This line has been adjusted here a ton as if they game were the beginning of the year it would have been around 17.  Yes, USC has looked horrible and there are a ton of questions right now.  Colorado is a very bad football team.  They barely had over 100 yards vs Minnesota.  They were blown out @ ASU last game.  The talent gap is wide here and I trust USC to bounce back just like they did after the ugly Stanford loss

I like the Badgers here quite a bit here as the betting public will be all over Michigan.  The Badgers game last week was very close in fact they had the lead going into the 4th.  the game really flipped when ND returned a kick for TD.  Mertz doesn't look good I know but has Michigan really impressed you with the schedule they have played?  Badgers win by 6.

I like the buy low spot here with the Gophers.  This team is coming off their worst loss in the PJ Fleck era losing to Bowling Green as a 31 point favorite.  Well, now Purdue is favored and they dont deserve to be.  This Purdue offense is very very bad scoring just 13 points each the last two games.  Gophers will control the game on the ground in a great bounce back spot and I expect them to win outright

Everyone and I mean everyone will be all over Iowa tonight.  I mean the #5 ranked team in the country only laying 3.5 on the road against an average team yup it's a lock.  I think people are ignoring that Maryland beat a very good WVU team.  Also Iowa has a huge look ahead game with Penn St coming to town and there is a lot of talk about gamely being there for that one.  I don't trust this Iowa offense at all as they are flat out horrible. Terps win this game outright

I like the Rams here in this game.  Everyone will be all over the Bucs here in this game especially with Brady laying a short number.  What the Rams do really well is throw the ball and where the Bucs are very weak is their secondary.  The difference will be the Rams pass rush here to put some pressure on Brady.  Bucs will be without Brown at WR also.

We have a unique one here.  First, the Broncos were -3 @ Giants then -7 @ Jags.  Yes, they won and covered both of those games.  Well now they are favored by 10.5 vs the Jets.  I mean are the Jets Jags and Giants any different and if so more than 3?  I dont think so.  Clearly this is inflated big time here.  The Broncos have key inures losing Jewell and Chubb here two stud LB's.  Denver also isn't high scoring so I think 21-13 type of win

I like Washington here.  Yes, their defense hasnt played up to par so far based on what most thought.  I still believe they are a good unit and the fact that Buffalo is so pass happy make me think that DL just pushes their ears back and go all game long. The Bills game last week was very misleading despite winning 35-0. Josh Allen hasnt looked the part at all so far this season.  Simply too many points for this Bills team to be laying

I wil take the Saints here as I dont think the Patriots deserve to be a FG favorite.  I know this will be the Saints third straight road game.  The Patriots lost to the Dolphins and beat a Jets team who Wilson handed it to them throwing 4 picks.  The Patriots defense might be really good who knows but facing Tua and Wilson a rookie QB isn't the same as Jamies who can move the ball down field.  

Do I wish the Chiefs would have still won Sunday night against the Ravens...yes.  I do like the Chargers here though and it's pretty simple.  First, this is a division dog and this early I the season this angle has been extremely profitable over the years.  Also the Chargers can move the ball with Herbert against what looks like so far easily the worst defense in the whole league.  If this does hold up any team with an above average offense getting more than 6 points is a play vs the Chiefs.  

I love Western Kentucky here in this game.  This is literally like the perfect spot that you look for with a team especially catching this many points.  Indiana is off a huge game over Cincy in which they blew it but now have Penn St on deck.  Oh and WKU is coming off their bye week as well and you can guarantee they have this one circled and its a night game! 

I like the Huskers here in this game.  So ever since the first game they lost vs Illinois which was misleading this team has covered the next and still aren't getting credit.  Heres the thing though that their defense is flying around and Sparty is so one dimensional running the ball I think Nebraska can really shut them down.  Huskers put up nearly 400 yards of offense on the Sooners is that bad?  I also think last week Sparty benefitted from 4 turnovers and eventually Miami just throw in the towel late as they knew they couldn't overcome. This would make a ML play also

I will take Illinois here and all the points.  I think this is a gift.  First, I believe Nebraska is better than Purdue and we are getting more points here now than when did when Illinois beat Nebraska.  Also Illinois returned their starting QB and they nearly beat Maryland last Friday only losing by 3.  Purdue off a big time game against ND I could see them being flat here.  I like Illinois

Iowa was extremely lucky last week to get the cover by half a point.  I wasn't on the game but Kent St was driving and fumbled at the 1 yard line into the end zone and Iowa recovered.  That would have made the game 14-16 late in the third.  Kent St never recovered from that at all.  I also love Iowa has the Big Ten schedule on deck here and I think this is a pretty blah game for them just to get through.  Colorado St is coming off a huge win also winning @ Toledo last game.  I love back big dogs that are playing confident.

