Maybe this is a big time square play, but I simply can't back a team that just won a huge road over a ranked team but only scored 10 points in doing so.  Mind you, the Sun Devils were a 14 point dog in that game and now favored by over a TD against Colorado.  I also think another over reaction to that is since Colorado lost to Air Force last week.  ASU struggles on offense with the young QB.  I think the Buffs keep it close here

Coming Later

So we are seeing a 2-1 team on the road as a dog to a 0-3 team.  I actually think we will see some sharp money here late on this game.  So, I think we can give a pass to the Texas St in two games losing to Texas AM and last week vs SMU.  Let's look at the one competitive game they lost which they lost Wyoming as a 7 point dog.  They actually out played Wyoming big time in that one and was a misleading final. I think people are still remembering the fact that Georgia St went on the road and won @ Tennessee.  That is creating some value with Texas St here

Pretty simple handicap here for me in this game.  BYU is simply getting too much love for beating USC last week and I feel like that game was handed to them as BYU could barely escape in OT despite being +3 in turnovers.  Also looking back last week odds makers are saying that on a neutral field Washington and USC are nearly equal?  I'm not buying it at all.  I know this is the Huskies first game on the road, but last week their offense broke open and I think this is a very good spot for Washington who won't be over looking this game

We have no choice but to be impressed with what SMU has done so far.  They beat a very solid Arkansas St program and destroyed a good North Texas team.  This game clearly means more to the Mustangs here than it does to TCU.  SMU has a high powered offense going right now averaging over 40 ppg.  TCU beat a down Purdue team last week, but covered in doing so giving us some value here.  SMU is a better team than Purdue.  I wouldn't be surprised at all if SMU pulled the upset

Really like the Aggies here in this game.  I also think the betting public will be all over Auburn here.  The reason they will be is because they remember the week 1 gross come back win and cover over Oregon in a game they were completely outplayed.  The Aggies have a great home field advantage here in the 12th man and also this is will freshman QB Nix first true road game.  Texas AM for sure has this game circled with two losses to this Auburn team.  Aggies have the defense here and I think they cover this one fairly easily 

I'm not a believer here in the Titans at all and I think the wrong team is favored here.  First, I think we get a big time desperate performance here from the Jags as they are 0-2 and return home.  Minshew has been a great bright spot for the Jags and they should have won last week @ the Texans going for 2 and getting stopped at the half yard line.  Titans are simply getting a ton of respect because of the week 1 performance at the Browns, but the defense rose with touchdowns and that was a misleading final.  Their offense is no good here at all and I expect the jags to feast here.  They held a great Texans offense to 13.   Also the Titans were +2 in turnovers last week and still lost the game at home, that shows you how bad the offense is

I missed a good opener here with Tulane but will back them here in this spot.  I had the Green Wave in week 1 over FIU in an easy route.  Tulane is one of the most improved teams in the country and they are a tough option team to play against, but they actually have a good QB in McMillan.  

Houston is just in a very tough spot here coming off a game against Washington St and we all know their air raid style.  Now they have one week to prepare for the total opposite in Tulane.  Granted they are familiar to an extent but this is still tough to see total opposites in back to back weeks.  

Tulane has also played Auburn @ Auburn and held them to 24 points.  Tulane has a better defense then most think and they can contain King 

I just flat out think the wrong team is favored here in this game.  Odds makers are telling you if going by the lines last week that the Falcons would roughly be -2.5 at home over Minnesota.  Throw this Eagles line in the mix @ Atlanta and they are saying the Eagles would be -6 over the Vikings?  I'm not buying that at all.  The Eagles defense clearly has some issues as the Redskins with zero weapons torched them in the air with 380 yards by Keenum.  I simply think the line is completely off here.  Atlanta will bounce back here at home and put up some point on this Eagles team.  

Really like the Broncos here in this game.  The perfect storm happened on Monday night as they lost to the Raiders and everyone has the Raiders pegged as a bad team, but they actually looked pretty decent.  Denver had a hard time getting after the QB, but that won't be the case here in this game as we saw a Packer defense really get after Chicago.  The Bears are one of the most over hyped teams coming into the season and I am completely shocked they are favored by this given what we saw from them.  Now part of that I do realize is the fact Bears are on a longer week and the Broncos are on a shorter week, but I'm not worried.  This Broncos D will eat up Trubisky and company 

I really like the Bengals here and was on the right side of this move.  Last week the Bengals went into a tough place @ Seattle and took them down to the wire.  You can actually make the case that they were the better team out gaining them by over 200 yards, but the dreaded turnovers got the best of them losing that battle 3-1.  

