. Matt Ruhle’s team was just 1-11 last year in his first-year as the head coach in Waco. That team has ravaged with injuries — but yet they played much better than their final record indicated as they were only outgained by -40 net YPG despite losing eight of their nine games in Big 12 play. Baylor has a promising quarterback in sophomore Charlie Brewer who is leading an offense that is 11th in the nation by averaging 313.3 passing YPG — and the Bears are 18th in FBS in total offense by averaging 475.0 total YPG. Ruhle’s team is outgaining their opponents by +67.1 net YPG — and they are also outgaining their opponents when playing on the road by +21.3 net YPG. Baylor is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 14 points. West Virginia saw their undefeated season go by the wayside in that loss in Ames against the Cyclones which may have ruined their realistic chances of making the College Football Playoffs. The Mountaineers may be angry over that loss while still being galvanized with the fact that they still control their fate to win the Big 12 Conference Championship. But this team has not responded well to setbacks well under eighth-year head coach Dana Holgorsen. West Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games after an upset loss — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in eleven of their last thirteen home games coming off an upset loss to a conference rival. The Mountaineers have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a double-digit upset loss as a road favorite. West Virginia was overwhelmed in that loss to Iowa State as they allowed 498 yards of offense while managing just 152 yards themselves. That is not a good sign for this game as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 475 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after being outgained by at least 225 yards. West Virginia’s struggles on offense are likely to continue as they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to score more than 20 points. The extra week of rest and preparation in the Holgorsen regime has not served the Mountaineers well either as they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a bye week. West Virginia has also failed to cover the points spread in their last 4 games in the month of October.

FINAL TAKE: Despite everything that went wrong with the Bears last season, Baylor played the Mountaineers tough last year by losing by just a 38-36 score. They were trailing by a 38-13 sore before Ruhle put in Brewer in an attempt to spark the offense — and the freshman QB did by almost leading his team to the comeback victory. That experience should give this entire team confidence tonight — and the extra week Ruhle has had to help his defense scheme against the Holgorsen spread offense. 25* CFB Thursday FS1-TV Game of the Year with the Baylor Bears (113) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (475) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (476). THE SITUATION: New York (1-5) takes the field again after an embarrassing 34-13 loss at home to Philadelphia as a +1.5-point underdog two Thursdays ago on national television. Atlanta (2-4) survived a 34-29 victory at home last Sunday against Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has lost three straight games amidst internal drama about the play of Eli Manning. But this team gets an important piece back on offense in tight end Evan Engram who has been out with a knee injury. His presence on the field should help Manning while opening things up for Odell Beckham Jr. and their rookie running back Saquon Barkley. The Giants passing game has not been bad with Manning under center — they rank 13th in the league by averaging 260.8 passing YPG. But New York is scoring only 19.5 PPG which is 27th in the NFL. Engram should really help their Red Zone offense. As it is, the Giants have rebound to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they are 13-6-2 ATS in the last 21 games after a double-digit loss at home. New York did generate 401 yards of offense against the reigning Super Bowl Champions while outgaining the Eagles by +22 yards. The Giants have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to score more than 14 points. New York trailed after the first thirty minutes of this game by a 24-6 score after going into halftime the previous week against Carolina by a 20-13 score. A better start tonight is critical — and this team has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 17 points in the first half of their last two games. New York goes on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They also have covered the point spread in when playing with extra rest and preparation after playing a Thursday game. Perhaps facing the M*A*S*H unit which is this Falcons team is just what the doctor ordered. Injuries on defense have decimated that unit for Atlanta — they rank second-to-last in the league by allowing 32.0 PPG while ranking 30th in the NFL by giving up 417.2 total YPG. Additionally, the Falcons rank last in the NFL by giving up 24 touchdowns so far this season — and they are last in the NFL by allowing their opponents to convert on 56.2% of their third downs so Manning should have a good game tonight. As the injuries have mounted, Atlanta has allowed 35.0 PPG over their last four contests. The Falcons outlasted the Buccaneers last week despite allowing 510 yards of offense (389 passing yards) and getting outgained by -93 yards. They benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game. But that does not bode well for Atlanta tonight as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 30 home games after a win at home. Matt Ryan did lead Atlanta to outscore the Bucs in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after generating at least 400 yards in their last game. Additionally, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of October under head coach Dan Quinn.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are looking to salvage seasons that started with high expectations. Atlanta’s fall has been more devastation when considering they made the Super Bowl just two seasons ago but have now experienced seemingly insurmountable injuries. Add running back Devonta Freeman and their veteran kicker Matt Bryant who are also out for this game. The Giants are getting healthier — and they have played pretty well on the road where they are only being gained by -3.0 net YPG. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the New York Giants (475) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (463) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (464). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-2) looks to bounce-back from their 28-21 upset loss to Pittsburgh last week as a -1.5-point favorite. Kansas City (5-1) looks to rebound as well from their narrow 43-40 loss at New England last Sunday night as +3.5-point underdogs.

REASONS TO TAKE THEN BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati played good enough to finally defeat their AFC North rivals in the Steelers — but they gave Ben Roethlisberger too much time to engineer a game-winning drive after they tied the score up late in the 4th quarter. Marvin Lewis’ team should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread setback. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss as a home favorite to an AFC North rival. Cincinnati needs to play better on the defensive side of the football after allowing 369 passing yards to Pittsburgh. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. But this team is an underrated offensive machine under coordinator Bill Lazor as they rank 6th in the league by scoring 29.0 PPG. This scoring average rises to a 30.7 PPG mark when they are on the road — and they generating 417.3 total YPG away from home as well. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road. They also have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against AFC opponents. Kansas City saw their undefeated season end last week in front of a nationally televised audience — but this remains a team favored by the betting public with Patrick Mahomes almost pulling off the comeback win against the Patriots. The Chiefs have paid off bettors in all six of their games this season — but that is a dangerous bandwagon to jump on to now. As it is, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games after riding a six-game point spread winning streak. The Chiefs offense is certainly dynamic as they have averaged at least 424 yards of offense with a 6.24 Yards-Per-Play average in each of their last three games. But the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after averaging at least 400 yards in three straight games. Kansas City has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in three straight games. But with all those passing attempts are also possibilities to turn the ball over — and Mahomes has thrown multiple interceptions in two straight games. The problem for this Chiefs team is their porous defense that is allowing 28.7 PPG which is the sixth-most in the league. Kansas City really misses their veteran leader Eric Berry in their secondary who does not appear close to returning to the field. They will also be without linebacker Justin Houston who is dealing with an injured hamstring.

FINAL TAKE: Despite losing to the Steelers last week, the Bengals are an underappreciated team in the AFC. Expect a close game with the points being very valuable. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (463) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (464). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (474) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (473). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-5) comes off a heartbreaking 33-30 loss at Green Bay on Monday as a 9-point underdog. Los Angeles (6-0) remained the lone unbeaten team in the NFL with their 23-20 win in Denver last Sunday as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread in as the favorite. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. This is a challenging situation for this Rams’ team as near double-digit favorite when considering that they are playing on the road for the third straight week. While Los Angeles is a power rushing team at their core that generated 270 rushing yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Despite their perfect record, the Rams are not playing great on the defensive side of the football. Over their last three games, they are allowing 27.3 PPG. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow NFC opponents. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against the Niners while also failing to cover the point spread in four of their last 5 trips to San Francisco. The 49ers may be disappointed with the late 4th quarter loss to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on Monday but their ability to remain competitive despite the season-ending injury to Jimmy Garoppolo will boost their confidence in this game. C.J. Beathard led an offense that generated 401 yards of offense in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. San Francisco almost stole that game despite a -3 net turnover margin after enduring a -5 net turnover margin the previous week in a loss to Arizona — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after having a -3 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. The 49ers need to play better on defense after allowing 521 yards to Green Bay while giving up at least 27 points in the fifth straight game. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 500 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 25 points in five straight games. Despite their record, the Niners have covered the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in two of the last three games. Lastly, the 49ers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow NFC West opponents.

FINAL TAKE: While it is understandable why bettors would want to take the better team in the Rams, it is difficult for even the best of teams to defeat a divisional rival on the road by double-digits. Expect this feisty 49ers team to keep things closer than expected. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (474) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (472) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (471). THE SITUATION: Washington (3-2) looks to build off their 23-17 upset win over Carolina last week as a 1-point underdog. Dallas (3-3) hopes to build off their 40-7 blowout win over Jacksonville last Sunday as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SKINS PLUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys are feeling pretty good about themselves after thoroughly dominating the Jaguars last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games after a victory at home by at least three touchdowns. Dallas has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a win by at least four touchdowns. Dallas is a perfect 3-0 at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +14.0 PPG — but it has been a completely different story when they go on the road where they are 0-3 with an average losing margin of -7.4 PPG. The Cowboys are scoring just 12.3 PPG away from home and generating a mere 275.7 total YPG while being outgained by -74.3 net YPG. The decline in offensive production is coming from Dak Prescott and their passing attack that is producing only 156 passing YPG on the road. And while this Dallas team has an underrated defense, they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 30 road games after not allowing more than 9 points in their last game. The Cowboys have also not covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Washington benefited from a +3 net turnover margin last week against the Panthers — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. This team is doing a great job in protecting the football as they are second in the NFL with the fewest giveaways. The Skins did a great job of playing keep-away as they had a Time of Possession of 35:24 minutes in that game. But Washington will look to play better on defense after surrendering 6.03 Yards-Per-Play along with 269 passing yards. The Skins have covered the points spread in 10 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 6.5 YPP — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Washington stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games at home with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Jay Gruden and the Skins coaching staff has certainly spent plenty of time in the offseason preparing for the Cowboys after losing their last four games against their NFC East rivals. Washington has not defeated Dallas since January 3rd of 2016 but that was in the Kirk Cousins era. The Skins have new hope to dispatch of their divisional rivals with Alex Smith under center. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Washington Redskins (472) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (454) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (453). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-2) looks to rebound from a 31-28 upset loss in overtime at Miami as a 7.5-point favorite. New England (4-2) comes off their triumphant 43-40 win over Kansas City last Sunday night as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: I thought Chicago would not enjoy playing in the Miami heat — and their defense allowed a whopping 541 yards of offense to a Brock Osweiler-led offense. Expect the stout Bears defense to play better this afternoon as they are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing at least 350 yards and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Furthermore, Chicago has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread defeat. Now this team returns home to Soldier Field where they are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games — and they are also 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 10 home games as an underdog, the Bears have covered the point spread in 9 of these games. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win at home where they scored at least 31 points. While the Patriots offense has cranked up over the last few weeks, their defense remains an issue after they allowed 446 yards to a Chiefs team that had no trouble moving the football in the second-half of their game last week. New England allows their home hosts to score 28.5 PPG along with 447.5 total YPG — and that was against Jacksonville and Detroit who are not exactly offensive juggernauts. Chicago head coach Matt Nagy should be able to pull out a nugget or two from what his former team did to this Patriots defense last week. New England sees their offense slow down when away from home as well — they are scoring just 15.0 PPG while averaging only 255.5 total YPG. Lastly, the Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: It might look easy to take the Patriots since they are laying only a field goal — but that is likely to suggest a wisdom in the point spread. Expect this New England team to struggle on the road after playing three straight games at home. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Chicago Bears (454) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (453). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (468) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (467). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (3-3) looks to bounce-back from their ugly 40-7 upset loss at Dallas last week as a 3-point favorite. Houston (3-3) has won three straight games with their 20-13 win over Buffalo as a 10.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS MINUS THE POINTS: I have no illusions about this Jacksonville team that seems to be a shadow of the group that almost upset New England in last year’s AFC Championship Game. The Jags have lost six of their last eleven games and have taken a (predictable) step back on defense. And the Blake Bortles situation only seems to be worsening before it reaches its inevitable end. That all said — and after getting burned on this team last week — we want to be investing in situations like this. This is an embarrassed team that has lost two straight games by at least 16 points — but they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Jacksonville has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread setback. Now after playing their last two games on the road, this team returns home where they are outscoring their opponents by +9.0 PPG and outgaining them by +167.6 net YPG. Bortles tends to play better on his home field where he is leading an offense that is generating 405.3 total YPG. The team traded for running back Carlos Hyde this week but he is not expected to suit up with the short turnaround — but they still have a capable running back in T.J. Weldon. While their offense managed only 204 yards last week, they ave then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. The Jags’ defense should also play better at home where they are limiting their opponents to just 13.7 PPG along with only 232.7 total YPG. Jacksonville is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Jaguars have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on their home field. And in their last 10 games against fellow AFC South opponents, Jacksonville has covered the point spread 7 times. Houston may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The Texans won that game despite Deshaun Watson passing for only 142 net yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to pass for more than 150 team yards. Watson is protected by one of the weakest offensive lines in the NFL — expect for him to be in trouble all afternoon against this stout and deep Jaguars defensive line. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Houston goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games. And in their last 6 games against AFC South foes, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Even if Jacksonville is just a .500 team at this point, they should play one of their best games of the season at home against a divisional rival. 25* NFL AFC South Game of the Month with the Jacksonville Jaguars (468) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (467). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (451) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (452). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-3) looks to bounce-back from a 21-0 shutout loss at home to Baltimore last Sunday as 2.5-point underdogs. Los Angeles (4-2) has won three straight games after their 38-14 triumph on the road at Cleveland as a small 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee’s offense was simply dormant last week as they managed only 106 yards of offense against the stout Ravens defense. The Titans need to get back to running the football — Derrick Henry ran the ball only 7 times in that loss last week. The shutout loss should get the attention of the offense in practice and meetings this week. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to generate at least 275 yards of offense. The Titans have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and this includes then covering the point spread in six of their last eight contests after a setback. Tennessee also surrendered 361 yards of offense in that game to Baltimore — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 375 yards of offense. Defense is a strength of this team as the Titans ranked 3rd in the NFL by allowing only 17.8 PPG while also ranking 8th in the league by only giving up just 337.8 total YPG. These difficult trips to London test the character of teams — and I expect head coach Mike Vrabel’s team to respond with a strong effort. This team’s play on defense improves on the road as they limit their opponents to just 15.3 PPG and just 265.7 total YPG. Tennessee ranks 5th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 214.7 passing YPG — so they should be able to slow down Phillip Rivers and the Chargers’ passing attack. The Titans have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Los Angeles has the difficult trip of traveling to London from the west coast — and they were already coming off a game on the road in Cleveland. A letdown looks possible for this Chargers team that is feeling pretty good about themselves right now. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Chargers are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while LA generated 449 yards of offense against the Browns defense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Expect a spirited effort from this Titans team after their embarrassing performance last week. Their strong defense and a commitment to winning the game at the line of scrimmage should help them keep things close. 25* NFL London Calling Game of the Year with the Tennessee Titans (451) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (368) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (367). THE SITUATION: Washington State (5-1) returns to the field off a bye week after they crushed Oregon State on the road two Saturdays ago by a 56-37 sore as an 18.5-point favorite. Oregon (5-1) comes off a big 30-27 upset win at Washington in overtime last week as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: That was the biggest win so far in the first-year of new head coach Mario Cristobal at Oregon — but they may be due for a letdown now. The Ducks are just 3-13-1 ATS In their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a win on their home field. Oregon has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. The Ducks have benefited from only committing one turnover in each of their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not committing more than one turnover in two straight games. Now this team goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road with the number set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Washington State (5-1) should build off the momentum of their win two weeks ago. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a point spread victory. Washington State has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Led by East Carolina transfer Gardner Minshew at quarterback, the Cougars are leading the nation by averaging 413.7 passing YPG. Minshew operating the Mike Leach Air Raid offense should have their way against this Ducks pass defense that is tied for 88th in the nation by allowing 239.0 passing YPG. Oregon allowed Stanford to pass for 327 yards against them — and that is not nearly as potent a passing offense as what they will have to deal with tonight. Experience and depth were concerns for the Ducks a cornerback entering the season — and this is, by far, their biggest test of the season. But what has helped push this football program to the next level has been a significant improvement of play on the defensive side of the football After ranking 16th in the nation last season by holding their opponents to just 323.3 total YPG, the Cougars have improved that number this year as they are holding their opponents to only 313.7 total YPG which ranks 15th in the FBS. Washington State has covered the point spread in 8 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Oregon has started strong with five wins in their first six games — but they have benefited from a sweetheart early schedule that saw five of those games at home. This is the Ducks just second game away from home. Washington State has won nineteen of their last twenty-three games at home over the last four seasons — and they are also a dominant 21-9 straight-up in Pac-12 play in the Leach era going back the last four seasons. Expect their offense to be too for this Oregon team. 25* CFB Saturday Night Fox-TV Game of the Month with the Washington State Cougars (368) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (367). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (370) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (369). THE SITUATION: Washington (5-2) looks to rebound from their 30-27 loss in overtime at Oregon in overtime last week as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. Colorado (5-1) suffered their first loss of the season last week in their 31-20 loss at USC as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: Washington should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. This Huskies team entered the season with legitimate national championship aspirations — but injuries and a very difficult schedule have likely derailed those plans. Their two losses to the Ducks and Auburn were by a combined 8 points. Both of those setbacks were away from home — now Washington returns home where they are undefeated while outscoring their opponents by +25.7 PPG while outgaining them by +247.9 net YPG. They are scoring 35.7 PPG while generating 489.2 total YPG on their home field this season. I was concerned about the status of running back Myles Gaskin with his shoulder injury but he has been upgraded to probable for this contest. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Colorado suffered their first loss of the season against the Trojans — but they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. The Buffaloes were expected to be better this season after suffering a 5-7 campaign last year — but this is not an elite football program at the same level as what Chris Petersen has built in Spokane. Colorado is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 8 meetings with Washington, they have failed to cover the point spread in all 8 contests — and this includes four of these games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Look for the Huskies to take out their frustrations from last week on this Colorado team that surrendered 565 yards of offense on the road to a still winless Nebraska team. 10* CFB Colorado-Washington Fox-TV Special with the Washington Huskies (370) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (369). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (332) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (331). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (4-2) looks to build off the momentum of their 21-17 upset win at Penn State last Saturday as a +13.5-point underdog. Michigan (6-1) enters this rivalry game coming off a 38-13 blowout win at home over Wisconsin as a 10-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINTS: This contest is always the Super Bowl to this Michigan State team under head coach Mark Dantonio. The Spartans have covered the point spread in 10 of the last 11 meetings between these two teams — and this includes them covering the point spread in the last 5 meetings in East Lansing. Michigan State has won four of these last five in-state battles as well as eight of their last ten encounters. They are likely to be more confident off their upset on the road in Happy Valley against the Nittany Lions — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after pulling off an upset win against a Big Ten opponent. The Spartans have also covered the point spread in 14 of the last 20 games after pulling off an upset win on the road. Dantonio had to be pleased with the performance of his team as they won the first down battle by a 25-14 margin while controlling the Time of Possession for 34:12 minutes. That is the formula for success for this Michigan State team — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where they gained at least 24 first downs while controlling the clock for at least 34 minutes. Junior quarterback Brian Lewerke passed for 259 yards in that contest — and the Spartans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. They return home where they are scoring 29.3 PPG while outgaining their visitors by +84.0 net YPG. Dantonio loves his team in the underdog role — they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when getting the points. Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a victory by at least 20 points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a point spread victory. The Wolverines enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin last week in their win over the Badgers — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. And while Michigan has scored 80 points in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after scoring at least 37 points in two straight games. Now this team goes back on the road where they are scoring just 18.5 PPG. Their offensive line has played better after being exposed by the Fighting Irish — but this remains the fundamental problem for this team under head coach Jim Harbaugh. That group will be challenged by a tough Spartans defensive line. The Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Harbaugh will be overjoyed with just escaping East Lansing with a win given the struggles his teams have had in rivalry games in his tenure as the head coach in Ann Arbor. Expect a close game from a very good Sparty team that returned nineteen starters from their group that won ten games last year — including a 14-10 win in the Big House. 10* CFB Michigan-Michigan State Fox-TV Special with the Michigan State Spartans (332) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (384) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (383). THE SITUATION: TCU (3-3) looks to bounce-back from their 17-14 upset loss to Texas Tech as a 7.5-point favorite two Thursdays ago. Oklahoma (5-1) takes the field again after their 48-45 upset loss two Saturdays ago to Texas as a 7-point favorite in the Red River Rivalry.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS PLUS THE POINTS: TCU began the season with College Playoff aspirations after returning perhaps the most talent ever on offense in head coach Gary Patterson’s eighteen seasons with the program. But a difficult schedule and a failure to protect the football has led to three losses so far this season. The Horned Frogs other two losses besides to the Red Raiders were to Ohio State and Texas who have combined to only lose one game this season. In fact, the combined record of those three teams that TCU has lost to is 17-3 this season — yet Patterson’s team entered halftime in leads in all three of those games. Turnovers are killing this team. They have suffered a -9 net turnover margin — they rank 125th in the nation with a -1.5 net turnover margin per game. Facing this Sooners’ team may be just what the doctor ordered as they have only forced five turnovers so far this season. This remains a good Horned Frogs team that is outscoring their opponents by +8.5 PPG while outgaining them by +102.4 net YPG. They have not scored more than 17 points in three straight games but playing at home will help in this game as they are scoring 28.5 PPG while averaging 430 net YPG on their home field. They should play better in this game as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when playing with extra rest and preparation after a game on a Thursday. This extra time will help quarterback Shawn Robinson who has been dealing with a shoulder issue despite completing 26 of 45 passes for 290 yards against Texas Tech in his last game. Additionally, TCU has not covered the point spread in their last three games — but they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. The Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. Oklahoma saw their perfect season two weeks ago which might serve as a deflating loss. The Sooners defense surrendered 501 yards to the Longhorns in that loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. That loss compelled head coach Lincoln Riley to dismiss defensive coordinator Mike Stoops and elevate defensive line coach Ruffin McNeill to the position. The former Texas Tech defensive coordinator has a large task in front of him with a defensive unit that has finished outside the top-50 four times in the previous six seasons since Stoops returned to the program. Oklahoma ranks 97th in the nation by allowing 421.2 total YPG — and their porous pass defense is giving up 264.3 passing YPG. Until McNeill can improve the fundamentals of his players (like tackling), the Sooners are going to have to outscore their opponents — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while they have averaged at least 9.17 and 11.24 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games, Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP in two straight games. The Sooners have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games in expected high scoring games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. Don’t be surprised if the TCU defense slows down the Oklahoma offense as that unit ranks 14th in the nation by allowing only 311.8 total YPG. The Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of October.