This is one of those sneaky under the rdar rivalry games as campuses are less than an hour apart here.  Yes, TCU is big brother but this game means more to SMU. SMU is 11th in the country in scoring offense right now.  Also both defense are off to a good start holding opponents to each under 20 ppg.  TCU is off their bye but the most important thing here is that they have their big brother on deck in Texas.  I think both of these teams are equal so give me all the points.

I'm going to lay it here with LSU.  I think the healthier this team gets clearly the better they will be and evidence was last weekend vs Central Michigan.  Well you ask what's so impressive about that?  They dominated that game it was a a big number to lay.  I also haven't been a fan of Miss St and they lost @ Memphis last week.  I think we are still getting a super cheap price here on LSU since the loss @ UCLA.

I didn't get the best of the number but I still the Chargers are worth it here.  Dallas had every chance vs the Bucs to win that game being +3 in turnovers.  Their offense was impressive yes but also the Bucs secondary is by far their worst part of the team.  The Cowboys now suffered a huge blow to an already bad defense in losing Lawrence their DE who is a stud.  Herbert should have a field day again this bad D and I see them covering fairly easily.

I will take the Vikings here this week.  First, the Cardinals go from a 3 point dog to the Titans and now a 3.5 point favorite vs the Cards.  Which team is better?  To me the Vikings are clearly better than the Titans but yet the Cardinals are laying more than a FG?  The line is way off here and I think in large part because of the Vikings loss to the Bengals.  The Titans secondary is very very bad this matchup favors the Vikings. 

Last week was line was available at -8.  Now, the line has passed several key numbers and shot up to 13.  The Falcons fall into a crazy dog role here after being favored by 3.5 last week.  I know the Bucs have extra time but these teams are familiar with each other being in the same division.  I also wasn't impressed with the Bucs secondary against Dallas as Dak and company lit them up.  They also lost a starter now back there as well.  This is a classic overreaction to me grab the points.

I really like the Panthers here this weekend getting 3.5.  The Panthers last week didn't do anything sexy but simply took are of business against a bad Jets team.  They were in full control of that game as the Jets scored both touchdowns in the 2nd half.  The Saints will be a sexy pick here in large part because of the blowout win over the Packers.  While that win was good yes I'm just not sure they deserve to be laying 3.5 on the road. 

I like the Bears here.  The Bears actually impressed me Sunday night against the Rams.  They ran the ball for 135 yard against a very good Rams DL.  With their success on the ground there they won't have an issue here against the Bengals.  I also believe the Bengals will be a sexy underdog pick here since they beat the Vikings in OT.  I'm not ready to crown the Bengals here at all as they have much more to prove.  

I will happily take the Eagles here.  I know the Eagles beat a probably below average team in the Falcons but they really dominated the game.  The Niners did control the game against the Lions but I think the injuries for the Niners will play a part.  They have cluster injuries to the RB's and just lost their best CB in Verrett.  The Eagles have a great and OL and DL and they are healthy this season.  

Yes, I know plug your nose but this line is a crazy overreaction to week 1.  Last week the Broncos were favored by 2.5 in this game and now it's up to 6?!  The Jags looked bad yes but wow really the Broncos beating the Giants is that impressive? I expect major improvement here from the Jags.  Also Broncos lost a huge weapon in Jeudy their WR.  

This probably square and I know the line has gone up a little from 3.5 or 4 from the preseason.  I just think it is warranted though.  Penn St was in a tough spot last week coming off a huge road win @ Wisky week 1 but they really answered the call.  They blew out a Ball St team who is a very good MAC team and the defense here is the real deal.  Auburn to me has played tow cupcakes and put up a ton of points.  Does that impress you?  It's a white out for Penn St and I love this defense 

Wrong team is favored here in this game.  I was against Miss St in both games so far and have went 1-1.  They were extremely lucky to have won week 1 against La Tech and they were favored by 23.  They won the turnover battle last week and that played a large part of them beating NC St.  This Memphis team especially on offense will have no issue moving the ball on this weak Leach defense.  Grab this now

I am just very surprised here by this line.  So Wyoming last week was -6.5 at Northern Illinois and they were projected to be one of the worst teams in the MAC this season.  They snuck away late and won by 7.  Now they are favored granted at home but is there an advantage at home?  Ball St most had as a top 3 team in the MAC and I think them getting blown out at Penn St is playing a part of this.  Too many points I will take Ball St.

