At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Central Florida Knights (271) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (272) in the Boca Raton Bowl. THE SITUATION: Central Florida (6-3) enters this bowl game coming off a 58-46 win at South Florida on November 27th as a 25-point favorite. BYU (10-1) rebounded from their 22-17 loss at Coastal Carolina to defeat San Diego State by a 28-14 score on December 12th as a 16.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Central Florida has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. And while UCF raced out to a 31-14 halftime lead against the Bulls, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after leading by at least 17 points in the first half of their last game. The Knights saw 17 players opt-out from the team by October either from COVID concerns or legal problems — but head coach Josh Heupel has been able to roll with it with the deep roster he has assembled. Wide receiver Marlon Williams opted-out for this game to prepare for the NFL — but this group looks pretty much intact from the one that lost to Cincinnati by just three points. Heupel is 41-6 in his three seasons as the head coach of this program. It is rare that his team is not in a position to win in the fourth quarter. The Regression Gods were on his side early in his career here as the Knights enjoyed a five-game winning streak in games decided by one scoring possession during their 25-game unbeaten streak in 2017-18. The fickle Regression Gods were bound to make their presence known — and UCF lost all three of their games last year by seven combined points. These Gods were not done with the Knights this season as their three losses to Tulsa, Memphis, and Cincinnati were by just 12 combined points. UCF is now 1-7 in their last eight games decided by one scoring possession under Heupel. So don’t bet the money-line (PS: don’t do that anyway) — grab the points and be happy with cashing a winning ticket. The Knights have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog. They also have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 games against teams outside the American Athletic Conference, they have covered the point spread in 5 of these games. Led by sophomore quarterback Dillon Gabriel, UCF is second in the nation by averaging 585.6 total Yards-Per-Game — and they are fifth in the nation with a 44.3 PPG scoring average. Gabriel has seven games where he has passed for at least 300 yards — and he topped 400 passing yards in four of those games. BYU has thrived in being opportunistic on defense — they are 18th in the nation with a +0.82 net turnover margin. But the Knights have not turned the ball over more than once in six straight games. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning at least four or five of their last six games. And while BYU has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Additionally, the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game, BYU is just 1-3-1 ATS. Junior QB Zach Wilson did pass for 310 yards with three touchdowns against the Aztecs — but they are just 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the total set at 70 or higher — and they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. BYU has failed to cover the point spread 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: The laptops love this BYU team — but those analytics are relying on limited data from non-conference games that serves to vet out relative conference strength (already the college basketball quantitative projections are much better given the much larger sample size even by December). Central Florida has a geographical edge with a short trip from Orlando to Boca Raton. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 bowl games. 10* CFB Boca Raton Bowl ESPN Special with the Central Florida Knights (271) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (270) plus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (269) in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. THE SITUATION: Nevada (6-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 30-20 upset loss against San Jose State (in the Spartans’ temporary home in La Vegas) as a 2.5-point favorite on December 11th. Tulane (6-5) has won four of their last five games after their 35-21 win over Memphis as a 3.5-point favorite on December 5th. This game is played on Boise State’s neutral blue field in Idaho.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK PLUS THE POINTS: Head coach Jay Norvell should have his team ready to play in this game as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after suffering an upset loss against a conference rival — and this includes them covering the point spread in these last three situations. Nevada has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against a loss to a Mountain West foe. Additionally, the Wolf Pack is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Nevada is led by sophomore quarterback Carson Strong who is completing 69.4% of his passes for 2587 yards. The Wolf Pack did surrender 506 yards against the Spartans in their last game — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Norvell’s teams usually play well in situations like this. Nevada has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. They are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games in December. Additionally, the Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as an underdog — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games when they are an underdog on a neutral field. Tulane has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home. The Green Wave have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win against an American Athletic Conference opponent. Head coach Willie Fritz had to deal with instability in his coaching staff on both sides of the ball in preparation for this game. Offensive coordinator Will Hall left the program to take the head coaching gig at Southern Miss. Fritz dismissed defensive coordinator Jeff Curtis after the Memphis game. Tulane is also dealing with attrition on their defensive line with defensive tackles De’Andre Williams and Jeffery Johnson out for this game with injuries while Cameron Sample is questionable. The Green Wave registered 36 sacks this season but 10 of them were from another five came from Sample — and Williams is the straw that stirs the drink in the middle. Despite their winning record, Tulane was outgained by -23.1 net YPG. And in their six games away from Orleans on the road, the Green Wave were outgained by -92.5 net YPG. The Tulane pass rush has been their only salvation from a porous pass defense that ranks 115th in the nation by allowing 279.5 passing YPG. And this deficiency plays right into the hands of Nevada who rank 9th in the nation by averaging 325.1 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Nevada lost a close game to Ohio in last year’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl by a 30-21 score — so not only is this team familiar with the blue field in Boise but they have the opportunity to redeem themselves from that loss. The Wolf Pack are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games. Tulane has won their last two bowl games under Fritz so the urgency of this opportunity may not be as great. 10* CFB Famous Idaho Potato Bowl ESPN Special with the Nevada Wolf Pack (270) plus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (370) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (369). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (2-10-1) has lost five games in a row after their 30-7 loss at home to Dallas last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Pittsburgh (11-2) has lost two games in a row with their 26-13 loss at Buffalo last Sunday night as a 2-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a good opportunity to offer the reminder that we don’t bet on teams — we bet on point spreads. The Steelers are in no position to be a favorite of around two touchdowns to anybody right now. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 44 games as a double-digit favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games when favored by 10.5 to 14 points. Ben Roethlisberger is banged up right now. He denies he has a knee issue but he lacks any ability to move in the pocket and he is having difficulty planting his foot for deeper balls. Pittsburgh is limited to mostly quick passes which Roethlisberger is still good at. However, when opposing defenses can key-in on these quick strikes and lay off worrying too much about deep balls, then this approach can get stuck in the mud. The Steelers have not scored more than 19 points in three straight games. Pittsburgh is averaging only 294.7 total YPG during that stretch. To compound matters, the Steelers are getting very little from their running game. They have run for only 136 combined yards in their last three games. Pittsburgh has not rushed for more than 48 yards in five of their last seven games. James Conner has been injured but he ran the ball only ten times for 17 yards in his return to action last week. He is questionable tonight with the quad injury that has slowed him down. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. And while these problems on offense has contributed to them playing four straight Unders, Pittsburgh has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing four straight Unders. Furthermore, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. And in their last 6 games in December, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread all 6 times. Cincinnati should play well after their embarrassing effort at home. Not only have the Bengals covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss at home. Cincinnati has been pretty sneaky good at home this season before laying an egg against the Cowboys in that Andy Dalton revenge game. The Bengals have a 2-point loss to New England and a 3-point loss to Cleveland at home — and their two wins against Tennessee and Tennessee were at home. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. They are down to their third-string quarterback tonight with Ryan Finley with Joe Burrow out the season and then Brandon Allen being declared out tonight with a knee injury. Finley has plenty of NFL experience — he has thrown 106 passes in the regular season for 549 yards with two touchdown passes. Finley cannot be much worse than Allen as the Bengals have not scored more than 17 points in five straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after not scoring more than 17 points in five straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati will be looking to avenge a 36-10 loss at Pittsburgh on November 15th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* AFC North Game of the Year with the Cincinnati Bengals (370) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (369). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (267) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (268). THE SITUATION: North Texas (4-5) became bowl eligible in this unusual COVID-ridden season with their 45-43 win at UTEP in their last regular-season game on December 11th as a 10-point favorite. Appalachian State (8-3) enters this game coming off a 34-26 win over Georgia Southern as an 8.5-point favorite on December 12th. The inaugural Myrtle Beach Bowl will be played at the home of Coastal Carolina at Brooks Stadium in Conway, South Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MEAN GREEN PLUS THE POINTS: Appalachian State will likely be flat in this less than prestigious bowl game in this bizarre season. As it is, the Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And while Appalachian State has only covered the point spread once in their last eight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not covering the point spread in at least three of their last four games. Additionally, the Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Sun Belt Conference. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 6 games as a favorite, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread 5 times. North Texas has not covered the point spread in three straight games as well as six of their last eight contests — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. And while the Mean Green have allowed their last three opponents to score at least 42 points, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 42 points in three straight games. North Texas should be able to score points — they are averaging 35.1 PPG along with 515.0 total YPG this season. Head coach Seth Littrell has been rotating quarterbacks this season between sophomores Austin Aune and Jason Bean — but with Aune declared out for this game, Bean should get the majority of snaps and a game-plan tailored to his skill set. This will be Bean’s sixth straight start — he is completing only 52.4% of his passes but he averages 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt with 12 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Bean is the more mobile of the two QBs as well — he has rushed for 336 yards this season. He will be without his best weapon in wide receiver Jaelon Darden who leads the nation with 19 touchdowns but the Mean Green have other options at the position that will get an opportunity. Appalachian State is the type of team that North Texas has success against. The Mountaineers average 23.5 first downs per game while being on offense for 32:40 minutes per game. The Mean Green has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams who average at least 32 minutes per game on offense while tallying at least 21 first downs per game.

FINAL TAKE: Appalachian State has won five straight bowl games but this will be the first one with veteran offensive line coach Shawn Clark will be the head coach in his first year with the program. North Texas has played in a bowl game in four of the last five seasons — but they missed out last year after losing to Utah State in the New Mexico Bowl in 2018. Littrell is on the hot seat in Denton in his fifth year with the program — he needs to end the year on a good note. I am not predicting an upset here — but I am very confident that this North Texas team is taking this game very seriously. Getting 21 or so points is too many to pass up. 10* CFB Myrtle Beach Bowl ESPN Special with the North Texas Mean Green (267) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (362) plus the point versus the Cleveland Browns (361). THE SITUATION: New York (5-8) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last week with their 26-7 loss to Arizona as a 3-point underdog. Cleveland (9-4) comes off their dramatic 47-42 loss to Baltimore on Monday Night Football as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has plenty to play for in this game with a victory giving them a tie for first place in the NFC East after Washington lost to Seattle this afternoon. The Giants have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. New York has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. And while the Giants managed only 159 total yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Daniel Jones was back under center last week but he might have been rushed back on the field with his hamstring injury. Jones has been a threat with his legs but that injury left him immobile in the pocket — he was sacked six times. The veteran Colt McCoy will be starter again tonight after he was the starter two weeks ago when the Giants upset Seattle on the road. The New York defense has been the catalyst to their improved play. They have held their last three opponents to jut 18.3 PPG along with 290.7 total YPG. The Giants have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog. Cleveland is vulnerable to being satisfied with their competitive loss to the Ravens on Monday — this is a group that too often makes their own announcement as to just how good they are. Yet the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they are just 16-41-1 ATS in their last 58 games after a straight-up loss. Cleveland has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. Despite their 9-4 record, the Browns are being outscored by -1.5 PPG. They go on the road where they are being outgained by -24.2 net YPG while being outscored by -6.9 PPG despite their 4-2 record. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite. Cleveland may win this game — but this should be a close game. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the New York Giants (362) plus the point versus the Cleveland Browns (361). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (366) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (365). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (10-3) looks to rebound from their 24-21 upset loss at Philadelphia last week as a 7.5-point favorite. Kansas City (12-1) looks to build off their 33-27 win at Miami last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans should respond with a big effort in this game as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss —and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less on the road. The Saints’ defense surrendered 413 yards against the Eagles but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. And while they gained 358 yards behind Taysom Hill at quarterback, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards. New Orleans does not play at home often as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games as a dog. Drew Brees returns under center for this team in this game but he will not have Michael Thomas who will not play because of an injury until the playoffs. The Saints’ defense should play better in this one. They are holding their opponents to just 20.4 PPG along with 298.3 total YPG — and they have held their last three opponents to only 14.3 PPG along with 285.7 total YPG. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win where they did not cover the point spread. The Chiefs are getting comfortable living dangerously with five straight victories by six points or less — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning their last two games by six points or fewer. And while Kansas City is getting used to their offense bailing them out by averaging 479.3 total YGP, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games after averaging at least 450 YPG in three straight contests. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range including four of these last five situations. 10* NFL Kansas City-New Orleans CBS-TV Special with the New Orleans Saints (366) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (365). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (358) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (357). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-7) looks to bounce back from their 26-14 loss at Tampa Bay last week as a 7-point underdog. Chicago (6-7) snapped a six-game losing streak last Sunday with their 36-7 upset victory at home against Houston as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has been very reliable when placed in the bounce-back mode as they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 51 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. The Vikings have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Minnesota did get 162 rushing yards last week with Delvin Cook leading the way which is a good sign for this game as they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They return home for the last time for this game where they are scoring a healthy 29.1 PPG while averaging 419.3 total YPG. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 56 home games with the total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range including covering the spread in five of these last six situations. Chicago enjoyed a transcendent game from Mitchell Trubisky who completed 24 of 33 passes for 267 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. But look for the Bears to take a step back as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after a win by at least three touchdowns. And while the Bears dominated the Texans by outgaining them by +153 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +150 net yards. That game was the first time that Chicago had met point spread expectations in their last five games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after only covering the point spread once in their last four contests. They go back on the road where they are being outscored by -3.7 net PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Despite the strong defensive effort last week, they have still allowed their last three opponents to score 27.3 PPG while averaging 372.0 total YPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against NFC North foes — and the Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against divisional foes. Chicago will be playing with revenge on their minds after losing at home to Minnesota by a 19-13 score as a 3-point underdog — but the home team has still covered the point spread in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. 25* NFC North Game of the Year with the Minnesota Vikings (358) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (357). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (240) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (239). THE SITUATION: Florida (8-2) looks to rebound from their 37-34 upset loss at home to LSU last Saturday as a 24-point underdog. Alabama (10-0) completed their undefeated regular season last week with their 52-3 win at Arkansas as a 28-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GATORS PLUS THE POINTS: Look for this Florida team to play one of their best games of the season after getting embarrassed last week in a game that ruined their college football playoff aspirations. The Tigers were extremely fortunate to win that when considering that they were outlined by -291 net yards. The win probability metrics given the underlying stats are quite low for LSU after that game — and they needed that personal foul penalty resulting from a thrown shoe after a Florida defensive stop to keep their winning drive alive that culminated in a 57-yard field goal. The Gators have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after suffering an upset loss at home as a double-digit favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset loss to an SEC rival as a double-digit favorite. Florida has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when playing on the road after a loss by a touchdown or less to a conference opponent. The Gators were without tight end Kyle Pitts in that game but he is expected to play and is the most dangerous target in their passing game. I am not sure that Florida can slow down the Alabama offense — although they have held their last three opponents to only 22.0 PPG and 324.3 total YPG. But Florida should be able to keep this game competitive due to their explosive offense behind quarterback Kyle Trask. The Gators racked up a whopping 609 yards last week against LSU. They are scoring 41.2 PPG while averaging 513.5 total YPG. Florida has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in expected higher scoring games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Trask is completing 70.2% of his passes for 3717 yards with 40 touchdown passes and only five interceptions. Alabama is playing their third straight game away from home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning at least eight of their last ten games. And while the Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in seven straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Alabama offense appears unstoppable — but the Razorbacks did a decent job of holding them to 433 yards last week which is over 100 yards below their season average. One of their touchdowns came from an 84-yard punt return for a touchdown. And while the Tide has scored at least 42 points in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 42 points in at least four games in a row. Alabama forced four Arkansas turnovers last week for a +3 net turnover margin — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 45 games after forcing at least four turnovers in their last game and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after enjoying a +3 or better net turnover margin in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games when playing on a neutral field as a favorite in the 14.5 to 17 point range. Too many points to pass up for a team that will likely put up a big number on the scoreboard tonight. 25* CFB CBS-TV Game of the Year with the Florida Gators (240) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (239). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (346) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (345). THE SITUATION: Denver (5-8) snapped a two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 32-27 upset victory at Carolina as a 4-point underdog. Buffalo (10-3) comes off a high-profile victory last Sunday night against Pittsburgh by a 26-13 score as a 2-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bills doubled-up the Steelers score last week despite gaining only 334 yards of offense. But this Buffalo team may be due for an emotional letdown now facing a 5-8 Broncos team on the road. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games after winning at least four of their last five games — including failing to cover the point spread in four of these last six circumstances. Buffalo has won ten of their thirteen games despite only outgaining their opponents by +11.6 net YPG. And while they are 4-2 in their six games on the road, they have a flat net PPG margin of 0.0 in those contests. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. And while Buffalo is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.9% of their passes, the Broncos have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams who allow their opponents to complete at least 64% of his passes. Drew Lock comes off his best game in the NFL last week as he completed 21 of his 27 passes of 280 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. He led an offense that generated 365 yards — and Denver has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Broncos have lost four of their last six games, the Broncos have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after losing four or five of their last six games. Denver has lost the turnover battle in five straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after enduring a -1 or worse net turnover margin in at least four straight contests. The Broncos have suffered some key injuries on defense this season — but they have still held their guests to just 336.0 YPG when playing at home. This Denver is dealing with some significant injuries (and one suspension) — and they are particularly thin at cornerback for this game. That is certainly not ideal — but head coach Vic Fangio is a defensive coach who is as good as it gets in finding solutions. Remember, we are not betting teams, we are betting point spreads that take into account injuries before the market gets involved. The good news is that Denver does expect to have their vastly improved left tackle Grant Bolles as well as tight end Noah Fant available for this game (and I am not too worried about them not having their top place kicker, Brandon McManus, either — they have been working with a backup kicker after their quarterback debacle that left them without options a few weeks ago).

FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against AFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December. Look for the Broncos to keep this game close as they embrace the role of the spoiler without any pressure in this game. 25* NFL Network Game of the Year with the Denver Broncos (346) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (345). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (229) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (230). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (5-0) takes the field again after remaining unbeaten this season two weeks ago with their 52-12 victory against Michigan State as a 21.5-point favorite. Northwestern (6-1) comes off a 28-10 win over Illinois as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: I am not a believer in the Wildcats. Their 6-1 start is impressive — but I suspect this is a team we would have made money on when fading them in their late Big Ten conference games after a start like this. Instead, with the COVID-shortened season, they show up in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game. Maybe head coach Pat Fitzgerald’s team makes it to this game under normal circumstances — but that is a testament to the weakness of the Big Ten West where Northwestern compiled their impressive stats in this shortened season. The only team that the Wildcats have played from the Big Ten East was a bad Michigan State team — and somehow Sparty scored 29 points against this supposed elite defense! Nebraska tallied 442 total yards against this Wildcats’ defense as well. I suspect Ohio State is going to expose this unit. And Northwestern simply does not have the talent on offense to reach 30 points the way Indiana did against the Buckeyes to keep things relatively close. Their quarterback Patrick Ramsey transferred away from the Hoosiers because he was losing his job to Michael Penix, Jr. who is a dynamic dual-threat. Ramsey is a classic drop-back passer who lacks mobility. And while he has passed for 1218 yards, he is averaging only 5.8 Yards-Per-Attempt with only nine touchdown passes and six interceptions in his seven starts. Northwestern scored only 22.7 PPG in their last three contests — and they average just 283.3 total YPG in their three games away from Evanston. Those are all ominous numbers for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a point spread to cover as a double-digit favorite. They are also 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Wildcats did not force a turnover last week against the Illini — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not forcing a turnover in their last game. And while they rushed for 411 yards last week while tapping into their younger running backs on their depth chart like freshman Cam Porter, they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Ohio State’s defense has another level of athlete than what Illinois had to offer. The Buckeyes’ have been adjusting to life without Chase Young — but they still rank second in the nation in Expected Points Allowed per pass attempt. They are also holding opposing rushers to just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Ohio State has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game after holding Sparty to just 261 yards. They also have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Led by quarterback Justin Fields, the Buckeyes are an offensive juggernaut who is scoring 46.6 PPG while averaging 532.4 total YPG. Additionally, Ohio State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games played on a neutral field. Ohio State usually saves a few tricks for their rivalry game with Michigan that they still have yet to unveil since that game was canceled. And the Buckeyes need style points to ensure they are one of the four teams in the playoff. Expect a blowout where head coach Ryan Day never has his team take their foot off the proverbial gas pedal. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Ohio State Buckeyes (229) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (230). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (231) minus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (232). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (7-2) has won six straight games after their 27-14 win over Baylor two weeks ago on December 5th as a 23-point favorite. Iowa State (8-2) has won five straight games with their 42-6 win against West Virginia as a 6-point favorite two weeks ago. This game will be played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma lost two of their first three games this season — including a 37-30 setback to the Cyclones on October 3rd as a 7.5-point favorite. There are three reasons why I am willing to give the Sooners a pass for that slow start. First, COVID has been a challenge for everyone — and it has had a disproportionate effect on many football programs. I think it particularly hit many outstanding football coaches who rely on their abilities to coach up talent — and being robbed of teaching time played a toll. Second, I think it is underappreciated how much some coaches nurture improvement from their players as the season goes on. If (and when) the College Football Playoff expands beyond four teams to allow for teams with more than one loss, we will likely witness more teams make deep postseason runs benefited from the improvement that comes from great coaching. We see this all the time in college basketball. Third, this Sooners team added two key players in the sixth game of the season in running back Rhamondre Stevenson and defensive end Ronnie Perkins who were both suspended for the first three games. Perkins has tallied four sacks in four games with a pressure rate per pass rush of 16% (for comparison's sake, Chase Young had an 18% clip last year with Ohio State). Stevenson has rushed for 557 yards in four games with six touchdowns and a 6.8 Yards-Per-Carry average. These two players are difference-makers who did not play in the first meeting between these two teams. Oklahoma should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a double-digit win against a conference opponent. Iowa State is just 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning at least four games in a row. Furthermore, the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while Iowa State outgained the Mountaineers by a 483 to 264 yardage margin, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing no more than 275 yards in their last game. The Cyclones hosted the first encounter between these two teams in Ames — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games played on a neutral field and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral field as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa State lost to the Oklahoma State team that got easily defeated against this Sooners team a month later by a 41-13 score in mid-November. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the second half of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as a favorite. 10* CFB Oklahoma-Iowa State ABC-TV Special with the Oklahoma Sooners (231) minus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (232). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (251) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (252) in the Pac-12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Oregon (3-2) has lost two straight games entering this game after their 21-17 upset loss at California as a 9-point favorite on December 5th. USC (5-0) remained unbeaten last Saturday with their 43-38 win at UCLA as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: Oregon was placed into this game on Monday when the COVID outbreak in the Washington program forced them to pull out of that game. The Ducks thought they were going to be given the chance to earn the opportunity to play in this game with a showdown with the Huskies their scheduled game last week — but that game was canceled given the COVID issues in the Washington program. That game offered Oregon the chance to redeem themselves from suffering two straight upset losses at Oregon State and then at California two weeks ago. While the circumstances are less than ideal, this game does offer the Ducks the opportunity to salvage their season. Expectations were high for this group with 12 starters back from the team that finished 12-2 after winning both the Pac-12 Championship Game and then the Rose Bowl with a victory against Wisconsin. Oregon has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a bye week. And while the Ducks have not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least three straight games. Oregon outgained the Golden Bears in their last game by +97 net yards but red zone problems and a -2 net turnover margin held the Ducks back. Regression was expected for this team in the turnover department this season after they enjoyed a +16 net turnover margin last year. However, the Regression Gods may have overcorrected with Oregon ranking 123rd in the nation with a -1.40 net turnover margin per game. The Ducks are averaging 34.2 PPG which is 27th in the FBS — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. Oregon has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. They also have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 road games with the total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Furthermore, the Ducks have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games on the road as an underdog of 3 points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 48 of their last 72 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. USC was very fortunate to escape last week’s game with a victory as they were outgained by UCLA by -105 net yards. Over their last three games, the Trojans are being beaten in the yardage battle by -19.6 net YPG. The Bruins exposed a soft USC defense last week by amassing 549 total yards. The Trojans generated 364 of those yards allowed were in the air — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. USC has also failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games after allowing at least 42 points in their last contest. Sophomore Kedon Slovis did complete 30 of 47 passes for 344 yards last week but the Trojans are just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And in their last 8 games in December, USC has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games. The Trojans have been benefited from a +7 net turnover margin this season — so the Regression Gods can kill two birds with one stone tonight with some bounces that go the Ducks' way.