The Niners weren't that impressive at all to me and benefited from Winston who still continues to throw picks.  The Niners had two touchdowns off 2 pick sixes.  You simply can't rely on that throughout the season in order to get things done.  I wasn't impresses at all bother offense either.  

I definitely think the betting public will want nothing to do with the Steelers here given the fact they looked awful on prime time.  This is easily a get right game for Pitt here and they will bounce back.  We saw how much Seattle gave up in the air to the Bengals and the Steelers have better weapons overall.  I also don't trust this Seattle team much away from home especially playing early on the east coast.  This is another line that will go up as the week goes on.

This to me is a huge overreaction here due to the fact that the Jags lost their QB Foles for quite some time now.  This is now giving us some serious value here with the Jags as the look ahead line here was +3 and now a full TD adjustment?  I was beyond impressed with backup QB Garner Minshew when he came in against the Chiefs and actually started 10/10.  The Texans will be on a short week now after the Monday game which I think they have a hangover from losing that tough game.  The Jags still have a tough defense and I expect them to play better against someone not named Mahomes 

I was on Nebraska last week and they blew that game which was gross after being up 17-0 at halftime and in total control.  I think this is the get right game here and just blow Northern Illinois out.  I love that it's a night game as well so the players will be pumped.  Frost knows the importance of the bounce back after that ugly loss.  I think they are catching Northern Illinois in a good spot here with them playing a back to back road game.  NIU is coming off a hard fought physical game against Utah in which they covered the 23.5 spread.  I just don't see them stopping Nebraska here and while most people will be down on them I think it's a great buy low spot

I just don't think Odds makers have adjusted enough here for Florida St.  Sure they played one good half against Boise but since then they have been just flat out terrible.  A large part of that is because of their defense.  Well, we know the Virginia defense is loaded and probably is 2nd best I the ACC outside of Clemson.  Blackmon isn't the answer the Notes had hoped for as they should have lost to La Monroe as 23 point favorites.  This is a night game in Virginia and I think they rise here and put a beat down on FSU.

I am just really surprised here by this crazy line movement.  First, the Game Of The Year lines had Iowa St -3 or -4 and the Cyclones played one game, I repeat one game this season and the line has flipped a full touchdown which is crazy and clearly a big time overreaction.  Also Iowa St dropped from the rankings while Iowa is 2-0 and have covered both games and coming off a shutout.  I'm not impressed by Iowa honestly and the best QB on the field is Purdy for Iowa St.  The Cyclones will be hungry here to end this little Iowa streak.  Iowa actually has some question marks with injuries on defense.  This will be the Hawkeyes first true test and I don't think they win and the wrong team is favored.

We have seen early so far how much the PAC 12 hasn't been quite that good.  I think that is the case here with the Sun Devils as well.  Their offense under a true freshman QB has been less than desirable.  They have played two cupcakes in Kent St and Sacramento St and have managed a whopping 49 total points.  I don't think they mustard up anything here against a very good Party defense that will be out for revenge from an ugly loss last season.  True Freshman first road game won't be an easy and I expect Sparty to create a few turnovers and jump on them early 

So far I'm really liking what the new coach Chris Klieman is showing at Kansas St.  Now, I know they haven't played anyone that may impress you but they have taken care of business in scoring 49 and 52 points in the first two games.  Also I like what the Wildcats are doing in the run game and I think they can expose Miss St there as they have gave up yards on the ground so far and have played weak teams as well.

The Bulldogs lost a ton from last season and even though they are 2-0 it is showing so far.  They had a very ugly win week 1 over La Layayette beating them by only 10 despite being +3 in turnovers.  They were also +3 in turnovers in game 2 which ultimately lead to them covering that game.  

The Wildcats have had one turnover so far and I believe they control the game here and also not to mention this is a nice revenge spot for Kansas St as well

I think this is way too many points here for Georgia.  We know the Bulldogs are a very good team, but this is now their 3rd week in a row playing a lower level team even though they played Candy week 1 and I doubt their interest level is too high here.  Arkansas St will sure be motivated here and are coming off a very dominate win over UNLV.  Another main reason here is that Georgia has a huge look ahead with Notre Dame coming to town next week

This game here will easily be a sharp/square divide.  Maryland is off to a great start right now but beating Howard and a bad Syracuse team isn't that great.  I actually had them last week in that win over Cuse.  Temple is more than a capable team here and have a defense that can contain the Terms.  I also think Temple will have this game circled here now that Maryland has came on the scene an they are also coming off a bye 

