At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (268) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (267). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-1) looks to build off their 26-9 upset victory at New Orleans as a 4.5-point underdog two Sundays ago on October 1st. Detroit (4-1) has won three games in a row after their 42-24 win against Carolina as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit only outgained the Panthers by 35 net yards last week but took advantage of a +3 net turnover margin. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 37 road games after playing a game at home where both teams scored at least 24 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 40 games on the road after winning two games in a row. Jared Goff was very effective in the second half of the season once he stopped throwing interceptions. But Goff was at his best at home all season including high-profile losses on Thanksgiving to Buffalo and in a shootout (loss) in September to Philadelphia (before that team’s continued in-season improvement). At home, the Lions scored 33 Points-Per-Game with Goff averaging 274 passing Yards-Per-Game with 23 touchdown passes, only three interceptions, and a Quarterback Rating of 110. But on the road, Detroit’s scoring dropped to 19 PPG with Goff averaging 245 passing YPG with a mere four touchdown passes, four interceptions, and a QBR of 87. These disparate home/road splits are continuing this season with Goff enjoying a 113.1 QBR with a 72.9% completion percentage while averaging 267.3 passing YPG with seven touchdown passes and just two interceptions in three starts at home — but in his two starts on the road, he has 90.9 QBR with a 65.1% completion percentage while averaging  231.5 passing YPG with only two touchdown passes and one interception. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 road games when favored by up to seven points. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win on the road. My main question for this team in the offseason regarding whether they were being too quickly dismissed by critics in their first season after Tom Brady’s retirement. The defense still has stalwarts like nose tackle Vita Vea, linebackers Devin White, Lavonte David, and Shaquille Barrett along with cornerback Carlton Davis III and safety Antoine Winfield, Jr. from their outstanding defense in their 2021 Super Bowl championship team. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin remain one of the best wide receivers in the league.  The team signed the much-maligned Baker Mayfield as a free agent who has not met the expectations of being a former number-one pick in the NFL draft. But no one can question Mayfield’s toughness and he is much more popular inside the locker room than he by the media and fans. He does have a history of playing better as an underdog with a chip on his shoulder. With Brady gone and previous head coach Bruce Arians no longer making his presence felt, second-year head coach Todd Bowles has the opportunity to define this team in his image. As we turn the corner in the first corner of the season, the Buccaneers look like a pretty good football team. Their defense is holding their opponents to only 318.5 total YPG which is resulting in only 17.0 PPG. That unit ranks sixth in the league using the Defensive DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders. Mayfield is completing 69.6 of his passes with seven touchdown passes and only two interceptions — and his QBR of 101.5 is the highest of his career.

FINAL TAKE: I am higher on Bowles as a head coach than many who remember his final few seasons as the head coach of the New York Jets — but he led them to a 10-6 record in his first season before the dysfunction of that organization took over. His teams have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 14 or more points. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (268) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (267). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (263) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (264). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (3-2) has won three of their last four games after their 23-16 upset win against Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Jacksonville (3-2) has won two games in a row after completing their two-game sweep in London with a 25-20 upset win against Buffalo as a 5.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Jaguars return home as conquering heroes after their upset victory against the Bills — but one of the reasons we were on Jacksonville last week was the situational edge they enjoyed with that being their second week in London while Buffalo was still dealing with potential jet lag and getting accustomed to being in England. Now this Jags team becomes the first team to play an NFL game after two straight games played across the pond. While this is unprecedented, it is interesting to note that all 11 teams that returned to the US to play in a game without a bye the first week back all found themselves trailing to tied in the fourth quarter. If even these teams experienced a travel hangover, Jacksonville is likely to come out sluggish this afternoon. They controlled that game against the Bills by generating 29 first downs with their offense on the field for 38:12 minutes — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after being on offense for at least 34 minutes and gaining 24 or more first downs. They ran for 196 yards last week against Buffalo — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. They only gave up seven points in the first half of both their games in London — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. they return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 46 home games in October. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against a fellow AFC South rival. Gardner Minshew stepped up in relief for an injured Anthony Richardson to complete 11 of 14 passes for 155 yards in leading the team to victory. At this point in his career, Minshew may be the best backup in the league. He is completing 68.7% of his passes this season — and he has not thrown an interception in his 83 attempts this year. He does not lack confidence — and he has running back Jonathan Taylor in the backfield again with his contract dispute settled. Taylor will probably split time again with Zack Moss who was outstanding last week by gaining 165 yards on the ground last week with two touchdowns. The Colts averaged 7.15 Yards-Per-Play last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after generating 6.5 or more YPP in their last contest. This is a solid football team under rookie head coach Shane Steichen. They rank 13th in the NFL in Offensive DVOA and 16th in Defensive DVOA using the metrics from Football Outsiders — and those are surprising rankings for a team that finished 4-10-1 last year. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points as the dog.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars are many people’s sleeper team this season — so their victory against Buffalo confirms that prior belief for these folks. But after only outgaining their opponents by +4.1 net YPG last season, they are only outgaining their opponents this year by +14.2 YPG and outscoring them by +0.6 PPG, down from their +3.2 net PPG margin last year. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when laying up to seven points. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (263) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (160) minus the point(s) versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (159). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (4-1) looks to rebound from their 28-7 upset loss to Troy as a 1-point favorite on September 30th. Marshall (4-1) also lost their first game of the season in their previous game in a 48-41 loss at North Carolina State as a 6.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINT(S): Georgia State should rebound tonight as they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss to a Sun Belt Conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 17 or more points. They had covered the point spread in their two previous games — and they have covered the point sprees in 25 of their last 34 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. And while their game with the Trojans finished Under the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. After three straight winning seasons, the Panthers dropped to 4-8 last year. My main question for this team in my offseason deep dive was whether this program was trending in the wrong direction in the seventh-year under head coach Shawn Elliott — or were they simply snake-bit by losing all five of their games decided by seven points or less by a combined 18 points. One-third of the roster was turned over either from transfers or exhausted eligibility — but senior dual-threat quarterback Darren Grainger returned after rushing for 908 non-sacking rushing yards and tossing 19 touchdown passes with only four interceptions. With an upset win at Coastal Carolina part of their 4-1 record, it appears that Georgia State remains a perennial contender to play in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game while playing in a bowl game. The Panthers stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home gams when favored by three points or less. Marshall may be deflated after losing their opportunity to upset a Power Five Conference opponent. They have played three straight games decided by one possession — and they have a showdown looming with James Madison on Thursday. As it is, the Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game where both teams combined for 60 or more points. Marshall’s defensive numbers are quite good in defending the pass as they rank in Opponent Passing Success Rate Allowed — but that may speak to the quality of their early schedule with games against Albany, East Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Old Dominion that are not known for their dynamic passing attacks. The Wolfpack passed for 265 yards against them while generating 401 total yards and those 48 points. The Thundering Herd have forced three turnovers in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after forcing two or more turnovers in their last game and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after forcing three or more turnovers in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia State will have revenge on their mind from a 28-23 loss at Marshall last November 26th. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games in October — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in October — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. 10* CFB Marshall-Georgia State ESPN2 Special with the Georgia State Panthers (160) minus the point(s) versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (159). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Air Force Falcons (182) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (181). THE SITUATION: Air Force (5-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 49-10 thrashing of San Diego State as a 10.5-point favorite on September 30th. Wyoming (5-1) has won three games in a row after their 24-19 upset victory against Fresno State as a 6-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS: After upsetting the undefeated Bulldogs last week despite only outgaining them by five net yards, look for the Cowboys to experience a big letdown this week. We were on this Wyoming team last week — but they have been fortunate to beat Texas Tech and Appalachian State in wild endings despite getting outgained in yardage in both games. The Cowboys are only outscoring their opponents by +2.0 net Points-Per-Game — and they are getting outgained by -49.5 net Yards-Per-Game. Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 58 games after winning three of their last four games including a failure to cover the point spread in five of those last seven circumstances. Now this team goes on the road for just the second time this season after playing five of their first six games at War Memorial in Laramie where they enjoy an altitude edge. They may be without their top running back Harrison Waylee for this contest after he left last week’s game with a lower-body injury. While the Cowboys played Texas tough in their previous road game, this is a bad matchup for them against the Air Force spread triple option. Wyoming gave up more than 7.0 Yards-Per-Carry against New Mexico and Appalachian State generated 217 rushing yards against them. They also rank 91st in the nation in Opponent Quality Drives Allowed that measures drives of at least ten plays and 50 yards that take at least three minutes off the clock. This Air Force offense is dominant — they rank second in the nation in Points-Per-Drive and they lead the nation in Finishing Drives. Their rushing attack ranks seventh in Success Rate fueled by an experienced offensive line that ranks sixth in the FBS in Line Yards. The Falcons have won 9 of their last 13 games after a win against a Mountain West Conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a double-digit victory against a conference foe. They have rushed for at least 287 yards in their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in three straight games. The Air Force defense has also been outstanding as they have held their five opponents to just 12.2 PPG — and they rank sixth in the nation by allowing only 4.27 Yards-Per-Play. The Falcons’ defense ranks 12th in the nation in Opponent Quality Drive Allowed and 18th in Points Allowed-Per-Drive.

FINAL TAKE: Air Force will have revenge on their minds after getting upset in Laramie against Wyoming by a 17-14 score as a 16.5-point favorite on September 16th last season. Laying double-digits with a methodical service academy can be dangerous — but this Falcons team has won all five of their games by double-digits with four of those victories by 18 or more points. They have been held below 39 points only once this season while scoring 39, 45, and 49 points in their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Game of the Month is with the Air Force Falcons (182) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (181). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (146) plus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (145). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-4) has lost four games in a row after their 38-21 upset loss as a 2.5-point favorite back on September 30th. Louisville (1-4) remained unbeaten this season with their 33-20 upset win at home against Notre Dame as a 6-point underdog last Saturday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Louisville comes off their emotional high-profile victory against the Fighting Irish — but I expect a letdown for them tonight. The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after winning five or more games in a row. And while they outrushed the Irish by 141 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outrushing their previous opponent by +125 or more Yards-Per-Game. The main question I had for this team in my offseason deep dive regarded how close could the Cardinals come to replicating the recent success of the Purdue offense. Former quarterback Jeff Brohm returned to his alma mater after serving as the head coach of the Boilermakers for five seasons and leading them to the Big Ten Championship Game last season. He installed his version of an Air Raid attack — and he brought in his former QB Jack Plummer to operate the offense after passing for 6500 yards in his career which includes four years at Purdue. But the senior graduate transfer left the Purdue program a year ago for California because he lost the starting QB job to Aidan O’Connell — and the Cardinals lost three of their top four receivers from last season. Plummer had 19 Big Time throws for the Golden Bears last season — but he also had 18 turnover-worthy plays. Brohm has worked the transfer portal by bringing in over 25 new players — but most of these players come from non-Power Five conference programs. The defense replaces NFL players on all three levels. The Louisville faithful could not be more thrilled with the results with the perfect 6-0 start with a victory against Notre Dame — but dark clouds are looming. Plummer continues to be too loose with the football with six interceptions already. The Cardinals still enjoy a +14 net turnover margin this year — but that clip is simply unsustainable. This will be only their second true road game this season with two of their away games played on neutral fields. While they are overachieving ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+  projections by +15.1 points when playing at home this season, they are underachieving the SP+ projections by -8.0 points when they are on the road. Now here comes an angry Pittsburgh team with an extra week to rest and prepare — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset loss. The Panthers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 37 or more points in their last game. The main offseason question I had for Pitt was whether head coach Pat Narduzzi had raised the ceiling of expectations for this program — or is this a football team that will take a step or two back this season. The Panthers have won 20 games in the last two years after following up their Kenny Pickett ACC Championship team with a 9-4 record last season. But after losing seven players on defense to the NFL, they only return 12 starters this year. The last time Pitt had won more than eight games before this current run was back in 2009 when they went 10-3. Narduzzi was aggressive in the transfer portal again after bringing in Kedon Slovis from USC last season (to up-and-down results) — senior Phil Jurkovec comes in after 24 starts at Boston College and sophomore Christian Veilleux enters the program after being a blue-chip recruit at Penn State. Unfortunately, this team has underachieved SP+ projections in each of their games this season — so Narduzzi used the bye week to make some fundamental changes. One of the tweaks we know about is that he is benching Jurkovec at quarterback and tapping Veilleux as his new starter under center. After scoring 23.4 PPG, things cannot get much worse on that side of the ball. The element of surprise should help the Panthers tonight.

FINAL TAKE: It is surprising that a Narduzzi-coached defense is not forcing more than turnovers — they have only four takeaways this season and not more than one in a game yet. Forcing turnovers was likely another area of emphasis in the last two weeks — especially with Plummer vulnerable to throwing interceptions. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 51 of their last 81 games after not forcing more than one turnover in two games in a row — and they covered the point spread in 23 of their last 37 games after not forcing two or more turnovers in three straight games and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after not forcing two or more turnovers in four straight games. 8* CFB Louisville-Pittsburgh on The CW Special with Pittsburgh Panthers (146) plus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (186) plus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (185). THE SITUATION: Nevada (0-5) remained winless this season after their 27-9 loss at Fresno State as a 25.5-point underdog back on September 30th. UNLV (4-1) has won three games in a row after their 44-20 victory against Hawai’i as an 11-point favorite two Saturdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK PLUS THE POINTS: Nevada has endured one of the more difficult schedules this season with games at USC, Fresno State, and a feisty Texas State team this season along with a home game against Kansas. They were underdogs of 17 or more points in all four of those contests. The main question I had for this team in my deep dive in the offseason was whether second-year head coach Ken Wilson could raise the floor as to what to expect from his defense. The former Oregon defensive coordinator inherited a dumpster fire last year after the Wolf Pack’s previous head coach Mike Norvell took many of the players with him when he bolted for the Colorado State job. Only 22% of the production from 2021 returned to Reno last season. But the Wolf Pack did hold eight of their opponents to just 23.3 PPG and 4.9 Yards-Per-Play with the potent offenses from Boise State, Fresno State, Air Force, and Incarnate Word being the outliers. Eight starters are back on that side of the ball. Last year’s team continued to improve as the season moved on — and I expect the same this year. Coming off a bye week and now hosting an in-state rival, I expect a spirited effort. Nevada has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 33 home games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. They have played four straight Unders after USC put up 66 points against them in their opening game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after playing an Under in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after playing four or more Unders in a row. And while the Wolf Pack have allowed exactly 475.0 Yards-Per-Game in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after allowing 475 YPG in their previous three games. UNLV has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after a double-digit win against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning three of their last four games. The main offseason question I had for UNLV was if first-year head coach Barry Odom could instill some life in what is now the afterthought football team in Las Vegas, The Rebels have not played in a bowl game since 2013 — and they have posted a 29-74 record in the last ten seasons. Odom is a good football who had some competitive teams in his four-year run as the head coach at Missouri from 2016 to 2019 before serving as the defensive coordinator at Arkansas in the last three seasons. His vast experience in the SEC offers some much-needed gravitas to this program. So far so good for this team by overachieving expectations with a 4-1 record with their lone loss being at Michigan. But Odom has taken advantage of a light schedule that has included an FCS program (Bryant), UTEP, and an underachieving Vanderbilt team before the conference win against the Rainbow Warriors. Kudos to the Rebels for winning the turnover battle in their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after enjoying a +1 or better turnover battle in two straight games. And while they have held their last three opponents to 91 or fewer rushing yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games on the road after holding at least two straight opponents to less than 100 rushing yards.

FINAL TAKE: I like this spot for the Wolf Pack who I suspect are undervalued coming into this game — and the Rebels are probably a bit overvalued with their nice start. The preseason expectations for these teams were about the same — and UNLV is using a freshman Jayden Maiava under center which can lead to some issues when playing on the road in hostile environments. Nevada will be motivated to avenge a 27-22 loss at UNLV last November — and the Rebels have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Nevada Wolf Pack (186) plus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (185). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (111) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (112). THE SITUATION: Denver (1-4) lost for the fourth time in their five games this season with a 31-21 upset loss to the New York Jets as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (4-1) has won four games in a row after their 27-20 win at Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: We bet numbers rather than teams —  and double-digits are simply too many points to give up on a short week to a division rival. Certainly, Payton and his coaching staff spent a significant amount of time in the offseason preparing for this game that, in theory, looked critical to their season. I think the Chiefs win comfortably — but they would be quite content with a ten-point victory. Kansas City has not scored more than 27 points in four of their five games this season — and they have not scored more than 23 points in three of their five games. After losing JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman in the offseason, their cadre of young receivers like Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Rashee Rice have not stepped up to become a number one wide receiver target for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. As their opening game against Detroit demonstrated, these wide receivers simply drop too many passes. After the eight drops in that opening contest that probably cost them the game, Mahomes is seeing 6.7% of his passes dropped this season, the third-highest mark in the NFL. While the memory of Miami putting up 70 points and 726 yards against this Broncos team three weeks ago, the Chiefs tend to not put up those video game-type numbers when they are playing at home at Arrowhead Stadium (despite their scoring of 41 points at home earlier this season against Chicago). In their ten home games last season, they only scored more than 27 points one time — but they scored 30 or more points eight times when on the road including the Super Bowl. Despite averaging 29.2 PPG last regular season, the scoring average dropped to 25.1 PPG when playing at home. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home during Weeks Five through Nine. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against fellow AFC opponents. And in their last 8 games when favored by double digits, they have failed to cover the point spread 5 times. Denver has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. And while this team has allowed 28 or more points in four straight games, Payton’s teams going back to his time with New Orleans have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games after allowing 25 or more points in two straight contests.

FINAL TAKE: Payton’s teams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points — and his teams have covered the point spread in 21 of their 29 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (111) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (475) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (476). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 34-20 loss at home to Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog back on September 28th for Thursday Night Football. Las Vegas (1-3) has lost three games in a row after their 24-17 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Green Bay got embarrassed on national television — but with the extra few days to rest and prepare, expect a much better effort from them tonight. The Packers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. And while they got outgained by -173 net yards with the Lions generating 401 yards against them, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest. My main question for this team in my deep dive on them in the offseason dealt with the possibility that the Packers would respond similarly as the Seattle Seahawks did last year once their long-time franchise quarterback was granted his trade request. The Seahawk players seemed happy to see Russell Wilson leave — and perhaps the Packer players were pleased to tell Aaron Rodgers to not let the door hit him as he left for New York. While head coach Matt LaFleur is on the hot seat in his fifth year with the team, he gets to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers. And with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility. Love has struggled with his accuracy as he is completing only 56.1% of his passes — but his receivers have had too many drops. Second-year wide receiver Christian Watson was injured to begin the season — but he returned for the Lions game to score a touchdown and is ready to go tonight. Love does have eight touchdown passes to just three interceptions — and he is averaging 18.5 rushing yards per game with two touchdowns offering enough of a threat with his legs to keep defenses honest. The Packers will not have running back Aaron Jones tonight as he continues to recover from a hamstring injury — but getting to play this Raiders team may be just what the doctor ordered. Las Vegas is a mess on and off the field. On the field, the Raiders rank 31st in Offensive DVOA according to the metrics deployed by Football Outsiders while ranking 28th in Defensive DVOA. Off the field, the release of linebacker Chandler Jones for his personal issues is just the latest drama impacting this team. Second-year Josh McDaniels does not appear to have complete support in the locker room with veterans like wide receiver Davante Adams expressing his displeasure with the direction of the team. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has been cleared from the concussion protocol and will take the field tonight. But Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an AFC West rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games after a loss on the road to a divisional foe. The Chargers outrushed them by -79 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after getting outrushed by -75 or more yards. Running back Josh Jacobs is averaging only 2.7 Yards-Per-Carry this season after generating 4.9 YPC during his 1653 rushing yards campaign last year. His decrease in production may not be all his fault as he is rushing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. The Raiders have one of the worst rosters in the league after years of disastrous drafts in the Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock era. Coming from the NFL Network to be a “yes” man for Gruden, Mayock drafted as if his only scouting was watching the 3:30 PM ET and prime-time college football games on national television on Saturdays after sleeping through the early game here in Vegas. Las Vegas is starting slow which is an indication of poorly designed early play scripts on offense. After trailing 13-7 against Pittsburgh two weeks ago on Sunday Night Football, they went into the locker room last week trailing the Chargers by a 24-7 score. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 60 games after trailing by 14 or more points at halftime of their last game including covering the spread in 4 of their last 5 games under those circumstances. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 43 of their last 65 games after failing to score more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. Las Vegas has not covered the point spread in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 36 of their last 54 home games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road as a dog. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in expected close games with them listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when favored. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (475) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (474) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (473). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (4-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 35-16 win against Arizona as a 14.5-point favorite last Sunday. Dallas (3-1) rebounded from their loss to Arizona two weeks ago with a 38-3 victory at home against New England as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: While the Cowboys come off a blowout win against the Patriots (who looked terrible earlier today against New Orleans), they tend to fall flat after big wins like that. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after a win at home by 21 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after a win by 28 or more points. And while their defense looked great at what is a completely inept New England offense (even under Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator), they have then failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 33 games after not allowing more than nine points in their last contest. The Cowboys have veered the point spread in three of their four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 40 games on the road after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Now after playing a light schedule consisting of the New York Giants and Jets, Arizona (in their loss), and New England who now have a combined 4-14 record after the 1 PM ET window, they face a major upgrade in competition tonight. San Francisco has won 14 straight regular season games — and remember that their playoff loss last season was after injuries at quarterback left them without a person capable of executing a forward pass. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after a point spread victory. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after winning four or more games in a row. They have covered the point spread in three of their four games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight home games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. San Francisco has scored exactly 30 points in all four of their games — and they have covered the points spread in 6 straight home games after scoring 30 or more points in two straight games. They stay at home for a third straight week where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 home games as a favorite. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (474) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (464) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (463). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (2-2) was on a two-game losing streak before their 30-7 upset loss at Houston as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Baltimore (3-1) comes off a 28-3 win at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh got embarrassed last week — and they are banged up with a bunch of injuries including quarterback Kenny Pickett who is likely to play with a knee brace. This is an endorsement of the Steelers’ head coach Mike Tomlin who reliably has his team ready to play in situations like this. In Pittsburgh’s circles, they were anxious about getting back late from a delayed flight after their Sunday night game in Las Vegas two weeks ago — and it cost them a practice day in pads in preparation for the game against the Texans. On a two-game winning streak off a win on Sunday Night Football, that may have contributed to their soft effort against the Texans. Tomlin made it clear they were back in pads for practice this week — especially in preparation for their game with the Ravens in what is the most physical rivalry in the league. Nothing like a game with Baltimore to clarify expectations. As it is, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games at home after an upset loss by double-digits. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after a loss by 14 points or more points on the road. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a loss by 21 or more points including covering the point spread in those last five circumstances — and they have covered the points spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after a loss on the road by 21 or more points. Admittedly, the offense looks like a mess right now with offensive coordinator Matt Canada under intense scrutiny — but the Steelers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 14 points. And the defense has something to prove — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing 30 or points while covering the point spread in 6 straight games at home after giving up 30 or more points. Remember that this team has a 10-4 record in their last 14 games with a healthy T.J. Watt who is locked and loaded for this game. Baltimore is just as injured as the Steelers are right now — but they are surviving their M*A*S*H unit adventures because they have enjoyed good fortune with opposing quarterbacks. After getting to play C.J. Stroud in his first professional start for Houston last month, they then got an injured Joe Burrow, backup Gardner Minshew (in a loss), and another rookie debut with the Browns having to turn to Dorian Thompson-Robinson last week. The Ravens have failed to cover the points spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against an AFC North rival. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 10 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning three of their last four games. And in their last 12 games against not allowing more than 14 points, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of those contests. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 34 road games when laying 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh plays Lamar Jackson tough — besides beating the Ravens in five of their last six games against them, they have held Jackson to just a 66 Passer Rating in his games against them. Eight of the last ten meetings between these teams have been decided by one scoring possession — and the Steelers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog. 25* AFC North Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (464) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (463). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (451) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (452). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 23-7 victory against Atlanta in London last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Buffalo (3-1) has won three games in a row after their 48-20 loss to Miami as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral field at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bills raced out to a 31-14 lead to dominate their AFC East rivals whom they played three times last season including in the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs. Don’t be surprised if this suffers an emotional letdown this week — especially with the challenges of traveling to London this week. As it is, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win at home against a divisional rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory against an AFC East opponent. After a shaky opening game in prime-time against the New York Jets where Josh Allen’s turnover issues popped up in a loss despite the early injury to Aaron Rodgers, the Bills have won and covered the point spread in three straight games. But Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning three or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 39 games on the road after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The defense does expect to get Von Miller back for the first time this season after his season-ending injury last year — but they will be without defensive end Gregory Rousseau who was having a breakout season rushing the passer this year. The Bills’ defense is banged up for this game with several other players listed as questionable — and they lost star cornerback Tre’Davious White last week to a season-ending Achilles injury. Jacksonville stayed in London all week after beating the Falcons at Wembley Stadium last week. Staying across the pond for the additional time should give them a significant situational edge against the Bills still getting accustomed to the time change — and I tend to like teams that stay on the road together for two weeks since it gives their mission more of a business trip vibe. This contest is a statement game for Jacksonville who want to be considered as a contender to win the AFC Championship but have underperformed so far this season. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 6 straight games away from home. They have also covered the point spread in 35 of their last 54 games after not allowing more than nine points in their last game. They did enjoy a +3 net turnover margin last week — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enjoying a +2 or better turnover margin in their last game. They are fourth in the NFL with nine takeaways this season.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills are scoring 34.8 Points-Per-Game while outscoring their opponents by +21.0 PPG — but head coach Doug Pederson’s teams going back to Philadelphia have covered the point spread in 8 of their 12 games against teams scoring 29.0 or more PPG and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more net PPG. 10* NFL Jacksonville-Buffalo London Calling Special with the Jacksonville Jaguars (451) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (382) plus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (381). THE SITUATION: California (3-2) has won two of their last three games after their 24-21 win at Arizona State as a 13-point favorite on Saturday. Oregon State (4-1) comes off a 21-7 win against Utah as a 4-point favorite last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: California survived their game with the Sun Devils despite getting outgained by -104 net yards in that game. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after getting outgained by -125 or more yards in their last contest. The Golden Bears have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. Cal has not covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after facing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. The biggest question I had for this team in my deep dive in the offseason was whether head coach Justin Wilcox’s aggressiveness in the transfer portal would lead to the results on the field that would get him off the hot seat in his seventh year with the program. Bringing in transfer players at a place like Cal with its high academic standards is tough — but the Admissions Department has been more engaged in working with the Athletic Department in accommodating the admission and enrollment of potential transfers. After three straight losing seasons, Wilcox needed to change something else besides changing the offensive coordinator, although he did do that for the third straight year as well. Wilcox tapped 19 transfers overall with seven of these players being former blue-chippers like sophomore quarterback Sam Jackson V who comes over from TCU where he was a four-star recruit. With these players joining 17 starters from last year, the Golden Bears have the opportunity to turn around a program that finished 4-8 last season. The results on the field so far have been encouraging with their two losses being when they were underdogs against Auburn and then at Washington. My biggest question for Oregon State in the preseason was whether they could take the next step and challenge for a Pac-12 Championship. They won their final four games of the season including a 30-3 dominant win over Florida in the Las Vegas Bowl to complete a 10-3 campaign. But all three of their losses were in conference play where they finished a solid 6-3 — but they lost to both USC and Washington by a field goal and got thumped by Utah by a 42-16 score in Salt Lake City. Head coach Jonathan Smith has 13 starters back in his sixth year with the program  — and he may have scored an upgrade at quarterback with D.J. Uigalelei transferring in from Clemson. The former five-star recruit had a 22-9 career record as a starter for the Tigers. But despite a good opening game at San Jose State, Uigalelei has demonstrated the frustrating form that led to his being benched by Dabo Swinney in the ACC Championship Game and then the Tigers’ bowl game. He has completed only 50.6% of his passes in his last three games while throwing four interceptions. The Beavers are very tough to beat in Corvallis — but they hit the road again after getting upset by Washington State in their last game away from home three weeks ago. Oregon State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as a favorite of no more than seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Cal has been a dangerous underdog under Wilcox. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games as an underdog. 8* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the California Golden Bears (382) plus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (381). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (370) plus the points versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (369). THE SITUATION:  Wyoming (4-1) has won two games in a row after their 35-26 win against New Mexico as a 14.5-point favorite last Saturday. Fresno State (5-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 27-9 win against Nevada as a 25.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Wyoming’s lone this season was at Texas where they were tied with the Longhorns in the fourth quarter before they pulled away late for a 21-point victory. Since that loss, the Cowboys returned home where they beat Appalachian State and then the Lobos last week. Wyoming has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after winning two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning two straight games at home. The question I had in my preseason deep dive for this team was whether this was the year that the Cowboys took the next step to challenge for the Mountain West Conference title. Under head coach Craig Bohl, this team has finished .500 or better in six of the last seven years with the 2020 COVID season being the lone exception when they were 2-4. Their 5-3 record in conference play last season was their best mark against MWC foes since 2016. Bohl has 15 starters back from last year’s group including ten starters on defense along with 13 of the 16 players who played at least 250 snaps — and ten of those players were freshmen or sophomores. Five starters are back on offense including fifth-year senior quarterback Andrew Peasley. The Cowboys conclude their three-game home stand tonight at War Memorial Stadium where they are very tough to beat. Wyoming has a 41-21 straight-up record at home in the last ten seasons after their 4-0 start this year which includes that win against Appalachian State as well as an upset win against Texas Tech in overtime. They are scoring 30.8 Points-Per-Game at home while holding their opponents to just 23.8 PPG. They have a nice weapon developing at running back in junior Harrison Waylee. In his three games since taking the field this season, the Northern Illinois transfer has rushed for 457 yards with an 8.6 Yards-Per-Carry average. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Bohl’s team has also forced at least one turnover in each of their games — and they have won the turnover battle in their last two contests. Wyoming has then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after enjoying a +1 or better turnover margin in two straight games. After two straight games at home, Fresno State goes back on the road for the third time this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after winning their last two games at home. The Bulldogs generated 6.95 Yards-Per-Play last week against the Wolf Pack — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after averaging 6.25 or more YPP in their last game. They averaged 7.66 YPP in their previous game against Kent State as well — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after generating 6.25 or more YPP in their last two games. Fresno State is considered the best Group of Five team by many observers after outgaining their last three opponents by +197 net Yards-Per-Game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after outgaining their last three opponents by +125 or more YPG. The main question I had for the Bulldogs in the offseason was how close could they come to replacing the production that Jake Haener provided them at quarterback the last three seasons. Junior Logan Fife had five starts last year when Haener got injured early in the season. Head coach Jeff Tedford also brought sophomore Mike Keene from Central Florida via the transfer portal. Only four starters on the offensive line return for the entire offensive unit that ranked 51st and 52nd in the nation by scoring 30.6 PPG and averaging 402.8 YPG. Five of the top six targets in the passing game must be replaced along with running back Jordan Mims who rushed for 1370 yards with 18 rushing touchdowns last year. So far so good. Keene has won the quarterback job and ranks 11th in the nation with 1474 passing yards. The Bulldogs have victories against two Power Five conference programs in Purdue and Arizona State — but both of those teams are rebuilding under first-year head coaches. This game is just the third time this season that Fresno State is not favored by 25 or more points.