FINAL TAKE: Oregon will have plenty of confidence in this game as they crushed USC last season by a 56-24 score on the Trojans’ home field with a packed stadium. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with USC. Don’t be surprised if they pull the upset — but (always!) take the insurance with the points. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Year with the Oregon Ducks (251) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Ball State Cardinals (197) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (198) in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Ball State (5-1) has won five games in a row with their 30-27 upset win over Western Michigan last Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog. Buffalo (5-0) remained unbeaten this season last week with their 56-7 win over Akron as a 33-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at Ford Field in Detroit.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Ball State will have plenty of momentum and confidence entering this game. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a win by 3 points or less. Additionally, Ball State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. This is a team that returned 14 starters from a group that finished 4-4 in MAC play last year despite outgaining their opponents by +31 net YPG. Six of their returning players were all-conference. They have a dynamic quarterback back in senior Drew Plitt who leads a passing attack that is 23rd in the nation Passing Success Rate and 24th in the nation with an 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He leads an offense that scores 34.3 PPG while averaging 481.3 YPG in their three road games. The Cardinals did give up 491 yards last week but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Furthermore, Ball State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games as an underdog. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning their last game by at least 28 points. And while the Bulls raced out to a 35-0 halftime lead last week against the Zips, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after owning a halftime lead of at least 24 points in their last game. Buffalo dominated Akron with a +302 net yardage edge — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. The Bulls’ numbers are a bit skewed by playing only five games with two of them against the woeful Akron and Bowling Green teams. They have played only one game against a team in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s top 100 in SP+ offense — and that Kent State team scored 41 points against them. The Buffalo defense ranks 75th in the nation in Expected Points Allowed per pass attempt and 83rd in the nation in Explosive Plays allowed. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: The underdog has covered the point spread in 5 straight games between these two teams. 10* CFB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Ball State Cardinals (197) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (198). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (195) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (196) in the Conference USA Championship Game. THE SITUATION: UAB (5-3) snapped their two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 21-16 win over Rice as a 7-point favorite. Marshall (7-1) was embarrassed the previous week against that same Owls team on December 5th in a 20-0 upset loss as a 24.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS PLUS THE POINTS: UAB has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road after a win against a conference rival. And while the Blazers have not covered the point spread in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after not covering the point spread in three straight games. They are also 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a point spread loss. And while that game finished Under the 42 point total, UAB has then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. This team has played only once since Halloween — but this time off afforded them to get healthy again. Junior quarterback Tyler Johnston returned last week in that game against the Owls. The Blazers did lose senior wide receiver Austin Watkins who decided to opt-out the rest of the season. But UAB has depth at wide receiver and two pass-receiving tight ends to pick up the slack. This is a veteran team that has played in the Conference USA Championship Game in two straight seasons — and eighteen starters returned in the fall from the group that lost to Florida Atlantic last year. This team was just a couple of good bounces away from being 7-1 entering this game. They also have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games in expected low-scoring games with the total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. What happened to Marshall two weeks ago in their shocking shutout loss? For starters, their redshirt freshman quarterback, Grant Wells, threw five interceptions. This team has also been hit with injuries, particularly on their offensive line. This team may have peaked too soon for 11th-year head coach Doc Holliday. The Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. And while that game flew Under the 42 point total, Marshall has then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Thundering Herd do get to host this game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Coming off a shutout loss, a big Marshall bounce-back is certainly possible. This is why I look closely at team trends in an attempt to ascertain if there is a team personality or culture under a head coach that helps assess how a group will respond to specific circumstances. We have plenty of data to assess Holiday’s teams at Marshall. The Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games at home when favored. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB UAB-Marshall CBS Sports Network Special with the UAB Blazers (195) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (196). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (301) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-9) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 20-17 win over Atlanta as a 3-point favorite. Las Vegas (7-6) has lost three of their last four games with their 44-27 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by 3 points or less. And while Los Angeles has only covered the point spread once in their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 30 of their last 44 games on the road after failing to cover the point spread in at least three of their last four games. Despite their losing record and -5.0 net PPG average on the season, the Chargers are outgaining their opponents by +45.9 net YPG with an offense and defense that are both top-nine in the league in yardage. LA is also outgaining their home hosts when playing on the road. Anthony Lynn’s team is too often finding ways to lose — but they are playing close games with seven of their losses decided by one scoring possession. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They are also 32-15-1 ATS in their last 48 road games as an underdog. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 46 games after not covering the point spread in at least three straight games. Head coach Jon Gruden has a mess on his hands-on defense. Not only did he fire his defensive coordinator, Paul Guenther, this week after they allowed over 200 rushing yards for the second straight week, but injuries have ruled our four defensive starters tonight in defensive backs Johnathan Abram and Damon Arnette along with linebacker Nicholas Morrow and defensive end Clelin Ferrell. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in two straight games. Las Vegas has been outrushed by 133 and 134 yards in each of their last two games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after being outrushed by at least 75 yards in two straight games. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. And in their last 8 games in December, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers are playing out the string — but they can not only spoil the Raiders’ playoff hopes but they can also avenge a 31-26 loss to Las Vegas on November 8th. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing in the Raiders’ home stadium. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Chargers (301) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (179) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (180). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (7-5) snapped their three-game losing streak last Sunday with their 34-17 win over Dallas as an 8.5-point favorite. Cleveland (9-3) has won four games in a row with their 41-35 upset win at Tennessee as a 4-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore got the ground game cracking last week with 294 yards on a 7.9 Yards-Per-Carry average which they will certainly rev-up again tonight. This is a very good sign for head coach John Harbaugh’s team as they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games on the road after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Ravens allowed 388 yards to the Cowboys, they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Ravens’ recent losing streak took place while defensive tackles Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams were out with injuries — but they both returned last week for the Cowboys game. Campbell is listed as questionable with his calf injury but hopefully, he will play. Baltimore is allowing only 19.2 PPG this season which is 4th best in the league. Now Baltimore goes back on the road where they are 4-2 this season with an average winning margin of +6.0 PPG. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they are 32-14-6 ATS in their last 50 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Harbaugh’s team has also covered the point spread in 6 straight road games in December. Additionally, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against AFC North opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when playing on Monday Night Football. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 appearances on Monday Night Football. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. They return home where they are just 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 home games as an underdog. The Browns are dealing with injuries in their secondary with their best cornerback, Denzel Ward, out with a calf injury. They surrendered 431 total yards last week to the Titans — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland got thrashed in the first meeting between these two teams in the opening week of the season when Baltimore beat the Browns by a 38-6 score. But the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with revenge. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 meetings with the Browns — and they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games against them when playing Cleveland. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Baltimore Ravens (179) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (180). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (177) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (178). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-1) suffered their first loss of the season on Monday in their 23-17 upset loss at home to Washington as a 5.5-point favorite. Buffalo (9-3) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 34-24 upset win at San Francisco as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): The loss on Monday may have been a bit of a relief to head coach Mike Tomlin who has been complaining about the play of his team despite their unbeaten record before that setback. Tomlin likely had an attentive team this week in practice. Pittsburgh needs to get back to running the football more after putting too much pressure on Ben Roethlisberger to carry the offense with his arm. Big Ben has attempted at least 45 passes in five straight games. The talented wide receiving corps has been feeling the pressure with their league-leading 34 dropped passes this season. Fortunately, Tomlin expects his All-Pro center, Maurkice Pouncey, and running back James Conner back for this game just in time. This team should back to basics — run the ball, don’t ask too much of your quarterback, and lean your our outstanding defense. The Steel Curtain leads the NFL by allowing only 17.6 PPG this season — and they are third in the league by giving up only 300.5 total YPG. They have suffered injuries at linebacker with Bud Dupree joining Devin Bush in incurring a season-ending injury — but they still only allowed 13.3 PPG along with 247.7 YPG in their last three games. As it is, the Steelers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Now Pittsburgh goes back on the road where they are 5-0 with an average winning margin of +9.2 PPG. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games as an underdog. Buffalo may be due for a letdown after their high-profile win in prime-time on Monday. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 47 games after winning four of their last five games. Despite their 9-3 record, Buffalo is only outgaining their opponents by +3.4 YPG. The Bills’ defense has taken a step back this season as they are allowing 375.4 total YPG which is 21st in the league. This unit lost some key pieces from the group that was third in total defense last season — their heart-and-soil leader, Lorenzo Alexander, retired in the offseason and defensive linemen Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson along with cornerback Kevin Johnson were  all poached in free agency. Defensive tackle Star Lotuleilei then opted out because of COVID. These losses have left this Bills’ defense small — they are allowing their opponents to average 126.0 rushing YPG which is 9th worst in the league. The Niners’ offense led by Nick Mullens gained 402 yards against them on Monday — and they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams from the AFC — and Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against AFC foes. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (177) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (178). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (175) minus points versus the Washington Football Team (176). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-7) looks to rebound from their 34-24 upset loss in their temporary home at Glendale, Arizona on Monday. Washington (5-7) has won three games in a row after their 23-17 upset win at Pittsburgh on Monday as a 5.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: After the emotional high of giving the Steelers their first loss of the season, look for the Football Team to be flat in this game. As it is, Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by at least two touchdowns. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. This is a very difficult situation for Ron Rivera’s team to be playing on a short week while being away from home for the third straight week. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after a game played on Monday Night Football. The Football Team has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing their last two games on the road. They will be without one of their best weapons on offense in running back Anthony Gibson who suffered an injury early in that game against Pittsburgh. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games away from home after suffering an upset loss. They did gain 402 yards against the Bills defense in the losing effort — and they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Niners have just seven points in each of the first halves of their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than 7 points in the first half in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is slowly getting healthier — and they could still make the playoffs if they win out the rest of their games. I don’t see this team giving up on Kyle Shanahan — and they have an opportunity to catch a Washington team that is not used to handling good times. 10* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the San Francisco 49ers (175) minus points versus the Washington Football Team (176). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (157) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the New York Giants (158). THE SITUATION: Arizona (6-6) has lost three games in a row after their 38-28 loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams last week as a 2.5-point underdog. New York (5-7) has won four straight games after their 17-12 upset victory at Seattle last Sunday as an 11-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The Giants are a popular play this week in many circles after their high-profile signature victory — but they are just 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 games after a point spread win. New York is playing great defense as of late as they are allowing only 16.5 PPG over their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Backup quarterback Colt McCoy completed 13 of 22 passes for 105 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the win — but the Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not passing for more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Daniel Jones is expected to return to this game but his hamstring injury will limit the mobility that he has relied on to energize the offense since the season-ending injury to Saquon Barkley. Now New York returns home to MetLife where they are just 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games as an underdog. The Giants score only 19.0 PPG at home while averaging 300.2 total YPG — they are being outscored by -5.6 PPG while being outgained by -59.0 net YPG when playing at home. Arizona managed only 232 yards last week while only having their offense on the field for 21:07 minutes in their loss to the Rams — but they are then 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. The Cardinals surrendered 463 yards to the Rams as well with 344 of those yards coming in the air — but they are then 23-11-3 ATS in their last 37 games after allowing at least 250 pain yards in their last game. Arizona goes back on the road where they are 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 games — and they have covered the point span in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona misses Chandler Jones on defense who suffered a season-ending injury earlier in the year. And Kyler Murray has not been as productive as of late either because of an undisclosed injury or a sophomore slump. Yet the Cardinals have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips east to play the Giants. They are still holding home teams to just 19.8 PPG along with 327.77 total YPG — and they are outscoring their home hosts by +5.4 PPG while outgaining them by +41.2 net YPG. 10* NFL Road Warrior Wipeout with the Arizona Cardinals (157) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the New York Giants (158). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (438) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (437). THE SITUATION: UCLA (3-2)looks to build off their 25-18 upset win at Arizona State last Saturday as a 3-point underdog. USC (4-0) remained undefeated last Sunday with their 38-13 win at home against Washington State as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: This appears to be a much improved team in Chip Kelly’s third year with the program at UCLA. They are outscoring their opponents by +7.8 Points-Per-Game — and they are outgaining these opponents by +57.3 net Yards-Per-Game. The Bruins’ two losses to Colorado and Oregon were by just nine combined points. UCLA has the opportunity to play the role of spoiler against their crosstown rivals — and they are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win while also 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread victory. They return home where are 2-0 this season with an average winning margin of +20.5 net PPG. The Bruins are averaging 228 rushing YPG which is 16th best in the nation. They have also not allowed more than 18 points in three of their last four games. A good running game along with strong defense is a good recipe to pull the upset. UCLA is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home as an underdog. USC is just 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The Trojans have looked good in their last two games against Washington State and Washington — but they were shaky in their first two games. They needed to score two touchdowns in the final three minutes to get past Arizona State in their opening game — and then they only beat a terrible Arizona team by four points. The Wildcats have lost twelve straight games after their humiliating loss to the Sun Devils last night and the only time they stayed within single digits was against this Trojans team. USC has benefited from a +1.5 net turnover margin per game which is the second-best mark in the nation. The Trojans could not muster any semblances of a rushing attack last week against Washington State as they managed only five rushing yards. Quarterback Kedon Slovis did complete 25 of 32 passes for 287 yards with five touchdown passes last week but USC is just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Trojans are just 16-35-2 ATS in their last 53 games on the road — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games when favored on the road. Head coach Clay Helton’s team has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: The home team has fared well recently in this series as the home team has covered the point spread in 12 of the last 17 meetings between these two teams. USC has not covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the Rose Bowl playing at UCLA. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Year with the UCLA Bruins (438) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (437). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (133) plus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (134). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (5-3) has won two games in a row with their 42-31 win at North Texas back on December 3rd as a 1-point favorite. TCU (5-4) comes off a 29-22 upset win against Oklahoma State last Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: That was an impressive victory for Louisiana Tech last week as they had not played since Halloween given COVID issues. The Bulldogs held a Mean Green offense that averages 518.0 Yards-Per-Game to just 386 total yards. Head coach Skip Holtz is underrated — and his teams tend to improve as the season moves forward. Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win. His teams have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with eighth days of rest. Now this team stays on the road where they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games with the total set in the 49.5 to 52 point range. Furthermore, Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside Conference USA — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in December. TCU may be due for an emotional letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home over a Big 12 rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a point spread win. TCU turned the ball over five times in the win but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after turning the ball over at least three times in their last game. The Horned Frogs stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games. And getting fired up to play a Group of Five teams may be an issue as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams from Conference USA.

FINAL TAKE: TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 26 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when laying 10.5 to 21 points. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (133) plus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (134). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (257) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Colorado Buffaloes (258). THE SITUATION: Utah (1-2) won their first game of the season last Saturday with their 30-24 win over Oregon State as a 14-point favorite. Colorado (4-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 24-13 win at Arizona as a 9.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Utah has been a consistent program under head coach Kyle Whittingham — and they have the opportunity to play spoiler for the Buffaloes Pac-12 Conference championship game aspirations. The Utes have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a win against a Pac-12 opponent. And while Utah did not commit a turnover last week, they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games on the road after not committing a turnover in their last game. The Utes also rushed for 229 yards against the Beavers — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Utah has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Colorado has covered the point spread in all four of their last games this season including their last two as the favorite. But the Buffaloes have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in at least two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in two straight games as the favorite. Colorado defeated a terrible Wildcats team (that has now lost twelve straight games while only one time staying within single digits) despite committing three turnovers. The Buffaloes have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after turning the ball over at least three times in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado has benefited from a soft schedule — the Utes will be the best team they played in this abbreviated season. The Buffaloes also have the pressure of needing to win this game to stay alive to play in the Pac-12 championship game pending the results of USC later tonight. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in December. 10* CFB Utah-Colorado Fox-TV Special with the Utah Utes (257) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Colorado Buffaloes (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Louisville Cardinals (114) minus the point(s) versus Wake Forest (113). THE SITUATION: Louisville (3-7) looks to bounce-back from a 34-27 loss at Boston College back on November 28th as a 1-point underdog. Wake Forest (4-3) takes the field again for the first time since November 14th when their four-game winning streak was snapped in a 59-53 loss at North Carolina as a 13-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS MINUS THE POINTS: Louisville lost to the Eagles despite outgaining them by +58 net yards. The Cardinals are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight home games as a favorite. Despite their losing record, Louisville is outgaining their opponents by +72.2 net Yards-Per-Game this season. Wake Forest is being outgained by -10.0 net YPG this year due to their defense that is allowing 457.4 net YPG. The Demon Deacons surrendered a whopping 742 yards in their last game to the Tar Heels — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 525 yards in their last contest. Quarterback Sam Hartman did complete 29 of his 45 passes for 428 yards with four touchdown passes in a losing effort — but Wake Forest has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Demon Deacons have only committed one turnover in their seven games this season — but they have then failed to cover the 9 of their last 12 games after not committing more than one turnover in at least five straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Louisville Cardinals (114) minus the point(s) versus Wake Forest (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (102) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (101). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-4) has won three of their last four games with their 38-28 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. New England (6-6) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 45-0 victory in Los Angeles against the Chargers.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles had their offensive clicking on all cylinders against the Cardinals. They held the ball for 38:53 minutes while cranking out 463 yards. Quarterback Jared Goff completed 37 of 47 passes for 351 yards. The Rams should build off their momentum for this game as they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Additionally, while LA generated 30 first downs against Arizona, they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after controlling the clock for at least 34 minutes while gaining at least 34 first downs in their last game. The Rams shined on defense as well as they held the Cardinals’ offensive attack to just 232 yards. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 150 yards. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 7 points. New England outclassed the Chargers last week despite only gaining 291 total yards. The Patriots scored two special teams touchdowns from a 70-yard punt return for a touchdown along with a 44-yard blocked field goal returned for a TD. But Bill Belichick’s team has not been very good at maintaining consistency as they are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. New England is also 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Patriots have simplified their game-plan with Cam Newton under center to be a run-first team that does not try to rely on his arm. Newton attempted only 19 passes on Sunday for a mere 69 yards. New England is third in the NFL by averaging 150.9 rushing YPG — but they now face the stout Rams’ defense that is third in the league by holding their opponents to just 93.1 rushing YPG. If the Patriots do not find success running the football, they lack a credible Plan B. Even if Newton was a better gunslinger at this point of his career, he lacks the weapons at wide receiver to be productive — especially against this Rams secondary which might be the best in the league. Despite their 6-6 record, Los Angeles is getting outgained in yardage this season.