I will gladly take all the points here in this game.  Yes, Mama blew the doors of Miami Fla and looked impressive but as we have found out the ACC is just flat out bad and I'm not putting much into that game.  Florida has had a couple easy ones here early on looking ahead to this game here.  I think the key number here for Florida is 20. If they can get there which I believe they do then they will cover this game.  First true road test for Jones lets see how he handles it in a very tough environment. 

I really think this line climbs during the week so grab it now.  USC laid an horrible egg last week losing to Stanford as 17 point favorites.  That lead to the firing of their head coach Clay Helton which I think is now a positive and that will motivate the kids to play hard this week.  Washington St isn't a good team at all.  Wazzu lost to a horrible Utah St team as 18 point favorites in week 1 and Portland St they beat by 20 but didn't cover the -31.  

I fully expect sharp money to come in here on Florida St.  This is most defiently an all out game for Norvell and his team.  They simply have to win this game or he will be fired.  I also think the fact that Wake Forest isn't favored by more tells you exactly what the books are thinking.  They don't wanna give you the 6.  FSU has the better athletes and that doesn't always matter clearly but for this circle the wagon game here I will back them.

I really like West Virginia here in this game.  Va Tech is getting a ton of respect because of their win over high franked UNC in week 1.  It became very clear that the Tarheels are very over ranked and for that part the ACC clearly is.  West Virginia had a bye last week after dropping week 1 to Maryland.  They were actually in control of that game despite having 4 turnovers to the Terps 0 and only lost by 7.  I think that says a lot by how much WVU is improved this season.  Also worth mentioning that everyone will be on Va Tech because they are ranked. 

I will gladly take the Washington Football team here in this game.  So Fitzgerald is out of this game and it is always tough to throw a back up in then and get things going.  However Washington had their fair share of chances but literally couldn't get stop on defense and gave up a huge 3rd and 14 that gave the Chargers a big drive.  The Giants are horrible and literally IMO are top 5 worst team in the league.  The Washington Defense here will be the difference because you can rely on them to cause a few turnovers with Danny dimes at QB

I will take the Browns here who has revenge on their mind after losing to the Chiefs last season in the playoffs.  The Chiefs are great and Mahomes is everything you want no doubt.  I just think the Chiefs OL and their lack there of chemistry here vs a very good D line in the Browns.  Browns have weapon across the board and I just think they can have long drives and keep Mahomes in company off the field which is the key here to beat them.  

I will take the Steelers here getting all these points.  I think the Steelers are very undervalued here with all the weapons they have on offense and they do have a deathly roster.  I also think the Bilss are the most overrated team in league right now.  Allen has his coming out party last year but can he back it up?  I think the Bills will be good but are they really going to blow out a playoff caliber team here week 1?  I dont think so

I like the Vikings here on a bounce back season.  The Vikings last year were banged up and banged up bad especially on D.  I have zero doubts about them bouncing back.  This team has Cook, Jefferson & Theilin and there is nothing not to love about them.  I do love Burrow going forward but they are getting a lot of respect and I do think it will take Burrow some time to get his feet under him following the surgery from last season.  

I'm going to take the Cardinals here.  I think they have improved their defense and while it may not be great per say I defiantly believe it's better.  I also think the betting public will love the Titans here as everyone knows the Julio trade by now.  The thing is though that the Titans secondary IMO is just flat out bad and I fully expect Murray to carve them up big time.  

So last week this line was -1.5 for Michigan and now since the Huskies lost to Montana and looked really bad we are getting some crazy value.  Michigan blows out directional Michigan and now gets a lot of love.  I just need to more from Harbaugh in these types of games.  I love the overreaction to these types of games from 1 week.  The total is very low here also and I lean to the under which I think the under and the dog are correlated. 

I am high on this NC St team.  I had them last week -18 in a winner over South Florida as they skunked them 45-0.  Yes, USF is a bad team I know but the. fact they held a. shutout says a lot to me.  Also Miss St. was one of the luckiest teams and I went against them taking La Tech. +23 and they only lost by 1.  La Tech let a double digit lead blow against Miss St in the 4th.  I also love the extra time off here for NC St.  

I will lay the number here with Texas.  I was beyond impressed with Texas last week facing a very good Rajun Cajun team who had a lot of hyper surrounding them and they returned a lot of players.  Texas won by 20 and dominated from the start of the game.  I really believe Sark is going to have a huge impact on this team and culture.  Arkansas was very misleading as they were tied 17-17 heading into the 4th but yet covered the 19 as they scored 21 in the 4th. Jefferson their QB was horrible 12/21 against a Rice team.  Arkansas doesn't have much of an home field advantage and I like Texas to get the job done.