I like the spot here for this Wake Forest team.  Yes, UNC is riding high right now but following those those last two games and now playing their first true road game will be a tough task.  Also I can't believe I'm saying this but Wake has a better offense than both South Carolina and Miami.  Also UNC was extremely lucky against Miami completing that 4th and 17 or else the game is over.  I think this is the perfect slip up for Wake Forest here

With this line now now hitting 3 this is a big time overreaction here.  They are saying the Denver is nearly a double digit favorite @ Denver?  I'm not buying into that at all.  Sure, Oakland has had their distractions, but I think now that AB is gone this time will rise to the occasion and ball out tonight.  I think they win this game outright

I think the Steelers are being undervalued here.  Yes, they lost Brown but I think that was for the better of the team.  I know Tomlin has had his struggles against the Patriots but I think they can easily keep it within this number here.  There are a lot of questions with the Patriots team with the loss of Gronk this season and Edelman another year older.  Both teams have solid defenses and I think Big Ben will be playing with a chip on his shoulder this season and wouldn't be surprised if the Steelers won outright

I just really like the hire here of Bruce Arians and believe he will make a ton of difference as we saw first hand in Arizona.  He can and will handle Winston and make him a better QB by cutting down on those turnovers.  I t the Bucs wi be a competitive team and it’s not like they don’t have any weapons around him.  49ers are a team that seems to get love with Jimmy under the helm but I’m just not sold.  He hasnt looked anything special this preseason.  I definitely think this line rises.  The only thing the Niners really have going for them in this situation is the later start.  I just believe we see a much improved Bucs team 

This is my favorite NFL play of the week.  If you have listened to my NFL win totals podcast you know I am down on the Rams this season.  I just don't think the Rams can repeat the season they had and I think Carolina will have a major bounce back.  The Panthers were rolling last season before Newton went down.  The defense for the Rams will take a step back this season and Carolina's offense will be even better now all healthy.  I think the wrong team is favored here in this game

I didn't think we would see this line drop so much.  I have to take Miami here now.  So UNC beat a South Carolina that was clearly over valued.  So give UNC some credit yes, but this line preseason would have been around the 10 range so clear value with Miami just based on 1 game.  We saw UNC celebrating like they won the ACC and Coach Brown was even crying.  I think Miami has a legit defense and Howell won't have as easy of time with this Miami team.  Also worth mentioning Miami is coming off a bye as well

I had this Tulane team in week 1 vs FIU and it was an easy winner as they dominated from the get go.  Tulane racked up nearly 500 total yards of offense.  Their game is clearly played on the ground  and I think they can move the ball on Auburn.  We saw a lucky Auburn team come back and somehow cover that game against Oregon as they covered for in the final minute of the game.  This is a major letdown here for Auburn IMO and doubt they will be really motivated here coming off that win.  

So Texas St was probably in over their heads in week 1 against a very good Texas AM squad.  I think this week sets up perfect for them to grab a win.  Even if they don't pull the upset I think very good chance they keep within a TD.  Wyoming coming off a huge win for them over Missouri but they were completely out played in that game but the ball literally bounced their way.  The Cowboys weren't a team that was expected to do anything this season and now it seems like a lot of respect given their way because of that win

The wrong team is simply favored here in this game.  SMU is getting a lot of credit for winning on the road at Arkansas St.  Arkansas St is facing an uphill battle this season as they are dealing with the death of the coaches wife.  SMU was +2 in the turnover and still only won a by a touchdown.  Also I love Fine , the QB for North Texas here and while some might say revenge here, NT blew them out of the water as only 3 point favorites.  I think they win this outright as well

I think this line is pretty short here all things considered.  UCLA was a 2.5-3 point dog @ Cincy a very well respected non power 5 team which means they would have been a 3 point favorite at home over them.  Well based on that performance we are seeing IMO another overreaction in the line here.  SDSU is only 4 point difference?  UCLA had a lot of bad momentum swings in that Cincy and 2 turnovers were simply because the QB dropped the ball.  I think they take care of business here and blow out this SDSU team who struggled with Weber St last week winning 6-0

Call me a sucker here but I will roll with Nebraska.  I think this is way too much an overreaction from last week.  Yes, the cornhuskers looked terrible on offense but I have to believe that part of that is because Frost didn't really want to show anything.  This is also the ultimate revenge spot here with Colorado coming into Lincoln last year and winning.