FINAL TAKE: After reaching the College Playoffs last year, this Oklahoma team looks fragile with their shaky defense and turmoil regarding the coaching change. While the Horned Frogs have suffered three disappointing losses, the pain of those setbacks would be erased if this team could avenge their two losses to Oklahoma last year including their 41-17 loss to the Sooners last December in the Big 12 Championship Game. Expect a close contest with TCU having a good chance to pull the upset. 25* CFB Big 12 Game of the Month with the TCU Horned Frogs (384) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (383). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UNLV Rebels (310) plus the points versus the Air Force Falcons (309). THE SITUATION: UNLV (2-4) looks to rebound from a 59-28 loss at Utah State last Saturday as a 27-point underdog. Air Force (2-4) also looks to bounce-back from a 21-17 loss last Friday at San Diego State as an 11-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a crucial game for UNLV in the fourth year under head coach Tony Sanchez. The former Bishop Gorman High School head coach entered this season on the hot seat with a 12-24 record in his first three seasons at UNLV. Fourteen starters returned from last year’s 5-7 team with some junior college transfers added to the mix — but so far the rebels only have wins over UTEP and Prairie Valley A&M on their resume. But there are reasons for optimism for the Rebels tonight. They return home where they are 2-1 with an average winning margin of +7.0 PPG. Sanchez usually is able to get his team to play better after an underwhelming performance as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The defense has been an issue as UNLV allowed the Aggies to generate 598 yards of offense a week after allowing 502 yards of offense at home to New Mexico. But the Rebels have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after allowing at least 450 yards in two straight contests. UNLV will benefit from having already played the Lobos who run a similar offense as the Falcons spread rushing attack. The Rebels did a solid job slowing down the run in that game as New Mexico averaged only 4.2 Yards-Per-Carry — but it was the passing game of the Lobos that did UNLV as they passed for 250 yards. Air Force is not as potent with their passing attack as I will detail below. Getting off to a better start will be important for the Rebels after Utah State raced out to a 42-0 lead at halftime last week. UNLV has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games after trailing by at least two touchdowns in their last game. The Rebels will be without their incumbent starting quarterback Amani Rogers who is still dealing with a foot injury — but sophomore Max Gilliam has been capable in his absence. Gilliam completed 18 of 36 passes for 250 yards with three touchdown passes last week —and his ability to throw downfield may be just what his teams for this match-up against an Air Force team that ranks 76th in the nation by allowing their opponents to average 232.2 passing YPG. UNLV did get good injury news this week with their top running back Lexington Thomas was upgraded to probable after he suffered a concussion. Thomas has rushed 552 yards so far this season with six touchdowns. The Rebels are typically dangerous underdogs as they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when getting 3.5 to 10 points — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games getting 7.5 to 10 points. And in their last 11 games played on a Friday night, UNLV is 7-3-1 ATS. Air Force may suffer a hangover after blowing their opportunity to pull off a big upset against the Aztecs as they held a 17-14 lead midway through the 4th quarter. As it is, the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 33 games after a straight-up loss — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in ten of their last thirteen games after a defeat. Their top quarterback Donald Hammond III is likely out for this game with a serious injury he suffered last week which means that junior Isaiah Sanders will get the start for this game. Sanders is the least effective rushing quarterback on the Falcons’ depth chart but he is the best pure passer of the quarterbacking group. But this Air Force offense is not equipped to put up big yards in their passing game. Sanders is completing only 53.3% of his passes and the 7.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average is below Hammond’s 8.6 YPA this season. Sanders has thrown 45 of the Falcons’ 88 passes this season but he is responsible for both interceptions this team has seen on offense. Air Force stays on the road for the second straight week where they are 0-3 with an average losing margin of -6.7 net PPG — and they are being outgained by -53.7 net YPG. Air Force have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 road games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. Air Force has only committed one turnover in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not committing more than one turnover in two straight games. Lastly, the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games in Mountain West Conference play.

FINAL TAKE: Air Force may be flat in this game given their slow start and the disappointing loss last week while UNLV is playing a crucial game to salvage their season. Expect a close game. 25* CFB Friday CBS Sports Network Game of the Year with the UNLV Rebels (310) plus the points versus the Air Force Falcons (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (302) plus the point(s) versus the Denver Broncos (301). THE SITUATION: Arizona (1-5) looks to bounce-back from their 27-17 loss at Minnesota last Sunday as a 10-point underdog. Denver (2-4) has lost four straight games after their 23-20 loss to the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Arizona should play better in this game as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. After playing their last two games on the road, the Cardinals return home where rookie quarterback Josh Rosen will be making his first start in front of the home fans. Rosen helps this offense because he has a better arm than Bradford which allows him the Arizona offense to design route schemes where the former UCLA star can hit tight windows. His pocket awareness also will help with their depleted offensive line. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, Arizona is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record. Denver is reeling with second-year head coach Vance Joseph on the hot seat after their encouraging 2-0 start and Broncos’ fans already clamoring for Chad Kelly to replace the struggling Case Keenum who has already thrown 8 interceptions to just 7 touchdown passes. But the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread setback. Denver’s once strong defense has fallen apart as they rank 27th in the league by allowing 407.3 total YPG. It is the run defense that has let the Broncos down as they have allowed a whopping 225.7 rushing YPG over their last three contests with opposing rushers averaging 7.6 Yards-Per-Carry. This could be the breakout game for the Cardinals running back David Johnson who hopes to reimagine his form from 2015 where he generated 2118 yards from scrimmage before seeing his last two seasons derailed by injury. The Broncos are last in the NFL by allowing 161.3 rushing YPG. They gave 270 rushing yards last week to the Rams en route to surrendering 444 yards overall — and they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. To compound matters, the Broncos are dealing with a host of injuries including their spark-plug outside linebacker Shane Ray who has been declared out for this game with a knee. This team is also dealing with attrition on their offensive line with right tackle Jared Veldheer declared out tonight and left guard Ron Leary already on IR. Now Denver goes on the road on a short week where they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games. The Broncos have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: These Thursday games are a test of a team’s character and a litmus test regarding the health of a team’s culture. These are two teams moving in opposite directions. Denver is in free-fall with injuries robbing Joseph of the opportunity to save his job. Arizona went through this last year but still managed to eke out an 8-8 season. Despite winning only one game so far this season, there is a sense of optimism with the Cardinals having gone younger after having the oldest roster in the league last year. Rosen and first-year head coach Steve Wilks offer this team hope which can be validated by the team earning their first win at home this season. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Arizona Cardinals (302) plus the point(s) versus the Denver Broncos (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arkansas State Red Wolves (304) minus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (303). THE SITUATION: Arkansas State (3-3) looks to bounce-back from their 35-9 loss at home to Appalachian State last Tuesday as a +10.5-point favorite. Georgia State (2-4) looks to rebound as well from a 37-20 loss at Troy back on October 4th as a 17-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED WOLVES MINUS THE POINTS: Arkansas State has lost two straight games after their benchmark loss to the Mountaineers last week which will likely cost them a shot at winning the Sun Belt Conference title. But don’t expect this Red Wolves team to close up shop on this season under fifth-year head coach Blake Anderson. His teams have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after a loss. This team is playing better than record suggests — they are outgaining their opponents by +58.5 net YPG. Turnovers have been holding back this team as they are tied for 90th in the FBS by averaging -0.33 turnovers-per-game. It was a -3 net turnover margin that played a big role in their loss to Appalachian State last week. This remains a talented team led by senior quarterback Justice Hansen who leads an offense that is 23rd in the FBS by averaging 283.3 passing YPG. Hansen should have a big game against the inexperienced cornerbacks of the Panthers that are allowing opponents to average 247.3 passing YPG which is 98th in the FBS. The Red Wolves stay at home for this game where they are outgaining their visitors by +136.3 net YPG. Arkansas State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. This team has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games played on a Thursday night — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of October. Furthermore, the Red Wolves are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games in conference play. Georgia State is struggling on defense are they allowed 554 yards to the Trojans in their last game. The Panthers are 119th in the nation by allowing 491.5 total YPG. They are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Georgia State is also just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against conference opponents. This was a team that was 7-5 last season but all seven of their wins were against teams with a losing record — and those opponents had a combined record of 16-56. The Panthers returned only eleven starters from that team. This situation has the makings of a blowout when considering that Georgia State is being outscored by -11.9 PPG while being outgained by -125.8 net YPG. The Panthers stay on the road for their second straight game where they are winless in their three games while being outscored by -29.4 PPG. Georgia State is also being outgained by -241.6 total YPG away from home — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: This Arkansas State still has bowl game aspirations — and they remain one of the better teams in the Sun Belt despite their bad loss to Appalachian State last week. Expect them to expose this Georgia State team. 25* CFB Thursday Night ESPNU Game of the Month with the Arkansas State Red Wolves (304) minus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (277) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (278). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-4) has lost three in a row with their 28-18 upset loss to Arizona last week as a 3-point favorite. Green Bay (2-2-1) looks to bounce-back from a 31-23 loss in Detroit as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: San Francisco should play much better tonight than they did last week. They have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival — and this includes them covering the point spread in six of their last nine games when that upset loss to an NFC West rival was when they were a home favorite. Head coach Mike Shanahan did get a solid game from quarterback C.J. Beathard running his offense. The second-year QB completed 34 of 54 passes for 349 yards in that game — and the Niners have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. The 49ers go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Green Bay generated 521 yards of offense in their last loss to the Lions — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after generating at least 500 yards in their last game. Even in defeat, the Packers outgained the Lions by a whopping +257 yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +100 yards. And Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Don’t be fooled by Green Bay’s good defensive numbers — they rank 4th in the NFL in total defense by allowing only 313.8 total YPG. But those numbers are skewed with their shutout victory at home over the hapless Buffalo offense two weeks ago. Take out that Bills game, the Packers are allowing 28.5 PPG along with 356.0 YPG. Lastly, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against fellow NFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay is being asked to lay too many points in this one. Expect the 49ers even with Beathard under center to keep this game closer than expected. 10* NFL San Francisco-Green Bay ESPN Special with the San Francisco 49ers (277) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (276) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (275). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (5-0) remained undefeated last week with their 30-14 win over Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite. New England (3-2) has won two games in a row with their 38-24 win over Indianapolis last Thursday as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Chiefs have covered the point spread in all five of their games this season with the last three occurring when they were laying the points as the favorite. Foxboro is where these point spread streaks go to die. As it is, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering point spread expectations in five straight games. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three straight games as the favorite. KC has scored at least 27 points in all five of their games this year — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 25 points in four straight games while also failing to cover the point spread in 3 of the last 4 games after scoring at least 25 points in five straight contests. And while they generated 424 yards in that win over Jacksonville last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. New England has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They generated 438 yards of offense in their win over the Colts — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Patriots did surrender 439 yards in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after allowing at least 350 yards as well. New England is also 36-14-2 ATS in their last 52 games in the month of October.

FINAL TAKE: Bill Belichick coached-teams are a perfect 23-0 at home when facing quarterbacks below the age of 25 — and while that does not take into account the point spread, his coaching staff has the benefit of a few extra days to prepare for Patrick Mahomes after their Thursday game last week. This will be a fired-up Patriots team that will remember the 42-27 beatdown they suffered at the hands of the Chiefs in Game One of last year. 10* NFL Kansas City-New England NBC-TV Special with the New England Patriots (276) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (271) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (272). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (3-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 30-14 loss in Kansas City last week as a 3-point underdog. Dallas (2-3) has also lost two of their last three games with their 19-16 loss in overtime in Houston last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS MINUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Quarterback Blake Bortles did pass for 430 yards in that game while leading an offense that generated 502 yards of offense. But he also threw four interceptions which buried his team. He tends to play better after embarrassing efforts — and Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Jags surrendered 298 passing yards to the Chiefs in that game — but they are a decisive 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after not allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. They should slam the door on this one-dimensional Cowboys’ offense that lacks credible targets in the passing game. Jacksonville will be able to play eight players in the box to slow down Ezekiel Elliott since Dallas cannot burn them down the field in the passing game given their outstanding cover corners led by Jalen Ramsey. Dallas (2-3) is a mess given the turmoil surrounding this team with the Dez Bryant fallout and now the questioning of head coach Jason Garrett after he decided to punt on 4th down in overtime against the Texans which contributed to that outright loss. Bad vibes in Big-D. They have not covered the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three contests. Frankly, they were fortunate to even see overtime against the Texans considering that they were outgained by a 462 to 292 margin in yards. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. This Cowboys team also does not retain much of a home-field advantage in Jerry World either — in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Bortles should do a better job protecting the football in this game where the offense does not have to play aggressively — this is his kind of game with the outstanding Jaguars’ defense leading the way. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Jacksonville Jaguars (271) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (270) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (269). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (5-0) remained undefeated this season with their 33-31 win in Seattle last week as a 7.5-point favorite. Denver (2-3) looks to bounce-back from their 34-16 loss in New York against the Jets as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: The Rams may get caught reading the press clippers regarding their supposed inevitable Super Bowl appearance this season. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road off a game they won but failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. Los Angeles is certainly clicking on offense after generating 468 yards of offense last week against the Seahawks. The Rams have scored at least 33 points in all five of their games this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 30 points in five straight games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is struggling with his defense despite all the high profile acquisitions in the offseason. The secondary is missing Aqib Talib who is on Injured Reserve which has left cornerback Marcus Peters too often exposed against number one wide receivers. Opposing QBs have throw 8 touchdown passes with zero interceptions over their last three games. The lack of a pass rush is not helping — your Super Bowl locks are actually last in the NFL with just ten sacks this season while ranking eighth from the bottom with just 24 hits on the quarterback. Yet it is the run defense that may be the biggest concern for this unit as they are allowing opposing rushers to average 4.86 Yards-Per-Carry. Denver will run the football to burn time off the clock to keep the Rams’ potent offense off the field. The Broncos are averaging 5.6 YPC which has resulted in 137 rushing YPG — so they should have success running the football. This formula almost worked against Kansas City two weeks ago as they held the lead until Patrick Mahomes engineered that late drive that allowed them to escape Mile High with a 27-23 win. Denver needs to play better on defense after allowing the Jets to generate 323 rushing yards en route to their overall 512 yards of offense. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 150 yards in their last game. And in their last 16 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game, Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of these contests. The Broncos do play better at home where they are 2-1 while outgaining their opponents by +38.3 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams are laying too many points — expect Denver to keep this a close game. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Special with the Denver Broncos (270) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (258) plus (or minus) the points versus the Carolina Panthers (257). THE SITUATION: Carolina (3-1) has won two straight games with their 33-31 win over the Giants last Sunday as a 7-point favorite after Graham Gano nailed a 63-yard field goal as time expired in the fourth quarter. Washington (2-2) picks themselves off the mat on a short work week for them after they were humiliated on national television by a 43-19 score in New Orleans as a +5.5-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE WASHINGTON PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINTS: The Skins should bounce-back with a strong effort as they are a better team than what they showed on Monday. Washington has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread setback. The Skins have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Returning home will help where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. This team needs to get back to running the football as they attempted only 18 rushes for a measly 39 yards against the Saints. Chris Thompson ran the ball only 8 times for 17 yards. Washington has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. Expect the Skins to play better on the defensive of the football as well after being torched by Drew Brees for 349 passing yards. The Skins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 300 passing yards. And while New Orleans averaged 7.45 Yards-Per-Play, Washington has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 7.0 YPP. Carolina has won their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win while also failing to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning two straight games. The Panthers have scored 64 points in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. Carolina did surrender 432 yards to the Giants(!) offense last week — and they are just 6-14-2 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. This is not a reliable road favorite as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when laying no more than 3 points.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams are closer in quality than the point spread suggests. Don’t be shocked if Washington pulls the upset but take the points for some insurance. 20* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Washington Redskins (258) plus (or minus) the points versus the Carolina Panthers (257). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (262) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (261). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (2-2-1) is feeling pretty good about themselves after their 41-17 dismantlement of the M*A*S*H unit that is the Atlanta Falcons last Sunday as a 3.5-point favorite. Cincinnati (4-1) has won two straight games with their 27-17 win over Miami as a 6.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, Pittsburgh is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Steelers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 5 games against AFC North opponents, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in all 5 games. Cincinnati tends to play better with the confidence compiled from positive momentum. They have covered the point spread in two of their last three games — and not only have they covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread win but they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after paying off bettors in two of their last three games. Additionally, the Bengals have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. And in their last 8 games against fellow AFC opponents, Cincinnati has covered the point spread all 8 times — and this includes four straight games against fellow AFC North foes.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have won the last six meetings between these two teams — so this is a huge game for the Bengals. Pittsburgh is making tons of mistakes this year but relying on Big Ben Roethlisberger to save them time and time again. Look for them to make one mistake too many against this Cincinnati team that is playing confident football with six big chips on their shoulder having not defeated the Steelers since the idyllic days of our innocence back on November 1st, 2015. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (262) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (261). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (256) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (255). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-1) has won three straight games after they dismantled Tampa Bay two weeks ago by a 48-10 score as a 3-point favorite. Miami (3-2) has lost two straight games with their 27-17 loss at Cincinnati as a 6.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bears are the toast of the NFL right now with their intimidating defense led by Khalil Mack and their new wave offense under rookie head coach Matt Nagy. But before we anoint this team as the reincarnation of the 1985 Bears, let’s remember that this team has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home at Soldier Field. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a bye week. Nagy’s game planning was clicking on all cylinders against the Buccaneers defense as they raced out to an incomparable 38-3 lead at halftime of that game while generating a total of 483 yards of offense. But the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. They were some cracks in the armor of this Chicago defense as they surrendered 251 passing yards in that game — and they are then a decisive 18-39-1 ATS in their last 58 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And in their last 18 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of these contests. Miami will be looking to play better in this game after following up getting trounced in New England they blew a 14-0 halftime lead against the Bengals in Cincinnati last week. They were done in the second-half by a 22-yard interception return for a touchdown as well as a 19-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. The Dolphins have rebounded to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after suffering two straight double-digit losses. Miami has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not allowing more than a field in the first half of their last game. This is a scrappy group that head coach Adam Gase has kept together this season after they let go of some of their underperforming big personalities in this offseason. This team returns home where they are tough to play against. The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog getting less than 7 points. UPDATE: the reports coming in late Saturday night is that QB Ryan Tannehill has an ankle sprain and is listed as questionable for this game. The point spread is moving is adjusting with the Dolphins getting more than 4 points in most locations. Brock Osweiler will go under center for Miami if Tannehill cannot go. While that is a downgrade, that is a QB with plenty of experience. The recipe for success with Miami remains winning this game on both sides of the line of scrimmage.

FINAL TAKE: I hate this situation for the Bears. I don’t like it when teams on hot streaks go into their bye week as it tends to cool off their momentum. And speaking of cooling off, this Chicago team will likely be dreaming of their hotel air conditioners or at least the crisp fall air in the Windy City about ten minutes into this game at South Beach where it remains hot as blazes. Former Miami Dolphin Brian Cox claimed that this Bears team is going to “melt” before this game is over — we have certainly seen the Patriots perform poorly in the Miami heat once it turns into fall in the north. The Dolphins should play very well in this game. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Miami Dolphins (256) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (255). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (156) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (155). THE SITUATION: USC (3-2) returns to the field after a bye week that followed their 24-20 win at Arizona back on September 29th as a 3.5-point favorite. Colorado (5-0) remained undefeated last week after their 28-21 win over Arizona State as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS MINUS THE POINTS: The Buffaloes have covered the point spread in their last two games as the favorite — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after covering the point spread in their previous two games as the favorite. Colorado has benefited from an easy schedule as Colorado State, Nebraska, New Hampshire, UCLA and then the Sun Devils last week do not have records better than .500 with the Cornhuskers and Bruins still yet to win a game this year. The Buffaloes are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Colorado has helped themselves by not committing a turnover in two straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 52 games after not committing a turnover in their last game while also failing to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after not committing a turnover in two straight game. But the Buffaloes did not force a turnover last week either — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 27 games after failing to earn at least one takeaway in their last game. Now after playing their last three games at home, Colorado goes on the road for just the second time this season. The Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after winning their last two games at home. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games when getting 3.5 to 7 points. USC responded to two losses at Stanford and Texas by winning two straight games against Pac-12 opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning two straight games against conference foes. The Trojans are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread win. USC has played one of the most difficult sets of games this season — but this team is steadily improving. This team is beginning to enforce their will at the line of scrimmage after rushing for 253 yards against the Wildcats while limiting them to just 98 rushing yards. The Trojans have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last game — and they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. USC has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after out-rushing their last opponent by at least +150 net yards. This commitment to rushing the football is making things easier for freshman quarterback J.T. Daniels who was an efficient 16 of 24 against Arizona for 197 passing yards. The Trojans have only forced three turnovers this year while never generating more than one turnover in a game. But USC has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not generating more than one takeaway in at least three straight games.

