At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (211) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (212). THE SITUATION: Michigan (0-0) closed out a disappointing 8-5 campaign last year with a listless 26-19 loss to South Carolina in the Outback Bowl. Notre Dame (0-0) comes off a 21-17 win over LSU to conclude a 10-3 season in last year’s Citrus Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES PLUS THE POINTS: The en vogue Hot Take topic this week on sports cable shows has been whether or not Jim Harbaugh is on the hot seat this year at Michigan. Who exactly do these folks think is going to be banging down the doors to take the Michigan job if they dump their prodigal son in Harbaugh after four seasons? Bill Belichick? Harbaugh’s seat is ice-cold in Ann Arbor. But he certainly feels some urgency to start racking up some wins against traditional rivals. The Hot Takers point to Harbaugh’s inability to develop a quarterback in his first three seasons at Michigan while neglecting to remember that he took a graduate transfer in Jake Rudock who had lost his starting job at Iowa and made him into an NFL quarterback still rostered down the road with the Lions in just one year of stewardship with him. Harbaugh also nurtured the growth of a not highly recruited Wilton Speight who will be starting for Chip Kelly at UCLA to start this season. The fact is that two quarterbacks on Harbaugh’s roster failed to meet expectations. Shane Morris was a 5-star QB recruited by the previous head coach Brady Hoke who failed to develop in Harbaugh’s pro-style offense and lost his job to despite being a year older than Speight as a redshirt sophomore. Sensing trouble, Harbaugh brought in another transfer in Houston QB John O’Korn who simply could never learn how to read defenses. Both Morris and O’Korn were too loose with the football which is a red-hot negative for Harbaugh — especially with the outstanding defenses that he has overseen in his tenure at Michigan. Harbaugh has played the transfer card once again this year by acquiring junior Shea Patterson from Ole Miss who was granted a hardship waiver to be immediately eligible after being lied to by the despicable Hugh Freeze about the inevitable sanctions coming down on the Rebels’ football program. Patterson was a 5-star recruit coming out of high school who has shown flashes of brilliance in his first two years at Ole Miss. He was challenged in the offseason by something Harbaugh has yet to experience at Michigan: three other QBs on the depth chart that were his specific recruits. These trials and tribulations at QB aside, the overriding reason why the Wolverines have underachieved in Harbaugh’s tenure has been the play of the offensive line. The program was still feeling the effects of the Rich Rodriguez era who recruited smaller and quicker offensive linemen for his spread option attack when Harbaugh arrived. Harbaugh has also had scheme issues with assistant coaches on offense wanting to accomplish conflicting agendas. Harbaugh has been honest about these missteps during the offseason and swallowed hard by letting one of his long-time cronies in Tim Drevno go who was a co-offensive coordinator along with the offensive line coach. Harbaugh has brought in a new offensive line coach in Ed Warinner who coached Ohio State to a National Championship with that unit. He also tapped former Florida head coach Jim McElwain to serve on the offensive coaching staff with the other offensive coordinator from last year in Pep Hamilton who brings with him an NFL pedigree. Say what you want about Harbaugh but he is not afraid of bringing strong personalities into the room — and he is not standing pat with recent results. That philosophy has worked wonders on the defensive side of the football where third-year defensive coordinator Don Brown has built a dynasty with the talent at his disposal in Ann Arbor after coordinating the nation’s top defense at Boston College back in 2015. Michigan returns nine starters on defense along with fourteen of the top sixteen tacklers from a group that was 3rd in the nation by holding opponents to just 271.0 total YPG. It is the strength on defense led by one of the best defensive lines in the nation that makes the Wolverines the strong play tonight. Notre Dame lost two All-American offensive linemen from last year who were both drafted in the first round of the NFL draft. The Irish are now inexperienced on their offensive line while seeing only one player at the same position from last year’s bowl game. That is not a good sign for an offense that scored only 18.4 PPG in their last four games last year after scoring 41.3 PPG in their first nine contests. It was a breakdown on the offensive line that caused their problems late in the season as they averaged only 145 rushing YPG over those last four games while allowing 16 sacks. Senior Brandon Wimbush looks to be the starting quarterback again this season despite completing only 49.5% of his passes while demonstrating difficulties to adapt to complicated defenses that he will surely see this evening. Don’t be surprised if head coach Brian Kelly calls on redshirt sophomore Ian Book before this game is over after a good spring and a strong outing in their bowl game win. But the team will be without senior running back Dexter Williams who has been suspended for the first four games of this season. The Fighting Irish lost a lot of talent to the NFL from last year while seeing their national recruiting rankings dip over the years from years of disappointment in not returning to the College Football Playoff. Kelly also had to hire his third defensive coordinator in three years with Clark Lea promoted to the position after Mike Elko decided the defensive coordinator position at Texas A&M was more attractive than the one in South Bend. The Irish have failed to cover the point spread in expected close games in 4 of their last 6 contest when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Notre Dame has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Big Ten opponents. Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in the month of September — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Harbaugh’s teams have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total in that 42.5 to 49 range.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan opened as the small road favorite in this game but has been bet down with Notre Dame being the favorite in some spots as the home team in this nationally televised night game. Trust the wisdom in the oddsmakers when they originally posted this line. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Michigan Wolverines (211) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (212). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (182) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (181). THE SITUATION: North Texas (0-0) begins their season coming off a 9-5 campaign that culminated in a 50-30 loss to Troy in the New Orleans Bowl. SMU (0-0) was 7-6 last season after an upset 51-10 loss they suffered at the hands of Louisiana Tech.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MEAN GREEN MINUS THE POINTS: North Texas returns seventeen starters from last year’s group that played nine bowl teams. The Mean Green need to focus on reducing their turnovers this season: in their nine wins, they had just a -2 net turnover margin but they endured a -9 net turnover margin in their five losses. UNT had a +1 net turnover margin in 2016 so third-year head coach Seth Littrell should receive a positive visit from the Regression Gods this year. Littrell should have his team fired up to play this game after they were crushed by the Mustangs last year in Dallas by a 54-32 score in a game where they suffered a -2 net turnover margin that overwhelmed their matching SMU’s 493 total yards in that game. Now this game is played in Denton where the Mean Green have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games. UNT returns nine players on offense led by QB Mason Fine who oversaw a group that finished 9th in the nation by scoring 35.5 PPG. The Mean Green have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played in the month of September. And in their last 9 games played against teams outside Conference USA, North Texas has covered the point spread 7 times. SMU returns fourteen starters but they only have seven seniors on their roster making them a less experienced group overall than last year. The Mustangs defense needs plenty of work as they allowed 476.7 total YPG which was 121st in the FBS — and this is why this game risks being a blowout for the home team. SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games in expected high-scoring games where the Total was set at 70 or higher. This will be Sonny Dykes first regular season game coaching for this team after he was hired just in time to coach the team during their bowl game last December. Dykes teams have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games with the Total set at 70 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The road team has lost eight of the last nine games in the dubbed Safeway Bowl between these two teams. Defense has never been a strong suit for Dykes-coached teams — and inherits a group that needed a lot of work. Look for North Texas to avenge their September loss last season. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the North Texas Mean Green (182) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (181). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (193) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (194). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-0) begins their season coming off a 10-3 campaign that ended in a disappointing 35-28 loss to Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl. Auburn (0-0) saw their National Championship aspirations thwarted by a loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship before they limped through their bowl game in an uninspired 34-27 loss to Central Florida in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Washington opened as a small favorite in the -2.5 range but this game was bet the other way where now it is Auburn laying up to field goal in many spots. Much has been said about this being a de-facto home game for the Tigers who not only are just a short 90 minute drive east on I-20 to Atlanta but will be playing their third straight game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium after the SEC Championship Game then the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. What does not get mentioned in that spiel is that Auburn got blown out in both those games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games played in a dome. The Tigers lost a ton of talent that moved on from the NFL from that team last year. The biggest concern is on the offensive line where they lost five senior starters from last year’s team. Washington lost their massive defensive tackle Vita Vea from their defense who took this talents to the NFL — but they remain a loaded defensive team that returns nine starters with 72% of their tackles back from last year’s team that finished 5th in the FBS by allowing 16.1 PPG while also ranking 8th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 298.0 total YPG. The Huskies defensive backfield may be the best group in the nation with six players returning who had at least six starts last year — and that group allowed only 5 touchdown passes in Pac-12 play which was the lowest amount since USC in 2008. Washington has key talent returning on offense as well led by senior quarterback Jake Browning and senior running back Myles Gaskin. Injuries decimated the wide receiver unit last year but Browning and Gaskin were the core of the offense two years ago that made the College Football Playoff. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games in the first-half of the season including covering the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games played in the opening two weeks of the season. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral field — and they are just 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams outside the SEC.

FINAL TAKE: Auburn is being given a lot of unearned credit for this game being played in Atlanta despite their track record in Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Too many bettors are forgetting about the talent Chris Petersen has accumulated in Spokane — and this is probably the best team he has ever coached including his great teams at Boise State. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Washington Huskies (193) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (194). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (206) plus the points versus the Washington State (205). THE SITUATION: Washington State Cougars (0-0) kicks off their season coming off an 8-5 campaign that concluded with a 42-17 loss to Michigan State in the Holiday Bowl. Wyoming (1-0) played last Saturday in a dominant 29-7 win at New Mexico State where they were 5.5-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: We had a strong play on the Under in that Wyoming game last week and were rewarded with a dominant defensive effort from them as they held the Aggies to just 135 yards of offense and a mere seven first downs. Senior running back Nico Evans exploded with 190 rushing yards on 24 carries and two touchdowns while helping the offense control the Time of Possession for 40:41 in that game. Redshirt freshman Tyler Vander Waal looked steady under center replacing the departed Josh Allen as he completed 13 of 22 passes for 137 yards but did not turn the ball over. The Cowboys return home in a great position to build off that momentum as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after both a straight-up win and after a point spread victory. Wyoming outgained New Mexico State by +315 net yards in that win — and they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 yards while also covering the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. Furthermore, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 175 passing yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Wyoming has a significant home-field advantage in the high altitude of Laramie which is 7220 feet above sea level — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. This is a difficult opening game for a Washington State team that has lost five of their last six opening games under head coach Mike Leach. The Cougars have also lost seven straight opening games to a new season when on the road. This team’s fitness will certainly be challenged by the thin air in Laramie that they will not be familiar with. As it is, Washington State has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. The Cougars return just ten starters from last year’s group with Leach still officially noncommittal regarding who will replace their quarterback Luke Falk. This will be the first time in seven seasons where Washington State is unsettled at the QB position. Leach has a couple of jucos and a true freshman in the mix but it will likely be a graduate transfer in Gardner Minshew who came over from East Carolina who will get the call. The Cougars have been last in the FBS in five of the last six seasons in rushing attempts so this is not a program that is built to have the running game make things easier for their quarterback. The defense lost two of the key contributors last year in All-American defensive end Hercules Mata’afa and defensive coordinator Alex Brinch who oversaw significant improvement with that unit. Washington State has won sixteen of their last twenty games at home to demonstrate a strong home field advantage — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. The Cougars have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against a non-conference opponent.

FINAL TAKE: Wyoming has a significant advantage in having their first game under their belts. They return home with confidence that makes them a dangerous underdog in this game against a football team with a history of poor starts to a new season — especially on the road. 25* CFB CBS-Sports Network Game of the Month with the Wyoming Cowboys (206) plus the points versus the Washington State (205). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (173) minus the points versus the Maryland Terrapins (174). THE SITUATION: Texas (0-0) enters this game coming off a 7-6 campaign that concluded with a 33-16 win over Missouri in the Texas Bowl. Maryland (0-0) comes off a disappointing 4-8 campaign. While the Terrapins are the technical home team for this contest, the game will be played on a technical neutral field at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland which is the home of the Washington Redskins.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: The Terrapins are a mess right now amidst the tragedy in the offseason where one of their players passed away during a summer practice. The debacle has third-year head coach D.J. Durkin suspended for this game and fighting to keep his job after the utter failure in control to maintain the safety of his players. New offensive coordinator Matt Canada will serve as the interim head coach after coming off from LSU in the offseason. What Maryland did not need to enter this season was more turmoil after they lost seven of their last eight games to close out a once-promising season. The Terrapins were blitzed in Big Ten play by being outgained by a whopping 128 net YPG. They are likely to start a freshman QB this afternoon in Kasim Hill who looked good in three games last year before suffering an ACL injury that ended his season. But this remains a Maryland team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog. Texas returns fourteen starters from last year’s group that lost four games by four points or less. This was also a team riddled with injuries as they ranked 13th in the nation with 38 games lost by prospective starters to injuries. This team should make a major leap in quality of play in the second-year under head coach Tom Herman. The defense sees seven starters return from a group that tied for 29th in the FBS by allowing only 21.2 PPG. The Longhorns led the nation in 3rd down defense while ranking 4th in the nation by stuffing opponent’s rushing plays at or behind the line of scrimmage in 27.1% of those plays. The offense is the area that should the most immediate growth with Herman being an offensive guru - he has tapped sophomore Sam Ehlinger as his starter. Texas has covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams outside the Big 12 — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral field. Additionally, the Longhorns have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing in September. Lastly, Texas will have revenge on their minds after being shocked by the Terrapins at home last year by a 51-41 score. Maryland rushed for 263 yards in that opening game last year — but this Longhorns defense has come a long way since that September 2nd contest.

FINAL TAKE: Texas has had this game circled on their schedule for a long time now as they will be very motivated to start out strong after getting upset as 19-point favorites last year at this time. They should smell blood in the proverbial water with these Terrapins rocked with scandal. 10* CFB Texas-Maryland FS1-TV Special with the Texas Longhorns (173) minus the points versus the Maryland Terrapins (174). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (149) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (148). Colorado State (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a disappointing effort last week in their 43-34 upset loss at home to Hawai’i last Saturday despite being 17-point favorites in that game. Colorado (0-0) makes their debut this season after suffering a 5-7 campaign last season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Colorado State was not ready to face the Rainbow Warriors new Run-and-Shoot passing offense as they surrendered 617 yards in that contest with 418 of those yards being in the air. The Rams defense has a new staff this season led by new defensive coordinator John Jancek who had served as the coordinator for the Tennessee defense from 2013-15. He had his unit switch from a 3-4 to a 4-3 scheme and has to be very frustrated with the efforts of his group. But that should have ensured an alert group of players in practice this week. As it is, Colorado State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Rams have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last contest. Colorado State can take some positives from that game as graduate transfer K.J. Carta Samuels looked very good running the offense. The former Washington quarterback completed 34 of 50 passes for 537 yards while throwing 5 touchdown passes. Overall, the Rams generated 653 yards against Hawai’i — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after gaining at least 575 yards in their last game while also covering the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after passing for at least 375 yards. Moving forward, Colorado State is 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games when facing an opponent outside the Mountain West Conference. Colorado returns only ten starters from last year’s team that took a big step back from a 10-4 season back on 2016. The concern for sixth-year head coach Mike MacIntyre is just how swift the decline was last season as not only did they lose seven of their nine games in Pac-12 play but they were outgained by -87 net YPG against those opponents. The team returns junior Steven Montez at quarterback but they must replace their running back Phillip Lindsay along with their top four starters at wide receiver and three straight starters on the offensive line. The defense struggled to stop the run last year as they allowed their opponents to average 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry while ranking 109th by giving up 208.0 rushing YPG. They return four of their starters in that front seven — and they have to replace Isaiah Oliver in their defensive backfield who left for the NFL from a group that was 94th against the pass. This game will be played on a neutral field in Denver at the Broncos Stadium at Mile High — and the Buffaloes are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games played on grass.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado State should play much better this week on defense with the benefit of a game under their belts. It will be Colorado that will be dealing with opening day jitters and rust in this contest. While the Rams are very frustrated with their loss last week to Hawai’i, that all can be rectified by upsetting their in-state rival this week. Expect a close game where having the points will be quite valuable. 25* CFB Game of the Month with  Colorado State Rams (149) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Western Michigan Broncos (144) plus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (143). THE SITUATION: Syracuse (0-0) begins their season coming off a lackluster 4-8 campaign last year. Western Michigan (0-0) was 6-6 last year and also missed out on a bowl like the Orange.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Michigan was ravaged with injuries last season — they lost twenty-one players to season-ending injuries. The defense was hit hard with the loss of five safeties that just wreaks havoc on positional depth. But the Broncos were hit even worse on offense where they lost five running backs, five wide receivers and their starting quarterback Jon Wassink who suffer a season-ending injury in Week Eight. Western Michigan was a solid 5-3 with Wassink starting the game but lost three of their last four games once he went on the shelf with that depleted offense. Yet the Broncos still ended the season tied for 25th by scoring 33.9 PPG. This has the potential to be an explosive offense — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in expected high-scoring games with the Total set at least at 63. Wassink led the Mid-American Conference by completing 64.2% of their passes. They should play very well tonight with this opportunity to upset a Power-Five Conference opponent. Western Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in the first month of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games as an underdog. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against non-conference opponents. Syracuse has lost fourteen of their last eighteen games when opening their season on the road. The Orange collapsed on defense last year as they allowed 54 PPG with that unit exposed from their lack of depth. That unit may have simply been exhausted for being on the field too long in the Dino Babers hurry-up offense that has the residual negative effect of keeping his defense on the field. But this is also a team has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of August. Lastly, Syracuse is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on field turf.

FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a high-scoring game. Western Michigan is just one year removed from their 13-1 campaign and remain a dangerous Group of Five opponent for any Power-Five team. Expect a close game where the Broncos have the opportunity to pull the upset. 10* CFB Friday Night Kick Off with the Western Michigan Broncos (144) plus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (143). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (136) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (135). THE SITUATION: Purdue (0-0) finished with a 7-6 record last year after they defeated Arizona by a 38-35 score in the Foster Farms Bowl. Northwestern (0-0) concluded a strong 10-3 season with their 24-23 victory over Kentucky in the Music City Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Wildcats won last year’s meeting between these two teams back on November 11th by a 23-13 score as a 6.5-point favorite. Purdue will also be looking to avenge a rough 45-17 loss to Northwestern the last time these two teams played in West Lafayette. The Boilermakers had a 10-0 early lead in that game before surrendering a whopping 605 yards in that blowout loss. Purdue has lost their last four games against the Wildcats but this will be just their second meeting against them with second-year head coach Jeff Brohm. He leads the Boilermakers to a 7-6 winning record last year which was a big improvement over their 3-9 campaign in 2016. Brohm is an offensive coach but the team’s progress was best measured by their significantly better play on defense as they ranked 24th in the FBS by allowing only 20.5 PPG. Only four starters return from that unit but defensive coordinators Nick Holt and Anthony Poindexter have the benefit of working with these players for over a year now. Brohm has not tipped his hand regarding who his starting quarterback will be after relying on senior David Blough and junior Elijah Sindelar last season. It looks like it will be Sindelar will get the nod (although I suspect both players will get time in this game). The big-armed QB passed for 376 yards against Northwestern last season. If there are some speed bumps with the Boilermakers defense this year, their offense that returns nine starters should keep them in this game. Purdue has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as a favorite — and the Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games in the first half of the season. Northwestern enjoyed a very fortunate season last year as they led the nation with the fewest games lost to injury while benefiting from winning all three of their games decided by one scoring possession. The big question for this team is the health of their 5th-year senior quarterback Clayton Thorson who tore his ACL in the Music City Bowl. While head coach Pat Fitzgerald has not announced who will be his starting QB for this game, Thorson was cleared to take part in practices earlier this month and will likely. However, Thorson has yet to see his recovered knee tested against live competition. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the first two weeks of a new season.

FINAL TAKE: Brohm proved he was one of the best coaches in the country by immediately making the Boilermakers competitive after building a very strong program at Western Kentucky. Northwestern enters this season probably a bit overvalued — and their QB situation is less than ideal with Thorson returning from injury. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Purdue Boilermakers (136) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (135). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (140) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (139). THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (0-0) comes off an 8-5 season last year that culminated by 55-52 win over Texas A&M in the Belk Bowl. Tulane (0-0) is looking to reach a bowl game this year after a 5-7 campaign in 2018.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE PLUS THE POINTS: Tulane returns fourteen starters from last year’s team in the third season under head coach Willie Fritz. The offense should make a jump this year after averaging 27.5 PPG as the personnel on the roster continues to better fit the run-first spread option that Fritz oversaw at Georgia Southern before coming over to the Big Easy. His Green Wave teams have steadily improved as their -20 net point differential last year was much better than the -43 net point differential in 2016 and the ugly -199 net point differential in that 2015 year prior to Fritz being wooed from Georgia Southern. Fritz has the quarterback to run this offense with senior Jonathan Banks who made big improvements in the second-half of last season with his passing game as he threw for 565 yards in those two games to offer a better complement to the Tulane ground game. Not coincidentally, the Green Wave upset Houston and almost upset SMU in those two games. This Tulane team was battle-tested last year as they faced nine bowl-eligible teams — and they lost four of these games by 6 points or less. The Green Wave have covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Tulane has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Furthermore, Fritz should have his team ready to play as the Green Wave have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in the first-half of the season in his tenure. Wake Forest has lost twenty-two of their last twenty-nine road openers straight-up — so they are prone to slow starts. They will be without their top quarterback on the depth chart in junior Kendall Hinton who was expected to replace the graduated John Wolford. Hinton has been suspended for the first three games of this season. Even worse for head coach Dave Clawson, sophomore Jamie Newman is questionable for this game with a quad injury which leaves the team relying on a true freshman in Sam Hartman as their man under center tonight. Hartman was lower-ranked QB coming out of high school than Newman so this is not a good turn of events for this Demon Deacon team that returned eight other starters on offense. Wake Forest lost some key players on the defensive side of the football so that group may be work in progress early this year. The Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 road games when laying 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest opens this season with a number of question marks on both sides of the football which makes them precarious favorites when playing in a hostile environment. Expect a close game. 20* CFB Wake Forest-Tulane CBS Sports Network Special with the Tulane Green Wave (140) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (139). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (294) minus the points versus the Hawai’i Warriors (293). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (0-0) closed out last season losing their last five games to conclude a disappointing 3-9 campaign. Colorado State (0-0) comes off a 7-6 season that ended in disappointment when they were upset as 5.5-point favorites to Marshall in the New Mexico Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE COLORADO STATE MINUS THE POINTS: The Rams enters this season returning nine starters from the team. The team had a scare this month with head coach Mike Bobo having a medical issue — but he was cleared to rejoin the team on Wednesday and will be on the sidelines for this opening contest. Colorado State was very close to experiencing a much better year that could have included a spot in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. The team blew a 14-point lead to Boise State with 2 minutes left in the 4th quarter before losing to the Broncos in overtime. The Rams outgained their Mountain West Conference opponents by +76 net YPG but only had a 5-3 record. Suffering three net upsets ruined what could have been a much better final record. Talent remains on this team particularly at running back. They also have an intriguing player at quarterback in graduate transfer K.J. Carta-Samuels who has been the backup at Washington for the last few seasons. Colorado State typically starts strong as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played in the month of August. The Rams also enjoy a strong home-field advantage in the high altitude of Colorado. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by 14.5 to 17 points — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 home games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. Hawai’i has only one victory in the Mountain Time Zone since 2012 when they joined the Mountain West Conference. They return nine starters for a team that is implementing new schemes on both sides of the football — so this early game is a big challenge for this inexperienced group. They will have a new quarterback under center as well with Dru Brown ending his 22-straight starts by transferring to Oklahoma State in the offseason. The Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when getting 14.5 to 21 points. Additionally, Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Lastly, the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games in Mountain West Conference play.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado State crushed Hawai’i in their last meeting on September 30th by a 51-21 score. It might be tempting to take the Warriors with this opportunity to avenge a loss where they surrendered so many points — but that will be a tough task for this young team so early in the season when adjusting to a new 4-3 defense along with new schemes on offense. Bobo’s teams are reliable at home when they are expected to overwhelm their opponent. 10* CFB Hawaii-Colorado State CBS-Sports Network Special with the Colorado State Rams (294) minus the points versus the Hawai’i Warriors (293). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 4th, we will be playing the New England Patriots (102) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (101) in the Super Bowl. Everything for Philadelphia (15-3) went right after falling behind in the NFC Championship Game after they fell behind by a 7-0 score as they then rattled off 38 unanswered points to upset the Vikings by a 38-7 score. Their momentum was triggered by a 50-yard interception return for a touchdown that tied the score at 7-7 and settled down Nick Foles and the Eagles offense while also igniting the crowd. We had Minnesota in that game — and, frankly, I am largely dismissing that result as the outcome of two outlier performances. The Vikings probably played their worst game of the season as they admitted in retrospect that they were emotionally spent after their dramatic last-second win over the Saints the previous week. Philadelphia also played one of their best games of the season — and I am expecting a big letdown for this team after such a dominant performance. As it is, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. But Philadelphia has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset win by at least three touchdowns as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games after an upset win by at least three touchdowns as a home dog. Remember, this Eagles team squeaked by Atlanta in their previous playoff game due in large measure to the ineffective Falcons Red Zone offense this season. Despite how good Foles’ playoff numbers are (that we will hear about for two weeks), the Eagles scored only 15 points against Atlanta despite being at home. Over their last three games, Philly is scoring just 17.7 PPG while averaging a mere 336.3 total YPG. In Foles’ first four games since taking over for Carson Wentz, he was Checkdown Charlie who completed just 2 of his 15 passes of more than 20 yards in the air for a miserable 13.8 Passer Rating. Foles exploded against Minnesota by completing 4 of 6 passes of 20 or more yards in the air for 172 yards and two TD passes — but I have to credit some of that to the Vikings’ simply being shellshocked during what turned out to be a 38-0 run. Foles looked awful in his final two regular season games. I expect the true Nick Foles is somewhere in the middle of these performances — and that is not in Tom Brady’s dimension. The Philadelphia defense also deserves mention as they have flexed their muscles by allowing just 33 combined points over their last four games while never allowing more than 10 points in any of those games. But all those games were at home. In their three previous games on the road (before this recent stretch), the Eagles allowed 88 combined points at Seattle, at the Los Angeles Rams and at the New York Giants (and no doubt the Patriots will study what Eli Manning did in shredding the Philly defense for 795 passing yards in two games this season). Philadelphia allowed 23.5 PPG on the road this season with six of their eight opponents scoring at least 23 points — their seasonal stats are skewed by allowing just 9 points against that Cowboys team without both Ezekiel Elliott and left tackle Tyron Smith. Playing on turf might also be an issue for this team after playing on field turf just three times this season. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the faster field turf. Throw-in their lack of recent playoff experience playing away from home and the lack of Super Bowl experience for most of the players and coaches on the staff and this is all new territory for this team. With the back of all the members of this organization knowing that they reached the Super Bowl without QB Carson Wentz, left tackle Jason Peters and linebacker Jordan Hicks, this team has the profile of a group that may turn out to just be happy to be in the Super Bowl.