FINAL TAKE: New England has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the final four weeks of the season — and the Rams are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in December. Head coach Sean McVay has been thinking about this opportunity to avenge his team’s loss in Super Bowl 53 for a long time. His team has a decided talent edge this time around. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Rams (102) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Florida Atlantic Owls (375) minus the points versus the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (376). THE SITUATION: Florida Atlantic (5-2) looks to bounce back from a 20-3 loss at Georgia Southern last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite. Southern Mississippi (2-7) returns to action to play their final game of the season after the last playing on November 21st where they lost to UTSA by a 23-20 score as a 9-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS MINUS THE POINTS: FAU still has plenty to play for — they need to win this game while hoping that Marshall loses tomorrow to win the Conference USA East Division and play in the Conference USA Championship Game. The Owls have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. FAU has also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Owls are playing outstanding defense in the first year under head coach Willie Taggart. They rank 3rd in the FBS by allowing only 12.4 PPG while also ranking 6th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 300.6 Yards-Per-Game. Defense travels — FAU has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road while also covering the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored. Southern Miss has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. This team may not have much to play for at this point. They hired a new head coach in Will Hall after Jay Hopson resigned in September. The Tulane offensive coordinator takes over next season with Scotty Walden still serving as the interim head coach. The Golden Eagles are also down to their third-string quarterback after senior Jack Abraham entered the transfer portal and then Tate Whatley suffered a shoulder injury in their game against the Roadrunners. As it is, Southern Miss has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: FAU has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a Thursday — and the Golden Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a Thursday. 10* CFB FAU-Southern Miss CBS Sports Network Special with the Florida Atlantic Owls (375) minus the points versus the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (376). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (483) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (484). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-8) has lost five of their last six games after their 41-26 upset loss to Washington on Thanksgiving as a 2.5-point favorite. Baltimore (6-5) has lost three straight games as well as four of their last five contests after their 19-14 loss at Pittsburgh last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Baltimore may be flat in this game after playing their arch-rivals on a short week (as Pittsburgh was last night against Washington). As it is, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. Baltimore has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The Ravens really miss left tackle Ronnie Stanley who is out the season with an ankle injury. His absence explains much of the reason why Baltimore is averaging 18.3 PPG in their last three games with just 294.0 total YPG over that span. Their offense does get Lamar Jackson back for this game — but remember that Cam Newton struggled both physically and mentally (COVID has been shown to negatively impact brain functioning with many sufferers complaining of being in a fog for an extended period of time even after recovery). Don’t expect Jackson to be back at 100% tonight. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 home games when favored. Baltimore has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games with the total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Dallas was humiliated on national television in their last game — and they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after an upset loss by at least three touchdowns. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after an upset loss by at least two touchdowns. Dallas will certainly have the situational edge with almost two weeks of rest and preparation for this contest. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after playing on a Thursday. They also have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. And while Dallas surrendered 182 rushing yards to the Football Team, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after allowing at least 175 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Dallas can pull within one game of the NY Giants and Washington in the NFC East race — but the opportunity to play spoiler against the Ravens may be more realistic for this football team. Pride is on the line after how they played on Thanksgiving. 10* NFL Tuesday Night Discounted Deal with the Dallas Cowboys (483) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (484). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (486) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (485). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-6) snapped their three-game losing streak last Sunday with their 23-20 upset win in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 5-point underdog. Buffalo (8-3) has won four of their last five games after their 27-17 win over the Los Angeles Chargers last week as a 4.5-point favorite. With COVID regulations precluding football games to be played in Santa Clara County, the 49ers have moved to Glendale, Arizona for their temporary home with this contest being played in the Cardinals’ State Farm Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINTS: San Francisco outgained the Rams by +37 net yards by controlling the time of possession by over 34 minutes and limiting them to just 308 yards of offense. The Niners held a 7-3 halftime lead in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. And while San Francisco has only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Head coach Kyle Shanahan’s team is getting back some important players on both sides of the football. Running backs Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman along with wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are back on offense. They got back Richard Sherman on defense last week to help a unit that is 4th in the league by allowing just 206.7 passing YPG. Despite a host of injuries all season, the Niners’ defense has been consistently strong under the guidance of defensive coordinator Robert Saleh — they are allowing only 315.2 total YPG which is 5th best in the NFL. The 49ers also rank 6th in the NFL by holding opposing rushers to just 3.65 Yards-Per-Carry. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams from the AFC — and they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 43 games on Monday Night Football. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 46 games after winning four of their last five games — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in their last four games under those circumstances. And while the Bills have covered the point spread in their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 39 of their last 61 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Quarterback Josh Allen has not played as well after a hot start to the season. Allen completed 69.3% of his passes for his first four games for a 330 passing YPG average with a 9.1 Yards-Per-Attempt rate while averaging 3.0 touchdown passes per game. But in his last seven games, Allen is averaging only 243.1 passing YPG with a 7.43 YAP while tossing only 1.43 touchdowns per game. Buffalo is not playing as well on defense this season either. They are 18th in the league by allowing 243.5 passing YPG — and they are 25th in the NFL by allowing 129.6 rushing YPG. The Chargers gained 367 yards against them last week — and the Bills are 1-4-1 ATS  in their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo is getting outgained this season despite their 8-3 record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (486) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (485). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (487) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (488). THE SITUATION: Washington (4-7) has won two straight games after their 41-16 upset victory at Dallas on Thanksgiving by a 41-16 score as a 2.5-point underdog. Pittsburgh (11-0) remained unbeaten last Wednesday with their 19-14 win over Baltimore as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM PLUS THE POINTS: Washington has the situational edge in this game with them having eleven days between games while the Steelers are on a short week after playing their rescheduled game with the Ravens on Wednesday. The Football Team is finding their groove under first-year head coach Ron Rivera now that he has found his quarterback in Alex Smith. Washington has scored 29.3 PPG in the three games Smith has started. He is completing 69% of his passes (5th best in the NFL) while leading an offense that is 5th in Success Rate in those three games. The Football Team tends to build off their momentum when they are playing well. Washington has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win. Furthermore, the Football Team has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least 21 points against an NFC East rival. Their triumph over the Cowboys came after they defeated Cincinnati by a 20-9 score — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning two straight games by double-digits. Smith’s efficient game-management is complementing the tough Washington defense that is 8th in the NFL against the pass and 5th against the run. The Football Team has 36 sacks and 66 hits on the quarterback which are both the second-best marks in the league. Pittsburgh returns to action after that physical game with the Ravens — they were flat and had to conduct a second-half comeback to eke out a 24-19 win against Dallas after their first game with Baltimore this season. And while the Steelers have covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Pittsburgh is the lone undefeated team in the league but they have benefited from the second-easiest schedule. They have survived five close games decided by one possession. The Steelers have not allowed more than 14 points in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after not allowing more than 17 points in three straight games. Pittsburgh will be without running back James Conner again this week after they rushed for only 68 yards last week. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh is dealing with some injuries with star linebacker Bud Dupree out the season which makes them a bit thin at that position with Devin Bush already out the year. They will miss his eight sacks and eight hits on the quarterback. Ben Roethlisberger also missed the last three practices given his injured knee. Expect Washington to keep it close. 10* NFL Washington-Pittsburgh Fox-TV Special with the Washington Football Team (487) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Denver (4-7) has lost three of their last four games with their 31-3 loss at home to New Orleans last week as a 17-point underdog. Kansas City (10-1) has won six games in a row after their 27-24 win at Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Denver was embarrassed as an organization last week with their four-touchdown loss the culmination of their COVID outbreak that left them with their entire active quarterback depth chart inactive. The Broncos have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss at home. Denver has also covered the point spread i 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The Broncos did not have a credible passing attack last week with wide receiver Kendall Hinton serving as the quarterback. He completed only one pass of 13 yards. Denver does get Drew Lock back this week under center who should have something to prove. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And while they managed only 112 yards of offense last week, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. The key to this game will be slowing down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Denver has held their last three opponents to just 290.7 total YPG. They go on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up victory where they did not cover the point spread. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Kansas City is averaging a robust 466.7 total YPG over their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 straight games after averring at least 450 YPG in their lat three games. Despite that offensive productivity, the Chiefs are only outscoring these three opponents by +3.0 PPG. These last three games have been decided by just nine combined points. Furthermore, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 12 games in Weeks 10 through 13.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs won the first meeting between these two teams by a 43-16 score — with two of those touchdowns coming from a defensive score and a special teams TD. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (465) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (466). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (8-3) has won three in a row after their 27-25 win at Jacksonville last week as a 7.5-point favorite. Tennessee (8-3) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 45-26 upset win at Indianapolis as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee has pulled off two straight upset victories with their revenge triumph over the Colts preceded by their 30-24 win at Baltimore. But the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after an upset win on the road by at least two touchdowns. Tennessee raced out to a 35-14 lead over Indianapolis last week — yet they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Additionally, the Titans are 19-39-1 ATS in their last 59 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while Tennessee surrendered 280 passing yards to the Colts in the winning effort, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Titans have the kind of defense that Browns’ QB Baker Mayfield tends to play his best against because they lack a pass rush which pushes him to hurry his throws in the pocket. Cleveland has won eight straight games when Mayfield posts a Passer Rating of at least (a modest) 70. He completed 19 of 29 passes for 258 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions last week. Mayfield has now played three straight games without throwing an interception. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Browns lead the NFL by averaging 161 rushing YPG this season — and Nick Chubb has rushed for at least 100 yards in three straight games. The Titans are vulnerable against good rushing teams where they rank in the middle of the pack by allowing 116 rushing YPG (15th) and 4.3 Yards-Per-Carry (16th). Cleveland rushed for 207 yards last week on 33 carries — and not only have they then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards but they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. They averaged 7.4 Yards-Per-Play overall last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Cleveland is banged up in their secondary with injuries but they do get defensive end extraordinaire Myles Garrett back from the COVID list for this game. 

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee is only outgaining their opponents by +1.1 net YPG this season despite their 8-3 record — and they are being outgained by -54.3 net YPG when playing at home. The Titans have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite. Expect a close game. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Browns (465) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (466). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (444) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (443). THE SITUATION: Duke (2-7) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 56-33 upset loss at Georgia Tech as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Miami (7-1) takes the field again after last playing on November 14th when they upset Virginia Tech on the road by a 25-24 score as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS PLUS THE POINTS: The Hurricanes have been hit by COVID which contributed to their last two games being canceled. Practices have been disrupted and it remains unclear what players will or will not be available for this game. As it is, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not playing for at least two weeks. And while the Hurricanes have won four games in a row, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning at least two games in a row. Miami is eking out close games — their last three victories have been by nine combined points despite being a double-digit favorite in two of those games. The Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games as a favorite laying at least 14 points against FBS foes. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road as a favorite. Duke has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after suffering an upset loss as a road favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing at least two games in a row. Quarterback Chase Brice completed only 19 of 40 passes against the Yellow Jackets but he did generate 273 passing yards with two touchdown passes — and the Blue Devils are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Duke is scoring 36.7 PPG — they should keep up with this Miami who has allowed their last three opponents to score 35.3 PPG and 459.5 Yards-Per-Game. The Blue Devils return home where they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They are also 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Duke will be confident in this game as they have pulled the upset against the Hurricanes in each of the last two seasons. The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 5 straight games in December under head coach David Cutcliffe — and the Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games in December. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Duke Blue Devils (444) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (443). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (402) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (401). THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (2-1) looks to bounce-back from a 17-7 upset loss at Northwestern two weeks ago as a 7-point favorite. Indiana (5-1) looks to build off their 27-11 win over Maryland as an 11.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wisconsin did not play last week after their game was canceled because of COVID issues. The extra week to rest and prepare should help the Badgers as they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a bye week. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Wisconsin defense is playing well as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. And while they held the Wildcats to just 263 yards, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing at least 275 yards in their last game. They return home to Madison where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite in their last game. They lost their dynamic dual-threat quarterback, Michael Penix, for the season last week to a torn ACL. Sophomore Jack Tuttle takes over under center — the Utah transfer is highly-regarded but he will not run the yardage that Penix did in this offense. The Hoosiers outrushed the Terrapins by +185 net yards last week but they have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +125 yards.

FINAL TAKE: Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in their last 4 games in Madison against the Badgers. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Wisconsin Badgers (402) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (401). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (412) plus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (411). THE SITUATION: Auburn (5-3) looks to rebound from their 42-13 loss at Alabama last Saturday as a 25.5-point underdog. Texas A&M (6-1) has won five games in a row with their 20-7 win over LSU last week as a 16-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Auburn should pick themselves off the mat after getting thrashed by their in-state rival in the Iron Bowl. The Tigers have bounced back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. They return home where they are a perfect 4-0 with an average winning margin of +17.0 PPG. Auburn has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home. And while they had covered the point spread in their previous three games before getting blown out by the Crimson Tide, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. It is not often that this program is getting the points at home — they have only been a home dog six times since 2016. Auburn has covered the point spread in 5 of those 6 games with four outright upset victories — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games when getting the points. Furthermore, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in December. Texas A&M managed only 267 yards against LSU last week despite having the football for 33:32 minutes. The Aggies averaged a mere 3.76 Yards-Per-Play in that game. Texas A&M has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to gain more than 275 yards in their last contest. With their 6-1 record, the Aggies are in the college football playoff hunt — especially with Ohio State at risk of not playing a minimum of five Big Ten games to qualify for the Big Ten Championship Game (although the conference will change their rules to give the Buckeyes eligibility for that game, if necessary). But the pressure could be too much for this Texas A&M team that only beat Vanderbilt by 5 points earlier this season. The Aggies did flex their muscles on defense by holding the Tigers to just 267 yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Now Texas A&M goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games with the total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: Texas A&M has only covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Auburn to play the Tigers. Expect a close game. 25* CFB SEC Underdog of the Year with the Auburn Tigers (412) plus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (411). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (393) minus the point(s) versus the TCU Horned Frogs (394). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (6-2) has won two of their last three games after their 50-44 win over Texas Tech last Saturday as a 12-point favorite. TCU (4-4) has won three of their last four contests with their 59-23 victory at Kansas last week as a 23-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINT(S): Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Oklahoma State offense got cranking by generating 539 yards of offense in the win. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points — and they have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 44 games after scoring at least 50 points in their last game. And while Oklahoma State has allowed at least 17 points in the first half of their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after allowing at least 17 points in the first half of two straight contests. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games in December. TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Horned Frogs’ blowout over the Jayhawks was helped by two defensive touchdowns along with a 37-yard punt return for a TD. Yet starting quarterback Max Duggan competed only 3 of 11 passes for a mere 96 yards which is not going to get it done against this Cowboys team. The Horned Frogs return home where they are just 1-3 this season while failing to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games. TCU has been hit hard by COVID with at least 30 players being infected at one point. And while head coach Gary Patterson’s team would love to play spoiler against this Oklahoma State team with Big 12 Championship Game aspirations, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma State has thrived in expected close games under head coach Mike Gundy. The Cowboys have won ten of their last twelve games when listed in the +/- 3-point range while going 8-2-2 ATS in those contests. 10* CFB Oklahoma State-TCU ESPN2 Special with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (393) minus the point(s) versus the TCU Horned Frogs (394). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (327) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (328). THE SITUATION: UL-Lafayette (8-1) has won five straight games after their 70-20 blowout victory at UL-Monroe as a 28.5-point favorite last Saturday. Appalachian State (7-2) looks to build off their 47-10 win over Troy as a 14-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINTS: UL-Lafayette has had this game circled all year after losing to Appalachian State for the second straight year in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game last season — and that loss was the fourth setback to the Mountaineers in the last two seasons after they also dropped the regular-season matchup between these two teams. The Ragin’ Cajuns have already punched their ticket to play in the conference championship for the third straight time in a row with the opportunity to avenge their only loss this season with a date against Coastal Carolina — but defeating this Appalachian State team remains a very high priority for head coach Billy Napier and the fourteen starters back from last season. UL-Lafayette should build off their momentum from last week as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 20 points. And while they generated 511 yards last week against the War Hawks, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. UL-Lafayette is averaging 5.8 Yards-Per-Carry which is 6th in the nation — and they have outrushed their last two opponents by at least +131 net rushing yards. The Ragin’ Cajuns have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after outrushing their last two opponents by at least +125 net rushing yards. This team is undefeated on the road with a 5-0 mark — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. UL-Lafayette has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games with the total set in the 49.5 to 52 point range. And in their last 11 games on the road as an underdog, the Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in 8 of these contests. Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win at home by at least four touchdowns. Furthermore, while the Mountaineers enjoyed a 34-10 halftime lead last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after leading by at least 24 points at halftime of their last game. Appalachian State rushed for 275 yards last week which helped to fuel their 554 total yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Mountaineers have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. The scoring punch has been down this season for this team as their 32.8 PPG scoring average is -6.0 PPG below what they tallied last year even though eight starters are back from that unit. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 52 point range. And in their last 9 games as a favorite, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread 7 times.

FINAL TAKE: I waited to get the weather update today for Boone, North Carolina, because I would be less enthusiastic about the Ragin’ Cajuns if the temperature dropped below 32 degrees with rain expected. The weather reports call for temperatures in the 40s during the game with the wind not much of a factor — and that should help the UL-Lafayette passing game. The Mountaineers have a new head coach this year in Shawn Clark who was an assistant to the Scott Satterfield and Eliah Drinkwater coached-teams of the previous two seasons that have dominated the Ragin’ Cajuns. The motivational edge for UL-Lafayette should make the difference tonight. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Game of the Year with the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (327) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (328). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (279) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (280). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (6-4) has lost two games in a row as well as three of their last four contests after their 30-24 upset loss to Tennessee in overtime back on November 22nd. Pittsburgh (10-0) remained unbeaten this season on November 22nd with their 27-3 win at Jacksonville as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: Baltimore enters this game with their backs against the wall with a losing streak, limited practice time, and several players out because of injury. Lamar Jackson, Willie Snead IV, Mark Andrews, and Matthew Judon are not expected to be removed from the COVID list at noon PM ET today. Defensive linemen Brandon Williams and Calais Campbell are out with injuries along with offensive linemen Ronnie Stanley and D.J. Fluker. Yet asking the Steelers to cover a double-digit point spread even under these conditions is probably too much to ask against a bitter divisional rival. The Ravens surrendered 436 yards in their loss to Tennessee while getting outgained by -117 net yards. Yet Baltimore has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 350 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after getting outgained by at least 100 yards in their last game. The Ravens hopes to get J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram back off the COVID list this afternoon for this game. Baltimore will run the ball plenty in this game to burn time off the clock — they rushed the ball 47 times for 265 yards even with a healthy Jackson in the first meeting between these two teams. While the Ravens lost that game by a 28-24 score as a 4-point favorite, they outgained the Steelers in that game by a decisive +236 net yards but were undone by a -3 net turnover margin. QB Robert Griffin III can still move the football with his legs — he rushed for 50 yards in his start against Pittsburgh in Week 17 last season. The Ravens go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games —and they are 31-14-6 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning record at home under head coach John Harbaugh. Pittsburgh does struggle with complacency at times — they have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games as a double-digit favorite. And while the Steelers have covered the point spread in eight of their ten games this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in at least eight of their last ten games. Pittsburgh gained 373 yards in their win over Jacksonville last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. While the Steelers are not facing the same attrition as the Ravens, they will be without running back James Conner who is on the COVID list. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 games against AFC North foes — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Pittsburgh against the Steelers. Look for the Ravens to keep this game close. 10* NFL Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Baltimore Ravens (279) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (276) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (275). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (3-6-1) has lost two games in a row with their 22-17 loss at Cleveland last Sunday as a 2.5-point underdog. Seattle (7-3) snapped a two-game losing streak two Thursdays ago with their 28-21 win over Arizona as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia needs a win — and they have been facing adversity all week given the struggles on quarterback Carson Wentz. The Eagles have not covered the point spread in their last two games either — but they have then covered the point spread in 40 of their last 60 home games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Philadelphia has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after losing two of their last three games. The Eagles are playing better defense as of late. They have allowed 19.3 PPG over their last three games along with just 323.7 total YPG which is over -6 PPG and -19.0 net YPG below their season averages. Five of the Seahawks’ seven wins have been by one scoring margin — so they have not been blowing teams out. They are just +0.2 PPG when playing on the road while allowing 30.4 PPG and getting outgained by -20.2 net YPG. The Seahawks have not been a reliable road favorite under head coach Pete Carroll as they have failed to cover the point spread in 41 of their last 73 games away from home as a favorite up to 7 points. Head coach Doug Pederson tends to see his team perform well against powerful offensive teams. Seattle is scoring 31.8 PPG while averaging 400 total YPG this season — but the Eagles have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games in the second half of the season against teams who average at least 29 PPG and they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games against teams who average at least 375 YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles will have double-revenge on their minds as well after losing twice to Seattle last year by identical 17-9 scores — including in the NFC wildcard playoffs. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia Eagles (276) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (273) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (274). THE SITUATION: Chicago (5-5) has lost four games in a row after their 19-13 loss at home to Minnesota back on November 16th as a 3.5-point underdog. Green Bay (7-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 34-31 loss in overtime at Indianapolis as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago scored only 6 points in the first half against the Vikings after not scoring in the first half of their last game against Tennessee — but this organization has covered the point spread in a decisive 53 of their last 83 gams after not scoring more than a touchdown in the first half in two straight games. The Bears managed only 149 total yards against Minnesota with just 124 of these yards in the air. Chicago has then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to gain at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. Nick Foles was knocked out of that game last week with a hip injury that will keep him out of this game. Mitchell Trubisky will be the starting quarterback in this game — and I think he should play better than he did earlier in the season. Trubisky has nothing to lose now so the pressure should be off. This will also be his first start with offensive coordinator Bill Lazor calling the plays since he took over those responsibilities two games ago for head coach Matt Nagy. Don’t be surprised if Trubisky is more active with his legs. The team will get running back David Montgomery back for this game as well which will be a big help — he leads the team with 472 rushing yards. Playing Green Bay may help since they are last in the NFL in Red Zone defense with opposing offenses scoring in 97% of their trips inside the Packers’ 20-yard line this season. The Bears’ defense should keep them in this game. They are 9th in the NFL by allowing 340.1 Yards-Per-Game — and they are holding their opponents to 20.9 PPG. Chicago has not allowed more than 96 rushing yards in seven straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in at least two straight games. Chicago has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against fellow NFC North opponents. Green Bay blew a 28-14 lead last week against the Colts — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after owning a two-touchdown or better halftime lead in their last game. Aaron Rodgers completed 27 of 38 passes for 311 yards in that game — but the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Green Bay has averaged 6.8, 6.7, and 6.5 Yards-Per-Play in each of their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in three straight games. Now the Packers return home where they have struggled in their last two games with a narrow 24-20 win over lowly Jacksonville and getting upset by the Vikings by a 28-22 score. Perhaps the team misses the fans in Lambeau Field? There will be an audience of up to 500 tonight consisting of friends and family — but that will not accomplish much regarding the energy level in the stadium. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Rodgers is just 6-12-1 straight-up in his last nineteen starts again teams with a top-ten defense. And while he is leading an offense that is third in seventh in total yardage, Chicago has won eight of their last eleven games when facing a top-ten offense. A Bears’ victory pulls them within one game of first place of the Packers in the NFC North — expect a close game. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Chicago Bears (273) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (260) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (259). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (4-6) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 31-28 upset loss to Dallas as a 7-point favorite. Carolina (4-7) comes off a 20-0 shutout victory over Detroit last Sunday as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has been very reliable when picking themselves up off the mat after a loss under head coach Mike Zimmer as they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 51 games after a straight-up loss. The Vikings have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games are a narrow loss by 6 points or less. Minnesota has been playing much better football as of late — and they still have an outside shot to make the playoffs. They have held their last three opponents to just 21.3 PPG along with 315.3 total Yards-Per-Game despite last week’s results. The Vikings have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Kirk Cousins played well last week as he completed 22 of 30 passes for 314 yards with two touchdown passes and join interceptions. Running back Dalvin Cook has been sublime this season (when healthy) — he rushed for 115 yards with a touchdown on 27 carries last week. Minnesota gained 430 yards in the losing effort to the Cowboys — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Vikings are scoring 27.0 PPG over their last three games while averaging 434.0 total YPG. Wide receiver Adam Thielen is out for this game with after a positive COVID test but I expect this to be the Cook show on the ground against a defense that allows opposing rushers to average 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Minnesota stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Carolina is likely due for a letdown after their dominant performance against the hapless Lions. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while they held Detroit (with an injured Matthew Stafford who had not practiced all week) to just 185 yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Carolina is averaging only 332.0 total YPG in their last three contests — and they will be without running back Christian McCaffrey who was declared out with a shoulder injury for this game. The Panthers snapped a five-game losing streak with their win over the Lions — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after losing at least four of their last five games.