FINAL TAKE: This showdown has definitely been on the mind of Bohl after his team has been shut out in two straight years against Fresno State. The Bulldogs are holding their opponents to just 282.0 total YPG this year — but the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against opponents not allowing more than 280 YPG. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Underdog of the Month with the Wyoming Cowboys (370) plus the points versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (369). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (380) minus the points versus the Washington State Cougars (379). THE SITUATION: UCLA (3-1) was on a three-game winning streak to begin the season before a 14-7 loss at Utah as a 3-point underdog two weeks ago on September 23rd. Washington State (4-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 38-35 upset win against Oregon State as a 3-point underdog on September 23rd.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS MINUS THE POINTS: UCLA outgained the Utes in that loss by a 243-219 yardage margin — but they could not overcome a 21-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Freshman Dante Moore played his worst game in his young career by completing only 15 of 38 passes for 234 yards with that pick-six. Expect the former five-star recruit to play better this week with an extra week off to digest his experience against the stout Utah defense. The Bruins have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road to a Pac-12 rival under head coach Chip Kelly. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game in the Kelly era. It appears that Kelly may have finally found his man to run the defense with first-year defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn after years of difficulties with Jerry Azzinaro and then Bill McGovern last year as the DC. Lynn was the Baltimore Ravens safeties coach last season — and his defense this season leads the nation by allowing only 3.75 Yards-Per-Play while ranking second in the nation in Points Allowed Per Drive. They have held their last three opponents to 236.7 Yards-Per-Game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 250 YPG in their last three contests. UCLA has also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games in October. Washington State is riding high after their upset win against the Beavers with quarterback Cameron Ward being in the Heisman Trophy discussion. The Cougars offense has been clicking by generating at least 8.1 YPP in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after averaging 7.25 or more YPP in two straight games. They have also raced out to at least two touchdown leads at halftime in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after holding a double-digit lead in three straight games. This team may suffer an emotional letdown now — especially with the extra week off. Washington State has failed to cover the point spread in all 3 of their games with an extra week off under head coach Jake Dickert.

FINAL TAKE: The Cougars score 45.8 PPG this season — but Kelly’s teams have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games in his career against teams who average 37 or more PPG. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the  UCLA Bruins (380) minus the points versus the Washington State Cougars (379). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (357) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (358). THE SITUATION: LSU (3-2) had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 55-49 upset loss at Mississippi as a 2.5-point road favorite last Saturday. Missouri (5-0) remained unbeaten with their 38-21 win at Vanderbilt as a 14-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE LSU MINUS THE POINTS: It has been a disappointing season for the LSU Tigers who began the year with National Championship aspirations. But expect them to take out their frustrations on Missouri. LSU has covered the point spread in 34 of their last 51 games on the road after a straight-up loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. LSU has been a sieve on defense after allowing 31 or more points in each of their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after allowing 31 or more points in two straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after allowing 42 or more points in their last contest. They are getting great play from quarterback Jayden Daniels who ranks ninth in the nation in Total QBR — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 42 or more points in their last game. Missouri dominated the Commodores last week by outgaining them by +232 net yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by +225 or more YPG. Mizzou has played three straight Overs — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after playing three or more Overs in a row. This team has been one of the surprises of the season with sophomore wide receiver Luther Burden III as their breakout star. But this is just the second time they have been an underdog this season — and while they upset Kansas State at home earlier this year, that Wildcats team was woeful last night in Stillwater against Oklahoma State. LSU will be the best team they have played this season — by far.

FINAL TAKE: Missouri has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games when getting 3.5 to 7 points — and LSU has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 road games when laying 3.5 to 7 points. 10* CFB LSU-Missouri ESPN Special with the LSU Tigers (357) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (358). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Commanders (306) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (305). THE SITUATION: Washington (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 34-31 loss in overtime at Philadelphia on Sunday. Chicago (0-4) remains winless after their 31-28 loss at home to Denver as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMANDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Al Michaels is not going to be happy calling this game between two clubs that have only two combined victories between them going into Week Five — it’s a tough life for the 78-year-old making about a million dollars per broadcast on Amazon Prime through 2024. And it may look tough to lay the six or so points with a Washington team that got crushed by 34 points against Buffalo two weeks ago (even worse: teams coming off an overtime game on Sunday now playing on a short week with a Thursday game have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of these last 24 circumstances according to my database). But Commanders’ head coach Ron Rivera usually has his team take full advantage of situations like this. In his tenure at Washington, his teams have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games against teams not winning more than 25% of their games. And while the Bears are getting outscored by -15.5 Points-Per-Game, the Commanders have covered the point spread in 6 of their 8 games under Rivera against teams getting outscored by -6.0 or more PPG. Rivera’s Washington teams also thrive against teams playing bad defense. Chicago is allowing 34.3 PPG and 383.3 total Yards-Per-Game — and the Commanders have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams allowing 375 or more YPG and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams allowing 24 or more PPG. The biggest question I had for this team in the offseason was how good could quarterback Sam Howell be in his second season. While he was drafted only in the fifth round in the 2022 NFL draft, he was considered as potentially a first-round talent after his sophomore season at North Carolina in 2020. He regressed in his third season with the Tar Heels — but perhaps much of that blame should go to the graduation of his top two targets in the passing game along with two running back drafted into the NFL. Howell possesses natural leadership skills — and no one will question his arm strength. If he can improve pocket presence and decision-making, he seems capable of being a productive starter in the league. While his game against the Bills was ugly, he has shown flashes of greatness. Against the stout Eagles defense last week, he completed 29 of 41 passes for 290 yards with a touchdown and no turnovers. The Commanders have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a loss by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a point spread win and in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Furthermore, Rivera’s teams going back to his tenure at Carolina have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after a loss on the road. Chicago is a dysfunctional mess under second-year head coach Matt Eberflus. The Bears have lost 14 games in a row after ending the previous season on a ten-game losing streak. Third-year quarterback Justin Fields seems to be drowning under the pressure and scrutiny of being a former first-round pick — and the coaching staff seems to be making his job even more difficult like with decisions to go for it on fourth down rather than kick a go-ahead field goal late in their game with the Broncos last week. Defensive coordinator Alan Williams was dismissed from the team a few weeks ago after some misconduct was discovered by the organization. Eberflus is calling the plays on defense as if he did not need more things on his plate. Wide receiver Chase Claypool is not being dressed for games after he criticized the coaching staff — he is on the trade block. Injuries to cornerback Jaylon Johnson and free safety Eddie Jackson will require Eberflus to start two rookies in their defensive backfield tonight. After ranking last in the NFL with only 32 sacks last year, Chicago remains last in that category this season after registering only two sacks — and they rank second to last in quarterback hits. So while it is far from ideal for the Commanders to be playing on a short week after playing an additional eight minutes of overtime on Sunday, this Bears group is in no position to take advantage of that given all the chaos they are experiencing. The shame of it is that they played their best game of the season for almost three quarters — they took a 28-7 lead over Denver with just over four minutes left in the third quarter. I suspect that loss was deflating and resulted in a hangover that may carry over into this road game for them on a short week. As it is, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after losing two or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They have allowed 27 or more points in all four of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after allowing 25 or more points in two straight contests.

FINAL TAKE:  The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games as an underdog. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Washington Commanders (306) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (302) minus the points versus the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (301). THE SITUATION: Middle Tennessee (1-4) has lost two games in a row after their 31-10 loss at Western Kentucky as a 6.5-point underdog last Thursday. Jacksonville State (4-1) has won two games in a row after their 35-28 upset win in overtime at Sam Houston State as a 7-point underdog on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Middle Tennessee dug themselves a hole last week by going into halftime trailing by a 23-3 score — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after trailing by 17 or more points at halftime of their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 17 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 41 games after a loss on the road by 21 or more points. And while this team has not covered the point spread in three straight games while only covering once all season, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. My biggest question for this team in my offseason deep dive was whether or not the Blue Raiders would be a better team this season but fail to replicate or improve on their 8-5 record. Head coach Rick Stockstill’s squad pulled off five upsets and benefited from a +12 net turnover margin which made up for a -44 net Yards-Per-Game mark in Conference USA play. The defense has eight starters back along with 12 of the 15 players who logged in at least 300 snaps. The offense has five starters back along with sophomore Nick Vattiato who was the Conference USA Freshman of the Year in 2021 while earning MVP in the Bahamas Bowl before only playing in two games last season with senior Chase Cunningham returning from injury to reclaim the starting job. They did win five of their last six games including a 25-23 win against San Diego State in Hawai’i Bowl. Turnovers are playing a role with Middle Tennessee sporting a -3 net turnover margin — and they have committed five turnovers in their last two games. They had a -2 net turnover margin last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 43 of their last 65 games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin including four straight point spread covers after a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Blue Raiders have also had a tough opening schedule that started with road trips to Alabama and Missouri. Jacksonville State has benefited from a soft early schedule with four Group of Five opponents and an FCS school. They trailed by a 21-7 score at Sam Houston State before forcing overtime where they pulled that game out. They were very fortunate to win that game after getting outgained by -42 net yards. They gave up 299 yards in the air to the Bearkats — so Middle Tennessee quarterback Nick Vattiato should have a good game. The sophomore completed 27 of 45 passes for 252 yards in a losing effort to the Hilltoppers last week. The biggest question I had for Jacksonville State in the offseason regarded whether this FBS debutant would find immediate success like James Madison last year. In going 9-2 last season, only one of their opponents was an FBS opponent. The defense lost three of their top six tacklers and now faces a full FBS schedule while playing in Conference USA. Their defense has put up gaudy numbers against UTEP, Eastern Michigan, and Eastern Tennessee State — but that may speak more to the quality of those opponents. Coastal Carolina and Sam Houston State generated 399 and 435 yards against them.

FINAL TAKE: Middle Tennessee has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games at home. 8* CFB Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (302) minus the points versus the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (279) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the New York Giants (280). THE SITUATION: Seattle (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 37-27 win against Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. New York (1-2) comes off a 30-12 loss at San Francisco as a 10.5-point underdog back on September 21st.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): After playing flat in their opening game against the Los Angeles Rams, Seattle has scored 37 points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after scoring 35 or more points in their last game. Pundits expecting quarterback Geno Smith to revert to his previous form with the New York Jets are eating crow with home completing 69% of his passes this season. He led the NFL with a 69.8% completion percentage last year while winning the Comeback Player Of the Year Award. Arm talent was never the issue for the former West Virginia quarterback — he was the 39th pick in the 2013 NFL draft. He is more mature now — and he has clearly learned from working with Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, and Eli Manning. The Seahawks defense has underachieved this season after allowing at least 27 points in all three of their games — but they get back Jamal Adams tonight after missing almost all of last season with the knee injury he suffered in Week One. He will immediately improve their run defense — and he will probably be assigned to rush the quarterback in big nickel schemes with two other safeties on the field. Seattle has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 25 or more points in two straight games. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in October. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. They have not covered the point spread in their three games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. They have only scored six points in the first half all season — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after failing to score more than 7 points in the first half in two straight games. I think everyone understands that the Giants were incredibly fortunate to reach the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs last year after getting outscored and outgained in yardage during the regular season. Posting an 8-4-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession got them into the playoffs — and they had an opportune first-round draw against a Minnesota team that had an even more improbable 11-0 record in games decided by one scoring possession. But last year’s good fortunes do not disqualify this team from improving the 8-9 team that the underlying analytics grading this team out as. Daboll immediately fixed Jones’ turnover problems as the fifth-year pro threw only five interceptions — and his 1.1% interception rate was the best in the NFL for regular starting QBs. Could the team add team speed, find more playmakers on offense to stretch the field, and improve their run defense? If so, then they could certainly develop into a more deserving playoff team this season. After scoring only 14.3 PPG this season, injuries are making any improvement on that side of the field nearly impossible. Running back Saquon Barkley remains out with his high ankle sprain. Left tackle Andrew Thomas is out with a hamstring injury. It is telling that after only throwing five interceptions last season Jones has already thrown four picks this year. The Giants have a -5 net turnover margin after losing the turnover battle in each of their games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after losing the turnover battle in two or more games in a row. And then there is the state of the New York defense that has allowed 32 Points-Per-Game in their last five games going back to last season — and they have not forced a turnover in those last five contests. It does not inspire confidence they are starting two rookies at cornerback with Deonte Banks and Tre Hawkins III.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants have lost seven straight games when playing on Monday Night Football — and Jones has a personal 1-11 straight-up record when playing in prime time. 20* NFL Seattle-NY Giants ABC-TV/ESPN Special with the Seattle Seahawks (279) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the New York Giants (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (278) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (277). THE SITUATION: New York (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 15-10 loss to New England as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Kansas City (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 41-10 win against Chicago as a 13-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: This situation offers the opportunity to remind us that we are betting numbers rather than teams. For Zach Wilson and this Jets’ offense, things cannot get much worse than they have been the last two weeks. But the opportunity to take them getting more than a touchdown with them playing at home is too good to pass up. New York has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 home games when getting 7.5 to 10 points as the underdog. With the nationally-televised audience tonight — and apparently Taylor Swift in the house — look for the Jets to play inspired football like they did when they upset Buffalo in a prime-time game at home at MetLife Stadium in Week One. New York has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by seven points or less to an AFC East rival. They have been outgained by 171 and 215 yards in two straight contests — but they have then covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards in two straight games. The Jets offense has only scored 20 combined points in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not scoring more than 20 points in two straight games. The New York defense has been strained — but they remain a good unit that is only allowing 20.3 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in October. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a double-digit victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring 35 or more points in their last game. And while they generated 6.3 and 6.1 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in two straight games after their upset loss to Detroit in Week One — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. My biggest question for this team in my deep dive on them in the offseason was whether the defending Super Bowl champions could maintain the razor-sharp intensity necessary to run through the gauntlet that will likely be AFC playoffs in January. With JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman gone, Patrick Mahomes has now lost another two starting wide receivers since the departure of Tyreek Hill last year. The Chiefs replaced eight veterans including five starters from last year’s championship roster including defensive end Frank Clark. Before crushing the train-wreck Bears last week, Kansas City had only scored 20 and 17 points in their first two games with Mahomes not throwing for 300 net yards in either contest. The supporting cast of wide receivers after tight end Travis Kelce has looked shaky — and remember their eight drops against the Lions were in another nationally-televised prime time game.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games when laying 7.5-14 points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with New York Jets (278) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Vanderbilt Commodores (204) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (203). THE SITUATION: Vanderbilt (2-3) has lost three games in a row after their 45-28 loss at home to Kentucky as a 13-point underdog last Saturday. Missouri (4-0) is unbeaten this season after their 34-27 victory as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMODORES PLUS THE POINTS: Vanderbilt was only outgained by 37 net yards to the Wildcats — but they surrendered two defensive touchdowns from interceptions that made the difference in the game. This Commodores team is actually outscoring and outgaining their opponents in yardage — but they have lost the turnover battle in each of the games in their three-game losing streak. Vanderbilt has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after suffering a -1 or worse turnover margin in three or more games in a row. Additionally, the Commodores have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss to an SEC rival. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing three or more games in a row. And while they have surrendered at least 36 points in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing 31 or more points in three straight games. The biggest question I had with this team in my preseason deep dive was whether teaching and coaching player development could overcome the hits they keep taking in the transfer portal. Head coach Clark Lea lost 12 players in the transfer window to fellow Power-5 programs in the last two seasons. But for the first time in five years, this team has continuity with both their offensive and defensive coordinator from the previous year. Missouri is unbeaten — but three of their four victories have been by seven points or less. They had the fewest Big Plays in the nation after their first two games against South Dakota and Middle Tennessee — and they beat the Blue Raiders by only four points despite being a three-touchdown favorite. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. And while they have played two straight Overs, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing two or more Overs in a row. My biggest question with this team in the offseason was whether they would continue to underwhelm on offense under head coach Eli Drinkwitz. The former Appalachian State head coach was hired to install his innovative pro-style offense that featured multiple personnel groupings in a no-huddle attack. But the Tigers have not ranked higher than 59th in the FBS in scoring and 61st in total yardage in his first three seasons. Seven starters are back on offense from a unit that scored only 24.8 PPG and generated 369.8 YPG last year, ranking 85th and 81st in the nation. Drinkwitz relinquished the play-calling to his new offensive coordinator Kirby Moore who comes over after two seasons as the OC at Fresno State. After two subpar games, junior quarterback Brady Cook has had two good games in a row — but now this will be Missouri’s first true road game in a hostile environment this season. The Tigers also have a showdown against LSU on deck next week — so the look-ahead issue could be a factor. They have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 road games with the Total set in the 52.5-56 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Commodores will be looking to avenge a narrow 17-14 loss at Missouri last October — and Lea led his team to scrappy upset victories against Florida and Kentucky last year. Missouri had four losses against SEC competition by 18 combined points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when laying 10.5-21 points. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month is with Vanderbilt Commodores (204) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (203). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Illinois Fighting Illini (181) plus the point(s) versus the Purdue Boilermakers (182). THE SITUATION: Illinois (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 23-17 win against Florida Atlantic as a 16.5-point favorite last Saturday. Purdue (1-3) has lost two games in a row after a 38-17 loss to Wisconsin as a 6-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Illini’s win against FAU finished Under the Total that was in the 45.5-point range. The Fighting Illini have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Illinois is playing low-scoring games with their last three games going Under the Total which has to please head coach Bret Bielema who would prefer to grind out lower-scoring games — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games on the road after playing two Unders in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 road games after playing three straight Unders. My biggest question for this team in my preseason deep dive was considering how close could the Fighting Illini get to replicating the performance of their defense that led the nation by holding their opponents to 12.8 PPG and ranked third in the FBS by allowing only 273.5 YPG? Bielema has already made this program the new Wisconsin in his third year with the program (especially with the sacrilege of the Badgers moving to an Air Raid offense this season). He lost four defensive backs who got drafted into the NFL — along with running back Chase Brown who led Power Five teams in rushing. Some red flags exist. After holding their first nine opponents to just 232 YPG, their last four opponents generated 367 YPG against them. It was going to be difficult to repeat their +15 net turnover margin which was the third-best mark in the FBS. But bringing Bielema’s smash-mouth football to Champagne improved the scoring by +4.1 PPG — and they outgained their conference opponents by +75 net YPG, the fourth-best mark in the Big Ten. All four of their conference losses were by one scoring possession — and ten All-Big performers return to the roster. So far this season, the turnover luck from last year has completely flipped as they have a -5 net turnover with five of their ten turnovers taking place against Penn State. But their two losses to Kansas and the Nittany Lions were against teams currently posting a combined 8-0 record. The Illini come off their best defensive game of the season by holding the Owls to just 353 total yards. Purdue has not covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. My main question for the Boilermakers in the offseason was how first-year head coach Ryan Walters would mesh with his offensive coordinator Graham Harrell who will be installing an Air Raid offense he previously oversaw at West Virginia and USC. Walters previously served as the defensive coordinator at Missouri and then Illinois last year which were mostly defensive-oriented smash-mouth teams. Walters’ last season with Missouri was in the first season under Eliah Drinkwitz in 2020 when he installed a no-huddle attack — and that Mizzo team gave up 49.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. Walters was not retained the next season which allowed Bielema to snatch him up when he took the Illinois head coaching job in 2021. So far, this marriage is not working. In their three games at home, the Boilermakers are allowing 444.3 total YPG which has resulted in them spotting their guests 37.3 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home as an underdog. 8* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Illinois Fighting Illini (181) plus the point(s) versus the Purdue Boilermakers (182). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (119) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the BYU Cougars (120). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 20-6 loss to Oklahoma as a 13.5-point underdog last Saturday. BYU (3-1) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 38-27 loss at Kansas as a 9-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Cincinnati failed to deliver in the Red Zone last week or they could have upset the Sooners — they scored only six points in their six trips inside Oklahoma’s 20-yard line and they scored only a field goal in their final four trips inside the Red Zone. And in their loss to Miami (OH) the previous week, they outgained the Redhawks by a 538-358 margin in yards and on the first down battle by a 30-16 margin but still managed to lose the game by a 31-24 score. My biggest question regarding this team in the preseason was whether former head coach Luke Fickell left this program at just the right time. After six seasons coaching the Bearcats, Fickell took the head coaching job at Wisconsin. The Cincinnati brass turned to Scott Satterfield who had four up-and-down seasons at Louisville where he often seemed to have one foot out the door with his battles with their administration. Only nine starters are back from last year’s group that finished 9-4 after a 24-7 loss against the Cardinals in the Fenway Bowl in Satterfield’s last game coaching for Louisville. Now the Bearcats make their debut in a Power Five conference with their move from the American Athletic Conference to the Big 12. But Satterfield’s teams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing two games in a row. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after failing to score more than six points in their last game — and Satterfield’s teams have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest. Satterfield’s teams have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss at home to a conference rival. BYU had two Kedon Slovis interceptions returned for touchdowns in their loss to Kansas last week. After committing 16 turnover-worthy plays last season playing at Pittsburgh, he already has six turnover-worthy plays this season. The Cougars' game-calling is not helping him out either — as they rank 120th in the nation in Rushing Rate while ranking last in the FBS in Rushing Success Rate. The BYU offensive line was completely remade in the offseason with their two returning starters changing positions to accommodate transfers and new starters. It’s not working — they are allowing a pressure rate of 33.3% of their snaps. The Cougars rank 125th in the nation in Line Yards — and this all results in them ranking 126th in the FBS in Success Rate Overall. My question for this team in my offseason deep-dive was whether the Cougars would have the physicality on their roster to sustain a full season of Power-Five conference play. Head coach Kalani Sitake’s team began their first season in the Big 12 with 15 starters back from last year’s team that finished 8-5. They closed out the year by winning four games in a row culminating in a 24-23 victory against SMU in the New Mexico Bowl. Only five of their games were against Power-Five conference opponents or Notre Dame last year — and they went 2-3 in those five contests. Depth is a big concern for the roster — and they only returned two starters apiece on the offensive and defensive lines. BYU return home after playing their last two games on the road with the trip beginning with a 38-31 win at Arkansas — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 44 games after a two-game road stand. They have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of 19 home games after playing two games in a row where 60 or more combined points were scored.

FINAL TAKE: In the Cougars' last 9 home games as an underdog, they have failed to cover the point spread 6 times. 10* CFB Friday Late Show Bailout with the Cincinnati Bearcats (119) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the BYU Cougars (120). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (114) plus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (113). THE SITUATION: North Carolina State (3-1) comes off a 24-21 win at Virginia as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Louisville (4-0) has won their first four games after their 56-28 win against Boston College as a 14-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLFPACK PLUS THE POINTS: The Wolfpack have not covered the point spread yet this season — but they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after failing to cover the point spread in four games in a row. They are riding a two-game winning streak coming into this game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after winning but failing to cover the point spread in their last two games as the favorite. My question for this team before the season started regarded whether or not they would pass the ball as much as the 2021 Virginia team that also had Brennan Armstrong at quarterback and Robert Onae as the offensive coordinator. Eleventh-year head coach Dave Doeren picked up Armstrong in the transfer portal from Virginia and reunited the Cavaliers three-year captain with his offensive coordinator in his freshman and sophomore seasons before Onae moved to Syracuse for one season last year. Two years ago, Virginia scored 34.6 PPG and generated 514 YPG. But Doeren has tended to prefer more balance on offense in the past to help complement the Wolfpack defense that has ranked 19th and 21st in Total Yardage in the last two seasons. So far this season, Doeren has not given Onae the green light to unleash their passing attack as they are running the ball 65% of the time -- and Armstrong ranks 110th in Yards-Per-Attempt. But now hosting this Cardinals team that ranks 74th in the nation in Opponent Passing Success Allowed — and they have allowed all three of their FBS opponents to pass for at least 295 yards. Louisville has won both of their games this season decided by one scoring possession — although they did get outgained by Georgia Tech in their opener. The question I have for this team is how close can the Cardinals come to replicating the recent success of the Purdue offense? Former quarterback Jeff Brohm returned to his alma mater after serving as the head coach of the Boilermakers for five seasons and leading them to the Big Ten Championship Game last season. He installed his version of an Air Raid attack — and he brought in his former QB Jack Plummer to operate the offense after passing for 6500 yards in his career which includes four years at Purdue. But the senior graduate transfer left the Purdue program a year ago for California because he lost the starting QB job to Aidan O’Connell — and the Cardinals lost three of their top four receivers from last season. Plummer had 19 Big Time throws for the Golden Bears last season — but he also had 18 turnover-worthy plays. Brohm has worked the transfer portal by bringing in over 25 new players — but most of these players come from non-Power Five conference programs. The defense replaced NFL players on all three levels. Louisville has played two games on a neutral field already this year — but this will be their first game played in a hostile environment. The Cardinals gained 582 yards last week against the Eagles — but Brohm’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their 14 games after they gained at least 575 yards in their last game. Additionally, Brohm’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after scoring 50 or more points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: North Carolina State will be looking to avenge their 25-10 loss at Louisville as a 4-point underdog last November 19th. They did beat the Cardinals by a 28-13 score the last time they hosted them at Carter-Finley Stadium back on October 30th 2021. 8* CFB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the North Carolina State Wolfpack (114) plus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (102) plus the point(s) versus the Detroit Lions (101). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (2-1) improved their record to 2-1 with an 18-17 upset win against New Orleans as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Detroit (2-1) has the same record after their 20-6 win at home against Atlanta as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINT(S): Green Bay comes into this game with momentum after their win against the Saints — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset victory in their last game. The Packers have covered the point spread in all three of their games this season — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. And with that game finishing Under the Total, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The main question I had about this team coming into the season was whether they might respond similarly as the Seattle Seahawks did last year once their long-time franchise quarterback was granted his trade request. The Seahawk players seemed happy to see Russell Wilson leave — and perhaps the Packer players were pleased to tell Aaron Rodgers to not let the door hit him as he left for New York. While head coach Matt LaFleur is on the hot seat in his fifth year with the team, he gets to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers. And with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility. Love demonstrated his poise by leading an 18-point comeback in the fourth quarter last week to steal that game against New Orleans. He has been a threat with his legs — he has rushed for 74 yards this season on 14 carries with a crucial touchdown last week. Those numbers are similar to Josh Allen’s 89 rushing yards on 12 carries and Deshaun Watson’s 83 yards on 15 carriers with both mobile QBs also having one touchdown. The Packers’ defense has eight former first-round draft picks — and they rank 10th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA rankings so far this season. Green Bay stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games against NFC opponents — and they have covered the points spread in 11 of their last 13 games as an underdog. LaFleur expects to get running back Aaron Jones back for this game which should help to get their running game going after not rushing for more than 95 yards in a game yet this season. The Packers have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in three straight games. Green Bay is still dealing with some other injuries with left tackle David Bahktiari, left guard Elgton Jenkins, and linebacker De’Vondae Campbell out. They have developed some nice depth on their offensive line with players like Zach Tom able to ease into the starting left tackle position after giving up only one sack in 489 snaps last season. The Lions are still the more banged-up team — starting right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai is out along with offensive lineman Matt Nelson. Their defense is without defensive linemen James Houston and Josh Paschal along with cornerback C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Detroit held the Falcons to just 183 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 200 rushing yards in their last game. And while the Lions have not allowed more than 95 rushing yards this season after holding Atlanta to 44 rushing yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. The hype surrounding this team is enormous right now with them now having won 10 of their last 13 games — but remember that their most important contest during that stretch was in Week 15 last season when a victory on the road against Carolina would have given them the upper hand in controlling their playoff destiny. But they surrendered 570 total yards to the Panthers in a 37-23 loss that ultimately kept them out of the postseason. Admittedly, Jared Goff was very effective in the second half of the season once he stopped throwing interceptions. But Goff was at his best at home including high-profile losses on Thanksgiving to Buffalo and in a shootout (loss) in September to Philadelphia (before that team’s continued in-season improvement). At home at Ford Field last year, the Lions scored 33 Points-Per-Game with Goff averaging 274 passing Yards-Per-Game with 23 touchdown passes, only three interceptions, and a QBR of 110. But on the road, Detroit’s scoring dropped to 19 PPG with Goff averaging 245 passing YPG with a mere four touchdown passes, four interceptions, and a QBR of 87. So far this season, those disparate home/road splits have continued for Goff. He has averaged 283.0 passing YPG while completing 73.5% of his passes in his two home starts -- but in his one start on the road this season at Kansas City, those numbers dropped to 253 passing yards and a 62.9% completion percentage. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 44 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 road games when favored by three points or less.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers certainly had this game circled after the Lions spoiled their opportunity to make the playoffs on the last Sunday night game of the regular season at Lambeau Field. Detroit upset them in both games last season — but Goff only completed 37 of his 60 passes (61.7%) for 361 yards in both games with the Lions averaging just 287.5 total YPG. The Packers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (102) plus the point(s) versus the Detroit Lions (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (480) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (479). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (0-2) has lost their first two games of the season after their 27-24 upset loss to Baltimore as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (1-1) comes off a 30-23 loss to San Francisco as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: Quarterback Joe Burrow remains a game-time decision with his injured calf as of 5:30 PM ET. Even if he does not play and Jake Browning makes his first start of his career, this is a “gotta have it” game for the team that reached the AFC Championship Game last season. The Bengals' defense needs to step up tonight after allowing 382.5 total Yards-Per-Game this season. This is a group that ranked fifth in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ DVOA defensive metrics last season. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by three points or less. They need to get their ground game going to help either Burrow or Browning after rushing for just 66 yards last week while getting outrushed by -112 yards. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after failing to rush for no more than 75 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after getting outrushed by -100 or more yards in their last game. Los Angeles is playing hard for head coach Sean McVay — but talent remains a problem for this team just two seasons removed from their Super Bowl championship. The Rams lost 20 players from last year’s team that was just 5-12. They drafted 14 players last April and signed another 26 undrafted rookies — and these young players are the foundation of this team. Wide receiver Cooper Kupp remains out with his hamstring injury. Los Angeles had a -2 net turnover margin last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after playing a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (480) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (477). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (2-0) has won their opening two games of the season after their 34-28 win against Minnesota as a 6-point favorite back on September 14th. Tampa Bay (2-0) is also unbeaten this season after their 27-17 win against Chicago as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Eagles got their ground game going against the hapless Vikings defense in their second game as they rushed for 259 yards. But they have failed to cover the point spread in  8 of their last 13 games after rushing for 250 or more yards. Philadelphia has scored 59 points in their first two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. Minnesota only ran the ball nine times in that game — and they picked up only 28 rushing yards. But the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 30 rushing yards in their last contest. Philadelphia ranked second in total defense last season by allowing only 301.5 total Yards-Per-Game — but I considered that unit overrated going into the Super Bowl which was one of the reasons we were Kansas City and the Over in that game. The Eagles benefited from a soft schedule and some fortunate breaks regarding injuries to opposing quarterbacks. They beat a 49ers team lacking a quarterback that could throw a forward pass in the second half of the NFC Championship Game. They caught Dallas without Dak Prescott for a game. They beat the New York Giants with Daniel Jones three times. The best quarterback that they may have beaten all season was Trevor Lawrence — or maybe Jared Goff — and both those games against Jacksonville and Detroit were in the first half of the season before both those teams made big second-half improvements. Now this Philly defense lost five starters in the offseason even before the injuries in the secondary mentioned earlier — and they will also be without middle linebacker Nakobe Dean leaving that unit thin. After allowing 382 yards to New England in Week One, Minnesota generated another 374 yards against them last week. Tampa Bay has surprised many pundits who expected them to be one of the worst teams in the league despite them outgaining their opponents by +18.4 net Yards-Per-Game. Tom Brady was still effective at quarterback in his swan song season — but his desire to throw the ball left the Buccaneers imbalanced as they were last in the NFL by averaging only 76.9 rushing Yards-Per-Game. It is fashionable to dump on Baker Mayfield — but while he is not going to live up to the hype of being the first pick in the NFL draft, he is still a solid quarterback when healthy. While he is unpopular in the national media, his teammates love him — and he sounds like he has matured since losing the QB job in Carolina last year. His numbers this season are astounding — he is completing 69% of his passes and has yet to commit a turnover. When under pressure this season, Mayfield has completed 15 of 21 passes for 230 yards while posting a QBR of 123. Tampa Bay has converted 20 of their 23 third downs this year. Mayfield has as good of wide receivers as perhaps ever in his career in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. With him under center, the team can run the ball a bit more in an attack that is more what head coach Todd Bowles would like to see. The Buccaneers still have many of the players who were on the Super Bowl team in 2021 — nose tackle Vita Via, linebackers Lavonte David, Devin White, and Shaquil Barrett, safety Antoine Winfield, and cornerback Carlton Davis III remain key contributors on the defensive side of the ball. Tampa Bay is allowing only 17.0 Points-Per-Game and just 302.5 Yards-Per-Game. They have forced five turnovers in their first two games. And the Bucs remain stout in stopping the run under Bowles' leadership — they rank second in the NFL by allowing only 54 rushing YPG. Bowles’ teams going back to the New York Jets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points — and his teams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in September. 10* NFL Philadelphia-Tampa Bay ABC-TV Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (477). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (476). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-1) looks to build off their 26-22 upset win at home against Cleveland as a 2-point underdog on Monday. Las Vegas (1-1) comes off a 38-10 loss at Buffalo as a  7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh may have gutted out the win against AFC North rival on Monday after their defense scored two touchdowns — but head coach Mike Tomlin should have had an attentive audience this week after his team got outgained by -153 net yards. The offense has been anemic with second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett struggling and offensive coordinator Matt Canada under intense fire for his play-calling and schemes. But the Steelers have faced two tough defenses in San Francisco and Cleveland who may both have top-five defenses this season. Getting to play against the Raiders should help Pickett have his best game of the season. Las Vegas is only producing pressure on the quarterback on 10.5% of their dropbacks — and opposing quarterbacks are completing 81.7% of their passes. The Steelers defense gave up 198 rushing yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after alloying 175 or more rushing yards in their last contest. Tightening things up in the ground game was high on the list of priorities after they also gave up 188 rushing yards to the 49ers — and Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in two straight contests. The Steelers miss the injured Cam Heyward — but they should be better this week. After playing their first two games at home, they go on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 71 games after a two-game home stand with three covers in their last four games under those circumstances. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road as an underdog of up to three points. Las Vegas opened their season by beating a now 0-3 Denver team that just gave up 70 points this afternoon — but they only scored 17 points in the win. The Raiders may have been exposed last week against the Bills — and a bounce back may not be in the cards as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 14 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games after a loss by 21 or more points. Some of Las Vegas' troubles start with their rushing attack which is averaging only 58 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Josh Jacobs is only generating 1.6 Yards-Per-Carry. The Raiders may only have one quality offensive lineman in left tackle Kolton Miller — everyone else may be just replacement-level guys. Is second-year general manager Dave Ziegler simply continuing the mismanagement of talent evaluation that was endemic in the Jon Gruden residency in Vegas with general manager Mike Mayock (plucked away from the television booth)? Ziegler has continued an approach in the NFL draft that appears to be based on only watching nationally televised games in the 3:30 PM ET and prime-time windows. Signing linebacker Chandler Jones as a free agent last season seemed ill-advised — and it has been a disaster with the 33-year-old now away from the team due to personal issues. Mayock buried this roster through years of over-drafting Clemson and Alabama players that were busts on and off the field. And this team is favored? The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has won nine of their last 12 games with T.J. Watt healthy and on the field. They have also won four of their five prime-time games with Pickett at quarterback. The Raiders have lost all three of their prime-time games under head coach Josh McDaniels. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (467) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (468). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (1-1) evened their record this season with their 31-20 upset victory at Houston as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Baltimore (2-0) comes off a 27-24 upset win in Cincinnati as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 46 games after a double-digit win. While they will be without rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson for this game, they are in good hands with the veteran Gardner Minshew who has a career 63.0% completion percentage with 57 touchdown passes and only 24 interceptions. The Colts averaged 6.95 Yards-Per-Play last week with Minshew playing most of the game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after generating at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Remember that Minshew played under Indianapolis rookie head coach Shane Steichen last year when they were both with Philadelphia — so he is very familiar with his schemes. Baltimore is dealing with a bevy of injuries. Offensive linemen Ronnie Stanley and center Tyler Linderbaum are out on offense. The defense will be without safety Marcus Williams and cornerback Marlon Humphrey along with outside linebacker Ode Owen and safety Ar’Darius Washington. The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread win. Additionally, Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games favored by up to seven points — and the Colts have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games as an underdog. 8* NFL Big Dog Surprise with the Indianapolis Colts (467) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (468). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (457) minus the points versus the New York Jets (458). THE SITUATION: New England (0-2) has lost their opening two games after their 24-17 loss at home to Miami on Sunday night as a 1-point underdog. New York (1-1) comes off a 30-10 loss at Dallas as an 8-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England will be playing with desperation this afternoon as they look to avoid starting the season 0-3 which will all but ruin their postseason aspirations — especially with two of the losses being against divisional rivals. It is fashionable to dump on head coach Bill Belichick because he has not been as successful as Tom Brady after their split in 2020 — but his teams have not gone worse than 7-9 in the three seasons since (despite being ravaged with roster attrition in that 2020 COVID season). The Patriots reached the playoffs in the 2021 season even with a rookie at quarterback — an achievement that would deserve Coach of the Year accolades if the individual was an “offensive” coach who once sat at the lunch table with Sean McVay. Belichick can still coach — he just has a different mentality that the en vogue methods of the young crop of offensive play-caller/head coaches. The defensive mentality coming from Belichick raises the floor of minimum expectations (like Mike Tomlin) — and that is why his teams have not bottomed out like McVay’s Rams did last season. So let’s keep some perspective: the Patriots lost by one scoring possession to both the NFC representatives in the Super Bowl (Philadelphia) and an AFC playoff team last week. This remains a team that outscored their opponents last season despite an 8-9 record. Belichick’s Patriots have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss at home. They were outgained by -101 net yards last week with the Dolphins averaging 6.48 Yards-Per-Play — but New England has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 6 or more YPP. The Patriots ranked eighth in the NFL last year by holding their opponents to just 322.0 YPG - and they are only giving up 320 YPG this season despite playing the potent Eagles and Dolphins offenses. The other side of the ball is in much better hands under offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien after the Matt Patricia/Joe Judge coordinator experiments of last season. Quarterback Mac Jones has a better relationship with O’Brien — and he does lead the NFL in completions this season. He gives the Patriots a big edge this afternoon when compared to the Jets’ Zach Wilson. The third-year pro has been eaten alive by Belichick’s defenses in his career — in his four games starting against New England, Wilson has posted a 50.8 Passer Rating with only two touchdown passes and seven interceptions. The Jets lost all four games while scoring less than 10 PPG. This is a volatile situation with Wilson their best option under center after the Aaron Rodgers injury — and further failures against the dreaded Patriots today may quickly pick the scab of his unpopularity inside the locker room and with the Jets’ fans. In his 23 career starts, Wilson has 22 interceptions — and he is last in the NFL so far this season in Passer Rating and completion percentage. In theory, New York has a robust rushing attack to help him out — but they only ran for 64 yards last week against the Cowboys. The Jets’ offensive line is a mess with the underachieving Mekhi Bechton at right tackle — and now left tackle Duane Brown is out for this game with a shoulder and hip issues. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: With Tropical Rainstorm Ophelia impacting the Meadowlands, rain and wind are expected for this game. The last time the Patriots started 0-3 was in 2000 — so the Belichick approach of being patient and waiting for the other guy to start making mistakes will likely be the prudent approach under these weather conditions. As it is, New England has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when favored by seven points or less — and the Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as a home underdog of seven points or less. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (457) minus the points versus the New York Jets (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Penn State Nittany Lions (426) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (425). THE SITUATION: Penn State (3-0) has won their first three games of the season after their 30-13 victory at Illinois as a 14-point road favorite last Saturday. Iowa (3-0) has won their first three contests after their 41-10 win against Western Michigan as a 28.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NITTANY LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: The question for the Hawkeyes entering the season was where they could develop an even mid-level offensive attack. They scored only 17.7 Points-Per-Game and generated just 251.5 total Yards-Per-Game last season, ranking 122nd and 129th in the nation. Head coach Kirk Ferentz, in his 25th year with the program, may be forced to abandon nepotism if things do not improve this year with his son, Brian, only renewed on a one-year contract to continue as the offensive coordinator with the stipulations being the team has to register at least seven wins while generating 25.5 PPG. The senior Ferentz turned to Michigan for help by bringing senior quarterback Cade McNamara and senior tight end Erick All as transfers to help jumpstart the offense. But there are reasons why both players were not first-stringers for the Wolverines last year. The Iowa defense should once again be thought with 10 of the 16 players who logged at least 200 snaps returning. They were second in the nation by allowing only 13.3 PPG and 270.8 YPG. But Ferentz’s style of play on offense helps the defense — so significant changes on offense could disrupt the formula on defense. Iowa scored only 24 and 20 points in their opening two games against Utah State and Iowa State. The Hawkeyes finally toppled their offensive coordinator’s necessary quota against the Broncos last week — but it was not because of their passing attack. McNamara only completed 9 of 19 passes for 103 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. He is a gamer who led Michigan to the College Football Playoff two years ago — but the Wolverines coaching staff moved off him for J.J. McCarthy because there is a ceiling to his potential given his arm talent. To make the situation even worse, McNamara will be undermanned this week due to injuries. Iowa will be without their top two running backs, Kaleb Johnson and Leshon Williams, as well as their top tight end Luke Lachey for this game. The Hawkeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 53 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite in their last game. And while they have covered the point spread in their last two games as the favorite, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 28 games after covering the point spread as the favorite in two straight games. Penn State has covered the point spread in 40 of their last 63 games after a victory on the road against a Big Ten rival — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. With two of the four College Football Playoff teams in their division in the Big Ten conference, can the Nittany Lions reach the elite level necessary to compete against Ohio State and Michigan? They have lost nine of their last 12 games against the traditional Big Two in the conference since 2017. Even worse, they are winless in their last ten games against top-ten opponents in the last six seasons under head coach James Franklin. The hope is that the team is ready to take this final step with the offense turning over to sophomore blue-chipper Drew Allar at quarterback after four years of the capable if unspectacular Sean Clifford under center. Allar struggled in his first start on the road in his career last week by completing only 16 of 33 passes for 208 yards. But the offense still generated 483 total yards against the Illini with Singleton and fellow sophomore Kaytron Allen leading a rushing attack that ran for 164 yards. The Hawkeyes' run defense may not be quite as stout this season — they rank 69th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and they rank 74th in Line Yards Allowed.  