FINAL TAKE: USC may have two losses — but they are the more battle-tested team. Colorado has benefited from a sweetheart early schedule which has featured only one game away from home. Look for this improving Trojans team to expose the Buffaloes. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Month with the USC Trojans (156) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida International Golden Panthers (144) minus the points versus the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (143). THE SITUATION: Florida International (3-2) takes the field again after their 55-9 blowout win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff two Saturdays ago. Middle Tennessee (3-2) pulled off their second straight upset victory last Friday with their 34-24 win at Marshall as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS: FIU should be prepared for this game with rest and momentum from their big week. Not only have the Golden Panthers covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a win by at least 20 points. Additionally, FIU has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home after a win by at least four touchdowns. The Golden Panthers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a bye week. FIU stays at home where they are scoring 48.7 PPG while averaging 492.0 total YPG. They are outscoring their visitors by +25.0 PPG while outgaining them by +102.0 net YPG. The Golden Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. FIU has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Middle Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road. The Blue Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. They stay on the road where they are just 1-2 while scoring only 16.0 PPG and averaging just 334.0 total YPG. They are being outscored by -20.0 PPG away from home while being outgained by -70.0 net YPG. Middle Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record. The Blue Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: FIU will be motivated to avenge a 37-17 loss to the Blue Raiders last October 7th. They are in a great position to knock off this Blue Raiders team that is looking to pull an upset for the third straight week after accomplishing this feat against FAU and Middle Tennessee as a 3-point underdog in both contests. The third time will likely not be the charm for Middle Tennessee. 20* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Florida International Golden Panthers (144) minus the points versus the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (143). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (163) minus the points versus the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (164). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (3-2) looks to bounce-back from a 28-7 loss at home to UAB as a 7-point favorite last week. UTSA (3-3) has won three straight games after their 20-3 upset win over Rice as a 1-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Skip Holtz’s team has been very reliable coming off disappointing losses. Louisiana Tech has rebounded to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games after a double-digit loss at home. Additionally, the Bulldogs have rebounded to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a loss at home to a conference rival. Furthermore, Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. This is a good Bulldogs team whose fifteen returning starters last year is the most that Holtz has retained in his tenure in his six years with this program. The offense generated only 258 yards last week against the Blazers — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not gaining at least 275 yards in their last game while also covering the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last contest. The offense is led by junior quarterback J’mar Smith who is the returning starting quarterback in Holtz’s tenure at Louisiana Tech. He is leading an offense that is averaging 260 passing YPG (40th in the FBS) — and he should find success against this Roadrunners defense that is 95th in the nation by allowing opponents to average 244.2 passing YPG. The Bulldogs churned out 417 yards in Death Valley against LSU which was the most any team has gained against the Tigers all season — so this offense should be able to play better tonight. The Louisiana Tech defense is also solid as they are holding their opponents to average -39 YPG below their season average. Overall, the Bulldogs are outgaining their opponents by +58.4 net YPG. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road. UTSA has won three straight games against Texas State, UTEP and then Rice last week — but these three opponents are a combined 0-14 in their other games against FBS opponents. The Roadrunners are doing little to move the football even against this weak opponents. They rank 122nd in the nation by scoring only 19.8 PPG — and they also rank 129th in the FBS by averaging just 250.5 total YPG. UTSA has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two straight games against conference rivals — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, the Roadrunners have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a game where no more than 24 combined points were scored. They only generated 178 yards of offense against the Owls but benefitted from a +4 net turnover margin to help them eke out that game. But UTSA is just 0-4-2 ATS in their last 6 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. The Roadrunners defense played well in that upset win as they held the Owls to just 222 yards of offense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after not allowing more than 250 yards while also failing to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 14 points. UTSA returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The biggest question for QB Smith entering the season was whether he could improve his passing proficiency to be more in line with past Bulldogs teams under Holtz. Smith has met this challenge this year — the Louisiana Tech offense should be able to generate plenty of points against this Roadrunners defense. Expect the Bulldogs to bounce-back with a decisive win on the road against an overrated UTSA team. 25* CFB Conference USA Game of the Year with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (163) minus the points versus the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (164). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (198) plus the points versus the Georgia At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (198) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (197). THE SITUATION: LSU (5-1) looks to bounce-back from their 27-19 upset loss at Florida last Saturday as a 1-point underdog. Georgia (6-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 41-13 win over Vanderbilt as a 26-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: LSU was embarking on a potential game winning drive until quarterback Joe Burrow threw an interception that was returned for a 25-yard touchdown with just 1:45 minutes left in the fourth quarter. The Tigers went from needing just a field goal to win that game to suffering their first loss of the season. But the good news for head coach Ed Ogeron’s team is that they can still likely reach the College Football Playoffs if they win out the rest of their games — but they have no margin for error in this contest. LSU should be fired up to redeem themselves from their upset loss last week. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. Burrow has improved the LSU offense after transferring from Ohio State — the Tigers are scoring 38.0 PPG at home while generating 439.0 total YPG. LSU is 3-0 at home with an average winning margin of +25.7 net PPG while outgaining these opponents by +106.0 net YPG. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after playing their last two games against conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against SEC foes. LSU has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the month of October. Georgia passed for 341 yards last week in their victory over the Commodores — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to pass for at least 280 yards. The Bulldogs have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win by at least five touchdowns against a conference rival. Furthermore, Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after winning their last three games against SEC opponents — including to fail to cover the point spread in three of these last four occasions. And while the Bulldogs have scored at least 38 points in all their games this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 37 points in four straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Things have gone pretty easy for Georgia this season — but this is a tough assignment to remain undefeated by playing in Death Valley against an angry Tigers team. Expect a close game. 10* CFB Georgia-LSU CBS-TV Special with the LSU Tigers (198) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (197). Best of luck for us — Frank.Bulldogs (197). THE SITUATION: LSU (5-1) looks to bounce-back from their 27-19 upset loss at Florida last Saturday as a 1-point underdog. Georgia (6-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 41-13 win over Vanderbilt as a 26-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: LSU was embarking on a potential game winning drive until quarterback Joe Burrow threw an interception that was returned for a 25-yard touchdown with just 1:45 minutes left in the fourth quarter. The Tigers went from needing just a field goal to win that game to suffering their first loss of the season. But the good news for head coach Ed Ogeron’s team is that they can still likely reach the College Football Playoffs if they win out the rest of their games — but they have no margin for error in this contest. LSU should be fired up to redeem themselves from their upset loss last week. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. Burrow has improved the LSU offense after transferring from Ohio State — the Tigers are scoring 38.0 PPG at home while generating 439.0 total YPG. LSU is 3-0 at home with an average winning margin of +25.7 net PPG while outgaining these opponents by +106.0 net YPG. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after playing their last two games against conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against SEC foes. LSU has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the month of October. Georgia passed for 341 yards last week in their victory over the Commodores — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to pass for at least 280 yards. The Bulldogs have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win by at least five touchdowns against a conference rival. Furthermore, Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after winning their last three games against SEC opponents — including to fail to cover the point spread in three of these last four occasions. And while the Bulldogs have scored at least 38 points in all their games this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 37 points in four straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Things have gone pretty easy for Georgia this season — but this is a tough assignment to remain undefeated by playing in Death Valley against an angry Tigers team. Expect a close game. 10* CFB Georgia-LSU CBS-TV Special with the LSU Tigers (198) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (197). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Rice Owls (196) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (195). THE SITUATION: Rice (1-5) looks to bounce-back from a 20-3 upset loss to UTSA as a 1-point favorite. UAB (4-1) has won three in a row with their 28-7 upset win at Louisiana Tech as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: Rice has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset loss to a conference opponent as a home favorite. And while the Owls have not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after only covering the point spread once in their last four games. Rice has also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games for losing four or five of their last six games. Don’t blame the Owls defense for that loss to the Roadrunners as they held them to just 178 yards of offense. Rice has then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. It was a -4 net turnover margin the did in the Owls in that contest — and that came after they committed three turnovers and the lost the turnover battle in their previous game at Wake Forest. The Owls have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after enduring a -4 or worse net turnover margin — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 36 games after losing the turnover battle in two straight games. This team will keep fighting in the first season of new head coach Mike Bloomgren who is looking to establish a similar physical program like the one where he served as the offensive coordinator at Stanford. Rice has covered the point spread in 44 of their last 67 home games as the underdog. UAB has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning four of their last five games. The Blazers are due for a letdown playing their second game on the road after pulling that upset. UAB has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after a win on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 20 road games after a victory over a conference opponent. And in their last 7 road games after an upset victory over a conference rival as an underdog of at least 6 points, the Blazers have failed to cover the point spread in all 7 games. This team played great on the defensive side of the football — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Moving forward, UAB has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. And in their last 24 road games as the favorite, the Blazers have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of these contests. 

FINAL TAKE: Rice are big home underdogs of at least two touchdowns in this game. UAB does not have the cache to reliably cover point spreads like this on the road — and the Owls should respond with a strong effort after their disappointing result last week. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Kickoff with the Rice Owls (196) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (195). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (103) minus the point(s) versus the New York Giants (104). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (2-3) has lost two straight games after their 23-21 loss at home to Minnesota last week as a 3.5-point favorite. New York (1-4) has also lost two in a row after their hearts were broken by Graham Gano’s 63-yard field goal which allowed the Panthers to steal a 33-31 victory in Carolina as a 7-point home favorite over the Giants.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: The reigning Super Bowl Champions will be playing with a sense of desperation in this game playing on a short week after losing their last two games. As this team showed last year, they play their best football with their backs against the wall. And this is a gut check moment for this team with the injuries on offense with running backs Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles out along with their All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson now added to the injury list this morning with an ankle injury. But the strength of this Eagles team remains their depth along with their outstanding play on lines of scrimmage — and I find this component to be critical to level their record at 3-3 against this struggling Giants team. This team is still playing quality football — they have only lost these last two games by 5 combined points. Even with these injuries on offense, the Eagles generated 364 yards of offense against an angry Vikings’ defense that was embarrassed in their previous game against the Rams — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. The Philly defense gave up 298 passing yards to Minnesota — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Eagles are still playing stout on the defensive side of the football as they are allowing only 20.8 PPG which is 7th in the NFL. This defense ranks second in the league by only allowing 66.4 rushing YPG — and opposing rushers are averaging 2.78 YPC. This should help them play well on this short week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on Thursday Night Football. Philadelphia has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of October — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against fellow NFC opponents. Furthermore, the Eagles are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 trips to the Meadowlands to face the Giants. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The state of the Giants defense is a concern as they are allowing 124.4 rushing YPG which ranks 27th in the NFL. Those 31 points they scored against the Panthers were the first time that the Giants reached the 30-point threshold in their last 37 games. But this remains an unbalanced offense even with rookie Saquon Barkley as they are scoring only 20.8 PPG which is 23rd in the NFL while averaging just 75.6 rushing YPG which ranks 28th in the league. With tight end Evan Engram not yet recovered from his knee injury, quarterback Eli Manning has only three viable targets in the passing game in Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard along with Barkley out of the backfield. This lack of diversity should help defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz to dial up a good defensive game plan. Back at home in the Meadowlands, the Giants are scoring only 16.5 PPG while averaging just 311.5 total YPG. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 home games as an underdog getting up to 3 points.

FINAL TAKE: In this gut check game played on a short week for both teams, coaching and team chemistry will play important roles in making small differences in this game. The defending Super Bowl Champions have a significant advantage in both those intangibles than this Giants’ team that has seen their internal squabbles about Manning’s declining skills go public. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia Eagles (103) minus the point(s) versus the New York Giants (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (106) minus the points versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders (105). THE SITUATION: TCU (3-2) looks to build off their 17-14 win over Iowa State back on September 29th as an 11-point favorite. Texas Tech (3-2) looks to rebound from their 42-34 loss to West Virginia as a 3.5-point favorite back on September 29th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS MINUS THE POINTS: TCU has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. Head coach Gary Patterson’s team needs to do a better job protecting the football as they have lost the turnover battle in four straight contests. They have endured a -2 net turnover or worse turnover in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after suffering a -2 net turnover margin in at least two straight games. Patterson’s teams at TCU have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a bye week. They stay at home where they scoring 33.3 PPG while outscoring their visitors by +13.0 PPG and outgaining them by +133.3 net YPG. The Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. This is a team that entered the year with high expectations but turnovers derailed them in their loss to Ohio State and then Texas in back-to-back games. But now they host a Red Raiders team that has forced only seven turnovers — with seven of those takeaways occurring against an FCS team in Lamar. The Red Raiders had a -3 net turnover margin in their loss to the Mountaineers which ruined their 463 yards of offense that they accumulated against their defense. Texas Tech has gained at least 486 yards in all five of their games — but not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after gaining at least 405 yards in each of their last five contests. The Red Raiders have the best statistical offense in the nation as they average 591.4 total YPG based off a passing attack that averages 407.6 passing YPG. But they will be facing a stout Patterson Horned Frogs defense that is 12th in the nation in total defense (303.6 total YPG) while also ranking 22nd in the FBS by allowing only 178.0 passing YPG. But the Texas Tech defense remains a big weakness for Cliff Kingsbury’s team as they are allowing 447.6 total YPG (108th in the FBS) due to a porous pass defense that is surrendering 301.2 passing YPG (121st in the FBS). TCU held the Cyclones to just 3.53 Yards-Per-Play last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 3.75 YPP in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are dealing with quarterback injuries. The latest news for TCU is that their sophomore QB Shawn Robinson has been upgraded to probable with a shoulder injury but he still might not start the game in lieu of Pennsylvania transfer Michael Collins being under center for the Horned Frogs. The Red Raiders’ starting freshman quarterback Alan Bowman has been downgraded to doubtful with the lung injury he suffered last week which means sophomore Jeff Duffey will get the start. Duffey threw two of the offenses’ three interceptions last week. It is Texas Tech that is more dependent on their QB play so these collective issues help the Horned Frogs. 10* CFB Texas Tech-TCU ESPN Special with the TCU Horned Frogs (106) minus the points versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Arkansas State Red Wolves (102) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (101). THE SITUATION: Appalachian State (3-1) has won three straight games with their 52-7 win over South Alabama back on September 25th. Arkansas State (3-2) looks to rebound from their 28-21 upset loss at Georgia Southern back on September 29th as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED WOLVES PLUS THE POINTS: Arkansas State lost the turnover battle against the Eagles in their last game while seeing three of their drives stall after failed 4th down conversion attempts. The Red Wolves outgained Georgia Southern by +82 net yards. Arkansas State has not covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The Red Wolves have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games coming off a bye week. This is a team returned twelve starters from last year’s group that finished 6-2 in Sun Belt play before losing to Middle Tennessee by just a 35-30 score in the Camellia Bowl. They are led by senior quarterback Justice Hansen who completed 38 of 50 passes for 376 yards against a talented Georgia Southern secondary. Arkansas State is tough at home where they have only lost once in conference play since 2015. The Red Wolves have won seven of their last eight opening games in Sun Belt Conference play on their home field. So far this season, Arkansas State is 2-0 with a +17.0 net PPG scoring margin while outgaining their opponents by +231.5 net YPG. This team has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. Appalachian State has won three straight games after beginning their season with that heartbreaking loss in overtime at Penn State. That high profile game may have the Mountaineers a bit overvalued in this situation — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after winning three straight games. Appalachian State went into halftime with a convincing 42-7 lead over the Jaguars in their last game but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after owning a halftime lead of at least 17 points in their last game. The Mountaineers’ spread rushing attack has helped them out-rush their last three opponents by +235.7 rushing YPG — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after outrushing their last three games by at least +125 rushing YPG. Arkansas State will benefit from the extra days of preparation for this unique offense. The Red Wolves did allow
348 rushing yards to Georgia Southern which may be scaring some bettors off. But Arkansas State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after allowing at least 300 rushing yards.

FINAL TAKE: Arkansas State’s other loss this season was at Alabama — so we can give them a pass on that one. This is a must-win game for them after losing to Georgia Southern in their last game — but head coach Blake Anderson has a team that can very much win the Sun Belt Conference title. They should play very well in this contest against an Appalachian State team that has not been challenged in games against Charlotte, Gardner Webb, and South Alabama after that game with the Nittany Lions. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year with the Arkansas State Red Wolves (102) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (478) minus the points versus the Washington Redskins (477). THE SITUATION: Washington (2-1) returns to the field after their bye week after upsetting Green Bay two weeks ago by a 31-17 score as a 2.5-point underdog. New Orleans (3-1) enters this game coming off their 33-18 win at New York against the Giants as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Skins are likely to suffer a letdown in this game as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory. Washington has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset win by at least two touchdowns as a home underdog. The extra week to rest and prepare is not likely to help the Skins considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a bye week. This Washington team has a good defense — but stopping the run is an issue that opponents with balanced offenses can exploit. The Skins were last in the NFL last season by allowing 134.1 rushing YPG. This season, the rush defense looks better on paper because they are only allowing 91 rushing YPG. However, opponents are only averaging 20 rushing attempts per game. The 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry average Washington is allowing this season is exactly the same mark they allowed last year. The Saints are seeing the return of running back Mark Ingram at just the right time after he served a four-game suspension. Additionally, the Skins have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games when playing on Monday Night Football. New Orleans should build off the moment of their three-game winning straight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win on the road. The Saints have paid off bettors in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. New Orleans returns home after playing their last two games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after playing their last two games on the road. The Saints have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 28 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. This is a good time to back New Orleans as well as they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games in the month of October.

FINAL TAKE: Expect the Saints to simply have too much on offense against this solid but unspectacular Washington team. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the New Orleans Saints (478) minus the points versus the Washington Redskins (477). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (475) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (476). THE SITUATION: Dallas (2-2) looks to build off their 26-24 win over Detroit yesterday as a 2.5-point favorite. Houston (1-3) earned their first victory of the season last Sunday with their 37-34 win in overtime at Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys got their ground game cranked up against the Lions. Running back Ezekiel Elliott ran the ball 25 times for 152 yards to the lead for the Dallas offense- The Cowboys have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game (although don’t be surprised if Elliott a nice game catching the ball out of the backfield). Dallas tends to raise their level of play in the month of October under head coach Jason Garrett — they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in October. Now the Cowboys go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Dallas defense is underrated — they are allowing only 20.0 PPG along with just 294.0 total YPG on the road so far this season. They are third in the NFL in sacks led by linebacker DeMarcus Lawrence who leads the league with his 5.5 sacks. He should feast on this terrible Texans offensive line that has allowed 45 hits to the quarterback which is the most in the NFL. Deshaun Watson has been sacked 17 times this year which is the second most in the NFL. He did pass for 375 yards while leading his offense to 466 total yards against the suspect Colts’ defense — but Houston has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. The Texans got a jolt of confidence by earning their first win of the season — but they have then failed to cover in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up victory. Houston has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: While the Texans entered the season as a trendy dark horse Super Bowl team, bettors have not seen to have caught up to the fact that their weaknesses on their offensive line and defense most likely will limit what this team can do this season. Dallas is a solid football team with a good opportunity to win this game outright. 10* NFL Dallas-Huston NBC-TV Special with the Dallas Cowboys (475) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (469) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (470). THE SITUATION: Arizona has lost two straight games after their 20-17 loss to Seattle last Sunday as a +3.5-point underdog. San Francisco (1-3) looks to rebound from a 29-27 loss in Los Angeles to the Chargers as +10.5-point underdogs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Arizona has bounced-back to cover the points spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home. Arizona remains the last remaining winless team in the NFL — but they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after losing their last two contests. They will certainly be playing with a level of desperation. And this team can find confidence in the encouraging play of quarterback Josh Rosen. The rookie completed 15 of 27 passes for 180 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions last week — and his ability to hit tight windows with his strong arm gives this offense a new dynamic that simply was not there with Sam Bradford. The improving hamstring of wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald helps matters as well. The Cardinals need to do a better job of protecting the football as they have lost the turnover battle in their last two games. Arizona has covered the point spread in 47 of their last 76 games after suffering a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. San Francisco got a good game out of their second-year quarterback C.J. Beathard who passed for 298 yards while leading an offense that generated 364 yards of offense. But the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Arizona will benefit from getting recent tape on Beathard from last week. San Fran has issues on defense — after giving up 35 first-half points to Kansas City two weeks ago, they surrendered another 17 points in the first 24 minutes against the Chargers. The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after giving up at least 17 first-half points in two straight games. San Francisco returns home after playing their last two games on the road. But the Niners have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after playing their last two games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona is playing solid football — they have lost their last two games by just five combined points. This should be another close game that the Cardinals can win with Rosen under center. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Arizona Cardinals (469) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (468) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (467). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-2) looks to build off their 29-27 win over the 49ers last week as a 10.5-point favorite. Oakland (1-3) earned their first victory of the season last week with their 45-42 overtime win at home against Cleveland.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders have been a hot mess under head coach Jon Gruden — they have been consistently disorganized while players and coaches are making too many mental mistakes. They were given a few gifts from the referees to survive that game with the Browns. But Oakland has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win. The Raiders are generating plenty of offense — QB Derek Carr passed for 437 yards last week to lean an offense that gained 565 total yards. Carr passes for 325 yards in his previous game — but the Raiders have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 300 passing yards in two straight games. That offense has suffered a big blow with the need to place their veteran left tackle Donald Penn on Injured Reserve. Carr has not been nearly as effective when playing on the road where he has lost eight of his last nine games while committing 13 turnovers. While the Raiders may have a large contingent of fans at this game with it being played on Los Angeles where there is not a ton of love for the Chargers, this is still an unfamiliar playing environment for Carr. The Oakland offense will not have much room for error considering how terrible their defense is — they are allowing 30.7 PPG and the 123 points they have allowed is worst in the NFL. Their defense without Khalil Mack is last in both sacks and hits on the quarterback. Philip Rivers will have a clean pocket with all the time he needs to pick apart this Raiders’ secondary. Rivers enjoys a 15:2 touchdown to interception ratio over his last six starts going back to last season. The Chargers should play well in this game as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while LA allowed 288 passing yards to the 49ers, they are then 3-1-1 ATS after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Chargers are playing high-scoring games with all four of their contests seeing at least combined 51 points scored. But Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after seeing at least 50 combined points scored in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games after a game where both teams scored at least 24 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders just surrendered 42 points to Baker Mayfield who was making his first professional start. Mayfield may have tons of potential — but Philip Rivers is a bad mad with plenty of healthy weapons right now. While the Chargers do not enjoy much of a favorable home crowd, these critics fail to appreciate that familiarity plays a large role in creating home field advantage. 25* NFL AFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (468) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (467). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (460) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Denver Broncos (459). New York (1-3) looks to snap a three-game losing streak with their 31-12 loss in Jacksonville yesterday. Denver (2-2) looks to rebound from their 27-23 loss to Kansas City on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): The Broncos face a difficult situation traveling east to play in the 1 PM ET slot of games after playing on a short week. As it is, Denver is just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games when playing on a Sunday after a game for Monday Night Football. The Broncos have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. Denver did generate 385 yards of offense in that game — but they are just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. QB Case Keenum is second in the NFL with six interceptions and he has not thrown a touchdown pass in three weeks. His 60.1 Passer Rating is third from the bottom of all NFL starting QBs. The Broncos defense surrendered 446 yards to the Chiefs in that game — and they are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. This is Denver’s just second game away from home this year — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on the road. New York will be desperate for a win after losing three straight games. They do return home to the Meadowlands for just the second time this season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home. The offense only generated 178 yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. It has been a trial by fire for Sam Darnold who played three games in the first eleven days of the season before then traveling to play the elite Jaguars defense last week. Don’t be surprised if the rookie steps up to play his best game of the season this afternoon. The Jets defense should play better as well — they rank in the top six in the league by holding their opponents to just 5.2 Yards-Per-Play and they have also forced 10 turnovers. New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Look for the Jets’ defense to step up and help New York end their three-game losing streak. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Kickoff with the New York Jets (460) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Denver Broncos (459). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (458) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (457). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (1-3) looks to bounce-back from their 22-0 shutout loss at Green Bay as an 8.5-point underdog. Tennessee (3-1) has won three straight games after their 26-23 upset win over Philadelphia in overtime as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen was even worse on the tape that his stats indicate. He completed just 16 of 33 passes for 151 yards with two interceptions. The rookie is going to be inconsistent — but remember how good he was two weeks ago at Minnesota against a stout Vikings defense where he completed an efficient 15 of 22 passes for 196 yards with a touchdown pass and no picks. The Bills should play closer to the one that made the playoffs last season as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Buffalo is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after not gaining at least 250 yards in their last game. Returning home will help after playing their last two games on the road — and the Bills have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 69 home games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. Allen should be helped by LeSean McCoy who continues to see his injured ribs improve — he will be running against a mediocre Titans’ run defense that is allowing 118 rushing YPG along with 4.9 rushing Yards-Per-Carry. This Buffalo defense needs to play closer to the team that stymied the Vikings in Minnesota two weeks ago. The Bills surrendered 423 yards last week to the Packers — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Tennessee risks being overconfident in this game as they are favored for the first time all season. The Titans have pulled off three straight upset victories — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win as an underdog. Tennessee averaged 6.11 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have fled to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight road games after averaging at least 8.0 YPP. The Titans struggle to move the ball away from home as they are scoring only 14.5 PPG on the road while averaging 284.5 total YPG. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, the Titans are an awful 9-26-3 ATS in their last 38 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Look for Tennessee to be flat in this contest after pulling off three straight upsets. The Bills should play much better than their uninspired effort last week. 25* NFL AFC Underdog of the Month with the  Buffalo Bills (458) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (457). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (349) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (350). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (5-0) remained unbeaten this season when they soundly defeated Stanford at home last week by a 38-17 score as a 4.5-point favorite over the Cardinal. Virginia Tech (3-1) looks to build off their 31-14 upset win at Duke last Saturday as a 6.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOKIES PLUS THE POINTS: The Irish might not have been able to avoid the talk this week that Stanford was most difficult opponent remaining on their schedule — so they may suffer an emotional letdown after registering their second victory over a team ranked in the Top Ten at the time (along with Michigan whom they defeated to begin the season). As it is, the Fighting Irish have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win at home. Notre Dame outgained Stanford by +320 net yards after outgaining the Demon Deacons by +168 net yards in Wake Forest in their previous contest. But the Fighting Irish have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after outgaining their last two opponents by an average of at least +175 net YPG. Notre Dame held the Cardinal to just 229 yards in their last win last week —and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 275 yards. The Irish did not commit a turnover in that game either — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games after not committing a turnover in their last contest. Now Notre Dame goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Virginia Tech will be playing “Enter Sandman” for this nationally televised night game in Blacksburg where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Hokies have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 home games as the underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when getting 3.5 to 7 points. This Virginia Tech should enter this game with renewed confidence after redeeming themselves from that upset loss two weeks ago against Old Dominion by shocking the Blue Devils on the road last week. The Hokies have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after an upset victory as a road underdog. The team lost their incumbent starting quarterback Josh Jackson to a season-ending knee injury in that loss to the Monarchs but head coach Justin Fuente brought in a capable backup in the offseason in Ryan Willis. The transfer from Kansas completed 17 of 27 passes for 332 yards with three TD passes and no interceptions against the Duke defense last week. Virginia Tech has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Hokies have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams outside the ACC.