Colorado's defense was very poor against a bad Colorado St team.  They gave up over 500 total yards of offense which has to be a concern.  I think Nebraska can control the game and we see a whole different team from last week

I like this Maryland team here and a large part of that is because of Va Tech transfer QB in Jackson.  Maryland granted they played Howard, but they did score 79 points which is impressive.  Also a thing you look at is when a road ranked team is a dog to an unranked team.  If you just back that spot blindly over the years you would be extremely profitable.  Cuse is clearly down from that 10 win season last year and are struggling on offense and still are getting credit from that season

I was really impressed with Wake Forest even though I got bit buy the hook as they won by 3 over Utah St but not covering.  Wake put up nearly 600 yards of offense in this game and now face a very bad Rice team. Rice were 23 point dogs to Army last week and covered only losing by 7.  They are getting some respect because of that.  I just think that Wake will put up big numbers and name their score here.  

I'm not sold on this Texas team this season and think they will have their hands full here.  I think people are giving them a ton of credit for beating Georgia in the bowl.  The major concern is with the defense in this game only returning 3 starters from a flat out terrible defense especially against the pass.  

With a veteran QB in Smith for the Bulldogs I expect them to put up some points on that Texas D.  This LA Tech team went on the road @ LSU last season and only lost by 17.  I don't see them being caught up in the moment here @ Texas in a night game.  Will take my chances with the veteran LA Tech offense vs the new Texas D.

I think this Virginia team has high hope this season to represent the Coastal to play Clemson for the ACC Title.  They have 14 starters back from a team that went 8-5 last year.  They could have easily won 9 in the regular season losing the last two games both in OT.  Their worst performance last season was at home vs this Pitt team and I guarantee they want that revenge.  Virginia returns 8 guys on defense  that was a top 20 unit.  

Pitt only returns 11 total starters  They were an average defense last year and below average on offense.  Even though they are at home I don't think Virginia's D will have any trouble shutting them down.  Pitt has been so one dimensional and I think we see a step back here from a team believe it or not played for the ACC title last season

I will admit little bummed I missed out on a better number here but I just can't ignore what I see on paper.  I think North Carolina is in for another brutal season.  This team only won two games last season and have a very inexperienced from 7 on defense which I think will hurt them big time.  I

South Carolina is a team that I think can surprise in the SEC East this season.  QB Jake Bentley is surrounded by solid weapons.  Their defense will improve a Toni because they were so young last season and also now are healthy.  The talent gap between these two teams are huge.  I think the Gamecocks roll UNC.  The Mack Brown experiment is soon to be over.

I think FSU is due for a prime bounce back year obviously.  They have Briles in @ OC now and that is a huge addition to this offense as he has had a lot of success everywhere he has been.  FSU by far has the better athletes and now in year 2 of Taggart you have to expect a major step forward. 

Even though Boise is now a house hold name and probably the best team in the Mountain West I think they will take a step back compared to most years.  They have to replace their all do everything in Rypien at QB.  While I'm not saying Boise isn't going to be good I just think they are out matched here and running into a very hungry team to start the season

I think Toledo is worth a look at this underdog price.  The Rockets will be the best team in the MAC.  They return 6 starters from an explosive offense and even though they lost some skilled players at WR, I think the return of QB Guadagni will provide the leadership to this team again.  

Kentucky is a team coming off a remarkable season going 11-2.  They just simply can't repeat that because they have lost so much especially on defense.  Their secondary is all new and they had to replace their stud LB Allen.  With only 4 starters back on that side of the ball, I think Toledo can move it down the field and score some points.  Also Kentucky their lost stud RB Snell to the draft as well.  For a team not use to having that much talent it's very hard for them to replace. 

I'm not calling for the upset but I don't see Toledo getting blown out here

I like this Wake Forest team this season with 13 returning starters and are coming off a nice bowl win over Memphis.  On offense I this team will still be solid as most people wouldn't have guessed but they finished ranked 28 total last year.  Defense is where they need to improve especially right away given the fact they are healthy.  

I think we see a step back here from Utah St.  Yes, they return their stud QB Love who is fun to watch, but he will have to carry the load the whole time and I don't see that happening as its just him with one other starter on offense.  I also think they are getting a little to much love because of their year last season that they went 11-2.  It's going to be an uphill battle for Utah St.

Rutgers won 1 game last year and it was their first and proceeded to lose 11 straight after that.  They did play well at the end of the season covering 5 straight games.  They return freshman QB Sitkowski who I think will make a nice step forward under 2nd year OC McNulty.  Umass though I expect to be just a bad team this season.  They return a total of 8 starters here and only 3 on defense that was horrible and gave up nearly 43 ppg.  Rutgers will score point here and look for Rutgers to be a nice ATS team this season

While FIU is coming off a very good season going 9-3 and they do return their leader Morgan @ QB. While FIU will be good on offense I think Tulane returning 8 starters will be able to slow them down and be much improved on that side of the ball.  The main key here though is that Tulane can run it down your throat.  They had a top 25 rushing attack last season and will again this season.  FIU only returns 3 of the front 7 and they struggled big time against the run last season and clearly they will again IMO.  