FINAL TAKE: With rain expected with winds up to 10 miles per hour, the respective rushing attacks may be even more important tonight -- and that gives the edge to Penn State. The Nittany Lions have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games when favored in the 10.5-14 point range after their late cover with Franklin’s aggressive late game management. 10* CFB Iowa-Penn State CBS-TV Special with the Penn State Nittany Lions (426) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (425). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (423) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (424). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (3-0) has won their first three games of the season after their 63-10 win against Western Kentucky as a 30-point favorite last Saturday. Notre Dame (4-0) has won their opening four games of the season with their 41-17 win against Central Michigan as a 35-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: The Fighting Irish have dominated their first four opponents by scoring at least 41 points in all four of their games — and they have generated at least 456 yards in their last three games after putting up 444 total yards in Ireland against Navy in their opening game of the season. But Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after scoring 31 or more points in four straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after gaining at least 40 yards in three straight games. Can the Fighting Irish compete for the College Football Playoff by repeating the power rushing attack they successfully deployed last season —and if not, is adding Sam Hartman at quarterback enough to transform the passing attack against elite competition? The Irish lost their first three games in the first three games under head coach Marcus Freeman last season with them only scoring 23.7 PPG and generating 5.6 Yards-Per-Play in their first six games. But after switching to a power-rushing attack, the Fighting Irish scored 38.7 PPG and averaged 6.2 YPP — and they returned two great starting tackles to serve as the foundation for this approach. Hartman offers the hope of a more sophisticated passing attack after passing for more than 300 YPG in the last two seasons for Wake Forest. But is there a true number-one wide receiver option from a unit that ranked sixth-to-last in receptions of 40 or more yards last year? Ohio State covered the point spread for the first time this season with their 53-point win against the Hilltoppers last week — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Additionally, the Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win at home by 17 or more points. After their two-game home stand, they go back on the road for the second time this season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a two-game home stand. Head coach Ryan Day has reached the College Football Playoff in three of the first four years under his leadership — but is his zeal to mold a team prepared for those potential games making the Buckeyes vulnerable against their biggest obstacle to winning a Big Ten Championship? Michigan has beaten them by 15 and 22 points in the last two seasons by controlling both sides of the line of scrimmage. Previous head coach Urban Meyer has subtly suggested that the program has gotten softer regarding their physicality with all the speed on the roster — and Day is certainly aware of this criticism. After four years of Justin Fields and C.J. Stroud under center, Day has to find a new quarterback this season amidst this challenge. And attention must be paid to their defense that allowed 87 combined points and a whopping 8.9 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games against the Wolverines and then Georgia in the playoff semifinals. The progress on defense is very encouraging after Ohio State has given up only 20 combined points this season. The Buckeyes rank 10th in the nation in Finishing Drives Allowed. The development at quarterback has been slower — but junior Kyle McCord comes off his best game of the season as he completed 19 of 23 passes for 318 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.

FINAL TAKE: Notre Dame does not have the roster talent of the Georgia and Michigan teams that have handed them their most recent three losses going to September of 2021. Ohio State has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games on the road when favored by up to seven points — and the Fighting Irish have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. 8* CFB Ohio State-Notre Dame NBC-TV Special with the Ohio State Buckeyes (423) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (424). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (344) plus the points versus BYU (343). THE SITUATION: Kansas (3-0) has won their opening three games of the season after their 31-24 victory at Nevada as a 28-point favorite last Saturday. BYU (3-0) remained unbeaten this year after their 38-31 upset win at Arkansas as a 9-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAYHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas dominated the Wolf Pack last week but had trouble translating red zone trips into more points — they gained 442 total yards of offense and outgained Nevada by +179 net yards. The Jayhawks have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after a win on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after winning two or more games in a row. BYU rallied from a 24-21 halftime deficit in their upset win in Fayetteville last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games on the road after allowing 24 or more points in the first half in their last game. They pulled off the upset victory despite getting outgained by -143 net yards by the Razorbacks. BYU committed just their second turnover of the season last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not committing more than one turnover in three straight games. The Cougars have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning three or more games in a row. They stay on the road for the second straight game this week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after playing on the road in their last game. They have scored 79 points in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: BYU faces their inaugural game as a member of the Big 12 against a conference rival in this one — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games in the first half of the season. 8* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Kansas Jayhawks (344) plus the points versus BYU (343). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (336) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (335). THE SITUATION: Clemson (2-1) has won two straight games after their 48-14 win against FAU as a 24.5-point favorite last Saturday. Florida State (3-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 31-29 win at Boston College as a 27.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Clemson will be circling the wagons for this contest as they look to redeem themselves from their Week One upset loss at Duke and maintain their College Football Playoff hopes alive. This game will be just the second time in the Tigers' last 60 home games at Memorial Stadium where they will be an underdog. After making the College Football Playoffs in six straight years, Clemson has lost three games in each of the last two seasons. Was this program temporarily propped up by two great coordinators while getting lucky with two generational talents at quarterback in Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence? Both offensive coordinator Tony Elliott and defensive coordinator Brent Venables left the program after the 2021-22 season to become head coaches elsewhere. Head coach Dabo Swinney seemed to point the finger at D.J. Uiagalelelei as the source of the problem when he benched him for freshman Cade Klubnik in the ACC Championship Game. Swinney brought in Garrett Riley to implement the Air Raid offense he installed as the offensive coordinator for TCU last year — and the defense remains loaded with blue-chip talent destined for the NFL. Klubnik remains a work in progress, especially with the vertical passing game — but Clemson should be able to move the ball on the ground to set up advantageous passing situations. Running backs Will Shipley and Phil Mafah have combined to generate 130.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game on 6.4 Yards-Per-Carry. Shipley continues to be one of the best running backs in the country by averaging 6.1 YPC and producing +3.6 YPC after contact. This duo has helped the Tigers rank 12th in the nation in Success Rate on offense. The Seminoles have been vulnerable with their run defense. They rank 122nd in Opponent Rush Explosiveness Allowed after Boston College ran for 150 yards against them. Stopping the run was an issue for this team last season as well as they ranked 74th in the nation by allowing 156.4 rushing YPG — and they ranked 63rd in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. The Clemson defense has only allowed 19.7 Points-Per-Game and 246.7 YPG. While Duke quarterback Riley Leonard burned them on a 44-yard rushing touchdown in their opener, they did hold the NFL prospect to just 175 passing yards on his 38 attempts. The Tigers rank 15th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed and 23rd in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — and they rank eighth in Havoc Rate. Clemson has only allowed 366 total yards in their last two games since the loss to the Blue Devils — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 200 total YPG in their last two contests. And while their last two games have gone Over the Total with at least 62 combined points scored in both games, they have then covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after playing two games in a row where 60 or more combined points were scored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing two straight Overs. Florida State wants to believe the glory days back for the Seminoles in the fourth season under head coach Mike Norvell after their opening week upset victory against LSU in Orlando. Last year, they led the ACC by outgaining their opponents by +164.6 net YPG — and 11 All-ACC players are back from that group that won their final six games. Depth remains an issue for this team that is still rebuilding after four straight losing seasons. While they looked great against LSU and then Southern Mississippi, they got outgained by a mediocre Eagles team last week by -107 net yards with their defense giving up 457 total yards. That contest was their first game on the road — and they stay on the road this week for perhaps their biggest game in the Norvell era. Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by three points or less on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a win on the road by three points or less against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 8 road games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: Have the Seminoles turned just one corner — or all of the corners — necessary to return to College Football Playoff contention? They have lost seven straight games to the Tigers — and the last time they beat them in Memorial Stadium was 2013. Now they are favored which is a rare motivational opportunity for Dabo Swinney in his sixteenth year running the program — and Clemson has covered the point spread in 11 of the 15 home games as an underdog against a ranked opponent under his leadership. 25* CFB ACC Game of the Month with the Clemson Tigers (336) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (335). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Giants (301) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (302). THE SITUATION: New York (1-1) rebounded from their embarrassing loss to Dallas on Sunday Night Football with a 31-28 victory at Arizona as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (2-0) is unbeaten in their first two games after their 30-23 victory on the road against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: We bet numbers rather than teams — and expecting the 49ers to win by more than 10 points is probably too much to ask. New York certainly qualifies as an ugly underdog after the humiliating 40-0 loss on national television to the Cowboys — and then they continued to look terrible in the first half against the woeful Cardinals by going into the locker room trailing by a 20-0 score. But the Giants deserve credit for picking themselves off the mat by outscoring Arizona by a 31-7 score in the second half to secure the victory. Head coach Brian Daboll took over the play-calling of the offense in the second half — and that unit clearly got energized by that decision. Quarterback Daniel Jones completed 26 of 37 passes for 321 yards with two touchdown passes — and he added another 59 rushing yards with another touchdown. I think everyone understands that the Giants were incredibly fortunate to reach the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs last year after getting outscored and outgained in yardage during the regular season. Posting an 8-4-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession got them into the playoffs — and they had an opportune first-round draw against a Minnesota team that had an even more improbable 11-0 record in games decided by one scoring possession. But last year’s good fortunes do not disqualify this team from improving the 8-9 team that the underlying analytics grading this team out as. Daboll immediately fixed Jones’ turnover problems as the fifth-year pro threw only five interceptions — and his 1.1% interception rate was the best in the NFL for regular starting QBs. Can the team can add team speed, find more playmakers on offense to stretch the field, and improve their run defense? If so, then they could certainly develop into a more deserving playoff team this season. Football Outsiders' weighted DVOA metrics ranked them as the seventh-best team in the league, for what that is worth. To address their run defense that ranked 27th in the NFL by allowing 144.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game, they signed defensive tackles A’Shawn Robinson and Rakeem Nunez-Roches along with linebacker Bobby Okereke in free agency who all have good reputations as run stuffers. In that opening-week loss to the Cowboys, the Giants did hold Dallas to just 122 rushing yards on 20 carries. A healthier wide receiver room will help with playmakers to help Jones in the passing game — and they traded for Darren Waller from Las Vegas to give him a viable number-one target. He led the team in targets last week while catching six balls for 76 yards. New York drafted Jalin Hyatt from Tennessee in the third round in the draft last spring — and Daboll got him going in the second half last week with the deep threat catching two balls for 89 yards. Going inside the numbers of that Cowboys debacle, the Giants started well by driving down the field for a field goal opportunity. But after that kick got blocked and returned for a special teams touchdown for Dallas — and then Jones threw a pick-six later in the first quarter — the momentum in that game became overwhelming for the Cowboys who could then pin their ears back and rush the passer to protect their big lead (in rainy weather). There are not many NFL teams who were not going to get blown out after such an auspicious start against this Dallas team. And New York was still hungover from that bad game traveling out west to play a bad Cardinals team. But I expect their best game of the season in a situation where no one expects them to compete. I like that they stayed out west this week to prepare for this game. The defense is playing well — they are only allowing 322 YPG. Despite getting outscored and outgained last year, only three of their regular season losses were by double-digits. They have not been given any favors regarding injuries with running back Saquon Barkley, left tackle Andrew Thomas, and linebacker Azeez Ojulari all out for this game. But backup running back Matt Breida is a veteran who is a capable backup. The Giants have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a win on the road by three points or less. Expect New York to get off to a better start in this one after two straight disastrous first halves — they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 22 games after allowing 17 or more points in the first half of two straight games. The Giants averaged 8.28 Yards-Per-Play last week (even with the Barkley injury) — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 road games after generating at least 6.5 YPP in their last game. And in their last 10 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range, they have covered the point spread 7 times. San Francisco may be a bit overvalued coming into this third game. They easily beat a Pittsburgh team that is experiencing major issues on the offensive side of the ball. And while the Rams are playing better than expected this season, it is not a good sign for the 49ers that they were outgained by that Los Angeles team by 21 net yards. The Niners are benefitting from winning the turnover battle in their first two games with a +3 net turnover margin — and that is something Daboll will preach to his team to not play into. The 49ers may have the best roster in the NFL but the biggest question remains: how good will their play be at the quarterback position? For those of us who handicapped every Brock Purdy game when he played in college at Iowa State, we appreciate why he was Mr. Irrelevant in the NFL draft. With 48 career starts, he has tons of experience which helps his decision-making. And because he is accurate in the short and intermediate passing game, perhaps he is a great fit for the Kyle Shanahan offense. But he lacks arm strength for a dynamic vertical passing game — and he threw too many interceptions for the Cyclones when asked to be a gunslinger. In the playoffs last season, Seattle, Dallas, and then Philadelphia exposed his tendency to bail to his left when under pressure (and it contributed to his wrist injury). The loss of right tackle Mike McGlinchey to Denver in free agency may haunt this team since ample time is an essential requirement for the Shanahan offense to purr — and Purdy holds on to the ball a little longer than Jimmy Garoppolo. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is questionable tonight with a shoulder injury — he was considered 50-50% to play yesterday and will be a game-time decision tonight. Even if he plays, he may not be 100% — and he is important to the offense as a legitimate deep threat who opens up the middle of the field. This will be the Niners' first home game this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 62 home games after playing their last two games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: This situation is similar to when the Giants played in Dallas on a short week on Thanksgiving as a 10-point underdog — and they covered the point spread in a 28-20 loss in that game. New York has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games played on a Thursday — and San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games played on a Thursday. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the New York Giants (301) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (303) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (304). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (3-0) has won their first three games of the season with their 41-25 victory at Charlotte as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. Coastal Carolina (2-1) has won two straight games after their 66-7 victory against Duquesne as a 34.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Chanticleers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last game. And while that game finished Over the 56-point Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games after a game that finished Over the Total. After 30 victories in the previous three seasons, will this program experience a drop-off after Jamey Caldwell took the head coaching job at Liberty? The cupboard is not empty with 30 seniors or super sixth-year seniors returning led by quarterback Grayson McCall, the three-time Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year. But despite their 6-2 conference record, the Chanticleers got outgained by -20 Yards-Per-Game against Sun Belt opponents. North Carolina State offensive coordinator Tim Beck got tapped as their new head coach — but this team will go as far as their defense can play well. Six starters return to a unit switching to a 4-3 formation after ranking 110th in the FBS by allowing 31.8 Points-Per-Gams and 101s in the nation by giving up 418.0 Yards-Per-Game. This team won all five of their games decided by one-scoring possession — and that will be difficult to come close to replicating if the defense does not improve. While they held the Dukes to only 347 yards last week, their two FBS opponents, UCLA and Jacksonville State both generated more than 400 yards against them. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a point spread victory. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the 49ers — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last contest. After three straight winning seasons, the Panthers dropped to 4-8 last year. Is this team trending in the wrong direction in the seventh season under head coach Shawn Elliott — or were they simply snake-bit by losing all five of their games decided by seven points or less by a combined 18 points? One-third of the roster has turned over either from transfers or exhausted eligibility — but senior dual-threat quarterback Darren Grainger is back after rushing for 908 non-sacking rushing yards and tossing 19 touchdown passes with only four interceptions. So far so good — but this will be the team’s biggest test so far this season. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after a point spread victory. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road — and they habit covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the pint spray in 8 of their last 9 games when favored in the 3.5-10 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when listed the 3.5-7 point range. 8* CFB Georgia State-Coastal Carolina ESPN Special with the Georgia State Panthers (303) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (292) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (291). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 30-7 loss to San Francisco as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Cleveland (1-0) opened their season with a 24-3 win against Cincinnati as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh was overwhelmed by the 49ers last week — but head coach Mike Tomlin should rally his troops in this divisional rivalry game tonight despite injuries to defensive end Cam Hayward and wide receiver Dionte Johnson. The Steelers closed last year strong by winning five of their last seven games — and the reports out of training camp were that they were one of the sharpest teams in the preseason — so that flat effort last week was surprising (and perhaps a statement as to how good the Niners are). Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by 21 or more points. Additionally, the Steelers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing 30 or more points. Second-year Kenny Pickett threw two interceptions last week which was out of character for him after he only threw one interception in his last eight starts last season. While he will miss Johnson as one of his targets, he still has second-year wideout George Pickens who is poised for a breakout season. Don’t be surprised if Pittsburgh deploys two tight ends frequently in this game with rookie Darnell Washington getting plenty of snaps — he is a massive 6’7 target who was underutilized in the passing game at Georgia. The Steelers will miss Heyward on their defensive line — but they have depth with their defensive ends. Remember, this group is much better with a healthy T.J. Watt — they had an 8-2 record when he was healthy last season. Pittsburgh ranked tenth in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 20.4 Points-Per-Game. Cleveland was impressive at home against a Bengals team that looked rusty on offense after Joe Burrow missed most of the preseason with a calf injury. But quarterback Deshaun Watson continued to lack the spark he demonstrated in his time at Houston — he completed only 16 of 29 passes for just 154 yards. The growing concern with Watson is that the year and a half away from football due to his injury and then suspension has zapped his juice which was his x-factor in making him a special player. The Cleveland offense is dealing with some injuries themselves. Right tackle Jack Conklin is out the season with a torn ACL and MCL — and the Browns offensive line unit is dealing with some other guys that are banged up. Wide receiver Amari Cooper is questionable with a groin — and his absence would leave them without a reliable number-one target since Donovan Peoples-Jones and Elijah Moore have not taken advantage of their past opportunities. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games on the road after a double-digit win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games after winning their last game by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win by 21 or more points. Additionally, the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against an AFC North rival. Furthermore, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. They did outgain the Bengals by +158 net yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after outgaining their last opponent by +100 or more yards. And in their last 15 games as the favorite, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of those games.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has won 19 straight games at home at Heinz Field against the Browns — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games in expected close games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Pittsburgh Steelers (292) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (291). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (290) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (289). THE SITUATION: Carolina (0-1) looks to rebound from their 24-10 loss at Atlanta as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. New Orleans (1-0) comes off a 16-15 victory against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Carolina head coach Frank Reich should have his team ready to play tonight. In his time with the Indianapolis Colts where they posted a winning 40-33-1 record during the regular season, those teams also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss to a division rival. His teams also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 14 or more points. The Panther endured a -3 net turnover margin in that game — but Reich’s teams have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Reich takes over a pretty good roster — the team went 6-6 in their last 12 games after Matt Rhule got fired. They outgained the Falcons last week by a 281 to 221 margin in yardage. Atlanta managed only 91 passing yards — and Reich’s teams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after holding their last opponent to less than 150 passing yards. New Orleans outlasted the Titans last week — but head coach Dennis Allen’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win at home. Allen’s teams in New Orleans and previously with the Oakland Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games in September. The Saints will still be without Alvin Kamara who is serving a three-game suspension to begin the year.

FINAL TAKE: Allen’s teams have not been as reliable in situations like this when they are expected to win or be in a close game. His teams have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL New Orleans-Carolina ESPN Special with the Carolina Panthers (290) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (289). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (288) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (287). THE SITUATION: New England (0-1) looks to rebound from their 25-10 loss at home against Philadelphia as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Miami (1-0) won their opening game of the season with a 36-34 victory on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England did a great job of containing the stout Eagles offense last week by holding them to just 251 total yards — and seven of Philly’s points came off a 70-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Look for head coach Bill Belichick to have a much better defensive strategy for their divisional rivals this week than what the Chargers were able to muster. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss at home. What is so frustrating about head coach Brandon Staley for Los Angeles is that his defense bottled up Tagovailoa last season by pressing their wide receivers on the line of scrimmage and then taking away the middle of the field. While Staley abandoned that plan last week perhaps playing (and losing) a three-dimensional chess game no one else was playing, look for Belichick to take that approach and adjust his personnel while engaging in a rope-a-dope scheme that encourages the Dolphins to run the football. The Patriots have held Tyreek Hill to less than 100 receiving yards in five straight games. Miami comes into this game banged up on their offensive line with left tackle Terron Armstead and Robert Jones dealing with injuries. While Brandon Staley’s Chargers defense did not do much to challenge their offensive line last week with Tua Tagovailoa untouched in the picket all game, that is not likely to be the case against this stout Patriots pass rush led by linebacker Matthew Judon. After his 15.5 sacks last season, he entered the season with 28 sacks in his 34 career games wearing a New England uniform. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a narrow win on the road by three points or less.