New England (15-3) is clearly focused on winning a second straight Super Bowl while adding credentials to the mark in the history books. Remember that this team began the year with talk of them going through the season undefeated. While that did not happen, they have now won five straight games with their 24-20 win over Jacksonville in the AFC Championship Game — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning at least five straight games. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in ten of their last twelve games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Eagles were able to seize momentum against the Vikings not only with that defensive touchdown but also with a +3 net turnover margin. It is highly unlikely that the Patriots will be as giving as Minnesota was. New England has only turned the ball over three times in their last five games — and never more than one time during those five games. In fact, the Patriots only had 13 turnovers all season with just four of those games seeing them turn the ball over more than once and never more than twice in a game. New England has turned the ball over twice in only two games over their last twelve contests. This is a team that emphasizes protecting the football. They also have a significantly better Special Teams than the Eagles (at least according to Football Outsiders than ranks the Patriots as 2nd in the NFL while rating the Philly Special Teams unit 21st in the league). Additionally, let me state something that will appear obvious at first glance but perhaps a subtler reason to like New England in this game upon deeper reflection: the key to this game for the Eagles is to prevent the Patriots from getting off to a fast start. New England has played ten playoffs games over the last four postseasons where they are 9-1 straight-up with two Super Bowl trophies and a third pending. The Patriots have gone into halftime with a lead in five of those games — and they have gone on to win all five of those games by an average winning margin of +20.6 PPG with the closest final score being their 27-20 win over Kansas City in the Divisional round in January 2016 where they went on to lose at Denver. In those remaining five games where they either trailed or were tied at halftime, they still on to win four of those games. Three of those wins were by 4 points with last year’s Super Bowl being that 34-26 overtime win over the Falcons. So perhaps Eagles bettors will take comfort in their potential halftime lead given those numbers? Yeah, maybe — as if those three 4-point wins represents overwhelming evidence versus a point spread that looks destined to be in the -4.5 to -5.5 point range (as of this writing). But I took note of the fact that the Patriots have not gone to halftime without a lead in two straight playoff games since this latest Super Bowl run started in the 2014-15 season. After trailing Jacksonville last week at the half by a 14-10 score and the memory of their near-disastrous 21-3 halftime deficit to the Falcons in last year’s Super Bowl, I think that Bill Belichick will place a premium on getting off to a good start. And with their vast playoff experience and the fact that almost everything went right for the Eagles in the first-half last week when they went to the lockers with a 24-7 lead, why would one not expect New England to once again avoid trailing (or being tied) at halftime in two straight playoff games? Consistency defines Belichick and Tom Brady. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs. And in their last 36 games as the favorite, the Patriots have then covered the point spread in 27 of these games. Perhaps the Eagles pull off their third straight upset victory? Perhaps the Patriots will win yet another Super Bowl by 4 points or less like they have done in four of their five Super Bowl Championships in the Belichick-Brady era? Perhaps … but it seems like almost everything has to go right for the Eagles to be in that position. New England has shown that even if everything does not go right for them, they still enter into coin-flip situations regarding if they will cover the point spread. And if the breaks go mostly their way, the Patriots cover the point spread easily. That is a great betting scenario when our worst case scenario still puts us in solid shape. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the New England Patriots (102) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (101) in the Super Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (313) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (314). Philadelphia (14-3) has won four of their last five games with their 15-10 upset win at home against the Falcons last Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog. The Eagles got out their Dog Masks after the game to bask in their pulling the upset against Atlanta — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after an upset win at home as an underdog. Philadelphia has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up victory. The Eagles survived that game despite a -2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a game where they committed at least two more turnovers than their opponent. QB Nick Foles is the reason why this team is an underdog yet again in this game — but it is for good reason. He was solid against the Falcons after completing 23 of 30 passes for 246 yards with no interceptions. But he did not throw a touchdown pass - -and he rushed for -2 yards. Unfortunately for the Eagles, that was probably the most they can expect to get out of their backup QB. Remember that Foles struggled in his previous two starts against Dallas and Oakland — he completed just 23 of 49 passes for 202 yards with one TD pass and two interceptions in those two games combined. The Eagles did use the bye week to redesign their offense by having Foles run the read-option plays that he thrived executing in his one season running the Chip Kelly offense with the Eagles a few years ago. Who knows if the Falcons spent much time preparing for that blast from the past last week in practice — but it is a guarantee that the Mike Zimmer will make sure his team invests a significant amount of time preparing for read-options that other teams like the Cowboys and Panthers also deploy. So the element of surprise for Philadelphia running this offense is gone. Foles sees his effectiveness decline significantly when facing pressure — and he does not do a great job making quick decisions regarding his read progressions with wide receivers. Those are bad qualities to have when facing this ferocious Vikings’ defense. The Eagles are scoring just 11.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging only 256.3 total YPG. The rushing game has not been able to step up to take pressure off Foles. Philadelphia has not rushed for more than 96 yards in three straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to rush for more than 100 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs.

Minnesota (14-3) survived their game with New Orleans last week with their 29-24 win Saints salvaged by the 61-yard touchdown pass to Stefan Diggs as time expired. I think that miraculous victory will galvanize this team and give them confidence moving forward — and it certainly cements any lingering doubts about the ability of Case Keenum to lead this team to the promise land. As it is, the Vikings have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. And while Minnesota failed to cover the 5.5-point spread as the favorite, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Keenum completed 25 of 40 passes for 318 yards and a touchdown pass against the Saints — and the Vikings have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Minnesota defense did give up 358 yards to the Drew Brees-led New Orleans offense — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The encouraging aspect of the Vikings defense for this game is their run defense that ranks 2nd in the NFL by limiting team to just 83.6 rushing YPG. They have allowed only 74 rushing YPG over their last  three games after giving up just 30 and 80 rushing yards in each of their last two games. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. This stout Vikings defense is particularly good on 3rd Down where they were tops in the NFL in limiting opposing offenses in converting 3rd Down plays. In fact, Minnesota only allowed opposing offenses to convert 51 3rd Downs during the regular season. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games as the favorite. 25* NFC Playoff Game of the Year with the Minnesota Vikings (313) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

BRADY WRIST-GATE UPDATE (Friday): The line has moved down to New England in the -7.5 point range with the news that Tom Brady injured his throwing wrist in practice. I released my AFC plays before this took place (taking the Patriots at -8.5). The Patriots’ Beat Writer says that the “chatter” is that Brady injured the area between his thumb forefinger. Brady can still throw but his snaps under center may be limited. Pain is the biggest issue (and he will likely be shot up before kickoff). That all said, in general, I don’t let rumors of injuries sway my handicapping on a game — so my recommendation is to just ride things out (like I am) if you you have already invested in this play. If you have yet to bet, I would jump all over any -7s you can find and be happy with -7.5. I am not letting these rumors diffuse from the strong fundamental play on the Patriots. For those needing a pick me up, I did hear that Brady has, in fact, thrown some passes in practice. It makes sense for the Pats to exhibit extreme caution with their veteran. Brady still benefited from just walking through the Thursday/Friday practices where specific offensive game plans and Red Zone plays were worked on — and many former NFL QBs argued that just walking through those plays to intellectualize them is all Brady really needs. Thanks, Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (312) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (311). Jacksonville (12-6) caught the Steelers looking way ahead to a possible rematch with their arch-nemesis New England last Sunday — and they raced out to a 21-0 lead in Pittsburgh before surviving by a 45-42 score as a 7-point underdog. I do expect this Jaguars team to suffer from an emotional letdown after that upset victory on the road. Not only has this team failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while they enjoyed a 28-14 lead at halftime in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after holding at least a two-touchdown lead at halftime of their last game. Now this team stays on the road for the fourth time in their last five games which is a dangerous proposition for a franchise that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games on the road. Some are comparing this team to the Baltimore Ravens and New York Giants teams that have had success against  the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady teams of the Patriots in the playoffs — and Tom Coughlin is an executive with this team with plenty of influence. But those teams had two significant differences with this Jaguars team. First, Blake Bortles has yet to prove he is (even) in the Joe Flacco or Eli Manning class of quarterbacks. Admittedly, he did not turn the ball over last week while completing 14 of 26 passes for 214 yards and a touchdown pass — and this performance earned rave reviews from many NFL pundits who lower than standards when assessing him. Keep in mind that Bortles completed only three passes that traveled in the air more than 10 yards against the Steelers. And Jacksonville was able to never ask Bortles to do too much after racing out to that early lead — helped greatly by yet another defensive touchdown against that Pittsburgh team. Remember that it was just a short week ago when Bortles became just the 5th NFL passer to not generate at least 100 yards in the air in a playoff game since 2006 in that contest with the Bills where he visibly looked uncomfortable to throw the ball downfield. Second, this Jaguars defense is good — but this is not an elite unit like those Giants or Ravens groups. Yes, the Jaguars finished 2nd in the NFL in both points allowed (16.8 PPG) and total yardage (286.1 total YPG) — but check out their strength of schedule. Jacksonville was able to pad their numbers with NFL’s least productive division in terms of offense in the AFC South against Tennessee, Indianapolis and Houston (they were fortunate to avoid QB DeShaun Watson both times). Throw in additional games against Cleveland, Baltimore in Week Three (that London game when their offense was ravaged with injuries and still finding itself), Cincinnati in Week Seven (when their offensive line was imploding) and then Buffalo in the Wild Card game. Then throw in their first game with the Steelers where they won by a 30-9 score with the benefit of two defensive touchdowns and five interceptions — and they allowed 65 combined points for a measly 6.5 PPG scoring average in those top ten defensive performances. There are six games — representing 33% of their results this year that should raise eyebrows for the wrong reasons: last week against the Steelers where they allowed 42 points and 545 yards of offense; allowing 44 points and 364 yards of offense against a Jimmy Garoppolo-led 49ers offense on December 24th; allowing 27 points and 344 yards of offense led by Blaine Gabbert; allowing 27 points in a loss to the LA Rams on October 15th; allowing 23 points and a whopping 471 yards in a loss to the Jets on October 1st; allowing 37 points and 390 yards of offense to Titans back on September 17th. Of their eighteen games including their two in the playoffs, Jacksonville has played six playoff teams (with the Bills and Steelers’ second-meeting being in the actual playoffs). They are 3-3 overall in those games — but they are allowing 22.2 PPG and 341.7 total YPG in those six contests. Of course, the Jaguars had the benefit of facing the likely two worst teams to make the playoffs in Tennessee (twice) and Buffalo in the Wildcard round. Take away those three games to just assess how this Jaguars defense performed against Pittsburgh (twice) and the LA Rams and the results are simply unimpressive: 26.0 PPG and 388.3 total YPG allowed. Where this Jags’ defense struggles when compares to those Super Bowl winning Ravens and Giants teams that defeated the Brady/Belichick combo is in run defense. Jacksonville ranked 21st in the NFL during the regular season by allowing 116.2 rushing YPG. This is where the Patriots will attack. And while the Jaguars held the Steelers to just 83 rushing yards (on only 18 carries with Pittsburgh playing from a big deficit), they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game.

New England (14-3) will focus their defensive efforts on taking away the Jaguars’ best offensive weapon — and that means their rookie running back Leonard Fournette. In their 35-14 win over the Titans last week, the Patriots held Tennessee to just 65 rushing yards on only 16 rushing attempts. I made the same argument last week that the Pats would focus on stopping Derrick Henry and force QB Marcus Mariota to beat them. Marietta threw the ball 37 times for only 202 yards. Pundits that are still assessing the Patriots’ season-long statistics are missing the point. Ignore the fact that New England ranks 20th in run defense (114.8 rushing YPG). Over their last three games, the Patriots are holding teams to just 63 rushing YPG along with a 3.2 Yards-Per-Carry average. They have allowed only three rushing TDs since Week Five which is the second stingiest number in the league. In fact, since Week Five, the New England defense leads the NFL by holding opponents to just a 64.7% scoring success rate in the End Zone — and they also lead the NFL by allowing only 14.0 PPG since Week Five. And forget the Hot Take that the Patriots lack a pass rush as this year’s team ranks 6th in the NFL since Week Five with 34 sacks — and that was before they sacked Mariota last week eight times. New England has not allowed more than 17 points in each of their last six games at home. This team is rolling having won and covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a double-digit win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring at least 30 points int heir last game. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 5 playoff games at home, New England has covered the point spread all 5 times. 20* NFL Jacksonville-New England CBS-TV Special with the New England Patriots (312) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (307) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (308). New Orleans (12-5) proved their playoff experience mettle last week in a gritty 31-26 victory over Carolina as a 6.5-point favorite. QB Drew Brees led an offense that generated 410 yards against a very good Panthers defense despite having the football for only 26:11 minutes in that game. The Saints have not paid off betting tickets in two straight weeks — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games. The conventional wisdom regarding this team stubbornly remains that they are not as good on the road as they are at home in the Superdome. While they were 4-4 away from home this season, they outscored their opponents by +7.7 PPG due to an improved defense that holds their home hosts to just 18.2 PPG along with only 326.9 total YPG. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road — and this includes covering the point spread in eight of their last nine road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of January. Additionally, they are a decisive 42-20-1 ATS in their last 63 games against teams with a winning record. New Orleans is a very dangerous underdog in this situation — as it is, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, this Saints team will be playing with revenge on their mind after their 29-19 loss to the Vikings in the opening week of the season. This New Orleans team has improved on both sides of the ball since then — led mainly by the continued improvement of the rookies they drafted on both offense and defense. The Saints are much more balanced on offense now than they were in those salad days of early September — and they have will have seven different starters on the field today than they did in that opening game). Rookie running back Alvin Kamara ran the ball only 8 times for 18 yards with Adrian Peterson still on the team then taking away 6 carries while being limited in passing situations as a receiver and blocker. This New Orleans team has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when playing with revenge. Additionally, keep in mind that this Saints team has defeated five teams that made the playoffs this season — as opposed to the Vikings who beat three teams that made the playoffs (with New Orleans being one of those teams back in Week One).

Minnesota (13-3) has won three straight games with their 23-10 victory over the Bears on December 31st. The Vikings held a 16-7 lead at halftime in that game which was the third straight week that they went to the locker rooms at halftime with a double-digit lead. Unfortunately for Mike Zimmer’s team, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after holding at least a touchdown lead in their last three games. QB Case Keenum has earned a lot of money for himself by playing great football this season — particularly since Week 10. But this will be his first playoff start in his career while Brees will be making his thirteenth playoff start which includes one where he led his team to a Super Bowl victory. Brees should have a big advantage late in this game — his moxie and experience should ensure that his team is in a position to win this game before the final seconds tick away. Lastly, because the Saints have averaged 11.2 and 7.0 Yards Per Passing Attempt in their last two games, that helps place the Vikings into a nasty “play-against” angle that has been 77% effective over the last five seasons. Minnesota held the Bears to just 4.6 Yards Per Passing Attempt in their last game — but home favorites who held their last opponent to 5.5 or less Yards Per Passing Attempt in their last game now facing a team that has generated at least a 7.0 YPP in each of their last two games have then failed to cover the point spread in 27 of the last 35 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the New Orleans Saints (307) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (306) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (305). Pittsburgh (13-3) has experienced an interesting week with Le’Veon Bell publicly speculating about sitting out next season given a potential contract dispute while other players already discussing a possible matchup with the Patriots next week. But I think that any chance of this team taking the Jaguars lightly in practice this week was eliminated when they got crushed by this Jacksonville team back on October 8th by a 30-9 score despite being a 7-point favorite at home. Ben Roethlisberger certainly remembers that game as he threw 5 interceptions in that defeat — so he has much to make up for in this rematch. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 home games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home. Pittsburgh has a significant experience advantage in this contest. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games in the playoffs. The Steelers are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 Divisional Playoff games. On the plus side, Pittsburgh does look to get wide receiver Antonio Brown on the field — although it remains unclear how effective he can be with that calf.

Jacksonville (11-6) outlasted Buffalo last week in their 10-3 win over the Bills as an 8-point favorite. The Jaguars continued to be dominant on defense as they held the Bills to just 263 yards of offense while limiting them to only 3.65 Yards-Per-Play. Unfortunately for this Jacksonville team, such dominating defensive efforts has not translated into point spread success in the following week. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have not covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games not allowing their opponents to score more than 9 points in their last contest. Additionally, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 4.0 YPP in their last game. The offensive side of the football is the problem for this team. Any sense of optimism regarding the growth of QB Blake Bortles during the regular season has been dissipated after his lackluster effort last week. It is not just that he completed only 12 of 23 passes for 87 yards which made him only the 4th starting quarterback to fail to pass for least 100 yards in a playoff game since 2006, it is the evident lack of confidence he now has in throwing the football. He was wildly inaccurate in his misses — and the wind is only so much of an excuse. Too often against the Bills, Bortles abandoned passing the football and tried to move the ball with his legs. The Jaguars managed only 230 yards of offense. The Steelers will clearly stack the box to slow down Leonard Fournette and dare an insecure Bortles to beat them with his arm. That is an uncomfortable formula for this Jacksonville team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games as well as in 5 of their last 6 playoff games on the road. 25* AFC Playoff Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (306) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (304) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (303). New England (13-3) has been a favorite laying at least 13 points at home in the AFC Playoffs three times in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era — and all were in the Divisional Round of the Playoffs. They have covered the point spread twice — defeating the Texans by a 34-16 score as 16-point favorites last season as well as beating Denver by a 45-10 score as 14-point favorites back in 2012. Their lone point spread defeat in a similar Playoff situation was back on 2008 when they “only” beat Jacksonville by a 31-20 score when they were laying 13.5-points. Furthermore, the Patriots have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games when laying more than 10 points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as a favorite laying 10.5 to 14 points. So while laying close to two touchdowns can be risky business in the NFL, backing Brady and Belchick in that situation has been profitable. New England has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games against AFC opponents. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Additionally, New England has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the Playoffs including their last four games at home in the Playoffs.

Tennessee (10-7) rallied from a 21-3 halftime deficit to secure eke out a 22-21 win at Kansas City as an 8.5-point underdog last Saturday. But this Titans team is 16-38-2 ATS in their last 56 games after a straight-up victory — and they are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of the last 6 after a win by 3 points or less. And in their last 6 games after an upset win as an underdog, the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in all 6 games. This is a very tough assignment for a team that has been outscored and outgained by their opponents this season. Additionally, not only has this Tennessee team failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record at home but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of the last 11 road games as an underdog in the 10.5 to 14 point range. The Titans will want to run the ball — but those plans will have to be abandoned if and when they fall behind. QB Marcus Mariota leads the NFL with 13 interceptions when he is not facing pressure — so things will probably get ugly. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the New England Patriots (304) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (302) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (301). Philadelphia (13-3) is the first top seed in the Divisional Round of the playoffs to be listed as a home underdog in the history of the NFL — and this will certainly add more fuel to their fire in this game. The Eagles are getting the points in this game in large part because they are facing a surging Falcons team that reached the Super Bowl last year. But QB Nick Foles has struggled in his last two starts taking over under center after the season-ending injury to Carson Wentz. The Eagles struggled on national television on Christmas night in their 19-10 win over the Raiders — and the offense was listless in Week 17 of the regular season when they could not score a point against the Cowboys in their 6-0 loss at home to Dallas a 4-point underdog (with that underdog status predicated on the team benching starters for much of that game). Don’t be surprised if this Philadelphia team comes out and plays their best game of the season since the Wentz injury. The Eagles defense remains loaded as they showed even with the offense struggling. Philadelphia ranks 4th in the NFL by limiting their opponents to just 18.4 PPG — and they also rank 4th in the league by allowing just 306.5 total YPG. On their home field, the Eagles see those numbers drop of just 13.4 PPG along with 280.6 total YPG. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Foles does struggle when facing pressure — like most quarterbacks. But he has plenty of starting experience and has thrived as a starting quarterback when given time to pass. Look for the Eagles coaching staff to design a very good game plan to help put Foles in a position to win. This Falcons pass rush is solid but certainly not spectacular. They were 13th in the league by averaging 2.44 sacks per game. Over their last six games in this crucial stretch of the season, Atlanta has seen their sack total drop to just 2.0 sacks per game. Foles will get help from the Eagles rushing attack behind Jay Ajayi and LaGarrette Blount who helped the team finished 3rd in the NFL by averaging 132.2 rushing YPG. Philadelphia was 7-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +15.2 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.