Here is another game where I think the public will be all over the dog.  The Rams werent a great team ATS this season, but they were 7-1 at home.  The Cowboys were terrible on the road with a 3-5 record and that is counting a lucky comeback against the Giants in the final game.  The Rams defense will have their way with Dak and shut Zeke down.  

I actually think the betting public is on the Colts here.  The Chiefs haven't been covering recently and a large part was because of the Hunt situation.  I just think Mahomes and company with an extra week will get it done.  I know Reid hasn't been great in the playoffs but this is also his first time with a QB like Mahomes.  The betting public loved the Colts last week and cashed and will be on them again.  I think KC wins easily

With this number dropping I have to take Bama.  I think people are quick to forget since Bama didn’t cover vs Oklahoma that they were up 28-0 and went very conservative as they had the game in wraps early.  Clemson hasn’t seen a team like this Bama squad.  

I like the Texans here.  I think the public love the Colts more because they remember them beating the Texans @ Houston.  I just think the Texans will shut down the Colts run game and force Luck with throw 35+ times which means a couple turnovers will likely happen.  Texans will make them pay and at this price we aren't covering a number just winning the game 

Grabbed this one and really like Ohio St.  First, Washington hasn't live up to expectations this year and the PAC 12 was really a down conference this season.  The main factor here though is all motivation.  Ohio St will want to win this one for Meyer as he is stepping down after this game.  I think Ohio St gets on them early never lets up.

I just think Kentucky was a fraud all season long.  This team can seriously only run the ball and with a lot of time to prepare for it I think Penn St can shut it down.  Penn St has the better athletes and coach.  I actually think they will be motivated here for this game.  I will gladly lay this number

I dont think Iowa has a chance in this game.  When you look back at Iowa you realize they beat zero good teams.  This is a total mis match IMO and Miss St will be able to shut down the very one dimensional Iowa team.  Also Iowa is without their best offensive player who happens to play TE.  I think Miss St puts a number on them 

I like the Aggies here for the sure fact that they have a ton more talent here.  The Aggies finished the season by beating LSU and I think under first year head coach Jimbo Fisher they will be excited here.  NC ST had a pretty easy schedule and I dont think Finley their QB is anything special at all.  This could get ugly

This is just too many points for a NW team who will be fired up for this game.  They had a great year making to the Big Ten Championship.  Utah is getting their QB back here for this game but these teams are so very similar that I dont see a blowout happening.   

All I have heard is how good MSU is in the dog role.  I just think that this Oregon will be ultra motivated here with their stud QB Herbert coming back next season.  Michigan St has some major issues on offense as they had scored 24,6,6,14 to finish the season.  Oregon is a lot better than people actually think and with this low spread they take care of business. 

I see no interest whatsoever from the Bears in this spot.  They already will host a home playoff game next week and it will be against the Vikings.  Their main concern will be keeping Trubisky healthy which means a very conservative game plan and I wouldn't be surprised to see him being pulled.  Vikings have all the motivation here with a win and their in.  I think they roll Chicago

I think the betting public will be all over the Browns here.  While, I do love Baker and the Browns next year I just think they are in over their heads here.  During this nice run by the Browns they have only played 2 playoff teams and lost both by double digits.  Baltimore defense is just nasty as we saw them shut down the Chargers.  I think they get to Baker cause some turnovers and control the clock.

I grabbed this line early and no surprise it has climbed a lot.  Buffalo is a team that is still playing very hard evidence last week even though they aren't in the mix for anything.  Josh Allen provides a spark for them and their defense at home is flat out nasty. They also for sure have revenge on their minds here as they let one slip away in Miami just a few weeks ago in which they dominated the stats.