FINAL TAKE: Miami stays on the road for the second straight week as they travel across the country to the northeast from southern California — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the New England Patriots (288) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (279) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (280). THE SITUATION: New York (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 40-0 loss at home to Dallas as a 3-point underdog last Sunday night. Arizona (0-1) comes off a 20-16 loss at Washington as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS MINUS THE POINTS: A team could not look worse than New York did last week — but the unfolding game script needs to be taken into context. Spotting a team with a great defense like the Dallas Cowboys a special teams touchdown on a blocked field goal (a 10-point swing) and then a 22-yard interception touchdown in the first quarter in a game being played in the rain is a disaster that would overwhelm most/every team in the league. Momentum is real as good thoughts and positivity fuel better performance — and bad thoughts and negativity fertilize the ground that generates mistakes. The Giants are simply not that bad of a team (because no one is) — and now they have something to prove after being embarrassed on national television. As it is, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home by double-digits. If there is a silver lining this week for New York, it is that they get to play the tanking Arizona Cardinals. Since a 10-2 start to the 2021 season, the Cardinals have a 5-19 record. Their quarterback Joshua Dobbs was out of the league until December of last season — making him the ideal signal caller for a team trying to not be too obvious that they are trying to lose games. Kyler Murray is recovering from a torn ACL and is not likely to play this year. Arizona has Houston’s first-round draft pick next year — and they want to couple that with their own high draft pick in what would be the second season under new general manager Manti Ossenfort. They released wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins because he caught too many passes. The Cardinals defense lost J.J. Watt to retirement and Zach Allen in free agency. Special teamers are now slotted higher up the depth chart and will be expected to play. The soft tank job is in full display. A defensive touchdown made last week’s score look closer than reality. Arizona gained only 13 first downs and managed just 210 total yards. Washington head coach Ron Rivera was content to game-script his way to a four-point victory.                                                                                                

FINAL TAKE: New York was a solid road warrior last year that covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and the Cardinals won only one game at home last season while failing to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games. There will not be many opportunities this season to fade Arizona without having to lay a touchdown this season. 8* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the New York Giants (279) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (278) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (277). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (0-1) lost their opening game of the season in a 24-3 loss at Cleveland as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Baltimore (1-0) won their first game of the new season with their 25-9 victory against Houston as a 9.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: The annual Baltimore Ravens injury-fest is already in full swing this season — this group is a M*A*S*H unit in just the second week of the season in such a way that makes an already good situation great. On offense, the Ravens' star left tackle Ronnie Stanley and their rock-solid center Tyler Linderbaum are out this week along with top running back J.K. Dobbins who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury. On defense, star free safety Marcus Williams is out with a pectoral injury, and their best cornerback Marlon Humphrey is out with a foot injury. Those are five starters gone for this divisional rivalry game — including two on the offensive line and two in the secondary against Joe Burrow and company — for a team that got outgained by the woeful Texans last week. The offensive line was already facing the challenge of replacing left guard Ben Powers who left in the offseason. And this is an offense in transition under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken — they gained only 265 total yards against Houston. Lamar Jackson’s contract dispute was finally settled in the offseason — but the removal of previous OC Greg Roman seems to suggest that Jackson and the organization want to rely on Jackson’s arm more than his legs. Even if Jackson can be a successful gunslinger at this level, he may not have the offensive line this afternoon to execute that vision. As it is, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win at home. Additionally, Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread 5 straight games after a double-digit win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing less than 10 points in their last contest. They go on the road for the first time this season having failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Cincinnati was sluggish in the rain last week with the offense only gaining 142 total yards. Being on the field for only 24:10 minutes did not help — but Burrow was rusty after missing most of the preseason with a calf injury. The Browns' defense is very good this season — so playing them in bad weather when already being out of synch was far from optimal. But now this group wants to avoid another 0-2 start like last season — although the Bengals did eventually rebound to reach the AFC Championship Game. Another week of practice should have Burrow back in the groove — he competed 67% of his passes in Week Two last year despite being on the road against the stout Dallas defense. Cincinnati has covered the pints spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an AFC North rival. They also have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Burrow loves playing against the Ravens — with his perfect 3-0 record at home against Baltimore, he has averaged 316 passing Yards-Per-Game with seven touchdown passes and a Passer Rating go 110. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games against AFC rivals — and Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against the AFC North. 25* AFC North Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (278) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.    

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (183) plus the points versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (184). THE SITUATION: Northern Illinois (1-1) looks to bounce back from their 14-11 upset loss at home to Southern Illinois as an 8.5-point underdog last Saturday. Nebraska (0-2) is winless so far this season after their 36-14 loss at Colorado as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Northern Illinois did outgain the Salukis last week by a 360-219 margin in yardage    — but a -3 net turnover margin did them in. The Huskies have been resilient under head coach Thomas Hammock as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a loss by three points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. They did hold Southern Illinois to just 297 total yards including only 71 rushing yards in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 40 games after not allowing more than 75 or fewer rushing yards. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Huskies are a team that returned 15 starters from a 3-9 squad last year that vastly underachieved preseason expectations with injuries playing a big role. No player on offense started all 12 of their games. They go back on the road where they upset Boston College earlier this season — they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road. Nebraska remains a mess under first-year head coach Matt Rhule. Was Nebraska simply snakebit with bad luck under previous head coach Scott Frost — or was the continued descent of this proud program the product of the slow decline in talent on the roster? The Cornhuskers have a 3-16 record in the last three seasons in games decided by one scoring possession. Frost deserves much of the blame for that ineptitude to pull out close games — and his coaching staff did not do a good job in developing NFL talent. They got outgained by 73 YPG in the Big Ten last season. But now first-year head coach Matt Rhule is importing his culture from Temple and Baylor that did not succeed with the Carolina Panthers — and this is a program where legendary head coach Tom Osborne casts a long shadow. Recruiting is way down in Lincoln these days — and Rhule is attempting to win the transfer portal battles which was Frost’s strategy the last few seasons. Perhaps the NIL culture that Rhule is trying to establish with the alumni base is the appropriate response, but that is a long-term plan. The Cornhuskers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a loss on the road by three or more touchdowns. Their starting quarterback Jeff Sims is questionable in this game with an ankle injury — and while he has been a turnover machine in his career, the next man up is redshirt freshman Heinrich Haarbeerg is very raw as a passer.

FINAL TAKE: Nebraska has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored. Northern Illinois has covered the points spread in 13 of their 17 road games as an underdog under Hammock. Expect a close game. 8* CFB Big Dog Surprise with the Northern Illinois Huskies (183) plus the points versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (184). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio Bobcats (126) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (125). THE SITUATION: Ohio (2-1) enters this game coming off a 17-10 upset victory at Florida Atlantic as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Iowa State (1-1) comes off a 20-13 loss to Iowa as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOBCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa State’s program was rocked by its sports gambling scandal last month which has removed several players on the roster including starting quarterback Hunter Dekkers and starting Jirehl Brock (who left the team amidst the allegations). Head coach Matt Campbell has been forced to make adjustments on the fly given these unusual circumstances. Second-year freshman quarterback Rocco Becht has inherited the offense but is completing only 58% of his passes while passing for only 316 yards in his two starts. Sophomore Cartevious Norton has become the lead running back but is only generating 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry with 108 rushing yards in his two games. The Cyclones are averaging only 3.8 YPC as a team. Iowa State has been a reliable underdog in Campbell’s eight years at the helm of this program — but they have not met expectations when placed in the role as the favorite. Iowa State has faced to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road when favored. This is the Cyclones' first road game in a hostile environment this season — and it is a sandwich game situation coming off their rivalry game with the Hawkeyes before their Big 12 opener against Oklahoma State next week. Their one turnover last week was their lone giveaway of the season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. Campbell was hoping to have 15 starters back from last year’s team that underachieved with a 4-8 record (despite outgaining their opponents by +84 net Yards-Per-Game) — but the gambling scandal has changed expectations. The overall athleticism on the roster was already a question before losing their starting quarterback and running back. Red zone efficiency and giveaways held them back last season — and that is not a good sign in their first road game of this campaign. The books expect a lower-scoring game with the Total set in the low-40s. The Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Now here comes an Ohio team with 15 starters back from their 10-4 squad that bear Wyoming in the Arizona Bowl by a 30-27 score. If not for fifth-year senior Kurtis Rourke getting injured in their opening week game at San Diego State, the Bobcats could be undefeated. Instead, they lost on the road against the Aztecs by a 20-13 score as a 2-point underdog. Rourke missed their second game which they still won by a 27-10 score against Long Island. The reigning Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year returned last week and completed 18 of 29 passes for 203 yards in leading Ohio to the upset road win at FAU. Head coach Tim Albin to building a culture with this program — and it starts on the defensive side of the ball. After the Bobcats gave up 561 Yards-Per-Game in their first six games last year, they held their final seven regular season opponents to 331 YPG. This improved defensive play has carried over as they are only giving up 233 YPG — and their three opponents have been held to -162 YPG below their season averages. While some football teams experience an emotional letdown after an upset win, these triumphs tend to provide jolts of energy and confidence to the Ohio players as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after an upset victory. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two games in a row. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: With their loss to Iowa last week, Iowa State has now lost 11 of their last 12 games decided by one scoring possession. The Regression Gods may have decided this program gets what they deserve given these gambling revelations. Campbell may have inadvertently fostered a losing culture. The Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Bobcats have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CFB Saturday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Ohio Bobcats (126) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (125). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Air Force (114) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (113). THE SITUATION: Air Force (2-0) has opened the season undefeated after a 13-3 victory against Sam Houston State in Houston’s NRG Stadium as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday. Utah State (1-1) won their first game of the season with a 78-28 win against Idaho State as a 23.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS: Air Force held a feisty Sam Houston State team to just 80 total yards of offense last week with the Bearkats averaging only 1.82 Yards-Per-Play. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after holding their previous opponent to 3.25 or fewer YPP. Air Force led the nation last season by allowing only 254.4 Yards-Per-Game — and they return eight starters from that group along with nine of the 13 players that played at least 250 snaps last season. They held their opponents to -94 YPG below their season average. Even more accolades for the defense under head coach Troy Calhoun: they ranked ninth in the nation in Opponent Rushing Success Rate Allowed; they ranked third in the FBS in third-down defense while holding their last two opponents, San Diego State and Baylor, to going 0-for-21; they ranked fourth in the FBS with opponents only scoring touchdowns in 43% of their trips inside the red zone. So far this season, they rank tenth in the FBS in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. They held Robert Morris to just 165 yards in their opening game — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in two straight games. Additionally, Air Force has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when playing with six or fewer days of rest. The Falcons return 13 starters — a high number for a service academy program — from their team that finished 10-3 after beating Baylor in the Armed Forces Bowl by a 30-15 score. While they were only 5-3 in conference play, they outgained their Mountain West Conference opponents by +106 net YPG. Senior quarterback Zac Larrier has been solid operating the spread option rushing attack — he ran for 65 yards last week while Air Force held the ball for 36:38 minutes. While he does not throw the ball often, this offense does lead the nation in Explosiveness in the Passing attack when they do chuck it. The Falcons return home where they have a 73-24 record under Calhoun — and they have a 43-10 record there since 2014. Air Force has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points. Utah State rebounded from their 24-14 loss at Iowa by dominating an FCS program — but Idaho State did generate 424 total yards against them. The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 27 games after a game where 80 or more combined points were scored. They did rush for 380 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 350 yards in their last contest. This team returns only nine starters from the group that finished 6-7 last year — and that group benefited from winning all four of their games decided by one score possession. They got outgained in Mountain West Conference play despite a 5-3 conference record in the second season under head coach Blake Anderson. His teams going back to Arkansas State having failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win at home by four or more touchdowns. And while the Aggies gained 591 yards last week, Anderson’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after generating 575 or more yards in their last game. Utah State ranks only 87th in the FBS in Opponent Defensive Success Rate Allowed while ranking 66th in Opponent Rushing Success Rate Allowed. When that mediocrity gets combined with the Aggies' fast pace on offense — they rank 20th in fewest seconds per play this season, their defense may get gassed when the offense goes three-and-out in a quick series which then puts their defense back on the field.

FINAL TAKE: Anderson has pulled off two straight upsets against the Air Force in his two previous seasons at Utah State. After the Aggies gave up 437 rushing yards in a 49-45 barn-burner two years ago, they held the Falcons to 265 rushing yards on 54 carries last year — a 4.91 Yards-Per-Carry average as opposed to the 6.94 YPC they gave up in 2021. But Anderson had extra days to prepare for last year’s contest after playing BYU on a Thursday night the previous week. Now Utah State travels to Falcon Stadium on a short week with Calhoun certainly playing up the consecutive upset losses to this opponent. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Game of the Month with the Air Force (114) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (104) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (103). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-0) comes off a 25-10 win at New England as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Minnesota (0-1) opened their season with a 20-17 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 4-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia should feel good about their win on the road against the Patriots last week — but they will know not to hang on their laurels of that game after getting outgained by -131 net yards. They controlled the game early by taking a 16-0 first-quarter lead that was fueled by a 70-yard interception return for a touchdown — so the game script became for them to hold on to that lead (which they did). Philadelphia should be more aggressive on offense after only gaining 251 yards last week. The Eagles ranked third in the NFL by scoring 28.1 PPG and generating 389.1 total YPG — and their offense should be just as good this season given their continuity at wide receiver and the offensive line to help out quarterback Jalen Hurts. The Patriots presented more of a challenge from their defense. Now they face a Minnesota defense that was second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 388.7 total YPG — and they let several veterans go in the offseason as they test out the younger players in their rebuild on the fly. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the points spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by six points or less. Furthermore, Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Minnesota got upset by the Buccaneers despite outgaining them by +127 next yards. Minnesota passed the ball in 75.9% of their non-kicking snaps on offense with Kirk Cousins completing 33 of 44 passes for 344 yards. The Vikings may have lost any semblance of balance on offense given the decision to release running back Dalvin Cook in the offseason. After averaging only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry last season as Cook’s backup, Alexander Pattison only rushed for 34 yards on 11 carries last week with Minnesota only running the ball 17 times overall for a mere 41 yards. Given injuries on their offensive line, it may be even more difficult for the Vikings to establish a credible running game. Center Garrett Bradbury is out for this game with a back injury while left tackle Christian Darrisaw is questionable with an ankle injury. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after passing for 300 or more yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. After winning all 11 of their games decided by one-scoring possession, the Regression Gods have been waiting all offseason to hand the Vikings in a loss decided by one score. This remains a team that got outscored by -0.2 Points-Per-Game and outgained by -27.2 net Yards-Per-Game after getting embarrassed at home in the playoffs by the New York Giants in their 31-24 loss. Minnesota enacted a “competitive rebuild” under first-year general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah last year — but somehow won 13 regular season games. The rebuild continues with the Adofo-Mensah dumping bigger salaries including running back Dalvin Cook. A .500 or worse record this year is likely if the Regression Gods have anything to say about it.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games when favored. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia Eagles (104) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Jets (482) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (481). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) comes off a 7-10 record last season.  Buffalo (0-0) had a 14-4 season which ended in a 27-10 loss at Cincinnati in the AFC Divisional round of the playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: It should be an electric environment tonight at MetLife Stadium — between Monday Night Football, the anniversary of 9/11, and the debut of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the crowd should play a big role in tonight’s game. New York hopes to improve an offense that ranked only 29th in the NFL by scoring 17.4 PPG. While I’m not sure how effective Rodgers will be at 39-years- old, the offense can only improve with his steady hand under center as compared to Zach Wilson who has 18 interceptions in his 12 career starts. They did sign Dalvin Cook as a free agent — I look for New York to lean on their rushing attack in this contest along with their outstanding defense. The Jets ranked fourth in the NFL last season by holding their opponents to 18.6 PPG and 311.4 total Yards-Per-Game. Buffalo can be reckless with the football — they were second in the NFL with 27 turnovers last season. Quarterback Josh Allen threw 14 interceptions and fumbled the ball six times last year — so perhaps we will be on the side of a defensive touchdown in this game after being a defensive touchdown/special teams touchdown magnet in our plays since the Brian Branch’s interception return for a touchdown for the Detroit Lions off the hands of Kadarious Toney (one of his four drops) on Thursday night? Dare to dream! Allen still lacks a reliable second option in the passing game after wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Gabe Davis only had a 51.6% catch percentage rate last season — and he had a 30.3% success rate with contested passes last year which is a bad sign when confronting the two great cornerbacks the Jets have in Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed. The defense took a step back last season after defensive end Von Miller got injured. The Bills' pass rush remains a question.

FINAL TAKE: New York’s defense dominated Allen and the Buffalo offense when they played at MetLife with the Jets winning by a 20-17 score as a 10.5-point underdog. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 appearances on Monday Night Football. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Jets (482) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (480) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (479). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) comes off a 10-8-1 season after their 38-7 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Divisional playoffs.
 Dallas (0-0) kicks off their season coming off a 13-6 campaign after their 19-12 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York left a bad impression the last time they were on national television in that 31-point loss to the Eagles in the playoffs. When considering that they got outscored by -0.3 Points-Per-Game and outgained by -18.3 net Yards-Per-Game, it’s not a very hot take to suggest they were perhaps overrated after their playoff win the week before at Minnesota. But that is not enough of a reason to simply discount their ability to progress this season. They should be a better team on both sides of the ball in the second season under head coach Brian Daboll. Daniel Jones was in desperate need of help in the passing game — and the Giants signed tight end Darren Waller in free agency and drafted a deep threat in Tennessee wide receiver Jalin Hyatt. I also expect a leap in play from their defense under defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. Second-year linebacker Kayvan Thibodeaux looks poised for a breakout season in becoming one of the better pass rushers in the league. Nose tackle Dexter Lawrence is a load patrolling the middle of the defensive line. Their run defense was a problem last year after allowing their opponents to generate 144.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game, ranking 27th in the NFL — but signing defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson addresses that problem as he thrives in stopping the run. The Giants added rookies to their defensive backfield — and first-rounder Deonte Banks from Maryland is a great fit for Martindale’s system given his size and speed. Martindale loves to blitz — and that could be trouble for the Cowboys that have injury issues on their offensive line. Second-year left tackle Tyler Smith is doubtful with an ankle injury. Veteran right tackle Tyron Smith is questionable with his chronic hamstring issues. That spells trouble for what Dallas wants to do on offense. Tyler Smith was their first-round pick from Tulsa last year who replaced Tyron Smith at left tackle with his skills declining (along with being injured all the time). Moving Tyron Smith to left tackle may not be optimal — even if he can play tonight. Quarterback Dak Prescott has lost a step or two with his mobility so keeping a stable pocket is more important than ever for the Cowboys’ success on offense. As it is, Dallas looks to run the ball a bit more this year with head coach Mike McCarthy taking over the play-calling for the now-departed Kellen Moore. The new offensive coordinator is Brian Schottenheimer who is comfortable overseeing a run-first offense. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. New York has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the first half of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range — and the Giants have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with New York Giants (480) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (394) minus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (393). THE SITUATION: California (1-0) looks to build off their 58-21 victory at North Texas as a 5-point favorite last Saturday. Auburn (1-0) opened their season with a 59-14 win against Massachusetts as a 35.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal dominated the Mean Green by outgaining them by a 669 to 225 clip in yardage. This is a team that returned 17 starters from a group that settled for a 4-8 record last year. Cal lost five of their seven games decided by one scoring possession — so a few breaks going their way could have resulted in a bowl game for them head coach Justin Wilcox. He added 17 transfers in the offseason including seven former blue-chippers with the pressure on to get back to the postseason. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games at Memorial Stadium. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in September. Furthermore, the Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a win at home by 17 or more points. And while they outrushed the Minutemen by 152 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outrushing their last opponent by +125 or more yards. The Tigers generated 7.42 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after gaining 6.25 or more YPP in their last game. Hugh Freeze takes over the program this season that has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in September. Auburn has also lost and failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road openers to a new season.

FINAL TAKE: Cal has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games at home as an underdog. 8* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the California Golden Bears (394) minus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (393). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (360) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (359). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (0-1) looks to rebound from their 35-33 upset loss in double-overtime at Wyoming as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday. Oregon (1-0) began their season with an 81-7 victory against Portland State as a 48-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: A 78-minute delay to the start of the game in Laramie against the Cowboys did not help Texas Tech’s cause last week. The Red Raiders got inside Wyoming’s 40-yard line seven times in that game but only scored 20 points from those drives. They missed three field goals and outgained the Cowboys in yardage by a 433-351 margin but could not survive the second overtime. Is head coach Joey McGuire leading this program in the right direction — or was their 8-5 record last season simply the by-product of some overdue but temporary good fortune? The Red Raiders won three games in overtime to help them sweep all four of their games decided by one-scoring possession. After five straight losing seasons under head coaches Kliff Kingsbury and then Matt Wells, this program has had winning seasons in two straight years. McGuire has 17 starters and 15 sixth-year super seniors back from last year’s team that beat Ole Miss in the Texas Bowl by a 42-25 score. But can the talent level match the high-end rosters in the Big 12 conference? Getting a full season out of the often-injured quarterback Tyler Slough would go a long way. The fifth-year senior was 5-0 as a starter last year before missing the final four games due to injury. He has an 8-2 record as a starter for the Red Raiders after last week’s loss — but he did complete 31 of 47 passes for 338 yards with three touchdown passes. And the Texas Tech defense played well enough after holding Wyoming to just 4.1 Yards-Per-Play. The Red Raiders have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. They return home to Jones AT&T Stadium where they hold a big edge in front of their loud fans. They were 6-1 at home last year while covering the point spread in 5 of those games. They have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games in the first two weeks of the season. Oregon comes off a laugher against an FBS opponent — but the question remains: How close can head coach Dan Lanning get the Ducks’ defense to perform like his Georgia teams when he was their defensive coordinator from 2019-21? In his first year in Eugene, his defense ranked 74th and 70th in the FBS by allowing 27.4 PPG and 381.2 YPG. The deeper metrics were even more unkind with the Ducks’ defense ranking 99th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed and 108th in Opponent Finishing Drives Allowed. The pass rush generated only 18 sacks which was the lowest in school history. Their pass defense ranked 101st in the nation by allowing their opponents to average 256.4 passing YPG. There was a large gap between the physicality of the Ducks’ defense last year and what Lanning’s Georgia defenses brought to the table. But Oregon still outgained their Pac-12 opponents by +136 net YPG due to a dynamic offense that ranked 10th and 6th in the nation by scoring 38.8 PPG and generating 500.5 YPG. Fifth-year senior QB Bo Nix completed 71.9% of his passes while limiting his mistakes with only seven interceptions and taking just five sacks. But Nix only accrued 16 passes that were designed as “Big Time” throws last season in a dink-and-dunk passing game. Only 29% of Oregon’s passes last season were of more than ten air-yards last year — and that is a big reason why they ranked 128th in the nation in Pass Explosiveness.

FINAL TAKE: Oregon got into many shootouts last year — but their lack of explosiveness makes blowout victories unlikely especially when playing away from Autzen Stadium. The Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 road games when laying 3.5 to 7 points — and Shough will have a chip on his shoulder to face his former team before transferring to Lubbock. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Month with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (360) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (359). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (342) minus the points versus the Texas State Bobcats (341). THE SITUATION: UTSA (0-1) looks to rebound from their 17-14 upset loss at Houston as a 2-point favorite last Saturday. Texas State (1-0) comes off a 42-31 upset victory at Baylor as a 27-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS MINUS THE POINTS: UTSA outgained the Cougars last week by a 417 to 334 mark in yardage — but three interceptions from seventh-year senior Frank Harris in a disastrous span of five minutes in the third quarter that made the difference in this game. Now the Roadrunners return home where they have an 18-3 record straight-up under fourth-year head coach Jeff Taylor. UTSA has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 63.5-70 point range. This is a loaded team that might be the best squad representing the Group of Five who are playing their first season in the American Athletic Conference. Fifteen starters return from last year’s team that finished 11-3 including a Conference USA Championship Game before an 18-13 loss to Troy in Cure Bowl. The offense has eight starters back led by Harris under center. The defense has eight starters back and 11 players who played 300 snaps last season. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in September. Texas State comes off perhaps their biggest win in program history by beating a Power Five conference opponent for the very first time. But the Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after pulling off an upset win as a double-digit dog. Additionally, Texas State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss on the road as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win on the road. Upsetting Baylor was a heckuva way for 34-year-old head coach G.J. Kinne to make his debut as the leader of this program. The former Tulsa quarterback had great success as the head coach of Incarnate Word — and while Deion Sanders gets most of the attention for using the transfer portal, Kinne was also quite aggressive by bringing at least 26 transfer portal in the offseason to bolster a roster that had 11 starters returning from a team that finished 4-8. Texas State did get outgained by -88 net yards in the Sun Belt Conference last year. They were also outgained by the Bears last week by a 524 to 441 mark in yardage. Converting on all four of their fourth down attempts helped them steal that game — as did Baylor losing their starting quarterback Blake Shapen injury (and their backup committed two critical turnovers in the fourth quarter). The Bobcats stay on the road for a second week where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games with the Total set at 63 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: UTSA has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (342) minus the points versus the Texas State Bobcats (341). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (320) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (319). THE SITUATION: Baylor (0-1) looks to rebound from their 42-31 upset loss at home to Texas State as a 27-point favorite last Saturday. Utah (1-0) comes off a 24-11 win at home against Florida as a 5.5-point favorite back on August 31st.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: BAYLOR: Was Baylor’s winning the Big 12 Championship in 2021 a fluke? After taking a step back with a 6-7 record after losing their final four games last year after a 30-15 loss to Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl last season, this is a critical season in assessing the culture of this program in the fourth season under head coach Dave Aranda. The Bears finished with an 11-3 record in his first season before falling to 2-7 during the COVID-impacted 2020 campaign. They did outgain their Big 12 rivals by +24 YPG. Yet Aranda’s stamp should be on the defensive side of the ball after previously serving as the defensive coordinator at LSU — and there seems to be a disconnect between his schemes with the Tigers and the game plans now with the Bears. With 12 starters back including junior quarterback Blake Shapen, another down season would place Aranda’s tenure in jeopardy — and that makes their upset loss to the Bobcats last week even more disastrous. To compound matters, Shapen injured his MCL in that game which will keep him out for this game. Sophomore Sawyer Roberston gets the start under center — he is a former four-star recruit who transferred in from Mississippi State. He passed for 113 yards last week in helping the Bears generate 524 yards while averaging 6.89 Yards-Per-Play. Baylor has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after generating at least 6.75 YPP in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Bears have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset loss under Aranda. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Utah got outgained by the Gators by -76 net yards but still pulled the game out. The biggest question I had for this team in assessing them before the season was whether or not sixth-year senior quarterback Cameron Rising could regain his form after suffering a torn ACL in the Rose Bowl. He left the game with the score tied at 14-14 with Penn State — but the Nittany Lions outscored the Utes by a 21-7 margin the rest of the way for their 35-21 victory. Rising did not play last week and is doubtful to make his season debut in this one. While sophomore Bryson Barnes was solid last week, this will be his first career start in a hostile environment. The two-time reigning Pac-12 champions have a loaded roster once again with 16 starters back. The defense returns nine starters and the tenth-most net production in the country from a unit that ranked 26th in the nation by allowing only 21.4 Points-Per-Game and 334.1 total Yards-Per-Game. The Utes have 12 of the 17 defensive players who logged-in at least 200 snaps last year. But to hang with the dynamic offenses of the top-tier opponents, this team probably needs Rising at full strength. Baylor scored 32.2 Points-Per-Game last season — and they should put up their share of points against this Utes defense that ranked 104th in the nation last year by allowing 30 touchdowns in their opponent’s 44 trips inside the red zone. Asking Utah to win by more than a touchdown may be too much to ask when playing on the road — they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games the favored by seven points or less.

FINAL TAKE: Baylor has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog. 8* CFB Utah-Baylor ESPN Special with the Baylor Bears (320) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Nebraska Cornhuskers (317) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (318). THE SITUATION: Nebraska (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 13-10 loss at Minnesota as a 7.5-point underdog on August 31st. Colorado (1-0) began their season with a 45-42 upset victory at TCU as a 21-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CORNHUSKERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Buffaloes made an emphatic statement in the first game of the Prime Time era by shocking the football program that played in the National Championship Game last January. The Horned Frogs’ fast pace played right into the hands that head coach Deion Sanders wants with his collection of talent. But the question remains: Can Sanders’ massive transfer portal reset rebuild both lines simultaneously with all the influx of skill-position talent on both sides of the ball? Sanders brought with him several players from his Jackson State squad including his son, Shedeur Sanders, at quarterback and two-way cornerback/wide receiver Travis Hunter who was the number one recruit in the 2021 class — and both are now Heisman Trophy contenders after their performances last week. Hunter was spectacular on both sides of the ball. Sanders completed 38 of his 47 passes for 510 yards with four touchdown passes. But the Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 home games after passing for at least 325 yards in their last game. With at least 33 transfer players and another 19 freshmen signings, the Buffaloes have seen an 80% turnover in the roster from a team that finished 1-11 last year. After losing 21 of 26 games, the program can only go up under Sanders’ guidance. But the grunt work is in the trenches. Their offensive line has 44 career starts and is small for a Power Five program. The defensive line is dependent on transfers with no starters back and is also on the small side. Depth is also an issue — especially on the offensive and defensive lines. Now they play a team in the Cornhuskers who will game plan much differently. Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule is too savvy to try to simply go head-to-head with the Buffaloes in a high-paced scoring fest. Instead, the Cornhuskers will run the football to truly test the Colorado defensive line. The Buffaloes defense was very shaky last week as they allowed TCU to put up 541 total yards of offense. They did not register a sack or even one tackle for loss. The Horned Frogs ran for 262 yards and averaged 7.1 Yards-Per-Carry. Rhule will have Nebraska run the ball and attempt to control the time of possession. They did generate 6.1 YPC against the Golden Gophers last week. They got stopped inches from the goal line late in the first half before fourth-year quarterback Jeff Sims threw an interception in the end zone. Sims later fumbled the ball late in the game to cost his team one last chance for the victory. He was responsible for four turnovers — but the Cornhuskers have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games after committing four or more turnovers. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 14 points. Was Nebraska simply snakebit with bad luck under previous head coach Scott Frost — or was the continued descent of this proud program the product of the slow decline in talent on the roster? The Cornhuskers now have a 3-17 record in the last four seasons in games decided by one scoring possession. Frost deserves much of the blame for that ineptitude to pull out close games — and his coaching staff did not do a good job in developing NFL talent. They got outgained by 73 YPG in the Big Ten last season. But now Rhule is importing his culture from Temple and Baylor that did not succeed with the Carolina Panthers — and this is a program where legendary head coach Tom Osborne casts a long shadow. Recruiting is way down in Lincoln these days — and Rhule is attempting to win the transfer portal battles which was Frost’s strategy the last few seasons. Perhaps the NIL culture that Rhule is trying to establish with the alumni base is the appropriate response, but that is a long-term plan. In the meantime, Rhule has an opportunity to put his stamp on this program with a statement win against an old Big Eight rival riding a wave of national hype.

FINAL TAKE: Nebraska was a seven-point favorite in the look-ahead lines for this contest before Week One — so this is a definite buy-low opportunity with the betting public now in love with Colorado. The Cornhuskers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog — and the Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when laying up to three points. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Kickoff with the Nebraska Cornhuskers (317) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Illinois Fighting Illini (351) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (352). THE SITUATION: Illinois (1-0) opened their season with a 30-28 victory against Toledo as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Kansas (1-0) began their year with a 48-17 victory against Missouri State as a 32.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ILLINI PLUS THE POINTS: Illinois should build off their victory last week. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a win at home by three points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The biggest question I had for this team entering the year was how close the Fighting Illini can get to replicating the performance of their defense that led the nation by holding their opponents to 12.8 PPG and ranked third in the FBS by allowing only 273.5 YPG. Their defenses bent often against the Rockets but they did not break -- they limited them to two field goals on long drives in the first half that kept them in the game. Second-year head coach Bret Bielema has already made this program the new Wisconsin (especially with the sacrilege of the Badgers moving to an Air Raid offense this season). He lost four defensive backs who got drafted into the NFL — along with running back Chase Brown who led Power Five teams in rushing. Some red flags exist. After holding their first nine opponents to just 232 YPG, their last four opponents generated 367 YPG against them. It will be difficult to repeat their +15 net turnover margin which was the third-best mark in the FBS. But bringing Bielema’s smash-mouth football to Champagne improved the scoring by +4.1 PPG — and they outgained their conference opponents by +75 net YPG, the fourth-best mark in the Big Ten. All four of their conference losses were by one scoring possession — and ten All-Big performers return to the roster. Illinois has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road. How high is the ceiling for the Jayhawks after they snapped their 14-year bowl drought in a wild 55-53 loss to Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl? Third-year head coach Lance Leipold had ten starters back on offense along with over 90% of their production from that group ranked 20th in the nation by scoring 35.6 PPG. Junior quarterback Jalon Daniels ranked second in the nation in Total QBR despite missing four games with a separated shoulder. But can they stop anyone after ranking 126th in the nation by surrendering 469.4 YPG with their last four opponents scoring 43 PPG against them? Leipold is relying on the transfer portal to fill a defensive line that does not return any of their four starters. It is tough to take much from their 31-point victory against an FCS program. Kansas has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games after a win at home where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 contests in expected lower-scoring games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 range.