Atlanta (11-6) is finally getting tons of respect from bettors and NFL pundits after being dogged for most of the season as overachievers after making the Super Bowl last year but blowing that epic 28-3 halftime lead to the Patriots. But after the Falcons dominated the Los Angeles Rams last week on the road with their 26-13 victory, all those that hitched the ride on the advanced analytics that fell in love with that Rams team have to quickly find a new target for their affections. We loved the Falcons last week in that contrarian situation — and this is now a dangerous letdown spot on the road playing on grass in weather that looks to be under 50 degrees. Atlanta has failed to over the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in Philadelphia. This will be the fourth game over Atlanta’s last five contests where they will be away from home — and that type of strenuous schedule continues to fatigue and costly mistakes. The Falcons’ defense has been playing their best football this season over the last few weeks — they have only allowed 23 combined points over the last two weeks after clinching their spot in the playoffs in the last game of the regular season with their 22-10 win over Carolina. But Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 14 points in at least two straight games. The Falcons are also precarious road favorites — they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games as the favorite. They are only outscoring their opponents on the road by +0.5 PPG due to an offense that scores just 22.1 PPG away from home. Additionally, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 playoff games overall despite their Super Bowl run last year. 10* NFL Atlanta-Philadelphia NBC-TV Special with the Philadelphia Eagles (302) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (151) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (152) in the National Championship Game. Georgia (13-1) earned one of the biggest victories in their school’s program history with their 54-48 epic overtime victory over Oklahoma last Monday. But the fact that this history does not include championship game experience may play a role in how this showdown plays out. The Bulldogs have an inferiority complex with the Crimson Tide which will likely rear its ugly head in this game. Most of the teams in the SEC are insecure relative to the Alabama football program. Georgia fired Mark Richt despite him being one of their most successful coaches in their history because he was not leading them into enough championship games — as if the program was rife with those opportunities before they arrived. This is a football culture that still considers the Hershel Walker era as a recent event. The school tried to model themselves off the Crimson Tide program when they replaced Richt with Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart. While Smart has done a good job with the program, he lacks the pedigree and certainly the experience to out-coach his mentor in Nick Saban. Throw in the lack of playoff experience this roster has (as compared to that Clemson team that faced Alabama for the third straight time in the last three years in the playoffs) along with a true freshman at quarterback in Jake Fromm — and the results look like a team happy to be in this National Championship Game but also with likely significant doubts that they can pull off this upset. The Bulldogs showed some weaknesses in their win over the Sooners. Oklahoma generated a whopping 531 yards against what had been considered a stout Georgia defense. 289 of those yards were in the air — and the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Georgia has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a game where they scored at least 30 points while their opponent also scored at least 30 points. And while the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games.

Alabama (12-1) has played in the College Football Playoffs in four straight years — and this will be the third straight postseason where they play to win the National Championship. After avenging their 35-31 loss to Clemson in last year’s Championship Game on Monday, this team with eleven returning starters from that team will not be satisfied with just that victory. This is a team that is groomed to win championships each and every season under Saban — and this group is hungry. And while the Bulldogs are talented, this Crimson Tide team has better players. They dominated the Tigers in their 24-6 victory. They held the Clemson offense to just 188 total yards in that game at a paltry 2.69 Yards-Per-Play mark — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 3.25 YPP in their last game. Alabama has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after winning at least six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, the Crimson Tide has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral field. Alabama has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played on a field turf. And in their last 11 games as the favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points, the Crimson Tide has covered the point spread 7 times. 25* CFB Alabama-Georgia A-List Special with the Alabama Crimson Tide (151) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (152) in the National Championship Game. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (107) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (108). Carolina (11-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday in their 22-10 loss in Atlanta as a 5-point underdog. The Panthers have rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, while Carolina surrendered 311 passing yards to Matt Ryan in that game, they are then 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Panthers stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games. Carolina has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of January. This Panthers team lost both their encounters with the Saints this season — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 37 games when playing with double-revenge. Carolina lost to this team by a 31-21 score back on December 3rd — and they have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 50 games when looking to avenge a loss where their opponent scored at least 28 points.

New Orleans (11-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 31-24 loss at Tampa Bay as a 6-point favorite. This team typically does not respond to setbacks like that as they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games as an upset loss as a road favorite. The Saints surrendered 455 yards in that game — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. This New Orleans defense showed marked improvement this season — but this unit has been plagued with injuries as of late with the loss of starting Sam linebacker A.J. Klein and their Jack of All Trades strong safety Kenny Vaccaro being the biggest blows. The Saints also endured a -2 net turnover margin against the Buccaneers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 43 home games after suffering a -2 or worse turnover margin in their last game. The Trilogy of this NFC South battle between two teams with a head coach and quarterback combination that has been in the Super Bowl shapes up to be a very close game — giving value to the underdog with the points who can pull off the upset. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Carolina Panthers (107) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (106) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (105). Jacksonville (10-6) had nothing at stake last week but still played their starters in what ended up being a 15-10 loss in Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog. That setback should eliminate any chance of this team being overconfident in this game despite being a favorite but more than a touchdown. As it is, the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. And while the offense managed only 232 yards of offense, Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards of offense. The Jaguars managed only 83 rushing yards in that game with Leonard Fournette handily a relatively light load by rushing the ball only 19 times for 69 yards. The good news for Jacksonville is that Fournette should be fresh for this game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not rushing for more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Now the Jags return home where they outscore their opponents by +7.5 net PPG. The Jacksonville defense gets most of the attention — and they have been outstanding at home by holding their opponents to just 18.4 PPG along with only 283.7 total YPG. But the Jaguars offense has been strong at home where they are scoring 25.9 PPG while averaging 402.7 total YPG. Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of these games.

Buffalo (9-7) is a surprise entry into the postseason as they needed a late and improbable Cincinnati comeback victory over Baltimore to make into the playoffs after they defeated the Dolphins in Miami by a 22-16 score as a 2.5-point favorite. But their best offensive player LeSean McCoy suffered an ankle injury in that game which makes him a game time decision for this contest. Even if he plays, McCoy is not likely to be close to 100% — and that is very tough blow for this offense of which he accounts for 33% of its production. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They were outscored this season by -3.5 net PPG this season while also being outgained by -52.6 net YPG. They were just 3-5 on the road where those disparities were even worse. Buffalo was outscored by -7.0 PPG on the road this year while being outgained by -64.1 net YPG. Lastly, this will be the Bills third straight game away from home which may contribute to their fatigue. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year on the Jacksonville Jaguars (106) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (103) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (104). Atlanta (10-6) enters this Wildcard Playoff game playing as good of football as they have played all season after their 22-10 win at home over Carolina that clinched their spot in the playoffs. The Falcons have won three of their last four games to earn the opportunity to defend their NFC Championship. Playoff experience is a big advantage this team has when facing the Rams. This Atlanta team is underrated on the defensive side of the football. They held their opponents to just 19.7 PPG while limiting them to only 318.4 total YPG. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Atlanta did generate 371 yards against the Panthers defense — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And in their last 19 games against fellow NFC opponents, the Falcons have covered the point spread 13 times.

Los Angeles (11-5) rested their starters last week in their 34-13 loss to San Francisco. I am comfortable ignoring the results of that game. However, that was the Rams’ fourth loss at home this season where they are struggling to create a fervent local group of supporters. This has to be one of the weakest home field advantages that a playoff team has ever had when considering this franchise is relatively new again in Los Angeles. The Rams are just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games at home — and this includes have failed to cover the point spread in four of their last five home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Looking deeper at the numbers, while the Rams outscored their opponents by +9.3 net PPG, they only outgained these opponents by +21.6 net YPG. The Los Angeles’ run defense ranks only 28th in the NFL by allowing 122.3 rushing YPG — and they allowing opposing rushers to average 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. While the Falcons will be without guard Andy Levier, they will have both their running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman healthy for this game after both backs have been dealing with injuries in the closing weeks of the season. Additionally, I think there is a significant edge for the Falcons with their head coach Dan Quinn and their quarterback Matt Ryan as compared to the Rams’ Sean McVay and QB Jared Goff. While McVay is being hailed as an offensive guru, he has never coached a playoff game while coming from an organization in Washington that is not a perennial playoff team. For my tastes, his head is buried in his iPad too often and I worry this will result in game management issues. When it comes to Goff, I am not convinced he has progressed beyond being a product of the McVay system. In clutch situations, Goff has not delivered this season — and I have been watching closely with their home losses to Philadelphia and Seattle being two examples of this. Furthermore, while this Rams team has an outstanding Special Teams, they will really miss one of the best place kickers in the league with Greg Zuerlein going on Injured Reserve to a few weeks ago. All these intangibles provide context for a football team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of January — and this franchise has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs. The Rams may win this game — but I expect a very close contest with this Falcons team that will be a tough “out” with their experience of playing in the Super Bowl last season. 25* NFC Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Atlanta Falcons (103) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

SUBSCRIBERS, PLEASE NOTE: I have upgraded this Kansas City play to a 20* selection (from a 10* play initially). Thanks, Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (102) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (101). Kansas City (10-6) has won four straight gams after their 27-24 upset win at Denver as a 3-point underdog. That was a great result for the Chiefs as they won the game to maintain their momentum going into the playoffs but did so while resting their key starters. Look for KC to play very well in this game as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. The Chiefs have been very good at home where they are 6-2 this season with an average winning margin of +7.2 PPG. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on their home field.

Tennessee (9-7) clinched a spot in the playoffs with their 15-10 win over Jacksonville last Sunday. The Titans only managed 232 yards of offense in that game but benefited from two Blake Bortles interceptions and a +3 net turnover margin to win that game. Tennessee did limit the Jaguars to just 229 yards of offense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. This Titans team is being outscored by -1.3 net PPG while being outgained by -14.0 net YPG. On the road, it is even worse as Tennessee is being outscored by -6.4 net PPG while being outgained by -41.2 net YPG. The problem is Marcus Mariota and this Titans offense as they score just 17.5 PPG while averaging a mere 270.7 total YPG when on the road. Not surprisingly, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games on the road — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in ten of their last thirteen road games against teams with a winning record at home. 20* NFL Tennessee-Kansas City ESPN Special with the Kansas City Chiefs (102) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (274) minus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (273) in the Sugar Bowl. Alabama (11-1) saw their undefeated season spoiled in the Iron Bowl back on November 25th in a 26-14 upset loss at Auburn as a 5-point favorite. Look for the Crimson Tide to bounce-back with a very strong effort. Alabama has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss. The Crimson Tide has also covered the point spread in 42 of their last 63 road games after a straight-up loss. And in their last 7 games after failing to score more than 20 points, Alabama has covered the point spread 5 times. Nick Saban's team will be razor sharp as they look to bounce-back from that loss while also getting the opportunity to avenge their Championship Game loss to Clemson last season. Injuries at linebacker have slowed Alabama over the last month of the regular season -- which is one of the reasons why we went against them against Mississippi State and Auburn. But the Crimson Tide enters this game as healthy as they have been all season. Getting those linebackers back improves a stout defense that was already tops in the nation by allowing only 11.5 PPG. The Alabama offense also ranked 9th in the nation by scoring 39.1 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a neutral field. And in their last 4 games playing on field turf, the Crimson Tide have covered the point spread all 4 times.

Clemson (12-1) has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played on field turf. The Tigers are riding high having won six straight games since their loss at Syracuse after winning the ACC Championship Game by a 38-3 score over Miami (FL). But this Clemson team may be primed for a big letdown as they look to defend their National Championship now as the hunted team. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after winning at least six straight games. Clemson has covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games including failing to cover the point spread in three straight games in that situation. The Tigers have not allowed more than 14 points in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 17 points in four straight games and this includes failing to cover their last three games after not giving up more than 14 points in three straight. Lastly, Clemson has blowout their last three opponents by at least 24 points — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning at least three straight games by at least three touchdowns. 25* CFB Playoff Game of the Year with the Alabama Crimson Tide (274) minus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (273) in the Sugar Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (271) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (272) in the Rose Bowl. Oklahoma (12-1) clinched their spot in the College Football Playoff with their 41-17 win over TCU in the Big 12 Championship Game. The high-powered Sooners offense totaled 461 yards of offense against the Horned Frogs in that rematch — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. I am skeptical that the passing attack of this Oklahoma team will work against the speed of the Bulldogs defense. There is a reason why these video game offenses rarely work on a consistent basis in the NFL. It is telling that the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams from the SEC. Oklahoma has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games played on a neutral field with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. Additionally, I think this might be the competitive situation where the inexperience of first-year head coach Lincoln Riley begins to rear its ugly head. Remember, he was tapped as the Oklahoma head coach in the summer after Bob Stoops unexpectedly stepped down after eighteen years with the program. Preparing for the Bowl Playoffs is something even seasoned veterans learn from. Lastly for this Sooners team, their defense is only mediocre. Oklahoma allowed opponents to average 240.6 passing YPG which was 88th in the FBS. Overall, Oklahoma allowed 384.8 total YPG which was 59th in the nation and right smack in the middle of all FBS teams.

Georgia (12-1) has won three straight games since their loss at Auburn — culminating with their revenge win over the Tigers in the SEC Championship Game in their 28-7 win at Auburn. The Bulldogs have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a win by at least 20 points. Georgia has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing no more than 14 points in their last game. The Bulldogs averaged 6.68 Yards-Per-Play against Auburn — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP. Moving forward, Georgia has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when the favorite on a neutral field. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread 4 of their last 5 Bowl games. And in their last 5 games against teams outside the SEC, Georgia has covered the point spread 4 times. 25* CFB Georgia-Oklahoma Rose Bowl Special Feature with the Georgia Bulldogs (271) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (270) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (269) in the Citrus Bowl. Notre Dame (9-3) limped into this Bowl game having lost two of their last three games after their 38-20 upset loss at Stanford as a 3-point favorite back on November 25th. The Fighting Irish should be very motivated to make a strong showing for themselves in this contest. Notre Dame has lost nine straight Bowl games — so this group has the opportunity to distinguish themselves. This is also the first time all season that the Irish are the underdogs. The Fighting Irish are led by the nation’s best offensive line that was awarded the Joe Moore Award for this distinction in December — so they should be able to push back against the Tigers’ defensive line. The Irish have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after suffering an upset loss. Taking better care of the football will play a big role as they suffered a -3 net turnover margin agains the Cardinal. Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in four straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least four straight games. And in their last 23 games played on field turf, the Irish have covered the point spread 14 times.

LSU (9-3) has won three straight games with their 45-21 win over Texas A&M to close out their regular season. With head coach Ed Orgeron whispering about perhaps shaking up his coaching staff, this might not be the most cohesive and focused football program this postseason. They have been fortunate regarding turnovers in their winning streak as they have won the turnover margin in each of their last three games. The Tigers have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after enjoying at least a +1 net turnover margin in three straight games. LSU were the favorites in all three of those games. Not only have the Tigers then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games as the favorite but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after covering the point spread in three straight games overall. Their star linebacker Arden Key is out for this game with a knee injury while running back Derrius Guice is still not 100% with his injuries that slowed him down in the second-half of the season. Lastly, LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games against teams outside the SEC. 25* College Football Bowl Game of the Year with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (270) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (269) in the Citrus Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (268) minus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (267) in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. Central Florida (12-0) might be galvanized to pull the big upset in this game with the knowledge that three of the last four Group of Five football teams earning their one reserved spot in a New Year’s Six Bowl game has won their game. But Western Michigan was undefeated last year as well — and they lost to Wisconsin. This Knights team looks overmatched. While they led the nation by scoring 49.4 PPG, they enjoyed playing weak defenses up and down their schedule. The best defense Central Florida probably faced was against a middling South Florida defensive unit. To compound matters, the Knights ranked 110th in the FBS by allowing 262.8 passing YPG. Furthermore, while their departed head coach Scott Frost is still coaching them for this game, his attentions are certainly divided. Frost has been doing double-duty between preparing his former team for this Bowl game while also traveling to Lincoln to work on recruiting and lay the foundation for his new gig as the head coach at Nebraska. Central Florida is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Knights have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams from the SEC. They come off winning the American Athletic Conference Championship Game in a video game result where they generated 726 yards of offense in a 62-55 win in overtime over Memphis. But Central Florida surrendered an incredible 753 yards in that victory including 282 yards on the ground. The Knights have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game.

Auburn (10-3) looks to rebound from their 28-7 loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game as a 5-point underdog. The Tigers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. Auburn has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Tigers are also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Auburn has already spoiled two undefeated seasons this year in their first meeting against Georgia as well as against Alabama in the Iron Bowl. This battle tested team also played Clemson this year — making them the only team in the country to have played three of the four teams in the College Playoff (and beating two of them). They should be motivated to put a thumping on this Central Florida team that has been talking trash entering this game. The recruiting differences between these two programs is vast. Auburn is likely to expose the Knights this afternoon. 10* CFB Central Florida-Auburn ESPN Special with the Auburn Tigers (268) minus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (267) in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the South Carolina Gamecocks (265) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (266) in the Outback Bowl. Michigan (8-4) has lost two straight games entering this Bowl game after their 31-20 loss to Ohio State as a 12.5-point underdog to end their regular season. The Wolverines are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Michigan has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. The team was mired with injuries at quarterback which required them to play senior John O’Korn who simply did not have the ability to successfully check off his primary receiver — and defenses continually burned him on that. Redshirt freshman Brandon Peters showed promise when he was given the opportunity to play — but he suffered a concussion in the Wisconsin game that kept him out in those final two losses. Peters is back for this game which has helped the Wolverines to be favorites laying more than a touchdown — but Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as the favorite. The Wolverines are also just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 14 games played on grass as will be the case for this contest, Michigan has failed to cover the point spread 10 times.

South Carolina (8-4) looks to bounce-back from their 34-10 loss to Clemson to close out their regular season back on November 25th. The Gamecocks are not being given much respect — the fact that they have a negative net yardage differential is certainly not helping matters. But behind sophomore QB Jake Bentley, this is a group dominated by sophomores and juniors who are anxious to take their team to the next level next season in the third year under head coach Will Muschamp. South Carolina generated just 207 yards of offense against the Tigers — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to generate more than 275 yards in their last game. The Gamecocks are also 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games after a loss by at least 20 points. South Carolina did pull off four upset wins this season. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and this includes covering the point spread in 3 straight games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Lastly, the Gamecocks have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when playing on a neutral field. 10* CFB South Carolina-Michigan ESPN2 Special with the South Carolina Gamecocks (265) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (266) in the Outback Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (308) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (307). Atlanta (9-6) looks to bounce-back from their 23-13 loss in New Orleans last Sunday that snapped a two-game winning streak. The Falcons need a win here to clinch a Wild Card spot in the playoffs. Returning home will help after playing their last two games on the road. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing their last two games on the road. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And while they managed only 67 rushing yards last week, Atlanta has then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to rush for more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Falcons will also be playing with revenge on their minds from a 20-17 loss in Carolina back on November 5th — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when looking to avenge a loss by field goal or less in their last game against their opponent.

Carolina (11-4) will be watching the scoreboard during this game as confirmed by head coach Ron Rivera this week. It is very possible that Rivera will bench his starters if he sees that New Orleans looks destined to defeat the Buccaneers in a game that will be occurring at the same time. The Panthers are relegated to the 5-seed as the top Wild Card team if they cannot surpass the Saints to win the NFC South. The Saints are nearly a touchdown favorite on the road against a Tampa Bay team that has lost five straight games — and I do not like the Bucs enough to even take the points this afternoon. So I will not be surprised if the Panthers eventually throw in the towel in this game. As it is, Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against NFC South opponents. The Panthers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played in a dome. Carolina enters this game coming off their 22-19 win over the Buccaneers last week. The Panthers defense did show some vulnerabilities after allowing 392 yards of offense — and they are just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Carolina has been winning the turnover battle as of late — they have enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in three straight games. But the Panthers have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after having a +2 net turnover margin in two straight games. 25* NFL Sunday Afternoon Special Feature with the Atlanta Falcons (308) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (311) plus the points versus Tennessee Titans (312). Jacksonville (10-5) looks to rebound from their 44-33 upset loss at San Francisco last week despite being a 4-point favorite. The Jaguars have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after both a straight-up loss as well as after a point spread setback. Head coach Doug Marrone has indicated his team will play-to-win this game without resting their starters despite their slot in the playoffs locked-in. They need to get their defense in order after that rare bad game — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Jacksonville will be also playing with revenge on their minds after losing to the Titans back on September 17th by a 37-16 score. The Jaguars have covered then point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against fellow AFC South opponents. Jacksonville has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road. Additionally, the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 games in the month of December, Jacksonville has covered the point spread 5 times.

Tennessee (8-7) has lost three straight games with their 27-23 loss to the Rams at home last week. The Titans are meeting point spread expectations despite this slide as they have covered the point spread in two straight games as well as four of their last five contest. This Tennessee team needs to win this game to clinch a spot in the playoffs — but this group has been laying eggs for weeks so I do not expect them to step it up now. Their pass defense has been shredded there last two weeks by allowing 680 passing yards along with five TD passes. They surrendered 286 passing yards last week to the Rams — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. They will face a hot Blake Bortles (!) who has thrown for almost 1300 passing yards over the last four weeks while tossing nine TD passes. Tennessee has not performed well relative to point expectations at home as they are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games at home against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 28 games in the month of December, the Titans are 7-19-2 ATS. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars (311) plus the points versus Tennessee Titans (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (320) plus the points versus the Washington Redskins (319). New York (2-13) has lost five straight games after their 23-0 shutout loss in Arizona last week. Many bettors were sky-high on the Giants in that game after their very good showing the previous week in a 34-29 loss at home to the Eagles. While we had the Cardinals in that game, look for the Giants to play better this week as they look to redeem themselves from being shutout last week as a 3-point underdog. New York also looks to avenge a 20-10 loss in Washington back on November 23rd. The Giants have not defeated a divisional rival this season — so a good effort this afternoon goes a long way to get the terrible taste in their mouth from this lost season. Eli Manning will likely play every snap with the team likely to look to resign him under new general manager Dave Gettleman. New York is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a point spread win. The Giants have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games as the underdog. And while they have failed to rush for more than 75 yards in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to top 75 rushing yards in two straight games. And in their last 13 games played in Week 17 of the regular season, the Giants have covered the point spread 9 times.

Washington (7-8) has won two straight games with their 27-11 win over Denver last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. But the Skins have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. This franchise may be caught looking forward with the decision to retain head coach Jay Gruden with him and his staff being offered contract extensions. Their next decision regards what to do with QB Kirk Cousins. However, in the meantime, the Skins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against NFC East opponents. 10* NFL  Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (320) plus the points versus the Washington Redskins (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (264) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (263) in the Orange Bowl. Miami (FL) (10-2) looks to erase their two-game losing streak and end their season on a positive note after their ugly 38-3 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game back on December 2nd. The Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Miami held the Tigers to just 77 rushing yards in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last game. The Hurricanes’ defense is legit — they ranked 17th in the nation by allowing only 19.9 PPG. The offense was ravaged with injuries to three key skill position players which severely limited them in the Clemson game. But the month of bowl practices should have improved the running back and wide receiver positions for junior QB Malik Rosier. Miami is, of course, the host team of the Orange Bowl — and they are a perfect 7-0 with an average winning margin of +18.0 PPG. The Hurricanes outgain their visitors by +114.5 net YPG. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 22 home games as the underdog. Furthermore, the Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams outside the ACC.