I like App St here in this game.  This team is very underrated and I think we are getting really good value here.  I also think this is a very tough spot for Miami who is coming off Bama and this game will be easy to over look fro them.   I definitely dont think that Miami. will be blowing this veteran group out.  App St is a solid program and one thing is for sure here that you know they have this game circled.

Eastern Mich here retunes 10 starts on offense and while the Badgers defense is very good their offense really struggles.  Wisky has no motivation here to blow out this team even after losing to Penn St.  They also have a huge game next vs Notre Dame so I expect a pretty vanilla game plan.  Hutchinson the QB for EMU is a go this weekend and give me just two scores here and I believe they cover this number

I love the Cyclones here this weekend.  All summer long oddsmakers had this game at 7 and now based on 1 game they are dropping this line by 3!  Iowa St is better on both sides of the ball and plus they have the better QB here in Purdy.  Also Iowa was pretty lucky last week as they had two pick sixes in the first half.  Petras their QB hasn't improved a lick and I think in a hostile environment he folds.  

I wil take Miami Oh here. The gophers lost their best RB for the season against Ohio St and I think that is a big loss as he is their best player.  Also the Gophers love to run the ball and that means the clock will run also.  Miami Oh will score as the gophers defense isn't world beaters.  I will take all these points here

Illinois is still getting a little respect from beating Nebraska.  However, if you did watch that game it was misleading and there were a couple things that happened they really flipped the game in favor of Illinois.  To me last week again UTSA they showed their true colors giving up 497 yards.  I trust Bronco Mendenhall here to get it done.  Last week Virgnia played horrible William and Mary I know but they took care of business winning 43-0

I love both of these teams and I really like Ulagalelei at Clemson for QB but Clemson did lose a lot. on offense and replacing Lawrence isn't going to be an easy task at all.   I think both of these teams are equal here so with this being a neutral field game I think Georgia and the points here have a ton of value.  Georgia did lose some pieces on D and they were ranked #1 against the rush last season.  Smart has had great recruiting classes so I'm not so worried about guys stepping up and replacing them.  I am also putting a lot of trust in QB JT Daniels here as well.  

So yes we have Conference USA team here in LA Tech against an SEC school and I think most will give Miss St the edge but this team is probably bottom 3 in the SEC.  They had 3 regular season wins over LSU Vandy and Missouri last year.  Leach is trying to get his style going but I think that's tough in this league as you need some sort of balance.  Also their defense especially in the passing game was horrible ranking 105th in the country.  

In regarding La Tech here I love that they return 10 defensive starters.  When backing teams from outside the power 5 you need to look at the experience and La Tech fits that here.  I also love we dont really need this to be a close game.  Just keep it within 3 TD's here and we are good.  I think they do that easily. 

I'm very high on this Missouri team this season and they are playing a bottom team in the MAC.  I think this is a great spot here to back a team that isn't getting much love but will be explosive on offense.  

Give me Indiana and the hook here in a game I think both teams are equal.  The Hoosiers season last year was for real and they return 17 starters from that team.  Their only two losses were Ohio St by 7 and Ole Miss by 6.  Penix their QB is definitely one to keep an eye on.  

Iowa here has one of the worst QB's in the Big Ten in Petras and so much of their season will be riding on him. They also had big shoes to fill on the DL which is a. big question mark right now.   They only have 13 starts coming back which isn't much at all considering most teams have at least 16 with everyone getting a free year.  I think Iowa is a play against until Petras the QB shows any hope.

I dont see this number hitting 6 because it will disappear quickly.  Penn St just couldn't get out of their own way last season starting 0-5.  However, though give them some credit for winning their last 4 when it could have been easy to really pack it in.  Clifford their QB is back and I fully expect big improvement from him.  Im not taking anything away from Wisconsin last year but their wins were Illinois Michigan Minnesota in OT and Wake Forest in the bowl game.  Nothing to special there but they are laying 5.5?  Maybe they are that good but I need to see it

I'm really high on this NC St team.  I think they are the 2nd best team in the Atlantic behind Clemson obviously.  Last year this team went 8-4 and two of those losses were by 2 and 3 points.  They were right there for a double digit win season.  they return 17 starters which is exactly what we are looking for following a good season.  They dont get much love or attention.  South Florida on the other hand is the worst team I the AAC and its not close.  Both offense and defense last year ranked in the 90's.  They had one win and it was the Citadel.  NC St shouldn't have an issue scoring 35+ here

First play of the season will be on the Cornhuskers here.  There is no doubt with everything that is surrounding this team that Frost will be looking to make a statement and I think he does it in a big way.  Illinois just doesn't have anyone and the talent gap here is huge.  Yes, I know it didn't matter last year but I think we see major improvements with Martinez at QB and this Nebraska team is one to watch covering the number this season.  Big Red for the first win this season!