FINAL TAKE: Illinois has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. 8* CFB Illinois-Kansas ESPN2 Special with the Illinois Fighting Illini (351) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (352). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (452) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (451). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (0-0) returns to action as the reigning Super Bowl champions after their 38-35 victory against Philadelphia in the Super Bowl. Detroit (0-0) comes off a 9-8 campaign last year where they missed the playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: The Lions were a reliable underdog against the spread last year. But now the hype train for the Detroit Lions has not been this loud in decades — and while they should contend for the NFC North title, I do not think the available evidence matches the raised expectations for this franchise that has not won a playoff game since 1991. I’m simply not impressed with their final Sunday night victory in Lambeau Field against Green Bay that thwarted the Packers' playoff aspirations despite their playoff hopes being eliminated earlier in the day. I think it is one of the easiest things to do in competitive events to find motivation to screw your rivals — especially when absolved from the pressure of failing to meet expectations. Good for the Lions that day! But the seeds of their downfall may have been exposed even in that game (more on that in my Final Take). And how impressive was that victory against the Packers, exactly? If the Aaron Rodgers Truthers who now drive the NY Jets Hype Train and the Rodgers Haters have one thing in common, it is this: that Green Bay team last season was a mess. Either Rodgers' bad season was a result of his playing with a broken hand or the product of Father Time’s impact on his skill set — but he was bad. There also is a narrative that the Lions' defense improved in the second half of the season. First of all, Detroit’s defense was playing at a historically bad rate through October when each of their opponents scored at least 24 points — so better numbers in the second half may have simply been the law of averages kicking in (especially when four games against Chicago and the broken Packers appear on the docket). Secondly, the most important game of the Lions' entire season was in Week 15 when they played at Carolina with control of their playoff fate on the line with a 7-7 record. In that game against the Sam Darnold-led Panthers under interim head coach Steve Wilks, Detroit lost by a 37-23 score with the “improved” Lions defense surrendering 570 total yards. Darnold looked like he was back at USC throwing against the RichRod Arizona defense while the Panthers rushed for 320 yards (not a typo). Detroit finished the season last in the NFL in yardage allowed — ranking 29th in run defense and 30th in pass defense. They did upgrade that unit in the offseason — but free-agent cornerback Emmanuel Moseley is out tonight with a knee injury. The hope is that the run defense will improve because of their rookie class — but I’m not sure those rookies suddenly make this group even middle of the road. Perhaps the dynamic Detroit offense will keep them competitive tonight? Jared Goff was very effective in the second half of the season once he stopped throwing interceptions. But Goff was at his at home all season including high-profile losses on Thanksgiving to Buffalo and in a shootout (loss) in September to Philadelphia (before that team’s continued in-season improvement). At home, the Lions scored 33 Points-Per-Game with Goff averaging 274 passing Yards-Per-Game with 23 touchdown passes, only three interceptions, and a QBR of 110. But on the road, Detroit’s scoring dropped to 19 PPG with Goff averaging 245 passing YPG with a mere four touchdown passes, four interceptions, and a QBR of 87. With tight end T.J. Hockensen traded to Minnesota and replaced by a rookie and second-year wideout Jameson Williams suspended for the first six games, who is Goff’s (reliable) second option in the passing game? The Lions remain a team that got outgained in yardage last season. Regarding Kansas City, I am assuming that tight end Travis Kelce will not play (although even better if he does — I give it a one out of three chance that he can go despite his bruised knee). The triumph of this Chiefs team last season was predicated on Patrick Mahomes' development as a quarterback in taking what the defense gave him in his first season playing without Tyreke Hill. The mission this offseason has been to nurture the development of wide receivers Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Rashee Rice into the passing attack to better complement Kelce. Even if Kelce does not play, head coach Andy Reid will scheme players open against the Lions defense Darnold picked apart last December — and Mahomes has more than demonstrated the discipline to simply find open receivers. And don’t be surprised if Reid’s game plan is to simply run over this porous Lions defensive line that the Panthers mauled with Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. On defense, the Chiefs will miss the departed Frank Clark which makes the Chris Jones holdout more urgent. But don’t forget that this defense thrived in the second half of the season due to the emergence of rookie defensive backs Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, Bryan Cook, and Joshua Williams who all played significant roles in their playoff run. Second-year defensive end George Karlaftis is expected to make a big jump in his pass-rushing skills this season. Kansas City’s defense was underrated when playing at home last season as they held their regular season guests to just 19.4 PPG and 325.5 total YPG. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against non-conference opponents. Additionally, Mahomes has won all five of his home openers in his career with 19 touchdown passes and no interceptions in those games.

FINAL TAKE: Lions head coach Dan Campbell has been notoriously aggressive with his play-calling in his first two seasons. Detroit leads the NFL in fourth down attempts during his tenure — and they have successfully converted seven of their eight fake punts in his tenure. They had the luxury of being aggressive in that Sunday night game against the Packers with nothing on the line for them except the joy of playing the role of the spoiler. Now expectations have arrived for this team — and Campbell — and that aggressiveness can quickly become reckless (ask LA Chargers fans with Brandon Staley). I recall an ill-advised fourth down attempt inside the Lions’ 30-yard line in his rookie season in the salad days when he was trying to avoid a winless season. A mistake like that at Arrowhead Stadium against Mahomes would be Game (and point spread cover) Over. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month is with the Kansas City Chiefs (452) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (236) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (235). THE SITUATION: Duke (0-0) returns 18 starters from their team that finished 9-4 last season after their 30-13 victory against Central Florida in the Military Bowl. Clemson (0-0) has 15 starters back from their group that had an 11-3 record after losing to Tennessee by a 31-14 score in the Orange Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS PLUS THE POINTS: After making the college football playoffs in six straight years, Clemson has lost three games in each of the last two seasons. Was this program temporarily propped up by two great coordinators while getting lucky with two generational talents at quarterback in Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence? Both offensive coordinator Tony Elliott and defensive coordinator Brent Venables left the program after the 2021-22 season to become head coaches elsewhere. Head coach Dabo Swinney seems to be suggesting the problem in the last two seasons has been D.J. Uiagelelei who took over at quarterback after Lawrence went to the NFL two years ago. But Uiagelelei looked pretty, pretty, pretty good for his new team yesterday as he completed 20 of 25 passes for 239 yards with five touchdowns (three in the air, two on the ground) and no interceptions in Oregon State’s 42-17 victory against San Jose State. Swinney turned to another blue-chip recruit at quarterback at the end of the season in freshman Case Klubnik — and while he played well in the 39-10 victory against North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game, he was shaky in the Orange Bowl against a suspect Volunteers defense by throwing two interceptions and failing to execute on numerous occasions in the red zone. Swinney brought in Garrett Riley to implement the Air Raid offense he installed as the offensive coordinator for TCU last year. And while Clemson has a great running back in Will Shipley, there may not be the high-quality wide receivers on the roster that are difference makers in the passing attack. The defense ranked 27th in the nation by allowing 334.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is good but not quite at the elite numbers this program has consistently put up in the past. They allowed 231.7 passing YPG last season, ranking 75th in the nation. Has the identity of the defense slipped with Venables' departure to Oklahoma? The Tigers replace four All-ACC players on defense who moved on to the NFL. Now this team opens on the road against a conference opponent in a nationally-televised game against a veteran team with a great defensive-minded head coach. As it is, Clemson has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when laying 10.5 to 21 points. they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 range. Duke’s accomplishments last season need to be taken with a grain of salt. They only played four teams with a winning record — and just two of their nine victories were against FBS programs with a winning record. And while their +16 net turnover margin helped them out tremendously, the Regression Gods are likely to make their presence known this year with their actual net turnover rate coming closer to their expected net turnover rate again. But all four of the Blue Devils' losses were by eight points or less. They have a future NFLer at quarterback in junior Riley Leonard who passed for 2967 yards last year and added 699 yards on the ground. He has his three starting wide receivers and his starting tight end back from last year. And while I do not expect this team to enjoy another +16 net turnover margin, forcing turnovers is a skill — and Duke had 10 interceptions and 16 fumble recoveries for head coach Mike Elko. The former Texas A&M and Notre Dame defensive coordinator will have a good scheme in place for the Air Raid tonight — and Clemson may get off to a rocky start with this new offense going against hostile competition for the first time. The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 range.

FINAL TAKE: Clemson has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in September. Duke has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the first month of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight home games in the first half of the season. The home team has covered the point spread in 11 of the last 16 meetings between these two teams. 10* CFB Clemson-Duke ESPN Special with the Duke Blue Devils (236) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (235). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (232) plus the points versus the Louisiana State Tigers (231). THE SITUATION: Florida State (0-0) returns 17 starters from their team that finished 10-3 after a 35-32 victory against Oklahoma in the Cheez-It Bowl. LSU (0-0) has 15 starters back from their group that finished 10-4 after a 63-7 victory against Purdue in the Citrus Bowl. This game is being played on a neutral field at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES PLUS THE POINTS: I consider LSU to be a bit overvalued right now coming off a fortunate opening season under head coach Brian Kelly. The Tigers blew out a Boilermakers team in their bowl game that was severely undermanned after head coach Jeff Brohm left the program for Louisville and players like their quarterback Aidan O’Connell sat the game out. Despite posting a 6-2 record in SEC play that was headlined by a signature victory against Alabama, LSU got outgained by -5.0 Yards-Per-Game against conference opponents. They benefited from +2 net close wins decided by one scoring possession — so they were close to being an 8-6 team which correlates with their net yardage numbers. The Tigers had a big play problem on both sides of the ball. While ranking sixth in overall Success Rate on offense, they fell to 101st in Marginal Explosiveness. On defense, LSU ranked 20th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed but fell to 50th in Opponent Marginal Explosiveness Allowed. Their defense returns only nine of the 18 players who logged in at least 200 snaps — and they lost seven defensive backs who got playing time last season. Kelly tried to fortify the back end with transfers — and perhaps he succeeded in upgrading the talent — but depth remains a problem. Talented defensive tackle Mason Smith is out for tonight’s game due to a suspension for NCAA infractions. Florida State led the ACC by outgaining their opponents by +164.6 net YPG. Head coach Mike Norvell has 11 All-ACC players back from a group that won their first six games. The defense returns six of the top seven tacklers that ranked 14th in the nation by holding their opponents to 321.8 total YPG. Norvell is also hitting the transfer portal well with 11 new players coming into the program — but I like the way he is integrating these players with the foundation of his team. Norvell committed to getting younger players on the field in the first three years with the program — and those juniors and seniors now form the core of this team. I give the Seminoles the edge at quarterback as well. Jordan Travis was initially a run-first dual-threat option under center who has made great strides in improving his passing game. He passed for 3214 yards last year while being graded the top offensive player in the ACC by Pro Football Focus. Of particular note is his decision-making as he only had five interceptions with just 1.9% of his snaps under center resulted in a turnover-worthy play. I like LSU’s Jayden Daniels — but he does not produce as many big plays as  Travis. Daniels averaged 7.51 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game which falls short of Travis’ 9.10 YPA mark.

FINAL TAKE: Florida State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral field where they were an underdog getting up to three points. LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in the first two weeks of a new season. 10* CFB LSU-FSU ABC-TV Special with the Florida State Seminoles (232) plus the points versus the Louisiana State Tigers (231). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be paling the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (211) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (212). THE SITUATION: UTSA (0-0) has 16 starters back from their team that finished 11-3 after their 18-12 loss to Troy in the Cure Bowl. Houston (0-0) has 12 starters return from their group that finished 8-5 after a 23-16 victory against Louisiana-Lafayette in the Independence Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS MINUS THE POINTS: UTSA has quarterback Frank Harris back for a seventh season after he led the team to the Conference USA championship with a 48-27 victory against North Texas in the championship game. He was named to the first team All-Conference USA team after passing for 4063 yards with 32 touchdown passes — and he added another 602 rushing yards on the ground. The veteran ran an offense that has eight starters back from a group that ranked 13th in the nation by scoring 36.8 Points-Per-Game and 12th in the nation by generating 476.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Harris lost his top target in Zakhari Franklin who transferred from the program after spring practice — but he still has four of his top five targets back from last season including Joshua Cephus who caught 87 balls last year while being named to the All-Conference USA second team. The defense returns 11 starters and 11 players who logged in at least 300 snaps from a unit that ranked 10th in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed, 17th in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate, and 14th in Havoc Rate. With the football program moving to the American Athletic Conference, the Roadrunners have a lot to prove this season as they put their stamp on their legacies — and it can begin with a signature victory against a Cougars team that has moved to the Big 12. UTSA is comfortable playing in hostile environments as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as the favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in September. Houston is in a bit of rebuilding mode after losing four-year starting quarterback Clayton Thune and wide receiver Tank Dell. Thune threw for over 4000 yards last year while Dell caught 109 balls including 17 for touchdowns. Fifth-year head coach Dana Holgorsen is relying on Texas Tech transfer Donovan Smith to run the offense. While the junior has eight career starts, he only averaged 6.8 Yards-Per-Attempt in his four starts last season while committing 11 turnover-worthy plays to just six “Big Time” throws. Holgorsen was caught off guard when running back Alton McCaskill IV decided to transfer to Colorado. The Cougars lost eight of their top nine tacklers from a defense that ranked 111th in the nation by allowing 32.2 PPG and 104th in the nation by giving up 421.4 YPG. Holgorsen only has one starter back in the back seven from a unit that gave up 32 or more points seven times. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog under Holgorsen. Additionally, Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: UTSA will have revenge on their mind after losing at home to the Cougars by a 37-35 score in triple overtime back on September 3rd last season. The Roadrunners lost that game despite outgaining Houston by a 441-335 margin in yards. UTSA has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games under head coach Jeff Traylor when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 20* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (211) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (212). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (194) plus the points versus Washington State (193). THE SITUATION: Colorado State (0-0) returns 15 starters from its team that finished 3-9 last season. Washington State (0-0) has 12 starters back from their group that had a 7-6 record last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Head coach Jay Norvell struggled in his first season at Colorado State with scholarship players way down after he cleaned house — but his teaching paid off in the second half of the season as they outgained their last four opponents by +76 net Yards-Per-Game. The Rams should be much better in his second year with the program. The biggest problem last season was their offensive line which was last in the FBS by allowing 4.92 sacks per game. Norvell has overwhelmed that room with seven transfer players and loads of freshmen to instill competition in that group. The defense returns eight starters from a group that allowed 26.9 Points-Per-Game and 355.0 YPG — but those numbers improved against Mountain West competition as they held their conference rivals to just 20 PPG and 325 YPG. Norvell’s teams have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home as an underdog. Washington State seems to be losing in the transfer portal under head coach Jake Dickert in his third full season with the program. Bringing in Cameron Ward from Incarnate Word seemed to offer exciting opportunities last season — but he only averaged 10.1 Yards-Per-Completion in a passing attack that was not vertical. He remains very much a work in progress as he lacks precision on his intermediate and deep passes. The Cougars replace his top four targets from last season. Dickert hired his third defensive coordinator in three seasons after the team ranked 85th in the nation in total defense by allowing 402.3 YPG. They lost four of their top six tacklers from that group including Daiyan Henley who moved on to the NFL. The linebacker group was devastated by departures in the transfer portal — and Dickert resorted to finding retreads to fill the gaps of a unit that does not have a returning starter. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against non-conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in the opening month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Norvell will be able to use his team’s 38-7 loss on the road to the Cougars last year as motivation for his group this season. That game was played on September 17th before Norvell was able to produce significant improvement from his players. Expect a close game in this rematch. 8* CFB Big Dog Surprise with the Colorado State Rams (194) plus the points versus Washington State (193). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (208) minus the points versus the South Florida Bulls (207). THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (0-0) return 11 starters from their team that finished 9-5 last season after their 44-23 victory against South Alabama in the New Orleans Bowl. South Florida (0-0) has 13 starters back from a 1-11 squad last season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky won six of their last eight games to conclude a season that could have been much better with a few more breaks going their way. Red zone issues on both sides of the ball held the Hilltoppers back and betrayed their +136 net Yards-Per-Game mark against conference play which led all teams in Conference USA. In his fifth season at Western Kentucky, head coach Tyson Helton has been aggressive in the transfer portal and appears to be one of the few non-Power Five conference teams that are winning in the transfer window wars. His pro-style Air Raid offense is appealing to players — and he has a great quarterback in senior Austin Reed who chose to stay with the program for his final season after flirting with the idea of transferring himself. He led the FBS with 4746 passing yards last year — and he threw 40 touchdown passes. His top receiver Malachi Corley returns after being named to the first team All-Conference USA team with 101 catches for 1295 receiving yards. Helton brought in Power Five transfers Ze’Vian capers from Auburn, Jimmy Holiday from Tennessee, and Blue Smith from Cincinnati to offer more weapons for Reed. Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when laying 10.5 to 21 points. When the Hilltoppers get into trouble, it is when they face opponents that can go toe-to-toe with their offense. In their last five losses last year, the Hilltoppers gave up 36 Points-Per-Game. South Florida is not likely to approach that threshold with only four starters back on offense. The Bulls have only beaten one FBS opponent in their last 34 opportunities going back to 2019. While going winless in their eight conference games last season, American Athletic Conference opponents outgained them by -116 YPG. Former Tennessee offensive coordinator Alex Golesh takes over the program for Jeff Scott — and while he has former Baylor transfer Gerry Bohanon at quarterback, most of the skill position players from last season transferred out of the program. Nine starters return on defense — but this was a group that ranked 130th in the nation by allowing 516.6 YPG after giving up 558 YPG in their last six games. It will be a long rebuild for Golesh at a program that has won only four games in their last 33 contests. South Florida has also lost 18 games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against non-conference opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in the opening month of the season — and the Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 6 straight games in September. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (208) minus the points versus the South Florida Bulls (207). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (173) plus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (174). THE SITUATION : Northern Illinois (0-0) has 15 starters back from their team that finished 3-9 last season. Boston College (0-0) has 15 starters back as well from their 3-9 team from 2022.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Northern Illinois is two years removed from winning the Mid-American Conference championship. Expectations were high last season with 18 starters back from that group — but the Huskies were ravaged by injuries last year. No players on offense started all 12 games. They endured five net upsets last year. They lost four games by one scoring possession. Despite a 2-6 record in conference play, they were only outgained by -2.0 Yards-Per-Game against MAC opponents. Head coach Thomas Hammock does get Rocky Lombardi back at quarterback after injuries kept him out of eight games last season. Lombardi led the team to that MAC title two years ago — and he is backed by an offensive line that returns all five starters. The Huskies' defense should be improved with multiple starters back at each level including two All-Conference performers on the defensive line. Northern Illinois has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games an underdog with Hammock as their head coach. Boston College moves on from senior quarterback Phil Jurkovec who transferred to Pittsburgh. Fourth-year head coach Jeff Hafley turns to Emmett Morehead at quarterback who took over late in the season — but he will not have wider receiver Zay Flowers as his top target after he was drafted in the first round of the NFL draft. Hafley is on the hot seat after the Eagles got outgained by -81.6 net YPG in ACC play last season. He has trapped the program into relying on transfers to fill roster holes after his attention to detail in high school recruiting waned. After some early success in the transfer portal, Boston College now finds itself taking one step forward after two steps back in the transfer window wars. Hafley lost defensive coordinator Tem Lukabu to the Carolina Panthers — and he changed offensive coordinators for the third time in three seasons. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when favored under Hafley.

FINAL TAKE: Boston College has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in the first month of the season — and Northern Illinois has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against non-conference opponents. 8* CFB Saturday Afternoon Kickoff with the Northern Illinois Huskies (173) plus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (174). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (156) plus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (155). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (0-1) looks to rebound from their 35-28 loss at Vanderbilt as a 17-point underdog on Saturday. Stanford (0-0) returns six starters from their group that finished 3-9 last season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Hawai’i has the significant edge of already having a game under their belt — and they will be confident after arguably outplaying the Commodores in their house last week. The Rainbow Warrior outgained Vanderbilt by +94 net yards but suffered a -2 net turnover margin and gave up a 97-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss on the road. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games. The last time they hosted a Pac-12 team was in 2010 when they upset Arizona and narrowly lost to Oregon State by a field goal. Second-year head coach Timmy Chang’s Run-and-Shoot offense looked good last week with junior quarterback Brayden Schager completing 27 of 35 passes for 351 yards with two touchdown passes. Chang is rebuilding a proud program that hit rock bottom when they could not field a team for the 2021 Hawai’i Bowl in the waning days of the train wreck that was the Todd Graham era. He inherited a program that required a massive rebuild undertaking after ranking second-to-last in FBS teams returning production. Chang has stopped the bleeding, but rebuilding the recruiting connections and surviving the transfer portal remain long-term projects. What are the realistic expectations for Troy Taylor taking over a Stanford Cardinal program after 16 seasons where their head coach was Jim Harbaugh or David Shaw? Except for the 2020 COVID season, the team had three straight losing seasons under Shaw, which was losing steam after his dozen years as the head coach. But does Shaw and his coaching staff deserve the brunt of that blame — or is it just increasingly difficult to enjoy success at an academic powerhouse like Stanford in the ever-evolving college football landscape? Taylor is considered an offensive wizard with his stretch Air Raid schemes after previously serving as the offensive coordinator at Eastern Washington and Utah before taking the head coaching job at Sacramento State. But the Cardinal are never going to play the transfer portal heavy — and they return only six starters from last year’s group that finished 3-9. Stanford got outgained by -128 Yards-Per-Game in Pac-12 play. The Cardinal have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog including in their touchdown loss to Vanderbilt last week. 8* CFB Friday Late Show Bailout with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (156) plus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Central Michigan Chippewas (151) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (152). THE SITUATION: Central Michigan (0-0) returns 13 starters from a team that finished 4-8 last season. Michigan State (0-0) has 13 starters back from their team that was 5-7 last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIPPEWAS PLUS THE POINTS: The Spartans thrived by using the transfer portal in their 11-2 season two years ago — but are they now losing in the transfer window? The concern about relying on transfer players as opposed to original recruits who are brought up in the system is that the short-term fix may sacrifice the value of culture. Fourth-year head coach Mel Tucker watched his starting quarterback Payton Thorne and his top wide receiver Keon Coleman transfer out of the program after spring practice. The culture that is being nurtured in East Lansing has to be questioned under the leadership of the guy who spurned Colorado in the February after his first season there — and who was able to coax the Michigan State administration to grant him a 10-year, $95 million contract after that 11-2 campaign in 2021. Tucker brought in another 15 transfers this season, but these may simply be retreads of players who failed to succeed at other programs. Tucker only has a 23-21 record as a head coach — take away the ’21 season (and striking gold with the Wake Forest running back Kenneth Walker III in the transfer portal) and his Spartans are just 7-12.  And by the way, his team started a riot in the tunnel against Michigan players after their 29-7 loss last October. Culture … and now Tucker is playing games by not naming his starting quarterback for tonight’s game. Michigan State will likely deploy junior Noah Kim and/or sophomore Katin Houser under center tonight. Kim was Thorne’s backup last year and got into four games. Houser is a former four-star recruit. Neither has much experience. The Spartans have seven starters back from a defense that ranked 100th in the FBS by allowing 416.5 Yards-Per-Game. Michigan State finished 12th in the Big Ten by getting outgained by -109 YPG — and it is not clear at all the roster has not taken a step or two back this year. Central Michigan was a disappointing 4-8 season last year. Was that record a fluke or a harbinger of a slide in the Chippewas program? This team finished 9-4 in 2021 — and they had a 26-13 record in the first three seasons under head coach Jim McElwain before the dip last year. The Chippewas were only outgained by -7.1 YPG but suffered three upset losses while ranking second in the FBS with a -18 net turnover margin. Nine starters return on defense from a group whose 11 of 18 players who were on the field for 150 or more snaps were freshmen or sophomores. But McElwain has questions at quarterback and seems to lack playmakers on offense. But McElwain has an inventive offensive mind who served as Nick Saban’s offensive coordinator at Alabama from 2008-2011 -- and it was his success there that got him head coaching jobs at Colorado State and then Florida. His teams have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road as an underdog — and his teams have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against Power Five teams. Central Michigan has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road openers to a new season.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played in 2018 when Michigan State held a 31-3 lead before hanging on to a 31-20 victory as a four-touchdown favorite. The Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games when laying 10.5 to 14 points. Central Michigan would love to pull an upset against in an in-state rivalry game they care more about than Sparty. The Chippewas have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in non-conference play. 10* CFB Central Michigan-Michigan State FS1-TV Special with the Central Michigan Chippewas (151) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (148) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (147). THE SITUATION: Utah (0-0) returns 16 starters from the team that finished 10-4 after their 35-21 loss to Penn State in the Rose Bowl. Florida (0-0) sees 11 starters back from their 6-7 team that lost to Oregon State by a 30-3 score in the Las Vegas Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: Utah will be without sixth-year senior quarterback Cameron Rising for this game as he continues to recover from the torn ACL he suffered in the Rose Bowl. With redshirt freshman Brandon Rose also nursing an injury, head coach Kyle Whittingham likely turns to sophomore Bryson Barnes as his starting quarterback tonight. Barnes was solid in a start last season against Washington State. He completed 17 of 27 passes for 175 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions in leading the Utes to a 21-17 victory. He also rushed for 51 yards on eight carries. Expect a similar performance in this opener with offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig not asking the sophomore to do too much with his arm. Utah will want to impose their will with the physical style of play that has led them to two straight Pac-12 titles. They return three starters on an offensive line that has depth. They have a 226-pound bruising sophomore running back in Ja’Quinden Jackson who rushed for 531 yards and 6.8 Yards-Per-Carry last season. The defense returns nine starters and the tenth most net production in the country from a unit that ranked 26th in the nation by allowing only 21.4 Points-Per-Game and 334.1 total Yards-Per-Game. The Utes have 12 of the 17 defensive players who logged-in at least 200 snaps last year. Utah has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in August — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games against teams currently in the SEC. Florida finished their season on a three-game losing streak in the first year under head coach Billy Napier. They lost several players to the NFL including quarterback Anthony Richardson. Napier brought in senior Graham Mertz from Wisconsin to be his starting quarterback. Mertz was never very impressive for the Badgers — he struggled with pocket presence and precision with his passing. The reports were that he was shaky in the spring — and he is playing behind an offensive line that lost four starters to either the NFL or the transfer portal. The wide receiving unit lost three of their top four players from last season. The Gators’ offense will likely lean on their running back duo of Montrell Johnson, Sr. and Trevor Etienne — but Utah returns three starters and plenty of depth from a defensive line that helped them rank 17th in the FBS by holding their opponents to just 111.4 rushing YPG. Napier has a significant rebuilding assignment at a program that took some steps back in recruiting in the five seasons under their previous head coach Dan Mullen. The talent on defense has not been the same for years. Florida ranked 96th in the nation by allowing 411.0 total YPG — and they allowed 30 or more points in six of their losses. They lost their top five tacklers from last season as well. The Gators have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against non-conference opponents. And in Napier’s last 8 games when his team was the underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points, they failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: Utah has won 19 straight games at home at Rice-Eccles Stadium when playing in front of crowds over the last three seasons. They have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games when favored. 10* CFB Florida-Utah ESPN Special with the Utah Utes (148) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (147). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (311) plus the points versus the Vanderbilt Commodores (312). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (0-0) returns 14 starters from the team that finished 3-10 last season. Vanderbilt (0-0) has 15 starters back from their team that finished 5-7.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: The Hawai’i faithful hope that embracing the traditions of past glory help second-year head coach Timmy Chang elevate the Rainbow Warriors into contenders to reach bowl games once again. The offense showed signs of life when they embraced Run-and-Shoot principles midseason. But has the Run-and-Shoot been exposed as an offensive scheme with structural weaknesses since the days of the early 2000s when Chang was the team’s quarterback for head coach June Jones? Schemes cannot replace talent — and Chang is rebuilding a proud program that hit rock bottom when they could not field a team for the 2021 Hawai’i Bowl in the waning days of the train wreck that was the Todd Graham era. Chang inherited a program that required a massive rebuild undertaking after ranking second-to-last in FBS teams returning production. Chang has stopped the bleeding — and has begun to use the transfer portal to upgrade the roster. Hawai’i won two of their three games after the shift to the Run-and-Shoot last season. Four of their final six losses were decided by one-scoring possession — so they were much more competitive in their games in the second half of the season. The Rainbow Warriors have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as a double-digit underdog. Vanderbilt hopes that their teaching and coaching player development overcome the hits the Commodores are absorbing in the transfer portal. Head coach Clark Lea has lost 12 players in the transfer window to fellow Power-5 programs in the last two seasons. Vandy has high hopes for sophomore A.J. Swann as a potential rising star at quarterback after winning the job four games into the season last year. But while he had only two interceptions last season, he still committed 13 turnover-worthy plays in just 198 pass attempts — so he may be a Turnover Machine waiting to happen. The Commodores' defense allowed 36.0 Points-Per-Game last season, ranking 124th in the nation — and the 6.8 Yards-Per-Play they allowed was the third-highest mark in the FBS. Vanderbilt has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home with the Total set in the 49.5-56 range.