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in November under Zimmer’s leadership. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (260) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (259). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (297) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (298). THE SITUATION: Utah (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 31-17 upset loss at home to USC last week as a 1-point favorite. Washington (2-0) comes off a 44-27 win against Arizona last week as a 12-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES PLUS THE POINTS: That was just the first game of the season for head coach Kyle Whittingham with his team with COVID issues causing the cancellation of their games with Arizona and UCLA — and this game was rescheduled earlier this week after Arizona State had an outbreak. Look for this team to be much improved this week with a week of practice that can focus on the mistakes from last week — the proverbial coaching jump from Game One to Game Two. Whittingham returned an inexperienced team that has just nine starters back from the group that finished 11-3 last season. Whittingham tapped redshirt sophomore Cameron Rising as his quarterback — but the Texas transfer lasted about a quarter last week before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. Whittingham now turns to another transfer in Jake Bentley who came over in the offseason from South Carolina. He will benefit from the week of practice with the first unit along with a game-plan more tailored to his skill set. The defense should play better as well with nine new starters — they allowed the Trojans to gain 357 yards which was not a bad effort against that powerful offensive group. It was five turnovers and a -3 net turnover margin that hurt the Utes last week. They did hold USC to just 93 rushing yards — and they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last game. Utah is dangerous as an underdog as they are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games as a road dog. They have also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 56 games when getting 3.5 to 10 points. And in their last 31 road games against teams with a winning record at home, Utah has covered the point spread in 21 of these games. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win at home against a Pac-12 opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread victory. The Huskies have 12 starters back the team that finished 8-5 last season. But Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. They host this game where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Huskies went from their expected rivalry game with Washington State in the Apple Cup to their most difficult opponent so far this season midweek with the Utes given the scheduling change. The Utah defense should keep this a close game. 10* CFB Utah-Washington ABC-TV Special with the Utah Utes (297) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (298). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (242) minus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (241). THE SITUATION: Ole Miss (3-4) has won two straight games with their 59-42 victory over South Carolina as a 12.5-point favorite two weeks ago on November 14th. Mississippi State (2-5) looks to rebound from their 31-24 loss at Georgia last Saturday as a 26.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS MINUS THE POINTS: Mississippi should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a victory. Quarterback Matt Corral completed 28 of 32 passes for 513 yards with four touchdown passes in the victory. Head coach Lane Kiffin can coach offense. This Rebels team is 11th in the FBS by averaging 6.9 Yards-Per-Play — and they rank 4th in the nation by averaging 10.9 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. They put up 42 points against Alabama — and they are averaging 42.5 PPG along with 603.0 total YPG when playing at home. Ole Miss did surrender 548 yards to the Gamecocks two weeks ago — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Rebels have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. Mississippi State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. It will be difficult for the Bulldogs to keep up with the Ole Miss offense even under first-year head coach Mike Leach. Mississippi State has failed to score more than 14 points in four of their seven games. The Bulldogs stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games against teams with a losing record at home (Ole Miss is 1-3 at home). Mississippi State has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Rebels will have revenge on their minds as well after losing last year’s Egg Bowl by a 21-20 score at Mississippi State. 20* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Mississippi Rebels (242) minus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (241). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (180) plus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (179). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (1-3) looks to rebound from getting shutout out two weeks ago on November 14th by a 24-0 score as a 7.5-point favorite against Indiana. Northwestern (5-0) comes off a big 17-7 upset win at home against Wisconsin last week as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINTS: Look for Northwestern to suffer an emotional letdown after their big win over the Badgers that put them in the college football playoff conversation. The Wildcats were outgained by -103 net yards but benefited from a +4 net turnover margin. Northwestern is only outgaining their opponents by +21.8 net YPG — and they are only outgaining their opponents by +3.5 net YPG on the road. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games are games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. Northwestern simply does not score enough to be a reliable two-touchdown favorite. They are scoring only 21.7 PPG in their last three games while averaging just 290.7 total YPG. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing a game where no more than 29 combined points were scored. And while Northwestern has played all five of their games Under the Total, the Wildcats have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing five straight Unders. Michigan State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after playing a game where no more than 24 combined points were scored. The Spartans should play better with an extra week to prepare. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. Head coach Mel Tucker has also seen his teams cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as a dog.

FINAL TAKE: Northwestern has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite laying 10.5 to 21 points. 10* CFB Northwestern-Michigan State ESPN Special with the Michigan State Spartans (180) plus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (179). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ball State Cardinals (199) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (200). THE SITUATION: Ball State (2-1) has won two games in a row with their 31-25 victory over Northern Illinois on November 18th as a 14.5-point favorite. Toledo (2-1) comes off a 45-28 win at Eastern Michigan as a 6.5-point favorite on November 18th in midweek MACtion.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Ball State is a veteran team with 14 starters back including six all-conference players from the group that was 4-4 in Mid-American Conference play last season. That team outgained their conference opponents by +31 Yards-Per-Game but too often stymied by bad luck. The Cardinals have been typically a dangerous underdog to keep their games close under head coach Mike Neu in his fifth year with the program. Ball State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road getting the points. Led by senior quarterback Drew Plitt along with another six senior starters on offense, the Cardinals are scoring 33.3 PPG this season while averaging 476.3 total YPG. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. And while the Rockets went into halftime with a 24-7 lead over the Eagles, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after owning at least a 17-point halftime lead. Senior quarterback Eli Peters is questionable for this game wit the knee injury that knocked him out of last week’s game. Sophomore Carter Bradley came on as his understudy to complete 5 of 8 passes for 108 yards. Peters and Bradley combined for 298 passing yards — but Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Rockets have played their last two games Over the Total — but not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after playing two straight Overs. They return home to the Glass Bowl where they are just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Ball State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 trips to Toledo to face the Rockets. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Month with the Ball State Cardinals (199) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (200). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (136) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (135). THE SITUATION: North Carolina (6-2) has won two games in a row with their 59-53 victory over Wake Forest as a 13-point favorite back on November 14th. Notre Dame (8-0) returns to action after a bye week last week coming off a 45-31 win at Boston College as a 13-point favorite on November 14th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS PLUS THE POINTS: With the Fighting Irish opening as the second-ranked team in the college football playoff, the pressure is on for this team to win out their remaining games to play in the ACC Championship Game with a win securing one of the four spots in the college football playoff. Yet Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning at least eight games in a row. The Irish have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after playing a game where both teams scored at least 30 points. Notre Dame averaged 7.58 Yards-Per-Play to defeat the Eagles two weeks ago — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games on the road after averaging at least 7.25 Yards-Per-Play in their last game. The Irish have scored at least 31 points in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after scoring at least 31 points in four straight games. The foundation of this outstanding Notre Dame offense this season has been their offensive line that returned all five of their starters. But that chemistry and cohesion are now in flux with two starters on that line out for this game. Center Jarrett Patterson is out the season with a broken foot and right guard Tommy Kraemer, a four-year starter, is out this week after having an appendectomy. Those are ominous absences for a team that has looked vulnerable on defense in their last two games as they have surrendered 71 combined points in those games. North Carolina rallied from a three-touchdown deficit to defeat the Demon Deacons two weeks ago — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Sophomore quarterback Sam Howell completed 32 of 45 passes for 550 yards with six touchdown passes in the victory — and the Tar Heels have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. North Carolina has a potent offense that should be able to keep up with the Irish. The Tar Heels rank 4th in the nation by averaging 563.4 total YPG — and their 43.1 PPG scoring average is 10th in the nation. North Carolina has struggled on defense — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. They host this game in their final conference home game this season where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. The Tar Heels have also covered the point spread in 25 of their last 32 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: North Carolina can play this game loose in the role of the spoiler in this one — and they are undefeated at home with a 4-0 mark while scoring 48.5 PPG and averaging a whopping 609.8 total YPG in those games. Expect a close game with the Tar Heels in a position to pull the upset. 25* CFB ACC Game of the Year with the North Carolina Tar Heels (136) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (135). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (144) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (143). THE SITUATION: Texas (5-2) finally returns to action for the first time since November 7th after their 17-13 win over West Virginia as a 6.5-point favorite. Iowa State (6-2) has won three straight games with their 45-0 win over Kansas State last week as a 13.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa State is 6-1 in the Big 12 with aspirations of reaching the Big 12 championship game — so they will be feeling the pressure. Yet the Cyclones are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Iowa State gained 539 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. They also held the Wildcats to just 149 yards — but they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Now Iowa State goes back on the road where they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored by 3 points or less. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread 4 times. Texas has not played given complications with COVID — but they were ready to play last week before issues with Kansas prompted the cancellation. Head coach Tom Herman’s roster should be ready to go. The Longhorns defeated Oklahoma State by a 41-34 score in their previous game before their win over the Mountaineers to begin the month — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning their last two games by a touchdown or less against Big 12 opponents. And while Texas has only covered the point spread once in their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Longhorns are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. Herman’s teams do certainly seem to perform better with a chip on their shoulder as his teams have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Texas will also have revenge on their minds from a 23-21 loss in Ames as a 7-point underdog last season. 10* CFB Iowa State-Texas ABC-TV Special with the Texas Longhorns (144) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (143). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (123) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (124). THE SITUATION: Washington (3-7) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 20-9 victory over Cincinnati as a 2-point favorite. Dallas (3-7) ended a four-game losing streak last week with their 31-28 upset victory at Minnesota as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM PLUS THE POINTS: One good game from the Cowboys has everyone jumping on their bandwagon — even though they were outgained by the Vikings last week by -54 net yards. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a narrow win by 6 points or less. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Even after scoring 31 points last week, the Cowboys are averaging only 19.7 PPG along with 335.0 total YPG in their last three games. Dallas also surrendered 430 yards to the Vikings last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Cowboys are last in the league by allowing 31.8 PPG — and they are surrendering 36.8 PPG at home along with 396.2 total YPG. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and the Cowboys have long been Fool’s Gold when favored at home as they have failed to pay off those winning tickets in 46 of their last 78 home games laying the points. Additionally, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games as a favorite. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. And while the Football team has only covered the point spread once in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Despite their losing record, Washington is outgaining their opponents by +8.2 net Yards-Per-Game. They have lost all three of their close games decided by one scoring possession. They are winless on the road despite outgaining those opponents by +19.0 net YPG. The Football Team has been the best pass defense in the league that is holding their opponents to just 195 passing YPG. Led by rookie defensive end Chase Young, Washington is tied for third in the NFL with 32 sacks. The offense should turn the ball over less with the veteran Alex Smith under center. While his mobility is not the same as it was before his leg injury last year, he is finding his rhythm as a passer again. Smith has thrown for 325 and 390 yards in his previous two games before completing 17 of 25 passes for 166 yards in the winning effort last week. The Football Team is averaging 397.0 total YPG in their last three games with Smith starting under center. And while the Cowboys are allowing 6.1 Yards-Per-Play this season, the Football team has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 25 games against teams that allow at least 6.0 YPP.

FINAL TAKE: Washington has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 trips to Dallas to play the Cowboys — and the underdog has covered the point spread in 28 of the last 41 meetings between these two teams in this rivalry. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Washington Football Team (123) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (473) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-3) has won two of their last three games with their 23-16 win against Seattle as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (7-3) has won four of their last five contests with their 46-23 victory in Carolina last Sunday as a 6-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game against the Seahawks — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of the last 7 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Rams also generated 389 yards of offense in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Quarterback Jared Goff is only completing 62.8% of his passes on the road as compared to his 71.4% mark when playing at home — but he is averaging 7.7 Yards-Per-Attempt on the road versus his 7.5 YPA mark when at home His Quarterback Rating declines dips from a 97.2 mark at home to a 93.2 mark on the road — so perhaps the conventional wisdom that Goff has disparate home/road splits is a bit overplayed? He will not have his rock at left tackle in Andrew Whitworth who is out at least six weeks with a knee injury. But Los Angeles can lean on their elite defense that leads the league in points allowed (18.7 PPG), total yardage (296.4 YPG), Yards-Per-Play allowed (4.78), and opponent’s Passer Rating (81.0). This defense travels — they are holding their home hosts to just 276.2 total YPG. The Rams have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road with the total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. Additionally, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they are just 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. And while the Buccaneers outgained the Panthers by +357 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 200 yards. I don’t love this situation for Tampa Bay. Head coach Bruce Arians identified that his team was “really tired” having played ten straight weeks with a bye. Arians gave the team three days off which may help — but it is certainly not an advantage. The Bucs have also been listless in prime-time games with a 1-2 record with their lone win being their listless effort to begin the month at home against the Giants where they only won by a 25-23 score. Tampa Bay beats up on the bad teams in the league — they are 7-0 against teams with a defense ranked outside the top-ten in yards allowed while averaging 35.8 PPG in those contests. But they are winless in their three games against teams with a top-ten total defense while averaging just 15 PPG. Quarterback Tom Brady has been sacked 14 times this season — with nine of them occurring in their two games against New Orleans and their game against Chicago which accounts for their three losses. Led by Aaron Donald, the Rams began the week tied for second in the NFL with 31 sacks. Brady passed for 341 yards against the Panthers — but the Bucs are just 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining at least 250 passing yards in their last game. They return home to Tampa Bay where they are just 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games when favored by up to 7 points. Furthermore, the Buccaneers are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angels will also have revenge on their minds after getting blasted at home to the Buccaneers with Jameis Winston last year by a 55-40 score despite being a 9-point favorite in that September 29th game. That result may not matter much to Brady but it does to head coach Sean McVay and this Rams team. The Bucs are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games in November. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Rams (473) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (471) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (472). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (8-1) has won four games in a row after their 33-31 win against Carolina two Sundays ago as a 10-point favorite. Las Vegas (6-3) has won three straight games with their 37-12 victory against Denver last week as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City should build off their momentum as they are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Chiefs surrendered 435 yards to the Panthers in their winning effort last week, they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 4-0 with an average winning margin of +13.2 PPG while outgaining these opponents by +89.8 net YPG. Kansas City is 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Chiefs have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as the favorite. Of course, this situation also has head coach Andy Reid coming off a bye week — and his teams at KC and Philadelphia have gone 24-4 in his career with the bye week to prepare. His teams have covered the point spread in 19 of those 28 games. I tend to think that intangible may no longer translate into point spread value since it is so well-documented — but it doesn’t hurt! Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a straight-up win — and they have to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games after a win. The Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Las Vegas benefited against the Broncos with a +5 net turnover margin. The Raiders are getting outgained this season by -7.8 net YPG despite their winning record. Las Vegas has covered the point spread in all three games of their winning streak — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs’ lone loss this season was their 40-32 setback at home to the Raiders as a 10-point favorite on October 11th. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 straight games when avenging an upset loss. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (471) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (476) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (475). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-6) has lost two straight games after their 37-12 loss at Las Vegas last Sunday as a 3.5-point underdog. Miami (6-3) has won five straight games after their 29-21 win over the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday as a 1.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: We have taken Denver the last two weeks to only get burned by the inconsistent play of Drew Lock — so I endorse this after much trepidation. But simply, it will be the regret that I never forget if we do not fade the Dolphins in this spot — more on that below. On the Broncos side of the ledger, they should play better after Lock’s four turnovers helped produce a -5 net turnover margin in that loss to the Raiders. Denver has rebounded to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They also have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. And in their last 16 home games after a loss by double-digits to an AFC West foe, the Broncos have covered the point spread in 13 of these games. Additionally, Denver has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to score more than 14 points. Miami is SO due for a visit from the Regression Gods after winning and covering the point spread in five straight games. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in five straight games. Miami is getting it done from smoke and mirrors and special teams and defensive touchdowns. They had been outgained in their previous two games before outgaining the Chargers by 7 yards after their 280-yard output last week. The Tua Tagovailoa offense is averaging just 245.7 total YPG which would get someone like Kirk Cousins lambasted if not complemented by all the mistakes the opposition has been making. The Dolphins are being outgained by -53.9 net YPG this season — and in their three games, since Tagovailoa took over, they have been outgained by -149.6 net YPG. That is not a typo.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49.5 point range. Denver is injured — and I am not sure if it is good or bad that Lock has been upgraded to probable with his rib injury. Trust the process with this one — especially with the Dolphins’ odds moving to them laying more than a field goal on the road. I am not going to be surprised if the Broncos pull the upset — but take the points for insurance. 20* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Denver Broncos (476) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (406) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (405). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (6-3) looks to bounce back from their 23-17 upset loss at New England as a 7-point favorite last week for Sunday Night Football. Tennessee (6-3) also looks to rebound from a 34-17 loss at Indianapolis on Thursday Night Football last week where they were a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a revenge situation for Baltimore, who got clocked by the Titans in the AFC Divisional round last year at home by a 28-12 score despite being a 10-point favorite. Derrick Henry ran right over the Ravens’ defense with 195 rushing yards in that game. After having the interior of their run defense exposed like that, Baltimore signed defensive linemen Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams to shore up that part of their defense. Problem solved, right? Unfortunately, injuries will keep both of those players out for this game. So, fade the Ravens then, right? Well, not so fast. Sure, I wish those players were available — but it was not just Henry that did in Baltimore in that playoff game. QB Lamar Jackson committed three turnovers in that game, while the Ravens failed to convert on several 4th down opportunities that played a significant role in shifting the momentum of that game. If Lamar plays better — and the offense executes at a higher level — then Baltimore should take the Titans out of the position where they can pound the rock to Henry. The Ravens are outscoring their opponents by +8.8 PPG due to their strong defense that is holding their opponents to just 18.3 PPG along with 323.0 total YPG. Baltimore’s defense is even stingier at home where they limit their guests to only 17.8 PPG along with just 312.3 YPG. Additionally, the Ravens have held their last three opponents to 289.3 total YPG. They outgained the Patriots last week by +49 net yards but they lost the turnover battle and weather played a major role in that game. This remains a team that has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in November. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an AFC South rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. And while the Titans surrendered 293 passing yards to the Colts, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. This Tennessee has regressed from that playoff game last year — they are allowing 398.1 total YPG this season. They are also dealing with a host of injuries themselves with potentially six starters out including defensive end Jadeveon Clowney and wide receiver Adam Humphries. Despite their 6-3 record, the Titans are being outgained by -24.8 net YPG this season. Over their last three games, they are being outscored by a touchdown while managing only 321.0 YPG which has translated into just 20.3 PPG. Now they go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. One final thing about this Titans team that should always be considered: they are simply a hot mess on special teams, especially with their punter and placekicker. A +10 net turnover margin is the reason why this team has overcome poor special teams play and losing the yardage battle to their opponents. But those turnover Gods are a fickle beast.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against AFC rivals — and the Ravens have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against AFC foes. I don’t love the injury situation for Baltimore — but it is not great with Tennessee either. The bottom line is that I will regret not investing in this situation at a 25* level. Let’s attack! 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (406) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (405). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (401) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (402). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (5-1) takes the field again after their 20-18 win at Kansas State two weeks ago as a 14-point favorite. Oklahoma (5-2) has won four games in a row with their 62-9 victory against Kansas two weeks ago as a 38.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: I held off on this play until getting the final update on the Oklahoma State injury situation. The reports are that this team is back to 100% health with the extra week off to prepare for this game. Running back Chuba Hubbard, wide receiver Tylan Wallace, and three starters on the offensive line have been either out or slowed with injuries — so this is a significant development. The Cowboys managed only 256 yards against the Wildcats in their last game which was the lowest yardage output for them since 2014 — but these injuries played a role in that output. Oklahoma State should be racing to go in this game —and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after their bye week. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss — and they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up win. Oklahoma State has a solid defense even above typical Big 12 standards as they are holding their opponents to just 17.8 PPG along with only 311.7 total YPG. They are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as a road dog. Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Sooners have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Oklahoma flexed their muscles on defense by limiting the Jayhawks to just 246 yards. But the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing no more than 275 yards in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they are also 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games as an underdog. The road team has covered the point spread in 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams — expect a close game. 10* CFB Oklahoma State-Oklahoma ABC-TV Special with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (401) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (402). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Central Florida Knights (344) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (343). THE SITUATION: Central Florida (5-2) has won three straight games after their 38-13 win over Temple last week as a 28.5-point favorite last Saturday. Cincinnati (7-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 55-13 win over East Carolina as a 27.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Central Florida has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. After losing to Tulsa and Memphis, the Knights have rattled off three-straight wins while scoring 44.3 PPG in those games. This team is an offensive juggernaut under head coach Josh Heupel. They lead the nation by averaging a whopping 619.1 total YPG in their up-tempo attack. Sophomore quarterback Dillon Gabriel has found a nice rhythm as he has completed 57 of 95 passes for 1018 yards with nine touchdown passes and no interceptions. For the season, the lefty is completing 63.3% of his passes with 23 touchdown passes and just two interceptions while averaging 393.6 passing YPG which leads the nation. Their +129 net yardage edge over the Owls was the slimmest margin in their last three contests — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after outgaining their last three opponents by at least +125 net yards. They have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 54 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points. Additionally, the Knights have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. The Bearcats benefited from a +3 net turnover margin against the Pirates — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Cincinnati has college football playoff aspirations on their minds — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning at least seven games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Bearcats have feasted on a soft schedule — their opponents have a combined 15-13 record with 11 of those victories coming from SMU and Memphis. The Bearcats are allowing only 12.4 PPG this season but they have yet to play an opponent who pushes the pace like the Knights. This Cincy may be overrated given their easy schedule. Tulsa ranks just ahead of them in Defensive Expected Points Allowed — and Central Florida put up 455 yards against the Golden Hurricane defense.