Wisconsin (12-1) looks to bounce-back from their deflating 27-21 loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship that not only ruined their conference title hopes but also crushed any National Championship dreams that the team might have harbored. But, frankly, this has always been an overrated team that was propped up by a soft schedule. The Badgers’ non-conference slate consisted of BYU, Florida Atlantic and Utah State — none of which even represent a Power Five Conference. Wisconsin then plays in the weaker West Division of the Big Ten. So when looking at their season statistics, remember that the Badgers surrendered 449 yards of offense to the Buckeyes while managing to generate just 298 yards themselves. The final score made that game appear closer than it really was — and Wisconsin benefited from a 9-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown to stay competitive. Sophomore quarterback Alex Hornbook is way too loose with the football. He threw 15 interceptions this season which makes him playing in a true road game in the Orange Bowl against the Turnover Chain wearing Hurricanes who were second in the nation with a +1.25 net turnover margin per game a downright scary proposition. The Badgers managed only 62 rushing yards in their 32 rushing attempts against Ohio State — and that helps place them into a historical “play-against” angle that has been 73% effective since 1992. Wisconsin holds their opponents to just 92.6 rushing YPG — and favorites in the 3.5 to 10 point range who did not rush for more than 75 yards in their last game and does not allow more than 100 rushing YPG have then failed to cover the point spread in 53 of the last 73 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CFB Wisconsin-Miami (FL) Orange Bowl Special with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (264) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (261) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (262) in the Fiesta Bowl. Washington (10-2) has won two straight games with their 41-14 win over Washington State in the Apple Bowl back on November 25th. The Huskies have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while Washington allowed 369 passing yards in that game, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. This Huskies defense is outstanding led by All-Americandefensive tackle Vita Vea. Washington ranks 5th in the nation by allowing only 14.5 PPG while also limiting their opponents to just 277.4 total YPG. Defense travels — and the Huskies have outscored their five opponents when away from home by +12.8 PPG while also outgaining them by +70.2 net YPG. Washington has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 5 games in December, the Huskies have covered the point spread 4 games.  

Penn State (10-2) has won three straight games with their 66-3 blowout win at Maryland. The Nittany Lions have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 6 points in their last game. Penn State enjoyed a 24-0 halftime lead against the Terrapins — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 44 games on the road after not allowing more than a field goal in the first-half of their last game. This team will be without their offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead who left the program to take over as head coach at Mississippi State. Some observers consider Moorhead the real genius in this program under head coach James Franklin — and I am one of those individuals. I expect the offense to really miss Moorhead in this game. As it is, the Nittany Lions struggled to run the football against some top defenses: they rushed for 91 yards against Ohio State while managing just 65 rushing yards against Michigan State. Now Penn State will be facing their most difficult opponent yet in stopping the run in this Huskies team that was tops in the nation by allowing only 92.3 rushing YPG. The Nittany Lions have played two straight games Over the Total — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing at least two straight Overs. And while Penn State has only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. 25* CFB Washington-Penn State Fiesta Bowl Special with the Washington Huskies (261) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (260) minus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (259) in the Liberty Bowl. Iowa State (7-5) has lost three of their last four games with their 20-19 loss at Kansas State as a 2.5-point underdog back on November 25th. The Cyclones are a trendy pick this afternoon being an underdog against a Group of Five program despite having scored upset wins against Oklahoma and TCU this season. But this is a true road game for this Iowa State team playing on Memphis’ home field against the Tigers. The Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 road games after a loss by 7 points or less against a conference rival. Iowa State has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when on the road with the Total set at least at 63. And while the Cyclones held the Wildcats to only 264 yards of offense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game.

Memphis (10-2) looks to bounce-back from their 62-55 loss at Central Florida in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game back on December 2nd. The Tigers were 6.5-point underdogs in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Memphis has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. The Tigers are the home hosts for this Liberty Bowl where they were a perfect 7-0 this season with an average winning margin of +19.8 PPG. Memphis outgained their visitors by +89.5 net YPG. The Tigers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games at home. They certainly should be motivated to defeat a Power-Five school that defeated an Oklahoma team that will be in the College Football Playoff on Monday — so Memphis fans can get their Transitive Properties defenses boned up with a victory here. Lastly, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. 10* CFB Iowa State-Memphis Liberty Bowl Special with the Memphis Tigers (260) minus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (259). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (258) plus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (257) in the Taxslayer Bowl. Louisville (8-4) closed out their season winning three straight games in decisive fashion — culminating in a 44-17 win at Kentucky. The Cardinals averaged 46 PPG over that stretch while holding those three opponents to just 315 YPG. But the competition was not spectacular with those wins being against the Wildcats along with Virginia and Syracuse. Don’t be surprised to see this Louisville team suffer a letdown now. They are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Cardinals are also 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Additionally, while Louisville gained 562 yards against the Kentucky defense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And in their last 6 games after allowing 20 points or less in their last contest, the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread 5 times. Behind last year’s Heisman Trophy winner in QB Lamar Jackson, this team has the weapons to blow out inferior opponents. But their offensive line tends to be overwhelmed by big and powerful defensive lines from top-tier defensive programs. In their three games against Clemson, NC State and Florida State, Louisville scoring average plummeted to 25.7 PPG. The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 8 games against teams outside the ACC, Louisville is 1-6-1 ATS.

Mississippi State (8-4) is in the middle of a coaching transition with head coach Dan Mullen along with defensive coordinator Todd Grantham moving to Florida. Former Penn State offensive coordinator Joe Morehead will be taking over the Bulldogs job with special teams coach Greg Knox serving as interim head coach while calling the plays having also been the running backs coach this season. Additionally, junior QB Nick Fitzgerald is out after that gruesome leg injury he suffered in the Egg Bowl which was a 31-28 upset loss for Mississippi State despite being a 14-point favorite to Ole Miss. True freshman QB Kenton Thompson will be under center this afternoon. These circumstances are scaring off many bettors — but not me. I am thrilled that we can get up to 7 points with this tough SEC team that defeated LSU while playing a very competitive game with Alabama. The defense remains in tact for this game (as opposed to Louisville who has two star players skipping the game to avoid risking injury for the April NFL draft). The Bulldogs ranked 10th in the nation by holding their opponents to 302.0 total YPG. Thompson was solid in his debut against the Rebels as he completed 13 of 27 passes for 195 yards in relief while adding another 121 yards on 26 carries on the ground. The dual threat QB should benefit from the bowl practices where he worked with the first team offense. Mississippi State has the element of surprise in this game with two different offensive and defensive coordinators calling their first games in this one. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after playing a game at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss a home to a conference rival. Additionally, Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Lastly, the Bulldogs did rush for 294 yards against Ole Miss in their last game — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. 20* CFB Louisville-Mississippi State Taxslayer Bowl Special with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (258) plus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (257). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (255) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (256) in the Cotton Bowl. USC (11-2) has won five straight games since their bad loss at Notre Dame — culminating in their 31-28 win over Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship Game as a 3.5-point favorite. The Trojans outgained the Cardinal generated 501 yards of offense in that game while winning the yardage battle by +158 net yards. USC has then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 125 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 175 yards. USC averaged 7.45 Yards-Per-Play against Stanford — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP. This is now a healthier football team again playing behind QB Sam Darnold who is 20-3 as a starter. The Trojans had a 24 players on the injured list against the Irish. Look for USC to build off their momentum to play well in this game. The Trojans have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 53 games after wining six or seven of their last eight games — including covering the point spread six of their last eight games after winning six or seven of their last eight. USC has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after wining eight of their last ten games. And in their last 12 games played with the Total with the Total set at 63 or higher, the Trojans have covered the point spread 8 times.

Ohio State (11-2) has won four straight games culminating by winning the Big Ten Championship Game over Wisconsin by a 27-21 score. But the Buckeyes have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 7 points or less against a Big Ten rival. This Ohio State team is as talented as any team in the nation but mistakes, turnovers and mediocre play on Special Teams has held this team back all season. In there four biggest games against Oklahoma, Penn State, Michigan and then the Badgers, Ohio State won three of the games but two were by 6 points or less with the win over the Wolverines surpassing that threshold only with a late touchdown. The Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Ohio State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Big Ten. Ohio State has not allowed more than 21 points in their last four games since their season-ruining loss at Iowa — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 25 points in at least three straight games. Their win over Wisconsin fell Under the 51 point Total — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Lastly, the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. 20* CFB USC-Ohio State Cotton Bowl Special with USC Trojans (255) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (249) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (250) in the Sun Bowl. Arizona State (7-5) is another bowl team in the middle of a coaching transition with sixth-year head coach Todd Graham fired for ESPN television personality (and former NFL head coach coach over a decade ago) Herm Edwards. Graham has agreed to stay on to coach this game — and I do expect his players to play hard for their lame duck leader who recruited all of them. But this Sun Devils team looks due for a letdown anyways after they ended their season with a 42-30 upset win against their arch-rival Arizona as a 2-point underdog back on November 25th. This team pulled off four upsets this season with their win over Washington being their highest-profile victory. Arizona State has won five of their last seven games while covering the point spread in seven of their last nine games. But the Sun Devils have then failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games after winning four or five of their last six games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Those are not encouraging team trends for a program that will have new coordinators on both sides of the football for this game. As it is, Arizona State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Pac-12. The Sun Devils have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in the month of December. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral field, Arizona State has failed to cover the point spread 4 times.

NC State (8-4) enters this Bowl game having won two of their last three games with their 33-21 win over North Carolina back on November 25th. This is a good football team under head coach Dave Doeren that defeated Louisville and Florida State this season. The Wolfpack have then covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 road games coming off a bye. NC State has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a game that they played at home. Led by future first-round NFL draft pick Bradley Chubb at defensive end, the Wolfpack have a strong defense that held their opponents to just 24.8 PPG. Defense travels — and NC State outgained their six opponents away from home by +65.0 net YPG. The Wolfpack have played three straight games Under the Total — and they have then covered the point spread in 32 of their last 47 games after playing at least two straight games that finished Under the Total. Lastly, NC State is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 Bowl game appearances. 10* CFB NC State-Arizona State CBS-TV Special with the North Carolina State Wolfpack (249) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (250). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (248) minus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (247) in the Belk Bowl. Wake Forest (7-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in their regular season game which was a 31-23 upset loss to Duke as a 10.5-point favorite. The Demon Deacons have then bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Wake Forest has the geographical edge in this matchup with this Bowl being played in nearby Charlotte. This was a battle-tested team that had a 4-5 record against teams that reached a Bowl game — as compared to the 1-5 record that Texas A&M had against bowl teams this season. The Demon Deacons have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Wake Forest has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the ACC. And in their last 4 Bowl games, head coach Dave Clawson’s team has covered the point spread all 4 times.

Texas A&M (7-5) is in the middle of their coaching transition from Kevin Sumlin to Jimbo Fisher. Special Teams Coordinator Jeff Banks will be coaching the team as the interim head coach since Sumlin was terminated after the Aggies’ 45-21 loss at LSU as an 11-point underdog to close out their regular season. Look for Texas A&M to be flat as they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Aggies gave up 351 yards to the middling LSU passing attack in that game — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Texas A&M is also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Aggies have surrendered 37 PPG to their last five opponents representing a Power-Five Conference. Moving forward, the Aggies are just 16-37-1 ATS in their last 54 games against teams with a winning record which offers some insight into why Sumlin was fired. Texas A&M has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in the month of December. And in their last 11 Bowl games, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 8 times. 10* CFB Texas A&M-Wake Forest Belk Bowl Special with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (248) minus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (247). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (278) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (277) in the Holiday Bowl. Michigan State (9-3) opened this game as a small underdog — and with most of the money being bet on Sparty, they now find themselves as a small favorite in the 2-point range. But the Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games without head coach Mark Dantonio being able to play the “disrespect” card. Michigan State has won two straight games after their 40-7 win at Rutgers as a 13.5-point favorite. But the Spartans have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Michigan State forced three turnovers in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after forcing at least three turnovers in their last game. And while Sparty did not commit a turnover in that contest, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after committing no more than one turnover in their last contest. Michigan State does have a very good defense that has allowed 97 rushing yards combined in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in at least two straight games. Remember, this Spartans defense was exposed by Ohio State in a their 48-3 loss to the Buckeyes last month in a game where they allowed 524 yards of offense. The Michigan State offense scored only 23.6 PPG in their five games on the road this year — and they were outgained by -2.6 net PPG in their five games away from East Lansing. The Spartans have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against non-conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against Pac-12 opponents.

Washington State (9-3) should be very motivated to redeem themselves on this national stage from a pair of bad performances. For starters, the Cougars completely laid an egg last season in a 17-12 loss to Minnesota in this very same Holiday Bowl despite facing a severely depleted Golden Gophers team due to a slew of suspensions that the team handed out for disciplinary reasons that almost compelled them to cancel appearing at the game. We took the Gophers that night and I have had the Washington State opportunity for redemption in the back of my mind all year. The Cougars also look to get the bad taste out of their mouths from their 41-14 loss at Washington back on November 25th to close out their regular reason. Washington State has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Quarterback Luke Falk did complete 37 of 55 passes for 369 yards in that game — and the Cougars have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after they passed for at least 280 yards in their last game while also covering the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after passing for at least 325 yards in their last contest. Washington State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 16 games as the underdog, Washington State has covered the point spread in 11 of these games. 25* CFB Fox Sports 1 Game of the Year with the Washington State Cougars (278) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (277) in the Holiday Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing then TCU Horned Frogs (246) plus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (245) in the Alamo Bowl. TCU (10-3) looks to bounce-back from getting throttled in the Big 12 Championship Game at Oklahoma in their 41-17 loss as a 7-point underdog. The Horned Frogs have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Take away two losses to an Oklahoma team that is hoping to play for a National Championship and this TCU team lost to just one other team this season. They have an outstanding defense that limits their opponents to just 17.6 PPG (11th in the FBS) while holding those teams to only 328.5 total YPG (17th in the FBS). On offense, they are led by senior QB Kenny Hill who completed 67% of his passes this season. The Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 60 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. TCU has also covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And with this game being played on field turf in San Antonio which will give the Horned Frogs a geographical advantage, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on turf.

Stanford (9-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in the Pac-12 Championship Game in their 31-28 loss at USC as a 3.5-point favorite. The Cardinal has then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. This is a typical Stanford team of late on the offensive side of the football as they thrive in their rushing attack but struggle with their passing game. Running back Bryce Love should be healthier than he was in the second-half of the regular season. But the Cardinal passing attack ranked just 97th in the FBS by averaging 184.3 passing YPG. However, this is an atypical Stanford team that is not nearly as tough on defense as they usually are. The Cardinal allowed opponents to average 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry — and they ranked 71st in the FBS by allowing 170.7 rushing YPG. Overall, Stanford was 74th in total defense by giving up 398.8 total YPG. In the previous five seasons, the Cardinal held their Pac-12 opponents to average -103 YPG below their season average. This season, these conference opponents averaged just -13 net YPG below their season offensive average. Lastly, Stanford lost all four of their games away from home this season where they were outgained by -73.0 net YPG. 10* CFB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the TCU Horned Frogs (246) plus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (245) in the Alamo Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (243) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (244) in the Camping World Bowl. Virginia Tech (9-3) has won two straight games after their 10-0 shutout victory at Virginia. The Hokies have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win Virginia Tech has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing 20 points or less in their last contest. This Hokies defense is one of the best in the nation as they are holding their opponents to just 13.5 PPG which is 5th best in the FBS — and they rank 11th in the nation by holding their opponents to only 305.3 total YPG. Defense travels — and Virginia Tech was 4-2 on the road with an average winning margin of +8.9 PPG due to this defense that held those opponents to only 17.8 PPG. The Hokies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in expected higher-scoring games where the Total was set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. Virginia Tech has also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 10 point range. I am expected redshirt freshman quarterback Josh Jackson to have improved during the extra Bowl practices under their offensive guru of a head coach in Justin Fuente. The Hokies have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams outside the ACC. And in their last 11 games in the month of December, Virginia Tech has covered the point spread 8 times.

Oklahoma State (9-3) reached this Bowl game after their 58-17 win over Kansas back on November 25th as a big 40.5-point favorite. The Cowboys have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. Oklahoma State has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while the Total was set at 67 for that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing at game that finished Over the Total. Interestingly, the Cowboys played another team on their schedule known for having a good defense with strong Special Teams but a sometimes questionable offense — and that Kansas State team defeated them by a 45-40 score. I think that result serves as a harbinger for this game. Oklahoma State does not do well with their Special Teams while this Hokies team remains excellent in that area of the game two years removed from the Frank Beamer era that specialized in Special Teams play. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 games when favored in the 3.5 to 10 point range, Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games. 20* CFB Virginia Tech-Oklahoma State Camping World Special with the Virginia Tech Hokies (243) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (244). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Navy Midshipmen (242) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Virginia Cavaliers (241) in the Military Bowl. Navy (6-6) is a team that is often faded in Bowl games given the conventional wisdom that the opponent’s opportunity to practice for a few weeks against their unique spread triple option mitigates the inherent advantage the Midshipmen have from week-to-week deploying that offense. And that is some solid 2012 reasoning. However, bettors have caught up to that logic and the oddsmakers have adjusted. Bettors were also using that logic to bet against Army against a San Diego State teach coached by Rocky Long who was being described as the Yoda of defending spread triple options. The fact is that these triple option offenses are so tricky because there is a second (and third) level of adjustments that can be made once defenses begin to catch up to it. In regards to the Naval Academy, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight Bowl games which should put that Hot Take to rest for the time being. The Midshipmen host this Bowl game which gives them a significant advantage in this contests. Navy was 4-1 at home this year while outgaining their opponents by +50.4 net YPG. They are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 games on their home field. These Midshipmen should be very motivated to end their season on a high note after losing three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after losing their rivalry game against Army in heartbreaking fashion in the snow by a 14-13 score. Navy was 2.5-point favorites in that game — and they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a point spread loss. The Midshipmen have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after allowing no more than 20 points in their last game. Navy faced a very competitive schedule this season so they enter this game battle tested.

Virginia (6-6) limps into the postseason as well having lost three straight games with their 10-0 loss at home to Virginia Tech. The listless Cavaliers’ offense managed to gain only 191 yards of offense in that game. Virginia ranks 100th in the FBS by scoring just 23.8 PPG — and they also rank 100th in the FBS by averaging only 356.2 total YPG. The Cavaliers managed only 5 rushing yards in that contest — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. Virginia is also 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games after allowing 20 points or less in their last game. Defense is a concern in this game for Bronco Mendenhall’s team. The Cavaliers do a great job stopping opponent’s passing attacks as they rank 17th in the FBS by holding teams to just 179.6 passing YPG. But Virginia allows their opponents to rush for 178.3 rushing YPG which is 82nd in the FBS which is a grave concern when looking to slow down the Navy spread triple option. The Hokies ran for 202 yards against the Virginia defense — and the Cavaliers are then 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Lastly, the Cavaliers were just 2-3 on the road this season while being outgained by -5.0 net PPG. 10* CFB Virginia-Navy Military Bowl Special with the Navy Midshipmen (242) plus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (241). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (240) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (239) in the Texas Bowl. Texas (6-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in their last regular season game back on November 24th in their 27-23 loss to Texas Tech. It is pretty easy for Bowl observers to point to head coach Tom Herman’s 9-1 ATS record as an underdog in his head coaching career — and that includes overseeing six straight-up upset victories. While that helps to establish some confidence that Herman is effective at motivating his team when the odds are stacked against them, this logic has become conventional wisdom. On the other hand, a knee-jerk play-against this evolving conventional wisdom would be foolhardy as well. I do like the Longhorns to come out with a strong effort in their home state where sending good vibes is important to Herman for recruiting. Texas has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. This Longhorns team has a stout defense that ranked 30th in the FBS by holding opponents to just 21.7 PPG. In their six games away from home, Texas held their opponents to only 18.0 PPG. This defensive play has helped the Longhorns go 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. On offense, look for this unit to play well behind promising freshman quarterback Sam Ehlinger who should benefit from the extra weeks of bowl preparation. The Longhorns have three players who have defied to not play this game to protect their health for the upcoming NFL draft — but roster talent has never been the issue with this team. Texas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Big 12. And in their last 6 games played on a neutral field, the Longhorns have covered the point spread 5 times.

Missouri (7-5) enters this Bowl game on a six-game winning streak after their 48-45 win at Arkansas as a 10-point favorite. The Tigers have then failed to her the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. Missouri did gain a whopping 696 yards against the Razorbacks — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. This Tigers team feasted off bad competition where their spread offense was able to run up the score. Against the seven Bowl teams they faced this season, Mizzou scored 54 PPG. But against the five teams participating in Bowl games this season, the Tigers were winless while scoring a mere 18.5 PPG. That makes them precarious favorites tonight — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of December. 25* CFB Wednesday Bowl Special Feature with the Texas Longhorns (240) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (239) in the Texas Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (275) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (276) in the Foster Farm’s Bowl. Arizona (7-5) has lost two straight games with their 42-30 upset loss at Arizona State back on November 25th. That loss may be indicative of a book that has begun to be established against sophomore QB Khalil Tate who tore up the Pac-12 when head coach Rich Rodriguez inserted him into the starting lineup. The Wildcats won five of their last eight games with Tate as the starting QB taking over for junior Brandon Dawkins. But over his last two starts, Tate ran the ball only 22 times for 60 yards while completing 29 of his 48 passes for 291 yards which are akin to numbers he was putting up in just one game (albeit with less passing and more rushing attempts). Rodriguez eventually benched Tate to give Dawkins a chance to move the ball in their rivalry game against Arizona State. But, as always, the bigger concerns with Rodriguez-coached teams are defense and discipline. The Wildcats ranked 116th in the FBS by allowing 464.2 total YPG. They surrendered 227 yards to the Sun Devils — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. It is poor Special Teams, penalties and overall undisciplined play that makes Arizona an unreliable small favorite under Rich Rod. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Pac-12. Arizona has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games played in the month of December. Additionally, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral field. And in their last 6 Bowl game appearances, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests.