FINAL TAKE: While the pundits may think the Irish’s path to the College Playoff will is a cinch, that is likely much easier said than done. Expect a close game. 20* CFB Notre Dame-Virginia Tech ABC-TV Special with the Virginia Tech Hokies (349) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (350). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (382) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (381). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (5-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 24-10 win over South Carolina last Saturday as a pick ‘em. Texas A&M (3-2) has won two of their last three games with their 24-17 win over Arkansas last Saturday as a 20-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: The Wildcats look for their best start since 1950 in their football program’s history. But this is just their second game away from home this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Texas A&M has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games played on grass. Kentucky benefited from a +3 net turnover margin against the Gamecocks last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after enjoying at least a +3 net turnover margin in their last game. The Wildcats have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. Kentucky is led by junior running back Benny Snell, Jr. who leads the FBS by averaging 127.8 rushing YPG — but he is now facing a defense that is limiting their opponents to just 85 rushing YPG. Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win at home — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, the Aggies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. First-year head coach has immediately changed the culture in College Station with the sixteen returning starters he inherited from last year’s 7-6 team. The two Texas A&M losses were against perhaps the best two teams in the nation in Alabama and Clemson — and they only lost to the Tigers by 2 points. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: It might be surprising to some that an undefeated team finds themselves as an underdog getting more than 4 points. Trust the signals that the oddsmakers are sending us. 20* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Texas A&M Aggies (382) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (381). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (353) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (354). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (3-1) takes the field again after their 23-20 win in overtime over Eastern Michigan two Saturdays ago as a 10-point favorite. Boise State (3-1) enters this game coming off a 34-14 win at Wyoming as a 15.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS PLUS THE POINTS: San Diego State has covered the point spread in 13 of 18 games after a straight-up win. The Aztecs have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight victories where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. This team is ravaged with injuries on offense with both starting quarterback Christian Chapman and starting running back Juwan Washington out indefinitely with injuries. But in head coach Rocky Long, we trust — especially when has had an extra week to prepare. Junior Ryan Agnew has been serviceable at quarterback since that Chapman injury about a month ago and the Aztecs always have talent at running back. The defense is the straw that stirs the drink for San Diego State under Long — and they are allowing only 21.5 PPG along with just 337.0 total YPG this season. The Aztecs are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games in the month of October — and they are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games in conference play. Additionally, San Diego State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Aztecs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. And while they have only covered the point spread once this season, they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Boise State seized a 24-0 lead at halftime last week against the Cowboys — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. And while they outgained Wyoming by +211 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 net yards. Despite the aura of their blue turf at their home stadium, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 52 range. Furthermore, Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Aztecs may have injuries — but giving them around two touchdowns in points is simply too much to pass up. Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in four of their last five meetings with San Diego State despite upsetting them last year by a 31-14 score as a 4-point road dog. Expect a close game. 25* CFB ESPN-U Game of the Month with the San Diego State Aztecs (353) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (354). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (324) plus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (323). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (2-3) looks to bounce-back from a 45-14 loss at Central Florida last Saturday as a 13-point underdog. Syracuse (4-1) suffered their first loss of the season with their 27-23 loss at Clemson last week as a 24-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Orange may have a hard time picking themselves up from the mat after that deflating loss to the Tigers considering they had a great opportunity to pull that upset (for the second straight season) with the injury to their new starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Syracuse blew a 16-7 halftime lead. The Orange are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival. Syracuse was dominated in the yardage battle with Clemson outgaining them by a 469 to 311 yardage mark — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after being outgained by at least 125 yards in their last game. The Orange did benefit from a +2 net turnover margin in that game — it was the fifth straight game where they won the turnover battle. That is very difficult to maintain so don’t be surprised if the Regression Gods pay a visit to this Syracuse team. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after winning the turnover battle in at least three straight games. Moving forward, the Orange are 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 7 trips to Pittsburgh, Syracuse has failed to cover the point spread 5 times. Pittsburgh has lost two straight games with that 31-point defeat at the hands of UCF last week. But they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to score at least 20 points. The Panthers have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. And while the Knights outgained them by a whopping 294 yards in that blowout win, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after being outgained by at least -125 yards in their last game. Head coach Pat Narduzzi’s team has been on the road for their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a two-game road trip. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games as the underdog. To connect the dots on the turnover angle for this contest, while the Panthers have only forced one turnover in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to force more than one turnover in two straight contests. Pitt has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in ACC play.

FINAL TAKE: With Notre Dame on deck, the Panthers need to take care of business in this game. This team did upset a good Georgia Tech team at home earlier in this season — so this is a dangerous team at home. 25* CFB ACC Underdog of the Month with the Pittsburgh Panthers (324) plus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (323). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (398) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (397). THE SITUATION: Texas (4-1) has won four straight games with their 19-14 win at Kansas State last week as an 8.5-point favorite. Oklahoma (5-0) remained undefeated last week with their 66-33 win over Baylor as 21.5-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS PLUS THE POINTS: Texas has defeated two ranked teams this season in USC and TCU by a combined 38 points — so this is a group that will be confident and capable against the Sooners. The Longhorns have covered the point spread in 5 straight meetings with Oklahoma. They are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the month of October — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a neutral field while also covering the points spread in 9 of their last 11 games on a neutral field with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. Furthermore, Texas is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Head coach Tom Herman has proven himself a great coach when his team is the underdog as his teams have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games as the dog — while pulling the straight-up upset eight times. Furthermore, Texas has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. The Sooners have put up impressive numbers — but those gaudy stats should be taken with a grain of salt considering that their opponents have won only one time in their eleven combined games against teams from Power-Five conferences. The Oklahoma defense is a cause for concern as well after they allowed the Bears to generate 493 yards of offense. The Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Furthermore, Oklahoma has tended to underachieve when playing on neutral fields. The Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on a neutral field with the Total set in the 56.5 to 62 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games played on a neutral field as a favorite in the 7.5 to 14 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Red River Rivalry is played on a neutral field in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. The last four meetings between these two teams have been decided by 7 points or less. Expect another close game — which makes taking the points with the dangerous Longhorns very valuable. 10* CFB Texas-Oklahoma Fox-TV Special with the Texas Longhorns (398) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (397). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the BYU Cougars (312) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (311). THE SITUATION: BYU (3-2) looks to bounce-back from their 35-7 loss at Washington last Saturday as an +18.5-point underdog. Utah State (3-1) has won three straight games after their 42-32 win over Air Force as a 9.5-point favorite back on September 22nd.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: BYU should bounce-back with a strong effort against their in-state rival. Not one have the Cougars rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss but they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points. BYU was stymied by the strong Huskies defense — but they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring less than 20 points in their last game. The Cougars are likely to get two key members of their defense back with linebacker Zayne Anderson and safety Dayan Ghanwoloku returning the to the field. Without those two starters, BYU surrendered 464 yards to Washington — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win. The Aggies passed for 356 yards in that game while averaging 7.89 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP while they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Utah State did give up 323 rushing yards to the Falcons spread triple option attack — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards. Head coach Matt Wells team has failed to cover the point spread in a whopping 14 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. The Aggies have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games as an underdog of 3 points or less. And in their last 7 games in the month of October, Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: This is a critical game for BYU who need this win to keep them in good shape to become bowl eligible which is the primary goal for this independent that lacks a conference championship opportunity. The Cougars perhaps do not have as much passing for this rivalry as the Aggies — but they will be motivated with revenge from their upset 40-24 loss to Utah State as a small favorite last September. 25* CFB Friday Night ESPN2 Game of the Month with the BYU Cougars (312) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (301) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (302). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (1-3) has lost two straight games after their 37-34 loss in overtime at home to Houston on Sunday as a 1-point underdog. New England (2-2) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 38-7 blowout win over Miami on Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Rookie head coach Frank Reich made a questionable decision to go for it on 4th down on their side of the field in overtime which they failed to convert. That left just enough time left for Deshaun Watson to complete a pass to give his team the opportunity to kick the game-winning field goal. The Colts may very well wish they had the tie on their final record rather than a loss as the playoff race heats up — especially with more and more of these overtime games ending in ties given the shortening of the extra time to just ten minutes. But Reich’s aggressive decision may have served to galvanize the locker room around him which will pay dividends moving forward. As it is, Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games after a straight loss. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 3 points or less. Quarterback Andrew Luck has been outstanding so far this season after missing all of last year with his bevy of injuries. Luck completed 40 of 62 passes for 464 yards with four touchdown passes as he is almost single-handedly carrying this team. The Indianapolis defense did allow 466 total yards to the Texans as they averaged 6.05 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after they allowed at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Moving forward, the Colts have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing two straight games. Indy has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games the road — and they are a decisive 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games played on Thursday Night Football. New England got back to their winnings ways last week — but there are still concerns about this team. The offense lacks credible down-the-field targets — and tight end Rob Gronkowski is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. The offense is averaging only 337.2 total YPG — and the Patriots are being outgained by -10.2 net YPG this season. Despite reaching the Super Bowl last year, New England only outgained their opponents by +28.1 net YPG. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when listed as a favorite laying 7.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots are being asked to lay too many points on a short week. The Colts have lost two straight games but they those setbacks were by just seven combined points. Luck should help keep his team competitive and within single digits in this contest. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Indianapolis Colts (301) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (303) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (304). THE SITUATION: Tulsa (1-3) takes the field again after losing at Temple back two Thursdays ago in a 31-17 loss as a 6.5-point underdog. Houston (3-1) takes the field after blowing out FCS opponent Texas Southern by a 70-14 score two Saturdays ago as a 55-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN HURRICANES PLUS THE POINTS: Tulsa dominated the Owls at least on the stat sheet in that 14-point loss. The Golden Hurricanes won the first down battle by a 32-16 margin while also outgaining Temple by +103 net yards. Tulsa surrendered a 36-yard interception return for a touchdown along with a 50-yard interception return for a touchdown and those two defensive TDs were too much to overcome. Overall, the Golden Hurricanes suffered a -3 net turnover margin in that game — so protecting the football was certainly a point of emphasis in practice over the last two weeks for head coach Philip Montgomery. This Tulsa team suffered a 2-10 record last year — but that was a football team that had five net losses decided by one scoring possession which was the most in the nation. That Golden Hurricanes also was ravaged with injuries — so this roster is probably a lot closer to the talent of the group that finished 10-3 back in 2016 than the one that won only two games last season. Tulsa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Golden Hurricanes have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on the road — and this includes them covering the point spread in seven of their last eight road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Tulsa has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 games in the month of October, the Golden Hurricanes have covered the point spread 5 times. Houston (3-1) may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by at least 20 points. The Cougars passed for 386 yards in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the month of October. The Cougars have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in American Athletic Conference play.

FINAL TAKE: Houston suffered five upset losses last season so Major Applewhite’s team is certainly vulnerable despite playing at home as a favorite approaching three touchdowns. Tulsa has now lost thirteen of their last sixteen games — but they are much better than what that trend suggests. The Golden Hurricanes were one of those five teams to stun the Cougars last year so they will not lack for confidence in this game. Expect this contest to be closer than expected. 10* CFB Tulsa-Houston ESPN Special with the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (303) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (278) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (277). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (3-0) remained undefeated last week with their 38-27 win over San Francisco last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Denver (2-1) looks to bounce-back from their 27-14 loss at Baltimore as a 5.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: The Chiefs raced out to a 35-10 lead at halftime last week against the 49ers — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 54 games after leading by at least two touchdowns in their last game. The seeds of impending trouble for this team may have sown in the second-half of that contest as they were outscored by the 49ers by a 17-3 margin. Kansas City generated 384 yards in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Chiefs are struggling to find balance as they are averaging only 103 rushing YPG (just 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry) after only managing 77 yards on the ground against San Francisco. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. The Chiefs have scored at least 38 points in all three of their games so far this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points in each of their last three games. And while Mahomes has passed for 322 and 307 yards in his last two starts, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after passing for at least 300 yards in two straight games. While the Chiefs offense is clicking, the same cannot be said for their defense that ranks third to the bottom in the league in points allowed (30.7 PPG), total defense (474 YPG) and Yards-Per-Play Allowed (6.7 YPP). Denver has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in the first month of the season. This team has had this night circled on their calendar considering that they have lost five straight meetings with the Chiefs while also losing their last three opportunities to host Kansas City in Denver. They also were the first team to get first-hand experience against Watson as he made his first professional start last year on what resulted in a 27-24 win for the Chiefs back on December 31st. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 34 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The underdog has covered the point spread in 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams. The Kansas City offense is bound to come back to Earth at least somewhat — and the Chiefs defense and offensive line remain concerns. Expect the Broncos to play Kansas City very tough. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (278) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (275) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-1) enters this game coming off a 27-14 win at home hosting Denver last week as a 5.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (1-1-1) looks to build off their 30-27 upset win at Tampa Bay on Monday night as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: The Steelers struggle with consistency as of late — they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a straight-up win while also failing to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Pittsburgh is just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games played on a short week on a Sunday after playing on Monday Night Football. Their offense is getting a solid contribution from running back James Connor who has been pressed into duty given the holdout of Le’Veon Bell. But Connor has 70 touches already and risks losing steam without much help in the backfield — especially when playing on a short week. The absence of Bell has put more of the burden on the arm of Ben Roethlisberger who passed for 353 yards against the porous Buccaneers defense (that just made Mitchell Trubisky look like a Hall of Famer today). The Steelers are averaging 363 passing YPG in their first three games this season without Bell. But not only has Pittsburgh failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after averaging at least 275 passing YPG in their last three contests. This team has become sloppy under head coach Mike Tomlin as they are the most penalized team in the NFL entering Week Four by a wide margin with the next most penalized team committing nine fewer infractions. The Steel Curtain defense has also taken a step (or two) back in the wrong direction since losing Ryan Shazier at linebacker. Since he suffered that spinal injury last year, the Steelers have allowed their last ten opponents to score 28.8 PPG. Pittsburgh returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games. And in their last 4 games against fellow AFC North opponents, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread all 4 times. Baltimore lead the NFL in total defense by limiting their opponents to just 273.0 total YPG. But what might be surprising is that this team is fifth in the NFL by scoring 32.3 PPG. Going back to last season, the Ravens have scored at least 27 points in six of their last eight contests. Baltimore is a perfect 12 for 12 in the Red Zone in translating those opportunities into touchdowns. Quarterback Joe Flacco is having one of his best seasons as he clearly benefited from being healthy for training camp and the preseason. The veteran completed 25 of 40 passes last week for 277 yards — and the Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Head coach John Harbaugh’s team has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against fellow AFC North foes. Lastly, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 43 road games as an underdog getting no more than 3 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have an axe or two to grind with their arch rivals after the Steelers swept both games between these two teams. Baltimore might pull the upset outright — but taking the points will certainly be valuable in what should be a close game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (275) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (270) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (269). THE SITUATION: Oakland (0-3) is still looking for their first win of the season after they lost in Miami last week by a 28-20 score as a 3-point underdog. Cleveland (1-1-1) earned their first victory in two seasons last week with their 21-17 win over the New York Jets as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Oakland dominated that game with the Dolphins when looking at the statistics. They outgained Miami by a 434 to 373 yardage edge. They churned out 25 first downs while holding the Dolphins to only 13 first downs. The Raiders also controlled the clock for 38:31 minutes of the game. Those are good fundamentals moving forward which should produce good results — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after a game where they controlled Time of Possession for at least 34 minutes while also generating at least 24 first downs. Oakland should respond with a good effort as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread setback. It has been easy to criticize head coach Jon Gruden in his return to coaching as he has made some moves that deserve scrutiny. But the Raiders have also faced a very difficult schedule: the LA Rams, Denver Broncos and them the Dolphins last week have a combined 8-1 record entering Week Four. Furthermore, Oakland has been competitive in all these games as they have enjoyed second-half leads in all these games before suffering from letdowns in the 4th quarter. It was only in 2016 that quarterback Derek Carr tied an NFL record by engineering seven 4th quarter comebacks to win games — so these blown leads are a relatively new phenomenon for this Raiders’ quarterback. Carr is completing 76.6% of his passes so far this season. Cleveland is feeling as good about themselves in years after rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield came off the bench to rally the team from a 14-3 deficit to defeat the Jets on national television on Thursday Night Football. But traveling out west to make his first professional start will be a difficult assignment for Mayfield. The Browns are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. Cleveland has also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games as an underdog. The Browns benefited from a +3 net turnover margin in their win against the Jets who were also relying on a rookie quarterback in Sam Darnold. Cleveland has played their last two games Under the Total with the help of their stout defense. But the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing two straight games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Gruden has assembled a group of veterans on his roster who know full well this is a desperate moment for the team. The Raiders have a big edge over the Browns at quarterback in this game — and Cleveland has not felt what it was like to play a game after a victory since when Barack Obama was President. 25* National Football League Game of the Month with the Oakland Raiders (270) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (262) minus the points versus the New York Jets (261). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (2-1) looks to bounce-back from their 9-6 loss to Tennessee last week as a 10-point favorite. New York (1-2) looks to rebound from a 21-17 loss in Cleveland on Thursday Night Football as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville suffered a big emotional letdown last week after earning a small measure of revenge in their previous game against New England who defeated them in the AFC Championship Game. Quarterback Blake Bortles has improved — but it is evident that when he lowers his intensity, he becomes a below-average quarterback. The Jaguars managed only 232 yards of offense last week with Bortles passing for just 155 yards. Jacksonville should respond from that wake-up call last week. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread setback. Furthermore, the Jags have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards of offense. The team does look to get their star running back Leonard Fournette back for this game which will take some of the pressure off Bortles. This remains a team that is 2nd in the NFL in scoring defense by holding their opponents to just 14.7 PPG. They have allowed only three offensive touchdowns which is the fewest in the NFL. Jacksonville has also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against fellow AFC opponents. New York had a 14-point lead at halftime against the Browns but a -3 net turnover margin eventually led to their downfall. Now this team stays on the road for the second straight week where they are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They are still relying too much on a quarterback in Sam Darnold who is averaging 33 pass attempts per game. The rookie has showed flashes of brilliance but remains inexperienced. The Jets have also been slow starters this year as they have scored only 7 points in their three opening quarters this year — and that is a daunting number when facing this outstanding defense that becomes even more difficult when their opponents are playing from behind. Dealing with the Florida heat will also be an issue for this team that lacks depth. As it is, the Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played in the month of September. And in their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents, New York has failed to cover the point spread 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars’ defense always shows up — and that spells trouble for Darnold and this subpar Jets’ offense. But with Fournette returning and Bortles embarrassed from last week’s game, this should be a blowout. 20* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Jacksonville Jaguars (262) minus the points versus the New York Jets (261). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (258) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (257). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (1-2) enters this game coming off a 27-6 upset win in Minnesota where they were big 16.5-point underdogs. Green Bay (1-1-1) looks to rebound from their 31-17 upset loss at Washington last Sunday as 2.5-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Bills caught the Vikings napping last week as they might have been looking ahead to their Thursday night showdown with Minnesota. Buffalo played very hard to earn that victory — but it is difficult to maintain that high level of focus and energy for two straight weeks. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after a double-digit victory as a road underdog getting at least 6 points. Buffalo has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games after a win by at least three touchdowns. Furthermore, while the Bills raced out to that 27-0 halftime lead to shellshocked Minnesota, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. This will be rookie Josh Allen’s first professional start in a hostile environment. He leads an offense that is scoring less than 17 PPG. And while the defense played well last week, they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. Green Bay surrendered 386 yards of offense last week in their loss to the Skins. The Packers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 59 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Aaron Rodgers did participate in more practice this week with his sprained ACL being an injury that will get better over time. He should be better this week — and he has won eleven of his twelve starts at home against AFC opponents unfamiliar with him and Lambeau Field. Rodgers has not thrown an interception this season — and he owns a career 60-15-1 record at Lambeau. While those straight-up numbers do not take into account the point spread, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Packers have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay should bounce-back with a strong effort with the benefit of home-field advantage again at Lambeau Field. Buffalo will struggle to score enough points to keep up with Rodgers. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Green Bay Packers (258) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (257). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (252) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (251). THE SITUATION: New England (1-2) looks to bounce-back from their 26-10 loss at Detroit as a 7-point favorite last Sunday night. Miami (3-0) remains undefeated last week with their 28-20 win over Oakland.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England has endured two straight upset losses — but those games were on the road with some extenuating circumstances. That first loss was in Jacksonville with the Jaguars looking to avenge a playoff loss to New England — and then last week’s game was against a desperate Lions team that was winless and coached by their former defensive coordinator, Matt Patricia. Returning home should help the Patriots right their ship. This team is an incredible 43-19-1 ATS in their last 63 games after a straight-up loss and they have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. New England lost that game with the Lions because they were able to successfully play keep-away — the Patriots only had the ball for 20:45 minutes of that game. That explains why New England managed only 209 yards of offense — but they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 32 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And while New England allowed 414 yards in that contest, they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after allowing at least 350 yards. Furthermore, the Patriots have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC East opponents. And in their last 53 games at home, New England is a dominant 35-16-2 ATS. Miami entered this season under-the-radar as they felt they improved the culture of their football team by letting some of their big ego players go elsewhere. The Dolphins defeated the Raiders last week despite being outgained by -61 net yards. The Miami defense surrendered 434 yards in that game including 345 passing yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 27 games after allowing at least 250 yards in their last game. QB Ryan Tannehill completed 17 of 23 passes for 289 yards in that win but the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Now this team goes back not the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 contests. Furthermore, Miami is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games against fellow AFC East opponents. The Dolphins have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight trips to New England.