FINAL TAKE: UCF should put up plenty of points against the Bearcats who are not as comfortable playing in shootouts. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games with the total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games away from home with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. The Bearcats upset the Knights last season by a 27-24 score at home as a 3.5-point underdog on October 4th — so this is a prime opportunity for UCF to exact some revenge. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Underdog of the Year with the Central Florida Knights (344) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (343). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (358) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (357). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (3-0) enters this showdown of undefeated teams coming off a 49-27 victory against Rutgers as a 37.5-point favorite. Indiana (4-0) comes off a 24-0 win at Michigan State as a 7.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio State’s victory over the Scarlet Knights was not as close as the final score indicated with Rutgers scoring from a 58-yard punt return and then a late garbage touchdown in the second half. The Buckeyes went into the locker room at halftime with a 35-3 lead. Ohio State should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Buckeyes have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after scoring at least 40 points. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favored. Ohio State has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when favored. Indiana has been a nice story — but they are just 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a win by at least 20 points. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a shutout victory. The Hoosiers limited the Spartans to just 191 yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Now Indiana goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 road games when getting 14.5 to 21 points.

FINAL TAKE: Ohio State crushed Indiana by a 51-10 score last season in September. There remains a significant talent differential between these two teams. And the Buckeyes usually get riled up when facing good competition as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CFB Indiana-Ohio State Fox-TV Special with the Ohio State Buckeyes (358) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (357). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Southern Eagles (365) plus the points versus the Army Black Knights (366). THE SITUATION: Georgia Southern (6-2) has won three games in a row with their 40-38 win against Texas State last week as a 12.5-point favorite. Army (6-2) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday as a 3-point underdog with their 38-12 loss at Tulane.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia Southern has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win by 7 points or less against a conference opponent. Georgia Southern has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. The Eagles did get their ground game rolling last week as they generated 386 yards on the ground while outgaining the Bobcats by +356 net rushing yards which is a great sign for them in this game. Georgia Southern has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after rushing for at least 300 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least 200 yards. Now the Eagles go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games. Army endured a -3 net turnover margin in their loss last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 39 games after having a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. The Black Knights have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 home games after winning two of their last three games. Army may be  a paper tiger — three of their victories have come against FCS opponents with their other three wins being against teams ranked 108th, 122nd, and 123rd in the ESPN Football Power Index (for what those rankings are worth). The Black Knights’ losses have been against Cincinnati and the Green Wave last week — and they have only scored 22 combined points in those two games. Army may struggle to get their triple option rushing attack going against this Appalachian State defense that leads the Sun Belt Conference by holding opposing rushers to just 3.48 Yards-Per-Carry. This is expected to be a lower-scoring game with the total dropping below 42. But the Black Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games with the over/under set at 42 or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing at home with the total no higher than 42.

FINAL TAKE: Army has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Don’t be surprised if Georgia Southern pulls the upset — but take the points for some insurance. 10* CFB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Georgia Southern Eagles (365) plus the points versus the Army Black Knights (366). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Louisville Cardinals (326) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (325). THE SITUATION: Louisville (2-6) has lost two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 31-17 loss at Virginia as a 6.5-point underdog last Saturday. Syracuse (1-7) has lost five games in a row with their 16-13 loss to Boston College as a 14.5-point underdog two weeks ago on November 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS MINUS THE POINTS: Turnovers were the culprit for Louisville not being in a position to defeat the Cavaliers. Junior quarterback threw an interception that was returned for an 85-yard touchdown in the first quarter that served as a 10 to 14-point swing with the Cardinals in the red zone. Cunningham then fumbled in Virginia territory at the 8:22 minute mark in the fourth quarter to ruin a potential game-tying touchdown drive. Louisville outgained the Cavaliers by +110 net yards. Head coach Scott Satterfield’s team should bounce-back as they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a point spread defeat. Furthermore, Louisville has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. The Cardinals have been held back by a -12 net turnover margin with their 18 giveaways ranking 3rd most in the FBS. Louisville is outgaining their opponents by +48.5 net YPG this season which tracks with their preseason expectations. Satterfield returned 16 starters from last year’s 8-5 team. Defense was considered the biggest concern for this team but they did hold Notre Dame to only 12 points and they also held Florida State to just 16 points. Their return home where they are outgaining their opponents by +128.7 net YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as a favorite. Cunningham is a dynamic talent at quarterback who rushed for 197 yards with two touchdowns in the losing effort against the Cavaliers. He is completing 63.2% of his passes for 1907 yards with 15 touchdown passes but his nine interceptions are a problem — but he faces an Orange defense that has forced only one turnover in their last three games. Louisville averages 38.0 PPG along with 530.0 total YPG in their four home games — so they have the offensive firepower to blow Syracuse out. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 3 straight games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. Syracuse has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after a loss by a touchdown or less again an ACC opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Orange managed only 240 yards of offense in the loss. Syracuse entered the season with only 11 starters back from last year’s 5-7 that finished only 2-6 in ACC play. Injuries and opt-outs have further decimated what was already a shaky roster. The Orange are now without their top two running backs from their original depth chart along with their top two defensive backs including safety Andre Cisco who enter the leading the nation with his 12 career interceptions (which correlates with the steep decline in the team’s takeaways). Syracuse also lost their starting quarterback Tommy Devito in mid-October. After three subpar starts from senior Rex Culpepper, head coach Dino Babers turned to a true freshman in JaCobian Morgan to make his first start against the Eagles two weeks ago. Morgan was OK that week — he completed 19 of 30 passes for 188 yards with a TD and an interception. But this is a tough assignment being asked to outduel Cunningham leading a team that is just 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. Syracuse has also failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 58 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points.

FINAL TAKE: Louisville will not have their top running back, Javian Hawkins, who has opted-out for the rest of the season — but they expect to get their speedy junior Hassan Hill to return to action after missing the last three games. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in their last 4 opportunities to host the Orange. This may look like a lot of points to lay for a 2-6 team — but let’s trust the wisdom of the oddsmakers. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the Louisville Cardinals (326) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (325). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (322) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (321). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-3) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 23-16 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 3-point underdog. Arizona (6-3) has won four of their last five games after their 32-30 win against Buffalo as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle should respond with a strong effort tonight. They are a decisive 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an NFC West opponent. They are also 12-5-2 ATS in their last 19 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 51 of their last 83 games after losing two games in a row. And while Seattle has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Injuries have hit this team hard. I did not make a call on this game until Thursday, given the potential attrition to tonight’s roster. Cornerbacks Quinton Dunbar and Shaquille Griffin along with running back Chris Carson are not expected to play. Starting center Ethan Pocic is also out tonight as he continues in the concussion protocol — and that is significant. But head coach Pete Carroll does expect backup center Kyle Fuller to play after the high ankle sprain he suffered on Sunday. That development was essential for me to endorse the Seahawks tonight. Carroll also expects wide receiver Tyler Lockett and running back Carlos Hyde to play as well. Quarterback Russell Wilson needs to reduce his turnovers after being responsible for seven in the last two games. Seattle has lost the turnover battle in these last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 36 of their last 55 games after having a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. The Seahawks defense is worst in the league by allowing 448.3 total YPG — but this unit has been playing better despite the losing streak. They have held their last three opponents to 386.7 YPG which is more than 60 YPG below their current season average. Safety Jamal Adams has been injured but he did return to register seven tackles with two sacks and a forced fumble against the Rams. The Seahawks have also recently acquired defensive linemen Carlos Dunlap and Snacks Harrison who should both improve the pass rush and run defense for this team. Seattle returns home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the total set at 49.5 or higher. The Seahawks are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games in November. Arizona needed the miracle Hail Mary play from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins to steal that victory over the Bills last week. Yet the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a win at home where they did not cover the point spread. Arizona is also dealing with a host of injuries — especially on their defensive line which makes me a bit less concerned about the Seattle offensive line. Defensive end Zach Allen went on the Injured Reserve with an ankle injury — he is the fourth defensive linemen to get placed on the IR for this team. Nose tackle Corey Peters is already out the season with a knee and Pro Bowl linebacker Chandler Jones is on the IR with his biceps injury. Now defensive end Jordan Phillips has been declared out with a foot injury for tonight. This Cardinals defense has declined as of late (they really miss Jones). They are allowing 32.7 PPG over their last three games along with 417.7 YPG with all three of those opponents scoring at least 30 points. Arizona has gained at least 438 yards in five straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 375 yards in their last game. And while they have rushed for at least 159 yards in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played on a Thursday night — and Seattle is 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games played on a Thursday night. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (322) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (426) minus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (425). THE SITUATION: Tulsa (4-1) has won four straight games with their 28-24 victory over SMU last Saturday as a 1-point favorite. Tulane (5-4) has won three straight games with their 38-12 win over Army on Saturday as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN HURRICANE MINUS THE POINTS: Tulsa rallied from a 24-7 halftime deficit to defeat the Mustangs. Don’t tear up your tickets with head coach Phillip Montgomery’s team as they have also rallied from an 18-point deficit to Central Florida and a 14-point hole to East Carolina. This team seems to be putting it all together this season after going 4-8 last year in a rugged schedule that featured nine bowl teams. That group dealt with a handful of heartbreaking missed field goals that overwhelmed their +45 net YPG mark in conference play. The Golden Hurricane is outscoring their opponents by +7.2 PPG this season while outgaining them by +43.4 net YPG. Tulsa gained 455 yards against SMU — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Golden Hurricane is also 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after a point spread victory. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games at home against teams with winning records. And in their last 26 games overall against teams with a winning record, Montgomery’s teams have covered the point spread in 19 of these contests. Tulane has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a victory by at least 20 points. The Green Wave limited the Black Knights to just 303 yards of offense — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. This Tulane defense is still allowing 27.6 PPG along with 421.7 total YPG — and those marks rise to 33.8 PPG and 467.8 YPG in their five games on the road. The Green Wave have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Tulane has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Tulane has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 trips to Tulsa to play the Golden Hurricane. They have won three in a row against Tulsa after their 38-26 win at home as a 10-point favorite last year. That loss should provide bulletin-board fodder for Montgomery for this rematch. 10* CFB Tulane-Tulsa ESPN Special with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (426) minus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (425). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Central Michigan Chippewas (314) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (313). THE SITUATION: Central Michigan (2-0) remained unbeaten so far this season with their 40-10 win at Northern Illinois as a 5.5-point favorite last Wednesday. Western Michigan (2-0) comes off a 41-38 win against Toledo last Wednesday as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIPPEWAS PLUS THE POINT(S): Central Michigan has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Chippewas has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Central Michigan defense is playing outstanding as they lead the Mid-American Conference by holding their opponents to just 18.5 PPG. They already have four takeaways with 13 tackles-for-loss — and they have allowed only one play of more than 40 yards. They have a balanced offense that is averaging 210.5 rushing YPG and 219.5 passing YPG. They return  home where they have won all seven of their games since the start of last season. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home. Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. And while the Broncos have won and covered the point spread in their first two games after defeating Akron by a 58-13 score in their opening game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after winning and covering the point spread in two straight games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 31 points in two straight games. Western Michigan did surrender 501 yards against the Rockets — and they are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. They needed to recover an onside kick with under a minute to go to orchestrate their 10-point rally with under three minutes to go to eke out that game against Toledo. The Broncos have won the turnover battle in their first two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after enjoying a +1 or better turnover margin in their last game. And in their last 9 games on the road, Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Central Michigan will be looking to avenge a 31-15 loss at Western Michigan last season which should ensure they are very motivated for this MAC West division clash. 10* CFB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Central Michigan Chippewas (314) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (275) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (275). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (3-5) has won two games in a row after their 34-20 win at home against Detroit as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Chicago (5-4) has lost three straight games after their 24-17 loss at Philadelphia as a 6.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago outgained the Eagles by +147 net yards in the losing effort last week. They limited Philadelphia to just 228 yards while generating 375 yards of offense. The Bears have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Turnovers are killing Chicago as they have lost the turnover battle in each of the games in their three-game losing streak. But the Bears have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 home games after losing the turnover battle in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 23 games after enduring at least a -1 net turnover margin in at least three straight games. Chicago returns home where they have covered the point spread in 41 of their last 65 home games after losing two games in a row. They are also 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 home games as an underdog. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, the Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning at least two games in a row. Minnesota benefited from a +3 net turnover margin against the Lions — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after having at least a +3 net turnover margin in their last game. The Vikings defense has been a disappointment all season — they are allowing 29.3 PPG while surrendering 412.9 total YPG. Detroit gained 421 yards against them last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they are getting outgained by -24.0 net YPG. Kirk Cousins will be making his tenth start on Monday Night Football where he has lost all nine previous games — and Minnesota failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against the Bears — and they have failed to cover the points spread in 14 of their last 17 games at Soldier Field. With the temperatures dropping into the low-40s, lets fade the road favorite dome team playing in cold weather. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (275) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots  (274) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (273). THE SITUATION: New England (3-5) snapped a four-game losing streak on Monday with their 30-27 victory over the New York Jets as a 9-point favorite. Baltimore (6-2) has won four of their last five games after their 24-10 win at Indianapolis last Sunday as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road against an AFC East rival. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after losing four of their last five games. And in their last 5 games played on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football, New England has covered the point spread in 4 of these contests. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Additionally, New England has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in November. Baltimore covered the point spread in their upset win over Indianapolis — but that was just the first time in their last three games that they met point spread expectations. The Ravens have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. And in their last 5 games when favored, Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: It is not often that a Bill Belichick-coached team is an underdog in Gillette Stadium — and the Patriots have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home as an underdog. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the New England Patriots  (274) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (265) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (266). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-5) has lost two of their last three games after their 34-27 loss in Atlanta as a 4.5-point underdog. Las Vegas (5-3) has won three of their last four games after their 31-26 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers last week as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a straight-up win. Las Vegas won that game despite being outgained by -120 net yards. The Raiders may have won five of their eight games — but they are being outscored by -1.5 PPG while being outgained by -14.1 Yards-Per-Game. Now Vegas returns home where they are just 1-2 this season while being outscored by -7.3 net PPG and outgained by -36.3 net YPG. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Denver has lost two of their last three games but they outgained these opponents by +11.0 net YPG. The Broncos should play tough in this game as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. Denver did generate 405 yards of offense in that game as they outgained the Falcons by 42 net yards. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Denver does expect to get starting cornerbacks A.J. Buoy and Bryce Callahan back for this game after they did not play against Atlanta. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (265) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (277) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (278). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-6) has lost two games in a row with their 31-26 loss at home to Las Vegas last Sunday as a 1-point underdog. Miami (5-3) has won four games in a row with their 34-31 upset win at Arizona as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles lost their fifth game of the season on the final play once again last week with a dropped pass in the end zone taking victory away from head coach Anthony Lynn’s team. Everyone is banging away at Lynn this week for his game management late in the game. Perhaps some of these criticisms are valid — but this dynamic is overplayed. While I disagree with those in the analytics community that thinks winning close games is solely a function of luck, I certainly agree that winning and losing close games often is dependent on one or two plays — and often those plays experience plenty of variance regarding the random events that take place within them (like dropping a touchdown pass). The ability to consistently play close games is the more predictable variable for this Chargers team than what happens in the final moments. Los Angeles’ has had a halftime lead six times this season. All six of their losses have been by seven points or less — and all those losses were by a combined 24 points. And going back to last year, the Chargers have seen 15 of their 17 losses decided by one scoring possession. What is more consistent is yardage numbers — and LA is outgaining their opponents by +61.5 net YPG. The Chargers are getting their ground game going to complement rookie QB, Justin Herbert, as they are averaging 146 rushing YPG over their last five games. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two games in a row. They also have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games on the road after a game where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Chargers outgained the Raiders last week by +120 net yards as they held them to just 320 yards of offense. LA is 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games away from home. Miami was outgained by -130 net yards in their upset win last week. And that accomplishment came on the heels of their upset win over the Rams the previous week where they won despite being outgained by a whopping -326 net yards! The Dolphins scored two defensive touchdowns against the Rams before returning a 36-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown last week against the Cardinals. Scoring defensive touchdowns to overcome getting outgained by more than 100 YPG is simply not sustainable. Miami is being outgained by -61.5 net YPG — and they are losing the yardage battle at home by -106.8 net YPG. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 25 home games after a win by a field goal or less. And while Miami has won five of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 29 home games after winning five or six of their last seven contests. Now this team returns home where they are an ugly 22-46-1 ATS in their last 69 games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers are 34-15-4 ATS in their last 53 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games as a dog getting up to 3 points. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (277) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (256) minus points versus the Houston Texans (255). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (5-3) comes off their bye week having lost two of their last three games after their 16-6 upset loss at home to Las Vegas on November 1st as a 1-point favorite. Houston (2-6) snapped a two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 27-25 win at Jacksonville as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a double-digit loss at home. They do expect to get running back Nick Chubb back for this game for he missed the last four games with an injury. Chubb and running back Kareem Hunt should have big days against this Texans defense that ranks last in the league by allowing 159.5 rushing Yards-Per-Game. The Browns are 3-1 at home with an average winning margin of +4.5 Points-Per-Game. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The  Browns are also 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 home games as the favorite. Houston is due for a letdown as they are just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. And while the Texans gained 374 yards in the last game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Houston stays on the road for a second straight week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games after playing their last game on the road. The Texans were outgained by -29 net yards to the Jaguars. They are just 1-3 on the road while being outscored by -6.3 PPG and being outgained by -91.3 net YPG. They are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road — and they are only 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Houston has lost and failed to cover the point spread in all five of their games this season against teams with a winning record — and all five of those teams have scored at least 30 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog — and they have not covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 20* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Cleveland Browns (256) minus points versus the Houston Texans (255). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (156) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (155). THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (4-3) looks to bounce-back from their 38-35 upset loss at home to Liberty last Saturday as a 17-point favorite. Miami (6-1) has won three games in a row with their 44-41 win at North Carolina State as a 10.5-point favorite last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOKIES MINUS THE POINTS: Virginia Tech thought they had staved-off the embarrassing upset last week as they blocked Liberty’s attempt at a game-winning field goal and returned it for their potential 42-35 victory. But Hokies’ head coach Justin Fuente had called a time out in an attempt to freeze the Flames’ kicker which instead stymied his special teams’ great play. Liberty went on to kick the game-winning field goal. Virginia Tech should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Hokies have scored 77 combined points in their last two games — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 31 points in two straight games. Virginia Tech stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Hokies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after winning at least four of their last five games. And while the Hurricanes preceded their victory the Wolfpack with a 19-14 win versus Virginia, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two games in a row by no more than 7 points against ACC foes. Miami put up 620 yards of offense against NC State in their win — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Hurricanes have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Miami has won the turnover battle in each of their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after their turnover chain helped them accrue a +1 or better turnover margin in at least two straight games. The Hurricanes stay on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to score 39.0 PPG while allowing these foes to average 492.0 total YPG. Miami is not getting much from their running game outside D’Eriq King either — lead running back Cam’ron Harris has not topped 50 rushing yards in his last six games.