Purdue (6-6) became Bowl eligible by winning their last two games of the regular season — culminating with their 31-24 win over Indiana back on November 25th. The Boilermakers’ racked up 453 yards of offense in that victory — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The offense has played a bit better with first-year head coach Jeff Brohm settling on Elijah Sindelar as the main signal-caller. He completed 15 of 29 passes for 159 yards but threw two TD passes and no interceptions against the Hoosiers. Purdue did surrender 497 yards to the Indiana offense — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. This Boilermakers defense should play better as they ranked 16th in the nation by allowing just 19.3 PPG. Even better, when Purdue was on the road in six games this season, they surrendered only 17.8 PPG along with 347.7 total YPG. The Boilermakers outscored their opponents on the road by +2.4 PPG while outgaining them by +27.0 net YPG which makes them dangerous underdogs against this inconsistent Wildcats team. Purdue has a loaded front seven that accounted for 25 sacks while holding opponents to just 3.7 Yards-Per-Carry. This is the Boilermakers first Bowl game in five years so they will be very excited for this opportunity. Lastly, Purdue has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Big Ten — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams from the Pac-12. 10* CFB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Purdue Boilermakers (275) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (276) in the Foster Farm’s Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boston College Eagles (237) plus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (238) in the Pinstripe Bowl. Boston College (7-5) has won two straight games — as well as six of their last eight contests — with their 42-14 win at Syracuse in their last regular season game back on November 25th as a 4.5-point favorite. The Eagles are then 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Boston College is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing no more than 20 points in their last game. This became a changed football team when freshman A.J. Dillon entered the starting lineup. Dillon de-committed from Michigan to enroll at BC with the promise of a better immediate opportunity for playing time — and he proved why by rushing for 1432 yards with a 5.3 Yards-Per-Carry average along with 13 TDs. Dillon ran the ball 23 times for 193 yards en route to the Eagles putting up 333 yards in that win over the Orangemen. Boston College has then a decisive 40-19-2 in their last 61 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. An effective ground game makes the Eagles dangerous because of their typically strong play on defense. This season, BC ranks 35th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 22.5 PPG. Defense and a strong ground game travels — and the Eagles were 5-1 this season with an average winning margin of +10.1 PPG. Boston College is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on a neutral field. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, the Eagles are 4-0-1 ATS.

Iowa (7-5) snapped their two-game losing streak in their last regular season game with a 56-14 win at Nebraska as a 4.5-point favorite. The Hawkeyes have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points. Furthermore, Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. This Hawkeyes team peaked this season when they scored 55 points while tallying a remarkable 487 yards of offense against a shellshocked Ohio State team that was turning the ball over left and right. But against the five other Big Ten teams that played in Bowl games, Iowa scored only 13.6 PPG while averaging a mere 228.0 total YPG. Additionally, Iowa was outgained by -28.8 net YPG in their five games on the road. The Hawkeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 Bowl games. And in their last 4 games played on a neutral field, Iowa is just 0-3-1 ATS. 10* CFB Boston College-Iowa Pinstripe Bowl Special with the Boston College Eagles (237) plus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (238). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (235) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (236) in the Independence Bowl. Florida State (6-6) enters this game winning and covering the point spread in three straight games to become Bowl eligible. Their last game was a 42-10 win over UL-Monroe back on December 2nd as a 26-point favorite. The Seminoles generated 504 yards of offense in that game — but they are then 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 games after gaining at least 405 yards in their last game. And while they did not force a turnover against the Ragin’ Cajun defense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last game. This is a team in transition with Odell Haggins serving as the interim coach before Willie Taggart takes over for the departed Dabo Swinney who took the money to go to Texas A&M. While Florida State was snake-bit by injuries this season which was made worse by a difficult schedule, they remain a precarious big favorite laying more than two touchdowns. This team scored only 17.3 PPG while averaging 267.2 total YPG when away from home this season. The Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing on a neutral field. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record, Florida State is just 0-4-2 ATS.

Southern Miss (8-4) has won three straight games after their 28-27 upset win at Marshall as a 2-point underdog. The Golden Eagles should build off that momentum with confidence they can pull off a high-profile upset this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Southern Miss has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The Golden Eagles outrushed the Thundering Herd in that game by a 201 to 74 yard margin — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after outrushing their last opponent by at least 125 yards. There is no question that Southern Miss faced the weaker schedule this season. But they will have the geographical and crowd advantage in this game with it being played in Shreveport. They also have been consistent when playing away from home as they are 5-1 on the road while outgaining their opponents by +87.2 net YPG. Defense travels — and the Golden Eagles rankled 17th in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 321.9 total YPG. Lastly, Southern Miss has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against non-conference opponents. 10* CFB Southern Mississippi-Florida State Independence Bowl Special with the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (235) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (236) in the Independence Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (234) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (233) in the Cactus Bowl. Kansas State (7-5) enters this Bowl game having won two straight games as well as four of their last five with their 20-19 win over Iowa State. But the Wildcats are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. And Kansas State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a victory over a Big 12 rival by 7 points or less. Moving forward, lets just say that I like betting on Bill Snyder’s teams when they are underdogs but become wary of them when they are laying the points. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games as the favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points. Kansas State has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when playing on a neutral field as the favorite. I know that they are facing a UCLA team that is a hot mess — but these Wildcats are no beacons of serene stability themselves. They are down to their third-string quarterback in freshman Skylar Thompson. Their seven wins this season could be considered an overachievement when considering that were outgained by their opponents by -63.7 net YPG. This Kansas State team ranked surprisingly low at 97th in the FBS by allowing 432.0 total YPG due to a porous pass defense that allowed a whopping 310.3 passing YPG which was 128th in the nation. These Wildcats also were outgained by -99.0 net YPG when playing away from home. Furthermore, Kansas State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing on a neutral field. Snyder is a great coach — but I do think the extra preparation time in Bowl games helps to level the playing field since opposing coaches get extra time to find some angles that Snyder seems to discover on a week-to-week advantage to help his team continually overachieve. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in Bowl games.

UCLA (6-6) is in a state of transition with Chip Kelly taking over the program after Jim Mora was fired after the team’s loss to USC. Quarterback Jay Rosen will not play in this game because of a concussion leaving it to freshman QB Devon Modster to run the offense. Modster stepped in for Rosen in the second half of their last game against Cal when Rosen was knocked out of that game with this head injury and he completed 14 of 18 passes for 191 yards to lead the Bruins to a 30-27 win over the Golden Bears. This UCLA team is a train wreck on defense — despite having talent. And this group was winless in their six road games. But I like the situation for these proverbial misfit toys with zero expectations on them. Interim head coach Jedd Fisch oversaw the victory over Cal and has plenty of incentive to show something here as it could set him up for head coaching college jobs. Fisch comes from the Jim Harbaugh coaching tree and left the Wolverines as their co-offensive coordinator to work with Rosen. Worst case scenario for Fisch is another offensive coordinator gig with a good Power Five Conference team. I also think he has helped make Modster better during Bowl practices with the freshman now getting all the coaching attention while working with the first team offense. Modster has shown that he can fulfill on his vast promise coming out of high school as he has completed 66.7% of his 45 passes this season while averaging a strong 8.4 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Bruins have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games as an underdog on a neutral field. Lastly, while UCLA does allow 36.8 PPG, these teams should not be dismissed too quickly. The Bruins win over Cal fell below the 66 point Total — and underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 point range who allow at least 35.0 PPG but come off a game that finished Under the Total have then covered the point spread in 75 of the last 117 situations where these conditions applied. 10* CFB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the UCLA Bruins (234) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (233) in the Cactus Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (231) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (232) in the Quick Lane Bowl. Northern Illinois (8-4) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in their last regular season in a 31-24 upset loss at Central Michigan as a 2.5-point favorite. That was a disappointing result for the Huskies (and us) as they went into a halftime with a comfortable 17-0 lead before being overwhelmed by the Chippewas in the final 30 minutes. Northern Illinois be anxious to redeem themselves from that loss. Head coach Rod Carey has also certainly reminded him team of the team’s humiliating performance in the 2015 Poinsettia Bowl where they lost to Boise State by a 55-7 score while being outgained by an incredible 654-33 margin. Injuries played a role in that results — and I do not think that performance offers any evidence as to how the Huskies can perform against a Power Five Conference representative. This team defeated Nebraska this season while losing by just 3 points to a feisty Boston College team this season. Northern Illinois has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a loss by a touchdown or less against a conference rival. The Huskies have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after an upset loss to a conference rival. Additionally, Northern Illinois has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 road games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game — and this includes covering the point spread in six of their last seven games with that situation. And while the Huskies have only covered the point spread once in their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. Northern Illinois may have finally found the heir to quarterback Jordan Lynch that led the program to great heights climaxing in an Orange Bowl appearance five years ago. Redshirt freshman QB Marcus Childers has the passing and running mix that Carey likes to see from his quarterback to make this spread offense hum. The Huskies also have a great defense that built off the momentum they established in their final five games of the 2016 season. Northern Illinois allowed just 20.8 PPG (27th in the FBS) while ranking 18th in the nation by limiting opponents to only 328.0 total YPG based on a stout run defense that is 11th in the nation by limiting their opponents to only 112.3 rushing YPG. This helps the Huskies to be dangerous underdogs. They have covered the point spread in a decisive 54 of their last 89 games including three of their last four and eight of their last thirteen games when getting the points. Northern Illinois has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Mid-American Conference. 

Duke (6-6) followed up a 43-20 upset victory over Georgia Tech as a 6.5-point underdog by then upsetting Wake Forest in Winston Salem on November 25th as a 10.5-point underdog to become bowl eligible for head coach David Cutcliffe. The Blue Devils tend to be a dangerous underdog themselves under Cutcliffe as they pulled off four upsets this season. But perhaps Cutcliffe needs to road trip to the Alabama locker room sometime to listen to how Nick Saban motivates his team as perpetual favorites as this Duke team suffered three upset losses as the favorite also this season. Needless to say, I am not comfortable in the Blue Devils laying points. Duke has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset victory as an underdog — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in three straight games after pulling an upset on the road. The Blue Devils had lost six straight games in a stretch where they scored just 12.0 PPG before pulling off these last two upsets. Duke scores only 19.6 PPG away from home while generating a mere 304.4 total YPG. They were outscored by -3.0 net PPG on the road while being outgained by -31.2 net YPG. The Huskies, on the other hand, outscored their six road opponents by +2.1 net YPG while also winning the yardage battle. Duke’s win over the Demon Deacons fell below the 59 point total — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Lastly, the Blue Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing their last two games against ACC rivals. 25* CFB Tuesday Bowl Special Feature with the Northern Illinois Huskies (231) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (232) in the Quick Lane Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (230) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (229) in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. West Virginia (7-5) limped into their bowl game losing two straight games with their 59-31 loss at Oklahoma back on November 25th. The Mountaineers have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games under head coach Dana Holgorsen. But this West Virginia team is undermanned entering this bowl game. Quarterback Will Grier has announced he is returning to the school to use his final year of eligibility — but the finger injury that kept him out of the last two games will keep him from taking the field this afternoon. Sophomore Chris Chugunov will be the starting QB this afternoon. While he has completed just 54% of his passes, he has the luxury of an outstanding group of wide receivers and he should have gotten better with the benefit of bowl practices. Running back Justin Crawford is also bypassing this game to protect his precious draft stock — but, frankly, that is not as big a deal as advertised. Sophomore running back Kennedy McKoy rushed the ball 25 times for 137 yards against the Sooners while leading the Mountaineers to 250 rushing yards against Oklahoma. The Mountaineers have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The Holgorson offense that ranked 14th in the nation in total offense should find a rhythm this afternoon because the head coach always seems to get his offense going. Defense is another issue. West Virginia allowed 646 yards to the Sooners including 313 yards on the ground — but they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after allowing at least 275 yards in their last game. The Mountaineers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 50 points in their last game. The Holgorson offensive attack does travel — they averaged 517.8 total YPG when playing on the road which helped them outgain their opponents by +32.1 net YPG. West Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games.

Utah (6-6) snapped their two-game losing streak in their final game in the regular season with their 34-13 win over Colorado. The big statistic that every pundit paying attention to Bowl games will surely be pointing out is that Utes’ head coach Kyle Whittingham has coached his team to a near perfect 10-1 record in Bowl games. While I am not going to invest the time to verify actually how many of those games were situations where Whittingham’s team was being asked to laying close to a touchdown. I fully expect this Utes team to be prepared (as I consider the “motivational” angles for Bowl games to wildly overrated). That said, this Utes team may not be able to stop themselves from suffering a letdown after their nice statement win that they needed to become Bowl eligible. Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win over a conference rival. The Utes have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after a win by at least three touchdowns against a conference rival. The team hopes to get sophomore QB Tyler Huntley back after he missed some starts. This always looked to be a down year for this Utah team that lost eight players to the NFL draft from last year’s team that finished 10-3. This young team was not nearly as good away from Salt Lake City this year where they were 2-3 while being outscored by -2.6 net PPG along with being outgained by -21.0 net YPG. Expect a close game where taking the points with the underdog should be worthwhile. 10* CFB Utah-West Virginia Heart of Dallas Bowl Special with the West Virginia Mountaineers (230) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (229). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (132) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (131). Philadelphia (12-2) returns home after playing their last three games on the road that culminated in a 34-29 win in New York over the Giants last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. The Eagles have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up victory. Philadelphia has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Nick Foles seems capable of leading this team deep into the playoffs even after the injury to Carson Wentz. Foles completed 24 of 38 passes for 237 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in the win over the Giants. The Eagles did surrender 504 yards to the Giants last week - but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 8 games played on Monday Night Football, Philadelphia has covered the point spread 6 times.

Oakland (6-8) has lost two straight games with their 20-17 loss to Dallas last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. The Raiders are without left tackle Donald Penn for the rest of the season which will further derail a struggling offense that is scoring only 17.0 PPG away from home this season. Oakland is just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. The Raiders are also 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, this Oakland team is just 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 games in the month of December. 10* NFL Christmas Night Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia Eagles (132) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (130) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (129). Pittsburgh (11-3) has spent the week not only recovering from their loss to the Patriots and all that it means in terms of home-field advantage in the AFC Playoffs but they are also dealing with the fallout of Ben Roethlisberger throwing an interception on the goal line that could have won (and covered the point spread) in that game. We are on a nice run right now — but things have been helped by seeing close games like that turn our way as we had a big play on the Patriots. Critics who think Roethlisberger should have just spiked the ball should have their Pundit Cards revoked permanently. Ask any New England bettor — or any Patriots player or coach — and they will tell you that they were praying for that game to go into overtime. The opportunity to win that game on one play — on the darn goal line — must be seized. Yes, bad things can happen when one takes risks — and we will always remember that play or the Russell Wilson interception in the Super Bowl. But the fact remains that even a high-risk pass into the middle of the field rarely results in an interception. Sure, in hindsight, Big Ben should not have thrown into double-coverage. But it is also a fact that these same pundits (along with the entire Football Analytics community) would be applauding Roethlisberger for pulling a Dan Marino fake-spike touchdown pass (just like they always call for on Twitter!) if the play would have worked. Rant aside, I think the Steelers’ suffered what we call a Deflating Loss that will negatively impact them now on the road as a big favorite. As it is, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games as a favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. They are also a mere 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Roethlisberger did have a good game against the Pats by completing 22 of 30 passes for 281 yards — but the Steelers have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games passing for at least 250 passing yards. Big Ben not having his superstar wide receiver Antonio Brown certainly does not help matters. Brown has simply been spectacular this year. Pittsburgh surrendered 283 passing yards to the Patriots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of December. Pittsburgh has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents. And in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record, the Steelers are just 1-3-1 ATS.

Houston (4-10) looks to bounce-back from a humiliating 45-7 loss at Jacksonville last week. The Texans could do almost nothing on offense as they managed only 186 yards against the stout Jaguars defense. But look for head coach Bill O’Brien to get his offense working better back at home. O’Brien seems to always be ravaged with injuries — and he is dealing with his third-string QB in T.J. Yates. But there is a reason that Houston is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. The Texans are also 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And while they have not scored more than 16 points in four straight games, O’Brien’s team has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after failing to score more than 17 points in at least two straight games. Defense has been a problem for this Houston team as well with injuries playing a big role — they are allowing 408.0 total YPG over their last three games. But Houston has covered the point spread in a decisive 19 of the last 24 games after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. 10* NFL Pittsburgh-Houston NBC-TV Special with the Houston Texans (130) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (129). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (228) plus the point(s) versus the Houston Cougars (227) in the Hawai’i Bowl. Fresno State (9-4) looks to bounce-back from their 17-14 loss in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game at Boise State which was an immediate rematch from the game those two teams played the previous week in Fresno. The Bulldogs have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. Fresno State did cover the 10-point spread as the underdog in that last game — and they are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last contest. And in their last 10 games after allowing at least 20 points in their last contest, Fresno State has covered the point spread in 9 of those games. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 5 games against teams outside the MWC, Fresno State has covered the point spread in 4 of these contests.

Houston (7-4) has won three of their last four games with their 24-14 win over Navy back on November 24th as a 6.5-point favorite. The Cougars have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. Trying to base Bowl game predictions based primarily on guessing the motivation of both teams has always been Fool’s Gold to me — but, that said, a trip to Hawai’i for this Houston team that did not meet their high expectations this season. The Cougars returned fifteen starters for first-year head coach Major Applewhite from last year’s team that finished 9-4 which included upset wins over Oklahoma and Louisville. But this team was upset four times this season to spoil their dreams of winning the American Athletic Conference and perhaps earn the Group of Five conference bowl bid in the New Year’s Six Bowl Games. Instead, a trip to Hawai’i to face another non-power conference opponent. The Cougars score only 20.2 PPG when playing away from home this season — and that is -8.2 PPG below their season average. Lastly, Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games when playing on field turf. 25* CFB Hawai’i Bowl A-List Special with the Fresno State Bulldogs (228) plus the point(s) versus the Houston Cougars (227). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (126) minus the points versus the New York Giants (125). Arizona (6-8) has lost four of their last six games after their 20-15 loss at Washington last week as a 4-point underdog. The Cardinals have bounced-back to win 27 of their last 40 games at home after a loss by 6 points or less. Arizona has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread setback. The team is turning back to QB Drew Stanton who is one of the better backups in the league. While the team has dealt with Blaine Gabbert under center, the Cardinals defense has been playing quite well. Since Week 10 of the regular season, Arizona is tops in NFL by allowing just 264.7 total YPG. During that span, the Cardinals are allowing just 183.7 passing YPG which is also best in the league — and they are third in the NFL by giving up only 81.0 rushing YPG.

New York (2-12) enters this game coming off their 34-29 win loss to the Eagles despite generating their highest scoring and yardage totals on offense since 2015. We had the Giants in that game as 7.5-point underdogs — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. New York has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. And while they gained 504 yards against the Eagles, the Giants have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 305 yards in their last game. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 6 games against fellow NFC opponents, the Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games. 10* NFL Giants-Cardinals Special with the Arizona Cardinals (126) minus the points versus the New York Giants (125). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (127) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (128). Seattle (8-6) might have experienced their most humiliating loss in the Pete Carroll era last week in their 42-7 loss to the Rams. The season began with locker room angst between the defensive and offensive units and while those issues appeared to have been put aside during the season, injuries have decimated their roster. Now that they are out of the playoff hunt, this Seahawks team is playing for pride. But I do expect that to be enough motivation for this team as they look to make amends to each other for last week’s terrible effort. Seattle is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. And while they have played two straight games Over the Total, they have then covered  the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after playing two straight games Over the Total. The team is getting back a healthier Bobby Wagner on defense who did practice this week after trying to take the field last Sunday. His presence on defense will be a big help. The Seahawks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. And in their last 29 games in the month of December, Seattle is 20-8-1 ATS.

Dallas (8-6) has won three games in a row with their 21-17 win in Oakland against the Raiders as a 3-point favorite. The Cowboys now get Ezekiel Elliott back after he completed his six-game suspension — and it looks like Dallas plans on giving him a ton of touches this afternoon. But the straw that stirs the drink is their left tackle Tyron Smith who is listed as questionable with the knee injury that has been slowing him down for the second-half of the regular season. Even if Elliott has been keeping in shape by running the beaches of the tropical locale from which he spent most of his suspension time, he might not have the endurance yet to be at 100% as he normally would be at midseason. As it is, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. The Cowboys have not enjoyed much of a home field advantage either in AT&T Stadium where they are just 3-4 this season while being outgained by -18.0 net YPG and being outscored by -1.1 PPG. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread 5 times. 25* NFC Underdog of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (127) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (227) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (228) in the Hawai’i Bowl. Houston (7-4) travels to Hawai’i after their 24-14 win over Navy as a 6.5-point favorite back on November 24th. The Cougars have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing no more than 20 points in their last game. The Cougars sport a strong defense that ranked 40th in the FBS by allowing just 23.0 PPG. They ave played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And Houston has played 5 straight games Under the Total against non-conference opponents.

Fresno State (9-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game in a 17-14 loss at Boise State as a 10-point underdog. The Bulldogs have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Fresno State has also played 7 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. Additionally, the Bulldogs have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 games in the month of December, the Under is 5-0-1. This Fresno State team also has a very good defense as they are holding their opponents to just 17.2 PPG along with 319.0 total YPG which is 9th and 16th best in the FBS respectively. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* CFB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (227) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (228). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (110) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (109). Los Angeles (10-4) was dominant last week in their triumphant 42-7 win in Seattle over the Seahawks last week that avenged an earlier loss to their NFC West rivals. But I look for a letdown for this team as they travel east for this non-conference clash in a game where their body clocks will feel like it is 11 AM at kickoff. I also think this is a challenging test for the Rams to face this Titans team whose formula for success is winning the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football by outmuscling their opponents. Furthermore, Tennessee endured a tough injury this week when placekicker Greg Zuerlein was placed on Injured Reserve with a back injury. Zeurlein played an important role in the Rams having one of the top two Special Teams units in the NFL — and they will be experiencing a big drop-off when going to the inexperienced Sam Thickett whose best experience is kicking in college for Penn State. As it is, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. The Rams held the Seahawks to just 149 yards of offense — but they are then 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games are allowing no more than 250 yards in their last game. Furthermore, while LA gained 352 yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And in their last 7 games in the month of December, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

Tennessee (8-6) looks to bounce-back from their 25-23 loss at San Francisco last week as a 2.5-point underdog. The Titans have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Now after playing two straight games on the road — as well as four of their last five away from home — Tennessee returns home where they are 5-1 this season. The offense improves greatly at home where the Titans average 26.0 PPG while averaging 376.7 total YPG. They also crank up their ground game as they average 151 rushing YPG along with 5.3 Yards-Per-Carry — and they will be facing a Titans’ team that allows opposing running backs to average 4.9 YPC when they are on the road. Tennessee is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games on their home field. Together, these team trends produce our specific 43-15-2 ATS combined angle for this situation. 25* NFL Sunday Afternoon Special Feature with the Tennessee Titans (110) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (116) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (115). New Orleans (10-4) will be looking to avenge a 20-17 loss in Atlanta back on December 7th in this game. The Saints rebounded from that loss last Sunday with their 31-19 win over the Jets as a big 17.5-point favorite. New Orleans have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. The Saints generated 412 yards of offense in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now New Orleans gets the Falcons back at home in the Superdome where they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. In his last four games at home against Atlanta, Drew Brees has thrown for 1358 passing yards along with seven TD passes — so don’t be surprised if the veteran QB has a big day this afternoon. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow NFC South opponents.