FINAL TAKE: Hawai’i will be looking to avenge a 63-10 loss at home to the Commodores in the opening game of their season last year. Chang has overseen significant growth in the year since his opening game as the Rainbow Warriors' head coach — and he will be using this rematch as a benchmark game for his program. Expect this one to be closer than the August 27th encounter last season. 8* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (311) plus the points versus the Vanderbilt Commodores (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 12th, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (101) plus the point(s) versus the Philadelphia Eagles (102) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (16-3) won their seventh straight game — and 12th in their last 13 contests — with their 23-20 victory against Cincinnati as a 2-point favorite on January 29th. Philadelphia (16-3) is on a three-game winning streak after their 31-7 victory against San Francisco as a 2.5-point favorite earlier on that Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINT(S): I think Philadelphia is a good but not great team. I just cannot overcome their soft schedule and the fortunate turn of events they have enjoyed all season. The fact that their victory over the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game represents the best win on their resume — despite San Francisco lacking a player who could throw a credible forward pass in the second half of that game. Or was their mid-October victory against Dallas with Cooper Rush under center for the injured Dak Prescott? Trevor Lawrence was probably the best quarterback they beat all year — but that was on the first Sunday in October before the second-year pro blossomed in the second half of the season. Or was the best QB they beat Aaron Rodgers and a Packers’ team that lost at home to Detroit the final Sunday night of the regular season to fail to make the playoffs? It was not Daniel Jones who they beat in the opening round of the playoffs. Philly beat the Giants three times and they beat Minnesota — and that exhausts the list of their six wins against teams who made the playoffs. I know the Eagles have a great offensive line — so do the Lions. I know there are some sweet run blocks against the Niners' good defensive line from the NFC Championship Game — but I am not going to get too excited about those plays considering the fading morale of that 49ers team. By the way, Philly only averaged 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry against San Francisco. And despite their improved run defense after acquiring Ndamukong Sun and Linvale Joseph in mid-November, they still ranked 15th against the run in the second half of the season according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. I simply think the Eagles are a year away from learning how to beat great teams. I like Jalen Hurts — but I don’t love him yet to outduel elite quarterbacks in the fourth quarter. I don’t think head coach Nick Sirianni is ready to outwit Hall of Fame coaches on the other side of the field. In some ways, getting gifted the fortunate luck of Brock Purdy’s elbow injury early in that game may have given this team a false sense of confidence. True confidence would come from beating an outstanding team in the fourth quarter. As it is, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 21 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning three or more games in a row. And while they scored 69 points in their two playoff games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games. This is Philly’s first road game since December 24th. The Eagles have played four straight Unders in a row while outgaining their two playoff opponents by at least +105 net yards. But Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after playing at least two straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after outgaining their last two opponents by +100 or more yards. Kansas City is playing in its third Super Bowl in the last four seasons. They have the best quarterback in the league Patrick Mahomes. They have a Hall of Fame head coach in Andy Reid with two weeks to prepare for this game — and his teams have covered the point spread in 20 of their 33 games in his career when he has two more weeks to prepare. I worried about Mahomes’ right ankle against the Bengals — but still concluded to back the Chiefs in that game. With two weeks to rest and continue the healing, Mahomes should be in even better shape than was against the excellent Cincinnati defense. He completed 29 of 43 passes for 326 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions in the AFC Championship Game despite the injury and then the loss of three wide receivers that made a significant impact on their ability to pass the ball. Reid does not expect Mecole Hardman to be able to play in the Super Bowl — but both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney are expected to be able to play despite missing practice time in preparation for the game. This is a battle-tested team that won their two playoff games by ten combined points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning their last two games at home by seven points or less. Mahomes has passed the test he faced this season if he could still maintain his productivity without Tyreek Hill. He has improved in taking what the defense gives him in the passing game. The Chiefs also have a running back in rookie Isaih Pacheco who can burn defenses that do not put enough players in the box. Since Week 10, Pacheco’s 728 rushing yards (before the AFC Championship Game) were the third most in the NFL. And the Kansas City defense is better than their season-long statistics suggest as this group continues to improve, as usual, under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Led by Chris Jones, the Chiefs sacked Joe Burrow five times. They have held their last three opponents to just 17.7 Points-Per-Game and 312.3 total Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams from the NFC — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. The Chiefs are outscoring their opponents by +7.2 PPG — and the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games in the second half of the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (101) plus the point(s) versus the Philadelphia Eagles (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (324) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (323). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (15-3) has won six straight games after their 27-20 win against Jacksonville as a 10-point favorite last Saturday. Cincinnati (14-4) has won ten straight games after a 27-10 upset win at Buffalo as a 6-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINT(S): The major uncertainty for this game regards how effective Patrick Mahomes will be on his gimpy ankle. Even if he is impaired, I still think Kansas City finds a way to get it done tonight. Mahomes still completed 23 of 30 passes for 195 yards with two touchdown passes last week despite the injury. And in 2019 with an ankle that head coach Andy Reid described as worse than what he is dealing with now, Mahomes threw for 443 yards with four touchdown passes. Because Mahomes is so unconventional in how he can deliver the football, he has ways to bypass the pain he may have in his right plant foot. The doctors will have it heavily taped up. Furthermore, after losing the Super Bowl to Tampa Bay two years ago when he was dealing with an ankle then, Mahomes has spent the last two years in training, nutrition, and practice preparing for addressing a moment like this. So has Andy Reid — and my investment in the Chiefs tonight is ultimately my endorsement of him. The loss to the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game last year was the defining moment of Kansas City’s season — and the entire offseason was his preparation for this moment (much more than their earlier meeting on December 4th). The Chiefs have now lost three games in a row to Cincinnati — but they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games under Reid when avenging a loss by seven points or less. Reid’s teams in his career have also covered the point spread in 36 of their 56 opportunities for revenge. This game is the culmination of the team’s need to evolve in the post-Tyreek Hill world. Mahomes perhaps became too reliant on the dopamine hit that would come from going for the big play with Hill (or Travis Kelce) — and Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has taken advantage of that. But Mahomes has continued to improve — and he did a great job of simply taking what the defense gave him. The ankle will probably limit his mobility — but Mahomes has demonstrated he can thrive in “only” being a pocket passer this season. From the pocket this year, Mahomes has completed 391 of 552 passes for 4598 yards with 34 touchdown passes, only nine interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 109.6. Anarumo’s adjustment in the December meeting between these teams was to do everything he could to take away Kelce from the offense — he caught only four balls for 56 yards in that game. But Mahomes has gotten more comfortable leaning on J.J. Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, and running back Jerick McKinnon in the passing game — and this showdown may have been what Reid had in mind where they traded for Kadarius Toney who may be the ace in the hole tonight. And don’t be surprised if Reid dials up more running plays -- especially if Anarumo drops back eight in pass coverage again as he did in the second half in the AFC Championship Game last year. Since Week 10, rookie running back Isaih Pacheco has rushed for 728 yards, the third most in the NFL during that span. Additionally, I think the Mahomes injury puts the onus on his teammates to step up and play championship-level football to pick him up. Defensive tackle Chris Jones has yet to register a sack in his career in the playoffs — and while some of that is due to double teams (which frees up his partner on the line, Frank Clark), he needs to have a big game now. All this “Burrowhead Stadium” talk this week should have the Chiefs very chippy. We should not underestimate the home-field advantage Kansas City will enjoy tonight at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49-point range. While Cincinnati has won the last three meetings between these teams in the last 13 months, only one of those games was played in KC. I love Joe Burrow — I totally get it — and I take a back seat to no one in my appreciation for this Bengals defense under Anarumo. However, I do wonder if this team is primed for a letdown after their emotional upset victory in Buffalo last week after feeling disrespected by the NFL for being snubbed from having that game played on a neutral field. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory by 10 or more points. Furthermore, the Bengals caught a break last week with the snowy conditions that slowed down the Bills' pass rush. Cincinnati still has three starting offensive linemen out today — that narrative has seemed to completely disappeared (and I get that losing Jonah Williams may be addition by subtraction). While the Mahomes injury is significant, the state of Burrow’s offensive line remains a bit factor as well. Finally, it gnaws at me that the Bengals have been outgained by -20.5 net Yards-Per-Game in their ten games on the road. And despite winning their last three games, they have been outgained by -57.3 net YPG in those contests.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has won three in a row against the Chiefs since Week 17 of last season — but all three games were decided by a field goal with all three contests being nip-and-tuck. Can the Bengals win yet a fourth coin flip in a row? Kansas City has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. I go back to Andy Reid: beating Cincinnati was the central question he had to answer in the offseason. I think he gets it done. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (324) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (323). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (321) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (322). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (15-4) won their 12th game in a row with their 19-12 win against Dallas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (15-3) won for the seventh time in their last nine games with a 38-7 victory against the New York Giants as an 8-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: I think this Eagles team is loaded with talent — but I suspect that quarterback Jalen Hurts and head coach Nick Sirianni are a year away from reaching the promised land. The 49ers probably have the best overall roster in the league — with a core group of players that played in the 2021 Super Bowl and then lost in the NFC Championship Game last season. Kyle Shanahan has been in this position many times before as a head coach and as an offensive coordinator — and I do think that gives him an edge. The big caveat for this Niners team is Brock Purdy at quarterback. As someone who handicapped every single one of his starts in college at Iowa State, I have been a Purdy skeptic. Not that I am particularly down on his talent (relative to where he was drafted), but I am just very familiar with how the wheels can fall off for him when he does get into trouble. That said, he is in an ideal situation with the talent at the skill positions — and Shanahan is the prototype head coach to take advantage of his skill set. After re-watching the Cowboys game from last week, I see a quarterback that continues to do everything that Shanahan asks of him — while his numbers last week may not have been outstanding after completing 19 of 29 passes for 214 yards without a touchdown pass, he did not throw an interception or make costly mistakes. His quarterback rating of 108 was the best of all the playoff quarterbacks last week. Adding Christian McCaffrey onto this team has made their offense nearly unstoppable. With Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, and now McCaffrey, Shanahan now has four hybrid players who serve as jokers who can play multiple positions on offense. The four of them combine to create 13 different looks for this Niners’ offense — and this just puts a massive strain on opposing defenses. All these weapons make the job easier for Purdy who simply needs to act as a point guard in distributing the football. San Francisco scored 38.7 PPG and generated 423.3 YPG in their last three regular-season games. Shanahan uses “21” personnel often with two running backs in the backfield and one tight end (including the now-healthy Elijah Mitchell in the mix with McCaffrey and Juszczyk). This will present a unique challenge to the Eagles' defense that only encountered 25 dropbacks to pass against 21 personnel this season — and they ranked near the bottom of the league using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders defending against 21 personnel. Shanahan will have to use all his tricks to keep up with this Philadelphia offense. On defense, while the Eagles have many really good players, do they have transcendent superstars like Nick Bosa or Arik Armstead on their defensive line? Do they have ballers at linebacker like Fred Warner and the criminally underrated Dre Greenlaw? Haason Reddick is playing the best football in his career for Philly this season — and there is not a real weakness with their group. But the Niners have superstars — and this is a superstar moment. There is a reason why San Francisco has won 12 games in a row despite suffering their second major injury at quarterback during that stretch of games. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. They have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not allowing their last opponent to score more than 14 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Niners have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. And they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road as an underdog. Philadelphia has proven they are in a higher weight class than the Giants this month — but they are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. After not beating a playoff team last season, they took full advantage of their soft schedule this year to seize the top seed in the NFC. But I simply cannot get over the fact that their best resume victory (to put this in March Madness college basketball terms) is either against a Dallas team using Cooper Rush at quarterback or against a Minnesota team that was outscored and outgained in yardage this season. Their non-conference victory against Jacksonville in October was before Trevor Lawrence took his next step in his development. I don’t feel I am discounting Jalen Hurts who I followed extra closely this year as my fantasy quarterback for Destination Humiliation. I just don’t know if he can pass his way to victory against an elite opponent — and I remain unsure how healthy he is with his shoulder injury that usually takes no longer to fully heal.

FINAL TAKE: It will be all hands on deck for both teams in this one — and that probably means players like Deebo Samuel getting more touches on kick-off and punt returns. I expect the 49ers supporting cast to make the plays to help their rookie quarterback manage this game to victory. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games against NFC rivals. They have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games in January — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games in the playoffs. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the NFC — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in January. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (321) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (318) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (317). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (14-4) has won 11 straight games after their 41-23 win against Seattle as a 10-point favorite last Saturday. Dallas (13-5) has won three of their last four games after their 31-14 win at Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys play this game under terrible circumstances. First, they have 2 1/2 fewer days to recover and prepare for this contest when compared to the 49ers who played the early game last Saturday. When facing a physical 49ers team on both sides of the ball, this is a significant problem. Second, this will be Dallas’ fourth straight game on the road — and all that travel tends to finally take its toll. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing on a short week after appearing on Monday Night Football. The Cowboys have been resilient off losses — but they remain inconsistent. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 14 or more points. They are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. Dak Prescott embodies this inconsistency. While he comes off a fantastic effort on Monday, he still has thrown 15 interceptions this season with 3.8 % of his pass attempts getting picked off. Dallas has also been a much better team at home where they have an 8-1 record this season while scoring 30.0 Points-Per-Game and outscoring their guests by +13.3 net PPG and enjoying a +9 net turnover margin. But in they are just 5-4 away from home while scoring -2.4 fewer PPG and only owning a +2 net turnover margin. Dallas has covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 39 road games after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. The Cowboys' splits have been even more pronounced when they are playing on grass where they are just 2-4 with an average losing margin of -1.2 PPG and a -16.1 net Yards-Per-Game mark. On the other hand, San Francisco is 11-3 when playing on grass (including on their home field at Levi’s Stadium) with a +12.6 net PPG clip and a +72.8 net YPG mark. They hold their opponents to just 296.6 YPG when playing on grass which results in just 15.1 PPG. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory — and they are 11-2-3 ATS in their last 16 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Adding Christian McCaffrey onto this team has made their offense nearly unstoppable. With Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, and now McCaffrey, head coach Kyle Shanahan now has four hybrid players who serve as jokers who can play multiple positions on offense. The four of them combine to create 13 different looks for this Niners’ offense — and this just puts a massive strain on opposing defenses. All these weapons make the job easier for rookie quarterback Brock Purdy who simply needs to act as a point guard in distributing the football. San Francisco has scored 38.7 PPG and generated 423.3 YPG in their last three games. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games at home.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points -- and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home when favored. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in January — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (318) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (317). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (315) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (316). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (13-4) has won nine games in a row after their 24-17 win against Baltimore as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday night. Buffalo (14-3) has won eight games in a row after their 34-31 victory against Miami last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati is 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up win. And while the Bengals gave up only 234 yards against the Ravens last week, they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after failing to gain more than 250 yards in their last contest. The Cincinnati defense gave up 364 yards to Baltimore in that game — but they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. The Bengals have significant injury issues on their offensive line with La’el Collins, Alex Cappa, and now Jonah Williams out with injuries — but Joe Burrow has become quite used to playing behind a suspect offensive line. The narrative that this Bengals unit has improved from last year has been overstated on closer analysis. The improved sack numbers this season are more likely the result of Burrow’s improved mobility in the pocket two years after his ACL injury. Cincinnati has a Pass Block Win Rate of 50% (even when healthy) which is the third-worst in the NFL. Burrow had the Bengals in a position to win the Super Bowl last season behind a bad offensive line — and he should keep his team competitive in Buffalo this afternoon. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games as an underdog getting 7 points or less. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 16 of their 20 games on the road an underdog with Burrow as their starting quarterback. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home after a win against an AFC East rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning three or more games in a row. And while they held the Dolphins to only 42 rushing yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. I am concerned that this Bills team is wrapped up too tight in their pursuit to win the Super Bowl. They are making too many mistakes at this point of the season — and it starts with Josh Allen who has thrown five interceptions and lost a fumble in the last three weeks. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they are 1-3-1 ATS. In their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and Cincinnati is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (315) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (304) minus the points versus the New York Giants (303). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (14-3) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 22-16 victory as a 17-point favorite against the Giants on January 8th. New York (10-7-1) has won two of their last three games after their 31-24 upset win at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog in the Wildcard Playoffs last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: The Giants pulled off the upset last week against an overrated Vikings team that outscored and outgained in yardage — but this is a very difficult spot for them now with them playing on the road for a third straight week after being in Philadelphia just two weeks ago. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing their last two games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after playing a game where at least 50 or more combined points were scored. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in four straight games to close out the regular season — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Quarterback Jalen Hurts returned to action two weeks ago — and it remains very much a question if he has his mobility back to operate the Run-Pass Option attack that was so successful in the regular season. But the Eagles should still torch New York with their passing attack. The Giants rank last in the league in pass defense according to the DVOA metrics. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Eagles beat five of the six playoff teams they played in the regular season — and New York lost to six of the nine playoff teams they faced including their win last week in Minnesota.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia did not play their best football to end the regular season — but they had the luxury of taking their foot off the accelerator by being in control to take the top seed in the NFC with just one victory in their final three games. Injuries played a role — but they are getting healthy again. This is a team looking to take the next step after losing in the playoffs last season — and the Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the postseason. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (302) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (301). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-3) concluded their regular season on a five-game winning streak — with 10 wins in their last 11 games — after a 31-13 win at Las Vegas as a 9-point favorite on January 7th. Jacksonville (10-8) has won six games in a row after their 31-30 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Never in doubt(!) for those of us that had the Jaguars last week. Jacksonville trailed by a 27-0 score in the second quarter before scoring a crucial late touchdown to go into halftime trailing by 20 points. They then got plenty of help from the Chargers coaching staff that did not take advantage of burning time off the clock by running the football — allowing the Jags to methodically rally to take the lead and win this game. Great win for head coach Doug Pederson and quarterback Trevor Lawrence — but I am worried about the emotional letdown for this team after pulling off this near-miracle comeback. I am also worried about a few other aspects for Jacksonville in this step-up in competition. For starters, only two of the six teams they have played during their current winning streak made the playoffs — the Chargers and Dallas. They benefitted from playing against backup quarterbacks in their victories against the New York Jets and two wins against Tennessee. But remember that they needed a late defensive touchdown to beat Joshua Dobbs and the Titans to clinch their spot in the playoffs two weeks ago despite playing at home in that game. They only scored seven first-half points in that game as well — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 7 points in the first half in two straight games. Lawrence’s propensity to make mistakes and commit turnovers remains a significant issue as well despite his overcoming those four first-half interceptions last week. He has accounted for 21 turnovers this year from 12 interceptions and another nine fumbles. The Jaguars upset the Chargers despite a -5 net turnover margin — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. And while Lawrence passed for 288 yards last week, Jacksonville is 7-20-2 ATS in their last 29 games after gaining 250 or more yards in the air in their last game. Now Lawrence goes on the road where he has led the Jags to victory in just four of his 17 career road starts. The Jaguars were 4-6 on the road this season — and they were outscored by -24.9 net Yards-Per-Game in those contests. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 8 road games as an underdog this season. Additionally, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the total set at 49.5 or higher including four of their last five games on the road. Now here comes the Chiefs with head coach Andy Reid’s teams covering the point spread in 20 of his 33 games when coaching with two more weeks of rest and preparation. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win on the road against an AFC West rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit win against a divisional rival. Patrick Mahomes faces a Jaguars defense that ranks 30th in the league in pass defense using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 playoff games at home at Arrowhead Stadium.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City beat Jacksonville at home earlier this season by a 27-17 score on November 13th — but after racing out to a 20-0 lead before letting up and letting the Jags back in that game, they are not likely to take this team lightly. The Jaguars are only 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 trips to Kansas City. The Chiefs reach their fifth straight AFC Championship Game with the win — their decisive edge in playoff experience should lead them to a double-digit win. 25* AFC Divisional Playoff Round Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (302) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (151). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (8-9) has lost three of their last five games after their 30-17 loss at Atlanta as a 6-point favorite on Sunday. Dallas (12-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 26-6 upset loss at Washington as a 7.5-loss last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Buccaneers had the NFC South division wrapped up going into last week so we should not read too much into their results last week. They only gained 222 yards last week against the Falcons — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 straight games after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. The more telling performance was two weeks ago when Tampa Bay clinched their spot in the playoffs with a 30-24 victory at home against Carolina. Tom Brady demonstrated that he still has a few tricks up his sleeve as he completed 34 of 45 passes for 432 yards in the victory. What was particularly encouraging for Buccaneers’ backers was the emergence of wide receiver Mike Evans who caught 10 passes for 207 yards with three touchdown passes. If the Brady-to-Evans connection continues to be reliable, this deep passing threat should help open up the once-stagnant Tampa Bay offense. Frankly, I suspect that Brady and this Buccaneers offense have been sandbagging some things with the expectation that they would be hosting a first-round playoff game. The offense has been most effective when operating from no-huddle — it was from this formation that Brady was able to engineer comeback victories in games like their win against New Orleans for Monday Night Football the first Monday in December. Don’t be surprised if the Bucs operate out of no-huddle much more tonight (rather than just at crunch time). Getting Ryan Jensen back at center will also help enormously — after speculation all week by practicing with the first unit, he was activated earlier today to be eligible to play tonight. The Bucs also get starting cornerback Carlton Davis back for this game to bolster the depth of the secondary. As Brady commented early last week, this Tampa Bay team is probably the healthiest they have been all season. Dallas hopes they can flip the switch in the postseason after their flat effort last week against the Commanders. But this is a tough situational spot for them having to play away from home for a third straight week. The Cowboys are at their best when they are at home where they were 8-1 this season while scoring 30.0 Points-Per-Game and outscoring their guests by +13.3 net PPG and enjoying a +9 net turnover margin. But in they are just 4-4 away from home while scoring -6.0 fewer PPG and only owning a +1 net turnover margin. Dallas is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road. They are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games in January.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys are a team that seems to be preparing themselves for more postseason disappointment. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight playoff games — and Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs. Whatever one thinks about this Buccaneers team, the 2021 Super Bowl champs consider themselves winners — and that gives them an edge against this Cowboys team. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (151). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (149) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (150). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (10-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-16 loss on the road against the Bengals as an 11-point underdog last Sunday. Cincinnati (12-4) has won eight games in a row after their victory against the Ravens last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: Baltimore is going to be a tough out for the Bengals being a divisional rival who knows them very well. The Ravens are outstanding in two of the three phases of the game. Their special teams rank 3rd in the NFL using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. Head coach John Harbaugh will lean on special teams and his defense which has been outstanding in the second half of the season since acquiring linebacker Roquan Smith from Chicago. Since that trade, Baltimore is holding their opponents to 14.7 Points-Per-Game and 288.8 Yards-Per-Game, ranking 2nd and 3rd in the NFL during that span. Additionally, they lead the league by allowing only 11 touchdowns with Smith on the team while ranking tied for third by allowing only 40 Big Plays — and they are 6th in Sack Percentage per opponent dropback. Anthony Brown was their quarterback last week — he completed only 19 of 44 passes but for 286 yards against the Bengals' defense while leading the Ravens to 386 total yards. Lamar Jackson is not close to ready to return to the field with swelling still in his knee. It looks to be Tyler Huntley back at quarterback tonight — but no matter who is under center, the Ravens will commit to running the ball after sandbagging their rushing attack with only 27 running plays last week, the fewest in 11 games. But the Harbaugh formula success works — his teams have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games as an underdog. Additionally, Baltimore is 33-13-5 ATS in their last 51 games on the road against teams with a winning record at home. The Ravens have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road in the postseason. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning a game at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. The Bengals have significant injury issues on their offensive line with both La’el Collins and Alex Cappa out with injuries — meaning Joe Burrow will be playing behind backups on the right side of the line. The narrative that this Bengals unit has improved from last year appears overstated on closer analysis. Instead, the improved sack numbers this season are more likely the result of Burrow’s improved mobility in the pocket two years after his ACL injury. Cincinnati has a Pass Block Win Rate of 50% (even when healthy) which is the third-worst in the NFL. They also struggle to run the football — they are averaging only 2.8 Yards-Per-Carry in their last three games with a 60 rushing YPG average. Baltimore has proven to be one of the most difficult opponents for Burrow to move the ball in his career. In their previous two games this season, Burrow only completes 63.6% of his passes for 432 yards and a 5.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with only two touchdown passes. The Ravens play do not blitz Burrow under new defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald — instead, they use eight players in pass coverage while showing exotic looks regarding who and when their four rushers go after Burrow.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the Wildcard Round — and the Bengals are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in the AFC Wildcard Round. The Road team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these two teams — and I expect those trends to continue. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Baltimore Ravens (149) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (144) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (143). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (9-8) has won five games in a row after their 20-16 win against Tennessee as a 6-point favorite last Saturday night. Los Angeles (10-7) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 31-28 loss at Denver as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville experienced a character-building victory last week by relying on their defense to pull out a “must-have” game against a tenacious Titans team. We had Tennessee last week so it was expected that Mike Vrabel’s team would impose their will on the Jaguars in a low-scoring contest behind a rested Derrick Henry — but Jacksonville forced a late strip-sack on the Titans’ Joshua Dobbs that Josh Allen scooped up and raced into the end zone for the winning score. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games after defeating an AFC South rival in their last game. While Trevor Lawrence is getting most of the attention for this team, their defense has forced 11 turnovers in the last five games. Jacksonville has held their last three opponents to just 272.0 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in only 7.3 Points-Per-Game they have allowed. The Jaguars are developing a formidable home-field advantage at TIAA Bank Field where they have won five of their seven games this season while holding their guests to just 335.3 total YPG and 19.0 PPG. They were neglected an eighth home game this season with their annual trip to London — but they come into this game on a four-game home winning streak which includes victories against playoff teams Baltimore and Dallas. Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 4 straight home games as an underdog. Lawrence does appear to have taken the next step in his development into one of the elite quarterbacks in the league. In his first eight starts this season, Lawrence completed 62.5% of his passes for 1840 yards and a 6.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with 10 touchdown passes, six interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 84.0. In his last nine starts, the former number one pick in the NFL draft completed 69.7% of his passes for 2273 yards and a 7.4 YPA with 15 touchdowns, only two interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 104.6 that leads the league during that span. He should get plenty of help from running back Travis Etienne who averaged 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry en route to his 1125 rushing yards this season. The Chargers rank 29th in the league in Run Defense using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They allow 5.6 YPC on the road which has resulted in home teams generating 156 rushing YPG. James Robinson torched this Chargers' defense for 120 yards in their first meeting on September 25th. Los Angeles head coach Brandon Staley loves his two-high safety shell looks — and that scheme worked when he was the defensive coordinator with the Rams two years ago. But without Aaron Donald patrolling the middle of the line of scrimmage, his Chargers’ defense has been mauled by opposing rushing attacks in his two seasons as their head coach. While the run defense improved in the second half of the season, Los Angeles has allowed their last two opponents to rush for 371 yards — throwing water on the narrative that getting Joey Bosa back elevated their ability to stop the run. The Jaguars are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams from the AFC. Los Angeles has scored 59 points in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 25 points in their last two games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after scoring 25 or more points in two games in a row. Furthermore, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing to an AFC West rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing to a divisional rival by seven points or less. And while Los Angeles has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. It should be noted that the Chargers played a weak schedule down the stretch that included Tennessee (in the game where Ryan Tannehill got injured), Indianapolis, the LA Rams, and then the Broncos — all teams that did not make the playoffs. Additionally, the loss of wide receiver Mike Williams is devastating for this team after Staley felt the need to play his key starters for an extended length of time last week despite having little at stake in their game against the Broncos. Williams injured his back in that game which will keep him out of this contest. The Chargers were 8-5 with a healthy Williams while scoring more than 24 PPG and averaging 372 YPG and 276 passing YPG — but they were 2-2 without him while scoring about 20 PPG and averaging just 317 total YPG due to getting 40 fewer YPG in the air. Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi has quarterback Justin Herbert stuck in a short passing game where his average intended air yards per attempt is just 6.7 yards, ranking the third-lowest amongst starting quarterbacks. In games without Williams, Herbert’s average depth of target drops from 6.7 yards to 5.8 yards — making this offensive attack easier to defend.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t like the vibes with this Chargers team with Staley leading the way — and that dynamic is only made worse after contradicting the logic of not playing starters in the preseason by asking his starters to play last week. Now Williams is injured, the team is traveling east, and Sean Payton is lurking to take over this group. Los Angeles only beat one of the six teams on their schedule that made the playoffs — and that was the 7th-seed Miami Dolphins. Jacksonville has a 3-3 record against playoff teams— and they are in a much better position with a Super Bowl-winning head coach Doug Pederson steering the ship. Los Angeles will have the extra motivation to avenge their 38-10 loss at home to the Jaguars on September 25th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss by 21 or more points. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Jacksonville Jaguars (144) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (143). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (288) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (287) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Georgia (14-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 42-41 victory against Ohio State as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. TCU (13-1) advanced to this championship game with their 51-45 upset victory against Michigan as a 9-point underdog on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: The Horned Frogs have been a great story all season — and they continued their Cinderella run last week with an improbable victory against the Wolverines. But cooler heads need to prevail with how improbable this achievement was — as they needed help from the refs, along with arrogant play-calling from the Michigan coaching staff, and plenty of mistakes from the Wolverines’ players. TCU got outgained by -40 yards with their defense giving up 528 total yards. On the first drive of the game, Michigan should have taken the three points when it was 4th down on the Horned Frogs' 2-yard line. Instead, they went for it, which is fine enough, but rather than running behind their two-time reigning Joe Moore award-winning top offensive line, they called some double-reverse Philly special disaster that was flagged by their calling a timeout before the play — as if winning the game was already a lock and they wanted to load up the game tape for their opponent in the national championship. The defensive stop gave the underdogs momentum — and that was later bolstered when the Horned Frogs returned the first of two interceptions for touchdowns. Michigan failed to score touchdowns on three drives that got inside the TCU 3-yard line — they settled for only three points in those drives. The referees played a role in one of those red zone failures by a very sketchy overturn in a 50-yard touchdown pass (after these refs incorrectly spotted the previous play five yards farther back against the Wolverines than it should have been). The Wolverines then muffed the handoff to the linebacker-converted running back. From J.J. McCarthy’s two pick-sixes in this game and the two failures to score points at the TCU two-yard line, that represented a likely 27-point swing for the Horned Frogs (who missed a two-point conversion on the second interception they returned for a touchdown) — and Michigan still had the ball with a chance to win the game (before the refs swallowed their whistles after a textbook targeting violation which would have been called every time if not in the last minute of the game). The Wolverines exposed the TCU defense in the second half when they finally unleashed McCarthy to move the ball with his legs. Michigan scored 35 points in a 16 minute-span beginning with their field goal to end the 3rd quarter. But they continued to give up big plays on defense with defensive coordinator Jesse Minter deploying aggressive zero blitz schemes to get after Max Duggan who was able to counter with big plays. Quentin Johnson scored a critical touchdown in the 3rd quarter by inducing a bad missed tackle before going to the races against the Wolverines' defense that did not have a safety back to help in an emergency like this. The Georgia coaching staff will not make these arrogant mistakes — and they will discover that Duggan and the Horned Frogs' offense was mostly being contained, save for these big plays. Granted, TCU has lived off its explosiveness all season — but that is more reason for the Bulldogs to not be arrogant and focus their energies on taking these potential big plays away from the Horned Frogs. TCU ran the ball 41 times for 263 yards which was the best rushing effort in their last ten games. But now they face a Georgia defense that went into the playoffs holding their opponents to just 2.9 rushing Yards-Per-Carry with just five rushing touchdowns. To compound matters, the Horned Frogs’ top running back Kendre Miller is questionable with an injury that he suffered last week. What happens to the TCU offense if they struggle to run the ball? What happens if they have to start playing from behind rather than benefitting from two defensive touchdowns? Credit goes to the Horned Frogs coaching staff — and Duggan who is a wily veteran quarterback who can burn opposing defense with his legs — as they scored touchdowns on every one of their red zone trips (despite ranking 80th in Red Zone Efficiency going into that game) and every one of their goal-to-go plays. But can they continue to do that against this Georgia defense? Duggan only completed 14 of his 29 passes for 225 yards — and he threw two interceptions. As it is, TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 40 or more points in their last game. And while McCarthy threw for 343 yards against them, the Horned Frogs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 280 or more yards in their last contest. This remains a team that has won six of their seven games decided by one-scoring possession with five second-half comebacks along the way. Away from home, TCU is only outgaining their opponents by +12.7 Yards-Per-Game while giving up 428.6 YPG. The Horned Frogs' defense is far from elite — they have given up 31 or more points six times and 28 or more points eight times (which is more than half their games). Immediately after the game, there was a narrative that their 3-3-5 defense held up against the stout Michigan offensive line. Really? The Wolverines ran the ball 40 times for 186 yards (4.65 YPC) even with their questionable play-calling. Only a Big 12 team can be praised for the play of their defense after giving up 45 points and 528 total yards. And now here comes Georgia looking to defend their national championship from last year after demonstrating their grit and tenacity to beat a Buckeyes team with nothing to lose after losing their big game against Michigan which seemed to remove them from the playoffs at the time. Georgia has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games after a point spread loss including nine of these last eleven circumstances. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. The Bulldogs outgained Ohio State by +66 net yards after generating 533 total yards against them — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. While their elite defense gets most of the credit, the Georgia offense has scored at least 37 points in three straight games and four of their last five after scoring 37 or more points in three straight games. And while the Bulldogs have allowed 348 passing yards, they have then covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after allowing 325 or more passing yards. Georgia has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 bowl games.