FINAL TAKE: The Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set at 63 or higher. 20* CFB Miami-Virginia Tech ESPN Special with the Virginia Tech Hokies (156) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (164) plus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (163). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (1-2) looks to bounce back from their 49-7 loss at Iowa last week as a 5.5-point underdog. Indiana (3-0) look to build off their 38-21 upset victory over Michigan last Saturday as a 4.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINTS: Michigan State was likely due for an emotional letdown after upsetting Michigan in Ann Arbor the previous week. A -3 net turnover margin did Sparty in against the Hawkeyes. Michigan State committed 7 turnovers in their opening week upset loss against Rutgers. The Spartans have a -7 net turnover margin on the season. Now Michigan State returns home where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games as a dog getting 7.5 to 14 points. The Spartans have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 26 home games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 52 point range. Indiana had failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games after a win at home by at least 17 points. The Hoosiers benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game. Indiana has been fortunate with turnover luck as they have a +6 net turnover margin on the season. Now they go back on the road where have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: While I am not surprised that the Hoosiers have started the season with three wins, they don’t deserve to be touchdown road favorites — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games when favored. Michigan State's first-year head coach Mel Tucker is good. 10* CFB Indiana-Michigan State ABC-TV Special with the Michigan State Spartans (164) plus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (163). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Minnesota Golden Gophers (128) plus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (127). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-2) won their first game of the season last week with their 41-14 win at Illinois as a 7.5-point favorite. Iowa (1-2) also snapped a two-game losing streak to win their opening game of the season last Saturday with their 49-7 victory over Michigan State as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN GOPHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Minnesota should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Golden Gophers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory by at least three touchdowns against a Big Ten rival. The Minnesota defense played their best game of the season by holding the Illini to just 287 yards of offense. The Gophers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Minnesota offense has been quite good as they are scoring 36.3 Points-Per-Game while averaging 444.3 total YPG. Running back Mo Ibrahim leads the nation by averaging 190.3 rushing YPG. They have 85 combined points in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 31 points in two straight games. The Gophers return home where they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. Additionally, Minnesota is 28-12-2 ATS in their last 42 games in November. Iowa may be due for an emotional letdown after they crushed the Spartans last week. The Hawkeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. Iowa scored on a 54-yard punt return for a touchdown and then a 54-yard interception touchdown return to close out the second quarter and go into halftime with a 35-0 lead. Yet Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after owning at least a 17-point lead at halftime in their last game. The Hawkeyes have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And in their last 6 games are not allowing more than 20 points in their last game, Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota will have revenge on their minds for this one as Iowa ruined their unbeaten season last year on November 16th with their 23-19 win in Iowa City as a 3.5-point favorite. The Golden Gophers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog under head coach P.J. Fleck. 25* CFB Big Ten Underdog of the Month with the Minnesota Golden Gophers (128) plus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (127). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (121) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (122). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (5-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 24-10 upset loss at home to Baltimore as a 1-point favorite. Tennessee (6-2) ended a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 24-17 win against Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Indianapolis outgained the Ravens last week by +79 net yards after holding them to just 260 total yards. Baltimore scored on a defensive touchdown from a 65-yard fumble recovery that helped to make the winning difference. Indianapolis is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Colts are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Indy is scoring a healthy 26.0 PPG this season — and that mark has risen to a 27.3 PPG clip in their last three games with them averaging 378.3 total YPG during that span. Quarterback Philip Rivers is completing 67.9% of his passes with 2087 passing yards and a 7.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average. And while tight end Jack Doyle is out for this game as he recovers from a concussion, Rivers will get wide receiver, T.Y. Hilton, back from the groin injury that has kept him out the last few weeks. The Colts’ offensive line leads the league by allowing only eight sacks this season — and the pass rush is a weakness for the Titans. Rivers should have plenty of time to pick apart the Tennessee secondary. Indianapolis also leads the NFL by allowing only 290.0 total YPG. They go back on the road where they are outgaining their opponents by +46.7 net YPG. The Colts are also 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games in November. Tennessee defeated the Bears last week despite getting outgained by -147 net yards. The Titans managed only 228 total yards against Chicago — and they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Despite winning six of their eight games, Tennessee is getting outgained by -10.2 net YPG. The Titans have eked out five of the six games they have played that have been decided by one scoring possession. Tennessee surrendered 319 passing yards to Nick Foles last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And while the Titans rank 7th in the league by scoring 29.0 PPG this year, they are scoring only 22.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 320.3 total YPG which is -63.6 net YPG below their season mark. Additionally, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow AFC opponents. Furthermore, the Titans will be missing a couple of important players with both wide receiver Adam Humphries and cornerback Adoree’ Jackson out with injuries.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their meetings last season with the road team winning both times. The Colts have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 meetings with the Titans including covering the point spread in six of their last eight trips to Nashville to play Tennessee in their building. Indianapolis is 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 Thursday Night Football games — and the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on Thursday nights. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (121) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (122). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Western Michigan Broncos (120) minus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (119). THE SITUATION: Western Michigan (1-0) opened their season last week with a 58-13 win at Akron as a 19.5-point favorite. Toledo (1-0) opened their season last Wednesday with a 38-3 victory over Bowling Green.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: Western Michigan dominated the Zips last week by outgaining them by +228 net yards. Redshirt sophomore Kaleb Eleby completed 12 of 16 passes for 262 yards in his first collegiate start — and he tossed three touchdown passes. He leads the Broncos’ offense to 484 total yards — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Eleby redshirted last season during Jon Wassink’s senior season where he won the Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year. In 2018, Eleby completed 92 of 147 passes for 1092 yards with four touchdown passes in five games after Wassink suffered a knee injury. He threw for 293 yards against Toledo that season. This is a consistent program in the fourth season under head coach Tim Lester which was bowl eligible for the sixth straight season last year with their 7-6 record. Eleven starters return from the group that lost to Western Kentucky in the First Responder Bowl. Six starters are back on defense with the unit that held Akron to just 256 yards last week. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 54 games after allowing no more than 14 points in their last game. Western Michigan is also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games at home. Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Rockets have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Now they go on the road where they were winless in four conference games last season while being outscored by -28 Points-Per-Game. Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Western Michigan will be looking to avenge a 31-24 loss at Toledo last season as a 1.5-point underdog on October 5th. 10* CFB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Western Michigan Broncos (120) minus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (119). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Jets (476) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (475) and THE SITUATION: New York (0-8) lost their eighth straight game last week with their 35-9 loss at Kansas City as a 20-point underdog. New England (2-5) has lost four straight games after their 24-21 loss at Buffalo last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: This New England roster is a far cry from previous Bill Belichick teams — yet his teams have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 road games when favored by 7.5 to 10 points. This team lacks all semblances of a passing attack with Julian Edelman now on Injured Reserve and last year’s draft bust, N’Keal Harry, out with a concussion. Belichick listed 17 players as questionable for this game — and even given his aggressive use of the injury list, this is a ton of players for what was already a depleted roster. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 6 points or less. New England is also 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Patriots are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last thirteen games when playing on field turf. New York is an ugly team to play right now with them being a legitimate threat to go winless this season. Yet they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after losing at least five games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing at least six games in a row. And while they have only covered the point spread once this season, the Jets have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Defense has certainly been a problem for this team — they allowed Kansas City to average 7.4 Yards-Per-Play en route to gaining 496 yards last week. But New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.5 YPP. The Jets have not scored more than 10 points in four straight games — yet they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not scoring more than 17 points in four straight games.

FINAL TAKE: New England is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. Hold your nose if you need to (I will!) — but the Jets’ is the “right” side tonight. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Jets (476) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (473). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (6-2) enters this game coming off a 25-23 win at New York against the Giants as a 13-point favorite for Monday Night Football. New Orleans (5-2) comes off a 26-23 win at Chicago in overtime last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay was flat on Monday as a double-digit favorite as they were perhaps looking ahead to this NFC South showdown. The Buccaneers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on a short week on Sunday after featuring on Monday Night Football. Tampa Bay allowed 367 yards to the Giants in the win — but they are 20-9-3 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bucs have one of the best defenses in the league as they are allowing only 20.6 PPG along with just 299.5 total YPG. Tampa Bay also boasts the best-run defense in the league as they hold their opponents to just 70.4 rushing YPG. They have held three opponents to under 50 rushing yards this season. This stout defense is a great combination with the Tom Brady-led offense. What is underrated about Brady is that his offenses limit turnovers. He threw two interceptions in the opening game loss in the Big Easy against the Saints — but he has thrown only two interceptions in his last six games. Furthermore, New Orleans has committed just five turnovers in their last seven games — and they have won the turnover battle in six of their last seven games. Brady is getting comfortable in the Bruce Arians offense. He is averaging 2 touchdown passes per game over his last three starts — and he is completing over 70% of his passes in his last two starts. Since Week Three, Brady has 17 touchdown passes to just one interception. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after a win on the road by 3 points or less. Their victory over the Bears came off a 27-24 win against Carolina — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning their last two games by a field goal or less. And while some bettors may consider the Saints “due” because they have not covered the point spread in their last three games, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning their last two games where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Saints defense is an issue as they are allowing 28.1 PPG this season. They are just 16th in the league by allowing 237.9 passing YPG — and they ave allowed two touchdowns of more than 60 yards. Their win over the Bears flew Over the 41 point Total — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams met in Brady’s first game in a Tampa Bay uniform with the Saints winning by a 34-23 score. Brady completed only 23 of 36 passes for what is now his third-lowest completion percentage with the Buccaneers. But New Orleans managed only 82 rushing yards in that game which is their lowest output of the season. Wide receiver Michael Thomas is questionable to return to the field today after missing much of the season. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games when playing with revenge against a team that scored at least 28 points against them. 25* NFC South Game of the Year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (468) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Las Vegas Raiders (467). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-5) looks to bounce back from a 31-30 loss at Denver last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Las Vegas (4-3) has won two of their last three games after their 16-6 upset win at Cleveland as a 1-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): That was the fifth game this season that Los Angeles has lost a game decided by seven points or less. All five of the Chargers’ losses have been decided by a combined 19 points. Despite winning only two of their seven games, head coach Anthony Lynn’s team is outgaining their opponents by +51.1 net YPG. They should respond with a strong effort this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after suffering an upset loss in their last game. Additionally, the Chargers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Chargers’ offense is beginning to click under rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. They are scoring 32.0 PPG while averaging 439.7 total YPG with Herbert getting his top two weapons in the passing game, wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, healthy and on the field together at the same time. Los Angeles has scored at least 27 points in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 25 points in four straight contests. The Chargers are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two of their last three contests. The Raiders held the Browns to just 223 yards last week in the weather that limited the passing attacks for both teams. But Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not giving up more than 14 points in their last contest. Despair their winning record, the Raiders are only outgaining their opponents by +1.7 net YPG — and they are getting outscored by -2.3 PPG. They stay on the road for a second straight week where they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games when favored. And in their last 8 games played on field turf, Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread 6 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have had this game circled on their calendars all year after getting swept by the Raiders last year. Los Angeles lost the first meeting in Oakland by a 26-24 score before getting upset in the rematch in LA by a 24-17 score as a 7-point favorite on December 22nd. This is expected to be a high-scoring game with the Total set in the low 50s — but the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher and the Chargers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. 25* AFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (468) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Las Vegas Raiders (467). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (453) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (454). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-4) has won three of their last four games after their 31-30 upset win at Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point underdog. Atlanta (2-6) has won two of their last three games with their 25-17 win at Carolina as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: The Falcons are not a reliable favorite laying more than 4 points. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 home games when laying up to a touchdown. They do come off an upset win where they averaged 6.08 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. The Falcons also allowed the Panthers to average 6.20 YPP — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight home games after allowing their last opponent to average at lest 6.0 YPP. Defense is the Achilles’ heel for this team as they are allowing their opponents to score 28.0 PPG while averaging 410.6 total YPG. Atlanta returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Denver generated 351 yards in their win over the Chargers despite only having the football for 24:07 minutes in that game. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while Denver has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after covering the point spread in at least two of their last three games. The Broncos have a stout defense that is third in the NFL in Red Zone Defense. Over their last three games, they have held their opponents to just 22.0 PPG along with only 339.7 total YPG. This defense makes them dangerous underdogs as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when getting the points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. Denver has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in November — and the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but take the points) Underdog Special with the Denver Broncos (453) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (314) plus the points versus the Brigham Young University Cougars (313). THE SITUATION: Boise State (2-0) won their second-straight game this season with their 49-30 win at Air Force last Saturday as a 13-point favorite. BYU (7-0) remained unbeaten this season last Saturday with their 41-10 victory at home against Western Kentucky as a 31.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Boise State quarterback Hank Bachmeier did not get on the plane to Air Force last week for an undisclosed reason — the Broncos did have one player who tested positive for COVID but privacy reasons preclude the release of that information (and they had another player not make the trip). Just as well, competitively, as it allowed Jack Sears to get his shot under center. The USC transfer completed 17 of 20 passes for 280 yards with three touchdown passes (no interceptions) with another 36 rushing yards with a touchdown. Boise State has not announced their starting quarterback for this game — frankly, I think Sears is better but I was prepared to still back the Broncos if Bachmeier was the confirmed starter. Put another way, if Bachmeier starts but struggles, head coach Bryan Harsin is going to turn to Sears. As it is, the Broncos have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 home games after a win by at least five touchdowns against a conference rival. Sears led an offense that generated 459 yards last week — and they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Boise State did allow the Falcons to gain 484 yards in that game but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Broncos have only forced one turnover this season — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games after not forcing more than one turnover in two straight games. They return home to their blue field where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games. They also have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog. BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a victory by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The Cougars have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. BYU has not allowed more than 267 yards in two straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in two straight games. This is the Cougars’ best start since 2001 — but their best competition has been against middling Houston and Navy teams this season. BYU was a two-touchdown or more favorite in their other five games this season. And this remains a program that entered the season with a 14-74 straight-up record against top-25 teams since 1972. The Cougars have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in November.