Atlanta (9-5) has won five of their last six games with their 24-21 win in Tampa Bay. The Falcons secondary showed vulnerabilities in that game by allowing the Buccaneers to pass for 289 yards in that contest — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Atlanta also limited Tampa Bay to only 84 rushing yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing no more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Moving forward, the biggest difference between this year’s Falcons and the one that made the run to the Super Bowl might very well be dropped passes. Led by Julio Jones’ seven drops, Atlanta leads the NFL in dropped passes. Last year, the Falcons led the NFL with only sixteen dropped passed combined amongst their wide receivers, tight ends and running backs. Perhaps the Regression Gods return to this team was inevitable when considering that they led the NFL the prior year with 32 drops. Those drops are most likely cost the team first downs. Lastly, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. 25* NFC South Game of the Year is on the New Orleans Saints (116) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (115). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (104) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (103). Green Bay (7-7) were eliminated from the playoffs last week after their 34-21 loss in Carolina. Now with Aaron Rodgers placed on Injured Reserve with this being a lost season, it would be easy to dismiss the Packers in this contest. But this proud Green Bay franchise has the opportunity to play spoiler against their rivals in the Vikings while avenging a 23-10 loss in Minnesota on October 15th. And this will be the final home game at Lambeau Field this year. The Packers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in the month of December. Green Bay has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 opportunities to avenge a loss to their opponents. And while the Packers have played their last two games on the road, they return home where they have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 62 games after playing their last two on the road. QB Brent Hundley has played significantly better before giving way to Rodgers return from Injured Reserve last week. Green Bay was 2-1 over Hundley’s last three starts with two of those games being on the road. The lone loss was a narrow 31-28 loss in Pittsburgh over the Steelers. In his last three starts, Hundley completed 65 of 94 passes for an impressive 69.1% completion percentage while tossing 6 touchdown passes to just one interception. He passed for 594 yards in those three games with a solid and improving 6.32 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt average. Huntley also added 103 rushing yards over those last three games on 15 carries. He has helped the Packers play their last four games Over the Total — and they have then covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games after playing at least three straight games Over the Total. Green Bay allowed 387 yards last week in Carolina — and they have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 57 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest.

Minnesota (11-3) has won nine of their last ten games with their 34-7 win over Cincinnati last week. While this team is playing very well with Case Keenum ranked as the top statistical passer in the NFL since Week 10, asking them to cover the point spread of more than a touchdown on the road is simply too much to ask. The Vikings defense has been a bit more penetrable when on the road where they are allowing 21.7 PPG along with 312.6 total YPG as compared to their 17.3 PPG and 283.9 total YPG for the season. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 44 of their last 71 games on the road as the favorite. The Vikings have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. Furthermore, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of the last 10 games when playing on grass. Lastly, the Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 trips to Green Bay to play the Packers at Lambeau Field. 25* NFC North Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (104) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Appalachian State Mountaineers (225) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (226) in the Dollar General Bowl. Toledo (11-2) has the opportunity to avenge a loss to this Mountaineers team in last year’s Camellia Bowl where they lost by a 31-28 score — but they were small 1-point underdogs in that game. It is too much to ask this team to avenge that loss by around a touchdown that they are being asked to lay in this game. The Rockets won the Mid-American Conference Championship with their 45-28 win over Akron as a 20.5-point favorite back on December 2nd. Toledo has been cranking on offense as they enter this game as they have scored at least 37 points in three straight games while averaging at least 6.79 Yards-Per-Play in each of those games. But the Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after averaging at least 6.25 Yards-Per-Play in three straight games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 31 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after scoring at least 37 points in three straight contests. Additionally, Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the MAC. And in their last 6 games in the month of December, the Rockets are just 1-4-1 ATS.

Appalachian State (8-4) has won three straight games with their 63-14 win over UL-Lafayette as a 14-point favorite. Look for the Mountaineers to build off their momentum in this Bowl game as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Appalachian State has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Mountaineers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. This Appalachian State team tied for first-place in the Sun Belt Conference but perhaps did not meet their high expectations when entering the season with fourteen starters back from their 10-3 team that upset Toledo in their meeting in the Camellia Bowl last year. But this will also be a host of senior’s last game including quarterback Taylor Lamb — so pulling an upset in this game would help make up for their two (net) upset losses this season. Lastly, the Mountaineers have coved the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. 20* CFB Appalachian State-Toledo Dollar General Bowl Special with the Appalachian State Mountaineers (225) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (226). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (101) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (102). Baltimore (8-6) has won four of their last five games after their 27-10 win in Cleveland last Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite. Now after covering the point spread in their last three games while playing their last two games on the road, the Ravens return home. It may be difficult for this Baltimore team to not be flat in this contest when considering that they are laying nearly two touchdowns. As it is, the Ravens are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Baltimore is also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Additionally, Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. And in their last 6 games after playing their last two contests on the road, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games.

Indianapolis (3-11) has lost five straight games after their 25-13 loss to Denver as a 3-point underdog back on December 14th. Look for the Colts to play well with some extra days to prepare as they look to redeem themselves from that bad loss on national television. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, while Indy failed to generate more 228 yards against the Denver defense, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last contest. And in their last 29 games as a double-digit underdog, the Colts have covered the point spread in 18 of these contests. Hold your nose if you need to — but the sharp play here is to take all the points. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Baltimore NFL Network Special with the Indianapolis Colts (101) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (223) plus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (224). The Hot Take that many pundits are observing for this game has been the great success head coach Rocky Long has enjoyed when his defenses face spread triple option offenses. The numbers are impressive: Long’s teams are 11-1 straight-up against the twelve triple option offenses he has coached against with his team covering the point spread eight times. In the Aztecs’ 2014 Bowl game when they played Navy, they held the Midshipmen to a season-low 271 yards of offense. However, the problem with these numbers is that the oddsmakers have incorporated these facts into their number — it is one of the reasons why San Diego State (10-2) is a favorite in the touchdown range for this game. But the Aztecs do not tend to meet expectations when laying more than a field goal but not more than 10 points — they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points. San Diego State ended the season on fire by winning four straight games with their 35-10 win over New Mexico back on November 24th. But with a long 28 days off between contests, this Aztecs team may be flat in this game in an uninspiring contest against the Black Knights and an offense they have already faced twice this season. San Diego State has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in at least four of their last five games. The Aztecs have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. Additionally, while San Diego State has scored at least 35 points in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 31 points in their last two contests. They averaged at least 6.96 Yards-Per-Play in those last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP in two straight games while failing to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP in three straight games. This San Diego State team also won all three of their games decided by one scoring possession — so their final record could have easily been less impressive if a break or two does not go there way.

Army (9-3) has experienced a dream season after defeating Navy for the second-straight season back on December 9th by a 14-13 score. They should have benefit in playing this game with only two weeks off between that triumph. Some pundits have questioned the team’s motivation for this game while others have concerns about the short turnaround during semester exams. Dude, it’s Army. These guys thrive on discipline and compartmentalizing their varying responsibilities. And after winning the Commander-in-Chief Trophy, this team has the opportunity to close out their season as one of the most gloried in the program’s history to achieve a ten-win season with a victory in their bowl game. Fourth-year head coach Jeff Monken will have his team prepared and excited to win this game — just like he did last season when they defeated North Texas in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. With this game being played in Fort Worth, the Black Knights will enjoy a crowd advantage. They enter this game having won seven of their last eight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Army has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a game where neither team scored more than 17 points. Additionally, one of the intangibles that should help the Black Knights stay in this game is that they protect the football. Army has only committed five turnovers in their last eight contests — and they have not committed more than one turnover in any of those last eight games. The Black Knights have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not committing more than one turnover in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not committing more than one turnover in four straight games. Lastly, and to bring this Report full-circle, the qualities of this Army team has helped them cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Army-San Diego State Armed Forces Bowl Special with the Army Black Knights (223) plus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (224). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the South Florida Bulls (222) minus the points versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders (221) in the Birmingham Bowl. Texas Tech (6-6) closed out their regular season by erasing a four-game slide by winning two of their last three games which was culminated in a 27-23 upset victory at Texas as a 7.5-point underdog back on November 24th. The Red Raiders have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog of at least 6 points. This Texas Tech can score points — but they continue to struggle on defense as they ranked 94th in the nation by allowing 31.8 PPG and they finished 98th in the FBS by giving up 434.0 total YPG. This porous defense has contributed to them failing to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. With South Florida falling this morning to a favorite of less than a field goal in most spots, lets take the Bulls. The Red Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field as an underdog getting no more than 7 points. And this Texas Tech team has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 appearances in a Bowl game.

10* CFB play on South Florida minus the points versu Texas Tech. Best of luck or us  -- Frank.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (220) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (219) in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Wyoming (7-5) is led by a quarterback who will be drafted high in next April’s NFL Draft in junior Jake Allen. But Allen lost almost all his skill players from the previous season and led an offense that mostly sputtered this season as they scored only 22.3 PPG. Allen’s status for this game was questionable with a shoulder injury that kept him out of the last two games of the regular season — but he will take the field to start in this showcase opportunity for himself before he likely declares himself eligible for the draft. I do think the offense should be improved with the extra weeks of bowl practice. But while the offense behind Allen has been a challenge this season, that dynamic obscured the fact that the Cowboys defense has been quite good this season. Eight starters returned for first-year defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton who oversaw a unit that ranked 12th in the FBS by holding opponents to just 17.8 PPG while also ranking 22nd in the nation by limiting opponents to only 332.8 total YPG. Wyoming should also have the Special Teams edge in this game against the Chippewas. The Cowboys will be looking to bounce-back after losing their last two games of the season without Allen. They take the field again for the first time since their 20-17 loss at San Jose State as an 18-point favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. This team has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games after an upset loss as a road favorite. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games when playing with at least two weeks to prepare under head coach Craig Bohl. Wyoming has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after the first month of the season. In their last 11 games against teams with a winning record, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 8 of these contests. And in their last 5 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, Wyoming has covered the point spread 4 times. Additionally, the Cowboys will enjoy both a geographical edge as well as an environment edge as they are already quite familiar with playing in the high altitude conditions that will be the case in Boise for this Bowl game.

Central Michigan (8-4) closed out the regular season with five straight victories with their 31-24 upset victory over Northern Illinois as a 2.5-point underdog. The Chippewas pulled off five upsets this season while winning all four of their games decided by one scoring possession. The team is led on offense by quarterback Shane Morris who was a graduate transfer from Michigan. Some pundits have queried about how good the Wolverines would have been if Morris would have stayed in Ann Arbor after he threw 26 touchdown passes this season. Those observers fail to realize that the southpaw was low on Jim Harbaugh’s depth chart for a reason. Putting up solid numbers against MAC competition when given the opportunity to pass the ball at least 35 times is not uncommon. But Morris’ 55% completion rate this season as well as his 13 interceptions (a big no-no for Harbaugh) that he put up this season are big reasons for concern when facing a quality defense. Central Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games outside the MAC. And while the Chippewas have played five straight Overs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing at least five straight games that finished Over the Total. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Game of the Year with the Wyoming Cowboys (220) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (219). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Ohio Bobcats (218) minus the points versus the UAB Blazers (217) in the Bahamas Bowl. Ohio (8-4) enters this game looking to get the bad taste out of their mouth of two straight upset losses in Mid-American Conference play that ruined their opportunity to play in the MAC Championship Game. The Bobcats were riding high after they upset Toledo by a 38-10 score despite being a 3-point underdog. But Ohio fell flat the next week in a 37-34 loss at Akron despite being a 15.5-point favorite which put the Zips in the drivers seat to win the MAC East Division. The Bobcats then followed that up with a 31-24 upset loss at Buffalo in what was essentially a meaningless game. This one of the better football teams that head coach Frank Solich has had at Ohio in his 13 seasons with the program. Solich’s teams are usually solid on defense but what makes this team different is how dynamic they are on offense. The Bobcats found their answer at quarterback in Week 2 of the season with junior college transfer Nathan Rourke. The dual threat sophomore passed for over 2000 yards with a 15:7 touchdown-to-interception ration while adding another 877 rushing yards and 21 TDs on the ground. He led an offense that ranked 14th in the FBS by averaging 38.9 PPG while generating 430.9 total YPG which was 39th in the nation. Look for Ohio to come out with an inspired effort as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. Turnovers has hurt this team as of late as they have lost the turnover battle in their last three games while suffering a -2 net turnover margin in their last two losses. But the Bobcats have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after losing the turnover battle in at least three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. Additionally, Ohio has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 games played in the month of December, the Bobcats have covered the point spread in 6 of these contests. Furthermore, Ohio has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games outside MAC play. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field. And while some may cite Solich’s 4-9 bowl record overall, he has led his Bobcats teams to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 Bowl game opportunities.

UAB (8-4) enters this bowl game coming off a 28-7 win over UTEP back on November 25th. The Blazers held the Miners to just 107 passing yards in that game — but they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing no more than 170 passing yards in their last game. UAB has also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games away from home after a win over a conference rival. The Blazers have been one of the biggest surprises in College Football this season with head coach Bill Clark doing an outstanding job with this program that disbanded after the 2014-15 season. Many pundits thought that UAB should have transitioned into the FCS rather than dive into FBS competition — but Clark and his team decided intrude to pull off five upsets (three net upsets on the season) to reach eight wins and earn the right to compete in this bowl game. But this is also a football team that benefited from a very soft schedule that ranked 179th in the nation in the Sagarin rankings as compared to Ohio ranking 114th by those formulas. The Blazers will likely be dominated on both lines of scrimmage in this game. And the trip to the Bahamas may provide a distraction for this team that has already far exceeded preseason expectations. Lastly, UAB has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games played on grass. 10* CFB Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Ohio Bobcats (218) minus the points versus the UAB Blazers (217). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (215) minus the points versus the Florida International Golden Panthers (216). Temple (6-6) closed out their season winning three of their last four games with their 43-22 win at Tulsa as a 4.5-point favorite. The Owls should build off their momentum closing out the regular season as they have covered the pint spread in 7 of their last 9 games are a win by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread victory. The offense has raised its level of play over their last five games when first-year head coach Geoff Collins inserted QB Frankie Nutile into the starting lineup. The junior completed 20 of 28 passes for 262 yards and three touchdown passes. Futile is completing 61% of his passes while possessing an 11 to 7 touchdown-to-interception ration while leading his team to score 31.8 PPG in his five starts. In their last three wins, the Owls have combined to score 112 combined points. Temple generated 451 yards of offense against Tulsa — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. The Owls have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. This should be a motivated group of players with 20 seniors and 24 juniors on the opening roster who will be looking to deliver a victory in a bowl game after experiencing upset losses in the last two seasons in their bowl game. Temple has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. The Owls have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games when playing on field turf which the field here in St. Petersburg.

Florida International (8-4) pulled off their second straight upset victory this season with their 63-45 upset win over UMass as a 2.5-point underdog back on December 2nd. That win came on the heels of their 41-17 upset win over Western Kentucky the previous Saturday as a small 2.5-point underdog in that game. First-year head coach Butch Davis led his team to an incredible six upset victories this season — but his group may suffer a rude awakening in this game. FIU ranked last in the country for FBS teams in terms of strength of schedule according to the Sagarin ratings — and they will be facing a Temple team battled tested from playing in the American Athletic Conference that rated as the top Group of Five non-power conference. It is telling that Florida International has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games outside Conference USA play. I see two particular areas where mismatches are likely. First, the Golden Panthers’ small offensive line risks being overpowered by the big defensive line of the Owls. Secondly, FIU allowed 37.4 PPG along with 467.6 total YPG in their five games away from home — and they scored only 22.4 PPG while getting outgained by -144.4 net YPG in those five road games. The Golden Panthers do have a geographical advantage with this game being played in St. Petersburg — but they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral field. And in their last 5 games played in the month of December, FIU is 0-3-1 ATS. 25* CFB Temple-FIU Gasparilla Bowl Special Feature with the Temple Owls (215) minus the points versus the Florida International Golden Panthers (216). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (213) plus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (214) in the Frisco Bowl. SMU (7-5) will be a bit disorganized entering this bowl game with head coach Chad Morris leaving the program to take the Arkansas job. The players hoped that interim head coach Jeff Traylor would be offered the head coaching job — but the program offered former Louisiana Tech and Cal head coach Sonny Dykes the job. Traylor decided to leave with Morris to Arkansas to work on that staff leaving Dykes with a skeleton coaching staff for this game. Frankly, I think the impact of this turmoil to be likely overestimated — the players are being empowered to take more responsibility for the scheming for this game and they are all motivated to play well for their next head coach. But, I don’t like the situation for the Mustangs outside this relative chaos. SMU snapped their three-game losing streak in their last game back on November 25th after their 41-38 win over Tulane as a 7-point favorite. But the Mustangs have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a close win against a conference rival by 3 points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a win by a field goal or less at home. And while the Mustangs have only covered the point spread once in their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least four of their last five games. If there is an impact on SMU given the changes in the coaching staff, it will likely be on defense as Dykes’ teams have always been high-scoring teams that lagged on defense. The Mustangs rank 121st in the FBS by allowing 486.7 total YPG — and when SMU is playing away from home, they allowed 548.6 total YPG. They have allowed at least 31 points in five straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 31 points in their last game.

Louisiana Tech (6-6) has won two straight games to become bowl eligible after their 20-6 win over UTSA as a pick ‘em back on November 25th. The Bulldogs have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win. Louisiana Tech has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home against a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a double-digit win against a conference rival. The Bulldogs could have had a better record this season but suffered three net close losses decided by one scoring possession. They did play well away from as they were 4-1 on there road with an averaging winning margin of +6.8 net PPG. Louisiana Tech has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Louisiana Tech-SMU Frisco Bowl Special with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (213) plus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (214). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Akron Zips (211) plus the points versus the Florida Atlantic Owls (212). Florida Atlantic (10-3) has won nine straight games after winning the Conference USA Championship Game with their 41-17 win over North Texas by a 11-point spread. The Owls were looking to travel for their bowl game and perhaps flex their muscles against a Power Five conference team with a national reputation. But instead, they are staying at home to face a middling team from the Mid-American Conference while being installed as the biggest point spread favorite in a bowl game in the last 20 years. I expect this team to be very flat in this game that really does not mean much to them at this point of the season. Reports suggest that practices have been flat — and that is not a good sign for a head coach in Lane Kiffin who has never led any of college football teams to a bowl victory. And while FAU became a favorite with the betting public by putting up a lot of points, they faced a schedule ranked just 111th in the nation according to the Sagarin rankings. In this situation, home field may not offer much of an advantage since it will play into their complacency. As it is, the Owls have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games on their home field. And while FAU committed only one turnover against the Mean Green, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 home games after not committing  more than one turnover in their last game. The Owls have also failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 home games after playing a game against a conference opponent. Furthermore, FAU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams outside Conference USA.

10* CFB play on Akron plus the points versus Akron. Best of luck  for us -- Frank.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (332) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (331). Atlanta (8-5) enters this game after their triumphant 20-17 win over New Orleans two Thursdays ago. If you think this game looks eerily similar to last Monday night’s New England at Miami game, then you are not alone. The Falcons easily took care of the Buccaneers in the first meeting between these two teams back on November 26th in a 34-20 score in Atlanta. And with the rematch with the Saints in the Big Easy on deck this weekend, this Falcons team may be caught looking ahead. As it is, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games after a home win against a divisional rival. And while Atlanta has won four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning at least three of their last four games. The Falcons held New Orleans to just 50 rushing yards last night — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. Atlanta did suffer a -2 net turnover margin to the Saints in that victory — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after having a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Moving forward, the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 32 games as the favorite.

Tampa Bay (4-9) has lost three straight games with their 24-21 loss to Detroit last week. The Buccaneers have not only failed to cover in those three games but they have only paid off bettors in two of their last seven contests. But Tampa Bay has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after losing at least three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. This Buccaneers team entered the season with high expectations. While this year has been ruined, they can still play the role of spoiler against a divisional rival which should motivate them to play well without the burden of high expectations. Tampa Bay did allow 434 yards to the Lions in that loss — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Buccaneers did hold Detroit to just 53 rushing yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing at least 75 rushing yards in their last  game. Expect Tampa Bay to be inspired by the Miami Dolphins who pulled the upset last Monday night at home as the underdog against another divisional rival that played in last February’s Super Bowl. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (332) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (330) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (329). Oakland (6-7) looks to bounce-back from their 26-15 loss in Kansas City last week against what now appears to be a resurgent Chiefs team after their upset win over the Chargers last night. While the Raiders are likely out of the AFC playoff picture, they can still play the role of spoiler while playing well in front of a nationally televised crowd. Oakland has not covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The Raiders have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to a divisional rival. And while they allowed the Chiefs to rush for 165 yards last week, they are then 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game.

10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Oakland plus the points. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (327) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (328). San Francisco (3-10) secured their second straight upset victory with their 26-16 win at Houston as a 1-point underdog. The 49ers seemed to have found their answer at QB with Jimmy Garoppolo under center as he completed 20 of 33 passes for 334 yards with a touchdown pass. Hey, Garoppolo is undefeated as a starter in the NFL with his victory over the Bears two weeks ago along with two starts with New England last September when Tom Brady was serving his Deflate-gate suspension. But before Garoppolo is inducted into the Hall of Fame, lets remember that he is playing for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. And while the 49ers generated 416 yards of offense last week, they are just 11-24-1 ATS in their last 36 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now San Fran returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the 49ers are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 14 games in the month of December, San Fran is 4-9-1 ATS.

Tennessee (8-5) looks to bounce-back from a very flat effort last week when they were upset in Arizona by a 12-7 score as a 2.5-point favorite. The Titans have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after suffering an upset loss. Tennessee has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. The team stayed out west this week for this game — and I heard Mike Munchak proclaim that it was his team’s best week of practice this week. The Titans need to get back to their foundation of running the football after they managed just 65 rushing yards last week after generating 198 yards on the ground the previous week against the Titans. Tennessee is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. The defense is playing very well — they have registered 20 sacks over their last three games. Lastly, the Titans have covered the point spread in 48 of their last 76 games against teams from the NFC. 10* NFL Tennessee-San Francisco Side Special with the Tennessee Titans (327) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (328). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (325) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (326). Pittsburgh (11-2) has had this date circled since the league office put out the schedule as they are looking to avenge last year’s 36-17 loss in New England in the AFC Championship Game. But the timing for their opportunity for revenge could not be worse. For starters, the Steelers have gutted through two very difficult games against AFC North rivals. After the their very physical game against the Bengals two weeks ago, Pittsburgh rallied from an 11-point deficit in the 4th quarter to eke out a 39-38 victory over Baltimore. Recovering from this stretch is difficult enough. As it is, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. And in their last fifteen games after facing their arch rival in the Ravens, Pittsburgh has lost eight of these games straight-up. The mental and physical toll of those two games will be difficult to sustain now — especially with all the pressure this team feels to step up for this game given the words of head coach Mike Tomlin over the last few weeks. A big emotional letdown may happen for this team. While they have won eight straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning eight of their last ten games. Furthermore, this Steelers’ defense is far from at full strength. The season-ending injury to Ryan Shazier takes away their best defender of short and intermediate routes that this Patriots team absolutely thrives in with tight end Rob Gronkowski leading the way. In the seven quarters this team has played since losing Shazier in the Bengals game, Pittsburgh has allowed 48 points and 654 yards. Even worse, the Steelers have allowed their opponent to score a touchdown in all six of their Red Zone appearances since that Shazier injury — as opposed to not allowing a TD in thirteen of their previous twenty-five Red Zone defensive situations. Pittsburgh is also missing cornerback Joe Haden with his broken fibula who was their best cover man in their secondary. Over their last three games without Haden, the Steelers defense has allowed 28.7 PPG along with 357.7 total YPG. Haden is listed as questionable for this game but is not likely to be close to 100% even if takes the field which will leave the Pittsburgh pass defense still vulnerable after Joe Flacco torched them for 269 yards and a 7.69 Yards-Per-Attempt average. Pittsburgh has allowed their last two opponents to average 6.09 and 6.77 Yards-Per-Play without Haden and Shazier (for all but one quarter) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing each of their last two opponents to average at least 6.0 YPP. On offense, Big Ben Roethlisberger did complete 44 of 66 passes for 506 yards against the Ravens last week — but the Steelers have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh is also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. And while the Steelers have not covered the point spread in their last three contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games.