I love the Chiefs here in the Super Bowl.  Mahomes is just something really special and yes I know it's hard to repeat I just don't see how the Bucs can slow them down.  I will give Brady and the Bucs credit for getting here as they had to do so with 3 straight road games.  Brady if you're being honest though hasn't looked great by any stretch though.  Also these teams already met in the regular season in Tampa btw where the Super Bowl is being played and KC had their way with them.  So the final score was 27-24 but the Chiefs were up 27-3 and it felt they really just let up as they had the game in hand.  Tampa scored 2 meaningless TD's in the fourth and that's how they covered. 

We are locking this in early.  I absolutely the Packers here in this game.  Tampa was extremely lucky if you. watched any. part of the Saints game.  The turnovers left Brady with a short field and it was very misleading.  Not many times in the NFL do you see a team -4 in turnovers with still a chance to win.  Tampa and Brady dont impress me at all.  Rodgers brings something totally different to the table here this week.  The Packers defense is good enough here IMO to keep Brady and the offense in check.  They key in fact will be slowing down the running game which opens everything up for them.  I love the Packers here!!!

I just love the Saints here in this game.  Yes people will say its hard to beat a team 3 games in a row  and I understand it but its not like these series were close.  Yes, they were a while ago but were you really impressed with the Bucs last week?  I mean Washington signed a QB off the street and nearly won the game.  The Bucs defense has issues and that was shown last week.  Saints are now fully healthy which they haven't been all season.  I think we are getting a discount here. 

I will take the Packers here today.  I think too much hyper is being made from the Rams and their defense.  Yes, I know Ramsey is a stud and probably will hold Adams in check.  The only way to Rams can win or hang around is if it's low scoring and I dont that with how explosive this Packers team is.  Rams do have injury issues with Donald and Kupp who are obviously huge names to both sides of the ball.  Pack pull away here

I'm taking the Buckeyes here who I believe have a huge ship on their shoulder.  I know Bama is extremely good I'm not taking anything away from them.  I just was so impressed with Fields and company against a very good Clemson team.  There was zero doubt to who the better team was on the field that night.  I will gladly take more than a TD here as I clearly see a close game.

I think we are seeing a major overreaction in the line here.  This was Steelers favored by 3.5 and. now it's 6. because of the coaching situation.  While its not ideal I get it, but you dont think the Browns would love nothing more here?  Also people are looking at last week and thinking the Steelers rested a bunch of guys and still almost beat the Browns.  Look the Browns were favored by nearly double digits and now Pitt is favored by 6?  Give me the Browns 

I love the. Ravens in a great revenge spot from last season.  Yes, I know the narrative here is that Lamar hasn't won a playoff game but I like the way the Ravens are trending here winning 5 straight and covering 6 straight.  Also I love the matchup for Lamar as the Titans have a horrible defense and he should have a hay day moving the ball.  Titans will have to. get out of their game plan which is pound Henry and I dont think that bold well.

I just have a funny feeling here in this game.  Is there a team that is more excited or motivated to be in the playoffs than Washington?  This Washington defense is nasty and I think they will cause Brady a ton of problems and force him to make some bad throws.  Alex Smith is 5-1 as a starter so that's a plus and they are catching more than a TD? The Bucs are just 4-4 ATS on the road and sure they are 5-2 SU their last 7 but all 5 wins against non  playofff teams and. 2 losses against playoff teams.

Something is wrong with this Seahawks team you can't ignore it.  They have only scored over 30 points once in the last 8 games and that was against the Jets.  I also trust Mcvay and company here and this line smells as we see a backup QB against a former Super Bowl winner only getting a FG.  the betting public will be all over the Seahawks here.  To me it's all about the defense here and with that you have to take the Rams. 

I'm going to take the Colts here in this game.  Dont get me wrong I like what Buffalo has done and they deserve credit, however now they are favored by 6.5 in a playoff game and this it totally different waters.  Both defenses are actually pretty similar but numbers. wise the edge belongs to the Colts. Rivers has also been in plenty of playoff games. so I trust the experience factor.  I'm not saying Colts win but I dont see a blowout 

Coming later 

Coming later

It seems like the Titans are getting a ton of love because Henry and crew have gone off the last couple games.  Well those games were against the Lions and Jags two teams who are clearly done for the year.  The main thing here is that the Packers are playing for the #1 overall seed and that means a huge deal to Rodgers and them.  The Titans defense is average at best and to me I dont see how they slow down Aaron and company. 