FINAL TAKE: This is a must-win game for the Patriots who cannot afford to fall three games behind the Dolphins in the AFC East standings. New England will also remember their 27-20 upset loss as a 10-point favorite the last time these two teams played on a Thursday night last December 11th. The home team has covered the point spread in this series in 11 of the last 12 encounters between these two football teams. 25* NFL AFC East Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (252) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (251). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (161) minus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (162). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (4-0) enters this Big Ten showdown coming off a 49-6 win over Tulane last Saturday as a 37.5-point favorite. Penn State (4-0) comes off a 63-24 blowout win at Illinois as a 25.5-point favorite last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio State should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Buckeyes quarterback Dwayne Haskins completed 21 of 24 passes against the Green Wave (who just upset Memphis last night) which resulted in 304 yards with five touchdown passes. Haskins offers the Buckeyes a power passing attack which they did not have last year with quarterback J.T. Barrett. Ohio State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 325 yards in their last game. Haskins offers the Buckeyes a more dynamic weapon than what the Buckeyes had last year when they defeated Penn State by a 39-38 score. Ohio State dominated the line of scrimmage in that game by winning the yardage battle by a 529 to 283 margin. But an opening 97-yard kickoff return for a touchdown along with two turnovers helped the Nittany Lions race out to a 28-10 lead in the second quarter before the Buckeyes completed their successful rally. That game was at the Horseshoe in Columbus — but Ohio State is 30-16-1 ATS in their last 47 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Buckeyes have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 31 road games when favored by 7 points or less. Ohio State has not turned the ball over in their last three games which is a good sign for them for this rematch — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after not turning the ball over in at least two straight games. Penn State struggled last week against a subpar Fighting Illini team. They were trailing by a 24-21 score at the 10:36 mark of the third quarter and only had a 28-24 lead entering the fourth quarter before exploding for 35 points in those final fifteen minutes. The Nittany Lions allowed Illinois to generate 411 yards of offense in that game which is a scary number when now hosting the Buckeyes. Remember that Penn State needed overtime to defeat Appalachian State to open their season — and they surrendered 451 yards in that game. Penn State has won their last three games by at least 39 points while being favored by at least a touchdown in all three games. But the Nittany Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning their last three games by at least three touchdowns. Penn State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three straight games as at least a 7-point favorite in each of those contests. This is an inexperienced team that returned only ten starters from last year’s team that saw a number of their players move on to the NFL. I am not convinced that head coach James Franklin is recruiting to just reload to the same extent that Urban Meyer is with Ohio State. Lastly, the Nittany Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 home games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games.

FINAL TAKE: Ohio State should have blown out Penn State last year — but a few flukey plays and some poor attention to detail by the Buckeyes kept them around in that game. I look for the Buckeyes to clean much of that up on the road in this challenging situation which should allow for their superior talent to overwhelm the Nittany Lions. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Ohio State Buckeyes (161) minus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (162). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (208) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (207). THE SITUATION:  Notre Dame (4-0) remained undefeated this season with their 56-27 win at Wake Forest last Saturday as a 6-point favorite. Stanford (4-0) survived a wild one last week as they rallied from a 24-7 halftime deficit at Oregon to force overtime and shock the Ducks by a 38-31 final score as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH MINUS THE POINTS: The Cardinal might be due for an emotional letdown after mustering the energy to come from behind to upset Oregon on the road. Stanford has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread victory. This is the second straight game where the Cardinal will be on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games coming off a game away from home. Frankly, Stanford was getting dominated in that game — until they recovered a fumble that they returned for an 80-yard touchdown which completely changed the tone of that game. The Cardinal did average 7.96 Yards-Per-Play in that win — but they have failed cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP in their last game. Stanford has also defeated USC and San Diego State this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning at least four in a row. Notre Dame should build off the momentum of their big win on the road last week. The Fighting Irish have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least four touchdowns. Notre Dame has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game played on the road. Kelly has finally tapped redshirt sophomore Ian Book as his starting quarterback over senior Brandon Wimbush who has struggled with accuracy. Book offers this team a legitimate passing attack as he showed in the Citrus Bowl last year where he completed 14 of 19 passes for 164 yards in their 21-17 victory over LSU. Book completed 25 of 34 passes last week against the Demon Deacons for 325 yards while adding another 43 yards with three touchdowns on the ground. The Irish return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Notre Dame gets their top running back for this game in Dexter Williams who has finished his suspension from the team. Head coach Brian Kelly usually has his team playing well this time of the season. The Irish have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of September — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in Weeks 5 through 9 of the regular season.

FINAL TAKE: Notre Dame will have revenge on their minds after getting upset in Palo Alto last November 25th against Stanford by a 38-20 score despite being a 3-point favorite. Remember that this loss to close out their regular season was after their deflating 41-8 loss at Miami (FL) in a game that ended both their undefeated season as well as any realistic chance they had to earn a spot in the College Football playoffs. Look for the Fighting Irish to avenge that loss with a decisive victory. 25* College Football Game of the Month is with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (208) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (207). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Northwestern Wildcats (210) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (209). THE SITUATION: Northwestern (1-2) takes the field again after a bye week following their 39-34 upset loss to Akron two Saturdays ago despite being a 21.5-point favorite. Michigan (3-1) enters this game coming off their 56-10 win over Nebraska as an 18-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Northwestern was done-in by turnovers against the Zips. They allowed a 97-yard interception return for a touchdown along with a 50-yard interception return for a TD along with a fumble recovery in their end zone that Akron turned into a third defensive touchdown. Those miscues overwhelmed their 491 to 367 edge in total yards. The week off and the opportunity to upset the Wolverines should help the Wildcats play their best game of the season. They have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after the first month of the season under head coach Pat Fitzgerald. There were bright spots in that loss to the Zips. Fifth-year senior quarterback Clayton Thorson completed 33 of his 52 passes for 383 yards in a losing effort. Northwestern has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after failing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last contest. The Wildcats also held Akron to just 90 rushing yards — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last contest. Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by at least 20 points. Jim Harbaugh’s team has bounced-back from their opening loss at Notre Dame to win their last three games in convincing fashion. But all three of those games were at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road overall. The weak link of this team is their offensive line that was manhandled by the Irish — and this will that group’s biggest challenge since that game against a Northwestern front four that returned three starters from last year’s team that was 20th in the FBS by holding their opponents to just 20.1 PPG. The Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest. And in their last 14 games after holding their last opponent to less than 21 points, Michigan is just 4-9-1 ATS.

FINAL TAKE: The underdog has covered the point spread in 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams. The Wildcats are significant home underdogs in this game — but they will be motivated to redeem themselves from a bad loss two weeks ago. Fitzgerald’s team was 10-3 last year with a bowl win over Kentucky. Fourteen starters including their four-year starting QB in Thorson returned from that team. This should be a close game. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Northwestern Wildcats (210) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (209). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (107) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (108). THE SITUATION: UCLA (0-3) looks to earn their first victory in the Chip Kelly era as they take the field again after their 38-14 loss to Fresno State back on September 15th. Colorado (3-0) remained unbeaten this season after they defeated New Hampshire two Saturdays ago by a 45-14 score as a 37.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: Kelly needed that bye week to help get the UCLA ship on order. He certainly inherited a roster with plenty of talent despite finishing just 6-7 last year. An injury in the opening week to graduate transfer quarterback Wilton Speight did not help the cause. Speight’s back has improved enough for him to be able to ;any tonight but it is unclear if the former Michigan starting quarterback will take the field instead of freshman quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Despite receiving plenty of criticism this season, it is not as if Kelly has forgotten how to coach football. The Bruins should be in a better position to execute his up-tempo spread offense tonight. UCLA managed only 270 yards of offense against Fresno State with just 151 of these yards being in the air — but they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to pass for at least 170 yards in their last game. The Bruins needs to play better on the defensive end of the field after allowing 49 points in their previous game at Oklahoma. UCLA has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after allowing at least 31 points in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 37 points in their last two contests. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory where they failed to cover the point spread. Furthermore, the Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a bye week. Colorado is thriving due in a large part to some good fortune with turnovers. After winning the turnover battle in their previous game at Nebraska, the Buffaloes forced three turnovers to seize a +1 net turnover margin against New Hampshire. But net turnover margins are a better gauge to explain past win-loss records rather than future results. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after forcing at least three turnovers in their last game. The Buffaloes have also failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games after winning the turnover battle in two straight games. Colorado is also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: While it has been a disastrous start for UCLA, the three teams they have played so far this season enter Week Four of the CFB season with a 10-1 record. With the week off to regroup and the clean slate they still have as they begin Pac-12 play, the Bruins still have plenty to play for this season under their new head coach. Expect UCLA to play their best game of the season. 10* CFB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the UCLA Bruins (107) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (106) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (105). Memphis (3-1) looks for their first win in American Athletic Conference play tonight after they defeated South Alabama last week by a 52-35 score. Tulane (1-3) looks to bounce-back from their 49-6 loss at Ohio State last Saturday as a big 37.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE PLUS THE POINTS: Tulane may look unappealing to many bettors with their lone win being against Nicholls State this season — but head coach Willie Fritz is a great coach who typically gets the most out of his talent. Their opening game loss to Wake Forest was in overtime and they were tied at UAB with ten minutes to go in the 4th quarter before they lost by a touchdown. The Green Wave returns fourteen starters from last year’s team that finished just 5-7 — but nine of those opponents were bowl eligible and they lost four of those games by 6 points or less. Tulane should rebound with a strong effort tonight as they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Additionally, the Green Wave are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to score at least 20 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after failing to score at least a touchdown. Furthermore, Tulane has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after playing a non-conference opponent. And in Fritz’s last 9 games with this team against fellow American Athletic Conference opponents, the Green Wave are 6-2-1 ATS. Memphis may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 38 of their last 60 games after a win by at least 17 points. Furthermore, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after scoring at least 50 points in their last game. Memphis was 10-3 last year while being helped out by a +15 net turnover margin which was 4th best in the FBS. But this year’s team has seen the Regression Gods appear when it comes to turnover as they have a net turnover differential of zero. That could bode trouble for them now playing in a hostile environment. Defense remains an issue for this team as well after they ranked 116th in the FBS by allowing 466.2 total YPG. The Tigers surrendered 467 yards to the Jaguars last week with 360 of those yards being in the air. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 325 passing yards. And while the Tigers rushed for 271 yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Tulane is better than their record appears — they should score enough points to at least keep this game interesting while staying within the point spread. 25* CFB Friday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Tulane Green Wave (106) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (101) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-1-1) looks to bounce-back on a short week after being upset on Sunday at home against Buffalo by a  27-6 score despite being a big 16.5-point favorite in that game. Los Angeles (3-0) remained undefeated last week after winning the “Battle of Los Angeles” with their 35-23 victory over the Chargers at home as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Minnesota got caught napping last week as they perhaps began reading their own press clippings a bit too much. They should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 41 of their last 61 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Head coach Mike Zimmer has been vocal about the challenge his team faces about traveling out west on a short week to face a team that got to stay at home after their Week Three game. But this is why the Vikings are getting about a touchdown in this game as an underdog — and Zimmer has studied the best methods to handle this tough part of the schedule with the conclusion that getting his team into Los Angeles on Tuesday put his team in the best position to succeed. I expect Minnesota to play well by embracing this “us against the world” mentality. There are a few things the Vikings will want to do better in this game. First, they need to get off to a better start after trailing Green Bay by a 17-7 score at halftime two weeks ago before going into the locker rooms at halftime last week with a shocking 27-0 deficit to the winless Bills. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after trailing by double digits in each of their last two games. Second, the Vikings need to get more production out of their ground game after rushing the ball only six times last week for a mere 14 yards. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after failing to generate at least 90 rushing yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not even rushing for 30 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Vikings have still covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in the month of September despite failing to win games as the favorite in their last two games. Additionally, while the Vikings’ star defensive end Everson Griffen will not be playing in this game as he deals with some significant off-the-field issues, Minnesota is still loaded with talent on their deep defensive line (particular on the ends). Los Angeles generated 521 yards in their victory over the Chargers last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. This Rams team enters Week Four with some difficult injuries to overcome which is a relatively new phenomenon for this franchise that has led the NFL in the previous two seasons with games lost by prospective starters to injury. LA might be without both their new starting cornerbacks duo this season with Aqib Talib going on Injured Reserve with an ankle injury and Marcus Peters questionable with a calf injury. Starting interior linebacker Mark Barron is also listed as questionable with an ankle which might leave their vulnerable linebacking corps even thinner for this game. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games for Thursday Night Football.

FINAl TAKE: The Vikings dominated this matchup last year with their 24-7 win over the Rams back on November 19th. While LA is motivated by revenge, laying up to the touchdown for this game is probably too much to ask against an uber-talented and now angry Minnesota team. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Minnesota Vikings (101) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (104) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (103). THE SITUATION: Miami (FL) (3-1) looks to build off their 31-17 win over Florida International last Saturday as a 26.5-point favorite. North Carolina (1-2) enters this game coming off a 38-35 upset victory at home against Pittsburgh as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES MINUS THE POINTS: The Tar Heels now go back on the road on a short week to play their third game away from home this month. North Carolina is 0-2 on the road this year while being outscored by -14.5 PPG against inferior teams than these Hurricanes in East Carolina and California. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games as a big underdog in the 17.5 to 21 point range. Defense is an issue for this team after they allowed 31.3 PPG while ranking tied for 98th in the FBS by surrendering 436 total YPG last year. The whispers are getting louder that head coach Larry Fedora is not paying close enough attention to the defensive side of the football. Successful opponents against North Carolina have been able to run the football to keep Fedora’s typical dynamic offense off the field. This season, the Tar Heels are allowing 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry which has resulted in 203 rushing YPG for their opponents along with keeping the UNC offense off the field for 33:51 minutes per game. This defense allowed 213 rushing YPG last season which was 213th in the nation — and they were last in the ACC in run defense. The Tar Heels previous game was a 41-19 loss at East Carolina before they pulled that upset last Saturday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 30 games after playing two straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored. North Carolina is also 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in the month of September. Miami returned seven starters from their good defense last year — and they have been even stingier so far this season as they are allowing only 18.5 PPG while giving up just 223.7 total YPG. They limited the Golden Panthers to just 187 yards of offense last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 275 yards of offense in their last game. The Hurricanes have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 26 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. On offense, head coach Mark Richt has not declared who is starting quarterback will be despite last year’s starter Malik Rosier being the first under center in all four games this season. But redshirt freshman N’Kosi Perry has been dynamic when giving the opportunity to play — and he might get the start tonight after completing 17 of 25 passes for 224 yards with three touchdown passes last week while adding another 32 yards on the ground with his dangerous ability to move the ball with his scrambling ability. But the Miami offense will revolve around their strong one-two punch at running back with Travis Homer and Lorenzo Lingard who have helped this offense average 204 rushing YPG while averaging 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry — and they have churned out at least 239 rushing yards in each of their last three games. The Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. They dominated FIU last week by +301 net yards — and not only have they then covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +150 net yards but they have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +200 net yards. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Lastly, this team is outscoring their opponents by +25.0 PPG while also outgaining their opponents by +225.5 net YPG — and they have been even more dominant at home in their first two games where they have outscored their opponents +45.5 PPG while outgaining these opponents by +358.5 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Miami should dominate the Tar Heels by using the tried-and-true method of running the football to dominate time of possession. 25* CFB ACC Game of the Month with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (104) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (489) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (490). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-1-1) is still looking for their first win of the season after losing at home to Kansas City by a 42-37 score despite being 4.5-point favorites in that game last Sunday. Tampa Bay (2-0) looks to continue their success after they upset Philadelphia at home last week by a 27-21 score as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh should bounce-back with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after suffering an upset loss. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 30 points inter last game. Pittsburgh did outgain the still-undefeated Chiefs in that game by a 475 to 449 margin. Moving forward, the Steelers are 23-9-2 ATS in their last 34 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 12 expected close games with the point spread in the +/- 3-point range, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 8 of these contests. Tampa Bay is getting great production out of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick but their defense remains a grave concern. They allowed Nick Foles to pass for 321 yards en route to the Eagles churning out 412 yards of offense. The Buccaneers are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Injuries are already ravaging this defensive unit with cornerback Vernon Hargreaves on Injured Reserve while rookie defensive tackle Vita Vea is out with a calf injury and cornerback Brent Grimes questionable with a groin. Tampa Bay had to rely on two rookie cornerbacks (M.J. Stewart and Carlton Davis) as their starters last week. They survived Foles and Philadelphia with that game finishing above the 46.5 point total — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Fitzpatrick is 0-5 as a starting quarterback when facing this Steelers team. Lastly, the Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Fitzpatrick has been great — but his defense has too many injuries right now. Pittsburgh should bounce-back with a strong effort. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with Pittsburgh Steelers (489) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (490). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (488) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (487). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 31-20 loss at Jacksonville last Sunday as a 2-point favorite. Detroit (0-2) remained winless so far this season last Sunday when they lost in San Francisco by a 30-27 score as a 6-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit has not looked very organized in their first two games under rookie head coach Matt Patricia. Their opening week loss at home to a rookie quarterback in Sam Darnold and the New York Jets was a nightmare. The Lions then had a difficult challenge to then head out west to face another team in the 49ers who also lost their opening game. Detroit outgained San Francisco by a 427 to 346 margin but returned home still winless in the Patricia era. Now with rumors of the veteran players rebelling against Patricia’s attempt to impose disciple and an increased work effort, this Lions team looks to be on the brink of a complete meltdown. What’s new in Detroit? But I think this team fits nicely into the ole “wounded animal” theory and I expect them to play their best game of the season with their backs against the wall while rallying around their head coach who has something to prove against his former team with which he won a Super Bowl as a defensive coordinator. QB Matthew Stafford played one of his worst games as a professional in that loss to the Jets on Monday Night Football as he threw five interceptions while too often looking lost in the pocket. But he rebounded nicely last week by completing 34 of his 53 passes for 347 yards while tossing three touchdown passes and no interceptions against the 49ers last week. Detroit has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. All is not lost with this team just yet as they have won nine games in each of their last two seasons. Talent exists on both sides of the football for this team. New England reaches the Super Bowl once again last year but there are certainly cracks in their armor as they only outgained their opponents by +28.1 net YPG. The Jaguars dominated the yardage battle last week by outgaining the Patriots by a 480 to 302 margin. While they faced an outstanding defense last week, this Patriots team is depleted at the wide receiver position — and the recently acquired Josh Gordon is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury after he came over in that trade with Cleveland. It is asking an awful lot of any team to cover the point spread on the road laying almost a touchdown. As it is, New England has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Expect the Lions to be fired-up at home in front of an energetic crowd with the opportunity to immediately right their proverbial ship by pulling the upset against the blue bloods of the NFL in the Patriots. While Detroit may not win the game, they should keep it close. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Detroit Lions (488) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (487). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (484) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (483). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-1) earned their first win of the season on national television on Monday with their 24-17 victory over Seattle as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday Night Football. Arizona (0-2) looks to pick themselves off the mat after they were shutout by a 34-0 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS: Arizona has looked like the worst team in the NFL after getting outscored by an embarrassing 58 to 6 mark in their first two games under first-year head coach Steve Wilkes. Expect the Cardinals to play their best game of the young season this afternoon after these awful efforts. Arizona has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a loss by at least four touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after being shutout. Furthermore, the Cardinals have covered the point spread in 43 of their last 65 home games after losing their previous two games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. The Arizona offense was pathetic last week as they managed only 137 yards of offense against the stout Rams defense. But this Cardinals offense is not nearly as bad as those numbers suggest under veteran quarterback Sam Bradford — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards of offense. Arizona needs to play better on both sides of the ball after giving up 342 passing yards and 432 yards overall. The Cardinals are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards. And in their last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points, Arizona has covered the point spread 4 times. Chicago does not deserve to be a road favorite laying close to a touchdown against any of their NFL peers. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as the favorite. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a game at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road. The Bears benefited from a 49-yard interception return for a touchdown that ended up being the winning difference against the Seahawks. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the month of September. And while the Bears defense limited Seattle to just 74 rushing yards in their last game, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona is not as bad as their terrible numbers suggest after facing an underrated Washington team before a juggernaut in the Rams last week. It is hard seeing the Bears beating anyone by almost a touchdown when they are playing on the road. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Arizona Cardinals (484) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (483). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (474) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (473). THE SITUATION: Oakland (0-2) remained winless in the second incarnation of the Jon Gruden era last week when they lost to the Broncos in Denver by a 20-19 score as a 5.5-point underdog. Miami (2-0) is a surprise undefeated team after their upset the Jets in New York last week by a 20-12 score as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. And while QB Derek Carr passed for 288 yards last week, Oakland is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after passing for at least 250 yards. Some stats would suggest that the marriage of Gruden with Carr has worked wonders since Carr is completing a magnificent 85% of his passes this season. Yet those passes have too often been an exercise in dink and dunks as the gunslinger has thrown only one touchdown pass this year. Carr has now lost his last six starts while possessing a meager 6:8 touchdown to interception ratio while leading an offense that is scoring only 14 PPG. The defense has registered only two sacks while allowing their opponents to convert on 45% of their third-down opportunities. The Raiders stay on the road where they have lost seven of their last eight games. Oakland is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road while also going only 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Even more troubling for this team is that while they are outscoring their opponents by a 25-10 margin in the first half this season, they have been outscored by a whopping 43-7 mark in the second half. That points to poor coaching — and it is a terrible omen for a team that has to travel east to play an early 1 PM ET start with their body clocks still thinking it is 10 AM. Miami started fast last week by seizing a 20-0 lead at halftime against the Jets — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 3 points in the first half of their last game. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. This Miami team entered the season under the radar but I saw potential with a group that head coach Adam Gace felt very good about after the team cleaned house with some of the underachieving egos on the roster. QB Ryan Tannehill has now won nine of this last ten starts as well as going an impressive 17-7 straight-up in his last twenty-four starts. While the Dolphins had only 122 passing yards last week after accounting for sack yardage, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to pass for at least 150 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: I thought Gruden might see early success before the toll of having so many aging veterans began to expose itself. Instead, things look as bad as the biggest cynics suggested. I hate the travel situation for the Raiders in this game who have relied on fast starts in their first two games — it is typical for west coast teams to start slow when playing out east for the early games. The icing on the cake is that the Dolphins are playing with revenge from a  27-24 loss to Oakland last November. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Kickoff with the Miami Dolphins (474) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (462) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (461). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 27-21 upset loss in Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite last week. Indianapolis (1-1) enters this game coming off a 21-9 upset victory in Washington as a 6-point underdog against the Skins.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss . The big news for this game is that Carson Wentz will return to the field and start this game at quarterback. The offense was not bad last week under Nick Foles who completed 35 of 48 passes for 334 yards while leading the unit to generate 412 total yards. But Wentz is a different breed — and even if he is not 100% from his torn ACL from last year, he is a big upgrade as an offensive weapon. His 33 touchdown passes led the NFL at the time of his Week 13 injury last year. As it is, Philly has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Eagles defense allowed 436 yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Philadelphia is missing some weapons at wide receiver and running back — but they are close to full strength on their offensive and defensive lines that I consider the best units in football. That should make the difference in this game. Indianapolis is a M*A*S*H unit already this year. They entered the season with a whopping twelve players on Injured Reserve which is devastating for a franchise that already had significant talent and depth issues. It has since only gotten worse with the following notable starters out for this game: left tackle Anthony Castanzo, tight end Jack Doyle, running back Marlon Mack, cornerback Quincy Wilson, defensive tackle Hassan Ridgeway. This is terrible news for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. The Colts have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Too many injuries for this Indianapolis team now traveling to face an angry Philly team who proved last year that their depth on the roster was one of the strengths that helped them win the Super Bowl. 10* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Philadelphia Eagles (462) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (479) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (480). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-0) returns home for their first game of the season at the new Arrowhead Stadium after their 42-37 upset win at Pittsburgh. San Francisco (1-1) looks to build off their 30-27 win over the Lions at home last week as a 6-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: I would not respect myself if I did not puts some chips in to invest against the Chiefs with a contrarian play given all the love this team is getting from bettors. Kansas City’s perceived value will never be higher than it is right now after pulling off two straight upset victories on the road with Patrick Mahomes wowing on-lookers (and genius fantasy football enthusiasts) with his video game numbers so far. There will be a learning curve for Mahomes as opposing defensive coaches staffs gather tape on the new offense head coach Andy Reid has designed for his new quarterback. The Chiefs topped their 362 yards of offense in Week One against the Chargers by compiling 475 yards against a perhaps overrated Steelers defense — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. KC has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 35 points in two straight games. Furthermore, what has been lost in the rush to put Mahomes into the Hall of Fame is that the Chiefs abysmal play on defense as they are allowing 32.5 PPG and 508.0 total YPG. Kansas City has surrendered more than 400 passing yards in each of their first two contests which should raise red flags for a defense that severely misses Eric Berry in their defensive backfield. San Francisco probably entered this season overrated after winning their last five games. QB Jimmy Garoppolo perhaps was a harbinger for what Mahomes will soon experience as his incredible numbers have come back down to earth as defenses adapt. But this 49ers team is certainly good enough to stay within a touchdown’s length of most teams even when playing on the road. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. The 49ers have also covered the point spread in 3 straight games after a narrow win by 3 points or less.