New England (10-3) should be angry and focused after they were flat on Monday in their 27-20 loss in Miami despite being a 10.5-point favorite. Casinos have been built on bettors leaving this Patriots team for dead in the Bill Belichick and Tom Brady era. New England is 42-18-1 ATS in their last 61 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games after a point spread setback. And I am not worried about the short week when considering that the Patriots are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on a Sunday after a game on Monday Night Football. Brady will be very happy to see Gronkowski return to the field after he served his suspension last week. New England managed only 248 yards against the Dolphins while only rushing the ball to 10 times for a measly 25 yards. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 31 games after failing to generate at least 350 yards in their last game. Brady should bounce-back as he thrives when facing a Mike Tomlin defense. When facing a team with Tomlin as either head coach or defensive coordinator, Brady has thrown 26 touchdown passes and only one interception — and that TD to interception ratio is a perfect 22-0 with Tomlin the head coach with the Steelers. Brady has won ten of his twelve career starts against Pittsburgh. Take last year’s AFC Championship Game where Brady faced a Cover-2 or Cover-3 zone defense in 39 of his 43 drop-backs. If the defense cannot create immediate pressure on Brady, he just picks the defense apart by finding voids in the zone defense. He completed 32 of 42 passes last year against the Steelers playing zone in 91% of his drop back passes. Like I said, Pittsburgh will really miss Joe Haden. On defense, this team is substantially better than they were in the first month of the season. Over their last three games, the Patriots are allowing only 15.7 PPG along with only 283.7 total YPG even after last week’s loss to the Dolphins where they allowed 362 yards (helped by having the football for over 36 minutes). New England’s seasonal defensive numbers or the analytics at sites like Football Outsiders simply fail to capture the quality of this unit at this point of the season (because they are unwilling and/or unable to the need for subjective analysis to their “objective” formulas that originate from subjective weighting systems). Lastly, the Patriots are very reliable in situations like this. New England has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have covered the point spread in 7 straight road games as the favorite. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Pittsburgh against the Steelers. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. The Pats have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the Total set at least at 49.5. And in their last 6 games in the month of December, New England has covered the point spread in 5 of these games. The end. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the New England Patriots (325) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (326). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (324) minus (or plus) the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (323). Los Angeles (9-4) had a golden opportunity last week with a 4-point lead and the ball facing an Eagles team having to rely on their backup quarterback — and they blew their chance to seize control of the NFC Playoff race by losing by a 43-35 score to Nick Foles and Philadelphia. The stat guys over at Football Outsiders remain undismayed as their laptops still rate the Rams their top team in the NFL. Perhaps is because they have yet to find a formula to measure how teams respond to pressure. In this area, both quarterback Jared Goff and head coach Sean McVay (too often busy looking for more offensive plays than managing the game) are unproven commodities — and they are both at a huge disadvantage when playing on the road against Super Bowl Champions in QB Russell Wilson and head coach Pete Carroll. The Rams put up great efficiency numbers which they combine with an elite and complete Special Teams unit. And I do appreciate the Football Outside folks taking Special Teams seriously. But efficiency numbers do not tell the entire story (as that crew is beginning to realize in the face of Time of Possession numbers that are confounding their predictions). And it is hard to for teams to rely on big plays out of their Special Teams from week-to-week. The Rams blew that game with the Eagles despite earning a touchdown from a blocked punt last week. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in five of their last eight games on the road with the Total falling in that range. LA has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. They are just 8-18-1 ATS when playing of turf that rewards speed. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of December. Furthermore, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow NFC West opponents. And while this team is looking to avenge a 16-10 loss to Seattle at home back on October 8th, they have then failed to cover the point spread when playing with same-season revenge in 40 of those last 56 opportunities.

Seattle (8-5) looks to bounce-back from their 30-24 loss in Jacksonville last week. The Seahawks are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up loss. Now this Seattle team returns home where they looked so good two weeks ago in defeating the supposed invincible Eagles (who just beat this Rams team). The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 home games after playing a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. Seattle’s defense has allowed 425 and 414 points in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 400 yards in two straight games. Wilson needs to play better after throwing three interceptions last week. But Wilson also threw for 271 yards and added another 50 yards on the ground — and the Seahawks are 24-8-3 ATS in their last 35 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Lastly, Seattle is 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games in the month of December. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (324) minus (or plus) the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (323). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (308) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (307). Philadelphia (11-2) bounced-back from their 24-10 loss in Seattle with a defiant 43-35 win on the road in Los Angeles against the Rams. The team have accrued a Pyrrhic Victory when considering that their star quarterback Carson Wentz suffered a season-ending knee injury in that game. I think Nick Foles will fill in just fine for Wentz — but he does not have the incredible, elite play-making skills that Wentz has displayed this season. This is an awfully tough situation for the Eagles to maintain their intensity for a third straight week after two straight grueling games. Even worse for this team, this will be their third straight week on the road as well as their fourth game in their last five away from home. With Wentz going down after the team already lost offensive lineman Jason Peters and linebacker Jordan Hicks for the season, this Philly team has lost some of their best talent on both sides of the football. There are warning signs that this team is beginning to crack. They have committed six turnovers over the last three weeks while committing 28 penalties. They have covered the point spread in nine of their last ten games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 43 games after covering the point spread in at least four of their last five games. Additionally, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing on field turf. And in the last 11 road games as the favorite laying 7.5 to 10 points, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these games.

New York (2-11) saw the triumphant return of Eli Manning to their starting lineup under center last week but it was the same ole Giants as they lost to the Cowboys by a 30-10 score as a 4-point home underdog. Somehow, I see head coach Steve Spagnola and Manning to lead this team to be very competitive as they try to play the role as spoilers in this contest. New York is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread loss. And while the Giants have lost three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing at least three straight games. Lastly, in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road, New York has covered the point spread 6 times. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (308) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (320) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (319). Arizona (6-7) has won two of their last three games after their upset 12-7 win over Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog. We had the Cardinals in that game — but this team looks due for a letdown having to travel out east for this early kick off where their internal body clock will feel like it is 10 AM. As it is, Arizona is just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. The Cardinals did hold the Titans to just 204 yards of offense in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing less than 205 lads in their last game. Arizona is also just 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. The Cards have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. And Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record.

Washington (5-8) was embarrassed last week in Los Angeles where they lost by a 30-13 score to the Chargers as a 6-point underdog. That was the second straight loss for this injury riddled Skins team. But Kirk Cousins is still healthy at quarterback — and he is the heartbeat of this team. Washington has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after suffering two straight losses. Defense has been an issue as they allowed 314 passing yards last week to the Chargers. But the Skins have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And while they have allowed 68 combined points in their last two losses, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 25 points in two straight games. Lastly, Washington has covered the point spread in 6 off their last 9 games played on the last four weeks of the regular season. Together, these team trends produce our specific 68-19-2 ATS combined angle for this situation. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Kickoff with the Washington Redskins (320) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (314) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (313). Miami (6-7) pulled off their second straight upset on Monday — and they played their best game in years — by picking off the Patriots as 10.5-point underdogs in their 27-20 victory as a 10.5-point underdog. The Dolphins are prime candidates for a big letdown in this spot after such an emotional win. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a Sunday on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. Now this team goes on the road — and in the cold for these South Beachers with the temperate currently at 27 degrees as of this writing this morning — where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games away from home. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.

Miami (7-6) survived the blizzard last week by eking out a 13-7 win in overtime over the Colts. The good news for this team this week is that QB Tyrod Taylor has been upgraded to probable to take the field after going through the concussion protocol. Without Taylor available last week and in those challenging weather conditions, the Bills passed for only 92 passing yards — but they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after failing to pass for at least 150 yards in their last game. Buffalo did rush for 227 yards in that game led by LeSean McCoy who seems to love rushing in cold conditions —and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Bills have not scored more than 16 points in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after failing to score at least 17 points in three straight games. Lastly, Buffalo is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. 20* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Buffalo Bills (314) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:25 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (306) plus (or minus) the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (305). Kansas City (7-6) was once the toast of the league early in the season when they rattled off five straight victories — and we were bearish on them then. But now most bettors have jumped off the ole bandwagon as they have lost six of their last eight games while also only covering the point spread twice over those last eight contests. But that is an overreaction as well — and this Chiefs team should be very feisty in this rare situation where they are a home underdog. To make things even saltier for this Kansas City team, they are underdogs at home to a Chargers team that they have defeated seven straight times. I like what I saw with this Kansas City team last week where they defeated the Raiders by a 26-15 score as a 4.5-point favorite. Dominating both sides of the line of scrimmage helped the Chiefs get back to their winning ways — perhaps the entire team responded to the message head coach Andy Reid sent when he suspended starting cornerback Marcus Peters for losing control the previous week when he tossed an official’s penalty flag into the crowd. Rookie Kareem Hunt broke out of his slump by rushing the ball 25 times for 116 yards while adding another 22 yards in the air. The Chiefs rushed for 165 yards against the Raiders which helped them control the clock for 36:40 minutes — and they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. KC held Oakland to just 70 rushing yards — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 90 yards in their last contest. Additionally, the Chiefs ave covered the point spread in 5 straight games after both a straight-up win and after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Kansas City has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. And in their last 9 games against AFC West opponents, the Chiefs have covered the point spread 8 times.

25* NFL Network Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs plus (or minus) the points. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (303) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (304). Chicago (4-9) built some momentum for themselves last week with their 33-7 upset win in Cincinnati as a 6-point underdog. The Bears controlled the clock for this game as they had the football for 38:09 of this game which helped them churn out 482 yards of offense. This Time of Possession advantage helped them keep the Bengals off the field — and Cincy had just 234 yards of offense in that contest. Running back Jordan Howard ran the ball 23 times for 147 yards and two touchdowns — and this will be the formula for success against the Lions for this game. Detroit allows 116.3 rushing YPG which is 20th in the league. QB Mitch Trubisky is also playing better football as he gets more experience as the starter. Over his last two games, Trubisky has a nice 113.9 Passer Rating — and he is facing a Lions’ defense that has allowed opposing quarterbacks to dial up a strong 99.6 Passer Rating against them over their last six games. With the Chicago offense stabilizing, their strong defense can flex their muscles. For the season, the Bears rank 11th in the NFL by allowing only 325.5 total YPG. On the road, Chicago is giving up 15.8 PPG along with 317.2 total YPG. The Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of December. Chicago is also 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. The Bears will be playing with revenge from a 27-24 loss in Detroit back on November 19th. Chicago is still 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Lions which suggests this will be another close game.

Detroit (7-6) enters this game coming off their 24-21 win in Tampa Bay last Sunday. But the Lions are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Detroit did generate 434 yards of offense in that game — but they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But the Lions defense surrendered 440 yards to the Bucs who averaged 6.1 Yards-Per-Play — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.0 YPP. Detroit returns home where they are just 2-4 this season while being outgained by -43.8 net YPG. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home in Ford Field. Lastly, Detroit is just 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games in the month of December. 10* NFL Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (303) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (207) plus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (208). Marshall (7-5) limps into this bowl game having lost two straight games — as well as four of their last five contests — with their 28-27 upset loss to Southern Mississippi as a 2-point favorite back on November 25th. Expect 8th year head coach Doc Holliday to have his team ready to play in this bowl game with the opportunity to end their season on a high note after this disappointing second half of the season. The Thundering Herd have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games when playing on the road after a point spread setback. This team plays outstanding defense with a unit that returned seven starters and was infused with five impactful transfers in the offseason. Marshall ranked 17th in the nation by allowing 19.3 PPG — and they 25th in the FBS by holding teams to just 337.7 total YPG. This stout defense should keep them competitive as they outscored their six opponents when they played away from home by +5.4 PPG while outgaining these foes by +28.4 net YPG. This Marshall team also holds a significant edge in Special Teams for this contest. The Thundering Herd are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games against non-conference opponents. And Holliday has led his team to a perfect 4-0 record in his tenure in bowl games — and this team has covered the point spread in 5 straight bowl appearances.

Colorado State (7-5) also suffered a disappointing second-half of the season s they have lost three of their last four games while failing to cover the point spread in six straight contests (Jagermeister helped with the deletion of the brain cells regarding their game with Boise State where we were winning by two touchdowns as an underdog with just 1:41 left and then … blank). The Rams did rebound in their last regular season game to blowout a bad San Jose State team by a 42-14 score as a 32.5-point favorite. But Colorado State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Their offense generated 606 yards of offense in that contest — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Colorado State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after playing at least two straight games against Mountain West Conference opponents. This team has not been a very team on neutral fields where they are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 bowl games — and head coach Mike Bobo has lost his first two bowl games with the program. 10* CFB Marshall-Colorado State New Mexico Bowl Special with the Marshall Thundering Herd (207) plus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (208). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (206) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (205). Oregon (7-5) enters this game coming off a big 69-10 win over Oregon State as a 26-point favorite back on November 25th. Since that game, first-year head coach jilted the program by taking his dream job at Florida State. The Ducks have since named offensive coordinator Mario Cristobal as the new head coach which is fine — and I do not see that move impacting this team in either direction for this Bowl game. However, I am troubled by the decisions of running back Royce Freeman along with offensive linemen Tyrell Crosby and Jake Pisarcik to bypass playing in this game to not risk injury and their draft status as they hope to be picked high by an NFL team in April (and this is one of the reasons why I don’t like to be too hasty in picking these bowl games). As it is, Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread win — and they are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up victory. Additionally, the Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a win by at least 20 points. And in their last 13 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game, Oregon is just 3-9-1 ATS. The Ducks do have their talented sophomore QB Justin Herbert back under center — and they were much better on offense with him the starting quarterback. Yet that is one of the reasons why they are laying around a touchdown to a solid Broncos team — and they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games against non-conference opponents.

Boise State (10-3) has won eight of their last nine games after they won the Mountain West Conference Championship Game with their 17-14 win over Fresno State. The Broncos have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Boise State has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. This a dangerous underdog because they play so good on defense. The Broncos allow 22.5 PPG while ranking 23rd in the FBS by limiting opponents to just 336.7 total YPG. Quarterback Brett Rypien is playing his best football of the year to close out the season. This team has only forced one turnover in their last two games — but the Regression Gods may be taking notice as they have then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after failing to force more than one turnover in two straight games. And while this Boise State team has not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. 20* CFB Oregon-Boise State Las Vegas Bowl Special with the Boise State Broncos (206) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (205). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (203) plus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (204). Georgia State (6-5) has lost two straight games with their 24-10 upset loss to Idaho on December 2nd despite being a 7.5-point favorite. The Panthers should bounce-back with an inspired effort in just their second bowl game in the program’s history. The team also received a shot in the arm with sophomore wide receiver Penny Hart being upgraded to probable after dealing with a foot injury. As it is, Georgia State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after suffering two straight losses — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games after losing two straight losses. Additionally, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss to a conference rival. Part of what did Georgia State in against the Vandals was a -4 net turnover margin — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game where they had at least a -3 net turnover margin. And while the Panthers offense has scored only 20 combined points in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring no more than 17 points in two straight games. Moving forward, Georgia State has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 road games played on a Saturday. They were 5-1 away from home this season. They have a good QB in senior Connor Manning who was a former Utah player before transferring. And in their last 23 games as an underdog, the Panthers have covered the point spread 14 times.

Western Kentucky (6-6) has lost five of their last six games with their 41-17 loss at Florida International back on November 24th as a 3-point favorite. The Hilltoppers may have trouble rebounding from that loss as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, Western Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least 20 points. And in their last 9 games after allowing at least 40 points, the Hilltoppers are just 2-6-1 ATS. This team has seen their offensive production regress this season under first-year head coach Mike Sanford despite his previous experience as the offensive coordinator at Notre Dame. The Western Kentucky offense returned senior QB Mike White from an offense that averaged 45.5 PPG — but they saw that production drop by almost 20 PPG as they are scoring just 26.2 PPG this season. The offensive line is certainly one of the factors in this decline as they lost three NFL caliber linemen from last year’s team. This season, the Hilltoppers are averaging just 2.1 Yards-Per-Carry while allowing 41 sacks. The lack of a credible rushing attack is a concern for this game: Western Kentucky is 129th in the FBS by averaging just 66.1 rushing YPG. The Hilltoppers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams from the Sun Belt Conference. Lastly, Western Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as the favorite. 10* CFB Georgia State-Western Kentucky Cure Bowl Special with the Georgia State Panthers (203) plus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (204). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (201) plus the points versus Troy Trojans (202) in the New Orleans Bowl. North Texas (9-4) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in the Conference USA Championship Game in a rough 41-17 loss at Florida Atlantic in December 2nd as an 11-point underdog. Look for the Mean Green to be motivated to redeem themselves from that bad effort and secure a ten-win season for the football program. North Texas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while the Mean Green went into the locker room with a 27-0 half time deficit, they have then covered the point spread 10 of their last 12 games on the road after trailing by at least 24 points at the half in their last game. Additionally, North Texas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. The Mean Green did surrender 352 yards of offense to the Owls in that last loss — but they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after allowing at least 325 passing yards in their last contest. North Texas likely has the edge at QB with Mason Fine who completed 64% of his passes while passing 28 touchdown passes to just 13 interceptions. He led his offense to 437 yards against FAU — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Mean Green has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against non-conference opponents.

Troy (10-2) has won six straight games which helped them tie for first place in the Sun Belt Conference after a 32-25 win at Arkansas State as a 1-point favorite. Frankly, the Trojans were outplayed by the Red Wolves as they lost the first down battle by a 32-14 margin while getting outgained by a horrendous 606 to 293 margin. Three interceptions — one returned for a 100-yard touchdown to create a 14-point swing — contributed to a +2 net turnover margin. Troy also returned a 99-yard kickoff return for a touchdown to help overcome getting clobbered at the line of scrimmage. Most metrics give the edge to North Texas in the Special Teams Department for this game — so it is unlikely that the Trojans will benefit from Special Teams in this contest. The Trojans are the public team in this game with their high profile win over LSU this season. They also have a defense that ranked 11th in the FBS by allowing 17.5 PPG. But this team is riddled with injuries with safety Kris Weatherspoon and cornerback Blake Brown both out for this game. QB Brandon Silvers will also be without one of his best weapons in wide receiver Emanuel Thompson. Silvers seemed to regress this season as he tossed only 13 touchdown passes as compared to 23 TD passes last season. Troy has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. The Trojans have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against non-conference opponents. 20* CFB North Texas-Troy New Orleans Bowl Special with the North Texas Mean Green (201) plus the points versus Troy Trojans (202) in the New Orleans Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (302) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (301). Indianapolis (3-10) has lost four straight games after they lost in Buffalo on Sunday in that blizzard by a 13-7 score in overtime. The Colts did show grit in that game by rallying from those challenging conditions to tie the game in the 4th quarter to force overtime. The Colts have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 46 games after a straight-up loss. Indianapolis has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 15 points in their last contest. Indy managed only 227 yards of offense in that setback on Sunday — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. This Colts team has still covered the point spread in 29 of their last 39 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 15 appearances on Thursday Night Football, Indianapolis is 12-2-1 ATS.

Denver (4-9) snapped their eight-game losing streak last Sunday with their 23-0 shutout upset win over the Jets as a 1-point underdog. Look for this Broncos team going absolutely nowhere this season to suffer a letdown on this short week. As it is, they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win. Denver is also 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread victory. To compound matters, the Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a victory by at least two touchdowns. And in their last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their last game, Denver is just 0-3-1 ATS. Now the Broncos go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 7 games against fellow AFC opponents, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread 6 times. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Indianapolis Colts (302) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (134) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (133). New England (10-2) enters this game coming off their 23-3 win in Buffalo last Sunday. But the team will be without tight end Rob Gronkowski in this game which takes away Tom Brady’s security blanket. Brady’s numbers are markedly better with Gronkowski on the field. In his career, Brady completes 66% of his passes while averaging a robust 8.0 Yards Per Passing Attempt with a 5.29:1 touchdown to interception ration and a QB Rating of 79. But in games without Gronkowski, Brady sees those numbers drop to a 62% completion percentage with a 7.0 YPA mark and a 2.95:1 TD to interception ratio and a QBR of 63. Furthermore, South Beach has not been Brady’s favorite place to play as the Patriots are scoring just 23.8 PPG in his fifteen starts in Miami while Brady has gotten sacked 32 times while throwing 13 interceptions. Brady was also limited in practice this week after taking some shots to the body by the Bills — and this game shapes up to be very physical after the Dolphins were very chippy a few weeks ago in their 35-17 loss in New England back on November 26th. Moving forward, the Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record on the road.

Miami (5-7) looks to build off their 35-9 win over Denver last week as a 1-point underdog. The Dolphins are then 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a point spread victory. The Miami offense has steadily improved this season. They generated 367 yards against a still solid Broncos defense last week — and they are then 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Over their last three games, the Dolphins are scoring 25.2 PPG while averaging 349.0 total YPG. Some of the improvements on offense has been the improved play of QB Jay Cutler. But  some of this success can be attributed to the development of second-year running back Kenyon Drake. The former Alabama player ran the ball 23 times last week for 120 yards. Miami looks to avenge their loss to the Patriots a few weeks ago back on their home field where they are holding their visitors to just 20.8 PPG along with only 286.0 total YPG. The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 4 games in the month of December, Miami has covered the point spread all 4 times. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Miami Dolphins (134) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (133). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (131) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (132). Baltimore (7-5) has won three straight games — as well as four of their last five contests — with their 44-20 win over Detroit last Sunday. This Ravens team is playing with confidence behind an outstanding defense and an improving offense that is finding themselves after being ravaged with injuries to start the season. Joe Flacco completed 23 of 36 passes against the Lions for 269 yards with two TD passes to lead the offense for 370 total yards. Baltimore is then 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Ravens defense has allowed only 400 yards only once this season — and that was their game in London with those unique travel situations. Baltimore will be playing their revenge on their minds after losing by a 26-9 score at home to the Steelers back on October 1st. Flacco has won two of his last three starts in Pittsburgh while leading his team to score 80 combined points in that contest. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against fellow AFC North opponents. The Ravens are also 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record, Baltimore is 3-0-1 ATS.