I get that Hurts has really provided a spark to this Eagles team especially with his legs but now al of the sudden they are laying points to a division rival who is also playing well?  The Cowboys have found new life here and now all of the sudden find themselves staring down the playoffs. Cowboys D is flying around making plays creating turnovers.  I think the wrong team is favored here. 

I will lay it with the Chargers.  There is no doubt the Chargers have been one of the most frustrating teams to watch in the league this season.  They are clearly so much better than their record indicates.  Throw in the fact that the Chargers blew a huge lead @ Denver in a very gross comeback victory I think will Ladd fuel to them here.  I thought this line would be 5 or so actually so will gladly lay the short price here 

The Football is now a public team as crazy as that it to say.  Honestly though with them starting Haskins there is no way I want anything to do with him. I know the line is reflecting that he is starting but give me Teddy as the dog here.  Sharp money has came in on Carolina moving this line down.  The Panthers have lost 3 straight games by a total of just 14 points.  They have been in every game.  I think they win this one outright here.

I think too much is being made of the Giants and what they have to play for.  They were in a great spot last week and failed to show against the Browns.  Jones is a big time question as well and it doesn't matter to me if he goes or not.  The Giants offense is struggling big time as they haven't scored over 20 points in each of the last 4 games.  Baltimore on the other hand is starting to click right now scoring 37,47,40 their last 3 games.  I think they put it on the Giants here. 

I will take the points here with the Raiders.  This Miami team does have a lot to play for yes but the love they are getting is simply too much here.  The look ahead line last week here was Raiders -2 and now it has flipped 5 points.  There is no reason for that big of adjustment here.  Raiders dont have a great defense but the Miami offense isn't exactly anything to brag about.  Carr is playing and I trust Gruden here not letting this team totally collapse down the stretch. 

I just dont understand this line at all.  We have a 3rd string QB starting for the Niners who are one of the most injured teams in the league that literally have nothing to play for and the Cardinals on the other hand have everything to play for.  Clearly this line doesn't make much sense as it should be higher.  Cards offense lead by Murray I think will have a field day while I see the Niners really struggling on the offensive end.

I just dont get the love for the Bucs.  This team quite frankly doesn't pass the eye test at all.  They were very lucky last week as the refs gave them a couple huge calls and yet they still couldn't pull away from the Vikings.  The Bucs are laying the same number the road as they were. last. week and this is a division rival.  Falcons would love. nothing more than to spoil the Bucs season.  I know Atlanta hasn't been great but they clearly better than their record indicates.  Also Jones their RB is out for the game as well 

There is zero reason right now for the Niners to be favored especially on the road.  They have had two great spots back to back and came up short big time.  The Niners season is now lost following those two bad losses hard to imagine where their head is.  I think all the injury issues as well is a huge concern.  The Cowboys here I will take my chances as they are. coming off a win on the road.  Dallas losing to Washington and Baltimore recently doesn't look quite so bad now either.  I think there is still some fight left in this team.  

I really like the Seahawks here in this spot for several reason.  First, the love for Washington is pretty high right now as they have won 4 straight games.  The thing is though Smith is banged up and probably won't play and Haskins is clearly a guy that no one trusts at all.  Seattle still can win their division and definitely wont be looking past this red hot team.  I really feel like we are getting a good discount here with them because of Washington's success.  

I will take the Texans here in this game.  Colts off a big road win over Raiders and Texans off an ugly loss vs Bears.  2 weeks ago though people are quick to forget that the Texans should have won the game outright if it wasn't for a fumble on 1st and goal inside the 5 yard line.  Texans get Cooks back at WR so that is a big help.  I think they still have a sour taste in their mouth from that game and this is too many points.  The Colts also missing some defensive players including Slay their best corner and Leonard their best all around player on defense who really makes them go.

I think this is a discount here with the Vikings.  Yes, they didn't cover last week but their kicker was 0-4 in the game which had a huge part to do with it.  Also the refs really cost them twice on crucial plays in the game giving the Bucs points both times.  Bears getting a lot of love for their performance last week.  I had them over the Texans but that game in an outlier as it was their best showing all season.  I like to fade teams off their best effort.  Vikings much better overall team 

I think everyone is falling in love with Bama and I get it.  However, this number is just absurd to me here as Florida has a ton of playmakers across the board.  This is the type of team that generally gives Saban fits.  I think Florida was clearly looking ahead last week as they laid an egg losing to LSU outright.  As a whole the offenses in the SEC are flat out terrible and especially the teams Bama has faced which has inflated their numbers.  I think Florida hangs around this team averages over 40 ppg they will score it will all come down to turnovers. 