I think the odds makers have made a mistake here in this game.  This game still means something for the Texans as they want to win the division.  Also at risk is a first round home game which they want so the effort level will be at an all time high.  Jags are done plain and simple and I dont think they show up even with Bortles who lead them to a win last week

This is just too many points here for the Patriots especially given the fact that the total is 46.  If the Jets can score 14 which I think they will they can cover this number.  The Patriots just want to get the game over with a come away with a win.  The division is wrapped up.  Darnold is playing well for the Jets I still think we get a good effort from them

This is just a ton of points of here.  I know Bama is the real deal but I also know how they looked without a healthy Tua.  Clearly Bama has more talent and is better coached no denying that, but for them to cover two touchdowns.  I just think Oklahoma can get a few stops and Oklahoma with Murray will give them all they want on defense.  Murray is just a special player you dont see come around often and I trust him to keep this close

I like Florida here today playing in their home state.  This is just a pure motivation game.  Michigan had their dreams crushed when they were blown out vs Ohio St.  They had hopes of playing for a National Title, but that isn't the case now.  They are missing several key starters here who are sitting out.  Florida does have a defense and with some guys out on Michigan's defense I think Florida can do just enough to get bye

This game just simply means more to Iowa St who some would say this is their best bowl game ever.  This program has taken a turn for the better under Campbell.  Washington St on the other hand had their dreams crushed as they were alive for the Playoffs and lost to their rival Washington and now are playing here.  Good bowl yes, but not what they had hoped for.  Also Iowas St has faced teams like them all year long in the Big 12 with the pass happy offenses.

I really like Cuse here and all the motivation clearly lies with them.  They are looking to finish their on a very high note while WVU has simply no motivation as their leader and starting QB Will Grier has decided to skip the game and go pro.  WVU will fold here. 

So I think the wrong team is favored here in this game.  The Badgers had a down year there is no taking that away from them, but does Miami have the motivation edge for a a bowl game played in New York?  I sure dont think so at all.  The fact that Hornibrook is out I actually think is better as he really hurt them based on his health.  The Badgers will win this game on the ground and I wouldn't be surprised if it got ugly.

Not much crazy in depth here, but I just trust Duke here coming from the ACC.  The talent gap is on their side here as well.  They have the better coach and will also have a lot bigger fan base traveling to Louisiana for this game.

I like the Raiders here tonight to get the job done.  This is a unique situation where this could be the last game ever in their stadium that has a very passionate fan base.  With that being on everyone's mind I think we get the max effort here.  The Raiders are playing tough covering 4 of their last 5 games.  With revenge on their mind here from a 1 point loss earlier I think Oakland gets it done tonight.  

I really like the Seahawks here are can clinch a spot in the playoffs for sure even though they will be in either way.  Seattle and Wilson have been a great home dog over the years and in a prime time game you have to take them.  Ever since the hunt issue came along the Chiefs haven't covered a game without him and in fact the Chiefs haven't covered since the first week of November.  Say what you want about KC being up a lot and teams racking up yards, but this defense doesnt pass the eye test at all.  Seattle will control the game with long drives and scores and will win this game

Yes, I know the 49ers line has been adjusted here from the previous weeks, but they are playing with a ton of confidence right now.  While the Bears have been a surprise this season I think they come in this game with no care in the world after they just won their division for the first time in a while.  This is a perfect flat spot for them coming off that hard fought division game vs the Packers with another division game on deck @ Minnesota.  I know the Niners will play hard and at this home dog price again will take them

I will take the Dolphins here as I just think odds makers are off on this one.  I think last week was a pretty big indication of were the Jags players heads are.  They laid an egg to a team that had to sign a 4th QB and he hadn't played in the NFL for quite some time.  The Dolphins have been a very good home team and are still in playoff contention.  I think they show up against a Jags team that has packed it in

Maybe I am a prisoner of the moment here with the Eagles, but this team is clearly better with Foles at QB as a hurt Wentz literally hurt this team by playing.  Eagles now have all the motivation in the world here coming off that big win.  I know people will say the Texans are motivated but they are basically in the playoffs.  They will be without Miller tomorrow which is a huge loss for their running game. Eagles defense is playing well and they have a major home field advantage.

I will admit I took a flyer on this game based on I thought it was a high chance that Rodgers doesn't play.  Well, he is playing and thats fine.  I got a bad price but do you really want the Packers here who haven't won a road game all season?  The Jets could have beat the Texans last week who had a lot of motivation.  Why can't they beat an overrated Packer team?  

To me all the motivation here sides with UAB.  Remember this was a school a few years ago that took their program away.  They really want this game IMO as this would be a school record 11 wins.  Also I think Northern Illinois already had their Super Bowl by coming back and beating Buffalo to win the MAC.  I also just think that UAB has the better athletes, played a lot tougher schedule and will have no problem scoring 

All I have heard all week long is everything regarding the Patriots. It seriously has been Patriots this Patriots that.  I also think people are forgetting how bad New England has looked on the road this season.  I know last week was a weird loss but they got torched by Miami.  While Pitt isn't world beaters I get it, but New England isn't the same team we are custom to seeing either.  This is the Patriots 4th road game in 5 weeks.  They still have their division wrapped up and the Steelers season is on the line.  They wont have a problem scoring

How much interest do the Seahawks really have in this game?  They all but locked up a spot in the playoffs and are coming off an hard fought game even though the final score may not indicate that.  I just think last weeks results for San Fran transfer over here as they just lost to this Seahawk team a couple weeks ago.  That game was also misleading in the fact San Fran put up over 400 yards but the 3 turnovers were the difference.