Pittsburgh (10-2) comes off a physically and emotionally draining game with the Bengals last week which they survived by a 23-20 score in Cincinnati against the Bengals. And this team has a showdown with the Patriots on deck next Sunday which will likely determine the top seed in the AFC Playoffs. In fact, even if the Steelers lose this game, a win over New England next week likely gives them the tie-breaker over the Patriots. While that is not to say that Pittsburgh does not want to beat their arch rivals in this Baltimore team again — but it might impact how head coach Mike Tomlin views things if some players get hurt in this game. As it is, the Steelers are just 2-5-1 ATS when playing on a short week on a Sunday after a game on Monday Night Football. The Steelers are without some important players in this game as well. Star linebacker Ryan Shazier will not play for the rest of the season after he was carted off the field for his hit that injured his spine. The team is already without cornerback Joe Haden who has been dealing with a fibula injury for weeks — and his absence has exposed the Pittsburgh secondary to big plays that even Andy Dalton has been able to expose. Wide receiver Juju Smith-Schuster is also out for tonight as he is serving his one-game suspension for his hit and taunt on Vontaze Burfict in that game on Monday. The absence of Smith-Schuster takes away a big-play option for Big Ben Roethlisberger while his defense is giving up more and more of these plays. The Steelers have allowed nine passing plays of more than 40 yards which is 6th worst in the league this season. They have allowed their last two opponents to average 6.14 and 6.09 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after allowing at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. Roethlisberger does tend to struggle against the Ravens. In his last eleven starts, he has just a 4-7 record while tossing just 13 touchdowns and throwing just as many interceptions. And while Pittsburgh has won seven straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games along with failing to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after winning at least five straight games. With this being a very challenging sandwich situation for a team that has seemed to not meet their high expectations (despite their great record), expect this to be another close game for the Steelers. 25* NFL AFC North Game of the Year with the Baltimore Ravens (131) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (132). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (127) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (128). Philadelphia (10-2) looks to bounce-back from their 24-10 upset loss at Seattle as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday night. The Eagles did not rush for at least 100 yards for the first time since the opening week of the season in that game. But this team should have benefited from the playoff atmosphere from that game. This is a business trip for this Philly team that stayed out west for this game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road. The Eagles did dominate the yardage battle as they generated 425 yards against the Seahawks defense while outgaining them by +115 net yards. Philadelphia has then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Philly defense has been playing quite well as they have allowed only 69 combined yards for a 13.8 PPG average. The offense will get tight end Zach Ertz back on the field for this game after he was unable to finish the game on Sunday. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against fellow NFC opponents. Philadelphia has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 10 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, the Eagles have covered the point spread 8 times.

Los Angeles (9-3) looks to build off their 32-16 win over Arizona last week. The Rams won that game despite getting outgained by the Cardinals in that contest — a 41-yard interception return for a touchdown helped make the difference in that game. In this showdown for first place in the NFC, there a couple of concerns I have about this Los Angeles offense. For starters, QB Jared Goff lacks the mobility and athleticism of the Eagles’ Carson Wentz — and Goff will be facing a tough pass rush from the Eagles. Secondly, Todd Gurley’s productivity has decreases as he has not rushed for 100 yards in five straight games while managing only one touchdown over that span. Those are not encouraging items for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and this includes three straight failures to cover the spread when that Over/Under range tightens to the 45.5 to 49 margin. Lastly, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of December. 20* NFL Eagles-Rams Fox-TV Special with the Philadelphia Eagles (127) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (121) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (122). Los Angeles (6-6) has won three straight games with their 19-10 win over Cleveland as a 13.5-point favorite. The Chargers were actually outgained the lowly Browns by -138 net yards as they generated only 291 yards. A +2 net turnover margin helped make up for a defense that surrendered 429 yards of offense to DeShone Kizer and company. That defense allowed five big plays of at least 25 yards in that game. Los Angeles has then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread loss. The Chargers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest. This team stays at home where they have little home field advantage given their still lack of familiarity with that field and few supporters in the LA area. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 5 games in the month of December, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in all 5 games.

Washington (5-7) has had extra time to rest and prepare for this game after their 38-14 upset loss in Dallas as a 1.5-point favorite back on November 30th. The Skins have then bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Washington has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now the Skins get to play the role of spoiler in the AFC Playoffs — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of December. And in their last 17 games on the road, Washington has covered the point spread in 12 of these games. Together, these team trends produce our specific 95-29-1 ATS combined angle for this situation. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Washington Redskins (121) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (122). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (121) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (122). Los Angeles (6-6) has won three straight games with their 19-10 win over Cleveland as a 13.5-point favorite. The Chargers were actually outgained the lowly Browns by -138 net yards as they generated only 291 yards. A +2 net turnover margin helped make up for a defense that surrendered 429 yards of offense to DeShone Kizer and company. That defense allowed five big plays of at least 25 yards in that game. Los Angeles has then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread loss. The Chargers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest. This team stays at home where they have little home field advantage given their still lack of familiarity with that field and few supporters in the LA area. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And int heir last 5 games in the month of December, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in all 5 games.

10* NFL play on Washington. Best of luck for us-- Frank.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (107) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (108). Cincinnati (5-7) plays this game coming off a short week in what resulted in a 23-20 loss at home to the Steelers. That was a very physical game with plenty of emotions involved in that heated rivalry. That sets this underachieving Bengals team to suffer a big letdown when now facing this mediocre Bears team. Cincinnati had won their previous two games to make their record look better — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning two of their last three games. Furthermore, the Bengals have covered the point spread in four straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in at least contests. This is a banged up football team playing on a short week. Joe Mixon, Vontaze Burfict and Dre Kilpatrick have all been declared out for this game. Furthermore, favorites laying 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range who have won two of their last three games now facing a team with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range have then failed to cover the point spread in 29 of the last 37 situations (78%) where these conditions applied.

Chicago (3-9) has lost five straight games with their 15-14 loss to San Francisco last week. The Bears have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And while they allowed 388 yards to the 49ers, they are then 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. This Chicago team will challenge the Bengals physically — they have a solid defense with a good offensive line. Chicago has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range — and this includes covering the point spread in four straight road games with the Total set in that range. Lastly, the Bears have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against AFC opponents. Together, these team trends produce our specific 43-15-1 ATS combined angle for this situation. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (107) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (116) plus the point(s) versus the Minnesota Vikings (115). Carolina (8-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last week with their 31-21 loss in New Orleans as a 5.5-point favorite. The Panthers have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Carolina has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Additionally, New Orleans outgained them by 121 yards in that game — but this franchise has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 home games after being outgained by at least 100 yards in their last game. And while the Panthers allowed the Saints to pass for 252 yards, they are then 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. This team has been playing good football as of late with Cam Newton fully healed from a shoulder injury that slowed him down to begin the season. He is averaging a whopping 7.0 Yards-Per-Carry over his last seven contests while completing throwing to the wind those rumors in the offseason that he would not be running the ball anymore. A healthy Greg Olsen is back on the field to offer Newton his favorite passing target as well. Returning home will help after the Panthers have played their last two games on the road — and Carolina has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing their last two games on the road. And in their last 11 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 9 of these games. Carolina has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as the underdog. Finally on the Panthers side of the equation, they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

20* NFL play with Carolina plus the points. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (107) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (108). Cincinnati (5-7) plays this game coming off a short week in what resulted in a 23-20 loss at home to the Steelers. That was a very physical game with plenty of emotions involved in that heated rivalry. That sets this underachieving Bengals team to suffer a big letdown when now facing this mediocre Bears team. Cincinnati had won their previous two games to make their record look better — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning two of their last three games. Furthermore, the Bengals have covered the point spread in four straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in at least contests. This is a banged up football team playing on a short week. Joe Mixon, Vontaze Burfict and Dre Kilpatrick have all been declared out for this game. Furthermore, favorites laying 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range who have won two of their last three games now facing a team with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range have then failed to cover the point spread in 29 of the last 37 situations where these conditions applied.

10* NFL play on Chicago plus the points. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (130) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (129). There will be plenty of emotion in the Meadowlands this afternoon as the proverbial Prodigal Son in Eli Manning returns to the starting lineup in a stadium that will be full of Eli jerseys in the wake of the firing of Giants’ head coach Ben McAdoo along with their general manager Jerry Reese. New York (2-10) has played two straight games on the road — as well as three of their last four contests. That long game at home was an upset win over the Chiefs. I look for this team to play inspired football under this situation — especially for interim head coach Steve Spagnola who represents Big Blue as the defensive coordinator for a Super Bowl Championship with Manning under center. This also is an opportunity for this team to play spoiler against the Cowboys while avenging a 19-3 loss in Dallas back on September 10th. The Giants look to bounce-back from their 24-17 loss at Oakland last week as a 10-point underdog. New York rushed for only 65 yards in that game after managing just 84 rushing yards in Washington the week before. But the Giants are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 tams after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in two straight games. Additionally, New York scored only 7 points in the first half of their game with the Raiders — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to score more than a touchdown in the first half of their last game. Furthermore, the Giants have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as the underdog.

Dallas (6-6) snapped their three-game losing streak two Thursdays ago with their 38-14 upset win over Washington as a 1.5-point underdog. We had the Cowboys in that game so we were very happy with those results. However, without Ezekiel Elliott and his dynamic skills as both a runner but also a pass catcher and a blocker out of the backfield, this is a limited football team that depends on their ability to win the Time of Possession battle to keep their defense off the field. The Cowboys managed just 275 yards — and they were outgained by the Skins. QB Dak Prescott completed only 11 of 22 passes for 102 yards in that contest — and they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after failing to pass for more than 150 yards in their last game. Dallas also covered the point spread for the first time in four games in that contest — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two of their last three games. Furthermore, the Cowboys are a rough 10-23-1 ATS in their last 34 games played on field turf. Dallas is also 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in the month of December — and a loss in this one would probably ruin their playoff chances. That is an ominous sign when considering that the visiting team has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams. And in their last 6 trips to the Meadowlands to face the Giants, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games. 25* NFL NFC East Underdog of the Year with the New York Giants (130) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (129). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Navy Midshipmen (104) minus the points versus the Army West Point Black Knights (103). Navy (6-5) saw their fourteen-game winning streak in this series snapped last year with their 21-17 loss to Army despite being a 6-point favorite. We had the Black Knights in this game last year — but we will take the Midshipmen to earn their revenge on Saturday. Navy has lost five of their last six games which may scare off some bettors — but this was during a tough stretch of games in the American Athletic Conference. The Midshipmen lost their games to Memphis, Houston, Central Florida, Temple as well as their non-conference tilt with Notre Dame while defeating SMU. What all those teams have in common is that they earned the right to play in a bowl game. Navy has also defeated Tulane who beat these Black Knights two weeks later. The Midshipmen also defeated Lane Kiffin’s Florida Atlantic team before the betting public fell in love with that team. Despite their 6-5 record against a challenging schedule, Navy outgained their opponents by +38.8 net YPG. The Midshipmen take the field again looking to bounce-back from their 24-17 loss at Houston as a 6.5-point underdog. Navy is then 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point spread loss. The Midshipmen have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than 20 points. Navy has struggled on offense as they have scored only 31 combined points over their last two games. But the Midshipmen have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 road games after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. Navy has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after losing three of their last four games. The extra time off should five junior QB Zach Abbey more time to recover from a concussion he suffered late in the season — although he did play against the Cougars. Head coach Ken Niumatalolu has also used slot receiver Malcolm Perry under center which gives his team more options to move the ball. Turnovers have been an issue at times for this team but they have only committed one turnover in each of their last two games. The Midshipmen have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 56 road games after not committing more than one turnover in at least two straight games. Furthermore, Navy is 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record this season.

Army (8-3) enters this rivalry game coming off their 52-49 win a North Texas back on November 18th. That loss snapped the Black Knights’ six-game winning streak — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. Army has also failed to cover then point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Additionally, the Black Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after winning two of their last three games. And in their last 49 games after a bye week, Army has failed to cover the point spread 35 times. A weakness for this team is their utter lack of a passing attack as they rank 129th in the nation by averaging just 30.5 passing YPG. While both these teams run spread triple options, Navy has more a credible passing attack to account for as they average nearly three times as many passing YPG with 91.2 passing YPG. Lastly, the Black Knights are only outgaining their opponents by +12.4 YPG away from home which is far below the +29.1 net YPG average for Navy when on the road. Take the more battle-tested team playing with revenge on their minds a year after Army finally toppled their arch rival in their most important game of the season. 25* CFB CBS-TV Game of the Year with the Navy Midshipmen (104) minus the points versus the Army West Point Black Knights (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (102) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (101). Atlanta (7-5) faces a must-win situation as they find themselves outside the NFC Playoff picture after their 14-9 upset loss as a 2-point favorite to Minnesota on Sunday. But this Falcons team also had a 7-5 record at this point last season — and they, of course, went on to play in the Super Bowl. A tough strength of schedule has contributed to their disappointing results so far relative to their sky-high expectations. Atlanta has four NFC South opponents remaining to close out their schedule — so they still likely control their own destiny. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against NFC opponents — and they have also covered the point spread in five of their last seven games against fellow NFC South foes. Furthermore, the Falcons have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of December. And in their last 7 appearances on Thursday Night Football, Atlanta has covered the point spread in 6 of these games.

New Orleans (9-3) bounced-back from their 26-20 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams by defeating the Panthers last Sunday by a 31-21 score. The Saints have covered the point spread in ten of their last twelve games after covering that 5.5-point spread against Carolina — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in at least six or seven of their last eight games. But there are some areas of concern for this team underneath their great run after dropping their first two games. Over their last three games, New Orleans has allowed 78 combined points as they are surrendering 26.0 PPG over that stretch. This Saints defense is middling against the run as they are 17th in the league by allowing their opponents to average 112.8 rushing YPG. The Falcons have a healthy Devonta Freeman back to join with Tevin Coleman in the backfield which should be able to exploit this Saints’ run defense. Furthermore, New Orleans has benefited from a favorable schedule since losing their first two games. While two games with Carolina were a challenge, they got to face the Packers with our Aaron Rodgers and the Lions completely beat up on both sides of the football along with non-playoff teams like Miami, Chicago, Tampa Bay, Buffalo and Washington. Lastly, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games played on Thursday Night Football. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Atlanta Falcons (102) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (379) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (380). Pittsburgh (9-2) has won six straight games with their 31-28 win over Green Bay last Sunday night as a big 14-point favorite. The Steelers now face a divisional rival in the Bengals that they defeated back on October 22nd. And while Cincinnati will be playing with revenge on their minds, Pittsburgh has won thirteen of their last fifteen trips to Cincinnati while scoring 26 PPG with Ben Roethlisberger starting under center. Furthermore, the Steelers are a whopping 16-3-2 ATS in their last 21 games in Cincinnati against the Bengals. Expect a big game from Pittsburgh as they get a chance to redeem themselves on national television after almost getting upset on national TV last week. The are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. And while the Steelers offense did generate 462 yards of offense last week, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards. Furthermore, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games in the month of December.

Cincinnati (5-6) has won two straight games with their 30-16 win over Cleveland as a 7.5-point favorite last week. The Bengals cranked up their ground game by rushing for 152 yards against the Browns defense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Cincy will have a difficult time coming close to replicating that rushing effort against this Steelers defense that is 6th in the NFL by holding opponents to just 96.0 rushing YPG. Cincinnati allowed 169 rushing yards against Cleveland — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last contest. Over their last six games, the Bengals are allowing their opponents average a whopping 146.2 rushing YPG. Lastly, Cincinnati is just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers (379) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (380). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (378) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (377). Seattle (7-4) will be a home underdog for just the first time in five seasons tonight. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 home games when getting 3.5 to 7 points. Seattle enters this game coming off their 24-13 win in San Francisco last week as a 7-point favorite. The Seahawks are on the outside looking in when it comes to the NFC playoff picture — so this is a game they really need to win. While they battered with injuries, this is still a veteran team with plenty of playoff savvy led by quarterback Russell Wilson. Seattle is 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games in the month of December.

Philadelphia (10-1) has now won nine straight games with their 31-3 victory over the Bears last week. The Eagles are certainly the toast of the NFL right now while ranking number one in most Power Rankings. But they have also benefited from a sweetheart schedule. Their last four opponents of Chicago, San Francisco, Dallas and Denver have a combined 12-32 record this season. Their best win this season was probably their 28-23 win at Carolina — and that is nice accomplishment but I am just not ready to book the hotel rooms for this team for the Super Bowl just yet. Seven of their first eleven games have been at home — so this is just their fifth game in a hostile environment. When playing on field turf as opposed to grass, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games. Philadelphia has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Seahawks. Together, these team trends produce our specific 46-18-1 ATS combined angle for this situation. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (378) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (377). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (370) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (369). New Orleans (8-3) looks to bounce-back from their 26-20 loss at Los Angeles agains the Rams last Sunday. The Saints’ defense surrendered 415 yards in that contest — but they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The defense should be better this week with rookie Marcus Lattimore practicing this week and likely to take the field after missing last week. Now New Orleans returns home to the Big Easy where they have covered the point spread in a decisive 22 of their last 27 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against NFC opponents — and this includes covering the spread in four straight games against NFC South foes.

Carolina (8-3) has won four straight games with their 35-27 win in New York against the Jets last week. The Panthers defense did give up 391 yards in that contest as Carolina was actually outgained by 92 yards. Carolina is just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing at least 350 yards and they will be without defensive lineman Charles Johnson for tonight’s contest as he has been suspended by the league. The Panthers have scored 45 and 35 points in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in two straight games. Carolina has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in the month of December. Furthermore, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played in a dome. Lastly, while Carolina is looking to avenge a 34-13 loss to the Saints back on September 24th despite being a 5-point home favorite, they have then failed to cove the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when looking to avenge an upset loss to their opponents. 20* NFL Carolina-New Orleans Fox-TV Special with the New Orleans Saints (370) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (369). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (374) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (373). Los Angeles (8-3) has won five of their last six games with their 26-20 win over the Saints last week. The Rams generated 415 yards of offense in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now Los Angeles goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow NFC West opponents. Furthermore, LA has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in the month of December. Additionally, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record.

Arizona (5-6) enters this game coming off their 27-24 upset win over Jacksonville last week as a 6-point underdog. The Cardinals dominated this game in terms of yardage as they outgained the Jaguars by +125 yards due to a stifling defense that held Jacksonville to only 219 yards of offense. QB Blaine Gabbert played very well as he completed 22 of 38 passes for 241 yards with a two touchdowns. Arizona has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games in the month of December. Additionally, the Cardinals are looking to avenge a 33-0 loss to the Rams from their first meeting in London back on October 22nd. Arizona has covered the point spread in a decisive 40 of their last 63 games when playing with same-season revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when looking to avenge a loss where they did not score more than two touchdowns. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Arizona Cardinals (374) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (373). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (371) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (372). Los Angeles (5-6) seems to be everyone’s sleeper team in the AFC after winning their fifth game over their last seven games with their 28-6 win in Dallas back on Thanksgiving. But it is true that a team cannot be a “sleeper” if almost everyone go Woke on them. I still remember a Philip Rivers team that has blown eight 4th quarter leads since the 2015 season — so I do not consider them reliable double-digit favorites even against the lowly Browns. The Chargers held the Cowboys to just 168 yards in that last game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing no more than 250 yards in their last game. Now Los Angeles returns home to Stub Hub Stadium where they hold zero home advantage in an empty building. As it is, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And while the LA defense has been good at times this season, they still rank last in the league by allowing 133.5 rushing YPG. Furthermore, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of December.

Cleveland (0-11) showed some encouraging signs last week despite losing in Cincinnati by a 30-16 score. They were only outgained by 44 net yards which usually keeps teams within a touchdown or so margin of their opponents. They also won the first down battle so the biggest problem for the Browns was giving up big plays. Rookie quarterback had one of his best days in the NFL by completing 18 of 31 passes for 268 yards with no interceptions while adding 39 rushing yards with a touchdown. Kizer does get wide receiver Josh Gordon as a dynamic weapon at wide receiver — and it does sound like he has turned his life around. Head coach Hue Jackson has drawn up some plays to take advantage of Gordon’s great talent. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against the Chargers. Together, these team trends produce our specific 40-11 ATS combined angle for this situation. Lastly, underdogs getting more than 10 points who have lost at least seven straight NFL games now facing an opponent that has won at least two straight games have then covered the point spread in 23 of the last 30 situations where these conditions applied. 10* NFL Big Dog Surprise with the Cleveland Browns (371) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (372). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (367) minus the points versus the New York Jets (368). Kansas City (6-5) has lost five of their last six games with their 16-10 loss at home to Buffalo last week despite being an 8.5-point favorite. The Chiefs were practically anointed as the Super Bowl Champions early in the season — and now they are being left for dead during this current swoon. The answer is somewhere in the middle for this team regarding what are reasonable expectations. The offense is struggling under QB Alex Smith — but the problems are not really his fault under closer analysis. In that loss to the Bills last week, Kansas City receivers dropped four catchable balls in their first six drives while offensive players blew assignments and committed penalties. Quite simply, the Chiefs need to decrease their mental mistakes — which they can do this week. KC has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. And in their last 12 games on the road, Kansas City has covered the point spread in 9 of these games. Furthermore, these Chiefs are road warriors that have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games as the favorite. One last reason for optimism for this team: their Darrelle Revis Era starts this afternoon with their recently signed cornerback not only starting but assigned as one of Andy Reid’s captain’s for this game.

New York (4-7) has lost five of their last six games with their 35-27 loss to Carolina last week. The Jets have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. New York has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing at least three of their last four games. QB Josh McCown did complete 19 of 36 passes for 307 yards against the Panthers defense last week — but they are then 5-15-3 ATS in their last 23 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Lastly, in their last 8 games during Week 10 through 13 of the regular season, Carolina has failed to cover the point spread 6 times. Together, these team trends produce our specific 80-24-3 ATS combined angle for this situation. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (367) minus the points versus the New York Jets (368). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (362) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (361). Tennessee (7-4) enters this game coming off a 20-16 win in Indianapolis last week. The Titans defense flexed their muscles by holding the Colts to just 254 total yards while sacking Indy QB Jacoby Brissett eight times. Now this team returns home where their QB Marcus Mariota has won eight of his last ten starts. The Titans have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. This team will have something to prove this week as they look to avenge a rough 57-14 loss at Houston back on October 1st. The Texans’ DeShaun Watson did most of the damage on offense in that game but he is now lost for the season with his ACL injury. The home team has covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams. And in the Titans last 4 games when avenging a loss by at least four touchdowns against their opponents, Tennessee has covered the point spread in 3 of those occasions.

Houston (4-7) has lost five of their last seven games with their 23-16 loss at Baltimore on Monday as a 7.5-point underdog. The Texans now stay on the road for the second straight week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. QB Tom Savage was serviceable last week by completing 22 of 37 passes for 252 yards — but he threw two interceptions without tossing a touchdown pass against the Ravens. Savage misses wide receiver Will Fuller who serves as a nice complement to take pressure of DeAndre Hopkins. Additionally, Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC South opponents. Together, these team trends produce our specific 22-5 ATS combined angle for this situation. 10* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Tennessee Titans (362) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (361). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (356) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (355). Atlanta (7-4) has won three straight games with their 34-20 win over Tampa Bay last week. The Falcons offense is starting to hum again like it did last season as they racked up 516 yards of offense against the Buccaneers defense. Over his last five starts, QB Matt Ryan has a 9:2 touchdown to interception ratio while generating a QB Rating over 107. He completed 26 of 35 passes for 317 yards with a TD pass last week — and Atlanta has then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, the Falcons have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow NFC opponents. And in their last 6 games in the month of December, Atlanta has covered the point spread 5 times.

Minnesota (9-2) has won seven straight games while covering point spread expectations in six straight contests after their 30-23 win at Detroit back on Thanksgiving. This might be the stumbling block for this team to see their winning streak snapped. The Vikings held the Lions to just 53 rushing yards in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. On offense, QB Case Keenum led an offense that generated 408 yards against the Detroit defense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 52 road games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. While Keenum has been a pleasant surprise, he does not seem capable to outduel Ryan playing in his house if it comes down to that in the 4th quarter. He is also missing his starting right tackle Mike Remmers who is out due to the concussion protocol. Furthermore, the Vikings have an issue with their place kicker Kai Forbath who has already missed five extra points this season — so he is not particularly reliable if this is a close game. Lastly, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after winning at least six straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in six straight games. 10* NFL Minnesota-Atlanta Fox-TV Special with the Atlanta Falcons (356) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (355). Best of luck for us — Frank.