FINAL TAKE: I often tease (sometimes mock) the overblown chatter about sharp and square plays — so-called sharp bettors lose all the time while public “square” bets certainly win enough to keep those bettors engaged. But we want to be invested in conventional “sharp” bets like this with the overwhelming majority of the money going on the Chiefs. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (479) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (476) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (475). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a sluggish 21-9 upset loss at home last week to Indianapolis as a 6-point favorite. Green Bay (1-0-1) kissed their sister last week but probably feel pretty good about their 29-29 tie with Minnesota considering that they were 2-point underdogs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SKINS PLUS THE POINTS: Washington should respond with a strong effort in this game as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Skins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss at home while they have also covered the point spread in 3 straight games after a double-digit upset loss as a home favorite laying at least 6 points in that game. Washington was feeling pretty good about themselves after a dominating opening win on the road at Arizona by a 24-6 score. Head coach Jay Gruden has an under-appreciated defense that is poaching Alabama defensive talent. Defensive end Jonathan Allen was off to a great start last year before his rookie season was cut short after five games with a foot injury. He reunited this year with nose tackle Da’Ron Payne whom the Skins drafted with their first-round pick this offseason. With cornerback Josh Norman leading the way, Washington was 9th in the NFL in pass defense. They collapsed to finishing last in the league in run defense but they were much better in those first five games with Allen in the mix. This season, the Skins are second in the NFL by allowing only 13.5 PPG while leading the league by giving up only 247.0 total YPG. They should play better on offense this afternoon behind QB Alex Smith as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. This will be the Packers first game away from Lambeau Field this season. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Packers have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games when laying no more than a field goal. Green Bay pulled out the tie with the Vikings last week after getting outgained by 129 net yards last week. They survived that game due to a touchdown they scored after blocking a punt in the end zone. This team could easily be winless entering this game if what was not for the miracle comeback from Aaron Rodgers on Sunday Night Football in the opening week of the season. But Rodgers is still gimpy and only one bad hit away from the Pack relying on the disastrous DeShone Kizer under center. As it is, Rodgers is not the same quarterback away from Green Bay as he holds only a 43-42 career record on the road while losing ten of his last seventeen starts on the road. Furthermore, I think the Packers are at a disadvantage on both sides of the line of scrimmage in this game against the Skins. Green Bay is averaging only 83 rushing YPG while giving up 103 rushing YPG. Lastly, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The opportunity to take Washington as a home dog in this spot is a great situation for us. Let’s attack. 25* NFL NFC Underdog of the Month with the Washington Redskins (476) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (467) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (468). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (1-1) looks to build off their narrow 21-18 win over Cleveland last Sunday. Atlanta (1-1) also earned their first win of the season last Sunday with their 31-24 win over Carolina.

THE SITUATION: The Falcons are simply ravaged with injuries right now. The defense took two devastating losses in their opening game of the season against the Eagles when safety Keanu Neal and Deion Jones both suffered what are likely season-ending injuries. Those two players might very well be the best two players that head coach Dan Quinn has on that side of the ball. To make matters worse when facing Drew Brees and company, Atlanta will be without last year’s first-round draft pick in Takkarist McKinley after the defensive end was downgraded to being out with a groin injury. The Falcons surrendered 318 passing yards last week to the Panthers that does not have the weapons that the Saints enjoy — and Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. On offense, the Falcons are also without their top running back DeVonta Freeman who is dealing with an ankle injury — his absence will not make things easier for this team in the Red Zone. Of course, Atlanta still has wide receiver Julio Jones — but he has only one touchdown catch in his last nine games. Jones has not saved his prolific games for the Saints either as he has only one touchdown catch in his last eight games against New Orleans. These are all bad signs for a Falcons team that tends to suffer letdowns. Not only has Atlanta failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win but they have failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 50 games after a win at home against an NFC South rival. Even worse, the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 29 home games after a win at home. New Orleans has yet to cover a point spread this season — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to cover point spread expectations in each of their last two games. Both of the Saints’ first two games have finished Under the Total — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after playing two straight Unders. Furthermore, New Orleans has lost the turnover battle in each of their first two games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after suffering at least a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games. Brees owns a 16-9 career record against Atlanta and should be prepared to outgun Matt Ryan in this one. Fading the Saints away from the Superdome had a brief period of success — but it is a sucker’s bet these days (if that is one’s only reason). New Orleans has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games on the road while also covering the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games as an underdog. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games played on grass.

FINAL TAKE: The underdog has covered the point spread in 7 of the last 9 meetings between these two teams. I just hate the injuries that Atlanta has endured so far this season — their losses on defense will be too much to overcome when facing Brees while being undermanned on offense without Freeman and still working out their Red Zone issues with offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. 25* NFL NFC South Game of the Month with the New Orleans Saints (467) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (468). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah State Aggies (392) minus the points versus the Air Force Falcons (391). THE SITUATION: Utah State (2-1) looks to build off the mAt 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah State Aggies (392) minus the points versus the Air Force Falcons (391). THE SITUATION: Utah State (2-1) looks to build off the momentum of their 72-12 win over Tennessee Tech Thursday. Air Force (1-1) takes the field again after having lost week off following their 33-27 loss at Florida Atlantic back on September 8th as an 8-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: Utah State generated 621 yards of offense against their FCS foe last week. While some bettors might discount those numbers given their opponent, I consider this Aggies’ offense to be the best unit that head coach Matt Wells has assembled in his six years with the football program. Redshirt sophomore quarterback took over the starting job midway during last season and displayed a propensity for big-play ability down the stretch to justify him entering this season as the incumbent starter. He validated that faith last week by completing 21 of 26 passes for 236 yards and two touchdown passes last week. Utah State has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. This Aggies team was just 6-7 last year three of those losses were decided by one scoring possession. If this team could learn to win close games, they would likely be considered one of the best teams in the Mountain West Conference. After losing by just a 38-31 score in East Lansing to Michigan State to start the season, Utah State has now lost their last nine games that were decided by just one scoring possession. Eventually, this Aggies team will start winning their share of those games — and this inability to pull out close games right now obscures a team from many bettors that should cover this double-digit point spread tonight. Nine starters along with 84.2% of their tackles from last year returned — and they only allowed 227 yards in their blowout last week. Utah State is 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 yards. Wells’ team owns a huge field advantage as they are on a 31-9 run at home while outscoring their first two visitors by an average score of 66.5 to 12.5 point margin. The Aggies have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of September. Air Force (1-1) is not likely to bounce-back with a strong effort as they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games after a straight-up loss. Even with the bye week, this is a difficult assignment for the Falcons playing on the road for the second straight game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 43 of their last 69 games after a loss on the road. That now two-loss Owls team outgained Air Force in that game by 152 net yards — and the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after being outgained by at least 125 yards. Air Force was only 5-7 last year with there being whispers that the talent level is declining on this squad after head coach Troy Calhoun missed out on a bowl for only the second time in his eleven-year coaching tenure. Opposing offenses destroyed them last year when they were in shotgun formation where slow-developing run plays continued to expose the lack of speed on this defense. To compound matters, Calhoun lost his skilled defensive coordinator in Steve Russ who was wooed to the NFL by the Carolina Panthers. The offensive line is also small which puts them at a disadvantage at the better FBS programs. Air Force has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games against fellow Mountain West Conference opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The icing on the cake for this contest is that Utah State is motivated with revenge after losing last year’s matchup with the Falcons by a 38-35 score on the road. Air Force is on a 51-18 run at home but it is much different story for them on the road. And while the Falcons have their unique spread triple option offense, I am sure that Wells has been practicing against those schemes for at least two weeks since that contest with Tennessee Tech last week was a glorified scrimmage. 25* CFB ESPN2 Game of the Month is with the Utah State Aggies (392) minus the points versus the Air Force Falcons (391). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (312) minus the point versus the Akron Zips (311). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (0-2) has opened the season winless after losing at home to Oklahoma last week by a 37-27 score as an 18.5-point underdog. Akron (2-0) is undefeated after they upset Northwestern last Saturday by a 39-34 score as a 21-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES MINUS THE POINTS: The Zips were rather fortunate to steal that game last week in Evanston against the Wildcats after being outgained by a 491 to 367 mark. Akron made up for that significant gap by scoring three defensive touchdowns with a 97-yard interception return for a touchdown along with a 50-yard interception return for a TD and a fumble recovery in the end zone. Iowa State is not likely to be near as accommodating this week — and that likely means a rude awakening for this Akron team that has failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after an upset win as a double-digit underdog. The Zips stay on the road for a second straight week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after a win on the road. Terry Bowden’s team is vulnerable to being blown out as they were outgained in Mid American Conference play last year by -103 net YPG. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games played on grass. Iowa State should bounce-back with a big effort as they are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. And while their defense surrendered 519 yards to the Sooners, they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing at least 450 yards. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games. And in their last 8 games in September, the Cyclones have covered the point spread 6 times. Together, these team trends produce our specific 78-16-3 ATS combined angle for this situation.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa State should easily earn their first win of the season in this one against a Zips team that was a season full of good breaks last week when it comes to scoring defensive touchdowns. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Iowa State Cyclones (312) minus the point versus the Akron Zips (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (324) plus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (323). THE SITUATION: Boston College (3-0) remained undefeated this season last week with their 41-34 win at Wake Forest back on September 13th as a 6.5-point favorite. Purdue (0-3) is still looking for their first win of the season after they lost at home to Missouri last week by a 40-37 score as a 5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Don’t blame the Purdue offense as they generated 614 yards of offense in their loss to the Tigers. The Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Purdue has the benefit of staying home for the fourth straight game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. The Boilermakers have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games outside Big Ten play — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of September. Boston College has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against Big Ten opponents. The Eagles usually have a strong defense under head coach Steve Addazio but they allowed the Demon Deacons to generate 512 yards of offense in escaping with that victory. Now Boston College stays on the road for the second straight week where they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 20 road games when laying 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Expect the Boilermakers to be very feisty as they look to get their first win of the season. This should be a close game the Purdue can win. 10* CFB Boston College-Purdue ESPN2 Special with the Purdue Boilermakers (324) plus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (323). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Maryland Terrapins (320) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (319). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (3-0) won their third straight games last Saturday with their 26-3 win over Miami (OH) as a 14-point favorite. Maryland (2-1) looks to bounce-back from a 35-14 upset loss last week versus Temple as a 15-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TERRAPINS MINUS THE POINTS: The Golden Gophers might be primed for a letdown as they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they are only 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spreadn win. Furthermore, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 6 points in their last game. Now head coach P.J. Fleck’s team goes on the road for the first time this season. This could lead to some harrowing moments for a group that has 59 of their 113 players being true or redshirt freshmen led by starting quarterback Zack Annexstand who is a former walk-on for this team. Yikes — the road may provide a stern reality check for this group that was just 2-7 in Big Ten play last year while getting outgained by -100 YPG. Minnesota is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Big Ten play. Maryland should rebound with a strong effort after their embarrassing loss last week. The Terrapins have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset loss by at least 17 points. Furthermore, Maryland has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games at home after a loss by at least 17 points Additionally, the Terrapins have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 61 games after a loss by at least three touchdowns. Maryland managed only 195 yards in that loss to the Owls but their offense should play better this afternoon. The Terrapins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after failing to generate at least 275 yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: Maryland started the season strong with another upset win over Texas. They took a step back last week — but they are playing well for interim coach Matt Canada who is leading the team during the ongoing controversy they team suffered in their preseason that has resulted in head coach D.J. Durkin being on indefinite leave with the school just ruling that the football team was irresponsible in the handling of their player who died on the practice field. Amidst this emotional backdrop, look for the Terrapins to rebound with a big effort against a very young Golden Gophers group. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Maryland Terrapins (320) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (310) minus the points versus the Washington State Cougars (309). THE SITUATION: Washington State (3-0) won their third straight game last Saturday with their 59-24 win over Eastern Washington as a 20-point favorite. USC (1-2) has lost two straight games after they lost at Texas last Saturday night by a 37-14 score as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS MINUS THE POINTS: The Cougars may be due for a letdown after starting the season a perfect 3-0. Washington State had come off a 31-0 shutout win over San Jose State the previous week before easily dispatching of their FCS opponent — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning their last two games by at least four touchdowns in each game. The Cougars generated 565 yards of offense last week but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Now after playing their last two games at home, Washington State goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games. The Cougars have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning their last two games at home by at least two touchdowns. Washington State has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on Friday night. USC needs a win after losing two straight games at Stanford and then last week in Austin against the Longhorns. Returning home will help this Trojans team as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. USC has also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a straight-up loss. This team remains one of the most talented groups in the nation — they returned thirteen starters from their team that was 11-3 last year. Too often this team plays uninspired football for head coach Clay Helton. But I expect a very spirited effort from this team on a two-game losing streak yet with the opportunity to avenge a 30-27 upset loss to this Washington State team from last September.

FINAL TAKE: Motivated by revenge and redemption from a two-game losing streak, don’t be surprised if the Trojans play their best game of the season. 10* CFB Friday Late Show Bailout with the USC Trojans (310) minus the points versus the Washington State Cougars (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Florida Atlantic Owls (305) plus the points versus the Central Florida Golden Knights (306). THE SITUATION: FAU (2-1) has won two straight games after their blowout 49-28 win over Bethune Cookman last Saturday. Central Florida (2-0) takes the field again after a bye week following their 38-0 shutout over South Carolina State two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: Central Florida has now won fifteen straight games with their two wins tacking on to their perfect 13-0 record last year. But the Golden Knights returned only twelve starters from that team and have a new Air Raid-influenced offensive system under new head coach Josh Heupel. While Central Florida still has their junior quarterback McKenzie Milton under center, this new offense asks him to stay under center more often in passing situations rather than the horizontal option schemes that previous head coach Scott Frost designed for him to run to accentuate his speed. This will be Milton’s biggest test so far this season after an easy schedule against UConn and then an FCS opponent before this game. Last year’s team benefited from a +17 net turnover margin which is a primed for a visit from the Regression Gods while also surviving all four of their games decided by one scoring possession. Yet the Golden Knights are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points. Central Florida has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. FAU (2-1) has rebounded with two straight wins after the opening week lesson they were served in Norman. Oklahoma at the hands of the Sooners. Head coach Lane Kiffin will have his team ready for this game and they should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. The Owls seized a 36-14 lead at halftime last week — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after scoring at last 24 points in the first-half in their last game. The FAU offense cranked out 559 yards in that victory — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Now the Owls go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games after a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. And while Kiffin’s team is an underdog of almost two touchdowns, FAU has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog of 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: FAU should offer a tough challenge to Central Florida’s fifteen game winning streak — especially since the Golden Knights do not enjoy a significant home-field advantage. Expect a close game. 10* CFB FAU-Central Florida ESPN Special with the Florida Atlantic Owls (305) plus the points versus the Central Florida Golden Knights (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (302) minus the points versus the New York Jets (301). THE SITUATION: New York (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 20-12 upset loss at home to Miami last week as a 3-point favorite. Cleveland (0-1-1) also looks to rebound from a 21-18 loss in New Orleans as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a very tough challenge for the Sam Darnold with this game being played on a short week against a Gregg Williams-coached defense that will show him plenty of exotic looks. To compound matter, this is the rookie’s third game in just eleven days which is a very difficult way to start an NFL career. Darnold did complete 25 of 41 passes for 334 yards but don’t be surprised if Darnold looks overwhelmed at times in this game. As it is, the Jets are just 1-4-1 in the Jets’ last 6 games after a game where they passed for at least 250 yards in their last game. And while Darnold has led the offense to average 6.12 and 6.03 Yards-Per-Play in their first two games this season, New York has then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in each of their last two games. Now the Jets go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games as an underdog. And in their last 13 games played on grass, New York is just 3-9-1 in those contests. Cleveland should respond with a strong effort tonight as they continue to play with a chip on their shoulder looking for their first victory since December 24, 2016. Don’t blame the Browns for that loss in the Big Easy as they held the potent Saints’ offense to just 275 yards of offense. This is a unit that is emerging into one of the better units in the league. Led by second-year defensive end Myles Garrett, Cleveland has already registered 7 sacks this year which is 5th best in the NFL. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 22 games after a loss on the road by no more than a field goal. The Browns have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on Thursday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: After playing two playoff teams to tough games with their tie against the Steelers in Week One before their 3-point loss in the Superdome to the New Orleans last week, look for an energized crowd to help the Browns to victory tonight. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Browns (302) minus the points versus the New York Jets (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (303) plus the points versus the Temple Owls (304). THE SITUATION: Tulsa (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 29-20 upset loss last Saturday against Arkansas State as a 2-point favorite. Temple (1-2) won their first game the season last Saturday in a 35-14 upset win at Maryland as a 15-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN HURRICANES PLUS THE POINTS: Tulsa opened their season with an 11-point win over Central Arkansas before losing by a touchdown as a 21-point dog in Austin against Texas. This is a critical contest in head coach Philip Montgomery’s fourth year in Tulsa after they fell plummeted from a 10-3 mark in 2016 to just a 2-10 record last year. Last year’s Golden Hurricanes’ group was better than that record suggests as they played eight teams who reached a bowl game. Tulsa lost five games that came down to the final possession as well — so that final record could have been much better. Fifteen starters return from that group including both quarterbacks in sophomore Luke Skipper and junior Chad President who endured a trial by fire last year. Skipper proved to be the more dangerous weapon last year given his dual-threat capabilities. So far this season, Skipper is completing 61.3% of his passes for 521 yards while adding another 109 rushing yards on the ground. Montgomery should have his team play tough as they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a point spread loss. The Golden Hurricanes have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games as the underdog. Tulsa suffered from a -2 net turnover margin in that loss to the Red Wolves while forcing only one turnover. But the Golden Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after only forcing one turnover — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games after enduring a -2 or worse turnover margin in their last contest. Temple began the year suffering upset losses to Villanova and Buffalo before pulling that trick off themselves as a double-digit underdog against a Big Ten school in the Terrapins. But it might be hasty to assume that all is right again for second-year head coach Geoff Collins. The Owls have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after an upset win by at least two touchdowns on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a victory by at least three touchdowns. Furthermore, inconsistency has been an issue for this Temple team under Collins as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. The Owls have questions at quarterback with the undisclosed injury to Frank Nutile that kept him out last week. Sophomore Anthony Russo played well in his absence so it is unclear what will happen tonight — especially since Nutile had completed only 52.4% of his passes in his first two games while tossing 4 interceptions. Temple returned only twelve starters from last year’s 7-6 team. Defense has been a staple for this team as of late — and they held Maryland to just 195 yards of offense in that upset win last week. But the Owls have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Lastly, Temple has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the month of September — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: With Tulsa coming into this game feisty and with something to prove while Temple being perhaps a bit relieved from last week but with underlying quarterback issues, expect a close game in this American Athletic Conference contest. 25* CFB Thursday Night ESPN Game of the Month with the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (303) plus the points versus the Temple Owls (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (289) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (290). THE SITUATION: Seattle (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 27-24 loss at Denver last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Chicago (0-1) also looks rebound from a narrow loss after they lost in Green Bay last Sunday night by a 27-24 score as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle should play well tonight as they are 10-3-2 ATS in their last 15 games after a straight-up loss. And while they come off a scoring fest last week against the Broncos, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total while also covering the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after a game where both teams scored at least 24 points. Many bettors are down on this Seahawks team after their disappointing 2017-18 season which saw them move on from a number of veterans in the offseason. But head coach Pete Carroll has created a younger roster this year — and he has a proven track record of getting the most of a group of youthful players. Seattle is 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Seahawks are also 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on Monday Night Football. Chicago played great in the first-half last week as they raced out to a 17-0 lead going into halftime at Lambeau Field — but they were outscored by a dominant 24-7 margin in the second-half. The Bears held the Packers to just 69 rushing yards in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight gams after allowing no more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. An injured Aaron Rodgers did torch the Chicago secondary for 301 yards — and they are a rough 17-39-1 ATS in their last 57 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Bears did manage only 294 yards on offense with their offense slowing down considerably after running through their set of scripted plays from rookie head coach Matt Nagy to quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. Moving forward, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in the month of September — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played in the second week of the season. Furthermore, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 8 games against fellow NFC opponents, Chicago is 2-5-1 ATS.