FINAL TAKE: Despite winning last week, are the Horned Frogs still a bit satisfied to just be in this position? I felt that way last week — and while they pulled off the upset, they needed lots of help. In head coach Sonny Dykes first year with the program after they were 5-7 last year, there is simply a huge talent disparity in this game. Can TCU pull off another improbable effort? This is the 5th time in the last three seasons where they are an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of those 4 games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games played on a neutral field. Georgia is loaded with future NFL talent that has won 28 of their last 29 games in the last two seasons. They have a huge edge in big-game experience — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points including these last seven circumstances. Look for the Bulldogs to seize a lead, impose their will, and overwhelm the Horned Frogs for the win and cover. 25* CFB Game of the Year with the Georgia Bulldogs (288) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (460) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (459). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (8-8) has won four games in a row after their 41-17 victory against Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (8-8) has won four of five and seven of their last nine after their 41-10 win against Chicago as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Green Bay has finally gotten their act together after hitting rock bottom with a 4-8 record going into December. Getting healthy has helped. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers finally embracing their running game has made a big difference as well. The Packers have run the ball at least 32 times in three of their last four games while generating at least 138 rushing yards behind Aaron Jones and A.J. Jones in the backfield. But perhaps the biggest tactical change Green Bay has embraced has been on the other side of the ball. The Packers are blitzing less — going from a 42% blitz rate in their first 15 games to just a 10% blitz rate in their last three. With the extra available pass defenders, Green Bay is playing multiple coverage schemes including more Cover-6 or two high safety looks. After ranking second-to-last in the league by allowing their opponents to complete 59.3% of their passes, their opponent completion percentage has dropped to 52.6% in their last three games, ranking 5th in the NFL. The Packers have picked off seven passes in their last three games with just one dropped which is a significant improvement over ten interceptions in their first 13 games where they dropped six potential interceptions. In these last three games, Green Bay ranks 3rd in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders. The Packers should build off their momentum now as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win against an NFC North foe — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games at home after beating a divisional rival by 21 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last contest. They have covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in their last four games. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning four games in a row. Forcing more turnovers has played a big role in their recent success. The Packers have enjoyed a +3 or better turnover margin in two straight and three of their last four games. They have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after having a +3 or better turnover margin in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 10 straight games after posting a +3 or better turnover margin in two straight games. Back at home at Lambeau Field, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against NFC rivals. Detroit may be due for a letdown since they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after beating an NFC North rival by 21 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last contest. They have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after winning four of their last five games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They gained 504 yards against the Bears while averaging 7.41 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after generating 6.5 or more YPP. And while they held Chicago to just 230 total yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. The weather is expected to be in the low-20s tonight in Green Bay — which raises the issue of how Jared Goff and his small hands will perform under these conditions. At home under the dome, Goff has posted a 109.3 Passer Rating while completing 65.8% of his passes with 23 touchdown passes and just three interceptions, a 7.7 Yards-Per-Attempt average, and 247.2 passing YPG. But in his seven starts on the road, Goff has an 87.6 Passer Rating while completing 63.7% of his passes with only six touchdown passes and four interceptions with a 7.4 YPA and only 174.2 passing YPG. It’s an issue. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 road games this season with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay will be looking to avenge a 15-9 upset loss in Detroit to the Lions as a 4-point underdog on November 6th. The Lions rank 5th in the NFL in Passing DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders — but it will be difficult for Goff to replicate those numbers in these cold conditions. The Packers rank 3rd in the NFL in Rushing DVOA which will not be impacted by the cold weather — and they will be running against a Lions defense that ranks 27th in Opponent Rushing DVOA Allowed. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 9 points. 25* NFC North Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (460) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (459). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (455) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (456). THE SITUATION: New York (7-9) lost their fifth straight game after their 23-6 loss at Seattle as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (8-8) has lost five games in a row as well after their 23-21 loss at New England as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has played themselves out of the playoff race — and their offense has been anemic by scoring just nine combined points in their last two games. But I expect second-year head coach Robert Saleh to rally his troops in the role of the spoiler against a reeling Dolphins team that still clings to postseason hopes. The Jets have suffered three-straight upset losses — so turning the tables this week would give them some measure of satisfaction. Quarterback Mike White is out for this game with a rib injury — but I consider that a blessing in disguise since that allows for the veteran Joe Flacco to play under center this afternoon. Flacco may not be the quarterback of the future — but he is a savvy veteran with a Super Bowl championship on his resume. In limited time this season, he has thrown for 902 yards with five touchdowns and just three interceptions.  White thew two interceptions last week in the loss to the Seahawks. Flacco will be using this game as an audition to serve as a backup next season — hopefully, for him, a playoff contender. New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 9 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 6 points in their last game. Flacco will not have any druthers playing in a hostile environment — and the Jets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road. New York has also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 58 road games with the Total set in the 35.5-38 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 road games this season with the Total set in the 35.5-38 point range. Furthermore, the decision to sign Mike Glennon as backup quarterback signals that Teddy Bridgewater will probably not be available — and that means rookie Skyler Thompson gets the start under center. The 6th round pick out of Kansas State is completing only 54% of his 74 passes this season. He has thrown only one touchdown pass while tossing three interceptions — and his low 5.2 yards-per-attempt mark is concerning given the weapons and speed the Dolphins have on offense. It looks like starting left tackle Teron Armstead will not play with the foot injury that has him doubtful. This Jets' defense remains quite good — they hold their home hosts to just 308.3 total Yards-Per-Game which results in just 18.6 Points-Per-Game. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow loss by three points or less. Additionally, the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing three games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: Miami needs to win this game and then hope New England loses to Buffalo to make the playoffs — but there are rumors that the entire coaching staff will be fired if they do not make the playoffs. I think rookie head coach Mike McDaniel is a bit overrated because I don’t think the inventive play-calling he picked up from Kyle Shanahan necessarily qualifies him for the Hall of Fame quite yet. McDaniel has had some bumps this season — mostly with game management but also with the Tua Tagovailoa situation. Overall, I think he is doing fine and deserves another year — but the team’s owner dreams of Sean Payton or Jim Harbaugh coaching his team. Needless to say, I don’t like the vibes, once again, within this organization. 25* AFC East Underdog of the Year with the New York Jets (455) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (457) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (458). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (7-9) has lost six games in a row after their 27-13 loss to Dallas as a 14-point underdog last Thursday, December 29th. Jacksonville (8-8) has won four games in a row after their 31-3 win at Houston as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel rested most of his starters last week — but now he gets back running back Derrick Henry along with defensive stalwarts like Denico Autry and Jeffery Simmons for this showdown that will determine the AFC South title. Despite the six-game losing streak, don’t underestimate Vrabel’s ability to manage this game to impose his will of this being a grind-it-out slugfest. Tennessee ranks 2nd in the league in Run Defense using the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They have not given up more than 87 rushing yards in five straight games. The Titans have played three straight Unders under Vrabel — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. Tennessee is also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home. They go back on the road where they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games. Vrabel will keep Joshua Dobbs under center this week after he completed 20 of 39 passes for 232 yards against the Cowboys last week. While he only ran the ball three times for 12 yards, look for the former Tennessee Volunteers quarterback to be used much more in designed runs in this contest. Jacksonville followed up their 19-3 victory on the road against the New York Jets with their four-touchdown victory against the Texans last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after winning two straight games by 14 or more points. The Jaguars have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after winning their previous game by 28 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than nine points in two straight games. Second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence appears to have taken the next step in his development in the second half of this season — but he has been helped by an effective running game that will probably struggle to get going against an at full-strength Titans defensive front. This will be Lawrence’s biggest game in his NFL career. Jacksonville returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games as a favorite of up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: While commissioner Roger Goodell talks about “competitive equity” to defend the owners’ decision yesterday to change the written rules regarding playoff procedures to potentially set up neutral field games in the AFC playoffs, the league simultaneously shafted the Jaguars in this contest by requiring them to play on a short week against a Titans team that had extra days off after playing on a Thursday. Frankly, this game should be the Sunday night game to offer Jacksonville a normal week of rest and preparation. Tennessee has a huge situational edge that Vrabel was able to magnify by resting his key starters. As it is, the Titans have won five of the last six meetings between these two teams. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 8 of the last 11 meetings between these two teams — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Jaguars in Jacksonville. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with Tennessee Titans (457) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (107) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (108). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-8) has won two straight games — as well as four of their last five — after their 13-10 win against Las Vegas as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Baltimore (10-5) has won three of their last four — and seven of their last nine — after their 17-9 victory against Atlanta as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh is playing good football as of late — and it starts with their defense. They have held their last three opponents to 239.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has translated into only 14.0 Points-Per-Game. They are outscoring their opponents by +3.0 PPG and outgaining them by +95.0 net YPG. Kenny Pickett returned at quarterback last week and completed 26 of 39 passes for 244 yards. He did throw a touchdown along with an interception — but that pick was his first one in five starts. He is completing 65.2% of his passes in his rookie season. The Steelers outgained the Raiders last week by +149 while holding them to just 201 total yards. Las Vegas only gained 58 rushing yards last week — and Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. And while the Steelers have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road as an underdog getting up to three points. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 26 games in January under head coach Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 16-7-3 ATS. Baltimore is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a point-spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after winning three of their last four games. Furthermore, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Ravens have held their last four opponents to 14 points or less — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight games. But Baltimore has not scored more than 17 points in those four contests — they are averaging just 11.5 PPG during that span. If the Ravens’ offense was limited under Lamar Jackson this season without a legitimate number-one wide receiver after trading away Hollywood Brown in the offseason, then things have been even worse with Tyler Huntley under center for the injured Jackson (who has not yet been cleared to play). Huntley completed only nine of his 17 passes last week for just 115 yards. He added 26 yards on the ground — but he is not nearly the same threat with his legs as Jackson. Huntley has only one touchdown passes in his four games this season — and he is averaging just 138 passing YPG and 5.8 yards per attempt. He is getting sacked once in every 15 dropbacks. Baltimore stays at home where they are getting outgained in yardage despite their 5-2 record. They are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games when favored by seven points or less. The Ravens have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow AFC North opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers are looking to avenge a 16-14 upset loss at home to Baltimore as a 4.5-point underdog on December 11th — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* AFC North Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (107) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (273) and the Georgia Bulldogs (274) in the College Football Playoff Semifinals in the Peach Bowl. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (11-1) lost their first game of the season in a 45-23 upset loss against Michigan as a 9-point favorite on November 26th. Georgia (13-0) continued their unbeaten season with a 50-30 win against LSU as a 17-point favorite in the SEC Championship Game on December 3rd. This game is being played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Ohio State allowed only 15.6 Points-Per-Game and 5.2 Yards-Per-Play in their first ten games — but their last two contests against Maryland and then the Wolverines saw them give up 37.5 PPG and 7.3 YPP. The extended break since the loss to Michigan should help the Ohio State defense get back to full health. Injuries slowed down linebacker Tommy Eichenberger, defensive backs Lathan Ransom and Denzel Burke, and defensive tackle Michael Hall, Jr. They will be in better condition tonight. The Buckeyes were a defense that ranked 8th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 27th in Yards-Per-Attempt allowed in the passing game. Their pass defense tightened to hold their opponents to just 5.5 YPG when placing seven or more defenders in the box — so the commitment to stop the run should not burn them with big plays in the passing game tonight as it did against the Wolverines. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has had over a month to make corrections from the mistakes against Michigan. Ohio State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games away from home after a loss at home at the Horseshoe. The Buckeyes have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 21 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after an upset loss against a Big 10 foe as a home favorite. And while they have covered the point spread just once in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite in their last game. And while the Bulldogs generated 529 yards against the Tigers, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. Georgia did show some vulnerability with their defense as LSU gained 549 yards against them. Facing the Buckeyes will be their toughest test this season. The Total is set high for Georgia with the Total in the low-60s. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range including three of their four games this season with the Total set in that range.

FINAL TAKE: Ohio State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points on a neutral field. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Ohio State Buckeyes (273) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (276) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (275) in the College Football Semifinals in the Fiesta Bowl. THE SITUATION: Michigan (13-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 43-22 victory against Purdue as a 16-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 3rd. TCU (13-0) lost their first game of the season in a 31-28 loss to Kansas State as a 1-point underdog in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 3rd. This game is being played at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan was happy to reach the Semifinals last year after beating Ohio State and winning the Big Ten title — but now they are aiming to win the National Championship. They should build off their momentum — they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a win by 20 or more points. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point-spread victory. And while the Wolverines gave up 456 total yards to the Boilermakers, they are then 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing 450 or more yards in their last game. Sophomore quarterback J.J. McCarthy threw for 20 touchdowns with just three interceptions this season. He has specialized in the vertical passing game by averaging 18.4 yards per completion in his last two games with seven of his 24 completions being of 20 or more yards and four of those completions being 40 or more yards. The Wolverines were probably holding back their passing attack for the Ohio State game — now with the benefit of bowl practice, expect another growth spurt in development in the former five-star recruit out of high school. The Wolverines’ red zone issues also improved late in the season — after a 64% touchdown rate in their red zone trips in the first two months of the season, they scored TDs in 75% of their red zone trips after November 1st. Michigan should remain on schedule after ranking 6th in Standard Down Success Rate — and they face a Horned Frogs defense that was 61st in Standard Down Success Rate Allowed including ranking 69th in that department specifically against the run. TCU allowed four of their last five opponents to either rush for 200 or more yards or average at least 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The Wolverines may have the best offensive line in the nation — I suspect they will overwhelm the Horned Frogs' 3-3-5 defense that attempts to hide a small defensive front. TCU gave up 208 rushing yards to Kansas State — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after allowing 200 or more rushing yards in their last contest. That Wildcats team is similar — albeit with less talent — than what the Horned Frogs will face today in the Wolverines. TCU’s defense can be scored on — Kansas and Oklahoma State combined for 71 points against them. They rank 128th in Opponent Explosiveness Allowed on Standard Downs which is a scary proposition against this Wolverines team. The Horned Frogs only outgained their opponents by +20.2 YPG when playing away from home. They have covered the point spread only once in their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 bowl games.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Big Ten — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against ranked opponents. Finally, 11 of the last 15 CFP Semifinal games have been decided by more than 14 points — and 8 of those winners were favorites laying more than seven points. 10* CFB TCU-Michigan ESPN Special with Michigan Wolverines (276) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (267) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (268) in the Orange Bowl. THE SITUATION: Clemson (39-10) won for the third time in their last four games in their 39-10 victory against North Carolina as a 7-point favorite in the ACC Championship Game on December 3rd. Tennessee (10-2) has won two of their last three games after their 56-0 win against Vanderbilt as a 14-point favorite on November 26th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Clemson’s season was jumpstarted against the Tar Heels when head coach Dabo Swinney benched junior D.J. Uigalelei for freshman phenom Cade Klubnik in the first half of that game. Klubnik completed 20 of his 24 passes for 279 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions to lead the Tigers to the 29-point win. Klubnik was considered by many to be the top quarterback in the 2022 class — and it was clear his presence on the field energized his teammates. Now this Clemson team looks to build momentum for a potential national championship run next year. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games on the road after a win by 21 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 49 games on the road after a win by 28 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after a point-spread win. And after Clemson passed for 317 yards overall against the Tar Heels, they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Swinney has to adjust two significant opt-outs with defensive end Myles Murphy and linebacker Trenton Simpson leaving the team to prepare for the NFL draft. But star defensive tackle Bryan Bresee is playing in this game and the players entering the transfer portal are limited. The Tigers remain loaded with talent on defense after holding their opponents to 20.1 Points-Per-Game this season. Clemson has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63-point range. Tennessee’s losses at this point of the season are much more significant. Their top two wide receivers, Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman have opted out to prepare for the NFL draft. Their top linebacker Jeremy Banks has also opted out. Offensive coordinator Alex Golesh left the program to become the head coach at South Florida. But the biggest loss has been the season-ending injury to quarterback Hendon Hooker who has since left the team for the NFL draft. Senior Joe Milton will be their quarterback tonight after he completed only 11 of 21 passes for just 147 yards against the Commodores. Milton does not operate the Volunteers' offense like Hooker was able to do. He originally played at Michigan where he was unable to hold on to the starting quarterback job in 2020 — the Wolverines’ 2-4 season. After losing the starting job, he transferred to Tennessee where he was the presumed starter in head coach Josh Heupel’s first season. But he faltered and was quickly usurped by Hooker who took the quarterback gig and ran with it the last two seasons. Hilton has a strong arm — but his accuracy remains a problem and he is not as mobile as Hooker. The Volunteers relied on their running game against the Volunteers — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after failing to pass for at least 170 yards in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by three or more touchdowns. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last contest. The Volunteers’ defense is a weak link — especially in the passing game where they ranked 94th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed and gave up 450 or more passing yards in three games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams outside the SEC — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral field. Clemson has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 bowl games under Swinney. 25* College Football Game of the Month is with the Clemson Tigers (267) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (264) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (263) in the Gator Bowl. THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (8-4) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in a 38-27 loss at USC as a 4-point underdog on November 26th. South Carolina (8-4) has won two straight games and three of their last four after a 31-30 upset win at Clemson as a 14-point underdog on November 26th. This game is being played at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH MINUS THE POINTS: The Gamecocks have pulled off two straight upset victories as they upset Tennessee as a 22.5-point favorite before beating Clemson the next week. But South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after upsetting two straight opponents. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after pulling off an upset in their last contest. Additionally, the Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a point spread victory. Second-year head coach Shane Beamer will be missing many of the key players who made these last two upsets possible. The top three defensive backs have opted out of this game to prepare for the NFL draft as has their stud defensive tackle Zach Pickens and a starting offensive lineman. Beamer also lost his fourth starting defensive back along with their top two running backs and a good tight end to the transfer portal. Furthermore, one of their leading wide receivers, Josh Vann, remains out with an injury. As it is, this was a group this season that got outgained in yardage by -13.3 net Yards-Per-Game. This team won both of the games that were decided by one-scoring possession. In their five games away from home, South Carolina got outscored by -4.8 PPG — and they got outgained in yardage by -30.2 net YPG. Notre Dame has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. The Fighting Irish did not force a turnover against the Trojans — but they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last game. And in their last 10 games after winning five or six of their last seven games, they have covered the point spread in 8 of these contests. Quarterback Drew Pyne completed 23 of 26 passes for 318 yards with three touchdown passes against USC — and the Irish have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing a game where they passed for 280 or more yards. Pyne has entered the transfer portal given the return of Tyler Buchner after missing most of the season with a shoulder injury. Buchner looks good to go after taking part in all 14 of the practices in preparation for this game. He is considered significantly better than Pyne. Buchner put up meager numbers in his two starts of the season (including a tough assignment against Ohio State) — but this is a much better Notre Dame offense now with significant improvement coming from their offensive line. The Fighting Irish have a good ground game with a three-headed monster of Chris Tyree, Logan Diggs, and Auric Estime. The Irish averaged 183 rushing Yards-Per-Game. The Gamecocks were vulnerable against good running teams even when their defense was at full strength — they surrendered 190 rushing YPG and 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. Notre Dame has their own opt-out and transfer portal issues. Most significantly, their All-American tight end Michael Mayer and likely NFL first-round draft pick Isaiah Foskey have opted out. Three other Irish players then Pyne entered the transfer portal — but they combined for just 81 snaps this season.

FINAL TAKE: This is an important game for the Fighting Irish who want to continue the momentum under first-year head coach Marcus Freeman. Notre Dame has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored by seven points or less when playing on a neutral field. 20* CFB South Carolina-Notre Dame ESPN Special with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (264) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (257) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (258) in the Alamo Bowl. THE SITUATION: Washington (10-2) has won six straight games after their 51-33 win at Washington State as a 2.5-point favorite on November 26th. Texas (8-4) has won three of their last four games after their 38-27 win against Baylor as a 10-point favorite on November 25th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Washington to continue to ride their momentum established under first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning three straight games. The Huskies took a 28-27 halftime lead in that contest — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring 24 or more points in the first half of their previous game. Additionally, Washington gained a whopping 733 yards against the Cougars' defense while averaging 10.65 Yards-Per-Play — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after averaging 6.25 or more YPP in their last game. And while they outgained Washington State by +270 net yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outgaining their previous opponent by +125 or more yards. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games after a game where both teams scored 31 or more points. Junior quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. should be motivated in this contest after declaring that he will return to Washington for his senior season — this will be the former Indiana transfer’s first bowl game in his career. He completed 25 of 43 passes for 485 yards with three touchdowns against the Cougars — and the Huskies have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for 375 or more yards in their last game. Penix leads an offense that leads the nation in Pass Success Rate. They average 377 passing YPG — and the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against opponents who average 275 or more passing YPG. Washington enters this bowl game with a full roster — but Texas is down some key players. The Longhorns’ top-two running backs, Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson have opted out for the NFL. Several depth players on both sides of the ball are in the transfer portal. But the biggest loss might be linebacker Demarion Overshown who is also opting out for the NFL draft. He led the Texas defense in tackles and quarterback pressure rate. The Huskies lead the nation in Havoc Rate Allowed — and they gave up only seven sacks this season. That leaves exposed a vulnerable Texas defense that ranked 85th in Pass Explosiveness Allowed. The Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after beating two straight Big 12 opponents in a row. And while they have two straight double-digit victories, head coach Steve Sarkisian’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after two or more wins by 10 or more points in a row. Freshman Quinn Ewers struggled down the stretch of the season with his average depth of target dropping to just 5.4 yards per attempt — far below the 11-yard target depth for his passes on the season. He also sees his adjusted completion percentage drop by 20% when facing pressure — and now he faces a Washington defense that averaged 3.0 sacks per game and ranked 21st by Pro Football Focus in their Pass Rush grading.

FINAL TAKE: The Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Pac-12. 10* CFB Washington-Texas ESPN Special with the Washington Huskies (257) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (102) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (7-8) has lost five games in a row after their 19-14 upset loss to Houston as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. Dallas (11-4) has won five of their last six games after their 40-34 win against Philadelphia as a 4-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: I had been planning a 25* play on the Titans earlier in the week given the initial circumstances. But given all the players that Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel is resting — and his decision earlier today (that I suspected might be happening) that he is resting rookie quarterback Malik Willis for Joshua Dobbs (picked up off the Detroit Lions practice squad last week) — then I simply cannot invest 25* money into this side play. Now Dallas is going to rest players eventually as well — so I am investing 10* money into the Titans as a near 14-point dog out of mostly principle. The Cowboys know that they have this game in hand against the Tennessee backups — and Dallas has been sluggish as a double-digit favorite. They only beat the New York Giants by a 28-20 score as a 10-point favorite in November. They beat Houston by a 23-17 score as a 17-point favorite on December 11th. Even in their 54-19 victory at home against Indianapolis to begin the month was a close game with them taking a 21-19 lead into the fourth quarter before turnovers turned the momentum of that game. Dallas is prone to letdowns as well — they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And in their last 30 games on the road in the last two weeks of the season, they have failed to cover the point spread 21 times. What can I say that is positive about Tennessee, right now? Well … it takes a lot to not cover a point spread in the 13-point range. Dobbs is a journeyman who played his college ball at Tennessee — but he has mobility and will have the green light to generate yards with his legs (and he is very motivated since this is his audition to the entire league tonight). Rookie running back Hassan Haskins is good after leading Michigan to the College Football Playoff Semifinals last year. The Cowboys can be run on — they have allowed at least 106 rushing yards in three of their last four games. Even worse, three of their last eight opponents have gained 192 rushing yards against them. Even with the Titans' injuries on their offensive line last week against the Texans, they still got 184 rushing yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last game. And while Tennessee has only scored 28 combined points in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games at home after not scoring more than 14 points in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have clinched the top wildcard spot in the NFC playoff race but they are two games behind Philadelphia in the NFC East race — so they probably cannot improve their playoff positioning. In other words, Dallas is going to rest their players once this game is in hand. At that point, I just the value in all these points with the home underdog is too much to pass up. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on a Thursday. 10* NFL Dallas-Tennessee Amazon Prime Special with the Tennessee Titans (102) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (251) minus the points versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders (252) in the Texas Bowl. THE SITUATION: Mississippi (8-4) has lost three straight games after their 24-22 upset loss to Mississippi State as a 2.5-point favorite on November 24th. Texas Tech (7-5) has won three games in a row after their 51-48 upset victory in overtime against Oklahoma as a 1.5-point underdog on November 26th. This game will be played at NRG Stadium in Houston.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS MINUS THE POINTS: For those that question the motivation Ole Miss has for this game, then they don’t appreciate what Lane Kiffin is trying to do with this football program. Kiffin proclaimed himself the “portal king” after bringing in 15 transfer players last year — with many of them highly recruited out of high school. Kiffin firmly believes the paradigm has changed. Gone are the days of bringing in huge freshmen classes of players who will stay in the program for five years. Instead, high-profile coaches like Kiffin can recruit players from other schools and offer them high-profile jobs that represent either an upgrade from their current situation or more playing time from where they are at. Given that, bowl games like this — especially in prime time — are essential recruiting opportunities to sell the program. Now that the black cloud regarding the rumors of him taking the Auburn job that continued past kick-off in the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State last month, Kiffin and his new contract extension are all-in with this program. It starts by ending the season on a positive note. The Rebels have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after an upset loss to a conference rival as a home favorite. And while Ole Miss has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Kiffin’s roster is close to fully intact with no players opting out for the NFL draft. Three players entered the transfer portal including a cornerback in the two deep — but the departing defensive end only had 31 snaps and backup quarterback Luke Altmyer is clearly behind sophomore Jaxson Dart. The former USC transfer completed 63% of his passes while averaging 8.1 yards per attempt. He is complemented by freshman phenom running back Quinshon Judkins who has rushed for 439 yards with a 6.18 Yards-Per-Carry despite the Rebels losing those games — all to bowl teams in Alabama, Arkansas, and Mississippi State, by the way. Ole Miss outscored their opponents by +10.0 Points-Per-Game and outgained them by +109.5 net Yards-Per-Game. In their five road games, the Rebels outscored their opponents by +5.8 PG and outgained them by +135.0 net YPG. Led by Judkins and Dart who averaged 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry in his 117 rushing attempts, Ole Miss was third in the nation by averaging 262 rushing YPG. They should have plenty of success running against this Red Raiders defense that ranks 90th in the FBS by allowing 166 rushing YPG. The Texas Tech defense is the weak link in this game — they rank 97th in the nation by allowing 29.5 PPG. In their last three games, the Red Raiders are allowing 540.0 YPG. This team comes into this bowl game riding high with two straight upsets against Iowa State and then the Sooners. But Texas Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after pulling off an upset against a Big 12 rival including four of these last five circumstances. Additionally, the Red Raiders are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up victory — and they are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a point-spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last game. This team overachieved in the first season under head coach Joey McGuire — they have won all four of their games decided by one scoring possession. But this group is just 1-4 on the road with them getting outscored by -7.6 PPG. This Texas Tech is also without their All-American defensive end Tyree Wilson who has been out with an injury since November. The Red Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: McGuire was an assistant head coach for Baylor last year after being their tight ends coach for years — but his previous experience was as a long-time high school coach in Texas so this is his first bowl game as a head coach. Texas Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the SEC. Ole Miss is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams outside the SEC — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 bowl games. 25* CFB Wednesday ESPN Game of the Year with the Mississippi Rebels (251) minus the points versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.    