FINAL TAKE: This game does have playoff implications with BYU ranked 9th in the AP poll with Boise State ranked 21st but a potential playoff team if they go undefeated to win the Mountain West Conference. The Broncos will be looking to avenge a 28-25 upset loss at BYU last year on October 19th where they were 7-point favorites. Boise State has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a Friday night. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Game of the Year with the Boise State Broncos (314) plus the points versus the Brigham Young University Cougars (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (306) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (305). THE SITUATION: Colorado State (0-1) lost its opening game of the season last Thursday in their 38-17 upset loss at Fresno State as a 2.5-point favorite. Wyoming (1-1) comes off a 31-7 win at home against Hawai’i last Friday as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Colorado finally played their first game of the season last week after having their opening game with New Mexico canceled because of some COVID issues with the Lobos. The Rams also had COVID issues that kept sophomore wide receiver Dante Wright and tight end, Trey McBride, out for that game. With Warren Jackson leaving the team earlier this fall, those absences left this offense thin with their passing targets. Getting the updated COVID lists for all of these teams is simply essential before investing. Both Wright and McBride will return for this game which will make a huge difference. Wright is a speedy sophomore and McBride is a potential NFL prospect. First-year head coach Steve Addazio was frustrated with the mistakes his team made last week. Said the former Boston College head coach after the game: “We've just got to get rid of the massive amount of mistakes that we had on both sides of the ball … Blown coverages, misaligned on defense ... Then (on offense), we had a couple of ridiculous mistakes that were drive-killers … We just need to be way, way more consistent.” The biggest jumps in improvement often come after the opening game of the season — I expect a much better effort from this Rams team tonight. As it is, Colorado State has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Rams have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least 20 points. And in their last 5 games after failing to score at last 20 points, Colorado State has covered the point spread in 4 of these games. They returned 15 starters from last year’s team that was only 4-8 — but they did outgain their Mountain West Conference foes by +34 Yards-Per-Game. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games. Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset victory by at least 10 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games if they come off a home game where they pulled off an upset victory by double-digits. The Cowboys only committed one turnover in that game which helped them win the turnover battle for the second-straight week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not turning the ball over more than once in their last game. We had Wyoming in that game in just a great situation with them returning home to host the Rainbow Warriors in very cold weather. The Cowboys have now won seven straight games at home to improve their 30-15 straight-up mark in the last forty-five games at War Memorial Stadium. But Wyoming has lost six of their last eight games away from home. Twelve starters returned from the team last year that finished 8-5 — but they lost their top three tacklers from that group. Nevada rolled up 496 yards against them in their opening game loss in Reno. Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games when laying 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have won the last four Border Wars between these two teams after last year’s 17-7 victory at home in Laramie. Look for Colorado State to be in a position to pull the upset tonight in Addazio’s second game with the team. 25* CFB Thursday CBS Sports Network Game of the Year with the Colorado State Rams (306) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (302) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (301). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (4-4) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 37-27 loss at Seattle as a 1-point underdog. Green Bay (5-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 28-22 upset loss at home to Minnesota as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: This game opened as a pick ‘em before more injury news and a COVID outbreak in San Francisco has moved the Packers to around a touchdown road favorite. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and tight end George Kittle are out indefinitely. Running back Tevin Coleman has been downgraded to out with a knee. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Deebo Samuel are on the COVID list. Nick Mullens will run the offense — and this will be a run-heavy game-plan against the suspect Packers run defense that is allowing their opponents to average 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. San Francisco swept the two meetings between these two teams last year — including in the NFC Championship Game where they won by a 37-20 score. The formula for success was running the football and dominating the physical battle — and head coach Kyle Shanahan will certainly keep this same approach for this rematch. Mullens has been fine under center — he is completing 70.4% of his passes this season with an 8.7 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He completed 18 of 25 passes for 238 yards in relief last week in Seattle. The Niners gained 351 yards in that game — and they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. San Francisco has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to a divisional rival. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. Despite a host of injuries on defense headlined by the losses of Nick Bose, Richard Sherman, and Dee Ford, the Niners are still only allowing 21.6 PPG along with 314.6 total YPG — and those numbers have dropped to 19.7 PPG and 300.7 YPG over their last three games. San Francisco has an outstanding defensive coordinator in Robert Saleh who will have certainly studied closely the Bowles’ game plan from three weeks ago. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Green Bay has covered the point spread in expectations in five of their seven games this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Packers have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Packers’ offense has slowed down significantly since playing Tampa Bay three weeks ago when defensive coordinator Todd Bowles designed a game plan of complicated stunts and disguised schemes that stymied Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay is scoring only 22.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 326.7 total YPG in this copycat league. The Packers will not be at full strength with running backs A.J. Dillon and Jamal Williams on the COVID list. Running back Aaron Jones is also questionable with a calf injury — so he is a game-time decision. If Jones cannot play, the available running backs to the Packers’ offense is Tyler Ervin (who is mostly a pass-catching back) and Dexter Williams who would be activated off the practice squad. Now Green Bay stays on the road for a second-straight week — and they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing at San Francisco after getting swept last year by a combined 74-28 score. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (302) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (274) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (273). THE SITUATION: New York (1-6) looks to rebound from their 22-21 loss at Philadelphia two Thursdays ago as a 5-point underdog. Tampa Bay (5-2) has won two straight as well as five of their last six games after their 45-20 victory in Las Vegas last Sunday against the Raiders as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. The extra time to rest and prepare should help rookie head coach Joe Judge in this spot. As it is, the Giants have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after playing their last game on a Thursday night. Additionally, New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing three of their last four contests. The Giants allowed 442 yards to the Eagles while enduring a -2 net turnover margin. But New York has then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The team had a COVID scare last week but the only player that will miss this game will be offensive lineman Will Hernandez. Tampa Bay is just 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Tom Brady completed 33 of 45 passes for 369 yards to lead the Bucs to victory — but they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a game where they passed for at least 250 yards. Tampa Bay allowed the Raiders to generate 271 passing yards as well — and they are just 19-41-1 ATS in their last 61 games after a game where they allowed at least 250 passing yards. The Bucs are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in November. They stay on the road this week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. New York is getting too many points to pass up. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (274) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (271) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (272). THE SITUATION: Dallas (2-5) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 25-3 upset loss at Washington last week. Philadelphia (2-4-1) looks to build off their 22-21 win over the New York Giants last week as a 5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Hold your nose if you must — but the Eagles are simply laying too many points to a divisional rival who have been humiliated in their last two games. They will be turning to rookie Ben Dinucci under center with Andy Dalton on the shelf after suffering a concussion last week. Frankly, the 7th round pick from James Madison cannot do much worse than Dalton has for this team. He passed for over 3400 yards in his senior season taking the Dukes to the national championship game. He adds desperately needed mobility to the position that Dalton lacks — he rushed for 569 yards with seven touchdowns last season for James Madison. I expect offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to get creative with Dinucci with some designed run plays. I also expect more creativity from Moore in getting the ball in the hands of the uber-talented Dallas wide receiving corps. And I expect more from running back Ezekiel Elliott after the Cowboys managed only 83 rushing yards last week against the Football Team. As it is, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after a double-digit loss on the road. And while they surrendered 208 rushing yards last week to the Football Team, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 road games after allowing at least 175 rushing yards in their last game. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a losing record on the road. Philadelphia is just 1-2 at home this year — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Eagles remain a banged-up football team with three starters injured on their offensive line and several other starters out on both sides of the football including runny back Miles Sanders. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games when favored. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against NFC East foes — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 trips to play the Eagles in Philadelphia. Take all the points. 10* NFL Sunday Daily Discounted Deal with Dallas Cowboys (271) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (269). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-1) looks to rebound from their 37-34 upset loss in overtime at Arizona as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday night. San Francisco (4-3) pulled off their second-straight upset victory last week with their 33-6 victory at New England as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle should respond with a strong effort as they are 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 6 points or less. The Seahawks are also 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 games after a point spread loss. Seattle dominated time of possession having the football for over nine minutes longer than the Cardinals — and they outgained them by +53 net yards. If not for a late personal foul that kept an Arizona drive alive, the Seahawks likely win that game. Seattle went into the locker room at halftime with a 27-17 lead — that was the first game in the Pete Carroll/Russell Wilson era where they lost a game after enjoying a halftime lead of at least four points. Wilson completed 33 of 50 passes for 388 yards while adding another 84 yards on the ground. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. Wilson leads an offense that is tops in the NFL in both scoring 33.8 PPG and in averaging 425.2 total YPG. The Seattle defense is a weakness — and the recently acquired Carlos Dunlap will not be able to play this week given COVID restrictions for newly acquired players. But Carroll expects to get Jamal Adams back on the field after he has been out with a groin injury. The Seahawks surrendered 360 yards last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They are also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Seattle returns home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. And in their last 6 games in November, the Seahawks are 5-0-1 ATS. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after not allowing more than 6 points in their last game. The 49ers are slowly getting a bit healthier — but this remains a shell of the Super Bowl team last season with Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, Dee Ford, and Raheem Mostert all on Injured Reserve as they headline a still very long injured list. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They are also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November. Furthermore, the Niners have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against NFC West foes.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games against the Seahawks — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in Seattle. They did upset the Seahawks on the road in the last meeting between these two teams by a 26-21 score last December 29th — but that will likely be even more motivation for Seattle to get back to their winning ways this week. 25* NFC West Game of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (142) minus the point(s) versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (141). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (0-1) looks to rebound from their 37-34 upset loss at Nevada in overtime last week by a 3-point favorite. Hawai’i (1-0) comes off a 34-19 upset win at Fresno State last Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINT(S): Wyoming started slowly as they fell behind by a 28-6 margin before rallying to force overtime where they eventually failed to steal the victory. But the Cowboys have then bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. Wyoming endured sophomore quarterback Sean Chambers suffer a season-ending broken leg in the third play of this game. Chambers started the first seven games last year before suffering a season-ending knee injury. However, the Cowboys have a capable replacement in redshirt freshman Levi Williams, who led the team to 38 points as the starter last year in their 38-17 victory over Georgia State in the Arizona Bowl. Williams completed 16 of 31 passes for 227 yards while adding another 40 yards on the ground with two touchdowns in almost leading his team to the comeback win. Chambers is a run-first quarterback — Williams is the better passer while still offering running skills. Despite the loss, this is a good Wyoming team that returned over 70% of the two-deep from the team last year that finished 8-5. Many observers have commented on the lack of a home-field advantage when playing in a pandemic without crowded stadiums — but this has been a myopic view of the intangibles that offer teams a home edge. The Cowboys retain a significant home edge playing in Laramie, with it being 7220 feet above sea level. Becoming comfortable playing in a high altitude is not as easy for visiting teams — Wyoming has won 29 of their last 44 games at home on Jonah Field in War Memorial Stadium, including all six home contests last season. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when favored. Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win by at least 10 points as a road underdog. The Rainbow Warriors ran for 323 yards in the first game under first-year head coach Todd Graham who has molded the team’s Run-and-Shoot attack with Air Raid principles and an increased emphasis on running the football. But Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after rushing for at least 200 yards. Graham inherited eleven starters from last year’s team finished 10-5 with their 38-34 win over BYU in the Hawai’i Bowl. That team enjoyed four net victories in games decided by one scoring possession — so that winning record could have been flipped with some bad breaks. They did have a -11 net turnover margin last year — but they enjoyed a fortunate +3 net turnover edge against the Bulldogs last week. Now this team goes on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. Additionally, the Rainbow Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games against teams with a losing record — and they are just 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Graham had scheduled practice time in the Rocky Mountains this week — but seven inches of snow in Denver led to the postponement of those outdoor practices. That is not a good sign for this team from the tropics, who are just 9-24-1 ATS in their last 35 games in October. Wyoming has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games in October — and the temperature is expected to drop below the freezing level tonight. Head coach Craig Bohl will have his team ready to play against this Rainbow Warriors team that upset them last week by a 17-13 score as a 4-point underdog. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Wyoming Cowboys (142) minus the point(s) versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (101) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (102). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (1-6) looks to bounce back from their 23-22 upset loss at home to Detroit as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Carolina (3-4) has lost their last two games after their 27-24 loss at New Orleans as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta blew their third game where they had a late lead when running back Todd Gurley could not stop himself from stumbling into the end zone after getting first down inside the Lions’ 10-yard line late in that game. The touchdown gave Matthew Stafford one last opportunity to score a touchdown — which he did on the last play of the game — to steal the victory. The Falcons have suffered four upset losses this season — and they have four net close losses in games decide by one scoring possession. Yet Atlanta still has the better roster than the Panthers. And their defense has played better as of late as they have held each of their last three opponents to just 23 points. The Falcons allowed Detroit to gain 386 yards — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Atlanta goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. And in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record, the Falcons have covered the point spread 5 times. Carolina was outgained by the Saints last week by -132 net yards. The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by 6 points or less. All three of Carolina’s victories have been as an underdog. They return home where they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 11 games as a favorite, Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these contests. There had been speculation that the Panthers would activate Christian McCaffrey for this game — but he remained on the Injured Reserve list this afternoon with his ankle sprain. Carolina is missing some players on their offensive line with tackle Russell Okung downgraded to doubtful with his calf injury and Michael Schofield III on the COVID list. The Panthers are also missing defensive tackle Kawan Short, defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos, and strong safety Juston Burris who are all on IR.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta will be looking to avenge a 23-16 upset loss at home to Carolina on October 11th which was the final game for both head coach Dan Quinn and general manager Thomas Dimitroff before both were fired the next day. Wide receiver Julio Jones did not play in that game either with his hamstring injury — but he is in better health now after hauling in eight catches for 97 yards last week against the Lions. The Falcons are wavering 28.4 PPG when Jones is in the lineup. 25* NFC South Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (101) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (476) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (475). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-2) looks to bounce back from their 24-16 upset loss at San Francisco last Sunday night as a 2.5-point favorite. Chicago (5-1) has won two games in a row after their 23-16 upset win at Carolina as a 2-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles should respond with a strong effort as they have coved the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss. They are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Now the Rams return home to SoFi Stadium where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when laying up to 7 points. Los Angeles is also 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 games when favored. The Rams have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. The Bears are averaging only 21.3 PPG this season — and tapping Nick Foles as their savior for a post-Mitchell Trubisky era has not solved the problem. Chicago has scored only 43 combined points in their last two games while settling for five field goals after stalled drives along the way. Foles is averaging only 5.9 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt over his last two starts. He is not getting much help from the Bears’ rushing attack that is without running back Tarik Cohen is out the season with a torn ACL. In their two last two victories, Chicago has accumulated only 98 total rushing yards while averaging just 2.5 Yards-Per-Carry. They managed only 63 rushing yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread 7 of their last 10 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams usually play above expectations when facing a familiar team under head coach Sean McVay as they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games against NFC foes. These two teams will be playing for the third straight season after Los Angeles won in Chicago last November 17th by a 17-7 score. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Rams (476) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (467) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (468). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-0) returns to the field after their bye week after last defeating Minnesota by a 27-26 two weeks ago as a 6.5-point favorite. Arizona (4-2) comes off a 38-10 upset win at Dallas on Monday as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle started slowly against the Vikings by going into halftime with a 13-0 deficit — but they rallied to outscore Minnesota in the final 30 minutes by a 27-13 score. The Seahawks are 39-19-4 ATS in their last 62 games are a point spread loss — and this includes them covering the point spread in ten of these last twelve situations. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. The Seahawks should benefit from the self-scout during their bye week — they have won their last four games under head coach Pete Carroll after this experience. The Seattle offense is clicking behind QB Russell Wilson — they have scored at least 27 points in all five of their games. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 8 straight road games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. Arizona may be due for an emotional letdown after their big win on national television. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win by at least 28 points. Additionally, while the Cardinals have held their last two opponents to just 10 points each, they are just 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight games. They return home after playing their last two games on the road but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after winning their last two games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle usually wins expected close games — they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. That is the Russell Wilson effect. The Seahawks are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Arizona against the Cardinals. 10* NFL Seattle-Arizona NBC-TV Special with the Seattle Seahawks (467) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (468). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (470) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (469). THE SITUATION: New England (2-3) has lost two games in a row after their 18-12 upset loss to Denver last Sunday as a 7-point favorite. San Francisco (3-3) enters this game triumphant after their 24-16 upset win over the Los Angeles Rams last Sunday as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: This is the first time that Bill Belichick’s team has been below .500 in October in 225 games. Their 26-10 loss at Kansas City two weeks ago was not a surprise since they were without Cam Newton in that game. Do not underestimate the negative impact the lack of practices has had on this team over the last two weeks. I believe Belichick and his coaching staff were able to address a host of issues this week in what was their first uninterrupted normal week of preparation since their 36-20 victory over the Raiders three weeks ago. Belichick’s teams in New England are a decisive 49-24-1 ATS in their last 74 games after a straight-up loss. I expect this Patriots’ offense to improve significantly this week after struggling against the Broncos. New England has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after not scoring more than 14 points in two straight contests. The Patriots defense is playing quite well — they held the Chiefs to just 19 points from their offense while limiting them to only 323 yards two weeks ago before holding the Broncos to 299 yards last week. Belichick teams usually are reliable in October as they are 42-17-2 ATS in their last 61 games in this month — and the Patriots have covered the point spread in seven of their last ten games in October. New England has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games as a home favorite of 7 points or less. San Francisco may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset win at home against an NFC West rival. The 49ers are starting to get healthy again — but they are still a shell of the team that made it to the Super Bowl. The defense remains a M*A*S*H unit with Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, and Richard Sherman out indefinitely. The Niners will also be without the glue of their defense for the second straight week in linebacker Kwon Alexander who is dealing with a high ankle sprain. On offense, the team put running back Raheem Mostert on IR this week to join Tevin Coleman on that list. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games in October. They are also just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Belichick should have a special game plan for 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo who he drafted and groomed in New England for years before trading him to San Francisco. 25* NFL CBS-TV Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (470) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (469). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (477) plus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (478). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (5-0) looks to build off their 38-7 win over Cleveland last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Tennessee (5-0) also remained undefeated last week with their 42-36 win in overtime against Houston as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh should build off their momentum as they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Furthermore, the Steelers are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games after both a straight-up win and after a point spread victory. Pittsburgh is also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Now the Steelers go back on the road where they are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 home games after a game where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Titans rolled up 607 yards of offense against the hapless Texans defense last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 500 yards in their last game. QB Ryan Tannehill completed 30 of 41 passes for 366 yards in that game — but Tennessee is 18-44-2 ATS in their last 64 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Titans are rolling — but they suffered a massive blow when their left tackle, Taylor Lewan, suffered a season-ending knee injury. Moving forward, Tennessee’s lack of a pass rush may hold them back when facing elite teams. This helps explain why they are last in the league in third-down defense. And in their last 15 games in expected high-scoring games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher, the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Big Ben Roethlisberger and this Pittsburgh team are very tough when playing the role of the underdog. The Steelers are 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 games when getting the points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road as a dog. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers (477) plus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (322) minus the points versus North Carolina State (321). THE SITUATION: North Carolina (3-1) suffered their first loss of the season last Saturday with their 31-28 upset loss at Florida State as a 13.5-point favorite. North Carolina State (4-1) has won three games in a row with their 31-20 win over Duke last Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS MINUS THE POINTS: North Carolina was caught flat in the first half last week as they allowed a 25-yard interception that was returned for a touchdown en route to going into halftime with a 31-7 deficit. Head coach Mack Brown’s team almost came back but their rally fell just short despite outgaining the Seminoles by +26 net yards. The Tar Heels have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 31 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. North Carolina has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored. NC State benefited from an 8-yard blocked punt that they returned for a touchdown to defeat the Blue Devils last week. But the Wolfpack has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win. NC State has also failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games after winning at least three games in a row. The Wolfpack has not been overwhelming with their four victories. They only defeated Wake Forest by a field goal. They allowed 500 yards to Pittsburgh yet defeated the Panthers despite being outgained by 100 yards. And in their wins over Duke and Virginia, they benefited from forcing seven turnovers. They will be without starting quarterback Devin Leary who is out indefinitely with a fibula injury so it will be junior Bailey Hockman under center. NC State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: NC State enters this game ranked 23rd in the nation with North Carolina ranked 14th. In the last ten seasons, this is just the sixth time that a game between two ranked teams outside the top-ten had the favorite laying more than 14 points. Those favorites are 4-1 ATS going into this afternoon clash. Trust the oddsmakers on this one. 20* CFB NC State-North Carolina ESPN Special with the North Carolina Tar Heels (322) minus the points versus North Carolina State (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (309) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (310). THE SITUATION: UL-Lafayette (3-1) looks to rebound from their 30-27 upset loss at home to Coastal Carolina as a 9-point favorite back on October 14th. UAB (4-1) has won three straight games after their 37-14 victory over Western Kentucky last Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS MINUS THE POINTS: UL-Lafayette should respond with a big effort tonight. The Ragin’ Cajuns have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games on the road after an upset loss to a conference rival. UL-Lafayette returned fourteen starters from the group that finished 11-3 with a 27-17 victory over Miami (OH) in the Lending Tree Bowl. Led by senior quarterback Levi Lewis, the Ragin’ Cajuns are averaging 456.7 total YPG over their last three contests. They also have averaged 7.55 and 7.57 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games — and they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last two games. Now UL-Lafayette goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 52 range. UAB may be due for a letdown after they crushed the Hilltoppers last week. The Blazers gave failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. UAB has also failed to cover the point in 6 straight games after a win by at least 20 points. And in their last 17 games after winning at least three games in a row, the Blazers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of these games. UAB rushed for 358 yards to help lead them to victory — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 37 points in their last game. They are playing without their starting quarterback Tyler Johnston III who is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. Redshirt freshman Bryson Lucero was shaky under center for the Blazers as he completed only 15 of 31 passes for 141 yards with a touchdown and an interception while not contributing to the running game. UAB is at a significant disadvantage in this game at the quarterback position. This team returned eighteen starters from head coach Bill Clark’s team that finished 9-5 last season. They only had one victory over an FBS team with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. UAB has beaten three FBS teams this season in South Alabama, UTSA, and Western Kentucky last week — none of these teams have a record above .500. The Blazers' one loss was by 17 points at Miami (FL).

FINAL TAKE: UL-Lafayette has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in October. Look for them to pull away to win this game comfortably. 25* CFB Friday CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (309) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Giants (303) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (304). THE SITUATION: New York (1-5) snapped their five-game losing streak on Sunday with their 20-19 win over Washington as a 2-point favorite. Philadelphia (1-4-1) has lost two games in a row with their 30-28 loss at home to Baltimore as a 10.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York should build off the momentum of winning their first game of the season under rookie head coach Joe Judge. Remember, Judge did not have a typical offseason to implement his program — so the first month of the season had to be a continuation of that work. I expect continued improvement from this team under Judge. As it is, the Giants have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games after a narrow win by 6 points or less. New York has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. the Giants’ defense has been playing pretty good — they are holding their home hosts to just 315.3 total YPG this season. This has helped New York cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Giants have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. And they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against fellow teams from the NFC. Additionally, New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Eagles generated 364 yards against the Ravens defense last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Philly offense is riddled with injuries. They will be without running back Miles Sanders for a few weeks with his knee injury which means their lead back tonight will be the 5’7 Boston Scott who has rushed for only 67 yards on 21 carries. QB Carson Wentz is without a number of his best targets in the passing game. Wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey and tight end Dallas Goedert are out for tonight. Star tight end Zach Ertz has yet to be ruled out but he suffered ankle injuries that the doctors think will keep him on the shelf for weeks. Wide receiver DeSean Jackson plans to take the field tonight after missing the last three games but it remains to be seen how effective the 33-year old can be coming off a hamstring injury that may impact his speed. The Eagles offensive line is even in worse shape. Starters Brandon Brooks, Andre Dillard, and Isaac Seumaol are all out. The team brought back Jason Peters after Dillard suffered his season-ending biceps injury — and he is also on the Injured Reserve. Tackle Lane Johnson will take the field despite his ankle injury but rookie backup Jack Driscoll is out tonight with an ankle. Wentz has been sacked 25 times this season — and being hurried has contributed to his nine interceptions. The Giants have a good pass rush that ranks 10th in the legacy with 15 sacks. Philadelphia stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have won the last six meetings between these two teams after sweeping both games last season. But Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when laying the points. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (303) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Appalachian State Mountaineers (312) minus the points versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (311). THE SITUATION: Appalachian State (2-1) has won two straight games after their 52-21 win over Campbell as a 33.5-point favorite back on September 26th. Arkansas State (3-2) has won three of their last four games after their 59-52 win over Georgia State last Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Appalachian State lost their opening game in a very tough game at Marshall by a 17-7 score in a rescheduled game after COVID that might have featured the best two non-Power Five football teams this season. The Mountaineers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two of their last three games. The break due to some cancellations and planned bye weeks should help this team under first-year head coach Shawn Clark since it helps make up for the limited fall prep. That said, Appalachian State did get in all thirteen of their spring practices. They also have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when playing with at least two weeks of rest and preparation. Their win over Campbell flew over the 54 point total — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a game that finished Over the Total. This is a team that returned thirteen starters from the team that finished 13-1 last year. They rushed for a whopping 404 yards against Campbell while outgaining them on the ground by 187 net yards. Appalachian State has then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least 200 yards. They are 5th in the nation by averaging 269.3 rushing YPG. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 6 expected high scoring games with the total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range, the Mountaineers have covered the point spread in 5 times. Arkansas State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where both teams scored at least 30 points. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where they allowed at least 40 points. The Red Wolves defense looked very vulnerable against the Panthers as they surrendered 583 total yards in that game. Georgia State quarterback Cornelius Brown IV passed for 314 yards with three touchdowns while adding another 83 rushing yards with two more touchdowns on the ground. Arkansas State faces another explosive dual-threat quarterback tonight in Zac Thomas completed 62.7% of his passes last year for 2718 passing yards with 28 touchdown passes and just six interceptions. And while Red Wolves offense rotating between quarterbacks Logan Bonner and Layne Hatcher helped generate 609 total yards last Thursday, they now face a stout Appalachian State defense that is holding their opponents to just 19.3 PPG along with only 323.3 total YPG. As it is, Arkansas State has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after gaining at least 575 yards in their last game. Now the Red Wolves go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on October 9th in 2018 where Appalachian State won by 35-9 score. Arkansas State has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CFB Arkansas State-Appalachian State ESPN Special with the Appalachian State Mountaineers (312) minus the points versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (276) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (275). THE SITUATION: Dallas (2-3) enters this game coming off a 37-34 win at home over the New York Giants last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Arizona (3-2) looks to build off their 30-10 win at New York against the Jets as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: The big news for Dallas is the season-ending injury to Dak Prescott. I think the offense will continue to be productive with Andy Dalton under center. The Red Rider is a veteran with playoff experience who needed to get out of Cincinnati. He has tons of offensive weapons with the Cowboys with Ezekiel Elliott at running back along with one of the most talented and deepest wide receiving corps in the league. I also think the strength of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is his initial scheming (not so much with his ability to adapt) — so I think Dallas will have a short-term advantage with Moore’s wrinkles with the offense as he shapes it to Dalton’s strength. Look for the Cowboys to come out with plenty of energy as they look to salvage their season — and they are still in first place in the hapless NFC East. Dallas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home where they scored at least 31 points. And while the Cowboys have not covered the point spread in any of their games this season, Dallas has then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least four straight games. The Cowboys lead the NFL by averaging 488.0 total YPG — and that usually is a good sign for them moving forward. After scoring 75 combined points in their last two games, Dallas has scored at least 31 points in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 35 points in their last two contests. The Cowboys have gained at least 408 yards in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after gaining at last 400 yards in three straight games. And while Dallas has averaged at least 6.48 Yards-Per-Play in their last four contests, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in four straight contests. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Cardinals dominated the woeful Jets by outgaining them by +211 net yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +200 net yards. Quarterback Kyler Murray completed 27 of 37 passes for 380 yards in the victory — but Arizona is just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games after passing for at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Cardinals are just 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. This Arizona team is also without their All-Pro linebacker Chandler Jones who suffered a season-ending biceps injury. Not only will the Cardinals miss his 19 sacks from last season but they are also without linebacker Devon Kennard.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing on Monday Night Football while Dallas has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on MNF. Look for the Cowboys to pull out the victory behind Dalton. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (276) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (274) minus the points versus Los Angeles Rams (273). THE SITUATION:  San Francisco (2-3) was upset for the second straight week last Sunday with their 43-17 shellacking at the hands of Miami as an 8.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (4-1) has won two straight games with their 30-10 win at Washington as a 7-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a critical game for San Francisco after they have been upset in two straight games as a favorite laying more than a touchdown in two straight weeks in what was supposed to be a fruitful three-game homestand. The Niners were upset at home two weeks ago on Sunday Night Football against the Eagles (when we successfully had Philly) before their upset loss at home to the Dolphins last week. San Francisco goes on the road next week for a brutal two-game swing at New England and then Seattle. With the NFC West also including an up-and-coming Arizona team, head coach Kyle Shanahan simply needs to get a victory from his team tonight. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss by at least 21 points. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. QB Jimmy Garoppolo was probably rushed back to action last week with his bum ankle as he could not plant his leg which led to him completing only 7 of 17 passes while throwing two interceptions last week before Shanahan got him out of there at halftime. Garoppolo should be better this week — and the pressure will be on for him to perform. The 49ers are also simply ravaged with injuries especially on defense where Richard Sherman, Joey Bosa, and Dee Ford are on IR while linebacker Kwon Alexander is out with an ankle. Yet despite all this attrition, San Francisco is fifth in the NFL by allowing only 323.0 YPG — and they are third in the league by allowing only 215.6 passing YPG and only six touchdown passes. The 49ers should step up in this game as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Los Angeles may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning two games in a row. And while they have not allowed more than 10 points in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. The Rams held the Football Team to just 108 yards of offense last week while limiting them to only a 2.45 Yards-Per-Play average. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after not allowing more than 200 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after holding their last opponent to no more than 3.5 YPP. And while the combination of Alex Smith and Kyle Allen only managed 70 total passing yards last week, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 100 passing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: All four of Los Angeles’ victories have been against the weak NFC East teams — so their great stats may be propped up by a favorable early schedule. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (274) minus the points versus Los Angeles Rams (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (166) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (165). THE SITUATION: Alabama (3-0) enter this game coming off their 63-48 victory over Ole Miss last Saturday as a 24-point favorite. Georgia (3-0) comes off a 44-21 win at home against Tennessee last Saturday as a 13-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS: What’s up with the Alabama defense that surrendered a whopping 647 yards last week to the Rebels. The Tide returned five starters on a defense that had many freshmen forced into duty last season because of injuries. The front seven should be outstanding with the secondary work in progress with only one returning starter in junior cornerback Patrick Surtain. This inexperienced secondary got exposed by a Mississippi offense coached by a former offensive coordinator in Lane Kiffin who was able to (a) use a quick tempo to his advantage; (b) deploy a spread passing attack following the principles of Art Briles to expose this secondary with (c) a former blue-chip quarterback in Matt Corral who was also able to burn the Bama defense at times with his legs. I will mention this again below — but these are all tendencies that Georgia will not be able to replicate. That might have been the worst defensive performance for an Alabama team in the Nick Saban 14-year era. This unit will play better this week — and his teams have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Crimson Tide has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. But the encouraging developments for the Alabama faithful is the development of their offense under QB Mac Jones. The junior completed 28 of 32 passes against Ole Miss for 417 yards with two touchdowns. He is completing 79.5% of his passes while posting the second-best QBR in the nation. Jones was quite good playing for Tua Tagovailoa last season. He had two bad pick-sixes on the road at Auburn in a game that the Crimson Tide lost despite outgaining them by a 515-354 yardage margin. Alabama then sleepwalked in the first half in the Citrus Bowl against Michigan before rallying to crush the Wolverines by a 35-16 score. This will be the Crimson Tide’s biggest game since bitterly losing the Iron Bowl despite dominating that game. Expect this Alabama team to be very chippy. The Tide are very tough to beat when they have a powerful offense. Alabama averaged 9.89 Yards-Per-Play two weeks ago against Texas A&M for 544 yards before ripping off 10.2 YPP last week against Ole Miss for an incredible 723 yards. The Tide have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 525 yards in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 home games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP in two straight contests. Additionally, Alabama rushed for 306 yards last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 home games after rushing for at least 300 yards in their last game. Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread cover — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. The Bulldogs may have the best defense in the nation — but their eight starters that returned this season were torched for 37 points and 6.5 YPP when playing against LSU in the SEC Championship Game last season. The Crimson Tide have four returning starters on their offensive line with three seniors that will challenge the Bulldogs’ defensive line. They have a threatening passing attack that will stretch Georgia vertically and horizontally — and that should create huge rushing lanes for running back Najee Harris and Brian Robinson Jr.  That will likely be the difference for Alabama: Harris rushed for 206 yards with five touchdowns last week. He is averaging 3.1 yards-per-carry BEFORE contact (8th in the nation) and another 3.6 YPC AFTER contact (3rd in the nation). Led by Harris, the Tide offense leads the nation in both Success Rate and with their 6.5 rushing YPC average. The offensive firepower of Alabama simply cannot be matched by the Bulldogs offense which is the weak link in this game. Georgia only returned three starters from what was a pedestrian offense that was just 50th in scoring and 61st in total yardage. The young offensive line which remains a work-in-progress. The running backs and wide receivers are mostly a new group. And then there is the quarterback situation with walk-on Stetson Bennett the (current) starter. Bennett is playing because their two prized freshman recruits are not ready and former USC blue-chipper J.T. Daniels was only cleared to play two weeks ago. Head coach Kirby Smart likes Bennett because he is safe with the football while being capable with the passing attack — a junior level version of Jake Fromm. Well, that ain’t gonna get it done against Alabama. Bennett is small — just 5’11 and 190-lbs. He is a statue in the pocket. This is the profile of the quarterbacks that Saban defenses swallow and devour. The Bulldogs do not play with tempo and deploy a conventional pro-style offense that is designed to overwhelm lesser opponents. They are just 7th in the SEC on third-down conversion rate. I think first-year offensive coordinator Jeff Monken is fine — I think his impact on this game would have been stronger if it was being played in December rather than in their fourth game with this inexperienced offense. I suspect that Georgia will look to Daniels or another one of their quarterbacks before this game is over. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games as an underdog — and Alabama has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Saban has tested negative for COVID three straight times — so he has been cleared to be on the sidelines. Bottom-line: the Tide have won the last five meetings against Bulldogs teams with better offenses and certainly more threatening quarterbacks  — and this offense is catching the Bama defense on the wrong week after last week’s embarrassment. 25* CFB CBS-TV Game of the Month with the Alabama Crimson Tide (166) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (165). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (162) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (161). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (3-1) enters this game coming off a narrow 21-17  win over UTEP last Saturday as a 14.5-point favorite. Marshall (3-0) is unbeaten after their 38-14 win at Western Kentucky last week as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win as a favorite where they did not cover the point spread. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Bulldogs managed only 210 yards of offense in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last contest. Head coach Skip Holtz can lean on his defense that limited the Miners to just 266 total yards. UTEP scored one of their touchdowns via a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. Louisiana Tech returns home where they have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 62 games when playing with six days or less of rest. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog. Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win over a conference rival. The Thundering Herd has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread victory. Marshall forced three Hilltoppers’ turnovers last week for a +3 net turnover margin that made a big difference in that game. But the Thundering Herd have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after forcing at least three turnovers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after enjoying a +3 or better turnover margin in their last game. Marshall has won the turnover battle in all three of their games this season — but the Regression Gods are fickle and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after having a +1 or better turnover margin in at least two straight games. And while the Thundering Herd has only allowed 21 points this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight games. Additionally, Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Thundering Herd has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 road games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. 10* CFB Marshall-Louisiana Tech CBS-Sports Network Special with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (162) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (161). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (123) minus the points versus South Carolina Gamecocks (124). THE SITUATION: Auburn (2-1) enters this game coming off a narrow 30-28 win at home against Arkansas as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday. South Carolina (1-2) won their first game of the season with their 41-7 blowout victory at Vanderbilt as a 14.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Auburn was flat last week after the hangover of losing their showdown with Georgia that likely ended their National Championship aspirations. But the Tigers should get back to business in this game against a Gamecocks team that will be overmatched in talent. Auburn has bounce-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Tigers are due to get some turnover luck as they have not earned a takeaway in two straight games despite having a strong defense. Auburn has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not forcing a turnover in their previous game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not forcing a turnover in two straight contests. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games against teams with a losing record. Additionally, Auburn has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when laying the points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road when favored. South Carolina opened their season with losses to Florida and Tennessee before getting the opportunity to crush a bad Commodores team this season. The Gamecocks return home where they are just 1-3-1 ATS — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. South Carolina has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games as a dog getting no more than 3 points.