This is just a great spot here to back the Colts.  Dallas is coming off a very emotional win in OT against the Eagles giving them the division win.  Dallas won't be getting a first round bye so throw that motivation out.  Also this game means a ton to Indy as they are fighting for their playoff lives.  Indy has won 6 of their last 7 but since Dallas has covered 5 straight and are a public team the squares will be all over them.  Luck has an O line that protects and will pick apart an overrated Cowboy secondary 

I like this Bills team here.  Last week they dominated the Jets but not in the final score.  They have had several misleading game like that over the season.  This team is just so much better with Allen at QB.  Buffalo has only allowed one team in the last 6 weeks rush for over 100 yards.  Lions will struggle in that area with Johnson out.  Stafford I also dont trust here going across country now to the cold having to throw it a lot this game.  Buffalo will create turnovers and put Detroit away 

I will take my chances here with the Giants who believe it or not still have a shot at the playoffs.  This team hasn't gave up on the season winning 4 of their last 5 games.  The Titans have struggled on the road with a 2-5 record.  While the loss of OBJ does hurt in some ways I think its relieve for the Giants as he can be a major distraction if things arent his way from the get go. 

The rare combo of a father-son coach QB duo.  Well we have that here with Mid Tenn St and while they may not win the game you for sure know the effort will be there given that fact alone.  Mid Tenn also played a lot tougher schedule which helps them a ton in this spot.  Also App St lost their coach which sets up for a tough situation 

We have a Mountain West school vs Pac 12 in a good match up.  I just think Fresno is much better despite being from the so called lesser conference since they are non power 5.  I know people are going to make the case that ASU had a lot of close losses, but the PAC 12 was down big time this year and they had a miracle come back to beat their rival Arizona.  Fresno St is no joke with their two losses being on the road @ Minnesota which they should have won and @ Boise, but they got that revenge in the MWC Title game.  ASU will miss their stud WR here as well

This play here is pretty simple for reasoning.  Utah St had a good year but ended up coming short in making the Mountain West Conference Championship game which they had their sites on.  Now with what has taken place with all the coaching changes I just dont see it working out in a positive way.  

I really like the Niners here catching 4.  Last weeks result was very misleading as they actually out gained Seattle in that despite losing by double digits.  They will also get back Garcon and Goodwin who are their 2 best WR's.  Denver had a cupcake game beating a terrible Cincy team who has gave up on the year.  Denver lost Sanders their best WR this week and also Harris their best secondary player.  I think Niners are a live dog 

I will roll with the Ravens here.  I just think the betting public will still be all over KC, but are failing to realize how important Hunt was to that dynamic offense.  The Chiefs clearly missed him last week as they struggled against Oakland.  The Chiefs defense isn't great and Jackson now at QB can control the game with his legs.  The Ravens number 1 defense is something special and I expect a few turnovers from Mahomes.

This Bills team has been very undervalued here as of late.  This team simply has got a bad rap because they had maybe the worst QB ever in Peterman for several weeks.  Well, now they have their rookie QB Allen healthy and are playing well.  Darnold is coming back but is he 100% healthy here against a very good defense.  I just think Buaffalo is very undervalued 

I like Miami here in this division rival game.  They have beat the Patriots 4 of the last 5 years.  I also think New England has been pretty fortunate on the road.  So they had two very lucky covers against the Bills and Jets both who are worse than Miami.  The Dolphins will be motivated as they are battling for a wild card spot.  I just think the Dolphins D can keep it within double digits here

To me its been pretty clear that Rodgers hasn't really tried much and got the wish he wanted which was the firing of their coach.  Now, I think we see Rodgers give a good effort with him gone.  Throw in the fact that the Falcons are just bad and their defense is really bad.  This is also a dome/warm weather team playing in some tough conditions.  I think Rodgers rallies the rest of the guys and they win easily

It’s fair to say that both teams season is on the line tonight.  I just really like the spot here for Washington who has had a ton of time of not playing since Thanksgiving.  That loss @ Dallas doesn’t look so bad and they were in that game.  The Eagles aecondsry isn’t getting any healthier and this team struggles to score more than 20 points.  With those two things in a division rivalry I will take the points

I will take the Steelers here as just a field goal.  Pitt was a part of one of the most misleading games of the year last week as they dominated the Broncos every way possible but the scoreboard.  They were down 4-0 in turnovers and still had a chance to take the game into OT. While the Chargers are a good football team I think their record is a little inflated because they have played a pretty soft schedule.  Also this is a warm weather team traveling north which is a spot I always look for.