At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Utah State Aggies (239) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (240) in the First Responder Bowl. THE SITUATION: Utah State (6-6) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 42-23 loss at Boise State as a 16.5-point underdog on November 25th. Memphis (6-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 34-31 loss at SMU as a 4-point underdog to end their regular season. This game is being played at Gerald Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES PLUS THE POINTS: SMU lost all four of their games decided by one possession. After settling for a 6-6 mark last year with 13 starters back from that squad, expectations were higher for this team rather than settling for another 6-6 campaign and a bowl date with a 6-6 team from the Mountain West Conference. As it is, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss by three points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Memphis has a dynamic offense led by sophomore quarterback Seth Henigan who completed 27 of 44 passes for 287 yards in the loss to the Mustangs. But the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after passing for 280 or more yards in their last game. Henigan will be challenged by a Utah State defense that ranks 35th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. But the bigger problem for Memphis is their defense as they allow 27.3 Points-Per-Game — and in their five games on the road, they allowed their opponents to generate 420.6 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 36.2 PPG. The Tigers have a 25-4 record at home at Liberty Bowl Memorial since 2017 — but they were just 1-4 on the road this season. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games after the first month of the season under head coach Ryan Silverfield. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63-point range. For Utah State, contrary to published reports, senior running back Calvin Tyler, Jr. is not opting-out for this game to prepare for the NFL draft. Said Tyler about these rumors, he is “definitely playing.” He rushed for 1043 yards this season. He is joined by junior quarterback Cooper Legas who may be labeled a third-stringer by some given the talent that second-year head coach Blake Anderson brought in through the transfer portal, but Legas was the Most Valuable Player in last year’s Louisiana Bowl when he led the Aggies to a 24-13 victory against Oregon State. He completed 23 of 40 passes for 306 yards and added 51 rushing yards against the stout Boise State defense in Utah State’s last game. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after passing for 280 or more yards in their last game. They should have success against this Memphis defense that ranks 104th in the FBS in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed — and the Tigers also rank 126th in the nation in Points Allowed from opponent trips inside their 40-yard line. After a 1-4 start which included losses at Alabama and BYU (along with bad losses to Weber State and UNLV), Utah State won five of their last seven games. The Aggies have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning four or five of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Anderson’s teams at Utah State and in his previous stint at Arkansas State have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a loss to a conference rival by double-digits. Anderson’s Utah State teams have covered the point spread in 9 of their 13 games in the second half of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 bowl games. The Tigers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against non-conference opponents. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Game of the Year with the Utah State Aggies (239) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (240). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (482) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (481). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-9-1) has lost four straight games — and seven of their last eight contests — after their 39-36 loss in overtime at Minnesota as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Los Angeles (8-6) has two straight games — and three of their last four — after their 17-14 win against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Watching Tom Brady last night was excruciating — and I had long concluded that these rumors that he is going to go play for San Francisco or Las Vegas next year as a joke since he is a 45-year old QB with diminishing skills (but the Raiders may still decide to bring him here on as an attraction on the strip). And Tennessee was brutal for us on Saturday. But yet, here we go with the darn Indianapolis Colts tonight (in a situation I have been thinking about for weeks). I know interim head coach Jeff Saturday is a joke. But allow me to offer the gentle reminder that we are betting numbers rather than teams. We have Monday Night Football home dog getting more than a field goal coming off the biggest blown lead in NFL history after going into halftime with a 33-0 lead against the Vikings — and, oh, it’s against a Brandon Staley-coached team. And, by the way, Nick Foles may be an upgrade at quarterback for Indianapolis because he can at least throw the football down the field still (as opposed to Matt Ryan). Success in sports gambling requires being willing to invest in bad teams (with the point spread, of course). In the NFL right now, it is pretty much all bad teams, in one way or another. If one wants to only invest in "good" NFL teams, well, then that is a recipe for passing on the entire card. If you need to hold your nose and look away, I don’t blame you. The Rams played great yesterday after being awful for us on Monday. These bad teams are also fickle. Irrespective of Jeff Saturday still deluding himself into thinking he still has a chance to get another head coaching job, the Colts players are embarrassed. It was only two weeks ago when they got demolished by a 33-0 score in the fourth quarter alone against Dallas. This team has been a laughing stock on national television for two straight weeks — so we are talking about professional pride at this point. As it is, the Colts have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road. They did cover the point spread for the first time in their last three games against Minnesota — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home to Lucas Oil Stadium where they are outgaining their opponents in yardage. Indianapolis is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 home games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The defense has played well for long stretches before collapsing in the second half — but they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. The Indy defense ranks 11th in the NFL according to the Defensive DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders — and they improve to 10th in the league when using their weighted numbers that privilege recent results. Foles is making just his second start in over two years — but he held his own for Chicago last year by completing 24 of 35 passes for 250 yards while averaging 7.1 Yards-Per-Attempt in a 25-24 victory against Seattle which included him orchestrating a late fourth quarter drive. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in December. Los Angeles is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December. The inconsistent Chargers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Los Angeles is 4-3 on the road but still getting outgained in yardage. The defense ranks 22nd in the NFL in weighted Defensive DVOA. They rank 28th in Run Defense DVOA — and that unit is not getting any help from an offense that has passed the ball 51 times per game in their last four games. I can’t wait to watch Justin Herbert play for Sean Payton. In the meantime, he is struggling under offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. The Chargers are bottom-six in Early Down Success Rate and Early Down Efficiency which is then asking Herbert to bail them out too often on third-and-long. In their last three games, Los Angeles is scoring only 20.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Colts have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their 7 games this season getting 3.5 or more points including both of their games at home under those circumstances. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Indianapolis Colts (482) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (481). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (480). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (6-8) has lost two games in a row after their 34-23 loss to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Arizona (4-10) has lost four games in a row after their 24-15 loss at Denver as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay has lost six of their last nine games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games. But the books still have them as a road favorite in the touchdown range. It may look easy for many to simply take the home underdog out of principle — but let’s not take the cheese. This Buccaneers team is going to continue to work hard with the playoffs — and an automatic home game in the first round by winning the NFC South — still in their control. Tampa Bay actually outgained the Bengals last week by 159 net yards. They gained 396 yards against the stout Cincinnati defense with Tom Brady completing 30 of 44 passes for 312 yards with two touchdown passes. It was the Buccaneers’ -3 net turnover margin that played a big role in their loss. Tampa Bay held the Bengals’ offense to just 237 total yards — and they are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after holding their last opponent to no more than 250 yards. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss at home — and they are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a double-digit loss at home. The deeper metrics indicate that the Buccaneers should be seeing better results than their win-loss record indicates. They are outgaining their opponents by +28.0 net Yards-Per-Game. They rank 9th in the league in DVOA Defense using the analytics at Football Outsiders with top-12 ranks against both the run and the pass. They have given up 28.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three games — but they held those three opponents to just 313.0 YPG. On the road, they are outgaining their opponents in yardage while holding their home hosts to 317.0 YPG which is resulting in only 18.3 PPG. Despite their recent losing streak, Tampa Bay has outgained their last three opponents by +43.0 net YPG. Injuries have hit this team hard this season — especially on offense with their offensive line and their wide receiving corps. But this makeshift offensive line is starting to play better at this point of the season — and Brady finally has all his weapons back in the receiving game. Running the football has been an issue — but they are now getting productivity from rookie Rachaad White has 291 rushing yards in the last five games on 69 carries. Here now comes this Cardinals team that ranks 29th in Defensive DVOA against the run — and they allow opposing rushers to average 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Arizona is a dumpster fire of a hot mess — to mix some metaphors. General manager Steve Keim is on a leave of absence. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury let it slip this week that he wants out of the organization with broken relationships with Keim, the owner, and Kyler Murray (who is out for perhaps the next year with his torn ACL). The team is a M*A*S*H unit with a bevy of injuries on both sides of the football that has exposed an already aging roster. And with the concussion to Colt McCoy (who is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league), the Cardinals have to turn to Trace McSorley under center. The former Penn State quarterback is very limited in his skill set after being mostly a runner in college. He completed only 7 of 15 passes for 95 yards last week coming in after McCoy was knocked out of the game — and he threw two interceptions. In the four NFL games he has played, he has completed only 51.7% of his 29 career passes with three interceptions and no touchdowns. He averages only 5.7 yards-per-attempt. The Buccaneers will be able to put eight defenders in the box to stop the run while daring McSorley to beat them in the passing game. This is all very bad news for an offense that was only scoring 15.5 PPG in their last four games before having to turn to their third-string quarterback. To compound matters, Arizona is 1-6 at home where they are getting outscored by -7.3 PPG and outgained by -64.4 net YPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: To put it kindly, Kingsbury is not one of the best coaches in the NFL. It is telling that the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games at home in the second half of the season. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in the second half of the season. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (473). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (6-8) has won three of their last four games after their 24-16 upset win at Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Las Vegas (6-8) has won four of their last five games after their 30-24 win against New England as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders needed one of biggest boneheaded plays in the history of the NFL to survive last week’s game at home against the Patriots — but the final nail to end their playoff hopes will probably be struck tonight. Las Vegas beat New England last week on Chandler Jones’ 48-yard fumble recovery after the Patriots’ Jacoby Meyers’ ill-advised lateral despite that game looking destined for overtime. The Raiders will not enjoy tonight’s weather in Pittsburgh with temperates in the single digits and the wind chill projected at -11. This team left Las Vegas weather that will be in the 50s here today — and, of course, they play their home games in the domed and air-conditioned Allegiant Stadium. Quarterback Derek Carr simply does not have much experience playing in cold weather in his career even going back to his college days at Fresno State. As it is, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game at home where both teams scored 24 or more points. They gave up 206 rushing yards to the Patriots while getting outrushed by 135 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after getting outrushed by 75 or more yards. And while Las Vegas has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. Carr has only won one game as a starting quarterback on the road in a prime-time game in his career. Despite having Davante Adams as his top wide receiver this season, he has only thrown for over 300 yards once this year. Carr’s unwillingness to scramble also limits his effectiveness at this point in his career. In his last seven games, he has run the ball only six times for 21 yards despite still being pretty adept with his feet. He has not rushed for a red zone touchdown in two years — making it easier for the opposing defense since he represents virtually zero threat to take off with the ball. The Raiders have turned the ball over seven times in their last four games — and Carr is responsible for six interceptions during that stretch. And then there is the Raiders' defense which is the only team in the league this season to allow opposing quarterbacks to register a Passer Rating of over 100. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Raiders have also failed to cover the points spread in 12 of their last 15 games against teams with a losing record. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record. With T.J. Watt healthy and back on the field, the Steelers are playing a stout defense that has held their last four opponents to just 16.3 Points-Per-Game and 278.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Pittsburgh outgained the Panthers last week by +116 net yards while holding them to just 209 total yards. They ran the ball 42 times for 156 yards which helped them control time of possession for 36:11 minutes — and Pittsburgh is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. Running back Damien Harris has rushed for five touchdowns in his last five games. And after Mitchell Trubisky led them to victory last week, the team gets back Kenny Pickett under center tonight who has won four of his last five starts when able to complete the game. The rookie is doing a great job of managing games — he has not thrown an interception in five straight games and 129 straight throws. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: I was taking Pittsburgh in this game even before the sad news regarding the death of Steelers’ legend Franco Harris. The NFL had already planned a big celebration recognizing the 50th anniversary of Harris’ “immaculate reception” touchdown catch against the Raiders — and Pittsburgh is inducting Harris into their Hall of Fame tonight. Now emotions will be heavy after Harris died in his sleep Wednesday night (after a day full of interviews plugging tonight’s festivities). Teams respond to moments like this. When Walter Payton died in 1999, the Chicago Bears traveled to Green Bay and upset the Packers by a 14-13 score despite being a 9-point underdog and having not won at Lambeau Field since 1993. With so many former players in attendance tonight, head coach Mike Tomlin will impart the value this organization puts on tradition — and it will be an energized crowd to get one for Franco. 25* NFL Network Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (464) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (463). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (7-7) has lost four games in a row after their 17-14 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Houston (1-12-1) has lost nine games in a row after their 30-24 loss in overtime against Kansas City as a 14.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS MINUS THE POINTS: Despite the recent slide, Tennessee can still retain a one-game lead in the AFC South race with a victory this afternoon. The Titans will have to accomplish this feat without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill who is out perhaps the season with an ankle injury — so it will be rookie Malik Willis under center. Regardless, this is going to be the Derrick Henry show today. The bell-cow running back loves playing against the Texans. In his last four games against Houston, Henry has run the ball 120 times for 892 rushing yards — that is an average of 220 rushing Yards-Per-Game on 30 carries per contest. He is averaging 7.4 Yards-Per-Carry in those last four games -- and he has scored nine touchdowns in those contests. He should feast once again against a Texans-run defense that ranks second-to-last in the NFL in DVOA Run Defense using the analytics at Football Outsiders. Houston allows 148 rushing YPG on 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road. And while the Titans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Tennessee returns home where they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Titans have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow AFC South rivals. Houston has played Dallas and Kansas City to close games in the last two weeks — but they are 8-18-2 ATS in their last 28 games after a point spread win. The Texans took the Chiefs to overtime last week despite surrendering 502 total yards and getting outgained by -283 net yards. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards. The Texans are splitting time at quarterback between Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel — but they combined to pass for only 125 yards last week. Houston only generated 219 total yards against Kansas City — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after failing to gain more than 250 yards in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. Houston is getting outgained by -107.5 net YPG this season. On the road, they are getting outscored by -6.8 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games as an underdog of seven points or less. In their last three games, they are getting outscored by -7.7 PPG and getting outgained by -127 net YPG. The Texans are riddled with injuries — headlined by rookie running back Dameon Pierce and wide receiver Nico Collins being out for this game. Houston will struggle to run the ball against this Titans defense led by Jeffery Simmons which is the top-rated against the run according to the DVOA metrics. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against AFC rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans will be looking to avenge a 17-10 loss at home to the Titans on October 30th in a game that Henry rushed for 219 yards with two touchdowns. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when motivated with revenge. Furthermore, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Tennessee has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC South Game of the Year with the Tennessee Titans (464) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (463). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (229) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (230) in the Independence Bowl. THE SITUATION: UL-Louisiana (6-6) has won two of their last three games after their 41-13 win at Texas State as a 5-point favorite on November 26th. Houston (7-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 37-30 upset loss to Tulsa as a 13-point favorite on November 26th. This game will be played at Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINTS: It has been a disappointing season for the Cougars who entered the season as one of the favorites to win the American Athletic Conference and a dark horse favorite to represent the Group of Five in a New Years Six Bowl Game. But after returning 13 starters from their 12-2 campaign last year,             the Cougars underperformed due mostly to a defense that gave up 33.5 Points-Per-Game and 431.3 total Yards-Per-Game — a -13.1 net PPG and -130.2 net YPG drop from a season ago. The offense remained potent behind senior quarterback Clayton Thune — but for a team that passes the ball at the 12th highest rate in the nation, the weather conditions in Shreveport this afternoon will not be conducive to chucking the ball around 40 or more times. The temperature will be in the mid-20s with winds gusting in the 13-14 miles per hour range. The hardened ball with cold hands and winds impacting the trajectory of thrown passes impacts the ability to successfully execute the intermediate to long passing game — and the Ragin’ Cajuns will know this and be able to adapt. Thune complete 26 of 47 passes for 386 yards in the losing effort to the Golden Hurricane — but Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games on the road after passing for at least 375 yards in their last contest. The Cougars averaged 7.23 Yards-Per-Play while gaining 506 total yards against Tulsa — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last game and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field. The Cougars have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in bowl games — and head coach Dana Holgorsen’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of his 9 bowl games. UL-Louisiana has a 7-3 straight-up record in bowl games. They should be very motivated to play well close to home against a higher-profile team from the American Athletic Conference. They lost all three of their games decided by one-scoring possession — so they could have had eight or even nine wins with a few more breaks. The Ragin’ Cajuns have some players opting out mostly on offense — but they will have sophomore quarterback Chase Fields under center after he missed several games in the middle of the year. He did return at the end of the season — and he completed 16 of 26 passes for 187 yards with two touchdown passes while leading the offense to 41 points. This game is important for the program as they build for next season — and Fields should have success against this Cougars' defense. Houston ranks 87th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. They were 119th in the FBS by allowing 2.92 net points per drive — and they ranked 83rd in the nation in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate Allowed. The strength of the Ragin’ Cajuns is probably their secondary which remains at full strength for this contest. UL-Lafayette held the Bobcats to just 133 passing yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last game. The Ragin’ Cajuns rank 21st in the nation in Opponent  Pass Success Rate Allowed — and they were graded as the 12th best coverage secondary by Pro Football Focus. They also rank 45th in the FBS in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate. UL-Lafayette has covered the pint spray in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against non-conference opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored. 10* CFB Independence Bowl ESPN Special with the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (229) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (230). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Jets (452) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (451). THE SITUATION: New York (7-7) has lost three games in a row after their 20-17 upset loss against Detroit as a 2-point favorite last Sunday. Jacksonville (6-8) has won two straight and three of their last four after their 40-38 upset win in overtime against Dallas as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Jaguars have registered two straight upset victories after pulling the upset on the road in Tennessee against the Titans the previous week. But Jacksonville is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after covering the point spread in two straight games. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has received plenty of accolades this week after engineering that upset win against the Cowboys. He is completing 70% of his lasses since Week Nine after completing 27 of 42 passes for 318 yards and four touchdowns against the Dallas defense. But Jacksonville is 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 games after passing for 250 or more yards in their last contest. And while the Jaguars have leaned heavily on Lawrence by asking him to throw 42 passes in two straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after attempting 40 or more passes in two straight games. The lack of a reliable rushing game will hurt Jacksonville tonight. While they rank 6th in the NFL in Passing DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders, they fall to 17th in Rushing DVOA. Making matters worse is the season-ending injury to starting left tackle, Cam Robinson. To compound matters, the weather tonight will hurt the ability of this team to execute in the passing game. The weather will be in the low-40s which makes it harder on receivers (especially when used to Florida weather) to hold on to the football. Even worse, the winds will start in the 15 miles per hour range with gusts adding perhaps another 15-20 MPH — and that will be the challenge for Lawrence who does not have experience in these conditions. Lawrence is dealing with a toe injury that the cold weather may exacerbate. The play of the Jaguars’ defense is a concern as well. They allowed 397 total yards last week with 154 of those yards coming on the ground. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last game — and they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 350 or more total yards. The Jaguars rank 28th in Defensive DVOA — and they have allowed their last three opponents to score 32.0 PPG and generate 399.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Jacksonville will now be without two of their best defensive players with linebacker Travon Walker (the top pick in the NFL draft) and defensive end Foley Fatukasi out for tonight’s game. Now the Jags play their third game on the road in their last four games on the road and on a short week under bad conditions for a Florida team. They are just 2-6 on the road while getting outgained by 55.9 net YPG. Jacksonville is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. New York has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. Zach Wilson will be under center again for this game — and while I am nowhere close to being sold on this guy, he did play well against the Lions while looking relaxed on the sidelines despite getting demoted a few weeks ago for Mike White who is now out with his broken ribs. Wilson completed 18 of 35 passes for 317 yards with two touchdown passes and only one interception — and the Jets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for 250 or more yards in their last game. Given the conditions tonight, head coach Robert Saleh will not let offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur ask much of Wilson in the passing game. The Jets will lean on their outstanding defense tonight which ranks 3rd in the NFL in weighted DVOA that prioritizes the more recent results. New York also gets their stud defensive tackle Quinnen Williams back after he did not play last week. The Lions gained 359 total yards last week — but the Jets have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. The Jets only ran for 50 yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after not rushing for more than 50 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow AFC foes. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the New York Jets (452) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Liberty Flames (224) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (223) in the Boca Raton Bowl. THE SITUATION: Liberty (8-4) has lost three games in a row after a 49-14 upset loss at home against New Mexico State as a 24-point favorite on November 26th. Toledo (8-5) won the Mid-American Conference Championship Game in a 17-7 victory against Ohio as a 3.5-point favorite on December 3rd. This game will be played at FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FLAMES PLUS THE POINTS: Liberty limped into the postseason getting upset in three straight games at Connecticut and Virginia Tech before laying an egg at home by five touchdowns as a 24-point favorite. Those losses against the Huskies and Hokies were just by four combined points before that debacle against the Aggies. Since that contest, head coach Hugh Freeze left to take the head coaching job at Auburn. Linebackers coach and co-defensive coordinator Josh Aldridge serves as the interim head coach before Jamey Chadwell takes over the program after serving as the Coastal Carolina coach. Pulling the upset tonight will also Liberty to end the season on a positive note after the disappointing end to the season. The Flames are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. And while they allowed New Mexico State to rush for 214 yards, they are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing 200 or more rushing yards in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with two or more weeks of rest. Liberty has been a solid team playing away from home — they are 4-2 on the road with an average scoring margin of +5.4 Points-Per-Game. They outgain their opponents playing away from home by +79.8 net Yards-Per-Game. The Flames have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games as an underdog. Toledo dominated Ohio in the MAC Championship Game by outgaining them by +128 net yards. But despite scoring 32.0 PPG this season, they have topped the 30-point mark just once in their last six games. The Rockets have a good defense — but they are vulnerable to giving up big plays. Toledo ranks 114th in Opponent Rush Explosiveness Allowed and 66th in Opponent Pass Explosiveness Allowed. They were 5-1 when playing at home — but in their seven games on the road, they were just 3-4 while getting outscored by -5.5 PPG. The Rockets' offense will be challenged by a Flames defense that ranks 8th in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. Liberty has been stout against both the run and the pass — they rank 15th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 6th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. They also rank 4th in Defensive Havoc Rate while leading the nation by averaging 9.1 tackles-for-loss per game and tied for third in the nation with 41 sacks. Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against non-conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight bowl games under head coach Jason Candle.

FINAL TAKE: Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December. Liberty has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games in December. 10* CFB Boca Raton Bowl ESPN Special with the Liberty Flames (224) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (223). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Jose Spartans (222) minus the points versus the Eastern Michigan Eagles (221) in the Famous Potato Idaho Bowl. THE SITUATION: San Jose State (7-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 27-14 win against Hawai’i as a 16-point favorite on November 26th. Eastern Michigan (8-4) has won three games in a row after their 38-19 upset win against Central Michigan as a 1.5-point underdog on November 25th. This game is being played at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS THE POINTS: This has been an emotional season for San Jose State after freshman running back Cameron Wright was killed crossing the street on an e-scooter in late October. It is probably not a coincidence that the Spartans ended the season failing to cover the point spread in six straight games. But this group can put a bow on their season with a successful effort in their bowl game — and it would be the first bowl victory for this program since 2015. The last thing I considered before investing in this game was the temperates in Boise being in the low-30s. How would this Bay Area team deal with the cold conditions? San Jose State played at Utah State on November 19th a month ago with the temperatures in Logan dropping into the 20s — and they lost 35-31 as a 1.5-point underdog. But former Hawai’i quarterback Chevan Cordeiro was effective under center by completing 20 of 30 passes for 257 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. Cordeiro is a dual-threat who ran for 508 yards from scrambles this year — so I think this team will handle the weather just fine. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a double-digit win against a conference rival. The Spartans’ defense will certainly travel and show up in the cold weather — they held their opponents to 20.3 Points-Per-Game this season. Led by defensive linemen Viliami Fehoko and Cade Hall, San Jose State finished 14th in the nation in Havoc Rate while generating 36 sacks, ranking 5th in the nation. The Spartans ranked 20th in the nation in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate. Head coach Brent Brennan brings his entire roster to Boise with no opt-outs or players in the transfer portal — and he has a healthy team. San Jose State thrives in the turnover department with a +12 net turnover margin on the season. Cordeiro protects the football with only four interceptions this year. They did not force a turnover against the Rainbow Warriors — but they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after not committing a turnover. They have not committed more than one turnover in a game this entire season — and they have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games after not committing more than one turnover in two more games in a row. Additionally, the Spartans have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in December — and they are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 games against teams with a winning record. Eastern Michigan got outgained in yardage this season — but they benefited from a 5-1 record in games decided by one-scoring possession to reach eight wins. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on the road after a win at home against a Mid-American Conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a win by 17 or more points. They are just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a point-spread victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games after scoring at least 37 or more points in their last contest. They have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. And while they held the Chippewas to only 175 yards in their last game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. Eastern Michigan will struggle to protect quarterback Taylor Powell — they ranked 85th in Pass Protection while giving up 30 sacks. On defense, they ranked 129th in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against non-conference opponents. San Jose State has covered the point spread in 31 of their last 46 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Famous Idaho Potation Bowl ESPN Special with the San Jose Spartans (222) minus the points versus the Eastern Michigan Eagles (221). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (531) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (532). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-9) snapped their six-game losing streak with their 17-16 upset win at home against Las Vegas as a 6-point underdog on December 8th. Green Bay (5-8) ended their two-game losing streak with their 28-19 victory at Chicago as a 3.5-point favorite on December 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: The “handicapper” technical play is probably with Green Bay tonight — but I am relenting to my skepticism of that perspective for this one. Are the bookies telling us to take Green Bay with what I consider an overly high spread — or are the oddsmakers simply reacting to an overvalued Packers team by the market? I think it’s the latter. Green Bay has won only twice by more than a field goal this season — and both victories came against the Bears. While they are technically still alive in the NFC wildcard race, they would need a complete collapse from several teams ahead of them in the standings while winning out their final four games. Call me skeptical that this situation inspires Aaron Rodgers who has been in “don’t blame me” mode since training camp started. Even in their victory against Chicago two weeks ago, the Packers got outgained by -52 net yards after allowing the meager Bears offense to generate 409 total yards. It was a +3 net turnover margin that helped them win that game. With injuries to left tackle David Bakhtiari and linebacker Rashon Gary, this team is missing two of their best players moving forward. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Green Bay has allowed 27 or more points in three of their last four games and six of their last nine. In their last three contests, they are surrendering 439.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in their opponents scoring 28.7 Points-Per-Game. The Packers return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games this season. While the Packers got the benefit of the bye, I am not sure how helpful that is this late in the season for a Super Bowl contender that is now likely out of the playoffs. Los Angeles has extra time to rest and prepare as well coming off the Thursday game last week. Baker Mayfield gets the start at quarterback after orchestrating the Hollywood-ending comeback victory against the Raiders. He should have a much better feel for Sean McVay’s offense now. This has been a lost season for the defending champions — and, for the record, I thought they were the most vulnerable reigning champion to suffer a hangover from a Super Bowl win in at least 20 years. But now I think the acquisition of Mayfield brings some life and energy to this team who can now revel in the role of the spoiler on national television. I’m not the biggest Mayfield fan — but it is hard to deny that he plays better in the tole of the feisty underdog. He also demonstrated plenty of heart and toughness playing through several injuries for Cleveland last year. He’s healthy now — and finally playing for a non-dysfunctional NFL organization for the first time in his career. McVay still wants to center his play-calling on the run game — and he should have success against this Packers run defense that ranks last in the league missing the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders. Cam Akers is showing signs of life with 200 rushing yards in the last four weeks with three touchdowns.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games played in December. Look for them to keep this game close with McVay embracing the rare opportunity to play the spoiler role. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Rams (531) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (219) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (220) in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. THE SITUATION: Connecticut (6-6) was on a three-game winning streak before losing at Army by a 34-17 score as a 10.5-point underdog on November 19th. Marshall (8-4) has won four games in a row after their 28-23 victory against Georgia State as a 6.5-point favorite on November 26th. This game is being played at Brooks Stadium in Conway, South Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Connecticut vastly overachieved this season under first-year head coach Jim Mora. The Huskies only won one game last year after not playing in 2020 because of COVID. Mora inherited a mess — but the former Atlanta Falcons and UCLA head coach brought a sense of professionalism to the program. This is an important game for his football time — not only are they building momentum for next season, but this game will also help with recruiting. Expect a spirited effort from the double-digit underdogs. As it is, Connecticut has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Huskies closed out their season winning five of their last seven games — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after winning five of their last seven games. They had covered the point spread in seven games in a row before their loss to Army — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Connecticut played an ambitious schedule this year as an independent with games against Michigan and Fresno State. Mora will use this game for the continued development of freshman quarterback Zion Turner. He is complemented by freshman running back Victor Rosa who ran for 561 yards and nine touchdowns. The Huskies enter this game at nearly full strength. No player is opting out for this game (a bowl game advantage for a program lacking NFL talent) — and only running back Nate Carter entered the transfer portal after losing out in playing time to Rosa. Wide receivers Cam Ross and Keenan Marion have been injured but might be able to return for this game. Marshall may be due for a letdown against a less-than-inspiring opponent. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning four games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last six games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contents. And while the Thundering Herd surrendered 291 passing yards to the Panthers in their last game, they have then failed to cover the points spread in 4 straight games after allowing 280 or more passing yards in their last game. Marshall has an outstanding defense that held their opponents to just 16.2 Points-Per-Game. But they benefited from winning three of their four games decided by one scoring possession. They were also fortunate to end the season with a +7 net turnover margin. The Thundering Herd have not committed a turnover in two straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing a game where they did not commit more than one turnover. They have also failed to cover the points spread in 35 of their last 51 games after not committing more than one turnover in two straight games. Marshall can struggle to score — they rank 127th in the nation by scoring just 2.7 points per drive inside their opponents' 40-yard line.

FINAL TAKE: The Thundering Herd have doled to cover the points spread in 5 straight games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as a favorite laying 10.5 to 21 points. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog. 10* CFB Myrtle Beach Bowl ESPN Special with the Connecticut Huskies (219) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (220). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (303) plus the points versus the Washington Commanders (304). THE SITUATION: New York (7-5-1) is winless in their last four games after their 48-22 loss to Philadelphia as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Washington (7-5-1) is unbeaten in their last four games after their 20-20 tie with the Giants as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago on December 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: After getting embarrassed last win in Philadelphia, New York should respond with a strong effort against an opponent they are very familiar with after just playing them two weeks ago. The Giants have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by 14 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. New York got torched for 253 rushing yards by Philadelphia — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last game. The Giants go back on the road where they are only allowing 22.8 Points-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road. Washington is just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a point-spread victory. They have the benefit of the bye for this rematch — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with an extra week of rest and preparation. They get the Giants at home this time — but they are only scoring 18.7 PPG and averaging 326.0 total YPG. The Commanders are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in December — and they are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games against NFC East rivals. The Washington defense is outstanding — but they are vulnerable against effective passing attacks as they rank just 14th against the pass using the DVOA Defensive Ratings at Football Outsiders. The Giants rank 10th in Offensive DVOA — and they are 10th in the league in Passing DVOA despite the conventional wisdom surrounding quarterback Daniel Jones.

FINAL TAKE: New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and Washington is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with New York Giants (303) plus the points versus the Washington Commanders (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (319) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (320). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (5-8) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 16-14 upset loss against Baltimore as a 1.5-point favorite last Sunday. Carolina (5-8) has won two straight and three of their last four games after a 30-24 upset win in Seattle as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh endured a -2 net turnover last week against their arch-rivals — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. And while they only gained 65 yards on the ground against the stout Ravens run defense, they are then 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The Steelers have still rushed for 471 yards in their last three games for a robust 157 rushing Yards-Per-Game average. Pittsburgh has held six of their last eight opponents to 18 or fewer points. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. With rookie Kenny Pickett out for this game, head coach Mike Tomlin turns back to Mitchell Trubisky under center — and the Steelers probably still have the edge at quarterback against the Panthers’ Sam Darnold. He is completing only 58% of his passes and averaging 148 passing Yards-Per-Game since taking over as the starter. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Now the Panthers return home where they are just 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Carolina has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home when favored. Furthermore, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record — and they are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers (319) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (320). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (217) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (218) in the Frisco Bowl. THE SITUATION: North Texas (7-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 48-27 loss to UTSA in the Conference USA Championship Game as an 8-point underdog on December 2nd. Boise State (9-4) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 28-16 upset loss to Fresno State as a 3-point favorite in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game on December 3rd. This game will be played at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MEAN GREEN PLUS THE POINTS: North Texas should be plenty motivated to play well in this game. After they failed to stay close with the Roadrunners in their first trip to the Conference USA Championship Game under Sean Littrell, the administration fired him in his seventh year with the program. Defensive coordinator Phil Bennett serves as the interim head coach before Washington State offensive coordinator, Eric Morris, takes over as the new face of the program. The team is in good hands under Bennett who was previously the head coach at SMU. The Mean Green lost all five of their bowl games under Littrell — this group would love to erase that mark. They are led by their 29-year-old quarterback Austin Aune who is entering the NFL draft after this game but still decided to play in it. This provides the former New York Yankees prospect an opportunity to audition for an NFL team who may not be drafting their next starting QB but who are looking for a capable backup to bolster their quarterback room. For the love of God after handicapping the roster attrition for the 12 teams that played in bowl games today, North Texas enters this game with zero opt-outs, zero players in the transfer portal, and a healthy roster. That’s not why I am investing in them, but it doesn’t hurt. The Mean Green have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a loss by 20 or more points. And while they gave up 571 total yards to UTSA, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing 450 or more yards in their last contest. They went into halftime of that game trailing by a 24-10 score — but they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 road games after allowing 24 or more points in the first half of their previous game. Aune is a gunslinger who passed for over 3300 yards with 32 touchdown passes. He is complemented by a three-headed monster in the backfield with Ikaika Ragsdale, Ayo Adeyi, and Oscar Adaway III helping the team generate 202 rushing Yards-Per-Game, ranking in the top 25 in the nation. The Mean Green are happy to get into a scoring fest. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a contest where 70 or more combined points were scored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Boise State is playing in its first bowl game since 2019 after opting out of the postseason in each of the last two seasons. They only gained 321 yards in their loss to Fresno State in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. They won seven of their final nine games after head coach Andy Avalos fired offensive coordinator Tim Plough and benched senior quarterback Hank Bachmeier for Taylor Green. The 6’6 freshman offers a dual threat as he averaged 40.5 rushing YPG with his legs. But he only generated 194.4 passing YPG in the air and may not have the chops just yet to outduel Aune. The Broncos lean on their defense — they held the Bulldogs to only 72 rushing yards and 245 total yards. But they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in non-conference play — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in December. North Texas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CFB Frisco Bowl ESPN Special with the North Texas Mean Green (217) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (310) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (309). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (10-3) has won four games in a row after their 20-12 victory against the New York Jets as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.  Miami (8-5) has lost two games in a row after their 23-17 upset loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: How the Dolphins will handle the weather has received plenty of attention in the media this week. As of the weather reports Friday night, the low temperature expected Saturday night in Buffalo is 26 degrees with modest winds from 5-10 miles per hour. And while up to 24 inches of snow is expected, most of that should have already taken place by tomorrow night. There may be some flurries — but Tua Tagovailoa will probably not be playing on snow, so his experience with the Alabama winters will offer him some familiarity. Yes, I am worried about how Tagovailoa and his team will handle the cold weather. In his two previous starts in December and January, Tagovailoa completed only 55.2% of his passes while averaging just 5.9 yards-per-attempt and posting a loss Passer Rating of 58.8. Miami got outscored by 61 combined points in those two games. But what I am more concerned about with this Dolphins team is the travel grind they have been on that has led to this chilly environment as their final destination for a three-game road trip. Miami has spent the last two weeks in California playing in San Francisco and Los Angeles. That is a challenging road trip for any NFL team — but it is probably even worse for a southern team who felt the need to use heaters on the sidelines to adjust to the 50-degree weather in LA last week. Even more concerning is the defensive adjustment that the 49ers made against the Mike McDaniel passing attack. While most teams have played zone coverages to account for the speed of Miami wide receivers Tyreke Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the Niners played man-to-man coverage on these wideouts while pressuring them on the line of scrimmage and pushing them off their quick slant passing routes that Tagovailoa has feasted on this season. Tagovailoa thrives in this style of play given his ultra-quick release and sharp accuracy — but he gets into trouble if he has to turn to his second or third options. The Chargers copied this approach last week — and it is something the Bills are most likely going to continue. In his last two games, Tagovailoa has completed only 28 of 61 passes for a 45.9% completed percentage with just 440 passing yards, a lower 7.2 YPA average, and five sacks. Frankly, the Dolphins might be finally getting exposed as a solid but unspectacular team. They are only outscoring their opponents by +0.3 PPG and outgaining them by +17.0 net YPG. They have +3 net close wins decided by one scoring possession. Their five-game winning streak was all against teams currently with losing records with a combined 20-46-1 mark. When Detroit is the team with the best record during a five-game hot streak, perhaps you are a beneficiary of a favorable schedule? On the road, Miami is getting outscored by -6.5 PPG while allowing 31.4 PPG and 387.1 YPG.  The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. Injuries have hit this team hard in the defensive secondary. Safety Brandon Jones and cornerback Nik Needham are both out the season while cornerback Byron Jones has been on the PUP list since July. Now safety Eric Rowe and cornerback Elijah Campbell are out for this game with injuries challenging the team’s depth — and that is a bad way to face Josh Allen. Buffalo is 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games after a point-spread loss. And while they have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. The Bills miss Von Miller who is out the season with a torn ACL — but this team stocked up with defensive linemen in the offseason providing them the depth to compensate for injuries. The Buffalo defense is allowing only 14.4 PPG and 292.3 YPG in their last three games — and they have only one touchdown in each of their last two games. The Bills are outscoring their opponents at home by +16.8 PPG due to an explosive offense that scores 31.2 PPG and generates 410.6 total YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45-point range. This team will embrace the cold weather — and Allen’s experience in chilly weather from his collegiate experience at Wyoming is a better preparation for what he will face than Tagovailoa’s winter experiences in Alabama. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: Miami is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games in Buffalo against the Bills. The Bills will be motivated to avenge their 21-19 loss in the Miami heat on September 25th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a loss by 7 points or less. 25* AFC East Game of the Year with the Buffalo Bills (310) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.