I really like Denver here in this spot.  The Bills are going to be extremely popular here and are getting a little too much love for my liking right now.  Buffalo is off a huge home run win over Pitt and now a big travel spot.  This Denver team clearly hasn't quit at all on the season and it showed again last week with a nice road win as a dog.  I think they will be able to run the ball here muck it up a little.  I also think Bills D is overrated and I see Lock playing a very good game. 

So yes maybe this is just a bigger adjustment, but I dont think oddsmakers could have made this 13 or so either.  Let's face it Clemson with their backup QB had Notre Dame dead in the water before ND scored with less than a minute to take the game into OT and ultimately win in OT.  I'm not going against Dabo and Lawrence in a big time revenge game at all.  This defense will be flying and they have the best defensive coordinator in the country.  

Late Add

I'm going to lay it here with Ohio St.  Yes, this is a huge number but boy do the Buckeyes have all the motivation in the world.  I guarantee this team is pissed because all of the talk about them not deserving to be here and they are going to make a big statement to leave no doubt.  Northwestern has 1 good win and that was @ Iowa by 1.  Well how good is Iowa? extremely overrated as all their wins have came against teams with a losing record.  Ohio St large here

This is a revenge game for Oklahoma I get it.  Oklahoma definitely passes the eye test here recently especially on offense.  Iowa St has played this Oklahoma team very tough the last 3 seasons with clearly not as much talent.  Campbell is proven why he is such a great coach and his name will be mentioned all over the place.  Purdy and company are rolling as well and their defense is much better than Oklahoma.  This is also the first time in literally decades Iowa St has played for something like this.  I think they hang around and wouldn't be shocked if they won outright again 

I will take my chances here with Tennessee.  Yes, they have had a down year but I think they would love nothing more to play spoiler here.  I also thin A&M is being very over valued due to the fact they only have one loss and it's against Bama.  The Vols have covered the last two weeks showing me that that haven't gave up on the year.  

Coming Later 

This series for whatever reason has always been close.  I think the Lions are definitely live here.  They will get back Swift and Golliday who are crucial for this team.  Prior to the Packers covering earlier this season Detroit has covered every game going back to 2017.  This series is just close like mentioned and this is too many points.  Detroit can hang some points here now with Stafford and a healthier squad.  

I'm going against the grain here for sure with the Eagles.  Simple here for me as I think Hurts will provide a spark to this team in general.  Wentz has flat out put this team in horrible positions with all his turnovers.  I know the Saints D is good but I also wonder how much interest they have here with the Chiefs on deck.  Philly's D is underrated and Im still not blown away with Hill at  QB.   I like the Eagles to keep it close here

I will take the Chiefs here in this game.   I think the betting public will now be writing them off since they. haven't covered for over a month.  Yes, they have a huge game next week but with their red zone performance. last week I think they will get it right.  Miami has been on a hot run sure but most of that is because of their defense.  I don't see Mahomes giving them any gifts like they have been getting.  Miami has struggled on offense, look last week playing a horrible defense in Cincy and can't get to 20 points.  I think this is a statement game and the Chiefs are back in the hunt to claim the 1 seed for the AFC

I will take Denver here.  I think both of these teams are very equal and Carolina has been a favorite twice this season and both of those meeting they lost outright.  Carolina is dealing with players being out like McCaffrey, Samuel, Moore.  They are thin at RB and WR.  They are getting respect because of their bye week.  Denver I had last week vs the Chiefs and they covered.  The week before you throw out because they didn't have a QB.  But 2 games ago they beat the red hot Miami Dolphins.  I think this team is still playing hard.  

I think USC is a tad over valued here in this game.  They were very lucky to win the first two games of the season and their other 2 they had a huge turnover advantage which lead to bigger wins.  I'm not impressed with USC at all.  Chip Kelly is finally starting to turn this thing around.  They are 3-2 but 4-1 ATS.  Their two losses were to an undefeated Colorado team and a close loss @ Oregon by 3.  I think UCLA wins this game outright 

I will trust Leach and company here wanting to finish the season in his first year on a high note. Rogers this freshman QB for Miss St has been awesome since taking over for Costello.  5 TD's his last 3 games with zero INT's and a completion rating over 70% every game.  Auburn is off two big time games vs Alabama and Texas AM I think this is a great spot to back Miss St.