FINAL TAKE: Many bettors will remember how good the Bears looked in the first-half of their prime time game against Green Bay which is why the original -2.5 points they were laying have been bet up to more than 4 points in many spots. The Seahawks are a bit underrated right now — making these points very valuable. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Seattle Seahawks (289) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (290). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (288) minus the points versus the New York Giants (287). THE SITUATION: New York (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 20-15 loss a home to Jacksonville last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Dallas (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 16-8 loss at Carolina as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas has stepped up to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the second week of the NFL season. Their defense played quite well by holding the Panthers to just 16 points at home — this Cowboys defense should continue to play well given their balance after finishing last year 8th in the NFL in run defense and 11th in pass defense. Look for the Dallas offense to play better back at home. Remember that the Cowboys had won eighteen of their last twenty-four games before the Ezekiel Elliott four-game suspension last season. This team was also hit hard by two tough injuries to left tackle Tyron Smith and linebacker Sean Lee. Dallas is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow teams from the NFC East. New York (0-1) has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against NFC opponents. The problems for this team last week as they managed to generate only 324 yards of offense. The Giants ranked 31st in the NFL last year by scoring only 15.4 PPG — and their 15 points last week included a defensive 32-yard interception returned for a touchdown. New York has failed to cover the point spread in has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played in the month of September — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games in Week 2 of the new season. Moving forward, the Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games as an underdog getting 7 or less points. New York has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas should flex their muscles with the benefit of home field advantage — and they swept the Giants in their two games last year. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Dallas Cowboys (288) minus the points versus the New York Giants (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (204) minus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (203). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (2-0) remained undefeated this season last Saturday when they crushed Rutgers at home by a 52-3 score as a 35-point favorite. TCU (2-0) also remains unscathed this year after they traveled to SMU to defeat the Mustangs by a 42-12 score as a 23.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS PLUS THE POINTS: TCU entered this season underrated after they went 11-3 last year in a season that culminated with a 39-37 shootout victory over Stanford in the Alamo Bowl. Two of their three losses were to an Oklahoma team that made the College Football Playoff. The offense is led by redshirt sophomore quarterback Shawn Robinson who has a similar game to former star Horned Frogs quarterback Trevor Boykin in his ability to generate yardage with a big arm as well as his legs. 18-year head coach Gary Patterson may have the most talent he has ever assembled on offense in his tenure with TCU. But the signature of a Patterson football team is his defense — and this year’s group returns six starters from a unit that was 15th and 19th in the nation by holding teams to just 19.0 PPG and 331.4 total YPG. This group is loaded with speed which will help them slow down the Buckeyes’ spread offense. So far this season, the Horned Frogs have not allowed a Red Zone touchdown. They limited SMU to just 3.36 Yards-Per-Play last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 3.75 YPP in their last game. This game is being played fifteen minutes away from TCU’s campus in the Cowboys’ AT&T Stadium in Arlington which will afford the Horned Frogs a big home advantage — and this should make them dangerous underdogs along with their outstanding defense. TCU has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 “home” games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. Ohio State may be setting themselves up for a letdown in this significant jump in competition as they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a win over a Big Ten opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least 21 points over a conference rival. This will be the last game the teams plays without their head coach Urban Meyer walking the sidelines after he serves his three-game suspension to begin the season. While I don’t think the loss of Meyer on the sidelines is a big deal with interim head coach Ryan Day doing the game-management, there is no question that the team is better with Meyer serving as the leader of the team. But I do not like the overall vibe with this program after they faced all the distractions and negativity in the offseason. They only return twelve starters from last year’s team that finished 12-2 — and, as usual, much of their lost talent went on to the NFL. Sophomore quarterback Dwayne Haskins has looked great so far under center — but he has yet to face an elite defense in hostile territory. The Buckeyes have averaged 7.93 and 8.29 Yards-Per-Play against shaky competition to open their season — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP in their first two games. The defensive secondary will be tested in this game — and this is a vulnerable unit that lost cornerback Denzel Ward among a handful of players that took their talents to the NFL. Not only is this group raw but they only ranked 45th in interceptions last year after ranking 4th in the nation in that category in 2016. Last week’s game finished Under the 58.5 point total — but Ohio State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games following a game that finished Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: This is a tough assignment for the Buckeyes to face a team on the road in a hostile environment who boast an outstanding defense. Ohio State may survive but I expect them to have their hands full against a TCU team that I consider a good long shot bet to win the Big 12 and reach the College Football Playoff. 25* CFB Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Month on the TCU Horned Frogs (204) minus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (203). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (154) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (153). THE SITUATION: Auburn (2-0) remained undefeated so far this season after they crushed Alabama State last Saturday by a 63-9 score. LSU (2-0) is also undefeated so far this year after they shutout Southeast Louisiana last week by a 31-0 score as 41.5-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE AUBURN MINUS THE POINTS: Guz Malzahn’s team should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least five touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 42 points in their last game. Auburn has a strong defense once again this year led by an elite defensive front that has helped them only allow 25 so far this season. These Tigers have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. Auburn returned thirteen starters including their starting quarterback Jarrett Stidham from last year’s group that defeated both Alabama and Georgia while outscoring all their SEC opponents by +153.8 net YPG. Auburn has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against fellow SEC foes. Auburn has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games at home. LSU may be due for a letdown for this showdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win at home where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. These Tigers have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. LSU enjoyed a +3 turnover in that game last week after producing a +2 net turnover margin in their first game of the season against the Miami Hurricanes and their “turnover chain.” But the Regression Gods are fickle and may likely make an appearance against this team that is +5 in the turnover margin after their first two games. Even their +10 net turnover margin from last season is ripe for a return to earth. As it is, LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after enjoying at least a +2 net turnover margin in their last two games. These Tigers return only ten starters from last year’s group that finished 9-4. LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in the month of September.

FINAL TAKE: Auburn will also have revenge on their minds from a 27-23 upset loss at LSU last year where they were 6-point favorites. Look for Auburn play with passion with this motivation for a little vengeance. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Auburn Tigers (154) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (153). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (102) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Baltimore Ravens (101). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (1-0) opened their season in glowing fashion by crushing Buffalo by a 47-3 score last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Cincinnati (1-0) also enters this divisional game with a victory as they defeated the Colts in Indianapolis by a 34-23 score as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The Ravens were perhaps the most impressive looking team in the opening week of the season (and we were on them) — but they look likely to suffer a bit of a letdown now. Baltimore is 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on the road after a win by at least three touchdowns. And while the Ravens held the Bills to just 153 yards of offense which allowed them to outgain them by +116 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +100 yards. Baltimore is also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after failing to allow more than 14 points in their last contest. Now the Ravens travel to Cincinnati on a short week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on field turf. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Cincy defense did allow 380 yards in that contest, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bengals under head coach Marvin Lewis typically overachieve relative to point spread expectations as they are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games in the month of September. And in Cincinnati’s last 5 games against AFC North foes, the Bengals have covered the point spread 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore will certainly be feisty in this game after seeing their playoff aspirations destroyed last year with their 31-27 upset loss at home to the Bengals in the final week of the regular season. But Lewis can call on his team being shutout at home by a 20-0 score to these Ravens in the first meeting between these two teams back on September 10th. The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 trips to Cincinnati. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (102) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Baltimore Ravens (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (481). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-0) is one of the top favorites to reach the Super Bowl this season after their 11-5 campaign last year. Oakland (0-0) looks to recapture past glory by bringing back head coach Jon Gruden after their disappointing 6-10 season last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: I will admit that I am skeptical of some of the moves that Gruden has made since returning to Oakland. Letting Khalil Mack go is not one of them. While the linebacker is one of the best defensive players in the league, the Raiders simply cannot afford him. It is just that simple. Perhaps Oakland can entertain the debate once they move to Las Vegas the wisdom of spending 40% of their salary cap on just two players. The Lions tried that out with Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Ndamukong Suh (OK, that is three players) — and we know how that plan worked out. In the meantime, before the Raiders move to Vegas where the purse strings will be loosened, Gruden’s plan is to lean heavily on veterans who can execute his sophisticated game plans in a new league where practice times are limited during the season. I do expect the Raiders’ offense to come out with plenty of new wrinkles that Gruden has been accumulating in the nine years since he left Tampa Bay for the Monday Night Football television booth. He does have the quarterback who can execute these schemes in Derek Carr. While Oakland was probably not as good as their 12-4 record back in 2016, they are better than what their 6-10 mark last year suggests. Frankly, just the move of removing last year’s offensive coordinator Todd Browning will represent an upgrade for this team. They should play well out of the gate for Gruden as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the month of September including covering the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new season. The Raiders are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on Monday Night Football. Gruden’s teams have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 7 point range. Los Angeles has added the aforementioned Suh along with cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib amongst a handful of splashy free agent acquisitions. I remain skeptical that the sum of these parts will be as good as advertised as this is now a roster with plenty of big personalities — and the formula of buying a Super Bowl has a bad track record in the NFL. This Rams team was exposed in the playoffs when they were upset by Atlanta by a 26-13 score despite playing that game at home. Los Angeles may start this season slow under the weight of Super Bowl expectations as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 opening games to a new season. And while the Rams were 7-1 on the road last year, they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games in the opening two weeks of the season. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 7 appearances on Monday Night Football, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread 6 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams roster is loaded but expecting them to cover a point spread more than a field goal against a quality opponent is simply too much to ask. Don’t be surprised if the Raiders pull the upset in Gruden’s official return to Oakland — but definitely grab the valuable points in this game for some insurance. 25* NFL Bailout Game of the Year with the Oakland Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (480) minus the points versus the New York Jets (479). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) officially begins the Sam Darnold era tonight as they hope to improve on their 5-11 season last year. Detroit (0-0) missed the playoffs last year after their second straight 9-7 campaign.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: Darnold demonstrated that he might be the most advanced of all the incoming rookie quarterbacks in the preseason — but he has still yet to encounter sophisticated defenses with defensive coordinators sticking to vanilla schemes in exhibition games. Rookie head coach Matt Patricia will surely make sure that the Lions’ defense will employ some of the same sophisticated defensive concepts that he used as the defensive coordinator for the New England Patriots. Darnold had turnover issues in college at USC — he threw 13 interceptions in his last fourteen starts. Playing in a hostile environment will also represent a new challenge for Darnold. As it is, the Jets are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range. Additionally, New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games as an underdog. The Jets were only 1-7 straight up on the road last year with four of those losses being against teams with a losing record.  New York was the fifth most penalized team in the league last year which did no favors for their defense which was 25th in the NFL by allowing 352.3 total YPG. The Jets also are likely to start this season slow considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of September. Detroit has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new season with Matthew Stafford at quarterback. The ten-year veteran thrives when playing at home at Ford Field where he has an outstanding 60:19 touchdown-to-interception ratio while averaging 7.78 Yards-Per-Attempt with his passing game over the last two seasons as compared to his more modest 47:26 ratio along with a 6.94 YPA when playing on the road. The Lions were hit hard by injuries particularly on their offensive line as they had twelve different starting lineups on their line while trying twenty-one difference combinations last season. That group begins this season healthy while significantly upgrading their rushing attack by drafting Kerryon Johnson from Auburn while signing LeGarrette Blount from the Eagles. Patricia wants to run the ball more to keep his defense off the field. He inherits a defense that was second in the NFL by forcing turnovers in 16.8% of their opponent’s possessions. Detroit has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Lions have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 appearances on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit did not look very good in the preseason but Patricia did not reveal much of his new plans for the team. A healthy Lions team that runs the ball more should help Stafford be even more effective — and he has developed into one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league as it is. Detroit should overwhelm a Jets team that has not done much to upgrade their roster outside of placing their future in the hands of Darnold. 25* NFL Monday Night Special Feature with the Detroit Lions (480) minus the points versus the New York Jets (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (477) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (478). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-0) begins play under their new head coach Matt Nagy after John Fox was let go after their 5-11 campaign last season. Green Bay (0-0) is happy to get Aaron Rodgers back after he missed seven games last year with a broken collarbone in what ended up being a 7-9 season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: It might look easy to take the Packers with Rodgers healthy again given the quarterback’s 16-4 record in his last twenty starts against Chicago. And without counting the two games that he has had to exit with his two broken collarbone injuries, Green Bay is 94-46 straight-up in Rodgers’ last one-hundred and forty starts. But winning this game at home in Lambeau Field is one thing — and defeating a highly-motivated divisional rival by at least a touchdown is another. There are signs of decline in Rodgers game as his 5.5 yards per completion rate last year was the third lowest amongst NFL starters last year. That decline continues a disturbing trend that has seen Rodgers’ Yards-Per-Attempt average drops to a 6.91 mark over his last three seasons which is not only below the higher numbers earlier in his career but it is also a bit below the 7.24 YPA NFL average. A below-average rushing attack has been one of the culprits as it has decreased the effectiveness of their play-action passing attack. Green Bay averaged just 5.8 Yards-Per-Attempt in Play-Action passes — and they are averaging only 6.4 YPA for these plays since 2015 which is also far below the 10.8 YPA average Rodgers enjoyed at the peak of his tenure with the Packers. Second-year running back Aaron Jones is out for this game with a two-game suspension which leaves the rushing duties primarily to former BYU tailback Jamaal Williams who averaged just 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry in his rookie year. To compound matters, Rodgers’ wide receiving crew may be the weakest he has had in Green Bay yet it is the offensive line that is probably still the weak link with the unit. The Packers’ defense was last in the NFL last year by allowing 2.2 Points Per Drive which makes the 24.0 PPG (26th in the NFL) they allowed look even worse. While the Packers won only seven games last year, they also enjoyed three net close wins decided by one scoring possession. Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home in Lambeau Field. Chicago’s record suffered from three net losses in games decided by 8 points or less. Injuries have riddled this team over the years: they have lost 366 (adjusted) combined games to likely starters who were out because of injuries going back to 2015 which is not only the worst mark in the NFL during the span but well above the 214.4 averaged adjusted number games impacted by injury. This is a healthy Bears team tonight with none of their projected starters dealing with any issues. The Bears’ offense averaged only 16.5 PPG last year but I am expecting significant improvement from this unit this season. Nagy was brought in to play the role of Sean McVay who helped quarterback Jared Goff blossom in his second year. Mitchell Trubisky showed glimpses of his enormous potential last year but was often held back by the conservative play-calling of the offense. Trubisky also lacked weapons at wide receiver — and this was addressed in the offseason with Chicago signing Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and tight end Trey Burton in the offseason. Those targets will help open things up for running backs Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. Nagy and his offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich revealed very little of their plans for their new offseason with plenty of Run-Pass-Options expected — so Green Bay’s defense may be caught by a few surprises tonight. The defense was a top-ten unit last year in both points allowed (20.0 PPG) and yards allowed (319.1 YPG) — and they have added Kahlil Mack to provide the pressure from the edge this unit has lacked. Mack has only been with the team seven days but he should certainly be on the field for all the passing downs. The Packers tend to play closer than expected games against familiar foes as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against NFC opponents while also failing to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC North rivals.

FIANL TAKE: Chicago lost both games to the Packers last year by 21 points at Lambeau and then by 7 points at home at Soldier Field. While expecting them to pull the upset may be too much to ask, I do expect a feisty battle from them — with a healthy roster — against a foe they are very familiar with. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (477) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (470) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (469). Kansas City (0-0) begins the Patrick Mahomes era at quarterback this afternoon after they made a change at quarterback after another early exit in the playoffs after a 10-6 regular season campaign. Los Angeles (0-0) hopes to get off to a faster start this year after they finished 9-7 last year after enduring a horrendous start to the 2017 season under new head coach Anthony Lynn.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Chargers closed out last year winning nine of their last twelve games as well as six of their last seven games so there is plenty of optimism inside this franchise. This opening game was certainly circled not only because of the imperative to get off to a better start but also because Los Angeles was swept by the Chiefs last year. The Chargers lost in Kansas City by a 24-10 score on September 24th before then losing by a 30-13 score at home on December 16th despite being a 1-point favorite. Despite that loss, Los Angeles outscored their visitors by +9.9 PPG at home (despite playing in that soccer stadium without rabid fan support). The Chargers clearly feel more comfortable playing in StubHub Stadium as they outgained by their opponents by +75.0 net YPG. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games. The Chargers are also 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 opening games to a new season. Kansas City decided to move on from Alex Smith at quarterback after they became enthralled with the passing potential of their second-year QB Patrick Mahomes. But the most under-appreciated aspect of “check-down Charlie” was that Smith did a great job in protecting the football. Smith threw only 5 interceptions last year. Head coach Andy Reid may be humming some Cinderella “Don’t Know What You Got (Till It’s Gone)” as Mahomes’ potent arm also risks many more turnovers — especially when playing in a hostile environment. Remember that Mahomes played in only one game last year — and this will be his first professional start. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. The bigger problem for this team is their defense that will have seven new starters on the field this afternoon. The team will be without their leader in safety Eric Berry who is out with a sore heel. Berry was injured for last year which contributed to the KC defense ranking 29th against the pass and 25th against the run. When the Chiefs went on the road last year, they allowed their home hosts to generate 389.9 total YPG. Mahomes will have to outduel Philip Rivers in this one — and the veteran QB was outstanding last year by passing for more than 4500 yards to rank second in the NFL while tossing 28 touchdown passes. 

FINAL TAKE: With Mahomes making his first professional start on the road and the Chargers very motivated after suffering not only two losses to the Chiefs last year but eight straight losses to their AFC West rivals with their last victory being way back on December 29th, 2013. What all those losses to Kansas City have in common was Alex Smith under center delivering the daggers to their defense. Smith is now in Washington which gives LA a clean slate to exact a small measure of revenge. 25* NFL AFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (470) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (469). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (456) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (455). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (0-0) takes the field again after they lost in Philadelphia to the Eagles in the NFC Conference Championship Game. San Francisco (0-0) has renewed optimism after winning their final five games to finish 6-10 last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: The Vikings were very tough when playing at home in the Metrodome last year. Minnesota was 7-1 at home last season with an average winning margin of +11.4 PPG. While the offense scored a healthy 25.2 PPG, the defense was absolutely nasty when playing at home as they held their guests to just 13.8 PPG while limiting them to only 260.7 total YPG. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when laying 7 points or less. The offense should be better this season. The team has upgraded at quarterback by dumping all their QBs from last year and getting out their paycheck to sign Kirk Cousins from Washington. While Case Keenum was a pleasant surprise last year, Cousins is a more dangerous passer with a host of intriguing weapons at his disposal. And don’t forget the team gets back their spark-plug in Dalvin Cook who is tearing up the league before he suffered his season-ending injury. The Vikings usually start strong as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of September. San Francisco is very excited about continuing the Jimmy Garappolo era after he won all five of his starts last season. But the former Patriot is likely to see the Regression Gods make an appearance with his gaudy numbers from last year — and his subpar 7-to-5 touchdown to interception ratio from last season looms as a red flag. Garappolo still lacks a tall target from his cadre of receivers for Red Zone action — and the team received terrible news when their big offseason signing of running back Jerick McKinnon from these Vikings when he tore his ACL to end his season. The 49ers starting running back this afternoon will be journeyman Alfred Morris which is a bad sign when facing this stout Vikings defense. The San Fran defense remains a work in progress this year with pass rush being perhaps the biggest concern. The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games in the first-half of the season. The 49ers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing on field turf. And in their last 9 games as an underdog in the +3.5 to +9.5 point range, San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers are a trendy sleeper team to make a playoff run in the NFC — but they will likely have a rude awakening traveling east to play in Minnesota for this early game. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Vikings (456) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (460) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (459). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (0-0) enters this season with a sense of urgency after missing the playoffs despite a 9-7 season. Buffalo (0-0) seized the Ravens’ final slot in the AFC playoffs in the final week of the season when they ended the year with a 9-7 mark and eked them out in the tie-breaker before losing a tight game in Jacksonville the next week in the AFC Wildcard round.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore lost five games last year decided by one-possession including that last game of the regular season against the Bengals where they blew a 4th quarter lead by allowing a 44-yard touchdown pass with just 44 seconds left in that game. The Ravens returned this season with a sense of purpose led by quarterback Joe Flacco who was able to workout during the entire offseason after missing last year’s preseason after recovering from his ACL injury. Flacco seems poised to have his best season in years. The defense was outstanding last year including registering three shutouts during the season. Baltimore led the NFL with 3 takeaways including ten forced turnovers in the first two weeks of the season. The Ravens have covered the point sported in 15 of their last 20 games in the first two weeks of the season under head coach John Harbaugh — and this includes them covering the point spread in seven of their last ten opening weeks to a new season. Facing this defense should be a scary proposition for Buffalo who will be starting quarterback Nathan Peterman on the road who was an interception machine in his lone start last year by throwing five picks in the first half against the Chargers. While the Bills made the playoffs last year, this team looks likely to take a number of steps backward this season. QB Tyrod Taylor was steady under center for the team last year while perhaps doing his best work by not turning the ball over. The franchise moved on from Taylor by drafting Josh Allen in the first-round of the NFL draft but the rookie from Wyoming demonstrated he was not ready to start in the NFL in the preseason. The Bills also have significant issues on their offensive line. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on field turf — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Baltimore.