Anytime in December you can lay less than a TD at home with Brady and company you have to take it.  With that being said this line does smell a little bit as they know a lot of people will be jumping on board New England here.  Odds Makers are saying that the Patriots are only 1 to 1.5 point favorite on a neutral?  I'm not buying that.

I'm going to take the Browns here as this team isn't throwing in the towel even though they likely aren't making the playoffs.  They have won back to back games now and I believe they match up very well with the Texans.  

The Texans were lucky last week IMO as Vrabel made a bad decision to go for it on 4th and 1 on at 3 and get stopped.  The next play Houston scores on a 97 yard TD run.  That took all the wind out of their sails as a huge momentum shift.  I also think this is a different spot here for Houston on a short week and they have the Colts on deck which ultimately will decide the division winner.   

I think its safe to say Ohio St played a lot of this season pretty much not interested simply because of their schedule.  Well last week the sleeping giant woke up and I had them in an easy winner over their rival Michigan.  The talent gap here is huge and the fact this this is played indoor on turf only benefits Ohio St.  Also they really need to impress the committee and I think they just put it in Northwestern 

I'm going with Memphis here in this game.  We all are aware of what took place with UCF stud QB Milton.  That is just a devastating loss for a team like UCF who was looking to make it back to back years without losing a game.  Memphis let the first game slip by this year losing by 1 despite being up by 13 at half.  I think they get their revenge here 

I will take Oklahoma in the ultimate revenge game here.  Yes, I know their defense isn't great everyone knows that, but I think they can create a couple key turnovers and get a lead which will be hard for Texas to comeback on.  Texas QB isn't 100% healthy either.  The most important thing here though is that Oklahoma wants to make a statement to be in the playoffs and I think they do exactly that.

I really like this game tonight for Washington.  The Huskies have been a terrible team ATS this season going just 3-9.  The thing here though is that these teams already met and Utah was in a good spot and failed to show up at home vs Washington.  They lost that game 21-7.  So yes, the line has been adjusted some here but now Utah is without their QB and RB for this game.  I want no part of Utah and Washington rolls

I will take the Titans here as I think the Texans are simply the luckiest team in the league right now.  I won't go through every game but this team could easily be below .500 and for those who have watched them you know what I'm talking about.  Yes, they have the revenge angle here, but the Titans are a legit team under Vrabel.  I think the Titans defense will create some pressure and turnovers and I wouldn't be surprised if they won this game outright

I really believe this is the perfect spot to back the Vikings following last weeks game @ Chicago.  Odds makers are suggesting that these two teams are even on a neutral field and no way I am buying that.  I think the defense on Minnesota really steps up here.  Remember earlier in the season this games ended in a tie but the Vikings were 1.5 point favorites saying that then they were 7.5 point at home so this is an extreme discount here

I had the Colts last week as an easy winner, but now odds makers are adjusting way too much here.  The Dolphins still have a ton to play for as well as they are fighting for the playoffs.  They also are coming off their bye week which only helps.  I do this Colts team but the number itself has gotten out of hand.  

I know this one might be hard to swallow but I really like Buffalo tomorrow.  I think the Bills are getting a bad rap here because of the Peterman playing and boy was he awful.   Well Josh Allen returns here and remember this Bills team with him won @ the Vikings.  I think after the crushing lost last week to Pitt blowing that game the Jags season is over as they are a mess.  Bills have the 2nd ranked defense in the league as well

Well I know the Giants have only beat the Bucs and Niners off their bye week, but that only gives them confidence to continue this run and make the post season since no one is running away with this division.  The Eagles just aren't what everyone thought they would be coming off the Super Bowl win.  Their defense especially their secondary has really struggled and that is where I see the Giants exposing them with their play makers.  Division game and season on the line this is too many points

Let me say I know Oakland is bad.  I just think this is way too many points for a Ravens team to be laying who really struggles to score in the 20's.  They have only scored more than 24 once in the past 6 weeks.  I think can score at least a couple times and keep it within the number here.  We saw a Raider team most had written off go on the road and win so they are't throwing in the towel quite yet