I'm on the Badgers here this weekend.  This is crazy to me how they were laying 14 against a very good Indiana team but now are a PK at Iowa?  I just think this Iowa team is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The teams they have beat all 5 of them have horrible losing records. They still have inconsistent QB play.  I think this is a great buy low spot on Wiskt as if this game were played a few weeks ago there is no doubt the Badgers are laying a TD or more here.  I will take Wisconsin.

We are seeing something crazy in college football with this Coastal Carolina team.  All they do is cover and I understand going against them has cost people a lot of money.  I have only been against them once but I really like the spot here.  Coastal last week added BYU to make ends meet in a weird scheduling spot and they were 10 point dogs and won outright but they were outgained in that game.  Too many points here I will take Troy 

I will take Missouri here as they seem to have found their stride.  They have won 5 of their last 6 games and their only loss was @ Florida and they were the same type of dog in that game but on the road.  That tells me this line is inflated here.  Missouri has really found success in the air recently and I believe that is where they can get in the Bulldogs defense here.  Georgia has only covered one game in their last 5.

A little too much love here on the Patriots.  So yes they embarrassed the Chargers but should we really upgrade them for that?  Cam is really struggling right now and lets face it the Patriots offense is going to struggle against maybe right now the best defense in the league.  I trust Mcvay and company here to get it done.  This team is looking to win their division so they have plenty of motivation.  

I like Denver here in this spot Sunday night.  First, I could make the case they they are the most motivated team in the league following what took place with with them and the league last week with their QB situation.  I think that really fires them up for this especially against a division rival.  Also worth noting last week when the Broncos faced the Saints with a WR at QB the line was just a couple more points than now.  Chiefs are clearly a public team and I would make the case this is a let down spot for them following two big road game vs Raiders and Tampa now with two big ones on deck with Miami and Saints.  The total here is also 50.5 which everyone will be betting the over giving me more confidence the books know the low score here providing extra value with Denver 

I like the Cardinals here as now they opinion of them has changed here.  The look ahead line here was a PK and now both teams lose but the Rams get the love and are favored by 3?  I'm not buying this type of reaction.  I think Murray is healthy this week and the Cardinals were pretty unlucky last week @ New England or else I think they are favored here.  This game matters to the Cardinals more here as both teams would have the same record if AZ won.  I know both teams are motivated but to me these teams are equal and I will take AZ

I will take the Browns here in this game.  The Browns are in a role I much prefer them in and that is as a dog.  I think the narrative here is that they are a overrated 8-3 team and while I do believe that I think the Titans though you could make the same case about.  Titans off a huge road division win.  Also the Browns bring in the best running game in the league and I fully think they can control this game.  Also what do the Titans love to do is run the ball as well making less possessions favoring the big dog here.  Browns get Garrett back and we all know the difference he makes on that DL.

So the Raiders here were flat out embarrassed last week scoring just 3 points and got blown out by the Falcons.  I think this is a great bounce back spot for them here as they are very much alive in the playoff race for the AFC.  The Jets were in a great spot last week getting Darnold back and facing a division rival but flat out laid an egg.  Raiders have been a much better road road team this season with a 4-2 record SU and ATS.  Raiders in a great spot and I think we do see the effort following the horrible performance last week

I like the Dolphins here really to put the hammer down the Cincy.  The Bengals had a kickoff return last week and a late one after Jones went out for the Giants.  The fact that they covered they are getting some respect.  I know book makers wouldn't make Dolphins a 2 touchdown favorite but I don't think we all know how bad this Cincy team is now.  Their season is shot and quite frankly you will see their lines get bigger and bigger.  

I'm taking the Colts here in this game.  I think they will be extra motivated here following an ugly loss to the Titans who clearly had revenge on their mind.  The Colts here have a great advantage of running the ball and also return players from the Covid list last week.  Texans lost some key players in Roby on defense but their biggest player outside of Watson in their WR Fueller.  He meant so much to that offense I dont think they are adjusting enough for his loss.  

This ASU team should be extremely hungry here as they have only played one game this season.  In that game they were impressive as they were double digit underdogs @USC and really should have won that game.  UCLA has covered 3 straight now and they are getting respect because of their great performance at Oregon.  I'm just strictly siding with the more motivated team here with the Sun Devils ready to play game number 2.

This is just too many points here in this game.  I think it's clearly inflated because Washington all. of the sudden is now ranked.  This team lost a ton but wins over Oregon St Arizona and Utah put them up.  I'm not buying it now with them laying this number.  They laid the some number against Arizona who is so bad.  Stanford was unfortunate in week 1 @ Oregon as their QB couldn't play and was a later scratch.  They played tough to Colorado who is vastly improved and got their first win last week @ Cal.  I think Stanford hangs around and dont be shocked if they win