FINAL TAKE: While Buffalo stole the Ravens playoff spot last season, these teams look to be moving in the opposite direction. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Kickoff with the Baltimore Ravens (460) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (459). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (462) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (461). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (0-0) returns to the field again after losing in the AFC Championship Game in which they lost in New England by a 24-20 score. New York (0-0) has undertaken a new start after crashing and burning last year with a 3-13 record.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Jaguars return 21 of 22 starters from last year — but one of those starters remains embattled quarterback Blake Bortles. The team signed him to a two-year extension after he did not commit a turnover in the playoffs. However, Bortles threw 13 interceptions in the regular season (7th most in the NFL) while only attempting 547 passes through the playoffs which was his lowest amount since his rookie season. Significant issues remain for this quarterback for which it is rumored that head coach Doug Marrone and his coaching staff limits his practice time against the Jags’ defense so as to not impair his confidence. Short-to-medium range accuracy remains an issue for the former Central Florida quarterback while his capacity to read NFL wide receiver routes is still a question mark. And while all quarterbacks struggle under pressure, Bortles’ becomes almost completely ineffective against quality pass rushes with his Passer Rating of 96.0 dropping to 55.2 — and that 40.8 drop in Passer Rating under pressure is the biggest collapse of all NFL quarterbacks. Bortles is also without one of his key weapons with wide receiver Marquise Lee out the season with a knee injury. Of course, the strength of this Jacksonville defense is their defense that was 2nd in the NFL in points allowed (16.8 PPG) and total yards allowed (286.1 YPG). But the Regression Gods are likely to make a visit with this team given those outstanding numbers — especially for a pass defense that was historically excellent. A favorable strength of schedule helped prop up those numbers last year. And run defense was an issue as they allowed opposing rushers to average 4.3 Yards-Per-Carry. The formula for success for this team was for the defense to ensure that they took a lead which allowed Bortles to execute most of his passes from play-action plays. But this team is not equipped to come-from-behind. The Jags only won one game last year when trailing at halftime — and they were 2-5 straight-up when their opponents scored first. That is not a good sign when playing on the road where they were just 4-4 last year with questionable losses at Arizona, San Francisco and Tennessee. Jacksonville failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against NFC opponents. The Jaguars have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games in expected close games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range. And the Jaguars tend to start the new season slow as they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games in the month of September — including failing to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening games to the season. New York should make significant improvements this season being just one year removed from their 11-5 campaign in 2016-17. The Giants suffered four net close losses decided by one possession. Furthermore, the team was ravaged by injuries particularly on offense with their wide receivers and their offensive line. QB Eli Manning will have a significant upgrade of talent in his huddle today with Odell Beckham, Jr. healthy and happy with his new contract along with rookie Saquon Barkley at running back along with a healthy line that has added left tackle Nate Solder from New England. The defense hopes to return to their outstanding 2016 form under new defensive coordinator James Bettcher after the unit was a dysfunctional mess as they rebelled against former head coach Bob McAdoo. Butcher brought in a former player with the Cardinals in defensive end Kareem Martin who will serve as a de-facto coach on the field. The Giants are not home underdogs very often in the Manning era — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as a home underdog.

FINAL TAKE: This is a good opening situation to invest in with Jacksonville a bit overrated after their deep playoff run last year while New York being undervalued after they hot rock bottom last year. Grab the points and don’t be surprised if the Giants pull the upset. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (462) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arizona State Sun Devils (394) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (393). THE SITUATION: Arizona State (1-0) began the Herm Edwards coaching era in strong fashion as they crushed UTSA by a 49-7 score last Saturday as a 17-point favorite. Michigan State (1-0) looked wobbly at home last week as they outlasted Utah State by a 38-31 score despite being a 23.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUN DEVILS PLUS THE POINTS: The Spartans are supposed to have an outstanding defensive secondary with all five of the starters from their 4-2-5 scheme returning from last year — but they surrendered 319 passing yards to the Aggies despite playing that game in East Lansing. Michigan State is just 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. On paper, Sparty looks very good this year with nineteen starters returning from last year’s team that finished 10-3 with their 42-17 win over Washington State in the Holiday Bowl. But considering that they only outgained their Big Ten opponents by +34.6 net YPG, head coach Mark Dantonio’s team probably overachieved — and they certainly benefited from four net close wins in games decided by one scoring possession. Their offensive line was a weak link last season — and they face an intriguing Sun Devils defensive front with Renell Wren in the middle who almost single-handedly upset Washington last year with a performance that put him on the radar of NFL scouts. Michigan State has not been reliable away from home as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road while also failing to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Sparty has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when they are laying the points including failing to cover the point spread in four straight games on the road laying 7 or less points. Additionally, Michigan State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams outside the Big Ten — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against Pac-12 opponents. I am not a big believer in Edwards returning to the coaching sidelines after his cushy gig at ESPN but he has adopted a CEO model for his responsibilities while installing two good coordinators in Rob Likens on offense and former San Diego State defensive coordinator Danny Gonzalez on defense. So far so good with Gonzalez’s side of the formula as they limited the Roadrunners to just 221 yards of offense last week. Arizona State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The offense is led by senior Manny Wilkins who is a dangerous gunslinger when healthy. The third-year starter has a dynamic group of wide receivers led by a potential All-American in N’Keal Harry. Wilkins completed 16 of 24 passes last week for 237 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions last week. Wilkins has helped the Sun Devils cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games at home. Arizona State has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against Big Ten opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The trip out west can be very precarious for Big Ten teams — especially for nationally televised games at night. The forecast is for a very hot night in Tempe as well which will only make the Spartans more uncomfortable. Expect a close game. 10* CFB Michigan State-Arizona State ESPN Special with the Arizona State Sun Devils (394) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (393). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Stanford Cardinal (388) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (387). THE SITUATION: USC (1-0) enters this game coming off a 43-21 win over UNLV last week as a 24.5-point favorite. Stanford (1-0) also won their opening game of the season with their 31-10 win over San Diego State as a 14-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINAL MINUS THE POINTS: Stanford’s defense flexed their muscles by holding the Aztecs to only 263 yards of offense. The Cardinal returns six starters from a group that gave up too much yardage but still tied for 34th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 22.7 PPG. Stanford was 9-5 last year but finished their season with a loss to these Trojans in the Pac-12 Championship Game by a 31-28 score before then losing to TCU in the Alamo Bowl by a 39-37 score. Four of the five losses for the Cardinal last season were by a field goal or less — so they were very close to a very nice season. They return nine starters on offense including junior quarterback K.J. Costello who completed 21 of 31 passes for 332 yards with four touchdown passes. The team is led by senior Bryce Love who is a Heisman Trophy candidate after using for 2118 yards last year despite being hobbled with a host of injuries last season. Love rushed for only 29 yards last week on 18 carries — and Stanford as a team managed only 50 rushing yards but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. The Cardinal host this game where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Stanford has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. USC has been inconsistent under fourth-year head coach Clay Helton as they are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread. Too often, this USC team plays uninspired — and that is a risk against a Cardinal team they defeated twice last year with a 42-24 win on September 9th before following that up in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Trojans finished 11-3 last year after losing to Ohio State in the Citrus Bowl by a 24-7 score. Those eleven wins included a fortunate three net close wins in games decided by one possession. Thirteen starters return but this group lost a lot of talent to the NFL including their QB Sam Darnold who will be starting on Monday for the Jets. USC is relying on a true freshman quarterback in J.T. Daniels — and this will be his first game playing in a hostile environment with it being a nationally televised night game to boot. As it is, the Trojans are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road — and they gave failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. USC has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the month of September — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog which includes their last three road games when getting up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Stanford has had this game circled all off-season given their two losses to USC last year. Both those games were away from home. Playing this game in Palo Alto with an experienced quarterback facing a true freshman should make a huge difference this team that is better-coached under David Shaw than the Trojans under Helton. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Month with the Stanford Cardinal (388) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (387). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) Warhawks (380) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (379). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (1-0) began their season by pulling the upset on the road at UCLA last Saturday by a 26-17 score as a 14-point underdog. Miami (OH) (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 35-28 upset loss at home to Marshall as a 1-point favorite last week. This game will be played at the home of the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium for these neighboring Ohio rivals.

REASONS TO TAKE MIAMI (OH) PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Cincinnati is likely to experience a letdown after traveling out west to shock the Bruins in the opening game of the Chip Kelly era out there. The Bearcats were actually outgained by -2 yards in that game but controlled the time of possession against the up-tempo Kelly offense by keeping the UCLA defense on the field for 34:21 minutes of that game. But Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset victory as a road underdog. The Bearcats have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win while also covering the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Cincinnati returned 12 starters from last year’s 4-8 squad that was outgained by -77 net YPG in American Athletic Conference play last year. The Bearcats offense was just tied for 110th in the FBS by scoring 20.9 PPG which is perhaps why second-year head coach Luke Fickell decided to tap redshirt freshman Desmond Ridder as his starting quarterback over senior QB Hayden Moore. Ridder completed 13 of 24 passes but managed only 100 passing yards. Cincy lacked game-breakers on offense last year — and generating only 304 yards last week against UCLA did little to alleviate those concerns despite sophomore running back Michael Warren II rushing for 142 yards while needing 35 carries to get there. The Bearcats allowed only 306 yards last week which might speak more to the state of the Bruins’ offense implementing Kelly’s schemes (and their senior transfer quarterback Wilton Speight left that game with an injury) than it did about the quality of their defense. Cincinnati allowed at least 31 points eight times last season while ranking 100th in the nation in 3rd Down defense by allowing opponents to generate first downs in 43.3% of those plays. Moving forward, the Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games against non-conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. I don’t love this team playing away from home for the second straight week — especially with a rookie QB. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games played on a neutral field. Miami (OH) should come out inspired as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after suffering an upset loss at home as the favorite — and this includes them covering the point spread in three of those last four situations. This Warhawks team may be a sleeping giant with sixteen starters returning from last year’s team that finished 5-7. Fifth-year head coach Chuck Martin has to see his team through in close games as they are an awful 5-18 in one-possession games in his tenure after last week’s 7-point loss. While it would be wrong to excuse many of the mental mistakes that have cost this team in these close games, the Regression Gods do tend to make appearances for teams that suffer a disproportionate number of losses in close games. This is a better team than their record has indicated over the last few seasons — which is why they might explode with a very nice season before things are said and done. They outgained the Thundering Herd in that loss with their senior QB Gus Ragland completed 25 of 46 passes for 357 yards with three TD passes and no interceptions. The Redhawks rushed for only 87 yards last week despite their top five rushers returning from last year’s team along with Maurice Thomas who missed last year with an injury. Miami has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. And despite their disappointing record in one-possession games, they have covered the point spread in expected close games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Redhawks have a final chip on their shoulder with them being motivated to avenge a 21-17 upset loss to the Bearcats last season as 3.5-point home favorites last September 16th. It will be very easy to Martin to motivate his team this week — and defeating this Cincinnati team will go a long way to make up for the close losses that they have suffered even to begin this season. 25* CFB Non-Conference Revenge Game of the Year Miami (OH) Warhawks (380) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (379). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the South Carolina Gamecocks (348) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (347). THE SITUATION: Georgia (1-0) opened their season last week with an easy 45-0 shutout win over Austin Peay. South Carolina (1-0) also impressed with a 49-15 win at home over Coastal Carolina last Saturday as a 31-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GAMECOCKS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bulldogs fancy themselves as a Top-Five college football program after reaching the National Championship Game last year. The Georgia football team rarely lacks for talent — but consistency and winning under pressure situations has constantly plagued this program. They lost a ton of talent to the NFL in the offseason while returning thirteen starters. While third-year head coach Kirby Smart is recruiting very well, there are some big pieces to replace from last year’s group. The offense lost an All-American left tackle in Isaiah Wynn while the defense must replace standout leaders in linebackers Roquan Smith and Lorenzo Carter along with free safety Dominic Sanders who all took their talents to the NFL. The team also has a potential quarterback controversy brewing with 5-star freshman Justin Fields challenging sophomore Jake Fromm for playing time. This is a fragile foundation for a program that tends to suffer from over-confidence. That is a dangerous combination when facing this Gamecocks team against which they are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 encounters which includes going just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Columbia. South Carolina enters this game with a bunch of momentum as they generated 561 yards in their win over the Chanticleers. The Gamecocks are 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 40 points. Furthermore, South Carolina is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a win by at least 20 points while also having covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games after a win by at least 20 points. The Gamecocks return fourteen starters from their team that finished 9-4 after defeating Michigan in the Outback Bowl by a 26-19 score. The offense returns 98% of their rushing yards along with 80% of their receiving yards and 100% of their passing yards with junior Jake Bentley once again under center. This is the best team that head coach Will Muschamp has put together in his three years at South Carolina — and he is recruiting better than Steve Spurrier was at the end of his tenure. Injuries held this team back last year as they lost 42 games to injuries from prospective starters. They remain very tough at home where they are 50-14 straight-up over their last sixty-four games. The Gamecocks are also 7-1-3 ATS in their last 11 games in SEC play.

FINAL TAKE: South Carolina lost by a 24-10 score in Athens last year as a 24-point underdog back on November 4th. This Gamecocks team looks improved while that Bulldogs team is a step to two behind last year’s team at this point of the season. With South Carolina home underdogs getting around 10 points, take the dogs while expecting a much closer game than expected for Georgia. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the South Carolina Gamecocks (348) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (347). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (452). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (0-0) will have their Super Bowl Ring Ceremony at home at Liberty Financial Field as they open the NFL season at home after defeating New England in last year’s Super Bowl. Atlanta (0-0) will be playing with revenge on their minds after losing in this building last January 13th in a 15-10 loss to the Eagles in the NFC Divisional Round of the Playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE ATLANTA PLUS THE POINTS: The Falcons have spent the entire offseason stewing about that loss as they had the ball inside the 10-yard line with the opportunity to win that game before failing to reach pay dirt in four plays. That final series of plays demonstrated the difficulties Atlanta had all season in the Red Zone. While the Falcons were 8th in the NFL in total offense by averaging 364.8 total YPG, they dropped to 15th in the league by scoring 22.1 PPG. Most of that blame has been placed on their first-year offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian — and I consider those criticisms very fair for a cronyism hire for Dan Quinn with both coaches in the Pete Carroll coaching tree. Sarkisian’s only previous NFL experience was a Quarterback’s Coach with the Raiders under Bill Musgrove in middle-aughts before serving as Carroll’s OC at USC before taking that head coaching job when Carroll dashed to Seattle before NCAA penalties were handed down on the Trojans’ program. Sarkisian was last seen serving as the OC for Alabama when they lost to Clemson in the 2017 National Championship Game when he took over for the departing Lane Kiffin. While I presume my feelings for Sark have not been hidden, I do think he will improve with his Red Zone play-calling — and the team adding wide receiver Calvin Ridley in the 1st Round of the draft gives him another weapon. The fact remains that the Falcons have lost to the Super Bowl Champions in the playoffs in each of the last two seasons. This is a good team on both sides of the football who are well-positioned t make another run. Their offense last year was destined to take a step back after a historical 2016-17 campaign where they averaged 33.8 PPG. The deeper metrics suggest that quarterback Matt Ryan may have actually had a better season last year — he was victimized by five tipped balls that resulted in interceptions which were the most any QB has endured since the 2010 season. The defense steadily improved last year before flexing their muscles in the playoffs by completing the Rams offensive attack in Los Angeles in their 26-13 win in the Wild Card round before liming the Eagles to just 15 points and only 334 yards of offense the next week. That playoff game is when Philly unveiled the Nick Foles’ offense that featured head coach Doug Pederson’s version of the Run-Pass-Option offense that Foles ran previously under Chip Kelly — and that offense would go on to destroy the Minnesota and New England defenses. Perhaps the most important thing that Quinn has done this offseason was address a subpar Special Teams unit. Quinn hired a new assistant Special Teams coach in Mayur Chaudhari while focused the third day of the draft on potential new special teamers — and the team added a Pro Bowl Special Teamer in free agent Justin Bethel from Arizona. Atlanta begins the season almost completely healthy with zero players on Injured Reserve (as opposed to teams like Indianapolis who have 20 players on IR). The Falcons usually start strong as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of September. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games as an underdog getting 7 or fewer points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 13 opportunities to play on Thursday Night Football, the Falcons have covered the point spread 11 times. I am not down on this Philadelphia team — but I do think the prospects of them suffering a letdown after their celebratory offseason is very high. The team is missing two key pieces in this game with QB Carson Wentz still out with his torn ACL and wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey doubtful with a shoulder injury. The Eagles are confronting a challenging history where seven of the last seventeen Super Bowl winners failed to even make the playoffs the next season. Remember that this Philadelphia defense surrendered over 500 yards of passing yards to Tom Brady before lifting the Lombardi Trophy. The Eagles defense begins this season with questions with their weak-side linebacker and their nickel cornerback.

FINAL TAKE: Ring ceremonies are tough on the home teams as it is very hard to get their minds off of celebrating last year’s accomplishments while their opponents are completely focused on the task at hand. With the Falcons filled with revenge as well, they should be very motivated to find a small measure of redemption from their disappointment from last January. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (219) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (220). THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (0-0) enters this season coming off a 9-4 campaign that concluded with a 30-21 loss to Oklahoma State in the Camping World Bowl. Florida State (0-0) looks to rebound from a disappointing 7-6 season that ended on a positive note when they crushed Southern Miss by a 42-13 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOKIES PLUS THE POINTS: I am not sure why the Seminoles are being given so much respect that they are laying a touchdown against one of high quality program like Virginia Tech. Jimbo Fisher jumped ship to Texas A&M because in large measure of the financial package the Aggies were offering him to make College Station his home. But I would think that Fisher stays at Florida State if he was encouraged about his team’s prospects moving forward. Only twelve starters return from last year’s team. The Seminoles were snakebite by injuries as they lost 39 games to projected starters being hit with the injury bug including their starting quarterback Deondre Francois. But when do the excuses end for a football program that has won only ten of their last nineteen games in ACC play? The Seminoles lost their usual handful of players from that last year’s group to the NFL. They have hired Willie Taggart to be their head coach after his success at South Florida got him the job at Oregon last year that he abandoned with the Seminoles offer. Taggart is installing new systems on both sides of the football so there will likely be growing pains. He inherits players that were used in a Run-Pass Option offense so these players may have some difficulties moving to Taggart’s up-tempo power spread attack. This is a tricky proposition for a team that is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the moths of September. The defense lost six of their top seven tacklers and return only four starters. Additionally, Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range — and they have failed to cover their last three home games with the over/under in that range. The Seminoles are also 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in conference action. Furthermore, Taggart-coached teams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 7.5 to 14 point range — and his teams have also failed to cover the point spread in 7  of their last 11 home games with the Total in the 52.5 to 56 point range. Virginia Tech returns twelve starters as well on a team that sees 3/4ths of the roster being sophomores or younger. But this young group are Justin Fuente players in his third year in Blacksburg — and teams often make a big jump in the third year of new coach’s tenure. The Hokies still have their rock on defense in defensive coordinator Bud Foster in his 32nd season as a coach. He oversaw a team that ranked 4th in the nation by holding teams to just 14.8 PPG. While it might be too much to ask of this group to replicate that feat, this should once again be an outstanding defense under Foster. The offense is led by sophomore QB Josh Jackson who made 13 starts last year. He passed for 2991 yards last year while posting a nice 20 touchdown passes to 9 interception ratio. A mediocre offensive line made things difficult for him last year — but both he and that line that returns three starters including a 6’7 beast at right tackle in Yoshua Nijman should be improved this year. This will be the first time since moving to Virginia Tech that Fuente will have his starting quarterback back under center. The Hokies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of September — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 34 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Virginia Tech may have a ceiling regarding how good their football program can be — but they more consistently come close to hitting that ceiling year-after-year. Florida State seems to have taken a step back — particularly on their offensive line. The Hokies likely have the better defense in this game which should help them keep things very close even on the road. 25* CFB ESPN Game of the Month with the Virginia Tech Hokies (219) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (220). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (217) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (218). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-0) returns to the field after the finished last year with a 10-3 record after a 34-24 loss to Wisconsin. LSU (0-0) completed a 9-4 campaign last season with a 21-17 loss to Notre Dame. This game is played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in the home of the Dallas Cowboys in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES MINUS THE POINTS: Miami had National Championship aspirations in the month of November last year after winning their first ten games of the season. But we expected their bubble to burst — and they lost their last three games of the season with an upset loss at Pittsburgh before getting crushed by Clemson in the ACC Championship Game and then losing to the Badgers in their bowl game. But this team was also hampered with a slew of injuries by the end of the year that exposed the lack of depth that head coach Mark Richt has yet to establish in South Beach. Two outstanding recruiting classes is getting Richt closer to where he wants to be — and his team is pretty much healthy as they begin this season. They return fourteen starters from last year’s team including their fifth year senior quarterback, Malik Rosier. This is the best team Richt has had since moving from Georgia to Miami — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams outside the ACC. The Hurricanes have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games as the favorite — including covering the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points. And in their last 6 games in the month of September, Miami  has covered the point spread 5 times. LSU is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in the month of September which might speak to the preparation skills of their head coach Ed Orgeron. Together, these team trends produce our specific 31-13-1 ATS combined angle for this situation. The journeyman has proven capable of taking over teams in decline as he has served as the interim head coach both for the Tigers and with USC but his head coaching stint at Ole Miss was uninspiring. He could not make things work out with offensive wunderkind Matt Canada last year as he invested in too much micromanaging which led to Canada departing to Maryland (where he just coached the Terrapins to an upset win over Texas serving as their interim head coach to the suspended D.J. Durkin). I cannot argue with the conventional wisdom that this LSU program is in decline. The recruiting is down a bit with two of the key additions to this roster being graduate transfers from the football hot bed that is Texas Tech. Orgeron also suspended a handful of players for this game including a returning starter and emerging star in sophomore linebacker Tyler Taylor. This team has only four senior starters this season of the ten starters they returned from last year. As always, this team took significant hits by losing players that moved on to the NFL. They probably made a good move in grabbing a disgruntled graduated senior quarterback in Joe Burrow who transferred from Ohio State after losing the quarterback battle with Dwayne Haskins. It might speak more to the sorry state of the LSU offense that is so easy to see a fifth senior who has never started a game in college as an obvious upgrade at the position — but I remain skeptical of the team’s likely move to a more pass-happy attack under new offensive coordinator Steve Emsinger. That decision may speak more to the lack of a bell-cow running back on the roster.

FINAL TAKE: LSU lost their first four games vis-a-vis the point spread by -16.5 PPG before covering the point spread in their next seven games by +7.8 PPG. I think the former numbers speak to Orgeron’s acumen to prepare his team early while that good seven-game stretch speaking to the public overreacting to a few losing tickets with LSU’s name on it. The action on this game is almost split (Miami has a narrow edge from my latest scan). Look for a better-prepared Hurricanes team to take care of business. 10* CFB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (217) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.

No play -- I mistakenly loaded another game into this Middle Tennessee slot. Sorry about the error.

Thanks,

Frank