FINAL TAKE: This is the first meeting between these two teams since 2014 — but the Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. South Carolina has lost sixteen of their eighteen games against teams who are ranked in the Will Muschamp era — they have lost eight of their last nine games at home when hosting a ranked team under his leadership. 10* CFB Auburn-South Carolina ESPN Special with the Auburn Tigers (123) minus the points versus South Carolina Gamecocks (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (110) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (109). THE SITUATION: Houston (1-0) won their opening game of the season last Thursday with their 49-31 win over Tulane as a 6.5-point favorite. BYU (4-0) remained undefeated last Saturday with their 27-20 win over UTSA as a 34-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE HOUSTON PLUS THE POINTS: Houston started slowly in finally getting their season started last week as they surrendered two defensive touchdowns to the Green Wave to find themselves down 24-7 early in the 2nd quarter. The Cougars then demolished Tulane the rest of the way by outscoring them by a 42-7 margin while outgaining them by 476 to 211 yards. Houston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 24 points in their last game. BYU is getting the hype with their perfect record and +32.8 net PPG average — but I think it is the other Cougars in this game that are undervalued. Second-year head coach Dana Holgorsen returned nineteen starters while adding a whopping 33 transfer players from FBS, FCS, and junior college programs from last year’s group that finished 4-8. Holgorsen brought tanking and the de-facto “process” to college football last season with eleven players choosing to redshirt before losing eligibility by playing in their fifth game. This is a team loaded with talent coming off their worst won/loss record in 15 years. Holgorsen seems to have his QB to operate his version of the Air Raid in junior Clayton Tune who completed 20 of 33 passes for 319 yards with two touchdowns last week. Quarterbacks tend to see a big jump in their second-season under Holgorsen and his system. Houston has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Cougars’ defense returns 93% of its productivity from last season while getting a bunch of new talent from transfers. Houston is a dangerous home dog as they are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games when getting the points. These Cougars have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in October — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played on a Friday night. BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread after a point spread loss. This team struggled against the Roadrunners as they struggled to finish drives in the Red Zone. This is troubling as they were 120th in the Red Zone last season. They also allowed UTSA to pass for 287 yards which were the most they allowed in the air all season. That is not a good sign when facing a Holgorsen Air Raid attack — and BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. QB Zach Wilson did complete 21 of 30 passes for 292 yards in the win — but these Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Frankly, I have considered this Cougars team to be a paper tiger: they opened their season by crushing a Navy team that was not physically prepared to play given their limited workouts due to COVID before returning home for three straight games at home against Troy and Louisiana Tech before the UTSA “showdown” last week. BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning at least two in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning three games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing their last two games at home. BYU is not a good frontrunner either — they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road when laying the points.

FINAL TAKE: BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Houston has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. 25* CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Houston Cougars (110) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (108) plus the points versus the SMU Tigers (107). THE SITUATION: Tulane (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 49-31 loss at Houston last Thursday as a 6.5-point underdog. SMU (4-0) returns to action after defeating Memphis back on October 3rd by a 30-27 score as a 1.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE PLUS THE POINTS: Tulane should respond with a strong effort under head coach Willie Fritz as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. They faced a Houston team that had weeks to prepare against their version of their run-oriented spread offense with it being the Cougars first game of the season given several COVID cancellations. The Green Wave managed to rush for only 70 yards on 45 carries in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not rushing for at least 100 yards in their last game. Tulane only gained 211 yards in that game overall — yet they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last contest. The Green Wave have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home as an underdog. SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after a win at home by 3 points or less. Now this team goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games away from home with the Total set at 63 or higher. The Mustangs have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when favored. Defense could be an issue with this SMU team after they surrendered 585 total yards to the Tigers. The Mustangs surrendered 380 of those yards in the air — and they then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: SMU suffered two crushing season-ending injuries in that win over Memphis with both star wide receiver Reggie Roberson and starting running back T.J. McDaniel out the season. These Friday night games have not been great for the Mustangs either as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a Friday. 10* CFB SMU-Tulane ESPN Special with the Tulane Green Wave (108) plus the points versus the SMU Tigers (107). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arkansas State Red Wolves (106) minus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (105). THE SITUATION: Arkansas State (2-2) enters this game coming off a 50-27 win over Central Arkansas last Saturday as a 14.5-point favorite. Georgia State (1-1) returns to action after last playing on October 3rd when they upset East Carolina by a 49-29 score as a 2-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED WOLVES MINUS THE POINTS: Arkansas State will have something to prove in this game after being upset in their last game against an FBS opponent on October 3rd in their 52-23 loss at Coastal Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite. That was a difficult situation for the Red Wolves as they were playing their third straight game away from home. The Chanticleers are an underrated football team as well — as UL-Lafayette found out on Thursday night when they were upset at home against them. Arkansas State returned fifteen starters from last year’s team that finished 8-5 in a season culminating with a 34-26 win in the Camellia Bowl against FIU. The Red Wolves proved their mettle last month with a 35-31 upset win at Kansas State as a 15-point underdog (and perhaps they were due for a letdown when facing Coastal Carolina in their next game three weeks later). Despite their 2-2 record, they are outgaining their opponents by +56.8 net YPG. They stay at home in Jonesboro for just their second game this season where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Arkansas State has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 70 or higher. The Red Wolves have been playing high-scoring games with each of their four games totaling at least 61 combined points. These are the games that Arkansas State tends to thrive in under head coach Blake Anderson as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing four straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored. Anderson has yet to settle on a full-time quarterback with junior Logan Bonner the starter last season for the first four games before suffering a season-ending hand injury which presented the opportunity to former Alabama transfer Layne Hatcher to step in with the redshirt sophomore finish 8th in the FBS by averaging 294.6 passing YPG. Anderson is rotating both quarterbacks with them both combining to complete 61.2% of their passes for an offense that is averaging 342 passing YPG along with an 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt average. Georgia State scored a defensive touchdown and a special teams touchdown against the Pirates to help them win their last game. They are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. They also gained 485 yards in that game but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game. The Panthers are using redshirt freshman Cornelius Brown as their quarterback who will be making his first start on the road with this being Georgia State’s first game away from their home in Atlanta at Georgia State Stadium which was previously Turner Field for the Atlanta Braves. Georgia State is just 2-10-2 ATS in their last 14 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road. The Panthers have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a game where at least 70 combined points were scored.

FINAL TAKE: Arkansas State will also be motivated to avenge a 52-38 upset loss at Georgia State last season where they were 6.5-point favorites. The Red Wolves have only had ten defensive players who have been available for all four of their games given injuries and COVID — but this unit will likely be at their healthiest for this game. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Year with the Arkansas State Red Wolves (106) minus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET Wednesday, we will be playing the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (170) minus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (169). THE SITUATION: UL-Lafayette (3-0) takes the field again for the first time since September 26th with their 20-18 win over Georgia Southern as an 11.5-point favorite. Coastal Carolina (3-0) looks to build off their 52-23 upset win over Arkansas State on October 3rd as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS MINUS THE POINTS: UL-Lafayette averaged 7.55 Yards-Per-play against the Eagles in their last game after averaging 6.82 YPP in their victory over Georgia State in the previous week — and they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. The Ragin’ Cajuns returned seven starters on offense including quarterback Levi Lewis from last year’s team that finished 11-3 with a 27-17 win over Miami (OH) in the Lending Tree Bowl. This team opened the season with a big upset victory over Iowa State (the team that later upset Texas and lost to Oklahoma by one point) by a 31-14 score. The Ragin’ Cajuns committed only one turnover in their last game — and they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after not turning the ball over more than once in their last game. UL-Louisiana only scored 7 points in the first half against Georgia Southern after scoring only 7 points the previous week at Georgia State — but they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after not scoring more than a touchdown in the first half in two straight games. This team under head coach Billy Napier has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in October. Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after a win over a Sun Belt rival. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 37 points in their last game. The Chanticleers have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. Coastal Carolina did pass for 322 yards against the Red Wolves defense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing at least 280 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Chanticleers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. Look for UL-Lafayette to win comfortably. 10* CFB Coastal Carolina-Louisiana ESPN Special with the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (170) minus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (169). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (462) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (461). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-0) finally takes the field again after last playing on September 27th where they defeated the Vikings in Minnesota by a 31-30 score as a 3-point favorite. Buffalo (4-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 30-23 win at Las Vegas as a 3-point favorite on October 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Endorsing Tennessee for this game first required an up-to-date assessment regarding who will be playing tonight. The news early this afternoon is that both left tackle Taylor Lewan and wide receiver A.J. Brown are expected to play after being listed as questionable on the last official injured list submitted to the league on Saturday. I thought this would be the case with the extra days to rest and rehabilitate — but confirmation was essential for me to push the proverbial button on this play. The Titans have a long lost of players out due to COVID with wide receivers Adam Humphries and Corey Davis being two of those players. I do have sources at the private high school in Nashville where Tennessee conducted informal workouts last week violating NFL guidelines. These workouts were on multiple days (good!) that involved quarterback Ryan Tannehill (good!) working with coaches (good!) in passing drills which are presumably the players that will be taking Humphries and Davis spots tonight (good!). I am not thrilled that the Titans will have had only two practices back at their open facilities since Saturday — but that is similar to the regimen for teams playing on a Thursday after a short week. At least Tennessee has stayed at home this entire time. And getting seventeen days of rest does not hurt. I think this will be a big night for running back Derrick Henry (who was not at the informal workouts — he was resting, which is good!) who may be poised to have his best game of the season running behind Lewan. I also like the extended time that head coach Mike Vrabel and his staff have had to devise a scheme-specific against the Bills’ QB Josh Allen. The only other significant loss for the Titans from COVID is defensive end, Jeffery Simmons. Tennessee has not covered the point spread yet this season — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after both a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread in and after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games. Tannehill led an offense that generated 444 yards against the Vikings in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 400 yards. And in their last 12 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, Tennessee has covered the point spread 8 times. Buffalo has won and covered the point spread in all four of their games this season — but I don’t like it when teams that are red hot get out of their routine. As it is, the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after winning at least four games in a row. Additionally, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 38 of their last 60 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Bills have won all three of their games decided by one possession including two wins by just a field goal. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in their win over the Raiders — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after generating a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against fellow AFC opponents while Buffalo is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against AFC foes. While skepticism over the Titans after their long break is deserved, the market has over-adjusted (fueled by the Allen-hype) in making them road favorites of at least a field goal where they would typically be small road dogs according to most power rankings. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Tennessee Titans (462) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (477) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (478). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (1-3) has lost three straight games after their 38-31 loss at Tampa Bay as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. New Orleans (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 35-29 victory in Detroit against the Lions as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. New Orleans is a banged-up football team. On defense, cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins and Marston Lattimore along with defensive end Marcus Davenport are all questionable with injuries. On offense, the offensive line is dealing with injuries to Andrus Peat and Ryan Ramczyk that leave them questionable for tonight. And while wide receiver Michael Thomas was questionable with the ankle that kept him out the previous two games, he was suspended for tonight’s game by the field after a physical altercation with a teammate. All these issues will make it harder for a team to cover a point spread of about a touchdown — the Saints just want the victory. They are scoring 30.8 PPG — but they are also allowing 30.8 PPG so far this season. They return home to the Big Easy where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games when laying the points. Los Angeles has lost all three of their games by 7 points or less. The Chargers had a 24-7 lead in the second quarter against the Buccaneers before blowing that lead to Tom Brady and company. They also blew a lead against Kansas City before losing that game in overtime — and a fumbled lateral in the waning moments of their game with Carolina probably cost them that victory. This is a quality roster with a good head coach in Anthony Lynn. I am worried about their injuries — particularly on the offensive line. But the Chargers put up 31 points against a very good Tampa Bay defense despite the injuries to Trai Turner and Bryan Bulaga who are starters on their offensive line. They seem to have made the right decision in drafting Justin Herbert at quarterback. The rookie has completed 72% of his passes for 831 yards and an 8.7 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt average. Running back Austin Ekeler is out but they have a solid stable of running backs with rookie Joshua Kelley out of UCLA and former Northwestern Wildcat Josh Jackson. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 31 road games after losing at least three games in a row. The Chargers are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 road games with the total set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles is 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog — and they are 33-15-4 ATS in their last 52 road games when getting the points. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on Monday Night Football — and remember that they will not have a packed and rowdy home crowd for this game given COVID restrictions. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (477) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (475) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (476). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-3) won their first game of the season last Sunday with their 31-23 upset win at Houston as a 3.5-point underdog. Seattle (4-0) remains unbeaten this season after they defeated Miami on the road last week by a 31-23 score as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Earning their first win of the season was a good start — but Minnesota remains in an urgent situation with Green Bay and Chicago only having one loss between the both of them in the NFC North. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after losing two of their last three games. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has received his usual level of criticism during the losing streak — but he has led an offense that has scored 61 combined points over the last two games and that has reached the 30-point threshold in three of their four games this season. Justin Jefferson has emerged as a solid replacement for Stefon Diggs and a good complement to Adam Thielen — he has 11 receptions for 278 yards. Minnesota generated 410 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. Delvin Cook has been outstanding this season with two straight 100-yard rushing efforts. He ran the ball 27 times for 130 yards and two touchdowns last week. Cook’s success running the football allowed the Vikings to control the time of possession for 36:31 minutes — and this will be the formula for success tonight to keep Russell Wilson off the field. Minnesota rushed for 162 yards overall against the Texans — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Vikings are also 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games in October. Seattle looks to become 5-0 on the season for the first time in franchise history. They have passed for at least 275 yards in all four of their games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after passing for at least 275 yards in three straight games. But the bigger concern is their defense that is allowing 476.8 total YPG. The Seahawks are being outgained by -60.5 net YPG this season — it is their +5 net turnover margin that has helped them overcome that disparity. But the turnovers are fickle — and Seattle will not have the services of their star defensive back Jamal Adams for this game as he deals with a groin injury. As it is, the Seahawks have allowed at least 312 passing yards in all four of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 275 passing yards in three straight games. Seattle returns home where they will not have any fans in the stadium — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games. The Seahawks are also just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against fellow AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Cousins has the reputation of folding under the bright lights of nationally-televised prime-time games — but the numbers do not support that claim for Sunday Night Football. Cousin has led his team to a victory in four of his six starts on a Sunday night. Furthermore, his 320.5 passing YPG average, 73.3% completion percentage, and his 117.3 Passer Rating represent the best marks of all NFL quarterbacks playing on Sunday Night Football. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (475) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.